WorldWideScience

Sample records for safety decision-making problem

  1. Problems of making decisions with account of risk and safety factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larichev, O I

    1987-01-01

    New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis.

  2. Problems of making decisions with account of risk and safety factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larichev, O.I.

    1987-01-01

    New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis

  3. Impediments for the application of risk-informed decision making in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahn, L.

    2001-01-01

    A broad application of risk-informed decision making in the regulation of safety of nuclear power plants is hindered by the lack of quantitative risk and safety standards as well as of precise instruments to demonstrate an appropriate safety. An additional severe problem is associated with the difficulty to harmonize deterministic design requirements and probabilistic safety assessment. The problem is strengthened by the vulnerability of PSA for subjective influences and the potential of misuse. Beside this scepticism the nuclear community is encouraged to intensify the efforts to improve the quality standards for probabilistic safety assessments and their quality assurance. A prerequisite for reliable risk-informed decision making processes is also a well-defined and transparent relationship between deterministic and probabilistic safety approaches. (author)

  4. Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)

  5. Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

    2014-04-01

    Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

  6. Decision-Making Styles and Problem-Solving Appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Compared decision-making style and problem-solving appraisal in 243 undergraduates. Results suggested that individuals who employ rational decision-making strategies approach problematic situations, while individuals who endorse dependent decisional strategies approach problematic situations without confidence in their problem-solving abilities.…

  7. Safety assessment as basis for the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilie, P.; Didita, L.; Danchiv, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the safety assessment for a new near surface repository, particularly for the early stage of repository development using ISAM (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities) safety assessment methodology. In this stage of the repository life cycle the main purpose of the safety assessment is to demonstrate that the plant is capable to be constructed and operated safely. The paper is based on development of the ASAM (Application of the Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near-Surface Disposal Facilities) Decision Support Subgroup of the Common Aspects Working Group. The implications of decision making for the application of the ISAM methodology on post-closure safety assessment are analysed. Some important elements of the decision-making process with impact on key components of the ISAM process are described. Following the development of Decision Support Subgroup of the ASAM Common Aspects Working Group the proposed change of ISAM methodology is analysed. This approach puts all activities in a decision context where the first iteration of the safety assessment is based on the existing state of knowledge and the initial engineering design. Confidence in the process is accomplished through the direct inclusion of all decision makers and stakeholders in the formulation of decisions, the definition of the state of knowledge, and decision making activities. The decision process is developed in context of undertaking assessments with little site-specific information, this situation is specifically for new planned repository. Limited site-specific information can result in a high degree of uncertainty, therefore it is important first of all to identify the sources of uncertainty arising from the limited nature of the site-specific information and then to apply appropriate approaches to manage the uncertainties and to determine whether the uncertainties are important to the overall safety of the disposal facility

  8. Safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise based on the relative entropy aggregation in group decision making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jun; Li, Chengbing; Huo, Yueying

    2014-01-01

    Safety of dangerous goods transport is directly related to the operation safety of dangerous goods transport enterprise. Aiming at the problem of the high accident rate and large harm in dangerous goods logistics transportation, this paper took the group decision making problem based on integration and coordination thought into a multiagent multiobjective group decision making problem; a secondary decision model was established and applied to the safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise. First of all, we used dynamic multivalue background and entropy theory building the first level multiobjective decision model. Secondly, experts were to empower according to the principle of clustering analysis, and combining with the relative entropy theory to establish a secondary rally optimization model based on relative entropy in group decision making, and discuss the solution of the model. Then, after investigation and analysis, we establish the dangerous goods transport enterprise safety evaluation index system. Finally, case analysis to five dangerous goods transport enterprises in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region validates the feasibility and effectiveness of this model for dangerous goods transport enterprise recognition, which provides vital decision making basis for recognizing the dangerous goods transport enterprises.

  9. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-11-01

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  10. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  11. The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

    2016-01-01

    This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

  12. Beyond Decision Making for Outdoor Leaders: Expanding the Safety Behavior Research Agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jeff S.

    2016-01-01

    The study of safety behaviour of designated outdoor leaders primarily revolves around their decision making and judgement. The last ten years, however, have seen relatively little peer-reviewed research regarding guide or instructor safety cognition and behaviour. The narrow decision making focus of modern work makes for a field of study…

  13. Utility Function for modeling Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti

    2016-01-01

    To assist in the decision making process, several multicriteria methods have been proposed. However, the existing methods assume a single decision-maker and do not consider decision under risk, which is better addressed by Game Theory. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a Utility Function that makes it possible to model Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games. The advantage of using Game Theory for solving Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems is to evaluate th...

  14. Application of Mixed Group Decision Making to Safety Evaluation of Agricultural Products

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    In view of the gravity of issues concerning safety of agricultural products and urgency of resolving these issues,after analyzing the problems existing in safety of agricultural products,this article offers a method for evaluating safety of agricultural products on the basis of mixed group decision making.First of all,it introduces the factors influencing safety evaluation of agricultural products;subsequently,given that the judgment matrices offered by the group of experts contain both reciprocal and complementary judgment matrices in the process of jointly participating in evaluation arising from personal preference,it proposes to assemble expert information in order to obtain indicator weight using the OWA operator;finally,the process of evaluating safety of agricultural products is given.

  15. Safety-related decision making at a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1998-01-01

    The decision making environment of an operating nuclear power plant is presented. The organizations involved, their roles and interactions as well as the main influencing factors and decision criteria are described. The focus is on safety-related decisions, and the framework is based on the situation at Loviisa power station. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is illustrated with decisions concerning plant modifications, optimization, acceptance of temporary configurations and extended repair times. Suggestions are made for rational and flexible risk-based control of allowed times to operate the plant with some components out of service. (orig.)

  16. [Patient expectations about decision-making for various health problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Ana; López-Fernández, Luis Andrés; de Dios Luna, Juan; Saletti Cuesta, Lorena; Gil Garrido, Natalia; Puga González, Almudena

    2010-01-01

    To identify patient expectations of clinical decision-making at consultations with their general practitioners for distinct health problems and to determine the patient and general practitioner characteristics related to these expectations, with special focus on gender. We performed a multicenter cross-sectional study in 360 patients who were interviewed at home. Data on patients' sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and satisfaction were gathered. General practitioners supplied information on their gender and postgraduate training in family medicine. A questionnaire was used to collect data on patients' expectations that their general practitioner account of their opinion and on expectations of clinical decision making> at consultations with their general practitioner for five problems or hypothetical clinical scenarios (strong chest pain/cold with fever/abnormal discharge/depression or sadness/severe family problem). Patients were asked to indicate their preference that decisions on diagnosis and treatment be taken by: a) the general practitioner alone; b) the general practitioner, taking account of the patient's opinion; c) the patient, taking account of the general practitioner's opinion and d) the patient alone. A logistic regression was performed for clinical decision-making. The response rate was 90%. The mean age was 47.3 + or - 16.5 years and 51% were female. Patients' expectations that their general practitioner listen, explain and take account of their opinions were higher than their expectations of participating in decision-making, depending on the problem in question: 32% wished to participate in chest pain and 49% in family problems. Women had lower expectations of participating in depression and family problems. Patients with female general practitioners had higher expectations of participating in family problems and colds. Most patients wished to be listened to, informed and taken into account by their general practitioners and, to a lesser

  17. Selection of tolerable risk criteria for dam safety decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, N.M.; Hartford, D.N.D.; MacDonald, T.F.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment has received increasing attention in recent years as a means of aiding decision making on dams by providing systematic and rational methods for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Risk assessment is controversial and decisions affecting risk to life are the most controversial. Tolerable criteria, based on the risks that society is prepared to accept in order to avoid excessive costs, set bounds within which risk-based decisions may be made. The components of risk associated with dam safety are addressed on an individual basis and criteria established for each component, thereby permitting flexibility in the balance between component risk and avoiding the problems of placing a monetary value on life. The guiding principle of individual risk is that dams do not impose intolerable risks on any individual. A risk to life of 1 in 10 4 per annum is generally considered the maximum tolerable risk. When considering societal risk, the safety of a dam should be proportional to the consequences of its failure. Risks of financial losses beyond the corporation's ability to finance should be so low as to be considered negligible. 17 refs., 3 figs

  18. Risk perception, safety goals and regulatory decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoegberg, Lars

    1998-01-01

    Deciding on 'how safe is safe enough?' includes value judgements with implications of an ethical and political nature. As regulators are accountable to governments, parliaments and the general public, regulatory decision-making should be characterized by transparency with respect to how such value judgements are reflected in risk assessments and regulatory decisions. Some approaches in this respect are discussed in the paper, based on more than fifteen years of experience in nuclear regulatory decision-making. Issues discussed include: (1) risk profiles and safety goals associated with severe reactor accidents--individual health risks, societal risks and risk of losing investments; (2) risk profile-based licensing of the Swedish SFR final disposal facility for low and intermediate level radioactive waste

  19. Needs for evidence-based road safety decision making in Europe.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupont, E. Muhlrad, N. Buttler, I. Gitelman, V. Giustiniani, G. Jähi, H. Machata, K. Martensen, H. Papadimitriou, E. Persia, L. Talbot, R. Vallet, G. Wijnen, W. & Yannis, G.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this research is the assessment of current needs for evidence-based road safety decision making in Europe, through the consultation of a panel of road safety experts. The members of this Experts Panel have extensive knowledge of road safety management processes and needs in their

  20. Risk concepts in UK nuclear safety decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brighton, P.W.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the concept of risk as understood in the UK, with particular reference to the use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in nuclear safety decision making. The way 'risk' appears in UK fundamental legislation means that the concept cannot be limited to evaluation of numerical probabilities of physical harm. Rather the focus is on doing all that is reasonably practicable to reduce risks: this entails applying relevant good practice and then seeking further safety measures until the money, time and trouble required are grossly disproportionate to the residual risk. PSA is used to inform rather than dictate such decisions. This approach is reinforced by considering how far any practical PSA can be said to measure risk. The behaviour of complex socio-technical systems such as nuclear power stations does not meet the conditions under which probability theory can be applied in an absolutely objective statistical sense. Risk is not an intrinsic real property of such systems. Rather PSA is a synthesis of data and subjective expert judgements, dependent on the extent of detailed knowledge of the plant. There are many other aspects of engineering judgement involved in safety decisions which cannot be so captured. (author)

  1. Direct Tests on Individual Behaviour in Small Decision-Making Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takemi Fujikawa

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an empirical and experimental analysis of individual decision making in small decision-making problems with a series of laboratory experiments. Two experimental treatments with binary small decision-making problems are implemented: (1 the search treatment with the unknown payoff distribution to the decision makers and (2 the choice treatment with the known payoff distribution. A first observation is that in the search treatment the tendency to select best reply to the past performances, and misestimation of the payoff distribution can lead to robust deviations from expected value maximisation. A second observation is concerned with choice problems with two options with the same expected value: one option is more risky with larger payoff variability; the other option is moderate with less payoff variability. Experimental results show that it is likely that the more the decision makers choose a risky option, the higher they can achieve high points, ex post. Finally, I investigate the exploration tendency. Comparison of results between the search treatment and the choice treatment reveals that the additional information to the decision makers enhances expected value maximisation.

  2. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  3. Shared decision-making during surgical consultation for gallstones at a safety-net hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueck, Krislynn M; Leal, Isabel M; Wan, Charlie C; Goldberg, Braden F; Saunders, Tamara E; Millas, Stefanos G; Liang, Mike K; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S

    2018-04-01

    Understanding patient perspectives regarding shared decision-making is crucial to providing informed, patient-centered care. Little is known about perceptions of vulnerable patients regarding shared decision-making during surgical consultation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a validated tool reflects perceptions of shared decision-making accurately among patients seeking surgical consultation for gallstones at a safety-net hospital. A mixed methods study was conducted in a sample of adult patients with gallstones evaluated at a safety-net surgery clinic between May to July 2016. Semi-structured interviews were conducted after their initial surgical consultation and analyzed for emerging themes. Patients were administered the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire and Autonomy Preference Scale. Univariate analyses were performed to identify factors associated with shared decision-making and to compare the results of the surveys to those of the interviews. The majority of patients (N = 30) were female (90%), Hispanic (80%), Spanish-speaking (70%), and middle-aged (45.7 ± 16 years). The proportion of patients who perceived shared decision-making was greater in the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire versus the interviews (83% vs 27%, P decision for operation was not associated with shared decision-making. Contributory factors to this discordance include patient unfamiliarity with shared decision-making, deference to surgeon authority, lack of discussion about different treatments, and confusion between aligned versus shared decisions. Available questionnaires may overestimate shared decision-making in vulnerable patients suggesting the need for alternative or modifications to existing methods. Furthermore, such metrics should be assessed for correlation with patient-reported outcomes, such as satisfaction with decisions and health status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Expert Team Decision-Making and Problem Solving: Development and Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Tancig

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditional research of decision-making has not significantly contributed towards better understanding of professional judgment and decisions in practice. Researchers dealing with decision-making in various professions and natural settings initiated new perspectives called naturalistic, which put the expert in the focus of research and the expertise thus entered the core of decision-making research in natural situations.Expert team is more than a group of experts. It is defined as a group of interdependent team members with a high level of task related expertise and the mastering of team processes.There have been several advances in understanding of expertise and the team. By combining theories, models, and empirical evidence we are trying to explain effectiveness and adaptation of expert teams in problem-solving and decision-making in complex and dynamic situations.A considerable research has been devoted to finding out what are the characteristics of experts and expert teams during their optimal functioning. These characteristics are discussed as input, process and output factors. As input variables the cognitive, social-affective, and motivational characteristics are presented. Process variables encompass individual and team learning, problem solving and decision-making as presented in Kolb’s cycle of learning, in deeper structures of dialogue and discussion, and in phenomena of collaboration, alignment, and distributed cognition. Outcome variables deal with task performance – activities.

  5. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  6. Heuristic Method for Decision-Making in Common Scheduling Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Kucharska

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to present a heuristic method for decision-making regarding an NP-hard scheduling problem with limitations related to tasks and the resources dependent on the current state of the process. The presented approach is based on the algebraic-logical meta-model (ALMM, which enables making collective decisions in successive process stages, not separately for individual objects or executors. Moreover, taking into account the limitations of the problem, it involves constructing only an acceptable solution and significantly reduces the amount of calculations. A general algorithm based on the presented method is composed of the following elements: preliminary analysis of the problem, techniques for the choice of decision at a given state, the pruning non-perspective trajectory, selection technique of the initial state for the trajectory final part, and the trajectory generation parameters modification. The paper includes applications of the presented approach to scheduling problems on unrelated parallel machines with a deadline and machine setup time dependent on the process state, where the relationship between tasks is defined by the graph. The article also presents the results of computational experiments.

  7. Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

    2014-07-01

    To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Decision-making and problem-solving methods in automation technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankins, W. W.; Pennington, J. E.; Barker, L. K.

    1983-01-01

    The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming.

  9. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  10. Transfer of learning in binary decision making problems.

    OpenAIRE

    Robotti, O. P.

    2007-01-01

    Transfer, the use of acquired knowledge, skills and abilities across tasks and contexts, is a key and elusive goal of learning. Most evidence available in literature is based on a limited number of tasks, predominantly open-ended problems, game-like problems and taught school subjects (e.g. maths, physics, algebra). It is not obvious that findings from this work can be extended to the domain of decision making problems. This thesis, which aims to broaden the understanding of enhancing and lim...

  11. Monte Carlo Tree Search for Continuous and Stochastic Sequential Decision Making Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couetoux, Adrien

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis, I studied sequential decision making problems, with a focus on the unit commitment problem. Traditionally solved by dynamic programming methods, this problem is still a challenge, due to its high dimension and to the sacrifices made on the accuracy of the model to apply state of the art methods. I investigated on the applicability of Monte Carlo Tree Search methods for this problem, and other problems that are single player, stochastic and continuous sequential decision making problems. In doing so, I obtained a consistent and anytime algorithm, that can easily be combined with existing strong heuristic solvers. (author)

  12. Risk-informed decision making during Bohunice NPP safety upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipar, M.; Muzikova, E.; Kubanyi, J.

    2001-01-01

    The paper summarizes some facts of risk-informed regulation developments within UJD regulatory environment. Based on national as well as international operating experience and indications resulted from PSA, Nuclear Regulatory Authority of the Slovak Republic (UJD) since its constituting in 1993 has devoted an effort to use PSA technology to support the regulatory policy in Slovakia. The PSA is considered a complement, not a substitute, to the deterministic approach. Suchlike integrated approach is used in decision making processes and the final decision on scope and priorities is based on it. The paper outlines risk insights used in the decision making process concerning Bohunice NPP safety upgrading and focuses on the role of PSA results in Gradual Reconstruction of Bohunice VI NPP. Besides, two other examples of the PSA results application to the decision making process are provided: the assessment of proposal of modifications to the main power supply diagram (incorporation of generator switches) and the assessment of licensee request for motor generator AOT (Allowable Outage Time) extension. As an example of improving support of Bohunice V-2 risk-informed operations, concept of AOT calculations and Bohunice V-2 Risk Monitor Project are briefly described. (author)

  13. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  14. Risk-informed decision making a keystone in advanced safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinhart, M.

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has provided extremely valuable complementary insight, perspective, comprehension, and balance to deterministic nuclear reactor safety assessment. This integrated approach of risk-informed management and decision making has been called Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM). RIDM provides enhanced safety, reliability, operational flexibility, reduced radiological exposure, and improved fiscal economy. Applications of RIDM continuously increase. Current applications are in the areas of design, construction, licensing, operations, and security. Operational phase safety applications include the following: technical specifications improvement, risk-monitors and configuration control, maintenance planning, outage planning and management, in-service inspection, inservice testing, graded quality assurance, reactor oversight and inspection, inspection finding significance determination, operational events assessment, and rulemaking. Interestingly there is a significant spectrum of approaches, methods, programs, controls, data bases, and standards. The quest of many is to assimilate the full compliment of PSA and RIDM information and to achieve a balanced international harmony. The goal is to focus the best of the best, so to speak, for the benefit of all. Accordingly, this presentation will address the principles, benefits, and applications of RIDM. It will also address some of the challenges and areas to improve. Finally it will highlight efforts by the IAEA and others to capture the international thinking, experience, successes, challenges, and lessons in RIDM. (authors)

  15. Operation and safety decision-making support expert system in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Yanhui; Su Desong; Chen Weihua; Zhang Jianbo

    2014-01-01

    The article first reviewed three operation support systems currently used in NPP: real-time information surveillance system, important equipment surveillance system and plant process control and monitoring system, then presents the structure and function of three expert support sub-systems (intelligent alarm monitoring system, computer-based operating procedure support system, safety information expert decision support system). Finally the article discussed the meaning of a kind of operation decision making support system. (authors)

  16. Proposing a model for safety risk assessment in the construction industry using gray multi-criterion decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Abootorabi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Statistical Report of the Social Security Organization indicate that among the various industries, the construction industry has the highest number of work-related accidents so that in addition to frequency, it has high intensity, as well. On the other hand, a large number of human resources are working in this whish shows they necessity for paying special attention to these workers. Therefore, risk assessment of the safety in the construction industry is an effective step in this regard. In this study, a method for ranking safety risks in conditions of low number of samples and uncertainty is presented, using gray multi-criterion decision-making. .Material and Method: In this study, we first identified the factors affecting the occurrence of hazards in the construction industry. Then, appropriate for ranking the risks were determined and the problem was defined as a multi-criterion decision-making. In order to weight the criteria and to evaluate alternatives based on each criterion, gray numbers were used. In the last stage, the problem was solved using the gray possibility degree. .Results: The results show that the method of gray multi-criterion decision-making is an effective method for ranking risks in situations of low samples compared with other methods of MCDM. .Conclusion: The proposed method is preferred to fuzzy methods and statistics in uncertain and low sample size, due to simple calculations and no need to define the membership function.

  17. On categorical approach to derived preference relations in some decision making problems

    OpenAIRE

    Rozen, Victor V.; Zhitomirski, Grigori

    2005-01-01

    A structure called a decision making problem is considered. The set of outcomes (consequences) is partially ordered according to the decision maker's preferences. The problem is how these preferences affect a decision maker to prefer one of his strategies (or acts) to another, i.e. it is to describe so called derived preference relations. This problem is formalized by using category theory approach and reduced to a pure algebraical question. An effective method is suggested to build all reaso...

  18. Decision making under ambiguity but not under risk is related to problem gambling severity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Bechara, Antoine; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between problem gambling severity and decision-making situations that vary in two degrees of uncertainty (probability of outcome is known: decision-making under risk; probability of outcome is unknown: decision-making under ambiguity). For

  19. Probabilistic assessment methods as a tool for developing nations to make safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumley, P.; Inamdar, S.V.

    1985-01-01

    This paper advocates the use of probabilistic safety assessment methods in making safety decisions. It discusses the question of adequate safety - what it means to a country buying a nuclear power plant, and how probabilistic safety assessment studies of the reference plant can be used for ensuring this adequate safety. It is proposed that adequate safety means ensuring that the plant would behave, in accident conditions, in a manner similar to the way it is expected to behave were it in the country of origin. For this one needs to know how the plant responds under somewhat altered conditions. These altered conditions can arise from such factors as varying reliability of electrical grids, different manufacturing technology, local systems design and operator capability. In the design of nuclear power plants, the traditional approach to safety has led to the belief that availability and effectiveness of safety systems alone are all that is required to ensure plant safety. This belief can result in design oversights leading to potential problems arising from the power production systems and the service systems. Participation by the buying country in the design of such systems, and understanding the safety implications thereof, can be facilitated by probabilistic safety assessment methods. This philosophy is illustrated in this paper by examples. (author)

  20. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  1. Independence in regulatory decision making - INSAG-17. A report by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This report is intended to promote a common understanding among legislators and other political decision makers, nuclear safety regulators and licensees of the concept of independence in regulatory decision making and how to achieve it. Other interest groups, such as non-governmental organizations and members of the public interested in the regulation of nuclear safety, may also find the report useful. The principles concerning the independence of regulatory organizations are developed and discussed in publications in the IAEA's Safety Standards Series. Although the principles relating to protecting the independence of the regulatory body provide the necessary basis for independence in regulatory decision making, there are additional factors and features that require attention to ensure independence in the decision making by the regulatory body. This INSAG report highlights and discusses a number of such factors and features

  2. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

    2015-01-01

    Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  3. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Doubravsky

    Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  4. Effective decision making 10 steps to better decision making and problem solving

    CERN Document Server

    Kourdi, Jeremy

    2011-01-01

    Decisions and problems can often leave people with a dilemma: knowing that a decision is required, but uncertain how to ensure that it is the best one and that it will be successfully executed. The paradox is that the very pressure for a decision often breeds indecisiveness.

  5. Children's Use of Meta-Cognition in Solving Everyday Problems: Children's Monetary Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chwee Beng; Koh, Noi Keng; Cai, Xin Le; Quek, Choon Lang

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand how children use meta-cognition in their everyday problem-solving, particularly making monetary decisions. A particular focus was to identify components of meta-cognition, such as regulation of cognition and knowledge of cognition observed in children's monetary decision-making process, the roles of…

  6. Rough multiple objective decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jiuping

    2011-01-01

    Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.

  7. An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

    2017-01-01

    A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

  8. The Markov Latent Effects Approach to Safety and Decision -Making; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COOPER, J. ARLIN

    2001-01-01

    The methodology in this report addresses the safety effects of organizational and operational factors that can be measured through ''inspection.'' The investigation grew out of a preponderance of evidence that the safety ''culture'' (attitude of employees and management toward safety) was frequently one of the major root causes behind accidents or safety-relevant failures. The approach is called ''Markov latent effects'' analysis. Since safety also depends on a multitude of factors that are best measured through well known risk analysis methods (e.g., fault trees, event trees, FMECA, physical response modeling, etc.), the Markov latent effects approach supplements conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems, for determining the most appropriate items to be measured, and for expressing the measurements as imprecise subjective metrics through possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A mathematical model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of the modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute with respect to subsystems and are aggregated nonlinearly. Since the accumulating effect responds less and less to additional contribution, it is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation, which is analogous to how humans frequently make decisions. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on commonality and by reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions derived from the results are facilitated in several ways. First, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity'' (both Primary and Secondary) in order to know where to place emphasis on investigation of root causes and in considering new

  9. Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

    2018-05-01

    Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

  10. Constraint programming and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    2014-01-01

    In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

  11. Review of decision methodologies for evaluating regulatory actions affecting public health and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendrickson, P.L.; McDonald, C.L.; Schilling, A.H.

    1976-12-01

    This report examines several aspects of the problems and choices facing the governmental decision maker who must take regulatory actions with multiple decision objectives and attributes. Particular attention is given to the problems facing the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and to the decision attribute of chief concern to NRC, the protection of human health and safety, with emphasis on nuclear power plants. The study was undertaken to provide background information for NRC to use in refining its process of value/impact assessment of proposed regulatory actions. The principal conclusion is that approaches to rationally consider the value and impact of proposed regulatory actions are available. These approaches can potentially improve the decision-making process and enable the agency to better explain and defend its decisions. They also permit consistent examination of the impacts, effects of uncertainty and sensitivity to various assumptions of the alternatives being considered. Finally, these approaches can help to assure that affected parties are heard and that technical information is used appropriately and to the extent possible. The principal aspects of the regulatory decision problem covered in the report are: the legal setting for regulatory decisions which affect human health and safety, elements of the decision-making process, conceptual approaches to decision making, current approaches to decision making in several Federal agencies, and the determination of acceptable risk levels

  12. Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A

    2016-04-25

    Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care.

  13. Procurement in the Nuclear Industry, Quality, Safety and Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakobsson, Marianne; Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka

    2010-03-01

    The major purpose of the present study is partly to map and partly to make an analysis of the decision processes in the procurement routines in the nuclear industry in order to provide a basis for: 1. further development of safety inspections about procurements for Swedish Radiation Safety Authority 2. improvements of safety management in connection with procurement within a nuclear-power plant, 3 improvements of procurement routines in general in a nuclear power plant. The procurement processes at a nuclear power plant were analyzed from a decision theoretic perspective. Key staff at the plant was interviewed and written instructions as well as digitalized processes were used in the analysis. The results illustrate the most important moments during the procurement process with descriptions from interviews and documents. The staff at the nuclear power plant used a multi-attribute utility decision theory MAUT-inspired model in evaluation of alternatives and both compensatory (in which negative aspects can be compensated by positive aspects) and non-compensatory (in which certain 'pass' levels of attributes have to be exceeded for a choice) decision rules were used in the procurement process. Not surprising, nuclear safety was evaluated in a non-compensatory manner following regulatory criteria while costs were evaluated in trade-off compensatory rules, which means that a weakness in one consideration might be compensated by strength in another consideration. Thus, nuclear safety above the regulator's and law requirements are not integrated in a compensatory manner when procurement alternatives are evaluated. The nuclear plant assessed an organization's safety culture at an early stage of the purchasing process. A successful and a less successful procurement case were reported with the lessons learned from them. We find that the existing written instructions for purchase were well elaborated and adequate. There is a lack of personal resources when procurement teams

  14. Identifying the most informative variables for decision-making problems – a survey of recent approaches and accompanying problems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pudil, Pavel; Somol, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 4 (2008), s. 37-55 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : variable selection * decision making Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/RO/pudil-identifying%20the%20most%20informative%20variables%20for%20decision- making %20problems%20a%20survey%20of%20recent%20approaches%20and%20accompanying%20problems.pdf

  15. Triage: Making a Political Decision to Solve an Environmental Science Problem Through Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridolfi, Thomas

    1974-01-01

    A description is given of a class project concerned with examining a population problem and making some political decisions to solve it. A list of topics for the students to research as a basis for their decisions is provided. (DT)

  16. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice

  17. Use of decision criteria based on expected values to support decision-making in a production assurance and safety setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Flage, R.

    2009-01-01

    We consider decision problems related to production assurance and safety. The issue is to what extent we should use decision criteria based on expected values, such as the expected net present value (E[NPV]) and the expected cost per expected number of saved lives (ICAF), to guide the decision. Such criteria are recognised as practical tools for supporting decision-making under uncertainty, but is uncertainty adequately taken into account by these criteria? Based on the prevailing practice and the existing literature, we conclude that there is a need for a clarification of the rationale of these criteria. Adjustments of the standard approaches have been suggested to reflect risks and uncertainties, but can cautionary and precautionary concerns be replaced by formulae and mechanical procedures? These issues are discussed in the present paper, particularly addressing the company level. We argue that the search for such formulae and procedures should be replaced by a more balanced perspective acknowledging that there will always be a need for management review and judgment beyond the realm of the analyses. Most of the suggested adjustments of the E[NPV] and ICAF approaches should be avoided. They add more confusion than value.

  18. Individual decision making, group decision making and deliberation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Bojana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Each of us makes a number of decisions, from the less important to those with far-reaching consequences. As members of different groups, we are also actors of group decision making. In order to make a rational decision, a choice-making procedure must satisfy a number of assumptions (conditions of rationality. In addition, when it comes to group decisions, those procedures should also be “fair.” However, it is not possible to define a procedure of choice-making that would transform individual orders of alternatives based on preferences of perfectly rational individuals into a single social order and still meet conditions of rationality and ethics. The theory of deliberative democracy appeared in response to the impossibility of Social Choice theory. The basic assumption of deliberative democracy is that individuals adjust their preferences taking into account interests of the community. They are open for discussion with other group members and are willing to change their attitudes in order to achieve common interests. Ideally, group members come to an agreement during public discussion (deliberation. Still, this concept cannot completely over­come all the difficulties posed by the theory of social choice. Specifically, there is no solution for strategic and manipulative behavior of individuals. Also, the concept of deliberative democracy faces certain problems particular to this approach, such as, to name but a few, problems with the establishment of equality of participants in the debate and their motivation, as well as problems with the organization of public hearings. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU

  19. Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  20. Dual worth trade-off method and its application for solving multiple criteria decision making problems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Junwen

    2006-01-01

    To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off (SWT) method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth trade-off (DWT) method is proposed. The DWT method dynamically uses the duality theory related to the multiple criteria decision making problem and analytic hierarchy process technique to obtain the decision maker's solution preference information and finally find the satisfactory compromise solution of the decision maker. Through the interactive process between the analyst and the decision maker, trade-off information is solicited and treated properly, the representative subset of efficient solutions and the satisfactory solution to the problem are found. The implementation procedure for the DWT method is presented. The effectiveness and applicability of the DWT method are shown by a practical case study in the field of production scheduling.

  1. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  2. Effect of training problem-solving skill on decision-making and critical thinking of personnel at medical emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, Mohammad; Shahbazi, Sara

    2016-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of problem-solving training on decision-making skill and critical thinking in emergency medical personnel. Materials and Methods: This study is an experimental study that performed in 95 emergency medical personnel in two groups of control (48) and experimental (47). Then, a short problem-solving course based on 8 sessions of 2 h during the term, was performed for the experimental group. Of data gathering was used demographic and researcher made decision-making and California critical thinking skills questionnaires. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The finding revealed that decision-making and critical thinking score in emergency medical personnel are low and problem-solving course, positively affected the personnel’ decision-making skill and critical thinking after the educational program (P problem-solving in various emergency medicine domains such as education, research, and management, is recommended. PMID:28149823

  3. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  4. A Tentative Organizational Schema for Decision-Making Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, William C.; Goodman, Barbara Ettinger

    This report presents the results of research that examined widely diverse decision problems and attempted to specify their common behavior elements. To take into account the psychological complexity of most real-life decision problems, and to develop a tentative organization of decision behavior that will embrace the many, highly diverse types of…

  5. Impact of support system failure limitations on probabilistic safety assessment and in regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickel, J.H.

    1990-01-01

    When used as a tool for safety decision making, Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is as effective as it realistically characterizes the overall frequency and consequences of various types of system and component failures. If significant support system failure events are omitted from consideration, the PSA process omits the characterization of possible unique contributors to core damage risk, possibly underestimates the frequency of core damage, and reduces the future utility of the PSA as a decision making tool for the omitted support system. This paper is based on a review of several recent US PSA studies and the author's participation in several International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sponsored peer reviews. 21 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  6. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  7. Evolving neural networks for strategic decision-making problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Nate; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2009-04-01

    Evolution of neural networks, or neuroevolution, has been a successful approach to many low-level control problems such as pole balancing, vehicle control, and collision warning. However, certain types of problems-such as those involving strategic decision-making-have remained difficult for neuroevolution to solve. This paper evaluates the hypothesis that such problems are difficult because they are fractured: The correct action varies discontinuously as the agent moves from state to state. A method for measuring fracture using the concept of function variation is proposed and, based on this concept, two methods for dealing with fracture are examined: neurons with local receptive fields, and refinement based on a cascaded network architecture. Experiments in several benchmark domains are performed to evaluate how different levels of fracture affect the performance of neuroevolution methods, demonstrating that these two modifications improve performance significantly. These results form a promising starting point for expanding neuroevolution to strategic tasks.

  8. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R J; Bissell, P; Wingfield, J

    2008-06-01

    Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making. To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an under-researched professional group. 23 purposively sampled UK community pharmacists were asked, in semi-structured interviews, to describe ethical problems in their work and how they were resolved. Framework analysis of transcribed interviews utilised the four decision-making stages, together with constant comparative methods and deviant-case analysis. Pharmacists were often inattentive and constructed problems in legal terms. Ethical reasoning was limited, but examples of appeals to consequences, the golden rule, religious faith and common-sense experience emerged. Ethical intention was compromised by frequent concern about legal prosecution. Ethical inaction was common, typified by pharmacists' failure to report healthcare professionals' bad practices, and ethical passivity emerged to describe these negative examples of the four decision-making stages. Pharmacists occasionally described more ethically active decision-making, but this often involved ethical uncertainty. The four decision-making stages are a useful tool in considering how healthcare professionals try to resolve ethical problems in practice. They reveal processes often ignored in normative theories, and their recognition and the emergence of ethical passivity indicates the complexity of decision-making in practice. Ethical passivity may be deleterious to patients' welfare, and concerns emerge about improving pharmacists' ethical training and promoting ethical awareness and responsibility.

  9. Assessing ethical problem solving by reasoning rather than decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Tsuen-Chiuan; Harasym, Peter H; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Donnon, Tyrone

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of ethical problem solving in medicine has been controversial and challenging. The purposes of this study were: (i) to create a new instrument to measure doctors' decisions on and reasoning approach towards resolving ethical problems; (ii) to evaluate the scores generated by the new instrument for their reliability and validity, and (iii) to compare doctors' ethical reasoning abilities between countries and among medical students, residents and experts. This study used 15 clinical vignettes and the think-aloud method to identify the processes and components involved in ethical problem solving. Subjects included volunteer ethics experts, postgraduate Year 2 residents and pre-clerkship medical students. The interview data were coded using the instruments of the decision score and Ethical Reasoning Inventory (ERI). The ERI assessed the quality of ethical reasoning for a particular case (Part I) and for an individual globally across all the vignettes (Part II). There were 17 Canadian and 32 Taiwanese subjects. Based on the Canadian standard, the decision scores between Taiwanese and Canadian subjects differed significantly, but made no discrimination among the three levels of expertise. Scores on the ERI Parts I and II, which reflect doctors' reasoning quality, differed between countries and among different levels of expertise in Taiwan, providing evidence of construct validity. In addition, experts had a greater organised knowledge structure and considered more relevant variables in the process of arriving at ethical decisions than did residents or students. The reliability of ERI scores was 0.70-0.99 on Part I and 0.75-0.80 on Part II. Expertise in solving ethical problems could not be differentiated by the decisions made, but could be differentiated according to the reasoning used to make those decisions. The difference between Taiwanese and Canadian experts suggests that cultural considerations come into play in the decisions that are made in the

  10. Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1996-01-01

    A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

  11. Hesitant Probabilistic Fuzzy Linguistic Sets with Applications in Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dheeraj Kumar Joshi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainties due to randomness and fuzziness comprehensively exist in control and decision support systems. In the present study, we introduce notion of occurring probability of possible values into hesitant fuzzy linguistic element (HFLE and define hesitant probabilistic fuzzy linguistic set (HPFLS for ill structured and complex decision making problem. HPFLS provides a single framework where both stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainties can be efficiently handled along with hesitation. We have also proposed expected mean, variance, score and accuracy function and basic operations for HPFLS. Weighted and ordered weighted aggregation operators for HPFLS are also defined in the present study for its applications in multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM problems. We propose a MCGDM method with HPFL information which is illustrated by an example. A real case study is also taken in the present study to rank State Bank of India, InfoTech Enterprises, I.T.C., H.D.F.C. Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Bajaj Finance using real data. Proposed HPFLS-based MCGDM method is also compared with two HFL-based decision making methods.

  12. Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1987-01-01

    The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

  13. Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1998-01-01

    To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

  14. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  15. A Novel Multiperson Game Approach for Linguistic Multicriteria Decision Making Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-San Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Game theory is considered as an efficient framework in dealing with decision making problems for two players in the competitive environment. In general, the evaluation values of payoffs matrix are expressed by crisp values in a game model. However, many uncertainties and vagueness should be considered due to the qualitative criteria and the subjective judgment of decision makers in the decision making process. The aim of this study is to develop an effective methodology for solving the payoffs matrix with linguistic variables by multiple decision makers in a game model. Based on the linguistic variables, the decision makers can easily express their opinions with respect to criteria for each alternative. By using the linear programming method, we can find the optimal solution of a game matrix in accordance with the combination of strategies of each player effectively. In addition, the expected performance value (EPV index is defined in this paper to compare the competition ability of each player based on the optimal probability of each strategy combination. And then, numerical example will be implemented to illustrate the computation process of the proposed model. The conclusion and future research are discussed at the end of this paper.

  16. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...

  17. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  18. The Effect of Decision-Making Skill Training Programs on Self-Esteem and Decision-Making Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Celik, D. Billur

    2016-01-01

    Problem Statement: Decision making is a critical cognitive process in every area of human life. In this process, the individuals play an active role and obtain outputs with their functional use of decision-making skills. Therefore, the decision-making process can affect the course of life, life satisfaction, and the social relations of an…

  19. A Grounded Theory Study of Aircraft Maintenance Technician Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norcross, Robert

    Aircraft maintenance technician decision-making and actions have resulted in aircraft system errors causing aircraft incidents and accidents. Aircraft accident investigators and researchers examined the factors that influence aircraft maintenance technician errors and categorized the types of errors in an attempt to prevent similar occurrences. New aircraft technology introduced to improve aviation safety and efficiency incur failures that have no information contained in the aircraft maintenance manuals. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, aircraft maintenance technicians must use only approved aircraft maintenance documents to repair, modify, and service aircraft. This qualitative research used a grounded theory approach to explore the decision-making processes and actions taken by aircraft maintenance technicians when confronted with an aircraft problem not contained in the aircraft maintenance manuals. The target population for the research was Federal Aviation Administration licensed aircraft and power plant mechanics from across the United States. Nonprobability purposeful sampling was used to obtain aircraft maintenance technicians with the experience sought in the study problem. The sample population recruitment yielded 19 participants for eight focus group sessions to obtain opinions, perceptions, and experiences related to the study problem. All data collected was entered into the Atlas ti qualitative analysis software. The emergence of Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making themes regarding Aircraft Maintenance Manual content, Aircraft Maintenance Technician experience, and legal implications of not following Aircraft Maintenance Manuals surfaced. Conclusions from this study suggest Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making were influenced by experience, gaps in the Aircraft Maintenance Manuals, reliance on others, realizing the impact of decisions concerning aircraft airworthiness, management pressures, and legal concerns

  20. Maternal depression and trajectories of child internalizing and externalizing problems: the roles of child decision making and working memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, E; Ruddy, A; Midouhas, E

    2017-04-01

    Maternal depression may affect the emotional/behavioural outcomes of children with normal neurocognitive functioning less severely than it does those without. To guide prevention and intervention efforts, research must specify which aspects of a child's cognitive functioning both moderate the effect of maternal depression and are amenable to change. Working memory and decision making may be amenable to change and are so far unexplored as moderators of this effect. Our sample was 17 160 Millennium Cohort Study children. We analysed trajectories of externalizing (conduct and hyperactivity) and internalizing (emotional and peer) problems, measured with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 years, using growth curve models. We characterized maternal depression, also time-varying at these ages, by a high score on the K6. Working memory was measured with the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery Spatial Working Memory Task, and decision making (risk taking and quality of decision making) with the Cambridge Gambling Task, both at age 11 years. Maternal depression predicted both the level and the growth of problems. Risk taking and poor-quality decision making were related positively to externalizing and non-significantly to internalizing problems. Poor working memory was related to both problem types. Neither decision making nor working memory explained the effect of maternal depression on child internalizing/externalizing problems. Importantly, risk taking amplified the effect of maternal depression on internalizing problems, and poor working memory that on internalizing and conduct problems. Impaired decision making and working memory in children amplify the adverse effect of maternal depression on, particularly, internalizing problems.

  1. Safety margins of operating reactors. Analysis of uncertainties and implications for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    current report presents the results of a Technical Committee Meeting on Safety Margins of Operating Reactors and Implications for Decision Making including Considerations of Uncertainties of Analyses, held in Vienna, 15-19 October 2001. In this meeting specific topics related to the safety margins and their implications for decision making were presented and discussed

  2. Fuzzy multi-objective decision making on a low and intermediate level waste repository safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Deshpande, Ashok; Guimaraes, Lamartine

    2002-01-01

    Low and intermediate waste disposal facilities safety assessment is comprised of several steps from site selection , construction and operation to post-closure performance assessment. This is a multidisciplinary and complex task , and can not be analyzed by one expert only. This high complexity can lead to ambiguity and vagueness in information and consequently in the decision making process. In order to make the decision process clear and objective, there is the need to provide the decision makers with a clear and comprehensive picture of the whole process and, at the same time, simple and easily understandable by the public. This paper suggests the development of an inference system based on fuzzy decision making methodology. Fuzzy logic tools are specially suited to deal with ambiguous data by using language expressions. This process would be capable of integrating knowledge from various fields of environmental sciences. It has an advantage of keeping record of reasoning for each intermediate decision that lead to the final results which makes it more dependable and defensible as well. (author)

  3. Problems of making the laminar construction of the nuclear reactor safety hausing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ablewicz, Z.

    1980-01-01

    General specifications and operating conditions of a safety housing are followed by a characteristics of constructional materials and a description of basic problems connected with making the laminar structure of this housing. (author)

  4. A hybrid multiple attribute decision making method for solving problems of industrial environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinesh Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate alternative in the industrial environment is an important but, at the same time, a complex and difficult problem because of the availability of a wide range of alternatives and similarity among them. Therefore, there is a need for simple, systematic, and logical methods or mathematical tools to guide decision makers in considering a number of selection attributes and their interrelations. In this paper, a hybrid decision making method of graph theory and matrix approach (GTMA and analytical hierarchy process (AHP is proposed. Three examples are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed GTMA-AHP method and the results are compared with the results obtained using other decision making methods.

  5. Decision-making in abnormal radiological situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1998-01-01

    General problems associated with social impacts of radiology and decision making is discussed, as the main topics of the meeting. The problem of population is discussed living in areas contaminates with radioactive substances resulting from a major accident or from pest practices. This situation needs decision making process for initiating actions like relocation, resettlement or large-scale decontamination. The roles of various participants in this decision making process and in the communication with the public are considered. (R.P.)

  6. Using statistical inference for decision making in best estimate analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sermer, P.; Weaver, K.; Hoppe, F.; Olive, C.; Quach, D.

    2008-01-01

    For broad classes of safety analysis problems, one needs to make decisions when faced with randomly varying quantities which are also subject to errors. The means for doing this involves a statistical approach which takes into account the nature of the physical problems, and the statistical constraints they impose. We describe the methodology for doing this which has been developed at Nuclear Safety Solutions, and we draw some comparisons to other methods which are commonly used in Canada and internationally. Our methodology has the advantages of being robust and accurate and compares favourably to other best estimate methods. (author)

  7. The database search problem: a question of rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gittelson, S; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Taroni, F

    2012-10-10

    This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Review of decision methodologies for evaluating regulatory actions affecting public health and safety. [Nuclear industry site selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendrickson, P.L.; McDonald, C.L.; Schilling, A.H.

    1976-12-01

    This report examines several aspects of the problems and choices facing the governmental decision maker who must take regulatory actions with multiple decision objectives and attributes. Particular attention is given to the problems facing the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and to the decision attribute of chief concern to NRC, the protection of human health and safety, with emphasis on nuclear power plants. The study was undertaken to provide background information for NRC to use in refining its process of value/impact assessment of proposed regulatory actions. The principal conclusion is that approaches to rationally consider the value and impact of proposed regulatory actions are available. These approaches can potentially improve the decision-making process and enable the agency to better explain and defend its decisions. They also permit consistent examination of the impacts, effects of uncertainty and sensitivity to various assumptions of the alternatives being considered. Finally, these approaches can help to assure that affected parties are heard and that technical information is used appropriately and to the extent possible. The principal aspects of the regulatory decision problem covered in the report are: the legal setting for regulatory decisions which affect human health and safety, elements of the decision-making process, conceptual approaches to decision making, current approaches to decision making in several Federal agencies, and the determination of acceptable risk levels.

  9. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

  10. Tools for collaborative decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Zaraté, Pascale

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

  11. Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

    After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

  12. Interval neutrosophic sets and their application in multicriteria decision making problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong-yu; Wang, Jian-qiang; Chen, Xiao-hong

    2014-01-01

    As a generalization of fuzzy sets and intuitionistic fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets have been developed to represent uncertain, imprecise, incomplete, and inconsistent information existing in the real world. And interval neutrosophic sets (INSs) have been proposed exactly to address issues with a set of numbers in the real unit interval, not just a specific number. However, there are fewer reliable operations for INSs, as well as the INS aggregation operators and decision making method. For this purpose, the operations for INSs are defined and a comparison approach is put forward based on the related research of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) in this paper. On the basis of the operations and comparison approach, two interval neutrosophic number aggregation operators are developed. Then, a method for multicriteria decision making problems is explored applying the aggregation operators. In addition, an example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method.

  13. PROBLEMS OF APPLYING FIXED FORMULAE TO SAFETY CRITERIA AND SITE SELECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, W. K.

    1963-10-15

    The problem of developing a formula or calculation procedure for that could more-or-less automatically indicate whether or not a nuclear plant would be considered safe at a particular location is discussed. The difficulties and impossibilities of any sach formula for making decisions on siting and safety involving large amounts of money and public safety are considered. (P.C.H.)

  14. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Schöbel

    Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  15. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  16. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  17. Fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jiuping

    2014-01-01

    Decision has inspired reflection of many thinkers since the ancient times. With the rapid development of science and society, appropriate dynamic decision making has been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of human activity including engineering, management, economy and others. In most real-world problems, decision makers usually have to make decisions sequentially at different points in time and space, at different levels for a component or a system, while facing multiple and conflicting objectives and a hybrid uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness co-exist in a decision making process. This leads to the development of fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making. This book provides a thorough understanding of the concepts of dynamic optimization from a modern perspective and presents the state-of-the-art methodology for modeling, analyzing and solving the most typical multiple objective multistage decision making practical application problems under fuzzy-like un...

  18. Effects of Information Retrieval Process on Decision Making and Problem Solving: An Emprical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burcu Keten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Individuals who are unaware of a need for information and/or who have not experienced the information retrieval process while meeting such a need cannot be a part of information society. Only those individuals with an awareness that information is essential to the problem-solving and decision-making processes, who are equipped with information retrieval and utilization skills and who can further integrate such skills into their daily lives, can be a part of an information society and attain the capability of performing properly in their societal roles and thus ultimately of shaping their society. Moving from this context, this article defines the elements of the information retrieval process, starting with the concept of information, and studies the influences of the information retrieval process on problem solving and decision making.

  19. Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

    2012-01-01

    In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

  20. Decision making with epistemic uncertainty under safety constraints: An application to seismic design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veneziano, D.; Agarwal, A.; Karaca, E.

    2009-01-01

    The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations in epistemic uncertainty are ignored or worst-case scenarios are postulated. These strategies tend to produce sub-optimal decisions. We develop a general framework based on Bayesian decision theory and exemplify it for the case of seismic design of buildings. When temporal fluctuations of the epistemic uncertainties and regulatory safety constraints are included, the optimal level of seismic protection exceeds the normative level at the time of construction. Optimal Bayesian decisions do not depend on the aleatory or epistemic nature of the uncertainties, but only on the total (epistemic plus aleatory) uncertainty and how that total uncertainty varies randomly during the lifetime of the project. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Common basis of establishing safety standards and other safety decision-making levels for different sources of health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Current approaches in establishing safety standards and other decision-making levels for different sources of health risk are critically analysed. To have a common basis for this decision-making a specific risk index R is recommended. In the common sense R is quantitatively defined as LLE caused by the annual exposure to the risk source considered: R = annual exposure, damage (LLE) from the exposure unit. This common definition is also rewritten in specific forms for a set of different risk sources (ionising radiation, chemical pollutants, etc): for different risk sources the exposure can be measured with different quantities (the probability of death, the exposure dose, etc.). R is relative LLE: LLE in years referred to 1 year under the risk. The dimension of this value is [year/year]. In the statistical sense R is conditionally the share of the year, which is lost due to exposure to a risk source during this year. In this sense R can be called as the relative damage. Really lifetime years are lost after the exposure. R can be in some conditional sense considered as a dimensionless quantity. General safety standards R n for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index: R n = 0.0007 and 0.01 accordingly. Secondary safety standards are derived for a number of risk sources (ionising radiation, environmental chemical pollutants, etc). Values of R n are chosen in such a way that to have the secondary radiation BSS being equivalent to the current one's. Other general and derived levels for safety decision-making are also proposed including the de-minimus levels. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data (HDD) is considered. Such issues as the ways of the integration and averaging of risk indices considered through the national or regional HDD for different risk sources and the use of non-threshold linear exposure - response relationships for ionising radiation and chemical pollutants are analysed

  2. Shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godolphin, William

    2009-01-01

    Shared decision-making has been called the crux of patient-centred care and identified as a key part of change for improved quality and safety in healthcare. However, it rarely happens, is hard to do and is not taught - for many reasons. Talking with patients about options is not embedded in the attitudes or communication skills training of most healthcare professionals. Information tools such as patient decision aids, personal health records and the Internet will help to shift this state, as will policy that drives patient and public involvement in healthcare delivery and training.

  3. Make or buy decision considering uncertainty based on fuzzy logic using simulation and multiple criteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohtashami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making on making/buying problem has always been a challenge to decision makers. In this paper a methodology has been proposed to resolve this challenge. This methodology is capable of evaluating making/buying decision making under uncertainty. For uncertainty, the fuzzy logic and simulation approaches have been used. The proposed methodology can be applied to parts with multi stage manufacturing processes and different suppliers. Therefore this methodology provides a scale for decision making from full outsourcing to full manufacturing and with selecting appropriate supplier.

  4. Interval Neutrosophic Sets and Their Application in Multicriteria Decision Making Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-yu Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As a generalization of fuzzy sets and intuitionistic fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets have been developed to represent uncertain, imprecise, incomplete, and inconsistent information existing in the real world. And interval neutrosophic sets (INSs have been proposed exactly to address issues with a set of numbers in the real unit interval, not just a specific number. However, there are fewer reliable operations for INSs, as well as the INS aggregation operators and decision making method. For this purpose, the operations for INSs are defined and a comparison approach is put forward based on the related research of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs in this paper. On the basis of the operations and comparison approach, two interval neutrosophic number aggregation operators are developed. Then, a method for multicriteria decision making problems is explored applying the aggregation operators. In addition, an example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method.

  5. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  6. Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

    2014-01-01

    The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

  7. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  8. Learning to Make Decisions Through Constructive Controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjosvold, Dean

    Students must make decisions about their lifestyle, future careers, academic pursuits, and classroom and school issues. Learning to make effective decisions for themselves and for society is an important aspect of competence. They can learn decision making through interacting and solving problems with others. A central ingredient for successful…

  9. Crisis decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holsti, O.R.

    1989-01-01

    This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war

  10. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  11. Neuroanatomical basis for recognition primed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Effective decision making under time constraints is often overlooked in medical decision making. The recognition primed decision making (RPDM) model was developed by Gary Klein based on previous recognized situations to develop a satisfactory solution to the current problem. Bayes Theorem is the most popular decision making model in medicine but is limited by the need for adequate time to consider all probabilities. Unlike other decision making models, there is a potential neurobiological basis for RPDM. This model has significant implication for health informatics and medical education.

  12. Soft computing based on hierarchical evaluation approach and criteria interdependencies for energy decision-making problems: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitinavard, Hossein; Mousavi, S. Meysam; Vahdani, Behnam

    2017-01-01

    In numerous real-world energy decision problems, decision makers often encounter complex environments, in which existent imprecise data and uncertain information lead us to make an appropriate decision. In this paper, a new soft computing group decision-making approach is introduced based on novel compromise ranking method and interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (IVHFSs) for energy decision-making problems under multiple criteria. In the proposed approach, the assessment information is provided by energy experts or decision makers based on interval-valued hesitant fuzzy elements under incomplete criteria weights. In this respect, a new ranking index is presented respecting to interval-valued hesitant fuzzy Hamming distance measure to prioritize energy candidates, and criteria weights are computed based on an extended maximizing deviation method by considering the preferences experts' judgments about the relative importance of each criterion. Also, a decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is extended under an IVHF-environment to compute the interdependencies between and within the selected criteria in the hierarchical structure. Accordingly, to demonstrate the applicability of the presented approach a case study and a practical example are provided regarding to hierarchical structure and criteria interdependencies relations for renewable energy and energy policy selection problems. Hence, the obtained computational results are compared with a fuzzy decision-making method from the recent literature based on some comparison parameters to show the advantages and constraints of the proposed approach. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is prepared to indicate effects of different criteria weights on ranking results to present the robustness or sensitiveness of the proposed soft computing approach versus the relative importance of criteria. - Highlights: • Introducing a novel interval-valued hesitant fuzzy compromise ranking method. • Presenting

  13. Intention-Aware Autonomous Driving Decision-Making in an Uncontrolled Intersection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weilong Song

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles need to perform social accepted behaviors in complex urban scenarios including human-driven vehicles with uncertain intentions. This leads to many difficult decision-making problems, such as deciding a lane change maneuver and generating policies to pass through intersections. In this paper, we propose an intention-aware decision-making algorithm to solve this challenging problem in an uncontrolled intersection scenario. In order to consider uncertain intentions, we first develop a continuous hidden Markov model to predict both the high-level motion intention (e.g., turn right, turn left, and go straight and the low level interaction intentions (e.g., yield status for related vehicles. Then a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP is built to model the general decision-making framework. Due to the difficulty in solving POMDP, we use proper assumptions and approximations to simplify this problem. A human-like policy generation mechanism is used to generate the possible candidates. Human-driven vehicles’ future motion model is proposed to be applied in state transition process and the intention is updated during each prediction time step. The reward function, which considers the driving safety, traffic laws, time efficiency, and so forth, is designed to calculate the optimal policy. Finally, our method is evaluated in simulation with PreScan software and a driving simulator. The experiments show that our method could lead autonomous vehicle to pass through uncontrolled intersections safely and efficiently.

  14. The decision making in the nuclear regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This document describes some parameters and fundamental criteria which should be taken into account by the safety authorities in the decision making. Added to these principles, internal procedures, devoted to an integrated framework of decision making, should be implemented. This presentation is based on the study realized by an experts Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency. (A.L.B.)

  15. Decision making in urological surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

    2012-06-01

    Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

  16. A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

    2013-01-01

    Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-obj...

  17. The solution of target assignment problem in command and control decision-making behaviour simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ni; Huai, Wenqing; Wang, Shaodan

    2017-08-01

    C2 (command and control) has been understood to be a critical military component to meet an increasing demand for rapid information gathering and real-time decision-making in a dynamically changing battlefield environment. In this article, to improve a C2 behaviour model's reusability and interoperability, a behaviour modelling framework was proposed to specify a C2 model's internal modules and a set of interoperability interfaces based on the C-BML (coalition battle management language). WTA (weapon target assignment) is a typical C2 autonomous decision-making behaviour modelling problem. Different from most WTA problem descriptions, here sensors were considered to be available resources of detection and the relationship constraints between weapons and sensors were also taken into account, which brought it much closer to actual application. A modified differential evolution (MDE) algorithm was developed to solve this high-dimension optimisation problem and obtained an optimal assignment plan with high efficiency. In case study, we built a simulation system to validate the proposed C2 modelling framework and interoperability interface specification. Also, a new optimisation solution was used to solve the WTA problem efficiently and successfully.

  18. Interactive system for decision-making in power engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrzhinskij, I.; Skurovets, V.

    1988-01-01

    Classification of factors, affecting decision-making in the process of power engineering management is given. General formulation of the problem and main stages of decision-making are considered. Principle scheme of heuristic procedure of decision-making is suggested

  19. Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

    2017-05-03

    Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

  20. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  1. Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  2. Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    2009-01-01

    Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

  3. Fuzzy Bi-level Decision-Making Techniques: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangquan Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Bi-level decision-making techniques aim to deal with decentralized management problems that feature interactive decision entities distributed throughout a bi-level hierarchy. A challenge in handling bi-level decision problems is that various uncertainties naturally appear in decision-making process. Significant efforts have been devoted that fuzzy set techniques can be used to effectively deal with uncertain issues in bi-level decision-making, known as fuzzy bi-level decision-making techniques, and researchers have successfully gained experience in this area. It is thus vital that an instructive review of current trends in this area should be conducted, not only of the theoretical research but also the practical developments. This paper systematically reviews up-to-date fuzzy bi-level decisionmaking techniques, including models, approaches, algorithms and systems. It also clusters related technique developments into four main categories: basic fuzzy bi-level decision-making, fuzzy bi-level decision-making with multiple optima, fuzzy random bi-level decision-making, and the applications of bi-level decision-making techniques in different domains. By providing state-of-the-art knowledge, this survey paper will directly support researchers and practitioners in their understanding of developments in theoretical research results and applications in relation to fuzzy bi-level decision-making techniques.

  4. A New Interlink Decision Making Index for Making Multi-criteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Hu

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decisions usually require measurement or evaluation of performance in different units and their mix by application of weighting factors. This approach lads to potential manipulation of the results as a direct consequence of the applied weightings. In this paper a mechanism that is the brain child of the authors, has been proposed to overcome this problem. It is known as the Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI and has all the desired features: simple, interlink (all criteria and automatically guaranteed dominant influence of critical criteria (i.e. no human weighting needed. The IDMI is capable of reflecting the total merits of a particular option once the normal decision making criteria and (up to two critical criteria have been chosen. Then, without arbitrarily weighting criteria, comparison and selection of the best possible option can be made. Simple software has been developed to do this numerical transfer and graphic presentation. Two hypothetical examples are presented in the paper to demonstrate the application of the IDMI concept and its advantages over the traditional "tabular and weightingmethod" in the decision making process. 

  5. Strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...

  6. Application of PSA in risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models have been successfully employed during design evaluation to assess weak links and carry out design modifications to improve system reliability and safety. Recently, studies are directed towards applying PSA in various decision making issues concerned with plant operations and safety regulations. This necessitates development of software tools like Living PSA, Risk Monitor etc. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool developed to assess the risk, based on the actual status of systems and components. Such tools find wide application with plant personnel and regulatory authorities since they can provide solutions to various plant issues and regulatory decision making issues respectively. (author)

  7. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  8. Decision Making: Rational, Nonrational, and Irrational.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Herbert A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the current state of knowledge about human decision-making and problem-solving processes, explaining recent developments and their implications for management and management training. Rational goal-setting is the key to effective decision making and accomplishment. Bounded rationality is a realistic orientation, because the world is too…

  9. Decision making under uncertainty: An investigation into the application of formal decision-making methods to safety issue decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.

    1992-12-01

    As part of the NRC-sponsored program to study the implications of Generic Issue 57, ''Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment,'' a subtask was performed to evaluate the applicability of formal decision analysis methods to generic issues cost/benefit-type decisions and to apply these methods to the GI-57 results. In this report, the numerical results obtained from the analysis of three plants (two PWRs and one BWR) as developed in the technical resolution program for GI-57 were studied. For each plant, these results included a calculation of the person-REM averted due to various accident scenarios and various proposed modifications to mitigate the accident scenarios identified. These results were recomputed to break out the benefit in terms of contributions due to random event scenarios, fire event scenarios, and seismic event scenarios. Furthermore, the benefits associated with risk (in terms of person-REM) averted from earthquakes at three different seismic ground motion levels were separately considered. Given this data, formal decision methodologies involving decision trees, value functions, and utility functions were applied to this basic data. It is shown that the formal decision methodology can be applied at several different levels. Examples are given in which the decision between several retrofits is changed from that resulting from a simple cost/benefit-ratio criterion by virtue of the decision-makinger's expressed (and assumed) preferences

  10. Student Debt, Problem-Solving, and Decision-Making of Adult Learners: A Basic Qualitative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, William J.

    2013-01-01

    A basic qualitative research study was conducted to develop insights into how adult learners employ problem-solving and decision-making (PSDM), when considering college financing, student loans, and student debt. Using the social media Website Facebook, eight qualified participants were recruited. Participants were interviewed via telephone, and…

  11. Advances in fuzzy decision making theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.

  12. Decision making by patients: An application of naturalistic decision making theory to cervical screening and chronic renal failure, Working Paper 2006/5

    OpenAIRE

    Marion Haas

    2006-01-01

    Over their lifetime, individuals typically make many decisions about health and health care. Theoretical approaches to decision making have been dominated by a rational, analytic approach which assumes that problems are relatively fixed and well-defined and which have foreseeable and measurable endpoints. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) approaches attempt to mimic ?real world? situations where problems vary, may be defined differently by individuals with diverse perspectives and where endp...

  13. Genetic factors of individual differences in decision making in economic behavior: A Japanese twin study using the Allais problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chizuru eShikishima

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary utility even when objective information of probabilities and rewards are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more rational. We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20–47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of rational decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  14. Excessive Internet gaming and decision making: do excessive World of Warcraft players have problems in decision making under risky conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlikowski, Mirko; Brand, Matthias

    2011-08-15

    The dysfunctional behavior of excessive Internet gamers, such as preferring the immediate reward (to play World of Warcraft) despite the negative long-term consequences may be comparable with the dysfunctional behavior in substance abusers or individuals with behavioral addictions, e.g. pathological gambling. In these disorders, general decision-making deficits have been demonstrated. Hence, the aim of the present work was to examine decision-making competences of excessive World of Warcraft players. Nineteen excessive Internet gamers (EIG) and a control group (CG) consisting of 19 non-gamers were compared with respect to decision-making abilities. The Game of Dice Task (GDT) was applied to measure decision-making under risky conditions. Furthermore psychological-psychiatric symptoms were assessed in both groups. The EIG showed a reduced decision-making ability in the GDT. Furthermore the EIG group showed a higher psychological-psychiatric symptomatology in contrast to the CG. The results indicate that the reduced decision-making ability of EIG is comparable with patients with other forms of behavioral addiction (e.g. pathological gambling), impulse control disorders or substance abusers. Thus, these results suggest that excessive Internet gaming may be based on a myopia for the future, meaning that EIG prefer to play World of Warcraft despite the negative long-term consequences in social or work domains of life. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Decentralizing decision making in modularization strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Israelsen, Poul; Jørgensen, Brian

    2011-01-01

    which distorts the economic effects of modularization at the level of the individual product. This has the implication that decisions on modularization can only be made by top management if decision authority and relevant information are to be aligned. To overcome this problem, we suggest a solution...... that aligns the descriptions of the economic consequences of modularization at the project and portfolio level which makes it possible to decentralize decision making while making sure that local goals are congruent with the global ones in order to avoid suboptimal behaviour. Keywords: Modularization......; Accounting; Cost allocation; Decision rule; Decentralization...

  16. A proposal of group decision making procedure for supporting social consensus making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Yoshiaki

    1996-01-01

    Being interested in supporting social consensus making, in this paper, we have proposed a group decision making procedure through conflict resolution in the following situation: each group has a different privilege with decision making; the final goal should be evaluated by a few qualitative sub-goals besides quantitative ones. For this purpose, we have developed a step-wise procedure that has been popularly adapted when encountered with complicated and large-scale problem-solving. As well as at the value system design phase, we applied the analytic hierarchy process, AHP to decide weights standing for the privilege at the decision making phase. Then, after rearranging the hierarchy of the sub-goals depending on the nature, we have provided an iterative procedure to derive a final solution from a discrete optimization problem. To reduce the difficulties of multi-objective decision making thereat, we took a scoring method for total evaluation and applied the genetic algorithm as a solution method. Through numerical experiments applied to a planning problem of the radioactive waste management system, we have shown numerically the proposed approach is very promising for social consensus making. (author)

  17. Ethical Decision Making and Effective Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaucher, Ellie

    2010-01-01

    The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…

  18. An Elite Decision Making Harmony Search Algorithm for Optimization Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lipu Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new variant of harmony search algorithm which is inspired by a well-known item “elite decision making.” In the new algorithm, the good information captured in the current global best and the second best solutions can be well utilized to generate new solutions, following some probability rule. The generated new solution vector replaces the worst solution in the solution set, only if its fitness is better than that of the worst solution. The generating and updating steps and repeated until the near-optimal solution vector is obtained. Extensive computational comparisons are carried out by employing various standard benchmark optimization problems, including continuous design variables and integer variables minimization problems from the literature. The computational results show that the proposed new algorithm is competitive in finding solutions with the state-of-the-art harmony search variants.

  19. Sensemaking Strategies for Ethical Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caughron, Jay J; Antes, Alison L; Stenmark, Cheryl K; Thiel, Chaise E; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D

    2011-01-01

    The current study uses a sensemaking model and thinking strategies identified in earlier research to examine ethical decision-making. Using a sample of 163 undergraduates, a low fidelity simulation approach is used to study the effects personal involvement (in causing the problem and personal involvement in experiencing the outcomes of the problem) could have on the use of cognitive reasoning strategies that have been shown to promote ethical decision-making. A mediated model is presented which suggests that environmental factors influence reasoning strategies, reasoning strategies influence sensemaking, and sensemaking in turn influences ethical decision-making. Findings were mixed but generally supported the hypothesized model. Interestingly, framing the outcomes of ethically charged situations in terms of more global organizational outcomes rather than personal outcomes was found to promote the use of pro-ethical cognitive reasoning strategies.

  20. Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Alexander; Salman, Mo; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2011-04-01

    Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Two heads are better than one: the association between condom decision-making and condom use errors and problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, R; Milhausen, R; Sanders, S A; Graham, C A; Yarber, W L

    2008-06-01

    This exploratory study compared the frequency of condom use errors and problems between men reporting that condom use for penile-vaginal sex was a mutual decision compared with men making the decision unilaterally. Nearly 2000 people completed a web-based questionnaire. A sub-sample of 660 men reporting that they last used a condom for penile-vaginal sex (within the past three months) was analysed. Nine condom use errors/problems were assessed. Multivariate analyses controlled for men's age, marital status, and level of experience using condoms. Men's unilateral decision-making was associated with increased odds of removing condoms before sex ended (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.51, p = 0.002), breakage (AOR 3.90, p = 0.037), and slippage during withdrawal (AOR 2.04, p = 0.019). Men's self-reported level of experience using condoms was significantly associated with seven out of nine errors/problems, with those indicating less experience consistently reporting more errors/problems. Findings suggest that female involvement in the decision to use condoms for penile-vaginal sex may be partly protective against some condom errors/problems. Men's self-reported level of experience using condoms may be a useful indicator of the need for education designed to promote the correct use of condoms. Education programmes may benefit men by urging them to involve their female partner in condom use decisions.

  2. Biased Decision Making in Realistic Extra-Procedural Nuclear Control Room Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Emil; Kozin, Igor; Maier, Anja

    In normal operations and emergency situations, operators of nuclear control rooms rely on procedures to guide their decision making. However, in emergency situations, where several interacting problems can cause unpredictable adverse effects, these procedures may be insufficient in guiding...... improve safety by creating procedures that bear the risks of these biases in mind, or by specifically aiming to debias the users. Avenues for debiasing through design are discussed....

  3. Support for decision making and problem solving in abnormal conditions in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.; Humphreys, P.

    1985-01-01

    Under abnormal plant condition effective decision support has to take into account the operator's or other decision maker's mental model of the plant, derived from operating experience. This will be different from the engineering model incorporated in Disturbance Analysis Systems. Recently developed approaches for gaining access to the structure of this mental model provided the basis for the development of an interactive computer system capable of representing and exploring expert knowledge concerning inferences about causal patterns, starting from the information available to the operator in the control room. This system has potential application as an interactive diagnostic aid in support of decision making and problem solving during abnormal conditions. (Auth.)

  4. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  5. The multi-objective decision making methods based on MULTIMOORA and MOOSRA for the laptop selection problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aytaç Adalı, Esra; Tuş Işık, Ayşegül

    2017-06-01

    A decision making process requires the values of conflicting objectives for alternatives and the selection of the best alternative according to the needs of decision makers. Multi-objective optimization methods may provide solution for this selection. In this paper it is aimed to present the laptop selection problem based on MOORA plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) and multi-objective optimization on the basis of simple ratio analysis (MOOSRA) which are relatively new multi-objective optimization methods. The novelty of this paper is solving this problem with the MULTIMOORA and MOOSRA methods for the first time.

  6. The problem-oriented system, problem-knowledge coupling, and clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weed, L L; Zimny, N J

    1989-07-01

    The information tool to aid us in making the clinical decisions discussed in this presentation is called the PKC. Our goal with patients should be to couple the knowledge of the unique patient to the knowledge in the literature and get the best possible match. This approach requires combinatorial versus probabilistic thinking. In the real world, ideal matches are not found. Therefore, it is critical to exhaust the patient's uniqueness first and only then use probabilities to settle further uncertainties. It is an error to teach people how to deal with uncertainty instead of teaching them to clean up a great deal of the uncertainty first. Patients must be involved in this endeavor. In essence, they have a PhD in their own uniqueness, and it is this uniqueness that is very powerful in solving complex problems. This method of patient evaluation and management cannot be used with the unaided mind. It requires new and powerful information tools like the PKC. All information that is relevant to a problem should be included in the coupler. It should encompass differing points of view, and the rationale should be made explicit to clinician and patient alike. When complete, the coupler should represent an interdisciplinary compilation of questions and tests that are expected to be collected every time in the clinic for the type of problem the coupler represents. This method will provide a basis for quality control because the contents of the coupler now have defined what we expect to occur in every patient encounter.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  7. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  8. Fundamental issues of rationalization in corporate decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Marek Jacek Stankiewicz

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with the problems of the improvement of the decision-making process that is composed of two sub-systems: preparations for making a decision and taking it. Based on the multi-aspect characteristics of the essence and conditions of the decision-making process a referential model of decision-making has been proposed. The model assumes the existence of two principles that apparently may seem contradictory – the principle of rationality and the principle of creative uniqueness. Dec...

  9. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  10. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  11. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  12. Ethical safety of deep brain stimulation: A study on moral decision-making in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumagalli, Manuela; Marceglia, Sara; Cogiamanian, Filippo; Ardolino, Gianluca; Picascia, Marta; Barbieri, Sergio; Pravettoni, Gabriella; Pacchetti, Claudio; Priori, Alberto

    2015-07-01

    The possibility that deep brain stimulation (DBS) in Parkinson's disease (PD) alters patients' decisions and actions, even temporarily, raises important clinical, ethical and legal questions. Abnormal moral decision-making can lead to ethical rules violations. Previous experiments demonstrated the subthalamic (STN) activation during moral decision-making. Here we aim to study whether STN DBS can affect moral decision-making in PD patients. Eleven patients with PD and bilateral STN DBS implant performed a computerized moral task in ON and OFF stimulation conditions. A control group of PD patients without DBS implant performed the same experimental protocol. All patients underwent motor, cognitive and psychological assessments. STN stimulation was not able to modify neither reaction times nor responses to moral task both when we compared the ON and the OFF state in the same patient (reaction times, p = .416) and when we compared DBS patients with those treated only with the best medical treatment (reaction times: p = .408, responses: p = .776). Moral judgment is the result of a complex process, requiring cognitive executive functions, problem-solving, anticipations of consequences of an action, conflict processing, emotional evaluation of context and of possible outcomes, and involving different brain areas and neural circuits. Our data show that STN DBS leaves unaffected moral decisions thus implying relevant clinical and ethical implications for DBS consequences on patients' behavior, on decision-making and on judgment ability. In conclusion, the technique can be considered safe on moral behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  14. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  16. The vexing problem of defining the meaning, role and measurement of values in treatment decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Cathy; Gafni, Amiram

    2014-03-01

    Two international movements, evidence-based medicine (EBM) and shared decision-making (SDM) have grappled for some time with issues related to defining the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in their respective models of treatment decision-making. In this article, we identify and describe unresolved problems in the way that each movement addresses these issues. The starting point for this discussion is that at least two essential ingredients are needed for treatment decision-making: research information about treatment options and their potential benefits and risks; and the values/preferences of participants in the decision-making process. Both the EBM and SDM movements have encountered difficulties in defining the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in treatment decision-making. In the EBM model of practice, there is no clear and consistent definition of patient values/preferences and no guidance is provided on how to integrate these into an EBM model of practice. Methods advocated to measure patient values are also problematic. Within the SDM movement, patient values/preferences tend to be defined and measured in a restrictive and reductionist way as patient preferences for treatment options or attributes of options, while broader underlying value structures are ignored. In both models of practice, the meaning and expected role of physician values in decision-making are unclear. Values clarification exercises embedded in patient decision aids are suggested by SDM advocates to identify and communicate patient values/preferences for different treatment outcomes. Such exercises have the potential to impose a particular decision-making theory and/or process onto patients, which can change the way they think about and process information, potentially impeding them from making decisions that are consistent with their true values. The tasks of clarifying the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in treatment decision-making

  17. The Drug Reimbursement Decision-Making System in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansaripour, Amir; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Steenhoek, Adri; Redekop, William K

    2014-05-01

    Previous studies of health policies in Iran have not focused exclusively on the drug reimbursement process. The aim of this study was to describe the entire drug reimbursement process and the stakeholders, and discuss issues faced by policymakers. Review of documents describing the administrative rules and directives of stakeholders, supplemented by published statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers. Iran has a systematic process for the assessment, appraisal, and judgment of drug reimbursements. The two most important organizations in this process are the Food and Drug Organization, which considers clinical effectiveness, safety, and economic issues, and the Supreme Council of Health Insurance, which considers various criteria, including budget impact and cost-effectiveness. Ultimately, the Iranian Cabinet approves a drug and recommends its use to all health insurance organizations. Reimbursed drugs account for about 53.5% of all available drugs and 77.3% of drug expenditures. Despite its strengths, the system faces various issues, including conflicting stakeholder aims, lengthy decision-making duration, limited access to decision-making details, and rigidity in the assessment process. The Iranian drug reimbursement system uses decision-making criteria and a structured approach similar to those in other countries. Important shortcomings in the system include out-of-pocket contributions due to lengthy decision making, lack of transparency, and conflicting interests among stakeholders. Iranian policymakers should consider a number of ways to remedy these problems, such as case studies of individual drugs and closer examination of experiences in other countries. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  19. Breast compression – An exploration of problem solving and decision-making in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nightingale, J.M.; Murphy, F.J.; Robinson, L.; Newton-Hughes, A.; Hogg, P.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Breast compression decreases radiation dose and reduces potential for motion and geometric unsharpness, yet there is variability in applied compression force within and between some centres. This article explores the problem solving process applied to the application of breast compression force from the mammography practitioners' perspective. Methods: A qualitative analysis was undertaken using an existing full data set of transcribed qualitative data collected in a phenomenological study of mammography practitioner values, behaviours and beliefs. The data emerged from focus groups conducted at six NHS breast screening centres in England (participant n = 41), and semi-structured interviews with mammography educators (n = 6). A researcher followed a thematic content analysis process to extract data related to mammography compression problem solving, developing a series of categories, themes and sub-themes. Emerging themes were then peer-validated by two other researchers, and developed into a model of practice. Results: Seven consecutive stages contributed towards compression force problem solving: assessing the request; first impressions; explanations and consent; handling the breast and positioning; applying compression force; final adjustments; feedback. The model captures information gathering, problem framing, problem solving and decision making which inform an ‘ideal’ compression scenario. Behavioural problem solving, heuristics and intuitive decision making are reflected within this model. Conclusion: The application of compression should no longer be considered as one single task within mammography, but is now recognised as a seven stage problem solving continuum. This continuum model is the first to be applied to mammography, and is adaptable and transferable to other radiography practice settings. - Highlights: • Mammography compression should no longer be considered as one single examination task. • A seven stage breast

  20. Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Johannes; Lengyel, Máté

    2016-02-03

    Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules

  1. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities ers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  2. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  3. Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

    2010-01-01

    We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

  4. Use of the Safety Monitor in operational decision-making at a nuclear generating facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chien, Shan H.; Hook, Thomas G.; Lee, Roger J.

    1998-01-01

    The utilization of Safety Monitor at a nuclear generating facility in 1994 revolutionized the way US nuclear power plants manage configuration risks. At Southern California Edison (SCE) Company's San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, it transformed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) from a retrospective tool for understanding past risk into a prospective tool for controlling future risk. Since that time, many other nuclear utilities have taken aggressive steps in using PRA better to understand and manage risks associated with plant operation and maintenance. These utilities have employed a variety of methods ranging from systems similar to San Onofre's Safety Monitor to systems dramatically different in both technology and philosophy. In the development and use of its Safety Monitor, SCE has been guided by two philosophical goals: (1) maximize the objectivity of PRA-informed decision-making relative to managing configuration risks, and (2) ensure that risks are managed conservatively

  5. Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükrü Ada

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

  6. Extended value-impact decision making methodology for nuclear power plant modifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P.F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1985-01-01

    Value-impact is the term used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to define what is traditionally known as cost-benefit analysis; values measure the beneficial consequences of a proposed action, impacts measure the adverse consequences, i.e. costs of the proposed action. In the regulatory framework, value-impact or cost-benefit is but one input to decision making. The present study was performed in order to illustrate how decision makers can utilize a more structured method for determining nuclear regulatory policy. In order to be useful, the method must treat all dominant factors that influence a decision; including economic, as well as societal factors such as environmental, health and safety. The method must also allow decisions to be consistent with the preferences of the decision maker as well as other interested groups. Major problems in decision making are how to incorporate non-quantifiable attributes in the method and how to reach consensus between opposing viewpoints. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can attack these issues by making it possible to structure the decision in a way that subjective input can be included. In this paper, the AHP is developed and used to rank the value/impact ratios of alternative decay heat removal systems. It is believed that use of the AHP can decrease limitations present in a current value-impact analysis

  7. "Piensa" twice: on the foreign language effect in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Albert; Foucart, Alice; Arnon, Inbal; Aparici, Melina; Apesteguia, Jose

    2014-02-01

    In this article, we assess to what extent decision making is affected by the language in which a given problem is presented (native vs. foreign). In particular, we aim to ask whether the impact of various heuristic biases in decision making is diminished when the problems are presented in a foreign language. To this end, we report four main studies in which more than 700 participants were tested on different types of individual decision making problems. In the first study, we replicated Keysar et al.'s (2012) recent observation regarding the foreign language effect on framing effects related to loss aversion. In the second section, we assessed whether the foreign language effect is present in other types of framing problems that involve psychological accounting biases rather than gain/loss dichotomies. In the third section, we studied the foreign language effect in several key aspects of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. In the fourth study, we assessed the presence of a foreign language effect in the cognitive reflection test, a test that includes logical problems that do not carry emotional connotations. The absence of such an effect in this test suggests that foreign language leads to a reduction of heuristic biases in decision making across a range of decision making situations and provide also some evidence about the boundaries of the phenomenon. We explore several potential factors that may underlie the foreign language effect in decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A Game-Chain-Based Approach for Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    An, Tingyu; Watanabe, tsunami

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays, with the rapid development of information society, decision-making problems become more and more complicated especially in large scale systems such as infrastructure, environmental and industrial fields, which are usually accompanied by psychological competition between involved parties in a complicated, uncertain and dynamic situation. From a holistic perspective of system, a specific decision-making method which is described as game-chain-based decision making has been proposed in...

  9. Mixed Frames and Risky Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jiaxi; Zhang, Jiaxi; Sun, Hao; Zeng, Zhicong; Mai, Yuexia; Miao, Danmin

    2017-01-01

    By applying unitive vocabulary, "die" or "save," to respective frames of the Asian disease problem, Tversky and Kahneman were able to define framing effect. In this study, we preliminarily explored the effect of mixed frames, which are characterized by the use of different vocabulary in one frame. In study 1, we found that only the sure option description had significant effect on decision-making, while the effects of risky option descriptions were not significant, nor were interactions between descriptions. In study 2, the results suggested that after controlling the effects of the hedonic tone of the sure options, risky option description did not significantly predict decision-making. In study 3, we found that neither the sure-to-risky option presentation order nor presentation order within risky options had significant effect on decision-making. We thus concluded that sure option description can serve as the decision-making foundation (reference point) for decision-makers in mixed frames.

  10. INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

    1980-08-01

    This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

  11. Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods Volume 2

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, R Venkata

    2013-01-01

    Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods presents the concepts and details of applications of MADM methods. A range of methods are covered including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Preference Ranking METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realité (ELECTRE), COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), UTility Additive (UTA), and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The existing MADM methods are improved upon and three novel multiple attribute decision making methods for solving the decision making problems of the manufacturing environment are proposed. The concept of integrated weights is introduced in the proposed subjective and objective integrated weights (SOIW) method and the weighted Euclidean distance ba...

  12. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  13. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  14. Group decision-making: Factors that affect group effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Osmani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Organizations are operating in a dynamic and turbulent environment. In these conditions, they have to make decisions for new problems or situations. Most of decisions are therefore non-programmed and unstructured, accompanied by risk and uncertainty. Moreover, the problems and situations are complex. All organizations are oriented towards group decisionmaking processes, as useful tools to cope with uncertainty and complexity. Apart from the necessity, companies are turning towards participatory processes also to benefit from the important advantages that these processes offer. Organizations have realized the importance of group decision-making processes to contribute to the creation of sustainable competitive advantages. Main objective of this paper is to show that group decision-making processes do not offer guarantee for good decisions, because the effectiveness of group is affected by many factors. So, the first thing done in this paper is discussing about the benefits and limitations that accompany the use of groups with decision-making purpose. Afterwards, we stop on the different factors that influence the group’s ability to make good decisions. The aim is to emphasize that regardless of the many advantages of groups, some factors as group size, type of communication within the group, leadership style, the norms, the differentiation of roles and statuses, cohesion and compliance degree should be the main elements to keep into consideration because they affect the effectiveness of group. In this regard, is discussed how such factors influence the quality of decision and then we try to draw some conclusions that can improve and make better and easier group decision-making processes.

  15. Strategy and skills for moral decision-making in business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.J. Rossouw

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available Business Ethics is a truly interdisciplinary field of study. The specific issue of moral decision-making within the field of business ethics testifies to this. Recently some have made important contributions in this regard - contributions in which they emphasised that moral theory is not sufficient for moral decision-making. What is needed besides moral theory is problem-solving ability. In this article the same point is argued, but from a philosophical perspective. It is further indicated that problem-solving ability entails more than merely a strategy fo r making moral decisions. It should also include the development of the thinking skills which are demanded by the strategy chosen fo r problem resolution.

  16. The Effectiveness of the Training of Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills on the Reduction of Addicts’ Positive Attitudes to Narcotics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farxaneh Bahrami

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the training of problem-solving and decision-making skills on the reduction of addicts’ positive attitudes to narcotics. Method: The design of this study was experimental design namely: pre and post test with control group. The population included all addicts referring to Sanandaj self-report centers (500 addicts. By random sampling, 60 addicts were selected and completed the attitude questionnaire to narcotics use. Each of experimental groups was under problem-solving and decision-making skills training for ten 90 minute sessions. No training given to control group. Results: After training, two experimental groups significantly had lower levels of positive attitude to narcotics use. No difference was observed between two experimental groups. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that the training of problem-solving and decision-making skills can reduce the addicts’ positive attitudes to narcotics.

  17. The illusion of handy wins: Problem gambling, chasing, and affective decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Giovanna; Ciccarelli, Maria; Cosenza, Marina

    2018-01-01

    Chasing losses is a behavioral marker and a diagnostic criterion for gambling disorder. It consists in continuing gambling to recoup previous losses. Although chasing has been recognized playing a central role in gambling disorder, research on this topic is relatively scarce, and it remains unclear whether chasing affects decision-making in behavioral tasks in which participants gain or loss some money. Even if several studies found that the more the gambling involvement, the poorer the decision-making, to date no research investigated the role of chasing in decision-making. The study aimed to first investigate the relation between chasing and decision-making in adult gamblers. One hundred and four VLT players were administered the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), a computerized task measuring chasing, and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Correlation analysis showed that the higher the SOGS scores, the higher the propensity to chase, and the poorer the decision-making performance. Regression analysis revealed that chasing propensity and gambling severity predicted IGT performance. Mediation analysis indicated that the association between gambling severity and poor decision-making is mediated by chasing. Gambling severity was assessed by means of a self-report measure. The generalizability of findings is limited, since the study focused only on VLT players. This study provides the first evidence that chasing, along with gambling severity, affects decision-making, at least in behavioral tasks involving money. Since chasers and non-chasers could be two different sub-types of gamblers, treatment protocols should take into account the additive role of chasing in gambling disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantified reliability and risk assessment methodology in safety evaluation and licensing: survey of practice and trends in E.C. countries; partial contribution in decision making, perpective of safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.F.

    1982-01-01

    Quantified reliability analysis of structures and systems and the quantified risk-concept is increasingly developed and applied in safety evaluation and in the licensing/regulatory process where deterministic approaches are however still predominant. A description of the types of application and a survey of the diversified opinions and the problem areas (e.g. the validity of input data, uncertainties in consequence modelling, human factors, common mode failures, etc.) are given. The significance of quantified risk assessment and comparisons, as one of the contributors in the solution to acceptability of modern technology such as nuclear power production, is discussed. Other contributions, such as benefit assessment and cost-efficiency of risk reduction, are also put into perspective within the decision-making process and in the problem of actual acceptance of new technologies. The growing need of developing and agreeing on overall safety objectives (how safe is safe enough) is finally discussed, in the light of the increasing diversity of approaches in the interconnected areas of accident hypotheses/sequences, siting parameters and technical bases for emergency planning; the latter problem being also closely connected to decisional processes for acceptability and to actual acceptance

  19. Health risk from radioactive and chemical environmental contamination: common basis for assessment and safety decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.

    2004-01-01

    To meet the growing practical need in risk analysis in Russia health risk assessment tools and regulations have been developed in the frame of few federal research programs. RRC Kurchatov Institute is involved in R and D on risk analysis activity in these programs. One of the objectives of this development is to produce a common, unified basis of health risk analysis for different sources of risk. Current specific and different approaches in risk assessment and establishing safety standards developed for chemicals and ionising radiation are analysed. Some recommendations are given to produce the common approach. A specific risk index R has been proposed for safety decision-making (establishing safety standards and other levels of protective actions, comparison of various sources of risk, etc.). The index R is defined as the partial mathematical expectation of lost years of healthy life (LLE) due to exposure during a year to a risk source considered. The more concrete determinations of this index for different risk sources derived from the common definition of R are given. Generic safety standards (GSS) for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index. Secondary specific safety standards have been derived from GSS for ionizing radiation and a number of other risk sources including environmental chemical pollutants. Other general and derived levels for decision-making have also been proposed including the e-minimum level. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data is shortly considered. Recommendations are given on methods and criteria for comparison of various sources of risk. Some examples of risk comparison are demonstrated in the frame of different comparison tasks. The paper has been prepared on the basis of the research work supported by International Science and Technology Centre, Moscow (project no. 2558). (author)

  20. Guide to Decision-Making Getting it more right than wrong

    CERN Document Server

    Drummond, Helga

    2012-01-01

    We make decisions, and these decisions make us and our organisations. And in theory, decision-making should be easy: a problem is identified, the decision-makers generate solutions, and choose the optimal one - and powerful mathematical tools are available to facilitate the task. Yet if it is all so simple why do organisations, both private and public sector, keep making mistakes - the results of which are borne by shareholders, employees, taxpayers and ultimately society at large? This guide to decision making. by leading decision science academic Helga Drummond, aims to improve decision-maki

  1. Maintenance program decision-making utilizing crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    This document describes methods that may be used by UDOT Maintenance personnel to improve highway safety. Four programs have been recommended using crash data to make more informed decisions concerning maintenance programs as follows: : Snow & Ic...

  2. Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

  3. Three Essays on Economic Agents' Incentives and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Dongryul

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on theoretical analysis of economic agents' decision making and incentives. Chapter 1 gives an outline of the subjects to be examined in the subsequent chapters and shows their conclusions in brief. Chapter 2 explores the decision problem of a superordinate (a principal) regarding whether to delegate its authority or right to make a decision to a subordinate (an agent) in an organization. We first study the optimal contracting problem of the su...

  4. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed

    2016-05-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi

  5. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

  6. Toward a psychology of surrogate decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Tunney, Richard J.; Ziegler, Fenja

    2016-01-01

    Many of the decisions that we make in everyday life are made for the benefit of other people. However, research suggests that people often make decisions on behalf of other people that are different from those that the other person would choose for himself or herself. This raises practical problems in the case of legally designated surrogate decision-makers who may not meet the legal normative benchmark — the substituted judgment standard. We review evidence from our own ...

  7. A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John eFox

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.

  8. A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

  9. Neutrosophic Logic Applied to Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albeanu, Grigore; Burtschy, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Decision making addresses the usage of various methods to select "the best", in some way, alternative strategy (from many available) when a problem is given for solving. The authors propose the usage of neutrosophic way of thinking, called also Smarandache's logic, to select a model by experts when...... degrees of trustability, ultrastability (falsehood), and indeterminacy are used to decide. The procedures deal with multi-attribute neutrosophic decision making and a case study on e-learning software objects is presented....

  10. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  11. Community facilitation of problem structuring and decision making processes: Experiences from the EU LEADER+ programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on the work carried out supporting a rural community in Denmark under the LEADER+ programme. This is a programme that supports development in particularly vulnerable rural regions of the European countries members of EU. It supports creative and innovative projects that can...... contribute to long-term and sustainable development in these regions. The main tasks have been the organisation and facilitation of conferences and workshops to structure the problematic situation of identifying and designing innovative projects for the development of the community and to support decision...... making processes related to the agreement on action plans. Learning to design, plan, manage and facilitate conferences and workshops have also being another central activity. The main purpose of these conferences and workshops was not only problem structuring and decision making in connection...

  12. Increased ventral-striatal activity during monetary decision making is a marker of problem poker gambling severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevers, Damien; Noël, Xavier; He, Qinghua; Melrose, James A; Bechara, Antoine

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the impact of different neural systems on monetary decision making in frequent poker gamblers, who vary in their degree of problem gambling. Fifteen frequent poker players, ranging from non-problem to high-problem gambling, and 15 non-gambler controls were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). During IGT deck selection, between-group fMRI analyses showed that frequent poker gamblers exhibited higher ventral-striatal but lower dorsolateral prefrontal and orbitofrontal activations as compared with controls. Moreover, using functional connectivity analyses, we observed higher ventral-striatal connectivity in poker players, and in regions involved in attentional/motor control (posterior cingulate), visual (occipital gyrus) and auditory (temporal gyrus) processing. In poker gamblers, scores of problem gambling severity were positively associated with ventral-striatal activations and with the connectivity between the ventral-striatum seed and the occipital fusiform gyrus and the middle temporal gyrus. Present results are consistent with findings from recent brain imaging studies showing that gambling disorder is associated with heightened motivational-reward processes during monetary decision making, which may hamper one's ability to moderate his level of monetary risk taking. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  13. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  14. Clinical decision-making of rural novice nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seright, T J

    2011-01-01

    their careers. These novice nurses were often working with a limited staff, while managing an ever-changing census and acuity of patients. The significance of interdependence and welcoming relationships with their co-workers and directors of nursing was pivotal in the clinical decision-making process. Despite access to a number of resources at their disposal (including policy books, decision trees, standing orders, textbooks, and in some cases internet resources), the 12 nurses in this study indicated collaboration with co-workers was a major means of facilitating their decision-making. Rural novice nurses require facilitation of social skills as much as critical thinking skills both within their programs of nursing and during their new employee orientation; however, decision-making must be guided by more experienced nurses who are willing to mentor novice nurses and advise them to to reflect upon their decisions as they care for patients using evidenced based practice. In a rural setting, this is especially important because novice nurses are tasked early in their career with decision-making, which often involves ill-structured problems set in dynamic and changing environments, in high-stakes situations where patient safety is a concern.

  15. The emergency patient's participation in medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li-Hsiang; Goopy, Suzanne; Lin, Chun-Chih; Barnard, Alan; Han, Chin-Yen; Liu, Hsueh-Erh

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to explore the medical decision-making processes of patients in emergency departments. Studies indicate that patients should be given enough time to acquire relevant information and receive adequate support when they need to make medical decisions. It is difficult to satisfy these requirements in emergency situations. Limited research has addressed the topic of decision-making among emergency patients. This qualitative study used a broadly defined grounded theory approach to explore decision-making in an emergency department in Taiwan. Thirty emergency patients were recruited between June and December 2011 for semi-structured interviews that were audio-taped and transcribed verbatim. The study identified three stages in medical decision-making by emergency patients: predecision (interpreting the problem); decision (a balancing act) and postdecision (reclaiming the self). Transference was identified as the core category and pattern of behaviour through which patients resolved their main concerns. This transference around decision-making represents a type of bricolage. The findings fill a gap in knowledge about the decision-making process among emergency patients. The results inform emergency professionals seeking to support patients faced with complex medical decision-making and suggest an emphasis on informed patient decision-making, advocacy, patient-centred care and in-service education of health staff. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  17. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  18. Intersubjective decision-making for computer-aided forging technology design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanyukov, S. I.; Konovalov, A. V.; Muizemnek, O. Yu.

    2017-12-01

    We propose a concept of intersubjective decision-making for problems of open-die forging technology design. The intersubjective decisions are chosen from a set of feasible decisions using the fundamentals of the decision-making theory in fuzzy environment according to the Bellman-Zadeh scheme. We consider the formalization of subjective goals and the choice of membership functions for the decisions depending on subjective goals. We study the arrangement of these functions into an intersubjective membership function. The function is constructed for a resulting decision, which is chosen from a set of feasible decisions. The choice of the final intersubjective decision is discussed. All the issues are exemplified by a specific technological problem. The considered concept of solving technological problems under conditions of fuzzy goals allows one to choose the most efficient decisions from a set of feasible ones. These decisions correspond to the stated goals. The concept allows one to reduce human participation in automated design. This concept can be used to develop algorithms and design programs for forging numerous types of forged parts.

  19. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  20. Decision-making in diabetes mellitus type 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustad, James K; Musselman, Dominique L; Skyler, Jay S; Matheson, Della; Delamater, Alan; Kenyon, Norma S; Cáceda, Ricardo; Nemeroff, Charles B

    2013-01-01

    Decreased treatment adherence in patients with diabetes mellitus type 1 (type 1 DM) may reflect impairments in decision-making and underlying associated deficits in working memory and executive functioning. Other factors, including comorbid major depression, may also interfere with decision-making. The authors sought to review the clinically relevant characteristics of decision-making in type 1 DM by surveying the literature on decision-making by patients with type 1 DM. Deficiencies in decision-making in patients with type 1 DM or their caregivers contribute to treatment nonadherence and poorer metabolic control. Animal models of type 1 DM reveal deficits in hippocampal-dependent memory tasks, which are reversible with insulin. Neurocognitive studies of patients with type 1 DM reveal lowered performance on ability to apply knowledge to solve problems in a new situation and acquired scholarly knowledge, psychomotor efficiency, cognitive flexibility, visual perception, speed of information-processing, and sustained attention. Other factors that might contribute to poor decision-making in patients with type 1 DM, include "hypoglycemia unawareness" and comorbid major depression (given its increased prevalence in type 1 DM). Future studies utilizing novel treatment strategies to help patients with type 1 DM make better decisions about their disease may improve their glycemic control and quality of life, while minimizing the impact of end-organ disease.

  1. The Use Of Business Games In Problem Solving And Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Skiltere, D.; Bausova, I.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the research is to demonstrate possibilities of simulation games in education process; in managerial ability compliance tests; for training of managers in small and middle business; in decision-making. The use of simulation games in decision making gives an opportunity to prevent these drawbacks, although this kind of the use of the games is not the most complicated, labour–consuming and eventually the most expensive.

  2. The Effects of Advanced 'Glass Cockpit' Displayed Flight Instrumentation on In-flight Pilot Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steigerwald, John

    The Cognitive Continuum Theory (CCT) was first proposed 25 years ago to explain the relationship between intuition and analytical decision making processes. In order for aircraft pilots to make these analytical and intuitive decisions, they obtain information from various instruments within the cockpit of the aircraft. Advanced instrumentation is used to provide a broad array of information about the aircraft condition and flight situation to aid the flight crew in making effective decisions. The problem addressed is that advanced instrumentation has not improved the pilot decision making in modern aircraft. Because making a decision is dependent upon the information available, this experimental quantitative study sought to determine how well pilots organize and interpret information obtained from various cockpit instrumentation displays when under time pressure. The population for this study was the students, flight instructors, and aviation faculty at the Middle Georgia State College School of Aviation campus in Eastman, Georgia. The sample was comprised of two groups of 90 individuals (45 in each group) in various stages of pilot licensure from student pilot to airline transport pilot (ATP). The ages ranged from 18 to 55 years old. There was a statistically significant relationship at the p safety of flight.

  3. An intelligent, knowledge-based multiple criteria decision making advisor for systems design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongchang

    In systems engineering, design and operation of systems are two main problems which always attract researcher's attentions. The accomplishment of activities in these problems often requires proper decisions to be made so that the desired goal can be achieved, thus, decision making needs to be carefully fulfilled in the design and operation of systems. Design is a decision making process which permeates through out the design process, and is at the core of all design activities. In modern aircraft design, more and more attention is paid to the conceptual and preliminary design phases so as to increase the odds of choosing a design that will ultimately be successful at the completion of the design process, therefore, decisions made during these early design stages play a critical role in determining the success of a design. Since aerospace systems are complex systems with interacting disciplines and technologies, the Decision Makers (DMs) dealing with such design problems are involved in balancing the multiple, potentially conflicting attributes/criteria, transforming a large amount of customer supplied guidelines into a solidly defined set of requirement definitions. Thus, one could state with confidence that modern aerospace system design is a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. A variety of existing decision making methods are available to deal with this type of decision problems. The selection of the most appropriate decision making method is of particular importance since inappropriate decision methods are likely causes of misleading engineering design decisions. With no sufficient knowledge about each of the methods, it is usually difficult for the DMs to find an appropriate analytical model capable of solving their problems. In addition, with the complexity of the decision problem and the demand for more capable methods increasing, new decision making methods are emerging with time. These various methods exacerbate the difficulty of the selection

  4. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  5. Strategic Control in Decision Making under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott

    2012-01-01

    Complex economic decisions – whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget – often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, to evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and to flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research implicates the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control while the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue both for generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and for specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are also likely to be critical for decision making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. PMID:22487037

  6. Nurses' perspectives on the intersection of safety and informed decision making in maternity care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Carrie H; Zlatnik, Marya G; Kennedy, Holly Powell; Lyndon, Audrey

    2013-01-01

    To explore maternity nurses' perceptions of women's informed decision making during labor and birth to better understand how interdisciplinary communication challenges might affect patient safety. Constructivist grounded theory. Four hospitals in the western United States. Forty-six (46) nurses and physicians practicing in maternity units. Data collection strategies included individual interviews and participant observation. Data were analyzed using the constant comparative method, dimensional analysis, and situational analysis (Charmaz, 2006; Clarke, 2005; Schatzman, 1991). The nurses' central action of holding off harm encompassed three communication strategies: persuading agreement, managing information, and coaching of mothers and physicians. These strategies were executed in a complex, hierarchical context characterized by varied practice patterns and relationships. Nurses' priorities and patient safety goals were sometimes misaligned with those of physicians, resulting in potentially unsafe communication. The communication strategies nurses employed resulted in intended and unintended consequences with safety implications for mothers and providers and had the potential to trap women in the middle of interprofessional conflicts and differences of opinion. © 2013 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  7. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  8. IT portfolio decision-making in local governments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger Nielsen, Jeppe; Pedersen, Keld

    2014-01-01

    by the IT PPM literature) plays a minor role. Our account also reveals how the decision-making practices create IT portfolio problems and in some aspects is considered to have a negative impact on the outcome of e-government investments. Our analysis and previous research into decision-making allows us to argue......IT project portfolio management (IT PPM) has evolved into a significant area of research interest, but we know little about IT PPM practices in public sector organizations. Therefore this article investigates decision-making processes in the IT PPM practices of local governments, and discusses how...... these practices match the normative advice proposed by the IT PPMliterature.We rely on decision-making theories togetherwith case-studies of four Danish local governments.We find that politics, intuition and coincidence play a crucial role in IT PPM decisionmaking, while technical rationality (as proposed...

  9. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orechwa, Y.

    2004-01-01

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  10. Solving the Problem of Multiple-Criteria Building Design Decisions with respect to the Fire Safety of Occupants: An Approach Based on Probabilistic Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Rytas Vaidogas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The design of buildings may include a comparison of alternative architectural and structural solutions. They can be developed at different levels of design process. The alternative design solutions are compared and ranked by applying methods of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM. Each design is characterised by a number of criteria used in a MCDM problem. The paper discusses how to choose MCDM criteria expressing fire safety related to alternative designs. Probability of a successful evacuation of occupants from a building fire and difference between evacuation time and time to untenable conditions are suggested as the most important criteria related to fire safety. These two criteria are treated as uncertain quantities expressed by probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation of fire and evacuation processes is natural means for an estimation of these distributions. The presence of uncertain criteria requires applying stochastic MCDM methods for ranking alternative designs. An application of the safety-related criteria is illustrated by an example which analyses three alternative architectural floor plans prepared for a reconstruction of a medical building. A MCDM method based on stochastic simulation is used to solve the example problem.

  11. Regulatory approach to risk informed decision making in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chande, S.K.; Koley, J.

    2001-01-01

    Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), the authority for licensing and monitoring safety in Indian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), makes use of insights gained from PSA together with the results of the other deterministic analyses in taking decisions regarding the acceptability of the safety of the NPPs. PSA provides an estimation of risks; it also gives information on a balanced design by revealing interaction between engineered features and weak areas in a design. For regulatory use, PSA needs to be carried out using standardized methodology and state of the art technology. PSA helps regulators in taking faster and consistent decisions. Keeping in mind the limitations associated with PSA study, AERB has decided to adopt risk-informed decision making in regulatory licensing process. This paper describes the AERB policy regarding PSA and gives an overview of the experience in this area. (author)

  12. Making interactive decision support for patients a reality.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evans, R.W.; Elwyn, G.; Edwards, A.

    2004-01-01

    Interactive decision support applications might help patients to make difficult decisions about their health care. They lie in the context of traditional decision aids, which are known to have effects on a number of patient outcomes, including knowledge and decisional conflict. The problem of

  13. Transformative decision rules, permutability, and non-sequential framing of decision problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterson, M.B.

    2004-01-01

    The concept of transformative decision rules provides auseful tool for analyzing what is often referred to as the`framing', or `problem specification', or `editing' phase ofdecision making. In the present study we analyze a fundamentalaspect of transformative decision rules, viz. permutability. A

  14. Pilot Convective Weather Decision Making in En Route Airspace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-Chieh; Gooding, Cary L.; Shelley, Alexandra E.; Duong, Constance G.; Johnson, Walter W.

    2012-01-01

    The present research investigates characteristics exhibited in pilot convective weather decision making in en route airspace. In a part-task study, pilots performed weather avoidance under various encounter scenarios. Results showed that the margins of safety that pilots maintain from storms are as fluid as deviation decisions themselves.

  15. Durable decision-making is central to the control of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebroski, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    In several capacities the author has promoted the importance of risk analysis techniques as a rational path to the improved assurance of safety. The interest in decisions arose from the persistent observation of only moderate or minor impacts or benefits to practical operations from the availability of wall documented risk analysis studies for many nuclear units. The complexity and number of variables in decisions on matters of safety of large scale operations defies ordinary intuitive decision making. The structured decision process is not a panacea, but is often the practical tool of choise for managing complexity in an orderly way. Typical basic sources for decision techniques are listed in references. (orig.)

  16. Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

  17. Crisis Management: Psychological and Sociological Factors in Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    Section A. Cognitive Prooeaes While what has been a Ued the " rational model" of decision - making may not adequately account for the operation of the...obstacles blocking rational decision - making . 7. What part does fatigue play in reacting to a crisis? Fatigue results from two factors. First...further important question of the impact of these variables on decision - making . It is a difficult theoretical problem to link the maladaptive emotional

  18. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  19. Nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirey, Maria R; Ebright, Patricia R; McDaniel, Anna M

    2013-01-01

      The present study provides insight into nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.   Little is known about nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Because nurse manager decisions have the potential to impact patient care quality and safety, understanding their decision-making processes is useful for designing supportive interventions.   This qualitative descriptive study interviewed 21 nurse managers from three hospitals to answer the research question: What decision-making processes do nurse managers utilize to address stressful situations in their nurse manager role? Face-to-face interviews incorporating components of the Critical Decision Method illuminated expert-novice practice differences. Content analysis identified one major theme and three sub-themes.   The present study produced a cognitive model that guides nurse manager decision-making related to stressful situations. Experience in the role, organizational context and situation factors influenced nurse manager cognitive decision-making processes.   Study findings suggest that chronic exposure to stress and work complexity negatively affects nurse manager health and their decision-making processes potentially threatening individual, patient and organizational outcomes.   Cognitive decision-making varies based on nurse manager experience and these differences have coaching and mentoring implications. This present study contributes a current understanding of nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration Supply Chain Integration

    CERN Document Server

    Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde

    2012-01-01

    Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management.  Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...

  1. Capturing a Commander's decision making style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer

    2017-05-01

    A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.

  2. The hidden traps in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, J S; Keeney, R L; Raiffa, H

    1998-01-01

    Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.

  3. Decision-making process to shut down, refurbish/modify, or decommission research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stover, R.L.; Murphie, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Most US research reactors were built more than 20 years ago and some more than 40 years ago. Many have undergone refurbishments and modifications to update their safety systems and experimental capabilities. But changing safety bases, social concerns, and budget constraints have required research reactor operators to continually make decisions to shut down or refurbish/modify their facilities. These decisions involve potential replacement of reactor equipment that has reached its lifetime limits. Changes in philosophy and operation of the reactors are also factors to be considered. In this paper, each of the four factors involved in the decision-making process are discussed in detail. Then, several examples from DOE research reactors in the United States are discussed. Finally, some general conclusions are given to aid in the decision-making process

  4. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  5. Efficient decision-making by volume-conserving physical object

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Song-Ju; Aono, Masashi; Nameda, Etsushi

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making is one of the most important intellectual abilities of not only humans but also other biological organisms, helping their survival. This ability, however, may not be limited to biological systems and may be exhibited by physical systems. Here we demonstrate that any physical object, as long as its volume is conserved when coupled with suitable operations, provides a sophisticated decision-making capability. We consider the multi-armed bandit problem (MBP), the problem of finding, as accurately and quickly as possible, the most profitable option from a set of options that gives stochastic rewards. Efficient MBP solvers are useful for many practical applications, because MBP abstracts a variety of decision-making problems in real-world situations in which an efficient trial-and-error is required. These decisions are made as dictated by a physical object, which is moved in a manner similar to the fluctuations of a rigid body in a tug-of-war (TOW) game. This method, called ‘TOW dynamics’, exhibits higher efficiency than conventional reinforcement learning algorithms. We show analytical calculations that validate statistical reasons for TOW dynamics to produce the high performance despite its simplicity. These results imply that various physical systems in which some conservation law holds can be used to implement an efficient ‘decision-making object’. The proposed scheme will provide a new perspective to open up a physics-based analog computing paradigm and to understanding the biological information-processing principles that exploit their underlying physics. (paper)

  6. Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.

    2016-01-01

    The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.

  7. Probability and uncertainty in nuclear safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1986-01-01

    In this paper, we examine some problems posed by the use of probabilities in Nuclear Safety decisions. We discuss some of the theoretical difficulties due to the collective nature of regulatory decisions, and, in particular, the calibration and the aggregation of risk information (e.g., experts opinions). We argue that, if one chooses numerical safety goals as a regulatory basis, one can reduce the constraints to an individual safety goal and a cost-benefit criterion. We show the relevance of risk uncertainties in this kind of regulatory framework. We conclude that, whereas expected values of future failure frequencies are adequate to show compliance with economic constraints, the use of a fractile (e.g., 95%) to be specified by the regulatory agency is justified to treat hazard uncertainties for the individual safety goal. (orig.)

  8. Decision Making and Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  9. Dynamic decision making without expected utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves

    2006-01-01

    Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... maker’s discordant goals at the different decision nodes. Relative to the computations involved in the standard expected utility evaluation of a decision problem, the main computational increase is due to the identification of non-dominated strategies by linear programming. A simulation, using the rank...

  10. Further Understanding of the Food Safety Problem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xingxing; MEI; Zhongchao; FENG; Pinghua; HE; Yawen; GAO; Yuqin; DAI

    2015-01-01

    Frequent occurrence of food quality and safety proves that it is not effective to solve the Problem only from mechanism and supervision mechanism. Instead,it may expand solution ideas from external environment inducing changes of social institutions. Edible agricultural products are raw materials of foods,so their quality and safety are decisive for food quality and safety. Combining with concept of quality and safety of edible agricultural products,from social economy,science,technology and culture,environment cognition,this paper made a further understanding of food quality and safety. It found that the quality and safety of domestic edible agricultural products are not completely resulted from human factor,and not completely quality and safety problem in practical sense. Design of problem solutions should consider such external factors as economic level and consumption concept,dual character of science and technology,cultural quality of the masses,and moral trait of the masses,and enhance matching of building of regulation tools with external environment.

  11. Indicators of Informal and Formal Decision-Making about a Socioscientific Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauer, Jenny M.; Lute, Michelle L.; Straka, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    We propose two contrasting types of student decision-making based on social and cognitive psychology models of separate mental processes for problem solving. Informal decision-making uses intuitive reasoning and is subject to cognitive biases, whereas formal decision-making uses effortful, logical reasoning. We explored indicators of students'…

  12. Strategic control in decision-making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott A

    2012-04-01

    Complex economic decisions - whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget - often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research has implicated the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision-making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision-making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control, whereas the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue for both generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are likely to be critical for decision-making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulff, H R

    1981-01-01

    An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

  14. Housing decision making methods for initiation development phase process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina

    2017-10-01

    Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.

  15. Patient-Centered Robot-Aided Passive Neurorehabilitation Exercise Based on Safety-Motion Decision-Making Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lizheng Pan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety is one of the crucial issues for robot-aided neurorehabilitation exercise. When it comes to the passive rehabilitation training for stroke patients, the existing control strategies are usually just based on position control to carry out the training, and the patient is out of the controller. However, to some extent, the patient should be taken as a “cooperator” of the training activity, and the movement speed and range of the training movement should be dynamically regulated according to the internal or external state of the subject, just as what the therapist does in clinical therapy. This research presents a novel motion control strategy for patient-centered robot-aided passive neurorehabilitation exercise from the point of the safety. The safety-motion decision-making mechanism is developed to online observe and assess the physical state of training impaired-limb and motion performances and regulate the training parameters (motion speed and training rage, ensuring the safety of the supplied rehabilitation exercise. Meanwhile, position-based impedance control is employed to realize the trajectory tracking motion with interactive compliance. Functional experiments and clinical experiments are investigated with a healthy adult and four recruited stroke patients, respectively. The two types of experimental results demonstrate that the suggested control strategy not only serves with safety-motion training but also presents rehabilitation efficacy.

  16. Decision Analysis on Survey and SOil Investigation Problem in Power Engineering Consultant

    OpenAIRE

    Setyaman, Amy Maulany; Sunitiyoso, Yos

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to gather and organize information for decision making against the problems arising in Power Engineering Consultant's survey and soil investigation product due to new policy in production cost efficiency that is implemented in 2012. The study conducted using Kepner and Tragoe's analytical process that consisted of four stages analytical process such as situation analysis, problem analysis, decision making analysis and potential problem analysis. As for the decision making analy...

  17. Recent developemts in multiple criteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zionts

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Problems involving more than one criterion abound. To help in the solution of such problems, a field of management science and operations research known as multiple criteria decision making (MCDM has emerged to help solve such problems. In this paper we discuss some recent developments in this important field.

  18. Group Decision-Making for Hesitant Fuzzy Sets Based on Characteristic Objects Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahzad Faizi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There are many real-life problems that, because of the need to involve a wide domain of knowledge, are beyond a single expert. This is especially true for complex problems. Therefore, it is usually necessary to allocate more than one expert to a decision process. In such situations, we can observe an increasing importance of uncertainty. In this paper, the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM method called the Characteristic Objects Method (COMET is extended to solve problems for Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making (MCGDM in a hesitant fuzzy environment. It is a completely new idea for solving problems of group decision-making under uncertainty. In this approach, we use L-R-type Generalized Fuzzy Numbers (GFNs to get the degree of hesitancy for an alternative under a certain criterion. Therefore, the classical COMET method was adapted to work with GFNs in group decision-making problems. The proposed extension is presented in detail, along with the necessary background information. Finally, an illustrative numerical example is provided to elaborate the proposed method with respect to the support of a decision process. The presented extension of the COMET method, as opposed to others’ group decision-making methods, is completely free of the rank reversal phenomenon, which is identified as one of the most important MCDM challenges.

  19. Are patient decision aids the best way to improve clinical decision making? Report of the IPDAS Symposium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Nelson, Wendy L; Pignone, Michael; Elwyn, Glyn; Rovner, David R; O'Connor, Annette M; Coulter, Angela; Correa-de-Araujo, Rosaly

    2007-01-01

    This article reports on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Symposium held in 2006 at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The symposium featured a debate regarding the proposition that "decision aids are the best way to improve clinical decision making.'' The formal debate addressed the theoretical problem of the appropriate gold standard for an improved decision, efficacy of decision aids, and prospects for implementation. Audience comments and questions focused on both theory and practice: the often unacknowledged roots of decision aids in expected utility theory and the practical problems of limited patient decision aid implementation in health care. The participants' vote on the proposition was approximately half for and half against.

  20. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Dematel) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) for Safety Management System Evaluation Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolita, Lisa; Surarso, Bayu; Gernowo, Rahmat

    2018-02-01

    In order to improve airport safety management system (SMS) performance, an evaluation system is required to improve on current shortcomings and maximize safety. This study suggests the integration of the DEMATEL and ANP methods in decision making processes by analyzing causal relations between the relevant criteria and taking effective analysis-based decision. The DEMATEL method builds on the ANP method in identifying the interdependencies between criteria. The input data consists of questionnaire data obtained online and then stored in an online database. Furthermore, the questionnaire data is processed using DEMATEL and ANP methods to obtain the results of determining the relationship between criteria and criteria that need to be evaluated. The study cases on this evaluation system were Adi Sutjipto International Airport, Yogyakarta (JOG); Ahmad Yani International Airport, Semarang (SRG); and Adi Sumarmo International Airport, Surakarta (SOC). The integration grades SMS performance criterion weights in a descending order as follow: safety and destination policy, safety risk management, healthcare, and safety awareness. Sturges' formula classified the results into nine grades. JOG and SMG airports were in grade 8, while SOG airport was in grade 7.

  1. EMOTIONS AND REASONING IN MORAL DECISION MAKING

    OpenAIRE

    V. V. Nadurak

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of the research is the study of relationship between emotional and rational factors in moral decisions making. Methodology. The work is primarily based on the analysis and synthesis of the main empirical studies of the problem, each of which uses the methods of those sciences in which they were conducted (neurosciences). Originality. In general, the process of moral decision making cannot be described by a single simple model that would see only emotional or rational factor in foundat...

  2. Registered nurses' decision-making regarding documentation in patients' progress notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tower, Marion; Chaboyer, Wendy; Green, Quentine; Dyer, Kirsten; Wallis, Marianne

    2012-10-01

    To examine registered nurses' decision-making when documenting care in patients' progress notes. What constitutes effective nursing documentation is supported by available guidelines. However, ineffective documentation continues to be cited as a major cause of adverse events for patients. Decision-making in clinical practice is a complex process. To make an effective decision, the decision-maker must be situationally aware. The concept of situation awareness and its implications for making safe decisions has been examined extensively in air safety and more recently is being applied to health. The study was situated in a naturalistic paradigm. Purposive sampling was used to recruit 17 registered nurses who used think-aloud research methods when making decisions about documenting information in patients' progress notes. Follow-up interviews were conducted to validate interpretations. Data were analysed systematically for evidence of cues that demonstrated situation awareness as nurses made decisions about documentation. Three distinct decision-making scenarios were illuminated from the analysis: the newly admitted patient, the patient whose condition was as expected and the discharging patient. Nurses used mental models for decision-making in documenting in progress notes, and the cues nurses used to direct their assessment of patients' needs demonstrated situation awareness at different levels. Nurses demonstrate situation awareness at different levels in their decision-making processes. While situation awareness is important, it is also important to use an appropriate decision-making framework. Cognitive continuum theory is suggested as a decision-making model that could support situation awareness when nurses made decisions about documenting patient care. Because nurses are key decision-makers, it is imperative that effective decisions are made that translate into safe clinical care. Including situation awareness training, combined with employing cognitive

  3. A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

    2013-01-01

    Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential

  4. Applying decision-making techniques to Civil Engineering Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fam F. Abdel-malak

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM techniques are found to be useful tools in project managers’ hands to overcome decision-making (DM problems in Civil Engineering Projects (CEPs. The main contribution of this paper includes selecting and studying the popular MCDM techniques that uses different and wide ranges of data types in CEPs. A detailed study including advantages and pitfalls of using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS is introduced. Those two techniques are selected for the purpose of forming a package that covers most available data types in CEPs. The results indicated that AHP has a structure which simplifies complicated problems, while Fuzzy TOPSIS uses the advantages of linguistic variables to solve the issue of undocumented data and ill-defined problems. Furthermore, AHP is a simple technique that depends on pairwise comparisons of factors and natural attributes, beside it is preferable for widely spread hierarchies. On the other hand, Fuzzy TOPSIS needs more information but works well for the one-tier decision tree as well as it shows more flexibility to work in fuzzy environments. The two techniques have the facility to be integrated and combined in a new module to support most of the decisions required in CEPs. Keywords: Decision-making, AHP, Fuzzy TOPSIS, CBA, Civil Engineering Projects

  5. Emotion Regulation, Coping, and Decision Making: Three Linked Skills for Preventing Externalizing Problems in Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn L; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie J; Guerra, Nancy

    2017-03-01

    Research on executive control during the teenage years points to shortfalls in emotion regulation, coping, and decision making as three linked capabilities associated with youth's externalizing behavior problems. Evidence gleaned from a detailed review of the literature makes clear that improvement of all three capabilities is critical to help young people better navigate challenges and prevent or reduce externalizing and related problems. Moreover, interventions can successfully improve these three capabilities and have been found to produce behavioral improvements with real-world significance. Examples of how successful interventions remediate more than one of these capabilities are provided. Future directions in research and practice are also proposed to move the field toward the development of more comprehensive programs for adolescents to foster their integration. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  6. Multiattribute Decision Making Based on Entropy under Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingjun Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiattribute decision making (MADM is one of the central problems in artificial intelligence, specifically in management fields. In most cases, this problem arises from uncertainty both in the data derived from the decision maker and the actions performed in the environment. Fuzzy set and high-order fuzzy sets were proven to be effective approaches in solving decision-making problems with uncertainty. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the MADM problem with completely unknown attribute weights in the framework of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF set (IVIFS. We first propose a new definition of IVIF entropy and some calculation methods for IVIF entropy. Furthermore, we propose an entropy-based decision-making method to solve IVIF MADM problems with completely unknown attribute weights. Particular emphasis is put on assessing the attribute weights based on IVIF entropy. Instead of the traditional methods, which use divergence among attributes or the probabilistic discrimination of attributes to obtain attribute weights, we utilize the IVIF entropy to assess the attribute weights based on the credibility of the decision-making matrix for solving the problem. Finally, a supplier selection example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed MADM method.

  7. Irrational time allocation in decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Bastiaan; Krajbich, Ian; Miller, Kevin; Cheong, Jin Hyun; Botvinick, Matthew; Fehr, Ernst

    2016-01-13

    Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. Examining Decision-Making Regarding Environmental Information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner

    2001-10-01

    Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be

  9. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  10. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  11. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  12. Decision-making in Swiss home-like childbirth: A grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Yvonne; Frank, Franziska; Schläppy Muntwyler, Franziska; Fleming, Valerie; Pehlke-Milde, Jessica

    2017-12-01

    Decision-making in midwifery, including a claim for shared decision-making between midwives and women, is of major significance for the health of mother and child. Midwives have little information about how to share decision-making responsibilities with women, especially when complications arise during birth. To increase understanding of decision-making in complex home-like birth settings by exploring midwives' and women's perspectives and to develop a dynamic model integrating participatory processes for making shared decisions. The study, based on grounded theory methodology, analysed 20 interviews of midwives and 20 women who had experienced complications in home-like births. The central phenomenon that arose from the data was "defining/redefining decision as a joint commitment to healthy childbirth". The sub-indicators that make up this phenomenon were safety, responsibility, mutual and personal commitments. These sub-indicators were also identified to influence temporal conditions of decision-making and to apply different strategies for shared decision-making. Women adopted strategies such as delegating a decision, making the midwife's decision her own, challenging a decision or taking a decision driven by the dynamics of childbirth. Midwives employed strategies such as remaining indecisive, approving a woman's decision, making an informed decision or taking the necessary decision. To respond to recommendations for shared responsibility for care, midwives need to strengthen their shared decision-making skills. The visual model of decision-making in childbirth derived from the data provides a framework for transferring clinical reasoning into practice. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

  14. EMOTIONS AND REASONING IN MORAL DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is the study of relationship between emotional and rational factors in moral decisions making. Methodology. The work is primarily based on the analysis and synthesis of the main empirical studies of the problem, each of which uses the methods of those sciences in which they were conducted (neurosciences. Originality. In general, the process of moral decision making cannot be described by a single simple model that would see only emotional or rational factor in foundation of this process. Moral decision making is characterized by different types of interaction between emotions and rational considerations. The influence of emotional and rational factors on moral decision is nonlinear: moral decision, which person makes, isn’t proportional to those emotions that preceded it and isn't unambiguously determined by them, because rational reasoning and contextual factors can significantly change it. Similarly, the reasoning that precede the decision is not necessarily reflected in the decision, because it can be significantly corrected by those emotions that accompany it. Conclusions. The process of moral decision making involves complex, heterogeneous interaction between emotional and rational factors. There are three main types of such interaction: first, the reasoning serves to rationalize prior emotional response; second, there are cases when reasoning precedes emotional reactions and determines it; third, interaction between these factors is characterized by cyclic causality (emotion impacts reasoning, which in turn impacts emotions. The influence of emotions or rational reasoning on moral decision is nonlinear.

  15. Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multicriteria Group Decision Making Based on VIKOR and Choquet Integral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunqiao Tan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An effective decision making approach based on VIKOR and Choquet integral is developed to solve multicriteria group decision making problem with conflicting criteria and interdependent subjective preference of decision makers in a fuzzy environment where preferences of decision makers with respect to criteria are represented by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets. First, an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet integral operator is given. Some of its properties are investigated in detail. The extended VIKOR decision procedure based on the proposed operator is developed for solving the multicriteria group decision making problem where the interactive criteria weight is measured by Shapley value. An illustrative example is given for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed decision procedure for solving the multi-criteria group decision making problem in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment.

  16. An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...

  17. Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

    1992-01-01

    This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

  18. Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

    2016-01-01

    Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and

  19. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr eSinayev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  20. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  1. Hesitant Probabilistic Multiplicative Preference Relations in Group Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zia Bashir

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The preference of one alternative over another is a useful way to express the opinion of the decision-maker. In the process of group decision-making, preference relations are used in preference modeling of the alternatives under given criteria. The probability is an important tool to deal with uncertainty and, in many scenarios of decision-making problems, the probabilities of different events affect the decision-making process directly. In order to deal with this issue, the hesitant probabilistic multiplicative preference relation (HPMPR is defined in this paper. Furthermore, consistency of the HPMPR and consensus among decision makers are studied here. In this respect, many algorithms are developed to achieve consistency of HPMPRs, reasonable consensus between decision-makers and a final algorithm is proposed comprehending all other algorithms, presenting a complete decision support model for group decision-making. Lastly, we present a case study with complete illustration of the proposed model and discuss the effects of probabilities on decision-making validating the importance of the introduction of probability in hesitant multiplicative preference relations.

  2. Shared decision making and patient choice for growth hormone therapy: current perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George B

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Belinda George, Vageesh Ayyar Department of Endocrinology, St. John’s Medical College Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India Abstract: Growth hormone has now been available in medical practice for close to 50 years. Its use has provided dramatic results in patients with growth hormone deficiency and it is associated with an overall favorable safety profile. Over the years, the utility of growth hormone has expanded to include treatment for short stature associated with conditions other than growth hormone deficiency, and this situation warrants greater involvement of the child and parents in the shared decision-making process. Shared decision making is in good conformance to the principle of informed consent, and it also improves the compliance and adherence to therapy as the patient fully understands the benefit and safety of the treatment. In the pediatric-care setting, the decision-making interactions usually occur between the health care provider, patient, and parents. The process may range from an autonomous decision-making pattern, where the patient or parents are fully responsible for the decision taken, to the paternalistic decision-making pattern, where the health care provider assumes full responsibility for the decision taken. However, the ideal situation is one where a truly shared decision-making process happens, in which the doctor and patient/parents work together to choose an evidence-based option, in line with the patient’s preferences and wishes. The limited data available on shared decision making with regard to growth hormone replacement, however, is not very encouraging and suggests that the actual involvement of the parents as perceived by them is less than optimal. Introduction of a simple structured model for a shared decision-making process that can be easily incorporated into clinical practice and familiarization of health care providers with the same is essential to improve our shared decision-making practices

  3. Neuroeconomics: cross-currents in research on decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfey, Alan G; Loewenstein, George; McClure, Samuel M; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2006-03-01

    Despite substantial advances, the question of how we make decisions and judgments continues to pose important challenges for scientific research. Historically, different disciplines have approached this problem using different techniques and assumptions, with few unifying efforts made. However, the field of neuroeconomics has recently emerged as an inter-disciplinary effort to bridge this gap. Research in neuroscience and psychology has begun to investigate neural bases of decision predictability and value, central parameters in the economic theory of expected utility. Economics, in turn, is being increasingly influenced by a multiple-systems approach to decision-making, a perspective strongly rooted in psychology and neuroscience. The integration of these disparate theoretical approaches and methodologies offers exciting potential for the construction of more accurate models of decision-making.

  4. Counterfactual reasoning in surrogate decision making -- another look.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Mats; Broström, Linus

    2011-06-01

    Incompetent patients need to have someone else make decisions on their behalf. According to the Substituted Judgment Standard the surrogate decision maker ought to make the decision that the patient would have made, had he or she been competent. Objections have been raised against this traditional construal of the standard on the grounds that it involves flawed counterfactual reasoning, and amendments have been suggested within the framework of possible worlds semantics. The paper shows that while this approach may circumvent the alleged problem, the way it has so far been elaborated reflects insufficient understanding of the moral underpinnings of the idea of substituted judgment. Proper recognition of these moral underpinnings has potentially far-reaching implications for our normative assumptions about accuracy and objectivity in surrogate decision making.

  5. The impact of safety and quality of health care on Chinese nursing career decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Junhong; Rodgers, Sheila; Melia, Kath M

    2014-05-01

    The aim of the study was to understand why nurses leave nursing practice in China by exploring the process from recruitment to final exit. This report examines the impact of safety and quality of health care on nursing career decision-making from the leavers' perspective. The nursing shortage in China is more serious than in most developed countries, but the loss of nurses through voluntarily leaving nursing practice has not attracted much attention. This qualitative study draws on a grounded theory approach. In-depth interviews with 19 nurses who have left nursing practice and were theoretically sampled from one provincial capital city in Mainland China. 'Loss of confidence in the safety and quality of health care' became one of the main categories from all leavers' accounts of their decision to leave nursing practice. It emerged from three themes 'Perceiving risk in clinical practice', 'Recognising organisational barriers to safety' and 'Failing to meet expectations of patients'. The findings indicate that the essential work value of nursing to the leavers is the safety and quality of care for their patients. When nurses perceived that they could not fulfil this essential work value in their nursing practice, some of them could not accept the compromise to their value of nursing and left voluntarily to get away from the physical and mental stress. However, some nurses had to stay and accept the limitations on the safety and quality of health care. The study suggests that well-qualified nurses voluntarily leaving nursing practice is a danger signal for patients and hospitals, and has caused deterioration in nursing morale for both current and potential nursing workforces. It suggests that safety and quality of health care could be improved when individual nurses are empowered to exercise nursing autonomy with organisational and managerial support. The priority retention strategies need to remove organisational barriers to the safety and quality of health care

  6. Decision making in a human population living sustainably.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, John S; Burgman, Mark A; Marewski, Julian N; Fidler, Fiona; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-10-01

    The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Safety Lead Optimization and Candidate Identification: Integrating New Technologies into Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dambach, Donna M; Misner, Dinah; Brock, Mathew; Fullerton, Aaron; Proctor, William; Maher, Jonathan; Lee, Dong; Ford, Kevin; Diaz, Dolores

    2016-04-18

    Discovery toxicology focuses on the identification of the most promising drug candidates through the development and implementation of lead optimization strategies and hypothesis-driven investigation of issues that enable rational and informed decision-making. The major goals are to [a] identify and progress the drug candidate with the best overall drug safety profile for a therapeutic area, [b] remove the most toxic drugs from the portfolio prior to entry into humans to reduce clinical attrition due to toxicity, and [c] establish a well-characterized hazard and translational risk profile to enable clinical trial designs. This is accomplished through a framework that balances the multiple considerations to identify a drug candidate with the overall best drug characteristics and provides a cogent understanding of mechanisms of toxicity. The framework components include establishing a target candidate profile for each program that defines the qualities of a successful candidate based on the intended therapeutic area, including the risk tolerance for liabilities; evaluating potential liabilities that may result from engaging the therapeutic target (pharmacology-mediated or on-target) and that are chemical structure-mediated (off-target); and characterizing identified liabilities. Lead optimization and investigation relies upon the integrated use of a variety of technologies and models (in silico, in vitro, and in vivo) that have achieved a sufficient level of qualification or validation to provide confidence in their use. We describe the strategic applications of various nonclinical models (established and new) for a holistic and integrated risk assessment that is used for rational decision-making. While this review focuses on strategies for small molecules, the overall concepts, approaches, and technologies are generally applicable to biotherapeutics.

  8. Proposal for an integrated risk informed decision making process for German regulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Einarsson, Svante; Wielenberg, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decisions for German nuclear power plants (NPP) have traditionally been based on deterministic safety analyses. However, the IRRS-Mission of IAEA in 2008 proposed, among others, in 'Suggestion 25' to develop a national policy 'on the use of risk insights in the regulatory framework and decision making'. Consequently, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) launched a project with the goal of developing a proposal for a uniform federal approach on using risk information in decision making. To this end, the state of the application of probabilistic and risk informed methods has been investigated both on an international and a national level. On the international level, the concept of Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making (IRIDM) has been defined in INSAG-25. It is a structured process, in which all knowledge and requirements relevant to the issue in question are to be considered in a decision. Such knowledge and other requirements are e.g. deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses, regulatory requirements and other applicable findings (including cost-benefit analyses). The IRIDM concept according to INSAG-25 is the cornerstone of the proposal for a uniform federal German approach for IRIDM in the regulatory framework for nuclear installations in Germany. (orig.)

  9. Memory Effect on Adaptive Decision Making with a Chaotic Semiconductor Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takatomo Mihana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effect of a memory parameter on the performance of adaptive decision making using a tug-of-war method with the chaotic oscillatory dynamics of a semiconductor laser. We experimentally generate chaotic temporal waveforms of the semiconductor laser with optical feedback and apply them for adaptive decision making in solving a multiarmed bandit problem that aims at maximizing the total reward from slot machines whose hit probabilities are dynamically switched. We examine the dependence of making correct decisions on different values of the memory parameter. The degree of adaptivity is found to be enhanced with a smaller memory parameter, whereas the degree of convergence to the correct decision is higher for a larger memory parameter. The relations among the adaptivity, environmental changes, and the difficulties of the problem are also discussed considering the requirement of past decisions. This examination of ultrafast adaptive decision making highlights the importance of memorizing past events and paves the way for future photonic intelligence.

  10. A Multi-criteria neutrosophic group decision making metod based TOPSIS for supplier selection

    OpenAIRE

    Şahin, Rıdvan; Yiğider, Muhammed

    2014-01-01

    The process of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is of determining the best choice among all of the probable alternatives. The problem of supplier selection on which decision maker has usually vague and imprecise knowledge is a typical example of multi criteria group decision-making problem. The conventional crisp techniques has not much effective for solving MCDM problems because of imprecise or fuzziness nature of the linguistic assessments. To find the exact values for MCDM problems...

  11. A decision model to allocate protective safety barriers and mitigate domino effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssens, Jochen; Talarico, Luca; Reniers, Genserik; Sörensen, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model to support decision-makers about where to locate safety barriers and mitigate the consequences of an accident triggering domino effects. Based on the features of an industrial area that may be affected by domino accidents, and knowing the characteristics of the safety barriers that can be installed to stall the fire propagation between installations, the decision model can help practitioners in their decision-making. The model can be effectively used to decide how to allocate a limited budget in terms of safety barriers. The goal is to maximize the time-to-failure of a chemical installation ensuring a worst case scenario approach. The model is mathematically stated and a flexible and effective solution approach, based on metaheuristics, is developed and tested on an illustrative case study representing a tank storage area of a chemical company. We show that a myopic optimization approach, which does not take into account knock-on effects possibly triggered by an accident, can lead to a distribution of safety barriers that are not effective in mitigating the consequences of a domino accident. Moreover, the optimal allocation of safety barriers, when domino effects are considered, may depend on the so-called cardinality of the domino effects. - Highlights: • A model to allocate safety barriers and mitigate domino effects is proposed. • The goal is to maximize the escalation time of the worst case scenario. • The model provides useful recommendations for decision makers. • A fast metaheuristic approach is proposed to solve such a complex problem. • Numerical simulations on a realistic case study are shown

  12. Decision making and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Decision Making Training in the Mission Operations Directorate

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keefe, William S.

    2013-01-01

    At JSC, we train our new flight controllers on a set of team skills that we call Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM). SFRM is akin to Crew Resource Management for the airlines and trains flight controllers to work as an effective team to reduce errors and improve safety. We have developed this training over the years with the assistance of Ames Research Center, Wyle Labs and University of Central Florida. One of the skills we teach is decision making/ problem solving (DM/PS). We teach DM/PS first in several classroom sessions, reinforce it in several part task training environments, and finally practice it in full-mission, full-team simulations. What I am proposing to talk about is this training flow: its content and how we teach it.

  14. Optimization of warehouse location through fuzzy multi-criteria decision making methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Karmaker

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Strategic warehouse location-allocation problem is a multi-staged decision-making problem having both numerical and qualitative criteria. In order to survive in the global business scenario by improving supply chain performance, companies must examine the cross-functional drivers in the optimization of logistic systems. A meticulous observation makes evident that strategy warehouse location selection has become challenging as the number of alternatives and conflicting criteria increases. The issue becomes particularly problematic when the conventional concept has been applied in dealing with the imprecise nature of the linguistic assessment. The qualitative decisions for selection process are often complicated by the fact that often it is imprecise for the decision makers. Such problem must be overcome with defined efforts. Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making methods have been used in this research as aids in making location-allocation decisions. The anticipated methods in this research consist of two steps at its core. In the first step, the criteria of the existing problem are inspected and identified and then the weights of the sector and subsector are determined that have come to light by using Fuzzy AHP. In the second step, eligible alternatives are ranked by using TOPSIS and Fuzzy TOPSIS comparatively. A demonstration of the application of these methodologies in a real life problem is presented.

  15. A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.

    2011-05-01

    Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.

  16. Management of safety and quality and the relationship with employee decisions in country grain elevators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

    2012-07-01

    Human factors play an important role in the management of safety and quality in an agricultural work environment. Although employee actions and decisions have been identified as a key component of successful occupational safety programs and quality management programs, little attention has been given to the employees' role in these types of programs. This research explored two safety relationships that have theoretical connections but little previous research: the relationship between safety climate and quality climate, and the relationship of the safety and quality climates between the organizational level and the group level within a workplace. Survey data were collected at three commercial grain handling facilities from 177 employees. Employees also participated in safety and quality decision-making simulations. Significant positive predictions were noted for safety and quality climate. Decision-making predictions are also discussed. This research suggests that organizational safety is an important predictor of group safety. In addition, recognizing the larger role that supervisors play in group workplace behavior, more should be done to increase employee perceptions of group-level involvement in quality climate to promote more quality-oriented decision-making by employees.

  17. An Extended TOPSIS Method for the Multiple Attribute Decision Making Problems Based on Interval Neutrosophic Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingping Chi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The interval neutrosophic set (INS can be easier to express the incomplete, indeterminate and inconsistent information, and TOPSIS is one of the most commonly used and effective method for multiple attribute decision making, however, in general, it can only process the attribute values with crisp numbers. In this paper, we have extended TOPSIS to INS, and with respect to the multiple attribute decision making problems in which the attribute weights are unknown and the attribute values take the form of INSs, we proposed an expanded TOPSIS method. Firstly, the definition of INS and the operational laws are given, and distance between INSs is defined. Then, the attribute weights are determined based on the Maximizing deviation method and an extended TOPSIS method is developed to rank the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.

  18. 2D Decision-Making for Multi-Criteria Design Optimization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Engau, A; Wiecek, M. M

    2006-01-01

    .... To facilitate those analyses and enhance decision-making and design selection, we propose to decompose the original problem by considering only pairs of criteria at a time, thereby making tradeoff...

  19. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  20. Student decision making in large group discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kustusch, Mary Bridget; Ptak, Corey; Sayre, Eleanor C.; Franklin, Scott V.

    2015-04-01

    It is increasingly common in physics classes for students to work together to solve problems and perform laboratory experiments. When students work together, they need to negotiate the roles and decision making within the group. We examine how a large group of students negotiates authority as part of their two week summer College Readiness Program at Rochester Institute of Technology. The program is designed to develop metacognitive skills in first generation and Deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) STEM undergraduates through cooperative group work, laboratory experimentation, and explicit reflection exercises. On the first full day of the program, the students collaboratively developed a sign for the word ``metacognition'' for which there is not a sign in American Sign Language. This presentation will focus on three aspects of the ensuing discussion: (1) how the instructor communicated expectations about decision making; (2) how the instructor promoted student-driven decision making rather than instructor-driven policy; and (3) one student's shifts in decision making behavior. We conclude by discussing implications of this research for activity-based physics instruction.

  1. Stepwise decision making for the long-term management of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Vari, A.

    2005-01-01

    The context of long-term radioactive waste management is being shaped by changes in modern society. Values such as health, environmental protection and safety are increasingly important, as are trends towards improved forms of participatory democracy that demand new forms of risk governance in dealing with hazardous activities. These changes in turn necessitate new forms of dialogue and decision-making processes that include a large number of stakeholders. The new dynamic of dialogue and decision-making process has been characterised as a shift from a more traditional 'decide, announce and defend' model, focused on technical assurance, to one of 'engage, interact and cooperate', for which both technical assurance and quality of the process are of comparable importance to a constructive outcome. Consequently, the scientific and engineering aspects of waste management safety are no longer of exclusive importance. Organisational ability to communicate and to adapt to the new context has emerged as a critical contributor to public confidence. In the new decision-making context it is clear that (a) any significant decisions regarding the long-term management of radioactive waste will be accompanied by a comprehensive public review with involvement of a diverse range of stakeholders; (b) the public, and especially the local public, are not willing to commit irreversibly to technical choices on which they have insufficient familiarity and understanding; and (c) any management options will take decades to be developed and implemented, which will involve stakeholders who have not yet been born. Thus, a 'decision' no longer means opting for, in one go and for all time, a complete package solution. Instead, a decision is one step in an overall, cautious process of examining and making choices that preserve the safety and well-being of the present generation and the coming ones while not needlessly depriving the latter of their right of choice. Consideration is thus

  2. Expectation Violation in Political Decision Making: A Psychological Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Öllinger

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Since the early Gestaltists there has been a strong interest in the question of how problem solvers get stuck in a mental impasse. A key idea is that the repeated activation of a successful strategy from the past results in a mental set (‘Einstellung’ which determines and constrains the option space to solve a problem. We propose that this phenomenon, which mostly was tested by fairly restricted experiments in the lab, could also be applied to more complex problem constellations and naturalistic decision making. We aim at scrutinizing and reconstructing how a mental set determines the misinterpretation of facts in the field of political decision making and leads in consequence to wrong expectations and an ill-defined problem representation. We will exemplify this psychological mechanism considering a historical example, namely the unexpected stabilization of the Franco regime at the end of World War II and its survival thereafter. A specific focus will be drawn to the significant observation that erroneous expectations were taken as the basis for decisions. This is congruent with the notion that in case of discrepancy between preconceived notions and new information, the former prevails over the new findings. Based on these findings, we suggest a theoretical model for expectation violation in political decision making and develop novel approaches for cognitive empirical research on the mechanisms of expectation violation and its maintenance in political decision making processes.

  3. Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

  4. Procurement in the Nuclear Industry, Quality, Safety and Decision Making; Upphandling inom kaernkraftsindustrin, kvalitet, saekerhet och beslutsfattande

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jakobsson, Marianne; Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka (PSA Psykologi och beslutsfattande, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-03-15

    The major purpose of the present study is partly to map and partly to make an analysis of the decision processes in the procurement routines in the nuclear industry in order to provide a basis for: 1. further development of safety inspections about procurements for Swedish Radiation Safety Authority 2. improvements of safety management in connection with procurement within a nuclear-power plant, 3 improvements of procurement routines in general in a nuclear power plant. The procurement processes at a nuclear power plant were analyzed from a decision theoretic perspective. Key staff at the plant was interviewed and written instructions as well as digitalized processes were used in the analysis. The results illustrate the most important moments during the procurement process with descriptions from interviews and documents. The staff at the nuclear power plant used a multi-attribute utility decision theory MAUT-inspired model in evaluation of alternatives and both compensatory (in which negative aspects can be compensated by positive aspects) and non-compensatory (in which certain 'pass' levels of attributes have to be exceeded for a choice) decision rules were used in the procurement process. Not surprising, nuclear safety was evaluated in a non-compensatory manner following regulatory criteria while costs were evaluated in trade-off compensatory rules, which means that a weakness in one consideration might be compensated by strength in another consideration. Thus, nuclear safety above the regulator's and law requirements are not integrated in a compensatory manner when procurement alternatives are evaluated. The nuclear plant assessed an organization's safety culture at an early stage of the purchasing process. A successful and a less successful procurement case were reported with the lessons learned from them. We find that the existing written instructions for purchase were well elaborated and adequate. There is a lack of personal resources when

  5. Distributed and organized decision making under resource boundedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawaragi, Tetsuo

    1994-01-01

    The coming bottleneck to be overcome in the era of the distributed and open-architectured environment will be the establishment of the rational design and coordination of the total system where multiple decision makers, problem solvers and automated machinery components coexist interacting with each other. In such an environment, they are not achieving some absolute standard of performance with unlimited amounts of resources nor with simple algorithms, but is doing as well as possible given what resources one has. In this article, we focus on the potentials of decision theory as a tool for tackling with the limited rationality under resource boundedness. First, the bottlenecks for establishing the organized and distributed decision making are summarized, and the importance of the formalization of decision activities of intelligent agents is stressed to establish an efficient and effective cooperation by distributed and organized decision making and/or problem solving. Some of the practical systems developed based on such a principle are reviewed briefly with respect to the real-time man-machine collaboration and the cooperative computational framework for the intelligent mobile robots. (author)

  6. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. © 2016 The Authors.

  7. The effect of problem solving and decision making skills on tendency to depression and anxiety in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abazarian, Elaheh; Baboli, M Teimourzadeh; Abazarian, Elham; Ghashghaei, F Esteki

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is the most prevalent disease that has involved 177 million people all over the world and, due to this, these patients suffer from depression and anxiety and they should use special methods for controlling the same. The aim of this research is the study of the effect of problem solving and decision making skill on the rate of the tendency to depression and anxiety. This research is a quasi-experimental (case-control) study. Statistically, the population of the present study was all diabetic patients of Qaemshahr who were controlled by physicians in 2011-2012. Thirty files were selected randomly from them and divided into two 15 patients' groups (control and subject group) randomly. The measurement tools were Back depression inventory (21 items) and Zank anxiety questionnaire that were distributed among two groups. Then, the subject group participated in eight sessions of teaching problem solving and decision making courses separately, and the second group (control group) did not receive any instruction. Finally, both groups had passed post-test and the data obtained from the questionnaires were studied by variance analysis statistical methods. The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients' depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety.

  8. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  9. On a Consensus Measure in a Group Multi-Criteria Decision Making Problem.

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Fedrizzi

    2010-01-01

    A method for consensus measuring in a group decision problem is presented for the multiple criteria case. The decision process is supposed to be carried out according to Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process, and hence using pairwise comparison among the alternatives. Using a suitable distance between the experts' judgements, a scale transformation is proposed which allows a fuzzy interpretation of the problem and the definition of a consensus measure by means of fuzzy tools as linguistic quanti...

  10. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    OpenAIRE

    SM Turpin; MA Marais

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

  11. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  12. The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Enver

    2008-01-01

    The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

  13. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroğlu Başak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

  14. The Different Moral Bases of Patient and Surrogate Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brudney, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    My topic is a problem with our practice of surrogate decision-making in health care, namely, the problem of the surrogate who is not doing her job-the surrogate who cannot be reached or the surrogate who seems to refuse to understand or to be unable to understand the clinical situation. The analysis raises a question about the surrogate who simply disagrees with the medical team. One might think that such a surrogate is doing her job-the team just doesn't like how she is doing it. My analysis raises the question of whether (or perhaps when) she should be overridden. In approaching this problem, I focus not on the range of difficulties in practice but on the underlying moral conceptual issue. My concern will be to show that the moral values that underpin patient decision-making are fundamentally different from those that underpin surrogate decision-making. Identifying the distinctions will set parameters for any successful solution to the "Who should decide?" A patient has a specific kind of moral right to make her own medical decisions. A surrogate has no analogous moral right to decide for someone else. We want the surrogate to make the decision because we believe that she has a relevant epistemological advantage over anyone else on the scene. If and when she has no such advantage or if she refuses or is unable to use it, then there might not be sufficient reason to let her be the decision-maker. © 2018 The Hastings Center.

  15. Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Mary

    2010-11-01

    Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Use of decision analytic methods in nuclear safety. An international survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1996-12-01

    This report reviews applications of formal decision analysis methods in resolving nuclear safety related issues. The review is based on selected published reports and a questionnaire sent to the members of the Principal Working Group 5 on risk analysis (PWG5) of OECD/NEA/CSNI. In the report, decision analysis methodology is shortly described. The applications discussed in this review are related to probabilistic safety goals of safety criteria, operational safety management, nuclear waste management and emergency management. The experiences from the application decision analysis methodology have been mainly positive. The advantages provided by the decision analytical thinking are the structured view over the problem under consideration and the explicit statements on uncertainties, values and preferences. The decision analysis methodology is rather mature to be applied in solution of nuclear safety issues. Although the applications have been mainly research oriented, it can be expected that the practical use of the methodology shall be more common in future. (orig.) (27 refs.)

  17. Use of decision analytic methods in nuclear safety. An international survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-12-01

    This report reviews applications of formal decision analysis methods in resolving nuclear safety related issues. The review is based on selected published reports and a questionnaire sent to the members of the Principal Working Group 5 on risk analysis (PWG5) of OECD/NEA/CSNI. In the report, decision analysis methodology is shortly described. The applications discussed in this review are related to probabilistic safety goals of safety criteria, operational safety management, nuclear waste management and emergency management. The experiences from the application decision analysis methodology have been mainly positive. The advantages provided by the decision analytical thinking are the structured view over the problem under consideration and the explicit statements on uncertainties, values and preferences. The decision analysis methodology is rather mature to be applied in solution of nuclear safety issues. Although the applications have been mainly research oriented, it can be expected that the practical use of the methodology shall be more common in future. (orig.) (27 refs.).

  18. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  19. [Interoception and decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Hideki

    2015-02-01

    We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

  20. Communicative processes and decision-making in relation to prostate cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løwe Netsey-Afedo, Mette Margrethe; Birkelund, Regner

    BACKGROUND: There are many benefits of involving patients in decision-making, including increased patient safety and improved health. Many patients with prostate cancer wish to be involved when making decisions in the course of their treatment. However, studies show that Patient Involvement and SDM...... of treatment, it is essential to involve patients' preferences, needs and desires when making decisions during the course of their disease. Furthermore, it is important that patients are adequately informed about treatment, side effects, and other specific issues important for the individual patient. The aim...... of this project is to examine the processes of communication between prostate cancer patients and health professionals related to decision-making in the course of the patient’s treatment. Organizational possibilities and constraints related to the involvement will also be examined. METHODS: Data will be collected...

  1. Decision making on the Breeder reactor in Britain and the United States: problems and solutions in the plutonium economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rydell, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    One objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis that is useful for investigating the conditions shaping the respective roles of science and politics in decision making on technology policy. The analytical framework used focuses upon the interactive R and D process and specifies the factors affecting change in and of that process. The distinguishing feature of this new analytical framework is its utility for investigating how participants in and R and D process go about defining and solving a growing variety of problems that they encounter as the costs, impacts, and stakes of technological change become more readily apparent. The framework is then applied to a particularly complex and politically controversial technology, the nuclear breeder reactor. Britain and the United States, the original pioneers of technology utilizing plutonium to produce electricity, were singled out in order to test the utility of the analytical framework for the comparative study of the R and D decision-making process. Although the study does not purport to have exhausted all possible interpretations of this complex subject, the results of the study suggest that the interactive R and D process represents an improvement over conventional modes of conceptualizing how R and D policies are formulated and changed. Efforts to resolve major national and international problems relating to science and technology will ultimately succeed only to the extent that these efforts are grounded in a deeper understanding of the conditions affecting how these problems are defined and approached in actual decision-making environments

  2. Multiple Attribute Decision Making Based on Cross-Evaluation with Uncertain Decision Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Ding

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple attribute decision making (MADM problem is one of the most common and popular research fields in the theory of decision science. A variety of methods have been proposed to deal with such problems. Nevertheless, many of them assumed that attribute weights are determined by different types of additional preference information which will result in subjective decision making. In order to solve such problems, in this paper, we propose a novel MADM approach based on cross-evaluation with uncertain parameters. Specifically, the proposed approach assumes that all attribute weights are uncertain. It can overcome the drawback in prior research that the alternatives’ ranking may be determined by a single attribute with an overestimated weight. In addition, the proposed method can also balance the mean and deviation of each alternative’s cross-evaluation score to guarantee the stability of evaluation. Then, this method is extended to a more generalized situation where the attribute values are also uncertain. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the proposed method by revisiting two reported studies and by a case study on the selection of community service companies in the city of Hefei in China.

  3. An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2000-01-01

    The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

  4. Decision support systems and expert systems for risk and safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baybutt, P.

    1986-01-01

    During the last 1-2 years, rapid developments have occurred in the development of decision support systems and expert systems to aid in decision making related to risk and safety of industrial plants. These activities are most noteworthy in the nuclear industry where numerous systems are under development with implementation often being made on personal computers. An overview of some of these developments is provided, and an example of one recently developed decision support system is given. This example deals with CADET, a system developed to aid the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in making decisions related to the topical issue of source terms resulting from degraded core accidents in light water reactors. The paper concludes with some comments on the likely directions of future developments in decision support systems and expert systems to aid in the management of risk and safety in industrial plants. (author)

  5. Decision Making for Democratic Leadership in a Guided Internship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinker, JoAnn Franklin; Hoover, J. Duane; Valle, Fernando; Hardin, Fred

    2014-01-01

    Experience in problem-based learning, authentic experiences, on-the-job decision making, and critical reflection on decisions made formed the conceptual framework of an internship to develop democratic leadership as a professional ethic in interns. Interns in an on-the-job guided internship examined decisions over a 13-week period as they…

  6. The effect of problem solving and decision making skills on tendency to depression and anxiety in patients with type 2 diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaheh Abazarian

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients′ depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety.

  7. Organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

  8. Dispositional optimism, self-framing and medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xu; Huang, Chunlei; Li, Xuesong; Zhao, Xin; Peng, Jiaxi

    2015-03-01

    Self-framing is an important but underinvestigated area in risk communication and behavioural decision-making, especially in medical settings. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship among dispositional optimism, self-frame and decision-making. Participants (N = 500) responded to the Life Orientation Test-Revised and self-framing test of medical decision-making problem. The participants whose scores were higher than the middle value were regarded as highly optimistic individuals. The rest were regarded as low optimistic individuals. The results showed that compared to the high dispositional optimism group, participants from the low dispositional optimism group showed a greater tendency to use negative vocabulary to construct their self-frame, and tended to choose the radiation therapy with high treatment survival rate, but low 5-year survival rate. Based on the current findings, it can be concluded that self-framing effect still exists in medical situation and individual differences in dispositional optimism can influence the processing of information in a framed decision task, as well as risky decision-making. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

  9. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  10. Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shu-Jen

    1992-01-01

    This monograph is intended for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course as well as for researchers, who want a compilation of developments in this rapidly growing field of operations research. This is a sequel to our previous works: "Multiple Objective Decision Making--Methods and Applications: A state-of-the-Art Survey" (No.164 of the Lecture Notes); "Multiple Attribute Decision Making--Methods and Applications: A State-of-the-Art Survey" (No.186 of the Lecture Notes); and "Group Decision Making under Multiple Criteria--Methods and Applications" (No.281 of the Lecture Notes). In this monograph, the literature on methods of fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) has been reviewed thoroughly and critically, and classified systematically. This study provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, their characteristics, and applicability to the analysis of fuzzy MADM problems. The basic concepts and algorithms from the classical MADM methods have been used in the development of the f...

  11. Risk informed decision making - a pre-study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2004-04-01

    Examples of risk-informed decisions are establishing maintenance programmes, optimising inspection policies and justifying plant modifications, and revising technical specifications. Applications in daily situations can be such as accepting or rejecting exemptions from technical specifications. The aim of this pre-study was to identify the status of risk-informed decision making at Swedish and Finnish nuclear power plants and nuclear safety authorities. Responses to a questionnaire were obtained either by interviews or by e-mail from two Swedish and two Finnish NPPs, SKI and STUK. The development of a risk-informed decision procedure based on decision analytic ideas is worth recommending. A clear documentation format is a part of such procedure. In order to serve as a basis for final decision, the documentation should include clearly defined decision criteria, qualification of PSA model for the issue under analysis, description of most important uncertainties and assumptions. (au)

  12. Maternal psychological distress and child decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, Eirini; Ioakeimidi, Sofia; Midouhas, Emily; Ploubidis, George B

    2017-08-15

    There is much research to suggest that maternal psychological distress is associated with many adverse outcomes in children. This study examined, for the first time, if it is related to children's affective decision-making. Using data from 12,080 families of the Millennium Cohort Study, we modelled the effect of trajectories of maternal psychological distress in early-to-middle childhood (3-11 years) on child affective decision-making, measured with a gambling task at age 11. Latent class analysis showed four longitudinal types of maternal psychological distress (chronically high, consistently low, moderate-accelerating and moderate-decelerating). Maternal distress typology predicted decision-making but only in girls. Specifically, compared to girls growing up in families with never-distressed mothers, those exposed to chronically high maternal psychological distress showed more risk-taking, bet more and exhibited poorer risk-adjustment, even after correction for confounding. Most of these effects on girls' decision-making were not robust to additional controls for concurrent internalising and externalising problems, but chronically high maternal psychological distress was associated positively with risk-taking even after this adjustment. Importantly, this association was similar for those who had reached puberty and those who had not. Given the study design, causality cannot be inferred. Therefore, we cannot propose that treating chronic maternal psychological distress will reduce decision-making pathology in young females. Our study suggests that young daughters of chronically distressed mothers tend to be particularly reckless decision-makers. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

    2012-10-01

    This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

  15. TODIM Method for Single-Valued Neutrosophic Multiple Attribute Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Sheng Xu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the TODIM has been used to solve multiple attribute decision making (MADM problems. The single-valued neutrosophic sets (SVNSs are useful tools to depict the uncertainty of the MADM. In this paper, we will extend the TODIM method to the MADM with the single-valued neutrosophic numbers (SVNNs. Firstly, the definition, comparison, and distance of SVNNs are briefly presented, and the steps of the classical TODIM method for MADM problems are introduced. Then, the extended classical TODIM method is proposed to deal with MADM problems with the SVNNs, and its significant characteristic is that it can fully consider the decision makers’ bounded rationality which is a real action in decision making. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model to interval neutrosophic sets (INSs. Finally, a numerical example is proposed.

  16. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Turpin

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

  17. Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

  18. Adversarial Collaboration Decision-Making: An Overview of Social Quantum Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    collaborative decision - making (CDM) to solve problems is an aspect of human behavior least yielding to rational predictions. To reduce the complexity of CDM...increases. Implications for C2 decision - making are discussed. Overview of research Game theory was one of the first rational approaches to the study of...Psychologist, 36, 343-356. Lawless, W.F. (2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Proceedings, Emotional and

  19. Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

  20. Biometric and intelligent decision making support

    CERN Document Server

    Kaklauskas, Arturas

    2015-01-01

    This book presents different methods for analyzing the body language (movement, position, use of personal space, silences, pauses and tone, the eyes, pupil dilation or constriction, smiles, body temperature and the like) for better understanding people’s needs and actions, including biometric data gathering and reading. Different studies described in this book indicate that sufficiently much data, information and knowledge can be gained by utilizing biometric technologies. This is the first, wide-ranging book that is devoted completely to the area of intelligent decision support systems, biometrics technologies and their integrations. This book is designated for scholars, practitioners and doctoral and master’s degree students in various areas and those who are interested in the latest biometric and intelligent decision making support problems and means for their resolutions, biometric and intelligent decision making support systems and the theory and practice of their integration and the opportunities fo...

  1. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  2. DECISION-MAKING ALIGNED WITH RAPID-CYCLE EVALUATION IN HEALTH CARE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Shrank, William H; Ruhl, Michael; Maclure, Malcolm

    2015-01-01

    Availability of real-time electronic healthcare data provides new opportunities for rapid-cycle evaluation (RCE) of health technologies, including healthcare delivery and payment programs. We aim to align decision-making processes with stages of RCE to optimize the usefulness and impact of rapid results. Rational decisions about program adoption depend on program effect size in relation to externalities, including implementation cost, sustainability, and likelihood of broad adoption. Drawing on case studies and experience from drug safety monitoring, we examine how decision makers have used scientific evidence on complex interventions in the past. We clarify how RCE alters the nature of policy decisions; develop the RAPID framework for synchronizing decision-maker activities with stages of RCE; and provide guidelines on evidence thresholds for incremental decision-making. In contrast to traditional evaluations, RCE provides early evidence on effectiveness and facilitates a stepped approach to decision making in expectation of future regularly updated evidence. RCE allows for identification of trends in adjusted effect size. It supports adapting a program in midstream in response to interim findings, or adapting the evaluation strategy to identify true improvements earlier. The 5-step RAPID approach that utilizes the cumulating evidence of program effectiveness over time could increase policy-makers' confidence in expediting decisions. RCE enables a step-wise approach to HTA decision-making, based on gradually emerging evidence, reducing delays in decision-making processes after traditional one-time evaluations.

  3. Culinary Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  4. Metrics for Uncertainty in Organizational Decision-Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawless, W. F; Chaudron, Laurent; Abubucker, C. P

    2006-01-01

    ... intractable. To advance the mathematics of social interaction, we propose that only bi-sided or quantum computational agents will be capable of replicating social phenomena such as the dynamics of human agents, including the more difficult problem of organizational decision-making.

  5. Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

    2011-06-01

    Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

  6. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-01-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases

  7. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  8. A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Susan; Goebel, Kai Frank; Galvan, Jose Ramon

    2012-01-01

    Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

  9. Decision-making deficits in normal elderly persons associated with executive personality disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Christopher M; Barrash, Joseph; Koenigs, Anna L; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

    2013-11-01

    The problems that some community-dwelling elderly persons develop in real-world decision-making may have disastrous consequences for their health and financial well-being. Investigations across the adult life span have identified personality as an important individual differences variable that is related to decision-making ability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personality characteristics, as rated by an informant, and complex decision-making performance among elderly persons. It was hypothesized that deficits in decision-making would be associated with personality characteristics reflecting weak executive functioning (Lack of Planning, Poor Judgment, Lack of Persistence, Perseveration, Lack of Initiative, Impulsivity, and Indecisiveness). Fifty-eight elderly persons participated. Their health and cognitive status were deemed intact via comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The Iowa Scales of Personality, completed by an informant, was used to assess personality characteristics, and the Iowa Gambling Task, completed by the participant, was used to assess complex decision-making abilities. Longstanding disturbances in executive personality characteristics were found to be associated with poor decision-making, and these disturbances remained predictive of poor decision-making even after taking into consideration demographic, neuropsychological, and mood factors. Acquired personality disturbances did not add significantly to prediction after longstanding disturbances were taken into account. Disturbances in other dimensions of personality were not significantly associated with poor decision-making. Our study suggests that attentiveness to the personality correlates of difficulties with aspects of executive functioning over the adult years could enhance the ability to identify older individuals at risk for problems with real-world decision-making.

  10. Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Frenová

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

  11. The effects of emotion on pilot decision-making: A neuroergonomic approach to aviation safety

    OpenAIRE

    Causse, Mickaël; Dehais, Frédéric; Péran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Pastor, Josette

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Emotion or stress can jeopardize decision-making relevance and cognitive functioning. In this paper we examine plan continuation error (PCE), an erroneous behavior defined as a "failure to revise a flight plan despite emerging evidence that suggests it is no longer safe" (Orasanu, Ames, Martin, & Davison, 2001). Our hypothesis is that negative emotional consequences attached to the go-around decision provoke a temporary impairment of the decision-making process and fav...

  12. Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maes, Marc A.; Faber, Michael H.

    2006-01-01

    A rational decision-making process does not exclude the possibility of decision makers expressing different preferences and disagreeing regarding the effects of consequences and optimal course of actions. This point of view is explored in depth in this paper. A framework is developed that includes several decision makers (instead of just one) and allows for the variability of preferences among these decision makers. The information provided by the varying opinions of decision makers can be used to optimize our own decision-making. To achieve this, likelihood functions are developed for stated preferences among both discrete and continuous alternatives, and stated preference rankings of alternatives. Two applications are pursued: the optimization of the lifecycle utility of a structural system subject to consequences of failure proportional to the intensity of hazards exceeding a variable threshold, and to follow-up consequences. Also, the problem of tight decisions or close calls is investigated in order to explore the efficiency of a Bayesian approach using stated preferences and stated rankings

  13. Shared decision-making as an existential journey: Aiming for restored autonomous capacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gulbrandsen, P.; Clayman, M.L.; Beach, M.C.; Han, P.K.; Boss, E.F.; Ofstad, E.H.; Elwyn, G.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We describe the different ways in which illness represents an existential problem, and its implications for shared decision-making. METHODS: We explore core concepts of shared decision-making in medical encounters (uncertainty, vulnerability, dependency, autonomy, power, trust,

  14. The attitude-behavior discrepancy in medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Fei; Li, Dongdong; Cao, Rong; Zeng, Juli; Guan, Hao

    2014-12-01

    In medical practice, the dissatisfaction of patients about medical decisions made by doctors is often regarded as the fuse of doctor-patient conflict. However, a few studies have looked at why there are such dissatisfactions. This experimental study aimed to explore the discrepancy between attitude and behavior within medical situations and its interaction with framing description. A total of 450 clinical undergraduates were randomly assigned to six groups and investigated using the classic medical decision making problem, which was described either in a positive or a negative frame (2) × decision making behavior\\attitude to risky plan\\attitude to conservative plan (3). A discrepancy between attitude and behavior did exist in medical situations. Regarding medical dilemmas, if the mortality rate was described, subjects had a significant tendency to choose a conservative plan (t = 3.55, P 0.05). However, regardless of the plan chosen by the doctor, the subjects had a significant opposing attitude (P Framing description had a significant impact on both decision making behavior and attitude (t behavior = -3.24, P framing of a description has an impact on medical decision-making.

  15. Tackling Complex Emergency Response Solutions Evaluation Problems in Sustainable Development by Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approaches with Considering Decision Hesitancy and Prioritization among Assessing Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Wen Qi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to be prepared against potential balance-breaking risks affecting economic development, more and more countries have recognized emergency response solutions evaluation (ERSE as an indispensable activity in their governance of sustainable development. Traditional multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM approaches to ERSE have been facing simultaneous challenging characteristics of decision hesitancy and prioritization relations among assessing criteria, due to the complexity in practical ERSE problems. Therefore, aiming at the special type of ERSE problems that hold the two characteristics, we investigate effective MCGDM approaches by hiring interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy set (IVDHFS to comprehensively depict decision hesitancy. To exploit decision information embedded in prioritization relations among criteria, we firstly define an fuzzy entropy measure for IVDHFS so that its derivative decision models can avoid potential information distortion in models based on classic IVDHFS distance measures with subjective supplementing mechanism; further, based on defined entropy measure, we develop two fundamental prioritized operators for IVDHFS by extending Yager’s prioritized operators. Furthermore, on the strength of above methods, we construct two hesitant fuzzy MCGDM approaches to tackle complex scenarios with or without known weights for decision makers, respectively. Finally, case studies have been conducted to show effectiveness and practicality of our proposed approaches.

  16. Tackling Complex Emergency Response Solutions Evaluation Problems in Sustainable Development by Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approaches with Considering Decision Hesitancy and Prioritization among Assessing Criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Xiao-Wen; Zhang, Jun-Ling; Zhao, Shu-Ping; Liang, Chang-Yong

    2017-10-02

    In order to be prepared against potential balance-breaking risks affecting economic development, more and more countries have recognized emergency response solutions evaluation (ERSE) as an indispensable activity in their governance of sustainable development. Traditional multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) approaches to ERSE have been facing simultaneous challenging characteristics of decision hesitancy and prioritization relations among assessing criteria, due to the complexity in practical ERSE problems. Therefore, aiming at the special type of ERSE problems that hold the two characteristics, we investigate effective MCGDM approaches by hiring interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy set (IVDHFS) to comprehensively depict decision hesitancy. To exploit decision information embedded in prioritization relations among criteria, we firstly define an fuzzy entropy measure for IVDHFS so that its derivative decision models can avoid potential information distortion in models based on classic IVDHFS distance measures with subjective supplementing mechanism; further, based on defined entropy measure, we develop two fundamental prioritized operators for IVDHFS by extending Yager's prioritized operators. Furthermore, on the strength of above methods, we construct two hesitant fuzzy MCGDM approaches to tackle complex scenarios with or without known weights for decision makers, respectively. Finally, case studies have been conducted to show effectiveness and practicality of our proposed approaches.

  17. Ergonomics and risk management in high risk organizations: nuclear power plant operator decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de

    2003-08-01

    Nuclear power plants are high hazard environments where emergency situations can have devastating effects. The operator crew has the ultimate responsibility to control the energy production process with safety. The outcome of a crisis is consequently dependent on the crew's judgement, decision making and situation awareness. In such way we should know how operators make their decisions in order to develop safety strategies. The aim of this thesis is to examine the cognitive processes through which operators make decisions when dealing with micro incidents during their actual work, and to determine whether they use a naturalistic or normative decision making strategy. That is, do they try to recognize the micro incident as familiar and base decisions on condition-action rules (naturalistic), or do they need to concurrently compare and contrast options before selecting the best possible (normative). The method employed for data collection was the Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) and Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA). The main findings of this thesis were that decision making is primarily based on naturalistic strategies, such as condition-action rules and recognition. In new situations rules are created ad hoc. These rules appear derived from experience and training rather than from Standard Operating Procedures and contrast normative competence standards used by nuclear industry. (author)

  18. The application of outsourcing decision-making methods in a logistics context in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Naomi Bloem; Wilna L. Bean

    2015-01-01

    Background: Companies have often relinquished the control of important business functions to outside suppliers for the sake of short-term savings and because of the lack of use of proper decision-making methods within the business. Objectives: This article identified three methods of decision-making and applied it to a logistics outsourcing problem. The logistics outsourcing problem consisted of a make-or-buy decision as well as a supplier selection process. The purpose of the study was t...

  19. Bayesian networks for clinical decision support: A rational approach to dynamic decision-making under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerven, M.A.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation deals with decision support in the context of clinical oncology. (Dynamic) Bayesian networks are used as a framework for (dynamic) decision-making under uncertainty and applied to a variety of diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment problems in medicine. It is shown that the proposed

  20. The Relationship of Decision-Making Styles and Attributional Styles in Addicted and Non-addicted Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaghaghy, Farhad; Saffarinia, Majid; Iranpoor, Mohadeseh; Soltanynejad, Ali

    2011-01-01

    One of social problems which has affected our society and resulted in problems for different groups of people is drug abuse. This issue indicates a serious psychological, physical and social problem in community. Social skills have positive and successful influences in prevention of substance abuse. This includes the ability to explain events correctly and then appropriate decision making. This study compares decision making styles and attributional styles between addicted and non addicted men to recognize their role in addiction. In this study, 200 addicted and non addicted men were randomly selected. Decision-making style and attributional style questionnaires were used. Data analysis was performed by independent Student's t and Pearson correlation tests. The study population included 81 addicted and 90 non-addicted men. Addicted and non addicted men were significantly different in rational decision-making style (P rational decision making and optimistic attribution style (r = -0.305, P rational decision making and learned helplessness (r = 0.309, P rational in decision making and addicts that developed learned helplessness were less rational and did not have optimistic attribution style. These issues show that addiction institutions and therapists have to pay attention to cognitive factors for addiction prevention.

  1. Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

  2. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  3. A Science-Technology-Society Paradigm and Cross River State Secondary School Students' Scientific Literacy: Problem Solving and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umoren, Grace

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Science-Technology-Society (STS) curriculum on students' scientific literacy, problem solving and decision making. Four hundred and eighty (480) Senior Secondary two science and non-science students were randomly selected from intact classes in six secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of…

  4. Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

  5. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  6. Stepwise decision making for the long-term management of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Vari, A.

    2003-01-01

    The context of long-term radioactive waste management is being shaped by changes in modern society. Values such as health, environmental protection and safety are increasingly important. This changes in turn necessitate new forms of dialogue and decision-making processes that include a large number of stakeholders. This paper deals with the new features of a stepwise decision-making approach, taking into account the public involvement and social learning processes, and showing the complexity of the new situation. (A.L.B.)

  7. Reactor safety training for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to reactor safety training for technical staff working at an operating station. The concept being developed is that, when the engineer becomes a registered professional engineer, they have sufficient reactor safety knowledge to perform independent technical work without compromising the safety of the plant. This goal would be achieved with a focused training program while working as an engineer-in-training (four years in NB). (author)

  8. The application of outsourcing decision-making methods in a logistics context in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi Bloem

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Companies have often relinquished the control of important business functions to outside suppliers for the sake of short-term savings and because of the lack of use of proper decision-making methods within the business. Objectives: This article identified three methods of decision-making and applied it to a logistics outsourcing problem. The logistics outsourcing problem consisted of a make-or-buy decision as well as a supplier selection process. The purpose of the study was to determine the most suitable method in the case of logistics outsourcing. Method: The decision-making methods were applied to a South African case study within the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG industry. The logistics functions considered in the case study included secondary distribution and warehousing of finished goods. Each method considered the same evaluation criteria and the results were analysed and compared. Results: Each method produced different results to the logistics outsourcing problem. The method developed by Platts, Probert and Canez (2000 suggested that the logistics functions be insourced. The decision tree method suggested outsourcing both functions, with a unit rate cost model. The results from the linear programming (LP method indicated that the secondary distribution function should be insourced and the warehousing function outsourced, with a fixed and variable cost model pending further analysis of the demand trends. Conclusion: The study provides empirical evidence that proven outsourcing decision-making methods, such as the method developed by Platts et al. (2000, the LP method and the decision tree method traditionally applied to a manufacturing outsourcing decision problem, can be adapted and applied to a logistics outsourcing decision problem of a South African FMCG company.

  9. Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Based on Neutrosophic Soft Rough Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Akram

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Soft sets (SSs, neutrosophic sets (NSs, and rough sets (RSs are different mathematical models for handling uncertainties, but they are mutually related. In this research paper, we introduce the notions of soft rough neutrosophic sets (SRNSs and neutrosophic soft rough sets (NSRSs as hybrid models for soft computing. We describe a mathematical approach to handle decision-making problems in view of NSRSs. We also present an efficient algorithm of our proposed hybrid model to solve decision-making problems.

  10. Business intelligence and financial decision-making: a theoretical approach

    OpenAIRE

    Mary Julieth Murillo Junco; Gustavo Cáceres Castellanos

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with a literature review about the origin, development and implementation of Business Intelligence focused directly to solving problems in the financial area of the different organizations. Wanted contextualize how it tools have been incorporated into the decision making processes of modern business. A feature of the way it makes decisions has to do with the rational use made of the information available, and it is in this field where information technology and communication ...

  11. Strategy and skills for moral decision-making in business

    OpenAIRE

    G.J. Rossouw

    1997-01-01

    Business Ethics is a truly interdisciplinary field of study. The specific issue of moral decision-making within the field of business ethics testifies to this. Recently some have made important contributions in this regard - contributions in which they emphasised that moral theory is not sufficient for moral decision-making. What is needed besides moral theory is problem-solving ability. In this article the same point is argued, but from a philosophical perspective. It is further indicated th...

  12. A different approach to quantifying fire risks when decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, Adrian

    1991-01-01

    This article outlines an alternative approach to fire safety design which involves decision making on the basis of risk considerations. The methodology is being developed in conjunction with the nuclear industry but is considered equally applicable to other industrial facilities. (author)

  13. Cognitive-emotional decision making (CEDM): a framework of patient medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Tara E; Swartzman, Leora C; Robinson, John W

    2011-05-01

    Assistance for patients faced with medical decisions has largely focussed on the clarification of information and personal values. Our aim is to draw on the decision research describing the role of emotion in combination with health behaviour models to provide a framework for conceptualizing patient decisions. A review of the psychological and medical decision making literature concerned with the role of emotion/affect in decision making and health behaviours. Emotion plays an influential role in decision making. Both current and anticipated emotions play a motivational role in choice. Amalgamating these findings with that of Leventhal's (1970) SRM provide a framework for thinking about the influence of emotion on a patient medical decision. Our framework suggests that a patient must cope with four sets of elements. The first two relate to the need to manage the cognitive and emotional aspects of the health threat. The second set relate to the management of the cognitive and emotional elements of the decision, itself. The framework provides a way for practitioners and researchers to frame thinking about a patient medical decision in order to assist the patient in clarifying decisional priorities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Stochastic Decision-Making Method Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.

  15. Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ule

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

  16. Development and evaluation of learning module on clinical decision-making in Prosthodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Saee; Lambade, Dipti; Chahande, Jayashree

    2015-01-01

    Best practice strategies for helping students learn the reasoning skills of problem solving and critical thinking (CT) remain a source of conjecture, particularly with regard to CT. The dental education literature is fundamentally devoid of research on the cognitive components of clinical decision-making. This study was aimed to develop and evaluate the impact of blended learning module on clinical decision-making skills of dental graduates for planning prosthodontics rehabilitation. An interactive teaching module consisting of didactic lectures on clinical decision-making and a computer-assisted case-based treatment planning software was developed Its impact on cognitive knowledge gain in clinical decision-making was evaluated using an assessment involving problem-based multiple choice questions and paper-based case scenarios. Mean test scores were: Pretest (17 ± 1), posttest 1 (21 ± 2) and posttest 2 (43 ± 3). Comparison of mean scores was done with one-way ANOVA test. There was overall significant difference in between mean scores at all the three points (P posttest 1 > pretest. Blended teaching methods employing didactic lectures on the clinical decision-making as well as computer assisted case-based learning can be used to improve quality of clinical decision-making in prosthodontic rehabilitation for dental graduates.

  17. SOLVING OPTIMAL ASSEMBLY LINE CONFIGURATION TASK BY MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ján ČABALA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with looking for the optimal configuration of automated assembly line model placed within Department of Cybernetics and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI. In order to solve this problem, Stateflow model of each configuration was created to simulate the behaviour of particular assembly line configuration. Outputs from these models were used as inputs into the multiobjective decision making process. Multi-objective decision-making methods were subsequently used to find the optimal configuration of assembly line. Paper describes the whole process of solving this task, from building the models to choosing the best configuration. Specifically, the problem was resolved using the experts’ evaluation method for evaluating the weights of every decision-making criterion, while the ELECTRE III, TOPSIS and AGREPREF methods were used for ordering the possible solutions from the most to the least suitable alternative. Obtained results were compared and final solution of this multi-objective decisionmaking problem is chosen.

  18. The Unbalanced Linguistic Aggregation Operator in Group Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many linguistic aggregation methods have been proposed and applied in the linguistic decision-making problems. In practice, experts need to assess a number of values in a side of reference domain higher than in the other one; that is, experts use unbalanced linguistic values to express their evaluation for problems. In this paper, we propose a new linguistic aggregation operator to deal with unbalanced linguistic values in group decision making, we adopt 2-tuple representation model of linguistic values and linguistic hierarchies to express unbalanced linguistic values, and moreover, we present the unbalanced linguistic ordered weighted geometric operator to aggregate unbalanced linguistic evaluation values; a comparison example is given to show the advantage of our method.

  19. Essays on microeconomics and statistical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto

    2006-01-01

    Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...

  20. Applying Fuzzy Decision Making Approach to IT Outsourcing Supplier Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Gülcin Büyüközkan; Mehmet Sakir Ersoy

    2009-01-01

    The decision of information technology (IT) outsourcing requires close attention to the evaluation of supplier selection process because the selection decision involves conflicting multiple criteria and is replete with complex decision making problems. Selecting the most appropriate suppliers is considered an important strategic decision that may impact the performance of outsourcing engagements. The objective of this paper is to aid decision makers to evaluate and assess possible IT outsourc...

  1. Mathematical models of decision making on space vehicle motion control at fuzzy conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arslanov, M.Z.; Ismail, E.E.; Oryspaev, D.O.

    2005-01-01

    the structure of decision making for control of spacecraft motion is considered. Mathematical models of decision making problems are investigated. New methods of criteria convolution are received. New convolution have properties of smoothness. (author)

  2. Planning and decision making for aerial robots

    CERN Document Server

    Bestaoui Sebbane, Yasmina

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent.   Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algori...

  3. Viewpoint: Decision-making in committees

    OpenAIRE

    Li Hao; Wing Suen

    2009-01-01

    This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...

  4. Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    2018-01-01

    systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

  5. Neutrosophic Parametrized Soft Set Theory and Its Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Said Broumi; Irfan Deli; Florentin Smarandache

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we present definition of neutrosophic parameterized (NP) soft set and its operations. Then we define NP-aggregation operator to form NP-soft decision making method which allows constructing more efficient decision processes. We also dive an example which shows that they can be successfully applied to problem that contain indeterminacy.

  6. Analysis and decision making method for radiation accident situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammet, H.; Hamard, J.

    1975-01-01

    Decisions on the application of countermeasures for accident situations must take into account the cost of these countermeasures and the feasibility of reducing the exposure. A contribution to the solution of this problem, rested on the application of the principle of choice rationalization and optimization of decision making method, is presented [fr

  7. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  8. Family decision-making during food buying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel

    Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...... in difficulties in distinguishing among healthy and unhealthy food. Both parents and children being active in the decision process may lead to conflicts due to gaps in preference such as between healthy and unhealthy food. Families solve these conflicts via open communication patterns and a use of various...

  9. Business intelligence and financial decision-making: a theoretical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Julieth Murillo Junco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a literature review about the origin, development and implementation of Business Intelligence focused directly to solving problems in the financial area of the different organizations. Wanted contextualize how it tools have been incorporated into the decision making processes of modern business. A feature of the way it makes decisions has to do with the rational use made of the information available, and it is in this field where information technology and communication play a role today

  10. Decision Making and Systems Thinking: Educational Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…

  11. Making nuclear power plant operational decisions using probabilistic safety assessment information and personal computers. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    PRISIM described in this case study makes a PSA useful to decision makers like plant managers, operational personnel or safety assessors because it provides a rapid access to specific information and the ability to generate updated PSA results that reflect the plant status at a particular time. From the capabilities of PRISIM one can conclude that the ability of a user friendly update of the system model in the PC or changes in the data files at the computer is not realized to data. Also the calculation of averaged probabilities instead of time dependent instantaneous probabilities is a sort of a restriction and will be changed in the future. 5 refs, 34 figs, 3 tabs

  12. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

  13. Decision making process: a comparison between the public and private sector

    OpenAIRE

    Igreja, Arthur Schuler da

    2014-01-01

    The problem of decision making, its mechanisms and consequences is the very core of management, it is virtually impossible to separate the act of manage from this knowledge area. As defined by Herbert Simon – "decision making" as though it were synonymous with "managing". A decision is a selection made by an individual regarding a choice of a conclusion about a situation. This represents a course of behavior pertaining to what must be done or what must not be done. A decision is the point at ...

  14. The amygdala and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel

    2011-03-01

    Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Articulating the differences between safety and resilience: the decision-making process of professional sea-fishing skippers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörel, Gaël; Amalberti, René; Chauvin, Christine

    2008-02-01

    As the world's most dangerous profession, sea fishing enables discussion of the concept of resilience and its articulation to the notion of safety in complex systems. In the small, emerging community working on this concept, the prevailing idea to improve safety is that resilience must be reinjected into the know-how of complex systems. Thirty-four male skippers, divided into two groups, took part in an interactive simulation of a fishing campaign. They had to make decisions in situations of trade-off between safety and production goals. From the time they left the harbor, the fishermen never gave up on fishing, even in extreme conditions, and regardless of whether or not the catch was good. Not being suicidal, however, they used multiple expert strategies to reduce risk without giving up on their fishing activity. Systems run by craftspeople are very resilient because they rely on a high level of adaptability, based on the actors' expertise, linked to an exposure to frequent and considerable risk. Each actor is responsible for his or her own safety. The final discussion bears on the question of knowing whether or not it is possible to design a safe system while preserving its craftsmanship and therefore its native resilience. The results of these studies suggest potential adverse effects of classic safety interventions in complex sociotechnical systems either in terms of professional reluctance to accept new recommendations or through the emergence of new sources of risk.

  16. Fuzzy multiple objective decision making methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Young-Jou

    1994-01-01

    In the last 25 years, the fuzzy set theory has been applied in many disciplines such as operations research, management science, control theory, artificial intelligence/expert system, etc. In this volume, methods and applications of crisp, fuzzy and possibilistic multiple objective decision making are first systematically and thoroughly reviewed and classified. This state-of-the-art survey provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, and their characteristics and applicability to analysis of fuzzy and possibilistic programming problems. To realize practical fuzzy modelling, it presents solutions for real-world problems including production/manufacturing, location, logistics, environment management, banking/finance, personnel, marketing, accounting, agriculture economics and data analysis. This book is a guided tour through the literature in the rapidly growing fields of operations research and decision making and includes the most up-to-date bibliographical listing of literature on the topi...

  17. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  18. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  19. Neuroeconomics: cross-currents in research on decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanfey, A.G.; Loewenstein, G.; McClure, S.M.; Cohen, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    Despite substantial advances, the question of how we make decisions and judgments continues to pose important challenges for scientific research. Historically, different disciplines have approached this problem using different techniques and assumptions, with few unifying efforts made. However, the

  20. Study on a monitoring strategy to support decision making for geological repository closure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyama, Yasuhiro; Tanabe, Hiromi; Eto, Jiro; Yoshimura, Kimitaka

    2010-01-01

    Japan currently plans to dispose of high-level radioactive wastes (vitrified HLWs) produced from the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel in deep geological formations, in order to isolate the radioactive wastes from the human environment for tens of thousands of years. Such a geological repository must be designed to ensure operational safety and post-closure safety. Then, following the closure of the geological repository, post-closure safety will be provided by an engineered barrier system (EBS) and a natural barrier system (NBS) without relying on monitoring or institutional control. However, from a technical standpoint, monitoring has been required during backfilling in current studies. Additionally, there has been strong social pressure to continue monitoring during all the phases including post-closure. On the basis of the current situations, a monitoring strategy for geological disposal must be studied to ensure the long term safety of geological disposal. Focusing on decision making for geological repository closure, the authors have created a basic logical structure for the decision making process with the principles for ensuring safety and have developed a monitoring strategy based on the logical structure. The monitoring strategy is founded on three key aspects: the role of monitoring, boundary conditions of monitoring at the time of decision making, and a methodology for monitoring planning. Then, the monitoring strategy becomes a starting point of monitoring planning during site characterization, construction, operation and staged closure, as well as post-closure with institutional control, and of social science studies. (author)

  1. Self-Esteem in Decision Making and Decision-Making Styles of Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temel, Veysel; Birol, Sefa Sahan; Nas, Kazim; Akpinar, Selahattin; Tekin, Murat

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was to examine the self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles of the teachers in various branches of Çat town of Erzurum Province, Turkey in terms of some variables in 2014-2015 year. A total of 153 teachers (84 females and 69 males) (age (? = 1.6536 ± 0.72837) from different departments participated in the…

  2. Applying of forecasting at decision making in power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sapundjiev, G.

    2007-01-01

    The problems concerning forecast and decision making are analyzed. The typical tasks arising in the forecasting process of the power systems with hierarchical structure formulated and brought to formal description

  3. Comparison of safety measures with a multicriteria decision aiding technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1985-01-01

    Attributes such as political, social and psychological factors have to be taken into account for the decision-making process. Multiattribute decision-aiding techniques are used to cope with this multidimensionality of the risk management process. A simple example will be given to illustrate how such method can be helpful for the selection of proper safety measures in a rational way. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Decision-Making Based on Emotional Images

    OpenAIRE

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  5. Decision making based on emotional images

    OpenAIRE

    Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Tomomi eFujimura; Tomomi eFujimura; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  6. Moral and Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

  7. A positionism epitomology applied to small group decision-making in radioactive waste management. Doctoral thesis prepared at SCK-CEN and defended in 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombaerts, G.

    2005-01-01

    The article refers to an abstract of a doctoral thesis. Assuring the safety of technological developments is becoming one of the most important tasks in society. For nuclear waste repositories, it is important to know what will remain valuable of current performance and safety assessments within a few hundred years. The core of the PhD concerns the meaning that can be attributed to safety assessments. This study develops a new philosophical theory to explain how small group decision-making on technoscientific problems takes place. It is applied to the specific problem of decision-making on radioactive waste disposal and its related risk assessment. The new philosophical theory is based on Latour's interactionism theory, which in its essence states that facts are only facts if they are accepted by the network. The theory adds that fact-building or decision-making happens in a certain context by interaction of different context elements. The word context has a very specific meaning. It refers to a problem solving situations in which individuals work out a problem framing and use attitudes, personalities, group cultures, and objects. Decisions or fact-building within the group will happen by interaction between these context elements that will get different hierarchical positions and lead to contextual dissonance reduction. This is called positionism. An international questionnaire has been carried out asking for estimations by technologists and scientists of the risks and uncertainties of a high level waste repository on the one hand and their personality, group culture and background characteristics on the other hand. Two important indicators occur. High neuroticism -a personality measure indicating the general tendency to experience affects such as fear, sadness, or distrust- correlates with high assessments of the waste repository risks. Scientists with high confidence in science give significant lower estimations of the repository risks. These results illustrate

  8. Impact of the decision-making environment on policy responses to road worker fatality in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankratz, Curt J

    2018-01-22

    Fatal accidents often lead to policy changes. However, the existing decision-making environment is critical to policy responses. This study compares the policy responses to similar events in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The key question explores the extent to which the policy decisions in each province differ despite the similarity of the events. Key documents were examined. Provincial court rulings, workplace health & safety incident investigation reports, court transcripts and police reports were used to compare resulting policy changes as well as the socio-political and economic decision-making context. Relevant clauses in resulting legislation were also compared to assess the specific changes that were made in each province. In each province, a young, female highway construction worker was killed. However, the provinces responded in very different ways. In Saskatchewan, the Premier called for recommendations to improve worker safety, initiating an in-depth governmental study and the development of a broad safety strategy. In Manitoba, political and social pressures shifted the decision-making environment and contributed to the rushed passing of a bill focused on traffic fine increases that resulted in record-breaking traffic fine revenue while failing to include broader safety measures. Different decision-making contexts can lead to vastly different policy outcomes even when responding to very similar events. Key differences included time constraints, access to information and the nature of the political process invoked.

  9. Children Involvement on Family Purchase Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Jostein, Revina Wintry

    2013-01-01

    Children take big involvement in family decision making process today. There are several factors that make this phenomenon happen, such as media influence. Currently, the development of information and communication technology is so fast, indirectly encourages all parties, including the children to be able to follow the changes. There are two main objectives that will be examined, related with all the stated problems at the previous section, which are to analyze which product category does ch...

  10. Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

    2015-05-01

    Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...

  12. Non-medical influences on medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinlay, J B; Potter, D A; Feldman, H A

    1996-03-01

    The influence of non-medical factors on physicians' decision-making has been documented in many observational studies, but rarely in an experimental setting capable of demonstrating cause and effect. We conducted a controlled factorial experiment to assess the influence of non-medical factors on the diagnostic and treatment decisions made by practitioners of internal medicine in two common medical situations. One hundred and ninety-two white male internists individually viewed professionally produced video scenarios in which the actor-patient, presenting with either chest pain or dyspnea, possessed various balanced combinations of sex, race, age, socioeconomic status, and health insurance coverage. Physician subjects were randomly drawn from lists of internists in private practice, hospital-based practice, and HMO's, at two levels of experience. The most frequent diagnoses for both chest pain and dyspnea were psychogenic origin and cardiac problems. Smoking cessation was the most frequent treatment recommendation for both conditions. Younger patients (all other factors being the same) were significantly more likely to receive the psychogenic diagnosis. Older patients were more likely to receive the cardiac diagnosis for chest pain, particularly if they were insured. HMO-based physicians were more likely to recommend a follow-up visit for chest pain. Several interactions of patient and physician factors were significant in addition to the main effects. The variability in decision-making evidenced by physicians in this experiment was not entirely accounted for by strictly rational Bayesian inference (the common prescriptive model for medical decision-making), in-as-much as non-medical factors significantly affected the decisions that they made. There is a need to supplement idealized medical schemata with considerations of social behavior in any comprehensive theory of medical decision-making.

  13. Conversion Timing of Seafarer’s Decision-making for Unmanned Ship Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruolan Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to construct an unmanned ship swarms monitoring model to improve autonomous decision-making efficiency and safety performance of unmanned ship navigation. A framework is proposed to determine the relationship between on-board decision-making and shore side monitoring, the process of ship data detection, tracking, analysis and loss, and the application of decision-making algorithm, to discuss the different risk responses of specific unmanned ship types under various latent hazard environments, particularly in terms of precise conversion timing in switching over to remote control and full manual monitoring, to ensure safe navigation when the capability of automatic risk response inadequate. This frame-work makes it easier to train data and the adjustment for machine learning based on Bayesian risk prediction. It can be concluded that the automation level can be increased and the workload of shore-based seafarers can be reduced easily.

  14. Deepening the quality of clinical reasoning and decision-making in rural hospital nursing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedgwick, M G; Grigg, L; Dersch, S

    2014-01-01

    Rural acute care nursing requires an extensive breadth and depth of knowledge as well as the ability to quickly reason through problems in order to make sound clinical decisions. This reasoning often occurs within an environment that has minimal medical or ancillary support. Registered nurses (RN) new to rural nursing, and employers, have raised concerns about patient safety while new nurses make the transition into rural practice. In addition, feeling unprepared for the rigors of rural hospital nursing practice is a central issue influencing RN recruitment and retention. Understanding how rural RNs reason is a key element for identifying professional development needs and may support recruitment and retention of skilled rural nurses. The purpose of this study was to explore how rural RNs reason through clinical problems as well as to assess the quality of such reasoning. This study used a non-traditional approach for data collection. Fifteen rural acute care nurses with varying years of experience working in southern Alberta, Canada, were observed while they provided care to patients of varying acuity within a simulated rural setting. Following the simulation, semi-structured interviews were conducted using a substantive approach to critical thinking. Findings revealed that the ability to engage in deep clinical reasoning varied considerably among participants despite being given the same information under the same circumstances. Furthermore, the number of years of experience did not seem to be directly linked to the ability to engage in sound clinical reasoning. Novice nurses, however, did rely heavily on others in their decision making in order to ensure they were making the right decision. Hence, their relationships with other staff members influenced their ability to engage in clinical reasoning and decision making. In situations where the patient's condition was deteriorating quickly, regardless of years of experience, all of the participants depended on

  15. Cognitive schema and naturalistic decision making in evidence-based practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falzer, Paul R

    2004-04-01

    A recent article in this journal proposed a naturalistic approach to decision making that overcomes problems intrinsic to classical decision theory. The approach emphasizes cognitive and multi-level processes, the development of expert reasoning, and the role of decision support in individual and organizational decision making. The current paper builds on this effort by suggesting a naturalistic, multi-level, theory that can facilitate the dissemination of evidence-based practices (EBPs). The paper presents "Image Theory," a theory that has been extensively investigated in other disciplines, but has yet to be utilized in medical decision research. It is suggested that its rich, empirically tested, distinctions among kinds of cognitive and organizational processes and types of decisions and tasks make Image Theory especially valuable in describing impediments to implementing EBPs. The paper discusses how naturalistic theory can assist clinicians, administrators, researchers, and policy makers in achieving a balance between evidence-based medicine and patient-centered practice.

  16. The Pashtun behavior economy an analysis of decision making in tribal society

    OpenAIRE

    Holton, Jeremy W.

    2011-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Little scholarship exists regarding the ways members of conflict societies think about the economic decisions they face, and what information they value as relevant to those decisions. The literature of the emerging field of behavior economics suggest that in uncertain environments, considerable weight may be given to identity and culture factors to make decisions that will affect personal safety, income prospects and self-fulfillment...

  17. Role of affect in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2013-01-01

    Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Preparing future fisheries professionals to make good decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.

    2017-01-01

    Future fisheries professionals will face decision-making challenges in an increasingly complex field of fisheries management. Though fisheries students are well trained in the use of the scientific method to understand the natural world, they are rarely exposed to structured decision making (SDM) as part of an undergraduate or graduate education. Specifically, SDM encourages users (e.g., students, managers) to think critically and communicate the problem and then identify specific, measurable objectives as they relate to the problem. Next, users must think critically and creatively about management alternatives that can be used to meet the objectives—there must be more than one alternative or there is no decision to be made. Lastly, the management alternatives are evaluated with regard to how likely they are to succeed in terms of multiple, possibly completing, objectives, such as how stakeholder groups value outcomes of management actions versus monetary cost. We believe that exposure to SDM and its elements is an important part of preparing future fisheries professional to meet the challenges they may face. These challenges include reduced budgets, the growth of potentially competing natural resource interest groups, and stakeholder desire to be involved in management decisions affecting public trust resources, just to name a few.

  19. [The relationship between career decision-making self efficacy and anxiety].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Chen; Cai, Yun; Liu, Jia; Shan, Dan; Zhou, Xia

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of the paper is to examine the relationship among Career Decision-Making Self Efficacy, existential anxiety and anxiety in the sample of college students during the professional choice. Data on The Revised Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy-Shot Form, Existential Anxiety Scale (EAS), SCL-90 and self-identity status were collected and analyzed on a sample of 500 college students. 201 rural students' career decision making self-efficacy scores were as follows: self-appraisal (12.58 ± 3.48), occupational information (12.07 ± 3.05), goal selection (12.48 ± 3.51), planning (12.17 ± 3.10), problem solving (9.75 ± 2.38), all scores were lower than urban students, the difference was statistically significant (P guilt anxiety (13.72 ± 2.38), alienation and loneliness anxiety (16.82 ± 2.51), all scores are higher than urban students, the difference was statistically significant (P decision making self-efficacy. There is a significant positive correlation between anxiety and existential anxiety. There exists a significant negative correlation among factors of student and career decision making self-efficacy and anxiety. Meaningless and emptiness anxiety on career decision making self-efficacy are significant predictors. There is negative correlation among existential anxiety, occupational information and anxiety during the professional choice.

  20. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ersdal, Gerhard; Aven, Terje

    2008-01-01

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle

  1. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ersdal, Gerhard [University of Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: gerhard.ersdal@ptil.no; Aven, Terje [University of Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-02-15

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle.

  2. The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

    Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

  3. A new web-based framework development for fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

    2016-01-01

    Fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making (FMCGDM) process is usually used when a group of decision-makers faces imprecise data or linguistic variables to solve the problems. However, this process contains many methods that require many time-consuming calculations depending on the number of criteria, alternatives and decision-makers in order to reach the optimal solution. In this study, a web-based FMCGDM framework that offers decision-makers a fast and reliable response service is proposed. The proposed framework includes commonly used tools for multi-criteria decision-making problems such as fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The integration of these methods enables taking advantages of the strengths and complements each method's weakness. Finally, a case study of location selection for landfill waste in Morocco is performed to demonstrate how this framework can facilitate decision-making process. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully accomplish the goal of this study.

  4. Agreement on Child Maltreatment Decisions: A Nonrandomized Study on the Effects of Structured Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartelink, C.; van Yperen, T. A.; ten Berge, I. J.; de Kwaadsteniet, L.; Witteman, C. L. M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Practitioners investigating cases of suspected child maltreatment often disagree whether a child is subject to or at risk of abuse or neglect in the family and, if so, what to do about such abuse or neglect. Structured decision-making is considered to be a solution to the problem of subjective judgments and decisions. Objective: This…

  5. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  6. Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2013-06-01

    The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

  7. Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Byron K; Johnson, Fred A

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

  8. Examination of Children Decision Making Using Clues during the Logical Reasoning Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çelik, Meryem

    2017-01-01

    Logical reasoning is the process of thinking about a problem and finding the most effective solution. Children's decision-making skills are part of their cognitive development and are also indicative. The purpose of this study was to examine children's decision-making skills using clues in logical reasoning based on various variables. The study…

  9. Approach to Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Problems Based on the Best-Worst-Method and ELECTRE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinshang You

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel approach to cope with the multi-criteria group decision-making problems. We give the pairwise comparisons based on the best-worst-method (BWM, which can decrease comparison times. Additionally, our comparison results are determined with the positive and negative aspects. In order to deal with the decision matrices effectively, we consider the elimination and choice translation reality (ELECTRE III method under the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relations environment. The ELECTRE III method is designed for a double-automatic system. Under a certain limitation, without bothering the decision-makers to reevaluate the alternatives, this system can adjust some special elements that have the most influence on the group’s satisfaction degree. Moreover, the proposed method is suitable for both the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relation and the interval valued fuzzy preference relations through the transformation formula. An illustrative example is followed to demonstrate the rationality and availability of the novel method.

  10. The effects of critical thinking instruction on training complex decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsdingen, A.S.; Bosch, K. van den; Gog, T. van; Merriënboer, J.J.G. van

    2010-01-01

    Objective : Two field studies assessed the effects of critical thinking instruction on training and transfer of a complex decision-making skill. Background : Critical thinking instruction is based on studies of how experienced decision makers approach complex problems. Method : Participants

  11. An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Lisa

    Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than

  12. Ethical implications and decision making in care education process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Layse Kelle Silva

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine ethical implications for nursing practice at the point of decision making by nursing professors in practice area. Methodology. A qualitative method was adopted, with use of semistructured interviews with sixteen nursing professors who delivered care at a teaching hospital in Salvador, Bahia, from May to June 2011. The methodological reference used was the discourse of the collective subject (DCS by Lefévre and Lefévre. Results. In response to DCSs, the following subjects appeared: "Ethics is fundamental and of vital importance in the decision making process," "searching for knowledge and research to identify problems and solutions, including alternatives and support for decisions," and "to act in the best way." Conclusion. Professors who provide education about patient care also delivered care. They have the responsibility to consider the ethical implications of decision making because they stimulate fundamental reflection and could positively influence future nursing professionals.

  13. Heuristic Decision-Making for Human-aware Navigation in Domestic Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Kirsch , Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    International audience; Robot navigation in domestic environments is still a challenge. This paper introduces a cognitively inspired decision-making method and an instantiation of it for (local) robot navigation in spatially constrained environments. We compare the method to two existing local planners with respect to efficiency, safety and legibility.

  14. Decision making, cognitive distortions and emotional distress: A comparison between pathological gamblers and healthy controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciccarelli, Maria; Griffiths, Mark D; Nigro, Giovanna; Cosenza, Marina

    2017-03-01

    The etiology of problem gambling is multifaceted and complex. Among others factors, poor decision making, cognitive distortions (i.e., irrational beliefs about gambling), and emotional factors (e.g., negative mood states) appear to be among the most important factors in the development and maintenance of problem gambling. Although empirical evidence has suggested that cognitive distortions facilitate gambling and negative emotions are associated with gambling, the interplay between cognitive distortions, emotional states, and decision making in gambling remains unexplored. Pathological gamblers (N = 54) and healthy controls (N = 54) completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale (GRCS), and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-21). Compared to healthy controls, pathological gamblers showed poorer decision making and reported higher scores on measures assessing cognitive distortions and emotional distress. All measures were positively associated with gambling severity. A significant negative correlation between decision making and cognitive distortions was also observed. No associations were found between poor decision making and emotional distress. Logistic regression analysis indicated that cognitive distortions, emotional distress, and poor decision making were significant predictors of problem gambling. The use of self-report measures and the absence of female participants limit the generalizability of the reported findings. The present study is the first to demonstrate the mutual influence between irrational beliefs and poor decision making, as well as the role of cognitive bias, emotional distress, and poor decision making in gambling disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

  16. The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

  17. Inverse Optimization and Forecasting Techniques Applied to Decision-making in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saez Gallego, Javier

    patterns that the load traditionally exhibited. On the other hand, this thesis is motivated by the decision-making processes of market players. In response to these challenges, this thesis provides mathematical models for decision-making under uncertainty in electricity markets. Demand-side bidding refers......This thesis deals with the development of new mathematical models that support the decision-making processes of market players. It addresses the problems of demand-side bidding, price-responsive load forecasting and reserve determination. From a methodological point of view, we investigate a novel...... approach to model the response of aggregate price-responsive load as a constrained optimization model, whose parameters are estimated from data by using inverse optimization techniques. The problems tackled in this dissertation are motivated, on one hand, by the increasing penetration of renewable energy...

  18. Making the case for evidence-based design in healthcare: a descriptive case study of organizational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Lorie K; Kazley, Abby Swanson; White, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the organizational decision-making process used in the selection of evidence-based design (EBD) concepts, the criteria used to make these decisions, and the extent to which leadership style may have influenced the decision-making process. Five research questions were formulated to frame the direction of this study, including: (1) How did healthcare leaders learn of innovations in design? (2) How did healthcare leaders make decisions in the selection of healthcare design concepts? (3) What criteria did healthcare leaders use in the decision-making process? (4) How did healthcare leaders consider input from the staff in design decisions? and (5) To what extent did the leadership style of administrators affect the outcomes of the decision-making process? Current issues affecting healthcare in the community led the principal investigator's organization to undertake an ambitious facilities expansion project. As part of its planning process, the organization learned of EBD principles that seemingly had a positive impact on patient care and safety and staff working conditions. Although promising, a paucity of empirical research addressed the cost/benefit of incorporating many EBD concepts into one hospital setting, and there was no research that articulated the organizational decision-making process used by healthcare administrators when considering the use of EBD in expansion projects. A mixed-method, descriptive, qualitative, single-case study and quantitative design were used to address the five research questions. The Systems Research Organizing Model provided the theoretical framework. A variety of data collection methods was used, including interviews of key respondents, the review of documentary evidence, and the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire. A participatory process was used throughout the design decision phases, involving staff at all levels of the organization. The Internet and architects facilitated learning about

  19. Maintenance planning support method for nuclear power plants based on collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Shunichi; Sakurai, Shoji; Takaoka, Kazushi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Fukutomi, Shigeki

    1992-01-01

    Inspection and maintenance planning in nuclear power plants is conducted by decision making based on experts' collective consensus. However, since a great deal of time and effort is required to reach a consensus among expert judgments, the establishment of effective decision making methods is necessary. Therefore, the authors developed a method for supporting collective decision making, based on a combination of three types of decision making methods; the Characteristic Diagram method, Interpretative Structural Modeling method, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The proposed method enables us to determine the evaluation criteria systematically for collective decision making, and also allows extracting collective decisions using simplified questionnaires. The proposed method can support reaching a consensus of groups effectively through the evaluation of collective decision structural models and their characteristics. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through its application to the decision making problem concerning whether or not the improved ultrasonic testing equipment should be adopted at nuclear power plants. (author)

  20. Collaborative Decision Making in METOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706

  1. Advancing in the Career Decision-Making Process: The Role of Coping Strategies and Career Decision-Making Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar

    2017-01-01

    We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…

  2. Decision-making: Theory and Practice

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Turpin, SM

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available of decision support technology. Much variation was found in people’s personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information...

  3. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  4. Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    OpenAIRE

    Claassen, G.D.H.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in practice. The tremendous progress in hard- and software of the past decades was an important gateway for developing computerized systems that are able to support decision making on different levels within enterprises. T...

  5. [Who makes decisions--the dilemma of decision-making within the framework of job-sharing in a hospital].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voglmayr, Elisabeth; Widder, Joachim

    2006-05-01

    By means of a case report on a 44-year-old female patient, we show how, with changing personnel and places of care, decisions as well as the kind of decision-making during illness influence the quality of care. The patient was receiving immunosuppressive therapy after kidney transplantation and then suffered from a carcinomatous ovary. At first she refused postoperative chemotherapy, but then returned with a very advanced state of metastatic growth. The lack of continuity, a missing overall interdisciplinary concept of medical case, as well as the failure to document decision processes and the patient's attitude to life and suffering made it difficult for the caring team to accompany her in the last weeks of life. A possible solution to such a complex problem will be the introduction of ethical case deliberation.

  6. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homberg, Judith R

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  8. "Making Do" Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Celia E; Polivka, Barbara J; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

    2016-04-01

    This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of "making do" decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Entrepreneurs` Cognitive and Decision Making Styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Motvaseli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.

  10. Serotonin shapes risky decision making in monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Arwen B; Kuhn, Cynthia M; Platt, Michael L

    2009-12-01

    Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in part due to the lack of a good animal model. We used dietary rapid tryptophan depletion (RTD) to acutely lower brain serotonin in three macaques performing a simple gambling task for fluid rewards. To confirm the efficacy of RTD experiments, we measured total plasma tryptophan using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with electrochemical detection. Reducing brain serotonin synthesis decreased preference for the safe option in a gambling task. Moreover, lowering brain serotonin function significantly decreased the premium required for monkeys to switch their preference to the risky option, suggesting that diminished serotonin signaling enhances the relative subjective value of the risky option. These results implicate serotonin in risk-sensitive decision making and, further, suggest pharmacological therapies for treating pathological risk preferences in disorders such as problem gambling and addiction.

  11. Decision making on fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

    2017-04-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

  12. Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

  13. Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern

    2001-01-01

    In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

  14. Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2001-07-01

    In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

  15. Participatory/problem-based methods and techniques for training in health and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosskam, E

    2001-01-01

    More knowledgeable and trained people are needed in the area of occupational health, safety, and environment (OSHE) if work-related fatalities, accidents, and diseases are to be reduced. Established systems have been largely ineffective, with few employers taking voluntary measures to protect workers and the environment and too few labor inspectors available. Training techniques using participatory methods and a worker empowerment philosophy have proven value. There is demonstrated need for the use of education for action, promoting the involvement of workers in all levels of decision-making and problem-solving in the workplace. OSH risks particular to women s jobs are virtually unstudied and not addressed at policy levels in most countries. Trade unions and health and safety professionals need to demystify technical areas, empower workers, and encourage unions to dedicate special activities around women s jobs. Trained women are excellent motivators and transmitters of safety culture. Particular emphasis is given to train-the-trainer approaches.

  16. A decision rule based on goal programming and one-stage models for uncertain multi-criteria mixed decision making and games against nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with games against nature and multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty along with scenario planning. We focus on decision problems where a deterministic evaluation of criteria is not possible. The procedure we propose is based on weighted goal programming and may be applied when seeking a mixed strategy. A mixed strategy allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new method takes into consideration the decision maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem. It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies, i.e. for decision making under complete uncertainty or decision making under strategic uncertainty. The procedure refers to one-stage models, i.e. models considering combinations of scenarios and criteria (scenario-criterion pairs as distinct meta-attributes, which means that the novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets. The algorithm does not require any information about frequencies, which is especially desirable for new decision problems. It can be successfully applied by passive decision makers, as only criteria weights and the coefficient of optimism have to be declared.

  17. An approach to solve group-decision-making problems with ordinal interval numbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhi-Ping; Liu, Yang

    2010-10-01

    The ordinal interval number is a form of uncertain preference information in group decision making (GDM), while it is seldom discussed in the existing research. This paper investigates how the ranking order of alternatives is determined based on preference information of ordinal interval numbers in GDM problems. When ranking a large quantity of ordinal interval numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the ranking process are critical. A new approach is proposed to rank alternatives using ordinal interval numbers when every ranking ordinal in an ordinal interval number is thought to be uniformly and independently distributed in its interval. First, we give the definition of possibility degree on comparing two ordinal interval numbers and the related theory analysis. Then, to rank alternatives, by comparing multiple ordinal interval numbers, a collective expectation possibility degree matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives is built, and an optimization model based on this matrix is constructed. Furthermore, an algorithm is also presented to rank alternatives by solving the model. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the use of the proposed approach.

  18. Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Mavis F.

    2001-01-01

    This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

  19. Health Care Decisions at the End of Life: Theological and Ethical Foundations for Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allegretti, Joseph G.

    This paper provides a framework for making sense of perplexing problems surrounding issues of death and dying by exploring the theological and ethical background to health care decision making at the end of life. The paper first examines several of the basic principles that theologians and secular ethicists employ when analyzing such questions.…

  20. A rational approach to decision making in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, B A; Sass, N L

    1984-06-01

    The application of the Kepner-Tregoe (C. H. Kepner and B. B. Tregoe, 1981, The New Rational Manager, Princeton Res. Press, Princeton, N. J.) problem solving technique to the evaluation and interpretation of toxicological information is described. Data from a chronic study provide an illustrative example. In this study an excess in the number of urinary bladder neoplasms was observed in male rats exposed to diets containing the test chemical. No similar effect was seen in treated female rats. Both male and female mice exposed to treatment also exhibited no effect. Whether treatment was the cause of the observed increase should be based on all the scientific and technical information that is relevant to this decision. The Kepner-Tregoe method of problem analysis captures this information in a framework that makes it easily understood. This is especially desirable if the judgments that are a vital part of regulatory decision making are to be adequately communicated.

  1. About the methodology of system synthesis of decision-makings and its procedures automation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Oleynikov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The problem qualitative assessment of technologies and innovations, which cannot be solved without modern methods and decision support systems, is currently particularly relevant. The reason for this is the increasingly increasing amount of heterogeneous information, which should take into account the decision maker. Reduction of the allowable period of decision-making also has a signifi cant impact on this process. These reasons are refl ected in the problems of network-centric warfare, nuclear management, forecasting, and conceptual design. It actualizes the problem of the synthesis of new methods of decision-making that will effectively solve the problem of choice of alternatives in those problem areas where the application of existing methods of decision-making is unfounded or inadmissible. The complexity of the process of creation of new decision-making methods caused by the high degree of utilization of cognitive processes. In accordance with the system-wide development trends the designer in the process of synthesis of the decision-makings should take a system (or group of systems which implements certain cognitive operations. The first step towards the creation of such a group of systems is the development of methodology of the system synthesis of decision-makings.Materials and methods. The scope of research are approaches to the synthesis of systems, and in particular – the synthesis of decision-makings. On the basis of multidimensional analysis and generalization of approach the methodology was developed, which consists of the main stages - goal setting, goal achievement and variations of the target system. Within each of the stages a wide variation of operations is possible to be used, which applied depending on the available data, obtained from the analysis of the subject area. With the use of the methodology obtained a number ofdecision-making methods, and their creation was carried out without

  2. Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire D Tomkins

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

  3. Stepwise Decision Making for Long-Term Radioactive Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, Claudio; Vari, Anna

    2003-01-01

    Consideration is increasingly being given, in radioactive waste management (RWM), to concepts such as 'stepwise decision making' and 'adaptive staging' in which the public, and especially the local communities, are also meaningfully involved in the review and planning of developments. The key feature of these concepts is development by steps or stages that are reversible, within the limits of practicability and provided they meet the requirements of an acceptable safety case. Stepwise decisions are designed to provide reassurance that actions can be reversed if experience shows them to have adverse or unwanted effects. Stepwise decision making has thus come to the fore as being especially important for making progress for radioactive waste management in a manner which is acceptable to large sectors of society. Despite its early identification within the RWM community as an important means for reaching decision in which there is broad-based confidence, stepwise decision making has not been widely debated. Accepted guiding principles of any such process have not yet been formulated, its roots in empirical social science research have not been fully reviewed, nor the difficulties of its implementation analysed. This paper reviews the current developments regarding stepwise decision making in RWM with the aim to pinpoint where it stands, to highlight its societal dimension, to analyse its roots in social sciences, and to identify guiding principles and issues in implementation. It is observed that there is convergence between the approach taken by the practitioners of RWM and the indications received from field studies in social research, and that general guiding principles can be proposed at least as a basis for further discussion. A strong basis for dialogue across disciplines thus exists. General methodological issues are also identified. This paper was developed in the framework of the activities of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence, which is presented in a

  4. Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

  5. Comparativism and the Grounds for Person-Centered Care and Shared Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlitz, Anders

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a new argument and a new value-theoretical ground for person-centered care and shared decision making that ascribes to it the role of enabling rational choice in situations involving clinical choice. Rather than referring to good health outcomes and/or ethical grounds such as patient autonomy, it argues that a plausible justification and ground for person-centered care and shared decision making is preservation of rationality in the face of comparative non-determinacy in clinical settings. Often, no alternative treatment will be better than or equal to every other alternative. In the face of such comparative non-determinacy, Ruth Chang has argued that we can make rational decisions by invoking reasons that are created through acts of willing. This article transfers this view to clinical decision making and argues that shared decision making provides a solution to non-determinacy problems in clinical settings. This view of the role of shared decision making provides a new understanding of its nature, and it also allows us to better understand when caregivers should engage in shared decision making and when they should not. Copyright 2017 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

  6. The Decision Tree: A Tool for Achieving Behavioral Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saren, Dru

    1999-01-01

    Presents a "Decision Tree" process for structuring team decision making and problem solving about specific student behavioral goals. The Decision Tree involves a sequence of questions/decisions that can be answered in "yes/no" terms. Questions address reasonableness of the goal, time factors, importance of the goal, responsibilities, safety,…

  7. Phenomenological theory of collective decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zafeiris, Anna; Koman, Zsombor; Mones, Enys

    2017-01-01

    An essential task of groups is to provide efficient solutions for the complex problems they face. Indeed, considerable efforts have been devoted to the question of collective decision-making related to problems involving a single dominant feature. Here we introduce a quantitative formalism...... for finding the optimal distribution of the group members’ competences in the more typical case when the underlying problem is complex, i.e., multidimensional. Thus, we consider teams that are aiming at obtaining the best possible answer to a problem having a number of independent sub-problems. Our approach...... is based on a generic scheme for the process of evaluating the proposed solutions (i.e., negotiation). We demonstrate that the best performing groups have at least one specialist for each sub-problem — but a far less intuitive result is that finding the optimal solution by the interacting group members...

  8. Counterfactual Thinking and Ethical Decision Making: A New Approach to an Old Problem for Marketing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celuch, Kevin; Saxby, Carl

    2013-01-01

    The present study extends understanding of the self-regulatory aspects of ethical decision making by integrating and exploring relationships among counterfactual thinking, attribution, anticipatory emotions, and ethical decision-making constructs and processes. Specifically, we examine the effects of a manipulation designed to stimulate a…

  9. An integrated information management system based DSS for problem solving and decision making in open & distance learning institutions of India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Khanna

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An integrated information system based DSS is developed for Open and Distance Learning (ODL institutions in India. The system has been web structured with the most suitable newly developed modules. A DSS model has been developed for solving semi-structured and unstructured problems including decision making with regard to various programmes and activities operating in the ODLIs. The DSS model designed for problem solving is generally based on quantitative formulas, whereas for problems involving imprecision and uncertainty, a fuzzy theory based DSS is employed. The computer operated system thus developed would help the ODLI management to quickly identify programmes and activities that require immediate attention. It shall also provide guidance for obtaining the most appropriate managerial decisions without any loss of time. As a result, the various subsystems operating in the ODLI are able to administer its activities more efficiently and effectively to enhance the overall performance of the concerned ODL institution to a new level.

  10. Decision-making impairment in anorexia nervosa: New insights into the role of age and decision-making style.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannunzio, Valeria; Degortes, Daniela; Tenconi, Elena; Collantoni, Enrico; Solmi, Marco; Santonastaso, Paolo; Favaro, Angela

    2018-07-01

    Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) often report difficulties in decision making, which may interfere with treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate decision making in a large sample of adolescent and adult patients with AN, by using the Iowa gambling task. Participants were 611 female individuals (310 patients and 301 controls) who underwent neuropsychological and clinical assessment. Significantly poorer decision-making performance was observed in adult patients, whereas no difference emerged between affected and nonaffected adolescents. Both adolescent and adult patients were characterized by trends for higher levels of attention to losses in comparison with healthy controls. Although healthy adult women exhibited better decision-making performance than healthy adolescents, in AN, there was no improvement of decision making with age. A cluster analysis identified 2 different styles of decision making in both patients and controls: a conservative style and an impulsive style. Our study provides evidence of dysfunctional decision making in adult patients with AN and reveals an association between poor decision making and excessive punishment sensitivity in AN. The clinical and scientific implications of these findings merit further exploration. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  11. Decision Making in Children and Adolescents: Impaired Iowa Gambling Task Performance in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Dana G.; Xiao, Lin; Bechara, Antoine

    2012-01-01

    Disadvantageous decision making is cited as one of the premier problems in childhood development, underlying risky behavior and causing adolescents to make poor choices that could prove detrimental later in life. However, there are relatively few studies looking at the development of decision making in children and adolescents, and fewer still…

  12. Motivations Underlying Career Decision-Making Activities: The Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guay, Frederic

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the present research was to develop and validate a measure of motivation toward career decision-making activities, the Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS). The CDMAS is designed to assess the constructs of intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, and external regulation. A longitudinal study was…

  13. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  14. Ethical decision-making in forensic psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Swanepoel

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop a comprehensive process for identifying and addressing primarily ethical issues related to the psychology profession in South Africa. In fulfilling this purpose, research was conducted of relevant ethical and to a lesser extent, legal aspects pertaining to the psychology profession. In an attempt to prevent unprofessional conduct claims against psychologists from succeeding and to alert psychologists to the concurrent ethical problems that may lead to malpractice suits, this article offers material on some important issues – in the context of forensic psychology – such as ethical decision-making and principles, professional ethics, the regulation of psychology as a profession, the Ethical Code of Professional Conduct to which a psychologist should adhere, ethical aspects and issues pertaining to forensic psychology in general, some ethical issues pertaining to child forensic psychology, summary guidelines for ethical decision-making and some steps to follow to ensure sound ethical decisionmaking.

  15. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Information Dominance: Informations Role in Influencing Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    satisfying enough to ensure safety and completion of the task. For example, the USS GREENEVILLE, SSN 772, was conducting a routine emergency surfacing...was developed by David J. Bryant of Defense Research and Development, Canada . It is designed to model command and control (C2) processes in alignment...adapt (CECA): A new model for command decision making. ( No. DRDC Toronto TR 2003-150). Toronto, Canada : Minister of National Defense. Bryant, D. J

  17. Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-01-04

    Jan 4, 2010 ... reliable information about the river basin in terms of physical, hydrological ... decision making (MCDM) methods to cope with water-related problems in .... tial tool to account for water availability and demand scenar- ios, and ...

  18. Ethical aspect price decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.

  19. Ethical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zsolnai, László

    2011-01-01

    The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

  20. A qualitative study of systemic influences on paramedic decision making: care transitions and patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Rachel; Johnson, Maxine; Siriwardena, A Niroshan; Weyman, Andrew; Turner, Janette; Shaw, Deborah; Mortimer, Peter; Newman, Chris; Hirst, Enid; Storey, Matthew; Mason, Suzanne; Quinn, Tom; Shewan, Jane

    2015-01-01

    Paramedics routinely make critical decisions about the most appropriate care to deliver in a complex system characterized by significant variation in patient case-mix, care pathways and linked service providers. There has been little research carried out in the ambulance service to identify areas of risk associated with decisions about patient care. The aim of this study was to explore systemic influences on decision making by paramedics relating to care transitions to identify potential risk factors. An exploratory multi-method qualitative study was conducted in three English National Health Service (NHS) Ambulance Service Trusts, focusing on decision making by paramedic and specialist paramedic staff. Researchers observed 57 staff across 34 shifts. Ten staff completed digital diaries and three focus groups were conducted with 21 staff. Nine types of decision were identified, ranging from emergency department conveyance and specialist emergency pathways to non-conveyance. Seven overarching systemic influences and risk factors potentially influencing decision making were identified: demand; performance priorities; access to care options; risk tolerance; training and development; communication and feedback and resources. Use of multiple methods provided a consistent picture of key systemic influences and potential risk factors. The study highlighted the increased complexity of paramedic decisions and multi-level system influences that may exacerbate risk. The findings have implications at the level of individual NHS Ambulance Service Trusts (e.g. ensuring an appropriately skilled workforce to manage diverse patient needs and reduce emergency department conveyance) and at the wider prehospital emergency care system level (e.g. ensuring access to appropriate patient care options as alternatives to the emergency department). © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  1. Shared decision-making and patient autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2009-01-01

    In patient-centred care, shared decision-making is advocated as the preferred form of medical decision-making. Shared decision-making is supported with reference to patient autonomy without abandoning the patient or giving up the possibility of influencing how the patient is benefited. It is, however, not transparent how shared decision-making is related to autonomy and, in effect, what support autonomy can give shared decision-making. In the article, different forms of shared decision-making are analysed in relation to five different aspects of autonomy: (1) self-realisation; (2) preference satisfaction; (3) self-direction; (4) binary autonomy of the person; (5) gradual autonomy of the person. It is argued that both individually and jointly these aspects will support the models called shared rational deliberative patient choice and joint decision as the preferred versions from an autonomy perspective. Acknowledging that both of these models may fail, the professionally driven best interest compromise model is held out as a satisfactory second-best choice.

  2. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  3. Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cetiner, Sacit M [ORNL; Kisner, Roger A [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Fugate, David L [ORNL

    2015-07-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The

  4. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...

  5. Human monitoring and decision-making in man/machine systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johannsen, G.

    1979-01-01

    Monitoring and decision-making together are very well characterizing the role of the human operator in highly automated systems. In this report, the analysis of human monitoring and decision-making behavior as well as its modeling are described. The goal is to present a survey. 'Classic' and optimal control theoretic monitoring models are dealt with. The relationship between attention allocation and eye movements is discussed. As an example for applications, the evaluation of predictor displays by means of the optimal control model is explained. Fault detection in continuous signals and decision-making behavior of the human operator in fault diagnosis during different operation and maintenance situations are illustrated. The computer-aided decision-making is considered as a queueing problem. It is shown to what extent computer-aiding may be based on the state of human activity as measured by psychophysiological quantities. Finally, management information systems for different application areas are mentioned. As an appendix, the report includes an English-written paper in which the possibilities of mathematical modeling of human behavior in complex man-machine systems are critically assessed. (orig.) 891 GL/orig. 892 MKO [de

  6. When Irrational Biases Are Smart: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory of Complex Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Reyna

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available I take a decision-making approach to consider ways of addressing the “unresolved and dramatic problems in the world”. Traditional approaches to good decision-making are reviewed. These approaches reduce complex decisions to tradeoffs between magnitudes of probabilities, and outcomes in which the quantity and precision of information are key to making good decisions. I discuss a contrasting framework, called “fuzzy-trace theory”, which emphasizes understanding the simple gist of options and applying core social and moral values. Importantly, the tendency to rely on meaningful but simple gist increases from childhood to adulthood (or, in adulthood, as people gain experience in a domain, so that specific irrational biases grow with knowledge and experience. As predicted theoretically, these violations of rationality in the traditional sense are associated empirically with healthier and more adaptive outcomes. Thus, interventions that help decision makers understand the essential gist of their options and how it connects to core values are practical approaches to reducing “unresolved and dramatic problems in the world” one decision at a time.

  7. Understanding health decisions using critical realism: home-dialysis decision-making during chronic kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, Lori; Clark, Alexander M

    2012-03-01

    Understanding health decisions using critical realism: home-dialysis decision-making during chronic kidney disease This paper examines home-dialysis decision making in people with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) from the perspective of critical realism. CKD programmes focus on patient education for self-management to delay the progression of kidney disease and the preparation and support for renal replacement therapy e.g.) dialysis and transplantation. Home-dialysis has clear health, societal and economic benefits yet service usage is low despite efforts to realign resources and educate individuals. Current research on the determinants of modality selection is superficial and insufficient to capture the complexities embedded in the process of dialysis modality selection. Predictors of home-dialysis selection and the effect of chronic kidney disease educational programmes provide a limited explanation of this experience. A re-conceptualization of the problem is required in order to fully understand this process. The epistemology and ontology of critical realism guides our knowledge and methodology particularly suited for examination of these complexities. This approach examines the deeper mechanisms and wider determinants associated with modality decision making, specifically who chooses home dialysis and under what circumstances. Until more is known regarding dialysis modality decision making service usage of home dialysis will remain low as interventions will be based on inadequate epistemology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING APPROACH FOR INDUSTRIAL ENGINEER SELECTION USING FUZZY AHP-FUZZY TOPSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Deliktaş, Derya; ÜSTÜN, Özden

    2018-01-01

    In this study, a fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making approach is proposed to select an industrial engineer among ten candidates in a manufacturing environment. The industrial engineer selection problem is a special case of the personal selection problem. This problem, which has hierarchical structure of criteria and many decision makers, contains many criteria. The evaluation process of decision makers also includes ambiguous parameters. The fuzzy AHP is used to determin...

  9. Before you make that big decision...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan; Sibony, Olivier

    2011-06-01

    When an executive makes a big bet, he or she typically relies on the judgment of a team that has put together a proposal for a strategic course of action. After all, the team will have delved into the pros and cons much more deeply than the executive has time to do. The problem is, biases invariably creep into any team's reasoning-and often dangerously distort its thinking. A team that has fallen in love with its recommendation, for instance, may subconsciously dismiss evidence that contradicts its theories, give far too much weight to one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case. That's why, with important decisions, executives need to conduct a careful review not only of the content of recommendations but of the recommendation process. To that end, the authors-Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases; Lovallo of the University of Sydney; and Sibony of McKinsey-have put together a 12-question checklist intended to unearth and neutralize defects in teams' thinking. These questions help leaders examine whether a team has explored alternatives appropriately, gathered all the right information, and used well-grounded numbers to support its case. They also highlight considerations such as whether the team might be unduly influenced by self-interest, overconfidence, or attachment to past decisions. By using this practical tool, executives will build decision processes over time that reduce the effects of biases and upgrade the quality of decisions their organizations make. The payoffs can be significant: A recent McKinsey study of more than 1,000 business investments, for instance, showed that when companies worked to reduce the effects of bias, they raised their returns on investment by seven percentage points. Executives need to realize that the judgment of even highly experienced, superbly competent managers can be fallible. A disciplined decision-making process, not individual genius, is the key to good

  10. Making the Optimal Decision in Selecting Protective Clothing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, J. Mark

    2008-01-01

    Protective Clothing plays a major role in the decommissioning and operation of nuclear facilities. Literally thousands of dress-outs occur over the life of a decommissioning project and during outages at operational plants. In order to make the optimal decision on which type of protective clothing is best suited for the decommissioning or maintenance and repair work on radioactive systems, a number of interrelating factors must be considered. This article discusses these factors as well as surveys of plants regarding their level of usage of single use protective clothing and should help individuals making decisions about protective clothing as it applies to their application. Individuals considering using SUPC should not jump to conclusions. The survey conducted clearly indicates that plants have different drivers. An evaluation should be performed to understand the facility's true drivers for selecting clothing. It is recommended that an interdisciplinary team be formed including representatives from budgets and cost, safety, radwaste, health physics, and key user groups to perform the analysis. The right questions need to be asked and answered by the company providing the clothing to formulate a proper perspective and conclusion. The conclusions and recommendations need to be shared with senior management so that the drivers, expected results, and associated costs are understood and endorsed. In the end, the individual making the recommendation should ask himself/herself: 'Is my decision emotional, or logical and economical?' 'Have I reached the optimal decision for my plant?'

  11. The Relationship of Decision-Making Styles and Attributional Styles in Addicted and Non-addicted Men

    OpenAIRE

    Shaghaghy, Farhad; Saffarinia, Majid; Iranpoor, Mohadeseh; Soltanynejad, Ali

    2011-01-01

    Background One of social problems which has affected our society and resulted in problems for different groups of people is drug abuse. This issue indicates a serious psychological, physical and social problem in community. Social skills have positive and successful influences in prevention of substance abuse. This includes the ability to explain events correctly and then appropriate decision making. This study compares decision making styles and attributional styles between addicted and non ...

  12. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  13. Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

  14. Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Tian

    In this dissertation we study emergent collective decision-making in social groups with time-varying interactions and heterogeneously informed individuals. First we analyze a nonlinear dynamical systems model motivated by animal collective motion with heterogeneously informed subpopulations, to examine the role of uninformed individuals. We find through formal analysis that adding uninformed individuals in a group increases the likelihood of a collective decision. Secondly, we propose a model for human shared decision-making with continuous-time feedback and where individuals have little information about the true preferences of other group members. We study model equilibria using bifurcation analysis to understand how the model predicts decisions based on the critical threshold parameters that represent an individual's tradeoff between social and environmental influences. Thirdly, we analyze continuous-time data of pairs of human subjects performing an experimental shared tracking task using our second proposed model in order to understand transient behavior and the decision-making process. We fit the model to data and show that it reproduces a wide range of human behaviors surprisingly well, suggesting that the model may have captured the mechanisms of observed behaviors. Finally, we study human behavior from a game-theoretic perspective by modeling the aforementioned tracking task as a repeated game with incomplete information. We show that the majority of the players are able to converge to playing Nash equilibrium strategies. We then suggest with simulations that the mean field evolution of strategies in the population resemble replicator dynamics, indicating that the individual strategies may be myopic. Decisions form the basis of control and problems involving deciding collectively between alternatives are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering. Understanding how multi-agent systems make decisions among alternatives also provides insight for designing

  15. Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and

  16. Fuzzy group decision making in a competetive situation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Jiang; Yan, J.; van Harten, Aart; van der Wegen, Leonardus L.M.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper a group decision making problem in a competitive situation with two opponents is considered. Uncertainty in the score assessment for both opponents of any individual of the group as well as between group members is taken into account by means of fuzzy sets. The individual scores can be

  17. Perspectives about Living on the Horns of Dilemmas: An Analysis of Gender Factors Related to Superintendent Decision-Making and Problem-Solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polka, Walter S.; Litchka, Peter R.; Calzi, Frank F.; Denig, Stephen J.; Mete, Rosina E.

    2014-01-01

    The major focus of this paper is a gender-based analysis of school superintendent decision-making and problem-solving as well as an investigation of contemporary leadership dilemmas. The findings are based on responses from 258 superintendents of K-12 school districts in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania collected over a…

  18. Decision making based on optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions between quantum dots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naruse, Makoto; Nomura, Wataru; Ohtsu, Motoichi; Aono, Masashi; Sonnefraud, Yannick; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Kim, Song-Ju

    2014-01-01

    Optical near-field interactions between nanostructured matters, such as quantum dots, result in unidirectional optical excitation transfer when energy dissipation is induced. This results in versatile spatiotemporal dynamics of the optical excitation, which can be controlled by engineering the dissipation processes and exploited to realize intelligent capabilities such as solution searching and decision making. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve a decision making problem on the basis of optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions by using colloidal quantum dots of different sizes, formed on a geometry-controlled substrate. We characterize the energy transfer behavior due to multiple control light patterns and experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve the multi-armed bandit problem. Our work makes a decisive step towards the practical design of nanophotonic systems capable of efficient decision making, one of the most important intellectual attributes of the human brain.

  19. Decision making based on optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions between quantum dots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naruse, Makoto, E-mail: naruse@nict.go.jp [Photonic Network Research Institute, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, 4-2-1 Nukui-kita, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan); Nomura, Wataru; Ohtsu, Motoichi [Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Systems, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Aono, Masashi [Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguru-ku, Tokyo 152-8550 (Japan); PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi-shi, Saitama 332-0012 (Japan); Sonnefraud, Yannick; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge [Université Grenoble Alpes, Inst. NEEL, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, Inst. NEEL, F-38042 Grenoble (France); Kim, Song-Ju [WPI Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics, National Institute for Materials Science, 1-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0044 (Japan)

    2014-10-21

    Optical near-field interactions between nanostructured matters, such as quantum dots, result in unidirectional optical excitation transfer when energy dissipation is induced. This results in versatile spatiotemporal dynamics of the optical excitation, which can be controlled by engineering the dissipation processes and exploited to realize intelligent capabilities such as solution searching and decision making. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve a decision making problem on the basis of optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions by using colloidal quantum dots of different sizes, formed on a geometry-controlled substrate. We characterize the energy transfer behavior due to multiple control light patterns and experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve the multi-armed bandit problem. Our work makes a decisive step towards the practical design of nanophotonic systems capable of efficient decision making, one of the most important intellectual attributes of the human brain.

  20. Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

    2015-10-01

    Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

  1. Electroencephalogy (EEG) Feedback in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-26

    Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision- Making The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful...feedback when training rapid decision-making. More specifically, EEG will allow us to provide online feedback about the neural decision processes...Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision-Making Report Title The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful

  2. Managerial Decision Making in Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Perić

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.

  3. The effects of scientific literacy on participation to political decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Süerdem Ahmet

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The low levels of scientific literacy among the general public in a society where technology penetrates all aspects of everyday life creates major citizenship problems. One of the main goals of education is increasing the civic scientific literacy of the citizens besides preparing students for science based vocations. Well educated human capital stock is important for informed decision making as well as the development of research and development activities. The quality of policy decisions is highly dependent on the level of interest, information and attitudes towards S&T. Making conscious decisions about S&T related developments is substantial for democratic participation of the public to policy making. Increasing complexity of science and technology related issues creates a gap between expert and citizen knowledge. Scientific literacy decreases this gap in terms of creating a knowledgeable approach to the controversies around scientific issues. The aim of this study is to make an operational model for explaining how civic scientific literacy affects public understanding of science and these in turn influence participation to political decision making. We analyse the effects of scientific literacy and other public understanding of science variables on participation to political decision making.

  4. A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

    2009-04-01

    . In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be

  5. GROUPS DECISION MAKING WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Stan

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In a highly global market, organizations that have the ability to analyze and rapidly respond to the constantly changing marketplace will have the greatest chance of remaining competitive and profitable. Group decision making is the process of arriving at a judgment based upon the feedback of multiple individuals. Due to the importance of the group decision making process, decision making models can be used to establish a systematic means of developing effective group decision making. Once a decision has been made, the members of the group should be willing to accept it and support its implementations.

  6. Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbeling, Dieneke

    2014-05-01

    Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

  7. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2010-09-01

    The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. An integrative multi-criteria decision making techniques for supplier evaluation problem with its application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatrias, D.; Kamil, I.; Meilani, D.

    2018-03-01

    Coordinating business operation with suppliers becomes increasingly important to survive and prosper under the dynamic business environment. A good partnership with suppliers not only increase efficiency, but also strengthen corporate competitiveness. Associated with such concern, this study aims to develop a practical approach of multi-criteria supplier evaluation using combined methods of Taguchi loss function (TLF), best-worst method (BWM) and VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR). A new framework of integrative approach adopting these methods is our main contribution for supplier evaluation in literature. In this integrated approach, a compromised supplier ranking list based on the loss score of suppliers is obtained using efficient steps of a pairwise comparison based decision making process. Implemetation to the case problem with real data from crumb rubber industry shows the usefulness of the proposed approach. Finally, a suitable managerial implication is presented.

  9. Permutation based decision making under fuzzy environment using Tabu search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Bashiri

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the techniques, which are used for Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM is the permutation. In the classical form of permutation, it is assumed that weights and decision matrix components are crisp. However, when group decision making is under consideration and decision makers could not agree on a crisp value for weights and decision matrix components, fuzzy numbers should be used. In this article, the fuzzy permutation technique for MCDM problems has been explained. The main deficiency of permutation is its big computational time, so a Tabu Search (TS based algorithm has been proposed to reduce the computational time. A numerical example has illustrated the proposed approach clearly. Then, some benchmark instances extracted from literature are solved by proposed TS. The analyses of the results show the proper performance of the proposed method.

  10. Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

    2015-11-01

    In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Neural substrates of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broche-Pérez, Y; Herrera Jiménez, L F; Omar-Martínez, E

    2016-06-01

    Decision-making is the process of selecting a course of action from among 2 or more alternatives by considering the potential outcomes of selecting each option and estimating its consequences in the short, medium and long term. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has traditionally been considered the key neural structure in decision-making process. However, new studies support the hypothesis that describes a complex neural network including both cortical and subcortical structures. The aim of this review is to summarise evidence on the anatomical structures underlying the decision-making process, considering new findings that support the existence of a complex neural network that gives rise to this complex neuropsychological process. Current evidence shows that the cortical structures involved in decision-making include the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This process is assisted by subcortical structures including the amygdala, thalamus, and cerebellum. Findings to date show that both cortical and subcortical brain regions contribute to the decision-making process. The neural basis of decision-making is a complex neural network of cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections which includes subareas of the PFC, limbic structures, and the cerebellum. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. The Level of Automation in Emergency Quick Disconnect Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imset Marius

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available As a key measure for safety and environmental protection during offshore well operations, drill rigs are equipped with Emergency Quick Disconnect (EQD systems. However, an EQD operation is in itself considered a risky operation with a major economic impact. For this reason, it is of great importance to aid the operators in their assessment of the situation at all times, and help them make the best decisions. However, despite the availability of such systems, accidents do happen. This demonstrates the vulnerability of our human decision-making capabilities in extremely stressful situations. One way of improving the overall human-system performance with respect to EQD is to increase the level and quality of the automation and decision support systems. Although there is plenty of evidence that automated systems have weaknesses, there is also evidence that advanced software systems outperform humans in complex decision-making. The major challenge is to make sure that EQD is performed when necessary, but there is also a need to decrease the number of false EQDs. This paper applies an existing framework for levels of automation in order to explore the critical decision process leading to an EQD. We provide an overview of the benefits and drawbacks of existing automation and decision support systems vs. manual human decision-making. Data are collected from interviews of offshore users, suppliers, and oil companies, as well as from formal operational procedures. Findings are discussed using an established framework for the level of automation. Our conclusion is that there is an appropriate level of automation in critical situations related to the loss of the position of the drill rig, and that there is the promising potential to increase the autonomy level in a mid- and long-term situation assessment.

  13. Making Decisions by Analytical Chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov

    . These discrepancies are very unfortunate because erroneous conclusions may arise from an otherwise meticulous and dedicated effort of research staff. This may eventually lead to unreliable conclusions thus jeopardizing investigations of environmental monitoring, climate changes, food safety, clinical chemistry......It has been long recognized that results of analytical chemistry are not flawless, owing to the fact that professional laboratories and research laboratories analysing the same type of samples by the same type of instruments are likely to obtain significantly different results. The European......, forensics and other fields of science where analytical chemistry is the key instrument of decision making. In order to elucidate the potential origin of the statistical variations found among laboratories, a major program was undertaken including several analytical technologies where the purpose...

  14. Quantified risk assessment: its input to decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The conclusions are that QRA cannot be ignored in decision making, that human behaviour can significantly influence the standard of safety achieved in practice, that QRA can assist judgement, that it is not legitimate to 'read across' risk figures from one type of hazard to another to infer a uniform numerical level or limit and finally that major disasters can and do happen but the chance of any one happening must be kept very low. (author)

  15. Decision Making in Uncertain Rural Scenarios by means of Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Armero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A great deal of uncertain information which is difficult to quantify is taken into account by farmers and experts in the enterprise when making decisions. We are interested in the problems of the implementation of a rabbit-breeding farm. One of the first decisions to be taken refers to the design or type of structure for housing the animals, which is determined by the level of environmental control sought to be maintained in its interior. A farmer was consulted, and his answers were incorporated into the analysis, by means of the fuzzy TOPSIS methodology. The main purpose of this paper is to study the problem by means of the fuzzy TOPSIS method as multicriteria decision making, when the information was given in linguistic terms.

  16. Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

    2017-12-01

    The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Huang

    Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  18. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  19. Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

    2018-04-09

    Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.

  20. Evaluation of Cloud Services: A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santoso Wibowo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making method for evaluating the performance of Cloud services in an uncertain environment. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to better model the subjectivity and imprecision in the performance evaluation process. An effective algorithm is developed based on the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution and the Choquet integral operator for adequately solving the performance evaluation problem. An example is presented for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method for solving the multi-criteria group decision making problem in real situations.