ROC Analysis for Evaluation of Radiation Biodosimetry Technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, Benjamin B.; Swartz, Harold M.; Flood, Ann Barry; Demidenko, Eugene

2016-01-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a fundamental tool used for the evaluation and comparison of diagnostic systems that provides estimates of the combinations of sensitivity and specificity that can be achieved with a given technique. Along with critical considerations of practical limitations, such as throughput and time to availability of results, ROC analyses can be applied to provide meaningful assessments and comparisons of available biodosimetry methods. Accordingly, guidance from the Food and Drug Administration to evaluate biodosimetry devices recommends using ROC analysis. However, the existing literature for the numerous biodosimetry methods that have been developed to address the needs for triage either do not contain ROC analyses or present ROC analyses where the dose distributions of the study samples are not representative of the populations to be screened. The use of non-representative sample populations can result in a significant spectrum bias, where estimated performance metrics do not accurately characterize the true performance under real-world conditions. Particularly, in scenarios where a large group of people is screened because they were potentially exposed in a large-scale radiation event, directly measured population data do not exist. However, a number of complex simulations have been performed and reported in the literature that provide estimates of the required dose distributions. Based on these simulations and reported data about the output and uncertainties of biodosimetry assays, we illustrate how ROC curves can be generated that incorporate a realistic representative sample. A technique to generate ROC curves for biodosimetry data is presented along with representative ROC curves, summary statistics and discussion based on published data for triage-ready electron paramagnetic resonance in vivo tooth dosimetry, the dicentric chromosome assay and quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay. We argue that this

Statistical properties of a utility measure of observer performance compared to area under the ROC curve

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Abbey, Craig K.; Samuelson, Frank W.; Gallas, Brandon D.; Boone, John M.; Niklason, Loren T.

2013-03-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has become a common tool for evaluating diagnostic imaging technologies, and the primary endpoint of such evaluations is the area under the curve (AUC), which integrates sensitivity over the entire false positive range. An alternative figure of merit for ROC studies is expected utility (EU), which focuses on the relevant region of the ROC curve as defined by disease prevalence and the relative utility of the task. However if this measure is to be used, it must also have desirable statistical properties keep the burden of observer performance studies as low as possible. Here, we evaluate effect size and variability for EU and AUC. We use two observer performance studies recently submitted to the FDA to compare the EU and AUC endpoints. The studies were conducted using the multi-reader multi-case methodology in which all readers score all cases in all modalities. ROC curves from the study were used to generate both the AUC and EU values for each reader and modality. The EU measure was computed assuming an iso-utility slope of 1.03. We find mean effect sizes, the reader averaged difference between modalities, to be roughly 2.0 times as big for EU as AUC. The standard deviation across readers is roughly 1.4 times as large, suggesting better statistical properties for the EU endpoint. In a simple power analysis of paired comparison across readers, the utility measure required 36% fewer readers on average to achieve 80% statistical power compared to AUC.

Diagnostic accuracy of quantitative 99mTc-MIBI scintimammography according to ROC curve analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. H.; Lee, H. K.; Seo, J. W.; Cho, N. S.; Cha, K. H.; Lee, T. H.

1998-01-01

99mTc-sestamibi scintimammography (SMM) has been shown to be a useful diagnostic test in the detection of breast cancer and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis provides detailed information of a diagnostic test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of quantitative indices of SMM in the detection of malignant breast lesions according to ROC analysis. Prone anterior, lateral planar and supine SPECT imagings were performed on 75 female patients (mean age=43.4 yr) with breast mass (size≥0.8cm) after intravenous injection of 20-30 mCi 99mTc-sestamibi. 45 Malignant (Invasive ductal ca(36), Inv lobular ca(5), Inv duc + lob (1), Inv tubular ca (3)) and 30 benign (fibroadenoma (13), fib cyst(12), Fat necrosis(3), papilloma(1), paraffinoma (1)) lesions were histologically proven. Data were analyzed by creating three regions of interest (ROIs) over designated areas: lesion, normal breast and right chest wall. Lesion to normal (L/NL) and lesion to chest wall (L/CW) ratios were calculated for each patient both on the planar and SPECT. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated and compared among four semiquantitative indices and an average scintimammographic index (SMM(mean)) from arithmatic mean. ROC curve analysis revealed planar L/N, SPECT L/N and L/CW ratios provide comparable better diagnostic accuracies for detection of breast cancer than planar L/CW ratio (p<0.05), respectively. For quantitative SMM of 75 lesions, malignancy rate was 60%, and Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive Value, Negative Predictive Value and Accuracy were 0.78, 0.77, 0.84, 0.72 and 0.77, respectively. Quantitative SMM is an useful objective method for differentiating malignant from benign breast lesions

Diagnostic accuracy of quantitative 99mTc-MIBI scintimammography according to ROC curve analysis

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Kim, J. H.; Lee, H. K.; Seo, J. W.; Cho, N. S.; Cha, K. H.; Lee, T. H. [Gachon Medical College, Gil Medical Center, Inchon (Korea, Republic of)

1998-07-01

99mTc-sestamibi scintimammography (SMM) has been shown to be a useful diagnostic test in the detection of breast cancer and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis provides detailed information of a diagnostic test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of quantitative indices of SMM in the detection of malignant breast lesions according to ROC analysis. Prone anterior, lateral planar and supine SPECT imagings were performed on 75 female patients (mean age=43.4 yr) with breast mass (size{>=}0.8cm) after intravenous injection of 20-30 mCi 99mTc-sestamibi. 45 Malignant (Invasive ductal ca(36), Inv lobular ca(5), Inv duc + lob (1), Inv tubular ca (3)) and 30 benign (fibroadenoma (13), fib cyst(12), Fat necrosis(3), papilloma(1), paraffinoma (1)) lesions were histologically proven. Data were analyzed by creating three regions of interest (ROIs) over designated areas: lesion, normal breast and right chest wall. Lesion to normal (L/NL) and lesion to chest wall (L/CW) ratios were calculated for each patient both on the planar and SPECT. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated and compared among four semiquantitative indices and an average scintimammographic index (SMM(mean)) from arithmatic mean. ROC curve analysis revealed planar L/N, SPECT L/N and L/CW ratios provide comparable better diagnostic accuracies for detection of breast cancer than planar L/CW ratio (p<0.05), respectively. For quantitative SMM of 75 lesions, malignancy rate was 60%, and Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive Value, Negative Predictive Value and Accuracy were 0.78, 0.77, 0.84, 0.72 and 0.77, respectively. Quantitative SMM is an useful objective method for differentiating malignant from benign breast lesions.

Basic principles of ROC analysis

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Metz, C.E.

1978-01-01

The limitations of diagnostic accuracy as a measure of decision performance require introduction of the concepts of the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test. These measures and the related indices, true positive fraction and false positive fraction, are more meaningful than accuracy, yet do not provide a unique description of diagnostic performance because they depend on the arbitrary selection of a decision threshold. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is shown to be a simple yet complete empirical description of this decision threshold effect, indicating all possible combinations of the relative frequencies of the various kinds of correct and incorrect decisions. Practical experimental techniques for measuring ROC curves are described, and the issues of case selection and curve-fitting are discussed briefly. Possible generalizations of conventional ROC analysis to account for decision performance in complex diagnostic tasks are indicated. ROC analysis is shown to be related in a direct and natural way to cost/benefit analysis of diagnostic decision making. The concepts of average diagnostic cost and average net benefit are developed and used to identify the optimal compromise among various kinds of diagnostic error. Finally, the way in which ROC analysis can be employed to optimize diagnostic strategies is suggested

Applications of ROC analysis in diagnostic image evaluation

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Metz, C.E.

1979-01-01

The need for Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis is indicated by a discussion of the limitations of accuracy and of sensitivity and specificity as indices of diagnostic detection or discrmination performance. The concept of a variable decision threshold is shown to lead in a natural way to the ROC curve as a means for specifying diagnostic performance. Practical techniques for measuring ROC curves are described, and directions for possible generalizations of conventional ROC analysis are indicated

The role of scintimammography and mammography in recurrent breast cancer. Evaluation of their accuracy using ROC curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolasinska, A.D.; Buscombe, J.R.; Cwikla, J.B.; Hilson, A.J.W.; Holloway, B.; Parbhoo, S.P.; Davidson, T.

2001-01-01

With the increasing demand for breast conservation surgery, the probability of recurrent tumour within the breast increases. Traditionally x-ray mammography (XMM) was used to assess the post-surgical breast, but post-surgery and radiotherapy changes have reduced the accuracy of this method. Scintimammography (SMM) has also been proposed and appears to be more accurate than XMM. A total of 101 women received Tc99m MIBI SMM and 88 had a subsequent XMM. There were 142 sites suspected of loco-regional recurrence breast cancer. During the study the patients did not receive any treatment other then hormonotherapy. SMM was performed by the standard Diggles-Khalkhali method and XMM was performed using standard 2 views. Analysis was performed and the results of each type of imaging compared with histology. In the ROC curve analysis 5 points of certainty were used: from 1 being definitely normal to 5 being definitely cancer; grades 4 and 5 were counted as positive. The overall sensitivity value of SMM was 84% and specificity was 85%, compared with a sensitivity of 52% for XMM and a specificity of 84%. Analysis of areas under ROC curves provides statistically significant difference between SMM and XMM (p < 0.05). Combining the two tests did not significantly improve the diagnostic accuracy of sequence imaging over SMM. ROC curve analysis demonstrates that scintimammography should be the primary investigation in suspected local recurrence following breast conservation surgery. (author)

Not proper ROC curves as new tool for the analysis of differentially expressed genes in microarray experiments

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Pistoia Vito

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most microarray experiments are carried out with the purpose of identifying genes whose expression varies in relation with specific conditions or in response to environmental stimuli. In such studies, genes showing similar mean expression values between two or more groups are considered as not differentially expressed, even if hidden subclasses with different expression values may exist. In this paper we propose a new method for identifying differentially expressed genes, based on the area between the ROC curve and the rising diagonal (ABCR. ABCR represents a more general approach than the standard area under the ROC curve (AUC, because it can identify both proper (i.e., concave and not proper ROC curves (NPRC. In particular, NPRC may correspond to those genes that tend to escape standard selection methods. Results We assessed the performance of our method using data from a publicly available database of 4026 genes, including 14 normal B cell samples (NBC and 20 heterogeneous lymphomas (namely: 9 follicular lymphomas and 11 chronic lymphocytic leukemias. Moreover, NBC also included two sub-classes, i.e., 6 heavily stimulated and 8 slightly or not stimulated samples. We identified 1607 differentially expressed genes with an estimated False Discovery Rate of 15%. Among them, 16 corresponded to NPRC and all escaped standard selection procedures based on AUC and t statistics. Moreover, a simple inspection to the shape of such plots allowed to identify the two subclasses in either one class in 13 cases (81%. Conclusion NPRC represent a new useful tool for the analysis of microarray data.

Compare diagnostic tests using transformation-invariant smoothed ROC curves⋆

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Tang, Liansheng; Du, Pang; Wu, Chengqing

2012-01-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, plotting true positive rates against false positive rates as threshold varies, is an important tool for evaluating biomarkers in diagnostic medicine studies. By definition, ROC curve is monotone increasing from 0 to 1 and is invariant to any monotone transformation of test results. And it is often a curve with certain level of smoothness when test results from the diseased and non-diseased subjects follow continuous distributions. Most existing ROC curve estimation methods do not guarantee all of these properties. One of the exceptions is Du and Tang (2009) which applies certain monotone spline regression procedure to empirical ROC estimates. However, their method does not consider the inherent correlations between empirical ROC estimates. This makes the derivation of the asymptotic properties very difficult. In this paper we propose a penalized weighted least square estimation method, which incorporates the covariance between empirical ROC estimates as a weight matrix. The resulting estimator satisfies all the aforementioned properties, and we show that it is also consistent. Then a resampling approach is used to extend our method for comparisons of two or more diagnostic tests. Our simulations show a significantly improved performance over the existing method, especially for steep ROC curves. We then apply the proposed method to a cancer diagnostic study that compares several newly developed diagnostic biomarkers to a traditional one. PMID:22639484

The validity of using ROC software for analysing visual grading characteristics data: an investigation based on the novel software VGC analyzer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, Jonny; Maansson, Lars Gunnar; Baath, Magnus

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present work was to investigate the validity of using single-reader-adapted receiver operating characteristics (ROC) software for analysis of visual grading characteristics (VGC) data. VGC data from four published VGC studies on optimisation of X-ray examinations, previously analysed using ROCFIT, were reanalysed using a recently developed software dedicated to VGC analysis (VGC Analyzer), and the outcomes [the mean and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of the area under the VGC curve (AUC VGC ) and the p-value] were compared. The studies included both paired and non-paired data and were reanalysed both for the fixed-reader and the random-reader situations. The results showed good agreement between the softwares for the mean AUC VGC . For non-paired data, wider CIs were obtained with VGC Analyzer than previously reported, whereas for paired data, the previously reported CIs were similar or even broader. Similar observations were made for the p-values. The results indicate that the use of single-reader-adapted ROC software such as ROCFIT for analysing non-paired VGC data may lead to an increased risk of committing Type I errors, especially in the random-reader situation. On the other hand, the use of ROC software for analysis of paired VGC data may lead to an increased risk of committing Type II errors, especially in the fixed-reader situation. (authors)

Optimizing area under the ROC curve using semi-supervised learning.

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Wang, Shijun; Li, Diana; Petrick, Nicholas; Sahiner, Berkman; Linguraru, Marius George; Summers, Ronald M

2015-01-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a standard methodology to evaluate the performance of a binary classification system. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a performance metric that summarizes how well a classifier separates two classes. Traditional AUC optimization techniques are supervised learning methods that utilize only labeled data (i.e., the true class is known for all data) to train the classifiers. In this work, inspired by semi-supervised and transductive learning, we propose two new AUC optimization algorithms hereby referred to as semi-supervised learning receiver operating characteristic (SSLROC) algorithms, which utilize unlabeled test samples in classifier training to maximize AUC. Unlabeled samples are incorporated into the AUC optimization process, and their ranking relationships to labeled positive and negative training samples are considered as optimization constraints. The introduced test samples will cause the learned decision boundary in a multidimensional feature space to adapt not only to the distribution of labeled training data, but also to the distribution of unlabeled test data. We formulate the semi-supervised AUC optimization problem as a semi-definite programming problem based on the margin maximization theory. The proposed methods SSLROC1 (1-norm) and SSLROC2 (2-norm) were evaluated using 34 (determined by power analysis) randomly selected datasets from the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository. Wilcoxon signed rank tests showed that the proposed methods achieved significant improvement compared with state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methods were also applied to a CT colonography dataset for colonic polyp classification and showed promising results.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for classification of {sup 18}F-NaF uptake on PET/CT

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Valadares, Agnes Araujo, E-mail: agnesvaladares@me.com [Universidade de Sao Paulo (HC/FM/USP), SP (Brazil). Hospital das Clinicas. Fac. de Mediciana; Duarte, Paulo Schiavom; Ono, Carla Rachel; Coura-Filho, George Barberio; Sado, Heitor Naoki; Carvalho, Giovanna [Instituto do Cancer do Estado de Sao Paulo Octavio Frias de Oliveira (ICESP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Servico de Medicina Nuclear; Sapienza, Marcelo Tatit; Buchpiguel, Carlos Alberto [Universidade de Sao Paulo (FM/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Medicina. Dept. de Radiologia e Oncologia

2016-01-15

Objective: To assess the cutoff values established by ROC curves to classify {sup 18}F-NaF uptake as normal or malignant. Materials and Methods: PET/CT images were acquired 1 hour after administration of 185 MBq of {sup 18}F-NaF. Volumes of interest (VOIs) were drawn on three regions of the skeleton as follows: proximal right humerus diaphysis (HD), proximal right femoral diaphysis (FD) and first vertebral body (VB1), in a total of 254 patients, totalling 762 VOIs. The uptake in the VOIs was classified as normal or malignant on the basis of the radiopharmaceutical distribution pattern and of the CT images. A total of 675 volumes were classified as normal and 52 were classified as malignant. Thirty-five VOIs classified as indeterminate or nonmalignant lesions were excluded from analysis. The standardized uptake value (SUV) measured on the VOIs were plotted on an ROC curve for each one of the three regions. The area under the ROC (AUC) as well as the best cutoff SUVs to classify the VOIs were calculated. The best cutoff values were established as the ones with higher result of the sum of sensitivity and specificity. Results: The AUCs were 0.933, 0.889 and 0.975 for UD, FD and VB1, respectively. The best SUV cutoffs were 9.0 (sensitivity: 73%; specificity: 99%), 8.4 (sensitivity: 79%; specificity: 94%) and 21.0 (sensitivity: 93%; specificity: 95%) for UD, FD and VB1, respectively. Conclusion: The best cutoff value varies according to bone region of analysis and it is not possible to establish one value for the whole body. (author)

Reader characteristics linked to detection of pulmonary nodules on radiographs: ROC vs. JAFROC analyses of performance

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Kohli, Akshay; Robinson, John W.; Ryan, John; McEntee, Mark F.; Brennan, Patrick C.

2011-03-01

The purpose of this study is to explore whether reader characteristics are linked to heightened levels of diagnostic performance in chest radiology using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and jackknife free response ROC (JAFROC) methodologies. A set of 40 postero-anterior chest radiographs was developed, of which 20 were abnormal containing one or more simulated nodules, of varying subtlety. Images were independently reviewed by 12 boardcertified radiologists including six chest specialists. The observer performance was measured in terms of ROC and JAFROC scores. For the ROC analysis, readers were asked to rate their degree of suspicion for the presence of nodules by using a confidence rating scale (1-6). JAFROC analysis required the readers to locate and rate as many suspicious areas as they wished using the same scale and resultant data were used to generate Az and FOM scores for ROC and JAFROC analyses respectively. Using Pearson methods, scores of performance were correlated with 7 reader characteristics recorded using a questionnaire. JAFROC analysis showed that improved reader performance was significantly (pchest specialty (pchest radiographs (pchest readings per year (pchest radiographs (pchest specialty, hours reading per week and number of radiographs read per year. Also, JAFROC is a more powerful predictor of performance as compared to ROC.

ROC generated thresholds for field-assessed aerobic fitness related to body size and cardiometabolic risk in schoolchildren.

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Lynne M Boddy

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: 1. to investigate whether 20 m multi-stage shuttle run performance (20mSRT, an indirect measure of aerobic fitness, could discriminate between healthy and overweight status in 9-10.9 yr old schoolchildren using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis; 2. Investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by aerobic fitness group by applying the ROC cut point to a second, cross-sectional cohort. DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional data. PARTICIPANTS: 16,619 9-10.9 year old participants from SportsLinx project and 300 11-13.9 year old participants from the Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study. OUTCOME MEASURES: SportsLinx; 20mSRT, body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, subscapular and superilliac skinfold thicknesses. Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study; 20mSRT performance, waist circumference, and clustered cardiometabolic risk. ANALYSES: Three ROC curve analyses were completed, each using 20mSRT performance with ROC curve 1 related to BMI, curve 2 was related to waist circumference and 3 was related to skinfolds (estimated % body fat. These were repeated for both girls and boys. The mean of the three aerobic fitness thresholds was retained for analysis. The thresholds were subsequently applied to clustered cardiometabolic risk data from the Welsh Schools study to assess whether risk differed by aerobic fitness group. RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of the ROC generated thresholds was higher than would be expected by chance (all models AUC >0.7. The mean thresholds were 33 and 25 shuttles for boys and girls respectively. Participants classified as 'fit' had significantly lower cardiometabolic risk scores in comparison to those classed as unfit (p<0.001. CONCLUSION: The use of the ROC generated cut points by health professionals, teachers and coaches may provide the opportunity to apply population level 'risk identification and stratification' processes and plan for "at-risk" children to be referred onto intervention

ROC analysis of diagnostic performance in liver scintigraphy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritz, S.L.; Preston, D.F.; Gallagher, J.H.

1981-01-01

Studies on the accuracy of liver scintigraphy for the detection of metastases were assembled from 38 sources in the medical literature. An ROC curve was fitted to the observed values of sensitivity and specificity using an algorithm developed by Ogilvie and Creelman. This ROC curve fitted the data better than average sensitivity and specificity values in each of four subsets of the data. For the subset dealing with Tc-99m sulfur colloid scintigraphy, performed for detection of suspected metastases and containing data on 2800 scans from 17 independent series, it was not possible to reject the hypothesis that interobserver variation was entirely due to the use of different decision thresholds by the reporting clinicians. Thus the ROC curve obtained is a reasonable baseline estimate of the performance potentially achievable in today's clinical setting. Comparison of new reports with these data is impossible, but is limited by the small sample sizes in most reported series

ROC analysis of diagnostic performance in liver scintigraphy.

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Fritz, S L; Preston, D F; Gallagher, J H

1981-02-01

Studies on the accuracy of liver scintigraphy for the detection of metastases were assembled from 38 sources in the medical literature. An ROC curve was fitted to the observed values of sensitivity and specificity using an algorithm developed by Ogilvie and Creelman. This ROC curve fitted the data better than average sensitivity and specificity values in each of four subsets of the data. For the subset dealing with Tc-99m sulfur colloid scintigraphy, performed for detection of suspected metastases and containing data on 2800 scans from 17 independent series, it was not possible to reject the hypothesis that interobserver variation was entirely due to the use of different decision thresholds by the reporting clinicians. Thus the ROC curve obtained is a reasonable baseline estimate of the performance potentially achievable in today's clinical setting. Comparison of new reports with these data is possible, but is limited by the small sample sizes in most reported series.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves: review of methods with applications in diagnostic medicine

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Obuchowski, Nancy A.; Bullen, Jennifer A.

2018-04-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a tool used to describe the discrimination accuracy of a diagnostic test or prediction model. While sensitivity and specificity are the basic metrics of accuracy, they have many limitations when characterizing test accuracy, particularly when comparing the accuracies of competing tests. In this article we review the basic study design features of ROC studies, illustrate sample size calculations, present statistical methods for measuring and comparing accuracy, and highlight commonly used ROC software. We include descriptions of multi-reader ROC study design and analysis, address frequently seen problems of verification and location bias, discuss clustered data, and provide strategies for testing endpoints in ROC studies. The methods are illustrated with a study of transmission ultrasound for diagnosing breast lesions.

Rocker: Open source, easy-to-use tool for AUC and enrichment calculations and ROC visualization.

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Lätti, Sakari; Niinivehmas, Sanna; Pentikäinen, Olli T

2016-01-01

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve with the calculation of area under curve (AUC) is a useful tool to evaluate the performance of biomedical and chemoinformatics data. For example, in virtual drug screening ROC curves are very often used to visualize the efficiency of the used application to separate active ligands from inactive molecules. Unfortunately, most of the available tools for ROC analysis are implemented into commercially available software packages, or are plugins in statistical software, which are not always the easiest to use. Here, we present Rocker, a simple ROC curve visualization tool that can be used for the generation of publication quality images. Rocker also includes an automatic calculation of the AUC for the ROC curve and Boltzmann-enhanced discrimination of ROC (BEDROC). Furthermore, in virtual screening campaigns it is often important to understand the early enrichment of active ligand identification, for this Rocker offers automated calculation routine. To enable further development of Rocker, it is freely available (MIT-GPL license) for use and modifications from our web-site (http://www.jyu.fi/rocker).

Software for illustrative presentation of basic clinical characteristics of laboratory tests--GraphROC for Windows.

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Kairisto, V; Poola, A

1995-01-01

GraphROC for Windows is a program for clinical test evaluation. It was designed for the handling of large datasets obtained from clinical laboratory databases. In the user interface, graphical and numerical presentations are combined. For simplicity, numerical data is not shown unless requested. Relevant numbers can be "picked up" from the graph by simple mouse operations. Reference distributions can be displayed by using automatically optimized bin widths. Any percentile of the distribution with corresponding confidence limits can be chosen for display. In sensitivity-specificity analysis, both illness- and health-related distributions are shown in the same graph. The following data for any cutoff limit can be shown in a separate click window: clinical sensitivity and specificity with corresponding confidence limits, positive and negative likelihood ratios, positive and negative predictive values and efficiency. Predictive values and clinical efficiency of the cutoff limit can be updated for any prior probability of disease. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves can be generated and combined into the same graph for comparison of several different tests. The area under the curve with corresponding confidence interval is calculated for each ROC curve. Numerical results of analyses and graphs can be printed or exported to other Microsoft Windows programs. GraphROC for Windows also employs a new method, developed by us, for the indirect estimation of health-related limits and change limits from mixed distributions of clinical laboratory data.

Cognitive Vulnerabilities and Depression in Young Adults: An ROC Curves Analysis.

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Balsamo, Michela; Imperatori, Claudio; Sergi, Maria Rita; Belvederi Murri, Martino; Continisio, Massimo; Tamburello, Antonino; Innamorati, Marco; Saggino, Aristide

2013-01-01

Objectives and Methods. The aim of the present study was to evaluate, by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, whether cognitive vulnerabilities (CV), as measured by three well-known instruments (the Beck Hopelessness Scale, BHS; the Life Orientation Test-Revised, LOT-R; and the Attitudes Toward Self-Revised, ATS-R), independently discriminate between subjects with different severities of depression. Participants were 467 young adults (336 females and 131 males), recruited from the general population. The subjects were also administered the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Results. Four first-order (BHS Optimism/Low Standard; BHS Pessimism; Generalized Self-Criticism; and LOT Optimism) and two higher-order factors (Pessimism/Negative Attitudes Toward Self, Optimism) were extracted using Principal Axis Factoring analysis. Although all first-order and second-order factors were able to discriminate individuals with different depression severities, the Pessimism factor had the best performance in discriminating individuals with moderate to severe depression from those with lower depression severity. Conclusion. In the screening of young adults at risk of depression, clinicians have to pay particular attention to the expression of pessimism about the future.

Quantitative evaluation of visual detection performance in medicine: ROC analysis and determination of diagnostic benefit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.E.; Starr, S.J.; Lusted, L.B.

1976-01-01

An ROC curve provides an empirical description of the trade-offs which are possible among the various types of correct and incorrect decisions as the human decision-maker varies one or more confidence thresholds. Conventional ROC curves measured in simple decision-making situations can, in some cases, be used to predict human decision performance in more complex situations. By considering both the consequences of the various types of diagnostic decisions and the overhead cost of a diagnostic study, one can use the ROC curve to evaluate the diagnostic usefulness of a study in any particular clinical context. Since the ROC curve describes the possible relationships among the probabilities of the various types of correct and incorrect decisions, it plays a central role in optimizing diagnostic strategies using the general techniques of decision analysis. Applications in radiographic image evaluation are described

A comparison of confidence/credible interval methods for the area under the ROC curve for continuous diagnostic tests with small sample size.

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Feng, Dai; Cortese, Giuliana; Baumgartner, Richard

2017-12-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.

The role of stenosis ratio as a predictor of surgical satisfaction in patients with lumbar spinal canal stenosis: a receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

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Mohammadi, Hassanreza R; Azimi, Parisa; Benzel, Edward C; Shahzadi, Sohrab; Azhari, Shirzad

2016-09-01

The aim of this study was to elucidate independent factors that predict surgical satisfaction in lumbar spinal canal stenosis (LSCS) patients. Patients who underwent surgery were grouped based on the age, gender, duration of symptoms, walking distance, Neurogenic Claudication Outcome Score (NCOS) and the stenosis ratio (SR) described by Lurencin. We recorded on 2-year patient satisfaction using standardized measure. The optimal cut-off points in SR, NCOS and walking distance for predicting surgical satisfaction were estimated from sensitivity and specificity calculations and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. One hundred fifty consecutive patients (51 male, 99 female, mean age 62.4±10.9 years) were followed up for 34±13 months (range 24-49). One, two, three and four level stenosis was observed in 10.7%, 39.3%, 36.0 % and 14.0% of patients, respectively. Post-surgical satisfaction was 78.5% at the 2 years follow up. In ROC curve analysis, the asymptotic significance is less than 0.05 in SR and the optimal cut-off value of SR to predict worsening surgical satisfaction was measured as more than 0.52, with 85.4% sensitivity and 77.4% specificity (AUC 0.798, 95% CI 0.73-0.90; Ppatients with degenerative lumbar stenosis considered for surgical treatment. Using a ROC curve analysis, a radiological feature, the SR, demonstrated superiority in predicting patient satisfaction, compared to functional and clinical characteristics such as walking distance and NCOS.

Additional diagnostic value of 99Tcm-MIBI imaging over 'cold' nodules in 99Tcm thyroid imaging proved by ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mei Ping; Qin Yongde; Wang Saigang; Ruxianguli; Baya; Lv Jie; Xie Bing; Sun Xiaoyan

2007-01-01

Objective: More studies have found that 99 Tc m -MIBI thyroid imaging may provide more differential diagnostic value than traditional 99 Tc m O 4 - thyroid imaging. This study attempted to analyze the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to verify the additional diagnostic value of 99 Tc m -MIBI over 99 Tc m O 4 - thyroid imaging in the differentiation of the 'cold' nodules. Methods: Sixty-eight patients initially diagnosed with 'cold' nodules in 99 Tc m O 4 - thyroid scintigraphy were selected for further 99 Tc m -MIBI thyroid imaging at early (15 min after 99 Tc m -MIBI intravenous injection, ER) and delayed phase (2 h after injection, DR). Semi-quantitative analysis was performed using tumor/normal tissue (T/N) ratio both at ER and DR, with 0.8 defined as the threshold for differential diagnoses. In ROC curves analyses, the ratios from tumor/submaxillary gland (T/S) and tumor/heart (T/H) were derived to obtain the most proper differential diagnostic thresholds. Results: Of all patients with the 'cold' nodules, only eight cases were finally diagnosed on pathology with thyroid malignancy, while other 60 were benign. For differential diagnoses, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of semi-quantitative 99 Tc m -MIBI thyroid imaging were 100.0%, 76.7% and 79.4% respectively. However, with thresholds of T/N=0.995, T/S=0.995, T/H=1.005 derived from ROC curves for DR 99 Tc m -MIBI imaging, the differential diagnostic sensitivities were 100.0%, 87.5%, 75.0% and the specificities were 90.0%, 85.0%, 83.3% respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.949, 0.876 and 0. 867 respectively for DR, all significantly larger than those of ER. Statistical difference was also evident between threshold values of 0.8 and 0.995 (χ 2 =6.125, P 99 Tc m -MIBI thyroid imaging provide additional diagnostic value over 99 Tc m O 4 - thyroid imaging for the differentiation of the 'cold' nodules. For 99 Tc m -MIBI thyroid imaging, DR is more valuable than ER in the ROC

An ROC-type measure of diagnostic accuracy when the gold standard is continuous-scale.

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Obuchowski, Nancy A

2006-02-15

ROC curves and summary measures of accuracy derived from them, such as the area under the ROC curve, have become the standard for describing and comparing the accuracy of diagnostic tests. Methods for estimating ROC curves rely on the existence of a gold standard which dichotomizes patients into disease present or absent. There are, however, many examples of diagnostic tests whose gold standards are not binary-scale, but rather continuous-scale. Unnatural dichotomization of these gold standards leads to bias and inconsistency in estimates of diagnostic accuracy. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric estimator of diagnostic test accuracy which does not require dichotomization of the gold standard. This estimator has an interpretation analogous to the area under the ROC curve. We propose a confidence interval for test accuracy and a statistical test for comparing accuracies of tests from paired designs. We compare the performance (i.e. CI coverage, type I error rate, power) of the proposed methods with several alternatives. An example is presented where the accuracies of two quick blood tests for measuring serum iron concentrations are estimated and compared.

Joint confidence region estimation for area under ROC curve and Youden index.

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Yin, Jingjing; Tian, Lili

2014-03-15

In the field of diagnostic studies, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) serves as an overall measure of a biomarker/diagnostic test's accuracy. Youden index, defined as the overall correct classification rate minus one at the optimal cut-off point, is another popular index. For continuous biomarkers of binary disease status, although researchers mainly evaluate the diagnostic accuracy using AUC, for the purpose of making diagnosis, Youden index provides an important and direct measure of the diagnostic accuracy at the optimal threshold and hence should be taken into consideration in addition to AUC. Furthermore, AUC and Youden index are generally correlated. In this paper, we initiate the idea of evaluating diagnostic accuracy based on AUC and Youden index simultaneously. As the first step toward this direction, this paper only focuses on the confidence region estimation of AUC and Youden index for a single marker. We present both parametric and non-parametric approaches for estimating joint confidence region of AUC and Youden index. We carry out extensive simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. In the end, we apply the proposed methods to a real data set. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Overestimation of test performance by ROC analysis: Effect of small sample size

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seeley, G.W.; Borgstrom, M.C.; Patton, D.D.; Myers, K.J.; Barrett, H.H.

1984-01-01

New imaging systems are often observer-rated by ROC techniques. For practical reasons the number of different images, or sample size (SS), is kept small. Any systematic bias due to small SS would bias system evaluation. The authors set about to determine whether the area under the ROC curve (AUC) would be systematically biased by small SS. Monte Carlo techniques were used to simulate observer performance in distinguishing signal (SN) from noise (N) on a 6-point scale; P(SN) = P(N) = .5. Four sample sizes (15, 25, 50 and 100 each of SN and N), three ROC slopes (0.8, 1.0 and 1.25), and three intercepts (0.8, 1.0 and 1.25) were considered. In each of the 36 combinations of SS, slope and intercept, 2000 runs were simulated. Results showed a systematic bias: the observed AUC exceeded the expected AUC in every one of the 36 combinations for all sample sizes, with the smallest sample sizes having the largest bias. This suggests that evaluations of imaging systems using ROC curves based on small sample size systematically overestimate system performance. The effect is consistent but subtle (maximum 10% of AUC standard deviation), and is probably masked by the s.d. in most practical settings. Although there is a statistically significant effect (F = 33.34, P<0.0001) due to sample size, none was found for either the ROC curve slope or intercept. Overestimation of test performance by small SS seems to be an inherent characteristic of the ROC technique that has not previously been described

ROC analysis in gammagraphic diagnosis of hepatic cirrhosis

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Hdez-Armas, J.; Allende, A.; Alarco, R.; Panero, J.; Oton, C.

1982-01-01

An application of the ROC statistical method is described on a sample of 161 patients who underwent hepatic gammagraphy and biopsies obtained by laparsocopy, and of whom 90 were found to have hepatic cirrhosis according to pathological anatomy. Five decision thresholds have been established in the elaboration of the gammagraphic diagnosis of cirrhosis. The true positive fraction (TPF) and false positive fraction (FPF) of these five thresholds are shown on an ordinate axis and an ROC curve is obtained. By means of a simplified cost-benefit analysis the optimal point of operation for this type of diagnosis is determined on this curve, according to which the diagnosis of cirrhosis should be considered positive when alterations in the size of the liver and distribution of the isotope in the liver are found simultaneously with splenomegaly. (orig.)

Theoretical vs. empirical discriminability: the application of ROC methods to eyewitness identification.

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Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura

2018-01-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was introduced to the field of eyewitness identification 5 years ago. Since that time, it has been both influential and controversial, and the debate has raised an issue about measuring discriminability that is rarely considered. The issue concerns the distinction between empirical discriminability (measured by area under the ROC curve) vs. underlying/theoretical discriminability (measured by d' or variants of it). Under most circumstances, the two measures will agree about a difference between two conditions in terms of discriminability. However, it is possible for them to disagree, and that fact can lead to confusion about which condition actually yields higher discriminability. For example, if the two conditions have implications for real-world practice (e.g., a comparison of competing lineup formats), should a policymaker rely on the area-under-the-curve measure or the theory-based measure? Here, we illustrate the fact that a given empirical ROC yields as many underlying discriminability measures as there are theories that one is willing to take seriously. No matter which theory is correct, for practical purposes, the singular area-under-the-curve measure best identifies the diagnostically superior procedure. For that reason, area under the ROC curve informs policy in a way that underlying theoretical discriminability never can. At the same time, theoretical measures of discriminability are equally important, but for a different reason. Without an adequate theoretical understanding of the relevant task, the field will be in no position to enhance empirical discriminability.

Large-field image intensifiers versus conventional chest radiography: ROC study with simulated interstitial disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winter, L.H.L.; Chakraborty, D.P.; Waes, P.F.G.M.

1988-01-01

Two image intensifier tubes have recently been introduced whose large imaging area makes them suitable for chest imaging (Phillips Pulmodiagnost TLX slit II and Siemens TX 57 large entrance field II). Both modalities present a 10 x 10-cm hard copy image to the radiologist. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve study with simulated interstitial disease was performed to compare the image quality of these image intensifiers with conventional chest images. The relative ranking in terms of decreasing ROC areas was Siemens, conventional, and Philips. Compared with conventional imaging, none of the differences in ROC curve area were statistically significant at the 5% level

Analyzing ROC curves using the effective set-size model

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Samuelson, Frank W.; Abbey, Craig K.; He, Xin

2018-03-01

The Effective Set-Size model has been used to describe uncertainty in various signal detection experiments. The model regards images as if they were an effective number (M*) of searchable locations, where the observer treats each location as a location-known-exactly detection task with signals having average detectability d'. The model assumes a rational observer behaves as if he searches an effective number of independent locations and follows signal detection theory at each location. Thus the location-known-exactly detectability (d') and the effective number of independent locations M* fully characterize search performance. In this model the image rating in a single-response task is assumed to be the maximum response that the observer would assign to these many locations. The model has been used by a number of other researchers, and is well corroborated. We examine this model as a way of differentiating imaging tasks that radiologists perform. Tasks involving more searching or location uncertainty may have higher estimated M* values. In this work we applied the Effective Set-Size model to a number of medical imaging data sets. The data sets include radiologists reading screening and diagnostic mammography with and without computer-aided diagnosis (CAD), and breast tomosynthesis. We developed an algorithm to fit the model parameters using two-sample maximum-likelihood ordinal regression, similar to the classic bi-normal model. The resulting model ROC curves are rational and fit the observed data well. We find that the distributions of M* and d' differ significantly among these data sets, and differ between pairs of imaging systems within studies. For example, on average tomosynthesis increased readers' d' values, while CAD reduced the M* parameters. We demonstrate that the model parameters M* and d' are correlated. We conclude that the Effective Set-Size model may be a useful way of differentiating location uncertainty from the diagnostic uncertainty in medical

ROC-king onwards: intraepithelial lymphocyte counts, distribution & role in coeliac disease mucosal interpretation.

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Rostami, Kamran; Marsh, Michael N; Johnson, Matt W; Mohaghegh, Hamid; Heal, Calvin; Holmes, Geoffrey; Ensari, Arzu; Aldulaimi, David; Bancel, Brigitte; Bassotti, Gabrio; Bateman, Adrian; Becheanu, Gabriel; Bozzola, Anna; Carroccio, Antonio; Catassi, Carlo; Ciacci, Carolina; Ciobanu, Alexandra; Danciu, Mihai; Derakhshan, Mohammad H; Elli, Luca; Ferrero, Stefano; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Fiorino, Marilena; Ganji, Azita; Ghaffarzadehgan, Kamran; Going, James J; Ishaq, Sauid; Mandolesi, Alessandra; Mathews, Sherly; Maxim, Roxana; Mulder, Chris J; Neefjes-Borst, Andra; Robert, Marie; Russo, Ilaria; Rostami-Nejad, Mohammad; Sidoni, Angelo; Sotoudeh, Masoud; Villanacci, Vincenzo; Volta, Umberto; Zali, Mohammad R; Srivastava, Amitabh

2017-12-01

Counting intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL) is central to the histological diagnosis of coeliac disease (CD), but no definitive 'normal' IEL range has ever been published. In this multicentre study, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off between normal and CD (Marsh III lesion) duodenal mucosa, based on IEL counts on >400 mucosal biopsy specimens. The study was designed at the International Meeting on Digestive Pathology, Bucharest 2015. Investigators from 19 centres, eight countries of three continents, recruited 198 patients with Marsh III histology and 203 controls and used one agreed protocol to count IEL/100 enterocytes in well-oriented duodenal biopsies. Demographic and serological data were also collected. The mean ages of CD and control groups were 45.5 (neonate to 82) and 38.3 (2-88) years. Mean IEL count was 54±18/100 enterocytes in CD and 13±8 in normal controls (p=0.0001). ROC analysis indicated an optimal cut-off point of 25 IEL/100 enterocytes, with 99% sensitivity, 92% specificity and 99.5% area under the curve. Other cut-offs between 20 and 40 IEL were less discriminatory. Additionally, there was a sufficiently high number of biopsies to explore IEL counts across the subclassification of the Marsh III lesion. Our ROC curve analyses demonstrate that for Marsh III lesions, a cut-off of 25 IEL/100 enterocytes optimises discrimination between normal control and CD biopsies. No differences in IEL counts were found between Marsh III a, b and c lesions. There was an indication of a continuously graded dose-response by IEL to environmental (gluten) antigenic influence. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A comparison of ROC inferred from FROC and conventional ROC

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McEntee, Mark F.; Littlefair, Stephen; Pietrzyk, Mariusz W.

2014-03-01

This study aims to determine whether receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores inferred from free-response receiver operating characteristic (FROC) were equivalent to conventional ROC scores for the same readers and cases. Forty-five examining radiologists of the American Board of Radiology independently reviewed 47 PA chest radiographs under at least two conditions. Thirty-seven cases had abnormal findings and 10 cases had normal findings. Half the readers were asked to first locate any visualized lung nodules, mark them and assign a level of confidence [the FROC mark-rating pair] and second give an overall to the entire image on the same scale [the ROC score]. The second half of readers gave the ROC rating first followed by the FROC mark-rating pairs. A normal image was represented with number 1 and malignant lesions with numbers 2-5. A jackknife free-response receiver operating characteristic (JAFROC), and inferred ROC (infROC) was calculated from the mark-rating pairs using JAFROC V4.1 software. ROC based on the overall rating of the image calculated using DBM MRMC software, which was also used to compare infROC and ROC AUCs treating the methods as modalities. Pearson's correlations coefficient and linear regression were used to examine their relationship using SPSS, version 21.0; (SPSS, Chicago, IL). The results of this study showed no significant difference between the ROC and Inferred ROC AUCs (p≤0.25). While Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.7 (p≤0.01). Inter-reader correlation calculated from Obuchowski- Rockette covariance's ranged from 0.43-0.86 while intra-reader agreement was greater than previously reported ranging from 0.68-0.82.

Part 5: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and Area under the Curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saeed Safari

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Multiple diagnostic tools are used by emergency physicians,every day. In addition, new tools are evaluated to obtainmore accurate methods and reduce time or cost of conventionalones. In the previous parts of this educationalseries, we described diagnostic performance characteristicsof diagnostic tests including sensitivity, specificity, positiveand negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios. Thereceiver operating characteristics (ROC curve is a graphicalpresentation of screening characteristics. ROC curve is usedto determine the best cutoff point and compare two or moretests or observers by measuring the area under the curve(AUC. In this part of our educational series, we explain ROCcurve and two methods to determine the best cutoff value.

Assessment of diagnostic value of various tumors markers (CEA, CA199, CA50) for colorectal neoplasm with logistic regression and ROC curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu Ping; Huang Gang; Han Yuan

2007-01-01

Objective: To assess the diagnostic value of CEA, CA199 and CA50 for colorectal neoplasm by logistic regression and ROC curve. Methods: Serum CEA (with CLIA), CA199 (with ECLIA) and CA50 (with IRMA) levels were measured in 75 patients with colorectal cancer, 35 patients with benign colorectal disorders and 49 controls. The area under the ROC curve (AUC)s of CEA, CA199, CA50 from logistic regression results were compared. Results: In the cancer-benign disorder group, the AUC of CA50 was larger than the AUC of CA199. AUC of combined CEA, CA50 was largest: not only larger than any AUC of CEA, CA50, CA199 alone but also larger than the AUC of the combined three markers (0.875 vs 0.604). In cancer-control group, the AUC of combination of CEA, CA199 and CA50 was larger than any AUC of CEA, CA199 or CA50 alone. Both in the cancer-benign disorder group or cancer-control group, the AUC of CEA was larger than the AUC of CA199 or CA50. Conclusion: CEA is of definite value in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer. For differential diagnosis, the combination of CEA and CA50 can give more information, while the combination of three tumor markers is less helpful. As an advanced statistical method, logistic regression can improve the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. (authors)

On the analysis of glycomics mass spectrometry data via the regularized area under the ROC curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lebrilla Carlito B

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Novel molecular and statistical methods are in rising demand for disease diagnosis and prognosis with the help of recent advanced biotechnology. High-resolution mass spectrometry (MS is one of those biotechnologies that are highly promising to improve health outcome. Previous literatures have identified some proteomics biomarkers that can distinguish healthy patients from cancer patients using MS data. In this paper, an MS study is demonstrated which uses glycomics to identify ovarian cancer. Glycomics is the study of glycans and glycoproteins. The glycans on the proteins may deviate between a cancer cell and a normal cell and may be visible in the blood. High-resolution MS has been applied to measure relative abundances of potential glycan biomarkers in human serum. Multiple potential glycan biomarkers are measured in MS spectra. With the objection of maximizing the empirical area under the ROC curve (AUC, an analysis method was considered which combines potential glycan biomarkers for the diagnosis of cancer. Results Maximizing the empirical AUC of glycomics MS data is a large-dimensional optimization problem. The technical difficulty is that the empirical AUC function is not continuous. Instead, it is in fact an empirical 0–1 loss function with a large number of linear predictors. An approach was investigated that regularizes the area under the ROC curve while replacing the 0–1 loss function with a smooth surrogate function. The constrained threshold gradient descent regularization algorithm was applied, where the regularization parameters were chosen by the cross-validation method, and the confidence intervals of the regression parameters were estimated by the bootstrap method. The method is called TGDR-AUC algorithm. The properties of the approach were studied through a numerical simulation study, which incorporates the positive values of mass spectrometry data with the correlations between measurements within person

A transfer of technology from engineering: use of ROC curves from signal detection theory to investigate information processing in the brain during sensory difference testing.

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Wichchukit, Sukanya; O'Mahony, Michael

2010-01-01

This article reviews a beneficial effect of technology transfer from Electrical Engineering to Food Sensory Science. Specifically, it reviews the recent adoption in Food Sensory Science of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a tool that is incorporated in the theory of signal detection. Its use allows the information processing that takes place in the brain during sensory difference testing to be studied and understood. The review deals with how Signal Detection Theory, also called Thurstonian modeling, led to the adoption of a more sophisticated way of analyzing the data from sensory difference tests, by introducing the signal-to-noise ratio, d', as a fundamental measure of perceived small sensory differences. Generally, the method of computation of d' is a simple matter for some of the better known difference tests like the triangle, duo-trio and 2-AFC. However, there are occasions when these tests are not appropriate and other tests like the same-different and the A Not-A test are more suitable. Yet, for these, it is necessary to understand how the brain processes information during the test before d' can be computed. It is for this task that the ROC curve has a particular use. © 2010 Institute of Food Technologists®

Assessment of diagnostic value of tumor markers for colorectal neoplasm by logistic regression and ROC curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ping, G.

2007-01-01

Full text: Objective: To assess the diagnostic value of CEA CA199 and CA50 for colorectal neoplasm by logistic regression and ROC curve. Methods: The subjects include 75 patients of colorectal cancer, 35 patients of benign intestinal disease and 49 health controls. CEA CA199 and CA50 are measured by CLIA ECLIA and IRMA respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of CEA CA 199 CA50 and logistic regression results are compared. [Result] In the cancer-benign group, the AUC of CA50 is larger than the AUC of CA199 Compared with the AUC of combination of CEA CA199 and CA50 (0.604),the AUC of combination of CEA and CA50 (0.875) is larger and it is also larger than any other AUC of CEA CA199 or CA50 alone. In the cancerhealth group, the AUC of combination of CEA CA199 and CA50 is larger than any other AUC of CEA CA199 or CA50 alone. No matter in the cancer-benign group or cancerhealth group. The AUC of CEA is larger than the AUC of CA199 or CA50. Conclusion: CEA is useful in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer. In the process of differential diagnosis, the combination of CEA and CA50 can give more information, while the combination of three tumor markers does not perform well. Furthermore, as a statistical method, logistic regression can improve the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. (author)

Spatial resolution requirements in digital radiography of scaphoid fractures. An ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonsson, A.; Laurin, S.; Karner, G.; Herrlin, K.; Hochbergs, P.; Jonsson, K.; Rudling, O.; Sandstroem, S.; Sloth, M.; Svahn, G.; Pettersson, H.

1996-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the spatial resolution requirements in digital radiography of scaphoid fractures. Material and Methods: Included in the study were 60 scaphoid radiographs with and 60 without fractures of the scaphoid bone. The film-screen images were digitized using pixel sizes of 115, 170, and 340 μm along with 170 μm with a 10:1 wavelet compression. The digital images were displayed on a 1280 x 1024 x 8 bits monitor, and 5 observers evaluated the images in 5 randomized sessions. The results for each pixel size were then compared to the film-screen images by ROC analysis. Results: The mean area under the ROC curves was larger for the film-screen images than for the digital images at all resolutions. However, this difference was not significant when the areas under the ROC curves for the film-screen images were compared to the digital images of 115, 170, and 170 μm with 10:1 compression. There was a significant difference for the 340-μm pixel size in favour of the film-screen images. The mean ROC curves for the digital images were very similar for the 115 and 170 μm pixel sizes, although slightly better for 115 μm. At 170 μm, the compression seemed to have a relatively small negative effect on the diagnostic performance; the deterioration was greater when the pixel size was increased to 340 μm. There was no obvious correlation between diagnostic performance and the experience of the observers in using workstations. Conclusions: The pixel size of 170 μm is adequate for the detection of subtle fractures, even after wavelet compression by a ratio of 10:1. (orig.)

ROC analysis of acid demineralized artificial caries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Byung Cheol

1997-01-01

This study is designed to determine the artificial incipient proximal caries lesion detectability by dentists on Ektaspeed Plus film using ROC analysis. Sixteen premolars and 30 molars, which have 52 proximal caries-like demineralized lesions using acid-gel technique were added to 20 sound premolars and 30 sound molars to make 24 plaster blocks. Each block with 4 teeth and 6 contacting proximal surfaces was placed in an optical bench to take 12 bitewing radiographs with Ektaspeed Plus film. Thirty-six dentists acted as observers to evaluated the proximal lesions using five rating scales for ROC analysis. They were also asked to determine the presence or absence of the proximal caries. The true status of the proximal caries was established by the consensus of three oral and maxillofacila radiologists. For evaluation of intra-observer agreement, 9 dentist reread the radiographs at an interval of 1 month. The Pearson correlation coefficient for the intra-observer agreement was 0.746 (good agreement). Ten observer's data set were degenerated. The mean area under ROC curve from 26 observers was 0.806 and standard deviation was 0.061. The sensitivity and the specificity of the binary response were 0.17 (SD=0.11) and 0.78 (SD=0.17) respectively. The binary response only reveal a single values of sensitivity and the specificity. The ROC analysis to assess the diagnostic accuracy in caries detection, which producing estimates of sensitivities for all specifities, yield more comprehensive measures of diagnostic performance than single values for sensitivity and specificity.

Ideal observer estimation and generalized ROC analysis for computer-aided diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, Darrin C.

2004-01-01

The research presented in this dissertation represents an innovative application of computer-aided diagnosis and signal detection theory to the specific task of early detection of breast cancer in the context of screening mammography. A number of automated schemes have been developed in our laboratory to detect masses and clustered microcalcifications in digitized mammograms, on the one hand, and to classify known lesions as malignant or benign, on the other. The development of fully automated classification schemes is difficult, because the output of a detection scheme will contain false-positive detections in addition to detected malignant and benign lesions, resulting in a three-class classification task. Researchers have so far been unable to extend successful tools for analyzing two-class classification tasks, such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, to three-class classification tasks. The goals of our research were to use Bayesian artificial neural networks to estimate ideal observer decision variables to both detect and classify clustered microcalcifications and mass lesions in mammograms, and to derive substantial theoretical results indicating potential avenues of approach toward the three-class classification task. Specifically, we have shown that an ideal observer in an N-class classification task achieves an optimal ROC hypersurface, just as the two-class ideal observer achieves an optimal ROC curve; and that an obvious generalization of a well-known two-class performance metric, the area under the ROC curve, is not useful as a performance metric in classification tasks with more than two classes. This work is significant for three reasons. First, it involves the explicit estimation of feature-based (as opposed to image-based) ideal observer decision variables in the tasks of detecting and classifying mammographic lesions. Second, it directly addresses the three-class classification task of distinguishing malignant lesions, benign

A statistical approach to evaluate the performance of cardiac biomarkers in predicting death due to acute myocardial infarction: time-dependent ROC curve

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Karaismailoğlu, Eda; Dikmen, Zeliha Günnur; Akbıyık, Filiz; Karaağaoğlu, Ahmet Ergun

2018-04-30

Background/aim: Myoglobin, cardiac troponin T, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and creatine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB) are frequently used biomarkers for evaluating risk of patients admitted to an emergency department with chest pain. Recently, time- dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has been used to evaluate the predictive power of biomarkers where disease status can change over time. We aimed to determine the best set of biomarkers that estimate cardiac death during follow-up time. We also obtained optimal cut-off values of these biomarkers, which differentiates between patients with and without risk of death. A web tool was developed to estimate time intervals in risk. Materials and methods: A total of 410 patients admitted to the emergency department with chest pain and shortness of breath were included. Cox regression analysis was used to determine an optimal set of biomarkers that can be used for estimating cardiac death and to combine the significant biomarkers. Time-dependent ROC analysis was performed for evaluating performances of significant biomarkers and a combined biomarker during 240 h. The bootstrap method was used to compare statistical significance and the Youden index was used to determine optimal cut-off values. Results : Myoglobin and BNP were significant by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Areas under the time-dependent ROC curves of myoglobin and BNP were about 0.80 during 240 h, and that of the combined biomarker (myoglobin + BNP) increased to 0.90 during the first 180 h. Conclusion: Although myoglobin is not clinically specific to a cardiac event, in our study both myoglobin and BNP were found to be statistically significant for estimating cardiac death. Using this combined biomarker may increase the power of prediction. Our web tool can be useful for evaluating the risk status of new patients and helping clinicians in making decisions.

Exploration of analysis methods for diagnostic imaging tests: problems with ROC AUC and confidence scores in CT colonography.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallett, Susan; Halligan, Steve; Collins, Gary S; Altman, Doug G

2014-01-01

Different methods of evaluating diagnostic performance when comparing diagnostic tests may lead to different results. We compared two such approaches, sensitivity and specificity with area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) for the evaluation of CT colonography for the detection of polyps, either with or without computer assisted detection. In a multireader multicase study of 10 readers and 107 cases we compared sensitivity and specificity, using radiological reporting of the presence or absence of polyps, to ROC AUC calculated from confidence scores concerning the presence of polyps. Both methods were assessed against a reference standard. Here we focus on five readers, selected to illustrate issues in design and analysis. We compared diagnostic measures within readers, showing that differences in results are due to statistical methods. Reader performance varied widely depending on whether sensitivity and specificity or ROC AUC was used. There were problems using confidence scores; in assigning scores to all cases; in use of zero scores when no polyps were identified; the bimodal non-normal distribution of scores; fitting ROC curves due to extrapolation beyond the study data; and the undue influence of a few false positive results. Variation due to use of different ROC methods exceeded differences between test results for ROC AUC. The confidence scores recorded in our study violated many assumptions of ROC AUC methods, rendering these methods inappropriate. The problems we identified will apply to other detection studies using confidence scores. We found sensitivity and specificity were a more reliable and clinically appropriate method to compare diagnostic tests.

ROC analysis of benefit and limitation in radiotherapy for cancer of the oral cavity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maciejewski, B.; Zajusz, A.

1993-01-01

The ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis of optimization of radiation treatment of cancer of oral cavity was carried out. Material of 210 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity was included into the study. Based on dose-response curves for tumor and late mucosal reactions, iso-utility curves and optimal k values were estimated. Optimal k values decreased from 0.792 to 0.584 with extension of overall treatment time from 35 to 49 days. This may suggest that the planning of additional dose to compensate tumor clonogens repopulation during prolonged treatment does not improve the therapeutic gain in radiotherapy for cancer of the oral cavity. The ROC is a useful model to estimate the optimal radiation treatment for a given tumor because it is independent of any arbitrary consensus or theoretical assumption. (author) 1 tab., 3 figs., 5 refs

[Multiple linear regression and ROC curve analysis of the factors of lumbar spine bone mineral density].

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Zhang, Xiaodong; Zhao, Yinxia; Hu, Shaoyong; Hao, Shuai; Yan, Jiewen; Zhang, Lingyan; Zhao, Jing; Li, Shaolin

2015-09-01

To investigate the correlation between the lumbar vertebra bone mineral density (BMD) and age, gender, height, weight, body mass index, waistline, hipline, bone marrow and abdomen fat, and to explore the key factor affecting the BMD. A total of 72 cases were randomly recruited. All the subjects underwent a spectroscopic examination of the third lumber vertebra with single-voxel method in 1.5T MR. Lipid fractions (FF%) were measured. Quantitative CT were also performed to get the BMD of L3 and the corresponding abdomen subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT). The statistical analysis were performed by SPSS 19.0. Multiple linear regression showed except the age and FF% showed significant difference (P0.05). The correlation of age and FF% with BMD was statistically negatively significant (r=-0.830, -0.521, P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the sensitivety and specificity of predicting osteoporosis were 81.8% and 86.9%, with a threshold of 58.5 years old. And it showed that the sensitivety and specificity of predicting osteoporosis were 90.9% and 55.7%, with a threshold of 52.8% for FF%. The lumbar vertebra BMD was significantly and negatively correlated with age and bone marrow FF%, but it was not significantly correlated with gender, height, weight, BMI, waistline, hipline, SAT and VAT. And age was the critical factor.

Separating Mnemonic Process From Participant and Item Effects in the Assessment of ROC Asymmetries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pratte, Michael S.; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.

One of the most influential findings in the study of recognition memory is that receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are asymmetric about the negative diagonal. This result has led to the rejection of the equal-variance signal detection model of recognition memory and has provided

A Primer on Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis and Diagnostic Efficiency Statistics for Pediatric Psychology: We Are Ready to ROC

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Objective To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Method Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Results Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores 30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. Conclusions This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses. PMID:23965298

Non-localization and localization ROC analyses using clinically based scoring

Science.gov (United States)

Paquerault, Sophie; Samuelson, Frank W.; Myers, Kyle J.; Smith, Robert C.

2009-02-01

We are investigating the potential for differences in study conclusions when assessing the estimated impact of a computer-aided detection (CAD) system on readers' performance. The data utilized in this investigation were derived from a multi-reader multi-case observer study involving one hundred mammographic background images to which fixed-size and fixed-intensity Gaussian signals were added, generating a low- and high-intensity signal sets. The study setting allowed CAD assessment in two situations: when CAD sensitivity was 1) superior or 2) lower than the average reader. Seven readers were asked to review each set in the unaided and CAD-aided reading modes, mark and rate their findings. Using this data, we studied the effect on study conclusion of three clinically-based receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scoring definitions. These scoring definitions included both location-specific and non-location-specific rules. The results showed agreement in the estimated impact of CAD on the overall reader performance. In the study setting where CAD sensitivity is superior to the average reader, the mean difference in AUC between the CAD-aided read and unaided read was 0.049 (95%CIs: -0.027; 0.130) for the image scoring definition that is based on non-location-specific rules, and 0.104 (95%CIs: 0.036; 0.174) and 0.090 (95%CIs: 0.031; 0.155) for image scoring definitions that are based on location-specific rules. The increases in AUC were statistically significant for the location-specific scoring definitions. It was further observed that the variance on these estimates was reduced when using the location-specific scoring definitions compared to that using a non-location-specific scoring definition. In the study setting where CAD sensitivity is equivalent or lower than the average reader, the mean differences in AUC are slightly above 0.01 for all image scoring definitions. These increases in AUC were not statistical significant for any of the image scoring definitions

Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves

Science.gov (United States)

Warrick, Jonathan A.

2015-01-01

Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

Separating Mnemonic Process from Participant and Item Effects in the Assessment of ROC Asymmetries

Science.gov (United States)

Pratte, Michael S.; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.

2010-01-01

One of the most influential findings in the study of recognition memory is that receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are asymmetric about the negative diagonal. This result has led to the rejection of the equal-variance signal detection model of recognition memory and has provided motivation for more complex models, such as the…

Corrected ROC analysis for misclassified binary outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Zawistowski, Matthew; Sussman, Jeremy B; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A; Wiitala, Wyndy L

2017-06-15

Creating accurate risk prediction models from Big Data resources such as Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is a critical step toward achieving precision medicine. A major challenge in developing these tools is accounting for imperfect aspects of EHR data, particularly the potential for misclassified outcomes. Misclassification, the swapping of case and control outcome labels, is well known to bias effect size estimates for regression prediction models. In this paper, we study the effect of misclassification on accuracy assessment for risk prediction models and find that it leads to bias in the area under the curve (AUC) metric from standard ROC analysis. The extent of the bias is determined by the false positive and false negative misclassification rates as well as disease prevalence. Notably, we show that simply correcting for misclassification while building the prediction model is not sufficient to remove the bias in AUC. We therefore introduce an intuitive misclassification-adjusted ROC procedure that accounts for uncertainty in observed outcomes and produces bias-corrected estimates of the true AUC. The method requires that misclassification rates are either known or can be estimated, quantities typically required for the modeling step. The computational simplicity of our method is a key advantage, making it ideal for efficiently comparing multiple prediction models on very large datasets. Finally, we apply the correction method to a hospitalization prediction model from a cohort of over 1 million patients from the Veterans Health Administrations EHR. Implementations of the ROC correction are provided for Stata and R. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Verification of a model for the detection of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) by receiver operating characteristics (ROC)

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Pengbo; Mongelli, Max; Mondry, Adrian

2004-07-01

The purpose of this study is to verify by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) a mathematical model supporting the hypothesis that IUGR can be diagnosed by estimating growth velocity. The ROC compare computerized simulation results with clinical data from 325 pregnant British women. Each patient had 6 consecutive ultrasound examinations for fetal abdominal circumference (fac). Customized and un-customized fetal weights were calculated according to Hadlock"s formula. IUGR was diagnosed by the clinical standard, i.e. estimated weight below the tenth percentile. Growth velocity was estimated by calculating the changes of fac (Dzfac/dt) at various time intervals from 3 to 10 weeks. Finally, ROC was used to compare the methods. At 3~4 weeks scan interval, the area under the ROC curve is 0.68 for customized data and 0.66 for the uncustomized data with 95% confidence interval. Comparison between simulation data and real pregnancies verified that the model is clinically acceptable.

An extension of the receiver operating characteristic curve and AUC-optimal classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Takenouchi, Takashi; Komori, Osamu; Eguchi, Shinto

2012-10-01

While most proposed methods for solving classification problems focus on minimization of the classification error rate, we are interested in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides more information about classification performance than the error rate does. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a natural measure for overall assessment of a classifier based on the ROC curve. We discuss a class of concave functions for AUC maximization in which a boosting-type algorithm including RankBoost is considered, and the Bayesian risk consistency and the lower bound of the optimum function are discussed. A procedure derived by maximizing a specific optimum function has high robustness, based on gross error sensitivity. Additionally, we focus on the partial AUC, which is the partial area under the ROC curve. For example, in medical screening, a high true-positive rate to the fixed lower false-positive rate is preferable and thus the partial AUC corresponding to lower false-positive rates is much more important than the remaining AUC. We extend the class of concave optimum functions for partial AUC optimality with the boosting algorithm. We investigated the validity of the proposed method through several experiments with data sets in the UCI repository.

Diagnostic accuracy of the MMPI-2 with the Mexican criminal personality: The ROC curve analysis

OpenAIRE

Ampudia Rueda, Amada; Sánchez Crespo, Guadalupe; Jiménez Gómez, Fernando 

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the personality of the Mexican criminal with the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2). The inventory was administered to 1,740 Mexican participants of which 870 (728 male and 142 female) are prison inmates, processed and/or sentenced for various crimes from various prisons in Mexico City, and the other 870 participants (728 male and 142 female) are not prison inmates. The ROC (Receiver Operating Characterist...

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

Preparation of Kepler light curves for asteroseismic analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

García, R.A.; Hekker, Saskia; Stello, Dennis

2011-01-01

The Kepler mission is providing photometric data of exquisite quality for the asteroseismic study of different classes of pulsating stars. These analyses place particular demands on the pre-processing of the data, over a range of time-scales from minutes to months. Here, we describe processing...... procedures developed by the Kepler Asteroseismic Science Consortium to prepare light curves that are optimized for the asteroseismic study of solar-like oscillating stars in which outliers, jumps and drifts are corrected....

Statistical evaluation of diagnostic performance topics in ROC analysis

CERN Document Server

Zou, Kelly H; Bandos, Andriy I; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Rockette, Howard E

2016-01-01

Statistical evaluation of diagnostic performance in general and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis in particular are important for assessing the performance of medical tests and statistical classifiers, as well as for evaluating predictive models or algorithms. This book presents innovative approaches in ROC analysis, which are relevant to a wide variety of applications, including medical imaging, cancer research, epidemiology, and bioinformatics. Statistical Evaluation of Diagnostic Performance: Topics in ROC Analysis covers areas including monotone-transformation techniques in parametric ROC analysis, ROC methods for combined and pooled biomarkers, Bayesian hierarchical transformation models, sequential designs and inferences in the ROC setting, predictive modeling, multireader ROC analysis, and free-response ROC (FROC) methodology. The book is suitable for graduate-level students and researchers in statistics, biostatistics, epidemiology, public health, biomedical engineering, radiology, medi...

Multi-probe-based resonance-frequency electrical impedance spectroscopy for detection of suspicious breast lesions: improving performance using partial ROC optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Lederman, Dror; Zheng, Bin; Wang, Xingwei; Wang, Xiao Hui; Gur, David

2011-03-01

We have developed a multi-probe resonance-frequency electrical impedance spectroscope (REIS) system to detect breast abnormalities. Based on assessing asymmetry in REIS signals acquired between left and right breasts, we developed several machine learning classifiers to classify younger women (i.e., under 50YO) into two groups of having high and low risk for developing breast cancer. In this study, we investigated a new method to optimize performance based on the area under a selected partial receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve when optimizing an artificial neural network (ANN), and tested whether it could improve classification performance. From an ongoing prospective study, we selected a dataset of 174 cases for whom we have both REIS signals and diagnostic status verification. The dataset includes 66 "positive" cases recommended for biopsy due to detection of highly suspicious breast lesions and 108 "negative" cases determined by imaging based examinations. A set of REIS-based feature differences, extracted from the two breasts using a mirror-matched approach, was computed and constituted an initial feature pool. Using a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method, we applied a genetic algorithm (GA) to train the ANN with an optimal subset of features. Two optimization criteria were separately used in GA optimization, namely the area under the entire ROC curve (AUC) and the partial area under the ROC curve, up to a predetermined threshold (i.e., 90% specificity). The results showed that although the ANN optimized using the entire AUC yielded higher overall performance (AUC = 0.83 versus 0.76), the ANN optimized using the partial ROC area criterion achieved substantially higher operational performance (i.e., increasing sensitivity level from 28% to 48% at 95% specificity and/ or from 48% to 58% at 90% specificity).

Accrual of ROCs LECs and REGOs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

This report summarises the findings of a project to identify the technical and administrative difficulties experienced by microgenerators in accessing the benefits of Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs), Levy Exemption Certificates (LECs) and Renewable Electricity Guarantees of Origin (REGO). These include cost, administrative complexity and financial risk. Changes allowing bulk processing, meter data provision, sell and buyback contracts, and alignment of ROCs, LECs and REGOs are discussed as well as making the schemes more customer friendly. The background to the project is traced, and an overview of the processes associated with gaining ROCs, LECs and REGOs is presented.

Precision-Recall-Gain Curves:PR Analysis Done Right

OpenAIRE

Flach, Peter; Kull, Meelis

2015-01-01

Precision-Recall analysis abounds in applications of binary classification where true negatives do not add value and hence should not affect assessment of the classifier's performance. Perhaps inspired by the many advantages of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under such curves for accuracy-based performance assessment, many researchers have taken to report Precision-Recall (PR) curves and associated areas as performance metric. We demonstrate in this paper that thi...

A proposal of the diagnosis-dynamic characteristic (DDC) model describing the relation between search time and confidence levels for a dichotomous judgment, and its application to ROC curve generation

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Toru; Fukuda, Nobuo; Furukawa, Akira; Suwa, Koji; Wada, Shinichi; Matsumoto, Mitsuomi; Sone, Shusuke

2006-03-01

When physicians inspect an image, they make up a certain degree of confidence that the image are abnormal; p(t), or normal; n(t)[n(t)=1-p(t)]. After infinite time of the inspection, they reach the equilibrium levels of the confidence of p*=p(∞) and n*=n(∞). There are psychological conflicts between the decisions of normal and abnormal. We assume that the decision of "normal" is distracted by the decision of "abnormal" by a factor of k(1 + ap), and in an inverse direction by a factor of k(1 + bn), where k ( > 0) is a parameter that relates with image quality and skill of the physicians, and a and b are unknown constants. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies the equation, k(1 + ap*)n* = k(1 + bn*)p*. Here we define a parameter C, which is 2p*/[p*(1 - p*)]. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies t that changes in the confidence level with the time (dp/dt) is proportional to [k(1+ap)n - k(1+bn)p], i.e. k[-cp2 + (c - 2)p + 1]. Solving the differential equation, we derived the equation; t(p) and p(t) depending with the parameters; k, c, S. S (0-1) is the value arbitrary selected and related with probability of "abnormal" before the image inspection (S = p(0)). Image reading studies were executed for CT images. ROC curves were generated both by the traditional 4-step score-based method and by the confidence level; p estimated from the equation t(p) of the DDC model using observed judgment time. It was concluded that ROC curves could be generated by measuring time for dichotomous judgment without the subjective scores of diagnostic confidence and applying the DDC model.

The ROC Toolbox: A toolbox for analyzing receiver-operating characteristics derived from confidence ratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Koen, Joshua D; Barrett, Frederick S; Harlow, Iain M; Yonelinas, Andrew P

2017-08-01

Signal-detection theory, and the analysis of receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs), has played a critical role in the development of theories of episodic memory and perception. The purpose of the current paper is to present the ROC Toolbox. This toolbox is a set of functions written in the Matlab programming language that can be used to fit various common signal detection models to ROC data obtained from confidence rating experiments. The goals for developing the ROC Toolbox were to create a tool (1) that is easy to use and easy for researchers to implement with their own data, (2) that can flexibly define models based on varying study parameters, such as the number of response options (e.g., confidence ratings) and experimental conditions, and (3) that provides optimal routines (e.g., Maximum Likelihood estimation) to obtain parameter estimates and numerous goodness-of-fit measures.The ROC toolbox allows for various different confidence scales and currently includes the models commonly used in recognition memory and perception: (1) the unequal variance signal detection (UVSD) model, (2) the dual process signal detection (DPSD) model, and (3) the mixture signal detection (MSD) model. For each model fit to a given data set the ROC toolbox plots summary information about the best fitting model parameters and various goodness-of-fit measures. Here, we present an overview of the ROC Toolbox, illustrate how it can be used to input and analyse real data, and finish with a brief discussion on features that can be added to the toolbox.

Optimal Threshold Determination for Discriminating Driving Anger Intensity Based on EEG Wavelet Features and ROC Curve Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Wan

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Driving anger, called “road rage”, has become increasingly common nowadays, affecting road safety. A few researches focused on how to identify driving anger, however, there is still a gap in driving anger grading, especially in real traffic environment, which is beneficial to take corresponding intervening measures according to different anger intensity. This study proposes a method for discriminating driving anger states with different intensity based on Electroencephalogram (EEG spectral features. First, thirty drivers were recruited to conduct on-road experiments on a busy route in Wuhan, China where anger could be inducted by various road events, e.g., vehicles weaving/cutting in line, jaywalking/cyclist crossing, traffic congestion and waiting red light if they want to complete the experiments ahead of basic time for extra paid. Subsequently, significance analysis was used to select relative energy spectrum of β band (β% and relative energy spectrum of θ band (θ% for discriminating the different driving anger states. Finally, according to receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis, the optimal thresholds (best cut-off points of β% and θ% for identifying none anger state (i.e., neutral were determined to be 0.2183 ≤ θ% < 1, 0 < β% < 0.2586; low anger state is 0.1539 ≤ θ% < 0.2183, 0.2586 ≤ β% < 0.3269; moderate anger state is 0.1216 ≤ θ% < 0.1539, 0.3269 ≤ β% < 0.3674; high anger state is 0 < θ% < 0.1216, 0.3674 ≤ β% < 1. Moreover, the discrimination performances of verification indicate that, the overall accuracy (Acc of the optimal thresholds of β% for discriminating the four driving anger states is 80.21%, while 75.20% for that of θ%. The results can provide theoretical foundation for developing driving anger detection or warning devices based on the relevant optimal thresholds.

Learning curve for laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication for achalasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yano, Fumiaki; Omura, Nobuo; Tsuboi, Kazuto; Hoshino, Masato; Yamamoto, Seryung; Akimoto, Shunsuke; Masuda, Takahiro; Kashiwagi, Hideyuki; Yanaga, Katsuhiko

2017-01-01

Although laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication (LHD) is widely performed to address achalasia, little is known about the learning curve for this technique. We assessed the learning curve for performing LHD. Of the 514 cases with LHD performed between August 1994 and March 2016, the surgical outcomes of 463 cases were evaluated after excluding 50 cases with reduced port surgery and one case with the simultaneous performance of laparoscopic distal partial gastrectomy. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the cut-off value for the number of surgical experiences necessary to become proficient with LHD, which was defined as the completion of the learning curve. We defined the completion of the learning curve when the following 3 conditions were satisfied. 1) The operation time was less than 165 minutes. 2) There was no blood loss. 3) There was no intraoperative complication. In order to establish the appropriate number of surgical experiences required to complete the learning curve, the cut-off value was evaluated by using a ROC curve (AUC 0.717, p < 0.001). Finally, we identified the cut-off value as 16 surgical cases (sensitivity 0.706, specificity 0.646). Learning curve seems to complete after performing 16 cases.

Learning curve for laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication for achalasia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fumiaki Yano

Full Text Available Although laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication (LHD is widely performed to address achalasia, little is known about the learning curve for this technique. We assessed the learning curve for performing LHD.Of the 514 cases with LHD performed between August 1994 and March 2016, the surgical outcomes of 463 cases were evaluated after excluding 50 cases with reduced port surgery and one case with the simultaneous performance of laparoscopic distal partial gastrectomy. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis was used to identify the cut-off value for the number of surgical experiences necessary to become proficient with LHD, which was defined as the completion of the learning curve.We defined the completion of the learning curve when the following 3 conditions were satisfied. 1 The operation time was less than 165 minutes. 2 There was no blood loss. 3 There was no intraoperative complication. In order to establish the appropriate number of surgical experiences required to complete the learning curve, the cut-off value was evaluated by using a ROC curve (AUC 0.717, p < 0.001. Finally, we identified the cut-off value as 16 surgical cases (sensitivity 0.706, specificity 0.646.Learning curve seems to complete after performing 16 cases.

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC to Determine Cut-Off Points of Biomarkers in Lung Cancer Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heidi L. Weiss

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The role of biomarkers in disease prognosis continues to be an important investigation in many cancer studies. In order for these biomarkers to have practical application in clinical decision making regarding patient treatment and follow-up, it is common to dichotomize patients into those with low vs. high expression levels. In this study, receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves, area under the curve (AUC of the ROC, sensitivity, specificity, as well as likelihood ratios were calculated to determine levels of growth factor biomarkers that best differentiate lung cancer cases versus control subjects. Selected cut-off points for p185erbB-2 and EGFR membrane appear to have good discriminating power to differentiate control tissues versus uninvolved tissues from patients with lung cancer (AUC = 89% and 90%, respectively; while AUC increased to at least 90% for selected cut-off points for p185erbB-2 membrane, EGFR membrane, and FASE when comparing between control versus carcinoma tissues from lung cancer cases. Using data from control subjects compared to patients with lung cancer, we presented a simple and intuitive approach to determine dichotomized levels of biomarkers and validated the value of these biomarkers as surrogate endpoints for cancer outcome.

THE ROLE AND PLACE OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION AND ROC ANALYSIS IN SOLVING MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC TASK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. G. Grigoryev

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Diagnostics, equally with  prevention and  treatment, is a basis of medical science and practice. For its history the medicine  has accumulated a great variety  of diagnostic methods for different diseases and  pathologic conditions. Nevertheless, new  tests,  methods and  tools are being  developed and recommended to application nowadays. Such  indicators as sensitivity and  specificity which  are defined on the basis  of fourfold contingency  tables   construction or  ROC-analysis method with  ROC  – curve  modelling (Receiver operating characteristic are used  as the  methods to estimate the  diagnostic capability. Fourfold  table  is used  with  the purpose to estimate the method which confirms or denies the diagnosis, i.e. a quality indicator. ROC-curve, being a graph, allows making the estimation of model  quality by subdivision of two classes  on the  basis  of identifying the  point  of cutting off a continuous or discrete quantitative attribute.The method of logistic regression technique is introduced as a tool to develop some  mathematical-statistical forecasting model  of probability of the event the researcher is interested in if there are two possible variants of the outcome. The method of ROC-analysis is chosen and described in detail as a tool to estimate the  model  quality. The capabilities of the named methods are demonstrated by a real example of creation  and  efficiency estimation (sensitivity and  specificity of a forecasting model  of probability of complication development in the form of pyodermatitis in children with  atopic dermatitis.

Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debon, A.; Carrion, A.; Cabrera, E.; Solano, H.

2010-01-01

The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Debon, A., E-mail: andeau@eio.upv.e [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Carrion, A. [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Cabrera, E. [Dpto. De Ingenieria Hidraulica Y Medio Ambiente, Instituto Tecnologico del Agua, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Solano, H. [Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago (Chile)

2010-01-15

The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

Disadvantages of using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to assess imaging tests: A discussion and proposal for an alternative approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halligan, Steve; Altman, Douglas G.; Mallett, Susan

2015-01-01

The objectives are to describe the disadvantages of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) to measure diagnostic test performance and to propose an alternative based on net benefit. We use a narrative review supplemented by data from a study of computer-assisted detection for CT colonography. We identified problems with ROC AUC. Confidence scoring by readers was highly non-normal, and score distribution was bimodal. Consequently, ROC curves were highly extrapolated with AUC mostly dependent on areas without patient data. AUC depended on the method used for curve fitting. ROC AUC does not account for prevalence or different misclassification costs arising from false-negative and false-positive diagnoses. Change in ROC AUC has little direct clinical meaning for clinicians. An alternative analysis based on net benefit is proposed, based on the change in sensitivity and specificity at clinically relevant thresholds. Net benefit incorporates estimates of prevalence and misclassification costs, and it is clinically interpretable since it reflects changes in correct and incorrect diagnoses when a new diagnostic test is introduced. ROC AUC is most useful in the early stages of test assessment whereas methods based on net benefit are more useful to assess radiological tests where the clinical context is known. Net benefit is more useful for assessing clinical impact. (orig.)

Maximum likelihood fitting of FROC curves under an initial-detection-and-candidate-analysis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, Darrin C.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Metz, Charles E.; Nishikawa, Robert M.

2002-01-01

We have developed a model for FROC curve fitting that relates the observer's FROC performance not to the ROC performance that would be obtained if the observer's responses were scored on a per image basis, but rather to a hypothesized ROC performance that the observer would obtain in the task of classifying a set of 'candidate detections' as positive or negative. We adopt the assumptions of the Bunch FROC model, namely that the observer's detections are all mutually independent, as well as assumptions qualitatively similar to, but different in nature from, those made by Chakraborty in his AFROC scoring methodology. Under the assumptions of our model, we show that the observer's FROC performance is a linearly scaled version of the candidate analysis ROC curve, where the scaling factors are just given by the FROC operating point coordinates for detecting initial candidates. Further, we show that the likelihood function of the model parameters given observational data takes on a simple form, and we develop a maximum likelihood method for fitting a FROC curve to this data. FROC and AFROC curves are produced for computer vision observer datasets and compared with the results of the AFROC scoring method. Although developed primarily with computer vision schemes in mind, we hope that the methodology presented here will prove worthy of further study in other applications as well

Describing three-class task performance: three-class linear discriminant analysis and three-class ROC analysis

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C.

2007-03-01

Binary ROC analysis has solid decision-theoretic foundations and a close relationship to linear discriminant analysis (LDA). In particular, for the case of Gaussian equal covariance input data, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value has a direct relationship to the Hotelling trace. Many attempts have been made to extend binary classification methods to multi-class. For example, Fukunaga extended binary LDA to obtain multi-class LDA, which uses the multi-class Hotelling trace as a figure-of-merit, and we have previously developed a three-class ROC analysis method. This work explores the relationship between conventional multi-class LDA and three-class ROC analysis. First, we developed a linear observer, the three-class Hotelling observer (3-HO). For Gaussian equal covariance data, the 3- HO provides equivalent performance to the three-class ideal observer and, under less strict conditions, maximizes the signal to noise ratio for classification of all pairs of the three classes simultaneously. The 3-HO templates are not the eigenvectors obtained from multi-class LDA. Second, we show that the three-class Hotelling trace, which is the figureof- merit in the conventional three-class extension of LDA, has significant limitations. Third, we demonstrate that, under certain conditions, there is a linear relationship between the eigenvectors obtained from multi-class LDA and 3-HO templates. We conclude that the 3-HO based on decision theory has advantages both in its decision theoretic background and in the usefulness of its figure-of-merit. Additionally, there exists the possibility of interpreting the two linear features extracted by the conventional extension of LDA from a decision theoretic point of view.

MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ahmadlou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

a new approach of Analysing GRB light curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varga, B.; Horvath, I.

2005-01-01

We estimated the T xx quantiles of the cumulative GRB light curves using our recalculated background. The basic information of the light curves was extracted by multivariate statistical methods. The possible classes of the light curves are also briefly discussed

Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROCs) in Recognition Memory: A Review

Science.gov (United States)

Yonelinas, Andrew P.; Parks, Colleen M.

2007-01-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is being used increasingly to examine the memory processes underlying recognition memory. The authors discuss the methodological issues involved in conducting and analyzing ROC results, describe the various models that have been developed to account for these results, review the behavioral empirical…

A Data-Driven Method for Selecting Optimal Models Based on Graphical Visualisation of Differences in Sequentially Fitted ROC Model Parameters

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K S Mwitondi

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Differences in modelling techniques and model performance assessments typically impinge on the quality of knowledge extraction from data. We propose an algorithm for determining optimal patterns in data by separately training and testing three decision tree models in the Pima Indians Diabetes and the Bupa Liver Disorders datasets. Model performance is assessed using ROC curves and the Youden Index. Moving differences between sequential fitted parameters are then extracted, and their respective probability density estimations are used to track their variability using an iterative graphical data visualisation technique developed for this purpose. Our results show that the proposed strategy separates the groups more robustly than the plain ROC/Youden approach, eliminates obscurity, and minimizes over-fitting. Further, the algorithm can easily be understood by non-specialists and demonstrates multi-disciplinary compliance.

Crack-tip constraint analyses and constraint-dependent LBB curves for circumferential through-wall cracked pipes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Y.L.; Wang, G.Z., E-mail: gzwang@ecust.edu.cn; Xuan, F.Z.; Tu, S.T.

2015-04-15

Highlights: • Solution of constraint parameter τ* for through-wall cracked pipes has been obtained. • Constraint increases with increasing crack length and radius–thickness ratio of pipes. • Constraint-dependent LBB curve for through-wall cracked pipes has been constructed. • For increasing accuracy of LBB assessments, constraint effect should be considered. - Abstract: The leak-before-break (LBB) concept has been widely applied in the structural integrity assessments of pressured pipes in nuclear power plants. However, the crack-tip constraint effects in LBB analyses and designs cannot be incorporated. In this paper, by using three-dimensional finite element calculations, the modified load-independent T-stress constraint parameter τ* for circumferential through-wall cracked pipes with different geometries and crack sizes has been analyzed under different loading conditions, and the solutions of the crack-tip constraint parameter τ* have been obtained. Based on the τ* solutions and constraint-dependent J–R curves of a steel, the constraint-dependent LBB (leak-before-break) curves have been constructed. The results show that the constraint τ* increases with increasing crack length θ, mean radius R{sub m} and radius–thickness ratio R{sub m}/t of the pipes. In LBB analyses, the critical crack length calculated by the J–R curve of the standard high constraint specimen for pipes with shorter cracks is over-conservative, and the degree of conservatism increases with decreasing crack length θ, R{sub m} and R{sub m}/t. Therefore, the constraint-dependent LBB curves should be constructed to modify the over-conservatism and increase accuracy of LBB assessments.

The Weiss Functional Impairment Rating Scale-Parent Form for assessing ADHD: evaluating diagnostic accuracy and determining optimal thresholds using ROC analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Trevor; Lloyd, Andrew; Joseph, Alain; Weiss, Margaret

2017-07-01

The Weiss Functional Impairment Rating Scale-Parent Form (WFIRS-P) is a 50-item scale that assesses functional impairment on six clinically relevant domains typically affected in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). As functional impairment is central to ADHD, the WFIRS-P offers potential as a tool for assessing functional impairment in ADHD. These analyses were designed to examine the overall performance of WFIRS-P in differentiating ADHD and non-ADHD cases using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. This is the first attempt to empirically determine the level of functional impairment that differentiates ADHD children from normal controls. This observational study comprised 5-19-year-olds with physician-diagnosed ADHD (n = 476) and non-ADHD controls (n = 202). ROC analysis evaluated the ability of WFIRS-P to discriminate between ADHD and non-ADHD, and identified a WFIRS-P cut-off score that optimises correct classification. Data were analysed for the complete sample, for males versus females and for participants in two age groups (5-12 versus 13-19 years). Area under the curve (AUC) was 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.88-0.93) for the overall WFIRS-P score, suggesting highly accurate classification of ADHD distinct from non-ADHD. Sensitivity (0.83) and specificity (0.85) were maximal for a mean overall WFIRS-P score of 0.65, suggesting that this is an appropriate threshold for differentiation. DeLong's test found no significant differences in AUCs for males versus females or 5-12 versus 13-19 years, suggesting that WFIRS-P is an accurate classifier of ADHD across gender and age. When assessing function, WFIRS-P appears to provide a simple and effective basis for differentiating between individuals with/without ADHD in terms of functional impairment. Disease-specific applications of QOL research.

RocKeTeria restaurant

Science.gov (United States)

2000-01-01

When StenniSphere at John C. Stennis Space Center in Hancock County, Miss., opened in May 2000, it introduced the RocKeTeria, a new 1960s-style, space-themed restaurant located in the newly expanded visitor center. The restaurant, operated by the owners of Mary's Drive Inn of Biloxi, features an extensive collection of space-related photos from that era, as well as a full menu of home-style cooking.

El Rocío y el turismo de peregrinación

OpenAIRE

Villa Díaz, Águeda

2006-01-01

La palabra Rocío está llena de significados: una virgen, una romería y una aldea vecinas de la marisma del Guadalquivir bautizadas por un fenómeno microclimático, como es la diaria y fecunda presencia de agua en su mínima expresión las gotas de rocío. Pero este nombre evoca, sobre todo, a la devoción a Nuestra Señora del Rocío Patrona de Almonte y a su anual romería de Pentecostés el Rocío Grande. Esta romería ha conocido una gran expansión en los últimos cincuenta años, atrayendo peregrinos ...

Acurácia de critérios para vagotonia no eletrocardiograma de repouso de 12 derivações: uma análise com curvas ROC Accuracy of vagotonia criteria in the 12-lead resting electrocardiogram: analysis with ROC curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Kawazoe Lazzoli

2002-04-01

ível de segmento S-T em cinco ou mais derivações e presença de transição precordial rápida. DISCUSSÃO E CONCLUSÃO: O desempenho dos critérios eletrocardiográficos em termos de VPP, VPN e AC foi muito limitado, com a exceção da duração do intervalo R-R. A combinação de outros critérios como amplitude da onda T em V5 e V6, amplitude da onda R em V4 e presença de supradesnível de ponto J e do segmento S-T em várias derivações pode auxiliar na predição de vagotonia.OBJECTIVE: To determine sensitivity (Sens, specificity (Spec, positive (PPV and negative (NPV predictive value, and accuracy of different electrocardiographic criteria for vagotonia. METHODS: Seventy-four Olympic athletes (51 male and 23 female; age = 24 ± 5 years underwent an evaluation consisting of a 12-lead resting electrocardiogram (ECG, and an assessment of cardiac vagal tone (CVT by the 4-second cycling exercise testing (4-sET, with the B/C index utilized as the gold standard. The 4-sET is a well-standardized and valid protocol for CVT assessment based on the mechanism of exercise-onset tachycardia regardless of the sympathetic component. Using ROC (receiver operating characteristic curves, the authors selected the cut-point with the best sensitivity (Sens/specificity (Spec ratio for each ECG variable, and calculated the positive (PPV and negative predictive values (NPV, and accuracy (AC. The authors also correlated B/C index with ECG variables. RESULTS: B/C index showed a poor association with ECG variables, with the exception of R-R interval (r = 0.353; P = 0.004, that also presented a significant ROC curve (chi2= 0.863; P = 0.002, whereas the R-R interval > or = 990 ms criterion showed the following results: Sens - 100%; Spec - 73%; VPP 20%; VPN 100%; AC 75%. The ECG variables that presented cut-points with accuracy > 80% were: T-wave amplitude in lead V5 > or = 8.0 mm; T-wave amplitude in lead V6 > or = 7.0 mm; Q-wave amplitude in V5 > or = 7.0 mm; R-wave amplitude in V4 > or

"Remember" source memory ROCs indicate recollection is a continuous process.

Science.gov (United States)

Slotnick, Scott D

2010-01-01

The dual process model assumes memory is based on recollection (retrieval with specific detail) or familiarity (retrieval without specific detail). A current debate is whether recollection is a threshold process or, like familiarity, is a continuous process. In the present study two continuous models and two threshold models of recollection were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. These models included the continuous signal detection unequal variance model and the threshold dual process model. In the study phase of three experiments, objects were presented to the right or left of fixation. At test, participants made either remember-know responses or item confidence responses followed by source memory (spatial location) confidence ratings. Recollection-based ROCs were generated from source memory confidence ratings associated with "remember" responses (in Experiments 1-2) or the highest item confidence responses (in Experiment 3). Neither threshold model adequately fit any of the recollection-based ROCs. By contrast, one or both of the continuous models adequately fit all of the recollection-based ROCs. The present results indicate recollection and familiarity are both continuous processes.

Accrual of ROCs LECs and REGOs. Phase 3a: pre-determined entitlements to ROCs for small microgenerators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

This report describes a proposed scheme to enable microgenerators in the UK to claim Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) on the basis of predetermined estimates of output rather than data from meters. The aim of the scheme, which has been developed following discussions with representatives of the microgeneration community in the UK, is to make it easier for small generators to access to ROCs and thus encourage householders and smaller commercial/business users to install renewable microgeneration technologies. The work was commissioned as part of the review of the Renewables Obligation. The report considers: background information; the Australian scheme for small generating units; eligibility and entitlements; the operation of the scheme; new procedural and legislative requirements; measures to protect and improve the Renewables Obligation; alterative approaches; scheme benefits; and recommendations. An overview of the scheme's key features is given in the report's executive summary.

El rocío y el turismo de peregrinación

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Águeda Villa Díaz

2006-01-01

Full Text Available La palabra Rocío está llena de significados: una virgen, una romería y una aldea —vecinas de la marisma del Guadalquivir— bautizadas por un fenómeno microclimático, como es la diaria y fecunda presencia de agua en su mínima expresión —las gotas de rocío—. Pero este nombre evoca, sobre todo, a la devoción a Nuestra Señora del Rocío —Patrona de Almonte— y a su anual romería de Pentecostés —el Rocío Grande—. Esta romería ha conocido una gran expansión en los últimos cincuenta años, atrayendo peregrinos de puntos cada vez más lejanos, pero su origen es muy antiguo y siempre se ha desarrollado asociada a la aldea. En su imparable proceso de crecimiento, aquella aldea y sus rituales festivos muestran una rápida evolución —adaptable a las nuevas circunstancias— que no desdeña la incorporación de nuevos y dispares elementos, que las modifican sensible y profundamente. De manera que, el Rocío conforma, actualmente, una realidad espacial, social, económica, cultural y simbólica en ebullición. La estrecha vinculación de la aldea y las rutas de peregrinación con los espacios protegidos de Doñana relacionan El Rocío con las políticas de conservación de la naturaleza.

Plateletpheresis efficiency and mathematical correction of software-derived platelet yield prediction: A linear regression and ROC modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaime-Pérez, José Carlos; Jiménez-Castillo, Raúl Alberto; Vázquez-Hernández, Karina Elizabeth; Salazar-Riojas, Rosario; Méndez-Ramírez, Nereida; Gómez-Almaguer, David

2017-10-01

Advances in automated cell separators have improved the efficiency of plateletpheresis and the possibility of obtaining double products (DP). We assessed cell processor accuracy of predicted platelet (PLT) yields with the goal of a better prediction of DP collections. This retrospective proof-of-concept study included 302 plateletpheresis procedures performed on a Trima Accel v6.0 at the apheresis unit of a hematology department. Donor variables, software predicted yield and actual PLT yield were statistically evaluated. Software prediction was optimized by linear regression analysis and its optimal cut-off to obtain a DP assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) modeling. Three hundred and two plateletpheresis procedures were performed; in 271 (89.7%) occasions, donors were men and in 31 (10.3%) women. Pre-donation PLT count had the best direct correlation with actual PLT yield (r = 0.486. P Simple correction derived from linear regression analysis accurately corrected this underestimation and ROC analysis identified a precise cut-off to reliably predict a DP. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the form of ROCs constructed from confidence ratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Malmberg, Kenneth J

2002-03-01

A classical question for memory researchers is whether memories vary in an all-or-nothing, discrete manner (e.g., stored vs. not stored, recalled vs. not recalled), or whether they vary along a continuous dimension (e.g., strength, similarity, or familiarity). For yes-no classification tasks, continuous- and discrete-state models predict nonlinear and linear receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), respectively (D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966; N. A. Macmillan & C. D. Creelman, 1991). Recently, several authors have assumed that these predictions are generalizable to confidence ratings tasks (J. Qin, C. L. Raye, M. K. Johnson, & K. J. Mitchell, 2001; S. D. Slotnick, S. A. Klein, C. S. Dodson, & A. P. Shimamura, 2000, and A. P. Yonelinas, 1999). This assumption is shown to be unwarranted by showing that discrete-state ratings models predict both linear and nonlinear ROCs. The critical factor determining the form of the discrete-state ROC is the response strategy adopted by the classifier.

Geisinger high-risk osteoporosis clinic (HiROC): 2013-2015 FLS performance analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunn, P; Webb, D; Olenginski, T P

2018-02-01

Geisinger Health System (GHS) high-risk osteoporosis clinic (HiROC), which treats patients with low-trauma, fragility fractures, reports their 2013-2015 performance measures in secondary fracture prevention. This fracture liaison service (FLS) pathway treats 75% of high-risk, drug eligible patients, compared to 13.8% in GHS primary care. This performance points to the need for more FLS programs throughout the world. The purpose of this study is to analyze and report ongoing performance measures in outpatient and inpatient high-risk osteoporosis clinic (HiROC) program designed for patients with low-trauma, fragility fractures. Retrospective chart review of outpatient HiROC (511 patients) and inpatient HiROC (1279 patients) performance from 2013 to 2015 is reported within Geisinger Health System (GHS). Similar to a prior report, we document that Geisinger's branded outpatient and inpatient HiROC pathways continue to function as an all-fracture FLS. Importantly, this analysis emphasizes the importance of FLS care that HiROC's treatment rate of 75% was markedly superior to GHS-PCP care of 13.8%. However, a large percentage of patients (37.8%) were lost to follow-up care. This led to the identification of multiple care gaps/barriers to ideal best practice. FLS programs use case finding strategies and address secondary fracture prevention. GHS HiROC's performance and initiation of drug therapy in this fracture patient population contrasts with GHS-PCP care's much lower rate of treatment, documenting the need for ongoing FLS care. Importantly, the results of this analysis have prompted the beginnings of GHS programmatic changes, designed to narrow the reported care gaps in this mature FLS.

Comparison of rat epidermal keratinocyte organotypic culture (ROC) with intact human skin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pappinen, Sari; Hermansson, Martin; Kuntsche, Judith

2008-01-01

study was to compare the stratum corneum lipid content of ROC with the corresponding material from human skin. The lipid composition was determined by thin-layer chromatography (TLC) and mass-spectrometry, and the thermal phase transitions of stratum corneum were studied by differential scanning...... calorimetry (DSC). All major lipid classes of the stratum corneum were present in ROC in a similar ratio as found in human stratum corneum. Compared to human skin, the level of non-hydroxyacid-sphingosine ceramide (NS) was increased in ROC, while alpha-hydroxyacid-phytosphingosine ceramide (AP) and non...... compared to human skin, in agreement with the results from DSC. ROC underwent a lipid lamellar order to disorder transition (T2) at a slightly lower temperature (68 degrees C) than human skin (74 degrees C). These differences in stratum corneum lipid composition and the thermal phase transitions may...

Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis without truth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henkelman, R.M.; Kay, I.; Bronskill, M.J.

1990-01-01

Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, the preferred method of evaluating diagnostic imaging tests, requires an independent assessment of the true state of disease, which can be difficult to obtain and is often of questionable accuracy. A new method of analysis is described which does not require independent truth data and which can be used when several accurate tests are being compared. This method uses correlative information to estimate the underlying model of multivariate normal distributions of disease-positive and disease-negative patients. The method is shown to give results equivalent to conventional ROC analysis in a comparison of computed tomography, radionuclide scintigraphy, and magnetic resonance imaging for liver metastasis. When independent truth is available, the method can be extended to incorporate truth data or to evaluate the consistency of the truth data with the imaging data

Determination of a cutoff value for pelvic floor distensibility using the Epi-no balloon to predict perineal integrity in vaginal delivery: ROC curve analysis. Prospective observational single cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miriam Raquel Diniz Zanetti

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Several risk factors are involved in perineal lacerations during vaginal delivery. However, little is known about the influence of perineal distensibility as a protective factor. The aim here was to determine a cutoff value for pelvic floor distensibility measured using the Epi-no balloon, which could be used as a predictive factor for perineal integrity in vaginal delivery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective observational single cohort study conducted in a maternity hospital. METHODS: A convenience sample of 227 consecutive at-term parturients was used. All women had a single fetus in the vertex presentation, with up to 9.0 cm of dilation. The maximum dilation of the Epi-no balloon was measured using a tape measure after it had been inflated inside the vagina up to the parturients' maximum tolerance. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to obtain the Epi-no circumference measurement with best sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Among the 161 patients who were included in the study, 50.9% underwent episiotomy, 21.8% presented lacerations and 27.3% retained an intact perineum. Age > 25.9 years; number of pregnancies > 3.4; number of deliveries > 2.2 and circumference measured by Epi-no > 21.4 cm were all directly correlated with an intact perineum. Circumference measurements using the Epi-no balloon that were greater than 20.8 cm showed sensitivity and specificity of 70.5% and 66.7% (area under curve = 0.713, respectively, as a predictive factor for an intact perineum in vaginal delivery. CONCLUSION: Circumferences greater than 20.8 cm achieved using the Epi-no balloon are a predictive factor for perineal integrity in parturients.

Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.

Film-screen vs. digital radiography in rheumatoid arthritis of the hand. An ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonsson, A.; Borg, A.; Hannesson, P.; Herrlin, K.; Jonsson, K.; Sloth, M.; Pettersson, H.

1994-01-01

In a prospective investigation the diagnostic accuracy of filmscreen and digital radiography in rheumatoid arthritis of hands was compared. Seventy hands of 36 patients with established rheumatoid arthritis were included in the study. Each of 11 joints in every hand was evaluated regarding the following radiologic parameters: soft tissue swelling, joint space narrowing, erosions and periarticular osteopenia. The digital images were obtained with storage phosphor image plates and evaluated in 2 forms; as digital hard-copy on film and on a monitor of an interactive workstation. The digital images had a resolution of either 3.33 or 5.0 lp/mm. ROC curves were constructed and comparing the area under the curves no significant difference was found between the 3 different imaging forms in either resolution group for soft tissue swelling, joint space narrowing and erosions. The film-screen image evaluation of periarticular osteopenia was significantly better than the digital hard-copy one in the 3.33 lp/mm resolution group, but no significant difference was found in the 5.0 lp/mm group. These results support the view that currently available digital systems are capable of adequate diagnostic performance. (orig.)

Use of tidal breathing curves for evaluating expiratory airway obstruction in infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Hevroni, Avigdor; Goldman, Aliza; Blank-Brachfeld, Miriam; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Ben-Dov, Lior; Springer, Chaim

2018-01-15

To evaluate tidal breathing (TB) flow-volume and flow-time curves for identification of expiratory airway obstruction in infants. Pulmonary function tests were analyzed retrospectively in 156 infants aged 3-24 months with persistent or recurrent respiratory complaints. Parameters derived from TB curves were compared to maximal expiratory flow at functional residual capacity ([Formula: see text]maxFRC) measured by rapid thoracoabdominal compression technique. Analyzed parameters were: inspiratory time (t I ), expiratory time (t E ), tidal volume, peak tidal expiratory flow (PTEF), time to peak tidal expiratory flow (t PTEF ), expiratory flow when 50% and 25% of tidal volume remains in the lungs (FEF 50 , FEF 25 , respectively), and the ratios t PTEF /t E , t I /t E , FEF 50 /PTEF, and FEF 25 /PTEF. Statistical comparisons between flow indices and TB parameters were performed using mean squared error and Pearson's sample correlation coefficient. The study population was also divided into two groups based on severity of expiratory obstruction (above or below z-score for [Formula: see text]maxFRC of -2) to generate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculate discriminatory values between the groups. TB parameters that were best correlated to [Formula: see text]maxFRC were: t PTEF /t E , FEF 50 /PTEF, and FEF 25 /PTEF, with r = 0.61, 0.67, 0.65, respectively (p < 0.0001 for all). ROC curves for FEF 50 /PTEF, FEF 25 /PTEF and t PTEF /t E showed areas under the curve of 0.813, 0.797, and 0.796, respectively. Cutoff value z-scores of -0.35, -0.34, and -0.43 for these three parameters, respectively, showed an 86% negative predictive value for severe airway obstructions. TB curves can assist in ruling out severe expiratory airway obstruction in infants.

The diagnosis of small solitary pulmonary nodule: comparison of standard and inverse digital images on a high resolution monitor using ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Byeong Kyoo; Lee, In Sun; Seo, Joon Beom; Lee, Jin Seong; Song, Koun Sik; Lim, Tae Hwan

2002-01-01

To study the impact of inversion of soft-copy chest radiographs on the detection of small solitary pulmonary nodules using a high-resolution monitor. The study group consisted of 80 patients who had undergone posterior chest radiography; 40 had a solitary noncalcified pulmonary nodule approximately 1 cm in diameter, and 40 were control subjects. Standard and inverse digital images using the inversion tool on a PACS system were displayed on high-resolution monitors (2048x2560x8 bit). Ten radiologists were requested to rank each image using a five-point scale (1=definitely negative, 3=equivocal or indeterminate, 5=definite nodule), and the data were interpreted using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve for pooled data of standard image sets was significantly larger than that of inverse image sets (0.8893 and 0.8095, respectively; p 0.05). For detecting small solitary pulmonary nodules, inverse digital images were significantly inferior to standard digital images

Clinical diagnostic accuracy of acute colonic diverticulitis in patients admitted with acute abdominal pain, a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamal Talabani, A; Endreseth, B H; Lydersen, S; Edna, T-H

2017-01-01

The study investigated the capability of clinical findings, temperature, C-reactive protein (CRP), and white blood cell (WBC) count to discern patients with acute colonic diverticulitis from all other patients admitted with acute abdominal pain. The probability of acute diverticulitis was assessed by the examining doctor, using a scale from 0 (zero probability) to 10 (100 % probability). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the clinical diagnostic accuracy of acute colonic diverticulitis in patients admitted with acute abdominal pain. Of 833 patients admitted with acute abdominal pain, 95 had acute colonic diverticulitis. ROC curve analysis gave an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.95 (CI 0.92 to 0.97) for ages patients. Separate analysis showed an AUC = 0.83 (CI 0.80 to 0.86) of CRP alone. White blood cell count and temperature were almost useless to discriminate acute colonic diverticulitis from other types of acute abdominal pain, AUC = 0.59 (CI 0.53 to 0.65) for white blood cell count and AUC = 0.57 (0.50 to 0.63) for temperature, respectively. This prospective study demonstrates that standard clinical evaluation by non-specialist doctors based on history, physical examination, and initial blood tests on admission provides a high degree of diagnostic precision in patients with acute colonic diverticulitis.

Use of the ROC model for optimalization in radiotherapy for head and neck cancers. Pt. 2. Cancer of the oral cavity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maciejewski, B.; Zajusz, A.; Rota, L.

1993-01-01

The ROC model is used to estimate optimal radiation treatment for cancer of the oral cavity. For 210 patients with cancer of the oral cavity iso-utility curves and k values were determined for various tumors stages and overall treatment times. Optimal k value decreases from 0.792 to 0.584 when overall treatment time is prolonged from 35 to 49 days. It may suggest that the planning of extra dose to balance the effect of extension of overall treatment time does not really improve therapeutic gain. (author)

Potential of MR histogram analyses for prediction of response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, He-Yue; Huang, Ya-Qin; Yang, Zhao-Xia; Ying-Ding; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

2016-07-01

To determine if magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) histogram analyses can help predict response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases by using response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST1.1) as the reference standard. Standard MRI including diffusion-weighted imaging (b=0, 500 s/mm(2)) was performed before chemotherapy in 53 patients with colorectal hepatic metastases. Histograms were performed for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, arterial, and portal venous phase images; thereafter, mean, percentiles (1st, 10th, 50th, 90th, 99th), skewness, kurtosis, and variance were generated. Quantitative histogram parameters were compared between responders (partial and complete response, n=15) and non-responders (progressive and stable disease, n=38). Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analyses were further analyzed for the significant parameters. The mean, 1st percentile, 10th percentile, 50th percentile, 90th percentile, 99th percentile of the ADC maps were significantly lower in responding group than that in non-responding group (p=0.000-0.002) with area under the ROC curve (AUCs) of 0.76-0.82. The histogram parameters of arterial and portal venous phase showed no significant difference (p>0.05) between the two groups. Histogram-derived parameters for ADC maps seem to be a promising tool for predicting response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases. • ADC histogram analyses can potentially predict chemotherapy response in colorectal liver metastases. • Lower histogram-derived parameters (mean, percentiles) for ADC tend to have good response. • MR enhancement histogram analyses are not reliable to predict response.

Risk Factor Analyses for the Return of Spontaneous Circulation in the Asphyxiation Cardiac Arrest Porcine Model

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Cai-Jun Wu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Animal models of asphyxiation cardiac arrest (ACA are frequently used in basic research to mirror the clinical course of cardiac arrest (CA. The rates of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC in ACA animal models are lower than those from studies that have utilized ventricular fibrillation (VF animal models. The purpose of this study was to characterize the factors associated with the ROSC in the ACA porcine model. Methods: Forty-eight healthy miniature pigs underwent endotracheal tube clamping to induce CA. Once induced, CA was maintained untreated for a period of 8 min. Two minutes following the initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR, defibrillation was attempted until ROSC was achieved or the animal died. To assess the factors associated with ROSC in this CA model, logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze gender, the time of preparation, the amplitude spectrum area (AMSA from the beginning of CPR and the pH at the beginning of CPR. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of AMSA for ROSC. Results: ROSC was only 52.1% successful in this ACA porcine model. The multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that ROSC significantly depended on the time of preparation, AMSA at the beginning of CPR and pH at the beginning of CPR. The area under the ROC curve in for AMSA at the beginning of CPR was 0.878 successful in predicting ROSC (95% confidence intervals: 0.773∼0.983, and the optimum cut-off value was 15.62 (specificity 95.7% and sensitivity 80.0%. Conclusions: The time of preparation, AMSA and the pH at the beginning of CPR were associated with ROSC in this ACA porcine model. AMSA also predicted the likelihood of ROSC in this ACA animal model.

Receiver operating characteristic curve evaluation on computed radiography: an experimental study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Zixi; Wang Changyuan; Xu Yue; Xie Jindong; Zhang Menglong; Wang Jian

2003-01-01

Objective: To get the maximum information from computed radiography (CR) output images by changing post-processing parameters. Methods: Six experimental photos of polypropylene balls of 2.0 mm in diameter were taken by means of one time X-ray exposing on an imaging plate (IP) with different post-processing parameters including rotation amount (GA), gray gradation type (GT), rotation center (GC), shifting amount (GS), frequency rank (RN), frequency type (RT), and degree of enhancement (RE). 6 photos were viewed by three students and one radiologist on a 6000 lx illuminance viewbox. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were made by means of 5-value-differentiation method. Results: The largest mean area value (Az) below ROC curves of a low contrast experimental photo with post-processing parameters GA=1.0, GT=A, GC=1.6, GS=0.3, RN=4.0, RT=R and RE=3.0 was 0.96, and the maximum information was obtained. The smallest mean area value (Az) was 0.78 with changed post-processing parameters GA=0.8, GS=-0.2 and RE=0.5 while other parameters were not changed. The minimum information was obtained from this photo. Conclusion: In order to get the maximum information from a CR output image, the post-processing parameters should be suitably selected

Reliability in NDT: ROC study of radiographic weld inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nockemann, C.; Heidt, H.; Thomsen, N.

1991-01-01

The complexity of modern nondestructive testing (NDT) equipment as well as the demand for high reliability in many industries makes it necessary to have a tool to assess different NDT techniques and devices quickly. As for cost benefit considerations, a measure of accuracy has to include not only the number of correctly detected defects but also the corresponding number of false indications. In order to satisfy a variety of security demands this ratio of true and false indications must be known for a wide range of defect dimensions to be included in the defect count. This information will be provided by only one ROC (relative operating characteristic) study of inspection data using the rating confidence method. An expanded ROC version also yields an assessment of the accuracy of the defect classification and of the correctness of the indicated defect importance. All these measures of performance can also be called up for each individual inspector. For demonstrating the power of the method it is applied to ascertain the difference in detection performance of three distinct experimental modalities in the radiographic testing of welded joints. In order to be capable of drawing conclusions reliably, the study is completed by statistical significance tests. The paper shows the usefulness of ROC for performance assessment in NDT and gives an illustration of what can be done with which effort. (Author)

Recent developments in the ROCS/MC code for retrieving local power information in coarse-mesh reactor analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grill, S.F.; Jonsson, A.; Crump, M.W.

1983-01-01

The inclusion of 3-D effects in PWR analysis is necessary for accurate predictions of reactivity, power distributions, and reactivity coefficients. The ROCS/MC code system has been developed by Combustion Engineering to provide 3-D coarse mesh analysis (ROCS) with the capability to retrieve local information on flux, power and burnup (MC). A review of the finite difference representation of the MC diffusion equation, along with recent improvements to the ROCS/MC system are presented. These improvements include the implementation if fine mesh radial boundary conditions and internal calculation of coarse mesh boundary conditions, generalization of the imbedded calculation to account for the local neighboring environment, and the automation of ROCS/MC links to C-E's code system for in-core power distribution monitoring and core-follow analysis. The results of the ROCS/MC verification program are described and show good agreement with C-E's ROCS/PDQ based methodologies

Receiver-operating characteristic curves and likelihood ratios: improvements over traditional methods for the evaluation and application of veterinary clinical pathology tests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gardner, Ian A.; Greiner, Matthias

2006-01-01

Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a cutoff-independent method for the evaluation of continuous or ordinal tests used in clinical pathology laboratories. The area under the curve is a useful overall measure of test accuracy and can be used to compare different tests (or...... different equipment) used by the same tester, as well as the accuracy of different diagnosticians that use the same test material. To date, ROC analysis has not been widely used in veterinary clinical pathology studies, although it should be considered a useful complement to estimates of sensitivity...... and specificity in test evaluation studies. In addition, calculation of likelihood ratios can potentially improve the clinical utility of such studies because likelihood ratios provide an indication of how the post-test probability changes as a function of the magnitude of the test results. For ordinal test...

Receiver-operating characteristic curves for somatic cell scores and California mastitis test in Valle del Be lice dairy sheep

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Riggio, V.; Pesce, L.L.; Morreale, S.; Portolano, B.

2013-01-01

Using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve methodology this study was designed to assess the diagnostic effectiveness of somatic cell count (SCC) and the California mastitis test (CMT) in Valle del Belice sheep, and to propose and evaluate threshold values for those tests that would

Activity optimization method in nuclear medicine: a comparison with roc analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Diaz, M.; Diaz Rizo, O.; Lopez, A.; Estevez Aparicio, E.; Roque Diaz, R.

2006-01-01

Full text of publication follows: A discriminant method for optimizing the administered activity is validated by comparison with R.O.C. curves. The method is tested in 21 SPECT studies, performed with a Cardiac phantom. Three different cold lesions (L1, L2 and L3) are placed in the myocardium-wall by pairs for each SPECT. Three activities (84 MBq, 37 MBq or 18.5 MBq) of Tc 99 m diluted in water are used as background. The discriminant analysis is used to select the parameters that characterize image quality among the measured variables in the obtained tomographic images. They are a group of Lesion-to-Background (L/B) and Signal-to-Noise (S/N) ratios. Two clusters with different image quality (p=0.021) are obtained following the measured variables. The first one contains the studies performed with 37 MBq and 84 MBq and the second one the studies made with 18.5 MBq. Cluster classifications constitute the dependent variable in the discriminant function. The ratios B/L1, B/L2 and B/L3 are the parameters able to construct the function with 100 % of cases correctly classified into the clusters. The value of 37 MBq is the lowest tested activity that permits good results for the L/B variables, without significant differences respect to 84 MBq (p>0.05). The result is coincident with the applied R.O.C.-analysis, in which 37 MBq permits the highest area under the curve and low false-positive and false-negative rates with significant differences respect to 18.5 MBq (p=0.008)

Observer performance in detecting multiple radiographic signals: prediction and analysis using a generalized ROC approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.E.; Starr, S.J.; Lusted, L.B.

1975-01-01

The theories of decision processes and signal detection provide a framework for the evaluation of observer performance. Some radiologic procedures involve a search for multiple similar lesions, as in gallstone or pneumoconiosis examinations. A model is presented which attempts to predict, from the conventional receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve describing the detectability of a single visual signal in a radiograph, observer performance in an experiment requiring detection of more than one such signal. An experiment is described which tests the validity of this model for the case of detecting the presence of zero, one, or two low-contrast radiographic images of a two-mm.-diameter lucite bead embedded in radiographic mottle. Results from six observers, including three radiologists, confirm the validity of the model and suggest that human observer performance for relatively complex detection tasks can be predicted from the results of simpler experiments

Accuracy of an automated system for tuberculosis detection on chest radiographs in high-risk screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Melendez, J; Hogeweg, L; Sánchez, C I; Philipsen, R H H M; Aldridge, R W; Hayward, A C; Abubakar, I; van Ginneken, B; Story, A

2018-05-01

Tuberculosis (TB) screening programmes can be optimised by reducing the number of chest radiographs (CXRs) requiring interpretation by human experts. To evaluate the performance of computerised detection software in triaging CXRs in a high-throughput digital mobile TB screening programme. A retrospective evaluation of the software was performed on a database of 38 961 postero-anterior CXRs from unique individuals seen between 2005 and 2010, 87 of whom were diagnosed with TB. The software generated a TB likelihood score for each CXR. This score was compared with a reference standard for notified active pulmonary TB using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and localisation ROC (LROC) curve analyses. On ROC curve analysis, software specificity was 55.71% (95%CI 55.21-56.20) and negative predictive value was 99.98% (95%CI 99.95-99.99), at a sensitivity of 95%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.90 (95%CI 0.86-0.93). Results of the LROC curve analysis were similar. The software could identify more than half of the normal images in a TB screening setting while maintaining high sensitivity, and may therefore be used for triage.

Recognition Errors Suggest Fast Familiarity and Slow Recollection in Rhesus Monkeys

Science.gov (United States)

Basile, Benjamin M.; Hampton, Robert R.

2013-01-01

One influential model of recognition posits two underlying memory processes: recollection, which is detailed but relatively slow, and familiarity, which is quick but lacks detail. Most of the evidence for this dual-process model in nonhumans has come from analyses of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in rats, but whether ROC analyses…

Quantitative analysis of the dual-energy CT virtual spectral curve for focal liver lesions characterization

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Wang, Qi, E-mail: wq20@hotmail.com; Shi, Gaofeng, E-mail: gaofengs62@sina.com; Qi, Xiaohui, E-mail: qixiaohui1984@163.com; Fan, Xueli, E-mail: 407849960@qq.com; Wang, Lijia, E-mail: 893197597@qq.com

2014-10-15

Highlights: • We establish a feasible method using the virtual spectral curves (VSC) to differentiate focal liver lesions using DECT. • Our study shows the slope of the VSC can be used to differentiate between hemangioma, HCC, metastasis and cyst. • Importantly, the diagnostic specificities associated with using the slope to diagnose both hemangioma and cysts were 100%. - Abstract: Objective: To assess the usefulness of the spectral curve slope of dual-energy CT (DECT) for differentiating between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), hepatic metastasis, hemangioma (HH) and cysts. Methods: In total, 121 patients were imaged in the portal venous phase using dual-energy mode. Of these patients, 23 patients had HH, 28 patients had HCC, 40 patients had metastases and 30 patients had simple cysts. The spectral curves of the hepatic lesions were derived from the 40–190 keV levels of virtual monochromatic spectral imaging. The spectral curve slopes were calculated from 40 to 110 keV. The slopes were compared using the Kruskal–Wallis test. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were used to determine the optimal cut-off value of the slope of the spectral curve to differentiate between the lesions. Results: The spectral curves of the four lesion types had different baseline levels. The HH baseline level was the highest followed by HCC, metastases and cysts. The slopes of the spectral curves of HH, HCC, metastases and cysts were 3.81 ± 1.19, 1.49 ± 0.57, 1.06 ± 0.76 and 0.13 ± 0.17, respectively. These values were significantly different (P < 0.008). Based on ROC analysis, the respective diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 87% and 100% for hemangioma (cut-off value ≥ 2.988), 82.1% and 65.9% for HCC (cut-off value 1.167–2.998), 65.9% and 59% for metastasis (cut-off value 0.133–1.167) and 44.4% and 100% for cysts (cut-off value ≤ 0.133). Conclusion: Quantitative analysis of the DECT spectral curve in the portal venous phase can be used to

[Application of decision curve on evaluation of MRI predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer].

Science.gov (United States)

He, Y J; Li, X T; Fan, Z Q; Li, Y L; Cao, K; Sun, Y S; Ouyang, T

2018-01-23

Objective: To construct a dynamic enhanced MR based predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer, and to evaluate the clinical benefit of the model by using decision curve. Methods: From December 2005 to December 2007, 170 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy were identified and their MR images before neoadjuvant therapy and at the end of the first cycle of neoadjuvant therapy were collected. Logistic regression model was used to detect independent factors for predicting pCR and construct the predictive model accordingly, then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive model. Results: ΔArea(max) and Δslope(max) were independent predictive factors for pCR, OR =0.942 (95% CI : 0.918-0.967) and 0.961 (95% CI : 0.940-0.987), respectively. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for the constructed model was 0.886 (95% CI : 0.820-0.951). Decision curve showed that in the range of the threshold probability above 0.4, the predictive model presented increased net benefit as the threshold probability increased. Conclusions: The constructed predictive model for pCR is of potential clinical value, with an AUC>0.85. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis indicates the constructed predictive model has net benefit from 3 to 8 percent in the likely range of probability threshold from 80% to 90%.

Technological change in energy systems. Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Haoran; Koehler, Jonathan

2007-01-01

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R and D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R and D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does. (author)

A ROC-based feature selection method for computer-aided detection and diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Songyuan; Zhang, Guopeng; Liao, Qimei; Zhang, Junying; Jiao, Chun; Lu, Hongbing

2014-03-01

Image-based computer-aided detection and diagnosis (CAD) has been a very active research topic aiming to assist physicians to detect lesions and distinguish them from benign to malignant. However, the datasets fed into a classifier usually suffer from small number of samples, as well as significantly less samples available in one class (have a disease) than the other, resulting in the classifier's suboptimal performance. How to identifying the most characterizing features of the observed data for lesion detection is critical to improve the sensitivity and minimize false positives of a CAD system. In this study, we propose a novel feature selection method mR-FAST that combines the minimal-redundancymaximal relevance (mRMR) framework with a selection metric FAST (feature assessment by sliding thresholds) based on the area under a ROC curve (AUC) generated on optimal simple linear discriminants. With three feature datasets extracted from CAD systems for colon polyps and bladder cancer, we show that the space of candidate features selected by mR-FAST is more characterizing for lesion detection with higher AUC, enabling to find a compact subset of superior features at low cost.

Optimization of restricted ROC surfaces in three-class classification tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Darrin C; Metz, Charles E

2007-10-01

We have shown previously that an N-class ideal observer achieves the optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) hypersurface in a Neyman-Pearson sense. Due to the inherent complexity of evaluating observer performance even in a three-class classification task, some researchers have suggested a generally incomplete but more tractable evaluation in terms of a surface, plotting only the three "sensitivities." More generally, one can evaluate observer performance with a single sensitivity or misclassification probability as a function of two linear combinations of sensitivities or misclassification probabilities. We analyzed four such formulations including the "sensitivity" surface. In each case, we applied the Neyman-Pearson criterion to find the observer which achieves optimal performance with respect to each given set of "performance description variables" under consideration. In the unrestricted case, optimization with respect to the Neyman-Pearson criterion yields the ideal observer, as does maximization of the observer's expected utility. Moreover, during our consideration of the restricted cases, we found that the two optimization methods do not merely yield the same observer, but are in fact completely equivalent in a mathematical sense. Thus, for a wide variety of observers which maximize performance with respect to a restricted ROC surface in the Neyman-Pearson sense, that ROC surface can also be shown to provide a complete description of the observer's performance in an expected utility sense.

Use of the ROC anchor in foot and ankle surgery. A retrospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwada, G T

1999-05-01

A retrospective study was conducted on the use of the ROC (Radial Osteo Compression) soft-tissue anchor in foot and ankle surgery. This article describes how the anchor is deployed, problematic aspects of using the anchor, and complications and success rates associated with the anchor in ankle stabilizations, posterior tibial tendon reconstruction, peroneus brevis tendon reconstruction after fracture of the base of the fifth metatarsal, and detachment and reattachment of the Achilles tendon. The ROC anchor consists of the anchor with nonabsorbable suture attached to the shaft, the deployment handle, and drill bits. The anchor and shaft are snapped into the deployment handle and inserted into the drill hole. Compression of the trigger deploys the anchor into the hole. The ROC anchor was found to be reliable, useful, and relatively easy to deploy, with outcomes similar to those of other soft-tissue anchors.

Summary receiver operating characteristic curves as a technique for meta-analysis of the diagnostic performance of duplex ultrasonography in peripheral arterial disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

deVries, SO; Hunink, MGM; Polak, JF

Rationale and Objectives. We summarized and compared the diagnostic performance of duplex and color-guided duplex ultrasonography in the evaluation of peripheral arterial disease. We present our research as an example of the use of summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in a

Gamma-ray pulsar physics: gap-model populations and light-curve analyses in the Fermi era

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierbattista, M.

2010-01-01

This thesis research focusses on the study of the young and energetic isolated ordinary pulsar population detected by the Fermi gamma-ray space telescope. We compared the model expectations of four emission models and the LAT data. We found that all the models fail to reproduce the LAT detections, in particular the large number of high E objects observed. This inconsistency is not model dependent. A discrepancy between the radio-loud/radio-quiet objects ratio was also found between the observed and predicted samples. The L γ α E 0.5 relation is robustly confirmed by all the assumed models with particular agreement in the slot gap (SG) case. On luminosity bases, the intermediate altitude emission of the two pole caustic SG model is favoured. The beaming factor f Ω shows an E dependency that is slightly visible in the SG case. Estimates of the pulsar orientations have been obtained to explain the simultaneous gamma and radio light-curves. By analysing the solutions we found a relation between the observed energy cutoff and the width of the emission slot gap. This relation has been theoretically predicted. A possible magnetic obliquity α alignment with time is rejected -for all the models- on timescale of the order of 10 6 years. The light-curve morphology study shows that the outer magnetosphere gap emission (OGs) are favoured to explain the observed radio-gamma lag. The light curve moment studies (symmetry and sharpness) on the contrary favour a two pole caustic SG emission. All the model predictions suggest a different magnetic field layout with an hybrid two pole caustic and intermediate altitude emission to explain both the pulsar luminosity and light curve morphology. The low magnetosphere emission mechanism of the polar cap model, is systematically rejected by all the tests done. (author) [fr

Tools to identify linear combination of prognostic factors which maximizes area under receiver operator curve.

Science.gov (United States)

Todor, Nicolae; Todor, Irina; Săplăcan, Gavril

2014-01-01

The linear combination of variables is an attractive method in many medical analyses targeting a score to classify patients. In the case of ROC curves the most popular problem is to identify the linear combination which maximizes area under curve (AUC). This problem is complete closed when normality assumptions are met. With no assumption of normality search algorithm are avoided because it is accepted that we have to evaluate AUC n(d) times where n is the number of distinct observation and d is the number of variables. For d = 2, using particularities of AUC formula, we described an algorithm which lowered the number of evaluations of AUC from n(2) to n(n-1) + 1. For d > 2 our proposed solution is an approximate method by considering equidistant points on the unit sphere in R(d) where we evaluate AUC. The algorithms were applied to data from our lab to predict response of treatment by a set of molecular markers in cervical cancers patients. In order to evaluate the strength of our algorithms a simulation was added. In the case of no normality presented algorithms are feasible. For many variables computation time could be increased but acceptable.

Optimal algorithm for automatic detection of microaneurysms based on receiver operating characteristic curve

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lili; Luo, Shuqian

2010-11-01

Microaneurysms (MAs) are the first manifestations of the diabetic retinopathy (DR) as well as an indicator for its progression. Their automatic detection plays a key role for both mass screening and monitoring and is therefore in the core of any system for computer-assisted diagnosis of DR. The algorithm basically comprises the following stages: candidate detection aiming at extracting the patterns possibly corresponding to MAs based on mathematical morphological black top hat, feature extraction to characterize these candidates, and classification based on support vector machine (SVM), to validate MAs. Feature vector and kernel function of SVM selection is very important to the algorithm. We use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the distinguishing performance of different feature vectors and different kernel functions of SVM. The ROC analysis indicates the quadratic polynomial SVM with a combination of features as the input shows the best discriminating performance.

Face recognition in schizophrenia: do individual and average ROCs tell the same story?

Science.gov (United States)

Tiberghien, Guy; Martin, Clara; Baudouin, Jean-Yves; Franck, Nicolas; Guillaume, Fabrice; Huron, Caroline

2015-01-01

Many studies have shown that recollection process is impaired in patients with schizophrenia, whereas familiarity is generally spared. However, in these studies, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) presented is average ROC likely to mask individual differences. In the present study using a face-recognition task, we computed the individual ROC of patients with schizophrenia and control participants. Each group was divided into two subgroups on the basis of the type of recognition processes implemented: recognition based on familiarity only and recognition based on familiarity and recollection. The recognition performance of the schizophrenia patients was below that of the control participants only when recognition was based solely on familiarity. For the familiarity-alone patients, the score obtained on the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS) was correlated with the variance of the old-face familiarity. For the familiarity-recollection patients, the score obtained on the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS) was correlated with the decision criterion and with the old-face recollection probability. These results show that one cannot ascribe the impaired recognition observed in patients with schizophrenia to a recollection deficit alone. These results show that individual ROC can be used to distinguish between subtypes of schizophrenia and could serve as a basis for setting up specific cognitive remediation therapy for individuals with schizophrenia.

Influence of optic disc size on the diagnostic performance of macular ganglion cell complex and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer analyses in glaucoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Cordeiro, Daniela Valença; Lima, Verônica Castro; Castro, Dinorah P; Castro, Leonardo C; Pacheco, Maria Angélica; Lee, Jae Min; Dimantas, Marcelo I; Prata, Tiago Santos

2011-01-01

To evaluate the influence of optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of macular ganglion cell complex (GCC) and conventional peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) analyses provided by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) in glaucoma. Eighty-two glaucoma patients and 30 healthy subjects were included. All patients underwent GCC (7 × 7 mm macular grid, consisting of RNFL, ganglion cell and inner plexiform layers) and pRNFL thickness measurement (3.45 mm circular scan) by SD-OCT. One eye was randomly selected for analysis. Initially, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for different GCC and pRNFL parameters. The effect of disc area on the diagnostic accuracy of these parameters was evaluated using a logistic ROC regression model. Subsequently, 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mm(2) disc sizes were arbitrarily chosen (based on data distribution) and the predicted areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) and sensitivities were compared at fixed specificities for each. Average mean deviation index for glaucomatous eyes was -5.3 ± 5.2 dB. Similar AUCs were found for the best pRNFL (average thickness = 0.872) and GCC parameters (average thickness = 0.824; P = 0.19). The coefficient representing disc area in the ROC regression model was not statistically significant for average pRNFL thickness (-0.176) or average GCC thickness (0.088; P ≥ 0.56). AUCs for fixed disc areas (1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mm(2)) were 0.904, 0.891, and 0.875 for average pRNFL thickness and 0.834, 0.842, and 0.851 for average GCC thickness, respectively. The highest sensitivities - at 80% specificity for average pRNFL (84.5%) and GCC thicknesses (74.5%) - were found with disc sizes fixed at 1.5 mm(2) and 2.5 mm(2). Diagnostic accuracy was similar between pRNFL and GCC thickness parameters. Although not statistically significant, there was a trend for a better diagnostic accuracy of pRNFL thickness measurement in cases of smaller discs. For GCC analysis, an inverse effect

Evaluation of the optimal diagnostic criteria for regional lymph node metastases of lung cancer on MR imaging by receiver operating characteristic curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwai, Naomichi; Yamaguchi, Yutaka

1991-01-01

MRI was performed in 78 primary lung cancer cases to evaluate the optimal diagnostic criteria for regional lymph node metastases. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for 262 lymph nodes of the hilar and mediastinal regions showed that the optimal size criterion is 10 mm in the mean axis of nodal diameter. Employing this criterion, the diagnostic rates for hilar and mediastinal lymph nodes had a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 82%, and an overall accuracy of 79%. However, the diagnostic rates for subaortic, paraaortic, and hilar lymph nodes using the same criterion showed lower specificities than those for other nodes. It was suggested that evaluation by coronal section made the diagnosis for subaortic lymph nodes more precise. In the ROC curve analysis for each histologic type, it was thought that the optimal criterion for adenocarcinoma was 10 mm in the mean axis, and that the criteria for squamous cell carcinoma were 11 mm in the mean axis and 10 mm in the sort axis. (author)

Psychometric properties of the Dutch version of the Eating Disorder Inventory-3

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lehmann, V.; Ouwens, M.A.; Braeken, J.; Danner, U.N.; van Elburg, A.A.; Bekker, M.H.J.; Breurkens, A.; van Strien, T.

2013-01-01

The psychometric properties of the Dutch version of the Eating Disorder Inventory–3 (EDI-3) were tested in eating disordered patients (N = 514) using confirmatory factor analyses, variance decomposition, reliabilities, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Factorial validity

Design of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) study of 10:1 lossy image compression

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Cary A.; Lane, David; Frank, Mark S.; Hardy, Michael E.; Haynor, David R.; Smith, Donald V.; Parker, James E.; Bender, Gregory N.; Kim, Yongmin

1994-04-01

The digital archiving system at Madigan Army Medical Center (MAMC) uses a 10:1 lossy data compression algorithm for most forms of computed radiography. A systematic study on the potential effect of lossy image compression on patient care has been initiated with a series of studies focused on specific diagnostic tasks. The studies are based upon the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method of analysis for diagnostic systems. The null hypothesis is that observer performance with approximately 10:1 compressed and decompressed images is not different from using original, uncompressed images for detecting subtle pathologic findings seen on computed radiographs of bone, chest, or abdomen, when viewed on a high-resolution monitor. Our design involves collecting cases from eight pathologic categories. Truth is determined by committee using confirmatory studies performed during routine clinical practice whenever possible. Software has been developed to aid in case collection and to allow reading of the cases for the study using stand-alone Siemens Litebox workstations. Data analysis uses two methods, ROC analysis and free-response ROC (FROC) methods. This study will be one of the largest ROC/FROC studies of its kind and could benefit clinical radiology practice using PACS technology. The study design and results from a pilot FROC study are presented.

ROC analysis for evaluating the detectability of image unsharpness due to the patient's movement. Phantom study comparing preview and diagnostic LCDs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Rie; Shiraishi, Junji; Takamori, Miho; Watari, Chihiro

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the detectability of image unsharpness due to a patient's movement, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare the diagnostic and preview liquid-crystal displays (LCDs). Phantom images that simulated a patient's movement were obtained by using a moving metronome and acrylic plates with a computed radiography (CR) system. A total of 104 images were classified into five groups according to the degrees of image unsharpness determined based on the metronome velocity and exposure time. In an ROC observer study (n=6), a 2-megapixel diagnostic monochrome LCD (2M-LCD) and a 1.3-megapixel general color LCD for preview (1.3M-LCD) were compared in terms of the detection of image unsharpness due to the movement. A statistical test was performed using the multi-reader multi-case (MRMC) method. In the results, the average areas under the ROC curve values for the detection of image unsharpness using the 2M-LCD and 1.3M-LCD were 0.952 and 0.850, respectively. The detection of image unsharpness using the 2M-LCD was significantly better than that using the 1.3M-LCD (p<0.05). In addition, some images with slight unsharpness were identified correctly only using the 2M-LCD. The results suggest that the low-resolution LCD (id est (i.e.), the 1.3M-LCD for preview) had a limitation in identifying image unsharpness due to the patient's movement. Slight unsharpness could be missed in primary image checks performed on a preview monitor equipped with an imaging system. Therefore, the high-resolution LCD (i.e., a 2M-LCD) is necessary when using radiography for diagnostics. (author)

Plasma levels of intact and cleaved urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (uPAR) in men with clinically localised prostate cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Gitte; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Lippert, Solvej

2017-01-01

Aims: Lymph node metastasis (N1) is an adverse prognostic factor for men with clinically localised prostate cancer (PCa), but the prediction of N1 disease remains difficult. Urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (uPAR) plays an important role in angiogenesis and tumorigenesis. We analysed...... analysis and quantified using the areas under the ROC curve (AUC).Results: All soluble uPAR levels were significantly (p=0.03) higher in patients with N1 disease compared with patients with N0/x disease. ROC curves including clinical tumour stage, biopsy Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen and percent...

A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

Paired receiver operating characteristic curves and the effect of history on radiographic interpretation: CT of the head as a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, B.J.; Hanley, J.A.; Funkenstein, H.H.; Wallman, J.

1983-01-01

The use of a statistical technique for paired comparisons using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is illustrated by studying the extent to which clinical history altered the interpretation of computed tomographic (CT) examinations of the head. Eighty-nine CT examinations of the head were presented in random order to four readers, first with minimum history (age and sex) and then several weeks later with complete neutrological history as of the time the CT examination had been obtained. Using a paired ROC analysis, a small but significant (p < .05) improvement was detected for the interpretations in the presence of complete history; for readings without history the average area was 94.4% and for readings with history it was 97.7%

Experience Curves: A Tool for Energy Policy Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neij, Lena; Helby, Peter [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies; Dannemand Andersen, Per; Morthorst, Poul Erik [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark); Durstewitz, Michael; Hoppe-Kilpper, Martin [Inst. fuer Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.V., Kassel (DE); and others

2003-07-01

The objective of the project, Experience curves: a tool for energy policy assessment (EXTOOL), was to analyse the experience curve as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. This is of special interest, since the use of experience curves for the assessment of energy policy measures requires the development of the established experience curve methodology. This development raises several questions which have been addressed and analysed in this project. The analysis is based on case studies of wind power, an area with considerable experience in technology development, deployment and policy measures. Therefore, a case study based on wind power provides a good opportunity to study the usefulness of experience curves as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. However, the results are discussed in terms of using experience curves for the assessment of any energy technology. The project shows that experience curves can be used to assess the effect of combined policy measures in terms of cost reductions. Moreover, the result of the project show that experience curves could be used to analyse international 'learning systems', i.e. cost reductions brought about by the development of wind power and policy measures used in other countries. Nevertheless, the use of experience curves for the assessment of policy programmes has several limitations. First, the analysis and assessment of policy programmes cannot be achieved unless relevant experience curves based on good data can be developed. The authors are of the opinion that only studies that provide evidence of the validity, reliability and relevance of experience curves should be taken into account in policy making. Second, experience curves provide an aggregated picture of the situation and more detailed analysis of various sources of cost reduction, and cost reductions resulting from individual policy measures, requires additional data and analysis tools. Third, we do not recommend the use of

Incorporating experience curves in appliance standards analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desroches, Louis-Benoit; Garbesi, Karina; Kantner, Colleen; Van Buskirk, Robert; Yang, Hung-Chia

2013-01-01

There exists considerable evidence that manufacturing costs and consumer prices of residential appliances have decreased in real terms over the last several decades. This phenomenon is generally attributable to manufacturing efficiency gained with cumulative experience producing a certain good, and is modeled by an empirical experience curve. The technical analyses conducted in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have, until recently, assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. This assumption does not reflect real market price dynamics. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards analyses for these products. Including experience curves increases the national consumer net present value of potential standard levels. In some cases a potential standard level exhibits a net benefit when considering experience, whereas without experience it exhibits a net cost. These results highlight the importance of modeling more representative market prices. - Highlights: ► Past appliance standards analyses have assumed constant equipment prices. ► There is considerable evidence of consistent real price declines. ► We incorporate experience curves for several large appliances into the analysis. ► The revised analyses demonstrate larger net present values of potential standards. ► The results imply that past standards analyses may have undervalued benefits.

VGC analyzer: a software for statistical analysis of fully crossed multiple-reader multiple-case visual grading characteristics studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baath, Magnus; Hansson, Jonny

2016-01-01

Visual grading characteristics (VGC) analysis is a non-parametric rank-invariant method for analysis of visual grading data. In VGC analysis, image quality ratings for two different conditions are compared by producing a VGC curve, similar to how the ratings for normal and abnormal cases in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis are used to create an ROC curve. The use of established ROC software for the analysis of VGC data has therefore previously been proposed. However, the ROC analysis is based on the assumption of independence between normal and abnormal cases. In VGC analysis, this independence cannot always be assumed, e.g. if the ratings are based on the same patients imaged under both conditions. A dedicated software intended for analysis of VGC studies, which takes possible dependencies between ratings into account in the statistical analysis of a VGC study, has therefore been developed. The software-VGC Analyzer-determines the area under the VGC curve and its uncertainty using non-parametric re-sampling techniques. This article gives an introduction to VGC Analyzer, describes the types of analyses that can be performed and instructs the user about the input and output data. (authors)

Rapid identification and classification of bacteria by 16S rDNA restriction fragment melting curve analyses (RFMCA).

Science.gov (United States)

Rudi, Knut; Kleiberg, Gro H; Heiberg, Ragnhild; Rosnes, Jan T

2007-08-01

The aim of this work was to evaluate restriction fragment melting curve analyses (RFMCA) as a novel approach for rapid classification of bacteria during food production. RFMCA was evaluated for bacteria isolated from sous vide food products, and raw materials used for sous vide production. We identified four major bacterial groups in the material analysed (cluster I-Streptococcus, cluster II-Carnobacterium/Bacillus, cluster III-Staphylococcus and cluster IV-Actinomycetales). The accuracy of RFMCA was evaluated by comparison with 16S rDNA sequencing. The strains satisfying the RFMCA quality filtering criteria (73%, n=57), with both 16S rDNA sequence information and RFMCA data (n=45) gave identical group assignments with the two methods. RFMCA enabled rapid and accurate classification of bacteria that is database compatible. Potential application of RFMCA in the food or pharmaceutical industry will include development of classification models for the bacteria expected in a given product, and then to build an RFMCA database as a part of the product quality control.

Receiver-operating characteristic curves for somatic cell scores and California mastitis test in Valle del Belice dairy sheep.

Science.gov (United States)

Riggio, Valentina; Pesce, Lorenzo L; Morreale, Salvatore; Portolano, Baldassare

2013-06-01

Using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve methodology this study was designed to assess the diagnostic effectiveness of somatic cell count (SCC) and the California mastitis test (CMT) in Valle del Belice sheep, and to propose and evaluate threshold values for those tests that would optimally discriminate between healthy and infected udders. Milk samples (n=1357) were collected from 684 sheep in four flocks. The prevalence of infection, as determined by positive bacterial culture was 0.36, 87.7% of which were minor and 12.3% major pathogens. Of the culture negative samples, 83.7% had an SCCculture negative vs. infected), minor pathogen status (culture negative vs. infected with minor pathogens), major pathogen status (culture negative vs. infected with major pathogens), and CMT results were evaluated, the estimated area under the ROC curve was greater for glands infected with major compared to minor pathogens (0.88 vs. 0.73), whereas the area under the curve considering all pathogens was similar to the one for minor pathogens (0.75). The estimated optimal thresholds were 3.00 (CMT), 2.81 (SCS for the whole sample), 2.81 (SCS for minor pathogens), and 3.33 (SCS for major pathogens). These correctly classified, respectively, 69.0%, 73.5%, 72.6% and 91.0% of infected udders in the samples. The CMT appeared only to discriminate udders infected with major pathogens. In this population, SCS appeared to be the best indirect test of the bacteriological status of the udder. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mutations in the LRRK2 Roc-COR tandem domain link Parkinson's disease to Wnt signalling pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Sancho, Rosa M; Law, Bernard M H; Harvey, Kirsten

2009-10-15

Mutations in PARK8, encoding LRRK2, are the most common known cause of Parkinson's disease. The LRRK2 Roc-COR tandem domain exhibits GTPase activity controlling LRRK2 kinase activity via an intramolecular process. We report the interaction of LRRK2 with the dishevelled family of phosphoproteins (DVL1-3), key regulators of Wnt (Wingless/Int) signalling pathways important for axon guidance, synapse formation and neuronal maintenance. Interestingly, DVLs can interact with and mediate the activation of small GTPases with structural similarity to the LRRK2 Roc domain. The LRRK2 Roc-COR domain and the DVL1 DEP domain were necessary and sufficient for LRRK2-DVL1 interaction. Co-expression of DVL1 increased LRRK2 steady-state protein levels, an effect that was dependent on the DEP domain. Strikingly, LRRK2-DVL1-3 interactions were disrupted by the familial PARK8 mutation Y1699C, whereas pathogenic mutations at residues R1441 and R1728 strengthened LRRK2-DVL1 interactions. Co-expression of DVL1 with LRRK2 in mammalian cells resulted in the redistribution of LRRK2 to typical cytoplasmic DVL1 aggregates in HEK293 and SH-SY5Y cells and co-localization in neurites and growth cones of differentiated dopaminergic SH-SY5Y cells. This is the first report of the modulation of a key LRRK2-accessory protein interaction by PARK8 Roc-COR domain mutations segregating with Parkinson's disease. Since the DVL1 DEP domain is known to be involved in the regulation of small GTPases, we propose that: (i) DVLs may influence LRRK2 GTPase activity, and (ii) Roc-COR domain mutations modulating LRRK2-DVL interactions indirectly influence kinase activity. Our findings also link LRRK2 to Wnt signalling pathways, suggesting novel pathogenic mechanisms and new targets for genetic analysis in Parkinson's disease.

NEPTUNE'S DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE FROM KEPLER K2 OBSERVATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR BROWN DWARF LIGHT CURVE ANALYSES.

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Amy A; Rowe, Jason F; Gaulme, Patrick; Hammel, Heidi B; Casewell, Sarah L; Fortney, Jonathan J; Gizis, John E; Lissauer, Jack J; Morales-Juberias, Raul; Orton, Glenn S; Wong, Michael H; Marley, Mark S

2016-02-01

Observations of Neptune with the Kepler Space Telescope yield a 49 day light curve with 98% coverage at a 1 minute cadence. A significant signature in the light curve comes from discrete cloud features. We compare results extracted from the light curve data with contemporaneous disk-resolved imaging of Neptune from the Keck 10-m telescope at 1.65 microns and Hubble Space Telescope visible imaging acquired nine months later. This direct comparison validates the feature latitudes assigned to the K2 light curve periods based on Neptune's zonal wind profile, and confirms observed cloud feature variability. Although Neptune's clouds vary in location and intensity on short and long timescales, a single large discrete storm seen in Keck imaging dominates the K2 and Hubble light curves; smaller or fainter clouds likely contribute to short-term brightness variability. The K2 Neptune light curve, in conjunction with our imaging data, provides context for the interpretation of current and future brown dwarf and extrasolar planet variability measurements. In particular we suggest that the balance between large, relatively stable, atmospheric features and smaller, more transient, clouds controls the character of substellar atmospheric variability. Atmospheres dominated by a few large spots may show inherently greater light curve stability than those which exhibit a greater number of smaller features.

Diagnostic yield of ink-jet prints from digital radiographs for the assessment of approximal carious lesions: ROC-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulze, Ralf K.W.; Grimm, Stefanie; Schulze, Dirk; Voss, Kai; Keller, Hans-Peter; Wedel, Matthias

2011-01-01

Aims: To investigate the diagnostic quality of different quality, individually calibrated ink-jet printers for the very challenging dental radiographic task of approximal carious lesion detection. Materials and methods: A test-pattern evaluating resolution, contrast and homogeneity of the ink-jet prints was developed. 50 standardized dental radiographs each showing two neighbouring teeth in natural contact were printed on glossy paper with calibrated, randomly selected ink-jet printers (Canon S520 and iP4500, Epson Stylus Photo R2400). Printing size equalled the viewing size on a 17'' cathode-ray-tube monitor daily quality-tested according to German regulations. The true caries status was determined from serial sectioning and microscopic evaluation. 16 experienced observers evaluated the radiographs on a five-point confidence scale on all prints plus the viewing monitor with respect to the visibility of a carious lesion. A non-parametric Receiver-Operating Characteristics (ROC-) analysis was performed explicitly designed for the evaluation of readings stemming from identical samples but different modality. Significant differences are expressed by a critical ratio z exceeding ±2. Diagnostic accuracy was determined by the area (Az) underneath the ROC-curves. Results: Average Az-values ranged between 0.62 (S520 and R2400) and 0.64 (monitor, iP4500), with no significant difference between modalities (P = 0.172). Neither significant (range mean z: -0.40 (S520) and -0.11 (iP4500)) nor clinically relevant differences were found between printers and viewing monitor. Conclusions: Our results for a challenging task in dental radiography indicate that calibrated, off-the-shelf ink-jet printers are able to reproduce (dental) radiographs at quality levels sufficient for radiographic diagnosis in a typical dental working environment.

Diagnostic yield of ink-jet prints from digital radiographs for the assessment of approximal carious lesions: ROC-analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schulze, Ralf K.W., E-mail: rschulze@mail.uni-mainz.de [Poliklinik fuer Zahnaerztliche Chirurgie, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University, Augustusplatz 2, D-55131 Mainz (Germany); Grimm, Stefanie, E-mail: StefanieGrimm@gmx.de [Poliklinik fuer Zahnaerztliche Chirurgie, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University, Augustusplatz 2, D-55131 Mainz (Germany); Schulze, Dirk, E-mail: dirk.schulze@uniklinik-freiburg.de [Klinik fuer Mund,- Kiefer- und Gesichtschirurgie, Sektion Roentgen, Universitaetsklinikum Freiburg, Hugstetterstr. 55, D-79106 Freiburg (Germany); Voss, Kai, E-mail: zahnarzt@drvoss.eu [Zahnaerztekammer Schleswig-Holstein, Vorstand fuer Praxisfuehrung, Westring 496, D- 24106 Kiel (Germany); Keller, Hans-Peter, E-mail: hans-peter.keller@din.de [NA Dental (NADENT) im DIN, Alexander-Wellendorff-Str. 2, D-75172 Pforzheim (Germany); Wedel, Matthias, E-mail: matthias.wedel@siemens.com [Siemens AG, Medical Solutions, Postfach 32 60, D-91050 Erlangen (Germany)

2011-08-15

Aims: To investigate the diagnostic quality of different quality, individually calibrated ink-jet printers for the very challenging dental radiographic task of approximal carious lesion detection. Materials and methods: A test-pattern evaluating resolution, contrast and homogeneity of the ink-jet prints was developed. 50 standardized dental radiographs each showing two neighbouring teeth in natural contact were printed on glossy paper with calibrated, randomly selected ink-jet printers (Canon S520 and iP4500, Epson Stylus Photo R2400). Printing size equalled the viewing size on a 17'' cathode-ray-tube monitor daily quality-tested according to German regulations. The true caries status was determined from serial sectioning and microscopic evaluation. 16 experienced observers evaluated the radiographs on a five-point confidence scale on all prints plus the viewing monitor with respect to the visibility of a carious lesion. A non-parametric Receiver-Operating Characteristics (ROC-) analysis was performed explicitly designed for the evaluation of readings stemming from identical samples but different modality. Significant differences are expressed by a critical ratio z exceeding {+-}2. Diagnostic accuracy was determined by the area (Az) underneath the ROC-curves. Results: Average Az-values ranged between 0.62 (S520 and R2400) and 0.64 (monitor, iP4500), with no significant difference between modalities (P = 0.172). Neither significant (range mean z: -0.40 (S520) and -0.11 (iP4500)) nor clinically relevant differences were found between printers and viewing monitor. Conclusions: Our results for a challenging task in dental radiography indicate that calibrated, off-the-shelf ink-jet printers are able to reproduce (dental) radiographs at quality levels sufficient for radiographic diagnosis in a typical dental working environment.

Methodology for quantitative evalution of diagnostic performance. Project III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.E.

1985-01-01

Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) methodology is now widely recognized as the most satisfactory approach to the problem of measuring and specifying the performance of a diagnostic procedure. The primary advantage of ROC analysis over alternative methodologies is that it seperates differences in diagnostic accuracy that are due to actual differences in discrimination capacity from those that are due to decision threshold effects. Our effort during the past year has been devoted to developing digital computer programs for fitting ROC curves to diagnostic data by maximum likelihood estimation and to developing meaningful and valid statistical tests for assessing the significance of apparent differences between measured ROC curves. FORTRAN programs previously written here for ROC curve fitting and statistical testing have been refined to make them easier to use and to allow them to be run in a large variety of computer systems. We have attempted also to develop two new curve-fitting programs: one for conventional ROC data that assumes a different functional form for the ROC curve, and one that can be used for ''free-response'' ROC data. Finally, we have cooperated with other investigators to apply our techniques to analyze ROC data generated in clinical studies, and we have sought to familiarize the medical community with the advantages of ROC methodology. 36 ref

Comparative SAXS and DSC study on stratum corneum structural organization in an epidermal cell culture model (ROC)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuntsche, Judith; Herre, Angela; Fahr, Alfred

2013-01-01

barrier similar to that of human stratum corneum is, however, a prerequisite. In this study, the stratum corneum lipid organization in an epidermal cell culture model based on rat epidermal keratinocytes (REK organotypic culture, ROC) was investigated by small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in dependence......Cell cultured skin equivalents present an alternative for dermatological in vitro evaluations of drugs and excipients as they provide the advantage of availability, lower variability and higher assay robustness compared to native skin. For penetration/permeation studies, an adequate stratum corneum...... and SC lipid organization. Cultivation for 21days resulted in further minor changes in the structural organization of ROC SC. The SAXS patterns of ROC SC had overall large similarities with that of human SC and point to the presence of a long periodicity phase with a repeat distance of about 122Å, e...

Computer quantification of “angle of collapse” on maximum expiratory flow volume curve for diagnosing asthma-COPD overlap syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang W

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Wei Wang, Mengshuang Xie, Shuang Dou, Liwei Cui, Wei Xiao Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China Background: In a previous study, we demonstrated that asthma patients with signs of emphysema on quantitative computed tomography (CT fulfill the diagnosis of asthma-COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS. However, quantitative CT measurements of emphysema are not routinely available for patients with chronic airway disease, which limits their application. Spirometry was a widely used examination tool in clinical settings and shows emphysema as a sharp angle in the maximum expiratory flow volume (MEFV curve, called the “angle of collapse (AC”. The aim of this study was to investigate the value of the AC in the diagnosis of emphysema and ACOS. Methods: This study included 716 participants: 151 asthma patients, 173 COPD patients, and 392 normal control subjects. All the participants underwent pulmonary function tests. COPD and asthma patients also underwent quantitative CT measurements of emphysema. The AC was measured using computer models based on Matlab software. The value of the AC in the diagnosis of emphysema and ACOS was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis. Results: The AC of COPD patients was significantly lower than that of asthma patients and control subjects. The AC was significantly negatively correlated with emphysema index (EI; r=-0.666, P<0.001, and patients with high EI had a lower AC than those with low EI. The ROC curve analysis showed that the AC had higher diagnostic efficiency for high EI (area under the curve =0.876 than did other spirometry parameters. In asthma patients, using the AC ≤137° as a surrogate criterion for the diagnosis of ACOS, the sensitivity and specificity were 62.5% and 89.1%, respectively. Conclusion: The AC on the MEFV curve quantified by computer models correlates with the extent of emphysema. The AC may become a

ROCS: a Reproducibility Index and Confidence Score for Interaction Proteomics Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dazard Jean-Eudes

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Affinity-Purification Mass-Spectrometry (AP-MS provides a powerful means of identifying protein complexes and interactions. Several important challenges exist in interpreting the results of AP-MS experiments. First, the reproducibility of AP-MS experimental replicates can be low, due both to technical variability and the dynamic nature of protein interactions in the cell. Second, the identification of true protein-protein interactions in AP-MS experiments is subject to inaccuracy due to high false negative and false positive rates. Several experimental approaches can be used to mitigate these drawbacks, including the use of replicated and control experiments and relative quantification to sensitively distinguish true interacting proteins from false ones. Methods To address the issues of reproducibility and accuracy of protein-protein interactions, we introduce a two-step method, called ROCS, which makes use of Indicator Prey Proteins to select reproducible AP-MS experiments, and of Confidence Scores to select specific protein-protein interactions. The Indicator Prey Proteins account for measures of protein identifiability as well as protein reproducibility, effectively allowing removal of outlier experiments that contribute noise and affect downstream inferences. The filtered set of experiments is then used in the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI scoring step. Prey protein scoring is done by computing a Confidence Score, which accounts for the probability of occurrence of prey proteins in the bait experiments relative to the control experiment, where the significance cutoff parameter is estimated by simultaneously controlling false positives and false negatives against metrics of false discovery rate and biological coherence respectively. In summary, the ROCS method relies on automatic objective criterions for parameter estimation and error-controlled procedures. Results We illustrate the performance of our method by applying

Influence of optic disc size on the diagnostic performance of macular ganglion cell complex and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer analyses in glaucoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cordeiro DV

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Daniela Valença Cordeiro1, Verônica Castro Lima1,2, Dinorah P Castro1,3, Leonardo C Castro1,3, Maria Angélica Pacheco2, Jae Min Lee2, Marcelo I Dimantas2, Tiago Santos Prata1,21Department of Ophthalmology, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, 2Hospital Medicina dos Olhos, São Paulo, 3Centro Brasileiro de Especialidades Oftalmológicas, Araraquara, BrazilAim: To evaluate the influence of optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of macular ganglion cell complex (GCC and conventional peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL analyses provided by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT in glaucoma.Methods: Eighty-two glaucoma patients and 30 healthy subjects were included. All patients underwent GCC (7 × 7 mm macular grid, consisting of RNFL, ganglion cell and inner plexiform layers and pRNFL thickness measurement (3.45 mm circular scan by SD-OCT. One eye was randomly selected for analysis. Initially, receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves were generated for different GCC and pRNFL parameters. The effect of disc area on the diagnostic accuracy of these parameters was evaluated using a logistic ROC regression model. Subsequently, 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mm2 disc sizes were arbitrarily chosen (based on data distribution and the predicted areas under the ROC curves (AUCs and sensitivities were compared at fixed specificities for each.Results: Average mean deviation index for glaucomatous eyes was -5.3 ± 5.2 dB. Similar AUCs were found for the best pRNFL (average thickness = 0.872 and GCC parameters (average thickness = 0.824; P = 0.19.The coefficient representing disc area in the ROC regression model was not statistically significant for average pRNFL thickness (-0.176 or average GCC thickness (0.088; P ≥ 0.56. AUCs for fixed disc areas (1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mm2 were 0.904, 0.891, and 0.875 for average pRNFL thickness and 0.834, 0.842, and 0.851 for average GCC thickness, respectively. The highest sensitivities – at

The use of running integrated difference curves for analysing momentum distributions from positron annihilation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, C.F.

1979-01-01

In positron annihilation measurements it is often necessary to compare annihilation line shapes or angular distributions obtained from a single sample subjected to different experimental conditions, or from a range of samples subjected to different mechanical or metallurgical treatments. The difference of the normalised distributions provides a convenient, easily visualised, and comprehensive summary of the experimental results. Changes in the shape of these difference curves can be shown to arise only when within the material under examination competition occurs between different types of positron trap. Some of the factors affecting the shape of these difference curves are discussed in terms of trapping model concepts. By using the running integrals of the difference curves (RID curves) a representation is obtained which is very little affected by the number of channels spanning the line, provided that there are enough, leads naturally to an optimised determination of the line shape parameter S, leads to the definition of a number of parameters related to the shape of the difference curve and has well defined statistical properties. Examples of RID curves show the range of shapes encountered, shape changes associated with competition between different types of positron trap, and artefact shapes associated with rate dependent effects in the detector and electronics. (orig.) [de

Perspective Biological Markers for Autism Spectrum Disorders: Advantages of the Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves in Evaluating Marker Sensitivity and Specificity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Provvidenza M. Abruzzo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders. Recognized causes of ASD include genetic factors, metabolic diseases, toxic and environmental factors, and a combination of these. Available tests fail to recognize genetic abnormalities in about 70% of ASD children, where diagnosis is solely based on behavioral signs and symptoms, which are difficult to evaluate in very young children. Although it is advisable that specific psychotherapeutic and pedagogic interventions are initiated as early as possible, early diagnosis is hampered by the lack of nongenetic specific biological markers. In the past ten years, the scientific literature has reported dozens of neurophysiological and biochemical alterations in ASD children; however no real biomarker has emerged. Such literature is here reviewed in the light of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis, a very valuable statistical tool, which evaluates the sensitivity and the specificity of biomarkers to be used in diagnostic decision making. We also apply ROC analysis to some of our previously published data and discuss the increased diagnostic value of combining more variables in one ROC curve analysis. We also discuss the use of biomarkers as a tool for advancing our understanding of nonsyndromic ASD.

"Meta-analyses and P-curves support robust cycle shifts in women's mate preferences: Reply to Wood and Carden (2014) and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014)": Correction to Gildersleeve, Haselton, and Fales (2014).

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-01

Reports an error in "Meta-analyses and p -curves support robust cycle shifts in women's mate preferences: Reply to Wood and Carden (2014) and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014)" by Kelly Gildersleeve, Martie G. Haselton and Melissa R. Fales ( Psychological Bulletin , 2014[Sep], Vol 140[5], 1272-1280). In the article, all p -curve analyses examining the Context Moderation Hypothesis Prediction mistakenly included the p-value from Little, Jones, Burt, & Perrett (2007) Study 2 for the simple effect of fertility on attraction to facial symmetry in a short-term relationship context ( p < .001). The analyses should have instead included the p -value for the fertility X relationship context interaction ( p = .011). In addition, the p -curve analyses examining exact two-tailed p -values for the Cycle Shift Prediction should have included an additional p -value from Provost et al. (2008) Study 1 for the main effect of fertility on attraction to gait masculinity. The reported p -value for this effect was .05, making it ineligible for inclusion in p -curves of reported p-values. However, the exact recalculated two-tailed p -value was .049, making it eligible for inclusion in p -curves of exact p -values. The corrected p -curve of exact two-tailed p -values evaluating the Cycle Shift Prediction and Context Moderation Prediction (displayed in Figure 2) now includes a total of 15 p -values ( N = 1442) is no longer significantly right skewed χ²(30) = 41.25, p = .08. The corrected p -curve of exact two-tailed p -values evaluating the Cycle Shift Prediction, Context Moderation Prediction, and Partner Qualities Moderation Prediction (displayed in Figure 3) now includes a total of 21 p -values ( N = 1707) and continues to be significantly right skewed Χ²(42) = 69.83, p = .004. As part of this correction, the online supplemental materials have been updated. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2014-35938-003.) Two meta-analyses evaluated shifts across

MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf

2018-01-01

MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA

Lesion type and reader experience affect the diagnostic accuracy of breast MRI: A multiple reader ROC study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baltzer, Pascal A.T., E-mail: patbaltzer@gmail.com [Department of Biomedical Imaging and Imge-guided Therapy, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Kaiser, Werner Alois [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Jena, Erlanger Allee 101, 07740 Jena (Germany); Dietzel, Matthias, E-mail: dietzelmatthias2@hotmail.com [Department of Neuroradiology, University Hospital Erlangen, Schwabachanlage 6, 91054 Erlangen (Germany)

2015-01-15

Highlights: • The main findings of our study are, that reader experience and lesion type (i.e., mass versus non-mass enhancement) are independent predictors of the diagnostic accuracy of breast MRI. • Specifically, benign and malignant non-mass lesions cannot be differentiated with sufficient accuracy, especially if readers are not experienced. • We conclude that future research in breast MRI should focus on non-mass lesions, as these are the problem makers in modern breast MRI. - Abstract: Purpose: To evaluate the influence of lesion type (mass versus non-mass) and reader experience on the diagnostic performance of breast MRI (BMRI) in a non-screening setting. Materials and methods: Consecutive patients (mean age, 55 ± 12 years) with breast lesions that were verified by biopsy or surgery, and who had had BMRI as part of their diagnostic workup, were eligible for this retrospective single-center study. Cancers diagnosed by biopsy before BMRI were excluded to eliminate biological and interpretation bias due to biopsy or chemotherapy effects (n = 103). Six blinded readers (experience level, high (HE, n = 2); intermediate (IE, n = 2); and low (LE, n = 2)) evaluated all examinations and assigned independent MRI BI-RADS ratings. Lesion type (mass, non-mass, focal) was noted. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and logistic regression analysis was performed to compare diagnostic accuracies. Results: There were 259 histologically verified lesions (123 malignant, 136 benign) investigated. There were 169 mass (103 malignant, 66 benign) and 48 non-mass lesions (19 malignant, 29 benign). Another 42 lesions that met the inclusion criteria were biopsied due to conventional findings (i.e., microcalcifications, architectural distortions), but did not enhance on MRI (41 benign, one DCIS). ROC analysis revealed a total area under the curve (AUC) between 0.834 (LE) and 0.935 (HI). Logistic regression identified a significant effect of non-mass lesions (P < 0.0001) and

Can adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes be predicted when blood pressure becomes elevated? Secondary analyses from the CHIPS (Control of Hypertension In Pregnancy Study) randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Magee, Laura A; von Dadelszen, Peter; Singer, Joel; Lee, Terry; Rey, Evelyne; Ross, Susan; Asztalos, Elizabeth; Murphy, Kellie E; Menzies, Jennifer; Sanchez, Johanna; Gafni, Amiram; Gruslin, Andrée; Helewa, Michael; Hutton, Eileen; Lee, Shoo K; Logan, Alexander G; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Welch, Ross; Thornton, Jim G; Moutquin, Jean Marie

2016-07-01

For women with chronic or gestational hypertension in CHIPS (Control of Hypertension In Pregnancy Study, NCT01192412), we aimed to examine whether clinical predictors collected at randomization could predict adverse outcomes. This was a planned, secondary analysis of data from the 987 women in the CHIPS Trial. Logistic regression was used to examine the impact of 19 candidate predictors on the probability of adverse perinatal (pregnancy loss or high level neonatal care for >48 h, or birthweight hypertension, preeclampsia, or delivery at blood pressure within 1 week before randomization. Continuous variables were represented continuously or dichotomized based on the smaller p-value in univariate analyses. An area-under-the-receiver-operating-curve (AUC ROC) of ≥0.70 was taken to reflect a potentially useful model. Point estimates for AUC ROC were hypertension (0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.74) and delivery at hypertension develop an elevated blood pressure in pregnancy, or formerly normotensive women develop new gestational hypertension, maternal and current pregnancy clinical characteristics cannot predict adverse outcomes in the index pregnancy. © 2016 The Authors. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology (NFOG).

Item Strength Influences Source Confidence and Alters Source Memory zROC Slopes

Science.gov (United States)

Starns, Jeffrey J.; Ksander, John C.

2016-01-01

Increasing the number of study trials creates a crossover pattern in source memory zROC slopes; that is, the slope is either below or above 1 depending on which source receives stronger learning. This pattern can be produced if additional learning affects memory processes such as the relative contribution of recollection and familiarity to source…

Surrogacy of progression free survival for overall survival in metastatic breast cancer studies: Meta-analyses of published studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kundu, Madan G; Acharyya, Suddhasatta

2017-02-01

PFS is often used as a surrogate endpoint for OS in metastatic breast cancer studies. We have evaluated the association of treatment effect on PFS with significant HR OS (and how this association is affected by other factors) in published prospective metastatic breast cancer studies. A systematic literature search in PubMed identified prospective metastatic breast cancer studies. Treatment effects on PFS were determined using hazard ratio (HR PFS ), increase in median PFS (ΔMED PFS ) and % increase in median PFS (%ΔMED PFS ). Diagnostic accuracy of PFS measures (HR PFS , ΔMED PFS and %ΔMED PFS ) in predicting significant HR OS was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and classification tree approach (CART). Seventy-four cases (i.e., treatment to control comparisons) from 65 individual publications were identified for the analyses. Of these, 16 cases reported significant treatment effect on HR OS at 5% level of significance. Median number of deaths reported in these cases were 153. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) for diagnostic measures as HR PFS , ΔMED PFS and %ΔMED PFS were 0.69, 0.70 and 0.75, respectively. Classification tree results identified %ΔMED PFS and number of deaths as diagnostic measure for significant HR OS . Only 7.9% (3/39) cases with ΔMED PFS shorter than 48.27% reported significant HR OS . There were 7 cases with ΔMED PFS of 48.27% or more and number of deaths reported as 227 or more - of these 5 cases reported significant HR OS . %ΔMED PFS was found to be a better diagnostic measure for predicting significant HR OS . Our analysis results also suggest that consideration of total number of deaths may further improve its diagnostic performance. Based on our study results, the studies with 50% improvement in median PFS are more likely to produce significant HR OS if the total number of OS events at the time of analysis is 227 or more. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Byung Do

2006-01-01

During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

SAG/ROC-SCFβ-TrCP E3 Ubiquitin Ligase Promotes Pro-Caspase-3 Degradation as a Mechanism of Apoptosis Protection

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Mingjia Tan

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Skp1-cullin-F-box protein (SCF is a multicomponent E3 ubiquitin (Ub ligase that ubiquitinates a number of important biologic molecules such as p27, β-catenin, and lκB for proteasomal degradation, thus regulating cell proliferation and survival. One SCF component, SAG/ROC2/Rbx2/Hrt2, a RING finger protein, was first identified as a redox-inducible protein, which, when overexpressed, inhibited apoptosis both in vitro and in vivo. We report here that sensitive to apoptosis gene (SAG, as well as its family member ROC1/Rbxi, bound to the proinactive form of caspase-3 (pro-caspase-3. Binding was likely mediated through F-box protein, β-transducin repeat-containing protein (β-TrCP, which binds to the first 38 amino acids of pro-caspase-3. Importantly, β-TrCP1 expression significantly shortened the protein half-life of pro-caspase-3, whereas expression of a dominant-negative β-TrCP1 mutant with the F-box domain deleted extended it. An in vitro ubiquitination assay showed that SAG/ROC-SCF -Trcp promoted ubiquitination of pro-caspase-3. Furthermore, endogenous levels of pro-caspase-3 were decreased by overexpression of SAG/ROC-SCFβ-TrCP E3 Ub ligases, but increased on siRNA silencing of SAG, regulator of cullin-1 (ROC1, or β-TrCPs, leading to increased apoptosis by etoposide and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand through increased activation of caspase-3. Thus, pro-caspase-3 appears to be a substrate of SAG/ROC-SCFβ-TrCP E3 Ub ligase, which protects cells from apoptosis through increased apoptosis threshold by reducing the basal level of pro-caspase-3.

A Three-Dimensional Receiver Operator Characteristic Surface Diagnostic Metric

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Donald L.

2011-01-01

Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves are commonly applied as metrics for quantifying the performance of binary fault detection systems. An ROC curve provides a visual representation of a detection system s True Positive Rate versus False Positive Rate sensitivity as the detection threshold is varied. The area under the curve provides a measure of fault detection performance independent of the applied detection threshold. While the standard ROC curve is well suited for quantifying binary fault detection performance, it is not suitable for quantifying the classification performance of multi-fault classification problems. Furthermore, it does not provide a measure of diagnostic latency. To address these shortcomings, a novel three-dimensional receiver operator characteristic (3D ROC) surface metric has been developed. This is done by generating and applying two separate curves: the standard ROC curve reflecting fault detection performance, and a second curve reflecting fault classification performance. A third dimension, diagnostic latency, is added giving rise to 3D ROC surfaces. Applying numerical integration techniques, the volumes under and between the surfaces are calculated to produce metrics of the diagnostic system s detection and classification performance. This paper will describe the 3D ROC surface metric in detail, and present an example of its application for quantifying the performance of aircraft engine gas path diagnostic methods. Metric limitations and potential enhancements are also discussed

Class-specific Error Bounds for Ensemble Classifiers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prenger, R; Lemmond, T; Varshney, K; Chen, B; Hanley, W

2009-10-06

The generalization error, or probability of misclassification, of ensemble classifiers has been shown to be bounded above by a function of the mean correlation between the constituent (i.e., base) classifiers and their average strength. This bound suggests that increasing the strength and/or decreasing the correlation of an ensemble's base classifiers may yield improved performance under the assumption of equal error costs. However, this and other existing bounds do not directly address application spaces in which error costs are inherently unequal. For applications involving binary classification, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, performance curves that explicitly trade off false alarms and missed detections, are often utilized to support decision making. To address performance optimization in this context, we have developed a lower bound for the entire ROC curve that can be expressed in terms of the class-specific strength and correlation of the base classifiers. We present empirical analyses demonstrating the efficacy of these bounds in predicting relative classifier performance. In addition, we specify performance regions of the ROC curve that are naturally delineated by the class-specific strengths of the base classifiers and show that each of these regions can be associated with a unique set of guidelines for performance optimization of binary classifiers within unequal error cost regimes.

Direct Analysis of JV-Curves Applied to an Outdoor-Degrading CdTe Module (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jordan, D; Kurtz, S.; Ulbrich, C.; Gerber, A.; Rau, U.

2014-03-01

We present the application of a phenomenological four parameter equation to fit and analyze regularly measured current density-voltage JV curves of a CdTe module during 2.5 years of outdoor operation. The parameters are physically meaningful, i.e. the short circuit current density Jsc, open circuit voltage Voc and differential resistances Rsc, and Roc. For the chosen module, the fill factor FF degradation overweighs the degradation of Jsc and Voc. Interestingly, with outdoor exposure, not only the conductance at short circuit, Gsc, increases but also the Gsc(Jsc)-dependence. This is well explained with an increase in voltage dependent charge carrier collection in CdTe.

Differentiation between microcystin contaminated and uncontaminated fish by determination of unconjugated MCs using an ELISA anti-Adda test based on receiver-operating characteristic curves threshold values: application to Tinca tinca from natural ponds.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, Isabel María; Herrador, M Ángeles; Atencio, Loyda; Puerto, María; González, A Gustavo; Cameán, Ana María

2011-02-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) anti-Adda technique could be used to monitor free microcystins (MCs) in biological samples from fish naturally exposed to toxic cyanobacteria by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve software to establish an optimal cut-off value for MCs. The cut-off value determined by ROC curve analysis in tench (Tinca tinca) exposed to MCs under laboratory conditions by ROC curve analysis was 5.90-μg MCs/kg tissue dry weight (d.w.) with a sensitivity of 93.3%. This value was applied in fish samples from natural ponds (Extremadura, Spain) in order to asses its potential MCs bioaccumulation by classifying samples as either true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN), or false negative (FN). In this work, it has been demonstrated that toxic cyanobacteria, mainly Microcystis aeruginosa, Aphanizomenon issatchenkoi, and Anabaena spiroides, were present in two of these ponds, Barruecos de Abajo (BDown) and Barruecos de Arriba (BUp). The MCs levels were detected in waters from both ponds with an anti-MC-LR ELISA immunoassay and were of similar values (between 3.8-6.5-μg MC-LR equivalent/L in BDown pond and 4.8-6.0-μg MC-LR equivalent/L in BUp). The MCs cut-off values were applied in livers from fish collected from these two ponds using the ELISA anti-Adda technique. A total of 83% of samples from BDown pond and only 42% from BUp were TP with values of free MCs higher than 8.8-μg MCs/kg tissue (d.w.). Copyright © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A proposal for a new Brazilian six-item version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maicon Rodrigues Albuquerque

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Factor analysis of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS could result in a shorter and easier to handle screening tool. Therefore, the aim of this study was to check and compare the metrics of two different 6-item EPDS subscales. Methods: We administered the EPDS to a total of 3,891 women who had given birth between 1 and 3 months previously. We conducted confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses and plotted receiver-operating characteristics (ROC curves to, respectively, determine construct validity, scale items' fit to the data, and ideal cutoff scores for the short versions. Results: A previously defined 6-item scale did not exhibit construct validity for our sample. Nevertheless, we used exploratory factor analysis to derive a new 6-item scale with very good construct validity. The area under the ROC curve of the new 6-item scale was 0.986 and the ideal cutoff score was ≥ 6. Conclusions: The new 6-item scale has adequate psychometric properties and similar ROC curve values to the10-item version and offers a means of reducing the cost and time taken to administer the instrument.

Pulmonary nodule characterization: A comparison of conventional with quantitative and visual semi-quantitative analyses using contrast enhancement maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petkovska, Iva; Shah, Sumit K.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.; Goldin, Jonathan G.; Brown, Matthew S.; Kim, Hyun J.; Brown, Kathleen; Aberle, Denise R.

2006-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether conventional nodule densitometry or analysis based on contrast enhancement maps of indeterminate lung nodules imaged with contrast-enhanced CT can distinguish benign from malignant lung nodules. Materials and method: Thin section, contrast-enhanced CT (baseline, and post-contrast series acquired at 45, 90,180, and 360 s) was performed on 29 patients with indeterminate lung nodules (14 benign, 15 malignant). A thoracic radiologist identified the boundary of each nodule using semi-automated contouring to form a 3D region-of-interest (ROI) on each image series. The post-contrast series having the maximum mean enhancement was then volumetrically registered to the baseline series. The two series were subtracted volumetrically and the subtracted voxels were quantized into seven color-coded bins, forming a contrast enhancement map (CEM). Conventional nodule densitometry was performed to obtain the maximum difference in mean enhancement values for each nodule from a circular ROI. Three thoracic radiologists performed visual semi-quantitative analysis of each nodule, scoring each map for: (a) magnitude and (b) heterogeneity of enhancement throughout the entire volume of the nodule on a five-point scale. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted on these features to evaluate their diagnostic efficacy. Finally, 14 quantitative texture features were calculated for each map. A statistical analysis was performed to combine the 14 texture features to a single factor. ROC analysis of the derived aggregate factor was done as an indicator of malignancy. All features were analyzed for differences between benign and malignant nodules. Results: Using 15 HU as a threshold, 93% (14/15) of malignant and 79% (11/14) of benign nodules demonstrated enhancement. The ROC curve when higher values of enhancement indicate malignancy was generated and area under the curve (AUC) was 0.76. The visually scored magnitude of enhancement was found to be

Characteristics of time-activity curves obtained from dynamic 11C-methionine PET in common primary brain tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Nomura, Yuichi; Asano, Yoshitaka; Shinoda, Jun; Yano, Hirohito; Ikegame, Yuka; Kawasaki, Tomohiro; Nakayama, Noriyuki; Maruyama, Takashi; Muragaki, Yoshihiro; Iwama, Toru

2018-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess whether dynamic PET with 11 C-methionine (MET) (MET-PET) is useful in the diagnosis of brain tumors. One hundred sixty patients with brain tumors (139 gliomas, 9 meningiomas, 4 hemangioblastomas and 8 primary central nervous system lymphomas [PCNSL]) underwent dynamic MET-PET with a 3-dimensional acquisition mode, and the maximum tumor MET-standardized uptake value (MET-SUV) was measured consecutively to construct a time-activity curve (TAC). Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated from the time-to-peak (TTP) and the slope of the curve in the late phase (SLOPE). The TAC patterns of MET-SUVs (MET-TACs) could be divided into four characteristic types when MET dynamics were analyzed by dividing the MET-TAC into three phases. MET-SUVs were significantly higher in early and late phases in glioblastoma compared to anaplastic astrocytoma, diffuse astrocytoma and the normal frontal cortex (P dynamic MET-PET study could be helpful in the non-invasive discrimination of brain tumor subtypes, in particular gliomas.

Psychometric Properties of the Dutch Version of the Eating Disorder Inventory–3

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Vicky Lehmann

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The psychometric properties of the Dutch version of the Eating Disorder Inventory–3 (EDI-3 were tested in eating disordered patients (N = 514 using confirmatory factor analyses, variance decomposition, reliabilities, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analyses. Factorial validity results supported the 12 subscales, but model fit was impaired by correlated item errors, misallocated items, and redundant subscales. At the composite level, the Bulimia subscale was identified as a largely specific source of information that did not contribute much to its overarching composite. Reliabilities for subscales and composites ranged from .6 to .9. ROC curve analysis indicated good to excellent discriminative ability of the EDI-3 identifying clinical subjects against a reference group. In conclusion, further revisions of the EDI-3 might target the item allocation and (over-differentiation of subscales and composites to further clarify its structure. For the clinical practice, we advise the careful use of the EDI-3, although it might serve as a good screening tool.

Preparation of Kepler light curves for asteroseismic analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

García, R.A.; Hekker, S.; Stello, D.; Gutiérrez-Soto, J.; Handberg, R.; Huber, D.; Karoff, C.; Uytterhoeven, K.; Appourchaux, T.; Chaplin, W.J.; Elsworth, Y.; Mathur, S.; Ballot, J.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.; Gilliland, R.L.; Houdek, G.; Jenkins, J.M.; Kjeldsen, H.; McCauliff, S.; Metcalfe, T.; Middour, C.K.; Molenda-Zakowicz, J.; Monteiro, M.J.P.F.G.; Smith, J.C.; Thompson, M.J.

2011-01-01

The Kepler mission is providing photometric data of exquisite quality for the asteroseismic study of different classes of pulsating stars. These analyses place particular demands on the pre-processing of the data, over a range of time-scales from minutes to months. Here, we describe processing

Clinical relevance of the ROC and free-response paradigms for comparing imaging system efficacies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, D. P.

2010-01-01

Observer performance studies are widely used to assess medical imaging systems. Unlike technical/engineering measurements observer performance include the entire imaging chain and the radiologist. However, the widely used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method ignores lesion localisation information. The free-response ROC (FROC) method uses the location information to appropriately reward or penalise correct or incorrect localizations, respectively. This paper describes a method for improving the clinical relevance of FROC studies. The method consists of assigning appropriate risk values to the different lesions that may be present on a single image. A high-risk lesion is one that is critical to detect and act upon, and is assigned a higher risk value than a low-risk lesion, one that is relatively innocuous. Instead of simply counting the number of lesions that are detected, as is done in conventional FROC analysis, a risk-weighted count is used. This has the advantage of rewarding detections of high-risk lesions commensurately more than detections of lower risk lesions. Simulations were used to demonstrate that the new method, termed case-based analysis, results in a higher figure of merit for an expert who detects more high-risk lesions than a naive observer who detects more low-risk lesions, even though both detect the same total number of lesions. Conventional free-response analysis is unable to distinguish between the two types of observers. This paper also comments on the issue of clinical relevance of ROC analysis vs. FROC for tasks that involve lesion localisation. (authors)

iROCS: Integrated accident management framework for coping with beyond-design-basis external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jaewhan; Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Yang, Joon-Eon

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An integrated mitigating strategy to cope with extreme external events, iROCS, is proposed. • The strategy aims to preserve the integrity of the reactor vessel as well as core cooling. • A case study for an extreme damage state is performed to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of candidate mitigation strategies under an extreme event. - Abstract: The Fukushima Daiichi accident induced by the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, poses a new challenge to the nuclear society, especially from an accident management viewpoint. This paper presents a new accident management framework called an integrated, RObust Coping Strategy (iROCS) to cope with beyond-design-basis external events (BDBEEs). The iROCS approach is characterized by classification of various plant damage conditions (PDCs) that might be impacted by BDBEEs and corresponding integrated coping strategies for each of PDCs, aiming to maintain and restore core cooling (i.e., to prevent core damage) and to maintain the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel if it is judged that core damage may not be preventable in view of plant conditions. From a case study for an extreme damage condition, it showed that candidate accident management strategies should be evaluated from the viewpoint of effectiveness and feasibility against accident scenarios and extreme damage conditions of the site, especially when employing mobile or portable equipment under BDBEEs within the limited time available to achieve desired goals such as prevention of core damage as well as a reactor vessel failure.

Glutamate dehydrogenase (RocG) in Bacillus licheniformis WX-02: Enzymatic properties and specific functions in glutamic acid synthesis for poly-γ-glutamic acid production.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Guangming; Wang, Qin; Wei, Xuetuan; Ma, Xin; Chen, Shouwen

2017-04-01

Poly-γ-glutamic acid (γ-PGA), a natural biopolymer, is widely used in cosmetics, medicine, food, water treatment, and agriculture owing to its features of moisture sequestration, cation chelation, non-toxicity and biodegradability. Intracellular glutamic acid, the substrate of γ-PGA, is a limiting factor for high yield in γ-PGA production. Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus licheniformis are both important γ-PGA producing strains, and B. subtilis synthesizes glutamic acid in vivo using the unique GOGAT/GS pathway. However, little is known about the glutamate synthesis pathway in B. licheniformis. The aim of this work was to characterize the glutamate dehydrogenase (RocG) in glutamic acid synthesis from B. licheniformis with both in vivo and in vitro experiments. By re-directing the carbon flux distribution, the rocG gene deletion mutant WX-02ΔrocG produced intracellular glutamic acid with a concentration of 90ng/log(CFU), which was only 23.7% that of the wild-type WX-02 (380ng/log(CFU)). Furthermore, the γ-PGA yield of mutant WX-02ΔrocG was 5.37g/L, a decrease of 45.3% compared to the wild type (9.82g/L). In vitro enzymatic assays of RocG showed that RocG has higher affinity for 2-oxoglutarate than glutamate, and the glutamate synthesis rate was far above degradation. This is probably the first study to reveal the glutamic acid synthesis pathway and the specific functions of RocG in B. licheniformis. The results indicate that γ-PGA production can be enhanced through improving intracellular glutamic acid synthesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Análise TG-ROC de testes de imunofluorescência no diagnóstico de leishmaniose visceral canina Análisis TG-ROC de pruebas de inmunofluorescencia en el diagnóstico de leishmaniasis visceral canina TG-ROC analysis of immunofluorescence assays in canine visceral leishmaniasis diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Maria da Silva

2009-12-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a acurácia do diagnóstico de dois protocolos de imunofluorescência indireta para leishmaniose visceral canina. MÉTODOS: Cães provenientes de inquérito soroepidemiológico realizado em área endêmica nos municípios de Araçatuba e de Andradina, na região noroeste do estado de São Paulo, em 2003, e área não endêmica da região metropolitana de São Paulo, foram utilizados para avaliar comparativamente dois protocolos da reação de imunofluorescência indireta (RIFI para leishmaniose: um utilizando antígeno heterólogo Leishmania major (RIFI-BM e outro utilizando antígeno homólogo Leishmania chagasi (RIFI-CH. Para estimar acurácia utilizou-se a análise two-graph receiver operating characteristic (TG-ROC. A análise TG-ROC comparou as leituras da diluição 1:20 do antígeno homólogo (RIFI-CH, consideradas como teste referência, com as diluições da RIFI-BM (antígeno heterólogo. RESULTADOS: A diluição 1:20 do teste RIFI-CH apresentou o melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,755 e a maior força de associação entre as duas variáveis estudadas (qui-quadrado=124,3, sendo considerada a diluição-referência do teste nas comparações com as diferentes diluições do teste RIFI-BM. Os melhores resultados do RIFI-BM foram obtidos na diluição 1:40, com melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,680 e maior força de associação (qui-quadrado=80,8. Com a mudança do ponto de corte sugerido nesta análise para a diluição 1:40 da RIFI-BM, o valor do parâmetro especificidade aumentou de 57,5% para 97,7%, embora a diluição 1:80 tivesse apresentado a melhor estimativa para sensibilidade (80,2% com o novo ponto de corte. CONCLUSÕES: A análise TG-ROC pode fornecer importantes informações sobre os testes de diagnósticos, além de apresentar sugestões sobre pontos de cortes que podem melhorar as estimativas de sensibilidade e especificidade do teste, e avaliá-los a luz do melhor custo

[Customized and non-customized French intrauterine growth curves. II - Comparison with existing curves and benefits of customization].

Science.gov (United States)

Ego, A; Prunet, C; Blondel, B; Kaminski, M; Goffinet, F; Zeitlin, J

2016-02-01

Our aim is to compare the new French EPOPé intrauterine growth curves, developed to address the guidelines 2013 of the French College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, with reference curves currently used in France, and to evaluate the consequences of their adjustment for fetal sex and maternal characteristics. Eight intrauterine and birthweight curves, used in France were compared to the EPOPé curves using data from the French Perinatal Survey 2010. The influence of adjustment on the rate of SGA births and the characteristics of these births was analysed. Due to their birthweight values and distribution, the selected intrauterine curves are less suitable for births in France than the new curves. Birthweight curves led to low rates of SGA births from 4.3 to 8.5% compared to 10.0% with the EPOPé curves. The adjustment for maternal and fetal characteristics avoids the over-representation of girls among SGA births, and reclassifies 4% of births. Among births reclassified as SGA, the frequency of medical and obstetrical risk factors for growth restriction, smoking (≥10 cigarettes/day), and neonatal transfer is higher than among non-SGA births (P<0.01). The EPOPé curves are more suitable for French births than currently used curves, and their adjustment improves the identification of mothers and babies at risk of growth restriction and poor perinatal outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Patterns and sources of adult personality development: growth curve analyses of the NEO PI-R scales in a longitudinal twin study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleidorn, Wiebke; Kandler, Christian; Riemann, Rainer; Spinath, Frank M; Angleitner, Alois

2009-07-01

The present study examined the patterns and sources of 10-year stability and change of adult personality assessed by the 5 domains and 30 facets of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. Phenotypic and biometric analyses were performed on data from 126 identical and 61 fraternal twins from the Bielefeld Longitudinal Study of Adult Twins (BiLSAT). Consistent with previous research, LGM analyses revealed significant mean-level changes in domains and facets suggesting maturation of personality. There were also substantial individual differences in the change trajectories of both domain and facet scales. Correlations between age and trait changes were modest and there were no significant associations between change and gender. Biometric extensions of growth curve models showed that 10-year stability and change of personality were influenced by both genetic as well as environmental factors. Regarding the etiology of change, the analyses uncovered a more complex picture than originally stated, as findings suggest noticeable differences between traits with respect to the magnitude of genetic and environmental effects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

Life-Long Cyberlearning System: A Pilot Project for the "Learning Society" in the ROC.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Huei-Wen; Wang, Yen-Chao

1999-01-01

Provides an overview of the implementation of lifelong learning in Taiwan, Republic of China (ROC) as part of its educational reform policy and describes a pilot project, the Lifelong Cyberlearning System. Highlights include planning architecture, Web-based learning technology, professional education, industrial and corporate assistance, and…

Orbital benign and malignant lymphoproliferative disorders: Differentiation using semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Hao; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Liu, Hu; Hong, Xun-Ning; Shi, Hai-Bin; Wu, Fei-Yun

2017-01-01

Objectives: To assess the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging (DCE-MRI) in differentiating benign from malignant orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (OLPDs). Methods: Thirty-nine patients with orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (21 malignant and 18 benign) underwent DCE-MRI scan for pre-treatment evaluation from March 2013 to December 2015. Both semi-quantitative (TTP, AUC, Slope max ) and quantitative (K trans , k ep , v e ) parameters were calculated, and compared between two groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the diagnostic value of each significant parameter. Results: Malignant OLPDs showed significantly higher k ep , lower v e , and lower AUC than benign OLPDs, while no significant differences were found on K trans , TTP and Slope max . ROC analyses indicated that v e exhibited the best diagnostic performance in predicting malignant OLPDs (cutoff value, 0.211; area under the curve, 0.896; sensitivity, 76.2%; specificity, 94.9%), followed by k ep (cutoff value, 0.853; area under the curve, 0.839; sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 89.9%). Conclusion: DCE-MRI and specially its derived quantitative parameters of k ep and v e are promising metrics for differentiating malignant from benign OLPDs.

Reliability of cone beam computed tomography as a biopsy-independent tool in differential diagnosis of periapical cysts and granulomas: An In vivo Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chanani, Ankit; Adhikari, Haridas Das

2017-01-01

Differential diagnosis of periapical cysts and granulomas is required as their treatment modalities are different. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in the differential diagnosis of periapical cysts from granulomas. A single-centered observational study was carried out in the Department of Conservative Dentistry and Endodontics, Dr. R. Ahmed Dental College and Hospital, using CBCT and dental operating microscope. Forty-five lesions were analyzed using CBCT scans. One evaluator analyzed each CBCT scan for the presence of the following six characteristic radiological features: cyst like-location, shape, periphery, internal structure, effect on the surrounding structures, and cortical plate perforation. Another independent evaluator analyzed the CBCT scans. This process was repeated after 6 months, and inter- and intrarater reliability of CBCT diagnoses was evaluated. Periapical surgeries were performed and tissue samples were obtained for histopathological analysis. To evaluate the efficacy, CBCT diagnoses were compared with histopathological diagnoses, and six receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted. ROC curve, Cronbach's alpha (α) test, and Cohen Kappa (κ) test were used for statistical analysis. Both inter- and intrarater reliability were excellent (α = 0.94, κ = 0.75 and 0.77, respectively). ROC curve with regard to ≥4 positive findings revealed the highest area under curve (0.66). CBCT is moderately accurate in the differential diagnosis of periapical cysts and granulomas.

The Impact of Salient Role Stress on Trajectories of Health in Late Life among Survivors of a Seven-Year Panel Study: Analyses of Individual Growth Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Benjamin A.; Krause, Neal

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study is twofold: 1) to model changes in health over time among older adults; and 2) to assess the degree to which stress arising in salient social roles accounts for individual variation in these changes. Individual growth curve analyses using Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) software were employed with longitudinal data…

The Belief Bias Effect Is Aptly Named: A Reply to Klauer and Kellen (2011)

Science.gov (United States)

Dube, Chad; Rotello, Caren M.; Heit, Evan

2011-01-01

In "Assessing the Belief Bias Effect With ROCs: It's a Response Bias Effect," Dube, Rotello, and Heit (2010) examined the form of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for reasoning and the effects of belief bias on measurement indices that differ in whether they imply a curved or linear ROC function. We concluded that the ROC…

Evaluation of computer tomograms using a black-and-white monitor and a colour monitor: A ROC comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rockstroh, G.; Rotte, K.H.; Kriedemann, E.

1987-01-01

Different views about the value of a colour monitor for the evaluation of computer tomograms have prompted us to carry out this ROC (Receiver Operation Characteristic) examination. The latter was based on patient computer tomograms in which lesions of the liver were simulated by image manipulation. 5 radiologists analysed the image material (a) on a black-and-white monitor, (b) on a colour monitor, and (c) simultaneously on a black-and-white and a colour monitor. The study shows that the use of a colour monitor gives no essentially different result than evaluation with a black-and-white monitor. The slightly better result of 2% more true positive findings with simultaneous representation of black-and-white and colour image relative to the sole use of black-and-white display is within error limits. The colour representation gives no advantages for the evaluation of usual computer tomograms because the window technique enables a contrasty representation in black-and-white too. (orig.) [de

Sensitivity analysis for publication bias in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies for a continuous biomarker.

Science.gov (United States)

Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2018-02-10

Publication bias is one of the most important issues in meta-analysis. For standard meta-analyses to examine intervention effects, the funnel plot and the trim-and-fill method are simple and widely used techniques for assessing and adjusting for the influence of publication bias, respectively. However, their use may be subjective and can then produce misleading insights. To make a more objective inference for publication bias, various sensitivity analysis methods have been proposed, including the Copas selection model. For meta-analysis of diagnostic studies evaluating a continuous biomarker, the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve is a very useful method in the presence of heterogeneous cutoff values. To our best knowledge, no methods are available for evaluation of influence of publication bias on estimation of the sROC curve. In this paper, we introduce a Copas-type selection model for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies and propose a sensitivity analysis method for publication bias. Our method enables us to assess the influence of publication bias on the estimation of the sROC curve and then judge whether the result of the meta-analysis is sufficiently confident or should be interpreted with much caution. We illustrate our proposed method with real data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relative level populations in S VI after beam-foil excitation, obtained from ANDC analyses of measured decay curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engstroem, L.

1983-01-01

This paper reports the relative population of the levels 3p, 3d, 4d, 5d, 4f, 5g, 6g, 6h, 7h, 7i, 8i and 8k in Na-like sulfur, S VI, after beam-foil excitation at an energy of 3 MeV. For the first time the ANDC technique has been used to obtain the relative efficiency calibration of the detection system at discrete points in the wavelength interval 400-5000 A, from the analyses of measured decay curves. The advantages and limitations of this method are discussed. The populations obtained with this new technique are compared to previous measurements in multiply ionized atoms. The preferential population of the 3p and 3d levels observed in other Na-like ions is now accurately established. For the higher lying levels an almost constant population is observed. (Auth.)

Analyser-based phase contrast image reconstruction using geometrical optics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kitchen, M J; Pavlov, K M; Siu, K K W; Menk, R H; Tromba, G; Lewis, R A

2007-07-21

Analyser-based phase contrast imaging can provide radiographs of exceptional contrast at high resolution (geometrical optics are satisfied. Analytical phase retrieval can be performed by fitting the analyser rocking curve with a symmetric Pearson type VII function. The Pearson VII function provided at least a 10% better fit to experimentally measured rocking curves than linear or Gaussian functions. A test phantom, a hollow nylon cylinder, was imaged at 20 keV using a Si(1 1 1) analyser at the ELETTRA synchrotron radiation facility. Our phase retrieval method yielded a more accurate object reconstruction than methods based on a linear fit to the rocking curve. Where reconstructions failed to map expected values, calculations of the Takagi number permitted distinction between the violation of the geometrical optics conditions and the failure of curve fitting procedures. The need for synchronized object/detector translation stages was removed by using a large, divergent beam and imaging the object in segments. Our image acquisition and reconstruction procedure enables quantitative phase retrieval for systems with a divergent source and accounts for imperfections in the analyser.

Non-Constant Learning Rates in Retrospective Experience Curve Analyses and their Correlation to Deployment Programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Max [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-07-16

A key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters is to estimate future technology costs and in particular the rate of cost reduction versus production volume. A related, critical question is what role should state and federal governments have in advancing energy efficient and renewable energy technologies? This work provides retrospective experience curves and learning rates for several energy-related technologies, each of which have a known history of federal and state deployment programs. We derive learning rates for eight technologies including energy efficient lighting technologies, stationary fuel cell systems, and residential solar photovoltaics, and provide an overview and timeline of historical deployment programs such as state and federal standards and state and national incentive programs for each technology. Piecewise linear regimes are observed in a range of technology experience curves, and public investments or deployment programs are found to be strongly correlated to an increase in learning rate across multiple technologies. A downward bend in the experience curve is found in 5 out of the 8 energy-related technologies presented here (electronic ballasts, magnetic ballasts, compact fluorescent lighting, general service fluorescent lighting, and the installed cost of solar PV). In each of the five downward-bending experience curves, we believe that an increase in the learning rate can be linked to deployment programs to some degree. This work sheds light on the endogenous versus exogenous contributions to technological innovation and highlights the impact of exogenous government sponsored deployment programs. This work can inform future policy investment direction and can shed light on market transformation and technology learning behavior.

Receiver Operator Characteristic Tools Graphic User Interface Extension for R Commander

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Corneliu LEUCUŢA

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC curve, is a graphical plot which presents the performance of a binary classifier when the discrimination cutoff is varied. The aim of this work was to create an extension for R Commander that offers a graphical user interface for Receiver Operator Characteristic tools provided by several existing command line accessible packages like pROC and ROCR. Material and Methods: The extension was built and tested with R version 3.2.0 and R Commander 2.1-7. Results: We built an extension called RcmdrPlugin.ROC that we uploaded on the CRAN servers. The extension adds a new menu called ROC, along with two submenus pROC and ROCR that broadly corresponds to commands available to access the functions of these packages. The pROC menu offers several commands: to plot a ROC curve for a dataset or for a logistic regression model, to compare paired and unpaired ROC curves, each providing the following tabs: General (to select the variables for the analysis, and options for switching cases with controls; Smoothing (allowing the user to select different types of smoothing – binominal, density, distributions like normal, lognormal, ...; AUC (to specify the partial area under the curve (AUC options, CI (to select the options of confidence intervals (CI – the level, computing method: DeLong, bootstrap, ...; Plot (for the plotting options. The ROCR dialogue window offers more options in choosing the performance measures for the plot. Conclusion: The RcmdrPlugin.ROC extension helps less advanced users of R accessing ROC tools in a friendly graphical user interface.

Orbital benign and malignant lymphoproliferative disorders: Differentiation using semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Hao; Xu, Xiao-Quan [Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China); Liu, Hu [Department of Ophthalmology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China); Hong, Xun-Ning; Shi, Hai-Bin [Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China); Wu, Fei-Yun, E-mail: wfydd_njmu@163.com [Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (China)

2017-03-15

Objectives: To assess the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging (DCE-MRI) in differentiating benign from malignant orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (OLPDs). Methods: Thirty-nine patients with orbital lymphoproliferative disorders (21 malignant and 18 benign) underwent DCE-MRI scan for pre-treatment evaluation from March 2013 to December 2015. Both semi-quantitative (TTP, AUC, Slope{sub max}) and quantitative (K{sup trans}, k{sub ep}, v{sub e}) parameters were calculated, and compared between two groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the diagnostic value of each significant parameter. Results: Malignant OLPDs showed significantly higher k{sub ep}, lower v{sub e}, and lower AUC than benign OLPDs, while no significant differences were found on K{sup trans}, TTP and Slope{sub max}. ROC analyses indicated that v{sub e} exhibited the best diagnostic performance in predicting malignant OLPDs (cutoff value, 0.211; area under the curve, 0.896; sensitivity, 76.2%; specificity, 94.9%), followed by k{sub ep} (cutoff value, 0.853; area under the curve, 0.839; sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 89.9%). Conclusion: DCE-MRI and specially its derived quantitative parameters of k{sub ep} and v{sub e} are promising metrics for differentiating malignant from benign OLPDs.

Recollection and Familiarity in Recognition Memory: Evidence from ROC Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Heathcote, Andrew; Raymond, Frances; Dunn, John

2006-01-01

Does recognition memory rely on discrete recollection, continuous evidence, or both? Is continuous evidence sensitive to only the recency and duration of study (familiarity), or is it also sensitive to details of the study episode? Dual process theories assume recognition is based on recollection and familiarity, with only recollection providing…

Comparative Analysis of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network for the Differential Diagnosis of Benign and Malignant Solid Breast Tumors by the Use of Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shou Tung; Hsiao, Yi Hsuan; Kuo, Shou Jen; Tseng, Hsin Shun; Wu, Hwa Koon; Chen, Dar Ren; Huang, Yu Len

2009-01-01

Logistic regression analysis (LRA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a neural network (NN) are commonly used statistical models in computeraided diagnostic (CAD) systems for breast ultrasonography (US). The aim of this study was to clarify the diagnostic ability of the use of these statistical models for future applications of CAD systems, such as three-dimensional (3D) power Doppler imaging, vascularity evaluation and the differentiation of a solid mass. A database that contained 3D power Doppler imaging pairs of non-harmonic and tissue harmonic images for 97 benign and 86 malignant solid tumors was utilized. The virtual organ computer-aided analysis-imaging program was used to analyze the stored volumes of the 183 solid breast tumors. LRA, an SVM and NN were employed in comparative analyses for the characterization of benign and malignant solid breast masses from the database. The values of area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as Az values for the use of non-harmonic 3D power Doppler US with LRA, SVM and NN were 0.9341, 0.9185 and 0.9086, respectively. The Az values for the use of harmonic 3D power Doppler US with LRA, SVM and NN were 0.9286, 0.8979 and 0.9009, respectively. The Az values of six ROC curves for the use of LRA, SVM and NN for non-harmonic or harmonic 3D power Doppler imaging were similar. The diagnostic performances of these three models (LRA, SVM and NN) are not different as demonstrated by ROC curve analysis. Depending on user emphasis for the use of ROC curve findings, the use of LRA appears to provide better sensitivity as compared to the other statistical models

Solution-processed photovoltaics with advanced characterization and analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Hsin-Sheng

In support of hyperspectral imaging system design and parameter trade-off research, an analytical end-to-end model to simulate the remote sensing system pipeline and to forecast remote sensing system performance has been implemented. It is also being made available to the remote sensing community through a website. Users are able to forecast hyperspectral imaging system performance by defining an observational scenario along with imaging system parameters. For system modeling, the implemented analytical model includes scene, sensor and target characteristics as well as atmospheric features, background spectral reflectance statistics, sensor specifications and target class reflectance statistics. The sensor model has been extended to include the airborne ProspecTIR instrument. To validate the analytical model, experiments were designed and conducted. The predictive system model has been verified by comparing the forecast results to ones obtained using real world data collected during the RIT SHARE 2012 collection. Results include the use of large calibration panels to show the predicted radiance consistent with the collected data. Grass radiance predicted from ground truth reflectance data also compare well with the real world collected data, and an eigenvector analysis also supports the validity of the predictions. Two examples of subpixel target detection scenario are presented. One is to detect subpixel wood yellow painted planks in an asphalt playground, and the other is to detect subpixel green painted wood planks in grass. To validate our system performance, the detection performance are analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in a comprehensive scenario setting. The predicted ROC result of the yellow planks matches well the ROC derived from collected data. However, the predicted ROC curve of green planks differs from collected data ROC curve. Additional experiments were conducted and analyzed to discuss the possible reasons of the

Performance quantification of clustering algorithms for false positive removal in fMRI by ROC curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Salles Cunha Peres

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is a non-invasive technique that allows the detection of specific cerebral functions in humans based on hemodynamic changes. The contrast changes are about 5%, making visual inspection impossible. Thus, statistic strategies are applied to infer which brain region is engaged in a task. However, the traditional methods like general linear model and cross-correlation utilize voxel-wise calculation, introducing a lot of false-positive data. So, in this work we tested post-processing cluster algorithms to diminish the false-positives. Methods In this study, three clustering algorithms (the hierarchical cluster, k-means and self-organizing maps were tested and compared for false-positive removal in the post-processing of cross-correlation analyses. Results Our results showed that the hierarchical cluster presented the best performance to remove the false positives in fMRI, being 2.3 times more accurate than k-means, and 1.9 times more accurate than self-organizing maps. Conclusion The hierarchical cluster presented the best performance in false-positive removal because it uses the inconsistency coefficient threshold, while k-means and self-organizing maps utilize a priori cluster number (centroids and neurons number; thus, the hierarchical cluster avoids clustering scattered voxels, as the inconsistency coefficient threshold allows only the voxels to be clustered that are at a minimum distance to some cluster.

Physiologic Waveform Analysis for Early Detection of Hemorrhage during Transport and Higher Echelon Medical Care of Combat Casualties

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-01

area under the curve (ROC AUC ) values. (ROC AUC values range from 0 and 1 and indicate the probability of correct detection/discrimination...training set of the human LBNP data. Values are receiver operating characteristic area under the curves (ROC AUCs ) comparing the relative SV change...detection of hemorrhage is crucial for managing combat casualties. However, mean arterial blood pressure (ABP) and other vital signs are late indicators of

Beyond ROC Curvature: Strength Effects and Response Time Data Support Continuous-Evidence Models of Recognition Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Dube, Chad; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Ratcliff, Roger

2012-01-01

A classic question in the recognition memory literature is whether retrieval is best described as a continuous-evidence process consistent with signal detection theory (SDT), or a threshold process consistent with many multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. Because receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) based on confidence ratings are…

Analyser-based phase contrast image reconstruction using geometrical optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitchen, M J; Pavlov, K M; Siu, K K W; Menk, R H; Tromba, G; Lewis, R A

2007-01-01

Analyser-based phase contrast imaging can provide radiographs of exceptional contrast at high resolution (<100 μm), whilst quantitative phase and attenuation information can be extracted using just two images when the approximations of geometrical optics are satisfied. Analytical phase retrieval can be performed by fitting the analyser rocking curve with a symmetric Pearson type VII function. The Pearson VII function provided at least a 10% better fit to experimentally measured rocking curves than linear or Gaussian functions. A test phantom, a hollow nylon cylinder, was imaged at 20 keV using a Si(1 1 1) analyser at the ELETTRA synchrotron radiation facility. Our phase retrieval method yielded a more accurate object reconstruction than methods based on a linear fit to the rocking curve. Where reconstructions failed to map expected values, calculations of the Takagi number permitted distinction between the violation of the geometrical optics conditions and the failure of curve fitting procedures. The need for synchronized object/detector translation stages was removed by using a large, divergent beam and imaging the object in segments. Our image acquisition and reconstruction procedure enables quantitative phase retrieval for systems with a divergent source and accounts for imperfections in the analyser

Lagrangian Curves on Spectral Curves of Monopoles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilfoyle, Brendan; Khalid, Madeeha; Ramon Mari, Jose J.

2010-01-01

We study Lagrangian points on smooth holomorphic curves in TP 1 equipped with a natural neutral Kaehler structure, and prove that they must form real curves. By virtue of the identification of TP 1 with the space LE 3 of oriented affine lines in Euclidean 3-space, these Lagrangian curves give rise to ruled surfaces in E 3 , which we prove have zero Gauss curvature. Each ruled surface is shown to be the tangent lines to a curve in E 3 , called the edge of regression of the ruled surface. We give an alternative characterization of these curves as the points in E 3 where the number of oriented lines in the complex curve Σ that pass through the point is less than the degree of Σ. We then apply these results to the spectral curves of certain monopoles and construct the ruled surfaces and edges of regression generated by the Lagrangian curves.

Subject-centered free-response ROC (FROC) analysis

OpenAIRE

Bandos, Andriy I.; Rockette, Howard E.; Gur, David

2013-01-01

Purpose: To develop an approach of estimating subject-centered free-response receiver operating characteristic (FROC) curve for providing patient-centered inferences regarding detection-localization characteristics of a diagnostic system.

Diagnostic value of fibronectin discriminant score for predicting liver fibrosis stages in chronic hepatitis C virus patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Attallah, Abdelfattah M; Abdallah, Sanaa O; Attallah, Ahmed A; Omran, Mohamed M; Farid, Khaled; Nasif, Wesam A; Shiha, Gamal E; Abdel-Aziz, Abdel-Aziz F; Rasafy, Nancy; Shaker, Yehia M

2013-01-01

Several noninvasive predictive models were developed to substitute liver biopsy for fibrosis assessment. To evaluate the diagnostic value of fibronectin which reflect extracellular matrix metabolism and standard liver functions tests which reflect alterations in hepatic functions. Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients (n = 145) were evaluated using ROC curves and stepwise multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) and was validated in 180 additional patients. Liver biochemical profile including transaminases, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, complete blood count were estimated. Fibronectin concentration was determined using monoclonal antibody and ELISA. A novel index named fibronectin discriminant score (FDS) based on fibronectin, APRI and albumin was developed. FDS produced areas under ROC curves (AUC) of 0.91 for significant fibrosis and 0.81 for advanced fibrosis. The FDS correctly classified 79% of the significant liver fibrosis patients (F2-F4) with 87% sensitivity and 75% specificity. The relative risk [odds ratio (OR)] of having significant liver fibrosis using the cut-off values determined by ROC curve analyses were 6.1 for fibronectin, 4.9 for APRI, and 4.2 for albumin. FDS predicted liver fibrosis with an OR of 16.8 for significant fibrosis and 8.6 for advanced fibrosis. The FDS had similar AUC and OR in the validation group to the estimation group without statistically significant difference. FDS predicted liver fibrosis with high degree of accuracy, potentially decreasing the number of liver biopsy required.

Reducing variability in the output of pattern classifiers using histogram shaping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Shalini; Kan, Chih-Wen; Markey, Mia K.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The authors present a novel technique based on histogram shaping to reduce the variability in the output and (sensitivity, specificity) pairs of pattern classifiers with identical ROC curves, but differently distributed outputs. Methods: The authors identify different sources of variability in the output of linear pattern classifiers with identical ROC curves, which also result in classifiers with differently distributed outputs. They theoretically develop a novel technique based on the matching of the histograms of these differently distributed pattern classifier outputs to reduce the variability in their (sensitivity, specificity) pairs at fixed decision thresholds, and to reduce the variability in their actual output values. They empirically demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed technique by means of analyses on the simulated data and real world mammography data. Results: For the simulated data, with three different known sources of variability, and for the real world mammography data with unknown sources of variability, the proposed classifier output calibration technique significantly reduced the variability in the classifiers' (sensitivity, specificity) pairs at fixed decision thresholds. Furthermore, for classifiers with monotonically or approximately monotonically related output variables, the histogram shaping technique also significantly reduced the variability in their actual output values. Conclusions: Classifier output calibration based on histogram shaping can be successfully employed to reduce the variability in the output values and (sensitivity, specificity) pairs of pattern classifiers with identical ROC curves, but differently distributed outputs.

Translating 'distress' and screening for emotional distress in multicultural cancer patients in Israel.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Miri; Gagin, Roni; Cinamon, Tali; Stein, Tamar; Moscovitz, Marian; Kuten, Abraham

2012-05-01

The adaptability of the distress thermometer (DT) to multicultural groups has rarely been assessed. To assess DT adaptability to the Israeli population as a multicultural society. Participants were 496 cancer patients. They were recruited for 3 days a week in 2009-2010 (97% response rate). Participants completed the DT, a problem list, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI-18). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses of DT scores yielded area under the curve (AUC) of 0.63 as against HADS and of 0.78 as against BSI-18. ROC analysis revealed that the optimal cutoff score was ≥ 3. It yielded sensitivity and specificity of 0.74 and 0.65, as against the HADS, and 0.64 and 0.64, as against the BSI-18. The Jewish participants reported higher distress than the Arab participants, and the ROC properties were markedly higher for the Jewish subgroup alone. The adapted DT was moderately efficient for detecting emotional distress in cancer patients in Israel. Cultural aspects related to distress should be taken into account for administration of the DT in multicultural societies.

bcROCsurface: an R package for correcting verification bias in estimation of the ROC surface and its volume for continuous diagnostic tests.

Science.gov (United States)

To Duc, Khanh

2017-11-18

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface analysis is usually employed to assess the accuracy of a medical diagnostic test when there are three ordered disease status (e.g. non-diseased, intermediate, diseased). In practice, verification bias can occur due to missingness of the true disease status and can lead to a distorted conclusion on diagnostic accuracy. In such situations, bias-corrected inference tools are required. This paper introduce an R package, named bcROCsurface, which provides utility functions for verification bias-corrected ROC surface analysis. The shiny web application of the correction for verification bias in estimation of the ROC surface analysis is also developed. bcROCsurface may become an important tool for the statistical evaluation of three-class diagnostic markers in presence of verification bias. The R package, readme and example data are available on CRAN. The web interface enables users less familiar with R to evaluate the accuracy of diagnostic tests, and can be found at http://khanhtoduc.shinyapps.io/bcROCsurface_shiny/ .

Application of three-class ROC analysis to task-based image quality assessment of simultaneous dual-isotope myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS).

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xin; Song, Xiyun; Frey, Eric C

2008-11-01

The diagnosis of cardiac disease using dual-isotope myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) is based on the defect status in both stress and rest images, and can be modeled as a three-class task of classifying patients as having no, reversible, or fixed perfusion defects. Simultaneous acquisition protocols for dual-isotope MPS imaging have gained much interest due to their advantages including perfect registration of the (201)Tl and (99m)Tc images in space and time, increased patient comfort, and higher clinical throughput. As a result of simultaneous acquisition, however, crosstalk contamination, where photons emitted by one isotope contribute to the image of the other isotope, degrades image quality. Minimizing the crosstalk is important in obtaining the best possible image quality. One way to minimize the crosstalk is to optimize the injected activity of the two isotopes by considering the three-class nature of the diagnostic problem. To effectively do so, we have previously developed a three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis methodology that extends and unifies the decision theoretic, linear discriminant analysis, and psychophysical foundations of binary ROC analysis in a three-class paradigm. In this work, we applied the proposed three-class ROC methodology to the assessment of the image quality of simultaneous dual-isotope MPS imaging techniques and the determination of the optimal injected activity combination. In addition to this application, the rapid development of diagnostic imaging techniques has produced an increasing number of clinical diagnostic tasks that involve not only disease detection, but also disease characterization and are thus multiclass tasks. This paper provides a practical example of the application of the proposed three-class ROC analysis methodology to medical problems.

Análisis de puntos de rocío y contenidos de humedad de mezclas gaseosas N2-H2O y CH4-H2O

OpenAIRE

D. Bogoya M.; C. Müller, I. Q.; L. R. Oellrich

1995-01-01

EI conocimiento actual del contenido de humedad de mezclas gaseosas saturadas es aún incompleto, especialmente en la región de altas presiones y bajas temperaturas. Por tanto se realizaron medidas experimentales de punta de rocío con los sistemas nitrógeno-agua y metano-agua, a presiones de 3 y 6 MPa y a temperaturas de 258 K a 288 K. Los puntos de rocío se determinaron con el método del espejo de punta de rocío y los contenidos de humedad por medio de la titulación de Karl-Fischer. Los valor...

Incorporating Experience Curves in Appliance Standards Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garbesi, Karina; Chan, Peter; Greenblatt, Jeffery; Kantner, Colleen; Lekov, Alex; Meyers, Stephen; Rosenquist, Gregory; Buskirk, Robert Van; Yang, Hung-Chia; Desroches, Louis-Benoit

2011-10-31

The technical analyses in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have typically assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. There is, however, considerable evidence that this assumption does not reflect real market prices. Costs and prices generally fall in relation to cumulative production, a phenomenon known as experience and modeled by a fairly robust empirical experience curve. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and shipment data obtained as part of the standards analysis process, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These allow us to develop more representative appliance price projections than the assumption-based approach of constant prices. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards for these products. The impact on the national modeling can be significant, often increasing the net present value of potential standard levels in the analysis. In some cases a previously cost-negative potential standard level demonstrates a benefit when incorporating experience. These results imply that past energy conservation standards analyses may have undervalued the economic benefits of potential standard levels.

Reconstruction of thermally quenched glow curves in quartz

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subedi, Bhagawan; Polymeris, George S.; Tsirliganis, Nestor C.; Pagonis, Vasilis; Kitis, George

2012-01-01

The experimentally measured thermoluminescence (TL) glow curves of quartz samples are influenced by the presence of the thermal quenching effect, which involves a variation of the luminescence efficiency as a function of temperature. The real shape of the thermally unquenched TL glow curves is completely unknown. In the present work an attempt is made to reconstruct these unquenched glow curves from the quenched experimental data, and for two different types of quartz samples. The reconstruction is based on the values of the thermal quenching parameter W (activation energy) and C (a dimensionless constant), which are known from recent experimental work on these two samples. A computerized glow-curve deconvolution (CGCD) analysis was performed twice for both the reconstructed and the experimental TL glow curves. Special attention was paid to check for consistency between the results of these two independent CGCD analyses. The investigation showed that the reconstruction attempt was successful, and it is concluded that the analysis of reconstructed TL glow curves can provide improved values of the kinetic parameters E, s for the glow peaks of quartz. This also leads to a better evaluation of the half-lives of electron trapping levels used for dosimetry and luminescence dating.

Bootstrap confidence intervals for principal response curves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmerman, Marieke E.; Ter Braak, Cajo J. F.

2008-01-01

The principal response curve (PRC) model is of use to analyse multivariate data resulting from experiments involving repeated sampling in time. The time-dependent treatment effects are represented by PRCs, which are functional in nature. The sample PRCs can be estimated using a raw approach, or the

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Principal Response Curves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmerman, M.E.; Braak, ter C.J.F.

2008-01-01

The principal response curve (PRC) model is of use to analyse multivariate data resulting from experiments involving repeated sampling in time. The time-dependent treatment effects are represented by PRCs, which are functional in nature. The sample PRCs can be estimated using a raw approach, or the

Bragg Curve, Biological Bragg Curve and Biological Issues in Space Radiation Protection with Shielding

Science.gov (United States)

Honglu, Wu; Cucinotta, F.A.; Durante, M.; Lin, Z.; Rusek, A.

2006-01-01

The space environment consists of a varying field of radiation particles including high-energy ions, with spacecraft shielding material providing the major protection to astronauts from harmful exposure. Unlike low-LET gamma or X-rays, the presence of shielding does not always reduce the radiation risks for energetic charged particle exposure. Since the dose delivered by the charged particle increases sharply as the particle approaches the end of its range, a position known as the Bragg peak, the Bragg curve does not necessarily represent the biological damage along the particle traversal since biological effects are influenced by the track structure of both primary and secondary particles. Therefore, the biological Bragg curve is dependent on the energy and the type of the primary particle, and may vary for different biological endpoints. To achieve a Bragg curve distribution, we exposed cells to energetic heavy ions with the beam geometry parallel to a monolayer of fibroblasts. Qualitative analyses of gamma-H2AX fluorescence, a known marker of DSBs, indicated increased clustering of DNA damage before the Bragg peak, enhanced homogenous distribution at the peak, and provided visual evidence of high linear energy transfer (LET) particle traversal of cells beyond the Bragg peak. A quantitative biological response curve generated for micronuclei (MN) induction across the Bragg curve did not reveal an increased yield of MN at the location of the Bragg peak. However, the ratio of mono-to bi-nucleated cells, which indicates inhibition in cell progression, increased at the Bragg peak location. These results, along with other biological concerns, show that space radiation protection with shielding can be a complicated issue.

Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanhoe, L.F.

1996-01-01

The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world's large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth's population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia's developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert's original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world's oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production

A Literature-Based Analysis of the Learning Curves of Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel W. Good

2014-05-01

Full Text Available There is a trend for the increased adoption of minimally invasive techniques of radical prostatectomy (RP – laparoscopic (LRP and robotic assisted (RARP – from the traditional open radical retropubic prostatectomy (ORP, popularised by Partin et al. Recently there has been a dramatic expansion in the rates of RARP being performed, and there have been many early reports postulating that the learning curve for RARP is shorter than for LRP. The aim of this study was to review the literature and analyse the length of the LRP learning curves for the various outcome measures: perioperative, oncologic, and functional outcomes. A broad search of the literature was performed in November 2013 using the PubMed database. Only studies of real patients and those from 2004 until 2013 were included; those on simulators were excluded. In total, 239 studies were identified after which 13 were included. The learning curve is a heterogeneous entity, depending entirely on the criteria used to define it. There is evidence of multiple learning curves; however the length of these is dependent on the definitions used by the authors. Few studies use the more rigorous definition of plateauing of the curve. Perioperative learning curve takes approximately 150-200 cases to plateau, oncologic curve approximately 200 cases, and the functional learning curve up to 700 cases to plateau (700 for potency, 200 cases for continence. In this review, we have analysed the literature with respect to the learning curve for LRP. It is clear that the learning curve is long. This necessitates centralising LRP to high volume centres such that surgeons, trainees, and patients are able to utilise the benefits of LRP.

Development of a precipitation-area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Deg-Hyo; Lee, Moon-Hwan; Moon, Sung-Keun

2018-01-01

This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002-2009) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P-A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P-A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P-A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h-1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km2, respectively. The proposed P-A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

High mortality risk among individuals assumed to be TB-negative can be predicted using a simple test

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rabna, Paulo; Andersen, Andreas; Wejse, Christian

2009-01-01

1007 aTBneg individuals who were enrolled from 2004 to 2006; 4983 age-matched controls were followed for comparison. Plasma suPAR levels were measured using the suPARnostic ELISA. Survival was analysed using Cox regression, ROC curves and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: After 3 months of follow......-up, mortality was 21 per 100 person-year-observation (PYO) among aTBneg individuals and three per 100 PYO among the control population [mortality rate ratio (MRR) = 6.92 (95% CI 4.48-10.7)]. SuPAR values ranged between 0.9 and 45 ng/ml in aTBneg individuals. A log-linear relationship was found between su......PAR levels linear range, a 1 ng/ml increase was associated with a 46% increase in the mortality rate: MRR = 1.46 (95% CI 1.34-1.59). The area under the ROC curves was 0.88 for HIV-positive individuals and 0.79 for HIV-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed...

Linear transform of the multi-target survival curve

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, J V [Cambridge Univ. (UK). Dept. of Clinical Oncology and Radiotherapeutics

1978-07-01

A completely linear transform of the multi-target survival curve is presented. This enables all data, including those on the shoulder region of the curve, to be analysed. The necessity to make a subjective assessment about which data points to exclude for conventional methods of analysis is, therefore, removed. The analysis has also been adapted to include a 'Pike-Alper' method of assessing dose modification factors. For the data cited this predicts compatibility with the hypothesis of a true oxygen 'dose-modification' whereas the conventional Pike-Alper analysis does not.

Automatic Mexico Gulf Oil Spill Detection from Radarsat-2 SAR Satellite Data Using Genetic Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Marghany, Maged

2016-10-01

In this work, a genetic algorithm is exploited for automatic detection of oil spills of small and large size. The route is achieved using arrays of RADARSAT-2 SAR ScanSAR Narrow single beam data obtained in the Gulf of Mexico. The study shows that genetic algorithm has automatically segmented the dark spot patches related to small and large oil spill pixels. This conclusion is confirmed by the receiveroperating characteristic (ROC) curve and ground data which have been documented. The ROC curve indicates that the existence of oil slick footprints can be identified with the area under the curve between the ROC curve and the no-discrimination line of 90%, which is greater than that of other surrounding environmental features. The small oil spill sizes represented 30% of the discriminated oil spill pixels in ROC curve. In conclusion, the genetic algorithm can be used as a tool for the automatic detection of oil spills of either small or large size and the ScanSAR Narrow single beam mode serves as an excellent sensor for oil spill patterns detection and surveying in the Gulf of Mexico.

Clinical evaluation of JPEG2000 compression for digital mammography

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Min-Mo; Kim, Hee-Joung; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Kwak, Jin-Young; Yoo, Jae-Kyung; Yoo, Hyung-Sik

2002-06-01

Medical images, such as computed radiography (CR), and digital mammographic images will require large storage facilities and long transmission times for picture archiving and communications system (PACS) implementation. American College of Radiology and National Equipment Manufacturers Association (ACR/NEMA) group is planning to adopt a JPEG2000 compression algorithm in digital imaging and communications in medicine (DICOM) standard to better utilize medical images. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the compression ratios of JPEG2000 for digital mammographic images using peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the t-test. The traditional statistical quality measures such as PSNR, which is a commonly used measure for the evaluation of reconstructed images, measures how the reconstructed image differs from the original by making pixel-by-pixel comparisons. The ability to accurately discriminate diseased cases from normal cases is evaluated using ROC curve analysis. ROC curves can be used to compare the diagnostic performance of two or more reconstructed images. The t test can be also used to evaluate the subjective image quality of reconstructed images. The results of the t test suggested that the possible compression ratios using JPEG2000 for digital mammographic images may be as much as 15:1 without visual loss or with preserving significant medical information at a confidence level of 99%, although both PSNR and ROC analyses suggest as much as 80:1 compression ratio can be achieved without affecting clinical diagnostic performance.

Impact of signal scattering and parametric uncertainties on receiver operating characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, D. Keith; Breton, Daniel J.; Hart, Carl R.; Pettit, Chris L.

2017-05-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve), which is a plot of the probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, plays a key role in the classical analysis of detector performance. However, meaningful characterization of the ROC curve is challenging when practically important complications such as variations in source emissions, environmental impacts on the signal propagation, uncertainties in the sensor response, and multiple sources of interference are considered. In this paper, a relatively simple but realistic model for scattered signals is employed to explore how parametric uncertainties impact the ROC curve. In particular, we show that parametric uncertainties in the mean signal and noise power substantially raise the tails of the distributions; since receiver operation with a very low probability of false alarm and a high probability of detection is normally desired, these tails lead to severely degraded performance. Because full a priori knowledge of such parametric uncertainties is rarely available in practice, analyses must typically be based on a finite sample of environmental states, which only partially characterize the range of parameter variations. We show how this effect can lead to misleading assessments of system performance. For the cases considered, approximately 64 or more statistically independent samples of the uncertain parameters are needed to accurately predict the probabilities of detection and false alarm. A connection is also described between selection of suitable distributions for the uncertain parameters, and Bayesian adaptive methods for inferring the parameters.

Effect of age on the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes in a Chinese middle-aged and elderly population: The Shanghai Changfeng Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Li; Lin, Huandong; Gao, Jian; Li, Xiaoming; Xia, Mingfeng; Wang, Dan; Aleteng, Qiqige; Ma, Hui; Pan, Baishen; Gao, Xin

2017-01-01

Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥6.5% (or 48mmol/mol) has been recommended as a new diagnostic criterion for diabetes; however, limited literature is available regarding the effect of age on the HbA1c for diagnosing diabetes and the causes for this age effect remain unknown. In this study, we investigated whether and why age affects the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes in a community-based Chinese population. In total, 4325 participants without previously known diabetes were enrolled in this study. Participants were stratified by age. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted for each age group and the area under the curve (AUC) represented the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes defined by the plasma glucose criteria. The area under the ROC curve in each one-year age group was defined as AUCage. Multiple regression analyses were performed to identify factors inducing the association between age and AUCage based on the changes in the β and P values of age. The current threshold of HbA1c (≥6.5% or 48mmol/mol) showed low sensitivity (35.6%) and high specificity (98.9%) in diagnosing diabetes. ROC curve analyses showed that the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c in the ≥75 years age group was significantly lower than that in the 45-54 years age group (AUC: 0.755 vs. 0.878; PHbA1c was negatively correlated with age (r = -0.557, P = 0.001). When adjusting the red blood cell (RBC) count in the multiple regression model, the negative association between age and AUCage disappeared, with the regression coefficient of age reversed to 0.001 and the P value increased to 0.856. The diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes decreased with aging, and this age effect was induced by the decreasing RBC count with age. HbA1c is unsuitable for diagnosing diabetes in elderly individuals because of their physiologically decreased RBC count.

A new comparison of hyperspectral anomaly detection algorithms for real-time applications

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz, María.; López, Sebastián.; Sarmiento, Roberto

2016-10-01

Due to the high spectral resolution that remotely sensed hyperspectral images provide, there has been an increasing interest in anomaly detection. The aim of anomaly detection is to stand over pixels whose spectral signature differs significantly from the background spectra. Basically, anomaly detectors mark pixels with a certain score, considering as anomalies those whose scores are higher than a threshold. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves have been widely used as an assessment measure in order to compare the performance of different algorithms. ROC curves are graphical plots which illustrate the trade- off between false positive and true positive rates. However, they are limited in order to make deep comparisons due to the fact that they discard relevant factors required in real-time applications such as run times, costs of misclassification and the competence to mark anomalies with high scores. This last fact is fundamental in anomaly detection in order to distinguish them easily from the background without any posterior processing. An extensive set of simulations have been made using different anomaly detection algorithms, comparing their performances and efficiencies using several extra metrics in order to complement ROC curves analysis. Results support our proposal and demonstrate that ROC curves do not provide a good visualization of detection performances for themselves. Moreover, a figure of merit has been proposed in this paper which encompasses in a single global metric all the measures yielded for the proposed additional metrics. Therefore, this figure, named Detection Efficiency (DE), takes into account several crucial types of performance assessment that ROC curves do not consider. Results demonstrate that algorithms with the best detection performances according to ROC curves do not have the highest DE values. Consequently, the recommendation of using extra measures to properly evaluate performances have been supported and justified by

Value of MR histogram analyses for prediction of microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ya-Qin; Liang, He-Yue; Yang, Zhao-Xia; Ding, Ying; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

2016-06-01

The objective is to explore the value of preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) histogram analyses in predicting microvascular invasion (MVI) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Fifty-one patients with histologically confirmed HCC who underwent diffusion-weighted and contrast-enhanced MR imaging were included. Histogram analyses were performed and mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, 1th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 99th percentiles were derived. Quantitative histogram parameters were compared between HCCs with and without MVI. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were generated to compare the diagnostic performance of tumor size, histogram analyses of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and MR enhancement.The mean, 1th, 10th, and 50th percentiles of ADC maps, and the mean, variance. 1th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 99th percentiles of the portal venous phase (PVP) images were significantly different between the groups with and without MVI (P histogram analyses-in particular for 1th percentile for PVP images-held promise for prediction of MVI of HCC.

Curve-of-growth analysis of M-type giants. beta. and. beta. Peg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanni, L.; Kipper, M.

1975-01-01

The curve-of-growth analysis is carried out with high-dispersion spectrograms of the region lambda lambda 5050--6150 for two M-type stars ..beta.. And (MOIII) and ..beta.. Peg (M2II-III) by using the newest oscillator strengths available. It has been found that the form of our empirical curve of growth is consistent with that of the theoretical curve by Wrubel. By making use of the data derived from the curve-of-growth analyses, atmospheric parameters such as THETA/sub ex/, rho/sub e/, ..nu../sub t/ and the abundances of the elements have been determined.

MODELS OF FATIGUE LIFE CURVES IN FATIGUE LIFE CALCULATIONS OF MACHINE ELEMENTS – EXAMPLES OF RESEARCH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz SZALA

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In the paper there was attempted to analyse models of fatigue life curves possible to apply in calculations of fatigue life of machine elements. The analysis was limited to fatigue life curves in stress approach enabling cyclic stresses from the range of low cycle fatigue (LCF, high cycle fatigue (HCF, fatigue limit (FL and giga cycle fatigue (GCF appearing in the loading spectrum at the same time. Chosen models of the analysed fatigue live curves will be illustrated with test results of steel and aluminium alloys.

Radiographic evaluation of the maxillary sinus prior to dental implant therapy: A comparison between two dimensional and three dimensional radiographic imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tadinada, Aditya; Fung, Karen; Thacker, Sejal; Mahdian, Mina; Jadhaw, Aniket; Schincaglia, Gian Pietro [University of Connecticut School of Dental Medicine, Farmington (United States)

2015-09-15

This study was performed to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of panoramic radiography and cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in detecting sinus pathology. This study was based on a retrospective evaluation of patients who had undergone both a panoramic radiograph and a CBCT exam. A total of 100 maxillary sinuses were evaluated. Four examiners with various levels of expertise evaluated the images using a five-point scoring system. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the two modalities. The image analysis was repeated twice, with at least two weeks between the evaluation sessions. Interobserver reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha, and intraobserver reliability was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Maxillary sinus pathology was detected in 72% of the patients. High interobserver and intraobserver reliability were observed for both imaging modalities and among the four examiners. Statistical analyses using ROC curves demonstrated that the CBCT images had a larger area under the curve (0.940) than the panoramic radiographs (0.579). Three-dimensional evaluation of the sinus with CBCT was significantly more reliable in detecting pathology than panoramic imaging.

Determination of the Optimal Cutoff Values for Pain Sensitivity Questionnaire Scores and the Oswestry Disability Index for Favorable Surgical Outcomes in Subjects With Lumbar Spinal Stenosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ho-Joong; Park, Jong-Woong; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Kang, Sung-Shik; Yeom, Jin S

2015-10-15

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data (NCT02134821). The aim of this study was to elucidate the cutoff values for significant predictors for favorable outcomes after lumbar spine surgery in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). Various factors are associated with the surgical outcomes for patients with LSS. However, we did not know the odds ratio and/or cutoff values of a predictive factor for a favorable surgical outcome for LSS. A total of 157 patients who underwent spine surgery due to LSS between June 2012 and April 2013 were included in this study. The patients were dichotomized into 2 groups on the basis of an Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score of 22 or less (favorable outcome group) or more than 22 (unfavorable outcome group) at 12 months after surgery. Regarding favorable outcomes, the odds ratio for each preoperative variable including demographic data, preoperative symptom severity, and pain sensitivity questionnaire (PSQ) score was calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. For the significant variables for surgical outcome, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted with calculation of the area under the ROC curve. Multivariate analysis revealed that the ODI and total PSQ scores were significantly associated with a greater likelihood of an unfavorable surgical outcome [odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of ODI, 1.289 (1.028-1.616); odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of total PSQ, 1.060 (1.009-1.113)]. ROC analysis revealed area under the ROC curves for the total PSQ and ODI scores of 0.638 (P = 0.005) and 0.692 (P disability and pain sensitivity can be predictors of the functional level achieved after spine surgery in patients with LSS, and the ideal cutoff values for the total PSQ and ODI scores were 6.6 and 45.0, respectively.

A predictive model for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV hospitalisation of premature infants born at 33–35 weeks of gestational age, based on data from the Spanish FLIP study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Figueras-Aloy Jose

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study, conducted in Europe, was to develop a validated risk factor based model to predict RSV-related hospitalisation in premature infants born 33–35 weeks' gestational age (GA. Methods The predictive model was developed using risk factors captured in the Spanish FLIP dataset, a case-control study of 183 premature infants born between 33–35 weeks' GA who were hospitalised with RSV, and 371 age-matched controls. The model was validated internally by 100-fold bootstrapping. Discriminant function analysis was used to analyse combinations of risk factors to predict RSV hospitalisation. Successive models were chosen that had the highest probability for discriminating between hospitalised and non-hospitalised infants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves were plotted. Results An initial 15 variable model was produced with a discriminant function of 72% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.795. A step-wise reduction exercise, alongside recalculations of some variables, produced a final model consisting of 7 variables: birth ± 10 weeks of start of season, birth weight, breast feeding for ≤ 2 months, siblings ≥ 2 years, family members with atopy, family members with wheeze, and gender. The discrimination of this model was 71% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.791. At the 0.75 sensitivity intercept, the false positive fraction was 0.33. The 100-fold bootstrapping resulted in a mean discriminant function of 72% (standard deviation: 2.18 and a median area under the ROC curve of 0.785 (range: 0.768–0.790, indicating a good internal validation. The calculated NNT for intervention to treat all at risk patients with a 75% level of protection was 11.7 (95% confidence interval: 9.5–13.6. Conclusion A robust model based on seven risk factors was developed, which is able to predict which premature infants born between 33–35 weeks' GA are at highest risk of hospitalisation from RSV. The model could be

Design and Performance Test of Locking Curved-Nut

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cha, Min Cheol; Kang, Ho Sung; Kim, Do Yeop; Lee, Suk Yong; Lee, Eung Suk [Chungbuk Nat’l Univ., Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Hui Jong [Viblock Company, Cheongwon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

Many types of locking nut are commercializing in the various industries where has heavy vibration. Because Nut's loosing causes a serious accident. But the most locking nuts are too expensive as the complicate manufacturing process. In this study, we design the new type of locking nut, 'Curved-Nut' that is relatively simple making process. We study a relation between the elastic energy and the nut loosing mechanism. So it is analysed, the elastic energy of Curved-Nut comparing with the locking test. The Curved-Nut was manufactured on the commercial nut using a milling tool with horizontal cutting, one or two time under the nut. As the result, the more elastic energy the more prevent the loosing of the nut. We verified the performance of the loosing nut using the vibration testing equipment (NAS3350).

Optimal cutoff values of WHO-HPQ presenteeism scores by ROC analysis for preventing mental sickness absence in Japanese prospective cohort.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomoko Suzuki

Full Text Available Sickness absence due to mental disease in the workplace has become a global public health problem. Previous studies report that sickness presenteeism is associated with sickness absence. We aimed to determine optimal cutoff scores for presenteeism in the screening of the future absences due to mental disease.A prospective study of 2195 Japanese employees from all areas of Japan was conducted. Presenteeism and depression were measured by the validated Japanese version of the World Health Organization Health and Work Performance Questionnaire (WHO-HPQ and K6 scale, respectively. Absence due to mental disease across a 2-year follow-up was surveyed using medical certificates obtained for work absence. Socioeconomic status was measured via a self-administered questionnaire. Receiver operating curve (ROC analysis was used to determine optimal cutoff scores for absolute and relative presenteeism in relation to the area under the curve (AUC, sensitivity, and specificity.The AUC values for absolute and relative presenteeism were 0.708 (95% CI, 0.618-0.797 and 0.646 (95% CI, 0.546-0.746, respectively. Optimal cutoff scores of absolute and relative presenteeism were 40 and 0.8, respectively. With multivariate adjustment, cohort participants with our proposal cutoff scores for absolute and relative presenteeism were significantly more likely to be absent due to mental disease (OR = 4.85, 95% CI: 2.20-10.73 and OR = 5.37, 95% CI: 2.42-11.93, respectively. The inclusion or exclusion of depressive symptoms (K6≥13 at baseline in the multivariate adjustment did not influence the results.Our proposed optimal cutoff scores of absolute and relative presenteeism are 40 and 0.8, respectively. Participants who scored worse than the cutoff scores for presenteeism were significantly more likely to be absent in future because of mental disease. Our findings suggest that the utility of presenteeism in the screening of sickness absence due to mental disease would

Contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound for prediction of prostate cancer aggressiveness: The role of normal peripheral zone time-intensity curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Qiu; Zhou, Zheng-Guo; Chen, Ling-Shan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Yang; Li, Hong-Bo; Yin, Li-Ping

2016-12-08

To assess the role of time-intensity curves (TICs) of the normal peripheral zone (PZ) in the identification of biopsy-proven prostate nodules using contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound (CETRUS). This study included 132 patients with 134 prostate PZ nodules. Arrival time (AT), peak intensity (PI), mean transit time (MTT), area under the curve (AUC), time from peak to one half (TPH), wash in slope (WIS) and time to peak (TTP) were analyzed using multivariate linear logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to assess whether combining nodule TICs with normal PZ TICs improved the prediction of prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness. The PI, AUC (p < 0.001 for both), MTT and TPH (p = 0.011 and 0.040 respectively) values of the malignant nodules were significantly higher than those of the benign nodules. Incorporating the PI and AUC values (both, p < 0.001) of the normal PZ TIC, but not the MTT and TPH values (p = 0.076 and 0.159 respectively), significantly improved the AUC for prediction of malignancy (PI: 0.784-0.923; AUC: 0.758-0.891) and assessment of cancer aggressiveness (p < 0.001). Thus, all these findings indicate that incorporating normal PZ TICs with nodule TICs in CETRUS readings can improve the diagnostic accuracy for PCa and cancer aggressiveness assessment.

Quality study of portal images acquired by computed radiography and screen-film system under megavoltage ray

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao Guoquan; Jin Xiance; Wu Shixiu; Xie Congying; Zhang Li; Yu Jianyi; Li Yueqing

2007-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the quality of the portal images acquired by computed radiography (CR) system and conventional screen-film system, respectively. Methods: Imaging plates (IP) and X-ray films ora home-devised lead phantom with a leakage of 6.45% were acquired, and modulation transfer function (MTF) curves of the both images were measured using edge method. Portal images of 40 nasopharyngeal cancer patients were acquired by IP and screen-film system respectively. Two doctors with similar experience evaluated the damage degree of petrosal bone, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of CR images and general images were drawn according to two doctors evaluation results. Results: The identification frequency of CR system and screen-film system were 1.159 and 0.806 Lp/mm respectively. For doctor one, the area under ROC curve of CR images and general images were 0.802 and 0.742 respectively. For doctor two, the area under ROC curve of CR images and general images were 0.751 and 0.600 respectively. The MTF curve and ROC curve of CR are both better than those of screen-film system. Conclusion: The image quality of CR portal imaging is much better than that of screen-film system. The utility of CR in linear accelerator for portal imaging is promising in clinic. (authors)

Using commercial simulators for determining flash distillation curves for petroleum fractions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleonora Erdmann

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This work describes a new method for estimating the equilibrium flash vaporisation (EFV distillation curve for petro-leum fractions by using commercial simulators. A commercial simulator was used for implementing a stationary mo-del for flash distillation; this model was adjusted by using a distillation curve obtained from standard laboratory ana-lytical assays. Such curve can be one of many types (eg ASTM D86, D1160 or D2887 and involves an experimental procedure simpler than that required for obtaining an EFV curve. Any commercial simulator able to model petroleum can be used for the simulation (HYSYS and CHEMCAD simulators were used here. Several types of petroleum and fractions were experimentally analysed for evaluating the proposed method; this data was then put into a process si-mulator (according to the proposed method to estimate the corresponding EFV curves. HYSYS- and CHEMCAD-estimated curves were compared to those produced by two traditional estimation methods (Edmister’s and Maswell’s methods. Simulation-estimated curves were close to average Edmister and Maxwell curves in all cases. The propo-sed method has several advantages; it avoids the need for experimentally obtaining an EFV curve, it does not de-pend on the type of experimental curve used to fit the model and it enables estimating several pressures by using just one experimental curve as data.

Measuring diagnostic and predictive accuracy in disease management: an introduction to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Linden, Ariel

2006-04-01

Diagnostic or predictive accuracy concerns are common in all phases of a disease management (DM) programme, and ultimately play an influential role in the assessment of programme effectiveness. Areas, such as the identification of diseased patients, predictive modelling of future health status and costs and risk stratification, are just a few of the domains in which assessment of accuracy is beneficial, if not critical. The most commonly used analytical model for this purpose is the standard 2 x 2 table method in which sensitivity and specificity are calculated. However, there are several limitations to this approach, including the reliance on a single defined criterion or cut-off for determining a true-positive result, use of non-standardized measurement instruments and sensitivity to outcome prevalence. This paper introduces the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis as a more appropriate and useful technique for assessing diagnostic and predictive accuracy in DM. Its advantages include; testing accuracy across the entire range of scores and thereby not requiring a predetermined cut-off point, easily examined visual and statistical comparisons across tests or scores, and independence from outcome prevalence. Therefore the implementation of ROC as an evaluation tool should be strongly considered in the various phases of a DM programme.

KBr-Li Br and KBr-LiBr doped with Ti mixed single crystal by Czochralski method and glow curve studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faripour, H.; Faripour, N.

2003-01-01

Mixed-single Crystals: pure KBr-LiBr and KBr-LiBr with Ti dopant were grown by Czochralski method. Because of difference between lattice parameters of KBr and LiBr, the growth speed of crystals were relatively low, and they were annealed in a special temperature condition providing some cleavages. They were exposed by β radiation and the glow curve was analysed for each crystal. Analysing of glow curve, showed that Ti impurity has been the curves of main peak curve appearance temperature decreasing

Theoretical Aspects of Phonon Dispersion Curves for Metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cochran, W.

1965-01-01

Reasonably complete knowledge of the phonon dispersion curves for at least a dozen metallic elements and intermetallic compounds has now been obtained from neutron inelastic scattering experiments. The results have one feature in common: when analysed in terms of interatomic force constants they reveal the presence of comparatively long-range forces extending over several atomic spacings. The results for lead are particularly interesting; it did not prove possible to fit them by a force-constant model, but the dispersion curves for wave vectors in symmetry directions when analysed in terms of force constants between planes of atoms showed an oscillatory interatomic potential extending over distances of more than 20Å. This review is concerned with recent theoretical work which has a bearing on the calculation of phonon dispersion curves for metals and the explanation of the long range of the interatomic potential. The best hope at present for a general treatment of atomic interaction in metals appears to lie in the ''method of neutral pseudo-atoms'', (a description recently coined by Ziman). This approximate theory is outlined and its relevance to Kohn anomalies in phonon dispersion curves is discussed. Experimental data for sodium is consistent with the theory, and the interatomic potential in sodium varies periodically in a distance π/k F , where fik F is the Fermi momentum, as has already been demonstrated by Koenig in a different way. More exact calculations have been made for sodium by Toya and by Sham. The relationship between the different methods and other work of a more general character such as that of Harrison are discussed. (author) [fr

Usefulness of ECT in liver diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishikawa, Jun-ichi

1981-01-01

The clinical usefulness of single photon emission tomography using rotating chair (ECT), comparing with liver scintigrams was examined with ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis. The ROC curve of ECT drew higher curved line than that of liver scintigram, i.e. true positive ratio of ECT was slightly inferior to that of liver scintigram, but false positive ratio of ECT was superior to that of liver scintigram. ECT adds useful clinical information to liver scintigram which shows questionable or suspected uptake defects. (author)

Stuck between a ROC and a hard place? Barriers to the take up of green energy in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diaz-Rainey, Ivan; Ashton, John K.

2008-01-01

This paper examines the UK mechanisms for ensuring future investment in renewable energy through consumer adoption of green energy tariffs and the Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) system. Using a national survey and focus groups the stated willingness by UK customers to pay a premium for renewable or green energy and actual take up of such tariffs is assessed. Substantial differences between willingness to pay for and the adoption of green energy tariffs are reported. This disparity is linked to a range of factors including consumer confusion, lack of supply, complexities of constructing 'green source' tariffs under the ROC system and a lack of customer trust. It is concluded that the re-definition of the green energy market in favour of 'green source' tariffs, greater direct compliance with the Renewable Obligation by addressing supply constraints, and efforts in providing clearer information and choices for consumers via a compulsory green energy accreditation scheme are required if willing consumers' are to contribute to investment in renewable energy

Utility as a rationale for choosing observer performance assessment paradigms for detection tasks in medical imaging.

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Wunderlich, Adam; Abbey, Craig K

2013-11-01

Studies of lesion detectability are often carried out to evaluate medical imaging technology. For such studies, several approaches have been proposed to measure observer performance, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the localization ROC (LROC), the free-response ROC (FROC), the alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and the exponentially transformed FROC (EFROC) paradigms. Therefore, an experimenter seeking to carry out such a study is confronted with an array of choices. Traditionally, arguments for different approaches have been made on the basis of practical considerations (statistical power, etc.) or the gross level of analysis (case-level or lesion-level). This article contends that a careful consideration of utility should form the rationale for matching the assessment paradigm to the clinical task of interest. In utility theory, task performance is commonly evaluated with total expected utility, which integrates the various event utilities against the probability of each event. To formalize the relationship between expected utility and the summary curve associated with each assessment paradigm, the concept of a "natural" utility structure is proposed. A natural utility structure is defined for a summary curve when the variables associated with the summary curve axes are sufficient for computing total expected utility, assuming that the disease prevalence is known. Natural utility structures for ROC, LROC, FROC, AFROC, and EFROC curves are introduced, clarifying how the utilities of correct and incorrect decisions are aggregated by summary curves. Further, conditions are given under which general utility structures for localization-based methodologies reduce to case-based assessment. Overall, the findings reveal how summary curves correspond to natural utility structures of diagnostic tasks, suggesting utility as a motivating principle for choosing an assessment paradigm.

fraud detection in mobile communications networks using user

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DEPT OF AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

testing the methods with data from real mobile communications networks. Keywords: Call .... System. Monitoring. Database. Database. Fig. 3: Mobile communication detection tools ..... receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). ROC is a ...

77 FR 1707 - National Toxicology Program (NTP) Final Process for Preparation of the Report on Carcinogens (RoC)

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-11

... the RoC. The process is available on the NTP Web site ( http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/rocprocess ) or by... Counselors public meeting (76 FR 68461) on December 15, 2011 ( http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/9741 ). The NTP... Web site ( http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/rocprocess ) or by contacting Dr. Lunn (see ADDRESSES...

Prognostic value of FDG PET/CT in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas

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Dequanter D

2015-08-01

Full Text Available D Dequanter,1,2 M Shahla,2 C Aubert,2 Y Deniz,2 P Lothaire2 1Department of Oncology, Laboratory of Experimental Radiotherapy, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; 2Head and Neck Department, Hôpital André Vésale, CHU de Charleroi, Montigny le Tilleul, Belgium Introduction: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT to identify the presence of cervical lymph nodes metastases and extracapsular spread with histologic correlations in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.Methods: The medical records of 54 patients who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma before surgery were reviewed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis was performed to differentiate patients with cervical lymph node metastasis from those without lymph node metastasis. The same statistical analysis was done to differentiate cervical lymph nodes with extracapsular spread from those without extracapsular spread.Results: Metastatic disease was diagnosed histologically in 49% (26 of 54 of the patients. Extracapsular spread was present in ten of the 54 patients (19%. When ROC curve analysis and maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax values were used to detect cervical lymph node metastasis, the area under the ROC curve was 0.96 and the optimal cutoff value for SUVmax was 4.05 based on ROC curve analysis. The sensitivity and specificity of SUVmax for the detection of cervical lymph node metastasis using this cutoff point were 92% and 88%, respectively. When ROC curve analysis and SUVmax values were used in order to detect extracapsular spread, the area under the ROC curve was 0.86, and the optimal cutoff value for SUVmax was 4.15 based on ROC curve analysis. Using this cutoff value, the sensitivity and specificity of SUVmax for the detection of extracapsular spread were 83% and 88%, respectively.Conclusion: In our study, a median 18F-FDG PET/CT SUVmax cutoff

Prognostic power of biomarkers for short-term mortality in the elderly patients seen in Emergency Departments due to infections.

Science.gov (United States)

Julián-Jiménez, Agustín; Yañez, María Cecilia; González-Del Castillo, Juan; Salido-Mota, Manuel; Mora-Ordoñez, Begoña; Arranz-Nieto, María Jesús; Chanovas-Borras, Manuel R; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; Mòdol-Deltell, Josep María; Muñoz, Gema

2017-12-27

To analyse and compare 30-day mortality prognostic power of several biomarkers (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lactate, suPAR and pro-adremomedullin) in elderly patients seen in Emergency Departments (ED) due to infections. Secondly, if these could improve the prognostic accuracy of sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment [qSOFA]). A prospective, observational, multicentre and analytical study. Patients aged 75 years and older who were treated for infection in the ED of 8 participating hospitals were enrolled consecutively. An assessment was made of 25 independent variables (epidemiological, comorbidity, functional, clinical and analytical variables) that could influence short-term mortality (at 30 days). The study included 136 patients, 13 (9.5%) of whom died within 30 days of visiting the ED. MR-proADM is the biomarker with the best area under the curve ROC to predict 30-day mortality (0.864; 95% CI 0.775-0.997; P2.07nmol/l, sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 96%. The qSOFA score≥2 had an area under the curve ROC of 0.763 (95% CI 0.623-0.903; P=.002), sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 75%. The mixed model (MR-proADM plus qSOFA≥2) improved the area under the curve ROC to 0.878 (95% CI 0.749-1; P2.07nmol/l) increased the predictive power of qSOFA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Constructing and Classifying Email Networks from Raw Forensic Images

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-01

AUC value will be closer to 1. Figure 2.6 compares 3 different ROC curves. Figure 2.6. ROC curves compared. The dashed black curve at the top has the...main difference was the computation time. For example, on a 1275-node jazz musician network, the fast algorithm ran to completion in about one...königsberg bridges,” Scientific American , vol. 189, no. 1, pp. 66–70, 1953. [8] N. Biggs, E. K. Lloyd, and R. J. Wilson, Graph Theory, 1736-1936. Great

Modeling of Triangular Lattice Space Structures with Curved Battens

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tzikang; Wang, John T.

2005-01-01

Techniques for simulating an assembly process of lattice structures with curved battens were developed. The shape of the curved battens, the tension in the diagonals, and the compression in the battens were predicted for the assembled model. To be able to perform the assembly simulation, a cable-pulley element was implemented, and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses were performed. Three types of finite element models were created from assembled lattice structures for studying the effects of design and modeling variations on the load carrying capability. Discrepancies in the predictions from these models were discussed. The effects of diagonal constraint failure were also studied.

Virtual knotting in proteins and other open curves

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Alexander, Keith; Taylor, Alexander; Dennis, Mark

Long filaments naturally knot, from string to long-chain molecules. Knotting in a filament affects its properties, and may be very stable or disappear under slight manipulation. Knotting has been identified in protein backbones for which these mechanical constraints are of fundamental importance to their function, although they are open curves in which knots are not mathematically well defined; knotting can only be identified by closing the ends of the chain. We introduce a new method for resolving knotting in open curves using virtual knots, a wider class of topological objects that do not use a classical closure, capturing the topological ambiguity of open curves. Having analysed all proteins in the Protein Data Bank by this new scheme, we recover and extend previous knotting results, and identify topological interest in some new cases. The statistics of virtual knots in proteins are compared with those of Hamiltonian subchains on cubic lattices, identifying a regime of open curves in which the virtual knotting description is likely to be important. This work was supported by the Leverhulme Trust Programme Grant ``Scientific Properties of Complex Knots'' and the EPSRC.

VLT/X-shooter GRBs: Individual extinction curves of star-forming regions★

Science.gov (United States)

Zafar, T.; Watson, D.; Møller, P.; Selsing, J.; Fynbo, J. PU; Schady, P.; Wiersema, K.; Levan, A. J.; Heintz, K. E.; Postigo, A. de Ugarte; D'Elia, V.; Jakobsson, P.; Bolmer, J.; Japelj, J.; Covino, S.; Gomboc, A.; Cano, Z.

2018-05-01

The extinction profiles in Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) afterglow spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are usually described by the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC)-type extinction curve. In different empirical extinction laws, the total-to-selective extinction, RV, is an important quantity because of its relation to dust grain sizes and compositions. We here analyse a sample of 17 GRBs (0.34a single or broken power-law together with a parametric extinction law is used to model the individual SEDs. We find 10 cases with significant dust, where the derived extinction, AV, ranges from 0.1-1.0 mag. In four of those, the inferred extinction curves are consistent with the SMC curve. The GRB individual extinction curves have a flat RV distribution with an optimal weighted combined value of RV = 2.61 ± 0.08 (for seven broad coverage cases). The `average GRB extinction curve' is similar to, but slightly steeper than the typical SMC, and consistent with the SMC Bar extinction curve at ˜95% confidence level. The resultant steeper extinction curves imply populations of small grains, where large dust grains may be destroyed due to GRB activity. Another possibility could be that young age and/or lower metallicities of GRBs environments are responsible for the steeper curves.

Triceps and Subscapular Skinfold Thickness Percentiles and Cut-Offs for Overweight and Obesity in a Population-Based Sample of Schoolchildren and Adolescents in Bogota, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; López-Cifuentes, Mario Ferney; Correa-Bautista, Jorge Enrique; González-Ruíz, Katherine; González-Jiménez, Emilio; Córdoba-Rodríguez, Diana Paola; Vivas, Andrés; Triana-Reina, Hector Reynaldo; Schmidt-RioValle, Jacqueline

2016-01-01

The assessment of skinfold thickness is an objective measure of adiposity. The aims of this study were to establish Colombian smoothed centile charts and LMS L (Box–Cox transformation), M (median), and S (coefficient of variation) tables for triceps, subscapular, and triceps + subscapular skinfolds; appropriate cut-offs were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on a population-based sample of children and adolescents in Bogotá, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 9618 children and adolescents (55.7% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years). Triceps and subscapular skinfold measurements were obtained using standardized methods. We calculated the triceps + subscapular skinfold (T + SS) sum. Smoothed percentile curves for triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness were derived using the LMS method. ROC curve analyses were used to evaluate the optimal cut-off point of skinfold thickness for overweight and obesity, based on the International Obesity Task Force definitions. Subscapular and triceps skinfolds and T + SS were significantly higher in girls than in boys (p < 0.001). The ROC analysis showed that subscapular and triceps skinfolds and T + SS have a high discriminatory power in the identification of overweight and obesity in the sample population in this study. Our results provide sex- and age-specific normative reference standards for skinfold thickness values from a population from Bogotá, Colombia. PMID:27669294

Triceps and Subscapular Skinfold Thickness Percentiles and Cut-Offs for Overweight and Obesity in a Population-Based Sample of Schoolchildren and Adolescents in Bogota, Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robinson Ramírez-Vélez

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The assessment of skinfold thickness is an objective measure of adiposity. The aims of this study were to establish Colombian smoothed centile charts and LMS L (Box–Cox transformation, M (median, and S (coefficient of variation tables for triceps, subscapular, and triceps + subscapular skinfolds; appropriate cut-offs were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis based on a population-based sample of children and adolescents in Bogotá, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 9618 children and adolescents (55.7% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years. Triceps and subscapular skinfold measurements were obtained using standardized methods. We calculated the triceps + subscapular skinfold (T + SS sum. Smoothed percentile curves for triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness were derived using the LMS method. ROC curve analyses were used to evaluate the optimal cut-off point of skinfold thickness for overweight and obesity, based on the International Obesity Task Force definitions. Subscapular and triceps skinfolds and T + SS were significantly higher in girls than in boys (p < 0.001. The ROC analysis showed that subscapular and triceps skinfolds and T + SS have a high discriminatory power in the identification of overweight and obesity in the sample population in this study. Our results provide sex- and age-specific normative reference standards for skinfold thickness values from a population from Bogotá, Colombia.

Conducting Meta-Analyses Based on p Values

Science.gov (United States)

van Aert, Robbie C. M.; Wicherts, Jelte M.; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.

2016-01-01

Because of overwhelming evidence of publication bias in psychology, techniques to correct meta-analytic estimates for such bias are greatly needed. The methodology on which the p-uniform and p-curve methods are based has great promise for providing accurate meta-analytic estimates in the presence of publication bias. However, in this article, we show that in some situations, p-curve behaves erratically, whereas p-uniform may yield implausible estimates of negative effect size. Moreover, we show that (and explain why) p-curve and p-uniform result in overestimation of effect size under moderate-to-large heterogeneity and may yield unpredictable bias when researchers employ p-hacking. We offer hands-on recommendations on applying and interpreting results of meta-analyses in general and p-uniform and p-curve in particular. Both methods as well as traditional methods are applied to a meta-analysis on the effect of weight on judgments of importance. We offer guidance for applying p-uniform or p-curve using R and a user-friendly web application for applying p-uniform. PMID:27694466

Mediation Analysis in a Latent Growth Curve Modeling Framework

Science.gov (United States)

von Soest, Tilmann; Hagtvet, Knut A.

2011-01-01

This article presents several longitudinal mediation models in the framework of latent growth curve modeling and provides a detailed account of how such models can be constructed. Logical and statistical challenges that might arise when such analyses are conducted are also discussed. Specifically, we discuss how the initial status (intercept) and…

Screening for Sleep Apnoea in Mild Cognitive Impairment: The Utility of the Multivariable Apnoea Prediction Index

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Georgina Wilson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI is considered an “at risk” state for dementia and efforts are needed to target modifiable risk factors, of which Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA is one. This study aims to evaluate the predictive utility of the multivariate apnoea prediction index (MAPI, a patient self-report survey, to assess OSA in MCI. Methods. Thirty-seven participants with MCI and 37 age-matched controls completed the MAPI and underwent polysomnography (PSG. Correlations were used to compare the MAPI and PSG measures including oxygen desaturation index and apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC curve analyses were performed using various cut-off scores for apnoea severity. Results. In controls, there was a significant moderate correlation between higher MAPI scores and more severe apnoea (AHI: r=0.47, P=0.017. However, this relationship was not significant in the MCI sample. ROC curve analysis indicated much lower area under the curve (AUC in the MCI sample compared to the controls across all AHI severity cut-off scores. Conclusions. In older people, the MAPI moderately correlates with AHI severity but only in those who are cognitively intact. Development of further screening tools is required in order to accurately screen for OSA in MCI.

Correlation between model observer and human observer performance in CT imaging when lesion location is uncertain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leng, Shuai; Yu, Lifeng; Zhang, Yi; McCollough, Cynthia H. [Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street Southwest, Rochester, Minnesota 55905 (United States); Carter, Rickey [Department of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street Southwest, Rochester, Minnesota 55905 (United States); Toledano, Alicia Y. [Biostatistics Consulting, LLC, 10606 Wheatley Street, Kensington, Maryland 20895 (United States)

2013-08-15

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between model observer and human observer performance in CT imaging for the task of lesion detection and localization when the lesion location is uncertain.Methods: Two cylindrical rods (3-mm and 5-mm diameters) were placed in a 35 × 26 cm torso-shaped water phantom to simulate lesions with −15 HU contrast at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times on a 128-slice CT scanner at each of four dose levels (CTDIvol = 5.7, 11.4, 17.1, and 22.8 mGy). Regions of interest (ROIs) around each lesion were extracted to generate images with signal-present, with each ROI containing 128 × 128 pixels. Corresponding ROIs of signal-absent images were generated from images without lesion mimicking rods. The location of the lesion (rod) in each ROI was randomly distributed by moving the ROIs around each lesion. Human observer studies were performed by having three trained observers identify the presence or absence of lesions, indicating the lesion location in each image and scoring confidence for the detection task on a 6-point scale. The same image data were analyzed using a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) with Gabor channels. Internal noise was added to the decision variables for the model observer study. Area under the curve (AUC) of ROC and localization ROC (LROC) curves were calculated using a nonparametric approach. The Spearman's rank order correlation between the average performance of the human observers and the model observer performance was calculated for the AUC of both ROC and LROC curves for both the 3- and 5-mm diameter lesions.Results: In both ROC and LROC analyses, AUC values for the model observer agreed well with the average values across the three human observers. The Spearman's rank order correlation values for both ROC and LROC analyses for both the 3- and 5-mm diameter lesions were all 1.0, indicating perfect rank ordering agreement of the figures of merit (AUC

An in-vitro evaluation of Kodak Insight and Ektaspeed Plus film with a CMOS detector for natural proximal caries: ROC analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nair, M K; Nair, U P

2001-01-01

This study compared the diagnostic efficacy of Kodak Ektaspeed Plus film, Kodak Insight film, a newly introduced E/F-speed film, and Schick CMOS-APS digital sensor, with respect to caries detection in 92 proximal surfaces of extracted unrestored teeth, 51 of which were carious. Ground truth was evaluated histologically and the lesions classified as enamel or dentinal. Eight observers read the radiographs using a five-point confidence rating scale to record their diagnoses. Analyses using receiver operating characteristic curves revealed the areas under each curve that indicated the diagnostic accuracy (Ektaspeed Plus - 0.760, Insight - 0.778 and CMOS-APS sensor - 0.732). ANOVA revealed significant differences with respect to caries depth (p<0.031) and observers (p<0.0001). Weighted kappa analyses indicated moderate to substantial inter- and intra-observer agreement (0.42 and 0.66, respectively). The results suggest that none of the imaging modalities evaluated in this study differed in their diagnostic capabilities with respect to proximal decay detection and that the Insight film which was used with 20% less radiation exposure than Ektaspeed Plus film was as good as the other two sensors for this purpose.

Effect of age on the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes in a Chinese middle-aged and elderly population: The Shanghai Changfeng Study.

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Li Wu

Full Text Available Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ≥6.5% (or 48mmol/mol has been recommended as a new diagnostic criterion for diabetes; however, limited literature is available regarding the effect of age on the HbA1c for diagnosing diabetes and the causes for this age effect remain unknown. In this study, we investigated whether and why age affects the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes in a community-based Chinese population.In total, 4325 participants without previously known diabetes were enrolled in this study. Participants were stratified by age. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC was plotted for each age group and the area under the curve (AUC represented the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes defined by the plasma glucose criteria. The area under the ROC curve in each one-year age group was defined as AUCage. Multiple regression analyses were performed to identify factors inducing the association between age and AUCage based on the changes in the β and P values of age.The current threshold of HbA1c (≥6.5% or 48mmol/mol showed low sensitivity (35.6% and high specificity (98.9% in diagnosing diabetes. ROC curve analyses showed that the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c in the ≥75 years age group was significantly lower than that in the 45-54 years age group (AUC: 0.755 vs. 0.878; P<0.001. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the AUCage of HbA1c was negatively correlated with age (r = -0.557, P = 0.001. When adjusting the red blood cell (RBC count in the multiple regression model, the negative association between age and AUCage disappeared, with the regression coefficient of age reversed to 0.001 and the P value increased to 0.856.The diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes decreased with aging, and this age effect was induced by the decreasing RBC count with age. HbA1c is unsuitable for diagnosing diabetes in elderly individuals because of their physiologically decreased RBC count.

Bayesian modeling and inference for diagnostic accuracy and probability of disease based on multiple diagnostic biomarkers with and without a perfect reference standard.

Science.gov (United States)

Jafarzadeh, S Reza; Johnson, Wesley O; Gardner, Ian A

2016-03-15

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is used as a performance metric for quantitative tests. Although multiple biomarkers may be available for diagnostic or screening purposes, diagnostic accuracy is often assessed individually rather than in combination. In this paper, we consider the interesting problem of combining multiple biomarkers for use in a single diagnostic criterion with the goal of improving the diagnostic accuracy above that of an individual biomarker. The diagnostic criterion created from multiple biomarkers is based on the predictive probability of disease, conditional on given multiple biomarker outcomes. If the computed predictive probability exceeds a specified cutoff, the corresponding subject is allocated as 'diseased'. This defines a standard diagnostic criterion that has its own ROC curve, namely, the combined ROC (cROC). The AUC metric for cROC, namely, the combined AUC (cAUC), is used to compare the predictive criterion based on multiple biomarkers to one based on fewer biomarkers. A multivariate random-effects model is proposed for modeling multiple normally distributed dependent scores. Bayesian methods for estimating ROC curves and corresponding (marginal) AUCs are developed when a perfect reference standard is not available. In addition, cAUCs are computed to compare the accuracy of different combinations of biomarkers for diagnosis. The methods are evaluated using simulations and are applied to data for Johne's disease (paratuberculosis) in cattle. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fair lineups are better than biased lineups and showups, but not because they increase underlying discriminability.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Andrew M; Wells, Gary L; Lindsay, R C L; Penrod, Steven D

2017-04-01

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis has recently come in vogue for assessing the underlying discriminability and the applied utility of lineup procedures. Two primary assumptions underlie recommendations that ROC analysis be used to assess the applied utility of lineup procedures: (a) ROC analysis of lineups measures underlying discriminability, and (b) the procedure that produces superior underlying discriminability produces superior applied utility. These same assumptions underlie a recently derived diagnostic-feature detection theory, a theory of discriminability, intended to explain recent patterns observed in ROC comparisons of lineups. We demonstrate, however, that these assumptions are incorrect when ROC analysis is applied to lineups. We also demonstrate that a structural phenomenon of lineups, differential filler siphoning, and not the psychological phenomenon of diagnostic-feature detection, explains why lineups are superior to showups and why fair lineups are superior to biased lineups. In the process of our proofs, we show that computational simulations have assumed, unrealistically, that all witnesses share exactly the same decision criteria. When criterial variance is included in computational models, differential filler siphoning emerges. The result proves dissociation between ROC curves and underlying discriminability: Higher ROC curves for lineups than for showups and for fair than for biased lineups despite no increase in underlying discriminability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Consideration of uncertainties in CCDF risk curves in safety oriented decision making processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, E.; Tadmor, J.

1988-01-01

In recent years, some of the results of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (i.e. the magnitudes of the various adverse health effects and other effects of potential accidents in nuclear power plants) have usually been presented in Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function curves, widely known as CCDF risk curves. CCDF curves are characteristic of probabilistic accident analyses and consequence calculations, although, in many cases, the codes producing the CCDF curves consist of a mixture of both probabilistic and deterministic calculations. One of the main difficulties in the process of PRA is the problem of uncertainties associated with the risk assessments. The uncertainties, as expressed in CCDF risk curves can be classified into two main categories: (a) uncertainties expressed by the CCDF risk curve itself due to its probabilistic nature and - (b) the uncertainty band of CCDF risk curves. The band consists of a ''family of CCDF curves'' which represents the risks (e.g. early/late fatalities) evaluated at various levels of confidence for a specific Plant-Site Combination (PSC) i.e. a certain nuclear power plant located at a certain site. The reasons why a family of curves rather than a single curve represents the risk of a certain PSC have been discussed. Generally, the uncertainty band of CCDF curves is limited by the 95% (''conservative'') and the 5% curves. In most cases the 50% (median, ''best estimate'') curve is also shown because scientists tend to believe that it represents the ''realistic'' (or real) risk of the plant

Proteins analysed as virtual knots

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Keith; Taylor, Alexander J.; Dennis, Mark R.

2017-02-01

Long, flexible physical filaments are naturally tangled and knotted, from macroscopic string down to long-chain molecules. The existence of knotting in a filament naturally affects its configuration and properties, and may be very stable or disappear rapidly under manipulation and interaction. Knotting has been previously identified in protein backbone chains, for which these mechanical constraints are of fundamental importance to their molecular functionality, despite their being open curves in which the knots are not mathematically well defined; knotting can only be identified by closing the termini of the chain somehow. We introduce a new method for resolving knotting in open curves using virtual knots, which are a wider class of topological objects that do not require a classical closure and so naturally capture the topological ambiguity inherent in open curves. We describe the results of analysing proteins in the Protein Data Bank by this new scheme, recovering and extending previous knotting results, and identifying topological interest in some new cases. The statistics of virtual knots in protein chains are compared with those of open random walks and Hamiltonian subchains on cubic lattices, identifying a regime of open curves in which the virtual knotting description is likely to be important.

Methodology for quantitative evaluation of diagnostic medical imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.

1980-01-01

This report deals with the evaluation of the performance of diagnostic medical imaging procedures using the Receiver Operating Characteristic or ROC analysis. The development of new tests for the statistical significance of apparent differences between ROC curves is discussed

Binary and multi-category ratings in a laboratory observer performance study: a comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Gur, David; Bandos, Andriy I; King, Jill L; Klym, Amy H; Cohen, Cathy S; Hakim, Christiane M; Hardesty, Lara A; Ganott, Marie A; Perrin, Ronald L; Poller, William R; Shah, Ratan; Sumkin, Jules H; Wallace, Luisa P; Rockette, Howard E

2008-10-01

The authors investigated radiologists, performances during retrospective interpretation of screening mammograms when using a binary decision whether to recall a woman for additional procedures or not and compared it with their receiver operating characteristic (ROC) type performance curves using a semi-continuous rating scale. Under an Institutional Review Board approved protocol nine experienced radiologists independently rated an enriched set of 155 examinations that they had not personally read in the clinic, mixed with other enriched sets of examinations that they had individually read in the clinic, using both a screening BI-RADS rating scale (recall/not recall) and a semi-continuous ROC type rating scale (0 to 100). The vertical distance, namely the difference in sensitivity levels at the same specificity levels, between the empirical ROC curve and the binary operating point were computed for each reader. The vertical distance averaged over all readers was used to assess the proximity of the performance levels under the binary and ROC-type rating scale. There does not appear to be any systematic tendency of the readers towards a better performance when using either of the two rating approaches, namely four readers performed better using the semi-continuous rating scale, four readers performed better with the binary scale, and one reader had the point exactly on the empirical ROC curve. Only one of the nine readers had a binary "operating point" that was statistically distant from the same reader's empirical ROC curve. Reader-specific differences ranged from -0.046 to 0.128 with an average width of the corresponding 95% confidence intervals of 0.2 and p-values ranging for individual readers from 0.050 to 0.966. On average, radiologists performed similarly when using the two rating scales in that the average distance between the run in individual reader's binary operating point and their ROC curve was close to zero. The 95% confidence interval for the fixed

Calibration Curves for Biological Dosimetry by Fluorescence In situ Hybridisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stonati, L.; Durante, M.; Gensabella, G.; Gialanella, G.; Grossi, G.F.; Pugliese, M.; Scampoli, P.; Sgura, A.; Testa, A.; Tanzarella, C.

2001-01-01

Dose-response curves were measured for the induction of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes after acute exposure in vitro to 60 Co γ rays. Blood was obtained from four different healthy donors, and chromosomes were either observed at metaphase, following colcemid accumulation, or prematurely condensed by calyculin A. Cells were analysed in three different Italian laboratories. Chromosomes 1, 2, and 4 were painted, and simple-type interchanges between painted and non-painted chromosomes were scored in cells exposed in the dose range 0.1-3.0 Gy. The chemical-induced premature chromosome condensation method was also used combined with chromosome painting (chromosome 4 only) to determine calibration curves for high dose exposures (up to 20 Gy X rays). Calibration curves described in this paper will be used in our laboratories for biological dosimetry by fluorescence in situ hybridisation. (author)

Salivary oxytocin concentrations in response to running, sexual self-stimulation, breastfeeding and the TSST: The Regensburg Oxytocin Challenge (ROC) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jong, Trynke R de; Menon, Rohit; Bludau, Anna; Grund, Thomas; Biermeier, Verena; Klampfl, Stefanie M; Jurek, Benjamin; Bosch, Oliver J; Hellhammer, Juliane; Neumann, Inga D

2015-12-01

Intranasal oxytocin (OXT) application is emerging as a potential treatment for socio-emotional disorders associated with abnormalities in OXT system (re-) activity. The crucial identification of patients with such abnormalities could be streamlined by the assessment of basal and stimulus-induced OXT concentrations in saliva, using a simple, stress-free sampling procedure (i.e. an OXT challenge test). We therefore established the Regensburg Oxytocin Challenge (ROC) test to further validate salivary OXT concentrations as a practical, reliable and sensitive biomarker. OXT concentrations were quantified by radioimmunoassay in samples collected at home by healthy adult male and female volunteers before and after running ("Run") or sexual self-stimulation ("Sex"). In lactating women, salivary OXT concentrations were quantified before, during and after breastfeeding. Salivary OXT along with salivary cortisol and heart rate were monitored in healthy adult participants undergoing the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). The home-based "Run" and "Sex" challenges as well as the laboratory-based TSST caused quantifiable, rapid, and consistent increases in salivary OXT (approximately 2.5-fold after 10-15min), which were similar for men and women. Breastfeeding did not result in measurably increased salivary OXT levels, probably because the short pulses of OXT release characteristic for lactation were missed. Taken together, ROC tests reliably assess the responsiveness of the OXT system (i.e., the increase in salivary OXT concentrations as compared to basal levels) to challenges such as "Run" and "Sex" at home or psychosocial stress (TSST) in the laboratory. Further studies with larger sample numbers are essentially needed in order to reveal individual differences in ROC test outcomes depending on, for example, genetic or environmental factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PMAnalyzer: a new web interface for bacterial growth curve analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuevas, Daniel A; Edwards, Robert A

2017-06-15

Bacterial growth curves are essential representations for characterizing bacteria metabolism within a variety of media compositions. Using high-throughput, spectrophotometers capable of processing tens of 96-well plates, quantitative phenotypic information can be easily integrated into the current data structures that describe a bacterial organism. The PMAnalyzer pipeline performs a growth curve analysis to parameterize the unique features occurring within microtiter wells containing specific growth media sources. We have expanded the pipeline capabilities and provide a user-friendly, online implementation of this automated pipeline. PMAnalyzer version 2.0 provides fast automatic growth curve parameter analysis, growth identification and high resolution figures of sample-replicate growth curves and several statistical analyses. PMAnalyzer v2.0 can be found at https://edwards.sdsu.edu/pmanalyzer/ . Source code for the pipeline can be found on GitHub at https://github.com/dacuevas/PMAnalyzer . Source code for the online implementation can be found on GitHub at https://github.com/dacuevas/PMAnalyzerWeb . dcuevas08@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Stenting for curved lesions using a novel curved balloon: Preliminary experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomita, Hideshi; Higaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Toshiki; Fujii, Takanari; Fujimoto, Kazuto

2015-08-01

Stenting may be a compelling approach to dilating curved lesions in congenital heart diseases. However, balloon-expandable stents, which are commonly used for congenital heart diseases, are usually deployed in a straight orientation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of stenting with a novel curved balloon considered to provide better conformability to the curved-angled lesion. In vitro experiments: A Palmaz Genesis(®) stent (Johnson & Johnson, Cordis Co, Bridgewater, NJ, USA) mounted on the Goku(®) curve (Tokai Medical Co. Nagoya, Japan) was dilated in vitro to observe directly the behavior of the stent and balloon assembly during expansion. Animal experiment: A short Express(®) Vascular SD (Boston Scientific Co, Marlborough, MA, USA) stent and a long Express(®) Vascular LD stent (Boston Scientific) mounted on the curved balloon were deployed in the curved vessel of a pig to observe the effect of stenting in vivo. In vitro experiments: Although the stent was dilated in a curved fashion, stent and balloon assembly also rotated conjointly during expansion of its curved portion. In the primary stenting of the short stent, the stent was dilated with rotation of the curved portion. The excised stent conformed to the curved vessel. As the long stent could not be negotiated across the mid-portion with the balloon in expansion when it started curving, the mid-portion of the stent failed to expand fully. Furthermore, the balloon, which became entangled with the stent strut, could not be retrieved even after complete deflation. This novel curved balloon catheter might be used for implantation of the short stent in a curved lesion; however, it should not be used for primary stenting of the long stent. Post-dilation to conform the stent to the angled vessel would be safer than primary stenting irrespective of stent length. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The status of hazardous waste management in Taiwan, R.O.C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, L.L.G.

1989-01-01

A large quantity of industrial waste (such as waste oils FCB's, cadmium, etc.) is produced daily in Taiwan, R.O.C.. A 1985 survey found that the amount of waste generated equalled approximately 30 million tons per year. Hazardous waste represents 9.7% of this total. Based on statistics from this same 1985 survey, 72% of the factories disposed of their waste without intermediate treatment. This paper reports that since most methods used for treatment of hazardous wastes were implemented incorrectly, the proper treatment of such waste has become the focal point of environmental protection in Taiwan. From July, 1987 the short-term program for industrial waste control has had as its first priority the control of toxic, infectious and corrosive hazardous waste. At the same time, a registration system for permission, reporting and results inspection for hazardous wastes is being developed. An industrial waste exchange and reclamation system is also being developed. It is predicted that a complete hazardous waste management program can be developed within the next four years

Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

2014-12-01

In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

An investigation on vulnerability assessment of steel structures with thin steel shear wall through development of fragility curves

OpenAIRE

Mohsen Gerami; Saeed Ghaffari; Amir Mahdi Heidari Tafreshi

2017-01-01

Fragility curves play an important role in damage assessment of buildings. Probability of damage induction to the structure against seismic events can be investigated upon generation of afore mentioned curves. In current research 360 time history analyses have been carried out on structures of 3, 10 and 20 story height and subsequently fragility curves have been adopted. The curves are developed based on two indices of inter story drifts and equivalent strip axial strains of the shear wall. T...

JUMPING THE CURVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René Pellissier

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the notion ofjump ing the curve,following from Handy 's S-curve onto a new curve with new rules policies and procedures. . It claims that the curve does not generally lie in wait but has to be invented by leadership. The focus of this paper is the identification (mathematically and inferentially ofthat point in time, known as the cusp in catastrophe theory, when it is time to change - pro-actively, pre-actively or reactively. These three scenarios are addressed separately and discussed in terms ofthe relevance ofeach.

Discriminatory power of MRI for differentiation of adrenal non-adenomas vs adenomas evaluated by means of ROC analysis: Can biopsy be obviated?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slapa, R.Z.; Jakubowski, W.; Krolicki, L. [Department of Imaging, Warsaw Medical School (Poland); Januszewicz, A. [Department of Hypertension, National Institute of Cardiology, Warsaw (Poland); Kasperlik-Zaluska, A.A. [Department of Endocrinology, Center for Postgraduate Medical Education, Warsaw (Poland); Dabrowska, E.; Feltynowski, T. [Department of Hypertension, Warsaw Medical School, Warsaw (Poland); Fijuth, J. [Department of Teleradiotherapy, Institute of Oncology, Warsaw (Poland); Tarnawski, R. [Department of Radiotherapy, Institute of Oncology, Gliwice Branch, Gliwice (Poland)

2000-01-01

The purpose of our study was to evaluate the discriminatory power of MRI in high-field magnet (1.5 T) for differentiation of adrenal non-adenomas vs adenomas assessing the following parameters separately and in combination: mean diameter of adrenal mass; previously described and new ratios as well as index calculated from signal intensity (SI) on SE T2-weighted images, chemical shift imaging (CSI), and Gd-DTPA-enhanced dynamic studies. One hundred eight adrenal masses (36 non-hyperfunctioning adenomas, 27 pheochromocytomas, 23 aldosterone-secreting adenomas, 20 malignant masses and 2 cortisol-secreting adenomas) in 95 patients were evaluated with SE sequences, CSI and Gd-DTPA dynamic studies. Indices and ratios of SI for all examined MRI methods were calculated and examined retrospectively for significance of differences between the groups with calculation of sensitivity and specificity. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis of calculated parameters in combination was performed. The multifactorial analysis of all four parameters, including size of the tumor, T2{sub liver} index, CSI ratio reflecting lipid content in the tumor and Wo{sub max/last} ratio reflecting maximal washout of contrast agent from the tumor had 100 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity in characterization of adrenal non-adenoma. The best performance of combination of mean tumor diameter with single MRI SI parameter was achieved in combination with T2{sub liver} index for all adrenal masses (area under ROC 0.987) and CSI ratio for non-hyperfunctioning adrenal masses (area under ROC 0.991). Magnetic resonance imaging enables sensitive and specific diagnosis of adrenal non-adenoma. (orig.)

Improving the prediction of pathologic outcomes in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy: the value of prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), prostate health index (phi) and sarcosine.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferro, Matteo; Lucarelli, Giuseppe; Bruzzese, Dario; Perdonà, Sisto; Mazzarella, Claudia; Perruolo, Giuseppe; Marino, Ada; Cosimato, Vincenzo; Giorgio, Emilia; Tagliamonte, Virginia; Bottero, Danilo; De Cobelli, Ottavio; Terracciano, Daniela

2015-02-01

Several efforts have been made to find biomarkers that could help clinicians to preoperatively determine prostate cancer (PCa) pathological characteristics and choose the best therapeutic approach, avoiding over-treatment. On this effort, prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), prostate health index (phi) and sarcosine have been presented as promising tools. We evaluated the ability of these biomarkers to predict the pathologic PCa characteristics within a prospectively collected contemporary cohort of patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) for clinically localized PCa at a single high-volume Institution. The prognostic performance of PCA3, phi and sarcosine were evaluated in 78 patients undergoing RP for biopsy-proven PCa. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses tested the accuracy (area under the curve (AUC)) in predicting PCa pathological characteristics. Decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to assess the clinical benefit of the three biomarkers. We found that PCA3, phi and sarcosine levels were significantly higher in patients with tumor volume (TV)≥0.5 ml, pathologic Gleason sum (GS)≥7 and pT3 disease (all p-values≤0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that phi is an accurate predictor of high-stage (AUC 0.85 [0.77-0.93]), high-grade (AUC 0.83 [0.73-0.93]) and high-volume disease (AUC 0.94 [0.88-0.99]). Sarcosine showed a comparable AUC (0.85 [0.76-0.94]) only for T3 stage prediction, whereas PCA3 score showed lower AUCs, ranging from 0.74 (for GS) to 0.86 (for TV). PCA3, phi and sarcosine are predictors of PCa characteristics at final pathology. Successful clinical translation of these findings would reduce the frequency of surveillance biopsies and may enhance acceptance of active surveillance (AS). Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Predictive value of pulse pressure variation for fluid responsiveness in septic patients using lung-protective ventilation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, F G R; Bafi, A T; Nascente, A P M; Assunção, M; Mazza, B; Azevedo, L C P; Machado, F R

2013-03-01

The applicability of pulse pressure variation (ΔPP) to predict fluid responsiveness using lung-protective ventilation strategies is uncertain in clinical practice. We designed this study to evaluate the accuracy of this parameter in predicting the fluid responsiveness of septic patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (TV) (6 ml kg(-1)). Forty patients after the resuscitation phase of severe sepsis and septic shock who were mechanically ventilated with 6 ml kg(-1) were included. The ΔPP was obtained automatically at baseline and after a standardized fluid challenge (7 ml kg(-1)). Patients whose cardiac output increased by more than 15% were considered fluid responders. The predictive values of ΔPP and static variables [right atrial pressure (RAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP)] were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Thirty-four patients had characteristics consistent with acute lung injury or acute respiratory distress syndrome and were ventilated with high levels of PEEP [median (inter-quartile range) 10.0 (10.0-13.5)]. Nineteen patients were considered fluid responders. The RAP and PAOP significantly increased, and ΔPP significantly decreased after volume expansion. The ΔPP performance [ROC curve area: 0.91 (0.82-1.0)] was better than that of the RAP [ROC curve area: 0.73 (0.59-0.90)] and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure [ROC curve area: 0.58 (0.40-0.76)]. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the best cut-off for ΔPP was 6.5%, with a sensitivity of 0.89, specificity of 0.90, positive predictive value of 0.89, and negative predictive value of 0.90. Automatized ΔPP accurately predicted fluid responsiveness in septic patients ventilated with low TV.

Variability of the Wind Turbine Power Curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahesh M. Bandi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Wind turbine power curves are calibrated by turbine manufacturers under requirements stipulated by the International Electrotechnical Commission to provide a functional mapping between the mean wind speed v ¯ and the mean turbine power output P ¯ . Wind plant operators employ these power curves to estimate or forecast wind power generation under given wind conditions. However, it is general knowledge that wide variability exists in these mean calibration values. We first analyse how the standard deviation in wind speed σ v affects the mean P ¯ and the standard deviation σ P of wind power. We find that the magnitude of wind power fluctuations scales as the square of the mean wind speed. Using data from three planetary locations, we find that the wind speed standard deviation σ v systematically varies with mean wind speed v ¯ , and in some instances, follows a scaling of the form σ v = C × v ¯ α ; C being a constant and α a fractional power. We show that, when applicable, this scaling form provides a minimal parameter description of the power curve in terms of v ¯ alone. Wind data from different locations establishes that (in instances when this scaling exists the exponent α varies with location, owing to the influence of local environmental conditions on wind speed variability. Since manufacturer-calibrated power curves cannot account for variability influenced by local conditions, this variability translates to forecast uncertainty in power generation. We close with a proposal for operators to perform post-installation recalibration of their turbine power curves to account for the influence of local environmental factors on wind speed variability in order to reduce the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. Understanding the relationship between wind’s speed and its variability is likely to lead to lower costs for the integration of wind power into the electric grid.

Dual Smarandache Curves of a Timelike Curve lying on Unit dual Lorentzian Sphere

OpenAIRE

Kahraman, Tanju; Hüseyin Ugurlu, Hasan

2016-01-01

In this paper, we give Darboux approximation for dual Smarandache curves of time like curve on unit dual Lorentzian sphere. Firstly, we define the four types of dual Smarandache curves of a timelike curve lying on dual Lorentzian sphere.

ECM using Edwards curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bernstein, Daniel J.; Birkner, Peter; Lange, Tanja

2013-01-01

-arithmetic level are as follows: (1) use Edwards curves instead of Montgomery curves; (2) use extended Edwards coordinates; (3) use signed-sliding-window addition-subtraction chains; (4) batch primes to increase the window size; (5) choose curves with small parameters and base points; (6) choose curves with large...

PROMETHEE-ROC Model for Assessing the Readiness of Technology for Generating Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle Costa Morais

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper puts forward a proposal for a multicriteria decision model for prioritizing technologies that are critical for power generation in the energy sector. It deals with the context of imprecise information regarding importance of criteria; then an integration of surrogate weights with the PROMETHEE method is undertaken in order to approach this context. In this type of strategic decision problem, how to deal with imprecise information is always a challenge. The use of surrogate weights presents a significant contribution and it can facilitate the assignment of weights in a decision ranking problem, which requires the decision-maker (DM to order the criteria by their importance for the decision problem. Thus for this situation of assessing the readiness of technology for generating energy where the DM is able and feels comfortable to order all criteria by their relative importance, the proposed approach of surrogate weights in the PROMETHEE II method, the PROMETHEE-ROC model, is shown to be an adequate approach.

In the assessment of supratentorial glioma grade: The combined role of multivoxel proton MR spectroscopy and diffusion tensor imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou, Q.-G.; Xu, H.-B.; Liu, F.; Guo, W.; Kong, X.-C.; Wu, Y.

2011-01-01

Aim: To detect a difference in the parameters derived from proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 1 H-MRS) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) between low-grade and high-grade gliomas, and to evaluate whether the combination of these two techniques can improve the diagnostic accuracy of conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in supratentorial glioma grading. Materials and methods: Thirty patients with histologically proved supratentorial brain gliomas (12 low grade, 18 high grade) were prospectively evaluated with contrast material-enhanced MRI, DTI, and multivoxel 1 H-MRS (135 ms echo time). The tumour grades determined using the three methods were then compared with those obtained at histopathology. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to determine the optimum thresholds for glioma grading. Independent sample t-test, Spearman's rank correlation, and the Fisher's exact test were also carried out for statistical analysis. p -6 mm 2 /s for the calculated ADC value, corresponding to the maximum Youden index from the ROC curve of the above-selected parameters, the resultant sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values (PPVs), negative predictive values (NPVs), and Kappa values were all higher and the fraction of misclassified tumour was lower when compared with conventional MRI. However, only NAA/Cho and ADC calculation contributed to the significant difference (p < 0.01) in the assessment of glioma grade compared to conventional MRI alone, and the grading results of statistical tests comparing those two parameters were highly consistent (kappa value = 0.798). Conclusion: Thresholds for NAA/Cho and calculated ADC values, corresponding to maximum Youden index from ROC curve analyses, helped to improve the accuracy of supratentorial glioma grading when compared with conventional MRI alone. In addition, a combination of NAA/Cho and ADC calculation were more useful together than each alone in a clinical setting to evaluate

MicroRNA-126:a promising novel biomarker in peripheral blood for diabetic retinopathy

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Li-Li; Qin; Mei-Xia; An; Yan-Li; Liu; Han-Chun; Xu; Zhi-Qing; Lu

2017-01-01

AIM:To investigate the content of serum micro RNA-126(mi R-126) and its role in screening retinal endothelial injury and early diagnosis of proliferative diabetic retinopathy.METHODS:The study included 184 serum samples,59 samples from healthy individuals,44 samples from diabetes mellitus(DM) patients without diabetic retinopathy(NDR),42 from non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy(NPDR) patients and 39 samples from proliferative diabetic retinopathy(PDR) patients.The expression of mi R-126 was evaluated using a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction.RESULTS:The serum content of mi R-126 declined as the damage degree in the retina.There was significant difference between the two retinopathy groups(P0.05).Receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) analyses indicated that serum mi R-126 had significant diagnostic value for PDR.It yielded an area under the curve(AUC) of ROC of 0.976 with 81.21% sensitivity and 90.34% specificity in discriminating PDR from healthy controls,and an AUC of ROC of 0.919 with 84.75% sensitivity and 94.41% specificity in discriminating NDR and NPDR from healthy controls.When the diagnostic threshold was greater than or equal to 8.43,there was an increase in the possibility of NPDR.When the content of mi R-126 was less than or equal to 5.02,the possibility of the occurrence of PDR increased.CONCLUSION:Serum mi R-126 can serve as a non-invasive biomarker for screening retinal endothelial injury and early diagnosis PDR.

Composite beam analysis linear analysis of naturally curved and twisted anisotropic beams

Science.gov (United States)

Borri, Marco; Ghiringhelli, Gian L.; Merlini, Teodoro

1992-05-01

The aim of this report is to present a consistent theory for the deformation of a naturally curved and twisted anisotropic beam. The proposed formulation naturally extends the classical Saint-Venant approach to the case of curved and twisted anisotropic beams. The mathematical model developed under the assumption of span-wise uniform cross-section, curvature and twist, can take into account any kind of elastic coupling due to the material properties and the curved geometry. The consistency of the presented math-model and its generality about the cross-sectional shape, make it a useful tool even in a preliminary design optimization context such as the aeroelastic tailoring of helicopter rotor blades. The advantage of the present procedure is that it only requires a two-dimensional discretization; thus, very detailed analyses can be performed and interlaminar stresses between laminae can be evaluated. Such analyses would be extremely time consuming if performed with standard finite element codes: that prevents their recursive use as for example when optimizing a beam design. Moreover, as a byproduct of the proposed formulation, one obtains the constitutive law of the cross-section in terms of stress resultant and moment and their conjugate strain measures. This constitutive law takes into account any kind of elastic couplings, e.g., torsion-tension, tension-shear, bending-shear, and constitutes a fundamental input in aeroelastic analyses of helicopter blades. Four simple examples are given in order to show the principal features of the method.

ROC evaluation of SPECT myocardial lesion detectability with and without single iteration non-uniform Chang attenuation compensation using an anthropomorphic female phantom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, S.; Jaszczak, R.J.; Duke Univ. Medical Center, Durham, NC; Gilland, D.R.; Turkington, T.G.; Coleman, R.E.; Tsui, B.M.W.; Metz, C.E.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this work was to evaluate lesion detectability with and without nonuniform attenuation compensation (AC) in myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging in women using an anthropomorphic phantom and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) methodology. Breast attenuation causes artifacts in reconstructed images and may increase the difficulty of diagnosis of myocardial perfusion imaging in women. The null hypothesis tested using the ROC study was that nonuniform AC does not change the lesion detectability in myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging in women. The authors used a filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction algorithm and Chang's single iteration method for AC. In conclusion, with the proposed myocardial defect model nuclear medicine physicians demonstrated no significant difference for the detection of the anterior wall defect; however, a greater accuracy for the detection of the inferior wall defect was observed without nonuniform AC than with it. Medical physicists did not demonstrate any statistically significant difference in defect detection accuracy with or without nonuniform AC in the female phantom

A theoretical description of complex thermoluminescence curves: Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kantorovich, L.N.; Fogel, G.M.; Gotlib, V.I.

1988-01-01

Thermoluminescence kinetics has been discussed within the framework of a band model assuming an extensive retrapping of charge carriers in comparison with their recombination. Assuming that a luminophor has one type of recombination centre and an arbitrary number of trapping centres we succeeded in analysing complex thermoluminescence curves with an arbitrary number of peaks. It has been shown for an elementary peak that its form almost coincides with the Randall-Wilkins curve, and its intensity is proportional to the square of the absorbed dose. The effect of both the processes of localised charge carriers accumulation (irradiation and isothermal decay) and their redistribution on trapping centres during the thermoluminescence process have been dealt with taking into account the form and intensity of the thermoluminescence peaks. (author)

Análisis de puntos de rocío y contenidos de humedad de mezclas gaseosas N2-H2O y CH4-H2O

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Bogoya M.

1995-01-01

Full Text Available EI conocimiento actual del contenido de humedad de mezclas gaseosas saturadas es aún incompleto, especialmente en la región de altas presiones y bajas temperaturas. Por tanto se realizaron medidas experimentales de punta de rocío con los sistemas nitrógeno-agua y metano-agua, a presiones de 3 y 6 MPa y a temperaturas de 258 K a 288 K. Los puntos de rocío se determinaron con el método del espejo de punta de rocío y los contenidos de humedad por medio de la titulación de Karl-Fischer. Los valores experimentales se compararon con correlaciones de la literatura. El método de Sharma-Campbell resultó ser la mejor descripción del sistema nitrógeno-agua. Para temperaturas inferiores a 273 K la suposición de comportamiento de gas ideal mostro ser suficiente para el sistema metano-agua, mientras que para temperaturas superiores a 273 K los cálculos mediante el principio de estados correspondientes con dos parámetros, en combinación con una corrección de fugacidad, manifestó ser la mejor.

A novel teaching tool using dynamic cues improves visualisation of chest lesions by naive observers

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamed Ali, M. A.; Toomey, R. J.; Ryan, J. T.; Cuffe, F. C.; Brennan, P. C.

2009-02-01

Introduction Dynamic cueing is an effective way of stimulating perception of regions of interest within radiological images. This study explores the impact of a novel teaching tool using dynamic cueing for lesion detection on plain chest radiographs. Materials and methods Observer performance studies were carried out where 36 novices examined 30 chest images in random order. Half of these contained between one and three simulated pulmonary nodules. Three groups were investigated: A (control: no teaching tool), B (retested immediately after undergoing the teaching tool) and C (retested a week after undergoing the teaching tool). The teaching tool involved dynamically displaying the same images with and without lesions. Results were compared using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), sensitivity and specificity analyses. Results The second reading showed significantly greater area under the ROC curve (Az value) (pchest radiographs in the short term.

Learning curve for radical retropubic prostatectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando J. A. Saito

2011-02-01

Full Text Available PURPOSE: The learning curve is a period in which the surgical procedure is performed with difficulty and slowness, leading to a higher risk of complications and reduced effectiveness due the surgeon's inexperience. We sought to analyze the residents' learning curve for open radical prostatectomy (RP in a training program. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective study from June 2006 to January 2008 in the academic environment of the University of São Paulo. Five residents operated on 184 patients during a four-month rotation in the urologic oncology division, mentored by the same physician assistants. We performed sequential analyses according to the number of surgeries, as follows: = 10, 11 to 19, 20 to 28, and = 29. RESULTS: The residents performed an average of 37 RP each. The average psa was 9.3 ng/mL and clinical stage T1c in 71% of the patients. The pathological stage was pT2 (73%, pT3 (23%, pT4 (4%, and 46% of the patients had a Gleason score 7 or higher. In all surgeries, the average operative time and estimated blood loss was 140 minutes and 488 mL. Overall, 7.2% of patients required blood transfusion, and 23% had positive surgical margins. CONCLUSION: During the initial RP learning curve, we found a significant reduction in the operative time; blood transfusion during the procedures and positive surgical margin rate were stable in our series.

Analysis of glottal source parameters in Parkinsonian speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanratty, Jane; Deegan, Catherine; Walsh, Mary; Kirkpatrick, Barry

2016-08-01

Diagnosis and monitoring of Parkinson's disease has a number of challenges as there is no definitive biomarker despite the broad range of symptoms. Research is ongoing to produce objective measures that can either diagnose Parkinson's or act as an objective decision support tool. Recent research on speech based measures have demonstrated promising results. This study aims to investigate the characteristics of the glottal source signal in Parkinsonian speech. An experiment is conducted in which a selection of glottal parameters are tested for their ability to discriminate between healthy and Parkinsonian speech. Results for each glottal parameter are presented for a database of 50 healthy speakers and a database of 16 speakers with Parkinsonian speech symptoms. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to analyse the results and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values were used to quantify the performance of each glottal parameter. The results indicate that glottal parameters can be used to discriminate between healthy and Parkinsonian speech, although results varied for each parameter tested. For the task of separating healthy and Parkinsonian speech, 2 out of the 7 glottal parameters tested produced AUC values of over 0.9.

Developmental trajectories of adolescent popularity: a growth curve modelling analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cillessen, Antonius H N; Borch, Casey

2006-12-01

Growth curve modelling was used to examine developmental trajectories of sociometric and perceived popularity across eight years in adolescence, and the effects of gender, overt aggression, and relational aggression on these trajectories. Participants were 303 initially popular students (167 girls, 136 boys) for whom sociometric data were available in Grades 5-12. The popularity and aggression constructs were stable but non-overlapping developmental dimensions. Growth curve models were run with SAS MIXED in the framework of the multilevel model for change [Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press]. Sociometric popularity showed a linear change trajectory; perceived popularity showed nonlinear change. Overt aggression predicted low sociometric popularity but an increase in perceived popularity in the second half of the study. Relational aggression predicted a decrease in sociometric popularity, especially for girls, and continued high-perceived popularity for both genders. The effect of relational aggression on perceived popularity was the strongest around the transition from middle to high school. The importance of growth curve models for understanding adolescent social development was discussed, as well as specific issues and challenges of growth curve analyses with sociometric data.

Diagnostic accuracy of atypical p-ANCA in autoimmune hepatitis using ROC- and multivariate regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Terjung, B; Bogsch, F; Klein, R; Söhne, J; Reichel, C; Wasmuth, J-C; Beuers, U; Sauerbruch, T; Spengler, U

2004-09-29

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (atypical p-ANCA) are detected at high prevalence in sera from patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), but their diagnostic relevance for AIH has not been systematically evaluated so far. Here, we studied sera from 357 patients with autoimmune (autoimmune hepatitis n=175, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) n=35, primary biliary cirrhosis n=45), non-autoimmune chronic liver disease (alcoholic liver cirrhosis n=62; chronic hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) n=21) or healthy controls (n=19) for the presence of various non-organ specific autoantibodies. Atypical p-ANCA, antinuclear antibodies (ANA), antibodies against smooth muscles (SMA), antibodies against liver/kidney microsomes (anti-Lkm1) and antimitochondrial antibodies (AMA) were detected by indirect immunofluorescence microscopy, antibodies against the M2 antigen (anti-M2), antibodies against soluble liver antigen (anti-SLA/LP) and anti-Lkm1 by using enzyme linked immunosorbent assays. To define the diagnostic precision of the autoantibodies, results of autoantibody testing were analyzed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and forward conditional logistic regression analysis. Atypical p-ANCA were detected at high prevalence in sera from patients with AIH (81%) and PSC (94%). ROC- and logistic regression analysis revealed atypical p-ANCA and SMA, but not ANA as significant diagnostic seromarkers for AIH (atypical p-ANCA: AUC 0.754+/-0.026, odds ratio [OR] 3.4; SMA: 0.652+/-0.028, OR 4.1). Atypical p-ANCA also emerged as the only diagnostically relevant seromarker for PSC (AUC 0.690+/-0.04, OR 3.4). None of the tested antibodies yielded a significant diagnostic accuracy for patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis, HCV or healthy controls. Atypical p-ANCA along with SMA represent a seromarker with high diagnostic accuracy for AIH and should be explicitly considered in a revised version of the diagnostic score for AIH.

Quantitative contrast enhanced ultrasound of the liver for time intensity curves-Reliability and potential sources of errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ignee, Andre; Jedrejczyk, Maciej; Schuessler, Gudrun; Jakubowski, Wieslaw; Dietrich, Christoph F

2010-01-01

Time intensity curves for real-time contrast enhanced low MI ultrasound is a promising technique since it adds objective data to the more subjective conventional contrast enhanced technique. Current developments showed that the amount of uptake in modern targeted therapy strategies correlates with therapy response. Nevertheless no basic research has been done concerning the reliability and validity of the method. Videos sequences of 31 consecutive patients for at least 60s were recorded. Parameters analysed: area under the curve, maximum intensity, mean transit time, perfusion index, time to peak, rise time. The influence of depth, lateral shift as well as size and shape of the region of interest was analysed. The parameters time to peak and rise time showed a good stability in different depths. Overall there was a variation >50% for all other parameters. Mean transit time, time to peak and rise time were stable from 3 to 10cm depths, whereas all other parameters showed only satisfying results at 4-6cm. Time to peak and rise time were stable as well against lateral shifting whereas all other parameters had again variations over 50%. Size and shape of the region of interest did not influence the results. (1) It is important to compare regions of interest, e.g. in a tumour vs. representative parenchyma in the same depths. (2) Time intensity curves should not be analysed in a depth of less than 4cm. (3) The parameters area under the curve, perfusion index and maximum intensity should not be analysed in a depth more than 6cm. (4) Size and shape of a region of interest in liver parenchyma do not affect time intensity curves. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative contrast enhanced ultrasound of the liver for time intensity curves-Reliability and potential sources of errors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ignee, Andre [Department of Internal Medicine and Diagnostic Imaging, Caritas Hospital, Uhlandstr. 7, 97990 Bad Mergentheim (Germany)], E-mail: andre.ignee@gmx.de; Jedrejczyk, Maciej [Department of Diagnostic Imaging, 2nd Division of Medical Faculty, Medical University, Ul. Kondratowicza 8, 03-242 Warsaw (Poland)], E-mail: mjedrzejczyk@interia.pl; Schuessler, Gudrun [Department of Internal Medicine and Diagnostic Imaging, Caritas Hospital, Uhlandstr. 7, 97990 Bad Mergentheim (Germany)], E-mail: gudrunschuessler@gmx.de; Jakubowski, Wieslaw [Department of Diagnostic Imaging, 2nd Division of Medical Faculty, Medical University, Ul. Kondratowicza 8, 03-242 Warsaw (Poland)], E-mail: ewajbmd@go2.pl; Dietrich, Christoph F. [Department of Internal Medicine and Diagnostic Imaging, Caritas Hospital, Uhlandstr. 7, 97990 Bad Mergentheim (Germany)], E-mail: christoph.dietrich@ckbm.de

2010-01-15

Introduction: Time intensity curves for real-time contrast enhanced low MI ultrasound is a promising technique since it adds objective data to the more subjective conventional contrast enhanced technique. Current developments showed that the amount of uptake in modern targeted therapy strategies correlates with therapy response. Nevertheless no basic research has been done concerning the reliability and validity of the method. Patients and methods: Videos sequences of 31 consecutive patients for at least 60 s were recorded. Parameters analysed: area under the curve, maximum intensity, mean transit time, perfusion index, time to peak, rise time. The influence of depth, lateral shift as well as size and shape of the region of interest was analysed. Results: The parameters time to peak and rise time showed a good stability in different depths. Overall there was a variation >50% for all other parameters. Mean transit time, time to peak and rise time were stable from 3 to 10 cm depths, whereas all other parameters showed only satisfying results at 4-6 cm. Time to peak and rise time were stable as well against lateral shifting whereas all other parameters had again variations over 50%. Size and shape of the region of interest did not influence the results. Discussion: (1) It is important to compare regions of interest, e.g. in a tumour vs. representative parenchyma in the same depths. (2) Time intensity curves should not be analysed in a depth of less than 4 cm. (3) The parameters area under the curve, perfusion index and maximum intensity should not be analysed in a depth more than 6 cm. (4) Size and shape of a region of interest in liver parenchyma do not affect time intensity curves.

Quantitative contrast enhanced ultrasound of the liver for time intensity curves-Reliability and potential sources of errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignee, Andre; Jedrejczyk, Maciej; Schuessler, Gudrun; Jakubowski, Wieslaw; Dietrich, Christoph F.

2010-01-01

Introduction: Time intensity curves for real-time contrast enhanced low MI ultrasound is a promising technique since it adds objective data to the more subjective conventional contrast enhanced technique. Current developments showed that the amount of uptake in modern targeted therapy strategies correlates with therapy response. Nevertheless no basic research has been done concerning the reliability and validity of the method. Patients and methods: Videos sequences of 31 consecutive patients for at least 60 s were recorded. Parameters analysed: area under the curve, maximum intensity, mean transit time, perfusion index, time to peak, rise time. The influence of depth, lateral shift as well as size and shape of the region of interest was analysed. Results: The parameters time to peak and rise time showed a good stability in different depths. Overall there was a variation >50% for all other parameters. Mean transit time, time to peak and rise time were stable from 3 to 10 cm depths, whereas all other parameters showed only satisfying results at 4-6 cm. Time to peak and rise time were stable as well against lateral shifting whereas all other parameters had again variations over 50%. Size and shape of the region of interest did not influence the results. Discussion: (1) It is important to compare regions of interest, e.g. in a tumour vs. representative parenchyma in the same depths. (2) Time intensity curves should not be analysed in a depth of less than 4 cm. (3) The parameters area under the curve, perfusion index and maximum intensity should not be analysed in a depth more than 6 cm. (4) Size and shape of a region of interest in liver parenchyma do not affect time intensity curves.

The first Latin-American risk stratification system for cardiac surgery: can be used as a graphic pocket-card score.

Science.gov (United States)

Carosella, Victorio C; Navia, Jose L; Al-Ruzzeh, Sharif; Grancelli, Hugo; Rodriguez, Walter; Cardenas, Cesar; Bilbao, Jorge; Nojek, Carlos

2009-08-01

This study aims to develop the first Latin-American risk model that can be used as a simple, pocket-card graphic score at bedside. The risk model was developed on 2903 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at the Spanish Hospital of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between June 1994 and December 1999. Internal validation was performed on 708 patients between January 2000 and June 2001 at the same center. External validation was performed on 1087 patients between February 2000 and January 2007 at three other centers in Argentina. In the development dataset the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was 0.73 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was P=0.88. In the internal validation ROC curve was 0.77. In the external validation ROC curve was 0.81, but imperfect calibration was detected because the observed in-hospital mortality (3.96%) was significantly lower than the development dataset (8.20%) (Pgraphic pocket-card score allows an easy bedside application with acceptable statistic precision.

Colorectal Stenting in Malignant Large Bowel Obstruction: The Learning Curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Williams

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. Self-expanding metal stents (SEMSs are increasingly used for the palliation of metastatic colorectal cancer and as a bridge to surgery for obstructing tumours. This case series analyses the learning curve and changes in practice of colorectal stenting over a three year period. Methods. A study of 40 patients who underwent placement of SEMS for the management of colorectal cancer. Patients spanned the learning curve of a single surgeon endoscopist. Results. Technical success rates increased from 82% initially, using an average of 1.7 stents per procedure, to a 94% success rate where all patients were stented using a single stent. There has been a change in practice from elective palliative stenting toward emergency preoperative stenting. Conclusion. There is a steep learning curve for the use of SEMS in the management of malignant colorectal bowel obstruction. We suggest that at least 20 cases are required for an operator to be considered experienced.

Screening of depression in cardiology: A study on 617 cardiovascular patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Tesio, Valentina; Marra, Sebastiano; Molinaro, Stefania; Torta, Riccardo; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Castelli, Lorys

2017-10-15

Depression screening in the cardiovascular disease (CVD) care setting is under-performed, also because the issue of the optimal screening tools cut-off is still open. We analysed which HADS (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) total score cut-off value shows the best properties in two groups of 357 Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) and 260 Chronic Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) hospitalized patients. A Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve was plotted for both groups using the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) as the criterion. Accuracy, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were computed for different cut-off scores. The ROC curves confirmed the excellent/very good accuracy of the HADS in both groups, with an area under the curve of 0.911 for the ACS and 0.893 for the CAD patients. The cut-off of 14 showed the best compromise between high sensitivity and good specificity in both groups, with high negative predicted values (95.5% and 92.4%, respectively). Using a cut-off value of 14, the HADS could be considered a good screening tool to identify hospitalized CAD and ACS patients requiring a more accurate depression assessment, in order to promptly plan the most appropriate treatment strategies and prevent the negative effects of depression in CVD patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program.

Science.gov (United States)

Afouxenidis, D; Polymeris, G S; Tsirliganis, N C; Kitis, G

2012-05-01

This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the GLOw Curve ANalysis INtercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters.

Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afouxenidis, D.; Polymeris, G. S.; Tsirliganis, N. C.; Kitis, G.

2012-01-01

This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the Glow Curve Analysis Intercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters. (authors)

The GO Cygni system: photoelectric observations and light curves analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rovithis, P.; Rovithis-Livaniou, H.; Niarchos, P.G.

1990-01-01

Photoelectric observations, in B and V, of the system GO Cygni obtained during 1985 at the Kryonerion Astronomical Station of the National Observatory of Greece are given. The corresponding light curves (typical β Lyrae) are analysed using Frequency Domain techniques. New photoelectric and absolute elements for the system are given, and its period was found to continue its increasing

Buckling Capacity Curves for Steel Spherical Shells Loaded by the External Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Błażejewski, Paweł; Marcinowski, Jakub

2015-03-01

Assessment of buckling resistance of pressurised spherical cap is not an easy task. There exist two different approaches which allow to achieve this goal. The first approach involves performing advanced numerical analyses in which material and geometrical nonlinearities would be taken into account as well as considering the worst imperfections of the defined amplitude. This kind of analysis is customarily called GMNIA and is carried out by means of the computer software based on FEM. The other, comparatively easier approach, relies on the utilisation of earlier prepared procedures which enable determination of the critical resistance pRcr, the plastic resistance pRpl and buckling parameters a, b, h, l 0 needed to the definition of the standard buckling resistance curve. The determination of the buckling capacity curve for the particular class of spherical caps is the principal goal of this work. The method of determination of the critical pressure and the plastic resistance were described by the authors in [1] whereas the worst imperfection mode for the considered class of spherical shells was found in [2]. The determination of buckling parameters defining the buckling capacity curve for the whole class of shells is more complicated task. For this reason the authors focused their attention on spherical steel caps with the radius to thickness ratio of R/t = 500, the semi angle j = 30o and the boundary condition BC2 (the clamped supporting edge). Taking into account all imperfection forms considered in [2] and different amplitudes expressed by the multiple of the shell thickness, sets of buckling parameters defining the capacity curve were determined. These parameters were determined by the methods proposed by Rotter in [3] and [4] where the method of determination of the exponent h by means of additional parameter k was presented. As a result of the performed analyses the standard capacity curves for all considered imperfection modes and amplitudes 0.5t, 1.0t, 1.5t

Comparison of Numerical Analyses with a Static Load Test of a Continuous Flight Auger Pile

Science.gov (United States)

Hoľko, Michal; Stacho, Jakub

2014-12-01

The article deals with numerical analyses of a Continuous Flight Auger (CFA) pile. The analyses include a comparison of calculated and measured load-settlement curves as well as a comparison of the load distribution over a pile's length. The numerical analyses were executed using two types of software, i.e., Ansys and Plaxis, which are based on FEM calculations. Both types of software are different from each other in the way they create numerical models, model the interface between the pile and soil, and use constitutive material models. The analyses have been prepared in the form of a parametric study, where the method of modelling the interface and the material models of the soil are compared and analysed. Our analyses show that both types of software permit the modelling of pile foundations. The Plaxis software uses advanced material models as well as the modelling of the impact of groundwater or overconsolidation. The load-settlement curve calculated using Plaxis is equal to the results of a static load test with a more than 95 % degree of accuracy. In comparison, the load-settlement curve calculated using Ansys allows for the obtaining of only an approximate estimate, but the software allows for the common modelling of large structure systems together with a foundation system.

Statistical determination of significant curved I-girder bridge seismic response parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Junwon

2013-06-01

Curved steel bridges are commonly used at interchanges in transportation networks and more of these structures continue to be designed and built in the United States. Though the use of these bridges continues to increase in locations that experience high seismicity, the effects of curvature and other parameters on their seismic behaviors have been neglected in current risk assessment tools. These tools can evaluate the seismic vulnerability of a transportation network using fragility curves. One critical component of fragility curve development for curved steel bridges is the completion of sensitivity analyses that help identify influential parameters related to their seismic response. In this study, an accessible inventory of existing curved steel girder bridges located primarily in the Mid-Atlantic United States (MAUS) was used to establish statistical characteristics used as inputs for a seismic sensitivity study. Critical seismic response quantities were captured using 3D nonlinear finite element models. Influential parameters from these quantities were identified using statistical tools that incorporate experimental Plackett-Burman Design (PBD), which included Pareto optimal plots and prediction profiler techniques. The findings revealed that the potential variation in the influential parameters included number of spans, radius of curvature, maximum span length, girder spacing, and cross-frame spacing. These parameters showed varying levels of influence on the critical bridge response.

Predictive value of modeled AUC(AFP-hCG), a dynamic kinetic parameter characterizing serum tumor marker decline in patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumor.

Science.gov (United States)

You, Benoit; Fronton, Ludivine; Boyle, Helen; Droz, Jean-Pierre; Girard, Pascal; Tranchand, Brigitte; Ribba, Benjamin; Tod, Michel; Chabaud, Sylvie; Coquelin, Henri; Fléchon, Aude

2010-08-01

The early decline profile of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) in patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) treated with chemotherapy may be related to the risk of relapse. We assessed the predictive values of areas under the curve of hCG (AUC(hCG)) and AFP (AUC(AFP)) of modeled concentration-time equations on progression-free survival (PFS). Single-center retrospective analysis of hCG and AFP time-points from 65 patients with IGCCCG intermediate-poor risk NSGCT treated with 4 cycles of bleomycin-etoposide-cisplatin (BEP). To determine AUC(hCG) and AUC(AFP) for D0-D42, AUCs for D0-D7 were calculated using the trapezoid rule and AUCs for D7-D42 were calculated using the mathematic integrals of equations modeled with NONMEM. Combining AUC(AFP) and AUC(hCG) enabled us to define 2 predictive groups: namely, patients with favorable and unfavorable AUC(AFP-hCG). Survival analyses and ROC curves assessed the predictive values of AUC(AFP-hCG) groups regarding progression-free survival (PFS) and compared them with those of half-life (HL) and time-to-normalization (TTN). Mono-exponential models best fit the patterns of marker decreases. Patients with a favorable AUC(AFP-hCG) had a significantly better PFS (100% vs 71.5%, P = .014). ROC curves confirmed the encouraging predictive accuracy of AUC(AFP-hCG) against HL or TTN regarding progression risk (ROC AUCs = 79.6 vs 71.9 and 70.2 respectively). Because of the large number of patients with missing data, multivariate analysis could not be performed. AUC(AFP-hCG) is a dynamic parameter characterizing tumor marker decline in patients with NSGCT during BEP treatment. Its value as a promising predictive factor should be validated. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score among the general adult population: findings from the German Health Interview and Examination Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Paprott, Rebecca; Mühlenbruch, Kristin; Mensink, Gert B M; Thiele, Silke; Schulze, Matthias B; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Heidemann, Christin

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) among the general adult German population for prediction of incident type 2 diabetes and detection of prevalent undiagnosed diabetes. Methods The longitudinal sample for prediction of incident diagnosed type 2 diabetes included 3625 persons who participated both in the examination survey in 1997–1999 and the examination survey in 2008–2011. Incident diagnosed type 2 diabetes was defined as first-time physician diagnosis or antidiabetic medication during 5 years of follow-up excluding potential incident type 1 and gestational diabetes. The cross-sectional sample for detection of prevalent undiagnosed diabetes included 6048 participants without diagnosed diabetes of the examination survey in 2008–2011. Prevalent undiagnosed diabetes was defined as glycated haemoglobin ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). We assessed discrimination as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC (95% CI)) and calibration through calibration plots. Results In longitudinal analyses, 82 subjects with incident diagnosed type 2 diabetes were identified after 5 years of follow-up. For prediction of incident diagnosed diabetes, the GDRS yielded an ROC-AUC of 0.87 (0.83 to 0.90). Calibration plots indicated excellent prediction for low diabetes risk and overestimation for intermediate and high diabetes risk. When considering the entire follow-up period of 11.9 years (ROC-AUC: 0.84 (0.82 to 0.86)) and including incident undiagnosed diabetes (ROC-AUC: 0.81 (0.78 to 0.84)), discrimination decreased somewhat. A previously simplified paper version of the GDRS yielded a similar predictive ability (ROC-AUC: 0.86 (0.82 to 0.89)). In cross-sectional analyses, 128 subjects with undiagnosed diabetes were identified. For detection of prevalent undiagnosed diabetes, the ROC-AUC was 0.84 (0.81 to 0.86). Again, the simplified version yielded a similar result (ROC-AUC: 0.83 (0.80 to 0.86)). Conclusions The GDRS might be applied

Linking fluorescence induction curve and biomass in herbicide screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, Martin G; Teicher, Harald B; Streibig, Jens C

2003-12-01

A suite of dose-response bioassays with white mustard (Sinapis alba L) and sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L) in the greenhouse and with three herbicides was used to analyse how the fluorescence induction curves (Kautsky curves) were affected by the herbicides. Bentazone, a photosystem II (PSII) inhibitor, completely blocked the normal fluorescence decay after the P-step. In contrast, fluorescence decay was still obvious for flurochloridone, a PDS inhibitor, and glyphosate, an EPSP inhibitor, which indicated that PSII inhibition was incomplete. From the numerous parameters that can be derived from OJIP-steps of the Kautsky curve the relative changes at the J-step [Fvj = (Fm - Fj)/Fm] was selected to be a common response parameter for the herbicides and yielded consistent dose-response relationships. Four hours after treatment, the response Fvj on the doses of bentazone and flurochloridone could be measured. For glyphosate, the changes of the Kautsky curve could similarly be detected 4 h after treatment in sugar beet, but only after 24 hs in S alba. The best prediction of biomass in relation to Fvj was found for bentazone. The experiments were conducted between May and August 2002 and showed that the ambient temperature and solar radiation in the greenhouse could affect dose-response relationships. If the Kautsky curve parameters should be used to predict the outcome of herbicide screening experiments in the greenhouse, where ambient radiation and temperature can only partly be controlled, it is imperative that the chosen fluorescence parameters can be used to predict accurately the resulting biomass used in classical bioassays.

Task 4 Improvised Nuclear Device Response Curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alai, Maureen [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-05-31

LLNL performed fallout and nuclear blast modeling for the 60 cities using the NARAC modeling system and predominant weather patterns determined in a previous Task 4 effort. LLNL performed model simulations and analyses to identify and provide response curves (expressed as two-dimensional contours) for radioactive fallout deposition, transport, population, and blast overpressure as a function of yield, weather, location and time. These contours can then be further combined and correlated with infrastructure and population databases to estimate city specific effects on KPFs such as impacted infrastructure and casualty rates.

Approximation by planar elastic curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, David; Gravesen, Jens; Nørbjerg, Toke Bjerge

2016-01-01

We give an algorithm for approximating a given plane curve segment by a planar elastic curve. The method depends on an analytic representation of the space of elastic curve segments, together with a geometric method for obtaining a good initial guess for the approximating curve. A gradient......-driven optimization is then used to find the approximating elastic curve....

Bragg Curve Spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruhn, C.R.

1981-05-01

An alternative utilization is presented for the gaseous ionization chamber in the detection of energetic heavy ions, which is called Bragg Curve Spectroscopy (BCS). Conceptually, BCS involves using the maximum data available from the Bragg curve of the stopping heavy ion (HI) for purposes of identifying the particle and measuring its energy. A detector has been designed that measures the Bragg curve with high precision. From the Bragg curve the range from the length of the track, the total energy from the integral of the specific ionization over the track, the dE/dx from the specific ionization at the beginning of the track, and the Bragg peak from the maximum of the specific ionization of the HI are determined. This last signal measures the atomic number, Z, of the HI unambiguously

An ROC study detecting ability of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using digital radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Eun Chul; Im, Jung Gi; Han, Man Chung; Kim, Jong Hyo

1991-01-01

One potential advantage of the digital radiography system is its ability to enhance image quality by various types of processing. Digital unsharp masking is one of the simplest and most useful forms of enhancing processes. The efficacy of unsharp masking in radiological diagnosis has not been investigated thoroughly. To evaluate the effects of unsharp masking in film-digital chest images, 3 observers were shown 150 test radiographs. These test radiographs consisted of 50 unprocessed images (25 normals and 25 patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with honey combing) and their 100 processed images by using 450 and 15-sized masks respectively. An ROC analysis of these data suggests that unsharp masking is more effective in detecting idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis than unprocessed image (ρ < 0.05), and so it may improve diagnostic accuracy for interstitial fibrosis. In addition, the smaller mask size (15) is more effective than the larger one (mask size 45) (ρ < 0.05). By using this analytic approach, an optimal parameter in digital chest radiography may be investigated in many other forms of pulmonary disease such as pulmonary nodule or mediastinal mass

An ROC study detecting ability of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using digital radiography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Eun Chul; Im, Jung Gi; Han, Man Chung; Kim, Jong Hyo [College of Medicine, Ewha Womens University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1991-03-15

One potential advantage of the digital radiography system is its ability to enhance image quality by various types of processing. Digital unsharp masking is one of the simplest and most useful forms of enhancing processes. The efficacy of unsharp masking in radiological diagnosis has not been investigated thoroughly. To evaluate the effects of unsharp masking in film-digital chest images, 3 observers were shown 150 test radiographs. These test radiographs consisted of 50 unprocessed images (25 normals and 25 patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with honey combing) and their 100 processed images by using 450 and 15-sized masks respectively. An ROC analysis of these data suggests that unsharp masking is more effective in detecting idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis than unprocessed image ({rho} < 0.05), and so it may improve diagnostic accuracy for interstitial fibrosis. In addition, the smaller mask size (15) is more effective than the larger one (mask size 45) ({rho} < 0.05). By using this analytic approach, an optimal parameter in digital chest radiography may be investigated in many other forms of pulmonary disease such as pulmonary nodule or mediastinal mass.

Learning Curve? Which One?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Prochno

2004-07-01

Full Text Available Learning curves have been studied for a long time. These studies provided strong support to the hypothesis that, as organizations produce more of a product, unit costs of production decrease at a decreasing rate (see Argote, 1999 for a comprehensive review of learning curve studies. But the organizational mechanisms that lead to these results are still underexplored. We know some drivers of learning curves (ADLER; CLARK, 1991; LAPRE et al., 2000, but we still lack a more detailed view of the organizational processes behind those curves. Through an ethnographic study, I bring a comprehensive account of the first year of operations of a new automotive plant, describing what was taking place on in the assembly area during the most relevant shifts of the learning curve. The emphasis is then on how learning occurs in that setting. My analysis suggests that the overall learning curve is in fact the result of an integration process that puts together several individual ongoing learning curves in different areas throughout the organization. In the end, I propose a model to understand the evolution of these learning processes and their supporting organizational mechanisms.

Contractibility of curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janusz Charatonik

1991-11-01

Full Text Available Results concerning contractibility of curves (equivalently: of dendroids are collected and discussed in the paper. Interrelations tetween various conditions which are either sufficient or necessary for a curve to be contractible are studied.

Growing Up and Cleaning Up: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Redux.

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, Rachel S; Ruth, Matthias

2012-01-01

Borrowing from the Kuznets curve literature, researchers have coined the term "environmental Kuznets curve" or EKC to characterize the relationship between pollution levels and income: pollution levels will increase with income but some threshold of income will eventually be reached, beyond which pollution levels will decrease. The link between the original Kuznets curve, which posited a similar relationship between income and inequality, and its pollution-concerned offspring lies primarily with the shape of both curves (an upside-down U) and the central role played by income change. Although the EKC literature has burgeoned over the past several years, few concrete conclusions have been drawn, the main themes of the literature have remained constant, and no consensus has been reached regarding the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve. EKC research has used a variety of types of data and a range of geographical units to examine the effects of income levels on pollution. Changes in pollution levels might also be at least partly explained by countries' position in the demographic transition and their general population structure, however little research has included this important aspect in the analysis. In addition, few analyses confine themselves to an evaluation for one country of the long-term relationship between income and pollution. Using United States CO 2 emissions as well as demographic, employment, trade and energy price data, this paper seeks to highlight the potential impact of population and economic structure in explaining the relationship between income and pollution levels.

Association between promoter methylation of MLH1 and MSH2 and reactive oxygen species in oligozoospermic men-A pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunes, S; Agarwal, A; Henkel, R; Mahmutoglu, A M; Sharma, R; Esteves, S C; Aljowair, A; Emirzeoglu, D; Alkhani, A; Pelegrini, L; Joumah, A; Sabanegh, E

2018-04-01

MLH1 and MSH2 are important genes for DNA mismatch repair and crossing over during meiosis and are implicated in male infertility. Therefore, the methylation patterns of the DNA mismatch repair genes MLH1 and MSH2 in oligozoospermic males were investigated. Ten oligozoospermic patients and 29 normozoospermic donors were analysed. Methylation profiles of the MLH1 and MSH2 promotors were analysed. In addition, sperm motility and seminal reactive oxygen species (ROS) were recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to determine the accuracy of the DNA methylation status of MLH1 and MSH2 to distinguish between oligozoospermic and normozoospermic men. In oligozoospermic men, MLH1 was significantly (p = .0013) more methylated compared to normozoospermic men. Additionally, there was a significant positive association (r = .384; p = .0159) between seminal ROS levels and MLH1 methylation. Contrary, no association between MSH2 methylation and oligozoospermia was found. ROC curve analysis for methylation status of MLH1 was significant (p = .0275) with an area under the curve of 61.1%, a sensitivity of 22.2% and a specificity of 100.0%. This pilot study indicates oligozoospermic patients have more methylation of MLH1 than normozoospermic patients. Whether hypermethylation of the MLH1 promoter plays a role in repairing relevant mismatches of sperm DNA strands in idiopathic oligozoospermia warrants further investigation. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Atlas of stress-strain curves

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

The Atlas of Stress-Strain Curves, Second Edition is substantially bigger in page dimensions, number of pages, and total number of curves than the previous edition. It contains over 1,400 curves, almost three times as many as in the 1987 edition. The curves are normalized in appearance to aid making comparisons among materials. All diagrams include metric (SI) units, and many also include U.S. customary units. All curves are captioned in a consistent format with valuable information including (as available) standard designation, the primary source of the curve, mechanical properties (including hardening exponent and strength coefficient), condition of sample, strain rate, test temperature, and alloy composition. Curve types include monotonic and cyclic stress-strain, isochronous stress-strain, and tangent modulus. Curves are logically arranged and indexed for fast retrieval of information. The book also includes an introduction that provides background information on methods of stress-strain determination, on...

A Bayesian hierarchical model for demand curve analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Yen-Yi; Nhu Vo, Tien; Chu, Haitao; Luo, Xianghua; Le, Chap T

2018-07-01

Drug self-administration experiments are a frequently used approach to assessing the abuse liability and reinforcing property of a compound. It has been used to assess the abuse liabilities of various substances such as psychomotor stimulants and hallucinogens, food, nicotine, and alcohol. The demand curve generated from a self-administration study describes how demand of a drug or non-drug reinforcer varies as a function of price. With the approval of the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, demand curve analysis provides crucial evidence to inform the US Food and Drug Administration's policy on tobacco regulation, because it produces several important quantitative measurements to assess the reinforcing strength of nicotine. The conventional approach popularly used to analyze the demand curve data is individual-specific non-linear least square regression. The non-linear least square approach sets out to minimize the residual sum of squares for each subject in the dataset; however, this one-subject-at-a-time approach does not allow for the estimation of between- and within-subject variability in a unified model framework. In this paper, we review the existing approaches to analyze the demand curve data, non-linear least square regression, and the mixed effects regression and propose a new Bayesian hierarchical model. We conduct simulation analyses to compare the performance of these three approaches and illustrate the proposed approaches in a case study of nicotine self-administration in rats. We present simulation results and discuss the benefits of using the proposed approaches.

Recursive and non-linear logistic regression: moving on from the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II methodologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Poullis, Michael

2014-11-01

EuroSCORE II, despite improving on the original EuroSCORE system, has not solved all the calibration and predictability issues. Recursive, non-linear and mixed recursive and non-linear regression analysis were assessed with regard to sensitivity, specificity and predictability of the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II systems. The original logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and recursive, non-linear and mixed recursive and non-linear regression analyses of these risk models were assessed via receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic analysis with regard to the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality. Analysis was performed for isolated coronary artery bypass grafts (CABGs) (n = 2913), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 814), mitral valve surgery (n = 340), combined AVR and CABG (n = 517), aortic (n = 350), miscellaneous cases (n = 642), and combinations of the above cases (n = 5576). The original EuroSCORE had an ROC below 0.7 for isolated AVR and combined AVR and CABG. None of the methods described increased the ROC above 0.7. The EuroSCORE II risk model had an ROC below 0.7 for isolated AVR only. Recursive regression, non-linear regression, and mixed recursive and non-linear regression all increased the ROC above 0.7 for isolated AVR. The original EuroSCORE had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was above 0.05 for all patients and the subgroups analysed. All of the techniques markedly increased the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The EuroSCORE II risk model had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was significant for all patients (P linear regression failed to improve on the original Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The mixed recursive and non-linear regression using the EuroSCORE II risk model was the only model that produced an ROC of 0.7 or above for all patients and procedures and had a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic that was highly non-significant. The original EuroSCORE and the EuroSCORE II risk models do not have adequate ROC and Hosmer

Rocking at 81 and Rolling at 34: ROC Cut-Off Scores for the Negative Acts Questionnaire–Revised in Serbia

Science.gov (United States)

Petrović, Ivana B.; Vukelić, Milica; Čizmić, Svetlana

2017-01-01

Researchers are still searching for the ways to identify different categories of employees according to their exposure to negative acts and psychological experience of workplace bullying. We followed Notelaers and Einarsen’s application of the ROC analysis to determine the NAQ-R cut-off scores applying a “lower” and “higher” threshold. The main goal of this research was to develop and test different gold standards of personal and organizational relevance in determining the NAQ-R cut-off scores in a specific cultural and economic context of Serbia. Apart from combining self-labeling as a victim with self-perceived health, the objectives were to test the gold standards developed as a combination of self-labeling with life satisfaction, self-labeling with intention to leave and a complex gold standard based on self-labeling, self-perceived health, life satisfaction and intention to leave taken together. The ROC analysis on Serbian workforce data supports applying of different gold standards. For identifying employees in a preliminary stage of bullying, the most applicable was the gold standard based on self-labeling and intention to leave (score 34 and higher). The most accurate identification of victims could be based on the most complex gold standard (score 81 and higher). This research encourages further investigation of gold standards in different cultures. PMID:28119652

Finite Element Based Pelvic Injury Metric Creation and Validation in Lateral Impact for a Human Body Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Caitlin; Baker, Alexander; Davis, Matthew; Miller, Anna; Stitzel, Joel D

2018-02-20

Pelvic fractures are serious injuries resulting in high mortality and morbidity. The objective of this study is to develop and validate local pelvic anatomical, cross-section-based injury risk metrics for a finite element (FE) model of the human body. Cross-sectional instrumentation was implemented in the pelvic region of the Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC M50-O) 50th percentile detailed male FE model (v4.3). In total, 25 lateral impact FE simulations were performed using input data from cadaveric lateral impact tests performed by Bouquet et al. The experimental force-time data was scaled using five normalization techniques, which were evaluated using log rank, Wilcoxon rank sum, and correlation and analysis (CORA) testing. Survival analyses with Weibull distribution were performed on the experimental peak force (scaled and unscaled) and the simulation test data to generate injury risk curves (IRCs) for total pelvic injury. Additionally, IRCs were developed for regional injury using cross-sectional forces from the simulation results and injuries documented in the experimental autopsies. These regional IRCs were also evaluated using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Based on the results of the all the evaluation methods, the Equal Stress Equal Velocity (ESEV) and ESEV using effective mass (ESEV-EM) scaling techniques performed best. The simulation IRC shows slight under prediction of injury in comparison to these scaled experimental data curves. However, this difference was determined to not be statistically significant. Additionally, the ROC curve analysis showed moderate predictive power for all regional IRCs.

Recognition Memory zROC Slopes for Items with Correct versus Incorrect Source Decisions Discriminate the Dual Process and Unequal Variance Signal Detection Models

Science.gov (United States)

Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Hautus, Michael J.

2014-01-01

We tested the dual process and unequal variance signal detection models by jointly modeling recognition and source confidence ratings. The 2 approaches make unique predictions for the slope of the recognition memory zROC function for items with correct versus incorrect source decisions. The standard bivariate Gaussian version of the unequal…

Tornado-Shaped Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

2017-01-01

In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

Diagnostic accuracy and comparison of two assays for Borrelia-specific IgG and IgM antibodies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dessau, Ram

2013-01-01

characteristic (ROC) curves to optimize and standardize test interpretation, it was shown that testing with both IDEIA IgG and IgM was comparable to testing with Liaison IgG alone by comparing the area under the curve of the diagnostically relevant 25 % partial ROC curve (P = 0.1). When using the Liaison Osp......M combined) were 85 and 95 % and for the Liaison (VlsE IgG) method were 67 and 96 %, respectively. Methods for test evaluation, test interpretation and statistical testing are presented and discussed. In conclusion, Liaison VlsE IgG alone and IDEIA IgG/IgM combined showed a high and comparable discriminatory...

Probing Birth-Order Effects on Narrow Traits Using Specification-Curve Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohrer, Julia M; Egloff, Boris; Schmukle, Stefan C

2017-12-01

The idea that birth-order position has a lasting impact on personality has been discussed for the past 100 years. Recent large-scale studies have indicated that birth-order effects on the Big Five personality traits are negligible. In the current study, we examined a variety of more narrow personality traits in a large representative sample ( n = 6,500-10,500 in between-family analyses; n = 900-1,200 in within-family analyses). We used specification-curve analysis to assess evidence for birth-order effects across a range of models implementing defensible yet arbitrary analytical decisions (e.g., whether to control for age effects or to exclude participants on the basis of sibling spacing). Although specification-curve analysis clearly confirmed the previously reported birth-order effect on intellect, we found no meaningful effects on life satisfaction, locus of control, interpersonal trust, reciprocity, risk taking, patience, impulsivity, or political orientation. The lack of meaningful birth-order effects on self-reports of personality was not limited to broad traits but also held for more narrowly defined characteristics.

Clinical evaluation of mammography using a screen-film system. Pt. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurm, J.; Behrends, E.; Hofmann-Preiss, K.; Paterok, E.M.; Saebel, M.; Weishaar, J.

1983-01-01

In a clinical image quality test, the parameter image quality is analysed using the ROC method and on the basis of mammograms already classified by means of histological findings into ''benign'' and ''malignant'' cases. The results of this analysis confirmed those of the first two studies: The screen-film system, due to its almost equally good image quality, achieves a diagnostic accuracy as good as the Definix test film without screen. In addition, the following two parameters have been investigated in this clinical test: Different knowledge and experience of the evaluating experts in the field of mammography, and the learning progress in the course of expert training. The difference in knowledge and experience of the various evaluators becomes apparent in ROC analysis only with an evaluator having much more experience than the others in the field of mammography. The parameter learning progress - as shown by repeating the evaluation after three months of intensive training - does not come forth clear enough in the ROC curves. An analysis of the frequency distribution of the five decision thresholds reveals the approach of the individual evaluator. (orig.) [de

A versatile curve-fit model for linear to deeply concave rank abundance curves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

2005-01-01

A new, flexible curve-fit model for linear to concave rank abundance curves was conceptualized and validated using observational data. The model links the geometric-series model and log-series model and can also fit deeply concave rank abundance curves. The model is based ¿ in an unconventional way

Analysis of flux-flow curves in superconductors as a function of temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boboshko, N.

1978-01-01

A phenomenological method to analyse the experimental data of flux-flow resistivity in superconductors as a function of temperature is proposed and successfully applied to existing data for t = kappa >= 0.07. An empirical curve relating the flux-flow resistivity with the Ginsburg-Landau parameter kappa was obtained. (author)

Empirical Percentile Growth Curves with Z-scores Considering Seasonal Compensatory Growths for Japanese Thoroughbred Horses

Science.gov (United States)

ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

2013-01-01

Percentile growth curves are often used as a clinical indicator to evaluate variations of children’s growth status. In this study, we propose empirical percentile growth curves using Z-scores adapted for Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Individual horses and residual effects were included as random effects in the growth curve equation model and their variance components were estimated. Based on the Z-scores of the estimated variance components, empirical percentile growth curves were constructed. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of male and female Thoroughbreds, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements were used in the analyses. The developed empirical percentile growth curves using Z-scores are computationally feasible and useful for monitoring individual growth parameters of body weight and withers height of young Thoroughbred horses, especially during compensatory growth periods. PMID:24834004

Conformational and spectroscopic study of xanthogen ethyl formates, ROC(S)SC(O)OCH₂CH₃. Isolation of CH₃CH₂OC(O)SH.

Science.gov (United States)

Juncal, Luciana C; Cozzarín, Melina V; Romano, Rosana M

2015-03-15

ROC(S)SC(O)OCH2CH3, with R=CH3-, (CH3)2CH- and CH3(CH2)2-, were obtained through the reaction between potassium xanthate salts, ROC(S)SK, and ethyl chloroformate, ClC(O)OCH2CH3. The liquid compounds were identified and characterized by (1)H and (13)C NMR and mass spectrometry. The conformations adopted by the molecules were studied by DFT methods. 6 conformers were theoretically predicted for R=CH3- and (CH3)2CH-, while the conformational flexibility of the n-propyl substituent increases the total number of feasible rotamers to 21. For the three molecules, the conformers can be associated in 3 groups, being the most stable the AS forms - the C=S double bond anti (A) with respect to the C-S single bond and the S-C single bond syn (S) with respect to the C=O double bond - followed by AA and SS conformers. The vibrational spectra were interpreted in terms of the predicted conformational equilibrium, presenting the ν(C=O) spectral region signals corresponding to the three groups of conformers. A moderated pre-resonance Raman enhancement of the ν(C=S) vibrational mode of CH3(CH2)2OC(S)SC(O)OCH2CH3 was detected, when the excitation radiation approaches the energy of a n→π∗ electronic transition associated with the C=S chromophore. UV-visible spectra in different solvents were measured and interpreted in terms of TD-DFT calculations. The unknown molecule CH3CH2OC(O)SH was isolated by the UV-visible photolysis of CH3OC(S)SC(O)OCH2CH3 isolated in Ar matrix, and also obtained as a side-product of the reaction between potassium xanthate salts, ROC(S)SK, and ethyl chloroformate, ClC(O)OCH2CH3. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In-Vehicle Dynamic Curve-Speed Warnings at High-Risk Rural Curves

Science.gov (United States)

2018-03-01

Lane-departure crashes at horizontal curves represent a significant portion of fatal crashes on rural Minnesota roads. Because of this, solutions are needed to aid drivers in identifying upcoming curves and inform them of a safe speed at which they s...

Biological dosimetry in radiological protection: dose response curves elaboration for 60Co and 137Cs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Marcia Augusta da

1997-01-01

Ionizing radiation sources for pacific uses are being extensively utilized by modern society and the applications of these sources have raised the probability of the occurrence of accidents. The accidental exposition to radiation creates a necessity of the development of methods to evaluate dose quantity. This data could be obtained by the measurement of damage caused by radiation in the exposed person. The radiation dose can be estimated in exposed persons through physical methods (physical dosimetry) but the biological methods can't be dispensed, and among them, the cytogenetic one that makes use of chromosome aberrations (dicentric and centric ring) formed in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) exposed to ionizing radiation. This method correlates the frequency of radioinduced aberrations with the estimated absorbed dose, as in vitro as in vivo, which is called cytogenetic dosimetry. By the introduction of improved new techniques in culture, in the interpretation of aberrations in the different analysers of slides and by the adoption of different statistical programs to analyse the data, significant differences are observed among laboratories in dose-response curves (calibration curves). The estimation of absorbed dose utilizing other laboratory calibration curves may introduce some uncertainties, so the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) advises that each laboratory elaborates your own dose-response curve for cytogenetic dosimetry. The results were obtained from peripheral blood lymphocytes of the healthy and no-smoking donors exposed to 60 Co and 137 Cs radiation, with dose rate of 5 cGy.min. -1 . Six points of dose were determined 20,50,100,200,300,400 cGy and the control not irradiated. The analysed aberrations were of chromosomic type, dicentric and centric ring. The dose response curve for dicentrics were obtained by frequencies weighted in liner-quadratic mathematic model and the equation resulted were for 60 Co: Y = (3 46 +- 2.14)10 -4 cGy -1 + (3

The curve shortening problem

CERN Document Server

Chou, Kai-Seng

2001-01-01

Although research in curve shortening flow has been very active for nearly 20 years, the results of those efforts have remained scattered throughout the literature. For the first time, The Curve Shortening Problem collects and illuminates those results in a comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained account of the fundamental results.The authors present a complete treatment of the Gage-Hamilton theorem, a clear, detailed exposition of Grayson''s convexity theorem, a systematic discussion of invariant solutions, applications to the existence of simple closed geodesics on a surface, and a new, almost convexity theorem for the generalized curve shortening problem.Many questions regarding curve shortening remain outstanding. With its careful exposition and complete guide to the literature, The Curve Shortening Problem provides not only an outstanding starting point for graduate students and new investigations, but a superb reference that presents intriguing new results for those already active in the field.

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

2015-01-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

Seismic fragility analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostov, Marin

2000-01-01

In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

Predicting Pathological Features at Radical Prostatectomy in Patients with Prostate Cancer Eligible for Active Surveillance by Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ottavio de Cobelli

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic performance of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI and Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PIRADS score in predicting pathologic features in a cohort of patients eligible for active surveillance who underwent radical prostatectomy.A total of 223 patients who fulfilled the criteria for "Prostate Cancer Research International: Active Surveillance", were included. Mp-1.5 Tesla MRI examination staging with endorectal coil was performed at least 6-8 weeks after TRUS-guided biopsy. In all patients, the likelihood of the presence of cancer was assigned using PIRADS score between 1 and 5. Outcomes of interest were: Gleason score upgrading, extra capsular extension (ECE, unfavorable prognosis (occurrence of both upgrading and ECE, large tumor volume (≥ 0.5 ml, and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curves and Decision Curve Analyses (DCA were performed for models with and without inclusion of PIRADS score.Multivariate analysis demonstrated the association of PIRADS score with upgrading (P < 0.0001, ECE (P < 0.0001, unfavorable prognosis (P < 0.0001, and large tumor volume (P = 0.002. ROC curves and DCA showed that models including PIRADS score resulted in greater net benefit for almost all the outcomes of interest, with the only exception of SVI.mpMRI and PIRADS scoring are feasible tools in clinical setting and could be used as decision-support systems for a more accurate selection of patients eligible for AS.

Predicting glucose intolerance with normal fasting plasma glucose by the components of the metabolic syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pei, D.; Lin, J.; Kuo, S.; Wu, D.; Li, J.; Hsieh, C.; Wu, C.; Hung, Y.; Kuo, K.

2007-01-01

Surprisingly it is estimated that about half of type 2 diabetics remain undetected. The possible causes may be partly attributable to people with normal fasting plasma glucose (FPG) but abnormal postprandial hyperglycemia. We attempted to develop an effective predictive model by using the metabolic syndrome (MeS) components as parameters to identify such persons. All participants received a standard 75 gm oral glucose tolerance test which showed that 106 had normal glucose tolerance, 61 had impaired glucose tolerance and 6 had diabetes on isolated postchallenge hyperglycemia. We tested five models which included various MeS components. Model 0: FPG; Model 1 (Clinical history model): family history (FH), FPG, age and sex; Model 2 (MeS model): Model 1 plus triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure; Model 3: Model 2 plus fasting plasma insulin (FPI); Model 4: Model 3 plus homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the predictive discrimination of these models. The area under the ROC curve of the Model 0 was significantly larger than the area under the diagonal reference line. All the other 4 models had a larger area under the ROC curve than Model 0. Considering the simplicity and lower cost of Model 2, it would be the best model to use. Nevertheless, Model 3 had the largest area under the ROC curve. We demonstrated that Model 2 and 3 have a significantly better predictive discrimination to identify persons with normal FPG at high risk for glucose intolerance. (author)

3D CT versus axial helical CT versus conventional tomography in the classification of acetabular fractures: A ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kickuth, Ralph; Laufer, Ulf; Hartung, Guido; Gruening, Christian; Stueckle, Christoph; Kirchner, Johannes

2002-01-01

AIM: To assess the diagnostic power of three-dimensional computed tomography (3D CT), axial helical computed tomography (CT) and conventional tomography in the classification of acetabular fractures by interdisciplinary review. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) were assessed for two radiologists and two surgeons blinded to the presence of acetabular fractures in an animal model (a total of 62 porcine hips, 40 of them with artificial acetabular fractures). Main target parameter was the diagnostic accuracy in the classification of the artificial fractures following Judet et al. RESULTS: ROC analysis for radiologists showed A z values of 0·83 for 3D CT, 0·81 for axial helical CT, and 0·78 for conventional tomography; differences between the three techniques were not significant (P = 0·46-0·73). A z values for the surgeons were 0·87 for 3D CT, 0·68 for axial helical CT, and 0·60 for conventional tomography; 3D CT was significantly better than axial helical CT (P = 0·01) and conventional tomography (P = 0·001). The differences between axial helical CT and conventional tomography were not significant (P = 0·37). CONCLUSION: Acetabular fractures are best classified by 3D CT, followed by axial helical CT and conventional tomography when assessed by surgeons. 3D CT did not provide any additional significant benefit in the classification performed by radiologists. Kickuth, R. et al. (2002)

Bootstrap-based procedures for inference in nonparametric receiver-operating characteristic curve regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé; Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Tahoces, Pablo G

2018-03-01

Prior to using a diagnostic test in a routine clinical setting, the rigorous evaluation of its diagnostic accuracy is essential. The receiver-operating characteristic curve is the measure of accuracy most widely used for continuous diagnostic tests. However, the possible impact of extra information about the patient (or even the environment) on diagnostic accuracy also needs to be assessed. In this paper, we focus on an estimator for the covariate-specific receiver-operating characteristic curve based on direct regression modelling and nonparametric smoothing techniques. This approach defines the class of generalised additive models for the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The main aim of the paper is to offer new inferential procedures for testing the effect of covariates on the conditional receiver-operating characteristic curve within the above-mentioned class. Specifically, two different bootstrap-based tests are suggested to check (a) the possible effect of continuous covariates on the receiver-operating characteristic curve and (b) the presence of factor-by-curve interaction terms. The validity of the proposed bootstrap-based procedures is supported by simulations. To facilitate the application of these new procedures in practice, an R-package, known as npROCRegression, is provided and briefly described. Finally, data derived from a computer-aided diagnostic system for the automatic detection of tumour masses in breast cancer is analysed.

Computerized glow curve deconvolution of thermoluminescent emission from polyminerals of Jamaica Mexican flower

Science.gov (United States)

Favalli, A.; Furetta, C.; Zaragoza, E. Cruz; Reyes, A.

The aim of this work is to study the main thermoluminescence (TL) characteristics of the inorganic polyminerals extracted from dehydrated Jamaica flower or roselle (Hibiscus sabdariffa L.) belonging to Malvaceae family of Mexican origin. TL emission properties of the polymineral fraction in powder were studied using the initial rise (IR) method. The complex structure and kinetic parameters of the glow curves have been analysed accurately using the computerized glow curve deconvolution (CGCD) assuming an exponential distribution of trapping levels. The extension of the IR method to the case of a continuous and exponential distribution of traps is reported, such as the derivation of the TL glow curve deconvolution functions for continuous trap distribution. CGCD is performed both in the case of frequency factor, s, temperature independent, and in the case with the s function of temperature.

Diagnosis of small posterior fossa stroke on brain CT: effect of iterative reconstruction designed for brain CT on detection performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inoue, Taihei; Yoshida, Morikatsu; Yokoyama, Koichi; Nakaura, Takeshi; Hirata, Kenichiro; Kidoh, Masafumi; Oda, Seitaro; Utsunomiya, Daisuke; Yamashita, Yasuyuki; Harada, Kazunori

2017-01-01

In this study, we aimed to determine whether iterative model reconstruction designed for brain CT (IMR-neuro) would improve the accuracy of posterior fossa stroke diagnosis on brain CT. We enrolled 37 patients with ischaemic stroke in the posterior fossa and 37 patients without stroke (controls). Using axial images reconstructed using filtered back-projection (FBP) and IMR-neuro, we compared the CT numbers in infarcted areas, image noise in the pons, and contrast-to-noise ratios (CNRs) of infarcted and non-infarcted areas on scans subjected to IMR-neuro and FBP. To analyse the performance of hypo-attenuation detection, we used receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve techniques. The image noise was significantly lower (2.2 ± 0.5 vs. 5.1 ± 0.9 Hounsfield units, p < 0.01) and the difference in CNR between the infarcted and non-infarcted areas was significantly higher with IMR-neuro than with FBP (2.2 ± 1.7 vs. 4.0 ± 3.6, p < 0.01). Furthermore, the average area under the ROC curve was significantly higher with IMR-neuro (0.90 vs. 0.86 for FBP, p = 0.04). IMR-neuro yielded better image quality and improved hypo-attenuation detection in patients with ischaemic stroke. (orig.)

Diagnosis of small posterior fossa stroke on brain CT: effect of iterative reconstruction designed for brain CT on detection performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inoue, Taihei; Yoshida, Morikatsu; Yokoyama, Koichi [Amakusa Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Amakusa, Kumamoto (Japan); Nakaura, Takeshi; Hirata, Kenichiro; Kidoh, Masafumi; Oda, Seitaro; Utsunomiya, Daisuke; Yamashita, Yasuyuki [Kumamoto University, Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Graduate School of Life Sciences, Kumamoto (Japan); Harada, Kazunori [Amakusa Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Kumamoto (Japan)

2017-09-15

In this study, we aimed to determine whether iterative model reconstruction designed for brain CT (IMR-neuro) would improve the accuracy of posterior fossa stroke diagnosis on brain CT. We enrolled 37 patients with ischaemic stroke in the posterior fossa and 37 patients without stroke (controls). Using axial images reconstructed using filtered back-projection (FBP) and IMR-neuro, we compared the CT numbers in infarcted areas, image noise in the pons, and contrast-to-noise ratios (CNRs) of infarcted and non-infarcted areas on scans subjected to IMR-neuro and FBP. To analyse the performance of hypo-attenuation detection, we used receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve techniques. The image noise was significantly lower (2.2 ± 0.5 vs. 5.1 ± 0.9 Hounsfield units, p < 0.01) and the difference in CNR between the infarcted and non-infarcted areas was significantly higher with IMR-neuro than with FBP (2.2 ± 1.7 vs. 4.0 ± 3.6, p < 0.01). Furthermore, the average area under the ROC curve was significantly higher with IMR-neuro (0.90 vs. 0.86 for FBP, p = 0.04). IMR-neuro yielded better image quality and improved hypo-attenuation detection in patients with ischaemic stroke. (orig.)

Quantifying diagnostic performance: The log odds method as a practical option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haslam, Maxine; Manning, David

2006-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the most practical option available when statistically analysing small sample size studies. Method: The log odds ratio was applied to a study which took a retrospective approach and involved 50 patients who had undergone a ventilation and perfusion scan in the period between 01 January 2002 and 31 December 2002. Radiology reports and the patients' medical records were obtained, so that the clinical indications for the examination and the patients' medical history could be transferred onto the report form. Four radiographers who are routinely rotated into the Nuclear Medicine Department independently reported the same 50 ventilations and perfusion scans under identical conditions to the reporting radiologist. Results: Taking the radiologist reports as the gold standard the radiographers had an accuracy rate of 78%. The radiographers recorded an average sensitivity value of 94% and specificity value of 63%, with an A z reading of 0.71. Conclusion: As the sample size was too small for a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to be drawn, the log odds ratio provided a value, which represents an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which in turn ensured the results were statistically reliable. The log odds ratio enables researchers to carry out small-scale research without harbouring the data collected by unreliable analysis

Retrospective analysis of cytopathology using gray level co-occurrence matrix algorithm for thyroid malignant nodules in the ultrasound imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yeong Ju; Lee, Jin Soo [Dept. of Radiology, Inje University Haeundae Paik Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo [Dept. of Radiological Science, College of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

This study evaluated the applicability of computer-aided diagnosis by retrospective analysis of GLCM algorithm based on cytopathological diagnosis of normal and malignant nodules in thyroid ultrasound images. In the experiment, the recognition rate and ROC curve of thyroid malignant nodule were analyzed using 6 parameters of GLCM algorithm. Experimental results showed 97% energy, 93% contrast, 92% correlation, 92% homogeneity, 100% entropy and 100% variance. Statistical analysis showed that the area under the curve of each parameter was more than 0.947 (p = 0 .001) in t he ROC curve, which was s ignificant in the recognition of thyroid malignant nodules. In the GLCM, the cut-off value of each parameter can be used to predict the disease through analysis of quantitative computer-aided diagnosis.

Signature Curves Statistics of DNA Supercoils

OpenAIRE

Shakiban, Cheri; Lloyd, Peter

2004-01-01

In this paper we describe the Euclidean signature curves for two dimensional closed curves in the plane and their generalization to closed space curves. The focus will be on discrete numerical methods for approximating such curves. Further we will apply these numerical methods to plot the signature curves related to three-dimensional simulated DNA supercoils. Our primary focus will be on statistical analysis of the data generated for the signature curves of the supercoils. We will try to esta...

WASP-36b: A NEW TRANSITING PLANET AROUND A METAL-POOR G-DWARF, AND AN INVESTIGATION INTO ANALYSES BASED ON A SINGLE TRANSIT LIGHT CURVE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, A. M. S.; Anderson, D. R.; Hellier, C.; Maxted, P. F. L.; Smalley, B.; Southworth, J. [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG (United Kingdom); Collier Cameron, A. [SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, Fife, KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Gillon, M.; Jehin, E. [Institut d' Astrophysique et de Geophysique, Universite de Liege, Allee du 6 Aout, 17 Bat. B5C, Liege 1 (Belgium); Lendl, M.; Queloz, D.; Triaud, A. H. M. J.; Pepe, F.; Segransan, D.; Udry, S. [Observatoire de Geneve, Universite de Geneve, 51 Chemin des Maillettes, 1290 Sauverny (Switzerland); West, R. G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Barros, S. C. C.; Pollacco, D. [Astrophysics Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen' s University, University Road, Belfast, BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Street, R. A., E-mail: amss@astro.keele.ac.uk [Las Cumbres Observatory, 6740 Cortona Drive Suite 102, Goleta, CA 93117 (United States)

2012-04-15

We report the discovery, from WASP and CORALIE, of a transiting exoplanet in a 1.54 day orbit. The host star, WASP-36, is a magnitude V = 12.7, metal-poor G2 dwarf (T{sub eff} = 5959 {+-} 134 K), with [Fe/H] =-0.26 {+-} 0.10. We determine the planet to have mass and radius, respectively, 2.30 {+-} 0.07 and 1.28 {+-} 0.03 times that of Jupiter. We have eight partial or complete transit light curves, from four different observatories, which allow us to investigate the potential effects on the fitted system parameters of using only a single light curve. We find that the solutions obtained by analyzing each of these light curves independently are consistent with our global fit to all the data, despite the apparent presence of correlated noise in at least two of the light curves.

Method of construction spatial transition curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.V. Didanov

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The movement of rail transport (speed rolling stock, traffic safety, etc. is largely dependent on the quality of the track. In this case, a special role is the transition curve, which ensures smooth insertion of the transition from linear to circular section of road. The article deals with modeling of spatial transition curve based on the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion. This is a continuation of research conducted by the authors regarding the spatial modeling of curved contours. Methodology. Construction of the spatial transition curve is numerical methods for solving nonlinear integral equations, where the initial data are taken coordinate the starting and ending points of the curve of the future, and the inclination of the tangent and the deviation of the curve from the tangent plane at these points. System solutions for the numerical method are the partial derivatives of the equations of the unknown parameters of the law of change of torsion and length of the transition curve. Findings. The parametric equations of the spatial transition curve are calculated by finding the unknown coefficients of the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion, as well as the spatial length of the transition curve. Originality. A method for constructing the spatial transition curve is devised, and based on this software geometric modeling spatial transition curves of railway track with specified deviations of the curve from the tangent plane. Practical value. The resulting curve can be applied in any sector of the economy, where it is necessary to ensure a smooth transition from linear to circular section of the curved space bypass. An example is the transition curve in the construction of the railway line, road, pipe, profile, flat section of the working blades of the turbine and compressor, the ship, plane, car, etc.

Seismic fragility curves of bridge piers accounting for ground motions in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Duy-Duan; Lee, Tae-Hyung

2018-04-01

Korea is located in a slight-to-moderate seismic zone. Nevertheless, several studies pointed that the peak earthquake magnitude in the region can be reached to approximately 6.5. Accordingly, a seismic vulnerability evaluation of the existing structures accounting for ground motions in Korea is momentous. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for bridge piers of a steel box girder bridge equipped with and without base isolators based on a set of ground motions recorded in Korea. A finite element simulation platform, OpenSees, is utilized to perform nonlinear time history analyses of the bridges. A series of damage states is defined based on a damage index which is expressed in terms of the column displacement ductility ratio. The fragility curves based on Korean motions were thereafter compared with the fragility curves generated using worldwide earthquakes to assess the effect of the two ground motion groups on the seismic fragility curves of the bridge piers. The results reveal that both non- and base-isolated bridge piers are less vulnerable during the Korean ground motions than that under worldwide earthquakes.

Effect of reverse cyclic loading on the fracture resistance curve of nuclear piping material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weon, Jong Il; Seok, Chang Sung

1999-01-01

Fracture resistance (J-R) curves, which are used for the elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analyses, are known to be dependent on the cyclic loading history. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of reverse cyclic loading on J-R curves in CT specimens. The effect of two parameters was observed on the J-R curves during the reverse cyclic loading. One was the minimum-to-maximum load ratio (R) and the other was the incremental plastic displacement (δ cycle /δ i ), which is related to the amount of crack growth that occurs in a cycle. Fracture resistance test on CT specimens with varying load ratio and incremental plastic displacement were performed. For the SA 516 Gr. 70 steel, the results showed that the J-R curves were decreased with decreasing the load ratio and the incremental plastic displacement. When the load ratio was set to -1, the results of the J-R curves and the J i value were about 40-50 percent of those for the monotonic loading condition. Also on condition that the incremental plastic displacement reached 1/40, the J-R curves and the J i value were about 50-60 percent of those for the incremental plastic displacement of 1/10

Photoelectic BV Light Curves of Algol and the Interpretations of the Light Curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho-Il Kim

1985-06-01

Full Text Available Standardized B and V photoelectric light curves of Algol are made with the observations obtained during 1982-84 with the 40-cm and the 61-cm reflectors of Yonsei University Observatory. These light curves show asymmetry between ascending and descending shoulders. The ascending shoulder is 0.02 mag brighter than descending shoulder in V light curve and 0.03 mag in B light curve. These asymmetric light curves are interpreted as the result of inhomogeneous energy distribution on the surface of one star of the eclipsing pair rather than the result of gaseous stream flowing from KOIV to B8V star. The 180-year periodicity, so called great inequality, are most likely the result proposed by Kim et al. (1983 that the abrupt and discrete mass losses of cooler component may be the cause of this orbital change. The amount of mass loss deduced from these discrete period changes turned out to be of the order of 10^(-6 - 10^(-5 Msolar.

A Journey Between Two Curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey A. Cherkis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available A typical solution of an integrable system is described in terms of a holomorphic curve and a line bundle over it. The curve provides the action variables while the time evolution is a linear flow on the curve's Jacobian. Even though the system of Nahm equations is closely related to the Hitchin system, the curves appearing in these two cases have very different nature. The former can be described in terms of some classical scattering problem while the latter provides a solution to some Seiberg-Witten gauge theory. This note identifies the setup in which one can formulate the question of relating the two curves.

The Evaluation of Screening and Early Detection Strategies for Type 2 Diabetes and Impaired Glucose Tolerance (DETECT-2) update of the Finnish diabetes risk score for prediction of incident type 2 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alssema, M; Vistisen, D; Heymans, M W

2011-01-01

the ROC curve to 0.766 (95% CI 0.750-0.783). Additional items such as male sex, smoking and family history of diabetes (parent, sibling or both) improved the area under the ROC curve and net reclassification. Bootstrapping showed good internal validity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The predictive value...... of the original Finnish risk questionnaire could be improved by adding information on sex, smoking and family history of diabetes. The DETECT-2 update of the Finnish diabetes risk questionnaire is an adequate and robust predictor for future screen-detected and clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Europid...

Bond yield curve construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kožul Nataša

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

Quantitative contrast-enhanced ultrasound evaluation of pathological complete response in patients with locally advanced breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Cai-Feng; Liu, Xue-Song; Wang, Lin; Zhang, Jie; Lu, Jin-Song; Li, Feng-Hua

2018-06-01

To clarify whether the quantitative parameters of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) can be used to predict pathological complete response (pCR) in patients with locally advanced breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Fifty-one patients with histologically proved locally advanced breast cancer scheduled for NAC were enrolled. The quantitative data for CEUS and the tumor diameter were collected at baseline and before surgery, and compared with the pathological response. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine quantitative parameters at CEUS and the tumor diameter to predict the pCR, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used as a summary statistic. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that PEAK (the maximum intensity of the time-intensity curve during bolus transit), PEAK%, TTP% (time to peak), and diameter% were significant independent predictors of pCR, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.932(Az 1 ), and the sensitivity and specificity to predict pCR were 93.7% and 80.0%. The area under the ROC curve for the quantitative parameters was 0.927(Az 2 ), and the sensitivity and specificity to predict pCR were 81.2% and 94.3%. For diameter%, the area under the ROC curve was 0.786 (Az 3 ), and the sensitivity and specificity to predict pCR were 93.8% and 54.3%. The values of Az 1 and Az 2 were significantly higher than that of Az 3 (P = 0.027 and P = 0.034, respectively). However, there was no significant difference between the values of Az 1 and Az 2 (P = 0.825). Quantitative analysis of tumor blood perfusion with CEUS is superior to diameter% to predict pCR, and can be used as a functional technique to evaluate tumor response to NAC. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Curve Digitizer – A software for multiple curves digitizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florentin ŞPERLEA

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The Curve Digitizer is software that extracts data from an image file representing a graphicand returns them as pairs of numbers which can then be used for further analysis and applications.Numbers can be read on a computer screen stored in files or copied on paper. The final result is adata set that can be used with other tools such as MSEXCEL. Curve Digitizer provides a useful toolfor any researcher or engineer interested in quantifying the data displayed graphically. The image filecan be obtained by scanning a document

Diagnostic efficacy for coronary in-stent patency with parameters defined on Hounsfield CT value-spatial profile curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, Tadashi; Suzuki, Jun-ichi; Shimamoto, Ryoichi; Tsuji, Taeko; Ohmoto-Sekine, Yuki; Morita, Toshihiro; Yamashita, Hiroshi; Honye, Junko; Nagai, Ryozo; Komatsu, Shuhei; Akahane, Masaaki; Ohtomo, Kuni

2008-01-01

Purpose: Hounsfield CT values across coronary CT angiograms constitute CT value-spatial profile curves. These CT profile curves are independent of window settings, and therefore, parameters derived from the curves can be used for objective anatomic analyses. Applicability of parameters derived from the curves to quantification of coronary in-stent patency has not yet been evaluated. Methods: Twenty-five CT value-spatial profile curves were delineated from 10 consecutive coronary stents to test correlation between the curve derived parameter (i.e., the minimum extreme value normalized by dividing by the maximum value of the curves obtained at neighboring outside of stents) and three intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) parameters. Results: Correlation coefficients between normalized minimum extreme value of CT value-spatial profile curves and three IVUS parameters (such as patent cross-sectional in-stent area, the percentage of patent cross-sectional in-stent area, and coronary artery intra-stent diameter) were 0.65 (p < 0.01), 0.44 (p < 0.05) and 0.51 (p < 0.05), respectively. Conclusions: CT parameters defined on Hounsfield CT value-spatial profile curves correlated significantly with IVUS parameters for quantitative coronary in-stent patency. A new approach with CT coronary angiography is therefore indicated for the noninvasive assessment of in-stent re-stenosis

Robotic partial nephrectomy - Evaluation of the impact of case mix on the procedural learning curve.

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, A; Ahmed, K; Challacombe, B

2016-05-01

Although Robotic partial nephrectomy (RPN) is an emerging technique for the management of small renal masses, this approach is technically demanding. To date, there is limited data on the nature and progression of the learning curve in RPN. To analyse the impact of case mix on the RPN LC and to model the learning curve. The records of the first 100 RPN performed, were analysed at our institution that were carried out by a single surgeon (B.C) (June 2010-December 2013). Cases were split based on their Preoperative Aspects and Dimensions Used for an Anatomical (PADUA) score into the following groups: 6-7, 8-9 and >10. Using a split group (20 patients in each group) and incremental analysis, the mean, the curve of best fit and R(2) values were calculated for each group. Of 100 patients (F:28, M:72), the mean age was 56.4 ± 11.9 years. The number of patients in each PADUA score groups: 6-7, 8-9 and >10 were 61, 32 and 7 respectively. An increase in incidence of more complex cases throughout the cohort was evident within the 8-9 group (2010: 1 case, 2013: 16 cases). The learning process did not significantly affect the proxies used to assess surgical proficiency in this study (operative time and warm ischaemia time). Case difficulty is an important parameter that should be considered when evaluating procedural learning curves. There is not one well fitting model that can be used to model the learning curve. With increasing experience, clinicians tend to operate on more difficult cases. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fisher information metrics for binary classifier evaluation and training

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

Different evaluation metrics for binary classifiers are appropriate to different scientific domains and even to different problems within the same domain. This presentation focuses on the optimisation of event selection to minimise statistical errors in HEP parameter estimation, a problem that is best analysed in terms of the maximisation of Fisher information about the measured parameters. After describing a general formalism to derive evaluation metrics based on Fisher information, three more specific metrics are introduced for the measurements of signal cross sections in counting experiments (FIP1) or distribution fits (FIP2) and for the measurements of other parameters from distribution fits (FIP3). The FIP2 metric is particularly interesting because it can be derived from any ROC curve, provided that prevalence is also known. In addition to its relation to measurement errors when used as an evaluation criterion (which makes it more interesting that the ROC AUC), a further advantage of the FIP2 metric is ...

Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

2000-01-01

A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

A catalog of special plane curves

CERN Document Server

Lawrence, J Dennis

2014-01-01

Among the largest, finest collections available-illustrated not only once for each curve, but also for various values of any parameters present. Covers general properties of curves and types of derived curves. Curves illustrated by a CalComp digital incremental plotter. 12 illustrations.

Analysing data from observer studies in medical imaging research: An introductory guide to free-response techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, J.D.; Manning, D.J.; Hogg, P.

2014-01-01

Observer performance methods maintain their place in radiology research, particularly in the assessment of the diagnostic accuracy of new and existing techniques, despite not being fully embraced by the wider audience in medical imaging. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) paradigm has been widely used in research and the latest location sensitive methods allow an analysis that is closer to the clinical scenario. This paper discusses the underpinning theories behind observer performance assessment, exploring the potential sources of error and the development of the ROC method. The paper progresses by explaining the clinical relevance and statistical suitability of the free-response ROC (FROC) paradigm, and the methodological considerations for those wishing to perform an observer performance study

Intersection numbers of spectral curves

CERN Document Server

Eynard, B.

2011-01-01

We compute the symplectic invariants of an arbitrary spectral curve with only 1 branchpoint in terms of integrals of characteristic classes in the moduli space of curves. Our formula associates to any spectral curve, a characteristic class, which is determined by the laplace transform of the spectral curve. This is a hint to the key role of Laplace transform in mirror symmetry. When the spectral curve is y=\\sqrt{x}, the formula gives Kontsevich--Witten intersection numbers, when the spectral curve is chosen to be the Lambert function \\exp{x}=y\\exp{-y}, the formula gives the ELSV formula for Hurwitz numbers, and when one chooses the mirror of C^3 with framing f, i.e. \\exp{-x}=\\exp{-yf}(1-\\exp{-y}), the formula gives the Marino-Vafa formula, i.e. the generating function of Gromov-Witten invariants of C^3. In some sense this formula generalizes ELSV, Marino-Vafa formula, and Mumford formula.

Elliptic curves for applications (Tutorial)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lange, T.; Bernstein, D.J.; Chatterjee, S.

2011-01-01

More than 25 years ago, elliptic curves over finite fields were suggested as a group in which the Discrete Logarithm Problem (DLP) can be hard. Since then many researchers have scrutinized the security of the DLP on elliptic curves with the result that for suitably chosen curves only exponential

Differential geometry and topology of curves

CERN Document Server

Animov, Yu

2001-01-01

Differential geometry is an actively developing area of modern mathematics. This volume presents a classical approach to the general topics of the geometry of curves, including the theory of curves in n-dimensional Euclidean space. The author investigates problems for special classes of curves and gives the working method used to obtain the conditions for closed polygonal curves. The proof of the Bakel-Werner theorem in conditions of boundedness for curves with periodic curvature and torsion is also presented. This volume also highlights the contributions made by great geometers. past and present, to differential geometry and the topology of curves.

Models of genus one curves

OpenAIRE

Sadek, Mohammad

2010-01-01

In this thesis we give insight into the minimisation problem of genus one curves defined by equations other than Weierstrass equations. We are interested in genus one curves given as double covers of P1, plane cubics, or complete intersections of two quadrics in P3. By minimising such a curve we mean making the invariants associated to its defining equations as small as possible using a suitable change of coordinates. We study the non-uniqueness of minimisations of the genus one curves des...

The crime kuznets curve

OpenAIRE

Buonanno, Paolo; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Vargas, Juan Fernando

2014-01-01

We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the...

Evaluation of basal sex hormone levels for activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Yu; Li, Juan; Yu, Yongguo; Yang, Peirong; Li, Huaiyuan; Shen, Yongnian; Huang, Xiaodong; Liu, Shijian

2018-03-28

This study aimed to identify the predictive value of basal sex hormone levels for activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in girls. Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulation tests were performed and evaluated in a total of 1750 girls with development of secondary sex characteristics. Correlation analyses were conducted between basal sex hormones and peak luteinizing hormone (LH) levels ≥5 IU/L during the GnRH stimulation test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for basal levels of LH, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), LH/FSH, and estradiol (E2) before the GnRH stimulation test were plotted. The area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were measured for each curve. The maximum AUC value was observed for basal LH levels (0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.79), followed by basal FSH levels (0.73, 95% CI: 0.70-0.75), the basal LH/FSH ratio (0.68, 95% CI: 0.65-0.71), and basal E2 levels (0.61, 95% CI: 0.59-0.64). The appropriate cutoff value of basal LH levels associated with a positive response of the GnRH stimulation test was 0.35 IU/L, with a sensitivity of 63.96% and specificity of 76.3% from the ROC curves when Youden's index showed the maximum value. When 100% of patients had peak LH levels ≥5 IU/L, basal LH values were >2.72 IU/L, but the specificity was only 5.45%. Increased basal LH levels are a significant predictor of a positive response during the GnRH stimulation test for assessing activation of the HPG axis in most girls with early pubertal signs.

The cyclophosphamide equivalent dose as an approach for quantifying alkylating agent exposure: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Daniel M; Nolan, Vikki G; Goodman, Pamela J; Whitton, John A; Srivastava, DeoKumar; Leisenring, Wendy M; Neglia, Joseph P; Sklar, Charles A; Kaste, Sue C; Hudson, Melissa M; Diller, Lisa R; Stovall, Marilyn; Donaldson, Sarah S; Robison, Leslie L

2014-01-01

Estimation of the risk of adverse long-term outcomes such as second malignant neoplasms and infertility often requires reproducible quantification of exposures. The method for quantification should be easily utilized and valid across different study populations. The widely used Alkylating Agent Dose (AAD) score is derived from the drug dose distribution of the study population and thus cannot be used for comparisons across populations as each will have a unique distribution of drug doses. We compared the performance of the Cyclophosphamide Equivalent Dose (CED), a unit for quantifying alkylating agent exposure independent of study population, to the AAD. Comparisons included associations from three Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) outcome analyses, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and goodness of fit based on the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The CED and AAD performed essentially identically in analyses of risk for pregnancy among the partners of male CCSS participants, risk for adverse dental outcomes among all CCSS participants and risk for premature menopause among female CCSS participants, based on similar associations, lack of statistically significant differences between the areas under the ROC curves and similar model fit values for the AIC between models including the two measures of exposure. The CED is easily calculated, facilitating its use for patient counseling. It is independent of the drug dose distribution of a particular patient population, a characteristic that will allow direct comparisons of outcomes among epidemiological cohorts. We recommend the use of the CED in future research assessing cumulative alkylating agent exposure. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

SLAP tears: diagnosis using 3-T shoulder MR arthrography with the 3D isotropic turbo spin-echo space sequence versus conventional 2D sequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Joon-Yong; Jee, Won-Hee; Park, Michael Yong [The Catholic University of Korea, Department of Radiology, Seoul St. Mary' s Hospital, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So-Yeon [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yang-Soo [The Catholic University of Korea, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Seoul St. Mary' s Hospital, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2013-02-15

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy and reliability of shoulder magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography with three-dimensional (3D) isotropic intermediate-weighted turbo spin-echo (TSE) sampling perfection with application-optimised contrasts using different flip angle evolution (SPACE) in the diagnosis of superior labrum anterior-to-posterior (SLAP) lesions compared with two-dimensional (2D) TSE at 3.0 T. MR arthrograms, including 2D TSE and 3D TSE-SPACE, in 87 patients who underwent arthroscopy were retrospectively analysed by two reviewers for the presence and type of SLAP lesions. Sensitivity and specificity were compared using McNemar's test, and inter-observer agreement was calculated using Cohen's kappa. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed. The mean sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 90%, 85% and 86% for 2D TSE, and 81%, 86% and 85% for 3D TSE-SPACE respectively, with no statistically significant differences. Inter-observer agreements were substantial in 2D TSE ({kappa} = 0.76) and 3D TSE-SPACE ({kappa} = 0.68). The areas under the ROC curves were 0.92 for 2D TSE and 0.90 for 3D TSE-SPACE, which were not significantly different. MR arthrography with 3D TSE-SPACE showed comparable accuracy and substantial inter-observer agreement for the diagnosis of SLAP lesions circle MR arthrography is regarded as the definitive method of shoulder imaging circle Different MR sequences are evolving for SLAP lesions circle 3D TSE-SPACE demonstrated comparable overall accuracy to 2D TSE for SLAP lesions. (orig.)

Metagenome-based diversity analyses suggest a strong locality signal for bacterial communities associated with oyster aquaculture farms in Ofunato Bay

KAUST Repository

Kobiyama, Atsushi

2018-04-30

Ofunato Bay, in Japan, is the home of buoy-and-rope-type oyster aquaculture activities. Since the oysters filter suspended materials and excrete organic matter into the seawater, bacterial communities residing in its vicinity may show dynamic changes depending on the oyster culture activities. We employed a shotgun metagenomic technique to study bacterial communities near oyster aquaculture facilities at the center of the bay (KSt. 2) and compared the results with those of two other localities far from the station, one to the northeast (innermost bay, KSt. 1) and the other to the southwest (bay entrance, KSt. 3). Seawater samples were collected every month from January to December 2015 from the surface (1 m) and deeper (8 or 10 m) layers of the three locations, and the sequentially filtered fraction on 0.2-μm membranes was sequenced on an Illumina MiSeq system. The acquired reads were uploaded to MG-RAST for KEGG functional abundance analysis, while taxonomic analyses at the phylum and genus levels were performed using MEGAN after parsing the BLAST output. Discrimination analyses were then performed using the ROC-AUC value of the cross validation, targeting the depth (shallow or deep), locality [(KSt. 1 + KSt. 2) vs. KSt 3; (KSt. 1 + KSt. 3) vs. KSt. 2 or the (KSt. 2 + KSt. 3) vs. KSt. 1] and seasonality (12 months). The matrix discrimination analysis on the adjacent 2 continuous seasons by ROC-AUC, which was based on the datasets that originated from different depths, localities and months, showed the strongest discrimination signal on the taxonomy matrix at the phylum level for the datasets from July to August compared with those from September to June, while the KEGG matrix showed the strongest signal for the datasets from March to June compared with those from July to February. Then, the locality combination was subjected to the same ROC-AUC discrimination analysis, resulting in significant differences between KSt. 2 and KSt. 1 + KSt. 3

Metagenome-based diversity analyses suggest a strong locality signal for bacterial communities associated with oyster aquaculture farms in Ofunato Bay

KAUST Repository

Kobiyama, Atsushi; Ikeo, Kazuho; Reza, Md. Shaheed; Rashid, Jonaira; Yamada, Yuichiro; Ikeda, Yuri; Ikeda, Daisuke; Mizusawa, Nanami; Sato, Shigeru; Ogata, Takehiko; Jimbo, Mitsuru; Kudo, Toshiaki; Kaga, Shinnosuke; Watanabe, Shiho; Naiki, Kimiaki; Kaga, Yoshimasa; Mineta, Katsuhiko; Bajic, Vladimir B.; Gojobori, Takashi; Watabe, Shugo

2018-01-01

Ofunato Bay, in Japan, is the home of buoy-and-rope-type oyster aquaculture activities. Since the oysters filter suspended materials and excrete organic matter into the seawater, bacterial communities residing in its vicinity may show dynamic changes depending on the oyster culture activities. We employed a shotgun metagenomic technique to study bacterial communities near oyster aquaculture facilities at the center of the bay (KSt. 2) and compared the results with those of two other localities far from the station, one to the northeast (innermost bay, KSt. 1) and the other to the southwest (bay entrance, KSt. 3). Seawater samples were collected every month from January to December 2015 from the surface (1 m) and deeper (8 or 10 m) layers of the three locations, and the sequentially filtered fraction on 0.2-μm membranes was sequenced on an Illumina MiSeq system. The acquired reads were uploaded to MG-RAST for KEGG functional abundance analysis, while taxonomic analyses at the phylum and genus levels were performed using MEGAN after parsing the BLAST output. Discrimination analyses were then performed using the ROC-AUC value of the cross validation, targeting the depth (shallow or deep), locality [(KSt. 1 + KSt. 2) vs. KSt 3; (KSt. 1 + KSt. 3) vs. KSt. 2 or the (KSt. 2 + KSt. 3) vs. KSt. 1] and seasonality (12 months). The matrix discrimination analysis on the adjacent 2 continuous seasons by ROC-AUC, which was based on the datasets that originated from different depths, localities and months, showed the strongest discrimination signal on the taxonomy matrix at the phylum level for the datasets from July to August compared with those from September to June, while the KEGG matrix showed the strongest signal for the datasets from March to June compared with those from July to February. Then, the locality combination was subjected to the same ROC-AUC discrimination analysis, resulting in significant differences between KSt. 2 and KSt. 1 + KSt. 3

ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sutawanir Darwis

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

NEW CONCEPTS AND TEST METHODS OF CURVE PROFILE AREA DENSITY IN SURFACE: ESTIMATION OF AREAL DENSITY ON CURVED SPATIAL SURFACE

OpenAIRE

Hong Shen

2011-01-01

The concepts of curve profile, curve intercept, curve intercept density, curve profile area density, intersection density in containing intersection (or intersection density relied on intersection reference), curve profile intersection density in surface (or curve intercept intersection density relied on intersection of containing curve), and curve profile area density in surface (AS) were defined. AS expressed the amount of curve profile area of Y phase in the unit containing surface area, S...

SPIDERMAN: Fast code to simulate secondary transits and phase curves

Science.gov (United States)

Louden, Tom; Kreidberg, Laura

2017-11-01

SPIDERMAN calculates exoplanet phase curves and secondary eclipses with arbitrary surface brightness distributions in two dimensions. The code uses a geometrical algorithm to solve exactly the area of sections of the disc of the planet that are occulted by the star. Approximately 1000 models can be generated per second in typical use, which makes making Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses practicable. The code is modular and allows comparison of the effect of multiple different brightness distributions for a dataset.

M-curves and symmetric products

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Indranil Biswas

2017-08-03

Aug 3, 2017 ... is bounded above by g + 1, where g is the genus of X [11]. Curves which have exactly the maximum number (i.e., genus +1) of components of the real part are called M-curves. Classifying real algebraic curves up to homeomorphism is straightforward, however, classifying even planar non-singular real ...

ROC [Receiver Operating Characteristics] study of maximum likelihood estimator human brain image reconstructions in PET [Positron Emission Tomography] clinical practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Llacer, J.; Veklerov, E.; Nolan, D.; Grafton, S.T.; Mazziotta, J.C.; Hawkins, R.A.; Hoh, C.K.; Hoffman, E.J.

1990-10-01

This paper will report on the progress to date in carrying out Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) studies comparing Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and Filtered Backprojection (FBP) reconstructions of normal and abnormal human brain PET data in a clinical setting. A previous statistical study of reconstructions of the Hoffman brain phantom with real data indicated that the pixel-to-pixel standard deviation in feasible MLE images is approximately proportional to the square root of the number of counts in a region, as opposed to a standard deviation which is high and largely independent of the number of counts in FBP. A preliminary ROC study carried out with 10 non-medical observers performing a relatively simple detectability task indicates that, for the majority of observers, lower standard deviation translates itself into a statistically significant detectability advantage in MLE reconstructions. The initial results of ongoing tests with four experienced neurologists/nuclear medicine physicians are presented. Normal cases of 18 F -- fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) cerebral metabolism studies and abnormal cases in which a variety of lesions have been introduced into normal data sets have been evaluated. We report on the results of reading the reconstructions of 90 data sets, each corresponding to a single brain slice. It has become apparent that the design of the study based on reading single brain slices is too insensitive and we propose a variation based on reading three consecutive slices at a time, rating only the center slice. 9 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Exhaled volatile organic compounds for phenotyping chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Basanta Maria

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Non-invasive phenotyping of chronic respiratory diseases would be highly beneficial in the personalised medicine of the future. Volatile organic compounds can be measured in the exhaled breath and may be produced or altered by disease processes. We investigated whether distinct patterns of these compounds were present in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD and clinically relevant disease phenotypes. Methods Breath samples from 39 COPD subjects and 32 healthy controls were collected and analysed using gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Subjects with COPD also underwent sputum induction. Discriminatory compounds were identified by univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate analysis: 1. principal component analysis; 2. multivariate logistic regression; 3. receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Results Comparing COPD versus healthy controls, principal component analysis clustered the 20 best-discriminating compounds into four components explaining 71% of the variance. Multivariate logistic regression constructed an optimised model using two components with an accuracy of 69%. The model had 85% sensitivity, 50% specificity and ROC area under the curve of 0.74. Analysis of COPD subgroups showed the method could classify COPD subjects with far greater accuracy. Models were constructed which classified subjects with ≥2% sputum eosinophilia with ROC area under the curve of 0.94 and those having frequent exacerbations 0.95. Potential biomarkers correlated to clinical variables were identified in each subgroup. Conclusion The exhaled breath volatile organic compound profile discriminated between COPD and healthy controls and identified clinically relevant COPD subgroups. If these findings are validated in prospective cohorts, they may have diagnostic and management value in this disease.

Respiratory system model for quasistatic pulmonary pressure-volume (P-V) curve: inflation-deflation loop analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Amini, R; Narusawa, U

2008-06-01

A respiratory system model (RSM) is developed for the deflation process of a quasistatic pressure-volume (P-V) curve, following the model for the inflation process reported earlier. In the RSM of both the inflation and the deflation limb, a respiratory system consists of a large population of basic alveolar elements, each consisting of a piston-spring-cylinder subsystem. A normal distribution of the basic elements is derived from Boltzmann statistical model with the alveolar closing (opening) pressure as the distribution parameter for the deflation (inflation) process. An error minimization by the method of least squares applied to existing P-V loop data from two different data sources confirms that a simultaneous inflation-deflation analysis is required for an accurate determination of RSM parameters. Commonly used terms such as lower inflection point, upper inflection point, and compliance are examined based on the P-V equations, on the distribution function, as well as on the geometric and physical properties of the basic alveolar element.

Titration Curves: Fact and Fiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, John

1997-01-01

Discusses ways in which datalogging equipment can enable titration curves to be measured accurately and how computing power can be used to predict the shape of curves. Highlights include sources of error, use of spreadsheets to generate titration curves, titration of a weak acid with a strong alkali, dibasic acids, weak acid and weak base, and…

SILC for SILC: Single Institution Learning Curve for Single-Incision Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

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Chee Wei Tay

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. We report the single-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy (SILC learning experience of 2 hepatobiliary surgeons and the factors that could influence the learning curve of SILC. Methods. Patients who underwent SILC by Surgeons A and B were studied retrospectively. Operating time, conversion rate, reason for conversion, identity of first assistants, and their experience with previous laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC were analysed. CUSUM analysis is used to identify learning curve. Results. Hundred and nineteen SILC cases were performed by Surgeons A and B, respectively. Eight cases required additional port. In CUSUM analysis, most conversion occurred during the first 19 cases. Operating time was significantly lower (62.5 versus 90.6 min, P = 0.04 after the learning curve has been overcome. Operating time decreases as the experience increases, especially Surgeon B. Most conversions are due to adhesion at Calot’s triangle. Acute cholecystitis, patients’ BMI, and previous surgery do not seem to influence conversion rate. Mean operating times of cases assisted by first assistant with and without LC experience were 48 and 74 minutes, respectively (P = 0.004. Conclusion. Nineteen cases are needed to overcome the learning curve of SILC. Team work, assistant with CLC experience, and appropriate equipment and technique are the important factors in performing SILC.

Inverse Diffusion Curves Using Shape Optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Shuang; Durand, Fredo; Zheng, Changxi

2018-07-01

The inverse diffusion curve problem focuses on automatic creation of diffusion curve images that resemble user provided color fields. This problem is challenging since the 1D curves have a nonlinear and global impact on resulting color fields via a partial differential equation (PDE). We introduce a new approach complementary to previous methods by optimizing curve geometry. In particular, we propose a novel iterative algorithm based on the theory of shape derivatives. The resulting diffusion curves are clean and well-shaped, and the final image closely approximates the input. Our method provides a user-controlled parameter to regularize curve complexity, and generalizes to handle input color fields represented in a variety of formats.

Retrograde curves of solidus and solubility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasil'ev, M.V.

1979-01-01

The investigation was concerned with the constitutional diagrams of the eutectic type with ''retrograde solidus'' and ''retrograde solubility curve'' which must be considered as diagrams with degenerate monotectic transformation. The solidus and the solubility curves form a retrograde curve with a common retrograde point representing the solubility maximum. The two branches of the Aetrograde curve can be described with the aid of two similar equations. Presented are corresponding equations for the Cd-Zn system and shown is the possibility of predicting the run of the solubility curve

The Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START): A prospective validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebker-White, Anja A; Bein, Kendall J; Dinh, Michael M

2018-02-08

The present study aims to prospectively validate the Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) to predict ED disposition. This was a prospective validation study at two metropolitan EDs in Sydney, Australia. Consecutive triage encounters were observed by a trained researcher and START scores calculated. The primary outcome was patient disposition (discharge or inpatient admission) from the ED. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate area under curve of receiver operator characteristic (AUC ROC) for START scores as well as START score in combination with other variables such as frailty, general practitioner referral, overcrowding and major medical comorbidities. There were 894 patients analysed during the study period. The START score when applied to the data had AUC ROC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.83). The inclusion of other clinical variables identified at triage did not improve the overall performance of the model with an AUC ROC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) in the present study. The overall performance of the START tool with respect to model discrimination and accuracy has been prospectively validated. Further clinical trials are required to test the clinical effectiveness of the tool in improving patient flow and overall ED performance. © 2018 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Extended analysis of cooling curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Djurdjevic, M.B.; Kierkus, W.T.; Liliac, R.E.; Sokolowski, J.H.

2002-01-01

Thermal Analysis (TA) is the measurement of changes in a physical property of a material that is heated through a phase transformation temperature range. The temperature changes in the material are recorded as a function of the heating or cooling time in such a manner that allows for the detection of phase transformations. In order to increase accuracy, characteristic points on the cooling curve have been identified using the first derivative curve plotted versus time. In this paper, an alternative approach to the analysis of the cooling curve has been proposed. The first derivative curve has been plotted versus temperature and all characteristic points have been identified with the same accuracy achieved using the traditional method. The new cooling curve analysis also enables the Dendrite Coherency Point (DCP) to be detected using only one thermocouple. (author)

Predictive inference for best linear combination of biomarkers subject to limits of detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

2017-08-15

Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate between two classes or groups. In practice, multiple diagnostic tests or biomarkers are combined to improve diagnostic accuracy. Often, biomarker measurements are undetectable either below or above the so-called limits of detection (LoD). In this paper, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for best linear combination of two or more biomarkers subject to limits of detection is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modelling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. The NPI lower and upper bounds for the ROC curve subject to limits of detection are derived, where the objective function to maximize is the area under the ROC curve. In addition, the paper discusses the effect of restriction on the linear combination's coefficients on the analysis. Examples are provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hussien, Amr Elsayed M. [Department of Nuclear Medicine (KME), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Jülich, 52426 (Germany); Department of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, 40225 (Germany); Furth, Christian [Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical School, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Magdeburg, 39120 (Germany); Schönberger, Stefan [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Hematology and Clinical Immunology, University Children’s Hospital, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, 40225 (Germany); Hundsdoerfer, Patrick [Department of Pediatric Oncology and Hematology, Charité Campus Virchow, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, 13353 (Germany); Steffen, Ingo G.; Amthauer, Holger [Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical School, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Magdeburg, 39120 (Germany); Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus, E-mail: h.hautzel@fz-juelich.de [Department of Nuclear Medicine (KME), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Jülich, 52426 (Germany); Department of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, 40225 (Germany)

2015-01-28

Background: In pediatric Hodgkin’s lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); Methods: One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; Results: All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Conclusions: Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV.

FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussien, Amr Elsayed M.; Furth, Christian; Schönberger, Stefan; Hundsdoerfer, Patrick; Steffen, Ingo G.; Amthauer, Holger; Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus

2015-01-01

Background: In pediatric Hodgkin’s lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); Methods: One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; Results: All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Conclusions: Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV

Detection of pulmonary nodules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanzulli, A.; Zanello, A.; DelMaschio, M.; Paesano, P.; Panizza, P.; DelMaschio, A.

1989-01-01

The authors have prospectively studied 203 pulmonary nodules in 91 patients, selected by CT (gold standard), with both subtraction digital radiography (SDR) and conventional plain film. Subtracted images were obtained by using copper filter inserted between two photostimulable imaging plates. Five radiologists randomly analyzed all conventional and subtracted images. The authors calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for both conventional radiography and SDR. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were calculated by plotting the number of nodules detected with different degrees of confidence. SDR detected 12% more nodules than conventional radiography. ROC curves demonstrated that the level of confidence was better for SDR (P <.05)

Validation of treatment escalation as a definition of atopic eczema flares.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim S Thomas

Full Text Available Atopic eczema (AE is a chronic disease with flares and remissions. Long-term control of AE flares has been identified as a core outcome domain for AE trials. However, it is unclear how flares should be defined and measured.To validate two concepts of AE flares based on daily reports of topical medication use: (i escalation of treatment and (ii days of topical anti-inflammatory medication use (topical corticosteroids and/or calcineurin inhibitors.Data from two published AE studies (studies A (n=336 and B (n=60 were analysed separately. Validity and feasibility of flare definitions were assessed using daily global bother (scale 0 to 10 as the reference standard. Intra-class correlations were reported for continuous variables, and odds ratios and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve for binary outcome measures.Good agreement was found between both AE flare definitions and change in global bother: area under the ROC curve for treatment escalation of 0.70 and 0.73 in studies A and B respectively, and area under the ROC curve of 0.69 for topical anti-inflammatory medication use (Study A only. Significant positive relationships were found between validated severity scales (POEM, SASSAD, TIS and the duration of AE flares occurring in the previous week - POEM and SASSAD rose by half a point for each unit increase in number of days in flare. Smaller increases were observed on the TIS scale. Completeness of daily diaries was 95% for Study A and 60% for Study B over 16 weeks.Both definitions were good proxy indicators of AE flares. We found no evidence that 'escalation of treatment' was a better measure of AE flares than 'use of topical anti-inflammatory medications'. Capturing disease flares in AE trials through daily recording of medication use is feasible and appears to be a good indicator of long-term control.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN71423189 (Study A.

Reticulo-rumen temperature as a predictor of calving time in primiparous and parous Holstein females.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, J B G; Ahola, J K; Weller, Z D; Peel, R K; Whittier, J C; Barcellos, J O J

2016-06-01

The objective of this research was to define and analyze drops in reticulo-rumen temperature (Trr) as an indicator of calving time in Holstein females. Data were collected from 111 primiparous and 150 parous Holstein females between November 2012 and March 2013. Between -15 and -5 d relative to anticipated calving date, each female received an orally administered temperature sensing reticulo-rumen bolus that collected temperatures hourly. Daily mean Trr was calculated from d -5 to 0 relative to using all Trr values (A-Trr) or only Trr values ≥37.7°C (W-Trr) not altered by water intake. To identify a Trr drop, 2 methodologies for computing the baseline temperature were used. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to estimate the probability of calving within the next 12 or 24 h for primiparous, parous, and all females, based on the size of the Trr drop. For all GLM, a large drop in Trr corresponded with a large estimated probability of calving. The predictive power of the GLM was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC curve analyses showed that all models, regardless of methodology in calculation of the baseline or tested category (primiparous or parous), were able to predict calving; however, area under the ROC curve values, an indication of prediction quality, were greater for methods predicting calving within 24 h. Further comparisons between GLM for primiparous and parous, and using baseline 1 and 2, provide insight on the differences in predictive performance. Based on the GLM, Trr drops of 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4°C were identified as useful indicators of parturition and further analyzed using sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios. Based on sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios, the best indicator of calving was an average Trr drop ≥0.2°C, regardless of methodology used to compute the baseline or category of animal evaluated. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by

Evaluation of cancer detection efficiency by means of hybrid and inverse filter in chest radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Youn Young; Kim, Tae Young; Kim, Hyun Ji; Kim, Jung Min; Park, Min Seock

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate usefulness of Hybrid image and Inverse image about detection of tumor shadow in chest radiography using ROC analysis. Original images of 60 cases are selected from Standards digital image date base issued by the Japanese Society of Radiological Technology. Through computer language of C, Inverse images of 60 cases and Hybrid image of 30 cases are made. The continues reading experiment was conducted. In the case of inverse image were observed by 5 radiographer and 2 radiologist. In the case of In case of Hybrid image were observed by 3 student radiographer and 2 experienced radiographer. ROC curve are constructed using ROCKIT Program made by Metz. In Inverse image, a Az of average ROC curve was increases from 0.742 of original image to 0.775 of inverse image. In normal cases, the effect of the detrimental is same to that of the beneficial, however In abnormal cases, the beneficial effect is greater than detrimental effect. However in Hybrid image, a Az of average ROC curve was decreases from 0.5253 of original image to 0.4868 of Hybrid image. In Normal cases, the effect of the detrimental is greater than that of the Beneficial, however In abnormal cases, the Beneficial effect is greater than detrimental effect. The inverse image can be more positively considered for the detecting of tumor than the hybrid image

Microcomputer-controlled thermoluminescent analyser IJS MR-200

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihelic, M.; Miklavzic, U.; Rupnik, Z.; Satalic, P.; Spreizer, F.; Zerovnik, I.

1985-01-01

Performances and concept of the multipurpose, microcomputer-controlled thermoluminescent analyser, designed for use in laboratory work TL dosemeters as well as for routine dose readings in the range from ecological to accident doses is described. The main features of the analyser are: time-linear sampling, digitalisation, storing, and subsequent displaying on the monitor time scale of the glow and and temperature curve of the TL material; digital stabilization, control and diagnostic of the analog unit; ability of storing 7 different 8-parametric heating programs; ability of storing 15 evaluation programs defined by 2 or 4 parameters and 3 different algorithms (altogether 5 types of evaluations). Analyser has several features intended for routine work: 9 function keys and possibilities of file forming on cassette or display disc, of dose calculation and averaging, of printing reports with names, and possibility of additional programming in Basic. (author)

Tempo curves considered harmful

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Desain, P.; Honing, H.

1993-01-01

In the literature of musicology, computer music research and the psychology of music, timing or tempo measurements are mostly presented in the form of continuous curves. The notion of these tempo curves is dangerous, despite its widespread use, because it lulls its users into the false impression

[Evaluation of preparation of curved root canals using hand-used ProTaper].

Science.gov (United States)

Nie, Min; Zhao, Xin-Chen; Peng, Bin; Fan, Ming-Wen; Bian, Zhuan

2009-05-01

To evaluate the shaping ability of hand-used ProTaper on curved canals using Endodontic Cube. Fifty-four curved root canals in vitro were selected and divided into three groups according to the curved degree (alpha), group A: 0 degrees hand-used ProTaper. Before and after shaping, photograph of all the sections were taken under a stereomicroscope. Statistical analyses were performed. The dentin cutting quantity of the whole canal prepared with ProTaper in group B and C was larger than that of group A. The deviation distance of the whole canal prepared by ProTaper in group C was significantly larger than that in group A, and the deviation distance in middle portion larger than that in group B. The maintaining ability in the middle portion of group C by ProTaper was worse than that of group A and B. The curvature of root canal may increase the cutting quantity of the -dentin and reduce the ability of remaining original canal shape prepared by ProTaper.

Genome association study through nonlinear mixed models revealed new candidate genes for pig growth curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Genome association analyses have been successful in identifying quantitative trait loci (QTLs for pig body weights measured at a single age. However, when considering the whole weight trajectories over time in the context of genome association analyses, it is important to look at the markers that affect growth curve parameters. The easiest way to consider them is via the two-step method, in which the growth curve parameters and marker effects are estimated separately, thereby resulting in a reduction of the statistical power and the precision of estimates. One efficient solution is to adopt nonlinear mixed models (NMM, which enables a joint modeling of the individual growth curves and marker effects. Our aim was to propose a genome association analysis for growth curves in pigs based on NMM as well as to compare it with the traditional two-step method. In addition, we also aimed to identify the nearest candidate genes related to significant SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism markers. The NMM presented a higher number of significant SNPs for adult weight (A and maturity rate (K, and provided a direct way to test SNP significance simultaneously for both the A and K parameters. Furthermore, all significant SNPs from the two-step method were also reported in the NMM analysis. The ontology of the three candidate genes (SH3BGRL2, MAPK14, and MYL9 derived from significant SNPs (simultaneously affecting A and K allows us to make inferences with regards to their contribution to the pig growth process in the population studied.

Image scaling curve generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

2012-01-01

The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

Image scaling curve generation.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

2011-01-01

The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

End effect Keff bias curve for actinide-only burnup credit casks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C.H.; Lancaster, D.B.

1997-01-01

A conservative end effect k eff bias curve for actinide-only burnup credit for spent fuel casks is presented in this paper. The k eff bias values can be added to the uniform axial burnup analysis to conservatively bound the actinide-only end effect. A normalized axial burnup distribution for the standard Westinghouse 17 x 17 assembly design is used for calculating k eff . The end effect calculated is a strong function of burnup, and increases as cask size size decreases. The presence of poison plates increases the end effect. The bias curve presented is based on the most limiting cask configuration of a single PWR assembly with completely black poison plates. Therefore, axially uniform criticality calculations with application of the proposed k eff could eliminate the need for axially burnup dependent analyses. 7 refs., 1 fig

Comparative multivariate analyses of transient otoacoustic emissions and distorsion products in normal and impaired hearing.

Science.gov (United States)

Stamate, Mirela Cristina; Todor, Nicolae; Cosgarea, Marcel

2015-01-01

The clinical utility of otoacoustic emissions as a noninvasive objective test of cochlear function has been long studied. Both transient otoacoustic emissions and distorsion products can be used to identify hearing loss, but to what extent they can be used as predictors for hearing loss is still debated. Most studies agree that multivariate analyses have better test performances than univariate analyses. The aim of the study was to determine transient otoacoustic emissions and distorsion products performance in identifying normal and impaired hearing loss, using the pure tone audiogram as a gold standard procedure and different multivariate statistical approaches. The study included 105 adult subjects with normal hearing and hearing loss who underwent the same test battery: pure-tone audiometry, tympanometry, otoacoustic emission tests. We chose to use the logistic regression as a multivariate statistical technique. Three logistic regression models were developed to characterize the relations between different risk factors (age, sex, tinnitus, demographic features, cochlear status defined by otoacoustic emissions) and hearing status defined by pure-tone audiometry. The multivariate analyses allow the calculation of the logistic score, which is a combination of the inputs, weighted by coefficients, calculated within the analyses. The accuracy of each model was assessed using receiver operating characteristics curve analysis. We used the logistic score to generate receivers operating curves and to estimate the areas under the curves in order to compare different multivariate analyses. We compared the performance of each otoacoustic emission (transient, distorsion product) using three different multivariate analyses for each ear, when multi-frequency gold standards were used. We demonstrated that all multivariate analyses provided high values of the area under the curve proving the performance of the otoacoustic emissions. Each otoacoustic emission test presented high

ROC Analysis of Visual Assessments Made in Gated Blood Pool Scans of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Kyung Han; Choi, Yoon Ho; Lee, Bum Woo; Moon, Dae Hyuk; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul; Koh, Chang Soon; Koong, Sung Soo

1989-01-01

Visual assessment of regional wall motion abnormality (RWMA) by gated blood pol scan (GBPS) serves as an useful parameter in thc diagnosis, functional evaluation, and follow up in various clinical settings, but are still subject to some inherent limitations. On important problem may be the interobserver as well as intraobsever variation that may well be present due to the subjective nature of the interpretations. This study was carried out to determine the reliability and reproducibility of visual assessments made in GBPSs, and to observe the degree to which the results would be influenced by observer variation. Fifty two patients with coronary heart disease had resting GBPS and contrast ventriculography within 4 days apart. Contrast ventriculography showed normal wall motion in 6 patients and the remaining 46 had RWMA in one or more segments. The anterior and left anterolateral views of all 52 GBPSs were analyzed by three independent observers, who selected from 5 scales, their level of confidence that there was RWMA in that segment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for each analysis was plotted and the area under the curve (θ) was used as a parameter representing each observer's performance in his interpretations. The findings of contract ventriculographies were used as the standard for RWMA. The apical and inferoapical segments showed the best correlation with contrast ventriculography (θ=0.90-.094, 0.81-0.94, respectively), and the inferior wall showed the poorest correlation (θ=0.70-0.74). The interpretations of the inferior, septal, apical and posteroinferior, segments showed no difference between the observers, but there was significantly better performance in assessment by observer A compared to that by B or C for the anterolateral segments (θ=0.87, 0.78, 0.76, respectively, p<0.01 for A vs B, p<0,05 for A vs C), as well as when all segments were considered altogether (θ=0,88, 0.83, 0.82, respectively, both p<0 05). This was also true for

Anterior Overgrowth in Primary Curves, Compensatory Curves and Junctional Segments in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlösser, Tom P C; van Stralen, Marijn; Chu, Winnie C W; Lam, Tsz-Ping; Ng, Bobby K W; Vincken, Koen L; Cheng, Jack C Y; Castelein, René M

2016-01-01

Although much attention has been given to the global three-dimensional aspect of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), the accurate three-dimensional morphology of the primary and compensatory curves, as well as the intervening junctional segments, in the scoliotic spine has not been described before. A unique series of 77 AIS patients with high-resolution CT scans of the spine, acquired for surgical planning purposes, were included and compared to 22 healthy controls. Non-idiopathic curves were excluded. Endplate segmentation and local longitudinal axis in endplate plane enabled semi-automatic geometric analysis of the complete three-dimensional morphology of the spine, taking inter-vertebral rotation, intra-vertebral torsion and coronal and sagittal tilt into account. Intraclass correlation coefficients for interobserver reliability were 0.98-1.00. Coronal deviation, axial rotation and the exact length discrepancies in the reconstructed sagittal plane, as defined per vertebra and disc, were analyzed for each primary and compensatory curve as well as for the junctional segments in-between. The anterior-posterior difference of spinal length, based on "true" anterior and posterior points on endplates, was +3.8% for thoracic and +9.4% for (thoraco)lumbar curves, while the junctional segments were almost straight. This differed significantly from control group thoracic kyphosis (-4.1%; P<0.001) and lumbar lordosis (+7.8%; P<0.001). For all primary as well as compensatory curves, we observed linear correlations between the coronal Cobb angle, axial rotation and the anterior-posterior length difference (r≥0.729 for thoracic curves; r≥0.485 for (thoraco)lumbar curves). Excess anterior length of the spine in AIS has been described as a generalized growth disturbance, causing relative anterior spinal overgrowth. This study is the first to demonstrate that this anterior overgrowth is not a generalized phenomenon. It is confined to the primary as well as the

Development of a statistically-based lower bound fracture toughness curve (Ksub(IR) curve)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wullaert, R.A.; Server, W.L.; Oldfield, W.; Stahlkopf, K.E.

1977-01-01

A program of initiation fracture toughness measurements on fifty heats of nuclear pressure vessel production materials (including weldments) was used to develop a methodology for establishing a revised reference toughness curve. The new methodology was statistically developed and provides a predefined confidence limit (or tolerance limit) for fracture toughness based upon many heats of a particular type of material. Overall reference curves were developed for seven specific materials using large specimen static and dynamic fracture toughness results. The heat-to-heat variation was removed by normalizing both the fracture toughness and temperature data with the precracked Charpy tanh curve coefficients for each particular heat. The variance and distribution about the curve were determined, and lower bounds of predetermined statistical significance were drawn based upon a Pearson distribution in the lower shelf region (since the data were skewed to high values) and a t-distribution in the transition temperature region (since the data were normally distributed)

Regional variation of flow duration curves in the eastern United States: Process-based analyses of the interaction between climate and landscape properties

Science.gov (United States)

Chouaib, Wafa; Caldwell, Peter V.; Alila, Younes

2018-04-01

This paper advances the physical understanding of the flow duration curve (FDC) regional variation. It provides a process-based analysis of the interaction between climate and landscape properties to explain disparities in FDC shapes. We used (i) long term measured flow and precipitation data over 73 catchments from the eastern US. (ii) We calibrated the Sacramento model (SAC-SMA) to simulate soil moisture and flow components FDCs. The catchments classification based on storm characteristics pointed to the effect of catchments landscape properties on the precipitation variability and consequently on the FDC shapes. The landscape properties effect was pronounce such that low value of the slope of FDC (SFDC)-hinting at limited flow variability-were present in regions of high precipitation variability. Whereas, in regions with low precipitation variability the SFDCs were of larger values. The topographic index distribution, at the catchment scale, indicated that saturation excess overland flow mitigated the flow variability under conditions of low elevations with large soil moisture storage capacity and high infiltration rates. The SFDCs increased due to the predominant subsurface stormflow in catchments at high elevations with limited soil moisture storage capacity and low infiltration rates. Our analyses also highlighted the major role of soil infiltration rates on the FDC despite the impact of the predominant runoff generation mechanism and catchment elevation. In conditions of slow infiltration rates in soils of large moisture storage capacity (at low elevations) and predominant saturation excess, the SFDCs were of larger values. On the other hand, the SFDCs decreased in catchments of prevalent subsurface stormflow and poorly drained soils of small soil moisture storage capacity. The analysis of the flow components FDCs demonstrated that the interflow contribution to the response was the higher in catchments with large value of slope of the FDC. The surface flow

What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesicki, Fabian

2013-01-01

Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are widely used for the assessment of costs related to CO 2 emissions reduction in environmental economics, as well as domestic and international climate policy. Several meta-analyses and model comparisons have previously been performed that aim to identify the causes for the wide range of MAC curves. Most of these concentrate on general equilibrium models with a focus on aspects such as specific model type and technology learning, while other important aspects remain almost unconsidered, including the availability of abatement technologies and level of discount rates. This paper addresses the influence of several key parameters on MAC curves for the United Kingdom and the year 2030. A technology-rich energy system model, UK MARKAL, is used to derive the MAC curves. The results of this study show that MAC curves are robust even to extreme fossil fuel price changes, while uncertainty around the choice of the discount rate, the availability of key abatement technologies and the demand level were singled out as the most important influencing factors. By using a different model type and studying a wider range of influencing factors, this paper contributes to the debate on the sensitivity of MAC curves. - Highlights: ► A partial-equilibrium model is employed to test key sensitivities of MAC curves. ► MAC curves are found to be robust to wide-ranging changes in fossil fuel prices. ► Most influencing factors are the discount rate, availability of key technologies. ► Further important uncertainty in MAC curves is related to demand changes

Impact of tumour volume on prediction of progression-free survival in sinonasal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennersdorf, Florian; Mauz, Paul-Stefan; Adam, Patrick; Welz, Stefan; Sievert, Anne; Ernemann, Ulrike; Bisdas, Sotirios

2015-01-01

The present study aimed to analyse potential prognostic factors, with emphasis on tumour volume, in determining progression free survival (PFS) for malignancies of the nasal cavity and the paranasal sinuses. Retrospective analysis of 106 patients with primary sinonasal malignancies treated and followed-up between March 2006 and October 2012. Possible predictive parameters for PFS were entered into univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis included age, sex, baseline tumour volume (based on MR imaging), histology type, TNM stage and prognostic groups according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis concerning the predictive value of tumour volume for recurrence was also conducted. The main histological subgroup consisted of epithelial tumours (77%). The majority of the patients (68%) showed advanced tumour burden (AJCC stage III–IV). Lymph node involvement was present in 18 cases. The mean tumour volume was 26.6 ± 21.2 cm 3 . The median PFS for all patients was 24.9 months (range: 2.5–84.5 months). The ROC curve analysis for the tumour volume showed 58.1% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity for predicting recurrence. Tumour volume, AJCC staging, T- and N- stage were significant predictors in the univariate analysis. Positive lymph node status and tumour volume remained significant and independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. Radiological tumour volume proofed to be a statistically reliable predictor of PFS. In the multivariate analysis, T-, N- and overall AJCC staging did not show significant prognostic value

Anthropometric indicators of obesity such as predictors of high blood pressure in the elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keila de Oliveira Diniz

2017-05-01

Full Text Available DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2017v19n1p31   High blood pressure is a leading cause of mortality worldwide and a risk factor for several diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of anthropometric indicators of obesity and establish their cutoff points as discriminators of hypertension and identify the anthropometric indicator of obesity that best discriminates high blood pressure in the elderly. This is a cross-sectional study with a sample of 300 older adults, 167 (56.5% women. The following anthropometric indicators of obesity were measured: body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist / height ratio (WHtR and conicity index. Moreover, systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements were collected. To identify hypertension predictors, the analysis of receiver operating curves (ROC with 95% confidence interval was adopted. Subsequently, cutoff points with their respective sensitivities and specificities were identified. Analyses were carried out considering 5% significance level. It was observed that some anthropometric indicators of obesity showed area under the curve (AUC significant with BMI = 0.60 (0.50 to 0.70; WHtR = 0.61 (0.51 to 0.71; conicity index = 0.58 (0.58 to 0.68 in men. The different cutoff points of anthropometric indicators with better predictive power and their respective sensitivities and specificities were identified. The best areas under the ROC curve were for BMI, WHtR and conicity index for men; however, such measures were not satisfactory to predict high blood pressure in women.

Quantitative analyses of schizophrenia-associated metabolites in serum: serum D-lactate levels are negatively correlated with gamma-glutamylcysteine in medicated schizophrenia patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takeshi Fukushima

Full Text Available The serum levels of several metabolites are significantly altered in schizophrenia patients. In this study, we performed a targeted analysis of 34 candidate metabolites in schizophrenia patients (n = 25 and compared them with those in age- and gender-matched healthy subjects (n = 27. Orthogonal partial least square-discriminant analysis revealed that complete separation between controls and patients was achieved based on these metabolites. We found that the levels of γ-glutamylcysteine (γ-GluCys, linoleic acid, arachidonic acid, D-serine, 3-hydroxybutyrate, glutathione (GSH, 5-hydroxytryptamine, threonine, and tyrosine were significantly lower, while D-lactate, tryptophan, kynurenine, and glutamate levels were significantly higher in schizophrenia patients compared to controls. Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC curve analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, and the area under curve of γ-GluCys, a precursor of GSH, and D-lactate, a terminal metabolite of methylglyoxal, were 88.00%, 81.48%, and 0.8874, and 88.00%, 77.78%, and 0.8415, respectively. In addition, serum levels of D-lactate were negatively correlated with γ-GluCys levels in patients, but not in controls. The present results suggest that oxidative stress-induced damage may be involved in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia.

Tension Behaviour on the Connection of the Cold-Formed Cut-Curved Steel Channel Section

Science.gov (United States)

Sani, Mohd Syahrul Hisyam Mohd; Muftah, Fadhluhartini; Fakri Muda, Mohd; Siang Tan, Cher

2017-08-01

Cold-formed steel (CFS) are utilised as a non-structural and structural element in construction activity especially a residential house and small building roof truss system. CFS with a lot of advantages and some of disadvantages such as buckling that must be prevented for roof truss production are being studied equally. CFS was used as a top chord of the roof truss system which normally a slender section is dramatically influenced to buckling failure and instability of the structure. So, the curved section is produced for a top chord for solving the compression member of the roof truss. Besides, there are lacked of design and production information about the CFS curved channel section. In the study, the CFS is bent by using a cut-curved method because of ease of production, without the use of skilled labour and high cost machine. The tension behaviour of the strengthening method of cut-curved or could be recognised as a connection of the cut-curved section was tested and analysed. There are seven types of connection was selected. From the testing and observation, it is shown the specimen with full weld along the cut section and adds with flange element plate with two self-drilling screws (F7A) was noted to have a higher value of ultimate load. Finally, there are three alternative methods of connection for CFS cut-curved that could be a reference for a contractor and further design.

Optimal threshold estimation for binary classifiers using game theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, Ignacio Enrique

2016-01-01

Many bioinformatics algorithms can be understood as binary classifiers. They are usually compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic ( ROC ) curve. On the other hand, choosing the best threshold for practical use is a complex task, due to uncertain and context-dependent skews in the abundance of positives in nature and in the yields/costs for correct/incorrect classification. We argue that considering a classifier as a player in a zero-sum game allows us to use the minimax principle from game theory to determine the optimal operating point. The proposed classifier threshold corresponds to the intersection between the ROC curve and the descending diagonal in ROC space and yields a minimax accuracy of 1-FPR. Our proposal can be readily implemented in practice, and reveals that the empirical condition for threshold estimation of "specificity equals sensitivity" maximizes robustness against uncertainties in the abundance of positives in nature and classification costs.

Intelligence, genes, and success scientists respond to the bell curve

CERN Document Server

Fienberg, Stephen; Resnick, Daniel; Roeder, Kathryn

1997-01-01

This is author-approved bcc. If it is too long, delete the last sentence in each of the biographies. THE BELL CURVE by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, a best selling book published in 1994, set off a hailstorm of controversy about the relationships among IQ, genetics, and various social outcomes, including welfare dependency, crime, and earnings. Much of the public reaction to the book was polemical and did not focus on the details of the science and in particular on the validity of the statistical arguments that underlie the books's conclusions. A detailed understanding of the arguments in THE BELL CURVE requires knowledge about (i) statistical models for genetic heritability, (ii) factor analysis, especially as it has been applied to the analysis of IQ tests, (iii) logistic regression and multiple regression analyses,and (iv) causal modelling and alternative statistical frameworks for making inference from longitudinal data. In this volume a group of statisticians and social scientists have assembled...

Curve-of-growth analysis of a red giant in the globular cluster M13

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffin, R.

1979-01-01

A coude spectrogram of a red giant (L973) in the globular cluster M13 is analysed, with respect to α Boo, by the differential curve-of-growth technique. The overall metal abundance is found to be approximately one-tenth of that of α Boo, or one-fortieth that of the Sun. (author)

A note on families of fragility curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, S.; Bier, V.M.; Bley, D.C.

1989-01-01

In the quantitative assessment of seismic risk, uncertainty in the fragility of a structural component is usually expressed by putting forth a family of fragility curves, with probability serving as the parameter of the family. Commonly, a lognormal shape is used both for the individual curves and for the expression of uncertainty over the family. A so-called composite single curve can also be drawn and used for purposes of approximation. This composite curve is often regarded as equivalent to the mean curve of the family. The equality seems intuitively reasonable, but according to the authors has never been proven. The paper presented proves this equivalence hypothesis mathematically. Moreover, the authors show that this equivalence hypothesis between fragility curves is itself equivalent to an identity property of the standard normal probability curve. Thus, in the course of proving the fragility curve hypothesis, the authors have also proved a rather obscure, but interesting and perhaps previously unrecognized, property of the standard normal curve

An investigation on vulnerability assessment of steel structures with thin steel shear wall through development of fragility curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Gerami

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Fragility curves play an important role in damage assessment of buildings. Probability of damage induction to the structure against seismic events can be investigated upon generation of afore mentioned curves. In current research 360 time history analyses have been carried out on structures of 3, 10 and 20 story height and subsequently fragility curves have been adopted. The curves are developed based on two indices of inter story drifts and equivalent strip axial strains of the shear wall. Time history analysis is carried out in Perform 3d considering 10 far field seismograms and 10 near fields. Analysis of low height structures revealed that they are more vulnerable in accelerations lower than 0.8 g in near field earthquakes because of higher mode effects. Upon the generated fragility curves it was observed that middle and high structures have more acceptable performance and lower damage levels compared to low height structures in both near and far field seismic hazards.

Measuring agreement between rating interpretations and binary clinical interpretations of images: a simulation study of methods for quantifying the clinical relevance of an observer performance paradigm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, Dev P

2012-01-01

Laboratory receiver operating characteristic (ROC) studies, that are often used to evaluate medical imaging systems, differ from ‘live’ clinical interpretations in several respects which could compromise their clinical relevance. The aim was to develop methodology for quantifying the clinical relevance of a laboratory ROC study. A simulator was developed to generate ROC ratings data and binary clinical interpretations classified as correct or incorrect for a common set of images interpreted under clinical and laboratory conditions. The area under the trapezoidal ROC curve (AUC) was used as the laboratory figure-of-merit and the fraction of correct clinical decisions as the clinical figure-of-merit. Conventional agreement measures (Pearson, Spearman, Kendall and kappa) between the bootstrap-induced fluctuations of the two figures of merit were estimated. A jackknife pseudovalue transformation applied to the figures of merit was also investigated as a way to capture agreement existing at the individual image level that could be lost at the figure-of-merit level. It is shown that the pseudovalues define a relevance-ROC curve. The area under this curve (rAUC) measures the ability of the laboratory figure-of-merit-based pseudovalues to correctly classify incorrect versus correct clinical interpretations. Therefore, rAUC is a measure of the clinical relevance of an ROC study. The conventional measures and rAUC were compared under varying simulator conditions. It was found that design details of the ROC study, namely the number of bins, the difficulty level of the images, the ratio of disease-present to disease-absent images and the unavoidable difference between laboratory and clinical performance levels, can lead to serious underestimation of the agreement as indicated by conventional agreement measures, even for perfectly correlated data, while rAUC showed high agreement and was relatively immune to these details. At the same time rAUC was sensitive to factors such

Predicting hemorrhage and obstruction in the elderly population using thromboelastographic indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zheng Q

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Qiwen Zheng,1,* Shuhong Fu,2,* Dafang Chen,1 Xiaoxia Li,2 Yuru Li,2 Yanyan Li,2 Jihong Yu,2 Meiliang Gong,2 Jie Bai2 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, People's Republic of China; 2Nanlou Clinical Lab, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: To estimate the value of the different thromboelastogram indices for predicting hemorrhage and vascular obstruction in an elderly population. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients 65 years and older without hematologic disorders who received thromboelastography (TEG examination at the Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital from January 2007 to December 2010. Detailed information was collected at recruitment including their TEG test results. Subjects were then followed during outpatient visits and hospitalization. The primary outcome measures were hemorrhage and vascular obstruction. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC curves were used to compare the predictive value of the four TEG indices, reaction time (R, clot formation time (K, maximal amplitude (MA, alpha angle (ANGLE and their combination for predicting hemorrhage and vascular obstruction. The maximal Youden's index was used to estimate optimal cut-off values for the indices. Areas under the ROC curves were used to estimate overall predictive accuracies. Results: A total of 403 elderly patients met inclusion criteria and were included: 373 male and 30 females with mean age 83.0 ± 7.3 years and range of 65–103 years. Hemorrhage occurred in 25 (6.2% patients and vascular obstruction in 78 (19.4% patients during the 2-year follow up. The currently recommended TEG cut-off values were poorly predictive of vascular obstruction and modestly predictive of hemorrhage. Based on maximal Youden's, the optimal cutoffs of the TEG indices for predicting vascular

Power forward curves: a managerial perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagarajan, Shankar

1999-01-01

This chapter concentrates on managerial application of power forward curves, and examines the determinants of electricity prices such as transmission constraints, its inability to be stored in a conventional way, its seasonality and weather dependence, the generation stack, and the swing risk. The electricity forward curve, classical arbitrage, constructing a forward curve, volatilities, and electricity forward curve models such as the jump-diffusion model, the mean-reverting heteroscedastic volatility model, and an econometric model of forward prices are examined. A managerial perspective of the applications of the forward curve is presented covering plant valuation, capital budgeting, performance measurement, product pricing and structuring, asset optimisation, valuation of transmission options, and risk management

Discriminação entre olhos normais e glaucomatosos mediante polarimetria de varredura a laser Discrimination between normal and glaucomatous eyes by scanning laser polarimetry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leopoldo Magacho

2004-04-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVOS: Avaliar a capacidade da polarimetria de varredura a laser de discriminar entre olhos normais e glaucomatosos. MÉTODOS: Cento e doze pacientes com glaucoma primário de ângulo aberto e 88 indivíduos normais foram incluídos no estudo. Todos os indivíduos foram submetidos a exame oftalmológico completo, perimetria computadorizada (Humphrey 24-2, full threshold, avaliando-se Mean Deviation (MD e Correct Pattern Standard Deviation (CPSD e exame com GDx. Curvas ROC foram criadas e novos pontos de corte para cada parâmetro individual do GDx estabelecidos para estabelecer uma melhor relação sensibilidade/especificidade (Se/Es no diagnóstico do glaucoma. A seguir, uma função discriminante com 2 parâmetros do GDx (ellipse modulation e the number e idade por meio da análise logística multivariada foi criada com o mesmo propósito. RESULTADOS: Os parâmetros individuais do GDx com melhor relação Se/Es foram: the number (Se: 79,5%, Es: 81,8%, área abaixo da curva ROC: 0,870, maximum modullation (Se: 83,0%, Es: 76,1%, área abaixo da curva ROC: 0,842 e ellipse modulation (Se: 65,2%, Es: 88,6%, área abaixo da curva ROC: 0,831. A função discriminante criada obteve resultados superiores a qualquer parâmetro do GDx isolado (Se: 85,7%, Es: 90,9%, a área abaixo da curva ROC: 0,920. CONCLUSÃO: A combinação de dois ou mais fatores em uma função logística multivariada aumenta a capacidade da polarimetria de varredura a laser de discriminar entre olhos normais e glaucomatosos.PURPOSE: To test the ability of the scanning laser polarimetry to discriminate between normal and glaucomatous eyes. METHODS: One-hundred and twelve patients with primary open-angle glaucoma and 88 normal individuals were enrolled in the study. All individuals underwent a complete ophthalmic evaluation, a 24-2 full threshold Humphrey visual field and a GDx examination. Cutoff points were selected, ROC curves were created, and the sensitivity (Se and

On the frontier of boiling curve and beyond design of its origin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stosic, Z.V.

2005-01-01

An advanced approach of Extended Design of the Boiling Curve beyond its origin is proposed. It is developed from the fact that both CHF (Critical Heat Flux) and rewetting affect the Boiling Curve on the heating surface through two simultaneous processes taking place on both sides of the heating surface. The first is two-phase flow thermal-hydraulics with resultant heat transferred from the heating surface to the coolant. The second one is the heat conduction through material itself, allied with the balance of generated and accumulated energy. Both of these processes are triggered by the change in HTC (Heat Transfer Coefficient) on the heating surface, which accordingly influences the Boiling Curve. Depending on direction of the Transition - from nucleate to film boiling or vice versa - these processes act differently and direct the Boiling Curve to diverse paths. The proposed physically based concept recognises this fact and introduces HTC as the triggering parameter with instant effect. It is implemented in the subchannel code COBRA 3-CP providing stable rewetting which has been deficient in COBRA since its origin. Results of validation and obtained agreements with transient measured data prove legality of the advanced concept of Boiling Curve. This approach is being used for transient analyses of PWR (Pressurised Water Reactor) gaining benefits from properly predicting the rewetting. The method is well-qualified to be applied also in other thermal-hydraulic codes like COBRA/TRAC, COBRA-TF, TRAC and/or RELAP, where the classical steady-state and poolboiling approach has been originally implemented. (author)

Consistent Valuation across Curves Using Pricing Kernels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Macrina

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset’s cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each identified by a yield curve having its own market, credit and liquidity risk characteristics. The proposed framework precludes arbitrage within each market, while the definition of a curve-conversion factor process links all markets in a consistent arbitrage-free manner. A pricing formula is then derived, referred to as the across-curve pricing formula, which enables consistent valuation and hedging of financial instruments across curves (and markets. As a natural application, a consistent multi-curve framework is formulated for emerging and developed inter-bank swap markets, which highlights an important dual feature of the curve-conversion factor process. Given this multi-curve framework, existing multi-curve approaches based on HJM and rational pricing kernel models are recovered, reviewed and generalised and single-curve models extended. In another application, inflation-linked, currency-based and fixed-income hybrid securities are shown to be consistently valued using the across-curve valuation method.

The estimation of I–V curves of PV panel using manufacturers’ I–V curves and evolutionary strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barukčić, M.; Hederić, Ž.; Špoljarić, Ž.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The approximation of a I–V curve by two linear and a sigmoid functions is proposed. • The sigmoid function is used to estimate the knee of the I–V curve. • Dependence on irradiance and temperature of sigmoid function parameters is proposed. • The sigmoid function is used to estimate maximum power point (MPP). - Abstract: The method for estimation of I–V curves of photovoltaic (PV) panel by analytic expression is presented in the paper. The problem is defined in the form of an optimization problem. The optimization problem objective is based on data from I–V curves obtained by manufacturers’ or measured I–V curves. In order to estimate PV panel parameters, the optimization problem is solved by using an evolutionary strategy. The proposed method is tested for different PV panel technologies using data sheets. In this method the I–V curve approximation with two linear and a sigmoid function is proposed. The method for estimating the knee of the I–V curve and maximum power point at any irradiance and temperature is proposed

Effect of reverse cyclic loading on the fracture resistance curve in C(T) specimen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sung Seok, C.; Jin Kim, Y.; Il Weon, J.

1999-01-01

Fracture resistance (J-R) curves, which are used for elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analyses, are known to be dependent on the cyclic loading history. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of reverse cyclic loading on the J-R curves in C(T) specimens. The effect of two parameters was observed on the J-R curves during the reverse cyclic loading. One was the minimum-to-maximum load ratio (R) and the other was the incremental plastic displacement (δ cycle /δ i ), which is related to the amount of crack growth that occurs in a cycle. Fracture resistance tests on C(T) specimens with varying the load ratio and the incremental plastic displacement were performed, and the test results showed that the J-R curves were decreased with decreasing the load ratio and decreasing the incremental plastic displacement. Direct current potential drop (DCPD) method was used for the detection of crack initiation and crack growth in typical laboratory J-R tests. The values of crack initiation J-integral (J I ) and crack initiation displacement (δ i ) were also obtained by using the DCPD method. (orig.)

Comparison of gradient-recalled echo and spin-echo echo-planar imaging MR elastography in staging liver fibrosis. A meta-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yong Seek; Jang, Yu Na; Song, Ji Soo

2018-01-01

To compare the diagnostic performance of gradient-recalled echo-based magnetic resonance elastography (GRE-MRE) and spin-echo echo-planar imaging-based MRE (SE-EPI-MRE) in liver fibrosis staging. A systematic literature search was performed to identify studies involving the performance of MRE for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, the diagnostic odds ratio, and a summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were estimated by using a bivariate random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed between different study characteristics. Twenty-six studies with a total of 3,200 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of GRE-MRE and SE-EPI-MRE did not differ significantly. The area under the summary ROC curve for stage diagnosis of any (F ≥ 1), significant (F ≥ 2), advanced (F ≥ 3), and cirrhosis (F = 4) on GRE-MRE and SE-EPI-MRE were 0.93 versus 0.94, 0.95 versus 0.94, 0.94 versus 0.95, and 0.92 versus 0.93, respectively. Substantial heterogeneity was detected for both sequences. Both GRE and SE-EPI-MRE show high sensitivity and specificity for detection of each stage of liver fibrosis, without significant differences. Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) may be useful for noninvasive evaluation of liver fibrosis in chronic liver disease. (orig.)

FDG-PET/CT in the prediction of pulmonary function improvement in nonspecific interstitial pneumonia. A Pilot Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacquelin, V. [AP-HP, Hosp. Avicenne, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Bobigny (France); Mekinian, A. [AP-HP, Hosp. Saint-Antoine, Department of Internal Medicine and Inflammation-Immunopathology-Biotherapy Department (DHU i2B), Paris (France); Brillet, P.Y. [AP-HP, Hosp. Avicenne, Department of Radiology, Bobigny (France); Univ. Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Bobigny (France); Nunes, H. [AP-HP, Hosp. Avicenne, Department of Pneumology, Bobigny (France); Univ. Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Bobigny (France); Fain, O. [AP-HP, Hosp. Saint-Antoine, Department of Internal Medicine and Inflammation-Immunopathology-Biotherapy Department (DHU i2B), Paris (France); Valeyre, D. [AP-HP, Hosp. Avicenne, Department of Pneumology, Bobigny (France); Univ. Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Bobigny (France); Soussan, M., E-mail: michael.soussan@aphp.fr [AP-HP, Hosp. Avicenne, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Bobigny (France); Univ. Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Bobigny (France)

2016-12-15

Purpose: Our study aimed to analyse the characteristics of nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) using FDG-PET/CT (PET) and to evaluate its ability to predict the therapeutic response. Procedures: Eighteen NSIP patients were included. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}), FDG uptake extent (in percentage of lung volume), high resolution CT scan (HRCT) elementary lesions, and HRCT fibrosis score were recorded. The predictive value of the parameters for lung function improvement was evaluated using logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (n = 13/18). Results: All patients had an increased pulmonary FDG uptake (median SUV{sub max} = 3.1 [2–7.6]), with a median extent of 19% [6–67]. Consolidations, ground-glass opacities, honeycombing and reticulations showed uptake in 90%, 89%, 85% and 76%, respectively. FDG uptake extent was associated with improvement of pulmonary function under treatment (increase in forced vital capacity > 10%, p = 0.03), whereas SUV{sub max} and HRCT fibrosis score were not (p > 0.5). For FDG uptake extent, ROC analysis showed an area under the curve at 0.85 ± 0.11 and sensitivity/specificity was 88%/80% for a threshold fixed at 21%. Conclusions: Increased FDG uptake was observed in all NSIP patients, both in inflammatory and fibrotic HRCT lesions. The quantification of FDG uptake extent might be useful to predict functional improvement under treatment.

MRI differentiation of low-grade from high-grade appendicular chondrosarcoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douis, Hassan; Singh, Leanne; Saifuddin, Asif

2014-01-01

To identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features which differentiate low-grade chondral lesions (atypical cartilaginous tumours/grade 1 chondrosarcoma) from high-grade chondrosarcomas (grade 2, grade 3 and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma) of the major long bones. We identified all patients treated for central atypical cartilaginous tumours and central chondrosarcoma of major long bones (humerus, femur, tibia) over a 13-year period. The MRI studies were assessed for the following features: bone marrow oedema, soft tissue oedema, bone expansion, cortical thickening, cortical destruction, active periostitis, soft tissue mass and tumour length. The MRI-features were compared with the histopathological tumour grading using univariate, multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses. One hundred and seventy-nine tumours were included in this retrospective study. There were 28 atypical cartilaginous tumours, 79 grade 1 chondrosarcomas, 36 grade 2 chondrosarcomas, 13 grade 3 chondrosarcomas and 23 dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that bone expansion (P = 0.001), active periostitis (P = 0.001), soft tissue mass (P < 0.001) and tumour length (P < 0.001) were statistically significant differentiating factors between low-grade and high-grade chondral lesions with an area under the ROC curve of 0.956. On MRI, bone expansion, active periostitis, soft tissue mass and tumour length can reliably differentiate high-grade chondrosarcomas from low-grade chondral lesions of the major long bones. (orig.)

MRI differentiation of low-grade from high-grade appendicular chondrosarcoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Douis, Hassan; Singh, Leanne; Saifuddin, Asif [The Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Trust, Department of Radiology, Stanmore, Middlesex (United Kingdom)

2014-01-15

To identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features which differentiate low-grade chondral lesions (atypical cartilaginous tumours/grade 1 chondrosarcoma) from high-grade chondrosarcomas (grade 2, grade 3 and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma) of the major long bones. We identified all patients treated for central atypical cartilaginous tumours and central chondrosarcoma of major long bones (humerus, femur, tibia) over a 13-year period. The MRI studies were assessed for the following features: bone marrow oedema, soft tissue oedema, bone expansion, cortical thickening, cortical destruction, active periostitis, soft tissue mass and tumour length. The MRI-features were compared with the histopathological tumour grading using univariate, multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses. One hundred and seventy-nine tumours were included in this retrospective study. There were 28 atypical cartilaginous tumours, 79 grade 1 chondrosarcomas, 36 grade 2 chondrosarcomas, 13 grade 3 chondrosarcomas and 23 dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that bone expansion (P = 0.001), active periostitis (P = 0.001), soft tissue mass (P < 0.001) and tumour length (P < 0.001) were statistically significant differentiating factors between low-grade and high-grade chondral lesions with an area under the ROC curve of 0.956. On MRI, bone expansion, active periostitis, soft tissue mass and tumour length can reliably differentiate high-grade chondrosarcomas from low-grade chondral lesions of the major long bones. (orig.)

A preliminary evaluation of the validity of binge-eating disorder defining features in a community-based sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Kelly M; Forney, K Jean; Keel, Pamela K

2016-05-01

Little empirical attention has been paid to the DSM-5 definition of binge-eating disorder (BED), particularly to the associated features of binge episodes. The present study sought to determine how the associated features and undue influence of weight/shape on self-evaluation contribute to evidence of a clinically significant eating disorder. Secondary analyses were conducted on data (N = 80; 76.3% women, 76.3% Caucasian, ages 18-43) collected through an epidemiological study of eating patterns. Descriptive statistics were used to report the sample prevalence of the features, independently and in combination. Correlations and alpha reliability were employed to examine relationships among associated features, distress regarding bingeing, and clinical diagnosis. Regression models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the utility of the features for explaining variance in distress. Internal consistency reliability for indicators was low, and several features demonstrated low or nonsignificant associations with distress and diagnosis. Feeling disgusted/depressed/guilty was the only unique predictor of distress (p = 0.001). For the ROC curves, three features was the best threshold for predicting distress. Results support the need to refine the features to ensure better detection of clinically significant eating pathology for research inclusion and treatment of the illness. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2016; 49:524-528). © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

FDG-PET/CT in the prediction of pulmonary function improvement in nonspecific interstitial pneumonia. A Pilot Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacquelin, V.; Mekinian, A.; Brillet, P.Y.; Nunes, H.; Fain, O.; Valeyre, D.; Soussan, M.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Our study aimed to analyse the characteristics of nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) using FDG-PET/CT (PET) and to evaluate its ability to predict the therapeutic response. Procedures: Eighteen NSIP patients were included. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max ), FDG uptake extent (in percentage of lung volume), high resolution CT scan (HRCT) elementary lesions, and HRCT fibrosis score were recorded. The predictive value of the parameters for lung function improvement was evaluated using logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (n = 13/18). Results: All patients had an increased pulmonary FDG uptake (median SUV max = 3.1 [2–7.6]), with a median extent of 19% [6–67]. Consolidations, ground-glass opacities, honeycombing and reticulations showed uptake in 90%, 89%, 85% and 76%, respectively. FDG uptake extent was associated with improvement of pulmonary function under treatment (increase in forced vital capacity > 10%, p = 0.03), whereas SUV max and HRCT fibrosis score were not (p > 0.5). For FDG uptake extent, ROC analysis showed an area under the curve at 0.85 ± 0.11 and sensitivity/specificity was 88%/80% for a threshold fixed at 21%. Conclusions: Increased FDG uptake was observed in all NSIP patients, both in inflammatory and fibrotic HRCT lesions. The quantification of FDG uptake extent might be useful to predict functional improvement under treatment.

Predicting Voice Disorder Status From Smoothed Measures of Cepstral Peak Prominence Using Praat and Analysis of Dysphonia in Speech and Voice (ADSV).

Science.gov (United States)

Sauder, Cara; Bretl, Michelle; Eadie, Tanya

2017-09-01

The purposes of this study were to (1) determine and compare the diagnostic accuracy of a single acoustic measure, smoothed cepstral peak prominence (CPPS), to predict voice disorder status from connected speech samples using two software systems: Analysis of Dysphonia in Speech and Voice (ADSV) and Praat; and (2) to determine the relationship between measures of CPPS generated from these programs. This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. Measures of CPPS were obtained from connected speech recordings of 100 subjects with voice disorders and 70 nondysphonic subjects without vocal complaints using commercially available ADSV and freely downloadable Praat software programs. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to evaluate and compare the diagnostic accuracy of CPPS measures. Relationships between CPPS measures from the programs were determined. Results showed acceptable overall accuracy rates (75% accuracy, ADSV; 82% accuracy, Praat) and area under the ROC curves (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, ADSV; AUC = 0.91, Praat) for predicting voice disorder status, with slight differences in sensitivity and specificity. CPPS measures derived from Praat were uniquely predictive of disorder status above and beyond CPPS measures from ADSV (χ 2 (1) = 40.71, P disorder status using either program. Clinicians may consider using CPPS to complement clinical voice evaluation and screening protocols. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dual Smarandache Curves and Smarandache Ruled Surfaces

OpenAIRE

Tanju KAHRAMAN; Mehmet ÖNDER; H. Hüseyin UGURLU

2013-01-01

In this paper, by considering dual geodesic trihedron (dual Darboux frame) we define dual Smarandache curves lying fully on dual unit sphere S^2 and corresponding to ruled surfaces. We obtain the relationships between the elements of curvature of dual spherical curve (ruled surface) x(s) and its dual Smarandache curve (Smarandache ruled surface) x1(s) and we give an example for dual Smarandache curves of a dual spherical curve.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guyot Patricia

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. Methods We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. Results The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. Conclusion The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

The writhe of open and closed curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berger, Mitchell A; Prior, Chris

2006-01-01

Twist and writhe measure basic geometric properties of a ribbon or tube. While these measures have applications in molecular biology, materials science, fluid mechanics and astrophysics, they are under-utilized because they are often considered difficult to compute. In addition, many applications involve curves with endpoints (open curves); but for these curves the definition of writhe can be ambiguous. This paper provides simple expressions for the writhe of closed curves, and provides a new definition of writhe for open curves. The open curve definition is especially appropriate when the curve is anchored at endpoints on a plane or stretches between two parallel planes. This definition can be especially useful for magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere, and for isotropic rods with ends fixed to a plane

F(α) curves: Experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glazier, J.A.; Gunaratne, G.; Libchaber, A.

1988-01-01

We study the transition to chaos at the golden and silver means for forced Rayleigh-Benard (RB) convection in mercury. We present f(α) curves below, at, and above the transition, and provide comparisons to the curves calculated for the one-dimensional circle map. We find good agreement at both the golden and silver means. This confirms our earlier observation that for low amplitude forcing, forced RB convection is well described by the one-dimensional circle map and indicates that the f(α) curve is a good measure of the approach to criticality. For selected subcritical experimental data sets we calculate the degree of subcriticality. We also present both experimental and calculated results for f(α) in the presence of a third frequency. Again we obtain agreement: The presence of random noise or a third frequency narrows the right-hand (negative q) side of the f(α) curve. Subcriticality results in symmetrically narrowed curves. We can also distinguish these cases by examining the power spectra and Poincare sections of the time series

Investigation of learning and experience curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thornton, J.; Edesess, M.

1980-04-01

The applicability of learning and experience curves for predicting future costs of solar technologies is assessed, and the major test case is the production economics of heliostats. Alternative methods for estimating cost reductions in systems manufacture are discussed, and procedures for using learning and experience curves to predict costs are outlined. Because adequate production data often do not exist, production histories of analogous products/processes are analyzed and learning and aggregated cost curves for these surrogates estimated. If the surrogate learning curves apply, they can be used to estimate solar technology costs. The steps involved in generating these cost estimates are given. Second-generation glass-steel and inflated-bubble heliostat design concepts, developed by MDAC and GE, respectively, are described; a costing scenario for 25,000 units/yr is detailed; surrogates for cost analysis are chosen; learning and aggregate cost curves are estimated; and aggregate cost curves for the GE and MDAC designs are estimated. However, an approach that combines a neoclassical production function with a learning-by-doing hypothesis is needed to yield a cost relation compatible with the historical learning curve and the traditional cost function of economic theory.

Maturation curves of sweet sorghum genotypes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renan Silva e Souza

2016-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Sweet sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L. Moench] stands out as a complementary crop to sugarcane Saccharum spp. for the production of ethanol, since it has juicy stems with directly fermentable sugars. Due to this fact, there is a need for the analysis of sweet sorghum properties in order to meet the agro-industry demand. This work aimed to develop and study the maturation curves of seven sweet sorghum cultivars in ten harvest dates. The results showed a significant difference between cultivars and harvest dates for all parameters analysed (p≤0.01. Regarding the sugar content, the cultivars BRS508, XBWS80147 and CMSX629 showed the highest means for the total reducing sugars (TRS and recoverable sugar (RS. In the production of ethanol per tonne of biomass (EP, the cultivars BRS508 and CMSX629 presented the best results.

Empirical solution of Green-Ampt equation using soil conservation service - curve number values

Science.gov (United States)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

2012-09-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular widely used rainfall-runoff model for quantifying the total stream-flow volume generated by storm rainfall, but its application is not appropriate for sub-daily resolutions. In order to overcome this drawback, the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration equation is considered and an empirical solution is proposed and evaluated. The procedure, named CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aims to calibrate the Green-Ampt model parameters distributing in time the global information provided by the SCS-CN method. The proposed procedure is evaluated by analysing observed rainfall-runoff events; results show that CN4GA seems to provide better agreement with the observed hydrographs respect to the classic SCS-CN method.

Atmospheric emissions and economic growth. Environmental Kuznets Curve and Kyoto protocol; Emisiones atmosfericas y crecimiento economico en Espana. La Curve de Kuznets ambiental y el protocolo de Kyoto

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roca Jusmet, J.; Padilla Rosa, E.

2004-07-01

From the beginning of the 90s the analysis of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressures has been influenced by the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis or inverted-U shaped relationship between environmental pressure and per capita income. Following this hypothesis, once achieved certain income level, more economic growth is followed by environmental quality improvement. In this paper, we analyse and discuss the theories that support this hypothesis as well as the empirical evidence on this subject. Further on we analyse the relationship between per capita income and the main environmental pollutants for the case does not support the hypothesis. The empirical evidence shows that economic growth, by itself, does not entail a pollution reduction. (Author) 35 refs.

Dissolution glow curve in LLD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haverkamp, U.; Wiezorek, C.; Poetter, R.

1990-01-01

Lyoluminescence dosimetry is based upon light emission during dissolution of previously irradiated dosimetric materials. The lyoluminescence signal is expressed in the dissolution glow curve. These curves begin, depending on the dissolution system, with a high peak followed by an exponentially decreasing intensity. System parameters that influence the graph of the dissolution glow curve, are, for example, injection speed, temperature and pH value of the solution and the design of the dissolution cell. The initial peak does not significantly correlate with the absorbed dose, it is mainly an effect of the injection. The decay of the curve consists of two exponential components: one fast and one slow. The components depend on the absorbed dose and the dosimetric materials used. In particular, the slow component correlates with the absorbed dose. In contrast to the fast component the argument of the exponential function of the slow component is independent of the dosimetric materials investigated: trehalose, glucose and mannitol. The maximum value, following the peak of the curve, and the integral light output are a measure of the absorbed dose. The reason for the different light outputs of various dosimetric materials after irradiation with the same dose is the differing solubility. The character of the dissolution glow curves is the same following irradiation with photons, electrons or neutrons. (author)

An Approach of Estimating Individual Growth Curves for Young Thoroughbred Horses Based on Their Birthdays

Science.gov (United States)

ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter denoting the birthday information was added for the modeling of the individual growth curves for each horse by shifting the meeting points in the compensatory growth periods. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of Thoroughbred colts and fillies, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements of both sexes were used in the analyses. The results of predicted error difference and Akaike Information Criterion showed that the individual growth curves using birthday information better fit to the body weight and withers height data than not using them. The individual growth curve for each horse would be a useful tool for the feeding managements of young Japanese Thoroughbreds in compensatory growth periods. PMID:25013356

Development of the curve of Spee.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Steven D; Caspersen, Matthew; Hardinger, Rachel R; Franciscus, Robert G; Aquilino, Steven A; Southard, Thomas E

2008-09-01

Ferdinand Graf von Spee is credited with characterizing human occlusal curvature viewed in the sagittal plane. This naturally occurring phenomenon has clinical importance in orthodontics and restorative dentistry, yet we have little understanding of when, how, or why it develops. The purpose of this study was to expand our understanding by examining the development of the curve of Spee longitudinally in a sample of untreated subjects with normal occlusion from the deciduous dentition to adulthood. Records of 16 male and 17 female subjects from the Iowa Facial Growth Study were selected and examined. The depth of the curve of Spee was measured on their study models at 7 time points from ages 4 (deciduous dentition) to 26 (adult dentition) years. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare changes in the curve of Spee depth between time points. For each subject, the relative eruption of the mandibular teeth was measured from corresponding cephalometric radiographs, and its contribution to the developing curve of Spee was ascertained. In the deciduous dentition, the curve of Spee is minimal. At mean ages of 4.05 and 5.27 years, the average curve of Spee depths are 0.24 and 0.25 mm, respectively. With change to the transitional dentition, corresponding to the eruption of the mandibular permanent first molars and central incisors (mean age, 6.91 years), the curve of Spee depth increases significantly (P < 0.0001) to a mean maximum depth of 1.32 mm. The curve of Spee then remains essentially unchanged until eruption of the second molars (mean age, 12.38 years), when the depth increases (P < 0.0001) to a mean maximum depth of 2.17 mm. In the adolescent dentition (mean age, 16.21 years), the depth decreases slightly (P = 0.0009) to a mean maximum depth of 1.98 mm, and, in the adult dentition (mean age 26.98 years), the curve remains unchanged (P = 0.66), with a mean maximum depth of 2.02 mm. No significant differences in curve of Spee development were found between

GLOBAL AND STRICT CURVE FITTING METHOD

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nakajima, Y.; Mori, S.

2004-01-01

To find a global and smooth curve fitting, cubic B­Spline method and gathering­ line methods are investigated. When segmenting and recognizing a contour curve of character shape, some global method is required. If we want to connect contour curves around a singular point like crossing points,

Simulating Supernova Light Curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Even, Wesley Paul [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dolence, Joshua C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-05

This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth’s atmosphere.

Simulating Supernova Light Curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Even, Wesley Paul; Dolence, Joshua C.

2016-01-01

This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth's atmosphere.

Use of gamma spectroscopy in activation analysis; Utilisation de la spectrographie gamma dans l'analyse par activation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leveque, [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France).Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1959-07-01

Brief review of the principles of activation analysis: calculation of activities, decay curves, {beta} absorption curves, examples of application. - Principle and description of the {gamma} spectrograph. - Practical utilisation of the {gamma} spectrograph: analysis by activation, analysis by {beta} - x fluorescence. - Sensitivity limit of the method and precision of the measurements. - Possible improvements to the method: {gamma} spectroscopy with elimination of the Compton effect. (author) [French] Bref rappel des principes de l'analyse par activation: calcul des activites, courbes de decroissance, courbes d'absorption {beta}, exemples d'utilisation. - Principe et description du spectrographe {gamma}. - Utilisation pratique de la spectrographie {gamma}: analyse par activation, analyse par fluorescence {beta} - x. - Limite de sensibilite de la methode et precision des mesures. - Ameliorations possibles de la methode: spectrographe {gamma} avec elimination de l'effet Compton. (auteur)

East London Modified-Broset as Decision-Making Tool to Predict Seclusion in Psychiatric Intensive Care Units

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felice Loi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Seclusion is a last resort intervention for management of aggressive behavior in psychiatric settings. There is no current objective and practical decision-making instrument for seclusion use on psychiatric wards. Our aim was to test the predictive and discriminatory characteristics of the East London Modified-Broset (ELMB, to delineate its decision-making profile for seclusion of adult psychiatric patients, and second to benchmark it against the psychometric properties of the Broset Violence Checklist (BVC. ELMB, an 8-item modified version of the 6-item BVC, was retrospectively employed to evaluate the seclusion decision-making process on two Psychiatric Intensive Care Units (patients n = 201; incidents n = 2,187. Data analyses were carried out using multivariate regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curves. Predictors of seclusion were: physical violence toward staff/patients OR = 24.2; non-compliance with PRN (pro re nata medications OR = 9.8; and damage to hospital property OR = 2.9. ROC analyses indicated that ELMB was significantly more accurate that BVC, with higher sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio. Results were similar across gender. The ELMB is a sensitive and specific instrument that can be used to guide the decision-making process when implementing seclusion.

East London Modified-Broset as Decision-Making Tool to Predict Seclusion in Psychiatric Intensive Care Units.

Science.gov (United States)

Loi, Felice; Marlowe, Karl

2017-01-01

Seclusion is a last resort intervention for management of aggressive behavior in psychiatric settings. There is no current objective and practical decision-making instrument for seclusion use on psychiatric wards. Our aim was to test the predictive and discriminatory characteristics of the East London Modified-Broset (ELMB), to delineate its decision-making profile for seclusion of adult psychiatric patients, and second to benchmark it against the psychometric properties of the Broset Violence Checklist (BVC). ELMB, an 8-item modified version of the 6-item BVC, was retrospectively employed to evaluate the seclusion decision-making process on two Psychiatric Intensive Care Units (patients n  = 201; incidents n  = 2,187). Data analyses were carried out using multivariate regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Predictors of seclusion were: physical violence toward staff/patients OR = 24.2; non-compliance with PRN (pro re nata) medications OR = 9.8; and damage to hospital property OR = 2.9. ROC analyses indicated that ELMB was significantly more accurate that BVC, with higher sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio. Results were similar across gender. The ELMB is a sensitive and specific instrument that can be used to guide the decision-making process when implementing seclusion.

Screening for distant metastases in head and neck cancer patients by chest CT or whole body FDG-PET: A prospective multicenter trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senft, Asaf; Bree, Remco de; Hoekstra, Otto S.; Kuik, Dirk J.; Golding, Richard P.; Oyen, Wim J.G.; Pruim, Jan; Hoogen, Frank J. van den; Roodenburg, Jan L.N.; Leemans, C. Rene

2008-01-01

Background and purpose: The aim of the study was to define the added value of whole body FDG-PET in screening for distant metastases in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and risk factors. Materials and methods: In a multi-center prospective study between 1998 and 2003, 145 consecutive HNSCC patients with risk factors for distant metastases underwent chest CT and whole body FDG-PET for screening of distant metastases. The data of 92 evaluable patients who developed distant metastases or who had a follow-up of at least 12 months were analyzed. Besides their performance in clinical practice, the operational characteristics of PET and CT using ROC analyses were investigated. Results: Pretreatment screening identified distant metastases in 19 patients (21%). FDG-PET had a higher sensitivity (53% vs. 37%) and positive predictive value (80% vs. 75%) than CT. The combination of CT and FDG-PET had the highest sensitivity (63%). The ROC analyses of the five point ordinal scales revealed that the 'area under the curve' (AUC) of FDG-PET was significantly higher as compared to CT. Conclusion: In HNSCC patients with risk factors, pretreatment screening for distant metastases by chest CT is improved by FDG-PET

Association Between Aerobic Fitness And High Blood Pressure in Adolescents in Brazil: Evidence for Criterion-Referenced Cut-Points.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Diego Augusto; Tremblay, Mark; Pelegrini, Andreia; Dos Santos Silva, Roberto Jeronimo; Cabral de Oliveira, Antonio Cesar; Petroski, Edio Luiz

2016-05-01

Criterion-referenced cut-points for health-related fitness measures are lacking. This study aimed to determine the associations between aerobic fitness and high blood pressure levels (HBP) to determine the cut-points that best predict HBP among adolescents. This cross-sectional school-based study with sample of 875 adolescents aged 14-19 years was conducted in southern Brazil. Aerobic fitness was assessed using the modified Canadian Aerobic Fitness Test (mCAFT). Systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured by the oscillometric method with a digital sphygmomanometer. Analyses controlled for sociodemographic variables, physical activity, body mass and biological maturation. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated that mCAFT measures could discriminate HBP in both sexes (female: AUC = 0.70; male: AUC = 0.63). The cut-points with the best discriminatory power for HBP were 32 mL·kg-1·min-1 for females and 40 mL·kg-1·min-1 for males. Females (OR = 8.4; 95% CI: 2.1, 33.7) and males (OR: 2.5; CI 95%: 1.2, 5.2) with low aerobic fitness levels were more likely to have HBP. mCAFT measures are inversely associated with BP and cut-points from ROC analyses have good discriminatory power for HBP.

Application of impulse oscillometry and bronchial dilation test for analysis in patients with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yueyue; Chen, Yang; Wang, Ping

2015-01-01

Impulse oscillometry (IOS) is a good method for measuring airway resistance. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic contribution of IOS combined with bronchial dilation test (BDT) when distinguishing between patients with asthma and those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 870 were enrolled in the study including 561 patients with asthma, 100 patients with COPD and 209 patients with chronic coughing or normal subjects. All the participants underwent routine pulmonary function tests, IOS and BDT examination. And IOS examination was before and after BDT. IOS parameters (R5, R20, R25, R35, X5, X20, X25, X35, Fres, Zrs & RP) and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) were recorded. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic ability to differentiate asthma and COPD. The discriminative power of the various parameters studied was determined by means of ROC curves: the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. The X5, X20, X25, X35, Fres, Zrs and Rp correlated better with COPD. In particular, X5, Fres and X25 have been found to be significantly correlated with COPD. The diagnostic efficiency of X5, Fres and X25 when diagnosis COPD, expressed by ROC curve parameters, was as follows: AUC (0.725, 0.730, 0.724), sensitivity (67%, 77%, 83%) and specificity (68%, 65%, 58%), respectively. The diagnostic efficiency of Zrs, R5 and X35 when diagnosis asthma, expressed by ROC curve parameters, was as follows: AUC (0.721, 0.710, 0.695), sensitivity (62%, 72%, 53%) and specificity (72%, 61%, 76%), respectively. Our findings show, that X5, X25 and Fres may be useful for predictions and evaluations for COPD. And R5, X35 and Zrs may provide useful IOS parameters for asthma. IOS combined BDT could be useful diagnostic and differential diagnosis between asthma and COPD.

Evaluation of the Luciferase Assay-Based In Vitro Elicitation Test for Serum IgE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryosuke Nakamura

2012-01-01

Results: The area under the ROC curves was highest in the EXiLE test (0.977, followed by CAP-FEIA (0.926 and degranulation (0.810. At an optimal cutoff range (1.648-1.876 calculated from the ROC curve of the EXiLE test, sensitivity and specificity were 0.944 and 0.917, respectively. A 95% positive predictive value was given at a cutoff level of 2.054 (fold increase in luciferase expression by logistic regression analysis. Conclusions: In contrast to in vivo tests, the EXiLE test appears to be a useful tool in diagnosing patients suspected of having IgE-dependent EW allergy without the risk of severe systemic reactions.

Evaluation of CT in hepatocellular carcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakao, Norio; Miura, Yukio; Ohnishi, Mitsunori; Kamikon-ya, Norihiko; Sakamoto, Yoshisato; Miura, Takashi; Sakamoto, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Yoshio

1985-06-01

In order to evaluate the diagnostic ability of CT in hepatocellular carcinoma, four kinds of CT images were comparatively studied by the accuracy and ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis. As a result, it was clarified that CT images were evaluated more objectively by ROC curve analysis than by accuracy. The diagnostic ability of existence and differentiation of tumor in the liver were higher in order of plain CT, contrast enhanced CT (CECT), bolus CT and CT arteriography (CTA). Therefore, in an usual CT examination intended to make differential diagnosis in space occupying liver disease, bolus CT seems to be indispensable, and also CTA is essential where diagnosis is difficult even by bolus CT.

Comparison of simplified quantitative analyses of FDG uptake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graham, M.M.; Peterson, L.M.; Hayward, R.M.

2000-01-01

Quantitative analysis of [ 18 F]-fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG) uptake is important in oncologic positron emission tomography (PET) studies to be able to set an objective threshold in determining if a tissue is malignant or benign, in assessing response to therapy, and in attempting to predict the aggressiveness of an individual tumor. The most common method used today for simple, clinical quantitation is standardized uptake value (SUV). SUV is normalized for body weight. Other potential normalization factors are lean body mass (LBM) or body surface area (BSA). More complex quantitation schemes include simplified kinetic analysis (SKA), Patlak graphical analysis (PGA), and parameter optimization of the complete kinetic model to determine FDG metabolic rate (FDGMR). These various methods were compared in a group of 40 patients with colon cancer metastatic to the liver. The methods were assessed by (1) correlation with FDGMR, (2) ability to predict survival using Kaplan-Meier plots, and (3) area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for distinguishing between tumor and normal liver. The best normalization scheme appears to be BSA with minor differences depending on the specific formula used to calculate BSA. Overall, PGA is the best predictor of outcome and best discriminator between normal tissue and tumor. SKA is almost as good. In conventional PET imaging it is worthwhile to normalize SUV using BSA. If a single blood sample is available, it is possible to use the SKA method, which is distinctly better. If more than one image is available, along with at least one blood sample, PGA is feasible and should produce the most accurate results

Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Perspective of Sustainable Development in Indonesia

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Galuh Nuansa Citrasmara

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Sustainable development with three main pillars, namely environmental, economic, and social, is the concept of country’s development to achieve inclusive economic growth, good environmental quality, and improvement of people's welfare. However, the dominance of economic factors cause various environmental problem. This phenomenon occurs in most of developing countries, including in Indonesia. The relationship between economic activity and environmental quality has been widely discussed and empirically tested by scholars. This descriptive research analysed the hypothesis called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC from a perspective of sustainable development in Indonesia. EKC hypothesis illustrates the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation forming an inverted U-curve, indicating that at the beginning of development, environmental quality will decrease along with increasing economic growth, and then reached a certain point the environmental quality will gradually improve. In this paper will be discussed how the relationship between environmental quality and economic growth in Indonesia was investigated. The preliminary results show that most of the empirical studies use the conventional approach, in which the CO2 emission used as the proxy of environmental degradation. The existence of inverted U-curve is also inconclusive. Therefore, the extension research on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Indonesia using the EKC hypothesis is required.

Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Perspective of Sustainable Development in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Nuansa, Citrasmara Galuh; Widodo, Wahyu

2018-02-01

Sustainable development with three main pillars, namely environmental, economic, and social, is the concept of country's development to achieve inclusive economic growth, good environmental quality, and improvement of people's welfare. However, the dominance of economic factors cause various environmental problem. This phenomenon occurs in most of developing countries, including in Indonesia. The relationship between economic activity and environmental quality has been widely discussed and empirically tested by scholars. This descriptive research analysed the hypothesis called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) from a perspective of sustainable development in Indonesia. EKC hypothesis illustrates the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation forming an inverted U-curve, indicating that at the beginning of development, environmental quality will decrease along with increasing economic growth, and then reached a certain point the environmental quality will gradually improve. In this paper will be discussed how the relationship between environmental quality and economic growth in Indonesia was investigated. The preliminary results show that most of the empirical studies use the conventional approach, in which the CO2 emission used as the proxy of environmental degradation. The existence of inverted U-curve is also inconclusive. Therefore, the extension research on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Indonesia using the EKC hypothesis is required.

Trigonometric Characterization of Some Plane Curves

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

IAS Admin

(Figure 1). A relation between tan θ and tanψ gives the trigonometric equation of the family of curves. In this article, trigonometric equations of some known plane curves are deduced and it is shown that these equations reveal some geometric characteristics of the families of the curves under consideration. In Section 2,.

''Textural analysis of multiparametric MRI detects transition zone prostate cancer''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sidhu, Harbir S.; Johnston, Edward W.; Taylor, Stuart A.; Halligan, Steve [Centre for Medical Imaging, University College London, London (United Kingdom); University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London (United Kingdom); Benigno, Salvatore; Dikaios, Nikos [Centre for Medical Imaging, University College London, London (United Kingdom); Ganeshan, Balaji [Institute of Nuclear Medicine, University College London, University College Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Allen, Clare; Kirkham, Alex [University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London (United Kingdom); Groves, Ashley M. [University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London (United Kingdom); Institute of Nuclear Medicine, University College London, University College Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Ahmed, Hashim U.; Emberton, Mark [University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London (United Kingdom); University College London, Research Department of Urology, London (United Kingdom); Punwani, Shonit [Centre for Medical Imaging, University College London, London (United Kingdom); University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London (United Kingdom); Centre for Medical Imaging, University College London and University College London Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London (United Kingdom)

2017-06-15

To evaluate multiparametric-MRI (mpMRI) derived histogram textural-analysis parameters for detection of transition zone (TZ) prostatic tumour. Sixty-seven consecutive men with suspected prostate cancer underwent 1.5T mpMRI prior to template-mapping-biopsy (TPM). Twenty-six men had 'significant' TZ tumour. Two radiologists in consensus matched TPM to the single axial slice best depicting tumour, or largest TZ diameter for those with benign histology, to define single-slice whole TZ-regions-of-interest (ROIs). Textural-parameter differences between single-slice whole TZ-ROI containing significant tumour versus benign/insignificant tumour were analysed using Mann Whitney U test. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed by receiver operating characteristic area under curve (ROC-AUC) analysis cross-validated with leave-one-out (LOO) analysis. ADC kurtosis was significantly lower (p < 0.001) in TZ containing significant tumour with ROC-AUC 0.80 (LOO-AUC 0.78); the difference became non-significant following exclusion of significant tumour from single-slice whole TZ-ROI (p = 0.23). T1-entropy was significantly lower (p = 0.004) in TZ containing significant tumour with ROC-AUC 0.70 (LOO-AUC 0.66) and was unaffected by excluding significant tumour from TZ-ROI (p = 0.004). Combining these parameters yielded ROC-AUC 0.86 (LOO-AUC 0.83). Textural features of the whole prostate TZ can discriminate significant prostatic cancer through reduced kurtosis of the ADC-histogram where significant tumour is included in TZ-ROI and reduced T1 entropy independent of tumour inclusion. (orig.)

Can a toxin gene NAAT be used to predict toxin EIA and the severity of Clostridium difficile infection?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark I. Garvey

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosis of C. difficile infection (CDI is controversial because of the many laboratory methods available and their lack of ability to distinguish between carriage, mild or severe disease. Here we describe whether a low C. difficile toxin B nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT cycle threshold (CT can predict toxin EIA, CDI severity and mortality. Methods A three-stage algorithm was employed for CDI testing, comprising a screening test for glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH, followed by a NAAT, then a toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA. All diarrhoeal samples positive for GDH and NAAT between 2012 and 2016 were analysed. The performance of the NAAT CT value as a classifier of toxin EIA outcome was analysed using a ROC curve; patient mortality was compared to CTs and toxin EIA via linear regression models. Results A CT value ≤26 was associated with ≥72% toxin EIA positivity; applying a logistic regression model we demonstrated an association between low CT values and toxin EIA positivity. A CT value of ≤26 was significantly associated (p = 0.0262 with increased one month mortality, severe cases of CDI or failure of first line treatment. The ROC curve probabilities demonstrated a CT cut off value of 26.6. Discussions Here we demonstrate that a CT ≤26 indicates more severe CDI and is associated with higher mortality. Samples with a low CT value are often toxin EIA positive, questioning the need for this additional EIA test. Conclusions A CT ≤26 could be used to assess the potential for severity of CDI and guide patient treatment.

Biomarkers in Trypanosoma cruzi-infected and uninfected individuals with varying severity of cardiomyopathy in Santa Cruz, Bolivia.

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, Emi E; Sherbuk, Jacqueline E; Clark, Eva H; Marks, Morgan A; Gandarilla, Omar; Galdos-Cardenas, Gerson; Vasquez-Villar, Angel; Choi, Jeong; Crawford, Thomas C; Do, Rose Q; Q, Rose; Fernandez, Antonio B; Colanzi, Rony; Flores-Franco, Jorge Luis; Gilman, Robert H; Bern, Caryn

2014-10-01

Twenty to thirty percent of persons with Trypanosoma cruzi infection eventually develop cardiomyopathy. If an early indicator were to be identified and validated in longitudinal studies, this could enable treatment to be prioritized for those at highest risk. We evaluated cardiac and extracellular matrix remodeling markers across cardiac stages in T. cruzi infected (Tc+) and uninfected (Tc-) individuals. Participants were recruited in a public hospital in Santa Cruz, Bolivia and assigned cardiac severity stages by electrocardiogram and echocardiogram. BNP, NTproBNP, CKMB, troponin I, MMP-2, MMP-9, TIMP-1, TIMP-2, TGFb1, and TGFb2 were measured in specimens from 265 individuals using multiplex bead systems. Biomarker levels were compared between Tc+ and Tc- groups, and across cardiac stages. Receivers operating characteristic (ROC) curves were created; for markers with area under curve>0.60, logistic regression was performed. Analyses stratified by cardiac stage showed no significant differences in biomarker levels by Tc infection status. Among Tc+ individuals, those with cardiac insufficiency had higher levels of BNP, NTproBNP, troponin I, MMP-2, TIMP-1, and TIMP-2 than those with normal ejection fraction and left ventricular diameter. No individual marker distinguished between the two earliest Tc+ stages, but in ROC-based analyses, MMP-2/MMP-9 ratio was significantly higher in those with than those without ECG abnormalities. BNP, NTproBNP, troponin I, MMP-2, TIMP-1, and TIMP-2 levels rose with increasing severity stage but did not distinguish between Chagas cardiomyopathy and other cardiomyopathies. Among Tc+ individuals without cardiac insufficiency, only the MMP-2/MMP-9 ratio differed between those with and without ECG changes.