WorldWideScience

Sample records for river shoreline scenarios

  1. Sand spit and shoreline dynamics near Terekhol river mouth, Goa, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rajasekaran, C.; Jayakumar, S.; Gowthaman, R.; Jishad, M.; Yadhunath, E.M.; Pednekar, P.S.

    Evolution of shoreline and sand spit at the mouth of the Terekhol River, near Keri beach, located in the Indian state of Goa has been investigated From the analysis of the data collected, the shoreline oscillation (accretion & erosion) is seasonal...

  2. Shoreline changes in and around the Thubon River mouth, Central Vietnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mau, L.D.; Nayak, G.N.; SanilKumar, V.

    Application of GENESIS model (GENEralized model for Simulating Shoreline change) for studying the shoreline change in and around the Thubon River Mouth, Central Vietnam is presented in this paper The input parameters used are the near shore wave...

  3. Quebec region's shoreline segmentation in the St. Lawrence River : response tool for oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laforest, S.; Martin, V.

    2004-01-01

    Environment Canada, the Canadian Coast Guard, and the Eastern Canada Response Corporation are developing and refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools have also been created using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. The pre-spill databases can be used for planning shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system was performed by Eastern Canada Response Corporation during an aerial survey where shoreline was segmented into digitized information. The cartography of segmentation covers the fluvial part of the St. Lawrence River. The oil spill-oriented database includes geomorphologic information from the supratidal to the lower intertidal zones. It also includes some statistical information and other requirements for cleanup operations. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 3 figs

  4. Investigation of groundwater seepage from the Hanford shoreline of the Columbia River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCormack, W.D.; Carlile, J.M.V.

    1984-11-01

    Groundwater discharges to the Columbia River are evaluated by the Hanford Environmental Surveillance and Groundwater Surveillance Programs via monitoring of the Columbia River and Hanford groundwater. Both programs concluded that Hanford groundwater has not adversely affected Columbia River water quality. This report supplements the above programs by investigating the general characteristics of groundwater entering the Columbia River from the Hanford Site. Specific objectives of the investigation were to identify general shoreline areas where Hanford-related materials were entering the river, and to evaluate qualitatively the physical characteristics and relative magnitudes of those discharges. The study was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved visual inspection of Columbia River shoreline, within the Hanford Site, for indications of groundwater seepage. As a result of that inspection, 115 springs suspected of discharging groundwater were recorded. During Phase 2, water samples were collected from these springs and analyzed for Hanford-related materials known to be present in the groundwater. The specific materials used as indicators for the majority of samples were tritium or uranium and nitrate. The magnitude and distribution of concentrations measured in the spring samples were consistent with concentrations of these materials measured in groundwater near the sampled spring locations. Water samples were also collected from the Columbia River to investigate the localized effects of groundwater discharges occurring above and below river level. These samples were collected within 2 to 4 m of the Hanford shoreline and analyzed for tritium, nitrate, and uranium. Elevated concentrations were measured in river samples collected near areas where groundwater and spring concentrations were elevated. All concentrations were below applicable DOE Concentration Guides. 8 references, 6 figures, 7 tables

  5. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Hudson River: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for the Hudson River, classified according to the Environmental...

  6. Recent Niger Delta shoreline response to Niger River hydrology: Conflict between forces of Nature and Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Asiwaju-Bello, Yinusa Ayodele; Anifowose, Adeleye Yekini Biodun

    2018-03-01

    The Niger River Delta is a prolific hydrocarbon province and a mega-delta of economic and environmental relevance. To understand patterns of its recent shoreline evolution (1923-2013) in response to the Niger River hydrology, and establish the role played by forces of Nature and Human, available topographic and satellite remote sensing data, combined with hydro-climatic (rainfall and runoff) data were analyzed. Results indicate that the entire delta coastline dramatically receded: 82% of the >400 km-long coast retreated, during the period 1950-1987; and 69% between 2007 and 2012. Prior to 1950, there was a continuation of seaward advancement along 53-74% of the delta coast. The 1950-1987 shoreline recession coincided with occurrences of two major events in the Niger River basin; these are downward trends in hydro-climatic conditions (the great droughts of the 1970s-1980s), and dam construction on the Lower Niger River at Kainji (1964-1968). The 2007-2012 event corresponded with the extensive channel dredging during 2009-2012 in the Lower Niger River from the coastal town of Warri in the south to Baro in the north. Remarkably, the largest net shoreline advancement recorded in 74% of the entire delta area occurred within a year (2012-2013), which we link to increased sediment supply to the coast caused by the '2012' floods, adjudged the worst floods in the entire Niger River Basin in the last few decades. With both anthropogenic and environmental factors inducing delta evolution, only innovative river and coastal management can determine the fortune of the future coastal development of the Niger Delta.

  7. Radiological survey of shoreline vegetation from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River, 1990--1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonio, E.J.; Poston, T.M.; Rickard, W.H. Jr.

    1993-09-01

    A great deal of interest exists concerning the seepage of radiologically contaminated groundwater into the Columbia River where it borders the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site (Hanford Reach). Areas of particular interest include the 100-N Area, the Old Hanford Townsite, and the 300 Area springs. While the radiological character of the seeps and springs along the Hanford Site shoreline has been studied, less attention has been given to characterizing the radionuclides that may be present in shoreline vegetation. The objective of this study was to characterize radionuclide concentrations in shoreline plants along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River that were usable by humans for food or other purposes. Vegetation in two areas was found to have elevated levels of radionuclides. Those areas were the 100-N Area and the Old Hanford Townsite. There was also some indication of uranium accumulation in milfoil and onions collected from the 300 Area. Tritium was elevated above background in all areas; 60 Co and 9O Sr were found in highest concentrations in vegetation from the 100-N Area. Technetium-99 was found in 2 of 12 plants collected from the Old Hanford Townsite and 1 of 10 samples collected upstream from the Vernita Bridge. The concentrations of 137 Cs, 238 Pu, 239,240 Pu, and isotopes of uranium were just above background in all three areas (100-N Area, Old Hanford Townsite, and 300 Area)

  8. Radiological survey of shoreline vegetation from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River, 1990--1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, E.J.; Poston, T.M.; Rickard, W.H. Jr.

    1993-09-01

    A great deal of interest exists concerning the seepage of radiologically contaminated groundwater into the Columbia River where it borders the US Department of Energy`s Hanford Site (Hanford Reach). Areas of particular interest include the 100-N Area, the Old Hanford Townsite, and the 300 Area springs. While the radiological character of the seeps and springs along the Hanford Site shoreline has been studied, less attention has been given to characterizing the radionuclides that may be present in shoreline vegetation. The objective of this study was to characterize radionuclide concentrations in shoreline plants along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River that were usable by humans for food or other purposes. Vegetation in two areas was found to have elevated levels of radionuclides. Those areas were the 100-N Area and the Old Hanford Townsite. There was also some indication of uranium accumulation in milfoil and onions collected from the 300 Area. Tritium was elevated above background in all areas; {sup 60}Co and {sup 9O}Sr were found in highest concentrations in vegetation from the 100-N Area. Technetium-99 was found in 2 of 12 plants collected from the Old Hanford Townsite and 1 of 10 samples collected upstream from the Vernita Bridge. The concentrations of {sup 137}Cs, {sup 238}Pu, {sup 239,240}Pu, and isotopes of uranium were just above background in all three areas (100-N Area, Old Hanford Townsite, and 300 Area).

  9. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  10. Modelling shoreline evolution in the vicinity of a groyne and a river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valsamidis, Antonios; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2017-01-01

    Analytical solutions to the equations governing shoreline evolution are well-known and have value both as pedagogical tools and for conceptual design. Nevertheless, solutions have been restricted to a fairly narrow class of conditions with limited applicability to real-life situations. We present a new analytical solution for a widely encountered situation where a groyne is constructed close to a river to control sediment movement. The solution, which employs Laplace transforms, has the advantage that a solution for time-varying conditions may be constructed from the solution for constant conditions by means of the Heaviside procedure. Solutions are presented for various combinations of wave conditions and sediment supply/removal by the river. An innovation introduced in this work is the capability to provide an analytical assessment of the accretion or erosion caused near the groyne due to its proximity to the river which may act either as a source or a sink of sediment material.

  11. Correlation between land use changes and shoreline changes around THE Nakdong River in Korea using landsat images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, J. S.; Lim, C.; Baek, S. G.; Shin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal erosion has badly affected the marine environment, as well as the safety of various coastal structures. In order to monitor shoreline changes due to coastal erosion, remote sensing techniques are being utilized. The land-cover map classifies the physical material on the surface of the earth, and it can be utilized in establishing eco-policy and land-use policy. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between land-use changes around the Nakdong River and shoreline changes at Busan Dadaepo Beach adjacent to the river. We produced the land-cover map based on the guidelines published by the Ministry of Environment Korea, using eight Landsat satellite images obtained from 1984 to 2015. To observe land use changes around the Nakdong River, the study site was set to include the surroundings areas of the Busan Dadaepo Beach, the Nakdong River as well as its estuary, and also Busan New Port. For the land-use classification of the study site, we also produced a land-cover map divided into seven categories according to the Ministry of Environment, Korea guidelines and using the most accurate Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM). Land use changes inland, at 500m from the shoreline, were excluded for the correlation analysis between land use changes and shoreline changes. The other categories, except for the water category, were transformed into numerical values and the land-use classifications, using all other categories, were analyzed. Shoreline changes were observed by setting the base-line and three cut-lines. We assumed that longshore bars around the Nakdong River and the shoreline of the Busan Dadaepo Beach are affected. Therefore, we expect that shoreline changes happen due to the influence of barren land, wetlands, built-up areas and deposition. The causes are due to natural factors, such as weather, waves, tide currents, longshore currents, and also artificial factors such as coastal structures, construction, and dredging.

  12. Modeling Water-Surface Elevations and Virtual Shorelines for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magirl, Christopher S.; Breedlove, Michael J.; Webb, Robert H.; Griffiths, Peter G.

    2008-01-01

    Using widely-available software intended for modeling rivers, a new one-dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the Colorado River through Grand Canyon from Lees Ferry to Diamond Creek. Solving one-dimensional equations of energy and continuity, the model predicts stage for a known steady-state discharge at specific locations, or cross sections, along the river corridor. This model uses 2,680 cross sections built with high-resolution digital topography of ground locations away from the river flowing at a discharge of 227 m3/s; synthetic bathymetry was created for topography submerged below the 227 m3/s water surface. The synthetic bathymetry was created by adjusting the water depth at each cross section up or down until the model?s predicted water-surface elevation closely matched a known water surface. This approach is unorthodox and offers a technique to construct one-dimensional hydraulic models of bedrock-controlled rivers where bathymetric data have not been collected. An analysis of this modeling approach shows that while effective in enabling a useful model, the synthetic bathymetry can differ from the actual bathymetry. The known water-surface profile was measured using elevation data collected in 2000 and 2002, and the model can simulate discharges up to 5,900 m3/s. In addition to the hydraulic model, GIS-based techniques were used to estimate virtual shorelines and construct inundation maps. The error of the hydraulic model in predicting stage is within 0.4 m for discharges less than 1,300 m3/s. Between 1,300-2,500 m3/s, the model accuracy is about 1.0 m, and for discharges between 2,500-5,900 m3/s, the model accuracy is on the order of 1.5 m. In the absence of large floods on the flow-regulated Colorado River in Grand Canyon, the new hydraulic model and the accompanying inundation maps are a useful resource for researchers interested in water depths, shorelines, and stage-discharge curves for flows within the river corridor with 2002 topographic

  13. Geographic information systems-based expert system modelling for shoreline sensitivity to oil spill disaster in Rivers State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of adequate and appropriate actions, hazards often result in disaster. Oil spills across any environment are very hazardous; thus, oil spill contingency planning is pertinent, supported by Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI mapping. However, a significant data gap exists across many low- and middle-income countries in aspect of environmental monitoring. This study developed a geographic information system (GIS-based expert system (ES for shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It focused on the biophysical attributes of the shoreline with Rivers State as a case study. Data on elevation, soil, relative wave exposure and satellite imageries were collated and used for the development of ES decision rules within GIS. Results show that about 70% of the shoreline are lined with swamp forest/mangroves/nympa palm, and 97% have silt and clay as dominant sediment type. From the ES, six ranks were identified; 61% of the shoreline has a rank of 9 and 19% has a rank of 3 for shoreline sensitivity. A total of 568 km out of the 728 km shoreline is highly sensitive (ranks 7–10. There is a clear indication that the study area is a complex mixture of sensitive environments to oil spill. GIS-based ES with classification rules for shoreline sensitivity represents a rapid and flexible framework for automatic ranking of shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It is expected that this approach would kick-start sensitivity index mapping which is comprehensive and openly available to support disaster risk management around the oil producing regions of the country.

  14. Linking Backbarrier Lacustrine Stratigraphy with Spatial Dynamics of Shoreline Retreat in a Rapidly Subsiding Region of the Mississippi River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, M.; Liu, K. B.; Bianchette, T. A.; Yao, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The shoreline along the northern Gulf of Mexico is rapidly retreating as coastal features of abandoned Mississippi River delta complexes erode and subside. Bay Champagne is located in the Caminada-Moreau headland, a region of shoreline west of the currently active delta that has one of the highest rates of retreat and land loss. As a result, this site has transitioned from a stable, circular inland lake several kilometers from the shore to a frequently perturbed, semi-circular backbarrier lagoon, making it ideal to study the environmental effects of progressive land loss. Analyses of clastic layers in a series of sediment cores collected at this site over the past decade indicate the lake was less perturbed in the past and has become increasingly more sensitive to marine incursion events caused by tropical cyclones. Geochemical and pollen analyses of these cores also reveal profound changes in environmental and chemical conditions in Bay Champagne over the past century as the shoreline has retreated. Through relating stratigraphy to spatial changes observed from satellite imagery, this study attempts to identify the tipping point at which Bay Champagne began the transition from an inland lake to a backbarrier environment, and to determine the rate at which this transition occurred. Results will be used to develop a model of the environmental transition experienced by a rapidly retreating coastline and to predict how other regions of the Mississippi River deltaic system could respond to future shoreline retreat.

  15. Observations of Interannual Dune Morphological Evolution With Comparisons to Shoreline Change Along the Columbia River Littoral Cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doermann, L.; Kaminsky, G. M.; Ruggiero, P.

    2006-12-01

    Beach topographic data have been collected along the 160 km-long Columbia River Littoral Cell in southwest Washington and northwest Oregon, USA as part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study and a NANOOS pilot project. The monitoring program includes the collection of cross-shore beach profiles at 49 sites for each of the 34 seasons since 1997 (with few exceptions), enabling the investigation of the seasonal to interannual morphological variability of this high-energy coast. We focus here on the dunes backing the beaches, aiming to quantitatively describe the wide variety of characteristics they exhibit, as well as to relate dune evolution to shoreline change. To analyze the large volume of high-quality data, we use automated algorithms and systematic processes to identify the location of the dune toe, crest, and face, and calculate a volume (where enough data are available) and beach width for each survey. We define the position of the dune face as the elevation half-way between the average dune toe and average dune crest elevations at each profile location, and beach width as the horizontal distance between the 2-m contour (~MSL) and the dune toe. Much like shoreline proxies lower on the beach profile, (e.g., the 3-m contour), the location of the dune toe shows large seasonal variability with onshore deposition of sand in summer months and offshore sand transport in the winter. However, the location of the dune face and the elevation of the dune crest are much less variable and are useful in describing the evolution of the dune/beach system in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, over interannual time scales. On beaches with the highest shoreline change rates in the study area, the dune face follows the progradational trend of the shoreline with the dune face prograding at approximately 25-50% of the rate of the shoreline. Along many of these beaches that experienced severe erosion during the El Niño of 1997/98, the dune face

  16. Wetland shoreline recession in the Mississippi River Delta from petroleum oiling and cyclonic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangoonwala, Amina; Jones, Cathleen E.; Ramsey, Elijah W.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the relative impact of petroleum spill and storm surge on near-shore wetland loss by quantifying the lateral movement of coastal shores in upper Barataria Bay, Louisiana (USA), between June 2009 and October 2012, a study period that extends from the year prior to the Deepwater Horizon spill to 2.5 years following the spill. We document a distinctly different pattern of shoreline loss in the 2 years following the spill, both from that observed in the year prior to the spill, during which there was no major cyclonic storm, and from change related to Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in August 2012. Shoreline erosion following oiling was far more spatially extensive and included loss in areas protected from wave-induced erosion. We conclude that petroleum exposure can substantially increase shoreline recession particularly in areas protected from storm-induced degradation and disproportionally alters small oil-exposed barrier islands relative to natural erosion.

  17. Recent shoreline changes in the Volta River delta, West Africa: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spit growth has been accompanied by a wave of erosion over the last century of the immediate downdrift sector of the bight coast, endangering the town of Keta. Erosion since the 1960s may have been aggravated by the construction of the Akosombo hydropower dam. The tip of the spit has recently welded to the shoreline, ...

  18. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, Amarisa; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Shoreline dynamics of the active Yellow River delta since the implementation of Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme: A remote-sensing and statistics-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yaoshen; Chen, Shenliang; Zhao, Bo; Pan, Shunqi; Jiang, Chao; Ji, Hongyu

    2018-01-01

    The Active Yellow River (Huanghe) Delta (AYRD) is a complex landform in which rapid deposition takes place due to its geologic formation and evolution. Continuous monitoring of shoreline dynamics at high-temporal frequency is crucial for understanding the processes and the driving factors behind this rapidly changing coast. Great efforts have been devoted to map the changing shoreline of the Yellow River delta and explain such changes through remote sensing data. However, the temporal frequency of shoreline in the obtained datasets are generally not fine enough to reflect the detailed or subtly variable processes of shoreline retreat and advance. To overcome these limitations, we continuously monitored the dynamics of this shoreline using time series of Landsat data based on tidal-level calibration model and orthogonal-transect method. The Abrupt Change Value (ACV) results indicated that the retreat-advance patterns had a significant impact regardless of season or year. The Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) plays a dominant role in delivering river sediment discharge to the sea and has an impact on the annual average maximum ACV, especially at the mouth of the river. The positive relationship among the average ACV, runoff and sediment load are relatively obvious; however, we found that the Relative Exposure Index (REI) that measures wave energy was able to explain only approximately 20% of the variation in the data. Based on the abrupt change at the shoreline of the AYRD, river flow and time, we developed a binary regression model to calculate the critical sediment load and water discharge for maintaining the equilibrium of the active delta from 2002 to 2015. These values were approximately 0.48 × 108 t/yr and 144.37 × 108 m3/yr. If the current water and sediment proportions released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir during the WSRS remain stable, the erosion-accretion patterns of the active delta will shift from rapid accretion to a dynamic balance.

  20. The ichthyofauna of the shoreline zone in the longitudinal profile of the Danube River, Bulgaria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Polačik, Matej; Trichkova, T.; Janáč, Michal; Vassilev, M.; Jurajda, Pavel

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2008), s. 77-88 ISSN 0324-0770 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC522 Grant - others:National Science Fund(BG) B-1510/05 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Lower Danube * shoreline zone * fish community * distribution * abundance * endangered species Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://www.acta-zoologica-bulgarica.eu/downloads/acta-zoologica-bulgarica/2008/60-1-077-088.pdf

  1. The impact of Cyclone Nargis on the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River delta shoreline and nearshore zone (Myanmar): Towards degraded delta resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besset, Manon; Anthony, Edward J.; Dussouillez, Philippe; Goichot, Marc

    2017-10-01

    The Ayeyarwady River delta (Myanmar) is exposed to tropical cyclones, of which the most devastating has been cyclone Nargis (2-4 May 2008). We analysed waves, flooded area, nearshore suspended sediments, and shoreline change from satellite images. Suspended sediment concentrations up to 40% above average during the cyclone may reflect fluvial mud supply following heavy rainfall and wave reworking of shoreface mud. Massive recession of the high-water line resulted from backshore flooding by cyclone surge. The shoreline showed a mean retreat of 47 m following Nargis. Erosion was stronger afterwards (-148 m between August 2008 and April 2010), largely exceeding rates prior to Nargis (2000-2005: -2.14 m/year) and over 41 years (1974-2015: -0.62 m/year). This implies that resilience was weak following cyclone impact. Consequently, the increasingly more populous Ayeyarwady delta, rendered more and more vulnerable by decreasing fluvial sediment supply, could, potentially, become more severely impacted by future high-energy events.

  2. BANK STABILIZATION, SHORELINE LAND-USE, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF LARGE WOODY DEBRIS IN A REGULATED REACH OF THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER, NORTH DAKOTA, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large woody debris (LWD) is an important component of ecosystem function in floodplain rivers. We examined the effects on LWD distribution of shoreline land use, bank stabilization, local channel geomorphology, and distance from the dam in the Garrison Reach, a regulated reach of...

  3. Water Quality Sampling Locations Along the Shoreline of the Columbia River, Hanford Site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Robert E.; Patton, Gregory W.

    2009-12-14

    As environmental monitoring evolved on the Hanford Site, several different conventions were used to name or describe location information for various sampling sites along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. These methods range from handwritten descriptions in field notebooks to the use of modern electronic surveying equipment, such as Global Positioning System receivers. These diverse methods resulted in inconsistent archiving of analytical results in various electronic databases and published reports because of multiple names being used for the same site and inaccurate position data. This document provides listings of sampling sites that are associated with groundwater and river water sampling. The report identifies names and locations for sites associated with sampling: (a) near-river groundwater using aquifer sampling tubes; (b) riverbank springs and springs areas; (c) pore water collected from riverbed sediment; and (d) Columbia River water. Included in the listings are historical names used for a particular site and the best available geographic coordinates for the site, as of 2009. In an effort to create more consistency in the descriptive names used for water quality sampling sites, a naming convention is proposed in this document. The convention assumes that a unique identifier is assigned to each site that is monitored and that this identifier serves electronic database management requirements. The descriptive name is assigned for the convenience of the subsequent data user. As the historical database is used more intensively, this document may be revised as a consequence of discovering potential errors and also because of a need to gain consensus on the proposed naming convention for some water quality monitoring sites.

  4. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  5. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  6. River delta shoreline reworking and erosion in the Mediterranean and Black Seas: the potential roles of fluvial sediment starvation and other factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manon Besset

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin (including the Black Sea is characterized by a plethora of deltas that have developed in a wave-influenced setting. Many of these deltas are sourced in sediments by river catchments that have been variably dammed. The vulnerability status of a selection of ten deltas subject to different levels of reduction in fluvial sediment supply following damming was analysed by quantifying changes in delta protrusion area and protrusion angle over the last 30 years. The rationale for choosing these two metrics, which do not require tricky calculations of longshore bedload transport volumes and river ‘influence’, is that as sediment supply wanes, increasing relative efficiency of waves leads to longshore redistribution of reworked sediments and progressive ‘flattening’ of the delta protrusion. The results show that eight of the ten deltas (Nile, Rhône, Ebro, Ceyhan, Arno, Ombrone, Moulouya, Medjerda are in erosion, whereas two (Danube, Po show stability, but the statistical relationship between change in delta protrusion area and sediment flux reduction is poor, thus suggesting that the role of dams in causing delta shoreline erosion may have been over-estimated. But this poor relationship could also be due to a long temporal lag between dam construction and bedload removal and transport to the coast downstream of dams, and, where the delta protrusion is being eroded, to bedload trapping by shoreline engineering structures and by elongating delta-flank spits. Other potential influential factors in shoreline change include subsidence, sea-level rise, storminess, exceptional river floods, and managed sediment releases downstream of dams. A longer observation period and high-resolution sediment-budget studies will be necessary to determine more definitively to which extent continued trapping of sediment behind dams will impact overall delta stability in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Mitigation of delta erosion is likely to

  7. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River

  8. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

  9. Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoaib Ahmed

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

  10. Shoreline Changes on the Wave-Influenced Senegal River Delta, West Africa: The Roles of Natural Processes and Human Interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Sadio , Mamadou; Anthony , Edward ,; Diaw , Amadou ,; DUSSOUILLEZ , Philippe; FLEURY , Jules; Kane , Alioune; Almar , Rafael; Kestenare , Élodie

    2017-01-01

    International audience; The Senegal River delta in West Africa, one of the finest examples of " wave-influenced " deltas, is bounded by a spit periodically breached by waves, each breach then acting as a shifting mouth of the Senegal River. Using European Re-Analysis (ERA) hindcast wave data from 1984 to 2015 generated by the Wave Atmospheric Model (WAM) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we calculated longshore sediment transport rates along the spit. We also ...

  11. Association of long-lived radioactivity with sediment along the Columbia River shoreline, islands, bottom and slough areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fix, J.J.

    1975-01-01

    Since deactivation of the last once-through cooling production reactor in January 1971, radioactivity associated with sediments or biota in the Columbia River attributable to past Hanford operations decreased to very low levels. Currently only a few long-lived radionuclides are measurable and generally due to the association of these radionuclides with sediments in the river. The data available from several different monitoring programs provide a preliminary description of the extent, concentration, and physical form of these radionuclides. Data are presented on 137 Cs, 60 Co, 65 Zn, and 152 Eu in sediments sampled in 1974

  12. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  13. Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

    2018-06-01

    River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

  14. The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: Answering recent challenges to the paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedan, Keryn B.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Wolanski, Eric; Barbier, Edward B.; Silliman, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    For more than a century, coastal wetlands have been recognized for their ability to stabilize shorelines and protect coastal communities. However, this paradigm has recently been called into question by small-scale experimental evidence. Here, we conduct a literature review and a small meta-analysis of wave attenuation data, and we find overwhelming evidence in support of established theory. Our review suggests that mangrove and salt marsh vegetation afford context-dependent protection from erosion, storm surge, and potentially small tsunami waves. In biophysical models, field tests, and natural experiments, the presence of wetlands reduces wave heights, property damage, and human deaths. Meta-analysis of wave attenuation by vegetated and unvegetated wetland sites highlights the critical role of vegetation in attenuating waves. Although we find coastal wetland vegetation to be an effective shoreline buffer, wetlands cannot protect shorelines in all locations or scenarios; indeed large-scale regional erosion, river meandering, and large tsunami waves and storm surges can overwhelm the attenuation effect of vegetation. However, due to a nonlinear relationship between wave attenuation and wetland size, even small wetlands afford substantial protection from waves. Combining man-made structures with wetlands in ways that mimic nature is likely to increase coastal protection. Oyster domes, for example, can be used in combination with natural wetlands to protect shorelines and restore critical fishery habitat. Finally, coastal wetland vegetation modifies shorelines in ways (e.g. peat accretion) that increase shoreline integrity over long timescales and thus provides a lasting coastal adaptation measure that can protect shorelines against accelerated sea level rise and more frequent storm inundation. We conclude that the shoreline protection paradigm still stands, but that gaps remain in our knowledge about the mechanistic and context-dependent aspects of shoreline

  15. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  16. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  17. Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Jones, Edward C.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2011-01-01

    A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020.

  18. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  19. Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byman H. Hamududu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

  20. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  1. Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

    2018-06-15

    Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the

  2. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  3. [GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

    2004-07-01

    The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

  4. Cuspate Shoreline Morphology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McWilliams, Brandon

    2005-01-01

    Large beach cusps with wavelengths O(200m), sometimes termed mega-cusps, were measured along 18km of the Southern Monterey Bay coastline from October 2004 to April 2005 to investigate the cuspate shoreline response to rip current systems...

  5. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye. M. Gusev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  6. Hydrological simulations driven by RCM climate scenarios at basin scale in the Po River, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vezzoli

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available River discharges are the main expression of the hydrological cycle and are the results of climate natural variability. The signal of climate changes occurrence raises the question of how it will impact on river flows and on their extreme manifestations: floods and droughts. This question can be addressed through numerical simulations spanning from the past (1971 to future (2100 under different climate change scenarios. This work addresses the capability of a modelling chain to reproduce the observed discharge of the Po River over the period 1971–2000. The modelling chain includes climate and hydrological/hydraulic models and its performance is evaluated through indices based on the flow duration curve. The climate datasets used for the 1971–2000 period are (a a high resolution observed climate dataset, and COSMO-CLM regional climate model outputs with (b perfect boundary condition, ERA40 Reanalysis, and (c suboptimal boundary conditions provided by the global climate model CMCC–CM. The aim of the different simulations is to evaluate how the uncertainties introduced by the choice of the regional and/or global climate models propagate in the simulated discharges. This point is relevant to interpret the results of the simulated discharges when scenarios for the future are considered. The hydrological/hydraulic components are simulated through a physically-based distributed model (TOPKAPI and a water balance model at the basin scale (RIBASIM. The aim of these first simulations is to quantify the uncertainties introduced by each component of the modelling chain and their propagation. Estimation of the overall uncertainty is relevant to correctly understand the future river flow regimes. The results show how bias correction algorithms can help in reducing the overall uncertainty associated to the different stages of the modelling chain.

  7. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  8. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human

  9. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  10. A post-Calumet shoreline along southern Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, D.K.; Thompson, T.A.; Booth, R.K.

    2007-01-01

    The southern shore of Lake Michigan is the type area for many of ancestral Lake Michigan's late Pleistocene lake phases, but coastal deposits and features of the Algonquin phase of northern Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior are not recognized in the area. Isostatic rebound models suggest that Algonquin phase deposits should be 100 m or more below modern lake level. A relict shoreline, however, exists along the lakeward margin of the Calumet Beach that was erosional west of Deep River and depositional east of the river. For this post-Calumet shoreline, the elevation of basal foreshore deposits east of Deep River and the base of the scarp west of Deep River indicate a slightly westward dipping water plane that is centered at ???184 m above mean sea level. Basal foreshore elevations also indicate that lake level fell ???2 m during the development of the shoreline. The pooled mean of radiocarbon dates from the surface of the peat below post-Calumet shoreline foreshore deposits indicate that the lake transgressed over the peat at 10,560 ?? 70 years B.P. Pollen assemblages from the peat are consistent with this age. The elevation and age of the post-Calumet shoreline are similar to the Main Algonquin phase of Lake Huron. Recent isostatic rebound models do not adequately address a high-elevation Algonquin-age shoreline along the southern shore of Lake Michigan, but the Goldthwait (1908) hinge-line model does. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  11. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jenny L; Currin, Carolyn A; O'Brien, Colleen; Raffenburg, Craig; Davis, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  12. Multidecadal shoreline changes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2014-01-01

    Multidecadal shoreline changes along ca. 7000 km coastline around Denmark were computed for the time interval between 1862 AD and 2005 AD and were connected with a geomorphological coastal classification. The shoreline data set was based on shoreline positions from historical and modern topograph...... shoreline changes around Denmark, the mapping can contribute to enhanced adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to increased risks of erosion and flooding under a changing climate....

  13. Fish habitat regression under water scarcity scenarios in the Douro River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Climate change will predictably alter hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goals of this study are to identify the stream reaches that will undergo more pronounced flow reduction under different climate change scenarios and to assess which fish species will be more affected by the consequent regression of suitable habitats. The interplay between changes in flow and temperature and the presence of transversal artificial obstacles (dams and weirs) is analysed. The results will contribute to river management and impact mitigation actions under climate change. This study was carried out in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of 29 Hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were modelled using a water modelling system (MOHID), based on meteorological data recorded monthly between 2008 and 2014. The same variables were modelled considering future climate change scenarios. The resulting variables were used in empirical habitat models of a set of key species (brown trout Salmo trutta fario, barbell Barbus bocagei, and nase Pseudochondrostoma duriense) using boosted regression trees. The stream segments between tributaries were used as spatial sampling units. Models were developed for the whole Douro basin using 401 fish sampling sites, although the modelled probabilities of species occurrence for each stream segment were predicted only for the Tâmega catchment. These probabilities of occurrence were used to classify stream segments into suitable and unsuitable habitat for each fish species, considering the future climate change scenario. The stream reaches that were predicted to undergo longer flow interruptions were identified and crossed with the resulting predictive maps of habitat suitability to compute the total area of habitat loss per species. Among the target species, the brown trout was predicted to be the most sensitive to habitat regression due to the

  14. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  15. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

  16. Living Shorelines: Coastal Resilience with a Blue Carbon Benefit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny L Davis

    Full Text Available Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (< 30 m fringing marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

  17. Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

  18. Aquifer Sampling Tube Completion Report: 100 Area and Hanford Townsite Shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, R.E.; Borghese, J.V.; Erb, D.B.

    1998-02-01

    Groundwater contamination is known or suspected along the Hanford Site shoreline of the Columbia River adjacent to the retired reactor areas. Along the shoreline away from the reactor areas, where contamination is presumed to be absent, monitoring sites are frequently widely spaced or unavailable to confirm the presumption. Previous characterizations of contamination near the river have relied on data from a limited number of near-river wells, contaminant plume migration predictions, and river bank seepage sampling to anticipate shoreline conditions. In recent years, new methods have been developed to obtain groundwater samples from the aquifer near the groundwater/river water interface. These methods include using (1) divers to obtain samples of pore water from riverbed sediment and (2) sampling tubes that are driven into the aquifer at the shoreline. The latter method also permits sampling the aquifer at multiple depths, which helps to determine the thickness of the potentially contaminated groundwater layer that discharges into the river

  19. Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulations with a hydrological model for the river Rhine for the present (1960–1989 and a projected future (2070–2099 climate are discussed. The hydrological model (RhineFlow is driven by meteorological data from a 90-years (ensemble of three 30-years simulation with the HadRM3H regional climate model for both present-day and future climate (A2 emission scenario. Simulation of present-day discharges is realistic provided that (1 the HadRM3H temperature and precipitation are corrected for biases, and (2 the potential evapotranspiration is derived from temperature only. Different methods are used to simulate discharges for the future climate: one is based on the direct model output of the future climate run (direct approach, while the other is based on perturbation of the present-day HadRM3H time series (delta approach. Both methods predict a similar response in the mean annual discharge, an increase of 30% in winter and a decrease of 40% in summer. However, predictions of extreme flows differ significantly, with increases of 10% in flows with a return period of 100 years in the direct approach and approximately 30% in the delta approach. A bootstrap method is used to estimate the uncertainties related to the sample size (number of years simulated in predicting changes in extreme flows.

  20. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 4.0 - An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Zichichi, Jessica L.; Ergul, Ayhan

    2009-01-01

    The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 is a software extension to ESRI ArcGIS v.9.2 and above that enables a user to calculate shoreline rate-of-change statistics from multiple historic shoreline positions. A user-friendly interface of simple buttons and menus guides the user through the major steps of shoreline change analysis. Components of the extension and user guide include (1) instruction on the proper way to define a reference baseline for measurements, (2) automated and manual generation of measurement transects and metadata based on user-specified parameters, and (3) output of calculated rates of shoreline change and other statistical information. DSAS computes shoreline rates of change using four different methods: (1) endpoint rate, (2) simple linear regression, (3) weighted linear regression, and (4) least median of squares. The standard error, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval are also computed for the simple and weighted linear-regression methods. The results of all rate calculations are output to a table that can be linked to the transect file by a common attribute field. DSAS is intended to facilitate the shoreline change-calculation process and to provide rate-of-change information and the statistical data necessary to establish the reliability of the calculated results. The software is also suitable for any generic application that calculates positional change over time, such as assessing rates of change of glacier limits in sequential aerial photos, river edge boundaries, land-cover changes, and so on.

  1. Driftcretions: The legacy impacts of driftwood on shoreline morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Natalie; Wohl, Ellen

    2015-07-01

    This research demonstrates how vegetation interacts with physical processes to govern landscape development. We quantify and describe interactions among driftwood, sedimentation, and vegetation for Great Slave Lake, which is used as proxy for shoreline dynamics and landforms before deforestation and wood removal along major waterways. We introduce driftcretion to describe large, persistent concentrations of driftwood that interact with vegetation and sedimentation to influence shoreline evolution. We report the volume and distribution of driftwood along shorelines, the morphological impacts of driftwood delivery throughout the Holocene, and rates of driftwood accretion. Driftcretions facilitate the formation of complex, diverse morphologies that increase biological productivity and organic carbon capture and buffer against erosion. Driftcretions should be common on shorelines receiving a large wood supply and with processes which store wood permanently. We encourage others to work in these depositional zones to understand the physical and biological impacts of large wood export from river basins.

  2. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    model has been developed which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines. The numerical model is based on a spectral wave model, a depth integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model. First the theoretical...... of the feature and under predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the shoreline model predicts undulations lengths which are longer than the observed undulations. Lastly the thesis considers field measurements of undulations of the bottom bathymetry along an otherwise straight...... length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a shoreline stability analysis based on the numerical model. The analysis shows that the length of the undulations in the linear regime depends on the incoming wave conditions and on the coastal profile. For larger waves...

  3. Investigating Coastal Processes Responsible for Large-Scale Shoreline Responses to Human Shoreline Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slott, J. M.; Murray, A. B.; Ashton, A. D.

    2006-12-01

    Human shoreline stabilization practices, such as beach nourishment (i.e. placing sand on an eroding beach), have become more prevalent as erosion threatens coastal communities. On sandy shorelines, recent experiments with a numerical model of shoreline change (Slott, et al., in press) indicate that moderate shifts in storminess patterns, one possible outcome of global warming, may accelerate the rate at which shorelines erode or accrete, by altering the angular distribution of approaching waves (the `wave climate'). Accelerated erosion would undoubtedly place greater demands on stabilization. Scientists and coastal engineers have typically only considered the site-specific consequences of shoreline stabilization; here we explore the coastal processes responsible for large-scale (10's kms) and long-term (decades) effects using a numerical model developed by Ashton, et al. (2001). In this numerical model, waves breaking at oblique angles drive a flux of sediment along the shoreline, where gradients in this flux can shape the coastline into surprisingly complex forms (e.g. cuspate-capes found on the Carolina coast). Wave "shadowing" plays a major role in shoreline evolution, whereby coastline features may block incoming waves from reaching distant parts. In this work, we include beach nourishment in the Ashton, et al. (2001) model. Using a cuspate-cape shoreline as our initial model condition, we conducted pairs of experiments and varied the wave-climate forcing across each pair, each representing different storminess scenarios. Here we report on one scenario featuring increased extra-tropical storm influence. For each experiment-pair we ran a control experiment with no shoreline stabilization and a second where a beach nourishment project stabilized a cape tip. By comparing the results of these two parallel runs, we isolate the tendency of the shoreline to migrate landward or seaward along the domain due solely to beach nourishment. Significant effects from beach

  4. Overview of shoreline cleaning agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, J.

    1992-01-01

    Chemical cleaning agents may be used to promote release of stranded oil from shorelines for reasons including biological sensitivity of indigenous fauna and flora to the oil, amenity considerations of the shoreline, or concern about refloating of the oil and subsequent stranding on adjacent shorelines. While use of chemical cleaning agents may be appropriate under proper toxic responses in circumstances, certain limitations should be recognized. The potential for toxic responses in indigenous fauna and flora to the cleaning agents must be considered. Enhanced penetration of oil into permeable shorelines following treatment with chemical cleaning agents also is not desirable. However, if conditions related to toxicity and substrate permeability are determined to be acceptable, the use of chemical cleaning agents for treatment of stranded oil can be considered. Chemical agents for cleaning oiled shorelines can be grouped into three categories: (1) non-surfactant-based solvents, (2) chemical dispersants, and (3) formulations especially designed to release stranded oil from shoreline substrates (i.e., shoreline-cleaning-agents). Depending on the specific circumstances present on an oiled shoreline, it is generally desirable that chemical agents used for cleaning will release oil from shoreline substrate(s) to surface waters. Recovery of the oil can then be accomplished by mechanical procedures such as booming and skimming operations

  5. [Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

    2014-12-01

    The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

  6. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  7. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMCs) from rainfall runoff on mixed agricultural land use in the shoreline zone of the Yamuna River in Delhi, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Deepshikha; Gupta, Ruchi; Singh, Ram Karan; Kansal, Arun

    2012-03-01

    This paper is focused on the monitoring of the diffuse pollution characteristics from the agricultural land confining the River Yamuna in Delhi (capital of India). Agricultural fields surrounding the Yamuna river are direct nonpoint source of pollution impacting the river quality. The study includes watershed delineation for the River Yamuna using SWAT (2005) and land use classification for the city using GIS and remote sensing. Thereafter, the rainfall-runoff pollutant concentrations from the mixed agricultural land use were assessed for the 2006 and 2007 monsoon period (July-September). Runoff was measured using SCS method and grab samples of rainfall runoff were collected at three stations namely Old Delhi Railway Bridge (ODRB), Nizamuddin and Okhla bridge in Delhi. The samples were analysed for physico-chemical and biological parameters. Rainfall runoff and event mean concentrations (EMCs) for different water quality parameters were characterized and the effect of land use was analyzed. The average EMCs for BOD, COD, ammonia, nitrate, TKN, hardness, TDS, TSS, chlorides, sulfates, phosphate, fluorides and TC were 21.82 mg/L, 73.48 mg/L, 72.68 μg/L, 229.87 μg/L, 15.32 μg/L, 11.36 mg/L, 117.44 mg/L, 77.60 mg/L, 117.64 mg/L, 135.82 mg/L, 0.08 mg/L, 0.85 mg/L and 2,827.47 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The EMCs of TSS, nitrogen and its compounds, phosphate and BOD were high.

  8. Assessment of the Species Composition, Densities, and Distribution of Native Freshwater Mussels along the Benton County Shoreline of the Hanford Reach, Columbia River, 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Robert P.; Tiller, Brett L.; Bleich, Matthew D.; Turner, Gerald; Welch, Ian D.

    2011-01-31

    The Hanford Reach of the Columbia River is the last unimpounded section of the river and contains substrate characteristics (cobble, gravel, sand/silt) suitable for many of the native freshwater mussels known to exist in the Pacific Northwest. Information concerning the native mussel species composition, densities, and distributions in the mainstem of the Columbia River is limited. Under funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted an assessment of the near-shore habitat on the Hanford Reach. Surveys conducted in 2004 as part of the Ecological Monitoring and Compliance project documented several species of native mussels inhabiting the near-shore habitat of the Hanford Reach. Findings reported here may be useful to resource biologists, ecologists, and DOE-RL to determine possible negative impacts to native mussels from ongoing near-shore remediation activities associated with Hanford Site cleanup. The objective of this study was to provide an initial assessment of the species composition, densities, and distribution of the freshwater mussels (Margaritiferidae and Unionidae families) that exist in the Hanford Reach. Researchers observed and measured 201 live native mussel specimens. Mussel density estimated from these surveys is summarized in this report with respect to near-shore habitat characteristics including substrate size, substrate embeddedness, relative abundance of aquatic vegetation, and large-scale geomorphic/hydrologic characteristics of the Hanford Reach.

  9. Integrated Nitrogen and Flow Modelling (INCA) in a Boreal River Basin Dominated by Forestry: Scenarios of Environmental Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rankinen, Katri; Lepistoe, Ahti; Granlund, Kirsti

    2004-01-01

    A new version (v1.7) of the Integrated Nitrogen in CAtchments model(INCA) was applied to the northern boreal Simojoki river basin (3160 km 2 ) in Finland. The INCA model is a semi-distributed, dynamic nitrogen (N) process model which simulates N transport and processes in catchments. The INCA model was applied to model flow and seasonal inorganic N dynamics of the river Simojoki basin over the period 1994-1996, and validated for two more years. Both calibration and validation of the model were successful. The model was able to simulate annual dynamics of inorganic N concentrations in the river. The effects of forest management and atmospheric deposition on inorganic N fluxes to the sea in 2010 were studied. Three scenarios were applied for forestry practices and two for deposition. The effects of forest cutting scenarios and atmospheric deposition scenarios on inorganic N flux to the sea were small. The combination of the maximum technically possible reduction of N deposition and a decrease of 100% in forest cutting and peat mining areas decreased NO 3 - -N flux by 6.0% and NH 4 + -N flux by 3.1%

  10. Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area

  11. Hydrography - Streams and Shorelines

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The hydrography layer consists of flowing waters (rivers and streams), standing waters (lakes and ponds), and wetlands -- both natural and manmade. Two separate...

  12. River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L. M.; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-10-01

    Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

  13. River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L M; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-10-01

    Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

  14. Reducing future river export of nutrients to coastal waters of China in optimistic scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strokal, Maryna; Kroeze, Carolien; Wang, Mengru; Ma, Lin

    2017-01-01

    Coastal waters of China are rich in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and thus often eutrophied. This is because rivers export increasing amounts of nutrients to coastal seas. Animal production and urbanization are important sources of nutrients in Chinese rivers. In this study we explored the

  15. Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

    2018-03-01

    Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  17. Nutrient inputs and hydrology together determine biogeochemical status of the Loire River (France): Current situation and possible future scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Josette; Ramarson, Antsiva; Billen, Gilles; Théry, Sylvain; Thiéry, Dominique; Thieu, Vincent; Minaudo, Camille; Moatar, Florentina

    2018-05-10

    The Grafs-Seneque/Riverstrahler model was implemented for the first time on the Loire River for the 2002-2014 period, to explore eutrophication after improvement of wastewater treatments. The model reproduced the interannual levels and seasonal trends of the major water quality variables. Although eutrophication has been impressively reduced in the drainage network, a eutrophication risk still exists at the coast, as shown by the N-ICEP indicator, pointing out an excess of nitrogen over silica and phosphorus. From maximum biomass exceeding 120 μgChla l -1 in the 1980's, we observed decreasing maximum values from 80 to 30 μgChla l -1 during the period studied. Several scenarios were explored. Regarding nutrient point sources, a low wastewater treatment scenario, similar to the situation in the 1980's, was elaborated, representing much greater pollution than the reference period (2002-2014). For diffuse sources, two agricultural scenarios were elaborated for reducing nitrogen, one with a strict application of the agricultural directives and another investigating the impact of radical structural changes in agriculture and the population's diet. Although reduced, a risk of eutrophication would remain, even with the most drastic scenario. In addition, a pristine scenario, with no human activity within the basin, was devised to assess water quality in a natural state. The impact of a change in hydrology on the Loire biogeochemical functioning was also explored according to the effect of climate change by the end of the 21st century. The EROS hydrological model was used to force Riverstrahler, considering the most pessimistic SRES A2 scenario run with the ARPEGE model. Nutrient fluxes all decreased due to a >50% reduction in the average annual discharge, overall reducing the risk of coastal eutrophication, but worsening the water quality status of the river network. The Riverstrahler model could be useful to help water managers contend with future threats in the

  18. Hydrological response to climate change: The Pearl River, China under different RCP scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Yan

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Previous studies focussed on annual discharge and extreme flood events in the basin. However it is also important to assess variations in low flow across the basin, because it is suffering from water shortage and salt water intrusion in the dry season. Results indicate a reduction in average low flow under the five climate models. The reduction varies across the basin and is between 6 and 48% for RCP4.5. River discharge in the dry season is projected to decrease throughout the basin. In the wet season, river discharge tends to increase in the middle and lower reaches and decrease in the upper reach of the Pearl River basin. The variation of river discharge is likely to aggravate water stress. Especially the reduction of low flow is problematic as already now the basin experiences temporary water shortages in the delta.

  19. County Boundaries with Shorelines (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — County boundaries with shorelines cut in (NTAD). The TIGER/Line Files are shapefiles and related database files (.dbf) that are an extract of selected geographic and...

  20. NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Coastal Mapping Shoreline Products from the Remote Sensing Division are primarily for application to the nautical charts produced by NOAA's Office of Coast...

  1. Simulation of streamflows and basin-wide hydrologic variables over several climate-change scenarios, Methow River basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank D.; Mastin, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing watershed model and downscaling procedures to provide simulated hydrological data over various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for use in the Methow River framework prototype. An existing watershed model was used to simulate daily time series of streamflow and basin-wide hydrologic variables for baseline conditions (1990–2000), and then for all combinations of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios and five general circulation models for future conditions (2008–2095). Input data for 18 precipitation and 17 temperature model input sites were generated using statistical techniques to downscale general circulation model data. The simulated results were averaged using an 11-year moving window to characterize the central year of the window to provide simulated data for water years 2008–2095.

  2. Using Hydraulic Modeling to Evaluate Lateral Connectivity Improvements under Alternative Restoration Scenarios in the Atchafalaya River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden-Lesmeister, A.; Remo, J. W.; Piazza, B.

    2017-12-01

    The Atchafalaya River (AR) in Louisiana is the principal distributary of the Mississippi River. Reach to system scale modifications on the AR and throughout its basin for regional flood mitigation, navigation, and hydrocarbon extraction have substantially altered the hydrologic connectivity between the river and its floodplain wetlands, threatening the ecological integrity of this globally-important ecosystem. Stakeholder groups agree that restoring flow connectivity is essential to maintaining the basin's water quality, and recent management efforts have focused on the 174 km2 Flat Lake Water Management Unit (WMU). Several flow-connectivity enhancement projects have been proposed by the Atchafalaya Basin Program's Technical Advisory Group, but none have been constructed. We collaborated with The Nature Conservancy and other agencies to obtain existing datasets and develop a 1D2D hydraulic model to examine whether proposed restoration projects improved lateral surface-water connectivity in the Flat Lake WMU. To do this, we employed a range of physical parameters (inundation extent, water depths, and rates of WSEL reduction) as potential indicators of improved connectivity with restoration. We ran simulations to examine two scenarios - a baseline scenario (S1) to examine current conditions (no restoration projects), and a full-implementation scenario (S2), where all restoration projects that could be examined at the model resolution were implemented. Potential indicators of improved lateral connectivity indicated that proposed projects may play an important role in improving water quality in the Flat Lake WMU. At the end of the constant-discharge portion of the run, average depths between S1 and S2 remained unchanged; however, depths and water levels were consistently lower for S2 during a drawdown. Volumetrically, up to 4.4 million m3 less water was in the Flat Lake system when projects were implemented. The results indicate that projects introduce nutrient

  3. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  4. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  5. Instantaneous Shoreline Extraction Utilizing Integrated Spectrum and Shadow Analysis From LiDAR Data and High-resolution Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, I.-Chieh

    manually connected, for its length was less than 3% of the total shoreline length in our dataset. Secondly, the parameters for satellite image classification needed to be manually determined. The need for manpower was significantly less compared to the ground surveying or aerial photogrammetry. The first phase of shoreline extraction was to utilize Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Mean-Shift segmentation on the coordinate (X, Y, Z), and attributes (multispectral bands from satellite images) of the LiDAR points to classify each LiDAR point into land or water surface. Boundary of the land points were then traced to create the shoreline. The second phase of shoreline extraction solely from satellite images utilized spectrum, NDVI, and shadow analysis to classify the satellite images into classes. These classes were then refined by mean-shift segmentation on the panchromatic band. By tracing the boundary of the water surface, the shoreline can be created. Since these two shorelines may represent different shoreline instances in time, evaluating the changes of shoreline was the first to be done. Then an independent scenario analysis and a procedure are performed for the shoreline of each of the three conditions: in the process of erosion, in the process of accession, and remaining the same. With these three conditions, we could analysis the actual terrain type and correct the classification errors to obtain a more accurate shoreline. Meanwhile, methods of evaluating the quality of shorelines had also been discussed. The experiment showed that there were three indicators could best represent the quality of the shoreline. These indicators were: (1) shoreline accuracy, (2) land area difference between extracted shoreline and ground truth shoreline, and (3) bias factor from shoreline quality metrics.

  6. Historical sediment budget and present-day catchment-shoreline coupling at Twofold Bay, southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, T.; Oliver, T.; Hudson, J.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    Considering projected impacts of sea-level rise in the 21st century on sandy shorelines, an understanding of long-term sediment budget for individual beaches or coastal compartments supports assessments of shoreline stability. We examined a low-lying coastal beach-ridge barrier in Twofold Bay using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating , airborne LiDAR, sedimentological analysis and seismic data to assess changes in rates of sediment supply to this shoreline through time. Calculations of barrier volume, Twofold Bay bay-floor sediment volume and estimates of sediment delivery from a proximal river system provide a broad-scale assessment of past-sediment budget. Between ca. 7500 years ago and 1500 years ago, sources of sediment for shoreline progradation at Boydtown were bay-floor sediments either inherited or moved into the embayment during late-stage transgression. Progradation rate between ca. 7500-1500 years ago was 0.16 m/yr with subaerial barrier volume accumulating at 0.46 m3/m/yr. Between ca. 1500 years and present day, the Towamba River to the south has delivered additional sediment to the Boydtown shoreline more than doubling shoreline progradation rate to 0.65 m/yr and subaerial barrier accumulation has risen to 1.83 m3/m/yr. The delivery of fluvial sediment from the Towamba River was restricted to the past ca. 1500 years as prior to this, estuary infilling prevented floods delivering sediments to the bay. This recent historical coupling of river sand supply and shoreline progradation rate implies that anthropogenic modifications to the Towamba River catchment such as river damming, or climatic changes reducing rainfall or runoff, would negatively impact the Boydtown Beach shoreline. Conversely increased rainfall or deforestation may increase sediment discharge due to upstream erosion. The Boydtown shoreline within Twofold Bay may be able to maintain its current position in the coming century if fluvial sediment delivery continues. The fact that

  7. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  8. Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-09-09

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  9. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruibin Zhang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  10. Investigating the impact of land cover change on peak river flow in UK upland peat catchments, based on modelled scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jihui; Holden, Joseph; Kirkby, Mike

    2014-05-01

    Changes to land cover can influence the velocity of overland flow. In headwater peatlands, saturation means that overland flow is a dominant source of runoff, particularly during heavy rainfall events. Human modifications in headwater peatlands may include removal of vegetation (e.g. by erosion processes, fire, pollution, overgrazing) or pro-active revegetation of peat with sedges such as Eriophorum or mosses such as Sphagnum. How these modifications affect the river flow, and in particular the flood peak, in headwater peatlands is a key problem for land management. In particular, the impact of the spatial distribution of land cover change (e.g. different locations and sizes of land cover change area) on river flow is not clear. In this presentation a new fully distributed version of TOPMODEL, which represents the effects of distributed land cover change on river discharge, was employed to investigate land cover change impacts in three UK upland peat catchments (Trout Beck in the North Pennines, the Wye in mid-Wales and the East Dart in southwest England). Land cover scenarios with three typical land covers (i.e. Eriophorum, Sphagnum and bare peat) having different surface roughness in upland peatlands were designed for these catchments to investigate land cover impacts on river flow through simulation runs of the distributed model. As a result of hypothesis testing three land cover principles emerged from the work as follows: Principle (1): Well vegetated buffer strips are important for reducing flow peaks. A wider bare peat strip nearer to the river channel gives a higher flow peak and reduces the delay to peak; conversely, a wider buffer strip with higher density vegetation (e.g. Sphagnum) leads to a lower peak and postpones the peak. In both cases, a narrower buffer strip surrounding upstream and downstream channels has a greater effect than a thicker buffer strip just based around the downstream river network. Principle (2): When the area of change is equal

  11. Soil erosion and deposition in the new shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaolei; Nilsson, Christer; Pilotto, Francesca; Liu, Songping; Shi, Shaohua; Zeng, Bo

    2017-12-01

    During the last few decades, the construction of storage reservoirs worldwide has led to the formation of many new shorelines in former upland areas. After the formation of such shorelines, a dynamic phase of soil erosion and deposition follows. We explored the factors regulating soil dynamics in the shorelines of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the Yangtze River in China. We selected four study sites on the main stem and three on the tributaries in the upstream parts of the reservoir, and evaluated whether the sites close to the backwater tail (the point at which the river meets the reservoir) had more soil deposition than the sites far from the backwater tail. We also tested whether soil erosion differed between the main stem and the tributaries and across shorelines. We found that soil deposition in the new shorelines was higher close to the backwater tail and decreased downstream. Soil erosion was higher in the main stem than in the tributaries and higher at lower compared to higher shoreline altitudes. In the tributaries, erosion did not differ between higher and lower shoreline levels. Erosion increased with increasing fetch length, inundation duration and distance from the backwater tail, and decreased with increasing soil particle fineness. Our results provide a basis for identifying shorelines in need of restorative or protective measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. NOAA Composite Shoreline - Vectorized Shoreline Derived From NOAA-NOS Coastal Survey Maps and Aerial Photographs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Composite Shoreline is primarily intended for high-resolution cartographic representation of the shoreline. It is a high-resolution vector shoreline based...

  13. Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on riparian vegetation of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGory, K.E.; Van Lonkhuyzen, R.A.

    1995-06-01

    Four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam were evaluated to determine their potential effects on riparian vegetation along the Green River in Utah and Colorado. Data collected in June 1992 indicated that elevation above the river had the largest influence on plant distribution. A lower riparian zone occupied the area between the approximate elevations of 800 and 4,200-cfs flows--the area within the range of hydropower operational releases. The lower zone was dominated by wetland plants such as cattail, common spikerush, coyote willow, juncus, and carex. An upper riparian zone was above the elevation of historical maximum power plant releases from the dam (4,200 cfs), and it generally supported plants adapted to mesic, nonwetland conditions. Common species in the upper zone included box elder, rabbitbrush, grasses, golden aster, and scouring rush. Multispectral aerial videography of the Green River was collected in May and June 1992 to determine the relationship between flow and the areas of water and the riparian zone. From these relationships, it was estimated that the upper zone would decrease in extent by about 5% with year-round high fluctuation, seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, and seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuation, but it would increase by about 8% under seasonally adjusted steady flow. The lower zone would increase by about 13% for both year-round and seasonally adjusted high fluctuation scenarios but would decrease by about 40% and 74% for seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuation and steady flows, respectively. These changes are considered to be relatively minor and would leave pre-dam riparian vegetation unaffected. Occasional high releases above power plant capacity would be needed for long-term maintenance of this relict vegetation

  14. The impact of selected sea level rise scenarios in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.

    reconfiguration in response to different sea level rise scenarios, the method of empirical distribution of new shorelines using trend lines which accounts for the inherent variability in shoreline response based on differing coastal processes is employed...

  15. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  16. Evaluation of Managed Aquifer Recharge Scenarios using Treated Wastewater: a Case study of the Zarqa River Basin, Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Rawy, Mustafa; Zlotnik, Vitaly; Al-Maktoumi, Ali; Al-Raggad, Marwan; Kacimov, Anvar; Abdalla, Osman

    2016-04-01

    Jordan is an arid country, facing great challenges due to limited water resources. The shortage of water resources constrains economy, especially agriculture that consumes the largest amount of available water (about 53 % of the total demand). According to the Jordan Water Strategy 2008 - 2022, groundwater is twice greater than the recharge rate. Therefore, the government charged the planners to consider treated wastewater (TWW) as a choice in the water resources management and development strategies. In Jordan, there are 31 TWW plants. Among them, As Samra plant serving the two major cities, Amman and Zarqa, is the largest, with projected maximum capacity of 135 Million m3/year. This plant is located upstream of the Zarqa River basin that accepts all TWW discharges. The Zarqa River is considered the most important source of surface water in Jordan and more than 78 % of its current is composed of TWW. The main objectives were to develop a conceptual model for a selected part of the Zarqa River basin, including the As Samrapant, and to provide insights to water resources management in the area using TWW. The groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW 2005 and used to assess changes in the aquifer and the Zarqa River under a set of different increments in discharge rates from the As Samra plant and different groundwater pumping rates. The results show that the water table in the study area underwent an average water table decline of 29 m prior to the As Samra plant construction, comparing with the current situation (with annual TWW discharge of 110 Million m3). The analysis of the TWW rate increase to 135 million m3/year (maximum capacity of the As Samra plant) shows that the average groundwater level will rise 0.55 m, compared to the current conditions. We found that the best practices require conjunctive use management of surface- and groundwater. The simulated scenarios highlight the significant role of TWW in augmenting the aquifer storage, improving

  17. The impacts of climate and land-use change scenarios on river ecology: the case of Margaritifera margaritifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Regina; Fernandes, Luís; Varandas, Simone; Pereira, Mário; Sousa, Ronaldo; Teixeira, Amilcar; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Cortes, Rui; Pacheco, Fernando

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most important causes of biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems and it is expected to cause extinctions in many species in the future. Freshwater ecosystems are also highly affected by anthropogenic pressures such as land use/land cover changes, water abstractions and impoundments. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) namely on the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This is an environmental indicator and endangered species currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by the precipitation decrease projected for the 21st century and the deviation of a significant portion of the river water to an adjacent watershed (since 1998). This decrease in river water can be especially acute during the summer months, forming small pools dispersed along the water course where M. margaritifera, and its host (Salmo trutta), barely find biological conditions for survival. The materials and methods used in this study include; (i) the assessment of water quality based on minimum, maximum and average values of relevant physicochemical parameters within the period 2000-2009; (ii) assessment of future climate change settings based on air temperature and precipitation projected by Regional and Global Circulation Models for recent past (1961 - 1990) and future climate scenarios (2071 - 2099); (iii) data processing to remove the model biases; and, (iv) integrated watershed modelling with river-planning (Mike Basin) and broad GIS (ArcMap) computer packages. Our findings comprise: (i); a good relationship between current wildfire incidence and river water quality; (ii) an increase in the future air temperature throughout the year; (iii) increases in future precipitations during winter and decreases during the other seasons

  18. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan - a data integration approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, T.; McAneney, K. J.; Chen, K.

    2011-12-01

    Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data - census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data - this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US 12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that presented here have

  19. Title:Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Scenarios for Bar River of NeishabourUsing WEAP Model Under A2 Climatic Changes Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Ghandhari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The rapid population growth in Iran and the corresponding increases in water demands, including drinking water, industry, agriculture and urban development and existing constraints necessitate optimal scheduling necessity in use of this crucial source. Furthermore, the phenomenon of climate change as a major challenge for humanity can be considered in future periods. Climate change is caused by human activity have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, referred to as "global warming". Climate change indicates an unusual change in the Earth's atmosphere and climate consequences of the different parts of planet Earth. Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions. A Warmer climate exacerbates the hydrologic cycle, altering precipitation, magnitude and timing of runoff. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on water consumption and demand in Bar river basin of Neighbor. Climate change affects precipitation and temperature patterns and hence, may alter on water requirements and demand at three sectors; agriculture, industry and urban water. Materials and Methods: At present, Global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. AOGCMs models represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalize as many processes as possible. These models are based on physical laws that are provided by mathematical relations. AOGCMs models used for climate studies and climate forecast are run at coarse spatial resolution and are unable to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as clouds and topography. As a result AOGCMs output cannot be used for local impact studies. Therefore, downscaling methods were developed to obtain local-scale weather and climate, particularly at

  20. A numerical shoreline model for shorelines with large curvature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    orthogonal horizontal directions are used. The volume error in the sediment continuity equation which is thereby introduced is removed through an iterative procedure. The model treats the shoreline changes by computing the sediment transport in a 2D coastal area model, and then integrating the sediment...

  1. Future ecosystem services in a Southern African river basin: a scenario planning approach to uncertainty

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bohensky, EL

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available and the economy are strong and civil society plays a minor role. Fortress world is a scenario about a collapse of national governance struc- tures, a faltering economy, and a fragmented civil soci- ety. In local resources, a strong, self-reliant civil society..., between ecosystem ser- vices and biodiversity are a major conservation concern. The maintenance of some services, such as nature-based tourism, medicinal plants, and crop pollination, has a clear link to biodiversity and provides a strong economic...

  2. Scenarios of atmospheric rivers affecting Western Europe during the XXI Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events in Europe during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Europe as was the case in major historical floods in Duero (Pereira et al., 2016) and Tagus (Trigo et al., 2015) rivers in Iberia. We analyse ARs reaching Europe, for the extended winter months (October to March), in simulations from six CMIP5 global climate models (CGMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980-2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074- 2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980-2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia (Ramos et al., 2016). References: Pereira et al., (2016) Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371-390. Ramos et al., (2016) Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9315-9323. Trigo et al., (2015) The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis, Front. Earth Sci. 2:3. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces

  3. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  4. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  5. Fluvial fluxes from the Magdalena River into Cartagena Bay, Caribbean Colombia: Trends, future scenarios, and connections with upstream human impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo, Juan D.; Escobar, Rogger; Tosic, Marko

    2018-02-01

    Fluxes of continental runoff and sediments as well as downstream deposition of eroded soils have severely altered the structure and function of fluvial and deltaic-estuarine ecosystems. The Magdalena River, the main contributor of continental fluxes into the Caribbean Sea, delivers important amounts of water and sediments into Cartagena Bay, a major estuarine system in northern Colombia. Until now, trends in fluvial fluxes into the bay, as well as the relationship between these tendencies in fluvial inputs and associated upstream changes in the Magdalena catchment, have not been studied. Here we explore the interannual trends of water discharge and sediment load flowing from the Magdalena River-Canal del Dique system into Cartagena Bay during the last three decades, forecast future scenarios of fluxes into the bay, and discuss possible connections between observed trends in fluvial inputs and trends in human intervention in the Magdalena River basin. Significant upward trends in annual runoff and sediment load during the mid-1980s, 1990s, and post-2000 are observed in the Magdalena and in the Canal del Dique flowing into Cartagena Bay. During the last decade, Magdalena streamflow and sediment load experienced increases of 24% and 33%, respectively, compared to the pre-2000 year period. Meanwhile, the Canal del Dique witnessed increases in water discharge and sediment load of 28% and 48%, respectively. During 26 y of monitoring, the Canal del Dique has discharged 177 Mt of sediment to the coastal zone, of which 52 Mt was discharged into Cartagena Bay. Currently, the Canal drains 6.5% and transports 5.1% of the Magdalena water discharge and sediment load. By 2020, water discharge and sediment flux from the Canal del Dique flowing to the coastal zone will witness increments of 164% and 260%, respectively. Consequently, sediment fluxes into Cartagena Bay will witness increments as high as 8.2 Mt y- 1 or 317%. Further analyses of upstream sediment load series for 21

  6. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan – a data integration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Okada

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data – census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data – this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US$ 12.5 billion. Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like

  7. HYDROLOGIC MODELLING OF KATSINA-ALA RIVER BASIN: AN EMERGING SCENARIO FROM LAKE NYOS THREAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Akinyede

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the hydrologic system surrounding crater lakes is of great importance for prevention of flooding damages, conservation of ecological environment, and assessment of socio-economic impact of dam failure on the civilians in the downstream regions. Lake Nyos is a crater lake formed by volcanic activities at the Oku volcanic field on the Cameroon Volcanic Line. It is a freshwater lake with a maximum depth of 200 meter. In 1986, a limnic eruption at the lake emitted 1.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the bottom of saturated water into the air and suffocated up to 1,800 people and 3,500 livestock at nearby villages. The lake waters are held in place by a natural dam composed of loosely consolidated volcanic rock, which is now at the verge of collapse due to accelerated erosion. This study was carried out to determine the flood risks and vulnerability of population and infrastructure along Katsina-Ala drainage basins. The project integrated both satellite images and field datasets into a hydrologic model for Katsina-Ala River Basin and its vicinity including the Lake Nyos. ArcHydro was used to construct a hydrologic database as 'data models' and MIKE SHE was employed to conduct hydrologic simulations. Vulnerable infrastructures, population and socio-economic activities were identified to assist the Federal and State governments in disaster mitigation and management plans. The result of the project provides comprehensive knowledge of hydrologic system of Katsina-Ala drainage basin to mitigate potential future disasters from a potential dam failure and manage water resources against such disasters.

  8. The Influence of Shoreline Curvature on Rates of Shoreline Change on Sandy Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, A. B.; Lauzon, R.; Cheng, S.; Liu, J.; Lazarus, E.

    2017-12-01

    The sandy, low-lying barrier islands which characterize much of the US East and Gulf coasts are popular spots to live and vacation, and are often heavily developed. However, sandy shorelines and barriers are also naturally mobile landforms, which are vulnerable to sea level rise and storms and can experience high rates of shoreline change. Many previous studies have attempted to understand and quantify the factors that contribute to those rates of shoreline change, such as grain size, underlying geology, sea level rise, and anthropogenic modification. Shoreline curvature has not been considered in such analyses, but previous research has demonstrated that subtle coastline curvature (and therefore alongshore variation in relative offshore wave angle) can result in gradients in net alongshore transport that cause significant shoreline erosion or accretion. Here we present the results of a spatially extensive analysis of the correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates for the sandy shorelines of the US East and Gulf coasts. We find that, for wave-dominated sandy coasts where nourishment and shoreline stabilization do not dominate the shoreline change signal (such as parts of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida), there is a significant negative correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates over 1 - 5 km and decadal to centurial space and time scales. This correlation indicates that a portion of the coastal erosion (and accretion) observed in these areas can be explained by the smoothing of subtle coastline curvature by gradients in alongshore transport, and suggests that shoreline curvature should be included in future attempts to understand historical and future rates of shoreline change. Shoreline stabilization, especially through beach nourishment, complicates the relationship between curvature and shoreline change. Beach construction during nourishment creates a seaward convex curvature in the part of the shoreline moves

  9. Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

  10. Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri eLe Cozannet

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

  11. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  12. Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Mou Leong; Ibrahim, Ab Latif; Yusop, Zulkifli; Chua, Vivien P.; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2017-06-01

    This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin in north-eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Thirty-six downscaled climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the periods of 2015-2044 and 2045-2074 were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Differences of these scenarios were calculated by comparing to the 1975-2004 baseline period. Overall, the SWAT model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.75 and 0.63 for calibration and validation, respectively. Based on the ensemble of five GCMs, the annual rainfall and maximum temperature are projected to increase by 1.2-8.7% and 0.6-2.1 °C, respectively. This corresponds to the increases in the annual streamflow (14.6-27.2%), evapotranspiration (0.3-2.7%), surface runoff (46.8-90.2%) and water yield (14.2-26.5%) components. The study shows an increase of monthly rainfall during the wet season, and decrease during the dry season. Therefore, the monthly streamflow and surface runoff are likely to increase significantly in November, December and January. In addition, slight decreases in the monthly water yield are found between June and October (1.9-8.9%) during the 2015-2044 period. These findings could act as a scientific reference to develop better climate adaptation strategies.

  13. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  14. 2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Chihiro; Zhou, Maichun; Kiem, Anthony S; Fukami, Kazuhiko; Prasantha, Hapuarachchi H A; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2009-10-01

    A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4)tN a(-1) (+13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3)tP a(-1) (+24.7%). Overall, the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment.

  15. Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; John M. Rybczyk,; Beck, Holly J.; William J. Sleavin,; Ehab A. Meselhe,; Mead A. Allison,; Ronald G. Boustany,; Craig J. Fischenich,; Victor H. Rivera-Monroy,

    2014-01-01

    Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions ( 1,500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

  16. Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Theresa L.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coast from New Hampshire to Rhode Island including all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Elizabeth Islands. This data is an update to the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Change Project. Shoreline positions from the past 164 years (1845 to 2009) were used to compute the shoreline change rates. These data include a combined length of 1,804 kilometers of new shoreline data derived from color orthophoto imagery collected in 2008 and 2009, and topographic lidar collected in 2007. These new shorelines have been added to previously published historic shoreline data from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and the U.S. Geological Survey. A detailed report containing a discussion of the shoreline change data presented here and a summary of the resulting rates is available and cited at the end of the Introduction section of this report.

  17. An integrated Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS) to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative flow scenarios on river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Kelly O.; Talbert, Colin B.; Cole, Jeffrey C.; Galbraith, Heather S.; Blakeslee, Carrie J.; Hanson, Leanne; Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    In regulated rivers, managers must evaluate competing flow release scenarios that attempt to balance both human and natural needs. Meeting these natural flow needs is complex due to the myriad of interacting physical and hydrological factors that affect ecosystems. Tools that synthesize the voluminous scientific data and models on these factors will facilitate management of these systems. Here, we present the Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS), a tool that enables evaluation of competing flow scenarios and other variables on instream habitat. We developed a REFDSS for the Upper Delaware River, USA, a system that is regulated by three headwater reservoirs. This version of the REFDSS has the ability to integrate any set of spatially explicit data and synthesizes modeled discharge for three competing management scenarios, flow-specific 2-D hydrodynamic modeled estimates of local hydrologic conditions (e.g., depth, velocity, shear stress, etc.) at a fine pixel-scale (1 m2), and habitat suitability criteria (HSC) for a variety of taxa. It contains all individual model outputs, computationally integrates these data, and outputs the amount of potentially available habitat for a suite of species of interest under each flow release scenario. Users have the flexibility to change the time period of interest and vary the HSC. The REFDSS was developed to enable side-by-side evaluation of different flow management scenarios and their effects on potential habitat availability, allowing managers to make informed decisions on the best flow scenarios. An exercise comparing two alternative flow scenarios to a baseline scenario for several key species is presented. The Upper Delaware REFDSS was robust to minor changes in HSC (± 10 %). The general REFDSS platform was developed as a user-friendly Windows desktop application that was designed to include other potential parameters of interest (e.g., temperature) and for transferability to other riverine systems.

  18. Natural shorelines promote the stability of fish communities in an urbanized coastal system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven B Scyphers

    Full Text Available Habitat loss and fragmentation are leading causes of species extinctions in terrestrial, aquatic and marine systems. Along coastlines, natural habitats support high biodiversity and valuable ecosystem services but are often replaced with engineered structures for coastal protection or erosion control. We coupled high-resolution shoreline condition data with an eleven-year time series of fish community structure to examine how coastal protection structures impact community stability. Our analyses revealed that the most stable fish communities were nearest natural shorelines. Structurally complex engineered shorelines appeared to promote greater stability than simpler alternatives as communities nearest vertical walls, which are among the most prevalent structures, were most dissimilar from natural shorelines and had the lowest stability. We conclude that conserving and restoring natural habitats is essential for promoting ecological stability. However, in scenarios when natural habitats are not viable, engineered landscapes designed to mimic the complexity of natural habitats may provide similar ecological functions.

  19. Mega drought in the Colorado River Basin, water supply, and adaptive scenario planning for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area; simulations using WaterSim 5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC), a boundary organization, bridges science and policy (to foster knowledge-based decision making); we study how decisions are made in the face of uncertainty. Our water policy and management model for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (hereafter "Phoenix"), termed WaterSim, represents one such bridging mechanism. We evaluated the effect of varying the length of drought on water availability for Phoenix. We examined droughts (starting in 2000) lasting 15, 25, and 50 years. We picked a 60-year window of runoff estimates from the paleo reconstruction data for the Colorado River (CO) (1121 through 1180 A.D.), and the two local rivers (1391 through 1450 A.D.), and assumed that the proportional difference in median flow between these periods and the long-term record represented an estimate of potential drought reductions on river flows. This resulted in a 12%, and 19% reduction in flows for the CO River and the Salt-Verde (SV) Rivers, respectively. WaterSim uses 30-year trace periods from the historical flow records to simulate river flow for future projections. We used each 30-year trace from the historical record (1906 to present, CO River; 1945 to present SV Rivers) , and default settings, to simulate 60 year projections of Lake Mead elevation and the accompanying Colorado River water shortages to Phoenix. Overall, elevations for Lake Mead fell below the 1st shortage sharing tier (1075 ft) in 83% of the simulations; 74% of the simulations fell below the 2nd tier (1050 ft), and 64% fell below the 3rd (1025 ft). Length of drought, however, determined the shortage tiers met. Median elevations for droughts ending in 2015, 2025, and 2050 were 1036, 1019, and 967 feet msl, respectively. We present the plausible water futures with adaptive anticipatory scenario planning for the projected reductions in surface water availability to demonstrate decision points for water conservation measures to effectively manage shortage conditions.

  20. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  1. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  2. Shoreline response to detached breakwaters in prototype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khuong, T.C.

    2016-01-01

    An accurate prediction of shoreline changes behind detached breakwaters is, in regard to the adjustment to the environmental impact, still a challenge for designers and coastal managers. This research is expected to fill the gaps in the estimation of shoreline changes by developing new and

  3. Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuanita, Nita; Pratama, Roka; Husrin, Semeidi

    2015-04-01

    Modeling of Shoreline Changes of Tulamben Coast, Bali Indonesia Tulamben coast is located in Lombok Strait on the northeastern coast of Bali island, Indonesia, as part of Karang Asem district. Severe erosion along the coastline has long been occurred in Karang Asem area and threatening houses, religious buildings (Hindu temples), and a national heritage site. As one of most popular diving site in Bali Island, Tulamben attracted many local and international tourist since 1980. The main attraction of Tulamben diving site is the USAT Liberty ship that was shipwrecked in Tulamben beach in 1942, after attacked by Japanese torpedo in Lombok Strait. Currently about 150 diver visit Tulamben per day. Due to physical changes of coastal environmental such as coastal erosion, sliding, and scouring, the shipwreck is vulnerable. It had been slipped off the beach several times and is predicted would be moved to deeper offshore floor if it is not protected. Coastal erosion in Karang Asem district is occurred probably due to interaction between cross-shore and long-shore wave-generated current and river sand supply decreasing after sand mining activities. In this study, the effect of cross-shore and longshore transport to coastal erosion in Tulamben is analyzed by doing numerical model. Numerical simulation of shoreline changes is performed by using Beach Processes Module of CEDAS (Coastal Engineering Design and Analysis System) consists of SBEACH and GENESIS. The model domain is covered Karang Asem coastline about 60 km length and wave data is calculated from hourly wind data (10 years). Simulated shoreline is calibrated using shoreline data from 1972 to 2013. Using calibrated model, then the simulation is performed from 2003 - 2013. From the simulation it is determined that longshore current and longshore sediment contribute to coastal erosion in Tulamben. Based on model results, several alternatives of general layout and configuration of coastal protection structures is proposed

  4. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the

  5. Decadal shoreline assessment using remote sensing along the central Odisha coast, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Dhiman, R.; Choudhary, R.; Jayakumar, S.; Ilangovan, D.; Vethamony, P.

    sensing data (Landsat and IRS P6) were used in the study. Digital shoreline analysis system discovered the eroded and accreted parts of the study area. Gahirmatha and coast above Devi River experienced heavy erosion during 2000–2012 compared with 1990...

  6. 55-year (1960-2015) spatiotemporal shoreline change analysis using historical DISP and Landsat time series data in Shanghai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Gang; Mi, Huan; Wang, Weian; Tong, Xiaohua; Li, Zhongbin; Li, Tan; Liu, Shijie; Hong, Yang

    2018-06-01

    forces of the shoreline changes were also explored in detail. Compared with natural factors, such as relative Sea Level Rise (SLR) and the reduction in sediment loading from the Yangtze River, anthropogenic activities that include land reclamation and channel projects are the primary causes of the shoreline changes in Shanghai.

  7. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

  8. Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

    2018-01-01

    Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

  9. Shoreline change detection from Karwar to Gokarna - South West coast of India using remotely Sensed data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Choudhary, R.; Gowthaman, R.; SanilKumar, V.

    -494 #02060313 Copyright ©2013 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved. Shoreline change detection from Karwar to Gokarna - South West coast of India using remotely Sensed data RICHA CHOUDHARY 1 , R. GOWTHAMAN 2 AND V. SANIL KUMAR 2 1... years period. Gangavali river mouth has narrowed due to siltation. Significant changes in the geomorphic features like spit growth, braided island, creeks, tidal flat are observed near Kali and Gangavali river mouth. Keywords: Remote sensing...

  10. Web-Based Water Accounting Scenario Platform to Address Uncertainties in Water Resources Management in the Mekong : A Case Study in Ca River Basin, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apirumanekul, C.; Purkey, D. R.; Pudashine, J.; Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S.; Wang, D.; Ate, P.; Meechaiya, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rapid economic development in the Mekong Region is placing pressure on environmental resources. Uncertain changes in land-use, increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, migration patterns and climate risks s combined with scarce water resources are increasing water demand in various sectors. More appropriate policies, strategies and planning for sustainable water resource management are urgently needed. Over the last five years, Vietnam has experienced more frequent and intense droughts affecting agricultural and domestic water use during the dry season. The Ca River Basin is the third largest river basin in Vietnam with 35% of its area located in Lao PDR. The delta landscape comprises natural vegetation, forest, paddy fields, farming and urban areas. The Ca River Basin is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that impacts on crop production, farming livelihoods and household water consumption. Water scarcity is exacerbated by uncertainties in policy changes (e.g. changes in land-use, crop types), basin development (e.g. reservoir construction, urban expansion), and climate change (e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and onset of monsoon). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model, with inputs from satellite-based information and institutional data, is used to estimate water supply, water use and water allocation in various sectors (e.g. household, crops, irrigation and flood control) under a wide range of plausible future scenarios in the Ca River Basin. Web-Based Water Allocation Scenario Platform is an online implementation of WEAP model structured in terms of a gaming experience. The online game, as an educational tool, helps key agencies relevant to water resources management understand and explore the complexity of integrated system of river basin under a wide range of scenarios. Performance of the different water resources strategies in Ca River Basin (e.g. change of dam operation to address needs in various sectors, construction of dams, changes

  11. Numerical prediction of shoreline adjacent to breakwater

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mahadevan, R.; Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.

    Existing mathematical models for prediction of shoreline changes in the vicinity of a breakwater were reviewed The analytical and numerical results obtained from these models have been compared Under the numerical approach, two different implicit...

  12. Modeling wetland plant community response to assess water-level regulation scenarios in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudon, Christiane; Wilcox, Douglas; Ingram, Joel

    2006-01-01

    The International Joint Commission has recently completed a five-year study (2000-2005) to review the operation of structures controlling the flows and levels of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system. In addition to addressing the multitude of stakeholder interests, the regulation plan review also considers environmental sustainability and integrity of wetlands and various ecosystem components. The present paper outlines the general approach, scientific methodology and applied management considerations of studies quantifying the relationships between hydrology and wetland plant assemblages (% occurrence, surface area) in Lake Ontario and the Upper and Lower St. Lawrence River. Although similar study designs were used across the study region, different methodologies were required that were specifically adapted to suit the important regional differences between the lake and river systems, range in water-level variations, and confounding factors (geomorphic types, exposure, sediment characteristics, downstream gradient of water quality, origin of water masses in the Lower River). Performance indicators (metrics), such as total area of wetland in meadow marsh vegetation type, that link wetland response to water levels will be used to assess the effects of different regulation plans under current and future (climate change) water-supply scenarios.

  13. Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basheer, Amir K.; Lu, Haishen; Omer, Abubaker; Ali, Abubaker B.; Abdelgader, Abdeldime M. S.

    2016-04-01

    The fate of seasonal river ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge of the river, which are related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore, the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Dinder River basin (DRB) and to infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in Sudan. Four global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with a hydrological model (SWAT - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow is quite sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration for the habitats of flora and fauna.

  14. Historical Shoreline for Louisiana, Geographic NAD83, NOAA (2001) [shoreline_la_NOAA_1986

    Data.gov (United States)

    Louisiana Geographic Information Center — These data were automated to provide a suitable geographic information system (GIS) data layer depicting the historical shoreline for Louisiana. These data are...

  15. Analyses on the Changes of Grazing Capacity in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China under Various Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongrong Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available On the livestock production in the Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR in the macrocontext of climatic change, this study analyzed the possible changing trends of the net primary productivity (NPP of local grasslands under four RCPs scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 during 2010–2030 with the model estimation, and the grass yield and theoretical grazing capacity under each scenario were further qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that the grassland productivity in the TRHR will be unstable under all the four scenarios. The grassland productivity will be greatly influenced by the fluctuations of precipitation and the temperature fluctuations will also play an important role during some periods. The local grassland productivity will decrease to some degree during 2010–2020 and then will fluctuate and increase slowly during 2020–2030.The theoretical grazing capacity was analyzed in this study and calculated on the basis of the grass yield. The result indicates that the theoretical grazing capacity ranges from 4 million sheep to 5 million sheep under the four scenarios and it can provide quantitative information reference for decision making on how to determine the reasonable grazing capacity, promote the sustainable development of grasslands, and so forth.

  16. Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

    2016-10-01

    The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and

  17. WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Aggarwal

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily

  18. Numerical simulation of hydrodynamic and water quality effects of shoreline changes in Bohai Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Han; Shen, Yongming; Su, Meirong; Yu, Chunxue

    2018-02-01

    This study uses the HD and Ecolab modules of MIKE to simulate the hydrodynamic and water quality and predict the influence of shoreline changes in Bohai Bay, China. The study shows that shoreline changes weaken the residual current and generate a counter-clockwise circulation south of Huanghua Port, thereby resulting in weak water exchange capacity and low pollutant-diffusing capacity. Shoreline changes reduce the area of Bohai Bay, resulting in a smaller tidal prism and further weakening the water exchange capacity. This situation is not conducive to the diffusion of pollutants, and therefore may lead to increased water pollution in the bay. Shoreline changes hinder the spread of runoff, weaken the dilution effect of the river on seawater, and block the spread of coastal residual current, thereby resulting in increased salinity near the reclamation area. Shoreline changes lead to an increase in PO4-P concentration and decrease in DIN concentration. The value of N/P near the project decreases, thereby weakening the phosphorus-limited effect.

  19. A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, D.; Maule, A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

  20. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  1. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions

  2. The Use of Oral Histories to Identify Criteria for Future Scenarios of Sustainable Farming in the South Yangtze River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingyang Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural practices in Jiangnan water towns have historically been identified as maintaining a balance between human activity and the local environment, but are now a significant local source of water pollution. Using a multi-methods approach, this study deduces the environmental impact of traditional practices, and the socially desired conditions for successfully reintroducing critical ones. Oral histories from 31 farmers in Tianshanzhuang village, South Yangtze River were in order to chart changes in farming practices over four historic periods, and used to estimate the nitrogen and phosphorus burdens per acre. Findings show that the use of Lan River Mud—dredged mud for fertilizer—was key in producing a positive impact, but abandoned after the 1980s. Four criteria hindering reintroduction of traditional practices were identified, and potentially useful but fragmented emerging local candidate practices are considered against these, as are recent practices in Japan. We propose that the cooperation of several stakeholders with various related government departments in China could lead to a portfolio of effective policy changes and should be studied further: to include new methods and uses of Lan River Mud; the integration of aquaculture, leisure and tourism industries with agriculture; and the production of organic produce with well-planned internet-linked sales, delivery and coordination mechanisms.

  3. 77 FR 23120 - Special Local Regulations; Lowcountry Splash Open Water Swim, Wando River and Cooper River, Mount...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-18

    ...-AA08 Special Local Regulations; Lowcountry Splash Open Water Swim, Wando River and Cooper River, Mount... establishing special local regulations on the waters of the Wando River and Cooper River in Mount Pleasant... River and Cooper River along the shoreline of Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. The Lowcountry Splash...

  4. Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

    2016-01-01

    Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

  5. Shoreline clean-up methods : biological treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoura, S.T. [Oil Spill Response Limited, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The cleanup of oil spills in shoreline environments is a challenging issue worldwide. Oil spills receive public and media attention, particularly in the event of a coastal impact. It is important to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of cleanup methods when defining the level of effort and consequences that are appropriate to remove or treat different types of oil on different shoreline substrates. Of the many studies that have compared different mechanical, chemical and biological treatments for their effectiveness on various types of oil, biological techniques have received the most attention. For that reason, this paper evaluated the effectiveness and effects of shoreline cleanup methods using biological techniques. It summarized data from field experiments and oil spill incidents, including the Exxon Valdez, Sea Empress, Prestige, Grand Eagle, Nakhodka, Guanabara Bay and various Gulf war oil spills. Five major shoreline types were examined, notably rocky intertidal, cobble/pebble/gravel, sand/mud, saltmarsh, and mangrove/sea-grass. The biological techniques that were addressed were nutrient enrichment, hydrocarbon-utilizing bacteria, vegetable oil biosolvents, plants, surf washing, oil-particle interactions and natural attenuation. The study considered the oil type, volume and fate of stranded oil, location of coastal materials, extent of pollution and the impact of biological techniques. The main factors that affect biodegradation of hydrocarbons are the volume, chemical composition and weathering state of the petroleum product as well as the temperature, oxygen availability of nutrients, water salinity, pH level, water content, and microorganisms in the shoreline environment. The interaction of these factors also affect the biodegradation of oil. It was concluded that understanding the fate of stranded oil can help in the development of techniques that improve the weathering and degradation of oil on complex shoreline substrates. 39 refs.

  6. Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

    2015-06-01

    The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such

  7. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2017-07-18

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Atlantic regions of the United States have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change project. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included four shoreline positions at a given location. The long-term shoreline change rates also incorporate the proxy-datum bias correction to account for the unidirectional onshore bias of the proxy-based high water line shorelines relative to the datum-based mean high water shorelines. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment project. The average rates reported here have a reduced amount of uncertainty relative to those presented in the previous assessments for these two regions.

  8. Dungeness Crab Dredging Entrainment Studies in the Lower Columbia River, 2002 – 2004: Loss Projections, Salinity Model, and Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearson, Walter H.; Williams, Greg D.; Skalski, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Dungeness crab studies conducted in 2002 for the Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) constituted a major step forward in quantifying crab entrainment through statistical projections of adult equivalent loss (AEL) and loss to the fishery (LF) from proposed construction and maintenance dredging in the Columbia River navigation channel (Pearson et al. 2002, 2003). These studies also examined the influence of bottom salinity on crab abundance and entrainment rates. Additional sampling was conducted in 2004 to tighten loss projections, further develop the crab salinity model, and apply the model to assess correlations of entrainment rates and projected losses with seasonal salinity changes.

  9. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skagius, K. [Kemakta Consultants co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wingefors, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1992-12-31

    The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

  10. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skagius, K.; Wingefors, S.

    1992-01-01

    The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

  11. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skagius, K [Kemakta Consultants co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wingefors, S [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1993-12-31

    The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

  12. Climate Change and water resources: Scenarios of low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauser, W; Marke, T; Stoeber, S

    2008-01-01

    Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000 km 2 ). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition. DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator 12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.

  13. Eureka Littoral Cell CRSMP Humboldt Bay Shoreline Types 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — In 2011 Aldaron Laird walked and kayaked the entire shoreline of Humboldt Bay mapping the shoreline conditions onto 11x17 laminated fieldmaps at a scale of 1' = 200'...

  14. Development of Biotechnical Methods to Control Shoreline Erosion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mays, D

    1999-01-01

    .... Coconut fiber logs, straw bales wrapped in poultry netting, large round hay bales, and bundled logs anchored to the shoreline were all evaluated for their potential to control wave damage to the shoreline...

  15. Shoreline oil cleanup, recovery and treatment evaluation system (SOCRATES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rusin, J.; Lunel, T.; Sommerville, M.; Tyler, A.; Marshall, I.

    1996-01-01

    A beach cleanup computer system was developed to mitigate the impact of shoreline oiling. The program, entitled SOCRATES, was meant to determine the most suitable cleanup methodologies for a range of different spill scenarios. The development, operation and capabilities of SOCRATES was described, with recent examples of successful use during the Sea Empress spill. The factors which influenced decision making and which were central to the numerical solution were: (1) the volumetric removal rate of oil, (2) area removal rate of oil, (3) length of oil slick removed per hour, (4) volumetric removal rate of oily waste, (5) area of the oil slick, (6) length of the oil slick, (7) volume of liquid emulsion, and (8) length of beach. 14 figs

  16. Shoreline change after 12 years of tsunami in Banda Aceh, Indonesia: a multi-resolution, multi-temporal satellite data and GIS approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugianto, S.; Heriansyah; Darusman; Rusdi, M.; Karim, A.

    2018-04-01

    The Indian Ocean Tsunami event on the 26 December 2004 has caused severe damage of some shorelines in Banda Aceh City, Indonesia. Tracing back the impact can be seen using remote sensing data combined with GIS. The approach is incorporated with image processing to analyze the extent of shoreline changes with multi-temporal data after 12 years of tsunami. This study demonstrates multi-resolution and multi-temporal satellite images of QuickBird and IKONOS to demarcate the shoreline of Banda Aceh shoreline from before and after tsunami. The research has demonstrated a significant change to the shoreline in the form of abrasion between 2004 and 2005 from few meters to hundred meters’ change. The change between 2004 and 2011 has not returned to the previous stage of shoreline before the tsunami, considered post tsunami impact. The abrasion occurs between 18.3 to 194.93 meters. Further, the change in 2009-2011 shows slowly change of shoreline of Banda Aceh, considered without impact of tsunami e.g. abrasion caused by ocean waves that erode the coast and on specific areas accretion occurs caused by sediment carried by the river flow into the sea near the shoreline of the study area.

  17. Automatic Detection of Decadal Shoreline Change on Northern Coastal of Gresik, East Java - Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuad, M. A. Z.; A, M. Fais D.

    2017-12-01

    The Coastal zone is a dynamic region that has high environmental and economic values. This present research focuses on the analyzing the rate of shoreline change using multi-temporal Landsat Imagery and Digital Shoreline Analysis Systems (DSAS) along the northern part of Gresik coastal area, East Java Indonesia. Five village were selected for analysis; Campurejo, Dalegan, Prupuh, Ngemboh, and Banyuurip. Erosion and Accretion were observed and detected on Multi-temporal satellite Images along the area of interest from 1972 - 2016. Landsat Images were radiometrically and geometrically corrected before using for analysis. Coastline delineation for each Landsat image was performed by MNDWI method before digitized for quantitative shoreline change analysis. DSAS was performed for quantitative analysis of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and End Point Rate (EPR). The results indicate that in the study area accretion and abrasion was occurred, but overall abrasion was dominated than accretion. The remarkable shoreline changes were observed in the entire region. The highest abrasion area was occurred in Ngemboh village. From 1972 to 2016, coastline was retreat 242.56 meter to the land and the rate of movement was -5.54m/yr. In contrast, Campurejo area was relatively stable due to the introduction of manmade structure, i.e. Jetty and Groin. The Shoreline movement and the rate of movement in this area were -6.11m and -0.12 m/yr respectively. The research represents an important step in understanding the dynamics of coastal area in this area. By identification and analysis of coastline evolution, the stake holder could perform a scenario for reducing the risk of coastal erosion and minimize the social and economic lost.

  18. Applying a Multi-Model Ensemble Method for Long-Term Runoff Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios for the Yellow River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linus Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Given the substantial impacts that are expected due to climate change, it is crucial that accurate rainfall–runoff results are provided for various decision-making purposes. However, these modeling results often generate uncertainty or bias due to the imperfect character of individual models. In this paper, a genetic algorithm together with a Bayesian model averaging method are employed to provide a multi-model ensemble (MME and combined runoff prediction under climate change scenarios produced from eight rainfall–runoff models for the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the multi-model ensemble method, especially the genetic algorithm method, can produce more reliable predictions than the other considered rainfall–runoff models. These results show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty and thus improve the accuracy for future projections using different models because an MME approach evens out the bias involved in the individual model. For the study area, the final combined predictions reveal that less runoff is expected under most climatic scenarios, which will threaten water security of the basin.

  19. Monitoring Shoreline Change using Remote Sensing and GIS: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key words: remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), aerial photographs, shoreline change. Data from aerial photographs taken in 1981, 1992 and 2002 of the Kunduchi shoreline off the Dar es Salaam coast were integrated in a geographic information system (GIS) to determine shoreline change in that locality.

  20. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.S. southeast Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2006-01-01

    The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina). These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast is the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico, and will eventually include the Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1997-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1401/ to get additional

  1. SCAT 2000 : a new generation of forms for the description and documentation of oiled shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; Sergy, G.A.; Martin, R.D.; Tarpley, J.A.; Michel, J.; Yender, R.

    2000-01-01

    Over ten years ago, the Exxon Valdez and the Nestucca both generated major oil spills which highlighted the need to develop appropriate response procedures and documentation protocols. The Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team approach was born. In recent years, the forms were used to describe the conditions resulting from oil spills and shoreline oiling conditions and recommendations were made for improvements and modifications. The call was heard and the staff at Environment Canada worked closely with the staff at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to review the forms and provide a suitable upgrade for the third generation set of forms. The authors described the improvements which included: (1) a revised standard shoreline oiling form, (2) a revised short form, (3) a tar ball form, and (4) a revised marsh/wetlands oiling form. Environment Canada also introduced (5) a tidal flat form, and (6) a revised sketch map base. It also made provisions for the use of those forms for large freshwater lakes, arctic coasts, mangroves, coral reefs, rivers, and stream environments and for winter ice or snow conditions with a few minor adjustments suggested. Only a few minor differences remained, specifically in the standard shoreline types, between the systems used by NOAA and Environment Canada since both agencies cooperated for their development. 24 refs., 3 tabs., 2 figs

  2. Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline changes along the coast between sousse- Monastir (Eastearn of Tunisia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathallah, S.; Ben Amor, R.; Gueddari, M.

    2009-04-01

    Spatio-temporal evolution of shoreline Changes along the coast between Sousse-Monastir (Eastern of Tunisia). Safa Fathallah*, Rim Ben Amor and Moncef Gueddari Unit of Research of Geochemistry and Environmental Geology. Faculty of Science of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, 2092. (*) Corresponding author: safa_fathallah@yahoo.fr The coast of Sousse-Monastir in eastern of Tunisia, has undergone great changes, due to natural and anthropic factors. Increasing human use, the construction of two ports and coastal urbanization (hotels and industries) has accelerated the erosion process. The coastal defense structures (breakwaters and enrockment), built to protect the most eroded zone are efficient, but eroded zones appeared in the southern part of breakwaters. Recent and historic aerial photography was used to estimate, observe, and analyze past shoreline and bathymetric positions and trends involving shore evolution for Sousse-Monastir coast. All of the photographs were calibrated and mosaicked by Arc Map Gis 9.1, the years used are 1925, 1962, 1988, 1996, and 2001 for shoreline change analysis and 1884 and 2001 for bathymetric changes. The analyze of this photographs show that the zone located at the south of breakwater are mostly eroded with high speed process (2m/year). Another zone appears as eroded at the south part of Hamdoun River, with 1,5m/year erosion speed . Keywords: Shoreline evolution, defense structures, Sousse-Monastir coast, Tunisia.

  3. Shoreline change due to coastal structures of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K. S.; Lee, T. S.; Kim, Y. I.

    2001-01-01

    Characteristics of shoreline change at the coastal area near power plant were analyzed. For a nuclear power plant located in the east coast of Korean peninsula, remote-sensing data, i.e.airborne images and satellite images are acquired and shoreline data were extracted. Recession and davance of shoreline due to coastal structures of powder plant and land reclamation was showed. 1-line numerical shoreline change model was established for simulating the response of shoreline to construction of coastal structures. The model uses curvilinear coordinates that follow the shoreline and is capable of handling the formation of tombolos as well as the growth of salients in the vicinity of coastal structures. The model predicted significant erosion of beach in case breakwaters were extended. Offshore breakwaters were suggested as a countermeasure to shoreline change

  4. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Hoeke, Ron K.

    2017-10-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  5. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  6. Response of Living Shorelines to Wave Energy and Sea Level rise: Short-term Resilience and Long-term Vulnerability in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currin, C.; Davis, J.

    2017-12-01

    A decade of research and monitoring of Living Shoreline sites in North Carolina identifies both resilient and vulnerable features of this approach to estuarine shoreline stabilization. We used a wave energy model to calculate representative wave energy along 1500 miles of estuarine shoreline, and observed a linear, negative relationship between wind-wave energy and the width of fringing salt marshes. Proximity to navigation channels (boat wakes) further reduced fringing marsh width. These results provide guidance for Living Shoreline design alternatives. Surface elevation tables (SETs) deployed at the lower edge of both natural fringing marshes and `Living Shoreline' marsh-sill sites demonstrated that while natural marshes were losing surface elevation at an average rate of 6 mm y-1, marsh surface elevation at Living Shoreline sites increased at an average of 3 mm y-1. Marsh vegetation at the lower edge of natural sites exhibited a decline in biomass, while Living Shoreline sites exhibited an increase in upper marsh species and an extension of lower marsh into previous mudflat habitat. These changes provide Living Shoreline (marsh-sill) sites with added resilience to sea level rise, though decreased inundation alters the delivery of other ecosystem services (fish habitat, nutrient cycling). North Carolina lagoonal estuaries have low suspended sediment supply and low topography, and modeling predicts that landward transgression is the primary means by which salt marsh acreage can be maintained under moderate to high sea level rise scenarios. In this region, bank erosion can be important source of sediment to wetland habitats. Further, the association of built infrastructure with Living Shoreline sites portends a future scenario of coastal squeeze, as marsh migration landward will be inhibited.

  7. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  8. Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2017-07-01

    This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

  9. Optimizing Water Allocation under Uncertain System Conditions for Water and Agriculture Future Scenarios in Alfeios River Basin (Greece—Part B: Fuzzy-Boundary Intervals Combined with Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Bekri

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Optimal water allocation within a river basin still remains a great modeling challenge for engineers due to various hydrosystem complexities, parameter uncertainties and their interactions. Conventional deterministic optimization approaches have given their place to stochastic, fuzzy and interval-parameter programming approaches and their hybrid combinations for overcoming these difficulties. In many countries, including Mediterranean countries, water resources management is characterized by uncertain, imprecise and limited data because of the absence of permanent measuring systems, inefficient river monitoring and fragmentation of authority responsibilities. A fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology developed by Li et al. (2010 is selected and applied in the Alfeios river basin (Greece for optimal water allocation under uncertain system conditions. This methodology combines an ordinary multi-stage stochastic programming with uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-boundary intervals. Upper- and lower-bound solution intervals for optimized water allocation targets and probabilistic water allocations and shortages are estimated under a baseline scenario and four water and agricultural policy future scenarios for an optimistic and a pessimistic attitude of the decision makers. In this work, the uncertainty of the random water inflows is incorporated through the simultaneous generation of stochastic equal-probability hydrologic scenarios at various inflow positions instead of using a scenario-tree approach in the original methodology.

  10. Early Cambrian wave-formed shoreline deposits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Glad, Aslaug Clemmensen; Pedersen, Gunver Krarup

    2017-01-01

    -preserved subaqueous dunes and wave ripples indicates deposition in a wave-dominated upper shoreface (littoral zone) environment, and the presence of interference ripples indicates that the littoral zone environment experienced water level fluctuations due to tides and/or changing meteorological conditions. Discoidal....... During this period, wave-formed shoreline sediments (the Vik Member, Hardeberga Formation) were deposited on Bornholm and are presently exposed at Strøby quarry. The sediments consist of fine- and medium-grained quartz-cemented arenites in association with a few silt-rich mudstones. The presence of well...

  11. Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2012-01-01

    A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

  12. The changing shoreline of Suriname (South America)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augustinus, P.G.E.F.

    1978-01-01

    The Surinam coast forms part of the extensive tropical mud coast between the Amazon River (Brazil) and the Orinoco River (Venezuela). It is classified as a low to medium energy coast. A substantially longshore supply of mud originates from the Amazon River. The fine grained sediment (pelite) is

  13. Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

    OpenAIRE

    A. K. Basheer; H. Lu; A. Omer; A. B. Ali; A. M. S. Abdelgader

    2016-01-01

    The fate of seasonal river ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge of the river, which are related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore, the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Dinder River bas...

  14. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File

  15. Combining pre-spill shoreline segmentation data and shoreline assessment tools to support early response management and planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.; Owens, E.H.; Martin, V.; Laforest, S.

    2003-01-01

    Several organizations, such as Environment Canada and the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, are developing or refining pre-spill databases containing information about physical shoreline characteristics. Automated links between these pre-spill shoreline characteristic databases and computerized shoreline assessment tools were recently created by Environment Canada (Quebec and Ontario regions). The tools, which use Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, can be used for planning and documenting support needed for shoreline cleanup operations. A training exercise, designed to evaluate a spill management system integrating the Quebec region pre-spill shoreline database and the ShoreAssess R shoreline assessment system, was conducted at Vercheres, Quebec in October 2002 by Eastern Canada Response Corporation. The testing took place during the planning stage of the early phases of a spill, namely after the first over-flight. The computerized shoreline assessment tools made it possible to evaluate the length and type of shoreline that would potentially be impacted by oil. The tools also made it possible to assess the shoreline treatment methods most likely to be used, and evaluate the probable duration of the cleanup operation. The information would have to be available in time to be considered during the planning activities. The training exercise demonstrated that the integration of the databases is a valuable tool during the early phases of an oil spill response. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  16. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model.First the length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a stability analysis. Next the further evolution from the linear to the fully non-linear regime is described...

  17. NOAA's Shoreline Survey Maps - Raster NOAA-NOS Shoreline Survey Manuscripts that define the shoreline and alongshore natural and man-made features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOS coastal survey maps (often called t-sheet or tp-sheet maps) are special use planimetric or topographic maps that precisely define the shoreline and alongshore...

  18. Waves Generated by Asteroid Impacts and Their Hazard Consequences on The Shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzedine, S. M.; Miller, P. L.; Dearborn, D. S.

    2014-12-01

    We have performed numerical simulations of a hypothetical asteroid impact onto the ocean in support of an emergency preparedness, planning, and management exercise. We addressed the scenario from asteroid entry; to ocean impact (splash rim); to wave generation, propagation, and interaction with the shoreline. For the analysis we used GEODYN, a hydrocode, to simulate the impact and generate the source wave for the large-scale shallow water wave program, SWWP. Using state-of-the-art, high-performance computing codes we simulated three impact areas — two are located on the West Coast near Los Angeles's shoreline and the San Francisco Bay, respectively, and the third is located in the Gulf of Mexico, with a possible impact location between Texas and Florida. On account of uncertainty in the exact impact location within the asteroid risk corridor, we examined multiple possibilities for impact points within each area. Uncertainty in the asteroid impact location was then convolved and represented as uncertainty in the shoreline flooding zones. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and partially funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL under tracking code 12-ERD-005.

  19. Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Smith, Theresa L.; Knisel, Julia M.; Sampson, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 through 2009. The study area includes the Massachusetts coastal region from Salisbury to Westport, including Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Elizabeth Islands. New statewide shoreline data were developed for approximately 1,804 kilometers (1,121 miles) of shoreline using color aerial orthoimagery from 2008 and 2009 and topographic lidar from 2007. The shoreline data were integrated with existing historical shoreline data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to compute long- (about 150 years) and short-term (about 30 years) rates of shoreline change. A linear regression method was used to calculate long- and short-term rates of shoreline change at 26,510 transects along the Massachusetts coast. In locations where shoreline data were insufficient to use the linear regression method, short-term rates were calculated using an end-point method. Long-term rates of shoreline change are calculated with (LTw) and without (LTwo) shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 to examine the effect of removing these data on measured rates of change. Regionally averaged rates are used to assess the general characteristics of the two-rate computations, and we find that (1) the rates of change for both LTw and LTwo are essentially the same; (2) including more data slightly reduces the uncertainty of the rate, which is expected as the number of shorelines increases; and (3) the data for the shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 are not outliers with respect to the long-term trend. These findings are true for regional

  20. Reservoir shorelines : a methodology for evaluating operational impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, M.; Braund-Read, J.; Musgrave, B. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    BC Hydro has been operating hydroelectric facilities for over a century in British Columbia. The integrity and stability of the shorelines and slopes bordering hydroelectric reservoirs is affected by changing water levels in the reservoir, natural processes of flooding, wind and wave action and modification of groundwater levels. Establishing setbacks landward of the shoreline are needed in order to protect useable shoreline property that may be at risk of flooding, erosion or instability due to reservoir operations. Many of the reservoirs in British Columbia are situated in steep, glaciated valleys with diverse geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions and a variety of eroding shorelines. As such, geotechnical studies are needed to determine the operational impacts on reservoir shorelines. Since the 1960s BC Hydro has been developing a methodology for evaluating reservoir impacts and determining the land around the reservoir perimeter that should remain as a right of way for operations while safeguarding waterfront development. The methodology was modified in the 1990s to include geomorphological and geological processes. However, uncertainties in the methodology still exist due to limited understanding of key issues such as rates of erosion and shoreline regression, immaturity of present day reservoir shorelines and impacts of climate change. 11 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  1. Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2016-01-01

    Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

  2. SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF SHORELINE CHANGES IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2011-12-05

    Dec 5, 2011 ... The study recommended periodic monitoring of the coastal area on monthly and yearly bases. Keywords: Shoreline, GIS, Remote sensing, Bonny Island, Water transport, .... imported to Arcview GIS 3.3 for enhancement.

  3. Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Harden, E. Lynne; Wallendorf, Louise

    2011-01-01

    Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.

  4. Research on bioremediation of oil polluted shorelines in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.

    1995-01-01

    Marine bioremediation research in Norway has been directed towards the use of fertilizers on arctic shorelines and ice infested waters. In addition from the focus on fertilizers, the research has paid considerable attention to nutrient dynamics, and the influence of microfauna such as bacterial and fungal grazers on the dynamics of macronutrients. The interactions between microbial and physical processes on the shorelines, between photochemical processes and nutrient dynamics, have also been addressed. 29 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  6. Multidecadal shoreline changes of atoll islands in the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of continued sea level rise. One of the most commonly predicted outcomes of continued sea level rise is widespread and chronic shoreline erosion. Despite the widespread implications of predicted erosion, the decadal scale changes of atoll island shorelines are poorly resolved. The Marshall Islands is one of only four countries where the majority of inhabited land is comprised of reef and atoll islands. Consisting of 29 atolls and 5 mid-ocean reef islands, the Marshall Islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. A detailed analysis of shoreline change on over 300 islands on 10 atolls was undertaken using historic aerial photos (1945-1978) and modern high resolution satellite imagery (2004-2012). Results highlight the complex and dynamic nature of atoll islands, with significant shifts in shoreline position observed over the period of analysis. Results suggest shoreline accretion is the dominant mode of change on the islands studied, often associated with a net increase in vegetated island area. However, considerable inter- and intra-atoll variability exists with regards to shoreline stability. Findings are discussed with respect to island morphodynamics and potential hazard mitigation and planning responses within atoll settings.

  7. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J

    2018-03-29

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines' deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines' deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  8. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  9. Biological conditions of shorelines following the Exxon Valdez spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoker, S.W.; Neff, J.M.; Schroeder, T.R.; McCormick, D.M.

    1993-01-01

    This report is based primarily on survey results from Prince William Sound, where most of the heavy shoreline oiling occurred. Although not strictly quantitative, the shoreline surveys provide an unprecedented, broad base of professional observations covering the entire spill-affected area from 1989 through 1992 by which to evaluate spill impacts and recovery. Shoreline surveys documented that the extent of shoreline oiling declined substantially from 1989 to 1992. In 1989, oil was found on about 16 percent of the 3,000 miles of shoreline in Prince William Sound; by the spring of 1991, oil was found on only about 2 percent of the shoreline; and by May of 1992, on only 0.2 percent. In all years, most of this oil was located in the biologically least productive upper intertidal and supratidal zones. In both 1991 and 1992, small, isolated pockets of subsurface oil were found on some boulder/cobble beaches. Most of these deposits were also located in the upper intertidal and were usually buried beneath clean sediments. In almost all cases, the condition of intertidal biological communities improved correspondingly from 1989 to 1992. By the spring of 1991, recovery appeared to be well under way on virtually all previously oiled shores, with species composition, abundance, and diversity levels usually comparable to those of nearby shores that were not oiled in 1989. Recruitment of intertidal plants and animals was observed as early as the summer of 1989, and increasingly through 1991 and 1992. Recruitment was evident even in areas with remnant deposits of surface and subsurface oil, indicating that toxicity levels of the oil had declined substantially and that, in most cases, the residual oil no longer interfered with biological recovery. Observations of birds and marine mammals on or near shorelines surveyed during 1991 and 1992 confirmed that species present before the spill were still present and were feeding and reproducing in areas affected by oil in 1989

  10. Scenario Analysis: Evaluating Biodiversity Response to Forecasted Land-Use Change in the San Pedro River Basin (U.S.-Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions...

  11. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  12. An integrated approach to shoreline mapping for spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; LeBlanc, S.R.; Percy, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    A desktop mapping package was introduced which has the capability to provide consistent and standardized application of mapping and data collection/generation techniques. Its application in oil spill cleanup was discussed. The data base can be updated easily as new information becomes available. This provides a response team with access to a wide range of information that would otherwise be difficult to obtain. Standard terms and definitions and shoreline segmentation procedures are part of the system to describe the shore-zone character and shore-zone oiling conditions. The program that is in place for Atlantic Canada involves the integration of (1) Environment Canada's SCAT methodology in pre-spill data generation, (2) shoreline segmentation, (3) response management by objectives, (4) Environment Canada's national sensitivity mapping program, and (5) Environment Canada's field guide for the protection and treatment of oiled shorelines. 7 refs., 6 figs

  13. Post-glacial inflation-deflation cycles, tilting, and faulting in the Yellowstone Caldera based on Yellowstone Lake shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Kenneth L.; Cannon, Kenneth P.; Meyer, Grant A.; Trebesch, Matthew J.; Watts, Raymond D.

    2002-01-01

    The Yellowstone caldera, like many other later Quaternary calderas of the world, exhibits dramatic unrest. Between 1923 and 1985, the center of the Yellowstone caldera rose nearly one meter along an axis between its two resurgent domes (Pelton and Smith, 1979, Dzurisin and Yamashita, 1987). From 1985 until 1995-6, it subsided at about two cm/yr (Dzurisin and others, 1990). More recent radar interferometry studies show renewed inflation of the northeastern resurgent dome between 1995 and 1996; this inflation migrated to the southwestern resurgent dome from 1996 to 1997 (Wicks and others, 1998). We extend this record back in time using dated geomorphic evidence of postglacial Yellowstone Lake shorelines around the northern shore, and Yellowstone River levels in the outlet area. We date these shorelines using carbon isotopic and archeological methods. Following Meyer and Locke (1986) and Locke and Meyer (1994), we identify the modern shoreline as S1 (1.9 ? 0.3 m above the lake gage datum), map paleoshoreline terraces S2 to S6, and infer that the prominent shorelines were cut during intracaldera uplift episodes that produced rising water levels. Doming along the caldera axis reduces the gradient of the Yellowstone River from Le Hardys Rapids to the Yellowstone Lake outlet and ultimately causes an increase in lake level. The 1923-1985 doming is part of a longer uplift episode that has reduced the Yellowstone River gradient to a ?pool? with a drop of only 0.25 m over most of this 5 km reach. We also present new evidence that doming has caused submergence of some Holocene lake and river levels. Shoreline S5 is about 14 m above datum and estimated to be ~12.6 ka, because it post-dates a large hydrothermal explosion deposit from the Mary Bay area (MB-II) that occurred ~13 ka. S4 formed about 8 m above datum ~10.7 ka as dated by archeology and 14C, and was accompanied by offset on the Fishing Bridge fault. About 9.7 ka, the Yellowstone River eroded the ?S-meander?, followed

  14. A Methology for Assessing the Regional Transportation Energy Demands of Different Spatial Residential Development Scenarios: a Case Study for the Upper Housatonic River Basin, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oski, J. A.; Fabos, J. G.; Gross, M.

    1982-01-01

    A method is suggested whereby regional landscape planning efforts can be aided by the use of a geographic information system to determine sites for more energy efficient residential and mixed use developments within a study area. The location of land parcels suited for residential and mixed land use developments in the Upper Housatonic River Basin Study Area in Berkshire County, Massachusetts is described as well as the three development options. Significant steps in the procedure are discussed and the computation of the transportation energy requirement is elaborated.

  15. Scenario-Based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Watershed Hydrology in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated hydrological impacts of potential climate and land use changes in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. The future climate data for the simulation with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT were prepared using a dynamical downscaling method. The future land uses were simulated with the Dynamic Land Use System (DLS model by establishing Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL model for six land use types. In 2006–2030, land uses in the basin will experience a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in grassland, and a great decrease in unused land. Besides, the simulation results showed that in comparison to those during 1981–2005 the temperature and precipitation during 2006–2030 will change by +0.8°C and +10.8%, respectively. The land use change and climate change will jointly make the water yield change by +8.5%, while they will separately make the water yield change by −1.8% and +9.8%, respectively. The predicted large increase in future precipitation and the corresponding decrease in unused land will have substantial impacts on the watershed hydrology, especially on the surface runoff and streamflow. Therefore, to mitigate negative hydrological impacts and utilize positive impacts, both land use and climate changes should be considered in water resource planning for the Heihe River Basin.

  16. National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2017-09-25

    Long-term rates of shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to the Icy Cape region of northern Alaska, have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Short-term shoreline change rates are reported for the first time. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included two shoreline positions at a given location. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. The average rates of this report have a reduced amount of uncertainty compared to those presented in the first assessment for this region.

  17. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes

  18. Archaeological sites along the Gujarat coast: Proxies to decipher the past shoreline

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vora, K.H.; Gaur, A; Sundaresh

    on northwestern Saurashtra coast presents a classical case of shoreline shift in recent past. The paper discusses the archaeological evidences to decipher the past shoreline of the Saurashtra region...

  19. 78 FR 33051 - Non-Rock Alternatives to Shoreline Protection Demonstration Project (LA-16) Iberia, Jefferson...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-03

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Natural Resources Conservation Service Non-Rock Alternatives to...-Rock Alternatives to Shoreline Protection Demonstration Project (LA-16), Iberia, Jefferson, and... and environmental limitations preclude the use of rock structures. The shoreline protection systems...

  20. 15 CFR 923.25 - Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning... erosion/mitigation planning. (a) The management program must include a planning process for assessing the... planning process may be within the broader context of coastal hazard mitigation planning. (b) The basic...

  1. Pre-spill shoreline mapping in Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; Lamarche, A.; Reimer, P.D.; Marchant, S.O.; O'Brien, D.K.

    2003-01-01

    A long-term shoreline mapping program has been initiated in Prince William Sound, Alaska, to generate pre-spill data to assist in the planning activities for oil spill response in the area. Low-altitude aerial videotape surveys and video images form the basis for the mapping effort. The coast was initially divided into alongshore segments. The physical shore-zone is relatively homogeneous within each segment. A pre-spill Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) database, using the ShoreData software, was created based on this initial detailed mapping. The SCAT field teams are therefore equipped with a detailed analysis of the shore-zone character. The same information was also used to develop a separate database for use by planning and response operations groups. The data is entered into the Graphical Resource Database (GRD), and a Geographic Information System (GIS). A simplified characterization of the primary features of each segment is then made available through interpretation of the data. In the event of an oil spill, the SCAT data in the ShoreData files can be combined with field data on shoreline oiling conditions using a second software package called ShoreAccess R which provides summaries of the main parameters required by the planning group. It can also be used as a data storage and management tool. As part of this program, more than 1700 kilometres of shoreline in Prince William Sound have already been mapped. 24 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  2. Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citron, Robert I.; Manga, Michael; Hemingway, Douglas J.

    2018-03-01

    Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines’ deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines’ deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

  3. Effects of shoreline erosion on infrastructure development along the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... coastal environment and affected the socio-economic life of local populations, threatened cultural heritage and hindered coastal tourism development. This paper assessed the extent of shoreline recession and its effects on buildings and infrastructure along Ghana's coastline through a study of the Nkontompo Community ...

  4. Shoreline stability in the vicinity of Cochin Harbour

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Vethamony, P.

    , showing stability over a period of one year. The growth of shoreline north of Cochin harbour channel takes place at the cost of sediment that should have otherwise by-passed the estuarine mouth. During the southwest monsoon the development of opposing...

  5. Subtidal Bathymetric Changes by Shoreline Armoring Removal and Restoration Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, J.

    2016-12-01

    The Salish Sea, a region with a diverse coastline, is altered by anthropogenic shoreline modifications such as seawalls. In recent years, local organizations have moved to restore these shorelines. Current research monitors the changes restoration projects have on the upper beach, lower beach, and intertidal, however little research exists to record possible negative effects on the subtidal. The purpose of this research is to utilize multibeam sonar bathymetric data to analyze possible changes to the seafloor structure of the subtidal in response to shoreline modification and to investigate potential ecosystem consequences of shoreline alteration. The subtidal is home to several species including eelgrass (Zostera marina). Eelgrass is an important species in Puget Sound as it provides many key ecosystem functions including providing habitat for a wide variety of organisms, affecting the physics of waves, and sediment transport in the subtidal. Thus bathymetric changes could impact eelgrass growth and reduce its ability to provide crucial ecosystem services. Three Washington state study sites of completed shoreline restoration projects were used to generate data from areas of varied topographic classification, Seahurst Park in Burien, the Snohomish County Nearshore Restoration Project in Everett, and Cornet Bay State Park on Whidbey Island. Multibeam sonar data was acquired using a Konsberg EM 2040 system and post-processed in Caris HIPS to generate a base surface of one-meter resolution. It was then imported into the ArcGIS software suite for the generation of spatial metrics. Measurements of change were calculated through a comparison of historical and generated data. Descriptive metrics generated included, total elevation change, percent area changed, and a transition matrix of positive and negative change. Additionally, pattern metrics such as, surface roughness, and Bathymetric Position Index (BPI), were calculated. The comparison of historical data to new data

  6. Decision support for the management of water resources at Sub-middle of the São Francisco river basin in Brazil using integrated hydro-economic modeling and scenarios for land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, M. G. A.; Souza da Silva, G.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models can measure the economic effects of different operating rules, environmental restrictions, ecosystems services, technical constraints and institutional constraints. Furthermore, water allocation can be improved by considering economical criteria's. Likewise, climate and land use change can be analyzed to provide resilience. We developed and applied a hydro-economic optimization model to determine the optimal water allocation of main users in the Lower-middle São Francisco River Basin in Northeast (NE) Brazil. The model uses demand curves for the irrigation projects, small farmers and human supply, rather than fixed requirements for water resources. This study analyzed various constraints and operating alternatives for the installed hydropower dams in economic terms. A seven-year period (2000-2006) with water scarcity in the past has been selected to analyze the water availability and the associated optimal economic water allocation. The used constraints are technical, socioeconomic and environmental. The economically impacts of scenarios like prioritizing human consumption, impacts of the implementation of the São Francisco river transposition, human supply without high distribution losses, environmental hydrographs, forced reservoir level control, forced reduced reservoir capacity, alteration of lower flow restriction were analyzed. The results in this period show that scarcity costs related ecosystem service and environmental constraints are significant, and have major impacts (increase of scarcity cost) for consumptive users like irrigation projects. In addition, institutional constraints such as prioritizing human supply, minimum release limits downstream of the reservoirs and the implementation of the transposition project impact the costs and benefits of the two main economic sectors (irrigation and power generation) in the region of the Lower-middle of the São Francisco river basin. Scarcity costs for irrigation users generally

  7. 36 CFR 327.30 - Shoreline Management on Civil Works Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... ADMINISTERED BY THE CHIEF OF ENGINEERS § 327.30 Shoreline Management on Civil Works Projects. (a) Purpose. The... this regulation, shoreline management plans are not required for those projects where construction was... approval, one copy of each project Shoreline Management Plan will be forwarded to HQUSACE (CECW-ON) WASH DC...

  8. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  9. A New Hydrogeological Research Site in the Willamette River Floodplain

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Willamette River is a ninth-order tributary of the Columbia which passes through a productive and populous region in northwest Oregon. Where unconstrained by shoreline revetments, the floodplain of this river is a high-energy, dynamic system which supports a variety of ripari...

  10. Quantification of shoreline change along Hatteras Island, North Carolina: Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, 1978-2002, and associated vector shoreline data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel E.

    2015-01-01

    Shoreline change spanning twenty-four years was assessed along the coastline of Cape Hatteras National Seashore, at Hatteras Island, North Carolina. The shorelines used in the analysis were generated from georeferenced historical aerial imagery and are used to develop shoreline change rates for Hatteras Island, from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras. A total of 14 dates of aerial photographs ranging from 1978 through 2002 were obtained from the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, North Carolina, and scanned to generate digital imagery. The digital imagery was georeferenced and high water line shorelines (interpreted from the wet/dry line) were digitized from each date to produce a time series of shorelines for the study area. Rates of shoreline change were calculated for three periods: the full span of the time series, 1978 through 2002, and two approximately decadal subsets, 1978–89 and 1989–2002.

  11. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moren, L.; Paasse, T.

    2001-08-01

    In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

  12. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  13. Excavations at the Buller River Site (K29/8), January 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacomb, C.; Tucker, B.; Walter, R.

    2004-01-01

    The Buller River Site (K29/8) is located on the south (true left) bank of the Buller, or Kawatiri, River directly across from Westport and approximately one kilometre from the present shoreline. This report describes the excavations at Buller River in February 2004, outlines the results to date and canvasses options for future research. 12 refs., 11 figs

  14. National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; List, Jeffrey H.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long

  15. A decision support system to find the best water allocation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin in future scenarios of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Vasto-Terrientes, L.; Kumar, V.; Chao, T.-C.; Valls, A.

    2016-03-01

    Global change refers to climate changes, but also demographic, technological and economic changes. Predicted water scarcity will be critical in the coastal Mediterranean region, especially for provision to mid-sized and large-sized cities. This paper studies the case of the city of Tarragona, located at the Mediterranean area of north-eastern Spain (Catalonia). Several scenarios have been constructed to evaluate different sectorial water allocation policies to mitigate the water scarcity induced by global change. Future water supply and demand predictions have been made for three time spans. The decision support system presented is based on the outranking model, which constructs a partial pre-order based on pairwise preference relations among all the possible actions. The system analyses a hierarchical structure of criteria, including environmental and economic criteria. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources, inter-basin water transfer and sectorial demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors. Results indicate that the most appropriate water allocation strategies depend on the severity of the global change effects.

  16. Using remote sensing to monitor past changes and assess future scenarios for the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta waterways, California USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Maria J.; Hestir, Erin; Khanna, Shruti; Ustin, Susan L.

    2017-04-01

    Historically, deltas have been extensively affected both by natural processes and human intervention. Thus, understanding drivers, predicting impacts and optimizing solutions to delta problems requires a holistic approach spanning many sectors, disciplines and fields of expertise. Deltas are ideal model systems to understand the effects of the interaction between social and ecological domains, as they face unprecedented disturbances and threats to their biological and ecological sustainability. The challenge for deltas is to meet the goals of supporting biodiversity and ecosystem processes while also provisioning fresh water resources for human use. We provide an overview of the last 150 years of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta, where we illustrate the parallel process of an increase in disturbances, by particularly zooming in on the current cascading effects of invasive species on geophysical and biological processes. Using remote sensing data coupled with in situ measurements of water quality, turbidity, and species presence we show how the spread and persistence of aquatic invasive species affects sedimentation processes and ecosystem functioning. Our results show that the interactions between the biological and physical conditions in the Delta affect the trajectory of dominance by native and invasive aquatic plant species. Trends in growth and community characteristics associated with predicted impacts of climate change (sea level rise, warmer temperatures, changes in the hydrograph with high winter and low summer outflows) do not provide simple predictions. Individually, the impact of specific environmental changes on the biological components can be predicted, however it is the complex interactions of biological communities with the suite of physical changes that make predictions uncertain. Systematic monitoring is critical to provide the data needed to document and understand change of these delta systems, and to identify successful adaptation

  17. Wave energy fluxes and multi-decadal shoreline changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart

    2014-01-01

    Spatial patterns of multidecadal shoreline changes in two microtidal, low-energetic embayments of southern Zealand, Denmark, were investigated by using the directional distribution of wave energy fluxes. The sites include a barrier island system attached to moraine bluffs, and a recurved spit...... variability of directional distributions of wave energy fluxes furthermore outlined potential sediment sources and sinks for the evolution of the barrier island system and for the evolution of the recurved spit....... adjacent to a cliff coast. The barrier island system is characterized by cross-shore translation and by an alignment of the barrier alongshore alternating directions of barrier-spit progradation in a bidirectional wave field. The recurved spit adjacent to the cliff coast experienced shoreline rotation...

  18. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  19. Impacts of shoreline erosion on coastal ecosystems in Songkhla Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipaporn Chusrinuan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Songkhla Province is located on the eastern coast of the southern Thai Peninsula, bordering the Gulf of Thailand for approximately 107 km. Most of the basin’s foreshores have been extensively developed for housing, tourism and shrimp farming. The beaches are under deteriorating impacts, often causing sediment transport which leads to an unnaturally high erosion rate. This natural phenomenon is considered to be a critical problem in the coastal areas affected by the hazard of coastal infrastructure and reduced beach esthetics for recreation. In this study, shoreline changes were compared between 1975 and 2006 using aerial photographs and Landsat imageries using Geographic Information System (GIS. The results revealed that 18.5 km2 of the coastal areas were altered during the period. Of this, 17.3 km2 suffered erosion and 1.2 km2were subjected to accretion. The most significant changes occurred between 1975-2006. Shoreline erosion was found at Ban Paktrae, Ranot District, with an average erosion rate of 5.3 m/year, while accretion occurred at Laem Samila, MuangSongkhla District with an average accretion rate of 2.04 m/year. The occurrences of shoreline erosion have contributed to the degradation of coastal soil and water quality, destruction of beach and mangrove forests, loss of human settlements and livelihood.These processes have led to deterioration of the quality of life of the residents. Prevention and mitigation measures to lessen economic and social impacts due to shoreline erosion are discussed.

  20. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

  1. Canadian coastal environments, shoreline processes, and oil spill cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1994-03-01

    The coastal zone is a dynamic environment, so that in developing practical and effective oil spill response strategies it is necessary to understand the forces that contribute to shore-zone processs. The coasts of Canada encompass a wide range of environments and are characterized by a variety of shoreline types that include the exposed, resistant cliffs of eastern Newfoundland and the sheltered marshes of the Beaufort Sea. A report is presented to provide an understanding of the dynamics and physical processes as they vary on the different coasts of Canada, including the Great Lakes. An outline of the general character and processes on a regional basis describes the coastal environments and introduces the literature that can be consulted for more specific information. The likely fate and persistence of oil that reaches the shoreline is discussed to provide the framework for development of spill response strategies and for the selection of appropriate shoreline cleanup or treatment countermeasures. Lessons learned from recent experience with major oil spills and field experiments are integrated into the discussion. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each of the four sections of this report. 502 refs., 5 figs

  2. Monitoring oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilfillan, E.S.; Page, D.S.; Harner, E.J.; Boehm, P.D.; Stoker, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Three types of shoreline monitoring programs were employed to evaluate the recovery of the ecological communities of Prince William Sound (PWS) shorelines after the oil spill: (a) Extensive shoreline surveys conducted (1989--1992) over much of the oiled shoreline to define extent of shoreline oiling and to assess biological conditions; (b) Detailed sampling in 1989 at nonrandomly chosen locations representing a range of oiling conditions (c) Comprehensive shoreline ecology program initiated in 1990 to assess shoreline recovery in Prince William Sound using (1) a rigorous stratified random sampling study design with 64 sites representing 4 shoreline habitats and 4 oiling levels (unoiled, light, moderate, heavy); (2) periodic sampling at 12 nonrandomly chosen sites of particular concern. Biological communities were analyzed to detect differences due to oiling in each of 16 habitat/tide zone combinations. Following the spill, populations of all major species survived as sources for recolonization. Recruitment to oiled shores began in summer 1989. By 1990, shoreline biota in PWS had largely recovered. Estimates of shoreline recovery (biological community indistinguishable from reference) ranged from 91% based on univariate analysis of standard community parameters to 73% based on multivariate correspondence analysis

  3. Drivers of coastal shoreline change: case study of hon dat coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  4. Power Scaling of the Mainland Shoreline of the Atlantic Coast of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasko, E.; Barton, C. C.; Geise, G. R.; Rizki, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The fractal dimension of the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast of the United Stated from Maine to Homestead, FL has been measured in 1000 km increments using the box-counting method. The shoreline analyzed is the NOAA Medium Resolution Shoreline (https://shoreline.noaa.gov/data/datasheets/medres.html). The shoreline was reconstituted into sequentially numbered X-Y coordinate points in UTM Zone 18N which are spaced 50 meters apart, as measured continuously along the shoreline. We created a MATLAB computer code to measure the fractal dimension by box counting while "walking" along the shoreline. The range of box sizes is 0.7 to 450 km. The fractal dimension ranges from 1.0 to1.5 along the mainland shoreline of the Atlantic coast. The fractal dimension is compared with beach particle sizes (bedrock outcrop, cobbles, pebbles, sand, clay), tidal range, rate of sea level rise, rate and direction of vertical crustal movement, and wave energy, looking for correlation with the measured fractal dimensions. The results show a correlation between high fractal dimensions (1.3 - 1.4) and tectonically emergent coasts, and low fractal dimensions (1.0 - 1.2) along submergent and stable coastal regions. Fractal dimension averages 1.3 along shorelines with shoreline protection structures such as seawalls, jetties, and groins.

  5. Drivers of Coastal Shoreline Change: Case Study of Hon Dat Coast, Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hai-Hoa; McAlpine, Clive; Pullar, David; Leisz, Stephen Joseph; Galina, Gramotnev

    2015-05-01

    Coastal shorelines are naturally dynamic, shifting in response to coastal geomorphological processes. Globally, land use change associated with coastal urban development and growing human population pressures is accelerating coastal shoreline change. In southern Vietnam, coastal erosion currently is posing considerable risks to shoreline land use and coastal inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to quantify historical shoreline changes along the Hon Dat coast between 1995 and 2009, and to document the relationships between coastal mangrove composition, width and density, and rates of shoreline change. The generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the major biophysical and land-use factors influencing shoreline change rates. Most significant drivers of the rates of change are cutting of mangroves, the dominant mangrove genus, changes in adjacent shoreline land use, changes of shoreline land cover, and width of fringing mangroves. We suggest that a possible and inexpensive strategy for robust mangrove shoreline defense is direct mangrove planting to promote mangrove density with the presence of breakwater structures. In the shorter term, construction of coastal barriers such as fence-structured melaleuca poles in combination with mangrove restoration schemes could help retain coastal sediments and increase the elevation of the accretion zone, thereby helping to stabilize eroding fringe shorelines. It also is recommended that implementation of a system of payments for mangrove ecosystem services and the stronger regulation of mangrove cutting and unsustainable land-use change to strengthen the effectiveness of mangrove conservation programs and coastal land-use management.

  6. Application of RAD-BCG calculator to Hanford's 300 area shoreline characterization dataset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Ernest J.; Poston, Ted M.; Tiller, Brett L.; Patton, Gene W.

    2003-07-01

    Abstract. In 2001, a multi-agency study was conducted to characterize potential environmental effects from radiological and chemical contaminants on the near-shore environment of the Columbia River at the 300 Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site. Historically, the 300 Area was the location of nuclear fuel fabrication and was the main location for research and development activities from the 1940s until the late 1980s. During past waste handling practices uranium, copper, and other heavy metals were routed to liquid waste streams and ponds near the Columbia River shoreline. The Washington State Department of Health and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Surface Environmental Surveillance Project sampled various environmental components including river water, riverbank spring water, sediment, fishes, crustaceans, bivalve mollusks, aquatic insects, riparian vegetation, small mammals, and terrestrial invertebrates for analyses of radiological and chemical constituents. The radiological analysis results for water and sediment were used as initial input into the RAD-BCG Calculator. The RAD-BCG Calculator, a computer program that uses an Excel® spreadsheet and Visual Basic® software, showed that maximum radionuclide concentrations measured in water and sediment were lower than the initial screening criteria for concentrations to produce dose rates at existing or proposed limits. Radionuclide concentrations measured in biota samples were used to calculate site-specific bioaccumulation coefficients (Biv) to test the utility of the RAD-BCG-Calculator’s site-specific screening phase. To further evaluate site-specific effects, the default Relative Biological Effect (RBE) for internal alpha particle emissions was reduced by half and the program’s kinetic/allometric calculation approach was initiated. The subsequent calculations showed the initial RAD-BCG Calculator results to be conservative, which is appropriate for screening purposes.

  7. Monitoring shoreline environment of Paradip, east coast of India using remote sensing

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Shrivastava, D.; Vethamony, P.

    -raey et al. 8 used remote sensing for detecting beach erosion and ac- cretion along Damietta Port, Egypt. Narayana and Priju 9 studied the shoreline changes along the central Kerala coast using satellite images. Shoreline-change mapping was carried... and detecting long-term change in the entire coastline. Meijerink 11 and Rao 12 studied the dynamic geomor- phology of Mahanadi delta and problems of coastal dyna- mics and shoreline changes which arose after the construction of Paradip port. Rupali 13...

  8. COREXIT 9580 shoreline cleaner: Development, application, and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canevari, G.P.; Fiocco, R.J.; Lessard, R.R.; Fingas, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper will describe research on chemical beach cleaners for treatment of oiled shorelines that was initiated in support of the cleaning activities in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Valdez oil spill in March 1989. The concept for using beach cleaners for shoreline cleanup is to apply a pre-soak to the weathered crude oil on shore and then flush with sea water to wash the oil into a boomed area for subsequent recovery. Criteria imposed on the use of chemical beach cleaners for the cleanup of the Valdez spill were: (1) effective rock cleaning agents should have very little or no toxicity to marine and terrestrial life, (2) there should be no dispersion of the oil washed from the shoreline into the water column; oil was to be recovered by techniques such as skimming or sorbents, and (3) the agents should be on the EPA National Contingency Plan (NCP) list. A laboratory-scale rock washing test was developed to measure cleaner effectiveness and dispersion. A large number of commercially available formulated products were evaluated, as well as development formulations. The commercial products included all of the available NCP-listed products which could function as cleaners. None of the commercial products completely satisfied all the requirements established by the agencies for beach cleaning. However, a new formula, called COREXIT 9580, consisting of two surfactants and a solvent was developed. It exhibited low fish toxicity, low dispersancy and effective rock cleaning capability. The paper reviews the laboratory and field testing to explore the potential use of the COREXIT 9580 to save and restore oiled vegetation

  9. Living shorelines enhanced the resilience of saltmarshes to Hurricane Matthew (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Carter S; Puckett, Brandon; Gittman, Rachel K; Peterson, Charles H

    2018-06-01

    Nature-based solutions, such as living shorelines, have the potential to restore critical ecosystems, enhance coastal sustainability, and increase resilience to natural disasters; however, their efficacy during storm events compared to traditional hardened shorelines is largely untested. This is a major impediment to their implementation and promotion to policy-makers and homeowners. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated rock sill living shorelines as compared to natural marshes and hardened shorelines (i.e., bulkheads) in North Carolina, USA for changes in surface elevation, Spartina alterniflora stem density, and structural damage from 2015 to 2017, including before and after Hurricane Matthew (2016). Our results show that living shorelines exhibited better resistance to landward erosion during Hurricane Matthew than bulkheads and natural marshes. Additionally, living shorelines were more resilient than hardened shorelines, as they maintained landward elevation over the two-year study period without requiring any repair. Finally, rock sill living shorelines were able to enhance S. alterniflora stem densities over time when compared to natural marshes. Our results suggest that living shorelines have the potential to improve coastal resilience while supporting important coastal ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Living Shoreline Designs in Urban Systems: Examples from New York and Baltimore Harbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doss, T.

    2017-12-01

    In the aftermath of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, there was a renewed interest in protecting our shorelines and restoring community resiliency by using natural and nature based features. We observed in the wake of these storms that those shorelines that had been protected by natural features sustained less damage. But how well can we mimic these natural features? And how do we determine which strategy is best along a given shoreline? A series of living shoreline pilot projects are presented, highlighting the design and construction for the different strategies and how they are being monitored and adapted to sea level rise.

  11. Variability and correlations of shoreline and dunes on the southern Baltic coast (CRS Lubiatowo, Poland)

    OpenAIRE

    Zbigniew Pruszak; Rafal Ostrowski; Jan Schönhofer

    2011-01-01

    The paper analyses the results of field investigations into the evolution of the shoreline and dune toe positions in a multi-bar,dissipative coastal zone. The correlations between the changes in the shoreline and the dune toe range from -0.4 to 0.8. It is most often the case that the dune toe is stable while the shoreline moves. Consistent cross-shore migration is slightly more likelyto happen than the divergent or convergent movements of both lines. Shoreline retreat and advance attain resp...

  12. Development of a practical methodology for integrating shoreline oil-holding capacity into modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, D.; French-McCay, D.; Rowe, J.; Michel, J.; Boufadel, M.; Li, H.

    2008-01-01

    The factors that influence the behaviour of oil in the aftermath of an oil spill on water include oil type and characteristics; oil thickness on the shoreline; time until shoreline impact; timing with regards to tides; weathering during and after the spill; and nearshore wave energy. The oil behaviour also depends on the shoreline characteristics, particularly porosity and permeability. The interactions of spilled oil with sediments on beaches must be well understood in order to model the oil spill trajectory, fate and risk. The movement of oil can be most accurately simulated if the algorithm incorporates an estimate of shoreline oil retention. This paper presented a literature review of relevant shoreline oiling studies and considered the relevance of study findings for inclusion in modelling. Survey data from a detailed shoreline cleanup assessment team (SCAT) were analyzed for patterns in oil penetration and oil-holding capacity by shoreline sediment type and oil type for potential use in modelling algorithms. A theoretical beach hydraulics model was then developed for use in a stochastic spill model. Gaps in information were identified, including the manner in which wave action and other environmental variables have an impact on the dynamic processes involved in shoreline oiling. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to estimate the amount of oil held by a shoreline upon impact to allow a trajectory model to more accurately project the total spread of oil. 27 refs., 13 tabs., 3 figs

  13. Shoreline change and potential sea level rise impacts in a climate hazardous location in southeast coast of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanthi, Marappan; Thirumurthy, Selvasekar; Samynathan, Muthusamy; Duraisamy, Muthusamy; Muralidhar, Moturi; Ashokkumar, Jangam; Vijayan, Koyadan Kizhakkedath

    2017-12-28

    Climate change impact on the environment makes the coastal areas vulnerable and demands the evaluation of such susceptibility. Historical changes in the shoreline positions and inundation based on projected sea-level scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m were assessed for Nagapattinam District, a low-lying coastal area in the southeast coast of India, using high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data; multi-dated Landsat satellite images of 1978, 1991, 2003, and 2015; and census data of 2011. Image processing, geographical information system, and digital shoreline analysis system methods were used in the study. The shoreline variation indicated that erosion rate varied at different time scales. The end point rate indicated the highest mean erosion of - 3.12 m/year, occurred in 73% of coast between 1978 and 1991. Weighted linear regression analysis revealed that the coast length of 83% was under erosion at a mean rate of - 2.11 m/year from 1978 to 2015. Sea level rise (SLR) impact indicated that the coastal area of about 14,122 ha from 225 villages and 31,318 ha from 272 villages would be permanently inundated for the SLR of 0.5 and 1 m, respectively, which includes agriculture, mangroves, wetlands, aquaculture, and forest lands. The loss of coastal wetlands and its associated productivity will severely threaten more than half the coastal population. Adaptation measures in people participatory mode, integrated into coastal zone management with a focus on sub-regional coastal activities, are needed to respond to the consequences of climate change.

  14. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Zaggia

    Full Text Available An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3. The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  15. Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaggia, Luca; Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfé, Giorgia; Scarpa, Gian Marco; Molinaroli, Emanuela; Parnell, Kevin Ellis; Rapaglia, John Paul; Gionta, Maria; Soomere, Tarmo

    2017-01-01

    An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3). The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

  16. Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Paasse, T. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-08-01

    In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

  17. Radiation dates of holocene shorelines in Peninsula Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjia, H.D.; Kigoshi, K.

    1977-01-01

    Fifteen newly determined radiocarbon dates indicate the presence of former shorelines up to 3 meters above present high tide level in the tectonically stable Peninsula of Malaysia. The sea level indicators consist of oysters in growth position (9 samples), molluscs in beach deposits (2), corals in growth position (3), and beachrock (1). In the Peninsula living oysters occur up to or slightly above high tide, modern beach deposits may occur as high as 1.5 meters above high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that high tide, and corals live up to low tide level. The literature shows that beachrock marks intertidal zones. Combined with seven previously published ages of raised shorelines in the region, strong evidence is presented for one or more high Holocene, eustatic sea level stands in the continental part of Southeast Asia. Periods of high sea levels occur between 2500 and 2900 yr BP, and between 4200 and 5700 yr BP. There is also some indication of high sea level between 8300 and 9500 yr BP. (author)

  18. Uplift of quaternary shorelines in eastern Patagonia: Darwin revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedoja, Kevin; Regard, Vincent; Husson, Laurent; Martinod, Joseph; Guillaume, Benjamin; Fucks, Enrique; Iglesias, Maximiliano; Weill, Pierre

    2011-04-01

    During his journey on the Beagle, Darwin observed the uniformity in the elevation of coastal Eastern Patagonia along more than 2000 km. More than one century later, the sequences of Quaternary shorelines of eastern Patagonia have been described and their deposits dated but not yet interpreted in terms of geodynamics. Consequently, we i) mapped the repartition of the Quaternary coastal sequences in Argentinean Patagonia, ii) secured accurate altitudes of shoreline angles associated with erosional morphologies (i.e. marine terraces and notches), iii) took into account previous chrono-stratigraphical interpretations in order to calculate mean uplift rates since ~ 440 ka (MIS 11) and proposed age ranges for the higher and older features (up to ~ 180 m), and iv) focused on the Last Interglacial Maximum terrace (MIS 5e) as the best constrained marine terrace (in terms of age and altitude) in order to use it as a tectonic benchmark to quantify uplift rates along the entire passive margin of Eastern South America. Our results show that the eastern Patagonia uplift is constant through time and twice the uplift of the rest of the South American margin. We suggest that the enhanced uplift along the eastern Patagonian coast that interested Darwin during his journey around South America on the Beagle could originate from the subduction of the Chile ridge and the associated dynamic uplift.

  19. Biological and ecological science for Wisconsin—A Great Lakes and Rivers State

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2018-03-06

    Wisconsin and natural resources go hand-in-hand. Tourism, which generates $19 billion annually and sustains about 200,000 jobs, depends on an abundance of lakes, rivers, shorelines, and woodlands for fishing, hunting, boating, and other outdoor recreation. Rivers and floodplains in the Upper Mississippi Basin, including the Mississippi River, are part of a five-State corridor that generates more than $300 billion annually and sustains millions of manufacturing, tourism, transportation, and agricultural jobs. Wisconsin also is a Great Lakes State with more than 800 miles of shoreline, and the fisheries of lakes Superior and Michigan deliver $185 million annually and provide thousands of jobs.

  20. Seasonal dynamics of the shoreline vegetation in the Zapatosa floodplain lake complex, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Schmidt-Mumm

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain lakes and associated wetlands in tropical dry climates are controlled by pronounced and severe seasonal hydrologic fluctuations. We examined the plant community response to a bimodal flooding pattern in the Zapatosa Floodplain Lake Complex (ZFLC, Northern Colombia. We measured floristic and quantitative change in four sampling periods emphasizing seasonal differences in plant abundance and life-form structure. Of 79 species identified in the lake complex, 52 were used to characterize eight community types via classification and ordination procedures. Results showed that community structure does not change significantly during the flooding/receding stages. But maximum drawdown phase significantly disrupts the aquatic community structure and the exposed shorelines become colonized by ruderal terrestrial plants. Early rainfalls at the beginning of the wet season are emphasized as an important feature of plant regeneration and community development. The general strategy of the ZFLC vegetation can be framed into the flood pulse concept of river-floodplain systems. Thus, plant communities are mainly responding to disturbances and destruction events imposed by extreme water level fluctuations. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (3: 1073-1097. Epub 2014 September 01.

  1. 33 CFR 100.T05-0443 - Safety Zone; Fireworks Display, Delaware River, New Hope, PA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., Delaware River, New Hope, PA. 100.T05-0443 Section 100.T05-0443 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD... Safety Zone; Fireworks Display, Delaware River, New Hope, PA. (a) Location. The safety zone will restrict.... Bridge located in New Hope, PA, and 400 ft east of the shoreline of New Hope, PA. (b) Regulations. (1) No...

  2. COMPARISON OF TWO SIMPLIFICATION METHODS FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM DIGITAL ORTHOPHOTO IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  3. Comparison of Two Simplification Methods for Shoreline Extraction from Digital Orthophoto Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Sen, A.; Selbesoglu, M. O.; Vārna, I.; Petersons, P.; Aykut, N. O.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    The coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to external influences. Coastal resources such as sand dunes, coral reefs and mangroves has vital importance to prevent coastal erosion. Human based effects also threats the coastal areas. Therefore, the change of coastal areas should be monitored. Up-to-date, accurate shoreline information is indispensable for coastal managers and decision makers. Remote sensing and image processing techniques give a big opportunity to obtain reliable shoreline information. In the presented study, NIR bands of seven 1:5000 scaled digital orthophoto images of Riga Bay-Latvia have been used. The Object-oriented Simple Linear Clustering method has been utilized to extract shoreline of Riga Bay. Bend and Douglas-Peucker methods have been used to simplify the extracted shoreline to test the effect of both methods. Photogrammetrically digitized shoreline has been taken as reference data to compare obtained results. The accuracy assessment has been realised by Digital Shoreline Analysis tool. As a result, the achieved shoreline by the Bend method has been found closer to the extracted shoreline with Simple Linear Clustering method.

  4. Integrated Shoreline Extraction Approach with Use of Rasat MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, N.; Oy, S.; Erdem, F.; Şeker, D. Z.; Bayram, B.

    2017-09-01

    Shorelines are complex ecosystems and highly important socio-economic environments. They may change rapidly due to both natural and human-induced effects. Determination of movements along the shoreline and monitoring of the changes are essential for coastline management, modeling of sediment transportation and decision support systems. Remote sensing provides an opportunity to obtain rapid, up-to-date and reliable information for monitoring of shoreline. In this study, approximately 120 km of Antalya-Kemer shoreline which is under the threat of erosion, deposition, increasing of inhabitants and urbanization and touristic hotels, has been selected as the study area. In the study, RASAT pansharpened and SENTINEL-1A SAR images have been used to implement proposed shoreline extraction methods. The main motivation of this study is to combine the land/water body segmentation results of both RASAT MS and SENTINEL-1A SAR images to improve the quality of the results. The initial land/water body segmentation has been obtained using RASAT image by means of Random Forest classification method. This result has been used as training data set to define fuzzy parameters for shoreline extraction from SENTINEL-1A SAR image. Obtained results have been compared with the manually digitized shoreline. The accuracy assessment has been performed by calculating perpendicular distances between reference data and extracted shoreline by proposed method. As a result, the mean difference has been calculated around 1 pixel.

  5. Comparing Fuzzy Sets and Random Sets to Model the Uncertainty of Fuzzy Shorelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewi, Ratna Sari; Bijker, Wietske; Stein, Alfred

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses uncertainty modelling of shorelines by comparing fuzzy sets and random sets. Both methods quantify extensional uncertainty of shorelines extracted from remote sensing images. Two datasets were tested: pan-sharpened Pleiades with four bands (Pleiades) and pan-sharpened Pleiades

  6. TOXICITY TRENDS DURING AN OIL SPILL BIOREMEDIATION EXPERIMENT ON A SANDY SHORELINE IN DELAWARE, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    A 13-week, refereed, inter-agency toxicity testing program involving five bioassay methods was used to document the effectiveness of shoreline bioremediation to accelerate toxicity reduction of an oiled sandy shoreline at Fowler Beach, Delaware, USA. The study was part of an inte...

  7. Impact of an offshore wind farm on wave conditions and shoreline development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik Damgaard; Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn; Deigaard, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    the shoreline’s sensitivity to the distance from the OWF to the shoreline was studied. The effect of the reduced wind speed inside and on the lee side of the offshore wind farm was incorporated in a parameterized way in a spectral wind wave model. The shoreline impact was studied with a one-line model....

  8. Field guide for the protection and cleanup of oiled Arctic shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1996-01-01

    Practical suggestions for the protection, treatment and cleanup of oiled shorelines during summer and open-water conditions are described. This manual was developed as a field guide to be used during spill response operations for the rapid identification of shoreline response options. Special attention is given to techniques that are normally available and appropriate for shoreline types and coastal environmental setting that are typical of Arctic regions. The guide is divided into four main sections: (1) shoreline protection, (2) treatment strategy by shoreline type, (3) treatment or cleanup methods, and (4) response strategies for specific environments. The importance of the type and volume of oil spilled, and the environmental factors that should be taken into account in the event of a spill (time of year, weather, ice and wave conditions) are stressed. The presence of sensitive resources such as wildlife, fish stocks, plant communities and human-use activities are also considered. tabs., figs

  9. The management of shoreline protection and treatment operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.

    1996-01-01

    The management of shoreline cleaning operations in the event of an oil spill, was discussed. An eight-step approach was introduced which was based on the definition of objectives and strategies. The discussion included evaluation of the feasibility of each of these strategies, as well as the effects of the proposed actions. It was emphasized that apart from natural recovery, any response action will have an effect either directly, by the protection or treatment actions, or indirectly, by the support actions, on the shore zone or the adjacent backshore. The main purpose of a response is to accelerate natural recovery. This new response approach can be an effective management tool, since the use of standard terms and strategy statements give operations personnel a well defined set of instruction which reduce the potential for misinterpretation. 4 refs., 9 figs

  10. Multiscale analysis of restoration priorities for marine shoreline planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L; Sobocinski, Kathryn L; Thom, Ronald M; May, Christopher W; Borde, Amy B; Southard, Susan L; Vavrinec, John; Sather, Nichole K

    2009-10-01

    Planners are being called on to prioritize marine shorelines for conservation status and restoration action. This study documents an approach to determining the management strategy most likely to succeed based on current conditions at local and landscape scales. The conceptual framework based in restoration ecology pairs appropriate restoration strategies with sites based on the likelihood of producing long-term resilience given the condition of ecosystem structures and processes at three scales: the shorezone unit (site), the drift cell reach (nearshore marine landscape), and the watershed (terrestrial landscape). The analysis is structured by a conceptual ecosystem model that identifies anthropogenic impacts on targeted ecosystem functions. A scoring system, weighted by geomorphic class, is applied to available spatial data for indicators of stress and function using geographic information systems. This planning tool augments other approaches to prioritizing restoration, including historical conditions and change analysis and ecosystem valuation.

  11. Megascale rhythmic shoreline forms on a beach with multiple bars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The study, carried out in 2003 and 2006 at the Lubiatowo Coastal ResearchStation (Poland, located on the non-tidal southern Baltic coast(tidal range < 0.06 m, focused on larger rhythmic forms (mega-cusps withwavelengths in the interval 500 m > Lc > 20 m. Statistical analyses of detailed shoreline configurations were performed mostly with the Discrete Wavelet Transformmethod (DWT. The beach is composed of fine sand with grain diameter D50 ≈ 0.22 mm, which produces 4 longshore sandbars and a gently sloping seabed with β = 0.015. The analysis confirms the key role of bars in hydro- and morphodynamic surf zone processes.The hypothesis was therefore set up that, in a surf zone with multiple bars, the bars and mega-scale shoreline rhythmic forms form one integrated physical system; experimental evidence to substantiate this hypothesis was also sought.In such a system not only do self-regulation processes include swash zone phenomena, they also incorporate processes in offshore surf zone locations.The longshore dimensions of large cusps are thus related to the distances between periodically active large bed forms (bars. The spatial dimension of bar system activity (number of active bars depends, at a given time scale, on the associated hydrodynamic conditions. It was assumed that such a time scale could include either the development and duration of a storm, or a period of stable, yet distinct waves, capable of remodelling the beach configuration.The indentation to wavelength ratio of mega-cusps for the studied non-tidal dissipative environment may be one order of magnitude greater than for mesotidal, reflective beaches.

  12. Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

    2017-11-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

  13. National Assessment Of Shoreline Change: Part 2, Historical Shoreline Changes And Associated Coastal Land Loss Along The U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.

    2005-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states comprising the Southeast Atlantic Coast (east Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) represents the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually include the Northeast Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in

  14. National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Miller, Tara L.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states bordering the Gulf of Mexico (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas) represents the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not

  15. Distribution, source identification, and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in wetland soils of a river-reservoir system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoliang; Xiong, Ziqian; Liu, Hui; Liu, Guihua; Liu, Wenzhi

    2017-01-01

    The majority of rivers in the world have been dammed, and over 45,000 large reservoirs have been constructed for multiple purposes. Riparian and reservoir shorelines are the two most important wetland types in a dammed river. To date, few studies have concerned the heavy metal pollution in wetland soils of these river-reservoir systems. In this study, we measured the concentrations of ten heavy metals (Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn) in surface soils collected from riparian and reservoir shorelines along the Han River in different seasons. Our results found that the Co, Cu, and Ni concentrations in riparian wetlands were significantly lower than those in reservoir shorelines. In riparian wetlands, only soil Sr concentration significantly increased after summer and autumn submergence. Multivariate statistical analyses demonstrated that Ba and Cd might originate from industrial and mining sources, whereas Sr and Mn predominantly originated from natural rock weathering. The ecological risk assessment analysis indicated that both riparian and reservoir shorelines along the Han River in China exhibited a moderate ecological risk in soil heavy metals. The upper Han River basin is the water resource area of China's Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Therefore, to control the contamination of heavy metals in wetland soils, more efforts should be focused on reducing the discharge of mining and industrial pollutants into the riparian and reservoir shorelines.

  16. Monitoring of shoreline changes using remote sensing (case study: coastal city of Bandar Abbas)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamassoki, E; Amiri, H; Soleymani, Z

    2014-01-01

    Shoreline change is one of the most common natural processes that prevail upon coastal areas. The most important aspect of managing coastal areas is identifying the location and change over time of shoreline. This requires frequent monitoring of the shoreline using satellite imagery over time. We have used imagery from the Landsat TM-5 sensor from 1984,1998 and 2009 in order to monitor shoreline changes using the Max Likelihood Classification method (MLC) in Bandar Abbas city. Monitoring showed that during the period from 1984 to 1998 the area of coastline of Bandar Abbas increased 804.09 hectares. The increase over the next 11-year period was as less, at only 140.81 hectares. In 2009 there was a drastic decrease in shoreline, with the total length of shoreline decreasing from 330 km to 271 km during the period from 1984 to 2009.Results showed that in each period in which the area of coastline advanced, changes in length of shoreline had been less prominent

  17. Detection of Oil near Shorelines during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Garcia-Pineda

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available During any marine oil spill, floating oil slicks that reach shorelines threaten a wide array of coastal habitats. To assess the presence of oil near shorelines during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH oil spill, we scanned the library of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imagery collected during the event to determine which images intersected shorelines and appeared to contain oil. In total, 715 SAR images taken during the DWH spill were analyzed and processed, with 188 of the images clearly showing oil. Of these, 156 SAR images showed oil within 10 km of the shoreline with appropriate weather conditions for the detection of oil on SAR data. We found detectable oil in SAR images within 10 km of the shoreline from west Louisiana to west Florida, including near beaches, marshes, and islands. The high number of SAR images collected in Barataria Bay, Louisiana in 2010 allowed for the creation of a nearshore oiling persistence map. This analysis shows that, in some areas inside Barataria Bay, floating oil was detected on as many as 29 different days in 2010. The nearshore areas with persistent floating oil corresponded well with areas where ground survey crews discovered heavy shoreline oiling. We conclude that satellite-based SAR imagery can detect oil slicks near shorelines, even in sheltered areas. These data can help assess potential shoreline oil exposure without requiring boats or aircraft. This method can be particularly helpful when shoreline assessment crews are hampered by difficult access or, in the case of DWH, a particularly large spatial and temporal spill extent.

  18. Oyster reefs as natural breakwaters mitigate shoreline loss and facilitate fisheries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven B Scyphers

    Full Text Available Shorelines at the interface of marine, estuarine and terrestrial biomes are among the most degraded and threatened habitats in the coastal zone because of their sensitivity to sea level rise, storms and increased human utilization. Previous efforts to protect shorelines have largely involved constructing bulkheads and seawalls which can detrimentally affect nearshore habitats. Recently, efforts have shifted towards "living shoreline" approaches that include biogenic breakwater reefs. Our study experimentally tested the efficacy of breakwater reefs constructed of oyster shell for protecting eroding coastal shorelines and their effect on nearshore fish and shellfish communities. Along two different stretches of eroding shoreline, we created replicated pairs of subtidal breakwater reefs and established unaltered reference areas as controls. At both sites we measured shoreline and bathymetric change and quantified oyster recruitment, fish and mobile macro-invertebrate abundances. Breakwater reef treatments mitigated shoreline retreat by more than 40% at one site, but overall vegetation retreat and erosion rates were high across all treatments and at both sites. Oyster settlement and subsequent survival were observed at both sites, with mean adult densities reaching more than eighty oysters m(-2 at one site. We found the corridor between intertidal marsh and oyster reef breakwaters supported higher abundances and different communities of fishes than control plots without oyster reef habitat. Among the fishes and mobile invertebrates that appeared to be strongly enhanced were several economically-important species. Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus were the most clearly enhanced (+297% by the presence of breakwater reefs, while red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus (+108%, spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus (+88% and flounder (Paralichthys sp. (+79% also benefited. Although the vertical relief of the breakwater reefs was reduced over the course of our study

  19. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of ocean shoreline location on the Virginia barrier islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haluska, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Shoreline change along the Eastern Atlantic shore of Virginia has been studied for the individual barrier islands but not as an integrated system. This study combines the Atlantic shoreline locations for eleven barrier islands obtained from LANDSAT 5, 7, and 8 images. Approximately 250 shoreline locations over a 24-year period from Jan 1990 to Dec 2014 were extracted from the digitized shoreline data at 338 transects. The resulting 338 by 250 matrix was analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique. The first four principal components (PC) explained 86 percent of the sample variance. Since the data was not detrended, the first PC was the overall trend of the data with a discontinuity in 2004-2005. The 2004-2005 interval included storm events and large shoreline changes. PCs 2 to 4 reflect the effects of El Nino events and tropical and non-tropical storms. Eigenvectors 1 to 4 all show the effects of the nine inlets in the island group. Eigenvector (EV) 1 explains 59 percent of the shoreline spatial variance and shows the largest changes at the northern and southern island ends. EVs 2 to 4 reflect the pattern of EV1 but at sequentially smaller percentages of the spatial variance. As a group, the eleven islands are losing ocean side shoreline. The lone exception is Hog Island. Sea level had the strongest correlation with the shoreline loss trend of PC1. The coefficient of determination was 0.41. The NAO and MEI also correlated with PC1 with correlations of determination of 0.05 and 0.12 respectively. These confidence level for the three factors was better than 99 percent. Sea level also correlated with PC3 and PC4. The PCs as a group show that the year intervals 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 had large effects on the shoreline change pattern for the island group. EVs 1 to 4 had the highest range of shoreline change at the island ends indicating the effect the changes of the inlets have on the adjacent islands. The smaller islands as a group had a higher level

  20. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  1. Shoreline change assessment using multi-temporal satellite images: a case study of Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duru, Umit

    2017-08-01

    The research summarized here determines historical shoreline changes along Lake Sapanca by using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Six multi-temporal satellite images of Landsat Multispectral Scanner (L1-5 MMS), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (L7 ETM+), and Operational Land Imager Sensors (L8 OLI), covering the period between 17 June 1975 and 15 July 2016, were used to monitor shoreline positions and estimate change rates along the coastal zone. After pre-possessing routines, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and supervised classification techniques were utilized to extract six different shorelines. Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), a toolbox that enables transect-based computations of shoreline displacement, was used to compute historical shoreline change rates. The average rate of shoreline change for the entire cost was 2.7 m/year of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.2 m/year. While the great part of the lake shoreline remained stable, the study concluded that the easterly and westerly coasts and deltaic coasts are more vulnerable to shoreline displacements over the last four decades. The study also reveals that anthropogenic activities, more specifically over extraction of freshwater from the lake, cyclic variation in rainfall, and deposition of sediment transported by the surrounding creeks dominantly control spatiotemporal shoreline changes in the region. Monitoring shoreline changes using multi-temporal satellite images is a significant component for the coastal decision-making and management.

  2. Validation of a short-term shoreline evolution model and coastal risk management implications. The case of the NW Portuguese coast (Ovar-Marinha Grande)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Giuseppina Persichillo, Maria; Disperati, Leonardo; Oliveira, Eduardo R.; de Fátima Lopes Alves, Maria; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Phillips, Mike

    2015-04-01

    ; selected images, ranging from 1984 to 2011, were processed in order to extract two different vegetation-related proxies (i.e. the Stable Dune Vegetation Line and the Seaward Dune Vegetation Line) and to quantify their uncertainty. The proxies' rates of advance/retreat were calculated by exploiting the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), an ESRI ArcGIS software application. Subsequently, it was used a recent Landsat 8 image to extract the 2014 observed shoreline proxies' positions. The latter were compared with the ones predicted for the same year adopting the rates previously obtained from DSAS. Statistical analyses based on the differences between predicted and observed values were calculated in order to i) study the coastal evolution of the study area, ii) predict short-term scenarios (3 years), iii) assess the predictions accuracy and iv) identify the more reliable proxy for the study area. Finally, results were interpreted in terms of coastal planning and management perspectives. This was achieved by taking into account the official coastal risk management framework implemented in 2012 to promote a flexible, integrated and adaptive approach. This new generation of Coastal Zone Master Plans had inspired this research because it reinforced the need for mechanisms of risks prevention and environmental safeguarding.

  3. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  4. Habitat structure and zonation patterns of northwestern Mediterranean shoreline strands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Mariani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We studied the habitat structure (macrofaunal assemblages and bottom types and zonation patterns of 29 unvegetated shoreline strands along the 900-km coast of Catalonia (NW Mediterranean Sea. Organisms were sampled with grabs, pitfall traps, sticky traps, clam nets and spades to ensure capture of the different proportions of macrofaunal assemblages from the supra-, medio- and infralittoral levels. We collected 211 taxa: 194 animals and 17 algae. The most abundant and dominant organisms collected with van Veen grabs were Nematoda, Oligochaeta and Collembola at the supralittoral level; the polychaetes Saccocirrus spp. and Pisione remota, the amphipod Corophium orientale, Nematoda, and Turbellaria at the mediolittoral level; and Nematoda at the upper infralittoral level. SIMPER analysis revealed great dissimilarity between the organisms inhabiting the supralittoral and the other littoral levels. Regarding the epifauna, the sticky traps used at the supralittoral level mainly collected Collembola, which were nearly absent in pitfall traps. The qualitative study performed with a clam net and a small spade revealed that Nematoda, Saccocirrus spp., Turbellaria, Nemertea and the polychaete P. remota were the most abundant animals at both the medio- and the infralittoral levels and no differences were found between these levels. Different qualitative sampling methodologies showed that in fine sediments the bivalves Donax trunculus and D. semistriatus determined more than 97% of dissimilarity from coarse-sand sites. Richness increased in protected sandy and cobble shores. Littoral level and bottom-type features were only to a certain extent valid indicators of specific biotic components for a specific habitat.

  5. Nutrient-enhanced bioremediation of oil-contaminated shoreline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    On March 24, 1989, the collision of the supertanker Exxon Valdez with a submerged reef in Prince William Sound AK, released 41.6 million L (11 million gal) of Prudhoe Bay crude oil. The oil spread with time to contaminate an estimated 565 km (350 miles) of shoreline. The degradation of oil components by biological mechanisms has been intensively studied during the last 20 years. The general outline of biodegradation pathways for aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons has been formulated and continues to be developed in greater detail. Consequently, the microbial decomposition of oil in aquatic environments is well understood to include descriptions of biodegradation kinetics; temperature effects for biodegradation can be described by an Arrhenius relationship. Even cold-water environments have been shown to support the biodegradation of oil components. This paper reports that a panel of experts was assembled to assist the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in determining the best treatment strategy to accelerate the natural biodegradation process in Prince William Sound

  6. Bioremediation of oil on shorelines with organic and inorganic nutrients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.; Ramstad, S.

    1995-01-01

    Two experiments to study the mechanisms associated with nutrient-enhanced biodegradation of oil (Statfjord crude oil)-contaminated shorelines were done in continuous-flow seawater exchange basins with simulated tides. The fertilizers included fish and meal pellets, stick water pellets, and two concentrations of Max Bac: standard and five times higher. Both one-time and repeated additions of fish meal were studied. The number of oil-degrading bacteria in the sediment increased by three to four orders of magnitude after adding oil and fertilizer, and repeated fertilization had little effect. Oil degradation was found to be extensive with all treatments in both experiments, which lasted 35 or 98 days. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon degradation seems to be most extensive in the sediments with repeated application of fish meal. The relation between accumulated total soluble nitrogen in interstitial water and nC 17 /pristane differs between the sediments treated with Max Bac and the organic additives, and indicates that this concentration cannot be used as a sole indication of the oil degradation rate if organic nutrients are used. The relation between accumulated CO 2 production and nC 17 /pristane ratio indicates a diauxic use of the two different sources of carbon present, without being absolute. Repeated fertilization with organic additives is neither beneficial nor detrimental to the oil degradation activity

  7. Biological effects of three different shoreline cleanup methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, J.; Lethinen, C.; Linden, O.

    1981-06-01

    In order to simulate a real oil spill the shore of a small island in the Baltic proper was treated with a weathered crude oil. The aim of the study was to investigate and compare environmental impact of some shoreline cleanup techniques as well as the effectiveness of these methods. Hot water was the quickest cleanup method, whereas cleaning with a solvent took twice as much time and mechanical recovery three and a half time as much. The hot water treatment resulted in the smallest amounts of oil left in the soil compared to the two other methods, where two to three times as much was left. The oil content in sedimenting material and in mussels was highest outside the area cleaned with hot water. The oil content in mussel tissues increased 75 times after cleaning and the sediment contained about twice as much oil as outside the other areas. The vegetation on all four oiled areas was considerably reduced and the soil fauna was completely eliminated. Since no animals were found on the four oiled areas, not even on the untreated area, it appeared to be the oil itself that caused this effect. The number of animals caught with pitfall traps decreased after oiling and cleanup to between 10-40 % of the original amount. The results from the investigation of the fauna in the Cladophora-belt do not indicate any effects so far.

  8. Shoreline changes and its impact on archaeological sites in West Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenger-Nielsen, R.; Kroon, A.; Elberling, B.; Hollesen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal erosion is regarded as a major threat to archaeological sites in the Arctic region. The problem arises because the predominantly marine-focused lifeways of Arctic people means that the majority of archaeological sites are found near the coast. On a Pan-Arctic scale, coastal erosion is often explained by long-term processes such as sea level rise, lengthening of open water periods due to a decline in sea ice, and a predicted increase in the frequency of major storms. However, on a local scale other short-term processes may be important parameters determining the coastal development. In this study, we focus on the Nuuk fjord system in West Greenland, which has been inhabited over the past 4000 years by different cultures and holds around 260 registered archaeological settlements. The fjord is characterized by its large branching of narrow deep-water and well-shaded water bodies, where tidal processes and local sources of sediment supply by rivers are observed to be the dominant factors determining the coastal development. We present a regional model showing the vulnerability of the shoreline and archeological sites due to coastal processes. The model is based on a) levelling surveys and historical aerial photographs of nine specific sites distributed in the region, b) water level measurements at three sites representing the inner-, middle- and outer fjord system, c) aerial photographs, satellite images and meteorological data of the entire region used to up-scale our local information at a specific settlement scale towards a regional scale. This deals with spatial and temporal variability in erosion and accumulation patterns along the shores in fjords and open seas.

  9. Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, classified according to the...

  10. National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) Sampling Areas Polygons, Hawaiian Islands Shoreline, 2015, US EPA Region 9

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This is a polygon feature dataset with areas along the shoreline of the Hawaiian islands. The National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) is a national coastal...

  11. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: South Florida: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of South Florida classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity Index...

  12. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: South Florida: ESIP (ESI Shoreline Types - Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIP data set contains vector polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of South Florida classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  13. Impact of port structures on the shoreline of Karnataka, west coast, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deepa, N.; Kunte, P.D.

    (GIS) as the location of the shoreline and its historical rate of change can provide important information for the design of coastal protection, plans for coastal development, coastal and social vulnerability study, and the calibration...

  14. Variability and correlations of shoreline and dunes on the southern Baltic coast (CRS Lubiatowo, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Pruszak

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the results of field investigations into the evolution of the shoreline and dune toe positions in a multi-bar,dissipative coastal zone. The correlations between the changes in the shoreline and the dune toe range from -0.4 to 0.8. It is most often the case that the dune toe is stable while the shoreline moves. Consistent cross-shore migration is slightly more likelyto happen than the divergent or convergent movements of both lines. Shoreline retreat and advance attain respective rates of 0.7 m day-1 and 0.4 m day-1. Deep-water wave energy of about 50 kJ m-1 constitutes the boundary between shore accumulation and erosion.

  15. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Florida Panhandle: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains vector lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of the Florida Panhandle, classified according to the Environmental...

  16. A Collaborative Geospatial Shoreline Inventory Tool to Guide Coastal Development and Habitat Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Gies

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We are developing a geospatial inventory tool that will guide habitat conservation, restoration and coastal development and benefit several stakeholders who seek mitigation and adaptation strategies to shoreline changes resulting from erosion and sea level rise. The ESRI Geoportal Server, which is a type of web portal used to find and access geospatial information in a central repository, is customized by adding a Geoinventory tool capability that allows any shoreline related data to be searched, displayed and analyzed on a map viewer. Users will be able to select sections of the shoreline and generate statistical reports in the map viewer to allow for comparisons. The tool will also facilitate map-based discussion forums and creation of user groups to encourage citizen participation in decisions regarding shoreline stabilization and restoration, thereby promoting sustainable coastal development.

  17. Virginia ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Virginia, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  18. Maryland ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats for Maryland, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  19. Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska ESI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Polygons and Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, classified according to...

  20. Performance of a process-based hydrodynamic model in predicting shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

    2012-12-01

    Shoreline change is controlled by a complex combination of processes that include waves, currents, sediment characteristics and availability, geologic framework, human interventions, and sea level rise. A comprehensive data set of shoreline position (14 shorelines between 1978-2002) along the continuous and relatively non-interrupted North Carolina Coast from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras (65 km) reveals a spatial pattern of alternating erosion and accretion, with an erosional average shoreline change rate of -1.6 m/yr and up to -8 m/yr in some locations. This data set gives a unique opportunity to study long-term shoreline change in an area hit by frequent storm events while relatively uninfluenced by human interventions and the effects of tidal inlets. Accurate predictions of long-term shoreline change may require a model that accurately resolves surf zone processes and sediment transport patterns. Conventional methods for predicting shoreline change such as one-line models and regression of shoreline positions have been designed for computational efficiency. These methods, however, not only have several underlying restrictions (validity for small angle of wave approach, assuming bottom contours and shoreline to be parallel, depth of closure, etc.) but also their empirical estimates of sediment transport rates in the surf zone have been shown to vary greatly from the calculations of process-based hydrodynamic models. We focus on hind-casting long-term shoreline change using components of the process-based, three-dimensional coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST). COAWST is forced with historical predictions of atmospheric and oceanographic data from public-domain global models. Through a method of coupled concurrent grid-refinement approach in COAWST, the finest grid with resolution of O(10 m) that covers the surf zone along the section of interest is forced at its spatial boundaries with waves and currents computed on the grids

  1. Emerging and Submerging Shorelines: Impacts of Physical Change on Bioband Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, L. E.; Johnson, A. C.; Gregovich, D.; Buma, B.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    We approximated shifts in coastal benthic species for shoreline length units undergoing both sea level rise and relative sea level lowering (often post-glacial, termed isostatic rebound) where subsistence-based, southeast Alaska Natives reside. From six community centers, we examined 30 km radii shoreline reaches by merging relevant portions of the NOAA ShoreZone database with near shore bathymetry and measures of mean global sea level rise with local global positioning system information (GIS) of tectonic shift and isostatic rebound. For our analysis, we estimated change for 9,868 assessed shoreline length units having uniform substrate and biologic type over a 100-yr time span (2008-2108) using geometric analysis of shoreline attributes. For each shoreline length unit we assessed relationships among substrate, slope, exposure, and presence of five benthic species including eel grass (Zostera marina), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), butter clams (Saxidomus gigantean), bull kelp (Nereocytis leutkeana), and foliose red algae including ribbon kelp (Palmaria sp.). Our research indicates that both emergence, up to 1.8 m, and submergence, up 0.2 m, of the land will result in disportionately larger shoreline length segment alterations for habitats in protected low-slope gradient bays and estuaries (dominated by eelgrass and butter clam habitats) with less change for rocky steep-gradient exposed penninsulas (red algae and canopy kelp). This trend, holding true regardless of isostatic rebound, tectonic shift or sea level rise rate, highlights the importance of initial geomorphology-based assessments serving to improve bio-physical, chemical, and socially-related coastal research. Where shorelines are emerging 30% decreases in estuary lengths are predicted, but where shorelines are submerging up to 3% increases in estuaries are expected. Our research results are consistent with anthropology studies assessing past coastal change. Coastal change, influencing subsistance foods

  2. Semi-automated procedures for shoreline extraction using single RADARSAT-1 SAR image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Fugura, A.'kif; Billa, Lawal; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2011-12-01

    Coastline identification is important for surveying and mapping reasons. Coastline serves as the basic point of reference and is used on nautical charts for navigation purposes. Its delineation has become crucial and more important in the wake of the many recent earthquakes and tsunamis resulting in complete change and redraw of some shorelines. In a tropical country like Malaysia, presence of cloud cover hinders the application of optical remote sensing data. In this study a semi-automated technique and procedures are presented for shoreline delineation from RADARSAT-1 image. A scene of RADARSAT-1 satellite image was processed using enhanced filtering technique to identify and extract the shoreline coast of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. RADSARSAT image has many advantages over the optical data because of its ability to penetrate cloud cover and its night sensing capabilities. At first, speckles were removed from the image by using Lee sigma filter which was used to reduce random noise and to enhance the image and discriminate the boundary between land and water. The results showed an accurate and improved extraction and delineation of the entire coastline of Kuala Terrenganu. The study demonstrated the reliability of the image averaging filter in reducing random noise over the sea surface especially near the shoreline. It enhanced land-water boundary differentiation, enabling better delineation of the shoreline. Overall, the developed techniques showed the potential of radar imagery for accurate shoreline mapping and will be useful for monitoring shoreline changes during high and low tides as well as shoreline erosion in a tropical country like Malaysia.

  3. Mangroves and shoreline change on Molokai, Hawaii: Assessing the role of introduced Rhizophora mangle in sediment dynamics and coastal change using remote sensing and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Iorio, Margaret Mary

    submergence with a scenario of rising sea level and where land use practices and variable seasonal climate affect sediment delivery to the coast, mangroves are instrumental in trapping terrestrial sediment at the shoreline, play an important role in determining local sources and sinks of coastal sediment, and may contribute to the overall health and sustainability of nearshore reef resources.

  4. Effects of erosion control structures along a portion of the northern Chesapeake Bay shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabawa, C.F.; Kerhin, R.T.; Bayley, S.

    1981-01-01

    A 6.500-meter reach of western Chesapeake Bay shoreline (lower Mayo Peninsula) lost about 1.1??106 cubic meters of sediment (equivalent to 170 cubic meters lost per meter of shoreline) between 1846 and 1932, when the first aerial photographs show the shoreline already substantially protected by a system of groins and intermittent bulkheading. These structures have eliminated the fastland as a source of erodable material, and have starved the supply of sand for littoral drift, thus limiting the extent of the beaches to the remaining groin fields. Volumes of sediment involved in these impacts are small in the overall sediment budget. Bulkheads produce no deficit in the budget since scouring of the beaches on their seaward sides makes up for the decreased erosion of protected fastland. Groins trap little of the potential littoral drift (computed to be about 104 cubic meters per meter of shoreline per year). The sand supply in the remaining beaches is nearly equivalent to the annual loss of sediment from the entire shoreline system due to the long-term rate of erosion of the shoreline and nearshore between 1846 and 1932. ?? 1981 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  5. Vegetation of natural and artificial shorelines in Upper Klamath Basin’s fringe wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Andrew M.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Hamilton, Andy S.

    2013-01-01

    The Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) in northern California and southern Oregon supports large hypereutrophic lakes surrounded by natural and artificial shorelines. Lake shorelines contain fringe wetlands that provide key ecological services to the people of this region. These wetlands also provide a context for drawing inferences about how differing wetland types and wave exposure contribute to the vegetative assemblages in lake-fringe wetlands. Here, we summarize how elevation profiles and vegetation richness vary as a function of wave exposure and wetland type. Our results show that levee wetland shorelines are 4X steeper and support fewer species than other wetland types. We also summarize the occurrence probability of the five common wetland plant species that represent the overwhelming majority of the diversity of these wetlands. In brief, the occurrence probability of the culturally significant Nuphar lutea spp. polysepala and the invasive Phalaris arundinacea in wave exposed and sheltered sites varies based on wetland type. The occurrence probability for P. arundinacea was greatest in exposed portions of deltaic shorelines, but these trends were reversed on levees where the occurrence probability was greater in sheltered sites. The widespread Schoenoplectus acutus var. acutus occurred throughout all wetland and exposure type combinations but had a higher probability of occurrence in wave exposed sites. Results from this work will add to our current understanding of how wetland shoreline profiles interact with wave exposure to influence the occurrence probability of the dominant vegetative species in UKB’s shoreline wetlands.

  6. The Efficiency of Random Forest Method for Shoreline Extraction from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 Imageries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram, B.; Erdem, F.; Akpinar, B.; Ince, A. K.; Bozkurt, S.; Catal Reis, H.; Seker, D. Z.

    2017-11-01

    Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718) titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model - Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band) and GOKTURK-2 (4th band) imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  7. THE EFFICIENCY OF RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR SHORELINE EXTRACTION FROM LANDSAT-8 AND GOKTURK-2 IMAGERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bayram

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718 titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model – Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band and GOKTURK-2 (4th band imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

  8. Pleistocene Lake Bonneville and Eberswalde Crater of Mars: Quantitative Methods for Recognizing Poorly Developed Lacustrine Shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, P. W.

    2014-12-01

    The ability to quantify shoreline features on Earth has been aided by advances in acquisition of high-resolution topography through laser imaging and photogrammetry. Well-defined and well-documented features such as the Bonneville, Provo, and Stansbury shorelines of Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville are recognizable to the untrained eye and easily mappable on aerial photos. The continuity and correlation of lesser shorelines must rely quantitative algorithms for processing high-resolution data in order to gain widespread scientific acceptance. Using Savitsky-Golay filters and the geomorphic methods and criteria described by Hare et al. [2001], minor, transgressive, erosional shorelines of Lake Bonneville have been identified and correlated across the basin with varying degrees of statistical confidence. Results solve one of the key paradoxes of Lake Bonneville first described by G. K. Gilbert in the late 19th century and point the way for understanding climatically driven oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Great Basin of the United States. Similar techniques have been applied to the Eberswalde Crater area of Mars using HRiSE DEMs (1 m horizontal resolution) where a paleolake is hypothesized to have existed. Results illustrate the challenges of identifying shorelines where long term aeolian processes have degraded the shorelines and field validation is not possible. The work illustrates the promises and challenges of indentifying remnants of a global ocean elsewhere on the red planet.

  9. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  10. In situ bioremediation strategies for oiled shoreline environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.; Mora, S. de

    1999-01-01

    Despite advances in preventative measures, recent events have demonstrated that accidental oil spills at sea will still occur. While physical (e.g. booms and skimmers) and chemical (e.g. chemical dispersants) methods have been developed to recover and/or disperse oil spilled at sea, they are not 100% effective and are frequently limited by operational constraints attributed to sea state and/or nature of the contamination. As a result, oil spills frequently impact shoreline environments. In situ bioremediation, the addition of substances or modification of habitat at contaminated sites to accelerate natural biodegradation processes, is now recognised as an alternative spill response technology of the remediation of these sites. Recommended for use following the physical removal of bulk oil, this treatment strategy has an operational advantage in that it breaks down and/or removes the residual contamination in place. Laboratory experiments and field trials have demonstrated the feasibility and success of bioremediation strategies such as nutrient enrichment to enhance bacterial degradation of oil on cobble, sand beach and salt marsh environments. With improved knowledge of the factors that limit natural oil degradation rates, the feasibility of other strategies such as phytoremediation, enhanced oil-mineral fines interaction and the addition of oxygen or alternative electron acceptors are now being evaluated. Laboratory and field test protocols are being refined for the selection of effective bioremediation agents and methods of application. It is recommended that future operational guidelines include real time product efficacy test and environmental effects monitoring programs. Termination of treatment should be implemented when: 1) it is no longer effective; 2) the oil has degraded to acceptable biologically benign concentrations; or 3) toxicity due to the treatment is increasing. (Author)

  11. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  12. A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.J.; Mount, N.J.; Hattermann, F.F.; Dankers, R.; Arheimer, B.; Breuer, L.; Ding, J.; Haddeland, I.; Kumar, R.; Kundu, D.; Liu, J.; van Griensven, A.; Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Vetter, T.; Wang, X.; Zhang, X.

    2017-01-01

    We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi,

  13. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  16. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  17. A METHOD OF EXTRACTING SHORELINE BASED ON SEMANTIC INFORMATION USING DUAL-LENGTH LiDAR DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Shoreline is a spatial varying separation between water and land. By utilizing dual-wavelength LiDAR point data together with semantic information that shoreline often appears beyond water surface profile and is observable on the beach, the paper generates the shoreline and the details are as follows: (1 Gain the water surface profile: first we obtain water surface by roughly selecting water points based on several features of water body, then apply least square fitting method to get the whole water trend surface. Then we get the ground surface connecting the under -water surface by both TIN progressive filtering method and surface interpolation method. After that, we have two fitting surfaces intersected to get water surface profile of the island. (2 Gain the sandy beach: we grid all points and select the water surface profile grids points as seeds, then extract sandy beach points based on eight-neighborhood method and features, then we get all sandy beaches. (3 Get the island shoreline: first we get the sandy beach shoreline based on intensity information, then we get a threshold value to distinguish wet area and dry area, therefore we get the shoreline of several sandy beaches. In some extent, the shoreline has the same height values within a small area, by using all the sandy shoreline points to fit a plane P, and the intersection line of the ground surface and the shoreline plane P can be regarded as the island shoreline. By comparing with the surveying shoreline, the results show that the proposed method can successfully extract shoreline.

  18. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  19. Quantifying the effectiveness of shoreline armoring removal on coastal biota of Puget Sound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Timothy S; Toft, Jason D; Cordell, Jeffery R; Dethier, Megan N; Adams, Jeffrey W; Kelly, Ryan P

    2018-01-01

    Shoreline armoring is prevalent around the world with unprecedented human population growth and urbanization along coastal habitats. Armoring structures, such as riprap and bulkheads, that are built to prevent beach erosion and protect coastal infrastructure from storms and flooding can cause deterioration of habitats for migratory fish species, disrupt aquatic-terrestrial connectivity, and reduce overall coastal ecosystem health. Relative to armored shorelines, natural shorelines retain valuable habitats for macroinvertebrates and other coastal biota. One question is whether the impacts of armoring are reversible, allowing restoration via armoring removal and related actions of sediment nourishment and replanting of native riparian vegetation. Armoring removal is targeted as a viable option for restoring some habitat functions, but few assessments of coastal biota response exist. Here, we use opportunistic sampling of pre- and post-restoration data for five biotic measures (wrack % cover, saltmarsh % cover, number of logs, and macroinvertebrate abundance and richness) from a set of six restored sites in Puget Sound, WA, USA. This broad suite of ecosystem metrics responded strongly and positively to armor removal, and these results were evident after less than one year. Restoration responses remained positive and statistically significant across different shoreline elevations and temporal trajectories. This analysis shows that removing shoreline armoring is effective for restoration projects aimed at improving the health and productivity of coastal ecosystems, and these results may be widely applicable.

  20. Quantifying the effectiveness of shoreline armoring removal on coastal biota of Puget Sound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy S. Lee

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Shoreline armoring is prevalent around the world with unprecedented human population growth and urbanization along coastal habitats. Armoring structures, such as riprap and bulkheads, that are built to prevent beach erosion and protect coastal infrastructure from storms and flooding can cause deterioration of habitats for migratory fish species, disrupt aquatic–terrestrial connectivity, and reduce overall coastal ecosystem health. Relative to armored shorelines, natural shorelines retain valuable habitats for macroinvertebrates and other coastal biota. One question is whether the impacts of armoring are reversible, allowing restoration via armoring removal and related actions of sediment nourishment and replanting of native riparian vegetation. Armoring removal is targeted as a viable option for restoring some habitat functions, but few assessments of coastal biota response exist. Here, we use opportunistic sampling of pre- and post-restoration data for five biotic measures (wrack % cover, saltmarsh % cover, number of logs, and macroinvertebrate abundance and richness from a set of six restored sites in Puget Sound, WA, USA. This broad suite of ecosystem metrics responded strongly and positively to armor removal, and these results were evident after less than one year. Restoration responses remained positive and statistically significant across different shoreline elevations and temporal trajectories. This analysis shows that removing shoreline armoring is effective for restoration projects aimed at improving the health and productivity of coastal ecosystems, and these results may be widely applicable.

  1. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  2. Comparison of two shoreline assessment programs conducted for the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harner, E.J.; Gilfillan, E.S.

    1995-01-01

    Two large shoreline assessment studies conducted in 1990 in Prince William Sound, Alaska, after the Exxon Valdez oil spill used different design strategies to determine the impact of oiling on shoreline biota. One of the studies, the Coastal Habitat Injury Assessment (CHIA) conducted for the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Council, used matched pairs of sites, normal population distributions for biota, and meta-analysis. The power of the CHIA study to detect oiling impacts depends on being able to identify and select appropriate pairs of sites for comparison. The CHIA study also increased the oiling signal by focusing on moderate to heavily oiled sites. The Shoreline Ecology Program (SEP), conducted for Exxon, used a stratified-random-sampling study design, normal and non-normal population distributions and covariates. The SEP study was able to detect oiling impacts by using a sufficient number of sites and widely spaced transects

  3. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  4. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  5. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  6. Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.

    2016-12-01

    We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of 20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.

  7. Shoreline Changes at New Mangalore Port, India in the past and over future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    The New Mangalore port is one of the major ports along the west coast of India. It is of artificial type with a pair of breakwaters constructed in phases from the year 1974 to 1996. The studies indicating the impact of constructing the breakwaters on adjacent shorelines after 1996 are difficult to find. The present work is aimed in this direction. For a 10 km stretch of the coast lying on both sides of the breakwaters 35 transects were constructed and shorelines were delineated from 4 satellite imageries that were recorded over the past 36 years at around 12 years' interval. Over each transect the rate of change of shoreline was calculated using linear regression and its adequacy was checked using the error statistics of R2 and RMSE. After such satisfactory cross-check, shorelines were predicted over the 12 and 36 years in future, i. e., in the years: 2028 and 2051. The patches undergoing erosion as well as accretion were identified. It was found that the rate of shoreline shifts fluctuated from -1.69 ± 0.45 m/year to 2.56 ± 0.45 m/year and about 52.28 % of the study area underwent substantial erosion. Most of the transects located toward north of the northern breakwater saw pro-gradation while those sited at south of the southern breakwater exhibited chronic erosion. The human interventions and presence of artificial structures accelerated the changes in the shoreline and also gave rise to higher uncertainties. The paper will present full details of the methodology, results and their interpretation.

  8. Measuring the Economic Value of Two Habitat Defragmentation Policy Scenarios for the Veluwe, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heide, van der C.M.; Bergh, van den J.C.J.M.; Ierland, van E.C.; Nunes, P.

    2005-01-01

    This paper offers an economic value assessment of a nature protection programme in the Veluwe. This programme involves two defragmentation scenarios: the first scenario connects the central part of the Veluwe with the IJssel river forelands in a north-eastern direction, while the second scenario is

  9. Further ecological and shoreline stability reconnaissance surveys of Back Island, Behm Canal, Southeast Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, J.S.; Strand, J.A.; Ecker, R.M.

    1987-09-01

    A diver reconnaissance of the intertidal and subtidal zones of Back Island was performed to catalog potentially vulnerable shellfish, other invertebrates, and marine plant resources occurring at three proposed alternate pier sites on the west side of Back Island. Additionally, a limited survey of terrestrial vegetation was conducted in the vicinity of one of the proposed alternate pier sites to describe the littoral community and to list the dominant plant species found there. Finally, a reconnaissance survey of the shoreline of Back Island was conducted to evaluate potential changes in shoreline stability resulting from construction of onshore portions of the Southeast Alaska Acoustic Measurement Facility (SEAFAC).

  10. Simulation of shoreline development in a groyne system, with a case study Sanur Bali beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, P. H.; Pudjaprasetya, S. R.

    2018-03-01

    The process of shoreline changes due to transport of sediment by littoral drift is studied in this paper. Pelnard-Considère is the commonly adopted model. This model is based on the principle of sediment conservation, without diffraction. In this research, we adopt the Pelnard-Considère equation with diffraction, and a numerical scheme based on the finite volume method is implemented. Shoreline development in a groyne system is then simulated. For a case study, the Sanur Bali Beach, Indonesia is considered, in which from Google Earth photos, the beach experiences changes of coastline caused by sediment trapped in a groyne system.

  11. A field guide for the protection and treatment of shorelines following an Orimulsion spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E. O.; Sergy, G.

    1997-01-01

    A field guide for use in marine shoreline protection and treatment for Orimulsion was prepared. Orimulsion is a bitumen-based fuel consisting of 70 per cent bitumen and 30 per cent water, stabilized by a surfactant. The guide addresses a wide range of issues related to the protection and cleanup of Orimulsion contamination. Topics covered include the fate, behaviour, persistence and natural removal rates, recommended techniques for shoreline protection, terminology for assessment documentation, and response decision guidelines. The manual covers both forms of Orimulsion, i.e. the non-sticky dispersed bitumen, as well as the tarry residue that results from weathering. 13 refs., 8 figs

  12. 76 FR 54382 - Safety Zone; Labor Day Fireworks, Ancarrows Landing Park, James River, Richmond, VA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    ... the shoreline of the navigable waters of the James River centered on position 37[deg]31'13.1'' N..., performance, design, or operation; test methods; sampling procedures; and related management systems practices... which do not individually or cumulatively have a significant effect on the human environment. This rule...

  13. Ecosystem Design Principles for Restoring Deltaic Floodplains: Examples from Mississippi River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twilley, R.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to flooding from coastal storms. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how landward migration of fringe wetlands of coastal basins as result of river management over the last 75 years can provide insights to these complex issues. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 yrs (pmanagement decisions in deltaic coast. Restoration features focused on living shorelines may contribute to solutions to these non-linear feedbacks; but certain ecosystem design features have to be considered so such shorelines can adapt to relative sea level rise. Shorelines must have adaptive strategies compared to fixed hard structures - resulting on sediment management and redistribution as critical process to shoreline stabilization. Policies in US to encourage sediment placement associated with national dredge activities must be integrated to ecosystems services of fringe wetland restoration.

  14. Using Shoreline Video Assessment for coastal planning and restoration in the context of climate change in Kien Giang, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Cuong, Chu; Russell, Michael; Brown, Sharon; Dart, Peter

    2015-06-01

    Kien Giang, bordering Cambodia in the Mekong River Delta, is one of the two most vulnerable provinces in the region to coastal erosion and flooding. Coastal protection can conflict with current land use and economic development activities. The conditions of the mangrove forest and mainland coastline of the Kien Giang province were assessed using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method (SVAM) backed up with information from satellite images. Half of the 206 km Kien Giang coastline has been eroded or is being eroded. Protective mangrove forests naturally occurred in 74% of the coastline but have been under threat from illegal cutting, erosion and coastal retreat. Accurate information on the state of the coastline and mangrove forest health provided invaluable data for developing a new coastal rehabilitation plan to guard against future sea level rise. In contrast to the current boundary management of land and natural resources, this plan divided the provincial coastline into 19 sections based on the landscape condition and exposure to erosion. Priority strategic actions for erosion management, mangrove restoration and sustainable livelihood development for local communities for each section of coast were developed based on an integrated cross sectoral approach and practical experience in the Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project.

  15. Simulation of Columbia River Floods in the Hanford Reach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waichler, Scott R.; Serkowski, John A.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2017-01-30

    Columbia River water elevations and flows in the Hanford Reach affect the environment and facilities along the shoreline, including movement of contaminants in groundwater, fish habitat, and infrastructure subject to flooding. This report describes the hydraulic simulation of hypothetical flood flows using the best available topographic and bathymetric data for the Hanford Reach and the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in 1 Dimension (MASS1) hydrodynamic model. The MASS1 model of the Hanford Reach was previously calibrated to field measurements of water surface elevations. The current model setup can be used for other studies of flow, water levels, and temperature in the Reach. The existing MASS1 channel geometry and roughness and other model configuration inputs for the Hanford Reach were used for this study, and previous calibration and validation results for the model are reprinted here for reference. The flood flows for this study were simulated by setting constant flow rates obtained from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the Columbia, Snake, and Yakima Rivers, and a constant water level at McNary Dam, and then running the model to steady state. The discharge levels simulated were all low-probability events; for example, a 100-year flood is one that would occur on average every 100 years, or put another way, in any given year there is a 1% chance that a discharge of that level or higher will occur. The simulated floods and their corresponding Columbia River discharges were 100-year (445,000 cfs), 500-year (520,000 cfs), and the USACE-defined Standard Project Flood (960,000 cfs). The resulting water levels from the steady-state floods can be viewed as “worst case” outcomes for the respective discharge levels. The MASS1 output for water surface elevations was converted to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 and projected across the channel and land surface to enable mapping of the floodplain for each scenario. Floodplain maps show that for

  16. Estimating River Surface Elevation From ArcticDEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Chunli; Durand, Michael; Howat, Ian M.; Altenau, Elizabeth H.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.

    2018-04-01

    ArcticDEM is a collection of 2-m resolution, repeat digital surface models created from stereoscopic satellite imagery. To demonstrate the potential of ArcticDEM for measuring river stages and discharges, we estimate river surface heights along a reach of Tanana River near Fairbanks, Alaska, by the precise detection of river shorelines and mapping of shorelines to land surface elevation. The river height profiles over a 15-km reach agree with in situ measurements to a standard deviation less than 30 cm. The time series of ArcticDEM-derived river heights agree with the U.S. Geological Survey gage measurements with a standard deviation of 32 cm. Using the rating curve for that gage, we obtain discharges with a validation accuracy (root-mean-square error) of 234 m3/s (23% of the mean discharge). Our results demonstrate that ArcticDEM can accurately measure spatial and temporal variations of river surfaces, providing a new and powerful data set for hydrologic analysis.

  17. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  18. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  19. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  20. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  1. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  2. 33 CFR 165.1316 - Safety Zone; Columbia River, Astoria, Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Safety Zone; Columbia River....1316 Safety Zone; Columbia River, Astoria, Oregon. (a) Location. The following area is a safety zone... Oregon shoreline at 123°49′36″ West to 46°11′51″ North thence east to 123°48′53″ West thence south to the...

  3. 75 FR 33690 - Safety Zone, Lights on the River Fireworks Display, Delaware River, New Hope, PA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-15

    ... scenario with potential for loss of life and property. Basis and Purpose The New Hope Chamber of Commerce... to protect life and property operating on the navigable waterways of the Delaware River in New Hope...-AA00 Safety Zone, Lights on the River Fireworks Display, Delaware River, New Hope, PA AGENCY: Coast...

  4. Integrating millennial and interdecadal shoreline changes: Morpho-sedimentary investigation of two prograded barriers in southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, T. S. N.; Tamura, T.; Hudson, J. P.; Woodroffe, C. D.

    2017-07-01

    Prograded barriers are distinctive coastal landforms preserving the position of past shorelines as low relief, shore-parallel ridges composed of beach sediments and commonly adorned with variable amounts of dune sand. Prograded barriers have been valued as coastal archives which contain palaeoenvironmental information, however integrating the millennial timescale geological history of barriers with observed inter-decadal modern beach processes has proved difficult. Technologies such as airborne LiDAR, ground penetrating radar (GPR) and optically stimulated luminescence dating (OSL) were utilised at Boydtown and Wonboyn, in southeastern Australia, and combined with previously reported radiocarbon dates and offshore seismic and sedimentological data to reconstruct the morpho-sedimentary history of prograded barrier systems. These technologies enabled reconstruction of geological timescale processes integrated with an inter-decadal model of ridge formation explaining the GPR-imaged subsurface character of the barriers. Both the Boydtown and Wonboyn barriers began prograding 7500-8000 years ago when sea level attained at or near present height along this coastline and continued prograding until the present-day with an initially slower rate of shoreline advancement. Sources of sediment for progradation appear to be the inner shelf and shoreface with a large shelf sand body likely contributing to progradation at Wonboyn. The Towamba River seems to have delivered sediment to Twofold Bay during flood events after transitioning to a mature estuarine system sometime after 4000 cal. yr BP. Some of this material appears to have been reworked onto the Boydtown barrier, increasing the rate of progradation in the seaward 50% of the barrier deposited over the past 1500 years. The GPR imaged beachfaces are shown to have similar geometry to beach profiles following recent storm events and a model of ridge formation involving cut and fill of the beachface, and dune building in the

  5. Using GPS-surveyed intertidal zones to determine the validity of shorelines automatically mapped by Landsat water indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Joshua T.; Gontz, Allen M.

    2018-03-01

    Satellite remote sensing has been used extensively in a variety of shoreline studies and validated using aerial photography. This ground truth method only represents an instantaneous depiction of the shoreline at the time of acquisition and does not take into account the spatial and temporal variability of the dynamic shoreline boundary. Landsat 8‧s Operational Land Imager sensor's capability to accurately delineate a shoreline is assessed by comparing all known Landsat water index-derived shorelines with two GPS-surveyed intertidal zones that coincide with the satellite flyover date, one of which had near-neap tide conditions. Seven indices developed for automatically classifying water pixels were evaluated for their ability to delineate shorelines. The shoreline is described here as the area above and below maximum low and high tide, otherwise known as the intertidal zone. The high-water line, or wet/dry sediment line, was chosen as the shoreline indicator to be mapped using a handheld GPS. The proportion of the Landsat-derived shorelines that fell within this zone and their alongshore profile lengths were calculated. The most frequently used water index and the predecessor to Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), was found to be the least accurate by a significant margin. Other indices required calibration of their threshold value to achieve accurate results, thus diminishing their replicability success for other regions. MNDWI was determined to be the best index for automated shoreline mapping, based on its superior accuracy and repeatable, stable threshold value.

  6. Shoreline type and subsurface oil persistence in the Exon Valdez spill zone of Prince William Sound, Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, D.S. [Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME (United States). Dept. of Chemistry; Boehm, P.D. [Exponent Inc., Maynard, MA (United States); Neff, J.M. [Neff and Associates, Duxbury, MA (United States)

    2008-07-01

    The grounding of the Exxon Valdez in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska in the spring of 1989 resulted in the release of 258,000 barrels of Alaska North Slope crude oil into the marine environment. Nearly 800 km of shoreline were oiled to some degree. There was an unprecedented oil spill cleanup effort following the spill. The shoreline surveys of the spill zone were synthesized in this paper in an effort to demonstrate the relationship between shoreline type and persistence of subsurface oil (SSO) residues. Shoreline surveys of surface and SSO indicate rapid initial oil loss with a decline from about 800 linear km of PWS shoreline in 1989 to about 10 km of oiled shoreline in 1992. The period of rapid loss was attributed to natural physical process, biodegradation and cleanup activities that removed accessible spill remnants from shorelines. This was followed by a slower natural average loss rate for less accessible surface and SSO deposits of about 22 per cent per year for the period 1992-2001. This paper emphasized that shoreline type plays a key role in determining SSO persistence. The geology of PWS is complex. Many of the shorelines where SSO persists have armouring layers composed of hard, dense clasts, such as the quartzite boulders and cobblestones that can protect SSO deposits. Eighteen years after the spill, persistent SSO deposits in PWS shorelines remain protected from tidal water-washing and biodegradation by a surface boulder/cobble armour and low sediment porosity. The SSO deposits are in a physical/chemical form and location where they do not pose a health risk to intertidal biological communities and animals. The surveys continue to substantiate that remaining SSO deposits in PWS continue to degrade and go away slowly. 37 refs., 5 tabs., 7 figs.

  7. 18 CFR 1304.208 - Shoreline stabilization on TVA-owned residential access shoreland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... of gabions and riprap to stabilize eroded shorelines. (1) The riprap material must be quarry-run stone, natural stone, or other material approved by TVA. (2) Rubber tires, concrete rubble, or other... concrete, gabions, or other materials acceptable to TVA. Railroad ties, rubber tires, broken concrete...

  8. Preliminary study of soil liquefaction hazard at Terengganu shoreline, Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, H.; Suhatril, M.; Hashim, R.

    2017-06-01

    Terengganu is a shoreline state located in Peninsular Malaysia which is a growing hub for port industries and tourism centre. The northern part offers pristine settings of a relax beach areas whereas the southern part are observed to be a growing centre for development. The serious erosion on soil deposit along the beach line presents vulnerable soil condition to soil liquefaction consists of sandy with low plasticity and shallow ground water. Moreover, local earthquake from nearby fault have present significant tremors over the past few years which need to be considered in the land usage or future development in catering the seismic loading. Liquefaction analysis based on field standard penetration of soil is applied on 546 boreholes scattered along the shoreline areas ranging 244 km of shoreline stretch. Based on simplified approach, it is found that more than 70% of the studied areas pose high liquefaction potential since there are saturated loose sand and silt deposits layer ranges at depth 3 m and up to 20 m. The presence of clay deposits and hard stratum at the remaining 30% of the studied areas shows good resistance to soil liquefaction hence making the area less significant to liquefaction hazard. Result indicates that liquefaction improving technique is advisable in future development of shoreline areas of Terengganu state.

  9. Shoreline oiling conditions in Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neff, J.M.; Owens, E.H.; Stoker, S.W.; McCormick, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    Following the Exxon Valdez oil spill of March 24, 1989, in Prince William Sound, Alaska, Exxon conducted comprehensive, systematic shoreline surveys in cooperation with federal and state authorities to obtain information on the distribution and magnitude of shoreline oiling and to identify natural and cultural resources requiring special protection. Similar joint surveys were performed during the springs of 1990, 1991, and 1992 on all Prince william Sound and Gulf of Alaska shorelines that were suspected of having remnants of weathered oil and that would benefit from further cleanup. In the springs of 1990, 1991, and 1992, isolated pockets of subsurface oil were found, chiefly in small scattered zones in coarse cobble/boulder sediments in the upper intertidal or supratidal zones. In 1991, about one-third of the subdivisions in Prince William Sound with surface oil also contained some subsurface oil. The areal extent of this subsurface oil declined by nearly 70% between 1991 and 1992, from about 37,000 m 2 to about 12,000 m 2 . Moreover, where subsurface oil remained in 1992, it was present in lesser amounts. Rates of oil removal were greatest on coastal sections treated early in the spring and summer of 1989. Where shoreline treatment was delayed, the subsequent rate of removal of oil from the shore by natural processes was slower. 27 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

  10. A chronology for glacial Lake Agassiz shorelines along Upham's namesake transect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepper, Kenneth; Buell, Alex W.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Lowell, Thomas V.

    2013-07-01

    Four traditionally recognized strandline complexes in the southern basin of glacial Lake Agassiz are the Herman, Norcross, Tintah and Campbell, whose names correspond to towns in west-central Minnesota that lie on a linear transect defined by the Great Northern railroad grade; the active corridor for commerce at the time when Warren Upham was mapping and naming the shorelines of Lake Agassiz (ca.1880-1895). Because shorelines represent static water planes, their extension around the lake margin establishes time-synchronous lake levels. Transitions between shoreline positions represent significant water-level fluctuations. However, geologic ages have never been obtained from sites near the namesake towns in the vicinity of the southern outlet. Here we report the first geologic ages for Lake Agassiz shorelines obtained at field sites along the namesake transect, and evaluate the emerging chronology in light of other paleoclimate records. Our current work from 11 sampling sites has yielded 16 independent ages. These results combined with a growing OSL age data set for Lake Agassiz's southern basin provide robust age constraints for the Herman, Norcross and Campbell strandlines with averages and standard deviations of 14.1 ± 0.3 ka, 13.6 ± 0.2 ka, and 10.5 ± 0.3 ka, respectively.

  11. Microbial diversity in oiled and un-oiled shoreline sediments in the Norwegian Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossman, M.J.; Prince, R.C.; Garrett, R.M.; Garrett, K.K.; Bare, R.E.; O'Neil, K.R.; Sowlay, M.R.; Hinton, S.M.; Lee, K.; Sergy, G.A.; Guenette, C.C.

    2000-01-01

    Field trials were conducted at an oiled shoreline on the island of Spitsbergen to examine the effect of nutrient addition on the metabolic status, potential for aromatic hydrocarbon degradation, and the phylogenetic diversity of the microbial community in oiled Arctic shoreline sediments. IF-30 intermediate fuel grade oil was applied to the shoreline which was then divided into four plots. One was left untreated and two were tilled. Four applications of fertilizer were applied over a two-month period. Phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA), gene probe and 16S microbial community analysis suggested that bioremediation stimulated the metabolic activity, increased microbial biomass and genetic potential for aromatic hydrocarbon degradation, and increased the population of hydrocarbon degradation of an oiled Arctic shoreline microbial community. The results of this study are in agreement with the results from stimulation of oil biodegradation in temperate marine environments. It was concluded that biodegradation and fertilizer addition are feasible treatment methods for oil spills in Arctic regions. 31 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

  12. Palaeoenvironment and shoreline displacement on Suursaari Island, the Gulf of Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atko Heinsalu

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The island of Suursaari in the middle of the Gulf of Finland is exceptionally high (175 m a.s.l.. Sediment profiles from one mire and three lakes were investigated using diatom and pollen analysis, radiocarbon dating and levelling of the elevations of ancient shorelines. The pollen stratigraphy of the Lounatkorkiasuo Mire sediment suggests a sedimentary record dating from the late Allerød.The development of late-glacial vegetation went through the same phases as in southern Finland, however these are probably somewhat earlier on the island of Suursaari. There are differences in the Holocene vegetation history of the higher and lower areas of the island. Lake Ruokalahenjärvi was isolated around 10 000 BP during the initial phase of the Yoldia Sea and the diatom assemblage indicates that at that time brackish-water flow had not penetrated into the Gulfof Finland. Diatoms from the isolation sediments of Lake Liivalahenjärvi and Lake Veteljärvi indicate a freshwater environment for the Yoldia Sea final phase at 9500–9600 BP. Levelling of coastal formations on Suursaari Island reveals that the Late Weichselian and early Holocene ancient shorelines are 5–15 m higher than expected from the isobase data for similar land uplift areas on the mainland.The anomalous shoreline levels on Suursaari Island may be explained byirregular land uplift. By the time of the Litorina Sea differences in shoreline altitudes had disappeared.

  13. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah Mary; Miner, Michael D.; Kulp, Mark; Bohling, Carl; Penland, Shea

    2009-12-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a rate of -0.16 km2/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this island area reduction to a rate of -1.01 km2/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from -11.4 m/year between 1922 and 1996 to -41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented. Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated -201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate of -38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that will eventually characterize the entire island chain.

  14. Shoreline resilience to individual storms and storm clusters on a meso-macrotidal barred beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of individual storms and storm clusters on shoreline recovery for the meso-to macrotidal, barred Biscarrosse beach in SW France, using 6 years of daily video observations. While the study area experienced 60 storms during the 6-year study period, only 36 storms

  15. Growth and decline of shoreline industry in Sydney estuary (Australia) and influence on adjacent estuarine sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, G F; Lean, J; Gunns, T

    2015-06-01

    Sydney estuary (Australia), like many urbanised waterways, is degraded due to an extended history of anthropogenic activity. Two major sources of contamination to this estuary are discharge by former shoreline industries and historic and contemporary catchment stormwater. The objectives of the present study were to document changes in shoreline land use from European settlement to the present day and determine the influence of this trend on the metal content of adjacent estuarine sediments. Temporal analysis of land use for seven time horizons between 1788 and 2010 showed rapid expansion of industry along much of the Sydney estuary foreshore soon after European settlement due to the benefits of easy and inexpensive access and readily available water for cooling and power. Shoreline industry attained maximum development in 1978 (32-km length) and declined rapidly to the present-day (9-km length) through redevelopment of industrial sites into medium- to high-density, high-value residential housing. Cores taken adjacent to 11 long-term industrial sites showed that past industrial practices contributed significantly to contamination of estuarine sediment. Subsurface metal concentrations were up to 35 times that of present-day surface sediment and over 100 times greater than natural background concentrations. Sedimentation rates for areas adjacent to shoreline industry were between 0.6 and 2.5 cm/year, and relaxation times were estimated at 50 to 100 years. Natural relaxation and non-disturbance of sediments may be the best management practice in most locations.

  16. Guidance For The Bioremediation Of Oil-Contaminated Wetlands, Marshes, And Marine Shorelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marine shorelines are important public and ecological resources that serve as a home to a variety of wildlife and provide public recreation. Marine oil spills, particularly large scale spill accidents, have posed great threats and cause extensive damage to the marine coastal env...

  17. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  18. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  19. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  20. UAV survey of a Thyrrenian micro-tidal beach for shoreline evolution update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Pugliano, Giovanni; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Mucerino, Luigi

    2015-04-01

    Coastal geomorphology requires increasingly accurate topographic information of the beach systems to perform reliable simulation of coastal erosion, flooding phenomena, and coastal vulnerability assessment. Among the range of terrestrial and aerial methods available to produce such a dataset, this study tests the utility of low-altitude aerial imageries collected by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The image-based approach was selected whilst searching for a rapid, inexpensive, and highly automated method, able to produce 3D information from unstructured aerial images. In particular, it was used to generate a high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) of the micro-tidal beach of Serapo - Gaeta (LT) in order to obtain recent update of erosional/accretional trends already established through historical shoreline evolution. A UAV exacopter (fig. 1a) was used, weighing about 2500g, carrying on board a GPS and multi-directional accelerometer to ensure a recovery of the beach features (fig. 1b) through a sweep with constant speed, direction and altitude. The on-board camera was a Canon 16M pixels, with fixed and constant focal takeoff in order to perform the 3D cloud points. Six adjacent strips were performed for the survey realization with pictures taken every second in sequence, in order to allow a minimum 80% overlap. A direct on site survey was also carried out with a DGPS for the placement of GPS markers and the geo-referencing of the final product (fig. 1c). Each flight with constant speed, direction and altitude recorded from 500 to 800 shots. The height of flight was dictated by the scale of the final report, an altitude of 100m was used for the beach survey. The topographic survey on the ground for the placement of the control points was performed with the Trimble R6 DGPS in RTK mode. The long-term shoreline evolution was obtained by a sixty-year historical shoreline time-series, through the analysis of a number of aerial photographs dating from 1954 to 2013. The

  1. Living Shorelines: Assessing Geomorphic Change and Water Quality in an Urban Waterway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggins, A.; Schwartz, M. C.; Schmutz, P. P.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, alternative strategies for shoreline armoring have become increasingly popular with coastal property owners. In Northwest Florida, local agencies implemented plans to attenuate wave action and reduce landward shore recession in an urban bayou by installing living shorelines. Living shorelines are constructed in the inter-tidal zones and incorporate both hard and soft structured stabilization. Generally, the hard component is fossilized oyster shells and the soft component is planted intertidal vegetation, such as Spartina alterniflora (Smooth cordgrass) and Juncus roemererianus (Black needlerush). Living shorelines were intended to comprise both ecological and societal implications by significantly slowing erosion processes for property owners, by utilizing oyster beds to improve water quality, and by fostering new ecological habitats in the marsh grasses. The issue presented with living shoreline management is long-term studies have not been carried out on these engineered systems. For this study, geospatial technology was utilized to create 3D images of terrain by interpolation of data points using a TotalStation to compute geomorphic change. Additionally, water samples were analyzed using traditional wet chemistry laboratory methods to determine total oxidized nitrogen (TON), ammonium, and orthophosphate content in water. Over a short three-month preliminary study, sediment accretion was observed primarily within the vegetation with the bulk of the erosion occurring around the oyster beds. TON was detected at levels between 10 µM and 30 µM, ammonium up to 5 µM, and orthophosphate was only detected in very low levels, consistently quality data will be used to establish baseline data for future research to determine volumetric geomorphic change,and to set a standard for water quality trends, surrounding oyster beds and vegetation in response to climatic events.

  2. Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

    2018-02-01

    One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

  3. Exploring the Dominant Modes of Shoreline Change Along the Central Florida Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlin, M. P.; Adams, P. N.; Jaeger, J. M.; MacKenzie, R.

    2017-12-01

    Geomorphic change within the littoral zone can place communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure at risk as the coastal environment responds to changes in sea level, sediment supply, and wave climate. At NASA's Kennedy Space Center near Cape Canaveral, Florida, chronic shoreline retreat currently threatens critical launch infrastructure, but the spatial (alongshore) pattern of this hazard has not been well documented. During a 5-year monitoring campaign (2009-2014), 86 monthly and rapid-response RTK GPS surveys were completed along this 11 km-long coastal reach in order to monitor and characterize shoreline change and identify links between ocean forcing and beach morphology. Results indicate that the study area can be divided into four behaviorally-distinct alongshore regions based on seasonal variability in shoreline change, mediated by the complex offshore bathymetry of the Cape Canaveral shoals. In addition, seasonal erosion/accretion cycles are regularly interrupted by large erosive storm events, especially during the anomalous wave climates produced during winter Nor'Easter storms. An effective tool for analyzing multidimensional datasets like this one is Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, a technique to determine the dominant spatial and temporal signals within a dataset. Using this approach, it is possible to identify the main time and space scales (modes) along which coastal changes are occurring. Through correlation of these changes with oceanographic forcing mechanisms, we are enabled to infer the principal drivers of shoreline change at this site. Here, we document the results of EOF analysis applied to the Cape Canaveral shoreline change dataset, and further correlate the results of this analysis with oceanographic forcings in order to reveal the dominant modes as well as drivers of coastal variability along the central Atlantic coast of Florida. This EOF-based analysis, which is the first such analysis in the region, is shedding

  4. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    investigated by satellite images, physical model tests, and one-dimensional numerical models. The current study uses a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical beach evolution model, developed based on existing methodologies. This model is mainly composed of four main submodels: a phase-averaged spectral wave......This study presents an application of a two-dimensional beach evolution model to a shoreline change problem at the Kizilirmak River mouth, which has been facing severe coastal erosion problems for more than 20 years. The shoreline changes at the Kizilirmak River mouth have been thus far...... transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  5. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  6. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  7. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  8. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  9. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  10. Entropy and optimality in river deltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor, Alejandro; Longjas, Anthony; Edmonds, Douglas A.; Zaliapin, Ilya; Georgiou, Tryphon T.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2017-10-01

    The form and function of river deltas is intricately linked to the evolving structure of their channel networks, which controls how effectively deltas are nourished with sediments and nutrients. Understanding the coevolution of deltaic channels and their flux organization is crucial for guiding maintenance strategies of these highly stressed systems from a range of anthropogenic activities. To date, however, a unified theory explaining how deltas self-organize to distribute water and sediment up to the shoreline remains elusive. Here, we provide evidence for an optimality principle underlying the self-organized partition of fluxes in delta channel networks. By introducing a suitable nonlocal entropy rate (nER) and by analyzing field and simulated deltas, we suggest that delta networks achieve configurations that maximize the diversity of water and sediment flux delivery to the shoreline. We thus suggest that prograding deltas attain dynamically accessible optima of flux distributions on their channel network topologies, thus effectively decoupling evolutionary time scales of geomorphology and hydrology. When interpreted in terms of delta resilience, high nER configurations reflect an increased ability to withstand perturbations. However, the distributive mechanism responsible for both diversifying flux delivery to the shoreline and dampening possible perturbations might lead to catastrophic events when those perturbations exceed certain intensity thresholds.

  11. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  12. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  13. Geomorphology of the Elwha River and its Delta: Chapter 3 in Coastal habitats of the Elwha River, Washington--biological and physical patterns and processes prior to dam removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warrick, Jonathan A.; Draut, Amy E.; McHenry, Michael L.; Miller, Ian M.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Beirne, Matthew M.; Stevens, Andrew Stevens; Logan, Joshua B.; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Warrick, Jonathan A.; Magirl, Christopher S.

    2011-01-01

    The removal of two dams on the Elwha River will introduce massive volumes of sediment to the river, and this increase in sediment supply in the river will likely modify the shapes and forms of the river and coastal landscape downstream of the dams. This chapter provides the geologic and geomorphologic background of the Olympic Peninsula and the Elwha River with emphasis on the present river and shoreline. The Elwha River watershed was formed through the uplift of the Olympic Mountains, erosion and movement of sediment throughout the watershed from glaciers, and downslope movement of sediment from gravitational and hydrologic forces. Recent alterations to the river morphology and sediment movement through the river include the two large dams slated to be removed in 2011, but also include repeated bulldozing of channel boundaries, construction and maintenance of flood plain levees, a weir and diversion channel for water supply purposes, and engineered log jams to help enhance river habitat for salmon. The shoreline of the Elwha River delta has changed in location by several kilometers during the past 14,000 years, in response to variations in the local sea-level of approximately 150 meters. Erosion of the shoreline has accelerated during the past 80 years, resulting in landward movement of the beach by more than 200 meters near the river mouth, net reduction in the area of coastal wetlands, and the development of an armored low-tide terrace of the beach consisting primarily of cobble. Changes to the river and coastal morphology during and following dam removal may be substantial, and consistent, long-term monitoring of these systems will be needed to characterize the effects of the dam removal project.

  14. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  15. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  16. The ecology, status, and conservation of marine and shoreline birds on the west coast of Vancouver Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeer, K.; Butler, R.W.; Morgan, K.H.

    1992-01-01

    A symposium was held to combine various disciplines to provide a review of current knowledge about the marine biology of the west coast of Vancouver Island, with a particular emphasis on birds. Papers were presented on the physical and biological environment of the study region, the population and breeding ecology of marine and shoreline birds, the distribution of marine and shoreline birds at sea, the effects of oil pollution on the bird population, and the conservation of marine and shoreline birds. Separate abstracts have been prepared for two papers from this symposium

  17. Ancient shorelines of Gujarat, India, during the Indus civilization (Late Mid-Holocene): A study based on archaeological evidences

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gaur, A.S.; Vora, K.H.

    or production of salt, etc. as indicators of palaeo-shorelines. As of today, these sites are located away from the present shoreline. Lothal, believed to be the oldest dockyard in the world, is located at the head of the Gulf of Khambhat, now situated about... shorelines of Gujarat, India, during the Indus civilization (Late Mid-Holocene): A study ... 16-Nov-06http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/jul10/articles29.htm centre for acquiring and processing raw materials for manufacturing articles for export. Discovery of two...

  18. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  19. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  20. Are mangroves as tough as a seawall? Flow-vegetation interaction in a living shoreline restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, K. M.; Kitsikoudis, V.; Spiering, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to assess the impact of an established living shoreline restoration on near-shore hydraulics, shoreline slope, and sediment texture and organic matter content. We collected data from three 100 m shoreline sites within an estuarine lagoon in Canaveral National Seashore: one restored; one that had been stabilized by a seawall; and one in a reference condition stabilized by mature mangrove vegetation. The living shoreline site was restored five years prior with a breakwater of oyster shell bags, emergent marsh grasses (Spartina alterniflora), and mangroves (Rhizophora mangle and Avicennia germinans). We sampled water depth and incoming velocity profiles of the full water column at 2 Hz using a 2 MHz Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP, Nortek), stationed down-looking, approximately 10 m offshore. A 2 - 3 cm velocity profile above the bed was sampled on the shoreline at 100 Hz, using a Nortek Vectrino profiler. In restored and reference sites, the onshore probe was placed within vegetation. We surveyed vegetation upstream of the probe for species and diameter at water level. Windspeed and direction were collected 2 m above the water surface. Shorelines were surveyed in transects using GPS survey equipment. Five sediment cores were collected to 20 cm depth from both onshore and offshore of each site. Individual cores were processed for loss on ignition before being pooled by site for analysis of grain size distribution. While incoming velocity profiles were similar between sites, hydraulic conditions onshore within the vegetated sites deviated from the seawall site, which was devoid of vegetation. Offshore to onshore gradients in shear stress, mean velocity, and turbulent kinetic energy differed widely between sites, despite similar wind and tidal conditions. Sediment grain sizes were finer and contained more organic matter in the restored and reference sites than in the seawall site. Profiles of the restored and seawall sites were similar, though

  1. Optimal index related to the shoreline dynamics during a storm: the case of Jesolo beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archetti, Renata; Paci, Agnese; Carniel, Sandro; Bonaldo, Davide

    2016-05-01

    The paper presents an application of shoreline monitoring aimed at understanding the response of a beach to single storms and at identifying its typical behaviour, in order to be able to predict shoreline changes and to properly plan the defence of the shore zone. On the study area, in Jesolo beach (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy), a video monitoring station and an acoustic wave and current profiler were installed in spring 2013, recording, respectively, images and hydrodynamic data. The site lacks previous detailed hydrodynamic and morphodynamic data. Variations in the shoreline were quantified in combination with available near-shore wave conditions, making it possible to analyse the relationship between the shoreline displacement and the wave features. Results denote characteristic patterns of beach response to storm events, and highlight the importance of improving beach protection in this zone, notwithstanding the many interventions experimented in the last decades. A total of 31 independent storm events were selected during the period October 2013-October 2014, and for each of them synthetic indexes based on storm duration, energy and maximum wave height were developed and estimated. It was found that the net shoreline displacements during a storm are well correlated with the total wave energy associated to the considered storm by an empirical power law equation. A sub-selection of storms in the presence of an artificial dune protecting the beach (in the winter season) was examined in detail, allowing to conclude that the adoption of this coastal defence strategy in the study area can reduce shoreline retreat during a storm. This type of intervention can sometimes contribute to prolonging overall stability not only in the replenished zone but also in downdrift areas. The implemented methodology, which confirms to be economically attractive if compared to more traditional monitoring systems, proves to be a valuable system to monitor beach erosive processes and

  2. Medium-term shoreline evolution of the mediterranean coast of Andalusia (SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Vincenzo; Manno, Giorgio; Messina, Enrica; Anfuso, Giorgio; Suffo, Miguel

    2015-04-01

    Coastal environment is a dynamic system in which numerous natural processes are continuously actuating and interacting among them. As a result, geomorphologic, physical and biological characteristics of coastal environments are constantly changing. Such dynamic balance is nowadays seriously threatened by the strong and increasing anthropic pressure that favors erosion processes, and the associated loss of environmental, ecologic and economic aspects. Sandy beaches are the most vulnerable environments in coastal areas. The aim of this work was to reconstruct the historical evolution of the Mediterranean coastline of Andalusia, Spain. The investigated area is about 500 km in length and includes the provinces of Cadiz, Malaga, Granada and Almeria. It is essentially composed by cliffed sectors with sand and gravel pocket beaches constituting independent morphological cells of different dimensions. This study was based on the analysis of aerial photos and satellite images covering a period of 55 years, between 1956 and 2011. Aerial photos were scanned and geo-referenced in order to solve scale and distortion problems. The shoreline was considered and mapped through the identification of the wet / dry sand limit which coincides with the line of maximum run-up; this indicator - representing the shoreline at the moment of the photo - is the most easily identifiable and representative one in microtidal coastal environments. Since shoreline position is linked to beach profile characteristics and to waves, tide and wind conditions at the moment of the photo, such parameters were taken into account in the calculation of shoreline position and changes. Specifically, retreat/accretion changes were reconstructed applying the DSAS method (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) proposed by the US Geological Survey. Significant beach accretion was observed at Playa La Mamola (Granada), with +1 m/y, because the construction of five breakwaters, and at Playa El Cantal (Almeria) and close

  3. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

    2004-11-01

    In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

  4. River engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vries, M.

    1993-01-01

    One dimension models - basic eauations, analytical models, numberical models. One dimensional models -suspended load, roughness and resistance of river beds. Solving river problems - tools, flood mitigation, bank protection.

  5. Environmental disturbance and conservation of marine and shoreline birds on the west coast of Vancouver Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, K.H.; Butler, R.W.; Vermeer, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    Loss of habitat and oiling of birds represent two major threats to marine and shoreline bird populations on Vancouver Island's west coast, since their effects are widespread and cumulative. Offshore tanker traffic and local inshore shipments of petroleum products expose the coast to high risks of oiling. Large numbers of birds are most at risk when concentrated in relatively small areas, such as highly productive feeding areas, at communal roosting sites, and around nesting colonies. Logging of mature and old-growth forests has led to destruction of the nesting habitat of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus), while industrial development of estuaries, mudflats, and spawning grounds of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) has diminished feeding habitats for other marine and shoreline birds. Fisheries operations, human disturbance of colonies, and introduced predators, notably the raccoon (Procyon lotor) and mink (Mustela vison), have impacted upon local populations. Management actions and research needs to mitigate these threats are addressed. 40 refs

  6. Flood Disaster Mitigation as Revealed by Cawang-Manggarai River Improvement of Ciliwung River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Airlangga Mardjono

    2015-06-01

    The final result of this simulation shows that Scenario 3 gives the lowest water surface elevation profile. Scenario 3 is subjected to river normalization, revetment works along the river, and also flood control structure improvement through the additional sluice gate on Manggarai Barrage. This scenario results 167 cm, 163 cm, 172 cm, 179 cm, 167 cm and 171 cm or 17,60%, 17,16%, 18,09%, 18,76%, 17,38% and 17,72% of maximum water level reduction respectively over cross section number S 20 to S 25, for several simulations with 100 year of design discharge. Keywords: Simulation, river improvement, flood water surface elevation.

  7. Research into the further development of the LIMPET shoreline wave energy plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This report summarises the findings of a project focussing on technical issues associated with the design of the LIMPET shoreline oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy plant. Fifteen tasks are listed as the objectives of the project which was carried out to broaden the knowledge of the wave environment and the construction and operation of a wave energy plant. The experience gained in LIMPET instrumentation, control systems, and grid integration issues are discussed.

  8. Spatiotemporal shoreline dynamics of Namibian coastal lagoons derived by a dense remote sensing time series approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behling, Robert; Milewski, Robert; Chabrillat, Sabine

    2018-06-01

    This paper proposes the remote sensing time series approach WLMO (Water-Land MOnitor) to monitor spatiotemporal shoreline changes. The approach uses a hierarchical classification system based on temporal MNDWI-trajectories with the goal to accommodate typical uncertainties in remote sensing shoreline extraction techniques such as existence of clouds and geometric mismatches between images. Applied to a dense Landsat time series between 1984 and 2014 for the two Namibian coastal lagoons at Walvis Bay and Sandwich Harbour the WLMO was able to identify detailed accretion and erosion progressions at the sand spits forming these lagoons. For both lagoons a northward expansion of the sand spits of up to 1000 m was identified, which corresponds well with the prevailing northwards directed ocean current and wind processes that are responsible for the material transport along the shore. At Walvis Bay we could also show that in the 30 years of analysis the sand spit's width has decreased by more than a half from 750 m in 1984-360 m in 2014. This ongoing cross-shore erosion process is a severe risk for future sand spit breaching, which would expose parts of the lagoon and the city to the open ocean. One of the major advantages of WLMO is the opportunity to analyze detailed spatiotemporal shoreline changes. Thus, it could be shown that the observed long-term accretion and erosion processes underwent great variations over time and cannot a priori be assumed as linear processes. Such detailed spatiotemporal process patterns are a prerequisite to improve the understanding of the processes forming the Namibian shorelines. Moreover, the approach has also the potential to be used in other coastal areas, because the focus on MNDWI-trajectories allows the transfer to many multispectral satellite sensors (e.g. Sentinel-2, ASTER) available worldwide.

  9. Shoreline Erosion and Proposed Control at Experimental Facility 15-Spesutie Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    distribution is unlimited. 1 1. Introduction Coastal erosion is the wearing away of land and the removal of beach or dune sediments by wave action...the land , air, and water defines the wetted perimeter where land use and clearing practices have taken on an adversarial role with regard to the...stand with approximately 30–40 ft of manicured lawn to the shoreline. There are no trees on the range proper, with only a smattering of indigenous

  10. Morphodynamic implications for shoreline management of the western-Mediterranean sector of Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frihy, Omran E.

    2009-09-01

    Although the western-Mediterranean coast of Egypt between Sallum and Alexandria, ~550 km long, has maintained a considerable equilibrium throughout history, developers have built traditional protective structures in an effort to form sheltered recreational beaches without taking into consideration its geomorphologic characteristics, coastal processes and their harmful impact on the coastal environment and human safety. The improper practices in this environmentally valuable region have induced us to undertake an initiative to carry out a morphodynamic analysis to provide a framework for understanding the relationship between coastal morphology and the prevailing dynamic forces. Based on the degree of natural protection or wave sheltering, the study shoreline can be categorized into four distinct morphotypical stretches: (1) high-energy wave-exposed shores and the outer margins of the rocky headlands, (2) moderate to high wave-energy beaches along semi-exposed embayments and bays mostly downdrift of the rocky headlands, (3) low-wave energy at semi-exposed headland lee-sided and pocket beaches, and (4) calm wave-sheltered enclosing water basins for safe anchorages, moorings and recreation beaches. The results deducted will have practical applications for shoreline management initiatives regarding sustained sites suitable for future beachfront development such as safe swimming conditions, sport facilities, water intakes and sheltered areas for vessels. In addition, benefits realized by the understanding of the morphodynamic processes would enhance our awareness of the significance of the role of western coast morphodynamics in supporting sustainable development via shoreline management. As far as sustainability is concerned, the selection of appropriate sites would help avoiding or minimizing the formation of the hard structures needed for creating safe recreation beaches. On a national scale, results reached could provide reliable database for information that can be

  11. Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnley, Sarah M.; Miner, Michael; Brock, John C.

    2011-01-01

    Results from historical (1855-2005) shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier-island arc. The detailed results of this study were published in December 2009 as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project.

  12. Review of historical monitoring data on Techa River contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobiova, M. I.; Degteva, M. O.; Burmistrov, D. S.; Safronova, N. G.; Kozheurov, V. P.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, B. A.; Neta, P. I. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    The Mayak Production Association was the first Russian site for the production and separation of plutonium. The extensive increase in plutonium production during 1948-1955, as well as the absence of reliable waste-management technology, resulted in significant releases of liquid radioactive effluent into the rather small Techa River. This resulted in chronic external and internal exposure of about 30,000 residents of riverside communities; these residents form the cohort of an epidemiologic investigation. Analysis of the available historical monitoring data indicates that the following reliable data sets can be used for reconstruction of doses received during the early periods of operation of the Mayak Production Association: Temporal pattern of specific beta activity of river water for several sites in the upper Techa region since July 1951; average annual values of specific beta activity of river water and bottom sediments as a function of downstream distance for the whole river since 1951; external gamma-exposure rates near the shoreline as a function of downstream distance for the whole Techa River since 1952; and external gamma-exposure rate as a function of distance from the shoreline for several sites in the upper and middle Techa since 1951.

  13. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Upper Coast of Texas: ESIL (ESI Shoreline Types - Lines)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIL data set contains lines representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of the Upper Coast of Texas, classified according to the Environmental Sensitivity...

  14. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Upper Coast of Texas: ESIP (ESI Shoreline Types - Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ESIP data set contains polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of the Upper Coast of Texas, classified according to the Environmental...

  15. Sensitivity of Coastal Environments and Wildlife to Spilled Oil: Northern California: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types - Lines and Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector lines and polygons representing the shoreline and coastal habitats of Northern California, classified according to the Environmental...

  16. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  17. Nile Delta exhibited a spatial reversal in the rates of shoreline retreat on the Rosetta promontory comparing pre- and post-beach protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoneim, Eman; Mashaly, Jehan; Gamble, Douglas; Halls, Joanne; AbuBakr, Mostafa

    2015-01-01

    The coastline of the Nile Delta experienced accelerated erosion since the construction of the Aswan High Dam in 1964 and, consequently, the entrapment of a large amount of river sediments behind it. The coastline of the Rosetta promontory showed the highest erosion in the Delta with an average retreat rate of 137.4 m year- 1. In 1991, in an effort to mitigate sediment loss, a 4.85 km long seawall was built on the outer margin of the promontory. For additional beach protection, 15 groins were constructed along the eastern and western sides of the seawall in 2003 and 2005. To quantify erosion and accretion patterns along the Rosetta promontory, 11 Landsat images acquired at unequal intervals during a 40 year time span (1972 and 2012) were analyzed. The positions of shorelines were automatically extracted from satellite imagery and compared with three very high resolution QuickBird and WorldView2 images for data validation. Analysis of the rates of shoreline change revealed that the construction of the seawall was largely successful in halting the recession along the tip of the promontory, which lost 10.8 km2 prior to coastal protection. Conversely, the construction of the 15 groins has negatively affected the coastal morphology of the promontory and caused a reversal from accretion to fast erosion along the promontory leeside, where some segments of the shoreline have undergone as much as 30.8 m year- 1 of erosion. Without hard structures, the tip of the Rosetta promontory would have retreated 2.3 km by 2013 and lost 7.2 km2 of land. About 10% of this land is deltaic fertile cultivated farms. Moreover, without additional protection the sides of the promontory will lose about 1.3 km2 of land and the coastline would recede at an average rate of 200 m by 2020. Unless action is taken, coastal erosion, enhanced by rising sea level, will steadily eat away the Nile Delta at an alarming rate. The successful demonstration of the advocated procedures in this study could be

  18. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  19. Application of Low-Cost Fixed-Wing UAV for Inland Lakes Shoreline Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templin, Tomasz; Popielarczyk, Dariusz; Kosecki, Rafał

    2017-10-01

    One of the most important factors that influences the performance of geomorphologic parameters on urban lakes is the water level. It fluctuates periodically, causing shoreline changes. It is especially significant for typical environmental studies like bathymetric surveys, morphometric parameters calculation, sediment depth changes, thermal structure, water quality monitoring, etc. In most reservoirs, it can be obtained from digitized historical maps or plans or directly measured using the instruments such as: geodetic total station, GNSS receivers, UAV with different sensors, satellite and aerial photos, terrestrial and airborne light detection and ranging, or others. Today one of the most popular measuring platforms, increasingly applied in many applications is UAV. Unmanned aerial system can be a cheap, easy to use, on-demand technology for gathering remote sensing data. Our study presents a reliable methodology for shallow lake shoreline investigation with the use of a low-cost fixed-wing UAV system. The research was implemented on a small, eutrophic urban inland reservoir located in the northern part of Poland—Lake Suskie. The geodetic TS, and RTK/GNSS measurements, hydroacoustic soundings and experimental aerial mapping were conducted by the authors in 2012-2015. The article specifically describes the UAV system used for experimental measurements, the obtained results and the accuracy analysis. Final conclusions demonstrate that even a low-cost fixed-wing UAV can provide an excellent tool for accurately surveying a shallow lake shoreline and generate valuable geoinformation data collected definitely faster than when traditional geodetic methods are employed.

  20. A multi-indicator approach for identifying shoreline sewage pollution hotspots adjacent to coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abaya, Leilani M; Wiegner, Tracy N; Colbert, Steven L; Beets, James P; Carlson, Kaile'a M; Kramer, K Lindsey; Most, Rebecca; Couch, Courtney S

    2018-04-01

    Sewage pollution is contributing to the global decline of coral reefs. Identifying locations where it is entering waters near reefs is therefore a management priority. Our study documented shoreline sewage pollution hotspots in a coastal community with a fringing coral reef (Puakō, Hawai'i) using dye tracer studies, sewage indicator measurements, and a pollution scoring tool. Sewage reached shoreline waters within 9 h to 3 d. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were high and variable, and δ 15 N macroalgal values were indicative of sewage at many stations. Shoreline nutrient concentrations were two times higher than those in upland groundwater. Pollution hotspots were identified with a scoring tool using three sewage indicators. It confirmed known locations of sewage pollution from dye tracer studies. Our study highlights the need for a multi-indicator approach and scoring tool to identify sewage pollution hotspots. This approach will be useful for other coastal communities grappling with sewage pollution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Lake Izabal (Guatemala) shoreline detection and inundated area estimation from ENVISAT ASAR images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, C.; Gomez-Enri, J.; Alonso, J. J.; Villares, P.

    2008-10-01

    The surface extent of a lake reflects its water storage variations. This information has important hydrological and operational applications. However, there is a lack of information regarding this subject because the traditional methodologies for this purposes (ground surveys, aerial photos) requires high resources investments. Remote sensing techniques (optical/radar sensors) permit a low cost, constant and accurate monitoring of this parameter. The objective of this study was to determine the surface variations of Lake Izabal, the largest one in Guatemala. The lake is located close to the Caribbean Sea coastline. The climate in the region is predominantly cloudy and rainy, being the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) the best suited sensor for this purpose. Although several studies have successfully used SAR products in detecting land-water boundaries, all of them highlighted some sensor limitations. These limitations are mainly caused by roughened water surfaces caused by strong winds which are frequent in Lake Izabal. The ESA's ASAR data products were used. From the set of 9 ASAR images used, all of them have wind-roughened ashore waters in several levels. Here, a chain of image processing steps were applied in order to extract a reliable shoreline. The shoreline detection is the key task for the surface estimation. After the shoreline extraction, the inundated area of the lake was estimated. In-situ lake level measurements were used for validation. The results showed good agreement between the inundated areas estimations and the lake level gauges.

  2. Shoreline changes in reef islands of the Central Pacific: Takapoto Atoll, Northern Tuamotu, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Pillet, Valentin

    2017-04-01

    Atoll reef islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While accelerated sea-level rise is expected to destabilize reef islands, ocean warming and acidification are considered as major threats to coral reef growth, which is of primary importance for the persistence of islands and of food supply to islanders. Using multi-date aerial imagery, shoreline and island changes between 1969 and 2013 were assessed on Takapoto Atoll, Northern Tuamotu region, in French Polynesia. Results show that over the 44-year study period, 41% of islands were stable in area while 33% expanded and 26% contracted. Island expansion was the dominant mode of change on the leeward side of the atoll. Tropical Cyclone Orama (category 3, 1983) contributed to shoreline and island change on the windward side of the atoll through the reworking of previous storm deposits and the injection of fresh sediments in the island system (with up to 62% of an island's land area being covered with fresh sediments). Human activities contributed significantly to shoreline and island change throughout the atoll through infrastructure construction, the removal of the indigenous vegetation from a number of islets and sediment mining.

  3. Coral reefs as the first line of defense: Shoreline protection in face of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

    2017-06-01

    Coral reefs are responsible for a wide array of ecosystem services including shoreline protection. However, the processes involved in delivering this particular service have not been fully understood. The objective of the present review was to compile the main results in the literature regarding the study of shoreline protection delivered by coral reefs, identifying the main threats climate change imposes to the service, and discuss mitigation and recovery strategies that can and have been applied to these ecosystems. While different zones of a reef have been associated with different levels of wave energy and wave height attenuation, more information is still needed regarding the capacity of different reef morphologies to deliver shoreline protection. Moreover, the synergy between the main threats imposed by climate change to coral reefs has also not been thoroughly investigated. Recovery strategies are being tested and while there are numerous mitigation options, the challenge remains as to how to implement them and monitor their efficacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) system for data acquisition during shoreline assessment field surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.; Owens, E.H.; Laflamme, A.; Laforest, S.; Clement, S.

    2004-01-01

    The Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Technique (SCAT) is a recognized method in North America to collect shoreline information and report observations on an oil spill. The long processing time required to analyze SCAT observations sometimes causes delays in oil spill response. Computerized systems have been developed to address this problem, but data entry of SCAT within such system involves much effort and is subject to potential errors. This paper described the development of a tool dedicated to the field capture of SCAT data on a Windows CE based Personal Digital Assistant (PDA). The system is compatible with both the SCAT methodology and Global Positioning System technology. A prototype of the system was tested during oil spills in Ontario and Nova Scotia. This paper described how the field data collection system was designed, developed and tested. Details of some user interfaces were provided to demonstrate how the large paper Shoreline Oiling Summary forms were made to fit on the small display screen of pocket-size devices. 8 refs., 1 tab., 12 figs

  5. Preliminary assessment of bioengineered fringing shoreline reefs in Grand Isle and Breton Sound, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Peyre, Megan K.; Schwarting, Lindsay; Miller, Shea

    2013-01-01

    Restoration of three-dimensional shell habitats in coastal Louisiana presents a valuable and potentially self-sustaining approach to providing shoreline protection and critical nekton habitat and may contribute to water quality maintenance. The use of what has been called “living shorelines” is particularly promising because in addition to the hypothesized shoreline protection services, it is predicted that, if built and located in viable sites, these living shorelines may ultimately contribute to water quality maintenance through filtration of bivalves and may enhance nekton habitat. This approach, however, has not been tested extensively in different shallow water estuarine settings; understanding under what conditions a living shoreline must have to support a sustainable oyster population, and where these reefs may provide valuable shoreline protection, is key to ensuring that this approach provides an effective tool for coastal restoration. This project gathered preliminary data on the sustainability and shoreline stabilization of three large bioengineered fringing reefs located in Grand Isle, Lake Eloi, and Lake Fortuna, Louisiana. We collected preconstruction and postconstruction physiochemical and biological data by using a before-after-control-impact approach to evaluate the effectiveness of these living shoreline structures on reducing marsh erosion, enabling reef sustainability, and providing other ecosystem benefits. Although this project was originally designed to compare reef performance and impacts across three different locations over 2 years, delays in construction because of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted in reefs being built from 12 to 18 months later than anticipated. As a result, monitoring postconstruction was severely limited. One reef, Grand Isle, was completed in March 2011 and monitored up to 18 months postcreation, whereas Lake Eloi and Lake Fortuna reefs were not completed until January 2012, and only 8 months of

  6. Interaction of oil and mineral fines on shorelines: review and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, Edward H.; Lee, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    The interaction of fine mineral particles with stranded oil in an aqueous medium reduces the adhesion of the oil to solid surfaces, such as sediments or bedrock. The net result is the formation of stable, micron-sized, oil droplets that disperse into the water column. In turn, the increase in surface area makes the oil more available for biodegradation. This interaction, referred to as oil-mineral aggregate (OMA) formation, can explain how oiled shorelines are cleaned naturally in the absence of wave action in very sheltered coastal environments. OMA formation also plays an important role in the efficacy of shoreline treatment techniques, such as physical mixing and sediment relocation that move oiled sediments into the zone of wave action to promote the interaction between oil and mineral fines. Successful application of these shoreline treatment options has been demonstrated at two spill events (the Tampa Bay response in Florida and the Sea Empress operation in Wales) and at a controlled oil spill experiment in the field (the 1997 Svalbard ITOSS program). Sediment relocation harnesses the hydraulic action of waves so that the processes of fine-particle interaction and physical abrasion usually occur in tandem on open coasts. There has been no evidence of significant detrimental side-effects of residual oil in pelagic or benthic environments associated with the use of these treatment options to enhance rates of dispersion and oil biodegradation

  7. Interaction of oil and mineral fines on shorelines: review and assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owens, Edward H.; Lee, Kenneth

    2003-12-01

    The interaction of fine mineral particles with stranded oil in an aqueous medium reduces the adhesion of the oil to solid surfaces, such as sediments or bedrock. The net result is the formation of stable, micron-sized, oil droplets that disperse into the water column. In turn, the increase in surface area makes the oil more available for biodegradation. This interaction, referred to as oil-mineral aggregate (OMA) formation, can explain how oiled shorelines are cleaned naturally in the absence of wave action in very sheltered coastal environments. OMA formation also plays an important role in the efficacy of shoreline treatment techniques, such as physical mixing and sediment relocation that move oiled sediments into the zone of wave action to promote the interaction between oil and mineral fines. Successful application of these shoreline treatment options has been demonstrated at two spill events (the Tampa Bay response in Florida and the Sea Empress operation in Wales) and at a controlled oil spill experiment in the field (the 1997 Svalbard ITOSS program). Sediment relocation harnesses the hydraulic action of waves so that the processes of fine-particle interaction and physical abrasion usually occur in tandem on open coasts. There has been no evidence of significant detrimental side-effects of residual oil in pelagic or benthic environments associated with the use of these treatment options to enhance rates of dispersion and oil biodegradation.

  8. Effects of oil on the rate and trajectory of Louisiana marsh shoreline erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClenachan, Giovanna; Eugene Turner, R; Tweel, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    Oil can have long-term detrimental effects on marsh plant health, both above- and belowground. However, there are few data available that quantify the accelerated rate of erosion that oil may cause to marshes and the trajectory of change. Between November 2010 and August 2012, we collected data on shoreline erosion, soil strength, per cent cover of Spartina alterniflora, and marsh edge overhang at 30 closely spaced low oil and high oil sites in Bay Batiste, Louisiana. Surface oil samples were taken one meter into the marsh in February 2011. All high oiled sites in Bay Batiste were contaminated with Macondo 252 oil (oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 20 April–15 July 2010). The results suggest that there is a threshold where soil parameters change dramatically with a relatively small increase in oil concentration in the soil. Heavy oiling weakens the soil, creating a deeper undercut of the upper 50 cm of the marsh edge, and causing an accelerated rate of erosion that cascades along the shoreline. Our results demonstrate that it could take at least 2 yr to document the effects heavy oiling has had on the marsh shoreline. The presence of aboveground vegetation alone may not be an appropriate indicator of recovery. (letter)

  9. Tracking of the LAZIO region shoreline from orthophotos AGEA 2014 and implementation of the database layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscotti, Erik; Pizzeghello, Nicola; Murri, Chiara; Colistra, Graziano; Batzu, Ilenia

    2018-05-01

    The integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is the modern approach used in the study, management and exploitation of the coastal area in various applications whereas in this area are concentrated interests concerning the most different fields, economic, environmental, legal, scientific and social. The coast is in fact inherently unstable by nature and consequently its characterization should take into account a continuous monitoring and updating of its variations and trends. The coastal area is that portion of land emerged and submerged containing the shoreline and is subject to both continental and marine geomorphic processes. The shoreline is the clearest expression of how this sector is particularly dynamic. Proper analysis and representation of the shape and nature of the coastal area are a first step to provide reliable and comparable tools to those who study and manage it. This paper presents the results of a study aimed to the realization of an integrated approach in the extraction of the shoreline using a case study of Lazio coast as a part of the European Project "Intercoast". This work is based on national and international directives on the coastal zone, whether linked to a more terrestrial or maritime area, still within the broad definition of Hydrography provided by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO). The spatial information extracted by direct or indirect measurements of the most dynamic coastal sector emerged and submerged (emerged coast and sea bottom) have been provided by associating with a budget of measurement uncertainties, and assessing the quality.

  10. Utilizing topobathy LIDAR datasets to identify shoreline variations and to direct charting updates in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gremillion, S. L.; Wright, S. L.

    2017-12-01

    Topographic and bathymetric light detection and ranging (LIDAR), remote sensing tools used to measure vertical elevations, are commonly employed to monitor shoreline fluctuations. Many of these publicly available datasets provide wide-swath, nearshore topobathy which can be used to extract shoreline positions and analyze coastlines experiencing the greatest temporal and spatial variability. This study focused on the shorelines of Mississippi's Jackson County to determine the minimum time for significant positional changes to occur, relative to currently published NOAA navigational charts. Many of these dynamic shorelines are vulnerable to relative sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal erosion. Utilizing LIDAR datasets from 1998-2015, shoreline positions were derived and analyzed against NOAA's Continually Updated Shoreline Product (CUSP) to recommend the frequency at which future surveys should be conducted. Advisement of charting updates were based upon the resolution of published charts, and the magnitude of observed variances. Jackson County shorelines were divided into four areas for analysis; the mainland, Horn Island, Petit Bois Island (PBI), and a dredge spoil area west of PBI. The mainland shoreline experienced an average change rate of +0.57 m/yr during the study period. This stability was due to engineering structures implemented in the early 1920's to protect against tropical storms. Horn Island, the most stable barrier island, changed an average of -1.34 m/yr, while PBI had an average change of -2.70 m/yr throughout. Lastly, the dredge spoil area changed by +9.06 m/yr. Based on these results, it is recommended that LIDAR surveys for Jackson County's mainland be conducted at least every two years, while surveys of the offshore barrier islands be conducted annually. Furthermore, insufficient LIDAR data for Round Island and the Round Island Marsh Restoration Project highlight these two areas as priority targets for future surveys.

  11. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  12. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  13. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  14. Deepwater Horizon MC252 shoreline data from the Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) containing shoreline exposure and data related to the shoreline exposure model, coastal wetland vegetation sites and other datasets collected between 2010-01-01 to 2015-01-01 for the DWH response in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NCEI Accession 0163814)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Archival Information Package (AIP) contains Environmental Resource Management Application (ERMA) GIS layers including shoreline exposure model for beach and...

  15. Ancient shoreline reconstruction at a Maritime Maya Port in Yucatan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaijel, Roy; Goodman, Beverly; Glover, Jeffrey; Rissolo, Dominique; Beddows, Patricia; Carter, Alice; Smith, Derek; Ben Avraham, Zvi

    2017-04-01

    Throughout history, worldwide, a major part of the human experience has been to adapt to changing landscapes, and environments. These adaptations can take many forms, sometimes as innovation, manipulation of the conditions, behavioral or technological changes; and in some cases the decision to abandon the area. The northeastern Yucatan peninsula, home of the Maritime maya port site Vista-Alegre, shows signs of such human changes, though little is known about the corresponding landscape and environment. Vista Alegre is located on the meeting point of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, at the north-eastern tip of the Yucatan peninsula, in the back of the Holbox lagoon. The site was inhabited from the 9th century B.C until the mid 16th century A.D., with an apparent two century abandonment phase from the mid 7th to 9th century A.D. A multidisciplinary effort ("Costa Escondida project") has been investigating the life of past Mayan inhabitants and the broader connections of the site to the Maritime Maya trade network. One of the questions that has arisen is what were the mutual influences between the inhabitants to their surrounding environment. In order to answer that question the site's shoreline geomorphology and climate history is being reconstructed for the past 2-3000 years. The reconstruction is based on multiproxy analysis of marine sediment cores and surface samples, combined with archaeological data. The study presented focuses on the shoreline shifts at the site, revealing the complexity, and significant affect of sea level rise on the marine environment of Vista Alegre. This study contributes to our understanding of the site's possible functions, the environmental challenges the local inhabits contended with, and the identification of ancient harboring locations. The results show five depositional phases over the past 2-3000 years. The ancient shoreline maps show a general trend of sea level rise, though with varying rates over time that relates well

  16. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  17. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  19. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  20. Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

    2017-12-01

    As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ˜ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies

  1. Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

    2017-07-21

    in 2000, 2006, and 2012. Survival probabilities were lower for males from the shoreline areas in 2002. Between 2001 and 2014, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 59 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 53 percent. By combining information from capture-recapture models and size composition data, we concluded that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2014. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for 20,981 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2005 and 2009 were high (greater than 0.88), but both sexes of SNS experienced lower and more variable survival in 2001–04 and 2010–13. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 77 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 74 percent between 2001 and 2014. Decreases in abundance for both sexes likely are greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. The status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for SNS.

  2. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  3. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  4. Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hlavcova, K; Szolgay, J; Kohnova, S; Balint, G

    2008-01-01

    The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient simulations made by 3 GCMs - ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.

  5. Charles River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information on the efforts of the US EPA, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, the municipalities within the Charles River Watershed and nongovernmental organizations to improve the water quality of the Charles River.

  6. Sheen surveillance: An environmental monitoring program subsequent to the 1989 Exxon Valdez shoreline cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taft, D.G.; Egging, D.E.; Kuhn, H.A.

    1995-01-01

    In the fall of 1989, an aerial surveillance program was implemented to locate oil sheens (or slicks) originating from shorelines affected by the Exxon Valdez spill. The objectives of the program were to identify any oil on the water that warranted response and to identify those sections of shoreline that would be priority candidates for further cleanup in 1990. The program initially surveyed the entire affected area, but, because proportionally fewer sheens were spotted in the Gulf of Alaska, the program was refocused on Prince Williams Sound in early 1990. The surveillance program consisted of frequent low-altitude flights with trained observers in a deHavilland Twin otter outfitted with observation ports and communication equipment. The primary surveillance technique used was direct visual observation. Other techniques, including photography, were tested but proved less effective. The flights targeted all shorelines of concern, particularly those near fishing, subsistence, and recreational areas.the observers attempted to locate all sheens, estimate their size and color, ad identify the source of the oil found in the sheen. Size and color were used to estimate the volume of oil in each sheen. Samples were collected whenever possible during the summer of 1990 using a floating Teflon trademark sampling device that was developed for easy deployment from a boat or the pontoon of a float plane. Forty four samples were analyzed by UV-fluorescence spectroscopy. Eleven of these samples were also analyzed by GC/MS. In general, the analyses confirmed the observers' judgment of source. 16 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  7. Drivers of shoreline change in atoll reef islands of the Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Salvat, Bernard; Salmon, Camille

    2017-11-01

    This paper increases by around 30% the sample of atoll reef islands studied from a shoreline change perspective, and covers an under-studied geographical area, i.e. the French Tuamotu Archipelago. It brings new irrefutable evidences on the persistence of reef islands over the last decades, as 77% of the 111 study islands exhibited areal stability while 15% and 8% showed expansion and contraction, respectively. This paper also addresses a key research gap by interpreting the major local drivers controlling recent shoreline and island change, i.e. tropical cyclones and seasonal swells, sediment supply by coral reefs and human activities. The 1983 tropical cyclones had contrasting impacts, depending on the shoreline indicator considered. While they generally caused a marked retreat of the stability line, the base of the beach advanced at some locations, as a result of either sediment reworking or fresh sediment inputs. The post-cyclone fair weather period was characterised by reversed trends indicating island morphological readjustment. Cyclonic waves contributed to island upwards growth, which reached up to 1 m in places, through the transfer of sediments up onto the island surface. However, the steep outer slopes of atolls limited sediment transfers to the reef flat and island system. We found that 57% of the study islands are disturbed by human activities, including 'rural' and uninhabited islands. Twenty-six percent of these islands have lost the capacity to respond to ocean-climate related pressures, including the 'capital' islands concentrating atolls' population, infrastructures and economic activities, which is preoccupying under climate change.

  8. Bioremediation of oil on shoreline environments: development of techniques and guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.; Merlin, F.X.

    1999-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, the development of operational procedures to accelerate the natural biodegradation rates of oil spilled on shoreline environments has been the focus of numerous research programs. As a result, bioremediation has been demonstrated to be an effective oil spill countermeasure for use in cobble, sand beach, salt marsh, and mudflat environments. Today, studies are directed towards improving the efficacy and evaluating the ecological impacts of available bioremediation agents and/or procedures. This review describes the latest developments in bioremediation strategies and their key success factors. (author)

  9. Observations and modelling of shoreline and multiple sandbar behaviour on a high-energy meso-tidal beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Splinter, Kristen D.; Gonzalez, Maria V. G.; Oltman-Shay, Joan; Rutten, Jantien; Holman, Robert

    2018-05-01

    This contribution describes 10 years of observed sandbar and shoreline cross-shore position variability at a meso-tidal, high energy, multiple sandbar beach. To examine relationships between the temporal variability in shoreline/sandbar position with offshore wave forcing, a simple equilibrium model is applied to these data. The analysis presented in this paper shows that the equilibrium model is skilled at predicting the alongshore-averaged, time-varying position of the shoreline (R = 0.82) and the outer sandbar position (R = 0.75), suggesting that these end members of the nearshore sediment system are most strongly influenced by offshore wave forcing in a predictable, equilibrium-forced manner. The middle and inner bars are hypothesized to act as sediment transport pathways between the shoreline and the outer bar. Prediction of these more transient features by an equilibrium model was less skilful. Model coefficients reveal that these two end members (outer bar and shoreline) in the sediment system act in opposite directions to changes in the annual offshore wave forcing. During high wave events, sediment is removed from the shoreline and deposited in the nearshore sediment system with simultaneous landward retreat of the shoreline and offshore migration of the outer sandbar. While both end member features have cycles at annual and inter-annual scales, their respective equilibrium response factor differs by almost a factor of 10, with the shoreline responding around an inter-annual mean (ϕ = 1000 days) and the outer bar responding around a seasonal mean (ϕ = 170 days). The model accurately predicts shoreline response to both mild (e.g. 2004/05, 2008/09) and extreme (e.g. 2005/06, 2009/10) winter storms, as well as their summer recovery. The more mobile and dynamic outer sandbar is well-modelled during typical winters. Summer onshore sandbar migration of the outer bar in 2005 and 2006 is under-predicted as the system transitioned between a triple (winter) and

  10. Global scenarios and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

  11. Decadal changes in the land use/land cover and shoreline along the coastal districts of southern Gujarat, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, A; Balaji, R

    2015-07-01

    The coastal zone along the districts of Surat, Navsari, and Valsad in southern Gujarat, India, is reported to be facing serious environmental challenges in the form of shoreline erosion, wetland loss, and man-made encroachments. This study assesses the decadal land use/ land cover (LULC) changes in these three districts for the years 1990, 2001, and 2014 using satellite datasets of Landsat TM, ETM, and OLI. The LULC changes are identified by using band ratios as a pre-classification step, followed by implementation of hybrid classification (a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification). An accuracy assessment is carried out for each dataset, and the overall accuracy ranges from 90 to 95%. It is observed that the spatial extents of aquaculture, urban built-up, and barren classes have appreciated over time, whereas the coverage of mudflats has depreciated due to rapid urbanization. The changes in the shoreline of these districts have also been analyzed for the same years, and significant changes are found in the form of shoreline erosion. The LULC maps prepared as well as the shoreline change analysis done for this study area will enable the local decision makers to adopt better land-use planning and shoreline protection measures, which will further aid in sustainable future developments in this region.

  12. Simulation of the landfall of the Deepwater Horizon oil on the shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boufadel, Michel C; Abdollahi-Nasab, Ali; Geng, Xiaolong; Galt, Jerry; Torlapati, Jagadish

    2014-08-19

    We conducted simulations of oil transport from the footprint of the Macondo Well on the water surface throughout the Gulf of Mexico, including deposition on the shorelines. We used the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) and the same parameter values and input adopted by NOAA following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout. We found that the disappearance rate of oil off the water surface was most likely around 20% per day based on satellite-based observations of the disappearance rate of oil detected on the sea surface after the DWH wellhead was capped. The simulations and oil mass estimates suggest that the mass of oil that reached the shorelines was between 10,000 and 30,000 tons, with an expected value of 22,000 tons. More than 90% of the oil deposition occurred on the Louisiana shorelines, and it occurred in two batches. Simulations revealed that capping the well after 2 weeks would have resulted in only 30% of the total oil depositing on the shorelines, while capping after 3 weeks would have resulted in 60% deposition. Additional delay in capping after 3 weeks would have averted little additional shoreline oiling over the ensuing 4 weeks.

  13. Application of the AMBUR R package for spatio-temporal analysis of shoreline change: Jekyll Island, Georgia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Chester W.; Alexander, Clark R.; Bush, David M.

    2012-04-01

    The AMBUR (Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R) package for the R software environment provides a collection of functions for assisting with analyzing and visualizing historical shoreline change. The package allows import and export of geospatial data in ESRI shapefile format, which is compatible with most commercial and open-source GIS software. The "baseline and transect" method is the primary technique used to quantify distances and rates of shoreline movement, and to detect classification changes across time. Along with the traditional "perpendicular" transect method, two new transect methods, "near" and "filtered," assist with quantifying changes along curved shorelines that are problematic for perpendicular transect methods. Output from the analyses includes data tables, graphics, and geospatial data, which are useful in rapidly assessing trends and potential errors in the dataset. A forecasting function also allows the user to estimate the future location of the shoreline and store the results in a shapefile. Other utilities and tools provided in the package assist with preparing and manipulating geospatial data, error checking, and generating supporting graphics and shapefiles. The package can be customized to perform additional statistical, graphical, and geospatial functions, and, it is capable of analyzing the movement of any boundary (e.g., shorelines, glacier terminus, fire edge, and marine and terrestrial ecozones).

  14. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  15. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  16. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  17. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  18. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  19. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse

  20. Modeling of Flood Mitigation Structures for Sarawak River Sub-basin Using Info Works River Simulation (RS)

    OpenAIRE

    Rosmina Bustami; Charles Bong; Darrien Mah; Afnie Hamzah; Marina Patrick

    2009-01-01

    The distressing flood scenarios that occur in recent years at the surrounding areas of Sarawak River have left damages of properties and indirectly caused disruptions of productive activities. This study is meant to reconstruct a 100-year flood event that took place in this river basin. Sarawak River Subbasin was chosen and modeled using the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approach using InfoWorks River Simulation (RS), in combination with Geographical Information S...

  1. Providing support for day-to-day monitoring of shoreline cleanup operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarche, A.; Tarpley, J.

    1997-01-01

    Experiences gained during the 'Cape Mohican' incident in October 1996, in San Francisco Bay, were recounted and proposed as a potential example of day-to-day monitoring, evaluation and reporting of shoreline cleanup effort. During this cleanup a set of communications procedures, progress reports and maps were developed which should be equally useful in other similar situations. The cartographic representations were specially highlighted as they focused on ways to provide a clear picture of the short term modifications in oiling conditions of the affected shoreline. The most important lesson learned from this oil spill was the importance of having personnel and equipment sufficiently matched to the task in order to evaluate oil conditions, produce cleanup recommendations, execute and communicate the status of the cleanup effort as fast, and as efficiently and effectively as possible. It was clearly demonstrated that unless the decision process is streamlined and supported with the best, most up-to-date information, the efforts of the cleanup team would be seriously undermined. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  2. Sedimentation and erosion in Lake Diefenbaker, Canada: solutions for shoreline retreat monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghian, Amir; de Boer, Dirk; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

    2017-09-15

    This study looks into sedimentation and erosion rates in Lake Diefenbaker, a prairie reservoir, in Saskatchewan, Canada, which has been in operation since 1968. First, we looked at the historical data in all different formats over the last 70 years, which includes data from more than 20 years before the formation of the lake. The field observations indicate high rates of shoreline erosion, especially in the upstream portion as a potential region for shoreline retreat. Because of the great importance of this waterbody to the province, monitoring sedimentation and erosion rates is necessary for maintaining the quality of water especially after severe floods which are more common due to climate change effects. Second, we used Google Maps Elevation API, a new tool from Google that provides elevation data for cross sections drawn between two points, by drawing 24 cross sections in the upstream area extending 250 m from each bank. This feature from Google can be used as an easy and fast monitoring tool, is free of charge, and provides excellent control capabilities for monitoring changes in cross-sectional profiles.

  3. Multidecadal (1960–2011 shoreline changes in Isbjørnhamna (Hornsund, Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zagórski Piotr

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A section of a gravel-dominated coast in Isbjørnhamna (Hornsund, Svalbard was analysed to calculate the rate of shoreline changes and explain processes controlling coastal zone development over last 50 years. Between 1960 and 2011, coastal landscape of Isbjørnhamna experienced a significant shift from dominated by influence of tide-water glacier and protected by prolonged sea-ice conditions towards storm-affected and rapidly changing coast. Information derived from analyses of aerial images and geomorphological mapping shows that the Isbjørnhamna coastal zone is dominated by coastal erosion resulting in a shore area reduction of more than 31,600 m2. With ~3,500 m2 of local aggradation, the general balance of changes in the study area of the shore is negative, and amounts to a loss of more than 28,000 m2. Mean shoreline change is −13.1 m (−0.26 m a−1. Erosional processes threaten the Polish Polar Station infrastructure and may damage of one of the storage buildings in nearby future.

  4. Ikaite precipitation by mixing of shoreline springs and lake water, Mono Lake, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, James L.; Stine, Scott; Rosenbauer, Robert J.; Fitzpatrick, John A.; Stafford, Thomas W., Jr.

    1993-08-01

    Metastable ikaite (CaCO 3·6H 2O) forms abundantly during winter months along the south shoreline of Mono Lake where shoreline springs mix with lake water. Ikaite precipitates because of its decreased solubility at low temperature and because of orthophosphate-ion inhibition of calcite and aragonite. During the spring some of the ikaite is transformed to anhydrous CaCO 3 and is incorporated into tufa, but most is dispersed by wave action into the lake where it reacts to form gaylussite (Na 2Ca(CO 3) 2· 5H 2O). Spring waters have low pH values, are dominantly Ca-Na-HCO 3, have low radiocarbon activities, and are mixtures of deep-seated geothermal and cold groundwaters. Chemical modeling reveals that precipitation of CaCO 3 can occur over a broad range of mixtures of spring and lake water with a maximum production occurring at 96% spring water and 4% lake water. Under these conditions all the Ca and a significant fraction of the CO 3 of the precipitate is spring supplied. A radiocarbon age of 19,580 years obtained on a natural ikaite sample supports this conclusion. With the springs supplying a large and probably variable portion of the carbonate, and with apparent 14C age of the carbonate varying from spring to spring, tufa of similar actual antiquity may yield significantly different 14C dates, making tufa at this location unsuitable for absolute age dating by the radiocarbon method.

  5. Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

    2003-01-01

    in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

  6. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  7. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  8. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  9. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  10. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  11. Probabilistic construction of inflow scenarios at a reservoir; Construction probabiliste de scenarios d'apports a un reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seidou, O.; Robert, B.; Marche, C.; Rousselle, J. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Departement des Genies Civil, Geologique et des Mines, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Lefebvre, M. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Departement de Mathematiques et de Genie Industriel, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-02-01

    Development of risk indicators to aid in decisions affecting the operation of hydric systems is described. The significant part of the risk affecting hydric systems is the uncertainty surrounding future inflows. A method to construct inflow scenarios starting from an arbitrary date 'y' of the year is developed using a Markovian process which also has been used to model short-term uncertainty in stream flow. The text is divided in five parts: (1) methodology, (2) terminology, (3) theory, (4) application, and (5) results. The scenarios are built to reproduce the statistical behaviour of the river or reservoir and have the shape of an event tree whose structure is defined by the user before application of the method. Application of the method is illustrated by two examples, one involving the Harricana River, the other the Cabonga Reservoir, both situated in the province of Quebec. 11 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs.

  12. Assessing juvenile salmon rearing habitat and associated predation risk in a lower Snake River reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Hatten, James R.; Trachtenbarg, David A

    2015-01-01

    Subyearling fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Columbia River basin exhibit a transient rearing strategy and depend on connected shoreline habitats during freshwater rearing. Impoundment has greatly reduced the amount of shallow-water rearing habitat that is exacerbated by the steep topography of reservoirs. Periodic dredging creates opportunities to strategically place spoils to increase the amount of shallow-water habitat for subyearlings while at the same time reducing the amount of unsuitable area that is often preferred by predators. We assessed the amount and spatial arrangement of subyearling rearing habitat in Lower Granite Reservoir on the Snake River to guide future habitat improvement efforts. A spatially explicit habitat assessment was conducted using physical habitat data, two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling and a statistical habitat model in a geographic information system framework. We used field collections of subyearlings and a common predator [smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu)] to draw inferences about predation risk within specific habitat types. Most of the high-probability rearing habitat was located in the upper half of the reservoir where gently sloping landforms created low lateral bed slopes and shallow-water habitats. Only 29% of shorelines were predicted to be suitable (probability >0.5) for subyearlings, and the occurrence of these shorelines decreased in a downstream direction. The remaining, less suitable areas were composed of low-probability habitats in unmodified (25%) and riprapped shorelines (46%). As expected, most subyearlings were found in high-probability habitat, while most smallmouth bass were found in low-probability locations. However, some subyearlings were found in low-probability habitats, such as riprap, where predation risk could be high. Given their transient rearing strategy and dependence on shoreline habitats, subyearlings could benefit from habitat creation efforts in the lower

  13. Anthropogenic effects on shoreface and shoreline changes: Input from a multi-method analysis, Agadir Bay, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aouiche, Ismail; Daoudi, Lahcen; Anthony, Edward J.; Sedrati, Mouncef; Ziane, Elhassane; Harti, Abderrazak; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In many situations, the links between shoreline fluctuations and larger-scale coastal change embracing the shoreface are not always well understood. In particular, meso-scale (years to decades) sand exchanges between the shoreface and the shoreline, considered as important on many wave-dominated coasts, are rather poorly understood and difficult to identify. Coastal systems where sediment transport is perturbed by engineering interventions on the shoreline and shoreface commonly provide fine examples liable to throw light on these links. This is especially so where shoreface bathymetric datasets, which are generally lacking, are collected over time, enabling more or less fine resolution of the meso-scale coastal sediment budget. Agadir Bay and the city of Agadir together form one of the two most important economic development poles on the Atlantic coast of Morocco. Using a combined methodological approach based on wave-current modelling, bathymetric chart-differencing, determination of shoreline fluctuations, and beach topographic surveying, we highlight the close links between variations in the bed of the inner shoreface and the bay shoreline involving both cross-shore and longshore sand transport pathways, sediment budget variations and new sediment cell patterns. We show that the significant changes that have affected the bay shoreline and shoreface since 1978 clearly reflect anthropogenic impacts, notably blocking of alongshore sand transport by Agadir harbour, completed in 1988, and the foundations of which lie well beyond the depth of wave closure. Construction of the harbour has led to the creation of a rapidly accreting beach against an original portion of rocky shoreline updrift and to a net sand loss exceeding 145,000 m3/year between 1978 and 2012 over 8.5 km2of the bay shoreface downdrift. Shoreline retreat has been further exacerbated by sand extraction from aeolian dunes and by flattening of these dunes to make space for tourist infrastructure. Digital

  14. Αutomated 2D shoreline detection from coastal video imagery: an example from the island of Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velegrakis, A. F.; Trygonis, V.; Vousdoukas, M. I.; Ghionis, G.; Chatzipavlis, A.; Andreadis, O.; Psarros, F.; Hasiotis, Th.

    2015-06-01

    Beaches are both sensitive and critical coastal system components as they: (i) are vulnerable to coastal erosion (due to e.g. wave regime changes and the short- and long-term sea level rise) and (ii) form valuable ecosystems and economic resources. In order to identify/understand the current and future beach morphodynamics, effective monitoring of the beach spatial characteristics (e.g. the shoreline position) at adequate spatio-temporal resolutions is required. In this contribution we present the results of a new, fully-automated detection method of the (2-D) shoreline positions using high resolution video imaging from a Greek island beach (Ammoudara, Crete). A fully-automated feature detection method was developed/used to monitor the shoreline position in geo-rectified coastal imagery obtained through a video system set to collect 10 min videos every daylight hour with a sampling rate of 5 Hz, from which snapshot, time-averaged (TIMEX) and variance images (SIGMA) were generated. The developed coastal feature detector is based on a very fast algorithm using a localised kernel that progressively grows along the SIGMA or TIMEX digital image, following the maximum backscatter intensity along the feature of interest; the detector results were found to compare very well with those obtained from a semi-automated `manual' shoreline detection procedure. The automated procedure was tested on video imagery obtained from the eastern part of Ammoudara beach in two 5-day periods, a low wave energy period (6-10 April 2014) and a high wave energy period (1 -5 November 2014). The results showed that, during the high wave energy event, there have been much higher levels of shoreline variance which, however, appeared to be similarly unevenly distributed along the shoreline as that related to the low wave energy event, Shoreline variance `hot spots' were found to be related to the presence/architecture of an offshore submerged shallow beachrock reef, found at a distance of 50-80 m

  15. Puerto Rico ESI and RSI: ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index Shoreline Types) / RSI (Reach Sensitivity Index River and Stream Types)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set comprises the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) and Reach Sensitivity Index (RSI) data for Puerto Rico. ESI data characterize estuarine...

  16. Shoreline distribution and parasite infection of black-striped pipefish Syngnathus abaster Risso, 1827 in the lower River Danube

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ondračková, Markéta; Slováčková, Iveta; Trichkova, T.; Polačik, Matej; Jurajda, Pavel

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 4 (2012), s. 590-596 ISSN 0175-8659 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC522 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Pomphorhynchus laevis * water * size * invasions * habitats * history * fishes * sex Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.902, year: 2012

  17. Wildlife use of back channels associated with islands on the Ohio River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadnik, A.K.; Anderson, James T.; Wood, P.B.; Bledsoe, K.

    2009-01-01

    The back channels of islands on the Ohio River are assumed to provide habitat critical for several wildlife species. However, quantitative information on the wildlife value of back channels is needed by natural resource managers for the conservation of these forested islands and embayments in the face of increasing shoreline development and recreational boating. We compared the relative abundance of waterbirds, turtles, anurans, and riparian furbearing mammals during 2001 and 2002 in back and main channels of the Ohio River in West Virginia. Wood ducks (Aix sponsa), snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina), beavers (Castor canadensis), and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) were more abundant in back than main channels. Spring peepers (Pseudacris crucifer) and American toads (Bufo americanus) occurred more frequently on back than main channels. These results provide quantitative evidence that back channels are important for several wildlife species. The narrowness of the back channels, the protection they provide from the main current of the river, and their ability to support vegetated shorelines and woody debris, are characteristics that appear to benefit these species. As a conservation measure for important riparian wildlife habitat, we suggest limiting building of piers and development of the shoreline in back channel areas. ?? 2009, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  18. Linking rapid erosion of the Mekong River delta to human activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Edward J; Brunier, Guillaume; Besset, Manon; Goichot, Marc; Dussouillez, Philippe; Nguyen, Van Lap

    2015-10-08

    As international concern for the survival of deltas grows, the Mekong River delta, the world's third largest delta, densely populated, considered as Southeast Asia's most important food basket, and rich in biodiversity at the world scale, is also increasingly affected by human activities and exposed to subsidence and coastal erosion. Several dams have been constructed upstream of the delta and many more are now planned. We quantify from high-resolution SPOT 5 satellite images large-scale shoreline erosion and land loss between 2003 and 2012 that now affect over 50% of the once strongly advancing >600 km-long delta shoreline. Erosion, with no identified change in the river's discharge and in wave and wind conditions over this recent period, is consistent with: (1) a reported significant decrease in coastal surface suspended sediment from the Mekong that may be linked to dam retention of its sediment, (2) large-scale commercial sand mining in the river and delta channels, and (3) subsidence due to groundwater extraction. Shoreline erosion is already responsible for displacement of coastal populations. It is an additional hazard to the integrity of this Asian mega delta now considered particularly vulnerable to accelerated subsidence and sea-level rise, and will be exacerbated by future hydropower dams.

  19. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  20. A comparative study of the flux and fate of the Mississippi and Yangtze river sediments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Xu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Large rivers play a key role in delivering water and sediment into the global oceans. Large-river deltas and associated coastlines are important interfaces for material fluxes that have a global impact on marine processes. In this study, we compare water and sediment discharge from Mississippi and Yangtze rivers by assessing: (1 temporal variation under varying climatic and anthropogenic impacts, (2 delta response of the declining sediment discharge, and (3 deltaic lobe switching and Holocene sediment dispersal patterns on the adjacent continental shelves. Dam constructions have decreased both rivers’ sediment discharge significantly, leading to shoreline retreat along the coast. The sediment dispersal of the river-dominated Mississippi Delta is localized but for the tide-dominated Yangtze Delta is more diffuse and influenced by longshore currents. Sediment declines and relative sea level rises have led to coastal erosion, endangering the coasts of both rivers.

  1. Anthropogenic influences on shoreline and nearshore evolution in the San Francisco Bay coastal system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, K.L.; Barnard, P.L.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ~54 million m3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore

  2. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  3. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  4. Implementing the shoreline cleanup assessment team process in the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debusschere, K.; Penland, S.; Ramsey, K.E.; Lindstedt, D.; Westphal, K.A.; Seal, R.; McBride, R.A.; Byrnes, M.R.; Owens, E.

    1993-01-01

    Louisiana State University (LSU) and Woodward-Clyde Consultants are working with state and federal agencies and industry through the LSU Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Research and Response Program to establish a shoreline cleanup assessment team program (SCAT) in the Gulf of Mexico. Each SCAT team consists of a coastal geomorphologist and ecologist (and archaeologist when appropriate), as well as representatives from the responsible federal, state, and private agencies. This cooperative effort is aimed at identifying oil spill impact and interagency coastal resource concerns and recommendations, and developing a cleanup strategy based on interagency cooperation and concurrence within a systematic and standardized framework. The SCAT program provides interagency coordination, SCAT preparedness, spill drill participation, interagency training, geographic information systems services, monitoring, and routine aerial videotape surveys. It also offers technical support to the decision-making process within spill response operations

  5. Toxicity of oiled sediments treated with bioremediation agents: A shoreline experiment in Delaware, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearna, A.; Doe, K.; Fisher, W.; Lee, K.; Mueller, C.

    1995-01-01

    Using a randomized complete block design, a battery of five pore water and sediment bioassays were used to monitor and compare toxicity among un-oiled, oiled (light Nigerian crude) and nutrient and bacteria-treated shoreline plots on a sandy beach. Tests included sea urchin fertilization, water and modified-solid phase microtox, 10-day amphipod survival and grass shrimp embryo bioassays. During the 13-week study, bioremediation treatment with nutrients and/or bacteria did not decrease toxicity relative to that in untreated plots. Results from at least one bioassay suggested that, relative to no treatment, treatment may have increased toxicity for several weeks. The least and most sensitive tests were sea urchin fertilization (pore water) and 10-day amphipod test, respectively. Coupled with chemical monitoring, the study produced a large data-base for evaluating toxic concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbons in sandy sediments

  6. Tsunami Waves Extensively Resurfaced the Shorelines of an Early Martian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, J. A. P.; Fairen, A. G.; Linares, R.; Zarroca, M.; Platz, T.; Komatsu, G.; Kargel, J. S.; Gulick, V.; Jianguo, Y.; Higuchi, K.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Viking image-based mapping of a widespread deposit covering most of the northern low-lands of Mars led to the proposal by Parker et al. that the deposit represents the vestiges of an enormous ocean that existed approx. 3.4 Ga. Later identified as the Vastitas Borealis Formation, the latest geologic map of Mars identifies this deposit as the Late Hesperian lowland unit (lHl). This deposit is typically bounded by raised lobate margins. In addition, some margins have associated rille channels, which could have been produced sub-aerially by the back-wash of high-energy tsunami waves. Radar-sounding data indicate that the deposit is ice-rich. However, until now, the lack of wave-cut shoreline features and the presence of lobate margins have remained an im-pediment to the acceptance of the paleo-ocean hypothesis.

  7. Bioremediation of diesel from a rocky shoreline in an arid tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerin, Turlough F

    2015-10-15

    A non invasive sampling and remediation strategy was developed and implemented at shoreline contaminated with spilt diesel. To treat the contamination, in a practical, cost-effective, and safe manner (to personnel working on the stockpiles and their ship loading activity), a non-invasive sampling and remediation strategy was designed and implemented since the location and nature of the impacted geology (rock fill) and sediment, precluded conventional ex-situ and any in-situ treatment where drilling is required. A bioremediation process using surfactant, and added N & P and increased aeration, increased the degradation rate allowing the site owner to meet their regulatory obligations. Petroleum hydrocarbons decreased from saturation concentrations to less than detectable amounts at the completion of treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Petroleum hydrocarbons in sediment from the northern Gulf of Mexico shoreline, Texas to Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbauer, Robert J.; Campbell, Pamela L.; Lam, Angela; Lorenson, T.D.; Hostettler, Frances D.; Thomas, Burt; Wong, Florence L.

    2011-01-01

    Petroleum hydrocarbons were extracted and analyzed from shoreline sediment collected from the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) coastline that could potentially be impacted by Macondo-1 (M-1) well oil. Sediment was collected before M-1 well oil made significant local landfall and analyzed for baseline conditions by a suite of diagnostic petroleum biomarkers. Oil residue in trace quantities was detected in 45 of 69 samples. With the aid of multivariate statistical analysis, three different oil groups, based on biomarker similarity, were identified that were distributed geographically along the nGOM from Texas to Florida. None of the sediment hydrocarbon extracts correlated with the M-1 well oil extract, however, the similarity of tarballs collected at one site (FL-18) with the M-1 well oil suggests that some oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill may have been transported to this site in the Florida Keys, perhaps by a loop current, before that site was sampled.

  9. Geochemical distribution of trace metals and organochlorine contaminants of a lake ontario shoreline marsh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glooschenko, W A; Capocianco, J; Coburn, J; Glooschenko, V

    1981-02-01

    Rattray Marsh, an 8 ha marsh on the Lake Ontario shoreline at Mississauga, Ontario, is an important local habitat for waterfowl and shorebirds during spring and fall migration. A study was conducted to determine the distribution of nutrients (carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus) and potential trace metal and organochlorine pollutants in the marsh as evidenced by the sedimentary concentrations of these compounds. Generally, copper, zinc, lead, and mercury were higher in concentration in local soils than in Lake Ontario sediments. Metals and organic carbon levels did not correlate, and the metals appeared to be associated with silts and clays. Organochlorine contaminants include p,p1-DDE, p,p1-DDD, p,p1-DDT, alpha-chlordane, PCB, mirex, and HCB.

  10. Future rise of the sea level: consequences and strategies on the shoreline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teisson, C.

    1991-11-01

    The Mean Sea Level may rise in a near future due to the warming of the atmosphere associated with the 'greenhouse effect'. The alarming estimations issued in the 1980's (several meters of surelevation in the next centuries) are now lowered: the ice sheets, the melting of which could induce such a rise, do not present signs of instability. A rise from 30 to 50 cm is likely to occur in the middle of the next century; there is a probability of 25% that the rise of sea level relative to the year 1980 stands beyond 1 meter by 2100. The consequences of such a rise on the shoreline and the maritime works are reviewed, and planning strategies are discussed. This study has been performed in the framework of a convention between EDF-LNH and the Sea State Secretary (Service Technique des Ports Maritimes et Voies Navigables) 41 refs., 31 figs., 6 tabs

  11. Methodologies for estimating toxicity of shoreline cleaning agents in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, J.R.Jr.; Stransky, B.C.; Schwartz, M.J.; Snyder, B.J.; Lees, D.C.; Michel, J.; Reilly, T.J.

    1996-01-01

    Four methodologies that could be used in a portable kit to estimate quantitative and qualitative information regarding the toxicity of oil spill cleaning agents, were evaluated. Onshore cleaning agents (SCAs) are meant to enhance the removal of treated oil from shoreline surfaces, and should not increase adverse impacts to organisms in a treated area. Tests, therefore, should be performed with resident organisms likely to be impacted during the use of SCAs. The four methodologies were Microtox T M, fertilization success for echinoderm eggs, byssal thread attachment in mussels, and righting and water-escaping ability in periwinkle snails. Site specific variations in physical and chemical properties of the oil and SCAs were considered. Results were provided, showing all combinations of oils and SCAs. Evaluation showed that all four methodologies provided sufficient information to assist a user in deciding whether or not the use of an SCA was warranted. 33 refs., 7 tabs., 11 figs

  12. 75 FR 41881 - Notice of Intent To Prepare a Shoreline Restoration and Management Plan/Environmental Impact...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-19

    ... lakeshore; and improved water quality. DATES: Any comments on the scope of issues to be addressed in the EIS... Restoration and Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore... impact statement (EIS) for a Shoreline Restoration and Management Plan (SRMP) for Indiana Dunes National...

  13. Shoreline changes during the last 2000 years on the Saurashtra coast of India: Study based on archaeological evidences

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gaur, A.S.; Vora, K.H.; Sundaresh

    . In this communication an attempt is made to study shoreline and sea-level changes during the last 2000 years on the basis of archaeological evidence. Archaeological excavations undertaken at Bet Dwarka (western most part of India) revealed an interesting cultural...

  14. Application of remote sensing and GIS for detection of long-term mangrove shoreline changes in Ca Mau, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran Thi, V.; Phan Nguyen, H.; Tien Thi Xuan, A.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F.; Koedam, N.

    2013-12-01

    Ca Mau at the southern tip of Vietnam supports a large area of mangroves and has a high value for biodiversity and scenic beauty. This area is affected by erosion along the East Sea and accretion along the Gulf of Thailand, leading to the loss of huge stretches of mangroves along the East Sea and, in some cases, loss of ecosystems services provided by mangroves. In this study, we used remotely sensed aerial (1953), Landsat (1979, 1988, and 2000) and SPOT (1992, 1995, 2004, 2008 and 2009, and 2011) images and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify the rate of mangrove shoreline change for a 58 yr period. There were 1129 transects sampled at 100 m intervals along the mangrove shoreline and two statistical methods, namely End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR), were used to calculate the rate of change of mangrove shorelines and distance from 1953 to 2011. The study confirms erosion and accretion respectively are significant at the Eastern and Western Sea sides of the Ca Mau tip. The East Sea side had a mean erosion LRR of 33.24 m yr-1. For the accretion trend at the Gulf of Thailand side averaged at rate of 40.65 m yr-1. The results are important in predicting changes of coastal ecosystem boundaries and enable advanced planning for specific sections of coastline, to minimize or neutralize losses, to inform provincial rehabilitation efforts and reduce threats to coastal development and human safety.

  15. Application of remote sensing and GIS for detection of long-term mangrove shoreline changes in Mui Ca Mau, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran Thi, V.; Tien Thi Xuan, A.; Phan Nguyen, H.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F.; Koedam, N.

    2014-07-01

    Mui Ca Mau at the southern tip of Vietnam supports a large area of mangroves and has a high value for biodiversity and scenic beauty. This area is affected by erosion along the East Sea and accretion along the Gulf of Thailand, leading to the loss of huge stretches of mangroves along the East Sea and, in some cases, loss of environmental and ecosystem services provided by mangroves. In this study, we used remotely sensed aerial (1953), Landsat (1979, 1988 and 2000) and SPOT (1992, 1995, 2004, 2008, 2009 and 2011) images and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify the rate of mangrove shoreline change for a 58 yr period. There were 1129 transects sampled at 100 m intervals along the mangrove shoreline and two statistical methods, namely end point rate (EPR) and linear regression rate (LRR), were used to calculate the rate of change of mangrove shorelines and distance from 1953 to 2011. The study confirms that erosion and accretion, respectively, are significant at the East Sea and Gulf of Thailand sides of Mui Ca Mau. The East Sea side had a mean erosion LRR of 33.24 m yr-1. The accretion trend at the Gulf of Thailand side had an average rate of 40.65 m yr-1. The results are important in predicting changes of coastal ecosystem boundaries and enable advanced planning for specific sections of coastline, to minimize or neutralize losses, to inform provincial rehabilitation efforts and reduce threats to coastal development and human safety.

  16. Monitoring and Deformation Analysis of Groynes Using Tls at the River Elbe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschirschwitz, F.; Mechelke, K.; Jansch, H.; Kersten, T. P.

    2016-06-01

    To enter the Port of Hamburg, one of Europe's busiest ports all vessels need to navigate around 145 km along the Elbe river, a tide influenced navigation channel. To protect the Elbe shoreline from erosion and to channel the waterway groynes (rigid hydraulic structures) have been built along the river. In the past years since ca. 2001 there has been a large increase in damage of groynes structural integrity at parts of the German waterways. The reason for this was determined in the ever growing size of container vessels passing by and inducing long periodical primary waves which have such a force that they erode the groynes rock structure. To analyse and improve the groynes structural resistance for vessel-induced long periodical wave loads an in-situ study is carried out at Juelssand, located at the Elbe river estuary. Over a period of two years the change of the geometrical structure of two different groyne shapes is monitored automatically by utilising two terrestrial laser scanners mounted in protective housings, located each on a 12 m high platform. The self-contained monitoring systems perform scanning of the two groynes one to two times a day at low tide, as the structures are fully submerged at high tide. The long-periodical wave loads are also determined using pressure sensors in each groyne. To correlate the captured data with vessel events and analyse the effects, vessel related parameters are recorded utilizing the Automatic Identification System (AIS). This paper describes the automated processes for the data acquisition and focusses on the deformation that is calculated using current, extended and new algorithms of the Point Cloud Library. It shows the process chain from the acquisition of raw scan files from an elevated station to the filtering of point cloud, the registration, the calculation of pointwise changes and the aggregation to a grid for later correlation with ship parameters. When working outdoor in all kinds of weather conditions, the

  17. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  18. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  19. Saving oiled mangroves using a new non-dispersing shoreline cleaner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teas, H.J.; Lessard, R.R.; Canevari, G.P.; Brown, C.D.; Glenn, R.

    1993-01-01

    Mangroves are ranked as one of the most sensitive marine environments. If mangroves are oiled and no further action is taken, the probability of mortality to the trees is high. One of the ways that viscous spilled oil can kill mangroves is by covering the breathing ports, called lenticels (red mangroves) and pneumatophores (black mangroves), and asphyxiating them by preventing flow of oxygen from the atmosphere into the roots. Mangroves can also be killed by continuous inundation of their prop roots or pneumatophores for a period of ten days to two weeks, but they can survive lenticel covering by water for a few hours at high tide - so there appears to be some grace period during which lenticels can be nonfunctional and the plant can still survive once lenticel function is restored. This suggests that if oil is removed from the breathing ports during the early days after a spill, the lenticels may be able to restore oxygen delivery to the roots and spare the mangroves. Such oils are poorly removed by the washing of tidal waters or by water sprays alone. So a new shoreline cleaner (Corexit 9580), which was specially developed during the cleanup of the Valdez spill in Alaska, was tested to determine its ability to help loosen the oil so it can be washed away with water. Laboratory experiments using excised prop roots of red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) were initially conducted to determine the feasibility of the approach. Subsequently experiments were carried out using about a hundred potted red mangroves at a test site in Florida. The prop roots, including the lenticels, were coated with a heavy oil (bunker C). After various periods of time, groups of oiled trees were treated with the shoreline cleaner to loosen and remove the oil deposit and then washed with seawater. The results showed that oiled trees could be saved by cleaning within seven days after oiling, indicating that the grace period after oiling extends for about one week

  20. Decadal shoreline changes in the muddy coastline of Ondo State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TEMITOPE D. TIMOTHY OYEDOTUN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Modifications du littoral décennales dans le l ittoral boueux de l'Etat d'Ondo , Nigeria . Les changements dans les positions du rivage à proximité du littoral boueux de l'Etat d'Ondo (sud - ouest du Nigeria sont étudiés, entre 1972 et 2014. Les mouvements de l'eau (HW rivage haut ont été étudiés en utilisant le système n umérique Shoreline Analyse (DSAS, une extension ArcGIS développé par l'USGS. Les ensembles de données comprend plusieurs éditions de photographie de Landsat et le Nigeria Imageries satellite. le Shoreline délimitées les unes des images année inclus les po sitions de HW, qui ont été calculées à partir du rivage Mouvement net (NSM et End Point Noter (EPR, le taux annuel de mouvement. Les résultats préliminaires montrent que les rivages de Ondo côte État ont connu un mouvement vers la terre constante au cour s des quatre décennies. Ces changements sont attribués à des attaques d'onde, l'augmentation des niveaux des marées dans le golfe de l'Atlantique du Bénin, la récente hausse du niveau de la mer, canalisation de la rivière qui réduisent le transport de sédi ments dans la zone côtière, l'extraction historique probable de sable et d'autres activités anthropiques dans la zone côtière.

  1. Risk Assessment of Failure of Outdoor High Voltage Polluted Insulators under Combined Stresses Near Shoreline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Majid Hussain

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the various effects of climate conditions on outdoor insulators in coastal areas as a result of saline contamination under acidic and normal cold fog, determining significant electrical and physico-chemical changes on the insulator surface and considering the effect of discharge current, electric field distribution and surface roughness. To replicate similar conditions near the shoreline, experimental investigations have been carried out on insulation materials with the combined application of saline contamination and acidic or normal cold fog. The test samples included silicone rubber (SiR, ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM and high-density polyethylene (HDPE, which were used as reference. The materials are of the same composition as those used in real-life outdoor high voltage insulators. All samples were aged separately in an environmental chamber for 150 h for various saline contaminations combined with acidic and normal cold fog, and were generated by means of the adopted experimental setup. This analysis represented conditions similar to those existing near the shoreline exposed to saline and acid spray during winter and early spring. Electric field and discharge current along polymeric samples were examined under acidic and normal cold fog. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopic (SEM were used to probe the physico-chemical changes on the samples surface and investigate the hydrophobicity recovery property after aging tests. Finally, a comparative study was carried out on polymeric samples before and after being exposed to the acidic and normal cold fog based on the results obtained from the experiment. Research data may provide references for the better prediction of surface degradation as well as for the better material coating and design of external insulation.

  2. The documentation of tar balls on oiled shorelines : lessons from the New Carissa, Oregon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; Zimlicki-Owens, L.M.; Lamarche, A.; Reimer, P.D.; Martin, C.A.

    2000-01-01

    The New Carissa, carrying approximately 400,000 gallons of fuel oils ran aground on the outer shore of North Spit, in the vicinity of Coos Bay, Oregon, on February 4, 1999. The oil was released directly into the nearshore surf zone. Following the spill, a stretch of approximately 300 km of the coast of Oregon was surveyed and monitored. The need for the documentation of stranded tar balls in the neighbourhood of the spill site prompted the implementation of a long-term observation program. Initially, Shoreline Clean-up and Assessment Technique (SCAT) reporting procedures were required. Heavy oiling was followed by stranded oil taking the form of tar balls. The amount of oil on the shoreline decreased and the SCAT procedures alone were no longer adequate. They provided estimations of oil quantities that were too high and failed to provide any discrimination between amounts of oil observed on the beaches. A new reporting technique called Beach Assessment Reporting was designed to overcome the difficulties and record adequately the character and frequency of stranded tar balls. Maps, tables and histograms of stranded tar ball volumes and concentrations were discussed. Since the data spanned nine orders of magnitude at times, the semi-logarithmic scale time series plots of the concentration of the tar balls was used in order to identify trends. Conventional histograms only identified large values and camouflaged smaller trends in the time series. A direct method for describing tar ball concentrations geographically proved to be the use of weekly maximum tar ball concentration maps by segment. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs

  3. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  4. Evaluating Land Subsidence Rates and Their Implications for Land Loss in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zou

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available High subsidence rates, along with eustatic sea-level change, sediment accumulation and shoreline erosion have led to widespread land loss and the deterioration of ecosystem health around the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB. A proper evaluation of the spatial pattern of subsidence rates in the LMRB is the key to understanding the mechanisms of the submergence, estimating its potential impacts on land loss and the long-term sustainability of the region. Based on the subsidence rate data derived from benchmark surveys from 1922 to 1995, this paper constructed a subsidence rate surface for the region through the empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK interpolation method. The results show that the subsidence rates in the region ranged from 1.7 to 29 mm/year, with an average rate of 9.4 mm/year. Subsidence rates increased from north to south as the outcome of both regional geophysical conditions and anthropogenic activities. Four areas of high subsidence rates were found, and they are located in Orleans, Jefferson, Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes. A projection of future landscape loss using the interpolated subsidence rates reveals that areas below zero elevation in the LMRB will increase from 3.86% in 2004 to 19.79% in 2030 and 30.88% in 2050. This translates to a growing increase of areas that are vulnerable to land loss from 44.3 km2/year to 240.7 km2/year from 2011 to 2050. Under the same scenario, Lafourche, Plaquemines and Terrebonne parishes will experience serious loss of wetlands, whereas Orleans and Jefferson parishes will lose significant developed land, and Lafourche parish will endure severe loss of agriculture land.

  5. River nomads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2016-01-01

    sail on the Niger River between Nigeria and Mali. Crossing villages, borders and cultures, they stop only to rest by setting up camp on riverbanks or host villages. In River Nomads, we join the nomadic Kebbawa fishermen on one of their yearly crossing, experiencing their relatively adventurous...

  6. River Piracy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    There was this highly venerated river Saraswati flowing through. Haryana, Marwar and Bahawalpur in Uttarapath and emptying itself in the Gulf ofKachchh, which has been described in glowing terms by the Rigveda. "Breaking through the mountain barrier", this "swift-flowing tempestuous river surpasses in majesty and.

  7. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  8. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  9. 100 Area Columbia River sediment sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, S.G.

    1993-01-01

    Forty-four sediment samples were collected from 28 locations in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River to assess the presence of metals and man-made radionuclides in the near shore and shoreline settings of the Hanford Site. Three locations were sampled upriver of the Hanford Site plutonium production reactors. Twenty-two locations were sampled near the reactors. Three locations were sampled downstream of the reactors near the Hanford Townsite. Sediment was collected from depths of 0 to 6 in. and between 12 to 24 in. below the surface. Samples containing concentrations of metals exceeding the 95 % upper threshold limit values (DOE-RL 1993b) are considered contaminated. Contamination by arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, and zinc was found. Man-made radionuclides occur in all samples except four collected opposite the Hanford Townsite. Man-made radionuclide concentrations were generally less than 1 pCi/g

  10. 100 Area Columbia River sediment sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, S.G. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-09-08

    Forty-four sediment samples were collected from 28 locations in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River to assess the presence of metals and man-made radionuclides in the near shore and shoreline settings of the Hanford Site. Three locations were sampled upriver of the Hanford Site plutonium production reactors. Twenty-two locations were sampled near the reactors. Three locations were sampled downstream of the reactors near the Hanford Townsite. Sediment was collected from depths of 0 to 6 in. and between 12 to 24 in. below the surface. Samples containing concentrations of metals exceeding the 95 % upper threshold limit values (DOE-RL 1993b) are considered contaminated. Contamination by arsenic, chromium, copper, lead, and zinc was found. Man-made radionuclides occur in all samples except four collected opposite the Hanford Townsite. Man-made radionuclide concentrations were generally less than 1 pCi/g.

  11. 75 FR 18755 - Security Zone; Calcasieu River and Ship Channel, LA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-13

    ...The Coast Guard is disestablishing the permanent safety zone at Trunkline LNG in Lake Charles, LA and replacing it with a security zone with new boundaries. The Coast Guard is also establishing two additional permanent security zones on the waters of the Calcasieu River for the mooring basins at Cameron LNG in Hackberry, LA and PPG Industries in Lake Charles, LA. The Coast Guard is also disestablishing the Calcasieu River ship channel moving safety zone and replacing it with a moving security zone. The revised moving security zone extends channel edge to channel edge on the Calcasieu Channel and shoreline to shoreline on the Calcasieu River, 2 miles ahead and 1 mile astern of certain designated vessels while in transit on the Calcasieu Channel or Calcasieu River. Meeting, crossing or overtaking situations are not permitted within the security zone unless specifically authorized by the Captain of the Port. The moving security zone may commence at any point while certain vessels are transiting the Calcasieu Channel or Calcasieu River on U.S. territorial waters (12 nautical miles) in the Captain of the Port (COTP) Port Arthur zone. These security zones are needed to protect vessels, waterfront facilities, the public, and other surrounding areas from destruction, loss, or injury caused by sabotage, subversive acts, accidents, or other actions of a similar nature. Unless exempted under this rule, entry into or movement within these security zones is prohibited without permission from the Captain of the Port or a designated representative.

  12. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  13. Atlantic Forest scenarios under the parameters of forestry laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliane Garcia da Silva

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Remote sensing allows for identification of regularities and irregularities in land use and land coverage (LULC change in relation to environmental legislation. The aim of this study was to delimit scenarios in the permanent preservation areas (PPAs according to the Brazilian forestry law, with or without consolidated uses in the basin of Capivari River and the State of Rio de Janeiro in the Atlantic Forest biome. Mapping and analysis were performed on LULC in areas of permanent preservation using the following data: RapidEye-REIS satellite scenes acquired in 2012 and Bhattacharyya distance classifier and hydrography of the basin and digital elevation model (1:25.000 using Spring and ArcGIS software. The legal scenarios adopted were as follows: I Federal Law N°. 4,771/1965 and the National Council for the Environment (CONAMA N°. 303/2002; II Federal Law N°. 12,651/2012; and III Federal Law N°. 12,651/2012 and N°. 12,727/2012. The classification presented an excellent overall accuracy of 91.15% and a Kappa Index of 0.86 in relation to the samples of the six multipurpose classes having the anthropic uses of agriculture, burned pasture, exposed soil and urbanization, which were present with conflicting uses for Scenarios I, II and III. The new forest legislation for the PPAs of Scenario III impacted the reduction of 68% compared to Scenario I, which corroborates with the concerns on the conservation of water and soil resources.

  14. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  15. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  16. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  17. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  18. Seismic surface-wave prospecting methods for sinkhole hazard assessment along the Dead Sea shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezersky, M.; Bodet, L.; Al-Zoubi, A.; Camerlynck, C.; Dhemaied, A.; Galibert, P.-Y.; Keydar, S.

    2012-04-01

    The Dead Sea's coastal areas have been dramatically hit by sinkholes occurrences since around 1990 and there is an obvious potential for further collapse beneath main highways, agricultural lands and other populated places. The sinkhole hazard in this area threatens human lives and compromise future economic developments. The understanding of such phenomenon is consequently of great importance in the development of protective solutions. Several geological and geophysical studies tend to show that evaporite karsts, caused by slow salt dissolution, are linked to the mechanism of sinkhole formation along both Israel and Jordan shorelines. The continuous drop of the Dead Sea level, at a rate of 1m/yr during the past decade, is generally proposed as the main triggering factor. The water table lowering induces the desaturation of shallow sediments overlying buried cavities in 10 to 30 meters thick salt layers, at depths from 25 to 50 meters. Both the timing and location of sinkholes suggest that: (1) the salt weakens as result of increasing fresh water circulation, thus enhancing the karstification process; (2) sinkholes appear to be related to the decompaction of the sediments above karstified zones. The location, depth, thickness and weakening of salt layers along the Dead Sea shorelines, as well as the thickness and mechanical properties of the upper sedimentary deposits, are thus considered as controlling factors of this ongoing process. Pressure-wave seismic methods are typically used to study sinkhole developments in this area. P-wave refraction and reflection methods are very useful to delineate the salt layers and to determine the thickness of overlying sediments. But the knowledge of shear-wave velocities (Vs) should add valuable insights on their mechanical properties, more particularly when the groundwater level plays an important role in the process. However, from a practical point of view, the measurement of Vs remains delicate because of well-known shear

  19. Macondo-1 well oil in sediment and tarballs from the northern Gulf of Mexico shoreline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Florence L.; Rosenbauer, Robert J.; Campbell, Pamela L.; Lam, Angela; Lorenson, T.D.; Hostettler, Frances D.; Thomas, Burt

    2011-01-01

    From April 20 through July 15, 2010, an estimated 4.4 million barrels (1 barrel = 42 gallons [~700,000 cu m]) of crude oil spilled into the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) from the ruptured British Petroleum (BP) Macondo-1 (M-1) well after the explosion of the drilling platform Deepwater Horizon. In addition, ~1.84 million gallons (~7,000 cu m) of hydrocarbon-based Corexit dispersants were applied to the oil both on and below the sea surface (Operational Science Advisory Team, 2010). An estimate of the total extent of the surface oil slick, derived from wind, ocean currents, aerial photography, and satellite imagery, was 68,000 square miles (~180,000 sq km; Amos and Norse, 2010). Spilled oil from this event impacted sensitive habitat along the shores of the nGOM. In response to this environmental catastrophe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected coastal sediment and tarball samples along the shores of the nGOM from Texas to Florida before and after oil made landfall. These sites included priority areas of the nGOM at highest risk for oil contamination. These areas included coastal wetlands, shorelines, and barrier islands that could suffer severe environmental damage if a significant amount of oil came ashore. Samples were collected before oil reached land from 69 sites; 49 were revisited to collect samples after oil landfall. This poster focuses on the samples from locations that were sampled on both occasions. The USGS samples and one M-1 well-oil sample provided by BP were analyzed for a suite of diagnostic geochemical biomarkers. Aided by multivariate statistical analysis, the M-1 well oil was not detected in the samples collected before landfall but have been identified in sediment and tarballs collected from Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida after landfall. None of the sediment hydrocarbon extracts from Texas correlated with the M-1 well oil. Oil-impacted sediment is confined to the shoreline adjacent to the cumulative oil slick of the

  20. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  1. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  2. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  3. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  4. Book Review of The New Digital Shoreline: How Web 2.0 and Millennials are Revolutionizing Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Bodewes

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In higher education, the integration of new technologies and pedagogies of instruction is often a source of apprehension. The New Digital Shoreline, written by Roger McHaney of Kansas State University, is a guide for understanding millennial learners along with current technologies and strategies used in college classrooms. The audience for this book would likely be faculty and administrators with limited knowledge of the shifting expectations for technology in higher education. On the spectrum of technology adoption ranging from innovators to laggards, The New Digital Shoreline is best suited for late majority adopters. The book is organized around the metaphor of exploring a new world, one with an unfamiliar population, landscape, and culture; the author is your guide on a journey to successfully adapt to the realities of this new world.

  5. Elastic source model of the North Mono eruption (1325-1368 A.D.) based on shoreline deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Wil; Bursik, Marcus; Renshaw, Carl

    2010-12-01

    Topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) captures the permanent deformation of a prominent highstand of Mono Lake, California USA. Deformation of the Dechambeau Ranch highstand shoreline was measured using the elevation of the beach berm—shoreline bluff break-in-slope. Point source models and a boundary element dike model were used to approximate the source of deformation underneath the northern end of the Mono Craters. The point source model could not adequately explain the observed deformation. The dike model yielded the best results for a NW trending dike dipping 60° NE and inflated to widths greater than 60 m. The results suggest that the geometry of the source is more complex than a simple vertical dike and that the deformation is better explained with a dipping dike following a normal fault, or an elongated cryptodome.

  6. Shoreline ecology program for Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Part 1: Study design and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, D.S.; Gilfillan, E.S.; Boehm, P.D.; Harner, E.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the design and analysis of a large field and laboratory program to assess shoreline recovery in Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The study was designed so that results could be generalized area-wide (biology, chemistry) or habitat-wide (toxicology) and projected forward in time (chemistry). It made use of the sediment quality triad approach, combining biological, chemical, and toxicological measurements to assess shoreline recovery. Key aspects of the study include the following: coordinated field sampling for chemical, toxicological, and biological studies; stratified random sampling (SRS) as a basis for spatial generalization; periodic sampling to assess trends, including sites with worst-case conditions; analysis of oil-spill effects on hundreds of species; statistical methods based on normal and non-normal theory, consistent with the structure of the data, including generalized linear models and multivariate correspondence analysis. 45 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  7. Shoreline clean up during the Sea Empress incident: the role of surf washing (clay-oil flocculation), dispersants and bioremediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunel, T.; Lee, K.

    1996-01-01

    An outline of the at sea operations which took place in response to the Sea Empress oil spill, was presented. The grounding of the Sea Empress resulted in the release of 70,000 tonnes of blended crude oil into the environment. A qualitative account of the events which followed the incident were described. The early mobilization of a monitoring team has demonstrated the importance of scientific measurements to identify and maximize the efficiency of various cleanup operations. One of the important responses to this incident was the application of dispersants which by inducing flocculation, thereby reducing contact of oil directly with the substrate, and by reducing adhesion of the oil to the shoreline, contributed greatly to minimizing shoreline impact. 19 refs., 7 figs

  8. Evaluation of the Variability of the Shoreline of the Tsimlyansk Reservoir and Lake Ilmen according to Space Sounding Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumyantsev, V. A.; Pozdnyakov, Sh. R.; Ulichev, V. I.; Chichkova, E. F.; Ryzhikov, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    This article presents the results of a study of the dynamics of the shorelines of Lake Ilmen and the Tsimlyansk Reservoir to indicate the location of the boundaries of the water protection zone. The study uses the method of processing information from Terra/MODIS, Landsat-7 and -8, and WorldView-1 space systems. The analysis of remote-sensing data reveal the off-season and yearly variability in the area of the surface and shoreline, which is characteristic of water bodies under flat relief conditions. On the basis of the results of the research, the issue of the necessity of allocating a water protection zone, taking into account the morphometric features of water bodies and the characteristics of their hydrological regime, followed by amendments to the Water Code of the Russian Federation, is posed.

  9. Bioremediation: Application of slow-release fertilizers on low-energy shorelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.; Tremblay, G.H.; Levy, E.M.

    1993-01-01

    In situ biodegradation, the activation of microbial processes capable of destroying contaminants where they are found in the environment, is a biological process that responds rapidly to changing environmental factors. Accordingly, in situ sediment enclosures were used to test the efficacy of selected nutrient formulations to enhance the biodegradation of a waxy crude oil in a low-energy shoreline environment. The addition of soluble inorganic fertilizers (ammonium nitrate and triple superphosphate) and slow-release nutrient formulations (sulfur-coated urea) stimulated microbial activity and prolonged the period of oil degradation, despite a decline in seasonal temperatures. Low temperatures reduced the permeability of the coating on the slow-release fertilizers, effectively suppressing nutrient release. Of the nutrient formulations evaluated, the authors recommend the application of granular slow-release fertilizers (such as sulfur-coated urea) when the overlying water temperatures are above 15 degrees C, and the application of soluble inorganic fertilizers (such as ammonium nitrate) at lower temperatures. Comprehensive analysis of the experimental results indicate that application protocols for bioremediation (form and type of fertilizer or type and frequency of application), be specifically tailored to account for differences in environmental parameters (including oil characteristics) at each contaminated site

  10. Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, a quorum quenching yeast exhibiting lactonase activity isolated from a tropical shoreline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, Norshazliza Ab; Sulaiman, Joanita; Ismail, Zahidah; Chan, Xin-Yue; Yin, Wai-Fong; Chan, Kok-Gan

    2014-04-09

    Two microbial isolates from a Malaysian shoreline were found to be capable of degrading N-acylhomoserine lactones. Both Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-Time of Flight-Mass Spectrometry and 18S rDNA phylogenetic analyses confirmed that these isolates are Rhodotorula mucilaginosa. Quorum quenching activities were detected by a series of bioassays and rapid resolution liquid chromatography analysis. The isolates were able to degrade various quorum sensing molecules namely N-hexanoyl-L-homoserine lactone (C6-HSL), N-(3-oxo-hexanoyl)-L-homoserine lactone (3-oxo-C6-HSL) and N-(3-hydroxyhexanoyl)-L-homoserine lactone (3-hydroxy-C6-HSL). Using a relactonisation assay to verify the quorum quenching mechanism, it is confirmed that Rh. mucilaginosa degrades the quorum sensing molecules via lactonase activity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first documentation of the fact that Rh. mucilaginosa has activity against a broad range of AHLs namely C6-HSL, 3-oxo-C6-HSL and 3-hydroxy-C6-HSL.

  11. The discharge of nitrate-contaminated groundwater from developed shoreline to marsh-fringed estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, J.W.; Nowicki, B.L.; Roman, C.T.; Urish, D.W.

    1998-01-01

    As residential development, on-site wastewater disposal, and groundwater contamination increase in the coastal zone, assessment of nutrient removal by soil and sedimentary processes becomes increasingly important. Nitrogen removal efficiency depends largely on the specific flow paths taken by groundwater as it discharges into nitrogen-limited estuarine waters. Shoreline salinity surveys, hydraulic studies, and thermal infrared imagery indicated that groundwater discharge into the Nauset Marsh estuary (Eastham, Massachusetts) occurred in high-velocity seeps immediately seaward of the upland-fringing salt marsh. Discharge was highly variable spatially and occurred through permeable, sandy sediments during low tide. Seepage chamber monitoring showed that dissolved inorganic nitrogen (principally nitrate) traversed nearly conservatively from the aquifer through shallow estuarine sediments to coastal waters at flux rates of 1–3 mmol m−2 h−1. A significant relationship between pore water NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N flux rates may provide a rapid method of estimating nitrogen loading from groundwater to the water column.

  12. Dispersion of atmospheric pollutants in flow over the shoreline of a large body of water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobosy, R.

    1979-01-01

    Simulation of pollutant dispersion and mixed-layer development in a shoreline fumigation regime was studied using a two-dimensional vertical plane model employing level two or three (depending on the experiment) from the hierarchy of turbulence closure schemes of Mellor and Yamada (1974). A one-dimensional version of the model using hierarchy level three which includes nonlocal effects in the turbulence simulation was verified with Wangara data from Day 34. Levels two and three were then compared using the two-dimensional model under conditions as measured at Waukegan, Illinois, on 28 June 1974. Predictions from level two, a simpler and purely local scheme, are comparable to level three for both pollutant concentration and mixed-layer depth at least with winds about 3 m s -1 , except within 500m of shore and for a short distance above the inversion base. There is, however, little difference in cost between the two schemes in the present model, making level three preferable because of its greater generality and smoother predicted fields. Predicted mixed-layer depth over land was much less than observed at Waukegan using either turbulence scheme. It appears that this is not due to inadequacies of the turbulence simulation but to three-dimensional features of the actual situation which could not be described by the two-dimensional model

  13. Monitoring and modeling shoreline response due to shoreface nourishment on a high-energy coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, P. L.; Erikson, Li H.; Hansen, J. E.

    2009-01-01

    Shoreface nourishment can be an efficient technique to feed sediment into the littoral zone without the order of magnitude cost increase incurred by directly nourishing the beach. An erosion hot spot at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, USA, threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as safe recreational use of the beach. In an effort to reduce the erosion at this location, a new beneficial reuse plan was implemented in May 2005 for the sediment dredged annually from the main shipping channel at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. From 2005 to 2007, approximately 230,000 m of sand was placed annually at depths between 9 and 14 m, in a location where strong tidal currents and open-ocean waves could potentially feed sediment onto the section of beach experiencing critical erosion. The evolution of the disposal mound and adjacent beach were monitored with 12 multibeam bathymetric surveys, and over 40 high-resolution beach topographic surveys. In addition, sediment transport processes were investigated using sediment grab samples, acoustic Doppler profilers, and two separate models: a cross-shore profile model (UNIBEST-TC) and a coastal area model (Delft3D). The results of the monitoring and modeling demonstrate that the disposal mound may be effective in dissipating wave energy striking this vulnerable stretch of coast with negligible shadowing effects, but a positive shoreline response can only be achieved by placing the sediment in water depths less than 5 m. 

  14. A multisource approach for coastline mapping and identification of shoreline changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zaccagnino

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Coastal dynamics are driven by phenomena of exogenous and endogenous nature. Characterizing factors that influence their equilibrium and continuous monitoring are fundamental for effective environmental planning and management of coastal areas. In order to monitor shoreline changes, we developed a methodology based on a multisource and multitemporal approach. A database, related to the Ionian coast of Basilicata region (about 50 km, was implemented by using cartogr