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Sample records for risks think-aloud study

  1. Epistemic Cognition when Students Read Multiple Documents Containing Conflicting Scientific Evidence: A Think-Aloud Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Leila E.; Braten, Ivar; Stromso, Helge I.

    2012-01-01

    This study used think-aloud methodology to investigate 51 Norwegian undergraduates' topic-specific epistemic cognition while working with six documents presenting conflicting views on the issue of cell phones and potential health risks. Results showed that students' epistemic cognition was represented by one dimension concerning the certainty and…

  2. Thinking aloud influences perceived time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertzum, Morten; Holmegaard, Kristin Due

    2015-02-01

    We investigate whether thinking aloud influences perceived time. Thinking aloud is widely used in usability evaluation, yet it is debated whether thinking aloud influences thought and behavior. If thinking aloud is restricted to the verbalization of information to which a person is already attending, there is evidence that thinking aloud does not influence thought and behavior. In an experiment, 16 thinking-aloud participants and 16 control participants solved a code-breaking task 24 times each. Participants estimated task duration. The 24 trials involved two levels of time constraint (timed, untimed) and resulted in two levels of success (solved, unsolved). The ratio of perceived time to clock time was lower for thinking-aloud than control participants. Participants overestimated time by an average of 47% (thinking aloud) and 94% (control). The effect of thinking aloud on time perception also held separately for timed, untimed, solved, and unsolved trials. Thinking aloud (verbalization at Levels 1 and 2) influences perceived time. Possible explanations of this effect include that thinking aloud may require attention, cause a processing shift that overshadows the perception of time, or increase mental workload. For usability evaluation, this study implies that time estimates made while thinking aloud cannot be compared with time estimates made while not thinking aloud, that ratings of systems experienced while thinking aloud may be inaccurate (because the experience of time influences other experiences), and that it may therefore be considered to replace concurrent thinking aloud with retrospective thinking aloud when evaluations involve time estimation.

  3. Thinking Aloud Influences Perceived Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Holmegaard, Kristin Due

    2015-01-01

    a processing shift that overshadows the perception of time, or increase mental workload. Application: For usability evaluation, this study implies that time estimates made while thinking aloud cannot be compared with time estimates made while not thinking aloud, that ratings of systems experienced while......Objective: We investigate whether thinking aloud influences perceived time. Background: Thinking aloud is widely used in usability evaluation, yet it is debated whether thinking aloud influences thought and behavior. If thinking aloud is restricted to the verbalization of information to which...... a person is already attending, there is evidence that thinking aloud does not influence thought and behavior. Method: In an experiment, 16 thinking-aloud participants and 16 control participants solved a code-breaking task 24 times each. Participants estimated task duration. The 24 trials involved two...

  4. Reading Strategy Use and Comprehension Performance of More Successful and Less Successful Readers: A Think-Aloud Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yen-Hui

    2016-01-01

    This study explores the differences between more successful and less successful EFL readers in their comprehension performance and abilities to use reading strategies in interaction with English texts through thinking aloud while reading in pairs. Ten freshman high school students participated in pairs in four think-aloud reading tasks to think…

  5. Application, results and perceptions of a think-aloud study in listening comprehension of Spanish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogueroles López, Marta

    2017-01-01

    . After listening, they completed five comprehension questions, listened one more time with the transcript, reflected on their understanding and their strategic behaviour, and evaluated the protocol itself. These interviews were recorded, transcribed, analysed, categorized and computed. Results reveal......The present article outlines the procedure and shows the outcomes of a think-aloud study intended to, first, find out what listening strategies Hong Kong students of Spanish use to comprehend a particular oral passage in the target language, and, second, understand the participants’ perceptions...... of the think-aloud protocol. Such a protocol was developed during interviews in which students listened to an unidirectional text in Spanish twice, the first time interruptedly and the second without intermediate pauses, and were asked to verbalize the processes they had been using to understand such a passage...

  6. How Black women make sense of 'White' and 'Black' fashion magazines: a qualitative think aloud study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, Jane; Russell, Sheriden

    2013-12-01

    This qualitative think aloud study explored how Black women (n = 32) processed information from a White or Black fashion magazine. Comments to the 'White' magazine were characterised by rejection, being critical of the media and ambivalence, whereas they responded to the 'Black' magazine with celebration, identification and a search for depth. Transcending these themes was their self-identity of being a Black woman that was brought to the fore either by a sense of exclusion (White magazine) or engagement (Black magazine). Such an identity provides resilience against the media's thin ideals by minimising the processes of social comparison and internalisation.

  7. Registered nurses' clinical reasoning skills and reasoning process: A think-aloud study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, JuHee; Lee, Young Joo; Bae, JuYeon; Seo, Minjeong

    2016-11-01

    As complex chronic diseases are increasing, nurses' prompt and accurate clinical reasoning skills are essential. However, little is known about the reasoning skills of registered nurses. This study aimed to determine how registered nurses use their clinical reasoning skills and to identify how the reasoning process proceeds in the complex clinical situation of hospital setting. A qualitative exploratory design was used with a think-aloud method. A total of 13 registered nurses (mean years of experience=11.4) participated in the study, solving an ill-structured clinical problem based on complex chronic patients cases in a hospital setting. Data were analyzed using deductive content analysis. Findings showed that the registered nurses used a variety of clinical reasoning skills. The most commonly used skill was 'checking accuracy and reliability.' The reasoning process of registered nurses covered assessment, analysis, diagnosis, planning/implementation, and evaluation phase. It is critical that registered nurses apply appropriate clinical reasoning skills in complex clinical practice. The main focus of registered nurses' reasoning in this study was assessing a patient's health problem, and their reasoning process was cyclic, rather than linear. There is a need for educational strategy development to enhance registered nurses' competency in determining appropriate interventions in a timely and accurate fashion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Rationalising the 'irrational': a think aloud study of discrete choice experiment responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Mandy; Watson, Verity; Entwistle, Vikki

    2009-03-01

    Stated preference methods assume respondents' preferences are consistent with utility theory, but many empirical studies report evidence of preferences that violate utility theory. This evidence is often derived from quantitative tests that occur naturally within, or are added to, stated preference tasks. In this study, we use qualitative methods to explore three axioms of utility theory: completeness, monotonicity, and continuity. We take a novel approach, adopting a 'think aloud' technique to identify violations of the axioms of utility theory and to consider how well the quantitative tests incorporated within a discrete choice experiment are able to detect these. Results indicate that quantitative tests classify respondents as being 'irrational' when qualitative statements would indicate they are 'rational'. In particular, 'non-monotonic' responses can often be explained by respondents inferring additional information beyond what is presented in the task, and individuals who appear to adopt non-compensatory decision-making strategies do so because they rate particular attributes very highly (they are not attempting to simplify the task). The results also provide evidence of 'cost-based responses': respondents assumed tests with higher costs would be of higher quality. The value of including in-depth qualitative validation techniques in the development of stated preference tasks is shown.

  9. Exploring self-rated health among adolescents: a think-aloud study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junia Joffer

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite extensive use of self-rated health questions in youth studies, little is known about what such questions capture among adolescents. Hence, the aim of this study was to explore how adolescents interpret and reason when answering a question about self-rated health. Methods A qualitative study using think-aloud interviews explored the question, “How do you feel most of the time?”, using five response options (“Very good”, “Rather good”, “Neither good, nor bad”, “Rather bad”, and “Very bad”. The study involved 58 adolescents (29 boys and 29 girls in lower secondary school (7th grade and upper secondary school (12th grade in Sweden. Results Respondents’ interpretations of the question about how they felt included social, mental, and physical aspects. Gender differences were found primarily in that girls emphasized stressors, while age differences were reflected mainly in the older respondents’ inclusion of a wider variety of influences on their assessments. The five response options all demonstrated differences in self-rated health, and the respondents’ understanding of the middle option, “Neither good, nor bad”, varied widely. In the answering of potential sensitive survey questions, rationales for providing honest or biased answers were described. Conclusions The use of a self-rated health question including the word ‘feel’ captured a holistic view of health among adolescents. Differences amongst response options should be acknowledged when analyzing self-rated health questions. If anonymity is not feasible when answering questions on self-rated health, a high level of privacy is recommended to increase the likelihood of reliability.

  10. Registered nurses' clinical reasoning in home healthcare clinical practice: A think-aloud study with protocol analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnsen, Hege Mari; Slettebø, Åshild; Fossum, Mariann

    2016-05-01

    The home healthcare context can be unpredictable and complex, and requires registered nurses with a high level of clinical reasoning skills and professional autonomy. Thus, additional knowledge about registered nurses' clinical reasoning performance during patient home care is required. The aim of this study is to describe the cognitive processes and thinking strategies used by recently graduated registered nurses while caring for patients in home healthcare clinical practice. An exploratory qualitative think-aloud design with protocol analysis was used. Home healthcare visits to patients with stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in seven healthcare districts in southern Norway. A purposeful sample of eight registered nurses with one year of experience. Each nurse was interviewed using the concurrent think-aloud technique in three different patient home healthcare clinical practice visits. A total of 24 home healthcare visits occurred. Follow-up interviews were conducted with each participant. The think-aloud sessions were transcribed and analysed using three-step protocol analysis. Recently graduated registered nurses focused on both general nursing concepts and concepts specific to the domains required and tasks provided in home healthcare services as well as for different patient groups. Additionally, participants used several assertion types, cognitive processes, and thinking strategies. Our results showed that recently graduated registered nurses used both simple and complex cognitive processes involving both inductive and deductive reasoning. However, their reasoning was more reactive than proactive. The results may contribute to nursing practice in terms of developing effective nursing education programmes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Thinking in Pharmacy Practice: A Study of Community Pharmacists' Clinical Reasoning in Medication Supply Using the Think-Aloud Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Hayley; Gilligan, Conor; Rasiah, Rohan; Levett-Jones, Tracy; Schneider, Jennifer

    2017-12-31

    Medication review and supply by pharmacists involves both cognitive and technical skills related to the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. The cognitive ability of pharmacists to recall, synthesise and memorise information is a critical aspect of safe and optimal medicines use, yet few studies have investigated the clinical reasoning and decision-making processes pharmacists use when supplying prescribed medicines. The objective of this study was to examine the patterns and processes of pharmacists' clinical reasoning and to identify the information sources used, when making decisions about the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. Ten community pharmacists participated in a simulation in which they were required to review a prescription and make decisions about the safety and appropriateness of supplying the prescribed medicines to the patient, whilst at the same time thinking aloud about the tasks required. Following the simulation each pharmacist was asked a series of questions to prompt retrospective thinking aloud using video-stimulated recall. The simulated consultation and retrospective interview were recorded and transcribed for thematic analysis. All of the pharmacists made a safe and appropriate supply of two prescribed medicines to the simulated patient. Qualitative analysis identified seven core thinking processes used during the supply process: considering prescription in context, retrieving information, identifying medication-related issues, processing information, collaborative planning, decision making and reflection; and align closely with other health professionals. The insights from this study have implications for enhancing awareness of decision making processes in pharmacy practice and informing teaching and assessment approaches in medication supply.

  12. Thinking aloud in the presence of interruptions and time constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Holmegaard, Kristin Due

    2013-01-01

    and time constraints, two frequent elements of real-world activities. We find that the presence of auditory, visual, audiovisual, or no interruptions interacts with thinking aloud for task solution rate, task completion time, and participants’ fixation rate. Thinking-aloud participants also spend longer......Thinking aloud is widely used for usability evaluation and its reactivity is therefore important to the quality of evaluation results. This study investigates whether thinking aloud (i.e., verbalization at levels 1 and 2) affects the behaviour of users who perform tasks that involve interruptions...... responding to interruptions than control participants. Conversely, the absence or presence of time constraints does not interact with thinking aloud, suggesting that time pressure is less likely to make thinking aloud reactive than previously assumed. Our results inform practitioners faced with the decision...

  13. Which Is the Better Prompt in Thinking-Aloud Studies, "What Are You Trying to Achieve?" or "Keep Talking"?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Hansen, Kristin Due; Sønderstrup-Andersen, Hans H. K.

    2009-01-01

    Thinking aloud is widely used for usability evaluation but generally in a relaxed way that conflicts with the prescriptions of the classic model for obtaining valid verbalizations of thought processes. We investigate whether participants that think aloud in the classic or relaxed way behave...... differently compared to performing in silence. Results indicate that whereas classic thinking aloud has little or no effect on behaviour apart from prolonging tasks, relaxed thinking aloud affects behaviour in multiple ways. During relaxed thinking aloud participants took longer to solve tasks, spent a larger...... part of tasks on general distributed visual behaviour, issued more commands to navigate both within and between the pages of the web sites used in the experiment, and experienced higher mental workload....

  14. Using Think-Aloud Protocols to Uncover Misconceptions and Improve Developmental Math Instruction: An Exploratory Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Secolsky

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Deficiencies in education continue to escalate around the world. The focus on outcomes assessment has narrowed instructional research and curriculum evaluation to standardized testing in certain subject areas. A prototype for a quantitative literacy assessment instrument was developed with the goal of diagnosing student misconceptions of basic mathematics content and changing instructional practices to undo the misconceptions by applying cognitive psychological theory. Two hundred thirty-eight basic math high school students and 209 remedial community college students in New Jersey and New York were administered the instrument, which had been based on coded data from think-aloud protocols. The instrument asked students to answer 20 basic mathematics items and, in addition, to evaluate four possible solution strategies. For each item, frequencies of selected solution strategies and the association between strategy selection and performance on the 20-question math test are presented as a means for improving instruction. Follow-up research is proposed for determining whether undoing the student misconceptions first before teaching material on a new unit of instruction may yield more positive student outcomes.

  15. Older Cancer Patients' User Experiences With Web-Based Health Information Tools: A Think-Aloud Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolle, Sifra; Romijn, Geke; Smets, Ellen M A; Loos, Eugene F; Kunneman, Marleen; van Weert, Julia C M

    2016-07-25

    Health information is increasingly presented on the Internet. Several Web design guidelines for older Web users have been proposed; however, these guidelines are often not applied in website development. Furthermore, although we know that older individuals use the Internet to search for health information, we lack knowledge on how they use and evaluate Web-based health information. This study evaluates user experiences with existing Web-based health information tools among older (≥ 65 years) cancer patients and survivors and their partners. The aim was to gain insight into usability issues and the perceived usefulness of cancer-related Web-based health information tools. We conducted video-recorded think-aloud observations for 7 Web-based health information tools, specifically 3 websites providing cancer-related information, 3 Web-based question prompt lists (QPLs), and 1 values clarification tool, with colorectal cancer patients or survivors (n=15) and their partners (n=8) (median age: 73; interquartile range 70-79). Participants were asked to think aloud while performing search, evaluation, and application tasks using the Web-based health information tools. Overall, participants perceived Web-based health information tools as highly useful and indicated a willingness to use such tools. However, they experienced problems in terms of usability and perceived usefulness due to difficulties in using navigational elements, shortcomings in the layout, a lack of instructions on how to use the tools, difficulties with comprehensibility, and a large amount of variety in terms of the preferred amount of information. Although participants frequently commented that it was easy for them to find requested information, we observed that the large majority of the participants were not able to find it. Overall, older cancer patients appreciate and are able to use cancer information websites. However, this study shows the importance of maintaining awareness of age-related problems

  16. Older Cancer Patients’ User Experiences With Web-Based Health Information Tools: A Think-Aloud Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romijn, Geke; Smets, Ellen M A; Loos, Eugene F; Kunneman, Marleen; van Weert, Julia C M

    2016-01-01

    Background Health information is increasingly presented on the Internet. Several Web design guidelines for older Web users have been proposed; however, these guidelines are often not applied in website development. Furthermore, although we know that older individuals use the Internet to search for health information, we lack knowledge on how they use and evaluate Web-based health information. Objective This study evaluates user experiences with existing Web-based health information tools among older (≥ 65 years) cancer patients and survivors and their partners. The aim was to gain insight into usability issues and the perceived usefulness of cancer-related Web-based health information tools. Methods We conducted video-recorded think-aloud observations for 7 Web-based health information tools, specifically 3 websites providing cancer-related information, 3 Web-based question prompt lists (QPLs), and 1 values clarification tool, with colorectal cancer patients or survivors (n=15) and their partners (n=8) (median age: 73; interquartile range 70-79). Participants were asked to think aloud while performing search, evaluation, and application tasks using the Web-based health information tools. Results Overall, participants perceived Web-based health information tools as highly useful and indicated a willingness to use such tools. However, they experienced problems in terms of usability and perceived usefulness due to difficulties in using navigational elements, shortcomings in the layout, a lack of instructions on how to use the tools, difficulties with comprehensibility, and a large amount of variety in terms of the preferred amount of information. Although participants frequently commented that it was easy for them to find requested information, we observed that the large majority of the participants were not able to find it. Conclusions Overall, older cancer patients appreciate and are able to use cancer information websites. However, this study shows the importance

  17. Smokers’ Views on Personal Carbon Monoxide Monitors, Associated Apps, and Their Use: An Interview and Think-Aloud Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Herbeć

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Smartphone-based personal carbon monoxide (CO monitors and associated apps, or “CO Smartphone Systems” (CSSs for short, could enable smokers to independently monitor their smoking and quitting. This study explored views and preferences regarding CSSs and their use among 16 adult, UK-based smokers. First, semi-structured interviews explored participants’ expectations of CSSs. Secondly, a think-aloud study identified participants’ reactions to a personal CO monitor and to existing or prototype apps. Framework Analysis identified five themes: (1 General views, needs, and motivation to use CSSs; (2 Views on the personal CO monitor; (3 Practicalities of CSS use; (4 Desired features in associated apps; and (5 Factors affecting preferences for CSSs and their use. Participants had high expectations of CSSs and their potential to increase motivation. Priority app features included: easy CO testing journeys, relevant and motivating feedback, and recording of contextual data. Appearance and usability of the personal CO monitor, and accuracy and relevance of CO testing were considered important for engagement. Participants differed in their motivation to use and preferences for CSSs features and use, which might have non-trivial impact on evaluation efforts. Personal CO monitors and associated apps may be attractive tools for smokers, but making CSSs easy to use and evaluating these among different groups of smokers may be challenging.

  18. Smokers' Views on Personal Carbon Monoxide Monitors, Associated Apps, and Their Use: An Interview and Think-Aloud Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbeć, Aleksandra; Perski, Olga; Shahab, Lion; West, Robert

    2018-02-07

    Smartphone-based personal carbon monoxide (CO) monitors and associated apps, or "CO Smartphone Systems" (CSSs) for short, could enable smokers to independently monitor their smoking and quitting. This study explored views and preferences regarding CSSs and their use among 16 adult, UK-based smokers. First, semi-structured interviews explored participants' expectations of CSSs. Secondly, a think-aloud study identified participants' reactions to a personal CO monitor and to existing or prototype apps. Framework Analysis identified five themes: (1) General views, needs, and motivation to use CSSs; (2) Views on the personal CO monitor; (3) Practicalities of CSS use; (4) Desired features in associated apps; and (5) Factors affecting preferences for CSSs and their use. Participants had high expectations of CSSs and their potential to increase motivation. Priority app features included: easy CO testing journeys, relevant and motivating feedback, and recording of contextual data. Appearance and usability of the personal CO monitor, and accuracy and relevance of CO testing were considered important for engagement. Participants differed in their motivation to use and preferences for CSSs features and use, which might have non-trivial impact on evaluation efforts. Personal CO monitors and associated apps may be attractive tools for smokers, but making CSSs easy to use and evaluating these among different groups of smokers may be challenging.

  19. Thinking in clinical nursing practice: a study of critical care nurses' thinking applying the think-aloud, protocol analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hesook Suzie; Kim, Mae-Ja; Hong, Kyung-Ja; Park, Sungae; Yun, Soon-Nyoung; Song, Misoon; Jung, Yoenyi; Kim, Haewon; Kim, Dong-Oak Debbie; Choi, Heejung; Kim, Kyungae

    2007-06-01

    The purpose of the paper is to discover the patterns and processes of decision-making in clinical nursing practice. A set of think-aloud data from five critical care nurses during 40 to 50 minutes of caregiving in intensive care units were obtained and analyzed by applying the procedures recommended by Ericsson and Simon for protocol analysis. Four thinking processes before acting were identified to constitute various sorts of thoughts in which the nurses were engaged during patient care: reviewing, validation, consideration, rationalization, and action. In addition, three patterns of sequential streaming of thinking (short, intermediate, long) were identified to reveal various ways the nurses dealt with clinical situations involving nursing tasks and responsibilities. This study specifies the initial categories of thoughts for each of the processes and various patterns with which these processes are sequentially combined, providing insights into the ways nurses think about problems and address their concerns. The findings suggest that the thinking in clinical practice involves more than focused decision-making and reasoning, and needs to be examined from a broader perspective.

  20. Clinical reasoning in nursing, a think-aloud study using virtual patients - a base for an innovative assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Elenita; Ziegert, Kristina; Hult, Håkan; Fors, Uno

    2014-04-01

    In health-care education, it is important to assess the competencies that are essential for the professional role. To develop clinical reasoning skills is crucial for nursing practice and therefore an important learning outcome in nursing education programmes. Virtual patients (VPs) are interactive computer simulations of real-life clinical scenarios and have been suggested for use not only for learning, but also for assessment of clinical reasoning. The aim of this study was to investigate how experienced paediatric nurses reason regarding complex VP cases and how they make clinical decisions. The study was also aimed to give information about possible issues that should be assessed in clinical reasoning exams for post-graduate students in diploma specialist paediatric nursing education. The information from this study is believed to be of high value when developing scoring and grading models for a VP-based examination for the specialist diploma in paediatric nursing education. Using the think-aloud method, data were collected from 30 RNs working in Swedish paediatric departments, and child or school health-care centres. Content analysis was used to analyse the data. The results indicate that experienced nurses try to consolidate their hypotheses by seeing a pattern and judging the value of signs, symptoms, physical examinations, laboratory tests and radiology. They show high specific competence but earlier experience of similar cases was also of importance for the decision making. The nurses thought it was an innovative assessment focusing on clinical reasoning and clinical decision making. They thought it was an enjoyable way to be assessed and that all three main issues could be assessed using VPs. In conclusion, VPs seem to be a possible model for assessing the clinical reasoning process and clinical decision making, but how to score and grade such exams needs further research. © 2013.

  1. ED Triage Decision-Making With Mental Health Presentations: A "Think Aloud" Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Diana E; Boyce-Gaudreau, Krystal; Sanderson, Ana; Baker, John A

    2015-11-01

    Triage is the process whereby persons presenting to the emergency department are quickly assessed by a nurse and their need for care and service is prioritized. Research examining the care of persons presenting to emergency departments with psychiatric and mental health problems has shown that triage has often been cited as the most problematic aspect of the encounter. Three questions guided this investigation: Where do the decisions that triage nurses make fall on the intuitive versus analytic dimensions of decision making for mental health presentations in the emergency department, and does this differ according to comfort or familiarity with the type of mental health/illness presentation? How do "decision aids" (i.e., structured triage scales) help in the decision-making process? To what extent do other factors, such as attitudes, influence triage nurses' decision making? Eleven triage nurses participating in this study were asked to talk out loud about the reasoning process they would engage in while triaging patients in 5 scenarios based on mental health presentations to the emergency department. Themes emerging from the data were tweaking the results (including the use of intuition and early judgments) to arrive at the desired triage score; consideration of the current ED environment; managing uncertainty and risk (including the consideration of physical reasons for presentation); and confidence in communicating with patients in distress and managing their own emotive reactions to the scenario. Findings support the preference for using the intuitive mode of decision making with only tacit reliance on the decision aid. Copyright © 2015 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Physiotherapists use a great variety of motor learning options in neurological rehabilitation, from which they choose through an iterative process: a retrospective think-aloud study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynen, Melanie; Moser, Albine; Haarsma, Frederike A; Beurskens, Anna J; Braun, Susy M

    2017-08-01

    The goal of this study was to examine which motor learning options are applied by experienced physiotherapists in neurological rehabilitation, and how they choose between the different options. A descriptive qualitative approach was used. A purposive sample of five expert physiotherapists from the neurological ward of a rehabilitation center participated. Data were collected using nine videotaped therapy situations. During retrospective think-aloud interviews, the physiotherapists were instructed to constantly "think aloud" while they were watching their own videos. Five "operators" were identified: "act", "know", "observe", "assess" and "argue". The "act" operator consisted of 34 motor learning options, which were clustered into "instruction", "feedback" and "organization". The "know", "observe", "assess" and "argue" operators explained how therapists chose one of these options. The four operators seem to be interrelated and together lead to a decision to apply a particular motor learning option. Results show that the participating physiotherapists used a great variety of motor learning options in their treatment sessions. Further, the decision-making process with regard to these motor learning options was identified. Results may support future intervention studies that match the content and process of therapy in daily practice. The study should be repeated with other physiotherapists. Implications for Rehabilitation The study provided insight into the way experienced therapist handle the great variety of possible motor learning options, including concrete ideas on how to operationalize these options in specific situations. Despite differences in patients' abilities, it seems that therapists use the same underlying clinical reasoning process when choosing a particular motor learning option. Participating physiotherapists used more than the in guidelines suggested motor learning options and considered more than the suggested factors, hence adding practice based

  3. Improving the Quality of Think-Alouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ness, Molly; Kenny, MaryBeth

    2016-01-01

    An essential element in teaching children to effectively comprehend text is the use of teacher-led think alouds. This article presents a three-step model to improve the quality and quantity of think alouds in K-6 classrooms. The article follows elementary teachers who planned, implemented, transcribed, and reflected upon think aloud lessons to…

  4. Competent Adolescent Readers' Use of Internet Reading Strategies: A Think-Aloud Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Byeong-Young

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the type, pattern, and complexity of Internet reading strategies used by seven accomplished high school readers. Individual participants performed an academic Internet reading task with the goal of developing critical questions about their chosen controversial topic. Strategies for Internet reading were…

  5. Microservices as an Evolutionary Architecture of Component-Based Development: A Think-aloud Study

    OpenAIRE

    Parizi, Reza M.

    2018-01-01

    Microservices become a fast growing and popular architectural style based on service-oriented development. One of the major advantages using component-based approaches is to support reuse. In this paper, we present a study of microservices and how these systems are related to the traditional abstract models of component-based systems. This research focuses on the core properties of microservices including their scalability, availability and resilience, consistency, coupling and cohesion, and ...

  6. Smokers' and drinkers' choice of smartphone applications and expectations of engagement: a think aloud and interview study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perski, Olga; Blandford, Ann; Ubhi, Harveen Kaur; West, Robert; Michie, Susan

    2017-02-28

    Public health organisations such as the National Health Service in the United Kingdom and the National Institutes of Health in the United States provide access to online libraries of publicly endorsed smartphone applications (apps); however, there is little evidence that users rely on this guidance. Rather, one of the most common methods of finding new apps is to search an online store. As hundreds of smoking cessation and alcohol-related apps are currently available on the market, smokers and drinkers must actively choose which app to download prior to engaging with it. The influences on this choice are yet to be identified. This study aimed to investigate 1) design features that shape users' choice of smoking cessation or alcohol reduction apps, and 2) design features judged to be important for engagement. Adult smokers (n = 10) and drinkers (n = 10) interested in using an app to quit/cut down were asked to search an online store to identify and explore a smoking cessation or alcohol reduction app of their choice whilst thinking aloud. Semi-structured interview techniques were used to allow participants to elaborate on their statements. An interpretivist theoretical framework informed the analysis. Verbal reports were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Participants chose apps based on their immediate look and feel, quality as judged by others' ratings and brand recognition ('social proof'), and titles judged to be realistic and relevant. Monitoring and feedback, goal setting, rewards and prompts were identified as important for engagement, fostering motivation and autonomy. Tailoring of content, a non-judgmental communication style, privacy and accuracy were viewed as important for engagement, fostering a sense of personal relevance and trust. Sharing progress on social media and the use of craving management techniques in social settings were judged not to be engaging because of concerns about others

  7. "Even 'Daily' is Not Enough": How Well Do We Measure Domestic Violence and Abuse?-A Think-Aloud Study of a Commonly Used Self-Report Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Maggie; Gregory, Alison; Feder, Gene; Howarth, Emma; Hegarty, Kelsey

    2016-01-01

    This article explores the challenges of providing a quantitative measure of domestic violence and abuse (DVA), illustrated by the Composite Abuse Scale, a validated multidimensional measure of frequency and severity of abuse, used worldwide for prevalence studies and intervention trials. Cognitive "think-aloud" and qualitative interviewing with a sample of women who had experienced DVA revealed a tendency toward underreporting their experience of abuse, particularly of coercive control, threatening behavior, restrictions to freedom, and sexual abuse. Underreporting was linked to inconsistency and uncertainty in item interpretation and response, fear of answering truthfully, and unwillingness to identify with certain forms of abuse. Suggestions are made for rewording or reconceptualizing items and the inclusion of a distress scale to measure the individual impact of abuse. The importance of including qualitative methods in questionnaire design and in the interpretation of quantitative findings is highlighted.

  8. Think-Aloud Reading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bengtsson, Mette

    2018-01-01

    engage in the implied audience offered, others have strong negative reactions refusing to take it upon them. The study shows how readers react to the commentators postulating manner, and call for arguments to use in discussions with family and friend. About the book: This book examines the reception...... of rhetoric and the rhetoric of reception. By considering salient rhetorical traits of rhetorical utterances and texts seen in context, and relating this to different kinds of reception and/or audience use and negotiation, the authors explore the connections between rhetoric and reception. In our time, new......About the book chapter: Bengtsson investigates how selected audiences react to the implied audience in Danish political print newspaper commentary. When introducing the concept of second persona, Edwin Black only uses vague expressions like “vector of influence” and “the pull of an ideology” about...

  9. The Disruptive Effect of Think Aloud

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Janni; Yssing, Carsten

    Thinking Aloud Thinking Aloud is the most commonly used technique used to test users´ interaction with computers. The assumption is that Think Aloud gives access to what goes on in the users´ minds. However, interfaces are multi modal and play heavily on user´s visual perception. Reflecting upon...... Think Aloud (TA), we ask the question: what happens when users are required to verbalise their visual perceptions and interactions? We argue that TA may have a disruptive effect, suggesting that other techniques be considered. With a theoretical distinction between focal and subsidiary awareness...... and a focus on the sense making process, we develop a frame for test of user´s visual interaction which rely on the coordination between hand/mouse and eye/cursor.Author Keywords: Think Aloud, visual perception, interaction, test...

  10. Scrutinising usability evaluation: does thinking aloud affect behaviour and mental workload?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Hansen, Kristin Due; Andersen, Hans Henrik

    2009-01-01

    thinking aloud participants took longer to solve tasks, spent a larger part of tasks on general distributed visual behaviour, issued more commands to navigate both within and between the pages of the websites used in the experiment, and experienced higher mental workload. Implications for usability......Thinking aloud is widely used for usability evaluation. The validity of the method is, however, debatable because it is generally used in a relaxed way that conflicts with the prescriptions of the classic model for obtaining valid verbalisations of thought processes. This study investigates whether...... participants that think aloud in the classic or relaxed way behave differently compared to performing in silence. Results indicate that whereas classic thinking aloud has little or no effect on behaviour apart from prolonging tasks, relaxed thinking aloud affects behaviour in multiple ways. During relaxed...

  11. Authors’ reply: Response to “Older cancer patients’ user experiences with web-based health information tools: A think-aloud study"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolle, S.; Romijn, G.; Smets, E.M.A; Loos, E.F.; Kunneman, M.; van Weert, J.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    We greatly appreciate the thoughtful comments of Gokani and colleagues [1] in response to our article “Older Cancer Patients’ User Experiences With Web-Based Health Information Tools: A Think-Aloud Study” [2]. We are happy to elaborate on the points for which they request further clarification.

  12. "Think aloud" and "Near live" usability testing of two complex clinical decision support tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Safiya; Mishuris, Rebecca; O'Connell, Alexander; Feldstein, David; Hess, Rachel; Smith, Paul; McCullagh, Lauren; McGinn, Thomas; Mann, Devin

    2017-10-01

    Low provider adoption continues to be a significant barrier to realizing the potential of clinical decision support. "Think Aloud" and "Near Live" usability testing were conducted on two clinical decision support tools. Each was composed of an alert, a clinical prediction rule which estimated risk of either group A Streptococcus pharyngitis or pneumonia and an automatic order set based on risk. The objective of this study was to further understanding of the facilitators of usability and to evaluate the types of additional information gained from proceeding to "Near Live" testing after completing "Think Aloud". This was a qualitative observational study conducted at a large academic health care system with 12 primary care providers. During "Think Aloud" testing, participants were provided with written clinical scenarios and asked to verbalize their thought process while interacting with the tool. During "Near Live" testing participants interacted with a mock patient. Morae usability software was used to record full screen capture and audio during every session. Participant comments were placed into coding categories and analyzed for generalizable themes. Themes were compared across usability methods. "Think Aloud" and "Near Live" usability testing generated similar themes under the coding categories visibility, workflow, content, understand-ability and navigation. However, they generated significantly different themes under the coding categories usability, practical usefulness and medical usefulness. During both types of testing participants found the tool easier to use when important text was distinct in its appearance, alerts were passive and appropriately timed, content was up to date, language was clear and simple, and each component of the tool included obvious indicators of next steps. Participant comments reflected higher expectations for usability and usefulness during "Near Live" testing. For example, visit aids, such as automatically generated order sets

  13. Employing think-aloud protocols and constructive interaction to test the usability of online library catalogues: A methodological comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Den Haak, M. J.; De Jong, M. D T; Schellens, P. J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a comparative study of three usability test approaches: concurrent think-aloud protocols, retrospective think-aloud protocols, and constructive interaction. These three methods were compared by means of an evaluation of an online library catalogue, which involved four points of

  14. Employing think-aloud protocols and constructive interaction to test the usability of online library catalogues: a methodological comparison.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Haak, M.J.; de Jong, Menno D.T.; Schellens, P.J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a comparative study of three usability test approaches: concurrent think-aloud protocols, retrospective think-aloud protocols, and constructive interaction. These three methods were compared by means of an evaluation of an online library catalogue, which involved four points of

  15. Thinking in Clinical Nursing Practice: A Study of Critical Care Nurses' Thinking Applying the Think-Aloud, Protocol Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung-Ja Han, RN, PhD

    2007-06-01

    Conclusion: This study specifies the initial categories of thoughts for each of the processes and various patterns with which these processes are sequentially combined, providing insights into the ways nurses think about problems and address their concerns. The findings suggest that the thinking in clinical practice involves more than focused decision-making and reasoning, and needs to be examined from a broader perspective.

  16. Scanning and Deep Processing of Information in Hypertext: An Eye Tracking and Cued Retrospective Think-Aloud Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmerón, L.; Naumann, J.; García, V.; Fajardo, I.

    2017-01-01

    When students solve problems on the Internet, they have to find a balance between quickly scanning large sections of information in web pages and deeply processing those that are relevant for the task. We studied how high school students articulate scanning and deeper processing of information while answering questions using a Wikipedia document,…

  17. Levels of line graph question interpretation with intermediate elementary students of varying scientific and mathematical knowledge and ability: A think aloud study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Stacy Kathryn

    This study examined how intermediate elementary students' mathematics and science background knowledge affected their interpretation of line graphs and how their interpretations were affected by graph question levels. A purposive sample of 14 6th-grade students engaged in think aloud interviews (Ericsson & Simon, 1993) while completing an excerpted Test of Graphing in Science (TOGS) (McKenzie & Padilla, 1986). Hand gestures were video recorded. Student performance on the TOGS was assessed using an assessment rubric created from previously cited factors affecting students' graphing ability. Factors were categorized using Bertin's (1983) three graph question levels. The assessment rubric was validated by Padilla and a veteran mathematics and science teacher. Observational notes were also collected. Data were analyzed using Roth and Bowen's semiotic process of reading graphs (2001). Key findings from this analysis included differences in the use of heuristics, self-generated questions, science knowledge, and self-motivation. Students with higher prior achievement used a greater number and variety of heuristics and more often chose appropriate heuristics. They also monitored their understanding of the question and the adequacy of their strategy and answer by asking themselves questions. Most used their science knowledge spontaneously to check their understanding of the question and the adequacy of their answers. Students with lower and moderate prior achievement favored one heuristic even when it was not useful for answering the question and rarely asked their own questions. In some cases, if students with lower prior achievement had thought about their answers in the context of their science knowledge, they would have been able to recognize their errors. One student with lower prior achievement motivated herself when she thought the questions were too difficult. In addition, students answered the TOGS in one of three ways: as if they were mathematics word problems

  18. Think aloud: acute stress and coping strategies during golf performances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Adam R; Polman, Remco C J

    2008-07-01

    A limitation of the sport psychology coping literature is the amount of time between a stressful episode and the recall of the coping strategies used in the stressful event (Nicholls & Polman, 2007). The purpose of this study was to develop and implement a technique to measure acute stress and coping during performance. Five high-performance adolescent golfers took part in Level 2 verbalization think aloud trials (Ericsson & Simon, 1993), which involved participants verbalizing their thoughts, over six holes of golf. Verbal reports were audio-recorded during each performance, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using protocol analysis (Ericsson & Simon, 1993). Stressors and coping strategies varied throughout the six holes, which support the proposition that stress and coping is a dynamic process that changes across phases of the same performance (Lazarus, 1999). The results also revealed information regarding the sequential patterning of stress and coping, suggesting that the golfers experienced up to five stressors before reporting a coping strategy. Think aloud appears a suitable method to collect concurrent stress and coping data.

  19. An experimental study on a training support system utilizing trainee's eye gaze point and think aloud protocol for diagnosing nuclear power plant anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozawa, Takahisa; Samejima, Ryouta; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu

    2003-01-01

    An experimental system has been developed for aiming at supporting the simulator training of diagnosis nuclear power plant anomaly, where an expert provides the instructions to a trainee by his/her own educational and experienced point of view. This system has several characteristics as follows: (1) the expert can provide the instruction through the local area network or the Internet, (2) the training task is the detection of the primary cause of plant anomaly, which is not including the plant operation but requires only thinking, and (3) the system can automatically detects the trainee's view-point and think aloud protocols and provide these two types of information to the expert in real time for supporting his/her instruction. A laboratory experiment using this system was conducted, where an expert, who had really engaged in plant operation as a chief operator, was employed as the instructor for novice students. As the result of analyzing the experimental data, it was found that the two types of information, trainee's viewpoints and his verbal protocols, have some potential of effectiveness for supporting the instructor to estimate the trainees diagnostic thinking process and provide the instruction. (author)

  20. Exploring the Writing Process of Indonesian EFL Students: The Effectiveness of Think-Aloud Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abas, Imelda Hermilinda; Aziz, Noor Hashima Abd

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to explore the writing process of the Indonesian English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students and to find out the effectiveness of using think-aloud protocol to understand the writing process. The data were obtained from six proficient EFL students who were doing Postgraduate English Language Studies Program in…

  1. A Think-Aloud Protocols Investigation of Dictionary Processing Strategies among Saudi EFL Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhaysony, Maha

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to examine qualitatively how Saudi EFL female students look-up word meanings in their dictionaries while reading. We aimed to identify and describe the look-up strategies used by these students. The subjects of the study were ten third-year English major students. A think-aloud protocol was used in order to gain insights into the…

  2. Exploring two methods of usability testing: concurrent versus retrospective think-aloud protocols

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Haak, M.J.; de Jong, Menno D.T.

    2003-01-01

    Think-aloud protocols are commonly used for the usability testing of instructional documents, Web sites and interfaces. This paper addresses the benefits and drawbacks of two think-aloud variations: the traditional concurrent think-aloud method and the less familiar retrospective think-aloud

  3. Exploring Two Methods of Usability Testing : Concurrent versus Retrospective Think-Aloud Protocols

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van den Haak, Maaike J.; De Jong, Menno D. T.

    2003-01-01

    Think-aloud protocols are commonly used for the usability testing of instructional documents, web sites and interfaces. This paper addresses the benefits and drawbacks of two think-aloud variations: the traditional concurrent think-aloud method and the less familiar retrospective think-aloud

  4. Does the thinking aloud condition affect the search for pulmonary nodules?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littlefair, Stephen; Brennan, Patrick; Reed, Warren; Williams, Mark; Pietrzyk, Mariusz W.

    2012-02-01

    Aim: To measure the effect of thinking aloud on perceptual accuracy and visual search behavior during chest radiograph interpretation for pulmonary nodules. Background: Thinking Aloud (TA) is an empirical research method used by researchers in cognitive psychology and behavioural analysis. In this pilot study we wanted to examine whether TA had an effect on the perceptual accuracy and search patterns of subjects looking for pulmonary nodules on adult posterioranterior chest radiographs (PA CxR). Method: Seven academics within Medical Radiation Sciences at The University of Sydney participated in two reading sessions with and without TA. Their task was to localize pulmonary nodules on 30 PA CxR using mouse clicks and rank their confidence levels of nodule presence. Eye-tracking recordings were collected during both viewing sessions. Time to first fixation, duration of first fixation, number of fixations, cumulative time of fixation and total viewing time were analysed. In addition, ROC analysis was conducted on collected outcome using DBM methodology. Results: Time to first nodule fixation was significantly longer (p=0.001) and duration of first fixation was significantly shorter (p=0.043). No significant difference was observed in ROC AUC scores between control and TA conditions. Conclusion: Our results confirm that TA has little effect on perceptual ability or performance, except for prolonging the task. However, there were significant differences in visual search behavior. Future researchers in radio-diagnosis could use the think aloud condition rather than silence so as to more closely replicate the clinical scenario.

  5. Quantifying Accurate Calorie Estimation Using the "Think Aloud" Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmstrup, Michael E.; Stearns-Bruening, Kay; Rozelle, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Clients often have limited time in a nutrition education setting. An improved understanding of the strategies used to accurately estimate calories may help to identify areas of focused instruction to improve nutrition knowledge. Methods: A "Think Aloud" exercise was recorded during the estimation of calories in a standard dinner meal…

  6. The Influence of Collaborative Reflection and Think-Aloud Protocols on Pre-Service Teachers' Reflection: A Mixed Methods Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epler, Cory M.; Drape, Tiffany A.; Broyles, Thomas W.; Rudd, Rick D.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to determine if there are differences in pre-service teachers' depth of reflection when using a written self-reflection form, a written self-reflection form and a think-aloud protocol, and collaborative reflection. Twenty-six pre-service teachers were randomly assigned to fourteen teaching teams. The…

  7. Developing best practices teaching procedures for skinfold assessment: observational examination using the Think Aloud method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmstrup, Michael E; Verba, Steven D; Lynn, Jeffrey S

    2015-12-01

    Skinfold assessment is valid and economical; however, it has a steep learning curve, and many programs only include one exposure to the technique. Increasing the number of exposures to skinfold assessment within an undergraduate curriculum would likely increase skill proficiency. The present study combined observational and Think Aloud methodologies to quantify procedural and cognitive characteristics of skinfold assessment. It was hypothesized that 1) increased curricular exposure to skinfold assessment would improve proficiency and 2) the combination of an observational and Think Aloud analysis would provide quantifiable areas of emphasis for instructing skinfold assessment. Seventy-five undergraduates with varied curricular exposure performed a seven-site skinfold assessment on a test subject while expressing their thoughts aloud. A trained practitioner recorded procedural observations, with transcripts generated from audio recordings to capture cognitive information. Skinfold measurements were compared with a criterion value, and bias scores were generated. Participants whose total bias fell within ±3.5% of the criterion value were proficient, with the remainder nonproficient. An independent-samples t-test was used to compare procedural and cognitive observations across experience and proficiency groups. Additional curricular exposure improved performance of skinfold assessment in areas such as the measurement of specific sites (e.g., chest, abdomen, and thigh) and procedural (e.g., landmark identification) and cognitive skills (e.g., complete site explanation). Furthermore, the Think Aloud method is a valuable tool for determining curricular strengths and weaknesses with skinfold assessment and as a pedagogical tool for individual instruction and feedback in the classroom. Copyright © 2015 The American Physiological Society.

  8. Comparison of Think-Aloud and Constructive Interaction in Usability Testing with Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Als, Benedikte Skibsted; Jensen, Janne Jul; Skov, Mikael B.

    2005-01-01

    Constructive interaction provides natural thinking-aloud as test subjects collaborate to solve tasks. Since children may face difficulties in following instructions for a standard think-aloud test, constructive interaction has been suggested as evaluation method when usability testing with childr......, the acquainted pairs reported that they had to put less effort into the testing than the think-aloud and non-acquainted children....

  9. Experimentally induced distraction impacts cognitive but not emotional processes in think-aloud cognitive assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kean J. Hsu

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Studies have examined the impact of distraction on basic task performance (e.g., working memory, motor responses, yet research is lacking regarding its impact in the domain of think-aloud cognitive assessment, where the threat to assessment validity is high. The Articulated Thoughts in Simulated Situations think-aloud cognitive assessment paradigm was employed to address this issue. Participants listened to scenarios under three conditions (i.e., while answering trivia questions, playing a visual puzzle game, or with no experimental distractor. Their articulated thoughts were then content-analyzed both by the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC program and by content analysis of emotion and cognitive processes conducted by trained coders. Distraction did not impact indices of emotion but did affect cognitive processes. Specifically, with the LIWC system, the trivia questions distraction condition resulted in significantly higher proportions of insight and causal words, and higher frequencies of non-fluencies (e.g., uh or umm and filler words (e.g., like or you know. Coder-rated content analysis found more disengagement and more misunderstanding particularly in the trivia questions distraction condition. A better understanding of how distraction disrupts the amount and type of cognitive engagement holds important implications for future studies employing cognitive assessment methods.

  10. THINK ALOUD PAIR PROBLEM SOLVING (TAPPS STRATEGY IN TEACHING READING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Zuhri Dj

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research is aim to know what extent the achievement of students’ reading comprehension by using Think Aloud Pair Problem Solving (TAPPS strategy at the tenth grade students of SMKN 3 Watampone. the objectives of the research is to know what extent the achievement of student’s reading comprehension by using Think Aloud Pair Problem Solving (TAPPS strategy. The population of this research is the tenth grade students of SMKN 3 Watampone which has 149 students. The writers applied random sampling, because the school has students more than 100 students. The X Multimedia Class is taken as the sample, because it has many students who have low values in English subject based on their teacher report. This research employs an instrument based on the problem statements investigated, It is Reading comprehension test. After several meetings, this research finds out the achievement of students’ reading comprehension significantly effective to improve the student’s reading comprehension. The result of this research shows that the mean score obtained by the students through pretest was 46.545 and posttest was 88.364; the t-test value was higher than the t-table (49.385 > 2.080. It means that there is a significant difference between the result of the students’ pretest and posttest

  11. Using Think Aloud Interviews in Evidence-Centered Assessment Design for the AP World History Exam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaliski, Pamela; France, Megan; Huff, Kristen; Thurber, Allison

    2011-01-01

    Developing a cognitive model of task performance is an important and often overlooked phase in assessment design; failing to establish such a model can threaten the validity of the inferences made from the scores produced by an assessment (e.g., Leighton, 2004). Conducting think aloud interviews (TAIs), where students think aloud while completing…

  12. What do thinking-aloud participants say? A comparison of moderated and unmoderated usability sessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Borlund, Pia; Kristoffersen, Kristina Bonde

    2015-01-01

    The value of thinking aloud in usability tests depends on the content of the users’ verbalizations. We investigated moderated and unmoderated users’ verbalizations during relaxed thinking aloud (i.e., verbalization at levels 1 through 3). Verbalizations of user experience were frequent and mostly...

  13. Taxonomies in L1 and L2 Reading Strategies: A Critical Review of Issues Surrounding Strategy-Use Definitions and Classifications in Previous Think-Aloud Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhaleefah, Tarek A.

    2016-01-01

    Considering the various classifications of L1 and L2 reading strategies in previous think-aloud studies, the present review aims to provide a comprehensive look into those various taxonomies reported in major L1 and L2 reading studies. The rationale for this review is not only to offer a comprehensive overview of the different classifications in…

  14. 'The ICECAP-SCM tells you more about what I'm going through': A think-aloud study measuring quality of life among patients receiving supportive and palliative care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Cara; Kinghorn, Philip; Orlando, Rosanna; Armour, Kathy; Perry, Rachel; Jones, Louise; Coast, Joanna

    2016-07-01

    The ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure is a self-complete questionnaire developed to aid economic evaluation of supportive care interventions. To determine the feasibility of completing ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure alongside EQ-5D-5L and ICECAP-A (generic measures used in economic evaluation) among patients receiving hospice care, close persons and healthcare professionals. Participants were asked to 'think aloud' while completing ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure and two other generic measures used in economic evaluation, EQ-5D-5L and ICECAP-A, and then participate in a semi-structured interview. From verbatim transcripts, five raters identified the frequency of errors in comprehension, retrieval, judgement and response. Qualitative data were analysed using constant comparison. Eligible patients were identified from one UK hospice by a research nurse. Close persons and healthcare professionals were identified by the patient. In all, 72 semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients (n = 33), close persons (n = 22) and healthcare professionals (n = 17). Patients and close persons reported that the ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure was most appropriate for measuring their quality of life. It appeared more meaningful, easier to complete and had fewest errors (3.9% among patients, 4.5% among close persons) compared to EQ-5D-5L (9.7% among patients, 5.5% among close persons). Healthcare professionals acknowledged the value of the ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure but had fewer errors in completing the EQ-5D-5L (3.5% versus 6.7%). They found it easier to complete because it focuses on observable health states. The ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure is feasible to use and perceived as appropriate for evaluating palliative care interventions. Healthcare professionals with limited knowledge of the patient who act as proxy completers may find the measure difficult to complete. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Using Think Aloud Protocols to Assess E-Prescribing in Community Pharmacies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olufunmilola K. Odukoya, BPharm, MS

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Think aloud protocol has rarely been used as a method of data collection in community pharmacies.Purpose: The aim of the report is to describe how think aloud protocols were used to identify issues that arise when using e-prescribing technology in pharmacies. In this paper, we report on the benefits and challenges of using think aloud protocols in pharmacies to examine the use of e-prescribing systems.Methods: Sixteen pharmacists and pharmacy technicians were recruited from seven community pharmacies in Wisconsin. Data were collected using direct observation alongside think aloud protocol. Direct observations and think aloud protocols took place between January-February, 2011. Participants were asked to verbalize their thoughts as they process electronic prescriptions.Results: Participants identified weaknesses in e-prescribing that they had previously not conceived. This created heightened awareness for vigilance when processing e-prescriptions. The main challenge with using think aloud protocols was due to interruptions in the pharmacies. Also, a few participants found it challenging to remember to continue verbalizing their thought process during think aloud sessions.Conclusion: The use of think aloud protocols as method of data collection is a new way for understanding the issues related to technology use in community pharmacy practice. Think aloud protocol was beneficial in providing objective information on e-prescribing use not solely based on pharmacist’s or technician’s opinion of the technology. This method provided detailed information on a wide variety of real time challenges with e-prescribing technology use in community pharmacies. Using this data collection method can help identify potential patient safety issues when using e-prescribing and suggestions for redesign.

  16. Establishing survey validity and reliability for American Indians through "think aloud" and test-retest methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauge, Cindy Horst; Jacobs-Knight, Jacque; Jensen, Jamie L; Burgess, Katherine M; Puumala, Susan E; Wilton, Georgiana; Hanson, Jessica D

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to use a mixed-methods approach to determine the validity and reliability of measurements used within an alcohol-exposed pregnancy prevention program for American Indian women. To develop validity, content experts provided input into the survey measures, and a "think aloud" methodology was conducted with 23 American Indian women. After revising the measurements based on this input, a test-retest was conducted with 79 American Indian women who were randomized to complete either the original measurements or the new, modified measurements. The test-retest revealed that some of the questions performed better for the modified version, whereas others appeared to be more reliable for the original version. The mixed-methods approach was a useful methodology for gathering feedback on survey measurements from American Indian participants and in indicating specific survey questions that needed to be modified for this population. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Does the think-aloud protocol reflect thinking? Exploring functional neuroimaging differences with thinking (answering multiple choice questions) versus thinking aloud

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Durning, S.J.; Artino, A.R.; Beckman, T.J.; Graner, J.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der; Holmboe, E.; Schuwirth, L.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Whether the think-aloud protocol is a valid measure of thinking remains uncertain. Therefore, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate potential functional neuroanatomic differences between thinking (answering multiple-choice questions in real time) versus

  18. Thinking aloud during idea generating and planning before written translation: Developmental changes from ages 10 to 12 in expressing and defending opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Matt; Berninger, Virginia

    2016-01-01

    This interdisciplinary research, drawing on cognitive psychology and linguistics, extended to middle childhood past research during early childhood or adulthood on thinking aloud prior to written composing. In year 5 of a longitudinal study of typical writing, when cohort 1 was in grade 5 ( n = 110 ten year-olds) and cohort 2 in grade 7 ( n = 97 twelve year-olds), a cross-sectional study was conducted. Children were first asked to think aloud while they generated ideas and second while they planned their essays to express and defend their opinions on a controversial topic in the region of the United States where they lived. Third, they wrote their essays. Their think-aloud protocols were audio-recorded and later transcribed into writing for analysis. The authors developed and applied rating scales for quality of idea generating and planning in the written transcriptions and quality of opinion expression, opinion defense, organization, and content in the essays children wrote after thinking aloud; total number of words in essays was also counted. Seventh graders scored significantly higher than fifth graders on quality of idea generation but not planning, and higher on all variables rated for quality in the written essays including length. Quality of expressing opinions and defending opinions were uncorrelated in grade 5, but moderately correlated in grade 7. Whether idea generating or planning quality explained unique variance in essays varied with coded written essay variables and grade. Educational applications of results for assessment, assessment-instruction links, instruction in social studies, and theory of mind in persuasive essay writing are discussed.

  19. Examination of the suitability of collecting in event cognitive processes using Think Aloud protocol in golf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Elizabeth Whitehead

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Two studies examined the use of think aloud (TA protocol as a means for collecting data of cognitive processes during performance in golf. In study 1, TA was employed to examine if different verbalisation (Level 2 or Level 3 TA instructions influence performance of high and low skilled golfers. Participants performed 30 putts using TA at either Level 2, Level 3, or no verbalization condition. Although Level 3 verbalization produced a higher volume of verbal data than Level 2, TA at either level 2 or 3 did not impair putting performance compared to no verbalization. Study 2 examined the congruence between data collected via TA at Level 3 and cued retrospective recall of cognitive processes during golf performance. Experienced golfers performed six holes of golf whilst engaging in Level 3 TA. After performance, three semi-structured retrospective interviews were conducted (ten minutes after performance, 24 hours after performance and 48 hours after performance. A comparison of the themes identified large discrepancies between the information reported during TA and at interview, with only 38-41% similarity in variables reported to influence decision making on each hole. Both studies suggest TA is a valuable method for recording cognitive processes of individuals during task performance. TA provides richer verbal data regarding decisions than cued retrospective recall, and TA does not negatively impact performance.

  20. Using concurrent think-aloud and protocol analysis to explore student nurses' social learning information communication technology knowledge and skill development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todhunter, Fern

    2015-06-01

    Observations obtained through concurrent think-aloud and protocol analysis offer new understanding about the influence of social learning on student nurses' acquisition of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) knowledge and skills. The software used provides a permanent record of the underpinning study method, events and analyses. The emerging themes reflect the dimensions of social engagement, and the characteristics of positive and negative reactions to ICT. The evidence shows that given the right conditions, stronger learners will support and guide their peers. To explore the use of concurrent think-aloud and protocol analysis as a method to examine how student nurses approach ICT. To identify the benefits and challenges of using observational technology to capture learning behaviours. To show the influence of small group arrangement and student interactions on their ICT knowledge and skills development. Previous studies examining social interaction between students show how they work together and respond to interactive problem solving. Social interaction has been shown to enhance skills in both ICT and collaborative decision making. Structured observational analysis using concurrent think-aloud and protocol analysis. Students displayed varying degrees of pastoral support and emotional need, leadership, reflection, suggestion and experimentation skills. Encouraging student nurses to work in small mixed ability groups can be conducive for social and ICT skill and knowledge development. Observational software gives a permanent record of the proceedings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Implementing thinking aloud pair and Pólya problem solving strategies in fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpol, N. S. H.; Shahrill, M.; Li, H.-C.; Prahmana, R. C. I.

    2017-12-01

    This study implemented two pedagogical strategies, the Thinking Aloud Pair Problem Solving and Pólya’s Problem Solving, to support students’ learning of fractions. The participants were 51 students (ages 11-13) from two Year 7 classes in a government secondary school in Brunei Darussalam. A mixed method design was employed in the present study, with data collected from the pre- and post-tests, problem solving behaviour questionnaire and interviews. The study aimed to explore if there were differences in the students’ problem solving behaviour before and after the implementation of the problem solving strategies. Results from the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test revealed a significant difference in the test results regarding student problem solving behaviour, z = -3.68, p = .000, with a higher mean score for the post-test (M = 95.5, SD = 13.8) than for the pre-test (M = 88.9, SD = 15.2). This implied that there was improvement in the students’ problem solving performance from the pre-test to the post-test. Results from the questionnaire showed that more than half of the students increased scores in all four stages of the Pólya’s problem solving strategy, which provided further evidence of the students’ improvement in problem solving.

  2. Using Think-Aloud Protocols to Investigate Secondary School Chemistry Teachers' Misconceptions about Chemical Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Derek

    2009-01-01

    Secondary school chemistry teachers' understanding of chemical equilibrium was investigated through interviews using the think-aloud technique. The interviews were conducted with twelve volunteer chemistry teachers in Hong Kong. Their teaching experience ranged from 3 to 18 years. They were asked to predict what would happen to the equilibrium…

  3. Evaluating municipal websites: A methodological comparison of three think-aloud variants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Haak, M.J.; de Jong, M.D.T.; Schellens, P.J.

    2009-01-01

    Usability methods have received relatively little methodological attention within the field of E-Government. This paper aims to address this gap by reporting on a usability test of the municipal website of Deventer (the Netherlands), carried out by means of three variants of the think-aloud method

  4. Integrating usability testing and think-aloud protocol analysis with "near-live" clinical simulations in evaluating clinical decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Alice C; Kannry, Joseph L; Kushniruk, Andre; Chrimes, Dillon; McGinn, Thomas G; Edonyabo, Daniel; Mann, Devin M

    2012-11-01

    Usability evaluations can improve the usability and workflow integration of clinical decision support (CDS). Traditional usability testing using scripted scenarios with think-aloud protocol analysis provide a useful but incomplete assessment of how new CDS tools interact with users and clinical workflow. "Near-live" clinical simulations are a newer usability evaluation tool that more closely mimics clinical workflow and that allows for a complementary evaluation of CDS usability as well as impact on workflow. This study employed two phases of testing a new CDS tool that embedded clinical prediction rules (an evidence-based medicine tool) into primary care workflow within a commercial electronic health record. Phase I applied usability testing involving "think-aloud" protocol analysis of 8 primary care providers encountering several scripted clinical scenarios. Phase II used "near-live" clinical simulations of 8 providers interacting with video clips of standardized trained patient actors enacting the clinical scenario. In both phases, all sessions were audiotaped and had screen-capture software activated for onscreen recordings. Transcripts were coded using qualitative analysis methods. In Phase I, the impact of the CDS on navigation and workflow were associated with the largest volume of negative comments (accounting for over 90% of user raised issues) while the overall usability and the content of the CDS were associated with the most positive comments. However, usability had a positive-to-negative comment ratio of only 0.93 reflecting mixed perceptions about the usability of the CDS. In Phase II, the duration of encounters with simulated patients was approximately 12 min with 71% of the clinical prediction rules being activated after half of the visit had already elapsed. Upon activation, providers accepted the CDS tool pathway 82% of times offered and completed all of its elements in 53% of all simulation cases. Only 12.2% of encounter time was spent using the

  5. A schema theory analysis of students' think aloud protocols in an STS biology context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinlan, Catherine Louise

    This dissertation study is a conglomerate of the fields of Science Education and Applied Cognitive Psychology. The goal of this study is to determine what organizational features and knowledge representation patterns high school students exhibit over time for issues pertinent to science and society. Participants are thirteen tenth grade students in a diverse suburban-urban classroom in a northeastern state. Students' think alouds are recorded, pre-, post-, and late-post treatment. Treatment consists of instruction in three Science, Technology, and Society (STS) biology issues, namely the human genome project, nutrition and health, and stem cell research. Coding and analyses are performed using Marshall's knowledge representations---identification knowledge, elaboration knowledge, planning knowledge, and execution knowledge, as well as qualitative research analysis methods. Schema theory, information processing theory, and other applied cognitive theory provide a framework in which to understand and explain students' schema descriptions and progressions over time. The results show that students display five organizational features in their identification and elaboration knowledge. Students also fall into one of four categories according to if they display prior schema or no prior schema, and their orientation "for" or "against," some of the issues. Students with prior schema and orientation "against" display the most robust schema descriptions and schema progressions. Those with no prior schemas and orientation "against" show very modest schema progressions best characterized by their keyword searches. This study shows the importance in considering not only students' integrated schemas but also their individual schemes. A role for the use of a more schema-based instruction that scaffolds student learning is implicated.

  6. Justify Your Answer: The Role of Written Think Aloud in Script Concordance Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Alyssa; Lemay, Jean-Francois; Cooke, Suzette

    2017-01-01

    Construct: Clinical reasoning assessment is a growing area of interest in the medical education literature. Script concordance testing (SCT) evaluates clinical reasoning in conditions of uncertainty and has emerged as an innovative tool in the domain of clinical reasoning assessment. SCT quantifies the degree of concordance between a learner and an experienced clinician and attempts to capture the breadth of responses of expert clinicians, acknowledging the significant yet acceptable variation in practice under situations of uncertainty. SCT has been shown to be a valid and reliable clinical reasoning assessment tool. However, as SCT provides only quantitative information, it may not provide a complete assessment of clinical reasoning. Think aloud (TA) is a qualitative research tool used in clinical reasoning assessment in which learners verbalize their thought process around an assigned task. This study explores the use of TA, in the form of written reflection, in SCT to assess resident clinical reasoning, hypothesizing that the information obtained from the written TA would enrich the quantitative data obtained through SCT. Ninety-one pediatric postgraduate trainees and 21 pediatricians from 4 Canadian training centers completed an online test consisting of 24 SCT cases immediately followed by retrospective written TA. Six of 24 cases were selected to gather TA data. These cases were chosen to allow all phases of clinical decision making (diagnosis, investigation, and treatment) to be represented in the TA data. Inductive thematic analysis was employed when systematically reviewing TA responses. Three main benefits of adding written TA to SCT were identified: (a) uncovering instances of incorrect clinical reasoning despite a correct SCT response, (b) revealing sound clinical reasoning in the context of a suboptimal SCT response, and (c) detecting question misinterpretation. Written TA can optimize SCT by demonstrating when correct examinee responses are based on

  7. Application of Learning Engineering Techniques Thinking Aloud Pair Problem Solving in Learning Mathematics Students Class VII SMPN 15 Padang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widuri, S. Y. S.; Almash, L.; Zuzano, F.

    2018-04-01

    The students activity and responsible in studying mathematic is still lack. It gives an effect for the bad result in studying mathematic. There is one of learning technic to increase students activity in the classroom and the result of studying mathematic with applying a learning technic. It is “Thinking Aloud Pair Problem Solving (TAPPS)”. The purpose of this research is to recognize the developing of students activity in mathematic subject during applying that technic “TAPPS” in seven grade at SMPN 15 Padang and compare the students proportion in learning mathematic with TAPPS between learning process without it in seven grade at SMPN 15 Padang. Students activity for indicators 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 at each meeting is likely to increase and students activity for indicator 7 at each meeting is likely to decrease. The finding of this research is χ 2 = 9,42 and the value of p is 0,0005 < p < 0,005. Therefore p < 0,05 has means H 0 was rejected and H 1 was accepted. Thus, it was concluded that the activities and result in studying mathematic increased after applying learning technic the TAPPS.

  8. Testing the validity of a translated pharmaceutical therapy-related quality of life instrument, using qualitative 'think aloud' methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renberg, T; Kettis Lindblad, A; Tully, M P

    2008-06-01

    In pharmacy practice, there is a need for valid and reliable instruments to study patient-reported outcomes. One potential candidate is a pharmaceutical therapy-related quality of life (PTRQoL) instrument. This study explored the face and content validity, including cognitive aspects of question answering of a PTRQoL instrument, translated from English to Swedish. A sample of 16 customers at Swedish community pharmacies, was asked to fill in the PTRQoL instrument while constantly reporting how they reasoned. The resulting interviews and concurrent probing, were audio-taped, transcribed verbatim and analysed using constant comparison method. The relation between the measurement and its theoretical underpinning was challenged. Respondents neglected to read the instructions, used response options in an unpredictable way, and varied in their interpretations of the items. The combination of 'think-aloud', retrospective probing and qualitative analysis informed on the validity of the PTRQoL instrument and was valuable in questionnaire development. The study also identified specific problems that could be relevant for other instruments probing patients' medicines-related attitudes and behaviour.

  9. Consumer preferences for sustainable aquaculture products: Evidence from in-depth interviews, think aloud protocols and choice experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risius, Antje; Janssen, Meike; Hamm, Ulrich

    2017-06-01

    Fish from aquaculture is becoming more important for human consumption. Sustainable aquaculture procedures were developed as an alternative to overcome the negative environmental impacts of conventional aquaculture procedures and wild fisheries. The objective of this contribution is to determine what consumers expect from sustainable aquaculture and whether they prefer sustainable aquaculture products. A combination of qualitative research methods, with think aloud protocols and in-depth interviews, as well as quantitative methods, using choice experiments and face-to-face interviews, was applied. Data was collected in three different cities of Germany. Results revealed that sustainable aquaculture was associated with natural, traditional, local, and small scale production systems with high animal welfare standards. Overall, participants paid a lot of attention to the declaration of origin; in particular fish products from Germany and Denmark were preferred along with local products. Frequently used sustainability claims for aquaculture products were mostly criticized as being imprecise by the participants of the qualitative study; even though two claims tested in the choice experiments had a significant positive impact on the choice of purchase. Similarly, existing aquaculture-specific labels for certified sustainable aquaculture had an impact on the buying decision, but were not well recognized and even less trusted. Overall, consumers had a positive attitude towards sustainable aquaculture. However, communication measures and labelling schemes should be improved to increase consumer acceptance and make a decisive impact on consumers' buying behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Think Aloud in Groups: Mediating Poetry for Children with Cecília Meireles, Paulo Freire, and John Dewey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Telma Franco

    2018-01-01

    As suggested by its title, this article reports on a Think Aloud in Group (TAG) practice in which a group of Y5 children thought aloud the poem "The Blue Boy", written in Portuguese by Cecília Meireles and translated into English by Sarah Rebecca Kersley. As a dialogical and collaborative literacy practice, TAG aims to transform the…

  11. The value of Retrospective and Concurrent Think Aloud in formative usability testing of a physician data query tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peute, Linda W. P.; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; Jaspers, Monique W. M.

    2015-01-01

    To compare the performance of the Concurrent (CTA) and Retrospective (RTA) Think Aloud method and to assess their value in a formative usability evaluation of an Intensive Care Registry-physician data query tool designed to support ICU quality improvement processes. Sixteen representative intensive

  12. Exploring the clinical decision-making used by experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists: A mixed method qualitative design of simulation, video recording and think aloud techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thackray, Debbie; Roberts, Lisa

    2017-02-01

    The ability of physiotherapists to make clinical decisions is a vital component of being an autonomous practitioner, yet this complex phenomenon has been under-researched in cardiorespiratory physiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to explore clinical decision-making (CDM) by experienced physiotherapists in a scenario of a simulated patient experiencing acute deterioration of their respiratory function. The main objective of this observational study was to identify the actions, thoughts, and behaviours used by experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists in their clinical decision-making processes. A mixed-methods (qualitative) design employing observation and think-aloud, was adopted using a computerised manikin in a simulated environment. The participants clinically assessed the manikin programmed with the same clinical signs, under standardised conditions in the clinical skills practice suite, which was set up as a ward environment. Experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists, recruited from clinical practice within a 50-mile radius of the University(*). Participants were video-recorded throughout the assessment and treatment and asked to verbalise their thought processes using the 'think-aloud' method. The recordings were transcribed verbatim and managed using a Framework approach. Eight cardiorespiratory physiotherapists participated (mean 7years clinical experience, range 3.5-16years. CDM was similar to the collaborative hypothetico-deductive model, five-rights nursing model, reasoning strategies, inductive reasoning and pattern recognition. However, the CDM demonstrated by the physiotherapists was complex, interactive and iterative. Information processing occurred continuously throughout the whole interaction with the patient, and the specific cognitive skills of recognition, matching, discriminating, relating, inferring, synthesising and prediction were identified as being used sequentially. The findings from this study were used to develop a new

  13. Self- and rater-assessed effectiveness of "thinking-aloud" and "regular" morning report to intensify young physicians' clinical skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Hui-Chi; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Yang, Ying-Ying; Tsao, Yen-Po; Lee, Wen-Shin; Chuang, Chiao-Lin; Chang, Ching-Chih; Huang, Chia-Chang; Huang, Chin-Chou; Ho, Shung-Tai

    2015-09-01

    This study compared the effects of the "thinking aloud" (TA) morning report (MR), which is characterized by sequential and interactive case discussion by all participants, with "regular" MR for clinical skill training of young physicians. Between February 2011 and February 2014, young physicians [including postgraduate year-1 (PGY1) residents, interns, and clerks) from our hospital were sequentially enrolled and followed for 3 months. The self- and rater-assessed educational values of two MR models for building up clinical skills of young physicians were compared. The junior (intern and clerk) attendees had higher self-assessed educational values scores and reported post-training application frequency of skills trained by TA MR compared with the senior (PGY1 resident) attendees. Higher average and percentage of increased overall rater-assessed OSCE scores were noted among the regular MR senior attendees and TA MR junior attendees than in their corresponding control groups (regular MR junior attendees and TA MR senior attendees). Interestingly, regular MRs provided additional beneficial effects for establishing the "professionalism, consulting skills and organization efficiency" aspects of clinical skills of senior/junior attendees. Moreover, senior and junior attendees benefited the most by participating in seven sessions of regular MR and TA MR each month, respectively. TA MR effectively trains junior attendees in basic clinical skills, whereas regular MR enhances senior attendees' "work reports, professionalism, organizational efficiency, skills in dealing with controversial and professional issues." Undoubtedly, all elements of the two MR models should be integrated together to ensure patient safety and good discipline among young physicians. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

  14. The value of Retrospective and Concurrent Think Aloud in formative usability testing of a physician data query tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peute, Linda W P; de Keizer, Nicolette F; Jaspers, Monique W M

    2015-06-01

    To compare the performance of the Concurrent (CTA) and Retrospective (RTA) Think Aloud method and to assess their value in a formative usability evaluation of an Intensive Care Registry-physician data query tool designed to support ICU quality improvement processes. Sixteen representative intensive care physicians participated in the usability evaluation study. Subjects were allocated to either the CTA or RTA method by a matched randomized design. Each subject performed six usability-testing tasks of varying complexity in the query tool in a real-working context. Methods were compared with regard to number and type of problems detected. Verbal protocols of CTA and RTA were analyzed in depth to assess differences in verbal output. Standardized measures were applied to assess thoroughness in usability problem detection weighted per problem severity level and method overall effectiveness in detecting usability problems with regard to the time subjects spent per method. The usability evaluation of the data query tool revealed a total of 43 unique usability problems that the intensive care physicians encountered. CTA detected unique usability problems with regard to graphics/symbols, navigation issues, error messages, and the organization of information on the query tool's screens. RTA detected unique issues concerning system match with subjects' language and applied terminology. The in-depth verbal protocol analysis of CTA provided information on intensive care physicians' query design strategies. Overall, CTA performed significantly better than RTA in detecting usability problems. CTA usability problem detection effectiveness was 0.80 vs. 0.62 (pusability problems of a moderate (0.85 vs. 0.7) and severe nature (0.71 vs. 0.57). In this study, the CTA is more effective in usability-problem detection and provided clarification of intensive care physician query design strategies to inform redesign of the query tool. However, CTA does not outperform RTA. The RTA

  15. Combining multivariate statistics and the think-aloud protocol to assess Human-Computer Interaction barriers in symptom checkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marco-Ruiz, Luis; Bønes, Erlend; de la Asunción, Estela; Gabarron, Elia; Aviles-Solis, Juan Carlos; Lee, Eunji; Traver, Vicente; Sato, Keiichi; Bellika, Johan G

    2017-10-01

    Symptom checkers are software tools that allow users to submit a set of symptoms and receive advice related to them in the form of a diagnosis list, health information or triage. The heterogeneity of their potential users and the number of different components in their user interfaces can make testing with end-users unaffordable. We designed and executed a two-phase method to test the respiratory diseases module of the symptom checker Erdusyk. Phase I consisted of an online test with a large sample of users (n=53). In Phase I, users evaluated the system remotely and completed a questionnaire based on the Technology Acceptance Model. Principal Component Analysis was used to correlate each section of the interface with the questionnaire responses, thus identifying which areas of the user interface presented significant contributions to the technology acceptance. In the second phase, the think-aloud procedure was executed with a small number of samples (n=15), focusing on the areas with significant contributions to analyze the reasons for such contributions. Our method was used effectively to optimize the testing of symptom checker user interfaces. The method allowed kept the cost of testing at reasonable levels by restricting the use of the think-aloud procedure while still assuring a high amount of coverage. The main barriers detected in Erdusyk were related to problems understanding time repetition patterns, the selection of levels in scales to record intensities, navigation, the quantification of some symptom attributes, and the characteristics of the symptoms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Effects of nonfiction guided interactive read-alouds and think-alouds on fourth grader's depth of content area science vocabulary knowledge and comprehension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Tania Tamara

    Effects of nonfiction guided interactive read-alouds and think-alouds as a supplement to basal science textbooks on three vocabulary measures, definitions, examples, and characteristics, and one multiple-choice comprehension measure were assessed for 127 fourth graders over three time periods: pretest, posttest, and a 2-week delayed posttest. Two of three fourth-grade elementary science teachers implemented a series of 12 content-enhanced guided interactive scripted lessons. Two of these teachers implemented two treatments each. The first condition employed basal science textbooks as the text for guided interactive read-alouds and think-alouds while the second treatment employed basal science textbooks in conjunction with nonfiction text sets as the texts for guided interactive read-alouds and think-alouds. The third teacher, guided by traditional lesson plans, provided students with silent independent reading instruction using basal science textbooks. Multivariate analyses of variance and analyses of variance tests showed that mean scores for both treatment groups significantly improved on definitions and characteristics measures at posttest and either stabilized or slightly declined at delayed posttest. The treatment-plus group lost considerably on the examples posttest measure. The treatment group improved mean scores on the examples posttest measure, outperforming the treatment-plus group and the control group. Alternately, the control group significantly improved on the delayed posttest examples measure. Additionally, the two groups implementing guided interactive read-alouds and think-alouds performed better than the independent reading group on multiple-choice comprehension measures at posttest and sustained those gains 2 weeks later on delayed posttests. Findings maintain the incremental nature of vocabulary acquisition and development research and emphasize the roles of listening and speaking as critical features for integrating vocabulary into long

  17. Older Cancer Patients’ User Experiences With Web-Based Health Information Tools : A Think Aloud Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolle, S.; Romijn, G.; Smets, E.M.A.; Loos, E.F.; Kunneman, M.; van Weert, J.C.M.

    Background: Health information is increasingly presented on the Internet. Several Web design guidelines for older Web users have been proposed; however, these guidelines are often not applied in website development. Furthermore, although we know that older individuals use the Internet to search for

  18. Older Cancer Patients’ User Experience of Online Health Information Tools: A Think Aloud Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolle, Sifra; Romijn, G.A.; Smets, E.M.A.; Loos, E.F.; Kunneman, M.; van Weert, J.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Health information is increasingly presented on the Internet. Several Web design guidelines for older Web users have been proposed; however, these guidelines are often not applied in website development. Furthermore, although we know that older individuals use the Internet to search for

  19. Using the Think-Aloud Technique for Determining Different Reading Strategies Used by Iranian EFL Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhshalinezhad, Ladan; Nikou, Farahnaz Reymani; Bonyadi, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the reading strategies used by advanced and intermediate Persian EFL learners in both English and Persian reading comprehension texts. Based on the aims of the study reading comprehension texts were administered to the learners and their reading strategies in both English and Persian reading comprehension texts were examined…

  20. Teachers' Perspectives on Second Language Task Difficulty: Insights From Think-Alouds and Eye Tracking

    OpenAIRE

    Révész, A.; Gurzynski-Weiss, L.

    2016-01-01

    The majority of empirical studies that have so far investigated task features in order to inform task grading and sequencing decisions have been grounded in hypothesis-testing research. Few studies have attempted to adopt a bottom-up approach in order to explore what task factors might contribute to task difficulty. The aim of this study was to help fill this gap by eliciting teachers’ perspectives on sources of task difficulty. We asked 16 English as a second language (ESL) teachers to judge...

  1. Think-aloud process superior to thought-listing in increasing children's critical processing of advertising

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozendaal, E.; Buijzen, M.A.; Valkenburg, P.M.

    2012-01-01

    This study develops and tests a model of children's critical processing of advertising. Within this model, 2 paths to reduced advertising susceptibility (i.e., attitude toward the advertised brand) were hypothesized: a cognitive path and an affective path. The secondary aim was to compare these

  2. Using Think-Aloud Protocols To Assess Cognitive Levels of Students in College Classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, M. Susie

    The cognitive levels of instruction of professors from the Pennsylvania Governor's School for the Agricultural Sciences (PGSAS) and the cognitive levels of thought among students were studied. The classes of 4 of 16 PGSAS professors were selected for analysis, and researchers recorded the frequency of observable teacher behaviors from each level…

  3. Think-Aloud Process Superior to Thought-Listing in Increasing Children's Critical Processing of Advertising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Esther; Buijzen, Moniek; Valkenburg, Patti M.

    2012-01-01

    This study develops and tests a model of children's critical processing of advertising. Within this model, 2 paths to reduced advertising susceptibility (i.e., attitude toward the advertised brand) were hypothesized: a cognitive path and an affective path. The secondary aim was to compare these paths for different thought verbalization processes:…

  4. Testing the usability of a personalized system: comparing the use of interviews, questionnaires and thinking -aloud

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Velsen, Lex Stefan; van der Geest, Thea; Klaassen, R.F.

    2007-01-01

    Personalized systems present each user with tailored content or output. Testing the usability of such a system must take some specific usability issues and the suitability of the personalized output into account. In this study, we evaluated a personalized search engine to compare the use of

  5. Responding to personalised social norms feedback from a web-based alcohol reduction intervention for students: Analysis of think-aloud verbal protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marley, S; Bekker, H L; Bewick, B M

    2016-09-01

    Web-based interventions enable organisations to deliver personalised individually tailored brief feedback to individuals without the need of a third party. Web-based interventions are effective in reducing alcohol consumption among university students. There is a paucity of evidence to indicate those who access web-based personalised feedback interventions respond in a way consistent with hypothesised active ingredients. This research uses the think-aloud technique to explore how students respond to instant web-based personalised normative feedback. Between-subjects experimental design employing qualitative methods. Twenty-one UK university students generated think-aloud transcripts while completing a web-based intervention (Unitcheck). This was followed by a semi-structured interview. One coding frame was developed to classify all utterances. Narrative synthesis revealed five meta-themes: active thinking about alcohol use; comparisons with others; beliefs and knowledge about alcohol consumption; inter-relationship between personal codes and context; and engagement with Unitcheck. Students willingly engaged with the online assessment and personalised feedback. Students consciously engaged with the intervention and this engagement prompted students to actively consider their own behaviour, knowledge, perceptions, and to reflect on future behaviour. The ability of web-based personalised feedback interventions to effect change in individual's behaviours is likely related to their ability to encourage cognitive engagement and active processing of the information provided.

  6. Older Cancer Patients' User Experiences With Web-Based Health Information Tools: A Think-Aloud Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolle, Sifra; Romijn, Geke; Smets, Ellen M. A.; Loos, Eugene F.; Kunneman, Marleen; van Weert, Julia C. M.

    2016-01-01

    Health information is increasingly presented on the Internet. Several Web design guidelines for older Web users have been proposed; however, these guidelines are often not applied in website development. Furthermore, although we know that older individuals use the Internet to search for health

  7. The use of think-aloud protocols to identify a decision-making process of community pharmacists aimed at improving CMS Star Ratings scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, David L; Smith, Michael J; Draugalis, JoLaine R; Tolma, Eleni L; Keast, Shellie L; Wilson, Justin B

    2018-03-01

    The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) created the Star Rating system based on multiple measures that indicate the overall quality of health plans. Community pharmacists can impact certain Star Ratings measure scores through medication adherence and patient safety interventions. To explore methods, needs, and workflow issues of community pharmacists to improve CMS Star Ratings measures. Think-aloud protocols (TAPs) were conducted with active community retail pharmacists in Oklahoma. Each TAP was audio recorded and transcribed to documents for analysis. Analysts agreed on common themes, illuminated differences in findings, and saturation of the data gathered. Methods, needs, and workflow themes of community pharmacists associated with improving Star Ratings measures were compiled and organized to exhibit a decision-making process. Five TAPs were performed among three independent pharmacy owners, one multi-store owner, and one chain-store administrator. A thematically common 4-step process to monitor and improve CMS Star Ratings scores among participants was identified. To improve Star Ratings measures, pharmacists: 1) used technology to access scores, 2) analyzed data to strategically set goals, 3) assessed individual patient information for comprehensive assessment, and 4) decided on interventions to best impact Star Ratings scores. Participants also shared common needs, workflow issues, and benefits associated with methods used in improving Star Ratings. TAPs were useful in exploring processes of pharmacists who improve CMS Star Ratings scores. Pharmacists demonstrated and verbalized their methods, workflow issues, needs, and benefits related to performing the task. The themes and decision-making process identified to improving CMS Star Ratings scores will assist in the development of training and education programs for pharmacists in the community setting. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. THINKING ALOUD, TALKING, AND LEAThinking aloud, talking, and learning to read: esl reading comprehension training in small cooperative groups Thinking aloud, talking, and learning to read: esl reading comprehension training in small cooperative groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yael Bejanaro

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Training students to become independent skillful readers is a major concern of the EFL reading teacher. How can we best train students in selecting and applying reading strategies so that they become more efficient readers? Can we ensure that an increase in students’ awareness of the need to use strategies will help them become more skillful readers? These questions served as a trigger for this study. The aim of this study was to investigate whether verbal articulation of reading behavior in a small group will improve foreign language comprehension. It is our contention that using verbalization in small groups will raise metacognitive awareness which will in turn enhance effective use of skills and strategies and result in improvement in reading comprehension. We assume that the special features that characterize small group interactions can provide an appropriate setting for raising metacognitive awareness. Training students to become independent skillful readers is a major concern of the EFL reading teacher. How can we best train students in selecting and applying reading strategies so that they become more efficient readers? Can we ensure that an increase in students’ awareness of the need to use strategies will help them become more skillful readers? These questions served as a trigger for this study. The aim of this study was to investigate whether verbal articulation of reading behavior in a small group will improve foreign language comprehension. It is our contention that using verbalization in small groups will raise metacognitive awareness which will in turn enhance effective use of skills and strategies and result in improvement in reading comprehension. We assume that the special features that characterize small group interactions can provide an appropriate setting for raising metacognitive awareness.

  9. Think-aloud process superior to thought-listing in increasing children’s critical processing of advertising

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozendaal, E.; Buijzen, M.; Valkenburg, P.M.

    2012-01-01

    This study develops and tests a model of children's critical processing of advertising. Within this model, 2 paths to reduced advertising susceptibility (i.e., attitude toward the advertised brand) were hypothesized: a cognitive path and an affective path. The secondary aim was to compare these

  10. Toward a New Process-Based Indicator for Measuring Writing Fluency: Evidence from L2 Writers' Think-Aloud Protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel Latif, Muhammad M.

    2009-01-01

    This article reports on a study aimed at testing the hypothesis that, because of strategic and temporal variables, composing rate and text quantity may not be valid measures of writing fluency. A second objective was to validate the mean length of writers' translating episodes as a process-based indicator that mirrors their fluent written…

  11. Using cognitive pre-testing methods in the development of a new evidenced-based pressure ulcer risk assessment instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Coleman

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Variation in development methods of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments has led to inconsistent inclusion of risk factors and concerns about content validity. A new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary Or Secondary Evaluation Tool - PURPOSE-T was developed as part of a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR funded Pressure Ulcer Research Programme (PURPOSE: RP-PG-0407-10056. This paper reports the pre-test phase to assess and improve PURPOSE-T acceptability, usability and confirm content validity. Methods A descriptive study incorporating cognitive pre-testing methods and integration of service user views was undertaken over 3 cycles comprising PURPOSE-T training, a focus group and one-to-one think-aloud interviews. Clinical nurses from 2 acute and 2 community NHS Trusts, were grouped according to job role. Focus group participants used 3 vignettes to complete PURPOSE-T assessments and then participated in the focus group. Think-aloud participants were interviewed during their completion of PURPOSE-T. After each pre-test cycle analysis was undertaken and adjustment/improvements made to PURPOSE-T in an iterative process. This incorporated the use of descriptive statistics for data completeness and decision rule compliance and directed content analysis for interview and focus group data. Data were collected April 2012-June 2012. Results Thirty-four nurses participated in 3 pre-test cycles. Data from 3 focus groups, 12 think-aloud interviews incorporating 101 PURPOSE-T assessments led to changes to improve instrument content and design, flow and format, decision support and item-specific wording. Acceptability and usability were demonstrated by improved data completion and appropriate risk pathway allocation. The pre-test also confirmed content validity with clinical nurses. Conclusions The pre-test was an important step in the development of the preliminary PURPOSE-T and the

  12. Cognitive Evaluation of a Physician Data Query Tool for a National ICU Registry: Comparing Two Think Aloud Variants and Their Application in Redesign

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peute, Linda W.; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; Jaspers, Monique W. M.

    2010-01-01

    Applying usability methods in formative evaluations of interactive healthcare information systems design is recognized as of extreme importance to the final success of these systems. However, it seems that the merits of specific methodological approaches for conducting these studies have received

  13. The Effect of Three Kinds of Reading Strategies on EFL Learners’ Reading Comprehension and Gender Difference Using Think-aloud Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Fathi Karizak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Reading comprehension strategy instruction is a powerful tool in teaching context. The present study examines the effect of teaching three kinds of reading strategies on L2 learners’ reading comprehension ability as well as identifying the gender role in this intervention. This quasi experimental study was carried out on 100 Iranian EFL students who were chosen on the basis of a convenient sampling procedure. These participants were divided into two groups of experimental and control.  50 students (experimental group were taught to use three reading comprehension strategies while reading English texts over 16 sessions, whereas the other 50 students (control group were taught reading comprehension traditionally. The results of the study revealed significant effect of reading strategies application on L2 learners’ reading comprehension ability. It also showed that not only male learners employ reading strategies more than their female counterparts, but also male learners had higher reading comprehension performance in comparison to their female counterparts. Thus, it seems that training of reading strategy raised students' awareness towards these strategies and could encourage some learners to use them; which in turn could improve the students' reading comprehension skill.

  14. Thinking about Digestive System in Early Childhood: A Comparative Study about Biological Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    AHI, Berat

    2017-01-01

    The current study aims to explore how children explain the concepts of biology and how biological knowledge develops across ages by focusing on the structure and functions of the digestive system. The study was conducted with 60 children. The data were collected through the interviews conducted within a think-aloud protocol. The interview data…

  15. Think Aloud! Increase Your Teaching Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorl, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    Preschool and kindergarten are transition years in the U.S. educational system, and teaching four-, five- and six-year-olds means living on the margins of one educational community or another. But many preschool and kindergarten teachers like it that way. These teachers get to take ideas from the primary grades and combine them with the…

  16. The Connoisseurship of Conducting: A Qualitative Study of Exemplary Wind Band Conductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Nancy; Henry, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to gain an in-depth perspective through examining how the conducting pedagogy of three selected exemplary high school and college instrumental music conductors function within the context of an actual rehearsal. A typical rehearsal was video recorded, followed by a "think-aloud" session in which the conductor viewed the…

  17. GoPro as an Ethnographic Tool: A Wayfinding Study in an Academic Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsley, Kirsten M.; Schoonover, Dan; Spitler, Jasmine

    2016-01-01

    In this study, researchers sought to capture students' authentic experience of finding books in the main library using a GoPro camera and the think-aloud protocol. The GoPro provided a first-person perspective and was an effective ethnographic tool for observing a student's individual experience, while also demonstrating what tools they use to…

  18. Heuristics and biases in cardiovascular disease prevention: How can we improve communication about risk, benefits and harms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; McKinn, Shannon; Lau, Annie; Jansen, Jesse; Doust, Jenny; Trevena, Lyndal; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2018-05-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend medication based on the probability of a heart attack/stroke in the next 5-10 years. However, heuristics and biases make risk communication challenging for doctors. This study explored how patients interpret personalised CVD risk results presented in varying formats and timeframes. GPs recruited 25 patients with CVD risk factors and varying medication history. Participants were asked to 'think aloud' while using two CVD risk calculators that present probabilistic risk in different ways, within a semi-structured interview. Transcribed audio-recordings were coded using Framework Analysis. Key themes were: 1) numbers lack meaning without a reference point; 2) risk results need to be both credible and novel; 3) selective attention to intervention effects. Risk categories (low/moderate/high) provided meaningful context, but short-term risk results were not credible if they didn't match expectations. Colour-coded icon arrays showing the effect of age and interventions were seen as novel and motivating. Those on medication focused on benefits, while others focused on harms. CVD risk formats need to be tailored to patient expectations and experiences in order to counteract heuristics and biases. Doctors need access to multiple CVD risk formats to communicate effectively about CVD prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. ‘The ICECAP-SCM tells you more about what I’m going through’: A think-aloud study measuring quality of life among patients receiving supportive and palliative care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Cara; Kinghorn, Philip; Orlando, Rosanna; Armour, Kathy; Perry, Rachel; Jones, Louise; Coast, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    Background: The ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure is a self-complete questionnaire developed to aid economic evaluation of supportive care interventions. Aim: To determine the feasibility of completing ICECAP–Supportive Care Measure alongside EQ-5D-5L and ICECAP-A (generic measures used in economic evaluation) among patients receiving hospice care, close persons and healthcare professionals. Design: Participants were asked to ‘think aloud’ while completing ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure and two other generic measures used in economic evaluation, EQ-5D-5L and ICECAP-A, and then participate in a semi-structured interview. From verbatim transcripts, five raters identified the frequency of errors in comprehension, retrieval, judgement and response. Qualitative data were analysed using constant comparison. Setting/participants: Eligible patients were identified from one UK hospice by a research nurse. Close persons and healthcare professionals were identified by the patient. In all, 72 semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients (n = 33), close persons (n = 22) and healthcare professionals (n = 17). Results: Patients and close persons reported that the ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure was most appropriate for measuring their quality of life. It appeared more meaningful, easier to complete and had fewest errors (3.9% among patients, 4.5% among close persons) compared to EQ-5D-5L (9.7% among patients, 5.5% among close persons). Healthcare professionals acknowledged the value of the ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure but had fewer errors in completing the EQ-5D-5L (3.5% versus 6.7%). They found it easier to complete because it focuses on observable health states. Conclusions: The ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure is feasible to use and perceived as appropriate for evaluating palliative care interventions. Healthcare professionals with limited knowledge of the patient who act as proxy completers may find the measure difficult to complete. PMID:26819326

  20. What Happened to Remote Usability Testing? An Empirical Study of Three Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stage, Jan; Andreasen, M. S.; Nielsen, H. V.

    2007-01-01

    The idea of conducting usability tests remotely emerged ten years ago. Since then, it has been studied empirically, and some software organizations employ remote methods. Yet there are still few comparisons involving more than one remote method. This paper presents results from a systematic...... empirical comparison of three methods for remote usability testing and a conventional laboratorybased think-aloud method. The three remote methods are a remote synchronous condition, where testing is conducted in real time but the test monitor is separated spatially from the test subjects, and two remote...

  1. Details of development of the resource for adults with asthma in the RAISIN (randomized trial of an asthma internet self-management intervention) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Deborah; Mair, Frances S; Chaudhuri, Rekha; McGee-Lennon, Marilyn; Thomas, Mike; Thomson, Neil C; Yardley, Lucy; Wyke, Sally

    2015-07-28

    Around 300 million people worldwide have asthma and prevalence is increasing. Self-management can be effective in improving a range of outcomes and is cost effective, but is underutilised as a treatment strategy. Supporting optimum self-management using digital technology shows promise, but how best to do this is not clear. We aimed to develop an evidence based, theory informed, online resource to support self-management in adults with asthma, called 'Living well with Asthma', as part of the RAISIN (Randomized Trial of an Asthma Internet Self-Management Intervention) study. We developed Living well with Asthma in two phases. Phase 1: A low fidelity prototype (paper-based) version of the website was developed iteratively through input from a multidisciplinary expert panel, empirical evidence from the literature, and potential end users via focus groups (adults with asthma and practice nurses). Implementation and behaviour change theories informed this process. Phase 2: The paper-based designs were converted to a website through an iterative user centred process. Adults with asthma (n = 10) took part in think aloud studies, discussing the paper based version, then the web-based version. Participants considered contents, layout, and navigation. Development was agile using feedback from the think aloud sessions immediately to inform design and subsequent think aloud sessions. Think aloud transcripts were also thematically analysed, further informing resource development. The website asked users to aim to be symptom free. Key behaviours targeted to achieve this include: optimising medication use (including inhaler technique); attending primary care asthma reviews; using asthma action plans; increasing physical activity levels; and stopping smoking. The website had 11 sections, plus email reminders, which promoted these behaviours. Feedback on the contents of the resource was mainly positive with most changes focussing on clarification of language, order of pages and

  2. WORD PROCESSING AND SECOND LANGUAGE WRITING: A LONGITUDINAL CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alister Cumming

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine whether word processing might change a second language (L2 leamer's writing processes and improve the quality of his essays over a relatively long period of time. We worked from the assumption that research comparing word-processing to pen and paper composing tends to show positive results when studies include lengthy terms of data collection and when appropriate instruction and training are provided. We compared the processes and products of L2 composing displayed by a 29-year-old, male Mandarin leamer of English with intermediate proficiency in English while he wrote, over 8 months, 14 compositions grouped into 7 comparable pairs of topics altemating between uses of a lap-top computer and of pen and paper. Al1 keystrokes were recorded electronically in the computer environrnent; visual records of al1 text changes were made for the pen-and paper writing. Think-aloud protocols were recorded in al1 sessions. Analyses indicate advantages for the word-processing medium over the pen-and-paper medium in terms ofi a greater frequency of revisions made at the discourse level and at the syntactical level; higher scores for content on analytic ratings of the completed compositions; and more extensive evaluation ofwritten texts in think-aloud verbal reports.

  3. A Mixed-Methods Study on the Impact of Socratic Seminars on Eighth Grade Students' Comprehension of Science Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roncke, Nancy

    This formative, convergent-mixed methods research study investigated the impact of Socratic Seminars on eighth grade science students' independent comprehension of science texts. The study also highlighted how eighth grade students of varying reading abilities interacted with and comprehended science texts differently during and after the use of Socratic Seminars. In order to document any changes in the students' overall comprehension of science texts, this study compared the experimental and control groups' pre- and post-test performances on the Content Area Reading Assessment (Leslie & Caldwell, 2014) and self-perception surveys on students' scientific reading engagement. Student think-alouds and interviews also captured the students' evolving understandings of the science texts. At the conclusion of this sixteen-week study, the achievement gap between the experimental and control group was closed in five of the seven categories on the Content Area Reading Assessment, including supporting an inference with textual evidence, determining central ideas, explaining why or how, determining word meaning, and summarizing a science text. Students' self-perception surveys were more positive regarding reading science texts after the Socratic Seminars. Finally, the student think-alouds revealed that some students moved from a literal interpretation of the science texts to inquiries that questioned the text and world events.

  4. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  5. Regulatory cost-risk study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs. (JDB)

  6. Regulatory cost-risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs

  7. Empirical studies of design software: Implications for software engineering environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasner, Herb

    1988-01-01

    The empirical studies team of MCC's Design Process Group conducted three studies in 1986-87 in order to gather data on professionals designing software systems in a range of situations. The first study (the Lift Experiment) used thinking aloud protocols in a controlled laboratory setting to study the cognitive processes of individual designers. The second study (the Object Server Project) involved the observation, videotaping, and data collection of a design team of a medium-sized development project over several months in order to study team dynamics. The third study (the Field Study) involved interviews with the personnel from 19 large development projects in the MCC shareholders in order to study how the process of design is affected by organizationl and project behavior. The focus of this report will be on key observations of design process (at several levels) and their implications for the design of environments.

  8. Diagnosis and management of people with venous thromboembolism and advanced cancer: how do doctors decide? A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Miriam J; Sheard, Laura; Maraveyas, Anthony; Noble, Simon; Prout, Hayley; Watt, Ian; Dowding, Dawn

    2012-07-20

    The treatment of cancer associated thrombosis (CAT) is well established, with level 1A evidence to support the recommendation of a low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) by daily injection for 3-6 months. However, registry data suggest compliance to clinical guidelines is poor. Clinicians face particular challenges in treating CAT in advanced cancer patients due to shorter life expectancy, increased bleeding risk and concerns that self injection may be too burdensome. For these reasons decision making around the diagnosis and management of CAT in people with advanced cancer, can be complex, and should focus on its likely net benefit for the patient. We explored factors that influence doctors' decision making in this situation and sought to gain an understanding of the barriers and facilitators to the application of best practice. Think aloud exercises using standardised case scenarios, and individual in depth interviews were conducted. All were transcribed. The think aloud exercises were analysed using Protocol Analysis and the interviews using Framework Analysis. 46 participants took part in the think aloud exercises and 45 participants were interviewed in depth. Each group included oncologists, palliative physicians and general practitioners and included both senior doctors and those in training. Two Strategic Health Authority regions, one in the north of England and one in Wales. The following key issues arose from the data synthesis: the importance of patient prognosis; the concept of "appropriateness"; "benefits and burdens" of diagnosis and treatment; LMWH or warfarin for treatment and sources of information which changed practice. Although interlinked, they do describe distinct aspects of the factors that influence doctors in their decisions in this area. The above factors are issues doctors take into account when deciding whether to send a patient to hospital for investigation or to anticoagulate a patient with confirmed or suspected VTE. Many factors

  9. Diagnosis and management of people with venous thromboembolism and advanced cancer: how do doctors decide? a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Miriam J

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The treatment of cancer associated thrombosis (CAT is well established, with level 1A evidence to support the recommendation of a low molecular weight heparin (LMWH by daily injection for 3–6 months. However, registry data suggest compliance to clinical guidelines is poor. Clinicians face particular challenges in treating CAT in advanced cancer patients due to shorter life expectancy, increased bleeding risk and concerns that self injection may be too burdensome. For these reasons decision making around the diagnosis and management of CAT in people with advanced cancer, can be complex, and should focus on its likely net benefit for the patient. We explored factors that influence doctors’ decision making in this situation and sought to gain an understanding of the barriers and facilitators to the application of best practice. Methods Think aloud exercises using standardised case scenarios, and individual in depth interviews were conducted. All were transcribed. The think aloud exercises were analysed using Protocol Analysis and the interviews using Framework Analysis. Participants: 46 participants took part in the think aloud exercises and 45 participants were interviewed in depth. Each group included oncologists, palliative physicians and general practitioners and included both senior doctors and those in training. Setting: Two Strategic Health Authority regions, one in the north of England and one in Wales. Results The following key issues arose from the data synthesis: the importance of patient prognosis; the concept of “appropriateness”; “benefits and burdens” of diagnosis and treatment; LMWH or warfarin for treatment and sources of information which changed practice. Although interlinked, they do describe distinct aspects of the factors that influence doctors in their decisions in this area. Conclusions The above factors are issues doctors take into account when deciding whether to send a patient to hospital

  10. The Think-Aloud Approach: A Promising Tool for Online Reading Comprehension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carioli, Stefania; Peru, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Despite its unquestionable interest from a theoretical and practical point of view, so far there has been little research on online reading and there is a lack of attention paid to this topic in most European educational institutions. In particular, primary and secondary school teachers are not adequately trained on how and when to intervene to…

  11. Usability testing of e-learning: an approach incorporating co-discovery and think-aloud

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Adebesin, TF

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Computer applications developed to support learning in the cognitive domains are quite different from commercial transaction processing applications. The unique nature of such applications calls for different methods for evaluating their usability...

  12. Factors influencing compliance to tactical driver advice: an assessment using a think-aloud protocol

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risto, Malte; Martens, Marieke Hendrikje

    2013-01-01

    Connected Cruise Control (CCC) is an in-car driver support systems that aims to improve throughput in dense motorway traffic by advising drivers how to drive. The system is currently under development within a HTAS project. It will integrate lane advice, headway advice and speed advice. CCC will not

  13. Cultural cognition in the thinking-aloud method for usability evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Torkil; Hertzum, Morten; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2008-01-01

    ) and Easterners (people from China and the countries heavily influenced by its culture). We illustrate the impact of cultural cognition on four central elements of TA: (1) instructions and tasks, (2) the user's verbalizations, (3) the evaluator's reading of the user, and (4) the overall relationship between user...

  14. Teaching Problem Solving without Modeling through "Thinking Aloud Pair Problem Solving."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestel, Beverly C.

    1993-01-01

    Reviews research relevant to the problem of unsatisfactory student problem-solving abilities and suggests a teaching strategy that addresses the issue. Author explains how she uses teaching aloud problem solving (TAPS) in college chemistry and presents evaluation data. Among the findings are that the TAPS class got fewer problems completely right,…

  15. Using Digital Think-Alouds to Build Comprehension of Online Informational Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Amber

    2016-01-01

    The ability to navigate and comprehend online informational text is essential for 21st century learners. It requires orchestrating a mix of old and new reading strategies--and it's easy for teachers and students to feel overwhelmed! This column describes a way of combining student screencasting with Reciprocal Teaching to help students--and…

  16. German risk study of PWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1983-01-01

    In this paper, first the status of German Risk Study is presented briefly. Specific reference is made to the investigations in Phase B of the study and related programs. Significant elements involved in the risk assessment for NPPs, mainly in the field of system and structural reliability analyses are mentioned. In particular, important outcomes and limiting facts in the process of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to evaluate the safety standard and above all the influence of individual components or subsystems on core melt frequency are discussed. (orig.)

  17. The impact of risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, B.

    The report is a summary of the reports of various subprojects on nuclear safety. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role and usefulness of major risk studies in societal opinion forming and decision making processes. The primary research material consisted in seven major risk studies, three of which were concerned with radioactive waste handling, two with reactor safety and two with comparative studies of various sources of energy. Special attention was given to the following four aspects: a) the way in which the studies were interpreted b)the extent to which these studies have clarified the risks they analyse c) the extent to which these studies have narrowed the scientific debate d) the degree to which these studies have actually influenced safety measures and regulatory policy. The picture which emerges is one of success in relation to the effects on the nuclear establishment and largely a failure as attempts at settling disputes and informing the public. (G.B.)

  18. The Effect of Diagrams on Online Reading Processes and Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrudden, Matthew T.; Magliano, Joseph P.; Schraw, Gregory

    2011-01-01

    This work examined how adjunct displays influence college readers' moment-by-moment processing of text and the products of reading, using reading time (Experiments 1 & 2), and think-aloud methodologies (Experiment 3). Participants did or did not study a diagram before reading a text. Overall, the reading time data, think-aloud data, and recall…

  19. An Eye-tracking Study of Notational, Informational, and Emotional Aspects of Learning Analytics Representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vatrapu, Ravi; Reimann, Peter; Bull, Susan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an eye-tracking study of notational, informational, and emotional aspects of nine different notational systems (Skill Meters, Smilies, Traffic Lights, Topic Boxes, Collective Histograms, Word Clouds, Textual Descriptors, Table, and Matrix) and three different information states...... (Weak, Average, & Strong) used to represent student's learning. Findings from the eye-tracking study show that higher emotional activation was observed for the metaphorical notations of traffic lights and smilies and collective representations. Mean view time was higher for representations...... of the "average" informational learning state. Qualitative data analysis of the think-aloud comments and post-study interview show that student participants reflected on the meaning-making opportunities and action-taking possibilities afforded by the representations. Implications for the design and evaluation...

  20. Informal physics learning from video games: a case study using gameplay videos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croxton, DeVaughn; Kortemeyer, Gerd

    2018-01-01

    Researching informal gameplay can be challenging, since as soon as a formal study design is imposed, it becomes neither casual nor self-motivated. As a case study of a non-invasive design, we analyze publicly posted gameplay videos to assess the effectiveness of a physics educational video game on special relativity. These videos offer unique insights into informal learning through gaming, as players do not only describe the gameplay mechanics, but also explore physics concepts in a think-aloud fashion while they ponder the experience and effects. We find that while this methodology has substantial limitations, it is complementary when it comes to assessing motivations and attitudes, as well as to gathering data on conceptual hurdles.

  1. Clinical reasoning and its application to nursing: concepts and research studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banning, Maggi

    2008-05-01

    Clinical reasoning may be defined as "the process of applying knowledge and expertise to a clinical situation to develop a solution" [Carr, S., 2004. A framework for understanding clinical reasoning in community nursing. J. Clin. Nursing 13 (7), 850-857]. Several forms of reasoning exist each has its own merits and uses. Reasoning involves the processes of cognition or thinking and metacognition. In nursing, clinical reasoning skills are an expected component of expert and competent practise. Nurse research studies have identified concepts, processes and thinking strategies that might underpin the clinical reasoning used by pre-registration nurses and experienced nurses. Much of the available research on reasoning is based on the use of the think aloud approach. Although this is a useful method, it is dependent on ability to describe and verbalise the reasoning process. More nursing research is needed to explore the clinical reasoning process. Investment in teaching and learning methods is needed to enhance clinical reasoning skills in nurses.

  2. How do community pharmacists make decisions? Results of an exploratory qualitative study in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Paul A M; Whyte, Brenna; Austin, Zubin

    2016-03-01

    As the complexity of pharmacy practice increases, pharmacists are required to make more decisions under ambiguous or information-deficient conditions. There is scant literature examining how pharmacists make decisions and what factors or values influence their choices. The objective of this exploratory research was to characterize decision-making patterns in the clinical setting of community pharmacists in Ontario. The think-aloud decision-making method was used for this study. Community pharmacists with 3 or more years' experience were presented with 2 clinical case studies dealing with challenging situations and were asked to verbally reason through their decision-making process while being probed by an interviewer for clarification, justification and further explication. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed using a protocol analysis method. A total of 12 pharmacists participated in this study. Participants experienced cognitive dissonance in attempting to reconcile their desire for a clear and confrontation-free conclusion to the case discussion and the reality of the challenge presented within each case. Strategies for resolving this cognitive dissonance included strong emphasis on the educational (rather than decision-making) role of the pharmacist, the value of strong interpersonal relationships as a way to avoid conflict and achieve desired outcomes, the desire to seek external advice or defer to others' authority to avoid making a decision and the use of strict interpretations of rules to avoid ambiguity and contextual interpretation. This research was neither representative nor generalizable but was indicative of patterns of decisional avoidance and fear of assuming responsibility for outcomes that warrant further investigation. The think-aloud method functioned effectively in this context and provided insights into pharmacists' decision-making patterns in the clinical setting. Can Pharm J (Ott) 2016;149:90-98.

  3. Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-05

    It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  4. What is the purpose of risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past few years, more or less comprehensive risk analyses have been carried out for numerous nuclear power plants, especially in the USA. The first risk studies conducted, especially the Rasmussen Study and the 'German Risk Study,' investigated sequences of accidents up to their environmental impacts. Risk studies today are focused mostly on assessments of technical safety, which is why they are extended only as far as the determination of core meltdown frequencies or radionuclide releases. Studies of this type are also called probabilistic safety analyses. (orig.) [de

  5. Study of International Standards of Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dykan Volodymyr L.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of existing international standards of risk management, an important factor of improvement of risk management in domestic corporations and enterprises and development of recommendations on application of international standards in Ukraine, in particular, within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management. The conducted study shows that approaches on organisation of the process of risk management, used in standards of risk management, are of general character and differ with the degree of detailing. Their undoubted value in development of risk management in Ukraine is identification of a general direction of building corporate systems of risk management in practice. The said approaches at the national and corporate levels of standardisation in Ukraine within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management would allow improvement of risk management in corporations and enterprises. The prospect of further studies of domestic specialists in the field of risk management is development of the domestic standard of risk management with consideration of modern domestic specific features of development of risk management in Ukraine and leading foreign experience.

  6. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  7. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  8. Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

    2001-12-01

    The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.

  9. The implications of the German Risk Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.

    1980-01-01

    The methods and results of the German Risk Study published in 1979 are summarized and its implications for reactor safety are discussed. It has led to suggestions that risk analysis should be more widely used for nuclear and other technological systems. It has also identified the need for specific system modifications and confirmed trends in safety research. (author)

  10. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  11. Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

  12. Thinking Aloud While Solving a Stock-Flow Task: Surfacing the Correlation Heuristic and Other Reasoning Patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korzilius, H.P.L.M.; Raaijmakers, S.F.J.M.; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.; Vennix, J.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    In the literature, it is assumed that individuals, while performing stock-flow tasks, often use a correlation heuristic, a form of pattern matching in which they think that the behavior of the stock resembles the (net) flow. To investigate this assumption and to increase our insight in the actual

  13. Assessing metacognitive activities: the in-depth comparison of a task-specific questionnaire with think-aloud protocols

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellings, G.L.M.; van Hout-Wolters, B.H.A.M.; Veenman, M.V.J.; Meijer, J.

    2013-01-01

    Teaching and assessing metacognitive activities are important educational objectives, and teachers are calling for efficient instruments. The advantages of questionnaires in measuring metacognitive activities are obvious, but serious validity issues appear. For example, correlations of questionnaire

  14. Cross cultural usability testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Torkil; Goyal, Shivam

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we present the results of a pilot study in Denmark of cross cultural effects on Think Aloud usability testing. We provide an overview of previous research on cross cultural usability evaluation with a special focus on the relationship between the evaluator and the test user....... This relation was studied in an experiment with usability testing of a localized clipart application in which eight participants from Denmark and India formed pairs of evaluator-test user. The test users were asked to think aloud and the evaluators' role were to facilitate the test users thinking aloud...... and hereby identify usability problems with the clipart application. Data on the evaluators' and test users' behaviour were recorded and analyzed by coding and summarizing statistics on these behavioural events. The results show that Think Aloud Usability Test of a localized application is most effectively...

  15. Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, J.R.

    1977-01-01

    Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events: consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed

  16. Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, J.R.

    1977-01-01

    Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events; consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed. (Auth.)

  17. RISK CONCEPT AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamze CAN

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Basic aim of an epidemiological study is to quantify the association between the exposure and the outcome of interest. To achieve this, the incidence of disease in a group of individuals exposed to the putative risk factors must be compared with the incidence in a group of persons not exposed. This comparison can be summarized by calculating either the ratio of the measures of disease occurrence for the two groups, which indicates the likelihood of developing the disease in the exposed individuals relative to those unexposed, or the difference between the two, which provides information about the absolute effect of the exposure in those exposed compared with those unexposed. Some terms about relative risk were explained and examine with samples in this article. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2006; 5(5.000: 374-381

  18. German risk study, phase (DRS-B)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, W.

    1992-01-01

    The first risk investigations were primarily intended to estimate the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and to compare it with other natural risk and civilization risks. The American reactor safety study WASH 1400 and the German risk study phase A (DRS-A) gave a detailed analyses of the offsite consequences of accidents, especially the magnitude and frequency of health damage for the population. Risk investigations today are primarily used to examine the design of safety systems and to further develop the entire safety concept. Safety investigations have shown that nuclear power plants still possess safety reserves if safety systems do not operate as planned. These safety reserves can be exploited in the sense of a further development of safety by plant internal emergency measures. One purpose of risk analyses is to identify such measures and to evaluate their feasibility and effectiveness. The most important goals of the investigations in DRS-B were: Identification of vulnerabilities and possible safety improvements; determination of safety reserves during accident sequences exceeding the design limits; evaluation of plant internal emergency measures. Thus, goals in phase B compared with phase A have changed from investigations of the magnitude of damage to detailed analysis of the plant systems response under accident conditions. The magnitude of possible fission product releases is also determined in phase B. However, no new accident consequence calculations are performed. Figs and tabs

  19. Affordances in Mobile Augmented Reality Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Gjøsæter, Tor

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the affordances of augmented reality content in a mobile augmented reality application. A user study was conducted by performing a multi-camera video recording of seven think aloud sessions. The think aloud sessions consisted of individual users performing tasks, exploring and experiencing a mobile augmented reality (MAR) application we developed for the iOS platform named ARad. We discuss the instrumental affordances we observed when users interacted with augmented realit...

  20. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  1. Social amplification of risk: An empirical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, W.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, R.; Kasperson, J.; Renn, O.; Emani, S.

    1990-09-01

    The social amplification of risk is a theoretical framework that addresses an important deficiency of formal risk assessment methods and procedures. Typically assessments of risk from technological mishaps have been based upon the expected number of people who could be killed or injured or the amount of property that might be damaged. The diverse and consequential impacts that followed in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island accident make it clear that risk assessments that exclude the role of public perceptions of risk will greatly underestimate the potential costs of certain types of hazards. The accident at Three Mile Island produced no direct fatalities and few, if any, expected deaths due to cancer, yet few other accidents in history have had such costly societal impacts. The experience of amplified impacts argues for the development of a broadened theoretical and methodological perspective capable of integrating technical assessment of risk with public perceptions. This report presents the results to date in an ongoing research effort to better understand the complex processes by which adverse events produce impacts. In particular this research attempts to construct a framework that can account for those events that have produced, or are capable of producing, greater societal impacts than would be forecast by traditional risk assessment methods. This study demonstrates that the social amplification of risk involves interactions between sophisticated technological hazards, public and private institutions, and subtle individual and public perceptions and behaviors. These factors, and the variables underlying the intricate processes of social amplification that occur in modern society, are not fully defined and clarified in this report. 19 refs., 9 figs., 10 tabs

  2. Smoky River coal flood risk mapping study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    The Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) is designed to reduce flood damage by identifying areas susceptible to flooding and by encouraging application of suitable land use planning, zoning, and flood preparedness and proofing. The purpose of this study is to define flood risk and floodway limits along the Smoky River near the former Smoky River Coal (SRC) plant. Alberta Energy has been responsible for the site since the mine and plant closed in 2000. The study describes flooding history, available data, features of the river and valley, calculation of flood levels, and floodway determination, and includes flood risk maps. The HEC-RAS program is used for the calculations. The flood risk area was calculated using the 1:100 year return period flood as the hydrological event. 7 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs., 3 apps.

  3. Coffee and cardiovascular risk; an epidemiological study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.A.A. Bak (Annette)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis comprises several studies on the effect of coffee and caffeine on cardiovascular risk in general, and the effect on serum lipids, blood pressure and selected hemostatic variables in particular. The association between coffee use and cardiovascular morbidity and

  4. Discussion of some issues in risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu Jingyuan; Liu Yuanzhong

    1998-01-01

    The concept of risk, the methods for assessing risk and the acceptability of risk are discussed. The emphasis was laid on the three components for complete description of a risk: scenario, probability and consequence of an event. The disadvantages of the concept and presentation of risk used in some risk analysis were pointed out. The paper emphasized that it is necessary to explicitly consider the multi-dimensionality of risk in the assessment and management of risk. Several important factors influencing the acceptability of risk and the methodology for evaluating the acceptability of risk were also described

  5. The German risk study. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkart, K.

    1980-01-01

    A severe nuclear power plant accident can be followed by a considerable release of radioactive effluents into the atmosphere. Due to atmospheric dispersion, areas of different sizes can be contaminated. The corresponding doses can cause early illnesses, early fatalities, latent effects and genetic effects. They are accompanied by economic effects. Within the consequence model of the German Risk Study, early and late fatalities and genetically significant doses are calculated. The calculations are based on real data or phenomena such as the population around 19, present or future German sites, or 115 real weather sequences, as well as on models such as an atmospheric dispersion model, a dose model, a model of protective actions or a health effects model. Within this lecture, the consequence model applied in the German Risk Study will be discussed in detail and the results will be presented. (orig./RW)

  6. Acceptable risk in reactor safety studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, J.R.; Shinozuka, M.; Shah, H.C.

    1975-01-01

    Acceptable risk is defined in terms of its five basic parameters: the hazard or problem; the probability of occurrence; the consequence; the possible alternative actions; and the value system of the community or the society. The problem of consistency in design at a site and between differing sites is discussed and solutions are suggested. Techniques for consistent deterministic and probabilistic setting limits and design standards are illustrated using data from AEC Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400. The influence of level of consequence is discussed and a general methodology for decision analysis in resource allocation problem is briefly introduced and illustrated. The concept of acceptable risk is put in a quantitative format that can be used by engineers and planners. Bayesian statistical methods are introduced to develop the methodologies

  7. Studying risk factors associated with Human Leptospirosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramachandra Kamath

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Leptospirosis is one of the most under diagnosed and underreported disease in both developed and developing countries including India. It is established that environmental conditions and occupational habit of the individuals put them at risk of acquiring disease, which varies from community to community. Various seroprevalence studies across the world have documented emerging situation of this neglected tropical disease, but limited have probed to identify the risk factors, especially in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify the environmental and occupational risk factors associated with the disease in Udupi District. Materials and Methods: This population-based case-control study was carried out in Udupi, a District in Southern India from April 2012 until August 2012. Udupi is considered to be endemic for Leptospirosis and reported 116 confirmed cases in the year 2011. Seventy of 116 laboratory confirmed cases and 140 sex matched neighborhood healthy controls participated in the study. A predesigned, semi-structured and validated questionnaire was used for data collection through house to house visit and observations were noted about environmental conditions. Univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis (back ward conditional logistic regression was performed by using STATA version 9.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA to identify potential risk factors. Results: Occupational factors such as outdoor activities (matched odds ratio [OR] of 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-13.0, presence of cut or wound at body parts during work (matched OR: 4.88, CI: 1.83-13.02 and environmental factors such as contact with rodents through using the food materials ate by rat (matched OR: 4.29, CI: 1.45-12.73 and contact with soil or water contaminated with urine of rat (matched OR: 4.58, CI: 1.43-14.67 were the risk factors identified to be associated with disease. Conclusion: Leptospirosis is still

  8. Risk of suicide in high risk pregnancy: an exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benute, Gláucia Rosana Guerra; Nomura, Roseli Mieko Yamamoto; Jorge, Vanessa Marques Ferreira; Nonnenmacher, Daniele; Fráguas Junior, Renério; Lucia, Mara Cristina Souza de; Zugaib, Marcelo

    2011-01-01

    To identify the risk of suicidal behavior in high-risk pregnant women at a public hospital in São Paulo. We conducted a semi-structured interview with each of the participants (n = 268) through a previously prepared questionnaire. Risk of suicidal behavior was assessed by the Portuguese version of PRIME-MD. The mean age of patients was 29 years (SD = 0.507) and gestation period was 30 weeks (SD = 0.556). Of the total sample, specific risk of suicide was found in 5% (n = 14). Of these, 85% have a stable relationship (married or cohabitating), the pregnancy was planned in 50% of cases, and 71% have no religion or professional activities. The correlation of risk of suicide with data from marital status, planned birth, age, education, professional practice, risk of prematurity, and religion showed that having a religion is statistically significant (p = 0.012). There were no positive associations for any of the other selected variables when compared with the risk of suicide. By correlating the risk of suicide with other characteristic symptoms of major depression, there was statistical significance in the sample with regard to insomnia or hypersomnia (p = 0.003), fatigue or loss of energy (p = 0.001), decreased or increased appetite (p = 0.005), less interest in daily activities (p = 0.000), depressed mood (p = 0.000), feelings of worthlessness or guilt (p = 0.000), decreased concentration (p = 0.002), and agitation or psychomotor retardation (p = 0.002). We found that religion can be a protective factor against suicidal behavior. Besides providing a social support network needed by women during pregnancy, religion supports belief in life after death and in a loving God, giving purpose to life and self esteem and providing models for coping with crises. The results show the importance of prevention and early diagnosis of suicidal behavior, since suicide is an attempt to move from one sphere to another by force, seeking to solve what seems impossible.

  9. Risk management strategies by Australian farmers: two case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Nam C.; Wegener, Malcolm K.; Russell, Iean W.; Cameron, Donald; Coventry, David; Cooper, Ian M.

    2007-01-01

    Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky farming environments in the world. They have to cope with numerous sources of risk including weather uncertainty, variable market prices, and institutional changes in their business management. This paper reports results from two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that unpredictable weather, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk we...

  10. Study reputational risk in an audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Volkova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of international sanctions and the formation of intense competition among companies in the Russian market and the related need to assess their risk of reputation that directly affect the value of the goodwill of the company is very important. The article presents the main reputational risks Russian enterprises, which need to be analyzed in the course of the audit. The definition of "reputational risk", which is a challenge due to the problems associated with certain norms of economic security. Currently in economics there are no deep research on managing reputational risks of commercial structures. Is a list of the main risks for Russian companies, such as fraud, financial problems, bankruptcy, information leaks, lawsuits, violating the legislation and labor disputes, allegations of money laundering, tax evasion. It is concluded that the occurrence of at least one of reputational risks will inevitably lead to the gradual emergence of the rest. As well as a diagram the relationship reputational risks. Under the present scheme, identified reputational risks that arise in the financial problems of the enterprise. It was determined that the most significant reputational risks are tax evasion, violation of the law and labor disputes, allegations of money laundering and lawsuits. These risks are managed should have a strategic character. The strategic nature of the management can be achieved through the implementation of effective marketing communication policy. The risk management policy should be made a compulsory item - audit of the calculation and analysis of reputational risk. Compiled scheme of action needed to reputational risk.

  11. Man, technology and risk: a study on intuitive risk assessment and attitudes towards nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks.

  12. Risk assessment. Report of a Royal Society study group

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines).

  13. Percutaneous penetration studies for risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sartorelli, Vittorio; Andersen, Helle Raun; Angerer, Jürgen

    2000-01-01

    . In order to predict the systemic risk of dermally absorbed chemicals and to enable agencies to set safety standards, data is needed on the rates of percutaneous penetration of important chemicals. Standardization of in vitro tests and comparison of their results with the in vivo data could produce...... internationally accepted penetration rates and/or absorption percentages very useful for regulatory toxicology. The work of the Percutaneous Penetration Subgroup of EC Dermal Exposure Network has been focussed on the standardization and validation of in vitro experiments, necessary to obtain internationally...... accepted penetration rates for regulatory purposes. The members of the Subgroup analyzed the guidelines on percutaneous penetration in vitro studies presented by various organizations and suggested a standardization of in vitro models for percutaneous penetration taking into account their individual...

  14. Adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information: A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, John; Johnson, Ilona; Popat, Hashmat; Morgan, Maria Z; Gill, Paul

    2018-04-24

    For effective risk communication, clinicians must understand patients' values and beliefs in relation to the risks of treatment. This qualitative study aimed to explore adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information. Five focus groups were carried out with 32 school/college pupils aged 12-18 in Wales, UK. Participants were purposively selected and had all experienced orthodontic treatment. A thematic approach was used for analysis and data collection was completed at the point of data saturation. Four themes emerged from the data; (a) day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment, (b) important orthodontic risk information, (c) engaging with orthodontic risk information and (d) managing the risks of orthodontic treatment. Day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment that were affecting participants "here and now" were of most concern. Information about preventing the risks of treatment was deemed to be important. Participants did not actively seek risk information but engaged passively with information from convenient sources. Perceptions of risk susceptibility influenced participants' management of the risks of orthodontic treatment. This study demonstrates that adolescent patients can understand information about the nature and severity of orthodontic treatment risks. However, adolescent patients can have false perceptions if the risks are unfamiliar, perceived only to have a future impact or if seen as easy to control. Adolescent patients must be provided with timely and easily accessible risk information and with practical solutions to prevent the risks of treatment. The views and experiences gathered in this study can assist clinicians to better understand their young patients' beliefs about treatment risks, facilitate effective risk communication and contribute to improved patient-centred care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Study on the risk-informed regulation of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Chaogui

    2007-01-01

    The risk-informed regulation is a modern type of NPP safety management mode using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. It is necessary to entirely and systematically study the associated regulations, standards and practices in order to promote the developments of risk-informed regulations in China. This paper introduces the risk-informed regulation, gives out the basic principles, method and acceptance risk criteria of risk-informed decision,making, discusses the PSA requirements for risk-informed decision-making and makes some suggestions about the application of risk-informed regulations in Chinese NPP. (authors)

  16. An overview of the fire risk scoping study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues that had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC-sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 9 refs., 3 tabs

  17. Risk Based Corrosion Studies at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.

    2010-01-01

    TYPE I and II (ASTM 285-B) - Experienced stress corrosion cracking (SCC), 2 have been closed; 22 scheduled for closure by 2017, and No active leak sites today. TYPE III (ASTM A516-70 and A537 Class I) - Post-fabrication relief of weld residual stresses, Improved resistance to SCC and brittle fracture, No leakage history, and Receives new waste. The objectives are to utilize statistical methods to reduce conservatism in current chemistry control program; and express nitrite inhibitor limits in terms of pitting risk on waste tank steel. Conclusions are: (1) A statistically designed experimental study has been undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting corrosion; (2) Mixture/amount model supports that pitting depends on the ratio of aggressive to inhibitive anions, as well as the concentration of each species; (3) Secondary aggressive species, Cl - and SO 4 2- , significantly effect the corrosion response; and (4) Results support the reduction of the chemistry control nitrite inhibitor concentrations in the regime of 0.8-1.0 M nitrate.

  18. Antiepileptic drugs and risk of suicide: a nationwide study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, J.B.; Hansen, Peter Riis; Erdal, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Patients with epilepsy or psychiatric diseases have increased risk of suicide, but whether the risk is influenced by antiepileptic drug (AED) treatment is unclear. Studies have suggested that AEDs in general increase the risk of suicidal behaviour shortly after initiation. This study inve...

  19. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  20. A window into learning: case studies of online group communication and collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Jones

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The two case studies presented explore the potential offered by in-depth qualitative analysis of students' online discussion to enhance our understanding of how students learn. Both cases are used to illustrate how the monitoring and moderation of online student group communication can open up a ‘window into learning', providing us with new insights into complex problem-solving and thinking processes. The cases offer examples of students' ‘thinking aloud' while problem-solving, showing how and why they arrived at particular outcomes and the underlying thought processes involved. It is argued that these insights into students' learning processes can in turn offer us the opportunity to adapt our own teaching practice in order to achieve a better pedagogical ‘fit' with the learning needs of our students; for example, through a more precise or more timely intervention. It is also suggested that looking through this ‘window' enables us to concentrate our assessment more closely on the process of task completion, rather than focusing solely on the end product.

  1. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  2. Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative ...

  3. Advanced maternal age and risk perception: A qualitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Advanced maternal age (AMA) is associated with several adverse pregnancy outcomes, hence these pregnancies are considered to be “high risk.” A review of the empirical literature suggests that it is not clear how women of AMA evaluate their pregnancy risk. This study aimed to address this gap by exploring the risk perception of pregnant women of AMA. Methods A qualitative descriptive study was undertaken to obtain a rich and detailed source of explanatory data regarding perceived pregnancy risk of 15 women of AMA. The sample was recruited from a variety of settings in Winnipeg, Canada. In-depth interviews were conducted with nulliparous women aged 35 years or older, in their third trimester, and with singleton pregnancies. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim, and content analysis was used to identify themes and categories. Results Four main themes emerged: definition of pregnancy risk, factors influencing risk perception, risk alleviation strategies, and risk communication with health professionals. Conclusions Several factors may influence women's perception of pregnancy risk including medical risk, psychological elements, characteristics of the risk, stage of pregnancy, and health care provider’s opinion. Understanding these influential factors may help health professionals who care for pregnant women of AMA to gain insight into their perspectives on pregnancy risk and improve the effectiveness of risk communication strategies with this group. PMID:22988825

  4. Implementation of Risk Management in Malaysian Construction Industry: Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Abdul-Rahman, Hamzah; Wang, Chen; Sheik Mohamad, Farhanim

    2015-01-01

    Construction industries are exposed to wide array of risks, such as financial, design, and contractual ones, which might have a direct impact on their performance toward achieving the desired objectives. Risk Management is a proactive decision-making process used to minimize and manage the risks in the most efficient and appropriate manner. However, most construction firms in Malaysia do not apply formal risk management in their projects. Thus, this study aims to identify the actual process o...

  5. A comparative study on the clinical decision-making processes of nurse practitioners vs. medical doctors using scenarios in a secondary care environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Stephen; Moorley, Calvin; Barratt, Julian

    2017-05-01

    To investigate the decision-making skills of secondary care nurse practitioners compared with those of medical doctors. A literature review was conducted, searching for articles published from 1990 - 2012. The review found that nurse practitioners are key to the modernization of the National Health Service. Studies have shown that compared with doctors, nurse practitioners can be efficient and cost-effective in consultations. Qualitative research design. The information processing theory and think aloud approach were used to understand the cognitive processes of 10 participants (5 doctors and 5 nurse practitioners). One nurse practitioner was paired with one doctor from the same speciality and they were compared using a structured scenario-based interview. To ensure that all critical and relevant cues were covered by the individual participating in the scenario, a reference model was used to measure the degree of successful diagnosis, management and treatment. This study was conducted from May 2012 - January 2013. The data were processed for 5 months, from July to November 2012. The two groups of practitioners differed in the number of cue acquisitions obtained in the scenarios. In our study, nurse practitioners took 3 minutes longer to complete the scenarios. This study suggests that nurse practitioner consultations are comparable to those of medical doctors in a secondary care environment in terms of correct diagnoses and therapeutic treatments. The information processing theory highlighted that both groups of professionals had similar models for decision-making processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Development and Preliminary Validation of Refugee Trauma History Checklist (RTHC)-A Brief Checklist for Survey Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigvardsdotter, Erika; Nilsson, Henrik; Malm, Andreas; Tinghög, Petter; Gottvall, Maria; Vaez, Marjan; Saboonchi, Fredrik

    2017-10-04

    A high proportion of refugees have been subjected to potentially traumatic experiences (PTEs), including torture. PTEs, and torture in particular, are powerful predictors of mental ill health. This paper reports the development and preliminary validation of a brief refugee trauma checklist applicable for survey studies. A pool of 232 items was generated based on pre-existing instruments. Conceptualization, item selection and item refinement was conducted based on existing literature and in collaboration with experts. Ten cognitive interviews using a Think Aloud Protocol (TAP) were performed in a clinical setting, and field testing of the proposed checklist was performed in a total sample of n = 137 asylum seekers from Syria. The proposed refugee trauma history checklist (RTHC) consists of 2 × 8 items, concerning PTEs that occurred before and during the respondents' flight, respectively. Results show low item non-response and adequate psychometric properties Conclusion: RTHC is a usable tool for providing self-report data on refugee trauma history surveys of community samples. The core set of included events can be augmented and slight modifications can be applied to RTHC for use also in other refugee populations and settings.

  7. LANGUAGE USE AT AL-AMIN CHILDREN ISLAMIC BOARDING SCHOOL IN SUKOHARJO, CENTRAL JAVA (A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qanitah Masykuroh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is abstracted from the findings of a case study aimed at describing the codes used by children at Al-Amin Children Islamic Boarding School in Sukoharjo, Central Java. The majority of children at this Children Islamic Boarding School are bilinguals. They use javanese as their first language and Indonesian as their second language. However; they live in a specific language condition in which they should only use Indonesian in their daily activities. The analysis shows that the codes used by children are in the form of language (Indonesian and Javanese, speech level (ngoko, madya and krama, and style (formal, informal and brief. The differentiation of function between Indonesian and Javanese is not quite clear. Frequently, children use both Indonesian and Javanese in many occassions. As a result, there amny code switching and code mixing in their speech. Code swicthing occured in their speech to function: (1 count (2 think aloud (3 show annoyance (4 give emphasis (5 give reinforcement (6 give respect, and (7 make quotation. The result also shows that code mixing indicates that children's mastery of Indonesian and Javanese is still lacking. Besides, it also indicates that they get confused with language function. Key words: code forms, code function, code switching, and code mixing

  8. Development and Preliminary Validation of Refugee Trauma History Checklist (RTHC—A Brief Checklist for Survey Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Sigvardsdotter

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A high proportion of refugees have been subjected to potentially traumatic experiences (PTEs, including torture. PTEs, and torture in particular, are powerful predictors of mental ill health. This paper reports the development and preliminary validation of a brief refugee trauma checklist applicable for survey studies. Methods: A pool of 232 items was generated based on pre-existing instruments. Conceptualization, item selection and item refinement was conducted based on existing literature and in collaboration with experts. Ten cognitive interviews using a Think Aloud Protocol (TAP were performed in a clinical setting, and field testing of the proposed checklist was performed in a total sample of n = 137 asylum seekers from Syria. Results: The proposed refugee trauma history checklist (RTHC consists of 2 × 8 items, concerning PTEs that occurred before and during the respondents’ flight, respectively. Results show low item non-response and adequate psychometric properties Conclusion: RTHC is a usable tool for providing self-report data on refugee trauma history surveys of community samples. The core set of included events can be augmented and slight modifications can be applied to RTHC for use also in other refugee populations and settings.

  9. A Qualitative Study on the Content Validity of the Social Capital Scales in the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanne Berthelsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II includes scales for measuring 'workplace social capital'. The overall aim of this article is to evaluate the content validity of the following scales: horizontal trust, vertical trust and justice based on data from cognitive interviews using a think-aloud procedure. Informants were selected to achieve variation in gender, age, region of residence, and occupation. A predetermined coding scheme was used to identify: 1 Perspective (reflection on behalf of oneself only or abstraction to a broader perspective, 2 Use of response options, 3 Contexts challenging the process of answering, and 4 Overall reflections included in the retrieval and judgement processes leading to an answer for each item. The results showed that 1 the intended shift from individual to a broader perspective worked for eight out of eleven items. 2 The response option balancing in the middle covered different meanings. Retrieval of information needed to answer constituted a problem in four out of eleven items. 3 Three contextually challenging situations were identified. 4 For most items the reflections corresponded well with the intention of the scales, though the items asking about withheld information caused more problems in answering and lower content validity compared to the other items of the scales. In general, the findings supported the content validity of the COPSOQ II measurement of workplace social capital as a group construct. The study opens for new insight into how concepts and questions are understood and answered among people coming from different occupations and organizational settings.

  10. Putting risk analysis into perspective: a comparative review of major societal risk studies of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dooley, J.E.; Hansson, B.; Kaspersson, R.; ORiordan, T.; Paschen, H.

    1983-04-01

    The emphasis in this final report of the project Evaluation of major Swedish energy risk assessments in an international perspective is shifted towards the comparative aspect. The comprehensive nuclear risk study has been used as an instrument to satisfy many needs simultaneously. The research consisted of an examination of existing risk studies of five nations, namely West Germany, UK, US, Canada and Sweden. The effect of nuclear risk studies on society at large and on public attitude towards nuclear power in particular is discussed. Finally, the effect on the nuclear establishment is analysed. (G.B.)

  11. A Case-Based Study of Students' Visuohaptic Experiences of Electric Fields around Molecules: Shaping the Development of Virtual Nanoscience Learning Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunnar E. Höst

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent educational research has suggested that immersive multisensory virtual environments offer learners unique and exciting knowledge-building opportunities for the construction of scientific knowledge. This paper delivers a case-based study of students’ immersive interaction with electric fields around molecules in a multisensory visuohaptic virtual environment. The virtual architecture presented here also has conceptual connections to the flourishing quest in contemporary literature for the pressing need to communicate nanoscientific ideas to learners. Five upper secondary school students’ prior conceptual understanding of electric fields and their application of this knowledge to molecular contexts, were probed prior to exposure to the virtual model. Subsequently, four students interacted with the visuohaptic model while performing think-aloud tasks. An inductive and heuristic treatment of videotaped verbal and behavioural data revealed distinct interrelationships between students’ interactive strategies implemented when executing tasks in the virtual system and the nature of their conceptual knowledge deployed. The obtained qualitative case study evidence could serve as an empirical basis for informing the rendering and communication of overarching nanoscale ideas. At the time of composing this paper for publication in the current journal, the research findings of this study have been put into motion in informing a broader project goal of developing educational virtual environments for depicting nanophenomena.

  12. On the complementary presentation of results of risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

    1983-01-01

    The presentation of the loss of years of life provides the opportunity to illustrate in complementary way the mortality risks evaluated as part of risk studies. As phase A of the DRS (German risk study nuclear power plants) bears upon the results of the American ''Reactor Safety Study'' (WASH 1400) it does not contain that factor of failure which has only been determined in subsequent studies. Phase B intends to present the results of risk assessments increasingly in form of abridged lifetime. (orig.) [de

  13. Study on risk factors of PWR accidents beyond design basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Seung Hoon; Nah, W. J.; Bang, Y. S.; Oh, D. Y.; Oh, S. H.

    2005-01-01

    Development of the regulatory guidelines for Beyond Design Basis Accidents (BDBA) with high risk requires a detailed investigation of major factors contributing to the event risk. In this study, each event was classified by the level of risk, based on the probabilistic safety assessment results, so that BDBA with high risk could be selected, with consideration of foreign and domestic regulations, and operating experiences. The regulatory requirements and technical backgrounds for the selected accidents were investigated, and effective regulatory approaches for risk reduction of the accidents. The following conclusions were drawn from this study: - Selected high risk BDBA is station blackout, anticipated without scram, total loss of feedwater. - Major contributors to the risk of selected events were investigated, and appropriate assessment of them was recommended for development of the regulatory guidelines

  14. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Risk management executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This document is the first in a four volume series that comprise the risk management study for the retired, surplus facilities. Volume 2 is the risk evaluation work procedure; volume 3 provides the results for the risk evaluation; and volume 4 is the risk-reduction cost comparison

  15. Risk Management in Information Technology Project: An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornelius Irfandhi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The companies are facing some risks due to changes in a dynamic environment. If risks are not managed properly, it will have some negative impacts on the companies at the present and the future. One important function of the Information Technology (IT governance is risk management. Risk management in IT project aims to provide a safe environment for IT projects undertaken. Risk management becomes an important process for the success of IT projects. This article discussed the risk of IT project and whether there was a relationship between risk management and the success of the project. The method used was performing a literature review of several scientific articles which published between 2010 and 2014. The results of this study are the presence of risk management and risk manager influence the success of the project. Risk analysis and risk monitoring and control also have a relationship with the subjective performance of IT projects. If risk management is applied properly, the chance of the success of the projects undertaken can be increased. 

  16. Black box integration of computer-aided diagnosis into PACS deserves a second chance: results of a usability study concerning bone age assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geldermann, Ina; Grouls, Christoph; Kuhl, Christiane; Deserno, Thomas M; Spreckelsen, Cord

    2013-08-01

    Usability aspects of different integration concepts for picture archiving and communication systems (PACS) and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) were inquired on the example of BoneXpert, a program determining the skeletal age from a left hand's radiograph. CAD-PACS integration was assessed according to its levels: data, function, presentation, and context integration focusing on usability aspects. A user-based study design was selected. Statements of seven experienced radiologists using two alternative types of integration provided by BoneXpert were acquired and analyzed using a mixed-methods approach based on think-aloud records and a questionnaire. In both variants, the CAD module (BoneXpert) was easily integrated in the workflow, found comprehensible and fitting in the conceptual framework of the radiologists. Weak points of the software integration referred to data and context integration. Surprisingly, visualization of intermediate image processing states (presentation integration) was found less important as compared to efficient handling and fast computation. Seamlessly integrating CAD into the PACS without additional work steps or unnecessary interrupts and without visualizing intermediate images may considerably improve software performance and user acceptance with efforts in time.

  17. Measuring third year undergraduate nursing students' reflective thinking skills and critical reflection self-efficacy following high fidelity simulation: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tutticci, Naomi; Lewis, Peter A; Coyer, Fiona

    2016-05-01

    Critical reflection underpins critical thinking, a highly desirable generic nursing graduate capability. To improve the likelihood of critical thinking transferring to clinical practice, reflective thinking needs to be measured within the learning space of simulation. This study was divided into two phases to address the reliability and validity measures of previously untested surveys. Phase One data was collected from individuals (n = 6) using a 'think aloud' approach and an expert panel to review content validity, and verbatim comment analysis was undertaken. The Reflective Thinking Instrument and Critical Reflection Self-Efficacy Visual Analogue Scale items were contextualised to simulation. The expert review confirmed these instruments exhibited content validity. Phase Two data was collected through an online survey (n = 58). Cronbach's alpha measured internal consistency and was demonstrated by all subscales and the Instrument as a whole (.849). There was a small to medium positive correlation between critical reflection self-efficacy and general self-efficacy (r = .324, n = 56, p = .048). Participant responses were positive regarding the simulation experience. The research findings demonstrated that the Reflective Thinking and Simulation Satisfaction survey is reliable. Further development of this survey to establish validity is recommended to make it viable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Feasibility study of component risk ranking for plant maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ushijima, Koji; Yonebayashi, Kenji; Narumiya, Yoshiyuki; Sakata, Kaoru; Kumano, Tetsuji

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power is the base load electricity source in Japan, and reduction of operation and maintenance cost maintaining or improving plant safety is one of the major issues. Recently, Risk Informed Management (RIM) is focused as a solution. In this paper, the outline regarding feasibility study of component risk ranking for plant maintenance for a typical Japanese PWR plant is described. A feasibility study of component risk raking for plant maintenance optimization is performed on check valves and motor-operated valves. Risk ranking is performed in two steps using probabilistic analysis (quantitative method) for risk ranking of components, and deterministic examination (qualitative method) for component review. In this study, plant components are ranked from the viewpoint of plant safety / reliability, and the applicability for maintenance is assessed. As a result, distribution of maintenance resources using risk ranking is considered effective. (author)

  19. RF EMF Risk Perception Revisited: Is the Focus on Concern Sufficient for Risk Perception Studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedemann, Peter M; Freudenstein, Frederik; Böhmert, Christoph; Wiart, Joe; Croft, Rodney J

    2017-06-08

    An implicit assumption of risk perception studies is that concerns expressed in questionnaires reflect concerns in everyday life. The aim of the present study is to check this assumption, i.e., the extrapolability of risk perceptions expressed in a survey, to risk perceptions in everyday life. To that end, risk perceptions were measured by a multidimensional approach. In addition to the traditional focus on measuring the magnitude of risk perceptions, the thematic relevance (how often people think about a risk issue) and the discursive relevance (how often people think about or discuss a risk issue) of risk perceptions were also collected. Taking into account this extended view of risk perception, an online survey was conducted in six European countries with 2454 respondents, referring to radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) risk potentials from base stations, and access points, such as WiFi routers and cell phones. The findings reveal that the present study's multidimensional approach to measuring risk perception provides a more differentiated understanding of RF EMF risk perception. High levels of concerns expressed in questionnaires do not automatically imply that these concerns are thematically relevant in everyday life. We use thematic relevance to distinguish between enduringly concerned (high concern according to both questionnaire and thematic relevance) and not enduringly concerned participants (high concern according to questionnaire but no thematic relevance). Furthermore, we provide data for the empirical value of this distinction: Compared to other participants, enduringly concerned subjects consider radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure to a greater extent as a moral and affective issue. They also see themselves as highly exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields. However, despite these differences, subjects with high levels of thematic relevance are nevertheless sensitive to exposure reduction as a means for improving the

  20. Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Seth J.

    2014-01-01

    Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…

  1. Risk perception, experience, and objective risk: a cross-national study with European emergency survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Daniela; Kehl, Doris; Hulse, Lynn; Schmidt, Silke

    2014-07-01

    Understanding public risk perceptions and their underlying processes is important in order to learn more about the way people interpret and respond to hazardous emergency events. Direct experience with an involuntary hazard has been found to heighten the perceived risk of experiencing the same hazard and its consequences in the future, but it remains unclear if cross-over effects are possible (i.e., experience with one hazard influencing perceived risk for other hazards also). Furthermore, the impact of objective risk and country of residence on perceived risk is not well understood. As part of the BeSeCu (Behavior, Security, and Culture) Project, a sample of 1,045 survivors of emergencies from seven European countries (i.e., Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Italy) was drawn. Results revealed heightened perceived risk for emergency events (i.e., domestic and public fires, earthquakes, floods, and terrorist attacks) when the event had been experienced previously plus some evidence of cross-over effects, although these effects were not so strong. The largest country differences in perceived risk were observed for earthquakes, but this effect was significantly reduced by taking into account the objective earthquake risk. For fires, floods, terrorist attacks, and traffic accidents, only small country differences in perceived risk were found. Further studies including a larger number of countries are welcomed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

  3. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

  4. Risk of falls after withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs: a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, Nathalie; Stricker, Bruno H. Ch; Pols, Huib A. P.; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: Falling in older persons is a frequent and serious clinical problem. Several drugs have been associated with increased fall risk. The objective of this study was to identify differences in the incidence of falls after withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction) of fall-risk-increasing drugs

  5. Risk of cardiovascular disease? A qualitative study of risk interpretation among patients with high cholesterol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, P.; Edwards, A.; Risor, M. B.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have shown the importance of paying attention to lay peoples' interpretations of risk of disease, in order to explain health-related behavior. However, risk interpretations interplay with social context in complex ways. The objective was to explore how asymptomatic...

  6. RF EMF Risk Perception Revisited: Is the Focus on Concern Sufficient for Risk Perception Studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedemann, Peter M.; Freudenstein, Frederik; Böhmert, Christoph; Wiart, Joe; Croft, Rodney J.

    2017-01-01

    An implicit assumption of risk perception studies is that concerns expressed in questionnaires reflect concerns in everyday life. The aim of the present study is to check this assumption, i.e., the extrapolability of risk perceptions expressed in a survey, to risk perceptions in everyday life. To that end, risk perceptions were measured by a multidimensional approach. In addition to the traditional focus on measuring the magnitude of risk perceptions, the thematic relevance (how often people think about a risk issue) and the discursive relevance (how often people think about or discuss a risk issue) of risk perceptions were also collected. Taking into account this extended view of risk perception, an online survey was conducted in six European countries with 2454 respondents, referring to radio frequency electromagnetic field (RF EMF) risk potentials from base stations, and access points, such as WiFi routers and cell phones. The findings reveal that the present study’s multidimensional approach to measuring risk perception provides a more differentiated understanding of RF EMF risk perception. High levels of concerns expressed in questionnaires do not automatically imply that these concerns are thematically relevant in everyday life. We use thematic relevance to distinguish between enduringly concerned (high concern according to both questionnaire and thematic relevance) and not enduringly concerned participants (high concern according to questionnaire but no thematic relevance). Furthermore, we provide data for the empirical value of this distinction: Compared to other participants, enduringly concerned subjects consider radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure to a greater extent as a moral and affective issue. They also see themselves as highly exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields. However, despite these differences, subjects with high levels of thematic relevance are nevertheless sensitive to exposure reduction as a means for improving the

  7. HERMES probabilistic risk assessment. Pilot study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parisot, F.; Munoz, J.

    1993-01-01

    The study was performed in 1989 of the contribution of probabilistic analysis for the optimal construction of system safety status in aeronautical and European nuclear industries, shows the growing trends towards incorporation of quantitative safety assessment and lead to an agreement to undertake a prototype proof study on Hermes. The main steps of the study and results are presented in the paper

  8. NEW MARKERS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR RISK: FROM STUDIES TO CLINICAL GUIDELINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Anichkov

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available New markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD risk are the subject of an intensive discussion in the scientific literature. The biomarkers (newlipid parameters, inflammatory markers and signs of subclinical atherosclerosis are candidates to be included in models to assess the cumulative risk of CVD. The paper considers the basic studies dealing with new markers of CVD risk and their place in current clinical recommendations.

  9. Basic aspects and results of the German risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, A.; Heuser, F.W.

    1981-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the investigations and results of the German Risk Study (Phase A). Similar to its American counterpart [Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400)], the German Risk Study assesses the societal risks associated with potential accidents in nuclear power plants sited in the Federal Republic of Germany. The technical part of the analysis was performed for a representative pressurized-water-reactor nuclear power plant of the 1300-MW(e) class. For the risk assessment, 19 sites were considered, with a total of 25 reactor units presently in operation, under construction, or undergoing the licensing procedure. In the spring of 1981 a translation of the main report [German Risk Study-Main Report (EPRI-NP-1804-SR)], including the investigations and results of Phase A, was published by the Electric Power Research Institute

  10. The study of risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Simonneau

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of published evidence exists on the risk factors for disease progression in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. The Scientific Steering Committee for the Study of Risk in PAH was established to bring together leading clinical and statistical experts in PAH and risk modelling, for the purpose of advancing the understanding of the risk of development and progression of PAH. Herein, we discuss the impact of this information on three key areas: 1 clinical decision-making; 2 policy and reimbursement; and 3 future trials and research.

  11. Do Learners Notice Enhanced Forms While Interacting with the L2? An Online and Offline Study of the Role of Written Input Enhancement in L2 Reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, Ronald P.

    2001-01-01

    Think-aloud protocols were gathered to establish that first-year college level participants noticed targeted linguistic forms (Spanish formal imperatives) while reading an enhanced or unenhanced text. Suggests there are no significant benefits of written input enhancement over unenhanced written input for the amount of reported noticing of Spanish…

  12. Usability testing of Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) decision support for integrating care-based counseling of pre-diabetes in an electronic health record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrimes, Dillon; Kitos, Nicole R; Kushniruk, Andre; Mann, Devin M

    2014-09-01

    the tool's sequence, which supported recording current exercise and diet followed by a diet and exercise goal setting procedure to reduce the risk of diabetes onset. This study demonstrated that "think-aloud" protocol analysis with "near-live" clinical simulations provided a successful usability evaluation of a new primary care pre-diabetes shared goal setting tool. Each phase of the study provided complementary observations on problems with the new onscreen tool and was used to show the influence of the ADAPT framework on the usability, workflow integration, and communication between the patient and provider. The think-aloud tests with the provider showed the tool can be used according to the ADAPT framework (exercise-to-diet behavior change and tool utilization), while the clinical simulations revealed the ADAPT framework to realistically support patient-provider communication to obtain behavioral change contract. SDM interactions and mechanisms affecting protocol-based care can be more completely captured by combining "near-live" clinical simulations with traditional "think-aloud analysis" which augments clinician utilization. More analysis is required to verify if the rich communication actions found in Phase II compliment clinical workflows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modelling and propagation of uncertainties in the German Risk Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, E.; Krzykacz, B.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessments are generally subject to uncertainty considerations. This is because of the various estimates that are involved. The paper points out those estimates in the so-called phase A of the German Risk Study, for which uncertainties were quantified. It explains the probabilistic models applied in the assessment to their impact on the findings of the study. Finally the resulting subjective confidence intervals of the study results are presented and their sensitivity to these probabilistic models is investigated

  14. Risk factors for autism: An Egyptian study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Farida El-Baz

    IQ assessment using Stanford–Binrent intelligence scale, and assessment of severity ... All studied developmental milestones were delayed among autistic children than ... Peer review under responsibility of Ain Shams University. ..... Treatment and educa- ..... communication in people with autism and intellectual disability. J.

  15. Prospective study of blood metabolites associated with colorectal cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Xiang; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Rothman, Nathaniel; Yu, Danxia; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Cai, Hui; Ma, Xiao; Lan, Qing; Gao, Yu-Tang; Jia, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Zheng, Wei

    2018-02-26

    Few prospective studies, and none in Asians, have systematically evaluated the relationship between blood metabolites and colorectal cancer risk. We conducted a nested case-control study to search for risk-associated metabolite biomarkers for colorectal cancer in an Asian population using blood samples collected prior to cancer diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was performed to assess associations of metabolites with cancer risk. In this study, we included 250 incident cases with colorectal cancer and individually matched controls nested within two prospective Shanghai cohorts. We found 35 metabolites associated with risk of colorectal cancer after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Among them, 12 metabolites were glycerophospholipids including nine associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer and three with increased risk [odds ratios per standard deviation increase of transformed metabolites: 0.31-1.98; p values: 0.002-1.25 × 10 -10 ]. The other 23 metabolites associated with colorectal cancer risk included nine lipids other than glycerophospholipid, seven aromatic compounds, five organic acids and four other organic compounds. After mutual adjustment, nine metabolites remained statistically significant for colorectal cancer. Together, these independently associated metabolites can separate cancer cases from controls with an area under the curve of 0.76 for colorectal cancer. We have identified that dysregulation of glycerophospholipids may contribute to risk of colorectal cancer. © 2018 UICC.

  16. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  17. Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

  18. Epidemiological studies of radiation risks (NRPB Association)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.; Kellerer, A.M.; Chmelevsky, D.

    1993-01-01

    Objectives of project are: to analyse data on populations exposed to high doses of radiation, such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and groups of uranium miners; to examine data on populations exposed at low doses and methods for analysing such data; to perform preparatory work for the compilation of 'probability of causation' tables that are specific to EC countries and that also cover radon daughter exposures; to study the incidence and mortality from thyroid cancer in a cohort with medical exposures to 131 I; to study cancer incidence and mortality among Swedish patients given radiotherapy for skin haemangioma in childhood; and to examine the incidence of second tumours among Italian patients given radiotherapy for cancer of the head, neck, breast, endometrium, uterine cervix or thyroid. Results of the six contributions for the reporting period are presented. (R.P.) 4 refs

  19. Screening situations for risk of ethical conflicts: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlish, Carol L; Hellyer, Joan Henriksen; Brown-Saltzman, Katherine; Miers, Anne G; Squire, Karina

    2015-05-01

    Ethical conflicts, often leading to poor teamwork and moral distress, are very challenging to patients, patients' families, and health care providers. A proactive approach to ethical conflicts may improve patient care outcomes. To examine acceptability and feasibility of an ethics screening and early intervention tool for use by nurses caring for critically ill patients. Twenty-eight nurses in 2 medical centers applied the ethics screening tool to 55 patient situations. Nurses assessed situations for risk factors and early indicators of ethical conflicts and analyzed level of risk. At study completion, nurses participated in focus group discussions about the tool's benefits and challenges. Frequency counts were performed on risk factors and early indicators of ethical conflicts. Content analysis was used on written explanations regarding high-, medium-, and low-risk situations and on focus group data. Older patients with multiple comorbid conditions and aggressive treatments were frequently assessed to be at risk for ethical conflicts. Nurses who witnessed patients' suffering and deterioration were likely to initiate the screening process. The most prominent family risk factors included unrealistic expectations and adamancy about treatment. The most prominent early indicators were signs of patients' suffering, unrealistic expectations, and providers' own moral distress. High-risk situations averaged a greater number of risk factors and early indicators than did medium- and low-risk situations. Certain risk factors featured prominently in high-risk situations. A phenomenon of shared suffering emerged from the study and signifies the importance of relational strategies such as routine family conferences and ethics consultation. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  20. Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

    2018-05-01

    School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.

  1. Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O [Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Programmgruppe Technik und Gesellschaft; Swaton, E [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). Joint IAEA-IIASA Risk Assessment Group

    1984-01-01

    Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.

  2. Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Swaton, E.

    1984-01-01

    Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed. (author)

  3. Czech miner studies of lung cancer risk from radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2002-01-01

    Epidemiological evidence of lung cancer risk from radon is based mainly on studies of miners. Two such studies among Czech uranium miners were established in 1970 and 1980. A subcohort of 5002 miners and a nested-in case-control study contribute to a joint European project. In this paper, the subcohort of miners with 495 lung cancers is described. The excess relative risk depends linearly on cumulative exposure incurred more than 5 years before. The relative effect from exposures in the distant past decreases by 62% per decade. Simultaneously, the excess relative risk is lower by 43% per decade in dependence on age at exposure. The effect of smoking, partly analysed in the study, suggests a twofold elevation in the relative risk coefficient among non-smokers, but this difference is not significant. (author)

  4. NIH study confirms risk factors for male breast cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooled data from studies of about 2,400 men with breast cancer and 52,000 men without breast cancer confirmed that risk factors for male breast cancer include obesity, a rare genetic condition called Klinefelter syndrome, and gynecomastia.

  5. Main results of the German nuclear power plant risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danzmann, H.J.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; purpose and task of the German risk study; approach; results of investigations (analyses of engineered plant features; determination of accident consequences); emergency response model; protective actions and countermeasures; evaluation. (U.K.)

  6. Risk factors for oligodendroglial tumors: a pooled international study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McCarthy, Bridget J; Rankin, Kristin M; Aldape, Ken

    2011-01-01

    Oligodendroglial tumors are rare subtypes of brain tumors and are often combined with other glial tumors in epidemiological analyses. However, different demographic associations and clinical characteristics suggest potentially different risk factors. The purpose of this study was to investigate p...

  7. BNSF San Bernardino case study : positive train control risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    The Federal Railroad Administration funded the BNSF San Bernardino Case Study to verify its Generalized Train Movement : Simulator (GTMS) risk assessment capabilities on a planned implementation of the I-ETMS PTC system. The analysis explicitly : sim...

  8. Physical activity, obesity, weight change, and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxley, Rachel R; Misialek, Jeffrey R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Loehr, Laura R; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Chen, Lin Y; Alonso, Alvaro

    2014-08-01

    Physical activity (PA) has previously been suggested to attenuate the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) conferred by excess body weight and weight gain. We prospectively examined the relationship between body size, weight change, and level of PA in a biracial cohort of middle-aged men and women. Baseline characteristics on risk factor levels were obtained on 14 219 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. AF incidence was ascertained from 1987 to 2009. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations between body mass index, waist circumference, relative weight change, and PA level with incident AF. During follow-up, there were 1775 cases of incident AF. Body mass index and waist circumference were positively associated with AF as was weight loss/gain of >5% initial body weight. An ideal level of PA had a small protective effect on AF risk and partially attenuated the risk of AF associated with excess weight in men but not women: compared with men with a normal body mass index, the risk of AF in obese men with an ideal, intermediate, and poor level of PA at baseline was increased by 37%, 129%, and 156% (Pinteraction=0.04). During follow-up, PA did not modify the association between weight gain and risk of AF. Obesity and extreme weight change are risk factors for incident AF, whereas being physically active is associated with a small reduction in risk. In men only, being physically active offset some, but not all, of the risk incurred with excess body weight. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1983-01-01

    Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

  10. Lifestyle Risk Factors Increase the Risk of Hospitalization for Sciatica: Findings of Four Prospective Cohort Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Rahman; Euro, Ulla; Heliövaara, Markku; Hirvensalo, Mirja; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Karppinen, Jaro; Lahti, Jouni; Rahkonen, Ossi; Raitakari, Olli T; Solovieva, Svetlana; Yang, Xiaolin; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Lallukka, Tea

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of lifestyle risk factors on the risk of hospitalization for sciatica and to determine whether overweight or obesity modifies the effect of leisure-time physical activity on hospitalization for sciatica. We included 4 Finnish prospective cohort studies (Health 2000 Survey, Mobile Clinic Survey, Helsinki Health Study, and Young Finns Study) consisting of 34,589 participants and 1259 hospitalizations for sciatica during 12 to 30 years of follow-up. Sciatica was based on hospital discharge register data. We conducted a random-effects individual participant data meta-analysis. After adjustment for confounding factors, current smoking at baseline increased the risk of subsequent hospitalization for sciatica by 33% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13%-56%), whereas past smokers were no longer at increased risk. Obesity defined by body mass index increased the risk of hospitalization for sciatica by 36% (95% CI 7%-74%), and abdominal obesity defined by waist circumference increased the risk by 41% (95% CI 3%-93%). Walking or cycling to work reduced the risk of hospitalization for sciatica by 33% (95% CI 4%-53%), and the effect was independent of body weight and other leisure activities, while other types of leisure activities did not have a statistically significant effect. Smoking and obesity increase the risk of hospitalization for sciatica, whereas walking or cycling to work protects against hospitalization for sciatica. Walking and cycling can be recommended for the prevention of sciatica in the general population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi

    2012-01-01

    The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.

  12. German study on the risks of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wollny, V.

    1987-01-01

    The 'Deutsche Risikostudie Kernkraftwerke', DRS, (German study on the risks of nuclear plants) calculates a frequency of 1/10000 years (i.e. once in 10000 years of reactor operation) for the event of insufficient cooling of the reactor core occurring. The resulting collective risk is put at approximately 10 deaths per year for 25 plants. As the explanations show, the error margin of such a risk statement is enormous. Moreover, much seems to indicate that the risk was underrated. Apart from this, risk analyses are of doubtful value in the decision process for or against the introduction of large-scale technologies. They cannot replace the individual decision of all concerned. (orig./HSCH) [de

  13. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  14. Study on information dissemination for effective nuclear risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The aim of this study are to develop an information system and guideline for nuclear risk communication between expert and citizens as well as between both experts in terms of lessons learned from serious disaster such as Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident. Technical standards for disseminating a result and process of seismic/tsunami PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of nuclear facility as well as nuclear risk information in an emergency, and risk communication in normal times are needed. Tins study examines the framework, contents, and technical basis for developing an information system for nuclear risk communication. In addition, this study identifies the communication issues of nuclear risk communication concerning the seismic/tsunami PRA through the testing information systems in areas around nuclear facilities and by providing effective implementation guidelines. JNES has developed the information system specified as Protection of Nuclear Power Plants against Tsunamis and Post Earthquake considerations in the External Zone (TiPEEZ) as part of IAEA International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP). The EBP is currently preparing technical documents (TECDOC) regarding the implementation of the TiPEEZ. After the Fukushima accident, there has been increasing demand for disaster mitigation systems to share risk information between nuclear organizations and local municipalities. JNES and Niigata Institute of Technology conduct implementation of TiPEEZ for the practical use based on the corroborative works with Kashiwazaki city and citizens. (author)

  15. Study on information dissemination for effective nuclear risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study are to develop an information system and guideline for nuclear risk communication between expert and citizens as well as between both experts in terms of lessons learned from serious disaster such as Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident. Technical standards for disseminating a result and process of seismic/tsunami PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of nuclear facility as well as nuclear risk information in an emergency, and risk communication in normal times are needed. Tins study examines the framework, contents, and technical basis for developing an information system for nuclear risk communication. In addition, this study identifies the communication issues of nuclear risk communication concerning the seismic/tsunami PRA through the testing information systems in areas around nuclear facilities and by providing effective implementation guidelines. JNES has developed the information system specified as Protection of Nuclear Power Plants against Tsunamis and Post Earthquake considerations in the External Zone (TiPEEZ) as part of IAEA International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP). The EBP is currently preparing technical documents (TECDOC) regarding the implementation of the TiPEEZ. After the Fukushima accident, there has been increasing demand for disaster mitigation systems to share risk information between nuclear organizations and local municipalities. JNES and Niigata Institute of Technology conduct implementation of TiPEEZ for the practical use based on the corroborative works with Kashiwazaki city and citizens. (author)

  16. Social network, social support, and risk of incident stroke: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagayoshi, Mako; Everson-Rose, Susan A; Iso, Hiroyasu; Mosley, Thomas H; Rose, Kathryn M; Lutsey, Pamela L

    2014-10-01

    Having a small social network and lack of social support have been associated with incident coronary heart disease; however, epidemiological evidence for incident stroke is limited. We assessed the longitudinal association of a small social network and lack of social support with risk of incident stroke and evaluated whether the association was partly mediated by vital exhaustion and inflammation. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study measured social network and social support in 13 686 men and women (mean, 57 years; 56% women; 24% black; 76% white) without a history of stroke. Social network was assessed by the 10-item Lubben Social Network Scale and social support by a 16-item Interpersonal Support Evaluation List-Short Form. During a median follow-up of 18.6 years, 905 incident strokes occurred. Relative to participants with a large social network, those with a small social network had a higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.44 [1.02-2.04]) after adjustment for demographics, socioeconomic variables, marital status, behavioral risk factors, and major stroke risk factors. Vital exhaustion, but not inflammation, partly mediated the association between a small social network and incident stroke. Social support was unrelated to incident stroke. In this sample of US community-dwelling men and women, having a small social network was associated with excess risk of incident stroke. As with other cardiovascular conditions, having a small social network may be associated with a modestly increased risk of incident stroke. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Human risk relationships derived from epidemiology and laboratory studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuddihy, R.G.; Boecker, B.B.; Hahn, F.F.; McClellan, R.O.

    1983-01-01

    Proven techniques are needed for incorporating the results of laboratory toxicology studies into human risk assessments. Two sample calculations of lung cancer risk factors for inhaled radioactive particles and diesel engine exhaust are given here to illustrate a toxicology information matrix approach. This approach combines the results of epidemiology and laboratory animal studies of the substance or agent of principal concern, along with similar information on other surrogate substances. Beyond the estimates of lung cancer risk factors derived by using this approach, an additional advantage is gained by having estimates of uncertainty that can be obtained by incorporating all available toxicology information into the analysis. This approach is recommended for both risk assessment and in designing follow-on toxicology studies to improve preliminary assessments for new potentially harmful agents entering our environment

  18. The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Arias, R. [Universidad Complutense, Madrid (Spain); Prades, A. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Arranz, L. [Hospital Ramon y Cajal, Madrid (Spain); Macias, M.T. [CSIC, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-05-01

    Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)

  19. Sustainability and Risk Disclosure: An Exploratory Study on Sustainability Reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Truant

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent policy changes in sustainability reporting, such as the ones related to the new European Directive on non-financial disclosure (2014/95/EU, the standards issued by the American Sustainability Accounting Standard Board (SASB, the G4 guidelines issued by the Global Sustainability Standard Board (GSSB, and the framework of the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC stress the importance of extending the disclosure of ethical, social, and environmental risks within financial and social-environmental reporting. Institutional pressure has notably increased among organizations, in setting up risk management tools to understand sustainability risks within managerial and reporting practices. Given such institutional pressure, the corporate reaction in providing additional sustainability risk disclosure calls for attention and scrutiny. Therefore, this study aims at addressing such issues from an exploratory perspective. We based our analysis on a sample of large Italian organizations that issued sustainability disclosure in accordance with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI, G4 guidelines, and we tested the relationship between their level of risk disclosure and other relevant variables. Consistently with the literature, we found that “experienced” sustainable reporters provide a significant volume of disclosure, and that disclosure quality on risk is positively influenced by their international presence and reporting experience. However, when accounting for specific risk-related areas of disclosure, only a few of them seem to adopt a managerial perspective linking strategy, risk metrics, and disclosure.

  20. The structure of risk perception. A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Arias, R.; Prades, A.; Arranz, L.; Macias, M.T.

    2000-01-01

    Research by cognitive and social psychologists has demonstrated that when lay persons make estimates of risks they do not merely calculate in terms of probabilistic information. People tend to construe the risk in accordance with other schemata. The Psychometric Paradigm (Slovic et. al., 1980), found out two main dimensions in the perception of risk: the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness factors. This paper presents some of the key findings of a comparative Latin-American study on radiological risk perception in the health area. The main objective is to check whether or not the Dread and the Familiarity-Voluntariness dimensions explain the perception of risk in this specific context. A questionnaire was distributed to outpatient samples from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). A list of 22 risks, including both radiological and non-radiological ones, were evaluated on two rating scales: possibility and seriousness. Factor analysis, both exploratory and confirmatory, as well as Multidimensional Scaling will be used for the data analysis. The paper will discuss the main cross-cultural differences with regard to the structure of risk perception. The peculiarities of the health related risks will be emphasised. (author)

  1. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  2. Risk for Researchers Studying Social Deviance or Criminal Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia L. Brougham

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Researchers often encounter dangerous situations while conducting social research. The concept of risk to researchers refers to the possible harm that may occur to researchers while in the field or after leaving a research project. This study explores issues experienced by social scientists engaged in research on social deviance or criminal behavior. The goal of this research was to discover the types of risk experienced by social scientists and any mediating factors affecting the experience of risk. An online survey was conducted to gather data on issues experienced by social scientists. This study found that researchers experienced a variety of risks within the categories of physical/health, emotional, legal, and personal/professional. Each of the survey options for risk were reported by at least one respondent; however, the greatest number of risks reported were of an emotional or personal/professional nature. There were no mediating factors found to be significant in relation to the experience of risk. This was a surprising finding especially for the variable of gender as it is suggested that gender plays a role in the experience of difficulties.

  3. Gout in Older Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Bridget Teevan; Köttgen, Anna; Law, Andrew; Grams, Morgan; Baer, Alan N.; Coresh, Josef

    2016-01-01

    Background: It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. Methods: We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population–based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63–6.63) increased gout risk in older age. Conclusions: These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age. PMID:26714568

  4. Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ughade Suresh

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.

  5. Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key

  6. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  7. Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome and Falls Risk: A Multi-Center Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callisaya, Michele L.; Ayers, Emmeline; Barzilai, Nir; Ferrucci, Luigi; Guralnik, Jack M.; Lipton, Richard B.; Otahal, Petr; Srikanth, Velandai K.; Verghese, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Background The Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome (MCR) is characterized by slow gait speed and cognitive complaints. Objectives The objective of this study was to determine if the presence of MCR increases the risk of falls in older people. Methods Individual participant data (n = 6,204) from five longitudinal studies from three countries were used for this analysis. MCR diagnosis was defined as both the presence of objectively measured slow gait speed and subjective cognitive complaints in those without dementia or mobility disability. Falls were prospectively ascertained using phone calls or questionnaires. Log binomial regression was performed to determine if MCR increased the risk of falls separately in each cohort. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool results from all cohorts. Results The mean age of participants was 74.9 (SD 6.8) years and 44% (n = 2728) were male. Overall 33.9% (n = 2104) reported a fall over follow-up. Pooled relative risk of MCR with any falls was RR 1.44 95% CI 1.16, 1.79. The components of MCR, slow gait (RR 1.30 95% CI 1.14, 1.47) and cognitive complaint (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07, 1.46) were also associated with an increased risk of any falls. In sub-analyses MCR was associated with any fall independent of previous falls (RR 1.29 95% CI 1.09, 1.53) and with multiple falls (RR 1.77, 95% CI 1.25, 2.51). Conclusion MCR is associated with an increased risk of falls. The increase in risk was higher than for its individual components. The simplicity of the MCR makes it an attractive falls risk screening tool for the clinic. PMID:27340851

  8. The Oncogenic Risks of Diagnostic CT Scam Studies in Children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brent, R.

    2004-01-01

    Brenner et al (2001) reported that estimates of the exposure to children from CT scans indicates that the exposures are both higher than from conventional radiographic studies and higher than is necessary to obtain quality examinations. utilizing the oncogenic risk data from the RERF study in Japan, Brenner et al estimated that the oncogenic risk in this population of CT exposed children exposed each year would result in an additional 500 cases of cancer. This risk estimate is supported by the RERF epidemiological data obtained from the populations exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. the increased risks associated with the increased exposure from CT scans have raised concern and stimulated discussion. Although there is little doubt about the benefits of CT scans in improving the health care of children, there is concern about the estimated oncogenic risk, especially since the frequency of CT studies has been increasing. Applying the oncogenic risks of ionizing radiation from the RERF data may not be appropriate for all types of radiation exposure for accurately predicting the incidence of cancer in exposed children because of the impact of 1) partial versus whole-body irradiation, and 2) the protraction of the exposure. Other population of children who have been exposed to radiation and whose incidence of cancer has been studied will be presented and those studies indicate that the risk of cancer is much lower or not increased at all with exposures in the diagnostic range. finally, the dramatic impact of the use of CT scans in clinical pediatric practice saves lives and improves diagnostic accuracy. Therefore, it is crucial that a scholarly evaluation of the risks and benefits should be initiated. The radiology community and the manufacturers have already initiated programs to decrease the exposure significantly. But it is essential that well-planned, retrospective and prospective epidemiology studies should be initiated to study the oncogenic risks. If you want to

  9. Suicide risk in placebo-controlled studies of major depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storosum, J. G.; van Zwieten, B. J.; van den Brink, W.; Gersons, B. P.; Broekmans, A. W.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if fear of an increased risk of attempted suicide in placebo groups participating in placebo-controlled studies is an argument against the performance of placebo-controlled trials in studies of major depression. All short-term and long-term,

  10. Social ties and risk for cancer - a prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergelt, Corinna; Prescott, Eva; Grønbaek, Morten

    2009-01-01

    consisted of 8 548 Danes who had been examined in 1991-1994 within the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The median length of follow-up was 9.3 years (range, 0-11.2 years). Social ties were measured from answers to a questionnaire on social networks. Regression analyses for cancers at the most frequent sites......BACKGROUND: Poor social support and small social networks have been associated with increased risks for conditions such as coronary heart disease as well as with overall mortality. We investigated the association between social ties and risk for cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study sample...... (breast, lung, prostate and colon and rectum) were conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, with adjustment for a number of well-known risk factors for cancer. RESULTS: While we found no significant association between social ties and risk for cancer in men, women with high social network scores...

  11. Social ties and risk for cancer - a prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergelt, C.; Prescott, E.; Gronbaek, M.

    2009-01-01

    consisted of 8 548 Danes who had been examined in 1991-1994 within the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The median length of follow-up was 9.3 years (range, 0-11.2 years). Social ties were measured from answers to a questionnaire on social networks. Regression analyses for cancers at the most frequent sites......Background. Poor social support and small social networks have been associated with increased risks for conditions such as coronary heart disease as well as with overall mortality. We investigated the association between social ties and risk for cancer. Material and methods. The study sample...... (breast, lung, prostate and colon and rectum) were conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, with adjustment for a number of well-known risk factors for cancer. Results. While we found no significant association between social ties and risk for cancer in men, women with high social network scores...

  12. Exploring inductive risk case studies of values in science

    CERN Document Server

    Richards, Ted

    2017-01-01

    Science is the most reliable means available for understanding the world around us and our place in it. But, since science draws conclusions based on limited empirical evidence, there is always a chance that a scientific inference will be incorrect. That chance, known as inductive risk, is endemic to science. Though inductive risk has always been present in scientific practice, the role of values in responding to it has only recently gained extensive attention from philosophers, scientists, and policy-makers. Exploring Inductive Risk brings together a set of eleven concrete case studies with the goals of illustrating the pervasiveness of inductive risk, assisting scientists and policymakers in responding to it, and moving theoretical discussions of this phenomenon forward. The case studies range over a wide variety of scientific contexts, including the drug approval process, high energy particle physics, dual-use research, climate science, research on gender disparities in employment, clinical trials, and to...

  13. Familial risks of glomerulonephritis - a nationwide family study in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akrawi, Delshad Saleh; Li, Xinjun; Sundquist, Jan; Fjellstedt, Erik; Sundquist, Kristina; Zöller, Bengt

    2016-08-01

    Familial risks of glomerulonephritis (acute, chronic and unspecified glomerulonephritis) have not been studied. This study aims to determine the familial risks of glomerulonephritis. Individuals born from1932 onwards diagnosed with glomerulonephritis (acute [n = 7011], chronic [n = 10,242] and unspecified glomerulonephritis [n = 5762]) were included. The familial risk (Standardized incidence ratio = SIR) was calculated for individuals whose parents/full-siblings were diagnosed with glomerulonephritis compared to those whose parents/full-siblings were not. The procedure was repeated for spouses. Familial concordant risk (same disease in proband and exposed relative) and discordant risk (different disease in proband and exposed relative) of glomerulonephritis were determined. Familial concordant risks (parents/full-sibling history) were: SIR = 3.57 (95% confidence interval, 2.77-4.53) for acute glomerulonephritis, SIR = 3.84 (3.37-4.36) for chronic glomerulonephritis and SIR = 3.75 (2.85-4.83) for unspecified glomerulonephritis. High familial risks were observed if two or more relatives were affected; the SIR was 209.83 (150.51-284.87) in individuals with at least one affected parent as well as one full-sibling. The spouse risk was only moderately increased (SIR = 1.53, 1.33-1.75). Family history of glomerulonephritis is a strong predictor for glomerulonephritis, and is a potentially useful tool in clinical risk assessment. Our data emphasize the contribution of familial factors to the glomerulonephritis burden in the community. Key Messages The familial risks (full-sibling/parent history) of glomerulonephritis (acute, chronic and unspecified glomerulonephritis) have not been determined previously. The familial risks of glomerulonephritis were increased among individuals with family history of acute, chronic or unspecified glomerulonephritis. The familial risks of glomerulonephritis were slightly increased among spouses indicating a

  14. Psychosocial risk factors, weight changes and risk of obesity: the Copenhagen City Heart Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Louise Bagger; Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine; Prescott, Eva

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to establish the effects of a range of psychosocial factors on weight changes and risk of obesity. The study population consisted of the 4,753 participants in the third (1991-1994) and fourth wave (2001-2003) of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. At baseline...... the participants were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work stress, vital exhaustion, social network, economic hardship, and intake of sleep medication. Weight and height were measured by health professionals. Weight changes and incident obesity was used as outcome measures. The participants...... in the associations between social network, economic hardship and weight gain or obesity. The number of psychosocial risk factors, as an indicator for clustering, was not associated with weight gain or obesity. In conclusion, major life events and vital exhaustion seem to play a role for weight gain and risk...

  15. Risk factors of kernicterus; a study in 312 icteric neonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjati Ardakani S

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Kernicterus, also known as bilirubin encephalopathy, is a neurologic syndrome resulting from the deposition of unconjugated bilirubin in the basal ganglia and brainstem nuclei. Indirect bilirubin is toxic for brain. Neurologic dysfunction (BIND that include acute phase (hyperbilirubin encephalopathy and chronic phase (Kernicterus resulting from hyperbilirubinemia and disruption of blood brain barrier. In this study, the association between bilirubin encephalopathy and risk factors was evaluated. Methods: In this retrospective study, 312 icteric neonates were admitted in the neonatal ward of Children's Hospital, Medical Center, Tehran, and 305 of these cases were evaluated. Patient histories were taken and physical examinations were performed. For each patient, the age, sex, birth weight, time of discharge from the hospital and risk factors were recorded, and a questionnaire was completed. Results: In this study, of the 305 icteric neonates evaluated, 25 cases had kernicterus. Risk factors included acidosis, prematurity, hemolysis, hypoglycemia, sepsis, respiratory distress, low birth weight, ABO incompatibility and G6PD deficiency. The mean level of bilirubin in cases of kernicterus was 32 mg/dl and in the others was 20 mg/dl (p=0.001. Kernicterus was most common among high risk neonates (p<0.001. Birth weight less than 2,500 gm was also an important factor (p=0.04. Conclusion: High-risk neonates need prompt treatment for hyperbilirubinemia compared to low risk neonates.

  16. Supply chain risk management of newspaper industry: A quantitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartika, Viny; Hisjam, Muh.; Sutopo, Wahyudi

    2018-02-01

    The newspaper industry has several distinctive features that make it stands out from other industries. The strict delivery deadline and zero inventory led to a very short time frame for production and distribution. On the other hand, there is pressure from the newsroom to encourage the start of production as slowly as possible in order to enter the news, while there is pressure from production and distribution to start production as early as possible. Supply chain risk management is needed in determining the best strategy for dealing with possible risks in the newspaper industry. In a case study of a newspaper in Surakarta, quantitative approaches are made to the newspaper supply chain risk management by calculating the expected cost of risk based on the magnitude of the impact and the probability of a risk event. From the calculation results obtained that the five risks with the highest value are newspaper delays to the end customer, broken plate, miss print, down machine, and delayed delivery of newspaper content. Then analyzed appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with such risk events.

  17. Nutritional risk assessment for Hip fracture, A Case control study

    OpenAIRE

    Torbergsen, Anne Cathrine

    2016-01-01

    The study was conducted at Oslo University Hospital, Norway. Patients were included from September 2009 until April 2011. In total 116 patients and 73 healthy non-fractured controls participated. The study has 3 parts. In the first part, we studied micronutrients and the risk of hip fracture in a case control study. In the second part, we conducted a randomized controlled nutrition intervention trial and finally, in the third part, we studied if micronutrients were associated with delirium in...

  18. Risk factors associated with lipomyelomeningocele: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Arash; Hanaei, Sara; Fadakar, Kaveh; Dadkhah, Sahar; Arjipour, Mahdi; Habibi, Zohreh; Nejat, Farideh; El Khashab, Mostafa

    2013-01-01

    In general, it seems that both genetic and environmental factors play important roles in the induction of neural tube defects. Lipomyelomeningocele (LipoMMC) is a rather common type of closed neural tube defect, but only limited studies have investigated the potential risk factors of this anomaly. Therefore, the purpose of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors involved in LipoMMC formation. Various risk factors were evaluated in 35 children between 1 month and 10 years of age with LipoMMC in a hospital-based case-control study. The 2 control arms consisted of 35 children with myelomeningocele (MMC group) and 35 children with congenital anomalies other than central nervous system problems (control group). All groups were matched for age and visited the same hospital. A structured questionnaire was used for the collection of all data, including the mothers' weight and height during pregnancy, education, reproductive history, previous abortions, and socioeconomic status, as well as the parents' consanguinity and family history of the same anomalies. Univariate analysis of the children with LipoMMC compared to the control group showed that the use of periconceptional folic acid supplementation was significantly lower in the MMC and LipoMMC groups compared to the control group. In addition, comparison of the MMC and control groups revealed statistically significant differences regarding the use of folic acid and maternal obesity. In multivariate analysis, use of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester was an independent risk factor for LipoMMC and MMC. Furthermore, maternal obesity was a significantly positive risk factor for MMC. The probable risk factors for LipoMMC were investigated in this case-control study. Consumption of folic acid in the periconceptional period and during the first trimester is an independent protective factor against LipoMMC. It seems that larger studies are needed to examine other possible

  19. Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

    2015-12-01

    This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

  20. A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Iravani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

  1. The Metabolic Syndrome and Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Paul L; Al-Khalidi, Hussein R; Friedman, Daniel J; Mulder, Hillary; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Rosamond, Wayne R; Lopes, Renato D; Gersh, Bernard J; Mark, Daniel B; Curtis, Lesley H; Post, Wendy S; Prineas, Ronald J; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Al-Khatib, Sana M

    2017-08-23

    Prior studies have demonstrated a link between the metabolic syndrome and increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. Whether the metabolic syndrome is associated with sudden cardiac death is uncertain. We characterized the relationship between sudden cardiac death and metabolic syndrome status among participants of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study (1987-2012) free of prevalent coronary heart disease or heart failure. Among 13 168 participants, 357 (2.7%) sudden cardiac deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 23.6 years. Participants with the metabolic syndrome (n=4444) had a higher cumulative incidence of sudden cardiac death than those without it (n=8724) (4.1% versus 2.3%, P metabolic syndrome, the metabolic syndrome was independently associated with sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio, 1.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.37-2.12, P metabolic syndrome criteria components. The risk of sudden cardiac death varied according to the number of metabolic syndrome components (hazard ratio 1.31 per additional component of the metabolic syndrome, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.44, P metabolic syndrome was associated with a significantly increased risk of sudden cardiac death irrespective of sex or race. The risk of sudden cardiac death was proportional to the number of metabolic syndrome components. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  2. Drug and alcohol crash risk : a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study used a case-control design to estimate the risk of crashes involving drivers using drugs, alcohol or both. Data was collected in Virginia Beach, Virginia, for 20 months. The study obtained biological measures on more than 3,000 crash...

  3. Stroke risk and NSAIDs: A systematic review of observational studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Varas-Lorenzo (Cristina); N. Riera-Guardia (Nuria); B. Calingaert (Brian); J. Castellsague (Jordi); A. Pariente (Antoine); L. Scotti (Lorenza); M.C.J.M. Sturkenboom (Miriam); S. Perez-Gutthann (Susana)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractAims: To perform a quantitative systematic review of observational studies on the risk of stroke associated with the use of individual NSAIDs. Methods and results: Searches were conducted using the Medline database within PubMed (1990-2008). Observational cohort or case-control studies

  4. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  5. Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, C M; Matsushita, K; Woodward, M; Wagenknecht, L E; Coresh, J; Selvin, E

    2016-09-01

    To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p < 0.05 for differences). The addition of three traditional and non-traditional biomarkers [β-2 microglobulin, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C-based eGFR] to Model 3 significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.716; p = 0.003) and accuracy of 10-year risk prediction for major complications in people with diabetes (midpoint percentiles of lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk changed from 18-68% to 12-87%). These biomarkers, particularly those of kidney filtration, may help distinguish between people at low versus high risk of long-term major complications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

    2002-01-01

    The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)

  7. Main results of the German risk study - phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1987-01-01

    To start the author introduces briefly some comments on main tasks and objectives of risk analysises which at least after the Chernobyl accident should be emphasized more explicitly. Following on some main results of the system - and accident event tree analysis of the German Risk Study, Phase B, are summarized. The second part of this paper deals with the analysis of core melt accidents performed in context of the study. Hetero investigations on the hydrogen problem and investigations on containment venting after a core melt accident will be discussed in more detail

  8. Offshore risk assessment principles, modelling and applications of QRA studies

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2007-01-01

    attempt has been made to capture the new trends in the regulations, to the extent they are known. There have over the last 10-15 years been published a few textbooks on risk assessment, most of them are devoted to relatively generic topics. Some are also focused on the risk management aspects, in general and with offshore applicability. None are known to address the needs and topics of the use of QRA studies by the offshore industry in particular. The present work is trying to bridge this gap. The use of QRA studies is somewhat special in Northern Europe, and par- cularly in Norway. The use of

  9. Treatment of operator actions in the HTGR risk assessment study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Silady, F.A.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1979-12-01

    Methods are presented for the treatment of operator actions, developed in the AIPA risk assessment study. Some examples are given of how these methods were applied to the analysis of potential HTGR accidents. Realistic predictions of accident risks required a balanced treatment of both beneficial and detrimental actions and responses of human operators and maintenance crews. Th essential elements of the human factors methodology used in the AIPA study include event tree and fault tree analysis, time-dependent operator response and repair models, a method for quantifying common cause failure probabilities, and synthesis of relevant experience data for use in these models

  10. Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Cardiorespiratory fitness, BMI, and risk of hypertension: the HYPGENE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankinen, Tuomo; Church, Timothy S; Rice, Treva; Bouchard, Claude; Blair, Steven N

    2007-10-01

    Cardiorespiratory fitness and regular physical activity are inversely associated with the risk of hypertension, and exercise training has been shown to lower elevated blood pressure (BP). Genetic factors contribute significantly to the interindividual differences in endurance training-induced changes in BP. However, similar data on the genotype-by-fitness interactions on the risk of hypertension are scarce. In 2000, we started a systematic collection of blood samples from all consenting subjects of the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) with a goal to generate a resource for studies addressing genotype-by-fitness interaction effects on various health-related end points. Here, we introduce the rationale and design of the first study based on the ACLS genetics resource focusing on hypertension as the health outcome (HYPGENE study), and we report the associations of cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of hypertension. All HYPGENE subjects (N = 1234) were healthy and normotensive at their first clinic visit. Cases (N = 629) developed hypertension during the follow-up period (mean 8.7 yr), whereas controls (N = 605) remained normotensive (mean follow-up 10.1 yr). Cardiorespiratory fitness was the strongest predictor of the hypertension risk, with each maximal metabolic equivalent unit being associated with a 19% lower risk (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 12-24%). Each baseline BMI unit was associated with a 9% higher hypertension risk (95% CI, 4-13%). However, the association of BMI was greatly attenuated (odds ratio 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99-1.09]) when fitness also was included in the model. The HYPGENE study will provide an excellent resource to address hypotheses regarding the genetic basis of hypertension while taking cardiorespiratory fitness level into account.

  12. Risk factors for breast cancer in the breast cancer risk model study of Guam and Saipan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leon Guerrero, Rachael T; Novotny, Rachel; Wilkens, Lynne R; Chong, Marie; White, Kami K; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Buyum, Arielle; Badowski, Grazyna; Blas-Laguaña, Michelle

    2017-10-01

    Chamorro Pacific Islanders in the Mariana Islands have breast cancer incidence rates similar to, but mortality rates higher than, those of U.S. women. As breast cancer risk factors of women of the Mariana Islands may be unique because of ethnic and cultural differences, we studied established and suspected risk factors for breast cancer in this unstudied population. From 2010-2013, we conducted retrospective case-control study of female breast cancer (104 cases and 185 controls) among women in the Mariana Islands. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each of various lifestyle-related factors from logistic regression of breast cancer, in all women and in pre- and postmenopausal women separately. Tests for interaction of risk factors with ethnicity were based on the Wald statistics for cross-product terms. Of the medical and reproductive factors considered - age at menarche, breastfeeding, number of live births, age at first live birth, hormone use, and menopause - only age at first live birth was confirmed. Age at first live birth, among parous women, was higher among cases (mean 24.9 years) than controls (mean 23.2 years); with increased breast cancer risk (OR=2.53; 95% CI, 1.04-6.19 for age≥30y compared to risk and only in Filipino women. The association with many other established risk factors, such as BMI, hormone use and physical activity, were in the expected direction but were not significant. Associations for family history of breast cancer and alcohol intake were not evident CONCLUSIONS: The results provide a basis for cancer prevention guidance for women in the Mariana Islands. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Illness and risk behaviour in health care students studying abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelin, Martin; Evengård, Birgitta; Palmgren, Helena

    2015-07-01

    The numbers of university students studying abroad increase every year. These students are not tourists as their studies require different types of travel that expose them to different risks. Moreover, health care students (HCSs) may be exposed to even greater risks according to their travel destinations and itineraries. Clearly, research-based pre-travel advice is needed. This study reports on a prospective survey conducted from April 2010 to January 2014 of health care and non-health care students from Swedish universities in Umeå, Stockholm and Gothenburg studying abroad. Of the 393 students included in the study, 85% responded. Over half (55%) were HCSs. Pre-travel health information was received by 79% and information on personal safety by 49% of HCSs. The rate of illness during travel was 52%. Health care students more often travelled to developing regions and were at increased risk for travellers' diarrhoea. One in 10 experienced theft and 3% were involved in traffic accidents. One in five met a new sexual partner during travel and 65% of these practised safe sex. Half of all participants increased their alcohol consumption while abroad; high alcohol consumption was associated with increased risk for being a victim of theft, as well as for meeting a new sexual partner during travel. University authorities are responsible for the safety and well-being of students studying abroad. This study supplies organisers and students with epidemiological data that will help improve pre-travel preparation and increase student awareness of the potential risks associated with studying abroad. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Systematic review of perceptive studies on nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freitas, Mariana Gama de

    2014-01-01

    This present work contains the study of risk perception in different areas of interaction. For it was made an analysis using methodology previously recognized and tested: a systematic review in the search for better understanding of the perception of risk in the nuclear area. Through this study it was possible to understand the potential of the systematic review as a tool for information that encompass the perception of risk as a whole. Making it possible to trace parameters to find out why the world's people have an aversion to certain matters relating to nuclear energy. Considering that if you can understand what drives the people has disgust on nuclear area, it is probably possible to create alternatives to remedy this lack of information and knowledge about the area. Causing the population to realize the benefits that nuclear power brings to people. (author)

  15. Gout in Older Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Bridget Teevan; Köttgen, Anna; Law, Andrew; Grams, Morgan; Baer, Alan N; Coresh, Josef; McAdams-DeMarco, Mara A

    2016-04-01

    It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population-based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63-6.63) increased gout risk in older age. These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Risk Factors For Ectopic Pregnancy : A Case Control Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deshmukh J.S

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question: Which are the risk factors for ectopic pregnancy . Objective: To study the strength of association between hypothesised risk factors and ectopic pregnancy. Study design: Unmatched case- control study. Setting: Government Medical College, Hospital, Nagpur. Participants: 133 cases of ectopic pregnancy and equal number of controls (non pregnant women admitted to study hospital. Study variables : Pelvic inflammatory diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, IUD use at conception , past use of IUD, prior ectopic pregnancy, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of OC pills, induced abortion, spontaneous abortion, infertility and pelvic and abdominal surgery. Statistical analysis: Odds ratios & their 95% CI, Pearson’s chi square test, unconditional logistic regression analysis and population attributable risk proportion. Results : Use of IUD at conception, prior ectopic pregnancy , pelvic inflammatory disease, sexually transmitted diseases, infertility, OC pills use at the time of conception, past use of IUD and induced abortion were found to be significantly associated with ectopic pregnancy. Conclusion: Identification of these risk factors for etopic pregnancy shall help in early detection and appropriate management in an individual case and it may help in devising a comprehensive preventive strategy for ectopic pregnancy

  17. Risk Factors as Major Determinants of Resilience: A Replication Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshel, Yohanan; Kimhi, Shaul; Lahad, Mooli; Leykin, Dmitry; Goroshit, Marina

    2018-03-16

    The present study was conducted in the context of current concerns about replication in psychological research. It claims that risk factors should be regarded as an integral part of the definition of individual resilience, which should be defined in terms of the balance between individual strength or protective factors, and individual vulnerability or risk factors (IND-SVR). Five independent samples, including 3457 Israeli participants, were employed to determine the effects of resilience promoting and resilience suppressing variables on the IND-SVR index of resilience, and on its two components: recovery from adversity, and distress symptoms. Five path analyses were employed for determining the role of distress symptoms as a measure of psychological resilience, as compared to other indices of this resilience. Results indicated the major role of risk factors (distress symptoms) as an integral component of resilience. This role was generally replicated in the five investigated samples. Risk factors are legitimate, valid, and useful parts of the definition of psychological resilience. Resilience research has shifted away from studying individual risk factors to investigating the process through which individuals overcome the hardships they experience. The present data seem to suggest that this shift should be reexamined.

  18. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  19. Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2014-05-29

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

  20. Risk in technical and scientific studies: general introduction to uncertainty management and the concept of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.E.

    2004-01-01

    George Apostolakis (MIT) presented an introduction to the concept of risk and uncertainty management and their use in technical and scientific studies. He noted that Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) provides support to the overall treatment of a system as an integrated socio-technical system. Specifically, QRA aims to answer the questions: - What can go wrong (e.g., accident sequences or scenarios)? - How likely are these sequences or scenarios? - What are the consequences of these sequences or scenarios? The Quantitative Risk Assessment deals with two major types of uncertainty. An assessment requires a 'model of the world', and this preferably would be a deterministic model based on underlying processes. In practice, there are uncertainties in this model of the world relating to variability or randomness that cannot be accounted for directly in a deterministic model and that may require a probabilistic or aleatory model. Both deterministic and aleatory models of the world have assumptions and parameters, and there are 'state-of-knowledge' or epistemic uncertainties associated with these. Sensitivity studies or eliciting expert opinion can be used to address the uncertainties in assumptions, and the level of confidence in parameter values can be characterised using probability distributions (pdfs). Overall, the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is not always clear, and both can be treated mathematically in the same way. Lessons on safety assessments that can be learnt from experience at nuclear power plants are that beliefs about what is important can be wrong if a risk assessment is not performed. Also, precautionary approaches are not always conservative if failure modes are not identified. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that uncertainties will remain despite a quantitative risk assessment: e.g., is the scenario list complete, are the models accepted as reasonable, and are parameter probability distributions representative of

  1. Scaffolding for solving problem in static fluid: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koes-H, Supriyono; Muhardjito, Wijaya, Charisma P.

    2018-01-01

    Problem solving is one of the basic abilities that should be developed from learning physics. However, students still face difficulties in the process of non-routine problem-solving. Efforts are necessary to be taken in order to identify such difficulties and the solutions to solve them. An effort in the form of a diagnosis of students' performance in problem solving can be taken to identify their difficulties, and various instructional scaffolding supports can be utilized to eliminate the difficulties. This case study aimed to describe the students' difficulties in solving static fluid problems and the effort to overcome such difficulties through different scaffolding supports. The research subjects consisted of four 10-grade students of (Public Senior High School) SMAN 4 Malang selected by purposive sampling technique. The data of students' difficulties were collected via think-aloud protocol implemented on students' performance in solving non-routine static fluid problems. Subsequently, combined scaffolding supports were given to the students based on their particular difficulties. The research findings pointed out that there were several conceptual difficulties discovered from the students when solving static fluid problems, i.e. the use of buoyancy force formula, determination of all forces acting on a plane in a fluid, the resultant force on a plane in a fluid, and determination of a plane depth in a fluid. An effort that can be taken to overcome such conceptual difficulties is providing a combination of some appropriate scaffolding supports, namely question prompts with specific domains, simulation, and parallel modeling. The combination can solve students' lack of knowledge and improve their conceptual understanding, as well as help them to find solutions by linking the problems with their prior knowledge. According to the findings, teachers are suggested to diagnose the students' difficulties so that they can provide an appropriate combination of

  2. Perinatal mortality and associated risk factors: a case control study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Perinatal mortality is reported to be five times higher in developing than in developed nations. Little is known about the commonly associated risk factors for perinatal mortality in Southern Nations National Regional State of Ethiopia. METHODS: A case control study for perinatal mortality was conducted in ...

  3. Ruptured uterus in Kano, Nigeria - study of risk factors | Omole ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This is a comparative prospective study of the risk factors for ruptured uterus in Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria, between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2005. Forty six women with ruptured uterus (cases) were compared with two hundred and thirty women who delivered without ruptured uterus ...

  4. Original Article Studies on Prevalence and Risk Factors for Hepatitis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-12-20

    Dec 20, 2011 ... Risk factors such as blood transfusion was 32.0% among male ... females. Unfortunately, the prevalence of HBV appears high among the studied ... form of both acute and chronic viral hepatitis ... of expression for this disease, at this phase the .... Alcohol consumption .... Hepatitis B virus Infection in China.

  5. Risk factors of kernicterus; a study in 312 icteric neonates

    OpenAIRE

    Behjati Ardakani S; Nikkhah A; Sedaghat M

    2007-01-01

    Background: Kernicterus, also known as bilirubin encephalopathy, is a neurologic syndrome resulting from the deposition of unconjugated bilirubin in the basal ganglia and brainstem nuclei. Indirect bilirubin is toxic for brain. Neurologic dysfunction (BIND) that include acute phase (hyperbilirubin encephalopathy) and chronic phase (Kernicterus) resulting from hyperbilirubinemia and disruption of blood brain barrier. In this study, the association between bilirubin encephalopathy and risk fact...

  6. Epidemiological study of risk factors in pediatric asthma

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EL-HAKIM

    Methods: This cross sectional study involved 206 asthmatic children, 5 to 15 years old. They were enrolled from the School ... exercise-induced asthma while 64.6% stated that emotional stress triggered their symptoms. ... Keywords: asthma severity; asthma triggers; children; residence; risk factors; smoking; social status.

  7. Criminal Victimization and Crime Risk Perception: A Multilevel Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Silvia; Roccato, Michele; Vieno, Alessio

    2013-01-01

    In a national sample of the Italian population, surveyed four times between October 2002 and January 2007 (N = 2,008), we performed a multilevel longitudinal study aimed at predicting the increase in crime risk perception as a function of three families of independent variables, respectively lying at the within individual level (direct…

  8. Homocysteine and venous thrombosis : studies into risk and therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, Huub Pieter Jan

    2006-01-01

    Homocysteine is a risk factor for venous thrombosis. Elevated concentrations can be treated with folic acid, vitamin B6 and vitamin B12. The main study (chapter 9) in this thesis is a randomized placebo-controlled trial in which patients with a first event of deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary

  9. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  10. Genetic risk of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment: a familial aggregation study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Go, S.L.; Hoyng, C.B.; Klaver, C.C.W.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the magnitude of the genetic risk of nonsyndromic rhegmatogenous retinal detachments (RRDs) in a familial aggregation study. DESIGN: Two hundred three consecutive patients with RRD and 461 controls without RRD were ascertained at the Department of Ophthalmology of the

  11. Genetic risk of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment a familial aggregation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.L. Go (Sioe Lie); C. Hoyng (Carel); C.C.W. Klaver (Caroline)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractObjective: To investigate the magnitude of the genetic risk of nonsyndromic rhegmatogenous retinal detachments (RRDs) in a familial aggregation study. Design: Two hundred three consecutive patients with RRD and 461 controls without RRD were ascertained at the Department of Ophthalmology

  12. Risk factors of knee osteoarthritis, WHO-ILAR-COPCORD study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barghamdi M

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available "nBackground: To evaluate the association between age, sex, BMI, waist/hip ratio, smoking, religion, ethnicity, education and knee osteoarthritis. "nMethods: Eligible subjects were randomly included from participants of Tehran COPCORD study, of whom 480 subjects with knee osteoarthritis were compared to 490 subjects without (case-control study. Using a questionnaire developed by COPCORD group (Asia & Oceania, we enquired about the risk factors of knee osteoarthritis i.e. age, sex, BMI, Waist/Hip ratio, religion, ethnicity, education and smoking. Knee osteoarthritis was defined using ACR criteria. Each knee was unit of analysis using GEE technique to evaluate these associations. "nResults: Age (OR; 1.096; CI95%: 1.091-1.1; P: 0.00 and sex (OR; 2.85; CI95%: 2.49-3.28; P: 0.00 showed significant association with knee osteoarthritis. Overweight (OR; 1.81; CI95%: 1.28-2.55; P: 0.00 and obesity (OR; 3.3; CI95%: 2.34-4.66; P: 0.00 both showed higher risk for knee osteoarthritis. The association between waist/hip ratio and knee osteoarthritis showed an OR of 5.28, CI95%: 0.89-31.44; P: 0.07. However, this association was only borderline significant. People with different religion or ethnicity and smokers had no extra risks for knee osteoarthritis. Higher education is a protective factor for knee osteoarthritis as people who had university education compared to people with no/primary education showed a lower risk for knee osteoarthritis (OR; 0.54; CI95%: 0.38-0.78; P: 0.00. "nConclusions: Our study confirmed that elderly, females, overweight and obese people are at higher risk to develop knee osteoarthritis as found in western societies. Higher education is a protective factor against knee osteoarthritis. Ethnicity, religion and smoking showed no extra risk of knee osteoarthritis.

  13. Study on the possibility of measurement of individual risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Ayako; Fujimoto, Junzo; Takeda, Daisuke; Yamazaki, Tomoyuki

    2009-01-01

    In industry, because of retirement of postwar baby-boom generation and decreasing labor accident by improvement in facilities, diminished worker's risk perception is concerned about. Although hazard prediction activity (KY: Kiken-Yochi) is carried out for improvement of workers' risk perception in sites, it is get into a rut not to estimate the effects of the activity. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of measuring and estimating individual inherent risk perception not depending on the experiences and knowledge, and to confirm the effects of the experiences and knowledge on one's risk perception. Eleven subjects were requested to detect the hazards and to estimate the results and the extents of damage in the three films (1: working at an office (all subjects had the experience), 2: feeding at the GS (gas station) (half of them had the experience), 3: overhauling a valve (no one had the experience)) that were included in some hazards. The rate of hazards detection and the accuracies of 5 categories, that were hazards, results, damage of human, damage of objects or facilities and coping, were calculated. The experience of feeding had effects on the rate of hazards detection and some of the accuracies at the film of feeding at the GS. Also, all of indices were significantly lower at the firm of overhauling a valve than the firm of working at an office. These results showed that the experiences and knowledge were affected on one's risk perception. Meanwhile, the similarity of the tendency to the rate of hazards detection and the accuracies between 2 firms except for the firm of feeding was found by means of the ordinal correlation. The result showed that it will be able to measure the individual inherent risk perception from the number of hazards detection and the depth of the context. The future issues are discussed for developing the method to evaluate the risk perception. (author)

  14. Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

  15. [Risk factors for Parkinson disease: an epidemiologic study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Duarte; Garrett, Carolina

    2010-01-01

    The etiology of Parkinson's disease (PD) remains in a certain part unknown. Both genetic susceptibility and environmental factors are sometimes considered to be putative contributors to its origin. Recent epidemiologic studies have focused on the possible role of environmental risk factors present during adult life or aging, once pure genetic forms of PD are rare. The purpose of this study was to investigate possible environmental and familial risk factors for PD. We performed a hospital based case-control study using 88 PD patients with neurologist confirmed diagnostic, and 176 sex, age, and residence similar controls. Several possible risk factors were evaluated related to life style, past history, family history, occupational history and other exposures to potential neurotoxin agents. Statistical differences, using a 95% confidence interval, were observed in positive family history of PD (p = 0,002), occupation category (p = 0,001), rural living (p = 0,037), living/working near a industry (p = 0,017), exposure to pesticides, herbicides and in-secticides (p coffee consumption (p = 0,036) and tea consumption (p = 0,001). Sex and age adjusted logistic regression showed as potential risk factors, a positive family history of PD (odds ratio [OR] = 9,996; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2,19-45,597), blue collar occupations (OR = 3,967; 95% CI = 1,670-9,426), exposure to pesticides, herbicides and insecticides (OR = 2,619 ; 95% CI = 1,170-5,862). An inverse relationship was found between tea consumption and the risk of PD (OR = 0,356; 95% CI = 0,174-0,727). The results of the study show that both familial and environmental factors may contribute to the development of PD. Like other studies suggest, PD is of unknown, but presumably multifactorial etiology.

  16. Engineered nanomaterial risk. Lessons learnt from completed nanotoxicology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnston, Helinor; Pojana, Giulio; Zuin, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    PARTICLE_RISK was one of the first multidisciplinary projects funded by the European Commission's Framework Programme that was responsible for evaluating the implications of nanomaterial (NM) exposure on human health. This project was the basis for this review which identifies the challenges...... and identifying the limitations and failings of existing research. We have reflected on what commonly encountered challenges exist and explored how these issues may be resolved. In particular, the following is discussed (i) NM selection (ii) NM physico-chemical characterisation; (iii) NM dispersion; (iv...... that exist within the assessment of NM risk. We have retrospectively reflected on the findings of completed nanotoxicology studies to consider what progress and advances have been made within the risk assessment of NMs, as well as discussing the direction that nanotoxicology research is taking...

  17. Risk informed decision making - a pre-study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2004-04-01

    Examples of risk-informed decisions are establishing maintenance programmes, optimising inspection policies and justifying plant modifications, and revising technical specifications. Applications in daily situations can be such as accepting or rejecting exemptions from technical specifications. The aim of this pre-study was to identify the status of risk-informed decision making at Swedish and Finnish nuclear power plants and nuclear safety authorities. Responses to a questionnaire were obtained either by interviews or by e-mail from two Swedish and two Finnish NPPs, SKI and STUK. The development of a risk-informed decision procedure based on decision analytic ideas is worth recommending. A clear documentation format is a part of such procedure. In order to serve as a basis for final decision, the documentation should include clearly defined decision criteria, qualification of PSA model for the issue under analysis, description of most important uncertainties and assumptions. (au)

  18. Study on risk insight for additional ILRT interval extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, M. R.; Hong, S. Y.; Kim, M. K.; Chung, B. S.; Oh, H. C.

    2005-01-01

    In U.S., the containment Integrated Leakage Rate Test (ILRT) interval was extended from 3 times per 10 years to once per 10 years based on NUREG-1493 'Performance-Based Containment Leak-Test Program' in 1995. In September, 2001, ILRT interval was extended up to once per 15 years based on Nuclear Energy Industry (NEI) provisional guidance 'Interim Guidance for Performing Risk Impact Assessments In Support of One-Time Extensions for Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Test Surveillance Intervals'. In Korea, the containment ILRT was performed with 5 year interval. But, in MOST(Ministry of Science and Technology) Notice 2004-15 'Standard for the Leak- Rate Test of the Nuclear Reactor Containment', the extension of the ILRT interval to once per 10 year can be allowed if some conditions are met. So, the safety analysis for the extension of Yonggwang Nuclear (YGN) Unit 1 and 2 ILRT interval extension to once per 10 years was completed based on the methodology in NUREG-1493. But, during review process by regulatory body, KINS, it was required that some various risk insight or index for risk analysis should be developed. So, we began to study NEI interim report for 15 year ILRT interval extension. As previous analysis based on NUREG-1493, MACCS II (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) computer code was used for the risk analysis of the population, and the population dose was selected as a reference index for the risk evaluation

  19. Study of Systemic Risk Involved in Mutual Funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Kishore C.; Dash, Monika

    Systemic risk, may be defined as the risk that contaminates to the whole system, consisting of many interacting agents that fail one after another. These agents, in an economic context, could be firms, banks, funds, or other financial institutions. Systemic risk is a macroscopic property of a system which emerges due to the nonlinear interaction of agents on a microscopic level. A stock market itself is a system in which there are many sub-systems, like Dowjones, Nifty, Sensex, Nasdaq, Nikkei and other market indices in global perspective. In Indian market, subsystems may be like Sensex, Nifty, BSE200, Bankex, smallcap index, midcap index, S&P CNX 500 and many others. Similarly there are many mutual funds, which have their own portfolio of different stocks, bonds etc. We have attempted to study the systemic risk involved in a fund as a macroscopic object with regard to its microscopic components as different stocks in its portfolio. It is observed that fund managers do manage to reduce the systemic risk just like we take precautions to control the spread of an epidemic.

  20. Basic principles and results of the German risk study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.; Bayer, A.

    1980-01-01

    In June 1976 the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology had commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit to write the German Risk Study, the first part of which has now been completed after three years of work and has been publicized recently. The German Risk Study is an attempt to define the societal risk posed by accidents in nuclear power plants under conditions in Germany. For this purpose, the accident rates and the resultant health hazards were determined. By adopting most of the basic premises and methods of the American Rasmussen Study, the German study is to allow a comparison to be made with the results of that study. The calculations were based on 19 sites with a total of 25 nuclear generating units presently in operation, under construction or in the licensing procedure in the Federal Republic of Germany. The technical studies were conducted on a 1300 MW PWR as the representative example. The results show that the decisive contributions are made by uncontrolled minor loss-of-coolant accidents and by failures of power supply (emergency power case). Large loss-of-coolant accidents do not play a role. The study also shows the decisive safety function of the containment. (orig.) [de

  1. Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

  2. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  3. Postoperative infection risk after splenectomy: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmparas, Galinos; Lamb, Alexander W; Lee, Debora; Nguyen, Brandon; Eng, Jamie; Bloom, Matthew B; Ley, Eric J

    2015-05-01

    Splenectomy is associated with a life-long risk for overwhelming infections. The risk for early post-operative infectious complications following traumatic and elective splenectomy is, however, understudied. This investigation aimed to determine if splenectomy increases the risk for post-operative infections. This was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data on patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) between 1/2011 and 7/2013 investigating the risk for infectious complications in patients undergoing a splenectomy compared with those undergoing any other abdominal surgery. During the 30-month study period, a total of 1884 patients were admitted to the SICU. Of those, 33 (2%) had a splenectomy and 493 (26%) had an abdominal surgery. The two groups were well balanced for age, APACHE IV score >20, and past medical history, including diabetes mellitus, cardiac history, renal failure or immunosuppression. Patients undergoing splenectomy were more likely to have sustained a traumatic injury (30% vs. 7%, p splenectomy was associated with increased risk for infectious complications (49% vs. 29%, Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) [95% CI]: 2.7 [1.3, 5.6], p = 0.01), including intra-abdominal abscess (9% vs. 3%, AOR [95% CI]: 4.3 [1.1, 16.2], p = 0.03). On a subgroup analysis, there were no differences between traumatic and elective splenectomy with regards to overall infectious complications (50% vs. 46%, p = 0.84), although, abdominal abscess developed only in those who had an elective splenectomy (0% vs. 12%, p = 0.55). Splenectomy increases the risk for post-operative infectious complications. Further studies identifying strategies to decrease the associated morbidity are necessary. Copyright © 2015 IJS Publishing Group Limited. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Quantifying pathogen risks associated with potable reuse: A risk assessment case study for Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoueyan, Erfaneh; Ahmad, Sajjad; Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Pecson, Brian; Gerrity, Daniel

    2017-08-01

    This study evaluated the reliability and equivalency of three different potable reuse paradigms: (1) surface water augmentation via de facto reuse with conventional wastewater treatment; (2) surface water augmentation via planned indirect potable reuse (IPR) with ultrafiltration, pre-ozone, biological activated carbon (BAC), and post-ozone; and (3) direct potable reuse (DPR) with ultrafiltration, ozone, BAC, and UV disinfection. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to (1) quantify the risk of infection from Cryptosporidium oocysts; (2) compare the risks associated with different potable reuse systems under optimal and sub-optimal conditions; and (3) identify critical model/operational parameters based on sensitivity analyses. The annual risks of infection associated with the de facto and planned IPR systems were generally consistent with those of conventional drinking water systems [mean of (9.4 ± 0.3) × 10 -5 to (4.5 ± 0.1) × 10 -4 ], while DPR was clearly superior [mean of (6.1 ± 67) × 10 -9 during sub-optimal operation]. Because the advanced treatment train in the planned IPR system was highly effective in reducing Cryptosporidium concentrations, the associated risks were generally dominated by the pathogen loading already present in the surface water. As a result, risks generally decreased with higher recycled water contributions (RWCs). Advanced treatment failures were generally inconsequential either due to the robustness of the advanced treatment train (i.e., DPR) or resiliency provided by the environmental buffer (i.e., planned IPR). Storage time in the environmental buffer was important for the de facto reuse system, and the model indicated a critical storage time of approximately 105 days. Storage times shorter than the critical value resulted in significant increases in risk. The conclusions from this study can be used to inform regulatory decision making and aid in the development of design or operational

  5. German risk study on nuclear power plants. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albertz, V.; Gueldner, W.; Hoemke, P.; Hoertner, H.; Lindauer, E.; Linden, J. von; Preischl, W.; Reichart, G.; Roehrs, W.

    1980-01-01

    This appendix discusses those studies which were carried out in phase A of the German Risk Study on the following problems: occurrence frequencies of initiating events, evaluation of the reactor pressure vessel, failure rates and failure probabilities for components, probabilities for human error. The appendix describes the general procedure used in determining these parameters. In addition, it gives the individual values used and the sources employed to determine these values. (orig.) [de

  6. Social Amplification of Risk and Crisis Communication Planing - Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanciugelu, I.; Frunzaru, V.; Armas, I.; Duntzer, A.; Stan, S.

    2012-04-01

    Risk management has become a dominant concern of public policy and the ability of government to anticipate the strength and focus of public concerns remains weak. The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) was designed to assist in this endeavor. It aims to facilitate a greater understanding of the social processes that can mediate between a hazard event and its consequences. SARF identifies categories of mediator/moderator that intervene between risk event and its consequences and suggests a causal and temporal sequence in which they act. Information flows first through various sources and then channels, triggering social stations of amplification, initiating individual station of amplification and precipitating behavioral reactions. The International Risk Governance Council Framework is an interdisciplinary and multilevel approach, linking risk management and risk assessment sphere through communication. This study aims to identify categories of mediator/moderator that intervene between the risk event and its consequences, using a survey on earthquake risk perception addressing population of Bucharest city. Romania has a unique seismic profile in Europe, being the country with the biggest surface affected in case of a serious earthquake. Considering the development of the urban area that took place in the last two decades and the growing number of inhabitants, Bucharest is the largest city in Romania and is exposed to extensive damages in case of an earthquake. The sociological survey has been conducted in December 2009 on a representative sample of the Bucharest population aged 18 and over (N=1376) using one stage sampling design. We used a stratified sample method shearing the investigated populations in six layers according to the six sectors of Bucharest. The respondents were selected using random digit dialling method (RDD) and the questionnaires were administered by research staff with computer assisted telephone interviewing method (CATI). The

  7. Studies on health risks to persons exposed to plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voelz, G.L.; Stebbings, J.H. Jr.; Healy, J.W.; Hempelmann, L.H.

    1979-01-01

    Two studies on Los Alamos workers exposed to plutonium have shown no increase in cancers of the lung, bone, and liver, three principal cancers of interest following plutonium deposition. A clinical study of 26 workers exposed 32 years ago shows no cases of cancer other than two skin cancers that were excised successfully. A mortality study of 224 workers, all persons with estimated deposition of 10 nCi or moe in 1974, showed no excess of mortality due to any cause. No bone or liver cancers were present, while one death due to lung cancer was observed as compared to an expected three cases. These negative findings on such small groups are not able to prove or disprove the validity of commonly used risk estimates as recommended in the 1972 BEIR and 1977 UNSCEAR reports, but the data do indicate that much higher risk estimates are not warranted

  8. Studies on health risks to persons exposed to plutonium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voelz, G.L.; Stebbings, J.H. Jr.; Healy, J.W.; Hempelmann, L.H.

    1979-01-01

    Two studies on Los Alamos workers exposed to plutonium have shown no increase in cancers of the lung, bone, and liver, three principal cancers of interest following plutonium deposition. A clinical study of 26 workers exposed 32 years ago shows no cases of cancer other than two skin cancers that were excised successfully. A mortality study of 224 workers, all persons with estimated deposition of 10 nCi or moe in 1974, showed no excess of mortality due to any cause. No bone or liver cancers were present, while one death due to lung cancer was observed as compared to an expected three cases. These negative findings on such small groups are not able to prove or disprove the validity of commonly used risk estimates as recommended in the 1972 BEIR and 1977 UNSCEAR reports, but the data do indicate that much higher risk estimates are not warranted.

  9. A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

  10. Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Anne; Thevoz, Anne-Laure; Ramelet, Anne-Sylvie

    2015-02-01

    Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further

  11. Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Risk factors for neurocysticercosis: A study from Northwest India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohit Girotra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Neurocysticercosis (NCC is a common cause of epilepsy in the low- and middle-income countries. The risk factors for NCC vary from region to region. Aims: To study the risk factors NCC among patients with NCC and compare with age-and gender-matched controls without NCC. Setting and Design: Hospital-based case-control study. Materials and Methods: A total of 214 subjects were studied (109 NCC patients and 105 age- and gender-matched controls without NCC. The participants were selected from neurology and medical wards of a tertiary referral hospital in Northwest India. They were interviewed by trained medical interns using a questionnaire. Results: Patients with NCC were more likely to dispose garbage close to water source (P = 0.01, eat nonvegetarian food (P < 0.001, and often eat in restaurants (P < 0.001. Pigs were seen more in and around the NCC patient′s houses than the control subjects residential areas (P = 0.001. A total of 15% of the NCC subjects lived close to slaughter houses, while only 2.7% of the control group stayed near a slaughter house (P = 0.002. Conclusions: Unhygienic practices, nonvegetarian food, and eating in restaurants were the risk factors for NCC in this study. There is an opportunity for prevention of NCC using public education.

  13. Dietary habits and stomach cancer risk in the JACC Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokui, Noritaka; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Hoshiyama, Yoshiharu; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kondo, Takaaki; Kikuchi, Shogo; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Hayakawa, Norihiko; Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2005-06-01

    Despite a declining incidence, stomach cancer is still a dominant cancer in Japan. The association between dietary habits and stomach cancer risk was investigated in a large prospective study in Japan. Data were obtained using a self-administered questionnaire from 1988 through 1990. Food frequency questionnaire was used to evaluate the consumption of 33 selected food items. Proportional hazard model was used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of stomach cancer for different levels of the dietary intakes. A western style breakfast showed an inverse association with stomach cancer risk in males (HR=0.49, 95% CI: 0.35-0.70). Women who consumed liver three to four times per week and more than once per day had a significant increased risk, respectively (HR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.12-3.63, HR=3.16, 95% CI: 1.16-8.62 ). A clear dose-response relationship between the intake of liver and stomach cancer risk was observed. We found no association between stomach cancer mortality and the consumption of fruit such as mandarin orange, and vegetables such as carrots and spinach in both men and women. The consumption of high salt foods such as miso soup and pickles was also not significantly associated with the mortality of stomach cancer in both sexes. This prospective study suggested that a western-style breakfast is associated with a lower risk of stomach cancer, although some differences in the association were seen between men and women.

  14. "I don't get it." Response difficulties in answering political attitude questions in Voting Advice Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamoen, N.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314011951; Holleman, B.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/183083547

    2017-01-01

    Study 1 is a think-aloud study among 60 VAA users. The SPSS datafile lists the questions and the verbalizations coresponding to comprehension problems and their categorization. Study 2 is an analysis of all answers provided by over 350,000 respondents during the Municipal Elections of 2014. These

  15. Welding, a risk factor of lung cancer: the ICARE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matrat, Mireille; Guida, Florence; Mattei, Francesca; Cénée, Sylvie; Cyr, Diane; Févotte, Joëlle; Sanchez, Marie; Menvielle, Gwenn; Radoï, Loredana; Schmaus, Annie; Woronoff, Anne-Sophie; Luce, Danièle; Stücker, Isabelle

    2016-04-01

    We investigated the relationship between lung cancer and occupational exposure to welding activity in ICARE, a population-based case-control study. Analyses were restricted to men (2276 cases, 2780 controls). Welding exposure was assessed through detailed questionnaires, including lifelong occupational history. ORs were computed using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for lifelong cigarette smoking and occupational exposure to asbestos. Among the regular welders, welding was associated with a risk of lung cancer (OR=1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.5), which increased with the duration (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.9 when duration >10 years), and was maximum 10-20 years since last welding. The risk was more pronounced in case of gas welding (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.3), when the workpiece was covered by paint, grease, or other substances (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.4) and when it was cleaned with chemical substances before welding. No statistically significant increase in lung cancer risk was observed among occasional welders. Although these results should be confirmed, we showed that type of welding and mode of workpiece preparation are important determinants of the lung cancer risk in regular welders. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. German risk study on nuclear power stations. Phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-11-01

    The German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Stations is concerned with investigations of accidents in nuclear facilities and their associated risks. These investigations are undertaken on behalf of the federal Minister of Research and Technology. They have been broken down into two phases (Phase A and Phase B). The results of Phase A were published in 1979 (GRS 79). This report contains a summary of the investigations relating to Phase B. After an introduction setting out the basic principles and aim of the study, a general review will be given of the most important results. The course of the investigations and the results have already been published in a Technical Report (GRS 89). (author)

  17. Modelling of protective actions in the German Risk Study (FRG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkart, A.K.

    1981-01-01

    An emergency response model for nuclear accidents has to allow for a great number of widely different emergency conditions. In addition, it should be compatible with the pertinent laws, regulations, ordinances, guidelines, criteria and reference levels. The German (FRG) guidelines are basic and flexible rather than precise, many decisions being left to the emergency management. In the Risk Study these decisions had to be anticipated. After a brief discussion of the basis of the emergency response model employed in the German Risk Study (FRG), the essential requirements to be met are listed. The main part of the paper deals with the rationale and specification of protective actions. As a result of the calculations the numbers of persons and sizes of areas involved in protective actions are presented. The last section deals with the variation of input data. (author)

  18. Anybody can do Value at Risk: A Nonparametric Teaching Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J Powell

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Value at Risk (VaR has become a benchmark methodology among investors and banks for measuring market risk. Commercially available modelling packages can be both expensive and inflexible, thereby restricting their use by academic researchers and teachers. Usingnonparametric methodology, this paper provides a step-by-step teaching study on how to use Excel to construct a VaR spreadsheet for an individual asset as well as for a portfolio. This can benefit financial modelling teachers by providing them with a readily useable teaching study on how to model VaR, as well as benefit researchers by showing them how to construct an inexpensive and flexible VaR model.

  19. A Clinical Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation in a Biracial Prospective Cohort (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study)

    OpenAIRE

    Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Crow, Richard; Ambrose, Marietta; Alonso, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    A risk score for AF has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study; however the applicability of this risk score, derived from whites, to predict new-onset AF in non-whites is uncertain. Therefore, we developed a 10-year risk score for new-onset AF using risk factors commonly measured in clinical practice using 14,546 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective community-based cohort of blacks and whites in the United States. During 10 years of follow-up, 5...

  20. Brain function and structure and risk for incident diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancks, Michael P; Alonso, Alvaro; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Mosley, Thomas H; Selvin, Elizabeth; Pankow, James S

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes is prospectively associated with cognitive decline. Whether lower cognitive function and worse brain structure are prospectively associated with incident diabetes is unclear. We analyzed data for 10,133 individuals with cognitive function testing (1990-1992) and 1212 individuals with brain magnetic resonance imaging (1993-1994) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. We estimated hazard ratios for incident diabetes through 2014 after adjustment for traditional diabetes risk factors and cohort attrition. Higher level of baseline cognitive function was associated with lower risk for diabetes (per 1 standard deviation, hazard ratio = 0.94; 95% confidence interval = 0.90, 0.98). This association did not persist after accounting for baseline glucose level, case ascertainment methods, and cohort attrition. No association was observed between any brain magnetic resonance imaging measure and incident diabetes. This is one of the first studies to prospectively evaluate the association between both cognitive function and brain structure and the incidence of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk factors for gallbladder cancer: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Kajal; Sreenivas, V; Velpandian, T; Kapil, Umesh; Garg, Pramod Kumar

    2013-04-01

    Risk factors for gallbladder cancer (GBC) except gallstones are not well known. The objective was to study the risk factors for GBC. In a case-control study, 200 patients with GBC, 200 healthy controls and 200 gallstones patients as diseased controls were included prospectively. The risk factors studied were related to socioeconomic profile, life style, reproduction, diet and bile acids. On comparing GBC patients (mean age 51.7 years; 130 females) with healthy controls, risk factors were chemical exposure [odd ratios (OR): 7.0 (2.7-18.2); p < 0.001)], family history of gallstones [OR: 5.3 (1.5-18.9); p < 0.01)], tobacco [OR: 4.1 (1.8-9.7); p < 0.001)], fried foods [OR: 3.1 (1.7-5.6); p < 0.001], joint family [OR: 3.2 (1.7-6.2); p < 0.001], long interval between meals [OR: 1.4 (1.2-1.6); p < 0.001] and residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 3.3 (1.8-6.2); p < 0.001]. On comparing GBC cases with gallstone controls, risk factors were female gender [OR: 2.4 (1.3-4.3); p = 0.004], residence in Gangetic belt [OR: 2.3 (1.2-4.4); p = 0.012], fried foods [OR: 2.5 (1.4-4.4); p < 0.001], diabetes [OR: 2.7 (1.2-6.4); p = 0.02)], tobacco [OR 3.8 (1.7-8.1); p < 0.001)] and joint family [OR: 2.1 (1.2-3.4); p = 0.004]. The ratio of secondary to primary bile acids was significantly higher in GBC cases than gallstone controls (20.8 vs. 0.44). Fried foods, tobacco, chemical exposure, family history of gallstones, residence in Gangetic belt and secondary bile acids were significant risk factors for GBC. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  2. Measuring adolescents’ exposure to victimization: The Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Helen L.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Wertz, Jasmin; Gray, Rebecca; Newbury, Joanne; Ambler, Antony; Zavos, Helena; Danese, Andrea; Mill, Jonathan; Odgers, Candice L.; Pariante, Carmine; Wong, Chloe C.; Arseneault, Louise

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents mutlilevel findings on adolescents’ victimization exposure from a large longitudinal cohort of twins. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, an epidemiological study of 2,232 children (1,116 twin pairs) followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). To assess adolescent victimization we combined best practices in survey research on victimization with optimal approaches to measuring life stress and traumatic experiences, and introduce a reliable system for coding severe victimization. One in three children experienced at least one type of severe victimization during adolescence (crime victimization, peer/sibling victimization, internet/mobile phone victimization, sexual victimization, family violence, maltreatment, or neglect), and most types of victimization were more prevalent amongst children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Exposure to multiple victimization types was common, as was re-victimization; over half of those physically maltreated in childhood were also exposed to severe physical violence in adolescence. Biometric twin analyses revealed that environmental factors had the greatest influence on most types of victimization, while severe physical maltreatment from caregivers during adolescence was predominantly influenced by heritable factors. The findings from this study showcase how distinct levels of victimization measurement can be harmonized in large-scale studies of health and development. PMID:26535933

  3. How Do Chinese ESL Learners Recognize English Words during a Reading Test? A Comparison with Romance-Language-Speaking ESL Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongli; Suen, Hoi K.

    2015-01-01

    This study examines how Chinese ESL learners recognize English words while responding to a multiple-choice reading test as compared to Romance-language-speaking ESL learners. Four adult Chinese ESL learners and three adult Romance-language-speaking ESL learners participated in a think-aloud study with the Michigan English Language Assessment…

  4. Reading L2 Russian: The Challenges of the Russian-English Dictionary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, William J.

    2014-01-01

    This descriptive study examines when and how students use Russian-English dictionaries while reading informational texts in Russian and what success they have with word lookup. The study uses introspective verbal protocols (i.e., think-alouds) to follow how readers construct meaning from two texts while reading them for a limited time first…

  5. Self-Regulated Learning Using Multimedia Programs in Dentistry Postgraduate Students: A Multimethod Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloret, Miguel; Aguila, Estela; Lloret, Alejandro

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to study the effect of a multimedia computing program on the production of activities and self-regulated learning processes in 18 students of the Dentistry postdegree (Celaya, Mexico). A multi-method design (quasi-experimental, pretest-post-test and qualitative: Think aloud protocol) was used. Self-regulated…

  6. Reading Sacred Texts in the Classroom: The Alignment between Students and Their Teacher's Interpretive Stances When Reading the Hebrew Bible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassenfeld, Ziva R.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the voices of students interpreting Hebrew Bible texts in one fourth-grade classroom. Through think-alouds on the Biblical text with each student, exit interviews, teacher interviews, and classroom observations, this study found that those students whose interpretive stances were more aligned with the teacher's were given…

  7. Types and sequences of self-regulated reading of low-achieving adolescents in relation to reading task achievement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Milliano, Ilona; van Gelderen, Amos; Sleegers, P.J.C.

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between types and sequences of self-regulated reading activities in task-oriented reading with quality of task achievement of 51 low-achieving adolescents (Grade 8). The study used think aloud combined with video observations to analyse the students' approach of

  8. Glosses, Comprehension, and Strategy Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Myong Hee

    2005-01-01

    This study, using both qualitative and quantitative measures, investigates how different types of gloss conditions affect Korean college students' reading comprehension. One hundred and six undergraduates at a university in Korea participated in the study. Twelve were assigned to think aloud, and the rest (ninety-four) took part in the main study…

  9. Learning Support Assessment Study of a Computer Simulation for the Development of Microbial Identification Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tristan E. Johnson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a study that examined how microbiology students construct knowledge of bacterial identification while using a computer simulation. The purpose of this study was to understand how the simulation affects the cognitive processing of students during thinking, problem solving, and learning about bacterial identification and to determine how the simulation facilitates the learning of a domain-specific problem-solving strategy. As part of an upper-division microbiology course, five students participated in several simulation assignments. The data were collected using think-aloud protocol and video action logs as the students used the simulation. The analysis revealed two major themes that determined the performance of the students: Simulation Usage—how the students used the software features and Problem-Solving Strategy Development—the strategy level students started with and the skill level they achieved when they completed their use of the simulation. Several conclusions emerged from the analysis of the data: (i The simulation affects various aspects of cognitive processing by creating an environment that makes it possible to practice the application of a problem-solving strategy. The simulation was used as an environment that allowed students to practice the cognitive skills required to solve an unknown. (ii Identibacter (the computer simulation may be considered to be a cognitive tool to facilitate the learning of a bacterial identification problem-solving strategy. (iii The simulation characteristics did support student learning of a problem-solving strategy. (iv Students demonstrated problem-solving strategy development specific to bacterial identification. (v Participants demonstrated an improved performance from their repeated use of the simulation.

  10. Risk policies and risk perceptions: a comparative study of environmental health risk policy and perception in six European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bröer, C.; Moerman, G.; Spruijt, P.; van Poll, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the influence that health risk policies have on the citizens’ perceptions of those health risks. Previously, detailed mixed methods research revealed that noise annoyance policies shaped noise perception. This idea is now applied to nine different environmental health risks in

  11. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

  12. Study on practical application of risk informed inservice inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Chikahiro; Machida, Hideo; Takeda, Shuhei; Miyata, Koichi; Nishino, Shoichiro

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes pilot study relevant to the application of risk informed inservice inspection (RI-ISI) to class 1 piping systems in a Japanese typical BWR5 plant. The benefits of making use of risk information are improvement in plant safety, quality of inspection and explanation of security activities in nuclear power plants. The current RI-ISI procedures and rules were developed to take advantage of lessons learned from PSA data and piping failure experiences, and are expected to rationalize of security activities for plant operation and maintenance. To introduce RI-ISI, it is necessary to collaborate with industry, academia and government. Development of the technical basis is one of the key issues to become practical of RI-ISI programs. (author)

  13. German risk study 'nuclear power plants, phase B'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1989-01-01

    The results of the German risk study 'Nuclear power plants, phase B' indicate that an accident in a nuclear power plant which cannot be managed by the safety systems according to design, is extremely improbable: Its probability is at about 3 to 100,000 per year and plant. Even if the safety systems fail, emergency measures can be effected in a nuclear power plant to prevent an accident. These in-plant emergency measures diminish the probability of a core meltdown to about 4 to 1,000,000 per year and plant. Hence, the accident risk is greatly reduced. The information given by the author are to smooth the emotional edge in the discussion about the safety of nuclear power plants. (orig.) [de

  14. A Matched Case-Control Study of Risk Factors for Breast Cancer Risk in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nguyen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Vietnam has a low age-standardized incidence of breast cancer, but the incidence is rising rapidly with economic development. We report data from a matched case-control study of risk factors for breast cancer in the largest cancer hospital in Vietnam. Methods. 492 incident breast cancer cases unselected for family history or age at diagnosis and 1306 control women age 25–75 were recruited from the National Cancer Hospital (BVK, Hanoi. Structured interviews were conducted and pathology data was centrally reported at the National Cancer Hospital of Vietnam, in Hanoi. Results. Our analysis included 294 matched pairs. Mean age at diagnosis was 46.7 years. Lower mean parity, older age at first parity, increasing weight and BMI at age 18, and increasing BMI at diagnosis were positively correlated with breast cancer cases compared to controls. Age at first menarche and duration of breastfeeding were not statistically different between cases and controls. Conclusions. In this study we demonstrate that breast cancer in Vietnam is associated with some but not all of the published risk factors from Western populations. Our data is consistent with other studies of breast cancer in Asian populations.

  15. Objectives and present status of the German risk evaluation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.; Heuser, F.W.

    1977-01-01

    For the German risk evaluation study, analogous to the Rasmussen report (WASH--1400), embarked upon in June 1976, the Kernkraftwerk Biblis B serves as the plant of reference. The first interim results are available for various sub-headings of the study. The main finding seems to be the decisive importance of the containment in limiting the accident consequences even in those cases where, on account of postulated failure of safety systems, the melt down of the reactor core is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Telephone Care Management of Fall Risk:: A Feasibility Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelan, Elizabeth A; Pence, Maureen; Williams, Barbara; MacCornack, Frederick A

    2017-03-01

    Care management has been found to be more effective than usual care for some chronic conditions, but few studies have tested care management for prevention of elder falls. This study aimed to assess the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of telephone care management of older adults presenting for medical attention due to a fall. The setting was an independent practice association in western Washington serving 1,300 Medicare Advantage-insured patients. Patients aged ≥65 years treated for a fall in an emergency department or their primary care provider's office were contacted via telephone by a care manager within 48 hours of their fall-related visit and invited to participate in a telephone-administered interview to identify modifiable fall risk factors and receive recommendations and follow-up to address identified risk factors. Data from care manager records, patient medical records, and healthcare claims for the first 6 months (November 2009-April 2010) of program implementation were analyzed in 2011. The feasibility of screening and management of fall risk factors over the telephone and the effect on medically attended falls were assessed. Twenty-two patients eligible for fall care management were reached and administered the protocol. Administration took 15-20 minutes and integrated easily with the care manager's other responsibilities. Follow-through on recommendations varied, from 45% for those for whom exercise participation was recommended to 100% for other recommendations. No medically attended falls occurred over 6 months of follow-up. Telephone care management of fall risk appears feasible and may reduce falls requiring medical attention. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how South African students talk about sexual risk and responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Riet, Mary; Nicholson, Tamaryn Jane

    2014-01-01

    Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative study used focus groups and interviews with a sample of 28 tertiary level students and 7 peri-urban youth. The constructions of risk intersected with raced and gendered narratives around sexual risk and responsibility. These constructions were used by the participants to assign and displace responsibility for the risks of HIV and pregnancy, rendering some groups immune to these risks. This constitutes a form of stigmatisation and also has implications for participants' prevention practices.

  18. A study on the risk perception of light pollution and the process of social amplification of risk in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Hee; Choi, Jae Wook; Lee, Eunil; Cho, Yong Min; Ahn, Hyung Rae

    2015-05-01

    In this study, the risk perception level of each light pollution type was analyzed, and the effects of the variables (e.g., psychometric paradigm factor, trust in the government, etc.) on the process of the increase in the risk perception were analyzed. For the sample population (1096 persons) in Korea, the risk perception levels of each light pollution type and other environmental and health risk factors were compared, and the relative magnitude was examined. In addition, to test which variables affect the group with high-risk perception of each light pollution type, a logistic regression analysis was performed. For the group with highest risk perception of light pollution, the odds ratios (OR) of all psychometric paradigms (excluding controllability) increased compared to those of the group with low-risk perception. Additionally, the level showing the acquisition of information from the media and the recollection level of media criticism on each light pollution type showed a statistically significant increase. Especially, the risk perception of light trespass increased as trust in the government decreased. The significance of this study includes the finding that the public's risk perception of light pollution was significantly affected by the psychometric paradigm factors. Moreover, this study analyzed the differences of the variables that affect the increase in the risk perception of each light pollution type and provided a theoretical framework that can practically reflect the strategy for the risk communication of light pollution.

  19. Factors influencing the clinical decision-making of midwives: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daemers, Darie O A; van Limbeek, Evelien B M; Wijnen, Hennie A A; Nieuwenhuijze, Marianne J; de Vries, Raymond G

    2017-10-06

    Although midwives make clinical decisions that have an impact on the health and well-being of mothers and babies, little is known about how they make those decisions. Wide variation in intrapartum decisions to refer women to obstetrician-led care suggests that midwives' decisions are based on more than the evidence based medicine (EBM) model - i.e. clinical evidence, midwife's expertise, and woman's values - alone. With this study we aimed to explore the factors that influence clinical decision-making of midwives who work independently. We used a qualitative approach, conducting in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 11 Dutch primary care midwives. Data collection took place between May and September 2015. The interviews were semi-structured, using written vignettes to solicit midwives' clinical decision-making processes (Think Aloud method). We performed thematic analysis on the transcripts. We identified five themes that influenced clinical decision-making: the pregnant woman as a whole person, sources of knowledge, the midwife as a whole person, the collaboration between maternity care professionals, and the organisation of care. Regarding the midwife, her decisions were shaped not only by her experience, intuition, and personal circumstances, but also by her attitudes about physiology, woman-centredness, shared decision-making, and collaboration with other professionals. The nature of the local collaboration between maternity care professionals and locally-developed protocols dominated midwives' clinical decision-making. When midwives and obstetricians had different philosophies of care and different practice styles, their collaborative efforts were challenged. Midwives' clinical decision-making is a more varied and complex process than the EBM framework suggests. If midwives are to succeed in their role as promoters and protectors of physiological pregnancy and birth, they need to understand how clinical decisions in a multidisciplinary context are

  20. Ferritin levels and risk of heart failure-the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Odilson M; Gonçalves, Alexandra; Nadruz, Wilson; Claggett, Brian; Couper, David; Eckfeldt, John H; Pankow, James S; Anker, Stefan D; Solomon, Scott D

    2017-03-01

    Severe iron overload is associated with cardiac damage, while iron deficiency has been related to worse outcomes in subjects with heart failure (HF). This study investigated the relationship between ferritin, a marker of iron status, and the incidence of HF in a community-based cohort. We examined 1063 participants who were free of heart failure from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study in whom ferritin serum levels were measured at baseline (1987-1989). The participants (mean age 52.7 ± 5.5 years, 62% women), were categorized in low (200 ng/mL in women and >300 ng/mL in men; n = 247) ferritin levels. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between ferritin and incident HF. After 21 ± 4.6 years of follow-up, HF occurred in 144 (13.5%) participants. When compared with participants with normal ferritin levels, participants with low ferritin levels had a higher risk of HF [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-4.35; P = 0.02] as did those with high ferritin levels (HR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.01-3.25; P = 0.04), after adjusting for potential confounders. Notably, low ferritin levels remained associated with incident HF even after excluding subjects with anaemia (HR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.11-4.68; P = 0.03). Derangements in iron metabolism, either low or high ferritin serum levels, were associated with higher risk of incident HF in a general population, even without concurrent anaemia. These findings suggest that iron imbalance might play a role in the development of HF. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

  1. Problem Solving and the Development of Expertise in Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Fredrick B.

    This study investigated novice and expert problem solving behavior in management to examine the role of domain specific knowledge on problem solving processes. Forty-one middle level marketing managers in a large petrochemical organization provided think aloud protocols in response to two hypothetical management scenarios. Protocol analysis…

  2. Toward a Theory of Web-Mediated Knowledge Synthesis: How Advanced Learners Used the Web to Construct Knowledge about Climate Change Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSchryver, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation utilized a multiple case study design to explore how advanced learners synthesize information about ill-structured topics when reading-to-learn and reading-to-do on the Web. Eight graduate students provided data in the form of think-alouds, interviews, screen video, digital trails, and task artifacts. Data analysis was based on…

  3. First Impressions Matter: Navigating Graphic Novels Utilizing Linguistic, Visual, and Spatial Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Laura M.; Meyer, Carla K.

    2016-01-01

    Graphic novels in the K-12 classroom are most often used to motivate marginalized readers because of the lower text load and assumption of easy reading. This assumption has thus far been unexplored by reading research. This qualitative multiple-case study utilized think-aloud protocols in a new attention-mapping activity to better understand how…

  4. Influence of the context of learning a language on the strategic competence of children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Pichon-Vorstman, E.M.M.; de Swart, H.E.; Vorstman, J.A.S.; van den Bergh, H.H.

    2010-01-01

    The present study was set up to evaluate the extent to which the context in which a foreign language is learned can influence the strategic competence of children. To assess this we conducted a series of think aloud protocols with 101 children. We compared children who have learned an additional

  5. Using Embedded Visual Coding to Support Contextualization of Historical Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Christine

    2016-01-01

    This mixed-method study examines the think-aloud protocols of 48 randomly assigned undergraduate students to understand what effect embedding a visual coding system, based on reliable visual cues for establishing historical time period, would have on novice history students' ability to contextualize historic documents. Results indicate that using…

  6. Not on the Same Page: Undergraduates' Information Retrieval in Electronic and Print Books

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Selinda Adelle; Hoffmann, Kristin; Dawson, Diane

    2010-01-01

    Academic libraries are increasingly collecting e-books, but little research has investigated how students use e-books compared to print texts. This study used a prompted think-aloud method to gain an understanding of the information retrieval behavior of students in both formats. Qualitative analysis identified themes that will inform instruction…

  7. The Effect of Context on the EFL Learners' Idiom Processing Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohani, Gholamreza; Ketabi, Saeed; Tavakoli, Mansoor

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated the effect of context on the strategies the EFL learners utilized to process idioms. To do so, ten Iranian intermediate EFL learners were randomly assigned to two groups who then attended a think-aloud session. The 5 subjects in the first group were exposed to an animated cartoon including 23 unfamiliar idioms while…

  8. The Role of Reading Strategies in Integrated L2 Writing Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plakans, Lia

    2009-01-01

    Integrated second-language writing tasks elicit writing performances that involve other abilities such as reading or listening. Thus, understanding the role of these other abilities is necessary for interpreting performance on such tasks. This study used an inductive analysis of think-aloud protocol data and interviews to uncover the reading…

  9. L2 Reading in Thailand: Vocational College Students' Application of Reading Strategies to Their Reading of English Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasemsap, Bharani; Lee, Hugo Yu-Hsiu

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to explore the application of reading strategies to the reading of English texts by Thai vocational college students. Data were collected via questionnaire surveys, think-aloud experiments and semi-structured interviews. The research results reveal different typologies of reading strategies adopted by lower and higher level English…

  10. Twelve Middle-School Teachers' Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Deborah Sardo

    1988-01-01

    Case studies described 12 middle-school teachers' instructional yearly, unit, weekly, and daily planning on the basis of a background questionnaire, interview protocols, an analysis of written plans, think-aloud typescripts, and a questionnaire. A process model best characterized teachers long-term planning, while an agenda-formulation model fit…

  11. Lexical Inferencing in Reading L2 Russian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, William J.

    2012-01-01

    This study describes how intermediate-level first language English readers of Russian as a second language deploy lexical inferencing and other strategies when reading informational texts. Fifth-semester students of Russian performed think-alouds while reading two texts; one written for the general adult reader, and the other meant for school-age…

  12. Researching trust in Wikipedia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucassen, T.; Schraagen, Johannes Martinus Cornelis

    2011-01-01

    As the use of collaborative online encyclopedias such as Wikipedia grows, so does the need for research on how users evaluate its credibility. In this paper we compare three experimental approaches to study trust in Wikipedia, namely think aloud, eye-tracking, and online questionnaires. The

  13. Rhetorical, Metacognitive, and Cognitive Strategies in Teacher Candidates' Essay Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz Larenas, Claudio; Ramos Leiva, Lucía; Ortiz Navarrete, Mabel

    2017-01-01

    This paper reports on a study about the rhetoric, metacognitive, and cognitive strategies pre-service teachers use before and after a process-based writing intervention when completing an argumentative essay. The data were collected through two think-aloud protocols while 21 Chilean English as a foreign language pre-service teachers completed an…

  14. Interactive Digital Textbooks and Engagement: A Learning Strategies Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bikowski, Dawn; Casal, J. Elliott

    2018-01-01

    This mixed-methods study explored non-native English speaking students' learning processes and engagement as they used a customized interactive digital textbook housed on a mobile device. Think aloud protocols, surveys of anticipated and actual engagement with the digital textbook, reflective journals, and member checking constituted data…

  15. Examining Associations between Reading Motivation and Inference Generation beyond Reading Comprehension Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between reading motivation and inference generation while reading. Undergraduate participants (N = 69) read two science articles while thinking aloud, completed a standardized reading comprehension assessment, and self reported their habitual reading motivation. Findings indicate that…

  16. Do Procedures for Verbal Reporting of Thinking Have to Be Reactive? A Meta-Analysis and Recommendations for Best Reporting Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mark C.; Ericsson, K. Anders; Best, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Since its establishment, psychology has struggled to find valid methods for studying thoughts and subjective experiences. Thirty years ago, Ericsson and Simon (1980) proposed that participants can give concurrent verbal expression to their thoughts (think aloud) while completing tasks without changing objectively measurable performance (accuracy).…

  17. Developing Expertise in Military Communications Planning: Do Verbal Reports Change with Experience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIlroy, Rich C.; Stanton, Neville A.; Remington, Bob

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate novices learning to use a mission planning system. Novice participants received one training session, followed by three test sessions. This was compared to expert performance. During the test sessions, all participants were required to "think aloud", based on Ericsson and Simon's (Ericsson, K.A. and…

  18. Translation among Symbolic Representations in Problem-Solving. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shavelson, Richard J.; And Others

    This study investigated the relationships among the symbolic representation of problems given to students to solve, the mental representations they use to solve the problems, and the accuracy of their solutions. Twenty eleventh-grade science students were asked to think aloud as they solved problems on the ideal gas laws. The problems were…

  19. Investigating Teachers' Exploration of a Professional Development Website: An Innovative Approach to Understanding the Factors that Motivate Teachers to Use Internet-Based Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Pamela; Willows, Dale

    2014-01-01

    This qualitative study examined an innovative methodology, combining screen capture technology and a retrospective think aloud, for exploring the use of Internet-based resources by elementary teachers. Pre-service and in-service teachers explored "The Balanced Literacy Diet," a free, interactive, and evidenced-informed professional…

  20. The effect of nonhuman’s external regulation on detecting the natural development process of young children’s self-regulation during learning tasks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agina, Adel Masaud; Agina, Adel M.; Kommers, Petrus A.M.; Steehouder, M.F.

    2011-01-01

    The present study explored the effect of nonhuman’s external regulation on children’s natural development of self-regulation and the effect of each natural developed class on children’s spontaneous thinking aloud and satisfaction. The Aginian’s methodology (Agina et al., 2011a) that relied on

  1. Reading Comprehension Profiles of High-Functioning Students on the Autism Spectrum: A Grounded Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Pamela; Carnahan, Christina R.; Jacobs, Jennifer A.

    2012-01-01

    Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, this study sought to understand what influences reading comprehension and how meaning is made from text among high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Using a think-aloud procedure, 13 individuals ages 7-13 with ASD read 16 passages at their instructional reading level.…

  2. Identifying the Barriers to Using Games and Simulations in Education: Creating a Valid and Reliable Survey Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justice, Lenora Jean

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a valid and reliable instrument to measure teacher perceived barriers to the adoption of games and simulations in instruction. Previous research, interviews with educators, a focus group, an expert review, and a think aloud protocol were used to design a survey instrument. After finalization, the survey was…

  3. Using Drawing Technology to Assess Students' Visualizations of Chemical Reaction Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsin-Yi; Quintana, Chris; Krajcik, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we investigated how students used a drawing tool to visualize their ideas of chemical reaction processes. We interviewed 30 students using thinking-aloud and retrospective methods and provided them with a drawing tool. We identified four types of connections the students made as they used the tool: drawing on existing knowledge,…

  4. Interactivity, Information Processing, and Learning on the World Wide Web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremayne, Mark; Dunwoody, Sharon

    2001-01-01

    Examines the role of interactivity in the presentation of science news on the World Wide Web. Proposes and tests a model of interactive information processing that suggests that characteristics of users and Web sites influence interactivity, which influences knowledge acquisition. Describes use of a think-aloud method to study participants' mental…

  5. Pre-Planning Civic Action: An Analysis of Civic Leaders' Problem Solving Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Jason

    2016-01-01

    This study explores the civic thinking heuristics that civic leaders use when pre-planning action. Across eight think-aloud protocols, findings suggest that three heuristics are employed. "Frame alignment" refers to the process of harmonizing personal beliefs and interests with the particulars of a civic action issue to find personal…

  6. Active Learning Strategies in Face-to-Face Courses. IDEA Paper #53

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millis, Barbara J.

    2012-01-01

    As numerous research studies suggest, teachers who desire increased student learning should adopt active learning. This article explores the research, defines active learning, discusses its value, offers suggestions for implementing it, and provides six concrete examples of active learning approaches: Thinking-Aloud Pair Problem-Solving;…

  7. Proficiency as a Variable in Gulf EFL Students' Employment of Reading Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endley, Martin J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper reports a study of the reading strategies used by twelve Arabic-speaking undergraduates at a major Gulf university when reading texts in English. The procedure employed was a think-aloud protocol followed by a semi-structured interview. Three research questions were addressed: (a) What are the primary comprehension problems encountered…

  8. Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P.

    2017-01-01

    The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk\\ud perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that\\ud it is possible to define a benchmark ‘real’ risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk\\ud perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly\\ud problematic when there are high leve...

  9. Diabetes and Prediabetes and Risk of Hospitalization: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Andrea L C; Kalyani, Rita R; Golden, Sherita; Stearns, Sally C; Wruck, Lisa; Yeh, Hsin Chieh; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

    2016-05-01

    To examine the magnitude and types of hospitalizations among persons with prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. This study included 13,522 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age 57 years, 56% female, 24% black, 18% with prediabetes, 4% with undiagnosed diabetes, 9% with diagnosed diabetes) with follow-up in 1990-2011 for hospitalizations. Participants were categorized by diabetes/HbA1c status: without diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c prediabetes, 5.7 to prediabetes had 1.3 times higher rates of hospitalization than those without diabetes and HbA1c prediabetes are at a significantly elevated risk of hospitalization compared with those without diabetes. Substantial excess rates of hospitalizations in persons with diagnosed diabetes were for endocrine, infection, and iatrogenic/injury causes, which may be preventable with improved diabetes care. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  10. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

  11. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  12. Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

  13. Risk factor for phlebitis: a questionnaire study of nurses' perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragana Milutinović

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available AbstractObjectives: to assess nurses' perceptions of risk factors for the development of phlebitis, with a special focus on the perception of phlebitic potentials of some infusion medications and solutions.Method: a cross-sectional questionnaire study, which included a sample of 102 nurses.Results: Nurses recognized some factors that may reduce the incidence of phlebitis; however, more than half of the nurses were unaware that the material and diameter of the cannula can affect the incidence rate of phlebitis. Furthermore,underlying disease and high pH of medications or solutions were identified as potential risk factors, whereas low pH and low osmolality were not. Nurses identified Vancomycin and Benzylpenicillin antibiotics with the strongest phlebitic potential. Among other medications and intravenous fluids, Aminophylline, Amiodaronehydrochloride and Potassium chloride 7.4% were identified as potentially causing phlebitis.Conclusion: predisposing factors for phlebitis relating to patients and administered therapy were identified by nurses, while some cannula related risk factors, in particular its physicochemical properties and the time for cannula replacement, were not fully perceived.

  14. Risk factor for phlebitis: a questionnaire study of nurses' perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milutinović, Dragana; Simin, Dragana; Zec, Davor

    2015-01-01

    to assess nurses' perceptions of risk factors for the development of phlebitis, with a special focus on the perception of phlebitic potentials of some infusion medications and solutions. a cross-sectional questionnaire study, which included a sample of 102 nurses. Nurses recognized some factors that may reduce the incidence of phlebitis; however, more than half of the nurses were unaware that the material and diameter of the cannula can affect the incidence rate of phlebitis. Furthermore,underlying disease and high pH of medications or solutions were identified as potential risk factors, whereas low pH and low osmolality were not. Nurses identified Vancomycin and Benzylpenicillin antibiotics with the strongest phlebitic potential. Among other medications and intravenous fluids, Aminophylline, Amiodaronehydrochloride and Potassium chloride 7.4% were identified as potentially causing phlebitis. predisposing factors for phlebitis relating to patients and administered therapy were identified by nurses, while some cannula related risk factors, in particular its physicochemical properties and the time for cannula replacement, were not fully perceived.

  15. Behavioral control and reward sensitivity in adolescents’ risk taking behavior : A longitudinal TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

  16. Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior : A Longitudinal TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

  17. Usability Study of a Computer-Based Self-Management System for Older Adults with Chronic Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Da

    2012-01-01

    Background Usability can influence patients’ acceptance and adoption of a health information technology. However, little research has been conducted to study the usability of a self-management health care system, especially one geared toward elderly patients. Objective This usability study evaluated a new computer-based self-management system interface for older adults with chronic diseases, using a paper prototype approach. Methods Fifty older adults with different chronic diseases participated. Two usability evaluation methods were involved: (1) a heuristics evaluation and (2) end-user testing with a think-aloud testing method, audio recording, videotaping, and interviewing. A set of usability metrics was employed to determine the overall system usability, including task incompletion rate, task completion time, frequency of error, frequency of help, satisfaction, perceived usefulness, and perceived ease of use. Interviews were used to elicit participants’ comments on the system design. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the qualitative data were analyzed for content. Results The participants were able to perform the predesigned self-management tasks with the current system design and they expressed mostly positive responses about the perceived usability measures regarding the system interface. However, the heuristics evaluation, performance measures, and interviews revealed a number of usability problems related to system navigation, information search and interpretation, information presentation, and readability. Design recommendations for further system interface modifications were discussed. Conclusions This study verified the usability of the self-management system developed for older adults with chronic diseases. Also, we demonstrated that our usability evaluation approach could be used to quickly and effectively identify usability problems in a health care information system at an early stage of the system development

  18. Risk Factors for Anemia in Pregnancy: A Case Control Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutuja Pundkar

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Aim of the study was to find the risk factors leading to Anemia in pregnancy. The main objective was to study the various sociodemographic factors leading to anemia. And to assess the knowledge about anemia among study participants. Material and methods: The present Case control study was carried out at Primary Health Centre, to determine the risk factors leading to anemia in pregnancy. A total of 308 pregnant females were registered. Among them two groups were made, group I cases and group II controls. Each group had 50 cases each. Laboratory test were done and females having hemoglobin less than 11mg/dl were considered anemic. Anemic females were considered cases and females having Hb >11mg/dl were considered controls. Data analysis was done using SPSS software. Results: The overall mean haemoglobin (Hb was 11.55g/dL in controls, whereas it was seen that among the cases it was 9.58g/dL.It would seem that diet, family size, education, social class, gravida and parity are associated with anemia in pregnancy. Conclusion: After adjusting for all the possible covariates there seems to be significant association between Hb levels and age group, education level, family size, diet, gravida and parity.

  19. A Study Of Risk Factors For Low Birth Weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deswal B S

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Research question: What is the extent of low weight babies born in hospitals and its association with some maternal factors? Objectives: 1. To find an overall prevalence of low birth weight babies amongst hospital births in Meerut city. 2. To identify and quantify the effects of some risk factors for low birth weight. Setting: District women Hospital of Meerut city of western U.P. Study Design: Hospital based matched case-control study. Sample size: 491 low birth weight babies as ‘cases’ and an equal number of babies of normal birth weight in ‘control’ group matched for maternal age, sex of baby, birth order and institution of delivery. Study variables: Socio-economic Status: maternal biological factors including obstetric history: antenatal factors: nutritional factors: history of abortion: toxaemia of pregnancy etc. Results: Overall proportion of low birth weight babies was found to be 21.8% amongst hospital live births and 30.9% born to mothers aged below 30 years of age. Low maternal weight, under nutrition, lack of antenatal care, short inter-pregnancy interval, toxacmia of pregnancy were independent factors increasing the risk of low birth weight significantly. Conclusions: The study suggested that a substantial proportion of low birth weight babies can be averted by improving maternal nutritional status including anemic condition, birth spacing and proper antenatal care.

  20. The German risk study for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    In August 1979 results of the ''German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants'' were published. The Main Report, in which approach and results of the study are documented, has been available since the end of 1979. It was the charter of the study - which was performed on behalf of the Minister of Research and Technology of the Federal Republic of Germany - to apply as far as possible the methods of the US Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) to German plant and site conditions. A direct transfer of the results was not deemed justified, mainly for the following reasons: There is quite a number of differences between the design of the reference plants of WASH-1400 (Surry-1, Peach Bottom-2) and German nuclear power plants. The mean population density in the Federal Republic of Germany is more than ten times of the United States. In the vicinity of nuclear power plants the ratio is about 3:1. To calculate the collective risk resulting from reactor accidents, a total of 25 plants at 19 different sites in the Federal Republic of Germany were considered. This included all plants with 600 MW or more electrical output, which were in operation, under construction or in licensing process by July 1, 1977. As an approximation to the real situation, it has been assumed that all 25 plants are technically identical to the reference plant

  1. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2015-01-01

    Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; padulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

  2. Effective Project Risk management in Micro Companies : Case study for Persona Optima Iceland ehf.

    OpenAIRE

    Bražinskaitė, Justina

    2011-01-01

    This study is meant to be a guide for micro companies regarding effective project risk management. The main purpose of this thesis is to introduce project risk management and build a user-friendly managerial model toward effective project risk management in micro companies. The research is based on a case company Persona Optima Iceland ehf. analysis. The study investigates risk management, uncertainties and risks in projects, project risk management, its models and particularities in orde...

  3. Prospective Study of Fasting Blood Glucose and Intracerebral Hemorrhagic Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Cheng; Li, Guohong; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Gurol, Mahmut E; Yuan, Xiaodong; Hui, Ying; Ruan, Chunyu; Vaidya, Anand; Wang, Yanxiu; Wu, Shouling; Gao, Xiang

    2018-01-01

    Although diabetes mellitus is an established independent risk factor for ischemic stroke, the association between fasting blood glucose and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is limited and inconsistent. The objective of the current study was to examine the potential impact of long-term fasting blood glucose concentration on subsequent risk of ICH. This prospective study included 96 110 participants of the Kailuan study, living in Kailuan community, Tangshan city, China, who were free of cardiovascular diseases and cancer at baseline (2006). Fasting blood glucose concentration was measured in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. Updated cumulative average fasting blood glucose concentration was used as primary exposure of the current study. Incident ICH from 2006 to 2015 was confirmed by review of medical records. During 817 531 person-years of follow-up, we identified 755 incident ICH cases. The nadir risk of ICH was observed at fasting blood glucose concentration of 5.3 mmol/L. The adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ICH were 1.59 (95% CI, 1.26-2.02) for diabetes mellitus or fasting blood glucose ≥7.00 mmol/L, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.02-1.69) for impaired fasting blood glucose (fasting blood glucose, 6.10-6.99 mmol/L), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.78-1.22) for fasting blood glucose 5.60 to 6.09 mmol/L, and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.23-3.38) for hypoglycemia (fasting blood glucose, fasting blood glucose 4.00 to 5.59 mmol/L. The results persisted after excluding individuals who used hypoglycemic, aspirin, antihypertensive agents, or anticoagulants, and those with intracerebral hemorrhagic cases occurred in the first 2 years of follow-up. In this large community-based cohort, low (fasting blood glucose concentrations were associated with higher risk of incident ICH, relative to fasting blood glucose concentrations of 4.00 to 6.09 mmol/L. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. Bankruptcy Risk in IFRS Era. Case Study on BSE Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin BURCA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The path of international accounting convergence is, unanimously accepted by all decision makers of the international financial reporting environment, as being the best solution towards reducing differences in international accounting. The idea of core standards is embraced by our country, too, the proof being the last legislative changes in Romanian accounting framework. This study aims to highlight a small part of the economic consequences of the decision to extend the mandatory use of IFRS standards to the statutory financial statements, also. More exactly we will underline the changes registered at the level of bankruptcy risk measureson a samples of companies listed on BSE.

  5. Risk-based Comparative Study of Fluid Power Pitch Concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liniger, Jesper; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; N. Soltani, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    Proper functioning of the pitch system is essential to both normal operation and safety critical shut down of modern multi megawatt wind turbines. Several studies on field failure rates for such turbines show that pitch systems are a major contributor to failures which entails an increased risk....... Thus, more reliable and safe concepts are needed. A review of patents and patent applications covering fluid power pitch concepts, reveals that many propose closed-type hydraulic systems. This paper proposes a closed-type concept with a bootstrap reservoir. In contrary to a conventional system where...

  6. Credit Risk Management. A study on risk integration in the bank lending process.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sleddens, Linda Elsa Wilhelmina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk management has been a topic much written about in the last decade. Substantial credit risk losses can undermine the stability of the bank. Both banks and national bank supervisors have realized the need to invest in credit risk management. Partly driven by regulations such as the Basel

  7. Main results of the german risk study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1988-01-01

    Work on the German Risk Study is under contract of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology. The reference plant for the analysis is the Biblis nuclear power plant, Unit B, a KWU pressurized water reactor of the 1300 MWel class. The plant is in operation since 1976. First results on Phase A of the study have been published in 1979. Investigations on Phase B have been foreseen to endeepen the analysis. The principal purpose of these investigations is to improve and to optimize the plant's safety features on a more realistic basis. Main objectives of Phase B are: - Completeness of accident event tree analysis taking into account further accident initiating events. - Identification and analyses of accident management measures which are adequate to minimize accidental risk. - improvement of the analysis on an as far as possible realistic basis, thereby taking into account recent results of safety research. The paper deals with the most important results of the plant analyses (level 1 and level 2) which have been performed within the scope of Phases B of the study

  8. Family studies to find rare high risk variants in migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Rikke Dyhr; Christensen, Anne Francke; Olesen, Jes

    2017-12-01

    variants (less than five), while other studies found several possible variants. Not all of them were genome wide significant. Four studies performed follow-up analyses in unrelated cases and controls and calculated odds ratios that supported an association between detected variants and risk of disease. Studies of 11 diseases identified rare variants that segregated fully or to a large degree with the disease in the pedigrees. It is possible to find rare high risk variants for common complex diseases through a family-based approach. One study using a family approach and NGS to find rare variants in migraine has already been published but with strong limitations. More studies are under way.

  9. An empirical study for ranking risk factors using linear assignment: A case study of road construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Foroughi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Road construction projects are considered as the most important governmental issues since there are normally heavy investments required in such projects. There is also shortage of financial resources in governmental budget, which makes the asset allocation more challenging. One primary step in reducing the cost is to determine different risks associated with execution of such project activities. In this study, we present some important risk factors associated with road construction in two levels for a real-world case study of rail-road industry located between two cities of Esfahan and Deligan. The first group of risk factors includes the probability and the effects for various attributes including cost, time, quality and performance. The second group of risk factors includes socio-economical factors as well as political and managerial aspects. The study finds 21 main risk factors as well as 193 sub risk factors. The factors are ranked using groups decision-making method called linear assignment. The preliminary results indicate that the road construction projects could finish faster with better outcome should we carefully consider risk factors and attempt to reduce their impacts.

  10. Risk Management from Corporate and FM Perspectives: Two case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ünver, Kadir; Jensen, Per Anker

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate how Risk Management (RM) is perceived and practiced in Facilities Management (FM) and corporate management and to evaluate the potential benefits of an increased application. Theory: RM is a generic management discipline, but apparently it has not achieved the attention...... as most critical in each company. Both companies could benefit from a more integrated application of RM covering both corporate management and FM. Originality/value: This is among the first descriptive studies looking at RM from both corporate and FM perspectives, which is essential to increase...... it deserves in FM. Application of RM in FM could help to increase the strategic importance and awareness of FM among corporate managers. Approach: A preliminary study with expert interviews was initially conducted followed by a main study with an interview survey in two Danish case companies - a real estate...

  11. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  12. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  13. Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P

    2017-11-01

    The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

  14. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  15. A prospective study of maternal carboxyhemoglobin and preeclampsia risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudra, Carole B.; Williams, Michelle A.; Schiff, Melissa A.; Koenig, Jane Q.; Dills, Russell; Yu, Jianbo

    2009-01-01

    Summary We aimed to measure the relation between early-pregnancy maternal carboxyhemoglobin and subsequent preeclampsia risk. We conducted a nested case-control analysis using data from a western Washington State cohort study (1996–2004). We measured maternal whole blood carboxyhemoglobin in 128 women who developed preeclampsia and 419 normotensive controls (mean gestational age at blood draw, 14.8 weeks). After adjustment for confounders, high (≥1%) versus low (carboxyhemoglobin odds ratios [OR] and 95% confidence intervals [CI] were 4.09 [1.30, 12.9] in parous women, 0.53 [0.23, 1.26] in nulliparous women, and 1.11 [0.55, 2.25] in the overall study population (parity interaction p=0.01). The influence of parity on the association was unexpected. The association between high carboxyhemoglobin and preeclampsia risk in parous women implicates hypoxia at the fetal-maternal interface as a pathogenic mechanism. These results also suggest that the etiology of the disease may differ according to parity. PMID:20078828

  16. How do healthcare consumers process and evaluate comparative healthcare information? A qualitative study using cognitive interviews.

    OpenAIRE

    Damman, O.C.; Hendriks, M.; Rademakers, J.; Delnoij, D.; Groenewegen, P.

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background To date, online public healthcare reports have not been effectively used by consumers. Therefore, we qualitatively examined how healthcare consumers process and evaluate comparative healthcare information on the Internet. Methods Using semi-structured cognitive interviews, interviewees (n = 20) were asked to think aloud and answer questions, as they were prompted with three Dutch web pages providing comparative healthcare information. Results We identified twelve themes fr...

  17. Ubersetzer als Problemloser. Eine qualitative Studie zum Problemloseverhalten von semiprofessionellen Ubersetzern

    OpenAIRE

    Kubiak, Paweł

    2009-01-01

    This book falls under the area of empirical research into the translation process. The focus lies on the problem-solving behaviour of semi-professional translators with the language pair German/Polish. The main corpus of research material are think aloud protocols, i.e. transcribed records of thoughts the subjects had in mind while translating. The data corpus is explored from three perspectives in this publication. The first step aims at synoptically describing the intraindivi...

  18. Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

  19. Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least

  20. After the Liverpool Care Pathway--development of heuristics to guide end of life care for people with dementia: protocol of the ALCP study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, N; Manthorpe, J; Sampson, E L; Iliffe, S

    2015-09-02

    End of life care guidance for people with dementia is lacking and this has been made more problematic in England with the removal of one of the main end of life care guidelines which offered some structure, the Liverpool Care Pathway. This guidance gap may be eased with the development of heuristics (rules of thumb) which offer a fast and frugal form of decision-making. To develop a toolkit of heuristics (rules of thumb) for practitioners to use when caring for people with dementia at the end of life. A mixed-method study using a co-design approach to develop heuristics in three phases. In phase 1, we will conduct at least six focus groups with family carers, health and social care practitioners from both hospital and community care services, using the 'think-aloud' method to understand decision-making processes and to develop a set of heuristics. The focus group topic guide will be developed from the findings of a previous study of 46 interviews of family carers about quality end-of-life care for people with dementia and a review of the literature. A multidisciplinary development team of health and social care practitioners will synthesise the findings from the focus groups to devise and refine a toolkit of heuristics. Phase 2 will test the use of heuristics in practice in five sites: one general practice, one community nursing team, one hospital ward and two palliative care teams working in the community. Phase 3 will evaluate and further refine the toolkit of heuristics through group interviews, online questionnaires and semistructured interviews. This study has received ethical approval from a local NHS research ethics committee (Rec ref: 15/LO/0156). The findings of this study will be presented in peer-reviewed publications and national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. Novice drivers' risky driving behavior, risk perception, and crash risk: findings from the DRIVE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Boufous, Soufiane; Stevenson, Mark; Chen, Huei-Yang; Woodward, Mark; Norton, Robyn

    2009-09-01

    We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.

  2. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  3. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  4. Evidence of lung cancer risk from animal studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, F.T.

    1988-03-01

    Human epidemiological data provide the most important basis for assessing risks of radon exposures. However, additional insight into the nature of exposure-response relationships is provided by animal experimentation and dosimetric determinations. Animal studies have now been conducted for more than 50 years to examine the levels of pollutants in underground mines that were responsible for the respiratory effects observed among miners. This work has emphasized respiratory cancer and the interaction of radon with other agents, such as ore dust, diesel-engine-exhaust fumes and cigarette smoke. The more recent data on radon-daughter inhalation exposures were provided by two American research centers, The University of Rochester (UR) and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), and by the Compagnie Generale des Matieres Nucleaires (COGEMA) laboratory in France. Approximately 2000 mice, 100 rats and 80 dogs were employed in the completed UR studies, begun in the mid 1950s; 800 hamsters, 5000 rats and 100 dogs in the ongoing PNL studies, begun in the late 1960s; and 10,000 rats in the ongoing COGEMA studies, also begun in the late 1960s. More complete updated biological effects, data resulting from chronic radon-daughter inhalation exposures of mice, hamsters, rats and beagle dogs were examined. Emphasis on the carcinogenic effects of radon-decay product exposure, including the influences of radon-daughter exposure rate, unattached fraction and disequilibrium, and co-exposures to other pollutants. Plausible values for the radon (radon-daughter) lifetime lung-cancer risk coefficients are also provided. 13 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  5. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks

  6. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  7. Case Study: University of Anyplace: Strategic Legal Risk Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John T.; Ferguson, Rowan

    2000-01-01

    Considers legal issues and risks faced by a fictional American university as it seeks to establish an operation based in London. Addresses the first step in the process of risk management, the risk review exercise, and provides an explanation of the legal issues involved to allow progression to the second stage in the process (evaluation of the…

  8. The risk of upcoding in casemix systems: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbusch, Paul J M; Oostenbrink, Jan B; Zuurbier, Joost J; Schaepkens, Frans J M

    2007-05-01

    With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the total number of improper Medicare payments for the Prospective Payment system for acute inpatient care (both short term and long term) amounted to US$ 4.8 billion (5.2%). By comparing the casemix systems in the US, Australian and Dutch healthcare systems, this article illustrates why certain casemix systems are more open to the risk of upcoding than other systems. This study identifies various market, control and casemix characteristics determining the weaknesses of a casemix reimbursement system to upcoding. It can be concluded that fewer opportunities for upcoding occur in casemix systems that do not allow for-profit ownership and in which the coder's salary does not depend on the outcome of the classification process. In addition, casemix systems in which the first point in time of registration is at the beginning of the care process and in which there are a limited number of occasions to alter the registration are less vulnerable to the risk of upcoding. Finally, the risk of upcoding is smaller in casemix systems that use classification criteria that are medically meaningful and aligned with clinical practice. Comparing the US, Australian and Dutch systems the following conclusions can be drawn. Given the combined occurrences of for-profit hospitals and the use of the secondary diagnosis criterion to classify DRGs, the US casemix system tends to be more open to upcoding than the Australian system. The strength of the Dutch system is related to the detailed classification scheme, using medically meaningful classification criteria. Nevertheless, the detailed classification scheme also causes a weakness, because of its increased complexity compared with the US and

  9. Study on default setting for risk-informed regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, S.C.; Ha, J.J.; Jung, W.D.; Jeong, K.S.; Han, S.H.

    1998-12-01

    Both performing and validating a detailed risk analysis of a complex system are costly and time-consuming undertakings. With the increased use of probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) in regulatory decision making, both regulated parties and regulators have generally favored the use of defaults, because they can greatly facilitate the process of performing a PSA in the first place as well as the process of reviewing and verifying the PSA. The use of defaults may also ensure more uniform standards of PSA quality. However, regulatory agencies differ in their approaches to the use of default values, and the implications of these differences are not yet well understood. Moreover, large heterogeneity among licensees makes it difficult to set suitable defaults. This study focus on the development of model for setting defaults in order to achieve more applicability of risk-informed regulation. In particular, explored are the effects of different levels of conservatism in setting defaults, and their implications for the crafting of regularity incentives. (author). 17 refs., 1 tab

  10. German risk study for nuclear power plants. Vol. 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bracht, K.F.; Javeri, V.; Keusenhoff, J.; Meier, S.; Roehrs, W.; Scharfe, A.; Tiltmann, M.; Mayinger, F.

    1980-01-01

    This appendix contains the analyses on core melt accidents carried out for the German risk study. These accidents constitute a major portion of the event sequences relevant to the risk. It deals, in particular, with the processes involved in the reactor core melt, the behaviour of the containment vessel including the possible types of failures, and the consequences of possible steam explosions. The investigations were performed for limiting cases for which a complete failure of the emergency core cooling and residual heat removal system is anticipated. Under these conditions, the reactor core melts down and penetrates the reactor pressure vessel bottom. In the course of the following interaction between core melt and concrete foundation, the melt is assumed to come into contact with the sump water. The evaporation of the sump water leads to an overpressure failure of the containment vessel within approximately one day after accident initiation. A destruction of the containment as a consequence of a steam explosion is considered highly unprobable. (orig.) [de

  11. Prospective study of coffee consumption and risk of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sääksjärvi, K; Knekt, P; Rissanen, H; Laaksonen, M A; Reunanen, A; Männistö, S

    2008-07-01

    To examine the prediction of coffee consumption on the incidence of Parkinson's disease. The study population comprised 6710 men and women, aged 50-79 years and free from Parkinson's disease at the baseline. At baseline, enquiries were made about coffee consumption in a self-administered questionnaire as the average number of cups per day. During a 22-year follow-up, 101 incident cases of Parkinson's disease occurred. Parkinson's disease cases were identified through a nationwide registry of patients receiving medication reimbursement, which is based on certificates from neurologist. After adjustments for age, sex, marital status, education, community density, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, body mass index, hypertension and serum cholesterol, the relative risk for subjects drinking 10 or more cups of coffee per day compared with non-drinkers was 0.26 (95% confidence interval 0.07-0.99, P-value for trend=0.18). The association was stronger among overweight persons and among persons with lower serum cholesterol level (P-value for interaction=0.04 and 0.03, respectively). The results support the hypothesis that coffee consumption reduces the risk of Parkinson's disease, but protective effect of coffee may vary by exposure to other factors.

  12. Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

    1993-10-01

    The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

  13. Obesity, physical activity and cancer risks: Results from the Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, Carlos; Bauman, Adrian; Egger, Sam; Sitas, Freddy; Nair-Shalliker, Visalini

    2017-04-01

    Physical activity (PA) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the evidence linking PA with lower cancer risk is inconclusive. We examined the independent and interactive effects of PA and obesity using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy for obesity, on the risk of developing prostate (PC), postmenopausal breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), ovarian (OC) and uterine (UC) cancers. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for cancer specific confounders, in 6831 self-reported cancer cases and 1992 self-reported cancer-free controls from the Cancer Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study, using unconditional logistic regression. For women, BMI was positively associated with UC risk; specifically, obese women (BMI≥30kg/m 2 ) had nearly twice the risk of developing UC compared to women with healthy-BMI-range (risk of developing any cancer type, CRC and PC. In particular, obese men had 37% (OR=1.37;CI:1.11-1.70), 113% (OR=2.13;CI:1.55-2.91) and 51% (OR=1.51;CI:1.17-1.94) higher risks of developing any cancer, CRC and PC respectively, when compared to men with healthy-BMI-range (BMIrisks of CRC, UC and BC. In particular, the highest level of PA (versus nil activity) was associated with reduced risks of CRC (OR=0.60;CI:0.44-0.84) and UC (OR=0.47;CI:0.27-0.80). Reduced risks of BC were associated with low (OR=0.66;CI:0.51-0.86) and moderate (OR=0.72;CI:0.57-0.91) levels of PA. There was no association between PA levels and cancer risks for men. We found no evidence of an interaction between BMI and PA in the CLEAR study. These findings suggest that PA and obesity are independent cancer risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. University Lawyers: A Study of Legal Risk, Risk Management and Role in Work Integrated Learning Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Craig; Klopper, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Work integrated learning (WIL) is in growing demand by multiple stakeholders within the higher education sector in Australia. There are significant and distinct legal risks to universities associated with WIL programmes. University lawyers, along with WIL administrators and university management, are responsible for managing legal risk. This…

  15. Plantar pitted keratolysis: a study from non-risk groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asli Feride Kaptanoglu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Pitted keratolysis is an acquired, superficial bacterial infection of the skin which is characterized by typical malodor and pits in the hyperkeratotic areas of the soles. It is more common in barefooted people in tropical areas, or those who have to wear occlusive shoes, such as soldiers, sailors and athletes. In this study, we evaluated 41 patients who had been diagnosed with plantar pitted keratolysis. The patients were of high socioeconomic status, were office-workers, and most had a university degree. Malodor and plantar hyperhydrosis were the most frequently reported symptoms. The weight-bearing metatarsal parts of the feet were those most affected. Almost half the women in the study gave a history of regular pedicure and foot care in a spa salon. Mean treatment duration was 19 days. All patients were informed about the etiology of the disease, predisposing factors and preventive methods. Recurrences were observed in only 17% of patients during the one year follow-up period. This study emphasizes that even malodorous feet among non-risk city dwellers may be a sign of plantar pitted keratolysis. A study of the real incidence of the disease in a large population-based series is needed.

  16. Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Vollebergh, Wilma A.M.; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    BACKGROUND: Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. PURPOSE: To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among

  17. Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

    2012-01-01

    The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211

  18. Potential risk factors for diabetic neuropathy: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nooraei Mahdi

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diabetes mellitus type II afflicts at least 2 million people in Iran. Neuropathy is one of the most common complications of diabetes and lowers the patient's quality of life. Since neuropathy often leads to ulceration and amputation, we have tried to elucidate the factors that can affect its progression. Methods In this case-control study, 110 diabetic patients were selected from the Shariati Hospital diabetes clinic. Michigan Neuropathic Diabetic Scoring (MNDS was used to differentiate cases from controls. The diagnosis of neuropathy was confirmed by nerve conduction studies (nerve conduction velocity and electromyography. The multiple factors compared between the two groups included consumption of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI, blood pressure, serum lipid level, sex, smoking, method of diabetes control and its quality. Results Statistically significant relationships were found between neuropathy and age, gender, quality of diabetes control and duration of disease (P values in the order: 0.04, 0.04, Conclusion In this study, hyperglycemia was the only modifiable risk factor for diabetic neuropathy. Glycemic control reduces the incidence of neuropathy, slows its progression and improves the diabetic patient's quality of life. More attention must be paid to elderly male diabetic patients with poor diabetes control with regard to regular foot examinations and more practical education.

  19. Valdez air health study - Exposure monitoring and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, D.R.; Mikkelsen, R.

    1991-01-01

    In Valdez, Alaska there is concern about exposure of the public to benzene and other light hydrocarbons emitted during the loading of tankers from the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. As part of an overall risk assessment, the Valdez Air Health Study, a personal, indoor and outdoor air sampling program patterned after EPA's TEMA Study was designed and carried out. A unique feature of the study is that, during sampling periods, SF 6 tracer was released at the terminal site to represent terminal hydrocarbon emissions to provide a basis for directly quantitating any contribution of terminal emissions to personal exposure. Sixty citizens at Valdez were selected to wear vests containing sampling equipment for 24-hour periods summer and winter. At the homes of 30 of the participants simultaneous indoor and outdoor samples for hydrocarbons and tracer were collected during the period that each participant collected personal air samples. The paper reviews the design of the program, details of the procedures used, results of the August, 1990 program and preliminary results from the February-March, 1991 program

  20. Australian Defence Risk Management Framework: A Comparative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-02-01

    disadvantage or gain. There may be a range of possible outcomes associated with an event. Definition 1.3.3 Event An incident or situation, which occurs in a...prohibitive insurance costs. Sometimes, advantages may far outweigh disadvantages making risk more justifiable. The unacceptable risks are...objectives, work culture and risk management approaches. Globalisation and introduction of new technologies have significantly complicated the situation

  1. Risk for unemployment of cancer survivors: A Danish cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Kathrine; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Diderichsen, Finn

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To investigate whether cancer survivors are at an increased risk for unemployment after cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort of 65,510 patients who were part of the workforce in the year before diagnosis and a random sample of 316,925 age and gender-matched controls were followed for up...... that the risk for unemployment was highest amongst persons aged 50-60 years at time of diagnosis. Risk factors for unemployment were found to be manual work, medium income and vocational education. CONCLUSION: Generally, cancer patients were at a small increased risk for unemployment and low socioeconomic...

  2. From field studies to risk management: the Sensib project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercat-Rommens, C.; Renaud, P.

    2004-01-01

    The consequences for the man and the environment of the discharges of nuclear facilities depend on the importance and the nature of the discharges, but also on the environment which receives them. Thus, the impact of a pollution, which is expressed in term of toxicity, risk or economic consequences, varies according to the characteristics of the environment and the use of this environment by the man. The radioecological sensitivity can be defined as the response of the environment to a radioactive pollution. This response is expressed through various indicators: the activity of a radionuclide at a precise moment, a stock of radionuclide in a given environmental compartment or a flux of radionuclide... For a determined discharge, the higher is the response, the more sensitive is the environment. If all the ecosystems appear sensitive, their sensitivity does not concern the same criteria and it is currently difficult to compare these criteria between them; is it more hazardous to have a stock of radioactivity present in a natural space or to have an important but time-limited concentration of radionuclides in a river used for irrigation? The idea of the SENSIB project is to create a standardized tool which makes it possible to represent and to compare with the same scale the sensitivity of various ecosystems. The sensitivity indexes, which will be developed during the project, aim to represent the intensity of the environmental response. These indicators, which are the result of the transfer of the radionuclides in the environment, depend on various intrinsic parameters of the ecosystems (climate, soil, agricultural practises...). The SENSIB project, based on results of field studies conducted by IRSN, aims to develop both a methodology to calculate sensitivity indexes and a radioecological sensitivity scale usable for risk management. (author)

  3. Risk assessment study of fire following earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2013-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemistry enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprises earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  4. Risk assessment study of fire following an earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2014-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemical enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following an earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following an earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprise earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  5. Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia-Gil Maria

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI, measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018 from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years. We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country

  6. Chronic kidney disease and bleeding risk in patients at high cardiovascular risk: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocak, G; Rookmaaker, M B; Algra, A; de Borst, G J; Doevendans, P A; Kappelle, L J; Verhaar, M C; Visseren, F L

    2018-01-01

    Essentials The association between chronic kidney disease and bleeding is unknown. We followed 10 347 subjects at high cardiovascular risk for bleeding events. Chronic kidney disease was associated with a 1.5-fold increased bleeding risk. Especially albuminuria rather than decreased kidney function was associated with bleeding events. Background There are indications that patients with chronic kidney disease have an increased bleeding risk. Objectives To investigate the association between chronic kidney disease and bleeding in patients at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We included 10 347 subjects referred to the University Medical Center Utrecht (the Netherlands) from September 1996 to February 2015 for an outpatient visit with classic risk factors for arterial disease or with symptomatic arterial disease (Second Manifestation of Arterial disease [SMART] cohort). Patients were staged according to the KDIGO guidelines, on the basis of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, and were followed for the occurrence of major hemorrhagic events until March 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for bleeding were calculated with Cox proportional hazards analyses. Results The incidence rate for bleeding in subjects with chronic kidney disease was 8.0 per 1000 person-years and that for subjects without chronic kidney disease was 3.5 per 1000 person-years. Patients with chronic kidney disease (n = 2443) had a 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.2-1.9) increased risk of bleeding as compared with subjects without chronic kidney disease (n = 7904) after adjustment. Subjects with an eGFR of Chronic kidney disease is a risk factor for bleeding in patients with classic risk factors for arterial disease or with symptomatic arterial disease, especially in the presence of albuminuria. © 2017 University Medical Center Utrecht. Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  7. Risk perception and risk management in cloud computing: results from a case study of Swiss companies

    OpenAIRE

    Brender, Nathalie; Markov, Iliya

    2013-01-01

    In today's economic turmoil, the pay-per-use pricing model of cloud computing, its flexibility and scalability and the potential for better security and availability levels are alluring to both SMEs and large enterprises. However, cloud computing is fraught with security risks which need to be carefully evaluated before any engagement in this area. This article elaborates on the most important risks inherent to the cloud such as information security, regulatory compliance, data location, inve...

  8. Prediction of Adulthood Obesity Using Genetic and Childhood Clinical Risk Factors in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyednasrollah, Fatemeh; Mäkelä, Johanna; Pitkänen, Niina; Juonala, Markus; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma; Kelly, Tanika; Li, Changwei; Bazzano, Lydia; Elo, Laura L; Raitakari, Olli T

    2017-06-01

    Obesity is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Early prediction of obesity is essential for prevention. The aim of this study is to assess the use of childhood clinical factors and the genetic risk factors in predicting adulthood obesity using machine learning methods. A total of 2262 participants from the Cardiovascular Risk in YFS (Young Finns Study) were followed up from childhood (age 3-18 years) to adulthood for 31 years. The data were divided into training (n=1625) and validation (n=637) set. The effect of known genetic risk factors (97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) was investigated as a weighted genetic risk score of all 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (WGRS97) or a subset of 19 most significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (WGRS19) using boosting machine learning technique. WGRS97 and WGRS19 were validated using external data (n=369) from BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study). WGRS19 improved the accuracy of predicting adulthood obesity in training (area under the curve [AUC=0.787 versus AUC=0.744, P obesity. Predictive accuracy is highest among young children (3-6 years), whereas among older children (9-18 years) the risk can be identified using childhood clinical factors. The model is helpful in screening children with high risk of developing obesity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. NATO Advanced Study Institute on Insurance and Risk Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Vylder, F; Haezendonck, J

    1986-01-01

    Canadian financial institutions have been in rapid change in the past five years. In response to these changes, the Department of Finance issued a discussion paper: The Regulation of Canadian Financial Institutions, in April 1985, and the government intends to introduce legislation in the fall. This paper studi.es the combinantion of financial institutions from the viewpoint of ruin probability. In risk theory developed to describe insurance companies [1,2,3,4,5J, the ruin probability of a company with initial reserve (capital) u is 6 1 -:;-7;;f3 u 1jJ(u) = H6 e H6 (1) Here,we assume that claims arrive as a Poisson process, and the claim amount is distributed as exponential distribution with expectation liS. 6 is the loading, i.e., premium charged is (1+6) times expected claims. Financial institutions are treated as "insurance companies": the difference between interest charged and interest paid is regarded as premiums, loan defaults are treated as claims.

  10. Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

    2005-04-01

    Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.

  11. Fall Prevention Self-Assessments Via Mobile 3D Visualization Technologies: Community Dwelling Older Adults' Perceptions of Opportunities and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, Julian; Money, Arthur; Atwal, Anita

    2017-06-19

    In the field of occupational therapy, the assistive equipment provision process (AEPP) is a prominent preventive strategy used to promote independent living and to identify and alleviate fall risk factors via the provision of assistive equipment within the home environment. Current practice involves the use of paper-based forms that include 2D measurement guidance diagrams that aim to communicate the precise points and dimensions that must be measured in order to make AEPP assessments. There are, however, issues such as "poor fit" of equipment due to inaccurate measurements taken and recorded, resulting in more than 50% of equipment installed within the home being abandoned by patients. This paper presents a novel 3D measurement aid prototype (3D-MAP) that provides enhanced measurement and assessment guidance to patients via the use of 3D visualization technologies. The purpose of this study was to explore the perceptions of older adults with regard to the barriers and opportunities of using the 3D-MAP application as a tool that enables patient self-delivery of the AEPP. Thirty-three community-dwelling older adults participated in interactive sessions with a bespoke 3D-MAP application utilizing the retrospective think-aloud protocol and semistructured focus group discussions. The system usability scale (SUS) questionnaire was used to evaluate the application's usability. Thematic template analysis was carried out on the SUS item discussions, think-aloud, and semistructured focus group data. The quantitative SUS results revealed that the application may be described as having "marginal-high" and "good" levels of usability, along with strong agreement with items relating to the usability (P=.004) and learnability (Putility with regards to effectiveness, efficiency, accuracy, and reliability of measurements that are recorded using the application and to compare it with 2D measurement guidance leaflets. ©Julian Hamm, Arthur Money, Anita Atwal. Originally published in

  12. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  13. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-04-01

    Risk from retired surplus facilities has always been assumed to be low at the Hanford Site as the facilities are inactive and have few potentials for causing an offsite hazardous material release. However,the fatal accident that occurred in the spring of 1992 in which an employee fell through a deteriorated roof at the 105-F Reactor Building has raised the possibility that retired facilities represent a greater risk than was originally assumed. Therefore, Westinghouse Hanford Company and the US Department of Energy management have determined that facility risk management strategies and programmatic plans should be reevaluated to assure risks are identified and appropriate corrective action plans are developed. To evaluate risk management strategies, accurate risk information about the current and projected condition of the facilities must be developed. This work procedure has been created to address the development of accurate and timely risk information. By using the evaluation results in this procedure, it will be possible to create a prioritized baseline for managing facility risk until all retired surplus facilities are demolished

  14. Case study of ecological risk assessment at an Alaska airport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, J.A.; Foster, T.L.; Zieber, P.A.

    1995-01-01

    An ecological risk assessment was conducted for 10 sites at a remote location that has unique biological resources. Chemicals of concern included petroleum, metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, and dioxins and furans. Risks to 23 species of mammals and birds were evaluated by using toxicity reference values and a hazard quotient approach analogous to the US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) approach for evaluating noncarcinogenic human health effects. Risks to fish and aquatic invertebrates were evaluated using risk-based concentrations for water analogous to the USEPA's water quality criteria. Risks to plants were evaluated using risk-based concentrations for soil. Toxicity reference values and risk-based concentrations were developed by applying uncertainty factors to the highest quality toxicity data available in the literature. Intake rates for wildlife were obtained from the USEPA's wildlife exposure factors handbook, or were estimated using allometric equations. The sizes of wildlife home ranges were compared with the size of each site to determine species- and site-specific exposure frequencies. Indicator chemicals were selected to represent the chemical and toxicological characteristics of petroleum fractions. The species most often at risk were found to be fish and aquatic invertebrates, as well as small-bodied, ground-dwelling or ground-feeding wildlife

  15. COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT -A THEORETICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cican Simona-Iulia

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The complexity, volatility and unpredictability of the current economic environment are a daily reminder that organizations face many risks. The traditional approach, according to which risk is a necessary evil which must be removed, is no longer sufficient and that is why companies nowadays are forced to spend significant resources to manage risks. Risk transparency is what one looks for; therefore, identification and management of risks within an organization become increasingly necessary for success and longevity. Risk approach has a major role in a company’s ability to avoid, reduce and turn risks into opportunities. Enterprise risk management is a new concept that revolutionizes the traditional approach and summarizes risk management in an integrated, comprehensive and strategic system. Studies use several synonyms for enterprise risk management such as integrated risk management, holistic risk management, global risk management and strategic risk management. Enterprise risk management implements at the end of the last century a new way to deal with risks: the holistic approach. This risks approach – i.e. interaction of several types of risks which become increasingly threatening and varied and may cause more damage than individual risk – brings forward the need of risk management and raises issues at the highest level of company management. For a proper view on company risks, each individual risk and the possibility of risk interaction must be understood. This is essential to establish a risk classification according to their impact on the company. Traditional approach on risk management, as a management function, is limited to only threats and losses, so relatively few organizations see risks as potential earning-generated opportunities. However, risk management process is not radically changed. Enterprise risk management is an improved version of the traditional risk management, created by expanding its scope. The new risk

  16. Study on Risk Approaches in Software Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk approaches in project development led to the integration in the IT project management methodologies and software development of activities and processes of risk management. The diversity and the advanced level of the used technologies in IT projects with increasing com-plexity leads to an exponential diversification of risk factors.The purpose of this research is to identify the level of the risk approach in IT projects both at the IT project management and software development methodologies level and the level of the perception of IT project man-agers, IT managers and IT analysts in Romanian IT companies. Thus, we want to determine the correlation between the use of a project management or software development methodology and the overall level of risk perceived by the project managers using these methodologies.

  17. Case Study of Engineering Risk in Automotive Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Dan Mihai

    2018-03-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to show where the engineering of risk management is placed and how its implementation has been tried in multinational companies in automotive industry from Romania. A large number of companies don't use a strategy to avoid the engineering risk in their design products. The main reason is not because these companies haven't heard about standards for risk management such as ISO 31000; the problem is that the business units which were summed up, have just set up a risk list at the beginning of the project, without any follow up. The purpose of this article is to create an implementation risk tracking in automotive industry companies in Romania, due to a change request from customers according to supply companies within the quality process, in the research and development phase.

  18. Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

    2017-09-25

    Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed

  19. An overview of the fire risk scoping study objectives, approach, findings and follow-on efforts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues which had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 8 refs., 2 tabs

  20. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2014-05-01

    Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Antiepileptic drugs and risk of suicide: a nationwide study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Hansen, Peter Riis; Erdal, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    . The case-crossover analysis estimated AED treatment initiation to increase the risk of suicide (odds ratio (OR): 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-2.49). Clonazepam (OR: 2.01, CI: 1.25-3.25), valproate (OR: 2.08, CI: 1.01-4.16), lamotrigine (OR: 3.15, CI: 1.35-7.34) and phenobarbital (OR: 1.96, CI...... that clonazepam, valproate, lamotrigine and phenobarbital relatively shortly after treatment initiation may increase the risk of suicide. The increased risk of suicide associated with these AEDs appears to be a consistent finding. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd...

  3. The systematic risk study in technology companies at Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcio Marcelo Belli

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This work tested if brasilian technology companies has a greater systematic risk than traditional companies in Brazil. For to achieve tje purpose, two companies samples , one of technology companies and the other of traditional companies, were composed. The tecnique employed was a multiple regression analysis considering a dichotomous variable wich represents the technological factor and another numerical variable wich represents the intangibility degree of  companies. As a dependent variable was considered the CAPM systematic risk. The results indicated that technology companies have a greater systematic risk than traditional companies regardless of the degree of intangibility.

  4. Risk assessment after coronary angioplasty with SPECT myocardial perfusion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camilletti, Jorge A.; Erriest, Juan; Mele, Anibal A.

    2007-01-01

    The chest pain can be use for stratifying the risk of the patients after coronary angioplasty. Nevertheless this strategy has shown to have a low accuracy in the detection of restenosis and myocardial ischemia. Aims: To establish the usefulness of the SPECT studies in the risk stratification after the coronary angioplasty. Evaluate the incidence of silent ischemia or symptomatic, and its impact on the prognosis. Method: There were included 107 patients (p) submitted to a gated SPECT between the year of the coronary angioplasty. The analysis of the images was performed according to different scores (SSS, SRS, SDS). These data was correlated with the symptoms of the patients. We define group 1 (G1) as the asymptomatic without ischemia (n 59p), group 2 (G2) as silent ischemia (n = 28p) and group 3 (G3) as symptomatic with ischemia (n = 20p). A clinical follow-up was done in search of events (target vessel revascularization, unstable angina, AMI and death). Results: Significant differences were not observed in the clinical variables between the different groups. The SSS was lower in the G1 compare with G2 and G3 (p 0.0001) and was similar between the last two, p = NS (SSS: G1: 2.2 ± 4.9; G2: 7.6 ± 5.9; G3: 9.5 ± 6.8). The SDS was greater in G3 vs. G1 and G2, p = 0.0001, and greater in G2 vs. G1, p = 0.0001 (SDS: G1: 0; G2: 4.8 ± 3.5; G3: 7.2 ± 6.5). No differences where observed in the SRS between the three groups. In the follow-up the total percentage of events was lesser when compare the G1 with the G2 and G3 (G1: 3.3%; G2 and G3: 18.7%; p 0.02). The percentage of annual events of the G3 symptomatic with ischemia (11.03%) and G2 silent ischemia (4.04%) did not present differences (p 0.7). When the events of the G2 (4.04%) were compared with the G1 (1.24%) we observed a trend to major frequency of events in the G2 (p = 0.6). Conclusions: The presence of myocardial ischemia after coronary angioplasty is a determinant of the prognosis. Nevertheless, the extension

  5. Leprosy among patient contacts: a multilevel study of risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Sales

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors associated with developing leprosy among the contacts of newly-diagnosed leprosy patients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 6,158 contacts and 1,201 leprosy patients of the cohort who were diagnosed and treated at the Leprosy Laboratory of Fiocruz from 1987 to 2007 were included. The contact variables analyzed were sex; age; educational and income levels; blood relationship, if any, to the index case; household or non-household relationship; length of time of close association with the index case; receipt of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BGG vaccine and presence of BCG scar. Index cases variables included sex, age, educational level, family size, bacillary load, and disability grade. Multilevel logistic regression with random intercept was applied. Among the co-prevalent cases, the leprosy-related variables that remained associated with leprosy included type of household contact, [odds ratio (OR = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.02, 1.73] and consanguinity with the index case, (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.42-2.51. With respect to the index case variables, the factors associated with leprosy among contacts included up to 4 years of schooling and 4 to 10 years of schooling (OR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.54-4.79 and 2.40, 95% CI: 1.30-4.42, respectively and bacillary load, which increased the chance of leprosy among multibacillary contacts for those with a bacillary index of one to three and greater than three (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.19-2.17 and OR: 4.07-95% CI: 2.73, 6.09, respectively. Among incident cases, household exposure was associated with leprosy (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.29-2.98, compared with non-household exposure. Among the index case risk factors, an elevated bacillary load was the only variable associated with leprosy in the contacts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Biological and social factors appear to be associated with leprosy among co-prevalent cases, whereas the factors related to the

  6. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  7. Association of Educational Attainment With Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Yasuhiko; Heiss, Gerardo; MacLehose, Richard F; Roetker, Nicholas S; Folsom, Aaron R

    2017-08-01

    Estimates of lifetime risk may help raise awareness of the extent to which educational inequalities are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To estimate lifetime risks of CVD according to categories of educational attainment. Participants were followed from 1987 through December 31, 2013. All CVD events (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke) were confirmed by physician review and International Classification of Diseases codes. A total of 13 948 whites and African Americans who were 45 to 64 years old and free of CVD at baseline were included from 4 US communities (Washington County, Maryland; Forsyth County, North Carolina; Jackson, Mississippi; and suburbs of Minneapolis, Minnesota). The data analysis was performed from June 7 to August 31, 2016. Educational attainment. We used a life table approach to estimate lifetime risks of CVD from age 45 through 85 years according to educational attainment. We adjusted for competing risks of death from underlying causes other than CVD. The sample of 13 948 participants was 56% female and 27% African American. During 269 210 person-years of follow-up, we documented 4512 CVD events and 2401 non-CVD deaths. Educational attainment displayed an inverse dose-response relation with cumulative risk of CVD, which became evident in middle age, with the most striking gap between those not completing vs completing high school. In men, lifetime risks of CVD were 59.0% (95% CI, 54.0%-64.1%) for grade school, 52.5% (95% CI, 47.7%-56.8%) for high school education without graduation, 50.9% (95% CI, 47.3%-53.9%) for high school graduation, 47.2% (95% CI, 41.5%-52.5%) for vocational school, 46.4% (95% CI, 42.8%-49.6%) for college with or without graduation, and 42.2% (95% CI, 36.6%-47.0%) for graduate/professional school; in women, 50.8% (95% CI, 45.7%-55.8%), 49.3% (95% CI, 45.1%-53.1%), 36.3% (95% CI, 33.4%-39.1%), 32.2% (95% CI, 26.0%-37.3%), 32.8% (95% CI, 29.1%-35.9%), and 28.0% (95% CI, 21

  8. Association between metabolic syndrome and bone fracture risk: A community-based study using a fracture risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

    2017-12-01

    Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A prospective study of risk factors for foot ulceration: The West of Ireland Diabetes Foot Study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hurley, L

    2013-09-25

    BackgroundThis is the first study to examine risk factors for diabetic foot ulceration in Irish general practice.AimTo determine the prevalence of established risk factors for foot ulceration in a community-based cohort, and to explore the potential for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to act as a novel risk factor.DesignA prospective observational study.MethodsPatients with diabetes attending 12 (of 17) invited general practices were invited for foot screening. Validated clinical tests were carried out at baseline to assess for vascular and sensory impairment and foot deformity. Ulcer incidence was ascertained by patient self-report and medical record. Patients were re-assessed 18 months later. ResultsOf 828 invitees, 563 (68%) attended screening. On examination 23-25% had sensory dysfunction and 18-39% had evidence of vascular impairment. Using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network risk stratification system we found the proportion at moderate and high risk of future ulceration to be 25% and 11% respectively. At follow-up 16\\/383 patients (4.2%) developed a new foot ulcer (annual incidence rate of 2.6%). We observed an increasing probability of abnormal vascular and sensory test results (pedal pulse palpation, doppler waveform assessment, 10g monofilament, vibration perception and neuropathy disability score) with declining eGFR levels. We were unable to show an independent association between new ulceration and reduced eGFR [Odds ratio 1.01; p=0.64].ConclusionsOur data show the extent of foot complications in a representative sample of diabetes patients in Ireland. Use of eGFR did not improve identification of patients at risk of foot ulceration.

  10. The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welschen, Laura M C; Bot, Sandra D M; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; van der Weijden, Trudy; Nijpels, Giel

    2010-08-05

    Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care.The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory. A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS), a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks) between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120 patients in each group. This innovative risk

  11. Preliminary plan for case-control crash risk study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-31

    The goal of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is to reduce commercial vehicle-related fatalities and injuries. This is achieved through a thorough understanding of crash characteristics, precursors, and risk factors. This will h...

  12. A study of new potential risk factors for Down syndrome in Upper Egypt

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The well-established risk factor, advanced maternal age, was not found in many of the Down syndrome cases in Egypt, while other possible risk factors have not been well studied yet. In view of this, we have conducted the present study to clarify that issue and throw some lights on other potential risk factors in Down ...

  13. Snus and risk of gastroesophageal reflux. A population-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lie, Tina Malene; Bomme, Maria; Hveem, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux, but whether other tobacco products increase the risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate if snus increases the risk of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms (GERS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was based...

  14. Risk Management and Disaster Recovery in Public Libraries in South Australia: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, Diane L.; Evans, Nina; Kaeding, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: This paper reports the findings of a study of risk management in public libraries. The focus of the research was to determine whether the libraries had a risk management and disaster plan for major disasters. Method: A qualitative study was done to investigate risk management and disaster recovery in public libraries in South…

  15. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  16. Kidney Measures with Diabetes and Hypertension on Cardiovascular Disease : The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alexander, Nadine; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana; Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K.; Astor, Brad C.; Coresh, Josef

    2015-01-01

    Background: Whether the association of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with cardiovascular risk differs based on diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) status remains unanswered. Methods: We investigated 11,050 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (fourth examination

  17. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  18. Chronic myeloproliferative neoplasms and subsequent cancer risk: a Danish population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Henrik; Farkas, Dóra Körmendiné; Christiansen, Christian Fynbo

    2011-01-01

    Patients with chronic myeloproliferative neoplasms, including essential thrombocythemia (ET), polycythemia vera (PV), and chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), are at increased risk of new hematologic malignancies, but their risk of nonhematologic malignancies remains unknown. In the present study, we...

  19. Cardiovascular Risk and Serum Hyaluronic Acid: A Preliminary Study in a Healthy Population of Low/Intermediate Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papanastasopoulou, Chrysanthi; Papastamataki, Maria; Karampatsis, Petros; Anagnostopoulou, Eleni; Papassotiriou, Ioannis; Sitaras, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    Hyaluronic acid (HA) has been found to be an important trigger of atherosclerosis. In this study, we investigate the possible association of serum HA with cardiovascular disease risk in a population of low/intermediate risk for cardiovascular events. We enrolled 200 subjects with low/intermediate risk for developing cardiovascular disease. High specific C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was used as an indicator of preclinical atherosclerosis. The Framingham score was used to calculate the cardiovascular risk. Participants with dyslipidemia had significantly higher levels of serum HA than those without dyslipidemia (t-test, P = 0.05), higher levels of hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.04), and higher cardiovascular risk according to the Framingham score (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.05). Serum HA concentration correlated significantly with the Framingham score for risk for coronary heart disease over the next 10 years (Spearman r = 0.152, P = 0.02). Diabetic volunteers had significantly higher HA than those without diabetes (t-test, P = 0.02). Participants with metabolic syndrome had higher serum HA levels and higher hsCRP (Kruskal-Wallis test, P = 0.01) compared to volunteers without metabolic syndrome (t-test, P = 0.03). Serum HA should be explored as an early marker of atheromatosis and cardiovascular risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

    2009-05-10

    Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

  1. A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Gary A.

    Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.

  2. Childhood abuse, parental warmth, and adult multisystem biological risk in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Judith E; Gruenewald, Tara L; Taylor, Shelley E; Janicki-Deverts, Denise; Matthews, Karen A; Seeman, Teresa E

    2013-10-15

    Childhood abuse increases adult risk for morbidity and mortality. Less clear is how this "toxic" stress becomes embedded to influence health decades later, and whether protective factors guard against these effects. Early biological embedding is hypothesized to occur through programming of the neural circuitry that influences physiological response patterns to subsequent stress, causing wear and tear across multiple regulatory systems. To examine this hypothesis, we related reports of childhood abuse to a comprehensive 18-biomarker measure of multisystem risk and also examined whether presence of a loving parental figure buffers against the impact of childhood abuse on adult risk. A total of 756 subjects (45.8% white, 42.7% male) participated in this ancillary substudy of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study. Childhood stress was determined by using the Risky Families Questionnaire, a well-validated retrospective self-report scale. Linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, race, parental education, and oral contraceptive use found a significant positive relationship between reports of childhood abuse and multisystem health risks [B (SE) = 0.68 (0.16); P childhood was associated with lower multisystem health risks [B (SE) = -0.40 (0.14); P childhood had the highest multisystem risk in adulthood.

  3. Nuclear and environmental risk perceptions: results from a study with university students

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

    2010-01-01

    The deployment of advanced technologies depends on public acceptance. Studies on risk perception can assist decision makers in their choices and working methodology, as well as science communicators. In this work, the field study was conducted with a university population with the objective of compare the perceptions of nuclear risk and environmental. Concluding that the perception of environmental risk has excelled in public opinion, overcoming the perceived nuclear risk. (author)

  4. Combination of diabetes risk factors and hepatic steatosis in Chinese: the Cardiometabolic Risk in Chinese (CRC Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liang

    Full Text Available Hepatic steatosis has been related to insulin resistance and increased diabetes risk. We assessed whether combination of diabetes risk factors, evaluated by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, was associated with risk of hepatic steatosis in an apparently healthy Chinese population.The study samples were from a community-based health examination survey in central China. In total 1,780 men and women (18-64 y were included in the final analyses. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by ultrasonography. We created combination of diabetes risk factors score on basis of age, Body Mass Index, waist circumference, physical activity at least 4 h a week, daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, history of high blood glucose. The total risk score is a simple sum of the individual weights, and values range from 0 to 20.Hepatic steatosis was present 18% in the total population. In multivariate models, the odds ratios of hepatic steatosis were 1.20 (95%CI 1.15-1.25 in men and 1.25 (95%CI 1.14-1.37 in women by each unit increase in the combination of diabetes risk factors score, after adjustment for blood pressure, liver enzymes, plasma lipids, and fasting glucose. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for hepatic steatosis was 0.78 (95%CI 0.76-0.80, 0.76 in men (95%CI 0.74-0.78 and 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.87 in women.Our data suggest that combination of major diabetes risk factors was significantly related to risk of hepatic steatosis in Chinese adults.

  5. Risk of caries and oral health: preliminary study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Gatti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The incidence of injury cariosa remains high, despite the improvements achieved in the last years. Recent national epidemiological surveys, 4 years old children have healthy teeth in 80% of cases at 12 years the percentage is reduced to 50%. In Italy, the almost total absence on the territory of “dental services to the Community”, makes even more difficult to achieve a solution to the problem “caries.” To address this problem, the Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Policy in October 2008 adopted the national guidelines in order to make suggestions to the various professionals (pediatricians, dentists, microbiologists, dental hygienists, etc., making them interact to maintain and restore oral health. It was the first time that the Ministry of Health has addressed the problem by inserting the figure of the microbiologist in dentistry. Aims. The present study aim was to identify subjects at risk of caries by clinical microbiological testing of saliva and the index DMFT/dmft (Decayed, Missing and Filling Permanent Teeth in both adults and particularly children in order to take preventive measures early as reported in “National guidelines for the promotion of oral health and prevention of oral diseases in age of development”. The study began in June 2009 and will last one year with as goal to have, in 2010, 90% of children between 5 and 6 years caries free and 18 years with any lost tooth decay. Materials and methods. Recruited 164 patients were divided into three age groups: 124 adults aged between 20 and 40 years, 40 children which 21 till 5 years old and 19 till 12 years old. Microbiological testing was aimed by finding CFU / ml of saliva of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus spp., Slide CRT bacteria (Ivoclar. Clinically, intraoral examination was performed to evaluate the DMFT (Decayed teeth, Missing or Filling calculated over 28 permanent teeth and the dmft (decayed teeth, missing or filling calculated on 20

  6. Managing discovery risks--A Tevatron case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakul Banerjee

    2004-01-01

    To meet the increasing need for higher performance, Management of Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory has undertaken various projects to improve systems associated with the Tevatron high-energy particle collider located at Batavia, Illinois. One of the larger projects is the Tevatron Beam Position Monitor (BPM) system. The objective of this project is to replace the existing BPM electronics and software system that was originally installed during early 1980s, along with the original construction of the Tevatron.The original system consists of 236 beam position monitors located around the underground tunnel of the accelerator. Above ground control systems are attached to these monitors using pickup cables. When the Tevatron collider is operational, signals received from the BPMs are used to perform a number of control and diagnostic tasks. The original system can only capture the proton signals from the collider. The new system, when fully operational, will be able to capture combined proton and antiproton signals and will be able to separate the antiproton signal from the combined signal at high resolution. This significant enhancement was beyond the range of technical capabilities when the Tevatron was constructed about two decades ago. To take advantage of exceptional progress made in the hardware and software area in past two decades, Department of Energy approved funding of the BPM electronics and software replacement project. The approximate length of the project is sixteen months with a budget of four million dollars not including overhead, escalation, and contingencies. Apart from cost and schedule risks, there are two major risks associated with this research and development project. The primary risk is the risk of discovery. Since the Tevatron beam path is highly complex, BPMs have to acquire and process a large amount of data. In this environment, analysis of data to separate antiproton signals is even more complex. Finding an optimum algorithm that can

  7. Prediction of Adult Dyslipidemia Using Genetic and Childhood Clinical Risk Factors: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuotio, Joel; Pitkänen, Niina; Magnussen, Costan G; Buscot, Marie-Jeanne; Venäläinen, Mikko S; Elo, Laura L; Jokinen, Eero; Laitinen, Tomi; Taittonen, Leena; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S; Juonala, Markus; Raitakari, Olli T

    2017-06-01

    Dyslipidemia is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We examined whether the addition of novel single-nucleotide polymorphisms for blood lipid levels enhances the prediction of adult dyslipidemia in comparison to childhood lipid measures. Two thousand four hundred and twenty-two participants of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study who had participated in 2 surveys held during childhood (in 1980 when aged 3-18 years and in 1986) and at least once in a follow-up study in adulthood (2001, 2007, and 2011) were included. We examined whether inclusion of a lipid-specific weighted genetic risk score based on 58 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 71 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and 40 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for triglycerides improved the prediction of adult dyslipidemia compared with clinical childhood risk factors. Adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, physical activity, and smoking in childhood, childhood lipid levels, and weighted genetic risk scores were associated with an increased risk of adult dyslipidemia for all lipids. Risk assessment based on 2 childhood lipid measures and the lipid-specific weighted genetic risk scores improved the accuracy of predicting adult dyslipidemia compared with the approach using only childhood lipid measures for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.806 versus 0.811; P =0.01) and triglycerides (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.740 versus area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.758; P dyslipidemia in adulthood. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Major dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors from childhood to adulthood. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkilä, Vera; Räsänen, Leena; Raitakari, Olli T; Marniemi, Jukka; Pietinen, Pirjo; Rönnemaa, Tapani; Viikari, Jorma

    2007-07-01

    Studies on the impact of single nutrients on the risk of CVD have often given inconclusive results. Recent research on dietary patterns has offered promising information on the effects of diet as a whole on the risk of CVD. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up to date. The subjects were children and adolescents at baseline (3-18 years, n 1768) and adults at the latest follow-up study (24-39 years, n 1037). We investigated the associations between two major dietary patterns and several risk factors for CVD. In longitudinal analyses with repeated measurements, using multivariate mixed linear regression models, the traditional dietary pattern (characterised by high consumption of rye, potatoes, butter, sausages, milk and coffee) was independently associated with total and LDL cholesterol concentrations, apolipoprotein B and C-reactive protein concentrations among both genders, and also with systolic blood pressure and insulin levels among women and concentrations of homocysteine among men (P health-conscious food choices (such as high consumption of vegetables, legumes and nuts, tea, rye, cheese and other dairy products, and alcoholic beverages) was inversely, but less strongly associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Our results support earlier findings that dietary patterns have a role in the development of CVD.

  9. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  10. Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

    2017-01-01

    The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

  11. Risk identication of tailorable context-aware systems: a case study and lessons learned

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zarifi Eslami, Mohammed; Sapkota, Brahmananda; Zarghami, Alireza; Vriezekolk, E.; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Wieringa, P.A.

    In this paper, we discuss possible risks posed by the application of tailorable context-aware systems in real-life practices. We use a tailorable context-aware system in the homecare domain as a case study to identify and analyse such risks. Next, we discuss which of these risks can be generalized

  12. Cancer and risk of cerebral venous thrombosis: a case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, S. M.; Hiltunen, S.; Lindgren, E.; Jood, K.; Zuurbier, S. M.; Middeldorp, S.; Putaala, J.; Cannegieter, S. C.; Tatlisumak, T.; Coutinho, J. M.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Cancer is an established risk factor for leg vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Controlled studies assessing the risk of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in patients with cancer have not been performed. Objective: To assess whether cancer is a risk factor for CVT. Patients/Methods:

  13. Motives for Risk-Taking in Adolescence: A Cross-Cultural Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloep, M.; Guney, N.; Cok, F.; Simsek, O. F.

    2009-01-01

    Most research on adolescent risk-taking has been conducted in Western societies, but it is as yet unknown whether motives to engage in risk behaviours show cultural variety. This study sets out to investigate differences in perceived motives to engage in perceived risks in Turkish and Welsh samples of young people (N = 922) between 14 and 20 years…

  14. Putative Risk Factors in Developmental Dyslexia: A Case-Control Study of Italian Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascheretti, Sara; Marino, Cecilia; Simone, Daniela; Quadrelli, Ermanno; Riva, Valentina; Cellino, Maria Rosaria; Maziade, Michel; Brombin, Chiara; Battaglia, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Although dyslexia runs in families, several putative risk factors that cannot be immediately identified as genetic predict reading disability. Published studies analyzed one or a few risk factors at a time, with relatively inconsistent results. To assess the contribution of several putative risk factors to the development of dyslexia, we conducted…

  15. Prevalence and risk indicators of depression in elderly nursing home patients : the AGED study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongenelis, K; Eisses, AMH; Beekman, ATF; Kluiter, H; Ribbe, MW

    2004-01-01

    Background: Depression is a common and disabling psychiatric disorder in later life. Particular frail nursing home patients seem to be at increased risk. Nursing home-based studies on risk indicators of depression are scarce. Methods: Prevalence and risk indicators of depression were assessed in 333

  16. Computed tomography in children: multicenter cohort study design for the evaluation of cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krille, L.; Jahnen, A.; Mildenberger, P.; Schneider, K.; Weisser, G.; Zeeb, H.; Blettner, M.

    2011-01-01

    Exposure to ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer. Cancer risk is highest after exposure in childhood. The computed tomography is the major contributor to the average, individual radiation exposure. Until now the association has been addressed only in statistical modeling. We present the first feasible study design on childhood cancer risk after exposure to computed tomography.

  17. Risk Management for Study Abroad Programs: Issues and Resources to Inform Program Development, Administration, and Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Gary

    2014-01-01

    This chapter provides a practical background to the health and safety risks and challenges for U.S. colleges and universities and other program providers. Potential risks, field-based guidelines, good practices, and resources to support the management of risks by study abroad offices will be covered.

  18. The South African Stroke Risk in General Practice Study | Connor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two hundred general practices were randomly selected from lists provided by pharmaceutical .representatives. Each GP approached 50 consecutive patients aged 30 years and older. Patients completed an information sheet and the GP documented the patient's risk factors. The resulting sample is relevant.if not necessarily ...

  19. Risk factors for Alzheimer's disease : a genetic-epidemiologic study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractThe work presented in this thesis has been motivated by the Jack of knowledge of risk factors for Alzheimer's disease. It has been long recognised that genetic factors are implicated, in particular in early-onset Alzheimer's disease.4 But to what extent are genetic factors involved?

  20. Risk indicators of anxiety throughout adolescence: the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oort, F.V.A.; Greaves-Lord, K.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Huizink, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim was to identify risk indicators from preadolescence (age period 10-12) that significantly predict unfavorable deviations from normal anxiety development throughout adolescence (age period 10-17 years). Methods: Anxiety symptoms were assessed in a community sample of 2,220 boys

  1. The risk of upcoding in casemix systems : A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbusch, P.; Oostenbrink, J.; Schaepkens, F.F.J.M.; Zuurbier, J.J.

    2007-01-01

    With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the

  2. Clinical Studies in Risk Stratification & Therapy of Thoracic Aortic Disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamman, AV

    2017-01-01

    For this thesis we aimed to summarize outcomes and optimal treatment modality for thoracic aortic disease, discuss new imaging techniques and improve the use of current imaging modalities. Furthermore, we aimed to improve risk stratification for uncomplicated type B aortic dissection (TBAD) and

  3. Risk Factors for Upper and Lower Urinary Tract Cancer Death in a Japanese Population: Findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washio, Masakazu; Mori, Mitsuru; Mikami, Kazuya; Miki, Tsuneharu; Watanabe, Yoshiyuki; Nakao, Masahiro; Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Suzuki, Koji; Ozasa, Kotaro; Wakai, Kenji; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2016-01-01

    The incidence of bladder cancer is lower in Asian than in Western countries. However, the crude incidence and mortality of bladder cancer have recently increased in Japan because of the increased number of senior citizens. We have already reported risk factors for urothelial cancer in a large populationbased cohort study in Japan (JACC study). However, we did not evaluate the cancer risk in the upper and lower urinary tract separately in our previous study. Here we evaluated the risk of cancer death in the upper and lower urinary tracts, separately, using the database of the JACC study. The analytic cohort included 46,395 males and 64,190 females aged 40 to 79 years old. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Current smoking increased the risk of both upper and lower urinary tract cancer deaths. A history of kidney disease was associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer death, even after controlling for age, sex and smoking status. The present study confirmed that current smoking increases the risk of both upper and lower urinary tract cancer deaths and indicated the possibility that a history of kidney disease may be a risk factor for bladder cancer death in the Japanese population.

  4. A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Alessandro; Nordio, Francesco; Gohel, Anita

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors. Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power. A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799. The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Radiation, Atherosclerotic Risk Factors, and Stroke Risk in Survivors of Pediatric Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Sabine, E-mail: muellers@neuropeds.ucsf.edu [Department of Neurology, Pediatrics and Neurosurgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Fullerton, Heather J. [Department of Neurology and Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Stratton, Kayla; Leisenring, Wendy [Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington (United States); Weathers, Rita E.; Stovall, Marilyn [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Armstrong, Gregory T. [St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States); Goldsby, Robert E. [Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Packer, Roger J. [Children' s National Medical Center, Washington, District of Columbia (United States); Sklar, Charles A. [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Bowers, Daniel C. [University of Texas Southwestern Medical School, Dallas, Texas (United States); Robison, Leslie L.; Krull, Kevin R. [St. Jude Children' s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee (United States)

    2013-07-15

    Purpose: To test the hypotheses that (1) the increased risk of stroke conferred by childhood cranial radiation therapy (CRT) persists into adulthood; and (2) atherosclerotic risk factors further increase the stroke risk in cancer survivors. Methods and Materials: The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study of 14,358 5-year survivors of childhood cancer and 4023 randomly selected sibling controls with longitudinal follow-up. Age-adjusted incidence rates of self-reported late-occurring (≥5 years after diagnosis) first stroke were calculated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent stroke predictors. Results: During a mean follow-up of 23.3 years, 292 survivors reported a late-occurring stroke. The age-adjusted stroke rate per 100,000 person-years was 77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 62-96), compared with 9.3 (95% CI 4-23) for siblings. Treatment with CRT increased stroke risk in a dose-dependent manner: hazard ratio 5.9 (95% CI 3.5-9.9) for 30-49 Gy CRT and 11.0 (7.4-17.0) for 50+ Gy CRT. The cumulative stroke incidence in survivors treated with 50+ Gy CRT was 1.1% (95% CI 0.4-1.8%) at 10 years after diagnosis and 12% (95% CI 8.9-15.0%) at 30 years. Hypertension increased stroke hazard by 4-fold (95% CI 2.8-5.5) and in black survivors by 16-fold (95% CI 6.9-36.6). Conclusion: Young adult pediatric cancer survivors have an increased stroke risk that is associated with CRT in a dose-dependent manner. Atherosclerotic risk factors enhanced this risk and should be treated aggressively.

  6. Radiation, Atherosclerotic Risk Factors, and Stroke Risk in Survivors of Pediatric Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Sabine; Fullerton, Heather J.; Stratton, Kayla; Leisenring, Wendy; Weathers, Rita E.; Stovall, Marilyn; Armstrong, Gregory T.; Goldsby, Robert E.; Packer, Roger J.; Sklar, Charles A.; Bowers, Daniel C.; Robison, Leslie L.; Krull, Kevin R.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To test the hypotheses that (1) the increased risk of stroke conferred by childhood cranial radiation therapy (CRT) persists into adulthood; and (2) atherosclerotic risk factors further increase the stroke risk in cancer survivors. Methods and Materials: The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study of 14,358 5-year survivors of childhood cancer and 4023 randomly selected sibling controls with longitudinal follow-up. Age-adjusted incidence rates of self-reported late-occurring (≥5 years after diagnosis) first stroke were calculated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent stroke predictors. Results: During a mean follow-up of 23.3 years, 292 survivors reported a late-occurring stroke. The age-adjusted stroke rate per 100,000 person-years was 77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 62-96), compared with 9.3 (95% CI 4-23) for siblings. Treatment with CRT increased stroke risk in a dose-dependent manner: hazard ratio 5.9 (95% CI 3.5-9.9) for 30-49 Gy CRT and 11.0 (7.4-17.0) for 50+ Gy CRT. The cumulative stroke incidence in survivors treated with 50+ Gy CRT was 1.1% (95% CI 0.4-1.8%) at 10 years after diagnosis and 12% (95% CI 8.9-15.0%) at 30 years. Hypertension increased stroke hazard by 4-fold (95% CI 2.8-5.5) and in black survivors by 16-fold (95% CI 6.9-36.6). Conclusion: Young adult pediatric cancer survivors have an increased stroke risk that is associated with CRT in a dose-dependent manner. Atherosclerotic risk factors enhanced this risk and should be treated aggressively

  7. Specialist Cohort Event Monitoring studies: a new study method for risk management in pharmacovigilance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Deborah; Shakir, Saad A W

    2015-02-01

    The evolving regulatory landscape has heightened the need for innovative, proactive, efficient and more meaningful solutions for 'real-world' post-authorization safety studies (PASS) that not only align with risk management objectives to gather additional safety monitoring information or assess a pattern of drug utilization, but also satisfy key regulatory requirements for marketing authorization holder risk management planning and execution needs. There is a need for data capture across the primary care and secondary care interface, or for exploring use of new medicines in secondary care to support conducting PASS. To fulfil this need, event monitoring has evolved. The Specialist Cohort Event Monitoring (SCEM) study is a new application that enables a cohort of patients prescribed a medicine in the hospital and secondary care settings to be monitored. The method also permits the inclusion of a comparator cohort of patients receiving standard care, or another counterfactual comparator group, to be monitored concurrently, depending on the study question. The approach has been developed in parallel with the new legislative requirement for pharmaceutical companies to undertake a risk management plan as part of post-authorization safety monitoring. SCEM studies recognize that the study population comprises those patients who may have treatment initiated under the care of specialist health care professionals and who are more complex in terms of underlying disease, co-morbidities and concomitant medications than the general disease population treated in primary care. The aims of this paper are to discuss the SCEM new-user study design, rationale and features that aim to address possible bias (such as selection bias) and current applications.

  8. Developing smartphone apps for behavioural studies: The AlcoRisk app case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Anthony; de Salas, Kristy; Lewis, Ian; Schüz, Benjamin

    2017-08-01

    Smartphone apps have emerged as valuable research tools to sample human behaviours at their time of occurrence within natural environments. Human behaviour sampling methods, such as Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), aim to facilitate research that is situated in ecologically valid real world environments rather than laboratory environments. Researchers have trialled a range of EMA smartphone apps to sample human behaviours such as dieting, physical activity and smoking. Software development processes for EMA smartphones apps, however, are not widely documented with little guidance provided for the integration of complex multidisciplinary behavioural and technical fields. In this paper, the AlcoRisk app for studying alcohol consumption and risk taking tendencies is presented alongside a software development process that integrates these multidisciplinary fields. The software development process consists of three stages including requirements analysis, feature and interface design followed by app implementation. Results from a preliminary feasibility study support the efficacy of the AlcoRisk app's software development process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Student nurse perceptions of risk in relation to international placements: a phenomenological research study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Debra A

    2012-11-01

    International nursing electives have been identified as a positive learning experience for students. However, whilst there are risks associated with international student placements in general, there is a scarcity of research specifically relating to student nurse's experiences of risk. This study aimed to investigate UK undergraduate student nurse experiences of risk during an international placement. A phenomenological methodology was applied and semi-structured interviews were conducted with student nurses who had recently returned from an international clinical placement abroad. Ten, second year student nurses, studying on a pre-registration diploma/BSc (Hons) Nursing Studies/Registered Nurse programme from one UK University participated in the study. Findings from the study highlighted that students felt that three types of risk existed; physical risk, clinical-professional risk and socio-cultural risk. Perceptions of risk were influenced by sociological theory relating to the concept of 'the other' and students attempted to reduce risk by employing strategies to reduce 'Otherness'. They also applied psychological theory relating to heuristics such as 'safety in numbers.' It also emerged from the study that exposure to perceived risk enhanced learning as students reported that it encouraged personal and professional development in particular and so assisted students in their move toward self-actualisation. It is suggested, and intended, that findings from this study can be applied to the preparation of students to further enhance their safety and learning experience during international placements abroad. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Studying borrower level risk characteristics of education loan in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arindam Bandyopadhyay

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the granular level risk of education loan using a cross section of data from 5000 borrowers obtained from four major public sector banks in India. The findings suggest that education loan defaults are mainly influenced by security, borrower margin, and repayment periods. The presence of guarantor or co-borrower and collateral significantly reduce default loss rates. The socioeconomic characteristics of borrowers and their regional locations also act as important factors associated with education loan defaults. The results suggest that by segmenting borrowers by probability of default and loss given default in a multidimensional scale, banks can adopt better risk mitigation and pricing strategies to resolve borrower problems.

  11. Uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, S.; Metcalf, D.R.; Pegram, J.W.

    1982-01-01

    Three uncertainty propagation techniques, namely method of moments, discrete probability distribution (DPD), and Monte Carlo simulation, generally used in probabilistic risk assessment, are compared and conclusions drawn in terms of the accuracy of the results. For small uncertainty in the basic event unavailabilities, the three methods give similar results. For large uncertainty, the method of moments is in error, and the appropriate method is to propagate uncertainty in the discrete form either by DPD method without sampling or by Monte Carlo. (orig.)

  12. Sustainability and Risk Disclosure: An Exploratory Study on Sustainability Reports

    OpenAIRE

    Elisa Truant; Laura Corazza; Simone Domenico Scagnelli

    2017-01-01

    Recent policy changes in sustainability reporting, such as the ones related to the new European Directive on non-financial disclosure (2014/95/EU), the standards issued by the American Sustainability Accounting Standard Board (SASB), the G4 guidelines issued by the Global Sustainability Standard Board (GSSB), and the framework of the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC) stress the importance of extending the disclosure of ethical, social, and environmental risks within financial ...

  13. Organ utilization from increased infectious risk donors: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Huillier, Arnaud G; Humar, Atul; Payne, Clare; Kumar, Deepali

    2017-12-01

    Donors with an increased risk of transmitting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV) (increased risk donors [IRDs]) are a potential source of organs for transplant. Organs from IRDs can be utilized with appropriate recipient consent and post-transplant follow-up. We reviewed the characteristics and utilization of IRDs in our Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) over a 2-year period. Donor information from April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2015 was obtained through the OPO database. Only consented donors were included. Donors were categorized as IRDs according to Health Canada/Canadian Standards Association (CSA) criteria. A total of 494 potential donors were identified, of which 92 (18.6%) were IRDs. Of these, at least one organ was transplanted from 76 (82.6%). Risk factors for IRDs included injection drug user (IDU) (12%), men having sex with men (MSM) (7%), commercial sex worker (CSW) (4%), and incarceration (24%). Fifty-nine percent (253/429) of IRD organs were utilized. The most frequently used organ was kidney, followed by liver. Median number of organs recovered per IRD was 3 (interquartile range: 2-5). Nucleic acid testing (NAT) was performed in 18.5% (17/92) of IRDs. Reasons for NAT were IDU (n = 2), MSM (n = 2), CSW (n = 2), and previous incarceration (n = 7). Organ utilization from donors that had NAT was similar to donors who did not (94% vs 80%, P = .29). Follow-up NAT was done in multiple factors contribute to the perception of infectious risk from such organs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Risk indicators of anxiety throughout adolescence: the TRAILS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oort, F V A; Greaves-Lord, K; Ormel, J; Verhulst, F C; Huizink, A C

    2011-06-01

    The aim was to identify risk indicators from preadolescence (age period 10-12) that significantly predict unfavorable deviations from normal anxiety development throughout adolescence (age period 10-17 years). Anxiety symptoms were assessed in a community sample of 2,220 boys and girls at three time-points across a 5-year interval. Risk indicators were measured at baseline and include indicators from the child, family, and peer domain. Associations with anxiety were measured with multilevel growth curve analyses. A stable difference in anxiety over adolescence was found between high and low levels of a range of child factors (frustration, effortful control), family factors (emotional warmth received from parents, lifetime parental internalizing problems), and peer factor (victims of bullying) (P competence, unfavorable parenting styles, and bully victims, decreased over adolescence (P parental education and family composition were not significant. Adjustment for concurrent depressive symptoms attenuated the associations, but those that were significant at P social phobia, panic, and obsessive-compulsive symptoms) was reported for each association. Several child, family, and peer factors measured in preadolescence were risk indicators of high levels of anxiety symptoms throughout adolescence. Some factors (such as rejective parenting) were vulnerability indicators for anxiety in early adolescence only, whereas other factors (such as peer victimization) were indicators of long-term elevated anxiety levels. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  15. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  16. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  17. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in postmenopausal women: A rural study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishal R Tandon

    2010-01-01

    Conclusion: This study showed alarmingly high prevalence of most of the conventional CVRFs, especially diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity, and other risk factors in postmenopausal women from rural areas.

  18. Alcohol and ovarian cancer risk: Results from the Netherlands Cohort Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schouten, L.J.; Zeegers, M.P.A.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Brandt, P.A. van den

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To study alcohol consumption in relation to ovarian cancer risk in a prospective cohort study. Methods: The Netherlands Cohort Study on diet and cancer was initiated in 1986. A self-administered questionnaire on dietary habits and other risk factors for cancer was completed by 62,573

  19. Physical activity and risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gallo, Valentina; Vanacore, Nicola; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Vermeulen, Roel; Brayne, Carol; Pearce, Neil; Wark, Petra A.; Ward, Heather A.; Ferrari, Pietro; Jenab, Mazda; Andersen, Peter M.; Wennberg, Patrik; Wareham, Nicholas; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Peeters, Petra H.; Mattiello, Amalia; Pala, Valeria; Barricante, Aurelio; Chirlaque, Maria Dolores; Travier, Noémie; Travis, Ruth C.; Sanchez, Maria Jose; Pessah-Rasmussen, Hélène; Petersson, Jesper; Tjønneland, Anne; Tumino, Rosario; Quiros, Jose Ramon; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Kyrozis, Andreas; Oikonomidou, Despoina; Masala, Giovanna; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Arriola, Larraitz; Boeing, Heiner; Vigl, Matthaeus; Claver-Chapelon, Francoise; Middleton, Lefkos; Riboli, Elio; Vineis, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    Previous case–control studies have suggested a possible increased risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) with physical activity (PA), but this association has never been studied in prospective cohort studies. We therefore assessed the association between PA and risk of death from ALS in the

  20. Physical activity and risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gallo, Valentina; Vanacore, Nicola; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Vermeulen, Roel; Brayne, Carol; Pearce, Neil; Wark, Petra A; Ward, Heather A; Ferrari, Pietro; Jenab, Mazda; Andersen, Peter M; Wennberg, Patrik; Wareham, Nicholas; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Peeters, Petra H; Mattiello, Amalia; Pala, Valeria; Barricante, Aurelio; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Travier, Noémie; Travis, Ruth C; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Pessah-Rasmussen, Hélène; Petersson, Jesper; Tjønneland, Anne; Tumino, Rosario; Quiros, Jose Ramon; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Kyrozis, Andreas; Oikonomidou, Despoina; Masala, Giovanna; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Arriola, Larraitz; Boeing, Heiner; Vigl, Matthaeus; Claver-Chapelon, Francoise; Middleton, Lefkos; Riboli, Elio; Vineis, Paolo

    Previous case-control studies have suggested a possible increased risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) with physical activity (PA), but this association has never been studied in prospective cohort studies. We therefore assessed the association between PA and risk of death from ALS in the

  1. Adherence to healthy lifestyle and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cuilin; Tobias, Deirdre K; Chavarro, Jorge E; Bao, Wei; Wang, Dong; Ley, Sylvia H; Hu, Frank B

    2014-09-30

    To quantify the association between a combination of healthy lifestyle factors before pregnancy (healthy body weight, healthy diet, regular exercise, and not smoking) and the risk of gestational diabetes. Prospective cohort study. Nurses' Health Study II, United States. 20,136 singleton live births in 14,437 women without chronic disease. Self reported incident gestational diabetes diagnosed by a physician, validated by medical records in a previous study. Incident first time gestational diabetes was reported in 823 pregnancies. Each lifestyle factor measured was independently and significantly associated with risk of gestational diabetes. The combination of three low risk factors (non-smoker, ≥ 150 minutes a week of moderate to vigorous physical activity, and healthy eating (top two fifths of Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 adherence score)) was associated with a 41% lower risk of gestational diabetes compared with all other pregnancies (relative risk 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.71). Addition of body mass index (BMI) diabetes compared with all other pregnancies (relative risk 0.48, 0.38 to 0.61). Compared with pregnancies in women who did not meet any of the low risk lifestyle factors, those meeting all four criteria had an 83% lower risk of gestational diabetes (relative risk 0.17, 0.12 to 0.25). The population attributable risk percentage of the four risk factors in combination (smoking, inactivity, overweight, and poor diet) was 47.5% (95% confidence interval 35.6% to 56.6%). A similar population attributable risk percentage (49.2%) was observed when the distributions of the four low risk factors from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-10) data were applied to the calculation. Adherence to a low risk lifestyle before pregnancy is associated with a low risk of gestational diabetes and could be an effective strategy for the prevention of gestational diabetes. © Zhang et al 2014.

  2. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  3. Quantifying the risk of incompatible kidney transplantation: a multicenter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orandi, B J; Garonzik-Wang, J M; Massie, A B; Zachary, A A; Montgomery, J R; Van Arendonk, K J; Stegall, M D; Jordan, S C; Oberholzer, J; Dunn, T B; Ratner, L E; Kapur, S; Pelletier, R P; Roberts, J P; Melcher, M L; Singh, P; Sudan, D L; Posner, M P; El-Amm, J M; Shapiro, R; Cooper, M; Lipkowitz, G S; Rees, M A; Marsh, C L; Sankari, B R; Gerber, D A; Nelson, P W; Wellen, J; Bozorgzadeh, A; Gaber, A O; Montgomery, R A; Segev, D L

    2014-07-01

    Incompatible live donor kidney transplantation (ILDKT) offers a survival advantage over dialysis to patients with anti-HLA donor-specific antibody (DSA). Program-specific reports (PSRs) fail to account for ILDKT, placing this practice at regulatory risk. We collected DSA data, categorized as positive Luminex, negative flow crossmatch (PLNF) (n = 185), positive flow, negative cytotoxic crossmatch (PFNC) (n = 536) or positive cytotoxic crossmatch (PCC) (n = 304), from 22 centers. We tested associations between DSA, graft loss and mortality after adjusting for PSR model factors, using 9669 compatible patients as a comparison. PLNF patients had similar graft loss; however, PFNC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-2.23, p = 0.007) and PCC (aHR = 5.01, 95% CI: 3.71-6.77, p < 0.001) were associated with increased graft loss in the first year. PLNF patients had similar mortality; however, PFNC (aHR = 2.04; 95% CI: 1.28-3.26; p = 0.003) and PCC (aHR = 4.59; 95% CI: 2.98-7.07; p < 0.001) were associated with increased mortality. We simulated Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services flagging to examine ILDKT's effect on the risk of being flagged. Compared to equal-quality centers performing no ILDKT, centers performing 5%, 10% or 20% PFNC had a 1.19-, 1.33- and 1.73-fold higher odds of being flagged. Centers performing 5%, 10% or 20% PCC had a 2.22-, 4.09- and 10.72-fold higher odds. Failure to account for ILDKT's increased risk places centers providing this life-saving treatment in jeopardy of regulatory intervention. © Copyright 2014 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  4. Site-Specific ecological risk assessment. Case-study 2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, John

    “Development of a decision support system for sustainable management of contaminated land by linking bioavailability, ecological risk and ground water pollution of organic pollutants”or in short “LIBERATION”. The presentation includes examples on how to scale and integrate the results from various scientific......The decision supporting and integrating assessment tool, TRIAD, is used site-specific on PAH- and heavy metal contaminated sites in Denmark. The various aspects of the TRIAD approach are used on a set of chemistry-, ecotoxicology- and ecology related data collected among others in the EU project...

  5. The Effect of Subjective Risk Attitudes and Overconfidence on Risk Taking Behaviors: A Experimental Study Based on Traders of the Chinese Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qi-An; Xiao, Yinghong; Chen, Hui; Chen, Liang

    Our research analyzes the effect of the traders’ subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence on their risk taking behaviors on the Chinese Stock Market by experimental study method. We find that investors’ risk taking behavior is significantly affected by their subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence. Our results also argue that the objective return and volatility of stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence and optimism have an significant impact on risk taking behavior In line with theoretical models.

  6. Dairy Supply Chain Risk Management in Bangladesh: Field studies of Factors and Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tasnuba Nasir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain risk management (SCRM has gained wide attention among the academia and the business community in the present competitive business world. This paper aims to investigate the main risk factors associated with the dairy industry along with focuses on possible mitigation strategy to mitigate those risks. Qualitative field study has been undertaken in this research. The results of the interviews identify the different risk issues along with the possible mitigation strategies, embedded at storage, processing and distribution level in dairy industry of Bangladesh. The practical implication will contribute significantly to the dairy sector in terms of mitigating risks.

  7. Measures of abdominal adiposity and the risk of stroke: the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenant, Marie; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Wagner, Aline; Kee, Frank; Palmieri, Luigi; Ferrario, Marco M; Montaye, Michèle; Amouyel, Philippe; Dallongeville, Jean

    2011-10-01

    Excess fat accumulates in the subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue compartments. We tested the hypothesis that indicators of visceral adiposity, namely, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), are better predictors of stroke risk than body mass index (BMI). The association of BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR with stroke was assessed in 31,201 men and 23,516 women, free of vascular disease at baseline, from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) study. During a mean follow-up of 11 years, 1130 strokes were recorded. Relative risks (95% CI) were calculated by Cox regression after stratification for center and adjustment for age, smoking, educational level, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and BMI and model fit was assessed using log-likelihoods. BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke in men. After full adjustment including BMI, the relative risks for stroke remained significant for WC (1.19 [1.02 to 1.34] per 1 SD increase in WC), WHR (1.14 [1.03 to 1.26]), and WHtR (1.50 [1.28 to 1.77]). Among women, the extent of the associations with stroke risk was similar for WHtR (1.31 [1.04 to 1.65]), WC (1.19 [0.96 to 1.47]), and WHR (1.08 [0.97 to 1.22]). Further analyses by World Health Organization obesity categories showed that WC, WHR, and WHtR were associated with the risk of stroke also in lean men and women (BMI<25 kg/m2), independently of confounders, cardiovascular risk factors, and BMI. Indicators of abdominal adiposity, especially WHtR, are more strongly associated with stroke risk than BMI. These results emphasize the importance of measuring abdominal adiposity, especially in lean subjects.

  8. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  9. German risk study, phase B: Results of the event tree and fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoertner, H.

    1987-01-01

    This paper deals with the most important results of the level 1 analysis performed in Phase B of the German Risk Study and with the insights it provided. The question is raised, to what extent the results of risk analyses can be verified against available operating experience. In this respect the results of the German Risk Study will be compared with the estimates of the German Precursor Study. Finally, the results of the German investigations are briefly compared with the results of recent U.S. risk analyses. (orig.)

  10. Study on institutionalization of risk-informed performance-based regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, M. G.; Hong, S. Y.; Seo, M. R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-02-15

    In this study, for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation in Korea, the latest technical movements of overseas countries are examined and reviewed. And the issues that was found when license change petition using risk information was submitted in Korean regulatory body are reviewed. Based on these review, the applicable areas to domestic situation will be found and proposed. This study can contribute to setting up the proper direction for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation.

  11. Cost risk analysis of radioactive waste management Preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsstroem, J.

    2006-12-01

    This work begins with exposition of the basics of risk analysis. These basics are then applied to the Finnish radioactive waste disposal environment in which the nuclear power companies are responsible for all costs of radioactive waste management including longterm disposal of spent fuel. Nuclear power companies prepare cost estimates of the waste disposal on a yearly basis to support the decision making on accumulation of resources to the nuclear waste disposal fund. These cost estimates are based on the cost level of the ongoing year. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the costs of the waste disposal system was defined and it was used to produce preliminary results of its cost risk characteristics. Input data was synthesised by modifying the original coefficients of cost uncertainty to define a cost range for each cost item. This is a suitable method for demonstrating results obtainable by the model but it is not accurate enough for supporting decision making. Two key areas of further development were identified: the input data preparation and identifying and handling of (i.e. eliminating or merging) interacting cost elements in the simulation model. Further development in both of the mentioned areas can be carried out by co-operating with the power companies as they are the sources of the original data. (orig.)

  12. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  13. Determinants of disparities between perceived and physiological risk of falling among elderly people: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delbaere, Kim; Close, Jacqueline C T; Brodaty, Henry; Sachdev, Perminder; Lord, Stephen R

    2010-08-18

    To gain an understanding of elderly people's fear of falling by exploring the prevalence and determinants of perceived and physiological fall risk and to understand the role of disparities in perceived and physiological risk in the cause of falls. Prospective cohort study. Community sample drawn from eastern Sydney, Australia. 500 men and women aged 70-90 years. Baseline assessment of medical, physiological, and neuropsychological measures, with physiological fall risk estimated with the physiological profile assessment, and perceived fall risk estimated with the falls efficacy scale international. Participants were followed up monthly for falls over one year. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that perceived and physiological fall risk were both independent predictors of future falls. Classification tree analysis was used to split the sample into four groups (vigorous, anxious, stoic, and aware) based on the disparity between physiological and perceived risk of falling. Perceived fall risk was congruent with physiological fall risk in the vigorous (144 (29%)) and aware (202 (40%)) groups. The anxious group (54 (11%)) had a low physiological risk but high perceived fall risk, which was related to depressive symptoms (P=0.029), neurotic personality traits (P=0.026), and decreased executive functioning (P=0.010). The stoic group (100 (20%)) had a high physiological risk but low perceived fall risk, which was protective for falling and mediated through a positive outlook on life (P=0.001) and maintained physical activity and community participation (P=0.048). Many elderly people underestimated or overestimated their risk of falling. Such disparities between perceived and physiological fall risk were primarily associated with psychological measures and strongly influenced the probability of falling. Measures of both physiological and perceived fall risk should be included in fall risk assessments to allow tailoring of interventions for preventing falls in

  14. Breast cancer risk in ataxia telangiectasia (AT) heterozygotes: haplotype study in French AT families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janin, N; Andrieu, N; Ossian, K; Laugé, A; Croquette, M-F; Griscelli, C; Debré, M; Bressac-de-Paillerets, B; Aurias, A; Stoppa-Lyonnet, D

    1999-01-01

    Epidemiological studies in ataxia telangiectasia (AT) families have suggested that AT heterozygotes could have an increased cancer risk, especially breast cancer (BC) in women. It has also been suggested that an increased sensibility of AT heterozygotes to the effect of ionizing radiation could be responsible for the increased BC risk. BC relative risk (RR) estimation in AT heterozygotes within families ascertained through AT children is presented here. Family data collected included demographic characteristics, occurrence of cancers, past radiation exposures and blood samples. DNA samples were studied using seven ATM linked microsatellites markers allowing AT haplotypes reconstitution. The relative risk of BC was assessed using French estimated incidence rates. A significant increase risk of BC is found among obligate ATM heterozygotes with a point estimate of 3.32 (P = 0.002). BC relative risk calculated according to age is significantly increased among the obligate ATM heterozygotes female relatives with an age ≤ 44 years (RR = 4.55, P = 0.005). The BC relative risk is statistically borderline among the obligate ATM heterozygote female relatives with an age ≥ 45 years (RR = 2.48, P = 0.08). The estimated BC relative risk among ATM heterozygotes is consistent with previously published data. However, the increased risk is only a little higher than classical reproductive risk factors and similar to the risk associated with a first-degree relative affected by BC. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10362113

  15. PARS risk charts: A 10-year study of risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases in Eastern Mediterranean Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nizal Sarrafzadegan

    Full Text Available This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ≥35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3% were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC, calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell's C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76 and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D'Agostino χ2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29. The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year

  16. Homocysteine Slovakia study: study design and occurrence of hyperhomocysteinaemia and other risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lietava, J; B, B Vohnout; Dukat, A; Fodor, G J

    2012-01-01

    Slovakia belong to the European Union countries with the high incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in general and IHD in particular. Homocystein-Slovakia is crossectional population study realised in subjects in high risk age 35-75 years in two groups. The first consists of patients with verified stable ischemic heart disease (IHD) (M= 152; F = 167) aged 60.8±9.37 yrs (males) res. 63.1±7.56 years (females) (NS) who were randomly selected from two cardiological registrars. Second population was formed by general population who were dichotomised according their medical records into IHD patients (M= 31, F= 53) and apparently healthy controls (M= 47; F = 55), the later in significantly younger age as patients, but in same age for intergender comparison 49.6±10.3 vs 46.6±9.2 yrs (NS). We found very high prevalence of classic as well as newer risk factors and risk markers both in IHD patients and in controls. Increased homocysteinen (Hcy >15 µmo/l for males and Hcy >13 µmo/l for females) was found even in 32.9 % of patients and 13.6 % of controls (pHomocystein Slovakia study found very high prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia in patients with stable ischemic heart disease. Even the prevalence in healthy controls correspond to data reported for MI patients in Western countries. Vitamins regulating metabolism of homocysteine also shown high prevalence, however, without differences between IHD patients and controls (Tab. 5, Fig. 1, Ref. 27).

  17. Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Ravindra, M.K.

    1983-01-01

    Seismic fragilities of critical structures and equipment are developed as families of conditional failure frequency curves plotted against peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on available data combined with judicious extrapolation of design information on plant structures and equipment. Representative values of fragility parameters for typical modern nuclear power plants are provided. Based on the fragility evaluation for about a dozen nuclear power plants, it is proposed that unnecessary conservatism existing in current seismic design practice could be removed by properly accounting for inelastic energy absorption capabilities of structures. The paper discusses the key contributors to seismic risk and the significance of possible correlation between component failures and potential design and construction errors

  18. Poverty and sexual concurrency: a case study of STI risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Emma K; Leonard, Lori; Lenoir, Chavonne; Ellen, Jonathan M

    2008-08-01

    This paper is about sexual concurrency, or maintaining multiple sexual partnerships that overlap in time. Sexual concurrency is a concept that is used in the field of public health to explain the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Sexual concurrency has also been proposed as a site of intervention to reduce sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates, particularly among those populations who carry the heaviest STI burden: adolescents and African Americans. In this paper, we use ethnographic data collected from a group of African American adolescents living in Baltimore to examine the socially produced configurations of risks and relationships that are obscured by the term sexual concurrency. The data we present show the limits of this concept, and suggest that structural reforms, including improvements to education, drug treatment, and work opportunities, are necessary to reduce racial disparities in STI rates.

  19. Cereal fiber intake may reduce risk of gastric adenocarcinomas : The EPIC-EURGAST study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendez, M. A.; Pera, Guillem; Aguclo, Antonio; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Palli, Domenico; Boeing, Heiner; Carneiro, Ftima; Berrino, Franco; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Tumino, Rosario; Panico, Salvatore; Berglund, Goeran; Manjer, Jonas; Johansson, Ingegerd; Stenling, Roger; Martinez, Carmen; Dorronsoro, Miren; Barricarte, Aurelio; Tormo, Maria J.; Quiros, Jose R.; Allen, Naomi; Key, Timothy J.; Bingham, Sheila; Linseisen, Jakob; Kaaks, Rudolf; Overvad, Kim; Jensen, Majken; Olsen, Anja; Tjonneland, Anne; Peeters, Petra H. M.; Numans, Mattijs E.; Ocke, Marga C.; Clavel-Chapelon, Francoise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lund, Eiliv; Slimani, Nadia; Jenab, Mazda; Ferrari, Pietro; Riboli, Elio; Gonzalez, Carlos A.

    2007-01-01

    Numerous case-control studies suggest dietary fiber may reduce risk of gastric cancer, but this has not been confirmed prospectively. A previous case-control study reported reduced risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinomas associated with cereal fiber, but not with fruit or vegetable fiber. To date,

  20. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...