WorldWideScience

Sample records for risks future reproduction

  1. The Future of human reproduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Overall, Christine

    1989-01-01

    ... Contradictions III SOCIAL POLICY QUESTIONS Pregnancy as Justification for Loss of Juridical Autonomy Sanda Rodgers 174 Prenatal Diagnosis: Reproductive Choice? Reproductive Control? Abby Lippman ...

  2. The future of human reproduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Overall, Christine

    1989-01-01

    ... Contradictions III SOCIAL POLICY QUESTIONS Pregnancy as Justification for Loss of Juridical Autonomy Sanda Rodgers 174 Prenatal Diagnosis: Reproductive Choice? Reproductive Control? Abby Lippman ...

  3. Occupational reproductive health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filkins, K; Kerr, M J

    1993-01-01

    The potentially harmful effects on women of certain workplace exposures are widely appreciated, and steps to control these have included legislative efforts such as right-to-know laws of well as corporate policies mandating selective restriction of fertile women, which are illegal under federal civil rights laws. This chapter reviews the various occupational health risks reproductive women face in the workplace but also considers the effects of other genetic, medical, social, infectious, and environmental factors which may be of even greater concern than most occupational factors.

  4. The Future of Reproductive Autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Josephine; Zacharias, Rachel L

    2017-12-01

    In a project The Hastings Center is now running on the future of prenatal testing, we are encountering clear examples, both in established law and in the practices of individual providers, of failures to respect women's reproductive autonomy: when testing is not offered to certain demographics of women, for instance, or when the choices of women to terminate or continue pregnancies are prohibited or otherwise not supported. But this project also raises puzzles for reproductive autonomy. We have learned that some clinicians and patients do not discuss the fact that prenatal testing can lead to a decision about whether to terminate a pregnancy-they just don't talk about it. And while the decision whether to agree to prenatal screening and diagnostic testing is to be made with women's free and informed consent, many screening tests have been routinized in such a way that some women do not even recall agreeing to testing, while others feel that agreeing to testing is what their clinicians expect of them or that the testing is necessary to protect themselves and their families from the significant financial hardship of raising a child with a disability. In the face of these pressures, can one really say that women are freely choosing to undergo testing or are freely choosing to continue or terminate a pregnancy following receipt of test results? The reality of these pressures is requiring us to consider expanding the scope of our investigation beyond the clinical encounter to the broader context-to think harder about what reproductive autonomy means and how best to enhance it. © 2017 The Hastings Center.

  5. Chance, choice, and the future of reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W B

    1983-11-01

    The evolution of reproduction has been characterized by the development of complex biological and behavioral mechanisms that serve to regulate chance events. Human reproduction has been characterized by the increasing importance of individual choice. Some contemporary manifestations of this broad trend are the high incidence of contraceptive and "proceptive" behavior among couples in Western, industrialized nations. The former behavior willingly attempts to prevent conception while the latter actively attempts to induce conception (such as concentrating intercourse around the time of ovulation). Both patterns of behavior indicate that a choice is being made. A 3-year study of 1000 women revealed proceptive behavior as the most important factor predicting occurance of conception among married couples in the United States. The general strategeis people follow while making childbearing decisions: termination, sequencing, and pre-planning form a continuum following the historical trend toward greater reproductive control. In the terminating strategy, a couple makes no decision about child bearing until the number of children they have become enough or too much. In the sequencing strategy, decisions to have children are made 1 child at a time until a satisfactory limit is reached. In the pre-planning strategy, a plan is worked out ahead of time and is subsequently carried out. As new reproductive technology is introduced and as progressive change is made in society's reproductive related values and beliefs, choice will continue to dominate chance as the highly likely trend for the future of reproduction. Surrogate maternity is just 1 example of this trend. However, these new options, which culminate in the theory and practice of "progensis," (still in its infancy), as well as offering a rich opportunity, can also incur psychological burdens on a couple. Thus, as with any kind of freedom, these developments will require care, caution and responsibility.

  6. Women Reproductive Rights in India: Prospective Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivas Kosgi

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Reproductive rights were established as a subset of the human rights. Parents have a basic human right to determine freely and responsibly the number and the spacing of their children. Issues regarding the reproductive rights are vigorously contested, regardless of the population’s socioeconomic level, religion or culture. Following review article discusses reproductive rights with respect to Indian context focusing on socio economic and cultural aspects. Also discusses sensitization of government and judicial agencies in protecting the reproductive rights with special focus on the protecting the reproductive rights of people with disability (mental illness and mental retardation.

  7. Bioethics and Biopolitics: Presents and Futures of Reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporesi, Silvia

    2017-06-01

    This Bioethics and Biopolitics: Presents and Futures of Reproduction symposium draws together a series of articles that were each submitted independently by their authors to the JBI and which explore the biopower axis in the externalization of reproduction in four contexts: artificial gestation (ectogenesis), PGD for sex selection, women's (reproductive) rights, and testicular cryopreservation (TCCP). While one contribution explores a "future" of reproduction, the other three explore a "present," or better, explore different "presents." What may counts as "present," and what may count as "future," has dramatically different connotations depending on the geographical declination of the tense.

  8. Women Reproductive Rights in India: Prospective Future.

    OpenAIRE

    Kosgi, S; Hegde, VN; Rao, S; Bhat, US; Pai, N

    2011-01-01

    Reproductive rights were established as a subset of the human rights. Parents have a basic human right to determine freely and responsibly the number and the spacing of their children. Issues regarding the reproductive rights are vigorously contested, regardless of the population’s socioeconomic level, religion or culture. Following review article discusses reproductive rights with respect to Indian context focusing on socio economic and cultural aspects. Also discusses sensitization of gover...

  9. THE RISK FACTORS FOR INITIAL REPRODUCTIVE LOSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Екатерина Игоревна Лебедева

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion. Mixed somatic and gynecological pathology, abnormalities in hemostasis, combination of inherited and acquired thrombogenic risk factors dominates in women with initial reproductive loss, though only 37,3 % such pregnancies have favorable outcome.

  10. Parasite dispersal risk tolerance is mediated by its reproductive value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Maxcy P; Delaplane, Keith S

    2017-10-01

    Parasite dispersal theory draws heavily upon epidemiological SIR models in which host status (susceptible (S), infected (I), or recovered (R)) is used to study parasite dispersal evolution. In contrast to these extrinsically host-centric drivers, in this study we focus on an intrinsic driver, the parasite's reproductive value (predicted future offspring) as a regulator of the extent to which the individual will engage in risky dispersal behaviour. As a model system we use the honeybee Apis mellifera and its ectoparasite, the mite Varroa destructor . Mite reproduction happens exclusively inside cells of bee brood, and newly emerged fecund mites may parasitize either a homocolonial brood cell (low risk dispersal) or emigrate to a new bee colony via phoretic attachment to mature forager bees (high risk dispersal). In an empirical bioassay, prepartum mites (high reproductive value) and postpartum mites (low reproductive value) were offered a choice of newly emerged homocolonial worker bees (low risk), homocolonial pollen forager bees (high risk), or heterocolonial pollen foragers (high risk). A preference for newly emerged bees was earlier and more strongly sustained among prepartum mites. This suggests comparatively greater dispersal risk tolerance among postpartum mites with lower reproductive value. A dangerous bid for dispersal may be adaptive if the individual has already successfully reproduced and the rewards for successful dispersal are sufficiently large.

  11. Student standpoints relevant for future reproductive behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuburović Ankica

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the various standpoints of students on their motivation for parenthood, planning and deciding on birth giving, influence between marriage and parenthood, parent role complexity and responsibility, on the knowledge of effect and consequences of the problem of insufficient birth giving, with an aim of getting to know the main characteristics of their possible reproductive behavior. The analyzed standpoints are part of a more comprehensive and inclusive research, carried out on a sample of 1494 surveyed persons (1000 secondary-school pupils and 494 students in four biggest regional centers - Belgrade, Novi Sad, Kragujevac and Niš. The orientation only to student’s standpoints had an aim to more completely analyze the already abundant empirical material, which is acceptable due to the fact that students are closer to beginning of birth giving according to their age-situation characteristic. The willingness and desire of the students to become parents is significant, but this is only one of their varied life aspirations (importance of partnership, professional engagement…. The intention is to bring into accordance the realization of the most important roles, which actually indicates to a fairly uniform importance in satisfying the basic individual needs. Apart from that, the need for parenthood is dominantly emotional and altruistic, which can be satisfied by having only one child. Possible reproductive norms - which are directed to having two children, whereby they are higher than the current fertility rates, but also somewhat lower normatively determined expectations in relation to the desired number of children, as well as a significant orientation towards marriage and parenthood and the existence of the knowledge on the problem of the impossibility of simple reproduction and conscience of social need for population reproduction - represent a gap for realization of measures for motivating birth giving and parenthood

  12. Reproductive History and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, N. M.; Jorgensen, K. T.; Stenager, E.

    2011-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that reproductive factors may be involved in the etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied associations of reproductive history with MS risk in a population-based setting. Methods: Using national databases, we established a cohort comprising 4.4 million...... Danish men and women born between 1935 and 1989 and alive in 1968 or later. We obtained information about their live-born children, pregnancy losses, pregnancy complications, and infertility diagnoses. MS cases in the cohort were identified through 2004 in the Danish Register of Multiple Sclerosis...

  13. Adolescent Reproductive Knowledge, Attitudes, and Beliefs and Future Fatherhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfield, Craig F; Duncan, Greg; Peters, Sarah; Rutsohn, Joshua; McDade, Thomas W; Adam, Emma K; Coley, Rebekah Levine; Chase-Lansdale, Patricia Lindsay

    2016-05-01

    With a growing focus on the importance of men's reproductive health, including preconception health, the ways in which young men's knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs (KAB) predict their reproductive paths are understudied. To determine if reproductive KAB predicts fatherhood status, timing and residency (living with child or not). Reproductive KAB and fatherhood outcomes were analyzed from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a 20-year, nationally representative study of individuals from adolescence into adulthood. Four measures of reproductive KAB were assessed during adolescence in waves I and II. A generalized linear latent and mixed model predicted future fatherhood status (nonfather, resident/nonresident father, adolescent father) and timing while controlling for other socio-demographic variables. Of the 10,253 men, 3,425 were fathers (686 nonresident/2,739 resident) by wave IV. Higher risky sexual behavior scores significantly increased the odds of becoming nonresident father (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; p fatherhood and residency status. Strategies that address adolescent males' reproductive KAB are needed in the prevention of unintended reproductive consequences such as early and nonresident fatherhood. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Corticosterone mediated costs of reproduction link current to future breeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossin, Glenn T; Phillips, Richard A; Lattin, Christine R; Romero, L Michael; Williams, Tony D

    2013-11-01

    Life-history theory predicts that costs are associated with reproduction. One possible mediator of costs involves the secretion of glucocorticoid hormones, which in birds can be measured in feathers grown during the breeding period. Glucocorticoids mediate physiological responses to unpredictable environmental or other stressors, but they can also function as metabolic regulators during more predictable events such as reproduction. Here we show that corticosterone ("Cort") in feathers grown during the breeding season reflects reproductive effort in two Antarctic seabird species (giant petrels, Macronectes spp.). In females of both species, but not males, feather Cort ("fCort") was nearly 1.5-fold higher in successful than failed breeders (those that lost their eggs/chicks), suggesting a cost of successful reproduction, i.e., high fCort levels in females reflect the elevated plasma Cort levels required to support high metabolic demands of chick-rearing. Successful breeding also led to delayed moult prior to winter migration. The fCort levels and pre-migration moult score that we measured at the end of current breeding were predictive of subsequent reproductive effort in the following year. Birds with high fCort and a delayed initiation of moult were much more likely to defer breeding in the following year. Cort levels and the timing of moult thus provide a potential mechanism for the tradeoff between current and future reproduction. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Genetic and epigenetic risks of assisted reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ziru; Wang, Yinyu; Lin, Jing; Xu, Jingjing; Ding, Guolian; Huang, Hefeng

    2017-10-01

    Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is used primarily for infertility treatments to achieve pregnancy and involves procedures such as in vitro fertilization (IVF), intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), and cryopreservation. Moreover, preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) of ART is used in couples for genetic reasons. In ART treatments, gametes and zygotes are exposed to a series of non-physiological processes and culture media. Although the majority of children born with this treatment are healthy, some concerns remain regarding the safety of this technology. Animal studies and follow-up studies of ART-borne children suggested that ART was associated with an increased incidence of genetic, physical, or developmental abnormalities, although there are also observations that contradict these findings. As IVF, ICSI, frozen-thawed embryo transfer, and PGD manipulate gametes and embryo at a time that is important for reprogramming, they may affect epigenetic stability, leading to gamete/embryo origins of adult diseases. In fact, ART offspring have been reported to have an increased risk of gamete/embryo origins of adult diseases, such as early-onset diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and so on. In this review, we will discuss evidence related to genetic, especially epigenetic, risks of assisted reproduction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk of hypertensive disorders in pregnancies following assisted reproductive technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opdahl, S; Henningsen, A A; Tiitinen, A

    2015-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION: Is the risk of hypertensive disorders in pregnancies conceived following specific assisted reproductive technology (ART) procedures different from the risk in spontaneously conceived (SC) pregnancies? SUMMARY ANSWER: ART pregnancies had a higher risk of hypertensive disorders, in ...

  17. Reproductive health education and sexual risk among high-risk female adolescents and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancheta, Rosedelia; Hynes, Colin; Shrier, Lydia A

    2005-04-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the associations of sources, content, and timing of reproductive health education with cognitive and behavioral sexual risk in a sample of high-risk female adolescents and young adults. Female adolescents and young adults (n=113, median age 17 years) receiving treatment for a sexually transmitted disease (STD) reported sources of reproductive health education, topics covered, and when first formal education occurred. Dependent variables included sexual risk knowledge; condom attitudes, negotiation skills, and use (consistent and at last sex); and number of sexual partners. Most participants reported receiving reproductive health education from both parental (80%) and formal sources (92%). Parents discussed the menstrual cycle (94%) more frequently than other sex education topics, while formal sources focused most on teaching about STDs (91%). Although median age of first formal instruction was 12 years, 26% of girls received their first formal education during or after the year they initiated coitus. Girls with a parental source of education and those receiving formal instruction on pregnancy reported greater ability to negotiate condom use. Girls who received education later in relation to the onset of sexual activity and those with a parental source of education reported more sexual partners. Early reproductive health education and education from both parental and formal sources is associated with reduced sexual risk among high-risk adolescent girls. Interestingly, receiving parental education is also associated with more sexual partners, suggesting that parental educational efforts may be reactive to their daughters' increasing sexual risk behavior. Future research should examine multiple sources of reproductive health education and the timing of education from these sources to enhance understanding the dynamic interactions between reproductive health education and adolescent sexual risk.

  18. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  19. Cost of reproduction in a long-lived bird: incubation effort reduces immune function and future reproduction

    OpenAIRE

    Hanssen, S A; Hasselquist, Dennis; Folstad, I; Erikstad, K E

    2005-01-01

    Life-history theory predicts that increased current reproductive effort should lead to a fitness cost. This cost of reproduction may be observed as reduced survival or future reproduction, and may be caused by temporal suppression of immune function in stressed or hard-working individuals. In birds, consideration of the costs of incubating eggs has largely been neglected in favour of the costs of brood rearing. We manipulated incubation demand in two breeding seasons (2000 and 2001) in female...

  20. Risk of reproductive complications following chlamydia testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Bethan; Turner, Katy M E; Frølund, Maria

    2016-01-01

    of pelvic inflammatory disease. Therefore, control programmes must prevent first and repeat infections to improve women's reproductive health. FUNDING: Unrestricted partial funding from Frederiksberg Kommune, Frederiksberg, Denmark. BD held an Medical Research Council Population Health Scientist Fellowship...

  1. Imaging the male reproductive tract: current trends and future directions.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Futterer, J.J.; Heijmink, S.W.T.P.J.; Spermon, J.R.

    2008-01-01

    The male reproductive system encompasses several organs: the testes, ejaculatory ducts, seminal vesicles, prostate, and penis. The function of this system is to accomplish reproduction. Diagnostic imaging modalities, such as ultrasound, CT, MR imaging, and positron emission tomography (PET), are

  2. Risk management with options and futures under liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adam-Müller, A F A; Panaretou, A

    2009-01-01

    Futures hedging creates liquidity risk through marking to market. Liquidity risk matters if interim losses on a futures position have to be financed at a markup over the risk-free rate. This study analyzes the optimal risk management and production decisions of a firm facing joint price and liquidity risk. It provides a rationale for the use of options on futures in imperfect capital markets. If liquidity risk materializes, the firm sells options on futures in order to partly cover this liqui...

  3. Male reproductive organs are at risk from environmental hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonde, Jens Peter

    2010-01-01

    Male reproductive disorders that are of interest from an environmental point of view include sexual dysfunction, infertility, cryptorchidism, hypospadias and testicular cancer. Several reports suggest declining sperm counts and increase of these reproductive disorders in some areas during some time...... are the best documented risk factors for impaired male reproductive function and include physical exposures (radiant heat, ionizing radiation, high frequency electromagnetic radiation), chemical exposures (some solvents as carbon disulfide and ethylene glycol ethers, some pesticides as dibromochloropropane...... reproductive toxicants. New data show that environmental low-level exposure to biopersistent pollutants in the diet may pose a risk to people in all parts of the world. For other toxicants the evidence is only suggestive and further evaluation is needed before conclusions can be drawn. Whether compounds...

  4. Aphid reproductive investment in response to mortality risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Aphids are striking in their prodigious reproductive capacity and reliance on microbial endosymbionts, which provision their hosts with necessary amino acids and provide protection against parasites and heat stress. Perhaps as a result of this bacterial dependence, aphids have limited immune function that may leave them vulnerable to bacterial pathogens. An alternative, non-immunological response that may be available to infected aphids is to increase reproduction, thereby ameliorating fitness loss from infection. Such a response would reduce the need to mount a potentially energetically costly immune response, and would parallel that of other hosts that alter life-history traits when there is a risk of infection. Here we examined whether pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) respond to immunological challenges by increasing reproduction. As a comparison to the response to the internal cue of risk elicited by immunological challenge, we also exposed pea aphids to an external cue of risk - the aphid alarm pheromone (E)-β-farnesene (EBF), which is released in the presence of predators. For each challenge, we also examined whether the presence of symbionts modified the host response, as maintaining host fitness in the face of challenge would benefit both the host and its dependent bacteria. Results We found that aphids stabbed abdominally with a sterile needle had reduced fecundity relative to control aphids but that aphids stabbed with a needle bearing heat-killed bacteria had reproduction intermediate, and statistically indistinguishable, to the aphids stabbed with a sterile needle and the controls. Aphids with different species of facultative symbiotic bacteria had different reproductive patterns overall, but symbionts in general did not alter aphid reproduction in response to bacterial exposure. However, in response to exposure to alarm pheromone, aphids with Hamiltonella defensa or Serratia symbiotica symbiotic infections increased reproduction but those

  5. Reproductive profiles and risk of breast cancer subtypes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brouckaert, Olivier; Rudolph, Anja; Laenen, Annouschka

    2017-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have shown that reproductive factors are differentially associated with breast cancer (BC) risk by subtypes. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between reproductive factors and BC subtypes, and whether these vary by age at diagnosis. Methods: We used...... pooled data on tumor markers (estrogen and progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)) and reproductive risk factors (parity, age at first full-time pregnancy (FFTP) and age at menarche) from 28,095 patients with invasive BC from 34 studies participating in the Breast Cancer...... the risk for TNBC (OR = 0.78, CI 0.70-0.88, p diagnosis, whereas the association with luminal HER2-like BC was present only for early onset BC....

  6. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  7. Health, equity, and reproductive risks in the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, C R; Paul, M; Rosofsky, R

    1990-01-01

    Potential exposure to occupational reproductive hazards raises complex questions regarding health and gender discrimination in the workplace. On the one hand, growing scientific evidence suggests that workplace exposures to either sex can cause a wide range of disorders ranging from infertility to adverse pregnancy outcomes. On the other hand, policies alleging to protect workers from reproductive risks have often reinforced gender inequalities in the workplace. This article sheds new light on this continuing debate through an examination of the policy insights suggested by a recent study of reproductive hazard policies in Massachusetts. In what ways do policies evidenced in this study reflect or differ from historical patterns of protectionism? The article presents a political-legal review of reproductive hazard policies in the workplace, then examines the policy implications of the Massachusetts study, and finally presents the prescriptions for change that are implied by both the historical and contemporary evidence.

  8. Cardiometabolic Risk in PCOS: More than a Reproductive Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torchen, Laura C.

    2018-01-01

    Purpose of Review Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is diagnosed by its characteristic reproductive features. However, PCOS is also associated with metabolic abnormalities, including insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction. The severity of these abnormalities varies according to the reproductive phenotype, with the so-called NIH or classic phenotype conferring the greatest metabolic risk. The increased risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) is well-established among affected women with the NIH phenotype, but whether PCOS also confers an increased risk for cardiovascular events remains unknown. Recent Findings Recent studies in daughters of affected women have found evidence for pancreatic β-cell dysfunction prior to menarche. Further, genetic analyses have provided evidence that metabolic abnormalities such as obesity and insulin resistance contribute to the pathogenesis of PCOS. Summary PCOS increases the risk for T2D. However, the risk for cardiovascular disease has not been quantified, and prospective, longitudinal studies are still critically needed. PMID:29128916

  9. Cardiometabolic Risk in PCOS: More than a Reproductive Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torchen, Laura C

    2017-11-11

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is diagnosed by its characteristic reproductive features. However, PCOS is also associated with metabolic abnormalities, including insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction. The severity of these abnormalities varies according to the reproductive phenotype, with the so-called NIH or classic phenotype conferring the greatest metabolic risk. The increased risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) is well established among affected women with the NIH phenotype, but whether PCOS also confers an increased risk for cardiovascular events remains unknown. Recent studies in daughters of affected women have found evidence for pancreatic β-cell dysfunction prior to menarche. Further, genetic analyses have provided evidence that metabolic abnormalities such as obesity and insulin resistance contribute to the pathogenesis of PCOS. PCOS increases the risk for T2D. However, the risk for cardiovascular disease has not been quantified, and prospective, longitudinal studies are still critically needed.

  10. Reproductive History and Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Common Cancer Types Recurrent Cancer Common Cancer Types Bladder Cancer Breast Cancer Colorectal Cancer Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer ... 4 ). This risk reduction is limited to hormone receptor –positive breast cancer; age at first full-term ...

  11. Costs of Reproduction in Breeding Female Mallards: Predation Risk during Incubation Drives Annual Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd W. Arnold

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The effort expended on reproduction may entail future costs, such as reduced survival or fecundity, and these costs can have an important influence on life-history optimization. For birds with precocial offspring, hypothesized costs of reproduction have typically emphasized nutritional and energetic investments in egg formation and incubation. We measured seasonal survival of 3856 radio-marked female Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos from arrival on the breeding grounds through brood-rearing or cessation of breeding. There was a 2.5-fold direct increase in mortality risk associated with incubating nests in terrestrial habitats, whereas during brood-rearing when breeding females occupy aquatic habitats, mortality risk reached seasonal lows. Mortality risk also varied with calendar date and was highest during periods when large numbers of Mallards were nesting, suggesting that prey-switching behaviors by common predators may exacerbate risks to adults in all breeding stages. Although prior investments in egg laying and incubation affected mortality risk, most relationships were not consistent with the cost of reproduction hypothesis; birds with extensive prior investments in egg production or incubation typically survived better, suggesting that variation in individual quality drove both relationships. We conclude that for breeding female Mallards, the primary cost of reproduction is a fixed cost associated with placing oneself at risk to predators while incubating nests in terrestrial habitats.

  12. Reproductive immunology: current status and future directions (part I).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeva, Elena

    2010-12-01

    Extensive research work over the past couple of decades has indicated a series of intricate relations between immune and reproductive systems. A range of reproductive immunology topics including the roles of adoptive and innate immunity in infertility and pregnancy, the immune system's role in induction of labor and preterm delivery, and immuno-modulatory effects of the female sex hormones will be discussed in this and the next issue of the Journal. The implications of this research on the development of novel therapeutic approaches are also addressed.

  13. Fertility drugs, reproductive strategies and ovarian cancer risk

    OpenAIRE

    Tomao, Federica; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Spinelli, Gian Paolo; Stati, Valeria; Prete, Alessandra Anna; Prinzi, Natalie; Sinjari, Marsela; Vici, Patrizia; Papa, Anselmo; Chiotti, Maria Stefania; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi; Tomao, Silverio

    2014-01-01

    Several adverse effects have been related to infertility treatments, such as cancer development. In particular, the relationship between infertility, reproductive strategies, and risk of gynecological cancers has aroused much interest in recent years. The evaluation of cancer risk among women treated for infertility is very complex, mainly because of many factors that can contribute to occurrence of cancer in these patients (including parity status). This article addresses the possible associ...

  14. Leptin and Reproduction: Past Milestones, Present Undertakings and Future Endeavors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chehab, Farid F.

    2014-01-01

    The association between leptin and reproduction originated with the leptin-mediated correction of sterility in ob/ob mice and initiation of reproductive function in normal female mice. The uncovering of a central leptin pathway regulating food intake prompted the dissection of neuroendocrine mechanisms involving leptin in the metabolic control of reproduction. The absence of leptin receptors on GnRH neurons incited a search for intermediary neurons situated between leptin responsive and GnRH neurons. This review addresses the most significant findings that have furthered our understanding of recent progress in this new field. The role of leptin in puberty was impacted by the discovery of neurons that co-express kisspeptin, neurokinin B and dynorphin and that could act as leptin intermediates. Furthermore, the identification of first-order leptin-responsive neurons in the premammilary ventral nucleus and other brain regions opens new avenues to explore their relationship to GnRH neurons. Central to these advances is the unveiling that AgRP/NPY neurons project onto GnRH and kisspeptin neurons, allowing a crosstalk between food intake and reproduction. Finally, whereas puberty is a state of leptin sensitivity, mid-gestation represents a state of leptin resistance aimed at building energy stores to sustain pregnancy and lactation. Mechanisms underlying leptin resistance in pregnancy have lagged, however the establishment of this natural state is significant. Reproduction and energy balance are tightly controlled and backed up by redundant mechanisms that are critical for the survival of our species. It will be the goal of the next decade to shed new light on these complex and essential pathways. PMID:25118207

  15. Reproductive factors and Parkinson's disease risk in Danish women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greene, N; Lassen, C F; Rugbjerg, K

    2014-01-01

    and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: After adjusting for smoking, caffeine and alcohol use, education, age, and family Parkinson's disease history, inverse associations between Parkinson's disease and early menarche (first period at ≤11 years), oral contraceptives, high parity (≥4 children) and bilateral...... and fertile life length, age at menopause or post-menopausal hormone treatment was found. CONCLUSIONS: Reproductive factors related to women's early- to mid-reproductive lives appear to be predictive of subsequent Parkinson's disease risk whereas factors occurring later in life seem less important....

  16. Light pollution, reproductive function and cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    At present, light pollution (exposure to light-at-night) both in the form of occupational exposure during night work and as a personal choice and life style, is experienced by numerous night-active members of our society. Disruption of the circadian rhythms induced by light pollution has been associated with cancer in humans. There are epidemiological evidences of increased breast and colon cancer risk in shift workers. An inhibition of the pineal gland function with exposure to the constant light (LL) regimen promoted carcinogenesis whereas the light deprivation inhibits the carcinogenesis. Treatment with pineal indole hormone melatonin inhibits carcinogenesis in pinealectomized rats or animals kept at the standard light/dark regimen (LD) or at the LL regimen. These observations might lead to use melatonin for cancer prevention in groups of humans at risk of light pollution.

  17. Does breastfeeding influence future sperm quality and reproductive hormones?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laustsen, J M; Jensen, M S; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2011-01-01

    was not statistically significantly associated with sperm concentration, total sperm count, sperm motility or morphology, oligozoospermia, follicle-stimulating hormone, inhibin B, luteinizing hormone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), the calculated level of free testosterone, free oestradiol, the free testosterone...... testosterone nor free oestradiol was different between the two groups. This study shows no association between breastfeeding and sperm quality or reproductive hormones and a strong association is unlikely. A larger study would be needed to detect more subtle effects....

  18. Involvement of galectin-1 in reproduction: past, present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos, Gabriela; Freitag, Nancy; Tirado-González, Irene; Unverdorben, Laura; Jeschke, Udo; Thijssen, Victor L J L; Blois, Sandra M

    2014-01-01

    After recognition of its pivotal contribution to fetomaternal tolerance, the study of galectin-1 (gal-1) functions in the context of pregnancy became an attractive topic in reproductive medicine. Despite considerable advances in the understanding of the immuno- and growth-regulatory properties of gal-1 at the fetal-maternal interface, many functional aspects of this lectin in reproduction are only emerging. The published literature was searched using Pubmed focusing on gal-1 signalling and functional properties at the maternal-fetal interface, including data on its implication in pregnancy disorders and malignancies of the female reproductive system. Papers discussing animal and human studies were included. This review provides an overview of gal-1 functions during pregnancy, such as modulation of maternal immune responses and roles in embryo implantation and placentation. We also emphasize the role of gal-1 in key regulatory processes, including trophoblast migration, invasion, syncytium formation and expression of non-classical MHC class I molecules (HLA-G). In addition, we argue in favour of gal-1 pro-angiogenic properties, as observed in tumourigenesis and other pathological settings, and its implication in the angiogenesis process associated with early gestation. The involvement of gal-1 in the regulation of different processes during the establishment, development and maintenance of pregnancy could be described as unique. Gal-1 has emerged as an important lectin with major functions in pregnancy.

  19. Cost of reproduction in a long-lived bird: incubation effort reduces immune function and future reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Sveinn Are; Hasselquist, Dennis; Folstad, Ivar; Erikstad, Kjell Einar

    2005-05-22

    Life-history theory predicts that increased current reproductive effort should lead to a fitness cost. This cost of reproduction may be observed as reduced survival or future reproduction, and may be caused by temporal suppression of immune function in stressed or hard-working individuals. In birds, consideration of the costs of incubating eggs has largely been neglected in favour of the costs of brood rearing. We manipulated incubation demand in two breeding seasons (2000 and 2001) in female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) by creating clutches of three and six eggs (natural range 3-6 eggs). The common eider is a long-lived sea-duck where females do not eat during the incubation period. Mass loss increased and immune function (lymphocyte levels and specific antibody response to the non-pathogenic antigens diphtheria and tetanus toxoid) was reduced in females incubating large clutches. The increased incubation effort among females assigned to large incubation demand did not lead to adverse effects on current reproduction or return rate in the next breeding season. However, large incubation demand resulted in long-term fitness costs through reduced fecundity the year after manipulation. Our data show that in eiders, a long-lived species, the cost of high incubation demand is paid in the currency of reduced future fecundity, possibly mediated by reduced immune function.

  20. Risk management of stock index futures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures is taken as a study object and a method of empirical analysis is adopted in order to verify the validity of the application of the value-at-risk (VaR) method in the risk measurement of the stock index futures market. The results suggest that under normal market conditions it is feasible to apply the VaR method in the measurement of the market risks of stock index futures. The daily VaR value of the stock index futures provides a foreseeable profit and loss of the stock ...

  1. Risk, Resilience, and Alternative Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garsten, Christina; Sörbom, Adrienne

    that the scenarios articulate a particular form of 'anticipatory knowledge', geared to contribute to the shaping of political priorities and agendas. The scenarios aim to shape perceptions of what constitute 'global problems', and how they might best be addressed and governed. Hence, they contribute...... to the anticipatory governance of WEF, i.e. governance geared to integrate imaginaries of the future into regulatory processes....

  2. Future Educators’ Gender Norms, Sexuality, and Reproductive Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leodoro J. Labrague

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This investigation explored gender-related norms, sexuality, and reproductive health among education students in a government university in Samar, Philippines. A descriptive-analytical design of study was adopted for this investigation and data were collected over a period of five months. Five hundred fifty (550 education students who were enrolled in the different year level completed the modified John Clelands’ Illustrative Questionnaire for Young People. Results indicated that 14.73% of the students reported having had early sexual experience where in 69.14 % had it unplanned. Among sexually active students, only 17.28% used contraception, with condoms and withdrawal as the most popular choices. Respondents were also found to have some misconceptions regarding HIV/AIDS and STI’s. Result also showed that dating was still acceptable, however, the idea of abortion and sexual coercion were considered wrong. No significant differences in the knowledge about HIV/AIDS and STI’s and gender norms were found across year level. Findings suggest a greater need for education, support and advocacy relative to sexuality so as to create a more positive school environment conducive for holistic growth and development of all students. Thus, school administrators should improve/enhance existing policies and programs relative to reproductive health among college students of the University such as health promotion activities, sexuality education, counseling and alike.

  3. Discounting risks in the far future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Risks to life and health in the future must be discounted in quantitative risk analysis. Yet, risks in the distant future become trivialized if any reasonable constant interest rate is used. Our responsibility toward future generations rules out such drastic discounting. A solution to this problem is proposed here, resting on the ethical principle that our duty with respect to saving lives is the same to all generations, whether in the near or far future. It is shown that when a choice between prospects involving different risks has a financing horizon T, then ordinary principles of discounting apply up to this time T, while no further discounting is justifiable after T. The principle implies that risk events beyond the financing horizon should be valued as if they occurred at the financing horizon

  4. Contraceptive prevalence, reproductive health and our common future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diczfalusy, E

    1991-03-01

    The 1980s will go into history as a decade of lost opportunities to increase contraceptive prevalence and improve reproductive health worldwide. As the decade closes, 500 million couples still have no access to fertility regulation, there are 30-50 million induced abortions each year, 15 million infant and child deaths (30% of all deaths worldwide), an estimated 250 million new cases of sexually transmitted diseases and 60-80 million infertile couples. One of the major problems is that many policy makers are still unimpressed with the global demographic reality. World population was less than 300 million 1991 years ago. It took some 1500 years to double this number by the time of the voyages of Columbus to America. The first billion was reached at the beginning of the last century and the second in the lifetime of the author, in 1927. Then it took less than 50 years to double this number to 4 billion by 1976. Global population is 5.3 billion today. In view of such figures, it is understandable that, historically, it was this demographic concern that in the 1960s persuaded many governments to support family planning programmes. During the subsequent decades, it was gradually recognized by developing country governments that family planning lowers infant, child and maternal mortality and morbidity and reduces the number of illegal abortions and their health hazards. Today, 52 developing country governments support family planning programmes for the demographic rationale, but 65 for the reproductive health and human rights rationale. Where do we go from here? That will mainly depend on the number of years it will take to reach replacement level of fertility (around 2.1 children per couple) worldwide. If the level is reached in 2010 (the low projection of the United Nations), global population will stabilize by the end of the 21st century at 8 billion; if it is reached in 2035 (medium projection), population will stabilize around 10 billion; however, if it is reached

  5. Fertility drugs, reproductive strategies and ovarian cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomao, Federica; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Spinelli, Gian Paolo; Stati, Valeria; Prete, Alessandra Anna; Prinzi, Natalie; Sinjari, Marsela; Vici, Patrizia; Papa, Anselmo; Chiotti, Maria Stefania; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi; Tomao, Silverio

    2014-01-01

    Several adverse effects have been related to infertility treatments, such as cancer development. In particular, the relationship between infertility, reproductive strategies, and risk of gynecological cancers has aroused much interest in recent years. The evaluation of cancer risk among women treated for infertility is very complex, mainly because of many factors that can contribute to occurrence of cancer in these patients (including parity status). This article addresses the possible association between the use of fertility treatments and the risk of ovarian cancer, through a scrupulous search of the literature published thus far in this field. Our principal objective was to give more conclusive answers on the question whether the use of fertility drug significantly increases ovarian cancer risk. Our analysis focused on the different types of drugs and different treatment schedules used. This study provides additional insights regarding the long-term relationships between fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer.

  6. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  7. Cancer and reproductive risks in the semiconductor industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaDou, Joseph; Bailar, John C

    2007-01-01

    Although many reproductive toxicants and carcinogens are used in the manufacture of semiconductor chips, and worrisome findings have been reported, no broad epidemiologic study has been conducted to define possible risks in a comprehensive way. With few exceptions, the American semiconductor industry has not supported access for independent studies. Older technologies are exported to newly industrialized countries as newer technologies are installed in Japan, the United States, and Europe. Thus there is particular concern about the many workers, mostly in countries that are still industrializing, who have jobs that use chemicals, technologies, and equipment that are no longer in use in developed countries. Since most countries lack cancer registries and have inadequate reproductive and cancer reporting mechanisms, industry efforts to control exposures to carcinogens are of particular importance. Government agencies, the courts, industry, publishers, and academia, on occasion, collude to ignore or to downplay the importance of occupational diseases. Examples of how this happens in the semiconductor industry are presented.

  8. Age at menopause, reproductive life span, and type 2 diabetes risk results from the EPIC-interAct Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, J.S.; Schouw, van der Y.T.; Onland-Moret, N.; Sharp, S.J.; Feskens, E.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVEAge at menopause is an important determinant of future health outcomes, but little is known about its relationship with type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of menopausal age and reproductive life span (menopausal age minus menarcheal age) with diabetes risk.RESEARCH DESIGN AND

  9. Male reproductive organs are at risk from environmental hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonde, Jens Peter

    2010-01-01

    are the best documented risk factors for impaired male reproductive function and include physical exposures (radiant heat, ionizing radiation, high frequency electromagnetic radiation), chemical exposures (some solvents as carbon disulfide and ethylene glycol ethers, some pesticides as dibromochloropropane......, ethylendibromide and DDT/DDE, some heavy metals as inorganic lead and mercury) and work processes such as metal welding. Improved working conditions in affluent countries have dramatically decreased known hazardous workplace exposures, but millions of workers in less affluent countries are at risk from...... as phthalates, bisphenol A and boron that are present in a large number of industrial and consumer products entails a risk remains to be established. The same applies to psychosocial stressors and use of mobile phones. Finally, there are data indicating a particular vulnerability of the fetal testis...

  10. Genetic Counselors' Experiences Regarding Communication of Reproductive Risks with Autosomal Recessive Conditions found on Cancer Panels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mets, Sarah; Tryon, Rebecca; Veach, Patricia McCarthy; Zierhut, Heather A

    2016-04-01

    The development of hereditary cancer genetic testing panels has altered genetic counseling practice. Mutations within certain genes on cancer panels pose not only a cancer risk, but also a reproductive risk for autosomal recessive conditions such as Fanconi anemia, constitutional mismatch repair deficiency syndrome, and ataxia telangiectasia. This study aimed to determine if genetic counselors discuss reproductive risks for autosomal recessive conditions associated with genes included on cancer panels, and if so, under what circumstances these risks are discussed. An on-line survey was emailed through the NSGC list-serv. The survey assessed 189 cancer genetic counselors' experiences discussing reproductive risks with patients at risk to carry a mutation or variant of uncertain significance (VUS) in a gene associated with both an autosomal dominant cancer risk and an autosomal recessive syndrome. Over half (n = 82, 55 %) reported having discussed reproductive risks; the remainder (n = 66, 45 %) had not. Genetic counselors who reported discussing reproductive risks primarily did so when patients had a positive result and were of reproductive age. Reasons for not discussing these risks included when a patient had completed childbearing or when a VUS was identified. Most counselors discussed reproductive risk after obtaining results and not during the informed consent process. There is inconsistency as to if and when the discussion of reproductive risks is taking place. The wide variation in responses suggests a need to develop professional guidelines for when and how discussions of reproductive risk for autosomal recessive conditions identified through cancer panels should occur with patients.

  11. Predation risk affects reproductive physiology and demography of elk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Christianson, David; Liley, Stewart; Winnie, John A

    2007-02-16

    Elk (Cervus elaphus) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem alter patterns of aggregation, habitat selection, vigilance, and foraging in the presence of wolves (Canis lupus). Antipredator behaviors like these can reduce predation risk but are also likely to carry costs. Data from five elk populations studied for 16 site years showed that progesterone concentrations (from 1489 fecal samples) declined with the ratio of elk to wolves. In turn, progesterone concentrations were a good predictor of calf recruitment in the subsequent year. Together, these data suggest that wolves indirectly affect the reproductive physiology and the demography of elk through the costs of antipredator behavior.

  12. Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, Patricia

    2006-01-01

    Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens

  13. Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, Patricia [Creighton Univ., Omaha (United States). College of Arts and Sciences/Philosophy

    2006-09-15

    Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens.

  14. Tubal Factor Infertility and Perinatal Risk After Assisted Reproductive Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawwass, Jennifer F.; Crawford, Sara; Kissin, Dmitry M.; Session, Donna R.; Boulet, Sheree; Jamieson, Denise J.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess trends of tubal factor infertility and to evaluate risk of miscarriage and delivery of preterm or low birth weight (LBW) neonates among women with tubal factor infertility using assisted reproductive technology (ART). METHODS We assessed trends of tubal factor infertility among all fresh and frozen, donor, and nondonor ART cycles performed annually in the United States between 2000 and 2010 (N=1,418,774) using the National ART Surveillance System. The data set was then limited to fresh, nondonor in vitro fertilization cycles resulting in pregnancy to compare perinatal outcomes for cycles associated with tubal compared with male factor infertility. We performed bivariate and multivariable analyses controlling for maternal characteristics and calculated adjusted risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS The percentage of ART cycles associated with tubal factor infertility diagnoses decreased from 2000 to 2010 (26.02–14.81%). Compared with male factor infertility, tubal factor portended an increased risk of miscarriage (14.0% compared with 12.7%, adjusted RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04–1.12); risk was increased for both early and late miscarriage. Singleton neonates born to women with tubal factor infertility had an increased risk of pre-term birth (15.8% compared with 11.6%, adjusted RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.20–1.34) and LBW (10.9% compared with 8.5%, adjusted RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.20–1.36). Significant increases in risk persisted for early and late preterm delivery and very low and moderately LBW delivery. A significantly elevated risk was also detected for twin, but not triplet, pregnancies. CONCLUSION Tubal factor infertility, which is decreasing in prevalence in the United States, is associated with an increased risk of miscarriage, preterm birth, and LBW delivery as compared with couples with male factor infertility using ART. PMID:23812461

  15. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

    OpenAIRE

    Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

    1987-01-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approa...

  16. The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

    2013-07-01

    We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

  17. Maternal reproductive history and the risk of isolated congenital malformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Materna-Kiryluk, A; Więckowska, B; Wiśniewska, K; Borszewska-Kornacka, M K; Godula-Stuglik, U; Limon, J; Rusin, J; Sawulicka-Oleszczuk, H; Szwałkiewicz-Warowicka, E; Walczak, M

    2011-03-01

    We examined the relationship between maternal reproductive history and the newborn's risk of isolated congenital malformations in a large case-control cohort from the Polish Registry of Congenital Malformations. Congenital malformations were classified into four categories: isolated congenital heart defects (n=1673), isolated cleft palate (n=255), cleft lip with or without cleft palate (n=448) and renal agenesis (n=103). The case groups were compared with a shared group of 2068 controls recruited in the same time period and geographic area. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the risk associated with maternal gravidity and of previous miscarriages after accounting for maternal age and other potential risk factors. In unadjusted analyses, maternal gravidity was significantly associated with increased risk of all four classes of congenital malformations. After adjustment, a significant association persisted for congenital heart defects [odds ratio (OR)=1.22, [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09, 1.36], P=0.0007] and cleft lip with or without cleft palate (OR=1.21, [95% CI 1.09, 1.36], P=0.0005). A similar trend existed for isolated cleft palate (OR=1.18, [95% CI 1.02, 1.37], P=0.03). There was no appreciable increase in the risk of congenital malformations associated with a maternal history of miscarriages, but a trend for a protective effect on the occurrence of cleft lip with or without cleft palate was observed (OR=0.72, [95% CI 0.52, 0.99], P=0.045). Based on our data, maternal gravidity represents a significant risk factor for congenital heart defects and cleft lip with or without cleft palate in the newborn infant. Our data do not support an increase in risk because of past history of miscarriages. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Risk of Cancer in Children Conceived by Assisted Reproductive Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reigstad, Marte Myhre; Larsen, Inger Kristin; Myklebust, Tor Åge; Robsahm, Trude Eid; Oldereid, Nan Birgitte; Brinton, Louise A; Storeng, Ritsa

    2016-03-01

    An increasing number of children are born after assisted reproductive technology (ART), and monitoring their long-term health effects is of interest. This study compares cancer risk in children conceived by ART to that in children conceived without. The Medical Birth Registry of Norway contains individual information on all children born in Norway (including information of ART conceptions). All children born between 1984 and 2011 constituted the study cohort, and cancer data were obtained from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Follow-up started at date of birth and ended on the date of the first cancer diagnosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2011. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of overall cancer risk between children conceived by ART and those not. Cancer risk was also assessed separately for all childhood cancer types. The study cohort comprised 1 628 658 children, of which 25 782 were conceived by ART. Of the total 4554 cancers, 51 occurred in ART-conceived children. Risk of overall cancer was not significantly elevated (HR 1.21; 95% CI 0.90-1.63). However, increased risk of leukemia was observed for children conceived by ART compared with those who were not (HR 1.67; 95% CI 1.02-2.73). Elevated risk of Hodgkin's lymphoma was also found for ART-conceived children (HR 3.63; 95% CI 1.12-11.72), although this was based on small numbers. This population-based cohort study found elevated risks of leukemia and Hodgkin's lymphoma in children conceived by ART. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  19. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  20. Aliza Shvarts’s Art of Aborting: Queer Conceptions and Resistance to Reproductive Futurism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Grahovac

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In April 2008, the Yale Daily News published an article introducing Yale University fine arts student Aliza Shvarts's senior undergraduate art project. In the article, Shvarts announced that as part of her project she had been privately artificially inseminating herself every month during a nine-month period, and performing self-induced miscarriages by ingesting abortifacient drugs each month. The announcement ignited a national controversy, sparking university protests and 'pro-life' outcries across internet communities. Ultimately, the Yale School of Art banned the project from being exhibited. No feminist made an immediate defence of Shvarts's work. Through an in-depth exploration of Shvarts's art project, this essay aims to critically interrogate the politics of reproduction and the rhetoric of futurity in relation to a woman's social and symbolic positioning in a culture that places heterosexual reproduction and the institution of family at the heart of future. I argue that Shvarts's project was an attempt to explore how art could be a means to empty the realm of femininity of its symbolic 'function' within a patriarchal order. By means of her radical refusal of reproduction, manifested in a series of repeated abortions, she staged a resistance to the patriarchal symbolic positioning of a woman – the positioning within which a woman's life is intelligible insofar as it follows the pre-determined reproductive narrative of 'natural' womanhood (birth, marriage, motherhood and death – so that a multitude of new narratives and possibilities could be birthed. I argue that Shvarts is the author of the possibility for imagining the future that is not mapped in advance for a woman – the future in which she is not an 'object' of reproduction but an 'author'. Drawing on Jack J. Halberstam's concept of 'shadow feminism' and Lee Edelman's 'reproductive futurism', I will also suggest that Shvarts's performance provides an invaluable reflection

  1. Metritis in dairy cows: risk factors and reproductive performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliodori, M J; Magnasco, R P; Becu-Villalobos, D; Lacau-Mengido, I M; Risco, C A; de la Sota, R L

    2013-06-01

    The objectives of this study were to assess the risk factors for metritis, its effects on milk yield and on reproductive performance, and the efficacy of ceftiofur therapy in Holstein dairy cows. Cows (n=303) from a commercial dairy herd in Argentina were studied. Cows were scored for body condition, and blood samples were collected on d -14, 7, 21, 31, 41, and 50 relative to parturition. Cows having a watery, purulent, or brown, and fetid vaginal discharge (VD) and rectal temperature ≤ 39.2°C were diagnosed as having clinical metritis, and those having a similar VD and rectal temperature >39.2°C were diagnosed as having puerperal metritis. Both clinical and puerperal metritis cows were randomly assigned to control (no treatment) or ceftiofur group (2.2mg/kg×3 consecutive days). Cure was declared if clear VD was observed at 21 d in milk (DIM). Blood samples were analyzed for nonesterified fatty acids, β-hydroxybutyrate, and blood urea nitrogen using commercial kits, and for insulin-like growth factor-1, insulin, and leptin by RIA. Data were analyzed with PROC MIXED, GENMOD, PHREG, and LIFETEST from SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). The risk for metritis increased with dystocia, retained fetal membranes, and dead calf [AOR (adjusted odds ratio)=2.58, 95% CI: 1.189-5.559], and as prepartum nonesterified fatty acids levels increased (AOR=1.001, 95% CI: 0.999-1.002). Conversely, risk decreased as prepartum insulin-like growth factor-1 increased (AOR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.349-1.219). Cows having either clinical or puerperal metritis produced less milk by 90 DIM than did healthy cows (2,236 ± 172 vs. 2,367 ± 77 vs. 2,647 ± 82 kg, respectively). Cows with puerperal metritis had lower risk for pregnancy by 100 DIM (AOR=0.189, 95% CI: 0.070-0.479) and a lower hazard rate for pregnancy by 150 DIM (hazard rate: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.621-0.911), and took longer to get pregnant (129 vs. 111 vs. 109 d, for puerperal metritis, clinical metritis, and healthy cows, respectively

  2. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO BY FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Kerimov Alexandr

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the problem of the dynamic risk management of the investment portfolio using future con- tracts. The management starts with the concept of effective inhomogeneous portfolios, which contain futures together with underlying asserts. The effective portfolios are defined as the ones of the minimal dispersion with the expected return greater or equal to the specified value. Risk is measured by the probability of losing of a certain part of the portfolio value. The control parameters are the number of futures for each asset of portfolio, which is defined from the condition of effec- tiveness of portfolio and risk acceptability on each step.The effective adaptive strategies of portfolio risk management together with comparative analysis on a concrete example are presented. The proposed approach provides the forecast correction of the expected income and its variance for the assets with the emergence of new data. The financial time series are determined by volatility clustering, i.e. relative or absolute price changes tend to keep high or low magnitude for some time, with the result that clusters are created - periods of high or low volatility. Then adaptive estimate of correlational relationships between asset prices are essential because the degree of correlational relationship also changes in time. So the correlation of future and spot price changes considerably increases while approaching to performance of contracts. For taking into account of data instability of dispersion and correlation simple methods of volatility forecasting and correlation of relative changes of price data based on exponential smoothing are implemented.

  4. The era of 3Rs implementation in developmental and reproductive toxicity (DART) testing: Current overview and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beekhuijzen, Manon

    2017-09-01

    Since adoption of the first globally implemented guidelines for developmental and reproductive toxicity (DART) testing for pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and agrochemicals, many years passed without major updates. However in recent years, significant changes in these guidelines have been made or are being implemented. These changes have been guided by the ethical drive to reduce, refine and replace (3R) animal testing, as well as the addition of endocrine disruptor relevant endpoints. Recent applied improvements have focused on reduction and refinement. Ongoing scientific and technical innovations will provide the means for replacement of animal testing in the future and will improve predictivity in humans. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of ongoing global DART endeavors in respect to the 3Rs, with an outlook towards future advances in DART testing aspiring to reduce animal testing to a minimum and the supreme ambition towards animal-free hazard and risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Broad support for regulating the clinical implementation of future reproductive techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, S; Vliegenthart, R; Repping, S; Dancet, E A F

    2018-01-01

    the disposal of human embryos. Regulation for out-of-pocket costs and the burden of treatment received little support. The majority of gynaecologists and the general public, but not the patients, requested regulation for the risk of minor congenital abnormalities, the success rates and the naturalness of treatments. Nevertheless, the majority of patients did consider the former two potential negative consequences important. The majority of all groups preferred a national bioethics committee as the regulatory body. This committee should consult with advisors from various backgrounds and should consider the broader context of potential consequences of the stem cell-based fertility treatments. This empirical study focuses on only three stakeholder groups. This study reports on the perspective of the majority and this is not per definition the morally right perspective. The transferability of our findings to other cultures and other techniques remains unclear. A national bioethics committee, consulting with advisors from various backgrounds, should regulate the clinical implementation of future stem cell-based fertility treatments. Whether this broad support for regulation applies to novel techniques from other fields of medicine should be examined. The Young Academy of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. None of the authors has any conflict of interest to declare. Not applicable. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  6. Polycystic ovary syndrome and early-onset preeclampsia: reproductive manifestations of increased cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltman-Verhulst, Susanne M; van Rijn, Bas B; Westerveld, H Egbertine; Franx, Arie; Bruinse, Hein W; Fauser, Bart C J M; Goverde, Angelique J

    2010-01-01

    Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women is a major healthcare issue. Detection of premenopausal women with increased risk of CVD could enhance prevention strategies and reduce first event-related morbidity and mortality. In this study, we argue that an unfavorable metabolic constitution in women may present itself early in life as a reproductive complication, such as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and preeclampsia. We evaluated the cardiovascular risk of women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia and women with PCOS and assessed their need for implementation of early risk factor-reduction strategies. We performed a standardized evaluation of 240 women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia and 456 women diagnosed with PCOS for established major CVD risk factors. Metabolic syndrome characteristics were analyzed per body mass index category. Mean age was 30.6 and 29.0 years for women with preeclampsia and PCOS, respectively. High percentages of metabolic syndrome were found in both groups (preeclampsia group, 14.6%; and PCOS group, 18.4%), with an incidence of greater than 50% in both groups of women if body mass index was greater than 30 kg/m. Overall, more than 90% of the women qualified for either lifestyle or medical intervention according to the American Heart Association guideline for CVD prevention in women. Women with PCOS and early-onset preeclampsia already show an unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile with high need for lifestyle or medical intervention at a young age. We therefore recommend an active role of the gynecologist in routine screening and follow-up of women with reproductive conditions linked to future cardiovascular risk.

  7. Reproductive health and the environment: Counseling patients about risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haruty, Bella; Friedman, Julie; Hopp, Stephanie; Daniels, Ryane; Pregler, Janet

    2016-05-01

    Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are associated with reproductive complications such as infertility, pregnancy complications, poor birth outcomes, and child developmental abnormalities, although not all chemicals of concern are EDCs. Pregnant patients and women of childbearing age need reasonable advice about environmental contaminants and reproductive health. Copyright © 2016 Cleveland Clinic.

  8. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  9. A qualitative study of Ottawa university students? awareness, knowledge and perceptions of infertility, infertility risk factors and assisted reproductive technologies (ART)

    OpenAIRE

    Sabarre, Kelley-Anne; Khan, Zainab; Whitten, Amanda N; Remes, Olivia; Phillips, Karen P

    2013-01-01

    Background Awareness of infertility risk factors is an essential first step to safeguard future fertility. Whereas several studies have examined university students? awareness of female fertility and related risk factors, the topic of male infertility has not been well examined. The objective of this study was to assess young men and women?s awareness, knowledge and perceptions of infertility, male and female infertility risk factors and assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Methods Semi-...

  10. Limiting Future Proliferation and Security Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.

    2011-01-01

    A major new technical tool for evaluation of proliferation and security risks has emerged over the past decade as part the activities of the Generation IV International Forum. The tool has been developed by a consensus group from participating countries and organizations and is termed the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR and PP) Evaluation Methodology. The methodology defines a set of challenges, analyzes system response to these challenges, and assesses outcomes. The challenges are the threats posed by potential actors (proliferant states or sub-national adversaries). It is of paramount importance in an evaluation to establish the objectives, capabilities, resources, and strategies of the adversary as well as the design and protection contexts. Technical and institutional characteristics are both used to evaluate the response of the system and to determine its resistance against proliferation threats and robustness against sabotage and terrorism threats. The outcomes of the system response are expressed in terms of a set of measures, which thereby define the PR and PP characteristics of the system. This paper summarizes results of applications of the methodology to nuclear energy systems including reprocessing facilities and large and small modular reactors. The use of the methodology in the design phase a facility will be discussed as it applies to future safeguards concepts.

  11. The impact of negative childbirth experience on future reproductive decisions: A quantitative systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shorey, Shefaly; Yang, Yen Yen; Ang, Emily

    2018-06-01

    The aim of this study was to systematically retrieve, critique and synthesize available evidence regarding the association between negative childbirth experiences and future reproductive decisions. A child's birth is often a joyous event; however, there is a proportion of women who undergo negative childbirth experiences that have long-term implications on their reproductive decisions. A systematic review of quantitative studies was undertaken using Joanna Briggs Institute's methods. A search was carried out in CINAHL Plus with Full Text, Embase, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science from January 1996 - July 2016. Studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were assessed by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute's Critical Appraisal Tools. Data were extracted under subheadings adapted from the institute's data extraction forms. Twelve studies, which examined either one or more influences of negative childbirth experiences, were identified. The included studies were either cohort or cross-sectional designs. Five studies observed positive associations between prior negative childbirth experiences and decisions to not have another child, three studies found positive associations between negative childbirth experiences and decisions to delay a subsequent birth and six studies concluded positive associations between negative childbirth experiences and maternal requests for caesarean section in subsequent pregnancies. To receive a holistic understanding on negative childbirth experiences, a suitable definition and validated measuring tools should be used to understand this phenomenon. Future studies or reviews should include a qualitative component and/or the exploration of specific factors such as cultural and regional differences that influence childbirth experiences. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Using financial futures in trading and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mas, Ignacio; Saa-Requejo, Jesus

    1995-01-01

    The authors explain the features of an array of futures contracts and their basic pricing relationships and describe a few applications to show how investors and risk managers can use these contracts. Futures - and derivatives generally - allow economic agents to fine-tune the structure of their assets and liabilities to suit their risk preferences and market expectations. Futures are not a financing or investment vehicle per se, but a tool for transferring price risks associated with fluctua...

  13. EFFECTS OF INTRAUTERINE NUTRITION ON FETAL PROGRAMMING OF REPRODUCTIVE ORGANS AND THE FUTURE REPRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE IN SHEEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pérez-Clariget R

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uterine undernutrition during the embryonic and fetal development has been of concern in human medicine due to the consequences on the health and welfare of the people it causes. However, in animal production it is in just the past two decades that the issue has gained interest from researchers. Animal production based on native pasture grazing systems often presets periods of under nutrition during gestation, so the topic is of particular interest to our region. The aim of this paper is to review the literature on the effects of nutrition, with special emphasis on undernutrition of the pregnant ewe on the intrauterine development of the reproductive tract of both male and female offspring, and the reproductive performance of the adult ewe and ram.

  14. Reproductive factors and risk of mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition; a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merritt, Melissa A.; Riboli, Elio; Murphy, Neil; Kadi, Mai; Tjønneland, Anne; Olsen, Anja; Overvad, Kim; Dossus, Laure; Dartois, Laureen; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Fortner, Renée T.; Katzke, Verena A.; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Palli, Domenico; Sieri, Sabina; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Peeters, Petra H.; Lund, Eiliv; Nakamura, Aurelie; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Quirós, J. Ramón; Agudo, Antonio; Molina-Montes, Esther; Larrañaga, Nerea; Dorronsoro, Miren; Cirera, Lluís; Barricarte, Aurelio; Olsson, Åsa; Butt, Salma; Idahl, Annika; Lundin, Eva; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Key, Timothy J.; Brennan, Paul; Ferrari, Pietro; Wark, Petra A.; Norat, Teresa; Cross, Amanda J.; Gunter, Marc J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Reproductive events are associated with important physiologic changes, yet little is known about how reproductive factors influence long-term health in women. Our objective was to assess the relation of reproductive characteristics with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk.

  15. Host and food searching in a parasitic wasp Venturia canescens: a trade-off between current and future reproduction?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Desouhant, E.; Driessen, G.J.J.; Amat, I.; Bernstein, C.

    2005-01-01

    Whether to invest in current or future reproduction is an important trade-off in life history evolution. For insect parasitoids, this trade-off is determined, among other factors, by the decision whether to search for hosts (immediate gain of fitness) or food (delayed fitness gains). Although host

  16. Association between duration of reproductive lifespan and Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soo Hyun; Sim, Mu Yul; Park, Sat Byul

    2015-12-01

    The benefit of estrogen therapy in postmenopausal women is still uncertain. Based upon extensive observational data, it was believed that estrogen was cardioprotective. The relationship between the period of exposure to endogenous estrogens and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been studied in Korean women. To assess associations between reproductive lifespan and CVD by using the Framingham risk score (FRS) in postmenopausal Korean women. This cross-sectional, population-based study used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) for the five years 2008-2012,after adjustment for relevant variables using complex sample analysis and data weighting. Among 25,534 women, 1973 women were enrolled, after excluding those 80 years of age (n=6194), those with diabetes, CVD or cancer (n=491), those with unrecorded physical measurements (n=7335), those with menarche age ≤8 years or ≥20 years (n=6194), and premenopausal women (n=3347). The FRS tended to show a significant negative correlation with the reproductive lifespan (preproductive lifespan and FRS (adjusted relative risk [RR] for reproductive years [shortest lifespan group] compared with 28-33 reproductive years [moderate lifespan group], 1.2, p33 reproductive years [longest lifespan group] compared with 28-33 reproductive years [moderate lifespan group], -0.42, p=0.011). A longer reproductive lifespan is associated with a lower estimated risk of CVD in the next 10 years in postmenopausal women. This result suggests that estrogen has a long-term protective effect against CVD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Vector-borne diseases: the basic reproduction number R0 and risk maps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, N.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304836699

    2009-01-01

    This thesis deals with the derivation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases, in the context of studying the effect of climate change on the risk of emergence diseases. Vector-borne diseases are transmitted from an infected individual to another individual by vectors,

  19. Signatures of reproductive events on blood counts and biomarkers of inflammation: Implications for chronic disease risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W Cramer

    Full Text Available Whether inflammation mediates how reproductive events affect chronic-disease risk is unclear. We studied inflammatory biomarkers in the context of reproductive events using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES data. From 15,986 eligible women from the 1999-2011 data cycles, we accessed information on reproductive events, blood counts, C-reactive protein (CRP, and total homocysteine (tHCY. We calculated blood-count ratios including: platelet-lymphocyte (PLR, lymphocyte-monocyte (LMR, platelet-monocyte (PMR, and neutrophil-monocyte (NMR. Using sampling weights per NHANES guidelines, means for counts, ratios, or biomarkers by reproductive events were compared using linear regression. We performed trend tests and calculated p-values with partial sum of squares F-tests. Higher PLR and lower LMR were associated with nulliparity. In postmenopausal women, lower PMR was associated with early age at first birth and higher NMR with later age at and shorter interval since last birth. Lower PNR and higher neutrophils and tHCY were associated with early natural menopause. In all women, the neutrophil count correlated positively with CRP; but, in premenopausal women, correlated inversely with tHCY. Reproductive events leave residual signatures on blood counts and inflammatory biomarkers that could underlie their links to chronic disease risk.

  20. Dependency of cardiovascular risk on reproductive stages and on age among middle-aged Chinese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y; Ruan, X; Mueck, A O

    2017-10-01

    To assess the 10-year cardiovascular risk in middle-aged Chinese women living in the same community and the impact of reproductive aging and age. This was a cross-sectional study in the Yuetan Community of Beijing. Data on lifestyle habits, prevalence and treatment of chronic diseases with significance for cardiovascular disease (CVD) development were collected by interview. CVD risk factors were assessed by physical examination and laboratory tests. The 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham 10-year risk score. STRAW +10 criteria were used for the stages of reproductive aging. A total of 536 women, aged 40-60 years, were enrolled. The incidences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, abdominal obesity, glucose intolerance and diabetes were 32.6%, 45.7%, 65.5%, 37.9% and 10.1%, respectively. After adjustment, the incidence of hypertension and diabetes increased with age and with reproductive aging. Dyslipidemia and glucose intolerance were only associated with age. Abdominal obesity was related neither to age nor to reproductive aging. The 10-year cardiovascular risk ranged from 1% to 24.8%; 11.6% of women had a moderate or high Framingham 10-year risk score. CVD risk factors were frequent and more than 10% of the women were at moderate or high risk of developing cardiovascular disease within the next 10 years. To our knowledge, this was demonstrated for the first time in middle-aged Chinese women. Thus, women should maintain a healthy lifestyle and physicians should monitor them to prevent CVD.

  1. Risk disparities in the globalisation of assisted reproductive technology: the case of Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Jung-Ok

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the disparities in risks associated with biomedical technology focusing on the results of assisted reproductive technology (ART). ART among biomedical technologies transferred to Asia is a representative case that reveals in its clinical use and related scientific research the global politics of technology. This study notes the global politics at work in the recognition of and reaction to such risks. While many Asian countries aggressively pursue technological development, weak legislative and administrative regulations have created various problems and controversial cases. This study asserts that risks associated with technology are characterised as social facts not natural ones or mere 'side effects', since technological development and risk are closely intertwined.

  2. Financial "risk-sharing" or refund programs in assisted reproduction: an Ethics Committee opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Financial "risk-sharing" fee structures in assisted reproduction programs charge patients a higher initial fee but provide reduced fees for subsequent cycles and often a partial or complete refund if treatment fails. This opinion of the ASRM Ethics Committee analyzes the ethical issues raised by these fee structures, including patient selection criteria, conflicts of interest, success rate transparency, and patient informed consent. This document replaces the document of the same name, last published in 2013 (Fertil Steril 2013;100:334-6). Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Live porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus vaccines: Current status and future direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renukaradhya, Gourapura J; Meng, Xiang-Jin; Calvert, Jay G; Roof, Michael; Lager, Kelly M

    2015-08-07

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) caused by PRRS virus (PRRSV) was reported in the late 1980s. PRRS still is a huge economic concern to the global pig industry with a current annual loss estimated at one billion US dollars in North America alone. It has been 20 years since the first modified live-attenuated PRRSV vaccine (PRRSV-MLV) became commercially available. PRRSV-MLVs provide homologous protection and help in reducing shedding of heterologous viruses, but they do not completely protect pigs against heterologous field strains. There have been many advances in understanding the biology and ecology of PRRSV; however, the complexities of virus-host interaction and PRRSV vaccinology are not yet completely understood leaving a significant gap for improving breadth of immunity against diverse PRRS isolates. This review provides insights on immunization efforts using infectious PRRSV-based vaccines since the 1990s, beginning with live PRRSV immunization, development and commercialization of PRRSV-MLV, and strategies to overcome the deficiencies of PRRSV-MLV through use of replicating viral vectors expressing multiple PRRSV membrane proteins. Finally, powerful reverse genetics systems (infectious cDNA clones) generated from more than 20 PRRSV isolates of both genotypes 1 and 2 viruses have provided a great resource for exploring many innovative strategies to improve the safety and cross-protective efficacy of live PRRSV vaccines. Examples include vaccines with diminished ability to down-regulate the immune system, positive and negative marker vaccines, multivalent vaccines incorporating antigens from other porcine pathogens, vaccines that carry their own cytokine adjuvants, and chimeric vaccine viruses with the potential for broad cross-protection against heterologous strains. To combat this devastating pig disease in the future, evaluation and commercialization of such improved live PRRSV vaccines is a shared goal among PRRSV researchers, pork

  4. The dynamics of risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mork, E.

    2006-01-01

    Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and forwards

  5. Estimating and comparing risks in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llewellyn, Gareth

    1998-01-01

    The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector

  6. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  7. A qualitative study of Ottawa university students' awareness, knowledge and perceptions of infertility, infertility risk factors and assisted reproductive technologies (ART).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Kelley-Anne; Khan, Zainab; Whitten, Amanda N; Remes, Olivia; Phillips, Karen P

    2013-08-20

    Awareness of infertility risk factors is an essential first step to safeguard future fertility. Whereas several studies have examined university students' awareness of female fertility and related risk factors, the topic of male infertility has not been well examined. The objective of this study was to assess young men and women's awareness, knowledge and perceptions of infertility, male and female infertility risk factors and assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2008 with a multi-ethnic sample of sixteen male and twenty-three female Ottawa university students, followed by qualitative data analysis to identify major themes. Interview topics included awareness of male and female infertility risk factors, infertility diagnosis/treatments and personal options in the event of future infertility. Participants were generally familiar with infertility as a biomedical health problem, could identify sex-specific risk factors but overestimated fertility of women in their thirties and ART success rates. Reproductive health knowledge gaps and confusion of the physiological life-stage of menopause with infertility were apparent. Most participants would pursue in vitro fertilization or international adoption in the event of personal infertility. Some participants wished to use a 'natural' approach and were concerned with potential side effects of ART-related medications. The general awareness of infertility in young adults is promising and supports the potential uptake for health promotion of fertility preservation. This study underscores the continued need for comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education and promotion for adolescents and young adults.

  8. Wombat reproduction (Marsupialia; Vombatidae): an update and future directions for the development of artificial breeding technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Lindsay A; Janssen, Tina; Johnston, Stephen D

    2013-06-01

    This review provides an update on what is currently known about wombat reproductive biology and reports on attempts made to manipulate and/or enhance wombat reproduction as part of the development of artificial reproductive technology (ART) in this taxon. Over the last decade, the logistical difficulties associated with monitoring a nocturnal and semi-fossorial species have largely been overcome, enabling new features of wombat physiology and behaviour to be elucidated. Despite this progress, captive propagation rates are still poor and there are areas of wombat reproductive biology that still require attention, e.g. further characterisation of the oestrous cycle and oestrus. Numerous advances in the use of ART have also been recently developed in the Vombatidae but despite this research, practical methods of manipulating wombat reproduction for the purposes of obtaining research material or for artificial breeding are not yet available. Improvement of the propagation, genetic diversity and management of wombat populations requires a thorough understanding of Vombatidae reproduction. While semen collection and cryopreservation in wombats is fairly straightforward there is currently an inability to detect, induce or synchronise oestrus/ovulation and this is an impeding progress in the development of artificial insemination in this taxon.

  9. Reproductive Health Risks Associated with Occupational Exposures to Antineoplastic Drugs in Health Care Settings: A Review of the Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Thomas H.; Lawson, Christina C.; Polovich, Martha; McDiarmid, Melissa A.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Antineoplastic drugs are known reproductive and developmental toxicants. Our objective was to review the existing literature of reproductive health risks to workers who handle antineoplastic drugs. Methods A structured literature review of 18 peer-reviewed, English language publications of occupational exposure and reproductive outcomes was performed. Results While effect sizes varied with study size and population, occupational exposure to antineoplastic drugs appears to raise the risk of both congenital malformations and miscarriage. Studies of infertility and time-to-pregnancy also suggested an increased risk for sub-fertility. Conclusions Antineoplastic drugs are highly toxic in patients receiving treatment and adverse reproductive effects have been well documented in these patients. Healthcare workers with chronic, low level occupational exposure to these drugs also appear to have an increased risk of adverse reproductive outcomes. Additional precautions to prevent exposure should be considered. PMID:25153300

  10. Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

    2011-05-13

    The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

  11. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  12. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  13. Cluster analysis of cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in women of reproductive age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeng, Chii-Ruey; Chang, Yuan-chin Ivan; Chang, Yu-chia; Wang, Chia-Woei; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Ming-I

    2014-05-01

    To study the association between endocrine disturbances and metabolic complications in women seeking gynecologic care. Retrospective study, cluster analysis. Outpatient clinic, university medical center. 573 women, including 384 at low risk and 189 at high risk of cardiometabolic disease. None. Cardiovascular and metabolic parameters and clinical and biochemical characteristics. Risk factors for metabolic disease are associated with a low age of menarche, high levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and liver enzymes, and low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin. Overweight/obese status, polycystic ovary syndrome, oligo/amenorrhea, and hyperandrogenism were found to increase the risk of cardiometabolic disease. However, hyperprolactinemia and premature ovarian failure were not associated with the risk of cardiometabolic disease. In terms of androgens, the serum total testosterone level and free androgen index but not androstenedione or dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) were associated with cardiometabolic risk. Although polycystic ovary syndrome is associated with metabolic risk, obesity was the major determinant of cardiometabolic disturbances in reproductive-aged women. Hyperprolactinemia and premature ovarian failure were not associated with the risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. NCT01826357. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Residential environmental risks for reproductive age women in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyjack, David; Soret, Samuel; Chen, Lie; Hwang, Rhonda; Nazari, Nahid; Gaede, Donn

    2005-01-01

    Published research suggests there is an association between maternal inhalation of common ambient air pollutants and adverse birth outcomes, including an increased risk for preterm delivery, intrauterine growth retardation, small head circumference, low birth weight, and increased rate of malformations. The air pollutants produced by indoor combustion of biomass fuels, used by 50% of households worldwide, have been linked to acute lower respiratory infections, the single most important cause of mortality in children under the age of 5. This report describes a hypothesis-generating study in West Wollega, Ethiopia, conducted to assess airborne particulate matter concentrations in homes that combust biomass fuels (biomass homes). Respirable suspended particulate matter was measured in biomass homes and nonbiomass homes using NIOSH method 0600. Measured airborne particulate concentrations in biomass homes were up to 130 times higher than air quality standards. These findings, in part, confirm that exposure to indoor air pollutants are a major source of concern for mother/child health. Midwives are encouraged to raise awareness, contribute to research efforts, and assist in interventions.

  15. Age at menopause, reproductive history and venous thromboembolism risk among postmenopausal women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canonico, Marianne; Plu-Bureau, Geneviève; O’Sullivan, Mary Jo; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Cochrane, Barbara; Scarabin, Pierre-Yves; Manson, JoAnn E.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To investigate VTE risk in relation to age at menopause, age at menarche, parity, bilateral oophorectomy and time since menopause, as well as any interaction with randomized HT assignment among postmenopausal women. Methods Using pooled data from the Women’s Health Initiative HT clinical trials including 27,035 postmenopausal women ages 50 to 79 years with no history of VTE, we assessed the risk of VTE in relation to age at menopause, age at menarche, parity, bilateral oophorectomy and time since menopause by Cox proportional hazard models. Linear trends, quadratic relationships and interactions of reproductive life characteristics with HT on VTE risk were systematically tested. Results During the follow-up, 426 women reported a first VTE, including 294 nonprocedure-related events. No apparent interaction of reproductive life characteristics with HT assignment on VTE risk was detected and there was any significant association of VTE with age at menarche, age at menopause, parity, oophorectomy or time since menopause. However, analyses restricted to nonprocedure-related VTE showed a U-shaped relationship between age at menopause and thrombotic risk that persisted after multivariable analysis (pmenopause, those with early menopause (agemenopause (age>55 years) had a significant increased VTE risk (HR=1.8;95%CI:1.2–2.7 and HR=1.5;95%CI:1.0–2.4, respectively). Conclusion Reproductive life characteristics have little association with VTE and do not seem to influence the effect of HT on thrombotic risk among postmenopausal women. Nevertheless, early and late onset of menopause might be newly identified risk factors for nonprocedure-related VTE. PMID:23760439

  16. Valuing future citizens' values regarding risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, Patricia [Creighton Univ., Omaha (United States). College of Arts and Sciences/Philosophy

    2006-09-15

    Valuing present citizen's values regarding the risks they face is an important aspect of risk assessment and risk acceptability. Conferences like VALDOR are held for this reason. Governments like Sweden have national referendums on various risk-prone enterprises. The results of these referendums can determine the future of these programs. In the United States, when guidelines are set for determining acceptable levels of risk, the relevant federal agencies are often required to provide a comment period regarding proposed guidelines in order to ascertain the judgments, including the weights place on certain values, of individual members of society as well as stakeholder groups. After the comment period ends, the agency decides on the acceptable level of risk, taking into account the comments from present citizens. Do we also have a duty to value the not-yet-existing values of future citizens, especially if the risks created by the activities of present citizens extend into the future to citizens not yet living? If so, are there any circumstances which entitle us to de-value those not-yet-existing values. In this paper, I ground my discussion of the question of valuing future citizens' values in one of the areas of focus of the VALDOR conference: nuclear waste management and specifically the question facing the United States' program regarding an acceptable dose standard associated with the release of radioactivity into the biosphere from an underground repository. The underlying conference theme to which this discussion may be attached is community environmental justice as it applies to future citizens. I focus on the role that uncertainty plays is providing justice between present and future citizens.

  17. Joint associations between genetic variants and reproductive factors in glioma risk among women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sophia S; Hartge, Patricia; Yeager, Meredith; Carreón, Tania; Ruder, Avima M; Linet, Martha; Inskip, Peter D; Black, Amanda; Hsing, Ann W; Alavanja, Michael; Beane-Freeman, Laura; Safaiean, Mahboobeh; Chanock, Stephen J; Rajaraman, Preetha

    2011-10-15

    In a pooled analysis of 4 US epidemiologic studies (1993-2001), the authors evaluated the role of 5 female reproductive factors in 357 women with glioma and 822 controls. The authors further evaluated the independent association between 5 implicated gene variants and glioma risk among the study population, as well as the joint associations of female reproductive factors (ages at menarche and menopause, menopausal status, use of oral contraceptives, and menopausal hormone therapy) and these gene variants on glioma risk. Risk estimates were calculated as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals that were adjusted for age, race, and study. Three of the gene variants (rs4295627, a variant of CCDC26; rs4977756, a variant of CDKN2A and CDKN2B; and rs6010620, a variant of RTEL1) were statistically significantly associated with glioma risk in the present population. Compared with women who had an early age at menarche (<12 years of age), those who reported menarche at 12-13 years of age or at 14 years of age or older had a 1.7-fold higher risk and a 1.9-fold higher risk of glioma, respectively (P for trend = 0.009). Postmenopausal women and women who reported ever having used oral contraceptives had a decreased risk of glioma. The authors did not observe joint associations between these reproductive characteristics and the implicated glioma gene variants. These results require replication, but if confirmed, they would suggest that the gene variants that have previously been implicated in the development of glioma are unlikely to act through the same hormonal mechanisms in women.

  18. BMI, diet and female reproductive factors as risks for thyroid cancer: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Peterson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence rates have been increasing worldwide but the reason behind this is unclear. Both the increasing use of diagnostic technologies allowing the detection of thyroid cancer and a true increase in thyroid cancer incidence have been proposed. This review assesses the role of body mass index (BMI, diet, and reproductive factors on the thyroid cancer trend. METHODS: Epidemiologic studies of the selected risk factors up to June 2010 were reviewed and critically assessed. RESULTS: Among the thirty-seven studies reviewed and despite variation in the risk estimates, most papers supported a small but positive association for BMI (risk estimate range: 1.1-2.3 in males and 1.0-7.4 in females.. Among specific dietary components, there was no consistent association of thyroid cancer risk with iodine intake through fortification (risk estimate range: 0.49-1.6 or fish consumption (risk estimate range 0.6-2.2, nor with diets high in cruciferous vegetables (risk estimate range 0.6-1.9. A small number of studies showed a consistent protective effect of diets high in non-cruciferous vegetable (risk estimate range: 0.71-0.92. Among reproductive factors (pregnancy, parity, number of live births, use of prescription hormones, menstrual cycle regularity, and menopausal status, none were consistently associated with higher thyroid cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: BMI had the strongest link to thyroid cancer risk among those examined. Detailed examinations of population-level risk factors can help identify and support prevention efforts to reduce the burden of thyroid cancer.

  19. Hedging LDC price risk in the futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trace, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    During its first five months the natural gas futures market has seen steady growth and increasing participation by various industry players, particularly producers, marketers, and brokers. Not much has been heard, however, about participation by the principal retailers of the gas industry, the local distribution companies (LDCs). Undoubtedly, various LDCs are now in the process of determining whether or not the gas futures market can serve any useful business purpose in their operations. In examining this question LDCs should keep in mind that the futures market should serve the same purpose for them as it does for any other business engaged in the actual buying and selling of price-volatile commodities - mitigation of price risk. This article looks at the risks of the market, gives examples of investments to hedge risks and looks at the overall performance of the market

  20. 20 years of leptin: leptin and reproduction: past milestones, present undertakings, and future endeavors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chehab, Farid F

    2014-10-01

    The association between leptin and reproduction originated with the leptin-mediated correction of sterility in ob/ob mice and initiation of reproductive function in normal female mice. The uncovering of a central leptin pathway regulating food intake prompted the dissection of neuroendocrine mechanisms involving leptin in the metabolic control of reproduction. The absence of leptin receptors on GnRH neurons incited a search for intermediary neurons situated between leptin-responsive and GnRH neurons. This review addresses the most significant findings that have furthered our understanding of recent progress in this new field. The role of leptin in puberty was impacted by the discovery of neurons that co-express kisspeptin, neurokinin B, and dynorphin and these could act as leptin intermediates. Furthermore, the identification of first-order leptin-responsive neurons in the premammilary ventral nucleus and other brain regions opens new avenues to explore their relationship to GnRH neurons. Central to these advances is the unveiling that agouti-related protein/neuropeptide Y neurons project onto GnRH and kisspeptin neurons, allowing for a crosstalk between food intake and reproduction. Finally, while puberty is a state of leptin sensitivity, mid-gestation represents a state of leptin resistance aimed at building energy stores to sustain pregnancy and lactation. The mechanisms underlying leptin resistance in pregnancy have lagged; however, the establishment of this natural state is significant. Reproduction and energy balance are tightly controlled and backed up by redundant mechanisms that are critical for the survival of our species. It will be the goal of the following decade to shed new light on these complex and essential pathways. © 2014 Society for Endocrinology.

  1. Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

  2. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

  3. Maternal risk of breeding failure remained low throughout the demographic transitions in fertility and age at first reproduction in Finland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianghua Liu

    Full Text Available Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero-even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies.

  4. Maternal Risk of Breeding Failure Remained Low throughout the Demographic Transitions in Fertility and Age at First Reproduction in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianghua; Rotkirch, Anna; Lummaa, Virpi

    2012-01-01

    Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero–even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies. PMID:22529952

  5. Finance and economic and social reproduction: prospects for financialised futures in Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, João; Santos, Ana C.; Teles, Nuno

    2016-01-01

    Portugal is a semi-peripheral country within the EU that has partially followed similar processes as those of most financialised core countries, and that has been particularly hard-hit by the GFC. This paper reflects on the factors that have shaped economic and social reproduction in Portugal, drawing on previous research examining the involvement of households with finance and the systems of provision for housing, pensions and water conducted for WP5 and WP8 of FESSUD. Based on the Portugues...

  6. Hedging with stock index futures: downside risk versus the variance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, F.; Nat, van der M.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we investigate hedging a stock portfolio with stock index futures.Instead of defining the hedge ratio as the minimum variance hedge ratio, we considerseveral measures of downside risk: the semivariance according to Markowitz [ 19591 andthe various lower partial moments according to

  7. Is being a health-care worker a risk factor for women′s reproductive system?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyedeh Negar Assadi

    2013-01-01

    Conclusions: Clinical personnel are at higher risk for menses disorders compared with administrative personnel. Assessing the health of these personnel may help to improve future generation′s health.

  8. Assessment of genetic risk of exposure resulted from X-ray examination of women of the reproductive age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strel'nikova, N.K.

    1989-01-01

    On the basis of the available data an evaluation of genetic radiation risk during roentgenologic examination of women of the reproductive age is presented. It is demonstrated that the degree of genetic risk depends on woman's age at the moment of the roentgenologic examination and the amount of the gonadal dose. Identification of the high-risk exposed populations has been substantiated

  9. Reproductive history and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in postmenopausal women: findings from the Women's Health Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBlanc, Erin S; Kapphahn, Kristopher; Hedlin, Haley; Desai, Manisha; Parikh, Nisha I; Liu, Simin; Parker, Donna R; Anderson, Matthew; Aroda, Vanita; Sullivan, Shannon; Woods, Nancy F; Waring, Molly E; Lewis, Cora E; Stefanick, Marcia

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the study was to understand the association between women's reproductive history and their risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that characteristics signifying lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure would be associated with increased risk. Prospective cohort analysis of 124,379 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). We determined age of menarche and final menstrual period, and history of irregular menses from questionnaires at baseline, and calculated reproductive length from age of menarche and final menstrual period. Presence of new onset type 2 diabetes was from self-report. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed associations between reproductive variables and incidence of type 2 diabetes. In age-adjusted models, women with the shortest (<30 y) reproductive periods had a 37% (95% CI, 30-45) greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes than women with medium-length reproductive periods (36-40 y). Women with the longest (45+ y) reproductive periods had a 23% (95% CI, 12-37) higher risk than women with medium-length periods. These associations were attenuated after full adjustment (HR 1.07 [1.01, 1.14] for shortest and HR 1.09 [0.99, 1.22] for longest, compared with medium duration). Those with a final menstrual period before age 45 and after age 55 had an increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99-1.09 and HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14, respectively) compared to those with age of final menstrual period between 46 and 55 years. Timing of menarche and cycle regularity was not associated with risk after full adjustment. Reproductive history may be associated with type 2 diabetes risk. Women with shorter and longer reproductive periods may benefit from lifestyle counseling to prevent type 2 diabetes.

  10. Assisted reproductive techniques and risk of exstrophy-epispadias complex: a German case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwink, Nadine; Jenetzky, Ekkehart; Hirsch, Karin; Reifferscheid, Peter; Schmiedeke, Eberhard; Schmidt, Dominik; Reckin, Sabrina; Obermayr, Florian; Boemers, Thomas M; Stein, Raimund; Reutter, Heiko; Rösch, Wolfgang H; Brenner, Hermann; Ebert, Anne-Karoline

    2013-04-01

    We assessed the risk of exstrophy-epispadias complex in children conceived by in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection. Data from the German Network for Congenital Uro-REctal malformations were compared to nationwide data from the German In Vitro Fertilization Register and the German Federal Statistical Office. Odds ratios (95% CI) were determined to quantify associations using logistic regression. A total of 123 patients with exstrophy-epispadias complex born in Germany between 1997 and 2011 were recruited through participating departments of pediatric urology and pediatric surgery throughout the country as well as the German self-help organizations Blasenekstrophie/Epispadie e.V. and Kloakenekstrophie. All German live births (10,069,986) between 1997 and 2010 comprised the controls. Overall, 12 subjects (10%) and 129,982 controls (1%) were conceived by in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection. Conception by assisted reproductive technique was associated with a more than eightfold increased risk of exstrophy-epispadias complex compared to spontaneous conception (OR 8.3, 95% CI 4.6-15.0, p risk of exstrophy-epispadias complex in children conceived by in vitro fertilization (OR 14.0, 95% CI 6.5-30.0, p study provides evidence that assisted reproductive techniques such as in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection are associated with a markedly increased risk of having a child born with exstrophy-epispadias complex. However, it remains unclear whether this finding may be due to assisted reproduction per se and/or underlying infertility/subfertility etiology or parent characteristics. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Dams, Hydrology and Risk in Future River Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegner, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Across America there are over 80,000 large to medium dams and globally the number is in excess of 800,000. Currently there are over 1,400 dams and diversion structures being planned or under construction globally. In addition to these documented dams there are thousands of small dams populating watersheds. Governments, agencies, native tribes, private owners and regulators all have a common interest in safe dams. Often dam safety is characterized as reducing structural risk while providing for maximum operational flexibility. In the 1970's there were a number of large and small dam failures in the United States. These failures prompted the federal government to issue voluntary dam safety guidelines. These guidelines were based on historic information incorporated into a risk assessment process to analyze, evaluate and manage risk with the goal to improve the quality of and support of dam management and safety decisions. We conclude that historic and new risks need to be integrated into dam management to insure adequate safety and operational flexibility. A recent assessment of the future role of dams in the United States premises that future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life have not been factored into the long-term operations or relicensing of dams. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure, multiple dams within watersheds and uncertainty in demands policy revisions and an updated strategic approach to dam safety. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water planning and management. Leaders in Congress and in the states need to implement a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. A research and national policy agenda is proposed to assess future impacts and the design, operation, and management of watersheds and dams.

  12. Benefits and risks of ovarian function and reproduction for cancer development and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Adolf E

    2011-12-01

    Ovarian function and menstrual cycle disturbances, pregnancy, and reproductive medicine procedures can either increase gynecological cancer risk or prevent cancer development. For ovarian cancer development, there are two hypotheses, which are connected with ovulation and gonadotropin secretion. Most of the ovarian cancers seem to be derived from displaced ovarian surfice epithelial cells. One year of ovulatory cycles increases the ovarian cancer risk by 6%. Ovulation between 22 and 29 years of age causes the highest risk increase per year. In contrast, progesterone or progestins appear to create protection. Lifestyle can affect or modify ovarian cancer risk. Breast cancer risk is very much related to age of menarche and menopause, pregnancy, and breast feeding. All of which are related to ovarian function and progestogenic impact that translates either into breast cancer risk increase or decrease. This is modified by body mass index, physical activity, and lifestyle in general. The risk of endometrial cancer is most closely related to endogenous progesterone during the menstrual cycle and pregnancy or by exogenous progestogens as in oral contraceptives. These effects are progestogen dose and time dependent. Endometrial cancer risk can also be increased by estrogen-producing tumors or long-term estrogen treatment.

  13. Work-related reproductive, musculoskeletal and mental disorders among working women--history, current issues and future research directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishi, Reiko; Kitahara, Teruyo; Masuchi, Ayumi; Kasai, Setsuko

    2002-04-01

    According to the recent changes of working environments and socio-economical conditions, the proportion of working women are increasing in Japan. Characteristics of occupational workload and stress of Japanese working women are consistent with those in many industrialized countries except man-dominant culture. In this review we describe the history, current issues, and future research directions on occupational health of working women, especially focused on reproductive health, work-related musculo-skeletal disorders (WMSDs), and mental disorders. In the reproductive health survey, traditionally main concern was about pregnancy outcomes, then fecundity studies, such as time to pregnancy, became topics recently. Future research will be shifted to outcomes not only during pregnancy but also disorders of hormonal balance and climacterium or health conditions after menopause. WMSDs are reviewed on mainly gender difference and its causative factors. Historically, mental health of working women in Japan has focused on the job stress of nurses. We compare results with a lot of recent researches in Europe and U.S.A., where interaction between occupational stress and family roles were studied. It is not easy to predict the prospective status of female workers in Japan, but social, workplace and familial supports will enhance their health promotion.

  14. Conformists or Rebels? Relative Risk Aversion, Educational Decisions, and Social Class Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests the theory of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA), which argues that educational decisions are intended to minimize the risk of downward social class mobility. We propose a structural model which distinguishes the instantaneous utility of educational decisions from the future utility...

  15. A family planning clinic partner violence intervention to reduce risk associated with reproductive coercion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Elizabeth; Decker, Michele R.; McCauley, Heather L.; Tancredi, Daniel J.; Levenson, Rebecca R.; Waldman, Jeffrey; Schoenwald, Phyllis; Silverman, Jay G.

    2010-01-01

    Background This study examined the efficacy of a family planning clinic-based intervention to address intimate partner violence (IPV) and reproductive coercion. Study Design Four free-standing urban family planning clinics in Northern California were randomized to intervention (trained family planning counselors) or standard-of-care. English-and Spanish-speaking females ages 16-29 years (N=906) completed audio computer-assisted surveys prior to a clinic visit and 12 to 24 weeks later (75% retention rate). Analyses included assessment of intervention effects on recent IPV, awareness of IPV services, and reproductive coercion. Results Among women reporting past 3-month IPV at baseline, there was a 71% reduction in the odds of pregnancy coercion among participants in intervention clinics compared to participants from the control clinics that provided standard of care. Women in the intervention arm were more likely to report ending a relationship because the relationship was unhealthy or unsafe regardless of IPV status (AOR 1.63, 95% CI 1.01 – 2.63). Conclusions Results of this pilot study suggest that this intervention may reduce risk for reproductive coercion from abusive male partners among family planning clients and support such women to leave unsafe relationships. PMID:21310291

  16. Reproductive health of men of industrial territories: risk factors, pre-nosologic diagnostics, prophylaxis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdyuk A.M.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Deterioration of the environment in the XX-XXI century under the influence of chemical, physical, radiological and other factors is not only and not just an ecological catastrophe of modern times, but a direct threat to the health and life of human society as a whole. Among the most important factors influencing people's health occupy chemical the leading place, because since 1957 more than 50 million chemical substances were synthesized, but only 15% of them have a toxicological evaluation, and 30% of the diseases in Europe are associated with chemical factor (ECHA-EXA. Chemical "pressing" determines a significant reduction in the reproduction of the population of Europe, and for Ukraine it means a large-scale depopulation, among possible reasons of which a significant role belongs to the deterioration of the reproductive capacity of population, men in particular, and this work is devoted to this problem. On the basis of profound analysis of literature data, complex ecologic-hygienic researches we identified markers of exposure, prognosticaly significant markers of impact for the early diagnostics of disorders of male generative system in conditions of low-dose impact of xenobiotics. We achieved convincing evidence of ecologically determined character of unogenital diseases and fertility decrease, we developed scientifically-justified principles of management of risk of development of ecologically-determined reproductive pathology in men.

  17. Reproductive factors and risk of hormone receptor positive and negative breast cancer: a cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritte, Rebecca; Grote, Verena; Boeing, Heiner; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Palli, Domenico; Berrino, Franco; Mattiello, Amalia; Tumino, Rosario; Tikk, Kaja; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Quirós, José Ramón; Buckland, Genevieve; Molina-Montes, Esther; Chirlaque, María-Dolores; Ardanaz, Eva; Amiano, Pilar; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Gils, Carla H van; Peeters, Petra HM; Lukanova, Annekatrin; Wareham, Nick; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J; Travis, Ruth C; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eliv; Sund, Malin; Andersson, Anne; Romieu, Isabelle; Tjønneland, Anne; Rinaldi, Sabina; Vineis, Paulo; Merritt, Melissa A; Riboli, Elio; Kaaks, Rudolf; Olsen, Anja; Overvad, Kim; Dossus, Laure; Fournier, Agnès; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise

    2013-01-01

    The association of reproductive factors with hormone receptor (HR)-negative breast tumors remains uncertain. Within the EPIC cohort, Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the relationships of reproductive factors (menarcheal age, time between menarche and first pregnancy, parity, number of children, age at first and last pregnancies, time since last full-term childbirth, breastfeeding, age at menopause, ever having an abortion and use of oral contraceptives [OC]) with risk of ER-PR- (n = 998) and ER+PR+ (n = 3,567) breast tumors. A later first full-term childbirth was associated with increased risk of ER+PR+ tumors but not with risk of ER-PR- tumors (≥35 vs. ≤19 years HR: 1.47 [95% CI 1.15-1.88] p trend < 0.001 for ER+PR+ tumors; ≥35 vs. ≤19 years HR: 0.93 [95% CI 0.53-1.65] p trend = 0.96 for ER-PR- tumors; P het = 0.03). The risk associations of menarcheal age, and time period between menarche and first full-term childbirth with ER-PR-tumors were in the similar direction with risk of ER+PR+ tumors (p het = 0.50), although weaker in magnitude and statistically only borderline significant. Other parity related factors such as ever a full-term birth, number of births, age- and time since last birth were associated only with ER+PR+ malignancies, however no statistical heterogeneity between breast cancer subtypes was observed. Breastfeeding and OC use were generally not associated with breast cancer subtype risk. Our study provides possible evidence that age at menarche, and time between menarche and first full-term childbirth may be associated with the etiology of both HR-negative and HR-positive malignancies, although the associations with HR-negative breast cancer were only borderline significant

  18. Risk factors that affect reproductive target achievement in fertile dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aungier, S P M; Roche, J F; Diskin, M G; Crowe, M A

    2014-01-01

    The aims of the present study were to investigate (1) the risk factors that influence the achievement of reproductive targets postpartum (pp) and (2) the key factors that influence pregnancy rate following first artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows. Ninety-eight Holstein-Friesian pp cows were blood sampled from wk 1 to 4 pp for hematology and biochemistry. Reproductive tract health was assessed weekly by ultrasonography and vaginal mucus scoring. Body condition score (BCS), lameness score, and milk yield were assessed every 2 wk. Milk samples for progesterone assay were collected twice weekly and on d 4, 5, and 7 after AI. Risk factors associated with achieving reproductive targets depended on (1) increased metabolic activity of the liver (increased glutamate dehydrogenase at calving and increased γ-glutamyl transpeptidase in wk 4), (2) a competent immune system (increased neutrophils in wk 1; decreased α1-acid glycoprotein in wk 1, 2, and 3), (3) an endocrine system that was capable of responding by producing sufficient triiodothyronine in wk 2 and increased insulin-like growth factor I in wk 3 and 4, (4) a lower negative energy balance status (decreased nonesterified fatty acid concentration in wk 1; decreased β-hydroxybutyrate concentration in wk 2; BCS loss between calving and d 28 pp mucus discharge at first ovulation and at d 45 pp; resumed ovarian cyclicity by the end of the voluntary waiting period (≥ d 35 pp)], and (6) adequate diet (to ensure increased glutathione peroxidase in wk 2 and 3 and increased magnesium in wk 4). Risk factors that increased the odds of a successful first AI were previous ovulation(s) (odds ratio=3.17 per ovulation), BCS >2.5 at AI (odds ratio=3.01), and clear vaginal mucus (score=0) compared with purulent mucus (score >0) 4 d after first AI (odds ratio=2.99). In conclusion, this study identified key risk factors in the early pp period that give a higher probability of cows achieving their reproductive targets and of

  19. Contraceptive behavior as risk factor for reproductive health of junior students attending a medical university

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.N. Govyazina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available 1–3 year students attending medical and preventive faculty of a medical university were our research object. Our research had many stages, and at the first one our goal was to examine and to assess basic behavioral risks for reproductive health of students attending medical and preventive faculty of a medical university. We conducted a sociological examination via questioning. 428 students were questioned as per materials collecting program which included 74 parameters; they accounted for 91.6 % out of the overall official number of students, 45.0 % male students and 40.0 % female students combined work and studies. We detected that, as per questioning results, the specific weight of students who took care of their health amounted to 79.2 % boys and 95.2 % girls. However, the students tended to have bad habits, i.e. constant alcohol intake or smoking. And although information on diseases prevention and on how to pursue healthy lifestyle was perfectly available to them, students didn't try to use it and preserve their health. All the respondents said they were against abortion. Girls were likely to adopt a complex approach when choosing a contraceptive, they resorted to hormonal agents, and, with their partners' consent, to condoms. But they often took hormonal agents without any consultations with a gynecologist or an endocrinologist. Contraceptives were rather rarely applied, and students appeared to have no knowledge on risk factors causing reproductive health deterioration. They also tended to be negligent and too self-confident when it came to reproductive health protection. A risk of abortions was very high for girls who didn't use contraceptives, and also all students ran rather high risk of catching sexual diseases. Sexual education is needed to correct contraceptive behavior; medical workers are a main source of information on reproductive health of young people in 7–10 % cases only. We need to create interactive educational programs

  20. Affect, risk perception and future optimism after the tsunami disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Vastfjall

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental events such as natural disasters may influence the public's affective reactions and decisions. Shortly after the 2004 Tsunami disaster we assessed how affect elicited by thinking about this disaster influenced risk perceptions and future time perspective in Swedish undergraduates not directly affected by the disaster. An experimental manipulation was used to increase the salience of affect associated with the disaster. In Study 1 we found that participants reminded about the tsunami had a sense that their life was more finite and included fewer opportunities than participants in the control condition (not reminded about the tsunami. In Study 2 we found similar effects for risk perceptions. In addition, we showed that manipulations of ease-of-thought influenced the extent to which affect influenced these risk perceptions, with greater ease of thoughts being associated with greater perceived risks.

  1. Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

  2. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana D Davidson

    Full Text Available Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial

  3. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the

  4. Hypertension in Pregnancy and Future Cardiovascular Event Risk in Siblings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissgerber, Tracey L; Turner, Stephen T; Mosley, Thomas H; Kardia, Sharon L R; Hanis, Craig L; Milic, Natasa M; Garovic, Vesna D

    2016-03-01

    Hypertension in pregnancy is a risk factor for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease. This may reflect an underlying familial predisposition or persistent damage caused by the hypertensive pregnancy. We sought to isolate the effect of hypertension in pregnancy by comparing the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in women who had hypertension in pregnancy and their sisters who did not using the dataset from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy study, which examined the genetics of hypertension in white, black, and Hispanic siblings. This analysis included all sibships with at least one parous woman and at least one other sibling. After gathering demographic and pregnancy data, BP and serum analytes were measured. Disease-free survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with their sisters who did not have hypertension in pregnancy, women who had hypertension in pregnancy were more likely to develop new onset hypertension later in life, after adjusting for body mass index and diabetes (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.27-2.42). A sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy was also associated with an increased risk of hypertension in brothers and unaffected sisters, whereas an increased risk of cardiovascular events was observed in brothers only. These results suggest familial factors contribute to the increased risk of future hypertension in women who had hypertension in pregnancy. Further studies are needed to clarify the potential role of nonfamilial factors. Furthermore, a sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy may be a novel familial risk factor for future hypertension. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  5. Hypertension in Pregnancy and Future Cardiovascular Event Risk in Siblings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Stephen T.; Mosley, Thomas H.; Kardia, Sharon L.R.; Hanis, Craig L.; Milic, Natasa M.; Garovic, Vesna D.

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension in pregnancy is a risk factor for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease. This may reflect an underlying familial predisposition or persistent damage caused by the hypertensive pregnancy. We sought to isolate the effect of hypertension in pregnancy by comparing the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in women who had hypertension in pregnancy and their sisters who did not using the dataset from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy study, which examined the genetics of hypertension in white, black, and Hispanic siblings. This analysis included all sibships with at least one parous woman and at least one other sibling. After gathering demographic and pregnancy data, BP and serum analytes were measured. Disease-free survival was examined using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with their sisters who did not have hypertension in pregnancy, women who had hypertension in pregnancy were more likely to develop new onset hypertension later in life, after adjusting for body mass index and diabetes (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.27–2.42). A sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy was also associated with an increased risk of hypertension in brothers and unaffected sisters, whereas an increased risk of cardiovascular events was observed in brothers only. These results suggest familial factors contribute to the increased risk of future hypertension in women who had hypertension in pregnancy. Further studies are needed to clarify the potential role of nonfamilial factors. Furthermore, a sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy may be a novel familial risk factor for future hypertension. PMID:26315531

  6. Predation risk affects growth and reproduction of an invasive snail and its lethal effect depends on prey size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jing; Martín, Pablo R.; Zhang, Chunxia

    2017-01-01

    The behavior of invasive species under predation risk has been studied extensively, but their growth and reproductive responses have rarely been investigated. We conducted experiments with juveniles and adults of the invasive freshwater snail Pomacea canaliculata, and we observed changes in growth and reproduction in response to predation risk from a caged predator (Trachemys scripta elegans). P. canaliculata produced eggs earlier in the presence of predators and injured conspecifics compared with the control group (no risk), although the total number of egg masses laid by per female was exceeded by that of the controls after 15 days. Egg hatching success noticeably decreased under predation risk, and the incubation period was significantly prolonged; however, the oviposition height of the snails was not affected. A lethal effect of predation risk was detected in juvenile snails but not in adults. The growth of juvenile P. canaliculata was inhibited under predation risk, probably due to a reduction in food intake. Adult females exhibited a greater reduction in growth under predation risk than males, which likely resulted in part from the high reproductive investment of females in egg laying. These results indicate that P. canaliculata snails under predation risk face a trade-off between predator avoidance and growth and reproduction, where the lethal effect of predation risk is linked to the size of the prey. PMID:29136660

  7. Predation risk affects growth and reproduction of an invasive snail and its lethal effect depends on prey size.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Guo

    Full Text Available The behavior of invasive species under predation risk has been studied extensively, but their growth and reproductive responses have rarely been investigated. We conducted experiments with juveniles and adults of the invasive freshwater snail Pomacea canaliculata, and we observed changes in growth and reproduction in response to predation risk from a caged predator (Trachemys scripta elegans. P. canaliculata produced eggs earlier in the presence of predators and injured conspecifics compared with the control group (no risk, although the total number of egg masses laid by per female was exceeded by that of the controls after 15 days. Egg hatching success noticeably decreased under predation risk, and the incubation period was significantly prolonged; however, the oviposition height of the snails was not affected. A lethal effect of predation risk was detected in juvenile snails but not in adults. The growth of juvenile P. canaliculata was inhibited under predation risk, probably due to a reduction in food intake. Adult females exhibited a greater reduction in growth under predation risk than males, which likely resulted in part from the high reproductive investment of females in egg laying. These results indicate that P. canaliculata snails under predation risk face a trade-off between predator avoidance and growth and reproduction, where the lethal effect of predation risk is linked to the size of the prey.

  8. Kant's 'formula of humanity' and assisted reproductive technology: a case for duties to future children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrone, Tatiana

    2017-11-01

    The paper asks the question whether Kant's ethical theory can be applied to issues in assisted reproductive technology (ART). It argues against three objections to applying Kant's ethics to ART: (i) the non-identity objection, (ii) the gen-ethics objection, and (iii) the care-ethics objection. After showing that neither of the three objections is sufficiently persuasive the paper proposes a reading of Kant's 'formula of humanity,' and especially its negative clause (i.e., the 'merely as means' clause), that can be of some guidance in ART. The paper conclude that although Kant's 'formula of humanity' cannot be used as a simple litmus test for determining whether an ART practice is morally permissible or not, it nonetheless can supply us with some guidance in our moral deliberation.

  9. Multivariate Analysis of Reproductive Risk Factors for Ovarian Cancer in Alexandria, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Khwsky, F.S.; Maghraby, H.K.; Rostom, Y.A.; Abdel-Rahman, A.H.

    2006-01-01

    Background: Ovarian cancer is the eighth leading cancer in women, as it accounts for 4% of all malignant tumors in females. The incidence of ovarian cancer is up to 10 times higher in western countries than in rural Asian and Africa ones. Different reproductive characteristics, life styles and specific medical conditions are responsible for different pattern and incidence of ovarian cancer worldwide. Material and Methods: A case control study was conducted during the time period from 2000 to 2003 including 172 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer, recently diagnosed and confirmed by histopathology. The patients were accessed at the hospitals currently covered by Alexandria Cancer Registry. In addition, 441 control subjects, comparable by age and address, were randomly selected from patients admitted to the same hospitals for non gynecological, non endocrinal acute diseases. Both cases and controls were subjected to a specific predesigned questionnaire to cover menstrual, reproductive and lifestyle indicators. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted and 5% level of significance was adopted. Results: Significantly increased risks were reported with increased number of abortions and increased number of ovarian cycles (OR=1.8, 95% CI (1.7-2.8), and 2.8, 95% CI 2.8 (1.5-5.2), respectively. Similarly, high risks were also reported for increased number of pregnancies, OR= 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.4) for I to three pregnancies and 4.2,95% CI 1.2-15.9) for more than four pregnancies On the other hand, decreased risks were reported for those with increased parity compared to nulliparous. Conclusion: Although ovarian cancer is less frequent in our community, yet the significant positive and negative associations between risk factors and ovarian cancer were similar to the results of other studies, apart from the primary prevention program that should be outlined according to prevalence of significant risk factors in the studied local community

  10. A qualitative study of Ottawa university students’ awareness, knowledge and perceptions of infertility, infertility risk factors and assisted reproductive technologies (ART)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Awareness of infertility risk factors is an essential first step to safeguard future fertility. Whereas several studies have examined university students’ awareness of female fertility and related risk factors, the topic of male infertility has not been well examined. The objective of this study was to assess young men and women’s awareness, knowledge and perceptions of infertility, male and female infertility risk factors and assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2008 with a multi-ethnic sample of sixteen male and twenty-three female Ottawa university students, followed by qualitative data analysis to identify major themes. Interview topics included awareness of male and female infertility risk factors, infertility diagnosis/treatments and personal options in the event of future infertility. Results Participants were generally familiar with infertility as a biomedical health problem, could identify sex-specific risk factors but overestimated fertility of women in their thirties and ART success rates. Reproductive health knowledge gaps and confusion of the physiological life-stage of menopause with infertility were apparent. Most participants would pursue in vitro fertilization or international adoption in the event of personal infertility. Some participants wished to use a ‘natural’ approach and were concerned with potential side effects of ART-related medications. Conclusions The general awareness of infertility in young adults is promising and supports the potential uptake for health promotion of fertility preservation. This study underscores the continued need for comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education and promotion for adolescents and young adults. PMID:23962162

  11. Risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Zhen Qin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies on the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology (ART are relatively controversial and insufficient. Thus, to obtain a more precise evaluation of the risk of embryonic chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART, we performed a meta-analysis of all available case-control studies relating to the cytogenetic analysis of chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART. METHODS: Literature search in the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL based on the established strategy. Meta-regression, subgroup analysis, and Galbraith plots were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies with 1,896 cases and 1,186 controls relevant to the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in first- trimester miscarriage after ART, and 8 studies with 601 cases and 602 controls evaluating frequency of chromosome anomaly for maternal age≥35 versus <35 were eligible for the meta-analysis. No statistical difference was found in risk of chromosomally abnormal miscarriage compared to natural conception and the different types of ART utilized, whereas the risk of fetal aneuploidy significantly increased with maternal age≥35 (OR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.74-4.77. CONCLUSIONS: ART treatment does not present an increased risk for chromosomal abnormalities occurring in a first trimester miscarriage, but incidence of fetal aneuploidy could increase significantly with advancing maternal age.

  12. The contribution of reproductive factors and family history towards premenopausal breast cancer risk in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razif, S Mohd; Sulaiman, S; Hanie, S Soraya; Aina, E Nor; Rohaizak, M; Fuad, I; Nurismah, M I; Sharifah, N A

    2011-08-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. This study aimed to determine the reproductive for premenopausal breast cancer risk in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A case-control study was conducted in 216 histopathologically confirmed cases of premenopausal breast cancer and 216 community-based controls that were matched by age within a 5-year period and ethnicity. The results of this study showed that premenopausal breast cancer risks were strongly related to parity, number of live births and family history of breast cancer. Premenopausal women with these known reproductive and family history risk factors should take extra measures to undergo appropriate screening method for early detection of breast cancer.

  13. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. te Linde

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

  14. Clinical endometritis in an Argentinean herd of dairy cows: risk factors and reproductive efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliodori, M J; Magnasco, R P; Becu-Villalobos, D; Lacau-Mengido, I M; Risco, C A; de la Sota, R L

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to assess the clinical and metabolic risk factors for clinical endometritis, the likelihood for having a normal vaginal discharge during postpartum, and the effects of endometritis on milk yield, reproductive efficiency, and metabolic status in Holstein cows. The study was conducted in a commercial dairy herd (Cordoba, Argentina) where 303 Holstein cows were enrolled. Cows were body condition scored (1 to 5) and tail bled on -14, 7, 21, 31, 41, and 50 d relative to parturition. Cows having a vaginal discharge with presence of pus between 21 and 41 d postpartum (dpp) were diagnosed as having clinical endometritis. Plasma blood samples were analyzed for nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), and blood urea nitrogen using commercial kits and insulin-like growth factor 1, insulin, and leptin by RIA. Data were analyzed with PROC MIXED, PROC GENMOD, and PROC PHREG of SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). Abnormal calving and puerperal metritis increased the risk for endometritis [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.21 for both]. High prepartum NEFA and high postpartum BHBA increased the risk for endometritis (AOR=1.003 and 1.001, respectively), whereas high prepartum blood urea nitrogen reduced it (AOR=0.853). Cut-offs of 456.6 μM NEFA and 402.5 μM BHBA had sensitivities of 0.69 and 0.58, and specificities of 0.88 and 0.86, respectively. The likelihood for having normal vaginal discharge increased with time (∼1% × dpp) and with normal calving. Cows with endometritis had higher milk yield than normal herdmates (27.8±0.9 vs. 25.7±0.4 kg/d), lower risk for pregnancy by 100 dpp (AOR=0.10), higher nonpregnancy risk by 200 dpp (AOR=2.87), and higher risk for culling than normal cows (AOR=2.28). Cows with endometritis had a lower hazard rate (0.44) for pregnancy and had approximately 70 d longer calving-to-conception intervals. Finally, endometritis had no effect on metabolic hormones. In conclusion, the risk for clinical

  15. Folate status in women of reproductive age as basis of neural tube defect risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Lynn B; Hausman, Dorothy B

    2018-02-01

    Reliable folate status data for women of reproductive age (WRA) to assess global risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) are needed. We focus on a recent recommendation by the World Health Organization that a specific "optimal" red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration be used as the sole indicator of NTD risk within a population and discuss how to best apply this guidance to reach the goal of assessing NTD risk globally. We also emphasize the importance of using the microbiologic assay (MBA) as the most reliable assay for obtaining comparable results for RBC folate concentration across time and countries, the need for harmonization of the MBA through use of consistent key reagents and procedures within laboratories, and the requirement to apply assay-matched cutoffs for folate deficiency and insufficiency. To estimate NTD risk globally, the ideal scenario would be to have country-specific population-based surveys of RBC folate in WRA determined utilizing a harmonized MBA, as was done in recent studies in Guatemala and Belize. We conclude with guidance on next steps to best navigate the road map toward the goal of generating reliable folate status data on which to assess NTD risk in WRA in low- and middle-income countries. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.

  16. Reproductive cloning, genetic engineering and the autonomy of the child: the moral agent and the open future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mameli, M

    2007-02-01

    Some authors have argued that the human use of reproductive cloning and genetic engineering should be prohibited because these biotechnologies would undermine the autonomy of the resulting child. In this paper, two versions of this view are discussed. According to the first version, the autonomy of cloned and genetically engineered people would be undermined because knowledge of the method by which these people have been conceived would make them unable to assume full responsibility for their actions. According to the second version, these biotechnologies would undermine autonomy by violating these people's right to an open future. There is no evidence to show that people conceived through cloning and genetic engineering would inevitably or even in general be unable to assume responsibility for their actions; there is also no evidence for the claim that cloning and genetic engineering would inevitably or even in general rob the child of the possibility to choose from a sufficiently large array of life plans.

  17. Bioengineering the Uterus: An Overview of Recent Advances and Future Perspectives in Reproductive Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Hannes; Cervelló, Irene; Simón, Carlos

    2017-07-01

    Since the initial in vitro attempts to more complex models, research on uterine regeneration is moving towards the creation of a functional bioengineered uterus with possible clinical applications. We describe here the most relevant advances in bioengineering of the uterus published in the last decades considering the use of stem cells and biomaterials as well as future developing techniques in Regenerative Medicine.

  18. Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then

  19. Media reporting of risk information: Uncertainties and the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltu, M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper argues that very little is known with a reasonable degree of certainty about how the media influence their audiences. Media effects are mediated through diverse, subtle social interactions and processes. Future changes in the regulatory and technological media environment will create even more uncertainty by changing basic parameters of media/audience interaction. More research is needed to help shed light on these uncertainties and future changes. If this research is to be of relevance to real communicators of real risk, it must fully address the issues of how the media are influenced, not just media impacts. In this context, the role of experts, PR, advertising, and media professionals' motivations are key priorities. (orig.)

  20. Chronic disease risk factors among American Indian/Alaska Native women of reproductive age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amparo, Pamela; Farr, Sherry L; Dietz, Patricia M

    2011-11-01

    The magnitude of chronic conditions and risk factors among American Indian/Alaska Native women of reproductive age is unknown. The objective of our study was to estimate this magnitude. We analyzed data for 2,821 American Indian/Alaska Native women and 105,664 non-Hispanic white women aged 18 to 44 years from the 2005 and 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We examined prevalence of high cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes, body mass index (kg/m(2)) ≥25.0, physical inactivity, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and frequent mental distress, and the cumulative number of these chronic conditions and risk factors (≥3, 2, 1, or 0). In a multivariable, multinomial logistic regression model, we examined whether American Indian/Alaska Native race was associated with the cumulative number of chronic conditions and risk factors. American Indian/Alaska Native women, compared with white women, had significantly higher rates of high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, smoking, and frequent mental distress. Of American Indian/Alaska Native women, 41% had 3 or more chronic conditions or risk factors compared with 27% of white women (χ(2), P Indian/Alaska Native race was not associated with having either 1, 2, or 3 or more chronic conditions or risk factors. Three out of every 5 American Indian/Alaska Native women aged 18 to 44 years have 3 or more chronic conditions or risk factors. Improving economic status and education for AI/AN women could help eliminate disparities in health status.

  1. Assisted reproductive techniques and the risk of anorectal malformations: a German case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwink, Nadine; Jenetzky, Ekkehart; Schmiedeke, Eberhard; Schmidt, Dominik; Märzheuser, Stefanie; Grasshoff-Derr, Sabine; Holland-Cunz, Stefan; Weih, Sandra; Hosie, Stuart; Reifferscheid, Peter; Ameis, Helen; Kujath, Christina; Rissmann, Anke; Obermayr, Florian; Schwarzer, Nicole; Bartels, Enrika; Reutter, Heiko; Brenner, Hermann

    2012-09-15

    The use of assisted reproductive techniques (ART) for treatment of infertility is increasing rapidly worldwide. However, various health effects have been reported including a higher risk of congenital malformations. Therefore, we assessed the risk of anorectal malformations (ARM) after in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Data of the German Network for Congenital Uro-REctal malformations (CURE-Net) were compared to nationwide data of the German IVF register and the Federal Statistical Office (DESTATIS). Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were determined to quantify associations using multivariable logistic regression accounting for potential confounding or interaction by plurality of births. In total, 295 ARM patients born between 1997 and 2011 in Germany, who were recruited through participating pediatric surgeries from all over Germany and the German self-help organisation SoMA, were included. Controls were all German live-births (n = 10,069,986) born between 1997 and 2010. Overall, 30 cases (10%) and 129,982 controls (1%) were born after IVF or ICSI, which translates to an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 8.7 (5.9-12.6) between ART and ARM in bivariate analyses. Separate analyses showed a significantly increased risk for ARM after IVF (OR, 10.9; 95% CI, 6.2-19.0; P risk for ARM among children born after ART. Elevations of risk were seen after both IVF and ICSI. Further, separate analyses of patients with isolated ARM, ARM with associated anomalies and those with a VATER/VACTERL association showed increased risks in each group. An increased risk of ARM was also seen among both singletons and multiple births.

  2. Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Important Underrecognised Cardiometabolic Risk Factor in Reproductive-Age Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldani, Dinka Pavicic; Skrgatic, Lana; Ougouag, Roya

    2015-01-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder amongst women of reproductive age. Although PCOS is diagnosed exclusively based on reproductive criteria, it is also a metabolic disorder. Insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, and dyslipidemia are more common in women with PCOS than in age-comparable women without PCOS. Many of the metabolic abnormalities that manifest in PCOS are worsened by the concurrent incidence of obesity. However, some of these metabolic perturbations occur even in lean women with PCOS and therefore are rightfully recognized as intrinsic to PCOS. The intrinsic factors that produce these metabolic disturbances are reviewed in this paper. The consequences of obesity and the other metabolic aberrations are also discussed. The metabolic perturbations in PCOS patients lead to chronic low-grade inflammation and to cardiovascular impairments that heighten the risk of having cardiovascular disease. Even though many studies have shown an elevation in surrogate biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in PCOS women, it is still not clear to what extent and magnitude the elevation precipitates more frequent and earlier events. PMID:26124830

  3. Sperm as an indicator of reproductive risk among petroleum refinery workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, M.J.; Wyrobek, A.J.; Ratcliffe, J.; Gordon, L.A.; Watchmaker, G.; Fox, S.H.; Moore, D.H.; Hornung, R.W.

    1985-02-01

    A questionnaire study of men in a wastewater treatment plant of a petroleum refinery showed twice the rate of fetal loss in the period during employment in the plant compared with the periods before and after. Questions regarding the interpretation of that study and continuing concern about reproductive risk prompted us to perform a cross sectional evaluation of sperm concentration and morphology. After adjustment for an abstinence period, the mean sperm concentration of the 74 unexposed men did not differ significantly from that of the 34 exposed men (79.9 million/cm/sup 3/ v 68.2 million/cm/sup 3/, p(1) . 0.16). The two groups also had a similar proportion of sperm with abnormal morphology (49.1% v 44.5%, p(1) . 0.94). This lack of association remained when degree of exposure, age, use of alcohol and marijuana, past illness or fever, use of baths or sauna, and history of urological problems were considered. These results are most consistent with the absence of sperm mediated reproductive problems.

  4. Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Important Underrecognised Cardiometabolic Risk Factor in Reproductive-Age Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinka Pavicic Baldani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS is the most common endocrine disorder amongst women of reproductive age. Although PCOS is diagnosed exclusively based on reproductive criteria, it is also a metabolic disorder. Insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, and dyslipidemia are more common in women with PCOS than in age-comparable women without PCOS. Many of the metabolic abnormalities that manifest in PCOS are worsened by the concurrent incidence of obesity. However, some of these metabolic perturbations occur even in lean women with PCOS and therefore are rightfully recognized as intrinsic to PCOS. The intrinsic factors that produce these metabolic disturbances are reviewed in this paper. The consequences of obesity and the other metabolic aberrations are also discussed. The metabolic perturbations in PCOS patients lead to chronic low-grade inflammation and to cardiovascular impairments that heighten the risk of having cardiovascular disease. Even though many studies have shown an elevation in surrogate biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in PCOS women, it is still not clear to what extent and magnitude the elevation precipitates more frequent and earlier events.

  5. Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Important Underrecognised Cardiometabolic Risk Factor in Reproductive-Age Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldani, Dinka Pavicic; Skrgatic, Lana; Ougouag, Roya

    2015-01-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder amongst women of reproductive age. Although PCOS is diagnosed exclusively based on reproductive criteria, it is also a metabolic disorder. Insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, and dyslipidemia are more common in women with PCOS than in age-comparable women without PCOS. Many of the metabolic abnormalities that manifest in PCOS are worsened by the concurrent incidence of obesity. However, some of these metabolic perturbations occur even in lean women with PCOS and therefore are rightfully recognized as intrinsic to PCOS. The intrinsic factors that produce these metabolic disturbances are reviewed in this paper. The consequences of obesity and the other metabolic aberrations are also discussed. The metabolic perturbations in PCOS patients lead to chronic low-grade inflammation and to cardiovascular impairments that heighten the risk of having cardiovascular disease. Even though many studies have shown an elevation in surrogate biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in PCOS women, it is still not clear to what extent and magnitude the elevation precipitates more frequent and earlier events.

  6. Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMichael Anthony J

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century ad. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change. See research article http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/112

  7. Supply chain risk management: review, classification and future research directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittal, M.L.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to be more efficient, firms have adopted strategies such as outsourcing, global partnerships and lean practices. Although such strategies have tremendous abilities to improve the efficiencies but simultaneously they make the firms vulnerable to market uncertainties, dependencies and disruptions. Moreover, natural calamities and manmade crises have also put negative impact on strategic, operational and tactical performance of supply chains. These factors have triggered the interest of academia and industry to consider the risk issues as prime concerns. To capture the more fine-grained elements of diversified risk issues related to the supply chain we employ a multi-layered top town taxonomy to classify and codify the literature and put forward the probable dimensions for future research. We further study the pool of SCRM literature focusing on coordination, decision making and sector-wise SCRM implementation issues and derive relevant propositions.

  8. Biodiversity at risk under future cropland expansion and intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehoe, Laura; Romero-Muñoz, Alfredo; Polaina, Ester; Estes, Lyndon; Kreft, Holger; Kuemmerle, Tobias

    2017-08-01

    Agriculture is the leading driver of biodiversity loss. However, its future impact on biodiversity remains unclear, especially because agricultural intensification is often neglected, and high path-dependency is assumed when forecasting agricultural development-although the past suggests that shock events leading to considerable agricultural change occur frequently. Here, we investigate the possible impacts on biodiversity of pathways of expansion and intensification. Our pathways are not built to reach equivalent production targets, and therefore they should not be directly compared; they instead highlight areas at risk of high biodiversity loss across the entire option space of possible agricultural change. Based on an extensive database of biodiversity responses to agriculture, we find 30% of species richness and 31% of species abundances potentially lost because of agricultural expansion across the Amazon and Afrotropics. Only 21% of high-risk expansion areas in the Afrotropics overlap with protected areas (compared with 43% of the Neotropics). Areas at risk of biodiversity loss from intensification are found in India, Eastern Europe and the Afromontane region (7% species richness, 13% abundance loss). Many high-risk regions are not adequately covered by conservation prioritization schemes, and have low national conservation spending and high agricultural growth. Considering rising agricultural demand, we highlight areas where timely land-use planning may proactively mitigate biodiversity loss.

  9. Ovulatory disorders are an independent risk factor for pregnancy complications in women receiving assisted reproduction treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barua, Sumita; Hng, Tien-Ming; Smith, Howard; Bradford, Jennifer; McLean, Mark

    2017-06-01

    Conception using assisted reproduction treatments (ART) has been associated with an increased risk of pregnancy complications. It is uncertain if this is caused by ART directly, or is an association of the underlying factors causing infertility. We assessed the relationship between assisted conception (AC) and maternal or fetal complications in a large retrospective cohort study. In a nested cohort of women receiving infertility treatment, we determined if such risk rests predominantly with certain causes of infertility. Retrospective database analysis of 50 381 women delivering a singleton pregnancy in four public hospital obstetric units in western Sydney, and a nested cohort of 508 women receiving ART at a single fertility centre, in whom the cause of infertility was known. A total of 1727 pregnancies followed AC; 48 654 were spontaneous conceptions. Adjusted for age, body mass index and smoking, AC was associated with increased risk of preterm delivery (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50-2.02), hypertension (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.34-1.82) and diabetes (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.30-1.75). In the nested cohort, ovulatory dysfunction was present in 145 women and 336 had infertility despite normal ovulatory function. Ovulatory dysfunction was associated with increased risk of diabetes (OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.72-5.02) and hypertension (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.15-5.00) compared to women with normal ovulatory function. Assisted conception is associated with increased risk of pregnancy complications. This risk appears greatest for women whose underlying infertility involves ovulatory dysfunction. Such disorders probably predispose towards diabetes and hypertension, which is then exacerbated by pregnancy. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  10. Depression in Chinese men undergoing different assisted reproductive technique treatments: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Zhang, Yuanzhen; Zeng, Dan; Li, Fei; Cui, Dan

    2013-09-01

    To explore the prevalence and risk factors for depression in men undergoing different assisted reproductive technique (ART) treatments in Chinese population. This was a prospective study of 844 men undergoing ART treatments. All men were distributed to four groups, according to they received treatments. The treatments included IUI (intrauterine insemination), IVF(in vitro fertilization), ICSI(intra cytoplasmatic sperm injection) and TESA/PESA (percutaneous epididymal sperm aspiration/testicular sperm aspiration). Their symptoms of depression were measured with use of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies of Depression scale(CES-D). Data were collected about age, BMI, education, duration of marriage, duration of infertility, smoking, type of infertility, infertility causes, history of ejaculation failure, and financial burden of the treatment. We estimated the prevalence of depressive symptom in men undergoing different ART and used logistic regression models to identify risk factors for depression in different groups. The overall prevalence of depression was 13.3 % for men undergoing ART treatments: 14.5 % of IUI group, 12.4 % of IVF group, 19.2 % of ICSI group and 6.2 % of TESA/PESA group. Prevalence of depression among IUI group, IVF group and ICSI group were not significantly different. For IUI group, the factors were found to increase depression risk were treatment financial burden and duration of marriage, to decrease depression risk was age. For IVF group, the risk factors independently associated with depression were both male and female infertility, unexplained infertility, and history of ejaculation failure. In a sample of Chinese men undergoing ART treatments, the prevalence of depression was higher than other country. The risk factors for depression varied in different ART treatments groups. when routine screening to identify the sub-group of vulnerable men which need counselling before ART treatments, we should also consider which pattern of ART

  11. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  12. Risk-informed design guidance for future reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delaney, Michael J.; Apostolakis, George E.; Driscoll, Michael J.

    2005-01-01

    Future reactor designs face an uncertain regulatory environment. It is anticipated that there will be some level of probabilistic insights in the regulations and supporting regulatory documents for Generation-IV nuclear reactors. Central to current regulations are design basis accidents (DBAs) and the general design criteria (GDC), which were established before probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were developed. These regulations implement a structuralist approach to safety through traditional defense in depth and large safety margins. In a rationalist approach to safety, accident frequencies are quantified and protective measures are introduced to make these frequencies acceptably low. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages and future reactor design and licensing processes will have to implement a hybrid approach. This paper presents an iterative four-step risk-informed methodology to guide the design of future-reactor systems using a gas-cooled fast reactor emergency core cooling system as an example. This methodology helps designers to analyze alternative designs under potential risk-informed regulations and to anticipate design justifications the regulator may require during the licensing process. The analysis demonstrated the importance of common-cause failures and the need for guidance on how to change the quantitative impact of these potential failures on the frequency of accident sequences as the design changes. Deliberation is an important part of the four-step methodology because it supplements the quantitative results by allowing the inclusion in the design choice of elements such as best design practices and ease of online maintenance, which usually cannot be quantified. The case study showed that, in some instances, the structuralist and the rationalist approaches were inconsistent. In particular, GDC 35 treats the double-ended break of the largest pipe in the reactor coolant system with concurrent loss of offsite power and a single

  13. Placental histological inflammation and reproductive tract infections in a low risk pregnant population in Latvia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezeberga, Dace; Lazdane, Gunta; Kroica, Juta; Sokolova, Ludmila; Donders, Gilbert G G

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the correlation of reproductive tract infections (RTI) and endogenous vaginal flora at first antenatal consultation with placental histological inflammation. In a follow-up study, 154 low risk women with no miscarriage risk factors were examined for the presence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, Chlamydia trachomatis, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Mycoplasma hominis, Gardnerella vaginalis, Streptococcus agalactiae (GBS), Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecalis (GDS) and bacterial vaginosis (BV). At delivery, outcome data were collected and the histology of the placenta was studied. Some 85 (56.3%) of all pregnant women had RTI or endogenous vaginal flora. Placental histological inflammation correlated with genital tract colonisation with G. vaginalis (p =0.013), BV (p =0.031), S. aureus (p =0.04) and aerobic vaginitis (p =0.017). BV and BV-related G. vaginalis correlated with the presence of parietal and placental chorioamnionitis in 53.8 and 43.5% of cases. Genital tract colonisation with GDS and other aerobic flora in combination with inflammatory vaginitis correlated with the presence of funisitis in 33.3 and 40.0% of cases. Mycoplasmas increased the risk for intrauterine infection only when present in combination with other RTIs (p =0.023). Histological placental inflammation is associated with both BV and genital tract colonisation with aerobic bacteria, while funisitis is associated with colonisation of aerobic bacteria at first prenatal visit before the 17th gestational week.

  14. Risk factors for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome outbreaks in Vietnamese small stock farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, V M; Gummow, B

    2014-07-01

    To examine risk factors that could have played a role in the 2010 porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreak in Yenhung district, Quangninh province, North-Vietnam, with the purpose of establishing why existing control measures implemented after previous outbreaks had failed to prevent further outbreaks. A case-control study was carried out in Yenhung district. Data were obtained by an interview-based questionnaire survey. The sampling unit was households, which equated to small-scale pig farms. A total of 150 case and 150 control households were selected at communes affected by the 2010 PRRS epidemic during April to June. Risk factors were analysed using binary logistic regression and unconditional multiple logistic regression. Households infected with PRRS were significantly associated with multiple variables belonging to three main groups: (1) location of the farms: i.e. farms positioned risk factor most strongly associated with infected households in the 2010 outbreak (OR=22; 95% CI=12-42). The results show that the epidemiology of PRRS in Quangninh province was linked to sociological and cultural practices, and that effective PRRS control needs an integrated approach coupled with behavioural changes in the pig raising practices of the general public. Failure to recognise this could explain why further outbreaks have occurred.

  15. Possible risk for cancer among children born following assisted reproductive technology in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner-Geva, Liat; Boyko, Valentina; Ehrlich, Shelley; Mashiach, Shlomo; Hourvitz, Ariel; Haas, Jigal; Margalioth, Ehud; Levran, David; Calderon, Ilan; Orvieto, Raoul; Ellenbogen, Adrian; Meyerovitch, Joseph; Ron-El, Raphael; Farhi, Adel

    2017-04-01

    Among children conceived by assisted reproductive technology (ART), increased risk of adverse birth outcomes has been observed, including multiple births, preterm births, and congenital malformations. Regarding cancer among ART-conceived children, findings are discrepant. This is a historical cohort of 9,042 ART-conceived children and 211,763 spontaneously conceived (SC) children born from 1997 through 2004. The median duration of follow-up was 10.6 years (interquartile range 9.0-12.3) in the ART group and 9.3 years (interquartile range 8.0-10.6) in the SC group. The cohort database was linked with the Israel National Cancer Registry updated until December 31, 2011 using each child's personal identification number. Twenty-one cases of cancer were identified in the ART group (2.2 per 10,000 person-years), as compared to 361 cancer cases in the SC group (1.8 per 10,000 person-years). The relative risk (RR) for overall cancer in the ART group compared to the SC group adjusted for maternal characteristics was 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80-1.75). ART children had a significantly increased risk for specific cancers, although based on small number of cases, including two cases of retinoblastoma (RR 6.18, 95% CI 1.22-31.2), as well as four cases of renal tumors (RR 3.25, 95% CI 1.67-6.32). A statistically significant increased risk for two pediatric cancers was found. However, for overall types of cancer the risk estimate was elevated but not statistically significant. Further studies with larger sample size and longer follow-up time are warranted in order to either confirm or refute these findings. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Reproductive risk factor associations with lobular and ductal carcinoma in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Lindsay A; Nichols, Hazel B; Hoadley, Katherine A; Tse, Chiu Kit; Geradts, Joseph; Bell, Mary Elizabeth; Perou, Charles M; Love, Michael I; Olshan, Andrew F; Troester, Melissa A

    2018-01-01

    Invasive lobular breast tumors display unique reproductive risk factor profiles. Lobular tumors are predominantly Luminal A subtype, and it is unclear whether reported risk factor associations are independent of molecular subtype. Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the associations between risk factors and histologic subtype [ductal (n = 2,856), lobular (n = 326), and mixed ductal-lobular (n = 473)] in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (1993-2013). Three-marker immunohistochemical clinical subtypes were defined as Luminal A (ER+ or PR+/HER2-), Luminal B (ER+ or PR+/HER2+), Triple Negative (ER-/PR-/HER2-), and HER2+ (ER-/PR-/HER2+). In case-case analyses compared to ductal, lobular tumors were significantly associated with lactation duration > 12 months [OR 1.86, 95% CI (1.33-2.60)], age at first birth ≥ 26 years [OR: 1.35, 95% CI: (1.03-1.78)], and current oral contraceptive use [OR: 1.86, 95% CI: (1.08-3.20)]. Differences in risk factor associations between ductal and lobular tumors persisted after restricting to Luminal A subtype. Lobular tumors were associated with older age at first birth, increased lactation duration, and current oral contraceptive use. Etiologic heterogeneity by histology persisted after restricting to Luminal A subtype, suggesting both tumor histology and intrinsic subtype play integral parts in breast cancer risk.

  17. Neonatal delivery weight and risk of future maternal diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Andrea E; Amer-Wåhlin, Isis; Källen, Karin B M

    2018-01-01

    To investigate associations between neonatal delivery weight and future risk of maternal type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Data included in the Swedish Medical Birth Registry and Swedish National Diabetes Registry were merged to include all women born during 1930-1989; patients with pre-existing diabetes or gestational diabetes were excluded. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify associations between the neonatal delivery weight from the most recent pregnancy and later occurrence of diabetes. There were 1 873 440 patients included in the analyses. An increased risk of type 1 (hazard ratio 3.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.23-4.01) or type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 2.77, 95% CI 2.68-2.87) was observed among patients who had a large for gestational age neonate compared with patients who had neonates within one standard definition of the mean weight for gestational age; the odds of developing type 1 (odds ratio 10.27, 95% CI 7.37-14.31) or type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 8.50, 95% CI 6.01-12.02) within 1 year of delivery was also increased compared with patients who had a neonate within one standard deviation of the mean weight for gestational age. Delivering a large for gestational age neonate was a potent risk factor for the later development of maternal type 1 or type 2 diabetes. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

  18. Twinning in Iranian Holstein Dairy Cattle: A Study of Risk Factors and Production and Reproduction Consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    abolfazl mahnani

    2016-08-01

    in lifetime production than cows single.The aim of this study was to estimate the rate of twinning in Iranian Holstein dairy cows and the estimated effect on production traits and reproductive twinning. Material and method Data from 9 Holstein dairy herds from 2 regions, Khorasan Resavie and Isfahan, in Iran during the period 2001 to 2013 were used. Editing of initial data set was done with Excel. Duplicate observations, missing data for calf condition and cows with age at first calving 45 month were excluded. Following all edits, 160,410 calving records of 52,562 cows were utilized. According to binary nature of twinning, a logistical regression model was constructed to estimate the effect of bio-environmental risk factors on twinning using the LOGISTIC procedure of SAS the used model was as follows: Logit (π = α + β1X1+ β2X2+…. + βnXn (1 A linear mixed model was used to analyze twinning effect on productive and reproductive traits using Proc Mixed of SAS Software. In this model fixed effects were included herd effect, calving season (calving year, parity, twinning, stillbirth and dystocia. The effect of other factors were considered as random. The mixed linear model used for this analysis included: (2 Results and discussion The incidence of twinning cases per cow per year was 2.7 %, on average. Herd, calving year, calving season and parity had a significant relationship with the incidence of twinning (P

  19. EXPOSURE TO INTERMITTENT AIR POLLUTION AND CHANGES IN SEMEN QUALITY: EVIDENCE FOR AN ASSOCIATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REPRODUCTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure to Intermittent Air Pollution and Changes in Semen Quality:Evidence for an Association and Implications for Reproductive Risk Assessment. S. D. Perreault1, S.G. Selevan2, J. Rubes3, D. Zudova3, and D.P. Evenson4 1US EPA, ORD/NHEERL, Research Triangle Pa...

  20. Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J.; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

    2015-01-01

    To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score

  1. Research on the Risk Measurement for the Futures Market of Bulk Commodity – Taking the silver futures as the example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Du Yating

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The futures transaction of bulk commodity has played an important role since China became the global manufacturing center. Taking the commodity futures market in Shanghai as the research objective, this article selects the price of silver futures, uses GARCH-VaR and Stress Testing to measure the risk tolerance of the market. The research result shows the silver price is fluctuated within the scope specified by the market and won't influence the stable operation of futures market.

  2. Identifying environmental risk to male reproductive function by occupational sperm studies: logistics and design options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonde, J P; Giwercman, A; Ernst, E

    1996-01-01

    Malfunction of the male reproductive system might be a sensitive marker of environmental hazards, the effects of which may extend beyond reproductive function. The testis is more vulnerable to heat and ionising radiation than any other organ of the body and several xenobiotics are known to disrupt spermatogenesis after low level exposure. Studies of environmental impact on human health are often most informative and accurate when carried out in the workplace where exposures can be high and easy to document. Semen analysis provides readily obtainable information on testicular function. The main advantages in comparison with functional measures such as fertility rates and time taken to conceive are the possibilities to examine men independently of marriage and pregnancy, to find changes of fecundity with different exposures within the same person and to detect adverse effects when no alteration of fertility is yet taking place. In the implementation of an occupational sperm study considerable attention must be paid to logistic issues. A mobile laboratory unit for initial semen preparation and processing may in some situations increase worker compliance and the quality of sperm cell motility. The cross sectional design which has been used in almost all male reproductive studies so far has several severe limitations including selection bias because of differential participation, difficulties in defining a suitable reference group, and lack of information about the time dimension of the cause-effect relation. The longitudinal design deals adequately with most of these constraints. Semen samples are collected before, during, and possibly after exposure to the risk factor of interest and causal inferences are based upon change of semen variables within a man over time rather than upon differences between men. The logistics of the longitudinal study may benefit from pre-employment health examinations to enrol newly hired workers and require fewer participants to obtain

  3. Consideration on risk reduction of future breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.

    1990-09-01

    An overall concept of risk minimization of future sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is presented in this report. Since shutdown reliability is of vital importance for the breeder safety, a so-called third shutdown level is proposed in addition to the two independent fast shutdown systems. It is basically a group of passive and active measures, which are capable to bring the reactor to safe conditions in all conceivable accident-initiating events and in case of total failure of the two actual shutdown systems. Core disruptions as a result of shutdown failure are therefore beyond the scope of technical imagination. Measures are also foreseen to combat other conceivable causes of core disruption, in particular to achieve residual heat removal with essentially passive systems by making use of the good natural circulation capacity of sodium. On top of that, since absolute safety can never be claimed, damage-limiting containment measures are discussed

  4. Psychosocial risks associated with multiple births resulting from assisted reproduction: a Spanish sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roca de Bes, Montserrat; Gutierrez Maldonado, José; Gris Martínez, José M

    2009-09-01

    To determine the psychosocial risks associated with multiple births (twins or triplets) resulting from assisted reproductive technology (ART). Transverse study. Infertility units of a university hospital and a private hospital. Mothers and fathers of children between 6 months and 4 years conceived by ART (n = 123). The sample was divided into three groups: parents of singletons (n = 77), twins (n = 37), and triplets (n = 9). The questionnaire was self-administered by patients. It was either completed at the hospital or mailed to participants' homes. Scales measured material needs, quality of life, social stigma, depression, stress, and marital satisfaction. Logistic regression models were applied. Significant odds ratios were obtained for the number of children, material needs, social stigma, quality of life, and marital satisfaction. The results were more significant for data provided by mothers than by fathers. The informed consent form handed out at the beginning of ART should include information on the high risk of conceiving twins and triplets and on the possible psychosocial consequences of multiple births. As soon as a multiple pregnancy is confirmed, it would be useful to provide information on support groups and institutions. Psychological advice should also be given to the parents.

  5. Loneliness and Suicidal Risk in Young Adults: Does Believing in a Changeable Future Help Minimize Suicidal Risk Among the Lonely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Edward C; Wan, Liangqiu; Li, Pengzi; Guo, Yuncheng; He, Jiaying; Gu, Yu; Wang, Yingjie; Li, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Zhan; Sun, Yingrui; Batterbee, Casey N-H; Chang, Olivia D; Lucas, Abigael G; Hirsch, Jameson K

    2017-07-04

    This study examined loneliness and future orientation as predictors of suicidal risk, namely, depressive symptoms and suicide ideation, in a sample of 228 college students (54 males and 174 females). Results of regression analyses indicated that loneliness was a significant predictor of both indices of suicidal risk. The inclusion of future orientation was found to significantly augment the prediction model of both depressive symptoms and suicide ideation, even after accounting for loneliness. Noteworthy, beyond loneliness and future orientation, the Loneliness × Future Orientation interaction term was found to further augment both prediction models of suicidal risk. Consistent with the notion that future orientation is an important buffer of suicidal risk, among lonely students, those with high future orientation, compared to low future orientation, were found to report significantly lower levels of depressive symptoms and suicide ideation. Some implications of the present findings for studying both risk and protective factors associated with suicidal risk in young adults are discussed.

  6. Regulating (for the benefit of) future persons: a different perspective on the FDA's jurisdiction to regulate human reproductive cloning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javitt, Gail H; Hudson, Kathy

    2003-01-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has taken the position that human reproductive cloning falls within its regulatory jurisdiction. This position has been subject to criticism on both procedural and substantive grounds. Some have contended that the FDA has failed to follow administrative law principles in asserting its jurisdiction, while others claim the FDA is ill suited to the task of addressing the ethical and social implications of human cloning. This Article argues, that, notwithstanding these criticisms, the FDA could plausibly assert jurisdiction over human cloning as a form of human gene therapy, an area in which the FDA is already regarded as having primary regulatory authority. Such an assertion would require that the FDA's jurisdiction extend to products affecting future persons, i.e., those not yet born. This Article demonstrates, for the first time, that such jurisdiction was implicit in the enactment of the 1962 Kefauver-Harris Amendments to the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and that the FDA has historically relied on such authority in promulgating regulations for drugs and devices.

  7. PREPARING FUTURE TEACHERS TO RISK WARNING IN PEDAGOGICAL ACTIVITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryna Butyrina

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to identify the peculiarities of professional activities for teachers’ physical and mental health; to implement comprehensive analysis of the negative impact on teaching profession; to disclose accidents and mental destruction of future teachers’ individuals. The professional health is an integral characteristic of functional state of human mental and physical indicators to assess his/her abilities to a certain professional activities and practice of a given duration over a period of life and endurance to adverse factors that accompany this activity. Violation of a teacher’s mental and physical health, signs of combustion syndrome affect the students’ health. So the problem of preserving and strengthening teachers’ health should be a priority in his/her life and among professional problems; the main object of study is future teachers’ training in the course “Health in the field (of education”. Distinctive features of the teaching profession reflect the state of his/her health: working as a teacher is both mental and physical activity, which combines creative, organizational and research ones; high density of interpersonal contacts; a lot of stress, high nervous and emotional tension; periodic need for the scheduled amount of work in a tightly regulated period; special responsibility for students and colleagues; the need to make operational decisions; significant mobilization of analyzers, attention, and memory functions. In educational activities along with common risk factors for mental health (such as neuro-emotional stress, information overload, hypokinesia there are specific risk factors such as a significant voice load, prevalence static load, a large amount of visual work, violation of work regime and rest points. The unfavorable effects of teaching profession, such as neuro-psychiatric and physical (static overloading teachers, in addition to occupational diseases can also lead to accidents due to

  8. Current and future flood risk to railway infrastructure in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, Philip; Kellermann, Patric; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Dillenardt, Lisa; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-04-01

    CORINE, due to their line shapes. To assess current and future damage and risk to railway infrastructure in Europe, we apply the damage model RAIL -' RAilway Infrastructure Loss' that was specifically developed for railway infrastructure using empirical damage data. To adequately and comprehensively capture the line-shaped features of railway infrastructure, the assessment makes use of the open-access data set of openrailway.org. Current and future flood hazard in Europe is obtained with the LISFLOOD-based pan-European flood hazard mapping procedure combined with ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The presentation shows first results of the combination of the hazard data and the model RAIL for Europe.

  9. Rational expectations, risk and efficiency in energy futures markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (CA). Dept. of Economics)

    1991-04-01

    Conditional on the hypothesis that energy futures markets are efficient or rational, this paper uses Fama's regression approach to measure the information in energy futures prices about future spot prices and time varying premiums. The paper finds that the premium and expected future spot price components of energy futures prices are negatively correlated and that most of the variation in futures prices is variation in expected premiums. (author).

  10. Risk factors associated with detailed reproductive phenotypes in dairy and beef cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carthy, T R; Berry, D P; Fitzgerald, A; McParland, S; Williams, E J; Butler, S T; Cromie, A R; Ryan, D

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify detailed fertility traits in dairy and beef cattle from transrectal ultrasonography records and quantify the associated risk factors. Data were available on 148 947 ultrasound observations of the reproductive tract from 75 949 cows in 843 Irish dairy and beef herds between March 2008 and October 2012. Traits generated included (1) cycling at time of examination, (2) cystic structures, (3) early ovulation, (4) embryo death and (5) uterine score; the latter was measured on a scale of 1 (good) to 4 (poor) characterising the tone of the uterine wall and fluid present in the uterus. After editing, 72,773 records from 44,415 dairy and beef cows in 643 herds remained. Factors associated with the logit of the probability of a positive outcome for each of the binary fertility traits were determined using generalised estimating equations; linear mixed model analysis was used for the analysis of uterine score. The prevalence of cycling, cystic structures, early ovulation and embryo death was 84.75%, 3.87%, 7.47% and 3.84%, respectively. The occurrence of the uterine heath score of 1, 2, 3 and 4 was 70.63%, 19.75%, 8.36% and 1.26%, respectively. Cows in beef herds had a 0.51 odds (95% CI=0.41 to 0.63, Pscore (indicating poorer tone and a greater quantity of uterine fluid present) compared with cows in beef herds. The likelihood of cycling at the time of examination increased with parity and stage of lactation, but was reduced in cows that had experienced dystocia in the previous calving. The presence of cystic structures on the ovaries increased with parity and stage of lactation. The likelihood of embryo/foetal death increased with parity and stage of lactation. Dystocia was not associated with the presence of cystic structures or embryo death. Uterine score improved with parity and stage of lactation, while cows that experienced dystocia in the previous calving had an inferior uterine score. Heterosis was the only factor associated

  11. Reproductive health and access to healthcare facilities: risk factors for depression and anxiety in women with an earthquake experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Jasim; Mpofu, Elias; Matthews, Lynda R; Shadoul, Ahmed Farah; Brock, Kaye E

    2011-06-30

    The reproductive and mental health of women contributes significantly to their overall well-being. Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals are directly related to reproductive and sexual health while mental disorders make up three of the ten leading causes of disease burden in low and middle-income countries. Among mental disorders, depression and anxiety are two of the most prevalent. In the context of slower progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals in developing countries and the ever-increasing man-made and natural disasters in these areas, it is important to understand the association between reproductive health and mental health among women with post-disaster experiences. This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 387 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) randomly selected from the October 2005 earthquake affected areas of Pakistan. Data on reproductive health was collected using the Centers for Disease Control reproductive health assessment toolkit. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, while earthquake experiences were captured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The association of either depression or anxiety with socio-demographic variables, earthquake experiences, reproductive health and access to health facilities was estimated using multivariate logistic regression. Post-earthquake reproductive health events together with economic deprivation, lower family support and poorer access to health care facilities explained a significant proportion of differences in the experiencing of clinical levels of depression and anxiety. For instance, women losing resources for subsistence, separation from family and experiencing reproductive health events such as having a stillbirth, having had an abortion, having had abnormal vaginal discharge or having had genital ulcers, were at significant risk of depression and anxiety. The relationship between women's post-earthquake mental health and

  12. Menstrual and reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer: A case-control study in the Fez region, Morocco.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Khalis

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide. In the Moroccan context, the role of well-known reproductive factors in breast cancer remains poorly documented. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between menstrual and reproductive factors and breast cancer risk in Moroccan women in the Fez region.A case-control study was conducted at the Hassan II University Hospital of Fez between January 2014 and April 2015. A total of 237 cases of breast cancer and 237 age-matched controls were included. Information on sociodemographic characteristics, menstrual and reproductive history, family history of breast cancer, and lifestyle factors was obtained through a structured questionnaire. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for breast cancer by menstrual and reproductive factors adjusted for potential confounders.Early menarche (OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.08-2.38 and nulliparity (OR = 3.77, 95% CI: 1.98-7.30 were significantly related to an increased risk of breast cancer, whereas an early age at first full-term pregnancy was associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.25-0.65.The results of this study confirm the role of established reproductive factors for breast cancer in Moroccan women. It identified some susceptible groups at high risk of breast cancer. Preventive interventions and screening should focus on these groups as a priority. These results should be confirmed in a larger, multicenter study.

  13. Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J

    2015-08-01

    To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score score score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score score matching, the risk of an Apgar score Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Current and future availability of and need for human resources for sexual, reproductive, maternal and newborn health in 41 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra Arias, Maria; Nove, Andrea; Michel-Schuldt, Michaela; de Bernis, Luc

    2017-05-03

    The WHO African region, covering the majority of Sub-Saharan Africa, faces the highest rates of maternal and neonatal mortality in the world. This study uses data from the State of the World's Midwifery 2014 survey to cast a spotlight on the WHO African region, highlight the specific characteristics of its sexual, reproductive, maternal and newborn health (SRMNH) workforce and describe and compare countries' different trajectories in terms of meeting the population need for services. Using data from 41 African countries, this study used a mathematical model to estimate potential met need for SRMNH services, defined as "the percentage of a universal SRMNH package that could potentially be obtained by women and newborns given the composition, competencies and available working time of the SRMNH workforce." The model defined the 46 key interventions included in this universal SRMNH package and allocated them to the available health worker time and skill set in each country to estimate the potential met need. Based on the current and projected potential met need in the future, the countries were grouped into three categories: (1) 'making or maintaining progress' (expected to meet more, or the same level, of the need in the future than currently): 14 countries including Ghana, Senegal and South Africa, (2) 'at risk' (currently performing relatively well but expected to deteriorate due to the health workforce not keeping pace with population growth): 6 countries including Gabon, Rwanda and Zambia, and (3) 'low performing' (not performing well and not expected to improve): 21 countries including Burkina Faso, Eritrea and Sierra Leone. The three groups face different challenges, and policy solutions to increasing met need should be tailored to the specific context of the country. National health workforce accounts should be strengthened so that workforce planning can be evidence-informed.

  15. Reproductive risk factors assessment for anaemia among pregnant women in India using a multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perumal, Vanamail

    2014-07-01

    To assess reproductive risk factors for anaemia among pregnant women in urban and rural areas of India. The International Institute of Population Sciences, India, carried out third National Family Health Survey in 2005-2006 to estimate a key indicator from a sample of ever-married women in the reproductive age group 15-49 years. Data on various dimensions were collected using a structured questionnaire, and anaemia was measured using a portable HemoCue instrument. Anaemia prevalence among pregnant women was compared between rural and urban areas using chi-square test and odds ratio. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Anaemia prevalence was assessed among 3355 pregnant women from rural areas and 1962 pregnant women from urban areas. Moderate-to-severe anaemia in rural areas (32.4%) is significantly more common than in urban areas (27.3%) with an excess risk of 30%. Gestational age specific prevalence of anaemia significantly increases in rural areas after 6 months. Pregnancy duration is a significant risk factor in both urban and rural areas. In rural areas, increasing age at marriage and mass media exposure are significant protective factors of anaemia. However, more births in the last five years, alcohol consumption and smoking habits are significant risk factors. In rural areas, various reproductive factors and lifestyle characteristics constitute significant risk factors for moderate-to-severe anaemia. Therefore, intensive health education on reproductive practices and the impact of lifestyle characteristics are warranted to reduce anaemia prevalence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Making sense of climate risk information: The case of future indoor climate risks in Swedish churches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustaf Leijonhufvud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizations and institutions managing built heritage have to make use of increasingly detailed, elaborate and complex climate change impact assessments. It is a challenge to determine how, when and by whom climate predictions should be translated into risk estimates usable for decision-making. In this paper results from the Climate for Culture project are used to study how heritage decision-makers interpret future indoor climate-related risks to Swedish churches. Different sets of risk maps were presented to ten engineers, ten building conservators and five experts on indoor climate related risks. Interviews were used to understand how the interviewees made sense of the presented information and if they associated it with a perceived need for adaptation. The results show that the risks were interpreted and assessed largely dependent on their pre-understanding and familiarity with the individual risks. The magnitude of change and the lack of uncertainty estimates were subordinate to the overall impression of the information as being credible and salient. The major conclusion is that the dissemination of risk information, also from projects which at the outset have aimed at producing knowledge relevant for end-users, should be both customized and tested in collaborative efforts by stakeholders and scientists.

  17. Identifying environmental risk to male reproductive function by occupational sperm studies: logistics and design options.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonde, J.P.; Giwercman, A.; Ernst, E.; Joffe, M.; Bisanti, L.; Hoorne M, van M.; Thonneau, P.; Zielhuis, G.; Kiss, P.; Abell, A.; Larsen, S.B.; Danscher, G.; Kolstad, H.

    1996-01-01

    Malfunction of the male reproductive system might be a sensitive marker of environmental hazards, the effects of which may extend beyond reproductive function. The testis is more vulnerable to heat and ionising radiation than any other organ of the body and several xenobiotics are known to disrupt

  18. ACE gene in pregnancy complications: Insights into future vascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatini, Cinzia; Romagnuolo, Ilaria; Sticchi, Elena; Rossi, Lorenza; Cellai, Anna Paola; Rogolino, Angela; Abbate, Rosanna

    2016-01-01

    A history of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications (PMPCs) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease later in life, possibly related to the persistence of endothelial dysfunction. We performed this study in order to search for a common genetic background shared by women with a history of PMPC and vascular disorders, due to their common pathophysiologic pathway of endothelial dysfunction. We analyzed the prevalence of seven polymorphisms in ACE, AGTR1, AGT, and eNOS genes, endothelial-function related, in 290 women with a history of premature cardiovascular events (CVDs), and in 367 women with a history of PMPC (preeclampsia (PE), stillbirth (SB), and small for gestational age (SGA)), compared with 300 healthy women (HW) who delivered after uneventful pregnancy (HW). ACE D allele frequency was similar between women with history of CVD and PMPC, and significantly higher than that observed in HW [OR (95% CI) 1.91, p = 0.002, and OR (95% CI) 2.18, p ACE-240T or eNOS-786C allele, a two-fold increase in SB susceptibility was evidenced (p = 0.004 and p = 0.005, respectively). Women with a history of SB and premature CVD exhibited a significantly higher unfavorable allelic burden ≥ 3 in comparison to that observed in HW (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Our findings demonstrate a common genetic background shared by women with a history of vascular disorders and PMPCs; pregnancy may be considered a window to future cardiovascular risk; therefore, "non-classic" genetic biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction might allow one to identify women who could have a greater benefit for an early cardiovascular screening and prevention.

  19. Relationship between Background Parenchymal Enhancement on High-risk Screening MRI and Future Breast Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Lars J; Saha, Ashirbani; Ghate, Sujata V; Kim, Connie; Soo, Mary Scott; Yoon, Sora C; Mazurowski, Maciej A

    2018-03-27

    To determine if background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) on screening breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in high-risk women correlates with future cancer. All screening breast MRIs (n = 1039) in high-risk women at our institution from August 1, 2004, to July 30, 2013, were identified. Sixty-one patients who subsequently developed breast cancer were matched 1:2 by age and high-risk indication with patients who did not develop breast cancer (n = 122). Five fellowship-trained breast radiologists independently recorded the BPE. The median reader BPE for each case was calculated and compared between the cancer and control cohorts. Cancer cohort patients were high-risk because of a history of radiation therapy (10%, 6 of 61), high-risk lesion (18%, 11 of 61), or breast cancer (30%, 18 of 61); BRCA mutation (18%, 11 of 61); or family history (25%, 15 of 61). Subsequent malignancies were invasive ductal carcinoma (64%, 39 of 61), ductal carcinoma in situ (30%, 18 of 61) and invasive lobular carcinoma (7%, 4of 61). BPE was significantly higher in the cancer cohort than in the control cohort (P = 0.01). Women with mild, moderate, or marked BPE were 2.5 times more likely to develop breast cancer than women with minimal BPE (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-4.8, P = .005). There was fair interreader agreement (κ = 0.39). High-risk women with greater than minimal BPE at screening MRI have increased risk of future breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Sexual and reproductive health and HIV/AIDS risk perception in the Malawi tourism industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisika, Thomas

    2009-06-01

    Malawi has for a long time relied on agriculture for the generation of foreign exchange. Due to varied reasons like climate change, the Malawi government has, therefore, identified tourism as one way of boosting foreign exchange earnings and is already in the process of developing the sector especially in the area of ecotourism. However, tourism is associated with increasing prostitution, drug abuse and a whole range of other sexual and reproductive health (SRH) problems such as teenage pregnancies, HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This paper examines the knowledge, attitudes, practices and behaviour as well as risk perceptions associated with HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies among staff in the tourism industry and communities around tourist facilities in Malawi. The study was descriptive in nature and used both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative methods involved in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The quantitative technique employed a survey of 205 purposively selected subjects from the tourism sector. The study concludes that people in the tourism sector are at high risk of HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies and should be considered as a vulnerable group. The study further observes that this group of people has not adopted behaviours that can protect them from HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies although there is high demand for voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) which offers a very good entry point for HIV prevention and treatment in the tourism sector. The study recommends that a comprehensive tourism policy covering tourists, employees and communities around tourist facilities is required. Such a policy should address the rights of HIV infected employees and the provision of prevention and treatment services for HIV/AIDS and STIs as well as a broad range of SRH and family planning services especially

  1. Does the risk of sperm competition help explain cooperation between reproductive competitors? A study in the ocellated wrasse (Symphodus ocellatus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiver, Kelly A; Alonzo, Suzanne H

    2013-03-01

    Although cooperating individuals may gain benefits, they risk being cheated by their allies. Therefore, to understand the persistence of cooperation by mutual benefits, it is important to document both the potential benefits of cooperation and the risks of cheating. We experimentally examined evidence of cooperation in the ocellated wrasse (Symphodus ocellatus), a fish species with males that exercise three reproductive strategies: satellite and sneaker males attempt to parasitically spawn in the nests of nesting males. Nesting males have been hypothesized to tolerate satellites as a result of satellite aid in defense against sneaker males and help in courting females. Here, we provide evidence that cooperation between reproductive competitors may arise in response to sperm competition from other males. After we experimentally removed satellites, nesting males had more sneakers at their nest and experienced a higher rate of sneaking when they spawned (increased sperm competition risk). When we experimentally distracted nesting males to prevent their acting aggressively toward satellites, satellites spawned with females and ate eggs in the nest. Our results suggest that nesting males and satellites gain fitness benefits of reduced direct reproductive and sperm competition through cooperation. However, nesting males risk losing paternity, while satellites experience increased aggression and must invest in aggression themselves (i.e., they act aggressively toward sneakers).

  2. Age at menopause, reproductive history, and venous thromboembolism risk among postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative Hormone Therapy clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canonico, Marianne; Plu-Bureau, Geneviève; O'Sullivan, Mary Jo; Stefanick, Marcia L; Cochrane, Barbara; Scarabin, Pierre-Yves; Manson, Joann E

    2014-03-01

    This study aims to investigate venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk in relation to age at menopause, age at menarche, parity, bilateral oophorectomy, and time since menopause, as well as any interaction with randomized hormone therapy (HT) assignment, among postmenopausal women. Using pooled data from the Women's Health Initiative HT clinical trials including 27,035 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years who had no history of VTE, we assessed the risk of VTE in relation to age at menopause, age at menarche, parity, bilateral oophorectomy, and time since menopause by Cox proportional hazards models. Linear trends, quadratic relationships, and interactions of reproductive life characteristics with HT on VTE risk were systematically tested. During follow-up, 426 women reported a first VTE, including 294 non-procedure-related events. No apparent interaction of reproductive life characteristics with HT assignment on VTE risk was detected, and there was not a significant association between VTE and age at menarche, age at menopause, parity, oophorectomy, or time since menopause. However, analyses restricted to non-procedure-related VTE showed a U-shaped relationship between age at menopause and thrombotic risk that persisted after multivariable analysis (P menopause, those who had early menopause (age menopause (age >55 y) had a significantly increased VTE risk (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 1.8 [1.2-2.7] and 1.5 [1.0-2.4], respectively). Reproductive life characteristics have little association with VTE and do not seem to influence the effect of HT on thrombotic risk among postmenopausal women. Nevertheless, early and late onset of menopause might be newly identified risk factors for non-procedure-related VTE.

  3. Are repeated assisted reproductive technology treatments and an unsuccessful outcome risk factors for unipolar depression in infertile women?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejbaek, Camilla S; Pinborg, Anja; Hageman, Ida

    2015-01-01

    of unipolar depression compared with women with a live birth after ART treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Danish National ART-Couple (DANAC) Cohort is a national register-based cohort study that consists of women who received ART treatment from 1 January 1994 to 30 September 2009, in Denmark (n = 41 050......INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have shown conflicting results whether unsuccessful medically assisted reproduction is a risk factor for depression among women. This study therefore investigated if women with no live birth after assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment had a higher risk......). Information on unipolar depression was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register. The analyses were conducted in Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: During the 308 494 person-years of follow up, 552 women were diagnosed with unipolar depression. A Cox proportional hazards model showed...

  4. Factors associated with monozygosity in assisted reproductive technology pregnancies and the risk of recurrence using linked cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Barbara; Brown, Morton B; Wantman, Ethan; Stern, Judy E

    2014-03-01

    To evaluate factors associated with monozygosity (MZ) (number of fetal heartbeats on early ultrasound greater than the number of embryos transferred) and the risk of recurrence in subsequent pregnancies using a national assisted reproduction database. Historical cohort study. Clinic-based data. 197,327 pregnancies (including 2,824 with evidence of MZ) from cycles reported to the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System (SART CORS) between 2004 and 2010. None. Evidence of MZ, adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals computed from logistic regression models. In the univariate analysis, the risk of MZ was increased with ovulation disorders, donor oocytes, gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRH-a) suppression, assisted hatching (AZH), and day 5-6 transfer, and was decreased with higher follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) doses (≥3,000 IU). In the multivariate analysis, the risk of MZ was increased with GnRH-a suppression, AZH, and decreased with intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and higher FSH dose. The interaction showed that although MZ was more likely with day 5-6 embryos, AZH had a minimal nonsignificant effect, whereas in day 2-3 embryos, AZH had a substantial statistically significant effect. Only one woman had a recurrence of MZ in a subsequent assisted reproduction pregnancy, which is consistent with randomness. The risk of MZ was higher with fresh day 5-6 embryos, donor oocytes, GnRH-a suppression, lower FSH doses, and AZH (particularly with day 2-3 embryos). Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  6. Perception of risk and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, P.

    1990-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers were slow to recognize the importance of public attitudes and perceptions in shaping the fate of nuclear power. In 1976, Alvin Weinberg observed: 'As I compare the issues we perceived during the infancy of nuclear energy with those that have emerged during its maturity, the public perception and acceptance of nuclear energy appears to be the question that we missed rather badly.... This issue has emerged as the most critical question concerning the future of nuclear energy.' Today, fourteen years later, the problem of public acceptance is even more critical. Either the problem is damn tough or we have not been working hard enough to solve it (I suspect that both of these assertions are true). Public support for nuclear power has declined steadily for a decade and a half, driven by a number of powerful forces and events. In mid-March of 1979, the movie The China Syndrome had its premier, dramatizing the worst-case predictions of the earliest risk assessment studies. Two weeks later, events at Three Mile Island made the movie appear prophetic. Succeeding years have brought us Chernobyl and other major technological disasters, most notably Bhopal and the Challenger accident. The public has drawn a common message from these accidents - that nuclear (and other) complex technology is unsafe, that expertise is inadequate, and that government and industry cannot be trusted to manage nuclear power safely. These dramatic accidents and the distrust they have spawned have been reinforced by numerous chronic problems involving radiation, such as the discovery of significant radon concentrations in many homes, the continuing battles over the siting of facilities to store or dispose of nuclear wastes, and the disclosures of serious environmental contamination emanating from nuclear weapons facilities (at Hanford, Fernald, Rocky Flats and Savannah River)

  7. Perception of risk and the future of nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, P [University of Oregon and Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    1990-07-01

    Scientists and policy makers were slow to recognize the importance of public attitudes and perceptions in shaping the fate of nuclear power. In 1976, Alvin Weinberg observed: 'As I compare the issues we perceived during the infancy of nuclear energy with those that have emerged during its maturity, the public perception and acceptance of nuclear energy appears to be the question that we missed rather badly.... This issue has emerged as the most critical question concerning the future of nuclear energy.' Today, fourteen years later, the problem of public acceptance is even more critical. Either the problem is damn tough or we have not been working hard enough to solve it (I suspect that both of these assertions are true). Public support for nuclear power has declined steadily for a decade and a half, driven by a number of powerful forces and events. In mid-March of 1979, the movie The China Syndrome had its premier, dramatizing the worst-case predictions of the earliest risk assessment studies. Two weeks later, events at Three Mile Island made the movie appear prophetic. Succeeding years have brought us Chernobyl and other major technological disasters, most notably Bhopal and the Challenger accident. The public has drawn a common message from these accidents - that nuclear (and other) complex technology is unsafe, that expertise is inadequate, and that government and industry cannot be trusted to manage nuclear power safely. These dramatic accidents and the distrust they have spawned have been reinforced by numerous chronic problems involving radiation, such as the discovery of significant radon concentrations in many homes, the continuing battles over the siting of facilities to store or dispose of nuclear wastes, and the disclosures of serious environmental contamination emanating from nuclear weapons facilities (at Hanford, Fernald, Rocky Flats and Savannah River)

  8. Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: Important Underrecognised Cardiometabolic Risk Factor in Reproductive-Age Women

    OpenAIRE

    Baldani, Dinka Pavicic; Skrgatic, Lana; Ougouag, Roya

    2015-01-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder amongst women of reproductive age. Although PCOS is diagnosed exclusively based on reproductive criteria, it is also a metabolic disorder. Insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, and dyslipidemia are more common in women with PCOS than in age-comparable women without PCOS. Many of the metabolic abnormalities that manifest in PCOS are worsened by the concurrent incidence of obesity...

  9. Cervical conization doubles the risk of preterm and very preterm birth in assisted reproductive technology twin pregnancies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinborg, A; Ortoft, G; Loft, A

    2015-01-01

    for the height of the cervical cone or the severity of the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or the time window between diagnosis of CIN and ART treatment. The finding on an increased risk of VPTB in ART twin pregnancies after dysplasia without conization may be random as we found no other increased risk......STUDY QUESTION: Does cervical conization add an additional risk of preterm birth (PTB) in assisted reproduction technology (ART) singleton and twin pregnancies? SUMMARY ANSWER: Cervical conization doubles the risk of preterm and very PTB in ART twin pregnancies. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: ART...... and cervical conization are both risk factors for PTB. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: In this national population-based controlled cohort study, we included all ART singletons and twin deliveries from 1995 to 2009 in Denmark by cross-linkage of maternal and child data from the National IVF register...

  10. The Future Regulatory Challenges of Liquidity Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Petr Teply

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and...

  11. Assisted reproductive technologies and the issue of risks to women and embryos: the tip of the iceberg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalline Carvalho Gonçalves Eler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In assisted reproduction, not everything that is technically possible is ethically acceptable or socially desirable. The impact it has on women and embryos needs to be considered. The risk to women involves the ingestion of hormones, which can cause potentially serious complications. As regards embryos, there are risks of prematurity, low birth weight and other diseases. This article advocates a strong protective guardianship for women and the extracorporeal embryo. Faced with new bioethical dilemmas, the essence of the human being is in question. It is therefore the task of all spheres of knowledge to make a distinction between the personalizing and depersonalizing of human beings.

  12. Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zakikhani, Mansour

    2004-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

  13. Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR), Final Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zakikhani, Mansour; Dortch, Mark S; Gerald, Jeffrey A; Hawkins, Melanie S

    2005-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

  14. Low-technology assisted reproduction and the risk of preterm birth in a hospital-based cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messerlian, Carmen; Platt, Robert W; Tan, Seang-Lin; Gagnon, Robert; Basso, Olga

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the risk of preterm birth in singleton infants conceived through low-technology assisted reproduction (intrauterine insemination and/or ovulation induction/stimulation). Hospital-based cohort study. University-affiliated hospital. Singleton babies born between 2001 and 2007 to 16,712 couples with no reported infertility (reference category), 378 babies conceived with low-technology treatment; 437 conceived with high-technology treatment; and 620 conceived naturally after a period of infertility. None. Treatment data were obtained from couples undergoing standard infertility investigation and care. Preterm birth, defined at three clinical endpoints: assisted reproduction appeared to be a moderately strong predictor of preterm birth, with similar associations observed in the high-technology treatment group. After adjusting for confounders, as well as the shared characteristics of infertile couples, associations were attenuated but remained significant, suggesting that part of the risk is likely attributable to the treatment. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk factors for postpartum endometritis and the effect of endometritis on reproductive performance in dairy cows in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ill-Hwa; Kang, Hyun-Gu

    2003-12-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the risk factors for postpartum endometritis by evaluating several reproductive factors in individual cows, and to determine the effect of endometritis on the subsequent reproductive performance in dairy herds in Korea. The data, including health status, parity and body condition score (BCS) of cows, and calving date, were collected from 320 cows in eight dairy herds calving from January 2001 to October 2002. We used logistic regression to evaluate the effects of these factors on endometritis. A stepwise procedure, used to obtain the appropriate model with alpha=0.05, revealed that retained placenta, metabolic disorders and parity are the important risk factors for endometritis. The mean intervals from calving to first service and conception were prolonged (Pconception rate was lower (Pconception was higher (P<0.05) in the endometritis group (1.9) than in the non-endometritis group (1.6). We conclude that retained placenta, metabolic disorders and cow parity are strongly correlated with the development of postpartum endometritis, which decreases reproductive performance in dairy herds in Korea.

  16. E-cigarette use among women of reproductive age: Impulsivity, cigarette smoking status, and other risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chivers, Laura L; Hand, Dennis J; Priest, Jeff S; Higgins, Stephen T

    2016-11-01

    The study aim was to examine impulsivity and other risk factors for e-cigarette use among women of reproductive age comparing current daily cigarette smokers to never cigarette smokers. Women of reproductive age are of special interest because of the additional risk that tobacco and nicotine use represents should they become pregnant. Survey data were collected anonymously online using Amazon Mechanical Turk in 2014. Participants were 800 women ages 24-44years from the US. Half (n=400) reported current, daily smoking and half (n=400) reported smoking e-cigarette use were examined using logistic regression. Daily cigarette smoking was associated with greater impulsivity, lower education, past illegal drug use, and White race/ethnicity. E-cigarette use in the overall sample was associated with being a cigarette smoker and greater education. E-cigarette use among current smokers was associated with increased nicotine dependence and quitting smoking; among never smokers it was associated with greater impulsivity and illegal drug use. E-cigarette use was associated with hookah use, and for never smokers only with use of cigars and other nicotine products. E-cigarette use among women of reproductive age varies by smoking status, with use among current smokers reflecting attempts to quit smoking whereas among non-smokers use may be a marker of a more impulsive repertoire that includes greater use of alternative tobacco products and illegal drugs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Intrauterine exposure to mild analgesics is a risk factor for development of male reproductive disorders in human and rat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, David Møbjerg; Hass, Ulla; Lesné, Laurianne

    2011-01-01

    ; BACKGROUND: More than half of pregnant women in the Western world report intake of mild analgesics, and some of these drugs have been associated with anti-androgenic effects in animal experiments. Intrauterine exposure to anti-androgens is suspected to contribute to the recent increase in male ...... results suggest that intrauterine exposure to mild analgesics is a risk factor for development of male reproductive disorders.......; BACKGROUND: More than half of pregnant women in the Western world report intake of mild analgesics, and some of these drugs have been associated with anti-androgenic effects in animal experiments. Intrauterine exposure to anti-androgens is suspected to contribute to the recent increase in male...... reproductive problems, and many of the anti-androgenic compounds are like the mild analgesics potent inhibitors of prostaglandin synthesis. Therefore, it appears imperative to further investigate the potential endocrine disrupting properties of mild analgesics. ; METHODS: In a prospective birth cohort study...

  18. The future of risk management in an uncertain world

    OpenAIRE

    Coulson-Thomas, Colin

    2017-01-01

    Risk management approaches, practices and techniques need to change to reflect evolving risks and the inter-connected nature of contemporary organisations. Boards need to challenge and question them. The risk management community needs to adopt more pro-active and positive approaches that add more value and enable innovation and entrepreneurship. They need to contribute to solutions rather than just report problems, and focus on opportunities as well as challenges. A wider perspective and mor...

  19. Reproductive Status at First Diagnosis Influences Risk of Radiation-Induced Second Primary Contralateral Breast Cancer in the WECARE Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooks, Jennifer D., E-mail: brooksj@mskcc.org [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States); Boice, John D. [International Epidemiology Institute, Rockville, MD and Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt School of Medicine, Nashville, TN (United States); Stovall, Marilyn [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Reiner, Anne S. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States); Bernstein, Leslie [Division of Cancer Etiology, Department of Population Sciences, Beckman Research Institute and City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center, Duarte, CA (United States); John, Esther M. [Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Fremont, CA, and Stanford University School of Medicine and Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford, CA (United States); Lynch, Charles F. [Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States); Mellemkjaer, Lene [Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen (Denmark); Knight, Julia A. [Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto and Samuel Lunenfeld Research Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Thomas, Duncan C.; Haile, Robert W. [Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Smith, Susan A. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Capanu, Marinela; Bernstein, Jonine L. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States); Shore, Roy E. [Department of Environmental Medicine, New York University, New York, NY (United States); Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: Our study examined whether reproductive and hormonal factors before, at the time of, or after radiation treatment for a first primary breast cancer modify the risk of radiation-induced second primary breast cancer. Methods and Materials: The Women's Environmental, Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study is a multicenter, population-based study of 708 women (cases) with asynchronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and 1399 women (controls) with unilateral breast cancer. Radiotherapy (RT) records, coupled with anthropomorphic phantom simulations, were used to estimate quadrant-specific radiation dose to the contralateral breast for each patient. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed to assess the relationship between reproductive factors and risk of CBC. Results: Women who were nulliparous at diagnosis and exposed to {>=}1 Gy to the contralateral breast had a greater risk for CBC than did matched unexposed nulliparous women (RR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0). No increased risk was seen in RT-exposed parous women (RR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.4). Women treated with RT who later became pregnant (8 cases and 9 controls) had a greater risk for CBC (RR = 6.0; 95% CI, 1.3-28.4) than unexposed women (4 cases and 7 controls) who also became pregnant. The association of radiation with risk of CBC did not vary by number of pregnancies, history of breastfeeding, or menopausal status at the time of first breast cancer diagnosis. Conclusion: Nulliparous women treated with RT were at an increased risk for CBC. Although based on small numbers, women who become pregnant after first diagnosis also seem to be at an increased risk for radiation-induced CBC.

  20. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Linde, A.H.; Bubeck, P.; Dekkers, J.E.C.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2011-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine

  1. Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected ...

  2. Agency Theory, Futures Markets and Risk Shifting in Commodity Marketing Channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuwornu, J.K.M.; Kuiper, W.E.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper applies agency theory to access risk shifting between the principal (marketing firms) and the agent (farmers) in a food marketing channel. It compares the case in which there is a futures market available for the risk-averse agents with the case in which there is no futures trading. The

  3. Associations between noncommunicable disease risk factors, race, education, and health insurance status among women of reproductive age in Brazil - 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mpofu, Jonetta Johnson; de Moura, Lenildo; Farr, Sherry L; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Iser, Betine Moehlecke; Ivata Bernal, Regina Tomie; Robbins, Cheryl L; Lobelo, Felipe

    2016-06-01

    Noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors increase the risk of adverse reproductive health outcomes and are becoming increasingly common in Brazil. We analyzed VIGITEL 2011 telephone survey data for 13,745 Brazilian women aged 18-44 years in a probabilistic sample from 26 Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District. We examined associations between NCD risk factors (fruit and vegetable intake, leisure time physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking status, BMI and hypertension status) and race, education, and insurance using chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression models, estimating the average marginal effects to produce adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRs). Analyses were conducted using SAS 9.3 survey procedures and weighted to reflect population estimates. Women with less than a college education were more likely to report physical inactivity (adjusted relative risk (aRR) and 95% confidence interval = 1.1 (1.1-1.2)), smoking (aRR = 1.7 (1.3-2.2)), and self-reported diagnoses of hypertension (aRR = 2.0 (1.6-2.5)) compared to women with a college education or greater. Similarly, women without health insurance were more likely to report physical inactivity (aRR = 1.1 (1.1-1.2)), smoking (aRR = 1.4 (1.1-1.8)), and self-reported diagnoses of hypertension aRR = 1.4 (1.1-1.7)) compared to women with health insurance. Less variation was found by race and NCD risk factors. Targeted public health strategies and policies are needed to increase healthcare access and decrease educational and racial disparities in NCD risk factors among women of reproductive age in Brazil.

  4. Reproductive function and risk for PCOS in women treated for bipolar disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rasgon, NL; Altshuler, LL; Fairbanks, L; Elman, S; Bitran, J; Labarca, R; Saad, M; Kupka, R; Nolen, WA; Frye, MA; Suppes, T; McElroy, SL; Keck, PE; Leverich, G; Grunze, H; Walden, J; Post, R; Mintz, J

    Introduction: This study examined the reproductive function and prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in women with bipolar disorder taking antimanic medications. Method: Women aged 18-45 treated for bipolar disorder and not taking steroid contraceptives were recruited to complete

  5. Future orientation and suicide risk in Hungarian college students: Burdensomeness and belongingness as mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Edward C; Chang, Olivia D; Martos, Tamás; Sallay, Viola

    2017-01-01

    We tested a model consistent with the notion that perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness mediate the association between future orientation and suicide risk (viz., depressive symptoms and suicide ideation) in college students. The sample was comprised of 195 Hungarian college students. Results indicated that the negative associations found between future orientation and suicide risk outcomes were accounted for by both perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness. The present findings highlight the importance of studying positive future cognitions in suicide risk and provide support for perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness as potential proximal mechanisms associated with heighted suicide risk in adults.

  6. Supply Chain Risk Management: Literature Review and Future Research

    OpenAIRE

    Iwan Vanany; Suhaiza Zailani; Nyoman Pujawan

    2009-01-01

    Supply chain risk management has increasingly becoming a more popular research area recently. Various papers, with different focus and approaches, have been published since a few years ago. This paper aims to survey supply chain risk management (SCRM) literature. Paper published in relevant journals from 2000 to 2007 are analysed and classified into five categories: conceptual, descriptive, empirical, exploratory cross-sectional, and exploratory longitudinal. We also looked at the papers in t...

  7. Issues and future directions of 'introduction of Risk Informed Regulation'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    In 2004, Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (NSC) set up a taskforce for developing a scheme of Risk Informed Regulation (RIR) introduction, which had discussed various aspects of utilization of risk information in nuclear regulations. In the final report compiled in 2007, the taskforce identified the significance of RIR introduction from viewpoint of enhancement of rationality, consistency and transparency as well as appropriate allocation of regulatory resources in the nuclear safety regulation and major issues for the further promotion were as follows: NSC is to maintain the comprehensively promoting function of the RIR introduction with reviewing global trends and latest technological knowledge, regulatory bodies are to further enhance the RIR in inspection and operational area, utilities and industries are to utilize further risk information in their self-maintenance activities and to gather trouble information data, academic societies are to establish the standards for risk evaluation technology and RIR, and research institutes are to carry out safety research and risk training for risk-communicators. This article presented summary of the final report aiming at upgrading safety regulation with enhancement of RIR introduction. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Risk factors and the economic impact of ovarian cysts on reproductive performance of dairy cows in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ki-Doek; Ki, Kwang-Sook; Kang, Hyun-Gu; Kim, Ill-Hwa

    2005-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the risk factors for development of postpartum ovarian cysts by evaluating several reproductive factors in individual cows, and to determine the economic impact of ovarian cysts on subsequent reproductive performance in dairy herds in Korea. The data, including cow parity, abnormal puerperium, endometritis, body condition score (BCS), and breeding status were collected from 634 cows in 9 dairy herds. We used logistic regression to evaluate the effects of these factors on ovarian cysts. A stepwise procedure, used to obtain the appropriate model with alpha=0.05, revealed that cow parity was the most important risk factor for ovarian cyst development within 8 weeks postpartum, while development of endometritis and BCS loss>or=1 from the dry period to 8 weeks postpartum were the most important risk factors for ovarian cyst development beyond 8 weeks postpartum. The occurrence of ovarian cysts beyond 8 weeks postpartum prolonged (Pconception (77 days), and increased (Prate (7.8%), while ovarian cyst development within 8 weeks postpartum did not affect (P>0.05) the mean intervals from calving to first service and conception or the culling rate. The economic loss resulting from the occurrence of ovarian cysts was estimated at approximately 823,996 won ($687) due to effects on the cost of nutrition, average growth of calves, labor and medical costs, and culling. These results suggest that cow parity is correlated with the development of ovarian cysts within 8 weeks postpartum, and endometritis and BCS loss>or=1 from the dry period to 8 weeks postpartum are correlated with the development of ovarian cysts after 8 weeks postpartum, which decreases reproductive performance and results in economic loss in dairy herds in Korea.

  9. Sexual dysfunction among reproductive-aged Chinese married women in Hong Kong: prevalence, risk factors, and associated consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huiping; Fan, Susan; Yip, Paul S F

    2015-03-01

    Although female sexual dysfunction (FSD) is a serious public health issue endangering women's well-being, systematic research on FSD among reproductive-aged Chinese women in Hong Kong is quite scarce. This study aims to estimate the prevalence, risk factors, and associated consequences of FSD among reproductive-aged Chinese married women in Hong Kong. This study was based on a community-based survey across Hong Kong conducted by the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong in 2012 with 1,518 married women aged 21-49 years. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition classification was adopted to assess FSD. It was found that 25.6% of the married women surveyed reported at least one form of sexual dysfunction and that the prevalence of six domains of sexual dysfunction was as follows: 10.6% for lack of interest in sex, 10.5% for not finding sex pleasurable, 9.3% for lubrication difficulties, 8.8% for inability to achieve orgasm, 8.8% for orgasm delay, and 8.4% for physical pain during sex. Multivariate analyses showed that low education and income, average or poor health, lower frequency of sex, abortion history, traditional attitudes toward sex, and marital dissatisfaction are all significant risk factors for different components of FSD. It was also been found that four domains of FSD (the exceptions being orgasm delay and physical pain during sex) have severe consequences for married women's life satisfaction and sexual satisfaction. The prevalence of FSD is lower among reproductive-aged Chinese married women in Hong Kong than among women in the United States and some Asian countries. The risk factors associated with FSD include sociodemographic factors, physical health, sexual experience and attitudes, and relationship factors. FSD has significant consequences for married women's life quality. These findings have great implications for FSD prevention and relevant service delivery. © 2014 International Society for Sexual

  10. A magic bullet for the “African” mother? Neo-Imperial reproductive futurism and the pharmaceutical “solution” to the HIV/AIDS Crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Karen M

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of a close reading of popular and medical texts which address a debate over the ethics of clinical drug trials funded by the United States and designed mainly for sub-Saharan Africa, I argue that international public health discourse about infant HIV infection in that region reflects and legitimates a neo-imperialist, anti-reproductive justice ideology. Participants share a fetal-centered logic that US-funded biomedicine must shoulder the burden of rescuing sub-Saharan Africa from itself by using the bodies of HIV-positive pregnant women to transmit biomedicine's magic bullet—antiretroviral drugs—to the next generation. The survival of the fetus, disguised as the well-being of the HIV-positive woman and accomplished by the magic of biomedical research, becomes the survival of a region otherwise doomed by its present state of economic, political, and medical incapacity. This version of what queer theorist Lee Edelman (2004, No Future: Queer Theory and the Death Drive) calls “reproductive futurism” redounds to the benefit of the more explicitly women-hating and nationalist ideologies of still-powerful right-wing movements against reproductive and sexual rights.

  11. Evolutionary morphology of the male reproductive system, spermatozoa and seminal fluid of spiders (Araneae, Arachnida)--current knowledge and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Peter; Ramírez, Martín J

    2014-07-01

    The male reproductive system and spermatozoa of spiders are known for their high structural diversity. Spider spermatozoa are flagellate and males transfer them to females in a coiled and encapsulated state using their modified pedipalps. Here, we provide a detailed overview of the present state of knowledge of the primary male reproductive system, sperm morphology and the structural diversity of seminal fluids with a focus on functional and evolutionary implications. Secondly, we conceptualized characters for the male genital system, spermiogenesis and spermatozoa for the first time based on published and new data. In total, we scored 40 characters for 129 species from 56 families representing all main spider clades. We obtained synapomorphies for several taxa including Opisthothelae, Araneomorphae, Dysderoidea, Scytodoidea, Telemidae, Linyphioidea, Mimetidae, Synotaxidae and the Divided Cribellum Clade. Furthermore, we recovered synspermia as a synapomorphy for ecribellate Haplogynae and thus propose Synspermiata as new name for this clade. We hope that these data will not only contribute to future phylogenetic studies but will also stimulate much needed evolutionary studies of reproductive systems in spiders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Perception of risk and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, P.

    1993-01-01

    Public support for nuclear power has declined greatly, driven by a number of powerful forces and events. Numerous studies have demonstrated the public's extreme perceptions of risk and negative attitudes regarding nuclear power. This negativity is remarkable in light of the confidence most technical analysts have regarding the safety of this technology. Public fears and opposition to nuclear power can be seen as a crisis in confidence, a profound breakdown in trust in the scientific, governmental, and industrial managers of nuclear technologies. The problem is not due to public ignorance or irrationality, but is deeply rooted in individual psychology and the adversarial nature of our social, institutional, legal, and political systems of risk management. In the absence of revolutionary changes in the ways that risks are managed in our society, it is unlikely that public trust, confidence, and acceptance of nuclear power can be regained

  13. Differences in reproductive risk factors for breast cancer in middle-aged women in Marin County, California and a sociodemographically similar area of Northern California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uratsu Connie S

    2009-03-01

    The effects of reproductive risks factors, Ashkenazi Jewish heritage, smoking history, and alcohol consumption with regard to breast cancer risk in Marin County should be further evaluated. When possible, future comparisons of breast cancer incidence rates between regions should adjust for differences in income and education in addition to age and race/ethnicity, preferably by using a sociodemographically similar comparison group.

  14. Applied risk analysis to the future Brazilian electricity generation matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maues, Jair; Fernandez, Eloi; Correa, Antonio

    2010-09-15

    This study compares energy conversion systems for the generation of electrical power, with an emphasis on the Brazilian energy matrix. The financial model applied in this comparison is based on the Portfolio Theory, developed by Harry Markowitz. The risk-return ratio related to the electrical generation mix predicted in the National Energy Plan - 2030, published in 2006 by the Brazilian Energy Research Office, is evaluated. The increase of non-traditional renewable energy in this expected electrical generating mix, specifically, residues of sugar cane plantations and wind energy, reduce not only the risk but also the average cost of the kilowatt-hour generated.

  15. PREPARING FUTURE TEACHERS TO RISK WARNING IN PEDAGOGICAL ACTIVITIES

    OpenAIRE

    Maryna Butyrina

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the article is to identify the peculiarities of professional activities for teachers’ physical and mental health; to implement comprehensive analysis of the negative impact on teaching profession; to disclose accidents and mental destruction of future teachers’ individuals. The professional health is an integral characteristic of functional state of human mental and physical indicators to assess his/her abilities to a certain professional activities and practice of a given durat...

  16. A not-so-grim tale: how childhood family structure influences reproductive and risk-taking outcomes in a historical U.S. Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Paula; Garcia, Justin R; Sear, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Childhood family structure has been shown to play an important role in shaping a child's life course development, especially in industrialised societies. One hypothesis which could explain such findings is that parental investment is likely to be diluted in families without both natural parents. Most empirical studies have examined the influence of only one type of family disruption or composition (e.g. father absence) making it difficult to simultaneously compare the effects of different kinds of family structure on children's future outcomes. Here we use a large, rich data source (n=16,207) collected by Alfred Kinsey and colleagues in the United States from 1938 to 1963, to examine the effects of particular childhood family compositions and compare between them. The dataset further allows us to look at the effects of family structure on an array of traits relating to sexual maturity, reproduction, and risk-taking. Our results show that, for both sexes, living with a single mother or mother and stepfather during childhood was often associated with faster progression to life history events and greater propensity for risk-taking behaviours. However, living with a single father or father and stepmother was typically not significantly different to having both natural parents for these outcomes. Our results withstand adjustment for socioeconomic status, age, ethnicity, age at puberty (where applicable), and sibling configuration. While these results support the hypothesis that early family environment influences subsequent reproductive strategy, the different responses to the presence or absence of different parental figures in the household rearing environment suggests that particular family constructions exert independent influences on childhood outcomes. Our results suggest that father-absent households (i.e. single mothers or mothers and stepfathers) are most highly associated with subsequent fast life history progressions, compared with mother-absent households

  17. A not-so-grim tale: how childhood family structure influences reproductive and risk-taking outcomes in a historical U.S. Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Sheppard

    Full Text Available Childhood family structure has been shown to play an important role in shaping a child's life course development, especially in industrialised societies. One hypothesis which could explain such findings is that parental investment is likely to be diluted in families without both natural parents. Most empirical studies have examined the influence of only one type of family disruption or composition (e.g. father absence making it difficult to simultaneously compare the effects of different kinds of family structure on children's future outcomes. Here we use a large, rich data source (n=16,207 collected by Alfred Kinsey and colleagues in the United States from 1938 to 1963, to examine the effects of particular childhood family compositions and compare between them. The dataset further allows us to look at the effects of family structure on an array of traits relating to sexual maturity, reproduction, and risk-taking. Our results show that, for both sexes, living with a single mother or mother and stepfather during childhood was often associated with faster progression to life history events and greater propensity for risk-taking behaviours. However, living with a single father or father and stepmother was typically not significantly different to having both natural parents for these outcomes. Our results withstand adjustment for socioeconomic status, age, ethnicity, age at puberty (where applicable, and sibling configuration. While these results support the hypothesis that early family environment influences subsequent reproductive strategy, the different responses to the presence or absence of different parental figures in the household rearing environment suggests that particular family constructions exert independent influences on childhood outcomes. Our results suggest that father-absent households (i.e. single mothers or mothers and stepfathers are most highly associated with subsequent fast life history progressions, compared with mother

  18. Relationships Between Future Orientation, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and Risk Behavior Among Adjudicated Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Reuben N.; Bryan, Angela

    2004-01-01

    Because of high levels of risk behavior, adjudicated adolescents are at high risk for negative health outcomes such as nicotine and drug addiction and sexually transmitted diseases. The goal of this article is to examine relationships between future orientation and impulsive-sensation-seeking personality constructs to risk behaviors among 300…

  19. Tritium : health risks, regulatory issues and the nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambers, D. B.; Garva, A.

    2010-10-01

    The refurbishment of existing reactors and proposed new build reactors in Canada has resulted in increased public opposition to nuclear power. This opposition has been fuelled by information provided to local groups by highly motivated national and international anti-nuclear groups who foster overstated and often incorrect views on the risks of low doses of radiation. Over the past several years, there has been increased scientific and public interest in the risks of low exposures to tritium. Scientific aspects which have received considerable attention include amongst others, behaviour in the environment, the possibility of increasing the relative biological effectiveness for tritium, the importance of organically bound tritium, and tritium dosimetry. In Canada at least, the perception of harm from exposures to low levels of tritium has been enhanced in the public mind by a proposal in one Province to lower the drinking water standard for tritium from 7,000 Bq/L to 20 Bq/L, which certain non-governmental organizations use to suggest the risks have been greatly underestimated in the past. Actually regulatory environment, the approval of local public of often a requirement for licensing a nuclear facility and thus it is important to ensure that correct information is not only available but available in a technically correct but easily understood form. This paper reviews the currently available scientific information on the risks from exposure to tritium and provides a context of the implications for regulatory actions and communications with the public. (Author)

  20. Menstrual and reproductive factors and type 2 diabetes risk: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanri, Akiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Goto, Atsushi; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2018-04-18

    Menstrual and reproductive factors, including age at menarche, parity, and breastfeeding, have been linked to type 2 diabetes risk. We prospectively investigated the association between these factors and type 2 diabetes risk in a large Japanese cohort. Participants were 37,511 women aged 45-75 years who participated in the baseline (1990-1993), second (1995-1998), and third surveys (2000-2003) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study and who had no history of diabetes at the second survey. Menstrual and reproductive history was ascertained using questionnaires at the baseline and second surveys. Odds ratios of self-reported, physician-diagnosed type 2 diabetes over the 5-year period from the second survey were estimated using logistic regression. At the third survey, 513 new cases of type 2 diabetes were self-reported. The odds ratios of type 2 diabetes tended to increase with the number of parity, after adjustment for covariates other than body mass index (P for trend = 0.029). The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of type 2 diabetes for women with ≥3 births was 1.56 (0.96-2.53) compared to those who were nulliparous. The association between parity and type 2 diabetes risk was attenuated after additional adjustment for body mass index (P for trend = 0.12). No factors other than parity were significantly associated with type 2 diabetes risk. Higher parity may be associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes among Japanese women, partly through increasing body weight. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. Future Forests. Sustainable Strategies under Uncertainty and Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    Climate change, globalization, and increased consumption of materials and energy leads to higher pressure on forest resources. The task of intensifying forestry to produce more timber, paper, and energy, while at the same time ensuring ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and recreation, is a complex one. Difficult decisions have to be made if we are to strike a balance between these demands. These decisions have to be supported by scientifically-based land-use strategies to deal with tradeoffs on different scales. The vision of Future Forests is to take a significant step forward in this complicated task. The Program has a long-term perspective (50-100 years) and will consider changes in climate, as well as global and market development as major factors likely to have a strong influence on forest management and forest landscapes in the future. In this context, uncertainties, vulnerability, and the adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems must also be considered. The Program's promise to society is: Future Forests will create knowledge and tools to enable sustainable decisions for the future of one of our most important resources - our forests. To fulfill this promise, the Program has the ambition to constitute a platform where researchers from different disciplines, and practitioners from several sectors, can interact. The program will combine empirical research with modeling, scenario analysis, and synthesis work in order to produce excellent science and applications. Much of the multidisciplinary research performed in the Program will be done in the Component Projects. These research groups will be responsible for producing detailed, high quality scientific results that can both be incorporated into the scenarios and be directly relevant for our stakeholders. The Center for Forest System Analyses and Synthesis (ForSA) will form a unifying force in Future Forests. The main goal for this center is to develop skills in scenario analyses and to

  2. Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Future Cardiovascular Risk: An Update

    OpenAIRE

    Burlina, S.; Dalfr?, M. G.; Chilelli, N. C.; Lapolla, A.

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus is increasing in parallel with the rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity around the world. Current evidence strongly suggests that women who have had gestational diabetes mellitus are at greater risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. Given the growing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus, it is important to identify appropriate reliable markers of cardiovascular disease and specific treatment strategies capable of contai...

  3. Supply chain risk management: outlining an agenda for future research.

    OpenAIRE

    Jüttner, Uta; Peck, Helen; Christopher, Martin

    2003-01-01

    In recent years the issue of supply chain risk has been pushed to the fore, initially by fears related to possible disruptions from the much publicised ‘millennium bug’. Y2K passed seemingly without incident, though the widespread disruptions caused by fuel protests and then Foot and Mouth Disease in the UK, and by terrorist attacks on the USA have underlined the vulnerability of modern supply chains. Despite increasing awareness among practitioners, the concepts of supply chain vulnerabi...

  4. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  5. Mercury and selenium contamination in waterbird eggs and risk to avian reproduction at Great Salt Lake, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Joshua T.; Herzog, Mark P.; Hartman, Christopher A.; Isanhart, John P.; Herring, Garth; Vaughn, Sharon; Cavitt, John F.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Browers, Howard; Cline, Chris; Vest, Josh

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands of the Great Salt Lake ecosystem are recognized regionally, nationally, and hemispherically for their importance as breeding, wintering, and migratory habitat for diverse groups of waterbirds. Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge is the largest freshwater component of the Great Salt Lake ecosystem and provides critical breeding habitat for more than 60 bird species. However, the Great Salt Lake ecosystem also has a history of both mercury and selenium contamination, and this pollution could reduce the health and reproductive success of waterbirds. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of mercury and selenium contamination to birds breeding within Great Salt Lake, especially at Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge, and to identify the waterbird species and areas at greatest risk to contamination. We sampled eggs from 33 species of birds breeding within wetlands of Great Salt Lake during 2010 ̶ 2012 and focused on American avocets (Recurvirostra americana), black-necked stilts (Himantopus mexicanus), Forster’s terns (Sterna forsteri), white-faced ibis (Plegadis chihi), and marsh wrens (Cistothorus palustris) for additional studies of the effects of contaminants on reproduction.

  6. Birth defects and congenital health risks in children conceived through assisted reproduction technology (ART): a meeting report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Assisted Reproduction Treatment (ART) is here to stay. This review addresses the parental background of birth defects, before, during and after conception and focuses both on the underlying subfertility and on the question whether ART as a treatment is an additional contributing factor. Searches were performed in Medline and other databases. Summaries were discussed in a Delphi panel set-up by the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE). Several birth defects and adult diseases arise during the earliest stages of ovarian development and oocyte differentiation: this is the case of cleft palate disorders in offspring from female rat exposed to Dioxin during fetal life or the polycystic ovary diseases in female offspring (primates) exposed to elevated androgen concentration during fetal life. Human oocytes and embryos often fail to stop the propagation of aneuploid cells but maintain their ability to repair DNA damages including those introduced by the fertilizing sperm. There is a 29 % increased risk of birth defects in the newborns spontaneously conceived by subfertile couples and the risk is further increased (34 %) when conception is achieved by treating infertlity with ART (Danish IVF Registry). Periconceptional conditions are critical for ART babies: their birth weight is in general smaller (Norvegian Registry) but a more prolonged culture time doubled the number of large babies (Finnish Registry). The long-term developmental effects of ART on child and subsequent health as an adult remains a subject worthy of futher monitoring and investigation.

  7. Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Future Cardiovascular Risk: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Burlina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus is increasing in parallel with the rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity around the world. Current evidence strongly suggests that women who have had gestational diabetes mellitus are at greater risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. Given the growing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus, it is important to identify appropriate reliable markers of cardiovascular disease and specific treatment strategies capable of containing obesity, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome in order to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in the women affected.

  8. Newborn infant characteristics and risk of future rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Anders J; Kyvik, Kirsten O; Houen, Gunnar

    2014-01-01

    Low birth weight has been proposed as a risk factor for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The twin-control study design provides an opportunity to investigate the significance of potential prenatal determinants for adult morbidity by accounting for maternal characteristics and early environmental...... for developing RA as first born twin was 2.33 (95 % CI 0.97-5.60) when adjusting for birth length, birth weight, and sex, irrespective of ACPA status. In this twin-control study, birth weight was not associated with the development of RA in adult life. Being born first may predispose to RA....

  9. Successful survival, growth, and reproductive potential of quagga mussels in low calcium lake water: is there uncertainty of establishment risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clinton J. Davis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The risk of quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis Andrusov 1897 establishment into water-bodies of the western US has expanded the geographic concern regarding the ecological and economic impacts this species will have in aquatic ecosystems. Thresholds based on calcium concentrations, an element critical for mussel growth and physiology, have been used as a primary predictor of quagga mussel establishment success to aid management decisions. We evaluated the invasion potential of quagga mussels in low calcium waters using laboratory experiments to compare the survival, growth and reproductive potential of adult mussels held for 90 days at low (9 and 12 ppm, moderate (15 to 32 ppm and high (72 ppm calcium water concentrations. In conjunction with adult experiments, veliger stage survival, growth and settlement were evaluated under similar low, moderate, and high calcium water treatments. Adult mussels survived, grew and showed reproductive potential in low calcium water (12 ppm. Veligers were also able to survive, grow and settle in low calcium water. Higher levels of natural seston biomass appeared to improve adult mussel life history performance in low calcium water. Survival curve analysis predicted that 99% adult mortality could occur in 15 ppm could have adults surviving more than a year. The results from these bioassays provide further evidence that quagga mussels have higher risk of establishment in low calcium lakes if habitats exist that have slightly elevated calcium. These results should help emphasize the vulnerability of water-body in the 12 to 15 ppm calcium range that could potentially be at risk of establishing sustainable quagga mussel populations. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the uncertainty of using a single parameter in assigning establishment risk given the complexity of variables in specific water-bodies that influence life history performance of introduced species.

  10. Successful survival, growth, and reproductive potential of quagga mussels in low calcium lake water: is there uncertainty of establishment risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Clinton J; Ruhmann, Emma K; Acharya, Kumud; Chandra, Sudeep; Jerde, Christopher L

    2015-01-01

    The risk of quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis Andrusov 1897) establishment into water-bodies of the western US has expanded the geographic concern regarding the ecological and economic impacts this species will have in aquatic ecosystems. Thresholds based on calcium concentrations, an element critical for mussel growth and physiology, have been used as a primary predictor of quagga mussel establishment success to aid management decisions. We evaluated the invasion potential of quagga mussels in low calcium waters using laboratory experiments to compare the survival, growth and reproductive potential of adult mussels held for 90 days at low (9 and 12 ppm), moderate (15 to 32 ppm) and high (72 ppm) calcium water concentrations. In conjunction with adult experiments, veliger stage survival, growth and settlement were evaluated under similar low, moderate, and high calcium water treatments. Adult mussels survived, grew and showed reproductive potential in low calcium water (12 ppm). Veligers were also able to survive, grow and settle in low calcium water. Higher levels of natural seston biomass appeared to improve adult mussel life history performance in low calcium water. Survival curve analysis predicted that 99% adult mortality could occur in 15 ppm could have adults surviving more than a year. The results from these bioassays provide further evidence that quagga mussels have higher risk of establishment in low calcium lakes if habitats exist that have slightly elevated calcium. These results should help emphasize the vulnerability of water-body in the 12 to 15 ppm calcium range that could potentially be at risk of establishing sustainable quagga mussel populations. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the uncertainty of using a single parameter in assigning establishment risk given the complexity of variables in specific water-bodies that influence life history performance of introduced species.

  11. Environmental risks and future generations: Criteria for public policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.

    1992-10-01

    This paper examines alternative normative approaches to the policy challenges posed by long-term environmental problems such as toxic and radioactive waste disposal, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. The paper argues that cost-benefit analysis is limited in its ability to handle the issues of intergenerational equity and uncertainty that are intrinsic to such problems. Also considered is the precautionary principle, which holds that policies should seek to reduce threats to the welfare of future generations if the costs of doing so would not significantly reduce the subjective well-being of existing persons. Although the precautionary principle depends on an explicit value judgement, it yields a policy criterion that is operationally decisive under a wide array of circumstances.

  12. How endangered is sexual reproduction of high-mountain plants by summer frosts? Frost resistance, frequency of frost events and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladinig, Ursula; Hacker, Jürgen; Neuner, Gilbert; Wagner, Johanna

    2013-03-01

    In temperate-zone mountains, summer frosts usually occur during unpredictable cold spells with snow-falls. Earlier studies have shown that vegetative aboveground organs of most high-mountain plants tolerate extracellular ice in the active state. However, little is known about the impact of frost on reproductive development and reproductive success. In common plant species from the European Alps (Cerastium uniflorum, Loiseleuria procumbens, Ranunculus glacialis, Rhododendron ferrugineum, Saxifraga bryoides, S. moschata, S. caesia), differing in growth form, altitudinal distribution and phenology, frost resistance of reproductive and vegetative shoots was assessed in different reproductive stages. Intact plants were exposed to simulated night frosts between -2 and -14 °C in temperature-controlled freezers. Nucleation temperatures, freezing damage and subsequent reproductive success (fruit and seed set, seed germination) were determined. During all reproductive stages, reproductive shoots were significantly less frost resistant than vegetative shoots (mean difference for LT50 -4.2 ± 2.7 K). In most species, reproductive shoots were ice tolerant before bolting and during fruiting (mean LT50 -7 and -5.7 °C), but were ice sensitive during bolting and anthesis (mean LT50 around -4 °C). Only R. glacialis remained ice tolerant during all reproductive stages. Frost injury in reproductive shoots usually led to full fruit loss. Reproductive success of frost-treated but undamaged shoots did not differ significantly from control values. Assessing the frost damage risk on the basis of summer frost frequency and frost resistance shows that, in the alpine zone, low-statured species are rarely endangered as long as they are protected by snow. The situation is different in the subnival and nival zone, where frost-sensitive reproductive shoots may become frost damaged even when covered by snow. Unprotected individuals are at high risk of suffering from frost damage, particularly

  13. NCI, NHLBI/PBMTC First International Conference on Late Effects after Pediatric Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: Endocrine Challenges--Thyroid Dysfunction, Growth Impairment, Bone Health, & Reproductive Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvorak, Christopher C.; Gracia, Clarisa R.; Sanders, Jean E.; Cheng, Edward Y.; Baker, K. Scott; Pulsipher, Michael A.; Petryk, Anna

    2011-01-01

    The endocrine system is highly susceptible to damage by high-dose chemotherapy and/or irradiation prior to hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) during childhood. The specific endocrine organs most affected by HCT include the thyroid gland, the pituitary, and the gonads. In addition, hormones that support development and stability of the skeletal system are also affected. Insufficiency of thyroid hormone is one of the most common late sequelae of HCT, and occurs more often in young children. Deficiency in the pituitary’s production of growth hormone is a problem of unique concern to the pediatric population. The reproductive risks of HCT depend on the patient’s gender and pubertal status at the time of HCT. Pubertal or gonadal failure frequently occurs, especially in females. Infertility risks for both genders remain high, while methods of fertility preservation are limited in all but post-pubertal males. Bone health post-HCT can be compromised by low bone mineral density as well as avascular necrosis, but the data on both problems in the pediatric HCT population are limited. In this paper, the current state of knowledge, gaps in that knowledge, and recommendations for future research are addressed in detail for each of these systems. PMID:22005649

  14. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

  15. Reproductive and Hormonal Risk Factors for Breast Cancer in Blind Women

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lockley, Steven W

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological observations indicate that breast cancer risk is lower in visually impaired women compared to sighted women and that the risk is inversely correlated with degree of visual impairment...

  16. The dynamics of risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mork, E. [Consultant, Oslo (Norway)

    2006-04-15

    Premiums in futures prices are usually considered through the use of 2 models: a no-arbitrage model; and the equilibrium approach or theory of normal backwardation. The no-arbitrage approach equates futures prices with spot prices, storage costs and convenience yields, and is difficult to apply to electricity markets. This paper investigated future electricity prices in Nord Pool's futures market using an equilibrium approach, which split futures prices into an expected spot price component and a risk premium component. Three main hypotheses were used: (1) that risk premiums were present in the Nord Pool futures market during the period 1997-2004; that risk premiums in the Nord Pool futures market were smaller or absent during the period of 2000 to 2002; and, that there was a significant change in risk premiums in Nord Pool's futures market after the winter of 2002-2003 due to a change in consumer hedging behaviour. Futures prices were compared to realized spot prices in their delivery periods in order to test the hypotheses. In order to estimate the futures premiums, a 1-sample test was performed on the entire period for 1, 30, 60, and 90 days before delivery of the block or month contract. The test employed the null hypothesis that the futures premiums were 0. Premiums were positive and varied between 3.7 per cent and 9.3 per cent. The purpose of the study was to determine whether risk premiums were present. Results showed that risk premiums varied over time. Two additional hypotheses were then investigated to examine whether the presence of outside speculators reduced risk premiums, and to see if a period of high prices and volatility caused more buyers to hedge in the futures market. Results showed that in the face of volatility and higher prices, consumers do not purchase fixed-price contracts which would ultimately increase futures premiums in the market. It was concluded that premiums are an important element in the pricing of Nord Pool futures and

  17. Ethnomedical research and review of Q'eqchi Maya women's reproductive health in the Lake Izabal region of Guatemala: Past, present and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Joanna L; Caceres, Armando; Mahady, Gail B

    2016-02-03

    In Central America, most Maya women use ethnomedicines for all aspects of their reproductive cycle including menstruation, pregnancy and menopause. However, very few of these plants have been documented, collected and tested in appropriate pharmacological assays to determine possible safety and efficacy. The aim of this work was to provide an overview of information on the ethnomedical uses, ethnopharmacology, chemistry and pharmacological research for medicinal plants used for women's reproductive health in Guatemala, with a special emphasis on the Q'eqchi Maya of the Lake Izabal region, to demonstrate therapeutic potential and support future research in the field. Reviews of the ethnobotanical, ethnomedical and ethnopharmacological literature were performed for 30 plants collected in the Lake Izabal region of Guatemala and used by the Q'eqchi Maya for treatment of reproductive health issues were performed up to and including July 2015 using multiple databases, library searches for abstracts, books, dissertations, and websites. Review of the published research confirms that many of the plants used by Q'eqchi Maya women for the management of reproductive health issues have pharmacological activities, including analgesic, anti-inflammatory, estrogenic, progestagenic and/or serotonergic effects, that support the use of these plants and provide plausible mechanisms of action for their traditional uses. Furthermore, a new serotonin agonist, 9, 10-methylenedioxy-5, 6-Z-fadyenolide was isolated, thereby demonstrating an untapped potential for drug discovery. However, to date much of the pharmacological assays have been in vitro only, and few in vivo studies have been performed. Considering the large percentage of the Maya population in Guatemala that use traditional medicines, there remains a significant lack of pharmacological and toxicological data for these plants. Future research should focus on the safety and efficacy of medicinal plants using in vivo preclinical

  18. Cybersecurity Futures: How Can We Regulate Emergent Risks?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Dupont

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This article reviews nine socio-technical trends that are likely to shape the cybersecurity environment over the next decade. These nine trends have reached various levels of maturity, and some – such as quantum computing – are still theoretically contentious. These trends are: cloud computing; big data; the Internet of Things; the mobile Internet; brain–computer interfaces; near field communication payment systems; mobile robots; quantum computing; and the militarization of the Internet. What these nine trends have in common is that they will be instrumental in generating new opportunities for offending, which will result from an exponential increase in the quantity of data, number of connection points to the Internet, and velocity of data flows that irrigate the digital ecosystem. As a result, more opportunities for malicious exploitation will be available to attackers, “security by design” will be harder to achieve in such a fluid and dynamic environment, and the performance of control mechanisms is likely to erode significantly. Technical solutions to address these challenges are already being developed by computer scientists. This article focuses on a different and complementary approach, finding inspiration in the work of regulatory scholars who have framed promising theories such as regulatory pluralism and responsive regulation to explore options for the necessary institutional adaptation to these future changes.

  19. Future perspectives of nutrigenomics foods: benefits vs. risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Dilip

    2009-02-01

    Nutrigenomics, defined as the application of high-throughput genomics tools in nutrition research is now past its incubation phase. The poorly understood associations of diet and disease prevention in particular will likely be the single most important catalyst to its accelerated and continued growth. Whether the goal of matching foods to individual genotypes to improve the health of those individuals can be attained, and personalised nutrigenomic foods enter the world's food markets, depends on numerous hurdles being overcome: some scientific in nature, some' technical and others related to consumer, market or ethical issues. Public adoption of new technologies is an important determinant for their success. Many of the drivers behind the trend in personalisation of food are now known, particularly ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) are the major drivers. Future development in the field of nutrigenomics undoubtedly will place its seemingly huge potential in better perspective. From the scientific responsibility point of view, one hopes that the new perspectives to be gained and progress to be made in this field will be so managed as to take the public at large on board, if we are to avoid another nutrition education disaster of the genetically modified organism type and dimension.

  20. Risk factors for infection of sow herds with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Sten; Stryhn, Henrik; Søgaard, Rikke

    2002-01-01

    In 1992, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) of European type (PRRSV-EU) was introduced in Denmark. By 1996, the virus had spread to approximately 25% of the Danish herds. In January 1996, a modified-live vaccine based on the American type of the virus (PRRSV-US) was u......In 1992, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) of European type (PRRSV-EU) was introduced in Denmark. By 1996, the virus had spread to approximately 25% of the Danish herds. In January 1996, a modified-live vaccine based on the American type of the virus (PRRSV......-US) was used in replacement boars for Danish artificial insemination (AI) centres and from July 1996, the vaccine was used in PRRSV-EU infected herds for prevention of disease. Soon after vaccine introduction, PRRSV non-infected herds experienced outbreaks of disease due to infection with PRRSV...... in the case herds). The data were analysed using a Cox-regression model. The hazard of infection increased significantly with exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbouring herds, purchase of animals from herds incubating PRRSV-US infection, increasing herd size and purchase of semen from boars at PRRSV...

  1. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  2. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  3. Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

  4. Does oocyte banking for anticipated gamete exhaustion influence future relational and reproductive choices? A follow-up of bankers and non-bankers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoop, D; Maes, E; Polyzos, N P; Verheyen, G; Tournaye, H; Nekkebroeck, J

    2015-02-01

    What is the nature of the relational status, reproductive choices and possible regret of a pioneer cohort of women that either considered or actually performed oocyte banking for anticipated gamete exhaustion (AGE)? Only half of the women who banked oocytes anticipate using them in the future but the experience with oocyte banking is overwhelmingly positive, with the majority of AGE bankers preferring to have it performed at a younger age. Most women who choose to cryopreserve oocytes for the prevention of age-related fertility decline are single and are hoping to buy time in their search for a suitable partner. The question of why some candidates actually embark on such treatment while others eventually prefer not to freeze remains unclear. There are no follow-up data available either on post-freezing changes in relational status, or on attitude towards the undergone treatment and the reproductive outcome. A retrospective cohort study was performed with 140 women who visited the outpatient clinic between 2009 and 2011. All women (mean age 36.7 ± SD 2.62) considered oocyte preservation for age-related infertility. At least 1 year after their initial visit (range 12-45 months), women were contacted by phone to participate in a standardized questionnaire developed to evaluate their actual relational and reproductive situation, their attitude towards banking and future reproductive plan. Eighty-six women (61.4%) completed at least one cryopreservation cycle. The non-bankers included 54 women who either preferred no treatment (n = 51) or attempted stimulation but cancelled because of poor response (n = 3). The response rate among bankers was 75.4% (65/86) while 55.8% (29/52) of the non-bankers were reached for interview. Among bankers, 50.8% of women think they will use the oocytes at some point, while 29.2% indicated that they currently consider the use of frozen oocytes less likely than anticipated at time of oocyte retrieval. However, although 95.4% would decide to

  5. Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmboe, Stine A; Skakkebæk, Niels E; Juul, Anders; Scheike, Thomas; Jensen, Tina K; Linneberg, Allan; Thuesen, Betina H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2018-01-01

    Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (TS) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in TS are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra-individual changes in serum levels of total TS, SHBG, free TS and LH during a ten-year period with up to 18 years of registry follow-up. 1167 men aged 30-60 years participating in the Danish Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA1) study and who had a follow-up examination ten years later (MONICA10) were included. From MONICA10, the men were followed up to 18 years (mean: 15.2 years) based on the information from national mortality registries via their unique personal ID numbers. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the association between intra-individual hormone changes and all-cause, CVD and cancer mortalities. A total of 421 men (36.1%) died during the follow-up period. Men with most pronounced decline in total TS (mortality risk compared to men within the 10th to 90th percentile (hazard ratio (HR): 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-2.36). No consistent associations were seen in cause-specific mortality analyses. Our study showed that higher mortality rates were seen among the men who had the most pronounced age-related decline in TS, independent of their baseline TS levels. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

  6. Big data for risk analysis: The future of safe railways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueres Esteban, M.

    2016-07-01

    New technology brings ever more data to support decision-making for intelligent transport systems. Big Data is no longer a futuristic challenge, it is happening right now: modern railway systems have countless sources of data providing a massive quantity of diverse information on every aspect of operations such as train position and speed, brake applications, passenger numbers, status of the signaling system or reported incidents.The traditional approaches to safety management on the railways have relied on static data sources to populate traditional safety tools such as bow-tie models and fault trees. The Big Data Risk Analysis (BDRA) program for Railways at the University of Huddersfield is investigating how the many Big Data sources from the railway can be combined in a meaningful way to provide a better understanding about the GB railway systems and the environment within which they operate.Moving to BDRA is not simply a matter of scaling-up existing analysis techniques. BDRA has to coordinate and combine a wide range of sources with different types of data and accuracy, and that is not straight-forward. BDRA is structured around three components: data, ontology and visualisation. Each of these components is critical to support the overall framework. This paper describes how these three components are used to get safety knowledge from two data sources by means of ontologies from text documents. This is a part of the ongoing BDRA research that is looking at integrating many large and varied data sources to support railway safety and decision-makers. (Author)

  7. DOES RURAL-TO-URBAN MIGRATION PLACE ADOLESCENTS AT RISK OF DELETERIOUS SEXUAL AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH OUTCOMES? EVIDENCE FROM HAITI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckert, Jessica

    2016-11-01

    This study examines the links between migration and sexual and reproductive health among rural-to-urban migrant youth in Haiti. It evaluates behavioural, knowledge and attitudinal components from the perspective of three competing explanations for migrants' behaviours: adaptation, disruption and selection. Discrete-time event history analysis is employed to compare these hypotheses using Haiti Demographic and Health Survey data (N=1215 adolescent girls, N=829 adolescent boys). Multi-level models are used to compare changes in knowledge and attitudes in individuals using data from the Haiti Youth Transitions Study (N=223). The findings reveal that disruption is the most plausible explanation for the timing of migration and first sex among girls. However, contrary to the assumption that migrant youth risk experiencing first sex earlier, girls are less likely to experience first sex near the time they migrate, and rural-to-urban migrant boys may experience first sex at later ages. The high aspirations of migrant youth provide a likely explanation for these findings. Furthermore, male migrants accumulate less protective knowledge, which is consistent with the disruption hypothesis, and migrants endorse premarital sex similarly to non-migrants. Sexual and reproductive health curricula should be adapted to the unique needs of migrant youth, and youth should be targeted before they migrate.

  8. Protective and risk factors associated with adolescent sexual and reproductive health in the English-speaking Caribbean: a literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilgrim, Nanlesta A; Blum, Robert Wm

    2012-01-01

    To identify risk and protective factors associated with adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) in the English-speaking Caribbean through a structured literature review. Peer-reviewed articles published between January 1998 and December 2009 focused on the sexual and reproductive health of adolescents, aged 10-19 years, were included in this review. Articles were organized according to Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory. Research gaps were also identified. A total of 30 studies assessed ASRH. At the individual level, gender, psychosocial well-being, and mental health were key factors associated with ASRH. Within the microsystem, the quality of the parent-adolescent relationship, the presence of violence, substance abuse or mental health problems in the family, and peer relationships were important determinants of ASRH. Within the macrosystem, cultural attitudes had an effect on youth's sexual behavior and generally, safer sex practices appear to be increasing. Within the chronosystem, a history of physical and sexual abuse was associated with several ASRH outcomes. A research agenda that incorporates a multisystem approach and advocates for the inclusion of socially marginalized youth is needed to fully understand and adequately address ASRH in the Caribbean. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Progeny Density and Nest Availability Affect Parasitism Risk and Reproduction in a Solitary Bee (Osmia lignaria) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farzan, Shahla

    2018-02-08

    Gregarious nesting behavior occurs in a broad diversity of solitary bees and wasps. Despite the prevalence of aggregative nesting, the underlying drivers and fitness consequences of this behavior remain unclear. I investigated the effect of two key characteristics of nesting aggregations (cavity availability and progeny density) on reproduction and brood parasitism rates in the blue orchard bee (Osmia lignaria Say) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), a solitary species that nests gregariously and appears to be attracted to nesting conspecifics. To do so, I experimentally manipulated nest cavity availability in a region of northern Utah with naturally occurring populations of O. lignaria. Nest cavity availability had a negative effect on cuckoo bee (Stelis montana Cresson) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) parasitism rates, with lower parasitism rates occurring in nest blocks with more available cavities. For both S. montana and the cleptoparasitic blister beetle Tricrania stansburyi Haldeman (Coleoptera: Meloidae), brood parasitism rate was negatively correlated with log-transformed O. lignaria progeny density. Finally, cavity availability had a positive effect on male O. lignaria body weight, with the heaviest male progeny produced in nest blocks with the most cavities. These results suggest that cavity availability and progeny density can have substantial effects on brood parasitism risk and reproduction in this solitary bee species. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  11. Testing ‘cultural reproduction theory’ against relative risk aversion theory – some remarks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Martin David; Jakobsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    of the concept of habitus. Our point is that blinding out the important concept of habitus amputates the theory, and that a test built upon this limitation is not a test of Bourdieu’s theory as a whole, but rather a straw man construction ignoring important parts of the theory. This has strong implications when......The aim of this research note is to discuss inherent limitations in certain established, but problematic, conventions for operationalizing and testing Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of cultural reproduction. These conventions entail a selective focus on the concept of capital at the expense...... seeking to test statistically the viability of Bourdieu’s theory, particularly vis-a-vis rational choice alternatives, and especially where these limitations are not adequately reflected in the interpretation of results and in conclusions....

  12. Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rongda; Li, Cong; Wang, Weijin; Wang, Ze

    2014-03-01

    This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear correlation coefficient with tail dependence correlation coefficient, to measure VaR (Value-at-risk) of the arbitrage position. Analysis of VaR implies that the risk of future-cash arbitrage is less than that of investing completely in either futures or spot market. Then according to the compositional VaR and the marginal VaR, we should increase the futures position and decrease the spot position appropriately to minimize the VaR, which can minimize risk subject to certain revenues.

  13. Mercury in birds of San Francisco Bay-Delta, California: trophic pathways, bioaccumulation, and ecotoxicological risk to avian reproduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Heinz, Gary; De La Cruz, Susan E. W.; Takekawa, John Y.; Miles, A. Keith; Adelsbach, Terrence L.; Herzog, Mark P.; Bluso-Demers, Jill D.; Demers, Scott A.; Herring, Garth; Hoffman, David J.; Hartman, Christopher A.; Willacker, James J.; Suchanek, Thomas H.; Schwarzbach, Steven E.; Maurer, Thomas C.

    2014-01-01

    San Francisco Bay Estuary in northern California has a legacy of mercury contamination, which could reduce the health and reproductive success of waterbirds in the estuary. The goal of this study was to use an integrated field and laboratory approach to evaluate the risks of mercury exposure to birds in the estuary. We examined mercury bioaccumulation, and other contaminants of concern, in five waterbird species that depend heavily on San Francisco Bay Estuary for foraging and breeding habitat: American avocets (Recurvirostra americana), black-necked stilts (Himantopus mexicanus), Forster’s terns (Sterna forsteri), Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), and surf scoters (Melanitta perspicillata). These species have different foraging habitats and diets that represent three distinct foraging guilds within the estuary’s food web. In this report, we provide an integrated synthesis of the primary findings from this study and results are synthesized from 54 peer-reviewed publications generated to date with other unpublished results.

  14. Reproductive factors and risks of biliary tract cancers and stones: a population-based study in Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreotti, G; Hou, L; Gao, Y-T; Brinton, L A; Rashid, A; Chen, J; Shen, M-C; Wang, B-S; Han, T-Q; Zhang, B-H; Sakoda, L C; Fraumeni, J F; Hsing, A W

    2010-01-01

    Background: Parity has been linked to gallbladder cancer and gallstones, but the effects of other reproductive factors are less clear. Methods: We examined 361 incident biliary tract cancer cases, 647 biliary stone cases, and 586 healthy women in a population-based study in Shanghai. Results: The effects of parity (odds ratios, OR⩾3 vs 1 child=2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7–5.1), younger age at first birth (ORper 1-year decrease=1.2, 95% CI 0.99–1.6), and older age at menarche (ORper 1-year increase=1.4, 95% CI 1.1–1.8) on gallbladder cancer risk were more pronounced among women with stones, but the interactions were not significant. Conclusion: Our results provide support for high parity, younger age at first birth, and late age at menarche in the development of gallbladder cancer, particularly among women with biliary stones. PMID:20216539

  15. Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2017-11-01

    Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Aggression and risk of future violence in forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selenius, Heidi; Hellström, Ake; Belfrage, Henrik

    2011-05-01

    Dyslexia does not cause criminal behaviour, but it may worsen aggressive behaviour tendencies. In this study, aggressive behaviour and risk of future violence were compared between forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia. Dyslexia was assessed using the Swedish phonological processing battery 'The Pigeon'. The patients filled in the Aggression Questionnaire, and trained assessors performed the risk assessments using HCR-20 version 2. Patients with dyslexia self-reported more aggressive behaviour compared with those without dyslexia. There was only a nearly significant tendency (p = 0.06) for the patients with dyslexia to receive higher scores in the HCR-20 compared with the patients without dyslexia, and phonological processing skills did not significantly predict aggression or risk of future violence. However, regression analyses demonstrated that poor phonological processing skills are a significant predictor of anger, which in turn significantly predicts risk of future violence. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Reproductive health experiences of women with cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chor, Julie; Oswald, Lora; Briller, Joan; Cowett, Allison; Peacock, Nadine; Harwood, Bryna

    2012-11-01

    Limited research exists exploring contraceptive and pregnancy experiences of women with cardiovascular diseases. We conducted semistructured interviews with reproductive-age women with chronic hypertension or peripartum cardiomyopathy exploring thoughts and behaviors regarding future fertility. Transcribed interviews were coded and analyzed identifying salient themes. We interviewed 20 women with chronic hypertension and 10 women with peripartum cardiomyopathy. Women described a spectrum of perspectives regarding the relationship between disease and fertility: from complete disconnect to full integration of diagnosis and future fertility plans. Integration of reproductive and cardiovascular health was influenced by and reflected in circumstances of diagnosis, pregnancy-related experiences, contraception-related experiences and conceptualization of disease risk related to reproductive health. Providers must better understand how women perceive and consider their reproductive and cardiovascular health in order to optimize contraceptive care of women with cardiovascular disease and help them make safe, informed decisions about future fertility. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Role of socio-economic and reproductive factors in the risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magyari, Melinda

    2015-01-01

    rapid to be explained by gene alterations. We investigated the effect of numerous biological social physical and chemical environmental exposures in different periods of life. These data were available from population-based registries and were used in a case-control approach. This study database...... children reduced the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women but not in men. Childbirths reduced the risk of MS by about 46% during the following 5 years. Even pregnancies terminated early had a protective effect on the risk of developing MS suggesting a temporary immunosuppression during pregnancy. Our...... data on social behaviour regarding educational level income and relationship stability did not indicate reverse causality. A greater likelihood to be exposed to common infections did not show any effect on the risk of MS neither in puberty nor in adulthood. Socio-economic status and lifestyle expressed...

  19. Radiation dose, reproductive history, and breast cancer risk among Japanese A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, C.E.

    1992-01-01

    Excess risk of female breast cancer is among the most comprehensively documented late effects of exposure to substantial doses of ionizing radiation, based on studies of medically irradiated populations and the survivors of the A-bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This study looks at the interaction of dose with epidemiological factors like age at first full-term pregnancy and family history of breast cancer, most closely associated with risk in epidemiological studies of non-irradiatied populations. 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  1. Risk of Monozygotic Twins After Assisted Reproduction: A Population-Based Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parazzini, Fabio; Cipriani, Sonia; Bianchi, Stefano; Bulfoni, Camilla; Bortolus, Renata; Somigliana, Edgardo

    2016-02-01

    Recent studies have suggested that ovarian stimulation and assisted reproductive techniques (ART) may increase the frequency of monozygotic twins. In this article, we present the analysis of the estimated frequency of twin deliveries following in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Lombardy during the period 2010-2014 for a total of 450,949 pregnancies. This is a population-based study using data from the regional data base of Lombardy, a northern Italian region with a population of about 10 million inhabitants. During the considered period, a total of 461,424 single or multiple births were registered in Lombardy. After exclusion of triplets or more pregnancies, the total number of twin deliveries, in separate strata of like and unlike sex pregnancies twin deliveries, were obtained and the rate of twin deliveries was computed according to spontaneous and non-spontaneous conception and type of ART. Further, estimates of dizygotic or monozygotic twin births were calculated using Weinberg's methods. The frequency of twins deliveries was 1.24/100 deliveries after natural conception and 20.05 after assisted conception. The estimated rates of monozygotic twins was 0.45 and 0.72/100 (95% CI: 0.58-0.91) deliveries after natural and assisted conception, respectively. This difference was statistically significant (p assisted than after natural conception.

  2. 75 FR 76995 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-10

    ... at the workshop. Registration to attend the workshop is closed; however, slides presented during the....O. Box 12233, MD K2-04, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (mail), 919-541-5021 (telephone), or thayer... (``Tox21'') high throughput screening initiative. Identify data gaps and areas for future evaluation...

  3. Risk perception of future cardiovascular disease in women diagnosed with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traylor, Jessica; Chandrasekaran, Suchitra; Limaye, Meghana; Srinivas, Sindhu; Durnwald, Celeste P

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate a woman's risk perception for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) after being diagnosed with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. A prospective cohort of women diagnosed with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) was studied. Each woman completed two surveys, one prior to hospital discharge and one 2 weeks later, designed to assess knowledge of and risk perception for future CVD based on their recent diagnosis of a HDP. Rates of postpartum depression were also assessed. Of the 146 subjects included, 28% were diagnosed with preeclampsia with severe features, 52.1% with preeclampsia with mild features, and 19.9% had chronic hypertension. Women with severe features and those delivering preterm were more likely to report a perception of increased risk of both recurrent HDP in a future pregnancy (p = 0.004 and 0.005, respectively) and hypertension later in life (p = 0.01 and 0.03, respectively). Women delivering preterm were more likely to report an accurate perception of increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke compared to those delivering at term (p = 0.006 and 0.002, respectively). Disease severity and preterm delivery were associated with a higher likelihood of the perception of an increased risk for both recurrent HDP and hypertension in the future. Only preterm delivery was associated with a higher risk perception for stroke and myocardial infarction. Interventions targeted at improved health awareness in women diagnosed with HDP are warranted.

  4. A culture of future planning: perceptions of sexual risk among educated young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheney, Ann M; Ostrach, Bayla; Marcus, Ruthanne; Frank, Cynthia; Ball, Cassandra; Erickson, Pamela I

    2014-10-01

    In this study we examined how social processes, specifically the acquisition of postsecondary education and capital, shaped perceptions of sexual risk and impacted sexual practices and sexual health among young adults. Using qualitative research methods we collected and analyzed data among students attending a 4-year university in the northeastern region of the United States over a 1-year period. By analyzing participants' narratives, we found that the reproduction of shared norms and values encouraged educated young adults to focus on educational and professional success, pressing many of them to be concerned about preventing pregnancy rather than preventing disease transmission, and increasing their risk for sexually transmitted infections, including HIV/AIDS. Sexual-health educators need to address how social processes shape sexual practices, encourage educated young adults to challenge unequal gender expectations, and consider how sexually transmitted infections might also interfere with life plans. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Genetic variations, reproductive aging, and breast cancer risk in African American and European American women: The Women's Circle of Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coignet, Marie V; Zirpoli, Gary Robert; Roberts, Michelle R; Khoury, Thaer; Bandera, Elisa V; Zhu, Qianqian; Yao, Song

    2017-01-01

    Reproductive aging phenotypes, including age at menarche (AM) and age at natural menopause (ANM), are well-established risk factors for breast cancer. In recent years, many genetic variants have been identified in association with AM and ANM in genome-wide association studies among European populations. Using data from the Women's Circle of Health Study (WCHS) of 1,307 European-American (EA) and 1,365 African-American (AA) breast cancer cases and controls, we aimed to replicate 53 earlier GWAS variants for AM and ANM in AA and EA groups and to perform analyses on total and net reproductive lifespan (TRLS; NRLS). Breast cancer risk was also examined in relation to a polygenic risk score (PRS) for each of the reproductive aging phenotypes. We replicated a number of variants in EA women, including rs7759938 in LIN28B for AM and rs16991615 in MCM8 for ANM; whereas in the AA group, only one SNP (rs2947411 in TMEM18) for AM was directionally consistent and nominally significant. In analysis of TRLS and NRLS, several SNPs were significant, including rs466639 in RXRG that was associated with both phenotypes in both AA and EA groups. None of the PRS was associated with breast cancer risk. Given the paucity of data available among AA populations, our study contributes to the literature of genetics of reproductive aging in AA women and highlights the importance of cross population replication of GWAS variants.

  6. National cohort study of reproductive risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis in Denmark: a role for hyperemesis, gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, K T; Pedersen, B V; Jacobsen, S

    2010-01-01

    While reproductive factors might plausibly be involved in the aetiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the female predominance remains unexplained. A study was undertaken to address the possible impact of live births, pregnancy losses and pregnancy complications on the subsequent risk of RA...

  7. Gestational carrier BMI and reproductive, fetal and neonatal outcomes: are the risks the same with increasing obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyne, K; Whigham, L D; O'Leary, K; Yaklic, J K; Maxwell, R A; Lindheim, S R

    2016-01-01

    Data suggest that female obesity impairs uterine receptivity and increases the risk of fetal and neonatal mortality. We analyzed the reproductive outcomes of gestational carriers (GCs) undergoing donated oocytes and assisted reproductive technology according to body mass index (BMI). A retrospective analysis of 163 GCs undergoing 226 in vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo transfer cycles. GCs undergoing in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer cycles were analyzed and divided according to their BMI (healthy weight: 20-24.9 kg m(-2) (n=77 in 114 cycles); overweight: 25-29.9 kg m(-)(2) (n=55 in 71 cycles); and obese: 30-35 kg m(-)(2) (n=31 in 41 cycles)). All GCs underwent a complete medical evaluation and were cleared for pregnancy before being selected. Overweight and obese GCs also underwent a metabolic screening, including an oral glucose tolerance test and lipid profile. The main outcomes measured were clinical pregnancy and live birth rates, antenatal and neonatal outcomes. Clinical pregnancy and live birth rates were similar despite increasing BMI. There were no statistically significant differences in the implantation rates, clinical pregnancy rates or live birth rates per embryo transfer among patients in the three BMI groups. In the healthy weight, overweight and obese GCs, the clinical pregnancy rates per GC were 72%, 84% and 79%, and per embryo transfer rates were 52%, 49% and 56%, respectively; P=NS. The live birth rates per GC were 70%, 84% and 75%, and per embryo transfer rates were 50%, 49% and 53%, respectively; P=NS. Twin rates were similar between the groups (35%, 31% and 29%, respectively; P=NS). There were no differences in gestational diabetes, preterm admissions or cesarean section rates. Neonatal intensive care unit admissions were similar (11%, 13% and 12%, respectively; P=NS), and no maternal, neonatal or infant mortality occurred. These data show that increasing obesity does not impair the reproductive outcome in GC cycles

  8. Revealing polychaetes invasion patterns: Identification, reproduction and potential risks of the Korean ragworm, Perinereis linea (Treadwell), in the Western Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Andrés; Richter, Alexandra; Anadón, Nuria; Glasby, Christopher J.

    2013-10-01

    An established population of the polychaetous annelid Perinereis linea (Treadwell) is reported for the first time outside its native distribution range (NW Pacific). This exotic worm has reached the Western Mediterranean (Mar Menor lagoon) via importing live fishing-bait as it is commonly used by anglers in Mar Menor lagoon, an area largely used for recreational fishing. To avoid confusion with other related species, and because the scientific name has been in synonymy for many years, P. linea is redescribed and illustrated. We focus on the reproductive biology and ecology of P. linea to help to understand its introduction, naturalization and spread along this coastal lagoon. Comparison between the Mediterranean population with a native population from South Korea revealed that the species exhibits a great reproductive plasticity and adaptability, which depends on the environmental conditions. Perinereis linea can reproduce after acquiring the epitokous form or prior to complete epitokal modification. In the Mar Menor lagoon population females release eggs asynchronically without completing epitokal modifications. However, under particular laboratory conditions females produce eggs synchronically and release them after complete epitokal transformations. Fertilization can occur internally in the female coelom, and females release zygotes and larvae through openings in their body walls; they are then incubated in gelatinous masses attached to the female parapodia. The sperm morphology is of the ent-aquasperm type. The eggs and larvae are attacked by symbiotic ciliate protozoa that feed on their yolk reserves. These foreign ciliates may act as carriers of disease in native beachworms and constitute an important risk for the ecosystem health. Finally, we provide recommendations on the prevention of the adverse effects that this exotic ragworm can cause in receiving ecosystems.

  9. Female Gender and Reproductive Factors Affecting Risk, Relapses and Progression in Multiple Sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'hooghe, M. B.; D'Hooghe, T.; De Keyser, J.

    2013-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory demyelinating and degenerative disease of the central nervous system, is a frequent cause of neurological disability in young adults. Female predominance has increased over the last decades. Although female gender carries a higher risk of developing

  10. Reproductive and hormonal factors, and ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Antonis C; Rookus, Matti; Andrieu, Nadine

    2009-01-01

    carriers seemed to be greater among more recent users. Tubal ligation was associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer for BRCA1 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% confidence intervals, 0.22-0.80; P = 0.008). The number of ovarian cancer cases in BRCA2 mutation carriers was too small to draw definitive...

  11. Polycystic ovary syndrome and early-onset preeclampsia : reproductive manifestations of increased cardiovascular risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veltman-Verhulst, Susanne M.; van Rijn, Bas B.; Westerveld, H. Egbertine; Franx, Arie; Bruinse, Hein W.; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Goverde, Angelique J.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women is a major healthcare issue. Detection of premenopausal women with increased risk of CVD could enhance prevention strategies and reduce first event-related morbidity and mortality. In this study, we argue that an unfavorable

  12. Impact of body mass decrease of patients with metabolic syndrome on cardiovascular risk factors and reproductive function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ol'ga Borisovna Kalinkina

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The obesity pandemia linked metabolic syndrome (MS connected with it acquires not only medical, but also increasing social importance. This state has unfavorable action on human organism and is the serious diseases risk factor. Special importance MS available in the women of childbearing age. There are described some literature data about the special features of MS pathogenesis in women and the possibilities of its correction with sibutramine and by the combined medication Reduxin® (sibutramine + cellulose microcrystalline. Our own data of the experience of treatment by the Reduxin® 53 women in reproductive age with MS are cited, opsomenorrhea and with a formation of polycystic ovarian syndrome. Patients took the medication during 12 weeks. Mean body weight loss was 13% and 27 patients had weight loss more than 5% at the end the period of observation. Circle of waist was also the decreased on the average on 6±2 cm. 43 women had a normalization of rhythm, duration and intensity of menstrual hemorrhages. Remaining patients it was required the designation of gestagen in the cyclic regime. An improvement of the blood lipid profile was detect: the average value of atherogenic index triglycerides/ high density lipoproteins cholesterol was improved to 35,8%. The maximum decrease of the cardiovascular disease risk factors was marked in the patients, who had weight loss more than 10%.

  13. Identification of athletes at future risk of anterior cruciate ligament ruptures by neuromuscular screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zebis, Mette K; Andersen, Lars L; Bencke, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Noninjured athletes with low knee flexor electromyography (EMG) preactivity and high knee extensor EMG preactivity during sidecutting are at increased risk of future ACL rupture. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: Fifty-five elite female athletes (team handball and soccer......: During the subsequent 2 match seasons, 5 athletes sustained a confirmed noncontact ACL rupture. Before injury, all 5 players displayed a neuromuscular pattern that differed from the noninjured players, characterized by reduced EMG preactivity for the semitendinosus (ST) and elevated EMG preactivity...... study, currently noninjured female athletes with reduced EMG preactivity of the ST and increased EMG preactivity of the VL during side cutting were at increased risk of future noncontact ACL rupture. Our data indicate that a high-risk zone can be used to identify noninjured players at high risk...

  14. Hormonal and reproductive risk factors associated with breast cancer in Isfahan patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tazhibi, Mehdi; Dehghani, Mohsen; Babazadeh, Shadi; Makkarian, Fariborz; Tabatabaeian, Maryam; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Rezaei, Parisa; Faghihi, Mehri

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent type of cancer among Iranian females; it is noteworthy that the condition of this type of cancer among Iranian women does not significantly differ from what has been reported from other countries. Considering the importance of this issue, identification of the backgrounds factors and risk factors of the breast cancer risk are highly needed. Therefore, the present study is aimed to compare the risk factors of resident patients of Isfahan province, Iran, with accredited risk factors by other countries and also identify the importance of each factor in the incidence of cancer. Materials and Methods: The present work is a case-control study, which was conducted in 2011. In order to conduct the study, 216 women who had been clinically identified with breast cancer were selected from Seiedo-Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran, as the case group. Moreover, 41 healthy women who were the relatives of the selected patients (i.e., sisters and aunts) were selected as the control group. The data and information of the patients from 1999 to 2010 were collected from either assessing the database system of the center for breast cancer research or interviewing the patients through phone. To analyze the data, multiple logistic regression method was applied. Results: The range of age among selected individuals in this study was from 20-75 years old. The determinant factors for odds of breast cancer included in the applied multiple logistic regression model were the use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) (odds ratio [OR] =0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.04-0.75) as the protective factor, hormone replacement therapy (OR = 10.2, 95% CI = 1.18-88.89) and menopause at old age (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.11-2.12) as the risk factors. Furthermore, there was not seen any significant relationship between age, vocation, and marital status with odds of breast cancer in multiple model. Conclusion: Based on the results, use of OCPs as protective

  15. Futures and forward contract as a route of hedging the risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misbahul Islam

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present highly uncertain business scenario, the importance of risk management is much greater than ever before. Variations in the prices of agricultural and non-agricultural commodities are induced, over time, by demand-supply dynamics. The last two decades have witnessed many-fold increase in the volume of international trade and business due to the wave of globalization and liberalization sweeping across the world. This has led to rapid and unpredictable variations in financial assets prices, interest rates and exchange rates, and subsequently, to exposing the corporate world to an unwieldy financial risk. As a result, financial markets have experienced rapid variations in interest and exchange rates, stock market prices thus exposing the corporate world to a state of growing financial risk. The emergence of derivatives market is an ingenious feat of financial engineering that provides an effective and less costly solution to the problem of risk that is embedded in the price unpredictability of the underlying asset. Derivatives provide an effective solution to the problem of risk caused by uncertainty and volatility in underlying assets. These are the financial instruments that are linked to a specific financial instrument or indicator or commodity and through which specific risks can be traded in financial markets in their own right. In actual practice there are various different types of derivatives but this paper emphasizes on the two most important types of derivatives i.e. futures and forward contracts. These two are the most commonly used types of derivatives in financial markets. We can hedge the risk of price variations in stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, market indices etc. This study is about the futures and forward contracts. This paper presents various types of futures and forward contract and what advantages and disadvantages these two important types of derivatives have? It also includes that how

  16. Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellish, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

  17. The ethics of human reproductive cloning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Carson

    2005-03-01

    This article addresses the question of whether human reproductive cloning could be ethically justifiable in at least some cases involving infertile couples who would choose cloning as a way to have a genetically related child. At present, the risk of congenital anomalies constitutes a compelling argument against human reproductive cloning. The article explores whether reproductive cloning could be ethically justifiable if, at some future time, cloning becomes possible without an elevated risk of anomalies. It is argued that freedom to use cloning is a form of procreative freedom and, as such, deserves respect. All of the objections that have been raised against human reproductive cloning fall under three main categories: those that appeal to the interests of the child, those based on consequences for society, and those arising from teleological views. Objections that appeal to the child's interests are, in turn, of two main kinds: consequentialist and deontological. All of these types of objections are examined, and it is found that each involves serious problems that prevent it from being a reasonable objection in the context of the infertility cases considered. It is concluded that human reproductive cloning would be ethically justifiable in at least some cases involving infertile couples, provided that it could be performed without an elevated risk of anomalies.

  18. Changing reproductive effort within a semelparous reproductive episode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, P William; Simons, Andrew M

    2014-08-01

    • Life-history theory predicts a trade-off between current and future reproduction for iteroparous organisms-as individuals age, the expected value of future reproduction declines, and thus reproductive effort is expected to be higher in later clutches than in earlier. In contrast, models explaining the evolution of semelparity treat semelparous reproduction as instantaneous, with no scope for intraindividual variation. However, semelparous reproduction is also extended, but over shorter time scales; whether there are similar age- or stage-specific changes in reproductive effort within a semelparous episode is unclear. In this study, we assessed whether semelparous individuals increase reproductive effort as residual reproductive value declines by comparing the reproductive phenotype of flowers at five different floral positions along a main inflorescence.• Using the herbaceous monocarp Lobelia inflata, we conducted a longitudinal study of 409 individuals including both laboratory and field populations over three seasons. We recorded six reproductive traits-including the length of three phenological intervals as well as fruit size, seed size, and seed number-for all plants across floral positions produced throughout the reproductive episode.• We found that while the rate of flower initiation did not change, flowers at distal (late) floral positions developed more quickly and contained larger seed than flowers at basal (early) floral positions did.• Our results were consistent with the hypothesis that, like iteroparous organisms, L. inflata increases reproductive effort in response to low residual reproductive value. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  19. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  20. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  1. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  2. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weron, Rafal [Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

    2008-05-15

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  3. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weron, Rafal

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  4. Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

    2018-01-01

    In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in

  5. Risk, Incentives and Coordination Costs in Agro-Food Chains in the Presence of Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuwornu, J.K.M.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis focuses on developing conceptual models to examine the role of futures markets for risk-shifting, incentives and coordination costs in the context of commodity marketing channels. The empirical analysis is conducted for different marketing channel structures (two-stage and three-stage

  6. Aggression and Risk of Future Violence in Forensic Psychiatric Patients with and without Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selenius, Heidi; Hellstrom, Ake; Belfrage, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Dyslexia does not cause criminal behaviour, but it may worsen aggressive behaviour tendencies. In this study, aggressive behaviour and risk of future violence were compared between forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia. Dyslexia was assessed using the Swedish phonological processing battery "The Pigeon". The patients…

  7. Reproductive and developmental toxicology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gupta, Ramesh C

    2011-01-01

    .... With a special focus on placental toxicity, this book is the only available reference to connect the three key risk stages, and is the only resource to include reproductive and developmental toxicity in domestic animals, fish, and wildlife.

  8. Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

    2011-01-01

    Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  10. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  11. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  12. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A pilot study on the reproductive risks of maternal exposure to magnetic fields from electronic article surveillance systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Waseem; Roivainen, Päivi; Herrala, Mikko; Tiikkaja, Maria; Sallmén, Markku; Hietanen, Maila; Juutilainen, Jukka

    2018-02-26

    We investigated the feasibility of a large-scale epidemiological study on reproductive effects of intermediate frequency (IF) magnetic field (MF) exposure among cashiers working near electronic article surveillance (EAS) systems. The study cohort included 4157 women who had worked as cashiers in supermarkets with EAS devices (considered as exposed) or grocery stores without EAS devices (considered as unexposed) between 2008 and 2015. 536 births and 38 miscarriages occurred among these women during the study period, based on information from nationwide health registries. Measurements were also performed to characterize the MF exposure of cashiers. Cashiers were found to be exposed to 8.2 MHz MFs only when passing by the gates at short distance. Static fields of about 0.1 mT were observed at cashier's seat. Extremely low frequency MFs were higher at stores without EAS devices. No differences on the risk of miscarriage, reduced birth weight or preterm birth were observed between cashiers in different store types. Any further studies should attempt to include study subjects working near EAS systems that produce stronger IF MFs at kHz frequencies. Exposure to ELF MFs should be assessed as a possible confounding factor.

  14. From menarche to menopause: A population-based assessment of water, sanitation, and hygiene risk factors for reproductive tract infection symptoms over life stages in rural girls and women in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kelly K; Padhi, Bijaya; Torondel, Belen; Das, Padmalaya; Dutta, Ambarish; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Das, Bhabani; Dreibelbis, Robert; Caruso, Bethany; Freeman, Matthew C; Sager, Lauren; Panigrahi, Pinaki

    2017-01-01

    Women face greater challenges than men in accessing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) resources to address their daily needs, and may respond to these challenges by adopting unsafe practices that increase the risk of reproductive tract infections (RTIs). WASH practices may change as women transition through socially-defined life stage experiences, like marriage and pregnancy. Thus, the relationship between WASH practices and RTIs might vary across female reproductive life stages. This cross-sectional study assessed the relationship between WASH exposures and self-reported RTI symptoms in 3,952 girls and women from two rural districts in India, and tested whether social exposures represented by reproductive life stage was an effect modifier of associations. In fully adjusted models, RTI symptoms were less common in women using a latrine without water for defecation versus open defecation (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.69; Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.48, 0.98) and those walking shorter distances to a bathing location (OR = 0.79, CI = 0.63, 0.99), but there was no association between using a latrine with a water source and RTIs versus open defecation (OR = 1.09; CI = 0.69, 1.72). Unexpectedly, RTI symptoms were more common for women bathing daily with soap (OR = 6.55, CI = 3.60, 11.94) and for women washing their hands after defecation with soap (OR = 10.27; CI = 5.53, 19.08) or ash/soil/mud (OR = 6.02; CI = 3.07, 11.77) versus water only or no hand washing. WASH practices of girls and women varied across reproductive life stages, but the associations between WASH practices and RTI symptoms were not moderated by or confounded by life stage status. This study provides new evidence that WASH access and practices are associated with self-reported reproductive tract infection symptoms in rural Indian girls and women from different reproductive life stages. However, the counterintuitive directions of effect for soap use highlights that causality and mechanisms of effect cannot

  15. From menarche to menopause: A population-based assessment of water, sanitation, and hygiene risk factors for reproductive tract infection symptoms over life stages in rural girls and women in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padhi, Bijaya; Torondel, Belen; Das, Padmalaya; Dutta, Ambarish; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Freeman, Matthew C.; Sager, Lauren; Panigrahi, Pinaki

    2017-01-01

    Women face greater challenges than men in accessing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) resources to address their daily needs, and may respond to these challenges by adopting unsafe practices that increase the risk of reproductive tract infections (RTIs). WASH practices may change as women transition through socially-defined life stage experiences, like marriage and pregnancy. Thus, the relationship between WASH practices and RTIs might vary across female reproductive life stages. This cross-sectional study assessed the relationship between WASH exposures and self-reported RTI symptoms in 3,952 girls and women from two rural districts in India, and tested whether social exposures represented by reproductive life stage was an effect modifier of associations. In fully adjusted models, RTI symptoms were less common in women using a latrine without water for defecation versus open defecation (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.69; Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.48, 0.98) and those walking shorter distances to a bathing location (OR = 0.79, CI = 0.63, 0.99), but there was no association between using a latrine with a water source and RTIs versus open defecation (OR = 1.09; CI = 0.69, 1.72). Unexpectedly, RTI symptoms were more common for women bathing daily with soap (OR = 6.55, CI = 3.60, 11.94) and for women washing their hands after defecation with soap (OR = 10.27; CI = 5.53, 19.08) or ash/soil/mud (OR = 6.02; CI = 3.07, 11.77) versus water only or no hand washing. WASH practices of girls and women varied across reproductive life stages, but the associations between WASH practices and RTI symptoms were not moderated by or confounded by life stage status. This study provides new evidence that WASH access and practices are associated with self-reported reproductive tract infection symptoms in rural Indian girls and women from different reproductive life stages. However, the counterintuitive directions of effect for soap use highlights that causality and mechanisms of effect cannot

  16. The future of risk communication and the role of the pharmaceutical industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Sweta; Bouder, Frederic

    2013-02-01

    Risk communication is an interactive two-way process that various stakeholders (e.g., patients, regulators, industry) utilize to address prescription drug safety. This paper will specifically examine the pharmaceutical industry's engagement with risk communication as a tool for information exchange with patients and other stakeholders about the associated risks related to its medicines. Risk communications are not solely meant to inform; and rather effective two-way risk communications have the potential to change behavioral outcomes for the purpose of individual and societal benefit. Despite this indispensable role of risk communication for the pharmaceutical industry, more research is needed for the appropriate development and dissemination of risk communications. A crucial missing component for the crafting of pharmaceutical risk communications is the understanding of risk perceptions from the patient/consumer's perspective. This is necessary to see where any divergences in views may lie between the industry and its final consumer, which is crucial in tailoring communications to target a specific erroneous belief or to address what might be deemed as a needed behavioral shift. It is also necessary to develop communications in consideration of the levels of public trust in the industry as well as other perceived actors in the healthcare system. Even the most meticulously crafted and tested risk communications will fail to fulfill their purpose if the role of trust is not taken into consideration. These considerations can lead to the establishment of a "social contract" that effectively addresses what is required from both parties for continued and mutually beneficial interactions. Conducting risk perception research, addressing the role of trust, establishing a social contract, and having a realistic outlook on the impact of risk communications are necessary considerations as pharmaceutical risk communication evolves for the future.

  17. Temporal trends in reproductive performance in Irish dairy herds and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mee John F

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Irish dairy herd fertility has been declining since the 1980s. The extent, nature and causes of this decline in fertility and the current status of Irish dairy herd fertility were described. An increase in calving interval of approximately one day per year has been recorded. The principal components of this trend have been an increased incidence of postpartum endocrinopathies, reduced expression of oestrus and a fall in conception rate. Both submission rate and calving-to-service interval have increased slightly over time. Significant risk factors associated with these trends have been strain substitution within the Holstein-Friesian breed and single trait selection for milk production. Critically, these changes have been reflected in loss of body condition. Contributory factors included increased herd size and possibly increased use of DIYAI. The most recent Irish study showed that 48% of cows conceived to first service and 14% of cows were not pregnant at the end of the industry-average 15-week spring breeding season. However, the top quartile of herds achieved a first-service conception rate of 59%, illustrating the wide variation between herds. These phenotypic trends were attributed to both genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. Recent Irish dairy herd fertility performance falls short of the targets set for seasonal compact calving.

  18. The burden and risk factors of Sexually Transmitted Infections and Reproductive Tract Infections among pregnant women in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munjoma Marshal W

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sexually transmitted infections (STIs and Reproductive tract infections (RTIs are responsible for high morbidity among women. We aim to quantify the magnitude of the burden and risk factors of STI/RTI s among pregnant women in Zimbabwe. Methods A cross sectional study of pregnant women enrolled at 36 weeks of gestation from the national PMTCT program. Study was conducted from three peri-urban clinics around Harare Zimbabwe offering maternal and child health services. Results A total of 691 pregnant women were enrolled. Prevalence of HSV was (51.1%, HIV (25.6% syphilis (1.2%, Trichomonas vaginalis (11.8%, bacterial vaginosis (32.6% and Candidiasis (39.9%. Seven percent of the women had genital warts, 3% had genital ulcers and 28% had an abnormal vaginal discharge. Prevalence of serological STIs and vaginal infections were 51% and 64% respectively. Risk factors for a positive serologic STI were increasing age above 30 years, polygamy and multigravid; adjusted OR (95% CI 2.61(1.49-4.59, 2.16(1.06-4.39, 3.89(1.27-11.98 respectively, partner taking alcohol and number of lifetime sexual partners. For vaginal infections it was age at sexual debut; OR (95% CI 1.60(1.06-2.42. More than 25% of the women reported previous STI treatment. Fifty two percent reported ever use of condoms and 65% were on oral contraceptives. Mean age gap for sexual partners was 6.3 years older. Conclusions There is a high morbidity of STI/RTIs in this cohort. There is need to continuously screen, counsel, treat and monitor trends of STI/RTIs to assess if behaviour changes lead to reduction in infections and their sustainability.

  19. Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: I. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate male reproductive development toxicity data set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makris, Susan L., E-mail: makris.susan@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, (Mail code 8623P), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, (Mail code 8623P), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Gray, L. Earl [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, (MD-72), Highway 54, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, (Mail code 8P-W), 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Foster, Paul M.D. [National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, P.O. Box 12233 (MD K2-12), Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    A case study was conducted, using dibutyl phthalate (DBP), to explore an approach to using toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. The toxicity and toxicogenomic data sets relative to DBP-related male reproductive developmental outcomes were considered conjointly to derive information about mode and mechanism of action. In this manuscript, we describe the case study evaluation of the toxicological database for DBP, focusing on identifying the full spectrum of male reproductive developmental effects. The data were assessed to 1) evaluate low dose and low incidence findings and 2) identify male reproductive toxicity endpoints without well-established modes of action (MOAs). These efforts led to the characterization of data gaps and research needs for the toxicity and toxicogenomic studies in a risk assessment context. Further, the identification of endpoints with unexplained MOAs in the toxicity data set was useful in the subsequent evaluation of the mechanistic information that the toxicogenomic data set evaluation could provide. The extensive analysis of the toxicology data set within the MOA context provided a resource of information for DBP in attempts to hypothesize MOAs (for endpoints without a well-established MOA) and to phenotypically anchor toxicogenomic and other mechanistic data both to toxicity endpoints and to available toxicogenomic data. This case study serves as an example of the steps that can be taken to develop a toxicological data source for a risk assessment, both in general and especially for risk assessments that include toxicogenomic data.

  20. In vitro fertilization in Japan — Early days of in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer and future prospects for assisted reproductive technology —

    Science.gov (United States)

    SUZUKI, Masakuni

    2014-01-01

    Assisted reproductive technology (ART) such as in vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo transfer (ET) has been essential in the treatment of infertility. The world’s first IVF-ET baby was born in 1978 based on the technique developed by Dr. Robert Edwards and Dr. Patrick Steptoe.1) In Japan, the first IVF-ET birth was reported in 1983 by Prof. Masakuni Suzuki at Tohoku University School of Medicine.2,3) IVF-ET is a procedure used to achieve pregnancy that consists of extracting oocytes from an infertile woman, fertilizing them in vitro, and transferring fertilized eggs into the patient’s uterine cavity (Fig. 1). Since the first report of successful IVF-ET, numerous techniques related to ART, such as cryopreservation of oocytes and embryos, gamete intrafallopian transfer (GIFT), and microinsemination, have been developed and refined (Table 1). Herein we describe the history of basic research in IVF-ET that led to human applications, how the birth of the first IVF-ET baby was achieved in Japan, the current status of ART in Japan, issues related to ART, and future prospects for ART. PMID:24814992

  1. Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

    2009-01-01

    This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

  3. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  4. Congenital anomalies after assisted reproductive technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinborg, Anja; Henningsen, Anna-Karina Aaris; Malchau, Sara Sofie

    2013-01-01

    Worldwide, more than 5 million children have been born after assisted reproductive technology (ART), and in many developed countries ART infants represent more than 1% of the birth cohorts. It is well known that ART children are at increased risk of congenital malformations even after adjustment...... for known confounders such as maternal age. The proportion of ART children is not negligible, and knowledge about the causes of the higher risk of congenital malformations is crucial to develop prevention strategies to reduce the future risk in ART children. The aim of this review is to summarize...

  5. At, with and beyond risk: expectations of living with the possibility of future dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, Richard; Diaz, Ana; Badger, Shirlene; Bunnik, Eline; Fauria, Karine; Wells, Katie

    2018-04-16

    Biomedical research aimed at the development of therapies for chronic and late-onset conditions increasingly concentrates on the early treatment of symptom-less disease. This broad trend is evidenced in prominent shifts in contemporary dementia research. Revised diagnostic criteria and new approaches to clinical trials propose a focus on earlier stages of disease and prompt concerns about the implications of communicating test results associated with the risk of developing dementia when no effective treatments are available. This article examines expectations of the implications of learning test results related to dementia risk, based on focus group research conducted in the UK and Spain. It points to the extended social and temporal aspects of the dementia risk experience. Three key dimensions of this risk experience are elaborated: living 'at risk', represented in efforts to reduce risk and plan for the future; 'with risk', through vigilance towards cognitive health and earlier or prolonged contact with healthcare services; and finally, 'beyond risk' through a cessation of the self in its current social, legal and financial form. A virtual abstract of this paper can be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_979cmCmR9rLrKuD7z0ycA. © 2018 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  6. Current Roles and Future Applications of Cardiac CT: Risk Stratification of Coronary Artery Disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Yeonyee Elizabeth [Department of Cardiology, Cardiovascular Center, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam 463-707 (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae-Hwan [Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul 138-736 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    Cardiac computed tomography (CT) has emerged as a noninvasive modality for the assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD), and has been rapidly integrated into clinical cares. CT has changed the traditional risk stratification based on clinical risk to image-based identification of patient risk. Cardiac CT, including coronary artery calcium score and coronary CT angiography, can provide prognostic information and is expected to improve risk stratification of CAD. Currently used conventional cardiac CT, provides accurate anatomic information but not functional significance of CAD, and it may not be sufficient to guide treatments such as revascularization. Recently, myocardial CT perfusion imaging, intracoronary luminal attenuation gradient, and CT-derived computed fractional flow reserve were developed to combine anatomical and functional data. Although at present, the diagnostic and prognostic value of these novel technologies needs to be evaluated further, it is expected that all-in-one cardiac CT can guide treatment and improve patient outcomes in the near future.

  7. Bank liquidity risk management: A South African survey to determine future change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Claassen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2008 the global financial system and, more particularly, the world banking system suffered a financial crisis worse than any earlier crises. The financial crunch brought to light that liquidity risk management in banks poses a problem, and that the world’s financial institutions will have to change their current practices as it relates to this risk. Apart from the importance of liquidity and the risk that it may cause, the integrated nature of all risks made banks more aware of the fact that none of these risks can be managed in isolation. For various reasons, South African banks were not as exposed to the problems experienced in the global context. However, SA banks may have learned new lessons from the crisis and may plan to change the way they manage liquidity risk in particular, in the future. In order to determine how SA banks perceive liquidity management and liquidity risk, a survey of all SA banks was carried out. The majority of respondents indicated that the financial crisis reminded them of the importance of liquidity risk management in the South African banking system as well as the global banking system. The majority of banks rate all the liquidity risk management tools as extremely important and rate corporate governance, strategy, policy and risk tolerance, liquidity risk measurement and intra-day liquidity as their number one priority. Basel III is generally perceived as being effective, but 30% of respondents perceived it as neither effective nor ineffective, because South African banks already have similar measures in place

  8. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding antiretroviral management, reproductive health, sexually transmitted infections, and sexual risk behavior among perinatally HIV-infected youth in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lolekha, Rangsima; Boon-Yasidhi, Vitharon; Leowsrisook, Pimsiri; Naiwatanakul, Thananda; Durier, Yuitiang; Nuchanard, Wipada; Tarugsa, Jariya; Punpanich, Warunee; Pattanasin, Sarika; Chokephaibulkit, Kulkanya

    2015-01-01

    More than 30% of perinatally HIV-infected children in Thailand are 12 years and older. As these youth become sexually active, there is a risk that they will transmit HIV to their partners. Data on the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of HIV-infected youth in Thailand are limited. Therefore, we assessed the KAP of perinatally HIV-infected youth and youth reporting sexual risk behaviors receiving care at two tertiary care hospitals in Bangkok, Thailand and living in an orphanage in Lopburi, Thailand. From October 2010 to July 2011, 197 HIV-infected youth completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview to assess their KAP regarding antiretroviral (ARV) management, reproductive health, sexual risk behaviors, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). A majority of youth in this study correctly answered questions about HIV transmission and prevention and the importance of taking ARVs regularly. More than half of the youth in this study demonstrated a lack of family planning, reproductive health, and STI knowledge. Girls had more appropriate attitudes toward safe sex and risk behaviors than boys. Although only 5% of the youth reported that they had engaged in sexual intercourse, about a third reported sexual risk behaviors (e.g., having or kissing boy/girlfriend or consuming an alcoholic beverage). We found low condom use and other family planning practices, increasing the risk of HIV and/or STI transmission to sexual partners. Additional resources are needed to improve reproductive health knowledge and reduce risk behavior among HIV-infected youth in Thailand.

  9. Authors' reply to comment on "Are repeated assisted reproductive technology treatments and an unsuccessful outcome risk factors for unipolar depression in infertile women?"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejbaek, Camilla S.; Pinborg, Anja; Hageman, Ida

    2016-01-01

    The aim of our national register-based study (1) was to investigate the risk of a new episode of unipolar depression among women treated with assisted reproductive technology (ART) in regards to whether they had achieved a live birth (as a result of treatment or spontaneous conception) or not. He...... compared to women having conceived spontaneously. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.......The aim of our national register-based study (1) was to investigate the risk of a new episode of unipolar depression among women treated with assisted reproductive technology (ART) in regards to whether they had achieved a live birth (as a result of treatment or spontaneous conception) or not....... Hence, we did not aim to compare unipolar depression in women who received ART treatment with women who did not. However, a systematic review and meta-analysis (2) was published recently which shows no increased risk of post-partum depressive symptoms in women after medically assisted reproduction...

  10. Analogs and the BHP Risk Reduction Strategy for Future Spaceflight Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmire, Sandra; Leveton, Lauren

    2011-01-01

    In preparation for future exploration missions to distant destinations (e.g., Moon, Near Earth Objects (NEO), and Mars), the NASA Human Research Program s (HRP) Behavioral Health and Performance Element (BHP) conducts and supports research to address four human health risks: Risk of Behavioral Conditions; Risk of Psychiatric Conditions; Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team; and Risk of Performance Errors due to Sleep Loss, Fatigue, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload (HRP Science Management Plan, 2008). BHP Research, in collaboration with internal and external research investigators, as well as subject matter experts within NASA operations including flight surgeons, astronauts, and mission planners and others within the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD), identifies knowledge and technology gaps within each Risk. BHP Research subsequently manages and conducts research tasks to address and close the gaps, either through risk assessment and quantification, or the development of countermeasures and monitoring technologies. The resulting deliverables, in many instances, also support current Medical Operations and/or Mission Operations for the International Space Station (ISS).

  11. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  12. Childhood leukaemia risks: from unexplained findings near nuclear installations to recommendations for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurier, D; Jacob, S; Grosche, B; Dehos, A; Hornhardt, S; Ziegelberger, G

    2014-01-01

    Recent findings related to childhood leukaemia incidence near nuclear installations have raised questions which can be answered neither by current knowledge on radiation risk nor by other established risk factors. In 2012, a workshop was organised on this topic with two objectives: (a) review of results and discussion of methodological limitations of studies near nuclear installations; (b) identification of directions for future research into the causes and pathogenesis of childhood leukaemia. The workshop gathered 42 participants from different disciplines, extending widely outside of the radiation protection field. Regarding the proximity of nuclear installations, the need for continuous surveillance of childhood leukaemia incidence was highlighted, including a better characterisation of the local population. The creation of collaborative working groups was recommended for consistency in methodologies and the possibility of combining data for future analyses. Regarding the causes of childhood leukaemia, major fields of research were discussed (environmental risk factors, genetics, infections, immunity, stem cells, experimental research). The need for multidisciplinary collaboration in developing research activities was underlined, including the prevalence of potential predisposition markers and investigating further the infectious aetiology hypothesis. Animal studies and genetic/epigenetic approaches appear of great interest. Routes for future research were pointed out. (review)

  13. Long-term future risk of severe exacerbations: Distinct 5-year trajectories of problematic asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yii, A C A; Tan, J H Y; Lapperre, T S; Chan, A K W; Low, S Y; Ong, T H; Tan, K L; Chotirmall, S H; Sterk, P J; Koh, M S

    2017-09-01

    Assessing future risk of exacerbations is an important component of asthma management. Existing studies have investigated short- but not long-term risk. Problematic asthma patients with unfavorable long-term disease trajectory and persistently frequent severe exacerbations need to be identified early to guide treatment. To identify distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates among "problematic asthma" patients and develop a risk score to predict the most unfavorable trajectory. Severe exacerbation rates over five years for 177 "problematic asthma" patients presenting to a specialist asthma clinic were tracked. Distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Baseline predictors of trajectory were identified and used to develop a clinical risk score for predicting the most unfavorable trajectory. Three distinct trajectories were found: 58.5% had rare intermittent severe exacerbations ("infrequent"), 32.0% had frequent severe exacerbations at baseline but improved subsequently ("nonpersistently frequent"), and 9.5% exhibited persistently frequent severe exacerbations, with the highest incidence of near-fatal asthma ("persistently frequent"). A clinical risk score composed of ≥2 severe exacerbations in the past year (+2 points), history of near-fatal asthma (+1 point), body mass index ≥25kg/m 2 (+1 point), obstructive sleep apnea (+1 point), gastroesophageal reflux (+1 point), and depression (+1 point) was predictive of the "persistently frequent" trajectory (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84, sensitivity 72.2%, specificity 81.1% using cutoff ≥3 points). The trajectories and clinical risk score had excellent performance in an independent validation cohort. Patients with problematic asthma follow distinct illness trajectories over a period of five years. We have derived and validated a clinical risk score that accurately identifies patients who will have persistently

  14. Prospect of future housing and risk of psychological distress at 1 year after an earthquake disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki

    2016-04-01

    Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

  15. Football Players' Perceptions of Future Risk of Concussion and Concussion-Related Health Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baugh, Christine M; Kroshus, Emily; Kiernan, Patrick T; Mendel, David; Meehan, William P

    2017-02-15

    Concussion is increasingly recognized as a risk of participation in contact and collision sports. There have been few examinations of athletes' perceptions of their susceptibility to concussion or concussion-related health consequences. We examine college football players' perceptions of their risk of sustaining a concussion and concussion-related health consequences in their future, whether these perceptions change over time, and how concussion history is related to perceived future risk of concussion and concussion-related health consequences. A survey was administered to National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Series athletes on 10 teams in 2013 and to nine of those teams in 2014. Athletes answered questions assessing their perceptions of concussion and potential concussion-related health consequences. Approximately 40% of athletes believed there was a strong possibility that they would sustain a concussion in the future, while approximately one-in-four thought a concussion would make them miss a few games. About one-in-10 athletes predicted dementia, Alzheimer's disease, or chronic traumatic encephalopathy would develop from concussions. These beliefs were stronger among athletes who had sustained previous concussions. Across the two years studied, athletes' perceptions of the risk of concussion and missing a few games because of concussion decreased significantly. Overall, a substantial proportion of college football players believe they will have long-term health consequences as a result of sustaining sport-related concussions. The true incidence and prevalence of many of these outcomes are unknown. Further research is needed to determine whether athletes have an accurate perception of the risks of these outcomes developing.

  16. Reproductive factors, menopausal hormone therapies and primary liver cancer risk: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Guo-Chao; Liu, Yan; Chen, Nan; Hao, Fa-Bao; Wang, Kang; Cheng, Jia-Hao; Gong, Jian-Ping; Ding, Xiong

    2016-12-01

    A striking gender disparity in the incidence and outcome of primary liver cancer (PLC) has been well recognized. Mounting evidence from basic research suggests that hormonal factors may be involved in the gender disparity of PLC. Whether hormonal exposures in human subjects are associated with PLC risk is largely unknown. Whether reproductive factors and use of menopausal hormone therapies (MHTs) in women are associated with PLC risk remains controversial. We conducted this study to clarify this issue. PubMed and EMBASE were searched to July, 2016 for studies published in English or Chinese. Observational studies (cohort, nested case-control and case-control) that provided risk estimates of reproductive factors, MHTs and PLC risk were eligible. The quality of included studies was determined based on the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale. Summary risk ratios (RRs) were calculated using a random-effects model. Dose-response analysis was conducted where possible. Fifteen peer-reviewed studies, involving 1795 PLC cases and 2 256 686 women, were included. Overall meta-analyses on parity and PLC risk did not find any significant associations; however, when restricting to studies with PLC cases ≥100, increasing parity was found to be significantly associated with a decreased risk of PLC [RR for the highest versus lowest parity 0.67, 95% CI 0.52, 0.88; RR for parous versus nulliparous 0.71, 95% CI 0.53, 0.94; RR per one live birth increase 0.93, 95% CI 0.88, 0.99]. A J-shaped relationship between parity and PLC risk was identified (P non-linearity  Parity is associated with PLC risk in a J-shaped dose-response pattern. Late age at menarche and ever use of MHT are associated with a reduced risk of PLC, whereas there is no association of ever use of ET and EPT, age at first birth, or spontaneous and induced abortion with PLC risk. Compared to women with no history of oophorectomy, those with a history of oophorectomy are at an increased risk of PLC. Our findings

  17. IQ, the Urban Environment, and Their Impact on Future Schizophrenia Risk in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulopoulou, Timothea; Picchioni, Marco; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Petersen, Liselotte

    2017-09-01

    Exposure to an urban environment during early life and low IQ are 2 well-established risk factors for schizophrenia. It is not known, however, how these factors might relate to one another. Data were pooled from the North Jutland regional draft board IQ assessments and the Danish Conscription Registry for men born between 1955 and 1993. Excluding those who were followed up for less than 1 year after the assessment yielded a final cohort of 153170 men of whom 578 later developed a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. We found significant effects of having an urban birth, and also experiencing an increase in urbanicity before the age of 10 years, on adult schizophrenia risk. The effect of urban birth was independent of IQ. However, there was a significant interaction between childhood changes in urbanization in the first 10 years and IQ level on the future adult schizophrenia risk. In short, those subjects who moved to more or less urban areas before their 10th birthday lost the protective effect of IQ. When thinking about adult schizophrenia risk, the critical time window of childhood sensitivity to changes in urbanization seems to be linked to IQ. Given the prediction that by 2050, over 80% of the developed world's population will live in an urban environment, this represents a major future public health issue. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

  19. Storm surges-An option for Hamburg, Germany, to mitigate expected future aggravation of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, Hans von; Goennert, Gabriele; Meine, Manfred

    2008-01-01

    Summary: Rising sea level together with regionally increased storm activity, caused by elevated and increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will in many parts of the world increase the risk of storm surges significantly. Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may mitigate the increasing risks somewhat, but the major task for regional and local stakeholders will be to prepare for appropriate adaptation. In most cases, possible strategies include intensification of coastal defense measures, in particular strengthening dykes, and adaptation to intermittent flooding. In case of Hamburg and the tidal Elbe river a third option seems to be available, which aims at mitigating storm surge risks by applying estuary engineering constructions. This option is sketched in this paper. The option has the potential to significantly reduce the expected future increases of local surge heights

  20. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  1. Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

  2. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Design Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007–2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to Somalia. Participants Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Main outcome measure Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. Results The contemporary annual PfPR2–10 map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR2–10). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%–50% PfPR2–10) and the rest as hypoendemic. Conclusion Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning. PMID:22855625

  3. Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didraga Otniel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

  4. Mapping the receptivity of malaria risk to plan the future of control in Somalia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Abdisalan Mohamed; Alegana, Victor Adagi; Patil, Anand Prabhakar; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Yusuf, Fahmi; Amran, Jamal; Snow, Robert William

    2012-01-01

    To measure the receptive risks of malaria in Somalia and compare decisions on intervention scale-up based on this map and the more widely used contemporary risk maps. Cross-sectional community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data for the period 2007-2010 corrected to a standard age range of 2 to contemporary (2010) mean PfPR(2-10) and the maximum annual mean PfPR(2-10) (receptive) from the highest predicted PfPR(2-10) value over the study period as an estimate of receptivity. Randomly sampled communities in Somalia. Randomly sampled individuals of all ages. Cartographic descriptions of malaria receptivity and contemporary risks in Somalia at the district level. The contemporary annual PfPR(2-10) map estimated that all districts (n=74) and population (n=8.4 million) in Somalia were under hypoendemic transmission (≤10% PfPR(2-10)). Of these, 23% of the districts, home to 13% of the population, were under transmission of 10%-50% PfPR(2-10)) and the rest as hypoendemic. Compared with maps of receptive risks, contemporary maps of transmission mask disparities of malaria risk necessary to prioritise and sustain future control. As malaria risk declines across Africa, efforts must be invested in measuring receptivity for efficient control planning.

  5. Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

    2016-11-01

    The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO 2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  7. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  8. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  9. Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip

    2018-03-01

    Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6-3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

  10. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  11. FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI ACCIDENT: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE ACTIONS FROM THE RISK PERSPECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOON-EON YANG

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

  12. Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: Lessons Learned and Future Actions from the Risk Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jooneon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-02-15

    The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

  13. Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

  14. The 12-lead electrocardiogram and risk of sudden death: current utility and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Kumar; Chugh, Sumeet S

    2015-10-01

    More than 100 years after it was first invented, the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) continues to occupy an important place in the diagnostic armamentarium of the practicing clinician. With the recognition of relatively rare but important clinical entities such as Wolff-Parkinson-White and the long QT syndrome, this clinical tool was firmly established as a test for assessing risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, over the past two decades the role of the ECG in risk prediction for common forms of SCD, for example in patients with coronary artery disease, has been the focus of considerable investigation. Especially in light of the limitations of current risk stratification approaches, there is a renewed focus on this broadly available and relatively inexpensive test. Various abnormalities of depolarization and repolarization on the ECG have been linked to SCD risk; however, more focused work is needed before they can be deployed in the clinical arena. The present review summarizes the current knowledge on various ECG risk markers for prediction of SCD and discusses some future directions in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Children-at-risk for poor nutrition: expanding the approach of future professionals in educational institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shor, Ron

    2011-08-01

    To examine how the subject of nutrition is being addressed in the work with children at risk of poor nutrition in educational institutions and what the barriers are which may hinder inclusion of this subject. A structured questionnaire was constructed for the purpose of this study and was implemented with 111 students in Israel who are working in their internships in educational institutions with children who are exposed to risk factors of poor nutrition (e.g., parental neglect, lack of knowledge, poverty). Participants attributed a high level of importance to integrating nutrition-related components in their work. However, the findings indicate less emphasis on nutrition-related components than on psycho-social-educational components, as well as a low level of collaboration with specialists in the area of nutrition. In addition, it was found that knowledge-based barriers and institutional-related systemic barriers may hinder future teachers' capabilities to incorporate those components despite their favorable approach towards this subject. The findings illuminate the need to reduce barriers hampering the individual work with children at risk of poor nutrition in educational institutions. In the training of future teachers, there is a need to advance a bio-psycho-social educational approach incorporating a knowledge base about assessing situations of poor nutrition, including how to advance an interdisciplinary collaboration with specialists in the area of nutrition. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Purulent vaginal discharge in grazing dairy cows: Risk factors, reproductive performance, and prostaglandin F2α treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliodori, M J; Magnasco, M; Magnasco, R P; Lacau-Mengido, I M; de la Sota, R L

    2017-05-01

    The objectives of this study were to assess the association of a 4-point scale of vaginal discharge score (VDS) with time to pregnancy to define criteria for a practical case of purulent vaginal discharge (PVD) in dairy cows, to test the risk factors for PVD, and, finally, the effect of a dose of PGF 2α on cure and reproductive performance. In experiment 1, grazing Holstein cows (n = 2,414) had their vaginal discharge scored at ∼32 d in milk (DIM) on a 4-point scale, the effect of VDS on the hazard of pregnancy by 300 DIM was then assessed to derive a case definition of PVD. Risk factors for PVD and self-cure were also assessed. In experiment 2, grazing Holstein cows (n = 6,326) from 5 herds were checked for PVD at ∼30 DIM. Cows with PVD were assigned to receive one dose of 500 μg of PGF 2α analog (Cloprostenol; Ciclase, Syntex SA, Buenos Aires, Argentina) per cow (odd ear tag number) or to remain untreated (even tag number). Cure was declared if cows presented clear normal vaginal discharge (VDS-0) at visit 2 (∼62 DIM). Data were analyzed with Cox's regression and mixed logistic models. In experiment 1, cows with VDS ≥1 had lower hazard of pregnancy and longer calving to pregnancy interval than cows with VDS-0. This finding was not affected by the time at which the diagnosis was performed. Therefore, a cow ≥21 DIM and having VDS ≥1 was used to define a case of PVD. The odds of PVD were greater in primiparous cows compared with multiparous, in cows with abnormal calving compared with those with normal calving, and in those losing BCS peripartum. In experiment 2, PGF 2α treatment tended to slightly increase the hazard of pregnancy (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.13). Conversely, PGF 2α had no effect on the odds of cure of PVD [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.19], pregnancy at first service (AOR = 1.03), or pregnancy by 100 DIM (AOR = 0.89) or 200 DIM (AOR = 1.27). In conclusion, cows with VDS ≥1 can be considered to have PVD because of their lower hazard

  17. Early menarche and teenager pregnancy as risk factors for morbid obesity among reproductive-age women: A case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Amanda Gonçalves; Kasawara, Karina Tamy; Godoy-Miranda, Ana Carolina; Oshika, Flávio Hideki; Chaim, Elinton Adami; Surita, Fernanda Garanhani

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate potential risk factors, including non-communicable diseases, for morbid obesity in women between 20 and 49 years of age. We performed a case-control study with 110 morbidly obese women and 110 women with adequate weight who were matched by age and with a 1:1 case to control ratio. All women were between 20 to 49 years old and non-menopausal. Possible risk factors were evaluated through a self-report questionnaire assessing socio-demographic, obstetric and gynecological characteristics, presence of non-communicable diseases and habits. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio with respective confidence intervals. Menarche under 12 years old, teenage pregnancy and lower educational level were shown to be risk factors for morbid obesity among women of reproductive age. Incidences of non-communicable diseases (diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, liver disease, lung disease, thyroid dysfunction, and joint pain) were increased in women with morbid obesity. Early menarche, teenage pregnancy and low education level are risk factors for the occurrence of morbid obesity in women of reproductive age. Some non-communicable diseases were already more prevalent in women with morbid obesity even before 50 years of age.

  18. Reproductive Hazards Still Persist in the Microelectronics Industry: Increased Risk of Spontaneous Abortion and Menstrual Aberration among Female Workers in the Microelectronics Industry in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Inah; Kim, Myoung-Hee; Lim, Sinye

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Despite the global expansion of supply chains and changes to the production process, few studies since the mid-1990s and 2000s have examined reproductive risks of the microelectronics industry; we examined the reproductive risks among female microelectronics workers in South Korea. Methods Based on claim data from the National Health Insurance (2008–2012), we estimated age-specific rates of spontaneous abortion (SAB) and menstrual aberration (MA) among women aged 20 to 39 years. We compared data between microelectronics workers and three different control groups: economically inactive women, the working population as a whole, and workers employed in the bank industry. For an effect measure, age-stratified relative risks (RRs) were estimated. Results Female workers in the microelectronics industry showed significantly higher risk for SAB and MA compared to control groups. The RRs for SAB with reference to economically inactive women, working population, and bank workers in their twenties were 1.57, 1.40, and 1.37, respectively, and the RRs for MA among females in their twenties were 1.54, 1.38, and 1.48, respectively. For women in their thirties, RRs for SAB were 1.58, 1.67, and 1.13, and those for MA were 1.25, 1.35, and 1.23 compared to the three control populations, respectively. All RRs were statistically significant at a level of 0.05, except for the SAB case comparison with bank workers in their thirties. Conclusions Despite technical innovations and health and safety measures, female workers in microelectronics industry in South Korea have high rates of SAB and MA, suggesting continued exposure to reproductive hazards. Further etiologic studies based on primary data collection and careful surveillance are required to confirm these results. PMID:25938673

  19. Reproductive Hazards Still Persist in the Microelectronics Industry: Increased Risk of Spontaneous Abortion and Menstrual Aberration among Female Workers in the Microelectronics Industry in South Korea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inah Kim

    Full Text Available Despite the global expansion of supply chains and changes to the production process, few studies since the mid-1990 s and 2000s have examined reproductive risks of the microelectronics industry; we examined the reproductive risks among female microelectronics workers in South Korea.Based on claim data from the National Health Insurance (2008-2012, we estimated age-specific rates of spontaneous abortion (SAB and menstrual aberration (MA among women aged 20 to 39 years. We compared data between microelectronics workers and three different control groups: economically inactive women, the working population as a whole, and workers employed in the bank industry. For an effect measure, age-stratified relative risks (RRs were estimated.Female workers in the microelectronics industry showed significantly higher risk for SAB and MA compared to control groups. The RRs for SAB with reference to economically inactive women, working population, and bank workers in their twenties were 1.57, 1.40, and 1.37, respectively, and the RRs for MA among females in their twenties were 1.54, 1.38, and 1.48, respectively. For women in their thirties, RRs for SAB were 1.58, 1.67, and 1.13, and those for MA were 1.25, 1.35, and 1.23 compared to the three control populations, respectively. All RRs were statistically significant at a level of 0.05, except for the SAB case comparison with bank workers in their thirties.Despite technical innovations and health and safety measures, female workers in microelectronics industry in South Korea have high rates of SAB and MA, suggesting continued exposure to reproductive hazards. Further etiologic studies based on primary data collection and careful surveillance are required to confirm these results.

  20. Reproductive Hazards Still Persist in the Microelectronics Industry: Increased Risk of Spontaneous Abortion and Menstrual Aberration among Female Workers in the Microelectronics Industry in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Inah; Kim, Myoung-Hee; Lim, Sinye

    2015-01-01

    Despite the global expansion of supply chains and changes to the production process, few studies since the mid-1990 s and 2000s have examined reproductive risks of the microelectronics industry; we examined the reproductive risks among female microelectronics workers in South Korea. Based on claim data from the National Health Insurance (2008-2012), we estimated age-specific rates of spontaneous abortion (SAB) and menstrual aberration (MA) among women aged 20 to 39 years. We compared data between microelectronics workers and three different control groups: economically inactive women, the working population as a whole, and workers employed in the bank industry. For an effect measure, age-stratified relative risks (RRs) were estimated. Female workers in the microelectronics industry showed significantly higher risk for SAB and MA compared to control groups. The RRs for SAB with reference to economically inactive women, working population, and bank workers in their twenties were 1.57, 1.40, and 1.37, respectively, and the RRs for MA among females in their twenties were 1.54, 1.38, and 1.48, respectively. For women in their thirties, RRs for SAB were 1.58, 1.67, and 1.13, and those for MA were 1.25, 1.35, and 1.23 compared to the three control populations, respectively. All RRs were statistically significant at a level of 0.05, except for the SAB case comparison with bank workers in their thirties. Despite technical innovations and health and safety measures, female workers in microelectronics industry in South Korea have high rates of SAB and MA, suggesting continued exposure to reproductive hazards. Further etiologic studies based on primary data collection and careful surveillance are required to confirm these results.

  1. Reproductive strategies in snakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shine, Richard

    2003-05-22

    Snakes of both sexes display remarkable flexibility and diversity in their reproductive tactics. Many features of reproduction in female snakes (such as reproductive mode and frequency, seasonality and multiple mating) allow flexible maternal control. For example, females can manipulate not only the genotypes of their offspring (through mate choice or enhanced sperm competition) but also the phenotypes of their offspring (through allocation 'decisions', behavioural and physiological thermoregulation, and nest-site selection). Reliance on stored energy ('capital') to fuel breeding results in low frequencies of female reproduction and, in extreme cases, semelparity. A sophisticated vomeronasal system not only allows male snakes to locate reproductive females by following scent trails, but also facilitates pheromonally mediated mate choice by males. Male-male rivalry takes diverse forms, including female mimicry and mate guarding; combat bouts impose strong selection for large body size in males of some species. Intraspecific (geographical) variation and phenotypic plasticity in a wide array of reproductive traits (offspring size and number; reproductive frequency; incidence of multiple mating; male tactics such as mate guarding and combat; mate choice criteria) provide exceptional opportunities for future studies.

  2. Current products and future plan of regulatory research for risk-informed regulation in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Key Yong; Lee, Chang Ju; Kim, Woong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

    2003-01-01

    The first phase of a regulatory research project for risk-informed regulation (RIR) and applications (RIA) was finished in March of 2002. Various results that could be useful for preparing Korean RIR system have been developed. One of the remarkable outputs is development of reactor safety goals and acceptance criteria for RIR and RIA in Korea. The Safety Goal has a 4-tier hierarchical structure and each tier has specified goals classified for their usage. Regulatory review guides for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) including level-1, level-2 and low power and shutdown PSA have been updated by reflecting new information obtained from not only the overseas documents but also experience and insights from regulatory review in Korea. In addition, draft regulatory guides for risk-informed in-service inspection, in-service testing, importance ranking of motor-operated valves, and AOT/STI change of Technical Specifications have been developed for preparing ongoing and future licensing work. Risk-based inspection guides with inspection items selected from a viewpoint of risk importance have been suggested for Korean standard NPPs as well. In the second phase of a research project (April of 2002 to March of 2005), two regulatory research projects on RIR were initiated. One is a study on institutionalization of risk-informed and performance-based regulation. Main topics of this project are evaluation of benefit and characteristics of RIR, development of optimized Korean RIR model, impact analysis for the change of current regulation framework, and suggestion of RIR-related laws and rules. The other is focusing on the development in the areas of a regulatory audit PSA model and regulatory guides for risk monitoring, and application techniques of risk information to the significance determination of plant performance indicators and inspection findings. It is expected that a concrete scheme and detailed regulatory techniques for embodiment of RIR system in Korea will be

  3. Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

    2012-04-01

    Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

  4. Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Li, X.; Turner, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations The need for highly improved space weather modeling and monitoring is quickly becoming imperative as our society depends ever more on the sensitive technology that builds and connects our world. Instead of relying primarily on tried and true concepts, academic institutions and funding agencies alike should be focusing on truly new and innovative ways to solve this pressing problem. In this exciting time, where student-led groups can launch CubeSats for under a million dollars and companies like SpaceX are actively reducing the cost-cap of access to space, the space physics community should be pushing the boundaries of what is possible to enhance our understanding of the space environment. Taking great risks in instrumentation, mission concepts, operational development, collaborations, and scientific research is the best way to move our field forward to where it needs to be for the betterment of science and society.

  5. Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

    2017-12-01

    Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be

  6. Future regulatory research needs on risk-informed and performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Wong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

    2004-01-01

    The USNRC has pursued the incorporation of risk-informed and performance-based regulation (RIPBR) into nuclear safety regulatory system, as an alternative to improve existing nuclear safety regulation of nuclear power plants, which is deterministic and prescriptive. It focuses on the use of risk insight from probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Recently, it becomes necessary to find a way to improve regulatory efficiency and effectiveness in order to cover the increasing regulatory needs in Korea. Also, the utility has optimized design and operation of the plant using PSA insight and equipment performance information. According to the increase of the necessity for regulatory improvement using risk and performance information, KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) is developing, as a part of a mid and long-term project of Nuclear R and D program, how to adopt the RIPBR in Korean nuclear regulatory system. As the interim results, three basic directions and several principles that are necessary to implement RIPBR model were already identified from the previous study. This paper suggests a direction to future regulatory research on RIPBR based on the previous studies including the review of international trend of RIPBR and the evaluation of risk-informed regulatory environment

  7. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  8. Cardiorespiratory fitness and future risk of pneumonia: a long-term prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunutsor, Setor K; Laukkanen, Tanjaniina; Laukkanen, Jari A

    2017-09-01

    We aimed to assess the prospective association of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) with the risk of pneumonia. Cardiorespiratory fitness, as measured by maximal oxygen uptake, was assessed using a respiratory gas exchange analyzer in 2244 middle-aged men in the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease cohort. We corrected for within-person variability in CRF levels using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart. During a median follow-up of 25.8 years, 369 men received a hospital diagnosis of pneumonia. The age-adjusted regression dilution ratio of CRF was 0.58 (95% confidence interval: 0.53-0.63). Cardiorespiratory fitness was linearly associated with pneumonia risk. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for pneumonia per 1 standard deviation increase in CRF in analysis adjusted for several risk factors for pneumonia was 0.77 (0.68-0.87). The association remained consistent on additional adjustment for total energy intake, socioeconomic status, physical activity, and C-reactive protein 0.82 (0.72-0.94). The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.58 (0.41-0.80) and 0.67 (0.48-0.95) respectively, when comparing the extreme quartiles of CRF levels. Our findings indicate a graded inverse and independent association between CRF and the future risk of pneumonia in a general male population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The analysis of return on speculative trading with futures contracts of agriculture commodities in the context of the currency risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Šoba

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on analysis of return on speculative operations with futures contracts from the view of participators not undertaking and undertaking the currency risk. The currency risk is determined by unexpected change of relevant exchange rate (currency denomination of futures contracts / domestic currency of participator. The paper analyses the basic factors influencing the profitability of these operations such as relative change of futures contract value, leverage incidence and relative change of relevant exchange rate. The paper is focused on futures contracts of the world most important agricultural commodities. The conclusion of the paper for participators not undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of futures contract is main factor for the calculation of return on speculative operation. This change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally. The conclusion of the paper for participators undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of relevant exchange rate is not usually relevant for the calculation of return on speculative operation. Main factor is the relative change of futures contract because this change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally but the relative change of relevant exchange rate isn’t.Neverthless the conclusions of this paper are not valid only for futures contracts of agricultural commodities but generally also for other commodity futures contracts and futures contracts where underlying assets are not commodities but for example financial assets.

  10. The Prevalence, Subtypes and Obstetric Risk Factors of Urinary Incontinence in Reproductive Age Women Referred to Community Health Care Centers of Dezful, Iran- 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roghaye Komeilifar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Urinary incontinence (UI is a common health problem and has a profound effect on the quality of life and psychosocial aspects of the affected women. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of UI in reproductive age women. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 2000 reproductive age women from February to June 2015. The women were selected from all of the primary health care centers of Dezful, using easy access sampling method. Body mass index (BMI was measured and data were collected by demographic, detailed information regarding obstetric and International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire- Urinary incontinence – Short Form(ICIQ-SF ICIQ-SF questionnaires. Results: The women’s mean age was 33.6±8, and 57.7% (1154 of them reported UI. The prevalence of UI subtypes was recorded in 38.2% (441 stress UI (SUI, 44.9% (518 mixed UI, and 16.9% (195 urge UI. There was a significant association between the mean of pregnancies, mean of deliveries, mode of delivery, abortion, neonate>4 kg, irregular menstruation and UI (P<0.05. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that age, irregular menstruation and vaginal delivery increased the risk of UI in this age group. Conclusion: The findings suggest that a significant proportion of reproductive age women were undiagnosed with UI and MUI was the most common type of UI in this age group. Regular menstruation was a protective factor but older age and vaginal delivery were risk factors for UI in this study.

  11. Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan eZhang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

  12. Temporal Relationship Between Hyperuricemia and Insulin Resistance and Its Impact on Future Risk of Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Tianshu; Lan, Li; Qu, Rongge; Xu, Qian; Jiang, Ruyue; Na, Lixin; Sun, Changhao

    2017-10-01

    Although hyperuricemia and insulin resistance significantly correlated, their temporal sequence and how the sequence influence on future risk of hypertension are largely unknown. This study assessed temporal relationship between uric acid and insulin resistance and its impact on future risk of hypertension by examining a longitudinal cohort including 8543 subjects aged 20 to 74 years from China, with an average follow-up of 5.3 years. Measurements of fasting uric acid, as well as fasting and 2-hour serum glucose and insulin, were obtained at baseline and follow-up. Indicators of hepatic and peripheral insulin resistance were calculated. Cross-lagged panel and mediation analysis were used to examine the temporal relationship between uric acid and insulin resistance and its impact on follow-up hypertension. After adjusting for covariates, the cross-lagged path coefficients ( β 1 values) from baseline uric acid to follow-up insulin resistance indices were significantly greater than path coefficients ( β 2 values) from baseline insulin resistance indices to follow-up uric acid ( β 1 =0.110 versus β 2 =0.017; P hypertensive group were significantly greater than that in the normotensive group ( P hypertension, and the mediation effect of peripheral insulin resistance was significantly greater than that of hepatic insulin resistance (31.3% versus 13.2%; P hypertension than hepatic insulin resistance does. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. The insecticide lindane. Identification of possible risks for human reproduction; L'insetticida lindano. Identificazione dei rischi possibili per la riproduzione umana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traina, M E; Urbani, E [Istituto Superiore di Sanita' , Lab. di Igiene Ambientale, Rome (Italy); Rescia, M; Mantovani, A [Istituto Superiore di Sanita' , Lab. di Tossicologia Comparata e Ecotossicologia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    A growing international concern exists about the potential harm to human reproduction caused by pollutants able to interfere with the endocrine system. Particular interest is addressed to organochlorine pesticides persisting in the environment and organisms; such compounds are extensively studied for their adverse effects on reproductive functions and development of laboratory animals. The insecticide lindane (the {gamma}-isomer of hexachlorocyclohexane), widely used before the 80s, has yet to be adequately evaluated as regards the possible reproductive risk. The present report contains a critical revision of the available scientific literature about lindane effects on the male and female reproductive system, pregnancy and development. Besides, the possible higher exposure periods to this pesticide (years 60s-70s) have been determined through the analysis of the lindane products consumed and the evaluation of the active ingredient levels in the environment and in the tissues and biological fluids, with particular regard to Italy. The present review aims at supporting further toxicological and epidemiological studies to assess the possible reproductive risk posed by environmental and professional exposure to chlorinated insecticides. [Italian] L'ipotesi che l'esposizione a sostanze inquinanti in grado di alterare l'equilibrio del sistema endocrino possa avere effetti sulla riproduzione umana e sullo sviluppo e' attualmente oggetto d'interesse nella comunita' scientifica. Particoalre attenzione e' stata indirizzata ai pesticidi organoclorurati a lunga persistenza nell'ambiente e negli organismi, per i quali esistono numerose evidenze di effetti nocivi per la riproduzione, negli studi di tossicologia sperimentale. L'insetticida lindano (l'isomero-{gamma} dell'esaclorocicloesano), largamente utilizzato prima degli anni '80, non e' stato fino ad oggi adeguatamente valutato per un possibile rischio riproduttivo a lungo termine. In questa rassegna e' stata pertanto

  14. The insecticide lindane. Identification of possible risks for human reproduction; L'insetticida lindano. Identificazione dei rischi possibili per la riproduzione umana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traina, M.E.; Urbani, E. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita' , Lab. di Igiene Ambientale, Rome (Italy); Rescia, M.; Mantovani, A. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita' , Lab. di Tossicologia Comparata e Ecotossicologia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    A growing international concern exists about the potential harm to human reproduction caused by pollutants able to interfere with the endocrine system. Particular interest is addressed to organochlorine pesticides persisting in the environment and organisms; such compounds are extensively studied for their adverse effects on reproductive functions and development of laboratory animals. The insecticide lindane (the {gamma}-isomer of hexachlorocyclohexane), widely used before the 80s, has yet to be adequately evaluated as regards the possible reproductive risk. The present report contains a critical revision of the available scientific literature about lindane effects on the male and female reproductive system, pregnancy and development. Besides, the possible higher exposure periods to this pesticide (years 60s-70s) have been determined through the analysis of the lindane products consumed and the evaluation of the active ingredient levels in the environment and in the tissues and biological fluids, with particular regard to Italy. The present review aims at supporting further toxicological and epidemiological studies to assess the possible reproductive risk posed by environmental and professional exposure to chlorinated insecticides. [Italian] L'ipotesi che l'esposizione a sostanze inquinanti in grado di alterare l'equilibrio del sistema endocrino possa avere effetti sulla riproduzione umana e sullo sviluppo e' attualmente oggetto d'interesse nella comunita' scientifica. Particoalre attenzione e' stata indirizzata ai pesticidi organoclorurati a lunga persistenza nell'ambiente e negli organismi, per i quali esistono numerose evidenze di effetti nocivi per la riproduzione, negli studi di tossicologia sperimentale. L'insetticida lindano (l'isomero-{gamma} dell'esaclorocicloesano), largamente utilizzato prima degli anni '80, non e' stato fino ad oggi adeguatamente valutato per un possibile rischio

  15. Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisa, Paul C.

    Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and

  16. Investigating Climate Change and Reproduction: Experimental Tools from Evolutionary Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Y. Martin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available It is now generally acknowledged that climate change has wide-ranging biological consequences, potentially leading to impacts on biodiversity. Environmental factors can have diverse and often strong effects on reproduction, with obvious ramifications for population fitness. Nevertheless, reproductive traits are often neglected in conservation considerations. Focusing on animals, recent progress in sexual selection and sexual conflict research suggests that reproductive costs may pose an underestimated hurdle during rapid climate change, potentially lowering adaptive potential and increasing extinction risk of certain populations. Nevertheless, regime shifts may have both negative and positive effects on reproduction, so it is important to acquire detailed experimental data. We hence present an overview of the literature reporting short-term reproductive consequences of exposure to different environmental factors. From the enormous diversity of findings, we conclude that climate change research could benefit greatly from more coordinated efforts incorporating evolutionary approaches in order to obtain cross-comparable data on how individual and population reproductive fitness respond in the long term. Therefore, we propose ideas and methods concerning future efforts dealing with reproductive consequences of climate change, in particular by highlighting the advantages of multi-generational experimental evolution experiments.

  17. Past and future drivers of increased erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We use hourly observations of water levels from two tide gauges and wave data from three buoys to assess their relative contribution to past and potential future changes in the erosion risk for Dauphin Island, a barrier island located off the coastline of Alabama. Topographic information (i.e. beach slopes and dune toe and crest heights) is obtained from the most recent lidar survey conducted in the area in July 2013. Water levels and wave parameters (i.e. significant wave height and peak period) from the two tide gauges and three wave buoys are merged into single records spanning the period from 1981 to 2013. The Stockdon et al. (2006) run-up model is used to estimate the 2% exceedance values of wave run-up maxima, which are then combined with the observed water levels at the representative tide gauge site to obtain total water levels (TWLs). With this information we assess the relative contribution of geocentric sea level rise, vertical land-movement, and long-term changes in the wave parameters to the observed increase in erosion risk. The latter is approximated using the concept of impact hours per year (IHPY; Ruggiero 2013) at dune toe and dune crest elevation thresholds derived from the lidar data. Wahl et al. (2014) recently discovered a significant increase in the amplitude of the seasonal sea level cycle in the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we explore the potential of these changes, and similar developments in the seasonal cycle of the wave data and corresponding IHPY, to affect coastal erosion. Such intra-annual signals with longer-term variations have not been included in most earlier studies in favour of analysing the effects of annually averaged long-term trends. Finally, scenarios of potential future changes of all relevant parameters are used to explore their relative contribution to further increase in the coastal erosion risk over the next few decades.

  18. Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

  19. Fish reproduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rocha, Maria João; Arukwe, Augustine; Kapoor, B. G

    2008-01-01

    ... of reproductive systems is essential for such studies. Fishes comprise over 28,000 species, with a remarkable variability in morphology, physiology and environmental adaptation. Knowledge on fish reproduction is scattered across numerous sources that shows a dynamic research field. The Editors believe it to be an opportune moment for a...

  20. ARV robotic technologies (ART): a risk reduction effort for future unmanned systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaster, Jeffrey F.

    2006-05-01

    The Army's ARV (Armed Robotic Vehicle) Robotic Technologies (ART) program is working on the development of various technological thrusts for use in the robotic forces of the future. The ART program will develop, integrate and demonstrate the technology required to advance the maneuver technologies (i.e., perception, mobility, tactical behaviors) and increase the survivability of unmanned platforms for the future force while focusing on reducing the soldiers' burden by providing an increase in vehicle autonomy coinciding with a decrease in the total number user interventions required to control the unmanned assets. This program will advance the state of the art in perception technologies to provide the unmanned platform an increasingly accurate view of the terrain that surrounds it; while developing tactical/mission behavior technologies to provide the Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) the capability to maneuver tactically, in conjunction with the manned systems in an autonomous mode. The ART testbed will be integrated with the advanced technology software and associated hardware developed under this effort, and incorporate appropriate mission modules (e.g. RSTA sensors, MILES, etc.) to support Warfighter experiments and evaluations (virtual and field) in a military significant environment (open/rolling and complex/urban terrain). The outcome of these experiments as well as other lessons learned through out the program life cycle will be used to reduce the current risks that are identified for the future UGV systems that will be developed under the Future Combat Systems (FCS) program, including the early integration of an FCS-like autonomous navigation system onto a tracked skid steer platform.

  1. Potential of building-scale alternative energy to alleviate risk from the future price of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bristow, David; Kennedy, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    The energy used for building operations, the associated greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertainties in future price of natural gas and electricity can be a cause of concern for building owners and policy makers. In this work we explore the potential of building-scale alternative energy technologies to reduce demand and emissions while also shielding building owners from the risks associated with fluctuations in the price of natural gas and grid electricity. We analyze the monetary costs and benefits over the life cycle of five technologies (photovoltaic and wind electricity generation, solar air and water heating, and ground source heat pumps) over three audience or building types (homeowners, small businesses, large commercial and institutional entities). The analysis includes a Monte Carlo analysis to measure risk that can be compared to other investment opportunities. The results indicate that under government incentives and climate of Toronto, Canada, the returns are relatively high for small degrees of risks for a number of technologies. Ground source heat pumps prove to be exceptionally good investments in terms of their energy savings, emission, reductions, and economics, while the bigger buildings tend also to be better economic choices for the use of these technologies.

  2. Mapping eutrophication risk from climate change: Future phosphorus concentrations in English rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Matthew B; Bowes, Michael J; Hutchins, Michael G; Orr, Harriet G; Soley, Rob; Davison, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is expected to increase eutrophication risk in rivers yet few studies identify the timescale or spatial extent of such impacts. Phosphorus concentration, considered the primary driver of eutrophication risk in English rivers, may increase through reduced dilution particularly if river flows are lower in summer. Detailed models can indicate change in catchment phosphorus concentrations but targeted support for mitigation measures requires a national scale evaluation of risk. In this study, a load apportionment model is used to describe the current relationship between flow and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) at 115 river sites across England. These relationships are used to estimate TRP concentrations for the 2050s under 11 climate change driven scenarios of future river flows and under scenarios of both current and higher levels of sewage treatment. National maps of change indicate a small but inconsistent increase in annual average TRP concentrations with a greater change in summer. Reducing the TRP concentration of final sewage effluent to 0.5mg/L P for all upstream sewage treatment works was inadequate to meet existing P standards required through the EU Water Framework Directive, indicating that more needs to be done, including efforts to reduce diffuse pollution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The prevalence of malnutrition and its associated risk factors among women of reproductive age in Ziway Dugda district, Arsi Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferede, Abebe; Lemessa, Firaol; Tafa, Mesfin; Sisay, Solomon

    2017-11-01

    Adequate nutrition is an important factor to determine the health and well-being of women, children and society as a whole. Although various nutritional policies were formulated and aimed at reducing malnutrition at the global level, the magnitude of malnutrition (body mass index [BMI] malnutrition and to identify the associated risk factors among women of reproductive age. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Ziway Dugda district in Ethiopia among 430 women of reproductive age between September 20 and November 21, 2015. A systematic sampling method was used to select the study participants. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to determine the prevalence of malnutrition and to identify associated independent risk factors such as women's age, housing conditions, drinking water sources, habits of hand washing, dietary intake and food insecurity. The mean values of weight, height and BMI of the study participants were 51 kg, 157 cm and 18.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. Prevalence of malnutrition (BMI malnutrition among women of the same age group compared to women from food secured households. A high prevalence of malnutrition (48.6%) was observed among women of reproductive age. Although nutrient-rich foods were available, their consumption appears insufficient. Hence, it is strongly recommended to have behavioural change communication for enhancing adequate intake of a diversified diet and to promote environmental and hygienic conditions of women through improving their socio-economic status. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Environmental impacts on reproductive health and fertility

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodruff, T. J

    2010-01-01

    .... Focusing on exposures to environmental contaminants, particularly during critical periods in development and their potential effects on all aspects of future reproductive life-course, this book...

  5. Characteristics in childhood and adolescence associated with future multiple sclerosis risk in men: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnarsson, M; Udumyan, R; Bahmanyar, S; Nilsagård, Y; Montgomery, S

    2015-07-01

    Associations with multiple sclerosis (MS) of living conditions in childhood and characteristics in adolescence including physical fitness, cognitive function and psychological stress resilience were investigated. A cohort of male Swedish residents born 1952-1956 who were included in the Swedish Military Conscription Register was used to create a nested case-control study comprising 628 MS cases and 6187 controls matched on birth year, county of residence and vital status at time of diagnosis. Conscription examination records were linked with other national register data. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate associations with MS subsequent to the conscription examination. Men with MS were less likely to be from more crowded households in childhood (>two persons per room) with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.51-0.86, P = 0.023). They had lower physical working capacity in adolescence with adjusted odds ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.89-0.99, P = 0.026). Cognitive function and stress resilience scores displayed no significant differences between cases and controls. Parental occupation in childhood and body mass index in adolescence were not associated with future MS risk. The inverse association of MS risk with higher levels of household crowding may reflect environmental factors such as the pattern of exposure to microorganisms. Lower physical fitness in men at MS risk may indicate a protective effect of exercise or could be due to prodromal disease activity, although there was no association with cognitive function. Poor psychological stress resilience (and thus risk of chronic stress arousal) was not associated with MS. © 2015 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology.

  6. Postprandial Metabolism of Macronutrients and Cardiometabolic Risk: Recent Developments, Emerging Concepts, and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacome-Sosa, Miriam; Parks, Elizabeth J; Bruno, Richard S; Tasali, Esra; Lewis, Gary F; Schneeman, Barbara O; Rains, Tia M

    2016-03-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. Although the role of habitual lifestyle factors such as physical activity and dietary patterns in increasing CVD risk has long been appreciated, less is known about how acute daily activities may cumulatively contribute to long-term disease risk. Here, the term acute refers to metabolic responses occurring in a short period of time after eating, and the goal of this article is to review recently identified stressors that can occur after meals and during the sleep-wake cycle to affect macronutrient metabolism. It is hypothesized that these events, when repeated on a regular basis, contribute to the observed long-term behavioral risks identified in population studies. In this regard, developments in research methods have supported key advancements in 3 fields of macronutrient metabolism. The first of these research areas is the focus on the immediate postmeal metabolism, spanning from early intestinal adsorptive events to the impact of incretin hormones on these events. The second topic is a focus on the importance of meal components on postprandial vasculature function. Finally, some of the most exciting advances are being made in understanding dysregulation in metabolism early in the day, due to insufficient sleep, that may affect subsequent processing of nutrients throughout the day. Key future research questions are highlighted which will lead to a better understanding of the relations between nocturnal, basal (fasting), and early postmeal events, and aid in the development of optimal sleep and targeted dietary patterns to reduce cardiometabolic risk. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  7. Risk assessment of postpartum uterine disease and consequences of puerperal metritis for subsequent metabolic status, reproduction and milk yield in dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konyves, László; Szenci, Ottó; Jurkovich, Viktor; Tegzes, Lászlóné; Tirián, Attila; Solymosi, Norbert; Gyulay, Gyula; Brydl, Endre

    2009-03-01

    The objective of this study was to determine some metabolic and other factors predicting the risk of postpartum uterine disease (PUD), and the effects of puerperal metritis (PM) on metabolic status, reproduction and milk yield were analysed. A total of 105 Holstein-Friesian cows were included, and sampled on day metabolic tests. From day 4 the development of PUD, and from days 28-35 the ovarian activity was monitored. When grade > or = 1 + ketonuria was present on day 4 postpartum, this indicated a higher probability of PUD [odds ratio (OR) 2.64; P 0.200 mmol/l on days diseases (OR: 3.44; P or = 1.0 occurred between days cows with retained placenta. The risk of uterine diseases was lower in multiparous than in primiparous cows (OR: 0.29; P Cows affected with PM (PM+ cows) showed lower milk production on day 4 (kg; P cows.

  8. The radioactive risk - the future of radionuclides in the environment and their impacts on health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amiard, Jean-Claude

    2013-01-01

    This document contains a brief presentation and the table of contents of a book in which the author proposes a large synthesis of present knowledge on main radioactive pollutants (uranium, transuranic elements, caesium, strontium, iodine, tritium, carbon radioactive isotopes, and so on), their behaviour and their future in the various physical components of the environment and living organisms (including mankind). He presents the fundamentals of nuclear physics and chemistry, as well as their applications in different fields (military, energy, medicine, industry, etc.). He also addresses the important ecological and genetic notions, and recalls the anthropogenic origins of radionuclides in the environment: principles of radio-ecology, main radioactive risks, main drawbacks of the use of nuclear energy (wastes and their management), and nuclear accidents and their impact

  9. Future Challenges in Managing Human Health and Performance Risks for Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, Barbara J.; Barratt, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The global economy forces many nations to consider their national investments and make difficult decisions regarding their investment in future exploration. To enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration, we must pool global resources to understand and mitigate human health & performance risks prior to embarking on human exploration of deep space destinations. Consensus on the largest risks to humans during exploration is required to develop an integrated approach to mitigating risks. International collaboration in human space flight research will focus research on characterizing the effects of spaceflight on humans and the development of countermeasures or systems. Sharing existing data internationally will facilitate high quality research and sufficient power to make sound recommendations. Efficient utilization of ISS and unique ground-based analog facilities allows greater progress. Finally, a means to share results of human research in time to influence decisions for follow-on research, system design, new countermeasures and medical practices should be developed. Although formidable barriers to overcome, International working groups are working to define the risks, establish international research opportunities, share data among partners, share flight hardware and unique analog facilities, and establish forums for timely exchange of results. Representatives from the ISS partnership research and medical communities developed a list of the top ten human health & performance risks and their impact on exploration missions. They also drafted a multilateral data sharing plan to establish guidelines and principles for sharing human spaceflight data. Other working groups are also developing methods to promote international research solicitations. Collaborative use of analog facilities and shared development of space flight research and medical hardware continues. Establishing a forum for exchange of results between researchers, aerospace physicians

  10. Change in circulating microRNA profile of obese children indicates future risk of adult diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xianwei; You, Lianghui; Zhu, Lijun; Wang, Xing; Zhou, Yahui; Li, Yun; Wen, Juan; Xia, Yankai; Wang, Xinru; Ji, Chenbo; Guo, Xirong

    2018-01-01

    Childhood obesity increases susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adults. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) in serum have been proposed as potential diagnostic biomarkers, and they may contribute to the progression toward T2D. Here, we investigated the possibility of predicting the future risk of adult T2D in obese children by using circulating miRNAs. We performed miRNA high-throughput sequencing to screen relevant circulating miRNAs in obese children. The expression patterns of targeted miRNAs were further explored in obese children and adults with T2D. To investigate the underlying contributions of these miRNAs to the development of T2D, we detected the impacts of the candidate miRNAs on preadipocyte proliferation, insulin secretion by pancreatic β-cell, and glucose uptake by skeletal muscle cells. Three miRNAs (miR-486, miR-146b and miR-15b), whose expression in the circulation was most dramatically augmented in obese children and adult T2D patients, were selected for further investigation. Of these 3 miRNAs, miR-486 was implicated in accelerating preadipocyte proliferation and myotube glucose intolerance, miR-146b and miR-15b were engaged in the suppression of high concentration glucose-induced pancreatic insulin secretion, and they all contributed to the pathological processes of obesity and T2D. Our results provide a better understanding of the role of circulating miRNAs, particularly miR-486, miR-146b and miR-15b, in predicting the future risk of T2D in obese children. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Insulin Secretion and Risk for Future Diabetes in Subjects with a Nonpositive Insulinogenic Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daisuke Aono

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To characterize subjects with a nonpositive insulinogenic index and longitudinally observe changes in their glucose tolerance. Subjects and Methods. A historical cohort study was conducted using data from the medical checkups of public school workers. Indices of insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity derived from oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT and the incidences of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT were compared among subgroups of subjects with different insulinogenic index (change in insulin/change in glucose over the first 30 min on the OGTT. Results. Of the 1464 nondiabetic subjects at baseline, 72 (4.9% subjects had a nonpositive insulinogenic index: 42 of those subjects had a nonpositive glucose response (ΔGlu0–30 ≤ 0 and 30 had a nonpositive insulin response (ΔIns0–30 ≤ 0. Compared with subjects who had normal glucose tolerance (NGT with insulinogenic index ≥ 0.4, subjects with a nonpositive glucose response had a higher first-phase Stumvoll and lower incidences of diabetes and IGT based on a log-rank test (p<0.05, whereas subjects with a nonpositive insulin response had lower indices of insulin secretion and a higher incidence of diabetes (p<0.05. Conclusions. These results demonstrate that in the first 30 min on the OGTT, subjects with a nonpositive insulinogenic index due to a nonpositive glucose response (ΔGlu0–30 ≤ 0 had a lower risk for future diabetes and that subjects with nonpositive insulin response (ΔIns0–30 ≤ 0 had a higher risk for future one.

  12. US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierkandt, R; Levermann, A; Auffhammer, M

    2015-01-01

    Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible. (letter)

  13. Recognizing and reporting vertebral fractures: reducing the risk of future osteoporotic fractures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentle, B.C.; Brown, J.P.; Khan, A.

    2007-01-01

    Given the increasing evidence that vertebral fractures are underdiagnosed and not acted on, Osteoporosis Canada and the Canadian Association of Radiologists initiated a project to develop and publish a set of recommendations to promote and facilitate the diagnosis and reporting of vertebral fractures. The identification of spinal fractures is not uniform. More than 65% of vertebral fractures cause no symptoms. It is also apparent that vertebral fractures are inadequately recognized when the opportunity for diagnosis arises fortuitously. It is to patients' benefit that radiologists report vertebral fractures evident on a chest or other radiograph, no matter how incidental to the immediate clinical indication for the examination. The present recommendations can help to close the gap in care in recognizing and treating vertebral fractures, to prevent future fractures and thus reduce the burden of osteoporosis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as fracture-related costs to the health care system. Several studies indicate that a gap exists in regard to the diagnosis of vertebral fractures and the clinical response following such diagnosis. All recommendations presented here are based on consensus. These recommendations were developed by a multidisciplinary working group under the auspices of the Scientific Advisory Council of Osteoporosis Canada and the Canadian Association of Radiologists. Prevalent vertebral fractures have important clinical implications in terms of future fracture risk. Recognizing and reporting fractures incidental to radiologic examinations done for other reasons has the potential to reduce health care costs by initiating further steps in osteoporosis diagnosis and appropriate therapy. Physicians should be aware of the importance of vertebral fracture diagnosis in assessing future osteoporotic fracture risk. Vertebral fractures incidental to radiologic examinations done for other reasons should be identified and reported. Vertebral fractures

  14. The effects of purchasing alcohol and marijuana among adolescents at-risk for future substance use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osilla, Karen Chan; Pedersen, Eric R; Ewing, Brett A; Miles, Jeremy N V; Ramchand, Rajeev; D'Amico, Elizabeth J

    2014-09-18

    Among high-risk youth, those who may be at increased risk for adverse alcohol and other drug (AOD) use outcomes may benefit from targeted prevention efforts; how youth acquire AOD may provide an objective means of identifying youth at elevated risk. We assessed how youth acquired alcohol and marijuana (purchasing vs. other means), demographics, AOD behaviors/consequences, and environment among adolescents referred to a diversion program called Teen Court (N = 180) at two time points (prior to the program and 180 days from baseline). Participants were predominantly White and Hispanic/Latino(a). In cross-sectional analyses among alcohol and marijuana users, purchasing marijuana was associated with more frequent marijuana use and consequences, time spent around teens who use marijuana, higher likelihood of substance use disorders, and lower resistance self-efficacy compared to non-purchasers. Teens who purchased both alcohol and marijuana experienced similar outcomes to those who purchased only marijuana, and also reported more frequent and higher quantity of drinking, greater alcohol-related consequences, time spent around teens who use other drugs, and prescription drug misuse. Longitudinally, purchasing alcohol and marijuana at baseline was associated with more frequent and higher quantity of drinking compared to non-purchasers at follow-up. Marijuana only purchasers had a greater likelihood of substance use disorders at follow-up compared to non-purchasers. In an era where drinking is commonplace and attitudes towards marijuana use are becoming more tolerant, it is essential to evaluate how accessibility to AOD and subsequent purchasing behaviors affect youth consumption and intervene accordingly to prevent future consequences.

  15. Ecological risk assessment in a large river-reservoir. 8: Experimental study of the effects of polychlorinated biphenyls on reproductive success in mink

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halbrook, R.S.; Aulerich, R.J.; Bursian, S.J.; Lewis, L.

    1999-01-01

    As a component of an ecological risk assessment of Poplar Creek (located on the Oak Ridge Reservation [ORR]) and the Clinch River (a large river-reservoir system), fish from Poplar Creek, the Clinch River, and Atlantic Ocean were fed to ranch mink to evaluate reproductive success. Five diets, each composed of 75% fish and 25% normal ranch mink chow, were prepared. Two diets served as reference diets and contained 75% Atlantic Ocean fish or 75% Clinch River fish collected above the ORR. The fish portion of the remaining three diets contained 25, 50, and 75% fish collected from Poplar Creek and 50, 25, and 0% ocean fish, respectively. Five mink groups (eight females and two males each) were each fed one of the prepared diets for 196 days. Polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations were determined in diets and various mink tissues, ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity was determined in liver tissue, and reproductive success was evaluated. Concentrations of PCB were greatest in the diet composed of 75% Poplar Creek fish and in tissues from mink fed this diet and their offspring. There was a trend toward decreased adult female and kit weights and reduced mean litter size in mink fed diets containing 75% Poplar Creek fish; however, at 6 weeks of age, kit survival was similar among diet groups. Liver EROD activity significantly increased in adult female mink fed 50 and 75% Poplar Creek fish diets. Estimated dietary concentrations of PCBs were similar to or slightly lower than concentrations associated with adverse effects in experimentally dosed mink. Mercury (Hg) concentrations previously reported in these same mink were below that associated with adverse effects, and there was no indication of additive or synergistic effects from exposure to PCBs plus Hg. It is unlikely that population-level reproductive effects would be observed in mink consuming fish from Poplar Creek on the ORR

  16. Development of QSAR models using artificial neural network analysis for risk assessment of repeated-dose, reproductive, and developmental toxicities of cosmetic ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisaki, Tomoka; Aiba Née Kaneko, Maki; Yamaguchi, Masahiko; Sasa, Hitoshi; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

    2015-04-01

    Use of laboratory animals for systemic toxicity testing is subject to strong ethical and regulatory constraints, but few alternatives are yet available. One possible approach to predict systemic toxicity of chemicals in the absence of experimental data is quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis. Here, we present QSAR models for prediction of maximum "no observed effect level" (NOEL) for repeated-dose, developmental and reproductive toxicities. NOEL values of 421 chemicals for repeated-dose toxicity, 315 for reproductive toxicity, and 156 for developmental toxicity were collected from Japan Existing Chemical Data Base (JECDB). Descriptors to predict toxicity were selected based on molecular orbital (MO) calculations, and QSAR models employing multiple independent descriptors as the input layer of an artificial neural network (ANN) were constructed to predict NOEL values. Robustness of the models was indicated by the root-mean-square (RMS) errors after 10-fold cross-validation (0.529 for repeated-dose, 0.508 for reproductive, and 0.558 for developmental toxicity). Evaluation of the models in terms of the percentages of predicted NOELs falling within factors of 2, 5 and 10 of the in-vivo-determined NOELs suggested that the model is applicable to both general chemicals and the subset of chemicals listed in International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI). Our results indicate that ANN models using in silico parameters have useful predictive performance, and should contribute to integrated risk assessment of systemic toxicity using a weight-of-evidence approach. Availability of predicted NOELs will allow calculation of the margin of safety, as recommended by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS).

  17. Reverters from PD-MCI to cognitively intact are at risk for future cognitive impairment: Analysis of the PPMI cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jacob D; Kuhn, Taylor P; Szymkowicz, Sarah M

    2018-02-01

    Past studies have shown that a large portion of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will revert to a cognitively intact (CI) status in the future. Aging studies have shown that individuals who revert from MCI to CI are at increased risk for reconverting to MCI or dementia in the future. The current study examined if individuals who revert from PD-mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) to CI will be at increased risk for future PD-MCI and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD). The study utilized data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The sample included 364 newly diagnosed PD participants who were followed annually for up to 4 years. Based on the first and second assessments, we identified individuals who were CI at each assessment (CI-Stable) and individuals who were PD-MCI at baseline but then reverted to CI (Reversion). Analyses examined if participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk, relative to the CI-Stable group, for cognitive impairment at future assessments. Participants in the Reversion group were at greater risk for future cognitive impairment (PD-MCI or PDD) at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th annual follow-up, relative to the CI-Stable group. The Reversion group continued to be at increased risk for future cognitive impairment when adjusting for age, gender, education, depressive symptoms, and motor severity. A large proportion of individuals with PD-MCI will not show evidence of cognitive impairment within a year. However, these "reverters" continue to be at risk for future development of cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The Prevalence of Hypovitaminosis D and Its Associated Risk Factors Among Women of Reproductive Age in Saudi Arabia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alzaheb, Riyadh A

    2018-01-01

    Vitamin D deficiency is currently a worldwide epidemic. Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, have high vitamin D deficiency prevalence, most prominently among women, despite their plentiful year-round sunshine. Previous research investigating vitamin D status among Saudi women of reproductive age (15-49 years) is scarce, and no study has used a nationally representative sample, so this review quantified overall hypovitaminosis D prevalence among women in Saudi Arabia and explored the associated risk factors. The Web of Science, Scopus, and Medline databases were searched for prior studies in Saudi Arabia exploring vitamin D status among women of reproductive age, published between January 1, 2000 and May 25, 2017. Data were extracted from the identified studies, and a random effects model meta-analysis established the overall hypovitaminosis D prevalence. The initial search yielded 223 possibly relevant articles; 13 were confirmed as eligible, with samples totaling 2877 women aged between 15 and 49 years. Meta-analysis revealed a mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, 25(OH)D, level of 13.1 ng/mL (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.6-14.6) and an overall prevalence of hypovitaminosis D, defined as 25(OH)D Saudi Arabia by advising them on natural vitamin D sources, and recommending the timing and duration of sun exposure, while also defining a national approach to vitamin D fortification and supplementation.

  19. The influence of genetic selection and feed system on the reproductive performance of spring-calving dairy cows within future pasture-based production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, J; Pierce, K M; Berry, D P; Brennan, A; Horan, B

    2009-10-01

    Three genetic groups of Holstein-Friesian dairy cows were established from within the Moorepark (Teagasc, Ireland) dairy research herd: LowNA, indicative of the Irish national average-genetic-merit North American Holstein-Friesian; HighNA, high-genetic-merit North American Holstein-Friesian; HighNZ, high-genetic-merit New Zealand Holstein-Friesian. Genetic merit in this study was based on the Irish total merit index, the Economic Breeding Index. Animals from within each genetic group were randomly allocated to 1 of 2 possible post-European Union-milk-quota pasture-based feeding systems (FS): 1) The Moorepark (MP) pasture system (2.64 cows/ha and 500 kg of concentrate supplement per cow per lactation) and 2) a high output per hectare (HC) pasture system (2.85 cows/ha and 1,200 kg of concentrate supplement per cow per lactation). A total of 126, 128, and 140 spring-calving dairy cows were used during the years 2006, 2007, and 2008, respectively. Each group had an individual farmlet of 17 paddocks, and all groups were managed similarly throughout the study. The effects of genetic group, FS, and the interaction between genetic group and FS on reproductive performance, body weight, body condition score, and blood metabolite concentrations were studied using mixed models with factorial arrangements of genetic groups and FS. Odds ratios were used in the analysis of binary fertility traits, and survival analysis was used in the analysis of survival after first calving. When treatment means were compared, the HighNA and HighNZ genotypes (with greater genetic merit for fertility performance) had greater first-service pregnancy rates and had a greater proportion of cows pregnant after 42 d of the breeding season than the LowNA group. Both HighNA and HighNZ genotypes were submitted for artificial insemination earlier in the breeding season and had greater survival than the LowNA genotype. There was no significant FS or genotype by FS interactions for any of the reproductive

  20. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Association Between Previous Injury and Risk Factors for Future Injury in Preprofessional Ballet and Contemporary Dancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, Sarah J; Palacios-Derflingher, Luz; Shi, Qian; Whittaker, Jackie L; Emery, Carolyn A

    2017-10-20

    To determine the prevalence of self-reported 1-year injury history and examine its association with preparticipation evaluation components aimed at predicting future injury risk (PPE-IP) among preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers. Cross-sectional study. Preprofessional ballet school, university contemporary dance program. Full-time preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers. Preparticipation evaluation consisted of the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory-28, body mass index, total bone mineral density, ankle range of motion, active standing turnout, lumbopelvic control, unipedal dynamic balance, and Y-Balance test. Self-reported 1-year history of dance-related medical attention and/or time-loss injury. A total of 155 ballet [n = 90, 80 females, median age 15 years (range 11-19)] and contemporary [n = 65, 63 females, median age 20 years (range 17-30)] dancers participated. Forty-six percent (95% confidence interval (CI), 38.4-54.6) reported a 1-year injury history. Self-reported injury history was not associated with any PPE-IP, however, an influence of age and psychological coping skills on the relationship between 1-year injury history and PPE-IP was identified. Multivariable analyses revealed that prevalence of 1-year injury history did not differ by age [referent group 18 years: OR 0.69 (95% CI, 0.30-1.56)], or level of psychological coping skills [OR 1.35 (95% CI, 0.61-2.94)]. The prevalence of self-reported 1-year injury history among preprofessional ballet and contemporary dancers is high. Although measures of PPE-IP did not differ based on injury history, it is important that age and psychological coping skills are considered in future dance injury prevention and prediction research. Level 3 evidence.

  2. Slightly increased BMI at young age is a risk factor for future hypertension in Japanese men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuki Someya

    Full Text Available Hypertension is developed easily in Asian adults with normal body mass index (BMI (~23 kg/m2, compared with other ethnicities with similar BMI. This study tested the hypothesis that slightly increased BMI at young age is a risk factor for future hypertension in Japanese men by historical cohort study.The study participants were 636 male alumni of the physical education school. They had available data on their physical examination at college age and follow-up investigation between 2007 and 2011. The participants were categorized into six categories: BMI at college age of <20.0 kg/m2, 20.0-21.0kg/m2, 21.0-22.0kg/m2, 22.0-23.0kg/m2, 23.0-24.0kg/m2, and ≥24.0kg/m2, and the incidence of hypertension was compared.This study covered 27-year follow-up period (interquartile range: IQR: 23-31 which included 17,059 person-years of observation. Subjects were 22 (22-22 years old at graduated college, and 49 (45-53 years old at first follow-up investigation. During the period, 120 men developed hypertension. The prevalence rates of hypertension for lowest to highest BMI categories were 9.4%, 14.6%, 16.1%, 17.5%, 30.3%, and 29.3%, respectively (p<0.001 for trend, and their hazard ratios were 1.00 (reference, 1.80 (95%CI: 0.65-4.94, 2.17 (0.83-5.64, 2.29 (0.89-5.92, 3.60 (1.37-9.47 and 4.72 (1.78-12.48, respectively (p<0.001 for trend. This trend was similar after adjustment for age, year of graduation, smoking, current exercise status and current dietary intake.Slightly increased BMI at young age is a risk factor for future hypertension in Japanese men.

  3. Association Between Prenatal Acetaminophen Exposure and Future Risk of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Rebecca M; Hayes, V Autumn Gombert; Erramouspe, John

    2015-12-01

    To evaluate the effect of prenatal acetaminophen exposure on the future development of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children. Literature searches of MEDLINE (1975 to June 2015), International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (1975 to June 2015), and Cochrane Database (publications through June 2015) for prospective clinical trials assessing the relationship of prenatal acetaminophen exposure and the development of attention deficit disorders or hyperactivity. Studies comparing self-reported maternal acetaminophen use during pregnancy to development of ADHD or ADHD-like behaviors in offspring between the ages of 3 and 12 years. Four studies examining the effects of prenatal acetaminophen exposure on subsequent ADHD behaviors were identified. Of these, one early study found no link to ADHD behaviors while the other studies found statistically significant correlations with the most prominent being a study finding a higher risk for using ADHD medications (hazard ratio = 1.29; 95% CI, 1.15-1.44) or having ADHD-like behaviors at age 7 years as determined by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (risk ratio = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27) in children whose mothers used acetaminophen during pregnancy. While there does appear to be a mild correlation between prenatal acetaminophen use and the development of ADHD symptoms in children, current data do not provide sufficient evidence that prenatal acetaminophen exposure leads to development of ADHD symptoms late in life. Acetaminophen is a preferred option for pain management during pregnancy when compared with other medications such as nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or opioids for pyretic or pain relief. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

  5. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  6. Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Revoredo-Giha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. The paper analyses the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling and the Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat contract as a comparison. Although the main purpose of the paper is to analyse whether futures markets are still useful for hedging (considering the demands from different market participants, implicitly this can be seen as testing whether the increasing presence of speculation has made futures markets divorced from physical markets. The results indicate that hedging with futures markets is still a viable alternative for dealing with price risk. This is particularly true in short period hedges (e.g. merchants and processors, where the basis seems to have been affected by the observed price instability.

  7. Progeny reproduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashneva, N.I.

    1984-01-01

    Studies on clarification of importance of different harmful factors of radiation and chemical nature on the function of progeny reproduction, growth and development are presented. Intake of radionuclides to organism, of white mices and rats in concentrations corresponding to 10 6 PCsub(s) ( 90 Sr, 210 Po, 210 Pb and other) is shown to result in 100% sterility of females, 10 5 -10 4 PCsub(s) concentrations cause damaging effect of different degrees of expression at later stages of effect. Smaller contents of radionuclides (10 3 -10 2 PCsub(s)) did not result in noticeable changes in reproductivity of animals. Similar regularities were observed under effect of different concentrations of chemical agent. Some peculiarities of animal physiology should be taken into account to obtain data of estimation of damaging effect of harmful factors on reproduction function

  8. Relationship between serum anti-Mullerian hormone with vitamin D and metabolic syndrome risk factors in late reproductive-age women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunmie; Kim, Jin Ju; Kim, Min-Jeong; Han, Kyung Hee; Lee, Jung Ryeol; Suh, Chang Suk; Choi, Young Min; Kim, Seok Hyun

    2018-04-01

    The relationship between serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) with vitamin D (25OH-D) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk was evaluated in healthy, late reproductive-age (35-49 years) women with regular menstrual cycles. Among the 291 participants (mean age = 42.5 years), most (76.6%, n = 223) were serum vitamin D insufficient (D were 2.04 ng/mL and 15.9 ng/mL, respectively. There was no correlation between AMH and 25OH-D after adjustment for age (r = -0.093, p = 0.113). Subjects with higher MetS score, higher waist circumference, and higher diastolic blood pressure had significantly higher serum AMH levels when adjusted for age, but the association attenuated when BMI was included. There was no significant correlation between MetS risk components with serum level of AMH or vitamin D. In conclusion, there was no association between AMH with serum 25OH-D or MetS risk factors in this population.

  9. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... regarding sources of funding, together with a narrative discussion by management of the liquidity of the... to any futures commission merchant which holds funds or property of or for futures customers of less...

  10. Arguing about climate change. Judging the handling of climate risk to future generations by comparison to the general standards of conduct in the case of risk to contemporaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2009-01-01

    Intergenerational justice requires that climate risks to future generations be handled with the same reasonable care deemed acceptable by society in the case of risks to contemporaries. Such general standards of conduct are laid down in tort law, for example. Consequently, the validity of arguments for or against more stringent climate policy can be judged by comparison to the general standards of conduct applying in the case of risk to contemporaries. That this consistency test is able to disqualify certain arguments in the climate debate is illustrated by a further investigation of the debate on the social discount rate, used in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy

  11. Risk of placenta praevia is linked to endometrial thickness in a retrospective cohort study of 4537 singleton assisted reproduction technology births.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rombauts, L; Motteram, C; Berkowitz, E; Fernando, S

    2014-12-01

    Is endometrial thickness measured prior to embryo transfer associated with placenta praevia? Following IVF, the risk of placenta praevia is increased 4-fold in women with an endometrial thickness of >12 mm compared with women with an endometrial thickness of IVF treatment but it remains unknown what factors contribute to that increased risk. Retrospective cohort study involving 4007 women who had 4537 singleton assisted reproduction technology (ART) births occurring between January 2006 and June 2012 with no loss to follow-up. The primary outcome measure was the diagnosis of placenta praevia, made by the treating obstetrician on a transvaginal ultrasound in the third trimester. Women who had singleton births following single embryo transfer performed at Monash IVF in Melbourne, Australia were included. Of the 4537 cycles leading to a singleton ART birth, 2951 were stimulated cycles with fresh embryo transfers; 355 were hormone replacement therapy frozen embryo transfers and 1231 were natural cycles with frozen embryo transfers. The dataset was analysed using binary logistic general estimating equations to calculate odds ratios for placenta praevia adjusted (aOR) for known confounders. The study groups did not differ significantly in age, BMI and aetiologies of infertility prior to IVF treatment. When compared with stimulated cycles, placenta praevia was less common in women undergoing natural cycles with frozen embryo transfers (OR 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.27-0.70, P 12 mm had an aOR of 3.74 (95% CI 1.90-7.34, P IVF patients and their offspring. The fact that the observed increased risk is not linked to the type of embryo transfer (fresh/frozen) but to the type of endometrial preparation, suggests that the risk of placenta praevia in ART can be reduced by considering an elective frozen embryo transfer in a natural cycle, especially given the growing evidence that this strategy also provides a number of other maternal and neonatal benefits. No funding

  12. Linking at-risk South African girls to sexual violence and reproductive health services: A mixed-methods assessment of a soccer-based HIV prevention program and pilot SMS campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Katherine G; Merrill, Jamison C; Hershow, Rebecca B; Barkley, Chris; Rakosa, Boitumelo; DeCelles, Jeff; Harrison, Abigail

    2018-04-30

    Grassroot Soccer developed SKILLZ Street-a soccer-based life skills program with a supplementary SMS platform-to support adolescent girls at risk for HIV, violence, and sexual and reproductive health challenges. We conducted a mixed-methods assessment of preliminary outcomes and implementation processes in three primary schools in Soweto, South Africa, from August to December 2013. Quantitative methods included participant attendance and SMS platform usage tracking, pre/post questionnaires, and structured observation. Qualitative data were collected from program participants, parents, teachers, and a social worker during 6 focus group discussions and 4 in-depth interviews. Of 394 participants enrolled, 97% (n = 382) graduated, and 217 unique users accessed the SMS platform. Questionnaires completed by 213 participants (mean age: 11.9, SD: 3.02 years) alongside qualitative findings showed modest improvements in participants' perceptions of power in relationships and gender equity, self-esteem, self-efficacy to avoid unwanted sex, communication with others about HIV and sex, and HIV-related knowledge and stigma. The coach-participant relationship, safe space, and integration of soccer were raised as key intervention components. Implementation challenges were faced around delivery of soccer-based activities. Findings highlight the relevance and importance of programs like SKILLZ Street in addressing challenges facing adolescent girls in South African townships. Recommendations for future programs are provided. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for PTSD and Depression Symptoms Reduces Risk for Future Intimate Partner Violence among Interpersonal Trauma Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Katherine M.; Gradus, Jaimie L.; Resick, Patricia A.; Suvak, Michael K.; Smith, Kamala F.; Monson, Candice M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Women who develop symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression subsequent to interpersonal trauma are at heightened risk for future intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective in reducing PTSD and depression symptoms, yet limited research has investigated the…

  14. 17 CFR 1.55 - Distribution of “Risk Disclosure Statement” by futures commission merchants and introducing brokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... conditions on the exchange where the order is placed may make it impossible to execute such orders. (4) All... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Distribution of âRisk... and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY...

  15. Reproductive epidemiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørn; Nøhr, Ellen Aagaard

    2010-01-01

    Reproductive health covers a broad category of health and disease conditions, according to the Cairo Statement. This chapter focuses on subfecundity fertility, fetal death, malformations, pregnancy complications, sexual health, and diseases that may have their origin in fetal life, but which will...

  16. Sizing Up a Superstorm: Exploring the Role of Recalled Experience and Attribution of Responsibility in Judgments of Future Hurricane Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickard, Laura N; Yang, Z Janet; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Eosco, Gina M; Scherer, Clifford W; Daziano, Ricardo A

    2017-12-01

    Research suggests that hurricane-related risk perception is a critical predictor of behavioral response, such as evacuation. Less is known, however, about the precursors of these subjective risk judgments, especially when time has elapsed from a focal event. Drawing broadly from the risk communication, social psychology, and natural hazards literature, and specifically from concepts adapted from the risk information seeking and processing model and the protective action decision model, we examine how individuals' distant recollections, including attribution of responsibility for the effects of a storm, attitude toward relevant information, and past hurricane experience, relate to risk judgment for a future, similar event. The present study reports on a survey involving U.S. residents in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York (n = 619) impacted by Hurricane Sandy. While some results confirm past findings, such as that hurricane experience increases risk judgment, others suggest additional complexity, such as how various types of experience (e.g., having evacuated vs. having experienced losses) may heighten or attenuate individual-level judgments of responsibility. We suggest avenues for future research, as well as implications for federal agencies involved in severe weather/natural hazard forecasting and communication with public audiences. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

  18. Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelsey L Ruckert

    Full Text Available Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90% estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability. Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

  19. The relation of risk-taking propensity, professional preferences and the approach to the selection of future profession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosić-Marković Olga

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that risk-taking individuals choose professions that involve a high level of uncertainty, change or flexibility. The aim of this research was to study the relation between risk-taking propensity and professional preferences, as well as between different indicators of the approach to the selection of future profession and risk-taking propensity. The study was conducted on the sample of 583 students attending the final grade of secondary school. For the assessment of risk-taking propensity we used a modified version of the Evaluation of Risk scale (EVAR, while professional interests were investigated by the Test of Professional Orientation (TPO. In addition, we analysed certain indicators of the approach to the selection of profession that were interesting in the context of career counselling, namely: duration of the selection of profession, the number of professional preferences and readiness to make a professional choice. The results have shown that risk-taking propensity is significantly correlated with professional preferences where risk is an important job feature (such as professions in the field of security as well as with the professions where risk is an important part of success (such as sports. It has also been shown that risk-taking individuals assess themselves as more ready to make decisions on their own professional choice. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that risk-taking propensity is an important characteristic that should be taken into account when studying professional preferences and the approach to the selection of future profession in adolescents.

  20. The potential of tidal barrages and lagoons to manage future coastal flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Wolf, Judith; Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andrew; Brown, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    In the face of a changing climate, adaptation and mitigation measures are important for coastal communities that seek to maintain their resilience to extreme events. Measures that can be classed as being both adaptation and mitigation can doubly contribute to this. Tide barrages and lagoons have the capacity to generate electricity from the rise and fall of the tide, which over the assets lifetime would contribute significantly towards emission reduction targets and towards a low carbon economy. In addition to electricity generation, the barrage or lagoon can also act as a flood defence during extreme events. This means that coastal communities protected by the barrage will have adaptation benefits to the increasing frequency of storm surges that are a result of sea-level rise. Finally, the barrage also has the potential to act as a transport link with vehicles able to cross, reducing travel times and emissions. The research project RISES-AM focuses on the implications of the higher end climate scenarios, particularly those with a global average warming that is greater than 2 ⁰C with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. RISES-AM aims to produce a better quantification of the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with these high end climate scenarios, and show that adaptation to them is possible at an affordable cost when compared to the increase in risk resulting from them. We investigated the physical and economic impact of extreme flood events of on the Mersey Estuary and surrounding areas. It is thought the Mersey Estuary is likely to be more sensitive to changes in forcing factors in the future than in the past where industrial impacts where the main drivers of change. Extreme events were simulated, for the present day and in 2100 where high impact emission scenarios have resulted in SLR ranging from 0.71 m to 1.80 m depending on the higher end emission scenario selected. If built, the barrage in the Estuary or lagoon in surrounding areas such as the

  1. Risk of stillbirth and infant deaths after assisted reproductive technology: a Nordic study from the CoNARTaS group

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Anna-Karina Aaris; Wennerholm, U. B.; Gissler, M.

    2014-01-01

    the analyses to opposite-sex twins. LIMITATIONS, REASON FOR CAUTION: We were not able to adjust for potential confounders, such as a prior history of stillbirth, induction of labour, body mass index or smoking. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The risk of stillbirth in ART versus SC singletons was only...

  2. A Laboratory Simulation of Parental Investment Decisions: The Role of Future Reproductive Opportunities and Quality of Offspring in Determining Levels of Parental Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie L. Turner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Hagen's Defection Hypothesis (2002 predicts that a mother's age and the quality of her offspring are critical factors in determining her investment in her newborn. We tested this hypothesis using hamster races in which 113 college student participants received a hamster (“offspring” and 10 poker chips (“resources” to “invest” into the hamster based on information about the quality of the hamster and about the possibility of future races. Subjects invested the most in low quality offspring when they expected to run only one race and the least in low quality offspring when they expected more racing opportunities in the future. Offspring quality affected investment differently depending on the presence or absence of future investment opportunities and the sex of the subject. Overall, the results supported Hagen's model of parental investment and also suggest that parental investment may be explained by conscious as well as unconscious decision-making.

  3. Evaluation of alternative strategies to MERV 16-based air filtration systems for reduction of the risk of airborne spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, Scott; Pitkin, Andrea; Deen, John

    2009-07-02

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a re-emerging disease of pigs and a growing threat to the global swine industry. For sustainable disease control it is critical to prevent the airborne spread of the etiologic agent, PRRS virus, between pig populations. The application of MERV 16-based air filtration systems to swine facilities in an effort to reduce this risk has been proposed; however, due to the cost and air flow restrictions of such systems the need for alternative strategies has arisen. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate 3 groups of alternative biosecurity strategies for reducing the risk of the airborne spread of PRRSV. Strategies evaluated included mechanical filters, antimicrobial filters and a disinfectant-EVAP (evaporative cooling) system. Results from this study indicate that while alternatives to MERV 16-based biosecurity protocols for protecting farms from the airborne spread of PRRSV are available, further information on their efficacy in the field is needed before conclusions can be drawn.

  4. Fatigue risk management in aviation maintenance : current best practices and potential future countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    The unregulated hours and frequent night work characteristic of maintenance can produce significant levels of : employee fatigue, with a resultant risk of maintenance error. Fatigue Risk Management Systems (FRMS) are : widely used to manage fatigue a...

  5. In-vitro developmental potential of individual mouse blastomeres cultured with and without zona pellucida: future implications for human assisted reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illmensee, K; Kaskar, K; Zavos, P M

    2006-08-01

    This study was designed to compare the developmental potential of individual blastomeres derived from 2-, 4-, 6- and 8-cell mouse embryos cultured with and without zona pellucida (ZP). In the first series, one, three, five and seven blastomeres were biopsied from 2-, 4-, 6- and 8-cell embryos respectively, and inserted individually into empty ZP recipients, leaving the remaining blastomere within its original ZP. In the second series, the same protocol was used except that the biopsied blastomeres were cultured without ZP and compared with the remaining blastomere within its original ZP. For the first series, individual blastomeres derived from 2-, 4-, 6- and 8-cell embryos cultured with ZP showed blastocyst development of 82.4, 68.6, 44.4 and 23.1% respectively, with corresponding hatching rates of 70.6, 60.0, 25.9 and 7.7%. For the second series, individual blastomeres cultured without ZP progressed with blastocyst development of 73.3, 64.5, 35.7 and 22.7% respectively. Blastocyst multiplication was achieved most efficiently when using individual blastomeres from 4- and 6-cell embryos. This is the first report on comparative in-vitro propagation of single blastomeres derived from various cleavage stages in a mammalian species. Blastomere cloning with its multiple applications may be envisaged for human assisted reproductive technologies.

  6. Separation Anxiety Disorder in Childhood as a Risk Factor for Future Mental Illness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinsohn, Peter M.; Holm-Denoma, Jill M.; Small, Jason W.; Seeley, John R.; Joiner, Thomas E.

    2008-01-01

    A study to examine the association between childhood separation anxiety disorder (SAD) and the risk of the development of psychopathology during young adulthood was conducted. Results showed that SAD contributed to the risk for the development of internalizing disorders, which are panic and depression, but decreased the risk for externalizing…

  7. Medically assisted reproduction and ethical challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaeaeriaeinen, Helena; Evers-Kiebooms, Gerry; Coviello, Domenico

    2005-01-01

    Many of the ethical challenges associated with medically assisted reproduction are societal. Should the technique be restricted to only ordinary couples or could it be used also to single females or couples of same sex? Should the future child be entitled to know the identity of the gamete donor? Should there be age limits? Can embryos or gametes be used after the death of the donor? Can surrogate mothers be part of the process? Can preimplantation diagnostics be used to select the future baby's sex? In addition, there are several clearly medical questions that lead to difficult ethical problems. Is it safe to use very premature eggs or sperms? Is the risk for some rare syndromes caused by imprinting errors really increased when using these techniques? Do we transfer genetic infertility to the offspring? Is the risk for multiple pregnancies too high when several embryos are implanted? Does preimplantation diagnosis cause some extra risks for the future child? Should the counselling of these couples include information of all these potential but unlikely risks? The legislation and practices differ in different countries and ethical discussion and professional guidelines are still needed

  8. Associations between behavioural risk factors and smoking, heavy smoking and future smoking among an Australian population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iredale, Jaimi M; Clare, Philip J; Courtney, Ryan J; Martire, Kristy A; Bonevski, Billie; Borland, Ron; Siahpush, Mohammad; Mattick, Richard P

    2016-02-01

    Tobacco smoking co-occurs with behavioural risk factors including diet, alcohol use and obesity. However, the association between behavioural risk factors and heavy smoking (>20cig/day) compared to light-moderate smoking is unknown. The link between behavioural risk factors and future smoking for both ex and current smokers is also unknown. This study sought to examine these relationships. It is hypothesised that behavioural risk factors will be more strongly associated with heavy smoking. Data from Wave 7 (2007) of the Household and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey was analysed using logistic regression to determine relationships between diet (fruit and vegetable consumption, and unhealthy diet choices), alcohol consumption, obesity and physical activity with light-moderate smoking and heavy smoking. The association between these risk factors and future smoking (2008) was assessed for current and ex-smokers (2007). Obese respondents were less likely to be light/moderate smokers (RRR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.66) but not heavy smokers. Those who consume confectionary weekly were less likely to be light/moderate smokers (RRR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.87), but not heavy smokers. Smokers in 2007 were more likely to continue smoking in 2008 if they consumed 1-4 drinks per occasion (OR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.13, 5.62). Ex-smokers in 2007 were less likely to relapse in 2008 if they consumed recommended levels of both fruit and vegetables (OR: 0.31; CI: 0.10, 0.91). The relationships between heavy smoking and behavioural risk factors differ from moderate-light smoking. Future primary care interventions would benefit from targeting multiple risk factors, particularly for heavy smokers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Imprinting disorders after assisted reproductive technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lidegaard, Øjvind; Pinborg, Anja; Andersen, Anders Nyboe

    2006-01-01

    To assess the evidence of an increased risk of imprinting diseases in children born after use of assisted reproductive technologies.......To assess the evidence of an increased risk of imprinting diseases in children born after use of assisted reproductive technologies....

  10. Pregnancy Desire, Partner Serodiscordance, and Partner HIV Disclosure among Reproductive Age HIV-Infected Women in an Urban Clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Corinne M; Cu-Uvin, Susan; Rana, Aadia I

    2016-01-01

    Women comprise 25% of the US HIV epidemic, with many women of reproductive age. There is a need for providers to address the reproductive needs and desires of women with HIV given that effective antiretroviral therapy has transformed HIV into a chronic disease. This cross-sectional study shows high rates of partner serodiscordance (61%) and moderate HIV disclosure to partners (61%). Patients surveyed reported practitioners discuss condoms (94%) and contraception (71%) more often than pregnancy desire (38%). In our sample, 44% of the surveyed women intended future pregnancy, whereas women who did not intend future pregnancy cited HIV/health and serodiscordance as the most common reasons (56% and 35%, resp.). There was no difference in the knowledge of mother-to-child transmission risk between women who intended or did not intend future pregnancy (p = 0.71). These results underline the need for provider training in reproductive counseling to promote risk reduction and education.

  11. Risk factors of future smoking among Thai youth: a secondary analysis of the Thai Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Gyeongsil; Lee, Joann; Lee, Sungkyu

    2015-03-01

    The study aimed to identify the risk factors for future smoking among Thai youth aged 13 to 15 years (seventh to ninth grade). Data from the nationally representative 2005 Thai Global Youth Tobacco Survey (n = 15 774) were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Among nonsmoking Thai youth, boys were much more likely to have intention of future smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.37-0.84). Younger youth were more likely to be cigarette smokers in the future (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.56-0.88). Youth having the intention of smoking from a friend's cigarette offer were 5.29 times more likely to have intention of future smoking, compared with those who did not (95% CI = 3.75-7.46). Understanding and targeting youth at higher risk for future smoking can provide for a lowering of the youth smoking rate in Thailand and contribute to the country's continued efforts in effective youth tobacco control. © 2013 APJPH.

  12. Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

    2016-01-01

    Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

  13. Corticosterone-mediated reproductive decisions: sex allocation, the cost of reproduction and maternal fitness

    OpenAIRE

    Love, Oliver P.

    2007-01-01

    Managing reproductive investment within the scope of an individual’s energetic condition is required to maximize fitness. To be successful, individuals must make the correct decisions about when to reproduce, when to abandon an attempt, how many resources to invest in current and future attempts and where those resources should be allocated. These reproductive decisions therefore involve complex life-history trade-offs between an individual’s condition and current reproduction, future reprodu...

  14. Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, Michael; Carter-Journet, Katrina

    2013-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

  15. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  16. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  17. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  18. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Mother-child interactions in depressed children and children at high risk and low risk for future depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Laura J; Birmaher, Boris; Williamson, Douglas E; Silk, Jennifer S; Dahl, Ronald E; Axelson, David A; Ehmann, Mary; Ryan, Neal D

    2008-05-01

    To compare mother-child interactions and parenting styles in families of children with major depressive disorder, youths at high risk for depression, and healthy controls. Currently depressed (n = 43), high-risk (n = 28), and healthy control (n = 41) youths and their mothers engaged in a standardized videotaped problem-solving interaction. Measures of affect and behavior for both mothers and children were obtained, in addition to global measures of parenting. Depressed children demonstrated more negativity and less positivity in dyadic interactions than did children at high risk and control children. Mothers of depressed children were more disengaged than control mothers. Exploratory repeated-measures analyses in a subgroup of depressed children (n = 16) suggested mother-child interactions do not significantly change when children recover from depression. Children at high risk demonstrated less positivity in dyadic interactions than did controls. Mothers with a history of major depressive disorder and mothers with higher current depressive symptoms demonstrated patterns of disengagement and low control in interactions with children. Mother-child interactions in depressed youths are marked by maternal disengagement and low child positivity that may not improve when children recover. The bidirectional effects of maternal disengagement and low levels of child positivity may precede onset of major depressive disorder in children and serve as risk factors for recurrent depression in youths.

  20. News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Vassalou, Maria

    2001-01-01

    A model that includes a factor that captures news related to future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth along with the market factor can explain the cross-section of equity returns about as well as the Fama-French model can. Furthermore, the Fama-French factors HML and SMB appear to contain mainly news related to future GDP growth. When news related to future GDP growth is present in the asset-pricing model, HML and SMB lose their ability to explain the cross-section.

  1. Rethinking reproductive "tourism" as reproductive "exile".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inhorn, Marcia C; Patrizio, Pasquale

    2009-09-01

    Whereas reproductive "tourism" implies leisure travel, reproductive "exile" bespeaks the numerous difficulties and constraints faced by infertile patients who are "forced" to travel globally for assisted reproduction. Given this reality, it is time to rethink the language of "reproductive tourism," replacing it with more accurate and patient-centered terms.

  2. Racial, ethnic, and gender variations in cancer risk: considerations for future epidemiologic research.

    OpenAIRE

    Zahm, S H; Fraumeni, J F

    1995-01-01

    There is no question that the risk of many cancers varies substantially by race, ethnic group, and gender. Although important clues to cancer etiology may come from investigating the differences in risk across subgroups of the population, epidemiologic research has often focused on white men. More descriptive and analytic studies are needed to identify and explain variations in risk among population subgroups. Especially important are studies to clarify the role of differential exposures, sus...

  3. Toxic-metabolic Risk Factors in Pediatric Pancreatitis: Recommendations for Diagnosis, Management, and Future Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Sohail Z; Morinville, Veronique; Pohl, John; Abu-El-Haija, Maisam; Bellin, Melena D; Freedman, Steve; Hegyi, Peter; Heyman, Melvin B; Himes, Ryan; Ooi, Chee Y; Schwarzenberg, Sarah J; Usatin, Danielle; Uc, Aliye

    2016-04-01

    Pancreatitis in children can result from metabolic and toxic risk factors, but the evidence linking these factors is sparse. We review the evidence for association or causality of these risk factors in pancreatitis, discuss management strategies, and their rationale. We conducted a review of the pediatric pancreatitis literature with respect to the following risk factors: hyperlipidemia, hypercalcemia, chronic renal failure, smoking exposure, alcohol, and medications. Areas of additional research were identified. Hypertriglyceridemia of 1000 mg/dL or greater poses an absolute risk for pancreatitis; persistent elevations of calcium are predisposing. Further research is necessary to determine whether end-stage renal disease leads to increased pancreatitis in children similar to adults. It is unknown whether cigarette smoking exposure, which clearly increases risk in adults, also increases risk in children. The role of alcohol in pediatric pancreatitis, whether direct or modifying, needs to be elucidated. The evidence supporting most cases of medication-induced pancreatitis is poor. Drug structure, improper handling of drug by host, and bystander status may be implicated. Other pancreatitis risk factors must be sought in all cases. The quality of evidence supporting causative role of various toxic and metabolic factors in pediatric pancreatitis is variable. Careful phenotyping is essential, including search for other etiologic risk factors. Directed therapy includes correction/removal of any agent identified, and general supportive measures. Further research is necessary to improve our understanding of these pancreatitis risk factors in children.

  4. Toxic-Metabolic Risk Factors in Pediatric Pancreatitis: Recommendations for Diagnosis, Management and Future Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Sohail Z.; Morinville, Veronique; Pohl, John; Abu-El-Haija, Maisam; Bellin, Melena D.; Freedman, Steve; Hegyi, Peter; Heyman, Melvin B; Himes, Ryan; Ooi, Chee Y.; Schwarzenberg, Sarah Jane; Usatin, Danielle; Uc, Aliye

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Pancreatitis in children can result from metabolic and toxic risk factors, but the evidence linking these factors is sparse. We review the evidence for association or causality of these risk factors in pancreatitis, discuss management strategies and their rationale. Methods We conducted a review of the pediatric pancreatitis literature with respect to the following risk factors: (a) hyperlipidemia, (b) hypercalcemia, (c) chronic renal failure, (d) smoking exposure, (e) alcohol, and (f) medications. Areas of additional research were identified. Results Hypertriglyceridemia of 1000 mg/dl or greater poses an absolute risk for pancreatitis; persistent elevations of calcium are predisposing. Further research is necessary to determine whether end stage renal disease leads to increased pancreatitis in children similar to adults. It is unknown whether cigarette smoking exposure, which clearly increases risk in adults, also increases risk in children. The role of alcohol in pediatric pancreatitis, whether direct or modifying, needs to be elucidated. The evidence supporting most cases of medication-induced pancreatitis is poor. Drug structure, improper handling of drug by host, and by-stander status may be implicated. Other pancreatitis risk factors must be sought in all cases. Conclusions The quality of evidence supporting causative role of various toxic and metabolic factors in pediatric pancreatitis is variable. Careful phenotyping is essential, including search for other etiologic risk factors. Directed therapy includes correction/ removal of any agent identified, and general supportive measures. Further research is necessary to improve our understanding of these pancreatitis risk factors in children. PMID:26594832

  5. Shared constitutional risks for maternal vascular-related pregnancy complications and future cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.L. Berends (Anne); C.J.M. de Groot (Christianne); E.J.G. Sijbrands (Eric); M.P.S. Sie (Mark); S.H. Benneheij (Sofie); R. Pal (Richard); R. Heydanus (Rogier); B.A. Oostra (Ben); P. Tikka-Kleemola (Päivi); R.P.M. Steegers-Theunissen (Régine)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractMaternal predisposition to vascular and metabolic disease may underlie both vascular-related pregnancy complications, such as preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction, as well as future maternal cardiovascular disease. We aimed to substantiate this hypothesis with biochemical and

  6. A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

  7. HIV seroconversion in a woman preparing for assisted reproduction: an inherent risk in caring for HIV-serodiscordant couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Mark V; Choi, Janet

    2006-03-01

    A woman preparing to undergo IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection to avoid horizontal viral transmission of HIV from her seropositive husband was discovered to be HIV seropositive, presumably secondary to a condom break or unprotected intercourse. Had this event occurred after treatment, the sperm-washing technique used to avoid infection would have undoubtedly been called into question. Nearly all HIV-serodiscordant couples are sexually active and therefore at risk for transmitting infection, either due to improper condom use or unprotected intercourse. Physicians willing to treat HIV-serodiscordant couples must accept the inevitability of viral transmission in occasional individuals. Furthermore, it should not be presumed that all patients who experience seroconversions after either intrauterine insemination or IVF procedures do so as a result of inadequacies in the sperm preparation technique.

  8. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Men Who Abuse Their Spouses: An Approach to Assessing Future Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Herbert R.

    1990-01-01

    Studied risk assessment for abuse cases by examining cases (N=20) referred to local spouse treatment center. Focused on woman's perception of mate's personality/behavioral characteristics and relationship plus other situational factors. Confirmed majority of risk factors associated with spouse abuse as reported in the literature. Presents pilot…

  10. Ethical implications for clinical practice and future research in "at risk" individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Fiza; Mirzakhanian, Heline; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; de la Fuente-Sandoval, Camilo; Cadenhead, Kristin S

    2012-01-01

    The last 15 years have witnessed a shift in schizophrenia research with increasing interest in earlier stages of illness with the hope of early intervention and ultimately prevention of psychotic illness. Large-scale longitudinal studies have identified clinical and biological risk factors associated with increased risk of psychotic conversion, which together with symptomatic and demographic risk factors may improve the power of prediction algorithms for psychotic transition. Despite these advances, 45-70% of at risk subjects in most samples do not convert to frank psychosis, but continue to function well below their age matched counterparts. The issue is of utmost importance in light of the upcoming DSM-V and the possible inclusion of the attenuated psychotic symptoms syndrome (APSS) diagnosis, with clinical and ethical implications. Clinical considerations include feasibility of reliably diagnosing the at risk state in non-academic medical centers, variable psychotic conversion rates, a non-uniform definition of conversion and extensive debate about treatment for individuals with an ill-defined outcome. On the ethical side, diagnosing APSS could lead to unnecessary prescribing of antipsychotics with long-term deleterious consequences, slow research by providing a false sense of comfort in the diagnosis, and have psychosocial implications for those who receive a diagnosis. Thus it may be prudent to engage at risk populations early and to use broad-spectrum treatments with low risk benefit ratios to relieve functional impairments, while simultaneously studying all subsets of the at risk population.

  11. Future risk of diabetes in mother and child after gestational diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damm, Peter; Damm, Peter

    2009-01-01

    diabetes, later in life. Moreover, the risk of the metabolic syndrome is increased 3-fold in these women. Their offspring have an 8-fold risk of diabetes/prediabetes at 19-27 years of age. Thus, GDM is part of a vicious circle which increases the development of diabetes in the coming generations....

  12. Reproductive health of male radiographers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakhatreh, Farouk M.

    2001-01-01

    To compare certain reproductive health problems reported in 2 groups of males, one of which was exposed to x-ray radiation (radiographers) and the other group that was not exposed to x-ray radiation. The reproductive health problems were miscarriage, congenital anomalies, still births and infertility. Two groups of men were selected (90 in each group). The first group consisted of radiographers and the other groups consisted of men not exposed to x-ray radiation. The 2 groups were matched for age and source. Relative risk, attributable risk percentage and level of significance were calculated. Incidence rate of reproductive health problems was increasing with the increase in duration of exposure to x-ray radiation ranging between 17% (for those exposed for 1-5 years) to 91% (for those exposed for more than 15 years). There were significant associations between exposure to radiation and miscarriage (relative risk = 1.67, attributable risk percentage = 40%), congenital anomalies (relative risk = 10, attributable risk percentage 90%), still birth (relative risk = 7, attributable risk percentage = 86%), and infertility (relative risk = 4.5, attributable risk = 78%). The incidence rates of reproductive health problems reported by male radiographers were significantly higher than that reported by the non exposed group and higher than the incidence rates reported in community-based studies in Jordan. The incidence rates of fetal death (miscarriage and stillbirth together) and infertility reported by our radiographers were higher than had been reported by the British radiographers. An immediate plan of action is needed to protect our radiographers. Further studies are needed in this field taking into account all extraneous variables that may affect the reproductive health of radiographers. (author)

  13. Risks from electricity generation systems in the far future. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting on approaches for estimating and comparing risks from energy systems in the far future. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment of the health and environmental impacts of electricity generation systems can be used for providing information for decisions concerning choice of electricity generation systems and regulation of the systems. Since the beginning of 1990s, there have been several major studies of comparative risk assessment that have advanced the methodology and knowledge for the assessment of health and environmental impacts of electricity production systems. In those studies, many methodological issues were identified, and it was found that one of the major issues that influenced the results was the time period included in the risk assessment. In the results of recent studies, the impacts for long time periods are influential because of the accumulation of the impacts for more than 100 years and the large uncertainties in the estimations. Examples of such long term impacts are those from global climate change and potential impacts from radionuclides ad non-radioactive pollutants originating from nuclear and other electricity generation systems. It is generally expected that the estimates for longer term impacts have greater uncertainty. In order to enhance the comparative risk studies and the application of the results, the methodology and key issues for estimating the impacts for future :generations should be investigated, and approaches for the assessments should be established. In this connection, the IAEA Technical Committee Meeting TCM on Approaches for Estimating and Comparing Risks from Energy Systems in the Far Future was held at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, Austria, from 6 to 10 October 1997. This material contains the proceedings of the TCM held in October 1997, and the latest draft of the technical report, Long-Term Risks from Electricity Generation Systems

  14. Modificación de conocimientos sobre salud reproductiva en adolescentes con riesgo preconcepcional Knowledge modification to sexually reproductive health in adolescents with pre-conception risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niolisday Leyva Ramírez

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Se hizo una intervención educativa en 30 adolescentes con riesgo preconcepcional, atendidas en la consulta de planificación familiar y salud reproductiva perteneciente al Policlínico Universitario "Josué País García" de Santiago de Cuba, desde enero hasta diciembre del 2007, a fin de modificar sus conocimientos sobre salud sexual. En la serie predominó la instrucción inadecuada en cuanto a embarazo en la adolescencia, aborto provocado, métodos anticonceptivos e infecciones sexualmente transmisibles; comportamiento que fue variado satisfactoriamente luego de la estrategia educativa, pues la mayoría de las integrantes incorporaron nuevas nociones sobre el tema o incrementaron las que poseían anteriormente al respecto.A teaching intervention in 30 adolescents with pre-conception risk attended at the Birth Control and Reproductive Health Department from ¨Josué País García¨ University Polyclinic in Santiago de Cuba was carried out from January, 2007 to December, 2007, in order to modify their sexual health knowledge. Inadequate instruction about teenage pregnancy, artificial abortion, contraceptive methods, and sexually transmitted infections were predominant in the series. This behavioral pattern was successfully modified after the educational strategy, since most of the adolescents acquired new ideas about this issue or improved the ones they had already learned.

  15. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  16. Selective Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Mette N.

    2015-01-01

    This article employs a multi-species perspective in investigating how life's worth is negotiated in the field of neonatology in Denmark. It does so by comparing decision-making processes about human infants in the Danish neonatal intensive care unit with those associated with piglets who serve as...... as expectations within linear or predictive time frames are key markers in both sites. Exploring selective reproductive processes across human infants and research piglets can help us uncover aspects of the cultural production of viability that we would not otherwise see or acknowledge....

  17. The Effect of Managerial Ability on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Yeon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of managerial ability on subsequent stock price crash risk using listed firm data in Korea. Compared to some financially advanced countries, the influence of managers is particularly more powerful in Korea, as ownership and management are not effectively separate in most Korean firms. In addition, we considered the effect of large business groups called Chaebol, which is family-run conglomerates with unique corporate governance system that hugely affect the Korean economy. It is important to recognize determinants of the stock price crash risk which would result in doubt on going concern to enhance the company’s sustainable management. Hence, this study focuses on the managerial ability as one of the main factors of the stock price crash risk. We use the measures of firm-specific stock price crash risk based on Hutton et al. (2009. Managerial ability is estimated through a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA and tobit regressions following Demerjian et al. (2012. From the empirical tests, there is a negative association between managerial ability and stock price crash risk. This suggests that managers with a higher ability release more voluntary disclosure to signal their ability, ultimately lowering the subsequent stock price crash risk. We also find that firms in large business groups, Chaebol, weaken the negative association between managerial ability and subsequent stock price crash risk.

  18. Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors. A view from the EU ETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the empirical relationship between the returns on carbon futures - a new class of commodity assets traded since 2005 on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - and changes in macroeconomic conditions. By using variables which possess forecast power for equity and commodity returns, we document that carbon futures returns may be weakly forecast on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e. equity dividend yields and the 'junk bond' premium. Our results also suggest that the forecast abilities of two variables related to interest rates variation and economic trends on global commodity markets, respectively the U.S. Treasury bill yields and the excess return on the Reuters/CRB Index, are not robust on the carbon market. This latter result reinforces the belief that the EU ETS is currently operating as a very specific commodity market, with distinct fundamentals linked to allowance supply and power demand. The sensitivity of carbon futures to macroeconomic influences is carefully identified following a sub-sample decomposition before and after August 2007, which attempts to take into account the potential impact of the 'credit crunch' crisis. Collectively, these results challenge the market observers' viewpoint that carbon futures prices are immediately correlated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and rather suggest that the carbon market is only remotely connected to macroeconomic variables. The economic logic behind these results may be related to the fuel-switching behavior of power producers in influencing primarily carbon futures price changes. (author)

  19. The future of monitoring in clinical research - a holistic approach: linking risk-based monitoring with quality management principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansmann, Eva B; Hecht, Arthur; Henn, Doris K; Leptien, Sabine; Stelzer, Hans Günther

    2013-01-01

    Since several years risk-based monitoring is the new "magic bullet" for improvement in clinical research. Lots of authors in clinical research ranging from industry and academia to authorities are keen on demonstrating better monitoring-efficiency by reducing monitoring visits, monitoring time on site, monitoring costs and so on, always arguing with the use of risk-based monitoring principles. Mostly forgotten is the fact, that the use of risk-based monitoring is only adequate if all mandatory prerequisites at site and for the monitor and the sponsor are fulfilled.Based on the relevant chapter in ICH GCP (International Conference on Harmonisation of technical requirements for registration of pharmaceuticals for human use - Good Clinical Practice) this publication takes a holistic approach by identifying and describing the requirements for future monitoring and the use of risk-based monitoring. As the authors are operational managers as well as QA (Quality Assurance) experts, both aspects are represented to come up with efficient and qualitative ways of future monitoring according to ICH GCP.

  20. The risks of partner violence following HIV status disclosure, and health service responses: narratives of women attending reproductive health services in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombini, Manuela; James, Courtney; Ndwiga, Charity; Mayhew, Susannah H

    2016-01-01

    . Integration of partner violence identification and care into sexual, reproductive and HIV services for WLWH could be a way forward. The health sector can play a preventive role by sensitizing providers to the potential risks for partner violence following disclosure and ensuring that the women's decision to disclose is fully informed and voluntary.

  1. Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Davidson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

  2. Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

  3. Experiences and future plan for risk-informed decision making in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, D.W.; Ryu, Y.H.

    2001-01-01

    A program for establishing regulatory framework on the use of risk information has been underway since 1995, and several trial applications have been done to evaluate the applicability and usefulness of risk-informed approach to nuclear power plant regulation. The program consists of fifteen general and/or specific items of interest and pilot applications will be initiated in 2003. In parallel, research and development program has been continued to support the regulatory implementation. A task force team has been formed and the official channel has also been opened for cooperation between regulatory body and utility-related organizations. Specifically, a couple of trial applications have been done up to now. First, the risk-based inspection (RBI) program has been implemented to improve regulatory inspection framework by utilizing risk information obtained from plant specific PSA and worldwide operating experiences. Next, optimization of technical specifications has been applied for surveillance test intervals (STIs) and allowed outage time (AOT). (author)

  4. High fractional exhaled nitric oxide and sputum eosinophils are associated with an increased risk of future virus-induced exacerbations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, A; Laing, I A; Backer, V

    2017-01-01

    the follow-up period. Of these, 15 (68%) had a respiratory virus detected at exacerbation. Sputum eosinophils >1% at baseline increased the risk of having a subsequent virus-induced exacerbation (HR 7.6 95% CI: 1.6-35.2, P=.010) as did having FeNO >25 ppb (HR 3.4 95% CI: 1.1-10.4, P=.033). CONCLUSION...... AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Established type 2 inflammation during stable disease is a risk factor for virus-induced exacerbations in a real-life setting. Measures of type 2 inflammation, such as sputum eosinophils and FeNO, could be included in the risk assessment of patients with asthma in future studies....

  5. Postprandial Metabolism of Macronutrients and Cardiometabolic Risk: Recent Developments, Emerging Concepts, and Future Directions12

    OpenAIRE

    Jacome-Sosa, Miriam; Parks, Elizabeth J; Bruno, Richard S; Tasali, Esra; Lewis, Gary F; Schneeman, Barbara O; Rains, Tia M

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. Although the role of habitual lifestyle factors such as physical activity and dietary patterns in increasing CVD risk has long been appreciated, less is known about how acute daily activities may cumulatively contribute to long-term disease risk. Here, the term acute refers to metabolic responses occurring in a short period of time after eating, and the goal of this article is to review recently identified stress...

  6. Moving toward exposure and risk evaluation of nanomaterials: challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Treye; Bahadori, Tina; Savage, Nora; Thomas, Karluss

    2009-01-01

    Nanotechnology, the commercial development of engineered nanomaterials, promises breakthrough innovations by enhancing the performance of existing consumer products and enabling development of new devices, architectures, and applications. Although these materials and applications are being developed at an explosive pace, a fundamental understanding of any potential human health and environmental risks resulting from exposure throughout the lifecycle of these materials has not advanced as rapidly. Past experience has demonstrated that successful introduction of a new technology occurs more readily if it is precipitated by a robust appreciation for any inherent risks associated with the technology. Such understanding allows the timely development of occupational and consumer exposure standards that might be needed to protect human health and the environment. Although risk is recognized as the product of hazard and exposure, too often exposure patterns are poorly characterized, and risk is based primarily or exclusively on the hazard characterization. The extent of exposure to nanomaterials in currently available commercial products is relatively unknown. Given the number of commercial products that claim to contain engineered nanomaterials, it is possible that human and environmental exposure to these materials is widespread. This paper is intended to highlight the importance of exposure assessment for determining the potential risks of nanomaterials. In essence, this is a call to action to the community of exposure scientists, toxicologists, and risk assessors to develop, consider, and incorporate requisite exposure information in the risk assessment of nanomaterials. Without an integrated approach, it will be difficult to meaningfully assess the risks of nanomaterials, realize their potential benefits, and foster their sustainable development. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  7. Zika virus and assisted reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro, Christina N; Bano, Rashda; Washington Cross, Chantel I; Segars, James H

    2017-06-01

    Due to the fact that the Zika virus can be sexually transmitted, there is a potential risk for disease transmission at several stages of assisted reproduction. Such a possibility poses a serious challenge to couples pursing fertility with reproductive technologies. Here, we discuss what is known regarding Zika virus infection with respect to sexual transmission and correlate this knowledge with recent recommendations in the realm of infertility treatment. Zika virus can be transmitted from infected men and women through vaginal, oral or anal intercourse. Zika virus RNA has been detected in blood, semen, cervical mucus and vaginal fluid. Currently, the Centers for Disease Control recommends that infected men wait 6 months, and infected women 8 weeks, prior to attempting pregnancy. Reproductive tissue donors should wait 6 months before giving a specimen. Further study of Zika virus transmission in different reproductive tissues and establishment of validated testing methods for viral disease transmissibility are urgently needed. Reproductive technologists need to establish screening, testing and laboratory protocols aimed to reduce the risk of Zika virus transmission during assisted reproduction.

  8. HIV Risks, Testing, and Treatment in the Former Soviet Union: Challenges and Future Directions in Research and Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Victoria M

    2015-01-01

    The dissolution of the USSR resulted in independence for constituent republics but left them battling an unstable economic environment and healthcare. Increases in injection drug use, prostitution, and migration were all widespread responses to this transition and have contributed to the emergence of an HIV epidemic in the countries of former Soviet Union. Researchers have begun to identify the risks of HIV infection as well as the barriers to HIV testing and treatment in the former Soviet Union. Significant methodological challenges have arisen and need to be addressed. The objective of this review is to determine common threads in HIV research in the former Soviet Union and provide useful recommendations for future research studies. In this systematic review of the literature, Pubmed was searched for English-language studies using the key search terms "HIV", "AIDS", "human immunodeficiency virus", "acquired immune deficiency syndrome", "Central Asia", "Kazakhstan", "Kyrgyzstan", "Uzbekistan", "Tajikistan", "Turkmenistan", "Russia", "Ukraine", "Armenia", "Azerbaijan", and "Georgia". Studies were evaluated against eligibility criteria for inclusion. Thirty-nine studies were identified across the two main topic areas of HIV risk and barriers to testing and treatment, themes subsequently referred to as "risk" and "barriers". Study design was predominantly cross-sectional. The most frequently used sampling methods were peer-to-peer and non-probabilistic sampling. The most frequently reported risks were condom misuse, risky intercourse, and unsafe practices among injection drug users. Common barriers to testing included that testing was inconvenient, and that results would not remain confidential. Frequent barriers to treatment were based on a distrust in the treatment system. The findings of this review reveal methodological limitations that span the existing studies. Small sample size, cross-sectional design, and non-probabilistic sampling methods were frequently

  9. Reproductive desires and intentions of HIV‑positive women of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key words: HIV‑positive women of reproductive age; Jos; reproductive intention; serodiscordant or ... with plasma viral RNA suppression with HAART, can reduce the risk of ..... Evalution of sperm washing as a potential method of reducing.

  10. Provoking Aspiration: Risk-Management through the Cultivation of Future Selves in College Recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posecznick, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Drawing upon data from an ethnography of college admissions, I describe how the admissions' personnel and faculty mobilize persuasive scripts that invite prospective students to reimagine themselves as subjects with a fluid set of aspirations within the context of risky futures. The focus here is not on the representations of the college itself,…

  11. Detecting Market Transitions and Energy Futures Risk Management Using Principal Components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borovkova, S.A.

    2006-01-01

    An empirical approach to analysing the forward curve dynamics of energy futures is presented. For non-seasonal commodities-such as crude oil-the forward curve is well described by the first three principal components: the level, slope and curvature. A principal component indicator is described that

  12. Identifying primary care patients at risk for future diabetes and cardiovascular disease using electronic health records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrader Peter

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prevention of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD is possible but identification of at-risk patients for targeting interventions is a challenge in primary care. Methods We analyzed electronic health record (EHR data for 122,715 patients from 12 primary care practices. We defined patients with risk factor clustering using metabolic syndrome (MetS characteristics defined by NCEP-ATPIII criteria; if missing, we used surrogate characteristics, and validated this approach by directly measuring risk factors in a subset of 154 patients. For subjects with at least 3 of 5 MetS criteria measured at baseline (2003-2004, we defined 3 categories: No MetS (0 criteria; At-risk-for MetS (1-2 criteria; and MetS (≥ 3 criteria. We examined new diabetes and CHD incidence, and resource utilization over the subsequent 3-year period (2005-2007 using age-sex-adjusted regression models to compare outcomes by MetS category. Results After excluding patients with diabetes/CHD at baseline, 78,293 patients were eligible for analysis. EHR-defined MetS had 73% sensitivity and 91% specificity for directly measured MetS. Diabetes incidence was 1.4% in No MetS; 4.0% in At-risk-for MetS; and 11.0% in MetS (p MetS vs No MetS = 6.86 [6.06-7.76]; CHD incidence was 3.2%, 5.3%, and 6.4% respectively (p Conclusion Risk factor clustering in EHR data identifies primary care patients at increased risk for new diabetes, CHD and higher resource utilization.

  13. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

  14. Folate and human reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Tsunenobu; Picciano, Mary Frances

    2006-05-01

    The influence of folate nutritional status on various pregnancy outcomes has long been recognized. Studies conducted in the 1950s and 1960s led to the recognition of prenatal folic acid supplementation as a means to prevent pregnancy-induced megaloblastic anemia. In the 1990s, the utility of periconceptional folic acid supplementation and folic acid food fortification emerged when they were proven to prevent the occurrence of neural tube defects. These distinctively different uses of folic acid may well be ranked among the most significant public health measures for the prevention of pregnancy-related disorders. Folate is now viewed not only as a nutrient needed to prevent megaloblastic anemia in pregnancy but also as a vitamin essential for reproductive health. This review focuses on the relation between various outcomes of human reproduction (ie, pregnancy, lactation, and male reproduction) and folate nutrition and metabolism, homocysteine metabolism, and polymorphisms of genes that encode folate-related enzymes or proteins, and we identify issues for future research.

  15. Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

    2010-05-01

    Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk

  16. Regulatory Forum commentary: alternative mouse models for future cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Daniel; Sistare, Frank D; Nambiar, Prashant R; Turner, Oliver C; Radi, Zaher; Bower, Nancy

    2014-07-01

    International regulatory and pharmaceutical industry scientists are discussing revision of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) S1 guidance on rodent carcinogenicity assessment of small molecule pharmaceuticals. A weight-of-evidence approach is proposed to determine the need for rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with high human cancer risk, the product may be labeled appropriately without conducting rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with minimal cancer risk, only a 6-month transgenic mouse study (rasH2 mouse or p53+/- mouse) or a 2-year mouse study would be needed. If rodent carcinogenicity testing may add significant value to cancer risk assessment, a 2-year rat study and either a 6-month transgenic mouse or a 2-year mouse study is appropriate. In many cases, therefore, one rodent carcinogenicity study could be sufficient. The rasH2 model predicts neoplastic findings relevant to human cancer risk assessment as well as 2-year rodent models, produces fewer irrelevant neoplastic outcomes, and often will be preferable to a 2-year rodent study. Before revising ICH S1 guidance, a prospective evaluation will be conducted to test the proposed weight-of-evidence approach. This evaluation offers an opportunity for a secondary analysis comparing the value of alternative mouse models and 2-year rodent studies in the proposed ICH S1 weight-of-evidence approach for human cancer risk assessment. © 2014 by The Author(s).

  17. Flood Risk Management Policy in Scotland: Research Questions Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Mark; Hastings, Emily; MacDonald, Jannette

    2016-04-01

    Scotland's Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) delivers accessible research and expert opinion to support the Scottish Government and its delivery partners in the development and implementation of water policy. It was established in 2011 by the Scottish Government (Rural and Environmental Science and Analytical Services) in recognition of a gap in the provision of short term advice and research to policy (development and implementation). Key policy areas include the Water Framework Directive, Floods Directive, Drinking Water Directive, Habitats Directive and Scotland's Hydro Nation Strategy. CREW is unique in its demand-driven and free service for policy makers and practitioners, managing the engagement between scientists, policy makers and practitioners to work effectively across this interface. The users of CREW are the Scottish Government, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Scottish Natural Heritage and Scottish Water. CREW has funded around 100 projects relating to water policy since its inception in 2011. Of these, a significant number relate to flood risk management policy. Based on a review of work to date, this poster will give an overview of these projects and a forward look at the challenges that remain. From learning from community led flood risk management to surface water flood forecasting for urban communities, links will be made between sustainable and traditional flood risk management while considering the perceptions of stakeholders to flood risk management. How can we deliver fully integrated flood risk management options? How policy makers, scientists and land managers can better work together will also be explored.

  18. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  19. The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

    2014-02-01

    To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

  20. Is mammography screening history a predictor of future breast cancer risk?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Sune Bangsbøll; Törnberg, Sven; Kilpeläinen, Sini

    2015-01-01

    Inspired by the model by Walter and Day for risk of cervical cancer following negative screens, one might hypothesize that women in a mammography screening programme with a certain number of negative screens had a lower remaining breast cancer risk than that of women in general. We studied whether...... number of negative screens was a predictor for a low remaining breast cancer risk in women participating in the mammography screening programmes in Stockholm, Copenhagen and Funen. Data were collected from the mammography screening programmes in Stockholm, Sweden (1989-2012), Copenhagen, Denmark (1991......-2009) and Funen, Denmark (1993-2009), and linked to the respective cancer registries. We calculated cumulative hazard rates for breast cancer in women in cohorts defined by age at entry and number of negative screens for the maximum follow-up period in each screening centre. For all centres and cohorts...

  1. Rib fracture as a predictor of future fractures in young and older postmenopausal women: National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajjan, S. G.; Barrett-Connor, E.; McHorney, C. A.; Miller, P. D.; Sen, S. S.; Siris, E.

    2013-01-01

    Summary A rib fracture history after age 45 was associated with a 5.4-fold increase in new rib fracture risk and a 2.4-fold increase in risk of any new clinical fracture in 155,031 postmenopausal women. A rib fracture history suggests osteoporosis and should be considered when evaluating patients for interventions to prevent fractures. Introduction Until recently, little attention was paid to rib fracture as an osteoporosis marker. Emerging evidence suggests rib fracture may be an osteoporotic fracture in men and women. We report the 5-year independent association between baseline rib fracture histories and self-reported future fractures by age (decade) in the NORA cohort (155,031 postmenopausal women, 50–99 years). Methods Participants reported fracture history and responded to follow-up surveys at years 1, 3, or 6. Women with a baseline rib fracture history without other fractures were compared with women with no fracture. Results At baseline, 4,758 (3.07%) women reported a rib fracture history without other fractures; 6,300 women reported 6,830 new clinical fractures, including wrist (2,271), rib (1,891), spine (1,136), hip (941), and forearm (591). Adjusted relative risk (ARR) values (95% confidence interval [CI]) for future fractures in women with rib fracture history versus women with no fracture history were 5.4 (4.8–6.1) at the rib, 2.1 (1.7–2.6) at the spine, and 1.4 (1.1–1.7) at the wrist, and not significant for forearm or hip fractures. Future fracture risk was at least doubled in women with a rib fracture history in all ages: ARR (95% CI) 3.4 (2.8–4.0) for ages 50–59, 2.5 (2.1–3.0) for ages 60–69, 2.0 (1.7–2.3) for ages 70–79, and 2.0 (1.6–2.6) for ages >80. Conclusions Rib fracture, the second most common clinical fracture in women (after wrist fracture), predicted future fractures of the rib, wrist, and spine at all ages. Women presenting with rib fractures should be evaluated for appropriate management to prevent future

  2. Suicide risk in schizophrenia: learning from the past to change the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Maurizio; Amador, Xavier F; Girardi, Paolo; Harkavy-Friedman, Jill; Harrow, Martin; Kaplan, Kalman; Krausz, Michael; Lester, David; Meltzer, Herbert Y; Modestin, Jiri; Montross, Lori P; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Nielsen, Jimmi; Nordentoft, Merete; Saarinen, Pirjo Irmeli; Zisook, Sidney; Wilson, Scott T; Tatarelli, Roberto

    2007-03-16

    Suicide is a major cause of death among patients with schizophrenia. Research indicates that at least 5-13% of schizophrenic patients die by suicide, and it is likely that the higher end of range is the most accurate estimate. There is almost total agreement that the schizophrenic patient who is more likely to commit suicide is young, male, white and never married, with good premorbid function, post-psychotic depression and a history of substance abuse and suicide attempts. Hopelessness, social isolation, hospitalization, deteriorating health after a high level of premorbid functioning, recent loss or rejection, limited external support, and family stress or instability are risk factors for suicide in patients with schizophrenia. Suicidal schizophrenics usually fear further mental deterioration, and they experience either excessive treatment dependence or loss of faith in treatment. Awareness of illness has been reported as a major issue among suicidal schizophrenic patients, yet some researchers argue that insight into the illness does not increase suicide risk. Protective factors play also an important role in assessing suicide risk and should also be carefully evaluated. The neurobiological perspective offers a new approach for understanding self-destructive behavior among patients with schizophrenia and may improve the accuracy of screening schizophrenics for suicide. Although, there is general consensus on the risk factors, accurate knowledge as well as early recognition of patients at risk is still lacking in everyday clinical practice. Better knowledge may help clinicians and caretakers to implement preventive measures. This review paper is the result of a joint effort between researchers in the field of suicide in schizophrenia. Each expert provided a brief essay on one specific aspect of the problem. This is the first attempt to present a consensus report as well as the development of a set of guidelines for reducing suicide risk among schizophrenia

  3. Suicide risk in schizophrenia: learning from the past to change the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Jimmi

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Suicide is a major cause of death among patients with schizophrenia. Research indicates that at least 5–13% of schizophrenic patients die by suicide, and it is likely that the higher end of range is the most accurate estimate. There is almost total agreement that the schizophrenic patient who is more likely to commit suicide is young, male, white and never married, with good premorbid function, post-psychotic depression and a history of substance abuse and suicide attempts. Hopelessness, social isolation, hospitalization, deteriorating health after a high level of premorbid functioning, recent loss or rejection, limited external support, and family stress or instability are risk factors for suicide in patients with schizophrenia. Suicidal schizophrenics usually fear further mental deterioration, and they experience either excessive treatment dependence or loss of faith in treatment. Awareness of illness has been reported as a major issue among suicidal schizophrenic patients, yet some researchers argue that insight into the illness does not increase suicide risk. Protective factors play also an important role in assessing suicide risk and should also be carefully evaluated. The neurobiological perspective offers a new approach for understanding self-destructive behavior among patients with schizophrenia and may improve the accuracy of screening schizophrenics for suicide. Although, there is general consensus on the risk factors, accurate knowledge as well as early recognition of patients at risk is still lacking in everyday clinical practice. Better knowledge may help clinicians and caretakers to implement preventive measures. This review paper is the results of a joint effort between researchers in the field of suicide in schizophrenia. Each expert provided a brief essay on one specific aspect of the problem. This is the first attempt to present a consensus report as well as the development of a set of guidelines for reducing suicide

  4. Intervention in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis: a review and future directions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McGorry, Patrick D; Nelson, Barnaby; Amminger, G Paul

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Over the last 15 years, a focus on early intervention in psychotic disorders has emerged. Initially, the early psychosis movement focused on timely recognition and phase-specific treatment of first-episode psychosis. However, early psychosis researchers suspected that pushing the point...... of intervention even further back to the prodromal phase of psychotic disorders may result in even better outcomes. This article reviews intervention research in the ultra-high-risk phase of psychotic disorders. DATA SOURCES: A literature search of intervention trials with ultra-high-risk cohorts published after...

  5. The hole picture: risks, decision making, purpose, regulations, and the future of body piercing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Myrna L; Koch, Jerome R; Saunders, Jana C; Roberts, Alden E; Owen, Donna C

    2007-01-01

    Can it be said that body piercing is ubiquitous, found across all socioeconomic groups? The major concentration is among adolescents and young adults 15 to 30 years old, in some studies, 50% of the population. Commonly identified physical risks are bleeding, tissue trauma, and bacterial infections; psychosocial risks are unhappiness, low self-esteem, and disappointment. The Health Belief Model is used to explain decision making; purposes for body piercing consistently center on personal expression (self-identity) and uniqueness. The international and US body piercing regulations are discussed, leading to the need for tracking complications globally and standardization of regulations. Proactive health education for clients and health providers remains a priority.

  6. The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stone, Vicki; Führ, Martin; Feindt, Peter H

    2017-01-01

    that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration...... to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology....

  7. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests

    OpenAIRE

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and ...

  8. Clearing margin system in the futures markets—Applying the value-at-risk model to Taiwanese data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Chien-Liang; Chiang, Shu-Mei; Hung, Jui-Cheng; Chen, Yu-Lung

    2006-07-01

    This article sets out to investigate if the TAIFEX has adequate clearing margin adjustment system via unconditional coverage, conditional coverage test and mean relative scaled bias to assess the performance of three value-at-risk (VaR) models (i.e., the TAIFEX, RiskMetrics and GARCH-t). For the same model, original and absolute returns are compared to explore which can accurately capture the true risk. For the same return, daily and tiered adjustment methods are examined to evaluate which corresponds to risk best. The results indicate that the clearing margin adjustment of the TAIFEX cannot reflect true risks. The adjustment rules, including the use of absolute return and tiered adjustment of the clearing margin, have distorted VaR-based margin requirements. Besides, the results suggest that the TAIFEX should use original return to compute VaR and daily adjustment system to set clearing margin. This approach would improve the funds operation efficiency and the liquidity of the futures markets.

  9. Normal Female Reproductive Anatomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... historical Searches are case-insensitive Reproductive System, Female, Anatomy Add to My Pictures View /Download : Small: 720x756 ... Large: 3000x3150 View Download Title: Reproductive System, Female, Anatomy Description: Anatomy of the female reproductive system; drawing ...

  10. Reproduction, physiology and biochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    This chapter summarizes fundamental knowledge and recent discoveries about the reproduction, physiology and biochemistry of plant-parasitic nematodes. Various types of reproduction are reviewed, including sexual reproduction and mitotic and meiotic parthenogenesis. Although much is known about the p...

  11. Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.

    2015-12-01

    Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

  12. The effect of a hypocaloric diet with and without exercise training on body composition, cardiometabolic risk profile, and reproductive function in overweight and obese women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Rebecca L; Buckley, Jonathan D; Noakes, Manny; Clifton, Peter M; Norman, Robert J; Brinkworth, Grant D

    2008-09-01

    In overweight women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), the benefits of the addition of exercise to an energy-restricted diet in further improving cardiometabolic risk factors and reproductive function has not been extensively studied. The objective was to evaluate the effects of aerobic and aerobic-resistance exercise when combined with an energy-restricted high protein diet (5000-6000 kJ/d) on metabolic risk factors and reproductive function in women with PCOS. A 20-wk outpatient, randomized, parallel study was conducted in a metropolitan research clinic. Ninety-four overweight and obese women with PCOS (age 29.3 +/- 0.7 yr; body mass index 36.1 +/- 0.5 kg/m2) were randomized to diet only (DO; n = 30), diet and aerobic exercise (DA; n = 31), or diet and combined aerobic-resistance exercise (DC; n = 33). Weight, body composition, cardiometabolic risk factors, hormonal status, menstrual cyclicity, and ovulatory function were assessed. All interventions reduced weight (DO 8.9 +/- 1.6%, DA 10.6 +/- 1.7%, and DC 8.7 +/- 1.7%; P cardiometabolic, hormonal, and reproductive outcomes relative to diet alone.

  13. Characteristics of construction firms at risk for future workers' compensation claims using administrative data systems, Washington State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Jennifer L; Foley, Michael; Adams, Darrin; Bonauto, Dave

    2018-06-01

    Construction is high-hazard industry, and continually ranks among those with the highest workers' compensation (WC) claim rates in Washington State (WA). However, not all construction firms are at equal risk. We tested the ability to identify those construction firms most at risk for future claims using only administrative WC and unemployment insurance data. We collected information on construction firms with 10-50 average full time equivalent (FTE) employees from the WA unemployment insurance and WC data systems (n=1228). Negative binomial regression was used to test the ability of firm characteristics measured during 2011-2013 to predict time-loss claim rates in the following year, 2014. Claim rates in 2014 varied by construction industry groups, ranging from 0.7 (Land Subdivision) to 4.6 (Foundation, Structure, and Building Construction) claims per 100 FTE. Construction firms with higher average WC premium rates, a history of WC claims, increasing number of quarterly FTE, and lower average wage rates during 2011-2013 were predicted to have higher WC claim rates in 2014. We demonstrate the ability to leverage administrative data to identify construction firms predicted to have future WC claims. This study should be repeated to determine if these results are applicable to other high-hazard industries. Practical Applications: This study identified characteristics that may be used to further refine targeted outreach and prevention to construction firms at risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Childhood body mass index in relation to future risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cook, M B; Freedman, N D; Gamborg, M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Middle-aged obese adults are at substantially elevated risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. It is unclear whether this risk originates earlier in life. METHODS: We assessed associations between childhood body mass index (BMI) and height-measured annually between ages 7 and 13-with adult....... RESULTS: During 5.4 million person-years of follow-up, 254 (216 males) incident oesophageal adenocarcinomas occurred. At each examined age, cancer risk increased linearly per unit BMI z-score, although associations were only statistically significant for ages 9-13. The HR for the age of 13 years was 1.......31 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.51) per unit BMI z-score. Associations were similar in men and women and across birth cohorts. Childhood height was not related to cancer risk in men but was in women, although these analyses included just 38 female cases. HRs per unit height z-score at the age of 13 years were 1...

  15. Childhood Height and Birth Weight in Relation to Future Prostate Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cook, Michael B; Gamborg, Michael; Aarestrup, Julie

    2013-01-01

    Adult height has been positively associated with prostate cancer risk. However, the exposure window of importance is currently unknown and assessments of height during earlier growth periods are scarce. In addition, the association between birth weight and prostate cancer remains undetermined. We...