WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk-based fals requirements

  1. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  2. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  3. 12 CFR 956.4 - Risk-based capital requirement for investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for investments... OFF-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK INVESTMENTS § 956.4 Risk-based capital requirement for investments. Each Bank shall hold retained earnings plus general allowance for losses as support for the...

  4. Risk based maintenance: Resource requirements and organizational challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerakkody, S.D.

    2000-01-01

    10CFR50.65 'Requirements for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants' required licensees to monitor the performance or condition of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) against licensee established goals, in a manner sufficient to provide reasonable assurance that such SSCs are capable of fulfilling their intended functions. The goals were required to be commensurate with safety significance and operating experience. Northeast Utilities relied upon PRAs to implement 10CFR50.65, which is also referred to as the 'Maintenance Rule'. The Maintenance Rule changed some aspects of maintenance of structures, systems, and components (SSC) at nuclear power plants. One objective of the rule was to focus the maintenance resources based on risk significance of components. This paper will discuss the organizational challenges and resource requirements associated with implementation of the Maintenance Rule at nuclear facilities that are supported by the Northeast Utilities Services Company (NUSCo). The paper will discuss (a) how these challenges were addressed, (b) the resources required for ongoing efforts to support the Maintenance Rule, and (c) several key safety benefits derived from the implementation of the Maintenance Rule. (author)

  5. 12 CFR 955.6 - Risk-based capital requirement for acquired member assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... losses as support for the credit risk of all AMA estimated by the Bank to represent a credit risk that is...) Recalculation of credit enhancement. For risk-based capital purposes, each Bank shall recalculate the estimated... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for acquired...

  6. Risk-Based Confidentiality Requirements Specification for Outsourced IT Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Today, companies are required to be in control of their IT assets, and to provide proof of this in the form of independent IT audit reports. However, many companies have outsourced various parts of their IT systems to other companies, which potentially threatens the control they have of their IT

  7. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  8. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  9. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  10. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  11. Advantages and disadvantages of a risk - based regulatory requirement (the experience in Argentina)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, Jorge

    2006-01-01

    Argentina has its own nuclear regulations, which include a risk-based criterion curve for the licensing of nuclear installations. This requirement, established in the early '70s, must be fulfilled with a PSA study. It has been applied to several installations, and the advantages and disadvantages of this approach are discussed in the paper through several examples. The main disadvantage is a somehow large amount of PSA work that needs to be performed for the licensing of a nuclear installation. The main advantage is the effective risk reduction that can be achieved by retrofitting the risk-based lessons learned into the design teams (not only for design of systems and components, but also for design of operation, testing and maintenance schemes). (author)

  12. Pre-test calculations for FAL-19 and FAL-20 using the ITHACA code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, S.J.; Ketchell, N.

    1992-08-01

    Falcon is a small scale experimental apparatus, designed to simulate the transport of fission products through the primary circuit and containment of a nuclear power reactor under severe accident conditions. Information gained from the experiments in Falcon will be used to guide and assist in understanding the much larger Phebus-FP experiments. This report presents the results of pre-test calculations performed using ITHACA for the two tests: FAL-19 and FAL-20. Initial calculations were concerned solely with the thermal-hydraulic conditions in the containment while later ones briefly investigated the effect of the injection of an insoluble aerosol into the containment with the same thermal-hydraulic conditions. (author)

  13. PSA requirements for use in the safety management. Risk based indicators and the configurational control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show the role of the risk based indicators- namely the core damage frequency (CDFI), the core damage probability indicators (CDPI) and the importance of the equipment together- in the risk based configuration control. 1 fig

  14. RiskREP : risk-based security requirements elicitation and prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, A.; Morali, A.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement "good-enough security" but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  15. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  16. Soils Project Risk-Based Corrective Action Evaluation Process with ROTC 1 and ROTC 2, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick; Sloop, Christina

    2012-04-01

    This document formally defines and clarifies the NDEP-approved process the NNSA/NSO Soils Activity uses to fulfill the requirements of the FFACO and state regulations. This process is used to establish FALs in accordance with the risk-based corrective action (RBCA) process stipulated in Chapter 445 of the Nevada Administrative Code (NAC) as described in the ASTM International (ASTM) Method E1739-95 (NAC, 2008; ASTM, 1995). It is designed to provide a set of consistent standards for chemical and radiological corrective actions.

  17. Risk-Based Confidentiality Requirements Specification for Outsourced IT Systems (Extended Version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of their IT assets, and to provide proof of this in the form of independent IT audit reports. However, many companies have outsourced various parts of their IT systems to other companies, which potentially threatens the control they have of their IT

  18. 75 FR 10973 - Hazardous Materials: Risk-Based Adjustment of Transportation Security Plan Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-09

    ... (explosive) material; (3) More than 1 L (1.06 qt.) per package of a material poisonous by inhalation in... controlled; and 6.1 materials poisonous by inhalation. We also proposed to require security plans for any... happens very rapidly, and in the process, the propane combines readily with air to form fuel air mixtures...

  19. Risk based definition of TS requirements for NPPs with WWER-1000 type reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morozov, V.; Tokmachev, G.

    2000-01-01

    The main regulations in safety related maintenance for NPPs in Russia are defined as a part of Technical Specifications (TSs). It includes limiting conditions for operation (surveillance requirements, allowed outage time, et.). In Russian practice the two levels of TSs are presented: general TSs that have been established as a master documents for similar designed NPPs and plant specific based on operation practice of each NPP unit. This paper presents a brief review of submissions to TS changes for NPPs with WWER type reactor were issued by AEP PSA team since 1988 year. Besides it provides an approach allows to estimate the complex affect on plant risk for both Limiting Conditions of Operation (LCO) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STI) based on relevant probabilistic tool (Minimal Cut Sets method and Marcov Chains methods). (author)

  20. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  1. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  2. Risk-based Strategy to Determine Testing Requirement for the Removal of Residual Process Reagents as Process-related Impurities in Bioprocesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jinshu; Li, Kim; Miller, Karen; Raghani, Anil

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to recommend a risk-based strategy for determining clearance testing requirements of the process reagents used in manufacturing biopharmaceutical products. The strategy takes account of four risk factors. Firstly, the process reagents are classified into two categories according to their safety profile and history of use: generally recognized as safe (GRAS) and potential safety concern (PSC) reagents. The clearance testing of GRAS reagents can be eliminated because of their safe use historically and process capability to remove these reagents. An estimated safety margin (Se) value, a ratio of the exposure limit to the estimated maximum reagent amount, is then used to evaluate the necessity for testing the PSC reagents at an early development stage. The Se value is calculated from two risk factors, the starting PSC reagent amount per maximum product dose (Me), and the exposure limit (Le). A worst-case scenario is assumed to estimate the Me value, that is common. The PSC reagent of interest is co-purified with the product and no clearance occurs throughout the entire purification process. No clearance testing is required for this PSC reagent if its Se value is ≥1; otherwise clearance testing is needed. Finally, the point of the process reagent introduction to the process is also considered in determining the necessity of the clearance testing for process reagents. How to use the measured safety margin as a criterion for determining PSC reagent testing at process characterization, process validation, and commercial production stages are also described. A large number of process reagents are used in the biopharmaceutical manufacturing to control the process performance. Clearance testing for all of the process reagents will be an enormous analytical task. In this article, a risk-based strategy is described to eliminate unnecessary clearance testing for majority of the process reagents using four risk factors. The risk factors included

  3. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  4. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  5. A molecular chaperone activity of CCS restores the maturation of SOD1 fALS mutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchinat, Enrico; Barbieri, Letizia; Banci, Lucia

    2017-12-12

    Superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) is an important metalloprotein for cellular oxidative stress defence, that is mutated in familiar variants of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (fALS). Some mutations destabilize the apo protein, leading to the formation of misfolded, toxic species. The Copper Chaperone for SOD1 (CCS) transiently interacts with SOD1 and promotes its correct maturation by transferring copper and catalyzing disulfide bond formation. By in vitro and in-cell NMR, we investigated the role of the SOD-like domain of CCS (CCS-D2). We showed that CCS-D2 forms a stable complex with zinc-bound SOD1 in human cells, that has a twofold stabilizing effect: it both prevents the accumulation of unstructured mutant SOD1 and promotes zinc binding. We further showed that CCS-D2 interacts with apo-SOD1 in vitro, suggesting that in cells CCS stabilizes mutant apo-SOD1 prior to zinc binding. Such molecular chaperone function of CCS-D2 is novel and its implications in SOD-linked fALS deserve further investigation.

  6. Falácia naturalista e naturalismo moral: do é ao deve mediante o quero

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Naves de Brito

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste texto é discutir alguns argumentos contra a aceitação da falácia naturalista. Pretende-se mostrar aspectos que parecem corretos na argumentação dos que recusam aquela falácia, e, a despeito de seus acertos, demonstrar que estão fundamentalmente errados. O eixo para este desfecho é a reformulação da falácia em termos da recusa da implicação entre o ser e o querer. Espera-se, assim, tornar mais claras as relações - e a ausência delas - entre verdade e moral, bem como abrir espaço para a defesa de um naturalismo moral não comprometido com a existência de fatos morais. Este texto está dividido em cinco partes. Na primeira, apresenta-se a falácia naturalista de acordo com Moore; na segunda, distingue-se essa entre as formulações de Moore e de Hume; na terceira, apresentam-se objeções à interdição da passagem do "é" ao "deve" e se formulam respostas a essas objeções; na quarta, reapresenta-se o problema da interdição entre "é" e "deve" e se focaliza uma solução alternativa a ele mediante o querer; e, finalmente, na quinta parte, elaboram-se algumas conclusões acerca do naturalismo e do realismo na moral.This article aims to discuss some arguments against the acceptance of the naturalistic fallacy. It intends to demonstrate that some aspects, which seem to be correct in the argumentation of those who refuse that fallacy, are, despite their pertinence in some points, fundamentally imprecise. In order to reach this outcome, the fallacy is reformulated in terms of the refuse of the implication between "being" and "the will". Therefore, it pretends to clarify the relations - and their absence - between truth and morality as well as enable a defense of a moral naturalism disengaged from the existence of moral facts. This text is divided in five parts. In the first one, I show the naturalistic fallacy according to Moore; in the second part, a distinction between Moore's and Hume's formulations of the

  7. Early Engagement of Safety and Mission Assurance Expertise Using Systems Engineering Tools: A Risk-Based Approach to Early Identification of Safety and Assurance Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darpel, Scott; Beckman, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Decades of systems engineering practice have demonstrated that the earlier the identification of requirements occurs, the lower the chance that costly redesigns will needed later in the project life cycle. A better understanding of all requirements can also improve the likelihood of a design's success. Significant effort has been put into developing tools and practices that facilitate requirements determination, including those that are part of the model-based systems engineering (MBSE) paradigm. These efforts have yielded improvements in requirements definition, but have thus far focused on a design's performance needs. The identification of safety & mission assurance (S&MA) related requirements, in comparison, can occur after preliminary designs are already established, yielding forced redesigns. Engaging S&MA expertise at an earlier stage, facilitated by the use of MBSE tools, and focused on actual project risk, can yield the same type of design life cycle improvements that have been realized in technical and performance requirements.

  8. O problema da falácia naturalista para o projeto de uma ética evolucionista

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla Chediak

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Um dos problemas mais difíceis enfrentados pelos defensores de uma ética evolucionista é a falácia naturalista. Neste artigo, analisamos as soluções propostas por W. Rottschaefer e por R. Richards e verificamos não serem elas suficientes para eliminar o problema da falácia naturalista sem comprometer a especificidade da moral.One of the most difficult problems for who defends an evolutionary ethics is the naturalist fallacy. In this article, we examine the solutions proposed by W. Rottschaefer and R. Richards. We believe that these solutions are not good enough to completely eliminate the problem of the naturalist fallacy without compromising the specificity of morality.

  9. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  10. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  11. CIEMAT contribution to the international standard problem ISP-34: contain analysis of FAL-ISP 1 test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L.E.; Polo, J.

    1994-01-01

    CIEMAT, along with a great number of international laboratories, has participated in the open exercise of the first International Standard Problem addressing fission product transport issues. The FAL-ISP 1, aimed to study particle agglomeration, has been simulated with CONTAIN code. The thermalhydraulic results obtained have been satisfactory and aerosols ones have been reasonably accurate. However, some discrepancies appeared between predictions and experimental data; these are essentially related to the injection phase of the experiment, where the major influence of input approximations took place. In addition, the rationalization of discrepancies pointed potential data inconsistencies. Some parametric studies showed the results sensitivity to input assumptions concerning aerosol characterization and default values in CONTAIN; in general, they confirmed the suitability of most of the approximations taken. (Author)

  12. Ciemat Contribution to The International Standard Problem ISP-34: Contain Analysis of Fal-ISP 1 Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L. E.; Polo, J.

    1994-01-01

    CIEMAT, along with a great number of international laboratories, has participated in the open exercise of the first International Standard Problem addressing fission product transport issues. The FAL-ISP 1, aimed to study particle agglomeration, has been simulated with CONTAIN code. The therma hydraulic results obtained have been satisfactory and aerosol ones have been reasonably accurate. However, some discrepancies appeared between predictions and experimental data; these are essentially related to the injection phase of the experiment, where the major influence of input approximations took place. In addition, the rationalization of discrepancies pointed potential data inconsistencies. Some parametric studies showed the results sensitivity to input assumptions concerning aerosol characterization and default values in CONTAIN; in general, they confirmed the suitability of most of the approximations taken. (Author) 11 refs

  13. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  14. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  15. FORTUNE-TELLING IN THE SEYAHATNAME OF EVLIYA CELEBI EVLİYA ÇELEBİ SEYAHATMESİ’NDE FAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elif DÜLGER

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available According to the Turkish Folklore Archive Guide prepared in 1976by the National Folklore Research Deparment of Ministry of Culture ofthe time, which is now called the Ministry of Culture directorate generalfor research and development of folk culture, article „K‟ in the guide wasdesignated for beliefs, while the subjects of Turkish folklore was beingdetermined. In this part of the guide which was prepared based on thecategorization in hundreds, dream and fortune-telling appears in the „K700‟ category. As is understood from this information, we come across fortunetellingin the part which is designated for beliefs in folklore. Fortunetellingupon which little study is conducted is a branch of Turkishfolklore -handled in different researches- and it bears importance in thatit shows people‟s approach to supernatural powers.This study is based on assessing information related to fortunetellingwhich was recorded while giving information about various placesin Seyahatname,which is an important work as far as Turkish culturalhistory, literature and folk science is considered. The main aim of ourstudy is to include this important work of our cultural history in theresearches on fortune-telling and to form the basis for the studies that weare going to carry out on fortunetelling on which little research isconducted. 1976 yılında, şimdiki adı Kültür Bakanlığı Halk KültürleriniAraştırma ve Geliştirme Genel Müdürlüğü olan, zamanın KültürBakanlığı Millî Folklor Araştırma Dairesi Başkanlığı tarafındanhazırlanan Türk Folklor Arşiv Kılavuzuna göre Türk folklorunun konularıbelirlenirken kılavuzun “K” maddesi inanışlara ayrılmıştır. 100‟lükkodlama seviyesinde hazırlanan kılavuzun bu bölümünde “K 700”kodlamasında rüya ve fal yer almaktadır.Bu bilgilerden anlaşıldığı üzere fal, folklorun inanışlar bölümündekarşımıza çıkmaktadır. Değişik araştırmalarda ele alınan T

  16. Effect of CCS on the accumulation of FALS SOD1 mutant-containing aggregates and on mitochondrial translocation of SOD1 mutants: implication of a free radical hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ha Kun; Chung, Youn Wook; Chock, P Boon; Yim, Moon B

    2011-05-15

    Missense mutations of SOD1 are linked to familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) through a yet-to-be identified toxic-gain-of-function. One of the proposed mechanisms involves enhanced aggregate formation. However, a recent study showed that dual transgenic mice overexpressing both G93A and CCS copper chaperone (G93A/CCS) exhibit no SOD1-positive aggregates yet show accelerated FALS symptoms with enhanced mitochondrial pathology compared to G93A mice. Using a dicistronic mRNA to simultaneously generate hSOD1 mutants, G93A, A4V and G85R, and hCCS in AAV293 cells, we revealed: (i) CCS is degraded primarily via a macroautophagy pathway. It forms a stable heterodimer with inactive G85R, and via its novel copper chaperone-independent molecular chaperone activity facilitates G85R degradation via a macroautophagy-mediated pathway. For active G93A and A4V, CCS catalyzes their maturation to form active and soluble homodimers. (ii) CCS reduces, under non-oxidative conditions, yet facilitates in the presence of H(2)O(2), mitochondrial translocation of inactive SOD1 mutants. These results, together with previous reports showing FALS SOD1 mutants enhanced free radical-generating activity, provide a mechanistic explanation for the observations with G93A/CCS dual transgenic mice and suggest that free radical generation by FALS SOD1, enhanced by CCS, may, in part, be responsible for the FALS SOD1 mutant-linked aggregation, mitochondrial translocation, and degradation. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  18. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  19. Conseqüências da falência de um Estado: pirataria nas águas da Somália

    OpenAIRE

    FARID ZAGO, EVANDRO; KORAI PINHEIRO MINILLO, XAMAN

    2008-01-01

    Anos de falência estatal culminam no

    desenvolvimento, na costa da Somália, do maior pólo

    de pirataria do mundo.

  20. Conseqüências da falência de um Estado: pirataria nas águas da Somália

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EVANDRO FARID ZAGO

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available

    Anos de falência estatal culminam no

    desenvolvimento, na costa da Somália, do maior pólo

    de pirataria do mundo.

  1. 12 CFR 652.100 - Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Audit of the risk-based capital stress test... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test. You must have a qualified, independent external auditor review...

  2. 76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-15

    ... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

  3. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  4. Summary Report for the Evaluation of Current QA Processes Within the FRMAC FAL and EPA MERL.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanks, Sonoya T.; Ted Redding; Lynn Jaussi; Allen, Mark B.; Fournier, Sean Donovan; Leonard, Elliott J.

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) relies on accurate and defensible analytical laboratory data to support its mission. Therefore, FRMAC must ensure that the environmental analytical laboratories providing analytical services maintain an ongoing capability to provide accurate analytical results to DOE. It is undeniable that the more Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) measures required of the laboratory, the less resources that are available for analysis of response samples. Being that QA and QC measures in general are understood to comprise a major effort related to a laboratory’s operations, requirements should only be considered if they are deemed “value-added” for the FRMAC mission. This report provides observations of areas for improvement and potential interoperability opportunities in the areas of Batch Quality Control Requirements, Written Communications, Data Review Processes, Data Reporting Processes, along with the lessons learned as they apply to items in the early phase of a response that will be critical for developing a more efficient, integrated response for future interactions between the FRMAC and EPA assets.

  5. EL MAESTRO ORLANDO FALS BORDA SUS IDEAS EDUCATIVAS Y SOCIALES PARA EL CAMBIO EN LA SOCIEDAD COLOMBIANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Ocampo López

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo de investigación de HISULA en la serie de Educadores Latinoamericanos tiene por objeto el estudio de las ideas educativas y la metodología científica de la Investigación-Acción Participativa del educador Dr. Orlando Fals Borda, uno de los grandes ideólogos de la educación universitaria en Colombia. Se preocupa por el análisis de sus principales obras relacionadas con el estudio sociológico de los campesinos de los Andes y el Hombre y la Tierra en la región cundiboyacense del Altiplano Andino. Este ilustre educador barranquillero hizo sus trabajos de investigación sociológica del pueblo colombiano y defendió el papel de la educación en el cambio social. Con su metodología de la investigación-acción participativa señaló los nuevos rumbos de la educación colombiana centrada en el alumno y en la filosofía del "aprender haciendo". En sus actividades docentes formó una generación de sociólogos dedicados a la investigación social en una época de crisis y de cambios. Por ello su acción se realizó en la Facultad de Sociología de la Universidad Nacional y en sus investigaciones científicas y educativas, destacando su metodología de "La investigación-Acción Participativa". Su actuación fue definitiva como ideólogo de la Constitución Nacional de 1991, en la cual se plasmaron algunas de sus ideas.

  6. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  7. Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

    1991-08-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  9. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  10. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  11. 75 FR 82317 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-30

    ... leverage or risk-based capital requirements in effect for insured depository institutions as of the date of..., sections 171(b)(1) and (2) specify that the minimum leverage and risk- based capital requirements...)(1) and (2) specify that the Federal banking agencies may not establish leverage or risk-based...

  12. Hipotermia terapêutica como ponte até transplante em pacientes com falência hepática fulminante

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Castillo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Os tópicos mais importantes na falência hepática fulminante são o edema cerebral e a hipertensão intracraniana. Dentre todas as opções terapêuticas, tem sido relatado que a hipotermia sistêmica induzida em níveis entre 33 - 34ºC reduz a elevação da pressão e aumenta o tempo durante o qual os pacientes podem tolerar um enxerto. Esta revisão discutiu as indicações e os efeitos adversos da hipotermia.

  13. Uma estimativa do custo de subordinação da dívida financeira estabelecida pela atual lei de falência

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Securato

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar o impacto no custo de endividamento das empresas devido à ordem de prioridade de pagamento das dívidas corporativas em caso de falência. A nova Lei de Falência em tramitação no Congresso Nacional, Projeto de Lei 4.376, define a ordem de classificação dos créditos na falência pelo artigo 83. A atual Lei de Falência estabelece que as dívidas trabalhistas, previdenciárias e tributárias possuem prioridade de pagamento às demais dívidas. Entende-se, portanto, que existe uma subordinação das dívidas contratadas junto aos bancos e investidores com relação aos passivos prioritários. Este estudo estima o custo de subordinação do passivo financeiro - empréstimos e financiamentos - aos passivos com preferência de pagamento. Primeiro, obteve-se evidência a favor do modelo de precificação, através da comparação do valor do passivo obtido pela aplicação do modelo com o valor de mercado, e finalmente, calculou-se uma média de 0,30%a.a. de custo de subordinação dos passivos financeiros.This paper studies the debt cost effect caused by the payment order when liquidating its liabilities in case of corporate bankruptcy established by the current Bankruptcy Legislation. The new Bankruptcy Legislation under discussion at the Brazilian Congress, Law project 4.376, defines the liability ranking order in case of Bankruptcy in article 86. The current Brazilian bankruptcy regulation defines that employee, social security and fiscal liabilities must be settled before other liabilities such as asset backed debt securities, suppliers and loans. Therefore, there is a subordination of financial liabilities - loans and financing contracted with banks and investors compared to those liabilities with liquidation priority. This research estimates the cost of subordination of financial liabilities. First, we applied the binomial model to estimate the present value of corporate liabilities and its

  14. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  15. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  16. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  17. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  18. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  19. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  20. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  1. Falência é fracasso? O caso da Associação dos Produtores Alternativos de Ouro Preto do Oeste, Rondônia, Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Kohler

    Full Text Available O artigo examina a falência da Associação dos Produtores Alternativos (APA de Ouro Preto do Oeste, em Rondônia, buscando identificar elementos estruturantes e explicativos das relações entre atores locais e evidenciando seus próprios quadros interpretativos. A partir de um breve histórico da implantação do Projeto Integrado de Colonização (PIC Ouro Preto do Oeste, são destacadas a origem social dos colonos, sua cultura política e o tipo de capital social construído nos assentamentos. Por outro lado, apresenta-se a lógica das instituições envolvidas no desenvolvimento desse projeto. As relações entre os diversos atores institucionais são apresentadas como uma rede multiconectada, unindo os níveis local, regional, nacional e internacional. A análise mostra o descompasso entre a visão econômica das instituições de apoio, voltadas para a produção, e as aspirações dos produtores da APA. Ao final, concluímos que a falência pode estar associada a dois fatores interligados: a 'desconfiança' dos produtores da APA em relação aos órgãos de apoio à agricultura familiar (Comissão Executiva do Plano da Lavoura Cacaueira, Agência de Defesa Sanitária Agrosilvopastoril do Estado de Rondônia, Empresa de Assistência Técnica e Extensão Rural e a ausência dos governos estadual e municipal no grupo de atores do sistema de redes multiconectadas, no qual poderiam ter desempenhado um papel de mediadores entre aquelas diferentes aspirações. Finalmente, a questão colocada relativiza a noção de 'fracasso' associada à falência.

  2. Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

    2017-05-01

    Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  3. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  4. Falácias acadêmicas, 15: o modo repetitivo de produção do marxismo vulgar no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto Almeida

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Descrição do fenômeno da degeneração do marxismo em universidades brasileiras, mediante o acúmulo de pastiches de má qualidade da obra original, o que resulta na emergência de um “modo repetitivo de produção”, consistindo na assemblagem de slogans derivados da fonte inicial, mas sem qualquer conexão com a realidade do mundo corrente. Exposição das falácias mais comuns nesse tipo de vulgarização, que constitui uma contrafação do verdadeiro marxismo.

  5. Sul concetto di ‘accessibilità’: l’esperienza dell’Unità di ricerca FAL del DIDA-Unifi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuela Morelli

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility is a complex issue that also concerns the fruition of the public space of the city, but in Italy it is presented mainly as yet another aseptic technical-normative requisite to satisfy. The UdR FAL of DIDA born with the intention to widen this term and to spread a new cultural approach in which “accessibility habitat” is transformed into “a great resource for the collective human empowerment, to make it viable, safe and cohesive local communities, for the development of the architectural and landscape heritage”. Or rather “it indicates the ability of a habitat to ensure an independent life to every person, regardless of age, gender, cultural background and the physical, sensory and cognitive”.

  6. Non-invasive glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor imaging in pancreas with {sup 18}F-Al labeled Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mi, Baoming [Department of Nuclear Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215006 (China); Department of Nuclear Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University (Wuxi 4th People' s Hospital), Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214062 (China); Xu, Yuping [Key Laboratory of Nuclear Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214063 (China); Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029 (China); Pan, Donghui; Wang, Lizhen; Yang, Runlin [Key Laboratory of Nuclear Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214063 (China); Yu, Chunjing; Wan, Weixing [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University (Wuxi 4th People' s Hospital), Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214062 (China); Wu, Yiwei, E-mail: wuyiwei3988@gmail.com [Department of Nuclear Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215006 (China); Yang, Min, E-mail: ymzfk@yahoo.com.hk [Key Laboratory of Nuclear Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214063 (China); Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029 (China)

    2016-02-26

    Purpose: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) is abundantly expressed on beta cells and may be an ideal target for the pancreas imaging. Monitoring the GLP-1R of pancreas could be benefit for understanding the pathophysiology of diabetes. In the present study, {sup 18}F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog, {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4, was evaluated for PET imaging GLP-1R in the pancreas. Methods: The targeting of {sup 18}F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog was examined in healthy and streptozotocin induced diabetic rats. Rats were injected with {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4 and microPET imaging was performed at 1 h postinjection, followed by ex vivo biodistribution. GLP-1R expression in pancreas was determined through post mortern examinations. Results: The pancreas of healthy rats was readily visualized after administration of {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4, whereas the pancreas of diabetic rats, as well as those from rats co-injected with excess of unlabeled peptides, was barely visible by microPET. At 60 min postinjection, the pancreatic uptakes were 1.02 ± 0.15%ID/g and 0.23 ± 0.05%ID/g in healthy and diabetic rats respectively. Under block, the pancreatic uptakes of non-diabetic rats reduced to 0.21 ± 0.07%ID/g at the same time point. Biodistribution data and IHC staining confirmed the findings of the microPET imaging. Conclusion: The favorable preclinical data indicated that {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4may be suitable for non-invasive monitoring functional pancreatic beta cells.

  7. Réquiem para un cóndor ciego: Juan Lavalle según la visión estetizada de la dupla Sabato-Falú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Mamani

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo indaga las estrategias desplegadas por Ernesto Sabato para la difusión de su particular visión de la historia argentina, especialmente de la controvertida figura del general Juan Lavalle. El deseo de terciar en el campo intelectual y político lo llevó a ensayar diversas formas de participación en los combates por la reinterpretación del pasado. Romance de la Muerte de Juan Lavalle, obra poético-musical realizada en colaboración con el músico folclórico Eduardo Falú, es abordada con la intención de analizar la construcción de discursos acerca del pasado desde ámbitos historiográficos no tradicionalesThis article inquires about the strategies suggested by Ernesto Sabato for the diffusion of his point of view about argentinean history and in special, general Juan Lavalle’s life. The author, in his will of participating in the intellectual and political field, essayed to diverse forms of participation in its re-interpretation of past. His piece of work entitled Romance de la Muerte de Juan Lavalle has been written in collaboration with native music composer Eduardo Falú. My intention is to remark some of the quarrels which took place in the field of "memories" in the purpose of analyze the construction of the differents discourses about past from non traditional historical enclosures

  8. Non-invasive glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor imaging in pancreas with (18)F-Al labeled Cys(39)-exendin-4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Baoming; Xu, Yuping; Pan, Donghui; Wang, Lizhen; Yang, Runlin; Yu, Chunjing; Wan, Weixing; Wu, Yiwei; Yang, Min

    2016-02-26

    Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) is abundantly expressed on beta cells and may be an ideal target for the pancreas imaging. Monitoring the GLP-1R of pancreas could be benefit for understanding the pathophysiology of diabetes. In the present study, (18)F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog, (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4, was evaluated for PET imaging GLP-1R in the pancreas. The targeting of (18)F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog was examined in healthy and streptozotocin induced diabetic rats. Rats were injected with (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4 and microPET imaging was performed at 1 h postinjection, followed by ex vivo biodistribution. GLP-1R expression in pancreas was determined through post mortern examinations. The pancreas of healthy rats was readily visualized after administration of (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4, whereas the pancreas of diabetic rats, as well as those from rats co-injected with excess of unlabeled peptides, was barely visible by microPET. At 60 min postinjection, the pancreatic uptakes were 1.02 ± 0.15%ID/g and 0.23 ± 0.05%ID/g in healthy and diabetic rats respectively. Under block, the pancreatic uptakes of non-diabetic rats reduced to 0.21 ± 0.07%ID/g at the same time point. Biodistribution data and IHC staining confirmed the findings of the microPET imaging. The favorable preclinical data indicated that (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4may be suitable for non-invasive monitoring functional pancreatic beta cells. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Regulatory requirements related to risk-based inspection and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeder, H.C.; Kauer, R.

    2003-01-01

    By asking the question why new inspection and maintenance strategies have to be developed one can often be made aware that there is always a continue demand for cost reduction and optimisation. In this framework, general trends involving staff reduction, outsourcing, benchmarking etc. can often be observed nearly everywhere. Since inspection and maintenance are amongst the few cost factors, which could be actively influenced in the short term, and in combination with the recent regulatory fundamental changes (e.g. PED) yielding to considerably greater responsibilities for the operator of a plant, also the demand for documentation and comprehensibility of measures will increase. (orig.)

  10. Automated analysis of security requirements through risk-based argumentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Yijun; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Tun, Thein Tan; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Nuseibeh, Bashar

    2015-01-01

    Computer-based systems are increasingly being exposed to evolving security threats, which often reveal new vulnerabilities. A formal analysis of the evolving threats is difficult due to a number of practical considerations such as incomplete knowledge about the design, limited information about

  11. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  12. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  13. Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floyd, S.D.

    1996-12-01

    Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

  14. A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

  15. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  16. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  17. 76 FR 12611 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-08

    ... necessary to calculate its required minimum risk-based capital requirements under both the general risk... to the advanced approaches rules must calculate and compare its minimum tier 1 and total risk-based... sector of the economy, productivity, competition, jobs, the environment, public health or safety, or...

  18. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  19. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  20. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  1. German data for risk based fire safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.; Berg, H.P.

    1998-01-01

    Different types of data are necessary to perform risk based fire safety assessments and, in particular, to quantify the fire event tree considering the plant specific conditions. Data on fire barriers, fire detection and extinguishing, including also data on secondary effects of a fire, have to be used for quantifying the potential hazard and damage states. The existing German database on fires in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is very small. Therefore, in general generic data, mainly from US databases, are used for risk based safety assessments. Due to several differences in the plant design and conditions generic data can only be used as conservative assumptions. World-wide existing generic data on personnel failures in case of fire fighting have only to be adapted to the plant specific conditions inside the NPP to be investigated. In contrary, unavailabilities of fire barrier elements may differ strongly depending on different standards, testing requirements, etc. In addition, the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment may vary depending on type and manufacturer. The necessity for more detailed and for additional plant specific data was the main reason for generating updated German data on the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment/features in NPPs to support risk based fire safety analyses being recommended to be carried out as an additional tool to deterministic fire hazard analyses in the frame of safety reviews. The results of these investigations revealed a broader and more realistic database for technical reliability of active fire protection means, but improvements as well as collection of further data are still necessary. (author)

  2. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  3. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  4. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  5. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  6. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  7. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-01-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

  8. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  9. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  10. Risk-based plant performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Tasked by the 1979 President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, the U.S. nuclear power industry has put into place a performance indicator program as one means for showing a demonstrable record of achievement. Largely through the efforts of the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), plant performance data has, since 1983, been collected and analyzed to aid utility management in measuring their plants' performance progress. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has also developed a set of performance indicators. This program, conducted by NRC's Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), is structured to present information on plant operational performance in a manner that could enhance the staff's ability to recognize changes in the safety performance. Both organizations recognized that performance indicators have limitations and could be subject to misinterpretation and misuse with the potential for an adverse impact on safety. This paper reports on performance indicators presently in use, e.g., unplanned automatic scrams, unplanned safety system actuation, safety system failures, etc., which are logically related to safety. But, a reliability/risk-based method for evaluating either individual indicators or an aggregated set of indicators is not yet available

  11. Análise quantitativa do processo de erosão/deposição nas falésias da APA Tambaba e sua ocupação nos limites da APP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís Regina Benevides Trigueiro Aranha

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available O litoral brasileiro é banhado pelo Oceano Atlântico e composto por diversas paisagens ao longo da costa. Entre elas encontram-se as falésias, que, por sua beleza, atraem a exploração turística o que, muitas vezes, compromete seu equilíbrio. Com a finalidade de proteger o meio ambiente das ações antrópicas, o poder público vem criando áreas para preservar e/ou conservar o meio ambiente, entre elas existem as APA e as APP. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi analisar a variabilidade espaço-temporal da linha de ruptura do relevo, na borda das falésias da APA Tambaba, entre os anos de 1985 e 2012; e identificar a existência de edificações dentro da APP no ano de 2012. Para tanto, foram utilizadas imagens do satélite Quickbird de 2012, do satélite IKONOS II de 2005 e fotos aéreas de 1985 para delimitação das linhas das falésias; o DSAS, que é uma extensão gratuita do ArcGIS, para obtenção de taxas de variação da linha de ruptura do relevo; e o software ArcGIS para delimitação e análise das APP. Como resultados, foram identificadas variações no movimento das linhas estudadas, tanto para erosão como para deposição nas falésias da APA Tambaba. No maior trecho da APA obteve-se uma média de -0,17m/ano para erosão e de 0,49m/ano para deposição, já no menor trecho a média de erosão foi -0,38m/ano e de deposição 0,14m/ano. Foi comprovada a existência de edificações irregulares correspondente a 22.818,91 m², o que equivale a aproximadamente 3% da área total da APP.

  12. Pęknięcie nerki jako rzadkie powikłanie zabiegu ESWL (kruszenie kamieni falą generowaną pozaustrojowo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Ząbkowski

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Kruszenie kamieni falą generowaną pozaustrojowo (extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, ESWL należy do podstawowych metod leczenia kamicy nerkowej – zyskała ona szerokie zastosowanie jako metoda małoinwazyjna i skuteczna. Wraz ze wzrostem doświadczenia urologów wykonujących zabiegi litotrypsji oraz udoskonalaniem litotryptorów wzrasta skuteczność wykonywanych zabiegów. Autorzy przedstawiają niezmiernie rzadkie powikłanie po zabiegu ESWL pod postacią pęknięcia nerki i masywnego krwawienia do przestrzeni zaotrzewnowej. Siedemdziesięcioośmioletni pacjent z małopłytkowością, po zabiegu by-passów (coronary artery bypass graft, CABG, po implantacji układu stymulującego serca, z nadciśnieniem tętniczym i cukrzycą typu II, leczony doustnymi antykoagulantami został przyjęty do Kliniki Urologicznej 6 godzin po zabiegu ESWL w trybie pilnym z powodu pogarszającego się stanu ogólnego, narastających dolegliwości bólowych w lewej okolicy lędźwiowej i masywnego krwiomoczu. Po przeprowadzeniu badania podmiotowego, przedmiotowego i na podstawie wykonanych badań dodatkowych (tomografia komputerowa jamy brzusznej rozpoznano pęknięcie nerki z masywnym krwiakiem przestrzeni zaotrzewnowej. Chorego zakwalifikowano w trybie pilnym do leczenia operacyjnego. Śródoperacyjnie stwierdzono ogromny krwiak wypełniający przestrzeń zaotrzewnową wokół nerki lewej i schodzący do lewego dołu biodrowego oraz masywne krwawienie z całej powierzchni uszkodzonej nerki bez możliwości opanowania krwawienia. Wobec powyższego obrazu podjęto decyzję o wycięciu nerki lewej. Z uwagi na stwierdzone płaszczyznowe krwawienie w otaczających tkankach i brak pewności co do ostatecznej hemostazy zdecydowano wykonać packing – założono 6 serwet do przestrzeni zaotrzewnowej. We wczesnym okresie pooperacyjnym nie stwierdzono powikłań. Pacjent krążeniowo, oddechowo i nerkowo wydolny. W 3. dobie od zabiegu w trybie planowym usuni

  13. 75 FR 3647 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    ... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital Requirements AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION... further directed FCA to estimate the credit risk on the portfolio covered by this new authority at a rate... component to directly recognize the credit risk on such loans.\\4\\ At the time of the Farm Bill's enactment...

  14. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  15. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  16. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  17. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-30

    NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER P0D9 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. Air...U.S. Government is joint author of the work and has the right to use, modify, reproduce, release, perform, display, or disclose the work . PA...weaknesses of this methodology are that its criteria are inflexible to site-specific operations and require obtaining waivers or exemptions for

  18. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  19. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  20. PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

  1. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  2. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations

  3. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Vesely, W.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations.

  4. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  5. Liver disease associated with intestinal failure in the small bowel syndrome Doença hepática associada à falência intestinal na síndrome do intestino curto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Kemp

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of the Total Parenteral Nutrition (TPN has given rise to a new hope in the treatment of intestinal failure (LF associated with the Short Bowel Syndrome (SBS. However, together with the TPN and the increase of survival of these patients, new problems and questions have emerged, as well as new therapeutical procedures. Taking into consideration this emerging reality, this paper has the purpose to undertake a review of current concepts and available treatments for patients with IF associated-liver disease. Although TPN provides an increase of survival of patients with intestinal failure, it is a potential source of complication such as: septicemia, hyperglycemia, venous thrombosis and liver disease. There are several hypothesis conceived to explain the liver disease associated to intestinal failure, however the only definite treatment as a potential to reverse the non-cirrhotic liver disease is the small intestine transplantation. Despite indications for intestine transplantation are not entirely defined in literature, the trend is its early indication in high-risk patients, preserving the liver integrity and preventing the eventual need of both liver and intestine transplantations altogether.A introdução da Nutrição Parenteral Total (NPT despertou uma nova esperança para o tratamento da falência intestina (FI associada a Síndrome do Intestino Curto (SIC. No entanto, junto com a NPT e o aumento da sobrevida destes pacientes, novos problemas e perguntas emergiram, assim como novas terapêuticas. Tendo em vista esta realidade emergente, o intuito deste artigo é realizar uma revisão dos conceitos atuais e dos tratamentos disponíveis para pacientes com doença hepática associada a FI. A NPT apesar de proporcionar aumento da sobrevida nos pacientes com falência intestinal é fonte potencial de complicações, como: septicemia, hiperglicemia, trombose venosa e doença hepática. Diversas são as hipóteses aventadas para

  6. Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1987-01-01

    Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

  7. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  8. Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Henan

    2017-12-01

    Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

  9. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  10. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  11. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  12. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  13. The risk-based approach to ATMP development - generally accepted by regulators but infrequently used by companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooijman, M; van Meer, P J K; Gispen-de Wied, C C; Moors, E H M; Hekkert, M P; Schellekens, H

    2013-11-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs) are the cutting edge of drug innovation. ATMPs have different challenges than other drug classes. To accommodate these challenges and facilitate science-driven development, flexibility in the requirements to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of this rapidly evolving drug class is necessary. To create flexibility, the European Union introduced the risk-based approach. This approach provides the possibility of omitting guideline-based studies based on risk analyses. To gain insight into the effect of the risk-based approach on the non-clinical development of ATMPs, two questions are addressed in this paper. Firstly, "Do companies use a risk-based approach for the non-clinical development of ATMPs?" and, secondly, "Does the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) accept non-clinical development programs based on the risk-based approach?" Scientific advice letters formulated by the CHMP were analyzed. The risk-based approach was used to justify deviations from the guidelines in the majority (75%) of the cases. The CHMP accepted 40% of the proposals to omit studies and stated that additional data was necessary to make an informed decision for 35% of the proposals. This indicates that the risk-based approach facilitates the science-driven development of ATMPs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Application of the risk based inspection in chemical and nuclear installations: a critical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Anna Leticia Barbosa de

    2004-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) has arisen as an opportunity for the industry to give a specific treatment to items as equipment integrity, failures consequences and the level of risk of each piece of equipment in the inspection programs definitions. Risk-based inspection programs are replacing the traditional ones based on prescriptive requirements, for both the oil and nuclear industries. The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate how the nuclear industry has gotten over several difficulties in implementing risk-based programs considering that its safety design and regulations have traditionally been based on deterministic and prescriptive criteria and requirements. During the development of the work, the study has shown how the absence of a rigid regulation favored the dissemination of RBI diffusion in the oil industry, mainly in the USA, where such industries do not face those difficulties found by the European plants, as long as it is well known that in Europe there are complex interrelations among documents from different countries with diversity of regulation procedures. (author)

  15. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  16. 6 CFR 27.230 - Risk-based performance standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based performance standards. 27.230 Section 27.230 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY... the facility and that discourages abuse through established disciplinary measures; (4) Deter, Detect...

  17. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  18. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  19. Develop risk-based procurement management tools for SMEs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staal, Anne; Hagelaar, Geoffrey; Walhof, Gert; Holman, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides guidance for developing risk-based management tools to improve the procurement (purchasing) performance of SMEs. Extant academic literature only offers little support on developing such tools and does not consider the wide variety of SMEs. The paper defines a procurement tool for

  20. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...

  1. Benefits of Risk Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Straub, D.M.; Goyet, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2006-01-01

    The economical benefits of applying risk-based inspection planning (RBI) for offshore structures subject to fatigue are evaluated based on experiences from past industrial projects. To this end, the factors influencing the cost of inspection, repair and failure of structures are discussed......, the financial benefit of RBI is assessed....

  2. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  3. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

  4. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    The first phase of the assessment concentrates on (1) identification of selected risk-based approaches for improving current technical specifications, (2) appraisal of characteristics of each approach, including advantages and disadvantages, and (3) recommendation of one or more approaches that might result in improving current technical specification requirements. The second phase of the work concentrates on assessment of the feasibility of implementation of a pilot program to study detailed characteristics of the preferred approach. The real time risk-based approach was identified as the preferred approach to technical specifications for controlling plant operational risk. There do not appear to be any technical or institutional obstacles to prevent initiation of a pilot program to assess the characteristics and effectiveness of such an approach. 2 tabs

  5. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  6. A risk-based approach to scheduling audits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rönninger, Stephan; Holmes, Malcolm

    2009-01-01

    The manufacture and supply of pharmaceutical products can be a very complex operation. Companies may purchase a wide variety of materials, from active pharmaceutical ingredients to packaging materials, from "in company" suppliers or from third parties. They may also purchase or contract a number of services such as analysis, data management, audit, among others. It is very important that these materials and services are of the requisite quality in order that patient safety and company reputation are adequately protected. Such quality requirements are ongoing throughout the product life cycle. In recent years, assurance of quality has been derived via audit of the supplier or service provider and by using periodic audits, for example, annually or at least once every 5 years. In the past, companies may have used an audit only for what they considered to be "key" materials or services and used testing on receipt, for example, as their quality assurance measure for "less important" supplies. Such approaches changed as a result of pressure from both internal sources and regulators to the time-driven audit for all suppliers and service providers. Companies recognised that eventually they would be responsible for the quality of the supplied product or service and audit, although providing only a "snapshot in time" seemed a convenient way of demonstrating that they were meeting their obligations. Problems, however, still occur with the supplied product or service and will usually be more frequent from certain suppliers. Additionally, some third-party suppliers will no longer accept routine audits from individual companies, as the overall audit load can exceed one external audit per working day. Consequently a different model is needed for assessing supplier quality. This paper presents a risk-based approach to creating an audit plan and for scheduling the frequency and depth of such audits. The approach is based on the principles and process of the Quality Risk Management

  7. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartley, R.S.; Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-01-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development's (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing

  8. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, R.S. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-12-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development`s (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing.

  9. Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Development of a risk-based inservice inspection program for a liquid metal reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.W.; Buschman, H.W.

    1996-01-01

    The emerging application of risk-based assessment technology to the operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants holds considerable promise for improving efficiency and reducing operating costs. EBR-II is liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor which operated for thirty years before shutting down in September 1994 due to program termination. Prior to the shutdown of EBR-II, an in-service inspection (ISI) program was developed that exploited certain advantages of the liquid-metal reactor design, e.g., demonstrated passive response to plant upset events, low pressure primary coolant and compatibility of the coolant and reactor materials. Many of the systems cannot be inspected due to inaccessibility of the components. However, application of a risk-based approach provided the basis for reducing or eliminating inspections in some areas that would otherwise be required. Development and implementation of the risk-based ISI program was interrupted by the DOE-mandated shutdown of EBR-II, so the potential benefits of this approach in terms of reduced O and M costs have yet to be realized. Through the development of this program, however it is clear that there is potential for substantial cost-savings while improving the risk-profile of the facility through this approach

  11. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  12. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  13. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Nielsen, Jannie Jessen

    2011-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines, costs to Operation and Maintenance (OM) are substantial, and can be expected to increase when wind farms are placed at deeper water depths and in more harsh environments. Traditional strategies for OM include corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...... statistics and costs of the different operations. The different OM strategies are described and compared in an illustrative example with focus on which types of information that are needed. Special focus is on comparison between risk-based maintenance strategies and the conventional maintenance planning...... and are often the driving mechanisms for failures / faults that need maintenance. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions and decrease the costs of OM if integrated in a risk-based framework theoretically based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. The mathematical...

  14. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  15. 78 FR 64425 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    ..., 507, and 579 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0922] Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and... requirements for current good manufacturing practice and hazard analysis and risk-based preventive controls for..., packing, or holding of animal food in two ways. First, it would create new current good manufacturing...

  16. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  17. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  18. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  19. Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard E. Sleefe

    2010-01-01

    There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

  20. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  1. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  2. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

  3. Risk based inspection experience from the European chemical- and petrochemical industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristensen, Hans; Jeppesen, Leif; Larsen, Bjarne; Kim, Na Yon

    2001-01-01

    As an inspection vendor with 60 years of experience and with more than 25 years of experience as manufacturer of the Automated Ultrasonic NDT systems, the P-scan systems, FORCE Institute is continuously analysing the market for NDT. This is done to assure that both the equipment product line and the service mix provided by FORCE Institute are meeting the requirements from the industry today and in the future. The concept of Risk Based Inspection Programmes were adopted early by the offshore industry and has in the recent years been adopted by many other industries as a reliable and cost efficient way of maintaining a production facility. A Risk/Reliability Based Inspection Programme is a 'living organism' that constantly needs information if it shall be of any value and NDT information is only one type of information that is required. The NDT information required is normally related to corrosion/base material information and weld integrity information. NDT as an integrated part of a plants maintenance system is, in Europe, currently influenced by the following tendencies which all are related to 'Risk Based Inspection': · Increased use of Base-Line Inspections · Reduction in the use of repeated inspections(qualitative- instead of quantitative Inspections). · Inspection results are fed directly into the plant maintenance system. · Fitness-for-Purpose acceptance criteria instead of conventional acceptance criteria. As repeatability and accuracy is a key issue for the data, automated ultrasonic inspection is increasingly used as an alternative to manual ultrasonic inspection, but due to the physical size of most automated ultrasonic inspection systems the gain in productivity has not been as significant as the gain in repeatability and accuracy. In this paper some of FORCE Institute's practical experiences with examinations carried out in connection with Risk Based Inspection is used to illustrate the above described tendencies. Not only examples using automated

  4. Risk-based priorities for inspection of nuclear pressure boundary components at selected LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.; Doctor, S.R.; Smith, B.W.

    1990-03-01

    Data from existing probabilistic risk assessments for eight representative nuclear power plants were used to identify and prioritize the most relevant systems to plant safety. The objective was to assess current in-service inspection requirements for pressure boundary systems and components, and to develop recommendations for improvements. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using risk-based methods to develop plant-specific inspection plans. Results for the eight representative plants also indicate generic trends that suggest improvements in current inspection plans now based on priorities set in accordance with code definitions of Class 1, 2, and 3 systems. 2 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  5. Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

    2014-01-01

    There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO).

  6. Risk-based priorities for inspection of nuclear pressure boundary components at selected LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.; Doctor, S.R.; Smith, B.W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from existing probabilistic risk assessments for eight representative nuclear power plants were used to identify and prioritize the most relevant systems to plant safety. The objective of this paper is to assess current in-service inspection requirements for pressure boundary systems and components, and to develop recommendations for improvements. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using risk-based methods to develop plant-specific inspection plans. Results for the eight representative plants also indicate generic trends that suggest improvements in current inspection plans now based on priorities set in accordance with code definitions of Class 1, 2, and 3 systems

  7. Využití NIR spektroskopie při kontrole falšování kozích sýrů

    OpenAIRE

    Přikrylová, Iveta

    2014-01-01

    Diploma thesis deals with use of near-infrared spectroscopy to detect falsification of goat's cheese. The basic knowledge of goat's and cow's milk and requirements for milk during cheese production are summarized in the theoretical part. There is also described the cheese production and the following part is devoted to food falsification with describing falsification of milk products and the facilities of adulteration detection by optical methods. The remaining part deals with NIR spectroscop...

  8. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

    2017-11-01

    Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  11. The future of monitoring in clinical research - a holistic approach: linking risk-based monitoring with quality management principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansmann, Eva B; Hecht, Arthur; Henn, Doris K; Leptien, Sabine; Stelzer, Hans Günther

    2013-01-01

    Since several years risk-based monitoring is the new "magic bullet" for improvement in clinical research. Lots of authors in clinical research ranging from industry and academia to authorities are keen on demonstrating better monitoring-efficiency by reducing monitoring visits, monitoring time on site, monitoring costs and so on, always arguing with the use of risk-based monitoring principles. Mostly forgotten is the fact, that the use of risk-based monitoring is only adequate if all mandatory prerequisites at site and for the monitor and the sponsor are fulfilled.Based on the relevant chapter in ICH GCP (International Conference on Harmonisation of technical requirements for registration of pharmaceuticals for human use - Good Clinical Practice) this publication takes a holistic approach by identifying and describing the requirements for future monitoring and the use of risk-based monitoring. As the authors are operational managers as well as QA (Quality Assurance) experts, both aspects are represented to come up with efficient and qualitative ways of future monitoring according to ICH GCP.

  12. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  13. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  14. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Toward a Safety Risk-Based Classification of Unmanned Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2016-01-01

    There is a trend of growing interest and demand for greater access of unmanned aircraft (UA) to the National Airspace System (NAS) as the ongoing development of UA technology has created the potential for significant economic benefits. However, the lack of a comprehensive and efficient UA regulatory framework has constrained the number and kinds of UA operations that can be performed. This report presents initial results of a study aimed at defining a safety-risk-based UA classification as a plausible basis for a regulatory framework for UA operating in the NAS. Much of the study up to this point has been at a conceptual high level. The report includes a survey of contextual topics, analysis of safety risk considerations, and initial recommendations for a risk-based approach to safe UA operations in the NAS. The next phase of the study will develop and leverage deeper clarity and insight into practical engineering and regulatory considerations for ensuring that UA operations have an acceptable level of safety.

  16. A risk-based approach to prioritize underground storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs) for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were pumped out at the time the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include, the radionuclides, 9O Sr, 137 Cs and 233 U and the chemicals, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank; (2) location of the tanks; and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents

  17. A interdisciplinaridade na legislação educacional, no discurso acadêmico e na prática escolar do ensino médio: panaceia ou falácia educacional?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Regina Mozena

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7941.2016v33n1p92 O discurso da interdisciplinaridade no Brasil tem sido apropriado por grande parte da legislação educacional desde a década de 70 com o sentido de responsabilizá-la por elevar a educação a patamares superiores de qualidade. Na mesma direção, crescem vertiginosamente os trabalhos de pesquisa na área de educação, que apontam a importância da interdisciplinaridade no contexto atual. Por outro lado, tanto esses documentos legais como os meios acadêmicos outorgam ao professor o papel de desenvolver e implementar a interdisciplinaridade na sala de aula. O que se observa em trabalhos de pesquisa que investigam a prática dos professores é que estes se contentam em empreender projetos que julgam interdisciplinares, mas que em sua grande maioria não passam de multidisciplinares, apoiados no senso comum. Este quadro coloca o discurso da interdisciplinaridade com feições de uma falácia educacional. Este trabalho discute a insistência histórica da legislação e do meio acadêmico em tornar este discurso um grande objeto do desejo educacional. Já com relação aos professores, procura localizar as razões pelas quais eles não se aprofundam nessa prática além do senso comum, análise apoiada na epistemologia da prática docente como pensada por Tardif e Lessard, que justifica as ações dos professores com base nas características intrínsecas das situações do trabalho interativo.

  18. Failure to wean caused by cryptogenic fibrosing pleuritis and bilateral lung trapping: case report Falência do desmame em paciente com fibrose pleural idiopática e trapping pulmonar bilateral: relato de caso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsemiek Verweel

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cryptogenic fibrosing pleuritis is an extremely rare disease, which can affect both lungs from a very young age. The most common finding is severe lung restriction resulting in both hypoxemic and ventilatory failure. CASE REPORT: Male patient, 26 year old with acute deterioration of chronic respiratory failure. Following admission prolonged mechanical ventilation was necessary. An atypical clinical presentation made the diagnosis difficult, but eventually cryptogenic fibrosing pleuritis and lung fibrosis were established. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic outcome of patients with the final diagnosis of cryptogenic fibrosing pleuritis is extremely poor, especially in an advanced phase of this disease. We recommend early treatment with corticosteroids or surgical pleural decortication.JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Fibrose pleural idiopática é uma doença rara e pode afetar ambos pulmões já desde uma idade precoce. O achado mais comum na fibrose pleural idiopática é uma restrição pulmonar grave que pode levar a um quadro de falência respiratória e hipoxemia. RELATO DO CASO: Paciente do sexo masculino, 26 anos, internado com reagudização de insuficiência respiratória crônica e submetido à ventilação mecânica prolongada. Após intensa investigação e uma apresentação clínica atípica, foi estabelecido o diagnóstico de fibrose pleural idiopática associado à fibrose pulmonar. CONCLUSÕES: O prognóstico de pacientes com fibrose pleural idiopática é extremamente ruim, particularmente em fase avançada da doença. Recomenda-se o tratamento precoce com corticosteróides ou decorticação pleural cirúrgica.

  19. The ASME research task force on risk-based in-service inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, K.R.; Chapman, O.J.V.

    1997-01-01

    The use of risk-based methods in the development of in-service inspection (ISI) and in-service testing (IST) programs for nuclear power plant and other industrial applications has been studied for the last several years through the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Centre for Research and Technology Development (ASME 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996). The results of this work are being used as a foundation to develop specific requirements for implementation of risk-based technology in ASME Codes and Standards, regulatory requirements and industry programs both in the U.S. and other countries. This paper provides a brief overview of the ASME Research Methodology and how it has been adapted for application to the inspection of piping within the USA. It also relates how the reliability of nondestructive examination (NDE) methods for pressure boundary components can impact the risk and discusses the relationship between this and NDE qualification/demonstration now being implemented in Europe and the USA. (orig.)

  20. How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  1. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  2. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    For offshore wind turbines, maintenance costs are substantial due to a large number of component failures. In addition to the repair costs, equipment costs and lost production costs are large due to limited accessibility to the turbines. In order to reduce the costs, preventive methods can be used......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... maintenance costs, and many studies have also been published for preventive maintenance. However, an important part is the modeling of the relationship between maintenance and reliability, which is typically not modeled in a consistent way. Therefore, the methods cannot be used directly for optimal...

  3. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  4. Optimal Risk-Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangel-Ramirez, Jose G.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    , inspection and maintenance activities are developed. This paper considers aspects of inspection and maintenance planning of fatigue prone details in jacket and tripod types of wind turbine support structures. Based oil risk-based inspection planning methods used for oil & gas installations, a framework......Wind turbines for electricity production have increased significantly the last years both in production capability and size. This development is expected to continue also in the coining years. The Support structure for offshore wind turbines is typically a steel structure consisting of a tower...... for optimal inspection and maintenance planning of offshore wind turbines is presented. Special aspects for offshore wind turbines are considered: usually the wind loading are dominating the wave loading, wake effects in wind farms are important and the reliability level is typically significantly lower than...

  5. Risk-based prioritization at Hanford Nuclear Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Mosely, M.T.

    1995-11-01

    This paper describes the method used to incorporate risk-based decision making into the Hanford resource allocation process. This method, the Revised Priority Planning Grid, is used as a tool to calculate benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios for comparison of environmental cleanup activities. The tool is based on Hanford Site objectives. Benefits are determined by estimating the impact on those objectives resulting from funding specific environmental management activities. Impacts are also a function of the weights associated with the objectives. These weights in the Revised Priority Planning Grid reflect US Development of Energy management values, which were obtained through a formal value-elicitation process. With modification to the objectives and weights, the Revised Priority Planning Grid could be used in different situations. By factoring in environmental, safety, and health risk and assigning higher scores to those activities that provide the most benefit, the Revised Priority Planning Grid is a reproducible, scientific way of scoring competing activities or interests

  6. Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

  7. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  8. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  9. Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

    2018-04-01

    Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  10. 76 FR 35138 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-16

    ... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based Capital Stress Test, Version 5.0 AGENCY: Farm Credit... credit rating agency) in regulations addressing the Risk-Based Capital Stress Test (RBCST or stress test...) (repealing and replacing Pub. L. 110-234). B. Risk-Based Capital and Credit Ratings Under our rules, Farmer...

  11. Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

  12. Multimedia risk-based soil cleanup at a gasoline-contaminated site using vapor extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, W.B.; Johnson, K.M.; Liu, S.; Loh, J.Y.; Lew, C.S.

    1996-01-01

    At a utility service center, gasoline from an underground storage tank had leaked into subsurface vadose zone soils for several years. To remediate the site, a soil vapor extraction (SVE) system was installed and operated. At the completion of the SVE operation, gasoline-containing residues in several confirmation soil borings exceeded agency-mandated cleanup levels. Rather than continue with SVE, a risk-based approach was developed to evaluate what levels of gasoline-containing residues could be left in the soil and still protect human health. The risk-based approach consisted of simulating the fate of chemical residues through the vadose zone and then into both the ground water and atmosphere. Receptor point concentrations were predicted, and health risks were assessed. The risk assessment concluded that ingestion of contaminated ground water and inhalation of air while showering were the largest potential contributors to risk, and that risks associated with inhalation of vapor-containing ambient air are small. However, all predicted risks are below the acceptable risk levels of 10 -6 individual cancer risk probability and 1.0 hazard index. Therefore, the lead agency accepted the recommendation that the site requires no further remediation. The service center continues normal operations today

  13. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

  14. Application of risk-based methods for inspection of nuclear power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, K.R.

    1992-01-01

    In-service inspections (ISIs) can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. All aspects of inspections, i.e., objectives, method, timing, and the acceptance criteria for detected flaws can affect the probability of component failure. Where ISI programs exist, they are primarily based on prior experience and engineering judgment. At best, some include an implicit consideration of risk (probability of failure multiplied by consequence). Since late 1988, a multidisciplined American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection Guidelines has been addressing the general question of how to formally incorporate risk considerations into plans and requirements for the ISI of components and structural systems. The task force and steering committee that guided the project have concluded that appropriate analytical methods exist for evaluating and quantifying risks associated with pressure boundary and structural failures. With the support of about a dozen industry and government organizations, the research group has recommended a general methodology for establishing a risk-based inspection program that could be applied to any nuclear system or structural system

  15. Risk-based security cost-benefit analysis: method and example applications - 59381

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyss, Gregory; Hinton, John; Clem, John; Silva, Consuelo; Duran, Felicia A.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Decision makers wish to use risk-based cost-benefit analysis to prioritize security investments. However, understanding security risk requires estimating the likelihood of attack, which is extremely uncertain and depends on unquantifiable psychological factors like dissuasion and deterrence. In addition, the most common performance metric for physical security systems, probability of effectiveness at the design basis threat [P(E)], performs poorly in cost-benefit analysis. It is extremely sensitive to small changes in adversary characteristics when the threat is near a systems breaking point, but very insensitive to those changes under other conditions. This makes it difficult to prioritize investment options on the basis of P(E), especially across multiple targets or facilities. To overcome these obstacles, a Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development project has developed a risk-based security cost-benefit analysis method. This approach characterizes targets by how difficult it would be for adversaries to exploit each targets vulnerabilities to induce consequences. Adversaries generally have success criteria (e.g., adequate or desired consequences and thresholds for likelihood of success), and choose among alternative strategies that meet these criteria while considering their degree of difficulty in achieving their successful outcome. Investments reduce security risk as they reduce the severity of consequences available and/or increase the difficulty for an adversary to successfully accomplish their most advantageous attack

  16. Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

  17. A performance-oriented and risk-based regulation for containment testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.

    1994-01-01

    In August 1992, the NRC initiated a major initiative to develop requirements for containment testing that are less prescriptive, and more performance-oriented and risk-based. This action was a result of public comments and several studies that concluded that the economic burden of certain, present containment testing requirements are not commensurate with their safety benefits. The rulemaking will include consideration of relaxing the allowable containment leakage rate, increasing the interval for the integrated containment test, and establishing intervals for the local containment leak rate tests based on their performance. A study has been conducted to provide technical information for establishing the performance criteria for containment tests, the allowable leakage rate, commensurate with its significance to total public risk. The study used results of a recent comprehensive study conducted by the NRC, NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,' to examine the sensitivity of containment leakage to public risk. Risk was found to be insensitive to containment leakage rate up to levels of about 100 percent-volume per day for certain types of containments. PRA methods have also been developed to establish risk-based intervals for containment tests based on their past experience. Preliminary evaluations show that increasing the interval for the integrated containment leakage test from three times to once every ten years would have an insignificant impact on public risk. Preliminary analyses of operational experience data for local leak rate tests show that performance-based testing, valves and penetrations that perform well are tested less frequently, is feasible with marginal impact on safety. The above technical studies are being used to develop efficient (cost-effective) requirements for containment tests. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

  18. FAL Clowes, 1921-2016: a Memoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Peter W

    2018-03-04

    With the death of Frederick Albert Lionel Clowes on 21 September 2016, plant sciences lost a member of that lineage of experimental morphologists which reaches back to Johann Wolfgang von Goethe. In 1949, he discovered a group of cells at the tip of the beech root apex which were metabolically inert. In 1954, he confirmed generality of this root apex feature and coined the term 'quiescent center'. He continued to study these unique cells throughout next decades up to his last papers published in 1980s. Concept of the quiescent centre of plant roots is one of the milestones in plant cell biology and plant physiology.

  19. Risk based test interval and maintenance optimisation - Application and uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sparre, E.

    1999-10-01

    The project is part of an IAEA co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Development of Methodologies for Optimisation of Surveillance Testing and Maintenance of Safety Related Equipment at NPPs'. The purpose of the project is to investigate the sensitivity of the results obtained when performing risk based optimisation of the technical specifications. Previous projects have shown that complete LPSA models can be created and that these models allow optimisation of technical specifications. However, these optimisations did not include any in depth check of the result sensitivity with regards to methods, model completeness etc. Four different test intervals have been investigated in this study. Aside from an original, nominal, optimisation a set of sensitivity analyses has been performed and the results from these analyses have been compared to the original optimisation. The analyses indicate that the result of an optimisation is rather stable. However, it is not possible to draw any certain conclusions without performing a number of sensitivity analyses. Significant differences in the optimisation result were discovered when analysing an alternative configuration. Also deterministic uncertainties seem to affect the result of an optimisation largely. The sensitivity of failure data uncertainties is important to investigate in detail since the methodology is based on the assumption that the unavailability of a component is dependent on the length of the test interval

  20. Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowska Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

  1. Risk-based and maintenance systems for steam turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiyama, K.; Nagai, S.; Akikuni, Y.; Fujiwara, T.; Furuya, K.; Matsumoto, S.; Takagi, K.; Kawabata, T.

    2003-01-01

    The risk-based maintenance (RBM) system has been developed for steam turbine plants coupled with the quick inspection systems. The RBM system utilizes the field failure and inspection database accumulated over 30 years. The failure modes are determined for each component of steam turbines and the failure scenarios are described as event trees. The probability of failure is expressed in the form of unreliability functions of operation hours or start-up cycles through the cumulative hazard function method. The posterior unreliability is derived from the field data analysis according to the inspection information. Quick inspection can be conducted using air-cooled borescope and heat resistant ultrasonic sensors even if the turbine is not cooled down sufficiently. Another inspection information comes from degradation and damage measurement. The probabilistic life assessment using structural analysis and statistical material properties, the latter is estimated from hardness measurement, replica observation and embrittlement measurement. The risk function is calculated as the sum product of unreliability functions and expected monetary loss as the consequence of failure along event trees. The optimum maintenance plan is determined among simulated scenarios described through component breakdown trees, life cycle event trees and risk functions. Those methods are effective for total condition assessment and economical maintenance for operating plants. (orig.)

  2. Risk-based inspection and maintenance systems for steam turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiyama, Kazunari; Nagai, Satoshi; Akikuni, Yasunari; Fujiwara, Toshihiro; Furuya, Kenichiro; Matsumoto, Shigeru; Takagi, Kentaro; Kawabata, Taro

    2004-01-01

    The risk-based maintenance (RBM) system has been developed for steam turbine plants coupled with the quick inspection systems. The RBM system utilizes the field failure and inspection database accumulated over 30 years. The failure modes are determined for each component of steam turbines and the failure scenarios are described as event trees. The probability of failure is expressed in the form of unreliability functions of operation hours or start-up cycles through the cumulative hazard function method. The posterior unreliability is derived from the field data analysis according to the inspection information. Quick inspection can be conducted using air-cooled borescope and heat resistant ultrasonic sensors even if the turbine is not cooled down sufficiently. Another inspection information comes from degradation and damage measurement. The probabilistic life assessment using structural analysis and statistical material properties, the latter is estimated from hardness measurement, replica observation and embrittlement measurement. The risk function is calculated as the sum product of unreliability functions and expected monetary loss as the consequence of failure along event trees. The optimum maintenance plan is determined among simulated scenarios described through component breakdown trees, life cycle event trees and risk functions. Those methods are effective for total condition assessment and economical maintenance for operating plants

  3. Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis

    2014-02-01

    In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.

  4. Risk Based Inspection of Gas-Cooling Heat Exchanger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Priyanta

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available On October 2013, Pertamina Hulu Energi Offshore North West Java (PHE – ONWJ platform personnel found 93 leaking tubes locations in the finfan coolers/ gas-cooling heat exchanger. After analysis had been performed, the crack in the tube strongly indicate that stress corrosion cracking was occurred by chloride. Chloride stress corrosion cracking (CLSCC is the cracking occurred by the combined influence of tensile stress and a corrosive environment. CLSCC is the one of the most common reasons why austenitic stainless steel pipework or tube and vessels deteriorate in the chemical processing, petrochemical industries and maritime industries. In this thesis purpose to determine the appropriate inspection planning for two main items (tubes and header box in the gas-cooling heat exchanger using risk based inspection (RBI method. The result, inspection of the tubes must be performed on July 6, 2024 and for the header box inspection must be performed on July 6, 2025. In the end, RBI method can be applicated to gas-cooling heat exchanger. Because, risk on the tubes can be reduced from 4.537 m2/year to 0.453 m2/year. And inspection planning for header box can be reduced from 4.528 m2/year to 0.563 m2/year.

  5. Options for improving hazardous waste cleanups using risk-based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elcock, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores how risk- and technology-based criteria are currently used in the RCRA and CERCLA cleanup programs. It identifies ways in which risk could be further incorporated into RCRA and CERCLA cleanup requirements and the implications of risk-based approaches. The more universal use of risk assessment as embodied in the risk communication and risk improvement bills before Congress is not addressed. Incorporating risk into the laws and regulations governing hazardous waste cleanup, will allow the use of the best scientific information available to further the goal of environmental protection in the United States while containing costs. and may help set an example for other countries that may be developing cleanup programs, thereby contributing to enhanced global environmental management

  6. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  7. Risk-based management system development for the Advanced Test Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.L.; Eide, S.A.

    1990-01-01

    A Risk-Based Management System (RBMS) is being developed to facilitate the use of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment to support ATR operation. Most ATR RBMS questions can best be answered using the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. However, some applications may require employment of the other four codes used to develop and report the PRA. These four codes include the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), SETS, ETA-II, and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The ATR RBMS will evolve over three years, and will include the results of the Level 3 and external events analysis

  8. Chemical Exposure Assessment Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory: A risk based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    The University of California Contract And DOE Order 5480.10 require that Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) perform health hazard assessments/inventories of all employee workplaces. In response to this LANL has developed the Chemical Exposure Assessment Program. This program provides a systematic risk-based approach to anticipation, recognition, evaluation and control of chemical workplace exposures. Program implementation focuses resources on exposures with the highest risks for causing adverse health effects. Implementation guidance includes procedures for basic characterization, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative validation, and recommendations and reevaluation. Each component of the program is described. It is shown how a systematic method of assessment improves documentation, retrieval, and use of generated exposure information

  9. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  10. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  11. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to the most important areas. The proposed Research Contract activity is strongly connected with other safety related areas under development. Since, the Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Level 1 PSA Study (CPSE) was performed and now the study is revised taking into account the as-built information, it is recommended to implement into the model the necessary modeling features to support further PSA application, especially related to Test and Maintenance optimization. Methods need to be developed in order to apply the PSA model including risk information together with other needed information for Test and Maintenance optimization. Also, in parallel with the CPSE study updating, the software interface for the PSA model is under development (Risk Monitor Software class), methods and models needing to be developed for the purpose of using it for qualified monitoring of Test and Maintenance Strategy efficiency. Similar, the Data Collection System need to be appropriate for the purpose of an ongoing implementation of a risk - based Test and Maintenance Strategy. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig

  12. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

    2016-04-01

    It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some

  13. Development of an active risk-based surveillance strategy for avian influenza in Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, E; Alfonso, P; Ippoliti, C; Abeledo, M; Calistri, P; Blanco, P; Conte, A; Sánchez, B; Fonseca, O; Percedo, M; Pérez, A; Fernández, O; Giovannini, A

    2014-09-01

    The authors designed a risk-based approach to the selection of poultry flocks to be sampled in order to further improve the sensitivity of avian influenza (AI) active surveillance programme in Cuba. The study focused on the western region of Cuba, which harbours nearly 70% of national poultry holdings and comprise several wetlands where migratory waterfowl settle (migratory waterfowl settlements - MWS). The model took into account the potential risk of commercial poultry farms in western Cuba contracting from migratory waterfowl of the orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes through dispersion for pasturing of migratory birds around the MWS. We computed spatial risk index by geographical analysis with Python scripts in ESRI(®) ArcGIS 10 on data projected in the reference system NAD 1927-UTM17. Farms located closer to MWS had the highest values for the risk indicator pj and in total 31 farms were chosen for targeted surveillance during the risk period. The authors proposed to start active surveillance in the study area 3 weeks after the onset of Anseriformes migration, with additional sampling repeated twice in the same selected poultry farms at 15 days interval (Comin et al., 2012; EFSA, 2008) to cover the whole migration season. In this way, the antibody detectability would be favoured in case of either a posterior AI introduction or enhancement of a previous seroprevalence under the sensitivity level. The model identified the areas with higher risk for AIV introduction from MW, aiming at selecting poultry premises for the application of risk-based surveillance. Given the infrequency of HPAI introduction into domestic poultry populations and the relative paucity of occurrences of LPAI epidemics, the evaluation of the effectiveness of this approach would require its application for several migration seasons to allow the collection of sufficient reliable data. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. II: Graded testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents a graded approach to the testing of crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods based on concern levels in a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) and currently available testing methods. A graded approach offers the potential for more efficient use of testing resources by focusing less on lower concern GM foods, and more on higher concern foods. In this proposed approach to graded testing, products that are classified as Level I would have met baseline testing requirements that are comparable to what is widely applied to premarket assessment of GM foods at present. In most cases, Level I products would require no further testing, or very limited confirmatory analyses. For products classified as Level II or higher, additional testing would be required, depending on the type of the substance, prior dietary history, estimated exposure level, prior knowledge of toxicity of the substance, and the nature of the concern related to unintended changes in the modified food. Level III testing applies only to the assessment of toxic and antinutritional effects from intended changes and is tailored to the nature of the substance in question. Since appropriate test methods are not currently available for all effects of concern, future research to strengthen the testing of GM foods is discussed.

  15. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 195 - Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older Hazardous Liquid and Carbon Dioxide Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... pressure tested, based on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The first step is to determine the... test requirements depending on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The overall risk... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older...

  16. Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – some Canadian and Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phaneuf, M.; Woods, P.; McKee, M.

    2014-01-01

    The uranium producing countries of Canada and Australia have independently developed regulatory frameworks emphasising the importance of human health and ecological risk assessments as core tools for ensuring protection of the environment and public. The value of such an approach is presented as well as practical lessons learned through recent applications of this regulatory model. In May 2000, the Canadian Atomic Energy Control Act was replaced by the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA). This law created the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, whose mission is to protect the health, safety and security of persons and the environment; and to implement Canada’s international commitments on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. From an environmental perspective, the new law added a requirement for the protection of the environment and non-human biota, and a responsibility over hazardous substances in addition to nuclear ones. The NSCA requires the prevention of unreasonable risk to, and adequate provision for the protection of, the environment and the health and safety of the public. It was decided that environmental and public protection would recognize the principles of pollution prevention and ALARA, and that it would be risk based. For Class 1 facilities and uranium mines and mills, Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessments are the core of both the Environmental Assessment process and the licensing process under the Nuclear Safety and Control Act. The Ecological Risk Assessment informs the Effluent and Environmental Monitoring Programs with the resultant monitoring data used to reinforce the risk assessments on a cyclical basis throughout the lifespan of the facility. A number of standards and regulatory documents have been completed supporting this environmental protection framework. In this presentation, a case study is used to illustrate the use of ERA for decision making. In the last decade or so in Australia uranium mining proposals normally require

  17. Risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat: A comparison of two approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Jens Kirk; Tuominen, Pirkko

    2015-01-01

    Risk-based microbiological criteria can offer a tool to control Campylobacter in the broiler meat production chain. Recently two approaches have been applied to derive such criteria and to analyse their potential impact in terms of human health risk reduction: the risk-based version...

  18. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

    2015-01-01

    action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

  19. A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

    2017-01-01

    As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

  20. Risk-based regulation - an NRC perspective and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, T.L.; Murphy, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision making has traditionally been part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) policy and practice. In the early days of regulation, this consideration was more qualitative in nature and was reflected in prescriptive/deterministic regulatory requirements. However, with the development of quantitative risk assessment methods, more detailed and comprehensive (although not complete) risk information on nuclear power plants is available to the designer, operator, and regulator. The availability of such information provides an opportunity to assess the need for change in the current regulatory structure and to develop future regulatory requirements in a less prescriptive, more performance-oriented fashion

  1. A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

    2018-03-01

    For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

  2. 78 FR 43829 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-22

    ... have no practical impact on the rules that apply to the provision of official export credits.'' \\8\\ \\7... treatment of certain securitization positions under the SSFA with regard to determining the delinquency of... increase the capital requirements for a securitization exposure when delinquencies in the underlying assets...

  3. 78 FR 76521 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-18

    ... ``[t]his means that the change has no practical impact on the rules that apply to the provision of... delinquency of the underlying exposures as discussed below. Among the inputs to the SSFA is the ``W'' parameter, which increases the capital requirements for a securitization exposure when delinquencies in the...

  4. Risk-based analysis of business process executions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alizadeh, M.; Zannone, N.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations need to monitor their business processes to ensure that what actually happens in the system is compliant with the prescribed behavior. Deviations from the prescribed behavior may correspond to violations of security requirements and expose organizations to severe risks. Thus, it is

  5. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B. [and others

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach.

  6. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach

  7. Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  8. Risk-based transfer responses to climate change, simulated through autocorrelated stochastic methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, B.; Characklis, G. W.

    2009-12-01

    Maintaining municipal water supply reliability despite growing demands can be achieved through a variety of mechanisms, including supply strategies such as temporary transfers. However, much of the attention on transfers has been focused on market-based transfers in the western United States largely ignoring the potential for transfers in the eastern U.S. The different legal framework of the eastern and western U.S. leads to characteristic differences between their respective transfers. Western transfers tend to be agricultural-to-urban and involve raw, untreated water, with the transfer often involving a simple change in the location and/or timing of withdrawals. Eastern transfers tend to be contractually established urban-to-urban transfers of treated water, thereby requiring the infrastructure to transfer water between utilities. Utilities require the tools to be able to evaluate transfer decision rules and the resulting expected future transfer behavior. Given the long-term planning horizons of utilities, potential changes in hydrologic patterns due to climate change must be considered. In response, this research develops a method for generating a stochastic time series that reproduces the historic autocorrelation and can be adapted to accommodate future climate scenarios. While analogous in operation to an autoregressive model, this method reproduces the seasonal autocorrelation structure, as opposed to assuming the strict stationarity produced by an autoregressive model. Such urban-to-urban transfers are designed to be rare, transient events used primarily during times of severe drought, and incorporating Monte Carlo techniques allows for the development of probability distributions of likely outcomes. This research evaluates a system risk-based, urban-to-urban transfer agreement between three utilities in the Triangle region of North Carolina. Two utilities maintain their own surface water supplies in adjoining watersheds and look to obtain transfers via

  9. Structuring a risk-based bioassay program for uranium usage in university laboratories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Johnne Talia

    Bioassay programs are integral in a radiation safety program. They are used as a method of determining whether individuals working with radioactive material have been exposed and have received a resulting dose. For radionuclides that are not found in nature, determining an exposure is straightforward. However, for a naturally occurring radionuclide like uranium, it is not as straightforward to determine whether a dose is the result of an occupational exposure. The purpose of this project is to address this issue within the University of Nevada, Las Vegas's (UNLV) bioassay program. This project consisted of two components that studied the effectiveness of a bioassay program in determining the dose for an acute inhalation of uranium. The first component of the plan addresses the creation of excretion curves, utilizing MATLAB that would allow UNLV to be able to determine at what time an inhalation dose can be attributed to. The excretion curves were based on the ICRP 30 lung model, as well as the Annual Limit Intake (ALI) values located in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's 10CFR20 which is based on ICRP 30 (International Commission on Radiological Protection). The excretion curves would allow UNLV to be able to conduct in-house investigations of inhalation doses without solely depending on outside investigations and sources. The second component of the project focused on the creation of a risk based bioassay program to be utilized by UNLV that would take into account bioassay frequency that depended on the individual. Determining the risk based bioassay program required the use of baseline variance in order to minimize the investigation of false positives among those individuals who undergo bioassays for uranium work. The proposed program was compared against an evaluation limit of 10 mrem per quarter, an investigational limit of 125 mrem per quarter, and the federal/state requirement of 1.25 rem per quarter. It was determined that a bioassay program whose bioassay

  10. Selecting a Risk-Based SQC Procedure for a HbA1c Total QC Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, Sten A; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, James O

    2017-09-01

    Recent US practice guidelines and laboratory regulations for quality control (QC) emphasize the development of QC plans and the application of risk management principles. The US Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) now includes an option to comply with QC regulations by developing an individualized QC plan (IQCP) based on a risk assessment of the total testing process. The Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) has provided new practice guidelines for application of risk management to QC plans and statistical QC (SQC). We describe an alternative approach for developing a total QC plan (TQCP) that includes a risk-based SQC procedure. CLIA compliance is maintained by analyzing at least 2 levels of controls per day. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a graphical tool to simplify the selection of risk-based SQC procedures. Current HbA1c method performance, as demonstrated by published method validation studies, is estimated to be 4-Sigma quality at best. Optimal SQC strategies require more QC than the CLIA minimum requirement of 2 levels per day. More complex control algorithms, more control measurements, and a bracketed mode of operation are needed to assure the intended quality of results. A total QC plan with a risk-based SQC procedure provides a simpler alternative to an individualized QC plan. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a practical tool for selecting appropriate control rules, numbers of control measurements, and run size (or frequency of SQC). Applications demonstrate the need for continued improvement of analytical performance of HbA1c laboratory methods.

  11. Falência ovariana precoce associada a deleção no braço longo do cromossomo: relato de dois casos e revisão da literatura Premature ovarian failure with a deletion in the long arm of chromosome: report of two cases and review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariangela Badalotti

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Falência ovariana prematura pode ser idiopática ou estar associada a várias distúrbios auto-imunes ou genéticos, como as deleções do cromossomo X. Relatamos dois novos casos de deleções do braço longo do cromossomo X, em pacientes nuligrávidas apresentando amenorréia secundária e infertilidade. Nenhuma paciente referia história familiar de falência ovariana prematura e relatavam desenvolvimento puberal normal. A avaliação genética mostrou deleção distal no braço longo do cromossomo X, sendo os resultados 46,X,del(Xq22 e 46,X,del(Xq13q28, respectivamente. Após o diagnóstico as pacientes optaram por fertilização in vitro com óvulos doados.Premature ovarian failure may be idiopathic or associated with several autoimmune and genetic disorders as X chromosome deletions. We report two cases of preamture ovarian failure associated with a deletion in the long arm of X chromosome. Both patients were nulligravidas presenting secondary amenorrhea and complaints of infertility, without family history of premature ovarian failure and reporting normal puberal development. Their karyotypes showed deletions of the distal long arm of all X chromosomes and were 46,X, del(Xq22 and 46,X, del(Xq13q28, respectively. After the diagnosis the patients decided to be submitted to an in vitro fertilization with egg donation.

  12. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2015-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  13. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. I: Conceptual development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    The predominant paradigm for the premarket assessment of genetically modified (GM) foods reflects heightened public concern by focusing on foods modified by recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (rDNA) techniques, while foods modified by other methods of genetic modification are generally not assessed for safety. To determine whether a GM product requires less or more regulatory oversight and testing, we developed and evaluated a risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived GM foods. The results of this research are presented in three papers. This paper describes the conceptual development of the proposed RBCS that focuses on two categories of adverse health effects: (1) toxic and antinutritional effects, and (2) allergenic effects. The factors that may affect the level of potential health risks of GM foods are identified. For each factor identified, criteria for differentiating health risk potential are developed. The extent to which a GM food satisfies applicable criteria for each factor is rated separately. A concern level for each category of health effects is then determined by aggregating the ratings for the factors using predetermined aggregation rules. An overview of the proposed scheme is presented, as well as the application of the scheme to a hypothetical GM food.

  14. A risk-based monitoring framework for the long term management of used fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garisto, N.C.

    2006-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Management Organization has a mandate from the Government of Canada to consult with the public and to recommend an approach for managing Canada's used nuclear fuel. Three main fuel management methods are being explored and evaluated by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization: disposal in a Deep Geological Repository (DGR); reactor-site extended storage (RES); and centralized extended storage (CES), either above ground or below ground. The used nuclear fuel management system, whether a DGR or an extended storage system will require monitoring. In this study, a risk-based monitoring framework was developed for the used fuel management program. The proposed approach addresses the unique challenges of used fuel management being implemented in a multi-stakeholder process, including: (i) the complexity of the facilities; (ii) the need to consider both science-based risk and perceived risk in the monitoring plans; and (iii) the difficulty in conducting 'invasive' measurements of sealed systems, particularly over a very long time frame. (author)

  15. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not beenall that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed

  16. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not been all that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed safer systems. However, the

  17. Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

    1989-01-01

    Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

  18. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  19. REDD+: Quick Assessment of Deforestation Risk Based on Available Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Di Lallo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of the future dynamics of deforestation is essential to creating the basis for the effective implementation of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation initiatives. Such evaluation is often a challenging task, especially for countries that have to cope with a critical lack of data and capacities, higher uncertainties, and competing interests. We present a new modeling approach that makes use of available and easily accessible data sources to predict the spatial location of future deforestation. This approach is based on the Random Forest algorithm, which is a machine learning technique that enables evidence-based, data-driven decisions and is therefore often used in decision-making processes. Our objective is to provide a straightforward modeling approach that, without requiring cost-intensive assessments, can be applied in the early stages of REDD+, for a stepwise implementation approach of REDD+ projects in regions with limited availability of data, capital, technical infrastructure, or human capacities. The presented model focuses on building business-as-usual scenarios to identify and rank potentially suitable areas for REDD+ interventions. For validation purposes we applied the model to data from Nicaragua.

  20. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

  1. RIMAP demonstration project. Pat. 1: Risk based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Puck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic

    2003-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [1] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM - Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: development (RTD), demonstration (DEMO) and thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: identification of critical components, application of a multilevel risk analysis (..from ''screening'' to ''detailed analysis''), determination of PoF - Probability of Failure, determination of COF - Consequence of Failure and optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. (orig.)

  2. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  3. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  4. GASVOL 18'' gas pipeline - risk based inspection study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoernoey, Ola H.; Etterdal, Birger A. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Oslo (Norway); Guarize, Rosimar; Oliveira, Luiz F.S. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil); Faertes, Denise; Dias, Ricardo [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    This paper describes a risk based approach and inspection planning as part of the Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) system for the 95.5 km long 18'' GASVOL gas pipeline in the South eastern region of Brazil transporting circa 5 000 000 m3 dry gas per day. Pipeline systems can be subject to several degradation mechanisms and inspection and monitoring are used to ensure system integrity. Modern pipeline regulations and codes are normally based on a core safety or risk philosophy. The detailed design requirements presented in design codes are practical interpretations established so as to fulfill these core objectives. A given pipeline, designed, constructed and installed according to a pipeline code is therefore the realization of a structure, which, along its whole length, meets the applicable safety objectives of that code. The main objective of Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) is to control and document the integrity of the pipeline for its whole service life, and to do this in a cost-effective manner. DNV has a specific approach to RBI planning, starting with an initial qualitative assessment where pipelines and damage type are ranked according to risk and potential risk reduction by an inspection and then carried forward to a quantitative detailed assessment where the level of complexity and accuracy can vary based on availability of information and owner needs. Detailed assessment requires significant effort in data gathering. The findings are dependent upon the accuracy of the inspection data, and on DNV's interpretation of the pipeline reference system and simplifications in the inspection data reported. The following specific failure mechanisms were investigated: internal corrosion, external corrosion, third party interference, landslides and black powder. RBI planning, in general words, is a 'living process'. In order to optimize future inspections, it is essential that the analyses utilize the most recent information regarding

  5. Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

    2013-02-12

    Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

  6. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk-Based Disposal Plan for PCB Paint in the TRA Fluorinel Dissolution Process Mockup and Gamma Facilities Canal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. A. Montgomery

    2008-05-01

    This Toxic Substances Control Act Risk-Based Polychlorinated Biphenyl Disposal plan was developed for the Test Reactor Area Fluorinel Dissolution Process Mockup and Gamma Facilities Waste System, located in Building TRA-641 at the Reactor Technology Complex, Idaho National Laboratory Site, to address painted surfaces in the empty canal under 40 CFR 761.62(c) for paint, and under 40 CFR 761.61(c) for PCBs that may have penetrated into the concrete. The canal walls and floor will be painted with two coats of contrasting non-PCB paint and labeled as PCB. The canal is covered with open decking; the access grate is locked shut and signed to indicate PCB contamination in the canal. Access to the canal will require facility manager permission. Protective equipment for personnel and equipment entering the canal will be required. Waste from the canal, generated during ultimate Decontamination and Decommissioning, shall be managed and disposed as PCB Bulk Product Waste.

  8. The contribution of science to risk-based decision-making: lessons from the development of full-scale treatment measures for acidic mine waters at Wheal Jane, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Paul L; Coulton, Richard H; Froggatt, Eric C

    2005-02-01

    The use of risk-based decision-making in environmental management is often assumed to rely primarily on the availability of robust scientific data and insights, while in practice socio-economic criteria are often of considerable importance. However, the relative contributions to decision-making made by scientific and socio-economic inputs are rarely assessed, and even less commonly reported. Such an assessment has been made for a major remediation project in southwest England, in which some 300 l/s of highly acidic, metalliferous mine waters are now being treated using oxidation and chemical neutralisation. In the process of reaching the decision to commission the treatment plant, a wide range of scientific studies were undertaken, including: biological impact assessments, hydrogeological investigations of the effect of pumping on the flooded mine system, and hydrological and geochemical characterisation, together with integrated catchment modelling, of pollutant sources and pathways. These investigations revealed that, despite the spectacular nature of the original mine water outburst in 1992, the ecology of the Fal estuary remains remarkably robust. No scientific evidence emerged of any grounds for concern over the estuarine ecology, even if mine water were left to flow untreated. However, a rare ecological resource known as "maerl" (a form of calcified seaweed) is harvested annually in the estuary, providing significant revenue to the local economy and underpinning the 'clean' image of local sea water. Social and environmental benefit surveys revealed strong public perceptions that any visible discoloration in the estuary must indicate a diminution in quality of the maerl, to the detriment of both the public image and economy of the area. This factor proved sufficient to justify the continued pump-and-treat operations at the mine site. Although the decisive factor in the end was socio-economic in nature, robust assessment of this factor could not have been made

  9. Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

  10. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  11. Waste-acceptance criteria and risk-based thinking for radioactive-waste classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowenthal, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    The US system of radioactive-waste classification and its development provide a reference point for the discussion of risk-based thinking in waste classification. The official US system is described and waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites are introduced because they constitute a form of de facto waste classification. Risk-based classification is explored and it is found that a truly risk-based system is context-dependent: risk depends not only on the waste-management activity but, for some activities such as disposal, it depends on the specific physical context. Some of the elements of the official US system incorporate risk-based thinking, but like many proposed alternative schemes, the physical context of disposal is ignored. The waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites do account for this context dependence and could be used as a risk-based classification scheme for disposal. While different classes would be necessary for different management activities, the waste-acceptance criteria would obviate the need for the current system and could better match wastes to disposal environments saving money or improving safety or both

  12. Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

    2015-06-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

  13. Microbial quality of reclaimed water for urban reuses: Probabilistic risk-based investigation and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhipi-Shrestha, Gyan; Hewage, Kasun; Sadiq, Rehan

    2017-01-15

    Although Canada has abundant freshwater resources, many cities still experience seasonal water shortage. Supply-side and demand-side management is a core strategy to address this water shortage. Under this strategy, reclaimed water, which the Canadian public is willing to use for non-potable purposes, is an option. However, no universal guidelines exist for reclaimed water use. Despite the federal government's long-term goal to develop guidelines for many water reuse applications, guidelines have only been prescribed for reclaimed water use in toilet and urinal flushing in Canada. At the provincial level, British Columbia (BC) has promulgated guidelines for wide applications of reclaimed water but only at broad class levels. This research has investigated and proposed probabilistic risk-based recommended values for microbial quality of reclaimed water in various non-potable urban reuses. The health risk was estimated by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations were used in the analysis to include variability and uncertainty in input data. The proposed recommended values are based on the indicator organism E. coli. The required treatment levels for reuse were also estimated. In addition, the recommended values were successfully applied to three wastewater treatment effluents in the Okanagan Valley, BC, Canada. The health risks associated with other bacterial pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni and Salmonella spp.), virus (adenovirus, norovirus, and rotavirus), and protozoa (Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia spp.), were also estimated. The estimated risks indicate the effectiveness of the E. coli-based water quality recommended values. Sensitivity analysis shows the pathogenic E. coli ratio and morbidity are the most sensitive input parameters for all water reuses. The proposed recommended values could be further improved by using national or regional data on water exposures, disease burden per case, and the susceptibility

  14. Risk based knowledge assessments: towards a toolbox for managing key knowledge assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, Clive

    2008-01-01

    Full text: It is now well acknowledged that considerable Knowledge Management (KM) issues are faced by national and international nuclear communities. Much of these problems relate to issues of an ageing workforce and the significantly reduced influx of new generation of nuclear engineers and scientists. The management discipline of KM contains a broad spectrum of methods and techniques. However, the effective implementation of a KM strategy requires the selection and deployment of appropriate and targeted approaches that are pertinent to the particular issues of the technical or business area within an organisation. A clear strategy is contingent upon an assessment of what are the knowledge areas and what are the key (knowledge) risk areas. In particular the following issues have to be addressed: 'what knowledge exists?', 'what is the nature and format of that knowledge?' and 'what knowledge is key to our continued, safe, and effective operation?'. Answers to such questions will enable an organisation to prioritise KM effort and employ subsequent KM approaches that are appropriate. Subsequent approaches ranging from the utilisation of information technologies, such as databases; knowledge retention methods; and the setting up of Community of Practices to share knowledge and experience. This paper considers a risk assessment based approach to KM. In so doing the paper extends work previously reported on an approach to conducting knowledge audits by considering the integration of that approach with approaches to (knowledge) risk assessment. The paper also provides a brief review of the various KM approaches that can act to reduce the level of risk faced by an organisation. The paper concludes by reflecting upon the role, value of deploying such a risk based approach. (author)

  15. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  16. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  17. Social and hygienic monitoring today: state and prospects in conjunction with the risk-based supervision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.V. Zaitseva

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It is shown in the article that since the establishment in 1992 and until now the social and health monitoring (SHM operates as a complex open system of extended collection and processing of heterogeneous data about the parameters of the environment, socio-economic indicators of living of the population of the country’s regions, medical and demographic characteristics of society as a whole and of individual population groups. As part of the SHM system Rospotrebnadzor annually performs hundreds of thousands of instrumental measurements of objects in the environment of the Russian Federation. These federal and regional information assets have tremendous analytical capacity and allow a knowledge-based processing of information in the "health-environment" system for a variety of management tasks of sanitary and epidemiological situation. Changing of the general paradigm of control and supervisory activities of Rospotrebnadzor and giving a fundamentally new status of control measures to researches and measurements of the system of social and hygienic monitoring without interaction with legal entities and individual entrepreneurs were important bases for further improvement of the SHM. The development of SHM in conjunction with the risk-based supervision model can significantly improve analytical capabilities, effectiveness and efficiency of each system. This development requires the adoption of a new edition of The statements of the SHM, the development of a scientific approach to the formation of "risk profiles" of objects of sanitary and epidemiological surveillance; the development of methodological approaches to the selection of points and formation of programs of instrumental studies of air, water and soil as the control activities in the areas of influence of economic entities. Of great current interest are the development and consolidation of regulatory requirements for the registration of the results of sampling and measurement in the

  18. Sensitivity of Risk-Based Maintenance Planning of Offshore Wind Turbine Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    Inspection and maintenance expenses cover a considerable part of the cost of energy from offshore wind turbines. Risk-based maintenance planning approaches are a powerful tool to optimize maintenance and inspection actions and decrease the total maintenance expenses. Risk-based planning is based...... on many input parameters, which are in reality often not completely known. This paper will assess the cost impact of this incomplete knowledge based on a case study following risk-based maintenance planning. The sensitivity study focuses on weather forecast uncertainties, incomplete knowledge about...... the needed repair time on the site as well as uncertainties about the operational range of the boat and helicopter used to access the broken wind turbine. The cost saving potential is estimated by running Crude Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...

  19. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonova, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

  20. Integration of laboratory bioassays into the risk-based corrective action process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, D.; Messina, F.; Clark, J.

    1995-01-01

    Recent data generated by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) and others indicate that residual hydrocarbon may be bound/sequestered in soil such that it is unavailable for microbial degradation, and thus possibly not bioavailable to human/ecological receptors. A reduction in bioavailability would directly equate to reduced exposure and, therefore, potentially less-conservative risk-based cleanup soil goals. Laboratory bioassays which measure bioavailability/toxicity can be cost-effectively integrated into the risk-based corrective action process. However, in order to maximize the cost-effective application of bioassays several site-specific parameters should be addressed up front. This paper discusses (1) the evaluation of parameters impacting the application of bioassays to soils contaminated with metals and/or petroleum hydrocarbons and (2) the cost-effective integration of bioassays into a tiered ASTM type framework for risk-based corrective action

  1. RIMAP demonstration project. Risk-based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Buck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic, M.

    2004-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industry (2000)] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM, Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: - development (RTD); - demonstration (DEMO): - thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: - identification of critical components; - application of a multilevel risk analysis (...from 'screening' to 'detailed analysis'); - determination of PoF (Probability of Failure); - determination of CoF (Consequence of Failure); - optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. From our experience with the application of the RIMAP methodology the following conclusions can be drawn: The use of risk-based methods in inspection and maintenance of piping systems in power plants gives transparency to the decision making process and gives an optimized maintenance policy based on current state of the components. The results of the work clearly show the power of the proposed method for concentration on critical items: out of 64 monitored components 5 were selected for intermediate analysis and only 1 for the detailed analysis (probabilistic high temperature fracture mechanics)

  2. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

  3. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  4. Risk based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators; Risikobasierte wirtschaftliche Optimierung von Investitionsentscheidungen regulierter Stromnetzbetreiber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John, Oliver

    2012-07-01

    The author of the contribution under consideration reports on risk-based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators. The focus is the economically rational decision behavior of operators under certain regulatory requirements. Investments in power distribution systems form the items subject to decisions. Starting from a description of theoretical and practical regulatory approaches, their financial implications are quantified at first. On this basis, optimization strategies are derived with respect to the investment behavior. For this purpose, an optimization algorithm is developed and applied to exemplary companies. Finally, effects of uncertainties in regulatory systems are investigated. In this context, Monte Carlo simulations are used in conjunction with real options analysis.

  5. Data analyses and modelling for risk based monitoring of mycotoxins in animal feed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ine van der Fels-Klerx, H.J.; Adamse, Paulien; Punt, Ans; Asselt, van Esther D.

    2018-01-01

    Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study

  6. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  7. Risk-Based School Inspections: Impact of Targeted Inspection Approaches on Dutch Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehren, Melanie C.; Shackleton, Nichola

    2016-01-01

    In most countries, publicly funded schools are held accountable to one inspectorate and are judged against agreed national standards. Many inspectorates of education have recently moved towards more proportional risk-based inspection models, targeting high-risk schools for visits, while schools with satisfactory student attainment levels are…

  8. Risk-Based Inspection and Maintenance Planning Optimization of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramírez, José G. Rangel; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    A risk-based inspection planning (RBI) approach applied to offshore wind turbines (OWT) is presented, based on RBI methodology developed in the last decades in the oil and gas industry. In wind farm (IWF) and single-alone locations are considered using a code-established turbulence models including...

  9. 76 FR 39885 - Risk-Based Targeting of Foreign Flagged Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODUs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-07

    ... Foreign Flagged Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODUs) AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION: Notice of... 11-06, Risk-Based Targeting of Foreign Flagged Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODUs). This policy... applicable regulations, every foreign-flagged mobile offshore drilling unit (MODU) must undergo a Coast Guard...

  10. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  11. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barlow, S.M.; Boobis, A.R.; Bridges, J.; Cockburn, A.; Dekant, W.; Hepburn, P.; Houben, G.F.; König, J.; Nauta, M.J.; Schuermans, J.; Bánáti, D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Food legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management

  12. 12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

  13. Reliability and risk-based planning of operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Florian, Mihai; Berzonskis, Arvydas

    2016-01-01

    costly (and safe), and it is important to include in the reliability assessment the information obtained during operation (from condition monitoring and inspections) and the maintenance performed (incl. repairs and replacements). The paper presents a risk-based approach for optimal planning of Operation...

  14. Economy, efficacy, and feasibility of a risk-based control program against paratuberculosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kudahl, Anne Braad; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Østergaard, Søren

    2008-01-01

    Long-term effects of paratuberculosis on within-herd prevalence and on-farm economy of implementing risk-based control strategies were compared with alternative strategies by using a herd-simulation model. Closing transmission routes is essential for effective control of paratuberculosis. However...

  15. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PRA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations form a risk perspective. The configurations of particular interest involve components which are down during power operation. Controlling plant configurations from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser control in areas unimportant to risk

  16. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  17. Attempts to Dodge Drowning in Data : Rule- and Risk-Based Anti Money Laundering Policies Compared

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Unger, B.; van Waarden, F.

    Both in the US and in Europe anti money laundering policy switched from a rule-to a risk-based reporting system in order to avoid over-reporting by the private sector. However, reporting increased in most countries, while the quality of information decreased. Governments drowned in data because

  18. 12 CFR 652.80 - When you must determine the risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... your risk-based capital level at any time. (c) If you anticipate entering into any new business... level, which must include the new business activity, and report this pro forma determination to the Director, Office of Secondary Market Oversight, at least 10-business days prior to implementation of the...

  19. Risk-Based Treatment Targets for Onsite Non-Potable Water Reuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation presents risk-based enteric pathogen log reduction targets for non-potable and potable uses of a variety of alternative source waters (i.e., municipal wastewater, locally-collected greywater, rainwater, and stormwater). A probabilistic, forward Quantitative Micr...

  20. Optimal, Risk-based Operation and Maintenance Planning for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based life-cycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue...

  1. Development of component reliability data for PSA and risk based management in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshihiro Tomioka; Mitsumasa Hirano; Shunsuke Kondo

    1997-01-01

    The author presents the outline of development of the component reliability data for PSA and risk based management in Japan. In the first part following the introduction, the development process is described. The next part describes issues discussed in the course of the development, which are treatment of zero failure data, error factor, estimation of unavailable failure rate and integral test

  2. Reliability analysis and risk-based methods for planning of operation & maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    for extreme and fatigue limit states are presented. Operation & Maintenance planning often follows corrective and preventive strategies based on information from condition monitoring and structural health monitoring systems. A reliability- and risk-based approach is presented where a life-cycle approach...

  3. A Study on the Estimation Method of Risk Based Area for Jetty Safety Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byeong-Wook Nam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the importance of safety-monitoring systems was highlighted by the unprecedented collision between a ship and a jetty in Yeosu. Accordingly, in this study, we introduce the concept of risk based area and develop a methodology for a jetty safety-monitoring system. By calculating the risk based areas for a ship and a jetty, the risk of collision was evaluated. To calculate the risk based areas, we employed an automatic identification system for the ship, stopping-distance equations, and the regulation velocity near the jetty. In this paper, we suggest a risk calculation method for jetty safety monitoring that can determine the collision probability in real time and predict collisions using the amount of overlap between the two calculated risk based areas. A test was conducted at a jetty control center at GS Caltex, and the effectiveness of the proposed risk calculation method was verified. The method is currently applied to the jetty-monitoring system at GS Caltex in Yeosu for the prevention of collisions.

  4. Generating evidence on a risk-based monitoring approach in the academic setting – lessons learned

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda von Niederhäusern

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In spite of efforts to employ risk-based strategies to increase monitoring efficiency in the academic setting, empirical evidence on their effectiveness remains sparse. This mixed-methods study aimed to evaluate the risk-based on-site monitoring approach currently followed at our academic institution. Methods We selected all studies monitored by the Clinical Trial Unit (CTU according to Risk ADApted MONitoring (ADAMON at the University Hospital Basel, Switzerland, between 01.01.2012 and 31.12.2014. We extracted study characteristics and monitoring information from the CTU Enterprise Resource Management system and from monitoring reports of all selected studies. We summarized the data descriptively. Additionally, we conducted semi-structured interviews with the three current CTU monitors. Results During the observation period, a total of 214 monitoring visits were conducted in 43 studies resulting in 2961 documented monitoring findings. Our risk-based approach predominantly identified administrative (46.2% and patient right findings (49.1%. We identified observational study design, high ADAMON risk category, industry sponsorship, the presence of an electronic database, experienced site staff, and inclusion of vulnerable study population to be factors associated with lower numbers of findings. The monitors understand the positive aspects of a risk-based approach but fear missing systematic errors due to the low frequency of visits. Conclusions We show that the factors mostly increasing the risk for on-site monitoring findings are underrepresented in the current risk analysis scheme. Our risk-based on-site approach should further be complemented by centralized data checks, allowing monitors to transform their role towards partners for overall trial quality, and success.

  5. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... Exchange rate derivative contract means a cross-currency interest rate swap, forward foreign-exchange contract, currency option purchased, or any other instrument linked to exchange rates that gives rise to...) Equity securities that are publicly traded; (vi) Convertible bonds that are publicly traded; (vii) Money...

  6. Risk-Based Radioactive Liquid Effluent Monitoring Requirements at the U. S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannik, G.T.

    2001-01-01

    For Department of Energy (DOE) facilities, clear regulatory guidance exists for structuring radiological air emissions monitoring programs. However, there are no parallel regulations for radiological liquid effluent monitoring programs. In order to bridge this gap and to technically justify liquid effluent monitoring decisions at DOE's Savannah River Site, a graded, risk-basked approach has been established to determine the monitoring and sampling criteria to be applied at each liquid discharge point

  7. Rational risk-based decision support for drinking water well managers by optimized monitoring designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhöfer, R.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.

    2011-12-01

    Advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. Considering the insufficient knowledge about hazards and transport properties within the catchment, current Water Safety Plans recommend that catchment managers and stakeholders know, control and monitor all possible hazards within the catchments and perform rational risk-based decisions. Our goal is to supply catchment managers with the required probabilistic risk information, and to generate tools that allow for optimal and rational allocation of resources between improved monitoring versus extended safety margins and risk mitigation measures. To support risk managers with the indispensable information, we address the epistemic uncertainty of advective-dispersive solute transport and well vulnerability (Enzenhoefer et al., 2011) within a stochastic simulation framework. Our framework can separate between uncertainty of contaminant location and actual dilution of peak concentrations by resolving heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulation. To keep computational costs low, we solve the reverse temporal moment transport equation. Only in post-processing, we recover the time-dependent solute breakthrough curves and the deduced well vulnerability criteria from temporal moments by non-linear optimization. Our first step towards optimal risk management is optimal positioning of sampling locations and optimal choice of data types to reduce best the epistemic prediction uncertainty for well-head delineation, using the cross-bred Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (CLUE, Leube et al., 2011) for optimal sampling design. Better monitoring leads to more reliable and realistic protection zones and thus helps catchment managers to better justify smaller, yet conservative safety margins. In order to allow an optimal choice in sampling strategies, we compare the trade-off in monitoring versus the delineation costs by accounting for ill

  8. National Drought Policy: Shifting the Paradigm from Crisis to Risk-based Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhite, D. A.; Sivakumar, M. K.; Stefanski, R.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a normal part of climate for virtually all of the world's climatic regimes. To better address the risks associated with this hazard and societal vulnerability, there must be a dramatic paradigm shift in our approach to drought management in the coming decade in the light of the increasing frequency of droughts and projections of increased severity and duration of these events in the future for many regions, especially in the developing world. Addressing this challenge will require an improved awareness of drought as a natural hazard, the establishment of integrated drought monitoring and early warning systems, a higher level of preparedness that fully incorporates risk-based management, and the adoption of national drought policies that are directed at increasing the coping capacity and resilience of populations to future drought episodes. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in partnership with other United Nations' agencies, the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, NOAA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other partners, is currently launching a program to organize a High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) in March 2013 to encourage the development of national drought policies through the development of a compendium of key policy elements. The key objectives of a national drought policy are to: (1) encourage vulnerable economic sectors and population groups to adopt self-reliant measures that promote risk management; (2) promote sustainable use of the agricultural and natural resource base; and (3) facilitate early recovery from drought through actions consistent with national drought policy objectives. The key elements of a drought policy framework are policy and governance, including political will; addressing risk and improving early warnings, including vulnerability analysis, impact assessment, and communication; mitigation and preparedness, including the application of effective and

  9. Alternative risk-based criteria for transportation of radioactive materials on the United States Department of Energy Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercado, J.E.; Field, J.G.; Smith, R.J.; Wang, O.S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the development of an alternative method to evaluate packaging safety for radioactive material transported solely within the boundaries of a restricted site; the method uses risk-based criteria to assess and document packaging safety. These criteria offer a standard against which the results of a risk assessment are compared to evaluate the safety of a transportation operation. Numerous payloads are transported entirely within the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site boundaries. The U.S. Department of Energy requires that the safety of onsite transportation be equivalent to the safety provided for transporting radioactive materials in commerce as regulated by the U.S. Department of Transportation and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Some onsite packaging configurations do not meet the performance criteria that form the basis of these regulations, necessitating the establishment of alternative criteria to evaluate safety. Quantitatively defined criteria have been derived from the U.S. Department of Transportation limits for package radiation levels, curie content, activity release, and external contamination levels. Recommendations of the International Committee on Radiation Protection may further restrict the criteria. The proposed method documents packaging safety in a transportation risk assessment. The assessment estimates accident frequencies, conservatively evaluates the dose consequences of these accidents, and compares the results to the established risk acceptance criteria. Specific Hanford Site onsite packaging and transportation issues illustrate the alternative method. The paper compares the solutions resulting from the application of risk-based criteria to those resulting from strict compliance with commercial transportation regulations. (author)

  10. Approaching application of risk-based inspection to ASME code section XI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedden, Owen F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper will describe current efforts within the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Committee's Subcommittee on Nuclear Inservice Inspection to introduce risk-based technology to optimize inservice inspection of nuclear power plants. The subcommittee is responsible for the content of ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The paper will first provide the historical background for the inspection program currently in Section XI. It will then describe the development of new technology through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development program. Next, the work now going on in two of the groups under the Section XI committee will be described in detail. Each of these two efforts is directed toward the application of new risk-based inspection technology to nuclear piping systems. Finally, the directions of additional research and applications of the technology will be discussed. (author)

  11. Using risk-based remedy selection to minimize remedial response costs -- A case history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, S.A.; Hochreiter, J.J. Jr.; Stout, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    The authors used a risk-based remedy selection at a former coal tar emulsion production facility in a heavily industrialized area of northern New Jersey. Historical site activities resulted in extensive contamination of shallow site soils from high molecular weight Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs), including potentially carcinogenic PAHs (cPAHs). Then-current risk-based proposed soil cleanup goals developed by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) were not representative of potential exposures under current or future exposure scenarios. Alternate soil cleanup goals were calculated, incorporating relevant input variables that accurately reflected site conditions and potential receptors/exposure scenarios; these cleanup goals demonstrated the site did not pose the degree of risk assumed by the NJDEP. However, they were not accepted by NJDEP as performance standards for remedial activities for ''policy'' reasons

  12. Risk-based optimization of pipe inspections in large underground networks with imprecise information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancuso, A.; Compare, M.; Salo, A.; Zio, E.; Laakso, T.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present a novel risk-based methodology for optimizing the inspections of large underground infrastructure networks in the presence of incomplete information about the network features and parameters. The methodology employs Multi Attribute Value Theory to assess the risk of each pipe in the network, whereafter the optimal inspection campaign is built with Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA). Specifically, Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) is employed to identify Pareto-optimal portfolios of pipe inspections. The proposed methodology is illustrated by reporting a real case study on the large-scale maintenance optimization of the sewerage network in Espoo, Finland. - Highlights: • Risk-based approach to optimize pipe inspections on large underground networks. • Reasonable computational effort to select efficient inspection portfolios. • Possibility to accommodate imprecise expert information. • Feasibility of the approach shown by Espoo water system case study.

  13. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  14. Development of the Risk-Based Inspection Techniques and Pilot Plant Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    Risk-based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants. System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the probabilistic risk analysis or probabilistic safety analysis developed to meet the individual plant evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for maintenance rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low-risk significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of pilot plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates that safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. The reduction in inspection reduces the person-rem exposure resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publication by the ASME CRTD

  15. Development of a risk-based in-service inspection program for an LMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.W.; Buschman, H.W.

    1996-01-01

    The emerging application of risk-based assessment technology to the operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants holds considerable promise for improving efficiency and reducing operating costs. Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) is a liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor (LMR) that operated for 30 yr before shutting down in September 1994 due to program termination. Prior to the shutdown of EBR-II, an in-service inspection (ISI) program was developed that exploited certain advantages of the LMR design. For example, it demonstrated passive response to plant upset events, low-pressure primary coolant, and compatibility of the coolant and reactor materials. This ISI program was based on work currently being done by an American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection

  16. On the development of the system of risk-based supervision in the field of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population and consumer protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.Y. Popova

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to fulfill the legal requirements for the transition to the new risk-based model of the state control (supervision in the Federal Service for Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, the methodical approaches to the classification of economic entities and activities of potential risk of injury have been developed. The risk assessment takes into account the frequency of violations of sanitary legislation, the severity of the consequences of these violations for the health and extent of negative effects, which is estimated in terms of population under the influence of the economic entity. Algorithms and methods for calculating the exposed population: workers, consumers, including consumer food products, non-food products and services; residents of settlements under the negative impact of air pollution, water and soil, have been developed. Regional and federal registries of objects for sanitary and epidemiological supervision are formed. Testing of the risk-based approaches in the regions allowed excluding the low risk harm objects when forming the audit plans for 2016, due to what the number of planned inspections all over country was reduces by more than 20 %. The basic directions of further improvement of the risk-based model of sanitary and epidemiological surveillance: its extension to the system of technical regulation and consumer protection; scientific substantiation of its volume, content and laboratory support of the scheduled inspections of objects belonging to different classes of health risk; improving procedures and methods for evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of risk-based supervisory activities; creation of an effective system of risk communication between the sanitary and epidemiological surveillance, economic entities, public organizations and associations and civil society.

  17. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

  18. The case for risk-based premiums in public health insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweifel, Peter; Breuer, Michael

    2006-04-01

    Uniform, risk-independent insurance premiums are accepted as part of 'managed competition' in health care. However, they are not compatible with optimality of health insurance contracts in the presence of both ex ante and ex post moral hazard. They have adverse effects on insurer behaviour even if risk adjustment is taken into account. Risk-based premiums combined with means-tested, tax-financed transfers are advocated as an alternative.

  19. Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

    2018-01-01

    In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

  20. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

  1. Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

    1989-10-01

    This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  2. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies

  3. Risk-based waste clearance concept for the D ampersand D program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Bhattacharyya, S.K.

    1996-01-01

    Large amounts of radioactively contaminated wastes are expected to result from decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities at nuclear facilities. Many of the waste materials, such as concrete rubble and scrap metals, are only slightly contaminated and can be recycled to minimize waste streams, resulting in substantial savings from reducing conventional waste disposal costs and recovering the values of the raw materials. For instance, a recent projection indicates that recycling an estimated 30 million tonnes of radioactive scrap metal (RSM) worldwide, having a corresponding recoverable value of about $10 billion to $20 billion, would avoid an estimated $5 billion in disposal costs. As an average heuristic, waste disposition constitutes ∼50% of total D ampersand D costs. There is thus a strong incentive to minimize the waste from D ampersand D activities. In the United States, no specific standards have been developed for the unrestricted release of bulk contaminated materials, although standards for the unrestricted release of radioactive surface contamination have existed for ∼20 yr. Materials are not commonly released because of the lack of risk-based justifications. Recent guidance from international bodies has established a basis for deriving risk-based release limits for radioactive materials. It is important, therefore, to evaluate the feasibility of recycling, because if it is feasible, risk-based release limits for the reusable materials will need to be established

  4. 12 CFR Appendix A to Part 208 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for State Member Banks: Risk-Based Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... reverse within the year. Such projections should include the estimated effect of tax-planning strategies... charges for certain market risks into the risk-based capital ratio. When calculating their risk-based... supplemental rules to determine qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market...

  5. The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.T.

    1998-01-01

    Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

  6. Risk-based replacement strategies for redundant deteriorating reinforced concrete pipe networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adey, B.; Bernard, O.; Gerard, B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives an example of how predictive models of the deterioration of reinforced concrete pipes and the consequences of failure can be used to develop risk-based replacement strategies for redundant reinforced concrete pipe networks. It also shows how an accurate deterioration prediction can lead to a reduction of agency costs, and illustrates the limitation of the incremental intervention step algorithm. The main conclusion is that the use of predictive models, such as those developed by Oxand S.A., in the determination of replacement strategies for redundant reinforced concrete pipe networks can lead to a significant reduction in overall costs for the owner of the structure. (author)

  7. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    the lifetime. Two different approaches are used; one uses a threshold value of the failure probability, and one uses a Limited Memory Influence Diagram. Both methods are tested for an application example using MonteCarlo sampling, and they are both found to be efficient and equally good.......For offshore wind farms, the costs due to operation and maintenance are large, and more optimal planning has the potential of reducing these costs. This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used for risk-based inspection planning, where the inspection plans are updated each year through...

  8. Experience with the implementation of a risk-based ISI program and inspection qualification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.

    1996-01-01

    Rolls Royce and Associates (RRA) are the Design Authority (DA) for Nuclear Steam Raising Plant (NSRP) used for the Royal Naval Nuclear Fleet. Over the past seven years RRA, with support from the Ministry of Defense, has developed and implemented a risk based in-service inspection (RBISI) strategy for the NSRP. Having used risk as a means of optimizing where to inspect, an inspection qualification (IQ) process has now been put in place to ensure that proposed inspections deliver the expected gains assumed. This qualification process follows very closely that currently being put forward by the European Network on Inspection Qualification (ENIQ)

  9. Status of existing federal environmental risk-based standards applicable to Department of Energy operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilyard, G.R.

    1991-09-01

    When conducting its environmental restoration, waste management, and decontamination and decommissioning activities, the US Department of Energy (DOE) must comply with a myriad of regulatory procedures and environmental standards. This paper assesses the status of existing federal risk-based standards that may be applied to chemical and radioactive substances on DOE sites. Gaps and inconsistencies among the existing standards and the technical issues associated with the application of those standards are identified. Finally, the implications of the gaps, inconsistencies, and technical issues on DOE operations are discussed, and approaches to resolving the gaps, inconsistencies, and technical issues are identified. 6 refs

  10. Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – Some Canadian and Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phaneuf, M.; McKee, M.; Woods, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Risk-Based Approach to Environmental Assessment in Australia: • This has emerged over the last 2 decades; • Currently usually based around the Australian and New Zealand standard (AS4360:1999) for risk assessment: • Potential impact events; • Inherent risk levels (e.g. low, moderate) using a matrix approach; • Design and operational control measures; • Residual risk levels; • Outcomes to be achieved; • Outcomes measurement criteria - • Leading to ‘compliance’ monitoring; • Leading indicator criteria - • Leading to ‘early warning’ monitoring

  11. Cyberfraud and the implications for effective risk-based responses: themes from UK research

    OpenAIRE

    Levi, Michael; Doig, Alan; Gundur, Rajeev; Wall, David; Williams, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    The nature of the risk or threat posed by ‘cyberfraud’ - fraud with a cyber dimension – is examined empirically based on data reported by the public and business to Action Fraud. These are used to examine the implications for a more effective risk-based response, both by category of fraud and also responding to cyberfraud generally, not just in the UK. A key characteristics of cyberfraud is that it can be globalised, unless there are major national differences in attractiveness of targets or ...

  12. Risk based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat in the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Sanaa, Moez; Havelaar, Arie H.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) allows evaluating the public health impact of food safety targets to support the control of foodborne pathogens. We estimate the risk reduction of setting microbiological criteria (MCs) for Campylobacter on broiler meat in 25 European countries......, applying quantitative data from the 2008 EU baseline survey. We demonstrate that risk based MCs can be derived without explicit consideration of Food Safety Objectives or Performance Objectives. Published QMRA models for the consumer phase and dose response provide a relation between Campylobacter...

  13. Risk-based approach in valuation of workplace injury rate for transportation and construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykhtin, Kirill; Simankina, Tatiana; Sharmanov, Vladimir; Kopytova, Anna

    2017-10-01

    The danger of injuries and accidents in various industries such as transportation and construction urges the government to control the occupational health and safety more strictly. However, in order to do so with the minimal costs modern risk management tools, have to be implemented. Risk-based approach is an essential tool for competent risk- assessment and used in a great variety of other countries, demonstrating great results in providing of safe working environment. The article describes the problems that the implementation of the method faces in Russia and suggests certain ways to resolve them.

  14. The challenge of setting risk-based microbiological criteria for Listeria monocytogenes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit

    2011-01-01

    After more than 20 years of work with discussing the setting of microbiological criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in foods, Codex Alimentarius on Food Hygiene has finalised a proposal that was recently adopted by the Codex Alimentarius Commission. The effort of developing procedures for making...... the microbiological criteria risk-based to the greatest extent possible has challenged scientists and managers during this long time period. Yet, the establishment of microbiological criteria for L. monocytogenes is still being discussed and several approaches are possible. Setting of microbiological criteria...

  15. The challenge of defining risk-based metrics to improve food safety: inputs from the BASELINE project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfreda, Gerardo; De Cesare, Alessandra

    2014-08-01

    In 2002, the Regulation (EC) 178 of the European Parliament and of the Council states that, in order to achieve the general objective of a high level of protection of human health and life, food law shall be based on risk analysis. However, the Commission Regulation No 2073/2005 on microbiological criteria for foodstuffs requires that food business operators ensure that foodstuffs comply with the relevant microbiological criteria. Such criteria define the acceptability of a product, a batch of foodstuffs or a process, based on the absence, presence or number of micro-organisms, and/or on the quantity of their toxins/metabolites, per unit(s) of mass, volume, area or batch. The same Regulation describes a food safety criterion as a mean to define the acceptability of a product or a batch of foodstuff applicable to products placed on the market; moreover, it states a process hygiene criterion as a mean indicating the acceptable functioning of the production process. Both food safety criteria and process hygiene criteria are not based on risk analysis. On the contrary, the metrics formulated by the Codex Alimentarius Commission in 2004, named Food Safety Objective (FSO) and Performance Objective (PO), are risk-based and fit the indications of Regulation 178/2002. The main aims of this review are to illustrate the key differences between microbiological criteria and the risk-based metrics defined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission and to explore the opportunity and also the possibility to implement future European Regulations including PO and FSO as supporting parameters to microbiological criteria. This review clarifies also the implications of defining an appropriate level of human protection, how to establish FSO and PO and how to implement them in practice linked to each other through quantitative risk assessment models. The contents of this review should clarify the context for application of the results collected during the EU funded project named BASELINE (www

  16. 12 CFR 932.7 - Reporting requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... to the Finance Board by the 15th business day of each month its risk-based capital requirement by... Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL... close of business of the last business day of the preceding month, or more frequently, as may be...

  17. Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

  18. Data Analyses and Modelling for Risk Based Monitoring of Mycotoxins in Animal Feed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.J. (Ine van der Fels-Klerx

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study aimed to prioritize feed products in the Netherlands for deoxynivalenol and aflatoxin B1 monitoring. Historical mycotoxin monitoring results from the period 2007–2016 were combined with data from other sources. Based on occurrence, groundnuts had high priority for aflatoxin B1 monitoring; some feed materials (maize and maize products and several oil seed products and complete/complementary feed excluding dairy cattle and young animals had medium priority; and all other animal feeds and feed materials had low priority. For deoxynivalenol, maize by-products had a high priority, complete and complementary feed for pigs had a medium priority and all other feed and feed materials a low priority. Also including health consequence estimations showed that feed materials that ranked highest for aflatoxin B1 included sunflower seed and palmkernel expeller/extracts and maize. For deoxynivalenol, maize products were ranked highest, followed by various small grain cereals (products; all other feed materials were of lower concern. Results of this study have proven to be useful in setting up the annual risk based control program for mycotoxins in animal feed and feed materials.

  19. Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G., E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: egr@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

  20. A risk based model supporting long term maintenance and reinvestment strategy decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sand, Kjell; Montard, Julien; Tremoen, Tord H.

    2010-02-15

    This Technical Report is a product from the project Risk-Based Distribution System Asset Management (short: RISK DSAM) - Work Package 3 Risk exposure on company/strategic level. In the report a concept for portfolio distribution system asset management is presented. The approach comprises four main steps: 1. Decide the asset base. 2. Divide the asset base into relevant archetypes. 3. Develop or select relevant maintenance and reinvestment strategies for the different archetypes. 4. Estimate risks and costs for each archetype for the relevant strategies. For the different steps guidelines are given and a proposal for implementation of the concept is given in terms of a proposed IT system architecture.To evaluate the feasibility of such a concept, a prototype was developed in by using Visual Basic macros in Excel using real technical data from a small DSO. The experience from using the prototype shows that the concept is realistic. All assets are included and depending of the ambition of the risk analysis both simple simulation models and more advanced might be embedded. Presentations of the concept for a utility engineers have receive positive feedback indicating that the concept is regarded as a practical way to develop risk based asset management strategies for the asset fleet. It should be noted that the concept should be applied on a company strategic level and is thus not designed to be applied for a specific project or asset decisions. For this, more detailed models with area specific information, topology etc. are needed. (Author)

  1. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  2. Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringland, J.T.

    1995-08-01

    The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

  3. Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  4. Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

    2016-01-01

    Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.

  5. Risk-based prioritization and its application to inspection of valves in the water sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marlow, David R.; Beale, David J.; Mashford, John S.

    2012-01-01

    Isolation valves facilitate the effective operation and maintenance of water supply networks, but their sheer number presents a significant asset management challenge. If left unmanaged, valve reliability issues can become widespread. Inspections provide a means of increasing reliability, but a survey of industry practices indicated that some utilities did not have such a program in place. To improve asset management and reduce business risk exposure, such utilities need an effective means of commencing inspection programs. From a theoretical perspective, risk concepts provide a means of optimizing maintenance effort. However, in the face of poor data on reliability or condition, pragmatic approaches to risk-based prioritization are needed. One such approach, risk indexing, is considered in this paper. Background on the research is presented, including the application of risk-based inspection concepts within the water sector. The development of a risk indexing scheme is then investigated, drawing on two industry workshops in which the analytical hierarchy process was used to set relative weights. It is concluded that risk indexing provides the basis for a rational prioritization process in the absence of data on valve reliability or condition. - Highlights: ► Importance of valve inspections to water network reliability. ► Theoretical perspective of risk concepts that provide a means of optimizing inspection programs. ► Pragmatic approaches to prioritization in light of poor valve data. ► Development and assessment of a risk index scheme. ► Use of the analytical hierarchy process to set relative weights of risk factors.

  6. Data Analyses and Modelling for Risk Based Monitoring of Mycotoxins in Animal Feed

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. (Ine); Adamse, Paulien; Punt, Ans; van Asselt, Esther D.

    2018-01-01

    Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study aimed to prioritize feed products in the Netherlands for deoxynivalenol and aflatoxin B1 monitoring. Historical mycotoxin monitoring results from the period 2007–2016 were combined with data from other sources. Based on occurrence, groundnuts had high priority for aflatoxin B1 monitoring; some feed materials (maize and maize products and several oil seed products) and complete/complementary feed excluding dairy cattle and young animals had medium priority; and all other animal feeds and feed materials had low priority. For deoxynivalenol, maize by-products had a high priority, complete and complementary feed for pigs had a medium priority and all other feed and feed materials a low priority. Also including health consequence estimations showed that feed materials that ranked highest for aflatoxin B1 included sunflower seed and palmkernel expeller/extracts and maize. For deoxynivalenol, maize products were ranked highest, followed by various small grain cereals (products); all other feed materials were of lower concern. Results of this study have proven to be useful in setting up the annual risk based control program for mycotoxins in animal feed and feed materials. PMID:29373559

  7. Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

    2016-05-18

    In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013-2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes.

  8. TOURISM COMPANIES AND THE FALS PORTRAIT GIVEN BY CREATIVE ACCOUNTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARGARETA PENEOAȘU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Theodore Roosevelt expressed so well the need and effectiveness of natural resources “To waste, to destroy our natural resources, to skin and exhaust the land instead of using it so as to increase its usefulness, will result in undermining in the days of our children the very prosperity which we ought by right to hand down to them amplified and developed” in parallel with his statement that "Human beings are unique in that they can learn from others' experience, but also through its refusal to make use of this capacity". Some companies use the knowledge of professional accountants to manipulate figures contained in the annual accounts, without paying attention to detect when "creativity” exceeds the limits imposed by law. Sometimes, professional accountants are convinced on the one hand by incompetent managers, and on the other hand if the business downturn of the need for improvements in the figures in the annual accounts. When asking why a company with the object of catering and tourism would resort to the practice of using creative accounting, the answer is clear from the application of the trends in the field and from the differences that emerged from the accounting procedures used by companies and the moment they are adopted

  9. Bundesforschungsanstalt fuer Landwirtschaft Braunschweig-Voelkenrode (FAL). Annual report 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The tasks of the Bundesforschungsanstalt in the field of agricultural science and related sciences include research, the publication of scientific results, and the fostering of international cooperation with scientists and institutions. In the area preservation and optimization of the quality of soil, plant production and animal breeding, the objectives are also to record and evaluate alien and harmful substances, including radioactive materials, in agrarian ecosystems. Furthermore, investigations are carried through on the avoidance of health-endangering effects and hazards for farm-workers involving the risk of accidents. (ECB) [de

  10. FORTUNE TELLINGS THAT RELATED FRUITS / MEYVELERIN DILINDEN FAL VE ISARETLER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Saadettin EĞRİ

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study discusses the meanings attributed tovarious fruit in the fortune telling book Hursidname.Hursidname is located in the Library of Manuscripts andAncient Printed Books in Bursa and it’s characteristicsare interesting. It was written in the 18th century bySıdki and it is the only copy. In this book there are 36fruit and plant names. Every fruit’s loacations in the textwere given and all the fruit’s means were defined.Generally in this book there are some expectations andinformations about health, richness, chair, journey,sadness, beauty, pain, life, commerce, friends andenemies. There are good predictions for each person whomake a wish .

  11. A risk-based approach to health criteria for radon indoors -report on a WHO initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhaeusler, F.

    1994-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO), Regional Office for Europe, organised a meeting of a working group on indoor air quality in Eilat, Israel, from 28 March to 4 April 1993. The aim was to develop a risk-based approach to health criteria for radon indoors. The Group reviewed the latest epidemiological data from occupational and non-occupational radon exposure, animal experiments and dosimetry. The Group issued 14 conclusions and 23 recommendations on radon related risk to health, on risk management and risk communication. In summary, radon was confirmed as a human carcinogen. Indoor radon exposures resulting in individual risks exceeding 10 -3 per year are to be considered as severe and risk reduction programmes implemented. Guidance on risk management and communication is offered to national authorities. (author)

  12. A risk-based review of Instrument Air systems at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMoss, G.; Lofgren, E.; Rothleder, B.; Villeran, M.; Ruger, C.

    1990-01-01

    The broad objective of this analysis was to provide risk-based information to help focus regulatory actions related to Instrument Air (IA) systems at operating nuclear power plants. We first created an extensive data base of summarized and characterized IA-related events that gave a qualitative indication of the nature and severity of these events. Additionally, this data base was used to calculate the frequencies of certain events, which were used in the risk analysis. The risk analysis consisted of reviewing published PRAs and NRC Accident Sequence Precursor reports for IA-initiated accident sequences, IA interactions with frontline systems, and IA-related risk significant events. Sensitivity calculations were performed when possible. Generically, IA was found to contribute less to total risk than many safety systems; however, specific design weaknesses in safety systems, non-safety systems, and the IA system were found to be significant in risk. 22 refs., 13 figs., 24 tabs

  13. NDT method in determining the rate of corrosion applicable to risk based inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed Hairul Hasmoni; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Ab Razak Hamzah

    2004-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem in oil and gas industries, refineries and chemical process plants as the equipment is often exposed to corrosive environments or elevated temperature. Important equipment need to operate safely and reliably to avoid injuries to personnel and the public, and to prevent loss time and cost incurred due to loss of production and shutdown. The paper assess the approach in evaluating the technique of non-destructive testing (NDT) using Ultrasonic Testing (UT) in determining the rate of corrosion and remaining life of equipment applicable to Risk Based Inspection (RBI). Methods in determining the corrosion rate are presented using analytical method. Examples and data from MINT chiller water pipeline are presented to illustrate the application of these methods. (Author)

  14. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  15. Risk-based prioritization of ground water threatening point sources at catchment and regional scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overheu, Niels Døssing; Tuxen, Nina; Flyvbjerg, John

    2014-01-01

    framework has been developed to enable a systematic and transparent risk assessment and prioritization of contaminant point sources, considering the local, catchment, or regional scales (Danish EPA, 2011, 2012). The framework has been tested in several catchments in Denmark with different challenges...... and needs, and two of these are presented. Based on the lessons learned, the Danish EPA has prepared a handbook to guide the user through the steps in a risk-based prioritization (Danish EPA, 2012). It provides guidance on prioritization both in an administratively defined area such as a Danish Region...... of the results are presented using the case studies as examples. The methodology was developed by a broad industry group including the Danish EPA, the Danish Regions, the Danish Nature Agency, the Technical University of Denmark, and consultants — and the framework has been widely accepted by the professional...

  16. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  17. Risk-based ranking of dominant contributors to maritime pollution events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheeler, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report describes a conceptual approach for identifying dominant contributors to risk from maritime shipping of hazardous materials. Maritime transportation accidents are relatively common occurrences compared to more frequently analyzed contributors to public risk. Yet research on maritime safety and pollution incidents has not been guided by a systematic, risk-based approach. Maritime shipping accidents can be analyzed using event trees to group the accidents into 'bins,' or groups, of similar characteristics such as type of cargo, location of accident (e.g., harbor, inland waterway), type of accident (e.g., fire, collision, grounding), and size of release. The importance of specific types of events to each accident bin can be quantified. Then the overall importance of accident events to risk can be estimated by weighting the events' individual bin importance measures by the risk associated with each accident bin. 4 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF RISK-BASED AND TECHNOLOGY-INDEPENDENT SAFETY CRITERIA FOR GENERATION IV SYSTEMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William E. Kastenberg; Edward Blandford; Lance Kim

    2009-03-31

    This project has developed quantitative safety goals for Generation IV (Gen IV) nuclear energy systems. These safety goals are risk based and technology independent. The foundations for a new approach to risk analysis has been developed, along with a new operational definition of risk. This project has furthered the current state-of-the-art by developing quantitative safety goals for both Gen IV reactors and for the overall Gen IV nuclear fuel cycle. The risk analysis approach developed will quantify performance measures, characterize uncertainty, and address a more comprehensive view of safety as it relates to the overall system. Appropriate safety criteria are necessary to manage risk in a prudent and cost-effective manner. This study is also important for government agencies responsible for managing, reviewing, and for approving advanced reactor systems because they are charged with assuring the health and safety of the public.

  19. Issues and approaches in risk-based aging analyses of passive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uryasev, S.P.; Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    In previous NRC-sponsored work a general methodology was developed to quantify the risk contributions from aging components at nuclear plants. The methodology allowed Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) to be modified to incorporate the age-dependent component failure rates and also aging maintenance models to evaluate and prioritize the aging contributions from active components using the linear aging failure rate model and empirical components aging rates. In the present paper, this methodology is extended to passive components (for example, the pipes, heat exchangers, and the vessel). The analyses of passive components bring in issues different from active components. Here, we specifically focus on three aspects that need to be addressed in risk-based aging prioritization of passive components

  20. Accident Management ampersand Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kula, K.R.; Taylor, R.P. Jr.; Ashbaugh, S.G.

    1995-01-01

    A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities

  1. Risk-based management of remaining life of power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roos, E.; Jovanovic, A.S.; Maile, K.; Auerkari, P.

    1999-01-01

    The paper describes application of different modules of the MPA-System ALIAS in risk-based management of remaining life of power plant components. The system allows comprehensive coverage of all aspects of the remaining life management, including also the risk analysis and risk management. In addition, thanks to the modular character of the system it is also possible to implement new methods: In the case described here, a new (probabilistic) method for determination of the next inspection time for the components exposed to creep loading has been developed and implemented in the system. Practical application of the method has shown (a) that the mean values obtained by the method fall into the range of results obtained by other methods (based on expert knowledge), and (b) that it is possible to quantify the probability of aberration from the mean values. This in turn allows quantifying the additional risks linked to e.g. prolonging of inspection intervals. (orig.) [de

  2. Risk-based Inspection Guide for the Susquehanna Station HPCI system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, R.; Higgins, J.; Gunther, W.; Shier, W.

    1992-11-01

    The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A system Risk-based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station (SSES) which is operated by Pennsylvania Power ampersand Light (PP ampersand L). Included in this S-RIG is a discussion of the role of HPCI in mitigating accidents and a presentation of PRA-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG uses industry operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples, to augment the basic PRA failure modes. It is designed to be used as a reference for both routine inspections and the evaluation of the significance of component failures

  3. Update on the EPRI power generation risk-based inservice inspection pilot plant studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosselin, S.R.

    1997-01-01

    The scope for ASME Section XI ISI programs is largely based on deterministic results contained in design stress reports. These reports are normally very conservative and may not be an accurate representation of failure potential. Service experience has shown that failures are due to either corrosion or fatigue and typically occur in areas not included in the plant's ISI program. Consequently, nuclear plants are devoting significant resources to inspection programs that provide minimum benefit. As an alternative, significant industry attention has been devoted to the application of risked-based selection criteria in order to determine the scope of inservice inspection (ISI) programs at nuclear power plants. Preliminary EPRI studies indicate that the application of these techniques will allow operating nuclear plants to reduce the examination scope of current ISI programs by as much as 60 to 80%, significantly reduce costs, and continue to maintain high nuclear plant safety standards

  4. Risk-Based Predictive Maintenance for Safety-Critical Systems by Using Probabilistic Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based maintenance (RBM aims to improve maintenance planning and decision making by reducing the probability and consequences of failure of equipment. A new predictive maintenance strategy that integrates dynamic evolution model and risk assessment is proposed which can be used to calculate the optimal maintenance time with minimal cost and safety constraints. The dynamic evolution model provides qualified risks by using probabilistic inference with bucket elimination and gives the prospective degradation trend of a complex system. Based on the degradation trend, an optimal maintenance time can be determined by minimizing the expected maintenance cost per time unit. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated and demonstrated by a collision accident of high-speed trains with obstacles in the presence of safety and cost constrains.

  5. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Planning for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (O&M) are large contributors to the cost of energy for offshore wind turbines. Optimal planning of O&M should include use of inspections and monitoring results to make decisions that minimize the expected costs through the lifetime of the structures. For offshore...... structures it is especially important because of the dependence on weather windows for inspections and repairs to be possible. A model has been developed to estimate the expected costs to corrective and condition based maintenance for a wind turbine with a single component. The deterioration of the component...... is simulated, and the expected costs are found for different strategies. An application example shows that condition based maintenance has the potential of reducing the costs, and a risk based approach can be used to find the optimal strategy for O&M. Further the influence of failure rate and damage parameters...

  6. DEVELOPMENT OF RISK-BASED AND TECHNOLOGY-INDEPENDENT SAFETY CRITERIA FOR GENERATION IV SYSTEMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, William E.; Blandford, Edward; Kim, Lance

    2009-01-01

    This project has developed quantitative safety goals for Generation IV (Gen IV) nuclear energy systems. These safety goals are risk based and technology independent. The foundations for a new approach to risk analysis has been developed, along with a new operational definition of risk. This project has furthered the current state-of-the-art by developing quantitative safety goals for both Gen IV reactors and for the overall Gen IV nuclear fuel cycle. The risk analysis approach developed will quantify performance measures, characterize uncertainty, and address a more comprehensive view of safety as it relates to the overall system. Appropriate safety criteria are necessary to manage risk in a prudent and cost-effective manner. This study is also important for government agencies responsible for managing, reviewing, and for approving advanced reactor systems because they are charged with assuring the health and safety of the public

  7. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth

    2018-01-01

    Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...

  8. Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules......In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures......, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can...

  9. Framework for Risk-based Planning of Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    , and to sequential optimal decision making on planning of OM taking into account new information. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion, wear and erosion are associated with significant uncertainty. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions, especially......For offshore wind turbines, costs to operation and maintenance (OM) are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based life cycle approach for optimal planning of OM. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory, and can be used both to overall, initial planning of OM...... in connection with condition-based maintenance. The approach can be used for gearboxes, generators, fatigue cracks, corrosion, etc. This paper also describes how probabilistic indicators can be used to quantify indirect information about the damage state for critical components, e.g. gearboxes....

  10. Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

    2017-11-01

    Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  11. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford site cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.

    1996-01-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within currently expected annual funding profiles. These strategies were developed because (1) the U.S. Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and risk-reduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars, or less, annually. This analysis produced a framework and a set of tools that are available for dealing with changes to anticipated funding levels, changes in risk cleanup standards, and Congressional initiatives and inquiries. The tools include land-supply curves, cost profiles, risk profiles, mortgage reduction curves, and minimum operations costs. This paper describes the methodology used to develop mortgage-based, risk-based, and land-based cleanup strategies and how those strategies differ in terms of the work to be performed, its sequence, and the resulting end states

  12. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  13. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvehag, Karin

    2011-07-01

    Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while under investments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, over investments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socio economically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers. This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socio economically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed riskbased methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk

  14. Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ester Vilaprinyo

    Full Text Available The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1 To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2 To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial, the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years and the ending ages (69 and 74 years in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

  15. A pilot application of risk-based methods to establish in-service inspection priorities for nuclear components at Surry Unit 1 Nuclear Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.; Gore, B.; Simonen, F.; Doctor, S.

    1994-08-01

    As part of the Nondestructive Evaluation Reliability Program sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory is developing a method that uses risk-based approaches to establish in-service inspection plans for nuclear power plant components. This method uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) results and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FEMA) techniques to identify and prioritize the most risk-important systems and components for inspection. The Surry Nuclear Power Station Unit 1 was selected for pilot applications of this method. The specific systems addressed in this report are the reactor pressure vessel, the reactor coolant, the low-pressure injection, and the auxiliary feedwater. The results provide a risk-based ranking of components within these systems and relate the target risk to target failure probability values for individual components. These results will be used to guide the development of improved inspection plans for nuclear power plants. To develop inspection plans, the acceptable level of risk from structural failure for important systems and components will be apportioned as a small fraction (i.e., 5%) of the total PRA-estimated risk for core damage. This process will determine target (acceptable) risk and target failure probability values for individual components. Inspection requirements will be set at levels to assure that acceptable failure probabilistics are maintained

  16. Adolescente autor de ato infracional: falência do pai ou falência da pátria?

    OpenAIRE

    Mattos, Luciana

    2008-01-01

    O presente trabalho objetiva realizar uma análise por meio de relatórios, laudos e avaliações elaborados por psicólogos e por assistentes sociais do Poder Judiciário, enfatizando-se as considerações acerca da dinâmica familiar, notadamente expressões como família desorganizada , fragilidade do pai e similares, as quais aparecem nesses documentos, em diálogo com a questão social. A construção desta pesquisa deu-se a partir do trabalho desenvolvido na qualidade de psicóloga...

  17. Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

    2016-10-01

    This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Probabilistic safety analysis and risk-based inspection of nuclear research reactors: state-of-the-art and implementation proposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, Raíssa O.; Vasceoncelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington A.; Silva Júnior, Silvério F.; Raso, Amanda L.; Mesquita, Amir Z., E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: silvasf@cdtn.br, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    Industrial facilities systems deteriorate over time during operation, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) classifies such systems by their risk information with the purpose of prioritizing inspection efforts. RBI can reduce inspection activities, resulting in lower risk levels, and maintaining reliability and safety in acceptable levels. Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) is a RBI approach used in nuclear industry. RI-ISI uses outcomes from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) to plan In-Service Inspections (ISI). Despite nuclear research reactors are simpler and have lower risks than power reactors, the application of PSA to them may be useful for safety improvements once they are more flexible, provide easier access to its core, and allow changes in fuel configurations in case of experimental tests. Ageing management of structures, systems and components important to safety of a nuclear research reactor throughout its lifetime is also required to assure continued adequacy of safety levels, reliable operation, and compliance with operational limits and conditions. This includes periodic review of ISI programs in which monitoring of material deterioration and aging effects are considered, and that can be supported by the RBI approach. A review of state-of-the-art of PSA and RBI applications to nuclear reactors is presented in this work. Advantages to apply these methodologies are also analyzed. PSA and RBI implementation proposal applied to nuclear research reactors is also presented, as well as its application to a TRIGA research nuclear reactor using computer codes developed by ReliaSoft® Corporation. (author)

  19. Probabilistic safety analysis and risk-based inspection of nuclear research reactors: state-of-the-art and implementation proposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, Raíssa O.; Vasceoncelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington A.; Silva Júnior, Silvério F.; Raso, Amanda L.; Mesquita, Amir Z.

    2017-01-01

    Industrial facilities systems deteriorate over time during operation, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) classifies such systems by their risk information with the purpose of prioritizing inspection efforts. RBI can reduce inspection activities, resulting in lower risk levels, and maintaining reliability and safety in acceptable levels. Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) is a RBI approach used in nuclear industry. RI-ISI uses outcomes from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) to plan In-Service Inspections (ISI). Despite nuclear research reactors are simpler and have lower risks than power reactors, the application of PSA to them may be useful for safety improvements once they are more flexible, provide easier access to its core, and allow changes in fuel configurations in case of experimental tests. Ageing management of structures, systems and components important to safety of a nuclear research reactor throughout its lifetime is also required to assure continued adequacy of safety levels, reliable operation, and compliance with operational limits and conditions. This includes periodic review of ISI programs in which monitoring of material deterioration and aging effects are considered, and that can be supported by the RBI approach. A review of state-of-the-art of PSA and RBI applications to nuclear reactors is presented in this work. Advantages to apply these methodologies are also analyzed. PSA and RBI implementation proposal applied to nuclear research reactors is also presented, as well as its application to a TRIGA research nuclear reactor using computer codes developed by ReliaSoft® Corporation. (author)

  20. MO-E-9A-01: Risk Based Quality Management: TG100 In Action

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, M [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Palta, J [Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA (United States); Dunscombe, P [Tom Baker Cancer Centre, Calgary, AB (Canada); Thomadsen, B [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2014-06-15

    One of the goals of quality management in radiation therapy is to gain high confidence that patients will receive the prescribed treatment correctly. To accomplish these goals professional societies such as the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) has published many quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC), and quality management (QM) guidance documents. In general, the recommendations provided in these documents have emphasized on performing device-specific QA at the expense of process flow and protection of the patient against catastrophic errors. Analyses of radiation therapy incidents find that they are most often caused by flaws in the overall therapy process, from initial consult through final treatment, than by isolated hardware or computer failures detectable by traditional physics QA. This challenge is shared by many intrinsically hazardous industries. Risk assessment tools and analysis techniques have been developed to define, identify, and eliminate known and/or potential failures, problems, or errors, from a system, process and/or service before they reach the customer. These include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and establishment of a quality management program that best avoids the faults and risks that have been identified in the overall process. These tools can be easily adapted to radiation therapy practices because of their simplicity and effectiveness to provide efficient ways to enhance the safety and quality of treatment processes. Task group 100 (TG100) of AAPM has developed a risk-based quality management program that uses these tools. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based QM program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process. Learn how to perform a FMEA analysis for a given process. Learn what

  1. Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.

    2012-01-01

    Risk based assessment (RBA) has become the best industry practice for management of pressure equipment reliability. Application of RBA programs significantly reduces risk and gives opportunity to optimize inspection programs and produce long term financial benefits. Quest Integrity Group have implemented risk based inspection programs n a variety of industries including ammonia, methanol, geothermal power, :combined cycle power, gas turbines, gas production facilities and refineries. This paper outlines the semi quantitative RBA procedures that have been followed and lists some of the specific technical outcomes. Advanced inspection and life assessment methods used in support of RBI in refineries ire discussed. Piping in refineries is a key risk issue and it is not uncommon for piping failures to result in major incidents. Specific inspection programs are available to monitor differing damage processes such as flow assisted corrosion, hydrogen damage and corrosion under insulation. During assessment it s often found that numerous pipes have never been inspected especially underground smaller diameter pipes which are frequently considered to be un-piggable using conventional technologies and difficult to inspect. Advanced high accuracy flexible miniaturized ultrasonic intelligent pigging combined with fitness for service assessment such as Invista TM is recommended for inspection of critical pipelines which previously have been un-piggable. The processing of crude oil from a range of sources can result in significant variations in the levels of contaminants such as chlorides and sulfides. Major failures have occurred as a result of very rapid increases in corrosion rates in hydrotreating processes due to rapid changes in chemistry. The outcome of the assessment of plants that have potentially high and variable levels of contaminants often results in a review the process chemistry, how it is monitored and development of a detailed corrosion monitoring program. Fired

  2. MO-E-9A-01: Risk Based Quality Management: TG100 In Action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huq, M; Palta, J; Dunscombe, P; Thomadsen, B

    2014-01-01

    One of the goals of quality management in radiation therapy is to gain high confidence that patients will receive the prescribed treatment correctly. To accomplish these goals professional societies such as the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) has published many quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC), and quality management (QM) guidance documents. In general, the recommendations provided in these documents have emphasized on performing device-specific QA at the expense of process flow and protection of the patient against catastrophic errors. Analyses of radiation therapy incidents find that they are most often caused by flaws in the overall therapy process, from initial consult through final treatment, than by isolated hardware or computer failures detectable by traditional physics QA. This challenge is shared by many intrinsically hazardous industries. Risk assessment tools and analysis techniques have been developed to define, identify, and eliminate known and/or potential failures, problems, or errors, from a system, process and/or service before they reach the customer. These include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and establishment of a quality management program that best avoids the faults and risks that have been identified in the overall process. These tools can be easily adapted to radiation therapy practices because of their simplicity and effectiveness to provide efficient ways to enhance the safety and quality of treatment processes. Task group 100 (TG100) of AAPM has developed a risk-based quality management program that uses these tools. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based QM program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process. Learn how to perform a FMEA analysis for a given process. Learn what

  3. Application of TRiMiCri for the evaluation of risk based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter on broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seliwiorstow, Tomasz; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Zutter, Lieven

    2016-01-01

    A potential solution for the reduction of consumer exposure to Campylobacter is establishing a microbiological criterion (MC) for Campylobacter on broiler meat. In the present study the freely available software tool TRiMiCri was applied to evaluate risk-based microbiological criteria by two appr...... of microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in the EU is discussed. TRiMiCri provides user friendly software to evaluate the available data and can help risk managers in establishing risk based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat.......A potential solution for the reduction of consumer exposure to Campylobacter is establishing a microbiological criterion (MC) for Campylobacter on broiler meat. In the present study the freely available software tool TRiMiCri was applied to evaluate risk-based microbiological criteria by two...

  4. The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

    2007-01-01

    industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

  5. Application of the risk-based strategy to the Hanford tank waste organic-nitrate safety issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, V.L.; Colson, S.D.; Ferryman, T.; Gephart, R.E.; Heasler, P.; Scheele, R.D.

    1997-12-01

    This report describes the results from application of the Risk-Based Decision Management Approach for Justifying Characterization of Hanford Tank Waste to the organic-nitrate safety issue in Hanford single-shell tanks (SSTs). Existing chemical and physical models were used, taking advantage of the most current (mid-1997) sampling and analysis data. The purpose of this study is to make specific recommendations for planning characterization to help ensure the safety of each SST as it relates to the organic-nitrate safety issue. An additional objective is to demonstrate the viability of the Risk-Based Strategy for addressing Hanford tank waste safety issues

  6. Application of the risk-based strategy to the Hanford tank waste organic-nitrate safety issue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, V.L.; Colson, S.D.; Ferryman, T.; Gephart, R.E.; Heasler, P.; Scheele, R.D.

    1997-12-01

    This report describes the results from application of the Risk-Based Decision Management Approach for Justifying Characterization of Hanford Tank Waste to the organic-nitrate safety issue in Hanford single-shell tanks (SSTs). Existing chemical and physical models were used, taking advantage of the most current (mid-1997) sampling and analysis data. The purpose of this study is to make specific recommendations for planning characterization to help ensure the safety of each SST as it relates to the organic-nitrate safety issue. An additional objective is to demonstrate the viability of the Risk-Based Strategy for addressing Hanford tank waste safety issues.

  7. 12 CFR 567.3 - Individual minimum capital requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... association's directors, officers, and senior management as well as the internal control and internal audit... associations; has management deficiencies, including failure to adequately monitor and control financial and... capital requirement for a savings association that varies from the risk-based capital requirement, the...

  8. A Risk-Based Interval Two-Stage Programming Model for Agricultural System Management under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonpoint source (NPS pollution caused by agricultural activities is main reason that water quality in watershed becomes worse, even leading to deterioration. Moreover, pollution control is accompanied with revenue’s fall for agricultural system. How to design and generate a cost-effective and environmentally friendly agricultural production pattern is a critical issue for local managers. In this study, a risk-based interval two-stage programming model (RBITSP was developed. Compared to general ITSP model, significant contribution made by RBITSP model was that it emphasized importance of financial risk under various probabilistic levels, rather than only being concentrated on expected economic benefit, where risk is expressed as the probability of not meeting target profit under each individual scenario realization. This way effectively avoided solutions’ inaccuracy caused by traditional expected objective function and generated a variety of solutions through adjusting weight coefficients, which reflected trade-off between system economy and reliability. A case study of agricultural production management with the Tai Lake watershed was used to demonstrate superiority of proposed model. Obtained results could be a base for designing land-structure adjustment patterns and farmland retirement schemes and realizing balance of system benefit, system-failure risk, and water-body protection.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Risk-based equipment removal guide for on-line maintenance at PSE ampersand G

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoll, A.; Smith, C.; Pollock, J.

    1995-01-01

    On-line maintenance plays an important role in achieving safe and reliable power generation in a nuclear power plant. However, maintenance, if not properly planned and performed, may also be an important contributor to plant risk. Therefore, plant-specific procedures are needed for equipment removal from service to enhance the benefits of on-line maintenance and minimize the risks involved. The problem is to identify and implement the most effective on-line maintenance policy in the form of a proceduralized guide to assure plant safety under various operation and maintenance constraints. This paper presents a methodology to develop plant-specific on-line maintenance strategies and acceptance criteria using a multivariate safety approach based on risk assessment. Based on plant-specific data as modeled in the individual plant evaluation (IPE) and the updated probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the risk-based methodology is currently being applied to the development of proceduralized equipment removal guides at Hope Creek and Salem units 1 and 2 of Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE ampersand G)

  11. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the North Anna nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nickolaus, J.R.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.

    1992-10-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. North Anna was selected as a plant for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by the NRC inspectors in preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk important components at the North Anna plant

  12. A RISK BASED METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN TRADITIONALLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Herrera

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the CO2 reduction targets set by the Scottish government, it will be necessary to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings. Within the total Scottish building stock, historic and traditionally constructed buildings are an important proportion, in the order of 19 % (Curtis, 2010, and represent cultural, emotional and identity values that should be protected. However, retrofit interventions could be a complex operation because of the several aspects that are involved in the hygrothermal performance of traditional buildings. Moreover, all these factors interact with each other and therefore need to be analysed as a whole. Upgrading the envelope of traditional buildings may produce severe changes to the moisture migration leading to superficial or interstitial condensation and thus fabric decay and mould growth. Retrofit projects carried out in the past have failed because of the misunderstanding, or the lack of expert prediction, of the potential consequences associated to the envelope's alteration. The evaluation of potential risks, prior to any alteration on building's physics in order to improve its energy efficiency, is critical to avoid future damage on the wall's performance or occupants' health and well being. The aim of this PhD research project is to point out the most critical aspects related to the energy efficiency improvement of traditional buildings and to develop a risk based methodology that helps owners and practitioners during the decision making process.

  13. Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zueng-Sang Chen

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1 food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2 a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3 risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4 soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan.

  14. A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Salinas-Rodriguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional design standards for urban drainage systems are not set to deal with extreme rainfall events. As these events are becoming more frequent, there is room for proposing new planning approaches and standards that are flexible enough to cope with a wide range of rainfall events. In this paper, a semi risk-based approach is presented as a simple and practical way for the analysis and management of rainfall flooding at the precinct scale. This approach uses various rainfall events as input parameters for the analysis of the flood hazard and impacts, and categorises the flood risk in different levels, ranging from very low to very high risk. When visualised on a map, the insight into the risk levels across the precinct will enable engineers and spatial planners to identify and prioritise interventions to manage the flood risk. The approach is demonstrated for a sewer district in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using a one-dimensional (1D/two-dimensional (2D flood model. The risk level of this area is classified as being predominantly very low or low, with a couple of locations with high and very high risk. For these locations interventions, such as disconnection and lowering street profiles, have been proposed and analysed with the 1D/2D flood model. The interventions were shown to be effective in reducing the risk levels from very high/high risk to medium/low risk.

  15. A strategy for the risk-based inspection of pressure safety valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chien, C.-H.; Chen, C.-H.; Chao, Y.J.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of a pressure safety valve (PSV) is to protect the life and safety of pressure vessels in a pressurized system. If a weakened PSV fails to function properly, a catastrophic event might occur if no other protective means are provided. By utilizing the as-received test data and statistical analysis of the aging conditions of PSVs in lubricant process units, a risk-based inspection (RBI) system was developed in this study. First of all, the characteristics of PSV were discussed from the practical viewpoint of engineering inspection and maintenance. The as-received test data, which shows obvious PSV damage, will be separated from the data used in the following statistical analysis. Then, the relationship between the aging conditions and the corresponding PSV parameters was analyzed by using the statistical technique-analysis of variance (ANOVA). Finally, a strategy for semi-quantitative RBI is proposed. Also, a definitive estimated inspection interval for every PSV is suggested. The outcome indicated most of the risks result from a few PSVs, for which the corresponding inspection intervals will be shorter than the 2 years in accordance with relative standards and local government regulations

  16. Emerging contaminants in the environment: Risk-based analysis for better management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, Ravi; Arias Espana, Victor Andres; Liu, Yanju; Jit, Joytishna

    2016-07-01

    Emerging contaminants (ECs) are chemicals of a synthetic origin or deriving from a natural source that has recently been discovered and for which environmental or public health risks are yet to be established. This is due to limited available information on their interaction and toxicological impacts on receptors. Several types of ECs exist such as antibiotics, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, effluents, certain naturally occurring contaminants and more recently nanomaterials. ECs may derive from a known source, for example released directly to the aquatic environment from direct discharges such as those from wastewater treatment plants. Although in most instances the direct source cannot be identified, ECs have been detected in virtually every country's natural environment and as a consequence they represent a global problem. There is very limited information on the fate and transport of ECs in the environment and their toxicological impact. This lack of information can be attributed to limited financial resources and the lack of analytical techniques for detecting their effects on ecosystems and human health on their own or as mixture. We do not know how ECs interact with each other or various contaminants. This paper presents an overview of existing knowledge on ECs, their fate and transport and a risk-based analysis for ECs management and complementary strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk-based decision making: The East Fork Poplar Creek case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, D.R.J.; Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W.; Parkhurst, B.R.; Teed, R.S.

    1999-12-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment revealed that methylmercury released from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 weapons facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, poses moderate risks to mink and kingfishers residing near the receiving waters of East Fork Poplar Creek. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) released from this facility pose severe risks to mink but little risk to kingfishers. The objective of this study was to use a risk-based decision-making approach to select remedial cleanup levels for each of these contaminants. The authors conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate total daily intakes of each contaminant by mink (mercury and PCBs) and kingfishers (PCBs only) for a range of exposure-reduction scenarios. The resulting exposure distributions were then integrated with their respective dose-response curves to estimate postremediation risks. The results indicated that total mercury levels in surface water would need to be reduced from current levels (mean = 0.225 {micro}g/L) to 0.03 to 0.05 {micro}g/L to reduce risks to very low levels (<5% probability of {ge}20% mortality) for both mink and kingfishers. If interested parties define acceptable risk as, for example, a 20% probability of {gt} 10% mortality, then mercury levels would need to be reduced to 0.14 {micro}g/L. The PCBs analysis indicated that reducing water-borne exposures would produce only a modest reduction in risk to mink because much of the current exposure is through terrestrial exposure pathways.

  18. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bumgardner, J.D.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.; Sloan, J.A.

    1993-02-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. Palo Verde was selected as one of a series of plants for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the Palo Verde plants

  19. Risk based In Vitro Performance Assessment of Extended Release Abuse Deterrent Formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaoming; Gupta, Abhay; Al-Ghabeish, Manar; Calderon, Silvia N.; Khan, Mansoor A.

    2016-01-01

    High strength extended release opioid products, which are indispensable tools in the management of pain, are associated with serious risks of unintentional and potentially fatal overdose, as well as of misuse and abuse that might lead to addiction. The issue of drug abuse becomes increasingly prominent when the dosage forms can be readily manipulated to release a high amount of opioid or to extract the drug in certain products or solvents. One approach to deter opioid drug abuse is by providing novel abuse deterrent formulations (ADF), with properties that may be viewed as barriers to abuse of the product. However, unlike regular extended release formulations, assessment of ADF technologies are challenging, in part due to the great variety of formulation designs available to achieve deterrence of abuse by oral, parenteral, nasal and respiratory routes. With limited prior history or literature information, and lack of compendial standards, evaluation and regulatory approval of these novel drug products become increasingly difficult. The present article describes a risk-based standardized in-vitro approach that can be utilized in general evaluation of abuse deterrent features for all ADF products. PMID:26784976

  20. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  1. A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angus J Ferraro

    Full Text Available Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

  2. Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Emma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

  3. An inventory and risk-based prioritization of Steep Creek Fans in Alberta, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holm Kris

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In June 2013, heavy rainfall caused flooding on most rivers in the province of Alberta, Canada, producing one of Canada’s most expensive natural disasters with about $6 billion (CDN in damage. Flooding inundated several municipalities including downtown Calgary, the fourth-largest city in Canada. Debris flows and debris floods caused extensive highway closures and damages to development on alluvial fans. Following these events, the Government of Alberta requested an inventory of all fans intersecting municipal development, major roads and highways in Alberta. Such fans may be subject to debris flow, debris flood (mud flows, and/or flood hazards. The study area spans the entirety of the Alberta Rocky Mountains, approximately 51,000 km2 (7% of Alberta. We characterize 710 fans in terms of hazard level and presence and types of elements at risk. We statistically analyse watershed attributes to predict the dominant fan hydrogeomorphic process types. All fans under provincial jurisdiction are assigned priority ratings based on hazard levels and the presence and value of elements at risk. The prioritization is risk-based as it considers both hazards and potential consequences. Of the fans prioritized, 13% intersected parcels containing land and residential developments with an assessed value of $2.4 billion (CDN, and the remainder were crossed by roads, pipelines or transmission lines. We present the study results on an interactive, searchable web application that can support ongoing hazard and risk assessments and risk reduction planning.

  4. Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

    2010-10-01

    Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

  5. A Risk-Based Approach for Asset Allocation with A Defaultable Share

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Shen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel risk-based approach for an optimal asset allocation problem with default risk, where a money market account, an ordinary share and a defaultable security are investment opportunities in a general non-Markovian economy incorporating random market parameters. The objective of an investor is to select an optimal mix of these securities such that a risk metric of an investment portfolio is minimized. By adopting a sub-additive convex risk measure, which takes into account interest rate risk, as a measure for risk, the investment problem is discussed mathematically in a form of a two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the investor and the market. A backward stochastic differential equation approach is used to provide a flexible and theoretically sound way to solve the game problem. Closed-form expressions for the optimal strategies of the investor and the market are obtained when the penalty function is a quadratic function and when the risk measure is a sub-additive coherent risk measure. An important case of the general non-Markovian model, namely the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with time delay, is considered. Numerical examples based on simulations for the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with and without time delay are provided to illustrate how the proposed model can be applied in this important case. The proposed model can be implemented using Excel spreadsheets.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the McGuire nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bumgardner, J.D.; Lloyd, R.C.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.

    1994-05-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. McGuire was selected as one of a series of plants for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the McGuire plant

  9. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the South Texas Project nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bumgardner, J.D.; Nickolaus, J.R.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.

    1993-12-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. South Texas Project was selected as a plant for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by the NRC inspectors in preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk important components at the South Texas Project plant

  10. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  11. Risk-based approach for bioremediation of fuel hydrocarbons at a major airport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiedemeier, T.H.; Guest, P.R.; Blicker, B.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a risk-based approach for bioremediation of fuel-hydrocarbon-contaminated soil and ground water at a major airport in Colorado. In situ bioremediation pilot testing, natural attenuation modeling, and full-scale remedial action planning and implementation for soil and ground water contamination has conducted at four airport fuel farms. The sources of fuel contamination were leaking underground storage tanks (USTs) or pipelines transporting Jet A fuel and aviation gasoline. Continuing sources of contamination were present in several small cells of free-phase product and in fuel residuals trapped within the capillary fringe at depths 15 to 20 feet below ground surface. Bioventing pilot tests were conducted to assess the feasibility of using this technology to remediate contaminated soils. The pilot tests included measurement of initial soil gas chemistry at the site, determination of subsurface permeability, and in situ respiration tests to determine fuel biodegradation rates. A product recovery test was also conducted. ES designed and installed four full-scale bioventing systems to remediate the long-term sources of continuing fuel contamination. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were detected in ground water at concentrations slightly above regulatory guidelines

  12. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.; Moffitt, N.E.; Bumgardner, J.D.

    1992-10-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. The information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. Maine Yankee was selected as one of a series of plants for study. ne product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the Maine Yankee plant

  13. Risk-Based Maintenance Assessment in the Manufacturing Industry: Minimisation of Suboptimal Prioritisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratnayake R.M. Chandima

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing firms continuously strive to increase the efficiency and effectiveness in the maintenance management processes. Focus is placed on eliminating the unexpected failures which cause unnecessary costs and the production losses. Risk-based maintenance (RBM strategies enable to address the above through the identification of probability and consequences of potential failures whilst providing a way for prioritisation of maintenance actions based on the risk of possible failures. Such prioritisations enable to identify the optimal maintenance strategy, intervals of maintenance tasks, and optimal level of spare parts inventory. However, the risk assessment activities are performed with the support of a risk matrix. Suboptimal classifications and/or prioritisations arise due to the inherent nature of the risk matrix. This is caused by the fact that there are no means to incorporate actual circumstances at the boundary of the input ranges or at the levels of linguistic data and risk categories. In this paper, a risk matrix is first developed in collaboration with one of the manufacturing firms in Poland. Then, it illustrates the use of fuzzy logic for minimisation of suboptimal prioritisation and/or classifications using a fuzzy inference system (FIS together with illustrative membership functions and a rule base. Finally, an illustrative risk assessment is also demonstrated to illustrate the methodology.

  14. Corrosion Assessment by Using Risk-Based Inspection Method for Petrochemical Plant - Practical Experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Song Chun; Song, Ki Hun

    2009-01-01

    Corrosion assessment has a number of uses but the use considered here is as a precursor to Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) planning. Systematic methods consisting of technical modules of RBI program were used to assess the effect of specific corrosion mechanism on the probability of failure in equipment of petrochemical plants. Especially in part of the damage and corrosion assessment, screening step involved evaluating the combinations of process conditions and construction materials for each equipment item in order to determine which damage mechanisms are potentially active. For general internal corrosion, either API 510 or API 570 was applied as the damage rate in the calculation to determine the remaining life and inspection frequency. In some cases, a measured rate of corrosion may not be available. The technical modules of RBI program employ default values for corrosion, typically derived from published data or from experience with similar processes, for use until inspection results are available. This paper describes the case study of corrosion and damage assessment by using RBI methodology in petrochemical plant. Specifically, this paper reports the methodology and the results of its application to the petrochemical units using the KGS-RBI TM program, developed by the Korea Gas Safety Corporation to suit Korean situation in conformity with API 581 Codes

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Hung-Yu; Hseu, Zeng-Yei; Chen, Ting-Chien; Chen, Bo-Ching; Guo, Horng-Yuh; Chen, Zueng-Sang

    2010-01-01

    Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act) uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs) have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1) food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2) a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3) risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4) soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan. PMID:21139851

  17. A Risk-Based Framework for Assessing the Effectiveness of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Angus J.; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.; Highwood, Eleanor J.

    2014-01-01

    Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product. PMID:24533155

  18. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  19. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Byron and Braidwood nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.

    1991-07-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. Byron and Braidwood were selected for the fourth study in this program. The produce of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plants and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the Byron/Braidwood plants. 23 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the H. B. Robinson nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffitt, N.E.; Lloyd, R.C.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.; Garner, L.W.

    1993-08-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. H. B. Robinson was selected as one of a series of plants for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the H. B. Robinson plant

  1. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Point Beach nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lloyd, R.C.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.; Vehec, T.A.

    1993-02-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. Point Beach was selected as one of a series of plants for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRS. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the Point Beach plant

  2. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Ginna Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pugh, R.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.; Moffitt, N.E.

    1991-09-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. Ginna was selected as the eighth plant for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at the Ginna plant. 23 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  3. Routine culture-based screening versus risk-based management for the prevention of early-onset group B streptococcus disease in the neonate: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, Ella; Davis, Deborah

    2015-04-17

    Early-onset group B streptococcus disease, recognized as the most common cause of early onset neonatal sepsis in developed countries, is transmitted vertically from the group B streptococcus carrier mother to the neonate in the peripartum. Accordingly, early-onset group B streptococcus disease is prevented by halting the transmission of the microorganism from the mother to the infant. Two main methods, routine culture-based screening and risk-based management, may be used in the identification of mothers requiring intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis in labor. While there are advantages and disadvantages to each, there is limited high level evidence available as to which method is superior. To identify the effectiveness of risk-based management versus routine culture-based screening in the prevention of early-onset group B streptococcus disease in the neonate. This review considered studies which treated pregnant women with intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis following risk- and culture-based protocols for the prevention of early-onset group B streptococcus disease in the neonate. Types of intervention: This review considered studies that evaluated risk-based management against routine culture-based screening for the prevention of early-onset group B streptococcus disease in the neonate. Types of studies: This review looked for highest evidence available which in this case consisted of one quasi experimental study and eight comparative cohort studies with historical or concurrent control groups. Types of outcomes: Incidence of early-onset group B streptococcus disease in neonates as measured by positive group B streptococcus culture from an otherwise sterile site. Secondary outcomes include neonatal death due to group B streptococcus sepsis and percentage of women who received intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis. A multi-step search strategy was used to find studies which were limited to the English language and published between January 2000 and June 2013. The quality

  4. 76 FR 37620 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-28

    ... advanced approaches rules, several commenters, mostly representing the largest U.S. financial institutions... principles for preparing financial statements instead of the statutory accounting principles applicable to...-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework--Basel II; Establishment of a Risk-Based...

  5. Effectiveness of a risk-based visitor-prioritizing system at a sexually transmitted infection outpatient clinic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijman, Titia L. J.; van der Bij, Akke K.; de Vries, Henry J. C.; van Leent, Edwin J. M.; Thiesbrummel, Harold F. J.; Fennema, Han S. A.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study was to study the efficacy/effectiveness of a risk-based visitor-prioritizing system at a sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic aimed to improve screening capacity by providing tailored service. In April 2004, a prioritizing system was implemented that classifies

  6. Effectiveness of a risk-based visitor-prioritizing system at a sexually transmitted infection outpatient clinic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijman, T.L.J.; van der Bij, A.K.; de Vries, H.J.C.; van Leent, E.J.M.; Thiesbrummel, H.F.J.; Fennema, H.S.A.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to study the efficacy/effectiveness of a risk-based visitor-prioritizing system at a sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic aimed to improve screening capacity by providing tailored service. Study Design: In April 2004, a prioritizing system was

  7. 78 FR 11611 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-19

    ... related to the proposed rule on ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based... . All comments should be identified with the title ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard... rulemaking to modernize the regulation for ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice In Manufacturing, Packing...

  8. 78 FR 24691 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-26

    ... comments should be identified with the title ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and..., 114, 117, 120, 123, 129, 179, and 211 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0920] RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of...

  9. 78 FR 69604 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-20

    ... Federal Register of January 16, 2013 (78 FR 3646), entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and... a proposed rule entitled ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based..., 114, 117, 120, 123, 129, 179, and 211 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0920] RIN 0910-AG36 Current Good...

  10. Nosocomial transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: results from a risk-based assessment of surgical interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Pedro-Cuesta, Jesús; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Rábano, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Evidence of surgical transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) remains debatable in part due to misclassification of exposure levels. In a registry-based case-control study, the authors applied a risk-based classification of surgical interventions to determine the association...

  11. 12 CFR Appendix A to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Risk-Based Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... adjusted for capital purposes in accordance with the instructions to the Consolidated Financial Statements... guidelines apply on a consolidated basis to any bank holding company with consolidated assets of $500 million or more. The risk-based guidelines also apply on a consolidated basis to any bank holding company...

  12. 76 FR 53683 - Draft Guidance for Industry on Oversight of Clinical Investigations: A Risk-Based Approach to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-29

    ... 200N, Rockville, MD 20852-1448; or the Office of Communication, Education and Radiation Programs... describes a modern, risk-based approach to monitoring that focuses on critical study parameters and relies... appropriate, and other forms of information technology. Title: Draft Guidance for Industry: Oversight of...

  13. 76 FR 65165 - Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-20

    ..., this 14th day of October 2011. Kevin Shea, Acting Administrator, Animal and Plant Health Inspection... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2011-0092] Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative Monitoring and...

  14. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  15. EXAMPLE OF A RISK-BASED DISPOSAL APPROVAL: SOLIDIFICATION OF HANFORD SITE TRANSURANIC (TRU) WASTE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    PRIGNANO AL

    2007-01-01

    The Hanford Site requested, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 10 approved, a Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976 (TSCA) risk-based disposal approval (RBDA) for solidifying approximately four cubic meters of waste from a specific area of one of the K East Basin: the North Loadout Pit (NLOP). The NLOP waste is a highly radioactive sludge that contained polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) regulated under TSCA. The prescribed disposal method for liquid PCB waste under TSCA regulations is either thermal treatment or decontamination. Due to the radioactive nature of the waste, however, neither thermal treatment nor decontamination was a viable option. As a result, the proposed treatment consisted of solidifying the material to comply with waste acceptance criteria at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico, or possibly the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility at the Hanford Site, depending on the resulting transuranic (TRU) content of the stabilized waste. The RBDA evaluated environmental risks associated with potential airborne PCBs. In addition, the RBDA made use of waste management controls already in place at the treatment unit. The treatment unit, the T Plant Complex, is a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA)-permitted facility used for storing and treating radioactive waste. The EPA found that the proposed activities did not pose an unreasonable risk to human health or the environment. Treatment took place from October 26,2005 to June 9,2006, and 332 208-liter (55-gallon) containers of solidified waste were produced. All treated drums assayed to date are TRU and will be disposed at WIPP

  16. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  17. New approaches to infection prevention and control: implementing a risk-based model regionally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wale, Martin; Kibsey, Pamela; Young, Lisa; Dobbyn, Beverly; Archer, Jana

    2016-06-01

    Infectious disease outbreaks result in substantial inconvenience to patients and disruption of clinical activity. Between 1 April 2008 and 31 March 2009, the Vancouver Island Health Authority (Island Health) declared 16 outbreaks of Vancomycin Resistant Enterococci and Clostridium difficile in acute care facilities. As a result, infection prevention and control became one of Island Health's highest priorities. Quality improvement methodology, which promotes a culture of co-production between front-line staff, physicians and Infection Control Practitioners, was used to develop and test a bundle of changes in practices. A series of rapid Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles, specific to decreasing hospital-acquired infections, were undertaken by a community hospital, selected for its size, clinical specialty representation, and enthusiasm amongst staff and physicians for innovation and change. Positive results were incorporated into practice at the test site, and then introduced throughout the rest of the Health Authority. The changes implemented as a result of this study have enabled better control of antibiotic resistant organisms and have minimized disruption to routine activity, as well as saving an estimated $6.5 million per annum. When outbreaks do occur, they are now controlled much more promptly, even in existing older facilities. Through this process, we have changed our approach in Infection Prevention and Control (IPAC) from a rules-based approach to one that is risk-based, focusing attention on identifying and managing high-risk situations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  18. Application of risk-based methods to inservice testing of check valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Closky, N.B.; Balkey, K.R.; McAllister, W.J. [and others

    1996-12-01

    Research efforts have been underway in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) and industry to define appropriate methods for the application of risk-based technology in the development of inservice testing (IST) programs for pumps and valves in nuclear steam supply systems. This paper discusses a pilot application of these methods to the inservice testing of check valves in the emergency core cooling system of Georgia Power`s Vogtle nuclear power station. The results of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) are used to divide the check valves into risk-significant and less-risk-significant groups. This information is reviewed by a plant expert panel along with the consideration of appropriate deterministic insights to finally categorize the check valves into more safety-significant and less safety-significant component groups. All of the more safety-significant check valves are further evaluated in detail using a failure modes and causes analysis (FMCA) to assist in defining effective IST strategies. A template has been designed to evaluate how effective current and emerging tests for check valves are in detecting failures or in finding significant conditions that are precursors to failure for the likely failure causes. This information is then used to design and evaluate appropriate IST strategies that consider both the test method and frequency. A few of the less safety-significant check valves are also evaluated using this process since differences exist in check valve design, function, and operating conditions. Appropriate test strategies are selected for each check valve that has been evaluated based on safety and cost considerations. Test strategies are inferred from this information for the other check valves based on similar check valve conditions. Sensitivity studies are performed using the PSA model to arrive at an overall IST program that maintains or enhances safety at the lowest achievable cost.

  19. Application of CFD dispersion calculation in risk based inspection for release of H2S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pavan K.; Vinod, Gopika; Singh, R.K.; Rao, V.V.S.S.; Vaze, K.K.

    2011-01-01

    In atmospheric dispersion both deterministic and probabilistic approached have been used for addressing design and regulatory concerns. In context of deterministic calculations the amount of pollutants dispersion in the atmosphere is an important area wherein different approaches are followed in development of good analytical model. The analysis based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes offer an opportunity of model development based on first principles of physics and hence such models have an edge over the existing models. In context of probabilistic methods applying risk based inspection (wherein consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed) are becoming popular. Consequence evaluation in a process plant is a crucial task. Often the number of components considered for life management will be too huge. Also consequence evaluation of all the components proved to be laborious task. The present paper is the results of joint collaborative work from deterministic and probabilistic modelling group working in the field of atmospheric dispersion. Even though API 581 has simplified qualitative approach, regulators find the some of the factors, in particular, quantity factor, not suitable for process plants. Often dispersion calculations for heavy gas are done with very simple model which can not take care of density based atmospheric dispersion. This necessitates a new approach with a CFD based technical basis is proposed, so that the range of quantity considered along with factors used can be justified. The present paper is aimed at bringing out some of the distinct merits and demerits of the CFD based models. A brief account of the applications of such CFD codes reported in literature is also presented in the paper. This paper describes the approach devised and demonstrated for the said issue with emphasis of CFD calculations. (author)

  20. A qualitative phenomenological study: Enhanced, risk-based FAA oversight on part 145 maintenance practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Bryan G.

    The purpose of this qualitative phenomenological study was to examine the phenomenon of enhanced, risk-based Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight of Part 145 repair stations that performed aircraft maintenance for Part 121 air carriers between 2007 and 2014 in Oklahoma. Specifically, this research was utilized to explore what operational changes have occurred in the domestic Part 145 repair station industry such as variations in management or hiring practices, training, recordkeeping and technical data, inventory and aircraft parts supply-chain logistics, equipment, and facilities. After interviewing 12 managers from Part 145 repair stations in Oklahoma, six major theme codes emerged from the data: quality of oversight before 2007, quality of oversight after 2007, advantages of oversight, disadvantages of oversight, status quo of oversight, and process improvement . Of those six major theme codes, 17 subthemes appeared from the data that were used to explain the phenomenon of enhanced oversight in the Part 145 repair station industry. Forty-two percent of the participants indicated a weak FAA oversight system that has hindered the continuous process improvement program in their repair stations. Some of them were financially burdened after hiring additional full-time quality assurance inspectors to specifically manage enhanced FAA oversight. Notwithstanding, the participants of the study indicated that the FAA must apply its surveillance on a more standardized and consistent basis. They want to see this standardization in how FAA inspectors interpret regulations and practice the same quality of oversight for all repair stations, particularly those that are repeat violators and fail to comply with federal aviation regulations. They believed that when the FAA enforces standardization on a consistent basis, repair stations can become more efficient and safer in the performance of their scope of work for the U.S. commercial air transportation industry.

  1. Risk-based water resources planning: Coupling water allocation and water quality management under extreme droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Bussi, G.; Hall, J. W.; Whitehead, P. G.

    2016-12-01

    The main aim of water companies is to have a reliable and safe water supply system. To fulfil their duty the water companies have to consider both water quality and quantity issues and challenges. Climate change and population growth will have an impact on water resources both in terms of available water and river water quality. Traditionally, a distinct separation between water quality and abstraction has existed. However, water quality can be a bottleneck in a system since water treatment works can only treat water if it meets certain standards. For instance, high turbidity and large phytoplankton content can increase sharply the cost of treatment or even make river water unfit for human consumption purposes. It is vital for water companies to be able to characterise the quantity and quality of water under extreme weather events and to consider the occurrence of eventual periods when water abstraction has to cease due to water quality constraints. This will give them opportunity to decide on water resource planning and potential changes to reduce the system failure risk. We present a risk-based approach for incorporating extreme events, based on future climate change scenarios from a large ensemble of climate model realisations, into integrated water resources model through combined use of water allocation (WATHNET) and water quality (INCA) models. The annual frequency of imposed restrictions on demand is considered as measure of reliability. We tested our approach on Thames region, in the UK, with 100 extreme events. The results show increase in frequency of imposed restrictions when water quality constraints were considered. This indicates importance of considering water quality issues in drought management plans.

  2. Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

    2012-05-01

    A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

  3. Risk-based prioritization of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khazrajy, Omar S A; Boxall, Alistair B A

    2016-08-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment, raising concerns about their impact on non-target organisms or human health. One region where little is known about the exposure and effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment is Iraq. Due to the high number of pharmaceuticals used by the public health sector in Iraq (hospitals and care centres) and distributed over the counter, there is a need for a systematic approach for identifying substances that should be monitored in the environment in Iraq and assessed in terms of environmental risk. In this study, a risk-based prioritization approach was applied to 99 of the most dispensed pharmaceuticals in three Iraqi cities, Baghdad, Mosul and Basrah. Initially, information on the amounts of pharmaceuticals used in Iraq was obtained. The top used medicines were found to be paracetamol, amoxicillin and metformin with total annual consumption exceeding 1000 tonnes per year. Predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs), derived from ecotoxicological end-points and effects related to the therapeutic mode of action, were then used to rank the pharmaceuticals in terms of risks to different environmental compartments. Active pharmaceutical ingredients used as antibiotics, antidepressants and analgesics were identified as the highest priority in surface water, sediment and the terrestrial environment. Antibiotics were also prioritized according to their susceptibility to kill or inhibit the growth of bacteria or to accelerate the evolution and dissemination of antibiotic-resistant genes in water. Future work will focus on understanding the occurrence, fate and effects of some of highly prioritized substances in the environment.

  4. Guidance on the implementation of a risk based safety performance monitoring system for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewell, R.T.; Kuritzky, A.S.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1997-05-01

    The principal objective of the present study is to review and evaluate existing Performance Indicator (PI) monitoring programs, and to develop and demonstrate an overall PSA-based methodology and framework for the monitoring and use of risk-based PIs and SIs (Safety Indicator), that would enable: Identification of trends and patterns in safety performance at a specific plant and a population of plants; Assessment of the significance of the trends and patterns; Identification of precursors of accident sequences and safety reductions; Identification of the most critical functional areas of concern, especially as they relate to a defense-in-depth safety philosophy; Comparison of safety performance trends at a plant with those at comparable plants; Incorporation of the PIs and SIs into a risk- and performance-based decision process. To support the overall project objective, it is important that information needs and data collection procedures are clearly outlined. Of key significance in this regard is the premise that a performance monitoring system should not be burdened by an excessive number of low-level PIs that may have only a peripheral relationship to safety. Other supporting objectives of the study include: To identify and discuss other issues pertaining to the practical implementation of a safety performance monitoring system (outlining the databases and algorithms needed); and to demonstrate implementation of the preliminary guidance for monitoring and use of the selected set of PIs and SIs, within the proposed framework, via application to the operating history of a NPP having a PSA and readily available event data

  5. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  6. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  7. Implementation of transparency and accountability under risk-based audit of electronic procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. Pysmenna

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The research analyzes the international norms and practice of realization of the purpose of state audit authorities. It is established that the activities of the state audit are aimed at improving the lives of citizens, and for this purpose the control authority, through the implementation of the principles, should achieve the goals of strengthening the principles of accountability, transparency and integrity in government and public institutions, demonstrating constant importance for citizens, parliament and other stakeholders, maintaining integrity. The study of domestic legislation on state audit in relation to compliance with international norms is conducted; the gaps and inconsistencies regarding compliance with the basic principles of transparency and accountability that ensure the purpose of the control authority activities are identified. It is determined that in order to formulate reports on the results of public procurement audits for informing the public, it is necessary to improve and apply a broader methodology of risk-based audit. The article investigates the preconditions and identifies the risks of the electronic procurement system, provides their characteristics and identifies the areas, which are negatively affected by the risks. The author identifies the information components and management functions that cannot be performed qualitatively because of the existence of risks and threats; the author also specifies the procedures for internal control over the process of administration of public procurement, and if the procedures are faced with failure, it increases the identified risks. It is proved that the proposed method of identification and evaluation of the risks of the electronic public procurement system can be used not only as a verification tool but also as the basis for compilation of reports due to the grouping of violations of the negative consequences of risks for the functioning of the system. This will ensure the

  8. Risk-Based Questionnaires Fail to Detect Adolescent Iron Deficiency and Anemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhar, Deepa L; Murray-Kolb, Laura E; Schaefer, Eric W; Paul, Ian M

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate the predictive ability of screening questionnaires to identify adolescent women at high-risk for iron deficiency or iron deficiency anemia who warrant objective laboratory testing. Cross-sectional study of 96 female individuals 12-21 years old seen at an academic medical center. Participants completed an iron deficiency risk assessment questionnaire including the 4 Bright Futures Adolescent Previsit Questionnaire anemia questions, along with depression, attention, food insecurity, and daytime sleepiness screens. Multiple linear regression controlling for age, race, and hormonal contraception use compared the predictive ability of 2 models for adolescent iron deficiency (defined as ferritin anemia (hemoglobin iron deficiency and 5% (5/96) had iron deficiency anemia. Model 1 (Bright Futures) poorly predicted ferritin and hemoglobin values (R 2  = 0.03 and 0.08, respectively). Model 2 demonstrated similarly poor predictive ability (R 2  = 0.05 and 0.06, respectively). Mean differences for depressive symptoms (0.3, 95% CI -0.2, 0.8), attention difficulty (-0.1, 95% CI -0.5, 0.4), food insecurity (0.04, 95% CI -0.5, 0.6), daytime sleepiness (0.1, 95% CI -0.1, 0.3), and body mass index percentile (-0.04, 95% CI -0.3, 0.2) were not significantly associated with ferritin in model 2. Mean differences for hemoglobin were also nonsignificant. Risk-based surveys poorly predict objective measures of iron status using ferritin and hemoglobin. Next steps are to establish the optimal timing for objective assessment of adolescent iron deficiency and anemia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. INTERNAL GOVERNANCE AND ROLE OF INTERNAL AUDIT IN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. CASE STUDY: RISK BASED PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Florin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The global financial crisis from 2008 was considered a trigger to reshape the financial systems and to enhance the risk management practices. Considering the developments and new guidelines that are now used it can be observed a “positive” effect of the crisis, in particular to strengthen the risk management culture and governance in all aspects. Comparing to 2008 year, the improvements that have been made to the risk management systems can be easily observed in the financial institutions. For the scope of the article, the subject of this review will be focused on the internal audit function. The main aspect is to capture the new practices that are now used in order to contribute to a performing internal governance system. A case study will be presented in order to better understand how the internal audit function is designed and acting as a “line” of defence in the internal governance system. Also, it is in the scope of the article to issue some recommendations for future developments of the audit function in order to better manage its mission and the objectives. A risk based model used in the planning activities is presented. The financial institutions improved significantly their internal governance system. The internal audit function is now better integrated in the internal structures and clear lines of communication were settled. As the conclusion of the article is illustrating, the internal governance was frequently not sufficiently developed causing a failure in the risk management systems from the systemically financial institutions. The content of the article has practical applicability, as the results and the recommendations could be used in the design of an audit function within a financial institution.

  10. Small drinking water systems under spatiotemporal water quality variability: a risk-based performance benchmarking framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereskie, Ty; Haider, Husnain; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Sadiq, Rehan

    2017-08-23

    Traditional approaches for benchmarking drinking water systems are binary, based solely on the compliance and/or non-compliance of one or more water quality performance indicators against defined regulatory guidelines/standards. The consequence of water quality failure is dependent on location within a water supply system as well as time of the year (i.e., season) with varying levels of water consumption. Conventional approaches used for water quality comparison purposes fail to incorporate spatiotemporal variability and degrees of compliance and/or non-compliance. This can lead to misleading or inaccurate performance assessment data used in the performance benchmarking process. In this research, a hierarchical risk-based water quality performance benchmarking framework is proposed to evaluate small drinking water systems (SDWSs) through cross-comparison amongst similar systems. The proposed framework (R WQI framework) is designed to quantify consequence associated with seasonal and location-specific water quality issues in a given drinking water supply system to facilitate more efficient decision-making for SDWSs striving for continuous performance improvement. Fuzzy rule-based modelling is used to address imprecision associated with measuring performance based on singular water quality guidelines/standards and the uncertainties present in SDWS operations and monitoring. This proposed R WQI framework has been demonstrated using data collected from 16 SDWSs in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec, Canada, and compared to the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment WQI, a traditional, guidelines/standard-based approach. The study found that the R WQI framework provides an in-depth state of water quality and benchmarks SDWSs more rationally based on the frequency of occurrence and consequence of failure events.

  11. Assessment of Canine Mast Cell Tumor Mortality Risk Based on Clinical, Histologic, Immunohistochemical, and Molecular Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horta, Rodrigo S; Lavalle, Gleidice E; Monteiro, Lidianne N; Souza, Mayara C C; Cassali, Geovanni D; Araújo, Roberto B

    2018-03-01

    Mast cell tumor (MCT) is a frequent cutaneous neoplasm in dogs that is heterogeneous in clinical presentation and biological behavior, with a variable potential for recurrence and metastasis. Accurate prediction of clinical outcomes has been challenging. The study objective was to develop a system for classification of canine MCT according to the mortality risk based on individual assessment of clinical, histologic, immunohistochemical, and molecular features. The study included 149 dogs with a histologic diagnosis of cutaneous or subcutaneous MCT. By univariate analysis, MCT metastasis and related death was significantly associated with clinical stage ( P < .0001, r P = -0.610), history of tumor recurrence ( P < .0001, r P = -0.550), Patnaik ( P < .0001, r P = -0.380) and Kiupel grades ( P < .0001, r P = -0.500), predominant organization of neoplastic cells ( P < .0001, r P = -0.452), mitotic count ( P < .0001, r P = -0.325), Ki-67 labeling index ( P < .0001, r P = -0.414), KITr pattern ( P = .02, r P = 0.207), and c-KIT mutational status ( P < .0001, r P = -0.356). By multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazard model, only 2 features were independent predictors of overall survival: an amendment of the World Health Organization clinical staging system (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 1.824 [1.210-4.481]; P = .01) and a history of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 9.250 [2.158-23.268]; P < .001]. From these results, we propose an amendment of the WHO staging system, a method of risk analysis, and a suggested approach to clinical and laboratory evaluation of dogs with cutaneous MCT.

  12. Risk-based Process Development of Biosimilars as Part of the Quality by Design Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalai, Dénes; Dietzsch, Christian; Herwig, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    In the last few years, several quality by design (QbD) studies demonstrated the benefit of systematic approaches for biopharmaceutical development. However, only very few studies identified biosimilars as a special case of product development. The targeted quality profile of biosimilars is strictly defined by the originator's product characteristic. Moreover, the major source of prior knowledge is the experience with the originator product itself. Processing this information in biosimilar development has a major effect on risk management and process development strategies. The main objective of this contribution is to demonstrate how risk management can facilitate the implementation of QbD in early-stage product development with special emphasis on fitting the reported approaches to biosimilars. Risk assessments were highlighted as important tools to integrate prior knowledge in biosimilar development. The risk assessment process as suggested by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH Q9) was reviewed and three elements were identified to play a key role in targeted risk assessment approaches: proper understanding of target linkage, risk assessment tool compliance, and criticality threshold value. Adjusting these steps to biosimilar applications helped to address some unique challenges of these products such as a strictly defined quality profile or a lack of process knowledge. This contribution demonstrates the need for tailored risk management approaches for the risk-based development of biosimilars and provides novel tools for the integration of additional knowledge available for these products. The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges such as profit loss and price competition. Companies are forced to rationalize business models and to cut costs in development as well as manufacturing. These trends recently hinder the implementation of any concepts that do not offer certain financial benefit or promise a long return of investment. Quality by

  13. Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Risiko (Risk-Based Bank Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masnawati .

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This  study  aimed  to  analyze  techniques  of  the  bank’s  health  assessment  and determine  which  strategies  should  be  done  in  order  to  improve  the  health  of the bank. The method used is the approach of Risk (Risk Based-Bank Rating in accordance with Bank Indonesia Regulation on Rating Bank that PBI Number: 13/1/PBI/2011  which  entered  into  force  on  January  1,  2012.  Bank  health assessment  performed  using  four  (4  factors:  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate Governance (GCG, Earning, and Capital. Object  of  this  study  is  PT.  Bank  Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan period  2012.  The  results  showed  that  the  health  of  banks  in  PT.  Bank Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan  getting  ranked  2,  meaning  can be  categorized  good.  Strategies  to  improve  the  health  value  of  a  bank  is  to improve aspects of Earnings and Capital. Strategis Steps that must to increase credit expansion, improve the quality and quantity of human resources, product innovation, and increase fee-based income. Keywords: Healthy  banks,  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate  Governance  (GCG,  Earnings, Capital

  14. Development of a Risk-Based Performance Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems--Application to the Monticello Mill Tailings Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; WEBB, STEPHEN W.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

    2001-01-01

    A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology is being developed to assist designers, regulators, and involved stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report presents an example of the risk-based performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results of this study can be used to identify engineering and environmental parameters (e.g., liner properties, long-term precipitation, distribution coefficients) that require additional data to reduce uncertainty in the calculations and improve confidence in the model predictions. These results can also be used to evaluate alternative engineering designs and to identify parameters most important to long-term performance

  15. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors.

  16. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors

  17. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were

  18. High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W.

    1993-09-01

    The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failure modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant

  19. High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1993-09-01

    The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failure modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant.

  20. Software requirements

    CERN Document Server

    Wiegers, Karl E

    2003-01-01

    Without formal, verifiable software requirements-and an effective system for managing them-the programs that developers think they've agreed to build often will not be the same products their customers are expecting. In SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS, Second Edition, requirements engineering authority Karl Wiegers amplifies the best practices presented in his original award-winning text?now a mainstay for anyone participating in the software development process. In this book, you'll discover effective techniques for managing the requirements engineering process all the way through the development cy

  1. Development and application of proposed ASME Section XI Code changes for risk-based inspection of piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    This synopsis has been written to describe a perspective on the development and application of ASME Section XI Code changes for risk-based inspection of piping. The content is specifically related to the use of risk-based technology for Inservice Inspection (ISI) of piping and efforts made to support the ASME Research/Westinghouse Owners Group/Millstone Unit 3 approach for use of this technology. The opinions contained herein may or may not reflect those of the ASME Codes and Standards Committees responsible for these activities. In order to take such a detailed technical subject and put it into an understandable format, the author has chosen to provide an analogy to simplify what is actually taking place. Risk-based technology in the ISI of piping can be likened to the process of making and using specifically ground prescription glasses to allow for better vision. It provides a process to develop and use these uniquely ground glasses that will dynamically focus on all the locations and obstacles within a plant's piping systems that could cause that plant to trip and fall; more importantly it identifies the locations where the fall could possibly hurt someone else. In this way, Nuclear Safety is being addressed

  2. Approach and issues toward development of risk-based release standards for radioactive scrap metal recycle and reuse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Nieves, L.A.; Nabelssi, B.K.; LePoire, D.J.

    1994-01-01

    The decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities is expected to generate large amounts of slightly radioactive scrap metal (RSM). It is likely that some of these materials will be suitable for recycling and reuse. The amount of scrap steel from DOE facilities, for instance, is estimated to be more than one million tons (Hertzler 1993). However, under current practice and without the establishment of acceptable recycling standards, the RSM would be disposed of primarily as radioactive low-level waste (LLW). In the United States, no specific standards have been developed for the unrestricted release of bulk contaminated materials. Although standards for unrestricted release of radioactive surface contamination (NRC 1974) have existed for about 20 years, the release of materials is not commonly practiced because of the lack of risk-based justifications. Recent guidance from international bodies (IAEA 1988) has established a basis for deriving risk-based release limits for radioactive materials. It is important, therefore, to evaluate the feasibility of recycling and associated issues necessary for the establishment of risk-based release limits for the radioactive metals

  3. An integrated approach to risk-based remediation of a former bulk fuel storage facility adjacent a marine environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, L.; Hers, I. [Golder Associates Ltd., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    An integrated approach to risk-based remediation of a former bulk fuel storage facility adjacent to a marine environment was discussed. The presentation provided an introduction and illustration to the site location and history, located close to Skagway, Alaska and northwestern British Columbia. The site investigation and conceptual model were also presented. The remedial approach was also described with reference to a risk-based action approach, remedial objectives, soil vapour extraction (SVE)-bioventing, and air sparging-biosparging. The objectives were to minimize potential exposure to aquatic receptors by minimizing non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPL) mobility and dissolved transport of petroleum hydrocarbons. Groundwater modeling to assess the attenuation rate and to determine remedial targets was also discussed. Model validation and results of groundwater modeling as well as remediation system details and performance were then provided. It was determined that significant attenuation is occurring and that effective mass removal and concentrations have been decreasing over time. It was demonstrated that risk-based remedial goals and hydrogeology can change with land use/development. tabs., figs.

  4. Six Sigma Quality Management System and Design of Risk-based Statistical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, James O; Westgard, Sten A

    2017-03-01

    Six sigma concepts provide a quality management system (QMS) with many useful tools for managing quality in medical laboratories. This Six Sigma QMS is driven by the quality required for the intended use of a test. The most useful form for this quality requirement is the allowable total error. Calculation of a sigma-metric provides the best predictor of risk for an analytical examination process, as well as a design parameter for selecting the statistical quality control (SQC) procedure necessary to detect medically important errors. Simple point estimates of sigma at medical decision concentrations are sufficient for laboratory applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart B of... - Risk-Based Capital Stress Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... required by statute under stipulated conditions of credit risk and interest rate risk. The stress test uses... credit risk, interest rate risk, the cashflow generator, and the capital calculation. Linkages among the components ensure that the measures of credit and interest rate risk pass into the cashflow generator. The...

  6. Risk and Argument: A Risk-based Argumentation Method for Practical Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Tun, Thein Tan; Yu, Yijun; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Nuseibeh, Bashar

    When showing that a software system meets certain security requirements, it is often necessary to work with formal and informal descriptions of the system behavior, vulnerabilities, and threats from potential attackers. In earlier work, Haley et al. [1] showed structured argumentation could deal

  7. Risk based decision support for new air traffic operations with reduced aircraft separation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Speijker, L.J.P.

    2007-01-01

    With the steady increase in air traffic, the aviation system is under continuous pressure to increase aircraft handling capacity. Various new Air Traffic Management systems and flight procedures are proposed to increase airport capacity while maintaining the required level of safety. Newly proposed

  8. Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.

    1995-03-01

    Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.

  9. Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellish, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

  10. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: making water supply levels transparent to water users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens; Vuren Saskia, Van; der Vat Marnix, Van

    2016-04-01

    Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes (IMPREX), running from 2016-2019, a consortium of the Dutch research institute Deltares and the Dutch water management consultant HKV will design and build a tool to support quantitative risk-informed decision-making for fresh water management for the Netherlands, in particular the decision on water supply service levels. The research will be conducted in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry for Infrastructure and Environment, the Freshwater Supply Programme Office, the Dutch governmental organisation responsible for water management (Rijkswaterstaat), the Foundation for Applied Water Research, (STOWA, knowledge centre of the water boards) and a number of water boards. In the session we will present the conceptual framework for a risk-based approach for water shortage management and share thoughts on how the proposed tool can be applied in the Dutch water management context.

  11. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads

  12. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E. [BNFL Fuel Solutions, Campbell, CA (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads.

  13. Risk based optimization of technical specifications for operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-12-01

    The objective of the report is to present an overview of the risk and reliability based approaches (using a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA)) for improving nuclear power plant technical specifications (TS). In that case, it will provide an information base to the Member States in seeking PSA based applications to enhance the effectiveness of their technical specifications. To achieve this objective, the report discusses the basic objectives and reasons for seeking TS changes, the methods, data requirements and uses of different types of applications, and an overview of different applications that have been completed, including detailed descriptions of selected applications. Refs, figs and tabs

  14. FlySec: a risk-based airport security management system based on security as a service concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyriazanos, Dimitris M.; Segou, Olga E.; Zalonis, Andreas; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    Complementing the ACI/IATA efforts, the FLYSEC European H2020 Research and Innovation project (http://www.fly-sec.eu/) aims to develop and demonstrate an innovative, integrated and end-to-end airport security process for passengers, enabling a guided and streamlined procedure from the landside to airside and into the boarding gates, and offering for an operationally validated innovative concept for end-to-end aviation security. FLYSEC ambition turns through a well-structured work plan into: (i) innovative processes facilitating risk-based screening; (ii) deployment and integration of new technologies and repurposing existing solutions towards a risk-based Security paradigm shift; (iii) improvement of passenger facilitation and customer service, bringing security as a real service in the airport of tomorrow;(iv) achievement of measurable throughput improvement and a whole new level of Quality of Service; and (v) validation of the results through advanced "in-vitro" simulation and "in-vivo" pilots. On the technical side, FLYSEC achieves its ambitious goals by integrating new technologies on video surveillance, intelligent remote image processing and biometrics combined with big data analysis, open-source intelligence and crowdsourcing. Repurposing existing technologies is also in the FLYSEC objectives, such as mobile application technologies for improved passenger experience and positive boarding applications (i.e. services to facilitate boarding and landside/airside way finding) as well as RFID for carry-on luggage tracking and quick unattended luggage handling. In this paper, the authors will describe the risk based airport security management system which powers FLYSEC intelligence and serves as the backend on top of which FLYSEC's front end technologies reside for security services management, behaviour and risk analysis.

  15. Effect of risk-based payment model on caries inequalities in preschool children assessed by geo-mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmén, Anders; Strömberg, Ulf; Håkansson, Gunnel; Twetman, Svante

    2018-01-05

    To describe, with aid of geo-mapping, the effects of a risk-based capitation model linked to caries-preventive guidelines on the polarization of caries in preschool children living in the Halland region of Sweden. The new capitation model was implemented in 2013 in which more money was allocated to Public Dental Clinics surrounded by administrative parishes inhabited by children with increased caries risk, while a reduced capitation was allocated to those clinics with a low burden of high risk children. Regional geo-maps of caries risk based on caries prevalence, level of education and the families purchasing power were produced for 3-6-year-old children in 2010 (n = 10,583) and 2016 (n = 7574). Newly migrated children to the region (n = 344 in 2010 and n = 522 in 2016) were analyzed separately. A regional caries polarization index was calculated as the ratio between the maximum and minimum estimates of caries frequency on parish-level, based on a Bayesian hierarchical mapping model. Overall, the total caries prevalence (dmfs > 0) remained unchanged from 2010 (10.6%) to 2016 (10.5%). However, the polarization index decreased from 7.0 in 2010 to 5.6 in 2016. Newly arrived children born outside Sweden had around four times higher caries prevalence than their Swedish-born peers. A risk-based capitation model could reduce the socio-economic inequalities in dental caries among preschool children living in Sweden. Although updated evidence-based caries-preventive guidelines were released, the total prevalence of caries on dentin surface level was unaffected 4 years after the implementation.

  16. Perceived Benefits and Challenges of a Risk-Based Approach to Multidisciplinary Chronic Kidney Disease Care: A Qualitative Descriptive Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smekal, Michelle D; Tam-Tham, Helen; Finlay, Juli; Donald, Maoliosa; Benterud, Eleanor; Thomas, Chandra; Quinn, Robert R; Tam, Kin; Manns, Braden J; Tonelli, Marcello; Bello, Aminu; Tangri, Navdeep; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R

    2018-01-01

    The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) provides an estimate of risk of progression to kidney failure, and may guide clinical care. We aimed to describe patient, family, and health care provider's perspectives of the perceived benefits and challenges of using a risk-based approach to guide care delivery for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), and refine implementation based on their input. We used qualitative methodology to explore perceived benefits and challenges of implementing a risk-based approach (using the KFRE) to determine eligibility for multidisciplinary CKD care in Southern Alberta. We obtained perspectives from patients and families through focus groups, as well as input from health care providers through interviews and open-ended responses from an online survey. Twelve patients/family members participated in 2 focus groups, 16 health care providers participated in an interview, and 40 health care providers responded to the survey. Overall, participants felt that a KFRE-based approach had the potential to improve efficiency of the clinics by targeting care to patients at highest risk of kidney failure; however, they also expressed concerns about the impact of loss of services for lower risk individuals. Participants also articulated concerns about a perceived lack of capacity for adequate CKD patient care in the community. Our implementation strategy was modified as a result of participants' feedback. We identified benefits and challenges to implementation of a risk-based approach to guide care of patients with advanced CKD. Based on these results, our implementation strategy has been modified by removing the category of referral back to primary care alone, and instead having that decision made jointly by nephrologists and patients among low-risk patients.

  17. Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shih-Yew

    1995-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities. (author)

  18. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  19. Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities

  20. Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Arnot, Jon

    2015-01-01

    We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify....../oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models....

  1. The Risk Based Approach in the New European Anti-Money Laundering Legislation: a Law and Economics View

    OpenAIRE

    D. Masciandaro; L. Dalla Pellegrina

    2013-01-01

    In 2005 the European Commission adopted the Third Directive on Anti-Money Laundering (AML), which was to be implemented into national laws at the latest by December 2007. The key feature that characterizes the Third Directive is the idea that the regulatory framework should be risk-based (RBA). The aim of this regulation is to elicit a high level of outcome in terms of AML effectiveness from self-interested financial institutions (FIs) who hold private information. In this paper we study how ...

  2. Risk based requirements for long term stewardship: A proof-of-principle analysis of an analytic method tested on selected Hanford locations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarvis, T.T.; Andrews, W.B.; Buck, J.W.

    1998-03-01

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production, research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate [DOE, 1995a], the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little information about post-cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about future site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous

  3. Risk Based Requirements for Long Term Stewardship: A Proof-of-Principle Analysis of an Analytic Method Tested on Selected Hanford Locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GM Gelston; JW Buck; LR Huesties; MS Peffers; TB Miley; TT Jarvis; WB Andrews

    1998-12-03

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate DOE, 1995a, the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little irdiormation about post- cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about fiture site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous.

  4. Closure requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutchinson, I.P.G.; Ellison, R.D.

    1992-01-01

    Closure of a waste management unit can be either permanent or temporary. Permanent closure may be due to: economic factors which make it uneconomical to mine the remaining minerals; depletion of mineral resources; physical site constraints that preclude further mining and beneficiation; environmental, regulatory or other requirements that make it uneconomical to continue to develop the resources. Temporary closure can occur for a period of several months to several years, and may be caused by factors such as: periods of high rainfall or snowfall which prevent mining and waste disposal; economic circumstances which temporarily make it uneconomical to mine the target mineral; labor problems requiring a cessation of operations for a period of time; construction activities that are required to upgrade project components such as the process facilities and waste management units; and mine or process plant failures that require extensive repairs. Permanent closure of a mine waste management unit involves the provision of durable surface containment features to protect the waters of the State in the long-term. Temporary closure may involve activities that range from ongoing maintenance of the existing facilities to the installation of several permanent closure features in order to reduce ongoing maintenance. This paper deals with the permanent closure features

  5. Using ensemble weather forecast in a risk based real time optimization of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2015-01-01

    Global Real Time Control (RTC) of urban drainage system is increasingly seen as cost-effective solution in order to respond to increasing performance demand (e.g. reduction of Combined Sewer Overflow, protection of sensitive areas as bathing water etc.). The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA......) strategy was developed to operate Urban Drainage Systems (UDS) in order to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, the expected runoff volume based on a 2-hours radar forecast model and an estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecast....... However, such temporal horizon (1-2 hours) is relatively short when used for the operation of large storage facilities, which may require a few days to be emptied. This limits the performance of the optimization and control in reducing combined sewer overflow and in preparing for possible flooding. Based...

  6. Achieving continuous improvement in reductions in foodborne listeriosis: A risk-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, Lone

    2005-01-01

    likely due to consumption of contaminated soft cheeses such as queso fresco and queso blanco. The International Life Sciences Institute Risk Science Institute Expert Panel concluded that certain foods pose a high risk for causing listeriosis. High-risk foods have all of the following properties: (1) have...... the potential for contamination with L. monocytogenes; (2) support the growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers; (3) are ready to eat; (4) require refrigeration; and (5) are stored for an extended period of time. Control strategies are needed in the food chain from preharvest through consumption to minimize...... the likelihood that food will become contaminated by L. monocytogenes and to prevent the growth of the organism to high numbers. The Expert Panel identified three main strategies for ensuring continuous improvement in reducing foodborne listeriosis: (1) preventing contamination of foods with L. monocytogenes; (2...

  7. Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

    2017-04-01

    In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

  8. Methodology for risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valle, Antonio Torres; Oliva, Jose de Jesus Rivero

    2012-01-01

    The hazardous configurations control in Nuclear Power Plants is an application of a previous Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). A more complete option would be the risk monitoring for the online detection of these configurations but expert personnel would be required to deal with the complexities of PSA and risk monitor. The paper presents a simpler but effective approach: a method of configuration control, based on dependencies matrixes. The algorithm is included in a computer code called SECURE A-Z. The configuration control is carried out in a qualitative way, without previous PSA results and not using a Risk Monitor. The simplicity of the method warrants its application to facilities where these tools have not been developed, allowing the detection of hazardous configurations during operation and increasing plant safety. This configuration control system was implemented in the Embalse Nuclear Power Plant in Argentina. The paper shows the application of the algorithm to the analysis of a simplified safety system. (author)

  9. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-03-15

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  10. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarca, Riccardo; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  11. Molecular and risk-based approach to nutrient development for a proposed sub-surface biogasification field trial in a biogenic gas field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambo, Adewale J.; Strapoc, Dariusz; Pittenger, Michelle; Huizinga, Bradley [ConocoPhillips (Canada); Wood, Ladonna; Ashby, Matt [Taxon Biosciences (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the molecular and risk-based approach to nutrient development for a proposed sub-surface biogasification field trial in a biogenic gas field. From field sampling, variability was seen in water chemistry and environmental parameters across the field; DNA yield also varied across the field and showed distinct spatial variation. The composition of microbial populations and relative distribution of archaea populations in the Cooks Inlet water is represented using pie and bar charts. The nutrient recipe was developed using known information on nutrient requirements of mathematically correlated microbial associations. The process of on-site nutrient injection is explained. Some of the mitigation plans for the risks involved during the process include, among others, limiting biofilm prevalence and avoiding bio-plugging and bio-corrosion. Biofilm is likely to develop in the injection line but less likely in nutrient mixing due to the high nutrient concentration. From the study, it can be concluded that community composition correlates with field geochemical parameters and methane pathways.

  12. 29 CFR 99.215 - Relation to other audit requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Relation to other audit requirements. 99.215 Section 99.215... Audits § 99.215 Relation to other audit requirements. (a) Audit under this part in lieu of other audits... audited as a major program using the risk-based audit approach described in § 99.520 and, if not, the...

  13. A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

    2015-04-01

    Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation

  14. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Kaiser, Maria; Špačková, Olga; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

    2018-05-01

    Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood) or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes), costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

  15. Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dittes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes, costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

  16. Calculation of risk-based detection limits for radionuclides in the liquid effluents from Korean nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Jae Hak

    2017-01-01

    In order to review if present detection limits of radionuclides in liquid effluent from nuclear power plants are effective enough to warrant compliance with regulatory discharge limits, a risk-based approach is developed to derive a new detection limit for each radionuclide based on radiological criteria. Equations and adjustment factors are also proposed to discriminate the validity of the detection limits for multiple radionuclides in the liquid effluent with or without consideration of the nuclide composition. From case studies to three nuclear power plants in Korea with actual operation data from 2006 to 2015, the present detection limits have turned out to be effective for Hanul Unit 1 but may not be sensitive enough for Kori Unit 1 (8 out of 14 radionuclides) and Wolsong Unit 1 (9 out of 42 radionuclides). However, it is shown that the present detection limits for the latter two nuclear power plants can be justified, if credit is given to the radionuclide composition. Otherwise, consideration should be given to adjustment of the present detection limits. The risk-based approach of this study can be used to determine the validity of established detection limits of a specific nuclear power plant. (author)

  17. Development of field-wide risk based remediation objectives for an aging oil field : Devon Canada Swan Hills Field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brewster, M.; North, C.; Leighton-Boyce, G. [WorleyParsons Komex, Calgary, AB (Canada); Moore, D. [Devon Canada Corp., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The development of field-wide risk based remediation objectives for the aging Devon Canada Swan Hills oil field was examined along with the key components of the closure strategy. These included source removal to the extent practical, long term monitoring, and achievable risk-based remedial objectives that were appropriate to the remote boreal forest setting of the Swan Hills field. A two stage approach was presented. The first stage involved a field wide background framework which included defining areas of common physical and ecological setting and developing appropriate exposure scenarios. The second stage involved site-specific risk assessments which included adjusting for site-specific conditions and an early demonstration project to prove the concept. A GIS approach was used to identify areas of common physical and ecological setting including: physiography; surface water; land use; vegetation ecozones; surficial and bedrock geology; and water well use. Species lists were compiled for vegetation, terrestrial wildlife (mammals, birds, amphibians), and aquatic species (fish and invertebrates). Major contaminant sources, problem formulation, vegetation bioassays, invertebrate bioassays, black spruce emergence, and guideline development were other topics covered during the presentation. Last, a summary of progress was presented. A field-wide review and development of risk zones and site-specific risk assessment has been completed. A regulatory review is underway. tabs., figs.

  18. Code cases for implementing risk-based inservice testing in the ASME OM code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowley, C.W.

    1996-12-01

    Historically inservice testing has been reasonably effective, but quite costly. Recent applications of plant PRAs to the scope of the IST program have demonstrated that of the 30 pumps and 500 valves in the typical plant IST program, less than half of the pumps and ten percent of the valves are risk significant. The way the ASME plans to tackle this overly-conservative scope for IST components is to use the PRA and plant expert panels to create a two tier IST component categorization scheme. The PRA provides the quantitative risk information and the plant expert panel blends the quantitative and deterministic information to place the IST component into one of two categories: More Safety Significant Component (MSSC) or Less Safety Significant Component (LSSC). With all the pumps and valves in the IST program placed in MSSC or LSSC categories, two different testing strategies will be applied. The testing strategies will be unique for the type of component, such as centrifugal pump, positive displacement pump, MOV, AOV, SOV, SRV, PORV, HOV, CV, and MV. A series of OM Code Cases are being developed to capture this process for a plant to use. One Code Case will be for Component Importance Ranking. The remaining Code Cases will develop the MSSC and LSSC testing strategy for type of component. These Code Cases are planned for publication in early 1997. Later, after some industry application of the Code Cases, the alternative Code Case requirements will gravitate to the ASME OM Code as appendices.

  19. A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Stephenson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

  20. Code cases for implementing risk-based inservice testing in the ASME OM code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowley, C.W.

    1996-01-01

    Historically inservice testing has been reasonably effective, but quite costly. Recent applications of plant PRAs to the scope of the IST program have demonstrated that of the 30 pumps and 500 valves in the typical plant IST program, less than half of the pumps and ten percent of the valves are risk significant. The way the ASME plans to tackle this overly-conservative scope for IST components is to use the PRA and plant expert panels to create a two tier IST component categorization scheme. The PRA provides the quantitative risk information and the plant expert panel blends the quantitative and deterministic information to place the IST component into one of two categories: More Safety Significant Component (MSSC) or Less Safety Significant Component (LSSC). With all the pumps and valves in the IST program placed in MSSC or LSSC categories, two different testing strategies will be applied. The testing strategies will be unique for the type of component, such as centrifugal pump, positive displacement pump, MOV, AOV, SOV, SRV, PORV, HOV, CV, and MV. A series of OM Code Cases are being developed to capture this process for a plant to use. One Code Case will be for Component Importance Ranking. The remaining Code Cases will develop the MSSC and LSSC testing strategy for type of component. These Code Cases are planned for publication in early 1997. Later, after some industry application of the Code Cases, the alternative Code Case requirements will gravitate to the ASME OM Code as appendices

  1. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Pollutants, human health and the environment - A risk-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plant, Jane A; Bone, James; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala; Voulvoulis, Nickalaos

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 50 a there has been mounting unease about the risk of synthetic chemicals to human health. Publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962 catalyzed public concern about chemicals. There is now a vast range of synthetic substances in the environment and their potential cocktail as well as the effects of chronic exposure is of concern. Concerns about pollution are not restricted to toxic chemicals, with radioactivity being an issue that continues to be emotive, and exposure to substances such as particulates has been seen to cause health problems. Improved understanding of chemical risks to the environment and human health suggest that a precautionary approach is adopted, with new approaches demonstrating how nature uses thousands of sustainable, non-toxic processes, which can be copied by industry. Policy has evolved from the prevention of local pollution to the holistic management of environmental quality. Regulation is now increasingly underpinned by risk assessment and responsibility for understanding and managing chemical risk is being transferred progressively to manufacturers and users. There is now an increased emphasis on individual responsibilities which requires a debate about the risks and benefits of chemicals in which all members of society can participate.

  3. Planning Risk-Based SQC Schedules for Bracketed Operation of Continuous Production Analyzers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, James O; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, Sten A

    2018-02-01

    To minimize patient risk, "bracketed" statistical quality control (SQC) is recommended in the new CLSI guidelines for SQC (C24-Ed4). Bracketed SQC requires that a QC event both precedes and follows (brackets) a group of patient samples. In optimizing a QC schedule, the frequency of QC or run size becomes an important planning consideration to maintain quality and also facilitate responsive reporting of results from continuous operation of high production analytic systems. Different plans for optimizing a bracketed SQC schedule were investigated on the basis of Parvin's model for patient risk and CLSI C24-Ed4's recommendations for establishing QC schedules. A Sigma-metric run size nomogram was used to evaluate different QC schedules for processes of different sigma performance. For high Sigma performance, an effective SQC approach is to employ a multistage QC procedure utilizing a "startup" design at the beginning of production and a "monitor" design periodically throughout production. Example QC schedules are illustrated for applications with measurement procedures having 6-σ, 5-σ, and 4-σ performance. Continuous production analyzers that demonstrate high σ performance can be effectively controlled with multistage SQC designs that employ a startup QC event followed by periodic monitoring or bracketing QC events. Such designs can be optimized to minimize the risk of harm to patients. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  4. Neural substrates underlying effort, time, and risk-based decision making in motivated behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Matthew R; Simpson, Eleanor H; Balsam, Peter D

    2016-09-01

    All mobile organisms rely on adaptive motivated behavior to overcome the challenges of living in an environment in which essential resources may be limited. A variety of influences ranging from an organism's environment, experiential history, and physiological state all influence a cost-benefit analysis which allows motivation to energize behavior and direct it toward specific goals. Here we review the substantial amount of research aimed at discovering the interconnected neural circuits which allow organisms to carry-out the cost-benefit computations which allow them to behave in adaptive ways. We specifically focus on how the brain deals with different types of costs, including effort requirements, delays to reward and payoff riskiness. An examination of this broad literature highlights the importance of the extended neural circuits which enable organisms to make decisions about these different types of costs. This involves Cortical Structures, including the Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC), the Orbital Frontal Cortex (OFC), the Infralimbic Cortex (IL), and prelimbic Cortex (PL), as well as the Baso-Lateral Amygdala (BLA), the Nucleus Accumbens (NAcc), the Ventral Pallidal (VP), the Sub Thalamic Nucleus (STN) among others. Some regions are involved in multiple aspects of cost-benefit computations while the involvement of other regions is restricted to information relating to specific types of costs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

    1997-01-01

    N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

  6. U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folga, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Portante, Edgar [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Shamsuddin, Shabbir [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompkins, Angeli [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Talaber, Leah [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McLamore, Mike [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kavicky, Jim [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-01

    This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured across all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.

  7. Nationwide Risk-Based PCB Remediation Waste Disposal Approvals under Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Section 761.61(c)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains information about Nationwide Risk-Based Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) Remediation Waste Disposal Approvals under Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Section 761.61(c)

  8. Application of risk based inspection as a part of life management of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Babar, A.K.; Saraf, R.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Venkat Raj, V.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Risk Informed approach is a systematic effort to improve plant safety in a more efficient manner by distributing the available safety resources depending on the importance to plant safety. This approach has found immense application in various aspects associated with Nuclear Power Plants, including design, manufacturing, operation and regulation. Typical applications of Risk Informed approach are in Technical Specification, In-Service Inspection (ISI) requirements, Motor Operated Valve testing, Configuration Control etc. In order to cater to such variety of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) based Risk Informed requirements, a software package, 'Risk Monitor' has been developed by the authors. An important application of Risk informed approach that has been undertaken for Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) is towards Risk Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI). Studies are being conducted to evolve an inspection plan that is optimised to provide effective inspections at the right location with a proper inspection frequency. Using risk informed approach, the identification of system / component for inspection resource allocation is based on the results from Level 1 PSA of a NPP. Even though this methodology can be employed on any of the nuclear components/systems such as mechanical systems, instrumentation, etc., as a starting point, piping has been considered for employing Risk Informed Inspection. Plant risk assessment is modelled through the analysis of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) using PSA models. Risk Informed Inspection program of piping involves the estimation of failure probability or frequency of a piping segment and estimation of consequences of piping failures. ISI program changes could affect the failure probability values of piping and can introduce a change in CDF. These effects can be brought out through the implementation of Risk Informed inspection strategy. Various importance measures like Fussel-Vesely, Birnbaum

  9. A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

    2015-01-01

    Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

  10. Chronic alcohol intake during adolescence, but not adulthood, promotes persistent deficits in risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Abigail G; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Clark, Jeremy J

    2014-06-01

    Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern and is strongly correlated with the development of alcohol abuse problems in adulthood. Adolescence is characterized by maturation and remodeling of brain regions implicated in decision making and therefore may be uniquely vulnerable to environmental insults such as alcohol exposure. We have previously demonstrated that voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescence results in maladaptive risk-based decision making in adulthood. However, it is unclear whether this effect on risk-based decision making can be attributed to chronic alcohol use in general or to a selective effect of alcohol use during the adolescent period. Ethanol (EtOH) was presented to adolescent (postnatal day [PND] 30 to 49) and adult rats (PND 80 to 99) for 20 days, either 24 hours or 1 h/d, in a gel matrix consisting of distilled water, gelatin, polycose (10%), and EtOH (10%). The 24-hour time course of EtOH intake was measured and compared between adolescent and adult animals. Following 20 days of withdrawal from EtOH, we assessed risk-based decision making with a concurrent instrumental probability-discounting task. Blood EtOH concentrations (BECs) were taken from trunk blood and assessed using the Analox micro-stat GM7 in separate groups of animals at different time points. Unlike animals exposed to EtOH during adolescence, animals exposed to alcohol during adulthood did not display differences in risk preference compared to controls. Adolescent and adult rats displayed similar EtOH intake levels and patterns when given either 24- or 1-hour access per day. In addition, while both groups reached significant BEC levels, we failed to find a difference between adult and adolescent animals. Here, we show that adolescent, but not adult, EtOH intake leads to a persistent increase in risk preference which cannot be attributed to differences in intake levels or BECs attained. Our findings support previous work implicating adolescence as a time

  11. 78 FR 4032 - Prompt Corrective Action, Requirements for Insurance, and Promulgation of NCUA Rules and Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-18

    ... interest rate risk requirements. The amended IRPS increases the asset threshold that identifies credit... asset threshold used to define a ``complex'' credit union for determining whether risk-based net worth... or credit unions) with assets of $50 million or less from interest rate risk rule requirements. To...

  12. 77 FR 593 - Enhanced Prudential Standards and Early Remediation Requirements for Covered Companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-05

    ... standards include risk-based capital and leverage requirements, liquidity standards, requirements for overall risk management (including establishing a risk committee), single-counterparty credit limits...-counterparty credit limits; (iv) overall risk management and risk committees; (v) stress tests; and (vi) a debt...

  13. Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O., E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

  14. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing, & budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.G.; Castillo, C.; Huntsman, J.; Killoy, S.; Lucek, H.; Marks, T.C.

    2011-01-01

    Faced with the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex Transformation, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming and inherently introduces bias of the scheduler or organization into the process. Clearly a well-defined process, quantitative risk-based tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). Faced with limited available data, innovation was needed to extrapolate intelligent relative data for key risk parameters based on known data elements. The IFDP Supermodel was customized and expanded to provide this capability for conceptual planning of diverse project portfolios and multiple sites. (author)

  15. Establishment of Risk based microbiological criteria in the Nordic countries: A case study on Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    Microbiological criteria (MCs) offer a practical tool for food safety control and they are currently under discussion internationally. To meet the present scientific standards, there is an increasing demand for so- called “risk based” microbiological criteria that are based on risk assessment....... In this project we studied the potentials for setting risk based microbiological criteria on Campylobacter in chicken meat by studying the potential impact that specific microbiological criteria would have in different Nordic countries. This is done on the basis of different data sets that have been collected...... based microbiological criteria, the “case-by-case” risk assessment methodology is used (Christensen et al 2013) and its impact is analysed on the basis of the same data sets. In both approaches the same risk assessment model for Campylobacter in broiler meat is used. The difference between...

  16. Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O.

    2016-01-01

    During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

  17. Computational framework for risk-based planning of inspections, maintenance, and condition monitoring using discrete Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for risk-based planning of inspections and repairs for deteriorating components. Two distinct types of decision rules are used to model decisions: simple decision rules that depend on constants or observed variables (e.g. inspection outcome...... expecte d life-cycle costs. For advanced decision rules, simulations are performed to estimate the expected costs, and dBNs are used within the simulations for decision-making. Information from inspections and condition monitoring are included if available. An example in the paper demonstrates...... the framework and the implemented strategies and decision rules, including various types of condition-based maintenance. The strategies using advanced decision rules lead to reduced costs compared to the simple decision rules when condition monitoring is applied, and the value of condition monitoring...

  18. Risk-based assessment of the allowable outage times for the unit 1 leningrad nuclear power plant ECCS components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koukhar, Sergey; Vinnikov, Bronislav

    2009-01-01

    Present paper describes a method for risk - informed assessment of the Allowable Outage Times (AOTs). The AOT is the time, when components of a safety system allowed to be out of service during power operation or during shutdown operation off a plant. If the components are not restored during the time, the plant in operation must be shut down or the plant in a given shutdown mode has to go to safer shutdown mode. Application of the method is also provided for the equipment of the Unit 1 Leningrad NPP ECCS components. For solution of the problem it is necessary to carry out two series of computations using a Living PSA model, level 1. In the first series of the computations the core damage frequency (CDFb) for the base configuration of the plant is determined (there is no equipment out of service). Here the symbol 'b' means the base configuration of a plant. In the second series of the computations the core damage frequency (CDFi) for the configuration of the plant with the component (which is out of service) is calculated. That is here CDFi is determined for the failure probability of the component equal to 1.0 (component 'i' is unavailable). Then it is necessary to determine so called Risk Increase Factor (RIF) using the following ratio: RIFi = CDFi / CDFb. At last the AOT is calculated with the help of the ratio: AOTi = Tppr / RIFi, where Tppr is a period of time between two Planned Preventive Repairs (PPRs). 1. Using the risk based approach the AOTs were calculated for a set of the components of the Unit 1 Leningrad NPP ECCS components. 2. The main conclusion from the analysis is that the current deterministic AOTs for the ECCS components are conservative and should be extended. 3. The risk based extension of the AOTs for the ECCS components can prevent the Unit 1 Leningrad NPP to enter into the operating modes with increased risk. (author)

  19. Risk-based probabilistic approach to assess the impact of false mussel invasions on farmed hard clams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Ju, Yun-Ru; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide a risk-based predictive model to assess the impact of false mussel Mytilopsis sallei invasions on hard clam Meretrix lusoria farms in the southwestern region of Taiwan. The actual spread of invasive false mussel was predicted by using analytical models based on advection-diffusion and gravity models. The proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation by false mussel were used to characterize risk estimates. A mortality model was parameterized to assess hard clam mortality risk characterized by false mussel density and infestation intensity. The published data were reanalyzed to parameterize a predictive threshold model described by a cumulative Weibull distribution function that can be used to estimate the exceeding thresholds of proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation. Results indicated that the infestation thresholds were 2-17 ind clam(-1) for adult hard clams, whereas 4 ind clam(-1) for nursery hard clams. The average colonization thresholds were estimated to be 81-89% for cultivated and nursery hard clam farms, respectively. Our results indicated that false mussel density and infestation, which caused 50% hard clam mortality, were estimated to be 2,812 ind m(-2) and 31 ind clam(-1), respectively. This study further indicated that hard clam farms that are close to the coastal area have at least 50% probability for 43% mortality caused by infestation. This study highlighted that a probabilistic risk-based framework characterized by probability distributions and risk curves is an effective representation of scientific assessments for farmed hard clam in response to the nonnative false mussel invasion.

  20. Use of a risk-based hydrogeologic model to set remedial goals in a Puget Sound basin watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascoe, G.; Gould, L.; Martin, J.; Riley, M.; Floyd, T.

    1995-01-01

    The Port of Seattle is redeveloping industrial land for a container terminal along the southwest Seattle waterfront. Concrete, asphalt, ballast, and a landfill geomembrane will cover the site and prevent direct contact with surface soils, so remedial goals focused on groundwater contamination from subsurface soils. Groundwater at the site flows along an old stormwater drain, in a filled estuary of a small creek, to Elliott Bay. Remedial goals for a variety of organic chemicals, metals, and TPH in subsurface soils were identified to protect marine receptors in the bay and their consumers. Washington State and federal marine water quality criteria were the starting points in the risk-based model, and corresponding concentrations of chemicals in groundwater were back-calculated through a hydrogeologic model. The hydrogeologic model included a mixing zone component in the bay and dilution/attenuation factors along the groundwater transport pathway that were determined from onsite groundwater and surface water chemical concentrations. A rearranged Summers equation was then applied in a second back-calculation to determine subsurface soil concentrations corresponding to the back calculated groundwater concentrations. The equation was based on calculated aquifer flow rates for the small creek watershed and rates of infiltration through surface materials calculated for each redevelopment soil cover type by the HELP model. Results of the risk-based hydrogeologic back-calculation model indicate that, depending on soil cover type at the site, concentrations in subsurface soils of PCBs from 2 to 1,000 mg/kg and of TPH up to free phase concentration would not result in risks to marine organisms or their consumers in Elliott Bay

  1. USING RISK-BASED CORRECTIVE ACTION (RBCA) TO ASSESS (THEORETICAL) CANCER DEATHS AVERTED COMPARED TO THE (REAL) COST OF ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, M. L.; Hylko, J. M.

    2002-01-01

    In 1978, on the basis of existing health studies at the time, the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project legislation was proposed that would authorize remedial action at inactive uranium processing sites and vicinity properties. The cost of the program to the Federal Government was expected to be $180 million. With the completion of this project, approximately 1300 theoretical cancer deaths were prevented in the next 100 years at a cost of $1.45 billion, based on the Fiscal Year 1998 Federal UMTRA budget. The individual site costs ranged from $0.2 million up to $18 billion spent per theoretical cancer death averted over the next 100 years. Resources required to sustain remediation activities such as this are subject to reduction over time, and are originally based on conservative assumptions that tend to overestimate risks to the general public. This evaluation used a process incorporating risk-based corrective action (RBCA); a three-tiered, decision-making process tailoring corrective action activities according to site-specific conditions and risks. If RBCA had been applied at the start of the UMTRA Project, and using a criterion of >1 excess cancer death prevented as justification to remediate the site, only 50% of the existing sites would have been remediated, yielding a cost savings of $303.6 million to the Federal Government and affected States, which share 10% of the cost. This cost savings equates to 21% of the overall project budget. In addition, only 22% of the vicinity properties had structural contamination contributing to elevated interior gamma exposure and radon levels. Focusing only on these particular properties could have saved an additional $269.3 million, yielding a total savings of $573 million; 40% of the overall project budget. As operational experience is acquired, including greater understanding of the radiological and nonradiological risks, decisions should be based on the RBCA process, rather than relying on conservative

  2. Rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Byrne, Susan

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: The population rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) is frequently reported as 10%. However, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the true population based frequency of FALS has never been performed. METHOD: A Medline literature review identified all original articles reporting a rate of FALS. Studies were grouped according to the type of data presented and examined for sources of case ascertainment. A systematic review and meta-analysis of reported rates of FALS was then conducted to facilitate comparison between studies and calculate a pooled rate of FALS. RESULTS: 38 papers reported a rate of FALS. Thirty-three papers were included in analysis and the rate of FALS for all studies was 4.6% (95% CI 3.9% to 5.5%). Restricting the analysis to prospective population based registry data revealed a rate of 5.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 6.1%). The incidence of FALS was lower in southern Europe. There was no correlation between rate of FALS and reported SOD1 mutation rates. CONCLUSION: The rate of FALS among prospective population based registries is 5.1% (CI 4.1 to 6.1%), and not 10% as is often stated. Further detailed prospective population based studies of familial ALS are required to confirm this rate.

  3. Rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Byrne, Susan

    2010-11-03

    Background The population rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) is frequently reported as 10%. However, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the true population based frequency of FALS has never been performed. Method A Medline literature review identified all original articles reporting a rate of FALS. Studies were grouped according to the type of data presented and examined for sources of case ascertainment. A systematic review and meta-analysis of reported rates of FALS was then conducted to facilitate comparison between studies and calculate a pooled rate of FALS. Results 38 papers reported a rate of FALS. Thirty-three papers were included in analysis and the rate of FALS for all studies was 4.6% (95% CI 3.9% to 5.5%). Restricting the analysis to prospective population based registry data revealed a rate of 5.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 6.1%). The incidence of FALS was lower in southern Europe. There was no correlation between rate of FALS and reported SOD1 mutation rates. Conclusion The rate of FALS among prospective population based registries is 5.1% (CI 4.1 to 6.1%), and not 10% as is often stated. Further detailed prospective population based studies of familial ALS are required to confirm this rate.

  4. The management of uncertainties in the French regulation on deep disposal: the development of a non-risk based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raimbault, P.

    2004-01-01

    The development of a safety case for disposal of high level and medium level long-lived waste in a geological formation has to handle two main difficulties: - uncertainties associated to natural systems; - uncertainties associated to the consideration of long time scales. Licensing of the different steps leading to geological disposal implies thus that a sufficient level of confidence in the safety case will be obtained, at each step, among the different stakeholders. The confidence in the safety case relies on the whole set of arguments of different natures which complement each other and build up the file. This means that, to be defensible, the safety case should be organised in such a way that it can be reviewed and scrutinized in a structured manner. This also means that individual elements of the safety case will have to be considered separately even if all elements should fit well in the integrated safety case. This segregation implies some inherent decoupling of parts of the system, of its evolution over time and of the events that may impact on it. This decoupling will thus introduce inherent uncertainties that risk or non-risk based approaches have to deal with since both approaches have to introduce transparency in the analysis. In the non-risk based or deterministic approach this segregation is pushed further in order to put into perspective the different elements of appreciation that allow to judge the safety case as a whole. The French regulation on deep disposal presented in the basic safety rule RFS III.3.f, issued in 1991, takes these points into consideration to set the basis for the safety case in the framework of a deterministic approach. This basic safety rule is currently being revised in order to clarify some concepts and to take account evolution of ideas at the national and international level. However the basic rationale behind the safety assessment methodology will remain the same. The approach presented in RFS III.2.f implies that at

  5. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  6. A completely new design and regulatory process - A risk-based approach for new nuclear power plants. Annex 17

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2002-01-01

    In the de-regulated electric power market place that is developing in the USA, competition from alternative electric power sources has provided significant downward pressure on the costs of new construction projects. Studies by the Electric Power Research Institute have shown that, in the USA, the capital cost of new nuclear plants must be decreased by at least 35% to 40% relative to the cost of Advanced Light Water Reactors designed in the early 1990s in order to be competitive with capital costs of gas-fired electric power plants. The underlying reasons for the high capital costs estimated for some nuclear plants are (1) long construction times, (2) the high level of 'defense-in-depth' or safety margin, included throughout the design and licensing process, and (3) the use of out-dated design methods and information. Probabilistic Safety Assessments are being used to develop a more accurate assessment of real plant risk and to provide relief if it can be demonstrated that plant equipment is not providing a significant contribution to plant safety. Westinghouse addressed some of these cost drivers in the development of the AP-600 passive plant design. However, because of relatively inexpensive natural gas plant alternative, we need to reduce the costs even further. Therefore, the AP-600 design is now being up-rated to a 1000 MWe design, AP-1000. The development of AP1000 is described in another paper being presented at this meeting. Westinghouse is also managing a project, sponsored by the US Department of Energy, which is aimed at developing an all-new 'risk-based' approach to design and regulation. Methodologies being developed use risk-based information to the extent practical and 'defense-in-depth' only when necessary to address uncertainties in models and equipment performance. Early results, summarized in this paper, include (1) the initial framework for a new design and regulatory process and (2) a sample design analysis which shows that the Emergency Core

  7. Risk impact of BWR technical specifications requirements during shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staple, B.D.; Kirk, H.K.; Yakle, J.

    1994-10-01

    This report presents an application of probabilistic models and risk based criteria for determining the risk impact of the Limiting Conditions of Operations (LCOs) in the Technical Specifications (TSs) of a boiling water reactor during shutdown. This analysis studied the risk impact of the current requirements of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) in eight Plant Operational States (POSs) which encompass power operations, shutdown, and refueling. This report also discusses insights concerning TS action statements

  8. Crispin: capital requirements and reinsurance protect against insolvency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispin, C

    2001-12-01

    Charles Crispin is president of Evergreen Re, a managed care consulting firm with expertise in the reinsurance industry. Before Joining Evergreen Re, Crispin served as a consultant to the managed care industry. He is a member of the American Association of Integrated Delivery Systems, Glen Allen, Virginia, and the Provider Excess Loss Association, Princeton, New Jersey. Crispin recently talked with HFM about risk-based capital requirements for health plans and the Impact these solvency guidelines could have on healthcare providers.

  9. Analisis Remaining Life dan Penjadwalan Program Inspeksi pada Pressure Vessel dengan Menggunakan Metode Risk Based Inspection (RBI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyah Arina Wahyu Lillah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Seiring perkembangan eksplorasi minyak dan gas bumi di dunia, perusahaan minyak dan gas di Indonesia juga turut berlomba-lomba untuk mendapatkan ladang minyak dan gas bumi sebanyak-banyaknya. Perkembangan ini turut dipengaruhi oleh aturan-aturan pemerintah mengenai keselamatan dan pencegahan bahaya baik pada unit yang dikelola maupun tenaga kerja pengelola. Untuk itu semua perlatan-peralatan (unit kerja harus dijamin kehandalaannya agar tidak menimbulkan bahaya baik bagi pekerja maupun lingkungan. Subjek penelitian dalam tugas akhir ini ialah pada pressure vessel yang dimiliki oleh Terminal LPG Semarang. Kemungkinan bahaya yang dapat menyebabkan kerusakan pada pressure vessel perlu dianalisis agar dapat meminimalkan resiko yang akan terjadi. Metode Risk Based Inspection (RBI diharapkan dapat meminimalkan resiko yang ada pada pressure vessel. Penilaian resiko dalam tugas akhir ini mengacu pada standar API RP 581. Untuk mengetahui besarnya resiko yang ada pada plant, maka terlebih dahulu harus dihitung besarnya probabilitas kegagalan dan konsekuensi apabila terjadi kegagalan. Langkah selanjutnya ialah membandingkan besarnya resiko yang didapat dengan target resiko yang dimiliki oleh perusahaan. Dari hasil perbandingan ini dapat diketahui tingkat resiko pressure vessel, sehingga dapat ditentukan jadwal inspeksi dan metode inspeksi yang tepat.

  10. Risk-based high-throughput chemical screening and prioritization using exposure models and in vitro bioactivity assays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Ernstoff, Alexi; Csiszar, Susan A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a risk-based high-throughput screening (HTS) method to identify chemicals for potential health concerns or for which additional information is needed. The method is applied to 180 organic chemicals as a case study. We first obtain information on how the chemical is used and identify relevant use scenarios (e.g., dermal application, indoor emissions). For each chemical and use scenario, exposure models are then used to calculate a chemical intake fraction, or a product intake fraction, accounting for chemical properties and the exposed population. We then combine these intake fractions with use scenario-specific estimates of chemical quantity to calculate daily intake rates (iR; mg/kg/day). These intake rates are compared to oral equivalent doses (OED; mg/kg/day), calculated from a suite of ToxCast in vitro bioactivity assays using in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation and reverse dosimetry. Bioactivity quotients (BQs) are calculated as iR/OED to obtain estimates of potential impact associated with each relevant use scenario. Of the 180 chemicals considered, 38 had maximum iRs exceeding minimum OEDs (i.e., BQs > 1). For most of these compounds, exposures are associated with direct intake, food/oral contact, or dermal exposure. The method provides high-throughput estimates of exposure and important input for decision makers to identify chemicals of concern for further evaluation with additional information or more refined models

  11. Risk-based approach to appraise valve closure in the clam Corbicula fluminea in response to waterborne metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, C.-M.; Jou, L.-J.; Chen, B.-C.

    2005-01-01

    We developed a risk-based approach to assess how the valve closure behavior of Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea responds to waterborne copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd). We reanalyzed the valve closure response data from published literature to reconstruct the response time-dependent dose-response profiles based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model. We integrated probabilistic exposure profiles of measured environmental Cu and Cd concentrations in the western coastal areas of Taiwan with the reconstructed dose-response relationships at different integration times of response to quantitatively estimate the valve response risk. The risk assessment results implicate exposure to waterborne Cu and Cd may pose no significant risk to clam valve activity in the short-time response periods (e.g., <30 min), yet a relative high risk for valve closure response to waterborne Cu at response times greater than 120 min is alarming. We successfully linked reconstructed dose-response profiles and EC50-time relationships associated with the fitted daily valve opening/closing rhythm characterized by a three-parameter lognormal function to predict the time-varying bivalve closure rhythm response to waterborne metals. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of future design of biological monitoring systems. - A model was developed to link valve closure in clams to concentrations of metals in water

  12. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  13. Appraisement and benchmarking of third-party logistic service provider by exploration of risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Sahu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present era, Reverse Logistics Support has monitored as a momentous realm, where stuffs are transferred from point of consumption to origin. The companies who provide the logistic equipments, i.e. Truck, Joseph Cyril Bomford, and Shipment, etc. to its partner’s firms called Third-Party Logistics (3PL service provider. Today, the feasible 3PL service provider evaluation-opt problem is yet an amorous dilemma. The appraisement and benchmarking of logistics service providers in extent of index; allied risk-based indices and their interrelated metrics; outlooked as a great tool for each international firm, in order that firm could obtain their core goals. The novelty of manuscript is that here, a hairy-based approach has been integrated and then implemented upon a novel developed multi hierarchical third-party logistics (3PL service providers appraisement index in purpose to umpire the 3PL provider for their strong and ill’s core indices. Moreover, the overall score (Si system has also been carried out for benchmarking the 3PL provider companies, where s1 has been found as the best 3PL service provider. The developed approach enabled the manager of firms to make the verdict towards the best inclusive evaluation process of 3PL performance appraisement and benchmarking. A numerical illustration has also been provided to validate the verdict support system.

  14. Contrasting the Effect of Risk- and Non Risk-Based Capital Structure on Insurers’ Performance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunday S. Akpan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Literature on capital-based regulation and performance of insurers in emerging market is not only limited; it is incomplete, particularly on a comparative basis. This has continuously attracts researchers’ interest and concerns for practitioners and policy makers. This paper therefore examines the effect of capital structure on performance of insurers comparatively before and after the implementation of risk-based capital (RBC policy in Nigeria to determine which policy regime enables insurers to perform better. Descriptive statistics are employed to describe the characteristics of the data while the hypotheses are tested using two-stage estimation procedure of fixed and random effect models. Results reveal that insurance capital structure (measured by technical provision ratio has a significant positive effect on insurance performance (measured by earnings per share and return on asset during non-RBC regime when compared to RBC regime. Based on these findings, it is concluded that insurers in Nigeria performed better under non-RBC than RBC era. This finding provides important insight to managers, regulators and investors by fostering more understanding of how to manipulate and regulate insurance capital for performance optimization under RBC scenarios.

  15. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naime, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  16. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

    2017-03-15

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  17. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. III: Evaluation using a panel of reference foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of four functional components of a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods in a concordance study. Two independent raters assigned concern levels to 20 reference GM foods using a rating form based on the proposed RBCS. The four components of evaluation were: (1) degree of concordance, (2) distribution across concern levels, (3) discriminating ability of the scheme, and (4) ease of use. At least one of the 20 reference foods was assigned to each of the possible concern levels, demonstrating the ability of the scheme to identify GM foods of different concern with respect to potential health risk. There was reasonably good concordance between the two raters for the three separate parts of the RBCS. The raters agreed that the criteria in the scheme were sufficiently clear in discriminating reference foods into different concern levels, and that with some experience, the scheme was reasonably easy to use. Specific issues and suggestions for improvements identified in the concordance study are discussed.

  18. Auxiliary feedwater system risk-based inspection guide for the Beaver Valley, Units 1 and 2 nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lloyd, R.C.; Vehec, T.A.; Moffitt, N.E.; Gore, B.F.; Vo, T.V.; Rossbach, L.W.; Sena, P.P. III

    1993-02-01

    In a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory has developed and applied a methodology for deriving plant-specific risk-based inspection guidance for the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at pressurized water reactors that have not undergone probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This methodology uses existing PRA results and plant operating experience information. Existing PRA-based inspection guidance information recently developed for the NRC for various plants was used to identify generic component failure modes. This information was then combined with plant-specific and industry-wide component information and failure data to identify failure modes and failure mechanisms for the AFW system at the selected plants. Beaver Valley Units 1 and 2 were selected as two of a series of plants for study. The product of this effort is a prioritized listing of AFW failures which have occurred at the plant and at other PWRs. This listing is intended for use by NRC inspectors in the preparation of inspection plans addressing AFW risk-important components at Beaver Valley Units 1 and 2

  19. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms - STU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M.L.; Grindon, E.; Dutton, L.M.C.; Garcia-Sedano, P.; Santamaria, C.S.; Centner, B.; Auglaire, M.; Routamo, T.; Outa, S.; Jokiniemi, J.; Gustavsson, V.; Wennerstrom, H.; Spanier, L.; Gren, M.; Boschiero, M-H; Droulas, J-L; Friederichs, H-G; Sonnenkalb, M.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this project is to address the key uncertainties associated with a number of fission product release and transport phenomena in a wider context and to assess their relevance to key severe accident sequences. This project is a wide-based analysis involving eight reactor designs that are representative of the reactors currently operating in the European Union (EU). In total, 20 accident sequences covering a wide range of conditions have been chosen to provide the basis for sensitivity studies. The appraisal is achieved through a systematic risk-based framework developed within this project. Specifically, this is a quantitative interpretation of the sensitivity calculations on the basis of 'significance indicators', applied above defined threshold values. These threshold values represent a good surrogate for 'large release', which is defined in a number of EU countries. In addition, the results are placed in the context of in-containment source term limits, for advanced light water reactor designs, as defined by international guidelines. Overall, despite the phenomenological uncertainties, the predicted source terms (both into the containment, and subsequently, into the environment) do not display a high degree of sensitivity to the individual fission product issues addressed in this project. This is due, mainly, to the substantial capacity for the attenuation of airborne fission products by the designed safety provisions and the natural fission product retention mechanisms within the containment

  20. Comparison of API 510 pressure vessels inspection planning with API 581 risk-based inspection planning approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shishesaz, Mohammad Reza; Nazarnezhad Bajestani, Mohammad; Hashemi, Seyed Javad; Shekari, Elahe

    2013-01-01

    To ensure mechanical integrity, all pressure vessels shall be inspected at the intervals provided in inspection codes or based on a risk-based inspection (RBI) assessment. The RBI assessment may allow previously established inspection intervals to be extended. This paper describes the methodology, analysis and results of two RBI studies conducted on 293 pressure vessel components in two crude oil distillation units. Based on API RBI methodology in API 581 (2008), risk target concept was used for determining inspection dates. It was shown that when thinning is the major active damage, the RBI recommended intervals are as long as twice the API 510 intervals. This paper summarizes that, as a fundamental step in the risk calculation, RBI has a more defined methodology for evaluating equipment for multiple damage mechanisms and a more defined approach to specify the use of other inspection technologies beyond the traditional visual, ultrasonic, and radiography tests. -- Highlights: • RBI calculated inspection intervals are as long as twice of API 510 inspection code. • Two case studies verified the advantage of RBI in inspection planning. • RBI is a more reliable methodology when evaluating multiple damage mechanisms. • Damage factor calculations can be used for determining RSFa value in FFS assessments