WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk-based fals requirements

  1. Pre-test calculations for FAL-19 and FAL-20 using the ITHACA code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, S.J.; Ketchell, N.

    1992-08-01

    Falcon is a small scale experimental apparatus, designed to simulate the transport of fission products through the primary circuit and containment of a nuclear power reactor under severe accident conditions. Information gained from the experiments in Falcon will be used to guide and assist in understanding the much larger Phebus-FP experiments. This report presents the results of pre-test calculations performed using ITHACA for the two tests: FAL-19 and FAL-20. Initial calculations were concerned solely with the thermal-hydraulic conditions in the containment while later ones briefly investigated the effect of the injection of an insoluble aerosol into the containment with the same thermal-hydraulic conditions. (author)

  2. Soils Project Risk-Based Corrective Action Evaluation Process with ROTC 1 and ROTC 2, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick; Sloop, Christina

    2012-04-01

    This document formally defines and clarifies the NDEP-approved process the NNSA/NSO Soils Activity uses to fulfill the requirements of the FFACO and state regulations. This process is used to establish FALs in accordance with the risk-based corrective action (RBCA) process stipulated in Chapter 445 of the Nevada Administrative Code (NAC) as described in the ASTM International (ASTM) Method E1739-95 (NAC, 2008; ASTM, 1995). It is designed to provide a set of consistent standards for chemical and radiological corrective actions.

  3. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  4. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  5. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  6. O problema da falácia naturalista para o projeto de uma ética evolucionista

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla Chediak

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Um dos problemas mais difíceis enfrentados pelos defensores de uma ética evolucionista é a falácia naturalista. Neste artigo, analisamos as soluções propostas por W. Rottschaefer e por R. Richards e verificamos não serem elas suficientes para eliminar o problema da falácia naturalista sem comprometer a especificidade da moral.One of the most difficult problems for who defends an evolutionary ethics is the naturalist fallacy. In this article, we examine the solutions proposed by W. Rottschaefer and R. Richards. We believe that these solutions are not good enough to completely eliminate the problem of the naturalist fallacy without compromising the specificity of morality.

  7. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  8. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  9. FORTUNE-TELLING IN THE SEYAHATNAME OF EVLIYA CELEBI EVLİYA ÇELEBİ SEYAHATMESİ’NDE FAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elif DÜLGER

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available According to the Turkish Folklore Archive Guide prepared in 1976by the National Folklore Research Deparment of Ministry of Culture ofthe time, which is now called the Ministry of Culture directorate generalfor research and development of folk culture, article „K‟ in the guide wasdesignated for beliefs, while the subjects of Turkish folklore was beingdetermined. In this part of the guide which was prepared based on thecategorization in hundreds, dream and fortune-telling appears in the „K700‟ category. As is understood from this information, we come across fortunetellingin the part which is designated for beliefs in folklore. Fortunetellingupon which little study is conducted is a branch of Turkishfolklore -handled in different researches- and it bears importance in thatit shows people‟s approach to supernatural powers.This study is based on assessing information related to fortunetellingwhich was recorded while giving information about various placesin Seyahatname,which is an important work as far as Turkish culturalhistory, literature and folk science is considered. The main aim of ourstudy is to include this important work of our cultural history in theresearches on fortune-telling and to form the basis for the studies that weare going to carry out on fortunetelling on which little research isconducted. 1976 yılında, şimdiki adı Kültür Bakanlığı Halk KültürleriniAraştırma ve Geliştirme Genel Müdürlüğü olan, zamanın KültürBakanlığı Millî Folklor Araştırma Dairesi Başkanlığı tarafındanhazırlanan Türk Folklor Arşiv Kılavuzuna göre Türk folklorunun konularıbelirlenirken kılavuzun “K” maddesi inanışlara ayrılmıştır. 100‟lükkodlama seviyesinde hazırlanan kılavuzun bu bölümünde “K 700”kodlamasında rüya ve fal yer almaktadır.Bu bilgilerden anlaşıldığı üzere fal, folklorun inanışlar bölümündekarşımıza çıkmaktadır. Değişik araştırmalarda ele alınan T

  10. 12 CFR 956.4 - Risk-based capital requirement for investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for investments... OFF-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK INVESTMENTS § 956.4 Risk-based capital requirement for investments. Each Bank shall hold retained earnings plus general allowance for losses as support for the...

  11. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  12. Falácia naturalista e naturalismo moral: do é ao deve mediante o quero

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Naves de Brito

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste texto é discutir alguns argumentos contra a aceitação da falácia naturalista. Pretende-se mostrar aspectos que parecem corretos na argumentação dos que recusam aquela falácia, e, a despeito de seus acertos, demonstrar que estão fundamentalmente errados. O eixo para este desfecho é a reformulação da falácia em termos da recusa da implicação entre o ser e o querer. Espera-se, assim, tornar mais claras as relações - e a ausência delas - entre verdade e moral, bem como abrir espaço para a defesa de um naturalismo moral não comprometido com a existência de fatos morais. Este texto está dividido em cinco partes. Na primeira, apresenta-se a falácia naturalista de acordo com Moore; na segunda, distingue-se essa entre as formulações de Moore e de Hume; na terceira, apresentam-se objeções à interdição da passagem do "é" ao "deve" e se formulam respostas a essas objeções; na quarta, reapresenta-se o problema da interdição entre "é" e "deve" e se focaliza uma solução alternativa a ele mediante o querer; e, finalmente, na quinta parte, elaboram-se algumas conclusões acerca do naturalismo e do realismo na moral.This article aims to discuss some arguments against the acceptance of the naturalistic fallacy. It intends to demonstrate that some aspects, which seem to be correct in the argumentation of those who refuse that fallacy, are, despite their pertinence in some points, fundamentally imprecise. In order to reach this outcome, the fallacy is reformulated in terms of the refuse of the implication between "being" and "the will". Therefore, it pretends to clarify the relations - and their absence - between truth and morality as well as enable a defense of a moral naturalism disengaged from the existence of moral facts. This text is divided in five parts. In the first one, I show the naturalistic fallacy according to Moore; in the second part, a distinction between Moore's and Hume's formulations of the

  13. A molecular chaperone activity of CCS restores the maturation of SOD1 fALS mutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchinat, Enrico; Barbieri, Letizia; Banci, Lucia

    2017-12-12

    Superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) is an important metalloprotein for cellular oxidative stress defence, that is mutated in familiar variants of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (fALS). Some mutations destabilize the apo protein, leading to the formation of misfolded, toxic species. The Copper Chaperone for SOD1 (CCS) transiently interacts with SOD1 and promotes its correct maturation by transferring copper and catalyzing disulfide bond formation. By in vitro and in-cell NMR, we investigated the role of the SOD-like domain of CCS (CCS-D2). We showed that CCS-D2 forms a stable complex with zinc-bound SOD1 in human cells, that has a twofold stabilizing effect: it both prevents the accumulation of unstructured mutant SOD1 and promotes zinc binding. We further showed that CCS-D2 interacts with apo-SOD1 in vitro, suggesting that in cells CCS stabilizes mutant apo-SOD1 prior to zinc binding. Such molecular chaperone function of CCS-D2 is novel and its implications in SOD-linked fALS deserve further investigation.

  14. 12 CFR 955.6 - Risk-based capital requirement for acquired member assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... losses as support for the credit risk of all AMA estimated by the Bank to represent a credit risk that is...) Recalculation of credit enhancement. For risk-based capital purposes, each Bank shall recalculate the estimated... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for acquired...

  15. Effect of CCS on the accumulation of FALS SOD1 mutant-containing aggregates and on mitochondrial translocation of SOD1 mutants: implication of a free radical hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ha Kun; Chung, Youn Wook; Chock, P Boon; Yim, Moon B

    2011-05-15

    Missense mutations of SOD1 are linked to familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) through a yet-to-be identified toxic-gain-of-function. One of the proposed mechanisms involves enhanced aggregate formation. However, a recent study showed that dual transgenic mice overexpressing both G93A and CCS copper chaperone (G93A/CCS) exhibit no SOD1-positive aggregates yet show accelerated FALS symptoms with enhanced mitochondrial pathology compared to G93A mice. Using a dicistronic mRNA to simultaneously generate hSOD1 mutants, G93A, A4V and G85R, and hCCS in AAV293 cells, we revealed: (i) CCS is degraded primarily via a macroautophagy pathway. It forms a stable heterodimer with inactive G85R, and via its novel copper chaperone-independent molecular chaperone activity facilitates G85R degradation via a macroautophagy-mediated pathway. For active G93A and A4V, CCS catalyzes their maturation to form active and soluble homodimers. (ii) CCS reduces, under non-oxidative conditions, yet facilitates in the presence of H(2)O(2), mitochondrial translocation of inactive SOD1 mutants. These results, together with previous reports showing FALS SOD1 mutants enhanced free radical-generating activity, provide a mechanistic explanation for the observations with G93A/CCS dual transgenic mice and suggest that free radical generation by FALS SOD1, enhanced by CCS, may, in part, be responsible for the FALS SOD1 mutant-linked aggregation, mitochondrial translocation, and degradation. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Conseqüências da falência de um Estado: pirataria nas águas da Somália

    OpenAIRE

    FARID ZAGO, EVANDRO; KORAI PINHEIRO MINILLO, XAMAN

    2008-01-01

    Anos de falência estatal culminam no

    desenvolvimento, na costa da Somália, do maior pólo

    de pirataria do mundo.

  17. Conseqüências da falência de um Estado: pirataria nas águas da Somália

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EVANDRO FARID ZAGO

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available

    Anos de falência estatal culminam no

    desenvolvimento, na costa da Somália, do maior pólo

    de pirataria do mundo.

  18. Risk based maintenance: Resource requirements and organizational challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerakkody, S.D.

    2000-01-01

    10CFR50.65 'Requirements for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants' required licensees to monitor the performance or condition of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) against licensee established goals, in a manner sufficient to provide reasonable assurance that such SSCs are capable of fulfilling their intended functions. The goals were required to be commensurate with safety significance and operating experience. Northeast Utilities relied upon PRAs to implement 10CFR50.65, which is also referred to as the 'Maintenance Rule'. The Maintenance Rule changed some aspects of maintenance of structures, systems, and components (SSC) at nuclear power plants. One objective of the rule was to focus the maintenance resources based on risk significance of components. This paper will discuss the organizational challenges and resource requirements associated with implementation of the Maintenance Rule at nuclear facilities that are supported by the Northeast Utilities Services Company (NUSCo). The paper will discuss (a) how these challenges were addressed, (b) the resources required for ongoing efforts to support the Maintenance Rule, and (c) several key safety benefits derived from the implementation of the Maintenance Rule. (author)

  19. Rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Byrne, Susan

    2010-11-03

    Background The population rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) is frequently reported as 10%. However, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the true population based frequency of FALS has never been performed. Method A Medline literature review identified all original articles reporting a rate of FALS. Studies were grouped according to the type of data presented and examined for sources of case ascertainment. A systematic review and meta-analysis of reported rates of FALS was then conducted to facilitate comparison between studies and calculate a pooled rate of FALS. Results 38 papers reported a rate of FALS. Thirty-three papers were included in analysis and the rate of FALS for all studies was 4.6% (95% CI 3.9% to 5.5%). Restricting the analysis to prospective population based registry data revealed a rate of 5.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 6.1%). The incidence of FALS was lower in southern Europe. There was no correlation between rate of FALS and reported SOD1 mutation rates. Conclusion The rate of FALS among prospective population based registries is 5.1% (CI 4.1 to 6.1%), and not 10% as is often stated. Further detailed prospective population based studies of familial ALS are required to confirm this rate.

  20. Rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Byrne, Susan

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: The population rate of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) is frequently reported as 10%. However, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the true population based frequency of FALS has never been performed. METHOD: A Medline literature review identified all original articles reporting a rate of FALS. Studies were grouped according to the type of data presented and examined for sources of case ascertainment. A systematic review and meta-analysis of reported rates of FALS was then conducted to facilitate comparison between studies and calculate a pooled rate of FALS. RESULTS: 38 papers reported a rate of FALS. Thirty-three papers were included in analysis and the rate of FALS for all studies was 4.6% (95% CI 3.9% to 5.5%). Restricting the analysis to prospective population based registry data revealed a rate of 5.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 6.1%). The incidence of FALS was lower in southern Europe. There was no correlation between rate of FALS and reported SOD1 mutation rates. CONCLUSION: The rate of FALS among prospective population based registries is 5.1% (CI 4.1 to 6.1%), and not 10% as is often stated. Further detailed prospective population based studies of familial ALS are required to confirm this rate.

  1. Uma estimativa do custo de subordinação da dívida financeira estabelecida pela atual lei de falência

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Securato

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar o impacto no custo de endividamento das empresas devido à ordem de prioridade de pagamento das dívidas corporativas em caso de falência. A nova Lei de Falência em tramitação no Congresso Nacional, Projeto de Lei 4.376, define a ordem de classificação dos créditos na falência pelo artigo 83. A atual Lei de Falência estabelece que as dívidas trabalhistas, previdenciárias e tributárias possuem prioridade de pagamento às demais dívidas. Entende-se, portanto, que existe uma subordinação das dívidas contratadas junto aos bancos e investidores com relação aos passivos prioritários. Este estudo estima o custo de subordinação do passivo financeiro - empréstimos e financiamentos - aos passivos com preferência de pagamento. Primeiro, obteve-se evidência a favor do modelo de precificação, através da comparação do valor do passivo obtido pela aplicação do modelo com o valor de mercado, e finalmente, calculou-se uma média de 0,30%a.a. de custo de subordinação dos passivos financeiros.This paper studies the debt cost effect caused by the payment order when liquidating its liabilities in case of corporate bankruptcy established by the current Bankruptcy Legislation. The new Bankruptcy Legislation under discussion at the Brazilian Congress, Law project 4.376, defines the liability ranking order in case of Bankruptcy in article 86. The current Brazilian bankruptcy regulation defines that employee, social security and fiscal liabilities must be settled before other liabilities such as asset backed debt securities, suppliers and loans. Therefore, there is a subordination of financial liabilities - loans and financing contracted with banks and investors compared to those liabilities with liquidation priority. This research estimates the cost of subordination of financial liabilities. First, we applied the binomial model to estimate the present value of corporate liabilities and its

  2. Hipotermia terapêutica como ponte até transplante em pacientes com falência hepática fulminante

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Castillo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Os tópicos mais importantes na falência hepática fulminante são o edema cerebral e a hipertensão intracraniana. Dentre todas as opções terapêuticas, tem sido relatado que a hipotermia sistêmica induzida em níveis entre 33 - 34ºC reduz a elevação da pressão e aumenta o tempo durante o qual os pacientes podem tolerar um enxerto. Esta revisão discutiu as indicações e os efeitos adversos da hipotermia.

  3. Falência é fracasso? O caso da Associação dos Produtores Alternativos de Ouro Preto do Oeste, Rondônia, Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Kohler

    Full Text Available O artigo examina a falência da Associação dos Produtores Alternativos (APA de Ouro Preto do Oeste, em Rondônia, buscando identificar elementos estruturantes e explicativos das relações entre atores locais e evidenciando seus próprios quadros interpretativos. A partir de um breve histórico da implantação do Projeto Integrado de Colonização (PIC Ouro Preto do Oeste, são destacadas a origem social dos colonos, sua cultura política e o tipo de capital social construído nos assentamentos. Por outro lado, apresenta-se a lógica das instituições envolvidas no desenvolvimento desse projeto. As relações entre os diversos atores institucionais são apresentadas como uma rede multiconectada, unindo os níveis local, regional, nacional e internacional. A análise mostra o descompasso entre a visão econômica das instituições de apoio, voltadas para a produção, e as aspirações dos produtores da APA. Ao final, concluímos que a falência pode estar associada a dois fatores interligados: a 'desconfiança' dos produtores da APA em relação aos órgãos de apoio à agricultura familiar (Comissão Executiva do Plano da Lavoura Cacaueira, Agência de Defesa Sanitária Agrosilvopastoril do Estado de Rondônia, Empresa de Assistência Técnica e Extensão Rural e a ausência dos governos estadual e municipal no grupo de atores do sistema de redes multiconectadas, no qual poderiam ter desempenhado um papel de mediadores entre aquelas diferentes aspirações. Finalmente, a questão colocada relativiza a noção de 'fracasso' associada à falência.

  4. Advantages and disadvantages of a risk - based regulatory requirement (the experience in Argentina)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, Jorge

    2006-01-01

    Argentina has its own nuclear regulations, which include a risk-based criterion curve for the licensing of nuclear installations. This requirement, established in the early '70s, must be fulfilled with a PSA study. It has been applied to several installations, and the advantages and disadvantages of this approach are discussed in the paper through several examples. The main disadvantage is a somehow large amount of PSA work that needs to be performed for the licensing of a nuclear installation. The main advantage is the effective risk reduction that can be achieved by retrofitting the risk-based lessons learned into the design teams (not only for design of systems and components, but also for design of operation, testing and maintenance schemes). (author)

  5. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  6. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  7. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  8. RiskREP : risk-based security requirements elicitation and prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, A.; Morali, A.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement "good-enough security" but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  9. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  10. CIEMAT contribution to the international standard problem ISP-34: contain analysis of FAL-ISP 1 test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L.E.; Polo, J.

    1994-01-01

    CIEMAT, along with a great number of international laboratories, has participated in the open exercise of the first International Standard Problem addressing fission product transport issues. The FAL-ISP 1, aimed to study particle agglomeration, has been simulated with CONTAIN code. The thermalhydraulic results obtained have been satisfactory and aerosols ones have been reasonably accurate. However, some discrepancies appeared between predictions and experimental data; these are essentially related to the injection phase of the experiment, where the major influence of input approximations took place. In addition, the rationalization of discrepancies pointed potential data inconsistencies. Some parametric studies showed the results sensitivity to input assumptions concerning aerosol characterization and default values in CONTAIN; in general, they confirmed the suitability of most of the approximations taken. (Author)

  11. German Risk Study - influences of data base, minimal requirements and system modifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoertner, H.; Linden, J. von

    1987-01-01

    The reliability analyses for Phase B of the German Risk Study taken into account an improved reliability data base, best-estimate minimal requirements for the relevant system functions and the design modifications, which have been carried out after completion of Phase A. These points and their influence on the frequency of core melt accidents are discussed, emphasizing the reliability data. Although the detailed evaluation of operating experience for the estimation of the reliability data does result in an increase of contributions, the best-estimate minimal requirements and the system modifications carried out for the reference plant reduce the core melt frequency due to those initiating events which were dominant in Phase A of the German Risk Study. The detailed investigation of additional initiating events which had already been recognized as important during Phase A leads to additional contributions to the frequency of core melt accidents. Such initiating events are the main steam line break and the steam generator tube rupture and altogether, the evaluated contributions to the frequency of core melt are lower than the values assessed in Phase A. (orig./HP)

  12. Ciemat Contribution to The International Standard Problem ISP-34: Contain Analysis of Fal-ISP 1 Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L. E.; Polo, J.

    1994-01-01

    CIEMAT, along with a great number of international laboratories, has participated in the open exercise of the first International Standard Problem addressing fission product transport issues. The FAL-ISP 1, aimed to study particle agglomeration, has been simulated with CONTAIN code. The therma hydraulic results obtained have been satisfactory and aerosol ones have been reasonably accurate. However, some discrepancies appeared between predictions and experimental data; these are essentially related to the injection phase of the experiment, where the major influence of input approximations took place. In addition, the rationalization of discrepancies pointed potential data inconsistencies. Some parametric studies showed the results sensitivity to input assumptions concerning aerosol characterization and default values in CONTAIN; in general, they confirmed the suitability of most of the approximations taken. (Author) 11 refs

  13. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  14. Análise quantitativa do processo de erosão/deposição nas falésias da APA Tambaba e sua ocupação nos limites da APP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís Regina Benevides Trigueiro Aranha

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available O litoral brasileiro é banhado pelo Oceano Atlântico e composto por diversas paisagens ao longo da costa. Entre elas encontram-se as falésias, que, por sua beleza, atraem a exploração turística o que, muitas vezes, compromete seu equilíbrio. Com a finalidade de proteger o meio ambiente das ações antrópicas, o poder público vem criando áreas para preservar e/ou conservar o meio ambiente, entre elas existem as APA e as APP. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi analisar a variabilidade espaço-temporal da linha de ruptura do relevo, na borda das falésias da APA Tambaba, entre os anos de 1985 e 2012; e identificar a existência de edificações dentro da APP no ano de 2012. Para tanto, foram utilizadas imagens do satélite Quickbird de 2012, do satélite IKONOS II de 2005 e fotos aéreas de 1985 para delimitação das linhas das falésias; o DSAS, que é uma extensão gratuita do ArcGIS, para obtenção de taxas de variação da linha de ruptura do relevo; e o software ArcGIS para delimitação e análise das APP. Como resultados, foram identificadas variações no movimento das linhas estudadas, tanto para erosão como para deposição nas falésias da APA Tambaba. No maior trecho da APA obteve-se uma média de -0,17m/ano para erosão e de 0,49m/ano para deposição, já no menor trecho a média de erosão foi -0,38m/ano e de deposição 0,14m/ano. Foi comprovada a existência de edificações irregulares correspondente a 22.818,91 m², o que equivale a aproximadamente 3% da área total da APP.

  15. Liver disease associated with intestinal failure in the small bowel syndrome Doença hepática associada à falência intestinal na síndrome do intestino curto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Kemp

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of the Total Parenteral Nutrition (TPN has given rise to a new hope in the treatment of intestinal failure (LF associated with the Short Bowel Syndrome (SBS. However, together with the TPN and the increase of survival of these patients, new problems and questions have emerged, as well as new therapeutical procedures. Taking into consideration this emerging reality, this paper has the purpose to undertake a review of current concepts and available treatments for patients with IF associated-liver disease. Although TPN provides an increase of survival of patients with intestinal failure, it is a potential source of complication such as: septicemia, hyperglycemia, venous thrombosis and liver disease. There are several hypothesis conceived to explain the liver disease associated to intestinal failure, however the only definite treatment as a potential to reverse the non-cirrhotic liver disease is the small intestine transplantation. Despite indications for intestine transplantation are not entirely defined in literature, the trend is its early indication in high-risk patients, preserving the liver integrity and preventing the eventual need of both liver and intestine transplantations altogether.A introdução da Nutrição Parenteral Total (NPT despertou uma nova esperança para o tratamento da falência intestina (FI associada a Síndrome do Intestino Curto (SIC. No entanto, junto com a NPT e o aumento da sobrevida destes pacientes, novos problemas e perguntas emergiram, assim como novas terapêuticas. Tendo em vista esta realidade emergente, o intuito deste artigo é realizar uma revisão dos conceitos atuais e dos tratamentos disponíveis para pacientes com doença hepática associada a FI. A NPT apesar de proporcionar aumento da sobrevida nos pacientes com falência intestinal é fonte potencial de complicações, como: septicemia, hiperglicemia, trombose venosa e doença hepática. Diversas são as hipóteses aventadas para

  16. Non-invasive glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor imaging in pancreas with (18)F-Al labeled Cys(39)-exendin-4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Baoming; Xu, Yuping; Pan, Donghui; Wang, Lizhen; Yang, Runlin; Yu, Chunjing; Wan, Weixing; Wu, Yiwei; Yang, Min

    2016-02-26

    Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) is abundantly expressed on beta cells and may be an ideal target for the pancreas imaging. Monitoring the GLP-1R of pancreas could be benefit for understanding the pathophysiology of diabetes. In the present study, (18)F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog, (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4, was evaluated for PET imaging GLP-1R in the pancreas. The targeting of (18)F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog was examined in healthy and streptozotocin induced diabetic rats. Rats were injected with (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4 and microPET imaging was performed at 1 h postinjection, followed by ex vivo biodistribution. GLP-1R expression in pancreas was determined through post mortern examinations. The pancreas of healthy rats was readily visualized after administration of (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4, whereas the pancreas of diabetic rats, as well as those from rats co-injected with excess of unlabeled peptides, was barely visible by microPET. At 60 min postinjection, the pancreatic uptakes were 1.02 ± 0.15%ID/g and 0.23 ± 0.05%ID/g in healthy and diabetic rats respectively. Under block, the pancreatic uptakes of non-diabetic rats reduced to 0.21 ± 0.07%ID/g at the same time point. Biodistribution data and IHC staining confirmed the findings of the microPET imaging. The favorable preclinical data indicated that (18)F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys(39)-exendin-4may be suitable for non-invasive monitoring functional pancreatic beta cells. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Sul concetto di ‘accessibilità’: l’esperienza dell’Unità di ricerca FAL del DIDA-Unifi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuela Morelli

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility is a complex issue that also concerns the fruition of the public space of the city, but in Italy it is presented mainly as yet another aseptic technical-normative requisite to satisfy. The UdR FAL of DIDA born with the intention to widen this term and to spread a new cultural approach in which “accessibility habitat” is transformed into “a great resource for the collective human empowerment, to make it viable, safe and cohesive local communities, for the development of the architectural and landscape heritage”. Or rather “it indicates the ability of a habitat to ensure an independent life to every person, regardless of age, gender, cultural background and the physical, sensory and cognitive”.

  18. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  19. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  20. Réquiem para un cóndor ciego: Juan Lavalle según la visión estetizada de la dupla Sabato-Falú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Mamani

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo indaga las estrategias desplegadas por Ernesto Sabato para la difusión de su particular visión de la historia argentina, especialmente de la controvertida figura del general Juan Lavalle. El deseo de terciar en el campo intelectual y político lo llevó a ensayar diversas formas de participación en los combates por la reinterpretación del pasado. Romance de la Muerte de Juan Lavalle, obra poético-musical realizada en colaboración con el músico folclórico Eduardo Falú, es abordada con la intención de analizar la construcción de discursos acerca del pasado desde ámbitos historiográficos no tradicionalesThis article inquires about the strategies suggested by Ernesto Sabato for the diffusion of his point of view about argentinean history and in special, general Juan Lavalle’s life. The author, in his will of participating in the intellectual and political field, essayed to diverse forms of participation in its re-interpretation of past. His piece of work entitled Romance de la Muerte de Juan Lavalle has been written in collaboration with native music composer Eduardo Falú. My intention is to remark some of the quarrels which took place in the field of "memories" in the purpose of analyze the construction of the differents discourses about past from non traditional historical enclosures

  1. Risk-informing special treatment requirements for reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenna, E.M.; Reed, T.A.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing to make regulatory changes to the scope of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) requiring special treatment. ''Special treatment requirements'' refers to those specific examples of regulations that are applied in order to provide a high degree of assurance that SSC will be capable of performing their intended functions when needed. The current scope of SSCs covered by the special treatment requirements governing commercial nuclear reactors is deterministically based and stems primarily from the evaluation of selected design basis events, as described in updated final safety analysis reports (UFSARs). This regulatory framework provides reasonable assurance of no undue risk to the health and safety of the public. However, recent advances in technology, coupled with operating reactor experience, have suggested that an alternative approach that would use a risk-informed process for evaluating SSC safety significance, would, in turn, result in a more focused determination of which SSCs should receive special treatment requirements. (author)

  2. Non-invasive glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor imaging in pancreas with {sup 18}F-Al labeled Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mi, Baoming [Department of Nuclear Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215006 (China); Department of Nuclear Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University (Wuxi 4th People' s Hospital), Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214062 (China); Xu, Yuping [Key Laboratory of Nuclear Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214063 (China); Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029 (China); Pan, Donghui; Wang, Lizhen; Yang, Runlin [Key Laboratory of Nuclear Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214063 (China); Yu, Chunjing; Wan, Weixing [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University (Wuxi 4th People' s Hospital), Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214062 (China); Wu, Yiwei, E-mail: wuyiwei3988@gmail.com [Department of Nuclear Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215006 (China); Yang, Min, E-mail: ymzfk@yahoo.com.hk [Key Laboratory of Nuclear Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214063 (China); Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029 (China)

    2016-02-26

    Purpose: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) is abundantly expressed on beta cells and may be an ideal target for the pancreas imaging. Monitoring the GLP-1R of pancreas could be benefit for understanding the pathophysiology of diabetes. In the present study, {sup 18}F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog, {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4, was evaluated for PET imaging GLP-1R in the pancreas. Methods: The targeting of {sup 18}F-Al labeled exendin-4 analog was examined in healthy and streptozotocin induced diabetic rats. Rats were injected with {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4 and microPET imaging was performed at 1 h postinjection, followed by ex vivo biodistribution. GLP-1R expression in pancreas was determined through post mortern examinations. Results: The pancreas of healthy rats was readily visualized after administration of {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4, whereas the pancreas of diabetic rats, as well as those from rats co-injected with excess of unlabeled peptides, was barely visible by microPET. At 60 min postinjection, the pancreatic uptakes were 1.02 ± 0.15%ID/g and 0.23 ± 0.05%ID/g in healthy and diabetic rats respectively. Under block, the pancreatic uptakes of non-diabetic rats reduced to 0.21 ± 0.07%ID/g at the same time point. Biodistribution data and IHC staining confirmed the findings of the microPET imaging. Conclusion: The favorable preclinical data indicated that {sup 18}F-Al-NOTA-MAL-Cys{sup 39}-exendin-4may be suitable for non-invasive monitoring functional pancreatic beta cells.

  3. Falácias acadêmicas, 15: o modo repetitivo de produção do marxismo vulgar no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto Almeida

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Descrição do fenômeno da degeneração do marxismo em universidades brasileiras, mediante o acúmulo de pastiches de má qualidade da obra original, o que resulta na emergência de um “modo repetitivo de produção”, consistindo na assemblagem de slogans derivados da fonte inicial, mas sem qualquer conexão com a realidade do mundo corrente. Exposição das falácias mais comuns nesse tipo de vulgarização, que constitui uma contrafação do verdadeiro marxismo.

  4. Risk based definition of TS requirements for NPPs with WWER-1000 type reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morozov, V.; Tokmachev, G.

    2000-01-01

    The main regulations in safety related maintenance for NPPs in Russia are defined as a part of Technical Specifications (TSs). It includes limiting conditions for operation (surveillance requirements, allowed outage time, et.). In Russian practice the two levels of TSs are presented: general TSs that have been established as a master documents for similar designed NPPs and plant specific based on operation practice of each NPP unit. This paper presents a brief review of submissions to TS changes for NPPs with WWER type reactor were issued by AEP PSA team since 1988 year. Besides it provides an approach allows to estimate the complex affect on plant risk for both Limiting Conditions of Operation (LCO) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STI) based on relevant probabilistic tool (Minimal Cut Sets method and Marcov Chains methods). (author)

  5. Allergic asthma is associated with increased risk of infections requiring antibiotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woehlk, Christian; von Bülow, Anna; Kriegbaum, Margit

    2018-01-01

    : To investigate allergy as a risk factor for respiratory infections requiring antibiotics based on register data from a nationwide population of patients with asthma. METHODS: A register-based prospective follow-up study was performed using the Danish prescription database. In the inclusion period from 2010......BACKGROUND: Viral infection and allergy have been identified as major risk factors for exacerbation in asthma, especially in the presence of both. However, whether patients with allergic asthma are more susceptible to respiratory infections requiring antibiotics remains unknown. OBJECTIVE...... asthma was associated with an increased risk of filling at least 2 antibiotic prescriptions per year compared with nonallergic asthma (odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.24-1.33, P effect of immunotherapy against the risk...

  6. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  7. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF SOME COPPER BASED FUNGICIDES ACCORDING TO THE REQUIREMENTS OF GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marga GRĂDILĂ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents data demonstrating the functionality of biological systems reconstituted with aquatic organisms developed under Good Laboratory Practice testing facility within Research - Development Institute for Plant Protection Bucharest for environmental risk assessment of four fungicides based on copper, according to Good Laboratory Practice requirements. For risk assessment, according to GLP were made the following steps: Good Laboratory Practice test facility was established, we have ensured adequate space for growth, acclimatization and testing for each test species, it was installed a complex water production instalation needed to perform tests, it was achieved control system for checking environmental conditions and have developed specific operating procedures that have been accredited according to Good Laboratory Practice.The results showed that biological systems model of the Good Laboratory Practice test facility in Research - Development Institute for Plant Protection meet the requirements of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Guidelines regarding GLP, and after testing copper-based fungicides in terms of acute toxicity Cyprinus carpio and to Daphnia magna revealed that three of them (copper oxychloride, copper hydroxide and copper sulphate showed ecological efficiency, ie low toxicity. Metallic copper based fungicides showed a higher toxicity, resulting in fish toxicity symptoms: sleep, sudden immersion, faded, weakness, swimming in spiral, lack of balance, breathing slow and cumbersome, spasms and mortality.

  8. Risk impact of BWR technical specifications requirements during shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staple, B.D.; Kirk, H.K.; Yakle, J.

    1994-10-01

    This report presents an application of probabilistic models and risk based criteria for determining the risk impact of the Limiting Conditions of Operations (LCOs) in the Technical Specifications (TSs) of a boiling water reactor during shutdown. This analysis studied the risk impact of the current requirements of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) in eight Plant Operational States (POSs) which encompass power operations, shutdown, and refueling. This report also discusses insights concerning TS action statements

  9. 12 CFR 932.4 - Credit risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk capital requirement. 932.4 Section... CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.4 Credit risk capital requirement. (a) General requirement. Each Bank's credit risk capital requirement shall be equal to the sum of the Bank's...

  10. 12 CFR 932.6 - Operations risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... operations risk capital requirement shall at all times equal 30 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk... percent but no less than 10 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk capital requirement and market... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Operations risk capital requirement. 932.6...

  11. Proposed rulemaking to risk-inform special treatment requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, Timothy A.; McKenna, Eileen M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the status of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rulemaking efforts to risk-inform special treatment requirements that reside in Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR Part 21, Part 50, and Part 100. The staff has prepared a proposed rulemaking to add a new section to 10 CFR Part 50 to provide an alternative set of requirements for treatment of structures, systems and components (SSCs), using a risk-informed categorization process to determine safety significance of the SSCs. These requirements can be voluntarily adopted by light-water reactor licensees and applicants. The proposed rule is based upon extensive interactions with stakeholders (including consideration of public comments on draft rule language made available on the NRC rulemaking web site), experience with pilot plants, and guidance development activities. The NRC staff expects that stakeholder input provided in response to the proposed rule issuance will be valuable and support the efforts to issue the final rule. (author)

  12. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations

  13. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Vesely, W.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations.

  14. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

  15. Evaluation of cement treated base courses : technical assistance report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-12-01

    The objectives of this project are to determine the strength characteristics of soil cement bases that were constructed under stabilized procedures (DOTD TR 432M/432-99) and the cement treated design philosophy. This was accomplished by using the Fal...

  16. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under a...

  17. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  18. 12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... estimates the market value of the Bank's assets and liabilities, off-balance sheet items, and derivative... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Market risk capital requirement. 932.5 Section... CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.5 Market risk capital requirement. (a...

  19. Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

    1991-08-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  20. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  1. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  2. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  3. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  4. Proposing an Evidence-Based Strategy for Software Requirements Engineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindoerfer, Doris; Mansmann, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses an evidence-based approach to software requirements engineering. The approach is called evidence-based, since it uses publications on the specific problem as a surrogate for stakeholder interests, to formulate risks and testing experiences. This complements the idea that agile software development models are more relevant, in which requirements and solutions evolve through collaboration between self-organizing cross-functional teams. The strategy is exemplified and applied to the development of a Software Requirements list used to develop software systems for patient registries.

  5. Risk-based Strategy to Determine Testing Requirement for the Removal of Residual Process Reagents as Process-related Impurities in Bioprocesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jinshu; Li, Kim; Miller, Karen; Raghani, Anil

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to recommend a risk-based strategy for determining clearance testing requirements of the process reagents used in manufacturing biopharmaceutical products. The strategy takes account of four risk factors. Firstly, the process reagents are classified into two categories according to their safety profile and history of use: generally recognized as safe (GRAS) and potential safety concern (PSC) reagents. The clearance testing of GRAS reagents can be eliminated because of their safe use historically and process capability to remove these reagents. An estimated safety margin (Se) value, a ratio of the exposure limit to the estimated maximum reagent amount, is then used to evaluate the necessity for testing the PSC reagents at an early development stage. The Se value is calculated from two risk factors, the starting PSC reagent amount per maximum product dose (Me), and the exposure limit (Le). A worst-case scenario is assumed to estimate the Me value, that is common. The PSC reagent of interest is co-purified with the product and no clearance occurs throughout the entire purification process. No clearance testing is required for this PSC reagent if its Se value is ≥1; otherwise clearance testing is needed. Finally, the point of the process reagent introduction to the process is also considered in determining the necessity of the clearance testing for process reagents. How to use the measured safety margin as a criterion for determining PSC reagent testing at process characterization, process validation, and commercial production stages are also described. A large number of process reagents are used in the biopharmaceutical manufacturing to control the process performance. Clearance testing for all of the process reagents will be an enormous analytical task. In this article, a risk-based strategy is described to eliminate unnecessary clearance testing for majority of the process reagents using four risk factors. The risk factors included

  6. 76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-15

    ... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

  7. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  8. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  9. PSA requirements for use in the safety management. Risk based indicators and the configurational control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show the role of the risk based indicators- namely the core damage frequency (CDFI), the core damage probability indicators (CDPI) and the importance of the equipment together- in the risk based configuration control. 1 fig

  10. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  11. Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 482: Area 15 U15a/e Muckpiles and Ponds Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NSTec Environmental Restoration

    2009-09-30

    This Corrective Action Decision Document /Closure Report (CADD/CR) was prepared by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 482 U15a/e Muckpiles and Ponds. This CADD/CR is consistent with the requirements of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order agreed to by the State of Nevada, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Department of Defense. Corrective Action Unit 482 is comprised of three Corrective Action Sites (CASs) and one adjacent area: CAS 15-06-01, U15e Muckpile; CAS 15-06-02, U15a Muckpile; CAS 15-38-01, Area 15 U15a/e Ponds; and Drainage below the U15a Muckpile. The purpose of this CADD/CR is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation for closure with no further corrective action, by placing use restrictions on the three CASs and the adjacent area of CAU 482. To support this recommendation, a corrective action investigation (CAI) was performed in September 2002. The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill the following data needs as defined during the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process: (1) Determine whether contaminants of concern (COCs) are present. (2) If COCs are present, determine their nature and extent. (3) Provide sufficient information and data to determine appropriate corrective actions. The CAU 482 dataset from the CAI was evaluated based on the data quality indicator parameters. This evaluation demonstrated the quality and acceptability of the dataset for use in fulfilling the DQO data needs. Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against final action levels (FALs) established in this document. Tier 2 FALS were determined for the hazardous constituents of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH)-diesel-range organics (DRO) and the radionuclides americium (Am)-241, cesium (Cs)-137, plutonium (Pu)-238, and Pu-239. The Tier 2 FALs were calculated for the radionuclides using site-specific information. The hazardous constituents of TPH-DRO were compared to the PALs

  12. Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 482: Area 15 U15a/e Muckpiles and Ponds Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This Corrective Action Decision Document /Closure Report (CADD/CR) was prepared by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 482 U15a/e Muckpiles and Ponds. This CADD/CR is consistent with the requirements of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order agreed to by the State of Nevada, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Department of Defense. Corrective Action Unit 482 is comprised of three Corrective Action Sites (CASs) and one adjacent area: CAS 15-06-01, U15e Muckpile; CAS 15-06-02, U15a Muckpile; CAS 15-38-01, Area 15 U15a/e Ponds; and Drainage below the U15a Muckpile. The purpose of this CADD/CR is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation for closure with no further corrective action, by placing use restrictions on the three CASs and the adjacent area of CAU 482. To support this recommendation, a corrective action investigation (CAI) was performed in September 2002. The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill the following data needs as defined during the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process: (1) Determine whether contaminants of concern (COCs) are present. (2) If COCs are present, determine their nature and extent. (3) Provide sufficient information and data to determine appropriate corrective actions. The CAU 482 dataset from the CAI was evaluated based on the data quality indicator parameters. This evaluation demonstrated the quality and acceptability of the dataset for use in fulfilling the DQO data needs. Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against final action levels (FALs) established in this document. Tier 2 FALS were determined for the hazardous constituents of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH)-diesel-range organics (DRO) and the radionuclides americium (Am)-241, cesium (Cs)-137, plutonium (Pu)-238, and Pu-239. The Tier 2 FALs were calculated for the radionuclides using site-specific information. The hazardous constituents of TPH-DRO were compared to the PALs

  13. 12 CFR 955.3 - Required credit risk-sharing structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required credit risk-sharing structure. 955.3...-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS ACQUIRED MEMBER ASSETS § 955.3 Required credit risk-sharing structure. (a... conducting a rating review of the asset or pool of assets in a securitization transaction. (b) Credit risk...

  14. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  15. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  16. 76 FR 3697 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-20

    ... Part II Commodity Futures Trading Commission 17 CFR Part 39 Risk Management Requirements for... RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations AGENCY: Commodity... (Participant and Product Eligibility), D (Risk Management), E (Settlement Procedures), F (Treatment of Funds...

  17. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  18. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  19. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

  20. 12 CFR 652.100 - Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Audit of the risk-based capital stress test... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Risk-Based Capital Requirements § 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test. You must have a qualified, independent external auditor review...

  1. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  2. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-01-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

  3. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  4. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  5. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  6. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  7. 75 FR 82317 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-30

    ... leverage or risk-based capital requirements in effect for insured depository institutions as of the date of..., sections 171(b)(1) and (2) specify that the minimum leverage and risk- based capital requirements...)(1) and (2) specify that the Federal banking agencies may not establish leverage or risk-based...

  8. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  9. Risk Factors for Uterine Atony/Postpartum Hemorrhage Requiring Treatment after Vaginal Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetta, Luisa A; Szychowski, Jeff M; Seals, Ms. Samantha; Mancuso, Melissa S; Biggio, Joseph R; Tita, Alan TN

    2013-01-01

    Objective To identify risk factors for uterine atony or hemorrhage. Study Design Secondary analysis of a 3-arm double-blind randomized trial of different dose-regimens of oxytocin to prevent uterine atony after vaginal delivery. The primary outcome was uterine atony or hemorrhage requiring treatment. Twenty-one potential risk factors were evaluated. Logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors using 2 complementary pre-defined model selection strategies. Results Among 1798 women randomized to 10, 40 or 80U prophylactic oxytocin after vaginal delivery, treated uterine atony occurred in 7%. Hispanic (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3–3.4) and non-Hispanic whites (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.0–2.5), preeclampsia (OR 3.2; 95% CI 2.0–4.9) and chorioamnionitis (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.6–5.0) were consistent independent risk factors. Other risk factors based on the specified selection strategies were obesity, induction/augmentation of labor, twins, hydramnios, anemia, and arrest of descent. Amnioinfusion appeared to be protective against uterine atony (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29–0.98). Conclusion Independent risk factors for uterine atony requiring treatment include Hispanic and non-Hispanic white ethnicity, preeclampsia and chorioamnionitis. PMID:23507549

  10. A performance-oriented and risk-based regulation for containment testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.

    1994-01-01

    In August 1992, the NRC initiated a major initiative to develop requirements for containment testing that are less prescriptive, and more performance-oriented and risk-based. This action was a result of public comments and several studies that concluded that the economic burden of certain, present containment testing requirements are not commensurate with their safety benefits. The rulemaking will include consideration of relaxing the allowable containment leakage rate, increasing the interval for the integrated containment test, and establishing intervals for the local containment leak rate tests based on their performance. A study has been conducted to provide technical information for establishing the performance criteria for containment tests, the allowable leakage rate, commensurate with its significance to total public risk. The study used results of a recent comprehensive study conducted by the NRC, NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,' to examine the sensitivity of containment leakage to public risk. Risk was found to be insensitive to containment leakage rate up to levels of about 100 percent-volume per day for certain types of containments. PRA methods have also been developed to establish risk-based intervals for containment tests based on their past experience. Preliminary evaluations show that increasing the interval for the integrated containment leakage test from three times to once every ten years would have an insignificant impact on public risk. Preliminary analyses of operational experience data for local leak rate tests show that performance-based testing, valves and penetrations that perform well are tested less frequently, is feasible with marginal impact on safety. The above technical studies are being used to develop efficient (cost-effective) requirements for containment tests. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

  11. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

    1999-11-14

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

  12. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

    2017-08-01

    Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

  14. 76 FR 12611 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-08

    ... necessary to calculate its required minimum risk-based capital requirements under both the general risk... to the advanced approaches rules must calculate and compare its minimum tier 1 and total risk-based... sector of the economy, productivity, competition, jobs, the environment, public health or safety, or...

  15. Use of probabilistic risk assessments to define areas of possible exemption from regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.A.; Carlson, D.; Kolaczkowski, A.; LaChance, J.

    1988-01-01

    The Risk-Based Licensing Program (RBLP) was sponsored by the Department of Energy for the purpose of establishing and demonstrating an approach for identifying potential areas for exemption from current regulatory requirements in the licensing of nuclear power plants. Such an approach could assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for both current and future nuclear plant designs. Use of the methodology could result in streamlining the regulatory process by eliminating unnecessarily detailed reviews of portions of a plant design not important to risk. The RBLP methodology utilizes probabilistic risk assessments, (PRAs), which are required of all future applicants for nuclear power plant licenses. PRA results are used as a screening tool to determine the risk significance of various plant features which are correlated to the risk importance of regulations to identify potential areas for regulatory exemption. Additional consideration is then given to non-risk factors in the final determination of exemption candidates. The RBLP methodology was demonstrated using an existing PRA. The results of the demonstration are highlighted. 10 refs

  16. Association between asthma and physical activity in Korean adolescents: the 3rd Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBWS-III).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae-Woo; So, Wi-Young; Kim, Yeon Soo

    2012-12-01

    Asthma is the leading chronic illness among children and adolescents in several nations. This study investigated the association between asthma and physical activity (PA). The findings in this study are based on the data obtained from the 2007 3rd Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey (KYRBWS-III), a cross-sectional survey of health-risk behaviours among a representative sample of Korean middle- and high-school students aged 13-18 years. This survey is conducted annually by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The 72 943 study subjects were selected using the complex sampling design of the survey. The association between asthma and PA was assessed by conducting multiple logistic regression analyses of the data by using the statistical software SPSS 17.0 Complex Sample. Compared with the adolescents without current asthma, significantly fewer adolescents with current asthma had a sedentary time of 3 h or less per day (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.97). Sedentary time was defined as time spent watching television, surfing the Internet, or playing computer games and excluded the time spent doing homework or study during leisure time. The analysis was adjusted for age, gender, family affluence level (FAL), obesity, allergic rhinitis, atopy and smoking. With regard to participation in adequate vigorous or moderate PA, strengthening exercise or physical education class, no significant differences were found between the adolescent students with current asthma and those without current asthma. In addition, it was found that all PA had no significant differences in their effects on asthma severity (medication, inability to work and absence from school). Our results show that the amount of sedentary time influenced asthma prevalence; however, PA did not influence asthma prevalence in Korean adolescents.

  17. An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fayaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

  18. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  19. Effects of high temperature surface oxides on room temperature aqueous corrosion and environmental embrittlement of iron aluminides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchanan, R.A.; Perrin, R.L.

    1996-09-01

    Studies were conducted to determine the effects of high-temperature surface oxides, produced during thermomechanical processing, heat treatment (750 {degrees}C in air, one hour) or simulated in-service-type oxidation (1000{degrees}C in air, 24 hours) on the room-temperature aqueous-corrosion and environmental-embrittlement characteristics of iron aluminides. Materials evaluated included the Fe{sub 3}Al-based iron aluminides, FA-84, FA-129, FAL and FAL-Mo, a FeAl-based iron aluminide, FA-385, and a disordered low-aluminum Fe-Al alloy, FAPY. Tests were performed in a mild acid-chloride solution to simulate aggressive atmospheric corrosion. Cyclic-anodic-polarization tests were employed to evaluate resistances to localized aqueous corrosion. The high-temperature oxide surfaces consistently produced detrimental results relative to mechanically or chemically cleaned surfaces. Specifically, the pitting corrosion resistances were much lower for the as-processed and 750{degrees} C surfaces, relative to the cleaned surfaces, for FA-84, FA-129, FAL-Mo, FA-385 and FAPY. Furthermore, the pitting corrosion resistances were much lower for the 1000{degrees}C surfaces, relative to cleaned surfaces, for FA-129, FAL and FAL-Mo.

  20. Risk minimisation of FGD gypsum leachates by incorporation of aluminium sulphate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez-Ayuso, E. [Department of Environmental Geology, Institute of Earth Sciences ' Jaume Almera' (CSIC), C/ Lluis Sole i Sabaris, s/n, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Department of Environmental Geochemistry, IRNASA, CSIC, Apto. 257, 37071 Salamanca (Spain)], E-mail: ealvarez@ija.csic.es; Querol, X. [Department of Environmental Geology, Institute of Earth Sciences ' Jaume Almera' (CSIC), C/ Lluis Sole i Sabaris, s/n, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Ballesteros, J.C.; Gimenez, A. [Endesa Generacion, S.A., C/ Ribera de Loira, 60, 28042 Madrid (Spain)

    2008-11-15

    The incorporation of aluminium sulphate to (flue gas desulphurisation) FGD gypsum before its disposal was investigated as a way to minimise the risk supposed by the high fluoride content of its leachates. Using a bath method the kinetic and equilibrium processes of fluoride removal by aluminium sulphate were studied at fluoride/aluminium molar concentration (F/Al) ratios in the range 1.75 10{sup -2}-1.75 under the pH conditions (about 6.5) of FGD gypsum leachates. It was found that fluoride removal was a very fast process at any of the (F/Al) ratios subject of study, with equilibrium attained within the first 15 min of interaction. High decreases in solution fluoride concentrations (50-80%) were found at the equilibrium state. The use of aluminium sulphate in the stabilization of FGD gypsum proved to greatly decrease its fluoride leachable content (in the range 20-90% for aluminium sulphate doses of 0.1-5%, as determined by the European standard EN 12457-4). Such fluoride leaching minimisation assures the characterization of this by-product as a waste acceptable at landfills for non-hazardous wastes according to the Council Decision 2003/33/EC on waste disposal. Furthermore, as derived from column leaching studies, the proposed stabilization system showed to be highly effective in simulated conditions of disposal, displaying fluoride leaching reduction values about 55 and 80% for aluminium sulphate added amounts of 1 and 2%, respectively.

  1. Options for improving hazardous waste cleanups using risk-based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elcock, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores how risk- and technology-based criteria are currently used in the RCRA and CERCLA cleanup programs. It identifies ways in which risk could be further incorporated into RCRA and CERCLA cleanup requirements and the implications of risk-based approaches. The more universal use of risk assessment as embodied in the risk communication and risk improvement bills before Congress is not addressed. Incorporating risk into the laws and regulations governing hazardous waste cleanup, will allow the use of the best scientific information available to further the goal of environmental protection in the United States while containing costs. and may help set an example for other countries that may be developing cleanup programs, thereby contributing to enhanced global environmental management

  2. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  3. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  4. Chronic diseases requiring hospitalization and risk of non-melanoma skin cancers-A population based study from Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Annette Ø; Olesen, Anne B; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2008-01-01

    We examined the associations between chronic diseases requiring hospitalization and the risk of non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) in a population-based case-control study of 4,187 patients diagnosed with a first primary NMSC in 1995 in Denmark. From the National Patient Registry covering all Danish.......99-15)), and skin diseases (IRR 5.28 (95% CI: 1.95-14)). Our study supports the presence of an association between certain chronic diseases and NMSC, and further suggests that these results unlikely are due to bias.Journal of Investigative Dermatology advance online publication, 4 October 2007; doi:10.1038/sj...... hospitals, we obtained data on hospitalizations with chronic diseases, recorded before the date of NMSC diagnosis. Using incidence density sampling, we selected 10 age-, gender-, and residence-matched controls from the Danish Civil Registration System. We used conditional logistic regression to compute...

  5. Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1987-01-01

    Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

  6. 76 FR 16588 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations; Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations; Correction AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice of... Register of January 20, 2011, regarding Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations...

  7. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  8. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  9. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  10. EL MAESTRO ORLANDO FALS BORDA SUS IDEAS EDUCATIVAS Y SOCIALES PARA EL CAMBIO EN LA SOCIEDAD COLOMBIANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Ocampo López

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo de investigación de HISULA en la serie de Educadores Latinoamericanos tiene por objeto el estudio de las ideas educativas y la metodología científica de la Investigación-Acción Participativa del educador Dr. Orlando Fals Borda, uno de los grandes ideólogos de la educación universitaria en Colombia. Se preocupa por el análisis de sus principales obras relacionadas con el estudio sociológico de los campesinos de los Andes y el Hombre y la Tierra en la región cundiboyacense del Altiplano Andino. Este ilustre educador barranquillero hizo sus trabajos de investigación sociológica del pueblo colombiano y defendió el papel de la educación en el cambio social. Con su metodología de la investigación-acción participativa señaló los nuevos rumbos de la educación colombiana centrada en el alumno y en la filosofía del "aprender haciendo". En sus actividades docentes formó una generación de sociólogos dedicados a la investigación social en una época de crisis y de cambios. Por ello su acción se realizó en la Facultad de Sociología de la Universidad Nacional y en sus investigaciones científicas y educativas, destacando su metodología de "La investigación-Acción Participativa". Su actuación fue definitiva como ideólogo de la Constitución Nacional de 1991, en la cual se plasmaron algunas de sus ideas.

  11. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  12. Ethical considerations in the management of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisen, Andrew; Krieger, Charles

    2013-11-01

    This article examines some of the ethical concerns relevant for the management of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We emphasize the importance for providing a competent assessment of the clinical deficit to correctly identify the disease and to avoid incorrect diagnoses. Conveying the diagnosis to the patient and their family requires empathy and it is important to remain supportive and positive, even in the face of this incurable disease. The essence of care in ALS is to permit the patient to have optimal function for their level of ability. This may require the use of gastrostomy and non-invasive or permanent ventilation. Employment of a multi-disciplinary team will permit optimization of patient care to achieve a good quality of life for as long as possible. The patient should also be informed of the risks associated with unproven therapies and the risks and potential benefits of therapeutic trials. The wishes of patients in regard to gastrostomy, long-term ventilation and end-of life decisions must be considered in an unbiased fashion. Recent advances in the genetics of familial ALS (FALS) have demonstrated some overlap between FALS, sporadic ALS and fronto-temporal lobar dementia (FTLD). The interpretation and dissemination of the results of genetic testing although important can induce confusion, considerable anxiety and guilt in patients and their families and proper counseling is imperative. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Minimum area requirements for an at-risk butterfly based on movement and demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Leone M; Crone, Elizabeth E

    2016-02-01

    Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species' traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7-1.5 ha, in accordance with trait-based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture-mark-recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape-scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. 76 FR 16587 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for... other things, would implement DCO Core Principle D (Risk Management) and would establish a related... framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and promote market integrity within the financial system...

  15. Addendum to the Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 404: Roller Coaster Sewage Lagoons and North Disposal Trench, Tonopah Test Range, Nevada, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynn Kidman

    2009-02-01

    This document constitutes an addendum to the September 1998, Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 404: Roller Coaster Lagoons and Trench, Tonopah Test Range, Nevada as described in the document Recommendations and Justifications for Modifications for Use Restrictions Established under the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (UR Modification document) dated February 2008. The UR Modification document was approved by NDEP on February 26, 2008. The approval of the UR Modification document constituted approval of each of the recommended UR modifications. In conformance with the UR Modification document, this addendum consists of: • This cover page that refers the reader to the UR Modification document for additional information • The cover and signature pages of the UR Modification document • The NDEP approval letter • The corresponding section of the UR Modification document This addendum provides the documentation justifying the modification of the UR for CAS TA-03-001-TARC Roller Coaster Lagoons. This UR was established as part of Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) corrective actions and was based on the presence of contaminants at concentrations greater than the action levels established at the time of the initial investigation (FFACO, 1996; as amended August 2006). Since this UR was established, practices and procedures relating to the implementation of risk-based corrective actions (RBCA) have changed. Therefore, this UR was re-evaluated against the current RBCA criteria as defined in the Industrial Sites Project Establishment of Final Action Levels (NNSA/NSO, 2006c). This reevaluation consisted of comparing the original data (used to define the need for the UR) to risk-based final action levels (FALs) developed using the current Industrial Sites RBCA process. The re-evaluation resulted in a recommendation to modify the UR for CAS TA-03

  16. 28 CFR 105.11 - Individuals not requiring a security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... requiring a security risk assessment. (a) Citizens and nationals of the United States. A citizen or national... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Individuals not requiring a security risk assessment. 105.11 Section 105.11 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY...

  17. 12 CFR 652.15 - Interest rate risk management and requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management and requirements... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Investment Management § 652.15 Interest rate risk... (direction, controls, and supervision) to the interest rate risk management program and must be knowledgeable...

  18. Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

    2017-05-01

    Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. Early Engagement of Safety and Mission Assurance Expertise Using Systems Engineering Tools: A Risk-Based Approach to Early Identification of Safety and Assurance Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darpel, Scott; Beckman, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Decades of systems engineering practice have demonstrated that the earlier the identification of requirements occurs, the lower the chance that costly redesigns will needed later in the project life cycle. A better understanding of all requirements can also improve the likelihood of a design's success. Significant effort has been put into developing tools and practices that facilitate requirements determination, including those that are part of the model-based systems engineering (MBSE) paradigm. These efforts have yielded improvements in requirements definition, but have thus far focused on a design's performance needs. The identification of safety & mission assurance (S&MA) related requirements, in comparison, can occur after preliminary designs are already established, yielding forced redesigns. Engaging S&MA expertise at an earlier stage, facilitated by the use of MBSE tools, and focused on actual project risk, can yield the same type of design life cycle improvements that have been realized in technical and performance requirements.

  20. Improving the action requirements of technical specifications: A risk-comparison of continued operation and plant shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1994-01-01

    When the systems needed to remove decay heat are inoperable or degraded, the risk of shutting down the plant may be comparable to, or even higher than, that of continuing power operation with the equipment inoperable while giving priority to repairs. This concern arises because the plant may not have sufficient capability for removing decay heat during the shutdown. However, Technical Specifications (TSs) often require ''immediate'' shutdown of the plant. In this paper, the authors present risk-based analyses of the various operational policy alternatives available in such situations, with an example application to the standby service water (SSW) system of a BWR. These analyses can be used to define risk-effective requirements for those standby safety systems under discussion

  1. Improving the action requirements of technical specifications: A risk-comparison of continued operation and plant shutdown

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T.

    1995-04-01

    When the systems needed to remove decay heat are inoperable or degraded, the risk of shutting down the plant may be comparable to, or even higher than, that of continuing power operation with the equipment inoperable while giving priority to repairs. This concern arises because the plant may not have sufficient capability for removing decay heat during the shutdown. However, Technical Specifications (TSs) often require {open_quotes}immediate{close_quotes} shutdown of the plant. In this paper, we present risk-based analyses of the various operational policy alternatives available in such situations, with an example application to the standby service water (SSW) system of a BWR. These analyses can be used to define risk-effective requirements for those standby safety systems under discussion.

  2. Fraud Risk Modelling: Requirements Elicitation in the Case of Telecom Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yesuf, Ahmed; Wolos, Lars Peter; Rannenberg, Kai

    2017-01-01

    Telecom providers are losing tremendous amounts of money due to fraud risks posed to Telecom services and products. Currently, they are mainly focusing on fraud detection approaches to reduce the impact of fraud risks against their services. However, fraud prevention approaches should also...... be investigated in order to further reduce fraud risks and improve the revenue of Telecom providers. Fraud risk modelling is a fraud prevention approach aims at identifying the potential fraud risks, estimating the damage and setting up preventive mechanisms before the fraud risks lead to actual losses....... In this paper, we highlight the important requirements for a usable and context-aware fraud risk modelling approach for Telecom services. To do so, we have conducted two workshops with experts from a Telecom provider and experts from multi-disciplinary areas. In order to show and document the requirements, we...

  3. Appendectomy and Risk of Subsequent Diverticular Disease Requiring Hospitalization: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sköldberg, Filip; Olén, Ola; Ekbom, Anders; Schmidt, Peter T

    2018-07-01

    Appendicitis and acute diverticulitis share clinical features and are both influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Appendectomy has been positively associated with diverticular disease in hospital-based case-control studies. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in a population-based setting, whether appendectomy, with or without appendicitis, is associated with an altered risk of hospitalization with diverticular disease. This was a population-based case-control study. The study was based on national healthcare and population registers. We studied 41,988 individuals hospitalized between 2000 and 2010 with a first-time diagnosis of colonic diverticular disease and 413,115 matched control subjects. The association between appendectomy with or without appendicitis and diverticular disease was investigated by conditional logistic regression, including a model adjusting for hospital use. A total of 2813 cases (6.7%) and 19,037 controls (4.6%) had a previous record of appendectomy (appendectomy with acute appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.31 (95% CI, 1.24-1.39); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.23-1.38)). Appendectomy was most strongly associated with an increased risk of diverticular disease within 1 year (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 2.26 (95% CI, 1.61-3.16); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 3.98 (95% CI, 2.71-5.83)), but the association was still present ≥20 years after appendectomy (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.22 (95% CI, 1.12-1.32); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.19 (95% CI, 1.10-1.28)). Detailed clinical information on the cases was not available. There were unmeasured potential confounders, such as smoking and dietary factors. The findings are consistent with a hypothesis of appendectomy causing an increased risk of diverticular disease, for example, by affecting the mucosal immune system or the gut microbiome. However, several other mechanisms may contribute to, or account for, the positive association

  4. Knowledge Base for an Intelligent System in order to Identify Security Requirements for Government Agencies Software Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adán Beltrán G.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It has been evidenced that one of the most common causes in the failure of software security is the lack of identification and specification of requirements for information security, it is an activity with an insufficient importance in the software development or software acquisition We propose the knowledge base of CIBERREQ. CIBERREQ is an intelligent knowledge-based system used for the identification and specification of security requirements in the software development cycle or in the software acquisition. CIBERREQ receives functional software requirements written in natural language and produces non-functional security requirements through a semi-automatic process of risk management. The knowledge base built is formed by an ontology developed collaboratively by experts in information security. In this process has been identified six types of assets: electronic data, physical data, hardware, software, person and service; as well as six types of risk: competitive disadvantage, loss of credibility, economic risks, strategic risks, operational risks and legal sanctions. In addition there are defined 95 vulnerabilities, 24 threats, 230 controls, and 515 associations between concepts. Additionally, automatic expansion was used with Wikipedia for the asset types Software and Hardware, obtaining 7125 and 5894 software and hardware subtypes respectively, achieving thereby an improvement of 10% in the identification of the information assets candidates, one of the most important phases of the proposed system.

  5. A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

    2018-01-01

    We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

  6. Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

    2009-01-01

    Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

  7. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  8. Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Alan E.

    Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures

  9. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  10. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  11. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  12. Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  14. Required Market Risk Premium among countries in 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Fernandez

    2015-12-01

    This survey also links with the Equity Premium Puzzle. It may be explained by the fact that many market participants use historical data and advice from textbooks and finance professors. Consequently, ex-ante equity premia have been high, most market prices have been consistently undervalued, and the ex-post risk premia has been also high. Many investors use historical data and textbook prescriptions to estimate the required and the expected equity premium, the undervaluation and the high ex-post risk premium are self fulfilling prophecies.

  15. Neutronics calculations for denatured molten salt reactors: Assessing resource requirements and proliferation-risk attributes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Ali; McClamrock, Edward B.; Glaser, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We study the proliferation-risk and resource attributes of denatured MSRs. • MSRs offer significantly better resource efficiency compared to light-water reactors. • Denatured single-fluid MSRs reactors offer promising non-proliferation attributes. - Abstract: Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are often advocated as a radical but worthwhile alternative to traditional reactor concepts based on solid fuels. This article builds upon the existing research into MSRs to model and simulate the operation of thorium-fueled single-fluid and two-fluid reactors. The analysis is based on neutronics calculations and focuses on denatured MSR systems. Resource utilization and basic proliferation-risk attributes are compared to those of standard light-water reactors. Depending on specific design choices, even fully denatured reactors could reduce uranium and enrichment requirements by a factor of 3–4. Overall, denatured single-fluid designs appear as the most promising candidate technology minimizing both design complexity and overall proliferation risks despite being somewhat less attractive from the perspective of resource utilization

  16. Application of the risk based inspection in chemical and nuclear installations: a critical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Anna Leticia Barbosa de

    2004-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) has arisen as an opportunity for the industry to give a specific treatment to items as equipment integrity, failures consequences and the level of risk of each piece of equipment in the inspection programs definitions. Risk-based inspection programs are replacing the traditional ones based on prescriptive requirements, for both the oil and nuclear industries. The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate how the nuclear industry has gotten over several difficulties in implementing risk-based programs considering that its safety design and regulations have traditionally been based on deterministic and prescriptive criteria and requirements. During the development of the work, the study has shown how the absence of a rigid regulation favored the dissemination of RBI diffusion in the oil industry, mainly in the USA, where such industries do not face those difficulties found by the European plants, as long as it is well known that in Europe there are complex interrelations among documents from different countries with diversity of regulation procedures. (author)

  17. The ASME research task force on risk-based in-service inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, K.R.; Chapman, O.J.V.

    1997-01-01

    The use of risk-based methods in the development of in-service inspection (ISI) and in-service testing (IST) programs for nuclear power plant and other industrial applications has been studied for the last several years through the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Centre for Research and Technology Development (ASME 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996). The results of this work are being used as a foundation to develop specific requirements for implementation of risk-based technology in ASME Codes and Standards, regulatory requirements and industry programs both in the U.S. and other countries. This paper provides a brief overview of the ASME Research Methodology and how it has been adapted for application to the inspection of piping within the USA. It also relates how the reliability of nondestructive examination (NDE) methods for pressure boundary components can impact the risk and discusses the relationship between this and NDE qualification/demonstration now being implemented in Europe and the USA. (orig.)

  18. Argumentation-Based Security Requirements Elicitation: The Next Round

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Bullee, Jan-Willem; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2014-01-01

    Information Security Risk Assessment can be viewed as part of requirements engineering because it is used to translate security goals into security requirements, where security requirements are the desired system properties that mitigate threats to security goals. To improve the defensibility of

  19. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    The first phase of the assessment concentrates on (1) identification of selected risk-based approaches for improving current technical specifications, (2) appraisal of characteristics of each approach, including advantages and disadvantages, and (3) recommendation of one or more approaches that might result in improving current technical specification requirements. The second phase of the work concentrates on assessment of the feasibility of implementation of a pilot program to study detailed characteristics of the preferred approach. The real time risk-based approach was identified as the preferred approach to technical specifications for controlling plant operational risk. There do not appear to be any technical or institutional obstacles to prevent initiation of a pilot program to assess the characteristics and effectiveness of such an approach. 2 tabs

  20. Risk based inspection experience from the European chemical- and petrochemical industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristensen, Hans; Jeppesen, Leif; Larsen, Bjarne; Kim, Na Yon

    2001-01-01

    As an inspection vendor with 60 years of experience and with more than 25 years of experience as manufacturer of the Automated Ultrasonic NDT systems, the P-scan systems, FORCE Institute is continuously analysing the market for NDT. This is done to assure that both the equipment product line and the service mix provided by FORCE Institute are meeting the requirements from the industry today and in the future. The concept of Risk Based Inspection Programmes were adopted early by the offshore industry and has in the recent years been adopted by many other industries as a reliable and cost efficient way of maintaining a production facility. A Risk/Reliability Based Inspection Programme is a 'living organism' that constantly needs information if it shall be of any value and NDT information is only one type of information that is required. The NDT information required is normally related to corrosion/base material information and weld integrity information. NDT as an integrated part of a plants maintenance system is, in Europe, currently influenced by the following tendencies which all are related to 'Risk Based Inspection': · Increased use of Base-Line Inspections · Reduction in the use of repeated inspections(qualitative- instead of quantitative Inspections). · Inspection results are fed directly into the plant maintenance system. · Fitness-for-Purpose acceptance criteria instead of conventional acceptance criteria. As repeatability and accuracy is a key issue for the data, automated ultrasonic inspection is increasingly used as an alternative to manual ultrasonic inspection, but due to the physical size of most automated ultrasonic inspection systems the gain in productivity has not been as significant as the gain in repeatability and accuracy. In this paper some of FORCE Institute's practical experiences with examinations carried out in connection with Risk Based Inspection is used to illustrate the above described tendencies. Not only examples using automated

  1. A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

  2. 75 FR 3647 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    ... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital Requirements AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION... further directed FCA to estimate the credit risk on the portfolio covered by this new authority at a rate... component to directly recognize the credit risk on such loans.\\4\\ At the time of the Farm Bill's enactment...

  3. The effects of cultivar and harvest year on the fatty alcohol composition of olive oils from Southwest Calabria (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuffrè, A. M.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The fatty alcohol (FAL composition of olive oils produced in Southwest Calabria (Southern Italy was analyzed over three harvest years 2005–2006–2007. Three autochthonous cultivars: Cassanese, Ottobratica, Sinopolese and seven allochtonous cultivars: Coratina, Itrana, Leccino, Nocellara Messinese, Nociara, Pendolino and Picholine were considered. Hexacosanol was always the main FAL occurring in the olive oil. The autochthonous cultivars were among those with the highest total FAL contents. Nevertheless, both autochthonous and allochthonous cultivars produced olive oil within the limit indicated by EU and IOC regulations. Cultivar affected the FAL content highly significantly or very highly significantly, whereas in a large part of the cases the harvest year did not influence the FAL content. Cultivar x harvest year influenced highly significantly or very highly significantly only C22-OH, C23-OH, C24-OH, C25-OH, odd chain FALs and the ratio even chain/odd chain FALs.Se ha analizado, durante tres cosechas 2005–2006–2007, la composición de alcoholes grasos (FAL de aceites de oliva producidos en el suroeste de Calabria (sur de Italia. Se consideraron tres cultivares autóctonos: Cassanese, Ottobratica y Sinopolese y siete alóctonas: Coratina, Itrana, Leccino, Nocellara Messinese, Nociara, Pendolino y Picholine. Hexacosanol fue siempre el principal FAL en los aceites de oliva. Los cultivares autóctonos se encuentran entre los de mayor contenido total de FAL. No obstante, ambos cultivares, autóctonos y alóctonos producen aceites de oliva dentro de los límites de los reglamentos de la UE y del COI. Los cultivares afectan de manera altamente significativa o muy significativa al contenido de FAL, mientras que el año de cosecha no influyó en el contenido de FAL. Cultivar x año de cosecha influye de manera altamente significativa o muy significativa sobre C22-OH, C23-OH, C24-OH, C25-OH, al total de alcoholes grasos de cadena impar y a la

  4. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  5. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  6. Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

  7. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

  8. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  9. A Requirements Analysis Model Based on QFD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Zhi-wei; Nelson K.H.Tang

    2004-01-01

    The enterprise resource planning (ERP) system has emerged to offer an integrated IT solution and more and more enterprises are increasing by adopting this system and regarding it as an important innovation. However, there is already evidence of high failure risks in ERP project implementation, one major reason is poor analysis of the requirements for system implementation. In this paper, the importance of requirements analysis for ERP project implementation is highlighted, and a requirements analysis model by applying quality function deployment (QFD) is presented, which will support to conduct requirements analysis for ERP project.

  10. Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floyd, S.D.

    1996-12-01

    Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

  11. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  12. Risk-based management system development for the Advanced Test Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.L.; Eide, S.A.

    1990-01-01

    A Risk-Based Management System (RBMS) is being developed to facilitate the use of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment to support ATR operation. Most ATR RBMS questions can best be answered using the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. However, some applications may require employment of the other four codes used to develop and report the PRA. These four codes include the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), SETS, ETA-II, and the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The ATR RBMS will evolve over three years, and will include the results of the Level 3 and external events analysis

  13. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  14. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  15. A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

    2017-08-01

    The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

  16. Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

    2014-01-01

    To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

  17. 17 CFR 240.17h-2T - Risk assessment reporting requirements for brokers and dealers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... requirements for brokers and dealers. 240.17h-2T Section 240.17h-2T Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Organizations § 240.17h-2T Risk assessment reporting requirements for brokers and dealers. (a) Reporting requirements of risk assessment information required to be maintained by section 240.17h-1T. (1) Every broker...

  18. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system

  19. AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects. - Highlights: • AHP- and survey-based study of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects in Russia. • Main risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects are investigated. • In practice, lack of a feasible risk management approach in EPC projects. • Regulatory and financial risks contribute most to the EPC projects’ riskiness. • Elaboration of the sector-specific EPC project contractual scheme is required.

  20. Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities

  1. Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shih-Yew

    1995-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities. (author)

  2. Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

    2013-02-12

    Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

  3. Risk-Based Confidentiality Requirements Specification for Outsourced IT Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Today, companies are required to be in control of their IT assets, and to provide proof of this in the form of independent IT audit reports. However, many companies have outsourced various parts of their IT systems to other companies, which potentially threatens the control they have of their IT

  4. A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munganahalli, D.

    1996-12-31

    Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

  5. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  6. 76 FR 12645 - Ownership Limitations and Governance Requirements for Security-Based Swap Clearing Agencies...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-08

    ... 3235-AK74 Ownership Limitations and Governance Requirements for Security- Based Swap Clearing Agencies... the Dodd-Frank Act, the Commission shall adopt such rules if it determines that they are necessary or appropriate to improve the governance of, or to mitigate systemic risk, promote competition or mitigate...

  7. Genetic analysis of patients with familial and sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in a Brazilian Research Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadi, Gerson; Maximino, Jessica Ruivo; Jorge, Frederico Mennucci de Haidar; Borba, Fabrício Castro de; Gilio, Joyce Meire; Callegaro, Dagoberto; Lopes, Camila Galvão; Santos, Samantha Nakamura Dos; Rebelo, Gabriela Natania Sales

    2017-05-01

    To investigate gene mutations in familial form (FALS) and sporadic form (SALS) of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in a highly miscegenated population. Frequencies of mutations in the C9orfF72, TARDBP, SOD1, FUS and VAPB genes were investigated in a cohort of FALS (n = 39) and SALS (n = 189) subjects from the Research Centre of the University of São Paulo School of Medicine. All patients were subjected to C9orf72 and TARDBP analyses. SOD1, FUS and VAPB were also evaluated in FALS subjects. Mutations were identified in FALS (61.3%) and SALS (5.3%) patients. Mutations in C9orf72 (12.8%, >45 GGGGCC hexanucleotide repeats), VAPB (43.6%, P56S) and SOD1 (7.7%, L145S) were identified in FALS subjects. Pathogenic C9orf72 expansions (2.64%) were identified in some SALS patients. Similar changes of TARDBP were found in SALS (2.64%) but not in FALS subjects. No FUS mutations were seen in any FALS subjects. TARDBP and C9orf72 mutations in this cohort were similar to those found in other centres worldwide. VAPB mutation (P56S) was highly prevalent in Brazilian FALS patients.

  8. Application of risk-based methods for inspection of nuclear power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, K.R.

    1992-01-01

    In-service inspections (ISIs) can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. All aspects of inspections, i.e., objectives, method, timing, and the acceptance criteria for detected flaws can affect the probability of component failure. Where ISI programs exist, they are primarily based on prior experience and engineering judgment. At best, some include an implicit consideration of risk (probability of failure multiplied by consequence). Since late 1988, a multidisciplined American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection Guidelines has been addressing the general question of how to formally incorporate risk considerations into plans and requirements for the ISI of components and structural systems. The task force and steering committee that guided the project have concluded that appropriate analytical methods exist for evaluating and quantifying risks associated with pressure boundary and structural failures. With the support of about a dozen industry and government organizations, the research group has recommended a general methodology for establishing a risk-based inspection program that could be applied to any nuclear system or structural system

  9. Application of Grounded Theory in Determining Required Elements for IPv6 Risk Assessment Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli Athirah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The deployment of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6 has raised security concerns among the network administrators. Thus, in strengthening the network security, administrator requires an appropriate method to assess the possible risks that occur in their networks. Aware of the needs to calculate risk in IPv6 network, it is essential to an organization to have an equation that is flexible and consider the requirements of the network. However, the existing risk assessment equations do not consider the requirement of the network. Therefore, this paper presents the adaptation of grounded theory to search for elements that are needed to develop IPv6 risk assessment (IRA6 equation. The attack scenarios’ experiments; UDP Flooding, TCP Flooding and Multicast attacks were carried out in different network environment to show how the IPv6 risk assessment equation being used. The result shows that the IRA6 equation is more flexible to be used regardless the network sizes and easier to calculate the risk value compared to the existing risk assessment equations. Hence, network administrators can have a proper decision making and strategic planning for a robust network security.

  10. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  11. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  12. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 195 - Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older Hazardous Liquid and Carbon Dioxide Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... pressure tested, based on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The first step is to determine the... test requirements depending on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The overall risk... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older...

  13. Influence of the Atmospheric Model on Hanle Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Ryohko; Uitenbroek, Han; Goto, Motoshi; Iida, Yusuke; Tsuneta, Saku

    2018-05-01

    We clarify the uncertainty in the inferred magnetic field vector via the Hanle diagnostics of the hydrogen Lyman-α line when the stratification of the underlying atmosphere is unknown. We calculate the anisotropy of the radiation field with plane-parallel semi-empirical models under the nonlocal thermal equilibrium condition and derive linear polarization signals for all possible parameters of magnetic field vectors based on an analytical solution of the atomic polarization and Hanle effect. We find that the semi-empirical models of the inter-network region (FAL-A) and network region (FAL-F) show similar degrees of anisotropy in the radiation field, and this similarity results in an acceptable inversion error ( e.g., {˜} 40 G instead of 50 G in field strength and {˜} 100° instead of 90° in inclination) when FAL-A and FAL-F are swapped. However, the semi-empirical models of FAL-C (averaged quiet-Sun model including both inter-network and network regions) and FAL-P (plage regions) yield an atomic polarization that deviates from all other models, which makes it difficult to precisely determine the magnetic field vector if the correct atmospheric model is not known ( e.g., the inversion error is much larger than 40% of the field strength; {>} 70 G instead of 50 G). These results clearly demonstrate that the choice of model atmosphere is important for Hanle diagnostics. As is well known, one way to constrain the average atmospheric stratification is to measure the center-to-limb variation of the linear polarization signals. The dependence of the center-to-limb variations on the atmospheric model is also presented in this paper.

  14. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  15. Falência ovariana precoce associada a deleção no braço longo do cromossomo: relato de dois casos e revisão da literatura Premature ovarian failure with a deletion in the long arm of chromosome: report of two cases and review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariangela Badalotti

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Falência ovariana prematura pode ser idiopática ou estar associada a várias distúrbios auto-imunes ou genéticos, como as deleções do cromossomo X. Relatamos dois novos casos de deleções do braço longo do cromossomo X, em pacientes nuligrávidas apresentando amenorréia secundária e infertilidade. Nenhuma paciente referia história familiar de falência ovariana prematura e relatavam desenvolvimento puberal normal. A avaliação genética mostrou deleção distal no braço longo do cromossomo X, sendo os resultados 46,X,del(Xq22 e 46,X,del(Xq13q28, respectivamente. Após o diagnóstico as pacientes optaram por fertilização in vitro com óvulos doados.Premature ovarian failure may be idiopathic or associated with several autoimmune and genetic disorders as X chromosome deletions. We report two cases of preamture ovarian failure associated with a deletion in the long arm of X chromosome. Both patients were nulligravidas presenting secondary amenorrhea and complaints of infertility, without family history of premature ovarian failure and reporting normal puberal development. Their karyotypes showed deletions of the distal long arm of all X chromosomes and were 46,X, del(Xq22 and 46,X, del(Xq13q28, respectively. After the diagnosis the patients decided to be submitted to an in vitro fertilization with egg donation.

  16. Is the risk for soil arthropods covered by new data requirements under the EU PPP Regulation No. 1107/2009?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohlschmid, E; Ruf, D

    2016-12-01

    Testing of effects on earthworms and non-target foliar arthropods is an integral part of the ecotoxicological risk assessment for the authorization of plant protection products. According to the new data requirements, which came into force in 2014 for active substances and in 2016 for plant protection products, the chronic earthworm toxicity test with Eisenia fetida based on reproductive, growth, and behavioral effects instead of the acute earthworm toxicity test based on mortality, has to be conducted routinely. Additional testing of effects on soil arthropods (Folsomia candida, Hyposaspis aculeifer) is required if the risk assessment of foliar applications raises concerns regarding non-target foliar arthropods (Aphidius rhopalosiphi, Typhlodromus pyri) or if the product is applied directly on or into the soil. Thus, it was investigated whether the sublethal earthworm endpoint is more sensitive than the sublethal soil arthropod endpoint for different types of pesticides and whether the risk assessment for non-target arthropods would trigger the testing of effects on soil arthropods in the cases where soil arthropods are more sensitive than earthworms. Toxicity data were obtained from Swiss ecotoxicological database, EFSA Conclusions and scientific literature. For insecticides and herbicides, no general conclusion regarding differences in sensitivity of either earthworms or soil arthropods based on sublethal endpoints were possible. For fungicides, the data indicated that in general, earthworms seemed to be more sensitive than soil arthropods. In total, the sublethal F. candida or H. aculeifer endpoint was lower than the sublethal E. fetida endpoint for 23 (34 %) out of 68 active substances. For 26 % of these 23 active substances, testing of soil arthropods would not have been triggered due to the new data requirement. These results based on sublethal endpoints show that earthworms and soil arthropods differ in sensitivity toward certain active substances and

  17. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  18. 75 FR 30106 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Recordkeeping Requirements for Insurers Compensated Under the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-28

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Recordkeeping Requirements for... Budget. The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office within the Department of the Treasury is soliciting... original and two copies) to: Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, Public Comment Record, Suite 2100...

  19. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  20. Application of Total Quality Management (TQM Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar K. Al-Geelawee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated. The research has consist of two main parts firstly have included a review of the most important concepts of total quality management in addition to the concept of risk analysis and management in construction projects and how to apply the concept of total quality management in the risk analysis and management. Second part included the practical part of the research, which was open and closed questionnaire for experts in the construction industry to obtain required informations for the application of total quality management requirements in risk management in construction projects in Iraq. One of the main findings of the research is that top management support has a high impact on risk management in addition to continuous improvement, training and education, while the participation of all employees in the organization and constant stimulation and focusing on the customer as one of the total quality management requirements had a moderate impact on risk management.

  1. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  2. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The future of monitoring in clinical research - a holistic approach: linking risk-based monitoring with quality management principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansmann, Eva B; Hecht, Arthur; Henn, Doris K; Leptien, Sabine; Stelzer, Hans Günther

    2013-01-01

    Since several years risk-based monitoring is the new "magic bullet" for improvement in clinical research. Lots of authors in clinical research ranging from industry and academia to authorities are keen on demonstrating better monitoring-efficiency by reducing monitoring visits, monitoring time on site, monitoring costs and so on, always arguing with the use of risk-based monitoring principles. Mostly forgotten is the fact, that the use of risk-based monitoring is only adequate if all mandatory prerequisites at site and for the monitor and the sponsor are fulfilled.Based on the relevant chapter in ICH GCP (International Conference on Harmonisation of technical requirements for registration of pharmaceuticals for human use - Good Clinical Practice) this publication takes a holistic approach by identifying and describing the requirements for future monitoring and the use of risk-based monitoring. As the authors are operational managers as well as QA (Quality Assurance) experts, both aspects are represented to come up with efficient and qualitative ways of future monitoring according to ICH GCP.

  4. Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 413: Clean Slate II Plutonium Dispersion (TTR) Tonopah Test Range, Nevada. Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick [Navarro, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan provides the rationale and supporting information for the selection and implementation of corrective actions at Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 413, Clean Slate II Plutonium Dispersion (TTR). CAU 413 is located on the Tonopah Test Range and includes one corrective action site, TA-23-02CS. CAU 413 consists of the release of radionuclides to the surface and shallow subsurface from the Clean Slate II (CSII) storage–transportation test conducted on May 31, 1963. The CSII test was a non-nuclear detonation of a nuclear device located inside a concrete bunker covered with 2 feet of soil. To facilitate site investigation and the evaluation of data quality objectives decisions, the releases at CAU 413 were divided into seven study groups: 1 Undisturbed Areas 2 Disturbed Areas 3 Sedimentation Areas 4 Former Staging Area 5 Buried Debris 6 Potential Source Material 7 Soil Mounds Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities, as set forth in the CAU 413 Corrective Action Investigation Plan, were performed from June 2015 through May 2016. Radionuclides detected in samples collected during the CAI were used to estimate total effective dose using the Construction Worker exposure scenario. Corrective action was required for areas where total effective dose exceeded, or was assumed to exceed, the radiological final action level (FAL) of 25 millirem per year. The results of the CAI and the assumptions made in the data quality objectives resulted in the following conclusions: The FAL is exceeded in surface soil in SG1, Undisturbed Areas; The FAL is assumed to be exceeded in SG5, Buried Debris, where contaminated debris and soil were buried after the CSII test; The FAL is not exceeded at SG2, SG3, SG4, SG6, or SG7. Because the FAL is exceeded at CAU 413, corrective action is required and corrective action alternatives (CAAs) must be evaluated. For CAU 413, three CAAs were evaluated: no further action, clean closure, and

  5. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  6. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  7. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  8. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  9. Selecting a Risk-Based SQC Procedure for a HbA1c Total QC Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, Sten A; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, James O

    2017-09-01

    Recent US practice guidelines and laboratory regulations for quality control (QC) emphasize the development of QC plans and the application of risk management principles. The US Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) now includes an option to comply with QC regulations by developing an individualized QC plan (IQCP) based on a risk assessment of the total testing process. The Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) has provided new practice guidelines for application of risk management to QC plans and statistical QC (SQC). We describe an alternative approach for developing a total QC plan (TQCP) that includes a risk-based SQC procedure. CLIA compliance is maintained by analyzing at least 2 levels of controls per day. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a graphical tool to simplify the selection of risk-based SQC procedures. Current HbA1c method performance, as demonstrated by published method validation studies, is estimated to be 4-Sigma quality at best. Optimal SQC strategies require more QC than the CLIA minimum requirement of 2 levels per day. More complex control algorithms, more control measurements, and a bracketed mode of operation are needed to assure the intended quality of results. A total QC plan with a risk-based SQC procedure provides a simpler alternative to an individualized QC plan. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a practical tool for selecting appropriate control rules, numbers of control measurements, and run size (or frequency of SQC). Applications demonstrate the need for continued improvement of analytical performance of HbA1c laboratory methods.

  10. Risk Oriented Audit Methodology’s Improvement, based on the Fraud Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei V. Arzhenovskii

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Modern economic development is accompanied by the increasing complexity of the relationship structure, intercompany transactions, the requirements for information disclosure on the entity’s activities. It leads to the opportunities growth of fraudulent representation public companies reporting. The external audit is considered as an institution that resists to negative processes. The issues of improving the tools that assessing the risk of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud from the standpoint the fraud theory have been examined here. Determining potential areas in which methodology for risk assessment of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud in an audit are based on the modern fraud theory interpretations will be develop. Functional and structural, comparative, logical and historical, deductive and inductive analyst methods have been used. Retrospective analysis on research areas in the fraud theory field has been performed. Perspective directions for improving methodology and methods for risk assessment of material misstatement of the financial statements in an audit have been identified. Methodology development for fraud risk assessment procedures in an audit of financial statements is based on “fraud diamond” theory. Creating new interpretations the fraud theory during last fifteen years is a consequence the expansion opportunities for corporate fraud, one of the most common species which is the financial statements falsification. Changing the list of factors that could initiate the fraud in the company's public reporting requires that the methods of its identification during the audit should be improved. Methodology and methods risk assessment of intentional material misstatement of the financial statements need to be improved in the direction both the modern modification of fraud theory.

  11. Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

  12. Multimedia risk-based soil cleanup at a gasoline-contaminated site using vapor extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, W.B.; Johnson, K.M.; Liu, S.; Loh, J.Y.; Lew, C.S.

    1996-01-01

    At a utility service center, gasoline from an underground storage tank had leaked into subsurface vadose zone soils for several years. To remediate the site, a soil vapor extraction (SVE) system was installed and operated. At the completion of the SVE operation, gasoline-containing residues in several confirmation soil borings exceeded agency-mandated cleanup levels. Rather than continue with SVE, a risk-based approach was developed to evaluate what levels of gasoline-containing residues could be left in the soil and still protect human health. The risk-based approach consisted of simulating the fate of chemical residues through the vadose zone and then into both the ground water and atmosphere. Receptor point concentrations were predicted, and health risks were assessed. The risk assessment concluded that ingestion of contaminated ground water and inhalation of air while showering were the largest potential contributors to risk, and that risks associated with inhalation of vapor-containing ambient air are small. However, all predicted risks are below the acceptable risk levels of 10 -6 individual cancer risk probability and 1.0 hazard index. Therefore, the lead agency accepted the recommendation that the site requires no further remediation. The service center continues normal operations today

  13. Base technology development enhances state-of-the-art in meeting performance requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedman, J.M.; Allen, G.C. Jr.; Luna, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has responsibility to the United States Department of Energy (DOE) for baseline technology to support the design of radioactive material transportation packages. To fulfill this responsibility, SNL works with industry, government agencies, and national laboratories to identify and develop state-of-the-art technology required to design and test safe, cost-effective radioactive materials packages. Principal elements of the base technology program include: 1) analysis techniques, 2) testing, 3) subsystem and component development, 4) packaging systems development support, and 5) technical support for policy development. These program elements support a systems approach for meeting performance requirements and assure that there is a sound underlying technical basis for both transportation packaging design and associated policy decisions. Highlights from the base technology program included in this paper are testing, design and analysis methods, advanced materials, risk assessment and logistics models, and transportation package support

  14. Risk-based priorities for inspection of nuclear pressure boundary components at selected LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.; Doctor, S.R.; Smith, B.W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from existing probabilistic risk assessments for eight representative nuclear power plants were used to identify and prioritize the most relevant systems to plant safety. The objective of this paper is to assess current in-service inspection requirements for pressure boundary systems and components, and to develop recommendations for improvements. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using risk-based methods to develop plant-specific inspection plans. Results for the eight representative plants also indicate generic trends that suggest improvements in current inspection plans now based on priorities set in accordance with code definitions of Class 1, 2, and 3 systems

  15. Risk-based priorities for inspection of nuclear pressure boundary components at selected LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.; Doctor, S.R.; Smith, B.W.

    1990-03-01

    Data from existing probabilistic risk assessments for eight representative nuclear power plants were used to identify and prioritize the most relevant systems to plant safety. The objective was to assess current in-service inspection requirements for pressure boundary systems and components, and to develop recommendations for improvements. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using risk-based methods to develop plant-specific inspection plans. Results for the eight representative plants also indicate generic trends that suggest improvements in current inspection plans now based on priorities set in accordance with code definitions of Class 1, 2, and 3 systems. 2 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  16. Common Health Risks, Required Precautions of Travelers and their Customs Towards the Use of Travel Medicine Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roupa, Zoe; Zikos, Dimitrios; Vasilopoulos, Aristides; Diomidous, Marianna

    2012-01-01

    There is an increasing number of people who travel around the world. Every traveler is exposed to nearly all infectious risks which may occur during his travel time. Some of the main risk factors can be water quality, temperature and high humidity and the exposure to multi-resistant microorganisms. To tackle the upcoming problem there is an imperative need to develop a new branch of medicine with the name of travel medicine. A consultation prior to departure for an upcoming trip is required, focusing to a personalized healthcare plan, based on international scientific protocols and epidemiological studies.Travelers must acquire essential information about the prevailing hygiene conditions and climatic differentiations that occur in the region. Additionally there are several health risks upon the arrival at destination. A scheduled visit to a health professional is necessary, especially in the case of travelers suffering from chronic diseases or those taking medication, while vaccination is considered essential for specific destination countries. Healthcare professionals should be able to inform travelers and evaluate their needs. According to research studies on notion and attitudes travelers' specific risks, only few of them are well-informed during a trip. While most studies indicate that travelers have some kind of pre travel medical consultation, not all of them proceed to the required vaccinations and medications. Travelling for business or leisure around the world may be unhealthy. The importance of proper preparation prior to the travel requires to be adequately informed by specialized healthcare professionals, and to receive appropriate vaccinations and medications, when required. The results of the review of notions and attitudes of travelers during the trip indicate not only the need for further development of the branch of travel medicine but especially the need for the expansion and the availability of health services.

  17. A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

    1997-01-01

    N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

  18. Automation of GIS-Based Population Data-Collection for Transportation Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MILLS, G. SCOTT; NEUHAUSER, SIEGLINDE

    1999-01-01

    Estimation of the potential radiological risks associated with highway transport of radioactive materials (RAM) requires input data describing population densities adjacent to all portions of the route to be traveled. Previously, aggregated risks for entire multi-state routes were adequately estimated from population data with low geographic resolution. Current demands for geographically-specific risk estimates require similar increases in resolution of population density adjacent to route segments. With the advent of commercial geographic information systems (GISs) and databases describing highways, U.S. Census Blocks, and other information that is geographically distributed, it became feasible to determine and tabulate population characteristics along transportation routes with 1-kilometer resolution. This report describes an automated method of collecting population data adjacent to route segments (for calculation of incident-free doses) based on a commercial GIS. It also describes a statistical method of resolving remaining resolution issues, and an adaptation of the automation method to collection of data on population under a hypothetical plume of contamination resulting from a potential transportation accident

  19. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  20. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  1. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  2. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  3. Provider-based Medicare risk contracting and subcontracting: opportunities and risks for provider sponsored organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, H A; Zenner, P A; Kipp, R A; Whitney, E L

    1997-01-01

    Provider sponsored organizations (PSOs) are increasingly acquiring the risk for the management of Medicare Risk patients by accepting capitation directly from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) or through contracts with HMOs or other organizations contracting with HCFA. The Medicare population and the requirements that the federal administration has put into place with respect to risk contracting are unique and demand specific responses on the part of the PSO for a contract to be successful. The PSO is cautioned to understand the actuarial risk, the clinical uniqueness of the Medicare beneficiary, Medicare reimbursement regulatory requirements, utilization management needs, and necessary reporting before entering into a contractual arrangement. This article attempts to describe some of the more common issues a provider organization must consider.

  4. GASVOL 18'' gas pipeline - risk based inspection study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoernoey, Ola H.; Etterdal, Birger A. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Oslo (Norway); Guarize, Rosimar; Oliveira, Luiz F.S. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil); Faertes, Denise; Dias, Ricardo [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    This paper describes a risk based approach and inspection planning as part of the Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) system for the 95.5 km long 18'' GASVOL gas pipeline in the South eastern region of Brazil transporting circa 5 000 000 m3 dry gas per day. Pipeline systems can be subject to several degradation mechanisms and inspection and monitoring are used to ensure system integrity. Modern pipeline regulations and codes are normally based on a core safety or risk philosophy. The detailed design requirements presented in design codes are practical interpretations established so as to fulfill these core objectives. A given pipeline, designed, constructed and installed according to a pipeline code is therefore the realization of a structure, which, along its whole length, meets the applicable safety objectives of that code. The main objective of Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) is to control and document the integrity of the pipeline for its whole service life, and to do this in a cost-effective manner. DNV has a specific approach to RBI planning, starting with an initial qualitative assessment where pipelines and damage type are ranked according to risk and potential risk reduction by an inspection and then carried forward to a quantitative detailed assessment where the level of complexity and accuracy can vary based on availability of information and owner needs. Detailed assessment requires significant effort in data gathering. The findings are dependent upon the accuracy of the inspection data, and on DNV's interpretation of the pipeline reference system and simplifications in the inspection data reported. The following specific failure mechanisms were investigated: internal corrosion, external corrosion, third party interference, landslides and black powder. RBI planning, in general words, is a 'living process'. In order to optimize future inspections, it is essential that the analyses utilize the most recent information regarding

  5. German data for risk based fire safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, M.; Berg, H.P.

    1998-01-01

    Different types of data are necessary to perform risk based fire safety assessments and, in particular, to quantify the fire event tree considering the plant specific conditions. Data on fire barriers, fire detection and extinguishing, including also data on secondary effects of a fire, have to be used for quantifying the potential hazard and damage states. The existing German database on fires in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is very small. Therefore, in general generic data, mainly from US databases, are used for risk based safety assessments. Due to several differences in the plant design and conditions generic data can only be used as conservative assumptions. World-wide existing generic data on personnel failures in case of fire fighting have only to be adapted to the plant specific conditions inside the NPP to be investigated. In contrary, unavailabilities of fire barrier elements may differ strongly depending on different standards, testing requirements, etc. In addition, the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment may vary depending on type and manufacturer. The necessity for more detailed and for additional plant specific data was the main reason for generating updated German data on the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment/features in NPPs to support risk based fire safety analyses being recommended to be carried out as an additional tool to deterministic fire hazard analyses in the frame of safety reviews. The results of these investigations revealed a broader and more realistic database for technical reliability of active fire protection means, but improvements as well as collection of further data are still necessary. (author)

  6. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  7. Model-Based Requirements Management in Gear Systems Design Based On Graph-Based Design Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Holder

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For several decades, a wide-spread consensus concerning the enormous importance of an in-depth clarification of the specifications of a product has been observed. A weak clarification of specifications is repeatedly listed as a main cause for the failure of product development projects. Requirements, which can be defined as the purpose, goals, constraints, and criteria associated with a product development project, play a central role in the clarification of specifications. The collection of activities which ensure that requirements are identified, documented, maintained, communicated, and traced throughout the life cycle of a system, product, or service can be referred to as “requirements engineering”. These activities can be supported by a collection and combination of strategies, methods, and tools which are appropriate for the clarification of specifications. Numerous publications describe the strategy and the components of requirements management. Furthermore, recent research investigates its industrial application. Simultaneously, promising developments of graph-based design languages for a holistic digital representation of the product life cycle are presented. Current developments realize graph-based languages by the diagrams of the Unified Modelling Language (UML, and allow the automatic generation and evaluation of multiple product variants. The research presented in this paper seeks to present a method in order to combine the advantages of a conscious requirements management process and graph-based design languages. Consequently, the main objective of this paper is the investigation of a model-based integration of requirements in a product development process by means of graph-based design languages. The research method is based on an in-depth analysis of an exemplary industrial product development, a gear system for so-called “Electrical Multiple Units” (EMU. Important requirements were abstracted from a gear system

  8. Is exposure to cyanobacteria an environmental risk factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and other neurodegenerative diseases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Walter G.; Borenstein, Amy R.; Nelson, Lorene M.; Codd, Geoffrey A.; Rosen, Barry H.; Stommel, Elijah W.; Cox, Paul Alan

    2013-01-01

    There is a broad scientific consensus that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is caused by gene-environment interactions. Mutations in genes underlying familial ALS (fALS) have been discovered in only 5–10% of the total population of ALS patients. Relatively little attention has been paid to environmental and lifestyle factors that may trigger the cascade of motor neuron death leading to the syndrome of ALS, although exposure to chemicals including lead and pesticides, and to agricultural environments, smoking, certain sports, and trauma have all been identified with an increased risk of ALS. There is a need for research to quantify the relative roles of each of the identified risk factors for ALS. Recent evidence has strengthened the theory that chronic environmental exposure to the neurotoxic amino acid β-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) produced by cyanobacteria may be an environmental risk factor for ALS. Here we describe methods that may be used to assess exposure to cyanobacteria, and hence potentially to BMAA, namely an epidemiologic questionnaire and direct and indirect methods for estimating the cyanobacterial load in ecosystems. Rigorous epidemiologic studies could determine the risks associated with exposure to cyanobacteria, and if combined with genetic analysis of ALS cases and controls could reveal etiologically important gene-environment interactions in genetically vulnerable individuals.

  9. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  10. An operative dengue risk stratification system in Argentina based on geospatial technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ximena Porcasi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Based on an agreement between the Ministry of Health and the National Space Activities Commission in Argentina, an integrated informatics platform for dengue risk using geospatial technology for the surveillance and prediction of risk areas for dengue fever has been designed. The task was focused on developing stratification based on environmental (historical and current, viral, social and entomological situation for >3,000 cities as part of a system. The platform, developed with open-source software with pattern design, following the European Space Agency standards for space informatics, delivers two products: a national risk map consisting of point vectors for each city/town/locality and an approximate 50 m resolution urban risk map modelling the risk inside selected high-risk cities. The operative system, architecture and tools used in the development are described, including a detailed list of end users’ requirements. Additionally, an algorithm based on bibliography and landscape epidemiology concepts is presented and discussed. The system, in operation since September 2011, is capable of continuously improving the algorithms producing improved risk stratifications without a complete set of inputs. The platform was specifically developed for surveillance of dengue fever as this disease has reemerged in Argentina but the aim is to widen the scope to include also other relevant vector-borne diseases such as chagas, malaria and leishmaniasis as well as other countries belonging to south region of Latin America.

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT AUTOMATION OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS BASED ОN FUZZY INFERENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Zubkova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Application suitability for one of the intelligent methods for risk management of software projects has been shown based on the review of existing algorithms for fuzzy inference in the field of applied problems. Information sources in the management of software projects are analyzed; major and minor risks are highlighted. The most critical parameters have been singled out giving the possibility to estimate the occurrence of an adverse situations (project duration, the frequency of customer’s requirements changing, work deadlines, experience of developers’ participation in such projects and others.. The method of qualitative fuzzy description based on fuzzy logic has been developed for analysis of these parameters. Evaluation of possible situations and knowledge base formation rely on a survey of experts. The main limitations of existing automated systems have been identified in relation to their applicability to risk management in the software design. Theoretical research set the stage for software system that makes it possible to automate the risk management process for software projects. The developed software system automates the process of fuzzy inference in the following stages: rule base formation of the fuzzy inference systems, fuzzification of input variables, aggregation of sub-conditions, activation and accumulation of conclusions for fuzzy production rules, variables defuzzification. The result of risk management automation process in the software design is their quantitative and qualitative assessment and expert advice for their minimization. Practical significance of the work lies in the fact that implementation of the developed automated system gives the possibility for performance improvement of software projects.

  12. Risk-based regulation - an NRC perspective and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, T.L.; Murphy, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision making has traditionally been part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) policy and practice. In the early days of regulation, this consideration was more qualitative in nature and was reflected in prescriptive/deterministic regulatory requirements. However, with the development of quantitative risk assessment methods, more detailed and comprehensive (although not complete) risk information on nuclear power plants is available to the designer, operator, and regulator. The availability of such information provides an opportunity to assess the need for change in the current regulatory structure and to develop future regulatory requirements in a less prescriptive, more performance-oriented fashion

  13. Regulatory requirements for clinical trial and marketing authorisation application for cell-based medicinal products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmikangas, P; Flory, E; Reinhardt, J; Hinz, T; Maciulaitis, R

    2010-01-01

    The new era of regenerative medicine has led to rapid development of new innovative therapies especially for diseases and tissue/organ defects for which traditional therapies and medicinal products have not provided satisfactory outcome. Although the clinical use and developments of cell-based medicinal products (CBMPs) could be witnessed already for a decade, robust scientific and regulatory provisions for these products have only recently been enacted. The new Regulation for Advanced Therapies (EC) 1394/2007 together with the revised Annex I, Part IV of Directive 2001/83/EC provides the new legal framework for CBMPs. The wide variety of cell-based products and the foreseen limitations (small sample sizes, short shelf life) vs. particular risks (microbiological purity, variability, immunogenicity, tumourigenicity) associated with CBMPs have called for a flexible, case-by-case regulatory approach for these products. Consequently, a risk-based approach has been developed to allow definition of the amount of scientific data needed for a Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) of each CBMP. The article provides further insight into the initial risk evaluation, as well as to the quality, non-clinical, and clinical requirements of CBMPs. Special somatic cell therapies designed for active immunotherapy are also addressed.

  14. The risk-based approach to ATMP development - generally accepted by regulators but infrequently used by companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooijman, M; van Meer, P J K; Gispen-de Wied, C C; Moors, E H M; Hekkert, M P; Schellekens, H

    2013-11-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs) are the cutting edge of drug innovation. ATMPs have different challenges than other drug classes. To accommodate these challenges and facilitate science-driven development, flexibility in the requirements to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of this rapidly evolving drug class is necessary. To create flexibility, the European Union introduced the risk-based approach. This approach provides the possibility of omitting guideline-based studies based on risk analyses. To gain insight into the effect of the risk-based approach on the non-clinical development of ATMPs, two questions are addressed in this paper. Firstly, "Do companies use a risk-based approach for the non-clinical development of ATMPs?" and, secondly, "Does the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) accept non-clinical development programs based on the risk-based approach?" Scientific advice letters formulated by the CHMP were analyzed. The risk-based approach was used to justify deviations from the guidelines in the majority (75%) of the cases. The CHMP accepted 40% of the proposals to omit studies and stated that additional data was necessary to make an informed decision for 35% of the proposals. This indicates that the risk-based approach facilitates the science-driven development of ATMPs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. 12 CFR 615.5210 - Risk-adjusted assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... appropriate credit conversion factor in § 615.5212, is assigned to one of the risk categories specified in... risk-based capital requirement for the credit-enhanced assets, the risk-based capital required under..., determine the appropriate risk weight for any asset or credit equivalent amount that does not fit wholly...

  16. Experiences gained in implementing a broad-based risk-informed application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinzel, G.E.

    2004-01-01

    The South Texas Project was granted a first-of-kind exemption from special treatment requirements contained in 10-CFR Parts 21, 50, and 100 in August 2001. Since that time, South Texas has pursued a cautious, deliberate approach to implement these risk-informed exemption allowances. Over the past two years, South Texas has gained a unique insight into the challenges and benefits that exist in pursuing a broad-based risk-informed application. The American nuclear industry is currently pursuing similar capabilities through proposed rule 10-CFR 50.69 which is scheduled for NRC final review and approval in the July, 2004 time-frame. This proposed rule closely resembles the approach taken by South Texas in the exemption process and the allowances granted. For nuclear utilities that wish to pursue a similar broad-based risk-informed application, a well-conceived strategic approach is needed to prioritize the implementation activities as well as engage stake-holders in the implementation process. Cultural and communication challenges exist which must be addressed and effectively overcome. The goal of this paper is to communicate these challenges to the attendees, inform attendees of the safety and economic benefits to be recognized through this risk-informed approach, and to provide insight into continuing application opportunities that were not readily apparent when the broad-based exemption was originally conceived. This paper and presentation will be beneficial for both domestic and international attendees, as well as for personnel with utility or regulatory backgrounds. (author)

  17. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

    2013-09-01

    Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

  19. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  20. Is cell culture a risky business? Risk analysis based on scientist survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, Mark; Capes-Davis, Amanda; Eggington, Elaine; Georghiou, Ronnie; Huschtscha, Lily I; Moy, Elsa; Power, Melinda; Reddel, Roger R; Arthur, Jonathan W

    2016-02-01

    Cell culture is a technique that requires vigilance from the researcher. Common cell culture problems, including contamination with microorganisms or cells from other cultures, can place the reliability and reproducibility of cell culture work at risk. Here we use survey data, contributed by research scientists based in Australia and New Zealand, to assess common cell culture risks and how these risks are managed in practice. Respondents show that sharing of cell lines between laboratories continues to be widespread. Arrangements for mycoplasma and authentication testing are increasingly in place, although scientists are often uncertain how to perform authentication testing. Additional risks are identified for preparation of frozen stocks, storage and shipping. © 2015 UICC.

  1. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Use of global assays to understand clinical phenotype in congenital factor VII deficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, L A; Goldenberg, N A; Simpson, M L; Villalobos-Menuey, E; Bombardier, C; Acharya, S S; Santiago-Borrero, P J; Cambara, A; DiMichele, D M

    2013-09-01

    Congenital factor VII (FVII) deficiency is characterized by genotypic variability and phenotypic heterogeneity. Traditional screening and factor assays are unable to reliably predict clinical bleeding phenotype and guide haemorrhage prevention strategy. Global assays of coagulation and fibrinolysis may better characterize overall haemostatic balance and aid in haemorrhagic risk assessment. We evaluated the ability of novel global assays to better understand clinical bleeding severity in congenital FVII deficiency. Subjects underwent central determination of factor VII activity (FVII:C) as well as clot formation and lysis (CloFAL) and simultaneous thrombin and plasmin generation (STP) global assay analysis. A bleeding score was assigned to each subject through medical chart review. Global assay parameters were analysed with respect to bleeding score and FVII:C. Subgroup analyses were performed on paediatric subjects and subjects with FVII ≥ 1 IU dL(-1). CloFAL fibrinolytic index (FI2 ) inversely correlated with FVII:C while CloFAL maximum amplitude (MA) and STP maximum velocity of thrombin generation (VT max) varied directly with FVII:C. CloFAL FI2 directly correlated with bleeding score among subjects in both the total cohort and paediatric subcohort, but not among subjects with FVII ≥ 1 IU dL(-1) . Among subjects with FVII ≥ 1 IU dL(-1), STP time to maximum velocity of thrombin generation and time to maximum velocity of plasmin generation inversely correlated with bleeding score. These preliminary findings suggest a novel potential link between a hyperfibrinolytic state in bleeding severity and congenital FVII deficiency, an observation that should be further explored. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badar Nadeem Ashraf

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, risk-based capital requirements have been reinforced in the new Basel III Accord to counter excessive bank risk-taking behavior. However, prior theoretical as well as empirical literature that studies the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior is inconclusive. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior, using a panel dataset of 21 listed commercial banks of Pakistan over the period 2005–2012. Purely regulatory measures of bank capital, capital adequacy ratio, and bank assets portfolio risk, risk-weighted assets to total assets ratio, are used for the main analysis. Recently developed small N panel methods (bias corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC method and system GMM method with instruments collapse option are used to control for panel fixed effects, dynamic dependent variables, and endogenous independent variables. Overall, the results suggest that commercial banks have reduced assets portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. Results also confirm that all banks having risk-based capital ratios either lower or higher than the regulatory required limits, have decreased portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. The results are robust to alternative proxies of bank risk-taking, alternative estimation methods, and alternative samples.

  4. A interdisciplinaridade na legislação educacional, no discurso acadêmico e na prática escolar do ensino médio: panaceia ou falácia educacional?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Regina Mozena

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7941.2016v33n1p92 O discurso da interdisciplinaridade no Brasil tem sido apropriado por grande parte da legislação educacional desde a década de 70 com o sentido de responsabilizá-la por elevar a educação a patamares superiores de qualidade. Na mesma direção, crescem vertiginosamente os trabalhos de pesquisa na área de educação, que apontam a importância da interdisciplinaridade no contexto atual. Por outro lado, tanto esses documentos legais como os meios acadêmicos outorgam ao professor o papel de desenvolver e implementar a interdisciplinaridade na sala de aula. O que se observa em trabalhos de pesquisa que investigam a prática dos professores é que estes se contentam em empreender projetos que julgam interdisciplinares, mas que em sua grande maioria não passam de multidisciplinares, apoiados no senso comum. Este quadro coloca o discurso da interdisciplinaridade com feições de uma falácia educacional. Este trabalho discute a insistência histórica da legislação e do meio acadêmico em tornar este discurso um grande objeto do desejo educacional. Já com relação aos professores, procura localizar as razões pelas quais eles não se aprofundam nessa prática além do senso comum, análise apoiada na epistemologia da prática docente como pensada por Tardif e Lessard, que justifica as ações dos professores com base nas características intrínsecas das situações do trabalho interativo.

  5. Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  6. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  7. Effects of 1000 C oxide surfaces on room temperature aqueous corrosion and environmental embrittlement of iron aluminides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchanan, R.A.; Perrin, R.L. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering

    1997-12-01

    Results of electrochemical aqueous-corrosion studies at room temperature indicate that retained in-service-type high-temperature surface oxides (1000 C in air for 24 hours) on FA-129, FAL and FAL-Mo iron aluminides cause major reductions in pitting corrosion resistance in a mild acid-chloride solution designed to simulate aggressive atmospheric corrosion. Removal of the oxides by mechanical grinding restores the corrosion resistance. In a more aggressive sodium tetrathionate solution, designed to simulate an aqueous environment contaminated by sulfur-bearing combustion products, only active corrosion occurs for both the 1000 C oxide and mechanically cleaned surfaces at FAL. Results of slow-strain-rate stress-corrosion-cracking tests on FA-129, FAL and FAL-Mo at free-corrosion and hydrogen-charging potentials in the mild acid chloride solution indicate somewhat higher ductilities (on the order of 50%) for the 1000 C oxides retard the penetration of hydrogen into the metal substrates and, consequently, are beneficial in terms of improving resistance to environmental embrittlement. In the aggressive sodium tetrathionate solution, no differences are observed in the ductilities produced by the 1000 C oxide and mechanically cleaned surfaces for FAL.

  8. Bundesforschungsanstalt fuer Landwirtschaft Braunschweig-Voelkenrode (FAL). Annual report 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The tasks of the Bundesforschungsanstalt in the field of agricultural science and related sciences include research, the publication of scientific results, and the fostering of international cooperation with scientists and institutions. In the area preservation and optimization of the quality of soil, plant production and animal breeding, the objectives are also to record and evaluate alien and harmful substances, including radioactive materials, in agrarian ecosystems. Furthermore, investigations are carried through on the avoidance of health-endangering effects and hazards for farm-workers involving the risk of accidents. (ECB) [de

  9. Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, James P.

    Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risks of renewable energy requirements. While the dissertation focuses on a specific policy, the research methods and findings are applicable to other renewable energy requirement policies. In the dissertation, I analyze six strategies for implementing a 25 x 25 policy across several hundred scenarios that represent plausible futures for uncertainties in energy markets, such as renewable energy costs, energy demand, and fossil fuel prices. The strategies vary in the availability of resources that qualify towards the policy requirement and the use of a "safety valve" that allows refiners and utilities to pay a constant fee after renewable energy costs reach a predetermined threshold. I test

  10. The Risks and Rewards of Value-Based Reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Robert J; Maryland, Patricia A

    2015-01-01

    As healthcare systems across the country shift to value-based care, they face an enormous challenge. Not only must they reimagine how they identify, engage, and manage the care of patients, they also need to determine new ways of engaging and aligning physicians and other caregivers in creating better-coordinated care across the continuum. This article explores how healthcare systems making the transition from volume to value can maximize their reward while managing their risk. As the largest not-for-profit healthcare system in the United States and the largest Catholic healthcare system in the world, Ascension is committed to making its own transition, marked by broad-based innovation. We call this goal the Quadruple Aim: improving health outcomes, patient experiences, and provider experiences while lowering the overall cost of care. Healthcare systems and providers have many value-based models to choose from, including pay for performance (P4P), shared savings, bundled payments, shared risk, global capitation, and provider-sponsored health plans. Analysis of these options should include an evaluation of market readiness (i.e., the ability of a health system to align with the needs of employers or commercial insurers in a given market). Healthcare systems also must be prepared to invest in resources that facilitate effective transitions and continuity of care--for example, care management. In addition, they need to recognize that as they focus on wellness, inpatient volumes will decline, requiring cost-structure adjustments and added ancillary services to compensate for this decline. Some healthcare systems are even exploring the possibility of becoming their own payer, taking on more risk and responsibility for the health of patients and populations.

  11. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  12. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  13. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  14. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

    2009-01-01

    We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

  15. A comprehensive review of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarei, Sara; Carr, Karen; Reiley, Luz; Diaz, Kelvin; Guerra, Orleiquis; Altamirano, Pablo Fernandez; Pagani, Wilfredo; Lodin, Daud; Orozco, Gloria; Chinea, Angel

    2015-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a late-onset fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting motor neurons with an incidence of about 1/100,000. Most ALS cases are sporadic, but 5–10% of the cases are familial ALS. Both sporadic and familial ALS (FALS) are associated with degeneration of cortical and spinal motor neurons. The etiology of ALS remains unknown. However, mutations of superoxide dismutase 1 have been known as the most common cause of FALS. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of ALS. We cover all aspects of the disease including epidemiology, comorbidities, environmental risk factor, molecular mechanism, genetic factors, symptoms, diagnostic, treatment, and even the available supplement and management of ALS. This will provide the reader with an advantage of receiving a broad range of information about the disease. PMID:26629397

  16. Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 573: Alpha Contaminated Sites Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick [Nevada Site Office, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2016-02-01

    CAU 573 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs): • 05-23-02, GMX Alpha Contaminated Area • 05-45-01, Atmospheric Test Site - Hamilton These two CASs include the release at the Hamilton weapons-related tower test and a series of 29 atmospheric experiments conducted at GMX. The two CASs are located in two distinctly separate areas within Area 5. To facilitate site investigation and data quality objective (DQO) decisions, all identified releases (i.e., CAS components) were organized into study groups. The reporting of investigation results and the evaluation of DQO decisions are at the release level. The corrective action alternatives (CAAs) were evaluated at the FFACO CAS level. The purpose of this CADD/CAP is to evaluate potential CAAs, provide the rationale for the selection of recommended CAAs, and provide the plan for implementation of the recommended CAA for CAU 573. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from January 2015 through November 2015, as set forth in the CAU 573 Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP). Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against appropriate final action levels (FALs) to identify the contaminants of concern. Assessment of the data generated from investigation activities conducted at CAU 573 revealed the following: • Radiological contamination within CAU 573 does not exceed the FALs (based on the Occasional Use Area exposure scenario). • Chemical contamination within CAU 573 does not exceed the FALs. • Potential source material—including lead plates, lead bricks, and lead-shielded cables—was removed during the investigation and requires no additional corrective action.

  17. Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 573: Alpha Contaminated Sites Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    CAU 573 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs): • 05-23-02, GMX Alpha Contaminated Area • 05-45-01, Atmospheric Test Site - Hamilton These two CASs include the release at the Hamilton weapons-related tower test and a series of 29 atmospheric experiments conducted at GMX. The two CASs are located in two distinctly separate areas within Area 5. To facilitate site investigation and data quality objective (DQO) decisions, all identified releases (i.e., CAS components) were organized into study groups. The reporting of investigation results and the evaluation of DQO decisions are at the release level. The corrective action alternatives (CAAs) were evaluated at the FFACO CAS level. The purpose of this CADD/CAP is to evaluate potential CAAs, provide the rationale for the selection of recommended CAAs, and provide the plan for implementation of the recommended CAA for CAU 573. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from January 2015 through November 2015, as set forth in the CAU 573 Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP). Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against appropriate final action levels (FALs) to identify the contaminants of concern. Assessment of the data generated from investigation activities conducted at CAU 573 revealed the following: • Radiological contamination within CAU 573 does not exceed the FALs (based on the Occasional Use Area exposure scenario). • Chemical contamination within CAU 573 does not exceed the FALs. • Potential source material - including lead plates, lead bricks, and lead-shielded cables was removed during the investigation and requires no additional corrective action.

  18. Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Henan

    2017-12-01

    Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

  19. Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 574: Neptune, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 574 is identified in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) as 'Neptune' and consists of the following two Corrective Action Sites (CASs), located in Area 12 of the Nevada National Security Site: (1) CAS 12-23-10, U12c.03 Crater (Neptune); and (2) CAS 12-45-01, U12e.05 Crater (Blanca). This Closure Report presents information supporting closure of CAU 574 according to the FFACO (FFACO, 1996 [as amended March 2010]) and the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration Plan for CAU 574 (U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office [NNSA/NSO], 2011). The following activities were performed to support closure of CAU 574: (1) In situ external dose rate measurements were collected using thermoluminescent dosimeters at CAS 12-45-01, U12e.05 Crater (Blanca). (2) Total effective dose rates were determined at both sites by summing the internal and external dose rate components. (3) A use restriction (UR) was implemented at CAS 12-23-10, U12c.03 Crater (Neptune). Areas that exceed the final action level (FAL) of 25 millirems per year (mrem/yr) based on the Occasional Use Area exposure scenario are within the existing use restricted area for CAU 551. The 25-mrem/yr FAL is not exceeded outside the existing CAU 551 UR for any of the exposure scenarios (Industrial Area, Remote Work Area, and Occasional Use Area). Therefore, the existing UR for CAU 551 is sufficient to bound contamination that exceeds the FAL. (4) An administrative UR was implemented at CAS 12-45-01, U12e.05 Crater (Blanca) as a best management practice (BMP). The 25-mrem/yr FAL was not exceeded for the Remote Work Area or Occasional Use Area exposure scenarios; therefore, a UR is not required. However, because the 25-mrem/yr FAL was exceeded for the Industrial Area exposure scenario, an administrative UR was established as a BMP. UR documentation is included as Appendix B. The UR at CAS 12-23-10, U12c.03 Crater (Neptune

  20. Photoacoustic Transformation at Oppositely Directed Interaction Electromagnetic Waves in the Magnetoactive Two-Layer Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mityurich G.S.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Celem pracy sa badania nad foto-akustyczna generacja dzwieku w magnetoaktywnych układach dwuwarstwowych, w warunkach interferencji tunelowej fal elektromagnetycznych. Badano warunki całkowitego wytłumienia amplitudy sygnału fotoakustycznego w funkcji polaryzacji przeciwbieznych, oddziałujacych wzajemnie fal, ich faz poczatkowych oraz intensywnosci jednej z przeciwbieznych wiazek. Praca przedstawia efektywna metode sterowania termooptyczna generacja dzwieku w strukturach magnetoaktywnych, podczas tunelowej interferencji fal elektromagnetycznych.

  1. The Research on Safety Management Information System of Railway Passenger Based on Risk Management Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenmin; Jia, Yuanhua

    2018-01-01

    Based on the risk management theory and the PDCA cycle model, requirements of the railway passenger transport safety production is analyzed, and the establishment of the security risk assessment team is proposed to manage risk by FTA with Delphi from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The safety production committee is also established to accomplish performance appraisal, which is for further ensuring the correctness of risk management results, optimizing the safety management business processes and improving risk management capabilities. The basic framework and risk information database of risk management information system of railway passenger transport safety are designed by Ajax, Web Services and SQL technologies. The system realizes functions about risk management, performance appraisal and data management, and provides an efficient and convenient information management platform for railway passenger safety manager.

  2. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  3. Risk and safety requirements for diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in allergology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kowalski, Marek L; Ansotegui, Ignacio; Aberer, Werner

    2016-01-01

    One of the major concerns in the practice of allergy is related to the safety of procedures for the diagnosis and treatment of allergic disease. Management (diagnosis and treatment) of hypersensitivity disorders involves often intentional exposure to potentially allergenic substances (during skin...... attempted to present general requirements necessary to assure the safety of these procedures. Following review of available literature a group of allergy experts within the World Allergy Organization (WAO), representing various continents and areas of allergy expertise, presents this report on risk...... associated with diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in allergology and proposes a consensus on safety requirements for performing procedures in allergy offices. Optimal safety measures including appropriate location, type and required time of supervision, availability of safety equipment, access...

  4. Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

    2005-10-01

    Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

  5. Chemical Exposure Assessment Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory: A risk based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    The University of California Contract And DOE Order 5480.10 require that Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) perform health hazard assessments/inventories of all employee workplaces. In response to this LANL has developed the Chemical Exposure Assessment Program. This program provides a systematic risk-based approach to anticipation, recognition, evaluation and control of chemical workplace exposures. Program implementation focuses resources on exposures with the highest risks for causing adverse health effects. Implementation guidance includes procedures for basic characterization, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative validation, and recommendations and reevaluation. Each component of the program is described. It is shown how a systematic method of assessment improves documentation, retrieval, and use of generated exposure information

  6. Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

  7. Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

    2017-04-01

    In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

  8. 77 FR 593 - Enhanced Prudential Standards and Early Remediation Requirements for Covered Companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-05

    ... standards include risk-based capital and leverage requirements, liquidity standards, requirements for overall risk management (including establishing a risk committee), single-counterparty credit limits...-counterparty credit limits; (iv) overall risk management and risk committees; (v) stress tests; and (vi) a debt...

  9. Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

  10. Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

    2016-10-01

    This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  12. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  13. Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, David

    2008-01-01

    The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

  14. Individual housing-based socioeconomic status predicts risk of accidental falls among adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Euijung; Juhn, Young J; Wheeler, Philip H; Hathcock, Matthew A; Wi, Chung-Il; Olson, Janet E; Cerhan, James R; Takahashi, Paul Y

    2017-07-01

    Accidental falls are a major public health concern among people of all ages. Little is known about whether an individual-level housing-based socioeconomic status measure is associated with the risk of accidental falls. Among 12,286 Mayo Clinic Biobank participants residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, subjects who experienced accidental falls between the biobank enrollment and September 2014 were identified using ICD-9 codes evaluated at emergency departments. HOUSES (HOUsing-based Index of SocioEconomic Status), a socioeconomic status measure based on individual housing features, was also calculated. Cox regression models were utilized to assess the association of the HOUSES (in quartiles) with accidental fall risk. Seven hundred eleven (5.8%) participants had at least one emergency room visit due to an accidental fall during the study period. Subjects with higher HOUSES were less likely to experience falls in a dose-response manner (hazard ratio: 0.58; 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.76 for comparing the highest to the lowest quartile). In addition, the HOUSES was positively associated with better health behaviors, social support, and functional status. The HOUSES is inversely associated with accidental fall risk requiring emergency care in a dose-response manner. The HOUSES may capture falls-related risk factors through housing features and socioeconomic status-related psychosocial factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

  16. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E. [BNFL Fuel Solutions, Campbell, CA (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads.

  17. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads

  18. Automated analysis of security requirements through risk-based argumentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Yijun; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Tun, Thein Tan; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Nuseibeh, Bashar

    2015-01-01

    Computer-based systems are increasingly being exposed to evolving security threats, which often reveal new vulnerabilities. A formal analysis of the evolving threats is difficult due to a number of practical considerations such as incomplete knowledge about the design, limited information about

  19. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  20. IT Risk register

    OpenAIRE

    Kohout, Karel

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing...

  1. A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakes, Benjamin Donald; Mattsson, Lars-Göran; Näsman, Per; Glazunov, Andrés Alayón

    2018-01-03

    Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is "replaced" by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. A risk-based monitoring framework for the long term management of used fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garisto, N.C.

    2006-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Management Organization has a mandate from the Government of Canada to consult with the public and to recommend an approach for managing Canada's used nuclear fuel. Three main fuel management methods are being explored and evaluated by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization: disposal in a Deep Geological Repository (DGR); reactor-site extended storage (RES); and centralized extended storage (CES), either above ground or below ground. The used nuclear fuel management system, whether a DGR or an extended storage system will require monitoring. In this study, a risk-based monitoring framework was developed for the used fuel management program. The proposed approach addresses the unique challenges of used fuel management being implemented in a multi-stakeholder process, including: (i) the complexity of the facilities; (ii) the need to consider both science-based risk and perceived risk in the monitoring plans; and (iii) the difficulty in conducting 'invasive' measurements of sealed systems, particularly over a very long time frame. (author)

  3. Development of a risk-based inservice inspection program for a liquid metal reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.W.; Buschman, H.W.

    1996-01-01

    The emerging application of risk-based assessment technology to the operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants holds considerable promise for improving efficiency and reducing operating costs. EBR-II is liquid-metal-cooled fast reactor which operated for thirty years before shutting down in September 1994 due to program termination. Prior to the shutdown of EBR-II, an in-service inspection (ISI) program was developed that exploited certain advantages of the liquid-metal reactor design, e.g., demonstrated passive response to plant upset events, low pressure primary coolant and compatibility of the coolant and reactor materials. Many of the systems cannot be inspected due to inaccessibility of the components. However, application of a risk-based approach provided the basis for reducing or eliminating inspections in some areas that would otherwise be required. Development and implementation of the risk-based ISI program was interrupted by the DOE-mandated shutdown of EBR-II, so the potential benefits of this approach in terms of reduced O and M costs have yet to be realized. Through the development of this program, however it is clear that there is potential for substantial cost-savings while improving the risk-profile of the facility through this approach

  4. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  5. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  6. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  7. Risk-Based Confidentiality Requirements Specification for Outsourced IT Systems (Extended Version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of their IT assets, and to provide proof of this in the form of independent IT audit reports. However, many companies have outsourced various parts of their IT systems to other companies, which potentially threatens the control they have of their IT

  8. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  9. Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 365: Baneberry Contamination Area, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Matthews

    2011-09-01

    Corrective Action Unit 365 comprises one corrective action site (CAS), CAS 08-23-02, U-8d Contamination Area. The purpose of this CADD/CR is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation that no further corrective action is needed for CAU 365 based on the implementation of the corrective action of closure in place with a use restriction (UR). Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from January 18, 2011, through August 2, 2011, as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 365: Baneberry Contamination Area. The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill data needs as defined during the data quality objective (DQO) process. The CAU 365 dataset of investigation results was evaluated based on a data quality assessment. This assessment demonstrated the dataset is complete and acceptable for use in supporting the DQO decisions. Investigation results were evaluated against final action levels (FALs) established in this document. A radiological dose FAL of 25 millirem per year was established based on the Remote Work Area exposure scenario (336 hours of annual exposure). Radiological doses exceeding the FAL were found to be present to the southwest of the Baneberry crater. It was also assumed that radionuclide levels present within the crater and fissure exceed the FAL. Corrective actions were undertaken that consisted of establishing a UR and posting warning signs for the crater, fissure, and the area located to the southwest of the crater where soil concentrations exceeded the FAL. These URs were recorded in the FFACO database; the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) Facility Information Management System; and the NNSA/NSO CAU/CAS files. Therefore, NNSA/NSO provides the following recommendations: (1) No further corrective actions beyond what are described in this document are necessary for CAU 365. (2) A Notice of Completion to

  10. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  11. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

  12. Nested MC-Based Risk Measurement of Complex Portfolios: Acceleration and Energy Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Desmettre

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis and management currently have a strong presence in financial institutions, where high performance and energy efficiency are key requirements for acceleration systems, especially when it comes to intraday analysis. In this regard, we approach the estimation of the widely-employed portfolio risk metrics value-at-risk (VaR and conditional value-at-risk (cVaR by means of nested Monte Carlo (MC simulations. We do so by combining theory and software/hardware implementation. This allows us for the first time to investigate their performance on heterogeneous compute systems and across different compute platforms, namely central processing unit (CPU, many integrated core (MIC architecture XeonPhi, graphics processing unit (GPU, and field-programmable gate array (FPGA. To this end, the OpenCL framework is employed to generate portable code, and the size of the simulations is scaled in order to evaluate variations in performance. Furthermore, we assess different parallelization schemes, and the targeted platforms are evaluated and compared in terms of runtime and energy efficiency. Our implementation also allowed us to derive a new algorithmic optimization regarding the generation of the required random number sequences. Moreover, we provide specific guidelines on how to properly handle these sequences in portable code, and on how to efficiently implement nested MC-based VaR and cVaR simulations on heterogeneous compute systems.

  13. Risk based optimization of technical specifications for operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-12-01

    The objective of the report is to present an overview of the risk and reliability based approaches (using a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA)) for improving nuclear power plant technical specifications (TS). In that case, it will provide an information base to the Member States in seeking PSA based applications to enhance the effectiveness of their technical specifications. To achieve this objective, the report discusses the basic objectives and reasons for seeking TS changes, the methods, data requirements and uses of different types of applications, and an overview of different applications that have been completed, including detailed descriptions of selected applications. Refs, figs and tabs

  14. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  15. A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

    2018-03-01

    For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

  16. Component Degradation Susceptibilities As The Bases For Modeling Reactor Aging Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.

    2010-01-01

    The extension of nuclear power plant operating licenses beyond 60 years in the United States will be necessary if we are to meet national energy needs while addressing the issues of carbon and climate. Characterizing the operating risks associated with aging reactors is problematic because the principal tool for risk-informed decision-making, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is not ideally-suited to addressing aging systems. The components most likely to drive risk in an aging reactor - the passives - receive limited treatment in PRA, and furthermore, standard PRA methods are based on the assumption of stationary failure rates: a condition unlikely to be met in an aging system. A critical barrier to modeling passives aging on the wide scale required for a PRA is that there is seldom sufficient field data to populate parametric failure models, and nor is there the availability of practical physics models to predict out-year component reliability. The methodology described here circumvents some of these data and modeling needs by using materials degradation metrics, integrated with conventional PRA models, to produce risk importance measures for specific aging mechanisms and component types. We suggest that these measures have multiple applications, from the risk-screening of components to the prioritization of materials research.

  17. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  18. Valorization of lignite combustion residues and ferroalumina in the production of aggregates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulos, I M; Stivanakis, V E; Angelopoulos, G N; Papamantellos, D C

    2010-02-15

    The present research study investigates the synergy of industrial solid by-products from lignite combustion (fly ash and bottom ash) and aluminum production (ferroalumina) in the production of lightweight aggregates (LWA). The process consists of two stages, pelletization and sintering. Bottom ash (BA) is used as the principal raw material in mixtures while ferroalumina (FAL) is added in lower percentages (5-30 wt%). BA carbon content is used as the fuel of sintering process in high temperatures, around 1250 degrees C, and gas generation is responsible for porous structure formation. Physical properties such as porosity, water absorption and bulk density, of sintering products are measured. Increase of FAL percentage in sintering mixtures results in decrease of porosity from 61% to 35% and of water absorption from 61% to 21% and in increase of bulk density from 1.02 g/cm(3) to 1.80 g/cm(3) of the produced aggregates. Aggregates produced by FAL addition up to 20 wt% are characterized as LWA. Aggregates formed are used in the production of concrete specimens. Compressive strength of concrete increases by increasing FAL addition in aggregates from 5 wt% to 15 wt% (highest strength value), while decrease by increasing FAL addition from 20 wt% to 30 wt%. FAL addition in lignite ashes sintering mixtures (up to 15 wt%) is considered as an important parameter for enhancing aggregates strength.

  19. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  20. Risk-based transfer responses to climate change, simulated through autocorrelated stochastic methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, B.; Characklis, G. W.

    2009-12-01

    Maintaining municipal water supply reliability despite growing demands can be achieved through a variety of mechanisms, including supply strategies such as temporary transfers. However, much of the attention on transfers has been focused on market-based transfers in the western United States largely ignoring the potential for transfers in the eastern U.S. The different legal framework of the eastern and western U.S. leads to characteristic differences between their respective transfers. Western transfers tend to be agricultural-to-urban and involve raw, untreated water, with the transfer often involving a simple change in the location and/or timing of withdrawals. Eastern transfers tend to be contractually established urban-to-urban transfers of treated water, thereby requiring the infrastructure to transfer water between utilities. Utilities require the tools to be able to evaluate transfer decision rules and the resulting expected future transfer behavior. Given the long-term planning horizons of utilities, potential changes in hydrologic patterns due to climate change must be considered. In response, this research develops a method for generating a stochastic time series that reproduces the historic autocorrelation and can be adapted to accommodate future climate scenarios. While analogous in operation to an autoregressive model, this method reproduces the seasonal autocorrelation structure, as opposed to assuming the strict stationarity produced by an autoregressive model. Such urban-to-urban transfers are designed to be rare, transient events used primarily during times of severe drought, and incorporating Monte Carlo techniques allows for the development of probability distributions of likely outcomes. This research evaluates a system risk-based, urban-to-urban transfer agreement between three utilities in the Triangle region of North Carolina. Two utilities maintain their own surface water supplies in adjoining watersheds and look to obtain transfers via

  1. FUS-immunoreactive inclusions are a common feature in sporadic and non-SOD1 familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Han-Xiang; Zhai, Hong; Bigio, Eileen H; Yan, Jianhua; Fecto, Faisal; Ajroud, Kaouther; Mishra, Manjari; Ajroud-Driss, Senda; Heller, Scott; Sufit, Robert; Siddique, Nailah; Mugnaini, Enrico; Siddique, Teepu

    2010-06-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal disorder of motor neuron degeneration. Most cases of ALS are sporadic (SALS), but about 5 to 10% of ALS cases are familial (FALS). Recent studies have shown that mutations in FUS are causal in approximately 4 to 5% of FALS and some apparent SALS cases. The pathogenic mechanism of the mutant FUS-mediated ALS and potential roles of FUS in non-FUS ALS remain to be investigated. Immunostaining was performed on postmortem spinal cords from 78 ALS cases, including SALS (n = 52), ALS with dementia (ALS/dementia, n = 10), and FALS (n = 16). In addition, postmortem brains or spinal cords from 22 cases with or without frontotemporal lobar degeneration were also studied. In total, 100 cases were studied. FUS-immunoreactive inclusions were observed in spinal anterior horn neurons in all SALS and FALS cases, except for those with SOD1 mutations. The FUS-containing inclusions were also immunoreactive with antibodies to TDP43, p62, and ubiquitin. A fraction of tested FUS antibodies recognized FUS inclusions, and specific antigen retrieval protocol appeared to be important for detection of the skein-like FUS inclusions. Although mutations in FUS account for only a small fraction of FALS and SALS, our data suggest that FUS protein may be a common component of the cellular inclusions in non-SOD1 ALS and some other neurodegenerative conditions, implying a shared pathogenic pathway underlying SALS, non-SOD1 FALS, ALS/dementia, and related disorders. Our data also indicate that SOD1-linked ALS may have a pathogenic pathway distinct from SALS and other types of FALS.

  2. Pęknięcie nerki jako rzadkie powikłanie zabiegu ESWL (kruszenie kamieni falą generowaną pozaustrojowo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Ząbkowski

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Kruszenie kamieni falą generowaną pozaustrojowo (extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, ESWL należy do podstawowych metod leczenia kamicy nerkowej – zyskała ona szerokie zastosowanie jako metoda małoinwazyjna i skuteczna. Wraz ze wzrostem doświadczenia urologów wykonujących zabiegi litotrypsji oraz udoskonalaniem litotryptorów wzrasta skuteczność wykonywanych zabiegów. Autorzy przedstawiają niezmiernie rzadkie powikłanie po zabiegu ESWL pod postacią pęknięcia nerki i masywnego krwawienia do przestrzeni zaotrzewnowej. Siedemdziesięcioośmioletni pacjent z małopłytkowością, po zabiegu by-passów (coronary artery bypass graft, CABG, po implantacji układu stymulującego serca, z nadciśnieniem tętniczym i cukrzycą typu II, leczony doustnymi antykoagulantami został przyjęty do Kliniki Urologicznej 6 godzin po zabiegu ESWL w trybie pilnym z powodu pogarszającego się stanu ogólnego, narastających dolegliwości bólowych w lewej okolicy lędźwiowej i masywnego krwiomoczu. Po przeprowadzeniu badania podmiotowego, przedmiotowego i na podstawie wykonanych badań dodatkowych (tomografia komputerowa jamy brzusznej rozpoznano pęknięcie nerki z masywnym krwiakiem przestrzeni zaotrzewnowej. Chorego zakwalifikowano w trybie pilnym do leczenia operacyjnego. Śródoperacyjnie stwierdzono ogromny krwiak wypełniający przestrzeń zaotrzewnową wokół nerki lewej i schodzący do lewego dołu biodrowego oraz masywne krwawienie z całej powierzchni uszkodzonej nerki bez możliwości opanowania krwawienia. Wobec powyższego obrazu podjęto decyzję o wycięciu nerki lewej. Z uwagi na stwierdzone płaszczyznowe krwawienie w otaczających tkankach i brak pewności co do ostatecznej hemostazy zdecydowano wykonać packing – założono 6 serwet do przestrzeni zaotrzewnowej. We wczesnym okresie pooperacyjnym nie stwierdzono powikłań. Pacjent krążeniowo, oddechowo i nerkowo wydolny. W 3. dobie od zabiegu w trybie planowym usuni

  3. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

  4. Methodology for risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valle, Antonio Torres; Oliva, Jose de Jesus Rivero

    2012-01-01

    The hazardous configurations control in Nuclear Power Plants is an application of a previous Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). A more complete option would be the risk monitoring for the online detection of these configurations but expert personnel would be required to deal with the complexities of PSA and risk monitor. The paper presents a simpler but effective approach: a method of configuration control, based on dependencies matrixes. The algorithm is included in a computer code called SECURE A-Z. The configuration control is carried out in a qualitative way, without previous PSA results and not using a Risk Monitor. The simplicity of the method warrants its application to facilities where these tools have not been developed, allowing the detection of hazardous configurations during operation and increasing plant safety. This configuration control system was implemented in the Embalse Nuclear Power Plant in Argentina. The paper shows the application of the algorithm to the analysis of a simplified safety system. (author)

  5. Revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Updating requirements based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Accidents (3). Fragility evaluation and outline of the updated points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Akira; Nakamura, Susumu; Mihara, Yoshinori

    2014-01-01

    Lessons learned from Great East Japan earthquake and other new findings had been accumulated on the fragility evaluation of buildings and components. And also new analysis and evaluation method had been proposed with the advancement of recent analysis and evaluation technology. These were reflected in revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Scope of the fragility evaluation were extended to all equipment on the site, severe accident management equipment including portable equipment and earthquake concomitant incident (such as tsunami) countermeasure equipment. This article described outlines of updating points of the fragility evaluation of the AESJ Standard for Seismic PRA; (1) requirements for seismic induced other risk evaluations such as fire, inundation and tsunami, (2) simulation technology based on recent findings such as three dimensional responses of buildings / structures and its effect on equipment, (3) requirements of the fragility evaluation for various failure mode of several equipment such as severe accident management equipment, fine failure mode of buildings / structures, failures of equipment related with earthquake concomitant incidents (embankment and seawall) and spent fuel pool, and (4) requirements for the fragility evaluation of aftershocks and soil deformation due to fault displacement. (T. Tanaka)

  6. Operational risk in bank governance and control: How to save capital requirement through a risk transfer strategy. Evidences from a simulated case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enzo Scannella

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Operational risk management in banking has assumed such importance during the last decade. It has become increasingly important to measure, manage, and assess the impact of operational risk in the economics of banking. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how an effective operational risk management provides mitigating effects on capital-at-risk in banking. The paper provides evidences that an implementation of an operational risk transfer strategy reduces bank capital requirement. The paper adopts the loss distribution approach, the Monte Carlo simulation, and copula methodologies to estimate the regulatory capital and simulate an operational risk transfer strategy in banking.

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  8. An Engineering Method of Civil Jet Requirements Validation Based on Requirements Project Principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yue; Gao, Dan; Mao, Xuming

    2018-03-01

    A method of requirements validation is developed and defined to meet the needs of civil jet requirements validation in product development. Based on requirements project principle, this method will not affect the conventional design elements, and can effectively connect the requirements with design. It realizes the modern civil jet development concept, which is “requirement is the origin, design is the basis”. So far, the method has been successfully applied in civil jet aircraft development in China. Taking takeoff field length as an example, the validation process and the validation method of the requirements are detailed introduced in the study, with the hope of providing the experiences to other civil jet product design.

  9. Payload Safety: Risk and Characteristic-Based Control of Engineered Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou, Seraphin Chally; Saad, Maarouf

    2013-09-01

    In the last decade progress has been made to assist organizations that are developing payloads intended for flight on the International Space Station (ISS) and/or Space Shuttle. Collaboration programs for comprehensive risk assessment have been initiated between the U.S. and the European Union to generate requirements and data needed to comply with payloads safety and to perform risk assessment and controls guidance. Yet, substantial research gaps remain, as do challenges in the translation of these research findings to control for exposure to nanoscale material payloads, and the health effects. Since nanomaterial structures are different from traditional molecules, some standard material properties can change at size of 50nm or less. Changes in material properties at this scale challenge our understanding of hazards posed by nanomaterial payloads in the ISS realistic exposure conditions, and our ability to anticipate, evaluate, and control potential health issues, and safety. The research question addressed in this framework is: what kind of descriptors can be developed for nanomaterial payloads risks assessment? Methods proposed incorporate elements of characteristic- based risk an alysis: (1) to enable characterization of anthropogenic nanomaterials which can result in incidental from natural nanoparticles; and (2) to better understand safety attributes in terms of human health impacts from exposure to varying types of engineered nanomaterials.

  10. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  11. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  12. Event-based historical value-at-risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

    2012-01-01

    Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

  13. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk-based security cost-benefit analysis: method and example applications - 59381

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyss, Gregory; Hinton, John; Clem, John; Silva, Consuelo; Duran, Felicia A.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Decision makers wish to use risk-based cost-benefit analysis to prioritize security investments. However, understanding security risk requires estimating the likelihood of attack, which is extremely uncertain and depends on unquantifiable psychological factors like dissuasion and deterrence. In addition, the most common performance metric for physical security systems, probability of effectiveness at the design basis threat [P(E)], performs poorly in cost-benefit analysis. It is extremely sensitive to small changes in adversary characteristics when the threat is near a systems breaking point, but very insensitive to those changes under other conditions. This makes it difficult to prioritize investment options on the basis of P(E), especially across multiple targets or facilities. To overcome these obstacles, a Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development project has developed a risk-based security cost-benefit analysis method. This approach characterizes targets by how difficult it would be for adversaries to exploit each targets vulnerabilities to induce consequences. Adversaries generally have success criteria (e.g., adequate or desired consequences and thresholds for likelihood of success), and choose among alternative strategies that meet these criteria while considering their degree of difficulty in achieving their successful outcome. Investments reduce security risk as they reduce the severity of consequences available and/or increase the difficulty for an adversary to successfully accomplish their most advantageous attack

  15. Risk-based analysis of business process executions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alizadeh, M.; Zannone, N.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations need to monitor their business processes to ensure that what actually happens in the system is compliant with the prescribed behavior. Deviations from the prescribed behavior may correspond to violations of security requirements and expose organizations to severe risks. Thus, it is

  16. Safety Culture: A Requirement for New Business Models — Lessons Learned from Other High Risk Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kecklund, L.

    2016-01-01

    -cost subcontractors can turn out to be much more expensive due to interface proliferation. Other negative effects are social dumping by external contractors and loss of competence if procurement requirements are not taking quality and safety issues into account. Based on MTO Safety’s extensive experience in the nuclear domain and work on safety management and safety culture in the aviation, railway and maritime domain, the paper will present lessons learned which are applicable to the nuclear industry for facing the major challenges ahead. Assuring safety is a fundamental requirement for obtaining a licence to operate a business in nuclear power, aviation and railways, thus safety culture is an essential requirement for a successful business. Therefore safety culture must be part of any new business model in high risk industries. In the future safety culture and leadership commitment and skills in creating safety culture will be even more important. The paper will discuss how companies and public utilities are to achieve this and how the regulators are to assess this where learning across industries is a key success factor. (author)

  17. Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – some Canadian and Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phaneuf, M.; Woods, P.; McKee, M.

    2014-01-01

    The uranium producing countries of Canada and Australia have independently developed regulatory frameworks emphasising the importance of human health and ecological risk assessments as core tools for ensuring protection of the environment and public. The value of such an approach is presented as well as practical lessons learned through recent applications of this regulatory model. In May 2000, the Canadian Atomic Energy Control Act was replaced by the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA). This law created the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, whose mission is to protect the health, safety and security of persons and the environment; and to implement Canada’s international commitments on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. From an environmental perspective, the new law added a requirement for the protection of the environment and non-human biota, and a responsibility over hazardous substances in addition to nuclear ones. The NSCA requires the prevention of unreasonable risk to, and adequate provision for the protection of, the environment and the health and safety of the public. It was decided that environmental and public protection would recognize the principles of pollution prevention and ALARA, and that it would be risk based. For Class 1 facilities and uranium mines and mills, Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessments are the core of both the Environmental Assessment process and the licensing process under the Nuclear Safety and Control Act. The Ecological Risk Assessment informs the Effluent and Environmental Monitoring Programs with the resultant monitoring data used to reinforce the risk assessments on a cyclical basis throughout the lifespan of the facility. A number of standards and regulatory documents have been completed supporting this environmental protection framework. In this presentation, a case study is used to illustrate the use of ERA for decision making. In the last decade or so in Australia uranium mining proposals normally require

  18. Rethinking the Risk Management Process for Genetically Engineered Crop Varieties in Small-scale, Traditionally Based Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Cleveland

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Proponents of genetically engineered (GE crops often assume that the risk management used in the industrial world is appropriate for small-scale, traditionally based agriculture in the Third World. Opponents of GE crops often assume that risk management is inappropriate for the Third World, because it is inherently biased in favor of the industrial world. We examine both of these assumptions, by rethinking risk management for GE crops and transgenes, using the example of maize transgene flow from the U.S. to Mexico. Risk management for the Third World is a necessary first step of a broader benefit-cost analysis of GE crops, which would include comparisons with existing varieties and with alternative varieties such as transgenic farmer varieties and organic varieties. Our goal is to use existing information on GE crops and on the social and biological characteristics of Third World agriculture to identify key processes that need to be considered in risk management, and the additional research required to adequately understand them. The four main steps in risk management are hazard identification, risk analysis (exposure x harm, risk evaluation, and risk treatment. We use informal event trees to identify possible exposure to GE crops and transgenes, and resulting biological and social harm; give examples of farmers' ability to evaluate social harm; and discuss the possibilities for risk treatment. We conclude that risk management is relevant for Third World agriculture, but needs to be based on the unique biological and social characteristics of small-scale, traditionally based agriculture, including the knowledge and values of Third World farmers and consumers.

  19. Contagion in the Brazilian interbank currency exchange market: an empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Tannuri-Pianto

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk of contagion is the possibility that the failure of a financial institution affected by an exogenous shock generates the failure of other institutions not initially affected by the shock. As pointed out by Upper and Worms (2002 and others, the domino effect in the payment system depends on the precise pattern of interbank linkages. This paper studies the occurrence of financial contagion after the exogenous failure of an institution authorized to operate in the Brazilian interbank currency market. The data contain information about all the actual transactions that occurred in this market from August 1st, 2000 to October 31st, 2002. The adopted methodology shows the occurrence of contagion propagation in several subsequent rounds after the initial failure. We quantify the number of institutions that breakdown and the financial losses of the market. There is a large increase in the number of failed institutions during the period of the presidential elections in 2002.O risco de contágio é a possibilidade de que a falência de uma instituição financeira afetada por algum choque exógeno gere a falência de outras instituições não afetadas pelo choque inicialmente. Como salienta Upper e Worms (2002 e outros, o efeito dominó no sistema de pagamentos depende do padrão das interligações bancárias. Este artigo estuda a ocorrência de contágio financeiro após a falência exógena de uma instituição autorizada a operar no mercado interbancário de câmbio no Brasil. Os dados contêm informações sobre todas as transações efetivamente realizadas no período 01/08/2000 a 31/10/2002. A metodologia adotada mostra a ocorrência da propagação do contágio após várias rodadas subseqüentes à falência inicial. O artigo quantifica o número de instituições que quebrariam e as perdas financeiras do mercado. Existe um aumento substancial no número de falências durante o período pré-eleitoral em 2002.

  20. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  1. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  2. 12 CFR 932.7 - Reporting requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... to the Finance Board by the 15th business day of each month its risk-based capital requirement by... Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL... close of business of the last business day of the preceding month, or more frequently, as may be...

  3. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  4. Experimental and Theoretical Studies of the Acid-Catalyzed Conversion of Furfuryl Alcohol to Levulinic Acid in Aqueous Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Maldonado, Gretchen M.; Assary, Rajeev S.; Dumesic, James A.; Curtiss, Larry A.

    2012-02-14

    The conversion of furfuryl alcohol (FAL) to levulinic acid over Amberlyst TM 15 in aqueous media was investigated using a combination of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) measurements, isotopic labeling studies, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, and ab initio quantum chemical calculations using the G4MP2 method. The results of these combined studies showed that one of the major reaction pathways takes place via a geminal diol species (4,5,5- trihydroxypentan-2-one, denoted as intermediate A), formed by the addition of two water molecules to FAL, where two of the oxygen atoms from FAL are retained. This geminal diol species can also be produced from another intermediate found to be a dimer-like species, denoted as intermediate B. This dimer-like species is formed at the early stages of reaction, and it can also be converted to intermediate A, indicating that intermediate B is the product of the reaction of FAL with another early intermediate. Quantum chemical calculations suggested this to be a protonated acyclic species. Reaction of this early intermediate with water produces intermediate A, while reaction with FAL produces intermediate B.

  5. Experimental and Theoretical Studies of the Acid-Catalyzed Conversion of Furfuryl Alcohol to Levulinic Acid in Aqueous Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Maldonado, Gretchen; Assary, Rajeev S.; Dumesic, James A; Curtiss, Larry A

    2012-01-01

    The conversion of furfuryl alcohol (FAL) to levulinic acid over AmberlystTM 15 in aqueous media was investigated using a combination of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) measurements, isotopic labeling studies, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, and ab initio quantum chemical calculations using the G4MP2 method. The results of these combined studies showed that one of the major reaction pathways takes place via a geminal diol species (4,5,5-trihydroxypentan-2-one, denoted as intermediate A), formed by the addition of two water molecules to FAL, where two of the oxygen atoms from FAL are retained. This geminal diol species can also be produced from another intermediate found to be a dimer-like species, denoted as intermediate B. This dimer-like species is formed at the early stages of reaction, and it can also be converted to intermediate A, indicating that intermediate B is the product of the reaction of FAL with another early intermediate. Quantum chemical calculations suggested this to be a protonated acyclic species. Reaction of this early intermediate with water produces intermediate A, while reaction with FAL produces intermediate B.

  6. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  7. A closed-loop based framework for design requirement management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Zhinan; Li, Xuemeng; Liu, Zelin

    2014-01-01

    management from product lifecycle, and requirement and requirement management lifecycle views. This paper highlights the importance of requirement lifecycle management and aims at closing the requirement information loop in product lifecycle. Then, it addresses the requirement management in engineering...... design field with focusing on the dynamics nature and incomplete nature of requirements. Finally, a closed-loop based framework is proposed for requirement management in engineering design....

  8. 78 FR 64425 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    ..., 507, and 579 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0922] Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and... requirements for current good manufacturing practice and hazard analysis and risk-based preventive controls for..., packing, or holding of animal food in two ways. First, it would create new current good manufacturing...

  9. Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

  10. Patient-related risk factors for requiring surgical intervention following a failed injection for the treatment of medial and lateral epicondylitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degen, Ryan M; Cancienne, Jourdan M; Camp, Christopher L; Altchek, David W; Dines, Joshua S; Werner, Brian C

    2017-11-01

    To identify risk factors for failure of a therapeutic injection leading to operative management of both medial and lateral epicondylitis. A national database was used to query Medicare Standard Analytic Files from 2005-2012 for patients treated with therapeutic injections for medial or lateral epicondylitis using CPT codes for injections associated with corresponding ICD-9 diagnostic codes (726.31 and 726.32, respectively). Those who subsequently underwent surgical treatment following injection were identified. A multivariate binomial logistic regression analysis was utilized to evaluate patient-related risk factors for requiring surgery within 2 years after therapeutic injection. 1,837 patients received therapeutic injections for medial epicondylitis. 52 (2.8%) required ipsilateral surgery at a mean of 429 ± 28 days post-injection. Risk factors for requiring surgical intervention included age lateral epicondylitis. 201 (3.1%) required subsequent surgery at a mean of 383 ± 128 days' post-injection. Risk factors included age lateral epicondylitis is low (~3%). Risk factors for failing a therapeutic injection include age  30) for medial epicondylitis and age lateral epicondylitis. Patients with these identified risk factors presenting with medial or lateral epicondylitis should be cautioned that they carry a higher risk of subsequent surgical treatment. Therapeutic, III.

  11. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  12. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  13. Life cycle cost-based risk model for energy performance contracting retrofits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berghorn, George H.

    Buildings account for 41% of the primary energy consumption in the United States, nearly half of which is accounted for by commercial buildings. Among the greatest energy users are those in the municipalities, universities, schools, and hospitals (MUSH) market. Correctional facilities are in the upper half of all commercial building types for energy intensity. Public agencies have experienced reduced capital budgets to fund retrofits; this has led to the increased use of energy performance contracts (EPC), which are implemented by energy services companies (ESCOs). These companies guarantee a minimum amount of energy savings resulting from the retrofit activities, which in essence transfers performance risk from the owner to the contractor. Building retrofits in the MUSH market, especially correctional facilities, are well-suited to EPC, yet despite this potential and their high energy intensities, efficiency improvements lag behind that of other public building types. Complexities in project execution, lack of support for data requests and sub-metering, and conflicting project objectives have been cited as reasons for this lag effect. As a result, project-level risks must be understood in order to support wider adoption of retrofits in the public market, in particular the correctional facility sub-market. The goal of this research is to understand risks related to the execution of energy efficiency retrofits delivered via EPC in the MUSH market. To achieve this goal, in-depth analysis and improved understanding was sought with regard to ESCO risks that are unique to EPC in this market. The proposed work contributes to this understanding by developing a life cycle cost-based risk model to improve project decision making with regard to risk control and reduction. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) to perform an exploratory analysis of the EPC retrofit process and identify key areas of performance risk requiring in-depth analysis; (2) to construct a

  14. 12 CFR 225.175 - What risk management, record keeping and reporting policies are required to make merchant banking...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What risk management, record keeping and... risk management, record keeping and reporting policies are required to make merchant banking... conduct, monitor and manage such investment activities and the risks associated with such investment...

  15. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  16. FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

    2015-02-18

    About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer

  17. Integrated Monitoring and Modeling of Carbon Dioxide Leakage Risk Using Remote Sensing, Ground-Based Monitoring, Atmospheric Models and Risk-Indexing Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, E. A.; Pickles, W. L.; Gouveia, F. J.; Bogen, K. T.; Rau, G. H.; Friedmann, J.

    2006-12-01

    estimating its associated risk, spatially and temporally. This requires integration of subsurface, surface and atmospheric data and models. To date, we have developed techniques to map risk based on predicted atmospheric plumes and GIS/MT (meteorologic- topographic) risk-indexing tools. This methodology was derived from study of large CO2 releases from an abandoned well penetrating a natural CO2 reservoir at Crystal Geyser, Utah. This integrated approach will provide a powerful tool to screen for high-risk zones at proposed sequestration sites, to design and optimize surface networks for site monitoring and/or to guide setting science-based regulatory compliance requirements for monitoring sequestration sites, as well as to target critical areas for first responders should a catastrophic-release event occur. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Dept. of Energy by University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.

  18. Risk and safety requirements for diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in allergology: World Allergy Organization Statement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek L. Kowalski

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract One of the major concerns in the practice of allergy is related to the safety of procedures for the diagnosis and treatment of allergic disease. Management (diagnosis and treatment of hypersensitivity disorders involves often intentional exposure to potentially allergenic substances (during skin testing, deliberate induction in the office of allergic symptoms to offending compounds (provocation tests or intentional application of potentially dangerous substances (allergy vaccine to sensitized patients. These situations may be associated with a significant risk of unwanted, excessive or even dangerous reactions, which in many instances cannot be completely avoided. However, adverse reactions can be minimized or even avoided if a physician is fully aware of potential risk and is prepared to appropriately handle the situation. Information on the risk of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in allergic diseases has been accumulated in the medical literature for decades; however, except for allergen specific immunotherapy, it has never been presented in a systematic fashion. Up to now no single document addressed the risk of the most commonly used medical procedures in the allergy office nor attempted to present general requirements necessary to assure the safety of these procedures. Following review of available literature a group of allergy experts within the World Allergy Organization (WAO, representing various continents and areas of allergy expertise, presents this report on risk associated with diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in allergology and proposes a consensus on safety requirements for performing procedures in allergy offices. Optimal safety measures including appropriate location, type and required time of supervision, availability of safety equipment, access to specialized emergency services, etc. for various procedures have been recommended. This document should be useful for allergists with already established

  19. Study on institutionalization of risk-informed performance-based regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, M. G.; Hong, S. Y.; Seo, M. R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-02-15

    In this study, for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation in Korea, the latest technical movements of overseas countries are examined and reviewed. And the issues that was found when license change petition using risk information was submitted in Korean regulatory body are reviewed. Based on these review, the applicable areas to domestic situation will be found and proposed. This study can contribute to setting up the proper direction for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation.

  20. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  1. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  2. Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

    2017-11-01

    Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessment of the potential human health risks from exposure to complex substances in accordance with REACH requirements. "White spirit" as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Richard H; Tibaldi, Rosalie; Adenuga, Moyinoluwa D; Carrillo, Juan-Carlos; Margary, Alison

    2018-02-01

    The European chemical control regulation (REACH) requires that data on physical/chemical, toxicological and environmental hazards be compiled. Additionally, REACH requires formal assessments to ensure that substances can be safely used for their intended purposes. For health hazard assessments, reference values (Derived No Effect levels, DNELs) are calculated from toxicology data and compared to estimated exposure levels. If the ratio of the predicted exposure level to the DNEL, i.e. the Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR), is less than 1, the risk is considered controlled; otherwise, additional Risk Management Measures (RMM) must be applied. These requirements pose particular challenges for complex substances. Herein, "white spirit", a complex hydrocarbon solvent, is used as an example to illustrate how these procedures were applied. Hydrocarbon solvents were divided into categories of similar substances. Representative substances were identified for DNEL determinations. Adjustment factors were applied to the no effect levels to calculate the DNELs. Exposure assessments utilized a standardized set of generic exposure scenarios (GES) which incorporated exposure predictions for solvent handling activities. Computer-based tools were developed to automate RCR calculations and identify appropriate RMMs, allowing consistent communications to users via safety data sheets. Copyright © 2017 ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of risk based inspection as a part of life management of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Babar, A.K.; Saraf, R.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Venkat Raj, V.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Risk Informed approach is a systematic effort to improve plant safety in a more efficient manner by distributing the available safety resources depending on the importance to plant safety. This approach has found immense application in various aspects associated with Nuclear Power Plants, including design, manufacturing, operation and regulation. Typical applications of Risk Informed approach are in Technical Specification, In-Service Inspection (ISI) requirements, Motor Operated Valve testing, Configuration Control etc. In order to cater to such variety of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) based Risk Informed requirements, a software package, 'Risk Monitor' has been developed by the authors. An important application of Risk informed approach that has been undertaken for Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) is towards Risk Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI). Studies are being conducted to evolve an inspection plan that is optimised to provide effective inspections at the right location with a proper inspection frequency. Using risk informed approach, the identification of system / component for inspection resource allocation is based on the results from Level 1 PSA of a NPP. Even though this methodology can be employed on any of the nuclear components/systems such as mechanical systems, instrumentation, etc., as a starting point, piping has been considered for employing Risk Informed Inspection. Plant risk assessment is modelled through the analysis of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) using PSA models. Risk Informed Inspection program of piping involves the estimation of failure probability or frequency of a piping segment and estimation of consequences of piping failures. ISI program changes could affect the failure probability values of piping and can introduce a change in CDF. These effects can be brought out through the implementation of Risk Informed inspection strategy. Various importance measures like Fussel-Vesely, Birnbaum

  5. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  6. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-01-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations

  7. 30 CFR 764.21 - Data base and inventory system requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Data base and inventory system requirements... SURFACE COAL MINING OPERATIONS § 764.21 Data base and inventory system requirements. (a) The regulatory authority shall develop a data base and inventory system which will permit evaluation of whether reclamation...

  8. Developing the skills required for evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, B

    1998-01-01

    The current health care environment requires practitioners with the skills to find and apply the best currently available evidence for effective health care, to contribute to the development of evidence-based practice protocols, and to evaluate the impact of utilizing validated research findings in practice. Current approaches to teaching research are based mainly on gaining skills by participation in the research process. Emphasis on the requirement for rigour in the process of creating new knowledge is assumed to lead to skill in the process of using research information created by others. This article reflects upon the requirements for evidence-based practice, and the degree to which current approaches to teaching research prepare practitioners who are able to find, evaluate and best use currently available research information. The potential for using the principles of systematic review as a teaching and learning strategy for research is explored, and some of the possible strengths and weakness of this approach are highlighted.

  9. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  10. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jidong Chen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

  11. Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

    2010-11-01

    US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

  12. A process for risk-focused maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofgren, E.V.; Cooper, S.E.; Kurth, R.E.; Phillips, L.B.

    1991-03-01

    This report presents a process for focusing maintenance resources on components that enable nuclear plant systems to perform their essential functions and on components whose failure may initiate challenges to safety systems, so as to have the greatest impact in decreasing risk. The process provides criteria, based on risk, for deciding which components are critical to risk and determining what maintenance activities are required to ensure reliable operation of those risk-critical components. Two approaches are provided for selection of risk-critical components. One approach uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA); the other is based on the methodology developed for this report, which has a basis in PRA although it does not use the results of a PRA study. Following identification of risk-critical components, both approaches use a single methodology for determining what maintenance activities are required to ensure reliable operation of the identified components. The report also provides demonstrations of application of the two approaches to selection of risk-critical components and demonstrations of application of the methodology for determining what maintenance activities are required to an active standby safety system, a normally operating system, and passive components. 5 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab

  13. A process for risk-focused maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lofgren, E.V.; Cooper, S.E.; Kurth, R.E.; Phillips, L.B. (Science Applications International Corp., McLean, VA (USA))

    1991-03-01

    This report presents a process for focusing maintenance resources on components that enable nuclear plant systems to perform their essential functions and on components whose failure may initiate challenges to safety systems, so as to have the greatest impact in decreasing risk. The process provides criteria, based on risk, for deciding which components are critical to risk and determining what maintenance activities are required to ensure reliable operation of those risk-critical components. Two approaches are provided for selection of risk-critical components. One approach uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA); the other is based on the methodology developed for this report, which has a basis in PRA although it does not use the results of a PRA study. Following identification of risk-critical components, both approaches use a single methodology for determining what maintenance activities are required to ensure reliable operation of the identified components. The report also provides demonstrations of application of the two approaches to selection of risk-critical components and demonstrations of application of the methodology for determining what maintenance activities are required to an active standby safety system, a normally operating system, and passive components. 5 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 560: Septic Systems, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grant Evenson

    2010-04-01

    Corrective Action Unit 560 comprises seven corrective action sites (CASs): •03-51-01, Leach Pit •06-04-02, Septic Tank •06-05-03, Leach Pit •06-05-04, Leach Bed •06-59-03, Building CP-400 Septic System •06-59-04, Office Trailer Complex Sewage Pond •06-59-05, Control Point Septic System The purpose of this CADD/CR is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation for closure of CAU 560 with no further corrective action. To achieve this, corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from October 7, 2008, through February 24, 2010, as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 560: Septic Systems, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, and Record of Technical Change No. 1. The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill the following data needs as defined during the data quality objective (DQO) process: •Determine whether contaminants of concern (COCs) are present. •If COCs are present, determine their nature and extent. •Provide sufficient information and data to complete appropriate corrective actions. The CAU 560 dataset from the investigation results was evaluated based on the data quality indicator parameters. This evaluation demonstrated the quality and acceptability of the dataset for use in fulfilling the DQO data needs. Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against final action levels (FALs) established in this document. The following contaminants were determined to be present at concentrations exceeding their corresponding FALs: •No contamination exceeding the FALs was identified at CASs 03-51-01, 06-04-02, and 06-59-04. •The soil at the base of the leach pit chamber at CAS 06-05-03 contains arsenic above the FAL of 23 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) above the FAL of 0.74 mg/kg, confined vertically from a depth of approximately 5 to 20 feet (ft) below ground surface. The contamination is confined laterally to the walls of the

  15. Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.

    1995-03-01

    Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.

  16. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  17. Knowledge-based requirements analysis for automating software development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markosian, Lawrence Z.

    1988-01-01

    We present a new software development paradigm that automates the derivation of implementations from requirements. In this paradigm, informally-stated requirements are expressed in a domain-specific requirements specification language. This language is machine-understable and requirements expressed in it are captured in a knowledge base. Once the requirements are captured, more detailed specifications and eventually implementations are derived by the system using transformational synthesis. A key characteristic of the process is that the required human intervention is in the form of providing problem- and domain-specific engineering knowledge, not in writing detailed implementations. We describe a prototype system that applies the paradigm in the realm of communication engineering: the prototype automatically generates implementations of buffers following analysis of the requirements on each buffer.

  18. LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-04-01

    This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

  19. Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

  20. Corrective Action Decision Document for Corrective Action Unit 563: Septic Systems, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grant Evenson

    2008-02-01

    This Corrective Action Decision Document has been prepared for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 563, Septic Systems, in accordance with the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 1996; as amended January 2007). The corrective action sites (CASs) for CAU 563 are located in Areas 3 and 12 of the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, and are comprised of the following four sites: •03-04-02, Area 3 Subdock Septic Tank •03-59-05, Area 3 Subdock Cesspool •12-59-01, Drilling/Welding Shop Septic Tanks •12-60-01, Drilling/Welding Shop Outfalls The purpose of this Corrective Action Decision Document is to identify and provide the rationale for the recommendation of a corrective action alternative (CAA) for the four CASs within CAU 563. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from July 17 through November 19, 2007, as set forth in the CAU 563 Corrective Action Investigation Plan (NNSA/NSO, 2007). Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against appropriate final action levels (FALs) to identify the contaminants of concern (COCs) for each CAS. The results of the CAI identified COCs at one of the four CASs in CAU 563 and required the evaluation of CAAs. Assessment of the data generated from investigation activities conducted at CAU 563 revealed the following: •CASs 03-04-02, 03-59-05, and 12-60-01 do not contain contamination at concentrations exceeding the FALs. •CAS 12-59-01 contains arsenic and chromium contamination above FALs in surface and near-surface soils surrounding a stained location within the site. Based on the evaluation of analytical data from the CAI, review of future and current operations at CAS 12-59-01, and the detailed and comparative analysis of the potential CAAs, the following corrective actions are recommended for CAU 563.

  1. PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

  2. Operational risk quantification and modelling within Romanian insurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tudor Răzvan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at covering and describing the shortcomings of various models used to quantify and model the operational risk within insurance industry with a particular focus on Romanian specific regulation: Norm 6/2015 concerning the operational risk issued by IT systems. While most of the local insurers are focusing on implementing the standard model to compute the Operational Risk solvency capital required, the local regulator has issued a local norm that requires to identify and assess the IT based operational risks from an ISO 27001 perspective. The challenges raised by the correlations assumed in the Standard model are substantially increased by this new regulation that requires only the identification and quantification of the IT operational risks. The solvency capital requirement stipulated by the implementation of Solvency II doesn’t recommend a model or formula on how to integrate the newly identified risks in the Operational Risk capital requirements. In this context we are going to assess the academic and practitioner’s understanding in what concerns: The Frequency-Severity approach, Bayesian estimation techniques, Scenario Analysis and Risk Accounting based on risk units, and how they could support the modelling of operational risk that are IT based. Developing an internal model only for the operational risk capital requirement proved to be, so far, costly and not necessarily beneficial for the local insurers. As the IT component will play a key role in the future of the insurance industry, the result of this analysis will provide a specific approach in operational risk modelling that can be implemented in the context of Solvency II, in a particular situation when (internal or external operational risk databases are scarce or not available.

  3. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  4. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  5. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  6. Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 1: Functional requirements definition, DR-5. Appendix: Requirements data base

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    Appendix A contains data that characterize the system functions in sufficient depth as to determine the requirements for the Space Station Data System (SSDS). This data is in the form of: (1) top down traceability report; (2) bottom up traceability report; (3) requirements data sheets; and (4) cross index of requirements paragraphs of the source documents and the requirements numbers. A data base users guide is included that interested parties can use to access the requirements data base and get up to date information about the functions.

  7. Architecture-based qualitative risk analysis for availability of IT infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.; Hartel, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    An IT risk assessment must deliver the best possible quality of results in a time-effective way. Organisations are used to customise the general-purpose standard risk assessment methods in a way that can satisfy their requirements. In this paper we present the QualTD Model and method, which is meant

  8. Generalized Fragility Relationships with Local Site Conditions for Probabilistic Performance-based Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivathayalan S.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The current practice of detailed seismic risk assessment cannot be easily applied to all the bridges in a large transportation networks due to limited resources. This paper presents a new approach for seismic risk assessment of large bridge inventories in a city or national bridge network based on the framework of probabilistic performance based seismic risk assessment. To account for the influences of local site effects, a procedure to generate site-specific hazard curves that includes seismic hazard microzonation information has been developed for seismic risk assessment of bridge inventories. Simulated ground motions compatible with the site specific seismic hazard are used as input excitations in nonlinear time history analysis of representative bridges for calibration. A normalizing procedure to obtain generalized fragility relationships in terms of structural characteristic parameters of bridge span and size and longitudinal and transverse reinforcement ratios is presented. The seismic risk of bridges in a large inventory can then be easily evaluated using the normalized fragility relationships without the requirement of carrying out detailed nonlinear time history analysis.

  9. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  10. 12 CFR 567.3 - Individual minimum capital requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... association's directors, officers, and senior management as well as the internal control and internal audit... associations; has management deficiencies, including failure to adequately monitor and control financial and... capital requirement for a savings association that varies from the risk-based capital requirement, the...

  11. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  12. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart B of... - Risk-Based Capital Stress Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... required by statute under stipulated conditions of credit risk and interest rate risk. The stress test uses... credit risk, interest rate risk, the cashflow generator, and the capital calculation. Linkages among the components ensure that the measures of credit and interest rate risk pass into the cashflow generator. The...

  13. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  14. Architecture-based Qualitative Risk Analysis for Availability of IT Infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Hartel, Pieter H.

    2009-01-01

    An IT risk assessment must deliver the best possible quality of results in a time-effective way. Organisations are used to customise the general-purpose standard risk assessment methods in a way that can satisfy their requirements. In this paper we present the QualTD Model and method, which is meant

  15. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartley, R.S.; Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-01-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development's (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing

  16. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, R.S. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-12-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development`s (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing.

  17. Risk based knowledge assessments: towards a toolbox for managing key knowledge assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, Clive

    2008-01-01

    Full text: It is now well acknowledged that considerable Knowledge Management (KM) issues are faced by national and international nuclear communities. Much of these problems relate to issues of an ageing workforce and the significantly reduced influx of new generation of nuclear engineers and scientists. The management discipline of KM contains a broad spectrum of methods and techniques. However, the effective implementation of a KM strategy requires the selection and deployment of appropriate and targeted approaches that are pertinent to the particular issues of the technical or business area within an organisation. A clear strategy is contingent upon an assessment of what are the knowledge areas and what are the key (knowledge) risk areas. In particular the following issues have to be addressed: 'what knowledge exists?', 'what is the nature and format of that knowledge?' and 'what knowledge is key to our continued, safe, and effective operation?'. Answers to such questions will enable an organisation to prioritise KM effort and employ subsequent KM approaches that are appropriate. Subsequent approaches ranging from the utilisation of information technologies, such as databases; knowledge retention methods; and the setting up of Community of Practices to share knowledge and experience. This paper considers a risk assessment based approach to KM. In so doing the paper extends work previously reported on an approach to conducting knowledge audits by considering the integration of that approach with approaches to (knowledge) risk assessment. The paper also provides a brief review of the various KM approaches that can act to reduce the level of risk faced by an organisation. The paper concludes by reflecting upon the role, value of deploying such a risk based approach. (author)

  18. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  19. Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Lauren A; Konschnik, Katherine E; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O; Kiesecker, Joseph; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James E

    2017-03-07

    Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m 3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m 3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m 3 . Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

  20. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  1. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  3. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  4. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  5. Toxicity assessment strategies, data requirements, and risk assessment approaches to derive health based guidance values for non-relevant metabolites of plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Melching-Kollmuss, Stephanie; Kalberlah, Fritz

    2010-03-01

    In Europe, limits for tolerable concentrations of "non-relevant metabolites" for active ingredients (AI) of plant protection products in drinking water between 0.1 and 10 microg/L are discussed depending on the toxicological information available. "Non-relevant metabolites" are degradation products of AIs, which do not or only partially retain the targeted toxicities of AIs. For "non-relevant metabolites" without genotoxicity (to be confirmed by testing in vitro), the application of the concept of "thresholds of toxicological concern" results in a health-based drinking water limit of 4.5 microg/L even for Cramer class III compounds, using the TTC threshold of 90 microg/person/day (divided by 10 and 2). Taking into account the thresholds derived from two reproduction toxicity data bases a drinking water limit of 3.0 microg/L is proposed. Therefore, for "non-relevant metabolites" whose drinking water concentration is below 3.0 microg/L, no toxicity testing is necessary. This work develops a toxicity assessment strategy as a basis to delineate health-based limits for "non-relevant metabolites" in ground and drinking water. Toxicological testing is recommended to investigate, whether the metabolites are relevant or not, based on the hazard properties of the parent AIs, as outlined in the SANCO Guidance document. Also, genotoxicity testing of the water metabolites is clearly recommended. In this publication, tiered testing strategies are proposed for non-relevant metabolites, when drinking water concentrations >3.0 microg/L will occur. Conclusions based on structure-activity relationships and the detailed toxicity database on the parent AI should be included. When testing in animals is required for risk assessment, key aspects are studies along OECD-testing guidelines with "enhanced" study designs addressing additional endpoints such as reproductive toxicity and a developmental screening test to derive health-based tolerable drinking water limits with a limited number

  6. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  7. The new European legal culture: ten years on

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hesselink, M.W.

    2009-01-01

    New postscript to: Hesselink, M.W. & Wei, L. (2010). --- Xin de ouzhou falü wenhua. --- Beijing: Zhongguo falü chubanshe. This is the Chinese translation of: Hesselink, M.W. (2001). --- The new European legal culture. --- Deventer : Kluwer. That essay argued that Europe was facing a shift from a

  8. Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-03-01

    To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  10. Development of an active risk-based surveillance strategy for avian influenza in Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, E; Alfonso, P; Ippoliti, C; Abeledo, M; Calistri, P; Blanco, P; Conte, A; Sánchez, B; Fonseca, O; Percedo, M; Pérez, A; Fernández, O; Giovannini, A

    2014-09-01

    The authors designed a risk-based approach to the selection of poultry flocks to be sampled in order to further improve the sensitivity of avian influenza (AI) active surveillance programme in Cuba. The study focused on the western region of Cuba, which harbours nearly 70% of national poultry holdings and comprise several wetlands where migratory waterfowl settle (migratory waterfowl settlements - MWS). The model took into account the potential risk of commercial poultry farms in western Cuba contracting from migratory waterfowl of the orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes through dispersion for pasturing of migratory birds around the MWS. We computed spatial risk index by geographical analysis with Python scripts in ESRI(®) ArcGIS 10 on data projected in the reference system NAD 1927-UTM17. Farms located closer to MWS had the highest values for the risk indicator pj and in total 31 farms were chosen for targeted surveillance during the risk period. The authors proposed to start active surveillance in the study area 3 weeks after the onset of Anseriformes migration, with additional sampling repeated twice in the same selected poultry farms at 15 days interval (Comin et al., 2012; EFSA, 2008) to cover the whole migration season. In this way, the antibody detectability would be favoured in case of either a posterior AI introduction or enhancement of a previous seroprevalence under the sensitivity level. The model identified the areas with higher risk for AIV introduction from MW, aiming at selecting poultry premises for the application of risk-based surveillance. Given the infrequency of HPAI introduction into domestic poultry populations and the relative paucity of occurrences of LPAI epidemics, the evaluation of the effectiveness of this approach would require its application for several migration seasons to allow the collection of sufficient reliable data. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  12. 12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

  13. Classificação de gravidade na pancreatite aguda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tercio De Campos

    Full Text Available De acordo com a Classificação de Atlanta a pancreatite aguda pode ser dividida, baseado em sua severidade, em uma forma leve ou grave. Uma série de aspectos têm sido discutidos nos últimos anos, tais como, quantas categorias de gravidade devem ser consideradas; se o doente com falência orgânica é igual ao doente com necrose infectada; qual o papel da falência orgânica transitória; e como avaliar a falência orgânica. A reunião de revista"Telemedicina Baseada em Evidência - Cirurgia do Trauma e Emergência" (TBE-CiTE realizou uma avaliação crítica de artigos relacionados a este tema, considerando três artigos recentes que delinearam duas grandes revisões publicadas nos últimos meses. Estes artigos sugerem a classificação de gravidade em três ou quatro categorias, ao invés de pancreatite aguda leve ou grave, além de discutir qual o melhor escore para avaliar a falência orgânica. As seguintes recomendações foram propostas: (1 A pancreatite aguda deve ser classificada em quatro categorias: leve, moderada, grave e crítica, o que permite uma melhor determinação das características dos doentes; (2 Avaliação de falência orgânica com um escore de gravidade, preferencialmente algum que avalie diretamente cada falência orgânica, tais como o SOFA e o MODS (Marshall. O SOFA parece ter maior acurácia, mas o MODS tem melhor aplicabilidade devido à facilidade de uso.

  14. Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

  15. New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, S R

    2000-01-01

    For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

  16. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. II: Graded testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents a graded approach to the testing of crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods based on concern levels in a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) and currently available testing methods. A graded approach offers the potential for more efficient use of testing resources by focusing less on lower concern GM foods, and more on higher concern foods. In this proposed approach to graded testing, products that are classified as Level I would have met baseline testing requirements that are comparable to what is widely applied to premarket assessment of GM foods at present. In most cases, Level I products would require no further testing, or very limited confirmatory analyses. For products classified as Level II or higher, additional testing would be required, depending on the type of the substance, prior dietary history, estimated exposure level, prior knowledge of toxicity of the substance, and the nature of the concern related to unintended changes in the modified food. Level III testing applies only to the assessment of toxic and antinutritional effects from intended changes and is tailored to the nature of the substance in question. Since appropriate test methods are not currently available for all effects of concern, future research to strengthen the testing of GM foods is discussed.

  17. Software requirements management based on use cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Jin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the requirements management based on use cases is theoretically explored, and a multi-layer use-case model is introduced, which combined with three levels of use cases and a single use-case refinement model. Through the practice in a software project, the multi-layer use-case model provides a good solution on how to control the requirements scope and change, and provides the balance of work assignment between customer departments, information management departments and software development outsourcing team. (authors)

  18. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cloninger, T.H.

    1997-01-01

    This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

  19. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  20. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonova, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

  1. An agent based architecture for high-risk neonate management at neonatal intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malak, Jaleh Shoshtarian; Safdari, Reza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Nayeri, Fatemeh Sadat; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Farajollah, Seide Sedighe Seied

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, the use of new tools and technologies has decreased the neonatal mortality rate. Despite the positive effect of using these technologies, the decisions are complex and uncertain in critical conditions when the neonate is preterm or has a low birth weight or malformations. There is a need to automate the high-risk neonate management process by creating real-time and more precise decision support tools. To create a collaborative and real-time environment to manage neonates with critical conditions at the NICU (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit) and to overcome high-risk neonate management weaknesses by applying a multi agent based analysis and design methodology as a new solution for NICU management. This study was a basic research for medical informatics method development that was carried out in 2017. The requirement analysis was done by reviewing articles on NICU Decision Support Systems. PubMed, Science Direct, and IEEE databases were searched. Only English articles published after 1990 were included; also, a needs assessment was done by reviewing the extracted features and current processes at the NICU environment where the research was conducted. We analyzed the requirements and identified the main system roles (agents) and interactions by a comparative study of existing NICU decision support systems. The Universal Multi Agent Platform (UMAP) was applied to implement a prototype of our multi agent based high-risk neonate management architecture. Local environment agents interacted inside a container and each container interacted with external resources, including other NICU systems and consultation centers. In the NICU container, the main identified agents were reception, monitoring, NICU registry, and outcome prediction, which interacted with human agents including nurses and physicians. Managing patients at the NICU units requires online data collection, real-time collaboration, and management of many components. Multi agent systems are applied as

  2. Using ensemble weather forecast in a risk based real time optimization of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2015-01-01

    Global Real Time Control (RTC) of urban drainage system is increasingly seen as cost-effective solution in order to respond to increasing performance demand (e.g. reduction of Combined Sewer Overflow, protection of sensitive areas as bathing water etc.). The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA......) strategy was developed to operate Urban Drainage Systems (UDS) in order to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, the expected runoff volume based on a 2-hours radar forecast model and an estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecast....... However, such temporal horizon (1-2 hours) is relatively short when used for the operation of large storage facilities, which may require a few days to be emptied. This limits the performance of the optimization and control in reducing combined sewer overflow and in preparing for possible flooding. Based...

  3. Application of Total Quality Management (TQM) Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Entisar K. Al-Geelawee; Anfal Nadhel Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be a...

  4. Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 571: Area 9 Yucca Flat Plutonium Dispersion Sites, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, Bernadine; Matthews, Patrick

    2013-07-01

    CAU 571 is a grouping of sites where there has been a suspected release of contamination associated with nuclear testing. This document describes the planned investigation of CAU 571, which comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs): • 09-23-03, Atmospheric Test Site S-9F • 09-23-04, Atmospheric Test Site T9-C • 09-23-12, Atmospheric Test Site S-9E • 09-23-13, Atmospheric Test Site T-9D • 09-45-01, Windrows Crater These sites are being investigated because existing information on the nature and extent of potential contamination is insufficient to evaluate and recommend corrective action alternatives (CAAs). Additional information will be obtained by conducting a corrective action investigation before evaluating CAAs and selecting the appropriate corrective action for each CAS. The results of the field investigation will support a defensible evaluation of viable CAAs that will be presented in the investigation report. The sites will be investigated based on the data quality objectives (DQOs) developed on March 6, 2013, by representatives of the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office (now the Nevada Field Office). The DQO process was used to identify and define the type, amount, and quality of data needed to develop and evaluate appropriate corrective actions for CAU 571. The site investigation process will also be conducted in accordance with the Soils Activity Quality Assurance Plan, which establishes requirements, technical planning, and general quality practices to be applied to this activity. The potential contamination sources associated with CAU 571 CASs are from nuclear testing activities. The DQO process resulted in an assumption that total effective dose (TED) within a default contamination boundary exceeds the final action level (FAL) and requires corrective action. The presence and nature of contamination outside the default

  5. Knowledge-based support system for requirement elaboration in design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuta, Kazuo; Kondo, Shunsuke

    1994-01-01

    Design requirements are the seeds of every design activity, but elicitation and formalization of them are not easy tasks. This paper proposes a method to support designers in such requirement elaboration process with a computer. In this method the cognitive work space of designers is modeled by abstraction and structural hierarchies, and supporting functions of knowledge-based requirement elaboration, requirement classification and assessment of contentment status of requirements are provided on this framework. A prototype system was developed and tested using fast breeder reactor design. (author)

  6. Models of evaluating efficiency and risks on integration of cloud-base IT-services of the machine-building enterprise: a system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razumnikov, S.; Kurmanbay, A.

    2016-04-01

    The present paper suggests a system approach to evaluation of the effectiveness and risks resulted from the integration of cloud-based services in a machine-building enterprise. This approach makes it possible to estimate a set of enterprise IT applications and choose the applications to be migrated to the cloud with regard to specific business requirements, a technological strategy and willingness to risk.

  7. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor [Laboratory of Synergetics, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering; Thaler, Marko; Poredos, Alojz [Laboratory for Refrigeration, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-08-15

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company. (author)

  8. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Thaler, Marko; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor; Poredos, Alojz

    2007-01-01

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

  9. Assessment of technical risks and R and D requirements for a magnetic confinement fusion fuel system. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeFreece, D.A.

    1983-11-01

    This report documents a specific use and results of a novel technique for assessing the technical risks associated with the hardware development of a possible future commercial fusion power plant fuel system. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications. A technical risk assessment is the quantification of this risk. This Technical Risk Assessment (TRA) methodology was applied to a deuterium-tritium fuel system for a magnetic-confinement fusion power plant. The fuel system is defined to support a generic commercial reactor with at least two viable options for each critical subsystem. Each subsystem option is defined in detail including nominal performance requirements and subsystem interfaces. Subsystem experts were canvassed to obtain values for past, present and future technical performance parameters for each of the subsystem options. These forecasts are presented as probabilities of achieving given levels of performance in specific time periods for assumed funding scenarios. Several funding scenarios were examined to discern whether performance limitations are caused by funding or technology. A computerized Fuel System simulation is described which uses these subsystem performance parameter forecasts as inputs

  10. Career Excess Mortality Risk from Diagnostic Radiological Exams Required for Crewmembers Participating in Long Duration Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, C. W.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Picco, C. E.; Johnston, S. L.; Shavers, M. R.; VanBaalen, M.

    2008-01-01

    NASA requires astronauts to undergo diagnostic x-ray examinations as a condition for their employment. The purpose of these procedures is to assess the astronaut s overall health and to diagnose conditions that could jeopardize the success of long duration space missions. These include exams for acceptance into the astronaut corps, routine periodic exams, as well as evaluations taken pre and post missions. Issues: According to NASA policy these medical examinations are considered occupational radiological exposures, and thus, are included when computing the astronaut s overall radiation dose and associated excess cancer mortality risk. As such, astronauts and administrators are concerned about the amount of radiation received from these procedures due to the possibility that these additional doses may cause astronauts to exceed NASA s administrative limits, thus disqualifying them from future flights. Methods: Radiation doses and cancer mortality risks following required medical radiation exposures are presented herein for representative male and female astronaut careers. Calculation of the excess cancer mortality risk was performed by adapting NASA s operational risk assessment model. Averages for astronaut height, weight, number of space missions and age at selection into the astronaut corps were used as inputs to the NASA risk model. Conclusion: The results show that the level of excess cancer mortality imposed by all required medical procedures over an entire astronaut s career is approximately the same as that resulting from a single short duration space flight (i.e. space shuttle mission). In short the summation of all medical procedures involving ionizing radiation should have no impact on the number of missions an astronaut can fly over their career. Learning Objectives: 1. The types of diagnostic medical exams which astronauts are subjected to will be presented. 2. The level of radiation dose and excess mortality risk to the average male and female

  11. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

  12. Risk and Business Goal Based Security Requirement and Countermeasure Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2012-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. Currently companies achieve this by means of checklist-based security assessments, but these methods are a way to achieve consensus without being able to provide justifications of countermeasures in terms of business goals. But such justificat...

  13. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  14. On the Risk Management and Auditing of SOA Based Business Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orriens, Bart; Heuvel, Willem-Jan V./D.; Papazoglou, Mike

    SOA-enabled business processes stretch across many cooperating and coordinated systems, possibly crossing organizational boundaries, and technologies like XML and Web services are used for making system-to-system interactions commonplace. Business processes form the foundation for all organizations, and as such, are impacted by industry regulations. This requires organizations to review their business processes and ensure that they meet the compliance standards set forth in legislation. In this paper we sketch a SOA-based service risk management and auditing methodology including a compliance enforcement and verification system that assures verifiable business process compliance. This is done on the basis of a knowledge-based system that allows integration of internal control systems into business processes conform pre-defined compliance rules, monitor both the normal process behavior and those of the control systems during process execution, and log these behaviors to facilitate retrospective auditing.

  15. Dyslipidemias and Elevated Cardiovascular Risk on Lopinavir-Based Antiretroviral Therapy in Cambodia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ly, Sowath; Ouk, Vara; Chanroeurn, Hak; Thavary, Saem; Boroath, Ban; Canestri, Ana; Viretto, Gérald; Delfraissy, Jean-François; Ségéral, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    Background Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) is widely used in Cambodia with high efficacy but scarce data exist on long-term metabolic toxicity. Methods We carried out a cross-sectional and retrospective study evaluating metabolic disorders and cardiovascular risk in Cambodian patients on LPV/r-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) for > 1 year followed in Calmette Hospital, Phnom Penh. Data collected included cardiovascular risk factors, fasting blood lipids and glucose, and retrospective collection of bioclinical data. We estimated the 10-year risks of coronary heart disease with the Framingham, Ramathibodi-Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Rama-EGAT), and the Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk equations. We identified patients with LDL above targets defined by the French expert group on HIV and by the HIV Medicine Association of the Infectious Disease Society of America and the Adult AIDS Clinical Trials Group (IDSA-AACTG). Results Of 115 patients enrolled—mean age 40.9 years, 69.2% male, mean time on LPV/r 3.8 years—40 (34.8%) had hypercholesterolemia (> 2.40 g/L), and 69 (60.0%) had low HDL cholesterol (dyslipidemia was high in this cohort of HIV-infected Cambodian patients on LPV/r. Roughly one third had high LDL levels requiring specific intervention. PMID:27579612

  16. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  17. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmali, Kunal N; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; van der Leeuw, Joep; Goff, David C; Yusuf, Salim; Zanchetti, Alberto; Glasziou, Paul; Jackson, Rodney; Woodward, Mark; Rodgers, Anthony; Neal, Bruce C; Berge, Eivind; Teo, Koon; Davis, Barry R; Chalmers, John; Pepine, Carl; Rahimi, Kazem; Sundström, Johan

    2018-03-01

    Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level. We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating

  18. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunal N Karmali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP level.We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants. During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5% experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31% fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18% more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with

  19. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  20. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  1. Does atlas-based autosegmentation of neck levels require subsequent manual contour editing to avoid risk of severe target underdosage? A dosimetric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voet, Peter W.J.; Dirkx, Maarten L.P.; Teguh, David N.; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Background and purpose: To investigate the dosimetric impact of not editing auto-contours of the elective neck and organs at risk (OAR), generated with atlas-based autosegmentation (ABAS) (Elekta software) for head and neck cancer patients. Materials and methods: For nine patients ABAS auto-contours and auto-contours edited by two observers were available. Based on the non-edited auto-contours clinically acceptable IMRT plans were constructed (designated 'ABAS plans'). These plans were then evaluated for the two edited structure sets, by quantifying the percentage of the neck-PTV receiving more than 95% of the prescribed dose (V 95 ) and the near-minimum dose (D 99 ) in the neck PTV. Dice coefficients and mean contour distances were calculated to quantify the similarity of ABAS auto-contours with the structure sets edited by observer 1 and observer 2. To study the dosimetric importance of editing OAR auto-contours a new IMRT plan was generated for each patient-observer combination, based on the observer's edited CTV and the non-edited salivary gland auto-contours. For each plan mean doses for the non-edited glands were compared with doses for the same glands edited by the observer. Results: For both observers, edited neck CTVs were larger than ABAS auto-contours (p ≤ 0.04), by a mean of 8.7%. When evaluating ABAS plans on the PTVs of the edited structure sets, V 95 reduced by 7.2% ± 5.4% (1 SD) (p 99 was 14.2 Gy (range 1-54 Gy). Even for Dice coefficients >0.8 and mean contour distances 99 up to 11 Gy were observed. For treatment plans based on observer PTVs and non-edited auto-contoured salivary glands, the mean doses in the edited glands differed by only -0.6 Gy ± 1.0 Gy (p = 0.06). Conclusions: Editing of auto-contoured neck CTVs generated by ABAS is required to avoid large underdosages in target volumes. Often used similarity measures for evaluation of auto-contouring algorithms, such as dice coefficients, do not predict well for expected PTV underdose

  2. 12 CFR 1500.6 - What risk management, record keeping and reporting policies are required to make merchant banking...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What risk management, record keeping and... Banking DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY GENERAL PROVISIONS MERCHANT BANKING INVESTMENTS § 1500.6 What risk management, record keeping and reporting policies are required to make merchant banking investments? (a) What...

  3. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  4. Waste-acceptance criteria and risk-based thinking for radioactive-waste classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowenthal, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    The US system of radioactive-waste classification and its development provide a reference point for the discussion of risk-based thinking in waste classification. The official US system is described and waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites are introduced because they constitute a form of de facto waste classification. Risk-based classification is explored and it is found that a truly risk-based system is context-dependent: risk depends not only on the waste-management activity but, for some activities such as disposal, it depends on the specific physical context. Some of the elements of the official US system incorporate risk-based thinking, but like many proposed alternative schemes, the physical context of disposal is ignored. The waste-acceptance criteria for disposal sites do account for this context dependence and could be used as a risk-based classification scheme for disposal. While different classes would be necessary for different management activities, the waste-acceptance criteria would obviate the need for the current system and could better match wastes to disposal environments saving money or improving safety or both

  5. Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellish, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

  6. Structuring a risk-based bioassay program for uranium usage in university laboratories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Johnne Talia

    Bioassay programs are integral in a radiation safety program. They are used as a method of determining whether individuals working with radioactive material have been exposed and have received a resulting dose. For radionuclides that are not found in nature, determining an exposure is straightforward. However, for a naturally occurring radionuclide like uranium, it is not as straightforward to determine whether a dose is the result of an occupational exposure. The purpose of this project is to address this issue within the University of Nevada, Las Vegas's (UNLV) bioassay program. This project consisted of two components that studied the effectiveness of a bioassay program in determining the dose for an acute inhalation of uranium. The first component of the plan addresses the creation of excretion curves, utilizing MATLAB that would allow UNLV to be able to determine at what time an inhalation dose can be attributed to. The excretion curves were based on the ICRP 30 lung model, as well as the Annual Limit Intake (ALI) values located in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's 10CFR20 which is based on ICRP 30 (International Commission on Radiological Protection). The excretion curves would allow UNLV to be able to conduct in-house investigations of inhalation doses without solely depending on outside investigations and sources. The second component of the project focused on the creation of a risk based bioassay program to be utilized by UNLV that would take into account bioassay frequency that depended on the individual. Determining the risk based bioassay program required the use of baseline variance in order to minimize the investigation of false positives among those individuals who undergo bioassays for uranium work. The proposed program was compared against an evaluation limit of 10 mrem per quarter, an investigational limit of 125 mrem per quarter, and the federal/state requirement of 1.25 rem per quarter. It was determined that a bioassay program whose bioassay

  7. Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 106: Area 5, 11 Frenchman Flat Atmospheric Sites, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, Patrick; Peterson, Dawn

    2011-01-01

    Corrective Action Unit 106 comprises four corrective action sites (CASs): (1) 05-20-02, Evaporation Pond; (2) 05-23-05, Atmospheric Test Site - Able; (3) 05-45-04, 306 GZ Rad Contaminated Area; (4) 05-45-05, 307 GZ Rad Contaminated Area. The purpose of this CADD/CR is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation that no further corrective action is needed for CAU 106 based on the implementation of corrective actions. The corrective action of clean closure was implemented at CASs 05-45-04 and 05-45-05, while no corrective action was necessary at CASs 05-20-02 and 05-23-05. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from October 20, 2010, through June 1, 2011, as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 106: Areas 5, 11 Frenchman Flat Atmospheric Sites. The approach for the CAI was divided into two facets: investigation of the primary release of radionuclides, and investigation of other releases (mechanical displacement and chemical releases). The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill data needs as defined during the data quality objective (DQO) process. The CAU 106 dataset of investigation results was evaluated based on a data quality assessment. This assessment demonstrated the dataset is complete and acceptable for use in fulfilling the DQO data needs. Investigation results were evaluated against final action levels (FALs) established in this document. A radiological dose FAL of 25 millirem per year was established based on the Industrial Area exposure scenario (2,250 hours of annual exposure). The only radiological dose exceeding the FAL was at CAS 05-45-05 and was associated with potential source material (PSM). It is also assumed that additional PSM in the form of depleted uranium (DU) and DU-contaminated debris at CASs 05-45-04 and 05-45-05 exceed the FAL. Therefore, corrective actions were undertaken at these CASs that consisted of removing PSM and collecting verification

  8. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

  9. An Evidence Base for Human Spaceflight Risks in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundrot, Craig; Steil, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Pellis, Neal

    2013-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is focused on understanding and mitigating thirty two risks to crew health and performance in exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The HRP has developed an evidence report for each of the risks. Most evidence reports are a brief review article describing the evidence related to a specified risk, written at a level appropriate for the scientifically educated, non-specialist reader. Each evidence report captured the current state of knowledge from both research and operations. Two limitations of the evidence reports have become apparent: 1) they are updated infrequently and 2) they do not take full advantage of the expertise available in other space agencies and in related fields of terrestrial research. Therefore, the HRP is experimenting with the use of Wikipedia articles as a repository for evidence. Wikipedia's accessibility to the international space flight community and researchers in related terrestrial fields creates the opportunity to generate a more timely and comprehensive evidence base. Initial Wikipedia articles were populated for seven risks using a subset of the information in the HRP-approved evidence reports: Fatigue and Sleep Loss, Treating An Ill or Injured Crew Member, Radiation Carcinogenesis, Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure, Renal Stone Formation, Team Cohesion, and Intervertebral Disc Damage. Since the initial articles were created, there have been additions to these Wikipedia articles, including content from sources outside the HRP, and editorial changes to the pages. We will report on the nature of the contributions made after the initial articles were created, the comprehensiveness of the resulting Wikipedia articles, and the effort required to maintain quality control of the content. The Wikipedia approach will also be compared to wiki efforts that exert more traditional editorial control of content prior to posting.

  10. Network-Based Material Requirements Planning (NBMRP) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Network-Based Material Requirements Planning (NBMRP) in Product Development Project. ... International Journal of Development and Management Review ... To address the problems, this study evaluated the existing material planning practice, and formulated a NBMRP model out of the variables of the existing MRP and ...

  11. Single chain variable fragment antibodies block aggregation and toxicity induced by familial ALS-linked mutant forms of SOD1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadge, Ghanashyam D; Pavlovic, John D; Koduvayur, Sujatha P; Kay, Brian K; Roos, Raymond P

    2013-08-01

    Approximately 10% of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) cases are familial (known as FALS) with an autosomal dominant inheritance pattern, and ~25% of FALS cases are caused by mutations in Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD1). There is convincing evidence that mutant SOD1 (mtSOD1) kills motor neurons (MNs) because of a gain-of-function toxicity, most likely related to aggregation of mtSOD1. A number of recent reports have suggested that antibodies can be used to treat mtSOD1-induced FALS. To follow up on the use of antibodies as potential therapeutics, we generated single chain fragments of variable region antibodies (scFvs) against SOD1, and then expressed them as 'intrabodies' within a motor neuron cell line. In the present study, we describe isolation of human scFvs that interfere with mtSOD1 in vitro aggregation and toxicity. These scFvs may have therapeutic potential in sporadic ALS, as well as FALS, given that sporadic ALS may also involve abnormalities in the SOD1 protein or activity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. 78 FR 4032 - Prompt Corrective Action, Requirements for Insurance, and Promulgation of NCUA Rules and Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-18

    ... interest rate risk requirements. The amended IRPS increases the asset threshold that identifies credit... asset threshold used to define a ``complex'' credit union for determining whether risk-based net worth... or credit unions) with assets of $50 million or less from interest rate risk rule requirements. To...

  13. Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G., E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: egr@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

  14. Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

  15. The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

  16. Microbial quality of reclaimed water for urban reuses: Probabilistic risk-based investigation and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhipi-Shrestha, Gyan; Hewage, Kasun; Sadiq, Rehan

    2017-01-15

    Although Canada has abundant freshwater resources, many cities still experience seasonal water shortage. Supply-side and demand-side management is a core strategy to address this water shortage. Under this strategy, reclaimed water, which the Canadian public is willing to use for non-potable purposes, is an option. However, no universal guidelines exist for reclaimed water use. Despite the federal government's long-term goal to develop guidelines for many water reuse applications, guidelines have only been prescribed for reclaimed water use in toilet and urinal flushing in Canada. At the provincial level, British Columbia (BC) has promulgated guidelines for wide applications of reclaimed water but only at broad class levels. This research has investigated and proposed probabilistic risk-based recommended values for microbial quality of reclaimed water in various non-potable urban reuses. The health risk was estimated by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations were used in the analysis to include variability and uncertainty in input data. The proposed recommended values are based on the indicator organism E. coli. The required treatment levels for reuse were also estimated. In addition, the recommended values were successfully applied to three wastewater treatment effluents in the Okanagan Valley, BC, Canada. The health risks associated with other bacterial pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni and Salmonella spp.), virus (adenovirus, norovirus, and rotavirus), and protozoa (Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia spp.), were also estimated. The estimated risks indicate the effectiveness of the E. coli-based water quality recommended values. Sensitivity analysis shows the pathogenic E. coli ratio and morbidity are the most sensitive input parameters for all water reuses. The proposed recommended values could be further improved by using national or regional data on water exposures, disease burden per case, and the susceptibility

  17. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  18. The contribution of science to risk-based decision-making: lessons from the development of full-scale treatment measures for acidic mine waters at Wheal Jane, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Paul L; Coulton, Richard H; Froggatt, Eric C

    2005-02-01

    The use of risk-based decision-making in environmental management is often assumed to rely primarily on the availability of robust scientific data and insights, while in practice socio-economic criteria are often of considerable importance. However, the relative contributions to decision-making made by scientific and socio-economic inputs are rarely assessed, and even less commonly reported. Such an assessment has been made for a major remediation project in southwest England, in which some 300 l/s of highly acidic, metalliferous mine waters are now being treated using oxidation and chemical neutralisation. In the process of reaching the decision to commission the treatment plant, a wide range of scientific studies were undertaken, including: biological impact assessments, hydrogeological investigations of the effect of pumping on the flooded mine system, and hydrological and geochemical characterisation, together with integrated catchment modelling, of pollutant sources and pathways. These investigations revealed that, despite the spectacular nature of the original mine water outburst in 1992, the ecology of the Fal estuary remains remarkably robust. No scientific evidence emerged of any grounds for concern over the estuarine ecology, even if mine water were left to flow untreated. However, a rare ecological resource known as "maerl" (a form of calcified seaweed) is harvested annually in the estuary, providing significant revenue to the local economy and underpinning the 'clean' image of local sea water. Social and environmental benefit surveys revealed strong public perceptions that any visible discoloration in the estuary must indicate a diminution in quality of the maerl, to the detriment of both the public image and economy of the area. This factor proved sufficient to justify the continued pump-and-treat operations at the mine site. Although the decisive factor in the end was socio-economic in nature, robust assessment of this factor could not have been made

  19. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  20. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  1. Impact of occupational mechanical exposures on risk of lateral and medial inguinal hernia requiring surgical repair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vad, Marie Vestergaard; Frost, Poul; Bay-Nielsen, Morten

    2012-01-01

    We undertook a register-based cohort study to evaluate exposure-response relations between cumulative occupational mechanical exposures, and risk of lateral and medial inguinal hernia repair.......We undertook a register-based cohort study to evaluate exposure-response relations between cumulative occupational mechanical exposures, and risk of lateral and medial inguinal hernia repair....

  2. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  3. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. I: Conceptual development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    The predominant paradigm for the premarket assessment of genetically modified (GM) foods reflects heightened public concern by focusing on foods modified by recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (rDNA) techniques, while foods modified by other methods of genetic modification are generally not assessed for safety. To determine whether a GM product requires less or more regulatory oversight and testing, we developed and evaluated a risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived GM foods. The results of this research are presented in three papers. This paper describes the conceptual development of the proposed RBCS that focuses on two categories of adverse health effects: (1) toxic and antinutritional effects, and (2) allergenic effects. The factors that may affect the level of potential health risks of GM foods are identified. For each factor identified, criteria for differentiating health risk potential are developed. The extent to which a GM food satisfies applicable criteria for each factor is rated separately. A concern level for each category of health effects is then determined by aggregating the ratings for the factors using predetermined aggregation rules. An overview of the proposed scheme is presented, as well as the application of the scheme to a hypothetical GM food.

  4. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2015-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  5. Student perceptions of independent versus facilitated small group learning approaches to compressed medical anatomy education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, Alexander; Leddy, John J; Mindra, Sean; Matthew Hughes, J D; El-Bialy, Safaa; Ramnanan, Christopher J

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare student perceptions regarding two, small group learning approaches to compressed (46.5 prosection-based laboratory hours), integrated anatomy education at the University of Ottawa medical program. In the facilitated active learning (FAL) approach, tutors engage students and are expected to enable and balance both active learning and progression through laboratory objectives. In contrast, the emphasized independent learning (EIL) approach stresses elements from the "flipped classroom" educational model: prelaboratory preparation, independent laboratory learning, and limited tutor involvement. Quantitative (Likert-style questions) and qualitative data (independent thematic analysis of open-ended commentary) from a survey of students who had completed the preclerkship curriculum identified strengths from the EIL (promoting student collaboration and communication) and FAL (successful progression through objectives) approaches. However, EIL led to student frustration related to a lack of direction and impaired completion of objectives, whereas active learning opportunities in FAL were highly variable and dependent on tutor teaching style. A "hidden curriculum" was also identified, where students (particularly EIL and clerkship students) commonly compared their compressed anatomy education or their anatomy learning environment with other approaches. Finally, while both groups highly regarded the efficiency of prosection-based learning and expressed value for cadaveric-based learning, student commentary noted that the lack of grade value dedicated to anatomy assessment limited student accountability. This study revealed critical insights into small group learning in compressed anatomy education, including the need to balance student active learning opportunities with appropriate direction and feedback (including assessment). © 2015 American Association of Anatomists.

  6. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  7. 75 FR 10973 - Hazardous Materials: Risk-Based Adjustment of Transportation Security Plan Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-09

    ... (explosive) material; (3) More than 1 L (1.06 qt.) per package of a material poisonous by inhalation in... controlled; and 6.1 materials poisonous by inhalation. We also proposed to require security plans for any... happens very rapidly, and in the process, the propane combines readily with air to form fuel air mixtures...

  8. Modern Approaches to Risk Management and Their Use in Customs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vita Afanasieva

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the analysis of experience and best practices of Europe and the world regarding the methods and tools of risk management in customs affairs. In accordance with the requirements of the Kyoto Convention the risk management is the main basic principle of modern customs control methods, which allows optimal use of resources of customs bodies, without reducing the effectiveness of customs controls, and exempt the majority of foreign trade operators from unnecessary bureaucratic control. Procedures based on risk management, concentrate customs control on areas, where there is the greatest risk, allowing the bulk of goods and individuals relatively free to pass the checkpoint at the customs border Special attention is paid to the principles and methods of risk management and their impact on the simplification of customs procedures through the use of risk-based thinking. The paper discusses the problems concerning the application and implementation of modern risk management techniques in customs procedures subject to the requirements of international standards ISO for the quality management system and risk management based on risk-based thinking.

  9. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford site cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.

    1996-01-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within currently expected annual funding profiles. These strategies were developed because (1) the U.S. Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and risk-reduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars, or less, annually. This analysis produced a framework and a set of tools that are available for dealing with changes to anticipated funding levels, changes in risk cleanup standards, and Congressional initiatives and inquiries. The tools include land-supply curves, cost profiles, risk profiles, mortgage reduction curves, and minimum operations costs. This paper describes the methodology used to develop mortgage-based, risk-based, and land-based cleanup strategies and how those strategies differ in terms of the work to be performed, its sequence, and the resulting end states

  10. Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

    2014-04-18

    Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κInternet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

  11. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  12. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  13. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  14. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  15. A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

    2015-01-01

    Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

  16. International and Russian practice of banking risk-management. Mortgage risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Nikolaeva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the work is to compare Russian norms and standards of risk management of mortgage lending with international standards of risk management based on the documents of the Basel Committee. The article also aims to analyze new banking tools of risk management of mortgage lending, that arise in connection with the application of international norms and standards of risk management.Materials and Methods: The main documents considered in the article are the agreements on capital, issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: Basel-I (1988, Basel-II (2004 and Basel-III (2010, as well as instructions and standing orders issued by the Central Bank of Russia, including: Instruction № 139-I "Ob obiazatel'nykh normativakh bankov", instruction № 1 "O poriadke regulirovaniia deiatel'nosti kommercheskikh bankov", the standing order number 215-P "O metodike opredeleniia sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala kreditnykh organizatsii", the standing order № 395-P "O metodike opredeleniia velichiny sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala kreditnykh organizatsii («BAZEL III»" and others. On the basis of these documents the work examines and summarizes the main methods of risk management of mortgage lending, such as: comparison and analysis of risk management techniques, study of the basic documents regulating risk management in banks and generalization of risk management methods in the segment of mortgage lending.Results: The article analyzes the legal and methodological basis of risk management and provides practical methods that can be used in practice for managerial decisions in a constantly changing external economic environment. It also analyses international and native risk management. Russian standards of risk-management are compared with international. The work conducts a critical review of the effects of introduction of international standards in Russia. Special attention is paid to the practice of mortgage risk

  17. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Methodology of using CFD-based risk assessment in road tunnels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidmar Peter

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The definition of the deterministic approach in the safety analyses comes from the need to understand the conditions that come out during the fire accident in a road tunnel. The key factor of the tunnel operations during the fire is the ventilation, which during the initial fazes of the fire, impact strongly on the evacuation of people and latter on the access of the intervention units in the tunnel. The paper presents the use of the computational fluid dynamics model in the tunnel safety assessment process. The model is validated by comparing data with experimental and quantifying the differences. The set-up of the initial and boundary conditions and the requirement for grid density found during the validation tests is used to prepare three kind of fire scenarios 20 MW, 50 MW, and 100 MW, with different ventilation conditions; natural, semi transverse, full transverse, and longitudinal ventilation. The observed variables, soot density and temperature, are presented in minutes time steps trough the entire tunnel length. Comparing the obtained data in a table, allows the analyses of the ventilation conditions for different heat releases from fires. The second step is to add additional criteria of human behaviour inside the tunnel (evacuation and human resistance to the elevated gas concentrations and temperature. What comes out is a fully deterministic risk matrix that is based on the calculated data where the risk is ranged on five levels, from the lowest to a very danger level. The deterministic risk matrix represents the alternative to a probabilistic safety assessment methodology, where the fire risk is represented in detail as well as the computational fluid dynamics model results are physically correct. .

  19. Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

    2018-01-01

    In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

  20. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors.

  1. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors

  2. Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Som, Pradip; Doorn, Bas A. van; Bakker, G.J.

    2016-01-01

    Current safety management of aerodrome operations uses judgements of severity categories to evaluate runway incursions. Incident data show a small minority of severe incursions and a large majority of less severe incursions. We show that these severity judgements are mainly based upon the outcomes of runway incursions, in particular on the closest distances attained. As such, the severity-based evaluation leads to coincidental safety management feedback, wherein causes and risk implications of runway incursions are not well considered. In this paper we present a new framework for the evaluation of runway incursions, which effectively uses all runway incursions, which judges same types of causes similarly, and which structures causes and risk implications. The framework is based on risks of scenarios associated with the initiation of runway incursions. As a basis an inventory of scenarios is provided, which can represent almost all runway incursions involving a conflict with an aircraft. A main step in the framework is the assessment of the conditional probability of a collision given a runway incursion scenario. This can be effectively achieved for large sets of scenarios by agent-based dynamic risk modelling. The results provide detailed feedback on risks of runway incursion scenarios, thus enabling effective safety management. - Highlights: • Current evaluation of runway incursions is primarily based on their outcomes. • A new framework assesses collision risk given initiation of runway incursions. • Agent-based dynamic risk modelling can evaluate the risks of many scenarios. • A developed scenario inventory can represent almost all runway incursions. • The framework provides detailed feedback to safety management.

  3. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  4. Next Generation Microbiology Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Oubre, C. M.; Elliott, T. F.; Castro, V. A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2012-01-01

    As humans continue to explore deep into space, microorganisms will travel with them. The primary means to mitigate the risk of infectious disease are a combination of prudent spacecraft design and rigorous operational controls. The effectiveness of these methods are evaluated by microbiological monitoring of spacecraft, food, water, and the crew that is performed preflight, in-flight, and post-flight. Current NASA requirements associated with microbiological monitoring are based on culture-based methodology where microorganisms are grown on a semi-solid growth medium and enumerated. Subsequent identification of the organisms requires specialized labor and large equipment, which historically has been performed on Earth. Requirements that rely strictly on culture-based units limit the use of non-culture based monitoring technology. Specifically, the culture-based "measurement criteria" are Colony Forming Units (CFU, representing the growth of one microorganism at a single location on the agar medium) per a given volume, area, or sample size. As the CFU unit by definition is culture-based, these requirements limit alternative technologies for spaceflight applications. As spaceflight missions such as those to Mars extend further into space, culture-based technology will become difficult to implement due to the (a) limited shelf life of the culture media, (b) mass/volume necessary to carry these consumables, and (c) problems associated with the production of biohazardous material in the habitable volume of the spacecraft. In addition, an extensive amount of new knowledge has been obtained during the Space Shuttle, NASA-Mir, and International Space Station Programs, which gave direction for new or modified microbial control requirements for vehicle design and mission operations. The goal of this task is to develop and recommend a new set of requirements for vehicle design and mission operations, including microbiological monitoring, based upon "lessons learned" and new

  5. Generational sex work and HIV risk among Indigenous women in a street-based urban Canadian setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingham, Brittany; Leo, Diane; Zhang, Ruth; Montaner, Julio; Shannon, Kate

    2014-01-01

    In Canada, Indigenous women are over-represented among new HIV infections and street-based sex workers. Scholars suggest that Aboriginal women's HIV risk stems from intergenerational effects of colonisation and racial policies. This research examined generational sex work involvement among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women and the effect on risk for HIV acquisition. The sample included 225 women in street-based sex work and enrolled in a community-based prospective cohort, in partnership with local sex work and Aboriginal community partners. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression modeled an independent relationship between Aboriginal ancestry and generational sex work and the impact of generational sex work on HIV infection among Aboriginal sex workers. Aboriginal women (48%) were more likely to be HIV-positive, with 34% living with HIV compared to 24% non-Aboriginal women. In multivariate logistic regression model, Aboriginal women remained three times more likely to experience generational sex work (AOR:2.97; 95%CI:1.5,5.8). Generational sex work was significantly associated with HIV (AOR = 3.01, 95%CI: 1.67-4.58) in a confounder model restricted to Aboriginal women. High prevalence of generational sex work among Aboriginal women and three-fold increased risk for HIV infection are concerning. Policy reforms and community-based, culturally safe and trauma informed HIV-prevention initiatives are required for Indigenous sex workers.

  6. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-01-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  7. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  8. An Internet-based survey of risk factors for surgical gastric dilatation-volvulus in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipan, Marko; Brown, Dorothy Cimino; Battaglia, Carmelo L; Otto, Cynthia M

    2012-06-15

    To evaluate risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) in a large number of privately owned dogs across a wide geographic area. Internet-based, cross-sectional study. 2,551 privately owned dogs. A questionnaire addressed dog-specific, management, environmental, and personality-associated risk factors for GDV in dogs. Respondents were recruited through the posting of the electronic link to the questionnaire on websites for dog owners; the information was also disseminated at meetings of dog owners and via newsletters, e-mail lists for dog owners and breeders, owner-oriented dog publications, and e-mails forwarded by participants. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were performed. Factors significantly associated with an increased risk of GDV were being fed dry kibble, anxiety, residence in the United Kingdom, being born in the 1990s, being a family pet, and spending at least 5 hours a day with the owner. Factors associated with a decreased risk of GDV were playing with other dogs and running the fence after meals, fish and egg dietary supplements, and spending equal time indoors and outdoors. A significant interaction between sex and neuter status was observed, with sexually intact females having the highest risk for GDV. In dogs with a high risk of GDV, regular moderate daily and postprandial activity appeared to be beneficial. Feeding only commercial dry dog food may not be the best choice for dogs at risk; however, supplements with fish or eggs may reduced this risk. The effect of neuter status on GDV risk requires further characterization.

  9. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  10. Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil

    2017-01-01

    CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. CONCLUSION: Sound-based detection......OBJECTIVE: Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study...... features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. RESULTS: Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated...

  11. Genetic variation in the base excision repair pathway, environmental risk factors, and colorectal adenoma risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Corral

    Full Text Available Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER. We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013; FEN1 interaction p = 0.013, one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024 and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08 on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.

  12. A Hybrid Parallel Execution Model for Logic Based Requirement Specifications (Invited Paper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey J. P. Tsai

    1999-05-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that undiscovered errors in a requirements specification is extremely expensive to be fixed when discovered in the software maintenance phase. Errors in the requirement phase can be reduced through the validation and verification of the requirements specification. Many logic-based requirements specification languages have been developed to achieve these goals. However, the execution and reasoning of a logic-based requirements specification can be very slow. An effective way to improve their performance is to execute and reason the logic-based requirements specification in parallel. In this paper, we present a hybrid model to facilitate the parallel execution of a logic-based requirements specification language. A logic-based specification is first applied by a data dependency analysis technique which can find all the mode combinations that exist within a specification clause. This mode information is used to support a novel hybrid parallel execution model, which combines both top-down and bottom-up evaluation strategies. This new execution model can find the failure in the deepest node of the search tree at the early stage of the evaluation, thus this new execution model can reduce the total number of nodes searched in the tree, the total processes needed to be generated, and the total communication channels needed in the search process. A simulator has been implemented to analyze the execution behavior of the new model. Experiments show significant improvement based on several criteria.

  13. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  15. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  16. 47 CFR 90.691 - Emission mask requirements for EA-based systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Emission mask requirements for EA-based systems. 90.691 Section 90.691 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) SAFETY AND... of Ea-Based Smr Systems in the 809-824/851-869 Mhz Band § 90.691 Emission mask requirements for EA...

  17. Holistic stakeholder-oriented and case study-based risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisterkamp, Tobias

    2013-04-01

    Case studies of storm events in the Berlin conurbation demonstrate the chance of a holistic approach and its potential data sources. Data sets of population, but also data provided by insurance and transport companies, and operating data provided by fire brigades, are used. Various indicators for risk analysis are constructed to identify hot spots. These hot spots can be shortcomings or critical aspects in structure, communication, the warning chain, or even in the structure of potentially affected stakeholders or in the civil protection system itself. Due to increasing complexity of interactions and interdependencies in or between societies and nature, it is important to choose a holistic approach. For risk analyses like the storms in Berlin, it captures many important factors with their effects. For risk analyses, it is important to take potential users into concern: The analysis gets important due to its use later on. In addition to a theoretical background, a focus on the application should be set from the beginning on. To get usable results, it is helpful to complement the theoretical meta-level by a stakeholder-oriented level. An iterative investigation and combination of different layers for the risk analysis explores important influencing factors and allows a tailoring of results to different stakeholder groups. Layers are indicators, gained from data sets like losses from insurance data. Tailoring is important, because of different requirements e.g. by technical or medical assistance. Stakeholders' feedback in the iterative investigation also shows structural limitations for later applications, like special laws the fire brigades have to deal with. Additionally, using actors' perspectives offers the chance to convince practitioners of taking part in the analysis. Their participation is an essential component in applied science. They are important data suppliers, whose goodwill is needed to ensure good results. Based on their experience, they can also help

  18. How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  19. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  20. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies

  1. 77 FR 45355 - Announcement of Requirements and Registration for “The Million Hearts Risk Check Challenge”

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-31

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Announcement of Requirements and Registration for ``The Million Hearts Risk Check Challenge'' AGENCY: Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information... them hook into the delivery system if necessary. This new campaign and technology product will follow...

  2. Risk factors for the development of cataract requiring surgery in uveitis associated with juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sijssens, K.M.; Rothova, A.; van de Vijver, D.A.M.C.; Stilma, J.S.; de Boer, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    PURPOSE: To identify the possible risk factors for the development of cataract requiring surgery in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA)-associated uveitis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Data of 53 children with JIA-associated uveitis, of whom 27 had undergone cataract

  3. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

    2015-01-01

    action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

  4. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  5. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

  6. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  7. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  8. Fusing Quantitative Requirements Analysis with Model-based Systems Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Heron, Vance A.; Jenkins, J. Steven

    2006-01-01

    A vision is presented for fusing quantitative requirements analysis with model-based systems engineering. This vision draws upon and combines emergent themes in the engineering milieu. "Requirements engineering" provides means to explicitly represent requirements (both functional and non-functional) as constraints and preferences on acceptable solutions, and emphasizes early-lifecycle review, analysis and verification of design and development plans. "Design by shopping" emphasizes revealing the space of options available from which to choose (without presuming that all selection criteria have previously been elicited), and provides means to make understandable the range of choices and their ramifications. "Model-based engineering" emphasizes the goal of utilizing a formal representation of all aspects of system design, from development through operations, and provides powerful tool suites that support the practical application of these principles. A first step prototype towards this vision is described, embodying the key capabilities. Illustrations, implications, further challenges and opportunities are outlined.

  9. Design considerations for identifying breast cancer risk factors in a population-based study in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinton, Louise A; Awuah, Baffour; Nat Clegg-Lamptey, Joe; Wiafe-Addai, Beatrice; Ansong, Daniel; Nyarko, Kofi M; Wiafe, Seth; Yarney, Joel; Biritwum, Richard; Brotzman, Michelle; Adjei, Andrew A; Adjei, Ernest; Aitpillah, Francis; Edusei, Lawrence; Dedey, Florence; Nyante, Sarah J; Oppong, Joseph; Osei-Bonsu, Ernest; Titiloye, Nicholas; Vanderpuye, Verna; Brew Abaidoo, Emma; Arhin, Bernard; Boakye, Isaac; Frempong, Margaret; Ohene Oti, Naomi; Okyne, Victoria; Figueroa, Jonine D

    2017-06-15

    Although breast cancer is becoming more prevalent in Africa, few epidemiologic studies have been undertaken and appropriate methodologic approaches remain uncertain. We therefore conducted a population-based case-control study in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana, enrolling 2,202 women with lesions suspicious for breast cancer and 2,161 population controls. Biopsy tissue for cases prior to neoadjuvant therapy (if given), blood, saliva and fecal samples were sought for study subjects. Response rates, risk factor prevalences and odds ratios for established breast cancer risk factors were calculated. A total of 54.5% of the recruited cases were diagnosed with malignancies, 36.0% with benign conditions and 9.5% with indeterminate diagnoses. Response rates to interviews were 99.2% in cases and 91.9% in controls, with the vast majority of interviewed subjects providing saliva (97.9% in cases vs. 98.8% in controls) and blood (91.8% vs. 82.5%) samples; lower proportions (58.1% vs. 46.1%) provided fecal samples. While risk factor prevalences were unique as compared to women in other countries (e.g., less education, higher parity), cancer risk factors resembled patterns identified elsewhere (elevated risks associated with higher levels of education, familial histories of breast cancer, low parity and larger body sizes). Subjects with benign conditions were younger and exhibited higher socioeconomic profiles (e.g., higher education and lower parity) than those with malignancies, suggesting selective referral influences. While further defining breast cancer risk factors in Africa, this study showed that successful population-based interdisciplinary studies of cancer in Africa are possible but require close attention to diagnostic referral biases and standardized and documented approaches for high-quality data collection, including biospecimens. © 2017 UICC.

  10. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Nicholas D; Marquart, Hans; Christopher, Yvette; Laitinen, Juha; VAN Hemmen, Joop J

    2006-07-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of new measurements of dermal exposure together with detailed contextual information. This article describes the development of a set of generic task-based models capable of predicting potential dermal exposure to both solids and liquids in a wide range of situations. To facilitate modelling of the wide variety of dermal exposure situations six separate models were made for groupings of exposure scenarios called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units). These task-based groupings cluster exposure scenarios with regard to the expected routes of dermal exposure and the expected influence of exposure determinants. Within these groupings linear mixed effect models were used to estimate the influence of various exposure determinants and to estimate components of variance. The models predict median potential dermal exposure rates for the hands and the rest of the body from the values of relevant exposure determinants. These rates are expressed as mg or microl product per minute. Using these median potential dermal exposure rates and an accompanying geometric standard deviation allows a range of exposure percentiles to be calculated.

  11. The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

    2007-01-01

    industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

  12. A Novel Short-Term Maintenance Strategy for Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment Based on Risk-Cost-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang Yang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Current studies on preventive condition-based maintenance of power transmission and transformation equipment mainly focus on mid-term or long-term maintenance, and cannot meet the requirements of short-term especially temporary maintenance. In order to solve the defects of the present preventive maintenance strategies, according to the engineering application and based on risk-cost analysis, a short-term maintenance strategy is proposed in this manuscript. For the equipment working in bad health condition, its active maintenance costs and operation risk costs are evaluated, respectively. Then the latest maintenance time is calculated in accordance with the principle that its operation risk costs are no higher than active maintenance costs. Utilizing the latest maintenance time, the best maintenance time is calculated by setting the maximum relative earnings of postponing maintenance as the target, which provides the operation staffs with comprehensive maintenance-decision support. In the end, different cases on the IEEE 24-bus system are simulated. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed strategy are demonstrated by the simulation results.

  13. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Faherty, Denis

    2003-01-01

    .... Operational Risk Management (ORM) is the process that assists the military commander in reducing or offsetting risk and helps him think through his options when faced with force employment and the requirement for risk control for mission success...

  14. A cloud based tool for knowledge exchange on local scale flood risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, M E; Mackay, E; Quinn, P F; Stutter, M; Beven, K J; MacLeod, C J A; Macklin, M G; Elkhatib, Y; Percy, B; Vitolo, C; Haygarth, P M

    2015-09-15

    There is an emerging and urgent need for new approaches for the management of environmental challenges such as flood hazard in the broad context of sustainability. This requires a new way of working which bridges disciplines and organisations, and that breaks down science-culture boundaries. With this, there is growing recognition that the appropriate involvement of local communities in catchment management decisions can result in multiple benefits. However, new tools are required to connect organisations and communities. The growth of cloud based technologies offers a novel way to facilitate this process of exchange of information in environmental science and management; however, stakeholders need to be engaged with as part of the development process from the beginning rather than being presented with a final product at the end. Here we present the development of a pilot Local Environmental Virtual Observatory Flooding Tool. The aim was to develop a cloud based learning platform for stakeholders, bringing together fragmented data, models and visualisation tools that will enable these stakeholders to make scientifically informed environmental management decisions at the local scale. It has been developed by engaging with different stakeholder groups in three catchment case studies in the UK and a panel of national experts in relevant topic areas. However, these case study catchments are typical of many northern latitude catchments. The tool was designed to communicate flood risk in locally impacted communities whilst engaging with landowners/farmers about the risk of runoff from the farmed landscape. It has been developed iteratively to reflect the needs, interests and capabilities of a wide range of stakeholders. The pilot tool combines cloud based services, local catchment datasets, a hydrological model and bespoke visualisation tools to explore real time hydrometric data and the impact of flood risk caused by future land use changes. The novel aspects of the

  15. Volatility and correlation-based systemic risk measures in the US market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civitarese, Jamil

    2016-10-01

    This paper deals with the problem of how to use simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. Using three simple examples taken from previous literature, one based on raw and partial correlations, another based on the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix and the last one based on an eigenvalue entropy, a Granger-causation analysis revealed some of them are not always a good measure of risk in the S&P 500 and in the VIX. The measures selected do not Granger-cause the VIX index in all windows selected; therefore, in the sense of risk as volatility, the indicators are not always suitable. Nevertheless, their results towards returns are similar to previous works that accept them. A deeper analysis has shown that any symmetric measure based on eigenvalue decomposition of correlation matrices, however, is not useful as a measure of "correlation" risk. The empirical counterpart analysis of this proposition stated that negative correlations are usually small and, therefore, do not heavily distort the behavior of the indicator.

  16. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  17. A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

    2017-01-01

    As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

  18. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  19. Review of light water reactor regulatory requirements: Assessment of selected regulatory requirements that may have marginal importance to risk: Postaccident sampling system, Turbine missiles, Combustible gas control, Charcoal filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, W.B.; Jamison, J.D.; Stoetzel, G.A.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Vo, T.V.

    1987-05-01

    In a study commissioned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) evaluated the costs and benefits of modifying regulatory requirements in the areas of the postaccident sampling system, turbine rotor design reviews and inspections, combustible gas control for inerted Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) containments, and impregnated charcoal filters in certain plant ventilation systems. The basic framework for the analyses was that presented in the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines (NUREG/BR-0058) and in the Handbook for Value-Impact Assessment (NUREG/CR-3568). The effects of selected modifications to regulations were evaluated in terms of such factors as public risk and costs to industry and NRC. The results indicate that potential modifications of the regulatory requirements in three of the four areas would have little impact on public risk. In the fourth area, impregnated charcoal filters in building ventilation systems do appear to limit risks to the public and plant staff. Revisions in the severe accident source term assumptions, however, may reduce the theoretical value of charcoal filters. The cost analysis indicated that substantial savings in operating costs may be realized by changing the interval of turbine rotor inspections. Small to moderate operating cost savings may be realized through postulated modifications to the postaccident sampling system requirements and to the requirements for combustible gas control in inerted BWR containments. Finally, the use of impregnated charcoal filters in ventilation systems appears to be the most cost-effective method of reducing radioiodine concentrations

  20. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  1. 48 CFR 32.1010 - Risk of loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk of loss. 32.1010... REQUIREMENTS CONTRACT FINANCING Performance-Based Payments 32.1010 Risk of loss. (a) Under the clause at 52.232... loss occurs in connection with property for which the contractor bears the risk, and the property is...

  2. Risk factors for local failure requiring salvage neurosurgery after radiosurgery for brain metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weltman, Eduardo; Hanriot, Rodrigo de Morais; Prisco, Flavio Eduardo; Nadalin, Wladimir; Brandt, Reynaldo Andre; Moreira, Frederico Rafael

    2004-01-01

    Objective: the aim of this study is to select the risk factors for local failure requiring salvage neurosurgery in patients with brain metastases treated with stereotactic radiosurgery in a single institution. Methods: the follow-up of 123 patients, with 255 brain metastases treated with radiosurgery at the Radiation Oncology Department of the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein from July 1993 to August 2001, was retrospectively analyzed. The criteria for salvage neurosurgery were tumor volume enlargement, or tumor persistence leading to severe neurological symptoms, life threatening situation or critical steroid dependence. We considered the case as local failure when the histopathologic evaluation showed morphologically preserved cancer cells (tumor recurrence, persistence or progression). We applied the Fisher's exact test to evaluate the statistical correlation between local failure and primary tumor histology, volume of the brain metastases, prescribed radiosurgery dose, and whole brain radiotherapy. Results: fourteen of 123 patients (11%) underwent salvage neurosurgery. Histology showed preserved cancer cells with necrosis and/or bleeding in 11 cases (9% of the total accrual), and only necrosis with or without bleeding (without preserved cancer cells) in three cases. The primary tumor histology among the 11 patients considered with active neoplasia was malignant melanoma in five cases (21% of the patients with melanoma), breast adenocarcinoma in three (16% of the patients with breast cancer), and other histology in the remaining three. Breast cancer diagnosis, non-elective whole brain irradiation, volume of the brain metastases, and the prescribed radiosurgery dose did not correlate with the risk of local failure. Patients treated with elective whole brain radiotherapy showed fewer local failures, when compared to all patients receiving whole brain radiotherapy, and to the patients not receiving this treatment, with incidence of failure in 4%,7% and 14

  3. Comprehensive transportation risk assessment system based on unit-consequence factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement requires a comprehensive transportation risk analysis of radioactive waste shipments for large shipping campaigns. Thousands of unique shipments involving truck and rail transport must be analyzed; a comprehensive risk analysis is impossible with currently available methods. Argonne National Laboratory developed a modular transportation model that can handle the demands imposed by such an analysis. The modular design of the model facilitates the simple addition/updating of transportation routes and waste inventories, as required, and reduces the overhead associated with file maintenance and quality assurance. The model incorporates unit-consequences factors generated with the RADTRAN 4 transportation risk analysis code that are combined with an easy-to-use, menu-driven interface on IBM-compatible computers running under DOS. User selection of multiple origin/destination site pairs for the shipment of multiple radioactive waste inventories is permitted from pop-up lists. Over 800 predefined routes are available among more than 30 DOE sites and waste inventories that include high-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, transuranic waste, low-level waste, low-level mixed waste, and greater-than-Class C waste

  4. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  5. Prioritization of pharmaceuticals based on risks to aquatic environments in Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubakirova, Bakhyt; Beisenova, Raikhan; Boxall, Alistair Ba

    2017-09-01

    Over the last 20 years, there has been increasing interest in the occurrence, fate, effects, and risk of pharmaceuticals in the natural environment. However, we still have only limited or no data on ecotoxicological risks of many of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) currently in use. This is partly due to the fact that the environmental assessment of an API is an expensive, time-consuming, and complicated process. Prioritization methodologies, which aim to identify APIs of most concern in a particular situation, could therefore be invaluable in focusing experimental work on APIs that really matter. The majority of approaches for prioritizing APIs require annual pharmaceutical usage data. These methods cannot therefore be applied to countries, such as Kazakhstan, that have very limited data on API usage. The present paper therefore offers an approach for prioritizing APIs in surface waters in information-poor regions such as Kazakhstan. Initially data were collected on the number of products and active ingredients for different therapeutic classes in use in Kazakhstan and on the typical doses. These data were then used alongside simple exposure modeling approaches to estimate exposure indices for active ingredients (about 240 APIs) in surface waters in the country. Ecotoxicological effects data were obtained from the literature or predicted. Risk quotients were then calculated for each pharmaceutical based on the exposure and the substances were ranked in order of risk quotient. Highest exposure indices were obtained for benzylpenicillin, metronidazole, sulbactam, ceftriaxone, and sulfamethoxazole. The highest risk was estimated for amoxicillin, clarithromycin, azithromycin, ketoconazole, and benzylpenicillin. In the future, the approach could be employed in other regions where usage information is limited. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:832-839. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  6. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  7. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department ' ' Radiation Protection and Health' ' , Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Zurich, Medical Physics Group, Institute of Physics, Zurich (Switzerland); Zhang, Wei [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and

  8. Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard E. Sleefe

    2010-01-01

    There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

  9. Analysis of the security and privacy requirements of cloud-based electronic health records systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Joel J P C; de la Torre, Isabel; Fernández, Gonzalo; López-Coronado, Miguel

    2013-08-21

    The Cloud Computing paradigm offers eHealth systems the opportunity to enhance the features and functionality that they offer. However, moving patients' medical information to the Cloud implies several risks in terms of the security and privacy of sensitive health records. In this paper, the risks of hosting Electronic Health Records (EHRs) on the servers of third-party Cloud service providers are reviewed. To protect the confidentiality of patient information and facilitate the process, some suggestions for health care providers are made. Moreover, security issues that Cloud service providers should address in their platforms are considered. To show that, before moving patient health records to the Cloud, security and privacy concerns must be considered by both health care providers and Cloud service providers. Security requirements of a generic Cloud service provider are analyzed. To study the latest in Cloud-based computing solutions, bibliographic material was obtained mainly from Medline sources. Furthermore, direct contact was made with several Cloud service providers. Some of the security issues that should be considered by both Cloud service providers and their health care customers are role-based access, network security mechanisms, data encryption, digital signatures, and access monitoring. Furthermore, to guarantee the safety of the information and comply with privacy policies, the Cloud service provider must be compliant with various certifications and third-party requirements, such as SAS70 Type II, PCI DSS Level 1, ISO 27001, and the US Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA). Storing sensitive information such as EHRs in the Cloud means that precautions must be taken to ensure the safety and confidentiality of the data. A relationship built on trust with the Cloud service provider is essential to ensure a transparent process. Cloud service providers must make certain that all security mechanisms are in place to avoid unauthorized access

  10. Rice crop risk map in Babahoyo canton (Ecuador)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde Arias, Omar; Tarquis, Ana; Garrido, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    It is widely known that extreme climatic phenomena occur with more intensity and frequency. This fact has put more pressure over farming, making agricultural and livestock production riskier. In order to reduce hazards and economic loses that could jeopardize farmer's incomes and even its business continuity, it is very important to implement agriculture risk management plans by governments and institutions. One of the main strategies is transfer risk by agriculture insurance. Agriculture insurance based in indexes has a significant growth in the last decade. And consist in a comparison between measured index values with a defined threshold that triggers damage losses. However, based index insurance could not be based on an isolated measurement. It is necessary to be integrated in a complete monitoring system that uses many sources of information and tools. For example, index influence areas, crop production risk maps, crop yields, claim statistics, and so on. Crop production risk is related with yield variation of crops and livestock, due to weather, pests, diseases, and other factors that affect both the quantity and quality of commodities produced. This is the risk which farmers invest more time managing, and it is completely under their control. The aim of this study is generate a crop risk map of rice that can provide risk manager important information about the status of crop facing production risks. Then, based on this information, it will be possible to make best decisions to deal with production risk. The rice crop risk map was generated qualifying a 1:25000 scale soil and climatic map of Babahoyo canton, which is located in coast region of Ecuador, where rice is one of the main crops. The methodology to obtain crop risk map starts by establishing rice crop requirements and indentifying the risks associated with this crop. A second step is to evaluate soil and climatic conditions of the study area related to optimal crop requirements. Based on it, we can

  11. Development of reliability databases and the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meslin, T.

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear utilities have an increasing need to develop reliability databases for their operating experience. The purposes of these databases are often multiple, including both equipment maintenance aspects and probabilistic risk analyses. EDF has therefore been developing experience feedback databases, including the Reliability Data Recording System (SRDF) and the Event File, as well as the history of numerous operating documents. Furthermore, since the end of 1985, EDF has been preparing a probabilistic safety analysis applied to one 1,300 MWe unit, for which a large amount of data of French origin is necessary. This data concerns both component reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies. The study has thus been an opportunity for trying out the performance databases for a specific application, as well as in-depth audits of a number of nuclear sites to make it possible to validate numerous results. Computer aided data collection is also on trial in a number of plants. After describing the EDF operating experience feedback files, we discuss the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses, and the resources implemented by EDF to satisfy them. (author). 5 refs

  12. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  13. Sexual Behavior, Mental Health, Substance Use, and HIV Risk Among Agency-Based Male Escorts in a Small U.S. City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D; Seal, D W

    2008-03-01

    Relatively little research has examined the personal sex lives of indoor male sex workers (MSWs) or possible connections in this group between sexual behavior and factors related to HIV risk. As part of a larger project, this study collected data from 30 agency-based indoor MSWs (mean = 22.4 years) about their sexual behavior, mental health, and substance use. Few HIV risk behaviors with clients occurred. Drug use and mental health problems were relatively frequent, but not related to increased risk behavior. Instead, MSWs appeared to employ rational decision-making and harm-reduction strategies. Conceptualization of MSW sexual behavior may be required where HIV risk is not attributed to sex work per se, but to other influences such as economic and relational factors.

  14. Customer requirements based ERP customization using AHP technique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Parthasarathy, S.; Daneva, Maia

    2014-01-01

    Purpose– Customization is a difficult task for many organizations implementing enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework based on customers’ requirements to examine the ERP customization choices for the enterprise. The analytical hierarchy

  15. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  16. Enhancing requirements engineering for patient registry software systems with evidence-based components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindoerfer, Doris; Mansmann, Ulrich

    2017-07-01

    Patient registries are instrumental for medical research. Often their structures are complex and their implementations use composite software systems to meet the wide spectrum of challenges. Commercial and open-source systems are available for registry implementation, but many research groups develop their own systems. Methodological approaches in the selection of software as well as the construction of proprietary systems are needed. We propose an evidence-based checklist, summarizing essential items for patient registry software systems (CIPROS), to accelerate the requirements engineering process. Requirements engineering activities for software systems follow traditional software requirements elicitation methods, general software requirements specification (SRS) templates, and standards. We performed a multistep procedure to develop a specific evidence-based CIPROS checklist: (1) A systematic literature review to build a comprehensive collection of technical concepts, (2) a qualitative content analysis to define a catalogue of relevant criteria, and (3) a checklist to construct a minimal appraisal standard. CIPROS is based on 64 publications and covers twelve sections with a total of 72 items. CIPROS also defines software requirements. Comparing CIPROS with traditional software requirements elicitation methods, SRS templates and standards show a broad consensus but differences in issues regarding registry-specific aspects. Using an evidence-based approach to requirements engineering for registry software adds aspects to the traditional methods and accelerates the software engineering process for registry software. The method we used to construct CIPROS serves as a potential template for creating evidence-based checklists in other fields. The CIPROS list supports developers in assessing requirements for existing systems and formulating requirements for their own systems, while strengthening the reporting of patient registry software system descriptions. It may be

  17. A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

    2009-01-01

    The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommend...

  18. Trust-Based Information Risk Management in a Supply Chain Network

    OpenAIRE

    Yanjun Zuo; Wen-Chen Hu

    2009-01-01

    Information risk management is crucial for an organization operating in an increasingly integrated and intensively communicated environment to mitigate risks and ensure core business functions. Given the open and dynamic nature of a supply chain network, information risk management is challenging and various factors must be considered. This article introduces a trust-based approach to facilitate supply chain participants to perform effective risk management. The major components of the propos...

  19. Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 374: Area 20 Schooner Unit Crater, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada with ROTC 1 and 2, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick

    2011-07-01

    Corrective Action Unit 374 comprises five corrective action sites (CASs): • 18-22-05, Drum • 18-22-06, Drums (20) • 18-22-08, Drum • 18-23-01, Danny Boy Contamination Area • 20-45-03, U-20u Crater (Schooner) The purpose of this Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation that no further corrective action is needed for CAU 374 based on the implementation of corrective actions. The corrective action of closure in place with administrative controls was implemented at CASs 18-23-01 and 20-45-03, and a corrective action of removing potential source material (PSM) was conducted at CAS 20-45-03. The other CASs require no further action; however, best management practices of removing PSM and drums at CAS 18-22-06, and removing drums at CAS 18-22-08 were performed. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from May 4 through October 6, 2010, as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 374: Area 20 Schooner Unit Crater, Nevada Test Site, Nevada. The approach for the CAI was divided into two facets: investigating the primary release of radionuclides and investigating other releases (migration in washes and chemical releases). The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill data needs as defined during the data quality objective (DQO) process. The CAU 374 dataset of investigation results was evaluated based on the data quality indicator parameters. This evaluation demonstrated the dataset is acceptable for use in fulfilling the DQO data needs. Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against final action levels (FALs) established in this document. Radiological doses exceeding the FAL of 25 millirem per year were found to be present in the surface soil that was sampled. It is assumed that radionuclide levels present in subsurface media within the craters and ejecta fields (default contamination boundaries) at the Danny Boy and

  20. Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ester Vilaprinyo

    Full Text Available The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1 To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2 To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial, the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years and the ending ages (69 and 74 years in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.