WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk-based decisionmaking panel

  1. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  2. An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2000-01-01

    The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

  3. Use of risk assessment panels during revision of the Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles G. Shaw

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the process used to conduct the 16 risk assessment panels and a subsistence working group held during revision of the Tongass land management plan. It provides an overview of how results from the panels were used by forest managers in plan-related decisionmaking, discusses some reactions to the effort, and identifies some opportunities to improve...

  4. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...

  5. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed

    2016-05-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi

  6. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  7. Risk perception, safety goals and regulatory decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoegberg, Lars

    1998-01-01

    Deciding on 'how safe is safe enough?' includes value judgements with implications of an ethical and political nature. As regulators are accountable to governments, parliaments and the general public, regulatory decision-making should be characterized by transparency with respect to how such value judgements are reflected in risk assessments and regulatory decisions. Some approaches in this respect are discussed in the paper, based on more than fifteen years of experience in nuclear regulatory decision-making. Issues discussed include: (1) risk profiles and safety goals associated with severe reactor accidents--individual health risks, societal risks and risk of losing investments; (2) risk profile-based licensing of the Swedish SFR final disposal facility for low and intermediate level radioactive waste

  8. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  9. Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2004-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

  10. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  11. Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

  12. Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

    2016-01-01

    To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk-based decision-making: A reality at the INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halford, V.E.; Nitschke, R.L.; Hula, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    Risk Analysis and Risk Management are major components of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's (INEL's) environmental restoration and waste management program. These tools help define responsible and cost-effective approaches to address potential human health and environmental risks from past operational practices. These techniques along with stake holder involvement, play a key role in the decision-making process which involves the US Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE), the US Environmental Protection Agency Region 10 (EPA), and the State of Idaho Department of Health and Welfare (IDHW), hereafter referred to as the agencies. An example of how this process works is Pad A, an above-ground mixed waste disposal site composed mainly of transuranic-contaminated evaporation pond salts. The site was constructed in 1972 for the disposal of solid radioactive wastes. A Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) baseline risk assessment was conducted to determine the incremental cancer risk and potential for adverse health effects to the public and the impacts to the environment if no action was performed. The risk characterization indicated that the carcinogenic risk for current and future hypothetical scenarios was below or within the NCP acceptable risk range. There was a potential 10 year window for an adverse health effect to an infant from nitrate contamination of the groundwater in about 250 years. Based on these results, a responsible and sound decision was reached to maintain and recontour the existing soil cover and to perform monitoring to confirm modeling assumptions

  14. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  15. Risk Assessment and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Tunnel and Underground Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanpu Xia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of uncertainty on risk assessment and decision-making is increasingly being prioritized, especially for large geotechnical projects such as tunnels, where uncertainty is often the main source of risk. Epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced, is the focus of attention. In this study, the existing entropy-risk decision model is first discussed and analyzed, and its deficiencies are improved upon and overcome. Then, this study addresses the fact that existing studies only consider parameter uncertainty and ignore the influence of the model uncertainty. Here, focus is on the issue of model uncertainty and differences in risk consciousness with different decision-makers. The utility theory is introduced in the model. Finally, a risk decision model is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis and the tolerance cost, which can improve decision-making efficiency. This research can provide guidance or reference for the evaluation and decision-making of complex systems engineering problems, and indicate a direction for further research of risk assessment and decision-making issues.

  16. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

  18. Gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Michael J; Forman, Andrea D; Pilarski, Robert; Wiesner, Georgia; Giri, Veda N

    2014-09-01

    Next-generation sequencing technologies have ushered in the capability to assess multiple genes in parallel for genetic alterations that may contribute to inherited risk for cancers in families. Thus, gene panel testing is now an option in the setting of genetic counseling and testing for cancer risk. This article describes the many gene panel testing options clinically available to assess inherited cancer susceptibility, the potential advantages and challenges associated with various types of panels, clinical scenarios in which gene panels may be particularly useful in cancer risk assessment, and testing and counseling considerations. Given the potential issues for patients and their families, gene panel testing for inherited cancer risk is recommended to be offered in conjunction or consultation with an experienced cancer genetic specialist, such as a certified genetic counselor or geneticist, as an integral part of the testing process. Copyright © 2014 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

  19. Discussing uncertainty and risk in primary care: recommendations of a multi-disciplinary panel regarding communication around prostate cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkes, Michael; Srinivasan, Malathi; Cole, Galen; Tardif, Richard; Richardson, Lisa C; Plescia, Marcus

    2013-11-01

    Shared decision making improves value-concordant decision-making around prostate cancer screening (PrCS). Yet, PrCS discussions remain complex, challenging and often emotional for physicians and average-risk men. In July 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a multidisciplinary expert panel to identify priorities for funding agencies and development groups to promote evidence-based, value-concordant decisions between men at average risk for prostate cancer and their physicians. Two-day multidisciplinary expert panel in Atlanta, Georgia, with structured discussions and formal consensus processes. Sixteen panelists represented diverse specialties (primary care, medical oncology, urology), disciplines (sociology, communication, medical education, clinical epidemiology) and market sectors (patient advocacy groups, Federal funding agencies, guideline-development organizations). Panelists used guiding interactional and evaluation models to identify and rate strategies that might improve PrCS discussions and decisions for physicians, patients and health systems/society. Efficacy was defined as the likelihood of each strategy to impact outcomes. Effort was defined as the relative amount of effort to develop, implement and sustain the strategy. Each strategy was rated (1-7 scale; 7 = maximum) using group process software (ThinkTank(TM)). For each group, intervention strategies were grouped as financial/regulatory, educational, communication or attitudinal levers. For each strategy, barriers were identified. Highly ranked strategies to improve value-concordant shared decision-making (SDM) included: changing outpatient clinic visit reimbursement to reward SDM; development of evidence-based, technology-assisted, point-of-service tools for physicians and patients; reframing confusing prostate cancer screening messages; providing pre-visit decision support interventions; utilizing electronic health records to promote benchmarking/best practices; providing

  20. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-08-01

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  1. Altered Decision-Making under Risk in Obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan F Navas

    Full Text Available The negative consequences of energy dense foods are well known, yet people increasingly make unhealthy food choices leading to obesity (i.e., risky decisions. The aims of this study were: [1] to compare performance in decision-making tasks under risk and under ambiguity between individuals with obesity, overweight and normal weight; [2] to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI and decision-making, and the degree to which these associations are modulated by reward sensitivity.Seventy-nine adults were recruited and classified in three groups according to their BMI: obesity, overweight and normal-weight. Groups were similar in terms of age, education and socio-economic status, and were screened for comorbid medical and mental health conditions. Decision-making under risk was measured via the Wheel of Fortune Task (WoFT and decision-making under ambiguity via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT. Reward sensitivity was indicated by the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ.Individuals with obesity made riskier choices in the WoFT, specifically in choices with an expected value close to zero and in the propensity to risk index. No differences were found in IGT performance or SPSRQ scores. BMI was associated with risk-taking (WoFT performance, independently of reward sensitivity.Obesity is linked to a propensity to make risky decisions in experimental conditions analogous to everyday food choices.

  2. From science to decision-making: taking the risk to communicate on risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroi, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Geoscientists and decision-makers have the same responsibility toward the society: reducing the damaging consequences induced by natural phenomena. They have to work together, geoscientists to improve the knowledge and decision-makers to take the "best" decision, both to design and implement balanced solutions, both to communicate. Feedback shows that if the collaboration between them has already improved, a lot has still to be done, especially in terms of communication; endless litany, geoscientists don't communicate in the right way! In a hyperspecialized technological and segmented society with sophisticated methods of communication, geoscientists don't use appropriate tools and terminology. It's true, and a lot of examples can be shown that highlight this! Risks is based on complex concepts, on notions that are poorly understood, even by scientists themselves, especially the concepts of probability and occurrence of phenomena. But the problem rest as well on the role and on the responsibility of the geoscientists. Risk management experts address geosciences and technology to identify problems and define protection, including prohibitive measures (such as not allowing building in hazardous areas). Policy makers and local planners want to know where to develop territories. On one hand the identification of problems, on the other hand the needs of solutions. Dialectic is not the same. When responsibility, money and image are the three main pillars of decision-making, long-term modeling and uncertainty, are the basic ones for geosciences. In our participative democracies people want to be actor of the development of their own territories; they want more freedom, more protection and less tax. Face to unrealistic political answers geoscientists have to explain and convince. It's not possible to gain on everything and some are going to loose. Shall geoscientists let decision-makers communicate on topics they hardly understand? No. Shall geoscientists communicate on

  3. Decision-making Under Risk in Children, Adolescents, and Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ePaulsen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children’s preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  4. Scientific information and the Tongass land management plan: key findings derived from the scientific literature, species assessments, resource analyses, workshops, and risk assessment panels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas N. Swanston; Charles G. Shaw; Winston P. Smith; Kent R. Julin; Guy A. Cellier; Fred H. Everest

    1996-01-01

    This document highlights key items of information obtained from the published literature and from specific assessments, workshops, resource analyses, and various risk assessment panels conducted as part of the Tongass land management planning process. None of this information dictates any particular decision; however, it is important to consider during decisionmaking...

  5. Decision-Making Under Risk, but Not Under Ambiguity, Predicts Pathological Gambling in Discrete Types of Abstinent Substance Users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Michael J; Vassileva, Jasmin

    2018-01-01

    This study explored how different forms of reward-based decision-making are associated with pathological gambling (PG) among abstinent individuals with prior dependence on different classes of drugs. Participants had lifetime histories of either "pure" heroin dependence ( n = 64), "pure" amphetamine dependence ( n = 51), or polysubstance dependence ( n = 89), or had no history of substance dependence ( n = 133). Decision-making was assessed via two neurocognitive tasks: (1) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a measure of decision-making under ambiguity (i.e., uncertain risk contingencies); and (2) the Cambridge Gambling task (CGT), a measure of decision-making under risk (i.e., explicit risk contingencies). The main effects of neurocognitive performance and drug class on PG (defined as ≥3 DSM-IV PG symptoms) as well as their interactional effects were assessed via multiple linear regression. Two CGT indices of decision-making under risk demonstrated positive main effects on PG. Interaction effects indicated that the effects of decision-making under risk on PG were largely consistent across participant groups. Notably, a linear relationship between greater CGT Risk-Taking and PG symptoms was not observed among amphetamine users, whereas IGT performance was selectively and positively associated with PG in polysubstance users. Overall, results indicate that reward-based decision-making under risk may represent a risk factor for PG across substance users, with some variations in these relationships influenced by specific class of substance of abuse.

  6. Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  7. Decision-makers' Risk Perception in the Internationalisation of Small and Medium-Sized Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardsen, Jonas Strømfeldt; Marinova, Svetla Trifonova

    2016-01-01

    awareness exists, decision-makers do not perceive internationalisation as risky behaviour. Findings highlight the importance of decision-makers’ background, including cognitive and psychological characteristics, such as self-efficacy and locus of control, and their experiences in explaining risk perceptions......This study examines the risk perception of decision-makers in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and the factors underlying these perceptions in the process of internationalization of their firms. While risk perception has been identified as a potential predictor variable...... in internationalisation research, very little work has been done exploring the factors and processes that shape decision-makers’ perception of risk. A qualitative interview-based approach was adopted by collecting data from thirty-two Danish SMEs operating in four different industries. Findings suggest that while risk...

  8. Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

  9. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision-makers

  10. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  11. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tungju Wu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires on TMTs completed by representatives from enterprises in China and found risk perceptions and mental models that serve as a mediating factor and are affected by the TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. We also found that psychological ownership exerts moderating effects between TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. This paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications for enterprise owners.

  12. [Correlation of resistance to peer pressure and risky decision-making with adolescent health risk behaviors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Jing; Sun, Ying; Wang, Xi; Zu, Ping; Mai, Jin-cheng; Liang, Jian-ping; Xu, Zhi-yong; Man, Xue-jun; Mao, Yan; Tao, Fang-biao

    2013-03-01

    To explore possible interrelationships among resistance to peer pressure, risky decision-making and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. Based on the cluster sampling method, the participants who were recruited from 5 junior middle schools in Guangzhou and 3 junior middle schools in Shenyang city on October, 2010, were administered to complete the questionnaire concerned with their experiences with drinking and smoking during the past 30 days preceding the survey, and the hours using computer daily both in weekdays and in weekend. The level of resistance to peer influence and risky decision-making were assessed by Resistance to peer influence scale (RPIS) and Youth decision-making questionnaire (YDMQ). Logistic regression was used to explore possible interrelationships among resistance to peer influence, risky decision-making and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. A total of 1985 questionnaires were valid, including 1001(50.4%) boys and 984 (49.6%) girls. About 27.1% (537/1985) junior middle school students reported having health risk behaviors, boys' (30.7%, 307/1001) was higher than girls' (23.4%, 230/984) with significant gender difference (P peer influence (low and middle level vs high level, had odds ratios of 2.97 (1.96 - 4.50) and 1.51 (1.05 - 2.16)), and also the middle and high level of risky decision-making (middle and high level vs low level, had odds ratios of 1.62 (1.19 - 2.22) and 3.43 (2.39 - 4.90)) were all the risk factors of adolescent health risk behaviors. Adolescents with poor ability of resistance to peer pressure and high risky decision-making were both the risk factors of adolescent health risk behaviors.

  13. Risk perception, trust and public engagement in nuclear decision-making in Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mah, Daphne Ngar-yin; Hills, Peter; Tao, Julia

    2014-01-01

    The extent to which nuclear energy can be a feasible energy option has re-emerged as a subject of widespread debate following the Fukushima accident in Japan. However, relatively little is known about how public inputs can improve nuclear decision-making. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of public opinions regarding nuclear energy by examining its risk perception, trust and public engagement dimensions. Based on a survey of Hong Kong residents (n=509), we make some observations. Firstly, we offer empirical evidence that affirms the theoretical connections between risk perception, trust, and public engagement in the context of nuclear energy. Secondly, our logistic regression analysis indicates that demographics, trust, and perceptions of the efficacy of public engagement are factors explaining perceptions of greater risks and nuclear opposition. Thirdly, our conceptual model sheds light on the complexity of the trust concept, and specifies aspects of trust that are influential in the contexts of risk perception and nuclear choices. Our findings suggest that the Hong Kong government must ensure trust building receives prominent attention in nuclear decision-making, and that it should avoid excessive reliance on the business sector and should assume a key role for itself in enhancing trust in nuclear decision-making. - Highlights: • Risk perception, trust and public engagement matter to nuclear decision-making. • Our logistic regression analysis found that demographics, trust and perception of public engagement are the factors that explain risk perception and nuclear choice in Hong Kong. • Our conceptual model specifics aspects of trust that are influential

  14. Impaired decision-making under risk in individuals with alcohol dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine; Cleeremans, Axel; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision making to alcohol dependence. Methods Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals, and thirty healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task), and decision-making under-risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (Digit-span Forward), and dual-tasking (Operation-span Task). Results Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the Iowa Gambling Task, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes sub-serving working memory and risky decisions. Conclusion These results suggest that alcohol dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity), and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes. PMID:24948198

  15. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tungju Wu; Yenchun Jim Wu; Hsientang Tsai; Yibin Li

    2017-01-01

    Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT) of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires o...

  16. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-15

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Susan; Goebel, Kai Frank; Galvan, Jose Ramon

    2012-01-01

    Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

  18. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  19. Importance of risk comparison for individual and societal decision-making after the Fukushima disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2018-01-30

    Risk comparison is essential for effective societal and individual decision-making. After the Fukushima disaster, studies compared radiation and other disaster-related risks to determine the effective prioritizing of measures for response. Evaluating the value of risk comparison information can enable effective risk communication. In this review, the value of risk comparison after the Fukushima disaster for societal and individual decision-making is discussed while clarifying the concept of radiation risk assessment at low doses. The objectives of radiation risk assessment are explained within a regulatory science framework, including the historical adoption of the linear non-threshold theory. An example of risk comparison (i.e. radiation risk versus evacuation-related risk in nursing homes) is used to discuss the prioritization of pre-disaster measures. The effective communication of risk information by authorities is discussed with respect to group-based and face-to-face approaches. Furthermore, future perspectives regarding radiation risk comparisons are discussed. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

  20. Late Career Decision-Making: A Qualitative Panel Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmar Schaufeli; Annet de Lange; Juhani Ilmarinen; Per Erik Solem; Trude Furunes; Reidar Mykletun; Astri Syse

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this longitudinal qualitative interview study (3 waves of interviews) was to examine the nature of older workers’ late career decision-making processes, including the main drivers and obstacles for prolonging working life or retiring. Late career decision-making is regarded as a process

  1. The influence of emotion regulation on decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura N; Delgado, Mauricio R

    2011-09-01

    Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison with trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, BOLD responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum) and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse).

  2. The Influence of Emotion Regulation on Decision-making under Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura N.; Delgado, Mauricio R.

    2011-01-01

    Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison to trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum), and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse). PMID:21254801

  3. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  4. Strategic environmental assessment quality assurance: evaluating and improving the consistency of judgments in assessment panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, Bram F.

    2004-01-01

    Assessment panels and expert judgment are playing increasing roles in the practice of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Thus, the quality of an SEA decision rests considerably on the quality of the judgments of the assessment panel. However, there exists very little guidance in the SEA literature for practitioners concerning the treatment and integration of expert judgment into SEA decision-making processes. Subsequently, the performance of SEAs based on expert judgment is often less than satisfactory, and quality improvements are required in the SEA process. Based on the lessons learned from strategic- and project-level impact assessment practices, this paper outlines a number of principles concerning the use of assessment panels in SEA decision-making, and attempts to provide some guidance for SEA practitioners in this regard. Particular attention is given to the notion and value of consistency in assessment panel judgments

  5. Perceptions of corporate cyber risks and insurance decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Smidt, Guido; Botzen, Wouter

    This study provides an analysis of individual perceptions of cyber risks amongst professional decision makers. Data are collected using a survey of corporate professionals who are engaged in risk and insurance decision-making in various functional roles mainly in large companies. The study focuses

  6. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  8. Effort-Based Decision-Making in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culbreth, Adam J; Moran, Erin K; Barch, Deanna M

    2018-08-01

    Motivational impairment has long been associated with schizophrenia but the underlying mechanisms are not clearly understood. Recently, a small but growing literature has suggested that aberrant effort-based decision-making may be a potential contributory mechanism for motivational impairments in psychosis. Specifically, multiple reports have consistently demonstrated that individuals with schizophrenia are less willing than healthy controls to expend effort to obtain rewards. Further, this effort-based decision-making deficit has been shown to correlate with severity of negative symptoms and level of functioning, in many but not all studies. In the current review, we summarize this literature and discuss several factors that may underlie aberrant effort-based decision-making in schizophrenia.

  9. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

    2004-12-01

    Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the

  10. Attic Retrofits Using Nail-Base Insulated Panels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, David [Home Innovation Research Labs; Kochkin, Vladimir [Home Innovation Research Labs

    2018-03-26

    This project developed and demonstrated a roof/attic energy retrofit solution using nail-base insulated panels for existing homes where traditional attic insulation approaches are not effective or feasible. Nail-base insulated panels (retrofit panels) consist of rigid foam insulation laminated to one face of a wood structural panel. The prefabricated panels are installed above the existing roof deck during a reroofing effort.

  11. A study on decision-making framework for developing risk-informed technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Beom Seock

    2002-02-01

    The utility and the nuclear research institutes in Korea have conduct research for improving inefficient requirements in technical specifications using the results of probability risk assessments and information associated with risk. However, the guidance for reviewing the improved technical specifications has not been developed. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a decision-making framework for investigating and reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. This work has been done for helping the regulation agency to review the improved technical specifications as well as to make decisions whether the remedy is accepted or not. The contents of this study include: 1. Surveys on Technical Specification regulations in foreign countries as well as those in Korea 2. Surveys on the state- of- the- art methodology for Risk Informed Technical Specifications and their uses in Korea 3. Development of a decision-making framework in both the licensee and the regulation agency position 4. Development and applications of a decision-making framework using Influence Diagrams. The decision-making framework for RITS using Influence Diagrams are developed and applied to an example problem in this study. This work might contribute to developing the risk informed regulation guidance for improving the quality of the current technical specifications

  12. On the state of the art: risk communication to decision-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bier, V.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art on risk communication to decision-makers, with an emphasis on issues involved in communicating technical results. In particular, the paper discusses the treatment of uncertainty, variability, and dependence. It also reviews suggestions from the literature regarding the appropriate format of risk communication messages to decision-makers. Due to the lack of detailed empirical investigations and definitive results about this topic, the paper is not intended to be a comprehensive review, but rather as an exploration of key issues in this area

  13. Clinical application of multigene panels: challenges of next generation counseling and cancer risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Paul Slavin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Multigene panels can be a cost- and time-effective alternative to sequentially testing multiple genes, especially with a mixed family cancer phenotype. However, moving beyond our single-gene testing paradigm has unveiled many new challenges to the clinician. The purpose of this article is to familiarize the reader with some of the challenges, as well as potential opportunities, of expanded hereditary cancer panel testing. Methods: We include results from 348 commercial multigene panel tests ordered from January 1, 2014, through October 1, 2014, by clinicians associated with the City of Hope’s Clinical Cancer Genetics Community of Practice. We also discuss specific challenging cases that arose during this period involving abnormalities in the genes: CDH1, TP53, PMS2, PALB2, CHEK2, NBN, and RAD51C. Results: If historically high risk genes only were included in the panels (BRCA1, BRCA2, MSH6, PMS2, TP53, APC, CDH1, the results would have been positive only 6.2% of the time, instead of 17%. Results returned with variants of uncertain significance (VUS 42% of the time. Conclusion: These figures and cases stress the importance of adequate pretest counseling in anticipation of higher percentages of positive, VUS, unexpected, and ambiguous test results. Test result ambiguity can be limited by the use of phenotype specific panels; if found, multiple resources (the literature, reference laboratory, colleagues, national experts, and research efforts can be accessed to better clarify counseling and management for the patient and family. For pathogenic variants in low and moderate risk genes, empiric risk modeling based on the patient’s personal and family history of cancer may supersede gene-specific risk. Commercial laboratory and patient contributions to public databases and research efforts will be needed to better classify variants and reduce clinical ambiguity of multigene panels.

  14. Decision-making under risk and ambiguity in low-birth-weight pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Eimear; Kraak, Lynn; van den Broek, Jan; Nordquist, Rebecca E; van der Staay, Franz Josef

    2015-03-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) in humans is a risk factor for later cognitive, behavioural and emotional problems. In pigs, LBW is associated with higher mortality, but little is known about consequences for surviving piglets. Alteration in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function in LBW pigs suggests altered emotionality, but no behavioural indicators have been studied. Decision-making under uncertain conditions, e.g., risk or ambiguity, is susceptible to emotional influences and may provide a means of assessing long-term effects of LBW in piglets. We tested LBW (N = 8) and normal-birth-weight (NBW; N = 8) male pigs in two decision-making tasks. For decision-making under risk, we developed a simple two-choice probabilistic task, the Pig Gambling Task (PGT), where an 'advantageous' option offered small but frequent rewards and a 'disadvantageous' option offered large but infrequent rewards. The advantageous option offered greater overall gain. For decision-making under ambiguity, we used a Judgement Bias Task (JBT) where pigs were trained to make an active response to 'positive' and 'negative' tone cues (signalling large and small rewards, respectively). Responses to ambiguous tone cues were rated as more or less optimistic. LBW pigs chose the advantageous option more often in later blocks of the PGT, and were scored as less optimistic in the JBT, than NBW pigs. Our findings demonstrate that LBW pigs have developed different behavioural strategies with respect to decision-making. We propose that this is guided by changes in emotionality in LBW piglets, and we provide behavioural evidence of increased negative affect in LBW piglets.

  15. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  16. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  17. Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Landfill waste and recycling: Use of a screening-level risk assessment tool for end-of-life cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film photovoltaic (PV) panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyrs, William D.; Avens, Heather J.; Capshaw, Zachary A.; Kingsbury, Robert A.; Sahmel, Jennifer; Tvermoes, Brooke E.

    2014-01-01

    Grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) power is currently one of the fastest growing power-generation technologies in the world. While PV technologies provide the environmental benefit of zero emissions during use, the use of heavy metals in thin-film PV cells raises important health and environmental concerns regarding the end-of-life disposal of PV panels. To date, there is no published quantitative assessment of the potential human health risk due to cadmium leaching from cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV panels disposed in a landfill. Thus, we used a screening-level risk assessment tool to estimate possible human health risk associated with disposal of CdTe panels into landfills. In addition, we conducted a literature review of potential cadmium release from the recycling process in order to contrast the potential health risks from PV panel disposal in landfills to those from PV panel recycling. Based on the results of our literature review, a meaningful risk comparison cannot be performed at this time. Based on the human health risk estimates generated for PV panel disposal, our assessment indicated that landfill disposal of CdTe panels does not pose a human health hazard at current production volumes, although our results pointed to the importance of CdTe PV panel end-of-life management. - Highlights: • Analysis of possible human health risk posed by disposal of CdTe panels into landfills. • Qualitative comparison of risks associated with landfill disposal and recycling of CdTe panels. • Landfill disposal of CdTe panels does not pose a human health hazard at current production volumes. • There could be potential risks associated with recycling if not properly managed. • Factors other than concerns over toxic substances will likely drive the decisions of how to manage end-of-life PV panels

  19. Social and behavioral research on risk: uses in risk management decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1984-01-01

    The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principal uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decision-making. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems. (author)

  20. Protocol-based care: the standardisation of decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rycroft-Malone, Jo; Fontenla, Marina; Seers, Kate; Bick, Debra

    2009-05-01

    To explore how protocol-based care affects clinical decision-making. In the context of evidence-based practice, protocol-based care is a mechanism for facilitating the standardisation of care and streamlining decision-making through rationalising the information with which to make judgements and ultimately decisions. However, whether protocol-based care does, in the reality of practice, standardise decision-making is unknown. This paper reports on a study that explored the impact of protocol-based care on nurses' decision-making. Theoretically informed by realistic evaluation and the promoting action on research implementation in health services framework, a case study design using ethnographic methods was used. Two sites were purposively sampled; a diabetic and endocrine unit and a cardiac medical unit. Within each site, data collection included observation, postobservation semi-structured interviews with staff and patients, field notes, feedback sessions and document review. Data were inductively and thematically analysed. Decisions made by nurses in both sites were varied according to many different and interacting factors. While several standardised care approaches were available for use, in reality, a variety of information sources informed decision-making. The primary approach to knowledge exchange and acquisition was person-to-person; decision-making was a social activity. Rarely were standardised care approaches obviously referred to; nurses described following a mental flowchart, not necessarily linked to a particular guideline or protocol. When standardised care approaches were used, it was reported that they were used flexibly and particularised. While the logic of protocol-based care is algorithmic, in the reality of clinical practice, other sources of information supported nurses' decision-making process. This has significant implications for the political goal of standardisation. The successful implementation and judicious use of tools such as

  1. Risky decision-making under risk in schizophrenia: A deliberate choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Anya; Göder, Robert; Tomczyk, Samuel; Ohrmann, Patricia

    2017-09-01

    Patients with schizophrenia reveal impaired decision-making strategies causing social, financial and health care problems. The extent to which deficits in decision-making reflect intentional risky choices in schizophrenia is still under debate. Based on previous studies we expected patients with schizophrenia to reveal a riskier performance on the GDT and to make more disadvantageous decisions on the IGT. In the present study, we investigated 38 patients with schizophrenia and 38 matched healthy control subjects with two competing paradigms regarding feedback: (1) The Game of Dice Task (GDT), in which the probabilities of winning or losing are stable and explicitly disclosed to the subject, to assess decision-making under risk and (2) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which requires subjects to infer the probabilities of winning or losing from feedback, to investigate decision-making under ambiguity. Patients with schizophrenia revealed an overall riskier performance on the GDT; although they adjusted their strategy over the course of the GDT, they still made significantly more disadvantageous choices than controls. More positive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia indicated by higher PANSS positive scores were associated with riskier choices and less use of negative feedback. Compared to healthy controls, they were not impaired in net score but chose more disadvantageous cards than controls on the first block of the IGT. Effects of medication at the time of testing cannot be ruled out. Our findings suggest that patients with schizophrenia make riskier decisions and are less able to regulate their decision-making to implement advantageous strategies, even when the probabilities of winning or losing are explicitly disclosed. The dissociation between performance on the GDT and IGT suggests a pronounced impairment of executive functions related to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Scrutinizing screening: a critical interpretive review of primary care provider perspectives on mammography decision-making with average-risk women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siedlikowski, Sophia; Ells, Carolyn; Bartlett, Gillian

    2018-01-01

    A decision to undertake screening for breast cancer often takes place within the primary care setting, but current controversies such as overdiagnosis and inconsistent screening recommendations based on evolving evidence render this a challenging process, particularly for average-risk women. Given the responsibility of primary care providers in counseling women in this decision-making process, it is important to understand their thoughts on these controversies and how they manage uncertainty in their practice. To review the perspectives and approaches of primary care providers regarding mammography decision-making with average-risk women. This study is a critical interpretive review of peer-review literature that reports primary care provider perspectives on mammography screening decision-making. Ovid MEDLINE®, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus databases were searched with dates from 2002 to 2017 using search terms related to mammography screening, uncertainty, counseling, decision-making, and primary health care providers. Nine articles were included following a review process involving the three authors. Using an inductive and iterative approach, data were grouped into four thematic categories: (1) perceptions on the effectiveness of screening, screening initiation age, and screening frequency; (2) factors guiding primary care providers in the screening decision-making process, including both provider and patient-related factors, (3) uncertainty faced by primary care providers regarding guidelines and screening discussions with their patients; and (4) informed decision-making with average-risk women, including factors that facilitate and hinder this process. The discussion of results addresses several factors about the diversity of perspectives and practices of physicians counseling average-risk women regarding breast cancer screening. This has implications for the challenge of understanding and explaining evidence, what should be shared with average-risk women

  3. PV panel model based on datasheet values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sera, Dezso; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2007-01-01

    This work presents the construction of a model for a PV panel using the single-diode five-parameters model, based exclusively on data-sheet parameters. The model takes into account the series and parallel (shunt) resistance of the panel. The equivalent circuit and the basic equations of the PV cell....... Based on these equations, a PV panel model, which is able to predict the panel behavior in different temperature and irradiance conditions, is built and tested....

  4. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  5. Solar Panel based Milk Pasteurization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard; Pedersen, Tom Søndergaard

    This paper treats the subject of analysis, design and development of the control system for a solar panel based milk pasteurization system to be used in small villages in Tanzania. The analysis deals with the demands for an acceptable pasteurization, the varying energy supply and the low cost, low...... complexity, simple user interface and high reliability demands. Based on these demands a concept for the pasteurization system is established and a control system is developed. A solar panel has been constructed and the energy absorption has been tested in Tanzania. Based on the test, the pasteurization...... system is dimensioned. A functional prototype of the pasteurization facility with a capacity of 200 l milk/hour has been developed and tested. The system is prepared for solar panels as the main energy source and is ready for a test in Tanzania....

  6. Solar Panel based Milk Pasteurization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard; Pedersen, Tom Søndergaard

    2002-01-01

    This paper treats the subject of analysis, design and development of the control system for a solar panel based milk pasteurization system to be used in small villages in Tanzania. The analysis deals with the demands for an acceptable pasteurization, the varying energy supply and the low cost, low...... complexity, simple user interface and high reliability demands. Based on these demands a concept for the pasteurization system is established and a control system is developed. A solar panel has been constructed and the energy absorption has been tested in Tanzania. Based on the test, the pasteurization...... system is dimensioned. A functional prototype of the pasteurization facility with a capacity of 200 l milk/hour has been developed and tested. The system is prepared for solar panels as the main energy source and is ready for a test in Tanzania....

  7. Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

    2013-12-01

    Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

  8. 2013 Nutrition Risk Evidence Review Panel. Evidence Review for: The Risk Factor of Inadequate Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The 2013 Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on November 20 - 21, 2013. The SRP reviewed the new Evidence Report for the Risk Factor of Inadequate Nutrition (from here on referred to as the 2013 Nutrition Evidence Report), as well as the Research Plan for this Risk. Overall, the SRP thinks the well-qualified research team has compiled an excellent summary of background information in the 2013 Nutrition Evidence Report. The SRP would like to commend the authors in general and particularly note that while the 2013 Nutrition Evidence Report has been written using a single nutrient approach, the research plan takes a much more integrated and physiologically based approach.

  9. Foraging Value, Risk Avoidance, and Multiple Control Signals: How the Anterior Cingulate Cortex Controls Value-based Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Joshua W; Alexander, William H

    2017-10-01

    Recent work on the role of the ACC in cognition has focused on choice difficulty, action value, risk avoidance, conflict resolution, and the value of exerting control among other factors. A main underlying question is what are the output signals of ACC, and relatedly, what is their effect on downstream cognitive processes? Here we propose a model of how ACC influences cognitive processing in other brain regions that choose actions. The model builds on the earlier Predicted Response Outcome model and suggests that ACC learns to represent specifically the states in which the potential costs or risks of an action are high, on both short and long timescales. It then uses those cost signals as a basis to bias decisions to minimize losses while maximizing gains. The model simulates both proactive and reactive control signals and accounts for a variety of empirical findings regarding value-based decision-making.

  10. Neural mechanisms regulating different forms of risk-related decision-making: Insights from animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Moorman, David E; Young, Jared W; Setlow, Barry; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-11-01

    Over the past 20 years there has been a growing interest in the neural underpinnings of cost/benefit decision-making. Recent studies with animal models have made considerable advances in our understanding of how different prefrontal, striatal, limbic and monoaminergic circuits interact to promote efficient risk/reward decision-making, and how dysfunction in these circuits underlies aberrant decision-making observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. This review will highlight recent findings from studies exploring these questions using a variety of behavioral assays, as well as molecular, pharmacological, neurophysiological, and translational approaches. We begin with a discussion of how neural systems related to decision subcomponents may interact to generate more complex decisions involving risk and uncertainty. This is followed by an overview of interactions between prefrontal-amygdala-dopamine and habenular circuits in regulating choice between certain and uncertain rewards and how different modes of dopamine transmission may contribute to these processes. These data will be compared with results from other studies investigating the contribution of some of these systems to guiding decision-making related to rewards vs. punishment. Lastly, we provide a brief summary of impairments in risk-related decision-making associated with psychiatric disorders, highlighting recent translational studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. End-of-life decision-making in Canada: the report by the Royal Society of Canada expert panel on end-of-life decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüklenk, Udo; van Delden, Johannes J M; Downie, Jocelyn; McLean, Sheila A M; Upshur, Ross; Weinstock, Daniel

    2011-11-01

    This report on end-of-life decision-making in Canada was produced by an international expert panel and commissioned by the Royal Society of Canada. It consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 reviews what is known about end-of-life care and opinions about assisted dying in Canada. Chapter 2 reviews the legal status quo in Canada with regard to various forms of assisted death. Chapter 3 reviews ethical issues pertaining to assisted death. The analysis is grounded in core values central to Canada's constitutional order. Chapter 4 reviews the experiences had in a number of jurisdictions that have decriminalized or recently reviewed assisted dying in some shape or form. Chapter 5 provides recommendations with regard to the provision of palliative care in Canada, as well as recommendations for reform with respect to the various forms of assisted death covered in this document. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Twenty-year Risk of Prostate Cancer Death by Midlife Prostate-specific Antigen and a Panel of Four Kallikrein Markers in a Large Population-based Cohort of Healthy Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjoberg, Daniel D; Vickers, Andrew J; Assel, Melissa; Dahlin, Anders; Poon, Bing Ying; Ulmert, David; Lilja, Hans

    2018-06-01

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening reduces prostate cancer deaths but leads to harm from overdiagnosis and overtreatment. To determine the long-term risk of prostate cancer mortality using kallikrein blood markers measured at baseline in a large population of healthy men to identify men with low risk for prostate cancer death. Study based on the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort enrolling 11 506 unscreened men aged 45-73 yr during 1991-1996, providing cryopreserved blood at enrollment and followed without PSA screening to December 31, 2014. We measured four kallikrein markers in the blood of 1223 prostate cancer cases and 3028 controls. Prostate cancer death (n=317) by PSA and a prespecified statistical model based on the levels of four kallikrein markers. Baseline PSA predicted prostate cancer death with a concordance index of 0.86. In men with elevated PSA (≥2.0ng/ml), predictive accuracy was enhanced by the four-kallikrein panel compared with PSA (0.80 vs 0.73; improvement 0.07; 95% confidence interval 0.04, 0.10). Nearly half of men aged 60+ yr with elevated PSA had a four-kallikrein panel score of four-kallikrein panel score of ≥7.5% had a 13% risk of prostate cancer death at 15 yr. A prespecified statistical model based on four kallikrein markers (commercially available as the 4Kscore) reclassified many men with modestly elevated PSA, to have a low long-term risk of prostate cancer death. Men with elevated PSA but low scores from the four-kallikrein panel can be monitored rather than being subject to biopsy. Men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) are often referred for prostate biopsy. However, men with elevated PSA but low scores from the four-kallikrein panel can be monitored rather than being subject to biopsy. Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Modelling financial risk in open pit mine projects: Implications for strategic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Sabour, S.A.; Wood, G.

    2009-01-01

    Strategic decisions in the mining industry are made under multiple technical and market uncertainties. Therefore, to reach the best possible decision, based on information available, it is necessary to integrate uncertainty about the input variables and model financial risk of the project's merit measures. However, this rovides few useful insights to decision-makers unless accompanied by modeling management responses to uncertainty resolutions. It is widely acknowledged that conventional deci...

  14. Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Enrico Rubaltelli; Sergio Agnoli; Michela Rancan; Tiziana Pozzoli

    2015-01-01

    Previous work on investment decision-making suggested that emotions prevent investors from taking risks and from investing in a rational way, whereas other work found that there is great variability in people’s ability to manage and use emotional feedbacks. We hypothesized that people with high trait emotional intelligence should be more willing, than people with low trait emotional intelligence, to accept risks when making an investment. Data supported a model in which trait emotional intell...

  15. The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Pandey

    2018-01-01

    A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

  16. Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan eZhang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

  17. Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Mavis F.

    2001-01-01

    This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

  18. On the perceived usefulness of risk descriptions for decision-making in disaster risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Lexin; Nilsson, Anders; Sjölin, Johan; Abrahamsson, Marcus; Tehler, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Managing risk using an “all-hazards” and “whole of society”-approach involves extensive communication of risk descriptions among many stakeholders. In the present study we investigate how professionals working with disaster risk management in such contexts perceive the usefulness of different descriptions of risk. Empirical data from the Swedish disaster risk management system were used in an attempt to investigate the aspects of a risk description that affect its usefulness (as perceived by professionals). Thirty-three local municipal risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA documents) produced in the region of Scania in 2012 were analyzed in terms of six variables. The documents were then ranked by professionals based on their perceived usefulness for decision-making. Statistical analysis was conducted to identify any possible correlations between the overall ranking of the usefulness of the municipal RVA:s and each of the variables. We conclude that the way the likelihood and consequences of scenarios are described influence the perceived usefulness of a risk description. Furthermore, whether descriptions of scenarios are included in a risk description or not, and whether background information concerning the likelihood of scenarios are included also influence perceived usefulness of risk descriptions. - Highlights: • Written communication of risk between professionals is investigated. • The way likelihood is described influences a risk description's usefulness. • The way consequences are described influence a risk description's usefulness. • Whether background information is included in a risk description influences its usefulness

  19. Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2008-07-01

    The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

  20. Public participation in decision-making for contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Sharp, S.L.

    2000-01-01

    Public participation is critical in environmental decision-making. This paper provides three examples of public participation in the decision making process. The first example illustrates the effectiveness of public involvement when incorporated at the beginning of a project. The second example shows the loss of trust by a community resulting from the lack of public involvement. The third example demonstrates public involvement in making risk-based decisions for corrective action in a non-radiological situation. The first site is the Los Alamos National Laboratory where a lawsuit filed by local citizens led to an independent audit of the laboratory's compliance with the Clean Air Act for radionuclides. The audit team involved the public extensively, resulting in close interaction during the audit and a better understanding by the public of the regulations. The second site is the Rocky Flats Plant nuclear weapons facility, which is being decommissioned and the surrounding property will ultimately be available for public use. The Department of Energy proposed a cleanup level but the level was developed with little public input and has been criticized widely by local residents. As a result, the target cleanup levels are being reevaluated by an independent contractor with oversight from a panel of local members of the public. Working with the independent contractor, the panel proposed new cleanup standards to the Department of Energy. The third site is a bulk oil and terminal where chemicals have migrated offsite into a residential area. Facility owners have initiated a public involvement program to help the community understand the potential risks involved and alternatives for remedial action. The public is playing a key role in the risk-based decision making process. Each of these examples illustrates the importance of public participation in different situations. (author)

  1. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

    2016-12-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  2. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

  3. Apathy and emotion-based decision-making in amnesic mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayard, Sophie; Jacus, Jean-Pierre; Raffard, Stéphane; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine

    2014-01-01

    Apathy and reduced emotion-based decision-making are two behavioral modifications independently described in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). The aims of this study were to investigate decision-making based on emotional feedback processing in AD and aMCI and to study the impact of reduced decision-making performances on apathy. We recruited 20 patients with AD, 20 participants with aMCI, and 20 healthy controls. All participants completed the Lille apathy rating scale (LARS) and the Iowa gambling task (IGT). Both aMCI and AD participants had reduced performances on the IGT and were more apathetic compared to controls without any difference between aMCI and AD groups. For the entire sample, LARS initiation dimension was related to IGT disadvantageous decision-making profile. We provide the first study showing that both aMCI and AD individuals make less profitable decisions than controls, whereas aMCI and AD did not differ. Disadvantageous decision-making profile on the IGT was associated with higher level of apathy on the action initiation dimension. The role of an abnormal IGT performance as a risk factor for the development of apathy needs to be investigated in other clinical populations and in normal aging.

  4. Computer-based diagnostic decisionmaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R A

    1987-12-01

    The three decisionmaking aids described by the authors attack the generic problem of "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil"--improving the detection, diagnosis, and therapy of psychiatric disorders in the primary care setting. The three systems represent interventions at different steps in the process of providing appropriate care to psychiatric patients. The DSPW system of Robins and Marcus offers the potential of increasing the recognition of psychiatric disease in the physician's office. Politser's IDS program is representative of the sort of sophisticated microcomputer-based decisionmaking support tools that will become available to physicians in the not-too-distant future. Erdman's study of the impact of explanation capabilities on the acceptability of therapy recommending systems points out the need for careful scientific evaluations of features added to diagnostic and therapeutic systems.

  5. Perceived social risk in medical decision-making for physical child abuse: a mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Heather T; Campbell, Kristine A; Page, Kent; Cook, Lawrence J; Bardsley, Tyler; Olson, Lenora M

    2017-12-22

    The medical literature reports differential decision-making for children with suspected physical abuse based on race and socioeconomic status. Differential evaluation may be related to differences of risk indicators in these populations or differences in physicians' perceptions of abuse risk. Our objective was to understand the contribution of the child's social ecology to child abuse pediatricians' perception of abuse risk and to test whether risk perception influences diagnostic decision-making. Thirty-two child abuse pediatrician participants prospectively contributed 746 consultations from for children referred for physical abuse evaluation (2009-2013). Participants entered consultations to a web-based interface. Participants noted their perception of child race, family SES, abuse diagnosis. Participants rated their perception of social risk for abuse and diagnostic certainty on a 1-100 scale. Consultations (n = 730) meeting inclusion criteria were qualitatively analyzed for social risk indicators, social and non-social cues. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we examined the associations of social risk indicators with participant social risk perception. We reversed social risk indicators in 102 cases whilst leaving all injury mechanism and medical information unchanged. Participants reviewed these reversed cases and recorded their social risk perception, diagnosis and diagnostic certainty. After adjustment for physician characteristics and social risk indicators, social risk perception was highest in the poorest non-minority families (24.9 points, 95%CI: 19.2, 30.6) and minority families (17.9 points, 95%CI, 12.8, 23.0). Diagnostic certainty and perceived social risk were associated: certainty increased as social risk perception increased (Spearman correlation 0.21, p < 0.001) in probable abuse cases; certainty decreased as risk perception increased (Spearman correlation (-)0.19, p = 0.003) in probable not abuse cases. Diagnostic decisions changed

  6. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  7. Adherence to infection prevention and control guidelines: A vignette-based study of decision-making and risk-taking in young adults with cystic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowmer, Grace; Latchford, Gary; Duff, Alistair; Denton, Miles; Dye, Louise; Lawton, Clare; Lee, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Balancing cystic fibrosis (CF) care with demands of normal life is associated with decreased adherence to infection prevention and control (IPC) guidelines. Adults with CF, aged 18-25years, were invited to participate via UK CF Trust social media platforms. An online survey evaluated participants' decision-making in nine clinician-rated vignettes and assessed the perceived influence of infection-related information sources. Participants (n=87, mean 21.4years [SD=2.45]; 75% female) were less likely to engage in the high-risk scenarios, although demonstrated greater awareness of cross-infection than environmental risks. Associations between risk-perception and willingness to participate in five vignette-based hypothetical activities were significant (prisk-levels but are not always based on robust knowledge. They also show some inclination towards engaging in risky behaviours. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Development and aging of decision-making rationality under risk framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-hui LIU

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Humans often display irrational choice and decision-making due to the frame effect. However, it is unclear whether this irrational choice and decision-making will increase during the aging process. Methods The present research explored development and aging of risky-seeking and rational decision-making with 232 younger adults and 120 older adults. The experiment was a 2 (Age:younger adult and old adult × 2 (Frame: positive and negative × 2 (Relevance: lower level and higher level, with the risky probability as a control variable and the decision-making scores as dependent variables. Results The results revealed that older adults demonstrated much more irrational decision-making (framing effect. In the detail, the risky decision-making score of the older adults in the positive framing was 5.13 ± 2.12, and 6.55 ± 1.05 in the negative framing [F (1, 118 = 21.470, P = 0.000; η2 = 0.156], while the risky decision-making score of the younger adults in the positive framing was 3.18 ± 2.49, and 5.00 ± 2.41 in the negative framing [F (1, 230 = 31.260, P = 0.000; η 2 = 0.121]. Meanwhile, the older adults showed risk seeking for the life-death scenario [F (1, 350 = 4.820, P = 0.029]. Conclusions These results suggested that the hypofunction in orbital and medial prefrontal cortex and amygdale in older adults might be the underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, the susceptibility to expected value (EV of the older adults might decrease although their scores in risky probability understanding were not significantly different from the younger adults. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2014.03.008

  9. Dissociable roles for the basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex in decision-making under risk of punishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Trotta, Rose T; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2015-01-28

    Several neuropsychiatric disorders are associated with abnormal decision-making involving risk of punishment, but the neural basis of this association remains poorly understood. Altered activity in brain systems including the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) can accompany these same disorders, and these structures are implicated in some forms of decision-making. The current study investigated the role of the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Rats were trained in the risky decision-making task (RDT), in which they chose between two levers, one that delivered a small safe reward, and the other that delivered a large reward accompanied by varying risks of footshock punishment. Following training, they received sham or neurotoxic lesions of BLA or OFC, followed by RDT retesting. BLA lesions increased choice of the large risky reward (greater risk-taking) compared to both prelesion performance and sham controls. When reward magnitudes were equated, both BLA lesion and control groups shifted their choice to the safe (no shock) reward lever, indicating that the lesions did not impair punishment sensitivity. In contrast to BLA lesions, OFC lesions significantly decreased risk-taking compared with sham controls, but did not impair discrimination between different reward magnitudes or alter baseline levels of anxiety. Finally, neither lesion significantly affected food-motivated lever pressing under various fixed ratio schedules, indicating that lesion-induced alterations in risk-taking were not secondary to changes in appetitive motivation. Together, these findings indicate distinct roles for the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351368-12$15.00/0.

  10. Perspectives on benefit-risk decision-making in vaccinology: Conference report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, M; Simondon, F; Saadatian-Elahi, M

    2016-01-01

    Benefit/risk (B/R) assessment methods are increasingly being used by regulators and companies as an important decision-making tool and their outputs as the basis of communication. B/R appraisal of vaccines, as compared with drugs, is different due to their attributes and their use. For example, vaccines are typically given to healthy people, and, for some vaccines, benefits exist both at the population and individual level. For vaccines in particular, factors such as the benefit afforded through herd effects as a function of vaccine coverage and consequently impact the B/R ratio, should also be taken into consideration and parameterized in B/R assessment models. Currently, there is no single agreed methodology for vaccine B/R assessment that can fully capture all these aspects. The conference "Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision-making in Vaccinology," held in Annecy (France), addressed these issues and provided recommendations on how to advance the science and practice of B/R assessment of vaccines and vaccination programs.

  11. An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Stochastic Decision-Making Method Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.

  12. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  13. The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2017-01-01

    One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this article, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks.

  14. Apathy and Emotion-Based Decision-Making in Amnesic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer’s Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Bayard

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Apathy and reduced emotion-based decision-making are two behavioral modifications independently described in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI. Objectives. The aims of this study were to investigate decision-making based on emotional feedback processing in AD and aMCI and to study the impact of reduced decision-making performances on apathy. Methods. We recruited 20 patients with AD, 20 participants with aMCI, and 20 healthy controls. All participants completed the Lille apathy rating scale (LARS and the Iowa gambling task (IGT. Results. Both aMCI and AD participants had reduced performances on the IGT and were more apathetic compared to controls without any difference between aMCI and AD groups. For the entire sample, LARS initiation dimension was related to IGT disadvantageous decision-making profile. Conclusions. We provide the first study showing that both aMCI and AD individuals make less profitable decisions than controls, whereas aMCI and AD did not differ. Disadvantageous decision-making profile on the IGT was associated with higher level of apathy on the action initiation dimension. The role of an abnormal IGT performance as a risk factor for the development of apathy needs to be investigated in other clinical populations and in normal aging.

  15. Proposing a model for safety risk assessment in the construction industry using gray multi-criterion decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Abootorabi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Statistical Report of the Social Security Organization indicate that among the various industries, the construction industry has the highest number of work-related accidents so that in addition to frequency, it has high intensity, as well. On the other hand, a large number of human resources are working in this whish shows they necessity for paying special attention to these workers. Therefore, risk assessment of the safety in the construction industry is an effective step in this regard. In this study, a method for ranking safety risks in conditions of low number of samples and uncertainty is presented, using gray multi-criterion decision-making. .Material and Method: In this study, we first identified the factors affecting the occurrence of hazards in the construction industry. Then, appropriate for ranking the risks were determined and the problem was defined as a multi-criterion decision-making. In order to weight the criteria and to evaluate alternatives based on each criterion, gray numbers were used. In the last stage, the problem was solved using the gray possibility degree. .Results: The results show that the method of gray multi-criterion decision-making is an effective method for ranking risks in situations of low samples compared with other methods of MCDM. .Conclusion: The proposed method is preferred to fuzzy methods and statistics in uncertain and low sample size, due to simple calculations and no need to define the membership function.

  16. Decision-Making Competence Predicts Domain-Specific Risk Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua eWeller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision Making Competence (DMC reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804 completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery (A-DMC; Bruine de Bruin, Parker, & Fischhoff, 2007. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC  expected benefits  risk-taking than the DMC  perceived riskrisk-taking path, especially for risk behaviors that may be considered more antisocial in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of the given behavior.

  17. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-01-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

  18. 基于有限理性的企业家战略决策风险行为研究%Research on Risk Behavior for the Strategic Decision-making of Entrepreneur Based on Bounded Rationality

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任静; 刘升福

    2014-01-01

    企业家认知的有限性决定了企业家在有限理性的状态下进行战略决策。基于行为经济学和决策行为理论,研究有限理性下企业家战略决策风险行为及其影响因素。通过建立模型和实证研究来探讨企业家战略决策风险行为及其影响因素对战略决策风险行为的影响,从而为企业家战略决策风险行为管理提供依据。%The limitation of Entrepreneurs′cognition decides that entrepreneurs make strategic decisions under the limited rational state.The paper,based on the theory of behavioral economics and the decision-making behavior,studies the entrepreneur strategic decision deviation behavior based on bounded rationality and its influencing factors.Through the questionnaire,interviews and the empirical research,the paper explores the various influencing factors of entrepreneur strategic decision-making risk behavior influence on strategic decision-making risk behaviors,so as to provide the basis for entrepreneurs strategic decision-making risk behavior management.

  19. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  20. Characterization of Air-Based Photovoltaic Thermal Panels with Bifacial Solar Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ooshaksaraei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Photovoltaic (PV panels account for a majority of the cost of photovoltaic thermal (PVT panels. Bifacial silicon solar panels are attractive for PVT panels because of their potential to enhance electrical power generation from the same silicon wafer compared with conventional monofacial solar panels. This paper examines the performance of air-based bifacial PVT panels with regard to the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Four air-based bifacial PVT panels were designed. The maximum efficiencies of 45% to 63% were observed for the double-path-parallel bifacial PVT panel based on the first law of thermodynamics. Single-path bifacial PVT panel represents the highest exergy efficiency (10%. Double-path-parallel bifacial PVT panel is the second preferred design as it generates up to 20% additional total energy compared with the single-path panel. However, the daily average exergy efficiency of a double-path-parallel panel is 0.35% lower than that of a single-path panel.

  1. Analysis of the risk management decisionmaking processes and the decision support systems in the wildland fire agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Withen

    2007-01-01

    This paper offers an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the risk management process, decision support systems (DSSs), and other types of decisionmaking, including recognition primed decisionmaking, bricolage with the goal of improving DSSs and decisionmaking. DSSs may be thought of as any technology or knowledge that is used as an aid...

  2. Vicarious Effort-Based Decision-Making in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosner, Maya G; Kinard, Jessica L; McWeeny, Sean; Shah, Jasmine S; Markiewitz, Nathan D; Damiano-Goodwin, Cara R; Burchinal, Margaret R; Rutherford, Helena J V; Greene, Rachel K; Treadway, Michael T; Dichter, Gabriel S

    2017-10-01

    This study investigated vicarious effort-based decision-making in 50 adolescents with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) compared to 32 controls using the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task. Participants made choices to win money for themselves or for another person. When choosing for themselves, the ASD group exhibited relatively similar patterns of effort-based decision-making across reward parameters. However, when choosing for another person, the ASD group demonstrated relatively decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude, particularly in the high magnitude condition. Finally, patterns of responding in the ASD group were related to individual differences in consummatory pleasure capacity. These findings indicate atypical vicarious effort-based decision-making in ASD and more broadly add to the growing body of literature addressing social reward processing deficits in ASD.

  3. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ersdal, Gerhard; Aven, Terje

    2008-01-01

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle

  4. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ersdal, Gerhard [University of Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: gerhard.ersdal@ptil.no; Aven, Terje [University of Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-02-15

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle.

  5. Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

    2014-07-01

    To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception

    OpenAIRE

    Bond Lyndal; Nolan Terry

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding o...

  7. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  8. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  9. Pulmonary embolism in old age: usefulness of risk stratification in clinical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Bova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism (PE is a common disease with a not negligible short-term risk of death, in particular in the elderly. An adequate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with PE may guide decision-making in terms of the intensity of the initial treatment during the acute phase. Patients with shock or persistent hypotension are at high risk of early mortality and may benefit from immediate reperfusion. Several tools are available to define the short-term prognosis of hemodynamically stable patients. The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI score, and the simplified PESI score are particularly useful for identifying patients at low risk of early complications who might be safely treated at home. The identification of patients who are hemodynamically stable at diagnosis but are at a high risk of early complications is more challenging. Current guidelines recommend a multi-parametric prognostic algorithm based on the clinical status, biomarkers and imaging tests. However an aggressive treatment in hemodynamically stable patients is still controversial.

  10. Impaired decision-making under risk is associated with gaming-specific inhibition deficits among college students with Internet gaming disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yuan-Wei; Wang, Ling-Jiao; Yip, Sarah W; Chen, Pin-Ru; Li, Song; Xu, Jiansong; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Qin-Xue; Fang, Xiao-Yi

    2015-09-30

    A growing body of evidence indicates that both inhibition and decision-making deficits play essential roles in the development and maintenance of Internet gaming disorder (IGD). Clarifying whether impaired decision-making among individuals with IGD is related to poor inhibition will advance our understanding of IGD and contribute to intervention development. However, the relationship between these two functions remains unclear. In this study, we sought to systemically examine inhibitory processes, decision-making and the relationship between the two among individuals with IGD. Thirty-four individuals with IGD and 32 matched healthy controls (HCs) were recruited. In comparison to HCs, IGD subjects demonstrated inhibition deficits during performance of the gaming-related Go/No-Go task and impaired decision-making under risk. In addition, errors on No-Go trials during the gaming-related Go/No-Go task were positively associated with decision-making impairments under risk but not under ambiguity among IGD subjects. These results suggest individuals with IGD are impaired in some aspects of inhibition and decision-making functions, and that decision-making deficits under risk are linked to poor inhibition specifically related to gaming cues, which has implications for the development of novel intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Ballistic study of Tensylon®–based panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L-C. Alil

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Ballistic protection is a matter of interest requested by civilian as well as military needs. The last decade has witnessed an increase in the use of light weight and efficient armour systems. These panels may be used for body protection as well as light vehicle protection against small calibres or to enhance the protection level of heavier vehicles with decreasing or maintaining their weight penalty. Ultra high molecular weight polyethylene is a material of interest for light weight armour applications. The authors designed panels made of hot–pressed Tensylon® in different configurations with thin steel sheets as a backing and shield protection. Comparison of their ballistic performance to the theory predictions reveals the improved ballistic response of the panels. In addition, a non–pressed Tensylon® panel has been tested in order to facilitate the observations of the failure mechanisms inside the panels. Even if not suitable for practical use, such non–pressed panels clearly reveal the dynamic processes at micro–scale that occur during the impact. The failure mechanisms of the material under bullet penetration are discussed based on photography, optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The supposed effects of the panel pressing are discussed based on the observed difference between pressed and non–pressed structures ballistic response.

  12. Genetic Counselors' Experiences Regarding Communication of Reproductive Risks with Autosomal Recessive Conditions found on Cancer Panels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mets, Sarah; Tryon, Rebecca; Veach, Patricia McCarthy; Zierhut, Heather A

    2016-04-01

    The development of hereditary cancer genetic testing panels has altered genetic counseling practice. Mutations within certain genes on cancer panels pose not only a cancer risk, but also a reproductive risk for autosomal recessive conditions such as Fanconi anemia, constitutional mismatch repair deficiency syndrome, and ataxia telangiectasia. This study aimed to determine if genetic counselors discuss reproductive risks for autosomal recessive conditions associated with genes included on cancer panels, and if so, under what circumstances these risks are discussed. An on-line survey was emailed through the NSGC list-serv. The survey assessed 189 cancer genetic counselors' experiences discussing reproductive risks with patients at risk to carry a mutation or variant of uncertain significance (VUS) in a gene associated with both an autosomal dominant cancer risk and an autosomal recessive syndrome. Over half (n = 82, 55 %) reported having discussed reproductive risks; the remainder (n = 66, 45 %) had not. Genetic counselors who reported discussing reproductive risks primarily did so when patients had a positive result and were of reproductive age. Reasons for not discussing these risks included when a patient had completed childbearing or when a VUS was identified. Most counselors discussed reproductive risk after obtaining results and not during the informed consent process. There is inconsistency as to if and when the discussion of reproductive risks is taking place. The wide variation in responses suggests a need to develop professional guidelines for when and how discussions of reproductive risk for autosomal recessive conditions identified through cancer panels should occur with patients.

  13. How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

    2018-06-01

    Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of

  14. How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

    2018-06-13

    Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of

  15. Supporting decision-making processes for evidence-based mental health promotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jané-Llopis, Eva; Katschnig, Heinz; McDaid, David; Wahlbeck, Kristian

    2011-12-01

    The use of evidence is critical in guiding decision-making, but evidence from effect studies will be only one of a number of factors that will need to be taken into account in the decision-making processes. Equally important for policymakers will be the use of different types of evidence including implementation essentials and other decision-making principles such as social justice, political, ethical, equity issues, reflecting public attitudes and the level of resources available, rather than be based on health outcomes alone. This paper, aimed to support decision-makers, highlights the importance of commissioning high-quality evaluations, the key aspects to assess levels of evidence, the importance of supporting evidence-based implementation and what to look out for before, during and after implementation of mental health promotion and mental disorder prevention programmes.

  16. LOGICAL-MATHEMATICAL ANALYTICS THE EXISTENTIAL NATURE OF DECISION-MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Sergeevich Emelyanov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to an extensive and rather modern scientific area – Decision-making theory. The author uses logical-mathematical bases of Decision-making theory to make an explication of the existential features of the choice, which is based on four main martingales: trend, time, men and phobia. The last four constituents “have power” above human-being and impress the situation of decision-making. The impression on such situation allow to minimize a risk, to predict results and to create a strategy with positive result.

  17. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  18. Syndromic Panel-Based Testing in Clinical Microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanan, Poornima; Bryson, Alexandra L; Binnicker, Matthew J; Pritt, Bobbi S; Patel, Robin

    2018-01-01

    The recent development of commercial panel-based molecular diagnostics for the rapid detection of pathogens in positive blood culture bottles, respiratory specimens, stool, and cerebrospinal fluid has resulted in a paradigm shift in clinical microbiology and clinical practice. This review focuses on U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved/cleared multiplex molecular panels with more than five targets designed to assist in the diagnosis of bloodstream, respiratory tract, gastrointestinal, or central nervous system infections. While these panel-based assays have the clear advantages of a rapid turnaround time and the detection of a large number of microorganisms and promise to improve health care, they present certain challenges, including cost and the definition of ideal test utilization strategies (i.e., optimal ordering) and test interpretation. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  19. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials — The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-01

    and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a “holy grail” for informing risk management...

  20. The angular gyrus and visuospatial attention in decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Bettina; Cen, Danlu; Walsh, Vincent

    2014-12-01

    Recent neuroimaging studies on decision-making under risk indicate that the angular gyrus (AG) is sensitive to the probability and variance of outcomes during choice. A separate body of research has established the AG as a key area in visual attention. The current study used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in healthy volunteers to test whether the causal contribution of the AG to decision-making is independent of or linked to the guidance of visuospatial attention. A within-subject design compared decision making on a laboratory gambling task under three conditions: following rTMS to the AG, following rTMS to the premotor cortex (PMC, as an active control condition) and without TMS. The task presented two different trial types, 'visual' and 'auditory' trials, which entailed a high versus minimal demand for visuospatial attention, respectively. Our results showed a systematic effect of rTMS to the AG upon decision-making behavior in visual trials. Without TMS and following rTMS to the control region, decision latencies reflected the odds of winning; this relationship was disrupted by rTMS to the AG. In contrast, no significant effects of rTMS to the AG (or to the PMC) upon choice behavior in auditory trials were found. Thus, rTMS to the AG affected decision-making only in the task condition requiring visuospatial attention. The current findings suggest that the AG contributes to decision-making by guiding attention to relevant information about reward and punishment in the visual environment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  1. Global and Long-Distance Decision-Making, Environmental Issues and Network Potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelson, K.; And Others

    FID/TM, an international group concerned with theory and methods of systems cybernetics and information networks, held a panel session at the 34th Annual American Society for Information Science (ASIS) Meeting in November 1971. This report contains the seven papers presented by that panel, concerning issues in global decision-making and the role…

  2. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bond Lyndal

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding of the differences between immunisers' and non-immunisers' health beliefs and behaviours. Methods In a qualitative study we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with 45 Australian parents exploring their experiences and perceptions of disease severity and susceptibility. Using scenarios about 'a new strain of flu' we explored how risk information was interpreted. Results We found that concepts of dread, unfamiliarity, and uncontrollability from the subjective perception of risk and ambiguity, optimistic control and omission bias from explanatory theories of decision-making under uncertainty were useful in understanding why immunisers, incomplete immunisers and non-immunisers interpreted severity and susceptibility to diseases and vaccine risk differently. Immunisers dreaded unfamiliar diseases whilst non-immunisers dreaded unknown, long term side effects of vaccines. Participants believed that the risks of diseases and complications from diseases are not equally spread throughout the community, therefore, when listening to reports of epidemics, it is not the number of people who are affected but the familiarity or unfamiliarity of the disease and the characteristics of those who have had the disease that prompts them to take preventive action. Almost all believed they themselves would not be at serious risk of the 'new strain of flu' but were less willing to take risks with their children's health. Conclusion This study has found that health messages

  3. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Lyndal; Nolan, Terry

    2011-12-20

    Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding of the differences between immunisers' and non-immunisers' health beliefs and behaviours. In a qualitative study we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with 45 Australian parents exploring their experiences and perceptions of disease severity and susceptibility. Using scenarios about 'a new strain of flu' we explored how risk information was interpreted. We found that concepts of dread, unfamiliarity, and uncontrollability from the subjective perception of risk and ambiguity, optimistic control and omission bias from explanatory theories of decision-making under uncertainty were useful in understanding why immunisers, incomplete immunisers and non-immunisers interpreted severity and susceptibility to diseases and vaccine risk differently. Immunisers dreaded unfamiliar diseases whilst non-immunisers dreaded unknown, long term side effects of vaccines. Participants believed that the risks of diseases and complications from diseases are not equally spread throughout the community, therefore, when listening to reports of epidemics, it is not the number of people who are affected but the familiarity or unfamiliarity of the disease and the characteristics of those who have had the disease that prompts them to take preventive action. Almost all believed they themselves would not be at serious risk of the 'new strain of flu' but were less willing to take risks with their children's health. This study has found that health messages about the risks of disease which are communicated as though there

  4. EFSA CONTAM Panel (EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain), 2015. Scientific Opinion on the risks to animal and public health and the environment related to the presence of nickel in feed

    OpenAIRE

    Petersen, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Following a request from the European Commission, the risks to animal and human health and the environment related to the presence of nickel (Ni) in feed were assessed by the EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM Panel). The presence of Ni in feed can arise from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Additionally, certain feed materials contain metallic Ni, since it is used as a catalyst in their production. Based on the differences observed between the Ni exposure levels esti...

  5. Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA): evaluation of a decision-making framework for fetal heart monitoring of low-risk women

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Research-informed fetal monitoring guidelines recommend intermittent auscultation (IA) for fetal heart monitoring for low-risk women. However, the use of cardiotocography (CTG) continues to dominate many institutional maternity settings. Methods A mixed methods intervention study with before and after measurement was undertaken in one secondary level health service to facilitate the implementation of an initiative to encourage the use of IA. The intervention initiative was a decision-making framework called Intelligent Structured Intermittent Auscultation (ISIA) introduced through an education session. Results Following the intervention, medical records review revealed an increase in the use of IA during labour represented by a relative change of 12%, with improved documentation of clinical findings from assessments, and a significant reduction in the risk of receiving an admission CTG (RR 0.75, 95% CI, 0.60 – 0.95, p = 0.016). Conclusion The ISIA informed decision-making framework transformed the practice of IA and provided a mechanism for knowledge translation that enabled midwives to implement evidence-based fetal heart monitoring for low risk women. PMID:24884597

  6. Conversion Timing of Seafarer’s Decision-making for Unmanned Ship Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruolan Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to construct an unmanned ship swarms monitoring model to improve autonomous decision-making efficiency and safety performance of unmanned ship navigation. A framework is proposed to determine the relationship between on-board decision-making and shore side monitoring, the process of ship data detection, tracking, analysis and loss, and the application of decision-making algorithm, to discuss the different risk responses of specific unmanned ship types under various latent hazard environments, particularly in terms of precise conversion timing in switching over to remote control and full manual monitoring, to ensure safe navigation when the capability of automatic risk response inadequate. This frame-work makes it easier to train data and the adjustment for machine learning based on Bayesian risk prediction. It can be concluded that the automation level can be increased and the workload of shore-based seafarers can be reduced easily.

  7. Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

    2015-01-01

    For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

  8. Impact of childhood trauma and cognitive emotion regulation strategies on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huh, Hyu Jung; Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, Jae-Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Chae, Jeong-Ho

    2016-11-01

    Although poor decision-making ultimately impairs quality of life in depression, few studies describe the clinical characteristics of patients suffering from dysfunctional decision-making. This study aims to delineate the effect of childhood trauma and other personality factors on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression. A total of 50 depressive patients completed surveys for the measurement of sociodemographic factors, trauma loads and other clinical characteristics, including depression, anxiety, and strategies for emotion regulation. Risk aversion and loss aversion were quantified using probability discounting task and a 50:50 gamble on monetary decision-making task under specified risks. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the factors, predicting risk aversion or loss aversion in depression. Childhood trauma was the most prominent factor predicting loss aversion in patients with depressive disorders. Overall maladaptive emotion regulation strategies were associated with risk aversion. Childhood trauma and specific strategies of emotion regulation contribute to risk or loss aversion in patients with depression. These findings may provide useful insight into elaborative evaluation and interventions to improve decision-making and quality of life in patients with depression.

  9. The Best Path Analysis in Military Highway Transport Based on DEA and Multiobjective Fuzzy Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Juan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military transport path selection directly affects the transport speed, efficiency, and safety. To a certain degree, the results of the path selection determine success or failure of the war situation. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model based on DEA (data envelopment analysis and multiobjective fuzzy decision-making for path selection. The path decision set is established according to a search algorithm based on overlapping section punishment. Considering the influence of various fuzzy factors, the model of optimal path is constructed based on DEA and multitarget fuzzy decision-making theory, where travel time, transport risk, quick response capability, and transport cost constitute the evaluation target set. A reasonable path set can be calculated and sorted according to the comprehensive scores of the paths. The numerical results show that the model and the related algorithms are effective for path selection of military transport.

  10. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Rozental, J.J.; Tranjan Filho, A.

    2001-01-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of 137 CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10 3 m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10 3 m 3 of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10 5 m 2 . The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The problem of a fixed, or near

  11. Disclosure and rationality: comparative risk information and decision-making about prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Peter H

    2009-01-01

    With the growing focus on prevention in medicine, studies of how to describe risk have become increasing important. Recently, some researchers have argued against giving patients "comparative risk information," such as data about whether their baseline risk of developing a particular disease is above or below average. The concern is that giving patients this information will interfere with their consideration of more relevant data, such as the specific chance of getting the disease (the "personal risk"), the risk reduction the treatment provides, and any possible side effects. I explore this view and the theories of rationality that ground it, and I argue instead that comparative risk information can play a positive role in decision-making. The criticism of disclosing this sort of information to patients, I conclude, rests on a mistakenly narrow account of the goals of prevention and the nature of rational choice in medicine.

  12. Trait mindfulness helps shield decision-making from translating into health-risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, David S; Sussman, Steve; Johnson, C Anderson; Milam, Joel

    2012-12-01

    The cognitive tendency toward mindfulness may influence the enactment of health and risk behaviors by its bringing increased attention to and awareness of decision-making processes underlying behavior. The present study examined the moderating effect of trait mindfulness on associations between intentions to smoke (ITS)/smoking refusal self-efficacy (SRSE) and smoking frequency. Self-reports from Chinese adolescents (N = 5,287; mean age = 16.2 years, standard deviation = .7; 48.8% female) were collected in 24 schools. Smoking frequency was regressed on latent factor interactions Mindful Attention Awareness Scale*ITS and Mindful Attention Awareness Scale*SRSE, adjusting for school clustering effects and covariates. Both interaction terms were significant in cross-sectional analyses and showed that high ITS predicted higher smoking frequency among those low, relative to high, in trait mindfulness, whereas low SRSE predicted higher smoking frequency among those low, relative to high, in trait mindfulness. Findings suggest trait mindfulness possibly shields against decision-making processes that place adolescents at risk for smoking. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  14. An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

  15. Data-Based Decision-Making: Developing a Method for Capturing Teachers' Understanding of CBM Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espin, Christine A.; Wayman, Miya Miura; Deno, Stanley L.; McMaster, Kristen L.; de Rooij, Mark

    2017-01-01

    In this special issue, we explore the decision-making aspect of "data-based decision-making". The articles in the issue address a wide range of research questions, designs, methods, and analyses, but all focus on data-based decision-making for students with learning difficulties. In this first article, we introduce the topic of…

  16. Opioid Modulation of Value-Based Decision-Making in Healthy Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eikemo, Marie; Biele, Guido; Willoch, Frode; Thomsen, Lotte; Leknes, Siri

    2017-08-01

    Modifying behavior to maximize reward is integral to adaptive decision-making. In rodents, the μ-opioid receptor (MOR) system encodes motivation and preference for high-value rewards. Yet it remains unclear whether and how human MORs contribute to value-based decision-making. We reasoned that if the human MOR system modulates value-based choice, this would be reflected by opposite effects of agonist and antagonist drugs. In a double-blind pharmacological cross-over study, 30 healthy men received morphine (10 mg), placebo, and the opioid antagonist naltrexone (50 mg). They completed a two-alternative decision-making task known to induce a considerable bias towards the most frequently rewarded response option. To quantify MOR involvement in this bias, we fitted accuracy and reaction time data with the drift-diffusion model (DDM) of decision-making. The DDM analysis revealed the expected bidirectional drug effects for two decision subprocesses. MOR stimulation with morphine increased the preference for the stimulus with high-reward probability (shift in starting point). Compared to placebo, morphine also increased, and naltrexone reduced, the efficiency of evidence accumulation. Since neither drug affected motor-coordination, speed-accuracy trade-off, or subjective state (indeed participants were still blinded after the third session), we interpret the MOR effects on evidence accumulation efficiency as a consequence of changes in effort exerted in the task. Together, these findings support a role for the human MOR system in value-based choice by tuning decision-making towards high-value rewards across stimulus domains.

  17. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A novel dual-marker expression panel for easy and accurate risk stratification of patients with gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Mitsuro; Murotani, Kenta; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Miwa, Takashi; Umeda, Shinichi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Hattori, Norifumi; Suenaga, Masaya; Yamada, Suguru; Nakayama, Goro; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2018-05-07

    Development of specific biomarkers is necessary for individualized management of patients with gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to design a simple expression panel comprising novel molecular markers for precise risk stratification. Patients (n = 200) who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer were randomly assigned into learning and validation sets. Tissue mRNA expression levels of 15 candidate molecular markers were determined using quantitative PCR analysis. A dual-marker expression panel was created according to concordance index (C-index) values of overall survival for all 105 combinations of two markers in the learning set. The reproducibility and clinical significance of the dual-marker expression panel were evaluated in the validation set. The patient characteristics of the learning and validation sets were well balanced. The C-index values of combinations were significantly higher compared with those of single markers. The panel with the highest C-index (0.718) of the learning set comprised SYT8 and MAGED2, which clearly stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. The reproducibility of the panel was demonstrated in the validation set. High expression scores were significantly associated with larger tumor size, vascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, peritoneal metastasis, and advanced disease. The dual-marker expression panel provides a simple tool that clearly stratifies patients with gastric cancer into low-, intermediate-, and high risk after gastrectomy. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Provincial prenatal record revision: a multiple case study of evidence-based decision-making at the population-policy level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olson Joanne

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a significant gap in the knowledge translation literature related to how research evidence actually contributes to health care decision-making. Decisions around what care to provide at the population (rather than individual level are particularly complex, involving considerations such as feasibility, cost, and population needs in addition to scientific evidence. One example of decision-making at this "population-policy" level involves what screening questions and intervention guides to include on standardized provincial prenatal records. As mandatory medical reporting forms, prenatal records are potentially powerful vehicles for promoting population-wide evidence-based care. However, the extent to which Canadian prenatal records reflect best-practice recommendations for the assessment of well-known risk factors such as maternal smoking and alcohol consumption varies markedly across Canadian provinces and territories. The goal of this study is to better understand the interaction of contextual factors and research evidence on decision-making at the population-policy level, by examining the processes by which provincial prenatal records are reviewed and revised. Methods Guided by Dobrow et al.'s (2004 conceptual model for context-based evidence-based decision-making, this study will use a multiple case study design with embedded units of analysis to examine contextual factors influencing the prenatal record revision process in different Canadian provinces and territories. Data will be collected using multiple methods to construct detailed case descriptions for each province/territory. Using qualitative data analysis techniques, decision-making processes involving prenatal record content specifically related to maternal smoking and alcohol use will be compared both within and across each case, to identify key contextual factors influencing the uptake and application of research evidence by prenatal record review

  20. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  1. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  2. Depression and Anxiety During Pregnancy: Evaluating the Literature in Support of Clinical Risk-Benefit Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalke, Katharine Baratz; Wenzel, Amy; Kim, Deborah R

    2016-06-01

    Depression and anxiety during pregnancy are common, and patients and providers are faced with complex decisions regarding various treatment modalities. A structured discussion of the risks and benefits of options with the patient and her support team is recommended to facilitate the decision-making process. This clinically focused review, with emphasis on the last 3 years of published study data, evaluates the major risk categories of medication treatments, namely pregnancy loss, physical malformations, growth impairment, behavioral teratogenicity, and neonatal toxicity. Nonpharmacological treatment options, including neuromodulation and psychotherapy, are also briefly reviewed. Specific recommendations, drawn from the literature and the authors' clinical experience, are also offered to help guide the clinician in decision-making.

  3. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschoa, A.S. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Rozental, J.J. [Ministry of Environment (Israel); Tranjan Filho, A. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) (Brazil)

    2001-07-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of {sup 137}CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10{sup 3} m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10{sup 3} m{sup 3} of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10{sup 5} m{sup 2}. The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The

  4. Monitoring of human brain functions in risk decision-making task by diffuse optical tomography using voxel-wise general linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Marry; Liu, Hanli

    2013-03-01

    Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive imaging technique which measures the hemodynamic changes that reflect the brain activity. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT), a variant of fNIRS with multi-channel NIRS measurements, has demonstrated capability of three dimensional (3D) reconstructions of hemodynamic changes due to the brain activity. Conventional method of DOT image analysis to define the brain activation is based upon the paired t-test between two different states, such as resting-state versus task-state. However, it has limitation because the selection of activation and post-activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM) based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with the risk-decision making process. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The balloon analogue risk task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used in behavioral measures to assess human risk taking action and tendency while facing risks. We have utilized the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making. Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed on 18human participants (10 males and 8females).In this work, we wish to demonstrate the feasibility of using voxel-wise GLM analysis to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision making by DOT. Results have shown significant changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active choice mode and a different hemodynamic pattern between genders, which are in good agreements with published literatures in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies.

  5. Decision-Making Based on Emotional Images

    OpenAIRE

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  6. Developing a HACCP-like system for improving animal health and welfare in organic egg production - based on an expert panel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegelund, L; Sørensen, J T

    2007-08-01

    In the process of developing a generic Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP)-like system for securing animal health and welfare in organic egg production, an expert panel analysis was used to perform the initial hazard analysis. Eighteen advisers and researchers in organic egg production were included in the expert panel. In a series of four questionnaires, the expert panel first scored 34 health and welfare problems seen in Danish organic egg production. Based on scorings of severity and occurrence, 10 problems were selected for further analysis. The experts subsequently suggested and scored risk factors for those problems and finally suggested control points, alarm values indicating the need for corrective actions in order to control the risk factors and monitoring frequencies of these. The 10 selected problems were hunger, thirst, piling, crop impaction, blackhead, pasteurellosis, bone fractures, cannibalism, predators and red mites. A total of 154 different risk factors were suggested for these problems. The 41 risk factors which rated highest in a combined scoring of importance and occurrence were selected for further analysis. There was a high degree of consensus between experts when scoring both problems and risk factors. The level of consensus, as defined by an interquartile range 1, was 79% to 100% when scoring the health and welfare problems (scale 1-5) and 77% to 95% when scoring the risk factors (scale 1-4). On average, 5.8 control points were suggested for every risk factor. Alarm values were often not detailed enough to be of practical significance and further analysis is needed in order to define these. The experts were highly diverse in their suggested monitoring frequencies and establishment of monitoring schemes should be part of developing the farm specific systems. An expert panel analysis based on questionnaires was a useful tool during the first steps of developing a HACCP plan, conducting a hazard analysis and suggesting control

  7. A Probabilistic Alternative Approach to Optimal Project Profitability Based on the Value-at-Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggu Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on an investment decision-making process for sustainable development based on the profitability impact factors for overseas projects. Investors prefer to use the discounted cash-flow method. Although this method is simple and straightforward, its critical weakness is its inability to reflect the factor volatility associated with the project evaluation. To overcome this weakness, the Value-at-Risk method is used to apply the volatility of the profitability impact factors, thereby reflecting the risks and establishing decision-making criteria for risk-averse investors. Risk-averse investors can lose relatively acceptable investment opportunities to risk-neutral or risk-amenable investors due to strict investment decision-making criteria. To overcome this problem, critical factors are selected through a Monte Carlo simulation and a sensitivity analysis, and solutions to the critical-factor problems are then found by using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and a business version of the Project Definition Rating Index. This study examines the process of recovering investment opportunities with projects that are investment feasible and that have been rejected when applying the criterion of the Value-at-Risk method. To do this, a probabilistic alternative approach is taken. To validate this methodology, the proposed framework for an improved decision-making process is demonstrated using two actual overseas projects of a Korean steel-making company.

  8. Value-based attentional capture influences context-dependent decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Kexin; Rangsipat, Napat; Serences, John T.

    2015-01-01

    Normative theories posit that value-based decision-making is context independent. However, decisions between two high-value options can be suboptimally biased by the introduction of a third low-value option. This context-dependent modulation is consistent with the divisive normalization of the value of each stimulus by the total value of all stimuli. In addition, an independent line of research demonstrates that pairing a stimulus with a high-value outcome can lead to attentional capture that can mediate the efficiency of visual information processing. Here we tested the hypothesis that value-based attentional capture interacts with value-based normalization to influence the optimality of decision-making. We used a binary-choice paradigm in which observers selected between two targets and the color of each target indicated the magnitude of their reward potential. Observers also had to simultaneously ignore a task-irrelevant distractor rendered in a color that was previously associated with a specific reward magnitude. When the color of the task-irrelevant distractor was previously associated with a high reward, observers responded more slowly and less optimally. Moreover, as the learned value of the distractor increased, electrophysiological data revealed an attenuation of the lateralized N1 and N2Pc responses evoked by the relevant choice stimuli and an attenuation of the late positive deflection (LPD). Collectively, these behavioral and electrophysiological data suggest that value-based attentional capture and value-based normalization jointly mediate the influence of context on free-choice decision-making. PMID:25995350

  9. Risking your life without a second thought: intuitive decision-making and extreme altruism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Rand

    Full Text Available When faced with the chance to help someone in mortal danger, what is our first response? Do we leap into action, only later considering the risks to ourselves? Or must instinctive self-preservation be overcome by will-power in order to act? We investigate this question by examining the testimony of Carnegie Hero Medal Recipients (CHMRs, extreme altruists who risked their lives to save others. We collected published interviews with CHMRs where they described their decisions to help. We then had participants rate the intuitiveness versus deliberativeness of the decision-making process described in each CHMR statement. The statements were judged to be overwhelmingly dominated by intuition; to be significantly more intuitive than a set of control statements describing deliberative decision-making; and to not differ significantly from a set of intuitive control statements. This remained true when restricting to scenarios in which the CHMRs had sufficient time to reflect before acting if they had so chosen. Text-analysis software found similar results. These findings suggest that high-stakes extreme altruism may be largely motivated by automatic, intuitive processes.

  10. Evaluation of sustainable supply chain risk management using an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS- CRITIC approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostamzadeh, Reza; Ghorabaee, Mehdi Keshavarz; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    Supply chain risk management research has mainly mistreated the important of sustainability issues. Moreover, there is little knowledge about sustainable management of risk and supply chain and the way they impose losses for firms. Risk management's duty in the supply chain is to identify, analyze......, and provide solutions for accountability, control and monitor the risks in the economic and production cycle. This study aims to develop a framework for the sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) evaluation. To this end, an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed...... based on the technique in order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. The literature was reviewed and the potential criteria were identified. Through an expert panel the criteria were filtered. Seven main...

  11. Advanced conversion technology review panel report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazier, T.A.

    1998-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) established a DOE lead management team and an Advanced Conversion Technology Review Panel. The panel was tasked with providing the management team with an assessment and ranking of the three advanced conversion technologies. The three advanced conversion technologies were alkali metal thermal to electric converter (AMTEC), Stirling engine converter (SEC), and thermophotovoltaic (TPV). To rate and rank these three technologies, five criteria were developed: (1) Performance, (2) Development and Cost/Production and Cost/Schedule Risk, (3) Spacecraft Interface and Operations, (4) Ability to Scale Conversion, and (5) Safety. Discussed are the relative importance of each of these criteria and the rankings of the three advanced conversion technologies. It was the conclusion of the panel that the technology decision should be based on the risk that DOE and NASA are willing to accept. SEC is the most mature technology and would provide the lowest risk option. However, if more risk is acceptable, AMTEC not only provides benefits in the spacecraft interface but is also predicted to outperform the SEC. It was proposed that if AMTEC were selected, funding should be provided at a reasonable level to support back-up technology to be developed in a parallel fashion until AMTEC has proven its capability. The panel report and conclusion were provided to DOE in February 1997

  12. Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Decision-Theoretic Planning Based on MDP and One-Switch Utility Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zeng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In high stakes situations decision-makers are often risk-averse and decision-making processes often take place in group settings. This paper studies multiagent decision-theoretic planning under Markov decision processes (MDPs framework with considering the change of agent’s risk attitude as his wealth level varies. Based on one-switch utility function that describes agent’s risk attitude change with his wealth level, we give the additive and multiplicative aggregation models of group utility and adopt maximizing expected group utility as planning objective. When the wealth level approaches infinity, the characteristics of optimal policy are analyzed for the additive and multiplicative aggregation model, respectively. Then a backward-induction method is proposed to divide the wealth level interval from negative infinity to initial wealth level into subintervals and determine the optimal policy in states and subintervals. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples and the influences of agent’s risk aversion parameters and weights on group decision-making are also analyzed.

  13. Mode system effects in an online panel study : Comparing a probability-based online panel with two face-to-face reference surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struminskaya, Bella; de Leeuw, E.D.; Kaczmirek, Lars

    2015-01-01

    One of the methods for evaluating online panels in terms of data quality is comparing the estimates that the panels provide with benchmark sources. For probability-based online panels, high-quality surveys or government statistics can be used as references. If differences among the benchmark and the

  14. Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key problems in the field of decision-making have been considered. The authors' aim was to indicate the extremely important for management role of logic and risk in relation to decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. In the course of the research, the following hypothesis was tested: the complexity of risk is determined by the diversity of reality. The result of this is that in science there is no current study developing a uniform methodology for the assessment of risk. It might even be doubtful whether it can be created. In a certain sense, this is indicated in the article by the discussion about the dimensions of logic and risk apparent in any decisions taken by a man. The paper presents the complexity and diversity of risk assessment on the basis of selected, but essential to the discussed issue, fields of knowledge. This is valid when the numerical or qualitative level of risk is substantial in the context of the analyzed problem. (original abstract

  15. Risk Management Post-Marketing Surveillance for the Abuse of Medications Acting on the Central Nervous System: Expert Panel Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanson, Chris-Ellyn; Balster, Robert L.; Henningfield, Jack E.; Schuster, Charles R.; Anthony, James C.; Barthwell, Andrea G.; Coleman, John J.; Dart, Richard C.; Gorodetzky, Charles W.; O’Keeffe, Charles; Sellers, Edward M.; Vocci, Frank; Walsh, Sharon L.

    2010-01-01

    The abuse and diversion of medications is a significant public health problem. This paper is part of a supplemental issue of Drug and Alcohol Dependence focused on the development of risk management plans and post-marketing surveillance related to minimizing this problem. The issue is based on a conference that was held in October, 2008. An Expert Panel was formed to provide a summary of the conclusions and recommendations that emerged from the meeting involving drug abuse experts, regulators and other government agencies, pharmaceutical companies and professional and other non-governmental organizations. This paper provides a written report of this Expert Panel. Eleven conclusions and eleven recommendations emerged concerning the state of the art of this field of research, the regulatory and public health implications and recommendations for future directions. It is concluded that special surveillance tools are needed to detect the emergence of medication abuse in a timely manner and that risk management tools can be implemented to increase the benefit to risk ratio. The scientific basis for both the surveillance and risk management tools is in its infancy, yet progress needs to be made. It is also important that the unintended consequences of increased regulation and the imposition of risk management plans be minimized. PMID:19783383

  16. Value-based attentional capture influences context-dependent decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Cha, Kexin; Rangsipat, Napat; Serences, John T

    2015-07-01

    Normative theories posit that value-based decision-making is context independent. However, decisions between two high-value options can be suboptimally biased by the introduction of a third low-value option. This context-dependent modulation is consistent with the divisive normalization of the value of each stimulus by the total value of all stimuli. In addition, an independent line of research demonstrates that pairing a stimulus with a high-value outcome can lead to attentional capture that can mediate the efficiency of visual information processing. Here we tested the hypothesis that value-based attentional capture interacts with value-based normalization to influence the optimality of decision-making. We used a binary-choice paradigm in which observers selected between two targets and the color of each target indicated the magnitude of their reward potential. Observers also had to simultaneously ignore a task-irrelevant distractor rendered in a color that was previously associated with a specific reward magnitude. When the color of the task-irrelevant distractor was previously associated with a high reward, observers responded more slowly and less optimally. Moreover, as the learned value of the distractor increased, electrophysiological data revealed an attenuation of the lateralized N1 and N2Pc responses evoked by the relevant choice stimuli and an attenuation of the late positive deflection (LPD). Collectively, these behavioral and electrophysiological data suggest that value-based attentional capture and value-based normalization jointly mediate the influence of context on free-choice decision-making. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  17. Mapping Perceptions of Lupus Medication Decision-Making Facilitators: The Importance of Patient Context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Haiyan; Shewchuk, Richard M; Alarcón, Graciela; Fraenkel, Liana; Leong, Amye; Dall'Era, Maria; Yazdany, Jinoos; Singh, Jasvinder A

    2016-12-01

    Numerous factors can impede or facilitate patients' medication decision-making and adherence to physicians' recommendations. Little is known about how patients and physicians jointly view issues that affect the decision-making process. Our objective was to derive an empirical framework of patient-identified facilitators to lupus medication decision-making from key stakeholders (including 15 physicians, 5 patients/patient advocates, and 8 medical professionals) using a patient-centered cognitive mapping approach. We used nominal group patient panels to identify facilitators to lupus treatment decision-making. Stakeholders independently sorted the identified facilitators (n = 98) based on their similarities and rated the importance of each facilitator in patient decision-making. Data were analyzed using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis. A cognitive map was derived that represents an empirical framework of facilitators for lupus treatment decisions from multiple stakeholders' perspectives. The facilitator clusters were 1) hope for a normal/healthy life, 2) understand benefits and effectiveness of taking medications, 3) desire to minimize side effects, 4) medication-related data, 5) medication effectiveness for "me," 6) family focus, 7) confidence in physician, 8) medication research, 9) reassurance about medication, and 10) medication economics. Consideration of how different stakeholders perceive the relative importance of lupus medication decision-making clusters is an important step toward improving patient-physician communication and effective shared decision-making. The empirically derived framework of medication decision-making facilitators can be used as a guide to develop a lupus decision aid that focuses on improving physician-patient communication. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  18. Different roads to the same destination - The impact of impulsivity on decision-making processes under risk within a rewarding context in a healthy male sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinu-Biringer, Ramona; Nees, Frauke; Falquez, Rosalux; Berger, Moritz; Barnow, Sven

    2016-02-28

    The results of research about the influences of impulsivity on decision-making in situations of risk have been inconsistent. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural correlates of decision-making under risk in 12 impulsive, as defined by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and 13 normal men. Although both groups showed similar decision-making behavior, neural activation regarding decision-making processes differed significantly. Impulsive persons revealed stronger activation in the (ventro-) medial prefrontal cortex and less deactivation of the orbitofrontal cortex while playing for potential gains. These brain regions might be associated with the emotional components of decision-making processes. Significant differences in brain areas linked to cognitive decision-making components were not found. This activation pattern might be seen as an indication for a hypersensitivity to rewarding cues in impulsive persons and might be linked to the propensity for inappropriate risk-taking behavior in persons with more extreme impulsivity levels, especially in situations in which they have a strong emotional involvement in the decision process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The RISAP-study: a complex intervention in risk communication and shared decision-making in general practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Pia; Edwards, Adrian G K; Hansen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    decision satisfaction (Provider Decision Process Assessment Instrument). The patients will receive a questionnaire at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. It includes questions about adherence to chosen treatment (Morisky Compliance Scale), self-rated health (SF-12), enablement (Patient Enablement Instrument...... training are needed. Aim:1) to systematically develop, describe and evaluate a complex intervention comprising a training programme for GPs in risk communication and shared decision-making, 2) to evaluate the effect of the training programme on real-life consultations between GPs and patients with high......), and risk communication and decision-making effectiveness (COMRADE Scale). Prescriptions, contacts to the health services, and cholesterol level will be drawn from the registers.In each group, 12 consultations will be observed and tape-recorded. The patients from these 24 consultations will be interviewed...

  20. Apathy and Emotion-Based Decision-Making in Amnesic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Bayard, Sophie; Jacus, Jean-Pierre; Raffard, Stéphane; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine

    2014-01-01

    Background. Apathy and reduced emotion-based decision-making are two behavioral modifications independently described in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). Objectives. The aims of this study were to investigate decision-making based on emotional feedback processing in AD and aMCI and to study the impact of reduced decision-making performances on apathy. Methods. We recruited 20 patients with AD, 20 participants with aMCI, and 20 healthy controls. All parti...

  1. EFSA NDA Panel (EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies), 2014. Scientific Opinion on health benefits of seafood (fish and shellfish) consumption in relation to health risks associated with exposure to methylmercury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tetens, Inge

    2014-01-01

    Following a request from the European Commission to address the risks and benefits as regards fish/seafood consumption related to relevant beneficial substances (e.g. nutrients such as n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids) and the contaminant methylmercury, the Panel on Dietetic Products...... effects of seafood consumption in relation to health outcomes and population subgroups that have been identified by the FAO/WHO Joint Expert Consultation on the Risks and Benefits of Fish Consumption and/or the EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the context of a risk assessment related to the presence...... of mercury and methylmercury in food as relevant for the assessment. These included the effects of seafood consumption during pregnancy on functional outcomes of children’s neurodevelopment and the effects of seafood consumption on cardiovascular disease risk in adults. The Panel concluded that consumption...

  2. Variation in clinical decision-making for induction of labour: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nippita, Tanya A; Porter, Maree; Seeho, Sean K; Morris, Jonathan M; Roberts, Christine L

    2017-09-22

    Unexplained variation in induction of labour (IOL) rates exist between hospitals, even after accounting for casemix and hospital differences. We aimed to explore factors that influence clinical decision-making for IOL that may be contributing to the variation in IOL rates between hospitals. We undertook a qualitative study involving semi-structured, audio-recorded interviews with obstetricians and midwives. Using purposive sampling, participants known to have diverse opinions on IOL were selected from ten Australian maternity hospitals (based on differences in hospital IOL rate, size, location and case-mix complexities). Transcripts were indexed, coded, and analysed using the Framework Approach to identify main themes and subthemes. Forty-five participants were interviewed (21 midwives, 24 obstetric medical staff). Variations in decision-making for IOL were based on the obstetrician's perception of medical risk in the pregnancy (influenced by the obstetrician's personality and knowledge), their care relationship with the woman, how they involved the woman in decision-making, and resource availability. The role of a 'gatekeeper' in the procedural aspects of arranging an IOL also influenced decision-making. There was wide variation in the clinical decision-making practices of obstetricians and less accountability for decision-making in hospitals with a high IOL rate, with the converse occurring in hospitals with low IOL rates. Improved communication, standardised risk assessment and accountability for IOL offer potential for reducing variation in hospital IOL rates.

  3. Patients' Values in Clinical Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Pachur, Thorsten; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas

    2017-09-01

    Shared decision-making involves the participation of patient and dental practitioner. Well-informed decision-making requires that both parties understand important concepts that may influence the decision. This fourth article in a series of 4 aims to discuss the importance of patients' values when a clinical decision is made. We report on how to incorporate important concepts for well-informed, shared decision-making. Here, we present patient values as an important issue, in addition to previously established topics such as the risk of bias of a study, cost-effectiveness of treatment approaches, and a comparison of therapeutic benefit with potential side effects. We provide 2 clinical examples and suggestions for a decision tree, based on the available evidence. The information reported in this article may improve the relationship between patient and dental practitioner, resulting in more well-informed clinical decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Video-based training to improve perceptual-cognitive decision-making performance of Australian football umpires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Paul; Mesagno, Christopher; Berry, Jason; Spittle, Michael; Harvey, Jack

    2018-02-01

    Decision-making is a central component of the in-game performance of Australian football umpires; however, current umpire training focuses largely on physiological development with decision-making skills development conducted via explicit lecture-style meetings with limited practice devoted to making actual decisions. Therefore, this study investigated the efficacy of a video-based training programme, aimed to provide a greater amount of contextualised visual experiences without explicit instruction, to improve decision-making skills of umpires. Australian football umpires (n = 52) were recruited from metropolitan and regional Division 1 competitions. Participants were randomly assigned to an intervention or control group and classified according to previous umpire game experience (i.e., experienced; less experienced). The intervention group completed a 12-week video-based decision-making training programme, with decision-making performance assessed at pre-training, and 1-week retention and 3-week retention periods. The control group did not complete any video-based training. Results indicated a significant Group (intervention; Control) × Test interaction (F(1, 100) = 3.98; P = 0.02, partial ῆ 2  = 0.074), with follow-up pairwise comparisons indicating significant within-group differences over time for the intervention group. In addition, decision-making performance of the less experienced umpires in the intervention group significantly improved (F(2, 40) = 5.03, P = 0.01, partial ῆ 2  = 0.201). Thus, video-based training programmes may be a viable adjunct to current training programmes to hasten decision-making development, especially for less experienced umpires.

  5. Decision-Making in Audiology: Balancing Evidence-Based Practice and Patient-Centered Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemesha, Jennifer; Lundmark, Erik; Crome, Erica; Barr, Caitlin; McMahon, Catherine M.

    2017-01-01

    Health-care service delivery models have evolved from a practitioner-centered approach toward a patient-centered ideal. Concurrently, increasing emphasis has been placed on the use of empirical evidence in decision-making to increase clinical accountability. The way in which clinicians use empirical evidence and client preferences to inform decision-making provides an insight into health-care delivery models utilized in clinical practice. The present study aimed to investigate the sources of information audiologists use when discussing rehabilitation choices with clients, and discuss the findings within the context of evidence-based practice and patient-centered care. To assess the changes that may have occurred over time, this study uses a questionnaire based on one of the few studies of decision-making behavior in audiologists, published in 1989. The present questionnaire was completed by 96 audiologists who attended the World Congress of Audiology in 2014. The responses were analyzed using qualitative and quantitative approaches. Results suggest that audiologists rank clinical test results and client preferences as the most important factors for decision-making. Discussion with colleagues or experts was also frequently reported as an important source influencing decision-making. Approximately 20% of audiologists mentioned utilizing research evidence to inform decision-making when no clear solution was available. Information shared at conferences was ranked low in terms of importance and reliability. This study highlights an increase in awareness of concepts associated with evidence-based practice and patient-centered care within audiology settings, consistent with current research-to-practice dissemination pathways. It also highlights that these pathways may not be sufficient for an effective clinical implementation of these practices. PMID:28752808

  6. Nuclear power plant personnel errors in decision-making as an object of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reer, B.

    1993-09-01

    The integration of human error - also called man-machine system analysis (MMSA) - is an essential part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). A new method is presented which allows for a systematic and comprehensive PRA inclusions of decision-based errors due to conflicts or similarities. For the error identification procedure, new question techniques are developed. These errors are shown to be identified by looking at retroactions caused by subordinate goals as components of the overall safety relevant goal. New quantification methods for estimating situation-specific probabilities are developed. The factors conflict and similarity are operationalized in a way that allows their quantification based on informations which are usually available in PRA. The quantification procedure uses extrapolations and interpolations based on a poor set of data related to decision-based errors. Moreover, for passive errors in decision-making a completely new approach is presented where errors are quantified via a delay initiating the required action rather than via error probabilities. The practicability of this dynamic approach is demonstrated by a probabilistic analysis of the actions required during the total loss of feedwater event at the Davis-Besse plant 1985. The extensions of the ''classical'' PRA method developed in this work are applied to a MMSA of the decay heat removal (DHR) of the ''HTR-500''. Errors in decision-making - as potential roots of extraneous acts - are taken into account in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Five additional errors are identified. However, the probabilistic quantification results a nonsignificant increase of the DHR failure probability. (orig.) [de

  7. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  8. Lipid Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A routine cardiac risk assessment typically includes a fasting lipid panel. Beyond that, research continues into the usefulness of other non-traditional markers of cardiac risk, such as Lp-PLA 2 . A health practitioner may choose to evaluate one or more ...

  9. Rational Risk-Benefit Decision-Making in the Setting of Military Mefloquine Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevin, Remington L

    2015-01-01

    Mefloquine is an antimalarial drug that has been commonly used in military settings since its development by the US military in the late 1980s. Owing to the drug's neuropsychiatric contraindications and its high rate of inducing neuropsychiatric symptoms, which are contraindications to the drug's continued use, the routine prescribing of mefloquine in military settings may be problematic. Due to these considerations and to recent concerns of chronic and potentially permanent psychiatric and neurological sequelae arising from drug toxicity, military prescribing of mefloquine has recently decreased. In settings where mefloquine remains available, policies governing prescribing should reflect risk-benefit decision-making informed by the drug's perceived benefits and by consideration both of the risks identified in the drug's labeling and of specific military risks associated with its use. In this review, these risks are identified and recommendations are made for the rational prescribing of the drug in light of current evidence.

  10. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  11. Parental decision-making after ultrasound diagnosis of a serious foetal abnormality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijma, Hilmar H; Wildschut, Hajo I J; van der Heide, Agnes; Passchier, Jan; Wladimiroff, Juriy W; van der Maas, Paul J

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians who are involved in the field of foetal medicine with a comprehensive overview of theories that are relevant for the parental decision-making process after ultrasound diagnosis of a serious foetal abnormality. Since little data are available of parental decision-making after ultrasound diagnosis of foetal abnormality, we reviewed the literature on parental decision-making in genetic counselling of couples at increased genetic risk together with the literature on general decision-making theories. The findings were linked to the specific situation of parental decision-making after an ultrasound diagnosis of foetal abnormality. Based on genetic counselling studies, several cognitive mechanisms play a role in parental decision-making regarding future pregnancies. Parents often have a binary perception of risk. Probabilistic information is translated into two options: the child will or will not be affected. The graduality of chance seems to be of little importance in this process. Instead, the focus shifts to the possible consequences for future family life. General decision-making theories often focus on rationality and coherence of the decision-making process. However, studies of both the influence of framing and the influence of stress indicate that emotional mechanisms can have an important and beneficial function in the decision-making process. Cognitive mechanisms that are elicited by emotions and that are not necessarily rational can have an important and beneficial function in parental decision-making after ultrasound diagnosis of a foetal abnormality. Consequently, the process of parental decision-making should not solely be assessed on the basis of its rationality, but also on the basis of the parental emotional outcome. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes-Rovner Margaret

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Methods Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. Results When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes. The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% – 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. Conclusions In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the

  13. Risk management and post-marketing surveillance for the abuse of medications acting on the central nervous system: expert panel report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanson, Chris-Ellyn; Balster, Robert L; Henningfield, Jack E; Schuster, Charles R; Anthony, James C; Barthwell, Andrea G; Coleman, John J; Dart, Richard C; Gorodetzky, Charles W; O'Keeffe, Charles; Sellers, Edward M; Vocci, Frank; Walsh, Sharon L

    2009-12-01

    The abuse and diversion of medications is a significant public health problem. This paper is part of a supplemental issue of Drug and Alcohol Dependence focused on the development of risk management plans and post-marketing surveillance related to minimizing this problem. The issue is based on a conference that was held in October 2008. An Expert Panel was formed to provide a summary of the conclusions and recommendations that emerged from the meeting involving drug abuse experts, regulators and other government agencies, pharmaceutical companies and professional and other non-governmental organizations. This paper provides a written report of this Expert Panel. Eleven conclusions and 11 recommendations emerged concerning the state of the art of this field of research, the regulatory and public health implications and recommendations for future directions. It is concluded that special surveillance tools are needed to detect the emergence of medication abuse in a timely manner and that risk management tools can be implemented to increase the benefit to risk ratio. The scientific basis for both the surveillance and risk management tools is in its infancy, yet progress needs to be made. It is also important that the unintended consequences of increased regulation and the imposition of risk management plans be minimized.

  14. A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk

  15. Acute stress does not affect risky monetary decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Sokol-Hessner

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquitous and intense nature of stress responses necessitate that we understand how they affect decision-making. Despite a number of studies examining risky decision-making under stress, it is as yet unclear whether and in what way stress alters the underlying processes that shape our choices. This is in part because previous studies have not separated and quantified dissociable valuation and decision-making processes that can affect choices of risky options, including risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency, among others. Here, in a large, fully-crossed two-day within-subjects design, we examined how acute stress alters risky decision-making. On each day, 120 participants completed either the cold pressor test or a control manipulation with equal probability, followed by a risky decision-making task. Stress responses were assessed with salivary cortisol. We fit an econometric model to choices that dissociated risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency using hierarchical Bayesian techniques to both pool data and allow heterogeneity in decision-making. Acute stress was found to have no effect on risk attitudes, loss aversion, or choice consistency, though participants did become more loss averse and more consistent on the second day relative to the first. In the context of an inconsistent previous literature on risk and acute stress, our findings provide strong and specific evidence that acute stress does not affect risk attitudes, loss aversion, or consistency in risky monetary decision-making.

  16. EFSA CONTAM Panel (EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain), 2015. Scientific Opinion on the risks to public health related to the presence of nickel in food and drinking water

    OpenAIRE

    Petersen, Annette

    2015-01-01

    EFSA received a request from the Hellenic Food Authority (EFET) for a scientific opinion on the risk to human health from the presence of nickel (Ni) in food, particularly in vegetables. The EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM Panel) decided to extend the risk assessment also to drinking water. The reproductive and developmental toxicity in experimental animals was selected as the critical effect for the assessment of chronic effects of Ni. A tolerable daily intake of 2.8 µg ...

  17. Mathematical model for the power generation from arbitrarily oriented photovoltaic panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Qusay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a mathematical model for modelling the solar radiation components and photovoltaic arrays power outputs from arbitrarily oriented photovoltaic panel has been presented. Base on the model electrical power prediction of the photovoltaic system in realistic local condition has been presented and compared with experimental measurement. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model, which provides tools to better understand the performance and reliability as well as decision-making tool in designing of a hybrid renewable energy base power generation system. It has been shown that base on the model prediction, the efficiency and possible failures of the system can be found which are important from the technical and economical point of view.

  18. EFSA CONTAM Panel (EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain), 2015. Scientific Opinion on risks for public health related to the presence of chlorate in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Annette

    Following a request from the European Commission, the risks to human health related to the presence of chlorate in food were assessed by the EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM Panel). The presence of chlorate in food can arise from the use of chlorinated water for food processing...... and the disinfection of food-processing equipment. Inhibition of iodine uptake in humans was identified as the critical effect for chronic exposure to chlorate. A tolerable daily intake (TDI) of 3 µg chlorate/kg body weight (b.w.) was set by read-across from a TDI of 0.3 µg/kg b.w. derived for this effect...... with mild or moderate iodine deficiency. Mean and 95th percentile acute exposures were below the ARfD for all age groups indicating no concern. Based on the current practices in food industry, application of a hypothetical maximum residue limit (MRL) of 0.7 mg/kg for all foodstuffs and drinking water would...

  19. Gray matter volume and rapid decision-making in major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Masayuki; Matsuo, Koji; Nakashima, Mami; Matsubara, Toshio; Harada, Kenichiro; Egashira, Kazuteru; Masaki, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Kanji; Watanabe, Yoshifumi

    2014-01-03

    Reduced motivation and blunted decision-making are key features of major depressive disorder (MDD). Patients with MDD show abnormal decision-making when given negative feedback regarding a reward. The brain mechanisms underpinning this behavior remain unclear. In the present study, we examined the association between rapid decision-making with negative feedback and brain volume in MDD. Thirty-six patients with MDD and 54 age-, sex- and IQ-matched healthy subjects were studied. Subjects performed a rapid decision-making monetary task in which participants could make high- or low-risk choices. We compared between the 2 groups the probability that a high-risk choice followed negative feedback. In addition, we used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to compare between group differences in gray matter volume, and the correlation between the probability for high-risk choices and brain volume. Compared to the healthy group, the MDD group showed significantly lower probabilities for high-risk choices following negative feedback. VBM analysis revealed that the MDD group had less gray matter volume in the right medial prefrontal cortex and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) compared to the healthy group. The right OFC volume was negatively correlated with the probability that a high-risk choice followed negative feedback in patients with MDD. We did not observe these trends in healthy subjects. Patients with MDD show reduced motivation for monetary incentives when they were required to make rapid decisions following negative feedback. We observed a correlation between this reduced motivation and gray matter volume in the medial and ventral prefrontal cortex, which suggests that these brain regions are likely involved in the pathophysiology of aberrant decision-making in MDD. © 2013.

  20. A decade of marketing approval of gene and cell-based therapies in the United States, European Union and Japan: An evaluation of regulatory decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppens, D G M; de Wilde, S; Guchelaar, H J; De Bruin, M L; Leufkens, H G M; Meij, P; Hoekman, J

    2018-05-02

    There is a widely held expectation of clinical advance with the development of gene and cell-based therapies (GCTs). Yet, establishing benefits and risks is highly uncertain. We examine differences in decision-making for GCT approval between jurisdictions by comparing regulatory assessment procedures in the United States (US), European Union (EU) and Japan. A cohort of 18 assessment procedures was analyzed by comparing product characteristics, evidentiary and non-evidentiary factors considered for approval and post-marketing risk management. Product characteristics are very heterogeneous and only three products are marketed in multiple jurisdictions. Almost half of all approved GCTs received an orphan designation. Overall, confirmatory evidence or indications of clinical benefit were evident in US and EU applications, whereas in Japan approval was solely granted based on non-confirmatory evidence. Due to scientific uncertainties and safety risks, substantial post-marketing risk management activities were requested in the EU and Japan. EU and Japanese authorities often took unmet medical needs into consideration in decision-making for approval. These observations underline the effects of implemented legislation in these two jurisdictions that facilitate an adaptive approach to licensing. In the US, the recent assessments of two chimeric antigen receptor-T cell (CAR-T) products are suggestive of a trend toward a more permissive approach for GCT approval under recent reforms, in contrast to a more binary decision-making approach for previous approvals. It indicates that all three regulatory agencies are currently willing to take risks by approving GCTs with scientific uncertainties and safety risks, urging them to pay accurate attention to post-marketing risk management. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Epidemiology, natural history, and risk factors: panel report from the Ninth International Research Conference on Otitis Media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Kathleen A; Hoffman, Howard J; Kvaerner, Kari Jorunn

    2010-01-01

    The 2007 Recent Advances in Otitis Media Research Conference Panel Report provides an update on otitis media (OM) research published from 2003 to 2007. This report summarizes important trends in disease incidence and prevalence, describes established and newly identified risk factors for acute an...... vaccine in infants. The panel report also recommends short and long term goals for current and future OM research.......The 2007 Recent Advances in Otitis Media Research Conference Panel Report provides an update on otitis media (OM) research published from 2003 to 2007. This report summarizes important trends in disease incidence and prevalence, describes established and newly identified risk factors for acute...... and chronic OM and OM with effusion, and conveys information on newly discovered genetic factors. In this report, researchers have described declining rates of OM diagnosis, antibiotic prescriptions, offices visits for OM, and middle ear surgery since the licensure and routine use of pneumococcal conjugate...

  2. A Panel Analysis Of UK Industrial Company Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Isachenkova; John Hunter

    2002-01-01

    We examine the failure determinants for large quoted UK industrials using a panel data set comprising 539 firms observed over the period 1988-93. The empirical design employs data from company accounts and is based on Chamberlain’s conditional binomial logit model, which allows for unobservable, firm-specific, time-invariant factors associated with failure risk. We find a noticeable degree of heterogeneity across the sample companies. Our panel results show that, after controll...

  3. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-12-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an `expert panel.` The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC`s increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the {open_quotes}expert panel{close_quotes} and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate.

  4. Clinical Decision-Making Following Disasters: Efficient Identification of PTSD Risk in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Carla Kmett; Cohen, Joseph R; Adams, Zachary W; Youngstrom, Eric A; Soltis, Kathryn; Amstadter, Ananda B; Ruggiero, Kenneth J

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to utilize a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach in order to improve clinical decision-making for adolescents at risk for the development of psychopathology in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Specifically we assessed theoretically-driven individual, interpersonal, and event-related vulnerability factors to determine which indices were most accurate in forecasting PTSD. Furthermore, we aimed to translate these etiological findings by identifying clinical cut-off recommendations for relevant vulnerability factors. Our study consisted of structured phone-based clinical interviews with 2000 adolescent-parent dyads living within a 5-mile radius of tornados that devastated Joplin, MO, and northern Alabama in Spring 2011. Demographics, tornado incident characteristics, prior trauma, mental health, and family support and conflict were assessed. A subset of youth completed two behavioral assessment tasks online to assess distress tolerance and risk-taking behavior. ROC analyses indicated four variables that significantly improved PTSD diagnostic efficiency: Lifetime depression (AUC = .90), trauma history (AUC = .76), social support (AUC = .70), and family conflict (AUC = .72). Youth were 2-3 times more likely to have PTSD if they had elevated scores on any of these variables. Of note, event-related characteristics (e.g., property damage) were not related to PTSD diagnostic status. The present study adds to the literature by making specific recommendations for empirically-based, efficient disaster-related PTSD assessment for adolescents following a natural disaster. Implications for practice and future trauma-related developmental psychopathology research are discussed.

  5. Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan

    2017-05-25

    The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

  6. A New Fuzzy-Based Maximum Power Point Tracker for a Solar Panel Based on Datasheet Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Kargarnejad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tracking maximum power point of a solar panel is of interest in most of photovoltaic applications. Solar panel modeling is also very interesting exclusively based on manufacturers data. Knowing that the manufacturers generally give the electrical specifications of their products at one operating condition, there are so many cases in which the specifications in other conditions are of interest. In this research, a comprehensive one-diode model for a solar panel with maximum obtainable accuracy is fully developed only based on datasheet values. The model parameters dependencies on environmental conditions are taken into consideration as much as possible. Comparison between real data and simulations results shows that the proposed model has maximum obtainable accuracy. Then a new fuzzy-based controller to track the maximum power point of the solar panel is also proposed which has better response from speed, accuracy and stability point of view respect to the previous common developed one.

  7. RISK AND FIRM VALUE IN EUROPEAN COMPANIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu Botoc

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent uncertainties in financial markets and several company bankruptcies reinforce the relationship between risk and return as a cornerstone in corporate finance. Enterprise risk management theories offer unambiguous predictions about the relation between firm value and risk. The main aim of the paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the risk as a driver for company value creation process for European developed countries over the period 2001-2011. Using dynamic panel data model with two-step GMM-SYS method and enterprise multiple as a new approach to measure for firm value the results suggest that firm value is negatively related with risk, which is consistent with Bowman’s risk and return paradox. The negative relation between firm value and risk is robust through alternative measures, but it does not hold for companies from civil law countries. Additional control variables included in the model are significant and suggest that both growth and capital structure are negatively related with firm value.

  8. Evaluation of the Clinical Performance of the HPV-Risk Assay Using the VALGENT-3 Panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polman, N J; Oštrbenk, A; Xu, L; Snijders, P J F; Meijer, C J L M; Poljak, M; Heideman, D A M; Arbyn, M

    2017-12-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is increasingly being incorporated into cervical cancer screening. The Validation of HPV Genotyping Tests (VALGENT) is a framework designed to evaluate the clinical performance of various HPV tests relative to that of the validated and accepted comparator test in a formalized and uniform manner. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance of the HPV-Risk assay with samples from the VALGENT-3 panel and to compare its performance to that of the clinically validated Hybrid Capture 2 assay (HC2). The VALGENT-3 panel comprises 1,300 consecutive samples from women participating in routine cervical cancer screening and is enriched with 300 samples from women with abnormal cytology. DNA was extracted from original ThinPrep PreservCyt medium aliquots, and HPV testing was performed using the HPV-Risk assay by investigators blind to the clinical data. HPV prevalence was analyzed, and the clinical performance of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) and CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) relative to the performance of HC2 was assessed. The sensitivity of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of CIN3+ was similar to that of HC2 (relative sensitivity, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95 to 1.05; P = 1.000), but the specificity of the HPV-Risk assay was significantly higher than that of HC2 (relative specificity, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04; P performance of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of CIN3+ and CIN2+ was noninferior to that of HC2, with all P values being ≤0.006. In conclusion, the HPV-Risk assay demonstrated noninferiority to the clinically validated HC2 by the use of samples from the VALGENT-3 panel for test validation and comparison. Copyright © 2017 Polman et al.

  9. Insights from the panel review process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searborn, B.

    1998-01-01

    The environmental review process for nuclear waste management and disposal was unusual in that the Panel was asked to examine a concept rather than a specific project at a specific site. The Panel was charged with commenting on the safety and acceptability of the AECL concept, examining criteria for determining the safety and acceptability of any concept for managing nuclear fuel waste, and examining future steps which should be taken. In short, it was asked to provide policy advice to governments. The Panel concluded that safety is a key part, but only one part, of acceptability, and that safety must be viewed from both a technical and a social perspective. It judged that safety of the AECL concept had been adequately demonstrated from a technical perspective, but not from a social perspective. It also concluded that the AECL concept does not have the required level of public acceptability to be adopted as Canada's approach for managing nuclear fuel wastes. The paper examines in some detail the various aspects of the public concerns surrounding the nuclear cycle in general, and the safety of the proposals put forward by AECL for nuclear fuel waste management in particular. It notes the differences between those who look at safety from a technical perspective, and those who look at safety from a social perspective. And it lists the concerns related to acceptability in addition to the key factor of safety. After outlining the Panel's recommendations to governments on future steps to be taken, the paper discusses the extent to which the recommendations respond to the public's concerns. It stresses the importance of Aboriginal participation; of the creation of a new agency to deal with the full range of activities, technical and social, related to long-term management; of the public and decision-makers having more than one viable option to choose from; and of the essentiality of an inter-active process of public participation at all stages of decision-making. Finally

  10. Multicriteria decision-making method based on a cosine similarity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the cosine similarity measure is often used in information retrieval, citation analysis, and automatic classification. However, it scarcely deals with trapezoidal fuzzy information and multicriteria decision-making problems. For this purpose, a cosine similarity measure between trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is proposed based on ...

  11. Consensual decision-making model based on game theory for LNG processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Luis; Dorao, Carlos A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Decision Making (DM) approach for LNG projects based on game theory is presented. ► DM framework was tested with two different cases, using analytical models and a simple LNG process. ► The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. ► Integrated models from the design and optimization of the process could result in more realistic outcome. ► The major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models. - Abstract: Decision-Making (DM) in LNG projects is a quite complex process due to the number of actors, approval phases, large investments and capital return in the long time. Furthermore, due to the very high investment of a LNG project, a detailed and efficient DM process is required in order to minimize risks. In this work a Decision-Making (DM) approach for LNG projects is presented. The approach is based on a consensus algorithm to address the consensus output over a common value using cost functions within a framework based on game theory. The DM framework was tested with two different cases. The first case was used for evaluating the performance of the framework with analytical models, while the second case corresponds to a simple LNG process. The problems were solved by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) binary coding and Nash-GA. The results of the DM framework in the LNG project indicate that considering an integrated DM model and including the markets role from the design and optimization of the process more realistic outcome could be obtained. However, the major challenge in such a framework is related to the uncertainties in the market models.

  12. Risk-Taking Behavior in a Computerized Driving Task: Brain Activation Correlates of Decision-Making, Outcome, and Peer Influence in Male Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorobyev, Victor; Kwon, Myoung Soo; Moe, Dagfinn; Parkkola, Riitta; Hämäläinen, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    Increased propensity for risky behavior in adolescents, particularly in peer groups, is thought to reflect maturational imbalance between reward processing and cognitive control systems that affect decision-making. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate brain functional correlates of risk-taking behavior and effects of peer influence in 18-19-year-old male adolescents. The subjects were divided into low and high risk-taking groups using either personality tests or risk-taking rates in a simulated driving task. The fMRI data were analyzed for decision-making (whether to take a risk at intersections) and outcome (pass or crash) phases, and for the influence of peer competition. Personality test-based groups showed no difference in the amount of risk-taking (similarly increased during peer competition) and brain activation. When groups were defined by actual task performance, risk-taking activated two areas in the left medial prefrontal cortex (PFC) significantly more in low than in high risk-takers. In the entire sample, risky decision-specific activation was found in the anterior and dorsal cingulate, superior parietal cortex, basal ganglia (including the nucleus accumbens), midbrain, thalamus, and hypothalamus. Peer competition increased outcome-related activation in the right caudate head and cerebellar vermis in the entire sample. Our results suggest that the activation of the medial (rather than lateral) PFC and striatum is most specific to risk-taking behavior of male adolescents in a simulated driving situation, and reflect a stronger conflict and thus increased cognitive effort to take risks in low risk-takers, and reward anticipation for risky decisions, respectively. The activation of the caudate nucleus, particularly for the positive outcome (pass) during peer competition, further suggests enhanced reward processing of risk-taking under peer influence.

  13. Risk-Taking Behavior in a Computerized Driving Task: Brain Activation Correlates of Decision-Making, Outcome, and Peer Influence in Male Adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Vorobyev

    Full Text Available Increased propensity for risky behavior in adolescents, particularly in peer groups, is thought to reflect maturational imbalance between reward processing and cognitive control systems that affect decision-making. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI to investigate brain functional correlates of risk-taking behavior and effects of peer influence in 18-19-year-old male adolescents. The subjects were divided into low and high risk-taking groups using either personality tests or risk-taking rates in a simulated driving task. The fMRI data were analyzed for decision-making (whether to take a risk at intersections and outcome (pass or crash phases, and for the influence of peer competition. Personality test-based groups showed no difference in the amount of risk-taking (similarly increased during peer competition and brain activation. When groups were defined by actual task performance, risk-taking activated two areas in the left medial prefrontal cortex (PFC significantly more in low than in high risk-takers. In the entire sample, risky decision-specific activation was found in the anterior and dorsal cingulate, superior parietal cortex, basal ganglia (including the nucleus accumbens, midbrain, thalamus, and hypothalamus. Peer competition increased outcome-related activation in the right caudate head and cerebellar vermis in the entire sample. Our results suggest that the activation of the medial (rather than lateral PFC and striatum is most specific to risk-taking behavior of male adolescents in a simulated driving situation, and reflect a stronger conflict and thus increased cognitive effort to take risks in low risk-takers, and reward anticipation for risky decisions, respectively. The activation of the caudate nucleus, particularly for the positive outcome (pass during peer competition, further suggests enhanced reward processing of risk-taking under peer influence.

  14. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  15. Development and aging of decision-making rationality under risk framework

    OpenAIRE

    Han-hui LIU; Yan-yan AN; Hui-min LI; Zhen WEI; Xing-ting ZHU; Hui-jie LI

    2014-01-01

    Background Humans often display irrational choice and decision-making due to the frame effect. However, it is unclear whether this irrational choice and decision-making will increase during the aging process. Methods The present research explored development and aging of risky-seeking and rational decision-making with 232 younger adults and 120 older adults. The experiment was a 2 (Age:younger adult and old adult) × 2 (Frame: positive and negative) × 2 (Relevance: lower level and higher level...

  16. Accuracy assessment of planimetric large-scale map data for decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doskocz Adam

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents decision-making risk estimation based on planimetric large-scale map data, which are data sets or databases which are useful for creating planimetric maps on scales of 1:5,000 or larger. The studies were conducted on four data sets of large-scale map data. Errors of map data were used for a risk assessment of decision-making about the localization of objects, e.g. for land-use planning in realization of investments. An analysis was performed for a large statistical sample set of shift vectors of control points, which were identified with the position errors of these points (errors of map data.

  17. Dopaminergic Modulation of Risky Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Nicholas W.; Montgomery, Karienn S.; Beas, Blanca S.; Mitchell, Marci R.; LaSarge, Candi L.; Mendez, Ian A.; Bañuelos, Cristina; Vokes, Colin M.; Taylor, Aaron B.; Haberman, Rebecca P.; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

    2012-01-01

    Many psychiatric disorders are characterized by abnormal risky decision-making and dysregulated dopamine receptor expression. The current study was designed to determine how different dopamine receptor subtypes modulate risk-taking in young adult rats, using a “Risky Decision-making Task” that involves choices between small “safe” rewards and large “risky” rewards accompanied by adverse consequences. Rats showed considerable, stable individual differences in risk preference in the task, which were not related to multiple measures of reward motivation, anxiety, or pain sensitivity. Systemic activation of D2-like receptors robustly attenuated risk-taking, whereas drugs acting on D1-like receptors had no effect. Systemic amphetamine also reduced risk-taking, an effect which was attenuated by D2-like (but not D1-like) receptor blockade. Dopamine receptor mRNA expression was evaluated in a separate cohort of drug-naive rats characterized in the task. D1 mRNA expression in both nucleus accumbens shell and insular cortex was positively associated with risk-taking, while D2 mRNA expression in orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortex predicted risk preference in opposing nonlinear patterns. Additionally, lower levels of D2 mRNA in dorsal striatum were associated with greater risk-taking. These data strongly implicate dopamine signaling in prefrontal corticalstriatal circuitry in modulating decision-making processes involving integration of reward information with risks of adverse consequences. PMID:22131407

  18. Common basis of establishing safety standards and other safety decision-making levels for different sources of health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Current approaches in establishing safety standards and other decision-making levels for different sources of health risk are critically analysed. To have a common basis for this decision-making a specific risk index R is recommended. In the common sense R is quantitatively defined as LLE caused by the annual exposure to the risk source considered: R = annual exposure, damage (LLE) from the exposure unit. This common definition is also rewritten in specific forms for a set of different risk sources (ionising radiation, chemical pollutants, etc): for different risk sources the exposure can be measured with different quantities (the probability of death, the exposure dose, etc.). R is relative LLE: LLE in years referred to 1 year under the risk. The dimension of this value is [year/year]. In the statistical sense R is conditionally the share of the year, which is lost due to exposure to a risk source during this year. In this sense R can be called as the relative damage. Really lifetime years are lost after the exposure. R can be in some conditional sense considered as a dimensionless quantity. General safety standards R n for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index: R n = 0.0007 and 0.01 accordingly. Secondary safety standards are derived for a number of risk sources (ionising radiation, environmental chemical pollutants, etc). Values of R n are chosen in such a way that to have the secondary radiation BSS being equivalent to the current one's. Other general and derived levels for safety decision-making are also proposed including the de-minimus levels. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data (HDD) is considered. Such issues as the ways of the integration and averaging of risk indices considered through the national or regional HDD for different risk sources and the use of non-threshold linear exposure - response relationships for ionising radiation and chemical pollutants are analysed

  19. Emotion-based decision-making in healthy subjects: short-term effects of reducing dopamine levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevy, Serge; Hassoun, Youssef; Bechara, Antoine; Yechiam, Eldad; Napolitano, Barbara; Burdick, Katherine; Delman, Howard; Malhotra, Anil

    2006-10-01

    Converging evidences from animal and human studies suggest that addiction is associated with dopaminergic dysfunction in brain reward circuits. So far, it is unclear what aspects of addictive behaviors are related to a dopaminergic dysfunction. We hypothesize that a decrease in dopaminergic activity impairs emotion-based decision-making. To demonstrate this hypothesis, we investigated the effects of a decrease in dopaminergic activity on the performance of an emotion-based decision-making task, the Iowa gambling task (IGT), in 11 healthy human subjects. We used a double-blind, placebo-controlled, within-subject design to examine the effect of a mixture containing the branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) valine, isoleucine and leucine on prolactin, IGT performance, perceptual competency and visual aspects of visuospatial working memory, visual attention and working memory, and verbal memory. The expectancy-valence model was used to determine the relative contributions of distinct IGT components (attention to past outcomes, relative weight of wins and losses, and choice strategies) in the decision-making process. Compared to placebo, the BCAA mixture increased prolactin levels and impaired IGT performance. BCAA administration interfered with a particular component process of decision-making related to attention to more recent events as compared to more distant events. There were no differences between placebo and BCAA conditions for other aspects of cognition. Our results suggest a direct link between a reduced dopaminergic activity and poor emotion-based decision-making characterized by shortsightedness, and thus difficulties resisting short-term reward, despite long-term negative consequences. These findings have implications for behavioral and pharmacological interventions targeting impaired emotion-based decision-making in addictive disorders.

  20. Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element Cardiovascular Risks Standing Review Panel (SRP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The Cardiovascular Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) evaluated several cardiovascular risks associated with space flight along with the ongoing and emerging plans to study these issues and potentially propose and/or develop countermeasures. The areas of focus included: 1) The risk of cardiac rhythm problems during prolonged space flight, and 2) Issues related to the risk of orthostatic intolerance during re-exposure to gravity. An emerging area of concern is radiation associated vascular injury. The risk of cardiac rhythm disturbances has emerged based on case reports only. No systematic study of this risk has been published. However, concerns about this risk are heightened by the age range of astronauts, the structural changes in the heart that occur during space flight, and the potential shifts in fluids and electrolytes. The current plan is to use prolonged Holter monitor EKG records made as part of the "Integrated Cardiovascular SMO" in space to determine more about the frequency and magnitude of this problem and to link this data to complementary data from the nutrition group on electrolytes. The SRP was supportive of this approach. The SRP also felt that any data related to cardiovascular risk in space should be better coordinated with the medical screening data that all astronauts undergo at regular intervals. Additionally, while there are potential privacy issues related to this suggestion, many of the current barriers to better coordination of experimental and clinical data appear to reflect longstanding cultural traditions at NASA that need rethinking. The risk of orthostatic intolerance during re-exposure to gravity was seen by the SRP as an area supported by a wealth of published physiological evidence. The SRP also felt that moving forward with the planned approach to countermeasures was reasonable and that extensive additional hypothesis testing on the physiology of orthostatic intolerance was not needed at this time. There was support for developing

  1. The Impact of Sexual Arousal on Sexual Risk-Taking and Decision-Making in Men and Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakoon-Sparling, Shayna; Cramer, Kenneth M; Shuper, Paul A

    2016-01-01

    Sexual arousal has emerged as an important contextual feature in sexual encounters that can impact safer-sex decision-making. We conducted two experiments that investigated the effects of sexual arousal among male and female participants. Experiment 1 (N = 144) examined the impact of sexual around on sexual health decision-making. Sexually explicit and neutral video clips as well as hypothetical romantic scenarios were used to evaluate the effects of sexual arousal on sexual risk-taking intentions. Men and women who reported higher levels of sexual arousal also displayed greater intentions to participate in risky sexual behavior (e.g., unprotected sex with a new sex partner). Experiment 2 (N = 122) examined the impact of sexual arousal on general risk-taking, using the same videos clips as in Experiment 1 and a modified version of a computerized Blackjack card game. Participants were offered a chance to make either a risky play or a safe play during ambiguous conditions. Increased sexual arousal in Experiment 2 was associated with impulsivity and a greater willingness to make risky plays in the Blackjack game. These findings suggest that, in situations where there are strong sexually visceral cues, both men and women experiencing strong sexual arousal may have lower inhibitions and may experience impaired decision-making. This phenomenon may have an impact during sexual encounters and may contribute to a failure to use appropriate prophylactic protection.

  2. Maternal psychological distress and child decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, Eirini; Ioakeimidi, Sofia; Midouhas, Emily; Ploubidis, George B

    2017-08-15

    There is much research to suggest that maternal psychological distress is associated with many adverse outcomes in children. This study examined, for the first time, if it is related to children's affective decision-making. Using data from 12,080 families of the Millennium Cohort Study, we modelled the effect of trajectories of maternal psychological distress in early-to-middle childhood (3-11 years) on child affective decision-making, measured with a gambling task at age 11. Latent class analysis showed four longitudinal types of maternal psychological distress (chronically high, consistently low, moderate-accelerating and moderate-decelerating). Maternal distress typology predicted decision-making but only in girls. Specifically, compared to girls growing up in families with never-distressed mothers, those exposed to chronically high maternal psychological distress showed more risk-taking, bet more and exhibited poorer risk-adjustment, even after correction for confounding. Most of these effects on girls' decision-making were not robust to additional controls for concurrent internalising and externalising problems, but chronically high maternal psychological distress was associated positively with risk-taking even after this adjustment. Importantly, this association was similar for those who had reached puberty and those who had not. Given the study design, causality cannot be inferred. Therefore, we cannot propose that treating chronic maternal psychological distress will reduce decision-making pathology in young females. Our study suggests that young daughters of chronically distressed mothers tend to be particularly reckless decision-makers. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Mild cognitive impairment is associated with poorer decision-making in community-based older persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, S Duke; Boyle, Patricia A; James, Bryan D; Yu, Lei; Bennett, David A

    2015-04-01

    To test the hypothesis that mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with poorer financial and healthcare decision-making. Community-based epidemiological cohort study. Communities throughout northeastern Illinois. Older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (N = 730). All participants underwent a detailed clinical evaluation and decision-making assessment using a measure that closely approximates materials used in real-world financial and healthcare settings. This allowed for measurement of total decision-making and financial and healthcare decision-making. Regression models were used to examine whether MCI was associated with a lower level of decision-making. In subsequent analyses, the relationship between specific cognitive systems (episodic memory, semantic memory, working memory, perceptual speed, visuospatial ability) and decision-making was explored in participants with MCI. MCI was associated with lower total, financial, and healthcare decision-making scores after accounting for the effects of age, education, and sex. The effect of MCI on total decision-making was equivalent to the effect of more than 10 additional years of age. Additional models showed that, when considering multiple cognitive systems, perceptual speed accounted for the most variance in decision-making in participants with MCI. Persons with MCI may have poorer financial and healthcare decision-making in real-world situations, and perceptual speed may be an important contributor to poorer decision-making in persons with MCI. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

  4. 2014 Bone and Muscle Risks Standing Review Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Susan; Glowacki, Julie; Gregor, Robert; Cullen, Diane; Drake, Almond; Enoka, Roger; Hanley, Edward, Jr.; Kraemer, William; Raven, Peter; Sumner, D. Rick

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Bone and Muscle Risks Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 17 - 18, 2014. The SRP reviewed the updated Evidence Reports for the Risk of Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength and Endurance and (from here on referred to as the 2014 Muscle Evidence Report) and the Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity (from here on referred to as the 2014 Aerobic Evidence Report), as well as the Research Plans for these Risks. The SRP agreed the Evidence Reports were comprehensive and described a logical sequence of steps taken by NASA and the scientific community to address the risk of impaired performance as a result of muscle atrophy, i.e., reduced muscle mass, loss of strength and loss of endurance in a microgravity environment. The interdependence of the three physiological systems represented by this SRP (i.e., skeletal, muscular and cardiovascular) supports a level of discussion on system integration that is now appreciated by the Chief Scientist of the Human Research Program (HRP). The Evidence Reports cover the effects of microgravity on muscle, ranging from the cellular and molecular levels to whole muscle function. The reports also addressed other factors related to muscle (e.g., neural influences, insulin resistance, heat stress, and nutrition) that will serve as a basis for future discussions on the integration of physiological systems and the response to microgravity. The SRP agreed the Evidence Reports were balanced, provided insight to muscle function, and laid the foundation for the integrated approach now taken by the SRP.

  5. Assessment of Level of Risk in Decision-Making in Terms of Career Exploitation

    OpenAIRE

    Semenov, Aleksandr Sergeevich; Kuznetcov, Vladimir Sergeevich

    2015-01-01

    When designing career plots the raw data are stochastic in nature. From the results of the determination of these initial data depends not only the final result of the design or evaluation, but also the feasibility of the development of the field. While there are significant errors associated with the probabilistic nature of the source data and measurement errors and errors of calculations. Risk assessment is an integral part of project documentation. The project decision-making occurs under ...

  6. Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

    2016-04-01

    This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

  7. Analysing Production Technology and Risk in Organic and Conventional Dutch Arable Farming using Panel Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Chavez Clemente, M.D.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract This paper compares the production technology and production risk of organic and conventional arable farms in the Netherlands. Just–Pope production functions that explicitly account for output variability are estimated using panel data of Dutch organic and conventional farms. Prior

  8. Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning — the “jumping to conclusion” bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). Methods We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. Results We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Limitations Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not pre-psychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. Conclusion As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk. PMID:25622039

  9. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    observed values) and in terms of their economic value. This assessment is performed for lead times of one to five days. The three systems are: (1) simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, (2) forecasts based on meteorological ensembles and (3) a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variables uncertainty. The comparison takes place on the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in south central Quebec, Canada. The results show that forecasts quality as assessed by well-known tools such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score or the reliability diagram do not necessarily translate directly into economic value, especially if the decision maker is not risk-neutral. In addition, results show that the economic value of forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker is very much influenced by the most extreme members of ensemble forecasts (upper tail of the predictive distributions). This study provides a new basis for further improvement of our comprehension of the complex interactions between forecasts uncertainty, risk-aversion and decision-making.

  10. A new web-based framework development for fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

    2016-01-01

    Fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making (FMCGDM) process is usually used when a group of decision-makers faces imprecise data or linguistic variables to solve the problems. However, this process contains many methods that require many time-consuming calculations depending on the number of criteria, alternatives and decision-makers in order to reach the optimal solution. In this study, a web-based FMCGDM framework that offers decision-makers a fast and reliable response service is proposed. The proposed framework includes commonly used tools for multi-criteria decision-making problems such as fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The integration of these methods enables taking advantages of the strengths and complements each method's weakness. Finally, a case study of location selection for landfill waste in Morocco is performed to demonstrate how this framework can facilitate decision-making process. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully accomplish the goal of this study.

  11. The Montreal Protocol treaty and its illuminating history of science-policy decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.

  12. Vicarious Effort-Based Decision-Making in Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosner, Maya G.; Kinard, Jessica L.; McWeeny, Sean; Shah, Jasmine S.; Markiewitz, Nathan D.; Damiano-Goodwin, Cara R.; Burchinal, Margaret R.; Rutherford, Helena J. V.; Greene, Rachel K.; Treadway, Michael T.; Dichter, Gabriel S.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated vicarious effort-based decision-making in 50 adolescents with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) compared to 32 controls using the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task. Participants made choices to win money for themselves or for another person. When choosing for themselves, the ASD group exhibited relatively similar patterns…

  13. Dispositional optimism, self-framing and medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xu; Huang, Chunlei; Li, Xuesong; Zhao, Xin; Peng, Jiaxi

    2015-03-01

    Self-framing is an important but underinvestigated area in risk communication and behavioural decision-making, especially in medical settings. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship among dispositional optimism, self-frame and decision-making. Participants (N = 500) responded to the Life Orientation Test-Revised and self-framing test of medical decision-making problem. The participants whose scores were higher than the middle value were regarded as highly optimistic individuals. The rest were regarded as low optimistic individuals. The results showed that compared to the high dispositional optimism group, participants from the low dispositional optimism group showed a greater tendency to use negative vocabulary to construct their self-frame, and tended to choose the radiation therapy with high treatment survival rate, but low 5-year survival rate. Based on the current findings, it can be concluded that self-framing effect still exists in medical situation and individual differences in dispositional optimism can influence the processing of information in a framed decision task, as well as risky decision-making. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

  14. Fatigue behavior of wood-fiber-based tri-axial engineered sandwich composite panels (ESCP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinghao Li; John F. Hunt; Shaoqin Gong; Zhiyong Cai

    2015-01-01

    The static and fatigue bending behavior of wood-fiber-based tri-axial engineered sandwich composite panels (ESCP) has been investigated by four-point bending tests. Fatigue panels and weakened panels (wESCP) with an initial interface defect were manufactured for the fatigue tests. Stress σ vs. number of cycles curves (S-N) were recorded under the different stress...

  15. The Bilirubin Binding Panel: A Henderson-Hasselbalch Approach to Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlfors, Charles E

    2016-10-01

    Poor plasma bilirubin binding increases the risk of bilirubin neurotoxicity in newborns with hyperbilirubinemia. New laboratory tests may soon make it possible to obtain a complete bilirubin binding panel when evaluating these babies. The 3 measured components of the panel are the plasma total bilirubin concentration (B Total ), which is currently used to guide clinical care; the bilirubin binding capacity (BBC); and the concentration of non-albumin bound or free bilirubin (B Free ). The fourth component is the bilirubin-albumin equilibrium dissociation constant, K D , which is calculated from B Total , BBC, and B Free The bilirubin binding panel is comparable to the panel of components used in the Henderson-Hasselbalch approach to acid-base assessment. Bilirubin binding population parameters (not prospective studies to determine whether the new bilirubin binding panel components are better predictors of bilirubin neurotoxicity than B Total ) are needed to expedite the clinical use of bilirubin binding. At any B Total , the B Free and the relative risk of bilirubin neurotoxicity increase as the K D /BBC ratio increases (ie, bilirubin binding worsens). Comparing the K D /BBC ratio of newborns with B Total of concern with that typical for the population helps determine whether the risk of bilirubin neurotoxicity varies significantly from the inherent risk at that B Total Furthermore, the bilirubin binding panel individualizes care because it helps to determine how aggressive intervention should be at any B Total , irrespective of whether it is above or below established B Total guidelines. The bilirubin binding panel may reduce anxiety, costs, unnecessary treatment, and the likelihood of undetected bilirubin neurotoxicity. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  16. Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Eun Jeong; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative analysis and assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Decision models that have been utilized during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic component rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward consequences and risk only to a limited degree. The application of models reflecting these attitudes to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events that may impact civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. In particular, the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.

  17. Elucidating poor decision-making in a rat gambling task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion Rivalan

    Full Text Available Although poor decision-making is a hallmark of psychiatric conditions such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, pathological gambling or substance abuse, a fraction of healthy individuals exhibit similar poor decision-making performances in everyday life and specific laboratory tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task. These particular individuals may provide information on risk factors or common endophenotypes of these mental disorders. In a rodent version of the Iowa gambling task--the Rat Gambling Task (RGT, we identified a population of poor decision makers, and assessed how these rats scored for several behavioral traits relevant to executive disorders: risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, and several aspects of impulsivity. First, we found that poor decision-making could not be well predicted by single behavioral and cognitive characteristics when considered separately. By contrast, a combination of independent traits in the same individual, namely risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, as well as motor impulsivity, was highly predictive of poor decision-making. Second, using a reinforcement-learning model of the RGT, we confirmed that only the combination of extreme scores on these traits could induce maladaptive decision-making. Third, the model suggested that a combination of these behavioral traits results in an inaccurate representation of rewards and penalties and inefficient learning of the environment. Poor decision-making appears as a consequence of the over-valuation of high-reward-high-risk options in the task. Such a specific psychological profile could greatly impair clinically healthy individuals in decision-making tasks and may predispose to mental disorders with similar symptoms.

  18. Search and Classification Using Multiple Autonomous Vehicles Decision-Making and Sensor Management

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Yue

    2012-01-01

    Search and Classification Using Multiple Autonomous Vehicles provides a comprehensive study of decision-making strategies for domain search and object classification using multiple autonomous vehicles (MAV) under both deterministic and probabilistic frameworks. It serves as a first discussion of the problem of effective resource allocation using MAV with sensing limitations, i.e., for search and classification missions over large-scale domains, or when there are far more objects to be found and classified than there are autonomous vehicles available. Under such scenarios, search and classification compete for limited sensing resources. This is because search requires vehicle mobility while classification restricts the vehicles to the vicinity of any objects found. The authors develop decision-making strategies to choose between these competing tasks and vehicle-motion-control laws to achieve the proposed management scheme. Deterministic Lyapunov-based, probabilistic Bayesian-based, and risk-based decision-mak...

  19. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  20. Differentiating the influence of incidental anger and fear on risk decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiwei; Zhao, Ding; Wu, Yan; Tang, Ping; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has revealed that incidental emotions of different valence (positive/negative/neutral) produce distinct impacts on risk decision-making. This study went on to compare the effects of different emotions of which the valence are identical. We focused on anger and fear, both of which are negative emotions but differ in motivational and appraisal dimensions. Participants finished a forced-choice gambling task, during which incidental emotions (anger/fear/happy) were elicited by facial stimuli selected from the Chinese Facial Affective Picture System. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were recorded in the experiment, which showed that anger and fear were different in their influence on behavioral risk preference and the relationship between outcome processing and subsequent risk decisions. Regarding the behavioral results, risk preference in the anger condition was higher than the fear condition, but lower than the happy condition. Regarding the ERP results elicited by outcome feedback (gain/loss), in the fear condition, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) was positively correlated with risk preference; in the anger condition, the gain-related P3 component was positively correlated with risk preference; in the happy condition, both the FRN and the loss-related P3 was negatively correlated with risk preference. The current findings provide novel insight into distinguishing the effect of different incidental emotions on risk preference. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

    2017-02-01

    Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro-medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED.

  2. Assessing an Adolescent's Capacity for Autonomous Decision-Making in Clinical Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaud, Pierre-André; Blum, Robert Wm; Benaroyo, Lazare; Zermatten, Jean; Baltag, Valentina

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide policy guidance on how to assess the capacity of minor adolescents for autonomous decision-making without a third party authorization, in the field of clinical care. In June 2014, a two-day meeting gathered 20 professionals from all continents, working in the field of adolescent medicine, neurosciences, developmental and clinical psychology, sociology, ethics, and law. Formal presentations and discussions were based on a literature search and the participants' experience. The assessment of adolescent decision-making capacity includes the following: (1) a review of the legal context consistent with the principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child; (2) an empathetic relationship between the adolescent and the health care professional/team; (3) the respect of the adolescent's developmental stage and capacities; (4) the inclusion, if relevant, of relatives, peers, teachers, or social and mental health providers with the adolescent's consent; (5) the control of coercion and other social forces that influence decision-making; and (6) a deliberative stepwise appraisal of the adolescent's decision-making process. This stepwise approach, already used among adults with psychiatric disorders, includes understanding the different facets of the given situation, reasoning on the involved issues, appreciating the outcomes linked with the decision(s), and expressing a choice. Contextual and psychosocial factors play pivotal roles in the assessment of adolescents' decision-making capacity. The evaluation must be guided by a well-established procedure, and health professionals should be trained accordingly. These proposals are the first to have been developed by a multicultural, multidisciplinary expert panel. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Data quality in probability-based online panels: Nonresponse, attrition, and panel conditioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struminskaya, B.; Methodology and statistics for the behavioural and social sciences

    2014-01-01

    Online panels – surveys administered over the Internet in which persons are asked to complete surveys regularly – offer cost reductions compared to surveys that use more traditional modes of data collection (face-to-face, telephone, and mail). However, some characteristics of online panels may cause

  4. Ageing tests study on wood-based sandwich panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateo, Raquel

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Composite lightweight wood panels are being increasingly used in construction in Spain. Their growing use should be accompanied by necessary guarantees based on studies of their properties. As it is prescriptive and in addition to others tests, in the present work is examinated the durability of these panels when exposed to the climatic conditions, a characteristic of great importance for wood products, according to Guide ETAG 016, the current standard defining the ageing tests to be used. However, due to the use class of this material, there are indications that the testing outlined in this Guide is inappropriate for assessing the ageing of wood-based sandwich panels. Alternative tests are here proposed that recreate rather better the real conditions under which these products are used. Covering the samples in a waterproof sheeting permeable to the outward movement of water vapour, which is in fact used in the installation, provided the best procedure for testing these panels.

    Los paneles sándwich de madera son un producto de creciente aplicación en la edificación de nuestro país. Este ascendente uso del material debe estar acompañado de las garantías necesarias avaladas por un estudio previo de sus prestaciones. Como es preceptivo y entre otros, se evalúa su durabilidad frente a las condiciones climatológicas, clave en los productos derivados de la madera, acorde a la normativa actual definida con tal fin, la Guía ETAG 016. Sin embargo, debido a la clase de uso del material, se ha detectado que dicha normativa tal y como está concebida no es capaz de valorar su envejecimiento adecuadamente. En este trabajo se proponen ensayos alternativos al establecido tras exhaustivos análisis que recrean las condiciones reales de uso y más acordes a los productos de madera. Se concluye que la incorporación de una lámina impermeable pero permeable al vapor de agua hacia el exterior, como las utilizadas en el montaje, aportan el mejor

  5. Procedural Rationality in the Decision-Making of Internationalizing SMEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose

    This paper contributes to the growing body of empirical work on how SME decision-makers decide to internationalize in two ways: first, it responds to recent calls for incorporating strategic decision-making literature into understanding SME internationalization decisions. Second, it provides a be...... a more rational decision-making procedure when they perceive a high level of international risk. The evidence also suggest that internationalization performance, planned internationalization, credit check, and decision team size are positively related to procedural rationality....... a better understanding of under what circumstances, SME decision-makers tend to follow a more rational approach toward internationalization decisions. Specifically, this paper examines a set of contextual variables (the level of perceived international risk, internationalization performance, planned versus...... ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow...

  6. Factors influencing maternal decision-making for the infant sleep environment in families at higher risk of SIDS:a qualitative study

    OpenAIRE

    Pease, Anna; Ingram, Jenny; Blair, Pete; Fleming, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Qualitative interviews with mothers of babies at higher risk of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) were carried out to understand their views and decision-making process on the infant sleep environment and safe sleep messages.Design and setting: Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted between February and November 2014 in deprived areas of Bristol, UK. Mothers were asked about their decision-making for the infant sleep environment and safe sleep messages including infant ...

  7. Factors influencing maternal decision-making for the infant sleep environment in families at higher risk of SIDS: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pease, Anna; Ingram, Jenny; Blair, Peter S; Fleming, Peter J

    2017-01-01

    Qualitative interviews with mothers of babies at higher risk of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) were carried out to understand their views and decision-making process on the infant sleep environment and safe sleep messages. Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted between February and November 2014 in deprived areas of Bristol, UK. Mothers were asked about their decision-making for the infant sleep environment and safe sleep messages including infant sleep position, co-sleeping, smoking, dummy use, feeding and disrupted routines. The interviews were transcribed, coded and thematic analysis carried out. Participants were invited based on an algorithm developed in a previous SIDS case control study that identified an increased risk of SIDS from four demographic characteristics: young maternal age, smoking during pregnancy, three or more children, and a measure of deprivation. The presence of three, or more characteristics led to being invited to take part in the qualitative study. Factors influencing mothers' adherence to the safe sleep messages included previous experience and the credibility of the advice given. They described disrupted routines that led to risky scenarios with a belief that occasional risks were acceptable. Where circumstances made following the advice more difficult they found alternative strategies to reduce the risk, including the use of movement monitors, regular checking and a belief that lighter maternal sleep in the presence of a baby was protective. Safer sleep messages should be tailored to fit with the lived realities of mothers, especially those at higher risk. The traditional list of 'do's' and 'don'ts' was not well accepted by this group. Interventions that seek to influence this higher-risk group should acknowledge mothers' own protective instincts and consider their beliefs and understanding behind the safer sleep messages if they are to be effective and encourage this group to change.

  8. Multi-objective decision-making model based on CBM for an aircraft fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Lin, Lin

    2018-04-01

    Modern production management patterns, in which multi-unit (e.g., a fleet of aircrafts) are managed in a holistic manner, have brought new challenges for multi-unit maintenance decision making. To schedule a good maintenance plan, not only does the individual machine maintenance have to be considered, but also the maintenance of the other individuals have to be taken into account. Since most condition-based maintenance researches for aircraft focused on solely reducing maintenance cost or maximizing the availability of single aircraft, as well as considering that seldom researches concentrated on both the two objectives: minimizing cost and maximizing the availability of a fleet (total number of available aircraft in fleet), a multi-objective decision-making model based on condition-based maintenance concentrated both on the above two objectives is established. Furthermore, in consideration of the decision maker may prefer providing the final optimal result in the form of discrete intervals instead of a set of points (non-dominated solutions) in real decision-making problem, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on support vector regression is proposed to solve the above multi-objective decision-making model. Finally, a case study regarding a fleet is conducted, with the results proving that the approach efficiently generates outcomes that meet the schedule requirements.

  9. Decision-making and risk-assessment in living liver donation: how informed is the informed consent of donors? A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papachristou, Christina; Walter, Marc; Marc, Walter; Frommer, Joerg; Frommer, Jeorg; Klapp, Burghard F

    2010-01-01

    The practice of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has been increasing over the past 20 years. In LDLT, a healthy individual offers a substantial part of his or her liver (up to 60%) for the benefit of a terminally-ill recipient. The aim of the study was to identify decision-making and risk-assessment patterns of living liver donors and assess whether the principles of informed consent and decision autonomy are being met. The authors conducted semistructured clinical interviews with 28 donors before transplantation. The authors found that a decision was being reached before a decision-making process could take place. Surgery risks were perceived and processed in different ways, including the factors of risk-awareness, denial, limited acceptance, and fatalism. The authors assess concepts of informed consent and decision autonomy in LDLT, and offer suggestions for donor selection.

  10. New Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Method Based on Vague Set Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Kuo-Sui Lin

    2016-01-01

    In light of the deficiencies and limitations for existing score functions, Lin has proposed a more effective and reasonable new score function for measuring vague values. By using Lin’s score function and a new weighted aggregation score function, an algorithm for multi-criteria group decision-making method was proposed to solve vague set based group decision-making problems under vague environments. Finally, a numerical example was illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed multi-...

  11. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  12. EFSA CONTAM Panel (EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain), 2015. Scientific Opinion on the risks to public health related to the presence of nickel in food and drinking water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Annette

    EFSA received a request from the Hellenic Food Authority (EFET) for a scientific opinion on the risk to human health from the presence of nickel (Ni) in food, particularly in vegetables. The EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM Panel) decided to extend the risk assessment also...... to drinking water. The reproductive and developmental toxicity in experimental animals was selected as the critical effect for the assessment of chronic effects of Ni. A tolerable daily intake of 2.8 µg Ni/kg body weight (b.w.) per day was derived from a lower 95 % confidence limit for a benchmark dose at 10...... after oral exposure to Ni was selected as the critical effect suitable for the assessment of acute effects of Ni. A lowest BMDL10 of 1.1 µg Ni/kg b.w. was derived for the incidence of SCD following oral exposure to Ni of human volunteers. The CONTAM Panel applied a margin of exposure (MOE) approach...

  13. Non-Uniform Compressive Strength of Debonded Sandwich Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berggreen, Carl Christian; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    2005-01-01

    .(2005)., shows that the model is indeed able to predict the failure modes and the residual strength of damaged panels with accuracy sufficient for practical applications. This opens up for a number of important engineering applications, for example risk-based inspection and repair schemes....

  14. 2014 Decompression Sickness/Extravehicular Activity Risks Standing Review Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Susan; Mahon, Richard; Klaus, David; Neuman, Tom; Pilmanis, Andrew; Regis, David

    2014-01-01

    The 2014 Decompression Sickness (DCS)/Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Risks Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on November 4 - 5, 2014. The SRP reviewed the Research Plans for The Risk of Decompression Sickness and the Risk of Injury and Compromised Performance due to EVA Operations, as well as the Evidence Reports for both of these Risks. The SRP found that the NASA DCS/EVA team did an excellent job of presenting their research plans. The SRP considers it critical that NASA proceeds with the high priority tasks identified in this report (DCS1, DCS3, DCS5). The highest priority is to determine the acceptable DCS and hypoxia risk associated with the planned human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The risk of DCS is highly dependent upon the pressure within the exploration vehicle. If slightly more hypoxia is permitted then (even with the same percentage of oxygen) the pressure within the exploration vehicle can be lowered thus further mitigating the risk of DCS. The second highest priority is to test and validate the recommended 8.2psi/34% O2 atmosphere. Development of procedures and equipment for human exploration missions are very limited until the results of this testing are completed. The SRP also suggests that DCS7 be separated into two Gaps. Gap DCS7 should deal with DCS treatment while a new Gap should be created to deal with the long-term effects of DCS. The SRP also encourages NASA to increase collaboration with other organizations and pool resources where possible. The current NASA DCS/EVA team has the extensive expertise and a wealth of knowledge in this area. The SRP suggests that increased manpower for this team would be highly productive.

  15. Beyond Bioethics: A Child Rights-Based Approach to Complex Medical Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Katherine; Melamed, Irene; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    This analysis adopts a child rights approach-based on the principles, standards, and norms of child rights and the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC)-to explore how decisions could be made with regard to treatment of a severely impaired infant (Baby G). While a child rights approach does not provide neat answers to ethically complex issues, it does provide a framework for decision-making in which the infant is viewed as an independent rights-holder. The state has obligations to develop the capacity of those who make decisions for infants in such situations to meet their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill their rights as delineated in the CRC. Furthermore, a child rights approach requires procedural clarity and transparency in decision-making processes. As all rights in the CRC are interdependent and indivisible, all must be considered in the process of ethical decision-making, and the reasons for decisions must be delineated by reference to how these rights were considered. It is also important that decisions that are made in this context be monitored and reviewed to ensure consistency. A rights-based framework ensures decision-making is child-centered and that there are transparent criteria and legitimate procedures for making decisions regarding the child's most basic human right: the right to life, survival, and development.

  16. Panel Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brænder, Morten; Andersen, Lotte Bøgh

    2014-01-01

    Based on our 2013-article, ”Does Deployment to War Affect Soldiers' Public Service Motivation – A Panel Study of Soldiers Before and After their Service in Afghanistan”, we present Panel Analysis as a methodological discipline. Panels consist of multiple units of analysis, observed at two or more...... in research settings where it is not possible to distribute units of analysis randomly or where the independent variables cannot be manipulated. The greatest disadvantage in regard to using panel studies is that data may be difficult to obtain. This is most clearly vivid in regard to the use of panel surveys...... points in time. In comparison with traditional cross-sectional studies, the advantage of using panel studies is that the time dimension enables us to study effects. Whereas experimental designs may have a clear advantage in regard to causal inference, the strength of panel studies is difficult to match...

  17. Involvement and Influence of Healthcare Providers, Family Members, and Other Mutation Carriers in the Cancer Risk Management Decision-Making Process of BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puski, Athena; Hovick, Shelly; Senter, Leigha; Toland, Amanda Ewart

    2018-03-29

    Deciding between increased cancer screening or prophylactic surgery and the timing of such procedures can be a difficult and complex process for women with BRCA mutations. There are gaps in our understanding of involvement of others in the decision-making process for women with BRCA mutations. This study evaluated the management decision-making process of women with BRCA mutations, focusing on the involvement of others. Grounded theory was used to analyze and code risk management decision-making information from interviews with 20 BRCA mutation carriers. Unaffected at-risk participants with a BRCA mutation, those under age 40, and those with no children described having a difficult time making risk management decisions. Physicians were an integral part of the decision-making process by providing decisional support and management recommendations. Family members and other mutation carriers filled similar yet distinct roles by providing experiential information as well as decisional and emotional support for carriers. Participants described genetic counselors as short-term providers of risk information and management recommendations. The study findings suggest that unaffected at-risk women, women under 40, and those who do not have children may benefit from additional support and information during the decision-making process. Genetic counselors are well trained to help women through this process and connect them with resources, and may be under-utilized in long-term follow-up for women with a BRCA mutation.

  18. Informed decision-making in elective major vascular surgery: analysis of 145 surgeon-patient consultations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etchells, Edward; Ferrari, Michel; Kiss, Alex; Martyn, Nikki; Zinman, Deborah; Levinson, Wendy

    2011-06-01

    Prior studies show significant gaps in the informed decision-making process, a central goal of surgical care. These studies have been limited by their focus on low-risk decisions, single visits rather than entire consultations, or both. Our objectives were, first, to rate informed decision-making for major elective vascular surgery based on audiotapes of actual physician-patient conversations and, second, to compare ratings of informed decision-making for first visits to ratings for multiple visits by the same patient over time. We prospectively enrolled patients for whom vascular surgical treatment was a potential option at a tertiary care outpatient vascular surgery clinic. We audio-taped all surgeon-patient conversations, including multiple visits when necessary, until a decision was made. Using an existing method, we evaluated the transcripts for elements of decision-making, including basic elements (e.g., an explanation of the clinical condition), intermediate elements (e.g., risks and benefits) and complex elements (e.g., uncertainty around the decision). We analyzed 145 surgeon-patient consultations. Overall, 45% of consultations contained complex elements, whereas 23% did not contain the basic elements of decision-making. For the 67 consultations that involved multiple visits, ratings were significantly higher when evaluating all visits (50% complex elements) compared with evaluating only the first visit (33% complex elements, p decision-making over multiple visits yielded different results than analyzing decision-making for single visits.

  19. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  20. Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

    OpenAIRE

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2011-01-01

    A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

  1. Biotechnology and Consumer Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sax, Joanna K

    Society is facing major challenges in climate change, health care and overall quality of life. Scientific advances to address these areas continue to grow, with overwhelming evidence that the application of highly tested forms of biotechnology is safe and effective. Despite scientific consensus in these areas, consumers appear reluctant to support their use. Research that helps to understand consumer decision-making and the public’s resistance to biotechnologies such as vaccines, fluoridated water programs and genetically engineered food, will provide great social value. This article is forward-thinking in that it suggests that important research in behavioral decision-making, specifically affect and ambiguity, can be used to help consumers make informed choices about major applications of biotechnology. This article highlights some of the most controversial examples: vaccinations, genetically engineered food, rbST treated dairy cows, fluoridated water, and embryonic stem cell research. In many of these areas, consumers perceive the risks as high, but the experts calculate the risks as low. Four major thematic approaches are proposed to create a roadmap for policymakers to consider for policy design and implementation in controversial areas of biotechnology. This article articulates future directions for studies that implement decision-making research to allow consumers to appropriately assign risk to their options and make informed decisions.

  2. Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

  3. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  4. Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bistrian, Bruce

    2009-01-01

    The Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) reviewed and discussed the specific gaps and tasks for the Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element related to nutrition identified in the Human Research Program (HRP) Integrated Research Plan. There was general consensus that the described gaps and proposed tasks were critical to future NASA mission success. The SRP acknowledged the high scientific quality of the work currently being undertaken by the Nutritional Biochemistry group under the direction of Dr. Scott Smith. In review of the entire HRP, four new gaps were identified that complement the Element's existing research activities. Given the limitations of ground-based analogs for many of the unique physiological and metabolic alterations in space, future studies are needed to quantify nutritional factors that change during actual space flight. In addition, future tasks should seek to better evaluate the time course of physiological and metabolic alterations during flight to better predict alterations during longer duration missions. Finally, given the recent data suggesting a potential role for increased inflammatory responses during space flight, the role of inflammation needs to be explored in detail, including the development of potential countermeasures and new ground based analogs, if this possibility is confirmed.

  5. Consumer Decision-Making Styles Extension to Trust-Based Product Comparison Site Usage Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslaw Macik

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes an implementation of extended consumer decision-making styles concept in explaining consumer choices made in product comparison site environment in the context of trust-based information technology acceptance model. Previous research proved that trust-based acceptance model is useful in explaining purchase intention and anticipated satisfaction in product comparison site environment, as an example of online decision shopping aids. Trust to such aids is important in explaining their usage by consumers. The connections between consumer decision-making styles, product and sellers opinions usage, cognitive and affective trust toward online product comparison site, as well as choice outcomes (purchase intention and brand choice are explored trough structural equation models using PLS-SEM approach, using a sample of 461 young consumers. Research confirmed the validity of research model in explaining product comparison usage, and some consumer decision-making styles influenced consumers’ choices and purchase intention. Product and sellers reviews usage were partially mediating mentioned relationships.

  6. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  7. The risk management of perishable supply chain based on coloured Petri Net modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The supply chain of perishable products is a combination of information organization, sharing and integration. The information modeling of supply chain is constructed to abstract key quality information including environment information, processing procedures and product quality assessments based on principle of quality safety factors and property of decay rate. The coloured Petri Net is applied for integrated description of independent information classification, aiming at risk identification and risk management framework. Well, according to the quality deterioration tendency, risk grades management and decision-making system are established. Practically, the circulation system of aquatic products is studied in this paper for full processing description. The simulation experiments are manipulated on environmental information, processing information and product quality information by the coloured Petri Net. Eventually, the conclusion turns out precisely as such that the coloured Petri Net conclusive for information classification and information transmission while integrated information management is available of efficient risk identification and decision-making system in supply chain of perishable products. Meanwhile, the validity of evaluating management and shelf-life estimation of perishable products are technically feasible.

  8. Risk-informed decision-making analysis for the electrical raceway fire barrier systems on a BWR-4 plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ching-Hui; Lin, Tsu-Jen; Kao, Tsu-Mu; Chen, Chyn-Rong

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a risk-informed decision-making approach used to resolve the fire barrier issue in a BWR-4 nuclear plant where Appendix R separation requirements cannot be met without installing additional fire protection features such as electrical raceway fire barrier system. The related risk measures in CDF (core damage frequency) and LERF (large early release frequency) of the fire barrier issue can be determined by calculating the difference in plant risks between various alternative cases and that met the requirement of the Appendix R. In some alternative cases, additional early-detection and fast-response fire suppression systems are suggested. In some other cases, cable re-routing of some improper layout of non-safety related cables are required. Sets of fire scenarios are re-evaluated more detailed by reviewing the cable damage impact for the BWR-4 plant. The fire hazard model, COMPBRM III-e, is used in this study and the dominant results in risk measures are benchmarked with the CFD code, FDS 2.0, to ensure that the risk impact of fire barrier is estimated accurately in the risk-informed decision making. The traditional deterministic qualitative methods, such as defense-in-depth, safety margin and post-fire safety shutdown capability are also proceeded. The value-impact analysis for proposed alternatives of fire wrapping required by Appendix R has been completed for technical basis of the exemption on Appendix R application. The outcome of the above analysis should be in compliance with the regulatory guidelines (RG) 1.174 and 1.189 for the applications in the risk-informed decision-making of the fire wrapping issues. (author)

  9. Panel discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1980-01-01

    The panel discussion at the 10th Allianz Forum on 'Technology and Insurance' dealt with the following topics: New technologies: energy conversion (coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy, solar energy); infrastructure (transport, data processing); basic products (metallic materials, chemical products, pharmaceutical products); integrated products (microprocessors, production line machines) as well as new risks: political; general economic (financing, market structure); insurance-related, dangers to persons and property; reduction of risks. (orig.) [de

  10. Non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making: a major challenge to evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajjaj, F M; Salek, M S; Basra, M K A; Finlay, A Y

    2010-05-01

    This article reviews an aspect of daily clinical practice which is of critical importance in virtually every clinical consultation, but which is seldom formally considered. Non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making profoundly affect medical decisions. These influences include patient-related factors such as socioeconomic status, quality of life and patient's expectations and wishes, physician-related factors such as personal characteristics and interaction with their professional community, and features of clinical practice such as private versus public practice as well as local management policies. This review brings together the different strands of knowledge concerning non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making. This aspect of decision-making may be the biggest obstacle to the reality of practising evidence-based medicine. It needs to be understood in order to develop clinical strategies that will facilitate the practice of evidence-based medicine.

  11. Broadening the debate on shale gas : guidelines for decision-making based on the Dutch experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waes, van A.H.M.; Vries, de A.; Est, van Q.C.; Brom, F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the debate on shale gas in the Netherlands. In the political decision-making process relating to shale gas, the national government has highlighted the importance of clarifying the opportunities and risks related to shale gas extraction, and the question of whether this is

  12. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ACCOUNTING PARADIGM IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN COMPANY MANAGEMENT (BASED ONIAS ACCOUNTING PRACTICES IN POLAND AND OTHER COUNTRIES)

    OpenAIRE

    Leszek Michalczyk

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we analyze the relations between modern trends in accounting and the decisionmaking process based on the classic profit-opportunity-cost-risk construction. In this aspect, four main types of accounting practices may be distinguished: bookkeeping (classic accounting), accounting engineering, creative accounting, and praxeological accounting. This study complements the author's series of publications on accounting engineering (which is herein defined as a concept), the structur...

  13. Decision-Making in Pediatric Transport Team Dispatch Using Script Concordance Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajapreyar, Prakadeshwari; Marcdante, Karen; Zhang, Liyun; Simpson, Pippa; Meyer, Michael T

    2017-11-01

    Our objective was to compare decision-making in dispatching pediatric transport teams by Medical Directors of pediatric transport teams (serving as experts) to that of Pediatric Intensivists and Critical Care fellows who often serve as Medical Control physicians. Understanding decision-making around team composition and dispatch could impact clinical management, cost effectiveness, and educational needs. Survey was developed using Script Concordance Testing guidelines. The survey contained 15 transport case vignettes covering 20 scenarios (45 questions). Eleven scenarios assessed impact of intrinsic patient factors (e.g., procedural needs), whereas nine assessed extrinsic factors (e.g., weather). Pediatric Critical Care programs accredited by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (the United States). Pediatric Intensivists and senior Critical Care fellows at Pediatric Critical Care programs were the target population with Transport Medical Directors serving as the expert panel. None. Survey results were scored per Script Concordance Testing guidelines. Concordance within groups was assessed using simple percentage agreement. There was little concordance in decision-making by Transport Medical Directors (median Script Concordance Testing percentage score [interquartile range] of 33.9 [30.4-37.3]). In addition, there was no statistically significant difference between the median Script Concordance Testing scores among the senior fellows and Pediatric Intensivists (31.1 [29.6-33.2] vs 29.7 [28.3-32.3], respectively; p = 0.12). Transport Medical Directors were more concordant on reasoning involving intrinsic patient factors rather than extrinsic factors (10/21 vs 4/24). Our study demonstrates pediatric transport team dispatch decision-making discordance by pediatric critical care physicians of varying levels of expertise and experience. Script Concordance Testing at a local level may better elucidate standards in medical decision-making within

  14. Does Gender Matter in the Relationship between Anxiety and Decision-Making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenghua Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing debate about whether and how anxiety level affects behavioral performance in risk and/or ambiguous decision-making. According to the literature, we suggest that gender difference might be a confounding factor that has contributed to heterogeneous findings in previous studies. To examine this idea, 135 students who participated in this study were divided into six groups according to their gender (male/female and trait anxiety level (high/medium/low; measured by the Trait form of Spielberger’s State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. All groups finished the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT for ambiguous decision-making, and the Game of Dice Task (GDT for risk decision-making. Behavioral results revealed that the IGT but not the GDT showed an interaction between anxiety and gender. Specifically, men outperformed women in the IGT, but only when their trait anxiety levels were low. Meanwhile, the GDT showed a main effect of anxiety grouping, such that low anxious participants were more risk-seeking than their medium anxious counterparts. These findings indicate that gender selectively modulates the influence of anxiety on ambiguous decision-making, but not risk decision-making. The theoretical and practical implications of the current findings are discussed.

  15. Decision-Making for Risk Management in Sustainable Renewable Energy Facilities: A Case Study in the Dominican Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido C. Guerrero-Liquet

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Today, Renewable Energy Sources (RES are a key pillar to achieving sustainable development, which is the main reason why energy projects are being carried out not only in developed countries but also in many emerging countries. Since the technical and financial risk remains a major barrier to financing renewable energy projects, several mechanisms are available to reduce risks on investment into clean energy projects. This paper discusses risk management tools in solar photovoltaic facilities based on the guide to the Project Management (PMBOK Guide. To do this, a combination of different decision-making methodologies will be carried out. These methodologies enable to not only extract the knowledge by experts but also to know the causes and effects that help to make the best decision. In order to do so, techniques to seek information (Delphi and Checklist as well as diagram techniques such as cause and effect diagrams or Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT are applied. The categorization and prioritization of risks will be carried out through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Finally, a sensitivity analysis will allow for providing consistency to the obtained results. A real case in the Dominican Republic will also be presented as case study.

  16. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  17. Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira

    2014-07-01

    A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  18. A Model of Decision-Making Based on Critical Thinking

    OpenAIRE

    Uluçınar, Ufuk; Aypay, Ahmet

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationships between high school students' inquisitiveness, open-mindedness, causal thinking, and rational and intuitive decision-making dispositions through an assumed model based on research data. This study was designed in correlational model. Confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis, which are structural equation modelling applications, were used to explain these relationships. The participants were 404 students studying in five high s...

  19. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  20. A Bootstrap Neural Network Based Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Test: Application to Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Christian de Peretti; Carole Siani; Mario Cerrato

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a bootstrap artificial neural network based panel unit root test in a dynamic heterogeneous panel context. An application to a panel of bilateral real exchange rate series with the US Dollar from the 20 major OECD countries is provided to investigate the Purchase Power Parity (PPP). The combination of neural network and bootstrapping significantly changes the findings of the economic study in favour of PPP.

  1. Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taillandier, F. [Departement TIDS, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Batiment, 06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Laboratoire Optimisation de la conception et Ingenierie de l' environnement, Polytech' Savoie, Universite de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du lac (France)], E-mail: franck.taillandier@univ-savoie.fr; Sauce, G. [Laboratoire Optimisation de la conception et Ingenierie de l' environnement, Polytech' Savoie, Universite de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du lac (France); Bonetto, R. [Departement TIDS, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Batiment, 06904 Sophia Antipolis (France)

    2009-04-15

    Due to his or her profession, any building facility manager has to face many decision-making situations. One of the most important to be mentioned is the arbitration of a multi-year maintenance plan for buildings. Deciding between proposed maintenance actions, according to several constraints, so as to aim at satisfying corporate strategy is a complex choice. Risk approaches can be particularly effective because of their ability to handle complexity and uncertainties. The problem is then to be able to propose a method considering risks, adapted to the specific context of building facility management. Our method, regarded as a traditional approach, includes needed resources (i.e. costs) according to constraints (i.e. budget), but it also considers several risk domains (safety, technical preservation, client satisfaction, etc.), through the consequences (gain and loss). It proposes an ergonomic arbitration system based on filters following two complementary approaches: a selection of the fundamental actions and then an optimization of the plan (in a global view). The aim, for decision-makers, is to build their own solution by testing multiple angles of vision in simulation logic. This article presents the principles of the method, illustrated by an example of a real case conducted for a leading French company.

  2. Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taillandier, F.; Sauce, G.; Bonetto, R.

    2009-01-01

    Due to his or her profession, any building facility manager has to face many decision-making situations. One of the most important to be mentioned is the arbitration of a multi-year maintenance plan for buildings. Deciding between proposed maintenance actions, according to several constraints, so as to aim at satisfying corporate strategy is a complex choice. Risk approaches can be particularly effective because of their ability to handle complexity and uncertainties. The problem is then to be able to propose a method considering risks, adapted to the specific context of building facility management. Our method, regarded as a traditional approach, includes needed resources (i.e. costs) according to constraints (i.e. budget), but it also considers several risk domains (safety, technical preservation, client satisfaction, etc.), through the consequences (gain and loss). It proposes an ergonomic arbitration system based on filters following two complementary approaches: a selection of the fundamental actions and then an optimization of the plan (in a global view). The aim, for decision-makers, is to build their own solution by testing multiple angles of vision in simulation logic. This article presents the principles of the method, illustrated by an example of a real case conducted for a leading French company

  3. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  4. Decision-making deficits in pathological gambling: the role of executive functions, explicit knowledge and impulsivity in relation to decisions made under ambiguity and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Cristian; Alvarez-Moya, Eva M; Penelo, Eva; Aymami, M Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Granero, Roser; Vallejo-Ruiloba, Julio; Menchón, José Manuel; Lawrence, Natalia S; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

    2013-01-01

    A variety of cognitive and emotional processes influence the decision-making deficits observed in pathological gambling (PG). This study investigated the role of immediate/delayed sensitivity to reward and punishment, executive functions, impulsivity and explicit knowledge in relation to decision-making performance on the original Iowa Gambling Task (IGT-ABCD) and a variant (IGT-EFGH). We assessed 131 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of PG by using executive functioning and decision-making tasks, self-report measures of impulsivity and explicit knowledge. The majority of pathological gamblers (PGs) showed deficits in decision-making, characterized mainly by myopia for the future. Decisions made under risk showed different predictors. Performance on the IGT-ABCD for decisions made under risk was predicted by medium and high levels of explicit knowledge of the task, as well as by scores on the Disorderliness subscale and the degree of Stroop interference. By contrast, IGT-EFGH results were only associated with self-report impulsivity measures. Decision making in PG involves distinct patterns of deficits, and the predictors differ depending on the reinforcement schedule. Decisions made under risk on the IGT-ABCD are associated with explicit knowledge, executive functions and impulsivity traits related to conscious awareness and control processes. On the IGT-EFGH, however, only impulsivity traits predict decision making. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  5. Solar panel truss mounting systems and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Haddad, Tristan Farris; Cavieres, Andres; Gentry, Russell; Goodman, Joseph; Nolan, Wade; Pitelka, Taylor; Rahimzadeh, Keyan; Brooks, Bradley; Lohr, Joshua; Crooks, Ryan; Porges, Jamie; Rubin, Daniel

    2016-06-28

    An exemplary embodiment of the present invention provides a solar panel truss mounting system comprising a base and a truss assembly coupled to the base. The truss assembly comprises a first panel rail mount, second panel rail mount parallel to the first panel rail mount, base rail mount parallel to the first and second panel rail mounts, and a plurality of support members. A first portion of the plurality of support members extends between the first and second panel rail mounts. A second portion of the plurality of support members extends between the first panel rail mount and the base rail mount. A third portion of the plurality of support members extends between the second panel rail mount and the base rail mount. The system can further comprise a plurality of connectors for coupling a plurality of photovoltaic solar panels to the truss assembly.

  6. Solar panel truss mounting systems and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Haddad, Tristan Farris; Cavieres, Andres; Gentry, Russell; Goodman, Joseph; Nolan, Wade; Pitelka, Taylor; Rahimzadeh, Keyan; Brooks, Bradley; Lohr, Joshua; Crooks, Ryan; Porges, Jamie; Rubin, Daniel

    2018-01-30

    An exemplary embodiment of the present invention provides a solar panel truss mounting system comprising a base and a truss assembly coupled to the base. The truss assembly comprises a first panel rail mount, second panel rail mount parallel to the first panel rail mount, base rail mount parallel to the first and second panel rail mounts, and a plurality of support members. A first portion of the plurality of support members extends between the first and second panel rail mounts. A second portion of the plurality of support members extends between the first panel rail mount and the base rail mount. A third portion of the plurality of support members extends between the second panel rail mount and the base rail mount. The system can further comprise a plurality of connectors for coupling a plurality of photovoltaic solar panels to the truss assembly.

  7. Solar panel truss mounting systems and methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Haddad, Tristan Farris; Cavieres, Andres; Gentry, Russell; Goodman, Joseph; Nolan, Wade; Pitelka, Taylor; Rahimzadeh, Keyan; Brooks, Bradley; Lohr, Joshua; Crooks, Ryan; Porges, Jamie; Rubin, Daniel

    2015-10-20

    An exemplary embodiment of the present invention provides a solar panel truss mounting system comprising a base and a truss assembly coupled to the base. The truss assembly comprises a first panel rail mount, second panel rail mount parallel to the first panel rail mount, base rail mount parallel to the first and second panel rail mounts, and a plurality of support members. A first portion of the plurality of support members extends between the first and second panel rail mounts. A second portion of the plurality of support members extends between the first panel rail mount and the base rail mount. A third portion of the plurality of support members extends between the second panel rail mount and the base rail mount. The system can further comprise a plurality of connectors for coupling a plurality of photovoltaic solar panels to the truss assembly.

  8. Involving women in personalised decision-making on mode of delivery after caesarean section: the development and pilot testing of a patient decision aid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoorel, E N C; Vankan, E; Scheepers, H C J; Augustijn, B C C; Dirksen, C D; de Koning, M; van Kuijk, S M J; Kwee, A; Melman, S; Nijhuis, J G; Aardenburg, R; de Boer, K; Hasaart, T H M; Mol, B W J; Nieuwenhuijze, M; van Pampus, M G; van Roosmalen, J; Roumen, F J M E; de Vries, R; Wouters, M G A J; van der Weijden, T; Hermens, R P M G

    2014-01-01

    To develop a patient decision aid (PtDA) for mode of delivery after caesarean section that integrates personalised prediction of vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) with the elicitation of patient preferences and evidence-based information. A PtDA was developed and pilot tested using the International Patients Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) criteria. Obstetric health care in the Netherlands. A multidisciplinary steering group, an expert panel, and 25 future users of the PtDA, i.e. women with a previous caesarean section. The development consisted of a construction phase (definition of scope and purpose, and selection of content, framework, and format) and a pilot testing phase by interview. The process was supervised by a multidisciplinary steering group. Usability, clarity, and relevance. The construction phase resulted in a booklet including unbiased balanced information on mode of birth after caesarean section, a preference elicitation exercise, and tailored risk information, including a prediction model for successful VBAC. During pilot testing, visualisation of risks and clarity formed the main basis for revisions. Pilot testing showed the availability of tailored structured information to be the main factor involving women in decision-making. The PtDA meets 39 out of 50 IPDAS criteria (78%): 23 out of 23 criteria for content (100%) and 16 out of 20 criteria for the development process (80%). Criteria for effectiveness (n = 7) were not evaluated. An evidence-based PtDA was developed, with the probability of successful VBAC and the availability of structured information as key items. It is likely that the PtDA enhances the quality of decision-making on mode of birth after caesarean section. © 2013 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  9. Panel data analysis using EViews

    CERN Document Server

    Agung, I Gusti Ngurah

    2013-01-01

    A comprehensive and accessible guide to panel data analysis using EViews software This book explores the use of EViews software in creating panel data analysis using appropriate empirical models and real datasets. Guidance is given on developing alternative descriptive statistical summaries for evaluation and providing policy analysis based on pool panel data. Various alternative models based on panel data are explored, including univariate general linear models, fixed effect models and causal models, and guidance on the advantages and disadvantages of each one is given. Panel Data Analysis

  10. Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment

  11. Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartz, Steven R

    2009-05-01

    Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parameters correspond to various decision-making frameworks, and their correspondence to emotional and rational processes. Here, I review research suggesting that emotional processes encode in a precise quantitative manner the basic parameters of financial decision theory, indicating a reorientation of emotional and cognitive contributions to risky choice.

  12. Extended VIKOR Method for Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiattribute Decision-Making Based on a New Distance Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Luo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intuitionistic fuzzy VIKOR (IF-VIKOR method is proposed based on a new distance measure considering the waver of intuitionistic fuzzy information. The method aggregates all individual decision-makers’ assessment information based on intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator (IFWA, determines the weights of decision-makers and attributes objectively using intuitionistic fuzzy entropy, calculates the group utility and individual regret by the new distance measure, and then reaches a compromise solution. It can be effectively applied to multiattribute decision-making (MADM problems where the weights of decision-makers and attributes are completely unknown and the attribute values are intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. The validity and stability of this method are verified by example analysis and sensitivity analysis, and its superiority is illustrated by the comparison with the existing method.

  13. Epidemiology, natural history, and risk factors: panel report from the Ninth International Research Conference on Otitis Media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Kathleen A; Hoffman, Howard J; Kvaerner, Kari Jorunn

    2010-01-01

    The 2007 Recent Advances in Otitis Media Research Conference Panel Report provides an update on otitis media (OM) research published from 2003 to 2007. This report summarizes important trends in disease incidence and prevalence, describes established and newly identified risk factors for acute...

  14. Development of the Risk-Based Inspection Techniques and Pilot Plant Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    Risk-based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants. System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the probabilistic risk analysis or probabilistic safety analysis developed to meet the individual plant evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for maintenance rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low-risk significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of pilot plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates that safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. The reduction in inspection reduces the person-rem exposure resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publication by the ASME CRTD

  15. Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    This report covers the activities of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) for calendar year 1998-a year of sharp contrasts and significant successes at NASA. The year opened with the announcement of large workforce cutbacks. The slip in the schedule for launching the International Space Station (ISS) created a five-month hiatus in Space Shuttle launches. This slack period ended with the successful and highly publicized launch of the STS-95 mission. As the year closed, ISS assembly began with the successful orbiting and joining of the Functional Cargo Block (FGB), Zarya, from Russia and the Unity Node from the United States. Throughout the year, the Panel maintained its scrutiny of NASA's safety processes. Of particular interest were the potential effects on safety of workforce reductions and the continued transition of functions to the Space Flight Operations Contractor. Attention was also given to the risk management plans of the Aero-Space Technology programs, including the X-33, X-34, and X-38. Overall, the Panel concluded that safety is well served for the present. The picture is not as clear for the future. Cutbacks have limited the depth of talent available. In many cases, technical specialties are 'one deep.' The extended hiring freeze has resulted in an older workforce that will inevitably suffer significant departures from retirements in the near future. The resulting 'brain drain' could represent a future safety risk unless appropriate succession planning is started expeditiously. This and other topics are covered in the section addressing workforce. The major NASA programs are also limited in their ability to plan property for the future. This is of particular concern for the Space Shuttle and ISS because these programs are scheduled to operate well into the next century. In the case of the Space Shuttle, beneficial and mandatory safety and operational upgrades are being delayed because of a lack of sufficient present funding. Likewise, the ISS has

  16. Panel 5: Microbiology and Immunology Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Timothy F.; Chonmaitree, Tasnee; Barenkamp, Stephen; Kyd, Jennelle; Nokso-Koivisto, Johanna; Patel, Janak A.; Heikkinen, Terho; Yamanaka, Noboru; Ogra, Pearay; Swords, W. Edward; Sih, Tania; Pettigrew, Melinda M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The objective is to perform a comprehensive review of the literature from January 2007 through June 2011 on the virology, bacteriology, and immunology related to otitis media. Data Sources PubMed database of the National Library of Medicine. Review Methods Three subpanels with co-chairs comprising experts in the virology, bacteriology, and immunology of otitis media were formed. Each of the panels reviewed the literature in their respective fields and wrote draft reviews. The reviews were shared with all panel members, and a second draft was created. The entire panel met at the 10th International Symposium on Recent Advances in Otitis Media in June 2011 and discussed the review and refined the content further. A final draft was created, circulated, and approved by the panel. Conclusion Excellent progress has been made in the past 4 years in advancing an understanding of the microbiology and immunology of otitis media. Advances include laboratory-based basic studies, cell-based assays, work in animal models, and clinical studies. Implications for Practice The advances of the past 4 years formed the basis of a series of short-term and long-term research goals in an effort to guide the field. Accomplishing these goals will provide opportunities for the development of novel interventions, including new ways to better treat and prevent otitis media. PMID:23536533

  17. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth

    2018-01-01

    Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...

  18. Risk-taking and risky decision-making in Internet gaming disorder: Implications regarding online gaming in the setting of negative consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Guangheng; Potenza, Marc N

    2016-02-01

    Individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) continue gaming despite adverse consequences. However, the precise mechanism underlying this behavior remains unknown. In this study, data from 20 IGD subjects and 16 otherwise comparable healthy control subjects (HCs) were recorded and compared when they were undergoing risk-taking and risky decision-making during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). During risk-taking and as compared to HCs, IGD subjects selected more risk-disadvantageous trials and demonstrated less activation of the anterior cingulate, posterior cingulate and middle temporal gyrus. During risky decision-making and as compared to HCs, IGD subjects showed shorter response times and less activations of the inferior frontal and superior temporal gyri. Taken together, data suggest that IGD subjects show impaired executive control in selecting risk-disadvantageous choices, and they make risky decisions more hastily and with less recruitment of regions implicated in impulse control. These results suggest a possible neurobiological underpinning for why IGD subjects may exhibit poor control over their game-seeking behaviors even when encountering negative consequences and provide possible therapeutic targets for interventions in this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Use of evidence-based management in healthcare administration decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ruiling; Berkshire, Steven D; Fulton, Lawrence V; Hermanson, Patrick M

    2017-07-03

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether healthcare leaders use evidence-based management (EBMgt) when facing major decisions and what types of evidence healthcare administrators consult during their decision-making. This study also intends to identify any relationship that might exist among adoption of EBMgt in healthcare management, attitudes towards EBMgt, demographic characteristics and organizational characteristics. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional study was conducted among US healthcare leaders. Spearman's correlation and logistic regression were performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 23.0. Findings One hundred and fifty-four healthcare leaders completed the survey. The study results indicated that 90 per cent of the participants self-reported having used an EBMgt approach for decision-making. Professional experiences (87 per cent), organizational data (84 per cent) and stakeholders' values (63 per cent) were the top three types of evidence consulted daily and weekly for decision-making. Case study (75 per cent) and scientific research findings (75 per cent) were the top two types of evidence consulted monthly or less than once a month. An exploratory, stepwise logistic regression model correctly classified 75.3 per cent of all observations for a dichotomous "use of EBMgt" response variable using three independent variables: attitude towards EBMgt, number of employees in the organization and the job position. Spearman's correlation indicated statistically significant relationships between healthcare leaders' use of EBMgt and healthcare organization bed size ( r s = 0.217, n = 152, p employees ( r s = 0.195, n = 152, p = 0.016). Originality/value This study generated new research findings on the practice of EBMgt in US healthcare administration decision-making.

  20. Cost-benefit considerations in regulatory decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board is investigating the feasibility of developing methods for factoring cost-benefit considerations into its regulatory decision-making. This initiative results, in part, from the federal government policy requiring cost-benefit considerations to be taken into account in regulatory processes, and from the recommendations of an Advisory Panel on Regulatory Review in 1993, submitted to the Minister of Natural Resources Canada. One of these recommendations stated: 'that mechanisms be developed to examine cost-benefit issues and work towards some consensus of opinion among stakeholders; a task force on the subject could be an appropriate starting point'. (author)

  1. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J.; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behav...

  2. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  3. Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, P.-F.; Lee, C.-C.

    2007-01-01

    For the first time, a new panel unit root testing procedure, developed by [51]Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [2005. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal 8, 159-175], is applied to re-investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971-2002 period. With structural breaks and cross-sectional correlations introduced into the model, it becomes clear that all regional-based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary. The structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists

  4. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  5. Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Grau-Moya

    Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

  6. Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

    2018-05-01

    Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

  7. WATER VAPOUR PERMEABILITY PROPERTIES OF CELLULAR WOOD MATERIAL AND CONDENSATION RISK OF COMPOSITE PANEL WALLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janis IEJAVS

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Invention of light weight cellular wood material (CWM with a trade mark of Dendrolight is one of innovations in wood industry of the last decade. The aim of the research was to define the water vapour permeability properties of CWM and to analyse the condensation risk of various wall envelopes where solid wood cellular material is used. To determine the water vapour permeability of CWM, test samples were produced in the factory using routine production technology and tested according to the standard EN 12086:2014. Water vapour permeability factor (μ and other properties of six different configurations of CWM samples were determined. Using the experimental data the indicative influence of geometrical parameters such as lamella thickness, number of lamellas and material direction were investigated and evaluated. To study the condensation risk within the wall envelope containing CWM calculation method given in LVS EN ISO 13788:2012 was used. To ease the calculation process previously developed JavaScript calculation software that had only capability to calculate thermal transmittance was extended so that condensation risk in multi-layer composite walls can be analysed. Water vapour permeability factor in CWM is highly direction dependant. If parallel and perpendicular direction of CWM is compared the value of water vapour permeability factor can differentiate more than two times. Another significant factor for condensation risk analysis is overall thickness of CWM since it directly influences the equivalent air layer thickness. The influence of other factors such as lamella thickness, or groove depth is minor when water vapour permeability properties are compared. From the analysis of CWM performance in building envelope it can be concluded that uninsulated CWM panels used during winter months will pose the risk of condensation damage to structure, but the risk can be reduced or prevented if insulation layer is applied to the CWM panel wall

  8. Decision-making on an explicit risk-taking task in preadolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drechsler, R; Rizzo, P; Steinhausen, H-C

    2008-01-01

    Inappropriate risk-taking and disadvantageous decision-making have been described as major behavioural characteristics of patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However these behaviours are difficult to measure in laboratory contexts and recent studies have yielded inconsistent results which might be related to task characteristics. The present study adopted the Game of Dice Task, a test procedure in which risks are made explicit and the load on working memory is minimal. As a result, preadolescents with ADHD (N = 23) made significantly more risky choices and suffered major losses of money compared to normal controls (N = 24) but only when they played the game a second time. Differences in risk-taking correlated significantly with hyperactivity as rated by parents and with inhibitory control, but not with working memory performance. The results are discussed in the context of current theories of ADHD.

  9. Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Financial Decision-making by Older Adults: Results from a Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Ficker, Lisa J; Gross, Evan; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Teresi, Jeanne A

    2018-01-01

    The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to empirically test the conceptual model proposed by the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS); (2) to examine the psychometric properties of the LFDRS contextual factors in financial decision-making by investigating both the reliability and convergent validity of the subscales and total scale, and (3) extending previous work on the scale through the collection of normative data on financial decision-making. A convenience sample of 200 independent function and community dwelling older adults underwent cognitive and financial management testing and were interviewed using the LFDRS. Confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency measures, and hierarchical regression were used in a sample of 200 community-dwelling older adults, all of whom were making or had recently made a significant financial decision. Results confirmed the scale's reliability and supported the conceptual model. Convergent validity analyses indicate that as hypothesized, cognition is a significant predictor of risk scores. Financial management scores, however, were not predictive of decision-making risk scores. The psychometric properties of the LFDRS support the scale's use as it was proposed. The LFDRS instructions and scale are provided for clinicians to use in financial capacity assessments.

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  11. Modulating the Activity of the DLPFC and OFC Has Distinct Effects on Risk and Ambiguity Decision-Making: A tDCS Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolan Yang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Human beings are constantly exposed to two types of uncertainty situations, risk and ambiguity. Neuroscientific studies suggest that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC and the orbital frontal cortex (OFC play significant roles in human decision making under uncertainty. We applied the transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS device to modulate the activity of participants’ DLPFC and OFC separately, comparing the causal relationships between people’s behaviors and the activity of the corresponding brain cortex when confronted with situations of risk and ambiguity. Our experiment employed a pre–post design and a risk/ambiguity decision-making task, from which we could calculate the preferences via an estimation model. We found evidences that modulating the activity of the DLPFC using right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly enhanced the participants’ preferences for risk, whereas modulating the activity of the OFC with right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the participants’ preferences for ambiguity. The reverse effects were also observed in the reversed tDCS treatments on the two areas. Our results suggest that decision-making processes under risk and ambiguity are complicated and may be encoded in two distinct circuits in our brains as the DLPFC primarily impacts decisions under risk whereas the OFC affects ambiguity.

  12. Modulating the Activity of the DLPFC and OFC Has Distinct Effects on Risk and Ambiguity Decision-Making: A tDCS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaolan; Gao, Mei; Shi, Jinchuan; Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu

    2017-01-01

    Human beings are constantly exposed to two types of uncertainty situations, risk and ambiguity. Neuroscientific studies suggest that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the orbital frontal cortex (OFC) play significant roles in human decision making under uncertainty. We applied the transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) device to modulate the activity of participants' DLPFC and OFC separately, comparing the causal relationships between people's behaviors and the activity of the corresponding brain cortex when confronted with situations of risk and ambiguity. Our experiment employed a pre-post design and a risk/ambiguity decision-making task, from which we could calculate the preferences via an estimation model. We found evidences that modulating the activity of the DLPFC using right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly enhanced the participants' preferences for risk, whereas modulating the activity of the OFC with right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the participants' preferences for ambiguity. The reverse effects were also observed in the reversed tDCS treatments on the two areas. Our results suggest that decision-making processes under risk and ambiguity are complicated and may be encoded in two distinct circuits in our brains as the DLPFC primarily impacts decisions under risk whereas the OFC affects ambiguity.

  13. A New Decision-Making Method for Stock Portfolio Selection Based on Computing with Linguistic Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Tung Chen

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock portfolio selection is how to allocate the capital to a large number of stocks in order to bring a most profitable return for investors. In most of past literatures, experts considered the portfolio of selection problem only based on past crisp or quantitative data. However, many qualitative and quantitative factors will influence the stock portfolio selection in real investment situation. It is very important for experts or decision-makers to use their experience or knowledge to predict the performance of each stock and make a stock portfolio. Because of the knowledge, experience, and background of each expert are different and vague, different types of 2-tuple linguistic variable are suitable used to express experts' opinions for the performance evaluation of each stock with respect to criteria. According to the linguistic evaluations of experts, the linguistic TOPSIS and linguistic ELECTRE methods are combined to present a new decision-making method for dealing with stock selection problems in this paper. Once the investment set has been determined, the risk preferences of investor are considered to calculate the investment ratio of each stock in the investment set. Finally, an example is implemented to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed method.

  14. Composite fuselage crown panel manufacturing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willden, Kurtis; Metschan, S.; Grant, C.; Brown, T.

    1992-01-01

    Commercial fuselage structures contain significant challenges in attempting to save manufacturing costs with advanced composite technology. Assembly issues, material costs, and fabrication of elements with complex geometry are each expected to drive the cost of composite fuselage structures. Boeing's efforts under the NASA ACT program have pursued key technologies for low-cost, large crown panel fabrication. An intricate bond panel design and manufacturing concepts were selected based on the efforts of the Design Build Team (DBT). The manufacturing processes selected for the intricate bond design include multiple large panel fabrication with the Advanced Tow Placement (ATP) process, innovative cure tooling concepts, resin transfer molding of long fuselage frames, and utilization of low-cost material forms. The process optimization for final design/manufacturing configuration included factory simulations and hardware demonstrations. These efforts and other optimization tasks were instrumental in reducing cost by 18 percent and weight by 45 percent relative to an aluminum baseline. The qualitative and quantitative results of the manufacturing demonstrations were used to assess manufacturing risks and technology readiness.

  15. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

  16. "It was an Emotional Baby": Previvors' Family Planning Decision-Making Styles about Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah; Rauscher, Emily A

    2017-12-01

    Women who test positive for a BRCA genetic mutation are at an increased risk for developing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer and have a 50% chance of passing on their genetic mutation to their children. The purpose of this study was to investigate how women who test positive for a BRCA mutation but have not been diagnosed with cancer make decisions regarding family planning. Analysis of interviews with 20 women revealed they engage in logical and emotional decision-making styles. Although women want to be logical to reduce their hereditary cancer risk, emotions often complicate their decision-making. Women experience fear and worry about a future cancer diagnosis, yet also desire to create a family, particularly having children through natural conception. That is, women negotiate having preventative surgeries in a logical doctor-recommended timeframe but also organize those decisions around emotional desires of motherhood. Overall, this study demonstrates the complex decisions women who test positive for a BRCA mutation must make in regards to genetic testing timing, family planning, and overall quality of life.

  17. A novel strategy to increase separated electron-hole dipoles in commercial Si based solar panel to assist photovoltaic effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yefeng; He, Cheng-En; Xu, Zhichao; Hu, Jianbing; Peng, Cheng

    2018-01-01

    Interface induced polarization has been found to have a significant impact on dielectric properties of 2-2 type polymer composites bearing Si based semi-conducting ceramic sheets. Inherent overall polarity of polymer layers in 2-2 composites has been verified to be closely connected with interface effect and achieved permittivity in composites. In present work, conducting performances of monocrystalline Si sheets coated by varied high polarity material layers were deeply researched. The positive results inspired us to propose a novel strategy to improve separated electron-hole dipoles in commercial Si based solar cell panel for assisting photovoltaic effect, based on strong interface induced polarization. Conducting features of solar panels coated by two different high polarity polymer layers were detected to be greatly elevated compared with solar panel standalone, thanks to interface induced polarization between panel and polymer. Polymer coating with higher polarity would lead to more separated electron-hole dipole pairs in solar panel contributing to higher conductivity of panel. Valid synergy of interface effect and photovoltaic effect was based on their unidirectional traits of electron transfer. Dielectric properties of solar panels in composites further confirmed that strategy. This work might provide a facile route to prepare promising Si based solar panels with higher photoelectric conversion efficiency by enhancing interface induced polarization between panel and polymer coating.

  18. Expected Utility and Entropy-Based Decision-Making Model for Large Consumers in the Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingtuan Gao

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, large consumers can procure electricity energy from various power sources to meet their load demands. To maximize its profit, each large consumer needs to decide their energy procurement strategy under risks such as price fluctuations from the spot market and power quality issues. In this paper, an electric energy procurement decision-making model is studied for large consumers who can obtain their electric energy from the spot market, generation companies under bilateral contracts, the options market and self-production facilities in the smart grid. Considering the effect of unqualified electric energy, the profit model of large consumers is formulated. In order to measure the risks from the price fluctuations and power quality, the expected utility and entropy is employed. Consequently, the expected utility and entropy decision-making model is presented, which helps large consumers to minimize their expected profit of electricity procurement while properly limiting the volatility of this cost. Finally, a case study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

  19. Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

    2015-04-01

    Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

  20. Panel Session

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertelsen, Olav Wedege

    2004-01-01

    In this panel session, four researchers will discuss the role of a theoretical foundation, in particular AT, in the design of information technology based artefacts. The general discussion will take of from a specific examination of the ActAD approach.......In this panel session, four researchers will discuss the role of a theoretical foundation, in particular AT, in the design of information technology based artefacts. The general discussion will take of from a specific examination of the ActAD approach....

  1. Neural correlates of conventional and harm/welfare-based moral decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Stuart F; Zhao, Hui; Leong, Kelly Kimiko; Smetana, Judith G; Nucci, Larry P; Blair, R James R

    2017-12-01

    The degree to which social norms are processed by a unitary system or dissociable systems remains debated. Much research on children's social-cognitive judgments has supported the distinction between "moral" (harm/welfare-based) and "conventional" norms. However, the extent to which these norms are processed by dissociable neural systems remains unclear. To address this issue, 23 healthy participants were scanned with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while they rated the wrongness of harm/welfare-based and conventional transgressions and neutral vignettes. Activation significantly greater than the neutral vignette baseline was observed in regions implicated in decision-making regions including rostral/ventral medial frontal, anterior insula and dorsomedial frontal cortices when evaluating both harm/welfare-based and social-conventional transgressions. Greater activation when rating harm/welfare-based relative to social-conventional transgressions was seen through much of ACC and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus. Greater activation was observed in superior temporal gyrus, bilateral middle temporal gyrus, left PCC, and temporal-parietal junction when rating social-conventional transgressions relative to harm/welfare-based transgressions. These data suggest that decisions regarding the wrongness of actions, irrespective of whether they involve care/harm-based or conventional transgressions, recruit regions generally implicated in affect-based decision-making. However, there is neural differentiation between harm/welfare-based and conventional transgressions. This may reflect the particular importance of processing the intent of transgressors of conventional norms and perhaps the greater emotional content or salience of harm/welfare-based transgressions.

  2. Routine Outcome Monitoring and Clinical Decision-Making in Forensic Psychiatry Based on the Instrument for Forensic Treatment Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Veeken, Frida C A; Lucieer, Jacques; Bogaerts, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Rehabilitation in forensic psychiatry is achieved gradually with different leave modules, in line with the Risk Need Responsivity model. A forensic routine outcome monitoring tool should measure treatment progress based on the rehabilitation theory, and it should be predictive of important treatment outcomes in order to be usable in decision-making. Therefore, this study assesses the predictive validity for both positive (i.e., leave) and negative (i.e., inpatient incidents) treatment outcomes with the Instrument for Forensic Treatment Evaluation (IFTE). Two-hundred and twenty-four patients were included in this study. ROC analyses were conducted with the IFTE factors and items for three leave modules: guided, unguided and transmural leave for the whole group of patients. Predictive validity of the IFTE for aggression in general, physical aggression specifically, and urine drug screening (UDS) violations was assessed for patients with the main diagnoses in Dutch forensic psychiatry, patients with personality disorders and the most frequently occurring co-morbid disorders: those with combined personality and substance use disorders. Results tentatively imply that the IFTE has a reasonable to good predictive validity for inpatient aggression and a marginal to reasonable predictive value for leave approvals and UDS violations. The IFTE can be used for information purposes in treatment decision-making, but reports should be interpreted with care and acknowledge patients' personal risk factors, strengths and other information sources.

  3. The Pink Underside: The Commercialization of Medical Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Tools for Hereditary Breast Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; Flynn, Bailey; Farrelly, Keeva

    2018-04-01

    The growth of the Internet since the millennium has opened up a myriad of opportunities for education, particularly in medicine. Although those looking for health care information used to have to turn to a face-to-face doctor's visit, an immense library of medical advice is now available at their fingertips. The BRCA genetic predispositions (mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 breast cancer genes) which expose men and women to greater risk of breast, ovarian, and other cancers can be researched extensively online. Several nonprofit organizations now offer online risk assessment and decision-making tools meant to supplement conversation with medical professionals, which in actuality are quickly replacing it. We argue here through a critical qualitative template analysis of several such tools that the discursive frameworks utilized are prone to fearmongering, commercialization, and questionable validity. Left unchecked, these assessment tools could do more harm than good in driving young women especially to take unnecessary extreme surgical action.

  4. Extreme Learning Machine and Moving Least Square Regression Based Solar Panel Vision Inspection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, learning based machine intelligence has aroused a lot of attention across science and engineering. Particularly in the field of automatic industry inspection, the machine learning based vision inspection plays a more and more important role in defect identification and feature extraction. Through learning from image samples, many features of industry objects, such as shapes, positions, and orientations angles, can be obtained and then can be well utilized to determine whether there is defect or not. However, the robustness and the quickness are not easily achieved in such inspection way. In this work, for solar panel vision inspection, we present an extreme learning machine (ELM and moving least square regression based approach to identify solder joint defect and detect the panel position. Firstly, histogram peaks distribution (HPD and fractional calculus are applied for image preprocessing. Then an ELM-based defective solder joints identification is discussed in detail. Finally, moving least square regression (MLSR algorithm is introduced for solar panel position determination. Experimental results and comparisons show that the proposed ELM and MLSR based inspection method is efficient not only in detection accuracy but also in processing speed.

  5. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

  6. Factors influencing risky decision-making in patients with cerebral infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Wu, Bing; Feng, Jun; Zhang, Weiwei; Wang, Shijie; Huang, Yonghua; Wu, Xinhuai

    2015-01-01

    Numerous studies have found that the framing effect is common in medical scenarios, but few studies have examined the influence of the framing effect upon thrombolytic therapy for cerebral infarction. In this study, 1040 inpatients and outpatients in the department of neurology were recruited to explore whether there is a framing effect in decision-making within thrombolytic therapy, and if so, which factors influence that effect. The findings from Study 1 indicate that the framing effect occurred in patients both with and without cerebral infarction (χ(2) = 7.90, p = .005; χ(2) = 5.16, p = .023, respectively), with both groups displaying risk-seeking behavior (thrombolytic therapy) in the positive frame and no risk aversion or risk seeking in the negative frame. The results of Study 2 show that the patients preferred risk seeking in both collaborative and individual decision-making. In the collaborative decision-making group, the patients in the senior group showed the framing effect (χ(2) = 5.35, p frame (G) showing more significant risk seeking than both those in the negative frame (H) and those in the other positive frame (A, C, and E). In summary, decision-making about thrombolytic therapy in patients with cerebral infarction is influenced by the framing effect, and some influencing factors should be attended in clinical practice. Further research is necessary to guide the treatment of cerebral infarction.

  7. Tools for collaborative decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Zaraté, Pascale

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

  8. RECIPANEL: RECYCLED PAPER PANELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HERNÁN CAÑOLA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se estudia la fabricación y el comportamiento mecánico de paneles a base de papel reciclado. El objetivo principal del proyecto es producir un prototipo de panel que emplee elementos provenientes de residuos sólidos (papel periódico y de un material conglomerante (cemento Portland blanco. El panel debe ser económico, debe tener buenas propiedades mecánicas y debe tener dimensiones comerciales para su uso en muros tabiques y en cielos falsos en la industria de la construcción. El Recipanel es un panel no estructural a base de papel reciclado. El Recipanel cumple las normas colombianas en lo relativo a los paneles de uso no estructural y presenta además unas excelentes características mecánicas.

  9. Insular neural system controls decision-making in healthy and methamphetamine-treated rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizoguchi, Hiroyuki; Katahira, Kentaro; Inutsuka, Ayumu; Fukumoto, Kazuya; Nakamura, Akihiro; Wang, Tian; Nagai, Taku; Sato, Jun; Sawada, Makoto; Ohira, Hideki; Yamanaka, Akihiro; Yamada, Kiyofumi

    2015-07-21

    Patients suffering from neuropsychiatric disorders such as substance-related and addictive disorders exhibit altered decision-making patterns, which may be associated with their behavioral abnormalities. However, the neuronal mechanisms underlying such impairments are largely unknown. Using a gambling test, we demonstrated that methamphetamine (METH)-treated rats chose a high-risk/high-reward option more frequently and assigned higher value to high returns than control rats, suggestive of changes in decision-making choice strategy. Immunohistochemical analysis following the gambling test revealed aberrant activation of the insular cortex (INS) and nucleus accumbens in METH-treated animals. Pharmacological studies, together with in vivo microdialysis, showed that the insular neural system played a crucial role in decision-making. Moreover, manipulation of INS activation using designer receptor exclusively activated by designer drug technology resulted in alterations to decision-making. Our findings suggest that the INS is a critical region involved in decision-making and that insular neural dysfunction results in risk-taking behaviors associated with altered decision-making.

  10. Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

    2013-01-01

    In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

  11. Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Steelandt

    Full Text Available In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie. We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

  12. Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

    2013-01-01

    In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

  13. Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling

    OpenAIRE

    Quartz, Steven R.

    2009-01-01

    Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parame...

  14. Use of Internet panels to conduct surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ron D; Liu, Honghu; Kapteyn, Arie

    2015-09-01

    The use of Internet panels to collect survey data is increasing because it is cost-effective, enables access to large and diverse samples quickly, takes less time than traditional methods to obtain data for analysis, and the standardization of the data collection process makes studies easy to replicate. A variety of probability-based panels have been created, including Telepanel/CentERpanel, Knowledge Networks (now GFK KnowledgePanel), the American Life Panel, the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences panel, and the Understanding America Study panel. Despite the advantage of having a known denominator (sampling frame), the probability-based Internet panels often have low recruitment participation rates, and some have argued that there is little practical difference between opting out of a probability sample and opting into a nonprobability (convenience) Internet panel. This article provides an overview of both probability-based and convenience panels, discussing potential benefits and cautions for each method, and summarizing the approaches used to weight panel respondents in order to better represent the underlying population. Challenges of using Internet panel data are discussed, including false answers, careless responses, giving the same answer repeatedly, getting multiple surveys from the same respondent, and panelists being members of multiple panels. More is to be learned about Internet panels generally and about Web-based data collection, as well as how to evaluate data collected using mobile devices and social-media platforms.

  15. Flexible emotion-based decision-making behavior varies in current and former smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Zoe; O'Connor, Martin; Jollans, Emily K; O'Halloran, Laura; Dymond, Simon; Whelan, Robert

    2015-06-01

    Suboptimal decision-making is a feature in the initiation and maintenance of substance use, often manifested in choosing for short-term benefits rather than long-term gain, and the failure to display cognitive flexibility, respectively. Studies of nicotine users typically focus on characterizing those who are already addicted; less is known about decision-making in former smokers. Non- (n=21), former daily- (n=23) and current daily smokers (n=24), completed the contingency-shifting variant Iowa Gambling Task (csIGT), in which the reward and punishment contingencies of the decks are systematically varied after 100 trials of the 'standard' IGT. Scores on the standard blocks of the csIGT provided an index of emotion-based decision-making, while the contingency-shifting blocks assessed flexible decision-making. Subjective ratings were also recorded at 20-trial intervals. Both current and former smokers showed significantly impaired performance relative to non-smokers when making decisions during the standard blocks of the csIGT. Both former and non-smokers' awareness of the reward/punishment contingencies was significantly higher than those of current smokers at the end of the standard IGT. Both former and non-smokers had significantly better performance on the contingency shifting blocks, relative to current smokers. The findings indicate that both current and former smokers display a suboptimal pattern of decision-making than non-smokers during the standard IGT. However, with respect to the ability to change behavior following reversed contingencies, former smokers are more similar to non-smokers than to current smokers. Former smokers were also more aware of the contingencies than current smokers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: an examination of concurrent validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew M; Weller, Joshua A

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to committing decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate processes that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such process, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when EV favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when EV favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  17. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: An examination of concurrent validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules. Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate mechanisms that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC and one such mechanism, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV. Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a choosing risky options when expected value favors those options and (b avoiding risky options when expected value favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  18. The alcoholic brain: neural bases of impaired reward-based decision-making in alcohol use disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galandra, Caterina; Basso, Gianpaolo; Cappa, Stefano; Canessa, Nicola

    2018-03-01

    Neuroeconomics is providing insights into the neural bases of decision-making in normal and pathological conditions. In the neuropsychiatric domain, this discipline investigates how abnormal functioning of neural systems associated with reward processing and cognitive control promotes different disorders, and whether such evidence may inform treatments. This endeavor is crucial when studying different types of addiction, which share a core promoting mechanism in the imbalance between impulsive subcortical neural signals associated with immediate pleasurable outcomes and inhibitory signals mediated by a prefrontal reflective system. The resulting impairment in behavioral control represents a hallmark of alcohol use disorders (AUDs), a chronic relapsing disorder characterized by excessive alcohol consumption despite devastating consequences. This review aims to summarize available magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) evidence on reward-related decision-making alterations in AUDs, and to envision possible future research directions. We review functional MRI (fMRI) studies using tasks involving monetary rewards, as well as MRI studies relating decision-making parameters to neurostructural gray- or white-matter metrics. The available data suggest that excessive alcohol exposure affects neural signaling within brain networks underlying adaptive behavioral learning via the implementation of prediction errors. Namely, weaker ventromedial prefrontal cortex activity and altered connectivity between ventral striatum and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex likely underpin a shift from goal-directed to habitual actions which, in turn, might underpin compulsive alcohol consumption and relapsing episodes despite adverse consequences. Overall, these data highlight abnormal fronto-striatal connectivity as a candidate neurobiological marker of impaired choice in AUDs. Further studies are needed, however, to unveil its implications in the multiple facets of decision-making.

  19. Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Based on Bonferroni Mean Operators under Cubic Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gagandeep Kaur

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cubic intuitionistic fuzzy (CIF set is the hybrid set which can contain much more information to express an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set and an intuitionistic fuzzy set simultaneously for handling the uncertainties in the data. Unfortunately, there has been no research on the aggregation operators on CIF sets so far. Since an aggregation operator is an important mathematical tool in decision-making problems, the present paper proposes some new Bonferroni mean and weighted Bonferroni mean averaging operators between the cubic intuitionistic fuzzy numbers for aggregating the different preferences of the decision-maker. Then, we develop a decision-making method based on the proposed operators under the cubic intuitionistic fuzzy environment and illustrated with a numerical example. Finally, a comparison analysis between the proposed and the existing approaches have been performed to illustrate the applicability and feasibility of the developed decision-making method.

  20. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

  1. Academy panel proposes new form of regional institution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloman, E.H.

    1977-01-01

    A panel of the National Academy of Public Administration has proposed development of a new form of interstate regional institution as an instrument for the siting, licensing, and regulating of nuclear facilities. Noting the danger that the nation's energy supplies may prove inadequate to meet basic needs of the economy despite increasing emphasis on greater use of coal and energy conservation, the panel pointed to the virtual stalemate in the national decision-making process for siting and licensing nuclear plants. A basic cause of the logjam is the growing conflict and overlap between federal and state agencies for authorizing nuclear development. The panel recommended setting up a new form of regional organization to fill an institutional void between federal and state levels of government. The proposed regional organizations would be established through federal legislation preempting to the Federal Government the regulation of siting, licensing, and construction of nuclear facilities. They would have jurisdiction over all matters in the operation of nuclear plants relating to public health and safety including those environmental factors and socio-economic factors covered in the preparation of environmental impact statements

  2. GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Lisa H

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for

  3. Critical thinking about adverse drug effects: lessons from the psychology of risk and medical decision-making for clinical psychopharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nierenberg, Andrew A; Smoller, Jordan W; Eidelman, Polina; Wu, Yelena P; Tilley, Claire A

    2008-01-01

    Systematic biases in decision-making have been well characterized in medical and nonmedical fields but mostly ignored in clinical psychopharmacology. The purpose of this paper is to sensitize clinicians who prescribe psychiatric drugs to the issues of the psychology of risk, especially as they pertain to the risk of side effects. Specifically, the present analysis focuses on heuristic organization and framing effects that create cognitive biases in medical practice. Our purpose is to increase the awareness of how pharmaceutical companies may influence physicians by framing the risk of medication side effects to favor their products. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Reflecting variable opening insulating panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nungesser, W.T.

    1976-01-01

    A description is given of a reflecting variable opening insulating panel assembly, comprising a static panel assembly of reflecting insulation sheets forming a cavity along one side of the panel and a movable panel opening out by sliding from the cavity of the static panel, and a locking device for holding the movable panel in a position extending from the cavity of the static panel. This can apply to a nuclear reactor of which the base might require maintenance and periodical checking and for which it is desirable to have available certain processes for the partial dismantling of the insulation [fr

  5. Contributions of China’s Wood-Based Panels to CO2 Emission and Removal Implied by the Energy Consumption Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Life cycle analysis on wood-based panels in terms of CO2 flux can be used to quantitatively assess the climate change contributions of these materials. In this study, the annual CO2 flux between 1990 and 2015 was calculated through gate-to-gate life cycle analysis of wood-based panels. As implied by the energy consumption standards, China’s wood-based panels used to be carbon sources during the period 1990–2007, with the average contribution to CO2 emissions of 9.20 Mt/year. The implementation of new standards and the development of Cleaner production technologies in China, decreased the energy consumption per panel. China’s wood-based panels acted as a carbon sink between 2008 and 2015, with the average contribution to CO2 removal of 31.71 Mt/year. Plywood produced the largest contributions to the emission and removal of CO2, and was followed by fiberboard and particleboard. China’s wood-based panels, with good prospects and strong demands projected in the future, can potentially contribute to climate change mitigation.

  6. Decision-making in the Unified Patent Court: Ensuring a balanced approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schovsbo, Jens Hemmingsen; Petersen, Clement Salung

    2016-01-01

    The Unified Patent Court (UPC) will become a central player in the future development of European patent law. For this reason it becomes important to ensure that UPC‘s decision-making reflects the double-function of the Court as an adjudicator of individual disputes and a policy maker. Because...... of its institutional design, the UPC will be biased towards technology based values. Therefore, there is a risk that non-technical values and interests will be either overlooked or underdeveloped in UPC decision-making which is likely to jeopardize public trust and legitimacy of its decisions. This paper...... analyses how these blind spots can be covered in patent litigation before the UPC within the current legislative framework. The paper focuses on the role of UPC judges as case-managers and decision-makers, on the potential role of third party interveners, and addresses the key role of the parties...

  7. Public Discourse in Energy Policy Decision-Making: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idaho Citizen; Eileen DeShazo; John Freemuth; Tina Giannini; Troy Hall; Ann Hunter; Jeffrey C. Joe; Michael Louis; Carole Nemnich; Jennie Newman; Steven J. Piet; Stephen Sorensen; Paulina Starkey; Kendelle Vogt; Patrick Wilson

    2010-08-01

    The ground is littered with projects that failed because of strong public opposition, including natural gas and coal power plants proposed in Idaho over the past several years. This joint project , of the Idaho National Laboratory, Boise State University, Idaho State University and University of Idaho has aimed to add to the tool box to reduce project risk through encouraging the public to engage in more critical thought and be more actively involved in public or social issues. Early in a project, project managers and decision-makers can talk with no one, pro and con stakeholder groups, or members of the public. Experience has shown that talking with no one outside of the project incurs high risk because opposition stakeholders have many means to stop most (if not all) energy projects. Talking with organized stakeholder groups provides some risk reduction from mutual learning, but organized groups tend not to change positions except under conditions of a negotiated settlement. Achieving a negotiated settlement may be impossible. Furthermore, opposition often arises outside pre-existing groups. Standard public polling provides some information but does not reveal underlying motivations, intensity of attitudes, etc. Improved methods are needed that probe deeper into stakeholder (organized groups and members of the public) values and beliefs/heuristics to increase the potential for change of opinions and/or out-of-box solutions. The term “heuristics” refers to the mental short-cuts, underlying beliefs, and paradigms that everyone uses to filter and interpret information, to interpret what is around us, and to guide our actions and decisions. This document is the final report of a 3-year effort to test different public discourse methods in the subject area of energy policy decision-making. We analyzed 504 mail-in surveys and 80 participants in groups on the Boise State University campus for their preference, financial support, and evaluations of eight attributes

  8. Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society.

  9. Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society

  10. State-of-the-art risk-based approach to spill contingency planning and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, Dagmar; Reilly, Timothy; French McCay, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes incorporating a comprehensive examination of spill risk into risk management and contingency planning, and applying state-of-the-art modeling tools to evaluate various alternatives for appropriate spill response measures and optimize protective responses. The approach allows spill contingency planners and decision-makers to determine the types of spill scenarios that may occur in a particular location or from a particular source and calculate the probability distribution of the various scenarios. The spill probability information is useful in assessing and putting into perspective the various costs options for spill control systems that will be recommended ultimately. Using advanced modeling tools helps in estimating the potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of each spill scenario based on location-specific factors over a range of stochastic possibilities, simulating spill scenarios and determining optimal responses and protection strategies. The benefits and costs of various response alternatives and variations in response time can be calculated and modeling tools for training and risk allocation/transfer purposes used.

  11. Design of nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Qiyan; Zhang Lijun; Huang Weiqi; Chen Lin

    2010-01-01

    For nuclear emergency decision-making support system based on the results of radiation monitoring, its main assignment is receiving radiation monitoring data and analyzing them, to accomplish some works such as environment influence evaluation, dose assessment for emergency responder, decision-making analyzing and effectiveness evaluation for emergency actions, etc.. This system is made up of server, communication terminal, data-analyzing terminal, GPRS modules, printer, and so on. The whole system make of a LAN. The system's software is made up of six subsystems: data-analyzing subsystem, reporting subsystem, GIS subsystem, communication subsystem, user-managing subsystem and data-base. (authors)

  12. A population-based validation study of the DCIS Score predicting recurrence risk in individuals treated by breast-conserving surgery alone

    OpenAIRE

    Rakovitch, Eileen; Nofech-Mozes, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; Baehner, Frederick L.; Saskin, Refik; Butler, Steven M.; Tuck, Alan; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Jani, Prashant A.; Bonin, Michel; Chang, Martin C.; Robertson, Susan J.; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Fong, Cindy

    2015-01-01

    Validated biomarkers are needed to improve risk assessment and treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Oncotype DX? DCIS Score (DS) was shown to predict the risk of local recurrence (LR) in individuals with low-risk DCIS treated by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone. Our objective was to confirm these results in a larger population-based cohort of individuals. We used an established population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with DC...

  13. Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

    2017-06-01

    Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

  14. Mounting clips for panel installation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavieres, Andres; Al-Haddad, Tristan; Goodman, Joseph; Valdes, Francisco

    2017-02-14

    An exemplary mounting clip for removably attaching panels to a supporting structure comprises a base, spring locking clips, a lateral flange, a lever flange, and a spring bonding pad. The spring locking clips extend upwardly from the base. The lateral flange extends upwardly from a first side of the base. The lateral flange comprises a slot having an opening configured to receive at least a portion of one of the one or more panels. The lever flange extends outwardly from the lateral flange. The spring bonding flange extends downwardly from the lever flange. At least a portion of the first spring bonding flange comprises a serrated edge for gouging at least a portion of the one or more panels when the one or more panels are attached to the mounting clip to electrically and mechanically couple the one or more panels to the mounting clip.

  15. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration Supply Chain Integration

    CERN Document Server

    Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde

    2012-01-01

    Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management.  Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...

  16. A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yu-Ting; Zhang, Bai-Hai; Wang, Xiao-Yi; Jin, Xue-Bo; Xu, Ji-Ping; Su, Ting-Li; Wang, Zhao-Yang

    2016-10-28

    Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches' ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method's rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

  17. A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ting Bai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches’ ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method’s rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

  18. Is the relationship between pattern recall and decision-making influenced by anticipatory recall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Adam D; Abernethy, Bruce; Farrow, Damian

    2013-01-01

    The present study compared traditional measures of pattern recall to measures of anticipatory recall and decision-making to examine the underlying mechanisms of expert pattern perception and to address methodological limitations in previous studies where anticipatory recall has generally been overlooked. Recall performance in expert and novice basketball players was measured by examining the spatial error in recalling player positions both for a target image (traditional recall) and at 40-ms increments following the target image (anticipatory recall). Decision-making performance was measured by comparing the participant's response to those identified by a panel of expert coaches. Anticipatory recall was observed in the recall task and was significantly more pronounced for the experts, suggesting that traditional methods of spatial recall analysis may not have provided a completely accurate determination of the full magnitude of the experts' superiority. Accounting for anticipatory recall also increased the relative contribution of recall skill to decision-making accuracy although the gains in explained variance were modest and of debatable functional significance.

  19. A mobility based vibroacoustic energy transmission simulation into an enclosure through a double-wall panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Atanu; Bhattacharya, Partha; Niyogi, Arup Guha; Rose, Michael

    2017-06-01

    Double-wall panels are known for their superior sound insulation properties over single wall panels as a sound barrier. The sound transmission phenomenon through a double-wall structure is a complex process involving vibroacoustic interaction between structural panels, the air-cushion in between, and the secondary acoustic domain. It is in this context a versatile and a fully coupled technique based on the finite-element-boundary element model is developed that enables estimation of sound transfer through a double-wall panel into an adjacent enclosure while satisfying the displacement compatibility across the interface. The contribution of individual components in the transmitted energy is identified through numerical simulations.

  20. Modulating activity in the prefrontal cortex changes decision-making for risky gains and losses: a transcranial direct current stimulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Luo, Jun

    2015-06-01

    When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the risks and benefits of each option. Previous studies have found that weighing of risks and benefits during decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), but the causal effect of this network on risk decision-making has remained unclear. This experiment was based on a risk-measurement table designed to provide a direct measure of risk preference, with a weighted value of the choices (denoted as weighted risk aversion, WRA) as an index of the participant's degree of risk aversion. We studied whether bifrontal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex can change the balance of risky vs. safe responses under both gain frame and loss frame. A total of 60 volunteers performed risk tasks while receiving either anodal over the right with cathodal over the left DLPFC, anodal over the left with cathodal over the right DLPFC, or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose more risky options in the gain frame and more safe options in the loss frame after the right anodal/left cathodal tDCS. We also found that right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the WRA values compared with those associated with sham stimulation. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making, indicating an asymmetric role of the right DLPFC in the gain frame vs. the loss frame of risk decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

    1999-11-14

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

  2. [Boundaries of the autonomy of local health administration: innovation, creativity and evidence-based decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Silvio Fernandes da; Souza, Nathan Mendes; Barreto, Jorge Otávio Maia

    2014-11-01

    The scope of this article was to identify the boundaries of the autonomy of local administration in the context of the federal pact in the Brazilian Unified Health System and the importance and potential for promoting innovation, creativity and evidence-based decision-making by local governments. The methodology used was to ask questions that favored dialogue with the specific literature to identify the influence of centrally-formulated policies in spaces of local autonomy and then to identify strategies to foster innovation, creativity and the systematic use of evidence-based research in health policy implementation. A gradual reduction in municipal decision-making autonomy was detected due to increased financial commitment of the municipalities resulting from responsibilities assumed, albeit with the possibility of reverting this trend in the more recent context. Some determinants and challenges for the dissemination of innovative practices were analyzed and some relevant national and international experiences in this respect were presented. The conclusion drawn is that it is possible to make local decision-making more effective provided that initiatives are consolidated to promote this culture and the formulation and implementation of evidence-based health policies.

  3. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  4. [Methodology for construction of a panel of indicators for monitoring and evaluation of unified health system (SUS) management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamaki, Edson Mamoru; Tanaka, Oswaldo Yoshimi; Felisberto, Eronildo; Alves, Cinthia Kalyne de Almeida; Drumond Junior, Marcos; Bezerra, Luciana Caroline de Albuquerque; Calvo, Maria Cristina Marino; Miranda, Alcides Silva de

    2012-04-01

    This study sought to develop methodology for the construction of a Panel for the Monitoring and Evaluation of Management of the Unified Health System (SUS). The participative process used in addition to the systematization conducted made it possible to identify an effective strategy for building management tools in partnership with researchers, academic institutions and managers of the SUS. The final systematization of the Panel selected indicators for the management of the SUS in terms of Demand, Inputs, Processes, Outputs and Outcomes in order to provide a simple, versatile and useful tool for evaluation at any level of management and more transparent and easier communication with all stakeholders in decision-making. Taking the management of the SUS as the scope of these processes and practices in all normative aspects enabled dialog between systemic theories and those which consider the centrality of the social actor in the decision-making process.

  5. The availability of public information for insurance risk decision-making in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nigel; Gibbs, Mark; Chadwick, Ben; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    At present, there is a wealth of hazard and exposure data which cannot or is not being full used by risk modelling community. The reasons for this under-utilisation of data are many: restrictive and complex data policies and pricing, risks involved in information sharing, technological shortcomings, and variable resolution of data, particularly with catastrophe models only recently having been adjusted to consume high-resolution exposure data. There is therefore an urgent need for the development of common modelling practices and applications for climate and geo-hazard risk assessment, all of which would be highly relevant to public policy, disaster risk management and financial risk transfer communities. This paper will present a methodology to overcome these obstacles and to review the availability of hazard data at research institutions in a consistent format. Such a methodology would facilitate the collation of hazard and other auxiliary data, as well as present data within a geo-spatial framework suitable for public and commercial use. The methodology would also review the suitability of datasets and how these could be made more freely available in conjunction with other research institutions in order to present a consistent data standard. It is clear that an understanding of these different issues of data and data standards have significant ramifications when used in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment. Scrutinising the issue of data standards also allows the data to be evaluated and re-evaluated for its gaps, omissions, fitness, purpose, availability and precision. Not only would there be a quality check on data, but it would also help develop and fine-tune the tools used for decision-making and assessment of risk.

  6. Challenges Associated With Applying Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Public Health Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The development and application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in chemical toxicology have grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. However, critical evaluation of PBPK models to support public health decision-making across federal agencies has t...

  7. Heuristic decision-making about research participation in children with cystic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christofides, Emily; Dobson, Jennifer A; Solomon, Melinda; Waters, Valerie; O'Doherty, Kieran C

    2016-08-01

    Traditional perspectives on informed consent assume that when faced with decisions about whether to participate in research, individuals behave according to principles of classical rationality, taking into account all available information to weigh risks and benefits to come to a decision that is optimal for them. However, theoretical and empirical research in psychology suggests that people may not make decisions in this way. Less is known about decision-making processes as they pertain to participating in biomedical research, particularly when the participants are children. We sought to better understand research decision processes especially in children who tend to participate extensively in research due to chronic illness. To learn more about children's decision-making in this context, we interviewed 19 young patients with cystic fibrosis (male n = 7; female n = 12) aged 8-18 years (M = 13 years) at a children's hospital in Canada between April and August 2013. We found that participants generally had a default approach to participation decisions, which they attributed to their parents' attitudes to research, experiences of having grown up participating in research, trusting the researchers, and wanting to help. Most of our participants made the decision to participate in research based on a heuristic with a baseline to say "yes", subject to change based on aspects of the research or particular preferences. In particular, concerns with the procedure, unwillingness to talk about cystic fibrosis, logistical challenges, and perceptions of risk all influenced the decision, as did the perceived importance or personal relevance of the research. Our study illustrates that rather than conducting risk/benefit analyses, participants tended to adopt a heuristic-like approach, consistent with decision theories that view heuristic decision-making as ecologically rational. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Mounting clips for panel installation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavieres, Andres; Al-Haddad, Tristan; Goodman, Joseph

    2017-07-11

    A photovoltaic panel mounting clip comprising a base, central indexing tabs, flanges, lateral indexing tabs, and vertical indexing tabs. The mounting clip removably attaches one or more panels to a beam or the like structure, both mechanically and electrically. It provides secure locking of the panels in all directions, while providing guidance in all directions for accurate installation of the panels to the beam or the like structure.

  9. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behavior and its underlying psychological factors, as well as to critically examine current regulations on financial behavior.

  10. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J.; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behavior and its underlying psychological factors, as well as to critically examine current regulations on financial behavior. PMID:28203215

  11. Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

    2010-11-01

    US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

  12. Paneling architectural freeform surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Eigensatz, Michael

    2010-07-25

    The emergence of large-scale freeform shapes in architecture poses big challenges to the fabrication of such structures. A key problem is the approximation of the design surface by a union of patches, so-called panels, that can be manufactured with a selected technology at reasonable cost, while meeting the design intent and achieving the desired aesthetic quality of panel layout and surface smoothness. The production of curved panels is mostly based on molds. Since the cost of mold fabrication often dominates the panel cost, there is strong incentive to use the same mold for multiple panels. We cast the major practical requirements for architectural surface paneling, including mold reuse, into a global optimization framework that interleaves discrete and continuous optimization steps to minimize production cost while meeting user-specified quality constraints. The search space for optimization is mainly generated through controlled deviation from the design surface and tolerances on positional and normal continuity between neighboring panels. A novel 6-dimensional metric space allows us to quickly compute approximate inter-panel distances, which dramatically improves the performance of the optimization and enables the handling of complex arrangements with thousands of panels. The practical relevance of our system is demonstrated by paneling solutions for real, cutting-edge architectural freeform design projects.

  13. Paneling architectural freeform surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Eigensatz, Michael

    2010-07-26

    The emergence of large-scale freeform shapes in architecture poses big challenges to the fabrication of such structures. A key problem is the approximation of the design surface by a union of patches, socalled panels, that can be manufactured with a selected technology at reasonable cost, while meeting the design intent and achieving the desired aesthetic quality of panel layout and surface smoothness. The production of curved panels is mostly based on molds. Since the cost of mold fabrication often dominates the panel cost, there is strong incentive to use the same mold for multiple panels. We cast the major practical requirements for architectural surface paneling, including mold reuse, into a global optimization framework that interleaves discrete and continuous optimization steps to minimize production cost while meeting user-specified quality constraints. The search space for optimization is mainly generated through controlled deviation from the design surface and tolerances on positional and normal continuity between neighboring panels. A novel 6-dimensional metric space allows us to quickly compute approximate inter-panel distances, which dramatically improves the performance of the optimization and enables the handling of complex arrangements with thousands of panels. The practical relevance of our system is demonstrated by paneling solutions for real, cutting-edge architectural freeform design projects. © 2010 ACM.

  14. The Decision-Making Process of Genetically At-Risk Couples Considering Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis: Initial Findings from a Grounded Theory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershberger, Patricia E.; Gallo, Agatha M.; Kavanaugh, Karen; Olshansky, Ellen; Schwartz, Alan; Tur-Kaspa, Ilan

    2012-01-01

    Exponential growth in genomics has led to public and private initiatives worldwide that have dramatically increased the number of procreative couples who are aware of their ability to transmit genetic disorders to their future children. Understanding how couples process the meaning of being genetically at risk for their procreative life lags far behind the advances in genomic and reproductive sciences. Moreover, society, policy makers, and clinicians are not aware of the experiences and nuances involved when modern couples are faced with using Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD). The purpose of this study was to discover the decision-making process of genetically at-risk couples as they decide whether to use PGD to prevent the transmission of known single-gene or sex-linked genetic disorders to their children. A qualitative, grounded theory design guided the study in which 22 couples (44 individual partners) from the USA, who were actively considering PGD, participated. Couples were recruited from June 2009 to May 2010 from the Internet and from a large PGD center and a patient newsletter. In-depth semi-structured interviews were completed with each individual partner within the couple dyad, separate from their respective partner. We discovered that couples move through four phases (Identify, Contemplate, Resolve, Engage) of a complex, dynamic, and iterative decision-making process where multiple, sequential decisions are made. In the Identify phase, couples acknowledge the meaning of their at-risk status. Parenthood and reproductive options are explored in the Contemplate phase, where 41% of couples remained for up to 36 months before moving into the Resolve phase. In Resolve, one of three decisions about PGD use is reached, including: Accepting, Declining, or Oscillating. Actualizing decisions occur in the Engage phase. Awareness of the decision-making process among genetically at-risk couples provides foundational work for understanding critical processes

  15. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

  16. Suppression of panel flutter of near-space aircraft based on non-probabilistic reliability theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye-Wei Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The vibration active control of the composite panels with the uncertain parameters in the hypersonic flow is studied using the non-probabilistic reliability theory. Using the piezoelectric patches as active control actuators, dynamic equations of panel are established by finite element method and Hamilton’s principle. And the control model of panel with uncertain parameters is obtained. According to the non-probabilistic reliability index, and besides being based on H∞ robust control theory and non-probabilistic reliability theory, the non-probabilistic reliability performance function is given. Moreover, the relationships between the robust controller and H∞ performance index and reliability are established. Numerical results show that the control method under the influence of reliability, H∞ performance index, and approaching velocity is effective to the vibration suppression of panel in the whole interval of uncertain parameters.

  17. Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badar Nadeem Ashraf

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, risk-based capital requirements have been reinforced in the new Basel III Accord to counter excessive bank risk-taking behavior. However, prior theoretical as well as empirical literature that studies the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior is inconclusive. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior, using a panel dataset of 21 listed commercial banks of Pakistan over the period 2005–2012. Purely regulatory measures of bank capital, capital adequacy ratio, and bank assets portfolio risk, risk-weighted assets to total assets ratio, are used for the main analysis. Recently developed small N panel methods (bias corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC method and system GMM method with instruments collapse option are used to control for panel fixed effects, dynamic dependent variables, and endogenous independent variables. Overall, the results suggest that commercial banks have reduced assets portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. Results also confirm that all banks having risk-based capital ratios either lower or higher than the regulatory required limits, have decreased portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. The results are robust to alternative proxies of bank risk-taking, alternative estimation methods, and alternative samples.

  18. A case study of ex ante, value-based price and reimbursement decision-making: TLV and rimonabant in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Ulf; Willis, Michael; Odegaard, Knut

    2010-04-01

    Value-based pricing (VBP) is a method of setting prices for products based on perceived benefits to the consumer. When information is symmetric and freely available and agency is perfect, VBP is efficient and desirable. Because of substantial information asymmetries, medical insurance distortions, and the prescribing monopoly of physicians, VBP is rare for prescription drugs, though a number of countries have recently moved in this direction. Because the potential benefits can be sizable, it is high time for a review of actual VBP-based decision-making in practice. Sweden, with its pharmaceutical benefits board (TLV), was an early adopter of VBP decision-making. We illustrate actual decision-making, thus, using the case of Acomplia for the treatment of obesity in Sweden, with and without the presence of co-morbid conditions. This example has a number of features that will be useful in illustrating the strengths and weaknesses of VBP in actual practice, including multiple indications, a need for not just one but two economic simulation models, considerable sub-group analysis, and requirements for additional evidence development. TLV concluded, in 2006, that Acomplia was cost-effective for patients with a body mass index (BMI) exceeding 35 kg/m2 and patients with a BMI exceeding 28 kg/m2 and either dyslipidemia or type 2 diabetes. Because of uncertainty in some of the underlying assumptions, reimbursement was granted only until 31 December 2008, at which time the manufacturer would be required to submit additional documentation of the long-term effects and cost-effectiveness in order to obtain continued reimbursement. Deciding on reimbursement coverage for pharmaceutical products is difficult. Ex ante VBP assessment is a form of risk sharing, which has been used by TLV to speed up reimbursement and dispersion of effective new drugs despite uncertainty in their true cost-effectiveness. Manufacturers are often asked in return to generate additional health economic

  19. Parents' decision-making regarding vaccinating their children against influenza: A web-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, Emuella M; Rousculp, Matthew D; Ryan, Kellie J; Beusterien, Kathleen M; Divino, Victoria M; Toback, Seth L; Sasané, Medha; Block, Stan L; Hall, Matthew C; Mahadevia, Parthiv J

    2010-08-01

    Despite the recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that children between the ages of 6 months and 18 years be vaccinated against influenza annually, vaccination rates remain suboptimal. This study was conducted to explore factors that influence parents' decisions regarding influenza vaccination for children aged 2 to 12 years, to quantify the relative importance of these factors, to identify an appropriate theoretical model for illustrating the relationships among these factors, and to characterize parents by their likelihood of vaccinating their children against influenza. A quantitative Web-based survey was administered to a sample of parents from an online panel representative of the US population. Parents were stratified based on self-reported rates of their personal influenza vaccination (every year, sometimes, or never) and the age of their child (2-4 years or 5-12 years). The results were examined by parents' likelihood of vaccinating their child in the next year (high, medium, or low). Participants were asked to rank their agreement with statements representing various beliefs and perceptions about influenza and influenza vaccine on a scale from 1 = strongly agree to 5 = strongly disagree. Parents who indicated that they vaccinate their child every year were asked to select the drivers of their decision to vaccinate; parents who indicated that they never vaccinate their child were asked to select the barriers affecting their decision not to vaccinate; and parents who responded that they sometimes vaccinate their child were asked to select both the drivers and barriers affecting their decision. Participants were then asked to rank the importance of each driver or barrier on a scale from 1 = a little important to 5 = extremely important. Mean agreement ratings were calculated for parents' beliefs and perceptions about influenza and influenza vaccine and were compared across likelihood subgroups. Mean importance ratings of the

  20. Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Index Based on Complex Plane and Its Realization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqin Xu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Ship collision risk index is the basic and important concept in the domain of ship collision avoidance. In this paper, the advantages and deficiencies of the various calculation methods of ship collision risk index are pointed out. Then the ship collision risk model based on complex plane, which can well make up for the deficiencies of the widely-used evaluation model proposed by Kearon.J and Liu ruru is proposed. On this basis, the calculation method of collision risk index under the encountering situation of multi-ships is constructed, then the three-dimensional image and spatial curve of the risk index are figured out. Finally, single chip microcomputer is used to realize the model. And attaching this single chip microcomputer to ARPA is helpful to the decision-making of the marine navigators.

  1. Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

    2012-01-01

    Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

  2. Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

    2012-09-01

    Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

  3. METHOD OF SOFTWARE-BASED COMPENSATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL VARIATION IN CHROMATICITY COORDINATES OF LCD PANELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. O. Zharinov

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The problem of software-based compensation of technological variation in chromaticity coordinates of liquid crystal panels is considered. A method of software-based compensation of technological variation in chromaticity coordinates is proposed. The method provides the color reproduction characteristics of the series-produced samples on-board indication equipment corresponding to the sample equipment, which is taken as the standard. Method. Mathematical calculation of the profile is performed for the given model of the liquid crystal panel. The coefficients that correspond to the typical values of the chromaticity coordinates for the vertices of the triangle color coverage constitute a reference mathematical model of the plate LCD panel from a specific manufacturer. At the stage of incoming inspection the sample of the liquid crystal panel, that is to be implemented within indication equipment, is mounted on the lighting test unit, where Nokia-Test control is provided by the formation of the RGB codes for display the image of a homogeneous field in the red, green, blue and white. The measurement of the (x,y-chromaticity coordinates in red, green, blue and white colors is performed using a colorimeter with the known value of absolute error. Instead of using lighting equipment, such measurements may be carried out immediately on the sample indication equipment during customizing procedure. The measured values are used to calculate individual LCD-panel profile coefficients through the use of Grassman's transformation, establishing mutual relations between the XYZ-color coordinates and RGB codes to be used for displaying the image on the liquid crystal panel. The obtained coefficients are to be set into the memory of the graphics controller together with the functional software and then used for image displaying. Main results. The efficiency of the proposed method of software-based compensation for technological variation of

  4. Data Base Management Systems Panel. Third workshop summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urena, J. L. (Editor)

    1981-01-01

    The discussions and results of a review by a panel of data base management system (DRMS) experts of various aspects of the use of DBMSs within NASA/Office of Space and Terrestrial Applications (OSTA) and related organizations are summarized. The topics discussed included the present status of the use of DBMS technology and of the various ongoing DBMS-related efforts within NASA. The report drafts of a study that seeks to determine the functional requirements for a generalized DBMS for the NASA/OSTA and related data bases are examined. Future problems and possibilities with the use of DBMS technology are also considered. A list of recommendations for NASA/OSTA data systems is included.

  5. Paneling architectural freeform surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Eigensatz, Michael; Kilian, Martin; Schiftner, Alexander; Mitra, Niloy J.; Pottmann, Helmut; Pauly, Mark

    2010-01-01

    with a selected technology at reasonable cost, while meeting the design intent and achieving the desired aesthetic quality of panel layout and surface smoothness. The production of curved panels is mostly based on molds. Since the cost of mold fabrication

  6. Distinct effects of apathy and dopamine on effort-based decision-making in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Heron, Campbell; Plant, Olivia; Manohar, Sanjay; Ang, Yuen-Siang; Jackson, Matthew; Lennox, Graham; Hu, Michele T; Husain, Masud

    2018-05-01

    Effort-based decision-making is a cognitive process crucial to normal motivated behaviour. Apathy is a common and disabling complication of Parkinson's disease, but its aetiology remains unclear. Intriguingly, the neural substrates associated with apathy also subserve effort-based decision-making in animal models and humans. Furthermore, the dopaminergic system plays a core role in motivating effortful behaviour for reward, and its dysfunction has been proposed to play a crucial role in the aetiology of apathy in Parkinson's disease. We hypothesized that disrupted effort-based decision-making underlies the syndrome of apathy in Parkinson's disease, and that this disruption may be modulated by the dopaminergic system. An effort-based decision-making task was administered to 39 patients with Parkinson's disease, with and without clinical apathy, ON and OFF their normal dopaminergic medications across two separate sessions, as well as 32 healthy age- and gender-matched controls. On a trial-by-trial basis, participants decided whether to accept or reject offers of monetary reward in return for exerting different levels of physical effort via handheld, individually calibrated dynamometers. Effort and reward were manipulated independently, such that offers spanned the full range of effort/reward combinations. Apathy was assessed using the Lille apathy rating scale. Motor effects of the dopamine manipulation were assessed using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part three motor score. The primary outcome variable was choice (accept/decline offer) analysed using a hierarchical generalized linear mixed effects model, and the vigour of squeeze (Newtons exerted above required force). Both apathy and dopamine depletion were associated with reduced acceptance of offers. However, these effects were driven by dissociable patterns of responding. While apathy was characterized by increased rejection of predominantly low reward offers, dopamine increased responding to

  7. Determining the psychometric properties of the Enhancing Decision-making Assessment in Midwifery (EDAM) measure in a cross cultural context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefford, Elaine; Jomeen, Julie; Martin, Colin R

    2016-04-28

    The ability to act on and justify clinical decisions as autonomous accountable midwifery practitioners, is encompassed within many international regulatory frameworks, yet decision-making within midwifery is poorly defined. Decision-making theories from medicine and nursing may have something to offer, but fail to take into consideration midwifery context and philosophy and the decisional autonomy of women. Using an underpinning qualitative methodology, a decision-making framework was developed, which identified Good Clinical Reasoning and Good Midwifery Practice as two conditions necessary to facilitate optimal midwifery decision-making during 2nd stage labour. This study aims to confirm the robustness of the framework and describe the development of Enhancing Decision-making Assessment in Midwifery (EDAM) as a measurement tool through testing of its factor structure, validity and reliability. A cross-sectional design for instrument development and a 2 (country; Australia/UK) x 2 (Decision-making; optimal/sub-optimal) between-subjects design for instrument evaluation using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency and known-groups validity. Two 'expert' maternity panels, based in Australia and the UK, comprising of 42 participants assessed 16 midwifery real care episode vignettes using the empirically derived 26 item framework. Each item was answered on a 5 point likert scale based on the level of agreement to which the participant felt each item was present in each of the vignettes. Participants were then asked to rate the overall decision-making (optimal/sub-optimal). Post factor analysis the framework was reduced to a 19 item EDAM measure, and confirmed as two distinct scales of 'Clinical Reasoning' (CR) and 'Midwifery Practice' (MP). The CR scale comprised of two subscales; 'the clinical reasoning process' and 'integration and intervention'. The MP scale also comprised two subscales; women's relationship with the midwife' and 'general

  8. Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofsinger, John R; Patterson, Fernando M; Shank, Corey A

    2018-05-01

    We examine the relation between testosterone, cortisol, and financial decisions in a sample of naïve investors. We find that testosterone level is positively related to excess risk-taking, whereas cortisol level is negatively related to excess risk-taking (correlation coefficient [r]: 0.75 and -0.21, respectively). Additionally, we find support for the dual-hormone hypothesis in a financial context. Specifically, the testosterone-to-cortisol ratio is significantly related to loss aversion. Individuals with a higher ratio are 3.4 times more likely to sell losing stocks (standard error [SE]: 1.63). Furthermore, we find a positive feedback loop between financial success, testosterone, and cortisol. Specifically, financial success is significantly related to higher post-trial testosterone and cortisol by a factor of 0.53 (SE: 0.14). Finally, we find that in a competitive environment, testosterone level increases significantly, leading to greater risk-taking than in noncompetitive environment. Overall, this study underscores the importance of the endocrine system on financial decision-making. The results of this study are relevant to a broad audience, including investors looking to optimize financial performance, industry human resources, market regulators, and researchers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Study of behaviour of workings in longwall panel based on field instrumentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    V.R. Sastry; Roshan Nair [National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Mangalore (India). Department of Mining Engineering

    2009-07-01

    The paper presents field monitoring study of two adjacent longwall panels based on stress measurements in longwall block and barrier, load transferred on to the gate roads and convergence measurements in the gate roads during face retreat in the panels. Results indicated that the section of barrier lying in the goaf experienced higher abutment stress when compared with the section lying ahead of face. There was a transfer of load in gate roads ahead of face after the occurrence of roof fall in goaf. Maximum cumulative convergence of more than 8 mm was observed in the gate roads during weightings.

  10. Risky decision-making is associated with residential choice in healthy older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, Kendra L; Stillman, Chelsea M; Howard, Darlene V; Howard, James H

    2015-01-01

    As our society becomes more mobile and people reside farther away from their immediate families, competent decision-making has become critical for the older adults wishing to maintain their independence. However, very little is known about the relationship between residential choice and decision-making. Here we use the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) to examine risk-taking in two samples of older adults, one living in a retirement community and another living independently. We also used a cognitive model to gain insight into the cognitive factors underlying decision-making in these groups. We found that older adults living in a retirement community were more risk averse than their independent counterparts. Furthermore, this difference appeared to be motivated by group differences in initial perception of risk. This study suggests an intriguing difference between these two residential groups, and also points to the utility of using laboratory methods in research on real-world problems.

  11. Exploration of Risks in Autonomous Decision-Making Applied to Aeronautics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prior research into metrics and design for autonomy were presented. At this time, the prospect of adding significant autonomous decision-making on a piloted aircraft...

  12. Cooperative Decision-Making and Intimate Partner Violence in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svec, Joseph; Andic, Tanja

    2018-03-01

    Using the continuous Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2012) for Peru, we employ multinomial logistic regression estimates to assess risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). Using empowerment and gender frameworks for IPV, we find that women making more household decisions jointly are less likely to experience physical violence. We also find that education is negatively associated with IPV, unless a woman's attainment exceeds her partner's. Although women earning more than their partners are more likely to experience violence, joint decision-makers have a lower risk of moderate physical violence even when their status exceeds that of a male partner. By adding measures for relationship dynamics, we highlight the ways decision-making within the household contributes to violence risk for women. While deviating from male-breadwinning norms can result in violence, risk factors are conditioned on the nature of cooperation within a partnership. Our findings suggest that shared power within the household reduces IPV risk.

  13. Self-perceived quality of life predicts mortality risk better than a multi-biomarker panel, but the combination of both does best

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nauck Matthias

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Associations between measures of subjective health and mortality risk have previously been shown. We assessed the impact and comparative predictive performance of a multi-biomarker panel on this association. Methods Data from 4,261 individuals aged 20-79 years recruited for the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania was used. During an average 9.7 year follow-up, 456 deaths (10.7% occurred. Subjective health was assessed by SF-12 derived physical (PCS-12 and mental component summaries (MCS-12, and a single-item self-rated health (SRH question. We implemented Cox proportional-hazards regression models to investigate the association of subjective health with mortality and to assess the impact of a combination of 10 biomarkers on this association. Variable selection procedures were used to identify a parsimonious set of subjective health measures and biomarkers, whose predictive ability was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves, C-statistics, and reclassification methods. Results In age- and gender-adjusted Cox models, poor SRH (hazard ratio (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.34-3.20 and low PCS-12 scores (lowest vs. highest quartile: HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.33 were significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality; an association independent of various covariates and biomarkers. Furthermore, selected subjective health measures yielded a significantly higher C-statistic (0.883 compared to the selected biomarker panel (0.872, whereas a combined assessment showed the highest C-statistic (0.887 with a highly significant integrated discrimination improvement of 1.5% (p Conclusion Adding biomarker information did not affect the association of subjective health measures with mortality, but significantly improved risk stratification. Thus, a combined assessment of self-reported subjective health and measured biomarkers may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for intensified monitoring.

  14. Safety Risk Management for Homeland Defense and Security Responders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meyers, Tommey H

    2005-01-01

    .... Coast Guard and the U.S. Navy. This revealed that Operational Risk Management (ORM), a risk-based decision-making tool that systematically balances risk and mission completion, and Crew Resource Management (CRM...

  15. A Grounded Theory Study of Aircraft Maintenance Technician Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norcross, Robert

    related to decision-making. Recommendations included an in-depth systematic review of the Aircraft Maintenance Manuals, development of a Federal Aviation Administration approved standardized Aircraft Maintenance Technician decision-making flow diagram, and implementation of risk based decision-making training. The benefit of this study is to save the airline industry revenue by preventing poor decision-making practices that result in inefficient maintenance actions and aircraft incidents and accidents.

  16. Ottawa Panel evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for therapeutic exercise in the management of hip osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosseau, Lucie; Wells, George A; Pugh, Arlanna G; Smith, Christine Am; Rahman, Prinon; Àlvarez Gallardo, Inmaculada C; Toupin-April, Karine; Loew, Laurianne; De Angelis, Gino; Cavallo, Sabrina; Taki, Jade; Marcotte, Rachel; Fransen, Marlene; Hernandez-Molina, Gabriela; Kenny, Glen P; Regnaux, Jean-Philippe; Lefevre-Colau, Marie-Martine; Brooks, Sydney; Laferriere, Lucie; McLean, Linda; Longchamp, Guy

    2016-10-01

    The primary objective is to identify effective land-based therapeutic exercise interventions and provide evidence-based recommendations for managing hip osteoarthritis. A secondary objective is to develop an Ottawa Panel evidence-based clinical practice guideline for hip osteoarthritis. The search strategy and modified selection criteria from a Cochrane review were used. Studies included hip osteoarthritis patients in comparative controlled trials with therapeutic exercise interventions. An Expert Panel arrived at a Delphi survey consensus to endorse the recommendations. The Ottawa Panel hierarchical alphabetical grading system (A, B, C+, C, D, D+, or D-) considered the study design (level I: randomized controlled trial and level II: controlled clinical trial), statistical significance (p osteoarthritis. Strength training exercises displayed the greatest improvements for pain (Grade A), disability (Grades A and C+), physical function (Grade A), stiffness (Grade A), and range of motion (Grade A) within a short time period (8-24 weeks). Stretching also greatly improved physical function (Grade A), and flexibility exercises improved pain (Grade A), range of motion (Grade A), physical function (Grade A), and stiffness (Grade C+). The Ottawa Panel recommends land-based therapeutic exercise, notably strength training, for management of hip osteoarthritis in reducing pain, stiffness and self-reported disability, and improving physical function and range of motion. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. The decision-making role of the patient in localised prostate cancer treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke L Wang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Our objective was to review the current literature on patient participation and decision-making in the treatment selection process for localised prostate cancer, and to evaluate capacity for improvement. Methods: 42 articles from our literature search were deemed eligible and relevant for review. We reviewed studies on all facets of the treatment decision-making process with most number of articles (16 on treatment preferences. Results: The majority of the patients prefer an active or collaborative role in decision-making. Patients are seeking information from a myriad of sources but the recommendation from their treating physician is often the most influential on the final decision. Radical prostatectomy is more likely to be selected in patients who view a cure for cancer as being of the utmost importance and radiation therapy is preferred in patients who are concerned about treatment side effects. Conclusion: Currently no ideal tool exists to assist patients in making informed treatment decisions that also takes into account patients’ values and preferences. We encourage collaborative partnership in a multidisciplinary setting to optimise this process and individualised risk-based decision-making tools may provide a better pathway to assist patients reach decisions.

  18. Panel acoustic contribution analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Sean F; Natarajan, Logesh Kumar

    2013-02-01

    Formulations are derived to analyze the relative panel acoustic contributions of a vibrating structure. The essence of this analysis is to correlate the acoustic power flow from each panel to the radiated acoustic pressure at any field point. The acoustic power is obtained by integrating the normal component of the surface acoustic intensity, which is the product of the surface acoustic pressure and normal surface velocity reconstructed by using the Helmholtz equation least squares based nearfield acoustical holography, over each panel. The significance of this methodology is that it enables one to analyze and rank relative acoustic contributions of individual panels of a complex vibrating structure to acoustic radiation anywhere in the field based on a single set of the acoustic pressures measured in the near field. Moreover, this approach is valid for both interior and exterior regions. Examples of using this method to analyze and rank the relative acoustic contributions of a scaled vehicle cabin are demonstrated.

  19. Including Indigenous Minorities in Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pristed Nielsen, Helene

    Based on theories of public sphere participation and deliberative democracy, this book presents empirical results from a study of experiences with including Aboriginal and Maori groups in political decision-making in respectively Western Australia and New Zealand......Based on theories of public sphere participation and deliberative democracy, this book presents empirical results from a study of experiences with including Aboriginal and Maori groups in political decision-making in respectively Western Australia and New Zealand...

  20. From science to action: Principles for undertaking environmental research that enables knowledge exchange and evidence-based decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvitanovic, C; McDonald, J; Hobday, A J

    2016-12-01

    Effective conservation requires knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers to enable learning and support evidence-based decision-making. Efforts to improve knowledge exchange have been hindered by a paucity of empirically-grounded guidance to help scientists and practitioners design and implement research programs that actively facilitate knowledge exchange. To address this, we evaluated the Ningaloo Research Program (NRP), which was designed to generate new scientific knowledge to support evidence-based decisions about the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park in north-western Australia. Specifically, we evaluated (1) outcomes of the NRP, including the extent to which new knowledge informed management decisions; (2) the barriers that prevented knowledge exchange among scientists and managers; (3) the key requirements for improving knowledge exchange processes in the future; and (4) the core capacities that are required to support knowledge exchange processes. While the NRP generated expansive and multidisciplinary science outputs directly relevant to the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park, decision-makers are largely unaware of this knowledge and little has been integrated into decision-making processes. A range of barriers prevented efficient and effective knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers including cultural differences among the groups, institutional barriers within decision-making agencies, scientific outputs that were not translated for decision-makers and poor alignment between research design and actual knowledge needs. We identify a set of principles to be implemented routinely as part of any applied research program, including; (i) stakeholder mapping prior to the commencement of research programs to identify all stakeholders, (ii) research questions to be co-developed with stakeholders, (iii) implementation of participatory research approaches, (iv) use of a knowledge broker, and (v) tailored knowledge management

  1. Aerothermoelastic analysis of panel flutter based on the absolute nodal coordinate formulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbas, Laith K., E-mail: laithabbass@yahoo.com; Rui, Xiaoting, E-mail: ruixt@163.com [Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Institute of Launch Dynamics (China); Marzocca, Piergiovanni, E-mail: pmarzocc@clarkson.edu [Clarkson University, Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering Department (United States)

    2015-02-15

    Panels of reentry vehicles are subjected to a wide range of flow conditions during ascent and reentry phases. The flow can vary from subsonic continuum flow to hypersonic rarefied flow with wide ranging dynamic pressure and associated aerodynamic heating. One of the main design considerations is the assurance of safety against panel flutter under the flow conditions characterized by sever thermal environment. This paper deals with supersonic/hypersonic flutter analysis of panels exposed to a temperature field. A 3-D rectangular plate element of variable thickness based on absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) has been developed for the structural model and subjected to an assumed thermal profile that can result from any residual heat seeping into the metallic panels through the thermal protection systems. A continuum mechanics approach for the definition of the elastic forces within the finite element is considered. Both shear strain and transverse normal strain are taken into account. The aerodynamic force is evaluated by considering the first-order piston theory to linearize the potential flow and is coupled with the structural model to account for pressure loading. A provision is made to take into account the effect of arbitrary flow directions with respect to the panel edges. Aerothermoelastic equations using ANCF are derived and solved numerically. Values of critical dynamic pressure are obtained by a modal approach, in which the mode shapes are obtained by ANCF. A detailed parametric study is carried out to observe the effects of different temperature loadings, flow angle directions, and aspect ratios on the flutter boundary.

  2. Aerothermoelastic analysis of panel flutter based on the absolute nodal coordinate formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbas, Laith K.; Rui, Xiaoting; Marzocca, Piergiovanni

    2015-01-01

    Panels of reentry vehicles are subjected to a wide range of flow conditions during ascent and reentry phases. The flow can vary from subsonic continuum flow to hypersonic rarefied flow with wide ranging dynamic pressure and associated aerodynamic heating. One of the main design considerations is the assurance of safety against panel flutter under the flow conditions characterized by sever thermal environment. This paper deals with supersonic/hypersonic flutter analysis of panels exposed to a temperature field. A 3-D rectangular plate element of variable thickness based on absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) has been developed for the structural model and subjected to an assumed thermal profile that can result from any residual heat seeping into the metallic panels through the thermal protection systems. A continuum mechanics approach for the definition of the elastic forces within the finite element is considered. Both shear strain and transverse normal strain are taken into account. The aerodynamic force is evaluated by considering the first-order piston theory to linearize the potential flow and is coupled with the structural model to account for pressure loading. A provision is made to take into account the effect of arbitrary flow directions with respect to the panel edges. Aerothermoelastic equations using ANCF are derived and solved numerically. Values of critical dynamic pressure are obtained by a modal approach, in which the mode shapes are obtained by ANCF. A detailed parametric study is carried out to observe the effects of different temperature loadings, flow angle directions, and aspect ratios on the flutter boundary

  3. Autonomy and Accountability: Teacher Perspectives on Evidence-Based Practice and Decision-Making for Students with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenway, Rosanne; McCollow, Meaghan; Hudson, Roxanne F.; Peck, Charles; Davis, Carol A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine teacher perspectives about evidence-based practices (EBP) and decision-making for students with intellectual and developmental disabilities. Given the current EBP movement, our study sought to understand practitioner definitions and perspectives on EBP and decision-making. Interview data from nine special…

  4. Prioritization of Bioethanol Production Pathways in China based on Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Mazzi, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The study objectives are two-fold: (i) combining the life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) framework and the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology for sustainability assessment; (ii) determining the most sustainable scenario for bioethanol production in China according......’s proposed method investigates an illustrative case about three alternative bioethanol production scenarios (wheat-based, corn-based and cassava-based): the prior sequence (based on the sustainability performances) in descending order is cassava-based, corn-based and wheat-based. The proposed methodology...... is to test the combination of a MCDM methodology and LCSA for sustainability decision-making by studying three alternative pathways for bioethanol production in China. The proposed method feasibly enables the decision-makers/stakeholders to find the most sustainable scenario to achieve their objectives among...

  5. An EGR performance evaluation and decision-making approach based on grey theory and grey entropy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zu, Xianghuan; Yang, Chuanlei; Wang, Hechun; Wang, Yinyan

    2018-01-01

    Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is one of the main methods of reducing NOX emissions and has been widely used in marine diesel engines. This paper proposes an optimized comprehensive assessment method based on multi-objective grey situation decision theory, grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis to evaluate the performance and optimize rate determination of EGR, which currently lack clear theoretical guidance. First, multi-objective grey situation decision theory is used to establish the initial decision-making model according to the main EGR parameters. The optimal compromise between diesel engine combustion and emission performance is transformed into a decision-making target weight problem. After establishing the initial model and considering the characteristics of EGR under different conditions, an optimized target weight algorithm based on grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis is applied to generate the comprehensive evaluation and decision-making model. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied to a TBD234V12 turbocharged diesel engine, and the results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method for providing theoretical support and a reference for further EGR optimization.

  6. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  7. Decision-Making in Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mireille Neuhaus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Multiple sclerosis (MS is frequently associated with cognitive and behavioural deficits. A growing number of studies suggest an impact of MS on decision-making abilities. The aim of this systematic review was to assess if (1 performance of MS patients in decision-making tasks was consistently different from controls and (2 whether this modification was associated with cognitive dysfunction and emotional alterations. Methods. The search was conducted on Pubmed/Medline database. 12 studies evaluating the difference between MS patients and healthy controls using validated decision-making tasks were included. Outcomes considered were quantitative (net scores and qualitative measurements (deliberation time and learning from feedback. Results. Quantitative and qualitative decision-making impairment in MS was present in 64.7% of measurements. Patients were equally impaired in tasks for decision-making under risk and ambiguity. A correlation to other cognitive functions was present in 50% of cases, with the highest associations in the domains of processing speed and attentional capacity. Conclusions. In MS patients, qualitative and quantitative modifications may be present in any kind of decision-making task and can appear independently of other cognitive measures. Since decision-making abilities have a significant impact on everyday life, this cognitive aspect has an influential importance in various MS-related treatment settings.

  8. Decision-Making in Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuhaus, Mireille; Calabrese, Pasquale; Annoni, Jean-Marie

    2018-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is frequently associated with cognitive and behavioural deficits. A growing number of studies suggest an impact of MS on decision-making abilities. The aim of this systematic review was to assess if (1) performance of MS patients in decision-making tasks was consistently different from controls and (2) whether this modification was associated with cognitive dysfunction and emotional alterations. The search was conducted on Pubmed/Medline database. 12 studies evaluating the difference between MS patients and healthy controls using validated decision-making tasks were included. Outcomes considered were quantitative (net scores) and qualitative measurements (deliberation time and learning from feedback). Quantitative and qualitative decision-making impairment in MS was present in 64.7% of measurements. Patients were equally impaired in tasks for decision-making under risk and ambiguity. A correlation to other cognitive functions was present in 50% of cases, with the highest associations in the domains of processing speed and attentional capacity. In MS patients, qualitative and quantitative modifications may be present in any kind of decision-making task and can appear independently of other cognitive measures. Since decision-making abilities have a significant impact on everyday life, this cognitive aspect has an influential importance in various MS-related treatment settings.

  9. Decision-making based on emotional images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants' choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the "reward value" of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants' choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have successfully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures) was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.

  10. The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedder, Moniek M; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Lilja, Hans G; Vickers, Andrew J; van Leenders, Geert J L H; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Roobol, Monique J

    2014-12-01

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has limited accuracy for the early detection of prostate cancer (PCa). To assess the value added by percentage of free to total PSA (%fPSA), prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), and a kallikrein panel (4k-panel) to the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) multivariable prediction models: risk calculator (RC) 4, including transrectal ultrasound, and RC 4 plus digital rectal examination (4+DRE) for prescreened men. Participants were invited for rescreening between October 2007 and February 2009 within the Dutch part of the ERSPC study. Biopsies were taken in men with a PSA level ≥3.0 ng/ml or a PCA3 score ≥10. Additional analyses of the 4k-panel were done on serum samples. Outcome was defined as PCa detectable by sextant biopsy. Receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses were performed to compare the predictive capabilities of %fPSA, PCA3, 4k-panel, the ERSPC RCs, and their combinations in logistic regression models. PCa was detected in 119 of 708 men. The %fPSA did not perform better univariately or added to the RCs compared with the RCs alone. In 202 men with an elevated PSA, the 4k-panel discriminated better than PCA3 when modelled univariately (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.78 vs. 0.62; p=0.01). The multivariable models with PCA3 or the 4k-panel were equivalent (AUC: 0.80 for RC 4+DRE). In the total population, PCA3 discriminated better than the 4k-panel (univariate AUC: 0.63 vs. 0.56; p=0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the multivariable model with PCA3 (AUC: 0.73) versus the model with the 4k-panel (AUC: 0.71; p=0.18). The multivariable model with PCA3 performed better than the reference model (0.73 vs. 0.70; p=0.02). Decision curves confirmed these patterns, although numbers were small. Both PCA3 and, to a lesser extent, a 4k-panel have added value to the DRE-based ERSPC RC in detecting PCa in prescreened men. We studied the added

  11. The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Gallego, Aurora

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a simple task for eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the Sabater-Grande and Georgantzís (SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lotterypanel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making: subjects’ average willingness to choose risky projects and their sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk. We report results from a large dataset obtained from the implementation of the SGG lottery-panel task and discuss regularities and the desirability of its bi-dimensionality both for describing behaviour under uncertainty and explaining behaviour in other contexts.

    En este trabajo proponemos una tarea sencilla que permite obtener la actitud frente a la toma de riesgo monetario, y que llamaremos tarea Sabater-Grande y Georgantzís (SGG de riesgo. Esta tarea consiste en una serie de loterías construidas para compensar las opciones de mayor riesgo con un mayor retorno. Utilizando la técnica de componentes principales, encontramos que la tarea SGG es capaz de capturar dos dimensiones de la toma de decisiones individuales: por un lado, la voluntad promedio de los sujetos de elegir proyectos arriesgados y, por otro, su sensibilidad hacia las variaciones en el retorno por riesgo. Presentamos los resultados de una gran muestra de datos obtenidos a partir de la implementación de la tarea SGG, y discutimos las regularidades y la conveniencia de su bidimensionalidad tanto para describir el comportamiento en condiciones de incertidumbre como para explicar el comportamiento humano en otros contextos.

  12. Does improved decision-making ability reduce the physiological demands of game-based activities in field sport athletes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbett, Tim J; Carius, Josh; Mulvey, Mike

    2008-11-01

    This study investigated the effects of video-based perceptual training on pattern recognition and pattern prediction ability in elite field sport athletes and determined whether enhanced perceptual skills influenced the physiological demands of game-based activities. Sixteen elite women soccer players (mean +/- SD age, 18.3 +/- 2.8 years) were allocated to either a video-based perceptual training group (N = 8) or a control group (N = 8). The video-based perceptual training group watched video footage of international women's soccer matches. Twelve training sessions, each 15 minutes in duration, were conducted during a 4-week period. Players performed assessments of speed (5-, 10-, and 20-m sprint), repeated-sprint ability (6 x 20-m sprints, with active recovery on a 15-second cycle), estimated maximal aerobic power (V O2 max, multistage fitness test), and a game-specific video-based perceptual test of pattern recognition and pattern prediction before and after the 4 weeks of video-based perceptual training. The on-field assessments included time-motion analysis completed on all players during a standardized 45-minute small-sided training game, and assessments of passing, shooting, and dribbling decision-making ability. No significant changes were detected in speed, repeated-sprint ability, or estimated V O2 max during the training period. However, video-based perceptual training improved decision accuracy and reduced the number of recall errors, indicating improved game awareness and decision-making ability. Importantly, the improvements in pattern recognition and prediction ability transferred to on-field improvements in passing, shooting, and dribbling decision-making skills. No differences were detected between groups for the time spent standing, walking, jogging, striding, and sprinting during the small-sided training game. These findings demonstrate that video-based perceptual training can be used effectively to enhance the decision-making ability of field

  13. Sandwich-panels based on penopolisocyanurate and mineral wool

    OpenAIRE

    Burtzeva M.; Mednikova E.

    2017-01-01

    Sandwich panel is a self-supporting structure consisting of two steel zinc-coated profiles with a layer of heat retainer. It is used as roofing and walling material. Widely is used in industrial construction, shopping centres, sports complexes, chilling and freezing chambers, storage buildings and quickly erectable housing. The classical basis of heat-insulating layer (core panel) products is used mineral wool insulation materials. This material is resistant to deformation, non-flammable,...

  14. EFSA CONTAM Panel (EFSA Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain), 2015. Scientific Opinion on the risks to animal and public health and the environment related to the presence of nickel in feed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Annette

    observed adverse effect levels (LOAELs), the CONTAM Panel concluded that any adverse impact of Ni via feed to cattle, pigs, rabbits, ducks, fish, dogs, chickens, horses, sheep, goats and cats is unlikely. Concerning the assessment of human health risks from the presence of Ni in food of animal origin...

  15. Performance comparison between silicon solar panel and dye-sensitized solar panel in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamed, N. K. A.; Ahmad, M. K.; Urus, N. S. T.; Mohamad, F.; Nafarizal, N.; Ahmad, N.; Soon, C. F.; Ameruddin, A. S.; Faridah, A. B.; Shimomura, M.; Murakami, K.

    2017-09-01

    In carrying out experimental research in performance between silicon solar panel and dye-sensitive solar panel, we have been developing a device and a system. This system has been developed consisting of controllers, hardware and software. This system is capable to get most of the input sources. If only need to change the main circuit and coding for a different source input value. This device is able to get the ambient temperature, surface temperature, surrounding humidity, voltage with load, current with load, voltage without load and current without load and save the data into external memory. This device is able to withstand the heat and rain as it was fabricated in a waterproof box. This experiment was conducted to examine the performance of both the solar panels which are capable to maintain their stability and performance. A conclusion based on data populated, the distribution of data for dye-sensitized solar panel is much better than silicon solar panel as dye-sensitized solar panel is very sensitive to heat and not depend only on midday where is that is the maximum ambient temperature for both solar panel as silicon solar panel only can give maximum and high output only when midday.

  16. Decision-Making Autonomy and Subsidiary Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Vo, Dut; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd; de Jong, Gjalt

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates how decision-making autonomy affects the possibility and intensity of innovation in subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Subsidiaries are increasingly identified as sources of innovation and as vehicles for cross-border transfer of new competences. The question...... of how much decision-making autonomy subsidiaries should have is a core issue in the management of headquarters-subsidiary relationships. Using two complementary theoretical perspectives, we hypothesize a non-linear relationship between subsidiary’s decision-making autonomy and innovation. We test our...... hypothesis in a multi-country and multiindustry database based on survey evidence of 134 subsidiaries located in five Central and Eastern European countries from 23 home countries. The empirical results provide support for a non-linear U shaped relationship between subsidiary decision-making autonomy...

  17. 'Sometimes people let love conquer them': how love, intimacy, and trust in relationships between men who have sex with men influence perceptions of sexual risk and sexual decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenberg, Tamar; Finneran, Catherine; Andes, Karen L; Stephenson, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Men who have sex with men account for a disproportionate burden of HIV incidence in the USA. Although much research has examined the drivers of sexual risk-taking, the emotional contexts in which men make sexual decisions has received little attention. In this three-phase, 10-week longitudinal qualitative study involving 25 gay and bisexual men, we used timeline-based interviews and quantitative web-based diaries about sexual and/or dating partners to examine how emotions influence HIV risk perceptions and sexual decision-making. Participants described love, intimacy, and trust as reducing HIV risk perceptions and facilitating engagement in condomless anal intercourse. Lust was not as linked with risk perceptions, but facilitated non condom-use through an increased willingness to engage in condomless anal intercourse, despite perceptions of risk. Results indicate that gay and bisexual men do not make sexual decisions in an emotional vacuum. Emotions influence perceptions of risk so that they do not necessarily align with biological risk factors. Emotional influences, especially the type and context of emotions, are important to consider to improve HIV prevention efforts among gay and bisexual men.

  18. Risk communication and trust in decision-maker action: a case study of the Giant Mine Remediation Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia G. Jardine

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background. The development and implementation of a remediation plan for the residual arsenic trioxide stored at the former Giant Mine site in the Canadian Northwest Territories has raised important issues related to trust. Social and individual trust of those responsible for making decisions on risks is critically important in community judgements on risk and the acceptability of risk management decisions. Trust is known to be affected by value similarity and confidence in past performance, which serve as interacting sources of cooperation in acting toward a common goal. Objective. To explore the elements of trust associated with the development and implementation of the Giant Mine Remediation Plan. Design. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight purposively selected key informants representing both various interested and affected parties and the two government proponents. Results. Five primary issues related to trust were identified by the participants: (1 a historical legacy of mistrust between the community (particularly Aboriginal peoples and government; (2 barriers to building trust with the federal government; (3 limited community input and control over the decision-making process; (4 the conflicted and confounded role of the government agencies being both proponent and regulator, and the resulting need for independent oversight; and (5 distrust of the government to commit to the perpetual care required for the remediation option selected. Conclusions. The dual-mode model of trust and confidence was shown to be a useful framework for understanding the pivotal role of trust in the development of the Giant Mine Remediation Plan. Failure to recognize issues of trust based on value dissimilarity and lack of confidence based on past performance have resulted in a lack of cooperation characterized by delayed remediation and a prolonged and expensive consultation process. Government recognition of the importance of trust to these

  19. Incidental Affective State and Financial Risk: Beyond a Valence-Based Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Galentino Andrea; Bonini Nicolao

    2014-01-01

    Standard economic models explain decision-making under risk as a methodical utility maximization process. Developments in cognitive psychology and neuroeconomics show the volatility of such conceptualization highlighting human bounded rationality and discussing the role of decision makers' affective state in cognitive evaluations of risk ("risk as feelings"). Affective influences may be elicited by the decision process itself (integral affect) or might be associated with stimuli/events unrela...

  20. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  1. A grounded typology of vacation decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Decrop, A.; Snelders, H.M.J.J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a typology of vacationers based on decision-making variables and processes. Employing a naturalistic perspective, the (summer) vacation decision-making process of 25 Belgian households was followed for a year. In-depth interview and observation data were analyzed and interpreted

  2. Towards a cognitive robotics methodology for reward-based decision-making: dynamical systems modelling of the Iowa Gambling Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Robert; Ziemke, Tom

    2010-09-01

    The somatic marker hypothesis (SMH) posits that the role of emotions and mental states in decision-making manifests through bodily responses to stimuli of import to the organism's welfare. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), proposed by Bechara and Damasio in the mid-1990s, has provided the major source of empirical validation to the role of somatic markers in the service of flexible and cost-effective decision-making in humans. In recent years the IGT has been the subject of much criticism concerning: (1) whether measures of somatic markers reveal that they are important for decision-making as opposed to behaviour preparation; (2) the underlying neural substrate posited as critical to decision-making of the type relevant to the task; and (3) aspects of the methodological approach used, particularly on the canonical version of the task. In this paper, a cognitive robotics methodology is proposed to explore a dynamical systems approach as it applies to the neural computation of reward-based learning and issues concerning embodiment. This approach is particularly relevant in light of a strongly emerging alternative hypothesis to the SMH, the reversal learning hypothesis, which links, behaviourally and neurocomputationally, a number of more or less complex reward-based decision-making tasks, including the 'A-not-B' task - already subject to dynamical systems investigations with a focus on neural activation dynamics. It is also suggested that the cognitive robotics methodology may be used to extend systematically the IGT benchmark to more naturalised, but nevertheless controlled, settings that might better explore the extent to which the SMH, and somatic states per se, impact on complex decision-making.

  3. Blood-based gene-expression predictors of PTSD risk and resilience among deployed marines: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glatt, Stephen J; Tylee, Daniel S; Chandler, Sharon D; Pazol, Joel; Nievergelt, Caroline M; Woelk, Christopher H; Baker, Dewleen G; Lohr, James B; Kremen, William S; Litz, Brett T; Tsuang, Ming T

    2013-06-01

    Susceptibility to PTSD is determined by both genes and environment. Similarly, gene-expression levels in peripheral blood are influenced by both genes and environment, and expression levels of many genes show good correspondence between peripheral blood and brain. Therefore, our objectives were to test the following hypotheses: (1) pre-trauma expression levels of a gene subset (particularly immune-system genes) in peripheral blood would differ between trauma-exposed Marines who later developed PTSD and those who did not; (2) a predictive biomarker panel of the eventual emergence of PTSD among high-risk individuals could be developed based on gene expression in readily assessable peripheral blood cells; and (3) a predictive panel based on expression of individual exons would surpass the accuracy of a model based on expression of full-length gene transcripts. Gene-expression levels were assayed in peripheral blood samples from 50 U.S. Marines (25 eventual PTSD cases and 25 non-PTSD comparison subjects) prior to their deployment overseas to war-zones in Iraq or Afghanistan. The panel of biomarkers dysregulated in peripheral blood cells of eventual PTSD cases prior to deployment was significantly enriched for immune genes, achieved 70% prediction accuracy in an independent sample based on the expression of 23 full-length transcripts, and attained 80% accuracy in an independent sample based on the expression of one exon from each of five genes. If the observed profiles of pre-deployment mRNA-expression in eventual PTSD cases can be further refined and replicated, they could suggest avenues for early intervention and prevention among individuals at high risk for trauma exposure. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Cortisol boosts risky decision-making behavior in men but not in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluen, Lisa Marieke; Agorastos, Agorastos; Wiedemann, Klaus; Schwabe, Lars

    2017-10-01

    Acute stress may escalate risky decision-making in men, while there is no such effect in women. Although first evidence links these gender-specific effects of stress to stress-induced changes in cortisol, whether elevated cortisol is indeed sufficient to boost risk-taking, whether a potential cortisol effect depends on simultaneous noradrenergic activation, and whether cortisol and noradrenergic activation exert distinct effects on risk-taking in men and women is unknown. In this experiment, we therefore set out to elucidate the impact of cortisol and noradrenergic stimulation on risky decision-making in men and women. In a fully-crossed, placebo-controlled, double-blind design, male and female participants received orally either a placebo, hydrocortisone, yohimbine, an alpha-2-adrenoceptor-antagonist leading to increased noradrenergic stimulation, or both drugs before completing the balloon analogue risk task, a validated measure of risk-taking. Overall, participants' choice was risk-sensitive as reflected in reduced responding in high- compared to moderate- and low-risk conditions. Cortisol, however, led to a striking increase in risk-taking in men, whereas it had no effect on risk-taking behavior in women. Yohimbine had no such effect and the gender-specific effect of cortisol was not modulated by yohimbine. Our data show that cortisol boosts risk-taking behavior in men but not in women. This differential effect of cortisol on risk-taking may drive gender differences in risky decision-making under stress. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Relationship power and sexual risk among women in community-based substance abuse treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Aimee N C; Tross, Susan; Dworkin, Shari L; Hu, Mei-Chen; Manuel, Jennifer; Pavlicova, Martina; Nunes, Edward V

    2009-11-01

    Relationship power has been highlighted as a major factor influencing women's safer sex practices. Little research, however, has specifically examined relationship power in drug-involved women, a population with increased risk for HIV transmission. Using baseline data from a National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network multisite trial of a women's HIV prevention intervention in community-based drug treatment programs, this paper examined the association between sexual relationship power and unprotected vaginal or anal sex. The Sexual Relationship Power Scale, a measure of relationship control and decision-making dominance, was used to assess the association between power and unprotected sex in relationships with primary male partners. It was hypothesized that increased relationship power would be associated with decreased unprotected sexual occasions, after controlling for relevant empirical and theoretical covariates. Findings show a more complex picture of the association between power and sexual risk in this population, with a main effect in the hypothesized direction for decision-making dominance but not for relationship control. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed, and future research directions for examining power constructs and developing interventions targeting relationship power among drug-involved women are suggested.

  6. A new computational account of cognitive control over reinforcement-based decision-making: Modeling of a probabilistic learning task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendehrouh, Sareh

    2015-11-01

    Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  8. Risk-based inservice testing program modifications at Palo Verde nuclear generating station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knauf, S.; Lindenlaub, B.; Linthicum, R.

    1996-01-01

    Arizona Public Service Company (APS) is investigating changes to the Palo Verde Inservice Testing (IST) Program that are intended to result in the reduction of the required test frequency for various valves in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Section XI IST program. The analytical techniques employed to select candidate valves and to demonstrate that these frequency reductions are acceptable are risk based. The results of the Palo Verde probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), updated in June 1994, and the risk significant determination performed as part of the implementation efforts for 10 CFR 50.65 (the maintenance rule) were used to select candidate valves for extended test intervals. Additional component level evaluations were conducted by an 'expert panel.' The decision to pursue these changes was facilitated by the ASME Risk-Based Inservice Testing Research Task Force for which Palo Verde is participating as a pilot plant. The NRC's increasing acceptance of cost beneficial licensing actions and risk-based submittals also provided incentive to seek these changes. Arizona Public Service is pursuing the risk-based IST program modification in order to reduce the unnecessary regulatory burden of the IST program through qualitative and quantitative analysis consistent with maintaining a high level of plant safety. The objectives of this project at Palo Verde are as follows: (1) Apply risk-based technologies to IST components to determine their risk significance (i.e., high or low). (2) Apply a combination of deterministic and risk-based methods to determine appropriate testing requirements for IST components including improvement of testing methods and frequency intervals for high-risk significant components. (3) Apply risk-based technologies to high-risk significant components identified by the open-quotes expert panelclose quotes and outside of the IST program to determine whether additional testing requirements are appropriate

  9. Variations in Decision-Making Profiles by Age and Gender: A Cluster-Analytic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, Rebecca; Strough, JoNell; Parker, Andrew M.; de Bruin, Wandi Bruine

    2015-01-01

    Using cluster-analysis, we investigated whether rational, intuitive, spontaneous, dependent, and avoidant styles of decision making (Scott & Bruce, 1995) combined to form distinct decision-making profiles that differed by age and gender. Self-report survey data were collected from 1,075 members of RAND’s American Life Panel (56.2% female, 18–93 years, Mage = 53.49). Three decision-making profiles were identified: affective/experiential, independent/self-controlled, and an interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Older people were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the independent/self-controlled profile. Women were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Interpersonally-oriented profiles are discussed as an overlooked but important dimension of how people make important decisions. PMID:26005238

  10. Variations in Decision-Making Profiles by Age and Gender: A Cluster-Analytic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, Rebecca; Strough, JoNell; Parker, Andrew M; de Bruin, Wandi Bruine

    2015-10-01

    Using cluster-analysis, we investigated whether rational, intuitive, spontaneous, dependent, and avoidant styles of decision making (Scott & Bruce, 1995) combined to form distinct decision-making profiles that differed by age and gender. Self-report survey data were collected from 1,075 members of RAND's American Life Panel (56.2% female, 18-93 years, M age = 53.49). Three decision-making profiles were identified: affective/experiential, independent/self-controlled, and an interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Older people were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the independent/self-controlled profile. Women were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Interpersonally-oriented profiles are discussed as an overlooked but important dimension of how people make important decisions.

  11. Cool but counterproductive: interactive, Web-based risk communications can backfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

    2011-08-25

    Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of "fill-in-the-blank" pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents' ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P graphic formats.

  12. Neural signatures of experience-based improvements in deterministic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Tremel, Joshua J.; Laurent, Patryk A.; Wolk, David A.; Wheeler, Mark E.; Fiez, Julie A.

    2016-01-01

    Feedback about our choices is a crucial part of how we gather information and learn from our environment. It provides key information about decision experiences that can be used to optimize future choices. However, our understanding of the processes through which feedback translates into improved decision-making is lacking. Using neuroimaging (fMRI) and cognitive models of decision-making and learning, we examined the influence of feedback on multiple aspects of decision processes across lear...

  13. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score': testing the clinical validity of a new risk assessment instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise; Alkier Gildberg, Frederik

    2017-08-01

    Unstructured risk assessment, as well as confounders (underlying reasons for the patient's risk behaviour and alliance), risk behaviour, and parameters of alliance, have been identified as factors that prolong the duration of mechanical restraint among forensic mental health inpatients. To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical restraint. The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. The three sub-scales (Confounders, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items, and the instrument can be used to support the clinical decision-making regarding the possibility of releasing the patient from mechanical restraint. The present three studies have clinically validated a short MR-CRAS scale that is currently being psychometrically tested in a larger study.

  14. Risk decisions and nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1987-11-01

    The risk concept is multidimensional, and much of its contents is lost in the conventional reduction to a unidimensional and quantifiable term. Eight major dimensions of the risk concept are discussed, among them the time factor and the lack-of-knowledge factor. The requirements of a rational discourse are discussed, in general and in relation to risk issues. It is concluded that no single method for the comparison and assessment of risks can be seen as the only rational method. Different methods can all be rational, although based on different values. Risk evaluations cannot be performed as expert assessments, divorced from the political decision process. Instead, risk evaluation must be seen as an essentially political process. Public participation is necessary in democratic decision-making on risks as well as on other issues. Important conclusions can be drawn for the management of nuclear waste, concerning specifications for the technical solution, the need for research on risk concepts, and the decision-making process. (orig.)

  15. Decision-making support system based on MAS for emergency response to nuclear accidents of marine pressurized-water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Dengke; Zhang Dafa; Jiang Wei; Chen Yonghong

    2007-01-01

    Emergency decision-making to Marine Pressurized-Water Reactor (MPWR) was severely restricted by the complex environment. To enhance the emergency decision-making ability of MPWR, reducing the effect of emergencies, an emergency Decision-making Support System (DSS) which based on Multi-agent System (MAS) was presented. In the system, the HLA/RTI was used as the support environment, and the structure and the Control Agent (SCA), Analyse Agent (AA), Countermeasure Agent (CA), Evaluation Agent (EVA) and Environment Agent (ENA) were designed. The MAS were with the characteristics of autonomy, reactivity and initiative, which were fully used in the system to make effective decision for emergencies. (authors)

  16. EFSA NDA Panel (EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies), 2014. Scientific Opinion on the substantiation of a health claim related to CranMax® and reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract pursuant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tetens, Inge

    related to CranMax® and reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract. The food that is the subject of the claim is CranMax®. The Panel considers that the food, CranMax®, which is the subject of the claim is sufficiently characterised...... in relation to the claimed effect. The Panel considers that reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract is a beneficial physiological effect. One human study from which conclusions could be drawn for the scientific substantiation...... of the claim did not show an effect of CranMax® on reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract. The Panel concludes that a cause and effect relationship has not been established between the consumption of CranMax® and reduction...

  17. No evidence that protein truncating variants in BRIP1 are associated with breast cancer risk: implications for gene panel testing

    OpenAIRE

    Easton, Douglas Frederick; Lesueur, Fabienne; Decker, Brennan; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Li, Jun; Allen, Jamie; Luccarini, Craig; Pooley, Karen Anne; Shah, Mitulkumar Nandlal; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Ahmad, Jamil; Thompson, Ella R; Damiola, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    Background BRCA1 interacting protein C-terminal helicase 1 (BRIP1) is one of the Fanconi Anaemia Complementation (FANC) group family of DNA repair proteins. Biallelic mutations in BRIP1 are responsible for FANC group J, and previous studies have also suggested that rare protein truncating variants in BRIP1 are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. These studies have led to inclusion of BRIP1 on targeted sequencing panels for breast cancer risk prediction. Metho...

  18. Predicting Internet risks: a longitudinal panel study of gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use among children and adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Louis

    2014-01-01

    This study used longitudinal panel survey data collected from 417 adolescents at 2 points in time 1 year apart. It examined relationships between Internet risks changes in Time 2 and social media gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use all measured at Time 1. By controlling for age, gender, education, and criterion variable scores in Internet addiction at Time 1, entertainment and instant messaging use at Time 1 significantly predicted increased Internet addiction measured at Time 2. The study also controlled for demographics and scores of criterion variables in Internet risks: targeted for harassment, privacy exposed, and pornographic or violent content consumed in Time 1. Gratifications-sought (including status-gaining, expressing opinions, and identity experimentation), Internet addiction symptoms (including withdrawal and negative life consequences), and social media use (in particular, blogs, and Facebook) significantly predicted Internet risk changes in Time 2. These findings suggest that, with their predictive power, these predictors at Time 1 could be used to identify those adolescents who are likely to develop Internet addiction symptoms and the likelihood of experiencing Internet risks based on their previous gratifications-sought, previous addiction symptoms, and their habits of social media use at Time 1. PMID:25750792

  19. Predicting Internet risks: a longitudinal panel study of gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use among children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Louis

    2014-01-01

    This study used longitudinal panel survey data collected from 417 adolescents at 2 points in time 1 year apart. It examined relationships between Internet risks changes in Time 2 and social media gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use all measured at Time 1. By controlling for age, gender, education, and criterion variable scores in Internet addiction at Time 1, entertainment and instant messaging use at Time 1 significantly predicted increased Internet addiction measured at Time 2. The study also controlled for demographics and scores of criterion variables in Internet risks: targeted for harassment, privacy exposed, and pornographic or violent content consumed in Time 1. Gratifications-sought (including status-gaining, expressing opinions, and identity experimentation), Internet addiction symptoms (including withdrawal and negative life consequences), and social media use (in particular, blogs, and Facebook) significantly predicted Internet risk changes in Time 2. These findings suggest that, with their predictive power, these predictors at Time 1 could be used to identify those adolescents who are likely to develop Internet addiction symptoms and the likelihood of experiencing Internet risks based on their previous gratifications-sought, previous addiction symptoms, and their habits of social media use at Time 1.

  20. Market Mechanism Design for Renewable Energy based on Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Bo, Wang; Jichun, Liu; Wenjiao, Zai; Pingliang, Zeng; Haobo, Shi

    2018-02-01

    Generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is an efficient market means for transforming supply structure of electric power into sustainable development pattern. But the trading is hampered by the output fluctuations of renewable energy and the cost differences between renewable energy and thermal power at present. In this paper, the external environmental cost (EEC) is defined and the EEC is introduced into the generation cost. At same time, the incentive functions of renewable energy and low-emission thermal power are designed, which are decreasing functions of EEC. On these bases, for the market risks caused by the random variability of EEC, the decision-making model of generation trading between renewable energy and thermal power is constructed according to the risk theory. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation results.

  1. Positive emotional context eliminates the framing effect in decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassotti, Mathieu; Habib, Marianne; Poirel, Nicolas; Aïte, Ania; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

    2012-10-01

    Dual-process theories have suggested that emotion plays a key role in the framing effect in decision-making. However, little is known about the potential impact of a specific positive or negative emotional context on this bias. We investigated this question with adult participants using an emotional priming paradigm. First, participants were presented with positive or negative affective pictures (i.e., pleasant vs. unpleasant photographs). Afterward, participants had to perform a financial decision-making task that was unrelated to the pictures previously presented. The results revealed that the presentation framed in terms of gain or loss no longer affected subjects' decision-making following specific exposure to emotionally pleasant pictures. Interestingly, a positive emotional context did not globally influence risk-taking behavior but specifically decreased the risk propensity in the loss frame. This finding confirmed that a positive emotional context can reduce loss aversion, and it strongly reinforced the dual-process view that the framing effect stems from an affective heuristic belonging to intuitive System 1.

  2. Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

    2015-11-20

    The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

  3. Solar panel assembly and support pad

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hawley, W.W.

    1980-10-07

    A solar panel assembly is described comprising at least one solar panel, support means for carrying said panel, and at least one support pad having a base plate, upstanding longitudinal sides, and spaced apart flange means for connection to said support means, said upstanding sides and opposed flange means defining an interior volume for receiving and holding weighting material.

  4. Online citizen panels as an advance in research and consultation – A Review of pilot results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Sharp

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper details a new model for local government consultation and research. The model involves a local government partnering with a university to establish an online panel of citizens that is then used for consultations and research on a range of local government issues over time. The model was evaluated across an 18-month pilot involving three metropolitan councils in South Australia, each running its own panel. This paper details the rationale behind the panels, steps involved in their establishment, and what the most effective recruitment methods were to build panel membership. The model’s ability to recruit a wide audience of citizens as members, including those who would not normally participate in local government matters, is examined, as well as citizen expectations of the panel and satisfaction with being a member. Finally, key learnings from the pilot are identified. The pilot results demonstrate that such an online panel model can be used effectively in the local government context. The panels achieved citizen membership wider than that historically seen in local government consultation and research, and were sustainable in terms of continued participation and high levels of citizen satisfaction. Since the pilot, the project has grown to include seven councils and almost 2500 citizens. This is further evidence that this model offers a way forward for enhanced citizen participation in local government decision-making and policy development.

  5. Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Based on Prioritized Aggregation Operator under Hesitant Intuitionistic Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peide Liu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic set (HIFLS that integrates both qualitative and quantitative evaluations is an extension of the linguistic set, intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS, hesitant fuzzy set (HFS and hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy set (HIFS. It can describe the qualitative evaluation information given by the decision-makers (DMs and reflect their uncertainty. In this article, we defined some new operational laws and comparative method for HIFLSs. Then, based on these operations, we propose two prioritized aggregation (PA operators for HIFLSs: prioritized weighted averaging operator for HIFLSs (HIFLPWA and prioritized weighted geometric operator for HIFLSs (HIFLPWG. Based on these aggregation operators, an approach for multi-attribute decision-making (MADM is developed under the environment of HIFLSs. Finally, a practical example is given to show the practicality and effectiveness of the developed approach by comparing with the other representative methods.

  6. [Shared decision-making based on equal information. Patient guidelines as a tool for patient counseling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sänger, Sylvia; Kopp, Ina; Englert, Gerhard; Brunsmann, Frank; Quadder, Bernd; Ollenschläger, Günter

    2007-06-15

    In discussions on the quality of cross-sectorial health-care services high importance is attributed to patient education and patient counseling, with guideline-based patient information being considered a crucial tool. Guideline-based patient information is supposed to serve patients as a decision-making basis and, in addition, to also support the implementation of the guidelines themselves. The article highlights how patient guidelines for National Disease Management Guidelines in Germany--within the scope of patient education and patient counseling--may provide a uniform information platform for physicians and patients aiming to promote shared decision-making. The authors will also address the issue which contents should be included in patient guidelines in order to meet these requirements and which measures are required to review their quality. The present paper continues the series of articles on the Program for German National Disease Management Guidelines.

  7. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Faherty, Denis

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty and risk are inherent in the nature of military action. The success of any joint military operation is based upon a willingness to balance risk with opportunity in taking bold, decisive action necessary to triumph in war...

  8. Influences on decision-making for young women undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassey, Rachael; O'Connor, Moira; Ives, Angela; Saunders, Christobel; Hardcastle, Sarah J

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the influences on decision-making of younger women (decision-making were identified: fear and anxiety, children, personal experiences with BC, health professional's influence. The decision to undergo BPM for younger women (account the way younger women perceive information given to them when discussing risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  10. Enhancing the role of science in the decision-making of the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allio, Lorenzo; Ballantine, Bruce; Meads, Richard

    2006-02-01

    Used well, science provides effective ways of identifying potential risks, protecting citizens, and using resources wisely. It enables government decisions to be based on evidence and provides a foundation for a rule-based framework that supports global trade. To ensure that the best available science becomes a key input in the decisions made by EU institutions, this abridged version of a working paper produced for the European Policy Centre, a leading, independent think tank, considers how science is currently used in the policy and decision-making processes of the EU, what the limitations of scientific evidence are, and how a risk assessment process based on scientific 'good practices' can be advantageous. Finally, the paper makes recommendations on how to improve the use of science by EU institutions.

  11. FPGA Implementation of Multilayer Perceptron for Modeling of Photovoltaic panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mekki, H.; Belhout, K.; Mellit, A.; Salhi, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Number of electronic applications using artificial neural network-based solutions has increased considerably in the last few years. However, their applications in photovoltaic systems are very limited. This paper introduces the preliminary result of the modeling and simulation of photovoltaic panel based on neural network and VHDL-language. In fact, an experimental database of meteorological data (irradiation, temperature) and output electrical generation signals of the PV-panel (current and voltage) has been used in this study. The inputs of the ANN-PV-panel are the daily total irradiation and mean average temperature while the outputs are the current and voltage generated from the panel. Firstly, a dataset of 4x364 have been used for training the network. Subsequently, the neural network (MLP) corresponding to PV-panel is simulated using VHDL language based on the saved weights and bias of the network. Simulation results of the trained MLP-PV panel based on Matlab and VHDL are presented. The proposed PV-panel model based ANN and VHDL permit to evaluate the performance PV-panel using only the environmental factors and involves less computational efforts, and it can be used for predicting the output electrical energy from the PV-panel

  12. Empirical Descriptions of Criminal Sentencing Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus H. Wandall

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the widespread use of statistical causal modelling to describe criminal sentencing decision-making empirically in Scandinavia. The article describes the characteristics of this model, and on this basis discusses three aspects of sentencing decision-making that the model does not capture: 1 the role of law and legal structures in sentencing, 2 the processes of constructing law and facts as they occur in the processes of handling criminal cases, and 3 reflecting newer organisational changes to sentencing decision-making. The article argues for a stronger empirically based design of sentencing models and for a more balanced use of different social scientific methodologies and models of sentencing decision-making.

  13. Elements for the Design of a Decision-making Information System for activities related to genetically modified organisms: Contributions from a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benavides Molineros, Julia; Aguirre Ramirez, Nestor

    2012-01-01

    In Colombia, decisions related to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) must be supported by assessment of the risk to biodiversity, human health and agricultural production. Based on this assessment, authorities can make decisions involving authorization or denial of the requested activities. The rationality of the decision-making process is very well established with respect to human health, particularly toxicity and allergenicity, but that is not the case for biodiversity issues. One of the biggest problems in this area is the lack of definition of a decision-making methodology, which leads to decisions made in an intuitive and non-systematic manner. Authorities in the field have recognized the need for a decision-making information system to help solve this situation. A proposal for the basic structure of a decision-making information system oriented to authorities involved in the process is presented. The proposal was developed based on a review of the main existing methodologies for GMO risk assessment and on a case study of the gene flow from GMOs to wild relatives. The structure is presented as a broad entity-relationship model from which the detailed design of the system can be developed. The proposal emphasizes the documentation of the decision protocols and the rationality of use of the information inputs.

  14. A grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of hydrogen technologiess in Life Cycle Sustainability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzardo, Alessandro; Ren, Jingzheng; Mazzi, Anna

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this research is to develop a grey-based group decision-making methodology for the selection of the best renewable energy technology (including hydrogen) using a life cycle sustainability perspective. The traditional grey relational analysis has been modified to better address...... the issue of uncertainty. The proposed methodology allows multi-person to participate in the decision-making process and to give linguistic evaluation on the weights of the criteria and the performance of the alternative technologies. In this paper, twelve hydrogen production technologies have been assessed...... using the proposed methodology, electrolysis of water technology by hydropower has been considered to be the best technology for hydrogen production according to the decision-making group....

  15. Multicenter validation of cancer gene panel-based next-generation sequencing for translational research and molecular diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, B; Endris, V; Lassmann, S; Weichert, W; Pfarr, N; Schirmacher, P; Kovaleva, V; Werner, M; Bonzheim, I; Fend, F; Sperveslage, J; Kaulich, K; Zacher, A; Reifenberger, G; Köhrer, K; Stepanow, S; Lerke, S; Mayr, T; Aust, D E; Baretton, G; Weidner, S; Jung, A; Kirchner, T; Hansmann, M L; Burbat, L; von der Wall, E; Dietel, M; Hummel, M

    2018-04-01

    The simultaneous detection of multiple somatic mutations in the context of molecular diagnostics of cancer is frequently performed by means of amplicon-based targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS). However, only few studies are available comparing multicenter testing of different NGS platforms and gene panels. Therefore, seven partner sites of the German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) performed a multicenter interlaboratory trial for targeted NGS using the same formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimen of molecularly pre-characterized tumors (n = 15; each n = 5 cases of Breast, Lung, and Colon carcinoma) and a colorectal cancer cell line DNA dilution series. Detailed information regarding pre-characterized mutations was not disclosed to the partners. Commercially available and custom-designed cancer gene panels were used for library preparation and subsequent sequencing on several devices of two NGS different platforms. For every case, centrally extracted DNA and FFPE tissue sections for local processing were delivered to each partner site to be sequenced with the commercial gene panel and local bioinformatics. For cancer-specific panel-based sequencing, only centrally extracted DNA was analyzed at seven sequencing sites. Subsequently, local data were compiled and bioinformatics was performed centrally. We were able to demonstrate that all pre-characterized mutations were re-identified correctly, irrespective of NGS platform or gene panel used. However, locally processed FFPE tissue sections disclosed that the DNA extraction method can affect the detection of mutations with a trend in favor of magnetic bead-based DNA extraction methods. In conclusion, targeted NGS is a very robust method for simultaneous detection of various mutations in FFPE tissue specimens if certain pre-analytical conditions are carefully considered.

  16. Emerging methods and tools for environmental risk assessment, decision-making, and policy for nanomaterials: summary of NATO Advanced Research Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linkov, I; Steevens, J; Adlakha-Hutcheon, G

    2009-01-01

    and the environment. A unique feature of this workshop was its interdisciplinary nature and focus on the practical needs of policy decision makers. Workshop presentations and discussion panels were structured along four main themes: technology and benefits, human health risk, environmental risk, and policy......Nanomaterials and their associated technologies hold promising opportunities for the development of new materials and applications in a wide variety of disciplines, including medicine, environmental remediation, waste treatment, and energy conservation. However, current information regarding...... the environmental effects and health risks associated with nanomaterials is limited and sometimes contradictory. This article summarizes the conclusions of a 2008 NATO workshop designed to evaluate the wide-scale implications (e.g., benefits, risks, and costs) of the use of nanomaterials on human health...

  17. Intuitionistic Trapezoidal Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Based on Prospect Choquet Integral Operator and Grey Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahang Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In consideration of the interaction among attributes and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude, this paper proposes an intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and prospect theory. With respect to a multiattribute group decision-making problem, the prospect value functions of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are aggregated by the proposed operator; then a grey relation-projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is developed to obtain the ranking of alternatives; the firefly algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of projection for obtaining the best projection direction of grey correlation projection values, and the grey correlation projection values are evaluated, which are applied to classify, rank, and prefer the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.

  18. Framework for ethical decision-making based on mission, vision and values of the institution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotalik, Jaro; Covino, Cathy; Doucette, Nadine; Henderson, Steve; Langlois, Michelle; McDaid, Karen; Pedri, Louisa M

    2014-06-01

    The authors led the development of a framework for ethical decision-making for an Academic Health Sciences Centre. They understood the existing mission, vision, and values statement (MVVs) of the centre as a foundational assertion that embodies an ethical commitment of the institution. Reflecting the Patient and Family Centred Model of Care the institution is living, the MVVs is a suitable base on which to construct an ethics framework. The resultant framework consists of a set of questions for each of the MVVs. Users of the framework are expected to identify two or more possible decisions to address the issue at hand and then, by applying the provided sequence of questions to each, examine these options and determine the overall ethically preferable decision. The construction of such a framework requires the creative involvement of the institution's staff. Thus the development of the framework can represent a training process in ethical decision-making as well as advance the ethical atmosphere of the institution. This novel approach has the advantage of placing the MVVs on active duty, at the centre of ethical decision-making, and lifts it from its otherwise relative obscurity in most institutions.

  19. Volumetry of human molars with flat panel-based volume CT in vitro

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hannig, C.; Krieger, E.; Dullin, C.; Merten, H.A.; Attin, T.; Grabbe, E.; Heidrich, G.

    2006-01-01

    The flat panel-based volume computed tomography (fpVCT) is a new CT device applicable for experimental, three-dimensional evaluation of teeth at a resolution of about 150 microm in the high contrast region. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fpVCT was suitable for quantification of the

  20. More Heads Are Better than One: School-Based Decision-Making in Varied School Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokoena, Sello; Machaisa, Rebotile

    2018-01-01

    In this multi-case qualitative study the degree to which school-based decision-making (SBDM) is understood and conceptualised by the members of school governing bodies (SGBs)--educators, chairpersons of SGBs, principals, and learner representative councils-as well the extent to which decisions were shared among the various groups represented on…

  1. The contribution of science to risk-based decision-making: lessons from the development of full-scale treatment measures for acidic mine waters at Wheal Jane, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Paul L; Coulton, Richard H; Froggatt, Eric C

    2005-02-01

    The use of risk-based decision-making in environmental management is often assumed to rely primarily on the availability of robust scientific data and insights, while in practice socio-economic criteria are often of considerable importance. However, the relative contributions to decision-making made by scientific and socio-economic inputs are rarely assessed, and even less commonly reported. Such an assessment has been made for a major remediation project in southwest England, in which some 300 l/s of highly acidic, metalliferous mine waters are now being treated using oxidation and chemical neutralisation. In the process of reaching the decision to commission the treatment plant, a wide range of scientific studies were undertaken, including: biological impact assessments, hydrogeological investigations of the effect of pumping on the flooded mine system, and hydrological and geochemical characterisation, together with integrated catchment modelling, of pollutant sources and pathways. These investigations revealed that, despite the spectacular nature of the original mine water outburst in 1992, the ecology of the Fal estuary remains remarkably robust. No scientific evidence emerged of any grounds for concern over the estuarine ecology, even if mine water were left to flow untreated. However, a rare ecological resource known as "maerl" (a form of calcified seaweed) is harvested annually in the estuary, providing significant revenue to the local economy and underpinning the 'clean' image of local sea water. Social and environmental benefit surveys revealed strong public perceptions that any visible discoloration in the estuary must indicate a diminution in quality of the maerl, to the detriment of both the public image and economy of the area. This factor proved sufficient to justify the continued pump-and-treat operations at the mine site. Although the decisive factor in the end was socio-economic in nature, robust assessment of this factor could not have been made

  2. Orthogonal model and experimental data for analyzing wood-fiber-based tri-axial ribbed structural panels in bending

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinghao Li; John F. Hunt; Shaoqin Gong; Zhiyong Cai

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of 3-dimensional engineered structural panels (3DESP) made from wood-fiber-based laminated paper composites. Since the existing models for calculating the mechanical behavior of core configurations within sandwich panels are very complex, a new simplified orthogonal model (SOM) using an equivalent element has been developed. This model...

  3. Biological Select Agents and Toxins: Risk-Based Assessment Management and Oversight.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burnett, LouAnn Crawford; Brodsky, Benjamin H.

    2016-12-01

    Sandia National Laboratories' International Biological and Chemical Threat Reduction (SNL/IBCTR) conducted, on behalf of the Federal Select Agent Program (FSAP), a review of risk assessment in modern select agent laboratories. This review and analysis consisted of literature review, interviews of FSAP staff, entities regulated by FSAP, and deliberations of an expert panel. Additionally, SNL/IBCTR reviewed oversight mechanisms used by industries, US agencies, and other countries for high-consequence risks (e.g, nuclear, chemical, or biological materials, aviation, off-shore drilling, etc.) to determine if alternate oversight mechanisms existed that might be applicable to FSAP oversight of biological select agents and toxins. This report contains five findings, based on these reviews and analyses, with recommendations and suggested actions for FSAP to consider.

  4. Artificial Neural Network based control for PV/T panel to track optimum thermal and electrical power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Ammar, Majed; Chaabene, Maher; Chtourou, Zied

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We establish a state model of PV/T panel. ► We study the effect of mass flow rate on PV/T efficiency. ► A real time PV/T control algorithm is proposed. ► A model based optimal thermal and electrical power operation point is tracked. - Abstract: As solar energy is intermittent, many algorithms and electronics have been developed to track the maximum power generation from photovoltaic and thermal panels. Following technological advances, these panels are gathered into one unit: PV/T system. PV/T delivers simultaneously two kinds of power: electrical power and thermal power. Nevertheless, no control systems have been developed in order to track maximum power generation from PV/T system. This paper suggests a PV/T control algorithm based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to detect the optimal power operating point (OPOP) by considering PV/T model behavior. The OPOP computes the optimum mass flow rate of PV/T for a considered irradiation and ambient temperature. Simulation results demonstrate great concordance between OPOP model based calculation and ANN outputs.

  5. A decision-making model based on a spiking neural circuit and synaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hui; Bu, Yijie; Dai, Dawei

    2017-10-01

    To adapt to the environment and survive, most animals can control their behaviors by making decisions. The process of decision-making and responding according to cues in the environment is stable, sustainable, and learnable. Understanding how behaviors are regulated by neural circuits and the encoding and decoding mechanisms from stimuli to responses are important goals in neuroscience. From results observed in Drosophila experiments, the underlying decision-making process is discussed, and a neural circuit that implements a two-choice decision-making model is proposed to explain and reproduce the observations. Compared with previous two-choice decision making models, our model uses synaptic plasticity to explain changes in decision output given the same environment. Moreover, biological meanings of parameters of our decision-making model are discussed. In this paper, we explain at the micro-level (i.e., neurons and synapses) how observable decision-making behavior at the macro-level is acquired and achieved.

  6. Ethically-based clinical decision-making in physical therapy: process and issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Elspeth; Geddes, E Lynne; Larin, Hélène

    2005-01-01

    The identification and consideration of relevant ethical issues in clinical decision-making, and the education of health care professionals (HCPs) in these skills are key factors in providing quality health care. This qualitative study explores the way in which physical therapists (PTs) integrate ethical issues into clinical practice decisions and identifies ethical themes used by PTs. A purposive sample of eight PTs was asked to describe a recent ethically-based clinical decision. Transcribed interviews were coded and themes identified related to the following categories: 1) the integration of ethical issues in the clinical decision-making process, 2) patient welfare, 3) professional ethos of the PT, and 4) health care economics and business practices. Participants readily described clinical situations involving ethical issues but rarely identified specific conflicting ethical issues in their description. Ethical dilemmas were more frequently resolved when there were fewer emotional sequelae associated with the dilemma, and the PT had a clear understanding of professional ethos, valued patient autonomy, and explored a variety of alternative actions before implementing one. HCP students need to develop a clear professional ethos and an increased understanding of the economic factors that will present ethical issues in practice.

  7. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  8. Engineering and management of IT-based service systems an intelligent decision-making support systems approach

    CERN Document Server

    Gomez, Jorge; Garrido, Leonardo; Perez, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS) are specialized IT-based systems that support some or several phases of the individual, team, organizational or inter-organizational decision making process by deploying some or several intelligent mechanisms. This book pursues the following academic aims: (i) generate a compendium of quality theoretical and applied contributions in Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS) for engineering and management IT-based service systems (ITSS); (ii)  diffuse scarce knowledge about foundations, architectures and effective and efficient methods and strategies for successfully planning, designing, building, operating, and evaluating i-DMSS for ITSS, and (iii) create an awareness of, and a bridge between ITSS and i-DMSS academicians and practitioners in the current complex and dynamic engineering and management ITSS organizational. The book presents a collection of 11 chapters referring to relevant topics for both IT service systems and i-DMSS including: pr...

  9. Maternal bodies and medicines: a commentary on risk and decision-making of pregnant and breastfeeding women and health professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDonald Karalyn

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The perceived risk/benefit balance of prescribed and over-the-counter (OTC medicine, as well as complementary therapies, will significantly impact on an individual’s decision-making to use medicine. For women who are pregnant or breastfeeding, this weighing of risks and benefits becomes immensely more complex because they are considering the effect on two bodies rather than one. Indeed the balance may lie in opposite directions for the mother and baby/fetus. The aim of this paper is to generate a discussion that focuses on the complexity around risk, responsibility and decision-making of medicine use by pregnant and breastfeeding women. We will also consider the competing discourses that pregnant and breastfeeding women encounter when making decisions about medicine. Discussion Women rely not only on biomedical information and the expert knowledge of their health care professionals but on their own experiences and cultural understandings as well. When making decisions about medicines, pregnant and breastfeeding women are influenced by their families, partners and their cultural societal norms and expectations. Pregnant and breastfeeding women are influenced by a number of competing discourses. “Good” mothers should manage and avoid any risks, thereby protecting their babies from harm and put their children’s needs before their own – they should not allow toxins to enter the body. On the other hand, “responsible” women take and act on medical advice – they should take the medicine as directed by their health professional. This is the inherent conflict in medicine use for maternal bodies. Summary The increased complexity involved when one body’s actions impact the body of another – as in the pregnant and lactating body – has received little acknowledgment. We consider possibilities for future research and methodologies. We argue that considering the complexity of issues for maternal bodies can improve our

  10. An imaging-based photometric and colorimetric measurement method for characterizing OLED panels for lighting applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yiting; Narendran, Nadarajah; Tan, Jianchuan; Mou, Xi

    2014-09-01

    The organic light-emitting diode (OLED) has demonstrated its novelty in displays and certain lighting applications. Similar to white light-emitting diode (LED) technology, it also holds the promise of saving energy. Even though the luminous efficacy values of OLED products have been steadily growing, their longevity is still not well understood. Furthermore, currently there is no industry standard for photometric and colorimetric testing, short and long term, of OLEDs. Each OLED manufacturer tests its OLED panels under different electrical and thermal conditions using different measurement methods. In this study, an imaging-based photometric and colorimetric measurement method for OLED panels was investigated. Unlike an LED that can be considered as a point source, the OLED is a large form area source. Therefore, for an area source to satisfy lighting application needs, it is important that it maintains uniform light level and color properties across the emitting surface of the panel over a long period. This study intended to develop a measurement procedure that can be used to test long-term photometric and colorimetric properties of OLED panels. The objective was to better understand how test parameters such as drive current or luminance and temperature affect the degradation rate. In addition, this study investigated whether data interpolation could allow for determination of degradation and lifetime, L70, at application conditions based on the degradation rates measured at different operating conditions.

  11. Prof. Cristoforo Benvenuti stands in front of solar panels installed on the roof of Geneva airport. These panels, produced by the commpany SRB, are based on a technology developed at CERN by Cristoforo Benvenuti.

    CERN Document Server

    Maximilien Brice

    2012-01-01

    Prof. Cristoforo Benvenuti stands in front of solar panels installed on the roof of Geneva airport. These panels, produced by the commpany SRB, are based on a technology developed at CERN by Cristoforo Benvenuti.

  12. Emotion and decision-making under uncertainty: Physiological arousal predicts increased gambling during ambiguity but not risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FeldmanHall, Oriel; Glimcher, Paul; Baker, Augustus L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2016-10-01

    Uncertainty, which is ubiquitous in decision-making, can be fractionated into known probabilities (risk) and unknown probabilities (ambiguity). Although research has illustrated that individuals more often avoid decisions associated with ambiguity compared to risk, it remains unclear why ambiguity is perceived as more aversive. Here we examine the role of arousal in shaping the representation of value and subsequent choice under risky and ambiguous decisions. To investigate the relationship between arousal and decisions of uncertainty, we measure skin conductance response-a quantifiable measure reflecting sympathetic nervous system arousal-during choices to gamble under risk and ambiguity. To quantify the discrete influences of risk and ambiguity sensitivity and the subjective value of each option under consideration, we model fluctuating uncertainty, as well as the amount of money that can be gained by taking the gamble. Results reveal that although arousal tracks the subjective value of a lottery regardless of uncertainty type, arousal differentially contributes to the computation of value-that is, choice-depending on whether the uncertainty is risky or ambiguous: Enhanced arousal adaptively decreases risk-taking only when the lottery is highly risky but increases risk-taking when the probability of winning is ambiguous (even after controlling for subjective value). Together, this suggests that the role of arousal during decisions of uncertainty is modulatory and highly dependent on the context in which the decision is framed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Memory-Based Decision-Making with Heuristics: Evidence for a Controlled Activation of Memory Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, Patrick H.; Pachur, Thorsten; Meier, Stefanie; Bien, Siegfried; Jost, Kerstin; Rosler, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Many of our daily decisions are memory based, that is, the attribute information about the decision alternatives has to be recalled. Behavioral studies suggest that for such decisions we often use simple strategies (heuristics) that rely on controlled and limited information search. It is assumed that these heuristics simplify decision-making by…

  14. RBCA-based approaches to ecological risk assessment for TPH-contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hummell, R.; Vedagiri, U.

    1995-01-01

    The RBCA guidelines proposed by ASTM form an evaluation and decision-making framework for sites potentially contaminated by petroleum releases. They present a three-tiered approach of decreasing conservatism and increasing site-specificity that primarily evaluates risks to human health. While RBCA includes consideration of environmental impacts, there are no specific recommendations on how this is to be achieved. A RBCA-based ecological risk assessment approach was developed for TPH-contaminated areas in Alaska. The approach presents a habitat-based selection process for surrogate chemicals and indicator chemicals of ecological relevance, evaluation of ecotoxicity, derivation of matrix-specific Tier 1 RBSLs (including soils) and determination of Tier 2 and 3 SSTLS. Chemicals are considered by class, aquatic (freshwater and saltwater) and terrestrial habitats are evaluated independently, and chemical concentrations are screened in all media of concern (air, soil, water, sediment). Data needs and decision points specific to ecological receptors are identified for each tier of the approach. Other aspects of the approach include consideration of contaminant migration pathways and habitats that are typical of Arctic conditions. Areas where ecological and human risk concerns may overlap are identified

  15. Risk Metrics and Measures for an Extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wielenberg, A.; Loeffler, H.; Hasnaoui, C.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Jan, P.; La Rovere, S.; Siklossy, T.; Vitazkova, J.; Raimond, E.

    2016-01-01

    This report provides a review of the main used risk measures for Level 1 and Level 2 PSA. It depicts their advantages, limitations and disadvantages and develops some more precise risk measures relevant for extended PSAs and helpful for decision-making. This report does not recommend or suggest any quantitative value for the risk measures. It does not discuss in details decision-making based on PSA results neither. The choice of one appropriate risk measure or a set of risk measures depends on the decision making approach as well as on the issue to be decided. The general approach for decision making aims at a multi-attribute approach. This can include the use of several risk measures as appropriate. Section 5 provides some recommendations on the main risk metrics to be used for an extended PSA. For Level 1 PSA, Fuel Damage Frequency and Radionuclide Mobilization Frequency are recommended. For Level 2 PSA, the characterization of loss of containment function and a total risk measure based on the aggregated activity releases of all sequences rated by their frequencies is proposed. (authors)

  16. Human Decision-Making under Limited Time

    OpenAIRE

    Ortega, Pedro A.; Stocker, Alan A.

    2016-01-01

    Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e. decision-makers are bounded in their rationality. Here we experimentally tested the predictions made by a formalization of bounded rationality based on ideas from statistical mechanics and information-theory. We systematically tested human subjects in their ability t...

  17. Cool Decision-Making in Adolescents with Behavior Disorder and/or Mild-to-Borderline Intellectual Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bexkens, Anika; Jansen, Brenda R J; Van der Molen, Maurits W; Huizenga, Hilde M

    2016-02-01

    Adolescents with Behavior Disorders (BD), Mild-to-Borderline Intellectual Disability (MBID), and with both BD and MBID (BD + MBID) are known to take more risks than normal controls. To examine the processes underlying this increased risk-taking, the present study investigated cool decision-making strategies in 479 adolescents (12-18 years, 55.9 % male) from these four groups. Cool decision-making was assessed with the paper-and-pencil Gambling Machine Task. This task, in combination with advanced latent group analysis, allows for an assessment of decision strategies. Results indicated that adolescents with BD and controls were almost equivalent in their decision-making strategies, whereas adolescents with MBID and adolescents with BD + MBID were characterized by suboptimal decision-making strategies, with only minor differences between these two clinical groups. These findings may have important clinical implications, as they suggest that risk taking in adolescents with MBID and in adolescents with BD + MBID can be (partly) attributed to the strategies that these adolescents use to make their decisions. Interventions may therefore focus on an improvement of these strategies.

  18. Driver-Array Based Flat-Panel Loudspeakers: Theoretical Background and Design Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, David Allan

    This thesis relates to the simulation and design of flat-panel loudspeakers using moving-coil driver elements. A brief history of the industry is given, including a collection of products and patents from 1925 until the present, an overview of research papers, and a discussion of current products available. The mechanics of bending flat panels are developed with respect to localized driving forces, both in the frequency domain and the time domain as an impulse response. These simulations are compared to measurements on prototype panels. Additional resonant elements influence the behavior of the system: an optional ported rear enclosure and the resonant characteristics of the drivers. The governing equations for these systems are derived and solutions are implemented using equivalent mechanical circuits and numerical methods. The idea of using driver arrays to independently actuate modes of the panel is discussed at length with respect to modal addressability, modal spillover, and experimental validation. The numerical approach to determining the optimal driver placement for a given set of modes is derived and experimentally validated. An investigation of the acoustic behavior of flat panel loudspeakers is presented, using mechanical simulation results to predict the acoustic radiation. The simulations are compared to measurements and found to accurately predict important mechanical and acoustical behaviors. It is demonstrated that a driver array, with the proper biasing, is capable of creating a flat panel loudspeaker which acts more like a piston than a "diffuse radiator" flat panel loudspeaker. The techniques of "Modal Crossover Networks" are introduced, which use multi-band filters to bias the driver array differently for different frequency bands, optimized for audio reproduction. The question of how many drivers are necessary for a modal crossover network is addressed and found to be dependent on the estimated quality factor (Q) of the panel material and edge

  19. Installed Base Registration of Decentralised Solar Panels with Applications in Crisis Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarsen, R.; Janssen, M.; Ramkisoen, M.; Biljecki, F.; Quak, W.; Verbree, E.

    2015-08-01

    In case of a calamity in the Netherlands - e.g. a dike breach - parts of the nationwide electric network can fall out. In these occasions it would be useful if decentralised energy sources of the Smart Grid would contribute to balance out the fluctuations of the energy network. Decentralised energy sources include: solar energy, wind energy, combined heat and power, and biogas. In this manner, parts of the built environment - e.g. hospitals - that are in need of a continuous power flow, could be secured of this power. When a calamity happens, information about the Smart Grid is necessary to control the crisis and to ensure a shared view on the energy networks for both the crisis managers and network operators. The current situation of publishing, storing and sharing data of solar energy has been shown a lack of reliability about the current number, physical location, and capacity of installed decentralised photovoltaic (PV) panels in the Netherlands. This study focuses on decentralised solar energy in the form of electricity via PV panels in the Netherlands and addresses this challenge by proposing a new, reliable and up-to-date database. The study reveals the requirements for a registration of the installed base of PV panels in the Netherlands. This new database should serve as a replenishment for the current national voluntary registration, called Production Installation Register of Energy Data Services Netherland (EDSN-PIR), of installed decentralised PV panel installations in the Smart Grid, and provide important information in case of a calamity.

  20. INSTALLED BASE REGISTRATION OF DECENTRALISED SOLAR PANELS WITH APPLICATIONS IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Aarsen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In case of a calamity in the Netherlands - e.g. a dike breach - parts of the nationwide electric network can fall out. In these occasions it would be useful if decentralised energy sources of the Smart Grid would contribute to balance out the fluctuations of the energy network. Decentralised energy sources include: solar energy, wind energy, combined heat and power, and biogas. In this manner, parts of the built environment - e.g. hospitals - that are in need of a continuous power flow, could be secured of this power. When a calamity happens, information about the Smart Grid is necessary to control the crisis and to ensure a shared view on the energy networks for both the crisis managers and network operators. The current situation of publishing, storing and sharing data of solar energy has been shown a lack of reliability about the current number, physical location, and capacity of installed decentralised photovoltaic (PV panels in the Netherlands. This study focuses on decentralised solar energy in the form of electricity via PV panels in the Netherlands and addresses this challenge by proposing a new, reliable and up-to-date database. The study reveals the requirements for a registration of the installed base of PV panels in the Netherlands. This new database should serve as a replenishment for the current national voluntary registration, called Production Installation Register of Energy Data Services Netherland (EDSN-PIR, of installed decentralised PV panel installations in the Smart Grid, and provide important information in case of a calamity.

  1. Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

    2017-08-01

    The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

  2. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naime, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  3. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

    2017-03-15

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  4. Acceptability and Perceived Benefits and Risks of Public and Patient Involvement in Health Care Policy: A Delphi Survey in Belgian Stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleemput, Irina; Christiaens, Wendy; Kohn, Laurence; Léonard, Christian; Daue, François; Denis, Alain

    2015-06-01

    In systems with public health insurance, coverage decisions should reflect social values. Deliberation among stakeholders could achieve this goal, but rarely involves patients and citizens directly. This study aimed at evaluating the acceptability, and the perceived benefits and risks, of public and patient involvement (PPI) in coverage decision making to Belgian stakeholders. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted among all stakeholder groups. The survey was constructed on the basis of interviews with 10 key stakeholders and a review of the literature on participation models. Consensus was defined as 65% or more of the respondents agreeing with a statement and less than 15% disagreeing. Eighty stakeholders participated in both rounds. They were defined as the Delphi panel. Belgian stakeholders are open toward PPI in coverage decision processes. Benefits are expected to exceed risks. The preferred model for involvement is to consult citizens or patients, within the existing decision-making structures and at specific milestones in the process. Consulting citizens and patients is a higher level of involvement than merely informing them and a lower level than letting them participate actively. Consultation involves asking nonbinding advice on (parts of) the decision problem. According to the Delphi panel, the benefits of PPI could be increasing awareness among members of the general public and patients about the challenges and costs of health care, and enriched decision processes with expertise by experience from patients. Potential risks include subjectivity, insufficient resources to participate and weigh on the process, difficulties in finding effective ways to express a collective opinion, the risk of manipulation, and lobbying or power games of other stakeholders. PPI in coverage decision-making processes is acceptable to Belgian stakeholders, be it in different ways for different types of decisions. Benefits are expected to outweigh risks. Copyright © 2015

  5. Fundamental issues of rationalization in corporate decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Marek Jacek Stankiewicz

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with the problems of the improvement of the decision-making process that is composed of two sub-systems: preparations for making a decision and taking it. Based on the multi-aspect characteristics of the essence and conditions of the decision-making process a referential model of decision-making has been proposed. The model assumes the existence of two principles that apparently may seem contradictory – the principle of rationality and the principle of creative uniqueness. Dec...

  6. Self-esteem and risky decision-making: an ERP study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Juan; Dedovic, Katarina; Zhang, Qinglin

    2010-12-01

    Self-esteem, a value one places on oneself, influences one's cognitive, emotional and behavioral responses across various situations. In the case of risky decision-making, high self-esteem (SE) individuals rely on their positive self-views and tend to be less defensive in response to a risky task; low SE individuals, on the contrary, tend to have fewer accessible positive resources and thus, are more prone to risk-aversion. While past studies have provided evidence for a link between self-esteem and a behaviorally-risky response, no study has explored the relation between self-esteem and the electrophysiological correlates of risky response. Therefore, the current study investigated the correlates of risky decision-making in high SE compared to low SE participants using event-related potentials (ERP) technology in 28 undergraduate students playing a blackjack game. The results showed that there was no difference between the high SE participants and the low SE participants with respect to the behavioral assessments of the risk-taking decision-making. However, for the electrophysiological data, we observed that the amplitude of P2 (150-300 ms) was more positive in the high SE participants compared to the low SE participants over the central-posterior scalp region. Dipole source analysis indicated that this positive component was generated in posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). These findings suggest that the high SE participants experienced more emotional signals than the low SE participants during decision-making.

  7. OLED Luminaire with Panel Integrated Drivers and Advanced Controls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Michael [Acuity Brands Lighting, Inc., Atlanta, GA (United States); Spindler, Jeff [OLEDWorks, Rochester, NY (United States)

    2017-01-31

    For this DOE award, Acuity Brands Lighting developed a novel OLED luminaire system featuring panel-integrated drivers at each individual OLED panel. The luminaire has a base station that receives user commands and performs AC/DC conversion. A power line communication (PLC) protocol is used to provide both power and digital control to each panel. A 66-panel CanvisTM luminaire using state-of-art OLED panels based on this system was successfully constructed. This is a first demonstration of such a luminaire architecture. It is also the first known implementation of this number of independently addressable nodes with a PLC protocol. This luminaire system architecture has added benefits in the flexibility of using multiple panel vendors for a given product, forward compatibility with future panels, and reduced luminaire wiring complexity and assembly time.

  8. Theoretical foundations of human decision-making in agent-based land use models – A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Geert J.; Müller, B.; Buchmann, C.M.; Dressler, Gunnar; Guo, C.; Hase, N.; Hoffmann, F.; John, F.; Klassert, C.; Lauf, T.; Liebelt, V.; Nolzen, H.; Pannicke, N.; Schulze, J.; Weise, H.; Schwarz, N.

    2017-01-01

    Recent reviews stated that the complex and context-dependent nature of human decision-making resulted in ad-hoc representations of human decision in agent-based land use change models (LUCC ABMs) and that these representations are often not explicitly grounded in theory. However, a systematic survey

  9. Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardin, Luis G; Miller, Craig R; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Krone, Stephen M; Joyce, Paul; Baumgaertner, Bert O

    2016-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual's perceived risk of infection.

  10. The Different Moral Bases of Patient and Surrogate Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brudney, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    My topic is a problem with our practice of surrogate decision-making in health care, namely, the problem of the surrogate who is not doing her job-the surrogate who cannot be reached or the surrogate who seems to refuse to understand or to be unable to understand the clinical situation. The analysis raises a question about the surrogate who simply disagrees with the medical team. One might think that such a surrogate is doing her job-the team just doesn't like how she is doing it. My analysis raises the question of whether (or perhaps when) she should be overridden. In approaching this problem, I focus not on the range of difficulties in practice but on the underlying moral conceptual issue. My concern will be to show that the moral values that underpin patient decision-making are fundamentally different from those that underpin surrogate decision-making. Identifying the distinctions will set parameters for any successful solution to the "Who should decide?" A patient has a specific kind of moral right to make her own medical decisions. A surrogate has no analogous moral right to decide for someone else. We want the surrogate to make the decision because we believe that she has a relevant epistemological advantage over anyone else on the scene. If and when she has no such advantage or if she refuses or is unable to use it, then there might not be sufficient reason to let her be the decision-maker. © 2018 The Hastings Center.

  11. Factors influencing the surgical decision for the treatment of degenerative lumbar stenosis in a preference-based shared decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Joong; Park, Jae-Young; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

    2015-02-01

    In a preference-based shared decision-making system, several subjective and/or objective factors such as pain severity, degree of disability, and the radiological severity of canal stenosis may influence the final surgical decision for the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). However, our understanding of the shared decision-making process and the significance of each factor remain primitive. In the present study, we aimed to investigate which factors influence the surgical decision for the treatment of LSS when using a preference-based, shared decision-making process. We included 555 patients, aged 45-80 years, who used a preference-based shared decision-making process and were treated conservatively or surgically for chronic leg and/or back pain caused by LSS from April 2012 to December 2012. Univariate and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of surgical decision making with age, sex, body mass index, symptom duration, radiologic stenotic grade, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), visual analog scale (VAS) scores for back and leg pain, Short Form-36 (SF-36) subscales, and motor weakness. In univariate analysis, the following variables were associated with a higher odds of a surgical decision for LSS: male sex; the VAS score for leg pain; ODI; morphological stenotic grades B, C, and D; motor weakness; and the physical function, physical role, bodily pain, social function, and emotional role of the SF-36 subscales. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, ODI, morphological stenotic grades C and D, and motor weakness were significantly associated with a higher possibility of a surgical decision. Motor weakness, male sex, morphological stenotic grade, and the amount of disability are critical factors leading to a surgical decision for LSS when using a preference-based shared decision-making process.

  12. The use of video-based patient education for shared decision-making in the treatment of prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomella, L G; Albertsen, P C; Benson, M C; Forman, J D; Soloway, M S

    2000-08-01

    Increased consumerism, patient empowerment, and autonomy are creating a health care revolution. In recent years, the public has become better informed and more sophisticated. An extraordinary amount of treatment advice from books, the media, and the Internet is available to patients today, although much of it is confusing or conflicting. Consequently, the traditional, paternalistic doctor-patient relationship is yielding to a more consumerist one. The new dynamic is based on a participatory ethic and a change in the balance of power. This shared decision-making creates a true partnership between professionals and patients, in which each contributes equally to decisions about treatment or care. Evidence suggests that in diseases such as prostate cancer, where there may be a number of appropriate treatment options for a particular patient, shared decision-making may lead to improved clinical and quality-of-life outcomes. This article explores the evolving relationship between the physician and patient, the pros and cons of shared decision-making, and the use of video technology in the clinical setting. The authors review the use of medical decision aids, including a video-based educational program called CHOICES, in the treatment of prostate cancer and other diseases.

  13. Panel cutting method: new approach to generate panels on a hull in Rankine source potential approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hee-Jong Choi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, a new hull panel generation algorithm, namely panel cutting method, was developed to predict flow phenomena around a ship using the Rankine source potential based panel method, where the iterative method was used to satisfy the nonlinear free surface condition and the trim and sinkage of the ship was taken into account. Numerical computations were performed to investigate the validity of the proposed hull panel generation algorithm for Series 60 (CB=0.60 hull and KRISO container ship (KCS, a container ship designed by Maritime and Ocean Engineering Research Institute (MOERI. The computational results were validated by comparing with the existing experimental data.

  14. Panel cutting method: new approach to generate panels on a hull in Rankine source potential approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hee-Jong; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Park, Il-Ryong; Kim, Jin

    2011-12-01

    In the present study, a new hull panel generation algorithm, namely panel cutting method, was developed to predict flow phenomena around a ship using the Rankine source potential based panel method, where the iterative method was used to satisfy the nonlinear free surface condition and the trim and sinkage of the ship was taken into account. Numerical computations were performed to investigate the validity of the proposed hull panel generation algorithm for Series 60 (CB=0.60) hull and KRISO container ship (KCS), a container ship designed by Maritime and Ocean Engineering Research Institute (MOERI). The computational results were validated by comparing with the existing experimental data.

  15. Group Decision-Making for Hesitant Fuzzy Sets Based on Characteristic Objects Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahzad Faizi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There are many real-life problems that, because of the need to involve a wide domain of knowledge, are beyond a single expert. This is especially true for complex problems. Therefore, it is usually necessary to allocate more than one expert to a decision process. In such situations, we can observe an increasing importance of uncertainty. In this paper, the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM method called the Characteristic Objects Method (COMET is extended to solve problems for Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making (MCGDM in a hesitant fuzzy environment. It is a completely new idea for solving problems of group decision-making under uncertainty. In this approach, we use L-R-type Generalized Fuzzy Numbers (GFNs to get the degree of hesitancy for an alternative under a certain criterion. Therefore, the classical COMET method was adapted to work with GFNs in group decision-making problems. The proposed extension is presented in detail, along with the necessary background information. Finally, an illustrative numerical example is provided to elaborate the proposed method with respect to the support of a decision process. The presented extension of the COMET method, as opposed to others’ group decision-making methods, is completely free of the rank reversal phenomenon, which is identified as one of the most important MCDM challenges.

  16. The effect of a new lifetime-cardiovascular-risk display on patients' motivation to participate in shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegan, Nikita Roman A; Kürwitz, Sarah Anna; Kramer, Lena Kathrin; Heinzel-Gutenbrunner, Monika; Adarkwah, Charles Christian; Popert, Uwe; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

    2018-06-09

    This study investigated the effects of three different risk displays used in a cardiovascular risk calculator on patients' motivation for shared decision-making (SDM). We compared a newly developed time-to-event (TTE) display with two established absolute risk displays (i.e. emoticons and bar charts). The accessibility, that is, how understandable, helpful, and trustworthy patients found each display, was also investigated. We analysed a sample of 353 patients recruited in general practices. After giving consent, patients were introduced to one of three fictional vignettes with low, medium or high cardiovascular risk. All three risk displays were shown in a randomized order. Patients were asked to rate each display with regard to motivation for SDM and accessibility. Two-factorial repeated measures analyses of variance were conducted to compare the displays and investigate possible interactions with age. Regarding motivation for SDM, the TTE elicited the highest motivation, followed by the emoticons and bar chart (p motivation for SDM and accessibility when compared to established displays using emoticons and a bar chart. If future research can replicate these results in real-life consultations, the TTE display will be a valuable addition to current risk calculators and decision aids by improving patients' participation.

  17. The development of an Infrared Environmental System for TOPEX Solar Panel Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noller, E.

    1994-01-01

    Environmental testing and flight qualification of the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft solar panels were performed with infrared (IR) lamps and a control system that were newly designed and integrated. The basic goal was more rigorous testing of the costly panels' new composite-structure design without jeopardizing their safety. The technique greatly reduces the costs and high risks of testing flight solar panels.

  18. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  19. Electricity consumption and economic growth: Exploring panel-specific differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanfil, Fatih; Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the long- and short-run dynamics between electricity consumption and economic activities, using panel data of per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of 160 countries for the period of 1980–2010, accounting for the degree of electricity dependence and the level of urbanization. Furthermore, in order to capture the differences in this relationship, the full sample is divided into various subsamples based on countries' income levels, regional locations and OECD memberships. This framework is argued and found to be appropriate since the causal links and inferences arising therefrom differ considerably among the subsamples, which led us to conclude that the electricity-growth nexus is highly sensitive to regional differences, countries' income levels, urbanization rates and supply risks. -- Highlights: •The causal relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is investigated. •Cointegration techniques are used for 160 countries and 13 subsamples. •Urbanization and electricity trade are accounted for as additional covariates. •Causal inferences are found to be associated with panel-specific differences. •Policy issues are discussed based on the study results

  20. Integrated analysis on static/dynamic aeroelasticity of curved panels based on a modified local piston theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhichun; Zhou, Jian; Gu, Yingsong

    2014-10-01

    A flow field modified local piston theory, which is applied to the integrated analysis on static/dynamic aeroelastic behaviors of curved panels, is proposed in this paper. The local flow field parameters used in the modification are obtained by CFD technique which has the advantage to simulate the steady flow field accurately. This flow field modified local piston theory for aerodynamic loading is applied to the analysis of static aeroelastic deformation and flutter stabilities of curved panels in hypersonic flow. In addition, comparisons are made between results obtained by using the present method and curvature modified method. It shows that when the curvature of the curved panel is relatively small, the static aeroelastic deformations and flutter stability boundaries obtained by these two methods have little difference, while for curved panels with larger curvatures, the static aeroelastic deformation obtained by the present method is larger and the flutter stability boundary is smaller compared with those obtained by the curvature modified method, and the discrepancy increases with the increasing of curvature of panels. Therefore, the existing curvature modified method is non-conservative compared to the proposed flow field modified method based on the consideration of hypersonic flight vehicle safety, and the proposed flow field modified local piston theory for curved panels enlarges the application range of piston theory.

  1. A qualitative study on community pharmacists' decision-making process when making a diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinopoulou, Vassiliki; Summerfield, Paul; Rutter, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Self-care policies are increasingly directing patients to seek advice from community pharmacists. This means pharmacists need to have sound diagnostic decision-making skills to enable them to recognise a variety of conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate the process by which pharmacists manage patient signs and symptoms and to explore their use of decision-making for diagnostic purposes. Data were collected through semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with community pharmacists working in England, between August 2013 and November 2014. Pharmacists were asked to share their experiences on how they performed patient consultations, and more specifically how they would approach a hypothetical headache scenario. As part of the interview, their sources of knowledge and experience were also explored. Framework analysis was used to identify themes and subthemes. Eight interviews were conducted with pharmacists who had a wide range of working practice, from 1 year through to 40 years of experience. The pharmacists' main motivations during consultations were product selection and risk minimisation. Their questioning approach and decision-making relied heavily on mnemonic methods. This led to poor quality information gathering-although pharmacists acknowledged they needed to "delve deeper" but were often unable to articulate how or why. Some pharmacists exhibited elements of clinical reasoning in their consultations, but this seemed, mostly, to be unconscious and subsequently applied inappropriately. Overall, pharmacists exhibited poor decision-making ability, and often decisions were based on personal belief and experiences rather than evidence. Community pharmacists relied heavily on mnemonic methods to manage patients' signs and symptoms with diagnosis-based decision-making being seldom employed. These findings suggest practicing pharmacists should receive more diagnostic training. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Control, Contingency and Delegation in Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Stephen R.

    1979-01-01

    Proposes a model which emphasizes the delegation of decision-making authority and managerial control of operations. Suggests that risks can be reduced by using (1) a contingency approach to delegation, (2) decision rules for consistency, (3) decision models for specific situations, (4) vital indicator reports, (5) management by objectives, and (6)…

  3. GENERAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF REPORTING AND MANAGEMENT REPORTING RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA I. LUNGU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Highlighting risks and uncertainties reporting based on a literature review research. Objectives: The delimitation of risk management models and uncertainties in fundamental research. Research method: Fundamental research study directed to identify the relevant risks’ models presented in entities’ financial statements. Uncertainty is one of the fundamental coordinates of our world. As showed J.K. Galbraith (1978, the world now lives under the age of uncertainty. Moreover, we can say that contemporary society development could be achieved by taking decisions under uncertainty, though, risks. Growing concern for the study of uncertainty, its effects and precautions led to the rather recent emergence of a new science, science of hazards (les cindyniques - l.fr. (Kenvern, 1991. Current analysis of risk are dominated by Beck’s (1992 notion that a risk society now exists whereby we have become more concerned about our impact upon nature than the impact of nature upon us. Clearly, risk permeates most aspects of corporate but also of regular life decision-making and few can predict with any precision the future. The risk is almost always a major variable in real-world corporate decision-making, and managers that ignore it are in a real peril. In these circumstances, a possible answer is assuming financial discipline with an appropriate system of incentives.

  4. Differential effects of insular and ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions on risky decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, L; Bechara, A; Damasio, H; Aitken, M R F; Sahakian, B J; Robbins, T W

    2008-05-01

    The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and insular cortex are implicated in distributed neural circuitry that supports emotional decision-making. Previous studies of patients with vmPFC lesions have focused primarily on decision-making under uncertainty, when outcome probabilities are ambiguous (e.g. the Iowa Gambling Task). It remains unclear whether vmPFC is also necessary for decision-making under risk, when outcome probabilities are explicit. It is not known whether the effect of insular damage is analogous to the effect of vmPFC damage, or whether these regions contribute differentially to choice behaviour. Four groups of participants were compared on the Cambridge Gamble Task, a well-characterized measure of risky decision-making where outcome probabilities are presented explicitly, thus minimizing additional learning and working memory demands. Patients with focal, stable lesions to the vmPFC (n = 20) and the insular cortex (n = 13) were compared against healthy subjects (n = 41) and a group of lesion controls (n = 12) with damage predominantly affecting the dorsal and lateral frontal cortex. The vmPFC and insular cortex patients showed selective and distinctive disruptions of betting behaviour. VmPFC damage was associated with increased betting regardless of the odds of winning, consistent with a role of vmPFC in biasing healthy individuals towards conservative options under risk. In contrast, patients with insular cortex lesions failed to adjust their bets by the odds of winning, consistent with a role of the insular cortex in signalling the probability of aversive outcomes. The insular group attained a lower point score on the task and experienced more 'bankruptcies'. There were no group differences in probability judgement. These data confirm the necessary role of the vmPFC and insular regions in decision-making under risk. Poor decision-making in clinical populations can arise via multiple routes, with functionally dissociable effects of vmPFC and

  5. The Improvement of Thermal Insulating Concrete Panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Ali Nasser Ali

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The Iraqi houses flattening the roof by a concrete panel, and because of the panels on the top directly exposed to the solar radiation become unbearably hot and cold during the summer and winter. The traditional concrete panel components are cement, sand, and aggregate, which have a poor thermal property. The usage of materials with low thermal conductivity with no negative reflects on its mechanical properties gives good improvements to the thermal properties of the concrete panel. The practical part of this work was built on a multi-stage mixing plan. In the first stage the mixing ratio based on the ratios of the sand to cement. The second stage mixing ratios based on replacing the coarse aggregate quantities with the Alabaster aggregates, and the third stage the mixing ratios based on the replacement of wood ash instead of the sand. While the fourth stage mixing ratios based on decreasing the thermal conductivity and increasing mechanical properties by adding a multilayer of a plastic net. The result shows that using a concrete panel with components (cement, sand, coarse aggregate, wood ash, and Alabaster aggregates with a mass ratio of (1:1:2:1:1 and 3-plastic layers, gives the best improvement of the thermal properties. Where, the thermal conductivity is reduced by 42% and the specific heat increased by 41.2% as compared to the traditional concrete panel mixing ratio, with mechanical properties are agreed with the Iraqi standards.

  6. A social-technological epistemology of clinical decision-making as mediated by imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baalen, Sophie; Carusi, Annamaria; Sabroe, Ian; Kiely, David G

    2017-10-01

    In recent years there has been growing attention to the epistemology of clinical decision-making, but most studies have taken the individual physicians as the central object of analysis. In this paper we argue that knowing in current medical practice has an inherently social character and that imaging plays a mediating role in these practices. We have analyzed clinical decision-making within a medical expert team involved in diagnosis and treatment of patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH), a rare disease requiring multidisciplinary team involvement in diagnosis and management. Within our field study, we conducted observations, interviews, video tasks, and a panel discussion. Decision-making in the PH clinic involves combining evidence from heterogeneous sources into a cohesive framing of a patient, in which interpretations of the different sources can be made consistent with each other. Because pieces of evidence are generated by people with different expertise and interpretation and adjustments take place in interaction between different experts, we argue that this process is socially distributed. Multidisciplinary team meetings are an important place where information is shared, discussed, interpreted, and adjusted, allowing for a collective way of seeing and a shared language to be developed. We demonstrate this with an example of image processing in the PH service, an instance in which knowledge is distributed over multiple people who play a crucial role in generating an evaluation of right heart function. Finally, we argue that images fulfill a mediating role in distributed knowing in 3 ways: first, as enablers or tools in acquiring information; second, as communication facilitators; and third, as pervasively framing the epistemic domain. With this study of clinical decision-making in diagnosis and treatment of PH, we have shown that clinical decision-making is highly social and mediated by technologies. The epistemology of clinical decision-making needs

  7. Ethical Decision-Making: The Role of Self-Monitoring, Future Orientation, and Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carla Bon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the influence of individual factors (self monitoring, temporal orientation on social networking, and their relationship with unethical decision-making. The study used surveys to measure the unethical intentions and social network data of 129 professionals. Data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The findings provided evidence that individual factors influence the development of social networks and, along with self-monitoring, the likelihood of unethical decision-making. In particular, being in positions of lower network centrality increased individuals’ risk of unethical intention. One explanation stems from the need for high situation control to reduce risk and ensure the success of an event, which only a closed network can provide. However, ethical low self-monitor women were also found to have low centrality, so social networks alone do not explain ethical decision-making. This research represents a step forward in our understanding of ethical decision-making through the adoption of multiple and simultaneous factors, proposing an integrated theory of individual and situational factors influencing unethical options.

  8. Failure to utilize feedback causes decision-making deficits among excessive Internet gamers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yuan-Wei; Chen, Pin-Ru; Chen, Chang; Wang, Ling-Jiao; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Xue, Gui; Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Qin-Xue; Yip, Sarah W; Fang, Xiao-Yi

    2014-11-30

    Internet gaming addiction (IGA) is an increasing mental health issue worldwide. Previous studies have revealed decision-making impairments in excessive Internet gamers (EIGs) with high symptoms of IGA. However, the role of feedback processing in decision-making deficits among EIGs remains unknown. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of feedback processing on decision-making deficits under risk among EIGs, using the Game of Dice Task (GDT) and a modified version of the GDT in which no feedback was provided. Twenty-six EIGs and 26 matched occasional Internet gamers (OIGs) were recruited. The results showed: (a) OIGs performed better on the original GDT than on the modified GDT (no feedback condition); however, EIGs performed similarly on both tasks; (b) EIGs and OIGs performed equally on the modified GDT; however, EIGs chose more disadvantageous options than OIGs on the original GDT; (c) EIGs utilized feedback less frequently on the original GDT relative to OIGs. These results suggest that EIGs are not able to utilize feedback to optimize their decisions, which could underlie their poor decision-making under risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  10. Achieving continuous improvement in reductions in foodborne listeriosis: A risk-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, Lone

    2005-01-01

    likely due to consumption of contaminated soft cheeses such as queso fresco and queso blanco. The International Life Sciences Institute Risk Science Institute Expert Panel concluded that certain foods pose a high risk for causing listeriosis. High-risk foods have all of the following properties: (1) have...... the potential for contamination with L. monocytogenes; (2) support the growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers; (3) are ready to eat; (4) require refrigeration; and (5) are stored for an extended period of time. Control strategies are needed in the food chain from preharvest through consumption to minimize...... the likelihood that food will become contaminated by L. monocytogenes and to prevent the growth of the organism to high numbers. The Expert Panel identified three main strategies for ensuring continuous improvement in reducing foodborne listeriosis: (1) preventing contamination of foods with L. monocytogenes; (2...

  11. Empirical research on risk taking of listed financial institutions based on the perspective of corporate governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Hao

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available After the financial crisis in 2008, the risk control of financial institutions has once again become the focus of attention. This paper selects the unbalanced panel data of 44 listed financial institutions in China from 2009 to 2013 for empirical analysis to study the risk taking of China’s listed financial institutions based on the perspective of corporate governance. Then the paper analyzes the effect of corporate governance on the risk taking of listed financial institutions based on the empirical analysis from four aspects. The results indicate that there is a significant negative correlation between the proportion of the largest shareholder’s shareholding and risk taking; a significant positive correlation between the size of the board of supervisors and risk taking; a significant positive correlation between the executive pay and risk taking, and a significant negative correlation between the equity incentive and risk taking. By comparison, the factors related to governance of board of directors have no significant effect on the risk taking of listed financial institutions.

  12. Under pressure: response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Catherine L; Minati, Ludovico; Harrison, Neil A; Ward, Jamie; Critchley, Hugo D

    2011-01-01

    When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency.

  13. Neural signatures of experience-based improvements in deterministic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremel, Joshua J; Laurent, Patryk A; Wolk, David A; Wheeler, Mark E; Fiez, Julie A

    2016-12-15

    Feedback about our choices is a crucial part of how we gather information and learn from our environment. It provides key information about decision experiences that can be used to optimize future choices. However, our understanding of the processes through which feedback translates into improved decision-making is lacking. Using neuroimaging (fMRI) and cognitive models of decision-making and learning, we examined the influence of feedback on multiple aspects of decision processes across learning. Subjects learned correct choices to a set of 50 word pairs across eight repetitions of a concurrent discrimination task. Behavioral measures were then analyzed with both a drift-diffusion model and a reinforcement learning model. Parameter values from each were then used as fMRI regressors to identify regions whose activity fluctuates with specific cognitive processes described by the models. The patterns of intersecting neural effects across models support two main inferences about the influence of feedback on decision-making. First, frontal, anterior insular, fusiform, and caudate nucleus regions behave like performance monitors, reflecting errors in performance predictions that signal the need for changes in control over decision-making. Second, temporoparietal, supplementary motor, and putamen regions behave like mnemonic storage sites, reflecting differences in learned item values that inform optimal decision choices. As information about optimal choices is accrued, these neural systems dynamically adjust, likely shifting the burden of decision processing from controlled performance monitoring to bottom-up, stimulus-driven choice selection. Collectively, the results provide a detailed perspective on the fundamental ability to use past experiences to improve future decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Range Sensor-Based Efficient Obstacle Avoidance through Selective Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Youngbo; Kim, Gon-Woo

    2018-03-29

    In this paper, we address a collision avoidance method for mobile robots. Many conventional obstacle avoidance methods have been focused solely on avoiding obstacles. However, this can cause instability when passing through a narrow passage, and can also generate zig-zag motions. We define two strategies for obstacle avoidance, known as Entry mode and Bypass mode. Entry mode is a pattern for passing through the gap between obstacles, while Bypass mode is a pattern for making a detour around obstacles safely. With these two modes, we propose an efficient obstacle avoidance method based on the Expanded Guide Circle (EGC) method with selective decision-making. The simulation and experiment results show the validity of the proposed method.

  15. Range Sensor-Based Efficient Obstacle Avoidance through Selective Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngbo Shim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we address a collision avoidance method for mobile robots. Many conventional obstacle avoidance methods have been focused solely on avoiding obstacles. However, this can cause instability when passing through a narrow passage, and can also generate zig-zag motions. We define two strategies for obstacle avoidance, known as Entry mode and Bypass mode. Entry mode is a pattern for passing through the gap between obstacles, while Bypass mode is a pattern for making a detour around obstacles safely. With these two modes, we propose an efficient obstacle avoidance method based on the Expanded Guide Circle (EGC method with selective decision-making. The simulation and experiment results show the validity of the proposed method.

  16. Trust-Based Working Time and Organizational Performance: Evidence from German Establishment-Level Panel Data

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Beckmann; Istvàn Hegedüs

    2011-01-01

    This paper empirically examines the impact of trust-based working time on firm performance using panel data from German establishments. Trust-based working time is a human resource management practice that involves a high degree of worker autonomy in terms of scheduling individual working time. From the theoretical viewpoint, trust-based working time may affect worker motivation positively as well as negatively. Therefore, at the establishment level the performance effects of trust-based work...

  17. Faculty in Faith-Based Institutions: Participation in Decision-Making and Its Impact on Job Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metheny, Glen A.; West, G. Bud; Winston, Bruce E.; Wood, J. Andy

    2015-01-01

    This study examined full-time faculty in Christian, faith-based colleges and universities and investigated the type of impact their participation in the decision-making process had on job satisfaction. Previous studies have examined relationships among faculty at state universities and community colleges, yet little research has been examined in…

  18. An ergonomics based design research method for the arrangement of helicopter flight instrument panels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alppay, Cem; Bayazit, Nigan

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we study the arrangement of displays in flight instrument panels of multi-purpose civil helicopters following a user-centered design method based on ergonomics principles. Our methodology can also be described as a user-interface arrangement methodology based on user opinions and preferences. This study can be outlined as gathering user-centered data using two different research methods and then analyzing and integrating the collected data to come up with an optimal instrument panel design. An interview with helicopter pilots formed the first step of our research. In that interview, pilots were asked to provide a quantitative evaluation of basic interface arrangement principles. In the second phase of the research, a paper prototyping study was conducted with same pilots. The final phase of the study entailed synthesizing the findings from interviews and observational studies to formulate an optimal flight instrument arrangement methodology. The primary results that we present in our paper are the methodology that we developed and three new interface arrangement concepts, namely relationship of inseparability, integrated value and locational value. An optimum instrument panel arrangement is also proposed by the researchers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Component Degradation Susceptibilities As The Bases For Modeling Reactor Aging Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.

    2010-01-01

    The extension of nuclear power plant operating licenses beyond 60 years in the United States will be necessary if we are to meet national energy needs while addressing the issues of carbon and climate. Characterizing the operating risks associated with aging reactors is problematic because the principal tool for risk-informed decision-making, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is not ideally-suited to addressing aging systems. The components most likely to drive risk in an aging reactor - the passives - receive limited treatment in PRA, and furthermore, standard PRA methods are based on the assumption of stationary failure rates: a condition unlikely to be met in an aging system. A critical barrier to modeling passives aging on the wide scale required for a PRA is that there is seldom sufficient field data to populate parametric failure models, and nor is there the availability of practical physics models to predict out-year component reliability. The methodology described here circumvents some of these data and modeling needs by using materials degradation metrics, integrated with conventional PRA models, to produce risk importance measures for specific aging mechanisms and component types. We suggest that these measures have multiple applications, from the risk-screening of components to the prioritization of materials research.

  20. Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica; Deng, Mario

    2018-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body's organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a