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Sample records for risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality

  1. Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

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    Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

    2006-02-01

    A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

  2. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

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    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  3. Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

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    Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2018-04-01

    Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

  4. Performance of risk-adjusted control charts to monitor in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; de Jonge, Evert; Cook, David A.; Peek, Niels

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Increases in case-mix adjusted mortality may be indications of decreasing quality of care. Risk-adjusted control charts can be used for in-hospital mortality monitoring in intensive care units by issuing a warning signal when there are more deaths than expected. The aim of this study was

  5. Impact of selected risk factors on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: The construct quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combines mortality and overall health status and can be used to quantify the impact of risk factors on population health. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity...... Health Survey 2000, and Danish EQ-5D values. RESULTS: The quality-adjusted life expectancy of 25-year-olds was 10-11 QALYs shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke. The difference in life expectancy was 9-10 years. Men and women with high alcohol consumption could expect to lose about 5...... and 3 QALYs, respectively. Sedentary persons could expect to have about 7 fewer QALYs than physically active persons. Obesity shortened QALYs by almost 3 for men and 6 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and obesity strongly reduce life expectancy and health...

  6. Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmussen TB

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Bøjer Rasmussen, Sinna Pilgaard Ulrichsen, Mette Nørgaard Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark Background: Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes.Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses.Materials and methods: We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations.Results: Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals’ estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54. In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Conclusion: The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most

  7. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

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    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  8. Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

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    Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

    2015-03-01

    A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

  9. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

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    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  10. Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F., E-mail: s_kudo@rea.or.jp [Instituto of Radiation Epidemiology, Radiation Effects Association, 1-9-16 Kajicho, Chiyoda-ku, 101-0044 Tokyo (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

  11. Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F.

    2015-10-01

    Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

  12. Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

    2005-09-15

    Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data.

  13. Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

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    Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    2017-12-01

    We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

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    Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

    2018-06-01

    Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

  15. Terminal illness and the increased mortality risk of conventional antipsychotics in observational studies: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luijendijk, Hendrika J; de Bruin, Niels C; Hulshof, Tessa A; Koolman, Xander

    2016-02-01

    Numerous large observational studies have shown an increased risk of mortality in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. Health authorities have warned against use of these drugs. However, terminal illness is a potentially strong confounder of the observational findings. So, the objective of this study was to systematically assess whether terminal illness may have biased the observational association between conventional antipsychotics and risk of mortality in elderly patients. Studies were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, the references of selected studies and articles referring to selected studies (Web of Science). Inclusion criteria were (i) observational studies that estimated (ii) the risk of all-cause mortality in (iii) new elderly users of (iv) conventional antipsychotics compared with atypical antipsychotics or no use. Two investigators assessed the characteristics of the exposure and reference groups, main results, measured confounders and methods used to adjust for unmeasured confounders. We identified 21 studies. All studies were based on administrative medical and pharmaceutical databases. Sicker and older patients received conventional antipsychotics more often than new antipsychotics. The risk of dying was especially high in the first month of use, and when haloperidol was administered per injection or in high doses. Terminal illness was not measured in any study. Instrumental variables that were used were also confounded by terminal illness. We conclude that terminal illness has not been adjusted for in observational studies that reported an increased risk of mortality risk in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. As the validity of the evidence is questionable, so is the warning based on it. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrance, R A; Dorsch, M F; Sapsford, R J; Mackintosh, A F; Greenwood, D C; Jackson, B M; Morrell, C; Robinson, M B; Hall, A S

    2001-08-11

    Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Observational study. 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of -4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

  17. Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Challenges in assessing hospital-level stroke mortality as a quality measure: comparison of ischemic, intracerebral hemorrhage, and total stroke mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Ying; Holloway, Robert G; Pan, Wenqin; Peterson, Eric D

    2012-06-01

    Public reporting efforts currently profile hospitals based on overall stroke mortality rates, yet the "mix" of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke cases may impact this rate. Using the 2005 to 2006 New York state data, we examined the degree to which hospital stroke mortality rankings varied regarding ischemic versus hemorrhagic versus total stroke. Observed/expected ratio was calculated using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Inpatient Quality Indicator software. The observed/expected ratio and outlier status based on stroke types across hospitals were examined using Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and weighted κ. Overall 30-day stroke mortality rates were 15.2% and varied from 11.3% for ischemic stroke and 37.3% for intracerebral hemorrhage. Hospital risk-adjusted ischemic stroke observed/expected ratio was weakly correlated with its own intracerebral hemorrhage observed/expected ratio (r=0.38). When examining hospital performance group (mortality better, worse, or no different than average), disagreement was observed in 35 of 81 hospitals (κ=0.23). Total stroke mortality observed/expected ratio and rankings were correlated with intracerebral hemorrhage (r=0.61 and κ=0.36) and ischemic stroke (r=0.94 and κ=0.71), but many hospitals still switched classification depending on mortality metrics. However, hospitals treating a higher percent of hemorrhagic stroke did not have a statistically significant higher total stroke mortality rate relative to those treating fewer hemorrhagic strokes. Hospital stroke mortality ratings varied considerably depending on whether ischemic, hemorrhagic, or total stroke mortality rates were used. Public reporting of stroke mortality measures should consider providing risk-adjusted outcome on separate stroke types.

  20. Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

    2009-02-01

    Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

  1. What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

  2. Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

    2014-09-01

    To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  3. Red blood cell transfusion and mortality in trauma patients: risk-stratified analysis of an observational study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Perel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Haemorrhage is a common cause of death in trauma patients. Although transfusions are extensively used in the care of bleeding trauma patients, there is uncertainty about the balance of risks and benefits and how this balance depends on the baseline risk of death. Our objective was to evaluate the association of red blood cell (RBC transfusion with mortality according to the predicted risk of death.A secondary analysis of the CRASH-2 trial (which originally evaluated the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality in trauma patients was conducted. The trial included 20,127 trauma patients with significant bleeding from 274 hospitals in 40 countries. We evaluated the association of RBC transfusion with mortality in four strata of predicted risk of death: 50%. For this analysis the exposure considered was RBC transfusion, and the main outcome was death from all causes at 28 days. A total of 10,227 patients (50.8% received at least one transfusion. We found strong evidence that the association of transfusion with all-cause mortality varied according to the predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction 50% predicted risk of death (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.47-0.74, p<0.0001. Transfusion was associated with an increase in fatal and non-fatal vascular events (OR 2.58, 95% CI 2.05-3.24, p<0.0001. The risk associated with RBC transfusion was significantly increased for all the predicted risk of death categories, but the relative increase was higher for those with the lowest (<6% predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction <0.0001. As this was an observational study, the results could have been affected by different types of confounding. In addition, we could not consider haemoglobin in our analysis. In sensitivity analyses, excluding patients who died early; conducting propensity score analysis adjusting by use of platelets, fresh frozen plasma, and cryoprecipitate; and adjusting for country produced results that were similar.The association of transfusion

  4. Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

    2017-05-01

    To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMIBMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

  5. Adult mortality attributable to preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan: a comparative risk assessment.

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    Nayu Ikeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000-154,000 and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000-119,000, respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000-58,000, high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000-43,000, high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000-39,000, and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000-35,000. In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3-1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7 if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. CONCLUSIONS

  6. Observed to expected or logistic regression to identify hospitals with high or low 30-day mortality?

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    Helgeland, Jon; Clench-Aas, Jocelyne; Laake, Petter; Veierød, Marit B.

    2018-01-01

    Introduction A common quality indicator for monitoring and comparing hospitals is based on death within 30 days of admission. An important use is to determine whether a hospital has higher or lower mortality than other hospitals. Thus, the ability to identify such outliers correctly is essential. Two approaches for detection are: 1) calculating the ratio of observed to expected number of deaths (OE) per hospital and 2) including all hospitals in a logistic regression (LR) comparing each hospital to a form of average over all hospitals. The aim of this study was to compare OE and LR with respect to correctly identifying 30-day mortality outliers. Modifications of the methods, i.e., variance corrected approach of OE (OE-Faris), bias corrected LR (LR-Firth), and trimmed mean variants of LR and LR-Firth were also studied. Materials and methods To study the properties of OE and LR and their variants, we performed a simulation study by generating patient data from hospitals with known outlier status (low mortality, high mortality, non-outlier). Data from simulated scenarios with varying number of hospitals, hospital volume, and mortality outlier status, were analysed by the different methods and compared by level of significance (ability to falsely claim an outlier) and power (ability to reveal an outlier). Moreover, administrative data for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, and hip fracture from Norwegian hospitals for 2012–2014 were analysed. Results None of the methods achieved the nominal (test) level of significance for both low and high mortality outliers. For low mortality outliers, the levels of significance were increased four- to fivefold for OE and OE-Faris. For high mortality outliers, OE and OE-Faris, LR 25% trimmed and LR-Firth 10% and 25% trimmed maintained approximately the nominal level. The methods agreed with respect to outlier status for 94.1% of the AMI hospitals, 98.0% of the stroke, and 97.8% of the hip fracture hospitals

  7. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

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    Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

  8. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF 1 mice and beagles exposed to 60 Co γ-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis

  9. Life Expectancy and Cause-Specific Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Cohort Study Quantifying Relationships in Ethnic Subgroups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Alison K; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Emsley, Richard; Buchan, Iain; Sattar, Naveed; Rutter, Martin K; Ashcroft, Darren M

    2017-03-01

    This study 1 ) investigated life expectancy and cause-specific mortality rates associated with type 2 diabetes and 2 ) quantified these relationships in ethnic subgroups. This was a cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 383 general practices in England with linked hospitalization and mortality records. A total of 187,968 patients with incident type 2 diabetes from 1998 to 2015 were matched to 908,016 control subjects. Abridged life tables estimated years of life lost, and a competing risk survival model quantified cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). A total of 40,286 deaths occurred in patients with type 2 diabetes. At age 40, white men with diabetes lost 5 years of life and white women lost 6 years compared with those without diabetes. A loss of between 1 and 2 years was observed for South Asians and blacks with diabetes. At age older than 65 years, South Asians with diabetes had up to 1.1 years' longer life expectancy than South Asians without diabetes. Compared with whites with diabetes, South Asians with diabetes had lower adjusted risks for mortality from cardiovascular (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.75, 0.89), cancer (HR 0.43; 95% CI 0.36, 0.51), and respiratory diseases (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.48, 0.76). A similar pattern was observed in blacks with diabetes compared with whites with diabetes. Type 2 diabetes was associated with more years of life lost among whites than among South Asians or blacks, with older South Asians experiencing longer life expectancy compared with South Asians without diabetes. The findings support optimized cardiovascular disease risk factor management, especially in whites with type 2 diabetes. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

  10. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify...... with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other...... locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted...

  11. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-16

    Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age

  12. Describing the population health burden of depression: health-adjusted life expectancy by depression status in Canada

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    C. Steensma

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Few studies have evaluated the impact of depression in terms of losses to both premature mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQOL on the overall population. Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE is a summary measure of population health that combines both morbidity and mortality into a single summary statistic that describes the current health status of a population. Methods: We estimated HALE for the Canadian adult population according to depression status. National Population Health Survey (NPHS participants 20 years and older (n = 12 373 were followed for mortality outcomes from 1994 to 2009, based on depression status. Depression was defined as having likely experienced a major depressive episode in the previous year as measured by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Short Form. Life expectancy was estimated by building period abridged life tables by sex and depression status using the relative risks of mortality from the NPHS and mortality data from the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System (2007-2009. The Canadian Community Health Survey (2009/10 provided estimates of depression prevalence and Health Utilities Index as a measure of HRQOL. Using the combined mortality, depression prevalence and HRQOL estimates, HALE was estimated for the adult population according to depression status and by sex. Results: For the population of women with a recent major depressive episode, HALE at 20 years of age was 42.0 years (95% CI: 40.2-43.8 compared to 57.0 years (95% CI: 56.8-57.2 for women without a recent major depressive episode. For the population of Canadian men, HALE at 20 was 39.0 years (95% CI: 36.5-41.5 for those with a recent major depressive episode compared to 53.8 years (95% CI: 53.6-54.0 for those without. For the 15.0-year difference in HALE between women with and without depression, 12.3 years can be attributed to the HRQOL gap and the remaining 2.7 years to the mortality gap. The 14.8 fewer

  13. Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-04-01

    We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

  14. Mortality tempo versus removal of causes of mortality: Opposite views leading to different estimations of life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervé Le Bras

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose an alternative way of dealing with mortality tempo. Bongaarts and Feeney have developed a model that assumes a fixed delay postponing each death. Our model, however, assumes that changes take place with the removal of a given cause of mortality. Cross-sectional risks of mortality by age and expectations of life therefore are not biased, contrary to the model of the two authors. Treating the two approaches as two particular cases of a more general process, we demonstrate that these two particular cases are the only ones that have general properties: The only model enjoying a decomposable expression is the removal model and the only model enjoying the proportionality property is the fixed delay model.

  15. Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

    2015-02-24

    Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, pUSA 8.6%, pUSA 11.2%, pUSA 77%, pUSA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzadfar Farshad

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, total cholesterol (TC, and high body mass index (BMI on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000 deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000 deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9 and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9 in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran

  17. Leisure-time running reduces all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duck-Chul; Pate, Russell R; Lavie, Carl J; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

    2014-08-05

    Although running is a popular leisure-time physical activity, little is known about the long-term effects of running on mortality. The dose-response relations between running, as well as the change in running behaviors over time, and mortality remain uncertain. We examined the associations of running with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks in 55,137 adults, 18 to 100 years of age (mean age 44 years). Running was assessed on a medical history questionnaire by leisure-time activity. During a mean follow-up of 15 years, 3,413 all-cause and 1,217 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Approximately 24% of adults participated in running in this population. Compared with nonrunners, runners had 30% and 45% lower adjusted risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, with a 3-year life expectancy benefit. In dose-response analyses, the mortality benefits in runners were similar across quintiles of running time, distance, frequency, amount, and speed, compared with nonrunners. Weekly running even benefits, with 29% and 50% lower risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, compared with never-runners. Running, even 5 to 10 min/day and at slow speeds benefits. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Reduction of operative mortality after implementation of Surgical Outcomes Monitoring and Improvement Programme by Hong Kong Hospital Authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, W C; Wong, K; Cheung, Y S; Lai, P Bs

    2018-04-01

    Since 2008, the Hong Kong Hospital Authority has implemented a Surgical Outcomes Monitoring and Improvement Programme (SOMIP) at 17 public hospitals with surgical departments. This study aimed to assess the change in operative mortality rate after implementation of SOMIP. The SOMIP included all Hospital Authority patients undergoing major/ultra-major procedures in general surgery, urology, plastic surgery, and paediatric surgery. Patients undergoing liver or renal transplantation or who had multiple trauma or massive bowel ischaemia were excluded. In SOMIP, data retrieval from the Hospital Authority patient database was performed by six full-time nurse reviewers following a set of precise data definitions. A total of 230 variables were collected for each patient, on demographics, preoperative and operative variables, laboratory test results, and postoperative complications up to 30 days after surgery. In this study, we used SOMIP cumulative 5-year data to generate risk-adjusted 30-day mortality models by hierarchical logistic regression for both emergency and elective operations. The models expressed overall performance as an annual observed-to-expected mortality ratio. From 2009/2010 to 2015/2016, the overall crude mortality rate decreased from 10.8% to 5.6% for emergency procedures and from 0.9% to 0.4% for elective procedures. From 2011/2012 to 2015/2016, the risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality ratios showed a significant downward trend for both emergency and elective operations: from 1.126 to 0.796 and from 1.150 to 0.859, respectively (Mann- Kendall statistic = -0.8; PAuthority's overall crude mortality rates and risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality ratios for emergency and elective operations significantly declined after SOMIP was implemented.

  19. Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

    2013-09-01

    BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

  20. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  1. Impact of particulate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Douglas; Stieb, Dave; Burnett, Richard T; DeCivita, Paul; Krewski, Daniel; Chen, Yue; Thun, Michael J

    Air pollution and premature death are important public health concerns. Analyses have repeatedly demonstrated that airborne particles are associated with increased mortality and estimates have been used to forecast the impact on life expectancy. In this analysis, we draw upon data from the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort and literature on utility-based measures of quality of life in relation to health status to more fully quantify the effects of air pollution on mortality in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy. The analysis was conducted within a decision analytic model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Outcomes were estimated based on projections of the Canadian population. A one-unit reduction in sulfate air pollution would yield a mean annual increase in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) of 20,960, with gains being greater for individuals with lower educational status and for males compared to females. This suggests that the impact of reductions in sulfate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy is substantial. Interpretation of the results is unclear. However, the potential gains in QALYs from reduced air pollutants can be contrasted to the costs of policies to bring about such reductions. Based on a tentative threshold for the value of health benefits, analysis suggests that an investment in Canada of over 1 billion dollars per annum would be an efficient use of resources if it could be demonstrated that this would reduce sulfate concentrations in ambient air by 1 microg/m(3). Further analysis can assess the efficiency of targeting such initiatives to communities that are most likely to benefit.

  2. The Social Distribution of Health: Estimating Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love-Koh, James; Asaria, Miqdad; Cookson, Richard; Griffin, Susan

    2015-07-01

    To model the social distribution of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) in England by combining survey data on health-related quality of life with administrative data on mortality. Health Survey for England data sets for 2010, 2011, and 2012 were pooled (n = 35,062) and used to model health-related quality of life as a function of sex, age, and socioeconomic status (SES). Office for National Statistics mortality rates were used to construct life tables for age-sex-SES groups. These quality-of-life and length-of-life estimates were then combined to predict QALE as a function of these characteristics. Missing data were imputed, and Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate standard errors. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore alternative regression models and measures of SES. Socioeconomic inequality in QALE at birth was estimated at 11.87 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with a sex difference of 1 QALY. When the socioeconomic-sex subgroups are ranked by QALE, a differential of 10.97 QALYs is found between the most and least healthy quintile groups. This differential can be broken down into a life expectancy difference of 7.28 years and a quality-of-life adjustment of 3.69 years. The methods proposed in this article refine simple binary quality-adjustment measures such as the widely used disability-free life expectancy, providing a more accurate picture of overall health inequality in society than has hitherto been available. The predictions also lend themselves well to the task of evaluating the health inequality impact of interventions in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

    2006-08-01

    We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

  4. Planned home compared with planned hospital births: mode of delivery and Perinatal mortality rates, an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Kooy, Jacoba; Birnie, Erwin; Denktas, Semiha; Steegers, Eric A P; Bonsel, Gouke J

    2017-06-08

    To compare the mode of delivery between planned home versus planned hospital births and to determine if differences in intervention rates could be interpreted as over- or undertreatment. Intervention and perinatal mortality rates were obtained for 679,952 low-risk women from the Dutch Perinatal Registry (2000-2007). Intervention was defined as operative vaginal delivery and/or caesarean section. Perinatal mortality was defined as the intrapartum and early neonatal mortality rate up to 7 days postpartum. Besides adjustment for maternal and care factors, we included for additional casemix adjustment: presence of congenital abnormality, small for gestational age, preterm birth, or low Apgar score. The techniques used were nested multiple stepwise logistic regression, and stratified analysis for separate risk groups. An intention-to-treat like analysis was performed. The intervention rate was lower in planned home compared to planned hospital births (10.9% 95% CI 10.8-11.0 vs. 13.8% 95% CI 13.6-13.9). Intended place of birth had significant impact on the likelihood to intervene after adjustment (planned homebirth (OR 0.77 95% CI. 0.75-0.78)). The mortality rate was lower in planned home births (0.15% vs. 0.18%). After adjustment, the interaction term home- intervention was significant (OR1.51 95% CI 1.25-1.84). In risk groups, a higher perinatal mortality rate was observed in planned home births. The potential presence of over- or under treatment as expressed by adjusted perinatal mortality differs per risk group. In planned home births especially multiparous women showed universally lower intervention rates. However, the benefit of substantially fewer interventions in the planned home group seems to be counterbalanced by substantially increased mortality if intervention occurs.

  5. Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

    2006-12-01

    To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, prisk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

  6. Decrease of old age population mortality in Yugoslavia: Chance to increase anticipated life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radivojević Biljana M.

    2002-01-01

    average amounted to about 3 years for the male and about 5 years for the female population. In Japan in 1998 it amounted to 17.1 years, namely 22.0 years respectively. However, it is interesting that all up to the seventies these indexes were almost at the same level in our country and Japan, and only after this period the differences appeared as a consequence of putting an end to the positive tendencies in differential mortality by age, even in the increase rate with the older population in Yugoslavia. On the other hand, the anticipated life expectancy for the age of 65 (for both sexes was increased by 40%, in Japan from 1970 to 1998, in contrast to an increase of 9% for 0 age. In the same period in Yugoslavia, although there was a considerably lower increase percentage, it was still more significant with newborns (above 6% for both sexes, than with population older than 65 (under 5%. Hence, such an inclination and intensity of changes resulted, in relation to Japan, in a relatively greater lagging with people aged 65 than with 0 age. The anticipated life expectancy for people aged 85 and over, in the whole observed period, increased only by 8% with the male population and 10% with the female population of Yugoslavia. Its present level is the result of small changes in the mortality rates of the oldest population. In average, people aged 85 + will live another 4.2, namely 4.4 years respectively under the assumed mortality from 1997/98. At the same time the Japanese men are expected to live another 5.4, and Japanese women another 7.2 years. Therefore, middle aged and old population in Yugoslavia has had unfavorable mortality tendencies in relation to the young population, more distinct beginning from the seventies, and especially with men. The nineties were again unfavorable for the old population, this time especially for the female population, where a slight decrease of this rate was marked. Having in mind the changes and achieved level of anticipated life expectancy in

  7. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

  8. Lung cancer mortality in nickel/chromium platers, 1946-95.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorahan, T; Burges, D C; Hamilton, L; Harrington, J M

    1998-04-01

    To investigate mortality from lung cancer in nickel/chromium platers. The mortality experience of a cohort of 1762 chrome workers (812 men, 950 women) from a large electroplating and light engineering plant in the Midlands, United Kingdom, was investigated for the period 1946-95. All subjects were first employed in chrome work at the plant during the period 1946-75, and had at least six months employment in jobs associated with exposure to chromic acid mist (hexavalent chromium). Detailed job histories were abstracted from original company personnel records and individual cumulative durations of employment in three types of chrome work were derived as time dependent variables (chrome bath work, other chrome work, any chrome work). Two analytical approaches were used--indirect standardisation and Poisson regression. Based on mortalities for the general population of England and Wales, male workers with some period of chrome bath work had higher lung cancer mortalities (observed deaths 40, expected deaths 25.41, standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 157, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 113 to 214, p chrome workers (observed 9, expected 13.70, SMR 66, 95% CI 30 to 125). Similar findings were shown for female workers (chrome bath workers: observed 15, expected 8.57, SMR 175, 95% CI 98 to 289, p = 0.06; other chrome workers: observed 1, expected 4.37, SMR 23, 95% CI 1 to 127). Poisson regression was used to investigate risks of lung cancer relative to four categories of cumulative duration of chrome bath work and four categories of cumulative duration of other chrome work (none, or = 5 y). After adjusting for sex, age, calendar period, year of starting chrome work, period from first chrome work, and employment status (still employed v left employment), there was a significant positive trend (p chrome bath work and risks of mortality for lung cancer. Relative to a risk of unity for those chrome workers without any period of chrome bath work, risks were 2.83 (95% CI 1.47 to

  9. Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

    2016-09-06

    Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

  10. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  11. Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Kaptoge, Stephen; Wormser, David

    2015-01-01

    , stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate......IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using...... individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499...

  12. Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Quantifying and Adjusting for Disease Misclassification Due to Loss to Follow-Up in Historical Cohort Mortality Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura L. F. Scott

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this analysis was to quantify and adjust for disease misclassification from loss to follow-up in a historical cohort mortality study of workers where exposure was categorized as a multi-level variable. Disease classification parameters were defined using 2008 mortality data for the New Zealand population and the proportions of known deaths observed for the cohort. The probability distributions for each classification parameter were constructed to account for potential differences in mortality due to exposure status, gender, and ethnicity. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis (bias analysis, which uses Monte Carlo techniques, was then used to sample each parameter distribution 50,000 times, calculating adjusted odds ratios (ORDM-LTF that compared the mortality of workers with the highest cumulative exposure to those that were considered never-exposed. The geometric mean ORDM-LTF ranged between 1.65 (certainty interval (CI: 0.50–3.88 and 3.33 (CI: 1.21–10.48, and the geometric mean of the disease-misclassification error factor (eDM-LTF, which is the ratio of the observed odds ratio to the adjusted odds ratio, had a range of 0.91 (CI: 0.29–2.52 to 1.85 (CI: 0.78–6.07. Only when workers in the highest exposure category were more likely than those never-exposed to be misclassified as non-cases did the ORDM-LTF frequency distributions shift further away from the null. The application of uncertainty analysis to historical cohort mortality studies with multi-level exposures can provide valuable insight into the magnitude and direction of study error resulting from losses to follow-up.

  14. Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Solinge, Hanna; Henkens, Kène

    2018-06-01

    This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates between bottom-up (objective data of any type) and top-down factors (psychological variables). The study used data from the first wave of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Work and Retirement Panel. This is a prospective cohort study among Dutch older workers. The analytical sample included 2278 individuals, assessed at age 50-64 in 2001, with vital statistics tracked through 2011. We used a linear regression model to estimate the impact of bottom-up and top-down factors on SLE. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the impact of SLE on the timing of mortality, crude and adjusted for actuarial correlates of general life expectancy, family history, health and trait-like dispositions. Results reveal that psychological variables play a role in the formation of SLE. Further, the results indicate that SLE predicts actual mortality, crude and adjusted for socio-demographic, biomedical and psychological confounders. Education has an additional effect on mortality. Those with higher educational attainment were less likely to die within the follow-up period. This SES gradient in mortality was not captured in SLE. The findings indicate that SLE is an independent predictor of mortality in a pre-retirement cohort in the Netherlands. SLE does not fully capture educational differences in mortality. Particularly, higher-educated individuals underestimate their life expectancy.

  15. Increased mortality risk in women with depression and diabetes mellitus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, An; Lucas, Michel; Sun, Qi; van Dam, Rob M.; Franco, Oscar H.; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Rexrode, Kathryn M.; Ascherio, Alberto; Hu, Frank B.

    2011-01-01

    Context Both depression and diabetes have been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality. However, data evaluating the joint effects of these two conditions on mortality are sparse. Objectives To evaluate the individual and joint effects of depression and diabetes on all-cause and CVD mortality in a prospective cohort study. Design, Settings and Participants A total of 78282 female participants in the Nurses' Health Study aged 54-79 years at baseline in 2000 were followed until 2006. Depression was defined as having self-reported diagnosed depression, treatment with antidepressant medications, or a score indicating severe depressive symptomatology, i.e., a five-item Mental Health Index score ≤52. Self-reported type 2 diabetes was confirmed using a supplementary questionnaire. Main outcome measures All-cause and CVD-specific mortality. Results During 6 years of follow-up (433066 person-years), 4654 deaths were documented, including 979 deaths from CVD. Compared to participants without either condition, the age-adjusted relative risks (95% confidence interval, CI) for all-cause mortality were 1.76 (1.64-1.89) for women with depression only, 1.71 (1.54-1.89) for individuals with diabetes only, and 3.11 (2.70-3.58) for those with both conditions. The corresponding age-adjusted relative risks of CVD mortality were 1.81 (1.54-2.13), 2.67 (2.20-3.23), and 5.38 (4.19-6.91), respectively. These associations were attenuated after multivariate adjustment for other demographic variables, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, and major comorbidities (including hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, heart diseases, stroke and cancer) but remained significant, with the highest relative risks for all-cause and CVD mortality found in those with both conditions (2.07 [95% CI, 1.79-2.40] and 2.72 [95% CI, 2.09-3.54], respectively). Furthermore, the combination of depression with a long duration of diabetes

  16. The association of air pollution and greenness with mortality and life expectancy in Spain: A small-area study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Keijzer, Carmen; Agis, David; Ambrós, Albert; Arévalo, Gustavo; Baldasano, Jose M; Bande, Stefano; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Benach, Joan; Cirach, Marta; Dadvand, Payam; Ghigo, Stefania; Martinez-Solanas, Èrica; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Cadum, Ennio; Basagaña, Xavier

    2017-02-01

    Air pollution exposure has been associated with an increase in mortality rates, but few studies have focused on life expectancy, and most studies had restricted spatial coverage. A limited body of evidence is also suggestive for a beneficial association between residential exposure to greenness and mortality, but the evidence for such an association with life expectancy is still very scarce. To investigate the association of exposure to air pollution and greenness with mortality and life expectancy in Spain. Mortality data from 2148 small areas (average population of 20,750 inhabitants, and median population of 7672 inhabitants) covering Spain for years 2009-2013 were obtained. Average annual levels of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO 2 and O 3 were derived from an air quality forecasting system at 4×4km resolution. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to assess greenness in each small area. Air pollution and greenness were linked to standardized mortality rates (SMRs) using Poisson regression and to life expectancy using linear regression. The models were adjusted for socioeconomic status and lung cancer mortality rates (as a proxy for smoking), and accounted for spatial autocorrelation. The increase of 5μg/m 3 in PM 10 , NO 2 and O 3 or of 2μg/m 3 in PM 2.5 concentration resulted in a loss of life in years of 0.90 (95% credibility interval CI: 0.83, 0.98), 0.13 (95% CI: 0.09, 0.17), 0.20years (95% CI: 0.16, 0.24) and 0.64 (0.59, 0.70), respectively. Similar associations were found in the SMR analysis, with stronger associations for PM 2.5 and PM 10 , which were associated with an increased mortality risk of 3.7% (95% CI: 3.5%, 4.0%) and 5.7% (95% CI: 5.4%, 6.1%). For greenness, a protective effect on mortality and longer life expectancy was only found in areas with lower socioeconomic status. Air pollution concentrations were associated to important reductions in life expectancy. The reduction of air pollution should be a priority for public health

  17. The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevenson Christopher E

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men and 35.6% (women of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

  18. [Estimation of the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases mortality, life expectancy and the labor force lost in China in 2030].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X Y; Li, Y C; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Liu, S W; Qi, J L; Zhou, M G

    2017-12-06

    Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary

  19. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  20. Increased Vascular Disease Mortality Risk in Prediabetic Korean Adults Is Mainly Attributable to Ischemic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Nam Hoon; Kwon, Tae Yeon; Yu, Sungwook; Kim, Nan Hee; Choi, Kyung Mook; Baik, Sei Hyun; Park, Yousung; Kim, Sin Gon

    2017-04-01

    Prediabetes is a known risk factor for vascular diseases; however, its differential contribution to mortality risk from various vascular disease subtypes is not known. The subjects of the National Health Insurance Service in Korea (2002-2013) nationwide cohort were stratified into normal glucose tolerance (fasting glucose mortality risk for vascular disease and its subtypes-ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. When adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index, IFG stage 2, but not stage 1, was associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.34) and vascular disease mortality (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08-1.49) compared with normal glucose tolerance. Among the vascular disease subtypes, mortality from ischemic stroke was significantly higher (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.18-2.18) in subjects with IFG stage 2 but not from ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke. The ischemic stroke mortality associated with IFG stage 2 remained significantly high when adjusted other modifiable vascular disease risk factors (HR, 1.51; 95% CI: 1.10-2.09) and medical treatments (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.57). Higher IFG degree (fasting glucose, 110-125 mg/dL) was associated with increased all-cause and vascular disease mortality. The increased vascular disease mortality in IFG stage 2 was attributable to ischemic stroke, but not ischemic heart disease or hemorrhagic stroke in Korean adults. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. How to determine life expectancy change of air pollution mortality: a time series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau PYK

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Information on life expectancy (LE change is of great concern for policy makers, as evidenced by discussions of the "harvesting" (or "mortality displacement" issue, i.e. how large an LE loss corresponds to the mortality results of time series (TS studies. Whereas loss of LE attributable to chronic air pollution exposure can be determined from cohort studies, using life table methods, conventional TS studies have identified only deaths due to acute exposure, during the immediate past (typically the preceding one to five days, and they provide no information about the LE loss per death. Methods We show how to obtain information on population-average LE loss by extending the observation window (largest "lag" of TS to include a sufficient number of "impact coefficients" for past exposures ("lags". We test several methods for determining these coefficients. Once all of the coefficients have been determined, the LE change is calculated as time integral of the relative risk change after a permanent step change in exposure. Results The method is illustrated with results for daily data of non-accidental mortality from Hong Kong for 1985 - 2005, regressed against PM10 and SO2 with observation windows up to 5 years. The majority of the coefficients is statistically significant. The magnitude of the SO2 coefficients is comparable to those for PM10. But a window of 5 years is not sufficient and the results for LE change are only a lower bound; it is consistent with what is implied by other studies of long term impacts. Conclusions A TS analysis can determine the LE loss, but if the observation window is shorter than the relevant exposures one obtains only a lower bound.

  2. Ethnic Inequalities in Mortality: The Case of Arab-Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M.; Tracy, Melissa; Scarborough, Peter; Galea, Sandro

    2011-01-01

    Background Although nearly 112 million residents of the United States belong to a non-white ethnic group, the literature about differences in health indicators across ethnic groups is limited almost exclusively to Hispanics. Features of the social experience of many ethnic groups including immigration, discrimination, and acculturation may plausibly influence mortality risk. We explored life expectancy and age-adjusted mortality risk of Arab-Americans (AAs), relative to non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan, the state with the largest per capita population of AAs in the US. Methodology/Principal Findings Data were collected about all deaths to AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan between 1990 and 2007, and year 2000 census data were collected for population denominators. We calculated life expectancy, age-adjusted all-cause, cause-specific, and age-specific mortality rates stratified by ethnicity and gender among AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites. Among AAs, life expectancies among men and women were 2.0 and 1.4 years lower than among non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men and women, respectively. AA men had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men due to infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and homicide. AA women had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White women due to chronic diseases. Conclusions/Significance Despite better education and higher income, AAs have higher age-adjusted mortality risk than non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites, particularly due to chronic diseases. Features specific to AA culture may explain some of these findings. PMID:22216204

  3. Severity-Adjusted Mortality in Trauma Patients Transported by Police

    Science.gov (United States)

    Band, Roger A.; Salhi, Rama A.; Holena, Daniel N.; Powell, Elizabeth; Branas, Charles C.; Carr, Brendan G.

    2018-01-01

    Study objective Two decades ago, Philadelphia began allowing police transport of patients with penetrating trauma. We conduct a large, multiyear, citywide analysis of this policy. We examine the association between mode of out-of-hospital transport (police department versus emergency medical services [EMS]) and mortality among patients with penetrating trauma in Philadelphia. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of trauma registry data. Patients who sustained any proximal penetrating trauma and presented to any Level I or II trauma center in Philadelphia between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were included. Analyses were conducted with logistic regression models and were adjusted for injury severity with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score and for case mix with a modified Charlson index. Results Four thousand one hundred twenty-two subjects were identified. Overall mortality was 27.4%. In unadjusted analyses, patients transported by police were more likely to die than patients transported by ambulance (29.8% versus 26.5%; OR 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 1.39). In adjusted models, no significant difference was observed in overall mortality between the police department and EMS groups (odds ratio [OR] 0.78; 95% CI 0.61 to 1.01). In subgroup analysis, patients with severe injury (Injury Severity Score >15) (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.90), patients with gunshot wounds (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.94), and patients with stab wounds (OR 0.19; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45) were more likely to survive if transported by police. Conclusion We found no significant overall difference in adjusted mortality between patients transported by the police department compared with EMS but found increased adjusted survival among 3 key subgroups of patients transported by police. This practice may augment traditional care. PMID:24387925

  4. Association of flavonoid-rich foods and flavonoids with risk of all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Kerry L; Jensen, Majken K; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Eliassen, A Heather; Cassidy, Aedín; Rimm, Eric B

    2017-05-01

    Flavonoids are bioactive compounds found in foods such as tea, red wine, fruits and vegetables. Higher intakes of specific flavonoids, and flavonoid-rich foods, have been linked to reduced mortality from specific vascular diseases and cancers. However, the importance of flavonoid-rich foods, and flavonoids, in preventing all-cause mortality remains uncertain. As such, we examined the association of intake of flavonoid-rich foods and flavonoids with subsequent mortality among 93 145 young and middle-aged women in the Nurses' Health Study II. During 1 838 946 person-years of follow-up, 1808 participants died. When compared with non-consumers, frequent consumers of red wine, tea, peppers, blueberries and strawberries were at reduced risk of all-cause mortality (Pflavonoid intake were at reduced risk of all-cause mortality in the age-adjusted model; 0·81 (95 % CI 0·71, 0·93). However, this association was attenuated following multivariable adjustment; 0·92 (95 % CI 0·80, 1·06). Similar results were observed for consumption of flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and anthocyanins. Flavonols, flavanones and flavones were not associated with all-cause mortality in any model. Despite null associations at the compound level and select foods, higher consumption of red wine, tea, peppers, blueberries and strawberries, was associated with reduced risk of total and cause-specific mortality. These findings support the rationale for making food-based dietary recommendations.

  5. Persistent insomnia is associated with mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathy, Sairam; Vasquez, Monica M; Halonen, Marilyn; Bootzin, Richard; Quan, Stuart F; Martinez, Fernando D; Guerra, Stefano

    2015-03-01

    Insomnia has been associated with mortality risk, but whether this association is different in subjects with persistent vs intermittent insomnia is unclear. Additionally, the role of systemic inflammation in such an association is unknown. We used data from a community-based cohort to determine whether persistent or intermittent insomnia, defined based on persistence of symptoms over a 6-year period, was associated with death during the following 20 years of follow-up. We also determined whether changes in serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels measured over 2 decades between study initiation and insomnia determination were different for the persistent, intermittent, and never insomnia groups. The results were adjusted for confounders such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol, and sedatives. Of the 1409 adult participants, 249 (18%) had intermittent and 128 (9%) had persistent insomnia. During a 20-year follow-up period, 318 participants died (118 due to cardiopulmonary disease). In adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models, participants with persistent insomnia (adjusted hazards ratio [HR] 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-2.45) but not intermittent insomnia (HR 1.22; 95% CI, 0.86-1.74) were more likely to die than participants without insomnia. Serum CRP levels were higher and increased at a steeper rate in subjects with persistent insomnia as compared with intermittent (P = .04) or never (P = .004) insomnia. Although CRP levels were themselves associated with increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.01-1.82; P = .04), adjustment for CRP levels did not notably change the association between persistent insomnia and mortality. In a population-based cohort, persistent, and not intermittent, insomnia was associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality and was associated with a steeper increase in inflammation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congdon Peter

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Life expectancy in China has been improving markedly but health gains have been uneven and there is inequality in survival chances between regions and in rural as against urban areas. This paper applies a statistical modelling approach to mortality data collected in conjunction with the 2000 Census to formally assess spatial mortality contrasts in China. The modelling approach provides interpretable summary parameters (e.g. the relative mortality risk in rural as against urban areas and is more parsimonious in terms of parameters than the conventional life table model. Results Predictive fit is assessed both globally and at the level of individual five year age groups. A proportional model (age and area effects independent has a worse fit than one allowing age-area interactions following a bilinear form. The best fit is obtained by allowing for child and oldest age mortality rates to vary spatially. Conclusion There is evidence that age (21 age groups and area (31 Chinese administrative divisions are not proportional (i.e. independent mortality risk factors. In fact, spatial contrasts are greatest at young ages. There is a pronounced rural survival disadvantage, and large differences in life expectancy between provinces.

  7. Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: In most developed countries, mortality reductions in the first half of the 20th century were highly associated with changes in lifespan disparities. In the second half of the 20th century, changes in mortality are best described by a shift in the mortality schedule, with lifespan variability remaining nearly constant. These successive mortality dynamics are known as compression and shifting mortality, respectively. Objective: To understand the effect of compression and shifting dynamics on mortality changes, we quantify the gains in life expectancy due to changes in lifespan variability and changes in the mortality schedule, respectively. Methods: We introduce a decomposition method using newly developed parametric expressions of the force of mortality that include the modal age at death as one of their parameters. Our approach allows us to differentiate between the two underlying processes in mortality and their dynamics. Results: An application of our methodology to the mortality of Swedish females shows that, since the mid-1960s, shifts in the mortality schedule were responsible for more than 70Š of the increase in life expectancy. Conclusions: The decomposition method allows differentiation between both underlying mortality processes and their respective impact on life expectancy, and also determines when and how one process has replaced the other.

  8. Application of Variable Life Adjusted Displays (VLAD on Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrianopoulos Nick

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The need to improve patient safety has been identified as a major priority for health reform in developed countries, including Australia. We investigated the implementation and appropriateness of Variable Life Adjusted Displays as a quality control procedure to monitor “in-control” versus “out-of-control” processes in Victorian public hospitals. Methods Victorian Admitted Episode Data from Department of Human Services, Victoria for 2004–7 were used. The VLAD is a plot of a cumulative sum of the difference in expected outcome (range 0–1 and observed outcome (0 or 1 for sequential separations. Three outcomes were assessed: in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction, stroke and heart failure. Logistic regression was used to obtain a realistic measure of expected mortality over the period 2004–5, adjusting for covariates and comorbidities, to estimate expected mortality risk for the separations between 2005–7. VLAD were plotted for the years 2005–7, by the 11 hospitals with the highest frequency of separations. Signalling limits for 30%, 50% and 75% risk decrease and risk increase were determined and plotted for each VLAD utilizing risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques. This is a likelihood-ratio test statistic for signalling. If the VLAD signalled by intersecting with a limit, the limit was reset. Results The three logit models displayed reasonable fit to the observed data. There were n = 2999 separations in the AMI model, n = 3598 in the HF model and n = 1922 in the stroke model. The number of separations plotted by VLAD ranged from n = 126 to n = 648. No signals were observed in 64%, 55% and 18% of VLAD for AMI, HF and stroke respectively. For AMI and HF 9% of hospitals signalled at least once for each of 30%, 50% and 75% risk increase, whereas this was 45% for stroke. Hospitals signalling at least once for risk decrease ranged from 18% to 36% across the levels of risk and

  9. Dose-response relationship analysis for cancer and circulatory system disease mortality risks among uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drubay, Damien

    2015-01-01

    probability during the follow-up (e.g. SHRWismut-radon /100 WLM=1.012 [0.983; 1.042]). CSD mortality risk analyses in the French cohort showed a significant increase of the risks of mortality from CSD (n=442, CSHR/100 WLM=1.11 [1.01; 1.22]) and from Cerebrovascular Disease (MCeV, n=105, CSHR/100 WLM=1.25 [1.09; 1.43]) with radon exposure. A case-control study nested in the French cohort was set up to collect the information related to CSD risk factors (overweight, hypertension, diabetes...) from the medical records of 313 miners (76 deaths from CSD (including 26 from Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) and 16 from MCeV) and 237 controls). For the three radiological exposures, the exposure-risk relation was analyzed in a pseudo-cohort (n=1,644 pseudo-individuals, obtained from the weighting of the observations by their inverse selection probability) with the Cox model, adjusted for the CSD risk factors. The association between the radiological exposure and the risk of mortality from CSD, IHD or MCeV was not significant (e.g. CSHRCSD-radon/100 WLM=1.43 [0.71; 2.87]). The adjustment for CSD risk factors did not substantially change the exposure-risk relation. The lack of a significant dose-response relation suggests that the excess of kidney cancer mortality among the French uranium miners may be induced by other risk factors, unavailable for this study. The small change of the coefficients observed after adjustment for CSD risk factors in the nested case-control study supports the assumption of the existence of the MCeV mortality risk increase associated with radon exposure in the French cohort of uranium miners. Future analyses based on further follow-up updates should allow to confirm or not these results. (author)

  10. Inadequate exercise as a risk factor for sepsis mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul T

    2013-01-01

    Test whether inadequate exercise is related to sepsis mortality. Mortality surveillance of an epidemiological cohort of 155,484 National Walkers' and Runners' Health Study participants residing in the United States. Deaths were monitored for an average of 11.6-years using the National Death index through December 31, 2008. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to compare sepsis mortality (ICD-10 A40-41) to inadequate exercise (<1.07 METh/d run or walked) as measured on their baseline questionnaires. Deaths occurring within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Sepsis was the underlying cause in 54 deaths (sepsis(underlying)) and a contributing cause in 184 deaths (sepsis(contributing)), or 238 total sepsis-related deaths (sepsis(total)). Inadequate exercise was associated with 2.24-fold increased risk for sepsis(underlying) (95%CI: 1.21 to 4.07-fold, P = 0.01), 2.11-fold increased risk for sepsis(contributing) (95%CI: 1.51- to 2.92-fold, P<10(-4)), and 2.13-fold increased risk for sepsis(total) (95%CI: 1.59- to 2.84-fold, P<10(-6)) when adjusted for age, sex, race, and cohort. The risk increase did not differ significantly between runners and walkers, by sex, or by age. Sepsis(total) risk was greater in diabetics (P = 10(-5)), cancer survivors (P = 0.0001), and heart attack survivors (P = 0.003) and increased with waist circumference (P = 0.0004). The sepsis(total) risk associated with inadequate exercise persisted when further adjusted for diabetes, prior cancer, prior heart attack and waist circumference, and when excluding deaths with cancer, or cardiovascular, respiratory, or genitourinary disease as the underlying cause. Inadequate exercise also increased sepsis(total) risk in 2163 baseline diabetics (4.78-fold, 95%CI: 2.1- to 13.8-fold, P = 0.0001) when adjusted, which was significantly greater (P = 0.03) than the adjusted risk increase in non-diabetics (1.80-fold, 95%CI: 1.30- to 2.46-fold, P = 0

  11. Risk adjustment of health-care performance measures in a multinational register-based study: A pragmatic approach to a complicated topic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tron Anders Moger

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health-care performance comparisons across countries are gaining popularity. In such comparisons, the risk adjustment methodology plays a key role for meaningful comparisons. However, comparisons may be complicated by the fact that not all participating countries are allowed to share their data across borders, meaning that only simple methods are easily used for the risk adjustment. In this study, we develop a pragmatic approach using patient-level register data from Finland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Methods: Data on acute myocardial infarction patients were gathered from health-care registers in several countries. In addition to unadjusted estimates, we studied the effects of adjusting for age, gender, and a number of comorbidities. The stability of estimates for 90-day mortality and length of stay of the first hospital episode following diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction is studied graphically, using different choices of reference data. Logistic regression models are used for mortality, and negative binomial models are used for length of stay. Results: Results from the sensitivity analysis show that the various models of risk adjustment give similar results for the countries, with some exceptions for Hungary and Italy. Based on the results, in Finland and Hungary, the 90-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction is higher than in Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Conclusion: Health-care registers give encouraging possibilities to performance measurement and enable the comparison of entire patient populations between countries. Risk adjustment methodology is affected by the availability of data, and thus, the building of risk adjustment methodology must be transparent, especially when doing multinational comparative research. In that case, even basic methods of risk adjustment may still be valuable.

  12. Regional patterns of disability-free life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy: global Burden of Disease Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, C J; Lopez, A D

    1997-05-10

    proportion of expected life span at birth lived with disability adjusted for severity, varies from about 8% in established market economies to 15% in sub-Saharan Africa, with little difference between men and women. In high-income regions, nearly 90% of expected disability is due to non-communicable diseases and most of the remainder to injuries. In poorer regions, almost half of expected disability is due to communicable diseases and injuries. The higher proportion of lifespan spent disabled in high-mortality populations is consistent with the compression of morbidity hypothesis. The threshold definition of disability used substantially affects the results of DFLE, DALE, which incorporates severity weights for disabilities, is a useful summary measure of the burden of disability and mortality.

  13. Homelessness as an independent risk factor for mortality: results from a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, David S

    2009-06-01

    Homelessness is associated with increased risks of mortality but it has not previously been possible to distinguish whether this is typical of other socio-economically deprived populations, the result of a higher prevalence of morbidity or an independent risk of homelessness itself. The aim of this study was to describe mortality among a cohort of homeless adults and adjust for the effects of morbidity and socio-economic deprivation. Retrospective 5-year study of two fixed cohorts, homeless adults and an age- and sex-matched random sample of the local non-homeless population in Greater Glasgow National Health Service Board area for comparison. Over 5 years of observation, 1.7% (209/12 451) of the general population and 7.2% (457/6323) of the homeless cohort died. The hazard ratio of all-cause mortality in homeless compared with non-homeless cohorts was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.8-5.2). After adjustment for age, sex and previous hospitalization, homelessness was associated with an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9). Homelessness had differential effects on cause-specific mortality. Among patients who had been hospitalized for drug-related conditions, the homeless cohort experienced a 7-fold increase in risk of death from drugs compared with the general population. Homelessness is an independent risk factor for deaths from specific causes. Preventive programmes might be most effectively targeted at the homeless with these conditions.

  14. [Mortality and life expectancy that attributable to high blood pressure in Chinese people in 2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X Y; Liu, S W; Wang, L J; Zhang, M; Yin, P; Liu, Y N; Zhao, Z P; Wang, L M

    2017-08-10

    Objective: To estimate the deaths (mortality) and life expectancy that attributable to high blood pressure in people from different regions and gender, in China in 2013. Methods: Data was from the 'China Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance 2013' and the 'China National Mortality Surveillance 2013'. According to the comparative risk assessment theory, population attributable fraction ( PAF ) of high blood pressure by gender, urban-rural, east-central-west regions was calculated before the estimations on deaths (mortality) and life expectancy attributable to high blood pressure was made. Results: In 2013, among the Chinese people aged 25 years old and above, the mean SBP was (129.48±20.27) mmHg. High blood pressure[SBP>(115±6) mmHg]caused 20.879 million deaths and accounted for 22.78% of the total deaths. SBP, deaths, mortality rate and standardized mortality rate that attributable to high blood pressure all appeared higher in men [(131.15±18.73) mmHg, 11.517 million, 165.56/100 000 and 106.97/100 000, respectively]than in women[(127.79±21.60) mmHg, 9.362 million, 141.99/100 000 and 68.93/100 000, respectively]. SBP, deaths, mortality rate and PAF were all seen higher in rural[(130.25±20.66) mmHg, 11.234 million, 178.58/100 000 and 23.59%, respectively]than in urban[(128.58±19.77) mmHg, 9.645 million, 132.87/100 000 and 21.54%, respectively]areas. However, levels of SBP were similar in the east, central or west regions, with attributable deaths, attributable mortality rate and PAF the highest as 7.658 million 179.93/100 000, and 26.72% respectively. In 2013, among the Chinese people aged 25 years old and above, deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease attributable to high blood pressure were 19.912 million and 0.966 million, accounting for 52.31% of the total deaths due to cardiovascular diseases and 62.11% to the total chronic kidney diseases. The top three deaths attributable to high blood pressure were ischemic heart disease (6

  15. Volunteering by older adults and risk of mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Morris A; Yeung, Ellen WanHeung; Brown, Stephanie

    2013-06-01

    Organizational volunteering has been touted as an effective strategy for older adults to help themselves while helping others. Extending previous reviews, we carried out a meta-analysis of the relation between organizational volunteering by late-middle-aged and older adults (minimum age = 55 years old) and risk of mortality. We focused on unadjusted effect sizes (i.e., bivariate relations), adjusted effect sizes (i.e., controlling for other variables such as health), and interaction effect sizes (e.g., the joint effect of volunteering and religiosity). For unadjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 47%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38% to 55%. For adjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 24%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 16% to 31%. For interaction effect sizes, we found preliminary support that as public religiosity increases, the inverse relation between volunteering and mortality risk becomes stronger. The discussion identifies several unresolved issues and directions for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

    2018-01-01

    Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

  17. Smoking and Endogenous Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behavior?

    OpenAIRE

    Valerie Lechene; Jéróme Adda

    2001-01-01

    This paper proposes a joint model of tobacco consumption and mortality over the life-cycle. The decision to smoke is a trade off between current utility derived from smoking and a mortality risk increasing with age. Individuals with a longer potential life expectancy have more incentive to cut back on smoking and thus self select out of smoking. Using detailed data on mortality, morbidity and smoking we are able to identify this selection effect. We empirically evaluate its importance in expl...

  18. Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

    2017-12-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Mortality Risk Among Heart Failure Patients With Depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adelborg, Kasper; Schmidt, Morten; Sundbøll, Jens

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prevalence of depression is 4- to 5-fold higher in heart failure patients than in the general population. We examined the influence of depression on all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish medical registries, this nationwide population...... included 9636 patients with and 194 887 patients without a diagnosis of depression. Compared with patients without a history of depression, those with depression had higher 1-year (36% versus 33%) and 5-year (68% versus 63%) mortality risks. Overall, the adjusted mortality rate ratio was 1.03 (95% CI 1.......01-1.06). Compared with no depression, the adjusted mortality rate ratios for mild, moderate, and severe depression, as defined by diagnostic codes, were 1.06 (95% CI 1.00-1.13), 1.03 (95% CI 0.99-1.08), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.96-1.09), respectively. In a subcohort of patients, the mortality rate ratios were modified...

  20. Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gillian V. Pepper

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate. Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people’s health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

  1. Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit) and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate). Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people's health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

  2. Falling mortality when adjusted for comorbidity in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: relevance of multi-disciplinary care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Ali S; Saffouri, Eliana; McCloskey, Caroline; Craigen, Theresa; Angerson, Wilson J

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The understanding of changes in comorbidity might improve the management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB); such changes might not be detectable in short-term studies. We aimed to study UGIB mortality as adjusted for comorbidity and the trends in risk scores over a 14-year period. Methods Patients presenting with UGIB to a single institution, 1996–2010, were assessed. Those with multiple comorbidities were managed in a multi-disciplinary care unit since 2000. Trends with time were assessed using logistic regression, including those for Charlson comorbidity score, the complete Rockall score and 30-day mortality. Results 2669 patients were included. The Charlson comorbidity score increased significantly with time: the odds of a high (3+) score increasing at a relative rate of 4.4% a year (OR 1.044; p<0.001). The overall 30-day mortality was 4.9% and inpatient mortality was 7.1%; these showed no relationship with time. When adjusted for the increasing comorbidity, the odds of death decreased significantly at a relative rate of 4.5% per year (p=0.038). After the introduction of multi-disciplinary care, the raw mortality OR was 0.680 (p=0.08), and adjusted for comorbidity it was 0.566 (p=0.013). Conclusions 30-day mortality decreased when adjusted for the rising comorbidity in UGIB; whether this is related to the introduction of multi-disciplinary care needs to be considered. PMID:28839780

  3. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  4. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Tekeşin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  5. Low birth weights and risk of neonatal mortality in Indonesia

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    Suparmi Suparmi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Latar Belakang: Angka kematian neonatal di Indonesia mengalami stagnansi sejak sepuluh tahun terakhir. Dalam rangka mengakselerasi penurunan angka kematian neonatal di Indonesia, intervensi spesifik diperlukan pada faktor utama penyebab kematian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kontribusi berat badan lahir rendah terhadap kematian neonatal di Indonesia. Metode: Data Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012 digunakan untuk analisis. Sejumlah 18021 kelahiran hidup dalam periode lima tahun terakhir telah dilaporkan oleh responden. Terdapat 14837 anak memiliki informasi lengkap untuk analisis. Adjusted relative risk dengan analisis survival digunakan untuk mengukur hubungan antara variable dengan kematian neonatal. Hasil: Anak yang lahir dengan berat badan rendah memiliki risiko 9.89 kali lebih tinggi untuk kematian neonatal bila dibandingkan dengan anak yang lahir dengan berat badan normal [adjusted relative risk (aRR = 9.89; 95% confidence interval (CI: 7.41 – 13.19; P = < 0.0001]. Anak yang lahir dari ibu berumur muda (15 - 19 tahun memiliki risiko 94% lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan anak yang lahir dari ibu dengan umur antara 20-35 years. Anak dari ibu yang bekerja 81% memiliki risiko kematian neonatal lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan anak yang lahir dari ibu tidak bekerja. Kesimpulan: Anak yang lahir dengan berat badan rendah dan lahir dari ibu muda memiliki risiko kematian neonatal lebih tinggi. Bayi yang lahir dengan berat badan rendah membutuhkan perawatan yang tepat untuk memperpanjang ketahanan hidup anak. (Health Science Journal of Indonesia 2016;7(2:113-117 Kata kunci: Berat badan lahir rendah, kematian neonatal, Indonesia Abstract Background: Neonatal mortality rates in Indonesia remain steady in the past decades (20 in 2002 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2012. In order to accelerate the decline in neonatal mortality rate in Indonesia, specific interventions would have to target key factors causing

  6. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

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    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  7. Mortality study of Japanese radiological technologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyama, T.; Futamura, A.; Yamamoto, Y.; Kato, H.; Sugahara, T.

    1983-01-01

    Japanese radiological technologists occupationally have chances of receiving low doses of ionizing radiation. A cohort study was started on them in 1981, since knowledge of the mortality and health of this population is pertinent to the evaluation of the risk from low-level exposure to radiation. A sampling of 2028 Japanese radiological technologists born before 1933 was followed from 1969 to 1982. All deaths were confirmed by checking copies of family registers and the causes were obtained from death certificates. The deaths observed within this group were compared with the expected number of deaths from major causes as estimated using the Japanese life table of 1975. The number of deaths from all causes, 131, was less than the expected 182.39, a difference that is statistically significant at the 1% level. The observed number of deaths from all malignant neoplasms, 51, was slightly larger than that of the expected 48.94, although the difference was not statistically significant. However, there was a significant excess of observed deaths from brain tumour and malignant neoplasms of male urogenital organs in comparison with expected deaths. Deaths from anaemia also significantly exceeded the expected level. The relationship between dose level and cause of death as adjusted by age at death and first year of employment was investigated using contingency table analysis. Accumulated occupational doses were estimated for 599 of the population of 2028. The relative risk of mortality ratios for all causes of death and cancer of all sites in four dose categories, <50, 50-74, 75-99 and 100+ rad, increased with dose but the statistical tests did not show any significant association. Observation and analysis should be continued to check our present findings further and obtain more complete data. (author)

  8. Analysis of Potentials to Increase Iranian life Expectancy with Removing the Leading Causes of Mortality in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sasanipour

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Recent studies on Iranian mortality clearly underscore the role of cardiovascular diseases, unintentional injuries, and cancers as three leading causes of reduced life expectancy during the last three decades. The purpose of current study is to measure the effect of these causes on 2010 life table for Iran. Materials & Method:The number of registered death by age and sex and death distribution by cause for Iran in 2010 are obtained from death registration system operated by the Ministry of Health and to know more about the population at risk population forecast information of the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI is used. The obtained data are analyzed using Multiple Decrement Life Table and Kitagava analysis method. Results: The results show that three leading causes of death are account for 13 years potential lost life of Iranian men and women. More detailed results indicate that cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and unintentional injuries play larger roles in this regard while men are more likely to die by unintentional injuries than women. Life expectancy of middle aged men are more affected by unintentional injuries while old aged women are more affected by cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion: Particular consideration of risk factors of cardiovascular diseases of both sexes and males death by unintentional injuries is of utmost importance in reducing mortality rate and increasing life expectancy as a result.

  9. Culture, risk factors and mortality: can Switzerland add missing pieces to the European puzzle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faeh, D; Minder, C; Gutzwiller, F; Bopp, M

    2009-08-01

    The aim was to compare cause-specific mortality, self-rated health (SRH) and risk factors in the French and German part of Switzerland and to discuss to what extent variations between these regions reflect differences between France and Germany. Data were used from the general population of German and French Switzerland with 2.8 million individuals aged 45-74 years, contributing 176 782 deaths between 1990 and 2000. Adjusted mortality risks were calculated from the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal census-based record linkage study. Results were contrasted with cross-sectional analyses of SRH and risk factors (Swiss Health Survey 1992/3) and with cross-sectional national and international mortality rates for 1980, 1990 and 2000. Despite similar all-cause mortality, there were substantial differences in cause-specific mortality between Swiss regions. Deaths from circulatory disease were more common in German Switzerland, while causes related to alcohol consumption were more prevalent in French Switzerland. Many but not all of the mortality differences between the two regions could be explained by variations in risk factors. Similar patterns were found between Germany and France. Characteristic mortality and behavioural differentials between the German- and the French-speaking parts of Switzerland could also be found between Germany and France. However, some of the international variations in mortality were not in line with the Swiss regional comparison nor with differences in risk factors. These could relate to peculiarities in assignment of cause of death. With its cultural diversity, Switzerland offers the opportunity to examine cultural determinants of mortality without bias due to different statistical systems or national health policies.

  10. Motives for volunteering are associated with mortality risk in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrath, Sara; Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Lou, Alina; Brown, Stephanie

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of motives for volunteering on respondents' mortality risk 4 years later. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine whether motives for volunteering predicted later mortality risk, above and beyond volunteering itself, in older adults from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Covariates included age, gender, socioeconomic variables, physical, mental, and cognitive health, health risk behaviors, personality traits, received social support, and actual volunteering behavior. Replicating prior work, respondents who volunteered were at lower risk for mortality 4 years later, especially those who volunteered more regularly and frequently. However, volunteering behavior was not always beneficially related to mortality risk: Those who volunteered for self-oriented reasons had a mortality risk similar to nonvolunteers. Those who volunteered for other-oriented reasons had a decreased mortality risk, even in adjusted models. This study adds to the existing literature on the powerful effects of social interactions on health and is the first study to our knowledge to examine the effect of motives on volunteers' subsequent mortality. Volunteers live longer than nonvolunteers, but this is only true if they volunteer for other-oriented reasons.

  11. The effect of gender, age, and symptom severity in late-life depression on the risk of all-cause mortality: The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Breno S.; Reynolds, Charles F.; Butters, Meryl A.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Firmo, Josélia O. A.; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Castro-Costa, Erico

    2014-01-01

    Background Increased mortality risk and its moderators is an important, but still under recognized, negative outcome of Late-Life Depression (LLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a population-based study with over ten years of follow-up, and addressed the moderating effect of gender and symptom severity on mortality risk. Methods This analysis used data from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging. The study population comprised 1.508 (86.5%) of all eligible 1.742 elderly residents. Depressive symptoms were annually evaluated by the GHQ-12, with scores of 5 or higher indicating clinically significant depression. From 1997 to 2007, 441 participants died during 10,648 person-years of follow-up. We estimated the hazard ratio for mortality risk by Cox regression analyses. Results Depressive symptoms were a risk factor for all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounding lifestyle and clinical factors (adjusted HR=1.24 CI95% [1.00–1.55], p=0.05). Mortality risk was significantly elevated in men (adjusted HR=1.45 CI95% [1.01 – 2.07], p=0.04), but not in women (adjusted HR=1.13 CI95% [0.84 – 1.48], p=0.15). We observed a significant interaction between gender and depressive symptoms on mortality risk ((HR= 1.72 CI95% [1.18 – 2.49], p=0.004). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in the elderly, especially in men. The prevention and adequate treatment of LLD may help to reduce premature disability and death among elders with depressive symptoms. PMID:24353128

  12. Coffee intake, cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: observational and Mendelian randomization analyses in 95 000-223 000 individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordestgaard, Ask Tybjærg; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne

    2016-12-01

    Coffee has been associated with modestly lower risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in meta-analyses; however, it is unclear whether these are causal associations. We tested first whether coffee intake is associated with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality observationally; second, whether genetic variations previously associated with caffeine intake are associated with coffee intake; and third, whether the genetic variations are associated with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. First, we used multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models evaluated with restricted cubic splines to examine observational associations in 95 366 White Danes. Second, we estimated mean coffee intake according to five genetic variations near the AHR (rs4410790; rs6968865) and CYP1A1/2 genes (rs2470893; rs2472297; rs2472299). Third, we used sex- and age adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models to examine genetic associations with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in 112 509 Danes. Finally, we used sex and age-adjusted logistic regression models to examine genetic associations with ischaemic heart disease including the Cardiogram and C4D consortia in a total of up to 223 414 individuals. We applied similar analyses to ApoE genotypes associated with plasma cholesterol levels, as a positive control. In observational analyses, we observed U-shaped associations between coffee intake and cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality; lowest risks were observed in individuals with medium coffee intake. Caffeine intake allele score (rs4410790 + rs2470893) was associated with a 42% higher coffee intake. Hazard ratios per caffeine intake allele were 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.03) for ischaemic heart disease, 1.02 (0.99-1.02) for ischaemic stroke, 1.02 (1.00-1.03) for ischaemic vascular disease, 1.02 (0.99-1.06) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.01 (0.99-1.03) for all-cause mortality. Including

  13. Long-term wine consumption is related to cardiovascular mortality and life expectancy independently of moderate alcohol intake: the Zutphen Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Streppel, M.T.; Ocke, M.C.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Kok, F.J.; Kromhout, D.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Light to moderate alcohol intake lowers the risk of cardiovascular mortality, but whether this protective effect can be attributed to a specific type of beverage remains unclear. Moreover, little is known about the effects of long-term alcohol intake on life expectancy. Methods: The

  14. Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

    2012-05-01

    The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

  15. Then we all fall down: fall mortality by trauma center level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubik, Daniel; Cook, Alan D; Ward, Jeanette G; Chapple, Kristina M; Teperman, Sheldon; Stone, Melvin E; Gross, Brian; Moore, Forrest O

    2017-09-01

    Ground-level falls (GLFs) are the predominant mechanism of injury in US trauma centers and accompany a spectrum of comorbidities, injury severity, and physiologic derangement. Trauma center levels define tiers of capability to treat injured patients. We hypothesized that risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality (O:E) by trauma center level would evaluate the degree to which need for care was met by provision of care. This retrospective cohort study used National Trauma Data Bank files for 2007-2014. Trauma center level was defined as American College of Surgeons (ACS) level I/II, ACS III/IV, State I/II, and State III/IV for within-group homogeneity. Risk-adjusted expected mortality was estimated using hierarchical, multivariable regression techniques. Analysis of 812,053 patients' data revealed the proportion of GLF in the National Trauma Data Bank increased 8.7% (14.1%-22.8%) over the 8 y studied. Mortality was 4.21% overall with a three-fold increase for those aged 60 y and older versus younger than 60 y (4.93% versus 1.46%, P < 0.001). O:E was lowest for ACS III/IV, (0.973, 95% CI: 0.971-0.975) and highest for State III/IV (1.043, 95% CI: 1.041-1.044). Risk-adjusted outcomes can be measured and meaningfully compared among groups of trauma centers. Differential O:E for ACS III/IV and State III/IV centers suggests that factors beyond case mix alone influence outcomes for GLF patients. More work is needed to optimize trauma care for GLF patients across the spectrum of trauma center capability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Re-Evaluating the Possible Increased Risk of HIV Acquisition With Progestin-Only Injectables Versus Maternal Mortality and Life Expectancy in Africa: A Decision Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Maria Isabel; Gaffield, Mary E; Han, Leo; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-12-28

    The association between increased risk of HIV acquisition and use of progestin-only injectables (POIs) is controversial. We sought to compare the competing risks of maternal mortality and HIV acquisition with use of POIs using updated data on this association and considering an expanded number of African countries. We designed a decision-analytic model to compare the benefits and risks of POIs on the competing risks of maternal mortality and HIV acquisition on life expectancy for women in 9 African countries. For the purposes of this analysis, we assumed that POIs were associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition (hazards ratio of 1.4). Our primary outcome was life-years and the population was women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in these countries, who did not have HIV infection and were not currently planning a pregnancy. Probabilities for each variable included in the model, such as HIV incidence, access to antiretroviral therapy, and contraceptive prevalence, were obtained from the literature. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to check model assumptions and explore how uncertainty in estimates would affect the model results. In all countries, discontinuation of POIs without replacement with an equally effective contraceptive method would result in decreased life expectancy due to a significant increase in maternal deaths. While the removal of POIs from the market would result in the prevention of some new cases of HIV, the life-years gained from this are mitigated due to the marked increase in neonatal HIV cases and maternal mortality with associated life-years lost. In all countries, except South Africa, typical-use contraceptive failure rates with POIs would need to exceed 39%, and more than half of women currently using POIs would have to switch to another effective method, for the removal of POIs to demonstrate an increase in total life-years. Women living in sub-Saharan Africa cope with both high rates of HIV

  17. Volunteering and mortality risk: a partner-controlled quasi-experimental design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Dermot; Rosato, Michael; Moriarty, John; Leavey, Gerard

    2017-08-01

    The consensus that volunteering is associated with a lower mortality risk is derived from a body of observational studies and therefore vulnerable to uncontrolled or residual confounding. This potential limitation is likely to be particularly problematic for volunteers who, by definition, are self-selected and known to be significantly different from non-volunteers across a range of factors associated with better survival. This is a census-based record-linkage study of 308 733 married couples aged 25 and over, including 100 571 volunteers, with mortality follow-up for 33 months. We used a standard Cox model to examine whether mortality risk in the partners of volunteers was influenced by partner volunteering status-something expected if the effects of volunteering on mortality risk were due to shared household or behavioural characteristics. Volunteers were general more affluent, better educated and more religious than their non-volunteering peers; they also had a lower mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR)adj = 0.78: 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71, 0.85 for males and HRadj = 0.77: 95% CI = 0.68, 0.88 for females]. However, amongst cohort members who were not volunteers, having a partner who was a volunteer was not associated with a mortality advantage (HRadj = 1.01: 95% CI = 0.92, 1.11 for men and HRadj = 1.00: 95% CI = 0.88, 1.13 women). This study provides further evidence that the lower mortality associated with volunteering is unlikely to be due to health selection or to residual confounding arising from unmeasured selection effects within households. It therefore increases the plausibility of a direct causal effect. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

  18. Update of the mortality study of workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (Pcbs) in two Italian capacitor manufacturing plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Grillo, P; Consonni, D; Caironi, M; Sampietro, G; Olivari, Leonella; Ghisleni, Silvia; Bertazzi, P A

    2013-01-01

    PCB carcinogenicity to humans is still controversial. Cohort mortality studies in PCB-exposed workers reported elevated risks for the following causes of death: liver, stomach, digestive, brain, prostate cancers and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study was to update as of December 2006 the mortality experience of two Italian cohorts of workers employed in the manufacture of capacitors impregnated with PCBs. Age-gender-and calendar period adjusted Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated using regional rates. Analyses by duration of employment and time since first employment were performed Results: Vital status was ascertained for 98.9% of the study subjects. Mortality from biliary tract cancer among males (SMR 3.91; 95%CI 1.47-10.41), digestive cancer "not otherwise specified" in the whole cohort (SMR 2.54; 95%CI 1.21-5.34), and brain cancer in Plant I (SMR 2.13; 95%CI 1.02-4.48), were significantly increased. Increased risks were also observed for Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No linear associations between mortality and duration of employment or latency were observed for these cancers. Mortality from stomach cancer did not differ from expectation in the whole cohort, however an increasing risk with increasing duration of employment was detected (p for trend=0.02). The current update suggests possibly increased cancer risks in PCB-exposed workers, affecting in particular the digestive system, brain, and lymphohemopoietic tissue. However the limited sample size, the lack of clear trends with duration of employment or with latency period, preclude to derive definite conclusions about PCB exposure and the increased cancer risks.

  19. Where does distance matter? Distance to the closest maternity unit and risk of foetal and neonatal mortality in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilkington, Hugo; Blondel, Béatrice; Drewniak, Nicolas; Zeitlin, Jennifer

    2014-12-01

    The number of maternity units has declined in France, raising concerns about the possible impact of increasing travel distances on perinatal health outcomes. We investigated impact of distance to closest maternity unit on perinatal mortality. Data from the French National Vital Statistics Registry were used to construct foetal and neonatal mortality rates over 2001-08 by distance from mother's municipality of residence and the closest municipality with a maternity unit. Data from French neonatal mortality certificates were used to compute neonatal death rates after out-of-hospital birth. Relative risks by distance were estimated, adjusting for individual and municipal-level characteristics. Seven percent of births occurred to women residing at ≥30 km from a maternity unit and 1% at ≥45 km. Foetal and neonatal mortality rates were highest for women living at maternity unit. For foetal mortality, rates increased at ≥45 km compared with 5-45 km. In adjusted models, long distance to a maternity unit had no impact on overall mortality but women living closer to a maternity unit had a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Neonatal deaths associated with out-of-hospital birth were rare but more frequent at longer distances. At the municipal-level, higher percentages of unemployment and foreign-born residents were associated with increased mortality. Overall mortality was not associated with living far from a maternity unit. Mortality was elevated in municipalities with social risk factors and located closest to a maternity unit, reflecting the location of maternity units in deprived areas with risk factors for poor outcome. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

  20. Health inequalities in the Netherlands: trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by educational level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghe, Maria; Wubulihasimu, Parida; Peters, Frederik; Nusselder, Wilma; Van Baal, Pieter H M

    2016-10-01

    Quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) has been proposed as a summary measure of population health because it encompasses multiple health domains as well as length of life. However, trends in QALE by education or other socio-economic measure have not yet been reported. This study investigates changes in QALE stratified by educational level for the Dutch population in the period 2001-2011. Using data from multiple sources, we estimated mortality rates and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as functions of age, gender, calendar year and educational level. Subsequently, predictions from these regressions were combined for calculating QALE at ages 25 and 65. QALE changes were decomposed into effects of mortality and HRQoL. In 2001-2011, QALE increased for men and women at all educational levels, the largest increases being for highly educated resulting in a widening gap by education. In 2001, at age 25, the absolute QALE difference between the low and the highly educated was 7.4 healthy years (36.7 vs. 44.1) for men and 6.3 healthy years (39.5 vs. 45.8) for women. By 2011, the QALE difference increased to 8.1 healthy years (38.8 vs. 46.9) for men and to 7.1 healthy years (41.3 vs. 48.4) for women. Similar results were observed at age 65. Although the gap was largely attributable to widening inequalities in mortality, widening inequalities in HRQoL were also substantial. In the Netherlands, population health as measured by QALE has improved, but QALE inequalities have widened more than inequalities in life expectancy alone. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  1. Competing-Risks Mortality After Radiotherapy vs. Observation for Localized Prostate Cancer: A Population-based Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdollah, Firas, E-mail: firas.abdollah@gmail.com [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Sun, Maxine [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Schmitges, Jan [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany); Thuret, Rodolphe [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montpellier Health Centre, Montpellier (France); Tian, Zhe [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Shariat, Shahrokh F. [Department of Urology, Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York, NY (United States); Briganti, Alberto [Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Jeldres, Claudio; Perrotte, Paul [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Montorsi, Francesco [Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Karakiewicz, Pierre I. [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Contemporary patients with localized prostate cancer (PCa) are more frequently treated with radiotherapy. However, there are limited data on the effect of this treatment on cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Our objective was to test the relationship between radiotherapy and survival in men with localized PCa and compare it with those treated with observation. Methods: A population-based cohort identified 68,797 men with cT1-T2 PCa treated with radiotherapy or observation between the years 1992 and 2005. Propensity-score matching was used to minimize potential bias related to treatment assignment. Competing-risks analyses tested the effect of treatment type (radiotherapy vs. observation) on CSM, after accounting to other-cause mortality. All analyses were carried out within PCa risk, baseline comorbidity status, and age groups. Results: Radiotherapy was associated with more favorable 10-year CSM rates than observation in patients with high-risk PCa (8.8 vs. 14.4%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.68). Conversely, the beneficial effect of radiotherapy on CSM was not evident in patients with low-intermediate risk PCa (3.7 vs. 4.1%, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.80-1.04). Radiotherapy was beneficial in elderly patients (5.6 vs. 7.3%, HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.59-0.80). Moreover, it was associated with improved CSM rates among patients with no comorbidities (5.7 vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.98), one comorbidity (4.6 vs. 6.0%, HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99), and more than two comorbidities (4.2 vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.96). Conclusions: Radiotherapy substantially improves CSM in patients with high-risk PCa, with little or no benefit in patients with low-/intermediate-risk PCa relative to observation. These findings must be interpreted within the context of the limitations of observational data.

  2. Friendship Expectations and Children's Friendship-Related Behavior and Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacEvoy, Julie Paquette; Papadakis, Alison A.; Fedigan, Shea K.; Ash, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    Although relationship expectations are thought to influence all social interactions, little is known about the function of children's friendship expectations. This study examined the associations among children's friendship expectations and their behavior within their friendships, their friendship adjustment, and their socioemotional functioning.…

  3. Bladder cancer mortality of workers exposed to aromatic amines: a 58-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pira, Enrico; Piolatto, Giorgio; Negri, Eva; Romano, Canzio; Boffetta, Paolo; Lipworth, Loren; McLaughlin, Joseph K; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2010-07-21

    We previously investigated bladder cancer risk in a cohort of dyestuff workers who were heavily exposed to aromatic amines from 1922 through 1972. We updated the follow-up by 14 years (through 2003) for 590 exposed workers to include more than 30 years of follow-up since last exposure to aromatic amines. Expected numbers of deaths from bladder cancer and other causes were computed by use of national mortality rates from 1951 to 1980 and regional mortality rates subsequently. There were 394 deaths, compared with 262.7 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval = 1.36 to 1.66). Overall, 56 deaths from bladder cancer were observed, compared with 3.4 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 16.5, 95% confidence interval = 12.4 to 21.4). The standardized mortality ratio for bladder cancer increased with younger age at first exposure and increasing duration of exposure. Although the standardized mortality ratio for bladder cancer steadily decreased with time since exposure stopped, the absolute risk remained approximately constant at 3.5 deaths per 1000 man-years up to 29 years after exposure stopped. Excess risk was apparent 30 years or more after last exposure.

  4. Population-Based Estimates of Decreases in Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Associated with Unhealthy Body Mass Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Haomiao; Zack, Matthew M; Thompson, William W

    2016-01-01

    Being classified as outside the normal range for body mass index (BMI) has been associated with increased risk for chronic health conditions, poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and premature death. To assess the impact of BMI on HRQOL and mortality, we compared quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by BMI levels. We obtained HRQOL data from the 1993-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and life table estimates from the National Center for Health Statistics national mortality files to estimate QALE among U.S. adults by BMI categories: underweight (BMI overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)), obese (BMI 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), and severely obese (BMI ≥35.0 kg/m(2)). In 2010 in the United States, the highest estimated QALE for adults at 18 years of age was 54.1 years for individuals classified as normal weight. The two lowest QALE estimates were for those classified as either underweight (48.9 years) or severely obese (48.2 years). For individuals who were overweight or obese, the QALE estimates fell between those classified as either normal weight (54.1 years) or severely obese (48.2 years). The difference in QALE between adults classified as normal weight and those classified as either overweight or obese was significantly higher among women than among men, irrespective of race/ethnicity. Using population-based data, we found significant differences in QALE loss by BMI category. These findings are valuable for setting national and state targets to reduce health risks associated with severe obesity, and could be used for cost-effectiveness evaluations of weight-reduction interventions.

  5. Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2010-08-20

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods

  6. Mortality risk in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis and its association to asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alt, Jeremiah A; Thomas, Andrew J; Curtin, Karen; Wong, Jathine; Rudmik, Luke; Orlandi, Richard R

    2017-06-01

    Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a highly prevalent inflammatory condition, with significant effects on morbidity and quality of life. Given that other chronic inflammatory conditions have been associated with increased mortality risk, we sought to evaluate the relationship between mortality and CRS including the influence of asthma. Our objective was to determine if CRS, with or without asthma, is associated with altered risk of mortality. Using a statewide population database, we retrospectively identified 27,005 patients diagnosed with CRS between 1996 and 2012, and 134,440 unaffected controls matched 5:1 on birth year and sex. Risk of mortality was determined from Cox models and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare survival. A significant interaction between CRS and asthma status was observed in which CRS appeared to confer a protective effect in asthma patients. Asthma, when present, increased mortality in CRS-negative controls (p-interaction risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.85) compared to controls. However, in patients diagnosed at or before the median age of CRS onset (42 years) independent of asthma status, survival was not improved (HR = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.18). Risk of mortality was greater in CRS with nasal polyps (n = 1643) compared to 25,362 polyp-negative CRS patients (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.77). CRS was associated with lower risk of mortality compared to controls, and appeared to mitigate increased mortality from asthma. We posit that better survival conferred by CRS may be secondary to treatment. However, the etiology of this relationship and the effect of CRS treatment on mortality are unknown. © 2017 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

  7. Quantitative risk assessment of salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolt Atlantic salmon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Norwegian government recently implemented a new management system to regulate salmon farming in Norway, aiming to promote environmentally sustainable growth in the aquaculture industry. The Norwegian coast has been divided into 13 production zones and the volume of salmonid production in the zones will be regulated based on salmon lice effects on wild salmonids. Here we present a model for assessing salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolts of Atlantic salmon. The model quantifies expected salmon lice infestations and louse-induced mortality of migrating post-smolt salmon from 401 salmon rivers draining into Norwegian coastal waters. It is assumed that migrating post-smolts follow the shortest path from river outlets to the high seas, at constant progression rates. During this migration, fish are infested by salmon lice of farm origin according to an empirical infestation model. Furthermore, louse-induced mortality is estimated from the estimated louse infestations. Rivers draining into production zones on the West Coast of Norway were at the highest risk of adverse lice effects. In comparison, rivers draining into northerly production zones, along with the southernmost production zone, were at lower risk. After adjusting for standing stock biomass, estimates of louse-egg output varied by factors of up to 8 between production zones. Correlation between biomass adjusted output of louse infestation and densities of farmed salmon in the production zones suggests that a large-scale density-dependent host-parasite effect is a major driver of louse infestation rates and parasite-induced mortality. The estimates are sensitive to many of the processes in the chain of events in the model. Nevertheless, we argue that the model is suited to assess spatial and temporal risks associated with farm-origin salmon lice. Keywords: Density dependent, Sea lice, Transmission, Farmed salmon, Migration pathway, Migration time

  8. A retrospective cohort study of shift work and risk of cancer-specific mortality in German male chemical workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Mei; Nasterlack, Michael; Messerer, Peter; Oberlinner, Christoph; Lang, Stefan

    2014-02-01

    Human evidence of carcinogenicity concerning shift work is inconsistent. In a previous study, we observed no elevated risk of total mortality in shift workers followed up until the end of 2006. The present study aimed to investigate cancer-specific mortality, relative to shift work. The cohort consisted of male production workers (14,038 shift work and 17,105 day work), employed at BASF Ludwigshafen for at least 1 year between 1995 and 2005. Vital status was followed from 2000 to 2009. Cause-specific mortality was obtained from death certificates. Exposure to shift work was measured both as a dichotomous and continuous variable. While lifetime job history was not available, job duration in the company was derived from personal data, which was then categorized at the quartiles. Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust for potential confounders, in which job duration was treated as a time-dependent covariate. Between 2000 and 2009, there were 513 and 549 deaths among rotating shift and day work employees, respectively. Risks of total and cancer-specific mortalities were marginally lower among shift workers when taking age at entry and job level into consideration and were statistically significantly lower when cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, job duration, and chronic disease prevalence at entry to follow-up were included as explanatory factors. With respect to mortality risks in relation to exposure duration, no increased risks were found in any of the exposure groups after full adjustment and there was no apparent trend suggesting an exposure-response relation with duration of shift work. The present analysis extends and confirms our previous finding of no excess risk of mortality associated with work in the shift system employed at BASF Ludwigshafen. More specifically, there is also no indication of an increased risk of mortality due to cancer.

  9. Russian mortality beyond vital statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of routine data have established that the extreme mortality fluctuations among young and middle-aged men are the most important single component of both temporal changes in Russian life expectancy at birth and in the gap between male and female life expectancy. It is also responsible for the largest share of the life expectancy gap between Russia and other industrialised countries. A case-control study has been used to identify factors associated with mortality among men aged 20 to 55 in the five major cities of the Udmurt Republic in 1998-99. Men dying from external causes and circulatory disease are taken as cases. Matched controls were selected from men of the same age living in the same neighbourhood of residence. Information about characteristics of cases and controls was obtained by interviewing proxies who were family members or friends of the subjects. After exclusion of those deaths for which proxy informant could not be identified, a total of 205 circulatory disease and 333 external cause cases were included together with the same number of controls. Educational level was significantly associated with mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes in a crude analysis. However, this could largely be explained by adjustment for employment, marital status, smoking and alcohol consumption. Smoking was associated with mortality from circulatory disease (crude OR=2.44, 95% CI 1.36-4.36, this effect being slightly attenuated after adjustment for socio-economic factors and alcohol consumption. Unemployment was associated with a large increase in the risk of death from external causes (crude OR=3.63, 95% CI 2.17-6.08, an effect that was still substantial after adjustment for other variables (adjusted OR=2.52, 95% CI 1.43-4.43. A reported history of periods of heavy drinking was linked to both deaths from circulatory disease (crude OR=4.21, 95% CI 2.35-7.55 and external cause mortality (crude OR=2.65, 95% CI 1

  10. Prevalent and incident tuberculosis are independent risk factors for mortality among patients accessing antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Gupta

    Full Text Available Patients with prevalent or incident tuberculosis (TB in antiretroviral treatment (ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have high mortality risk. However, published data are contradictory as to whether TB is a risk factor for mortality that is independent of CD4 cell counts and other patient characteristics.This observational ART cohort study was based in Cape Town, South Africa. Deaths from all causes were ascertained among patients receiving ART for up to 8 years. TB diagnoses and 4-monthly CD4 cell counts were recorded. Mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR and identify risk factors for mortality. Of 1544 patients starting ART, 464 patients had prevalent TB at baseline and 424 developed incident TB during a median of 5.0 years follow-up. Most TB diagnoses (73.6% were culture-confirmed. A total of 208 (13.5% patients died during ART and mortality rates were 8.84 deaths/100 person-years during the first year of ART and decreased to 1.14 deaths/100 person-years after 5 years. In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline and time-updated risk factors, both prevalent and incident TB were independent risk factors for mortality (IRR 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2-2.3] and 2.7 [95% CI, 1.9-3.8], respectively. Adjusted mortality risks were higher in the first 6 months of ART for those with prevalent TB at baseline (IRR 2.33; 95% CI, 1.5-3.5 and within the 6 months following diagnoses of incident TB (IRR 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6-5.7.Prevalent TB at baseline and incident TB during ART were strongly associated with increased mortality risk. This effect was time-dependent, suggesting that TB and mortality are likely to be causally related and that TB is not simply an epiphenomenon among highly immunocompromised patients. Strategies to rapidly diagnose, treat and prevent TB prior to and during ART urgently need to be implemented.

  11. Conformity expectations: Differential effects on IVF twins and singletons' parent-child relationships and adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Kayla N; Rueter, Martha A; Connor, Jennifer J; Chen, Muzi; Damario, Mark

    2015-08-01

    Increased utilization of in vitro fertilization (IVF) to treat infertility has resulted in a growing twin birthrate. Despite early childhood risks, twins have fewer psychosocial problems in middle childhood than singleton children. This study proposes that parents' conformity expectations for children have differential effects on parent-child relationships for twin and singleton children, which indirectly explains twins' more optimum psychosocial adjustment. Parental conformity expectations, parent-child relationship satisfaction, and children's emotional, behavioral, and attention problems were assessed in a sample of 288 6- to 12-year-old IVF-conceived twins and singletons. Overall, parents of twins had higher expectations for child conformity to parent rules than singleton parents. Path models demonstrate that twin status and parental expectations for child conformity interact to influence parent-child relationships, and this interaction indirectly accounted for differences in twins' and singletons' psychosocial adjustment. Findings suggest parenting constructs have differential influences on the association between twin status and parent-child relationships. Parenting research, predominantly conducted with singletons, should be reexamined before applying existing research to twin children and their families. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Hilary

    2007-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those

  13. Negative Control Outcomes and the Analysis of Standardized Mortality Ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Keil, Alexander P; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; Cooper, Glinda

    2015-09-01

    In occupational cohort mortality studies, epidemiologists often compare the observed number of deaths in the cohort to the expected number obtained by multiplying person-time accrued in the study cohort by the mortality rate in an external reference population. Interpretation of the result may be difficult due to noncomparability of the occupational cohort and reference population with respect to unmeasured risk factors for the outcome of interest. We describe an approach to estimate an adjusted standardized mortality ratio (aSMR) to control for such bias. The approach draws on methods developed for the use of negative control outcomes. Conditions necessary for unbiased estimation are described, as well as looser conditions necessary for bias reduction. The approach is illustrated using data on bladder cancer mortality among male Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. The SMR for bladder cancer was elevated among hourly-paid males (SMR = 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3, 2.7) but not among monthly-paid males (SMR = 1.0; 95% CI = 0.67, 1.3). After indirect adjustment using the proposed approach, the mortality ratios were similar in magnitude among hourly- and monthly-paid men (aSMR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.5, 3.2; and, aSMR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4, 2.8, respectively). The proposed adjusted SMR offers a complement to typical SMR analyses.

  14. Peritonitis in Rwanda: Epidemiology and risk factors for morbidity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndayizeye, Leonard; Ngarambe, Christian; Smart, Blair; Riviello, Robert; Majyambere, Jean Paul; Rickard, Jennifer

    2016-12-01

    Few studies discuss causes and outcomes of peritonitis in low-income settings. This study describes epidemiology of patients with peritonitis at a Rwandan referral hospital. Identification of risk factors associated with mortality and unplanned reoperation could improve management of peritonitis. Data were collected on demographics, clinical presentation, operative findings, and outcomes for all patients with peritonitis. Multivariate regression analysis identified factors associated with in-hospital mortality and unplanned reoperation. A total of 280 patients presented with peritonitis over a 6-month period. Causes of peritonitis were complications of intestinal obstruction (39%) and appendicitis (17%). Thirty-six (13%) patients required unplanned reoperation, and in-hospital mortality was 17%. Factors associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality were unplanned reoperation (adjusted odds ratio 34.12), vasopressor use (adjusted odds ratio 24.91), abnormal white blood cell count (adjusted odds ratio 12.6), intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio 9.06), and American Society of Anesthesiologist score ≥3 (adjusted odds ratio 7.80). Factors associated with increased odds of unplanned reoperation included typhoid perforation (adjusted odds ratio 5.92) and hypoxia on admission (adjusted odds ratio 3.82). Peritonitis in Rwanda presents with high morbidity and mortality. Minimizing delays in care is important, as many patients with intestinal obstruction present with features of peritonitis. A better understanding of patient care and management prior to arrival at the referral hospital is needed to identify areas for improvement at the health center and district hospital. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at older ages: a longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

    2016-08-01

    Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Longitudinal cohort study of 1964 community-dwelling adults aged 65-79 years. The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% CI 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and gender. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

  16. Sleep duration and risk of stroke mortality among Chinese adults: Singapore Chinese health study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, An; De Silva, Deidre Anne; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

    2014-06-01

    Prospective relation between sleep duration and stroke risk is less studied, particularly in Asians. We examined the association between sleep duration and stroke mortality among Chinese adults. The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a population-based cohort of 63 257 Chinese adults aged 45 to 74 years enrolled during 1993 through 1998. Sleep duration at baseline was assessed via in-person interview, and death information during follow-up was ascertained via record linkage with the death registry up to December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios with adjustment for other comorbidities and lifestyle risk factors of stroke mortality. During 926 752 person-years of follow-up, we documented 1381 stroke deaths (322 from hemorrhagic and 1059 from ischemic or nonspecified strokes). Compared with individuals with 7 hours per day of sleep, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of total stroke mortality was 1.25 (1.05-1.50) for ≤5 hours per day (short duration), 1.01 (0.87-1.18) for 6 hours per day, 1.09 (0.95-1.26) for 8 hours per day, and 1.54 (1.28-1.85) for ≥9 hours per day (long duration). The increased risk of stroke death with short (1.54; 1.16-2.03) and long durations of sleep (1.95; 1.48-2.57) was seen among subjects with a history of hypertension, but not in those without hypertension. These findings were limited to risk of death from ischemic or nonspecified stroke, but not observed for hemorrhagic stroke. Both short and long sleep durations are associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in a Chinese population, particularly among those with a history of hypertension. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

    2014-05-01

    Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

  18. A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

    2013-03-01

    In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Future mortality: a bumpy road to Shangri-La?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2005-04-06

    Americans are getting fatter, and it is known that increased obesity may increase the risk of death. Olshansky et al. have argued that this increase in obesity will likely slow, or even reverse, increases in life expectancy in the United States and perhaps save U.S. Social Security as a result. We discuss historical changes in the mortality rate and the reasons why other analyses argue that life expectancies will continue to increase. We also discuss the limitations of using single risk factors such as obesity as predictors of mortality risk. Finally, we explore the relation between risk factors and the long-term historical increase in human life expectancy.

  20. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  1. Case-mix and the use of control charts in monitoring mortality rates after coronary artery bypass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is debate about the role of crude mortality rates and case-mix adjusted mortality rates in monitoring the outcomes of treatment. In the context of quality improvement a key purpose of monitoring is to identify special cause variation as this type of variation should be investigated to identify possible causes. This paper investigates agreement between the identification of special cause variation in risk adjusted and observed hospital specific mortality rates after coronary artery bypass grafting in New York hospitals. Methods Coronary artery bypass grafting mortality rates between 1994 and 2003 were obtained from the New York State Department of Health's cardiovascular reports for 41 hospitals. Cross-sectional control charts of crude (observed and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each year. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond the 99.9% probability limits: hospitals showing special cause variation were identified for each year. Longitudinal control charts of crude (observed and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each hospital with data for all ten years (n = 27. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond 99.9% probability limits, two out of three consecutive data points beyond 95% probability limits (two standard deviations from the mean or a run of five consecutive points on one side of the mean. Years showing special cause variation in mortality were identified for each hospital. Cohen's Kappa was calculated for agreement between special causes identified in crude and risk-adjusted control charts. Results In cross sectional analysis the Cohen's Kappa was 0.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.28 to 0.78, indicating moderate agreement between the crude and risk-adjusted control charts with sensitivity 0.4 (95% confidence interval 0.17–0.69 and specificity 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–0.99. In longitudinal analysis, the Cohen's Kappa was 0.61 (95

  2. Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

  3. Epidemiology of perforated peptic ulcer: Age- and gender-adjusted analysis of incidence and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Glomsaker, Tom; Søreide, Kjetil

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the epidemiological trends in incidence and mortality of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) in a well-defined Norwegian population. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based, single-center, consecutive cohort study of all patients diagnosed with benign perforated peptic ulcer. Included were both gastric and duodenal ulcer patients admitted to Stavanger University Hospital between January 2001 and December 2010. Ulcers with a malignant neoplasia diagnosis, verified by histology after biopsy or resection, were excluded. Patients were identified from the hospitals administrative electronic database using pertinent ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes (K25.1, K25.2, K25.5, K25.6, K26.1, K26.2, K26.5, K26.6). Additional searches using appropriate codes for relevant laparoscopic and open surgical procedures (e.g., JDA 60, JDA 61, JDH 70 and JDH 71) were performed to enable a complete identification of all patients. Patient demographics, presentation patterns and clinical data were retrieved from hospital records and surgical notes. Crude and adjusted incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using national population demographics data. RESULTS: In the study period, a total of 172 patients with PPU were identified. The adjusted incidence rate for the overall 10-year period was 6.5 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 5.6-7.6) and the adjusted mortality rate for the overall 10-year period was 1.1 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 0.7-1.6). A non-significant decline in adjusted incidence rate from 9.7 to 5.6 occurred during the decade. The standardized mortality ratio for the whole study period was 5.7 (95%CI: 3.9-8.2), while the total 30-d mortality was 16.3%. No difference in incidence or mortality was found between genders. However, for patients ≥ 60 years, the incidence increased over 10-fold, and mortality more than 50-fold, compared to younger ages. The admission rates outside office hours were high with almost two out of three (63%) admissions seen at evening

  4. Mortality and life expectancy in persons with severe unipolar depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Musliner, Katherine L; Benros, Michael E

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Depression is a common psychiatric disorder, with a lifetime prevalence of 10-15% in the Danish population. Although depression is associated with excess mortality, it is not yet understood how this affects life expectancy. Our aim was to examine mortality rates and life expectancy...... in patients with unipolar depression compared to the general population, and to assess the impact of comorbid somatic illness and substance abuse. METHODS: We followed a Danish population-based cohort from 1995-2013 (N=5,103,699). The cohort included all residents in Denmark during the study period. Mortality...... rate ratios (MRRs) and life expectancy in persons with unipolar depression were calculated using survival analysis techniques. RESULTS: The overall MRR was 2.07 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.05-2.09) in people with a previous unipolar depression diagnosis compared to the general Danish population...

  5. Established risk factors account for most of the racial differences in cardiovascular disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean O Henderson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD mortality varies across racial and ethnic groups in the U.S., and the extent that known risk factors can explain the differences has not been extensively explored. METHODS: We examined the risk of dying from acute myocardial infarction (AMI and other heart disease (OHD among 139,406 African-American (AA, Native Hawaiian (NH, Japanese-American (JA, Latino and White men and women initially free from cardiovascular disease followed prospectively between 1993-1996 and 2003 in the Multiethnic Cohort Study (MEC. During this period, 946 deaths from AMI and 2,323 deaths from OHD were observed. Relative risks of AMI and OHD mortality were calculated accounting for established CVD risk factors: body mass index (BMI, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, amount of vigorous physical activity, educational level, diet and, for women, type and age at menopause and hormone replacement therapy (HRT use. RESULTS: Established CVD risk factors explained much of the observed racial and ethnic differences in risk of AMI and OHD mortality. After adjustment, NH men and women had greater risks of OHD than Whites (69% excess, P<0.001 and 62% excess, P = 0.003, respectively, and AA women had greater risks of AMI (48% excess, P = 0.01 and OHD (35% excess, P = 0.007. JA men had lower risks of AMI (51% deficit, P<0.001 and OHD (27% deficit, P = 0.001, as did JA women (AMI, 37% deficit, P = 0.03; OHD, 40% deficit, P = 0.001. Latinos had underlying lower risk of AMI death (26% deficit in men and 35% in women, P = 0.03. CONCLUSION: Known risk factors explain the majority of racial and ethnic differences in mortality due to AMI and OHD. The unexplained excess in NH and AA and the deficits in JA suggest the presence of unmeasured determinants for cardiovascular mortality that are distributed unequally across these populations.

  6. Income inequality, life expectancy and cause-specific mortality in 43 European countries, 1987-2008: a fixed effects study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yannan; van Lenthe, Frank J; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2015-08-01

    Whether income inequality is related to population health is still open to debate. We aimed to critically assess the relationship between income inequality and mortality in 43 European countries using comparable data between 1987 and 2008, controlling for time-invariant and time-variant country-level confounding factors. Annual data on income inequality, expressed as Gini index based on net household income, were extracted from the Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database. Data on life expectancy at birth and age-standardized mortality by cause of death were obtained from the Human Lifetable Database and the World Health Organization European Health for All Database. Data on infant mortality were obtained from the United Nations World Population Prospects Database. The relationships between income inequality and mortality indicators were studied using country fixed effects models, adjusted for time trends and country characteristics. Significant associations between income inequality and many mortality indicators were found in pooled cross-sectional regressions, indicating higher mortality in countries with larger income inequalities. Once the country fixed effects were added, all associations between income inequality and mortality indicators became insignificant, except for mortality from external causes and homicide among men, and cancers among women. The significant results for homicide and cancers disappeared after further adjustment for indicators of democracy, education, transition to national independence, armed conflicts, and economic freedom. Cross-sectional associations between income inequality and mortality seem to reflect the confounding effects of other country characteristics. In a European context, national levels of income inequality do not have an independent effect on mortality.

  7. The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

    2016-04-01

    A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Syndromic surveillance system based on near real-time cattle mortality monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, G; Ciaravino, V; Ascaso, S; Flores, V; Romero, L; Simón, F

    2015-05-01

    Early detection of an infectious disease incursion will minimize the impact of outbreaks in livestock. Syndromic surveillance based on the analysis of readily available data can enhance traditional surveillance systems and allow veterinary authorities to react in a timely manner. This study was based on monitoring the number of cattle carcasses sent for rendering in the veterinary unit of Talavera de la Reina (Spain). The aim was to develop a system to detect deviations from expected values which would signal unexpected health events. Historical weekly collected dead cattle (WCDC) time series stabilized by the Box-Cox transformation and adjusted by the minimum least squares method were used to build the univariate cycling regression model based on a Fourier transformation. Three different models, according to type of production system, were built to estimate the baseline expected number of WCDC. Two types of risk signals were generated: point risk signals when the observed value was greater than the upper 95% confidence interval of the expected baseline, and cumulative risk signals, generated by a modified cumulative sum algorithm, when the cumulative sums of reported deaths were above the cumulative sum of expected deaths. Data from 2011 were used to prospectively validate the model generating seven risk signals. None of them were correlated to infectious disease events but some coincided, in time, with very high climatic temperatures recorded in the region. The harvest effect was also observed during the first week of the study year. Establishing appropriate risk signal thresholds is a limiting factor of predictive models; it needs to be adjusted based on experience gained during the use of the models. To increase the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions epidemiological interpretation of non-specific risk signals should be complemented by other sources of information. The methodology developed in this study can enhance other existing early detection

  9. Variability modifies life satisfaction's association with mortality risk in older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehm, Julia K.; Winning, Ashley; Segerstrom, Suzanne; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2015-01-01

    Life satisfaction is associated with greater longevity, but its variability across time has not been examined relative to longevity. We investigated whether mean levels of life satisfaction across time, variability in life satisfaction across time, and their interaction were associated with mortality over 9 years of follow-up. Participants were 4,458 Australians initially ≥50 years old. During the follow-up, 546 people died. Adjusting for age, greater mean life satisfaction was associated with reduced risk and greater variability in life satisfaction was associated with increased risk of mortality. These findings were qualified by a significant interaction such that individuals with low mean satisfaction and high variability in satisfaction had the greatest risk of mortality over the follow-up period. In combination with mean levels of life satisfaction, variability in life satisfaction is relevant for mortality risk among older adults. Considering intraindividual variability provides additional insight into associations between psychological characteristics and health. PMID:26048888

  10. Potential Gains in Reproductive-Aged Life Expectancy by Eliminating Maternal Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Liu, L; Zimmerman, L

    2014-01-01

    Objective: We assessed the change over time in the contribution of maternal mortality to a life expectancy calculated between ages 15 and 49, or Reproductive-Aged Life Expectancy (RALE). Our goal was to estimate the increase in RALE in developed countries over the twentieth century and the hypoth......Objective: We assessed the change over time in the contribution of maternal mortality to a life expectancy calculated between ages 15 and 49, or Reproductive-Aged Life Expectancy (RALE). Our goal was to estimate the increase in RALE in developed countries over the twentieth century....... Findings: In developed countries, five years in RALE were gained over the twentieth century, of which approximately 10%, or half a year, was attributable to reductions in maternal mortality. In sub-Saharan African countries, the possible achievable gains fluctuate between 0.24 and 1.47 years, or 6% and 44...

  11. Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heijink, Richard; van Baal, Pieter; Oppe, Mark; Koolman, Xander; Westert, Gert

    2011-06-23

    The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH) have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers of differences in health-state values across populations. This

  12. Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oppe Mark

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL. We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. Methods We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. Results QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. Conclusions The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers

  13. A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanczyk, C A; Rohde, L E; Philbin, E A; Di Salvo, T G

    1998-10-01

    Comparative analysis of hospital outcomes requires reliable adjustment for casemix. Although congestive heart failure is one of the most common indications for hospitalization, congestive heart failure casemix adjustment has not been widely studied. The purposes of this study were (1) to describe and validate a new congestive heart failure-specific casemix adjustment index to predict in-hospital mortality and (2) to compare its performance to the Charlson comorbidity index. Data from all 4,608 admissions to the Massachusetts General Hospital from January 1990 to July 1996 with a principal ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were evaluated. Massachusetts General Hospital patients were randomly divided in a derivation and a validation set. By logistic regression, odds ratios for in-hospital death were computed and weights were assigned to construct a new predictive index in the derivation set. The performance of the index was tested in an internal Massachusetts General Hospital validation set and in a non-Massachusetts General Hospital external validation set incorporating data from all 1995 New York state hospital discharges with a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. Based on the new index, patients were assigned to six categories with incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates ranging from 0.5% to 31%. By logistic regression, "c" statistics of the congestive heart failure-specific index (0.83 and 0.78, derivation and validation set) were significantly superior to the Charlson index (0.66). Similar incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates were observed in the New York database with the congestive heart failure-specific index ("c" statistics 0.75). In an administrative database, this congestive heart failure-specific index may be a more adequate casemix adjustment tool to predict hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for congestive heart failure.

  14. Sleep duration and risk of stroke mortality among Chinese adults: the Singapore Chinese Health Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, An; De Silva, Deidre Anne; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Prospective relation between sleep duration and stroke risk is less studied, particularly in Asians. We examined the association between sleep duration and stroke mortality among Chinese adults. Methods The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a population-based cohort of 63,257 Chinese adults aged 45-74 years enrolled during 1993 through 1998. Sleep duration at baseline was assessed via in-person interview, and death information during follow-up was ascertained via record linkage with the death registry up to December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with adjustment for other comorbidities and lifestyle risk factors of stroke mortality. Results During 926,752 person-years of follow-up, we documented 1,381 stroke deaths (322 from hemorrhagic and 1,059 from ischemic or non-specified strokes). Compared to individuals with 7 hours/day of sleep, the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval) of total stroke mortality was 1.25 (1.05-1.50) for ≤5 hours/day (short duration), 1.01 (0.87-1.18) for 6 hours/day, 1.09 (0.95-1.26) for 8 hours/day, and 1.54 (1.28-1.85) for ≥9 hours/day (long duration). The increased risk of stroke death with short (1.54; 1.16-2.03) and long duration of sleep (1.95; 1.48-2.57) was seen among subjects with a history of hypertension, but not in those without hypertension. These findings were limited to risk of death from ischemic or non-specified stroke, but not observed for hemorrhagic stroke. Conclusions Both short and long sleep durations are associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in a Chinese population, particularly among those with a history of hypertension. PMID:24743442

  15. Alcohol's Collateral Damage: Childhood Exposure to Problem Drinkers and Subsequent Adult Mortality Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Richard G; Lawrence, Elizabeth M; Montez, Jennifer Karas

    2016-12-07

    The importance of childhood circumstances, broadly defined, for shaping adult health and longevity is well-established. But the significance of one of the most prevalent childhood adversities-exposure to problem drinkers-has been understudied from a sociological perspective and remains poorly understood. We address this gap by drawing on cumulative inequality theory, using data from the 1988-2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, and estimating Cox proportional hazards models to examine the relationship between exposure to problem drinkers in childhood and adult mortality risk. Childhood exposure to problem drinkers is common (nearly 1 in 5 individuals were exposed) and elevates adult overall and cause-specific mortality risk. Compared to individuals who had not lived with a problem drinker during childhood, those who had done so suffered 17 percent higher risk of death (prisk. Favorable socioeconomic status in adulthood does not ameliorate the consequences of childhood exposure to problem drinkers. The primary intervening mechanisms are risky behaviors, including adult drinking and smoking. The findings-which reveal that the influence of problem drinking is far-reaching and long-term-should inform policies to improve childhood circumstances, reduce detrimental effects of problem drinking, and increase life expectancy.

  16. Age-at-exposure effects on risk estimates for non-cancer mortality in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Muirhead, Colin R; Hunter, Nezahat

    2005-01-01

    Statistically significant increases in non-cancer disease mortality with radiation dose have been observed among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The increasing trends arise particularly for diseases of the circulatory, digestive, and respiratory systems. Rates for survivors exposed to a dose of 1 Sv are elevated by about 10%, a smaller relative increase than that for cancer. The aetiology of this increased risk is not yet understood. Neither animal nor human studies have found clear evidence for excess non-cancer mortality at the lower range of doses received by A-bomb survivors. In this paper, we examine the age and time patterns of excess risks in the A-bomb survivors. The results suggest that the excess relative risk of non-cancer disease mortality might be highest for exposure at ages 30-49 years, and that those exposed at ages 0-29 years might have a very low excess relative risk compared with those exposed at older ages. The differences in excess relative risk for different age-at-exposure groups imply that the dose response relationships for non-cancer disease mortality need to be modelled with adjustment for age-at-exposure

  17. Coffee intake, cardiovascular disease and allcause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordestgaard, Ask Tybjærg; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne

    2016-01-01

    Background: Coffee has been associated with modestly lower risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in meta-analyses; however, it is unclear whether these are causal associations. We tested first whether coffee intake is associated with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality...... observationally; second, whether genetic variations previously associated with caffeine intake are associated with coffee intake; and third, whether the genetic variations are associated with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Methods: First, we used multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard......- and age adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models to examine genetic associations with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in 112 509 Danes. Finally, we used sex and age-adjusted logistic regression models to examine genetic associations with ischaemic heart disease including...

  18. Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Tomohiro; Nomura, Shuhei; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Leppold, Claire; Gilmour, Stuart; Ochi, Sae; Ozaki, Akihiko; Shimada, Yuki; Yamamoto, Kana; Inoue, Manami; Kato, Shigeaki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kami, Masahiro

    2017-10-01

    Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  19. Subclinical Hyperthyroidism and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Tinh-Hai; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Bauer, Douglas C.; den Elzen, Wendy P. J.; Cappola, Anne R.; Balmer, Philippe; Iervasi, Giorgio; Åsvold, Bjørn O.; Sgarbi, José A.; Völzke, Henry; Gencer, Bariş; Maciel, Rui M. B.; Molinaro, Sabrina; Bremner, Alexandra; Luben, Robert N.; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Cornuz, Jacques; Newman, Anne B.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.; Franklyn, Jayne A.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Walsh, John P.; Rodondi, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Background Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting. We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. Methods Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. Results Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age-and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06–1.46), CHD mortality (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02–1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.99–1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16–2.43). Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% for AF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L (for both, P value for trend, ≤.03). Conclusion Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest

  20. Is there a 'Scottish effect' for mortality? Prospective observational study of census linkage studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popham, Frank; Boyle, Paul J

    2011-09-01

    Scotland's mortality rate is higher than England and Wales' and this difference cannot be explained by differences in area-level socio-economic deprivation. However, studies of this 'Scottish effect' have not adjusted for individual-level measures of socio-economic position nor accounted for country of birth; important as Scottish born living in England and Wales also have high mortality risk. Data sets (1991-2001 and 2001-2007) were obtained from the Scottish Longitudinal Study and the Office for National Statistics England and Wales Longitudinal Study that both link census records to subsequent mortality. Analysis was limited to those aged 35-74 at baseline with people followed to emigration, death or end of follow-up. Those born in Scotland living in either England and Wales or Scotland had a higher mortality rate than the English born living in England and Wales that was not fully attenuated by adjustment for car access and housing tenure. Adjusting for household-level differences in socio-economic deprivation does not fully explain the Scottish excess mortality that is seen for those born in Scotland whether living in England and Wales or Scotland. Taking a life course approach may reveal the cause of the 'Scottish effect'.

  1. Directly observed therapy reduces tuberculosis-specific mortality: a population-based follow-up study in Taipei, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Yung-Feng; Yen, Muh-Yong; Lin, Yi-Ping; Shih, Hsiu-Chen; Li, Lan-Huei; Chou, Pesus; Deng, Chung-Yeh

    2013-01-01

    To determine the effect of directly observed therapy (DOT) on tuberculosis-specific mortality and non-TB-specific mortality and identify prognostic factors associated with mortality among adults with culture-positive pulmonary TB (PTB). All adult Taiwanese with PTB in Taipei, Taiwan were included in a retrospective cohort study in 2006-2010. Backward stepwise multinomial logistic regression was used to identify risk factors associated with each mortality outcome. Mean age of the 3,487 patients was 64.2 years and 70.4% were male. Among 2471 patients on DOT, 4.2% (105) died of TB-specific causes and 15.4% (381) died of non-TB-specific causes. Among 1016 patients on SAT, 4.4% (45) died of TB-specific causes and 11.8% (120) died of non-TB-specific causes. , After adjustment for potential confounders, the odds ratio for TB-specific mortality was 0.45 (95% CI: 0.30-0.69) among patients treated with DOT as compared with those on self-administered treatment. Independent predictors of TB-specific and non-TB-specific mortality included older age (ie, 65-79 and ≥80 years vs. 18-49 years), being unemployed, a positive sputum smear for acid-fast bacilli, and TB notification from a general ward or intensive care unit (reference: outpatient services). Male sex, end-stage renal disease requiring dialysis, malignancy, and pleural effusion on chest radiography were associated with increased risk of non-TB-specific mortality, while presence of lung cavities on chest radiography was associated with lower risk. DOT reduced TB-specific mortality by 55% among patients with PTB, after controlling for confounders. DOT should be given to all TB patients to further reduce TB-specific mortality.

  2. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    outcomes. For our sensitivity analysis, we included PM2.5 and O3 in our model. Results During the cold season, CVD-related ED visits and hospitalizations increased, while mortality decreased, with increasing mean temperature on the same day and lagged days. Extremely cold temperature was associated with a small increase of same day in-hospital mortality though generally cold temperatures did not appear to be associated with higher mortality. The opposite was observed in the warm season as ED visits and hospitalizations decreased, and mortality increased, with increasing mean temperature on the same day and on lagged days. Our sensitivity analysis, in which we controlled for PM2.5 and O3, demonstrated little effect of these air pollutants on the relationship between temperature and CVD outcomes. Conclusions Our results suggest a decline in risk of a CVD-related ED visit and hospitalization during extreme temperatures on the same day and on recent day lags for both cold and warm seasons. In contrast, our findings for mortality indicate an increase in risk of CVD-related deaths during hot temperatures. No mortality effect was observed during cold temperatures. The effects of extreme temperatures on CVD-related morbidity may be explained by behavioral patterns, as people are more likely to stay indoors on the coldest and hottest days.

  3. A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

  4. Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

    2016-01-01

    Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Association of body temperature and antipyretic treatments with mortality of critically ill patients with and without sepsis: multi-centered prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Fever is frequently observed in critically ill patients. An independent association of fever with increased mortality has been observed in non-neurological critically ill patients with mixed febrile etiology. The association of fever and antipyretics with mortality, however, may be different between infective and non-infective illness. Methods We designed a prospective observational study to investigate the independent association of fever and the use of antipyretic treatments with mortality in critically ill patients with and without sepsis. We included 1,425 consecutive adult critically ill patients (without neurological injury) requiring > 48 hours intensive care admitted in 25 ICUs. We recorded four-hourly body temperature and all antipyretic treatments until ICU discharge or 28 days after ICU admission, whichever occurred first. For septic and non-septic patients, we separately assessed the association of maximum body temperature during ICU stay (MAXICU) and the use of antipyretic treatments with 28-day mortality. Results We recorded body temperature 63,441 times. Antipyretic treatment was given 4,863 times to 737 patients (51.7%). We found that treatment with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or acetaminophen independently increased 28-day mortality for septic patients (adjusted odds ratio: NSAIDs: 2.61, P = 0.028, acetaminophen: 2.05, P = 0.01), but not for non-septic patients (adjusted odds ratio: NSAIDs: 0.22, P = 0.15, acetaminophen: 0.58, P = 0.63). Application of physical cooling did not associate with mortality in either group. Relative to the reference range (MAXICU 36.5°C to 37.4°C), MAXICU ≥ 39.5°C increased risk of 28-day mortality in septic patients (adjusted odds ratio 8.14, P = 0.01), but not in non-septic patients (adjusted odds ratio 0.47, P = 0.11). Conclusions In non-septic patients, high fever (≥ 39.5°C) independently associated with mortality, without association of administration of NSAIDs or

  6. Favorable Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage: Trends in Mortality and Plan Exits Among Nursing Home Beneficiaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Elizabeth M.; Trivedi, Amal N.; Mor, Vincent; Jung, Hye-Young; Rahman, Momotazur

    2016-01-01

    The 2003 Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans and instituted a new risk-adjustment payment model to reduce plans' incentives to enroll healthier Medicare beneficiaries and avoid those with higher costs. Whether the MMA reduced risk selection remains debatable. This study uses mortality differences, nursing home utilization, and switch rates to assess whether the MMA successfully decreased risk selection from 2000 to 2012. We found no decrease in the mortality difference or adjusted difference in nursing home use between plan beneficiaries pre- and post the MMA. Among beneficiaries with nursing home use, disenrollment from Medicare Advantage plans declined from 20% to 12%, but it remained 6 times higher than the switch rate from traditional Medicare to Medicare Advantage. These findings suggest that the MMA was not associated with reductions in favorable risk selection, as measured by mortality, nursing home use, and switch rates. PMID:27516452

  7. Competing Risk Approach (CRA) for Estimation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY's) for Female Breast Cancer in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunnavil, Radhika; Thirthahalli, Chethana; Nooyi, Shalini Chandrashekar; Shivaraj, N S; Murthy, Nandagudi Srinivasa

    2015-10-01

    Competing Risk Approach (CRA) has been used to compute burden of disease in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) based on a life table for an initially disease-free cohort over time. To compute Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality, Years of life lost due to Disability (YLD), DALYs and loss in expectation of life (LEL) using competing risk approach for female breast cancer patients for the year 2008 in India. The published data on breast cancer by age & sex, incidence & mortality for the year 2006-2008 relating to six population based cancer registries (PBCR) under Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), general mortality rates of 2007 in India, published in national health profile 2010; based on Sample Registration System (SRS) were utilized for computations. Three life tables were constructed by applying attrition of factors: (i) risk of death from all causes ('a'; where a is the general death rate); (ii) risk of incidence and that of death from causes other than breast cancer ('b-a+c'; where 'b' is the incidence of breast cancer and 'c' is the mortality of breast cancer); and (iii) risk of death from all other causes after excluding cancer mortality ('a-c'). Taking the differences in Total Person Years Lived (TPYL), YLD and YLL were derived along with LEL. CRA revealed that the DALYs were 40209 per 100,000 females in the life time of 0-70+ years with a LEL of 0.11 years per person. Percentage of YLL to DALYs was 28.20% in the cohort. The method of calculation of DALYs based on the CRA is simple and this will help to identify the burden of diseases using minimal information in terms of YLL, YLD, DALYs and LEL.

  8. Dental Status and Compression of Life Expectancy with Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuyama, Y; Aida, J; Watt, R G; Tsuboya, T; Koyama, S; Sato, Y; Kondo, K; Osaka, K

    2017-08-01

    This study examined whether the number of teeth contributes to the compression of morbidity, measured as a shortening of life expectancy with disability, an extension of healthy life expectancy, and overall life expectancy. A prospective cohort study was conducted. A self-reported baseline survey was given to 126,438 community-dwelling older people aged ≥65 y in Japan in 2010, and 85,161 (67.4%) responded. The onset of functional disability and all-cause mortality were followed up for 1,374 d (follow-up rate = 96.1%). A sex-stratified illness-death model was applied to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for 3 health transitions (healthy to dead, healthy to disabled, and disabled to dead). Absolute differences in life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and life expectancy with disability according to the number of teeth were also estimated. Age, denture use, socioeconomic status, health status, and health behavior were adjusted. Compared with the edentulous participants, participants with ≥20 teeth had lower risks of transitioning from healthy to dead (adjusted HR, 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50-0.68] for men and 0.70 [95% CI, 0.57-0.85] for women) and from healthy to disabled (adjusted HR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.44-0.61] for men and 0.58 [95% CI, 0.49-0.68] for women). They also transitioned from disabled to dead earlier (adjusted HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.99-1.60] for men and 2.42 [95% CI, 1.72-3.38] for women). Among the participants aged ≥85 y, those with ≥20 teeth had a longer life expectancy (men: +57 d; women: +15 d) and healthy life expectancy (men: +92 d; women: +70 d) and a shorter life expectancy with disability (men: -35 d; women: -55 d) compared with the edentulous participants. Similar associations were observed among the younger participants and those with 1 to 9 or 10 to 19 teeth. The presence of remaining teeth was associated with a significant compression of morbidity: older Japanese adults' life expectancy with disability was

  9. Age-distribution, risk factors and mortality in smokers and non-smokers with acute myocardial infarction: a review. TRACE study group. Danish Trandolapril Cardiac Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottesen, M M; Jørgensen, S; Kjøller, E

    1999-01-01

    Smoking is a risk factor for acute myocardial infarction; paradoxically, many studies have shown a lower post-infarct mortality among smokers. There are some important differences between smokers and non-smokers, which might explain the observed difference in mortality: smokers have less...... multivessel disease and atherosclerosis but are more thrombogenic; thrombolytic therapy seems to be more effective among smokers; smoking might result in an increased out-of-hospital mortality rate, by being more arrhythmogenic; and smokers are on average a decade younger than non-smokers at the time...... of infarction, and have less concomitant disease. Adjusting for these differences in regression analyses shows that smoking is not an independent risk factor for mortality after acute myocardial infarction. The difference in age and risk factors are responsible for the lower mortality among smokers....

  10. BMI and Lifetime Changes in BMI and Cancer Mortality Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghizadeh, Niloofar; Boezen, H. Marike; Schouten, Jan P.; Schröder, Carolien P.; de Vries, E. G. Elisabeth; Vonk, Judith M.

    2015-01-01

    Body Mass Index (BMI) is known to be associated with cancer mortality, but little is known about the link between lifetime changes in BMI and cancer mortality in both males and females. We studied the association of BMI measurements (at baseline, highest and lowest BMI during the study-period) and lifetime changes in BMI (calculated over different time periods (i.e. short time period: annual change in BMI between successive surveys, long time period: annual change in BMI over the entire study period) with mortality from any cancer, and lung, colorectal, prostate and breast cancer in a large cohort study (n=8,645. Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen, 1965-1990) with a follow-up on mortality status on December 31st 2008. We used multivariate Cox regression models with adjustments for age, smoking, sex, and place of residence. Being overweight at baseline was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer mortality (hazard ratio (HR) =2.22; 95% CI 1.19-4.17). Obesity at baseline was associated with a higher risk of any cancer mortality [all subjects (1.23 (1.01-1.50)), and females (1.40 (1.07-1.84))]. Chronically obese females (females who were obese during the entire study-period) had a higher risk of mortality from any cancer (2.16 (1.47-3.18), lung (3.22 (1.06-9.76)), colorectal (4.32 (1.53-12.20)), and breast cancer (2.52 (1.15-5.54)). We found no significant association between long-term annual change in BMI and cancer mortality risk. Both short-term annual increase and decrease in BMI were associated with a lower mortality risk from any cancer [all subjects: (0.67 (0.47-0.94)) and (0.73 (0.55-0.97)), respectively]. In conclusion, a higher BMI is associated with a higher cancer mortality risk. This study is the first to show that short-term annual changes in BMI were associated with lower mortality from any type of cancer. PMID:25881129

  11. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  12. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing [Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut (United States); Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J. [Prostate Cancer Foundation of Chicago, Westmont, Illinois (United States); Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A. [21st Century Oncology, Inc, Fort Myers, Florida (United States); D' Amico, Anthony V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

  13. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, Brent S.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.; Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A.; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

  14. Mortality risk in a nationwide cohort of individuals with tic disorders and with tourette syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, Sandra M; Dalsgaard, Søren; Mortensen, Preben B

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated mortality risk in individuals with tic disorders. METHODS: We thus measured the risk of premature death in individuals with tic disorders and with Tourette syndrome in a prospective cohort study with 80 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated...... mortality rate ratios and adjusted for calendar year, age, sex, urbanicity, maternal and paternal age, and psychiatric disorders to compare individuals with and without tic disorders. RESULTS: The risk of premature death was higher among individuals with tic disorders (mortality rate ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.......49-2.66) and with Tourette syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11-2.28) compared with controls. After the exclusion of individuals with comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and substance abuse, tic disorder remained associated with increased mortality risk (mortality...

  15. A high dietary glycemic index increases total mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itandehui Castro-Quezada

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI and glycemic load (GL are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures. RESULTS: We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths. As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15-4.04; P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk.

  16. Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Body mass index, exercise capacity, and mortality risk in male veterans with hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Kheirbek, Raya; Korshak, Lauren; Manolis, Athanasios; Pittaras, Andreas; Tsioufis, Costas; Papademetriou, Vasilios; Fletcher, Ross; Kokkinos, Peter

    2012-04-01

    Overweight and obesity are associated with increased risk of chronic diseases and mortality. Exercise capacity is inversely associated with mortality risk. However, little is known on the interaction between fitness, fatness, and mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. Thus, we assessed the interaction between exercise capacity, fatness, and all-cause mortality in hypertensive males. A graded exercise test was performed in 4,183 hypertensive veterans (mean age ± s.d.; 63.3 ± 10.5 years) at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Washington, DC. We defined three body weight categories based on body mass index (BMI): normal weight (BMI 7.5 METs). During a median follow-up period of 7.2 years, there were 1,000 deaths. The association between exercise capacity and mortality risk was strong, inverse, and graded. For each 1-MET increase in exercise capacity the adjusted risk was 20% for normal weight, 12% for overweight, and 25% for obese (P exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive males regardless of BMI. The risk for overweight and obese but fit individuals was significantly lower when compared to normal weight but unfit. These findings suggest that in older hypertensive men, it may be healthier to be fit regardless of standard BMI category than unfit and normal weight.

  18. Fasting insulin, insulin resistance, and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohong; Li, Jun; Zheng, Shuiping; Luo, Qiuyun; Zhou, Chunmei; Wang, Chaoyang

    2017-10-31

    Studies on elevated fasting insulin or insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular or all-cause mortality risk in non-diabetic individuals have yielded conflicting results. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association of elevated fasting insulin levels or IR as defined by homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults. We searched for relevant studies in PubMed and Emabse databases until November 2016. Only prospective observational studies investigating the association of elevated fasting insulin levels or HOMA-IR with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality risk in non-diabetic adults were included. Risk ratio (RR) with its 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was pooled for the highest compared with the lowest category of fasting insulin levels or HOMA-IR. Seven articles involving 26976 non-diabetic adults were included. The pooled, adjusted RR of all-cause mortality comparing the highest with the lowest category was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00-1.27; P =0.058) for fasting insulin levels and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.11-1.62; P =0.002) for HOMA-IR, respectively. When comparing the highest with the lowest category, the pooled adjusted RR of cardiovascular mortality was 2.11 (95% CI: 1.01-4.41; P =0.048) for HOMA-IR in two studies and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.49-3.96; P =0.526) for fasting insulin levels in one study. IR as measured by HOMA-IR but not fasting insulin appears to be independently associated with greater risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults. However, the association of fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with cardiovascular mortality may be unreliable due to the small number of articles included. © 2017 The Author(s).

  19. National Comparison of Hospital Performances in Lung Cancer Surgery: The Role Of Casemix Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Naomi; Hoeijmakers, Fieke; van der Willik, Esmee M; Heineman, David J; Braun, Jerry; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Schreurs, Wilhelmina H; Wouters, Michel W J M

    2018-04-03

    When comparing hospitals on outcome indicators, proper adjustment for casemix (a combination of patient- and disease characteristics) is indispensable. This study examines the need for casemix adjustment in evaluating hospital outcomes for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) surgery. Data from the Dutch Lung Cancer Audit for Surgery was used to validate factors associated with postoperative 30-day mortality and complicated course with multivariable logistic regression models. Between-hospital variation in casemix was studied by calculating medians and interquartile ranges for separate factors on hospital level and the 'expected' outcomes per hospital as a composite measure. 8040 patients, distributed over 51 Dutch hospitals were included for analysis. Mean observed postoperative mortality and complicated course were 2.2% and 13.6% respectively. Age, ASA-classification, ECOG performance score, lung function, extent of resection, tumor stage and postoperative histopathology were individual significant predictors for both outcomes of postoperative mortality and complicated course. A considerable variation of these casemix factors between hospital-populations was observed, with the expected mortality and complicated course per hospital ranging from 1.4 to 3.2% and 11.5 to 17.1%. The between-hospital variation in casemix of patients undergoing surgery for NSCLC emphasizes the importance of proper adjustment when comparing hospitals on outcome indicators. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Variability in the measurement of hospital-wide mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Wolf, Robert E; Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kirle, Leslie; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2010-12-23

    Several countries use hospital-wide mortality rates to evaluate the quality of hospital care, although the usefulness of this metric has been questioned. Massachusetts policymakers recently requested an assessment of methods to calculate this aggregate mortality metric for use as a measure of hospital quality. The Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy provided four vendors with identical information on 2,528,624 discharges from Massachusetts acute care hospitals from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2007. Vendors applied their risk-adjustment algorithms and provided predicted probabilities of in-hospital death for each discharge and for hospital-level observed and expected mortality rates. We compared the numbers and characteristics of discharges and hospitals included by each of the four methods. We also compared hospitals' standardized mortality ratios and classification of hospitals with mortality rates that were higher or lower than expected, according to each method. The proportions of discharges that were included by each method ranged from 28% to 95%, and the severity of patients' diagnoses varied widely. Because of their discharge-selection criteria, two methods calculated in-hospital mortality rates (4.0% and 5.9%) that were twice the state average (2.1%). Pairwise associations (Pearson correlation coefficients) of discharge-level predicted mortality probabilities ranged from 0.46 to 0.70. Hospital-performance categorizations varied substantially and were sometimes completely discordant. In 2006, a total of 12 of 28 hospitals that had higher-than-expected hospital-wide mortality when classified by one method had lower-than-expected mortality when classified by one or more of the other methods. Four common methods for calculating hospital-wide mortality produced substantially different results. This may have resulted from a lack of standardized national eligibility and exclusion criteria, different statistical methods, or

  1. Volunteering as a predictor of all-cause mortality: what aspects of volunteering really matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayalon, Liat

    2008-10-01

    This study evaluates the predictive effects of different aspects of volunteering (e.g. volunteering status, number of hours, number of years, and type of volunteering activity) on all-cause mortality. A seven-year follow-up dataset of a nationally representative sample of Israelis, 60 years and older was used. As expected, volunteering was associated with a reduced mortality risk even after adjusting for age, gender, education, baseline mental health and physical health, activity level, and social engagement. Those who volunteered for 10 to 14 years had a reduced mortality risk relative to non-volunteers. In addition, those who volunteered privately, not as part of an official organization, also had a reduced mortality risk compared to non-volunteers. The number of hours of volunteering was not a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in the fully adjusted model. In additional sensitivity analyses limited to those who volunteered, none of the various aspects of volunteering was associated with a reduced mortality risk. Results suggest that not all aspects of volunteering have the same predictive value and that the protective effects of length of volunteering time and type of volunteering are particularly important. However, whether or not volunteering is the most consistent predictor of mortality and whether once a person volunteers the various aspects of volunteering are no longer associated with mortality risk.

  2. Case‐mix adjustment in non‐randomised observational evaluations: the constant risk fallacy

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholl, Jon

    2007-01-01

    Observational studies comparing groups or populations to evaluate services or interventions usually require case‐mix adjustment to account for imbalances between the groups being compared. Simulation studies have, however, shown that case‐mix adjustment can make any bias worse.

  3. Benchmarking statewide trauma mortality using Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's patient safety indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Darwin; McKenney, Mark; Norwood, Scott; Kurek, Stanley; Kimbrell, Brian; Liu, Huazhi; Ziglar, Michele; Hurst, James

    2015-09-01

    Improving clinical outcomes of trauma patients is a challenging problem at a statewide level, particularly if data from the state's registry are not publicly available. Promotion of optimal care throughout the state is not possible unless clinical benchmarks are available for comparison. Using publicly available administrative data from the State Department of Health and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) patient safety indicators (PSIs), we sought to create a statewide method for benchmarking trauma mortality and at the same time also identifying a pattern of unique complications that have an independent influence on mortality. Data for this study were obtained from State of Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Adult trauma patients were identified as having International Classification of Disease ninth edition codes defined by the state. Multivariate logistic regression was used to create a predictive inpatient expected mortality model. The expected value of PSIs was created using the multivariate model and their beta coefficients provided by the AHRQ. Case-mix adjusted mortality results were reported as observed to expected (O/E) ratios to examine mortality, PSIs, failure to prevent complications, and failure to rescue from death. There were 50,596 trauma patients evaluated during the study period. The overall fit of the expected mortality model was very strong at a c-statistic of 0.93. Twelve of 25 trauma centers had O/E ratios benchmarking method that screens at risk trauma centers in the state for higher than expected mortality. Stratifying mortality based on failure to prevent PSIs may identify areas of needed improvement at a statewide level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Blood donation and blood donor mortality after adjustment for a healthy donor effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ullum, Henrik; Rostgaard, Klaus; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have repeatedly demonstrated that blood donors experience lower mortality than the general population. While this may suggest a beneficial effect of blood donation, it may also reflect the selection of healthy persons into the donor population. To overcome this bias, we...... investigated the relation between blood donation frequency and mortality within a large cohort of blood donors. In addition, our analyses also took into consideration the effects of presumed health differences linked to donation behavior. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using the Scandinavian Donation...... and mortality. The magnitude of the association was reduced after adjustment for an estimate of self-selection in the donor population. Our observations indicate that repeated blood donation is not associated with premature death, but cannot be interpreted as conclusive evidence of a beneficial health effect....

  5. Long-term mortality risk in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoogwegt, Madelein T; Theuns, Dominic A M J; Pedersen, Susanne S.

    2014-01-01

    .9)). The impact of heart rate and QRS duration on time to all-cause mortality was separately assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, adjusting for clinical factors and symptoms of depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Mean (SD) heart rate was 68.0 ± 13.3 bpm and mean QRS duration was 130.9 ± 36.9 ms....... Heart rate of ≥80 bpm was associated with increased risk of mortality (HR=1.86; 95% CI=1.15-3.00; p=.011) in unadjusted analysis. In adjusted analyses, this relationship remained significant both with depression (HR=1.86, 95% CI=1.12-3.09; p=.017) and anxiety (HR=1.82, 95% CI=1.10-3.03; p=.021...

  6. Meta-analysis of breast cancer mortality benefit and overdiagnosis adjusted for adherence: improving information on the effects of attending screening mammography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacklyn, Gemma; Glasziou, Paul; Macaskill, Petra; Barratt, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Women require information about the impact of regularly attending screening mammography on breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis to make informed decisions. To provide this information we aimed to meta-analyse randomised controlled trials adjusted for adherence to the trial protocol. Methods: Nine screening mammography trials used in the Independent UK Breast Screening Report were selected. Extending an existing approach to adjust intention-to-treat (ITT) estimates for less than 100% adherence rates, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. This produced a combined deattenuated prevented fraction and a combined deattenuated percentage risk of overdiagnosis. Results: In women aged 39–75 years invited to screen, the prevented fraction of breast cancer mortality at 13-year follow-up was 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.28) and it increased to 0.30 (95% CI 0.18–0.42) with deattenuation. In women aged 40–69 years invited to screen, the ITT percentage risk of overdiagnosis during the screening period was 19.0% (95% CI 15.2–22.7%), deattenuation increased this to 29.7% (95% CI 17.8–41.5%). Conclusions: Adjustment for nonadherence increased the size of the mortality benefit and risk of overdiagnosis by up to 50%. These estimates are more appropriate when developing quantitative information to support individual decisions about attending screening mammography. PMID:27124337

  7. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  8. Illness Perceptions and Mortality in Patients With Gout: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serlachius, Anna; Gamble, Greg; House, Meaghan; Vincent, Zoe L; Knight, Julie; Horne, Anne; Taylor, William J; Petrie, Keith J; Dalbeth, Nicola

    2017-09-01

    To examine whether illness perceptions independently predict mortality in early-onset gout. Between December 2006 and January 2014, a total of 295 participants with early-onset gout (gout. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for predictors of disease severity and mortality in gout (number of tophi, serum urate level, and frequency of flares), consequence beliefs, identity beliefs, concern beliefs, and emotional response to gout were associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratios [HRs] 1.29, 1.15, 1.18, and 1.19, respectively; P gout and severity of symptoms, as well as concerns about gout and the emotional response to gout, were independently associated with all-cause mortality. Illness perceptions are important and potentially modifiable risk factors to target in future interventions. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  9. GT-repeat polymorphism in the heme oxygenase-1 gene promoter is associated with cardiovascular mortality risk in an arsenic-exposed population in northeastern Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Meei-Maan; Chiou, Hung-Yi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Hsieh, Yi-Chen; Lien, Li-Ming; Lee, Te-Chang; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2010-01-01

    Inorganic arsenic has been associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease and mortality in humans. A functional GT-repeat polymorphism in the heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) gene promoter is inversely correlated with the development of coronary artery disease and restenosis after clinical angioplasty. The relationship of HO-1 genotype with arsenic-associated cardiovascular disease has not been studied. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the HO-1 GT-repeat polymorphism and cardiovascular mortality in an arsenic-exposed population. A total of 504 study participants were followed up for a median of 10.7 years for occurrence of cardiovascular deaths (coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease). Cardiovascular risk factors and DNA samples for determination of HO-1 GT repeats were obtained at recruitment. GT repeats variants were grouped into the S (< 27 repeats) or L allele (≥ 27 repeats). Relative mortality risk was estimated using Cox regression analysis, adjusted for competing risk of cancer and other causes. For the L/L, L/S, and S/S genotype groups, the crude mortalities for cardiovascular disease were 8.42, 3.10, and 2.85 cases/1000 person-years, respectively. After adjusting for conventional cardiovascular risk factors and competing risk of cancer and other causes, carriers with class S allele (L/S or S/S genotypes) had a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-carriers (L/L genotype) [OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16-0.90]. In contrast, no significant association was observed between HO-1 genotype and cancer mortality or mortality from other causes. Shorter (GT)n repeats in the HO-1 gene promoter may confer protective effects against cardiovascular mortality related to arsenic exposure.

  10. Inclusion of Functional Status Measures in the Risk Adjustment of 30-Day Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Suzanne V; O'Brien, Sean M; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Cohen, David J; Stebbins, Amanda; Brennan, J Matthew; Shahian, David M; Grover, Fred L; Holmes, David R; Thourani, Vinod H; Peterson, Eric D; Edwards, Fred H

    2018-03-26

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and

  11. Mortality risk in European children with end-stage renal disease on dialysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chesnaye, Nicholas C.; Schaefer, Franz; Groothoff, Jaap W.

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to describe survival in European pediatric dialysis patients and compare the differential mortality risk between patients starting on hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD). Data for 6473 patients under 19 years of age or younger were extracted from the European Society of Pediat...... dialysis (HD/PD adjusted HR 6.55, 95% CI 2.35–18.28, PSM HR 2.93, 95% CI 1.04–8.23). Because unmeasured case-mix differences and selection bias may explain the higher mortality risk in the HD population, these results should be interpreted with caution....

  12. Impact of gender on the risk of AIDS-defining illnesses and mortality in Danish HIV-1-infected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsteinsson, Kristina; Ladelund, Steen; Jensen-Fangel, Søren

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background: Gender differences in the risk of AIDS-defining illness (ADI) and mortality have been reported in the HIV-1-infected (HIV-positive) population, with conflicting findings. We aimed to assess the impact of gender on the risk of ADI and death in HIV-positive patients infected...... sexually. Methods: This was a population-based, nationwide cohort study of incident Danish HIV-positive individuals infected by sexual contact. Outcomes were progression to AIDS and death. We used Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression analyses to calculate the risk of progression to AIDS...... diagnosis MSM had a lower prevalence of AIDS compared to MSW. Women and MSW presented more often with tuberculosis and less often with AIDS-defining cancers compared to MSM. In the adjusted analyses we observed no differences in progression to AIDS. In the adjusted analyses of risk of death, there were...

  13. Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamers, L M

    Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

  14. Ants avoid superinfections by performing risk-adjusted sanitary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Matthias; Pull, Christopher D; Metzler, Sina; Seif, Katharina; Naderlinger, Elisabeth; Grasse, Anna V; Cremer, Sylvia

    2018-03-13

    Being cared for when sick is a benefit of sociality that can reduce disease and improve survival of group members. However, individuals providing care risk contracting infectious diseases themselves. If they contract a low pathogen dose, they may develop low-level infections that do not cause disease but still affect host immunity by either decreasing or increasing the host's vulnerability to subsequent infections. Caring for contagious individuals can thus significantly alter the future disease susceptibility of caregivers. Using ants and their fungal pathogens as a model system, we tested if the altered disease susceptibility of experienced caregivers, in turn, affects their expression of sanitary care behavior. We found that low-level infections contracted during sanitary care had protective or neutral effects on secondary exposure to the same (homologous) pathogen but consistently caused high mortality on superinfection with a different (heterologous) pathogen. In response to this risk, the ants selectively adjusted the expression of their sanitary care. Specifically, the ants performed less grooming and more antimicrobial disinfection when caring for nestmates contaminated with heterologous pathogens compared with homologous ones. By modulating the components of sanitary care in this way the ants acquired less infectious particles of the heterologous pathogens, resulting in reduced superinfection. The performance of risk-adjusted sanitary care reveals the remarkable capacity of ants to react to changes in their disease susceptibility, according to their own infection history and to flexibly adjust collective care to individual risk.

  15. Infections and risk-adjusted length of stay and hospital mortality in Polish Neonatology Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Różańska

    2015-06-01

    Conclusions: The general condition of VLBW infants statistically increase both their risk of mortality and LOS; this is in contrast to the presence of infection, which significantly prolonged LOS only.

  16. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  17. Trajectories of body mass index among Canadian seniors and associated mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meng; Yi, Yanqing; Roebothan, Barbara; Colbourne, Jennifer; Maddalena, Victor; Sun, Guang; Wang, Peizhong Peter

    2017-12-04

    This study aims to characterize the heterogeneity in BMI trajectories and evaluate how different BMI trajectories predict mortality risk in Canadian seniors. Data came from the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS, 1994-2011) and 1480 individuals aged 65-79 years with at least four BMI records were included in this study. Group-based trajectory model was used to identify distinct subgroups of longitudinal trajectories of BMI measured over 19 years for men and women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between BMI trajectories and mortality risks. Distinct trajectory patterns were found for men and women: 'Normal Weight-Down'(N-D), 'Overweight-Normal weight' (OV-N), 'Obese I-Down' (OB I-D), and 'Obese II- Down' (OB II-D) for women; and 'Normal Weight-Down' (N-D), 'Overweight-Normal weight' (OV-N), 'Overweight-Stable' (OV-S), and 'Obese-Stable' (OB-S) for men. Comparing with OV-N, men in the OV-S group had the lowest mortality risk followed by the N-D (HR = 1.66) and OB-S (HR = 1.98) groups, after adjusting for covariates. Compared with OV-N, women in the OB II-D group with three or more chronic health conditions had higher mortality risk (HR = 1.61); however, women in OB II-D had lower risk (HR = 0.56) if they had less than three conditions. The course of BMI over time in Canadian seniors appears to follow one of four different patterns depending on gender. The findings suggest that men who were overweight at age 65 and lost weight over time had the lowest mortality risk. Interestingly, obese women with decreasing BMI have different mortality risks, depending on their chronic health conditions. The findings provide new insights concerning the associations between BMI and mortality risk.

  18. 14-Year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure in a general population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie Bérard

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Guidelines for management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus recommend the use of hypoglycaemic drugs when lifestyle interventions remain insufficient for glycaemic control. Recent trials have provided worrying safety data on certain hypoglycaemic drugs. The aim of this study was to assess 14-year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure at baseline, in a general population. METHODS: Our analysis was based on the observational Third French MONICA survey on cardiovascular risk factors (1995-1997. Vital status was obtained 14 years after inclusion, and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on multivariable Cox modelling. RESULTS: There were 3336 participants and 248 deaths over the 14-year period. At baseline, there were 3162 (95% non-diabetic, 46 (1% untreated type 2 diabetic and 128 (4% type 2 diabetic subjects with hypoglycaemic drug treatment (metformin alone (31%, sulfonylureas alone or in combination (49%, insulin alone or in combination (10%, or other treatments (9%. After adjustment for duration of diabetes, history of diabetes complications, area of residence (centre, age, gender, educational level, alcohol consumption, smoking, blood pressure, LDL and HDL cholesterol, which all were significant and independent determinants of mortality, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 3.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.87-11.9] for untreated diabetic subjects, 2.28 [0.98-5.26] for diabetics treated with metformin alone, 1.70 [0.92-3.16] for diabetics with sulfonylureas and 4.92 [1.70-14.3] for diabetic with insulin versus non-diabetic subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the conclusion that until more evidence is provided from randomized trials, a prudent approach should be to restrain use of insulin to situations in which combinations of non-insulin agents have failed to appropriately achieve glycemic control, as it is recommended in the current guidelines for the management of

  19. The promise of prevention: the effects of four preventable risk factors on national life expectancy and life expectancy disparities by race and county in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goodarz Danaei

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available There has been substantial research on psychosocial and health care determinants of health disparities in the United States (US but less on the role of modifiable risk factors. We estimated the effects of smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and adiposity on national life expectancy and on disparities in life expectancy and disease-specific mortality among eight subgroups of the US population (the "Eight Americas" defined on the basis of race and the location and socioeconomic characteristics of county of residence, in 2005.We combined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate unbiased risk factor levels for the Eight Americas. We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate age-sex-disease-specific number of deaths in 2005. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain risk factor effect sizes for disease-specific mortality. We used epidemiologic methods for multiple risk factors to estimate the effects of current exposure to these risk factors on death rates, and life table methods to estimate effects on life expectancy. Asians had the lowest mean body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking; whites had the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP. SBP was highest in blacks, especially in the rural South--5-7 mmHg higher than whites. The other three risk factors were highest in Western Native Americans, Southern low-income rural blacks, and/or low-income whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Nationally, these four risk factors reduced life expectancy at birth in 2005 by an estimated 4.9 y in men and 4.1 y in women. Life expectancy effects were smallest in Asians (M, 4.1 y; F, 3.6 y and largest in Southern rural blacks (M, 6.7 y; F, 5.7 y. Standard deviation of life expectancies in the Eight Americas would decline by 0.50 y (18% in men and 0.45 y (21% in women if these risks

  20. Survived infancy but still vulnerable: spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for child mortality in the Agincourt rural sub-district, South Africa, 1992-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benn Sartorius

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Targeting of health interventions to poor children at highest risk of mortality are promising approaches for enhancing equity. Methods have emerged to accurately quantify excess risk and identify space-time disparities. This provides useful and detailed information for guiding policy. A spatio-temporal analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with child (1-4 years mortality in the Agincourt sub-district, South Africa, to assess temporal changes in child mortality patterns within the study site between 1992 and 2007, and to produce all-cause and cause-specific mortality maps to identify high risk areas. Demographic, maternal, paternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to health care facility and socio-economic status were among the examined risk factors. The analysis was carried out by fitting a Bayesian discrete time Bernoulli survival geostatistical model using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Bayesian kriging was used to produce mortality risk maps. Significant temporal increase in child mortality was observed due to the HIV epidemic. A distinct spatial risk pattern was observed with higher risk areas being concentrated in poorer settlements on the eastern part of the study area, largely inhabited by former Mozambican refugees. The major risk factors for childhood mortality, following multivariate adjustment, were mother’s death (especially when due to HIV and tuberculosis, greater number of children under 5 years living in the same household and winter season. This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models for accurately quantifying risk factors and producing maps of child mortality risk in a health and demographic surveillance system. According to the space-time analysis, the southeast and upper central regions of the site appear to have the highest mortality risk. The results inform policies to address health inequalities in the Agincourt sub-district and to

  1. Modeled Urea Distribution Volume and Mortality in the HEMO Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Tom; Depner, Thomas A.; Levin, Nathan W.; Chertow, Glenn M.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives In the Hemodialysis (HEMO) Study, observed small decreases in achieved equilibrated Kt/Vurea were noncausally associated with markedly increased mortality. Here we examine the association of mortality with modeled volume (Vm), the denominator of equilibrated Kt/Vurea. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Parameters derived from modeled urea kinetics (including Vm) and blood pressure (BP) were obtained monthly in 1846 patients. Case mix–adjusted time-dependent Cox regressions were used to relate the relative mortality hazard at each time point to Vm and to the change in Vm over the preceding 6 months. Mixed effects models were used to relate Vm to changes in intradialytic systolic BP and to other factors at each follow-up visit. Results Mortality was associated with Vm and change in Vm over the preceding 6 months. The association between change in Vm and mortality was independent of vascular access complications. In contrast, mortality was inversely associated with V calculated from anthropometric measurements (Vant). In case mix–adjusted analysis using Vm as a time-dependent covariate, the association of mortality with Vm strengthened after statistical adjustment for Vant. After adjustment for Vant, higher Vm was associated with slightly smaller reductions in intradialytic systolic BP and with risk factors for mortality including recent hospitalization and reductions in serum albumin concentration and body weight. Conclusions An increase in Vm is a marker for illness and mortality risk in hemodialysis patients. PMID:21511841

  2. Mortality after acute myocardial infarction according to income and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jeppe Nørgaard; Rasmussen, Søren; Gislason, Gunnar H

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study how income and educational level influence mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective analysis using individual level linkage of registries in Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: All patients 30-74 years old hospitalised for the first time with AMI i...... that both educational level and income substantially and independently affect mortality after AMI, indicating that each indicator has specific effects on mortality and that these indicators are not interchangeable.......OBJECTIVE: To study how income and educational level influence mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective analysis using individual level linkage of registries in Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: All patients 30-74 years old hospitalised for the first time with AMI...... in Denmark in 1995-2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk (RR) of 30 day mortality and long term mortality (31 days until 31 December 2003) associated with income (adjusted for education) or educational level (adjusted for income) and further adjusted for sex, age, civil status, and comorbidity. RESULTS...

  3. Oral health as a risk factor for mortality in middle-aged men: the role of socioeconomic position and health behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbah, Wael; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Sheiham, Aubrey; Batty, G David; Batty, David

    2013-05-01

    There is evidence of an association between poor oral health and mortality. This association is usually attributed to inflammatory and nutrition pathways. However, the role of health behaviours and socioeconomic position has not been adequately examined. The aims of this study were to examine the association between oral health and premature death among middle-aged men and to test whether it was explained by socioeconomic position and behaviours. Data were from the Vietnam Experience Study, a prospective cohort study of Vietnam War-era (1965-1971), American male army personnel. The authors examined risk of cause-specific and all-cause mortality in relation to poor oral health in middle age, adjusting for age, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, IQ, behavioural factors and systemic conditions. Men with poor oral health experienced a higher risk of cause-specific and all-cause mortality. HRs for all-cause mortality were 2.94 (95% CI 2.11 to 4.08) among individuals with poor oral health and 3.98 (95% CI 2.43 to 6.49) among edentates compared with those with good oral health after adjusting for ethnicity and age. The association attenuated but remained significant after further adjustment for systemic conditions, socioeconomic position and behaviours. Socioeconomic and behavioural factors explained 52% and 44% of mortality risks attributed to poor oral health and being edentate, respectively. The findings suggest that oral health-mortality relation is partly due to measured covariates in the present study. Oral health appears to be a marker of socioeconomic and behavioural risk factors related to all-cause mortality.

  4. Mortality and life expectancy in homeless men and women in Rotterdam: 2001-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilma J Nusselder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Data on mortality among homeless people are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to describe mortality patterns within a cohort of homeless adults in Rotterdam (the Netherlands and to assess excess mortality as compared to the general population in that city. METHODS: Based on 10-year follow-up of homeless adults aged ≥ 20 years who visited services for homeless people in Rotterdam in 2001, and on vital statistics, we assessed the association of mortality with age, sex and type of service used (e.g. only day care, convalescence care, other within the homeless cohort, and also compared mortality between the homeless and general population using Poisson regression. Life tables and decomposition methods were used to examine differences in life expectancy. RESULTS: During follow-up, of the 2096 adult homeless 265 died. Among the homeless, at age 30 years no significant sex differences were found in overall mortality rates and life expectancy. Compared with the general Rotterdam population, mortality rates were 3.5 times higher in the homeless cohort. Excess mortality was larger in women (rate ratio [RR] RR 5.56, 95% CI 3.95-7.82 as compared to men (RR 3.31, 95% CI 2.91-3.77, and decreased with age (RR 7.67, 95% CI 6.87-8.56 for the age group 20-44 and RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.41-1.88 for the age group 60+ years. Life expectancy at age 30 years was 11.0 (95% CI 9.1-12.9 and 15.9 (95% CI 10.3-21.5 years lower for homeless men and women compared to men and women in the general population respectively. CONCLUSION: Homeless adults face excessive losses in life expectancy, with greatest disadvantages among homeless women and the younger age groups.

  5. Mortality pattern and life expectancy of Seventh-Day Adventists in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkel, J; de Waard, F

    1983-12-01

    The mortality pattern of Seventh-Day Adventists (SDAs) in the Netherlands was assessed during a ten-year study period, 1968-1977. Of 522 deceased SDAs the causes of death of 482 could be ascertained. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) for total mortality (SMR = 0,45), cancer (SMR = 0,50) and cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 0,41) as well as for various subgroups differed significantly from the total Dutch population. Mean age at death as well as life-expectation at baptism were significantly higher in SDAs, both in males and females, as compared with Dutch males and females. A health survey among a sample of the total SDA population and a group of 'friend' controls' was done in order to try to explain the differences in mortality pattern and life expectancy. It is concluded that evidence was found for the thesis that abstinence from cigarette smoking is the main factor explaining the low mortality from ischaemic heart diseases among SDAs, while presumably an appropriate (prudent) diet confers additional benefit for example on colon cancer mortality.

  6. Mortality of workers potentially exposed to organic and inorganic brominated chemicals, DBCP, TRIS, PBB, and DDT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, O; Brocker, W; Davis, H V; Nagle, G S

    1984-02-01

    A historical prospective mortality study was conducted on 3579 white male workers employed between 1935 and 1976 with potential exposures to brominated compounds including 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP), Tris (2,3-dibromopropyl) phosphate, polybrominated biphenyls (PBB), various organic and inorganic bromides, and DDT. Death certificates were obtained for 541 deaths (94% of all deaths). The mortality experience of the entire cohort and several subcohorts was compared with that of United States white men adjusted for age and calendar time. The comparison statistic was the commonly used standardised mortality ratio (SMR). Historical industrial hygiene data were not available, and the workers were classified by their work areas or departments in order to estimate their potential exposures. Overall mortality for the entire cohort and several subgroups was significantly lower than expected. For the entire cohort, significant mortality deficits were observed in diseases of the circulatory system, non-malignant respiratory disease, and diseases of the digestive system. On the other hand, mortality from diabetes mellitus was significantly raised for the cohort. No significant overall or cause-specific mortality excess was detected among employees potentially exposed to either TRIS or DDT. A significant mortality excess due to diseases of the circulatory system was observed among workers potentially exposed to DBCP. Mortality from testicular cancer was significantly higher than expected among those potentially exposed to other organic bromides. The common potential exposure of those who had died of testicular cancer was methyl bromide. Owing to the lack of accurate historical exposure information and the fact that many workers were potentially exposed to a multitude of chemicals, it is difficult to draw definitive statements on the causations of the observed mortality excesses.

  7. Nutrition deficiency increases the risk of stomach cancer mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Li Qing

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of the study is to determine whether exposure to malnutrition during early life is associated with increased risk of stomach cancer in later life. Methods The design protocol included analyzing the trend of gastric cancer mortality and nutrition and evaluating the association between nutrient deficiency in early life and the risk of gastric cancer by hierarchical age–period–birth cohort (APC analysis using general log-linear Poisson models and to compare the difference between birth cohorts who were exposed to the 1959–1961 Chinese famine and those who were not exposed to the famine. Data on stomach cancer mortality from 1970 to 2009 and the dietary patterns from 1955 to 1985 which included the 1959–1961 Chinese famine period in the Zhaoyuan County population were obtained. The nutrition information was collected 15 years prior to the mortality data as based on the latest reference of disease incubation. Results APC analysis revealed that severe nutrition deficiency during early life may increase the risk of stomach cancer. Compared with the 1960–1964 birth cohort, the risk for stomach cancer in all birth cohorts from 1900 to 1959 significantly increased; compared with the 1970–1974 cohort, the risk for stomach cancer in the 1975–1979 cohort significantly increased, whereas the others had a steadily decreased risk; compared with 85–89 age group in the 2005–2009 death survey, the ORs decreased with younger age and reached significant levels for the 50–54 age group after adjusting the confounding factors. The 1930 to 1964 group (exposed to famine had a higher mortality rate than the 1965 to 1999 group (not exposed to famine. For males, the relative risk (RR was 2.39 and the 95% confidence interval (CI was 1.51 to 3.77. For females, RR was 1.64 and 95% CI was 1.02 to 2.62. Conclusion The results of the present study suggested that prolonged malnutrition during early life may increase the risk of

  8. Milk intake and risk of mortality and fractures in women and men: cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaëlsson, Karl; Wolk, Alicja; Langenskiöld, Sophie; Basu, Samar; Warensjö Lemming, Eva; Melhus, Håkan; Byberg, Liisa

    2014-10-28

    To examine whether high milk consumption is associated with mortality and fractures in women and men. Cohort studies. Three counties in central Sweden. Two large Swedish cohorts, one with 61,433 women (39-74 years at baseline 1987-90) and one with 45,339 men (45-79 years at baseline 1997), were administered food frequency questionnaires. The women responded to a second food frequency questionnaire in 1997. Multivariable survival models were applied to determine the association between milk consumption and time to mortality or fracture. During a mean follow-up of 20.1 years, 15,541 women died and 17,252 had a fracture, of whom 4259 had a hip fracture. In the male cohort with a mean follow-up of 11.2 years, 10,112 men died and 5066 had a fracture, with 1166 hip fracture cases. In women the adjusted mortality hazard ratio for three or more glasses of milk a day compared with less than one glass a day was 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.80 to 2.06). For every glass of milk, the adjusted hazard ratio of all cause mortality was 1.15 (1.13 to 1.17) in women and 1.03 (1.01 to 1.04) in men. For every glass of milk in women no reduction was observed in fracture risk with higher milk consumption for any fracture (1.02, 1.00 to 1.04) or for hip fracture (1.09, 1.05 to 1.13). The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.01 (0.99 to 1.03) and 1.03 (0.99 to 1.07). In subsamples of two additional cohorts, one in males and one in females, a positive association was seen between milk intake and both urine 8-iso-PGF2α (a biomarker of oxidative stress) and serum interleukin 6 (a main inflammatory biomarker). High milk intake was associated with higher mortality in one cohort of women and in another cohort of men, and with higher fracture incidence in women. Given the observational study designs with the inherent possibility of residual confounding and reverse causation phenomena, a cautious interpretation of the results is recommended. © Michaëlsson et al 2014.

  9. Periodontal Disease and Risks of Kidney Function Decline and Mortality in Older People: A Community-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Tai; Shih, Chia-Jen; Ou, Shuo-Ming; Hung, Szu-Chun; Lin, Chi-Hung; Tarng, Der-Cherng

    2015-08-01

    The association between periodontal disease and chronic kidney disease in older people is controversial, and evidence for a causal link between kidney function decline and subsequent mortality risk is limited. Longitudinal, observational, community-based cohort study. Participants were citizens 65 years or older who received the Taipei City Government-sponsored Annual Elderly Health Examination Program during 2005 to 2010, including dental status assessment and biochemical examinations. Participants with periodontal disease defined by the World Health Organization Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Need criteria. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline ≥ 30% over 2 years. Of 100,263 study participants, 13,749 (13.7%) had periodontal disease. In a mean follow-up of 3.8 years, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates in those with periodontal disease (11.5% and 2.6%, respectively) were higher compared with those without periodontal disease (6.7% and 1.6%, respectively). After adjustment for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and biochemistry data, adjusted HRs for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.34 (95% CI, 1.26-1.42) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.13-1.41), respectively. The frequency of eGFR decline ≥ 30% over 1-, 2-, and 3-years' follow-up in those with periodontal disease was 1.8%, 3.7%, and 4.0%, respectively. In a logistic regression model, adjusted ORs of the detrimental effect of periodontal disease on 30% eGFR decline in participants over 1-, 2-, or 3-years' follow-up were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.85-1.25), 1.62 (95% CI, 1.41-1.87), and 1.59 (95% CI, 1.37-1.86), respectively. In subgroup analyses according to age, sex, and comorbid conditions, risks for eGFR decline and mortality remained consistent. Results may not be generalizable to other non-Asian ethnic populations. The results indicate that periodontal disease is a risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and e

  10. Short-term mortality risk of serum potassium levels in hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogager, Maria Lukacs; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Mortensen, Rikke Nørmark

    2017-01-01

    .0 mmol/L (hyperkalaemia). Outcome was 90-day mortality, estimated with multivariable Cox proportional hazard model, with the potassium interval of 4.1-4.4 mmol/L as reference. During 90-day follow-up, mortalities in the seven strata were 4.5, 2.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.7, 2.7, and 3.6%, respectively. Adjusted risk...... for death was statistically significant for patients with hypokalaemia [hazard ratio (HR): 2.80, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.17-3.62], and hyperkalaemia (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.36-2.13). Notably, normal potassium levels were also associated with increased mortality: K: 3.5- 3.7 mmol/L (HR: 1.70, 95% CI...

  11. Life-time risk of mortality due to different levels of alcohol consumption in seven European countries: implications for low-risk drinking guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Kevin D; Gmel, Gerrit; Gmel, Gerhard; Mäkelä, Pia; Probst, Charlotte; Room, Robin; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-09-01

    Low-risk alcohol drinking guidelines require a scientific basis that extends beyond individual or group judgements of risk. Life-time mortality risks, judged against established thresholds for acceptable risk, may provide such a basis for guidelines. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate alcohol mortality risks for seven European countries based on different average daily alcohol consumption amounts. The maximum acceptable voluntary premature mortality risk was determined to be one in 1000, with sensitivity analyses of one in 100. Life-time mortality risks for different alcohol consumption levels were estimated by combining disease-specific relative risk and mortality data for seven European countries with different drinking patterns (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Poland). Alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, relative risk data from meta-analyses and mortality information from the World Health Organization. The variation in the life-time mortality risk at drinking levels relevant for setting guidelines was less than that observed at high drinking levels. In Europe, the percentage of adults consuming above a risk threshold of one in 1000 ranged from 20.6 to 32.9% for women and from 35.4 to 54.0% for men. Life-time risk of premature mortality under current guideline maximums ranged from 2.5 to 44.8 deaths per 1000 women in Finland and Estonia, respectively, and from 2.9 to 35.8 deaths per 1000 men in Finland and Estonia, respectively. If based upon an acceptable risk of one in 1000, guideline maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men. If low-risk alcohol guidelines were based on an acceptable risk of one in 1000 premature deaths, then maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men, and some of the current European guidelines would require downward revision. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. Leisure-time aerobic physical activity, muscle-strengthening activity and mortality risks among US adults: the NHANES linked mortality study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Guixiang; Li, Chaoyang; Ford, Earl S; Fulton, Janet E; Carlson, Susan A; Okoro, Catherine A; Wen, Xiao Jun; Balluz, Lina S

    2014-02-01

    Regular physical activity elicits multiple health benefits in the prevention and management of chronic diseases. We examined the mortality risks associated with levels of leisure-time aerobic physical activity and muscle-strengthening activity based on the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans among US adults. We analysed data from the 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with linked mortality data obtained through 2006. Cox proportional HRs with 95% CIs were estimated to assess risks for all-causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with aerobic physical activity and muscle-strengthening activity. Of 10 535 participants, 665 died (233 deaths from CVD) during an average of 4.8-year follow-up. Compared with participants who were physically inactive, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0.64 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.79) among those who were physically active (engaging in ≥150 min/week of the equivalent moderate-intensity physical activity) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.97) among those who were insufficiently active (engaging in >0 to benefits among insufficiently active adults.

  13. A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

    2018-04-17

    The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  15. Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N

    2014-07-01

    A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright

  16. Fibrosis-Related Biomarkers and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Isha; Glazer, Nicole L.; Barasch, Eddy; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Gottdiener, John S.; Ix, Joachim H.; Kizer, Jorge R.; Rimm, Eric B.; Siscovick, David S.; Tracy, Russell P.; Zieman, Susan J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996–2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death. PMID:24771724

  17. Tea consumption and risk of cardiovascular outcomes and total mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chi; Qin, Ying-Yi; Wei, Xin; Yu, Fei-Fei; Zhou, Yu-Hao; He, Jia

    2015-01-01

    Studies that investigated the association between tea consumption and the risk of major cardiovascular events have reported inconsistent results. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective observational studies in order to summarize the evidence regarding the association between tea consumption and major cardiovascular outcomes or total mortality. In July 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase, and the Cochrane Library, followed by manual searches of reference lists from the resulting articles to identify other relevant studies. Prospective observational studies that reported effect estimates, with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, cardiac death, stroke death, or total mortality for more than two dosages of tea consumption were included. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to determine the risk of major cardiovascular outcomes associated with an increase in tea consumption by 3 cups per day. Of the 736 citations identified from database searches, we included 22 prospective studies from 24 articles reporting data on 856,206 individuals, and including 8,459 cases of CHD, 10,572 of stroke, 5,798 cardiac deaths, 2,350 stroke deaths, and 13,722 total deaths. Overall, an increase in tea consumption by 3 cups per day was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (relative risk [RR], 0.73; 95 % CI: 0.53–0.99; P = 0.045), cardiac death (RR, 0.74; 95 % CI: 0.63–0.86; P < 0.001), stroke (RR, 0.82; 95 % CI: 0.73–0.92; P = 0.001), total mortality (RR, 0.76; 95 % CI: 0.63–0.91; P = 0.003), cerebral infarction (RR, 0.84; 95 % CI: 0.72–0.98; P = 0.023), and intracerebral hemorrhage (RR, 0.79; 95 % CI: 0.72–0.87; P < 0.001), but had little or no effect on stroke mortality (RR, 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.83–1.05; P = 0.260). The findings from this meta-analysis indicate that increased tea consumption is associated with a reduced risk of CHD, cardiac death, stroke, cerebral infarction, and

  18. Mortality risk in a nationwide cohort of individuals with tic disorders and with tourette syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Sandra M; Dalsgaard, Søren; Mortensen, Preben B; Leckman, James F; Plessen, Kerstin J

    2017-04-01

    Few studies have investigated mortality risk in individuals with tic disorders. We thus measured the risk of premature death in individuals with tic disorders and with Tourette syndrome in a prospective cohort study with 80 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated mortality rate ratios and adjusted for calendar year, age, sex, urbanicity, maternal and paternal age, and psychiatric disorders to compare individuals with and without tic disorders. The risk of premature death was higher among individuals with tic disorders (mortality rate ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.49-2.66) and with Tourette syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11-2.28) compared with controls. After the exclusion of individuals with comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and substance abuse, tic disorder remained associated with increased mortality risk (mortality rate ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.57-3.23), as did also Tourette Syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.11-2.75). These results are of clinical significance for clinicians and advocacy organizations. Several factors may contribute to this increased risk of premature death, and more research mapping out these factors is needed. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  19. Metabolic syndrome and mortality in stable coronary heart disease: relation to gender

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kragelund, Charlotte; Køber, Lars; Faber, Jens

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is associated with subsequent development of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in the general population. The impact of MS on mortality in patients with stable coronary heart disease is less well defined, and the association of prognosis to gender...... follow-up of 9.2 years. RESULTS: At follow-up 296 (28%) patients had died. 315 (30%) patients had MS based on the definition by the World Health Organization. Patients with MS more frequently had diabetes and three-vessel disease of the coronary arteries. Men had a more severe risk profile than women....... In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, MS was not associated with excess mortality risk in the overall population [adjusted HR=1.3 (95% CI: 0.7-2.3), p=0.43]. In gender specific analyses MS increased risk of all-cause mortality in women [adjusted HR=2.2 (95% CI: 1.1-4.3), p=0.02], but not in men [adjusted HR=1...

  20. A prospective study of frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals and subsequent 9-year risk of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality in US adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graubard, Barry I.

    2018-01-01

    Restaurant prepared foods are known to be energy-dense and high in fat and sodium, but lower in protective nutrients. There is evidence of higher risk of adiposity, type II diabetes, and heart disease in frequent consumers of restaurant meals. However, the risk of mortality as a long-term health consequence of frequent consumption of restaurant meals has not been examined. We examined the prospective risk of all-cause and coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic) mortality in relation to frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals in a national cohort. We used frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals information collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, conducted from 1999–2004, with mortality follow-up completed through Dec. 31, 2011 (baseline age ≥ 40y; n = 9107). We estimated the relative hazard of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality associated with weekly frequency of eating restaurant meals using Cox-proportional hazards regression methods to adjust for multiple covariates. All analyses accounted for complex survey design and included sample weights. Over 33% of all respondents reported eating ≥3 restaurant prepared meals/week. In this cohort, 2200 deaths due to all causes and 665 cardiometabolic deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 9 years. The covariate-adjusted hazard ratio of all cause or cardiometabolic mortality in men and women reporters of meals did not differ from those reporting ≥3 meals/week (P>0.05). The results were robust to effect modification by baseline BMI, years of education, and baseline morbidity. Expectedly, the 24-h dietary intakes of whole grains, fruits, dietary fiber, folate, vitamin C, potassium and magnesium at baseline were lower, but energy, energy density, and energy from fat were higher in more frequent restaurant meal reporters (Peating restaurant prepared meals (Peating restaurant prepared meals and prospective risk of mortality after 9

  1. A prospective study of frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals and subsequent 9-year risk of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality in US adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

    2018-01-01

    Restaurant prepared foods are known to be energy-dense and high in fat and sodium, but lower in protective nutrients. There is evidence of higher risk of adiposity, type II diabetes, and heart disease in frequent consumers of restaurant meals. However, the risk of mortality as a long-term health consequence of frequent consumption of restaurant meals has not been examined. We examined the prospective risk of all-cause and coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic) mortality in relation to frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals in a national cohort. We used frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals information collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, conducted from 1999-2004, with mortality follow-up completed through Dec. 31, 2011 (baseline age ≥ 40y; n = 9107). We estimated the relative hazard of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality associated with weekly frequency of eating restaurant meals using Cox-proportional hazards regression methods to adjust for multiple covariates. All analyses accounted for complex survey design and included sample weights. Over 33% of all respondents reported eating ≥3 restaurant prepared meals/week. In this cohort, 2200 deaths due to all causes and 665 cardiometabolic deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 9 years. The covariate-adjusted hazard ratio of all cause or cardiometabolic mortality in men and women reporters of restaurant prepared meals did not differ from those reporting ≥3 meals/week (P>0.05). The results were robust to effect modification by baseline BMI, years of education, and baseline morbidity. Expectedly, the 24-h dietary intakes of whole grains, fruits, dietary fiber, folate, vitamin C, potassium and magnesium at baseline were lower, but energy, energy density, and energy from fat were higher in more frequent restaurant meal reporters (Prestaurant prepared meals (Prestaurant prepared meals and prospective risk of mortality after 9

  2. Serum selenium level and risk of lung cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suadicani, P; Hein, H O; Gyntelberg, F

    2011-01-01

    Serum selenium has been implicated as a risk factor for lung cancer, but the issue remains unsettled. We tested in a cohort of 3,333 males aged 53 to 74 years the hypothesis that a low serum selenium would be associated with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality.During 16 years, 167 subjects(5.......1%) died from lung cancer; 48 males (5.0%) among males with low serum selenium, 0.4-1.0 μmol·l(-1), n=965, 57 males (5.1%) among males with medium serum selenium, 1.1-1.2 μmol·l(-1), n=1,141, and 62 males (5.1%) among males with high serum selenium, 1.3-3.0 μmol·l(-1), n=1,227. After adjustment for age...... (chronic bronchitis and peak flow), referencing the lowest level of serum selenium HRs were 1.17(0.79-1.75), and 1.43(0.96-2.14), respectively. Among heavy smokers a high serum selenium was associated with a significantly increased risk of lung cancer mortality after taking into account all potential...

  3. Cardiovascular Risk Factors and 5-year Mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    population. METHODS: We studied 905 ischemic stroke patients from the community-based Copenhagen Stroke Study. Patients had a CT scan and stroke severity was measured by the Scandinavian Stroke Scale on admission. A comprehensive evaluation was performed by a standardized medical examination...... and questionnaire for cardiovascular risk factors, age, and sex. Follow-up was performed 5 years after stroke, and data on mortality were obtained for all, except 6, who had left the country. Five-year mortality was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier procedure and the influence of multiple predictors was analyzed...... by Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were...

  4. Cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    population. METHODS: We studied 905 ischemic stroke patients from the community-based Copenhagen Stroke Study. Patients had a CT scan and stroke severity was measured by the Scandinavian Stroke Scale on admission. A comprehensive evaluation was performed by a standardized medical examination...... and questionnaire for cardiovascular risk factors, age, and sex. Follow-up was performed 5 years after stroke, and data on mortality were obtained for all, except 6, who had left the country. Five-year mortality was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier procedure and the influence of multiple predictors was analyzed...... by Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were...

  5. The HbA1c and All-Cause Mortality Relationship in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes is J-Shaped: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Luke W.; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Low blood glucose and HbA1c levels are recommended in the literature on management of diabetes. However, data have shown that low blood glucose is associated with serious adverse effects for the patients and the recommendation has been criticized. Therefore, this article revisits the relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality by a meta-analysis of observational studies. AIM: The aim of this study is to determine whether there is a J- or U-shaped non-linear relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes patients, implying an increased risk to premature all-cause mortality at high and low levels of HbA1c. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted using PubMed, Medline, and Cochrane Library databases with strict inclusion/exclusion criteria. The published adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals of all-cause mortality for each HbA1c category and per study were analyzed. Fractional polynomial regression was used with random effect modeling to assess the non-linear relationship of the HR trends between studies. Seven eligible observational studies with a total of 147,424 participants were included in the study. RESULTS: A significant J-shaped relationship was observed between HbA1c and all-cause mortality. Crude relative risk for all-cause mortality identified a decreased risk per 1% increase in HbA1c below 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) (0.90, CI 0.86-0.94) and an increased risk per 1% increase in HbA1c above 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) (1.04, CI 1.01-1.06). Observational studies revealed a J-shaped relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality, equivalent to an increased risk of mortality at high and low HbA1c levels. CONCLUSIONS: This increased mortality at high and low HbA1c levels has significant implications on investigating optimum clinical HbA1c targets as it suggests that there are upper and lower limits for creating a 'security zone' for diabetes management. PMID:25396402

  6. Income inequality, individual income, and mortality in Danish adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, Merete; Prescott, Eva; Grønbaek, Morten

    2002-01-01

    To analyse the association between area income inequality and mortality after adjustment for individual income and other established risk factors.......To analyse the association between area income inequality and mortality after adjustment for individual income and other established risk factors....

  7. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  8. Relation of Periodontitis to Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality (from a Danish Nationwide Cohort Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Gorm Mørk; Egeberg, Alexander; Holmstrup, Palle

    2016-01-01

    Periodontitis and atherosclerosis are highly prevalent chronic inflammatory diseases, and it has been suggested that periodontitis is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and that a causal link may exist between the 2 diseases. Using Danish national registers, we identified...... a nationwide cohort of 17,691 patients who received a hospital diagnosis of periodontitis within a 15-year period and matched them with 83,003 controls from the general population. We performed Poisson regression analysis to determine crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios of myocardial infarction, ischemic...... stroke, cardiovascular death, major adverse cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality. The results showed that patients with periodontitis were at higher risk of all examined end points. The findings remained significant after adjustment for increased baseline co-morbidity in periodontitis patients...

  9. Risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia and mortality due to gram negative bacteraemia in a developing country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalam, K.; Kumar, S.; Ali, S.; Baqi, S.; Qamar, F.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To identify the risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia and mortality due to gram negative bacteraemia in a developing country. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT) from June to October 2012. Hospitalized patients > 15 years of age with gram negative bacteraemia were included and followed for a period of 2 weeks for in hospital mortality. Data was collected and analyzed for 243 subjects. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia and mortality due to gram negative bacteraemia. Crude and adjusted odds ratio and 95% CI are reported. Results: A total of 729 out of 1535 (47.5%) cultures were positive for gram negative isolates. Out of 243 subjects, 117 (48%) had an MDR isolate. Having an MDR isolate on culture (AOR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.35 -4.0), having multiple positive cultures (AOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.94 -3.4) and stay in ICU >48 hours (AOR, 2.0 ; 95% CI, 1.12 -3.78) were identified as significant risk factors for mortality due to gram negative organisms. Risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia were age >50 years (AOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5), septic shock on presentation (AOR 2.53; 95% CI, 1.03 -6.2) , ICU stay of >72 hours (AOR 2.40; 95% CI, 1.14-5.0) and receiving immunosuppressant medications (AOR 2.23; 95% CI, 0.74 - 6.7). Conclusion: There is a high burden of MDR and carbapenem resistant gram negative bacteraemia, with a high mortality rate. (author)

  10. Acute respiratory failure in Pakistani patients: risk factors associated with mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, S.F.; Irfan, M.; Naqi, Y.S.; Islam, M.; Akhtar, W.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To assess the outcome and risk factors associated with mortality in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). Design: Observational study. Place and Duration of Study: The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, between January 1997 and June 2001. Patients and Methods: All adult patients admitted with a medical cause of acute respiratory failure were reviewed. The primary outcome measure was mortality and secondary outcome measures were factors associated with mortality in ARF. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for mortality. Results: A total of 270 patients were admitted with ARF. Hypercapnic respiratory failure was seen in 186 (69%) and hypoxemic in 84 (31%) cases. Pneumonia and COPD exacerbation were the most common underlying causes of ARF. Ventilator support was required in 93 (34.4%) patients. Hospital mortality was 28%. Chronic renal failure, malignancy, hypokalemia, severe acidosis (pH <7.25), septicemia and ARDS independently correlated with mortality. Mortality rate increased sharply (84%) with the presence of three or more risk factors. Conclusion: Acute respiratory failure has a high mortality rate (28%). Development of ARDS or septicemia was associated with high mortality. Presence of more than one risk factor significantly increased the mortality rate. (author)

  11. Improvement in 5-year mortality in incident rheumatoid arthritis compared with the general population-closing the mortality gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacaille, Diane; Avina-Zubieta, J Antonio; Sayre, Eric C; Abrahamowicz, Michal

    2017-06-01

    Excess mortality in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is expected to have improved over time, due to improved treatment. Our objective was to evaluate secular 5-year mortality trends in RA relative to general population controls in incident RA cohorts diagnosed in 1996-2000 vs 2001-2006. We conducted a population-based cohort study, using administrative health data, of all incident RA cases in British Columbia who first met RA criteria between January 1996 and December 2006, with general population controls matched 1:1 on gender, birth and index years. Cohorts were divided into earlier (RA onset 1996-2000) and later (2001-2006) cohorts. Physician visits and vital statistics data were obtained until December 2010. Follow-up was censored at 5 years to ensure equal follow-up in both cohorts. Mortality rates, mortality rate ratios and HRs for mortality (RA vs controls) using proportional hazard models adjusting for age, were calculated. Differences in mortality in RA versus controls between earlier and later incident cohorts were tested via interaction between RA status (case/control) and cohort (earlier/later). 24 914 RA cases and controls experienced 2747 and 2332 deaths, respectively. Mortality risk in RA versus controls differed across incident cohorts for all-cause, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer mortality (interactions pyears was observed in people with RA onset before, but not after, 2000. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  12. Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, M A

    1987-02-01

    The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.

  13. Atrial Fibrillation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Prevalence, Clinical Correlations, and Mortality in a Large High‐Risk Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siontis, Konstantinos C.; Geske, Jeffrey B.; Ong, Kevin; Nishimura, Rick A.; Ommen, Steve R.; Gersh, Bernard J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common sequela of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but evidence on its prevalence, risk factors, and effect on mortality is sparse. We sought to evaluate the prevalence of AF, identify clinical and echocardiographic correlates, and assess its effect on mortality in a large high‐risk HCM population. Methods and Results We identified HCM patients who underwent evaluation at our institution from 1975 to 2012. AF was defined by known history (either chronic or paroxysmal), electrocardiogram, or Holter monitoring at index visit. We examined clinical and echocardiographic variables in association with AF. The effect of AF on overall and cause‐specific mortality was evaluated with multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Of 3673 patients with HCM, 650 (18%) had AF. Patients with AF were older and more symptomatic (P<0.001). AF was less common among patients with obstructive HCM phenotype and was associated with larger left atria, higher E/e’ ratios, and worse cardiopulmonary exercise tolerance (all P values<0.001). During median (interquartile range) follow‐up of 4.1 (0.2 to 10) years, 1069 (29%) patients died. Patients with AF had worse survival compared to those without AF (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis adjusted for established risk factors of mortality in HCM, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for the effect of AF on overall mortality was 1.48 (1.27 to 1.71). AF did not have an effect on sudden or nonsudden cardiac death. Conclusions In this large referral HCM population, approximately 1 in 5 patients had AF. AF was a strong predictor of mortality, even after adjustment for established risk factors. PMID:24965028

  14. Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

    2014-10-01

    We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

    2016-01-01

    Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

  16. Maternal expectations and postpartum emotional adjustment in first-time mothers: results of a questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshaw, Erin J; Fried, Rachel; Teeters, Jenni Beth; Siskind, Emily E

    2014-09-01

    Several predictors of postpartum mood have been identified in the literature, but the role of maternal expectations in postpartum mental health remains unclear. The aim of this study was to identify whether maternal expectations during the postpartum hospital stay predict adjustment and depressive symptoms at 6 weeks postpartum. The sample included 233 first-time mothers recruited from the postpartum unit of a Midwestern hospital. Participants completed measures of maternal expectations and depressive symptoms (EPDS) at Time 1 (2 d postpartum) and completed EPDS and an Emotional Adjustment Scale (BaM-13) at Time 2 (6 weeks postpartum). A conditional relationship between the expectation that an infant's behavior will reflect maternal skill and Time 2 outcomes (BaM-13 and EPDS) was found, such that endorsing this belief predicted increased depression and poorer adjustment in those with higher (but not lower) Time 1 EPDS scores. Time 2 BaM-13 scores were also negatively predicted by expectations of self-sacrifice and positively predicted by expectations that parenthood would be naturally fulfilling. The expectations that new mothers hold about parenting soon after delivery are predictive of emotional adjustment in the early postpartum period, suggesting a role for discussion of expectations in future preventive strategies.

  17. Optimal Versus Realized Trajectories of Physiological Dysregulation in Aging and Their Relation to Sex-Specific Mortality Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arbeev, Konstantin G; Cohen, Alan A; Arbeeva, Liubov S

    2016-01-01

    dysregulation is related to different aging-related characteristics such as decline in stress resistance and adaptive capacity (which typically are not observed in the data and thus can be analyzed only indirectly), and, ultimately, to estimate how such dynamic relationships increase mortality risk with age. We...... substantial sex differences in these processes, with women becoming dysregulated more quickly but with men showing a much greater sensitivity to dysregulation in terms of mortality risk....

  18. The Folate-Vitamin B12 Interaction, Low Hemoglobin, and the Mortality Risk from Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2016-03-21

    Abnormal hemoglobin levels are a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Although the mechanism underlying these associations is elusive, inadequate micronutrients, particularly folate and vitamin B12, may increase the risk for anemia, cognitive impairment, and AD. In this study, we investigated whether the nutritional status of folate and vitamin B12 is involved in the association between low hemoglobin levels and the risk of AD mortality. Data were obtained from the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the NHANES (1999-2006) Linked Mortality File. A total of 4,688 participants aged ≥60 years with available baseline data were included in this study. We categorized three groups based on the quartiles of folate and vitamin B12 as follows: Group I (low folate and vitamin B12); Group II (high folate and low vitamin B12 or low folate and high vitamin B12); and Group III (high folate and vitamin B12). Of 4,688 participants, 49 subjects died due to AD. After adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, education, smoking history, body mass index, the presence of diabetes or hypertension, and dietary intake of iron, significant increases in the AD mortality were observed in Quartile1 for hemoglobin (HR: 8.4, 95% CI: 1.4-50.8), and the overall risk of AD mortality was significantly reduced with increases in the quartile of hemoglobin (p for trend = 0.0200), in subjects with low levels of both folate and vitamin B12 at baseline. This association did not exist in subjects with at least one high level of folate and vitamin B12. Our finding shows the relationship between folate and vitamin B12 levels with respect to the association between hemoglobin levels and AD mortality.

  19. Do other cardiovascular risk factors influence the impact of age on the association between blood pressure and mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H

    2014-01-01

    Hg increase in SBP/DBP by multivariate-adjusted Cox regressions, including SBP and DBP simultaneously. Because of nonlinearity, SBP and DBP were analyzed separately for blood pressure (BP) values above and below a cut-point wherein mortality risk was the lowest. For the total population, significantly...... 82 mmHg [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. BP values below the cut-points were inversely related to mortality risk. Taking into account the age × BP interaction, there was a gradual shift from DBP (19-26 years) to both DBP and SBP (27-62 years) and to SBP (63-78 years) as risk factors for stroke mortality and all...

  20. Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43-58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates.

  1. Inter-arm blood pressure difference and mortality: a cohort study in an asymptomatic primary care population at elevated cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Christopher E; Taylor, Rod S; Butcher, Isabella; Stewart, Marlene Cw; Price, Jackie; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

    2016-05-01

    Differences in blood pressure between arms are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in cohorts with established vascular disease or substantially elevated cardiovascular risk. To explore the association of inter-arm difference (IAD) with mortality in a community-dwelling cohort that is free of cardiovascular disease. Cohort analysis of a randomised controlled trial in central Scotland, from April 1998 to October 2008. Volunteers from Lanarkshire, Glasgow, and Edinburgh, free of pre-existing vascular disease and with an ankle-brachial index ≤0.95, had systolic blood pressure measured in both arms at recruitment. Inter-arm blood pressure differences were calculated and examined for cross-sectional associations and differences in prospective survival. Outcome measures were cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality during mean follow-up of 8.2 years. Based on a single pair of measurements, 60% of 3350 participants had a systolic IAD ≥5 mmHg and 38% ≥10 mmHg. An IAD ≥5 mmHg was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 3.07) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.79). Within the subgroup of 764 participants who had hypertension, IADs of ≥5 mmHg or ≥10 mmHg were associated with both cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 2.63, 95% CI = 0.97 to 7.02, and adjusted HR 2.96, 95% CI = 1.27 to 6.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.66, and adjusted HR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.50, respectively). IADs ≥15 mmHg were not associated with survival differences in this population. Systolic IADs in blood pressure are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, including mortality, in a large cohort of people free of pre-existing vascular disease. © British Journal of General Practice 2016.

  2. Does exposure to opioid substitution treatment in prison reduce the risk of death after release? A national prospective observational study in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsden, John; Stillwell, Garry; Jones, Hayley; Cooper, Alisha; Eastwood, Brian; Farrell, Michael; Lowden, Tim; Maddalena, Nino; Metcalfe, Chris; Shaw, Jenny; Hickman, Matthew

    2017-08-01

    People with opioid use disorder (OUD) in prison face an acute risk of death after release. We estimated whether prison-based opioid substitution treatment (OST) reduces this risk. Prospective observational cohort study using prison health care, national community drug misuse treatment and deaths registers. Recruitment at 39 adult prisons in England (32 male; seven female) accounting for 95% of OST treatment in England during study planning. Adult prisoners diagnosed with OUD (recruited: September 2010-August 2013; first release: September 2010; last release: October 2014; follow-up to February 2016; n = 15 141 in the risk set). At release, participants were classified as OST exposed (n = 8645) or OST unexposed (n = 6496). The OST unexposed group did not receive OST, or had been withdrawn, or had a low dose. Primary outcome: all-cause mortality (ACM) in the first 4 weeks. drug-related poisoning (DRP) deaths in the first 4 weeks; ACM and DRP mortality after 4 weeks to 1 year; admission to community drug misuse treatment in the first 4 weeks. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression models (covariates: sex, age, drug injecting, problem alcohol use, use of benzodiazepines, cocaine, prison transfer and admission to community treatment), tested difference in mortality rates and community treatment uptake. During the first 4 weeks after prison release there were 24 ACM deaths: six in the OST exposed group and 18 in the OST unexposed group [mortality rate 0.93 per 100 person-years (py) versus 3.67 per 100 py; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.10-0.64]. There were 18 DRP deaths: OST exposed group mortality rate 0.47 per 100 py versus 3.06 per 100 py in the OST unexposed group (HR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.04-0.53). There was no group difference in mortality risk after the first month. The OST exposed group was more likely to enter drug misuse treatment in the first month post-release (odds ratio 2.47, 95% CI = 2.31-2.65). The OST

  3. Differences in case-mix can influence the comparison of standardised mortality ratios even with optimal risk adjustment: an analysis of data from paediatric intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manktelow, Bradley N; Evans, T Alun; Draper, Elizabeth S

    2014-09-01

    The publication of clinical outcomes for consultant surgeons in 10 specialties within the NHS has, along with national clinical audits, highlighted the importance of measuring and reporting outcomes with the aim of monitoring quality of care. Such information is vital to be able to identify good and poor practice and to inform patient choice. The need to adequately adjust outcomes for differences in case-mix has long been recognised as being necessary to provide 'like-for-like' comparisons between providers. However, directly comparing values of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) between different healthcare providers can be misleading even when the risk-adjustment perfectly quantifies the risk of a poor outcome in the reference population. An example is shown from paediatric intensive care. Using observed case-mix differences for 33 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the UK and Ireland for 2009-2011, SMRs were calculated under four different scenarios where, in each scenario, all of the PICUs were performing identically for each patient type. Each scenario represented a clinically plausible difference in outcome from the reference population. Despite the fact that the outcome for any patient was the same no matter which PICU they were to be admitted to, differences between the units were seen when compared using the SMR: scenario 1, 1.07-1.21; scenario 2, 1.00-1.14; scenario 3, 1.04-1.13; scenario 4, 1.00-1.09. Even if two healthcare providers are performing equally for each type of patient, if their patient populations differ in case-mix their SMRs will not necessarily take the same value. Clinical teams and commissioners must always keep in mind this weakness of the SMR when making decisions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  4. Risk factors associated with on-farm mortality in Swedish dairy cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alvåsen, K.; Jansson Mörk, M.; Dohoo, I. R.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy cow mortality (unassisted death and euthanasia) has increased, worldwide and in Sweden. On-farm mortality indicates suboptimal herd health or welfare and causes financial loss for the dairy producer. The objective of this study was to identify cow-level risk factors associated with on......). The effects of potential risk factors on on-farm cow mortality were analysed using a Weibull proportional hazard model with a gamma distributed frailty effect common to cows within herd. The event of interest (failure) was euthanasia or unassisted death. An observation was right censored if the cow...

  5. Hyperprolactinemia and the Association with All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Hyperprolactinemia has been suspected to increase mortality risk, but the available data are conflicting. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between hyperprolactinemia and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among patients referred for assessment of prolactin......-cause mortality (95% CI 1.22-2.82) and 2.55 (95% CI 1.43-4.55) for cardiovascular mortality. The IRR for all-cause mortality was reduced to 1.37 (0.90-2.08) when adjusted for the use of antipsychotic medication. The association between hyperprolactinemia and cardiovascular mortality remained after adjusting...... for confounders, for example, chronic renal failure, diabetes, and antipsychotic medication. In females, hyperprolactinemia was not associated with all-cause mortality (IRR 1.45; CI 0.86-2.47) or cardiovascular mortality (IRR 0.58; CI 0.14-2.39). In conclusion, hyperprolactinemia was associated with increased...

  6. Identification of occupational mortality risks for Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kneale, G.W.; Mancuso, T.F.; Stewart, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Though most of the production work at Hanford is done by manual workers, 46% of the most dangerous jobs are performed by people who have professional or technical qualifications. For these privileged workers occupational mortality risks are positively correlated with radiation doses but for manual workers, who have relatively high death rates, there is an inverse relation with dose. The high ratio of professional to manual workers is clearly the reason for the industry having fewer observed than expected deaths and the inverse relation with dose for less privileged workers is probably a sign that there has been selective recruitment of the most highly paid manual workers-that is, skilled craftsmen into the more dangerous occupations. Evidence of this selective recruitment was obtained by equating danger levels with levels of monitoring for internal radiation. Therefore, there should be some control for these levels in any analysis of cancer effects of the measured dose of radiation. (author)

  7. Development and Validation of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Indicator for Mortality After Congenital Heart Surgery Harmonized With Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kathy J; Koch Kupiec, Jennifer; Owens, Pamela L; Romano, Patrick S; Geppert, Jeffrey J; Gauvreau, Kimberlee

    2016-05-20

    The National Quality Forum previously approved a quality indicator for mortality after congenital heart surgery developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Several parameters of the validated Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method were included, but others differed. As part of the National Quality Forum endorsement maintenance process, developers were asked to harmonize the 2 methodologies. Parameters that were identical between the 2 methods were retained. AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) 2008 were used to select optimal parameters where differences existed, with a goal to maximize model performance and face validity. Inclusion criteria were not changed and included all discharges for patients model includes procedure risk group, age (0-28 days, 29-90 days, 91-364 days, 1-17 years), low birth weight (500-2499 g), other congenital anomalies (Clinical Classifications Software 217, except for 758.xx), multiple procedures, and transfer-in status. Among 17 945 eligible cases in the SID 2008, the c statistic for model performance was 0.82. In the SID 2013 validation data set, the c statistic was 0.82. Risk-adjusted mortality rates by center ranged from 0.9% to 4.1% (5th-95th percentile). Congenital heart surgery programs can now obtain national benchmarking reports by applying AHRQ Quality Indicator software to hospital administrative data, based on the harmonized RACHS-1 method, with high discrimination and face validity. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  8. Plasma urate, cancer incidence, and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kobylecki, Camilla J.; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G.

    2017-01-01

    and risk of cancer and all-cause mortality were calculated using Cox regression, Fine and Gray competing-risks regression, and instrumental variable analyses. Results: During a median follow-up time of 3.9 years for cancer and 4.9 years for all-cause mortality, 3243 individuals received a diagnosis...... of cancer and 3978 died. Observationally, 50% higher plasma urate was associated with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.11 (95% CI, 1.05-1.18) for cancer incidence and 1.07 (1.01-1.13) for all-cause mortality. Each A-allele of the SLC2A9 rs7442295 was associated with 9% higher plasma urate...

  9. Geographic inequalities in all-cause mortality in Japan: compositional or contextual?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etsuji Suzuki

    Full Text Available A recent study from Japan suggested that geographic inequalities in all-cause premature adult mortality have increased since 1995 in both sexes even after adjusting for individual age and occupation in 47 prefectures. Such variations can arise from compositional effects as well as contextual effects. In this study, we sought to further examine the emerging geographic inequalities in all-cause mortality, by exploring the relative contribution of composition and context in each prefecture.We used the 2005 vital statistics and census data among those aged 25 or older. The total number of decedents was 524,785 men and 455,863 women. We estimated gender-specific two-level logistic regression to model mortality risk as a function of age, occupation, and residence in 47 prefectures. Prefecture-level variance was used as an estimate of geographic inequalities in mortality, and prefectures were ranked by odds ratios (ORs, with the reference being the grand mean of all prefectures (value = 1.Overall, the degree of geographic inequalities was more pronounced when we did not account for the composition (i.e., age and occupation in each prefecture. Even after adjusting for the composition, however, substantial differences remained in mortality risk across prefectures with ORs ranging from 0.870 (Okinawa to 1.190 (Aomori for men and from 0.864 (Shimane to 1.132 (Aichi for women. In some prefectures (e.g., Aomori, adjustment for composition showed little change in ORs, while we observed substantial attenuation in ORs in other prefectures (e.g., Akita. We also observed qualitative changes in some prefectures (e.g., Tokyo. No clear associations were observed between prefecture-level socioeconomic status variables and the risk of mortality in either sex.Geographic disparities in mortality across prefectures are quite substantial and cannot be fully explained by differences in population composition. The relative contribution of composition and context to health

  10. Mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection type A: analysis of pre- and intraoperative risk factors from the German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conzelmann, Lars Oliver; Weigang, Ernst; Mehlhorn, Uwe; Abugameh, Ahmad; Hoffmann, Isabell; Blettner, Maria; Etz, Christian D; Czerny, Martin; Vahl, Christian F

    2016-02-01

    Acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) is an emergency with excessive mortality if surgery is delayed. Knowledge about independent predictors of mortality on surgically treated AADA patients is scarce. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify pre- and intraoperative risk factors for death. Between July 2006 and June 2010, 2137 surgically treated patients with AADA were enrolled in a multicentre, prospective German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection type A (GERAADA), presenting perioperative status, operative strategies, postoperative outcomes and AADA-related risk factors for death. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the influence of different parameters on 30-day mortality. Overall 30-day mortality (16.9%) increased with age [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.121] and among patients who were comatose (adjusted OR = 3.501) or those who underwent cardiopulmonary resuscitation (adjusted OR = 3.751; all P risk for death was (adjusted OR for one organ = 1.651, two organs = 2.440, three organs or more = 3.393, P 0.1). No significant risk factors, but relevant increases in mortality, were determined in patients suffering from hemiparesis pre- and postoperatively (each P risk factors for death in AADA, influencing the outcome of surgically treated AADA patients. Comatose and resuscitated patients have the poorest outcome. Cannulation sites and operative techniques did not seem to affect mortality. Short operative times are associated with better outcomes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  11. The burden of premature mortality in Spain using standard expected years of life lost: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvarez-Martín Elena

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Measures of premature mortality have been used to guide debates on future health priorities and to monitor the population health status. Standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL is one of the methods used to assess the time lost due to premature death. This article affords an overview of premature mortality in Spain for the year 2008. Methods A population-based study was conducted estimating SEYLL by sex and age groups. SEYLL, a key component of the disability-adjusted life years measure of disease burden, was calculated using Princeton West standard life tables with life expectancy at birth fixed at 80 years for males and 82.5 years for females. Population data and specific death records were obtained from the official registers of the National Institute of Statistics. All data were analysed and prepared in GesMor and Epidat software packages. Results The burden of premature mortality was estimated at 2.1 million SEYLL when age at death is taken into account. Males lost 60.9% and females lost 39.1% of total SEYLL. Malignant tumors (34.5% and cardiovascular diseases (24.0% were the leading categories in terms of SEYLL. Ischaemic heart disease (8.5% and lung cancers (8.0% were the most common specific causes of SEYLL followed by cerebrovascular diseases (5.9%, colorectal cancer (4.1%, road traffic accidents (3.5%, Alzheimer and other dementias (2.9%, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.8%, breast cancer (2.8% and suicides (2.6%. Conclusions In Spain, premature mortality was essentially due to chronic non-communicable diseases. Data provided in this study are relevant for a more balanced health agenda aimed at reducing the burden of premature mortality. This study also represents a first step in estimating the overall burden of disease in terms of premature death and disability.

  12. Effects of nurse staffing, work environments, and education on patient mortality: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Eunhee; Sloane, Douglas M; Kim, Eun-Young; Kim, Sera; Choi, Miyoung; Yoo, Il Young; Lee, Hye Sun; Aiken, Linda H

    2015-02-01

    While considerable evidence has been produced showing a link between nursing characteristics and patient outcomes in the U.S. and Europe, little is known about whether similar associations are present in South Korea. To examine the effects of nurse staffing, work environment, and education on patient mortality. This study linked hospital facility data with staff nurse survey data (N=1024) and surgical patient discharge data (N=76,036) from 14 high-technology teaching hospitals with 700 or more beds in South Korea, collected between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2008. Logistic regression models that corrected for the clustering of patients in hospitals were used to estimate the effects of the three nursing characteristics on risk-adjusted patient mortality within 30 days of admission. Risk-adjusted models reveal that nurse staffing, nurse work environments, and nurse education were significantly associated with patient mortality (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10; OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.31-0.88; and OR 0.91, CI 0.83-0.99; respectively). These odds ratios imply that each additional patient per nurse is associated with an 5% increase in the odds of patient death within 30 days of admission, that the odds of patient mortality are nearly 50% lower in the hospitals with better nurse work environments than in hospitals with mixed or poor nurse work environments, and that each 10% increase in nurses having Bachelor of Science in Nursing Degree is associated with a 9% decrease in patient deaths. Nurse staffing, nurse work environments, and percentages of nurses having Bachelor of Science in Nursing Degree in South Korea are associated with patient mortality. Improving hospital nurse staffing and work environments and increasing the percentages of nurses having Bachelor of Science in Nursing Degree would help reduce the number of preventable in-hospital deaths. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Loss of life expectancy derived from a standardized mortality ratio in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skriver, Mette Vinther; Væth, Michael; Støvring, Henrik

    2018-01-01

    The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) is a widely used measure. A recent methodological study provided an accurate approximate relationship between an SMR and difference in lifetime expectancies. This study examines the usefulness of the theoretical relationship, when comparing historic mortality data in four Scandinavian populations. For Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, data on mortality every fifth year in the period 1950 to 2010 were obtained. Using 1980 as the reference year, SMRs and difference in life expectancy were calculated. The assumptions behind the theoretical relationship were examined graphically. The theoretical relationship predicts a linear association with a slope, [Formula: see text], between log(SMR) and difference in life expectancies, and the theoretical prediction and calculated differences in lifetime expectancies were compared. We examined the linear association both for life expectancy at birth and at age 30. All analyses were done for females, males and the total population. The approximate relationship provided accurate predictions of actual differences in lifetime expectancies. The accuracy of the predictions was better when age was restricted to above 30, and improved if the changes in mortality rate were close to a proportional change. Slopes of the linear relationship were generally around 9 for females and 10 for males. The theoretically derived relationship between SMR and difference in life expectancies provides an accurate prediction for comparing populations with approximately proportional differences in mortality, and was relatively robust. The relationship may provide a useful prediction of differences in lifetime expectancies, which can be more readily communicated and understood.

  14. Adjustment of lifetime risks of space radiation-induced cancer by the healthy worker effect and cancer misclassification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leif E. Peterson

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions. The typical life table approach for projecting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality and incidence for astronauts and radiation workers can be improved by adjusting for HWE while simulating the uncertainty of input rates, input excess risk coefficients, and bias correction factors during multiple Monte Carlo realizations of the life table.

  15. Cancer mortality disparities among New York City's Upper Manhattan neighborhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Dana; Manczuk, Marta; Holcombe, Randall; Lucchini, Roberto; Boffetta, Paolo

    2017-11-01

    The East Harlem (EH), Central Harlem (CH), and Upper East Side (UES) neighborhoods of New York City are geographically contiguous to tertiary medical care, but are characterized by cancer mortality rate disparities. This ecological study aims to disentangle the effects of race and neighborhood on cancer deaths. Mortality-to-incidence ratios were determined using neighborhood-specific data from the New York State Cancer Registry and Vital Records Office (2007-2011). Ecological data on modifiable cancer risk factors from the New York City Community Health Survey (2002-2006) were stratified by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood and modeled against stratified mortality rates to disentangle race/ethnicity and neighborhood using logistic regression. Significant gaps in mortality rates were observed between the UES and both CH and EH across all cancers, favoring UES. Mortality-to-incidence ratios of both CH and EH were similarly elevated in the range of 0.41-0.44 compared with UES (0.26-0.30). After covariate and multivariable adjustment, black race (odds ratio=1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.46-1.93) and EH residence (odds ratio=1.20; 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.35) remained significant risk factors in all cancers' combined mortality. Mortality disparities remain among EH, CH, and UES neighborhoods. Both neighborhood and race are significantly associated with cancer mortality, independent of each other. Multivariable adjusted models that include Community Health Survey risk factors show that this mortality gap may be avoidable through community-based public health interventions.

  16. Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs). Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can only be demonstrated by an

  17. Liver-related mortality in countries of the developed world: an ecological study approach to explain the variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, M; Clark, P J; Macdonald, G A; Raj, A S; Kendall, B J; Powell, E E; Jones, M P; Holtmann, G

    2016-07-01

    Liver-related mortality varies across developed nations. To assess the relative role of various risk factors in relation to liver-related mortality in an ecological study approach. Data for liver-related mortality, prevalence data for hepatitis B and C, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), alcohol consumption per capita, Type 2 Diabetes mellitus (T2DM), overweight and obesity were extracted from peer-reviewed publications or WHO databases for different developed countries. As potential other risk-modifying factors, purchase power parity (PPP)-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and health expenditure per capita were assessed. As an environmental 'hygiene factor', we also assessed the effect of the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori. Only countries with a PPP-adjusted GDP greater than $20 000 and valid information for at least 8 risk modifiers were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilised to quantify the contribution to the variability in liver-related mortality. The proportion of chronic liver diseases (CLD)-related mortality ranged from 0.73-2.40% [mean 1.56%, 95% CI (1.43-1.69)] of all deaths. Univariately, CLD-related mortality was significantly associated with Hepatitis B prevalence, alcohol consumption, PPP-adjusted GDP (all P < 0.05) and potentially H. pylori prevalence (P = 0.055). Other investigated factors, including hepatitis C, did not yield significance. Backward elimination suggested hepatitis B, alcohol consumption and PPP-adjusted GDP as risk factors (explaining 66.3% of the variability). Hepatitis B infection, alcohol consumption and GDP, but not hepatitis C or other factors, explain most of the variance of liver-related mortality. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Alternative Strategies to Achieve Cardiovascular Mortality Goals in China and India: A Microsimulation of Target- Versus Risk-Based Blood Pressure Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Yudkin, John S; Sussman, Jeremy B; Millett, Christopher; Hayward, Rodney A

    2016-03-01

    The World Health Organization aims to reduce mortality from chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) by 25% by 2025. High blood pressure is a leading CVD risk factor. We sought to compare 3 strategies for treating blood pressure in China and India: a treat-to-target (TTT) strategy emphasizing lowering blood pressure to a target, a benefit-based tailored treatment (BTT) strategy emphasizing lowering CVD risk, or a hybrid strategy currently recommended by the World Health Organization. We developed a microsimulation model of adults aged 30 to 70 years in China and in India to compare the 2 treatment approaches across a 10-year policy-planning horizon. In the model, a BTT strategy treating adults with a 10-year CVD event risk of ≥ 10% used similar financial resources but averted ≈ 5 million more disability-adjusted life-years in both China and India than a TTT approach based on current US guidelines. The hybrid strategy in the current World Health Organization guidelines produced no substantial benefits over TTT. BTT was more cost-effective at $205 to $272/disability-adjusted life-year averted, which was $142 to $182 less per disability-adjusted life-year than TTT or hybrid strategies. The comparative effectiveness of BTT was robust to uncertainties in CVD risk estimation and to variations in the age range analyzed, the BTT treatment threshold, or rates of treatment access, adherence, or concurrent statin therapy. In model-based analyses, a simple BTT strategy was more effective and cost-effective than TTT or hybrid strategies in reducing mortality. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  19. Population-based screening program for reducing oral cancer mortality in 2,334,299 Taiwanese cigarette smokers and/or betel quid chewers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Shu-Lin; Su, William Wang-Yu; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Wang, Cheng-Ping; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Lee, Yi-Chia; Chiu, Han-Mo; Chang, Dun-Cheng; Jou, Yann-Yuh; Wu, Chien-Yuan; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Mu-Kuan; Chiou, Shu-Ti

    2017-05-01

    To reduce oral cancer mortality, an organized, population-based screening program for the early detection of oral premalignancy and oral cancer was designed for high-risk individuals with habits of betel quid chewing, cigarette smoking, or both. The objective of this report was to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of this program in reducing the incidence of advanced disease and deaths from oral cancer. A nationwide, population-based screening program for oral cancer has been conducted in Taiwan since 2004. Residents aged ≥ 18 years with oral habits of cigarette smoking and/or betel quid chewing were invited. The standardized mortality ratio method was used to compare the observed numbers of advanced oral cancers and deaths from oral cancer among screening attendees with the expected numbers derived from mortality among nonattendees. An intention-to-treat analysis of the relative rate of reductions in advanced-stage oral cancers and oral cancer mortality also was conducted. The overall screening rate was 55.1%. The relative risk of death from oral cancer was 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.56) as a result of screening compared with the expected risk of oral cancer deaths in the absence of screening. The corresponding relative risk was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.77) after adjusting for self-selection bias. The relative risk of advanced oral cancer for the screened group versus the nonscreened group was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.64), which increased to 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.82) after adjustment for self-selection bias. An organized, population-based oral cancer screening program targeting more than 2 million Taiwanese cigarette smokers and/or betel quid chewers demonstrated the effectiveness of reducing stage III or IV oral cancers and oral cancer mortality. These evidence-based findings corroborate and support the screening strategy of oral visual inspection for the prevention of oral cancer among high-risk individuals in areas with a high incidence of oral

  20. Trichloroethylene Is Associated with Kidney Cancer Mortality: A Population-based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanee, Shaheen; Clemons, Joseph; Zahnd, Whitney; Sadowski, Daniel; Dynda, Danuta

    2015-07-01

    To examine the association between the distribution of trichloroethylene (TCE) exposure and mortality from kidney cancer (Kca) across United States counties. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the association of TCE discharges from industrial sites and age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for Kca during 2005 through 2010, controlling for confounders. A total of 163 counties were included in analysis. We observed an excess risk of Kca mortality associated with higher amounts of environmental TCE releases. A significant dose-response relationship was observed between TCE releases and Kca mortality in females. Smoking, education, income, hypertension, and obesity were significant predictors of incidence and mortality, consistent with previous research on the epidemiology of Kca. TCE exposure may increase the risk of mortality from Kca, an association not highlighted before. There is a need for policy measures to limit TCE discharge to the environment if these results are validated. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  1. Mortality and life expectancy of people with alcohol use disorder in Denmark, Finland and Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westman, J; Wahlbeck, K; Laursen, T M

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To analyse mortality and life expectancy in people with alcohol use disorder in Denmark, Finland and Sweden. METHOD: A population-based register study including all patients admitted to hospital diagnosed with alcohol use disorder (1 158 486 person-years) from 1987 to 2006 in Denmark......, Finland and Sweden. RESULTS: Life expectancy was 24-28 years shorter in people with alcohol use disorder than in the general population. From 1987 to 2006, the difference in life expectancy between patients with alcohol use disorder and the general population increased in men (Denmark, 1.8 years; Finland......, 2.6 years; Sweden, 1.0 years); in women, the difference in life expectancy increased in Denmark (0.3 years) but decreased in Finland (-0.8 years) and Sweden (-1.8 years). People with alcohol use disorder had higher mortality from all causes of death (mortality rate ratio, 3.0-5.2), all diseases...

  2. Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and diabetes mortality in the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Chris C; Hayes, Richard B; Ahn, Jiyoung; Shao, Yongzhao; Silverman, Debra T; Jones, Rena R; Garcia, Cynthia; Thurston, George D

    2018-05-17

    Recent mechanistic and epidemiological evidence implicates air pollution as a potential risk factor for diabetes; however, mortality risks have not been evaluated in a large US cohort assessing exposures to multiple pollutants with detailed consideration of personal risk factors for diabetes. We assessed the effects of long-term ambient air pollution exposures on diabetes mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, a cohort of approximately a half million subjects across the contiguous U.S. The cohort, with a follow-up period between 1995 and 2011, was linked to residential census tract estimates for annual mean concentration levels of PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and O 3 . Associations between the air pollutants and the risk of diabetes mortality (N = 3598) were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for both individual-level and census-level contextual covariates. Diabetes mortality was significantly associated with increasing levels of both PM 2.5 (HR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03-1.39 per 10 μg/m 3 ) and NO 2 (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01-1.18 per 10 ppb). The strength of the relationship was robust to alternate exposure assessments and model specifications. We also observed significant effect modification, with elevated mortality risks observed among those with higher BMI and lower levels of fruit consumption. We found that long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and NO 2 , but not O 3 , is related to increased risk of diabetes mortality in the U.S, with attenuation of adverse effects by lower BMI and higher fruit consumption, suggesting that air pollution is involved in the etiology and/or control of diabetes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A prospective study of frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals and subsequent 9-year risk of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality in US adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashima K Kant

    Full Text Available Restaurant prepared foods are known to be energy-dense and high in fat and sodium, but lower in protective nutrients. There is evidence of higher risk of adiposity, type II diabetes, and heart disease in frequent consumers of restaurant meals. However, the risk of mortality as a long-term health consequence of frequent consumption of restaurant meals has not been examined. We examined the prospective risk of all-cause and coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic mortality in relation to frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals in a national cohort. We used frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals information collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, conducted from 1999-2004, with mortality follow-up completed through Dec. 31, 2011 (baseline age ≥ 40y; n = 9107. We estimated the relative hazard of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality associated with weekly frequency of eating restaurant meals using Cox-proportional hazards regression methods to adjust for multiple covariates. All analyses accounted for complex survey design and included sample weights. Over 33% of all respondents reported eating ≥3 restaurant prepared meals/week. In this cohort, 2200 deaths due to all causes and 665 cardiometabolic deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 9 years. The covariate-adjusted hazard ratio of all cause or cardiometabolic mortality in men and women reporters of 0.05. The results were robust to effect modification by baseline BMI, years of education, and baseline morbidity. Expectedly, the 24-h dietary intakes of whole grains, fruits, dietary fiber, folate, vitamin C, potassium and magnesium at baseline were lower, but energy, energy density, and energy from fat were higher in more frequent restaurant meal reporters (P<0.05. Baseline serum HDL cholesterol, folate, and some carotenoids were inversely associated with the frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals (P<0

  4. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  5. Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

    2013-06-01

    Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. Urban, tertiary academic medical center. All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other

  6. Risk and mortality of traumatic brain injury in stroke patients: two nationwide cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Yi-Chun; Yeh, Chun-Chieh; Hu, Chaur-Jong; Meng, Nai-Hsin; Chiu, Wen-Ta; Chou, Wan-Hsin; Chen, Ta-Liang; Liao, Chien-Chang

    2014-01-01

    Patients with stroke had higher incidence of falls and hip fractures. However, the risk of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and post-TBI mortality in patients with stroke was not well defined. Our study is to investigate the risk of TBI and post-TBI mortality in patients with stroke. Using reimbursement claims from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of 7622 patients with stroke and 30 488 participants without stroke aged 20 years and older as reference group. Data were collected on newly developed TBI after stroke with 5 to 8 years' follow-up during 2000 to 2008. Another nested cohort study including 7034 hospitalized patients with TBI was also conducted to analyze the contribution of stroke to post-TBI in-hospital mortality. Compared with the nonstroke cohort, the adjusted hazard ratio of TBI risk among patients with stroke was 2.80 (95% confidence interval = 2.58-3.04) during the follow-up period. Patients with stroke had higher mortality after TBI than those without stroke (10.2% vs 3.2%, P stroke (RR = 1.60), hemorrhagic stroke (RR = 1.68), high medical expenditure for stroke (RR = 1.80), epilepsy (RR = 1.79), neurosurgery (RR = 1.94), and hip fracture (RR = 2.11) were all associated with significantly higher post-TBI mortality among patients with stroke. Patients with stroke have an increased risk of TBI and in-hospital mortality after TBI. Various characteristics of stroke severity were all associated with higher post-TBI mortality. Special attention is needed to prevent TBI among these populations.

  7. What diagnoses may make patients more seriously ill than they first appear? Mortality according to the Simple Clinical Score Risk Class at the time of admission compared to the observed mortality of different ICD9 codes identified on death or discharge.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, John

    2009-01-01

    The Simple Clinical Score (SCS) determined at the time of admission places acutely ill general medical patients into one of five risk classes associated with an increasing risk of death within 30 days. The cohort of acute medical patient that the SCS was derived from had, on average, four combinations of 74 groupings of ICD9 codes. This paper reports the ICD9 codes associated with the different SCS risk classes and identifies those ICD9 codes with a greater observed mortality than that of other patients in the same SCS risk class.

  8. Uric acid as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality in overweight/obese individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helle Skak-Nielsen

    Full Text Available The predictive value of serum uric acid (SUA for adverse cardiovascular events among obese and overweight patients is not known, but potentially important because of the relation between hyperuricaemia and obesity.The relationship between SUA and risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality, respectively, was evaluated in a post-hoc analysis of the Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT trial. Participants enrolled in SCOUT were obese or overweight with pre-existing diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease (CVD. Cox models were used to assess the role of SUA as an independent risk factor.9742 subjects were included in the study; 83.6% had diabetes, and 75.1% had CVD. During an average follow-up time of 4.2 years, 1043 subjects had a primary outcome (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, or cardiovascular death, and 816 died. In a univariate Cox model, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes compared with the lowest SUA quartile in women (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.10. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors the increased risk for the highest SUA quartile was no longer statistically significant among women (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.72-1.36 nor was it among men. Analyses of all-cause mortality found an interaction between sex and SUA. In a multivariate Cox model including women only, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk in all-cause mortality compared to the lowest SUA quartile (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08-2.12. No relationship was observed in men (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.82-1.36.SUA was not an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease and death in these high-risk overweight/obese people. However, our results suggested that SUA was an independent predictor of all

  9. 42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... that are used in the development and application of a risk adjustment payment model. (b) Data... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PROGRAM Payments to Medicare Advantage Organizations § 422... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may...

  10. Lung, liver and bone cancer mortality after plutonium exposure in beagle dogs and nuclear workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Dulaney A; Mohr, Lawrence C; Frey, G Donald; Lackland, Daniel; Hoel, David G

    2010-01-01

    The Mayak Production Association (MPA) worker registry has shown evidence of plutonium-induced health effects. Workers were potentially exposed to plutonium nitrate [(239)Pu(NO(3))(4)] and plutonium dioxide ((239)PuO(2)). Studies of plutonium-induced health effects in animal models can complement human studies by providing more specific data than is possible in human observational studies. Lung, liver, and bone cancer mortality rate ratios in the MPA worker cohort were compared to those seen in beagle dogs, and models of the excess relative risk of lung, liver, and bone cancer mortality from the MPA worker cohort were applied to data from life-span studies of beagle dogs. The lung cancer mortality rate ratios in beagle dogs are similar to those seen in the MPA worker cohort. At cumulative doses less than 3 Gy, the liver cancer mortality rate ratios in the MPA worker cohort are statistically similar to those in beagle dogs. Bone cancer mortality only occurred in MPA workers with doses over 10 Gy. In dogs given (239)Pu, the adjusted excess relative risk of lung cancer mortality per Gy was 1.32 (95% CI 0.56-3.22). The liver cancer mortality adjusted excess relative risk per Gy was 55.3 (95% CI 23.0-133.1). The adjusted excess relative risk of bone cancer mortality per Gy(2) was 1,482 (95% CI 566.0-5686). Models of lung cancer mortality based on MPA worker data with additional covariates adequately described the beagle dog data, while the liver and bone cancer models were less successful.

  11. Inpatient mortality rates during an era of increased access to HIV testing and ART: A prospective observational study in Lilongwe, Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matoga, Mitch M; Rosenberg, Nora E; Stanley, Christopher C; LaCourse, Sylvia; Munthali, Charles K; Nsona, Dominic P; Haac, Bryce; Hoffman, Irving; Hosseinipour, Mina C

    2018-01-01

    In the era of increased access to HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment (ART), the impact of HIV and ART status on inpatient mortality in Malawi is unknown. We prospectively followed adult inpatients at Kamuzu Central Hospital medical wards in Lilongwe, Malawi, between 2011 and 2012, to evaluate causes of mortality, and the impact of HIV and ART status on mortality. We divided the study population into five categories: HIV-negative, new HIV-positive, ART-naïve patients, new ART-initiators, and ART-experienced. We used multivariate binomial regression models to compare risk of death between categories. Among 2911 admitted patients the mean age was 38.5 years, and 50% were women. Eighty-one percent (81%) of patients had a known HIV status at the time of discharge or death. Mortality was 19.4% and varied between 13.9% (HIV-negative patients) and 32.9% (HIV-positive patients on ART ≤1 year). In multivariable analyses adjusted for age, sex and leading causes of mortality, being new HIV-positive (RR = 1.64 95% CI: 1.16-2.32), ART-naive (RR = 2.28 95% CI: 1.66-2.32) or being a new ART-initiator (RR = 2.41 95% CI: 1.85-3.14) were associated with elevated risk of mortality compared to HIV-negative patients. ART-experienced patients had comparable mortality (RR = 1.33 95% CI: 0.94-1.88) to HIV-negative patients. HIV related mortality remains high among medical inpatients, especially among HIV-positive patients who recently initiated ART or have not started ART yet.

  12. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  13. Structured settlement annuities, part 2: mortality experience 1967--95 and the estimation of life expectancy in the presence of excess mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, R B; Schmidt, C J

    2000-01-01

    the mortality experience for structured settlement (SS) annuitants issued both standard (Std) and substandard (SStd) has been reported twice previously by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), but the 1995 mortality described here has not previously been published. We describe in detail the 1995 SS mortality, and we also discuss the methodology of calculating life expectancy (e), contrasting three different life-table models. With SOA permission, we present in four tables the unpublished results of its 1995 SS mortality experience by Std and SStd issue, sex, and a combination of 8 age and 6 duration groups. Overall results on mortality expected from the 1983a Individual Annuity Table showed a mortality ratio (MR) of about 140% for Std cases and about 650% for all SStd cases. Life expectancy in a group with excess mortality may be computed by either adding the decimal excess death rate (EDR) to q' for each year of attained age to age 109 or multiplying q' by the decimal MR for each year to age 109. An example is given for men age 60 with localized prostate cancer; annual EDRs from a large published cancer study are used at duration 0-24 years, and the last EDR is assumed constant to age 109. This value of e is compared with e from constant initial values of EDR or MR after the first year. Interrelations of age, sex, e, and EDR and MR are discussed and illustrated with tabular data. It is shown that a constant MR for life-table calculation of e consistently overestimates projected annual mortality at older attained ages and underestimates e. The EDR method, approved for reserve calculations, is also recommended for use in underwriting conversion tables.

  14. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  15. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  16. Use of quinine and mortality-risk in patients with heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjesing, Anne; Gislason, Gunnar H.; Christensen, Stefan B.

    2015-01-01

    included, with 14 510 patients (11%) using quinine at some point. During a median time of follow-up of 989 days (interquartile range 350-2004) 88 878 patients (66%) died. Patients receiving quinine had slightly increased mortality risk, adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI......PURPOSE: Leg cramps are common in patients with heart failure. Quinine is frequently prescribed in low doses to these patients, but safety of this practice is unknown. We studied the outcomes associated with use of quinine in a nationwide cohort of patients with heart failure. METHODS: Through...... individual-level-linkage of Danish national registries, we identified patients discharged from first-time hospitalization for heart failure in 1997-2010. We estimated the risk of mortality associated with quinine treatment by time-dependent Poisson regression models. RESULTS: A total of 135 529 patients were...

  17. Sugars and risk of mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasevska, Natasha; Park, Yikyung; Jiao, Li; Hollenbeck, Albert; Subar, Amy F; Potischman, Nancy

    2014-05-01

    Although previous studies have linked intake of sugars with incidence of cancer and other chronic diseases, its association with mortality remains unknown. We investigated the association of total sugars, added sugars, total fructose, added fructose, sucrose, and added sucrose with the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other-cause mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. The participants (n = 353,751), aged 50-71 y, were followed for up to 13 y. Intake of individual sugars over the previous 12 mo was assessed at baseline by using a 124-item NIH Diet History Questionnaire. In fully adjusted models (fifth quartile compared with first quartile), all-cause mortality was positively associated with the intake of total sugars [HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.06, 1.20); P-trend sugars (P-trend = 0.04), sucrose (P-trend = 0.03), and added sucrose (P-trend = 0.006). Investigation of consumption of sugars by source showed that the positive association with mortality risk was confined only to sugars from beverages, whereas the inverse association was confined to sugars from solid foods. In this large prospective study, total fructose intake was weakly positively associated with all-cause mortality in both women and men, whereas added sugar, sucrose, and added sucrose intakes were inversely associated with other-cause mortality in men. In our analyses, intake of added sugars was not associated with an increased risk of mortality. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015.

  18. Temporal Discounting Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality among Community-Based Older Persons without Dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A Boyle

    Full Text Available Temporal discounting is an important determinant of many health and financial outcomes, but we are not aware of studies that have examined the association of temporal discounting with mortality.Participants were 406 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Temporal discounting was measured using standard preference elicitation questions. Individual discount rates were estimated using a well-established hyperbolic function and used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 5 years of follow-up.The mean estimate of discounting was 0.45 (SD = 0.33, range: 0.08-0.90, with higher scores indicating a greater propensity to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger but delayed ones. During up to 5 years of follow-up (mean = 3.6 years, 62 (15% of 406 persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, temporal discounting was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.103, 95% CI 1.024, 1.190, p = 0.010. Thus, a person with the highest discount rate (score = 0.90 was about twice more likely to die over the study period compared to a person with the lowest discount rate (score = 0.08. Further, the association of discounting with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of global cognitive function, the burden of vascular risk factors and diseases, and an indicator of psychological well being (i.e., purpose in life.Temporal discounting is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age after accounting for global cognitive function and indicators of physical and mental health.

  19. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

  20. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall P. Ellis

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems.

  1. Does Physical Activity Increase Life Expectancy? A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Reimers

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Physical activity reduces many major mortality risk factors including arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus type 2, dyslipidemia, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cancer. All-cause mortality is decreased by about 30% to 35% in physically active as compared to inactive subjects. The purpose of this paper was to synthesize the literature on life expectancy in relation to physical activity. A systematic PubMed search on life expectancy in physically active and inactive individuals was performed. In addition, articles comparing life expectancy of athletes compared to that of nonathletes were reviewed. Results of 13 studies describing eight different cohorts suggest that regular physical activity is associated with an increase of life expectancy by 0.4 to 6.9 years. Eleven studies included confounding risk factors for mortality and revealed an increase in life expectancy by 0.4 to 4.2 years with regular physical activity. Eleven case control studies on life expectancy in former athletes revealed consistently greater life expectancy in aerobic endurance athletes but inconsistent results for other athletes. None of these studies considered confounding risk factors for mortality. In conclusion, while regular physical activity increases life expectancy, it remains unclear if high-intensity sports activities further increase life expectancy.

  2. Dysthymia and depression increase risk of dementia and mortality among older veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, Amy L; Covinsky, Kenneth E; Barnes, Deborah E; Yaffe, Kristine

    2012-08-01

    To determine whether less severe depression spectrum diagnoses such as dysthymia, as well as depression, are associated with risk of developing dementia and mortality in a "real-world" setting. Retrospective cohort study conducted using the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) National Patient Care Database (1997-2007). VA medical centers in the United States. A total of 281,540 veterans aged 55 years and older without dementia at study baseline (1997-2000). Depression status and incident dementia were ascertained from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes during study baseline (1997-2000) and follow-up (2001-2007), respectively. Mortality was ascertained by time of death dates in the VA Vital Status File. Ten percent of veterans had baseline diagnosis of depression and nearly 1% had dysthymia. The unadjusted incidence of dementia was 11.2% in veterans with depression, 10.2% with dysthymia and 6.4% with neither. After adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, patients diagnosed with dysthymia or depression were twice as likely to develop incident dementia compared with those with no dysthymia/depression (adjusted dysthymia hazard ratio [HR]: 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.71-2.25; and depression HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 2.08-2.28). Dysthymia and depression also were associated with increased risk of death (31.6% dysthymia and 32.9% depression versus 28.5% neither; adjusted dysthymia HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.31-1.53; and depression HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.43-1.51). Findings suggest that older adults with dysthymia or depression need to be monitored closely for adverse outcomes. Future studies should determine whether treatment of depression spectrum disorders may reduce risk of these outcomes.

  3. Clostridium Difficile Infection Due to Pneumonia Treatment: Mortality Risk Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewska, M; Zycinska, K; Lenartowicz, B; Hadzik-Błaszczyk, M; Cieplak, M; Kur, Z; Wardyn, K A

    2017-01-01

    One of the most common gastrointestinal infection after the antibiotic treatment of community or nosocomial pneumonia is caused by the anaerobic spore Clostridium difficile (C. difficile). The aim of this study was to retrospectively assess mortality due to C. difficile infection (CDI) in patients treated for pneumonia. We identified 94 cases of post-pneumonia CDI out of the 217 patients with CDI. The mortality issue was addressed by creating a mortality risk models using logistic regression and multivariate fractional polynomial analysis. The patients' demographics, clinical features, and laboratory results were taken into consideration. To estimate the influence of the preceding respiratory infection, a pneumonia severity scale was included in the analysis. The analysis showed two statistically significant and clinically relevant mortality models. The model with the highest prognostic strength entailed age, leukocyte count, serum creatinine and urea concentration, hematocrit, coexisting neoplasia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In conclusion, we report on two prognostic models, based on clinically relevant factors, which can be of help in predicting mortality risk in C. difficile infection, secondary to the antibiotic treatment of pneumonia. These models could be useful in preventive tailoring of individual therapy.

  4. Alcohol Abuse Increases Rebleeding Risk and Mortality in Patients with Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärkkäinen, Jussi M; Miilunpohja, Sami; Rantanen, Tuomo; Koskela, Jenni M; Jyrkkä, Johanna; Hartikainen, Juha; Paajanen, Hannu

    2015-12-01

    No current data are available on rebleeding and mortality risk in patients who use alcohol excessively and are admitted for non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). This information could help in planning interventions and follow-up protocols for these patients. This study provides contemporary data on the long-term outcome after first-time NVUGIB in alcohol abusers (AAs) compared to non-abusers (NAs). Consecutive patients hospitalized for their first acute gastrointestinal bleeding from 2009 through 2011 were retrospectively recorded and categorized as AA or NA. Risk factors for one-year mortality and rebleeding were identified, and patients were further monitored for long-term mortality until 2015. Alcohol abuse was identified in 19.7% of patients with NVUGIB (n = 518). The one-year rebleeding rate was 16.7% in AAs versus 9.1% in NAs (P = 0.027). Alcohol abuse was associated with a twofold increase in rebleeding risk (P = 0.025); the risk especially increased 6 months after the initial bleeding. The study groups did not differ significantly in 30-day (6.0%) or one-year mortality rates (20.5%). However, there was a tendency for higher overall mortality in AAs than NAs after adjustment of comorbidities. AAs with NVUGIB are at high risk of rebleeding, and mortality is increased in AA patients. A close follow-up strategy and long-term proton pump inhibitor therapy are recommended for AA patients with peptic ulcer or esophagitis.

  5. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Mortality study of nickel platers with special reference to cancers of the stomach and lung, 1945-93.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, D; Burges, D C; Sorahan, T

    1996-10-01

    To re-examine mortality patterns in a cohort of nickel platers with no history of chromium plating. All 284 men first employed by the company in 1945-75 with a minimum employment of three months in the nickel plating department were identified. Workers who had worked in the chromium plating or nickel/chromium plating departments were excluded. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), P values, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Poisson regression was used to carry out statistical modelling of mortalities within the cohort (internal standard). Four variables were considered to have the potential to influence mortality within the cohort: attained age (age at follow up or age at death), year of starting nickel work, period of follow up (measured from the first period of work with nickel exposure), and duration of exposure to nickel. The only significant difference between observed and expected numbers, when investigated by site of cancer and by broad non-cancer groupings, was that for stomach cancer (observed eight, expected 2.49, SMR 322). The study provides only weak evidence that nickel plating is associated with an excess risk of stomach cancer. This cohort of nickel platers does not seem to have experienced any discernible risk of occupational lung cancer. Other studies of nickel platers rather than nickel/chromium platers would be useful.

  7. Evaluation of the mortality standard of a miners cohort exposed to radon in an underground coal mining, Parana, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiga, Lene H.S.; Amaral, Eliana C.S.; Koifman, Sergio

    2005-01-01

    This study aims to to evaluate the possible health effects on workers in a underground coal mining that were exposed to radon and its decay products without the knowledge of the exposure risk. We established a historical cohort of workers in this mining which included 2856 workers, 1946 underground workers and 910 surface workers, and was carried out a retrospective tracking of mortality in this cohort between 1979 and 2002. Through multiple strategies for monitoring, involving several national institutions, was possible to trace the vital status of 92% of the cohort and 100% of the causes of deaths. The results showed that employees of underground coal mining in Parana had a risk of mortality from lung cancer higher than might be expected to the male population of the state of Parana, observing an increase in risk with the time of underground service. However, this increase in mortality from lung cancer was not observed for surface workers. Among several carcinogenic agents present in the mine environment, radon gas and its decay products can be identified as the major cause for this increase in risk of lung cancer for these workers, once other epidemiological studies in coal mining, which have no risk of exposure to radon, do not present an increased of mortality risk from lung cancer

  8. Anti-Gay Prejudice and All-Cause Mortality Among Heterosexuals in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellatorre, Anna; Muennig, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We determined whether individuals who harbor antigay prejudice experience elevated mortality risk. Methods. Data on heterosexual sexual orientation (n = 20 226, aged 18–89 years), antigay attitudes, and mortality risk factors came from the General Social Survey, which was linked to mortality data from the National Death Index (1988–2008). We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine whether antigay prejudice was associated with mortality risk among heterosexuals. Results. Heterosexuals who reported higher levels of antigay prejudice had higher mortality risk than those who reported lower levels (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.42), with control for multiple risk factors for mortality, including demographics, socioeconomic status, and fair or poor self-rated health. This result translates into a life expectancy difference of approximately 2.5 years (95% CI = 1.0, 4.0 years) between individuals with high versus low levels of antigay prejudice. Furthermore, in sensitivity analyses, antigay prejudice was specifically associated with increased risk of cardiovascular-related causes of death in fully adjusted models (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.60). Conclusions. The findings contribute to a growing body of research suggesting that reducing prejudice may improve the health of both minority and majority populations. PMID:24328664

  9. Risk factors and mortality for nosocomial bloodstream infections in elderly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reunes, S; Rombaut, V; Vogelaers, D; Brusselaers, N; Lizy, C; Cankurtaran, M; Labeau, S; Petrovic, M; Blot, S

    2011-10-01

    To determine risk factors for nosocomial bloodstream infection (BSI) and associated mortality in geriatric patients in geriatric and internal medicine wards at a university hospital. Single-center retrospective (1992-2007), pairwise-matched (1:1-ratio) cohort study. Geriatric patients with nosocomial BSI were matched with controls without BSI on year of admission and length of hospitalization before onset of BSI. Demographic, microbiological, and clinical data are collected. One-hundred forty-two BSI occurred in 129 patients. Predominant microorganisms were Escherichia coli (23.2%), coagulase-negative Staphylococci (19.4%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (8.4%), Staphylococcus aureus (7.1%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (5.8%) and Candida spp. (5.8%). Matching was successful for 109 cases. Compared to matched control subjects, cases were more frequently female, suffered more frequently from arthrosis, angina pectoris and pressure ulcers, had worse Activities of Daily Living-scores, had more often an intravenous or bladder catheter, and were more often bedridden. Logistic regression demonstrated presence of an intravenous catheter (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-22.9) and being bedridden (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.6-5.3) as independent risk factors for BSI. In univariate analysis nosocomial BSI was associated with increased mortality (22.0% vs. 11.0%; P=0.029). After adjustment for confounding co-variates, however, nosocomial BSI was not associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% CI 0.6-2.6). Being bedridden and increasing age were independent risk factors for death. Intravenous catheters and being bedridden are the main risk factors for nosocomial BSI. Although associated with higher mortality, this infectious complication seems not to be an independent risk factor for death in geriatric patients. Copyright © 2011 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality among community-dwelling older persons without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2013-01-01

    Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD = 2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean = 1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.07-1.32, p = 0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score = 3, 10th percentile) was about 4 times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score = 11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-08

    Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation

  12. Lower Education Level Is a Risk Factor for Peritonitis and Technique Failure but Not a Risk for Overall Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis under Comprehensive Training System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyo Jin; Lee, Joongyub; Park, Miseon; Kim, Yuri; Lee, Hajeong; Kim, Dong Ki; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Yon Su; Cho, Eun Jin; Ahn, Curie; Oh, Kook-Hwan

    2017-01-01

    Lower education level could be a risk factor for higher peritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated peritonitis, potentially resulting in technique failure. This study evaluated the influence of lower education level on the development of peritonitis, technique failure, and overall mortality. Patients over 18 years of age who started PD at Seoul National University Hospital between 2000 and 2012 with information on the academic background were enrolled. Patients were divided into three groups: middle school or lower (academic year≤9, n = 102), high school (912, n = 324). Outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models and competing risk regression. A total of 655 incident PD patients (60.9% male, age 48.4±14.1 years) were analyzed. During follow-up for 41 (interquartile range, 20-65) months, 255 patients (38.9%) experienced more than one episode of peritonitis, 138 patients (21.1%) underwent technique failure, and 78 patients (11.9%) died. After adjustment, middle school or lower education group was an independent risk factor for peritonitis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.36; P = 0.015) and technique failure (adjusted HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10-3.18; P = 0.038), compared with higher than high school education group. However, lower education was not associated with increased mortality either by as-treated (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.53-2.33; P = 0.788) or intent-to-treat analysis (P = 0.726). Although lower education was a significant risk factor for peritonitis and technique failure, it was not associated with increased mortality in PD patients. Comprehensive training and multidisciplinary education may overcome the lower education level in PD.

  13. Risk factors for mortality among malnourished HIV-infected adults eligible for antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woodd, Susannah L; Kelly, Paul; Koethe, John R

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of HIV-infected adults starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa are malnourished. We aimed to increase understanding of the factors affecting their high mortality, particularly in the high-risk period before ART initiation. METHODS: We...... weeks of ART (66; 95 % CI 57, 76) and was not affected by trial study arm. In adjusted analyses, lower CD4 count, BMI and mid-arm circumference and raised C-reactive protein were associated with an increased risk of mortality throughout the study. Male sex and lower hand-grip strength carried...... deaths represent advanced HIV disease rather than treatment-related events. Therefore, more efforts are needed to promote earlier diagnosis and immediate initiation of ART, as recently recommended by WHO for all persons with HIV worldwide. The positive effect of tuberculosis treatment suggests...

  14. Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

    2017-01-01

    The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

  15. Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Guillot

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the existence of tempo effects in mortality and evaluates the procedure developed by Bongaarts and Feeney for calculating a tempo-adjusted life expectancy. It is shown that Bongaarts and Feeney's index can be interpreted as an indicator reflecting current mortality conditions under specific assumptions regarding the effects of changing period mortality conditions on the timing of future cohort deaths. It is argued, however, that currently there is no clear evidence about the existence of such effects in actual populations. This paper concludes that until the existence of these effects can be demonstrated, it is preferable to continue using the conventional life expectancy as an indicator of current mortality conditions.

  16. Cancer mortality risk of nuclear power workers due to the exposure of ionising radiation in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehringer, F.; Seitz, G.; Hammer, G.P.; Blettner, M.

    2006-01-01

    A cohort study of German nuclear power workers was set up to investigate overall and cancer mortality risk related to a chronic exposure to ionising radiation of low-level dose. The German study was performed as a part of an international study carried out by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon. First results of the international study have been published recently [1]. German data are not yet included in this analysis. The German cohort consists of 4844 employees from 10 nuclear power plants. All persons who worked in these nuclear power plants in 1991 or started employment between 1991 und 1997 are included (except for employees of one plant, whose observation period started in 1992). These persons accumulated about 31,000 person years. Overall, 68 deaths were observed in the observation period between 1.1.1991-31.12.1997. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were computed for all causes of death, all cancers, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, and all other causes. Overall, a strong healthy worker effect was observed (SMR=0.52 [95% CI: 0.41;0.67]). No increase in total cancer mortality was seen (SMR=0.85 [95% CI: 0.53;1.30]). However, numbers are too small for stable risk estimates and further effort is under way to complete the cohort in terms of power plants and to extend the follow-up until 2005. (authors)

  17. Cancer mortality risk of nuclear power workers due to the exposure of ionising radiation in Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehringer, F.; Seitz, G. [Berufsgenossenschaft der Feinmechanik und Elektrotechnik, Koln (Germany); Hammer, G.P.; Blettner, M. [Johannes Gutenberg-Universitat Mainz, Institut fur Medizinische Biometrie, Epidemiologie und Informatik des Klinikums (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    A cohort study of German nuclear power workers was set up to investigate overall and cancer mortality risk related to a chronic exposure to ionising radiation of low-level dose. The German study was performed as a part of an international study carried out by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon. First results of the international study have been published recently [1]. German data are not yet included in this analysis. The German cohort consists of 4844 employees from 10 nuclear power plants. All persons who worked in these nuclear power plants in 1991 or started employment between 1991 und 1997 are included (except for employees of one plant, whose observation period started in 1992). These persons accumulated about 31,000 person years. Overall, 68 deaths were observed in the observation period between 1.1.1991-31.12.1997. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were computed for all causes of death, all cancers, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, and all other causes. Overall, a strong healthy worker effect was observed (SMR=0.52 [95% CI: 0.41;0.67]). No increase in total cancer mortality was seen (SMR=0.85 [95% CI: 0.53;1.30]). However, numbers are too small for stable risk estimates and further effort is under way to complete the cohort in terms of power plants and to extend the follow-up until 2005. (authors)

  18. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn

    2013-01-01

    for older individuals. When non-CVD mortality was assumed unaffected by smoking status, the absolute risk reduction due to statin treatment ranged from 0.0% to 3.5%, whereas the gain in expected residual lifetime ranged from 3 to 11 months. Statin effectiveness increased for non-smokers and declined...... pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

  19. Mortality experience among Minnesota taconite mining industry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Elizabeth M; Alexander, Bruce H; MacLehose, Richard F; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Mandel, Jeffrey H

    2014-11-01

    To evaluate the mortality experience of Minnesota taconite mining industry workers. Mortality was evaluated between 1960 and 2010 in a cohort of Minnesota taconite mining workers employed by any of the seven companies in operation in 1983. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were estimated by comparing observed deaths in the cohort with expected frequencies in the Minnesota population. Standardised rate ratios (SRR) were estimated using an internal analysis to compare mortality by employment duration. The cohort included 31,067 workers with at least 1 year of documented employment. Among those, there were 9094 deaths, of which 949 were from lung cancer, and 30 from mesothelioma. Mortality from all causes was greater than expected in the Minnesota population (SMR=1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04). Mortality from lung cancer and mesothelioma was higher than expected with SMRs of 1.16 for lung cancer (95% CI 1.09 to 1.23) and 2.77 for mesothelioma (95% CI 1.87 to 3.96). Other elevated SMRs included those for cardiovascular disease (SMR=1.10, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.14), specifically for hypertensive heart disease (SMR=1.81, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.33) and ischemic heart disease (SMR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16). Results of the SRR analysis did not show variation in risk by duration of employment. This study provides evidence that taconite workers may be at increased risk for mortality from lung cancer, mesothelioma, and some cardiovascular disease. Occupational exposures during taconite mining operations may be associated with these increased risks, but non-occupational exposures may also be important contributors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Double jeopardy: interaction effects of marital and poverty status on the risk of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K R; Waitzman, N J

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that marital and poverty status interact in their effects on mortality risks beyond their main effects. This study examines the epidemiological bases for applying an additive rather than a multiplicative specification when testing for interaction between two discrete risk factors. We specifically predict that risks associated with being nonmarried and with being poor interact to produce mortality risks that are greater than each risk acting independently. The analysis is based on men and women who were ages 25-74 during the 1971-1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (NHANES I) and who were traced successfully in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study in 1982-1984. Overall, being both poor and nonmarried places nonelderly (ages 25-64) men, but not women, at risk of mortality greater than that expected from the main effects. This study shows that for all-cause mortality, marital and poverty status interact for men but less so for women; these findings exist when interaction is assessed with either a multiplicative or an additive standard. This difference is most pronounced for poor, widowed men and (to a lesser degree) poor, divorced men. For violent/accidental deaths among men, the interaction effects are large on the basis of an additive model. Weak main and interaction effects were detected for the elderly (age 65+).

  1. Mortality Risk Among Heart Failure Patients With Depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adelborg, Kasper; Schmidt, Morten; Sundbøll, Jens

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prevalence of depression is 4- to 5-fold higher in heart failure patients than in the general population. We examined the influence of depression on all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish medical registries, this nationwide population...... by left ventricular ejection fraction, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) for ≤35%, 0.98 (95% CI 0.81-1.18) for 36% to 49%, and 0.96 (95% CI 0.74-1.25) for ≥50%. Results were consistent after adjustment for alcohol abuse and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: A history of depression...... was an adverse prognostic factor for all-cause mortality in heart failure patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% but not for other heart failure patients....

  2. Educational differences in cardiovascular mortality: The role of shared family factors and cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjøllesdal, M K R; Ariansen, I; Mortensen, L H; Davey Smith, G; Næss, Ø

    2016-12-01

    To explore the confounding effects of early family factors shared by siblings and cardiovascular risk factors in midlife on the educational differences in mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data from national and regional health surveys in Norway (1974-2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study, the National Educational Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. The study population consisted of participants with at least one full sibling among the health survey participants ( n=271,310). Data were available on CVD risk factors, including weight, height, blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking. The hazards ratio (HR) of CVD mortality was 3.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.98-3.96) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The HRs were little altered in the within-sibship analyses. Adjusted for risk factors, the HR for CVD mortality in the cohort analyses was 2.05 (CI 1.77-2.37) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The respective HR in the within-sibship analyses was 2.46 (CI 1.48-2.24). Using a sibling design, we did not find that the association between education and CVD mortality was confounded by early life factors shared by siblings, but it was explained to a large extent by CVD risk factors. These results suggest that reducing levels of CVD risk factors could have the greatest effect on mortality in less well-educated people.

  3. Excess mortality in winter in Finnish intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinikainen, M; Uusaro, A; Ruokonen, E; Niskanen, M

    2006-07-01

    In the general population, mortality from acute myocardial infarctions, strokes and respiratory causes is increased in winter. The winter climate in Finland is harsh. The aim of this study was to find out whether there are seasonal variations in mortality rates in Finnish intensive care units (ICUs). We analysed data on 31,040 patients treated in 18 Finnish ICUs. We measured severity of illness with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores and intensity of care with therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) scores. We assessed mortality rates in different months and seasons and used logistic regression analysis to test the independent effect of various seasons on hospital mortality. We defined 'winter' as the period from December to February, inclusive. The crude hospital mortality rate was 17.9% in winter and 16.4% in non-winter, P = 0.003. Even after adjustment for case mix, winter season was an independent risk factor for increased hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.22, P = 0.005). In particular, the risk of respiratory failure was increased in winter. Crude hospital mortality was increased during the main holiday season in July. However, the severity of illness-adjusted risk of death was not higher in July than in other months. An increase in the mean daily TISS score was an independent predictor of increased hospital mortality. Severity of illness-adjusted hospital mortality for Finnish ICU patients is higher in winter than in other seasons.

  4. Reduced Lung Cancer Mortality With Lower Atmospheric Pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray M; Frutos, Aaron

    2018-01-01

    Research has shown that higher altitude is associated with lower risk of lung cancer and improved survival among patients. The current study assessed the influence of county-level atmospheric pressure (a measure reflecting both altitude and temperature) on age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in the contiguous United States, with 2 forms of spatial regression. Ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression models were used to evaluate the impact of climate and other selected variables on lung cancer mortality, based on 2974 counties. Atmospheric pressure was significantly positively associated with lung cancer mortality, after controlling for sunlight, precipitation, PM2.5 (µg/m 3 ), current smoker, and other selected variables. Positive county-level β coefficient estimates ( P atmospheric pressure were observed throughout the United States, higher in the eastern half of the country. The spatial regression models showed that atmospheric pressure is positively associated with age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates, after controlling for other selected variables.

  5. A low serum bicarbonate concentration as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae Ik Chang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIM: Metabolic acidosis is common in patients with chronic kidney disease and is associated with increased mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, this relationship has not yet been determined in peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. METHODS: This prospective observational study included a total of 441 incident patients who started PD between January 2000 and December 2005. Using time-averaged serum bicarbonate (TA-Bic levels, we aimed to investigate whether a low serum bicarbonate concentration can predict mortality in these patients. RESULTS: Among the baseline parameters, serum bicarbonate level was positively associated with hemoglobin level and residual glomerular filtration rate (GFR, while it was negatively associated with albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP levels, peritoneal Kt/V urea, and normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR in a multivariable linear regression analysis. During a median follow-up of 34.8 months, 149 deaths were recorded. After adjustment for age, diabetes, coronary artery disease, serum albumin, ferritin, CRP, residual GFR, peritoneal Kt/V urea, nPCR, and percentage of lean body mass, TA-Bic level was associated with a significantly decreased risk of mortality (HR per 1 mEq/L increase, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91; p < 0.001. In addition, compared to patients with a TA-Bic level of 24-26 mEq/L, those with a TA-Bic level < 22 and between 22-24 mEq/L conferred a 13.10- and 2.13-fold increased risk of death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that a low serum bicarbonate concentration is an independent risk factor for mortality in PD patients. This relationship between low bicarbonate levels and adverse outcome could be related to enhanced inflammation and a more rapid loss of RRF associated with metabolic acidosis. Large randomized clinical trials to correct acidosis are warranted to confirm our findings.

  6. Forced migration and mortality in the very long term: did perestroika affect death rates also in Finland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarela, Jan; Finnäs, Fjalar

    2009-08-01

    In this article, we analyze mortality rates of Finns born in areas that were ceded to the Soviet Union after World War II and from which the entire population was evacuated. These internally displaced persons are observed during the period 1971-2004 and compared with people born in the same region but on the adjacent side of the new border. We find that in the 1970s and 1980s, the forced migrants had mortality rates that were on par with those of people in the comparison group. In the late 1980s, the mortality risk of internally displaced men increased by 20% in relation to the expected time trend. This deviation, which manifests particularly in cardiovascular mortality, coincides with perestroika and the demise of the Soviet Union, which were events that resulted in an intense debate in civil society about restitution of the ceded areas. Because state actors were reluctant to engage, the debate declined after some few years, and after the mid-1990s, the death risk again approached the long-term trend. Our findings indicate that when internally displaced persons must adjust to situations for which appropriate coping behaviors are unknown, psychosocial stress might arise several decades after their evacuation.

  7. Leisure-time physical activity and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahti, Jouni; Holstila, Ansku; Lahelma, Eero; Rahkonen, Ossi

    2014-01-01

    Physical inactivity is a major public health problem associated with increased mortality risk. It is, however, poorly understood whether vigorous physical activity is more beneficial for reducing mortality risk than activities of lower intensity. The aim of this study was to examine associations of the intensity and volume of leisure-time physical activity with all-cause mortality among middle-aged women and men while considering sociodemographic and health related factors as covariates. Questionnaire survey data collected in 2000-02 among 40-60-year-old employees of the City of Helsinki (N = 8960) were linked with register data on mortality (74% gave permission to the linkage) providing a mean follow-up time of 12-years. The analysis included 6429 respondents (79% women). The participants were classified into three groups according to intensity of physical activity: low moderate, high moderate and vigorous. The volume of physical activity was classified into three groups according to tertiles. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality. During the follow up 205 participants died. Leisure-time physical activity was associated with reduced risk of mortality. After adjusting for covariates the vigorous group (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.34-0.86) showed a reduced risk of mortality compared with the low moderate group whereas for the high moderate group the reductions in mortality risk (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.48-1.08) were less clear. Adjusting for the volume of physical activity did not affect the point estimates. Higher volume of leisure-time physical activity was also associated with reduced mortality risk; however, adjusting for the covariates and the intensity of physical activity explained the differences. For healthy middle-aged women and men who engage in some physical activity vigorous exercise may provide further health benefits preventing premature deaths.

  8. Risk of mortality of node-negative, ER/PR/HER2 breast cancer subtypes in T1, T2, and T3 tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parise, Carol A; Caggiano, Vincent

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess differences in breast cancer-specific mortality within tumors of the same size when breast cancer was defined using the three tumor markers estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). We identified 104,499 cases of node-negative primary female invasive breast cancer from the California Cancer Registry. Tumor size was categorized as T1a, T1b, T1c, T2, and T3. Breast cancer was defined using ER, PR, and HER2. Kaplan-Meier Survival analysis was conducted and Cox Regression was used to compute the adjusted risk of mortality for the ER+/PR+/HER2+, ER-/PR-/HER2- (TNBC), and ER-/PR-/HER2+ (HER2-overexpressing) subtypes when compared with the ER+/PR+/HER2-. Separate models were computed for each tumor size. Unadjusted survival analysis showed that for all tumor sizes, the ER+/PR+ subtypes regardless of HER status have better breast cancer-specific survival than ER-/PR- subtypes. Subtype was not an important factor for risk of mortality for T1a tumors. The ER+/PR+/HER2+ subtype was only a risk for mortality in T1b tumors that were unadjusted for treatment. For all other tumor sizes, the ER+/PR+/HER2+ had the same mortality as the ER+/PR+/HER2- subtype regardless of adjustment for treatment. The HER2-overexpressing subtype had a higher risk of mortality than the ER+/PR+/HER2- subtype except for T1b tumors that were adjusted for treatment. For all tumor sizes, the TNBC had higher hazard ratios than all other subtypes. T1a tumors have the same risk of mortality regardless of ER/PR/HER2 subtype, and ER and PR negativity plays a stronger role in survival than HER2 positivity for tumors of all size.

  9. Relationship Between a Sepsis Intervention Bundle and In-Hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Real-World Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya A; Shea, Erica R; Shiboski, Stephen; Sullivan, Mary C; Gonzales, Ralph; Shimabukuro, David

    2017-08-01

    Sepsis is a systemic response to infection that can lead to tissue damage, organ failure, and death. Efforts have been made to develop evidence-based intervention bundles to identify and manage sepsis early in the course of the disease to decrease sepsis-related morbidity and mortality. We evaluated the relationship between a minimally invasive sepsis intervention bundle and in-hospital mortality using robust methods for observational data. We performed a retrospective cohort study at the University of California, San Francisco, Medical Center among adult patients discharged between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2014, and who received a diagnosis of severe sepsis/septic shock (SS/SS). Sepsis intervention bundle elements included measurement of blood lactate; drawing of blood cultures before starting antibiotics; initiation of broad spectrum antibiotics within 3 hours of sepsis presentation in the emergency department or 1 hour of presentation on an inpatient unit; administration of intravenous fluid bolus if the patient was hypotensive or had a lactate level >4 mmol/L; and starting intravenous vasopressors if the patient remained hypotensive after fluid bolus administration. Poisson regression for a binary outcome variable was used to estimate an adjusted incidence-rate ratio (IRR) comparing mortality in groups defined by bundle compliance measured as a binary predictor, and to estimate an adjusted number needed to treat (NNT). Complete bundle compliance was associated with a 31% lower risk of mortality (adjusted IRR, 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53-0.91), adjusting for SS/SS presentation in the emergency department, SS/SS present on admission (POA), age, admission severity of illness and risk of mortality, Medicaid/Medicare payor status, immunocompromised host status, and congestive heart failure POA. The adjusted NNT to save one life was 15 (CI, 8-69). Other factors independently associated with mortality included SS/SS POA (adjusted IRR, 0.55; CI, 0

  10. Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

    2013-05-24

    Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995-2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) "in-control" status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals

  11. Bone mineral density and mortality in elderly men and women: the Rotterdam Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Der Klift, M; Pols, H A P; Geleijnse, J M; Van Der Kuip, D A M; Hofman, A; De Laet, C E D H

    2002-04-01

    Recent studies have shown that a low bone mineral density (BMD) is associated with a higher risk of mortality. Most studies have investigated this relationship in women only and presented their risk estimates per standard deviation change in BMD. However, when using this approach, a BMD threshold might be missed when relative risks are presented in the traditional manner. Therefore, in this study our aim was to model the relation between BMD and all-cause mortality. In the Rotterdam Study, follow-up was complete for 5819 men and women aged > or =55 years for whom BMD data were available. During an average follow-up of 5.4 years, 399 men and 317 women died. We calculated BMD Z scores using measurements performed at the femoral neck. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to fit the model. An average BMD, reflected by a Z score = 0, was used as the reference. For women, no significant relationship between BMD and overall mortality was observed. For men, however, a cubic model best fitted the relationship under study, also after adjusting for age and body mass index (BMI). The risk of mortality increased when BMD was below average. Similar results were found when separate curves were made for diabetics and nondiabetics, smokers (ever or never), and tertiles of BMI. Excluding subjects who had suffered hip fractures, or adjusting for the number of drugs used and for lower limb disability, essentially did not change results. This suggests that low BMD is not mainly due to morbidity and impaired mobility in our cohort, which makes this a less likely explanation for the observed relation with mortality. The results of our study suggest that, in men, a nonlinear relationship between BMD and mortality exists, which is independent of comorbidity, whereas, in women, no significant relationship was observed.

  12. Serum Uric Acid and the Risk of Mortality During 23 Years Follow-up in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juraschek, Stephen P.; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Woodward, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Background Elevated uric acid is a prevalent condition with controversial health consequences. Observational studies disagree with regard to the relationship of uric acid with mortality, and with factors modifying this relationship. Objective We examined the association of serum uric acid with mortality in 15,083 participants in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) Study. Methods Serum uric acid measured at study enrollment. Death was ascertained using both the Scottish death register and record linkage. Results During a median follow-up of 23 years, there were 3,980 deaths. In Cox proportional hazards models with sexes combined, those in the highest fifth of uric acid had significantly greater mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.31) compared with the second fifth, after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. This relationship was modified by sex (P-interaction = 0.002) with adjusted HRs of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.40, 2.04) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.14) in women and men, respectively. Compared with the second fifth, the highest fifth of uric acid was most associated with kidney-related death (HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.31, 3.32). Conclusion Elevated uric acid is associated with earlier mortality, especially in women. Future studies should evaluate mechanisms for these interactions and explore the strong association with renal-related mortality. PMID:24534458

  13. Serum uric acid and the risk of mortality during 23 years follow-up in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juraschek, Stephen P; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Woodward, Mark

    2014-04-01

    Elevated uric acid is a prevalent condition with controversial health consequences. Observational studies disagree with regard to the relationship of uric acid with mortality, and with factors modifying this relationship. We examined the association of serum uric acid with mortality in 15,083 participants in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) Study. Serum uric acid was measured at study enrollment. Death was ascertained using both the Scottish death register and record linkage. During a median follow-up of 23 years, there were 3980 deaths. In Cox proportional hazards models with sexes combined, those in the highest fifth of uric acid had significantly greater mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.31) compared with the second fifth, after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. This relationship was modified by sex (P-interaction=0.002) with adjusted HRs of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.40, 2.04) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.14) in women and men, respectively. Compared with the second fifth, the highest fifth of uric acid was most associated with kidney-related death (HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.31, 3.32). Elevated uric acid is associated with earlier mortality, especially in women. Future studies should evaluate mechanisms for these interactions and explore the strong association with renal-related mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Sugars and risk of mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study1234

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasevska, Natasha; Park, Yikyung; Jiao, Li; Hollenbeck, Albert; Subar, Amy F; Potischman, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although previous studies have linked intake of sugars with incidence of cancer and other chronic diseases, its association with mortality remains unknown. Objective: We investigated the association of total sugars, added sugars, total fructose, added fructose, sucrose, and added sucrose with the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other-cause mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Design: The participants (n = 353,751), aged 50–71 y, were followed for up to 13 y. Intake of individual sugars over the previous 12 mo was assessed at baseline by using a 124-item NIH Diet History Questionnaire. Results: In fully adjusted models (fifth quartile compared with first quartile), all-cause mortality was positively associated with the intake of total sugars [HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.06, 1.20); P-trend sugars (P-trend = 0.04), sucrose (P-trend = 0.03), and added sucrose (P-trend = 0.006). Investigation of consumption of sugars by source showed that the positive association with mortality risk was confined only to sugars from beverages, whereas the inverse association was confined to sugars from solid foods. Conclusions: In this large prospective study, total fructose intake was weakly positively associated with all-cause mortality in both women and men, whereas added sugar, sucrose, and added sucrose intakes were inversely associated with other-cause mortality in men. In our analyses, intake of added sugars was not associated with an increased risk of mortality. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015. PMID:24552754

  15. Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelder Johannes C

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs. Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can

  16. Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundberg, Louise; Agahi, Neda; Fritzell, Johan; Fors, Stefan

    2018-04-13

    To enhance the understanding of the current increase in life expectancy and decreasing gender gap in life expectancy. We obtained data on underlying cause of death from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden for 1997 and 2014 and used Arriaga's method to decompose life expectancy by age group and 24 causes of death. Decreased mortality from ischemic heart disease had the largest impact on the increased life expectancy of both men and women and on the decreased gender gap in life expectancy. Increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease negatively influenced overall life expectancy, but because of higher female mortality, it also served to decrease the gender gap in life expectancy. The impact of other causes of death, particularly smoking-related causes, decreased in men but increased in women, also reducing the gap in life expectancy. This study shows that a focus on overall changes in life expectancies may hide important differences in age- and cause-specific mortality. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing modifiable lifestyle factors to reduce avoidable mortality.

  17. Household adjustment to flood risk: a survey of coastal residents in Texas and Florida, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Samuel D; Lee, Yoonjeong; Highfield, Wesley E

    2017-07-01

    Individual households have increasingly borne responsibility for reducing the adverse impacts of flooding on their property. Little observational research has been conducted, however, at the household level to examine the major factors contributing to the selection of a particular household adjustment. This study addresses the issue by evaluating statistically the factors influencing the adoption of various household flood hazard adjustments. The results indicate that respondents with higher-value homes or longer housing tenure are more likely to adopt structural and expensive techniques. In addition, the information source and the Community Rating System (CRS) score for the jurisdiction where the household is located have a significant bearing on household adjustment. In contrast, proximity to risk zones and risk perception yield somewhat mixed results or behave counter to assumptions in the literature. The study findings provide insights that will be of value to governments and decision-makers interested in encouraging homeowners to take protective action given increasing flood risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  18. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  19. Cardiovascular diseases mortality following cancer during childhood: long term risk, role of chemotherapy and of radiation dose to heart and brain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tukenova, Markhaba; Guibout, Catherine; Oberlin, Odile; Doyon, Francoise; Moussannif, Abdedaid; Haddy, Nadia; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vathaire, Florent de; Pacquement, Helene; Hawkins, Mike; Winter, Dave

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Background: A multi-centric French-UK cohort study was performed to evaluate the role of treatment in the long-term overall and cause-specific mortality among childhood cancer survivors. Methods: This study cohort included 4,120 patients treated for a solid tumours before the age of 17 between 1942-1986, in 8 centres in France and UK and who survived at least 5 years from diagnosis. Detailed clinical and therapeutic data were extracted for each patients from medical records. For 2868 of the 2868 patients who received radiotherapy, radiation doses were estimated using DOS E G software at 188 anatomical sites, including heart (7 sites) and lungs (10 sites). We obtained the death causes of 95 % of dead patients. Overall and cause-specific mortality standardized ratios (SMR), absolute excess risk (AER) of death were studied using Poisson regression. Results: 603 patients died during the follow-up, i.e. 8.5-fold (95 % CI: 7.7-9.1) more than that expected in the general population. A total of 32 patients died of cardiovascular diseases, i.e. 4.8-fold (95 % CI, 3.3 to 6.7) more than expected, 21 of which were cardiac diseases, i.e. 6.0-fold more (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.0). Overall, patients who had received radiotherapy had a 5.4-fold (95% CI, 1.5 to 32.1) higher risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease than those who had not. Mortality due to cardiac disease was related to the administration of alkylating agents and / or vinca alkaloids, and to that of anthracyclines. Each additional 100 mg of anthracyclines per m 2 of body surface area increased the mortality rate due to heart diseases by 92% (95% CI, 16% to 318%). Patients who had received between 5 to 14.9 Gy to the heart during radiotherapy had a 14.5-fold (95% CI, 2.0 to 291) higher risk of mortality from cardiac diseases than patients who had not received radiotherapy, this ratio being 32.6 (95% CI, 5.6 to 622) in those who had received more than 15 Gy. Conclusion: Childhood cancer survivors are at high

  20. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Lin Shang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

  1. Association of predialysis serum bicarbonate levels with risk of mortality and hospitalization in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Jürgen; Locatelli, Francesco; Satayathum, Sudtida; Keen, Marcia L; Goodkin, David A; Saito, Akira; Akiba, Takashi; Port, Friedrich K; Young, Eric W

    2004-10-01

    Experimental and some clinical data suggest that metabolic acidosis contributes to poor nutritional status, a strong predictor for mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, recent cross-sectional studies indicate that severe predialysis metabolic acidosis is associated with a greater normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) and greater serum albumin levels. Given this controversy, we analyzed data from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Pattern Study (DOPPS) for associations between predialysis serum bicarbonate and albumin concentrations, nPCR, and patient risk for mortality and hospitalization. Data from more than 7,000 representative and randomly selected hemodialysis DOPPS patients from France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States were analyzed. Serum bicarbonate (total CO2 ) levels predialysis were corrected to the midweek interdialytic interval. The midweek predialysis serum bicarbonate level averaged 21.9 mEq/L (mmol/L) and correlated inversely with nPCR, serum albumin, and serum phosphorus values. Before and after adjusting for 15 comorbidities, nutrition, and equilibrated Kt/V, a U-curve best represented the association between predialysis serum bicarbonate level and risk for mortality or hospitalization. Patients with midweek predialysis serum bicarbonate levels of 20.1 to 21.0 mEq/L (mmol/L) faced the lowest risk for mortality, whereas those with bicarbonate levels of 21.1 to 22.0 mEq/L faced the lowest risk for hospitalization. Both high (>27 mEq/L) and low (nutritional status and lower relative risk for mortality or hospitalization than is observed in patients with normal ranges of midweek predialysis serum bicarbonate concentration (approximately 24 mEq/L) or severe acidosis (<16 mEq/L).

  2. Dynapenic Abdominal Obesity Increases Mortality Risk among English and Brazilian Older Adults: A 10-Year Follow-Up of the ELSA and SABE Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Alexandre, T; Scholes, S; Ferreira Santos, J L; de Oliveira Duarte, Y A; de Oliveira, C

    2018-01-01

    There is little epidemiological evidence demonstrating that dynapenic abdominal obesity has higher mortality risk than dynapenia and abdominal obesity alone. Our main aim was to investigate whether dynapenia combined with abdominal obesity increases mortality risk among English and Brazilian older adults over ten-year follow-up. Cohort study. United Kingdom and Brazil. Data came from 4,683 individuals from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and 1,490 from the Brazilian Health, Well-being and Aging study (SABE), hence the final sample of this study was 6,173 older adults. The study population was categorized into the following groups: non-dynapenic/non-abdominal obese, abdominal obese, dynapenic, and dynapenic abdominal obese according to their handgrip strength ( 102 cm for men and > 88 cm for women). The outcome was all-cause mortality over a ten-year follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios by sociodemographic, behavioural and clinical characteristics were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. The fully adjusted model showed that dynapenic abdominal obesity has a higher mortality risk among the groups. The hazard ratios (HR) were 1.37 for dynapenic abdominal obesity (95% CI = 1.12 - 1.68), 1.15 for abdominal obesity (95% CI = 0.98 - 1.35), and 1.23 for dynapenia (95% CI = 1.04 - 1.45). Dynapenia is an important risk factor for mortality but dynapenic abdominal obesity has the highest mortality risk among English and Brazilian older adults.

  3. Daytime napping and mortality, with a special reference to cardiovascular disease: the JACC study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanabe, Naohito; Iso, Hiroyasu; Seki, Nao; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2010-02-01

    Daytime napping is associated with elevated risk of all-cause mortality in the elderly. However, the association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is inconsistent. From 1988 to 1990, a total of 67 129 Japanese non-workers or daytime workers (27 755 men and 39 374 women) aged 40-79 years, without a history of stroke, heart disease or cancer, completed a lifestyle questionnaire. They were followed for mortality until the end of 2003. During the 879 244 person-year follow-up, 9643 deaths (2852 from CVD, 3643 from cancer, 2392 from other internal causes, 738 from external causes and 18 from unspecified causes) were observed. After adjustment for possible confounders, subjects with a daytime napping habit had elevated hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality from all causes [HR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.24, P napping was diminished among overweight subjects, but pronounced in those with weight loss after age 20 years, with non-regular employment, with lower education level and with a follow-up period napping is associated with elevated risk of CVD mortality as well as non-cardiovascular/non-cancer and external deaths. Daytime napping may elevate risk of CVD death through some biological effects but, to a larger extent, some comorbid disorders causing weight loss or associated with non-regular employment and low education level could explain this association.

  4. Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Characterizing mortality in pediatric tracheostomy patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funamura, Jamie L; Yuen, Sonia; Kawai, Kosuke; Gergin, Ozgul; Adil, Eelam; Rahbar, Reza; Watters, Karen

    2017-07-01

    To assess the longitudinal risk of death following tracheostomy in the pediatric age group. Retrospective cohort study. Hospital records of 513 children (≤18 years) at a tertiary care children's hospital who underwent tracheostomy between 1984 and 2015 were reviewed. The primary outcome measure was time from tracheostomy to death. Secondary patient demographic and clinical characteristics were assessed, with likelihood of death using χ 2 tests and the Cox proportional hazards model. Median age at time of tracheostomy was 0.8 years (interquartile range, 0.3-5.2 years).The highest mortality rate (27.8%) was observed in patients in the 13- to 18-year-old age category; their mortality rate was significantly higher when compared to the lowest mortality risk group patients (age 1-4 years, P = .031). Timing of death was evenly distributed: 1 year after tracheostomy (35.3%). Patients who underwent tracheostomy for cardiopulmonary disease had an increased risk of mortality compared with airway obstruction (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.53, 95% confidence interval: 1.72-7.24, P tracheostomy have a high mortality rate, with an increased risk of death associated with a cardiopulmonary indication for undergoing tracheostomy. The majority of deaths occur after the index hospitalization during which the tracheostomy was performed. BPD and CHD are independent predictors of mortality in pediatric tracheostomy patients. 4 Laryngoscope, 127:1701-1706, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  6. Impact of HIV/AIDS mortality on South Africa's life expectancy and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study seeks to raise awareness and expand knowledge about the deleterious effect of HIV/AIDS mortality on South Africa's life expectancy, a country with a relatively high HIV/AIDS prevalence rate (19. percent). Using the multiple and associated single decrement life table techniques, the study estimates the total ...

  7. Mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score in growth restricted extremely preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamakawa, Takuji; Itabashi, Kazuo; Kusuda, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether the mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score (BWSDS) in growth restricted extremely preterm infants. This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study using the database of the Neonatal Research Network of Japan and including 9149 infants born between 2003 and 2010 at <28 weeks gestation. According to the BWSDSs, the infants were classified as: <-2.0, -2.0 to -1.5, -1.5 to -1.0, -1.0 to -0.5, and ≥-0.5. Infants with BWSDS≥-0.5 were defined as non-growth restricted group. After adjusting for covariates, the risks of mortality and some morbidities were different among the BWSDS groups. Compared with non-growth restricted group, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for mortality [aOR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-2.12] and chronic lung disease (CLD) (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.54) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -1.5 to <-1.0. The aOR for severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71) and sepsis (aOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.32-2.24) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -2.0 to <-1.5. The aOR for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) (aOR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.64-3.55) was increased at a BWSDS<-2.0. Being growth restricted extremely preterm infants confer additional risks for mortality and morbidities such as CLD, ROP, sepsis and NEC, and these risks may vary with BWSDS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

    2013-12-02

    To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectancy estimation including agreement analysis of life expectancy estimates and comparison of estimate SEs. Chiang II and Silcocks methods produced almost identical life expectancy estimates across a large range of population sizes but calculation failures and excessively large SEs limited their use in small populations. A population of 25 000 or greater was required to estimate life expectancy with SE of 1 year or less using adjusted Chiang II (a composite of Chiang II and Silcocks methods). Data aggregation offered some remedy for extending the use of adjusted Chiang II in small populations but reduced estimate currency. A recently developed Bayesian random effects model utilising the correlation in mortality rates between genders, age groups and geographical areas markedly improved the precision of life expectancy estimates in small populations. We propose a hybrid approach for the calculation of life expectancy using the Bayesian random effects model in populations of 25 000 or lower permitting the precise derivation of life expectancy in small populations. In populations above 25 000, we propose the use of adjusted Chiang II to guard against violations of spatial correlation, to benefit from a widely accepted method that is simpler to communicate to local health authorities and where its slight inferior performance compared with the Bayesian approach is of minor practical significance.

  9. Are sitting occupations associated with increased all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality risk? A pooled analysis of seven British population cohorts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Stamatakis

    Full Text Available There is mounting evidence for associations between sedentary behaviours and adverse health outcomes, although the data on occupational sitting and mortality risk remain equivocal. The aim of this study was to determine the association between occupational sitting and cardiovascular, cancer and all-cause mortality in a pooled sample of seven British general population cohorts.The sample comprised 5380 women and 5788 men in employment who were drawn from five Health Survey for England and two Scottish Health Survey cohorts. Participants were classified as reporting standing, walking or sitting in their work time and followed up over 12.9 years for mortality. Data were modelled using Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for age, waist circumference, self-reported general health, frequency of alcohol intake, cigarette smoking, non-occupational physical activity, prevalent cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline, psychological health, social class, and education.In total there were 754 all-cause deaths. In women, a standing/walking occupation was associated with lower risk of all-cause (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.89 and cancer (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.43-0.85 mortality, compared to sitting occupations. There were no associations in men. In analyses with combined occupational type and leisure-time physical activity, the risk of all-cause mortality was lowest in participants with non-sitting occupations and high leisure-time activity.Sitting occupations are linked to increased risk for all-cause and cancer mortality in women only, but no such associations exist for cardiovascular mortality in men or women.

  10. Coronary heart disease mortality after irradiation for Hodgkin's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boivin, J.F.; Hutchison, G.B.

    1982-01-01

    The authors conducted a study designed to evaluate the hypothesis that irradiation to the heart in the treatment for Hodgkin's disease (HD) is associated with increased coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. This report describes 957 patients diagnosed with HD in 1942-75 and analyzes follow-up findings through December 1977. Twenty-five coronary heart disease deaths have been observed, and 4258.2 person-years of experience at risk have been accrued. The relative death rate (RDR), defined as the CHD mortality for heart-irradiated subjects divided by the mortality for nonirradiated subjects, was estimated. After adjustment for the effect of interval of observation, age, stage, and class, the RDR estimate is 1.5 but does not differ significantly from unit

  11. Comparative risk of renal, cardiovascular, and mortality outcomes in controlled, uncontrolled resistant, and non-resistant hypertension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, John J.; Bhandari, Simran K.; Shi, Jiaxiao; Reynolds, Kristi; Calhoun, David A.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Jacobsen, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    We sought to compare the risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD), ischemic heart event (IHE), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), and all-cause mortality among 470,386 individuals with resistant and nonresistant hypertension (non-RH). Resistant hypertension (60,327 individuals) was sub-categorized into 2 groups; 23,104 patients with cRH (controlled on 4 or more medicines) and 37,223 patients with uRH (uncontrolled on 3 or more medicines) in a 5 year retrospective cohort study. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios adjusting for age, gender, race, body mass index, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and co-morbidities. Resistant hypertension (cRH and uRH) compared to non-RH, had multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.32 (1.27–1.37), 1.24 (1.20–1.28), 1.46 (1.40–1.52), 1.14 (1.10–1.19), and 1.06 (1.03–1.08) for ESRD, IHE, CHF, CVA, and mortality, respectively. Comparison of uRH to cRH had hazard ratios of 1.25 (1.18–1.33), 1.04 (0.99–1.10), 0.94 (0.89–1.01), 1.23 (1.14–1.31), and 1.01 (0.97–1.05) for ESRD, IHE, CHF, CVA, and mortality, respectively. Males and Hispanics had greater risk for ESRD within all 3 cohorts. Resistant hypertension had greater risk for ESRD, IHE, CHF, CVA, and mortality. The risk of ESRD and CVA and were 25% and 23% greater, respectively, in uRH compared to cRH supporting the linkage between blood pressure and both outcomes. PMID:25945406

  12. Physical Inactivity and Mortality Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kokkinos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years a plethora of epidemiologic evidence accumulated supports a strong, independent and inverse, association between physical activity and the fitness status of an individual and mortality in apparently healthy individuals and diseased populations. These health benefits are realized at relatively low fitness levels and increase with higher physical activity patterns or fitness status in a dose-response fashion. The risk reduction is at least in part attributed to the favorable effect of exercise or physical activity on the cardiovascular risk factors, namely, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and obesity. In this review, we examine evidence from epidemiologic and interventional studies in support of the association between exercise and physical activity and health. In addition, we present the exercise effects on the aforementioned risk factors. Finally, we include select dietary approaches and their impact on risk factors and overall mortality risk.

  13. Mortality and life expectancy in relation to long-term cigarette, cigar and pipe smoking: The Zutphen Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Streppel, M.T.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Ocké, M.C.; Kok, F.J.; Kromhout, D.

    2007-01-01

    Study objective: To study the effect of long-term smoking on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and to estimate the effects of cigarette and cigar or pipe smoking on life expectancy. Design: A long-term prospective cohort study. Setting: Zutphen, The Netherlands. Participants: 1373 men from the

  14. Excess Early Mortality in Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia is often referred to as one of the most severe mental disorders, primarily because of the very high mortality rates of those with the disorder. This article reviews the literature on excess early mortality in persons with schizophrenia and suggests reasons for the high mortality...... as well as possible ways to reduce it. Persons with schizophrenia have an exceptionally short life expectancy. High mortality is found in all age groups, resulting in a life expectancy of approximately 20 years below that of the general population. Evidence suggests that persons with schizophrenia may...... not have seen the same improvement in life expectancy as the general population during the past decades. Thus, the mortality gap not only persists but may actually have increased. The most urgent research agenda concerns primary candidates for modifiable risk factors contributing to this excess mortality...

  15. Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Alengordovich Korobitsyn

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer

  16. Dietary sodium content, mortality, and risk for cardiovascular events in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Murphy, Rachel A; Newman, Anne B; Bauer, Douglas C; Harris, Tamara B; Yang, Zhou; Applegate, William B; Kritchevsky, Stephen B

    2015-03-01

    100 mg/kg/m2 of daily sodium intake. In adjusted models accounting for the competing risk for death, sodium intake was not associated with risk for CVD (subHR per 1 g, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.95-1.11; P = .47) or HF (subHR per 1 g, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.92-1.08; P = .92). No consistent interactions with sex, race, or hypertensive status were observed for any outcome. In older adults, food frequency questionnaire-assessed sodium intake was not associated with 10-year mortality, incident CVD, or incident HF, and consuming greater than 2300 mg/d of sodium was associated with nonsignificantly higher mortality in adjusted models.

  17. Does educational status impact adult mortality in Denmark? A twin approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mia; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Christensen, Kaare

    2010-01-01

    -1935, and no effect modification by zygosity was observed. Hence, the results are most compatible with an effect of early family environment in explaining the educational inequality in mortality. However, large educational differences were still reflected in mortality risk differences within twin pairs, thus......To disentangle an independent effect of educational status on mortality risk from direct and indirect selection mechanisms, the authors used a discordant twin pair design, which allowed them to isolate the effect of education by means of adjustment for genetic and environmental confounding per...... 1980-2008. Both standard cohort and intrapair analyses were conducted separately for zygosity, gender, and birth cohort. Educational differences in mortality were demonstrated in the standard cohort analyses but attenuated in the intrapair analyses in all subgroups but men born during 1921...

  18. Variation in mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes in relation to high temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

    2013-01-01

    Outdoor temperature has been reported to have a significant influence on the seasonal variations of stroke mortality, but few studies have investigated the effect of high temperature on the mortality of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The main study goal was to examine the effect of temperature, particularly high temperature, on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. We investigated the association between outdoor temperature and stroke mortality in four metropolitan cities in Korea during 1992-2007. We used time series analysis of the age-adjusted mortality rate for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke deaths by using generalized additive and generalized linear models, and estimated the percentage change of mortality rate associated with a 1°C increase of mean temperature. The temperature-responses for the hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality differed, particularly in the range of high temperature. The estimated percentage change of ischemic stroke mortality above a threshold temperature was 5.4 % (95 % CI, 3.9-6.9 %) in Seoul, 4.1 % (95 % CI, 1.6-6.6 %) in Incheon, 2.3 % (-0.2 to 5.0 %) in Daegu and 3.6 % (0.7-6.6 %) in Busan, after controlling for daily mean humidity, mean air pressure, day of the week, season, and year. Additional adjustment of air pollution concentrations in the model did not change the effects. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality risk significantly decreased with increasing temperature without a threshold in the four cities after adjusting for confounders. These findings suggest that the mortality of hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes show different patterns in relation to outdoor temperature. High temperature was harmful for ischemic stroke but not for hemorrhagic stroke. The risk of high temperature to ischemic stroke did not differ by age or gender.

  19. Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweri, Juerg; Hartog, Joop; Wolter, Stefan C.

    2011-01-01

    We use a unique data set about the wage distribution that Swiss students expect for themselves ex ante, deriving parametric and non-parametric measures to capture expected wage risk. These wage risk measures are unfettered by heterogeneity which handicapped the use of actual market wage dispersion as risk measure in earlier studies. Students in…

  20. The risk mortality of the population of azerbaijan from circulatory diseases, depending on the season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Rzayeva

    2015-06-01

    Azerbaijan State Advanced Training Institute for doctors named after A. Aliyev, Baku   ABSTRACT The Objective.  To obtain evidence-based data about the role of seasons of the year in the formation of the population mortality risk from the circulatory system diseases  (CSD in Azerbaijan and its regions with specific climate. Materials of the study. A case of mortality was a unit of statistical observation. The fatalities from all reasons, including CSD have been distributed by the days of every month in the year. Daily average amount of fatalities by months and seasons ( from 20 December to 19 March – winter; from 20 March to 19 June- spring; from 20 June to 16 September; from 20 September to 19 December - autumn have been determined. Results.  In Azerbaijan the risk of general mortality and mortality from CSD is the highest in winter, it decreases in spring but nonuniformly (the general mortality rate is less than that from CSD. That is why the share of CSD increases among mortality reasons. Conclusions. Seasonal change of mortality risks from CSD is multivariant. Winter-spring increase of risk predominates in Azerbaijan. In some regions of Azerbaijan the mortality risk from CSD increases only once either in spring or in summer or winter. Key words: seasonal dynamics, risk of mortality, circulatory system diseases.

  1. Radiation dose dependent risk of liver cancer mortality in the German uranium miners cohort 1946–2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufey, F; Walsh, L; Sogl, M; Tschense, A; Schnelzer, M; Kreuzer, M

    2013-01-01

    An increased risk of mortality from primary liver cancers among uranium miners has been observed in various studies. An analysis of the data from a German uranium miner cohort (the ‘Wismut cohort’) was used to assess the relationship with ionising radiation. To that end the absorbed organ dose due to high and low linear energy transfer radiation was calculated for 58 987 miners with complete information on radiation exposure from a detailed job–exposure matrix. 159 deaths from liver cancer were observed in the follow-up period from 1946 to 2003. Relative risk models with either linear or categorical dependence on high and low linear energy transfer radiation liver doses were fitted by Poisson regression, stratified on age and calendar year. The linear trend of excess relative risk in a model with both low and high linear transfer radiation is −0.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): −3.7, 2.1) Gy −1 and 48.3 (95% CI: −32.0, 128.6) Gy −1 for low and high linear energy transfer radiation, respectively, and thus not statistically significant for either dose. The increase of excess relative risk with equivalent liver dose is 0.57 (95% CI: −0.69, 1.82) Sv −1 . Adjustment for arsenic only had a negligible effect on the radiation risk. In conclusion, there is only weak evidence for an increase of liver cancer mortality with increasing radiation dose in the German uranium miners cohort considered. However, both a lack of statistical power and potential misclassification of primary liver cancer are issues. (paper)

  2. Long-term mortality after poliomyelitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nete Munk; Rostgaard, Klaus; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have described mortality and cause of death among persons with a history of polio. METHODS: We identified a group of patients diagnosed with poliomyelitis in Copenhagen between 1919 and 1954. We obtained information on vital status through May 1997 and on cause of death...... by linkage with the Danish Civil Registration System and the Danish Cause-of-Death Register. Overall and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios served as the measure of mortality risk relative to that of the general population. RESULTS: We observed 1295 deaths among 5977 polio patients compared...... with an expected 1141 deaths (standardized mortality ratio = 1.14; 95% confidence interval = 1.07-1.20). Excess mortality was restricted to polio patients with a history of severe paralysis of the extremities (1.69; 1.32-2.15) or patients who had been treated for respiratory failure during the epidemics (2.71; 2...

  3. Job losses and accumulated number of broken partnerships increase risk of premature mortality in Danish men born in 1953

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kriegbaum, Margit; Christensen, Ulla; Lund, Rikke

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate how accumulation of job losses and broken partnerships affect the risk of premature mortality, and to study joint exposure to both events. METHODS: Birth cohort study of 9789 Danish men born in 1953 with follow-up of events between the ages of 40 and 51. RESULTS: The adj......OBJECTIVE: To investigate how accumulation of job losses and broken partnerships affect the risk of premature mortality, and to study joint exposure to both events. METHODS: Birth cohort study of 9789 Danish men born in 1953 with follow-up of events between the ages of 40 and 51. RESULTS......: The adjusted hazard rates for premature mortality was 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15 to 1.80) for individuals with one job loss, 1.55 (1.13 to 2.13) for individuals with one broken partnership, and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.49 to 3.10) for individuals with two or more broken partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Experience of at least one...... job loss increased the risk of premature mortality. The risk of premature mortality increased with the number of broken partnerships. There was no statistical interaction between job losses and broken partnerships....

  4. Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A.; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M.

    2013-01-01

    A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socioeconomic status (SES) were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was also a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hotspots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was found to be clearly evident in this rural population. PMID:23733287

  5. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Ping; Lu, Zhidan; Xing, Jing; Wang, Na; Zhang, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ) injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra), has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group) and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days) plus conventional therapy (XBJ group). Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02) compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001) compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all Ptreatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  6. Journey to top performance: a multipronged quality improvement approach to reducing cardiac surgery mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheinerman, S Jacob; Dlugacz, Yosef D; Hartman, Alan R; Moravick, Donna; Nelson, Karen L; Scanlon, Kerri Anne; Stier, Lori

    2015-02-01

    In 2006, leadership at Long Island Jewish Medical Center (New Hyde Park, New York) noted significantly higher cardiac surgery mortality rates for isolated valve and valve/coronary artery bypass graft procedures compared to the New York State Department of Health's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System statewide average. Long Island Jewish Medical Center, a 583-bed nonprofit, tertiary care teaching hospital, is one of the clinical and academic hubs of North Shore-LIJ Health System. Senior leadership launched an evaluation of the cardiac surgery program to determine why cardiac surgery mortality rates were higher than expected. As a result, the cardiac surgery program was redesigned, and interventions were implemented related to preoperative care, intraoperative monitoring, postoperative care, and the cardiac surgery quality management program. According to the most recent New York State Department of Health reporting period (2009-2011), Long Island Jewish Medical Center had the lowest risk-adjusted mortality rate in New York State for adult patients undergoing surgeries to repair or replace heart valves and for adult patients in need of valve/coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The medical center has sustained significantly lower mortality rates compared to the statewide average for the past three cardiac surgery reporting periods. Cardiac surgery mortality rates can be significantly reduced and sustained below comparative norms when the organization is committed to clinical excellence and quality and is involved in continuously assessing organizational performance. The evaluation launched at Long Island Jewish Medical Center led to the redesign of the cardiac surgery program and prompted widespread improvement efforts and cultural change across the entire organization.

  7. Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

    2012-08-01

    Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

  8. Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-06

    Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

  9. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

    1994-01-01

    The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

  10. Socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors as determinants of premature mortality: a multicohort study and meta-analysis of 1·7 million men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stringhini, Silvia; Carmeli, Cristian; Jokela, Markus; Avendaño, Mauricio; Muennig, Peter; Guida, Florence; Ricceri, Fulvio; d'Errico, Angelo; Barros, Henrique; Bochud, Murielle; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Costa, Giuseppe; Delpierre, Cyrille; Fraga, Silvia; Goldberg, Marcel; Giles, Graham G; Krogh, Vittorio; Kelly-Irving, Michelle; Layte, Richard; Lasserre, Aurélie M; Marmot, Michael G; Preisig, Martin; Shipley, Martin J; Vollenweider, Peter; Zins, Marie; Kawachi, Ichiro; Steptoe, Andrew; Mackenbach, Johan P; Vineis, Paolo; Kivimäki, Mika

    2017-03-25

    In 2011, WHO member states signed up to the 25 × 25 initiative, a plan to cut mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. However, socioeconomic factors influencing non-communicable diseases have not been included in the plan. In this study, we aimed to compare the contribution of socioeconomic status to mortality and years-of-life-lost with that of the 25 × 25 conventional risk factors. We did a multicohort study and meta-analysis with individual-level data from 48 independent prospective cohort studies with information about socioeconomic status, indexed by occupational position, 25 × 25 risk factors (high alcohol intake, physical inactivity, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity), and mortality, for a total population of 1 751 479 (54% women) from seven high-income WHO member countries. We estimated the association of socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality by calculating minimally adjusted and mutually adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and 95% CIs. We also estimated the population attributable fraction and the years of life lost due to suboptimal risk factors. During 26·6 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 13·3 years [SD 6·4 years]), 310 277 participants died. HR for the 25 × 25 risk factors and mortality varied between 1·04 (95% CI 0·98-1·11) for obesity in men and 2 ·17 (2·06-2·29) for current smoking in men. Participants with low socioeconomic status had greater mortality compared with those with high socioeconomic status (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·38-1·45 for men; 1·34, 1·28-1·39 for women); this association remained significant in mutually adjusted models that included the 25 × 25 factors (HR 1·26, 1·21-1·32, men and women combined). The population attributable fraction was highest for smoking, followed by physical inactivity then socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status was associated with a 2·1-year

  11. Active life expectancy of Americans with diabetes: risks of heart disease, obesity, and inactivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

    2015-01-01

    Few researchers have studied whether diabetes itself is responsible for high rates of disability or mortality, or if factors associated with diabetes contribute importantly. We estimated associations of diabetes, heart disease, obesity, and physical inactivity with life expectancy (LE), the proportion of life with disability (DLE), and disability in the last year of life. Data were from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1999-2011 and 1986, African American and white women and men ages 55+, n=1,980, 17,352 person-years). Activities of daily living defined disability. Multinomial logistic Markov models estimated disability transition probabilities adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and the health factors. Microsimulation measured outcomes. White women and men exemplify results. LE was, for women: 3.5 years less with diabetes than without (95% confidence interval, 3.1-4.0), 11.1 less (10.3-12.0) adding heart disease, 21.9 less with all factors (15.3-28.5), all pheart disease, 52.9% (38.9-66.8) with all factors, all pheart disease, obesity, and inactivity, risks that can be modified by health behaviors and medical care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk factors of all-cause in-hospital mortality among Korean elderly bacteremic urinary tract infection (UTI) patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Bum Sik; Kim, Myung Soo; Han, Sang Hoon; Shin, So Youn; Choi, Hee Kyung; Chae, Yun Tae; Jin, Sung Joon; Baek, Ji-Hyeon; Choi, Jun Yong; Song, Young Goo; Kim, Chang Oh; Kim, June Myung

    2011-01-01

    Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most frequent cause of bacteremia/sepsis in elderly people and increasing antimicrobial resistance in uropathogens has been observed. To describe the characteristics of bacteremic UTI in elderly patients and to identify the independent risk factors of all-cause in-hospital mortality, a retrospective cohort study of bacteremic UTI patients of age over 65 was performed at a single 2000-bed tertiary hospital. Bacteremic UTI was defined as the isolation of the same organism from both urine and blood within 48 h. Eighty-six elderly bacteremic UTI patients were enrolled. Community-acquired infection was the case for most patients (79.1%), and Escherichia coli accounted for 88.6% (70/79) among Gram-negative organisms. Non-E. coli Gram-negative organisms were more frequent in hospital-acquired cases and male patients while chronic urinary catheter insertion was related with Gram-positive urosepsis. The antibiotic susceptibility among Gram-negative organisms was not different depending on the source of bacteremic UTI, while non-E. coli Gram-negative organisms were less frequently susceptible for cefotaxime, cefoperazone/sulbactam, and aztreonam. All-cause in-hospital mortality was 11.6%, and functional dependency (adjusted hazard ratio=HR=10.9, 95% confidence interval=95%CI=2.2-54.6) and low serum albumin (adjusted HR=27.0, 95%CI=2.0-361.2) were independently related with increased all-cause in-hospital mortality. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Background Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global...... Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared...... from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95...

  14. SSRI Use During Pregnancy and Risk of Stillbirth and Neonatal Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez-Solem, Espen; Andersen, Jon Trærup; Petersen, Morten

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The authors investigated whether in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increases the risk of stillbirth or neonatal mortality. METHOD The authors conducted a population-based cohort study using the Danish Fertility Database to identify every birth in Denmark...... between 1995 and 2008. Time of exposure to SSRIs was calculated on the basis of standard treatment dosages and dispensed pack sizes according to the prescription register. Exposure was divided into first-, second-, and third-trimester exposure. Multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS...... The authors identified 920,620 births; the incidence of stillbirths was 0.45%, and the incidence of neonatal mortality was 0.34%. A total of 12,425 offspring were exposed to an SSRI during pregnancy. Stillbirth was not associated with first-trimester SSRI use (adjusted odds ratio=0.77, 95% CI=0...

  15. Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR): evaluation of a novel method to compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, V A; van Smeden, M; Postma, D F; Oosterheert, J J; Bonten, M J M; van Werkhoven, C H

    2017-12-01

    The Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR) statistic was proposed to improve the efficiency of trials comparing antibiotic stewardship strategies to optimize antibiotic use. We studied the behaviour of RADAR in a non-inferiority trial in which a β-lactam monotherapy strategy (n = 656) was non-inferior to fluoroquinolone monotherapy (n = 888) for patients with moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. Patients were ranked according to clinical outcome, using five or eight categories, and antibiotic use. RADAR was calculated as the probability that the β-lactam group had a more favourable ranking than the fluoroquinolone group. To investigate the sensitivity of RADAR to detrimental clinical outcome we simulated increasing rates of 90-day mortality in the β-lactam group and performed the RADAR and non-inferiority analysis. The RADAR of the β-lactam group compared with the fluoroquinolone group was 60.3% (95% CI 57.9%-62.7%) using five and 58.4% (95% CI 56.0%-60.9%) using eight clinical outcome categories, all in favour of β-lactam. Sample sizes for RADAR were 38% (250/653) and 89% (580/653) of the non-inferiority sample size calculation, using five or eight clinical outcome categories, respectively. With simulated mortality rates, loss of non-inferiority of the β-lactam group occurred at a relative risk of 1.125 in the conventional analysis, whereas using RADAR the β-lactam group lost superiority at a relative risk of mortality of 1.25 and 1.5, with eight and five clinical outcome categories, respectively. RADAR favoured β-lactam over fluoroquinolone therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Although RADAR required fewer patients than conventional non-inferiority analysis, the statistic was less sensitive to detrimental outcomes. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Lung cancer mortality among nonsmoking uranium miners exposed to radon daughters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roscoe, R.J.; Steenland, K.; Halperin, W.E.; Beaumont, J.J.; Waxweiler, R.J.

    1989-01-01

    Radon daughters, both in the workplace and in the household, are a continuing cause for concern because of the well-documented association between exposure to radon daughters and lung cancer. To estimate the risk of lung cancer mortality among nonsmokers exposed to varying levels of radon daughters, 516 white men who never smoked cigarettes, pipes, or cigars were selected from the US Public Health Service cohort of Colorado Plateau uranium miners and followed up from 1950 through 1984. Age-specific mortality rates for nonsmokers from a study of US veterans were used for comparison. Fourteen deaths from lung cancer were observed among the nonsmoking miners, while 1.1 deaths were expected, yielding a standardized mortality ratio of 12.7 with 95% confidence limits of 8.0 and 20.1. These results confirm that exposure to radon daughters in the absence of cigarette smoking is a potent carcinogen that should be strictly controlled

  17. Lung cancer mortality among nonsmoking uranium miners exposed to radon daughters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roscoe, R.J.; Stenland, K.; Halperin, W.E.; Waxweiler, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on radon daughters, both in the workplace and in the household, that are a continuing cause of concern because of the well-documented association between exposure to radon daughters and lung cancer. To estimate the risk of lung cancer mortality among nonsmokers exposed to varying levels of radon daughters, 516 white men who never smoked cigarettes, pipes, or cigars were selected from the U.S. Public Health Service cohort of Colorado Plateau uranium miners and followed up from 1950 through 1984. Age-specific mortality rates for nonsmokers from a study of U.S. veterans were used for comparison. Fourteen deaths from lung cancer were observed among the nonsmoking miners, while 1.1 deaths were expected, yielding a standardized mortality radio of 12.7 with 95% confidence limits of 8.0 and 20.1. These results confirm that exposure to radon daughters in the absence of cigarette smoking is a potent carcinogen that should be strictly controlled

  18. Slow lifelong growth predisposes Populus tremuloides to tree mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathryn B. Ireland; Margaret M. Moore; Peter Z. Fule; Thomas J. Zegler; Robert E. Keane

    2014-01-01

    Widespread dieback of aspen forests, sometimes called sudden aspen decline, has been observed throughout much of western North America, with the highest mortality rates in the southwestern United States. Recent aspen mortality has been linked to drought stress and elevated temperatures characteristic of conditions expected under climate change, but the role of...

  19. Maternal obesity and neonatal mortality according to subtypes of preterm birth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nøhr, Ellen Aagaard; Vaeth, Michael; Bech, Bodil H

    2007-01-01

    : Compared with infants of mothers who were at a normal weight before pregnancy (BMI of 18.5 or more but less than 25), neonatal mortality was increased in infants of mothers who were overweight (BMI of 25 or more but less than 30) or obese (BMI of 30 or more) (adjusted hazard ratios 1.7, CI 1.2-2.5, and 1.......6, CI 1.0-2.4, respectively). For preterm infants (n=3,934, 136 deaths), neonatal mortality in infants born after preterm premature rupture of membranes (PROM) was significantly increased if they were born to an overweight or obese mother (adjusted hazard ratios 3.5, CI 1.4-8.7, and 5.7, CI 2.......2-14.8). There were no associations between high BMI and neonatal mortality in infants born after spontaneous preterm birth without preterm PROM or in infants born after induced preterm delivery. CONCLUSION: High maternal weight seems to increase the risk of neonatal mortality, especially in infants born after...

  20. Transient postoperative atrial fibrillation after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair increases mortality risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothari, Anai N.; Halandras, Pegge M.; Drescher, Max; Blackwell, Robert H.; Graunke, Dawn M.; Kliethermes, Stephanie; Kuo, Paul C.; Cho, Jae S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to determine whether new-onset transient postoperative atrial fibrillation (TPAF) affects mortality rates after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to identify predictors for the development of TPAF. Methods Patients who underwent open aortic repair or endovascular aortic repair for a principal diagnosis AAA were retrospectively identified using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-State Inpatient Database (Florida) for 2007 to 2011 and monitored longitudinally for 1 year. Inpatient and 1-year mortality rates were compared between those with and without TPAF. TPAF was defined as new-onset atrial fibrillation that developed in the postoperative period and subsequently resolved in patients without a history of atrial fibrillation. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, rupture status, and repair method, were used to assess 1-year survival. Predictive models were built with preoperative patient factors using Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector decision trees and externally validated on patients from California. Results A 3.7% incidence of TPAF was identified among 15,148 patients who underwent AAA repair. The overall mortality rate was 4.3%. The inpatient mortality rate was 12.3% in patients with TPAF vs 4.0% in those without TPAF. In the ruptured setting, the difference in mortality was similar between groups (33.7% vs 39.9%, P = .3). After controlling for age, gender, comorbid disease severity, urgency (ruptured vs nonruptured), and repair method, TPAF was associated with increased 1-year postoperative mortality (hazard ratio, 1.48; P predict an individual's probability of developing TPAF at the point of care. Conclusions The development of TPAF is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients undergoing repair of nonruptured AAA. Predictive modeling can be used to identify those patients at highest risk for developing TPAF and guide interventions to improve

  1. Cause-specific mortality in British coal workers and exposure to respirable dust and quartz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, B.G.; MacCalman, L. [Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2010-04-15

    In the 1950s the Pneumoconiosis Field Research (PFR) programme was set up to study the health of British coal workers. Studies included regular health surveys, an intensive characterisation of workers' individual exposures, and entry to a cohort followed up to the present for cause-specific mortality. This study reports on analyses of cause-specific mortality in a cohort of almost 18 000 men from 10 British collieries. External analyses used standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), comparing observed mortality with reference rates from the regions in which the collieries were situated. Causes investigated include lung and stomach cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular endpoints. Internal analyses used Cox regression models with time-dependent exposures adjusting for the confounding effects of age, smoking, cohort entry date and regional differences in population mortality rates. Several causes showed evidence of a healthy worker effect early in the follow-up, with a deficit in the SMR diminishing over time. For most of the causes there was a significant excess in the latter part of follow-up. Internal analyses found evidence of an association between increased risks of lung cancer and increased quartz exposure, particularly at a lag of 15 years. Risks of mortality from non-malignant respiratory disease showed increases with increased exposure to respirable dust. This paper adds to the evidence on the long-term effects of exposure to coalmine dust on mortality from respiratory diseases.

  2. Cause-specific mortality in British coal workers and exposure to respirable dust and quartz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian G Miller; Laura MacCalman [Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2010-04-15

    In the 1950s the Pneumoconiosis Field Research (PFR) programme was set up to study the health of British coal workers. Studies included regular health surveys, an intensive characterisation of workers' individual exposures, and entry to a cohort followed up to the present for cause-specific mortality. This study reports on analyses of cause-specific mortality in a cohort of almost 18?000 men from 10 British collieries. External analyses used standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), comparing observed mortality with reference rates from the regions in which the collieries were situated. Causes investigated include lung and stomach cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular endpoints. Internal analyses used Cox regression models with time-dependent exposures adjusting for the confounding effects of age, smoking, cohort entry date and regional differences in population mortality rates. Several causes showed evidence of a healthy worker effect early in the follow-up, with a deficit in the SMR diminishing over time. For most of the causes there was a significant excess in the latter part of follow-up. Internal analyses found evidence of an association between increased risks of lung cancer and increased quartz exposure, particularly at a lag of 15 years. Risks of mortality from non-malignant respiratory disease showed increases with increased exposure to respirable dust. This paper adds to the evidence on the long-term effects of exposure to coalmine dust on mortality from respiratory diseases.

  3. Serum sodium and mortality in a national peritoneal dialysis cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravel, Vanessa A; Streja, Elani; Mehrotra, Rajnish; Sim, John J; Harley, Kevin; Ayus, Juan Carlos; Amin, Alpesh N; Brunelli, Steven M; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Rhee, Connie M

    2017-07-01

    Sodium disarrays are common in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, and may be associated with adverse outcomes in this population. However, few studies of limited sample size have examined the association of serum sodium with mortality in PD patients, with inconsistent results. We hypothesized that both hypo- and hypernatremia are associated with higher death risk in a nationally representative cohort of US PD patients. We sought to examine the association of serum sodium over time and mortality among 4687 adult incident PD patients from a large US dialysis organization who underwent one or more serum sodium measurements within the first 3 months of dialysis over January 2007 to December 2011. We examined the association of time-dependent and baseline sodium with all-cause mortality as a proxy of short- and long-term sodium-mortality associations, respectively. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox models with three adjustment levels: minimally adjusted, case-mix adjusted, and case-mix + laboratory adjusted. In time-dependent analyses, sodium levels mortality remained significant for levels mortality risk across all models (ref: 140 to <142 mEq/L). In PD patients, lower time-dependent and baseline sodium levels were independently associated with higher death risk. Further studies are needed to determine whether correction of dysnatremia improves longevity in this population. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk of amphetamine use disorder and mortality among incident users of prescribed stimulant medications in the Veterans Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westover, Arthur N; Nakonezny, Paul A; Halm, Ethan A; Adinoff, Bryon

    2018-05-01

    Non-medical use of prescribed stimulant medications is a growing concern. This study's aims were to ascertain the demographics of stimulant medication users compared with non-users, examine temporal trends of stimulant medication use and estimate risk factors for development of amphetamine use disorder (AUD) and mortality among new users of stimulant medications. Cox proportional hazards regression in a retrospective cohort adjusted by baseline covariates. United States, national administrative database of the Veterans Affairs (VA) health-care system. Adult incident users of stimulant medications (n = 78 829) from fiscal years (FY) 2001 to 2012. Primary outcomes were time-to-event: (1) occurrence of AUD diagnosis and (2) death. Baseline covariates included demographic information, Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved indications for stimulant use, substance use disorders (SUD) and depression. Stimulant users compared with non-users were younger, more likely to be non-Hispanic white and female. Incident stimulant medication users increased threefold from FY2001-FY2012 and eightfold among adults aged 18-44 years. Nearly one in 10 incident users in FY2012 had a comorbid baseline SUD. Off-label use was common-nearly three of every five incident users in FY2012. Comorbid SUDs among incident stimulant medication users were risk factors for occurrence of AUD during follow-up, with adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) estimates ranging from 1.54 to 2.83 (Ps users in the Veterans Affairs health-care system, measured from fiscal years 2001 to 2012, comorbid substance use disorders were common and were risk factors for development of an amphetamine use disorder (AUD). Increased mortality risk among incident users of stimulant medications was observed among both those who developed an AUD later and those whose use was defined as off-label. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  5. Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zimmermann, E; Ängquist, L H; Mirza, S S

    2015-01-01

    Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has......-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P ... hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0...

  6. Body Mass Index and the Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality Among Patients With Hypertension: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study Among Adults in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuibao Li

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies on the association between body mass index (BMI and death risk among patients with hypertension are limited, and the results are inconsistent. We investigated the association between BMI and cardiovascular disease (CVD and all-cause mortality among hypertensive patients in a population of Beijing, China. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 2535 patients with hypertension aged 40 to 91 years from Beijing, China. Participants with a history of CVD at baseline were excluded from analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of different levels of BMI stratification with CVD and allcause mortality. Results: During a mean follow-up of 8.1 years, 486 deaths were identified, including 233 cases of CVD death. The multivariable-adjusted hazards ratios for all-cause mortality associated with BMI levels ( 0.05 for all interactions. Regarding the association of BMI with CVD mortality, a U-shaped trend was also observed. Conclusions: The present study showed a U-shaped association of BMI with CVD and all-cause mortality among patients with hypertension. A lowest risk of all-cause mortality was found among hypertensive patients with BMI between 24 and 26 kg/m2.

  7. Work, household, and leisure-time physical activity and risk of mortality in the EPIC-Spain cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta, José Ma; Chirlaque, María Dolores; Tormo, María José; Buckland, Genevieve; Ardanaz, Eva; Arriola, Larraitz; Gavrila, Diana; Salmerón, Diego; Cirera, Lluís; Carpe, Bienvenida; Molina-Montes, Esther; Chamosa, Saioa; Travier, Noemie; Quirós, José R; Barricarte, Aurelio; Agudo, Antonio; Sánchez, María José; Navarro, Carmen

    2016-04-01

    Large-scale longitudinal data on the association of domain-specific physical activity (PA) and mortality is limited. Our objective was to evaluate the association of work, household (HPA), and leisure time PA (LTPA) with overall and cause-specific mortality in the EPIC-Spain study. 38,379 participants (62.4% women), 30-65years old, and free of chronic disease at baseline were followed-up from recruitment (1992 - 1996) to December 31st, 2008 to ascertain vital status and cause of death. PA was evaluated at baseline and at a 3-year follow-up with a validated questionnaire (EPIC-PAQ) and combined variables were used to classify the participants by sub-domains of PA. Associations with overall, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality risks were assessed using competing risk Cox regression models adjusted by potential confounders. After 13.6years of mean follow-up, 1371 deaths were available for analyses. HPA was strongly associated to reduced overall (hazard ratio (HR) for Q4 vs. Q1=0.47 (0.34, 0.64)) and cause-specific mortalities in women and to lower cancer mortality in men (P for trend=0.004), irrespective of age, education, and lifestyle and morbidity variables. LTPA was associated with lower mortality in women (HR for Q4 vs. Q1=0.71 (0.52, 0.98)), but not men. No relationships were found between sedentariness at work and overall mortality. HPA was associated to lower mortality risk in men and women from the EPIC-Spain cohort, whereas LTPA also contributed to reduce risk of death in women. Considering the large proportion of total daily PA that HPA represents in some population groups, these results are of public health importance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Fatty acids linked to cardiovascular mortality are associated with risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven O. E. Ebbesson

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although saturated fatty acids (FAs have been linked to cardiovascular mortality, it is not clear whether this outcome is attributable solely to their effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C or whether other risk factors are also associated with FAs. The Western Alaskan Native population, with its rapidly changing lifestyles, shift in diet from unsaturated to saturated fatty acids and dramatic increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD, presents an opportunity to elucidate any associations between specific FAs and known CVD risk factors. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that the specific FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality are also associated with individual CVD risk factors. Methods: In this community-based, cross-sectional study, relative proportions of FAs in plasma and red blood cell membranes were compared with CVD risk factors in a sample of 758 men and women aged ≥35 years. Linear regression analyses were used to analyze relations between specific FAs and CVD risk factors (LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body mass index, fasting glucose and fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose and 2-hour insulin. Results: The specific saturated FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality, the palmitic and myristic acids, were adversely associated with most CVD risk factors, whereas unsaturated linoleic acid (18:2n-6 and the marine n-3 FAs were not associated or were beneficially associated with CVD risk factors. Conclusions: The results suggest that CVD risk factors are more extensively affected by individual FAs than hitherto recognized, and that risk for CVD, MI and stroke can be reduced by reducing the intake of palmitate, myristic acid and simple carbohydrates and improved by greater intake of linoleic acid and marine n-3 FAs.

  9. Mortality in acromegaly: a metaanalysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekkers, O. M.; Biermasz, N. R.; Pereira, A. M.; Romijn, J. A.; Vandenbroucke, J. P.

    2008-01-01

    Several studies have assessed mortality risk in patients treated for acromegaly. All studies found a mortality that was higher than expected for the general population, but most of these increases were not statistically significant. For this reason, it is not formally established whether mortality

  10. Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S

    2014-06-25

    The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2

  11. Premature mortality in active convulsive epilepsy in rural Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottomley, Christian; Fegan, Gregory; Chengo, Eddie; Odhiambo, Rachael; Bauni, Evasius; Neville, Brian; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sander, Josemir W.; Newton, Charles R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: We estimated premature mortality and identified causes of death and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in rural Kenya. Methods: In this prospective population-based study, people with ACE were identified in a cross-sectional survey and followed up regularly for 3 years, during which information on deaths and associated factors was collected. We used a validated verbal autopsy tool to establish putative causes of death. Age-specific rate ratios and standardized mortality ratios were estimated. Poisson regression was used to identify mortality risk factors. Results: There were 61 deaths among 754 people with ACE, yielding a rate of 33.3/1,000 persons/year. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 6.5. Mortality was higher across all ACE age groups. Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 3.37), cognitive impairment (aRR 4.55), and age (50+ years) (rate ratio 4.56) were risk factors for premature mortality. Most deaths (56%) were directly related to epilepsy, with prolonged seizures/possible status epilepticus (38%) most frequently associated with death; some of these may have been due to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Possible SUDEP was the likely cause in another 7%. Conclusion: Mortality in people with ACE was more than 6-fold greater than expected. This may be reduced by improving treatment adherence and prompt management of prolonged seizures and supporting those with cognitive impairment. PMID:24443454

  12. Reduction in acute myocardial infarction mortality in the United States: risk-standardized mortality rates from 1995-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumholz, Harlan M; Wang, Yun; Chen, Jersey; Drye, Elizabeth E; Spertus, John A; Ross, Joseph S; Curtis, Jeptha P; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Lichtman, Judith H; Havranek, Edward P; Masoudi, Frederick A; Radford, Martha J; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Straube, Barry M; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2009-08-19

    During the last 2 decades, health care professional, consumer, and payer organizations have sought to improve outcomes for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, little has been reported about improvements in hospital short-term mortality rates or reductions in between-hospital variation in short-term mortality rates. To estimate hospital-level 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) for patients discharged with AMI. Observational study using administrative data and a validated risk model to evaluate 3,195,672 discharges in 2,755,370 patients discharged from nonfederal acute care hospitals in the United States between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Patients were 65 years or older (mean, 78 years) and had at least a 12-month history of fee-for-service enrollment prior to the index hospitalization. Patients discharged alive within 1 day of an admission not against medical advice were excluded, because it is unlikely that these patients had sustained an AMI. Hospital-specific 30-day all-cause RSMR. At the patient level, the odds of dying within 30 days of admission if treated at a hospital 1 SD above the national average relative to that if treated at a hospital 1 SD below the national average were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.60-1.65) in 1995 and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.53-1.60) in 2006. In terms of hospital-specific RSMRs, a decrease from 18.8% in 1995 to 15.8% in 2006 was observed (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77). A reduction in between-hospital heterogeneity in the RSMRs was also observed: the coefficient of variation decreased from 11.2% in 1995 to 10.8%, the interquartile range from 2.8% to 2.1%, and the between-hospital variance from 4.4% to 2.9%. Between 1995 and 2006, the risk-standardized hospital mortality rate for Medicare patients discharged with AMI showed a significant decrease, as did between-hospital variation.

  13. Single Marital Status and Infectious Mortality in Women With Cervical Cancer in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machida, Hiroko; Eckhardt, Sarah E; Castaneda, Antonio V; Blake, Erin A; Pham, Huyen Q; Roman, Lynda D; Matsuo, Koji

    2017-10-01

    Unmarried status including single marital status is associated with increased mortality in women bearing malignancy. Infectious disease weights a significant proportion of mortality in patients with malignancy. Here, we examined an association of single marital status and infectious mortality in cervical cancer. This is a retrospective observational study examining 86,555 women with invasive cervical cancer identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program between 1973 and 2013. Characteristics of 18,324 single women were compared with 38,713 married women in multivariable binary logistic regression models. Propensity score matching was performed to examine cumulative risk of all-cause and infectious mortality between the 2 groups. Single marital status was significantly associated with young age, black/Hispanic ethnicity, Western US residents, uninsured status, high-grade tumor, squamous histology, and advanced-stage disease on multivariable analysis (all, P single marital status was significantly associated with increased cumulative risk of all-cause mortality (5-year rate: 32.9% vs 29.7%, P single marital status remained an independent prognostic factor for increased cumulative risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.20; P single marital status remained significantly increased risk of infectious mortality after propensity score matching (adjusted HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.34-3.73; P = 0.002). Single marital status was associated with increased infectious mortality in women with invasive cervical cancer.

  14. Ethnic patterns of hypospadias in New Zealand do not resemble those observed for cryptorchidism and testicular cancer: evidence of differential aetiology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, J K; Stanley, J; Shaw, C; Sarfati, D

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that hypospadias, cryptorchidism, poor semen quality and testicular cancer might share common prenatal causes. We have previously demonstrated similar ethnic patterns for the incidence of testicular cancer and cryptorchidism - a known risk factor for testicular cancer. If the underlying exposure(s) that cause hypospadias, cryptorchidism and testicular cancer are shared, then we would expect the incidence relationship between ethnic groups to follow the same pattern across all three conditions. We followed a birth cohort of 318 345 eligible male neonates born in New Zealand between 2000-2010, and linked routinely collected maternity records with inpatient hospitalization and mortality records through to 2011. We searched hospitalization records for diagnoses of hypospadias, and used mortality records for censoring. We used Poisson regression methods to compare the relative risk of hypospadias between ethnic groups, adjusting for perinatal risk factors and total person time. We observed that European/Other children had the highest risk of hypospadias, with Māori, Pacific and Asian boys having around 40% lower risk of disease compared with this group (adjusted relative risk [RR]: Māori 0.62, 95% CI 0.55-0.70; Pacific 0.62, 95% CI 0.53-0.72; Asian 0.57, 95% CI 0.47-0.69). This contrasts substantially with our previous observations for cryptorchidism and testicular cancer, where Māori males have the greatest risk. Our observations suggest that - at least in New Zealand - the exposures that drive the development of hypospadias may differ to those that that drive the development of cryptorchidism and/or testicular cancer. © 2015 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

  15. Maternal stress and infant mortality: The importance of the preconception period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Class, Quetzal A.; Khashan, Ali S.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Långström, Niklas; D’Onofrio, Brian M.

    2013-01-01

    Although preconception and prenatal maternal stress are associated with adverse birth and childhood outcomes, the relation to infant mortality remains uncertain. We used logistic regression to study infant mortality risk following maternal stress within a population-based sample of offspring born in Sweden from 1973 to 2008 (N= 3,055,361). Preconception (6-0 months before conception) and prenatal (conception to birth) stress was defined as death of a first-degree relative of the mother. A total of 20,651 offspring were exposed to preconception stress, 26,731 to prenatal stress, and 8,398 cases of infant mortality were identified. Preconception stress increased the risk of infant mortality independent of measured covariates (adjusted OR=1.53; 95% CI=1.25–1.88) and the association was timing-specific and robust across low-risk groups. Prenatal stress did not increase risk of infant mortality (adjusted OR=1.05; 95% CI=0.84–1.30). The period immediately before conception may be a sensitive developmental period influencing risk for infant mortality. PMID:23653129

  16. Differences between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón-Moyano, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luis; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

    2016-06-01

    The main risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, a habit that varies according to age and sex. The objective of this study was to explore trends in lung cancer mortality by sex and age from 1980 to 2013 in Spain. We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude, truncated, age-adjusted mortality and age-specific mortality rates were assessed through joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change (APC). Age-adjusted mortality rate significantly increased from 1980 to 1991 among men (APC=3.12%) and significantly decreased between 2001 and 2013 (APC=-1.53%), a similar pattern was observed in age-specific rates. Among women, age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 1989 (APC 1989-1997=1.82%), with the greatest increase observed from 1997 until the end of the study in 2013 (APC=4.41%). Diverging trends in the prevalence of smoking could explain the increase in the rate of lung cancer-related mortality among Spanish women since the early 1990s. Public health policies should be implemented to reduce tobacco consumption in women and halt the increase in lung cancer mortality. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  17. Simple risk stratification at admission to identify patients with reduced mortality from primary angioplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thune, Jens Jakob; Hoefsten, Dan Eik; Lindholm, Matias Greve

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Randomized trials comparing fibrinolysis with primary angioplasty for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction have demonstrated a beneficial effect of primary angioplasty on the combined end point of death, reinfarction, and disabling stroke but not on all-cause death. Identifying...... a patient group with reduced mortality from an invasive strategy would be important for early triage. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score is a simple validated integer score that makes it possible to identify high-risk patients on admission to hospital. We hypothesized that a high...... as high risk. There was a significant interaction between risk status and effect of primary angioplasty (P=0.008). In the low-risk group, there was no difference in mortality (primary angioplasty, 8.0%; fibrinolysis, 5.6%; P=0.11); in the high-risk group, there was a significant reduction in mortality...

  18. Multivitamin use and risk of stroke mortality: the Japan collaborative cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jia-Yi; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitamura, Akihiko; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2015-05-01

    An effect of multivitamin supplement on stroke risk is uncertain. We aimed to examine the association between multivitamin use and risk of death from stroke and its subtypes. A total of 72 180 Japanese men and women free from cardiovascular diseases and cancers at baseline in 1988 to 1990 were followed up until December 31, 2009. Lifestyles including multivitamin use were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of total stroke and its subtypes in relation to multivitamin use. During a median follow-up of 19.1 years, we identified 2087 deaths from stroke, including 1148 ischemic strokes and 877 hemorrhagic strokes. After adjustment for potential confounders, multivitamin use was associated with lower but borderline significant risk of death from total stroke (HR, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.01), primarily ischemic stroke (HR, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.01), but not hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.18). In a subgroup analysis, there was a significant association between multivitamin use and lower risk of mortality from total stroke among people with fruit and vegetable intake stroke. Multivitamin use, particularly frequent use, was associated with reduced risk of total and ischemic stroke mortality among Japanese people with lower intake of fruits and vegetables. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  19. Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2008-01-01

    For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial

  20. Epidemiology, Management, and Risk-Adjusted Mortality of ICU-Acquired Enterococcal Bacteremia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ong, David S Y; Bonten, Marc J M; Safdari, Khatera; Spitoni, Cristian; Frencken, Jos F; Witteveen, Esther; Horn, Janneke; Klein Klouwenberg, Peter M C; Cremer, Olaf L

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND:  Enterococcal bacteremia has been associated with high case fatality, but it remains unknown to what extent death is caused by these infections. We therefore quantified attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteremia caused by enterococci. METHODS:  From 2011 to

  1. Brachytherapy boost and cancer-specific mortality in favorable high-risk versus other high-risk prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinayak Muralidhar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : Recent retrospective data suggest that brachytherapy (BT boost may confer a cancer-specific survival benefit in radiation-managed high-risk prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether this survival benefit would extend to the recently defined favorable high-risk subgroup of prostate cancer patients (T1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA 20 ng/ml. Material and methods: We identified 45,078 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with cT1c-T3aN0M0 intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed 2004-2011 treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT only or EBRT plus BT. We used multivariable competing risks regression to determine differences in the rate of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM after EBRT + BT or EBRT alone in patients with intermediate-risk, favorable high-risk, or other high-risk disease after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Results : EBRT + BT was not associated with an improvement in 5-year PCSM compared to EBRT alone among patients with favorable high-risk disease (1.6% vs. 1.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-1.52, p = 0.258, and intermediate-risk disease (0.8% vs. 1.0%, AHR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59-1.16, p = 0.270. Others with high-risk disease had significantly lower 5-year PCSM when treated with EBRT + BT compared with EBRT alone (3.9% vs. 5.3%; AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.55-0.95; p = 0.022. Conclusions : Brachytherapy boost is associated with a decreased rate of PCSM in some men with high-risk prostate cancer but not among patients with favorable high-risk disease. Our results suggest that the recently-defined “favorable high-risk” category may be used to personalize therapy for men with high-risk disease.

  2. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  3. Depression and risk of mortality in people with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fleur E P van Dooren

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between depression and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with diabetes by systematically reviewing the literature and carrying out a meta-analysis of relevant longitudinal studies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: PUBMED and PSYCINFO were searched for articles assessing mortality risk associated with depression in diabetes up until August 16, 2012. The pooled hazard ratios were calculated using random-effects models. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria, which were pooled in an overall all-cause mortality estimate, and five in a cardiovascular mortality estimate. After adjustment for demographic variables and micro- and macrovascular complications, depression was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.29-1.66, and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.11-1.73. Heterogeneity across studies was high for all-cause mortality and relatively low for cardiovascular mortality, with an I-squared of respectively 78.6% and 39.6%. Subgroup analyses showed that the association between depression and mortality not significantly change when excluding three articles presenting odds ratios, yet this decreased heterogeneity substantially (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.39-1.61, I-squared = 15.1%. A comparison between type 1 and type 2 diabetes could not be undertaken, as only one study reported on type 1 diabetes specifically. CONCLUSIONS: Depression is associated with an almost 1.5-fold increased risk of mortality in people with diabetes. Research should focus on both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes of death associated with depression, and determine the underlying behavioral and physiological mechanisms that may explain this association.

  4. Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Powles John W

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD BMI of 21 (1 Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

  5. Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

    2009-06-30

    Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

  6. Life expectancy and years of life lost in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Findings from the NHANES III Follow-up Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert M Shavelle

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Robert M Shavelle1, David R Paculdo1, Scott J Kush1, David M Mannino2, David J Strauss11Life Expectancy Project, San Francisco, CA, USA; 2Pulmonary Epidemiology Research Laboratory, University of Kentucky School of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Lexington, KY, USARationale: Previous studies have demonstrated that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD causes increased mortality in the general population. But life expectancy and the years of life lost have not been reported.Objectives: To quantify mortality, examine how it varies with age, sex, and other risk factors, and determine how life expectancy is affected.Methods: We constructed mortality models using the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, adjusting for age, sex, race, and major medical conditions. We used these to compute life expectancy and the years of life lost. Measurements and main results: Pulmonary function testing classifi ed patients as having Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD stage 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 COPD or restriction. COPD is associated with only a modest reduction in life expectancy for never smokers, but with a very large reduction for current and former smokers. At age 65, the reductions in male life expectancy for stage 1, stage 2, and stages 3 or 4 disease in current smokers are 0.3 years, 2.2 years, and 5.8 years. These are in addition to the 3.5 years lost due to smoking. In former smokers the reductions are 1.4 years and 5.6 years for stage 2 and stages 3 or 4 disease, and in never smokers they are 0.7 and 1.3 years.Conclusions: Persons with COPD have an increased risk of mortality compared to those who do not, with consequent reduction in life expectancy. The effect is most marked in current smokers, and this is further reason for smokers to quit.Keywords: survival, mortality, longevity, COPD

  7. Osteoprotegerin and mortality in type 2 diabetic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinhard, Henrik; Lajer, Maria Stenkil; Gall, Mari-Anne

    2010-01-01

    aimed to investigate the prognostic value of OPG in relation to all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In a prospective observational follow-up study, 283 type 2 diabetic patients (172 men; aged 53.9 ± 8.8 years) were followed...... predictor of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetic patients. The effect of OPG on all-cause mortality was independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors, UAER, and NT-proBNP levels....... for a median of 16.8 years (range 0.2-23.0). Baseline plasma OPG concentrations were determined by immunoassay. RESULTS During follow-up, 193 (68%) patients died. High versus low levels of OPG predicted all-cause mortality (covariate-adjusted for urinary albumin excretion rate [UAER], estimated glomerular...

  8. Rivalry, solidarity, and longevity among siblings: A life course approach to the impact of sibship composition and birth order on later life mortality risk, Antwerp (1846-1920

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robyn Donrovich

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Family composition and household dynamics, both in early and in later life, influence individual health and longevity. Both positive and negative effects can be expected in terms of sibling size and composition. On one hand, siblings compete with each other, which may lead to resource dilution and increased adult mortality risks. On the other hand, siblings protect and care for each other, which may have a positive impact on longevity. Objective: To investigate the way in which sibling composition (with respect to sibship size, sex, and birth order in the family of orientation and the proximity of siblings in later life relates to adult mortality risks at ages 50+. Methods: Life courses of 258 men and 275 women from the Antwerp COR*-database were 'reconstructed' and analyzed by way of event history analysis using Gompertz shared frailty models. Results: Being higher in birth order related to significantly higher mortality risk after age 50 for men. Having older brothers, particularly those present in later life, was associated with very high excess mortality risk for both sexes, though men were more strongly disadvantaged. Having (more younger sisters present at RP (research person age 50 was related to significantly lower relative mortality risk for women. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the complex relationships between sibling and gender dynamics and mortality risk in later life. Evidence of a lasting impact of sibling competition on mortality risk over age 50 is found; and competition is only replaced by solidarity in critical times (e.g., widowhood, wherein older sibling presence dissimilarly impacts different social groups.

  9. Intelligence in youth and all-cause-mortality: systematic review with meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, Catherine M; Deary, Ian J; Fenton, Candida; Roberts, Beverly A; Der, Geoff; Leckenby, Nicola; Batty, G David

    2011-06-01

    A number of prospective cohort studies have examined the association between intelligence in childhood or youth and life expectancy in adulthood; however, the effect size of this association is yet to be quantified and previous reviews require updating. The systematic review included an electronic search of EMBASE, MEDLINE and PSYCHINFO databases. This yielded 16 unrelated studies that met inclusion criteria, comprising 22,453 deaths among 1,107,022 participants. Heterogeneity was assessed, and fixed effects models were applied to the aggregate data. Publication bias was evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. A 1-standard deviation (SD) advantage in cognitive test scores was associated with a 24% (95% confidence interval 23-25) lower risk of death, during a 17- to 69-year follow-up. There was little evidence of publication bias (Egger's intercept = 0.10, P = 0.81), and the intelligence-mortality association was similar for men and women. Adjustment for childhood socio-economic status (SES) in the nine studies containing these data had almost no impact on this relationship, suggesting that this is not a confounder of the intelligence-mortality association. Controlling for adult SES in five studies and for education in six studies attenuated the intelligence-mortality hazard ratios by 34 and 54%, respectively. Future investigations should address the extent to which attenuation of the intelligence-mortality link by adult SES indicators is due to mediation, over-adjustment and/or confounding. The explanation(s) for association between higher early-life intelligence and lower risk of adult mortality require further elucidation.

  10. Different association between renal hyperfiltration and mortality by sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Kyung Don; Yoon, Hyung-Jin; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Heo, Nam Ju; Chin, Ho Jun; Yang, Seung Hee; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Yon Su; Lee, Hajeong

    2017-10-01

    Renal hyperfiltration (RHF) is a marker of early kidney injury that was recently shown to be a novel marker of mortality. However, it has no clear definition. In this study, we suggested an age- and sex-adjusted RHF definition and explored the association between RHF and mortality by sex. We analyzed data from individuals receiving routine health examinations from 1995 to 2009. RHF was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate over the 95th percentile matched for age and sex. A total of 114 966 individuals were included. During the 75-month of observation period, 2559 (2.2%) participants died. Among those, 71.4% were men. Because sex and RHF had a significant interaction for mortality (P for interaction sex. RHF was related to lower body weight and a higher proportion of cigarette smoking in men, whereas these relationships were not found in women. In the Kaplan-Meier curve, RHF was associated with higher mortality rate than non-RHF in both sexes, but this relationship was more prominent in men. In the multivariate analysis, RHF remained as an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality even after adjustment for confounding in men (hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.59; P = 0.001). In women, RHF was not associated with increased mortality. We demonstrated that RHF was a significant risk factor for mortality in men but not in women. The mechanisms and clinical implications of these different associations according to sex require a further clarification. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  11. Analysis of cancer mortality risk among workers of a research uranium metallurgy division in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jejati, H.; Laurier, D.; Tirmarche, M.; Giraud, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This cohort study has been undertaken in response to a suspected cluster of cancers mentioned by workers involved in research activities concerning the metallurgy of uranium. The studied population included all persons having worked between 1950 and 1968 at the Metallurgy Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). Exposures were registered on an individual annual basis. For analysis, they were grouped in three categories: use of chemicals agents (Benzene, beryllium, alcohols, solvents ...), manipulation of radioactive materials (uranium, thorium, fission decay products), and exposure to external radiation. This relatively small cohort included 356 workers followed up to December 1990. Out of observed deaths, 21 were from cancer. Total mortality from cancer was less than expected from national rates (Standardised Mortality Ratio = 0.73). Cancer mortality did not increase with duration of exposure to external radiation or with duration of manipulation of radioactive materials. Risk of cancer was increasing with the number of years of exposure to chemicals. The small size of this cohort limits the conclusion of the observed results. The purpose, despite this lack of power, was to answer a worry of the workers, more than to estimate a clear dose-response relationship linked to a specific cancer site. The effect studied here is ''all cancers'', a distinction of the different sites being uninformative because of the very small number of cases observed. Nevertheless, this study suggests some routes for further research: it highlights the importance of considering concomitant exposures like chemical ones in studies of nuclear workers. (author)

  12. Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent Mortality Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naimark, David M. J.; Grams, Morgan E.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Black, Corri; Drion, Iefke; Fox, Caroline S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Ishani, Areef; Jee, Sun Ha; Kitamura, Akihiko; Lea, Janice P.; Nally, Joseph; Peralta, Carmen Alicia; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Ryu, Seungho; Tonelli, Marcello; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Coresh, Josef; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; de Jong, Paul E.

    A single determination of eGFR associates with subsequent mortality risk. Prior decline in eGFR indicates loss of kidney function, but the relationship to mortality risk is uncertain. We conducted an individual-level meta-analysis of the risk of mortality associated with antecedent eGFR slope,

  13. Improving Results of Elective Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair at a Low-Volume Hospital by Risk-Adjusted Selection of Treatment in the Endovascular Era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wibmer, Andreas; Meyer, Bernhard; Albrecht, Thomas; Buhr, Heinz-Johannes; Kruschewski, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Several studies have observed both higher mortality rates and lower utilization of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) at low-volume centers. This article presents the results of elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair at a low-volume center in the endovascular era and investigates whether postprocedural mortality can be improved by extension of EVAR application also in this setting. This is an 11.6-year retrospective cohort study of 132 patients undergoing elective surgical or endovascular AAA repair at a tertiary care academic hospital between 1997 and July 2008, i.e., a median volume of 12 cases per year. The study was divided into two periods of time according to the respective indications and contraindications for EVAR, which substantially changed in 2005. During period 1, only aneurysms with necks ≥20 mm long and not involving the iliac arteries were treated endoluminally. Beginning in 2005, indication for EVAR was expanded to aortoiliac aneurysms with a minimum neck length of 15 mm. Preoperative risk was assessed by the SVS/AAVS comorbidity score. During the first period (1997-2004) 18.4% (16/87) of all patients received EVAR. By extending anatomical confines and indications for EVAR in 2005, the utilization rate of EVAR increased to 40.0% (18/45) during the second period (2005-July 2008; p = 0.007). Prevalence of preoperative risk factors did not change during the two observation periods. In contrast to period 1, high-risk patients were preferentially treated endoluminally during the second period, resulting in a significantly higher median SVS/AAVS score in the EVAR group (p < 0.001). A significant decrease in median length of stay at the intensive/intermediate care unit (5 vs. 2 days; p = 0.006) and length of in-hospital stay (20 vs. 12.5 days; p < 0.001) was observed during period 2. Overall perioperative mortality was reduced from 6.9% during the first period to 2.2% during the second period (p = 0.256). EVAR mortality was 0%, mortality after

  14. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Mortality coefficients among personnel of radiochemical plants of open-quotes Mayakclose quotes-Combine for 40-year period of observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshurnikova, N.A.; Komleva, N.S.; Baisogolov, G.D.

    1993-01-01

    The results of the epidemiological research, conducted among the personnel of the radiochemical plants of open-quotes Mayakclose quotes. Combine are as follows: during the 40-year-period of observation the mortality rate from all and separate causes, except age, is lower, than the expected one, which is calculated on the basis of the National Statistics. Oncological mortality rate is reliably higher, than the expected one, which is conditioned by the high frequency of lung cancer and leucaemia. Internal α-irradiation plays the leading role in the induction of lung cancer, and the increase of mortality rate from leukemia is closely connected with external γ-irradiation

  16. Studies on health risks to persons exposed to plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voelz, G.L.; Stebbings, J.H. Jr.; Healy, J.W.; Hempelmann, L.H.

    1979-01-01

    Two studies on Los Alamos workers exposed to plutonium have shown no increase in cancers of the lung, bone, and liver, three principal cancers of interest following plutonium deposition. A clinical study of 26 workers exposed 32 years ago shows no cases of cancer other than two skin cancers that were excised successfully. A mortality study of 224 workers, all persons with estimated deposition of 10 nCi or moe in 1974, showed no excess of mortality due to any cause. No bone or liver cancers were present, while one death due to lung cancer was observed as compared to an expected three cases. These negative findings on such small groups are not able to prove or disprove the validity of commonly used risk estimates as recommended in the 1972 BEIR and 1977 UNSCEAR reports, but the data do indicate that much higher risk estimates are not warranted

  17. Studies on health risks to persons exposed to plutonium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voelz, G.L.; Stebbings, J.H. Jr.; Healy, J.W.; Hempelmann, L.H.

    1979-01-01

    Two studies on Los Alamos workers exposed to plutonium have shown no increase in cancers of the lung, bone, and liver, three principal cancers of interest following plutonium deposition. A clinical study of 26 workers exposed 32 years ago shows no cases of cancer other than two skin cancers that were excised successfully. A mortality study of 224 workers, all persons with estimated deposition of 10 nCi or moe in 1974, showed no excess of mortality due to any cause. No bone or liver cancers were present, while one death due to lung cancer was observed as compared to an expected three cases. These negative findings on such small groups are not able to prove or disprove the validity of commonly used risk estimates as recommended in the 1972 BEIR and 1977 UNSCEAR reports, but the data do indicate that much higher risk estimates are not warranted.

  18. Functional status and all-cause mortality in serious mental illness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D Hayes

    Full Text Available Serious mental illness can affect many aspects of an individual's ability to function in daily life. The aim of this investigation was to determine if the environmental and functional status of people with serious mental illness contribute to the high mortality risk observed in this patient group.We identified cases of schizophrenia, schizoaffective and bipolar disorder aged ≥ 15 years in a large secondary mental healthcare case register linked to national mortality tracing. We modelled the effect of activities of daily living (ADLs, living conditions, occupational and recreational activities and relationship factors (Health of the Nation Outcome Scale [HoNOS] subscales on all-cause mortality over a 4-year observation period (2007-10 using Cox regression.We identified 6,880 SMI cases (242 deaths in the observation period. ADL impairment was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.3-2.8; p = 0.001, p for trend across ADL categories = 0.001 after controlling for a broad range of covariates (including demographic factors, physical health, mental health symptoms and behaviours, socio-economic status and mental health service contact. No associations were found for the other three exposures. Stratification by age indicated that ADLs were most strongly associated with mortality in the youngest (15 to <35 years and oldest (≥ 55 years groups.Functional impairment in people with serious mental illness diagnoses is a marker of increased mortality risk, possibly in younger age groups as a marker of negative symptomatology.

  19. Blood trihalomethane levels and the risk of total cancer mortality in US adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although animal data have suggested the carcinogenic activity of trihalomethanes (THMs), there is inconsistent evidence supporting the link between THM exposure and cancers in humans. Objectives: We investigated the association between specific and total blood THM levels with the risk of total cancer mortality in adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 1999–2004 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Linked Mortality File of the United States. A total of 933 adults (20–59 years of age) with available blood THM levels and no missing data for other variables were included. Four different THM species (chloroform, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform) were included, and the codes associated with cancer (malignant neoplasm) were C00 through C97, based on the underlying causes of death listed in the International Classification of Disease 10the Revision. Results: Compared with adults in the lowest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles, those in the highest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles exhibited adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of total cancer mortality of 4.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.59–15.50), 4.94 (95% CI = 1.56–15.61), and 3.42 (95% CI = 1.21–15.43) respectively. The risk of total cancer mortality was not associated with increases in blood chloroform and total THM levels. Conclusions: We found that the baseline blood THM species, particularly brominated THMs, were significantly associated with total cancer mortality in adults. Although this study should be confirm by other studies, our findings suggest a possible link between THM exposures and cancer. - Highlights: • Trihalomethanes (THM) are classified as either probable or possible carcinogens. • Limited evidence on the link between THM and the incidence of cancer in humans. • We investigated the association between blood THM levels and the risk of total cancer mortality. • High

  20. Life expectancy and life expectancy with disability of normal weight, overweight, and obese smokers and nonsmokers in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majer, Istvan M; Nusselder, Wilma J; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

    2011-07-01

    The goal of this study was to estimate life expectancy (LE) and LE with disability (LwD) among normal weight, overweight, and obese smokers and nonsmokers in Western Europe. Data from four waves (1998-2001) of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) were used; a standardized multipurpose annual longitudinal survey. Self-reported health and socioeconomic information was collected repeatedly using uniform questionnaires for 66,331 individuals in nine countries. Health status was measured in terms of disability in daily activities. Multistate Markov (MSM) models were applied to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and age-specific transition rates according to BMI and smoking status. Multistate life tables were computed using the predicted transition probabilities to estimate LE and LwD. Significant associations were observed between disability incidence and BMI (HR = 1.15 for overweight, HR = 1.64 for obese, compared to normal weight). The risk of mortality was negatively associated with overweight status among disabled (HR = 0.77). Overweight people had higher LE than people with normal-weight and obesity. Among women, overweight and obese nonsmokers expect 3.6 and 6.1 more years of LwD than normal weight persons, respectively. In contrast, daily smokers expect lower LE but a similar LwD. The same patterns were observed among people with high education and those with low education. To conclude, daily smoking is associated with mortality more than with disability, whereas obesity is associated with disability more than with mortality. The findings suggest that further tobacco control would contribute to increasing LE, while tackling the obesity epidemic is necessary to prevent an expansion of disability.

  1. Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Jim T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks.

  2. On the relationship between period and cohort mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Wilmoth

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I explore the formal relationship between period and cohort mortality, focusing on a comparison of measures of mean lifespan. I consider not only the usual measures (life expectancy at birth for time periods and birth cohorts but also some alternative measures that have been proposed recently. I examine (and reject the claim made by Bongaarts and Feeney that the level of period is distorted, or biased, due to changes in the timing of mortality. I show that their proposed alternative measure, called "tempo-adjusted" life expectancy, is exactly equivalent in its generalized form to a measure proposed by both Brouard and Guillot, the cross-sectional average length of life (or CAL, which substitutes cohort survival probabilities for their period counterparts in the calculation of mean lifespan. I conclude that this measure does not in any sense correct for a distortion in period life expectancy at birth, but rather offers an alternative measure of mean lifespan that is approximately equal to two analytically interesting quantities: 1 the mean age at death in a given year for a hypothetical population subject to observed historical mortality conditions but with a constant annual number of births; and 2 the mean age at death, , for a cohort born years ago. However, I also observe that the trend in period does indeed offer a biased depiction of the pace of change in mean lifespan from cohort to cohort. Holding other factors constant, an historical increase in life expectancy at birth is somewhat faster when viewed from the perspective of cohorts (i.e., year of birth than from the perspective of periods (i.e., year of death.

  3. Overweight Without Central Obesity, Cardiovascular Risk, and All-Cause Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Liu, Chen; Chen, Yili; He, Jiangui; Dong, Yugang

    2018-04-12

    To assess the association of overweight without central obesity with risks of mortality. We included 14,299 participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (from October 18, 1988, through October 15, 1994). According to their body mass index and waist circumference, participants were categorized into 7 anthropometric groups. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, or hypercholesterolemia) and 10-year cardiovascular risk to anthropometric groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of all-cause mortality, and competing-risks regression models were used for calculating cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Compared with those with normal body mass index and waist circumference, overweight men without central obesity were more likely to have all 3 cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk, whereas women in this anthropometric group were more likely to have hypercholesterolemia. In proportional hazards models, overweight without central obesity was associated with lower all-cause mortality among men in the population with cardiovascular risk factors (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.89; P=.004) and the general population (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.87; P=.001), whereas results of these comparisons among women were not significant (P>.05). In competing risk analyses, overweight men without central obesity had a lower risk of noncardiovascular mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Although overweight without central obesity was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk among men, men in this anthropometric group had a lower mortality risk. Copyright © 2018 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Life expectancy inequalities in the elderly by socioeconomic status: evidence from Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallo, Carlo; Raitano, Michele

    2018-04-12

    Life expectancy considerably increased in most developed countries during the twentieth century. However, the increase in longevity is neither uniform nor random across individuals belonging to various socioeconomic groups. From an economic policy perspective, the difference in mortality by socioeconomic conditions challenges the fairness of the social security systems. We focus on the case of Italy and aim at measuring differences in longevity at older ages by individuals belonging to different socioeconomic groups, also in order to assess the effective fairness of the Italian public pension system, which is based on a notional defined contribution (NDC) benefit computation formula, whose rules do not take into account individual heterogeneity in expected longevity. We use a longitudinal dataset that matches survey data on individual features recorded in the Italian module of the EU-SILC, with information on the whole working life and until death collected in the administrative archives managed by the Italian National Social Security Institute. In more detail, we follow until 2009 a sample of 11,281 individuals aged at least 60 in 2005. We use survival analysis and measure the influence of a number of events experienced in the labor market and individual characteristics on mortality. Furthermore, through Kaplan-Meier simulations of hypothetical social groups, adjusted by a Brass relational model, we estimate and compare differences in life expectancy of individuals belonging to different socioeconomic groups. Our findings confirm that socioeconomic status strongly predicts life expectancy even in old age. All estimated models show that the prevalent type of working activity before retirement is significantly associated with the risk of death, even when controlling for dozens of variables as proxies of individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The risk of death for self-employed individuals is 26% lower than that of employees, and life expectancy at

  5. Income inequality, individual income, and mortality in Danish adults: analysis of pooled data from two cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, Merete; Prescott, Eva; Grønbaek, Morten

    2002-01-01

    To analyse the association between area income inequality and mortality after adjustment for individual income and other established risk factors.......To analyse the association between area income inequality and mortality after adjustment for individual income and other established risk factors....

  6. The use of selective serotonin receptor inhibitors (SSRIs) is not associated with increased risk of endoscopy-refractory bleeding, rebleeding or mortality in peptic ulcer bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, S B; Leontiadis, G I; Stanley, A J; Hallas, J; Schaffalitzky de Muckadell, O B

    2017-08-01

    Observational studies have consistently shown an increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in users of selective serotonin receptor inhibitors (SSRIs), probably explained by their inhibition of platelet aggregation. Therefore, treatment with SSRIs is often temporarily withheld in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. However, abrupt discontinuation of SSRIs is associated with development of withdrawal symptoms in one-third of patients. Further data are needed to clarify whether treatment with SSRIs is associated with poor outcomes, which would support temporary discontinuation of treatment. To identify if treatment with SSRIs is associated with increased risk of: (1) endoscopy-refractory bleeding, (2) rebleeding or (3) 30-day mortality due to peptic ulcer bleeding. A nationwide cohort study. Analyses were performed on prospectively collected data on consecutive patients admitted to hospital with peptic ulcer bleeding in Denmark in the period 2006-2014. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association between treatment with SSRIs and outcome following adjustment for pre-defined confounders. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate the validity of the findings. A total of 14 343 patients were included. Following adjustment, treatment with SSRIs was not associated with increased risk of endoscopy-refractory bleeding (odds ratio [OR] [95% Confidence Interval (CI)]: 1.03 [0.79-1.33]), rebleeding (OR [95% CI]: 0.96 [0.83-1.11]) or 30-day mortality (OR [95% CI]: 1.01 [0.85-1.19]. These findings were supported by sensitivity and subgroup analyses. According to our data, treatment with SSRIs does not influence the risk of endoscopy-refractory bleeding, rebleeding or 30-day mortality in peptic ulcer bleeding. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Depressive symptoms, physical inactivity and risk of cardiovascular mortality in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Win, Sithu; Parakh, Kapil; Eze-Nliam, Chete M; Gottdiener, John S; Kop, Willem J

    2011-01-01

    Background Depressed older individuals have a higher mortality than older persons without depression. Depression is associated with physical inactivity, and low levels of physical activity have been shown in some cohorts to be a partial mediator of the relationship between depression and cardiovascular events and mortality. Methods A cohort of 5888 individuals (mean 72.8±5.6 years, 58% female, 16% African-American) from four US communities was followed for an average of 10.3 years. Self-reported depressive symptoms (10-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) were assessed annually and self-reported physical activity was assessed at baseline and at 3 and 7 years. To estimate how much of the increased risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with depressive symptoms was due to physical inactivity, Cox regression with time-varying covariates was used to determine the percentage change in the log HR of depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality after adding physical activity variables. Results At baseline, 20% of participants scored above the cut-off for depressive symptoms. There were 2915 deaths (49.8%), of which 1176 (20.1%) were from cardiovascular causes. Depressive symptoms and physical inactivity each independently increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality and were strongly associated with each other (all pphysical inactivity had greater cardiovascular mortality than those with either individually (pPhysical inactivity reduced the log HR of depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality by 26% after adjustment. This was similar for persons with (25%) and without (23%) established coronary heart disease. Conclusions Physical inactivity accounted for a significant proportion of the risk of cardiovascular mortality due to depressive symptoms in older adults, regardless of coronary heart disease status. PMID:21339320

  8. Cancer mortality in Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.; Gilbert, E.S.; Breitenstein, B.D.

    1978-01-01

    Personnel and radiation exposure data for past and present employees of the Hanford plant have been collected and analysed for a possible relationship of exposure to mortality. The occurrence of death in workers was established by the Social Security Administration and the cause of death obtained from death certificates. Mortality from all causes, all cancer cases and specific cancer types was related to the population at risk. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated for white males, using age- and calendar year-specific mortality rates for the U.S. population in the calculation of expected deaths. This analysis showed a substantial 'healthy worker effect' and no significantly high standardized mortality ratios for specific disease categories. A test for association of mortality with levels of radiation exposure revealed no correlation for all causes and all cancer. In carrying out this test, adjustment was made for age and calendar year of death, length of employment and occupational category. A statistically significant test for trend was obtained for multiple myeloma and carcinoma of the pancreas. However, in view of the absence of such a correlation for diseases more commonly associated with radiation exposure such as myeloid leukaemia, as well as the small number of deaths in higher exposure groups, the results cannot be considered definitive. Any conclusions based on these associations should be viewed in relation to the results of other studies. These results are compared with those of other investigators who have analysed the Hanford data. (author)

  9. Social networks and mortality based on the Komo-Ise cohort study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwasaki, Motoki; Otani, Tetsuya; Sunaga, Rumiko; Miyazaki, Hiroko; Xiao, Liu; Wang, Naren; Yosiaki, Sasazawa; Suzuki, Shosuke

    2002-12-01

    No prospective studies have examined the association between social networks and all-cause and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged Japanese. The study of varied populations may contribute to clarifying the robustness of the observed effects of social networks and extend their generalizability. To clarify the association between social networks and mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese, a community-based prospective study, the Komo-Ise Study, was conducted in two areas of Gunma Prefecture, Japan. A total of 11 565 subjects aged 40-69 years at baseline in 1993 completed a self-administered questionnaire. During the 7-year follow-up period, 335 men and 155 women died and the relative risk (RR) of each social network item was estimated by the Cox proportional hazard model. Single women had significantly increased risks of all-cause (multivariate RR = 2.2), and all circulatory system disease (age-area adjusted RR = 2.6) mortality. Men who did not participate in hobbies, club activities, or community groups had significantly higher multivariate RR for all-cause (RR = 1.5), all circulatory system disease (RR = 1.6) and non-cancer and non-circulatory system disease (RR = 2.3) mortality. Urban women who rarely or never met close relatives had significantly elevated risks of all-cause (RR = 2.4), all cancer (RR = 2.6), and non-cancer and non-circulatory system disease (RR = 2.7) mortality after adjustment for established risk factors. This study provides evidence that social networks are an important predictor of mortality risk for middle-aged and elderly Japanese men and women. Lack of participation, for men, and being single and lack of meeting close relatives, for women, were independent risk factors for mortality.

  10. Muscle mass, BMI, and mortality among adults in the United States: A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramowitz, Matthew K; Hall, Charles B; Amodu, Afolarin; Sharma, Deep; Androga, Lagu; Hawkins, Meredith

    2018-01-01

    The level of body-mass index (BMI) associated with the lowest risk of death remains unclear. Although differences in muscle mass limit the utility of BMI as a measure of adiposity, no study has directly examined the effect of muscle mass on the BMI-mortality relationship. Body composition was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry in 11,687 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. Low muscle mass was defined using sex-specific thresholds of the appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI). Proportional hazards models were created to model associations with all-cause mortality. At any level of BMI ≥22, participants with low muscle mass had higher body fat percentage (%TBF), an increased likelihood of diabetes, and higher adjusted mortality than other participants. Increases in %TBF manifested as 30-40% smaller changes in BMI than were observed in participants with preserved muscle mass. Excluding participants with low muscle mass or adjustment for ASMI attenuated the risk associated with low BMI, magnified the risk associated with high BMI, and shifted downward the level of BMI associated with the lowest risk of death. Higher ASMI was independently associated with lower mortality. Effects were similar in never-smokers and ever-smokers. Additional adjustment for waist circumference eliminated the risk associated with higher BMI. Results were unchanged after excluding unintentional weight loss, chronic illness, early mortality, and participants performing muscle-strengthening exercises or recommended levels of physical activity. Muscle mass mediates associations of BMI with adiposity and mortality and is inversely associated with the risk of death. After accounting for muscle mass, the BMI associated with the greatest survival shifts downward toward the normal range. These results provide a concrete explanation for the obesity paradox.

  11. A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steen, J.T.; Albers, G.; Strunk, E.; Muller, M.T.; Ribbe, M.W.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in

  12. Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

    2011-01-01

    Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

  13. State-space modeling of the relationship between air quality and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, C J; Nelson, C R

    2000-07-01

    A portion of a population is assumed to be at risk, with the mortality hazard varying with atmospheric conditions including total suspended particulates (TSP). This at-risk population is not observed and the hazard function is unknown; we wish to estimate these from mortality count and atmospheric variables. Consideration of population dynamics leads to a state-space representation, allowing the Kalman Filter (KF) to be used for estimation. A harvesting effect is thus implied; high mortality is followed by lower mortality until the population is replenished by new arrivals. The model is applied to daily data for Philadelphia, PA, 1973-1990. The estimated hazard function rises with the level of TSP and at extremes of temperature and also reflects a positive interaction between TSP and temperature. The estimated at-risk population averages about 480 and varies seasonally. We find that lags of TSP are statistically significant, but the presence of negative coefficients suggests their role may be partially statistical rather than biological. In the population dynamics framework, the natural metric for health damage from air pollution is its impact on life expectancy. The range of hazard rates over the sample period is 0.07 to 0.085, corresponding to life expectancies of 14.3 and 11.8 days, respectively.

  14. Socioeconomic status (SES) and childhood acute myeloid leukemia (AML) mortality risk: Analysis of SEER data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoble, Naomi B; Alderfer, Melissa A; Hossain, Md Jobayer

    2016-10-01

    Socioeconomic status (SES) is a complex construct of multiple indicators, known to impact cancer outcomes, but has not been adequately examined among pediatric AML patients. This study aimed to identify the patterns of co-occurrence of multiple community-level SES indicators and to explore associations between various patterns of these indicators and pediatric AML mortality risk. A nationally representative US sample of 3651 pediatric AML patients, aged 0-19 years at diagnosis was drawn from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database registries created between 1973 and 2012. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, stratified univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. Four SES factors accounting for 87% of the variance in SES indicators were identified: F1) economic/educational disadvantage, less immigration; F2) immigration-related features (foreign-born, language-isolation, crowding), less mobility; F3) housing instability; and, F4) absence of moving. F1 and F3 showed elevated risk of mortality, adjusted hazards ratios (aHR) (95% CI): 1.07(1.02-1.12) and 1.05(1.00-1.10), respectively. Seven SES-defined cluster groups were identified. Cluster 1 (low economic/educational disadvantage, few immigration-related features, and residential-stability) showed the minimum risk of mortality. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3 (high economic/educational disadvantage, high-mobility) and Cluster 6 (moderately-high economic/educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features) exhibited substantially greater risk of mortality, aHR(95% CI)=1.19(1.0-1.4) and 1.23 (1.1-1.5), respectively. Factors of correlated SES-indicators and their pattern-based groups demonstrated differential risks in the pediatric AML mortality indicating the need of special public-health attention in areas with economic-educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All

  15. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels are U-shaped in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC study-Impact for mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainer P Woitas

    Full Text Available Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL is a glycoprotein released by damaged renal tubular cells and mature neutrophils. It is elevated in kidney injury, but also in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD and myocardial infarction. We investigated the prognostic value of NGAL for total and cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography without history of renal insufficiency at inclusion into the study.The LURIC study is an ongoing prospective cohort study of patients referred for coronary angiography and is designed to evaluate determinants of cardiovascular health.NGAL was determined in plasma of 2997 persons (mean age: 62.7 years; 69.7% men with a follow up for 10 years. 2358 patients suffered from CAD and 638 did not-these patients served as controls. Stable CAD was found in 1408 and unstable CAD in 950 patients. Death rate from cardiovascular events and all causes was highest in patients within the 4th quartile of NGAL (≥56 ng/ml, p<0.001 vs third quartile, even after adjustment for age and gender. According to multivariable-adjusted Cox analysis adjusting for well-known cardiovascular risk factors, as well as lipid lowering therapy, angiographic CAD, and C-reactive protein we found patients in the highest NGAL quartile being at increased risk for cardiovascular (hazard ratio (HR 1.33, 95%CI 1.05-1.67, p = 0.016 and all cause mortality (HR 1.29 95%CI 1.07-1.55, p = 0.007 compared to those in the third quartile. The lowest risk was seen in the third quartile of NGAL (41-56 ng/ml suggesting a U-shaped relationship between NGAL and mortality. Further adjustment for creatinine abrogated the predictive effect of NGAL. However, the 3rd and 4th quartiles of NGAL were significantly associated with higher neutrophil counts, which were associated with CAD, non-ST elevation and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (p<0.05.Plasma NGAL concentrations are mainly derived from neutrophils and do not predict mortality

  16. Health-Related Quality of Life Impacts Mortality but Not Progression to End-Stage Renal Disease in Pre-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesky, Mark D; Dutton, Mary; Dasgupta, Indranil; Yadav, Punit; Ng, Khai Ping; Fenton, Anthony; Kyte, Derek; Ferro, Charles J; Calvert, Melanie; Cockwell, Paul; Stringer, Stephanie J

    2016-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with reduced health-related quality of life (HRQL). However, the relationship between pre-dialysis CKD, HRQL and clinical outcomes, including mortality and progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is unclear. All 745 participants recruited into the Renal Impairment In Secondary Care study to end March 2014 were included. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline including an assessment of HRQL using the Euroqol EQ-5D-3L. Health states were converted into an EQ-5Dindex score using a set of weighted preferences specific to the UK population. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk analyses were undertaken to evaluate the association of HRQL with progression to ESRD or all-cause mortality. Regression analyses were then performed to identify variables associated with the significant HRQL components. Median eGFR was 25.8 ml/min/1.73 m2 (IQR 19.6-33.7ml/min) and median ACR was 33 mg/mmol (IQR 6.6-130.3 mg/mmol). Five hundred and fifty five participants (75.7%) reported problems with one or more EQ-5D domains. When adjusted for age, gender, comorbidity, eGFR and ACR, both reported problems with self-care [hazard ratio 2.542, 95% confidence interval 1.222-5.286, p = 0.013] and reduced EQ-5Dindex score [hazard ratio 0.283, 95% confidence interval 0.099-0.810, p = 0.019] were significantly associated with an increase in all-cause mortality. Similar findings were observed for competing risk analyses. Reduced HRQL was not a risk factor for progression to ESRD in multivariable analyses. Impaired HRQL is common in the pre-dialysis CKD population. Reduced HRQL, as demonstrated by problems with self-care or a lower EQ-5Dindex score, is associated with a higher risk for death but not ESRD. Multiple factors influence these aspects of HRQL but renal function, as measured by eGFR and ACR, are not among them.

  17. Predicting mortality from human faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykiert, Dominika; Bates, Timothy C; Gow, Alan J; Penke, Lars; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether and to what extent mortality is predictable from facial photographs of older people. High-quality facial photographs of 292 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921, taken at the age of about 83 years, were rated in terms of apparent age, health, attractiveness, facial symmetry, intelligence, and well-being by 12 young-adult raters. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study associations between these ratings and mortality during a 7-year follow-up period. All ratings had adequate reliability. Concurrent validity was found for facial symmetry and intelligence (as determined by correlations with actual measures of fluctuating asymmetry in the faces and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices score, respectively), but not for the other traits. Age as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, was a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.65) and remained significant even after controlling for concurrent, objectively measured health and cognitive ability, and the other ratings. Health as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.99) but not after adjusting for rated age or objectively measured health and cognition. Rated attractiveness, symmetry, intelligence, and well-being were not significantly associated with mortality risk. Rated age of the face is a significant predictor of mortality risk among older people, with predictive value over and above that of objective or rated health status and cognitive ability.

  18. Leisure-Time Physical Activity Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Dementia-Related Mortality in Adults With and Without Psychological Distress: The Cohort of Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zotcheva, Ekaterina; Selbæk, Geir; Bjertness, Espen; Ernstsen, Linda; Strand, Bjørn H

    2018-01-01

    Background: Leisure-time physical activity (PA) has been proposed as a protective factor against dementia, whereas psychological distress is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We investigated the associations of leisure-time PA and psychological distress with dementia-related mortality, and whether the association between leisure-time PA and dementia-related mortality differs according to level of psychological distress. Methods: 36,945 individuals from the Cohort of Norway aged 50-74 years at baseline (1994-2002) were included and followed up until January 1st 2015. Leisure-time PA and psychological distress were assessed through questionnaires, whereas dementia-related mortality was obtained through the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Adjusted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Compared to inactivity, leisure-time PA was associated with a decreased risk of dementia-related mortality; low intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.89); high intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.61, 95%CI 0.49-0.77). A statistically significant difference in dementia-related mortality risk was observed between low and high intensity leisure-time PA ( p leisure-time PA was associated with a decreased dementia-related mortality risk; low intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.97); high intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.51-0.84). The same applied for those with psychological distress; low intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.35-0.94); high intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.22-0.82). The interaction between leisure-time PA and psychological distress on dementia-related mortality was not statistically significant ( p = 0.38). Conclusions: Participating in leisure-time PA was associated with a reduced risk of dementia-related mortality, whereas psychological distress was associated with an increased risk of dementia-related mortality. Leisure

  19. LIFETIME PHYSICAL INACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LUNG CANCER RISK AND MORTALITY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannioto, Rikki; Etter, John Lewis; LaMonte, Michael J; Ray, Andrew D; Joseph, Janine M; Al Qassim, Emad; Eng, Kevin H; Moysich, Kirsten B

    2018-01-01

    Investigations of the independent associations of physical inactivity with cancer endpoints have been mounting in the epidemiological literature, in part due to the high prevalence of physical inactivity among cancer patients and to evidence that inactivity associates with carcinogenesis via pathways independent of obesity. Yet, physical inactivity is not currently recognized as a well-established risk or prognostic factor for lung cancer. As such, we examined the associations of lifetime physical inactivity with lung cancer risk and mortality in a hospital-based, case-control study. Materials and Methods: The analyses included data from 660 lung cancer patients and 1335 matched cancer-free controls. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were utilized to assess the association between lifetime physical inactivity and lung cancer risk, and Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate the association between lifetime physical inactivity and mortality among lung cancer cases. Results: We observed a significant positive association between lifetime physical inactivity and lung cancer risk: [Odds ratio (OR)=2.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.77-2.81]; the association remained significant among never smokers (OR=3.00, 95% CI:1.33-6.78) and non-smokers (OR=2.33, 95% CI: 1.79-3.02). We also observed a significant positive association between lifetime physical inactivity and lung cancer mortality [Hazard ratio (HR)=1.40, 95% CI: 1.14-1.71]; the association remained significant in non-smokers (HR=1.51, 95% CI: 1.16-1.95). These data add to the body of evidence suggesting that physical inactivity is an independent risk and prognostic factor for cancer. Additional research utilizing prospectively collected data is needed to substantiate the current findings.

  20. Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine Husøy Onarheim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011-2015. We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011-2015. Interventions are scaled-up to 1 government target levels, 2 90% coverage and 3 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini(health substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19. CONCLUSIONS: The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini(health.

  1. Lifestyle factors and mortality risk in individuals with diabetes mellitus: are the associations different from those in individuals without diabetes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sluik, Diewertje; Boeing, Heiner; Li, Kuanrong; Kaaks, Rudolf; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Tjønneland, Anne; Arriola, Larraitz; Barricarte, Aurelio; Masala, Giovanna; Grioni, Sara; Tumino, Rosario; Ricceri, Fulvio; Mattiello, Amalia; Spijkerman, Annemieke M W; van der A, Daphne L; Sluijs, Ivonne; Franks, Paul W; Nilsson, Peter M; Orho-Melander, Marju; Fhärm, Eva; Rolandsson, Olov; Riboli, Elio; Romaguera, Dora; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Nöthlings, Ute

    2014-01-01

    Thus far, it is unclear whether lifestyle recommendations for people with diabetes should be different from those for the general public. We investigated whether the associations between lifestyle factors and mortality risk differ between individuals with and without diabetes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort was formed of 6,384 persons with diabetes and 258,911 EPIC participants without known diabetes. Joint Cox proportional hazard regression models of people with and without diabetes were built for the following lifestyle factors in relation to overall mortality risk: BMI, waist/height ratio, 26 food groups, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking. Likelihood ratio tests for heterogeneity assessed statistical differences in regression coefficients. Multivariable adjusted mortality risk among individuals with diabetes compared with those without was increased, with an HR of 1.62 (95% CI 1.51, 1.75). Intake of fruit, legumes, nuts, seeds, pasta, poultry and vegetable oil was related to a lower mortality risk, and intake of butter and margarine was related to an increased mortality risk. These associations were significantly different in magnitude from those in diabetes-free individuals, but directions were similar. No differences between people with and without diabetes were detected for the other lifestyle factors. Diabetes status did not substantially influence the associations between lifestyle and mortality risk. People with diabetes may benefit more from a healthy diet, but the directions of association were similar. Thus, our study suggests that lifestyle advice with respect to mortality for patients with diabetes should not differ from recommendations for the general population.

  2. Geographic variation of gallbladder cancer mortality and risk factors in Chile: a population-based ecologic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andia, Marcelo E.; Hsing, Ann W.; Andreotti, Gabriella; Ferreccio, Catterina

    2010-01-01

    Chile’s gallbladder cancer rates are among the highest in the world, being the first cancer killer among Chilean women. To provide insights into the etiology of gallbladder cancer, we conducted an ecologic study examining the geographical variation of gallbladder cancer and several putative risk factors. The relative risk of dying from gallbladder cancer (relative to the national average mortality rate) between 1985 and 2003 was estimated for each of the 333 Chilean counties, using a hierarchical Poisson regression model, adjusting for age, sex, and geographical location. The risk of gallbladder cancer mortality was analyzed in relation to region (costal, inland, northern, and southern), poverty, Amerindian (Mapuche) population, typhoid fever, and access to cholecystectomy, using logistic regression analysis. There were 27,183 gallbladder cancer deaths, age-sex-adjusted county mortality rates ranging from 8.2 to 12.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, being higher in inland and southern regions; compare to the north-coastal, the northern-inland region had a 10-fold risk odds ratio (OR) (95% of confidence interval (95% CI): 2.4–42.2) and the southern-inland region had a 26-fold risk (OR 95%CI: 6.0–114.2). Independent risk factors for gallbladder cancer were: ethnicity (Mapuche) OR:3.9 (95%CI 1.8–8.7), typhoid fever OR:2.9 (95%CI 1.2–6.9), poverty OR:5.1 (95%CI 1.6–15.9), low access to cholecystectomy OR:3.9 (95%CI 1.5–10.1), low access to hospital care OR:14.2 (95%CI 4.2–48.7) and high urbanization OR:8.0 (95%CI 3.4–18.7). Our results suggest that gallbladder cancer in Chile may be related to both genetic factors and poor living conditions. Future analytic studies are needed to further clarify the role of these factors in gallbladder cancer etiology. PMID:18566990

  3. Mortality patterns among a retrospective cohort of uranium mill workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waxweiler, R.J.; Archer, V.E.; Roscoe, R.J.; Watanabe, A.; Thun, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    The long-term health effects associated with the milling of uranium ore are of interest particularly because of exposures to uranium and thorium-230. Excess risks of pulmonary and lymphatic malignancies have been suggested by previous epdiemiologic studies of persons milling or smelting uranium ores, and nephrotoxic effects of uranium have been reported in both man and animals. To test these three previously reported associations and to assess all cause-specific mortality patterns among uranium mill workers, we carried out a retrospective cohort study of 2002 uranium millers employed in any of seven mills at least one year before 1972. Ninety-eight percent (98%) followup of the cohort through 1977 resulted in 533 deaths observed versus 605 expected from US White male mortality rates. Mortality from most causes was lower than expected. Significant excess risks were found only for nonmalignant respiratory disease and miscellaneous accidents but not for any of the three diseases of a priori interest. However, nonsignificant excesses were found for lymphatic malignancies after 20 years latency and for death due to chronic nephritis among short-term workers

  4. Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Shane A; Shelley, Julia M; Stevenson, Christopher

    2017-12-01

    A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01-1.09), business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08), earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08) and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03-1.10) measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z -score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years) only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

  5. Increased risk of all-cause mortality and renal graft loss in stable renal transplant recipients with hyperparathyroidism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pihlstrøm, Hege; Dahle, Dag Olav; Mjøen, Geir; Pilz, Stefan; März, Winfried; Abedini, Sadollah; Holme, Ingar; Fellström, Bengt; Jardine, Alan G; Holdaas, Hallvard

    2015-02-01

    Hyperparathyroidism is reported in 10% to 66% of renal transplant recipients (RTR). The influence of persisting hyperparathyroidism on long-term clinical outcomes in RTR has not been examined in a large prospective study. We investigated the association between baseline parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels and major cardiovascular events, renal graft loss, and all-cause mortality by Cox Proportional Hazard survival analyses in 1840 stable RTR derived from the Assessment of LEscol in Renal Transplantation trial. Patients were recruited in a mean of 5.1 years after transplantation, and follow-up time was 6 to 7 years. Significant associations between PTH and all 3 outcomes were found in univariate analyses. When adjusting for a range of plausible confounders, including measures of renal function and serum mineral levels, PTH remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (4% increased risk per 10 units; P=0.004), and with graft loss (6% increased risk per 10 units; PHyperparathyroidism is an independent, potentially remediable, risk factor for renal graft loss and all-cause mortality in RTR.

  6. The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

    2015-01-01

    Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Digoxin use and risk of mortality in hypertensive patients with atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Hille, Darcy A; Wachtell, Kristian

    2015-01-01

    , diabetes, history of ischemic heart disease, stroke, or heart failure, baseline Cornell product, QRS duration, heart rate, serum glucose, creatinine and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and a propensity score for digoxin use entered as standard covariates, and for in-treatment heart rate, pulse...... patients with atrial fibrillation has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: All-cause mortality was examined in relation to in-treatment digoxin use in 937 hypertensive patients with ECG left ventricular hypertrophy in atrial fibrillation at baseline (n = 134) or who developed atrial fibrillation during...... fibrillation, digoxin use is not associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality after adjusting for other independent predictors of death and for the factors associated with the propensity to use digoxin in this population. These findings suggest that factors other than digoxin use may...

  8. [Adherence to pharmaceutical guidance in patients over 85 years of age with chronic heart failure-stage C. Effects on 12-month mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteve Arríen, Ainhoa; Domínguez de Pablos, Gema; Minaya Saiz, Jesús

    2009-01-01

    To describe factors related to prescription on discharge of treatment for Chronic Heart Failure(CHF)-Stage C and to analyse whether this is related to 12month-mortality. Observational follow-up study of patients over 85 hospitalized during 2006/7 with Stage C-Chronic Heart Failure in an outskirt support hospital. Drug-prescription adherence was assessed according to the American Heart Society 2005-Guidelines and recommendations of the American Geriatrics Society-2007. A multivariate analysis of logistic regression was performed to obtain odds for 12-month mortality for each recommended therapy, adjusting by mortality risk factors. 104 patients aged 90+/-3yr were followed on discharge, 85% of which were women. NYHA-classes were distributed NYHA I-28,2%, II-37,9%, III-30,1%, IV-3,9%. Most frequently prescribed drugs were loop diuretics (83,3%) and IACEs/ARB (62%), and the less frequent beta-blockers (19,1%). IACEs/ARB were prescribed to those with lower functional impairment (p=0.04), and beta-blockers to those with worse NYHA class (p=0.02). All recommended prescriptions had a tendency to 12 month mortality risk reduction, even adjusted by age, functional status, co-morbidity, NYHA class and co-morbid atrial fibrillation, except for spironolactone (OR-1,8; IC95% 0,48-17,19). Treatment with CHF disease-modifying therapies except for spironolactone can reduce 12 month risk mortality, also in the oldest old. There exists room for improvement in frequency of drug prescription in this group of age.

  9. Obesity and trauma mortality: Sizing up the risks in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Bellal; Hadeed, Steven; Haider, Ansab A; Ditillo, Michael; Joseph, Aly; Pandit, Viraj; Kulvatunyou, Narong; Tang, Andrew; Latifi, Rifat; Rhee, Peter

    Protective effects of safety devices in obese motorists in motor vehicle collisions (MVC) remain unclear. Aim of our study is to assess the association between morbid obesity and mortality in MVC, and to determine the efficacy of protective devices. We hypothesised that patients with morbid obesity will be at greater risk of death after MVC. A retrospective analysis of MVC patients (age ≥16 y.o.) was performed using the National Trauma Data Bank from 2007 to 2010. Patients with recorded comorbidity of morbid obesity (BMI≥40) were identified. Patients dead on arrival, with isolated traumatic brain injury, or incomplete data were excluded. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was performed. Our sample of 214,306 MVC occupants included 10,260 (4.8%) morbidly obese patients. Mortality risk was greatest among occupants with morbid obesity (OR crude 1.74 [1.54-1.98]). After adjusting for patient demographics, safety device and physiological severity, odds of death was 1.52 [1.33-1.74] times greater in motorists with morbid obesity. Motorists with morbid obesity were at greater risk of death if no restraint (OR 1.84 [1.47-2.31]), seatbelt only (OR 1.48 [1.17-1.86]), or both seatbelt and airbag were present (OR 1.49 [1.13-1.97]). No significant differences in the odds of death exist between drivers with morbid obesity and non-morbidly obese drivers with only airbag deployment (OR 0.99 [0.65-1.51]). Motorists with morbid obesity are at greater risk of MVC. Regardless of safety device use, occupants with morbid obesity remained at greater risk of death. Further research examining the effectiveness of vehicle restraints in drivers with morbid obesity is warranted. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Mortality over an extended follow-up period in coal workers exposed to respirable dust and quartz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, B.G.; MacCalman, L.; Hutchison, P.A.

    2009-10-15

    In the 1950s the Pneumoconiosis Field Research (PFR) programme was set up to study the health of British coalworkers. Studies included regular health surveys, an intensive characterisation of workers' individual exposures, and entry to a cohort followed up to the present for cause-specific mortality. This study reports on analyses of cause-specific mortality in a cohort of almost 18,000 men from 10 collieries. External analyses used standardised mortality ratios, comparing observed mortality with reference rates from the regions in which the pits were situated. Causes investigated include lung and stomach cancers, nonmalignant respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular endpoints. Internal analyses used Cox regression models with time-dependent exposures adjusting for the confounding effects of age, smoking, cohort entry date and regional differences in population mortality rates. Several causes showed evidence of a healthy worker effect early in the follow-up, with a deficit in the SMR diminishing over time. For most of the causes there was a significant excess in the latter part of follow-up. Internal analyses found evidence of an association between increased risks of lung cancer and increased quartz exposure, particularly at a lag of 15 years. Risks of mortality from non-malignant respiratory disease, and specifically chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis, showed increases with increased exposure to respirable dust. 60 refs.

  11. Risk of acute renal failure and mortality after surgery for a fracture of the hip: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, A B; Christiansen, C F; Gammelager, H; Kahlert, J; Sørensen, H T

    2016-08-01

    We examined risk of developing acute renal failure and the associated mortality among patients aged > 65 years undergoing surgery for a fracture of the hip. We used medical databases to identify patients who underwent surgical treatment for a fracture of the hip in Northern Denmark between 2005 and 2011. Acute renal failure was classified as stage 1, 2 and 3 according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome criteria. We computed the risk of developing acute renal failure within five days after surgery with death as a competing risk, and the short-term (six to 30 days post-operatively) and long-term mortality (31 days to 365 days post-operatively). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for death with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among 13 529 patients who sustained a fracture of the hip, 1717 (12.7%) developed acute renal failure post-operatively, including 1218 (9.0%) with stage 1, 364 (2.7%) with stage 2, and 135 (1.0%) with stage 3 renal failure. The short-term mortality was 15.9% and 5.6% for patients with and without acute renal failure, respectively (HR 2.8, 95% CI 2.4 to 3.2). The long-term mortality was 25.0% and 18.3% for those with and without acute renal failure, respectively (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.5). The mortality was higher in patients with an increased severity of renal failure. Acute renal failure is a common complication of surgery in elderly patients who sustain a fracture of the hip, and is associated with increased mortality up to one year after surgery despite adjustment for coexisting comorbidity and medication before surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1112-18. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  12. Child mortality estimation: consistency of under-five mortality rate estimates using full birth histories and summary birth histories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romesh Silva

    Full Text Available Given the lack of complete vital registration data in most developing countries, for many countries it is not possible to accurately estimate under-five mortality rates from vital registration systems. Heavy reliance is often placed on direct and indirect methods for analyzing data collected from birth histories to estimate under-five mortality rates. Yet few systematic comparisons of these methods have been undertaken. This paper investigates whether analysts should use both direct and indirect estimates from full birth histories, and under what circumstances indirect estimates derived from summary birth histories should be used.Usings Demographic and Health Surveys data from West Africa, East Africa, Latin America, and South/Southeast Asia, I quantify the differences between direct and indirect estimates of under-five mortality rates, analyze data quality issues, note the relative effects of these issues, and test whether these issues explain the observed differences. I find that indirect estimates are generally consistent with direct estimates, after adjustment for fertility change and birth transference, but don't add substantial additional insight beyond direct estimates. However, choice of direct or indirect method was found to be important in terms of both the adjustment for data errors and the assumptions made about fertility.Although adjusted indirect estimates are generally consistent with adjusted direct estimates, some notable inconsistencies were observed for countries that had experienced either a political or economic crisis or stalled health transition in their recent past. This result suggests that when a population has experienced a smooth mortality decline or only short periods of excess mortality, both adjusted methods perform equally well. However, the observed inconsistencies identified suggest that the indirect method is particularly prone to bias resulting from violations of its strong assumptions about recent mortality

  13. Assessment of simple risk markers for early mortality among HIV-infected patients in Guinea-Bissau

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oliveira, Inés; Andersen, Andreas; Furtado, Alcino

    2012-01-01

    risk factors for early mortality among HIV-infected patients; (2) to assess whether these markers could help identify patients to whom ART should be prioritised and (3) to determine if these markers may add information to CD4 cell count when VL is not available. Design: An observational study. Setting......PAR quartile. Conclusions: Irrespective of ART initiation and baseline CD4 count, MUAC and suPAR plasma levels were independent predictors of early mortality in this urban cohort. These markers could be useful in identifying patients at the highest risk of short-term mortality and may aid triage for ART when...

  14. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  15. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Gong

    Full Text Available Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra, has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days plus conventional therapy (XBJ group. Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02 compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001 compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all P<0.05, but these values were significant improved in the XBJ group (all P<0.05. Only one patient had skin rash with itch within 30 minutes after injection and no severe adverse events were found in the XBJ group. In conclusion, XBJ treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  16. Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright

  17. The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance.

    OpenAIRE

    Elton, Edwin J; Gruber, Martin J; Blake, Christopher R

    1996-01-01

    The authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns. They find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with ...

  18. The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult

  19. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  20. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  1. Competition Leverage : How the Demand Side Affects Optimal Risk Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, M.; Boone, J.; Zwart, Gijsbert

    2011-01-01

    We study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First, we find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences

  2. Risk measures on networks and expected utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerqueti, Roy; Lupi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples. - Highlights: • We discuss risk acceptance and theoretically develop this theme on the basis of network theory. • We propose an original framework for describing the algebraic structure of the set of the networks, when they are viewed as risks. • We introduce the risk measures on networks, which induce total orders on the set of networks. • We state conditions on the risk measures on networks to let the induced risk-acceptance criterion be consistent with a new formulation of the expected utility theory.

  3. Loneliness and all-cause mortality in community-dwelling elderly Singaporeans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelique Chan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Loneliness is a significant risk factor for mortality among older adults. There are several pathways through which loneliness may operate to increase mortality risk, ranging from biological responses and individual perceptions to social interactions and environmental factors. The proportion of single older (65+ person households has doubled in the last ten years in Singapore. Yet little is understood about the relationship between loneliness, social isolation, and mortality risk among older adults, in Singapore and in Asian contexts in general. Objective: To assess the impact of loneliness and social isolation on the risk of all-cause mortality over a four-year period, controlling for demographic characteristics and health status at baseline. Methods: We used data from a longitudinal survey of community-dwelling Singaporean elderly (N=4,522. Loneliness was assessed using the UCLA three-item loneliness scale. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate mortality risk. Results: In the final adjusted model, living arrangements and social networks outside the household were not associated with all-cause mortality. Loneliness increased the risk of all-cause mortality; those sometimes lonely and mostly lonely were 44.0Š (p=0.005 and 39.0Š (p=0.059 more likely to die compared to those not lonely. Conclusions: Loneliness is associated with higher mortality risks among Singaporean elderly. Mental health among the older population is a major public health concern and community interventions are needed to more efficiently identify, raise awareness of, and increase care for the lonely elderly in the community.

  4. Mortality by country of birth in the Nordic countries - a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkaniemi, Helena; Bacchus-Hertzman, Jennie; Fritzell, Johan; Rostila, Mikael

    2017-05-25

    Immigration to the Nordic countries has increased in the last decades and foreign-born inhabitants now constitute a considerable part of the region's population. Several studies suggest poorer self-reported health among foreign-born compared to natives, while results on mortality and life expectancy are inconclusive. To date, few studies have summarized knowledge on mortality differentials by country of birth. This article aims to systematically review previous results on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by country of birth in the Nordic countries. The methodology was conducted and documented systematically and transparently using a narrative approach. We identified 43 relevant studies out of 6059 potentially relevant studies in August 2016, 35 of which used Swedish data, 8 Danish and 1 Norwegian. Our findings from fully-adjusted models on Swedish data support claims of excess mortality risks in specific categories of foreign-born. Most notably, immigrants from other Nordic countries, especially Finland, experience increased risk of mortality from all causes, and specifically by suicide, breast and gynaecological cancers, and circulatory diseases. Increased risks in people from Central and Eastern Europe can also be found. On the contrary, decreased risks for people with Southern European and Middle Eastern origins are found for all-cause, suicide, and breast and gynaecological cancer mortality. The few Danish studies are more difficult to compare, with conflicting results arising in the analysis. Finally, results from the one Norwegian study suggest significantly decreased mortality risks among foreign-born, to be explored in further research. With new studies being published on mortality differentials between native and foreign-born populations in the Nordic countries, specific risk patterns have begun to arise. Regardless, data from most Nordic countries remains limited, as does the information on specific causes of death. The literature should be expanded

  5. Age of red blood cells and mortality in the critically ill

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Pettila, Ville

    2011-04-15

    Abstract Introduction In critically ill patients, it is uncertain whether exposure to older red blood cells (RBCs) may contribute to mortality. We therefore aimed to evaluate the association between the age of RBCs and outcome in a large unselected cohort of critically ill patients in Australia and New Zealand. We hypothesized that exposure to even a single unit of older RBCs may be associated with an increased risk of death. Methods We conducted a prospective, multicenter observational study in 47 ICUs during a 5-week period between August 2008 and September 2008. We included 757 critically ill adult patients receiving at least one unit of RBCs. To test our hypothesis we compared hospital mortality according to quartiles of exposure to maximum age of RBCs without and with adjustment for possible confounding factors. Results Compared with other quartiles (mean maximum red cell age 22.7 days; mortality 121\\/568 (21.3%)), patients treated with exposure to the lowest quartile of oldest RBCs (mean maximum red cell age 7.7 days; hospital mortality 25\\/189 (13.2%)) had an unadjusted absolute risk reduction in hospital mortality of 8.1% (95% confidence interval = 2.2 to 14.0%). After adjustment for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score, other blood component transfusions, number of RBC transfusions, pretransfusion hemoglobin concentration, and cardiac surgery, the odds ratio for hospital mortality for patients exposed to the older three quartiles compared with the lowest quartile was 2.01 (95% confidence interval = 1.07 to 3.77). Conclusions In critically ill patients, in Australia and New Zealand, exposure to older RBCs is independently associated with an increased risk of death.

  6. A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2016-12-01

    To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  7. [Analysis of the impact of mortality due to suicides in Mexico, 2000-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávila Cervantes, Claudio Alberto; Ochoa Torres, María del Pilar; Casique Rodríguez, Irene

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the burden of disease due to suicide in Mexico using years of life lost (YLL) between 2000 and 2012 by sex, age group (for those under 85 years of age) and jurisdiction. Vital statistics on mortality and population estimates were used to calculate standardized mortality rates and years of life lost due to suicide. Between 2000 and 2012 a sustained increase in the suicide mortality rate was observed in Mexico. The age group with the highest rate was 85 years of age or older for men, and 15-19 years of age for women. The highest impact in life expectancy due to suicide occurred at 20 to 24 years of age in men and 15 to 19 years of age in women. The states with the highest mortality due to suicide were located in the Yucatan Peninsula (Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Campeche). Mortality due to suicide in Mexico has increased continually. As suicides are preventable, the implementation of health public policies through timely identification, integral prevention strategies and the detailed study of associated risk factors is imperative.

  8. Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Mortality of A-bomb survivors in Nagasaki and Hiroshima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mine, Mariko; Honda, Sumihisa; Okumura, Yutaka; Kondo, Hisayoshi; Yokota, Kenichi; Tomonaga, Masao

    2000-01-01

    A data base of A-bomb survivors in Nagasaki has been maintained at Division of Scientific Data Registry, Atomic Bomb Disease Institute at Nagasaki University School of Medicine. The data base include personal histories, records of health checks and cause of death. We have published the mortality of non-cancerous disease of A-bomb survivors using old dose estimation system, T65D, elsewhere. The mortality of non-cancerous disease was lower than controls for a dose range 50-99 cGy in male. We reanalyzed the mortality of non-cancerous disease using new dose estimation system, ABS93D. It's result was lower than controls for a dose range 31-40cGy in male. We compared the results of A-bomb survivors in our database with those or LSS's population, RERF. (1) Radiation dose for survivors in Nagasaki have been estimated by Atomic Bomb Survivor 1993 Dose (ABS93D). To study the mortality rates of A-bomb survivors for the period of 1971 through 1994, we selected 2,743 persons (dose estimate available) and age-matched 8,229 persons as control who were alive in 1971. (2) Another population is Life Span Study by Radiation Effect Research Foundation (RERF). RERF opened the data from 1950 to 1985. The data on deaths are stratified by city, sex, age radiation dose, the observed period and cause of death, yielding 3,640 strata. (1) The study resulted in that males exposed to 31-40cGy showed lower mortality from non-cancerous diseases than that of control. (2) Relative risk of mortality from all causes is lower than controls for a dose range 6-19cGy adjusted for sex, age, and period. Relative risk of mortality from non-cancerous disease is significantly lower than controls for a dose range 6-49cGy adjusted for sex, age, and period. But result of adjusted for city is no difference. (author)

  10. Comparison of mortality following hospitalisation for isolated head injury in England and Wales, and Victoria, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda J Gabbe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI remains a leading cause of death and disability. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE guidelines recommend transfer of severe TBI cases to neurosurgical centres, irrespective of the need for neurosurgery. This observational study investigated the risk-adjusted mortality of isolated TBI admissions in England/Wales, and Victoria, Australia, and the impact of neurosurgical centre management on outcomes. METHODS: Isolated TBI admissions (>15 years, July 2005-June 2006 were extracted from the hospital discharge datasets for both jurisdictions. Severe isolated TBI (AIS severity >3 admissions were provided by the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN and Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR for England/Wales, and Victoria, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare risk-adjusted mortality between jurisdictions. FINDINGS: Mortality was 12% (749/6256 in England/Wales and 9% (91/1048 in Victoria for isolated TBI admissions. Adjusted odds of death in England/Wales were higher compared to Victoria overall (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5, and for cases <65 years (OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.51, 3.69. For severe TBI, mortality was 23% (133/575 for TARN and 20% (68/346 for VSTR, with 72% of TARN and 86% of VSTR cases managed at a neurosurgical centre. The adjusted mortality odds for severe TBI cases in TARN were higher compared to the VSTR (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.19, but particularly for cases <65 years (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.90. Neurosurgical centre management modified the effect overall (OR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.74 and for cases <65 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.03. CONCLUSION: The risk-adjusted odds of mortality for all isolated TBI admissions, and severe TBI cases, were higher in England/Wales when compared to Victoria. The lower percentage of cases managed at neurosurgical centres in England and Wales was an explanatory factor, supporting the changes made to the NICE

  11. [Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

    2006-01-14

    To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

  12. Premature mortality in active convulsive epilepsy in rural Kenya: causes and associated factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngugi, Anthony K; Bottomley, Christian; Fegan, Gregory; Chengo, Eddie; Odhiambo, Rachael; Bauni, Evasius; Neville, Brian; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sander, Josemir W; Newton, Charles R

    2014-02-18

    We estimated premature mortality and identified causes of death and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in rural Kenya. In this prospective population-based study, people with ACE were identified in a cross-sectional survey and followed up regularly for 3 years, during which information on deaths and associated factors was collected. We used a validated verbal autopsy tool to establish putative causes of death. Age-specific rate ratios and standardized mortality ratios were estimated. Poisson regression was used to identify mortality risk factors. There were 61 deaths among 754 people with ACE, yielding a rate of 33.3/1,000 persons/year. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 6.5. Mortality was higher across all ACE age groups. Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 3.37), cognitive impairment (aRR 4.55), and age (50+ years) (rate ratio 4.56) were risk factors for premature mortality. Most deaths (56%) were directly related to epilepsy, with prolonged seizures/possible status epilepticus (38%) most frequently associated with death; some of these may have been due to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Possible SUDEP was the likely cause in another 7%. Mortality in people with ACE was more than 6-fold greater than expected. This may be reduced by improving treatment adherence and prompt management of prolonged seizures and supporting those with cognitive impairment.

  13. Hospitalized Smokers’ Expectancies for Electronic Cigarettes versus Tobacco Cigarettes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks, Peter S.; Cases, Mallory G.; Thorne, Christopher B.; Cheong, JeeWon; Harrington, Kathleen F.; Kohler, Connie L.; Bailey, William C.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction To compare hospitalized smokers’ expectancies for electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) against their expectancies for tobacco cigarettes and evaluate relationships between e-cigarette expectancies and intention to use e-cigarettes. Methods Analysis of baseline data from a one-year longitudinal observational study. The setting was a tertiary care academic center hospital in the Southeastern U.S. Participants were 958 hospitalized tobacco cigarette smokers. A questionnaire of e-cigarette expectancies based on the Brief Smoking Consequences Questionnaire-Adult (BSCQ-A) was developed and administered along with the original, tobacco-specific, BSCQ-A. Intention to use e-cigarettes was assessed with a single 10-point Likert scale item. Results Participants reported significantly weaker expectancies for e-cigarettes relative to tobacco cigarettes on all 10 BSCQ-A scales. Participants held sizably weaker expectancies for the health risks of e-cigarettes (p < .001, Cohen's d = −2.07) as well as the ability of e-cigarettes to relieve negative affect (p < .001, Cohen's d = −1.01), satisfy the desire for nicotine (p < .001, Cohen's d = −.83), and taste pleasant (p < .001, Cohen's d = −.73). Among the strongest predictors of intention to use e-cigarettes were greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant (p < .001, adjusted β = .34), relieve negative affect (p < .001, adjusted β = .32), and satisfy the desire for nicotine (p < .001, adjusted β = .31). Conclusions Hospitalizedtobacco smokers expect fewer negative and positive outcomes from e-cigarettes versus tobacco cigarettes. This suggests that e-cigarettes might be viable though imperfect substitutes for tobacco cigarettes. PMID:25452052

  14. Association of Modality with Mortality among Canadian Aboriginals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Rigatto, Claudio; Komenda, Paul; Yeates, Karen; Promislow, Steven; Mojica, Julie; Tangri, Navdeep

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Previous studies have shown that Aboriginals and Caucasians experience similar outcome on dialysis in Canada. Using the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry, this study examined whether dialysis modality (peritoneal or hemodialysis) impacted mortality in Aboriginal patients. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study identified 31,576 adult patients (hemodialysis: Aboriginal=1839, Caucasian=21,430; peritoneal dialysis: Aboriginal=554, Caucasian=6769) who initiated dialysis between January of 2000 and December of 2009. Aboriginal status was identified by self-report. Dialysis modality was determined 90 days after dialysis initiation. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards and competing risk models were constructed to determine the association between race and mortality by dialysis modality. Results During the study period, 939 (51.1%) Aboriginals and 12,798 (53.3%) Caucasians initiating hemodialysis died, whereas 166 (30.0%) and 2037 (30.1%), respectively, initiating peritoneal dialysis died. Compared with Caucasians, Aboriginals on hemodialysis had a comparable risk of mortality (adjusted hazards ratio=1.04, 95% confidence interval=0.96–1.11, P=0.37). However, on peritoneal dialysis, Aboriginals experienced a higher risk of mortality (adjusted hazards ratio=1.36, 95% confidence interval=1.13–1.62, P=0.001) and technique failure (adjusted hazards ratio=1.29, 95% confidence interval=1.03–1.60, P=0.03) than Caucasians. The risk of technique failure varied by patient age, with younger Aboriginals (Aboriginals on peritoneal dialysis experience higher mortality and technique failure relative to Caucasians. Reasons for this race disparity in peritoneal dialysis outcomes are unclear. PMID:22997343

  15. Complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis in adults: risk classification for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasbun, Rodrigo; Vikram, Holenarasipur R; Barakat, Lydia A; Buenconsejo, Joan; Quagliarello, Vincent J

    2003-04-16

    Complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis causes significant morbidity and mortality in adults. Lack of valid data regarding estimation of prognosis makes management of this condition difficult. To derive and externally validate a prognostic classification system for adults with complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis. Retrospective observational cohort study conducted from January 1990 to January 2000 at 7 Connecticut hospitals among 513 patients older than 16 years who experienced complicated left-sided native valve endocarditis and who were divided into derivation (n = 259) and validation (n = 254) cohorts. All-cause mortality at 6 months after baseline. In the derivation and validation cohorts, the 6-month mortality rates were 25% and 26%, respectively. Five baseline features were independently associated with 6-month mortality (comorbidity [P =.03], abnormal mental status [P =.02], moderate to severe congestive heart failure [P =.01], bacterial etiology other than viridans streptococci [Pclassification system. In the derivation cohort, patients were classified into 4 groups with increasing risk for 6-month mortality: 5%, 15%, 31%, and 59% (Pendocarditis can be accurately risk stratified using baseline features into 4 groups of prognostic severity. This prognostic classification system might be useful for facilitating management decisions.

  16. Blood transfusion in cardiac surgery does increase the risk of 5-year mortality: results from a contemporary series of 1714 propensity-matched patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Richard E; Johnson, Christopher K; Ferrari, Giovanni; Brizzio, Mariano E; Sayles, Kathleen; Rioux, Nancy; Zapolanski, Alex; Grau, Juan B

    2014-04-01

    Studies have found that cardiac surgery patients receiving blood transfusions are at risk for increased mortality during the first year after surgery, but risk appears to decrease after the first year. This study compared 5-year mortality in a propensity-matched cohort of cardiac surgery patients. Between July 1, 2004, and June 30, 2011, 3516 patients had cardiac surgery with 1920 (54.6%) requiring blood transfusion. Propensity matching based on 22 baseline characteristics yielded two balanced groups (blood transfusion group [BTG] and nontransfused control group [NCG]) of 857 patients (1714 in total). The type and number of blood products were compared in the BTG. Operative mortality was higher in BTG versus NCG (2.3% vs. 0.4%; p blood (79.6% vs. 88.0%; p transfusion was independently associated with increased risk for 5-year mortality. Patients receiving cryoprecipitate products had a twofold mortality risk increase (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.106; p = 0.002). Blood transfusion, specifically cryoprecipitates, was independently associated with increased 5-year mortality. Transfusion during cardiac surgery should be limited to patients who are in critical need of blood products. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

  17. A method to adjust radiation dose-response relationships for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R

    2012-01-01

    Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...

  18. Association of the polygenic risk score for schizophrenia with mortality and suicidal behavior - A Danish population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, Thomas M; Trabjerg, Betina B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Mattheisen, Manuel; Meier, Sandra M; Byrne, Enda M; Mortensen, Preben B; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Agerbo, Esben

    2017-06-01

    It is unknown whether an increased genetic liability to schizophrenia influences the risk of dying early. The aim of the study was to determine whether the genetic predisposition to schizophrenia is associated with the risk of dying early and experience a suicide attempt. Case control study, Denmark. The main measure was the mortality rate ratios (MRR) for deaths and odds ratios (OR) for multiple suicide attempts, associated with one standard deviations increase of the polygenic risk-score for schizophrenia (PRS). We replicated the high mortality MRR=9.01 (95% CI: 3.56-22.80), and high risk of multiple suicide attempts OR=33.16 (95% CI: 20.97-52.43) associated with schizophrenia compared to the general population. However, there was no effect of the PRS on mortality MRR=1.00 (95% CI 0.71-1.40) in the case-control setup or in cases only, MRR=1.05 (95% CI 0.73-1.51). Similar, no association between the PRS and multiple suicide attempts was found in the adjusted models, but in contrast, family history of mental disorders was associated with both outcomes. A genetic predisposition for schizophrenia, measured by PRS, has little influence on the excess mortality or the risk of suicide attempts. In contrast there is a strong significant effect of family history of mental disorders. Our findings could reflect that the common variants detected by recent PRS only explain a small proportion of risk of schizophrenia, and that future, more powerful PRS instruments may be able to predict excess mortality within this disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Flavonoid intake and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Kerry L; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Croft, Kevin D; Lewis, Joshua R; Prince, Richard L

    2015-05-01

    Flavonoids are bioactive compounds found in foods such as tea, chocolate, red wine, fruit, and vegetables. Higher intakes of specific flavonoids and flavonoid-rich foods have been linked to reduced mortality from specific vascular diseases and cancers. However, the importance of flavonoids in preventing all-cause mortality remains uncertain. The objective was to explore the association between flavonoid intake and risk of 5-y mortality from all causes by using 2 comprehensive food composition databases to assess flavonoid intake. The study population included 1063 randomly selected women aged >75 y. All-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortalities were assessed over 5 y of follow-up through the Western Australia Data Linkage System. Two estimates of flavonoid intake (total flavonoidUSDA and total flavonoidPE) were determined by using food composition data from the USDA and the Phenol-Explorer (PE) databases, respectively. During the 5-y follow-up period, 129 (12%) deaths were documented. Participants with high total flavonoid intake were at lower risk [multivariate-adjusted HR (95% CI)] of 5-y all-cause mortality than those with low total flavonoid consumption [total flavonoidUSDA: 0.37 (0.22, 0.58); total flavonoidPE: 0.36 (0.22, 0.60)]. Similar beneficial relations were observed for both cardiovascular disease mortality [total flavonoidUSDA: 0.34 (0.17, 0.69); flavonoidPE: 0.32 (0.16, 0.61)] and cancer mortality [total flavonoidUSDA: 0.25 (0.10, 0.62); flavonoidPE: 0.26 (0.11, 0.62)]. Using the most comprehensive flavonoid databases, we provide evidence that high consumption of flavonoids is associated with reduced risk of mortality in older women. The benefits of flavonoids may extend to the etiology of cancer and cardiovascular disease. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  20. Chewing betel quid and the risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Tomohide; Hara, Kazuo; Kadowaki, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    Betel nut (Areca nut) is the fruit of the Areca catechu tree. Approximately 700 million individuals regularly chew betel nut (or betel quid) worldwide and it is a known risk factor for oral cancer and esophageal cancer. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the influence of chewing betel quid on metabolic diseases, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Science Direct for pertinent articles (including the references) published between 1951 and 2013. The adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval were calculated using the random effect model. Sex was used as an independent category for comparison. Of 580 potentially relevant studies, 17 studies from Asia (5 cohort studies and 12 case-control studies) covering 388,134 subjects (range: 94 to 97,244) were selected. Seven studies (N = 121,585) showed significant dose-response relationships between betel quid consumption and the risk of events. According to pooled analysis, the adjusted RR of betel quid chewers vs. non-chewers was 1.47 (PBetel quid chewing is associated with an increased risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Thus, in addition to preventing oral cancer, stopping betel quid use could be a valuable public health measure for metabolic diseases that are showing a rapid increase in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.

  1. Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matute-Cruz Petra

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. Methods A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848 diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and pre-hospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Results Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72% of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93. Conclusion Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

  2. Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

    2010-07-27

    The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (psocial relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  3. MORTALITY MODELING WITH LEVY PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Serhat Yucel, FRM

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Mortality and longevity risk is usually one of the main risk components ineconomic capital models of insurance companies. Above all, future mortalityexpectations are an important input in the modeling and pricing of long termproducts. Deviations from the expectation can lead insurance company even todefault if sufficient reserves and capital is not held. Thus, Modeling of mortalitytime series accurately is a vital concern for the insurance industry. The aim of thisstudy is to perform distributional and spectral testing to the mortality data andpracticed discrete and continuous time modeling. We believe, the results and thetechniques used in this study will provide a basis for Value at Risk formula incase of mortality.

  4. No Excess Mortality in Patients Aged 50 Years and Older Who Received Treatment for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ of the Breast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Bastiaannet

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS has increased at a fast rate.The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and treatment in the Netherlands and estimate the excess mortality risk of DCIS. Methods. From the Netherlands Cancer Registry, adult female patients (diagnosed 1997–2005 with DCIS were selected. Treatment was described according to age. Relative mortality at 10 years of follow-up was calculated by dividing observed mortality over expected mortality. Expected mortality was calculated using the matched Dutch general population. Results. Overall, 8421 patients were included in this study. For patients aged 50–64, and 65–74 an increase in breast-conserving surgery was observed over time (50 years experienced no excess mortality regardless of treatment (relative mortality 1.0. Conclusion. The present population-based study of almost 8500 patients showed no excess mortality in surgically treated women over 50 years with DCIS.

  5. [Deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on life expectancy in China, 2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y Y; Liu, S W; Ji, N; Zeng, X Y; Liu, Y N; Zhang, M; Wang, L M; Li, Y C; Zhou, M G

    2018-01-10

    Objective: To analyze the deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on people's life expectancy in China in 2013. Methods: The mortality data from the Disease Surveillance Points System and alcohol use data from China Chronic Disease Surveillance (2013) were used. The deaths attributed to alcohol use and its impact on the life expectancy of Chinese residents were estimated based on the principle of comparative risk assessment by calculating population attributable fraction. Results: In 2013, alcohol use resulted in 381 200 deaths, including 97 100 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, 88 200 liver cancer deaths, 61 400 liver cirrhosis deaths and 48 700 esophageal cancer deaths, and prevented 76 500 deaths, including 68 500, 4 900 and 3 100 deaths which might be caused by ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke and diabetes respectively. If risk factor of alcohol use is removed, the people's life expectancy would rise by an average of 0.43 years, especially in western China by 0.52 years, which was 0.12 years higher than that in eastern and central China, and the life expectancy of the population in rural and urban areas would rise by 0.48 years and 0.31 years respectively. Conclusions: Although alcohol has a protective effect on reducing ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes deaths, alcohol use is still a risk factor influencing the mortality and life expectancy of residents in China. It is necessary to take targeted measures to reduce the health problems caused by harmful use of alcohol.

  6. Trends of gender gaps in life expectancy in Japan, 1947-2010: associations with gender mortality ratio and a social development index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Arai, Asuna; Obayashi, Yoshihide; Kanda, Koji; Boostrom, Eugene; Lee, Romeo B; Tamashiro, Hiko

    2013-07-01

    This study analyzed the trend of gender gaps in life expectancy (GGLE) in Japan between 1947 and 2010, and explored the correlations of GGLE with gender mortality ratio and social development indices. Using GGLE and social indices data collected from the official websites, we carried out trends analysis of GGLE by calculating segmented average growth rates for different periods. We explored the association between GGLE and all-cause mortality; and between GGLE and Human Development Index (HDI) while controlling for time trend, by computing the generalized additive models based on the software R (version 2.15). Japan's GGLE increased in a fluctuating fashion. Across 53 years, the average growth rates varied widely: 0.14% (1947-1956), 1.43% (1956-1974), 1.06% (1974-2004) and -0.60% (2004-2010) (overall average 0.87%). The value of GGLE peaked to 7.00 years in 2004, and then has slowly declined (6.75 years in 2010). Age-adjusted all-cause gender mortality ratio had a statistically positive association with GGLE (PJapan could be partly explained by increased disease-specific mortality ratios (male/female), especially those involving chronic bronchitis and emphysema, diseases of the liver, suicide and cancer. The recent decline of GGLE might imply that Japanese women have been catching up with the lifestyle of men, resulting in similar mortality patterns. This calls for gender-sensitive approaches to developing policies and programs that will help sustain healthy lifestyles to combat smoking and alcohol intake, and social support to prevent suicide. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  7. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  8. The relationship of walking intensity to total and cause-specific mortality. Results from the National Walkers' Health Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul T Williams

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Test whether: 1 walking intensity predicts mortality when adjusted for walking energy expenditure, and 2 slow walking pace (≥24-minute mile identifies subjects at substantially elevated risk for mortality. METHODS: Hazard ratios from Cox proportional survival analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality vs. usual walking pace (min/mile in 7,374 male and 31,607 female recreational walkers. Survival times were left censored for age at entry into the study. Other causes of death were treated as a competing risk for the analyses of cause-specific mortality. All analyses were adjusted for sex, education, baseline smoking, prior heart attack, aspirin use, diet, BMI, and walking energy expenditure. Deaths within one year of baseline were excluded. RESULTS: The National Death Index identified 1968 deaths during the average 9.4-year mortality surveillance. Each additional minute per mile in walking pace was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes (1.8% increase, P=10(-5, cardiovascular diseases (2.4% increase, P=0.001, 637 deaths, ischemic heart disease (2.8% increase, P=0.003, 336 deaths, heart failure (6.5% increase, P=0.001, 36 deaths, hypertensive heart disease (6.2% increase, P=0.01, 31 deaths, diabetes (6.3% increase, P=0.004, 32 deaths, and dementia (6.6% increase, P=0.0004, 44 deaths. Those reporting a pace slower than a 24-minute mile were at increased risk for mortality due to all-causes (44.3% increased risk, P=0.0001, cardiovascular diseases (43.9% increased risk, P=0.03, and dementia (5.0-fold increased risk, P=0.0002 even though they satisfied the current exercise recommendations by walking ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent (MET-hours per week. CONCLUSIONS: The risk for mortality: 1 decreases in association with walking intensity, and 2 increases substantially in association for walking pace ≥24 minute mile (equivalent to <400 m during a six-minute walk test even among subjects who exercise regularly.

  9. Association of heme oxygenase-1 GT-repeat polymorphism with blood pressure phenotypes and its relevance to future cardiovascular mortality risk: an observation based on arsenic-exposed individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Meei-Maan; Chiou, Hung-Yi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Hsu, Ling-I; Lien, Li-Ming; Wang, Chih-Hao; Hsieh, Yi-Chen; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Hsueh, Yu-Mei; Lee, Te-Chang; Cheng, Wen-Fang; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2011-12-01

    Heme oxygenase (HO)-1 is up-regulated as a cellular defense responding to stressful stimuli in experimental studies. A GT-repeat length polymorphism in the HO-1 gene promoter was inversely correlated to HO-1 induction. Here, we reported the association of GT-repeat polymorphism with blood pressure (BP) phenotypes, and their interaction on cardiovascular (CV) mortality risk in arsenic-exposed cohorts. Associations of GT-repeat polymorphism with BP phenotypes were investigated at baseline in a cross-sectional design. Effect of GT-repeat polymorphism on CV mortality was investigated in a longitudinal design stratified by hypertension. GT-repeat variants were grouped by S (accounting for CV covariates. Totally, 894 participants were recruited and analyzed. At baseline, carriers with HO-1 S alleles had lower diastolic BP (L/S genotypes, P = 0.014) and a lower possibility of being hypertensive (L/S genotypes, P = 0.048). After follow-up, HO-1 S allele was significantly associated with a reduced CV risk in hypertensive participants [relative mortality ratio (RMR) 0.27 (CI 0.11, 0.69), P = 0.007] but not in normotensive. Hypertensive participants without carrying the S allele had a 5.23-fold increased risk [RMR 5.23 (CI 1.99, 13.69), P = 0.0008] of CV mortality compared with normotensive carrying the S alleles. HO-1 short GT-repeat polymorphism may play a protective role in BP regulation and CV mortality risk in hypertensive individuals against environmental stressors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

    2007-12-01

    Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

  11. Community Level Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Madagascar

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    This paper explores the effect of risk and socioeconomic factors on maternal mortality at the ... to study maternal mortality, however, studying maternal mortality at the community ... causes of maternal mortality at the country level in ... Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, .... cyclones, and crime can be associated with.

  12. Mortality from Circulatory System Diseases among French Uranium Miners: A Nested Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drubay, Damien; Caër-Lorho, Sylvaine; Laroche, Pierre; Laurier, Dominique; Rage, Estelle

    2015-05-01

    A significant association has been observed between radon exposure and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) mortality among French uranium miners, but risk factors for circulatory system diseases (CSD) have not been previously considered. We conducted new analyses in the recently updated (through 2007) French cohort of uranium miners (n = 5,086), which included 442 deaths from CSD, 167 of them from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and 105 from CeVD. A nested case-control study was then set up to collect and investigate the influence of these risk factors on the relationships between mortality from CSD and occupational external gamma ray and internal ionizing radiation exposure (radon and long-lived radionuclides) in this updated cohort. The nested case-control study included miners first employed after 1955, still employed in 1976 and followed up through 2007. Individual information about CSD risk factors was collected from medical files for the 76 deaths from CSD (including 26 from IHD and 16 from CeVD) and 237 miners who had not died of CSD by the end of follow-up. The exposure-risk relationships were assessed with a Cox proportional hazard model weighted by the inverse sampling probability. A significant increase in all CSD and CeVD mortality risks associated with radon exposure was observed in the total cohort [hazard ratios: HRCSD/100 working level months (WLM) = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (1.01; 1.22) and HRCeVD/100 WLM = 1.25 (1.09; 1.43), respectively]. A nonsignificant exposure-risk relationship was observed for every type of cumulative ionizing radiation exposure and every end point [e.g., HRCSD/100WLM = 1.43 (0.71; 2.87)]. The adjustment for each CSD risk factor did not substantially change the exposure-risk relationships. When the model was adjusted for overweight, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia and smoking status, the HR/100WLM for CSD, for example, was equal to 1.21 (0.54; 2.75); and when it was adjusted for risk factors selected with the

  13. Polymorphisms related to the serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and risk of myocardial infarction, diabetes, cancer and mortality. The Tromso Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Jorde

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Low serum 25(OHD levels are associated with cardiovascular risk factors, and also predict future myocardial infarction (MI, type 2 diabetes (T2DM, cancer and all-cause mortality. Recently several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD level have been identified. If these relations are causal one would expect a similar association between these SNPs and health. METHODS: DNA was prepared from subjects who participated in the fourth survey of the Tromsø Study in 1994-1995 and who were registered with the endpoints MI, T2DM, cancer or death as well as a randomly selected control group. The endpoint registers were complete up to 2007-2010. Genotyping was performed for 17 SNPs related to the serum 25(OHD level. RESULTS: A total of 9528 subjects were selected for genetic analyses which were successfully performed for at least one SNP in 9471 subjects. Among these, 2025 were registered with MI, 1092 with T2DM, 2924 with cancer and 3828 had died. The mean differences in serum 25(OHD levels between SNP genotypes with the lowest and highest serum 25(OHD levels varied from 0.1 to 7.8 nmol/L. A genotype score based on weighted risk alleles regarding low serum 25(OHD levels was established. There was no consistent association between the genotype score or individuals SNPs and MI, T2DM, cancer, mortality or risk factors for disease. However, for rs6013897 genotypes (located at the 24-hydroxylase gene (CYP24A1 there was a significant association with breast cancer (P<0.05. CONCLUSION: Our results do not support nor exclude a causal relationship between serum 25(OHD levels and MI, T2DM, cancer or mortality, and our observation on breast cancer needs confirmation. Further genetic studies are warranted, particularly in populations with vitamin D deficiency. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01395303.

  14. Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Psota

    Full Text Available Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008.We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI and physical activity levels, and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS. The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses.Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%, acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9% and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8

  15. Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psota, Marek; Bandosz, Piotr; Gonçalvesová, Eva; Avdičová, Mária; Bucek Pšenková, Mária; Studenčan, Martin; Pekarčíková, Jarmila; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

    2018-01-01

    Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008. We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity levels), and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS). The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses. Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR) decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%), acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9%) and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8%). Changes in CHD

  16. Assessment of hospital performance with a case-mix standardized mortality model using an existing administrative database in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fushimi Kiyohide

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few studies have examined whether risk adjustment is evenly applicable to hospitals with various characteristics and case-mix. In this study, we applied a generic prediction model to nationwide discharge data from hospitals with various characteristics. Method We used standardized data of 1,878,767 discharged patients provided by 469 hospitals from July 1 to October 31, 2006. We generated and validated a case-mix in-hospital mortality prediction model using 50/50 split sample validation. We classified hospitals into two groups based on c-index value (hospitals with c-index ≥ 0.8; hospitals with c-index Results The model demonstrated excellent discrimination as indicated by the high average c-index and small standard deviation (c-index = 0.88 ± 0.04. Expected mortality rate of each hospital was highly correlated with observed mortality rate (r = 0.693, p Conclusion The model fits well to a group of hospitals with a wide variety of acute care events, though model fit is less satisfactory for specialized hospitals and those with convalescent wards. Further sophistication of the generic prediction model would be recommended to obtain optimal indices to region specific conditions.

  17. An Online Atlas for Exploring Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Cancer Mortality (1972-2011) and Incidence (1995-2008) in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Wen-Yuan; Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Jing-Yang; Nfor, Oswald Ndi; Hsu, Shu-Yi; Ko, Pei-Chieh; Lee, Wen-Chung; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2016-05-01

    Public health mapping and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are already being used to locate the geographical spread of diseases. This study describes the construction of an easy-to-use online atlas of cancer mortality (1972-2011) and incidence (1995-2008) in Taiwan.Two sets of color maps were made based on "age-adjusted mortality by rate" and "age-adjusted mortality by rank." AJAX (Asynchronous JavaScript and XML), JSON (JavaScript Object Notation), and SVG (Scaling Vector Graphic) were used to create the online atlas. Spatio-temporal patterns of cancer mortality and incidence in Taiwan over the period from 1972 to 2011 and from 1995 to 2008.The constructed online atlas contains information on cancer mortality and incidence (http://taiwancancermap.csmu-liawyp.tw/). The common GIS functions include zoom and pan and identity tools. Users can easily customize the maps to explore the spatio-temporal trends of cancer mortality and incidence using different devices (such as personal computers, mobile phone, or pad). This study suggests an easy- to-use, low-cost, and independent platform for exploring cancer incidence and mortality. It is expected to serve as a reference tool for cancer prevention and risk assessment.This online atlas is a cheap and fast tool that integrates various cancer maps. Therefore, it can serve as a powerful tool that allows users to examine and compare spatio-temporal patterns of various maps. Furthermore, it is an-easy-to use tool for updating data and assessing risk factors of cancer in Taiwan.

  18. Nurse staffing, medical staffing and mortality in Intensive Care: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Elizabeth; Barron, David N; Harrison, David; Rafferty, Anne Marie; Rowan, Kathy; Sanderson, Colin

    2014-05-01

    To investigate whether the size of the workforce (nurses, doctors and support staff) has an impact on the survival chances of critically ill patients both in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in the hospital. Investigations of intensive care outcomes suggest that some of the variation in patient survival rates might be related to staffing levels and workload, but the evidence is still equivocal. Information about patients, including the outcome of care (whether the patient lived or died) came from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme. An Audit Commission survey of ICUs conducted in 1998 gave information about staffing levels. The merged dataset had information on 65 ICUs and 38,168 patients. This is currently the best available dataset for testing the relationship between staffing and outcomes in UK ICUs. A cross-sectional, retrospective, risk adjusted observational study. Multivariable, multilevel logistic regression. ICU and in-hospital mortality. After controlling for patient characteristics and workload we found that higher numbers of nurses per bed (odds ratio: 0.90, 95% confidence interval: [0.83, 0.97]) and higher numbers of consultants (0.85, [0.76, 0.95]) were associated with higher survival rates. Further exploration revealed that the number of nurses had the greatest impact on patients at high risk of death (0.98, [0.96, 0.99]) whereas the effect of medical staffing was unchanged across the range of patient acuity (1.00, [0.97, 1.03]). No relationship between patient outcomes and the number of support staff (administrative, clerical, technical and scientific staff) was found. Distinguishing between direct care and supernumerary nurses and restricting the analysis to patients who had been in the unit for more than 8h made little difference to the results. Separate analysis of in-unit and in-hospital survival showed that the clinical workforce in intensive care had a greater impact on ICU mortality than on

  19. Providing instrumental social support is more beneficial to reduce mortality risk among the elderly with low educational level in Taiwan: a 12-year follow-up national longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C C; Yeh, C J; Lee, S H; Liao, W C; Liao, M Y; Lee, M C

    2015-04-01

    To evaluate whether the effects of providing or receiving social support are more beneficial to reduce mortality risk among the elderly with different educational levels. In this long-term prospective cohort study, data were retrieved from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging. This study was initiated from 1996 until 2007. The complete data from 1492 males and 1177 females aged ≥67 years were retrieved. Participants received financial, instrumental, and emotional support, and they actively provided instrumental and emotional support to others and involved in social engagement. Education attainment was divided into two levels: high and low. The low education level included illiterate and elementary school. The high education level included junior high school to senior high school and above college. Cox regression analysis was used to examine the association between providing or receiving social support on mortality with different educational levels. The average age of the participants in 1996 was 73.0 (IQR=8.0) years, and the median survival following years (1996-2007) of participants was 10.3 (IQR=6.7) years. Most participants were low educational level including illiterate (39.3%) and elementary school (41.2%). Participants with high educational level tend to be younger and more male significantly. On the contrary, participants with low educational level tend to have significant more poor income, more depression, more cognition impairment, more with IADL and ADL disability than high educational level. Most participants received instrumental support from others (95.5%) and also provided emotional support to others (97.7%). Providing instrumental support can reduce 17% of mortality risk among the elderly with a low level of education after adjusting several covariates [Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70-0.99; p = 0.036]. Providing instrumental social support to others confer benefits to the giver and prolong life expectancy among the

  20. Relationship of energy and protein adequacy with 60-day mortality in mechanically ventilated critically ill patients: A prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Zheng-Yii; Noor Airini, Ibrahim; Barakatun-Nisak, Mohd-Yusof

    2017-05-19

    The effect of provision of full feeding or permissive underfeeding on mortality in mechanically ventilated critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is still controversial. This study investigated the relationship of energy and protein intakes with 60-day mortality, and the extent to which ICU length of stay and nutritional risk status influenced this relationship. This is a prospective observational study conducted among critically ill patients aged ≥18 years, intubated and mechanically ventilated within 48 h of ICU admission and stayed in the ICU for at least 72 h. Information on baseline characteristics and nutritional risk status (the modified Nutrition Risk in Critically ill [NUTRIC] score) was collected on day 1. Nutritional intake was recorded daily until death, discharge, or until the twelfth evaluable days. Mortality status was assessed on day 60 based on the patient's hospital record. Patients were divided into 3 groups a) received energy and protein (both energy and protein (both ≥2/3) and c) either energy or protein received were ≥2/3 of prescribed (either ≥2/3). The relationship between the three groups with 60-day mortality was examined by using logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the influence of ICU length of stay (≥7 days) and nutritional risk status. Data were collected from 154 mechanically ventilated patients (age, 51.3 ± 15.7 years; body mass index, 26.5 ± 6.7 kg/m 2 ; 54% male). The mean modified NUTRIC score was 5.7 ± 1.9, with 56% of the patients at high nutritional risk. The patients received 64.5 ± 21.6% of the amount of energy and 56.4 ± 20.6% of the amount of protein prescribed. Provision of energy and protein at ≥2/3 compared with energy and protein provision at either ≥2/3 compared with Energy and protein adequacy of ≥2/3 of the prescribed amounts were associated with a trend towards increased 60-day mortality among

  1. The happy survivor? Effects of differential mortality on life satisfaction in older age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segerstrom, Suzanne C; Combs, Hannah L; Winning, Ashley; Boehm, Julia K; Kubzansky, Laura D

    2016-06-01

    Older adults report higher psychological well-being than younger adults. Those highest in well-being also have the lowest risk of mortality. If those with lower well-being die earlier, it could affect the appearance of developmental change in well-being. In adults aged 50 and older (N = 4,458), we estimated effects of differential mortality on life satisfaction by imputing life satisfaction, adjusting for attrition due to death, or estimating life satisfaction using pattern-mixture modeling. There was an increase in life satisfaction with age; however, differential mortality affected the elevation of the curve. Observed life satisfaction, particularly above age 70, is affected by differential mortality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Mortality and cancer incidence experience of employees in a nuclear fuels fabrication plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hadjimichael, O.C.; Ostfeld, A.M.; D'Atri, D.A.; Brubaker, R.E.

    1983-01-01

    The mortality and cancer incidence experience of 4,106 employees in a nuclear fuels fabrication plant was evaluated in this retrospective cohort study. Standardized mortality (SMR) and incidence ratios were calculated for groups of employees holding different jobs in the company associated with various types of industrial exposures and with low levels of radiation. Connecticut population mortality rates and Connecticut Tumor Registry incidence rates, specific for age-sex, calendar year and cause of death or cancer site, were used for the calculation of expected rates. Results showed the SMR for all male employees to be significantly lower than expected for all causes and what would be expected for all cancer deaths. More deaths were observed than expected from diseases of the central and peripheral nervous system and from obstructive pulmonary disease. The overall cancer incidence experience of the male employees was significantly lower than expected among the industrial employees. There was no risk associated with any particular job exposure group. Log linear models analysis showed no significant effect from industrial and radiation exposures or from their combined influence

  3. Available studies fail to provide strong evidence of increased risk of diarrhea mortality due to measles in the period 4-26 weeks after measles rash onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Bianca D; Black, Robert E

    2017-11-07

    Measles vaccination effectiveness studies showed dramatic decreases in all-cause mortality in excess of what would be expected from the prevention of measles disease alone. This invited speculation that measles infection may increase the risk of diarrhea morbidity and mortality subsequent to the acute phase of the disease. The aim of the present systematic review is to summarize the existing evidence in the publically available literature pertaining to the putative causal link between measles and diarrhea in the period 4-26 weeks following measles rash onset. We searched the PubMed, Embase, Open Grey and Grey Literature Report databases for relevant literature using broad search terms. Prospective, retrospective and case-control studies in low- and middle-income countries involving children under five wherein relevant evidence were presented were included. Data were extracted from the articles and summarized. Fifty abstracts retrieved through the database searches met the initial screening criteria. Twelve additional documents were identified by review of the references of the documents found in the initial searches. Six documents representing five unique studies that presented evidence relevant to the research question were found. Four of the included studies took place in Bangladesh. One of the included studies took place in Sudan. Some measles vaccine effectiveness studies show lower diarrhea morbidity and mortality among the vaccinated. However, children who received vaccine may have differed in important ways from children who did not, such as health service utilization. Additionally, cohort studies following unvaccinated children showed no difference in diarrhea morbidity and mortality between cases and controls more than 4 weeks after measles rash onset. One study showed some evidence that severe measles may predispose children to gastroenteritis, but was not able to show a corresponding increase in the risk of diarrhea mortality. The available evidence

  4. Hypnotics and mortality in an elderly general population: a 12-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaussent, Isabelle; Ancelin, Marie-Laure; Berr, Claudine; Pérès, Karine; Scali, Jacqueline; Besset, Alain; Ritchie, Karen; Dauvilliers, Yves

    2013-09-26

    Hypnotics are widely used by the elderly, and their impact on mortality remains controversial. The inconsistent findings could be due to methodological limitations, notably the lack of control for underlying sleep symptoms or illness associated with hypnotic use, for example, insomnia symptoms and excessive daytime sleepiness, depression and anxiety. Our objective was to examine the association between the use of hypnotics and mortality risk in a large cohort of community-dwelling elderly, taking into account a wide range of potential competing risks including sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, and chronic disorders as well as underlying psychiatric disorders and sleep complaints. Analyses were carried out on 6,696 participants aged 65 years or older randomly recruited from three French cities and free of dementia at baseline. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with delayed entry, and age of the participants as the time scale, were used to determine the association between hypnotic use and 12-year survival. At baseline, 21.7% of the participants regularly used at least one hypnotic. During follow-up, 1,307 persons died, 480 from cancer and 344 from cardiovascular disease. Analyses adjusted for study center, age and gender showed a significantly greater risk of all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality with hypnotics, particularly benzodiazepines, and this increased with the number of hypnotics used. None of these associations were significant in models adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics, chronic disorders including cardiovascular pathologies, sleep and psychiatric disorders. Results remained unchanged when duration of past hypnotic intake or persistent versus intermittent use during follow-up were taken into account. When controlling for a large range of potential confounders, the risk of mortality was not significantly associated with hypnotic use regardless of the type and duration. Underlying psychiatric disorders

  5. Lifetime risks, loss of life expectancy, and health care expenditures for 19 types of cancer in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu TY

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Tzu-Yi Wu,1 Chia-Hua Chung,2 Chia-Ni Lin,3 Jing-Shiang Hwang,2 Jung-Der Wang3,4 1Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; 2Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; 3Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; 4Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan Background: The mortality rates for different cancers are no longer an efficient tool for making national policy. The purpose of this study were to quantify the lifetime risks, life expectancies (LEs after diagnosis, expected years of life lost (EYLL, and lifetime health care expenditures for 19 major cancers in Taiwan. Methods: A total of 831,314 patients with 19 pathologically proven cancers were abstracted from the Taiwan Cancer Registry from 1998 to 2012. They were linked to the National Mortality Registry (1998–2014 and National Health Insurance reimbursement database (1998–2013 for survival and health care costs. We estimated the cumulative incidence rate for ages 0–79 years and the lifetime survival function for patients with different cancer sites. The EYLL was calculated by subtracting the LE of each cancer cohort from that of the age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national life tables. The estimated lifetime cost was calculated by adding up the product of survival probability and mean cost at the corresponding duration-to-date after adjustment for the inflation to the year of 2013. Results: There were 5 cancers with a lifetime risk exceeding 4%: colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate in males, and breast and colorectal in females. Cancers with EYLL of >10 years were: esophageal, intrahepatic bile ducts, liver, pancreas, oral, nasopharyngeal, leukemia, lung, and gallbladder, extrahepatic bile ducts and biliary tract in males, and intrahepatic bile ducts

  6. Nurse staffing and education and hospital mortality in nine European countries: a retrospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Linda H; Sloane, Douglas M; Bruyneel, Luk; Van den Heede, Koen; Griffiths, Peter; Busse, Reinhard; Diomidous, Marianna; Kinnunen, Juha; Kózka, Maria; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; McHugh, Matthew D; Moreno-Casbas, M T; Rafferty, Anne Marie; Schwendimann, Rene; Scott, P Anne; Tishelman, Carol; van Achterberg, Theo; Sermeus, Walter

    2014-05-24

    Austerity measures and health-system redesign to minimise hospital expenditures risk adversely affecting patient outcomes. The RN4CAST study was designed to inform decision making about nursing, one of the largest components of hospital operating expenses. We aimed to assess whether differences in patient to nurse ratios and nurses' educational qualifications in nine of the 12 RN4CAST countries with similar patient discharge data were associated with variation in hospital mortality after common surgical procedures. For this observational study, we obtained discharge data for 422,730 patients aged 50 years or older who underwent common surgeries in 300 hospitals in nine European countries. Administrative data were coded with a standard protocol (variants of the ninth or tenth versions of the International Classification of Diseases) to estimate 30 day in-hospital mortality by use of risk adjustment measures including age, sex, admission type, 43 dummy variables suggesting surgery type, and 17 dummy variables suggesting comorbidities present at admission. Surveys of 26,516 nurses practising in study hospitals were used to measure nurse staffing and nurse education. We used generalised estimating equations to assess the effects of nursing factors on the likelihood of surgical patients dying within 30 days of admission, before and after adjusting for other hospital and patient characteristics. An increase in a nurses' workload by one patient increased the likelihood of an inpatient dying within 30 days of admission by 7% (odds ratio 1·068, 95% CI 1·031-1·106), and every 10% increase in bachelor's degree nurses was associated with a decrease in this likelihood by 7% (0·929, 0·886-0·973). These associations imply that patients in hospitals in which 60% of nurses had bachelor's degrees and nurses cared for an average of six patients would have almost 30% lower mortality than patients in hospitals in which only 30% of nurses had bachelor's degrees and nurses cared

  7. Association between HOMA-IR, fasting insulin and fasting glucose with coronary heart disease mortality in nondiabetic men: a 20-year observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurl, Sudhir; Zaccardi, Francesco; Onaemo, Vivian N; Jae, Sae Young; Kauhanen, Jussi; Ronkainen, Kimmo; Laukkanen, Jari A

    2015-02-01

    Whether glucose and insulin are differently associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is unclear. We aimed to estimate the association between insulin resistance (estimated by the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance, HOMA-IR), fasting serum insulin (FI) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with incident CHD mortality in a prospective study including middle-aged nondiabetic Finnish men. During an average follow-up of 20 years, 273 (11 %) CHD deaths occurred. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, serum LDL-cholesterol, cigarette smoking, history of CHD, alcohol consumption, blood leukocytes and plasma fibrinogen, the hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD mortality comparing top versus bottom quartiles were as follows: 1.69 (95 % CI: 1.15-2.48; p = 0.008) for HOMA-IR; 1.59 (1.09-2.32; p = 0.016) for FI; and 1.26 (0.90-1.76; p = 0.173) for FPG. These findings suggest that IR and FI, but not FPG, are independent risk factors for CHD mortality. Further studies could help clarify these results in terms of screening and risk stratification, causality of the associations, and therapeutical implications.

  8. Postoperative mortality after inpatient surgery: Incidence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karamarie Fecho

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Karamarie Fecho1, Anne T Lunney1, Philip G Boysen1, Peter Rock2, Edward A Norfleet11Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 2Department of Anesthesiology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USAPurpose: This study determined the incidence of and identified risk factors for 48 hour (h and 30 day (d postoperative mortality after inpatient operations.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Anesthesiology’s Quality Indicator database as the main data source. The database was queried for data related to the surgical procedure, anesthetic care, perioperative adverse events, and birth/death/operation dates. The 48 h and 30 d cumulative incidence of postoperative mortality was calculated and data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test and generalized estimating equations.Results: The 48 h and 30 d incidence of postoperative mortality was 0.57% and 2.1%, respectively. Higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status scores, extremes of age, emergencies, perioperative adverse events and postoperative Intensive Care Unit admission were identified as risk factors. The use of monitored anesthesia care or general anesthesia versus regional or combined anesthesia was a risk factor for 30 d postoperative mortality only. Time under anesthesia care, perioperative hypothermia, trauma, deliberate hypotension and invasive monitoring via arterial, pulmonary artery or cardiovascular catheters were not identified as risk factors.Conclusions: Our findings can be used to track postoperative mortality rates and to test preventative interventions at our institution and elsewhere.Keywords: postoperative mortality, risk factors, operations, anesthesia, inpatient surgery

  9. Global Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates According to the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Ayubi, Erfan; Gholamaliee, Behzad; Pishkuhi, Mahin Ahmadi; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Sani, Mohadeseh; Hanis, Shiva Mansouri

    2016-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is one of the leading causes of death, especially in developed countries. The human development index (HDI) and its dimensions seem correlated with incidence and mortality rates of PC. This study aimed to assess the association of the specific components of HDI (life expectancy at birth, education, gross national income per 1000 capita, health, and living standards) with burden indicators of PC worldwide. Information of the incidence and mortality rates of PC was obtained from the GLOBOCAN cancer project in year 2012 and data about the HDI 2013 were obtained from the World Bank database. The correlation between incidence, mortality rates, and the HDI parameters were assessed using STATA software. A significant inequality of PC incidence rates was observed according to concentration indexes=0.25 with 95% CI (0.22, 0.34) and a negative mortality concentration index of -0.04 with 95% CI (-0.09, 0.01) was observed. A positive significant correlation was detected between the incidence rates of PC and the HDI and its dimensions including life expectancy at birth, education, income, urbanization level and obesity. However, there was a negative significant correlation between the standardized mortality rates and the life expectancy, income and HDI.

  10. Comparison of expected treatment outcomes, obtained using risk models and international guidelines, with observed treatment outcomes in a Dutch cohort of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with intravesical chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Rianne J M; Palou, Joan; Witjes, Wim P J; Janzing-Pastors, Maria H D; Caris, Christien T M; Witjes, J Alfred

    2014-08-01

    To compare the risks according to the American Urological Association (AUA), EAU, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncologico (CUETO) classifications with real outcomes in a cohort of patients in the Netherlands, and to confirm that patients who were undertreated according to these risk models have worse outcomes than adequately treated patients. Patients treated with complete transurethral resection of bladder tumour and intravesical chemotherapy were included. Not all patients would have received intravesical chemotherapy had they been treated to current standards, and thus comparison of the observed outcomes in our Dutch cohort vs expected outcomes based on the EORTC risk tables and CUETO scoring model was possible. The cohort was reclassified according to the definitions of five index patients (IPs), as defined by the AUA guidelines, and three risk groups, defined according to the EAU guidelines, to compare the outcomes of undertreated patients with those of adequately treated patients. A total of 1001 patients were available for comparison with the AUA definitions and 728 patients were available for comparison with the EORTC and CUETO models. There was a large overlap between the observed outcomes and expected recurrence and progression probabilities when comparison was made using the EORTC risk tables. The observed recurrence outcomes were in general higher than the expected probabilities according to the CUETO risk classification, especially in the long term. No differences in progression were found when comparing these two models to the Dutch cohort. Patients who were undertreated according to the guidelines showed, in general, a higher risk of developing recurrence and progression. Limitations are i.a. its retrospective nature and the differences in grading system. Comparisons between the observed outcomes in our Dutch cohort and the expected outcomes based on EAU and CUETO risk

  11. Mortality predictors of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Debre Tabor General Hospital and Woreta Health Center, South Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mekonnen Assefa Ahunie

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the mortality predictors of HIV-infected individuals who were receiving antiretroviral treatment. Methods: Data were extracted from medical records of 698 antiretroviral therapy (ART users enrolled at Debre Tabor General Hospital and Woreta Health Center from January 2005 to June 2014 and sociodemographic, clinical and ART-related data were collected. Mortality was compared by using time-to-event Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test and Cox regression analysis were used to identify the predictors of mortality. Results: The overall mortality rate was 1.5 per 100 persons per year. Ambulatory and bedridden patients had four- and seven-fold higher risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio (HR = 4.2, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.7–10.7 and adjusted HR = 6.5, 95% CI: 2.0–20.7, respectively] as compared to those patients who had worked functional status. Patients who had poor antiretroviral drug adherence had five times higher risk of death (adjusted HR = 5.1, 95% CI: 1.6–16.3 than patients who had good antiretroviral adherence. Conclusions: Mortality rate was highly observed in the early phase of antiretroviral treatment. Poor ART adherence, being ambulatory and bedridden functional status was independent predictors of mortality.

  12. Relation between cancer incidence or mortality and external natural background radiation in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujeno, Y.

    1983-01-01

    Analysis was performed on the relationships between the organ dose-equivalent rate due to natural background radiation (mSv/a) and three parameters of cancer risk: the age-adjusted cancer incidence (patients x 10 5 persons x a -1 ) in 13 large areas, the standardized mortality ratio of cancers in 46 large areas, and the cancer mortality in the population aged more than 40 years old (cancer deaths x 10 5 persons x a -1 ) in 649 small areas. The age-adjusted liver cancer incidence in males fitted the exponential model significantly (p<0.01) and the relationship of stomach cancer mortality of aged males in small areas fitted the linear model significantly (p<0.05). No relationship was observed with regard to female cancer in either case. The relationships between the three parameters and various other cancers of both sexes were not statistically significant. (author)

  13. Type of employment relationship and mortality: prospective study among Finnish employees in 1984-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nätti, Jouko; Kinnunen, Ulla; Mäkikangas, Anne; Mauno, Saija

    2009-04-01

    The study investigated the relationship between the type of employment (permanent/temporary) contract and mortality. Factors through which temporary employment was expected to be associated with increased mortality were the degree of satisfaction with the uncertainty related to temporary work situation (Study 1) and the voluntary/involuntary basis for temporary work (Study 2). In Study 1 the data consisted of representative survey on Finnish employees in 1984 (n = 4502), which was merged with register-based follow-up data in Statistics Finland covering years 1985-2000. In Study 2 the data consisted of representative survey on Finnish employees in 1990 (n = 3502) with register-based follow-up data covering years 1991-2000. The relative risk of death was examined by conducting Cox proportional hazards analyses for the permanent and the two temporary employment groups, respectively. In Study 1 temporary employees feeling the insecure situation unsatisfactory had a 1.95-fold higher risk of mortality than permanent employees (95% CI 1.13-3.35) after adjusted for background, health- and work-related factors. In Study 2 employees in the position of having a temporary job on the involuntarily basis had a 2.59-fold higher risk of mortality than permanent employees (95% CI 1.16-5.80). The present study confirmed that temporary employees are not a homogeneous group, which holds true even for mortality. Those temporary employees, who either felt the insecure situation unsatisfactory or who worked in temporary work involuntarily, had higher risk of mortality than permanent employees.

  14. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    2017-01-01

    In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of exp...

  15. Mortality among sulfide ore miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlman, K.; Koskela, R.S.; Kuikka, P.; Koponen, M.; Annanmaeki, M.

    1991-01-01

    Lung cancer mortality was studied during 1965-1985 in Outokumpu township in North Karelia, where an old copper mine was located. Age-specific lung cancer death rates (1968-1985) were higher among the male population of Outokumpu than among the North Karelian male population of the same age excluding the Outokumpu district (p less than .01). Of all 106 persons who died from lung cancer during 1965-1985 in Outokumpu township, 47 were miners of the old mine, 39 of whom had worked there for at least three years and been heavily exposed to radon daughters and silica dust. The study cohort consisted of 597 miners first employed between 1954 and 1973 by a new copper mine and a zinc mine, and employed there for at least 3 years. The period of follow-up was 1954-1986. The number of person-years was 14,782. The total number of deaths was 102; the expected number was 72.8 based on the general male population and 97.8 based on the mortality of the male population of North Karelia. The excess mortality among miners was due mainly to ischemic heart disease (IHD); 44 were observed, the expected number was 22.1, based on the general male population, and the North Karelian expected number was 31.2 (p less than .05). Of the 44 miners who died from IHD, 20 were drillers or chargers exposed to nitroglycerin in dynamite charges, but also to several simultaneous stress factors including PAHs, noise, vibration, heavy work, accident risk, and working alone. Altogether 16 tumors were observed in the cohort. Ten of these were lung cancers, the expected number being 4.3. Miners who had died from lung cancer were 35-64 years old, and had entered mining work between 1954 and 1960. Five of the ten lung cancer cases came from the zinc mine (1.7 expected). Three of them were conductors of diesel-powered ore trains

  16. Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shane A. Kavanagh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01–1.09, business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01–1.08, earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01–1.08 and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03–1.10 measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z-score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

  17. The effect of parity on cause-specific mortality among married men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Dena H; Eisenbach, Zvi; Manor, Orly

    2011-04-01

    The objective of this study was to examine mortality differentials among men and women by parity for deaths from cardio-vascular disease (CVD), cancer and other causes. The census-based Israel Longitudinal Mortality Study II (1995-2004) was used to identify 71,733 married men and 62,822 married women (45-89 years). During the 9-year follow-up period, 19,347 deaths were reported. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, origin, and social class were used. A non-linear association between parity and CVD mortality was detected for men and women. Excess CVD mortality risks were observed among middle-aged women with no children (hazard ratio [HR] 2.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 3.96) and among middle-aged women and men with 8+ children (HR(women) 1.64, CI 1.02, 2.65; HR(men) 1.40, CI 1.01, 1.93) compared to those with two children. No clear pattern of association between cancer mortality and parity was apparent for men. Elderly women with 8+ children showed reduced mortality risks from reproductive cancers (HR 0.22, CI 0.05, 0.91). Similar parity-related mortality patterns were observed for men and women for deaths from CVD and other causes indicating biosocial pathways. The association between parity and cancer mortality differed by gender, age and type of cancer.

  18. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  19. Control beliefs and risk for 4-year mortality in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan-Porter, Wei; Hastings, Susan Nicole; Neelon, Brian; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

    2017-01-11

    Control beliefs are important psychological factors that likely contribute to heterogeneity in health outcomes for older adults. We evaluated whether control beliefs are associated with risk for 4-year mortality, after accounting for established "classic" biomedical risk factors. We also determined if an enhanced risk model with control beliefs improved identification of individuals with low vs. high mortality risk. We used nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2012) for adults 50 years or older in 2006 (n = 7313) or 2008 (n = 6301). We assessed baseline perceived global control (measured as 2 dimensions-"constraints" and "mastery"), and health-specific control. We also obtained baseline data for 12 established biomedical risk factors of 4-year mortality: age, sex, 4 medical conditions (diabetes mellitus, cancer, lung disease and heart failure), body mass index less than 25 kg/m 2 , smoking, and 4 functional difficulties (with bathing, managing finances, walking several blocks and pushing or pulling heavy objects). Deaths within 4 years of follow-up were determined through interviews with respondents' family and the National Death Index. After accounting for classic biomedical risk factors, perceived constraints were significantly associated with higher mortality risk (third quartile scores odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81; fourth quartile scores OR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.09-1.92), while health-specific control was significantly associated with lower risk (OR 0.69-0.78 for scores above first quartile). Higher perceived mastery scores were not consistently associated with decreased risk. The enhanced model with control beliefs found an additional 3.5% of participants (n = 222) with low predicted risk of 4-year mortality (i.e., 4% or less); observed mortality for these individuals was 1.8% during follow-up. Compared with participants predicted to have low mortality risk only by the classic biomedical model

  20. Radiofrequency ablation of accessory pathways in patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome: long-term risk of mortality and coronary events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongcharoen, Wanwarang; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Yun-Yu; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chen, Pei-Chun; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2017-06-10

    The long-term outcomes of radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) remain unclear. We investigated the impact of RFCA on the long-term risk of coronary events and mortality in WPW patients. We conducted a prospective cohort study utilizing the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Between 2000 and 2003, WPW patients with no prior coronary artery disease (CAD) history, aged over 18 years, who underwent RFCA were identified. WPW patients without RFCA were matched with propensity-score 1:4 matching for confounding coronary risk factors. The study outcomes were total mortality and coronary events. A total of 1524 matched non-ablated WPW patients (Group 1) and 381 ablated WPW patients (Group 2) were included. After a mean follow-up of 9.6 ± 2.9 and 10.3 ± 1.9 years, respectively, ablation group demonstrated a lower incidence of mortality compared with non-ablation group (17 vs. 26/1000 person-years, P < 0.001; adjusted HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.44-0.7). However, ablation group had a higher incidence of coronary events compared with non-ablation group (47 vs. 82/1000 person-years, P < 0.001; adjusted HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.4-2.04). The ablation-treated WPW patients had lower risk of total mortality but higher risk of coronary events than non-ablated WPW patients during the long-term follow-up. Coronary artery injury produced by RFCA may account for the increased risk of coronary events. Therefore, the ablation strategies to avoid coronary artery injury should be implemented. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye Ah; Park, Hyesook

    2012-09-01

    Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

  2. Mortality trend by dengue in Mexico 1980 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaxiola-Robles, Ramón; Celis, Alfredo; Serrano-Pinto, Vania; Orozco-Valerio, María de Jesús; Zenteno-Savín, Tania

    2012-01-01

    To describe the mortality of dengue in Mexico during 1980 to 2009. Dengue mortality data for Mexico were obtained from Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografía e Informática. We used standardized and non-standardized dengue mortality rates per 1,000,000 people and determined the mortality trend. The groups were based on International Classification of Diseases coding criteria (ICD-9 E061 and ICD-10 A91X). The results were stratified by age groups and the frequencies of dengue deaths were compared using relative risk (RR) with its 95% confidence interval. During 1980 to 2009 in Mexico, 549 deaths due to dengue were reported. We found an important variation in the mortality rates during the years studied. We were able to identify three periods: 1980 to 1992, 1994 to 2000, and 2001 to 2009. The mortality rates found are from 0.88/1,000,000 through 0.00/1,000,000. The average mortality rates by decade: 1980 to 1989: 0.53/1,000,000; 1990 to 1999: 0.06/1,000,000; 2000 to 2009: 0.12/1,000,000. In the analysis of mortality by community size during 2000 to 2009, we observed in the small communities with < 2,499 people, the risk is 1.25 times higher than in those with more than 20,000 people. We found, in general, a sustained decline in the number of deaths by dengue over the last 30 years in Mexico. However, a slow increase was observed since 1994, which may be related to the circulation of DENV2 and DENV3, among other factors. We need to strengthen prevention programs in smaller communities (< 2,499) where we found a higher risk of mortality due to dengue.

  3. Risk factors, mortality, and timing of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with left ventricular assist devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frontera, Jennifer A; Starling, Randall; Cho, Sung-Min; Nowacki, Amy S; Uchino, Ken; Hussain, M Shazam; Mountis, Maria; Moazami, Nader

    2017-06-01

    Stroke is a major cause of mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. Prospectively collected data of patients with HeartMate II (n = 332) and HeartWare (n = 70) LVADs from October 21, 2004, to May 19, 2015, were reviewed. Predictors of early (during index hospitalization) and late (post-discharge) ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and association of stroke subtypes with mortality were assessed. Of 402 patients, 83 strokes occurred in 69 patients (17%; 0.14 events per patient-year [EPPY]): early ischemic stroke in 18/402 (4%; 0.03 EPPY), early hemorrhagic stroke in 11/402 (3%; 0.02 EPPY), late ischemic stroke in 25/402 (6%; 0.04 EPPY) and late hemorrhagic stroke in 29/402 (7%; 0.05 EPPY). Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke was bimodal with highest risks immediately post-implant and increasing again 9-12 months later. Risk of death declined over time in patients without stroke. Modifiable stroke risk factors varied according to timing and stroke type, including tobacco use, bacteremia, pump thrombosis, pump infection, and hypertension (all p hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-17.8, p = 0.04), late ischemic stroke (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.0, p = 0.03), and late hemorrhagic stroke (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.2, p = 0.005) predicted death, whereas early ischemic stroke did not. Stroke is a leading cause and predictor of death in patients with LVADs. Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke is bimodal, with highest risk at time of implant and increasing risk again after 9-12 months. Management of modifiable risk factors may reduce stroke and mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

  5. Benzodiazepines and risk of all cause mortality in adults: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patorno, Elisabetta; Glynn, Robert J; Levin, Raisa; Lee, Moa P; Huybrechts, Krista F

    2017-07-06

    Objectives  To evaluate the risk of all cause mortality associated with initiating compared with not initiating benzodiazepines in adults, and to address potential treatment barriers and confounding related to the use of a non-active comparator group. Design  Retrospective cohort study. Setting  Large de-identified US commercial healthcare database (Optum Clinformatics Datamart). Participants  1:1 high dimensional propensity score matched cohort of benzodiazepine initiators, and randomly selected benzodiazepine non-initiators with a medical visit within 14 days of the start of benzodiazepine treatment (n=1 252 988), between July 2004 and December 2013. To address treatment barriers and confounding, patients were required to have filled one or more prescriptions for any medication in the 90 days and 91-180 days before the index date (ie, the date of starting benzodiazepine treatment for initiators and the date of the selected medical visit for benzodiazepine non-initiators) and the high dimensional propensity score was estimated on the basis of more than 300 covariates. Main outcome measure  All cause mortality, determined by linkage with the Social Security Administration Death Master File. Results  Over a six month follow-up period, 5061 and 4691 deaths occurred among high dimensional propensity score matched benzodiazepine initiators versus non-initiators (9.3 v 9.4 events per 1000 person years; hazard ratio 1.00, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.04). A 4% (95% confidence interval 1% to 8%) to 9% (2% to 7%) increase in mortality risk was observed associated with the start of benzodiazepine treatment for follow-ups of 12 and 48 months and in subgroups of younger patients and patients initiating short acting agents. In secondary analyses comparing 1:1 high dimensional propensity score matched patients initiating benzodiazepines with an active comparator, ie, patients starting treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants

  6. Physical work demands, hypertension status, and risk of ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality in the Copenhagen Male Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Burr, Hermann

    2010-01-01

    Increased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality from high physical work demands has been observed among men with low physical fitness and leisure time physical activity. We tested whether hypertensive men are at a particularly high risk of IHD mortality when exposed to high physical work...

  7. Mortality and life expectancy in relation to long‐term cigarette, cigar and pipe smoking: The Zutphen Study

    OpenAIRE

    Streppel, Martinette T; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Ocké, Marga C; Kok, Frans J; Kromhout, Daan

    2007-01-01

    Study objective: To study the effect of long-term smoking on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and to estimate the effects of cigarette and cigar or pipe smoking on life expectancy. Design: A long-term prospective cohort study. Setting: Zutphen, The Netherlands. Participants: 1373 men from the Zutphen Study, born between 1900 and 1920 and studied between 1960 and 2000. Measurements: Hazard ratios for the type of smoking, amount and duration of cigarette smoking, obtained from a time-dep...

  8. Socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease risk and mortality: A population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fei; Johansson, Anna L V; Pedersen, Nancy L; Fang, Fang; Gatz, Margaret; Wirdefeldt, Karin

    2016-07-01

    Little is known about the role of socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease (PD) risk, and no study has investigated whether the impact of socioeconomic status on all-cause mortality differs between individuals with and without PD.In this population-based prospective study, over 4.6 million Swedish inhabitants who participated in the Swedish census in 1980 were followed from 1981 to 2010. The incidence rate of PD and incidence rate ratio were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and PD risk. Age-standardized mortality rate and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and all-cause mortality for individuals with and without PD.During follow-up, 66,332 incident PD cases at a mean age of 76.0 years were recorded. Compared to individuals with the highest socioeconomic status (high nonmanual workers), all other socioeconomic groups (manual or nonmanual and self-employed workers) had a lower PD risk. All-cause mortality rates were higher in individuals with lower socioeconomic status compared with high nonmanual workers, but relative risks for all-cause mortality were lower in PD patients than in non-PD individuals (e.g., for low manual workers, HR: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.15 for PD patients; HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.35-1.36 for non-PD individuals).Individuals with lower socioeconomic status had a lower PD incidence compared to the highest socioeconomic group. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher all-cause mortality among individuals with and without PD, but such impact was weaker among PD patients.

  9. Obesity and risk of breast cancer mortality in Hispanic and Non-Hispanic white women: the New Mexico Women's Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Avonne E; Baumgartner, Richard N; Pinkston, Christina; Baumgartner, Kathy B

    2013-04-01

    Obesity is reported to be associated with poorer survival in women with breast cancer, regardless of menopausal status. Our purpose was to determine if the associations of obesity with breast cancer-specific, all-cause, and non-breast cancer mortality differ between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white (NHW) women with breast cancer. Data on lifestyle and medical history were collected for incident primary breast cancer cases (298 NHW, 279 Hispanic) in the New Mexico Women's Health Study. Mortality was ascertained through the National Death Index and New Mexico Tumor Registry over 13 years of follow-up. Adjusted Cox regression models indicated a trend towards increased risk for breast cancer-specific mortality in obese NHW women (hazard ratio [HR] 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98-4.35) but not in Hispanic women (HR 1.32; 95% CI 0.64-2.74). Obese NHW women had a statistically significant increased risk for all-cause mortality (HR 2.12; 95% CI 1.15-3.90) while Hispanic women did not (HR 1.23; 95% CI 0.71-2.12). Results were similar for non-breast cancer mortality: NHW (HR 2.65; 95% CI 0.90-7.81); Hispanic (HR 2.18; 95% CI 0.77-6.10). Our results suggest that obesity is associated with increased risk for breast cancer-specific mortality in NHW women; however, this association is attenuated in Hispanic women.

  10. Mortality among discharged psychiatric patients in Florence, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloni, Debora; Miccinesi, Guido; Bencini, Andrea; Conte, Michele; Crocetti, Emanuele; Zappa, Marco; Ferrara, Maurizio

    2006-10-01

    Psychiatric disorders involve an increased risk of mortality. In Italy psychiatric services are community based, and hospitalization is mostly reserved for patients with acute illness. This study examined mortality risk in a cohort of psychiatric inpatients for 16 years after hospital discharge to assess the association of excess mortality from natural or unnatural causes with clinical and sociodemographic variables and time from first admission. At the end of 2002 mortality and cause of death were determined for all patients (N=845) who were admitted during 1987 to the eight psychiatric units active in Florence. The mortality risk of psychiatric patients was compared with that of the general population of the region of Tuscany by calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson multivariate analyses of the observed-to-expected ratio for natural and unnatural deaths were conducted. The SMR for the sample of psychiatric patients was threefold higher than that for the general population (SMR=3.0; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]=2.7-3.4). Individuals younger than 45 years were at higher risk (SMR=11.0; 95 percent CI 8.0-14.9). The SMR for deaths from natural causes was 2.6 (95 percent CI=2.3-2.9), and for deaths from unnatural causes it was 13.0 (95 percent CI=10.1-13.6). For deaths from unnatural causes, the mortality excess was primarily limited to the first years after the first admission. For deaths from natural causes, excess mortality was more stable during the follow-up period. Prevention of deaths from unnatural causes among psychiatric patients may require promotion of earlier follow-up after discharge. Improving prevention and treatment of somatic diseases of psychiatric patients is important to reduce excess mortality from natural causes.

  11. Birth order and mortality: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Kieron; Kolk, Martin

    2015-04-01

    This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality at ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother's age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater among women than among men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system and to external causes. Further analyses in which we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree.

  12. Income inequality, individual income, and mortality in Danish adults: analysis of pooled data from two cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, Merete; Prescott, Eva; Grønbaek, Morten

    2002-01-01

    ) and individual mortality was examined with Cox proportional hazard analyses. SETTING: Two population studies conducted in Copenhagen, Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 13 710 women and 12 018 men followed for a mean of 12.8 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause mortality. RESULTS: Age standardised mortality was highest...... (adjusted hazard ratio for men 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.59) and for women 0.60 (0.54 to 0.68)). CONCLUSION: Area income inequality is not in itself associated with all cause mortality in this Danish population. Adjustment for individual risk factors makes the apparent effect disappear...... in the parishes with the least equal income distribution. After adjustment for individual risk factors, parish income inequality was not associated with mortality, whereas individual household income was. Thus, individuals in the highest income quarter had lower mortality than those in the lowest quarter...

  13. Mortality risk and social network position in resident killer whales: sex differences and the importance of resource abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, S; Franks, D W; Nattrass, S; Cant, M A; Weiss, M N; Giles, D; Balcomb, K C; Croft, D P

    2017-10-25

    An individual's ecological environment affects their mortality risk, which in turn has fundamental consequences for life-history evolution. In many species, social relationships are likely to be an important component of an individual's environment, and therefore their mortality risk. Here, we examine the relationship between social position and mortality risk in resident killer whales ( Orcinus orca ) using over three decades of social and demographic data. We find that the social position of male, but not female, killer whales in their social unit predicts their mortality risk. More socially integrated males have a significantly lower risk of mortality than socially peripheral males, particularly in years of low prey abundance, suggesting that social position mediates access to resources. Male killer whales are larger and require more resources than females, increasing their vulnerability to starvation in years of low salmon abundance. More socially integrated males are likely to have better access to social information and food-sharing opportunities which may enhance their survival in years of low salmon abundance. Our results show that observable variation in the social environment is linked to variation in mortality risk, and highlight how sex differences in social effects on survival may be linked to sex differences in life-history evolution. © 2017 The Authors.

  14. Risk of cardiovascular disease and total mortality in adults with type 1 diabetes: Scottish registry linkage study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shona J Livingstone

    Full Text Available Randomized controlled trials have shown the importance of tight glucose control in type 1 diabetes (T1DM, but few recent studies have evaluated the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD and all-cause mortality among adults with T1DM. We evaluated these risks in adults with T1DM compared with the non-diabetic population in a nationwide study from Scotland and examined control of CVD risk factors in those with T1DM.The Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration database was used to identify all people registered with T1DM and aged ≥20 years in 2005-2007 and to provide risk factor data. Major CVD events and deaths were obtained from the national hospital admissions database and death register. The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR for CVD and mortality in T1DM (n = 21,789 versus the non-diabetic population (3.96 million was estimated using Poisson regression. The age-adjusted IRR for first CVD event associated with T1DM versus the non-diabetic population was higher in women (3.0: 95% CI 2.4-3.8, p<0.001 than men (2.3: 2.0-2.7, p<0.001 while the IRR for all-cause mortality associated with T1DM was comparable at 2.6 (2.2-3.0, p<0.001 in men and 2.7 (2.2-3.4, p<0.001 in women. Between 2005-2007, among individuals with T1DM, 34 of 123 deaths among 10,173 who were <40 years and 37 of 907 deaths among 12,739 who were ≥40 years had an underlying cause of death of coma or diabetic ketoacidosis. Among individuals 60-69 years, approximately three extra deaths per 100 per year occurred among men with T1DM (28.51/1,000 person years at risk, and two per 100 per year for women (17.99/1,000 person years at risk. 28% of those with T1DM were current smokers, 13% achieved target HbA(1c of <7% and 37% had very poor (≥9% glycaemic control. Among those aged ≥40, 37% had blood pressures above even conservative targets (≥140/90 mmHg and 39% of those ≥40 years were not on a statin. Although many of these risk factors were comparable to those

  15. Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdoulaye Maïga

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective: This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design: The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR, and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR. Results: Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010, despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions: Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving

  16. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. [Diabetes mellitus: Contribution to changes in the life expectancy in Mexico 1990, 2000, and 2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio A; Pardo Montaño, Ana M

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the level and trend of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Mexico, and its contribution to the changes in temporary life expectancy between 20 and 100 years of age, in the period 1990-2010. Data comes from National Mortality Vital Statistics and from the Population Census from the Mexican National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI). We calculated standardized mortality rates. To analyze the impact of DM on the temporary life expectancy (80e20) we used Pollard’s method. Between 1990 and 2010, the standardized mortality rate for people 20 years and older increased by 224 %. The contribution of DM for men to the change in life expectancy during 1990-2000 was a reduction of 0.31 years; for women was a reduction of 0.32 years; in the period 2000-2010 the reduction continued for both men and women (0.34 and 0.12 years respectively). Mortality from DM continues to increase, especially for men, but for women a modest reduction was observed. It is essential to apply health services and programs aimed at reducing mortality from this cause, focused on prevention, early detection and timely treatment, with concrete actions on vulnerable groups.

  18. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-08-01

    Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Mortality among retired fur workers. Dyers, dressers (tanners) and service workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sweeney, M.H.; Walrath, J.; Waxweiler, R.J.

    1985-08-01

    A retrospective cohort mortality study was conducted on 807 fur dyers, fur dressers (tanners), and fur service workers who were pensioned between 1952 and 1977 by the Fur, Leather and Machine Workers Union of New York City. Workplace exposures of fur workers varied with job category. Dyers were exposed to oxidative dyes used in commercial hair dyes; dressers and service workers were exposed to tanning chemicals. In a comparison with the New York City population, no significant increases in mortality were observed among the fur dyers. Among fur dressers, mortality from all malignant neoplasms and lung cancer was significantly elevated, as was mortality from cardiovascular disease among fur service workers. When examined by ethnic origin, the elevated SMR values and directly age-adjusted rate ratios suggested that foreign-born fur dressers and eastern European-born fur workers experienced the highest risks for lung and colorectal cancers, respectively. These data support previous findings of increased mortality from colorectal cancer in the foreign-born population of the United States and suggest a possible occupational etiology for the observed lung cancer excess.

  20. Interventional radiography and mortality risks in U.S. radiologic technologists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linet, Martha S.; Freedman, D.M.; Sigurdson, Alice J.; Doody, Michele M. [National Cancer Institute, Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States); Hauptmann, Michael [National Cancer Institute, Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States); Alexander, Bruce H. [University of Minnesota, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Miller, Jeremy [Information Management Services, Inc., Rockville, MD (United States)

    2006-09-15

    With the exponential increase in minimally invasive fluoroscopically guided interventional radiologic procedures, concern has increased about the health effects on staff and patients of radiation exposure from these procedures. There has been no systematic epidemiologic investigation to quantify serious disease risks or mortality. To quantify all-cause, circulatory system disease and cancer mortality risks in U.S. radiologic technologists who work with interventional radiographic procedures, we evaluated mortality risks in a nationwide cohort of 88,766 U.S. radiologic technologists (77% female) who completed a self-administered questionnaire during 1994-1998 and were followed through 31 December 2003. We obtained information on work experience, types of procedures (including fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures), and protective measures plus medical, family cancer history, lifestyle, and reproductive information. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compute relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Between completion of the questionnaire and the end of follow-up, there were 3,581 deaths, including 1,209 from malignancies and 979 from circulatory system diseases. Compared to radiologic technologists who never or rarely performed or assisted with fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures, all-cause mortality risks were not increased among those working on such procedures daily. Similarly, there was no increased risk of mortality resulting from all circulatory system diseases combined, all cancers combined, or female breast cancer among technologists who daily performed or assisted with fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures. Based on small numbers of deaths (n=151), there were non-significant excesses (40%-70%) in mortality from cerebrovascular disease among technologists ever working with these procedures. The absence of significantly elevated mortality risks in radiologic technologists reporting the