WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality

  1. Observed to expected or logistic regression to identify hospitals with high or low 30-day mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helgeland, Jon; Clench-Aas, Jocelyne; Laake, Petter; Veierød, Marit B.

    2018-01-01

    Introduction A common quality indicator for monitoring and comparing hospitals is based on death within 30 days of admission. An important use is to determine whether a hospital has higher or lower mortality than other hospitals. Thus, the ability to identify such outliers correctly is essential. Two approaches for detection are: 1) calculating the ratio of observed to expected number of deaths (OE) per hospital and 2) including all hospitals in a logistic regression (LR) comparing each hospital to a form of average over all hospitals. The aim of this study was to compare OE and LR with respect to correctly identifying 30-day mortality outliers. Modifications of the methods, i.e., variance corrected approach of OE (OE-Faris), bias corrected LR (LR-Firth), and trimmed mean variants of LR and LR-Firth were also studied. Materials and methods To study the properties of OE and LR and their variants, we performed a simulation study by generating patient data from hospitals with known outlier status (low mortality, high mortality, non-outlier). Data from simulated scenarios with varying number of hospitals, hospital volume, and mortality outlier status, were analysed by the different methods and compared by level of significance (ability to falsely claim an outlier) and power (ability to reveal an outlier). Moreover, administrative data for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, and hip fracture from Norwegian hospitals for 2012–2014 were analysed. Results None of the methods achieved the nominal (test) level of significance for both low and high mortality outliers. For low mortality outliers, the levels of significance were increased four- to fivefold for OE and OE-Faris. For high mortality outliers, OE and OE-Faris, LR 25% trimmed and LR-Firth 10% and 25% trimmed maintained approximately the nominal level. The methods agreed with respect to outlier status for 94.1% of the AMI hospitals, 98.0% of the stroke, and 97.8% of the hip fracture hospitals

  2. Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmussen TB

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Bøjer Rasmussen, Sinna Pilgaard Ulrichsen, Mette Nørgaard Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark Background: Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes.Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses.Materials and methods: We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations.Results: Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals’ estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54. In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Conclusion: The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most

  3. Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  5. Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

    2006-02-01

    A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

  6. Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

    2018-06-01

    Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

  7. What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

  8. Epidemiology, Management, and Risk-Adjusted Mortality of ICU-Acquired Enterococcal Bacteremia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ong, David S Y; Bonten, Marc J M; Safdari, Khatera; Spitoni, Cristian; Frencken, Jos F; Witteveen, Esther; Horn, Janneke; Klein Klouwenberg, Peter M C; Cremer, Olaf L

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND:  Enterococcal bacteremia has been associated with high case fatality, but it remains unknown to what extent death is caused by these infections. We therefore quantified attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteremia caused by enterococci. METHODS:  From 2011 to

  9. Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

    2005-09-15

    Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data.

  10. Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

    2017-12-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Performance of risk-adjusted control charts to monitor in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; de Jonge, Evert; Cook, David A.; Peek, Niels

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Increases in case-mix adjusted mortality may be indications of decreasing quality of care. Risk-adjusted control charts can be used for in-hospital mortality monitoring in intensive care units by issuing a warning signal when there are more deaths than expected. The aim of this study was

  12. Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

    2015-02-24

    Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, pUSA 8.6%, pUSA 11.2%, pUSA 77%, pUSA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

    2016-09-06

    Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

  14. Infections and risk-adjusted length of stay and hospital mortality in Polish Neonatology Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Różańska

    2015-06-01

    Conclusions: The general condition of VLBW infants statistically increase both their risk of mortality and LOS; this is in contrast to the presence of infection, which significantly prolonged LOS only.

  15. Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2010-08-20

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods

  16. Differences in case-mix can influence the comparison of standardised mortality ratios even with optimal risk adjustment: an analysis of data from paediatric intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manktelow, Bradley N; Evans, T Alun; Draper, Elizabeth S

    2014-09-01

    The publication of clinical outcomes for consultant surgeons in 10 specialties within the NHS has, along with national clinical audits, highlighted the importance of measuring and reporting outcomes with the aim of monitoring quality of care. Such information is vital to be able to identify good and poor practice and to inform patient choice. The need to adequately adjust outcomes for differences in case-mix has long been recognised as being necessary to provide 'like-for-like' comparisons between providers. However, directly comparing values of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) between different healthcare providers can be misleading even when the risk-adjustment perfectly quantifies the risk of a poor outcome in the reference population. An example is shown from paediatric intensive care. Using observed case-mix differences for 33 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the UK and Ireland for 2009-2011, SMRs were calculated under four different scenarios where, in each scenario, all of the PICUs were performing identically for each patient type. Each scenario represented a clinically plausible difference in outcome from the reference population. Despite the fact that the outcome for any patient was the same no matter which PICU they were to be admitted to, differences between the units were seen when compared using the SMR: scenario 1, 1.07-1.21; scenario 2, 1.00-1.14; scenario 3, 1.04-1.13; scenario 4, 1.00-1.09. Even if two healthcare providers are performing equally for each type of patient, if their patient populations differ in case-mix their SMRs will not necessarily take the same value. Clinical teams and commissioners must always keep in mind this weakness of the SMR when making decisions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. [Factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis: Development of a risk-adjusted model based on administrative data from German hospitals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Volker; Kolzter, Olaf; Albuszies, Gerd; Thölen, Frank

    2018-05-01

    Inpatient administrative data from hospitals is already used nationally and internationally in many areas of internal and public quality assurance in healthcare. For sepsis as the principal condition, only a few published approaches are available for Germany. The aim of this investigation is to identify factors influencing hospital mortality by employing appropriate analytical methods in order to improve the internal quality management of sepsis. The analysis was based on data from 754,727 DRG cases of the CLINOTEL hospital network charged in 2015. The association then included 45 hospitals of all supply levels with the exception of university hospitals (range of beds: 100 to 1,172 per hospital). Cases of sepsis were identified via the ICD codes of their principal diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors influencing in-hospital lethality for this population. The model was developed using sociodemographic and other potential variables that could be derived from the DRG data set, and taking into account current literature data. The model obtained was validated with inpatient administrative data of 2016 (51 hospitals, 850,776 DRG cases). Following the definition of the inclusion criteria, 5,608 cases of sepsis (2016: 6,384 cases) were identified in 2015. A total of 12 significant and, over both years, stable factors were identified, including age, severity of sepsis, reason for hospital admission and various comorbidities. The AUC value of the model, as a measure of predictability, is above 0.8 (H-L test p>0.05, R 2 value=0.27), which is an excellent result. The CLINOTEL model of risk adjustment for in-hospital lethality can be used to determine the mortality probability of patients with sepsis as principal diagnosis with a very high degree of accuracy, taking into account the case mix. Further studies are needed to confirm whether the model presented here will prove its value in the internal quality assurance of hospitals

  18. Inclusion of Functional Status Measures in the Risk Adjustment of 30-Day Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Suzanne V; O'Brien, Sean M; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Cohen, David J; Stebbins, Amanda; Brennan, J Matthew; Shahian, David M; Grover, Fred L; Holmes, David R; Thourani, Vinod H; Peterson, Eric D; Edwards, Fred H

    2018-03-26

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and

  19. Development and Validation of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Indicator for Mortality After Congenital Heart Surgery Harmonized With Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kathy J; Koch Kupiec, Jennifer; Owens, Pamela L; Romano, Patrick S; Geppert, Jeffrey J; Gauvreau, Kimberlee

    2016-05-20

    The National Quality Forum previously approved a quality indicator for mortality after congenital heart surgery developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Several parameters of the validated Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method were included, but others differed. As part of the National Quality Forum endorsement maintenance process, developers were asked to harmonize the 2 methodologies. Parameters that were identical between the 2 methods were retained. AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) 2008 were used to select optimal parameters where differences existed, with a goal to maximize model performance and face validity. Inclusion criteria were not changed and included all discharges for patients model includes procedure risk group, age (0-28 days, 29-90 days, 91-364 days, 1-17 years), low birth weight (500-2499 g), other congenital anomalies (Clinical Classifications Software 217, except for 758.xx), multiple procedures, and transfer-in status. Among 17 945 eligible cases in the SID 2008, the c statistic for model performance was 0.82. In the SID 2013 validation data set, the c statistic was 0.82. Risk-adjusted mortality rates by center ranged from 0.9% to 4.1% (5th-95th percentile). Congenital heart surgery programs can now obtain national benchmarking reports by applying AHRQ Quality Indicator software to hospital administrative data, based on the harmonized RACHS-1 method, with high discrimination and face validity. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  20. Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

    2006-08-01

    We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

  1. Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment Mortalidade neonatal: descrição e efeito do hospital de nascimento após ajuste de risco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aluísio J D Barros

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.OBJETIVO: Avaliar o efeito de hospital de nascimento na ocorrência de mortalidade neonatal. MÉTODOS: Uma coorte de nascimentos foi iniciada em Pelotas, em 2004. Todos os nascimentos hospitalares foram estudados em visitas diárias às maternidades da cidade, incluindo-se 4.558 recém-nascidos. As mães foram entrevistadas sobre fatores de risco em potencial e as mortes, monitoradas com visitas regulares aos

  3. Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

    2015-03-01

    A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

  4. Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

    2013-09-01

    BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

  5. Reduction of operative mortality after implementation of Surgical Outcomes Monitoring and Improvement Programme by Hong Kong Hospital Authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, W C; Wong, K; Cheung, Y S; Lai, P Bs

    2018-04-01

    Since 2008, the Hong Kong Hospital Authority has implemented a Surgical Outcomes Monitoring and Improvement Programme (SOMIP) at 17 public hospitals with surgical departments. This study aimed to assess the change in operative mortality rate after implementation of SOMIP. The SOMIP included all Hospital Authority patients undergoing major/ultra-major procedures in general surgery, urology, plastic surgery, and paediatric surgery. Patients undergoing liver or renal transplantation or who had multiple trauma or massive bowel ischaemia were excluded. In SOMIP, data retrieval from the Hospital Authority patient database was performed by six full-time nurse reviewers following a set of precise data definitions. A total of 230 variables were collected for each patient, on demographics, preoperative and operative variables, laboratory test results, and postoperative complications up to 30 days after surgery. In this study, we used SOMIP cumulative 5-year data to generate risk-adjusted 30-day mortality models by hierarchical logistic regression for both emergency and elective operations. The models expressed overall performance as an annual observed-to-expected mortality ratio. From 2009/2010 to 2015/2016, the overall crude mortality rate decreased from 10.8% to 5.6% for emergency procedures and from 0.9% to 0.4% for elective procedures. From 2011/2012 to 2015/2016, the risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality ratios showed a significant downward trend for both emergency and elective operations: from 1.126 to 0.796 and from 1.150 to 0.859, respectively (Mann- Kendall statistic = -0.8; PAuthority's overall crude mortality rates and risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality ratios for emergency and elective operations significantly declined after SOMIP was implemented.

  6. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  7. 42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... that are used in the development and application of a risk adjustment payment model. (b) Data... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PROGRAM Payments to Medicare Advantage Organizations § 422... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may...

  8. Competition Leverage : How the Demand Side Affects Optimal Risk Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, M.; Boone, J.; Zwart, Gijsbert

    2011-01-01

    We study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First, we find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences

  9. Ants avoid superinfections by performing risk-adjusted sanitary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Matthias; Pull, Christopher D; Metzler, Sina; Seif, Katharina; Naderlinger, Elisabeth; Grasse, Anna V; Cremer, Sylvia

    2018-03-13

    Being cared for when sick is a benefit of sociality that can reduce disease and improve survival of group members. However, individuals providing care risk contracting infectious diseases themselves. If they contract a low pathogen dose, they may develop low-level infections that do not cause disease but still affect host immunity by either decreasing or increasing the host's vulnerability to subsequent infections. Caring for contagious individuals can thus significantly alter the future disease susceptibility of caregivers. Using ants and their fungal pathogens as a model system, we tested if the altered disease susceptibility of experienced caregivers, in turn, affects their expression of sanitary care behavior. We found that low-level infections contracted during sanitary care had protective or neutral effects on secondary exposure to the same (homologous) pathogen but consistently caused high mortality on superinfection with a different (heterologous) pathogen. In response to this risk, the ants selectively adjusted the expression of their sanitary care. Specifically, the ants performed less grooming and more antimicrobial disinfection when caring for nestmates contaminated with heterologous pathogens compared with homologous ones. By modulating the components of sanitary care in this way the ants acquired less infectious particles of the heterologous pathogens, resulting in reduced superinfection. The performance of risk-adjusted sanitary care reveals the remarkable capacity of ants to react to changes in their disease susceptibility, according to their own infection history and to flexibly adjust collective care to individual risk.

  10. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

    1994-01-01

    The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

  11. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  12. The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance.

    OpenAIRE

    Elton, Edwin J; Gruber, Martin J; Blake, Christopher R

    1996-01-01

    The authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns. They find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with ...

  13. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  14. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  15. A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2016-12-01

    To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  16. Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

    2003-07-01

    Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

  17. Risk-adjusted capitation: Recent experiences in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the

  18. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that

  19. Portfolio balancing and risk adjusted values under constrained budget conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    For a given hydrocarbon exploration opportunity, the influences of value, cost, success probability and corporate risk tolerance provide an optimal working interest that should be taken in the opportunity in order to maximize the risk adjusted value. When several opportunities are available, but when the total budget is insufficient to take optimal working interest in each, an analytic procedure is given for optimizing the risk adjusted value of the total portfolio; the relevant working interests are also derived based on a cost exposure constraint. Several numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit the use of the method under different budget conditions, and with different numbers of available opportunities. When value, cost, success probability, and risk tolerance are uncertain for each and every opportunity, the procedure is generalized to allow determination of probable optimal risk adjusted value for the total portfolio and, at the same time, the range of probable working interest that should be taken in each opportunity is also provided. The result is that the computations of portfolio balancing can be done quickly in either deterministic or probabilistic manners on a small calculator, thereby providing rapid assessments of opportunities and their worth to a corporation. (Author)

  20. Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

    2009-02-01

    Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

  1. Diagnostic Risk Adjustment for Medicaid: The Disability Payment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronick, Richard; Dreyfus, Tony; Lee, Lora; Zhou, Zhiyuan

    1996-01-01

    This article describes a system of diagnostic categories that Medicaid programs can use for adjusting capitation payments to health plans that enroll people with disability. Medicaid claims from Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New York, and Ohio are analyzed to demonstrate that the greater predictability of costs among people with disabilities makes risk adjustment more feasible than for a general population and more critical to creating health systems for people with disability. The application of our diagnostic categories to State claims data is described, including estimated effects on subsequent-year costs of various diagnoses. The challenges of implementing adjustment by diagnosis are explored. PMID:10172665

  2. Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

    1996-01-01

    Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

  3. Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

    2014-05-01

    Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

  4. Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

    2006-12-01

    To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, prisk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

  5. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  6. Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

    2012-08-01

    Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

  7. Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

    2012-05-01

    The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

  8. Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-06

    Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

  9. Risk adjustment of health-care performance measures in a multinational register-based study: A pragmatic approach to a complicated topic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tron Anders Moger

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health-care performance comparisons across countries are gaining popularity. In such comparisons, the risk adjustment methodology plays a key role for meaningful comparisons. However, comparisons may be complicated by the fact that not all participating countries are allowed to share their data across borders, meaning that only simple methods are easily used for the risk adjustment. In this study, we develop a pragmatic approach using patient-level register data from Finland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Methods: Data on acute myocardial infarction patients were gathered from health-care registers in several countries. In addition to unadjusted estimates, we studied the effects of adjusting for age, gender, and a number of comorbidities. The stability of estimates for 90-day mortality and length of stay of the first hospital episode following diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction is studied graphically, using different choices of reference data. Logistic regression models are used for mortality, and negative binomial models are used for length of stay. Results: Results from the sensitivity analysis show that the various models of risk adjustment give similar results for the countries, with some exceptions for Hungary and Italy. Based on the results, in Finland and Hungary, the 90-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction is higher than in Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Conclusion: Health-care registers give encouraging possibilities to performance measurement and enable the comparison of entire patient populations between countries. Risk adjustment methodology is affected by the availability of data, and thus, the building of risk adjustment methodology must be transparent, especially when doing multinational comparative research. In that case, even basic methods of risk adjustment may still be valuable.

  10. Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

    2013-06-01

    Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. Urban, tertiary academic medical center. All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other

  11. Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

    2016-01-01

    Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  13. Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

    2011-01-01

    Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

  14. Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

  15. Then we all fall down: fall mortality by trauma center level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubik, Daniel; Cook, Alan D; Ward, Jeanette G; Chapple, Kristina M; Teperman, Sheldon; Stone, Melvin E; Gross, Brian; Moore, Forrest O

    2017-09-01

    Ground-level falls (GLFs) are the predominant mechanism of injury in US trauma centers and accompany a spectrum of comorbidities, injury severity, and physiologic derangement. Trauma center levels define tiers of capability to treat injured patients. We hypothesized that risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality (O:E) by trauma center level would evaluate the degree to which need for care was met by provision of care. This retrospective cohort study used National Trauma Data Bank files for 2007-2014. Trauma center level was defined as American College of Surgeons (ACS) level I/II, ACS III/IV, State I/II, and State III/IV for within-group homogeneity. Risk-adjusted expected mortality was estimated using hierarchical, multivariable regression techniques. Analysis of 812,053 patients' data revealed the proportion of GLF in the National Trauma Data Bank increased 8.7% (14.1%-22.8%) over the 8 y studied. Mortality was 4.21% overall with a three-fold increase for those aged 60 y and older versus younger than 60 y (4.93% versus 1.46%, P < 0.001). O:E was lowest for ACS III/IV, (0.973, 95% CI: 0.971-0.975) and highest for State III/IV (1.043, 95% CI: 1.041-1.044). Risk-adjusted outcomes can be measured and meaningfully compared among groups of trauma centers. Differential O:E for ACS III/IV and State III/IV centers suggests that factors beyond case mix alone influence outcomes for GLF patients. More work is needed to optimize trauma care for GLF patients across the spectrum of trauma center capability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

  17. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall P. Ellis

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems.

  18. The risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors: A South African case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkhethwa Mkhize

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to examine the effects of female directors on the risk-adjusted performance of firms listed on the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (the JSE. The theoretical underpinning for the relationship between representation of female directors and the risk-adjusted performance of companies was based on institutional theory. The hypothesis that there is no difference between the risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors and that of companies without female directors was rejected. Implications of the results are discussed and suggestions for future research presented.

  19. Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

    2009-04-30

    The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

  20. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  1. Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

  2. The Experience of Risk-Adjusted Capitation Payment for Family Physicians in Iran: A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Reza; Hadian, Mohammad; Rashidian, Arash; Shariati, Mohammad; Ghaderi, Hossien

    2016-04-01

    When a country's health system is faced with fundamental flaws that require the redesign of financing and service delivery, primary healthcare payment systems are often reformed. This study was conducted with the purpose of exploring the experiences of risk-adjusted capitation payment of urban family physicians in Iran when it comes to providing primary health care (PHC). This is a qualitative study using the framework method. Data were collected via digitally audio-recorded semi-structured interviews with 24 family physicians and 5 executive directors in two provinces of Iran running the urban family physician pilot program. The participants were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. The codes were extracted using inductive and deductive methods. Regarding the effects of risk-adjusted capitation on the primary healthcare setting, five themes with 11 subthemes emerged, including service delivery, institutional structure, financing, people's behavior, and the challenges ahead. Our findings indicated that the health system is enjoying some major changes in the primary healthcare setting through the implementation of risk-adjusted capitation payment. With regard to the current challenges in Iran's health system, using risk-adjusted capitation as a primary healthcare payment system can lead to useful changes in the health system's features. However, future research should focus on the development of the risk-adjusted capitation model.

  3. Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

    2000-02-01

    In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

  4. Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamers, L M

    Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

  5. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  6. Prior use of durable medical equipment as a risk adjuster for health-based capitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.C. van Kleef (Richard); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines a new risk adjuster for capitation payments to Dutch health plans, based on the prior use of durable medical equipment (DME). The essence is to classify users of DME in a previous year into clinically homogeneous classes and to apply the resulting classification as a

  7. A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

    2018-01-01

    Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk-adjusted survival after tissue versus mechanical aortic valve replacement: a 23-year assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaca, Jeffrey G; Clare, Robert M; Rankin, J Scott; Daneshmand, Mani A; Milano, Carmelo A; Hughes, G Chad; Wolfe, Walter G; Glower, Donald D; Smith, Peter K

    2013-11-01

    Detailed analyses of risk-adjusted outcomes after mitral valve surgery have documented significant survival decrements with tissue valves at any age. Several recent studies of prosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) also have suggested a poorer performance of tissue valves, although analyses have been limited to small matched series. The study aim was to test the hypothesis that AVR with tissue valves is associated with a lower risk-adjusted survival, as compared to mechanical valves. Between 1986 and 2009, primary isolated AVR, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), was performed with currently available valve types in 2148 patients (1108 tissue valves, 1040 mechanical). Patients were selected for tissue valves to be used primarily in the elderly. Baseline and operative characteristics were documented prospectively with a consistent variable set over the entire 23-year period. Follow up was obtained with mailed questionnaires, supplemented by National Death Index searches. The average time to death or follow up was seven years, and follow up for survival was 96.2% complete. Risk-adjusted survival characteristics for the two groups were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection of candidate variables. Differences in baseline characteristics between groups were (tissue versus mechanical): median age 73 versus 61 years; non-elective surgery 32% versus 28%; CABG 45% versus 35%; median ejection fraction 55% versus 55%; renal failure 6% versus 1%; diabetes 18% versus 7% (pvalves; however, after risk adjustment for the adverse profiles of tissue valve patients, no significant difference was observed in survival after tissue or mechanical AVR. Thus, the hypothesis did not hold, and risk-adjusted survival was equivalent, of course qualified by the fact that selection bias was evident. With selection criteria that employed tissue AVR more frequently in elderly patients, tissue and mechanical valves achieved similar survival

  9. Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

    2007-12-01

    Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

  10. Does risk-adjusted payment influence primary care providers’ decision on where to set up practices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta; Dietrichson, Jens

    2018-01-01

    Background: Providing equal access to healthcare is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where private providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access...... to care, 15 out 21 county councils in Sweden have implemented risk-adjusted capitation based on the Care Need Index, which increases capitation to primary care centers with a large share of patients with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Our aim is to estimate the effects of using...... Index values. Results: Risk-adjusted capitation significantly increases the number of private primary care centers in areas with relatively high Care Need Index values. The adjustment results in a changed distribution of private centers within county councils; the total number of private centers does...

  11. Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, K; Walsh, M

    2000-01-01

    This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

  12. Screening techniques, sustainability and risk adjusted returns. : - A quantitative study on the Swedish equity funds market

    OpenAIRE

    Ögren, Tobias; Forslund, Petter

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have primarily compared the performance of sustainable equity funds and non-sustainable equity funds. A meta-analysis over 85 different studies in the field concludes that there is no statistically significant difference in risk-adjusted returns when comparing sustainable funds and non-sustainable funds. This study is thus an extension on previous studies where the authors have chosen to test the two most common sustainability screening techniques to test if there is a differ...

  13. The Impact of Capital Structure on Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Porteous, Bruce; Tapadar, Pradip

    2008-01-01

    The impact that capital structure and capital asset allocation have on financial services firm economic capital and risk adjusted performance is considered. A stochastic modelling approach is used in conjunction with banking and insurance examples. It is demonstrated that gearing up Tier 1 capital with Tier 2 capital can be in the interests of bank Tier 1 capital providers, but may not always be so for insurance Tier 1 capital providers. It is also shown that, by allocating a bank or insuranc...

  14. Does Risk-Adjusted Payment Influence Primary Care Providers' Decision on Where to Set Up Practices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietrichson, Jens; Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta

    Providing equal access to health care is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access to care, 15 out 21 county...... of private primary care centers in areas with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. More generally, this result indicates that risk-adjusted capitation can significantly affect private providers’ establishment decisions....

  15. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  17. Improved implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor surgical outcome quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, Matthew J; Loda, Justin B; Elhabashy, Ahmad E; Woodall, William H

    2017-06-01

    The traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart for monitoring surgical outcome quality requires waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery before incorporating patient outcome information. We propose a simple but powerful implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart that incorporates outcome information as soon as it is available, rather than waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery. A simulation study is presented that compares the performance of the traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to our improved implementation. We show that incorporating patient outcome information as soon as it is available leads to quicker detection of process deterioration. Deterioration of surgical performance could be detected much sooner using our proposed implementation, which could lead to the earlier identification of problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  18. Risk selection and risk adjustment: improving insurance in the individual and small group markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baicker, Katherine; Dow, William H

    2009-01-01

    Insurance market reforms face the key challenge of addressing the threat that risk selection poses to the availability, of stable, high-value insurance policies that provide long-term risk protection. Many of the strategies in use today fail to address this breakdown in risk pooling, and some even exacerbate it. Flexible risk adjustment schemes are a promising avenue for promoting market stability and limiting insurer cream-skimming, potentially providing greater benefits at lower cost. Reforms intended to increase insurance coverage and the value of care delivered will be much more effective if implemented in conjunction with policies that address these fundamental selection issues.

  19. Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

    2018-02-21

    The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p reimbursement (p reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied significantly by state (p ≤ 0.01). Risk adjustment incorporating specific comorbidities demonstrated better performance than with use of DRG alone (r = 0.22 versus 0.15). Our results suggest that the proposed SHFFT bundled payment model should use more robust risk-adjustment methods to ensure that providers are reimbursed fairly and that

  20. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  1. Usefulness of administrative databases for risk adjustment of adverse events in surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Rincón, Isabel; Martin-Vizcaíno, Marta P; Tirapu-León, Belén; Zabalza-López, Pedro; Abad-Vicente, Francisco J; Merino-Peralta, Asunción; Oteiza-Martínez, Fabiola

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of clinical-administrative databases for the development of risk adjustment in the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. The study was conducted at the Hospital of Navarra, a tertiary teaching hospital in northern Spain. We studied 1602 hospitalizations of surgical patients from 2008 to 2010. We analysed 40 comorbidity variables included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement (NSQIP) Program of the American College of Surgeons using 2 sources of information: The clinical and administrative database (CADB) and the data extracted from the complete clinical records (CR), which was considered the gold standard. Variables were catalogued according to compliance with the established criteria: sensitivity, positive predictive value and kappa coefficient >0.6. The average number of comorbidities per study participant was 1.6 using the CR and 0.95 based on CADB (p<.0001). Thirteen types of comorbidities (accounting for 8% of the comorbidities detected in the CR) were not identified when the CADB was the source of information. Five of the 27 remaining comorbidities complied with the 3 established criteria; 2 pathologies fulfilled 2 criteria, whereas 11 fulfilled 1, and 9 did not fulfil any criterion. CADB detected prevalent comorbidities such as comorbid hypertension and diabetes. However, the CABD did not provide enough information to assess the variables needed to perform the risk adjustment proposed by the NSQIP for the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  2. Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Ajay; Donohue, Fionnuala; Johnson, Howard; Cunney, Robert

    2016-01-01

    As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed. PMID:27541730

  3. Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Breeds of risk-adjusted fundamentalist strategies in an order-driven market

    Science.gov (United States)

    LiCalzi, Marco; Pellizzari, Paolo

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies an order-driven stock market where agents have heterogeneous estimates of the fundamental value of the risky asset. The agents are budget-constrained and follow a value-based trading strategy which buys or sells depending on whether the price of the asset is below or above its risk-adjusted fundamental value. This environment generates returns that are remarkably leptokurtic and fat-tailed. By extending the study over a grid of different parameters for the fundamentalist trading strategy, we exhibit the existence of monotone relationships between the bid-ask spread demanded by the agents and several statistics of the returns. We conjecture that this effect, coupled with positive dependence of the risk premium on the volatility, generates positive feedbacks that might explain volatility bursts.

  5. PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

  6. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  7. Public Reporting of Primary Care Clinic Quality: Accounting for Sociodemographic Factors in Risk Adjustment and Performance Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wholey, Douglas R; Finch, Michael; Kreiger, Rob; Reeves, David

    2018-01-03

    Performance measurement and public reporting are increasingly being used to compare clinic performance. Intended consequences include quality improvement, value-based payment, and consumer choice. Unintended consequences include reducing access for riskier patients and inappropriately labeling some clinics as poor performers, resulting in tampering with stable care processes. Two analytic steps are used to maximize intended and minimize unintended consequences. First, risk adjustment is used to reduce the impact of factors outside providers' control. Second, performance categorization is used to compare clinic performance using risk-adjusted measures. This paper examines the effects of methodological choices, such as risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors in risk adjustment and accounting for patients clustering by clinics in performance categorization, on clinic performance comparison for diabetes care, vascular care, asthma, and colorectal cancer screening. The population includes all patients with commercial and public insurance served by clinics in Minnesota. Although risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors has a significant effect on quality, it does not explain much of the variation in quality. In contrast, taking into account the nesting of patients within clinics in performance categorization has a substantial effect on performance comparison.

  8. Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs based on the minimum data set for home care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirdes John P

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC. Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a client covariates only; b client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI. Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did

  9. Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs) based on the minimum data set for home care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalby, Dawn M; Hirdes, John P; Fries, Brant E

    2005-01-01

    Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs) based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC). Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA) in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a) client covariates only; b) client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP) to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c) client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI). Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did substantially affect the

  10. The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

    2004-06-01

    Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

  11. Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McWilliams, J Michael

    2016-03-01

    Spending targets (or benchmarks) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program must be set carefully to encourage program participation while achieving fiscal goals and minimizing unintended consequences, such as penalizing ACOs for serving sicker patients. Recently proposed regulatory changes include measures to make benchmarks more similar for ACOs in the same area with different historical spending levels. We found that ACOs vary widely in how their spending levels compare with those of other local providers after standard case-mix adjustments. Additionally adjusting for survey measures of patient health meaningfully reduced the variation in differences between ACO spending and local average fee-for-service spending, but substantial variation remained, which suggests that differences in care efficiency between ACOs and local non-ACO providers vary widely. Accordingly, measures to equilibrate benchmarks between high- and low-spending ACOs--such as setting benchmarks to risk-adjusted average fee-for-service spending in an area--should be implemented gradually to maintain participation by ACOs with high spending. Use of survey information also could help mitigate perverse incentives for risk selection and upcoding and limit unintended consequences of new benchmarking methodologies for ACOs serving sicker patients. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  13. A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

    2013-03-01

    In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  14. A STUDY ON THE RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS INDUSTRY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shivangi Agarwal

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Investing through mutual funds has gained interest in recent years as it offers optimal risk adjusted returns to investors. The Indian market is no exception and has witnessed a multifold growth in mutual funds over the years. As of 2016, the Indian market is crowded with over two thousand mutual fund schemes, each promising higher returns compared to their peers. This comes as a challenge for an ordinary investor to select the best portfolio to invest making it critical to analyse the performance of these funds. While understanding and analysing the historical performance of mutual funds do not guarantee future performance, however, this may give an idea of how the fund is likely to perform in different market conditions. In this research we address multiple research issues. These include measuring the performance of selected mutual schemes on the basis of risk and return and compare the performance of these selected schemes with benchmark index to see whether the scheme is outperforming or underperforming the benchmark. We also rank funds on the basis of performance and suggest strategies to invest in a mutual fund and therefore, our findings have significant relevance for investing public.

  15. Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

    2014-10-01

    We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Risk-Adjusted Analysis of Relevant Outcome Drivers for Patients after More Than Two Kidney Transplants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lampros Kousoulas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients suffering end-stage renal disease, but as the long-term renal allograft survival is limited, most transplant recipients will face graft loss and will be considered for a retransplantation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the patient and graft survival of the 61 renal transplant recipients after second or subsequent renal transplantation, transplanted in our institution between 1990 and 2010, and to identify risk factors related to inferior outcomes. Actuarial patient survival was 98.3%, 94.8%, and 88.2% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Actuarial graft survival was 86.8%, 80%, and 78.1% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Risk-adjusted analysis revealed that only age at the time of last transplantation had a significant influence on patient survival, whereas graft survival was influenced by multiple immunological and surgical factors, such as the number of HLA mismatches, the type of immunosuppression, the number of surgical complications, need of reoperation, primary graft nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, third and subsequent renal transplantation constitute a valid therapeutic option, but inferior outcomes should be expected among elderly patients, hyperimmunized recipients, and recipients with multiple operations at the site of last renal transplantation.

  17. Profile of congenital heart disease and correlation to risk adjustment for surgery; an echocardiographic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhtar, K.; Ahmed, W.

    2008-01-01

    To determine the pattern and profile of Congenital Heart Diseases (CHD) in paediatric patients (age 1 day to 18 years) presenting to a paediatric tertiary referral centre and its correlation to risk adjustment for surgery for congenital heart disease. Over a period of 6 months, 1149 cases underwent 2-D echocardiography. It was a non-probability purposive sampling. This study showed 25% of all referrals had normal hearts. A male preponderance (38%) was observed from 1 year to 5 years age group. Nineteen percent of the cases were categorized as cyanotic CHD with the remaining as acyanotic variety. Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) represented 10%, Ventricular Septal Defects (VSD) 24%, followed by Patent Ductus Arteriosus (PDA) and Atrial Septal Defect (ASD), which comprised 6.6% and 6.5% respectively. VSD was the most common association in patients with more complex CHD (10%) followed by PDA in 3% and ASD in 1.2% of the cases. Most of the cases were category 2 in the RACHS-1 scoring system. VSD and TOF formed the major groups of cases profiled. Most of the cases recommended for surgery for congenital heart disease belonged to the risk category 2 (28.1%) followed by the risk category 1 (12.7%) of the RACHS-1 scoring system. (author)

  18. Measuring Risk-adjusted Customer Lifetime Value and its Impact on Relationship Marketing Strategies and Shareholder Value

    OpenAIRE

    Ryals, Lynette; Knox, Simon

    2005-01-01

    The calculations which underlie efforts to balance marketing spending on customer acquisition and customer retention are usually based on either single- period customer profitability or forecasts of customer lifetime value (CLTV). This paper argues instead for risk-adjusted CLTV, which is termed the economic value (EV) of a customer, as the means for marketing to assess both customer profitability and shareholder value gains.

  19. Quality measurement in the shunt treatment of hydrocephalus: analysis and risk adjustment of the Revision Quotient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatt, Joseph H; Freibott, Christina E

    2014-07-01

    OBJECT.: The Revision Quotient (RQ) has been defined as the ratio of the number of CSF shunt revisions to the number of new shunt insertions for a particular neurosurgical practice in a unit of time. The RQ has been proposed as a quality measure in the treatment of childhood hydrocephalus. The authors examined the construct validity of the RQ and explored the feasibility of risk stratification under this metric. The Kids' Inpatient Database for 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 was queried for admissions with diagnostic codes for hydrocephalus and procedural codes for CSF shunt insertion or revision. Revision quotients were calculated for hospitals that performed 12 or more shunt insertions annually. The univariate associations of hospital RQs with a variety of institutional descriptors were analyzed, and a generalized linear model of the RQ was constructed. There were 12,244 admissions (34%) during which new shunts were inserted, and there were 23,349 admissions (66%) for shunt revision. Three hundred thirty-four annual RQs were calculated for 152 different hospitals. Analysis of variance in hospital RQs over the 5 years of study data supports the construct validity of the metric. The following factors were incorporated into a generalized linear model that accounted for 41% of the variance of the measured RQs: degree of pediatric specialization, proportion of initial case mix in the infant age group, and proportion with neoplastic hydrocephalus. The RQ has construct validity. Risk adjustment is feasible, but the risk factors that were identified relate predominantly to patterns of patient flow through the health care system. Possible advantages of an alternative metric, the Surgical Activity Ratio, are discussed.

  20. Risk-adjusted capitation funding models for chronic disease in Australia: alternatives to casemix funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, K M; Walsh, M K

    2002-01-01

    Under Australian casemix funding arrangements that use Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) the average price is policy based, not benchmarked. Cost weights are too low for State-wide chronic disease services. Risk-adjusted Capitation Funding Models (RACFM) are feasible alternatives. A RACFM was developed for public patients with cystic fibrosis treated by an Australian Health Maintenance Organization (AHMO). Adverse selection is of limited concern since patients pay solidarity contributions via Medicare levy with no premium contributions to the AHMO. Sponsors paying premium subsidies are the State of Victoria and the Federal Government. Cost per patient is the dependent variable in the multiple regression. Data on DRG 173 (cystic fibrosis) patients were assessed for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, structural stability and functional form. Stepwise linear regression excluded non-significant variables. Significant variables were 'emergency' (1276.9), 'outlier' (6377.1), 'complexity' (3043.5), 'procedures' (317.4) and the constant (4492.7) (R(2)=0.21, SE=3598.3, F=14.39, Probpayment (constant). The model explained 21% of the variance in cost per patient. The payment rate is adjusted by a best practice annual admission rate per patient. The model is a blended RACFM for in-patient, out-patient, Hospital In The Home, Fee-For-Service Federal payments for drugs and medical services; lump sum lung transplant payments and risk sharing through cost (loss) outlier payments. State and Federally funded home and palliative services are 'carved out'. The model, which has national application via Coordinated Care Trials and by Australian States for RACFMs may be instructive for Germany, which plans to use Australian DRGs for casemix funding. The capitation alternative for chronic disease can improve equity, allocative efficiency and distributional justice. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) is a promising alternative classification system for capitation arrangements.

  1. Tracheostomy is associated with decreased hospital mortality after moderate or severe isolated traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, David Marek; Hochrieser, Helene; Metnitz, Philipp G H; Mauritz, Walter

    2016-06-01

    Data regarding the impact and timing of tracheostomy in patients with isolated traumatic brain injury (TBI) are ambiguous. Our goal was to evaluate the impact of tracheostomy on hospital mortality in patients with moderate or severe isolated TBI. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of data prospectively collected at 87 Austrian intensive care units (ICUs). All patients continuously admitted between 1998 and 2010 were evaluated for the study. In total, 4,735 patients were admitted to ICUs with isolated TBI. Of these patients, 2,156 had a moderate or severe TBI (1,603 patients were endotracheally intubated only, 553 patients underwent tracheostomy). Epidemiological data (trauma severity, treatment, and outcome) of the two groups were compared. Patients with moderate or severe isolated TBI undergoing tracheostomy had a similar Glasgow Coma Scale score, median (interquartile range): 6 (3-8) vs 6 (3-8); p = 0.90, and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, 45 (37-54) vs 45 (35-56); p = 0.86, compared with intubated patients not undergoing tracheostomy. Furthermore, patients undergoing tracheostomy exhibited higher Abbreviated Injury Scale Head scores and had a longer ICU stay for survivors, 30 (22-42) vs 9 (3-17) days; p tracheostomy compared with patients who remained intubated, observed-to-expected mortality ratio (95 % confidence interval): 0.62 (0.53-0.72) vs 1.00 (0.95-1.05) respectively. Despite the greater severity of head injury, patients with isolated TBI who underwent tracheostomy had a lower risk-adjusted mortality than patients who remained intubated. Reasons for this difference in outcome may be multifactorial and require further investigation.

  2. Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N

    2014-07-01

    A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright

  3. The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult

  4. A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

  5. Improving Results of Elective Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair at a Low-Volume Hospital by Risk-Adjusted Selection of Treatment in the Endovascular Era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wibmer, Andreas; Meyer, Bernhard; Albrecht, Thomas; Buhr, Heinz-Johannes; Kruschewski, Martin

    2009-01-01

    open repair was reduced from 8.5% to 3.7% (p = 0.414). In conclusion, by risk-adjusted selection of treatment and frequent application of EVAR, it is possible to improve perioperative outcome of elective AAA repair at a low-volume hospital. Mortality figures are similar to those of recent trials at high-volume centers, as reported in the literature.

  6. Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

    2017-12-06

    For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, Montserrat; Jarner, Søren Fiig; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

    2014-01-01

    The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  8. A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

    2016-04-01

    Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

  9. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  10. [Risk adjusted assessment of quality of perinatal centers - results of perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance in Saxonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, R; Gmyrek, D; Vogtmann, Ch

    2005-12-01

    The weak point of the country-wide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance as a tool for evaluation of achievements of a distinct clinic, is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case-mix of patients. Therefore, that approach can not result in a reliable bench marking. To adjust the results of quality assessment of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal data base of 12.783 newborns of the saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2000 was analyzed. 4 relevant quality indicators of newborn outcome -- a) severe intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants 2500 g and d) hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy -- were targeted to find out specific risk predictors by considering 26 risk factors. A logistic regression model was used to develop the risk predictors. Risk predictors for the 4 quality indicators could be described by 3 - 9 out of 26 analyzed risk factors. The AUC (ROC)-values for these quality indicators were 82, 89, 89 and 89 %, what signifies their reliability. Using the new specific predictors for calculation the risk adjusted incidence rates of quality indicator yielded in some remarkable changes. The apparent differences in the outcome criteria of analyzed hospitals were found to be much less pronounced. The application of the proposed method for risk adjustment of quality indicators makes it possible to perform a more objective comparison of neonatal outcome criteria between different hospitals or regions.

  11. A risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost of a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Tentzeris, Vasileios; Sandri, Alberto; McKenna, Alexandra; Liew, Shan Liung; Milton, Richard; Chaudhuri, Nilanjan; Kefaloyannis, Emmanuel; Papagiannopoulos, Kostas

    2016-05-01

    To develop a clinically risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost associated with a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy programme. Prospectively collected data of 236 VATS lobectomy patients (August 2012-December 2013) were analysed retrospectively. Fixed and variable intraoperative and postoperative costs were retrieved from the Hospital Accounting Department. Baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with total cost using a multivariable linear regression and bootstrap analyses. Costs were calculated in GBP and expressed in Euros (EUR:GBP exchange rate 1.4). The average total cost of a VATS lobectomy was €11 368 (range €6992-€62 535). Average intraoperative (including surgical and anaesthetic time, overhead, disposable materials) and postoperative costs [including ward stay, high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and variable costs associated with management of complications] were €8226 (range €5656-€13 296) and €3029 (range €529-€51 970), respectively. The following variables remained reliably associated with total costs after linear regression analysis and bootstrap: carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) 0.05) in 86% of the samples. A hypothetical patient with COPD and DLCO less than 60% would cost €4270 more than a patient without COPD and with higher DLCO values (€14 793 vs €10 523). Risk-adjusting financial data can help estimate the total cost associated with VATS lobectomy based on clinical factors. This model can be used to audit the internal financial performance of a VATS lobectomy programme for budgeting, planning and for appropriate bundled payment reimbursements. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  12. A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

    2018-04-17

    The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. The relationship between the C-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: a Monte Carlo Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Reeves, Mathew J

    2013-03-01

    Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of 3 factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card.

  14. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  15. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  16. Introducing risk adjustment and free health plan choice in employer-based health insurance: Evidence from Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilny, Adam; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R

    2017-12-01

    To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Mandatory pooling as a supplement to risk-adjusted capitation payments in a competitive health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M; van Vliet, R C; van de Ven, W P

    1998-07-01

    Risk-adjusted capitation payments (RACPs) to competing health insurers are an essential element of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. RACPs based on demographic variables only are insufficient, because they leave ample room for cream skimming. However, the implementation of improved RACPs does not appear to be straightforward. A solution might be to supplement imperfect RACPs with a form of mandatory pooling that reduces the incentives for cream skimming. In a previous paper it was concluded that high-risk pooling (HRP), is a promising supplement to RACPs. The purpose of this paper is to compare HRP with two other main variants of mandatory pooling. These variants are called excess-of-loss (EOL) and proportional pooling (PP). Each variant includes ex post compensations to insurers for some members which depend to various degrees on actually incurred costs. Therefore, these pooling variants reduce the incentives for cream skimming which are inherent in imperfect RACPs, but they also reduce the incentives for efficiency and cost containment. As a rough measure of the latter incentives we use the percentage of total costs for which an insurer is at risk. This paper analyzes which of the three main pooling variants yields the greatest reduction of incentives for cream skimming given such a percentage. The results show that HRP is the most effective of the three pooling variants.

  18. The impact of aortic manipulation on neurologic outcomes after coronary artery bypass surgery: a risk-adjusted study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapetanakis, Emmanouil I; Stamou, Sotiris C; Dullum, Mercedes K C; Hill, Peter C; Haile, Elizabeth; Boyce, Steven W; Bafi, Ammar S; Petro, Kathleen R; Corso, Paul J

    2004-11-01

    Cerebral embolization of atherosclerotic plaque debris caused by aortic manipulation during conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is a major mechanism of postoperative cerebrovascular accidents (CVA). Off-pump CABG (OPCABG) reduces stroke rates by minimizing aortic manipulation. Consequently, the effect of different levels of aortic manipulation on neurologic outcomes after CABG surgery was examined. From January 1998 to June 2002, 7,272 patients underwent isolated CABG surgery through three levels of aortic manipulation: full plus tangential (side-biting) aortic clamp application (on-pump surgery; n = 4,269), only tangential aortic clamp application (OPCABG surgery; n = 2,527) or an "aortic no-touch" technique (OPCABG surgery; n = 476). A risk-adjusted logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the likelihood of postoperative stroke with each technique. Preoperative risk factors for stroke from the literature, and those found significant in a univariable model were used. A significant association for postoperative stroke correspondingly increasing with the extent of aortic manipulation was demonstrated by the univariable analysis (CVA incidence respectively increasing from 0.8% to 1.6% to a maximum of 2.2%, p < 0.01). In the logistic regression model, patients who had a full and a tangential aortic clamp applied were 1.8 times more likely to have a stroke versus those without any aortic manipulation (95% confidence interval: 1.15 to 2.74, p < 0.01) and 1.7 times more likely to develop a postoperative stroke than those with only a tangential aortic clamp applied (95% confidence interval: 1.11 to 2.48, p < 0.01). Aortic manipulation during CABG is a contributing mechanism for postoperative stroke. The incidence of postoperative stroke increases with increased levels of aortic manipulation.

  19. The Effect of Adding Comorbidities to Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central-Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection Risk-Adjustment Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Sarah S; Leekha, Surbhi; Magder, Laurence S; Pineles, Lisa; Anderson, Deverick J; Trick, William E; Woeltje, Keith F; Kaye, Keith S; Stafford, Kristen; Thom, Kerri; Lowe, Timothy J; Harris, Anthony D

    2017-09-01

    BACKGROUND Risk adjustment is needed to fairly compare central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates between hospitals. Until 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) methodology adjusted CLABSI rates only by type of intensive care unit (ICU). The 2017 CDC models also adjust for hospital size and medical school affiliation. We hypothesized that risk adjustment would be improved by including patient demographics and comorbidities from electronically available hospital discharge codes. METHODS Using a cohort design across 22 hospitals, we analyzed data from ICU patients admitted between January 2012 and December 2013. Demographics and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) discharge codes were obtained for each patient, and CLABSIs were identified by trained infection preventionists. Models adjusting only for ICU type and for ICU type plus patient case mix were built and compared using discrimination and standardized infection ratio (SIR). Hospitals were ranked by SIR for each model to examine and compare the changes in rank. RESULTS Overall, 85,849 ICU patients were analyzed and 162 (0.2%) developed CLABSI. The significant variables added to the ICU model were coagulopathy, paralysis, renal failure, malnutrition, and age. The C statistics were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) for the ICU-type model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) for the ICU-type plus patient case-mix model. When the hospitals were ranked by adjusted SIRs, 10 hospitals (45%) changed rank when comorbidity was added to the ICU-type model. CONCLUSIONS Our risk-adjustment model for CLABSI using electronically available comorbidities demonstrated better discrimination than did the CDC model. The CDC should strongly consider comorbidity-based risk adjustment to more accurately compare CLABSI rates across hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1019-1024.

  20. Infant Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... After hours (404) 639-2888 Contact Media Infant Mortality Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This ... differences in rates among population groups. About Infant Mortality Infant mortality is the death of an infant ...

  1. Using Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS)-based analysis in the development of regional risk adjustment tools to trend quality in a voluntary trauma system: the experience of the Trauma Foundation of Northeast Ohio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, C; Barnoski, A; Tinnell, C; Fallon, W

    2000-04-01

    Presently, no trauma system exists in Ohio. Since 1993, all hospitals in Cuyahoga County (CUY), northeast Ohio (n = 22) provide data to a trauma registry. In return, each received hospital-specific data, comparison data by trauma care level and a county-wide aggregate summary. This report describes the results of this approach in our region. All cases were entered by paper abstract or electronic download. Interrater reliability audits and z score analysis was performed by using the Major Trauma Outcome Study and the CUY 1994 baseline groups. Risk adjustment of mortality data was performed using statistical modeling and logistic regression (Trauma and Injury Severity Score, Major Trauma Outcome Study, CUY). Trauma severity measures were defined. In 1995, 3,375 patients were entered. Two hundred ninety-one died (8.6%). Severity measures differed by level of trauma care, indicating differences in case mix. Probability of survival was lowest in the Level I centers, highest in the acute care hospitals. Outcomes z scores demonstrated survival differences for all levels. In a functioning trauma system, the most severely injured patients should be cared for at the trauma centers. A low volume at acute care hospitals is desirable. By using Trauma and Injury Severity Score with community-specific constants, NE Ohio is accomplishing these goals. The Level I performance data are an interesting finding compared with the data from the Level II centers in the region

  2. Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. However, extremely high mortality also can be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  3. The Impact of Disability and Social Determinants of Health on Condition-Specific Readmissions beyond Medicare Risk Adjustments: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddings, Jennifer; Reichert, Heidi; Smith, Shawna N; Iwashyna, Theodore J; Langa, Kenneth M; Hofer, Timothy P; McMahon, Laurence F

    2017-01-01

    Readmission rates after pneumonia, heart failure, and acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations are risk-adjusted for age, gender, and medical comorbidities and used to penalize hospitals. To assess the impact of disability and social determinants of health on condition-specific readmissions beyond current risk adjustment. Retrospective cohort study of Medicare patients using 1) linked Health and Retirement Study-Medicare claims data (HRS-CMS) and 2) Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (Florida, Washington) linked with ZIP Code-level measures from the Census American Community Survey (ACS-HCUP). Multilevel logistic regression models assessed the impact of disability and selected social determinants of health on readmission beyond current risk adjustment. Outcomes measured were readmissions ≤30 days after hospitalizations for pneumonia, heart failure, or acute myocardial infarction. HRS-CMS models included disability measures (activities of daily living [ADL] limitations, cognitive impairment, nursing home residence, home healthcare use) and social determinants of health (spouse, children, wealth, Medicaid, race). ACS-HCUP model measures were ZIP Code-percentage of residents ≥65 years of age with ADL difficulty, spouse, income, Medicaid, and patient-level and hospital-level race. For pneumonia, ≥3 ADL difficulties (OR 1.61, CI 1.079-2.391) and prior home healthcare needs (OR 1.68, CI 1.204-2.355) increased readmission in HRS-CMS models (N = 1631); ADL difficulties (OR 1.20, CI 1.063-1.352) and 'other' race (OR 1.14, CI 1.001-1.301) increased readmission in ACS-HCUP models (N = 27,297). For heart failure, children (OR 0.66, CI 0.437-0.984) and wealth (OR 0.53, CI 0.349-0.787) lowered readmission in HRS-CMS models (N = 2068), while black (OR 1.17, CI 1.056-1.292) and 'other' race (OR 1.14, CI 1.036-1.260) increased readmission in ACS-HCUP models (N = 37,612). For acute myocardial infarction, nursing home status

  4. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Improved outcome for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia after risk-adjusted intensive therapy: a single institution experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Nasser, A.; El-Solh, H.; Al-Mahr, M.

    2008-01-01

    Because of need for more comprehensive information on the least toxic and most effective forms of therapy for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), we reviewed our experience in the treatment of children with ALL at King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre (KFSHRC) and King Fahd National Center for Children's Cancer and Research (KFNCCCR) over a period of 18 years with a focus on patient characteristics and outcome. During the period of 1981 to 1988, records of children with ALL were retrospectively reviewed with respect to clinical presentation, laboratory findings, risk factors, stratification, therapy and outcome. The protocols used in treatment included 4 local protocols (KFSH 81, 84, 87 and 90) and subsequently. Children's Cancer Group (CCG) protocols and these were grouped as Era (1981-1992) and Era 2 (1993-1998). Of 509 children with ALL treated during this period, 316 were treated using local protocols and 193 using CCG protocols. Drugs used in Era 1 included a 4-drug induction using etoposid (VP-16) instead of L-asparaginase. Consolidation was based on high dose methotexate (MTX) 1g/m2 and maintenance was based on oral mercaptopurine (6-MP) and MTX with periodic pulses using intravenous teniposide (VM-26), Ara-C, L-asparaginase, adriamycin, prednisone, VP-16 cyclophosphamide .International protocols were introduced in Era 2, which was also marked by intensification of early treatment, a wider selection of cytoreductive agents, and the alternating use of non-cross-resistant pairs of drugs using the post-remission period. The end of induction remission rate improved from 90% in Era 1 to 95% in Era 2, which was of borderline statistical significance (P=0.49). The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) improved from 30.6% in Era 1 to 64.2% in Era 2 (P<.001). Improvement in outcome was achieved without any significant increase in morbidity or mortality, due to improvement in both systemic therapy and supportive care. The most important

  6. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    -1975 revealed a considerable social class gradient in male mortality where university teachers and farmers had a 40% lower mortality and waiters and seamen had an about 100% higher mortality than the average for economically active men. The social class gradient was less steep for women. A similar pattern...

  7. The need for unique risk adjustment for surgical site infections at a high-volume, tertiary care center with inherent high-risk colorectal procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorgun, E; Benlice, C; Hammel, J; Hull, T; Stocchi, L

    2017-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to create a unique risk adjustment model for surgical site infection (SSI) in patients who underwent colorectal surgery (CRS) at the Cleveland Clinic (CC) with inherent high risk factors by using a nationwide database. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried to identify patients who underwent CRS between 2005 and 2010. Initially, CC cases were identified from all NSQIP data according to case identifier and separated from the other NSQIP centers. Demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes were compared. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between SSI and center-related factors. A total of 70,536 patients met the inclusion criteria and underwent CRS, 1090 patients (1.5%) at the CC and 69,446 patients (98.5%) at other centers. Male gender, work-relative value unit, diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease, pouch formation, open surgery, steroid use, and preoperative radiotherapy rates were significantly higher in the CC cases. Overall morbidity and individual postoperative complication rates were found to be similar in the CC and other centers except for the following: organ-space SSI and sepsis rates (higher in the CC cases); and pneumonia and ventilator dependency rates (higher in the other centers). After covariate adjustment, the estimated degree of difference between the CC and other institutions with respect to organ-space SSI was reduced (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.08-1.77). The unique risk adjustment strategy may provide center-specific comprehensive analysis, especially for hospitals that perform inherently high-risk procedures. Higher surgical complexity may be the reason for increased SSI rates in the NSQIP at tertiary care centers.

  8. Lower Mortality in Magnet Hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Matthew D.; Kelly, Lesly A.; Smith, Herbert L.; Wu, Evan S.; Vanak, Jill M.; Aiken, Linda H.

    2014-01-01

    Background Although there is evidence that hospitals recognized for nursing excellence—Magnet hospitals—are successful in attracting and retaining nurses, it is uncertain whether Magnet recognition is associated with better patient outcomes than non-Magnets, and if so why. Objectives To determine whether Magnet hospitals have lower risk-adjusted mortality and failure-to-rescue compared with non-Magnet hospitals, and to determine the most likely explanations. Method and Study Design Analysis of linked patient, nurse, and hospital data on 56 Magnet and 508 non-Magnet hospitals. Logistic regression models were used to estimate differences in the odds of mortality and failure-to-rescue for surgical patients treated in Magnet versus non-Magnet hospitals, and to determine the extent to which differences in outcomes can be explained by nursing after accounting for patient and hospital differences. Results Magnet hospitals had significantly better work environments and higher proportions of nurses with bachelor's degrees and specialty certification. These nursing factors explained much of the Magnet hospital effect on patient outcomes. However, patients treated in Magnet hospitals had 14% lower odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.76–0.98; P = 0.02) and 12% lower odds of failure-to-rescue (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.77–1.01; P = 0.07) while controlling for nursing factors as well as hospital and patient differences. Conclusions The lower mortality we find in Magnet hospitals is largely attributable to measured nursing characteristics but there is a mortality advantage above and beyond what we could measure. Magnet recognition identifies existing quality and stimulates further positive organizational behavior that improves patient outcomes. PMID:24022082

  9. Case-mix and the use of control charts in monitoring mortality rates after coronary artery bypass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is debate about the role of crude mortality rates and case-mix adjusted mortality rates in monitoring the outcomes of treatment. In the context of quality improvement a key purpose of monitoring is to identify special cause variation as this type of variation should be investigated to identify possible causes. This paper investigates agreement between the identification of special cause variation in risk adjusted and observed hospital specific mortality rates after coronary artery bypass grafting in New York hospitals. Methods Coronary artery bypass grafting mortality rates between 1994 and 2003 were obtained from the New York State Department of Health's cardiovascular reports for 41 hospitals. Cross-sectional control charts of crude (observed and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each year. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond the 99.9% probability limits: hospitals showing special cause variation were identified for each year. Longitudinal control charts of crude (observed and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each hospital with data for all ten years (n = 27. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond 99.9% probability limits, two out of three consecutive data points beyond 95% probability limits (two standard deviations from the mean or a run of five consecutive points on one side of the mean. Years showing special cause variation in mortality were identified for each hospital. Cohen's Kappa was calculated for agreement between special causes identified in crude and risk-adjusted control charts. Results In cross sectional analysis the Cohen's Kappa was 0.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.28 to 0.78, indicating moderate agreement between the crude and risk-adjusted control charts with sensitivity 0.4 (95% confidence interval 0.17–0.69 and specificity 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–0.99. In longitudinal analysis, the Cohen's Kappa was 0.61 (95

  10. A review of statistical estimators for risk-adjusted length of stay: analysis of the Australian and new Zealand Intensive Care Adult Patient Data-Base, 2008-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

    2012-05-16

    For the analysis of length-of-stay (LOS) data, which is characteristically right-skewed, a number of statistical estimators have been proposed as alternatives to the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with log dependent variable. Using a cohort of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 2008-2009, 12 different methods were used for estimation of intensive care (ICU) length of stay. These encompassed risk-adjusted regression analysis of firstly: log LOS using OLS, linear mixed model [LMM], treatment effects, skew-normal and skew-t models; and secondly: unmodified (raw) LOS via OLS, generalised linear models [GLMs] with log-link and 4 different distributions [Poisson, gamma, negative binomial and inverse-Gaussian], extended estimating equations [EEE] and a finite mixture model including a gamma distribution. A fixed covariate list and ICU-site clustering with robust variance were utilised for model fitting with split-sample determination (80%) and validation (20%) data sets, and model simulation was undertaken to establish over-fitting (Copas test). Indices of model specification using Bayesian information criterion [BIC: lower values preferred] and residual analysis as well as predictive performance (R2, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), mean absolute error [MAE]) were established for each estimator. The data-set consisted of 111663 patients from 131 ICUs; with mean(SD) age 60.6(18.8) years, 43.0% were female, 40.7% were mechanically ventilated and ICU mortality was 7.8%. ICU length-of-stay was 3.4(5.1) (median 1.8, range (0.17-60)) days and demonstrated marked kurtosis and right skew (29.4 and 4.4 respectively). BIC showed considerable spread, from a maximum of 509801 (OLS-raw scale) to a minimum of 210286 (LMM). R2 ranged from 0.22 (LMM) to 0.17 and the CCC from 0.334 (LMM) to 0.149, with MAE 2.2-2.4. Superior residual behaviour was established for the log-scale estimators

  11. [Susceptibility to strategy of the drug component of the IPHCC+RxGroups classification system in a risk-adjusted morbidity compensation scheme--a conceptional and data-supported analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrend, C; Felder, S; Busse, R

    2007-01-01

    A report commissioned by the German Ministry of Health recommends to the existing scheme for calculating risk-adjusted transfers to sickness funds supplement with the IPHCC+RxGroups method. The method is based on inpatient diagnoses and prescribed drugs as health status measures deduced from prior use. The present study investigates the sickness fund's expected net return from gaming based on the drug component of the risk adjuster. The study explores three possible strategies using the RxGroups method. For the stimulations, insurees are assigned to additional indications or to higher valued RxGroups within the same indication. Then, costs and financial benefits attributable to the altered drug use are estimated and compared with the status quo. The study uses 2000 and 2001 sample data of more than 370,000 insurees of Germany's company-based sickness funds system (BKK). While upgrading increases overall costs, it can be beneficial for the individual sickness funds. Their net return crucially depends on the number of sickness funds gaming the system: the more participating in the game, the smaller is the average net return. Moreover, not participating often is even worse, which in turn points to a prisoner's dilemma. When extending the risk adjustment scheme in social health insurance, the German legislator should take into account the perverse incentives of risk adjusters such as the described prescription drug model.

  12. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  13. Cancer mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, H.

    1986-01-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC), have conducted mortality surveillance on a fixed sample, the Life Span Study (LSS), of 82,000 atomic bomb survivors and 27,000 nonexposed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki since 1950. The results of the most recent analysis of the LSS are summarized

  14. Variations in the Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratios in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun-Jung Lee

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The hospital standardized mortality ratio (HSMR has been widely used because it allows for robust risk adjustment using administrative data and is important for improving the quality of patient care. Methods: All inpatients discharged from hospitals with more than 700 beds (66 hospitals in 2008 were eligible for inclusion. Using the claims data, 29 most responsible diagnosis (MRDx, accounting for 80% of all inpatient deaths among these hospitals, were identified, and inpatients with those MRDx were selected. The final study population included 703 571 inpatients including 27 718 (3.9% of all inpatients in-hospital deaths. Using logistic regression, risk-adjusted models for predicting in-hospital mortality were created for each MRDx. The HSMR of individual hospitals was calculated for each MRDx using the model coefficients. The models included age, gender, income level, urgency of admission, diagnosis codes, disease-specific risk factors, and comorbidities. The Elixhauser comorbidity index was used to adjust for comorbidities. Results: For 26 out of 29 MRDx, the c-statistics of these mortality prediction models were higher than 0.8 indicating excellent discriminative power. The HSMR greatly varied across hospitals and disease groups. The academic status of the hospital was the only factor significantly associated with the HSMR. Conclusions: We found a large variation in HSMR among hospitals; therefore, efforts to reduce these variations including continuous monitoring and regular disclosure of the HSMR are required.

  15. Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily J; Power, Geraldine S; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2016-01-01

    Background Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. Objective To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods—weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)—and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. Methods We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Results Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. Conclusions IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during

  16. Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily J; Smith, Gary B; Power, Geraldine S; Harrison, David A; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2016-11-01

    Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods-weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)-and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during weekday daytimes. Organisational or care differences at

  17. Mortality Implications of Mortality Plateaus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, T. I.; Vaupel, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard...

  18. Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

    2014-09-01

    To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  19. Challenges in assessing hospital-level stroke mortality as a quality measure: comparison of ischemic, intracerebral hemorrhage, and total stroke mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Ying; Holloway, Robert G; Pan, Wenqin; Peterson, Eric D

    2012-06-01

    Public reporting efforts currently profile hospitals based on overall stroke mortality rates, yet the "mix" of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke cases may impact this rate. Using the 2005 to 2006 New York state data, we examined the degree to which hospital stroke mortality rankings varied regarding ischemic versus hemorrhagic versus total stroke. Observed/expected ratio was calculated using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Inpatient Quality Indicator software. The observed/expected ratio and outlier status based on stroke types across hospitals were examined using Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and weighted κ. Overall 30-day stroke mortality rates were 15.2% and varied from 11.3% for ischemic stroke and 37.3% for intracerebral hemorrhage. Hospital risk-adjusted ischemic stroke observed/expected ratio was weakly correlated with its own intracerebral hemorrhage observed/expected ratio (r=0.38). When examining hospital performance group (mortality better, worse, or no different than average), disagreement was observed in 35 of 81 hospitals (κ=0.23). Total stroke mortality observed/expected ratio and rankings were correlated with intracerebral hemorrhage (r=0.61 and κ=0.36) and ischemic stroke (r=0.94 and κ=0.71), but many hospitals still switched classification depending on mortality metrics. However, hospitals treating a higher percent of hemorrhagic stroke did not have a statistically significant higher total stroke mortality rate relative to those treating fewer hemorrhagic strokes. Hospital stroke mortality ratings varied considerably depending on whether ischemic, hemorrhagic, or total stroke mortality rates were used. Public reporting of stroke mortality measures should consider providing risk-adjusted outcome on separate stroke types.

  20. The impact of profitability of hospital admissions on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindrooth, Richard C; Konetzka, R Tamara; Navathe, Amol S; Zhu, Jingsan; Chen, Wei; Volpp, Kevin

    2013-04-01

    Fiscal constraints faced by Medicare are leading to policies designed to reduce expenditures. Evidence of the effect of reduced reimbursement on the mortality of Medicare patients discharged from all major hospital service lines is limited. We modeled risk-adjusted 30-day mortality of patients discharged from 21 hospital service lines as a function of service line profitability, service line time trends, and hospital service line and year-fixed effects. We simulated the effect of alternative revenue-neutral reimbursement policies on mortality. Our sample included all Medicare discharges from PPS-eligible hospitals (1997, 2001, and 2005). The results reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between changes in profitability and mortality. A $0.19 average reduction in profit per $1.00 of costs led to a 0.010-0.020 percentage-point increase in mortality rates (p profitable. Policy simulations that target service line inequities in payment generosity result in lower mortality rates, roughly 700-13,000 fewer deaths nationally. The policy simulations raise questions about the trade-offs implicit in universal reductions in reimbursement. The effect of reduced payment generosity on mortality could be mitigated by targeting highly profitable services only for lower reimbursement. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  1. The Impact of Profitability of Hospital Admissions on Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindrooth, Richard C; Konetzka, R Tamara; Navathe, Amol S; Zhu, Jingsan; Chen, Wei; Volpp, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Background Fiscal constraints faced by Medicare are leading to policies designed to reduce expenditures. Evidence of the effect of reduced reimbursement on the mortality of Medicare patients discharged from all major hospital service lines is limited. Methods We modeled risk-adjusted 30-day mortality of patients discharged from 21 hospital service lines as a function of service line profitability, service line time trends, and hospital service line and year-fixed effects. We simulated the effect of alternative revenue-neutral reimbursement policies on mortality. Our sample included all Medicare discharges from PPS-eligible hospitals (1997, 2001, and 2005). Results The results reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between changes in profitability and mortality. A $0.19 average reduction in profit per $1.00 of costs led to a 0.010–0.020 percentage-point increase in mortality rates (p payment generosity than in service lines that remain profitable. Policy simulations that target service line inequities in payment generosity result in lower mortality rates, roughly 700–13,000 fewer deaths nationally. Conclusions The policy simulations raise questions about the trade-offs implicit in universal reductions in reimbursement. The effect of reduced payment generosity on mortality could be mitigated by targeting highly profitable services only for lower reimbursement. PMID:23346946

  2. Variability in the measurement of hospital-wide mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Wolf, Robert E; Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kirle, Leslie; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2010-12-23

    Several countries use hospital-wide mortality rates to evaluate the quality of hospital care, although the usefulness of this metric has been questioned. Massachusetts policymakers recently requested an assessment of methods to calculate this aggregate mortality metric for use as a measure of hospital quality. The Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy provided four vendors with identical information on 2,528,624 discharges from Massachusetts acute care hospitals from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2007. Vendors applied their risk-adjustment algorithms and provided predicted probabilities of in-hospital death for each discharge and for hospital-level observed and expected mortality rates. We compared the numbers and characteristics of discharges and hospitals included by each of the four methods. We also compared hospitals' standardized mortality ratios and classification of hospitals with mortality rates that were higher or lower than expected, according to each method. The proportions of discharges that were included by each method ranged from 28% to 95%, and the severity of patients' diagnoses varied widely. Because of their discharge-selection criteria, two methods calculated in-hospital mortality rates (4.0% and 5.9%) that were twice the state average (2.1%). Pairwise associations (Pearson correlation coefficients) of discharge-level predicted mortality probabilities ranged from 0.46 to 0.70. Hospital-performance categorizations varied substantially and were sometimes completely discordant. In 2006, a total of 12 of 28 hospitals that had higher-than-expected hospital-wide mortality when classified by one method had lower-than-expected mortality when classified by one or more of the other methods. Four common methods for calculating hospital-wide mortality produced substantially different results. This may have resulted from a lack of standardized national eligibility and exclusion criteria, different statistical methods, or

  3. An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiner Jonathan P

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. Methods A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234, while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562. Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. Results The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster. When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Conclusions Given the

  4. An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-01-18

    Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI) programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234), while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562). Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group) model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster). When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Given the widespread availability of claims data and the superior explanatory

  5. Black/white differences in very low birth weight neonatal mortality rates among New York City hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Elizabeth A; Hebert, Paul; Chatterjee, Samprit; Kleinman, Lawrence C; Chassin, Mark R

    2008-03-01

    We sought to determine whether differences in the hospitals at which black and white infants are born contribute to black/white disparities in very low birth weight neonatal mortality rates in New York City. We performed a population-based cohort study using New York City vital statistics records on all live births and deaths of infants weighing 500 to 1499 g who were born in 45 hospitals between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001 (N = 11 781). We measured very low birth weight risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates for each New York City hospital and assessed differences in the distributions of non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white very low birth weight births among these hospitals. Risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates for very low birth weight infants in New York City hospitals ranged from 9.6 to 27.2 deaths per 1000 births. White very low birth weight infants were more likely to be born in the lowest mortality tertile of hospitals (49%), compared with black very low birth weight infants (29%). We estimated that, if black women delivered in the same hospitals as white women, then black very low birth weight mortality rates would be reduced by 6.7 deaths per 1000 very low birth weight births, removing 34.5% of the black/white disparity in very low birth weight neonatal mortality rates in New York City. Volume of very low birth weight deliveries was modestly associated with very low birth weight mortality rates but explained little of the racial disparity. Black very low birth weight infants more likely to be born in New York City hospitals with higher risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates than were very low birth weight infants, contributing substantially to black-white disparities.

  6. Mortality among discharged psychiatric patients in Florence, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloni, Debora; Miccinesi, Guido; Bencini, Andrea; Conte, Michele; Crocetti, Emanuele; Zappa, Marco; Ferrara, Maurizio

    2006-10-01

    Psychiatric disorders involve an increased risk of mortality. In Italy psychiatric services are community based, and hospitalization is mostly reserved for patients with acute illness. This study examined mortality risk in a cohort of psychiatric inpatients for 16 years after hospital discharge to assess the association of excess mortality from natural or unnatural causes with clinical and sociodemographic variables and time from first admission. At the end of 2002 mortality and cause of death were determined for all patients (N=845) who were admitted during 1987 to the eight psychiatric units active in Florence. The mortality risk of psychiatric patients was compared with that of the general population of the region of Tuscany by calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson multivariate analyses of the observed-to-expected ratio for natural and unnatural deaths were conducted. The SMR for the sample of psychiatric patients was threefold higher than that for the general population (SMR=3.0; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]=2.7-3.4). Individuals younger than 45 years were at higher risk (SMR=11.0; 95 percent CI 8.0-14.9). The SMR for deaths from natural causes was 2.6 (95 percent CI=2.3-2.9), and for deaths from unnatural causes it was 13.0 (95 percent CI=10.1-13.6). For deaths from unnatural causes, the mortality excess was primarily limited to the first years after the first admission. For deaths from natural causes, excess mortality was more stable during the follow-up period. Prevention of deaths from unnatural causes among psychiatric patients may require promotion of earlier follow-up after discharge. Improving prevention and treatment of somatic diseases of psychiatric patients is important to reduce excess mortality from natural causes.

  7. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  8. Hospital Blood Transfusion Patterns During Major Noncardiac Surgery and Surgical Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Alicia; Trivedi, Amal N; Jiang, Lan; Vezeridis, Michael; Henderson, William G; Wu, Wen-Chih

    2015-08-01

    We retrospectively examined intraoperative blood transfusion patterns at US veteran's hospitals through description of national patterns of intraoperative blood transfusion by indication for transfusion in the elderly; assessment of temporal trends in the use of intraoperative blood transfusion; and relationship of institutional use of intraoperative blood transfusion to hospital 30-day risk-adjusted postoperative mortality rates.Limited data exist on the pattern of intraoperative blood transfusion by indication for transfusion at the hospital level, and the relationship between intraoperative transfusion rates and institutional surgical outcomes.Using the Department of Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we assigned 424,015 major noncardiac operations among elderly patients (≥65 years) in 117 veteran's hospitals, from 1997 to 2009, into groups based on indication for intraoperative blood transfusion according to literature and clinical guidelines. We then examined institutional variations and temporal trends in surgical blood use based on these indications, and the relationship between these institutional patterns of transfusion and 30-day postoperative mortality.Intraoperative transfusion occurred in 38,056/424,015 operations (9.0%). Among the 64,390 operations with an indication for transfusion, there was wide variation (median: 49.9%, range: 8.7%-76.2%) in hospital transfusion rates, a yearly decline in transfusion rates (average 1.0%/y), and an inverse relationship between hospital intraoperative transfusion rates and hospital 30-day risk-adjusted mortality (adjusted mortality of 9.8 ± 2.8% vs 8.3 ± 2.1% for lowest and highest tertiles of hospital transfusion rates, respectively, P = 0.02). In contrast, for the 225,782 operations with no indication for transfusion, there was little variation in hospital transfusion rates (median 0.7%, range: 0%-3.4%), no meaningful temporal change in transfusion (average 0.0%/y), and

  9. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  10. Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

    2018-01-01

    Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  11. Chapter 5 - Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2014-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. Extremely high mortality, however, can also be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  12. Mortality in Postmenopausal Women by Sexual Orientation and Veteran Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehavot, Keren; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Weitlauf, Julie; Kimerling, Rachel; Wallace, Robert B.; Sadler, Anne G.; Woods, Nancy Fugate; Shipherd, Jillian C.; Mattocks, Kristin; Cirillo, Dominic J.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Simpson, Tracy L.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Purpose of the Study: To examine differences in all-cause and cause-specific mortality by sexual orientation and Veteran status among older women. Design and Methods: Data were from the Women’s Health Initiative, with demographic characteristics, psychosocial factors, and health behaviors assessed at baseline (1993–1998) and mortality status from all available data sources through 2014. Women with baseline information on lifetime sexual behavior and Veteran status were included in the analyses ( N = 137,639; 1.4% sexual minority, 2.5% Veteran). The four comparison groups included sexual minority Veterans, sexual minority non-Veterans, heterosexual Veterans, and heterosexual non-Veterans. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate mortality risk adjusted for demographic, psychosocial, and health variables. Results: Sexual minority women had greater all-cause mortality risk than heterosexual women regardless of Veteran status (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.36) and women Veterans had greater all-cause mortality risk than non-Veterans regardless of sexual orientation (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.06–1.22), but the interaction between sexual orientation and Veteran status was not significant. Sexual minority women were also at greater risk than heterosexual women for cancer-specific mortality, with effects stronger among Veterans compared to non-Veterans (sexual minority × Veteran HR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.01–2.85). Implications: Postmenopausal sexual minority women in the United States, regardless of Veteran status, may be at higher risk for earlier death compared to heterosexuals. Sexual minority women Veterans may have higher risk of cancer-specific mortality compared to their heterosexual counterparts. Examining social determinants of longevity may be an important step to understanding and reducing these disparities. PMID:26768389

  13. Mortality and Clostridium difficile infection in an Australian setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Brett G; Gardner, Anne; Hiller, Janet E

    2013-10-01

    To quantify the risk of death associated with Clostridium difficile infection, in an Australian tertiary hospital. Two reviews examining Clostridium difficile infection and mortality indicate that Clostridium difficile infection is associated with increased mortality in hospitalized patients. Studies investigating the mortality of Clostridium difficile infection in settings outside of Europe and North America are required, so that the epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infection in these regions can be understood and appropriate prevention strategies made. An observational non-concurrent cohort study design was used. Data from all persons who had (exposed) and a matched sample of persons who did not have Clostridium difficile infection, for the calendar years 2007-2010, were analysed. The risk of dying within 30, 60, 90 and 180 days was compared using the two groups. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and conditional logistic regression models were applied to the data to examine time to death and mortality risk adjusted for comorbidities using the Charlson Comorbidity Index. One hundred and fifty-eight cases of infection were identified. A statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality was identified between exposed and non-exposed groups at 60 and 180 days. In a conditional regression model, mortality in the exposed group was significantly higher at 180 days. In this Australian study, Clostridium difficile infection was associated with increased mortality. In doing so, it highlights the need for nurses to immediately instigate contact precautions for persons suspected of having Clostridium difficile infection and to facilitate a timely faecal collection for testing. Our findings support ongoing surveillance of Clostridium difficile infection and associated prevention and control activities. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Trends in Red Blood Cell Transfusion and 30-Day Mortality among Hospitalized Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubinian, Nareg H; Escobar, Gabriel J; Liu, Vincent; Swain, Bix E; Gardner, Marla N; Kipnis, Patricia; Triulzi, Darrell J; Gottschall, Jerome L; Wu, Yan; Carson, Jeffrey L; Kleinman, Steven H; Murphy, Edward L

    2014-01-01

    Background Blood conservation strategies have been shown to be effective in decreasing red blood cell (RBC) utilization in specific patient groups. However, few data exist describing the extent of RBC transfusion reduction or their impact on transfusion practice and mortality in a diverse inpatient population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using comprehensive electronic medical record data from 21 medical facilities in Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We examined unadjusted and risk-adjusted RBC transfusion and 30-day mortality coincident with implementation of RBC conservation strategies. Findings The inpatient study cohort included 391,958 patients who experienced 685,753 hospitalizations. From 2009 to 2013, the incidence of RBC transfusion decreased from 14.0% to 10.8% of hospitalizations; this change coincided with a decline in pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels from 8.1 to 7.6 g/dL. Decreased RBC utilization affected broad groups of admission diagnoses and was most pronounced in patients with a nadir hemoglobin level between 8 and 9 g/dL (n=73,057; 50.8% to 19.3%). During the study period, the standard deviation of risk adjusted RBC transfusion incidence across hospitals decreased by 44% (p blood conservation strategies, RBC transfusion incidence and pre-transfusion hemoglobin levels decreased broadly across medical and surgical patients. Variation in RBC transfusion incidence across hospitals decreased from 2010 to 2013. Consistent with clinical trial data, more restrictive transfusion practice did not appear to impact 30-day mortality. PMID:25135770

  15. Favorable Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage: Trends in Mortality and Plan Exits Among Nursing Home Beneficiaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Elizabeth M.; Trivedi, Amal N.; Mor, Vincent; Jung, Hye-Young; Rahman, Momotazur

    2016-01-01

    The 2003 Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans and instituted a new risk-adjustment payment model to reduce plans' incentives to enroll healthier Medicare beneficiaries and avoid those with higher costs. Whether the MMA reduced risk selection remains debatable. This study uses mortality differences, nursing home utilization, and switch rates to assess whether the MMA successfully decreased risk selection from 2000 to 2012. We found no decrease in the mortality difference or adjusted difference in nursing home use between plan beneficiaries pre- and post the MMA. Among beneficiaries with nursing home use, disenrollment from Medicare Advantage plans declined from 20% to 12%, but it remained 6 times higher than the switch rate from traditional Medicare to Medicare Advantage. These findings suggest that the MMA was not associated with reductions in favorable risk selection, as measured by mortality, nursing home use, and switch rates. PMID:27516452

  16. Mortality table construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawanir

    2015-12-01

    Mortality tables play important role in actuarial studies such as life annuities, premium determination, premium reserve, valuation pension plan, pension funding. Some known mortality tables are CSO mortality table, Indonesian Mortality Table, Bowers mortality table, Japan Mortality table. For actuary applications some tables are constructed with different environment such as single decrement, double decrement, and multiple decrement. There exist two approaches in mortality table construction : mathematics approach and statistical approach. Distribution model and estimation theory are the statistical concepts that are used in mortality table construction. This article aims to discuss the statistical approach in mortality table construction. The distributional assumptions are uniform death distribution (UDD) and constant force (exponential). Moment estimation and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the mortality parameter. Moment estimation methods are easier to manipulate compared to maximum likelihood estimation (mle). However, the complete mortality data are not used in moment estimation method. Maximum likelihood exploited all available information in mortality estimation. Some mle equations are complicated and solved using numerical methods. The article focus on single decrement estimation using moment and maximum likelihood estimation. Some extension to double decrement will introduced. Simple dataset will be used to illustrated the mortality estimation, and mortality table.

  17. Timing of low tidal volume ventilation and intensive care unit mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome. A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needham, Dale M; Yang, Ting; Dinglas, Victor D; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A; Shanholtz, Carl; Sevransky, Jonathan E; Brower, Roy G; Pronovost, Peter J; Colantuoni, Elizabeth

    2015-01-15

    Reducing tidal volume decreases mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, the effect of the timing of low tidal volume ventilation is not well understood. To evaluate the association of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality with initial tidal volume and with tidal volume change over time. Multivariable, time-varying Cox regression analysis of a multisite, prospective study of 482 patients with ARDS with 11,558 twice-daily tidal volume assessments (evaluated in milliliter per kilogram of predicted body weight [PBW]) and daily assessment of other mortality predictors. An increase of 1 ml/kg PBW in initial tidal volume was associated with a 23% increase in ICU mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.44; P = 0.008). Moreover, a 1 ml/kg PBW increase in subsequent tidal volumes compared with the initial tidal volume was associated with a 15% increase in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.29; P = 0.019). Compared with a prototypical patient receiving 8 days with a tidal volume of 6 ml/kg PBW, the absolute increase in ICU mortality (95% CI) of receiving 10 and 8 ml/kg PBW, respectively, across all 8 days was 7.2% (3.0-13.0%) and 2.7% (1.2-4.6%). In scenarios with variation in tidal volume over the 8-day period, mortality was higher when a larger volume was used earlier. Higher tidal volumes shortly after ARDS onset were associated with a greater risk of ICU mortality compared with subsequent tidal volumes. Timely recognition of ARDS and adherence to low tidal volume ventilation is important for reducing mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00300248).

  18. Telomere Length and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimura, Masayuki; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Gardner, Jeffrey P

    2008-01-01

    Leukocyte telomere length, representing the mean length of all telomeres in leukocytes, is ostensibly a bioindicator of human aging. The authors hypothesized that shorter telomeres might forecast imminent mortality in elderly people better than leukocyte telomere length. They performed mortality...

  19. Excess mortality in hyperthyroidism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelm Brandt Kristensen, Frans; Pedersen, Dorthe Almind; Christensen, Kaare

    2012-01-01

    Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding.......Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding....

  20. Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Szabo, Laszlo [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies C. Inca Garcilaso, 3. E-41092 Sevilla (Spain)

    2010-07-15

    Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment. (author)

  1. Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf; Szabo, Laszlo

    2010-01-01

    Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment.

  2. ACA Risk Adjustment - Overview, Context, and Challenges

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid Research Review includes three articles describing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk...

  3. Comparison of mortality following hospitalisation for isolated head injury in England and Wales, and Victoria, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda J Gabbe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI remains a leading cause of death and disability. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE guidelines recommend transfer of severe TBI cases to neurosurgical centres, irrespective of the need for neurosurgery. This observational study investigated the risk-adjusted mortality of isolated TBI admissions in England/Wales, and Victoria, Australia, and the impact of neurosurgical centre management on outcomes. METHODS: Isolated TBI admissions (>15 years, July 2005-June 2006 were extracted from the hospital discharge datasets for both jurisdictions. Severe isolated TBI (AIS severity >3 admissions were provided by the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN and Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR for England/Wales, and Victoria, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare risk-adjusted mortality between jurisdictions. FINDINGS: Mortality was 12% (749/6256 in England/Wales and 9% (91/1048 in Victoria for isolated TBI admissions. Adjusted odds of death in England/Wales were higher compared to Victoria overall (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5, and for cases <65 years (OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.51, 3.69. For severe TBI, mortality was 23% (133/575 for TARN and 20% (68/346 for VSTR, with 72% of TARN and 86% of VSTR cases managed at a neurosurgical centre. The adjusted mortality odds for severe TBI cases in TARN were higher compared to the VSTR (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.19, but particularly for cases <65 years (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.90. Neurosurgical centre management modified the effect overall (OR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.74 and for cases <65 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.03. CONCLUSION: The risk-adjusted odds of mortality for all isolated TBI admissions, and severe TBI cases, were higher in England/Wales when compared to Victoria. The lower percentage of cases managed at neurosurgical centres in England and Wales was an explanatory factor, supporting the changes made to the NICE

  4. A cohort study: temporal trends in prevalence of antecedents, comorbidities and mortality in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians with first heart failure hospitalization, 2000-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Tiew-Hwa Katherine; Katzenellenbogen, Judith M; Hung, Joseph; Knuiman, Matthew; Sanfilippo, Frank M; Geelhoed, Elizabeth; Bessarab, Dawn; Hobbs, Michael; Thompson, Sandra C

    2015-08-12

    Little is known about trends in risk factors and mortality for Aboriginal Australians with heart failure (HF). This population-based study evaluated trends in prevalence of risk factors, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality following first HF hospitalization among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Western Australians in the decade 2000-2009. Linked-health data were used to identify patients (20-84 years), with a first-ever HF hospitalization. Trends in demographics, comorbidities, interventions and risk factors were evaluated. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to test and compare trends over time in 30-day and 1-year mortality. Of 17,379 HF patients, 1,013 (5.8%) were Aboriginal. Compared with 2000-2002, the prevalence (as history) of myocardial infarction and hypertension increased more markedly in 2006-2009 in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) patients, while diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal patients. Risk factor trends, including the Charlson comorbidity index, increased over time in younger Aboriginal patients. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality did not change over the decade in either group. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) was non-significantly higher in Aboriginal patients in 2006-2008 compared with 2000-2002 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44; 95% CI 0.85-2.41; p-trend = 0.47) whereas it decreased in non-Aboriginal patients (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78-0.97; p-trend = 0.01). Between 2000 and 2009, the prevalence of HF antecedents increased and remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) HF patients. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality did not improve in Aboriginal patients over the period in contrast with non-Aboriginal patients. These findings highlight the need for better prevention and post-HF care in Aboriginal Australians.

  5. Effects of nurse staffing, work environments, and education on patient mortality: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Eunhee; Sloane, Douglas M; Kim, Eun-Young; Kim, Sera; Choi, Miyoung; Yoo, Il Young; Lee, Hye Sun; Aiken, Linda H

    2015-02-01

    While considerable evidence has been produced showing a link between nursing characteristics and patient outcomes in the U.S. and Europe, little is known about whether similar associations are present in South Korea. To examine the effects of nurse staffing, work environment, and education on patient mortality. This study linked hospital facility data with staff nurse survey data (N=1024) and surgical patient discharge data (N=76,036) from 14 high-technology teaching hospitals with 700 or more beds in South Korea, collected between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2008. Logistic regression models that corrected for the clustering of patients in hospitals were used to estimate the effects of the three nursing characteristics on risk-adjusted patient mortality within 30 days of admission. Risk-adjusted models reveal that nurse staffing, nurse work environments, and nurse education were significantly associated with patient mortality (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10; OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.31-0.88; and OR 0.91, CI 0.83-0.99; respectively). These odds ratios imply that each additional patient per nurse is associated with an 5% increase in the odds of patient death within 30 days of admission, that the odds of patient mortality are nearly 50% lower in the hospitals with better nurse work environments than in hospitals with mixed or poor nurse work environments, and that each 10% increase in nurses having Bachelor of Science in Nursing Degree is associated with a 9% decrease in patient deaths. Nurse staffing, nurse work environments, and percentages of nurses having Bachelor of Science in Nursing Degree in South Korea are associated with patient mortality. Improving hospital nurse staffing and work environments and increasing the percentages of nurses having Bachelor of Science in Nursing Degree would help reduce the number of preventable in-hospital deaths. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Loneliness, health and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, J; Larsen, E R; Mattisson, C

    2017-01-01

    Aims.: Literature suggests an association between loneliness and mortality for both males and females. Yet, the linkage of loneliness to mortality is not thoroughly examined, and need to be replicated with a long follow-up time. This study assessed the association between loneliness and mortality...... not been previously reported. If replicated, our results indicate that loneliness may have differential physical implications in some subgroups. Future studies are needed to further investigate the influence of gender on the relationship....

  7. Use of quinine and mortality-risk in patients with heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjesing, Anne; Gislason, Gunnar H.; Christensen, Stefan B.

    2015-01-01

    included, with 14 510 patients (11%) using quinine at some point. During a median time of follow-up of 989 days (interquartile range 350-2004) 88 878 patients (66%) died. Patients receiving quinine had slightly increased mortality risk, adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI......PURPOSE: Leg cramps are common in patients with heart failure. Quinine is frequently prescribed in low doses to these patients, but safety of this practice is unknown. We studied the outcomes associated with use of quinine in a nationwide cohort of patients with heart failure. METHODS: Through...... individual-level-linkage of Danish national registries, we identified patients discharged from first-time hospitalization for heart failure in 1997-2010. We estimated the risk of mortality associated with quinine treatment by time-dependent Poisson regression models. RESULTS: A total of 135 529 patients were...

  8. Under-Five Mortality

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two thirds between. 1990 and 2015. For Zambia, this means ... 1Institute of Economic and Social Research, University of Zambia ... live births;. 2. Neonatal mortality: Deaths during the first 28 days of life. 3. Post-neonatal ... children born/woman) and rapid (3%) population growth on living ...

  9. Mortality in ankylosing spondylitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exarchou, Sofia; Lie, Elisabeth; Lindström, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Information on mortality in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is scarce. Our study therefore aimed to assess: (1) mortality in AS versus the general population, and (2) predictors of death in the AS population. METHODS: Nationwide cohorts of patients with AS diagnosed at rheumatology or int...

  10. Mortality associated with phaeochromocytoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prejbisz, A; Lenders, J W M; Eisenhofer, G; Januszewicz, A

    2013-02-01

    Two major categories of mortality are distinguished in patients with phaeochromocytoma. First, the effects of excessive circulating catecholamines may result in lethal complications if the disease is not diagnosed and/or treated timely. The second category of mortality is related to development of metastatic disease or other neoplasms. Improvements in disease recognition and diagnosis over the past few decades have reduced mortality from undiagnosed tumours. Nevertheless, many tumours remain unrecognised until they cause severe complications. Death resulting from unrecognised or untreated tumour is caused by cardiovascular complications. There are also numerous drugs and diagnostic or therapeutic manipulations that can cause fatal complications in patients with phaeochromocytoma. Previously it has been reported that operative mortality was as high as 50% in unprepared patients with phaeochromocytoma who were operated and in whom the diagnosis was unsuspected. Today mortality during surgery in medically prepared patients with the tumour is minimal. Phaeochromocytomas may be malignant at presentation or metastases may develop later, but both scenarios are associated with a potentially lethal outcome. Patients with phaeochromocytoma run an increased risk to develop other tumours, resulting in an increased mortality risk compared to the general population. Phaeochromocytoma during pregnancy represents a condition with potentially high maternal and foetal mortality. However, today phaeochromocytoma in pregnancy is recognised earlier and in conjunction with improved medical management, maternal mortality has decreased to less than 5%. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  11. Maternal Mortality in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeva, Sonia; Archer, Natalie P; Ruggiero, Karen; Hall, Manda; Stagg, Julie; Interis, Evelyn Coronado; Vega, Rachelle; Delgado, Evelyn; Hellerstedt, John; Hankins, Gary; Hollier, Lisa M

    2017-05-01

    A commentary on maternal mortality in Texas is provided in response to a 2016 article in Obstetrics & Gynecology by MacDorman et al. While the Texas Department of State Health Services and the Texas Maternal Mortality and Morbidity Task Force agree that maternal mortality increased sharply from 2010 to 2011, the percentage change or the magnitude of the increase in the maternal mortality rate in Texas differs depending on the statistical methods used to compute and display it. Methodologic challenges in identifying maternal death are also discussed, as well as risk factors and causes of maternal death in Texas. Finally, several state efforts currently underway to address maternal mortality in Texas are described. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  12. Gallstone disease and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shabanzadeh, Daniel Mønsted; Sørensen, Lars Tue; Jørgensen, Torben

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The objective of this cohort study was to determine whether subjects with gallstone disease identified by screening of a general population had increased overall mortality when compared to gallstone-free participants and to explore causes of death. METHODS: The study population (N...... built. RESULTS: Gallstone disease was present in 10%. Mortality was 46% during median 24.7 years of follow-up with 1% lost. Overall mortality and death from cardiovascular diseases were significantly associated to gallstone disease. Death from unknown causes was significantly associated to gallstone...... disease and death from cancer and gastrointestinal disease was not associated. No differences in mortality for ultrasound-proven gallstones or cholecystectomy were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Gallstone disease is associated with increased overall mortality and to death from cardiovascular disease. Gallstones...

  13. Environmental barriers, person-environment fit and mortality among community-dwelling very old people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Törmäkangas, Timo; Rantanen, Taina; Haak, Maria; Iwarsson, Susanne

    2013-08-28

    Environmental barriers are associated with disability-related outcomes in older people but little is known of the effect of environmental barriers on mortality. The aim of this study was to examine whether objectively measured barriers in the outdoor, entrance and indoor environments are associated with mortality among community-dwelling 80- to 89-year-old single-living people. This longitudinal study is based on a sample of 397 people who were single-living in ordinary housing in Sweden. Participants were interviewed during 2002-2003, and 393 were followed up for mortality until May 15, 2012.Environmental barriers and functional limitations were assessed with the Housing Enabler instrument, which is intended for objective assessments of Person-Environment (P-E) fit problems in housing and the immediate outdoor environment. Mortality data were gathered from the public national register. Cox regression models were used for the analyses. A total of 264 (67%) participants died during follow-up. Functional limitations increased mortality risk. Among the specific environmental barriers that generate the most P-E fit problems, lack of handrails in stairs at entrances was associated with the highest mortality risk (adjusted RR 1.55, 95% CI 1.14-2.10), whereas the total number of environmental barriers at entrances and outdoors was not associated with mortality. A higher number of environmental barriers indoors showed a slight protective effect against mortality even after adjustment for functional limitations (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-1.00). Specific environmental problems may increase mortality risk among very-old single-living people. However, the association may be confounded by individuals' health status which is difficult to fully control for. Further studies are called for.

  14. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  15. Benchmarking statewide trauma mortality using Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's patient safety indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Darwin; McKenney, Mark; Norwood, Scott; Kurek, Stanley; Kimbrell, Brian; Liu, Huazhi; Ziglar, Michele; Hurst, James

    2015-09-01

    Improving clinical outcomes of trauma patients is a challenging problem at a statewide level, particularly if data from the state's registry are not publicly available. Promotion of optimal care throughout the state is not possible unless clinical benchmarks are available for comparison. Using publicly available administrative data from the State Department of Health and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) patient safety indicators (PSIs), we sought to create a statewide method for benchmarking trauma mortality and at the same time also identifying a pattern of unique complications that have an independent influence on mortality. Data for this study were obtained from State of Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Adult trauma patients were identified as having International Classification of Disease ninth edition codes defined by the state. Multivariate logistic regression was used to create a predictive inpatient expected mortality model. The expected value of PSIs was created using the multivariate model and their beta coefficients provided by the AHRQ. Case-mix adjusted mortality results were reported as observed to expected (O/E) ratios to examine mortality, PSIs, failure to prevent complications, and failure to rescue from death. There were 50,596 trauma patients evaluated during the study period. The overall fit of the expected mortality model was very strong at a c-statistic of 0.93. Twelve of 25 trauma centers had O/E ratios benchmarking method that screens at risk trauma centers in the state for higher than expected mortality. Stratifying mortality based on failure to prevent PSIs may identify areas of needed improvement at a statewide level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

    2018-01-01

    Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

  17. Turbine related fish mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eicher, G.J.

    1993-01-01

    A literature review was conducted to assess the factors affecting turbine-related fish mortality. The mechanics of fish passage through a turbine is outlined, and various turbine related stresses are described, including pressure and shear effects, hydraulic head, turbine efficiency, and tailwater level. The methodologies used in determining the effects of fish passage are evaluated. The necessity of adequate controls in each test is noted. It is concluded that mortality is the result of several factors such as hardiness of study fish, fish size, concentrations of dissolved gases, and amounts of cavitation. Comparisons between Francis and Kaplan turbines indicate little difference in percent mortality. 27 refs., 5 figs

  18. Mortality after shoulder arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Alexander; Rasmussen, Jeppe Vejlgaard; Olsen, Bo Sanderhoff

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The primary aim was to quantify the 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates after primary shoulder replacement. The secondary aims were to assess the association between mortality and diagnoses and to compare the mortality rate with that of the general population. METHODS: The study...... included 5853 primary operations reported to the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Registry between 2006 and 2012. Information about deaths was obtained from the Danish Cause of Death Register and the Danish Civil Registration System. Age- and sex-adjusted control groups were retrieved from Statistics Denmark...

  19. Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

    2018-03-01

    Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was <7.5% (sensitivity and specificity 88.99% and 81.4% respectively). Compared with group achieving lactate clearance target, group not achieving lactate clearance target had to increase early mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 13.42; 95%CI 7.19-25.07). In conclusion, the best lactate clearance cut off as anearly mortality predictor in sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

  20. Coral Reefs: Beyond Mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Sheppard

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The scale of the collapse of coral reef communities in 1998 following a warming episode (Wilkinson, 2000 was unprecedented, and took many people by surprise. The Indian Ocean was the worst affected with a coral mortality over 75% in many areas such as the Chagos Archipelago (Sheppard, 1999, Seychelles (Spencer et al., 2000 and Maldives (McClanahan, 2000. Several other locations were affected at least as much, with mortality reaching 100% (to the nearest whole number; this is being compiled by various authors (e.g., CORDIO, in press. For example, in the Arabian Gulf, coral mortality is almost total across many large areas of shallow water (Sheppard, unpublished; D. George and D. John, personal communication. The mortality is patchy of course, depending on currents, location inside or outside lagoons, etc., but it is now possible to swim for over 200 m and see not one remaining living coral or soft coral on some previously rich reefs.

  1. Reducing infant mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, T R

    1994-01-01

    Public health and social policies at the population level (e.g., oral rehydration therapy and immunization) are responsible for the major reduction in infant mortality worldwide. The gap in infant mortality rates between developing and developed regions is much less than that in maternal mortality rates. This indicates that maternal and child health (MCH) programs and women's health care should be combined. Since 1950, 66% of infant deaths occur in the 1st 28 days, indicating adverse prenatal and intrapartum events (e.g., congenital malformation and birth injuries). Infection, especially pneumonia and diarrhea, and low birth weight are the major causes of infant mortality worldwide. An estimated US$25 billion are needed to secure the resources to control major childhood diseases, reduce malnutrition 50%, reduce child deaths by 4 million/year, provide potable water and sanitation to all communities, provide basic education, and make family planning available to all. This cost for saving children's lives is lower than current expenditures for cigarettes (US$50 billion in Europe/year). Vitamin A supplementation, breast feeding, and prenatal diagnosis of congenital malformations are low-cost strategies that can significantly affect infant well-being and reduce child mortality in many developing countries. The US has a higher infant mortality rate than have other developed countries. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the US National Institutes of Health are focusing on prematurity, low birth weight, multiple pregnancy, violence, alcohol abuse, and poverty to reduce infant mortality. Obstetricians should be important members of MCH teams, which also include traditional birth attendants, community health workers, nurses, midwives, and medical officers. We have the financial resources to allocate resources to improve MCH care and to reduce infant mortality.

  2. Performance of hospitals according to the ESC ACCA quality indicators and 30-day mortality for acute myocardial infarction:national cohort study using the United Kingdom Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) register

    OpenAIRE

    Bebb, Owen; Hall, Marlous; Fox, Keith A A; Dondo, Tatendashe B; Timmis, Adam; Bueno, Hector; Schiele, François; Gale, Chris P

    2017-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the application of the European Society of Cardiology Acute Cardiovascular Care Association quality indicators (QI) for acute myocardial infarction for the study of hospital performance and 30-day mortality.Methods and results: National cohort study (n = 118,075 patients, n = 211 hospitals, MINAP registry), 2012-13. Overall, 16 of the 20 QIs could be calculated. Eleven QIs had a significant inverse association with GRACE risk adjusted 30-day mortality (all P < 0.005). ...

  3. Mortality in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitiris, Nikolas; Mohanraj, Rajiv; Norrie, John; Brodie, Martin J

    2007-05-01

    All studies report an increased mortality risk for people with epilepsy compared with the general population. Population-based studies have demonstrated that the increased mortality is often related to the cause of the epilepsy. Common etiologies include neoplasia, cerebrovascular disease, and pneumonia. Deaths in selected cohorts, such as sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), status epilepticus (SE), suicides, and accidents are more frequently epilepsy-related. SUDEP is a particular cause for concern in younger people, and whether and when SUDEP should be discussed with patients with epilepsy remain problematic issues. Risk factors for SUDEP include generalized tonic-clonic seizures, increased seizure frequency, concomitant learning disability, and antiepileptic drug polypharmacy. The overall incidence of SE may be increasing, although case fatality rates remain constant. Mortality is frequently secondary to acute symptomatic disorders. Poor compliance with treatment in patients with epilepsy accounts for a small proportion of deaths from SE. The incidence of suicide is increased, particularly for individuals with epilepsy and comorbid psychiatric conditions. Late mortality figures in patients undergoing epilepsy surgery vary and are likely to reflect differences in case selection. Future studies of mortality should be prospective and follow agreed guidelines to better quantify risk and causation in individual populations.

  4. Neonatal mortality in Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolley, F R; Schuman, K L; Lyon, J L

    1982-09-01

    A cohort study of neonatal mortality (N = 106) in white singleton births (N = 14,486) in Utah for January-June 1975 was conducted. Using membership and activity in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormon) as a proxy for parental health practices, i.e., tobacco and alcohol abstinence, differential neonatal mortality rates were calculated. The influence of potential confounding factors was evaluated. Low activity LDS members were found to have an excess risk of neonatal death five times greater than high activity LDS, with an upper bound of a two-sided 95% confidence interval of 7.9. The data consistently indicate a lower neonatal mortality rate for active LDS members. Non-LDS were found to have a lower rate than either medium or low activity LDS.

  5. Occupational Mortality, Background on

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2016-01-01

    in England and Wales from 1851 to 1979–1983, and these studies have provided key data on social inequalities in health. Death certificate studies have been used for identification of occupational groups with high excess risks from specific diseases. Follow-up studies require linkage of individual records......The study of occupational mortality involves the systematic tabulation of mortality by occupational or socioeconomic groups. Three main methods are used to conduct these studies: cross-sectional studies, death certificate studies, and follow-up studies. Cross-sectional studies were undertaken...

  6. Is Annual Volume Enough? The Role of Experience and Specialization on Inpatient Mortality After Hepatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Daniel A; Bababekov, Yanik J; Mehtsun, Winta T; Stapleton, Sahael M; Warshaw, Andrew L; Lillemoe, Keith D; Chang, David C; Vagefi, Parsia A

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the effect of subspecialty practice and experience on the relationship between annual volume and inpatient mortality after hepatic resection. The impact of annual surgical volume on postoperative outcomes has been extensively examined. However, the impact of cumulative surgeon experience and specialty training on this relationship warrants investigation. The New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System inpatient database was queried for patients' ≥18 years who underwent wedge hepatectomy or lobectomy from 2000 to 2014. Primary exposures included annual surgeon volume, surgeon experience (early vs late career), and surgical specialization-categorized as general surgery (GS), surgical oncology (SO), and transplant (TS). Primary endpoint was inpatient mortality. Hierarchical logistic regression was performed accounting for correlation at the level of the surgeon and the hospital, and adjusting for patient demographics, comorbidities, presence of cirrhosis, and annual surgical hospital volume. A total of 13,467 cases were analyzed. Overall inpatient mortality was 2.35%. On unadjusted analysis, late career surgeons had a mortality rate of 2.62% versus 1.97% for early career surgeons. GS had a mortality rate of 2.98% compared with 1.68% for SO and 2.67% for TS. Once risk-adjusted, annual volume was associated with reduced mortality only among early-career surgeons (odds ratio 0.82, P = 0.001) and general surgeons (odds ratio 0.65, P = 0.002). No volume effect was seen among late-career or specialty-trained surgeons. Annual volume alone likely contributes only a partial assessment of the volume-outcome relationship. In patients undergoing hepatic resection, increased annual volume did not confer a mortality benefit on subspecialty surgeons or late career surgeons.

  7. The effects of price competition and reduced subsidies for uncompensated care on hospital mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpp, Kevin G M; Ketcham, Jonathan D; Epstein, Andrew J; Williams, Sankey V

    2005-08-01

    To determine whether hospital mortality rates changed in New Jersey after implementation of a law that changed hospital payment from a regulated system based on hospital cost to price competition with reduced subsidies for uncompensated care and whether changes in mortality rates were affected by hospital market conditions. State discharge data for New Jersey and New York from 1990 to 1996. Study Design. We used an interrupted time series design to compare risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates between states over time. We compared the effect sizes in markets with different levels of health maintenance organization penetration and hospital market concentration and tested the sensitivity of our results to different approaches to defining hospital markets. The study sample included all patients under age 65 admitted to New Jersey or New York hospitals with stroke, hip fracture, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, congestive heart failure, hip fracture, or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Mortality among patients in New Jersey improved less than in New York by 0.4 percentage points among the insured (p=.07) and 0.5 percentage points among the uninsured (p=.37). There was a relative increase in mortality for patients with AMI, congestive heart failure, and stroke, especially for uninsured patients with these conditions, but not for patients with the other four conditions we studied. Less competitive hospital markets were significantly associated with a relative decrease in mortality among insured patients. Market-based reforms may adversely affect mortality for some conditions but it appears the effects are not universal. Insured patients in less competitive markets fared better in the transition to price competition.

  8. Affine stochastic mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schrager, D.F.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new model for stochastic mortality. The model is based on the literature on affine term structure models. It satisfies three important requirements for application in practice: analytical tractibility, clear interpretation of the factors and compatibility with financial option pricing

  9. Mortality and GH deficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochholm, Kirstine; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Laursen, Torben

    2007-01-01

    into childhood onset (CO) and adult onset (AO), discriminated by an age cutoff below or above 18 years at onset of GHD. METHOD: Data on death were identified in national registries. Sex- and cause-specific mortalities were identified in CO and AO GHD when compared with controls. RESULTS: Mortality was increased......OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mortality in Denmark in patients suffering from GH deficiency (GHD). DESIGN: Mortality was analyzed in 1794 GHD patients and 8014 controls matched on age and gender. All records in GHD patients were studied and additional morbidity noted. Patients were divided...... in CO and AO GHD in both genders, when compared with controls. The hazard ratio (HR) for CO males was 8.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.5-15.1) and for females 9.4 (CI 4.6-19.4). For AO males, HR was 1.9 (CI 1.7-2.2) and for females 3.4 (CI 2.9-4.0). We found a significantly higher HR in AO females...

  10. Caesarean section and mortality

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hawkins JL, Gibbs CP, Orleans M, et al. Obstetric anesthesia work force survey, versus 1992. Anesthesiology. 1981;1997(87):135–43. 2. Bert CJ, Atrash HK, Koonin KM, et al. Pregnacy related mortality in the. United States, 1987–1990. Obstet Gynecol. 1996;88:161–7. Received: 10-08-2015 Accepted: 14-08-2015.

  11. Stillbirth and Infant Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nøhr, Ellen Aagaard

    2012-01-01

    mechanisms behind these associations remain largely unknown. Although maternal obesity is associated with a wide range of complications in the mother and neonate that may impair fetal and infant survival, the increased risk of stillbirth and infant mortality is virtually unchanged when accounting...

  12. Sex differentials in mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1970-06-01

    The questions leing considered are whether a higher female than male mortality rate exists in Ceylon, India, and Pakistan, and whether this sex differential can account for the observed high male sex ratios. There is a choice between explaining the recorded masculinity of the Indian population by assuming that the subordinate position of women caused their omission from the census or that it caused their unrecorded death in childhood. The 1951 census report of India states that there is a traditional fondness for male issues in most parts of the country and a corresponding dislike for female children. However, a life table for India applied to the 1951 census gave a higher average female age at death 34.7 years as opposed to 33.5 years for male. Other estimates for India and Pakistan for the period 1951-1961 give 37.8 years for life expectancy for males and 36.98 for females. In 1953 the female death rate in Ceylon was over 80% higher than that of the males in the most reproductive ages, 20-29. In 1963 the female excess mortality at the same ages was still 25%, and in the age group 30-34 almost a 1/3 higher. In India the female death rate at ages 15-44 was 38% higher than that of the males in the 1958-1959 survey and as much as 174% higher in the Khanna rural survey, 1956-1960. In Pakistan a Population growth Estimate experiment conducted during 1962-1965 on a national probability sample has shown that in the ages 15-44 the female death rate was 75% higher than that of the males. High maternal mortality was the major reason. In addition, female mortality among young children over age 1 year was 24% higher in 1965 and 1963. There was little difference between the rates of mortality of the 2 sexes at age 45 and above. Recent trends in Ceylon show considerable improvement in maternal mortality which has reduced by 22% the ratio of female to male mortality at age 15-44. Also the ratio at ages 1-9 fell by 8%. to .1 of a year for every calendar year to 1980.

  13. Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Steve; Singer, Mervyn; Sanderson, Colin; Grieve, Richard; Harrison, David; Rowan, Kathryn

    2018-05-07

    To estimate the effect of prompt admission to critical care on mortality for deteriorating ward patients. We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive ward patients assessed for critical care. Prompt admissions (within 4 h of assessment) were compared to a 'watchful waiting' cohort. We used critical care strain (bed occupancy) as a natural randomisation event that would predict prompt transfer to critical care. Strain was classified as low, medium or high (2+, 1 or 0 empty beds). This instrumental variable (IV) analysis was repeated for the subgroup of referrals with a recommendation for critical care once assessed. Risk-adjusted 90-day survival models were also constructed. A total of 12,380 patients from 48 hospitals were available for analysis. There were 2411 (19%) prompt admissions (median delay 1 h, IQR 1-2) and 9969 (81%) controls; 1990 (20%) controls were admitted later (median delay 11 h, IQR 6-26). Prompt admissions were less frequent (p care. In the risk-adjust survival model, 90-day mortality was similar. After allowing for unobserved prognostic differences between the groups, we find that prompt admission to critical care leads to lower 90-day mortality for patients assessed and recommended to critical care.

  14. Factors affecting mortality in older trauma patients-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammy, Ian; Lecky, Fiona; Sutton, Anthea; Leaviss, Joanna; O'Cathain, Alicia

    2016-06-01

    Major trauma in older people is a significant health burden in the developed world. The aging of the population has resulted in larger numbers of older patients suffering serious injury. Older trauma patients are at greater risk of death from major trauma, but the reasons for this are less well understood. The aim of this review was to identify the factors affecting mortality in older patients suffering major injury. A systematic review of Medline, Cinhal and the Cochrane database, supplemented by a manual search of relevant papers was undertaken, with meta-analysis. Multi-centre cohort studies of existing trauma registries that reported risk-adjusted mortality (adjusted odds ratios, AOR) in their outcomes and which analysed patients aged 65 and older as a separate cohort were included in the review. 3609 papers were identified from the electronic databases, and 28 from manual searches. Of these, 15 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Demographic variables (age and gender), pre-existing conditions (comorbidities and medication), and injury-related factors (injury severity, pattern and mechanism) were found to affect mortality. The 'oldest old', aged 75 and older, had higher mortality rates than younger patients, aged 65-74 years. Older men had a significantly higher mortality rate than women (cumulative odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.37-1.66). Three papers reported a higher risk of death in patients with pre-existing conditions. Two studies reported increased mortality in patients on warfarin (cumulative odds ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.05-1.66). Higher mortality was seen in patients with lower Glasgow coma scores and systolic blood pressures. Mortality increased with increased injury severity and number of injuries sustained. Low level falls were associated with higher mortality than motor vehicle collisions (cumulative odds ratio 2.88, 95% CI 1.26-6.60). Multiple factors contribute to mortality risk in older trauma patients. The relation between these factors and

  15. Low birthweight and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakketeig, Leiv S.; Jacobsen, Geir; Skjærven, Rolv

    2006-01-01

    . The analysis considered 7 803 of these births, as 8 were excluded due to insufficient information. 30% of these second order LBW children had an older sibling who was also LBW. Early neonatal mortality of a “repeat” LBW birth was about 13% lower than among “non-repeat” LBW births (p..., the infant mortality was significantly higher among non-repeat LBW births (78.4 vs 60.8 per 1000, RR 1.30, CI 1.06, 1.56). Both after 1 and 5 minutes a significantly greater proportion of LBW repeat births had Apgar scores of 7 or above. Repeat second order LBW births weighed on average 68 grams more than...... non-repeat LBW births (pvs 2...

  16. Regional inequalities in mortality.

    OpenAIRE

    Illsley, R; Le Grand, J

    1993-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--To examine the hypothesis of sustained and persistent inequalities in health between British regions and to ask how far they are a consequence of using standardised mortality ratios as the tool of measurement. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS--Data are regional, age specific death rates at seven points in time from 1931 to 1987-89 for the British regions, reconstructed to make them comparable with the 1981 regional definitions. Log variance is used to measure inequality; regi...

  17. Mortality in necrotizing fasciitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waseem, A.R.; Samad, A.

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the mortality rate in patients presenting with Necrotizing Fasciitis. This prospective study was conducted at ward 26, JPMC Karachi over a period of two years from March 2001 to Feb 2003. All patients above the age of 12 years diagnosed to be having Necrotizing Fasciitis and admitted through the Accident and emergency department were included in this study. After resuscitation, the patients underwent the emergency exploration and aggressive surgical debridement. Post-operatively, the patients were managed in isolated section of the ward. The patients requiring grafting were referred to plastic surgery unit. The patients were followed up in outpatients department for about two years. Over all, 25 male and 5 female patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this study. The common clinical manifestations include redness, swelling, discharging abscess, pain, fever, skin necrosis and foul smelling discharge etc. The most common predisposing factor was Diabetes mellitus whereas the most commonly involved site was perineum. All patients underwent aggressive and extensive surgical debridements. The common additional procedures included Skin grafting, Secondary suturing, Cystostomy and Orchidectomy. Bacteroides and E. coli were the main micro-organisms isolated in this study. Bacteroides was the most common microorganism isolated among the eight patients who died. Necrotizing Fasciitis is a potentially life threatening emergency condition and carries the mortality rate of about 26.6%. The major contributing factors to increase the mortality missed initially diagnosed, old age, diabetes mellitus truncal involvement and late presentation. Anorectal involvement of disease carry worse prognosis. Hyperbaric oxygen therapy and proper use of unprocessed honey reduced the mortality rate. (author)

  18. Deciphering infant mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrut, Sylvie; Pouillard, Violette; Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper is about infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" refers to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition provides a systems science perspective in which birth constitutes a sudden transition falling within the field of application of the Transient Shock (TS) conjecture put forward in Richmond and Roehner (2016c). This conjecture provides predictions about the timing and shape of the death rate peak. It says that there will be a death rate spike whenever external conditions change abruptly and drastically and also predicts that after a steep rise there will be a much longer hyperbolic relaxation process. These predictions can be tested by considering living organisms for which the transient shock occurs several days after birth. Thus, for fish there are three stages: egg, yolk-sac and young adult phases. The TS conjecture predicts a mortality spike at the end of the yolk-sac phase and this timing is indeed confirmed by observation. Secondly, the hyperbolic nature of the relaxation process can be tested using very accurate Swiss statistics for postnatal death rates spanning the period from one hour immediately after birth through to age 10 years. It turns out that since the 19th century despite a significant and large reduction in infant mortality, the shape of the age-specific death rate has remained basically unchanged. Moreover the hyperbolic pattern observed for humans is also found for small primates as recorded in the archives of zoological gardens. Our overall objective is to identify a series of cases which start from simple systems and move step by step to more complex organisms. The cases discussed here we believe represent initial landmarks in this quest.

  19. Mortality in acromegaly: a metaanalysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekkers, O. M.; Biermasz, N. R.; Pereira, A. M.; Romijn, J. A.; Vandenbroucke, J. P.

    2008-01-01

    Several studies have assessed mortality risk in patients treated for acromegaly. All studies found a mortality that was higher than expected for the general population, but most of these increases were not statistically significant. For this reason, it is not formally established whether mortality

  20. Effects of a Birth Hospital's Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Level and Annual Volume of Very Low-Birth-Weight Infant Deliveries on Morbidity and Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Erik A; Lorch, Scott A

    2015-08-01

    The annual volume of deliveries of very low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants has a greater effect on mortality risk than does neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) level. The differential effect of these hospital factors on morbidity among VLBW infants is uncertain. To assess the independent effects of a birth hospital's annual volume of VLBW infant deliveries and NICU level on the risk of several neonatal morbidities and morbidity-mortality composite outcomes that are predictive of future neurocognitive development. Retrospective, population-based cohort study (performed in 2014) of all VLBW infants without severe congenital anomalies delivered in all hospitals in California, Missouri, and Pennsylvania between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2009 (N = 72,431). Risk-adjusted odds ratios and risk-adjusted probabilities were determined by logistic regression. The primary study outcomes were the individual composites of death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia, necrotizing enterocolitis, retinopathy of prematurity, and severe intraventricular hemorrhage. Among the 72,431 VLBW infants in the present study, birth at a hospital with 10 or less deliveries of VLBW infants per year was associated with the highest risk-adjusted probability of death (15.3% [95% CI, 14.4%-16.3%]), death or severe intraventricular hemorrhage (17.5% [95% CI, 16.5%-18.6%]), and death or necrotizing enterocolitis (19.3% [95% CI, 18.1%-20.4%]). These complications were also more common among infants born at hospitals with a level I or II NICU compared with infants delivered at hospitals with a level IIIB/C NICU. The risk-adjusted probability of death or retinopathy of prematurity was highest among infants born at hospitals with a level IIIB/C NICU and lowest among infants born at hospitals with a level IIIA NICU. When the effects of NICU level and annual volume of VLBW infant deliveries were evaluated simultaneously, the annual volume of deliveries was the stronger contributor to the risk of death, death or

  1. Mortality among population with exposure to industrial air pollution containing nickel and other toxic metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasanen, Kari; Pukkala, Eero; Turunen, Anu W; Patama, Toni; Jussila, Ilkka; Makkonen, Sari; Salonen, Raimo O; Verkasalo, Pia K

    2012-05-01

    To assess disease mortality among people with exposure to metal-rich particulate air pollution. We conducted a cohort study on mortality from 1981 to 2005 among 33,573 people living near a nickel/copper smelter in Harjavalta, Finland. Nickel concentration in soil humus was selected as an indicator for long-term exposure. Relative risks--adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, and calendar period--were calculated for three exposure zones. The relative risks for diseases of the circulatory system by increasing exposure were 0.93 (95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 1.09), 1.20 (1.04 to 1.39), and 1.18 (1.00 to 1.39) among men and 1.01 (0.88 to 1.17), 1.20 (1.04 to 1.38), and 1.14 (0.97 to 1.33) among women. Exclusion of smelter workers from the cohort did not materially change the results. Long-term environmental exposure to metal-rich air pollution was associated with increased mortality from circulatory diseases.

  2. Risk factors of neonatal mortality and child mortality in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniruzzaman, Md; Suri, Harman S; Kumar, Nishith; Abedin, Md Menhazul; Rahman, Md Jahanur; El-Baz, Ayman; Bhoot, Makrand; Teji, Jagjit S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2018-06-01

    Child and neonatal mortality is a serious problem in Bangladesh. The main objective of this study was to determine the most significant socio-economic factors (covariates) between the years 2011 and 2014 that influences on neonatal and child mortality and to further suggest the plausible policy proposals. We modeled the neonatal and child mortality as categorical dependent variable (alive vs death of the child) while 16 covariates are used as independent variables using χ 2 statistic and multiple logistic regression (MLR) based on maximum likelihood estimate. Using the MLR, for neonatal mortality, diarrhea showed the highest positive coefficient (β = 1.130; P  economic conditions for neonatal mortality. For child mortality, birth order between 2-6 years and 7 and above years showed the highest positive coefficients (β = 1.042; P  economic conditions for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh. In 2014, mother's age and father's education were also still significant covariates for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh.

  3. Evaluation of hospital outcomes: the relation between length-of-stay, readmission, and mortality in a large international administrative database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lingsma, Hester F; Bottle, Alex; Middleton, Steve; Kievit, Job; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Marang-van de Mheen, Perla J

    2018-02-14

    Hospital mortality, readmission and length of stay (LOS) are commonly used measures for quality of care. We aimed to disentangle the correlations between these interrelated measures and propose a new way of combining them to evaluate the quality of hospital care. We analyzed administrative data from the Global Comparators Project from 26 hospitals on patients discharged between 2007 and 2012. We correlated standardized and risk-adjusted hospital outcomes on mortality, readmission and long LOS. We constructed a composite measure with 5 levels, based on literature review and expert advice, from survival without readmission and normal LOS (best) to mortality (worst outcome). This composite measure was analyzed using ordinal regression, to obtain a standardized outcome measure to compare hospitals. Overall, we observed a 3.1% mortality rate, 7.8% readmission rate (in survivors) and 20.8% long LOS rate among 4,327,105 admissions. Mortality and LOS were correlated at the patient and the hospital level. A patient in the upper quartile LOS had higher odds of mortality (odds ratio = 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.43-1.47) than those in the lowest quartile. Hospitals with a high standardized mortality had higher proportions of long LOS (r = 0.79, p < 0.01). Readmission rates did not correlate with either mortality or long LOS rates. The interquartile range of the standardized ordinal composite outcome was 74-117. The composite outcome had similar or better reliability in ranking hospitals than individual outcomes. Correlations between different outcome measures are complex and differ between hospital- and patient-level. The proposed composite measure combines three outcomes in an ordinal fashion for a more comprehensive and reliable view of hospital performance than its component indicators.

  4. The Association Between Neighborhood Environment and Mortality: Results from a National Study of Veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Karin; Schwartz, Greg; Hernandez, Susan; Simonetti, Joseph; Curtis, Idamay; Fihn, Stephan D

    2017-04-01

    As the largest integrated US health system, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) provides unique national data to expand knowledge about the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES) and health. Although living in areas of lower NSES has been associated with higher mortality, previous studies have been limited to higher-income, less diverse populations than those who receive VHA care. To describe the association between NSES and all-cause mortality in a national sample of veterans enrolled in VHA primary care. One-year observational cohort of veterans who were alive on December 31, 2011. Data on individual veterans (vital status, and clinical and demographic characteristics) were abstracted from the VHA Corporate Data Warehouse. Census tract information was obtained from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey. Logistic regression was used to model the association between NSES deciles and all-cause mortality during 2012, adjusting for individual-level income and demographics, and accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Veterans who had vital status, demographic, and NSES data, and who were both assigned a primary care physician and alive on December 31, 2011 (n = 4,814,631). Census tracts were used as proxies for neighborhoods. A summary score based on census tract data characterized NSES. Veteran addresses were geocoded and linked to census tract NSES scores. Census tracts were divided into NSES deciles. In adjusted analysis, veterans living in the lowest-decile NSES tract were 10 % (OR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.07, 1.14) more likely to die than those living in the highest-decile NSES tract. Lower neighborhood SES is associated with all-cause mortality among veterans after adjusting for individual-level socioeconomic characteristics. NSES should be considered in risk adjustment models for veteran mortality, and may need to be incorporated into strategies aimed at improving veteran health.

  5. Association of Peak Changes in Plasma Cystatin C and Creatinine with Mortality post Cardiac Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Meyeon; Shlipak, Michael G.; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Garg, Amit X.; Koyner, Jay L.; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Background Acute kidney injury is a risk factor for mortality in cardiac surgery patients. Plasma cystatin C and creatinine have different temporal profiles in the post-operative setting, but the associations of simultaneous changes in both filtration markers as compared to change in only one marker with prognosis following hospital discharge are not well described. Methods This is a longitudinal study of 1199 high-risk adult cardiac surgery patients in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium who survived hospitalization. We examined in-hospital peak changes of cystatin C and creatinine in the 3 days following cardiac surgery. We evaluated associations of these filtration markers with mortality, adjusting for demographics, operative characteristics, medical comorbidities, pre-operative estimated glomerular filtration rate, pre-operative urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, and site. Results During the first 3 days of hospitalization, nearly twice as many patients had a ≥ 25% rise in creatinine (30%) compared to a ≥ 25% peak rise in cystatin C (15%). Those with elevations in either cystatin C or creatinine had higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio cystatin C 1.83 (95% CI 1.4–2.37) and creatinine 1.90 (95% CI 1.32–2.72)) compared with persons who experienced a post-operative decrease in either filtration marker, respectively. Patients who had simultaneous elevations of ≥ 25% in both cystatin C and creatinine were at similar adjusted risk for 3 year mortality (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03–3.1) as those with ≥ 25% increase in cystatin C alone (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.09–4.47). Conclusions Elevations in creatinine post-operatively are more common than elevations in cystatin C. However, elevations in cystatin C appeared to be associated with higher risk of mortality after hospital discharge. PMID:26921980

  6. Journey to top performance: a multipronged quality improvement approach to reducing cardiac surgery mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheinerman, S Jacob; Dlugacz, Yosef D; Hartman, Alan R; Moravick, Donna; Nelson, Karen L; Scanlon, Kerri Anne; Stier, Lori

    2015-02-01

    In 2006, leadership at Long Island Jewish Medical Center (New Hyde Park, New York) noted significantly higher cardiac surgery mortality rates for isolated valve and valve/coronary artery bypass graft procedures compared to the New York State Department of Health's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System statewide average. Long Island Jewish Medical Center, a 583-bed nonprofit, tertiary care teaching hospital, is one of the clinical and academic hubs of North Shore-LIJ Health System. Senior leadership launched an evaluation of the cardiac surgery program to determine why cardiac surgery mortality rates were higher than expected. As a result, the cardiac surgery program was redesigned, and interventions were implemented related to preoperative care, intraoperative monitoring, postoperative care, and the cardiac surgery quality management program. According to the most recent New York State Department of Health reporting period (2009-2011), Long Island Jewish Medical Center had the lowest risk-adjusted mortality rate in New York State for adult patients undergoing surgeries to repair or replace heart valves and for adult patients in need of valve/coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The medical center has sustained significantly lower mortality rates compared to the statewide average for the past three cardiac surgery reporting periods. Cardiac surgery mortality rates can be significantly reduced and sustained below comparative norms when the organization is committed to clinical excellence and quality and is involved in continuously assessing organizational performance. The evaluation launched at Long Island Jewish Medical Center led to the redesign of the cardiac surgery program and prompted widespread improvement efforts and cultural change across the entire organization.

  7. Is 30-Day Mortality after Admission for Heart Failure an Appropriate Metric for Quality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faillace, Robert T; Yost, Gregory W; Chugh, Yashasvi; Adams, Jeffrey; Verma, Beni R; Said, Zaid; Sayed, Ibrahim Ismail; Honushefsky, Ashley; Doddamani, Sanjay; Berger, Peter B

    2018-02-01

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) model for publicly reporting national 30-day-risk-adjusted mortality rates for patients admitted with heart failure fails to include clinical variables known to impact total mortality or take into consideration the culture of end-of-life care. We sought to determine if those variables were related to the 30-day mortality of heart failure patients at Geisinger Medical Center. Electronic records were searched for patients with a diagnosis of heart failure who died from any cause during hospitalization or within 30 days of admission. There were 646 heart-failure-related admissions among 530 patients (1.2 admissions/patient). Sixty-seven of the 530 (13%) patients died: 35 (52%) died during their hospitalization and 32 (48%) died after discharge but within 30 days of admission; of these, 27 (40%) had been transferred in for higher-acuity care. Fifty-one (76%) died from heart failure, and 16 (24%) from other causes. Fifty-five (82%) patients were classified as American Heart Association Stage D, 58 (87%) as New York Heart Association Class IV, and 30 (45%) had right-ventricular systolic dysfunction. None of the 32 patients who died after discharge met recommendations for beta-blockers. Criteria for prescribing angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, and mineralocorticoid receptor blockers were not met by 33 of the 34 patients (97%) with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction not on one of those drugs. Fifty-seven patients (85%) had a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) status. A majority of heart failure-related mortality was among patients who opted for a DNR status with end-stage heart failure, limiting the appropriateness of administering evidence-based therapies. No care gaps were identified that contributed to mortality at our institution. The CMS 30-day model fails to take important variables into consideration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Mortality from cancer and all causes among British radiologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.G.; Doll, R.

    1981-01-01

    The mortality of men who joined a British radiological society between 1897 and 1954 has been compared with that of (i) all men in England and Wales, (ii) men in social class 1, and (iii) male medical practitioners. Radiologists who entered the profession before 1921 suffered a death rate from cancer 75% higher than that of medical practitioners. Among these men there was a statistically significant excess of deaths from cancers of the pancreas (6 against 1.9 expected), lung (8 against 3.7), and skin (6 against 0.8), and from leukaemia (4 against 0.7). There were 72 deaths from cancer among men who entered the study after 1920 and 68.6 deaths were expected, based upon rates among medical practitioners. For no individual cancer site did the observed number of deaths exceed the expected number. There was some evidence, however, that the ratio of observed to expected cancer increased with the duration of time that men were included in the study. Among those followed for more than 30 years there were 30 deaths against 22.1 expected. It is not possible to make a close estimate of the dose of radiation received by the men in this study, but those who entered between 1920 and 1945 could have received an accumulated whole-body dose of the order of 1-5 Gy(100 to 500 rad). For all non-cancer causes of death combined, the death rate among radiologists is lower than that among all men in England and Wales, men in social class 1, and male medical practitioners. The data offer no support for the concept of a non-specific aging effect of radiation. (author)

  9. Mortality after hemorrhagic stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González-Pérez, Antonio; Gaist, David; Wallander, Mari-Ann

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate short-term case fatality and long-term mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) using data from The Health Improvement Network database. METHODS: Thirty-day case fatality was stratified by age, sex, and calendar year after ICH...... = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: More than one-third of individuals die in the first month after hemorrhagic stroke, and patients younger than 50 years are more likely to die after ICH than SAH. Short-term case fatality has decreased over time. Patients who survive hemorrhagic stroke have a continuing elevated......, 54.6% for 80-89 years; SAH: 20.3% for 20-49 years, 56.7% for 80-89 years; both p-trend stroke patients...

  10. Excess Early Mortality in Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia is often referred to as one of the most severe mental disorders, primarily because of the very high mortality rates of those with the disorder. This article reviews the literature on excess early mortality in persons with schizophrenia and suggests reasons for the high mortality...... as well as possible ways to reduce it. Persons with schizophrenia have an exceptionally short life expectancy. High mortality is found in all age groups, resulting in a life expectancy of approximately 20 years below that of the general population. Evidence suggests that persons with schizophrenia may...... not have seen the same improvement in life expectancy as the general population during the past decades. Thus, the mortality gap not only persists but may actually have increased. The most urgent research agenda concerns primary candidates for modifiable risk factors contributing to this excess mortality...

  11. Acute Myocardial Infarction, Use of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, and Mortality: A Comparative Effectiveness Analysis Covering Seven European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, Terje P; Häkkinen, Unto; Belicza, Eva; Fatore, Giovanni; Goude, Fanny

    2015-12-01

    Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients have increased substantially in the last 12-15 years because of its clinical effectiveness. The expansion of PCI treatment for AMI patients raises two questions: How did PCI utilization rates vary across European regions, and which healthcare system and regional characteristic variables correlated with the utilization rate? Were the differences in use of PCI associated with differences in outcome, operationalized as 30-day mortality? We obtained our results from a dataset based on the administrative information systems of the populations of seven European countries. PCI rates were highest in the Netherlands, followed by Sweden and Hungary. The probability of receiving PCI was highest in regions with their own PCI facilities and in healthcare systems with activity-based reimbursement systems. Thirty-day mortality rates differed considerably between the countries with the highest rates in Hungary, Scotland, and Finland. Mortality was lowest in Sweden and Norway. The associations between PCI and mortality were remarkable in all age groups and across most countries. Despite extensive risk adjustment, we interpret the associations both as effects of selection and treatments. We observed a lower effect of PCI in the higher age groups in Hungary. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Adult mortality in preindustrial Quebec

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudine Lacroix - - - Bertrand Desjardins

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the main results of a detailed study on adult mortality in French Canadians born before 1750 and having married inthe colony of New France. Using data from parish registers, mortality is studied using abridged life tables, with staggered entries according to age at first marriage. Survival tables and log-Rank tests are used to support the results. Three features were selected for the study of differential mortality: gender, type of residence area (urban or rural, and cohort. The mortality of French Canadians is compared to that of their French contemporaries.

  13. Inequalities in mortality: study rates, not standardised mortality ratios [Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonneux, L.G.A.

    2010-01-01

    In their study from 1921 to 2007 Thomas and colleagues conclude on the basis of standardised mortality ratios that inequalities in mortality continue to rise and are now almost as high as in the 1930s. Relative ratios are, however, misleading when absolute rates change strongly. I calculated the

  14. Using a relational database to improve mortality and length of stay for a department of surgery: a comparative review of 5200 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Darwin N; Behrns, Kevin E

    2013-07-01

    The emphasis on high-quality care has spawned the development of quality programs, most of which focus on broad outcome measures across a diverse group of providers. Our aim was to investigate the clinical outcomes for a department of surgery with multiple service lines of patient care using a relational database. Mortality, length of stay (LOS), patient safety indicators (PSIs), and hospital-acquired conditions were examined for each service line. Expected values for mortality and LOS were derived from University HealthSystem Consortium regression models, whereas expected values for PSIs were derived from Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality regression models. Overall, 5200 patients were evaluated from the months of January through May of both 2011 (n = 2550) and 2012 (n = 2650). The overall observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio of mortality improved from 1.03 to 0.92. The overall O/E ratio for LOS improved from 0.92 to 0.89. PSIs that predicted mortality included postoperative sepsis (O/E:1.89), postoperative respiratory failure (O/E:1.83), postoperative metabolic derangement (O/E:1.81), and postoperative deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolus (O/E:1.8). Mortality and LOS can be improved by using a relational database with outcomes reported to specific service lines. Service line quality can be influenced by distribution of frequent reports, group meetings, and service line-directed interventions.

  15. 30-Day Mortality and Readmission after Hemorrhagic Stroke among Medicare Beneficiaries in Joint Commission Primary Stroke Center Certified and Non-Certified Hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtman, Judith H.; Jones, Sara B.; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C.; Wang, Yun; Goldstein, Larry B.

    2012-01-01

    Background and Purpose Ischemic stroke patients treated at Joint Commission Primary Stroke Center (JC-PSC) certified hospitals have better outcomes. Data reflecting the impact of JC-PSC status on outcomes after hemorrhagic stroke are limited. We determined whether 30-day mortality and readmission rates after hemorrhagic stroke differed for patients treated at JC-PSC certified versus non-certified hospitals. Methods The study included all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years old with a primary discharge diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in 2006. Covariate-adjusted logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the effect of care at a JC-PSC certified hospital on 30-day mortality and readmission. Results There were 2,305 SAH and 8,708 ICH discharges from JC-PSC certified hospitals and 3,892 SAH and 22,564 ICH discharges from non-certified hospitals. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality (SAH: 27.5% vs. 33.2%, pmortality (SAH: 35.1% vs. 44.0%, pmortality was 34% lower (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.76) after SAH and 14% lower (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80–0.92) after ICH for patients discharged from JC-PSC certified hospitals. There was no difference in 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates for SAH or ICH based on JC-PSC status. Conclusions Patients treated at JC-PSC certified hospitals had lower risk-adjusted mortality rates for both SAH and ICH but similar 30-day readmission rates as compared with non-certified hospitals. PMID:22033986

  16. 30-day mortality and readmission after hemorrhagic stroke among Medicare beneficiaries in Joint Commission primary stroke center-certified and noncertified hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtman, Judith H; Jones, Sara B; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Wang, Yun; Goldstein, Larry B

    2011-12-01

    Ischemic stroke patients treated at Joint Commission Primary Stroke Center (JC-PSC)-certified hospitals have better outcomes. Data reflecting the impact of JC-PSC status on outcomes after hemorrhagic stroke are limited. We determined whether 30-day mortality and readmission rates after hemorrhagic stroke differed for patients treated at JC-PSC-certified versus noncertified hospitals. The study included all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with a primary discharge diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in 2006. Covariate-adjusted logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the effect of care at a JC-PSC-certified hospital on 30-day mortality and readmission. There were 2305 SAH and 8708 ICH discharges from JC-PSC-certified hospitals and 3892 SAH and 22 564 ICH discharges from noncertified hospitals. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality (SAH: 27.5% versus 33.2%, Pmortality (SAH: 35.1% versus 44.0%, Pmortality was 34% lower (odds ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.76) after SAH and 14% lower (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.92) after ICH for patients discharged from JC-PSC-certified hospitals. There was no difference in 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates for SAH or ICH based on JC-PSC status. Patients treated at JC-PSC-certified hospitals had lower risk-adjusted mortality rates for both SAH and ICH but similar 30-day readmission rates as compared with noncertified hospitals.

  17. Mortality, fog and atmospheric pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, A E; Bradley, W H

    1960-01-01

    A study was made associating climate and atmospheric pollution with excess mortality in greater London during the winter of 1958 and 1959. It was a particularly foggy winter with 6 major episodes, 4 of which resembled previous dangerous smogs. There were two additional periods of high pollution without fog. Excess mortality during these 8 periods ranged from 70 to 230. During one period, a flu epidemic accompanied the fog. In 4 to 6 foggy periods, morbidity (hospital bed demand) also increased. This small number of observations indicates mortality association: on 2/3 of days with high SO/sub 2/ (2.5 pphM) or high particulate soot (10 mg/m/sup 3/), and on all days with thick fog, there was an increase in mortality (20 deaths more than previous day) on that or the following day. Fifteen-day moving mortality index and bronchitis mortality index were significantly correlated with black suspended matter and SO/sub 2/; association with pneumonia was not significant. Also little or no relation between mortality and humidity, mean temperature, or barometric pressure was found. Rapid response of mortality to air pollution may indicate that pollution affects mostly those already ill.

  18. Infant Mortality and Hispanic Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Infant Mortality Statistics from the 2013 Period Linked Birth/Infant Death Data Set. National Vital Statistics Reports . Table 5. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_09.pdf [PDF | 994KB] Infant deaths and mortality rates for the top 4 leading cause of death ...

  19. Hostility, drinking pattern and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, Stephen H; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Grønbaek, Morten

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the association of hostility to drinking pattern and whether this association mediated the relation of hostility to mortality.......This study examined the association of hostility to drinking pattern and whether this association mediated the relation of hostility to mortality....

  20. Intrinsic and extrinsic mortality reunited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koopman, Jacob J E; Wensink, Maarten J; Rozing, Maarten P

    2015-01-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic mortality are often separated in order to understand and measure aging. Intrinsic mortality is assumed to be a result of aging and to increase over age, whereas extrinsic mortality is assumed to be a result of environmental hazards and be constant over age. However......, allegedly intrinsic and extrinsic mortality have an exponentially increasing age pattern in common. Theories of aging assert that a combination of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors underlies the increasing risk of death. Epidemiological and biological data support that the control of intrinsic as well...... as extrinsic stressors can alleviate the aging process. We argue that aging and death can be better explained by the interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors than by classifying mortality itself as being either intrinsic or extrinsic. Recognition of the tight interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic...

  1. The German Quality Network Sepsis: study protocol for the evaluation of a quality collaborative on decreasing sepsis-related mortality in a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Rüddel, Hendrik; Gründling, Matthias; Putensen, Christian; Reinhart, Konrad

    2018-01-18

    While sepsis-related mortality decreased substantially in other developed countries, mortality of severe sepsis remained as high as 44% in Germany. A recent German cluster randomized trial was not able to improve guideline adherence and decrease sepsis-related mortality within the participating hospitals, partly based on lacking support by hospital management and lacking resources for documentation of prospective data. Thus, more pragmatic approaches are needed to improve quality of sepsis care in Germany. The primary objective of the study is to decrease sepsis-related hospital mortality within a quality collaborative relying on claims data. The German Quality Network Sepsis (GQNS) is a quality collaborative involving 75 hospitals. This study protocol describes the conduction and evaluation of the start-up period of the GQNS running from March 2016 to August 2018. Democratic structures assure participatory action, a study coordination bureau provides central support and resources, and local interdisciplinary quality improvement teams implement changes within the participating hospitals. Quarterly quality reports focusing on risk-adjusted hospital mortality in cases with sepsis based on claims data are provided. Hospitals committed to publish their individual risk-adjusted mortality compared to the German average. A complex risk-model is used to control for differences in patient-related risk factors. Hospitals are encouraged to implement a bundle of interventions, e.g., interdisciplinary case analyses, external peer-reviews, hospital-wide staff education, and implementation of rapid response teams. The effectiveness of the GQNS is evaluated in a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design by comparing the change of hospital mortality of cases with sepsis with organ dysfunction from a retrospective baseline period (January 2014 to December 2015) and the intervention period (April 2016 to March 2018) between the participating hospitals and all other German

  2. High Resource Utilization Does Not Affect Mortality in Acute Respiratory Failure Patients Managed With Tracheostomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Bradley D; Stwalley, Dustin; Lambert, Dennis; Edler, Joshua; Morris, Peter E; Medvedev, Sofia; Hohmann, Samuel F; Kymes, Steven M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Tracheostomy practice in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) varies greatly among institutions. This variability has the potential to be reflected in the resources expended providing care. In various healthcare environments, increased resource expenditure has been associated with a favorable effect on outcome. OBJECTIVE To examine the association between institutional resource expenditure and mortality in ARF patients managed with tracheostomy. METHODS We developed analytic models employing the University Health Systems Consortium (Oakbrook, Illinois) database. Administrative coding data were used to identify patients with the principal diagnosis of ARF, procedures, complications, post-discharge destination, and survival. Mean resource intensity of participating academic medical centers was determined using risk-adjusted estimates of costs. Mortality risk was determined using a multivariable approach that incorporated patient-level demographic and clinical variables and institution-level resource intensity. RESULTS We analyzed data from 44,124 ARF subjects, 4,776 (10.8%) of whom underwent tracheostomy. Compared to low-resource-intensity settings, treatment in high-resource-intensity academic medical centers was associated with increased risk of mortality (odds ratio 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.76), including those managed with tracheostomy (odds ratio high-resource-intensity academic medical center with tracheostomy 1.10, 95% CI 1.04 –1.17). We examined the relationship between complication development and outcome. While neither the profile nor number of complications accumulated differed comparing treatment environments (P > .05 for both), mortality for tracheostomy patients experiencing complications was greater in high-resource-intensity (95/313, 30.3%) versus low-resource-intensity (552/2,587, 21.3%) academic medical centers (P tracheostomy. PMID:23650434

  3. Variations in mortality after emergency laparotomy: the first report of the UK Emergency Laparotomy Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, D I; Murray, D; Pichel, A C; Varley, S; Peden, C J

    2012-09-01

    Emergency laparotomy is a common intra-abdominal procedure. Outcomes are generally recognized to be poor, but there is a paucity of hard UK data, and reports have mainly been confined to single-centre studies. Clinicians were invited to join an 'Emergency Laparotomy Network' and to collect prospective non-risk-adjusted outcome data from a large number of NHS Trusts providing emergency surgical care. Data concerning what were considered to be key aspects of perioperative care, including thirty-day mortality, were collected over a 3 month period. Data from 1853 patients were collected from 35 NHS hospitals. The unadjusted 30 day mortality was 14.9% for all patients and 24.4% in patients aged 80 or over. There was a wide variation between units in terms of the proportion of cases subject to key interventions that may affect outcomes. The presence of a consultant surgeon in theatre varied between 40.6% and 100% of cases, while a consultant anaesthetist was present in theatre for 25-100% of cases. Goal-directed fluid management was used in 0-63% of cases. Between 0% and 68.9% of the patients returned to the ward (level one) after surgery, and between 9.7% and 87.5% were admitted to intensive care (level three). Mortality rates varied from 3.6% to 41.7%. This study confirms that emergency laparotomy in the UK carries a high mortality. The variation in clinical management and outcomes indicates the need for a national quality improvement programme.

  4. Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

    2013-05-24

    Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995-2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) "in-control" status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals

  5. MORTALITY MODELING WITH LEVY PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Serhat Yucel, FRM

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Mortality and longevity risk is usually one of the main risk components ineconomic capital models of insurance companies. Above all, future mortalityexpectations are an important input in the modeling and pricing of long termproducts. Deviations from the expectation can lead insurance company even todefault if sufficient reserves and capital is not held. Thus, Modeling of mortalitytime series accurately is a vital concern for the insurance industry. The aim of thisstudy is to perform distributional and spectral testing to the mortality data andpracticed discrete and continuous time modeling. We believe, the results and thetechniques used in this study will provide a basis for Value at Risk formula incase of mortality.

  6. US National Trends in Mortality From Acute Myocardial Infarction and Heart Failure: Policy Success or Failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Paula; Joynt Maddox, Karen E

    2018-03-14

    Hospitals in the United States have been subject to mandatory public reporting of mortality rates for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and heart failure (HF) since 2007 and to value-based payment programs for these conditions since 2011. However, whether hospitals with initially poor baseline performance have improved relative to other hospitals under these programs, and whether patterns of improvement differ by condition, is unknown. Understanding trends within public reporting and value-based payment can inform future efforts in these areas. To examine patterns in 30-day mortality from AMI and HF and determine whether they differ for baseline poor performers (worst quartile in 2009 and 2010 in public reporting, prior to value-based payment) compared with other hospitals. Retrospective cross-sectional study at US acute care hospitals from 2009 to 2015 that included 2751 and 3796 hospitals with publicly reported mortality data for AMI and HF, respectively. Public reporting and value-based purchasing. Hospital-level risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates. We identified 422 and 600 baseline poor-performing hospitals for AMI and HF, respectively. Baseline poor performers for AMI were more often public and for-profit and less often teaching hospitals. Baseline poor performers for HF were less often large hospitals. For AMI, 30-day mortality among baseline poor performers was higher at baseline but improved more over time compared with other hospitals (18.6% in 2009 to 14.6% in 2015; -0.74% per year; P < .001 vs 15.7% in 2009 to 14.0% in 2015; -0.26% per year; P < .001; P for interaction <.001). In contrast, for HF, baseline poor performers improved over time (13.5%-13.0%; -0.12% per year; P < .001), but mean mortality among all other HF hospitals increased during the study period (10.9%-12.0%; 0.17% per year; P < .001; P for interaction, <.001). Despite being subject to identical policy pressures, mortality trends for AMI and HF differed markedly between

  7. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Infant Deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Mortality - Infant Deaths (from Linked Birth / Infant Death Records) online databases on CDC WONDER provide counts and rates for deaths of children under 1 year...

  8. Physical activity, obesity and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauman, Adrian E.; Grunseit, Anne C.; Rangul, Vegar

    2017-01-01

    Background: Most studies of physical activity (PA) epidemiology use behaviour measured at a single time-point. We examined whether 'PA patterns' (consistently low, consistently high or inconsistent PA levels over time) showed different epidemiological relationships for anthropometric and mortality...

  9. Predictors of paediatric injury mortality

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PTS) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) were tested against outcome by binary logistic regression analysis. Results. Five hundred and seventy-six children presented with injury during the study period with 22 deaths, giving an injury mortality ...

  10. NCHS - Injury Mortality: United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset describes injury mortality in the United States beginning in 1999. Two concepts are included in the circumstances of an injury death: intent of injury...

  11. Mortality studies of Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1986-03-01

    The relationships of cancer mortality with radiation exposure as influenced by age, sex, follow-up time length of employment, and job category are discussed in relation to workers at the Hanford facilities

  12. Stressful social relations and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Rikke; Christensen, Ulla; Nilsson, Charlotte Juul

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the relationship between stressful social relations in private life and all-cause mortality. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between stressful social relations (with partner, children, other family, friends and neighbours, respectively) and all...... men and women aged 36-52 years, linked to the Danish Cause of Death Registry for information on all-cause mortality until 31 December 2011. Associations between stressful social relations with partner, children, other family, friends and neighbours, respectively, and all-cause mortality were examined....... CONCLUSIONS: Stressful social relations are associated with increased mortality risk among middle-aged men and women for a variety of different social roles. Those outside the labour force and men seem especially vulnerable to exposure....

  13. Assessment of hospital performance with a case-mix standardized mortality model using an existing administrative database in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fushimi Kiyohide

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few studies have examined whether risk adjustment is evenly applicable to hospitals with various characteristics and case-mix. In this study, we applied a generic prediction model to nationwide discharge data from hospitals with various characteristics. Method We used standardized data of 1,878,767 discharged patients provided by 469 hospitals from July 1 to October 31, 2006. We generated and validated a case-mix in-hospital mortality prediction model using 50/50 split sample validation. We classified hospitals into two groups based on c-index value (hospitals with c-index ≥ 0.8; hospitals with c-index Results The model demonstrated excellent discrimination as indicated by the high average c-index and small standard deviation (c-index = 0.88 ± 0.04. Expected mortality rate of each hospital was highly correlated with observed mortality rate (r = 0.693, p Conclusion The model fits well to a group of hospitals with a wide variety of acute care events, though model fit is less satisfactory for specialized hospitals and those with convalescent wards. Further sophistication of the generic prediction model would be recommended to obtain optimal indices to region specific conditions.

  14. Cancer mortality in Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.; Gilbert, E.S.; Breitenstein, B.D.

    1978-01-01

    Personnel and radiation exposure data for past and present employees of the Hanford plant have been collected and analysed for a possible relationship of exposure to mortality. The occurrence of death in workers was established by the Social Security Administration and the cause of death obtained from death certificates. Mortality from all causes, all cancer cases and specific cancer types was related to the population at risk. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated for white males, using age- and calendar year-specific mortality rates for the U.S. population in the calculation of expected deaths. This analysis showed a substantial 'healthy worker effect' and no significantly high standardized mortality ratios for specific disease categories. A test for association of mortality with levels of radiation exposure revealed no correlation for all causes and all cancer. In carrying out this test, adjustment was made for age and calendar year of death, length of employment and occupational category. A statistically significant test for trend was obtained for multiple myeloma and carcinoma of the pancreas. However, in view of the absence of such a correlation for diseases more commonly associated with radiation exposure such as myeloid leukaemia, as well as the small number of deaths in higher exposure groups, the results cannot be considered definitive. Any conclusions based on these associations should be viewed in relation to the results of other studies. These results are compared with those of other investigators who have analysed the Hanford data. (author)

  15. High mortality in the Thule cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel, K

    1994-01-01

    The objective was to study mortality in the Thule cohort in order to clarify whether it is a selected population and to ascertain the possibility of misinterpretation when national mortality rates are used as reference in the analysis of occupational mortality.......The objective was to study mortality in the Thule cohort in order to clarify whether it is a selected population and to ascertain the possibility of misinterpretation when national mortality rates are used as reference in the analysis of occupational mortality....

  16. Association of Changing Hospital Readmission Rates With Mortality Rates After Hospital Discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfei; Lin, Zhenqiu; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Ross, Joseph S.; Horwitz, Leora I.; Desai, Nihar R.; Suter, Lisa G.; Drye, Elizabeth E.; Bernheim, Susannah M.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

    2017-01-01

    Importance The Affordable Care Act has led to US national reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia. Whether readmission reductions have had the unintended consequence of increasing mortality after hospitalization is unknown. Objective To examine the correlation of paired trends in hospital 30-day readmission rates and hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2014. Exposure Thirty-day risk-adjusted readmission rate (RARR). Main Outcomes and Measures Thirty-day RARRs and 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) after discharge were calculated for each condition in each month at each hospital in 2008 through 2014. Monthly trends in each hospital’s 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were examined for each condition. The weighted Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated for hospitals’ paired monthly trends in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge for each condition. Results In 2008 through 2014, 2 962 554 hospitalizations for HF, 1 229 939 for AMI, and 2 544 530 for pneumonia were identified at 5016, 4772, and 5057 hospitals, respectively. In January 2008, mean hospital 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were 24.6% and 8.4% for HF, 19.3% and 7.6% for AMI, and 18.3% and 8.5% for pneumonia. Hospital 30-day RARRs declined in the aggregate across hospitals from 2008 through 2014; monthly changes in RARRs were −0.053% (95% CI, −0.055% to −0.051%) for HF, −0.044% (95% CI, −0.047% to −0.041%) for AMI, and −0.033% (95% CI, −0.035% to −0.031%) for pneumonia. In contrast, monthly aggregate changes across hospitals in hospital 30-day RAMRs after discharge varied by condition: HF, 0.008% (95% CI, 0.007% to 0.010%); AMI, −0

  17. 12 CFR 615.5210 - Risk-adjusted assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... appropriate credit conversion factor in § 615.5212, is assigned to one of the risk categories specified in... risk-based capital requirement for the credit-enhanced assets, the risk-based capital required under..., determine the appropriate risk weight for any asset or credit equivalent amount that does not fit wholly...

  18. Risk-Adjusted Returns and Stock Market Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Gary; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that stock market games are designed to provide students with a background for investing in securities, especially stocks. Reviews two games used with secondary students, analyzes statistical data from these experiences, and considers weaknesses in the games. (CFR)

  19. Respiratory tract mortality in cement workers: a proportionate mortality study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The evidence regarding the association between lung cancer and occupational exposure to cement is controversial. This study investigated causes of deaths from cancer of respiratory tract among cement workers. Methods The deaths of the Greek Cement Workers Compensation Scheme were analyzed covering the period 1969-1998. All respiratory, lung, laryngeal and urinary bladder cancer proportionate mortality were calculated for cement production, maintenance, and office workers in the cement industry. Mortality from urinary bladder cancer was used as an indirect indicator of the confounding effect of smoking. Results Mortality from all respiratory cancer was significantly increased in cement production workers (PMR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.54 to 2.33). The proportionate mortality from lung cancer was significantly elevated (PMR = 2.05; 95% CI 1.65 to 2.52). A statistically significant increase in proportionate mortality due to respiratory (PMR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.34). and lung cancer (PMR = 1.67;95% CI = 1.15-2.34) among maintenance workers has been observed. The PMR among the three groups of workers (production, maintenance, office) did differ significantly for lung cancer (p = 0.001), while the PMR for urinary bladder cancer found to be similar among the three groups of cement workers. Conclusion Cement production, and maintenance workers presented increased lung and respiratory cancer proportionate mortality, and this finding probably cannot be explained by the confounding effect of smoking alone. Further research including use of prospective cohort studies is needed in order to establish a causal association between occupational exposure to cement and risk of lung cancer. PMID:22738120

  20. Structural, Nursing, and Physician Characteristics and 30-Day Mortality for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery in Pennsylvania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane-Fall, Meghan B; Ramaswamy, Tara S; Brown, Sydney E S; He, Xu; Gutsche, Jacob T; Fleisher, Lee A; Neuman, Mark D

    2017-09-01

    Cardiac surgery ICU characteristics and clinician staffing patterns have not been well characterized. We sought to describe Pennsylvania cardiac ICUs and to determine whether ICU characteristics are associated with mortality in the 30 days after cardiac surgery. From 2012 to 2013, we conducted a survey of cardiac surgery ICUs in Pennsylvania to assess ICU structure, care practices, and clinician staffing patterns. ICU data were linked to an administrative database of cardiac surgery patient discharges. We used logistic regression to measure the association between ICU variables and death in 30 days. Cardiac surgery ICUs in Pennsylvania. Patients having coronary artery bypass grafting and/or cardiac valve repair or replacement from 2009 to 2011. None. Of the 57 cardiac surgical ICUs in Pennsylvania, 43 (75.4%) responded to the facility survey. Rounds included respiratory therapists in 26 of 43 (60.5%) and pharmacists in 23 of 43 (53.5%). Eleven of 41 (26.8%) reported that at least 2/3 of their nurses had a bachelor's degree in nursing. Advanced practice providers were present in most of the ICUs (37/43; 86.0%) but residents (8/42; 18.6%) and fellows (7/43; 16.3%) were not. Daytime intensivists were present in 21 of 43 (48.8%) responding ICUs; eight of 43 (18.6%) had nighttime intensivists. Among 29,449 patients, there was no relationship between mortality and nurse ICU experience, presence of any intensivist, or absence of residents after risk adjustment. To exclude patients who may have undergone transcatheter aortic valve replacement, we conducted a subgroup analysis of patients undergoing only coronary artery bypass grafting, and results were similar. Pennsylvania cardiac surgery ICUs have variable structures, care practices, and clinician staffing, although none of these are statistically significantly associated with mortality in the 30 days following surgery after adjustment.

  1. Intrinsic and extrinsic mortality reunited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopman, Jacob J E; Wensink, Maarten J; Rozing, Maarten P; van Bodegom, David; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2015-07-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic mortality are often separated in order to understand and measure aging. Intrinsic mortality is assumed to be a result of aging and to increase over age, whereas extrinsic mortality is assumed to be a result of environmental hazards and be constant over age. However, allegedly intrinsic and extrinsic mortality have an exponentially increasing age pattern in common. Theories of aging assert that a combination of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors underlies the increasing risk of death. Epidemiological and biological data support that the control of intrinsic as well as extrinsic stressors can alleviate the aging process. We argue that aging and death can be better explained by the interaction of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors than by classifying mortality itself as being either intrinsic or extrinsic. Recognition of the tight interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic stressors in the causation of aging leads to the recognition that aging is not inevitable, but malleable through the environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Universal mortality law and immortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azbel', Mark Ya.

    2004-10-01

    Well-protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionarily unprecedented. Physical approach, which takes advantage of their extensively quantified mortality, establishes that its dominant fraction yields the exact law, which is universal for all animals from yeast to humans. Singularities of the law demonstrate new kinds of stepwise adaptation. The law proves that universal mortality is an evolutionary by-product, which at any given age is reversible, independent of previous life history, and disposable. Life expectancy may be extended, arguably to immortality, by minor biological amendments in the animals. Indeed, in nematodes with a small number of perturbed genes and tissues it increased 6-fold (to 430 years in human terms), with no apparent loss in health and vitality. The law relates universal mortality to specific processes in cells and their genetic regulation.

  3. Decline in breast cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Njor, Sisse Helle; Schwartz, Walter; Blichert-Toft, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: When estimating the decline in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening, the challenge is to provide valid comparison groups and to distinguish the screening effect from other effects. In Funen, Denmark, multidisciplinary breast cancer management teams started before screening...... was introduced; both activities came later in the rest of Denmark. Because Denmark had national protocols for breast cancer treatment, but hardly any opportunistic screening, Funen formed a "natural experiment", providing valid comparison groups and enabling the separation of the effect of screening from other...... factors. METHODS: Using Poisson regression we compared the observed breast cancer mortality rate in Funen after implementation of screening with the expected rate without screening. The latter was estimated from breast cancer mortality in the rest of Denmark controlled for historical differences between...

  4. Predicting mortality from human faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykiert, Dominika; Bates, Timothy C; Gow, Alan J; Penke, Lars; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether and to what extent mortality is predictable from facial photographs of older people. High-quality facial photographs of 292 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921, taken at the age of about 83 years, were rated in terms of apparent age, health, attractiveness, facial symmetry, intelligence, and well-being by 12 young-adult raters. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study associations between these ratings and mortality during a 7-year follow-up period. All ratings had adequate reliability. Concurrent validity was found for facial symmetry and intelligence (as determined by correlations with actual measures of fluctuating asymmetry in the faces and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices score, respectively), but not for the other traits. Age as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, was a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.65) and remained significant even after controlling for concurrent, objectively measured health and cognitive ability, and the other ratings. Health as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.99) but not after adjusting for rated age or objectively measured health and cognition. Rated attractiveness, symmetry, intelligence, and well-being were not significantly associated with mortality risk. Rated age of the face is a significant predictor of mortality risk among older people, with predictive value over and above that of objective or rated health status and cognitive ability.

  5. [Adult mortality differentials in Argentina].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rofman, R

    1994-06-01

    Adult mortality differentials in Argentina are estimated and analyzed using data from the National Social Security Administration. The study of adult mortality has attracted little attention in developing countries because of the scarcity of reliable statistics and the greater importance assigned to demographic phenomena traditionally associated with development, such as infant mortality and fertility. A sample of 39,421 records of retired persons surviving as of June 30, 1988, was analyzed by age, sex, region of residence, relative amount of pension, and social security fund of membership prior to the consolidation of the system in 1967. The thirteen former funds were grouped into the five categories of government, commerce, industry, self-employed, and other, which were assumed to be proxies for the activity sector in which the individual spent his active life. The sample is not representative of the Argentine population, since it excludes the lowest and highest socioeconomic strata and overrepresents men and urban residents. It is, however, believed to be adequate for explaining mortality differentials for most of the population covered by the social security system. The study methodology was based on the technique of logistic analysis and on the use of regional model life tables developed by Coale and others. To evaluate the effect of the study variables on the probability of dying, a regression model of maximal verisimilitude was estimated. The model relates the logit of the probability of death between ages 65 and 95 to the available explanatory variables, including their possible interactions. Life tables were constructed by sex, region of residence, previous pension fund, and income. As a test of external consistency, a model including only age and sex as explanatory variables was constructed using the methodology. The results confirmed consistency between the estimated values and other published estimates. A significant conclusion of the study was that

  6. Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrance, R A; Dorsch, M F; Sapsford, R J; Mackintosh, A F; Greenwood, D C; Jackson, B M; Morrell, C; Robinson, M B; Hall, A S

    2001-08-11

    Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Observational study. 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of -4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

  7. Child mortality in rural India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Klaauw, B.; Wang, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper focuses on infant and child mortality in rural areas of India. We construct a flexible duration model, which allows for frailty at multiple levels and interactions between the child's age and individual, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. The model is estimated using the

  8. Child mortality in rural India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. van der Klaauw (Bas); L. Wang (Lihong)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on infant and child mortality in rural areas of India. We construct a flexible duration model, which allows for frailty at multiple levels and interactions between the child's age and individual, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. The model is estimated

  9. Educational differences in cardiovascular mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjøllesdal, M. K. R.; Ariansen, I.; Mortensen, L. H.

    2016-01-01

    Aims: To explore the confounding effects of early family factors shared by siblings and cardiovascular risk factors in midlife on the educational differences in mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: Data from national and regional health surveys in Norway (1974–2003) were linked...

  10. Oral health problems and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Ki Kim

    2013-06-01

    Conclusion: Individual oral health conditions—tooth loss, root caries, and periodontal disease—were not related to mortality when sociodemographic, health, and/or health behavioral factors were considered, and there was no differential pattern between the three conditions. Multiple oral health problems were associated with a higher risk of dying.

  11. [Beer, wine, spirits and mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grønbaek, M N; Sørensen, T I; Johansen, D; Becker, U; Gottschau, A; Schnohr, P; Hein, H O; Jensen, G

    2001-05-23

    A population based cohort study investigates the association between alcohol intake and mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease and cancer. The design is prospective with baseline assessment of intake of beer, wine and spirits, smoking habits, educational level, physical activity, and body mass index and a total of 257,859 person-years follow-up on mortality. A total of 4,833 participants died, of these 1,075 from coronary heart disease and 1,552 of cancer. Compared with non-drinkers, light drinkers who avoided wine, had a relative risk of death from all causes of 0.90 (0.82-0.99) and those who drank wine had a relative risk of 0.66 (0.55-0.77). Heavy drinkers who avoided wine were at higher risk of death from all causes than were heavy drinkers who included wine in their alcohol intake. Wine drinkers had significantly lower mortality from both coronary heart disease and cancer than did non-wine drinkers (p = 0.007 and p = 0.004, respectively). In conclusion, wine intake may have a beneficial effect on all cause mortality that is additive to that of alcohol. This effect may be attributable to a reduction in death from both coronary heart disease and cancer.

  12. Manatee mortality in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignucci-Giannoni, A. A.; Montoya-Ospina, R. A.; Jimenez-Marrero, N. M.; Rodriguez-Lopez, M.; Williams, E.H.; Bonde, R.K.

    2000-01-01

    The most pressing problem in the effective management of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Puerto Rico is mortality due to human activities. We assessed 90 cases of manatee strandings in Puerto Rico based on historical data and a coordinated carcass salvage effort from 1990 through 1995. We determined patterns of mortality, including type of event, condition of carcasses, spatial and temporal distribution, gender, size/age class, and the cause of death. The spatial distribution of stranding events was not uniform, with the north, northeast, and south coasts having the highest numbers. Six clusters representing the highest incidence included the areas of Fajardo and Ceiba, Bahia de Jobos, Toa Baja, Guayanilla, Cabo Rojo, and Rio Grande to Luquillo. The number of reported cases has increased at an average rate of 9.6%/yr since 1990. The seasonality of stranding events showed a bimodal pattern, from February through April and in August and September. Most identified causes of death were due to human interaction, especially captures and watercraft collisions. Natural causes usually involved dependent calves. From 1990 through 1995, most deaths were attributed to watercraft collisions. A reduction in anthropogenic mortality of this endangered species can be accomplished only through education and a proactive management and conservation plan that includes law enforcement, mortality assessment, scientific research, rescue and rehabilitation, and inter- and intraagency cooperation.

  13. Infant Mortality: An American Tragedy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Christiane B.

    1990-01-01

    Assesses the complex problem of infant deaths in America and reviews the policy options before the nation. High infant mortality rates have been attributed to population heterogeneity, poverty, or differences in the way health services are organized. Links health policy issues to the larger issue of social and economic equity. (AF)

  14. Mortality among California highway workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maizlish, N; Beaumont, J; Singleton, J

    1988-01-01

    Standardized proportional mortality ratios (PMR) were computed for a population of highway workers. Hazards of highway maintenance work include exposure to solvents, herbicides, asphalt and welding fumes, diesel and auto exhaust, asbestos, abrasive dusts, hazardous material spills, and moving motor vehicles. Underlying cause of death was obtained for 1,570 workers who separated from the California Department of Transportation between 1970 and 1983, and who died in California between 1970 and 1983 (inclusive). Among 1,260 white males, the major findings were statistically significant excesses of cancers of digestive organs (PMR = 128), skin (PMR = 218), lymphopoietic cancer (PMR = 157), benign neoplasms (PMR = 343), motor vehicle accidents (PMR = 141), and suicide (PMR = 154). Black males (N = 66) experienced nonsignificant excesses of cancer of the digestive organs (PMR = 191) and arteriosclerotic heart disease (PMR = 143). Among 168 white females, deaths from lung cancer (PMR = 189) and suicide (PMR = 215) were elevated. White male retirees, a subgroup with 5 or more years of service, experienced excess mortality due to cancers of the colon (PMR = 245), skin (PMR = 738), brain (PMR = 556), and lymphosarcomas and reticulosarcomas (PMR = 514). Deaths from external causes (PMR = 135) and cirrhosis of the liver (PMR = 229) were elevated among white males with a last job in landscape maintenance. White males whose last job was highway maintenance experienced a deficit in mortality from circulatory diseases (PMR = 83) and excess mortality from emphysema (PMR = 250) and motor vehicle accidents (PMR = 196). Further epidemiologic and industrial hygiene studies are needed to confirm the apparent excess mortality and to quantify occupational and nonoccupational exposures. However, reduction of recognized hazards among highway maintenance workers is a prudent precautionary measure.

  15. Marital status, health and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robards, James; Evandrou, Maria; Falkingham, Jane; Vlachantoni, Athina

    2012-12-01

    Marital status and living arrangements, along with changes in these in mid-life and older ages, have implications for an individual's health and mortality. Literature on health and mortality by marital status has consistently identified that unmarried individuals generally report poorer health and have a higher mortality risk than their married counterparts, with men being particularly affected in this respect. With evidence of increasing changes in partnership and living arrangements in older ages, with rising divorce amongst younger cohorts offsetting the lower risk of widowhood, it is important to consider the implications of such changes for health in later life. Within research which has examined changes in marital status and living arrangements in later life a key distinction has been between work using cross-sectional data and that which has used longitudinal data. In this context, two key debates have been the focus of research; firstly, research pointing to a possible selection of less healthy individuals into singlehood, separation or divorce, while the second debate relates to the extent to which an individual's transitions earlier in the life course in terms of marital status and living arrangements have a differential impact on their health and mortality compared with transitions over shorter time periods. After reviewing the relevant literature, this paper argues that in order to fully account for changes in living arrangements as a determinant of health and mortality transitions, future research will increasingly need to consider a longer perspective and take into account transitions in living arrangements throughout an individual's life course rather than simply focussing at one stage of the life course. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Gong

    Full Text Available Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra, has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days plus conventional therapy (XBJ group. Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02 compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001 compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all P<0.05, but these values were significant improved in the XBJ group (all P<0.05. Only one patient had skin rash with itch within 30 minutes after injection and no severe adverse events were found in the XBJ group. In conclusion, XBJ treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  17. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Ping; Lu, Zhidan; Xing, Jing; Wang, Na; Zhang, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ) injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra), has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group) and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days) plus conventional therapy (XBJ group). Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02) compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001) compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all Ptreatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  18. Mortality of Hanford radiation workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1980-01-01

    Mortality from all causes for white males employed at Hanford for at least two years is 75 percent of that expected on the basis of US vital statistics. Mortality from cancer is 85 percent of that expected. These results are typical of a working population. Neither death from all causes nor death from all cancer types shows a positive correlation with external radiation exposures. Myeloid leukemia, the disease that several studies have found to be associated most strongly with radiation exposure, is not correlated with external radiation exposure of Hanford workers. Two specific cancers, multiple myeloma and to a lesser extent cancer of the pancreas, were found to be positively correlated with radiation exposure. The correlations identified result entirely from a small number of deaths (3 each for multiple myeloma and cancer of the pancreas) with cumulative exposure greater than 15 rem

  19. Classification differences and maternal mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salanave, B; Bouvier-Colle, M H; Varnoux, N

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To compare the ways maternal deaths are classified in national statistical offices in Europe and to evaluate the ways classification affects published rates. METHODS: Data on pregnancy-associated deaths were collected in 13 European countries. Cases were classified by a European panel....... This change was substantial in three countries (P statistical offices appeared to attribute fewer deaths to obstetric causes. In the other countries, no differences were detected. According to official published data, the aggregated maternal mortality rate for participating countries was 7.7 per...... of experts into obstetric or non-obstetric causes. An ICD-9 code (International Classification of Diseases) was attributed to each case. These were compared to the codes given in each country. Correction indices were calculated, giving new estimates of maternal mortality rates. SUBJECTS: There were...

  20. Physical Inactivity and Mortality Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kokkinos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years a plethora of epidemiologic evidence accumulated supports a strong, independent and inverse, association between physical activity and the fitness status of an individual and mortality in apparently healthy individuals and diseased populations. These health benefits are realized at relatively low fitness levels and increase with higher physical activity patterns or fitness status in a dose-response fashion. The risk reduction is at least in part attributed to the favorable effect of exercise or physical activity on the cardiovascular risk factors, namely, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and obesity. In this review, we examine evidence from epidemiologic and interventional studies in support of the association between exercise and physical activity and health. In addition, we present the exercise effects on the aforementioned risk factors. Finally, we include select dietary approaches and their impact on risk factors and overall mortality risk.

  1. Survival curves to support quality improvement in hospitals with excess 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction, cerebral stroke and hip fracture: a before-after study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoffersen, Doris Tove; Helgeland, Jon; Waage, Halfrid Persdatter; Thalamus, Jacob; Clemens, Dirk; Lindman, Anja Schou; Rygh, Liv Helen; Tjomsland, Ole

    2015-03-25

    To evaluate survival curves (Kaplan-Meier) as a means of identifying areas in the clinical pathway amenable to quality improvement. Observational before-after study. In Norway, annual public reporting of nationwide 30-day in-and-out-of-hospital mortality (30D) for three medical conditions started in 2011: first time acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and hip fracture; reported for 2009. 12 of 61 hospitals had statistically significant lower/higher mortality compared with the hospital mean. Three hospitals with significantly higher mortality requested detailed analyses for quality improvement purposes: Telemark Hospital Trust Skien (AMI and stroke), Østfold Hospital Trust Fredrikstad (stroke), Innlandet Hospital Trust Gjøvik (hip fracture). Survival curves, crude and risk-adjusted 30D before (2008-2009) and after (2012-2013). Unadjusted survival curves for the outlier hospitals were compared to curves based on pooled data from the other hospitals for the 30-day period 2008-2009. For patients admitted with AMI (Skien), stroke (Fredrikstad) and hip fracture (Gjøvik), the curves suggested increased mortality from the initial part of the clinical pathway. For stroke (Skien), increased mortality appeared after about 8 days. The curve profiles were thought to reflect suboptimal care in various phases in the clinical pathway. This informed improvement efforts. For 2008-2009, hospital-specific curves differed from other hospitals: borderline significant for AMI (p=0.064), highly significant (p≤0.005) for the remainder. After intervention, no difference was found (p>0.188). Before-after comparison of the curves within each hospital revealed a significant change for Fredrikstad (p=0.006). For the three hospitals, crude 30D declined and they were non-outliers for risk-adjusted 30D for 2013. Survival curves as a supplement to 30D may be useful for identifying suboptimal care in the clinical pathway, and thus informing design of quality improvement projects

  2. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  3. Mortality of nitrate fertiliser workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbagh, S; Forman, D; Bryson, D; Stratton, I; Doll, R

    1986-01-01

    An epidemiological cohort study was conducted to investigate the mortality patterns among a group of workers engaged in the production of nitrate based fertilisers. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that individuals exposed to high concentrations of nitrates might be at increased risk of developing cancers, particularly gastric cancer. A total of 1327 male workers who had been employed in the production of fertilisers between 1946 and 1981 and who had been occupationally exposed to nitrates for at least one year were followed up until 1 March 1981. In total, 304 deaths were observed in this group and these were compared with expected numbers calculated from mortality rates in the northern region of England, where the factory was located. Analysis was also carried out separately for a subgroup of the cohort who had been heavily exposed to nitrates--that is, working in an environment likely to contain more than 10 mg nitrate/m3 for a year or longer. In neither the entire cohort nor the subgroup was any significant excess observed for all causes of mortality or for mortality from any of five broad categories of cause or from four specific types of cancer. A small excess of lung cancer was noted more than 20 years after first exposure in men heavily exposed for more than 10 years. That men were exposed to high concentrations of nitrate was confirmed by comparing concentrations of nitrates in the saliva of a sample of currently employed men with control men, employed at the same factory but not in fertiliser production. The men exposed to nitrate had substantially raised concentrations of nitrate in their saliva compared with both controls within the industry and with men in the general population and resident nearby. The results of this study therefore weight against the idea that exposure to nitrates in the environment leads to the formation in vivo of material amounts of carcinogens. PMID:3015194

  4. Macroeconomic Conditions, Health and Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher J. Ruhm

    2004-01-01

    Although health is conventionally believed to deteriorate during macroeconomic downturns, the empirical evidence supporting this view is quite weak and comes from studies containing methodological shortcomings that are difficult to remedy. Recent research that better controls for many sources of omitted variables bias instead suggests that mortality decreases and physical health improves when the economy temporarily weakens. This partially reflects reductions in external sources of death, suc...

  5. Fifty consecutive pancreatectomies without mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enio Campos Amico

    Full Text Available Objective: to report the group's experience with a series of patients undergoing pancreatic resection presenting null mortality rates. Methods: we prospectively studied 50 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic resections for peri-ampullary or pancreatic diseases. Main local complications were defined according to international criteria. In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring in the first 90 postoperative days. Results: patients' age ranged between 16 and 90 years (average: 53.3. We found anemia (Hb < 12g/dl and preoperative jaundice in 38% and 40% of cases, respectively. Most patients presented with peri-ampullary tumors (66%. The most common surgical procedure was the Kausch - Whipple operation (70%. Six patients (12% needed to undergo resection of a segment of the mesenteric-portal axis. The mean operative time was 445.1 minutes. Twenty two patients (44% showed no clinical complications and presented mean hospital stay of 10.3 days. The most frequent complications were pancreatic fistula (56%, delayed gastric emptying (17.1% and bleeding (16%. Conclusion : within the last three decades, pancreatic resection is still considered a challenge, especially outside large specialized centers. Nevertheless, even in our country (Brazil, teams seasoned in such procedure can reach low mortality rates.

  6. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Underlying Cause of Death

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The CDC WONDER Mortality - Underlying Cause of Death online database is a county-level national mortality and population database spanning the years since 1979. Data...

  7. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Multiple Cause of Death

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Mortality - Multiple Cause of Death data on CDC WONDER are county-level national mortality and population data spanning the years 1999-2009. Data are based on...

  8. ORIGINAL ARTICLE DIPHTHERIA MORTALITY IN NIGERIA: THE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Oboro VO

    AFRICAN JOURNAL OF CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY MAY 2011 ... RESULTS: Nine cases of diphtheria were seen and three mortalities were recorded giving a mortality rate ... tissue edema and airway obstruction by the.

  9. Infant Mortality and Asians and Pacific Islanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... infant mortality rates than the overall population, however statistics for Asian American subgroups are very limited for ... 1 0.4 Source: CDC 2015. Infant Mortality Statistics from the 2013 Period Linked Birth/Infant Death ...

  10. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Multiple Cause of Death

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Mortality - Multiple Cause of Death data on CDC WONDER are county-level national mortality and population data spanning the years 1999-2006. These data are...

  11. Continuing study of mortality in Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1979-10-01

    The mortality of workers at the Hanford Plant in southeastern Washington who have been exposed to penetrating external ionizing radiation is studied. Deaths are analyzed statistically and compared to standardized mortality ratios. Cancer deaths in particular are examined

  12. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  13. Mortality rates in people with intellectual disabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachael Williams

    2017-04-01

    National English data confirm that patients with ID have higher mortality rates than those without. Mortality rates for patients with ID were higher across all age/sex groups and causes, with almost half of deaths classified as avoidable.

  14. Computational Intelligence. Mortality Models for the Actuary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemse, W.J.

    2001-01-01

    This thesis applies computational intelligence to the field of actuarial (insurance) science. In particular, this thesis deals with life insurance where mortality modelling is important. Actuaries use ancient models (mortality laws) from the nineteenth century, for example Gompertz' and Makeham's

  15. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  16. Neonatal tetanus mortality in coastal Kenya

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P; Steinglass, R; Mutie, D M

    1993-01-01

    In a house-to-house survey in Kilifi District, Kenya, mothers of 2556 liveborn children were interviewed about neonatal mortality, especially from neonatal tetanus (NNT). The crude birth rate was 60.5 per 1000 population, the neonatal mortality rate 21.1 and the NNT mortality rate 3.1 per 1000 li...... indicates that over the past decade the surveyed area has greatly reduced neonatal and NNT mortality. Possible strategies for accelerated NNT control have been identified by the survey....

  17. [Mortality after the Second World War].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkovics, E

    1999-01-01

    Mortality trends in Hungary since the Second World War are analyzed. Two periods are distinguished; the first, from 1946 to 1966, was a period of declining mortality and increasing life expectancy, and the second, from 1966 until the present, a period of rising mortality and declining life expectancy, particularly for males, coupled with relatively stable mortality levels for females. The author analyzes differences in causes of death by age in these two periods. (ANNOTATION)

  18. GULF OF MEXICO AQUATIC MORTALITY NETWORK (GMNET)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Five U.S. states share the northern coast of the Gulf, and each has a program to monitor mortalities of aquatic organisms (fish, shellfish, birds). However, each state has different standards, procedures, and documentation of mortality events. The Gulf of Mexico Aquatic Mortality...

  19. Rise in maternal mortality in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schutte, J. M.; Steegers, E. A. P.; Schuitemaker, N. W. E.; Santema, J. G.; de Boer, K.; Pel, M.; Vermeulen, G.; Visser, W.; van Roosmalen, J.

    2010-01-01

    To assess causes, trends and substandard care factors in maternal mortality in the Netherlands. Design Confidential enquiry into the causes of maternal mortality. Nationwide in the Netherlands. 2,557,208 live births. Data analysis of all maternal deaths in the period 1993-2005. Maternal mortality.

  20. Plaice egg mortality: can we determine survivorschip?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Fox, C.J.; Nash, R.D.M.; O'Brien, C.M.

    2003-01-01

    The daily mortality rate of cohorts of plaice eggs in the Irish Sea is estimated throughout the spawning season in 1995 and 2000, using general additive models of egg production. Daily mortality (z) was found to vary between 0.15 and 0.29. Mortality rates declined through the season in 1995 but not

  1. Asthma mortality in Uruguay, 1984-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baluga, J C; Sueta, A; Ceni, M

    2001-08-01

    Asthma mortality rates have increased worldwide during the past several years despite the increased availability of new and effective medications. Few studies show reliable data from Latin American countries. To determine asthma mortality rates from 1984 to 1998 and to relate mortality to sales of asthma medications. We conducted a retrospective epidemiologic study in the total population of Uruguay. Data were obtained from the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Public Health. Trends in mortality rates were analyzed using linear regression procedures. Spearman rank correlations were used to relate mortality rates to sales of asthma medications. The mean overall mortality rate was 5.10 per 100,000 during the period 1984 to 1998, (range 6.08 to 3.39) and showed a decreasing trend (P = 0.001). During the period 1995 to 1998, a more pronounced decrease was observed (mean mortality rate, 4.10 per 100,000). In the 5- to 34-year-old age group the mean mortality rate was 0.43 (range 0.65 to 0.13). Similarly, the mortality rate in this age group decreased particularly in the 1994 to 1998 period (mean 0.19; P = 0.005). Finally, the mortality rate was inversely correlated with sales of inhaled corticosteroids; for the overall mortality rate, p = -0.71, P = 0.003; for 5- to 34-year-old age group, p = -0.63, P = 0.01. Although mortality attributable to asthma seems to be decreasing, the overall mortality rate is still high compared with more economically developed countries. A more pronounced decrease in asthma mortality has been seen in the 5- to 34-year-old group. At present, Uruguay is a Latin American country with a low rate of asthma mortality. This is probably related to the use of new therapies to treat asthma.

  2. Russian mortality beyond vital statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of routine data have established that the extreme mortality fluctuations among young and middle-aged men are the most important single component of both temporal changes in Russian life expectancy at birth and in the gap between male and female life expectancy. It is also responsible for the largest share of the life expectancy gap between Russia and other industrialised countries. A case-control study has been used to identify factors associated with mortality among men aged 20 to 55 in the five major cities of the Udmurt Republic in 1998-99. Men dying from external causes and circulatory disease are taken as cases. Matched controls were selected from men of the same age living in the same neighbourhood of residence. Information about characteristics of cases and controls was obtained by interviewing proxies who were family members or friends of the subjects. After exclusion of those deaths for which proxy informant could not be identified, a total of 205 circulatory disease and 333 external cause cases were included together with the same number of controls. Educational level was significantly associated with mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes in a crude analysis. However, this could largely be explained by adjustment for employment, marital status, smoking and alcohol consumption. Smoking was associated with mortality from circulatory disease (crude OR=2.44, 95% CI 1.36-4.36, this effect being slightly attenuated after adjustment for socio-economic factors and alcohol consumption. Unemployment was associated with a large increase in the risk of death from external causes (crude OR=3.63, 95% CI 2.17-6.08, an effect that was still substantial after adjustment for other variables (adjusted OR=2.52, 95% CI 1.43-4.43. A reported history of periods of heavy drinking was linked to both deaths from circulatory disease (crude OR=4.21, 95% CI 2.35-7.55 and external cause mortality (crude OR=2.65, 95% CI 1

  3. Human mortality improvement in evolutionary context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burger, Oskar; Baudisch, Annette; Vaupel, James W

    2012-01-01

    Life expectancy is increasing in most countries and has exceeded 80 in several, as low-mortality nations continue to make progress in averting deaths. The health and economic implications of mortality reduction have been given substantial attention, but the observed malleability of human mortality...... about 4 of the roughly 8,000 human generations that have ever lived. Moreover, mortality improvement in humans is on par with or greater than the reductions in mortality in other species achieved by laboratory selection experiments and endocrine pathway mutations. This observed plasticity in age...

  4. Mortality in Patients with Endogenous Cushing's Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javanmard, Pedram; Duan, Daisy; Geer, Eliza B

    2018-06-01

    Cushing's syndrome is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Cardiovascular events, sepsis, and thromboembolism are the leading causes of mortality. Patient's with Cushing's due to a pituitary adenoma and those with Cushing's due to benign adrenal adenoma have relatively good survival outcomes often mirroring that of the general population. Persistent or recurrent disease is associated with high mortality risk. Ectopic Cushing's syndrome and Cushing's due to adrenocortical carcinoma confer the highest mortality risk among Cushing's etiologies. Prompt diagnosis and treatment, and specific monitoring for and treatment of associated comorbidities are essential to decrease the burden of mortality from Cushing's. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluation of morbidity from mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiani, P; Massé, H; Aubenque, M

    1983-01-01

    The authors have attempted to measure morbidity involved in mortality, from French regional statistics of causes of death, for the 1968-1970 period. Particularly, they have estimated prevalence rates (proportion of patients at a given moment) and incidence rates (annual proportion of new patients). These rates have been assessed by sex, and for age groups: 15-44 years, 45-64 years, 65-74 years, 75 years and more, and for 18 leading causes of death, according to the International Classification of Diseases (1965). Statistics of causes of deaths have been corrected to take into account non specified causes of death.

  6. Morbidity and mortality following poliomyelitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kay, L; Nielsen, N M; Wanscher, B

    2017-01-01

    : Data from official registers for a cohort of 3606 Danes hospitalized for PM in the period 1940-1954 were compared with 13 762 age- and gender-matched controls. RESULTS: Compared with controls, mortality was moderately increased for both paralytic as well as non-paralytic PM cases; Hazard Ratio, 1.......31 (95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.44) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.19), respectively. Hospitalization rates were approximately 1.5 times higher among both paralytic and non-paralytic PM cases as compared with controls. Discharge diagnoses showed a broad spectrum of diseases. There were...

  7. Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palat Rao, Mukund; Davi, Nicole K.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Skees, Jerry; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Leland, Caroline; Lyon, Bradfield; Wang, Shih-Yu; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa

    2015-07-01

    Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000-2002, and 2009-2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November-February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July-September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013.

  8. Migrant mortality from diabetes mellitus across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Deboosere, Patrick; Stirbu, Irina

    2012-01-01

    ) is more affluent than the country of birth (COB). We obtained mortality data from 7 European countries. To assess migrant diabetes mortality, we used direct standardization and Poisson regression. First, migrant mortality was estimated for each country separately. Then, we merged the data from all......The first objective of this study was to determine and quantify variations in diabetes mortality by migrant status in different European countries. The second objective was to investigate the hypothesis that diabetes mortality is higher in migrant groups for whom the country of residence (COR...... mortality registers. Subsequently, to examine the second hypothesis, we introduced gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of COB in the models, as an indicator of socio-economic circumstances. The overall pattern shows higher diabetes mortality in migrant populations compared to local-born populations...

  9. Mortality study of lead workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, W C; Gaffey, W R

    1975-01-01

    The mortality of 7,032 men employed for one or more years in lead production facilities or battery plants was followed over a 23-year period, 1947-70. Lead absorption in many of these men was greatly in excess of currently accepted standards based upon urinary and blood lead concentrations available for a portion of the group. There were 1,356 deaths reported. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for all causes was 107 for smelter workers and 99 for battery plant workers. Death from neoplasms were in slight excess in smelters, but not significantly increased in battery plants. There were no excess deaths from kidney tumors. The SMR for cardiovascular-renal disease was 96 for smelter workers and 101 for battery plant workers. There was definitely no excess in deaths from either stroke or hypertensive heart disease; however, deaths classified as other hypertensive disease and unspecified nephritis or renal sclerosis were higher than expected. The life expectancy of lead workers was calculated to be approximately the same as that of all U.S. males.

  10. A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Katherine S L; Ludman, Peter F; Hulme, William; de Belder, Mark A; Stables, Rodney; Chowdhary, Saqib; Mamas, Mamas A; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E

    2016-05-01

    The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried out between 2007 and 2011 in England and Wales, with 30 day mortality provided by record linkage. Candidate variables were selected on the basis of clinical consensus and data quality. Procedures in 2012 were used to perform temporal validation of the model. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were: cardiogenic shock; dialysis; and the indication for PCI and the degree of urgency with which it was performed. The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.85 on the training data and 0.86 on validation. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit on development which was maintained on validation. We have created a contemporary model for PCI that encompasses a range of clinical risk, from stable elective PCI to emergency primary PCI and cardiogenic shock. The model is easy to apply and based on data reported in national registries. It has a high degree of discrimination and is well calibrated across the risk spectrum. The examination of key outcomes in PCI audit can be improved with this risk-adjusted model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

    2015-01-01

    Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Determinants of all cause mortality in Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genowska, Agnieszka; Jamiołkowski, Jacek; Szpak, Andrzej; Pajak, Andrzej

    2012-01-01

    The study objective was to evaluate quantitatively the relationship between demographic characteristics, socio-economic status and medical care resources with all cause mortality in Poland. Ecological study was performed using data for the population of 66 subregions of Poland, obtained from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The information on the determinants of health and all cause mortality covered the period from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2010. Results for the repeated measures were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations GEE model. In the model 16 independent variables describing health determinants were used, including 6 demographic variables, 6 socio-economic variables, 4 medical care variables. The dependent variable, was age standardized all cause mortality rate. There was a large variation in all cause mortality, demographic features, socio-economic characteristics, and medical care resources by subregion. All cause mortality showed weak associations with demographic features, among which only the increased divorce rate was associated with higher mortality rate. Increased education level, salaries, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, local government expenditures per capita and the number of non-governmental organizations per 10 thousand population was associated with decrease in all cause mortality. The increase of unemployment rate was related with a decrease of all cause mortality. Beneficial relationship between employment of medical staff and mortality was observed. Variation in mortality from all causes in Poland was explained partly by variation in socio-economic determinants and health care resources.

  13. Infant Mortality and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander > Infant Health & Mortality Infant Mortality and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders While the overall ... data for this ethnic group is limited. Infant Mortality Rate Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live ...

  14. Infant Mortality and American Indians/Alaska Natives

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... American Indian/Alaska Native > Infant Health & Mortality Infant Mortality and American Indians/Alaska Natives American Indian/Alaska ... as compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Infant Mortality Rate: Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live ...

  15. What Is the Best Way to Measure Surgical Quality? Comparing the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program versus Traditional Morbidity and Mortality Conferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jacques X; Song, Diana; Bedford, Julie; Bucevska, Marija; Courtemanche, Douglas J; Arneja, Jugpal S

    2016-04-01

    Morbidity and mortality conferences have played a traditional role in tracking complications. Recently, the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatrics (ACS NSQIP-P) has gained popularity as a risk-adjusted means of addressing quality assurance. The purpose of this article is to report an analysis of the two methodologies used within pediatric plastic surgery to determine the best way to manage quality. ACS NSQIP-P and morbidity and mortality data were extracted for 2012 and 2013 at a quaternary care institution. Overall complication rates were compared statistically, segregated by type and severity, followed by a subset comparison of ACS NSQIP-P-eligible cases only. Concordance and discordance rates between the two methodologies were determined. One thousand two hundred sixty-one operations were performed in the study period. Only 51.4 percent of cases were ACS NSQIP-P eligible. The overall complication rates of ACS NSQIP-P (6.62 percent) and morbidity and mortality conferences (6.11 percent) were similar (p = 0.662). Comparing for only ACS NSQIP-P-eligible cases also yielded a similar rate (6.62 percent versus 5.71 percent; p = 0.503). Although different complications are tracked, the concordance rate for morbidity and mortality and ACS NSQIP-P was 35.1 percent and 32.5 percent, respectively. The ACS NSQIP-P database is able to accurately track complication rates similarly to morbidity and mortality conferences, although it samples only half of all procedures. Although both systems offer value, limitations exist, such as differences in definitions and purpose. Because of the rigor of the ACS NSQIP-P, we recommend that it be expanded to include currently excluded cases and an extension of the study interval.

  16. Maternal Mortality – A Challenge?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shital G. Sonone

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : The current maternal mortality rate (MMR in Maharashtra is 104/100000 live births, ranking 3rd in India. There is scope for reducing it as majority of the causes of MMR are preventable and curable. Aims and Objectives: To study the sociodemographic profile and causes of maternal deaths at Dr. V. M. Govt. Medical College, Solapur. Material and Methods: The study population included all deliveries i.e. women admitted in the hospital during pregnancy, child-birth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy from any cause related to or aggravated due to pregnancy during the period of 2 years from 1st August 2009 to 31st July 2011. IPD case records and autopsy reports of all maternal deaths were taken and various variables were studied. The present study is prospective study of maternal mortality conducted in Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Dr. V. M. Medical College Solapur. Cases were distributed ac-cording to their age, literacy rate, residence,socioeconomic status, ante-natal care, gestational age, gravida/parity, place of referral, pregnancy outcome, and place of delivery, perinatal outcome and etiological factors. This study also suggests the measures to reduce maternal mortality. Results: The total number of live births during the study period were 13,188 and total number of maternal deaths were 63 and MMR was 477 per 1, 00,000 live births. In the maternal deaths studied, 1/3rd of the women were illiterate, half of the women belonged to urban slum areas and of lower socioeconomic class.1/3rd of the deaths occurred in primigravida,within 24 hrs from admission, 58.73% of the patients were referred from outside. Out of that 86.49% of women were sent from private hospital and died in post partum period, having poor perinatal outcome. Haemorrhage (28.57% and hypertension (12.69% are two direct causes and severe anemia (33.33% is most common in direct cause of maternal death in our study.

  17. Mortality among sulfide ore miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlman, K.; Koskela, R.S.; Kuikka, P.; Koponen, M.; Annanmaeki, M.

    1991-01-01

    Lung cancer mortality was studied during 1965-1985 in Outokumpu township in North Karelia, where an old copper mine was located. Age-specific lung cancer death rates (1968-1985) were higher among the male population of Outokumpu than among the North Karelian male population of the same age excluding the Outokumpu district (p less than .01). Of all 106 persons who died from lung cancer during 1965-1985 in Outokumpu township, 47 were miners of the old mine, 39 of whom had worked there for at least three years and been heavily exposed to radon daughters and silica dust. The study cohort consisted of 597 miners first employed between 1954 and 1973 by a new copper mine and a zinc mine, and employed there for at least 3 years. The period of follow-up was 1954-1986. The number of person-years was 14,782. The total number of deaths was 102; the expected number was 72.8 based on the general male population and 97.8 based on the mortality of the male population of North Karelia. The excess mortality among miners was due mainly to ischemic heart disease (IHD); 44 were observed, the expected number was 22.1, based on the general male population, and the North Karelian expected number was 31.2 (p less than .05). Of the 44 miners who died from IHD, 20 were drillers or chargers exposed to nitroglycerin in dynamite charges, but also to several simultaneous stress factors including PAHs, noise, vibration, heavy work, accident risk, and working alone. Altogether 16 tumors were observed in the cohort. Ten of these were lung cancers, the expected number being 4.3. Miners who had died from lung cancer were 35-64 years old, and had entered mining work between 1954 and 1960. Five of the ten lung cancer cases came from the zinc mine (1.7 expected). Three of them were conductors of diesel-powered ore trains

  18. Data base on animal mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, T.D.

    1987-01-01

    A data base on animal mortality has been compiled. The literature on LD 50 and the dose-response function for radiation-induced lethality, reflect several inconsistencies - primarily due to dose assignments and to analytical methods and/or mathematical models used. Thus, in order to make the individual experiments which were included in the data base as consistent as possible, an estimate of the uniform dose received by the bone marrow in each treatment group was made so that the interspecies differences are minimized. The LD 50 was recalculated using a single estimation procedure for all studies for which sufficient experimental data are available. For small animals such as mice, the dose to the hematopoietic system is approximately equal to the treatment dose, but for large animals the marrow dose may be about half of the treatment dose

  19. Cancer mortality around nuclear sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, C.; LaPlanche, A.

    1991-01-01

    Studies (including that of Gardner) of cancer mortality around individual nuclear sites in Britain show an excess of childhood leukemia near such sites. These have been attributed to radioactive discharges, increased radiation doses and radiation doses to the fathers of affected children. However, no such excess has been found in studies in other countries including France, Canada and the USA where similar radiation doses could have been received. Several explanations of this discrepancy are reviewed. It is possible that results from the small UK samples may be due to chance. A difference in external and internal doses for reprocessing plant workers may also be a factor. The possibility of a viral infection for leukemia spreading in new town populations is also mentioned. Whilst the studies in other countries are reassuring, the childhood leukemia excesses found in Britain round nuclear sites are still unexplained. (UK)

  20. Maternal mortality following caesarean sections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, K; Kundu, S; Mandal, G S

    1979-08-01

    A study of 26 maternal deaths following 3647 caesarean sections was conducted in Eden Hospital from 1974-1977. During the time period there were 35,544 births and 308 total maternal deaths (8.74/1000). Indications for Caesarean sections included: 1) abnormal presentation; 2) cephalopelvic disproportion; 3) toxemia; 4) prolonged labor; 5) fetal distress; and 6) post-caesarean pregnancies. Highest mortality rates were among cephalopelvic disproportion, toxemia, and prolonged labor patients. 38.4% of the patients died due to septicaemia and peritonitis, but other deaths were due to preclampsia, shock, and hemorrhage. Proper antenatal care may have prevented anemia and preclampsia and treated other pre-existing or superimposed diseases.

  1. Air pollution and human mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lave, L B [Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (USA). Dept. of Economics; Seskin, E P [Department of Commerce, Washington, DC (USA). Environmental and Nonmarket Economics Div.

    1979-11-01

    Investigations have been made on the quantitative relationship between air pollution and human mortality. While primary focus has been on suspended particulates and sulfates from stationary sources of pollution, the evidence relating to air pollutants attributed to mobile sources was also examined. Using statistical analyses for a large number of US metropolitan areas, it was concluded that the benefits associated with a substantial abatement of air pollution from stationary sources are greater than the costs of such abatement. In contrast, the situation for mobile sources-chiefly cars and trucks is less clear-cut. That is, the costs of implementing the currently mandated US standards for automobile emissions probably exeed their potential health benefits.

  2. Cancer mortality studied by Dounreay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, R.; Smith, N.D.

    1986-01-01

    A report is given of a cancer mortality study in Caithness, Sutherland, Orkney and Shetland between 1958 and 1982. For Caithness and Sutherland, the numbers of male deaths from all kinds of cancer was significantly less than the numbers expected from figures for Scotland as a whole; for females no difference was observed; the parish of Latheron showed an excess of leukaemia cases. For Orkney and Shetland, the total number of cancer deaths for both sexes was significantly less than for Scotland as a whole. In Shetland, there was an excess of lymphatic leukaemia in Northmaven based on four deaths observed. In Orkney, one parish showed an excess of lymphatic and haematopoietic cancers. (UK)

  3. Maternal mortality: a global overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choolani, M; Ratnam, S S

    1995-02-01

    Reduction of maternal mortality in developing countries is possible through elimination of unsafe abortion, active management of labor, appropriate management of pregnancy complications, and availability of adequate facilities. Prevention and early recognition are key factors in preventing maternal deaths due to ruptured uteri. A well equipped hospital is the appropriate place for delivery of mothers with a history of previous cesarean sections, a grossly contracted pelvis, previous myomectomies, previous multiple births, and previous abnormal births or complications during delivery. Complicated procedures, use of oxytocins, and administration of anesthesia should be performed with experienced, trained medical personnel. Surveillance of and correction for anemia should occur during the course of the pregnancy. Infections can be controlled with tetanus toxoid immunization and use of chest X-rays. The health care system should be tiered with primary health care services located in suburbs and rural districts. Services should be situated to account for population distribution, extent of maternal mortality in the region, transportation facilities, and the nearest secondary hospital. Birthing homes with sanitary facilities are an option for rural districts. A two-way referral system should be established between the primary, secondary, and tertiary level hospitals. Audits should be conducted as a means of checking for needed improvements in the system. Planning that includes proper roads, transportation, and communication facilities is important. Funding can come in the form of money, materials, and manpower. Safe motherhood requires the commitment of local people and local governments. The first step in a safe motherhood program is creating awareness among the political and economic elite. Governments are encouraged to shift resources from the military to housing, transportation, communications, education, and health during peace-times. Local professional associations

  4. Birth dimensions, parental mortality, and mortality in early adult age: a cohort study of Danish men born in 1953

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Osler, Merete

    2004-01-01

    liver cirrhosis. Offspring birth dimensions showed an inverse association with parental mortality, which was most pronounced for maternal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The strong inverse association between birth dimensions and adult mortality, but lack of association between ponderal index and mortality...

  5. Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

    2017-01-01

    Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

  6. Air pollution and mortality in Barcelona.

    OpenAIRE

    Sunyer, J; Castellsagué, J; Sáez, M; Tobias, A; Antó, J M

    1996-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVES: Studies conducted in Barcelona reported a short term relation between daily air pollutant values and emergency department admissions for exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and asthma. Air pollution in Barcelona is mainly generated by vehicle exhaust and is below the World Health Organization air quality guidelines. The acute relation between air pollution and mortality was assessed. DESIGN: Daily variations in total mortality, mortality in subjects older ...

  7. Nurse staffing and education and hospital mortality in nine European countries: a retrospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Linda H; Sloane, Douglas M; Bruyneel, Luk; Van den Heede, Koen; Griffiths, Peter; Busse, Reinhard; Diomidous, Marianna; Kinnunen, Juha; Kózka, Maria; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; McHugh, Matthew D; Moreno-Casbas, M T; Rafferty, Anne Marie; Schwendimann, Rene; Scott, P Anne; Tishelman, Carol; van Achterberg, Theo; Sermeus, Walter

    2014-05-24

    Austerity measures and health-system redesign to minimise hospital expenditures risk adversely affecting patient outcomes. The RN4CAST study was designed to inform decision making about nursing, one of the largest components of hospital operating expenses. We aimed to assess whether differences in patient to nurse ratios and nurses' educational qualifications in nine of the 12 RN4CAST countries with similar patient discharge data were associated with variation in hospital mortality after common surgical procedures. For this observational study, we obtained discharge data for 422,730 patients aged 50 years or older who underwent common surgeries in 300 hospitals in nine European countries. Administrative data were coded with a standard protocol (variants of the ninth or tenth versions of the International Classification of Diseases) to estimate 30 day in-hospital mortality by use of risk adjustment measures including age, sex, admission type, 43 dummy variables suggesting surgery type, and 17 dummy variables suggesting comorbidities present at admission. Surveys of 26,516 nurses practising in study hospitals were used to measure nurse staffing and nurse education. We used generalised estimating equations to assess the effects of nursing factors on the likelihood of surgical patients dying within 30 days of admission, before and after adjusting for other hospital and patient characteristics. An increase in a nurses' workload by one patient increased the likelihood of an inpatient dying within 30 days of admission by 7% (odds ratio 1·068, 95% CI 1·031-1·106), and every 10% increase in bachelor's degree nurses was associated with a decrease in this likelihood by 7% (0·929, 0·886-0·973). These associations imply that patients in hospitals in which 60% of nurses had bachelor's degrees and nurses cared for an average of six patients would have almost 30% lower mortality than patients in hospitals in which only 30% of nurses had bachelor's degrees and nurses cared

  8. Nurse staffing, medical staffing and mortality in Intensive Care: An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Elizabeth; Barron, David N; Harrison, David; Rafferty, Anne Marie; Rowan, Kathy; Sanderson, Colin

    2014-05-01

    To investigate whether the size of the workforce (nurses, doctors and support staff) has an impact on the survival chances of critically ill patients both in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in the hospital. Investigations of intensive care outcomes suggest that some of the variation in patient survival rates might be related to staffing levels and workload, but the evidence is still equivocal. Information about patients, including the outcome of care (whether the patient lived or died) came from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme. An Audit Commission survey of ICUs conducted in 1998 gave information about staffing levels. The merged dataset had information on 65 ICUs and 38,168 patients. This is currently the best available dataset for testing the relationship between staffing and outcomes in UK ICUs. A cross-sectional, retrospective, risk adjusted observational study. Multivariable, multilevel logistic regression. ICU and in-hospital mortality. After controlling for patient characteristics and workload we found that higher numbers of nurses per bed (odds ratio: 0.90, 95% confidence interval: [0.83, 0.97]) and higher numbers of consultants (0.85, [0.76, 0.95]) were associated with higher survival rates. Further exploration revealed that the number of nurses had the greatest impact on patients at high risk of death (0.98, [0.96, 0.99]) whereas the effect of medical staffing was unchanged across the range of patient acuity (1.00, [0.97, 1.03]). No relationship between patient outcomes and the number of support staff (administrative, clerical, technical and scientific staff) was found. Distinguishing between direct care and supernumerary nurses and restricting the analysis to patients who had been in the unit for more than 8h made little difference to the results. Separate analysis of in-unit and in-hospital survival showed that the clinical workforce in intensive care had a greater impact on ICU mortality than on

  9. Infection increases mortality in necrotizing pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werge, Mikkel; Novovic, Srdjan; Schmidt, Palle N

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To assess the influence of infection on mortality in necrotizing pancreatitis. METHODS: Eligible prospective and retrospective studies were identified through manual and electronic searches (August 2015). The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Meta...... sterile necrosis and organ failure was associated with a mortality of 19.8%. If the patients had infected necrosis without organ failure the mortality was 1.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with necrotizing pancreatitis are more than twice as likely to die if the necrosis becomes infected. Both organ failure...... and infected necrosis increase mortality in necrotizing pancreatitis....

  10. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-16

    rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the

  11. Performance of hospitals according to the ESC ACCA quality indicators and 30-day mortality for acute myocardial infarction: national cohort study using the United Kingdom Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebb, Owen; Hall, Marlous; Fox, Keith A A; Dondo, Tatendashe B; Timmis, Adam; Bueno, Hector; Schiele, François; Gale, Chris P

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the application of the European Society of Cardiology Acute Cardiovascular Care Association quality indicators (QI) for acute myocardial infarction for the study of hospital performance and 30-day mortality. National cohort study (n = 118,075 patients, n = 211 hospitals, MINAP registry), 2012-13. Overall, 16 of the 20 QIs could be calculated. Eleven QIs had a significant inverse association with GRACE risk adjusted 30-day mortality (all P < 0.005). The association with the greatest magnitude was high attainment of the composite opportunity-based QI (80-100%) vs. zero attainment (odds ratio 0.04, 95% confidence interval 0.04-0.05, P < 0.001), increasing attainment from low (0.42, 0.37- 0.49, P < 0.001) to intermediate (0.15, 0.13-0.16, P < 0.001) was significantly associated with a reduced risk of 30-day mortality. A 1% increase in attainment of this QI was associated with a 3% reduction in 30-day mortality (0.97, 0.97-0.97, P < 0.001). The QI with the widest hospital variation was 'fondaparinux received among NSTEMI' (interquartile range 84.7%) and least variation 'centre organisation' (0.0%), with seven QIs depicting minimal variation (<11%). GRACE risk score adjusted 30-day mortality varied by hospital (median 6.7%, interquartile range 5.4-7.9%). Eleven QIs were significantly inversely associated with 30-day mortality. Increasing patient attainment of the composite quality indicator was the most powerful predictor; a 1% increase in attainment represented a 3% decrease in 30-day standardised mortality. The ESC QIs for acute myocardial infarction are applicable in a large health system and have the potential to improve care and reduce unwarranted variation in death from acute myocardial infarction. © The Author 2017. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology

  12. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify...... with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other...... locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted...

  13. Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Morbidity, and Economic Costs (SAMMEC) - Smoking-Attributable Mortality (SAM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2005-2009. SAMMEC - Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Morbidity, and Economic Costs. Smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) is the number of deaths caused by cigarette...

  14. Hyperprolactinemia and the Association with All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Hyperprolactinemia has been suspected to increase mortality risk, but the available data are conflicting. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between hyperprolactinemia and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among patients referred for assessment of prolactin......-cause mortality (95% CI 1.22-2.82) and 2.55 (95% CI 1.43-4.55) for cardiovascular mortality. The IRR for all-cause mortality was reduced to 1.37 (0.90-2.08) when adjusted for the use of antipsychotic medication. The association between hyperprolactinemia and cardiovascular mortality remained after adjusting...... for confounders, for example, chronic renal failure, diabetes, and antipsychotic medication. In females, hyperprolactinemia was not associated with all-cause mortality (IRR 1.45; CI 0.86-2.47) or cardiovascular mortality (IRR 0.58; CI 0.14-2.39). In conclusion, hyperprolactinemia was associated with increased...

  15. Assessment of hospital performance with a case-mix standardized mortality model using an existing administrative database in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyata, Hiroaki; Hashimoto, Hideki; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Matsuda, Shinya

    2010-05-19

    Few studies have examined whether risk adjustment is evenly applicable to hospitals with various characteristics and case-mix. In this study, we applied a generic prediction model to nationwide discharge data from hospitals with various characteristics. We used standardized data of 1,878,767 discharged patients provided by 469 hospitals from July 1 to October 31, 2006. We generated and validated a case-mix in-hospital mortality prediction model using 50/50 split sample validation. We classified hospitals into two groups based on c-index value (hospitals with c-index > or = 0.8; hospitals with c-index /=0.8 and were classified as the higher c-index group. A significantly higher proportion of hospitals in the lower c-index group were specialized hospitals and hospitals with convalescent wards. The model fits well to a group of hospitals with a wide variety of acute care events, though model fit is less satisfactory for specialized hospitals and those with convalescent wards. Further sophistication of the generic prediction model would be recommended to obtain optimal indices to region specific conditions.

  16. [Mortality in the perinatal period].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez Avila, J H; Villalobos Olivas, A; Contreras Lemus, J

    1980-01-01

    A comparative study was conducted between 1978-79 in the pediatric department of the Mexican General Hospital to investigate social and physiopathological conditions leading to neonatal mortality. 100 newborn infants who had survived the first week of life were compared to 100 who had died. Social variables such as maternal age, education, socioeconomic status, marital status, and prenatal care were investigated, as well as physiopathological characteristics such as toxemia, length of gestation, diabetes, bleeding during the last trimester of pregnancy, type of presentation at delivery, congenital malformations, length of delivery, fetal cardiac frequency, and Apgar scores. Considerable social risk factors were identified in unmarried mothers (45.2% of those whose babies died, as compared to 21.4% in the control group), and lack of prenatal care (73.7% versus 41.1%). Physiopathological risk factors were low birth weight (80.5% versus 22%), probable diabetes of the mother (57.3% versus 8.7%), gestation of less than 37 weeks (70.4% versus 17.7%), low Apgar scores at 5 minutes of life (71.0% versus 10.3%), and fetal bradycardia (68.3% versus 6.3% in the control group). Abdominal or cesarean delivery seemed to represent a lesser risk than the use of forceps or the need for manual maneuvers. The need for comprehensive prenatal care programs, especially among the economically poor, is stressed.

  17. Traumatic brain injury in England and Wales: prospective audit of epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, T; Helmy, A; Bouamra, O; Woodford, M; Lecky, F; Hutchinson, P J

    2016-11-24

    To provide a comprehensive assessment of the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) relating to epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality across specialist units. The Trauma Audit and Research Network collects data prospectively on patients suffering trauma across England and Wales. We analysed all data collected on patients with TBI between April 2014 and June 2015. Data were collected on patients presenting to emergency departments across 187 hospitals including 26 with specialist neurosurgical services, incorporating factors previously identified in the Ps14 multivariate logistic regression (Ps14 n ) model multivariate TBI outcome prediction model. The frequency and timing of secondary transfer to neurosurgical centres was assessed. We identified 15 820 patients with TBI presenting to neurosurgical centres directly (6258), transferred from a district hospital to a neurosurgical centre (3682) and remaining in a district general hospital (5880). The commonest mechanisms of injury were falls in the elderly and road traffic collisions in the young, which were more likely to present in coma. In severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8), the median time from admission to imaging with CT scan is 0.5 hours. Median time to craniotomy from admission is 2.6 hours and median time to intracranial pressure monitoring is 3 hours. The most frequently documented complication of severe TBI is bronchopneumonia in 5% of patients. Risk-adjusted W scores derived from the Ps14 n model indicate that no neurosurgical unit fell outside the 3 SD limits on a funnel plot. We provide the first comprehensive report of the management of TBI in England and Wales, including data from all neurosurgical units. These data provide transparency and suggests equity of access to high-quality TBI management provided in England and Wales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Traumatic brain injury in England and Wales: prospective audit of epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, T; Bouamra, O; Woodford, M; Lecky, F; Hutchinson, P J

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To provide a comprehensive assessment of the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) relating to epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality across specialist units. Design The Trauma Audit and Research Network collects data prospectively on patients suffering trauma across England and Wales. We analysed all data collected on patients with TBI between April 2014 and June 2015. Setting Data were collected on patients presenting to emergency departments across 187 hospitals including 26 with specialist neurosurgical services, incorporating factors previously identified in the Ps14 multivariate logistic regression (Ps14n) model multivariate TBI outcome prediction model. The frequency and timing of secondary transfer to neurosurgical centres was assessed. Results We identified 15 820 patients with TBI presenting to neurosurgical centres directly (6258), transferred from a district hospital to a neurosurgical centre (3682) and remaining in a district general hospital (5880). The commonest mechanisms of injury were falls in the elderly and road traffic collisions in the young, which were more likely to present in coma. In severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8), the median time from admission to imaging with CT scan is 0.5 hours. Median time to craniotomy from admission is 2.6 hours and median time to intracranial pressure monitoring is 3 hours. The most frequently documented complication of severe TBI is bronchopneumonia in 5% of patients. Risk-adjusted W scores derived from the Ps14n model indicate that no neurosurgical unit fell outside the 3 SD limits on a funnel plot. Conclusions We provide the first comprehensive report of the management of TBI in England and Wales, including data from all neurosurgical units. These data provide transparency and suggests equity of access to high-quality TBI management provided in England and Wales. PMID:27884843

  19. Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into

  20. Winter mortality in relation to climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keatinge, W. R.; Donaldson, G. C.; Bucher, K.; Jendritzky, G.; Cordioli, E.; Martinelli, M.; Katsouyanni, K.; Kunst, A. E.; McDonald, C.; Näyhä, S.; Vuori, I.

    2000-01-01

    We report further details of the Eurowinter survey of cold related mortalities and protective measures against cold in seven regions of Europe, and review these with other evidence on the relationship of winter mortality to climate. Data for the oldest subject group studied, aged 65-74, showed that

  1. Trends in mortality decrease and economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niu, G.; Melenberg, B.

    2014-01-01

    The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are

  2. Excess mortality in giant cell arteritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgård, C; Sloth, H; Keiding, Niels

    1991-01-01

    A 13-year departmental sample of 34 patients with definite (biopsy-verified) giant cell arteritis (GCA) was reviewed. The mortality of this material was compared to sex-, age- and time-specific death rates in the Danish population. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 1.8 (95% confidence...

  3. Mortality in patients with Parkinson's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wermuth, L; Stenager, E; Stenager, E

    1995-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: After the introduction of L-dopa the mortality rate in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients has changed, but is still higher than in the background population. MATERIAL & METHODS: Mortality, age at death and cause of death in a group of PD patients compared with the background population...

  4. VSRR - Quarterly provisional estimates for infant mortality

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Provisional estimates of infant mortality (deaths of infants under 1 year per 1,000 live births), neonatal mortality (deaths of infants aged 0-27 days per 1,000 live...

  5. Diuretics and mortality in acute renal failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uchino, Shigehiko; Doig, Gordon S.; Bellomo, Renaldo; Morimatsu, Hiroshi; Morgera, Stanislao; Schetz, Miet; Tan, Ian; Bouman, Catherine; Nacedo, Ettiene; Gibney, Noel; Tolwani, Ashita; Ronco, Claudio; Kellum, John A.

    2004-01-01

    According to recent research, diuretics may increase mortality in acute renal failure patients. The administration of diuretics in such patients has been discouraged. Our objective was to determine the impact of diuretics on the mortality rate of critically ill patients with acute renal failure.

  6. Epidemiology of Maternal Mortality in Malawi

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    live births. Causes and determinants of maternal mortal- ity. Global causes of maternal mortality. Across the globe the causes of maternal deaths are strik- ..... at home”. Findings from Thyolo, Mangochi and Chik- wawa were similar". Perceived qua/ity of care. Like anywhere in the world, the perceived quality of care in ...

  7. Cancer mortality in Ireland, 1976-1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seymour, C.; Herity, B.; Moriarty, M.J.

    1989-01-01

    This volume brings together in easily accessible form up-to-date mortality statistics for cancer for the Republic of Ireland. Because of small numbers in many of the malignant neoplasms studied rates and standardised mortality ratios have been calculated for the 11 year period 1976-86. Basic data only is presented, based on cancer type, location, sex and age group

  8. Assessment of sampling mortality of larval fishes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cada, G.F.; Hergenrader, G.L.

    1978-01-01

    A study was initiated to assess the mortality of larval fishes that were entrained in the condenser cooling systems of two nuclear power plants on the Missouri River in Nebraska. High mortalities were observed not only in the discharge collections but also in control samples taken upriver from the plants where no entrainment effects were possible. As a result, entrainment mortality generally could not be demonstrated. A technique was developed which indicated that (1) a significant portion of the observed mortality above the power plants was the result of net-induced sampling mortality, and (2) a direct relationship existed between observed mortality and water velocity in the nets when sampling at the control sites, which was described by linear regression equations. When these equations were subsequently used to remove the effects of wide differences in sampling velocities between control and discharge collections, significant entrainment mortality was noted in all cases. The equations were also used to derive estimates of the natural mortality of ichthyoplankton in this portion of the Missouri River

  9. Regional differences in Dutch maternal mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaf, J.P.; Schutte, J.M.; Poeran, J.J.; van Roosmalen, J.; Bonsel, G.J.; Steegers, E.A.P.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To study regional differences in maternal mortality in the Netherlands. Design Confidential inquiry into the causes of maternal mortality. Setting Nationwide. Population A total of 3 108 235 live births and 337 maternal deaths. Methods Data analysis of all maternal deaths in the period

  10. Regional differences in Dutch maternal mortality.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaf, J. de; Schutte, J.; Poeran, J.; Roosmalen, J. van; Bonsel, G.; Steegers, E.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: de Graaf J, Schutte J, Poeran J, van Roosmalen J, Bonsel G, Steegers E. Regional differences in Dutch maternal mortality. BJOG 2012;119:582-588. Objective To study regional differences in maternal mortality in the Netherlands. Design Confidential inquiry into the causes of

  11. Mortality and reduced growth hormone secretion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochholm, Kirstine; Christiansen, Jens; Laursen, Torben

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Data regarding the mortality rates of patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD), whether or not treated with growth hormone (GH), are limited, but an increased mortality rate among hypopituitary patients compared with the general population has been documented. Cardiovascular dise...

  12. Alcohol consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

    on the relationship between liver cirrhosis mortality and alcohol consumption is included. The conclusion is that the total level of alcohol consumption as well as the specific beverages - beer, wine and spirits - contributes to liver cirrhosis mortality, but the present study also reveals that directly addressing...

  13. Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

  14. Mortality in mothers after perinatal loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Wu, C; Schendel, D

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether mothers who lost a child from stillbirth or in the first week of life have an increased overall mortality and cause-specific mortality. DESIGN: A population based follow-up study. SETTING: Data from Danish national registers. POPULATION: All mothers in Denmark were...... included in the cohort at time of their first delivery from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2008 and followed until 31 December 2009 or death, whichever came first. METHODS: The association between perinatal loss and total and cause-specific mortality in mothers was estimated with hazard ratios (HR) and 95......% confidence intervals (95% CI) calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall mortality and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 838 331 mothers in the cohort gave birth to one or more children and 7690 mothers (0.92%) experienced...

  15. Long-term mortality after poliomyelitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nete Munk; Rostgaard, Klaus; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have described mortality and cause of death among persons with a history of polio. METHODS: We identified a group of patients diagnosed with poliomyelitis in Copenhagen between 1919 and 1954. We obtained information on vital status through May 1997 and on cause of death...... by linkage with the Danish Civil Registration System and the Danish Cause-of-Death Register. Overall and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios served as the measure of mortality risk relative to that of the general population. RESULTS: We observed 1295 deaths among 5977 polio patients compared...... with an expected 1141 deaths (standardized mortality ratio = 1.14; 95% confidence interval = 1.07-1.20). Excess mortality was restricted to polio patients with a history of severe paralysis of the extremities (1.69; 1.32-2.15) or patients who had been treated for respiratory failure during the epidemics (2.71; 2...

  16. The gestational age pattern of human mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schöley, Jonas; Vaupel, James W.; Jacobsen, Rune

    -infant lifetable by gestational age spanning week 23 until week 100 after the last menstrual period of the mother. This joint lifetable shows a remarkable regularity in the gestational age profile of fetal- and infant mortality: Mortality rates are declining over the whole observed age range with the exception......In order to check hypotheses about the cause for "ontogenescense" -- the phenomenon of a declining force of mortality prior to maturity -- I analyse data on human mortality by gestational age. Based on extensive microdata on births, fetal- and infant deaths in the US 2009 I calculate a joint fetal...... of a "birth hump" peaking week 38. The absolute rate of decline slows down over age. The observed gestational age pattern of the force of mortality is consistent with three hypotheses concerning the causes for ontogenescense: 1) Adaptation: as the organism growths it becomes more resilient towards death, 2...

  17. Vitamin D with calcium reduces mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rejnmark, Lars; Avenell, Alison; Masud, Tahir

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Vitamin D may affect multiple health outcomes. If so, an effect on mortality is to be expected. Using pooled data from randomized controlled trials, we performed individual patient data (IPD) and trial level meta-analyses to assess mortality among participants randomized to either...... vitamin D alone or vitamin D with calcium. Subjects and Methods: Through a systematic literature search, we identified 24 randomized controlled trials reporting data on mortality in which vitamin D was given either alone or with calcium. From a total of 13 trials with more than 1000 participants each......,528 randomized participants (86.8% females) with a median age of 70 (interquartile range, 62-77) yr. Vitamin D with or without calcium reduced mortality by 7% [hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.88-0.99]. However, vitamin D alone did not affect mortality, but risk of death was reduced if vitamin...

  18. [Mortality and morbidity in surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banke, A.B.; Andersen, Jakob Steen; Heslet, L.

    2008-01-01

    Care Unit's (ICU) Critical Information System, a blood bank and the database of a vascular surgery unit. RESULTS: The perioperative mortality was 8%, ICU mortality 22%, postoperative mortality 33% and 30-day mortality 39%. The ICU mortality for patients with renal failure and septic shock...... was significantly higher than the overall ICU mortality. The ICU mortality and morbidity increased with the amount of postoperative blood loss. Patients with an initial serum creatinine concentration of

  19. Patterns of mortality rates in Darfur conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degomme, Olivier; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2010-01-23

    Several mortality estimates for the Darfur conflict have been reported since 2004, but few accounted for conflict dynamics such as changing displacement and causes of deaths. We analyse changes over time for crude and cause-specific mortality rates, and assess the effect of displacement on mortality rates. Retrospective mortality surveys were gathered from an online database. Quasi-Poisson models were used to assess mortality rates with place and period in which the survey was done, and the proportions of displaced people in the samples were the explanatory variables. Predicted mortality rates for five periods were computed and applied to population data taken from the UN's series about Darfur to obtain the number of deaths. 63 of 107 mortality surveys met all criteria for analysis. Our results show significant reductions in mortality rates from early 2004 to the end of 2008, although rates were higher during deployment of fewer humanitarian aid workers. In general, the reduction in rate was more important for violence-related than for diarrhoea-related mortality. Displacement correlated with increased rates of deaths associated with diarrhoea, but also with reduction in violent deaths. We estimated the excess number of deaths to be 298 271 (95% CI 178 258-461 520). Although violence was the main cause of death during 2004, diseases have been the cause of most deaths since 2005, with displaced populations being the most susceptible. Any reduction in humanitarian assistance could lead to worsening mortality rates, as was the case between mid 2006 and mid 2007. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Cardiovascular disease mortality in Asian Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose, Powell O; Frank, Ariel T H; Kapphahn, Kristopher I; Goldstein, Benjamin A; Eggleston, Karen; Hastings, Katherine G; Cullen, Mark R; Palaniappan, Latha P

    2014-12-16

    Asian Americans are a rapidly growing racial/ethnic group in the United States. Our current understanding of Asian-American cardiovascular disease mortality patterns is distorted by the aggregation of distinct subgroups. The purpose of the study was to examine heart disease and stroke mortality rates in Asian-American subgroups to determine racial/ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease mortality within the United States. We examined heart disease and stroke mortality rates for the 6 largest Asian-American subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese) from 2003 to 2010. U.S. death records were used to identify race/ethnicity and cause of death by International Classification of Diseases-10th revision coding. Using both U.S. Census data and death record data, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), relative SMRs (rSMRs), and proportional mortality ratios were calculated for each sex and ethnic group relative to non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). In this study, 10,442,034 death records were examined. Whereas NHW men and women had the highest overall mortality rates, Asian Indian men and women and Filipino men had greater proportionate mortality burden from ischemic heart disease. The proportionate mortality burden of hypertensive heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, especially hemorrhagic stroke, was higher in every Asian-American subgroup compared with NHWs. The heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease mortality patterns among diverse Asian-American subgroups calls attention to the need for more research to help direct more specific treatment and prevention efforts, in particular with hypertension and stroke, to reduce health disparities for this growing population. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Maternal mortality: the demographic aspects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanogo, D

    1989-10-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined maternal mortality (MM) as a death following a delivery or during the 42 day period following a prolonged or complicated delivery. This definition is ambiguous because it does not take into account the institutional causes (deficiencies) that lead to MM in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) nor does it reflect all the reasons leading to MM because of the lack of nationwide health information systems and the lack of accurate statistics. While developed countries can depend on the state to provide accurate statistics, developing countries depend on hospitals, health training centers and special surveys to provide such data which often leads to 25-50% gross underestimations of MM. The most recent WHO data (1989) shows that SSA has the highest MM rates worldwide, ranging from 500- 700/100,000 as compared to Asia with 55-650; Latin America with 110-210 and the developed countries with 10-48. The data for SSA doesn't reflect the true situation in the rural areas where MM rates are over 1000/1000,000. MM is a symptom of poor countries where women contribute to their own deaths through repeated pregnancies, causing significant socioeconomic losses to society. UNICEF (1988) has categorized the demographic factors as high risk for women based on: 1) the age of the mother, and 2) the number of pregnancies. Family planning (FP) reduces MM by preventing illegal abortions; it reduces the number of unwanted pregnancies and increases the earnings of a community by reducing the number of pregnant women. The experience of developed countries demonstrates how women have avoided high-risk and unwanted pregnancies.

  2. Perfil de morbidade e de mortalidade de pacientes idosos hospitalizados Morbidity and mortality profile of hospitalized elderly patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Claudia Santos Amaral

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Os objetivos deste estudo são analisar o perfil de morbi-mortalidade em idosos hospitalizados em dois hospitais universitários e dois não universitários, da Área de planejamento 2.2 da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, no ano de 1999, comparando as taxas de mortalidade hospitalar, ajustando para diferenças no perfil. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde (SIH/SUS. O modelo logístico foi ajustado incluindo as variáveis idade e diagnóstico primário, utilizado para calcular as taxas de mortalidade hospitalar ajustadas. As internações hospitalares em idosos (n = 7.584 representaram 29,3% do total de 25.928 internações realizadas nessas unidades. Catarata senil (7,8% foi a causa mais freqüente, seguida de hiperplasia de próstata (4,7%, insuficiência cardíaca congestiva (2,9% e bloqueio atrioventricular total (2,8%. Os hospitais não universitários apresentaram taxas de mortalidade hospitalar maiores do que as dos hospitais universitários, mesmo depois do ajuste para diferenças no perfil de casos em relação à idade e diagnóstico principal. O uso dos bancos de dados do SIH/SUS e da metodologia de ajuste de risco representam uma alternativa para avaliações exploratórias de resultados de cuidados de saúde.The objectives of this study were to analyze the morbidity and mortality profile in elderly patients hospitalized in two teaching and two non-teaching hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Municipal Planning Area 2.2 in 1999, and to compare in-hospital mortality rates adjusted for differences in profile. Data were obtained from the National Hospital Database of the Unified National Health System (SIH/SUS. The logistic model included the variables age and primary diagnosis to calculate risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates. Hospital admissions of elderly patients (n = 7,584 represented 29.3% of a total of 25,928 hospitalizations that took place in these units. Senile

  3. Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Carter, Karen; Naidu, Shivnay; Linhart, Christine; Azim, Syed; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D

    2013-12-01

    To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15-59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Over 1975-2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i-Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i-Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i-Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i-Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Despite IMR declines over 1975-2008, LE for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i-Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15-59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non-communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.

  4. [Mortality cost of smoking in Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobacho Tornel, Ma Belén; López Nicolás, Angel; Ramos Parreño, José María

    2010-01-01

    Public policies are crucial for smoking prevention and improving health among the population. Despite the positive impact in Spain of the law for smoking prevention in 2006, there is room for further improvement in this area of public policy. The estimate of the mortality cost per pack of cigarretes is a crucial factor in cost-benefit analysis for policies aimed to reducing smoking induced mortality. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) among Spanish smokers. Secondly, we quantify the mortality cost of smoking. We use a hedonic wage model to quantify the marginal value of an increase in the mortality risk in monetary terms. We estimate the model for the Spanish labour market using the European Community Household Data and the Encuesta de Accidentes de Trabajo from the Ministerio de Trabajo e Inmigración. We estimate a VSL of 3.78 million Euros for Spanish smokers. Using this value, in conjunction with the increase in the mortality risk over the life cycle due to smoking, the private mortality cost of smoking is 78 Euros per pack for men, and 54 Euros per pack for women (in 2000 Euros). The mortality cost per pack of cigarettes is highly above its market price.

  5. Dengue mortality in Colombia, 1985-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaparro-Narváez, Pablo; León-Quevedo, Willian; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos Andrés

    2016-02-11

    Dengue in Colombia is an important public health problem due to the huge economic and social costs it has caused, especially during the disease outbreaks.  To describe the behavior of dengue mortality in Colombia between 1985 and 2012.  We conducted a descriptive study. Information was obtained from mortality and population projection databases provided by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) for the 1985-2012 period. Mortality rates, rate ratios, and case fatality rates were estimated.  A total of 1,990 dengue deaths were registered during this period in Colombia. Dengue mortality rates presented an increasing trend with statistical significance between 1985 and 1998. Higher mortality rates were reported in men both younger than 5 years and older than 65 years. Between 1995 and 2012, category 1 to 4 municipalities reported the highest mortality rates. Case fatality rates varied during the period between 0.01% and 0.39%.  Dengue is an avoidable disease that should disappear from mortality statistics as a cause of death. The event is avoidable if the proposed activities from the Estrategia de Gestión Integrada (EGI)-Dengue are implemented and evaluated. We recommend encouraging the development of an informational culture to contribute to decision making and prioritizing resource allocation.

  6. Ovarian cancer mortality and industrial pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Pérez, Javier; Lope, Virginia; López-Abente, Gonzalo; González-Sánchez, Mario

    2015-01-01

    We investigated whether there might be excess ovarian cancer mortality among women residing near Spanish industries, according to different categories of industrial groups and toxic substances. An ecologic study was designed to examine ovarian cancer mortality at a municipal level (period 1997–2006). Population exposure to pollution was estimated by means of distance from town to facility. Using Poisson regression models, we assessed the relative risk of dying from ovarian cancer in zones around installations, and analyzed the effect of industrial groups and pollutant substances. Excess ovarian cancer mortality was detected in the vicinity of all sectors combined, and, principally, near refineries, fertilizers plants, glass production, paper production, food/beverage sector, waste treatment plants, pharmaceutical industry and ceramic. Insofar as substances were concerned, statistically significant associations were observed for installations releasing metals and polycyclic aromatic chemicals. These results support that residing near industries could be a risk factor for ovarian cancer mortality. - Highlights: • We studied excess mortality due to ovarian cancer near Spanish industries. • Integrated nested Laplace approximations were used as a Bayesian inference tool. • We found excess ovarian cancer mortality near all industrial groups as a whole. • Risk also was found in towns near industries releasing carcinogens and metals. • Risk was associated with plants releasing polycyclic aromatic chemicals and POPs. - Our results support that residing in the vicinity of pollutant industries could be a risk factor for ovarian cancer mortality

  7. Conifer Decline and Mortality in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Ranson, K.

    2015-12-01

    "Dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica and Picea obovata) decline and mortality increase were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed causes and scale of Siberian pine and fir mortality in Altai-Sayan and Baikal Lake Regions and West Siberian Plane based on in situdata and remote sensing (QuickBird, Landsat, GRACE). Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (i.e., within the forest-steppe and conifer-broadleaf ecotones) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Within ridges, mortality occurred mainly along mountain passes, where stands faced drying winds. Regularly mortality was observed to decrease with elevation increase with the exception of Baikal Lake Mountains, where it was minimal near the lake shore and increased with elevation (up to about 1000 m a.s.l.). Siberian pine and fir mortality followed a drying trend with consecutive droughts since the 1980s. Dendrochronology analysis showed that mortality was correlated with vapor pressure deficit increase, drought index, soil moisture decrease and occurrence of late frosts. In Baikal region Siberian pine mortality correlated with Baikal watershed meteorological variables. An impact of previous year climate conditions on the current growth was found (r2 = 0.6). Thus, water-stressed trees became sensitive to bark beetles and fungi impact (including Polygraphus proximus and Heterobasidion annosum). At present, an increase in mortality is observed within the majority of DNC range. Results obtained also showed a primary role of water stress in that phenomenon with a secondary role of bark beetles and fungi attacks. In future climate with increased drought severity and frequency Siberian pine and fir will partly disappear from its current range, and will be substituted by drought-tolerant species (e.g., Pinus silvestris, Larix sibirica).

  8. Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolden, Herbert J A; van Bodegom, David; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2014-01-01

    As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age, it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association, but cannot explain the association for the older, retired population. Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40-44 years) and older people (70-74 years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950-2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models. Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality, especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average, for every 1% increase in gross domestic product, mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118). In developed countries, mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy, and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role, but this remains to be formally investigated.

  9. INFANT MORTALITY MAR URAL POPULATION OF MEERUT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Prakash

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A cross sectional study was conducted in eight selected villages of Meerut District [UJP.} to find out infant mortality rate alongwith other various health care delivery practices associated with this. An infant mortality rate of 106.7/1000 LB was found in the study population. Infant mortality was higher in female infants, infants of mothers not availed antenatal care, not received tetanus toxoid, delivered by untrained personnel and where cow-dung was applied to cord stump. Among the causes of infant deaths prematurity or low birth weight was the commonest cause followed by respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases and tetanus neonatorum

  10. Predictors of mortality in insulin dependent diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossing, P; Hougaard, P; Borch-Johnsen, K

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic significance of microalbuminuria and overt diabetic nephropathy and other putative risk factors for cardiovascular and all cause mortality in insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Ten year observational follow up study. SETTING: Outpatient diabetic clinic...... in a tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: All 939 adults with insulin dependent diabetes (duration of diabetes five years or more) attending the clinic in 1984; 593 had normal urinary albumin excretion ( or = 300 mg...... and other potentially modifiable risk factors such as hypertension, smoking, poor glycaemic control, and social class predict increased mortality in insulin dependent diabetes. Microalbuminuria by itself confers only a small increase in mortality. The prognosis of patients with overt diabetic nephropathy...

  11. Mortality Rates Among Arab Americans in Michigan

    OpenAIRE

    Dallo, Florence J.; Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J.; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R.

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, ...

  12. Relationship Between a Sepsis Intervention Bundle and In-Hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Real-World Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya A; Shea, Erica R; Shiboski, Stephen; Sullivan, Mary C; Gonzales, Ralph; Shimabukuro, David

    2017-08-01

    .32-0.92) and increased age (adjusted IRR, 1.13 per 10-year increase in age; CI, 1.03-1.24). The University of California, San Francisco, sepsis bundle was associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital mortality across hospital units after robust control for confounders and risk adjustment. The adjusted NNT provides a reasonable and achievable goal to observe measureable improvements in outcomes for patients diagnosed with SS/SS.

  13. Relation between trends in late middle age mortality and trends in old age mortality--is there evidence for mortality selection?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.; Peeters, A.; Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.

    2005-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To test whether mortality selection was a dominant factor in determining trends in old age mortality, by empirically studying the existence of a negative correlation between trends in late middle age mortality and trends in old age mortality among the same cohorts. DESIGN AND

  14. Estimating mortality due to cigarette smoking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, H; Juel, K

    2000-01-01

    We estimated the mortality from various diseases caused by cigarette smoking using two methods and compared the results. In one method, the "Prevent" model is used to simulate the effect on mortality of the prevalence of cigarette smoking derived retrospectively. The other method, suggested by R....... Peto et al (Lancet 1992;339:1268-1278), requires data on mortality from lung cancer among people who have never smoked and among smokers, but it does not require data on the prevalence of smoking. In the Prevent model, 33% of deaths among men and 23% of those among women in 1993 from lung cancer...... are small and appear to be explicable. The Prevent model can be used for more general scenarios of effective health promotion, but it requires more data than the Peto et al method, which can be used only to estimate mortality related to smoking....

  15. Ovarian cancer mortality and industrial pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Pérez, Javier; Lope, Virginia; López-Abente, Gonzalo; González-Sánchez, Mario; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo

    2015-10-01

    We investigated whether there might be excess ovarian cancer mortality among women residing near Spanish industries, according to different categories of industrial groups and toxic substances. An ecologic study was designed to examine ovarian cancer mortality at a municipal level (period 1997-2006). Population exposure to pollution was estimated by means of distance from town to facility. Using Poisson regression models, we assessed the relative risk of dying from ovarian cancer in zones around installations, and analyzed the effect of industrial groups and pollutant substances. Excess ovarian cancer mortality was detected in the vicinity of all sectors combined, and, principally, near refineries, fertilizers plants, glass production, paper production, food/beverage sector, waste treatment plants, pharmaceutical industry and ceramic. Insofar as substances were concerned, statistically significant associations were observed for installations releasing metals and polycyclic aromatic chemicals. These results support that residing near industries could be a risk factor for ovarian cancer mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Coffee intake, cardiovascular disease and allcause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordestgaard, Ask Tybjærg; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne

    2016-01-01

    Background: Coffee has been associated with modestly lower risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in meta-analyses; however, it is unclear whether these are causal associations. We tested first whether coffee intake is associated with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality...... observationally; second, whether genetic variations previously associated with caffeine intake are associated with coffee intake; and third, whether the genetic variations are associated with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Methods: First, we used multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard......- and age adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models to examine genetic associations with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in 112 509 Danes. Finally, we used sex and age-adjusted logistic regression models to examine genetic associations with ischaemic heart disease including...

  17. Mortality in patients with pelvic fractures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Oliver; Strohm, Peter C; Culemann, Ulf

    2008-01-01

    hospitals were evaluated for age, gender, Injury Severity Score (ISS), Hannover Polytrauma Score (PTS), fracture type (using Tile's classification), peripelvic soft tissue injury, need for emergency measures, mortality, cause of death, and need for operative stabilization. We compared the patients...

  18. Gender differences in socioeconomic inequality in mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Mustard, C; Etches, J

    2003-01-01

    Objectives: There is uncertainty about whether position in a socioeconomic hierarchy confers different mortality risks on men and women. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of gender differences in socioeconomic inequality in risk of death.

  19. On hunger and child mortality in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaiha, Raghav; Kulkarni, Vani S; Pandey, Manoj K; Imai, Katsushi S

    2012-01-01

    Despite accelerated growth there is pervasive hunger, child undernutrition and mortality in India. Our analysis focuses on their determinants. Raising living standards alone will not reduce hunger and undernutrition. Reduction of rural/urban disparities, income inequality, consumer price stabilization, and mothers’ literacy all have roles of varying importance in different nutrition indicators. Somewhat surprisingly, public distribution system (PDS) do not have a significant effect on any of them. Generally, child undernutrition and mortality rise with poverty. Our analysis confirms that media exposure triggers public action, and helps avert child undernutrition and mortality. Drastic reduction of economic inequality is in fact key to averting child mortality, conditional upon a drastic reordering of social and economic arrangements.

  20. Homelessness as a predictor of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feodor Nilsson, Sandra; Laursen, Thomas Munk; Hjorthøj, Carsten

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the association between homelessness and psychiatric disorders, including substance use disorders, on one hand, and cause-specific and all-cause mortality on the other in a high-income country. Methods: A historical nationwide register-based cohort...... study of the Danish population from 15 years of age between 2000 and 2011 was conducted. The association between homelessness, psychiatric disorders, and mortality was analysed by Poisson Regression adjusting for important confounders. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for people...... with a history of homelessness compared with the general population using direct age-standardisation. Results: During 51,892,324 person-years of observation, 656,448 died. People with at least one homeless shelter contact accounted for 173,592 person-years with 4345 deaths. The excess mortality in the population...

  1. Mortality in People with Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslop, Pauline; Lauer, Emily; Hoghton, Matt

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews why an understanding of mortality data in general, and in relation to people with intellectual disabilities in particular, is an important area of concern, and introduces the papers in this Special Edition.

  2. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  3. Morbidity And Mortality Following Emergency Obstetric ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Morbidity And Mortality Following Emergency Obstetric Hysterectomy In Calabar, Nigeria. ... Nigerian Journal of Clinical Practice ... in 15 (33.3%) of the case and hysterectomy for puerperal sepsis was an indication in 3 (6.7%) of the cases

  4. Morbidity and mortality in esophageal atresia and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    retrospectively reviewed for age at diagnosis, sex, birth weight, gestational .... Table 4 Distribution and mortality according to Spitz's classification. Group. Number of patients .... gap EA was referred to us with cervical esophagostomy and was ...

  5. Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Kaptoge, Stephen; Wormser, David

    2015-01-01

    , stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate......IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using...... individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499...

  6. Risk factors for mortality in burn children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Teresa Rosanova

    2014-03-01

    Conclusions: In this series of burn children age ≤ 4 years, Garces index score 4, colistin use in documented multiresistant infections, mechanical ventilation and graft requirement were identified as independent variables related with mortality.

  7. Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Guillot

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the existence of tempo effects in mortality and evaluates the procedure developed by Bongaarts and Feeney for calculating a tempo-adjusted life expectancy. It is shown that Bongaarts and Feeney's index can be interpreted as an indicator reflecting current mortality conditions under specific assumptions regarding the effects of changing period mortality conditions on the timing of future cohort deaths. It is argued, however, that currently there is no clear evidence about the existence of such effects in actual populations. This paper concludes that until the existence of these effects can be demonstrated, it is preferable to continue using the conventional life expectancy as an indicator of current mortality conditions.

  8. Black and White Differentials in Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rene, Antonio A.; Clifford, Patrick R.

    1986-01-01

    Overviews vital statistics data, emphasizing differences in health status between the Black and White populations with respect to specific diseases and mortality. Discusses major causes of death among US Blacks. (GC)

  9. Illness Human - MDC_InfantMortality2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Polygon feature class based on Zip Code boundaries showing the rate of infant mortality per 1000 births in Miami-Dade County, 2006. Rate does not include out of...

  10. Excess mortality in patients diagnosed with hypothyroidism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Pedersen, Dorthe Almind

    2013-01-01

    Background: Although hypothyroidism is associated with increased morbidity, an association with increased mortality is still debated. Our objective was to investigate, at a nationwide level, whether a diagnosis of hypothyroidism influences mortality. Methods: In an observational cohort study from...... January 1, 1978 until December 31, 2008 using record-linkage data from nationwide Danish health registers, 3587 singletons and 682 twins diagnosed with hypothyroidism were identified. Hypothyroid individuals were matched 1:4 with nonhypothyroid controls with respect to age and gender and followed over...... a mean period of 5.6 years (range 0-30 years). The hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was calculated using Cox regression analyses. Comorbidity was evaluated using the Charlson score (CS). Results: In singletons with hypothyroidism, the mortality risk was increased (HR 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1...

  11. Increased mortality among people with anxiety disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, Sandra M; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mors, Ole

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders and depression are the most common mental disorders worldwide and have a striking impact on global disease burden. Although depression has consistently been found to increase mortality; the role of anxiety disorders in predicting mortality risk is unclear. AIMS......: To assess mortality risk in people with anxiety disorders. METHOD: We used nationwide Danish register data to conduct a prospective cohort study with over 30 million person-years of follow-up. RESULTS: In total, 1066 (2.1%) people with anxiety disorders died during an average follow-up of 9.7 years....... The risk of death by natural and unnatural causes was significantly higher among individuals with anxiety disorders (natural mortality rate ratio (MRR) = 1.39, 95% CI 1.28-1.51; unnatural MRR = 2.46, 95% CI 2.20-2.73) compared with the general population. Of those who died from unnatural causes, 16.5% had...

  12. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  13. Poverty Mapping Project: Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Subnational Infant Mortality Rates consists of estimates of infant mortality rates for the year 2000. The infant mortality rate for a region or country is...

  14. Leukaemia mortality and morbidity in Bavaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosche, B.; Hinz, G.; Tsavachidis, C.

    1987-01-01

    Two studies dealing with leukaemia in Bavaria/FRG are presented: a mortality study (1972-1978) and a morbidity study (1976-1981). Both were conducted as ecological studies, i.e. under inclusion of environmental factors. Major point of view is first the amount of natural background radiation and second the sites of nuclear reactors, which are six. Mortality and incidence is described. Calculations were made on the influence of migration on patterns of regional distribution. (author)

  15. Mortality in babies with achondroplasia: revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Kristen; Hashmi, S Shahrukh; Scheuerle, Angela; Canfield, Mark; Hecht, Jacqueline T

    2014-04-01

    Natural history studies performed 30 years ago identifying higher mortality among children born with achondroplasia, a genetic dwarfing condition, resulted in clinical recommendations aimed at improving mortality in childhood. The objective of this study was to determine if mortality rates have changed over the past few decades. Children born with achondroplasia during 1996 to 2003 were ascertained from the Texas Birth Defects Registry and matched with death certificate data from the Bureau of Vital Statistics through 2007. Infant and overall mortality rates, both crude and standardized to the 2005 (SMR2005 ) and 1975 (SMR1975 ) U.S. populations, were calculated. 106 children born with achondroplasia were identified. Four deaths were reported, with all occurring in the first year of life (mortality rate: 41.4 /1000 live-births). Infant mortality was higher when standardized to the 2005 U.S. population (SMR2005 :6.02, 95% CI:1.64-15.42) than the 1975 population (SMR1975 :2.58, 95% CI:0.70-6.61). The higher SMR2005 compared with SMR1975 , along with the fact that SMR1975 was nearly half that of a previous cohort reported 25 years ago (rate ratio: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.11-2.25), reflect a discrepancy in the changes in mortality in the overall population and in our cohort. Although an overall improvement in mortality, especially after the first year of life, is observed in our cohort, children with achondroplasia are still at a much higher risk of death compared with the general population. A longer follow-up is needed to elucidate whether evaluation/intervention changes have resulted in significant improvement in long-term survival among these patients. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guyatt Gordon H

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results. Methods We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided. Results Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year. Conclusion Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining

  17. Sunnier European countries have lower melanoma mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipman, A R; Clark, A B; Levell, N J

    2011-07-01

    Doubt has been cast on sunlight as the major causative factor for malignant melanoma. We performed statistical analysis of the average annual sunlight hours in 36 European capital cities compared with the country's melanoma mortality rate. A significant inverse proportionality was identified in both men and women, indicating that sun exposure is unlikely to be the strongest factor affecting mortality from malignant melanoma. © The Author(s). CED © 2011 British Association of Dermatologists.

  18. Flavonoid intake and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Kerry L; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Croft, Kevin D; Lewis, Joshua R; Prince, Richard L

    2015-05-01

    Flavonoids are bioactive compounds found in foods such as tea, chocolate, red wine, fruit, and vegetables. Higher intakes of specific flavonoids and flavonoid-rich foods have been linked to reduced mortality from specific vascular diseases and cancers. However, the importance of flavonoids in preventing all-cause mortality remains uncertain. The objective was to explore the association between flavonoid intake and risk of 5-y mortality from all causes by using 2 comprehensive food composition databases to assess flavonoid intake. The study population included 1063 randomly selected women aged >75 y. All-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortalities were assessed over 5 y of follow-up through the Western Australia Data Linkage System. Two estimates of flavonoid intake (total flavonoidUSDA and total flavonoidPE) were determined by using food composition data from the USDA and the Phenol-Explorer (PE) databases, respectively. During the 5-y follow-up period, 129 (12%) deaths were documented. Participants with high total flavonoid intake were at lower risk [multivariate-adjusted HR (95% CI)] of 5-y all-cause mortality than those with low total flavonoid consumption [total flavonoidUSDA: 0.37 (0.22, 0.58); total flavonoidPE: 0.36 (0.22, 0.60)]. Similar beneficial relations were observed for both cardiovascular disease mortality [total flavonoidUSDA: 0.34 (0.17, 0.69); flavonoidPE: 0.32 (0.16, 0.61)] and cancer mortality [total flavonoidUSDA: 0.25 (0.10, 0.62); flavonoidPE: 0.26 (0.11, 0.62)]. Using the most comprehensive flavonoid databases, we provide evidence that high consumption of flavonoids is associated with reduced risk of mortality in older women. The benefits of flavonoids may extend to the etiology of cancer and cardiovascular disease. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  19. Hypothyroidism and Mortality among Dialysis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, Connie M.; Alexander, Erik K.; Bhan, Ishir

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Hypothyroidism is highly prevalent among ESRD patients, but its clinical significance and the benefits of thyroid hormone replacement in this context remain unclear. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study examined the association between hypothyroidism and all-cause mortality among 2715 adult dialysis patients with baseline thyrotropin levels measured between April of 2005 and April of 2011. Mortality was ascertained from Social Security Death Master Index and local registration systems. The association between hypothyroidism (thyrotropin greater than assay upper limit normal) and mortality was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. To reduce the risk of observing reverse-causal associations, models included a 30-day lag between thyrotropin measurement and at-risk time. Results Among 350 (12.9%) hypothyroid and 2365 (87.1%) euthyroid (assay within referent range) patients, 917 deaths were observed during 5352 patient-years of at-risk time. Hypothyroidism was associated with higher mortality. Compared with thyrotropin in the low-normal range (0.4–2.9 mIU/L), subclinical hypothyroidism (thyrotropin >upper limit normal and ≤10.0 mIU/L) was associated with higher mortality; high-normal thyrotropin (≥3.0 mIU/L and ≤upper limit normal) and overt hypothyroidism (thyrotropin >10.0 mIU/L) were associated with numerically greater risk, but estimates were not statistically significant. Compared with spontaneously euthyroid controls, patients who were euthyroid while on exogenous thyroid replacement were not at higher mortality risk, whereas patients who were hypothyroid were at higher mortality risk. Sensitivity analyses indicated that effects on cardiovascular risk factors may mediate the observed association between hypothyroidism and death. Conclusions These data suggest that hypothyroidism is associated with higher mortality in dialysis patients, which may be ameliorated by thyroid hormone replacement

  20. Air pollution and mortality: A history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, H. R.

    Mortality is the most important health effect of ambient air pollution and has been studied the longest. The earliest evidence relates to fog episodes but with the development of more precise methods of investigation it is still possible to discern short-term temporal associations with daily mortality at the historically low levels of air pollution that now exist in most developed countries. Another early observation was that mortality was higher in more polluted areas. This has been confirmed by modern cohort studies that account for other potential explanations for such associations. There does not appear to be a threshold of effect within the ambient range of concentrations. Advances in the understanding of air pollution and mortality have been driven by the combined development of methods and biomedical concepts. The most influential methodological developments have been in time-series techniques and the establishment of large cohort studies, both of which are underpinned by advances in data processing and statistical analysis. On the biomedical side two important developments can be identified. One has been the application of the concept of multifactorial disease causation to explaining how air pollution may affect mortality at low levels and why thresholds are not obvious at the population level. The other has been an increasing understanding of how air pollution may plausibly have pathophysiological effects that are remote from the lung interface with ambient air. Together, these advances have had a profound influence on policies to protect public health. Throughout the history of air pollution epidemiology, mortality studies have been central and this will continue because of the widespread availability of mortality data on a large population scale and the weight that mortality carries in estimating impacts for policy development.

  1. Socioeconomic trajectories affect mortality in Klinefelter syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojesen, Anders; Krag, Kirstine Stochholm; Juul, Svend

    2011-01-01

    Klinefelter syndrome (KS) is associated with male infertility, hypogonadism, and learning disability. Morbidity and mortality are increased and the causes behind remain unknown. Is it the chromosome aberration or is it caused by postulated poorer socioeconomic status?......Klinefelter syndrome (KS) is associated with male infertility, hypogonadism, and learning disability. Morbidity and mortality are increased and the causes behind remain unknown. Is it the chromosome aberration or is it caused by postulated poorer socioeconomic status?...

  2. Environmental Pollution: Causing High Morbidity and Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    , E. Laho; , G. Koduzi; , D. Osmanlli; , F. Aliu

    2016-01-01

    The environmental pollution which is increasing, it is a concerning issue for the community, and when it comes to big cities like Elbasan this is a hot spot. The relevant experience has shown that the more industrial and urban pollution an area has, the higher the pulmonary morbidity is and more cases of mortality from tumoral diseases are. To investigate and show the morbidity and mortality rate from respiratory diseases, cancer etc In our investigation which is a retrospective statistical r...

  3. Mortality in patients with pituitary disease.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sherlock, Mark

    2010-06-01

    Pituitary disease is associated with increased mortality predominantly due to vascular disease. Control of cortisol secretion and GH hypersecretion (and cardiovascular risk factor reduction) is key in the reduction of mortality in patients with Cushing\\'s disease and acromegaly, retrospectively. For patients with acromegaly, the role of IGF-I is less clear-cut. Confounding pituitary hormone deficiencies such as gonadotropins and particularly ACTH deficiency (with higher doses of hydrocortisone replacement) may have a detrimental effect on outcome in patients with pituitary disease. Pituitary radiotherapy is a further factor that has been associated with increased mortality (particularly cerebrovascular). Although standardized mortality ratios in pituitary disease are falling due to improved treatment, mortality for many conditions are still elevated above that of the general population, and therefore further measures are needed. Craniopharyngioma patients have a particularly increased risk of mortality as a result of the tumor itself and treatment to control tumor growth; this is a key area for future research in order to optimize the outcome for these patients.

  4. Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors: report 7. Mortality, 1950-1978: part II. Mortality from causes other than cancer and mortality in early entrants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, H.; Brown, C.C.; Hoel, D.G.; Shull, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    Deaths in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (REFR) Life Span Study (LSS) sample have been determined for the 4 years 1975-1978, and mortality examined for the 28 years since 1950. An analysis of cancer mortality is presented separately. In this report, we examine whether mortality from causes other than cancer is also increased or whether a nonspecific acceleration of aging occurs. 1. Cumulative mortality from causes other than cancer, estimated by the life table method, does not increase with radiation dose in either city, in either sex, or in any of the five different age-at-the-time-of-bomb groups. 2. No specific cause of death, other than cancer, exhibits a significant relationship with A-bomb exposure. Thus there is still no evidence of a nonspecific acceleration of aging due to radiation in this cohort. 3. Mortality before the LSS sample was established has been reanalyzed using three supplementary mortality surveys to determine the magnitude of the possible bias from the exclusion of deaths prior to 1950. It is unlikely that such a bias seriously affects the interpretation of the radiation effects observed in the cohort after 1950. 4. No excess of deaths from leukemia or other malignant tumors is observed among early entrants into these cities in this cohort

  5. Characterizing mortality in pediatric tracheostomy patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funamura, Jamie L; Yuen, Sonia; Kawai, Kosuke; Gergin, Ozgul; Adil, Eelam; Rahbar, Reza; Watters, Karen

    2017-07-01

    To assess the longitudinal risk of death following tracheostomy in the pediatric age group. Retrospective cohort study. Hospital records of 513 children (≤18 years) at a tertiary care children's hospital who underwent tracheostomy between 1984 and 2015 were reviewed. The primary outcome measure was time from tracheostomy to death. Secondary patient demographic and clinical characteristics were assessed, with likelihood of death using χ 2 tests and the Cox proportional hazards model. Median age at time of tracheostomy was 0.8 years (interquartile range, 0.3-5.2 years).The highest mortality rate (27.8%) was observed in patients in the 13- to 18-year-old age category; their mortality rate was significantly higher when compared to the lowest mortality risk group patients (age 1-4 years, P = .031). Timing of death was evenly distributed: 1 year after tracheostomy (35.3%). Patients who underwent tracheostomy for cardiopulmonary disease had an increased risk of mortality compared with airway obstruction (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.53, 95% confidence interval: 1.72-7.24, P tracheostomy have a high mortality rate, with an increased risk of death associated with a cardiopulmonary indication for undergoing tracheostomy. The majority of deaths occur after the index hospitalization during which the tracheostomy was performed. BPD and CHD are independent predictors of mortality in pediatric tracheostomy patients. 4 Laryngoscope, 127:1701-1706, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  6. Income inequality and socioeconomic gradients in mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Richard G; Pickett, Kate E

    2008-04-01

    We investigated whether the processes underlying the association between income inequality and population health are related to those responsible for the socioeconomic gradient in health and whether health disparities are smaller when income differences are narrower. We used multilevel models in a regression analysis of 10 age- and cause-specific US county mortality rates on county median household incomes and on state income inequality. We assessed whether mortality rates more closely related to county income were also more closely related to state income inequality. We also compared mortality gradients in more- and less-equal states. Mortality rates more strongly associated with county income were more strongly associated with state income inequality: across all mortality rates, r= -0.81; P=.004. The effect of state income inequality on the socioeconomic gradient in health varied by cause of death, but greater equality usually benefited both wealthier and poorer counties. Although mortality rates with steep socioeconomic gradients were more sensitive to income distribution than were rates with flatter gradients, narrower income differences benefit people in both wealthy and poor areas and may, paradoxically, do little to reduce health disparities.

  7. Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granados, José A Tapia

    2008-05-01

    Recent research has shown that after long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in economic recessions. In the present work, co-movements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations attributable to trends, series are detrended either via Hodrick-Prescott filtering or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, general mortality and age-specific death rates in Japan tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, for both males and females. The effect, which is slightly stronger for males, is particularly noticeable in those aged 45-64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility--making up about 41% of total mortality--tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, as well as deaths attributable to diabetes and hypertensive disease, make up about 4% of total mortality and fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don't show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy.

  8. Parental Incarceration and Child Mortality in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Signe Hald; Lee, Hedwig; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We used Danish registry data to examine the association between parental incarceration and child mortality risk. Methods. We used a sample of all Danish children born in 1991 linked with parental information. We conducted discrete-time survival analysis separately for boys (n = 30 146) and girls (n = 28 702) to estimate the association of paternal and maternal incarceration with child mortality, controlling for parental sociodemographic characteristics. We followed the children until age 20 years or death, whichever came first. Results. Results indicated a positive association between paternal and maternal imprisonment and male child mortality. Paternal imprisonment was associated with lower child mortality risks for girls. The relationship between maternal imprisonment and female child mortality changed directions depending on the model, suggesting no clear association. Conclusions. These results indicate that the incarceration of a parent may influence child mortality but that it is important to consider the gender of both the child and the incarcerated parent. PMID:24432916

  9. Social integration and mortality in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siahpush, M; Singh, G K

    1999-12-01

    To investigate the relationship between social integration and mortality at the aggregate level of analysis. The data were compiled from several Australian Bureau of Statistics documents. The unit of analysis was State (Territory)-year. The multivariate regression analysis included data from all States and the Australian Capital Territory for 1990-96. Five indicators of social integration--percentage of people living alone; divorce rate; unemployment rate; proportion of people who are discouraged job seekers; and unionization rate--were used as predictors of nine measures of mortality. Higher levels of social integration, as measured by all indicators except unionization, were associated with lower mortality rates. In the case of unionization, higher levels were associated with increased mortality rates. Studies concerning the relationship between social integration and health should investigate the 'type' and 'level' of social integration that is conducive to better health. To help reduce disparities in health and mortality across communities, public health researchers and policy makers need to closely monitor geographic and temporal trends in social integration measures. Social policies that emphasise investment in social integration or social capital through job creation and training, provision of gainful employment and social services for discouraged and marginalized workers, improved work conditions and social support may lower mortality directly or through their beneficial effects on health-promoting behaviours such as reduced levels of smoking, drinking and physical inactivity.

  10. Update on worker mortality data at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1979-01-01

    The subject of this paper is a study of the effects on mortality of occupational exposure to ionizing radiation at the Hanford plant. The Hanford plant, which is located in southeastern Washington State, was established in the early forties as an installation for plutonium production. Many workers employed by the various contractors hold jobs involving some exposure to radiation. Yearly records of this exposure, obtained from dosimeter readings, as well as occupational data, are maintained for all employees. Mortality data are obtained by having the Social Security Administration periodically search their records for deaths of persons identified in the personnel rosters of Hanford contractors. Published analyses of worker mortality at Hanford have included workers initially employed before 1965 and mortality up to April 1, 1974. In this paper, the mortality data are updated to include deaths up to May 1, 1977, workers employed 1965 and later, and the most recent exposure data. In addition to updating results of earlier analyses, this paper provides a discussion of the problems involved in analyzing and interpreting occupational exposure and mortality data. For a more detailed discussion of these problems the reader is referred to the papers noted above

  11. Infant mortality in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, S J; Booth, H

    1988-12-01

    Levy and Booth present previously unpublished infant mortality rates for the Marshall Islands. They use an indirect method to estimate infant mortality from the 1973 and 1980 censuses, then apply indirect and direct methods of estimation to data from the Marshall Islands Women's Health Survey of 1985. Comparing the results with estimates of infant mortality obtained from vital registration data enables them to estimate the extent of underregistration of infant deaths. The authors conclude that 1973 census appears to be the most valid information source. Direct estimates from the Women's Health Survey data suggest that infant mortality has increased since 1970-1974, whereas the indirect estimates indicate a decreasing trend in infant mortality rates, converging with the direct estimates in more recent years. In view of increased efforts to improve maternal and child health in the mid-1970s, the decreasing trend is plausible. It is impossible to estimate accurately infant mortality in the Marshall Islands during 1980-1984 from the available data. Estimates based on registration data for 1975-1979 are at least 40% too low. The authors speculate that the estimate of 33 deaths per 1000 live births obtained from registration data for 1984 is 40-50% too low. In round figures, a value of 60 deaths per 1000 may be taken as the final estimate for 1980-1984.

  12. Recurring waterbird mortalities and unusual etiologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Rebecca A.; Franson, J. Christian; Boere, Gerard C.; Galbraith, Colin A.; Stroud, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decade, the National Wildlife Health Center of the United States Geological Survey has documented various largescale mortalities of birds caused by infectious and non-infectious disease agents. Some of these mortality events have unusual or unidentified etiologies and have been recurring. While some of the causes of mortalities have been elucidated, others remain in various stages of investigation and identification. Two examples are discussed: 1) Leyogonimus polyoon (Class: Trematoda), not found in the New World until 1999, causes severe enteritis and has killed over 15 000 American Coot Fulica americana in the upper mid-western United States. The geographic range of this parasite within North America is predicted to be limited to the Great Lakes Basin. 2) In the early 1990s, estimates of up to 6% of the North American population of the Eared Grebe Podiceps nigricollis died at Salton Sea, California, with smaller mortalities occurring throughout the 1990s. Birds were observed to have unusual preening behaviour, and to congregate at freshwater drains and move onto land. Suggested etiologies included interactions of contaminants, immuno-suppression, an unusual form of a bacterial disease, and an unknown biotoxin. During studies carried out from 2000 to 2003, Eared Grebe mortality did not approach the level seen in the early 1990s and, although bacteria were identified as minor factors, the principal cause of mortality remains undetermined. The potential population impact of these emerging and novel disease agents is currently unknown.

  13. Mortality rates among Arab Americans in Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallo, Florence J; Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R

    2012-04-01

    The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population.

  14. Calculating the Rate of Senescence From Mortality Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koopman, Jacob J E; Rozing, Maarten P; Kramer, Anneke

    2016-01-01

    , they do not fit mortality rates at young and old ages. Therefore, we developed a method to calculate senescence rates from the acceleration of mortality directly without modeling the mortality rates. We applied the different methods to age group-specific mortality data from the European Renal Association......, the rate of senescence can be calculated directly from non-modeled mortality rates, overcoming the disadvantages of an indirect estimation based on modeled mortality rates....

  15. Cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality among men and women starting dialysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carrero, Juan J; de Jager, Dinanda J; Verduijn, Marion

    2011-01-01

    Although women have a survival advantage in the general population, women on dialysis have similar mortality to men. We hypothesized that this paired mortality risk during dialysis may be explained by a relative excess of cardiovascular-related mortality in women.......Although women have a survival advantage in the general population, women on dialysis have similar mortality to men. We hypothesized that this paired mortality risk during dialysis may be explained by a relative excess of cardiovascular-related mortality in women....

  16. Effect of healthcare on mortality: trends in avoidable mortality in Umbria, Italy, 1994-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Stracci

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Avoidable mortality trends over the period 1994-2009 were calculated to evaluate health intervention by the health system of Umbria, a region of central Italy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mortality data were supplied by the regional causes of death registry. Rates were standardized to the 2001 census Italian population. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends. RESULTS: Overall avoidable mortality rates decreased significantly both in males (-3.9% per year and in females (-3.6% per year. Mortality rates from ischemic heart and cerebrovascular disease about halved in the study period in both sexes. Avoidable mortality increased slightly only for a few causes (e.g. lung cancer in females. CONCLUSION: The overall trend of avoidable mortality indicates that the regional health/ preventive system is performing well.

  17. The Effect of Mortality Shocks on the Age-Pattern of Adult Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia

    2013-01-01

    increase by age is missing. In the case of a shock, three scenarios may occur: mortality may be raised proportionally at all ages, more at older ages, or more at younger ages. Two cases of natural mortality experiments were analysed: Australian civilian prisoners in a Japanese camp during the Second World...... War and the Ukrainian Famine of 1933. The death rates of the prisoners of war were higher during imprisonment but the slope of the curve appeared to resemble that of the normal mortality regime. During the Ukrainian Famine, by contrast, the mortality curves in the different famine years were raised...

  18. Demographic factors and cancer mortality. A mathematical model for cancer mortality in Denmark 1943-78

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel, K

    1983-01-01

    young adult life into old age. One-year age-specific mortality rates between 30 and 79 years of age were computed for 14 different cancer sites among both males and females, in five ten-year birth cohorts and for the capital and provinces. The number of deaths at a particular age were found to follow...... a Poisson distribution and the mortality rate could be expressed by the function lx = bxk, where lx is the mortality rate at age x, and b and k are parameters to be estimated. With this model a straight line is obtained, when mortality and age are plotted on a double logarithmic scale. The maximum...

  19. National surgical mortality audit may be associated with reduced mortality after emergency admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiermeier, Andreas; Babidge, Wendy J; McCulloch, Glenn A J; Maddern, Guy J; Watters, David A; Aitken, R James

    2017-10-01

    The Western Australian Audit of Surgical Mortality was established in 2002. A 10-year analysis suggested it was the primary driver in the subsequent fall in surgeon-related mortality. Between 2004 and 2010 the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons established mortality audits in other states. The aim of this study was to examine national data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) to determine if a similar fall in mortality was observed across Australia. The AIHW collects procedure and outcome data for all surgical admissions. AIHW data from 2005/2006 to 2012/2013 was used to assess changes in surgical mortality. Over the 8 years surgical admissions increased by 23%, while mortality fell by 18% and the mortality per admission fell by 33% (P audit was associated with a sharp decline in perioperative mortality. In the absence of any influences from other changes in clinical governance or new quality programmes it is probable it had a causal effect. The reduced mortality was most evident in high-risk patients. This study adds to the evidence that national audits are associated with improved outcomes. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  20. Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

    2017-05-01

    To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMIBMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

  1. Herd factors associated with dairy cow mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnel, C; Lombard, J; Wagner, B; Kopral, C; Garry, F

    2015-08-01

    Summary studies of dairy cow removal indicate increasing levels of mortality over the past several decades. This poses a serious problem for the US dairy industry. The objective of this project was to evaluate associations between facilities, herd management practices, disease occurrence and death rates on US dairy operations through an analysis of the National Animal Health Monitoring System's Dairy 2007 survey. The survey included farms in 17 states that represented 79.5% of US dairy operations and 82.5% of the US dairy cow population. During the first phase of the study operations were randomly selected from a sampling list maintained by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Only farms that participated in phase I and had 30 or more dairy cows were eligible to participate in phase II. In total, 459 farms had complete data for all selected variables and were included in this analysis. Univariable associations between dairy cow mortality and 162 a priori identified operation-level management practices or characteristics were evaluated. Sixty of the 162 management factors explored in the univariate analysis met initial screening criteria and were further evaluated in a multivariable model exploring more complex relationships. The final weighted, negative binomial regression model included six variables. Based on the incidence rate ratio, this model predicted 32.0% less mortality for operations that vaccinated heifers for at least one of the following: bovine viral diarrhea, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, parainfluenza 3, bovine respiratory syncytial virus, Haemophilus somnus, leptospirosis, Salmonella, Escherichia coli or clostridia. The final multivariable model also predicted a 27.0% increase in mortality for operations from which a bulk tank milk sample tested ELISA positive for bovine leukosis virus. Additionally, an 18.0% higher mortality was predicted for operations that used necropsies to determine the cause of death for some proportion of dead

  2. PREVALENT DISEASES AND OVERALL MORTALITY IN BROILERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Farooq, Zahir-ud-Din, F .R. Durrani, M.A. Mian, N. Chand and J. Ahmed1

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Records from 62-broiler farms located in Swat, North West Frontier Province (NWFP, Pakistan were, collected during the year 1998 to investigate prevalent diseases and overall mortality in broilers. Losses due Hydro-pericardium syndrome (HPS were the highest (17.05 ± 2.08% and the lowest due to coccidiosis 9.39 ± 3.82%. Non-significant differences existed in mortality caused by Newcastle, IBD and yolk sac infection. Differences in losses caused by infectious coryza, enteritis and coccidiosis were also non- significant. Average overall mortality was 13.05 ± 1.16%, representing 7.59 ± 0.46% losses from day-1 to day 14 and 18.52 ± 0.95% from day-15 till marketing of broilers (42-50 days. Lower (p<0.05 overall mortality was observed in broilers reared on well-finished concrete floors (12.43 ± 1.45 % than in those on brick+mud made floors (14.36 ± 1.55. Higher (p<0.05 overall mortality was found in overcrowded houses 5.60 ± 5.62% than in optimally utilized houses (10.69 ± 1.51%. Overall mortality was higher (p<0.05 in flocks under substandard vaccination schedule (15.92 ± 1.55% than in those maintained under standard lancination schedule (10.20 ± 1.21%. Overall mortality was higher (21.11 ± 3.39% when the interval between two batches was ≤ 7 days than 16-20 days (5.72 ± 3.01%. Lower (p<0.05 overall mortality was und in broilers maintained under good hygienic ( 11.59 ±1.93% and sanitary conditions ( 10.82 ± 1.16% compared to those under poor hygienic and sanitary conditions (14.12 ± 2.81% and 15.15 ± 1.68 %respectively. Maintenance of broilers under good hygienic conditions on well finished concrete floor, providing the required space/broiler, following recommended vaccination schedule without HPS vaccine and keeping 8.20 days interval between two batches were suggested as key factors in reducing mortality among broilers in Swat

  3. Mortality among petrochemical science and engineering employees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnetz, B.B; Raymond, L.W.; Nicolich, M.J.; Vargo, L.

    1991-01-01

    This is a study of a dynamic cohort of 13,250 commercial research and development personnel for whom information on occupational and education background and smoking was available. Their age-, sex-, race-, and period-adjusted death rates were compared with New Jersey rates and with an internal comparison population. The study groups had significantly fewer deaths from most major disease categories compared with other New Jersey residents. Among white male scientists and engineers, age-adjusted overall mortality and ischemic heart disease mortality were comparable to white male managers and support staff studied, whereas mortality from leukemia and lymphatic cancer was significantly elevated. Mechanics, however, had a significantly lower leukemia and lymphatic cancer mortality rate than did the comparison group. In a Poisson regression model in which white males and females from the study population were used, and for which the effects of age, smoking, college education category, period of hire, and years employed were controlled, scientists, engineers, and research technicians had elevated (nonsignificantly) mortality rates for leukemia and lymphatic cancer compared with managers and support staff. Smoking was an independent risk factor for leukemia and lymphatic cancer. Further work is needed to asses is specific environmental factors, such as benzene, other aromatics, radiation, medical treatment, and smoking habits, might have contributed to the above findings

  4. Lifestyle and mortality among Norwegian men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotevatn, S; Akslen, L A; Bjelke, E

    1989-07-01

    Information on six different habits (cigarette smoking, physical activity, frequency of alcohol and of fruit/vegetable consumption, and daily bread and potato consumption) was obtained by two postal surveys (1964 and 1967) among Norwegian men. The answers were related to mortality among 10,187 respondents ages 35-74 years at the start of the follow-up period (1967-1978). Analyses, stratified by age, place of residence, marital status, and socioeconomic group, showed an association between the six variables and observed/expected deaths, as well as odds ratio estimates. A health practice score, obtained by adding the number of favorable habits, showed a strong inverse relationship with total mortality as well as deaths from cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and other causes. Odds ratio estimates for men with only favorable habits vs those with at most one such habit, were 0.31 for total mortality, 0.44 for cancer, and 0.36 for cardiovascular mortality. Separate analyses among current smokers and nonsmokers showed a particularly strong association between the five other habits and mortality from cardiovascular disease.

  5. Alternative approach to analyzing occupational mortality data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.; Buchanan, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    It is widely recognized that analyzing occupational mortality by calculating standardized mortality ratios based on death rates from the general population is subject to a number of limitations. An alternative approach described in this report takes advantage of the fact that comparisons of mortality by subgroups and assessments of trends in mortality are often of equal or greater interest than overall assessments and that such comparisons do not require an external control. A computer program MOX (Mortality and Occupational Exposure) is available for performing the needed calculations for several diseases. MOX was written to asses the effect of radiation exposure on Hanford nuclear workers. For this application, analyses have been based on cumulative exposure computed (by MOX) from annual records of radiation exposure obtained from personal dosimeter readings. This program provides tests for differences and trends among subcategories defined by variables such as length of employment, job category, or exposure measurements and also provides control for age, calendar year, and several other potentially confounding variables. 29 references, 2 tables

  6. Perinatal mortality and socio-spatial inequalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunice Francisca Martins

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to analyze the social inequalities in the distribution of perinatal mortality in Belo Horizonte. MATERIAL AND METHODS: the perinatal deaths of residents in Belo Horizonte in the period 2003 to 2007 were studied on the basis of the Information Systems on Mortality and Newborns. The space analysis and the Health Vulnerability Index were used to identify existing inequalities in the sanitary districts regarding coverage and risk, determined by the Odds Ratio and a value p<0.05. The multivariate analysis was used to describe a model for perinatal mortality. RESULTS: there was a proved variation in the numbers of perinatal mortality per one thousand total births in the sanitary districts (12.5 to 19.4, coverage areas (5.3 to 49.4 and areas of risk (13.2 to 20.7. The mortality rate diminished as the maternal schooling increased. The death rates deriving from asphyxia/hypoxia and non-specified fetal death grew with the increase of risk in the area. CONCLUSION: it was verified that the perinatal deaths are distributed in a differentiated form in relation to the space and the social vulnerabilities. The confrontation of this complex problem requires the establishment of intersecting partnerships.

  7. Spatial association between malaria pandemic and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B M Dansu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Malaria pandemic (MP has been linked to a range of serious health problems including premature mortality. The main objective of this research is to quantify uncertainties about impacts of malaria on mortality. A multivariate spatial regression model was developed for estimation of the risk of mortality associated with malaria across Ogun State in Nigeria, West Africa. We characterize different local governments in the data and model the spatial structure of the mortality data in infants and pregnant women. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model was considered for a space-time series of counts (mortality by constructing a likelihood-based version of a generalized Poisson regression model that combines methods for point-level misaligned data and change of support regression. A simple two-stage procedure for producing maps of predicted risk is described. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine an approximate risk on a larger scale, and geo-statistical ("Kriging" approaches were used to improve prediction at a local level. The results suggest improvement of risk prediction brought about in the second stage. The advantages and shortcomings of this approach highlight the need for further development of a better analytical methodology.

  8. Social inclusion affects elderly suicide mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yur'yev, Andriy; Leppik, Lauri; Tooding, Liina-Mai; Sisask, Merike; Värnik, Peeter; Wu, Jing; Värnik, Airi

    2010-12-01

    National attitudes towards the elderly and their association with elderly suicide mortality in 26 European countries were assessed, and Eastern and Western European countries compared. For each country, mean age-adjusted, gender-specific elderly suicide rates in the last five years for which data had been available were obtained from the WHO European Mortality Database. Questions about citizens' attitudes towards the elderly were taken from the European Social Survey. Correlations between attitudes and suicide rates were analyzed using Pearson's test. Differences between mean scores for Western and Eastern European attitudes were calculated, and data on labor-market exit ages were obtained from the EUROSTAT database. Perception of the elderly as having higher status, recognition of their economic contribution and higher moral standards, and friendly feelings towards and admiration of them are inversely correlated with suicide mortality. Suicide rates are lower in countries where the elderly live with their families more often. Elderly suicide mortality and labor-market exit age are inversely correlated. In Eastern European countries, elderly people's status and economic contribution are seen as less important. Western Europeans regard the elderly with more admiration, consider them more friendly and more often have elderly relatives in the family. The data also show gender differences. Society's attitudes influence elderly suicide mortality; attitudes towards the elderly are more favorable among Western European citizens; and extended labor-market inclusion of the elderly is a suicide-protective factor.

  9. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  10. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  11. Current therapies and mortality in acromegaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Găloiu, S; Poiană, C

    2015-01-01

    Acromegaly is a rare disease most frequently due to a GH secreting pituitary adenoma. Without an appropriate therapy, life of patients with acromegaly can be shortened with ten years. Pituitary surgery is usually the first line therapy for GH secreting pituitary adenomas. A meta-analysis proved that mortality is much lower in operated patients, even uncured, than the entire group of patients and is similar with the general population in patients with GH30% utilization of SRAs reported a lower mortality ratio than studies with lower percentages of SRA administration. Although therapy with DA has long been used in patients with acromegaly, there are no studies reporting its effect on mortality, but its efficacy is limited by the low remission rate obtained. The use of conventional external radiotherapy, although with good remission rate in time, was linked with increased mortality, mostly due to cerebrovascular diseases. Mortality in acromegaly can be reduced to expected levels from general population by using modern therapies either in monotherapy or by using multimodal approaches in experienced centers.

  12. [In-hospital mortality due to stroke].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Lucci, Federico; Pujol Lereis, Virginia; Ameriso, Sebastián; Povedano, Guillermo; Díaz, María F; Hlavnicka, Alejandro; Wainsztein, Néstor A; Ameriso, Sebastián F

    2013-01-01

    Overall mortality due to stroke has decreased in the last three decades probable due to a better control of vascular risk factors. In-hospital mortality of stroke patients has been estimated to be between 6 and 14% in most of the series reported. However, data from recent clinical trials suggest that these figures may be substantially lower. Data from FLENI Stroke Data Bank and institutional mortality records between 2000 and 2010 were reviewed. Ischemic stroke subtypes were classified according to TOAST criteria and hemorrhagic stroke subtypes were classified as intraparenchymal hematoma, aneurismatic subarachnoid hemorrhage, arterio-venous malformation, and other intraparenchymal hematomas. A total of 1514 patients were studied. Of these, 1079 (71%) were ischemic strokes,39% large vessels, 27% cardioembolic, 9% lacunar, 14% unknown etiology, and 11% others etiologies. There were 435 (29%) hemorrhagic strokes, 27% intraparenchymal hematomas, 30% aneurismatic subarachnoid hemorrhage, 25% arterio-venous malformation, and 18% other intraparenchymal hematomas. Moreover, 38 in-hospital deaths were recorded (17 ischemic strokes and 21 hemorrhagic strokes), accounting for 2.5% overall mortality (1.7% in ischemic strokes and 4.8% in hemorrhagic strokes). No deaths occurred associated with the use of intravenous fibrinolytics occurred. In our Centre in-hospital mortality in patients with stroke was low. Management of these patients in a Centre dedicated to neurological diseases along with a multidisciplinary approach from medical and non-medical staff trained in the care of cerebrovascular diseases could, at least in part, account for these results.

  13. Mortality risk factor analysis in colonic perforation: would retroperitoneal contamination increase mortality in colonic perforation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Ri Na; Kye, Bong-Hyeon; Kim, Gun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Cho, Hyeon-Min

    2017-10-01

    Colonic perforation is a lethal condition presenting high morbidity and mortality in spite of urgent surgical treatment. This study investigated the surgical outcome of patients with colonic perforation associated with retroperitoneal contamination. Retrospective analysis was performed for 30 patients diagnosed with colonic perforation caused by either inflammation or ischemia who underwent urgent surgical treatment in our facility from January 2005 to December 2014. Patient characteristics were analyzed to find risk factors correlated with increased postoperative mortality. Using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) audit system, the mortality and morbidity rates were estimated to verify the surgical outcomes. Patients with retroperitoneal contamination, defined by the presence of retroperitoneal air in the preoperative abdominopelvic CT, were compared to those without retroperitoneal contamination. Eight out of 30 patients (26.7%) with colonic perforation had died after urgent surgical treatment. Factors associated with mortality included age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and the ischemic cause of colonic perforation. Three out of 6 patients (50%) who presented retroperitoneal contamination were deceased. Although the patients with retroperitoneal contamination did not show significant increase in the mortality rate, they showed significantly higher ASA physical status classification than those without retroperitoneal contamination. The mortality rate predicted from Portsmouth POSSUM was higher in the patients with retroperitoneal contamination. Patients presenting colonic perforation along with retroperitoneal contamination demonstrated severe comorbidity. However, retroperitoneal contamination was not found to be correlated with the mortality rate.

  14. Social Capital and Human Mortality: Explaining the Rural Paradox with County-Level Mortality Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tse-Chuan; Jensen, Leif; Haran, Murali

    2011-01-01

    The "rural paradox" refers to standardized mortality rates in rural areas that are unexpectedly low in view of well-known economic and infrastructural disadvantages there. We explore this paradox by incorporating social capital, a promising explanatory factor that has seldom been incorporated into residential mortality research. We do so while…

  15. Stochastic portfolio specific mortality and the quantification of mortality basis risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plat, R.

    2009-01-01

    In the last decade a vast literature on stochastic mortality models has been developed. However, these models are often not directly applicable to insurance portfolios because: (a) For insurers and pension funds it is more relevant to model mortality rates measured in insured amounts instead of

  16. Evaluation of cardiac surgery mortality rates: 30-day mortality or longer follow-up?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H. H.; de Mol, Bas A. J. M.; Speekenbrink, Ron G. H.; Versteegh, Michel I. M.; Brandon Bravo Bruinsma, George J.; Bots, Michiel L.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of our study was to investigate early mortality after cardiac surgery and to determine the most adequate follow-up period for the evaluation of mortality rates. Information on all adult cardiac surgery procedures in 10 of 16 cardiothoracic centres in Netherlands from 2007 until 2010 was

  17. Maternal Mortality in Women with Epilepsy

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Holohan, M

    2016-10-01

    It is estimated that, in Ireland, there are 10,000 women with epilepsy of childbearing potential1. In this paper the maternal mortality rate for women with epilepsy attending the Rotunda Hospital Epilepsy Clinic 2004 - 2013 was determined. There were 3 maternal deaths in women with epilepsy during this time, which represents a mortality rate of 0.8%. In those women who died, there were concerns in relation to risks to the foetus by taking Anti-Epileptic Drugs (AED) and also issues with access to neurology services before pregnancy, acceptance of specialist support and lack of consistency in advice from health care professionals outside of Ireland. Implementing the nationally agreed care plan for women with epilepsy will improve the quality of care given and potentially we will see a reduction in maternal mortality in these women.

  18. Culturally divergent responses to mortality salience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma-Kellams, Christine; Blascovich, Jim

    2011-08-01

    Two experiments compared the effects of death thoughts, or mortality salience, on European and Asian Americans. Research on terror management theory has demonstrated that in Western cultural groups, individuals typically employ self-protective strategies in the face of death-related thoughts. Given fundamental East-West differences in self-construal (i.e., the independent vs. interdependent self), we predicted that members of Eastern cultural groups would affirm other people, rather than defend and affirm the self, after encountering conditions of mortality salience. We primed European Americans and Asian Americans with either a death or a control prime and examined the effect of this manipulation on attitudes about a person who violates cultural norms (Study 1) and on attributions about the plight of an innocent victim (Study 2). Mortality salience promoted culturally divergent responses, leading European Americans to defend the self and Asian Americans to defend other people.

  19. Education and Cause-specific Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordahl, Helene; Lange, Theis; Osler, Merete

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Differential exposures to behavioral risk factors have been shown to play an important mediating role on the education-mortality relation. However, little is known about the extent to which educational attainment interacts with health behavior, possibly through differential...... vulnerability. METHODS: In a cohort study of 76,294 participants 30 to 70 years of age, we estimated educational differences in cause-specific mortality from 1980 through 2009 and the mediating role of behavioral risk factors (smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, and body mass index). With the use...... of marginal structural models and three-way effect decomposition, we simultaneously regarded the behavioral risk factors as intermediates and clarified the role of their interaction with educational exposure. RESULTS: Rate differences in mortality comparing participants with low to high education were 1...

  20. Unemployment and mortality: evidence from the PSID.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliday, Timothy J

    2014-07-01

    We use micro-data to investigate the relationship between unemployment and mortality in the United States using Logistic regression on a sample of over 16,000 individuals. We consider baselines from 1984 to 1993 and investigate mortality up to ten years from the baseline. We show that poor local labor market conditions are associated with higher mortality risk for working-aged men and, specifically, that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate increases their probability of dying within one year of baseline by 6%. There is little to no such relationship for people with weaker labor force attachments such as women or the elderly. Our results contribute to a growing body of work that suggests that poor economic conditions pose health risks and illustrate an important contrast with studies based on aggregate data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Cognitive impairment and mortality among nonagenarians

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kjeld; Nybo, Hanne; Gaist, David

    2002-01-01

    Cognitive impairment has been associated with increased mortality. Most studies, however, have only included small numbers, if at all, of the very old. In a large nationwide survey of all Danes born in 1905 and still alive in 1998, where the baseline examination was conducted, we examined...... the impact of cognitive impairment on mortality over a 2-year period. No cognitive impairment was defined as a score of 24-30 points on the Mini Mental State Examination, mild cognitive impairment was defined as a score of 18-23 points, and severe impairment was defined as a score of 0-17 points. Cox...... regression analysis was applied to adjust for a number of known and suspected factors known or suspected of being associated with cognition and mortality (e.g. sociodemographic factors, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, depressive symptoms, and physical abilities), and yielded hazard ratios (95% confidence...

  2. Severe periodontitis and higher cirrhosis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ladegaard Grønkjær, Lea; Holmstrup, Palle; Schou, Søren

    2018-01-01

    Background Periodontitis and edentulism are prevalent in patients with cirrhosis, but their clinical significance is largely unknown. Objective The objective of this article is to determine the association of severe periodontitis and edentulism with mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Methods...... A total of 184 cirrhosis patients underwent an oral examination. All-cause and cirrhosis-related mortality was recorded. The associations of periodontitis and edentulism with mortality were explored by Kaplan–Meier survival plots and Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for age, gender, cirrhosis...... etiology, Child–Pugh score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, smoker status, present alcohol use, comorbidity, and nutritional risk score. Results The total follow-up time was 74,197 days (203.14 years). At entry, 44% of the patients had severe periodontitis and 18% were edentulous. Forty...

  3. The effect of college education on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckles, Kasey; Hagemann, Andreas; Malamud, Ofer; Morrill, Melinda; Wozniak, Abigail

    2016-12-01

    We exploit exogenous variation in years of completed college induced by draft-avoidance behavior during the Vietnam War to examine the impact of college on adult mortality. Our estimates imply that increasing college attainment from the level of the state at the 25th percentile of the education distribution to that of the state at the 75th percentile would decrease cumulative mortality for cohorts in our sample by 8 to 10 percent relative to the mean. Most of the reduction in mortality is from deaths due to cancer and heart disease. We also explore potential mechanisms, including differential earnings and health insurance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Association between Integration Policies and Immigrants' Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ikram, Umar Z; Malmusi, Davide; Juel, Knud

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To integrate immigrants into their societies, European countries have adopted different types of policies, which may influence health through both material and psychosocial determinants. Recent studies have suggested poorer health outcomes for immigrants living in countries with poorly...... confounders and data comparability issues (e.g., French cross-sectional data) may affect the findings, this study suggests that different macro-level policy contexts may influence immigrants' mortality. Comparable mortality registration systems across Europe along with detailed socio-demographic information...... with their peers in the Netherlands, Turkish-born immigrants had higher all-cause mortality in Denmark (MRR men 1.92; 95% CI 1.74-2.13 and women 2.11; 1.80-2.47) but lower in France (men 0.64; 0.59-0.69 and women 0.58; 0.51-0.67). A similar pattern emerged for Moroccan-born immigrants. The relative differences...

  5. Visualizing Mortality Dynamics in the Lexis Diagram

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rau, Roland; Bohk-Ewald, Christina; Muszynska, Magdalena M

    This book visualizes mortality dynamics in the Lexis diagram. While the standard approach of plotting death rates is also covered, the focus in this book is on the depiction of rates of mortality improvement over age and time. This rather novel approach offers a more intuitive understanding...... of the underlying dynamics, enabling readers to better understand whether period- or cohort-effects were instrumental for the development of mortality in a particular country. Besides maps for single countries, the book includes maps on the dynamics of selected causes of death in the United States...... Software to produce these types of surface maps. Readers are encouraged to use the presented tools to visualize other demographic data or any event that can be measured by age and calendar time, allowing them to adapt the methods to their respective research interests. The intended audience is anyone who...

  6. Mortality in patients with Parkinson's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wermuth, L; Stenager, E; Stenager, E

    1995-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: After the introduction of L-dopa the mortality rate in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients has changed, but is still higher than in the background population. MATERIAL & METHODS: Mortality, age at death and cause of death in a group of PD patients compared with the background population....... In the background population the median age at death was 80.69 years for men and 84.37 years for women. The SMR for men was 1.92 and for women 2.47. Infections, in particular lung infections, and heart diseases were the most common causes of death. Seventy percent of the death certificates had PD as a diagnosis....... CONCLUSION: It is likely that several factors can influence the changed mortality of PD: more effective treatment, changing diagnostic practice, and inter-disease competition....

  7. Leisure Time Physical Activity and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnsen, Nina Føns; Ekblond, Annette; Thomsen, Birthe Lykke

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Some studies indicate that a large part of the beneficial effect of physical activity on mortality is confined to a threshold effect of participation. METHODS: Self-reported physical activity was investigated in relation to all-cause mortality in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health...... cohort, including 29,129 women and 26,576 men aged 50-64 years at baseline 1993-1997. Using Cox proportional hazards models we investigated the associations between mortality rate and leisure time physical activity by exploring 1) participation (yes/no) in each type of activity; 2) a simple dose...... in specific leisure time physical activities, but not with more time spent on those activities. This could suggest that avoiding a sedative lifestyle is more important than a high volume of activity. Nonparticipation in these types of physical activity may be considered as risk factors....

  8. Nutrient enrichment increases mortality of mangroves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine E Lovelock

    Full Text Available Nutrient enrichment of the coastal zone places intense pressure on marine communities. Previous studies have shown that growth of intertidal mangrove forests is accelerated with enhanced nutrient availability. However, nutrient enrichment favours growth of shoots relative to roots, thus enhancing growth rates but increasing vulnerability to environmental stresses that adversely affect plant water relations. Two such stresses are high salinity and low humidity, both of which require greater investment in roots to meet the demands for water by the shoots. Here we present data from a global network of sites that documents enhanced mortality of mangroves with experimental nutrient enrichment at sites where high sediment salinity was coincident with low rainfall and low humidity. Thus the benefits of increased mangrove growth in response to coastal eutrophication is offset by the costs of decreased resilience due to mortality during drought, with mortality increasing with soil water salinity along climatic gradients.

  9. Maternal education and child mortality in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grépin, Karen A; Bharadwaj, Prashant

    2015-12-01

    In 1980, Zimbabwe rapidly expanded access to secondary schools, providing a natural experiment to estimate the impact of increased maternal secondary education on child mortality. Exploiting age specific exposure to these reforms, we find that children born to mothers most likely to have benefited from the policies were about 21% less likely to die than children born to slightly older mothers. We also find that increased education leads to delayed age at marriage, sexual debut, and first birth and that increased education leads to better economic opportunities for women. We find little evidence supporting other channels through which increased education might affect child mortality. Expanding access to secondary schools may greatly accelerate declines in child mortality in the developing world today. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A Relational Database of WHO Mortality Data Prepared to Facilitate Global Mortality Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert de Roos

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Detailed world mortality data such as collected by the World Health Organization gives a wealth of information about causes of death worldwide over a time span of 60 year. However, the raw mortality data in text format as provided by the WHO is not directly suitable for systematic research and data mining. In this Data Paper, a relational database is presented that is created from the raw WHO mortality data set and includes mortality rates, an ICD-code table and country reference data. This enriched database, as a corpus of global mortality data, can be readily imported in relational databases but can also function as the data source for other types of databases. The use of this database can therefore greatly facilitate global epidemiological research that may provide new clues to genetic or environmental factors in the origins of diseases.

  11. Community Level Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Madagascar

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    This paper explores the effect of risk and socioeconomic factors on maternal mortality at the ... to study maternal mortality, however, studying maternal mortality at the community ... causes of maternal mortality at the country level in ... Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, .... cyclones, and crime can be associated with.

  12. Mortality in people with type 2 diabetes in the UK

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulnier, H.E.; Seaman, H.E.; Raleigh, V.S.; Soedamah-Muthu, S.S.; Colhoun, H.M.; Lawrenson, R.A.

    2006-01-01

    Aims Under-reporting of diabetes on death certificates contributes to the unreliable estimates of mortality as a result of diabetes. The influence of obesity on mortality in Type 2 diabetes is not well documented. We aimed to study mortality from diabetes and the influence of obesity on mortality in

  13. Income distribution and mortality in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Lindholm

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The hypothesis that a high income inequality on a societal level is associated with poor health outcomes has been both rejected and accepted in empirical studies. Whether the influence of economic circumstances on health operates at the individual level or societal level has important implications on policy and intervention alternatives. The objective of this study was to analyse the relationship between income inequality and mortality in Swedish municipalities and if the relationship varies depending on the mean income or on the time-lag between income inequality and mortality.

    Methods: The study was based on register data on mean income and income inequality (Gini coefficients from Statistics Sweden 1982 and 1998, aggregated on the municipality level. Data on age-standardised death rates per 100,000 persons were obtained for 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2002. The analysis on 1998 was a test of the robustness of the results.

    Results: The relationship between high income inequality in 1982 and mortality in 1983 was negative with a similar relationship in 1998. Using latency periods, the results show a decreasing trend of mortality in relation to higher Gini coefficients. A positive relationship between Gini and mean income implies that municipalities with larger income distribution also had a higher mean income and vice versa.

    Conclusions: High income inequality does not have a negative effect on mortality in Swedish municipalities. The municipalities with high income inequality have also high mean income as opposed to many other countries. The income level seems to be more substantial for mortality than the income inequality.

  14. Estimating spatial inequalities of urban child mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Weeks

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Recent studies indicate that the traditional rural-urban dichotomy pointing to cities as places of better health in the developing world can be complicated by poverty differentials. Knowledge of spatial patterns is essential to understanding the processes that link individual demographic outcomes to characteristics of a place. A significant limitation, however, is the lack of spatial data and methods that offer flexibility in data inputs. OBJECTIVE This paper tackles some of the issues in calculating intra-urban child mortality by combining multiple data sets in Accra, Ghana and applying a new method developed by Rajaratnam et al. (2010 that efficiently uses summary birth histories for creating local-level measures of under-five child mortality (5q0. Intra-urban 5q0 rates are then compared with characteristics of the environment that may be linked to child mortality. METHODS Rates of child mortality are calculated for 16 urban zones within Accra for birth cohorts from 1987 to 2006. Estimates are compared to calculated 5q0 rates from full birth histories. 5q0 estimates are then related to zone measures of slum characteristics, housing quality, health facilities, and vegetation using a simple trendline R2 analysis. RESULTS Results suggest the potential value of the Rajaratnam et al. method at the micro-spatial scale. Estimated rates indicate that there is variability in child mortality between zones, with a spread of up to 50 deaths per 1,000 births. Furthermore, there is evidence that child mortality is connected to environmental factors such as housing quality, slum-like conditions, and neighborhood levels of vegetation.

  15. [Current tuberculosis mortality world-wide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haefliger, E; Rieder, H L

    1992-04-21

    The mortality rate still is an important index for assessment of tuberculosis. Statistical records are kept on the mortality rate on a worldwide basis--more than in the case of other tuberculosis parameters. They allow us to make valuable comparisons. They are also useful because the mortality is closely related to the morbidity. The present thesis is based on comparative figures from the 1989 volume of the WHO Health Statistics Annual. Various countries have been specially selected by the publisher--and subsequently also by us--for sake of clarity. The figures vary strongly within these countries, which was to be expected. The mortality rate varies in Europe (for each 100,000 residents) e.g. from 0.2 in the Netherlands to 8.15 in the Soviet Union. In the Americas the rates vary from 0.4 for Canada to 12.9 for Ecuador. In the Western Pacific region the mortality rates vary from 0.35 for Australia to 14.65 for China. On a worldwide basis, the share of deaths from tuberculosis among all causes of death varies from 0.02% in the Netherlands to 2.10% in the Republic of Korea. The relation of tuberculosis deaths with regard to sexes in Switzerland: 75.7% men, 24.3% women, which is more or less the European average. The lower the mortality rate for tuberculosis are, the lower the difference between the sexes appears to be. Similar facts are found with regard to the distribution of tuberculosis deaths according to age groups: the lower the tuberculosis rate, the more tuberculosis is found in older age groups. The tuberculosis deaths are percentage-wise similarly distributed to the respiratory organs and the other tuberculosis forms.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  16. Adult mortality and children's transition into marriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofya Krutikova

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS and other diseases is posited to affect children through a number of pathways. On top of health and education outcomes, adult mortality can have significant effects on children by influencing demographic outcomes including the timing of marriage. This paper examines marriage outcomes for a sample of children interviewed in Tanzania in the early 1990s and re-interviewed in 2004. We find that while girls who became paternal orphans married at significantly younger ages, orphanhood had little effect on boys. On the other hand, non-parental deaths in the household affect the timing of marriage for boys.

  17. Mortality of fecal bacteria in seawater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Lara, J.; Menon, P.; Servais, P.; Billen, G.

    1991-01-01

    The authors propose a method for determining the mortality rate for allochthonous bacteria released in aquatic environments without interference due to the loss of culturability in specific culture media. This method consists of following the disappearance of radioactivity from the trichloracetic acid-insoluble fraction in water samples to which [ 3 H]thymidine-prelabeled allochthonous bacteria have been added. In coastal seawater, they found that the actual rate of disappearance of fecal bacteria was 1 order of magnitude lower than the rate of loss of culturability on specific media. Minor adaptation of the procedure may facilitate assessment of the effect of protozoan grazing and bacteriophage lysis on the overall bacterial mortality rate

  18. The Ontario Hydro mortality surveillance programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, T.W.

    1985-01-01

    The Ontario Hydro mortality surveillance programme was the first such study established in any group of radiation workers. Copies of annual reports are available to senior officials of both management and union and to members of the general public. Apart from an elevated Standardized Mortality Ratio in the 15.0 - 19.9 cSv range, there is no suggestion of any rising cancer death rate with increased lifetime radiation dose. It should be noted that employees who had left before pensionable age were not included in the study. Results of the study are presented in tabular form

  19. An integrated national mortality surveillance system for death registration and mortality surveillance, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiwei; Wu, Xiaoling; Lopez, Alan D; Wang, Lijun; Cai, Yue; Page, Andrew; Yin, Peng; Liu, Yunning; Li, Yichong; Liu, Jiangmei; You, Jinling; Zhou, Maigeng

    2016-01-01

    In China, sample-based mortality surveillance systems, such as the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention's disease surveillance points system and the Ministry of Health's vital registration system, have been used for decades to provide nationally representative data on health status for health-care decision-making and performance evaluation. However, neither system provided representative mortality and cause-of-death data at the provincial level to inform regional health service needs and policy priorities. Moreover, the systems overlapped to a considerable extent, thereby entailing a duplication of effort. In 2013, the Chinese Government combined these two systems into an integrated national mortality surveillance system to provide a provincially representative picture of total and cause-specific mortality and to accelerate the development of a comprehensive vital registration and mortality surveillance system for the whole country. This new system increased the surveillance population from 6 to 24% of the Chinese population. The number of surveillance points, each of which covered a district or county, increased from 161 to 605. To ensure representativeness at the provincial level, the 605 surveillance points were selected to cover China's 31 provinces using an iterative method involving multistage stratification that took into account the sociodemographic characteristics of the population. This paper describes the development and operation of the new national mortality surveillance system, which is expected to yield representative provincial estimates of mortality in China for the first time.

  20. Sex differences in mortality by ethnic background

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oksuzyan, Anna; Drefahl, Sven; Jacobsen, Rune

    migrant effect and predominantly male migration from non-Western countries to Denmark and Sweden in 1960-70s, as well as high fertility in their female spouses, we expect to find even smaller sex differential mortality among migrants than in the ethnic Danish and Swedish populations. We use high...

  1. Epidemiological study of mortality in Palomares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinilla, P.M.; Campos, P.M.; Tudanca, F.S.

    1987-01-01

    Since the 17th January 1966, the inhabitants of Palomares have been exposed to radiation doses of plutonium-239 caused by the nuclear accident which happened on that date when 2 U.S.A. force planes collided. General and infant mortality rates, birth rates average age at death and tumor studies are reviewed for Palomares and the central village of Guazamara. (author)

  2. Short Communication - Mortality associated with cardiovascular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aims of present study were; to determine the mortality rate related to cardiovascular diseases and the causes of those deaths in local hospitals. We conducted a cross sectional study carried out from January 2005 to June 2006, in three hospitals of Lomé. All deaths registered in the departments of cardiology and ...

  3. Supplement use and mortality: the SENECA study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brzozowska, A.; Kaluza, J.; Knoops, K.T.B.; Groot, de C.P.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    Background It is hypothesis that in relatively healthy older people supplement usage can be consider as healthy life style habit and as such can positively influence longevity. Aim of the study To determine whether supplement use was associated with all-cause mortality in the participants of the

  4. Body mass index and poststroke mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Petersen, Hans Gregers

    2008-01-01

    Background: Obesity is an established cardiovascular risk factor. We studied the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality after stroke. Methods: A registry started in 2001 with the aim to register all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark now includes 21,884 patients...

  5. [Family planning can reduce maternal mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M

    1987-01-01

    Although the maternal mortality rate receives no newspaper headlines, the number of mothers dying throughout the world is equivalent to a full jumbo jet crashing every 5 hours. Population surveys carried out between 1981-83 by Family Health International indicated maternal mortality rates of 1.9/1000 live births in Menoufia, Egypt, and 7.2/1000 in Bali, Indonesia. 20-25% of all deaths in women aged 15-49 were directly related to pregnancy and delivery, compared to 1% in western countries where there is better prenatal care, medical assistance in almost all deliveries, and elimination of most high risk pregnancies through voluntary fertility control. Maternal mortality could be controlled by teaching traditional midwives to identify high risk patients at the beginning of their pregnancies and to refer them to appropriate health services. Maternal survival would also be improved if all women were in good health at the beginning of pregnancy. Families should be taught to seek medical care for the mother in cases of prolonged labor; many women arrive at hospitals beyond hope of recovery after hours or days of futile labor. Health policy makers should set new priorities. Sri Lanka, for example, has a lower per capita income than Pakistan, but also a lower maternal mortality rate because of better use of family planning services, more emphasis on prenatal care, and a tradition of care and attention on the part of the public health services.

  6. Tackling maternal mortality in Africa after 2015

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    maternal mortality reduction. In April 2001, leaders of African countries met in Abuja and pledged to allocate .... democratic leadership must be made to appreciate the connection between development and the well- being of ..... gouvernance implique davantage l'accent sur la démocratie participative (qui inclut les femmes),.

  7. Diagnostic interval and mortality in colorectal cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tørring, Marie Louise; Frydenberg, Morten; Hamilton, William

    2012-01-01

    Objective To test the theory of a U-shaped association between time from the first presentation of symptoms in primary care to the diagnosis (the diagnostic interval) and mortality after diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC). Study Design and Setting Three population-based studies in Denmark...

  8. Canadian Indian mortality during the 1980s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trovato, F

    2000-01-01

    This study concerns itself with an investigation of general and cause-specific mortality differentials between Canadian Registered Indians (a subset of all aboriginals) and the larger Canadian population over two points in time, 1981 and 1991. Multivariate analyses are executed separately across four segments of the life cycle: adulthood, infancy, early childhood and late childhood. With respect to adults, Indians share relatively high rates of suicide, homicide and accidental causes of death; over time, their conditional risks of death due to cancer and circulatory afflictions have gone up significantly. Mortality disadvantages for the Indians are also pronounced in infancy, early childhood (ages 1-4) and late childhood (ages 5-14). Suicide, accidents, and violence constitute serious problems among 5-14 year olds, while infectious/parasitic, respiratory and circulatory complications, plus accidents and violence, are principle killers in infancy. For children aged 1-4, respiratory problems and accidents/violence are prime causes of premature death. This less-than-optimal mortality profile is reflective of persistent problems associated with prolonged socioeconomic marginalization. The temporal pattern of change in chronic/degenerative disease mortality among adult Indians suggests a movement of this population toward a mature stage of epidemiological transition.

  9. Topical beta-blockers and mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müskens, Rogier P. H. M.; Wolfs, Roger C. W.; Witteman, Jacqueline C. M.; Hofman, Albert; de Jong, Paulus T. V. M.; Stricker, Bruno H. C.; Jansonius, Nomdo M.

    2008-01-01

    To study the associations between long-term and short-term use of topical beta-blockers and mortality. Prospective population-based cohort study. To examine long-term effects, 3842 participants aged 55 years and older were recruited. To examine short-term effects, 484 incident beta-blocker users and

  10. Topical beta-Blockers and Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muskens, Rogier P. H. M.; Wolfs, Roger C. W.; Wittenian, Jacqueline C. M.; Hofman, Albert; de Jong, Paulus T. V. M.; Stricker, Bruno H. C.; Jansonius, Nomdo M.

    Purpose: To study the associations between long-term and short-term use of topical beta-blockers and mortality. Design: Prospective population-based cohort study. Participants: To examine long-term effects, 3842 participants aged 55 years and older were recruited. To examine short-term effects, 484

  11. Factors Associated With Mortality of Thyroid Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Yosuke; Ono, Sachiko; Yasunaga, Hideo; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Tanaka, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Thyroid storm is a life-threatening and emergent manifestation of thyrotoxicosis. However, predictive features associated with fatal outcomes in this crisis have not been clearly defined because of its rarity. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations of patient characteristics, treatments, and comorbidities with in-hospital mortality. We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with thyroid storm using a national inpatient database in Japan from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2014. Of approximately 21 million inpatients in the database, we identified 1324 patients diagnosed with thyroid storm. The mean (standard deviation) age was 47 (18) years, and 943 (71.3%) patients were female. The overall in-hospital mortality was 10.1%. The number of patients was highest in the summer season. The most common comorbidity at admission was cardiovascular diseases (46.6%). Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that higher mortality was significantly associated with older age (≥60 years), central nervous system dysfunction at admission, nonuse of antithyroid drugs and β-blockade, and requirement for mechanical ventilation and therapeutic plasma exchange combined with hemodialysis. The present study identified clinical features associated with mortality of thyroid storm using large-scale data. Physicians should pay special attention to older patients with thyrotoxicosis and coexisting central nervous system dysfunction. Future prospective studies are needed to clarify treatment options that could improve the survival outcomes of thyroid storm. PMID:26886648

  12. Growth, Mortality and Exploitation Rates of Sarotherodon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evans

    ABSTRACT. Sarotherodon melanotheron population of Dominli Lagoon in the Western Region of Ghana was studied for its growth and mortality parameters as well as exploitation rate. The study generally aimed at providing basic information necessary for the assessment and management of the fish stock in the lagoon.

  13. 8187 FIGHTING UNDERNUTRITION AND CHILD MORTALITY IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    utilises the country's Demographic and Health Survey 2008. The estimation of .... While the impact of undernutritionon wellbeing dimensions such as national productivity has ..... reduce child mortality than investment in education and reducing household density— the effects of ..... Discourse. In: Nandy A. Return from Exile.

  14. Atopy and cause-specific mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, T; Husemoen, L L N; Thuesen, Betina Heinsbæk

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Atopy is the familial or personal propensity to develop immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies against common environmental allergens and is associated with high risk of allergic disease. It has been proposed that atopy may have effects on risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer...... followed by linkage to the Danish Registry of Causes of Death to obtain information on mortality status and cause of death (median follow-up time 11.3 years). The relative mortality risk was estimated by Cox regression and expressed as hazard ratios, HRs (95% confidence intervals, CIs). RESULTS: A total...... of 1776 person died during follow-up. The mortality risk for atopics vs. non-atopics was: for all-cause mortality (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.17); neoplasms (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.69, 1.06); endocrine, nutritional and metabolic disorders (HR = 1.48, 95% CI: 0.71, 3.08); mental and behavioural disorders (HR...

  15. Obesity attenuates gender differences in cardiovascular mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xin; Tabák, Adam G; Zethelius, Björn; Yudkin, John S; Söderberg, Stefan; Laatikainen, Tiina; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Dankner, Rachel; Jousilahti, Pekka; Onat, Altan; Nilsson, Peter M; Satman, Ilhan; Vaccaro, Olga; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Qiao, Qing

    2014-10-19

    To estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in relation to obesity and gender. Data from 11 prospective cohorts from four European countries including 23 629 men and 21 965 women, aged 24 to 99 years, with a median follow-up of 7.9 years were analyzed. Hazards ratios (HR) for CVD mortality in relation to baseline body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with age as the timescale. Men had higher CVD mortality than women in all four BMI categories (obesity defined by WC, WHR or WHtR. The gender difference was slightly smaller in obese than in non-obese individuals; but the interaction was statistically significant only between gender and WC (p = 0.02), and WHtR (p = 0.01). None of the interaction terms was significant among non-diabetic individuals. Men had higher CVD mortality than women across categories of anthropometric measures of obesity. The gender difference was attenuated in obese individuals, which warrants further investigation.

  16. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2005-01-01

    measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time....

  17. An analysis of anemia and child mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brabin, B. J.; Premji, Z.; Verhoeff, F.

    2001-01-01

    The relationship of anemia as a risk factor for child mortality was analyzed by using cross-sectional, longitudinal and case-control studies, and randomized trials. Five methods of estimation were adopted: 1) the proportion of child deaths attributable to anemia; 2) the proportion of anemic children

  18. Mortality in patients with giant cell arteritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baslund, Bo; Helleberg, Marie; Faurschou, Mikkel

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine whether GCA is associated with increased mortality. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study including all individuals who between 1993 and 2011 were registered in the Danish National Hospital Register and the Danish Patholog...

  19. Political party affiliation, political ideology and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Muennig, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Ecological and cross-sectional studies have indicated that conservative political ideology is associated with better health. Longitudinal analyses of mortality are needed because subjective assessments of ideology may confound subjective assessments of health, particularly in cross-sectional analyses. Data were derived from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index data set. Cox proportional analysis models were used to determine whether political party affiliation or political ideology was associated with time to death. Also, we attempted to identify whether self-reported happiness and self-rated health acted as mediators between political beliefs and time to death. In this analysis of 32,830 participants and a total follow-up time of 498,845 person-years, we find that political party affiliation and political ideology are associated with mortality. However, with the exception of independents (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97), political party differences are explained by the participants' underlying sociodemographic characteristics. With respect to ideology, conservatives (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12) and moderates (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11) are at greater risk for mortality during follow-up than liberals. Political party affiliation and political ideology appear to be different predictors of mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agho Kingsley

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Neonatal mortality accounts for almost 40 per cent of under-five child mortality, globally. An understanding of the factors related to neonatal mortality is important to guide the development of focused and evidence-based health interventions to prevent neonatal deaths. This study aimed to identify the determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia, for a nationally representative sample of births from 1997 to 2002. Methods The data source for the analysis was the 2002–2003 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey from which survival information of 15,952 singleton live-born infants born between 1997 and 2002 was examined. Multilevel logistic regression using a hierarchical approach was performed to analyze the factors associated with neonatal deaths, using community, socio-economic status and proximate determinants. Results At the community level, the odds of neonatal death was significantly higher for infants from East Java (OR = 5.01, p = 0.00, and for North, Central and Southeast Sulawesi and Gorontalo combined (OR = 3.17, p = 0.03 compared to the lowest neonatal mortality regions of Bali, South Sulawesi and Jambi provinces. A progressive reduction in the odds was found as the percentage of deliveries assisted by trained delivery attendants in the cluster increased. The odds of neonatal death were higher for infants born to both mother and father who were employed (OR = 1.84, p = 0.00 and for infants born to father who were unemployed (OR = 2.99, p = 0.02. The odds were also higher for higher rank infants with a short birth interval (OR = 2.82, p = 0.00, male infants (OR = 1.49, p = 0.01, smaller than average-sized infants (OR = 2.80, p = 0.00, and infant's whose mother had a history of delivery complications (OR = 1.81, p = 0.00. Infants receiving any postnatal care were significantly protected from neonatal death (OR = 0.63, p = 0.03. Conclusion Public health interventions directed at reducing neonatal death should

  1. Determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titaley, Christiana R; Dibley, Michael J; Agho, Kingsley; Roberts, Christine L; Hall, John

    2008-07-09

    Neonatal mortality accounts for almost 40 per cent of under-five child mortality, globally. An understanding of the factors related to neonatal mortality is important to guide the development of focused and evidence-based health interventions to prevent neonatal deaths. This study aimed to identify the determinants of neonatal mortality in Indonesia, for a nationally representative sample of births from 1997 to 2002. The data source for the analysis was the 2002-2003 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey from which survival information of 15,952 singleton live-born infants born between 1997 and 2002 was examined. Multilevel logistic regression using a hierarchical approach was performed to analyze the factors associated with neonatal deaths, using community, socio-economic status and proximate determinants. At the community level, the odds of neonatal death was significantly higher for infants from East Java (OR = 5.01, p = 0.00), and for North, Central and Southeast Sulawesi and Gorontalo combined (OR = 3.17, p = 0.03) compared to the lowest neonatal mortality regions of Bali, South Sulawesi and Jambi provinces. A progressive reduction in the odds was found as the percentage of deliveries assisted by trained delivery attendants in the cluster increased. The odds of neonatal death were higher for infants born to both mother and father who were employed (OR = 1.84, p = 0.00) and for infants born to father who were unemployed (OR = 2.99, p = 0.02). The odds were also higher for higher rank infants with a short birth interval (OR = 2.82, p = 0.00), male infants (OR = 1.49, p = 0.01), smaller than average-sized infants (OR = 2.80, p = 0.00), and infant's whose mother had a history of delivery complications (OR = 1.81, p = 0.00). Infants receiving any postnatal care were significantly protected from neonatal death (OR = 0.63, p = 0.03). Public health interventions directed at reducing neonatal death should address community, household and individual level factors

  2. Mortality in patients with respiratory distress syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez Saubidet, I; Maskin, L P; Rodríguez, P O; Bonelli, I; Setten, M; Valentini, R

    2016-01-01

    Mortality in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is decreasing, although its prognosis after hospital discharge and the prognostic accuracy of Berlin's new ARDS stratification are uncertain. We did a restrospective analysis of hospital and 6 month mortality of patients with ARDS admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of a Univeristy Hospital in Buenos Aires, between January 2008 and June 2011. ARDS was defined by PaO2/FiO2 lower than 200 mmHg under ventilation with at least 10 cm H2O of PEEP and a FiO2 higher or equal than 0.5. and the presence of bilateral infiltrates in chest radiography, in the absence of cardiogenic acute pulmonary edema, during the first 72 hs of mechanical ventilation. Mortality associated risk factors, the use of rescue therapies and Berlin's stratification for moderate and severe ARDS patients were considered. Ninety eight patients were included; mean age was 59±19 years old, 42,9% had mayor co-morbidities; APACHE II at admission was 22±7; SOFA at day 1 was 8±3. Prone position ventilation was applied in 20,4% and rescue measures in 12,2% (12 patients with nitric oxide and 1 with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). Hospital and 6 months mortality were 37.7 and 43.8% respectively. After logistic regression analysis, only age, the presence of septic shock at admission, Ppl >30 cmH2O, and major co-morbidities were independently associated with hospital outcome. There was no difference between moderate and severe groups (41,2 and 36,8% respectively; p=0,25). In this cohort, including patients with severe hypoxemia and high percentage of mayor co-morbidities, ARDS associated mortality was lower than some previous studies. There was no increase in mortality after hospital discharge. There was no difference in mortality between moderate and severe groups according to Berlin's definition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  3. The Change of Perinatal Mortality Over Three Decades in a Reference Centre in the Aegean Region: Neonatal Mortality has decreased but Foetal Mortality Remains Unchanged

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilgün Kültürsay

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Perinatal, foetal and neonatal mortality statistics are important to show the development of a health care system in a country. However, in our country there are very few national and regional data about the changing pattern of perinatal neonatal mortality along with the development of new technologies in this area. Aims: Evaluation of the changes in mortality rates and the causes of perinatal and neonatal deaths within years in a perinatal reference centre which serves a high-risk population. Study Design: Cross-sectional retrospective study. Methods: The perinatal, neonatal and foetal mortality rates in the years 1979-1980 (1st time point and 1988-1989 (2nd time point were compared with the year 2008 (3rd time point. The causes of mortality were assessed by Wigglesworth classification and death reports. The neonatal mortality in the neonatal intensive care unit was also calculated. Results: Foetal mortality rates were 44/1000, 31.4/1000 and 41.75/1000 births, perinatal mortality rates were 35.6/1000, 18.8/1000 and 9/1000 births, and neonatal mortality rates were 35.6/1000, 18.8/1000 and 9/1000 live births for the three study time points, respectively. The mortality rate in neonatal intensive care unit decreased consistently from 33%, to 22.6% and 10%, respectively, together with decreasing neonatal mortality rates. The causes of perinatal deaths were foetal death 85%, immaturity 4%, and lethal congenital malformations 8% according to Wigglesworth classification in 2008, showing the high impact of foetal deaths on this high perinatal mortality rate. Infectious causes of neonatal deaths decreased but congenital anomalies increased in the last decades. Conclusion: Although neonatal mortality rate decreased significantly; foetal mortality rate has stayed unchanged since the late eighties. In order to decrease foetal and perinatal mortality rates more efficiently, reducing consanguineous marriages and providing better antenatal care for

  4. Remotely sensed predictors of conifer tree mortality during severe drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodrick, P. G.; Asner, G. P.

    2017-11-01

    Widespread, drought-induced forest mortality has been documented on every forested continent over the last two decades, yet early pre-mortality indicators of tree death remain poorly understood. Remotely sensed physiological-based measures offer a means for large-scale analysis to understand and predict drought-induced mortality. Here, we use laser-guided imaging spectroscopy from multiple years of aerial surveys to assess the impact of sustained canopy water loss on tree mortality. We analyze both gross canopy mortality in 2016 and the change in mortality between 2015 and 2016 in millions of sampled conifer forest locations throughout the Sierra Nevada mountains in California. On average, sustained water loss and gross mortality are strongly related, and year-to-year water loss within the drought indicates subsequent mortality. Both relationships are consistent after controlling for location and tree community composition, suggesting that these metrics may serve as indicators of mortality during a drought.

  5. Cancer mortality of Swiss men by occupation, 1979-1982.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minder, C E; Beer-Porizek, V

    1992-01-01

    Results of a study of male cancer mortality are presented by occupation. The data base consisted of the 1979-1982 mortality register and 1980 census data from Switzerland. In a novel approach, a linked subset of death certificates and census records was used to correct the numerator-denominator bias of standardized mortality ratios and their confidence intervals. Agricultural occupations exhibited low cancer mortality (exception: stomach cancer). Electricians suffered excess mortality from cancer of several sites. Foundry and chemical workers had elevated mortality risks for digestive tract cancers. Other metal workers suffered from high mortality from cancers of the respiratory organs. Construction workers were subject to high mortality from cancers of the upper digestive tract and lungs. Innkeepers, cooks, and owners or managers of guest houses had high rates of cancers of the digestive system. Occupations using combustion-powered equipment suffered from excess lung cancer mortality. In general the results of the study agree with those of several other studies.

  6. Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms as Predictors of All-Cause Mortality among People with Insulin-Naïve Type 2 Diabetes: 17-Year Follow-Up of the Second Nord-Trøndelag Health Survey (HUNT2, Norway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjolein M Iversen

    Full Text Available To examine whether elevated anxiety and/or depressive symptoms are related to all-cause mortality in people with Type 2 diabetes, not using insulin.948 participants in the community-wide Nord-Trøndelag Health Survey conducted during 1995-97 completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale with subscales of anxiety (HADS-A and depression (HADS-D. Elevated symptoms were defined as HADS-A or HADS-D ≥8. Participants with type 2 diabetes, not using insulin, were followed until November 21, 2012 or death. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate associations between baseline elevated anxiety symptoms, elevated depressive symptoms and mortality, adjusting for sociodemographic factors, HbA1c, cardiovascular disease and microvascular complications.At baseline, 8% (n = 77/948 reported elevated anxiety symptoms, 9% (n = 87/948 elevated depressive symptoms and 10% (n = 93/948 reported both. After a mean follow-up of 12 years (SD 5.1, range 0-17, 541 participants (57% had died. Participants with elevated anxiety symptoms only had a decreased mortality risk (unadjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.46-0.96. Adjustment for HbA1c attenuated this relation (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.50-1.07. Those with elevated depression symptoms alone had an increased mortality risk (fully adjusted model HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05-1.84. Having both elevated anxiety and depressive symptoms was not associated with increased mortality risk (adjusted HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.96-1.74.Elevated depressive symptoms were associated with excess mortality risk in people with Type 2 diabetes not using insulin. No significant association with mortality was found among people with elevated anxiety symptoms. Having both elevated anxiety and depressive symptoms was not associated with mortality. The hypothesis that elevated levels of anxiety symptoms leads to behavior that counteracts the adverse health effects of Type 2 diabetes needs further investigation.

  7. Early Mortality Experience in a Large Military Cohort and a Comparison of Mortality Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-24

    population-based cohort study. Ann Epidemiol 2007, 17(7):525-532. 9. Wentworth DN, Neaton JD, Rasmussen WL: An evaluation of the Social Security...Health 1992, 82(8):1145-1447. 13. Calle EE, Terrell DD: Utility of the National Death Index for ascertainment of mortality among Cancer Prevention Study...Hynes DM: A primer and comparative review of major US mortality databases. Ann Epidemiol 2002, 12(7):462-468. 18. Sesso HD, Paffenbarger RS, Lee

  8. [The analysis of general mortality by age and sex: evidence of two types of mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiani, P; Masse, H; Aubenque, M

    1984-01-01

    The departmental distributions of the probabilities of dying by age group and sex are analyzed for France in 1975. It is found that these distributions are the sum of two lognormal distributions. The authors deduce the existence of two populations that are distinguished by whether mortality was endogenous or exogenous. The relative importance of these two types of mortality is considered according to age. (summary in ENG)

  9. Ethnicity and infant mortality in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, G

    1993-06-01

    Malaysian infant mortality differentials are a worthwhile subject for study, because socioeconomic development has very clearly had a differential impact by ethnic group. The Chinese rates of infant mortality are significantly lower than the Malay or Indian rates. Instead of examining the obvious access to care issues, this study considered factors related to the culture of infant care. Practices include the Chinese confinement of the mother in the first month after childbirth ("pe'i yue") and Pillsbury's 12 normative rules for Malaysian Chinese care. Malay practices vary widely by region and history. Indian mothers are restricted by diet. Data-recording flaws do not permit analysis of Sarawak or Sabah. The general assumption that Western medicine favors better health for mothers and infants is substantiated among peninsular communities, however, there are also negative impacts which affect infant mortality. The complex interaction of factors impacting on infant mortality reported in seven previous studies is discussed. A review of these studies reveals that immediate causes are infections, injuries, and dehydration. Indirect causes are birth weight or social and behavioral factors such as household income or maternal education. Indirect factors, which are amenable to planned change and influence the biological proximate determinants of infant mortality, are identified as birth weight, maternal age at birth, short pregnancy intervals or prior reproductive loss, sex of the child, birth order, duration of breast feeding and conditions of supplementation, types of household water and sanitation, year of child's birth, maternal education, household income and composition, institution of birth, ethnicity, and rural residence. Nine factors are identified empirically as not significant: maternal hours of work in the child's first year, maternal occupation, distance from home to workplace, presence of other children or servants, incidence of epidemics in the child's first

  10. Chronic pain and mortality: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane Smith

    Full Text Available Chronic pain is common, often widespread and has a substantial impact on health and quality of life. The relationship between chronic pain and mortality is unclear. This systematic review aimed to identify and evaluate evidence for a relationship between chronic pain and mortality.A search of ten electronic databases including EMBASE and MEDLINE was conducted in March 2012, and updated until March 2014. Observational studies investigating the association between chronic or widespread pain (including fibromyalgia and mortality were included. Risk of bias was assessed and a meta-analysis was undertaken to quantify heterogeneity and pool results. A narrative review was undertaken to explore similarities and differences between the included studies.Ten studies were included in the review. Three reported significant associations between chronic or widespread pain and mortality in unadjusted results. In adjusted analyses, four studies reported a significant association. The remaining studies reported no statistically significant association. A meta-analysis showed statistically significant heterogeneity of results from studies using comparable outcome measures (n = 7(I2 = 78.8% and a modest but non-significant pooled estimate (MRR1.14,95%CI 0.95-1.37 for the relationship between chronic pain and all-cause mortality. This association was stronger when analysis was restricted to studies of widespread pain (n = 5,I2 = 82.3% MRR1.22(95%CI 0.93-1.60. The same pattern was observed with deaths from cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Heterogeneity is likely to be due to differences in study populations, follow-up time, pain phenotype, methods of analysis and use of confounding factors.This review showed a mildly increased risk of death in people with chronic pain, particularly from cancer. However, the small number of studies and methodological differences prevented clear conclusions from being drawn. Consistently applied definitions of

  11. Maternal Mortality in Nepal: Unraveling the Complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suwal, Juhee V.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishMaternal mortality has been recognised as a public health problem in the developing countries. The situation concerning maternal mortality in Nepal remained unexplored and vague until the early 1990s. By using 1996 Nepal Family Health Survey, this study discusses the maternal mortality situation in Nepal and analyses the differentials in maternal mortality by place of residence,region, ethnic and religious groups, age at death, and parity. Almost 28 percent of deaths of women in reproductive age was accountable to maternal causes.Logistic regression analysis shows ‘ethnicity,’ ‘age of women,’ and ‘number of births’ as strong predictors of maternal mortality. A number of policy recommendations are suggested to help lower maternal mortality.FrenchLa mortalité liée à la maternité est un des phénomènes de santé qui a étéidentifié dans les pays en voie de développement. La situation de la mortalitéliée à la maternité au Népal est restée inexplorée et assez vague jusqu’au débutdes années 1990. En utilisant les données du Nepal Family Health Survey de1996, cet article examine la situation de la mortalité liée à la maternité au Népalet analyse les différentiels des taux de mortalité par lieu de résidence, région,groupe ethnique et religieux, âge au décès, et parité. Presque 28 pourcent desdécès de femmes en âge de procréer sont liés à la maternité. L’analyse derégression logique démontre que « l’ethnicité », « l’âge des femmes », et le« nombre de naissances » sont de forts prédicteurs du taux des mortalités liées àla maternité.

  12. Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest

  13. Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babalola, Olufemi; Razzaque, Abdur; Bishai, David

    2018-01-01

    Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, pBangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.

  14. Exploring mortality among drug treatment clients: The relationship between treatment type and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Belinda; Zahnow, Renee; Barratt, Monica J; Best, David; Lubman, Dan I; Ferris, Jason

    2017-11-01

    Studies consistently identify substance treatment populations as more likely to die prematurely compared with age-matched general population, with mortality risk higher out-of-treatment than in-treatment. While opioid-using pharmacotherapy cohorts have been studied extensively, less evidence exists regarding effects of other treatment types, and clients in treatment for other drugs. This paper examines mortality during and following treatment across treatment modalities. A retrospective seven-year cohort was utilised to examine mortality during and in the two years following treatment among clients from Victoria, Australia, recorded on the Alcohol and Drug Information Service database by linking with National Death Index. 18,686 clients over a 12-month period were included. Crude (CMRs) and standardised mortality rates (SMRs) were analysed in terms of treatment modality, and time in or out of treatment. Higher risk of premature death was associated with residential withdrawal as the last type of treatment engagement, while mortality following counselling was significantly lower than all other treatment types in the year post-treatment. Both CMRs and SMRs were significantly higher in-treatment than post-treatment. Better understanding of factors contributing to elevated mortality risk for clients engaged in, and following treatment, is needed to ensure that treatment systems provide optimal outcomes during and after treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The Rural Inpatient Mortality Study: Does Urban-Rural County Classification Predict Hospital Mortality in California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linnen, Daniel T; Kornak, John; Stephens, Caroline

    2018-03-28

    Evidence suggests an association between rurality and decreased life expectancy. To determine whether rural hospitals have higher hospital mortality, given that very sick patients may be transferred to regional hospitals. In this ecologic study, we combined Medicare hospital mortality ratings (N = 1267) with US census data, critical access hospital classification, and National Center for Health Statistics urban-rural county classifications. Ratings included mortality for coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia across 277 California hospitals between July 2011 and June 2014. We used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the association of urban-rural county classifications on mortality ratings. Unfavorable Medicare hospital mortality rating "worse than the national rate" compared with "better" or "same." Compared with large central "metro" (metropolitan) counties, hospitals in medium-sized metro counties had 6.4 times the odds of rating "worse than the national rate" for hospital mortality (95% confidence interval = 2.8-14.8, p centers may contribute to these results, a potential factor that future research should examine.

  16. Offspring sex and parental health and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Øyvind; Mortensen, Laust H.; Vikanes, Åse

    2017-01-01

    ) number of total boy and girl offspring, 2) sex of the first and second offspring and 3) proportion of boys to total number of offspring. A sub-cohort (n = 50,736 mothers, n = 44,794 fathers) from survey data was analysed for risk factors. Mothers had increased risk of total and cardiovascular mortality...... that was consistent across approaches: cardiovascular mortality of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.11) per boy (approach 2), 1.04 (1.01-1.07) if the first offspring was a boy, and 1.06 (1.01-1.10) if the first two offspring were boys (approach 3). We found that sex of offspring was not associated with total or cardiovascular...

  17. Occupational radiation exposure and mortality study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppock, E.; Dobson, D.; Fair, M.

    1992-06-01

    An epidemiological cohort study of some 300,000 Canadians enrolled in the National Dose Registry (NDR) is being undertaken to determine if there is excess cancer or other causes of mortality among those workers who are occupationally exposed to low levels of ionizing radiation. The results of this study may provide better understanding of the dose-response relationship for low doses of ionizing radiation and aid in the verification of risk estimates for radiation-induced cancer mortality. The Department of National Health and Welfare (DNHW) is responsible for the Registry; this study is being carried out by the Bureau of Radiation and Medical Devices (BRMD) with financial assistance and co-operation of various agencies including Statistics Canada and the Atomic Energy Control Board

  18. Mortality rate in type 2 myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saaby, Lotte; Poulsen, Tina Svenstrup; Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt

    2014-01-01

    myocardial infarction, hypercholesterolemia, high p-creatinine, and diabetes mellitus. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for type 2 myocardial infarction was 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.3-3.0). With shock as the only exception, mortality was independent of the triggering conditions leading to type....../119) in those with type 2 myocardial infarction and 26% (92/360) in those with type 1 myocardial infarction (P high age, prior myocardial infarction, type 2...... 2 myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction is high, reaching approximately 50% after 2 years. Further descriptive and survival studies are needed to improve the scientific evidence on which treatment of type 2 myocardial infarction is based....

  19. The association between depression and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Gunhild Tidemann; Maartensson, Solvej; Osler, Merete

    2017-01-01

    survey- and register-based measures of depression were associated with 7-year mortality in a cohort of middle-aged Danish men. METHODS: The study was based on 10,517 men born in 1953. Depression was assessed through hospital diagnosis for the period from 1969 to 2004 and by self-reported information...... on depression, use of antidepressants and the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) from a survey in 2004, in which 58.8% (n=6292) of the men participated. Information on mortality and cause of death was retrieved from registers for the period between 2004 and 2011. RESULTS: Depression diagnosis from hospital...... reflecting past depression, but the strongest association was found for current depression as assessed by the MDI-score. LIMITATIONS: The study population consists almost exclusively of white men and the findings may not be generalizable to female populations or other races and ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS...

  20. Invited commentary: Physical activity, mortality, and genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankinen, Tuomo; Bouchard, Claude

    2007-08-01

    The importance of regular physical activity to human health has been recognized for a long time, and a physically active lifestyle is now defined as a major component of public health policies. The independent contribution of regular physical activity to lower morbidity and mortality rates is generally accepted, and the biologic mechanisms mediating these health effects are actively investigated. A few years ago, data from the Finnish Twin Registry suggested that genetic selection may account for some of the physical-activity-related benefits on mortality rates. However, results from the Swedish Twin Registry study reported by Carlsson et al. in the current issue of the Journal (Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:255-259) do not support the genetic selection hypothesis. In this commentary, the authors review the nature of the associations among physical activity level, fitness, and longevity, with special reference to the role of human genetic variation, and discuss potential reasons for different outcomes of these large twin studies.

  1. [Perinatal mortality in foreign workers (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höfling, H J; Jonas, R; Brusis, E; Lochmüller, H; Selbmann, H K; Holzmann, K; Zander, J

    1975-03-01

    From 1970 to 1972, there were 216 perinatal deaths among 5595 newborns at the I. Frauenklinik der Universität München. 54 of these deaths were children of foreign workers (so-called "Gastarbeiter"). The data have been processed on punch cards and analysed by a computer. The differences noted underwent significance testing by the CHI-Quadrat test. Only statistical significant results are published. The perinatal mortality in the above period shows no difference between foreign and German ward patients. There is, however, a significant lower perinatal mortality in private patients. We feel that this difference is due to a significant lower rate of prematures in the private patient group. The cocial status as well as higher interest and motivation in health resulting in better prenatal care are discussed as causal reasons for this fact.

  2. A Genetic Analysis of Mortality in Pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    to investigate whether there is support for genetic variation for mortality and to study the quality of fit and predictive properties of the various models. In both breeds, the model that provided the best fit to the data was the standard binomial hierarchical model. The model that performed best in terms......An analysis of mortality is undertaken in two breeds of pigs: Danish Landrace and Yorkshire. Zero-inflated and standard versions of hierarchical Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial Bayesian models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The objectives of the study were...... of the ability to predict the distribution of stillbirths was the hierarchical zero-inflated negative binomial model. The best fit of the binomial hierarchical model and of the zero-inflated hierarchical negative binomial model was obtained when genetic variation was included as a parameter. For the hierarchical...

  3. New social adaptability index predicts overall mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Barenbaum, Anna; Rodrigue, James; Rout, Preeti; Isaacs, Ross; Mukamal, Kenneth

    2011-08-01

    Definitions of underprivileged status based on race, gender and geographic location are neither sensitive nor specific; instead we proposed and validated a composite index of social adaptability (SAI). Index of social adaptability was calculated based on employment, education, income, marital status, and substance abuse, each factor contributing from 0 to 3 points. Index of social adaptability was validated in NHANES-3 by association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Weighted analysis of 19,593 subjects demonstrated mean SAI of 8.29 (95% CI 8.17-8.40). Index of social adaptability was higher in Whites, followed by Mexican-Americans and then the African-American population (ANOVA, p adaptability with a strong association with mortality, which can be used to identify underprivileged populations at risk of death.

  4. Effect of Boarding on Mortality in ICUs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stretch, Robert; Della Penna, Nicolás; Celi, Leo Anthony; Landon, Bruce E

    2018-04-01

    Hospitals use a variety of strategies to maximize the availability of limited ICU beds. Boarding, which involves assigning patients to an open bed in a different subspecialty ICU, is one such practice employed when ICU occupancy levels are high, and beds in a particular unit are unavailable. Boarding disrupts the normal geographic colocation of patients and care teams, exposing patients to nursing staff with different training and expertise to those caring for nonboarders. We analyzed whether medical ICU patients boarding in alternative specialty ICUs are at increased risk of mortality. Retrospective cohort study using an instrumental variable analysis to control for unmeasured confounding. A semiparametric bivariate probit estimation strategy was employed for the instrumental model. Propensity score matching and standard logistic regression (generalized linear modeling) were used as robustness checks. The medical ICU of a tertiary care nonprofit hospital in the United States between 2002 and 2012. All medical ICU admissions during the specified time period. None. The study population consisted of 8,429 patients of whom 1,871 were boarders. The instrumental variable model demonstrated a relative risk of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01-1.38) for ICU stay mortality for boarders. The relative risk of in-hospital mortality among boarders was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.00-1.49). GLM and propensity score matching without use of the instrument yielded similar estimates. Instrumental variable estimates are for marginal patients, whereas generalized linear modeling and propensity score matching yield population average effects. Mortality increased with boarding of critically ill patients. Further research is needed to identify safer practices for managing patients during periods of high ICU occupancy.

  5. Size-dependent mortality rate profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roa-Ureta, Ruben H

    2016-08-07

    Knowledge of mortality rates is crucial to the understanding of population dynamics in populations of free-living fish and invertebrates in marine and freshwater environments, and consequently to sustainable resource management. There is a well developed theory of population dynamics based on age distributions that allow direct estimation of mortality rates. However, for most cases the aging of individuals is difficult or age distributions are not available for other reasons. The body size distribution is a widely available alternative although the theory underlying the formation of its shape is more complicated than in the case of age distributions. A solid theory of the time evolution of a population structured by any physiological variable has been developed in 1960s and 1970s by adapting the Hamilton-Jacobi formulation of classical mechanics, and equations to estimate the body size-distributed mortality profile have been derived for simple cases. Here I extend those results with regards to the size-distributed mortality profile to complex cases of non-stationary populations, individuals growing according to a generalised growth model and seasonally patterned recruitment pulses. I apply resulting methods to two cases in the marine environment, a benthic crustacean population that was growing during the period of observation and whose individuals grow with negative acceleration, and a sea urchin coastal population that is undergoing a stable cycle of two equilibrium points in population size whose individuals grow with varying acceleration that switches sign along the size range. The extension is very general and substantially widens the applicability of the theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Job stress and mortality in older age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata Tobiasz-Adamczyk

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This paper aims to assess the relationship between the determinants of the psychosocial work environment, as expressed in terms of JDC or ERI models, and all-cause mortality in older individuals. Materials and Methods: The baseline study was conducted on a cohort comprising a random sample of 65-year-old community-dwelling citizens of Kraków, Poland. All of the 727 participants (410 women, 317 men were interviewed in their households in the period between 2001 and 2003; a structured questionnaire was used regarding their occupational activity history, which included indexes measuring particular dimensions of their psychosocial work environment based on Karasek's Job Demand-Control model and Siegrist's Effort-Reward Imbalance model, as well as health-related quality of life and demographic data. Mortality was ascertained by monitoring City Vital Records for 7 years. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women, with the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Results: During a 7-year follow-up period, 59 participants (8.1% died, including 21 women (5.1% of total women and 38 men (12% (p < 0.05. Significant differences in the number of deaths occurred regarding disproportion between physical demands and control in men: those with low physical demands and low control died three times more often than those with high control, regardless of the level of demands. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that significantly higher risk of death was observed only in men with low physical demands and low control, compared to those with low physical demands and high control (Exp(B = 4.65, 95% CI: 1.64-13.2. Conclusions: Observed differences in mortality patterns are similar to the patterns of relationships observed in health-related quality of life (HRQoL level at the beginning of old age; however, the relationship between efforts and rewards or demands and control and mortality was not fully confirmed.

  7. The epidemiology and mortality of pretibial lacerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, K C; Gilleard, O; Weir, A; Cubison, T C S

    2015-05-01

    Pretibial lacerations are common injuries which have an underestimated mortality associated with their occurrence, and an under-appreciated morbidity associated with their treatment - they account for 5.2 out of every 1000 Emergency Department attendances in the United Kingdom, and occur mostly in the elderly. They are also increasingly being referred to plastic surgery units - the authors' department saw an increase from 58 referrals in twelve months in 2005/2006 to 113 referrals in six months in 2011. The Queen Victoria Hospital, East Grinstead, follows an evidence based and multi-disciplinary practice for the treatment of these injuries. The authors present the outcomes of patients referred to the hospital from the community and treated according to these guidelines, and compares the outcomes and mortality to a period prior to the introduction of this practise. The average time for skin grafted wounds to heal is found to be 59.8 days and for the donors it is 50.3 days, compared with an average time to healing of 123 days for those managed conservatively. The one month and one year mortality associated with these injuries is highlighted, as is the reduction in these figures following the adherence to the current treatment regime - prior to its introduction the 31 day mortality was 15%, and this was reduced to 4.3% by achievable changes in practice and treatment. Finally, the relevant extant research literature regarding pretibial lacerations is reviewed. Copyright © 2015 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Persistent insomnia is associated with mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathy, Sairam; Vasquez, Monica M; Halonen, Marilyn; Bootzin, Richard; Quan, Stuart F; Martinez, Fernando D; Guerra, Stefano

    2015-03-01

    Insomnia has been associated with mortality risk, but whether this association is different in subjects with persistent vs intermittent insomnia is unclear. Additionally, the role of systemic inflammation in such an association is unknown. We used data from a community-based cohort to determine whether persistent or intermittent insomnia, defined based on persistence of symptoms over a 6-year period, was associated with death during the following 20 years of follow-up. We also determined whether changes in serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels measured over 2 decades between study initiation and insomnia determination were different for the persistent, intermittent, and never insomnia groups. The results were adjusted for confounders such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol, and sedatives. Of the 1409 adult participants, 249 (18%) had intermittent and 128 (9%) had persistent insomnia. During a 20-year follow-up period, 318 participants died (118 due to cardiopulmonary disease). In adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models, participants with persistent insomnia (adjusted hazards ratio [HR] 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-2.45) but not intermittent insomnia (HR 1.22; 95% CI, 0.86-1.74) were more likely to die than participants without insomnia. Serum CRP levels were higher and increased at a steeper rate in subjects with persistent insomnia as compared with intermittent (P = .04) or never (P = .004) insomnia. Although CRP levels were themselves associated with increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.01-1.82; P = .04), adjustment for CRP levels did not notably change the association between persistent insomnia and mortality. In a population-based cohort, persistent, and not intermittent, insomnia was associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality and was associated with a steeper increase in inflammation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Sedentary behavior and residual-specific mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Paul D. Loprinzi; Meghan K. Edwards; Eveleen Sng; Ovuokerie Addoh

    2016-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of accelerometer-assessed sedentary behavior and residual-specific mortality. Methods: Data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used (N = 5536), with follow-up through 2011. Sedentary behavior was objectively measured over 7 days via accelerometry. Results: When expressing sedentary behavior as a 60 min/day increase, the hazard ratio across the models ranged from 1.07-1.40 (P < 0...

  10. Type 2 diabetes mortality at Mexican borders

    OpenAIRE

    Manzanares Rivera, José Luis

    2017-01-01

    Abstract:Objective: To analyze type II diabetes mortality rates geographic distribution and evolution in time across both Mexican border regions during the period 1998-2013.Methods: The work is based on exploratory and inferential data analysis conducted using death reports from the national health information system. The analysis considers social determinants of health as a theoretical paradigm and includes microdata on consumption patterns at household level for the US-Mexico and Mexico- Gu...

  11. Road traffic related mortality in Vietnam: Evidence for policy from a national sample mortality surveillance system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngo Anh D

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs are among the leading causes of mortality in Vietnam. However, mortality data collection systems in Vietnam in general and for RTIs in particular, remain inconsistent and incomplete. Underlying distributions of external causes and body injuries are not available from routine data collection systems or from studies till date. This paper presents characteristics, user type pattern, seasonal distribution, and causes of 1,061 deaths attributable to road crashes ascertained from a national sample mortality surveillance system in Vietnam over a two-year period (2008 and 2009. Methods A sample mortality surveillance system was designed for Vietnam, comprising 192 communes in 16 provinces, accounting for approximately 3% of the Vietnamese population. Deaths were identified from commune level data sources, and followed up by verbal autopsy (VA based ascertainment of cause of death. Age-standardised mortality rates from RTIs were computed. VA questionnaires were analysed in depth to derive descriptive characteristics of RTI deaths in the sample. Results The age-standardized mortality rates from RTIs were 33.5 and 8.5 per 100,000 for males and females respectively. Majority of deaths were males (79%. Seventy three percent of all deaths were aged from 15 to 49 years and 58% were motorcycle users. As high as 80% of deaths occurred on the day of injury, 42% occurred prior to arrival at hospital, and a further 29% occurred on-site. Direct causes of death were identified for 446 deaths (42% with head injuries being the most common cause attributable to road traffic injuries overall (79% and to motorcycle crashes in particular (78%. Conclusion The VA method can provide a useful data source to analyse RTI mortality. The observed considerable mortality from head injuries among motorcycle users highlights the need to evaluate current practice and effectiveness of motorcycle helmet use in Vietnam. The high number of

  12. Extrahepatic biliary obstruction; postoperative morbidity and mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, Z.; Khan, K.I.; Vaseem, M.; Rana, S.H.

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to evaluate the surgical management, both definitive and palliative, in selected patients with biliary obstruction and to find out the postoperative morbidity and mortality in these patients. Duration of the study is two years conducted from June 2002 to May 2004. The study was carried out at. the surgical. unit 4 of the Combined Military Hospital and surgical department of the Military Hospital. Thirty eight cases of biliary obstruction were included. A convenient sampling technique was followed. Data analyzed by using SPSS version 10.0 for windows on computer. Descriptive statistics like frequency, percentage, average etc were computed for data presentation. Any inferential test-was not found to be applicable for this descriptive type case series. We selected 38 patients with features of extrahepatic biliary obstruction. Out of these (n 38) 15 patients (39.5%) suffered from benign diseases while those having malignant diseases were 23 (60.5%). 19 (50%) patients died within two years of follow up while 19 (50%) were the survivors. Mortality was maximum for the malignant cases. In benign cases only one patient died. Maximum deaths 6 (31.6%) occurred in the period of up to one month of operation. 20 patients had one or another complication of operation and hence the morbidity came out to be 52%. According to our results the mortality and morbidity related to extrahepatic biliary obstruction in our patients was higher compared to other studies which can only be reduced by early detection and treatment. (author)

  13. Minimization of heatwave morbidity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchenko, Julia; Abernethy, Amy P; Fawzy, Maria; Lyerly, H Kim

    2013-03-01

    Global climate change is projected to increase the frequency and duration of periods of extremely high temperatures. Both the general populace and public health authorities often underestimate the impact of high temperatures on human health. To highlight the vulnerable populations and illustrate approaches to minimization of health impacts of extreme heat, the authors reviewed the studies of heat-related morbidity and mortality for high-risk populations in the U.S. and Europe from 1958 to 2012. Heat exposure not only can cause heat exhaustion and heat stroke but also can exacerbate a wide range of medical conditions. Vulnerable populations, such as older adults; children; outdoor laborers; some racial and ethnic subgroups (particularly those with low SES); people with chronic diseases; and those who are socially or geographically isolated, have increased morbidity and mortality during extreme heat. In addition to ambient temperature, heat-related health hazards are exacerbated by air pollution, high humidity, and lack of air-conditioning. Consequently, a comprehensive approach to minimize the health effects of extreme heat is required and must address educating the public of the risks and optimizing heatwave response plans, which include improving access to environmentally controlled public havens, adaptation of social services to address the challenges required during extreme heat, and consistent monitoring of morbidity and mortality during periods of extreme temperatures. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Urban poverty and infant mortality rate disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Mario; Sims, Tammy L; Bruce, Marino A

    2007-04-01

    This study examined whether the relationship between high poverty and infant mortality rates (IMRs) varied across race- and ethnic-specific populations in large urban areas. Data were drawn from 1990 Census and 1992-1994 Vital Statistics for selected U.S. metropolitan areas. High-poverty areas were defined as neighborhoods in which > or = 40% of the families had incomes below the federal poverty threshold. Bivariate models showed that high poverty was a significant predictor of IMR for each group; however, multivariate analyses demonstrate that maternal health and regional factors explained most of the variance in the group-specific models of IMR. Additional analysis revealed that high poverty was significantly associated with minority-white IMR disparities, and country of origin is an important consideration for ethnic birth outcomes. Findings from this study provide a glimpse into the complexity associated with infant mortality in metropolitan areas because they suggest that the factors associated with infant mortality in urban areas vary by race and ethnicity.

  15. Cardiovascular Mortality Caused by Exposure to Radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J. R.; Duport, P.

    2004-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are reported as the cause of morbidity and mortality in humans exposed to (high) therapeutic doses of radiation, A-bomb explosions, accidental (Chernobyl liquidators) and occupational level of radiation while CVD risk does not appear to be elevated in other populations exposed to radiation CVD mortality also appears to be elevated, proportionally with radon progeny exposure in Newfoundland fluorspar miners. In addition, radiation exposure does not seem to increase and may indeed decrease CVD mortality or morbidity in mammals exposed to radiation in the laboratory. We have calculated the doses to blood and coronary artery wall from radon and progeny, and have concluded radon exposure may indeed increase the incidence of cardiovascular diseases and that a thorough investigation of that risk is justified, even at environmental and occupational levels. These contradictory observations suggest that radiation may be considered as one of many risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. As such, it may be necessary to reduce not only other risk factors as far as possible, but also to minimize exposures to radiation to further reduce the burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population. (Author) 27 refs

  16. Job stress and mortality in older age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiasz-Adamczyk, Beata; Brzyski, Piotr; Florek, Marzena; Brzyska, Monika

    2013-06-01

    This paper aims to assess the relationship between the determinants of the psychosocial work environment, as expressed in terms of JDC or ERI models, and all-cause mortality in older individuals. The baseline study was conducted on a cohort comprising a random sample of 65-year-old community-dwelling citizens of Kraków, Poland. All of the 727 participants (410 women, 317 men) were interviewed in their households in the period between 2001 and 2003; a structured questionnaire was used regarding their occupational activity history, which included indexes measuring particular dimensions of their psychosocial work environment based on Karasek's Job Demand-Control model and Siegrist's Effort-Reward Imbalance model, as well as health-related quality of life and demographic data. Mortality was ascertained by monitoring City Vital Records for 7 years. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women, with the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. During a 7-year follow-up period, 59 participants (8.1%) died, including 21 women (5.1% of total women) and 38 men (12%) (p quality of life (HRQoL) level at the beginning of old age; however, the relationship between efforts and rewards or demands and control and mortality was not fully confirmed.

  17. Quantification of social contributions to earthquake mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I. G.; NicBhloscaidh, M.; McCloskey, J.; Pelling, M.; Naylor, M.

    2013-12-01

    Death tolls in earthquakes, which continue to grow rapidly, are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as strong shaking, and the resilience of exposed populations and supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. While it is clear that the social context in which the earthquake occurs has a strong effect on the outcome, the influence of this context can only be exposed if we first decouple, as much as we can, the physical causes of mortality from our consideration. (Our modelling assumes that building resilience to shaking is a social factor governed by national wealth, legislation and enforcement and governance leading to reduced levels of corruption.) Here we attempt to remove these causes by statistically modelling published mortality, shaking intensity and population exposure data; unexplained variance from this physical model illuminates the contribution of socio-economic factors to increasing earthquake mortality. We find that this variance partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures and allows the definition of a national vulnerability index identifying both anomalously resilient and anomalously vulnerable countries. In many cases resilience is well correlated with GDP; people in the richest countries are unsurprisingly safe from even the worst shaking. However some low-GDP countries rival even the richest in resilience, showing that relatively low cost interventions can have a positive impact on earthquake resilience and that social learning between these countries might facilitate resilience building in the absence of expensive engineering interventions.

  18. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO PERINATAL MORTALITY : OPTIMIZING OUTCOME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakshmi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the various causes of perinatal deaths and adopt strategies to improve perinatal outcome at a referral teaching hospital in North Kerala. METHODS: A prospective observational study conducted at Institute of Maternal and Child Health, Government Medical College, Kozhikode. All perinatal deaths during the period January 2013 to December 2014 were analysed and from this factors responsible for perinatal deaths were identified. RESULTS: Out of total 30,042 deliveries , there were 966 perinatal deaths during the study period. 566 were still births and 400 early neonatal deaths. The perinatal mortality rate was 31.1 per 1000 live births. Perinatal asphyxia was the major cause of perinatal mortality. The important factors contributing to perinatal asphyxia were prematurity (39%, abruptio placenta (19% and MSAF ( 12%. Among the antenatal factors, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy leading to iatrogenic elective preterm delivery were the most important. CONCLUSION: Perinatal asphyxia due to prematurity and low birth weight emerged as the most important cause of perinatal mortality in this study and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were the most important antenatal complication leading to prematurity

  19. Modelling diameter growth, mortality and recruitment of trees in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling diameter growth, mortality and recruitment of trees in miombo woodlands of Tanzania. ... Individual tree diameter growth and mortality models, and area-based recruitment models were developed. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  20. CDC WONDER: Compressed Mortality - Underlying Cause of Death

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The CDC WONDER Mortality - Underlying Cause of Death online database is a county-level national mortality and population database spanning the years since 1979...