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Sample records for risk-adjusted mortality analysis

  1. Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals

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    Rasmussen TB

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Bøjer Rasmussen, Sinna Pilgaard Ulrichsen, Mette Nørgaard Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark Background: Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes.Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses.Materials and methods: We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations.Results: Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals’ estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54. In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Conclusion: The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most

  2. Differences in case-mix can influence the comparison of standardised mortality ratios even with optimal risk adjustment: an analysis of data from paediatric intensive care.

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    Manktelow, Bradley N; Evans, T Alun; Draper, Elizabeth S

    2014-09-01

    The publication of clinical outcomes for consultant surgeons in 10 specialties within the NHS has, along with national clinical audits, highlighted the importance of measuring and reporting outcomes with the aim of monitoring quality of care. Such information is vital to be able to identify good and poor practice and to inform patient choice. The need to adequately adjust outcomes for differences in case-mix has long been recognised as being necessary to provide 'like-for-like' comparisons between providers. However, directly comparing values of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) between different healthcare providers can be misleading even when the risk-adjustment perfectly quantifies the risk of a poor outcome in the reference population. An example is shown from paediatric intensive care. Using observed case-mix differences for 33 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the UK and Ireland for 2009-2011, SMRs were calculated under four different scenarios where, in each scenario, all of the PICUs were performing identically for each patient type. Each scenario represented a clinically plausible difference in outcome from the reference population. Despite the fact that the outcome for any patient was the same no matter which PICU they were to be admitted to, differences between the units were seen when compared using the SMR: scenario 1, 1.07-1.21; scenario 2, 1.00-1.14; scenario 3, 1.04-1.13; scenario 4, 1.00-1.09. Even if two healthcare providers are performing equally for each type of patient, if their patient populations differ in case-mix their SMRs will not necessarily take the same value. Clinical teams and commissioners must always keep in mind this weakness of the SMR when making decisions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  3. Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

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    Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

    2006-02-01

    A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

  4. Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

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    Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

    2018-06-01

    Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

  5. Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

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    Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

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    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  7. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

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    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  8. What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

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    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

  9. Epidemiology, Management, and Risk-Adjusted Mortality of ICU-Acquired Enterococcal Bacteremia

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    Ong, David S Y; Bonten, Marc J M; Safdari, Khatera; Spitoni, Cristian; Frencken, Jos F; Witteveen, Esther; Horn, Janneke; Klein Klouwenberg, Peter M C; Cremer, Olaf L

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND:  Enterococcal bacteremia has been associated with high case fatality, but it remains unknown to what extent death is caused by these infections. We therefore quantified attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteremia caused by enterococci. METHODS:  From 2011 to

  10. Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

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    Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

    2005-09-15

    Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data.

  11. Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

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    Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

    2017-12-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Performance of risk-adjusted control charts to monitor in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients: A simulation study

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    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; de Jonge, Evert; Cook, David A.; Peek, Niels

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Increases in case-mix adjusted mortality may be indications of decreasing quality of care. Risk-adjusted control charts can be used for in-hospital mortality monitoring in intensive care units by issuing a warning signal when there are more deaths than expected. The aim of this study was

  13. Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

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    Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

    2015-02-24

    Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, pUSA 8.6%, pUSA 11.2%, pUSA 77%, pUSA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Risk-Adjusted Analysis of Relevant Outcome Drivers for Patients after More Than Two Kidney Transplants

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    Lampros Kousoulas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients suffering end-stage renal disease, but as the long-term renal allograft survival is limited, most transplant recipients will face graft loss and will be considered for a retransplantation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the patient and graft survival of the 61 renal transplant recipients after second or subsequent renal transplantation, transplanted in our institution between 1990 and 2010, and to identify risk factors related to inferior outcomes. Actuarial patient survival was 98.3%, 94.8%, and 88.2% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Actuarial graft survival was 86.8%, 80%, and 78.1% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Risk-adjusted analysis revealed that only age at the time of last transplantation had a significant influence on patient survival, whereas graft survival was influenced by multiple immunological and surgical factors, such as the number of HLA mismatches, the type of immunosuppression, the number of surgical complications, need of reoperation, primary graft nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, third and subsequent renal transplantation constitute a valid therapeutic option, but inferior outcomes should be expected among elderly patients, hyperimmunized recipients, and recipients with multiple operations at the site of last renal transplantation.

  15. Quality measurement in the shunt treatment of hydrocephalus: analysis and risk adjustment of the Revision Quotient.

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    Piatt, Joseph H; Freibott, Christina E

    2014-07-01

    OBJECT.: The Revision Quotient (RQ) has been defined as the ratio of the number of CSF shunt revisions to the number of new shunt insertions for a particular neurosurgical practice in a unit of time. The RQ has been proposed as a quality measure in the treatment of childhood hydrocephalus. The authors examined the construct validity of the RQ and explored the feasibility of risk stratification under this metric. The Kids' Inpatient Database for 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 was queried for admissions with diagnostic codes for hydrocephalus and procedural codes for CSF shunt insertion or revision. Revision quotients were calculated for hospitals that performed 12 or more shunt insertions annually. The univariate associations of hospital RQs with a variety of institutional descriptors were analyzed, and a generalized linear model of the RQ was constructed. There were 12,244 admissions (34%) during which new shunts were inserted, and there were 23,349 admissions (66%) for shunt revision. Three hundred thirty-four annual RQs were calculated for 152 different hospitals. Analysis of variance in hospital RQs over the 5 years of study data supports the construct validity of the metric. The following factors were incorporated into a generalized linear model that accounted for 41% of the variance of the measured RQs: degree of pediatric specialization, proportion of initial case mix in the infant age group, and proportion with neoplastic hydrocephalus. The RQ has construct validity. Risk adjustment is feasible, but the risk factors that were identified relate predominantly to patterns of patient flow through the health care system. Possible advantages of an alternative metric, the Surgical Activity Ratio, are discussed.

  16. Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

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    Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

    2016-09-06

    Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

  17. Infections and risk-adjusted length of stay and hospital mortality in Polish Neonatology Intensive Care Units

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    A. Różańska

    2015-06-01

    Conclusions: The general condition of VLBW infants statistically increase both their risk of mortality and LOS; this is in contrast to the presence of infection, which significantly prolonged LOS only.

  18. [Factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis: Development of a risk-adjusted model based on administrative data from German hospitals].

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    König, Volker; Kolzter, Olaf; Albuszies, Gerd; Thölen, Frank

    2018-05-01

    Inpatient administrative data from hospitals is already used nationally and internationally in many areas of internal and public quality assurance in healthcare. For sepsis as the principal condition, only a few published approaches are available for Germany. The aim of this investigation is to identify factors influencing hospital mortality by employing appropriate analytical methods in order to improve the internal quality management of sepsis. The analysis was based on data from 754,727 DRG cases of the CLINOTEL hospital network charged in 2015. The association then included 45 hospitals of all supply levels with the exception of university hospitals (range of beds: 100 to 1,172 per hospital). Cases of sepsis were identified via the ICD codes of their principal diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors influencing in-hospital lethality for this population. The model was developed using sociodemographic and other potential variables that could be derived from the DRG data set, and taking into account current literature data. The model obtained was validated with inpatient administrative data of 2016 (51 hospitals, 850,776 DRG cases). Following the definition of the inclusion criteria, 5,608 cases of sepsis (2016: 6,384 cases) were identified in 2015. A total of 12 significant and, over both years, stable factors were identified, including age, severity of sepsis, reason for hospital admission and various comorbidities. The AUC value of the model, as a measure of predictability, is above 0.8 (H-L test p>0.05, R 2 value=0.27), which is an excellent result. The CLINOTEL model of risk adjustment for in-hospital lethality can be used to determine the mortality probability of patients with sepsis as principal diagnosis with a very high degree of accuracy, taking into account the case mix. Further studies are needed to confirm whether the model presented here will prove its value in the internal quality assurance of hospitals

  19. Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

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    Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2010-08-20

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods

  20. Inclusion of Functional Status Measures in the Risk Adjustment of 30-Day Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT Registry.

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    Arnold, Suzanne V; O'Brien, Sean M; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Cohen, David J; Stebbins, Amanda; Brennan, J Matthew; Shahian, David M; Grover, Fred L; Holmes, David R; Thourani, Vinod H; Peterson, Eric D; Edwards, Fred H

    2018-03-26

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and

  1. Development and Validation of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Indicator for Mortality After Congenital Heart Surgery Harmonized With Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) Methodology.

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    Jenkins, Kathy J; Koch Kupiec, Jennifer; Owens, Pamela L; Romano, Patrick S; Geppert, Jeffrey J; Gauvreau, Kimberlee

    2016-05-20

    The National Quality Forum previously approved a quality indicator for mortality after congenital heart surgery developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Several parameters of the validated Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method were included, but others differed. As part of the National Quality Forum endorsement maintenance process, developers were asked to harmonize the 2 methodologies. Parameters that were identical between the 2 methods were retained. AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) 2008 were used to select optimal parameters where differences existed, with a goal to maximize model performance and face validity. Inclusion criteria were not changed and included all discharges for patients model includes procedure risk group, age (0-28 days, 29-90 days, 91-364 days, 1-17 years), low birth weight (500-2499 g), other congenital anomalies (Clinical Classifications Software 217, except for 758.xx), multiple procedures, and transfer-in status. Among 17 945 eligible cases in the SID 2008, the c statistic for model performance was 0.82. In the SID 2013 validation data set, the c statistic was 0.82. Risk-adjusted mortality rates by center ranged from 0.9% to 4.1% (5th-95th percentile). Congenital heart surgery programs can now obtain national benchmarking reports by applying AHRQ Quality Indicator software to hospital administrative data, based on the harmonized RACHS-1 method, with high discrimination and face validity. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  2. Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

    2006-08-01

    We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

  3. Using Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS)-based analysis in the development of regional risk adjustment tools to trend quality in a voluntary trauma system: the experience of the Trauma Foundation of Northeast Ohio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, C; Barnoski, A; Tinnell, C; Fallon, W

    2000-04-01

    Presently, no trauma system exists in Ohio. Since 1993, all hospitals in Cuyahoga County (CUY), northeast Ohio (n = 22) provide data to a trauma registry. In return, each received hospital-specific data, comparison data by trauma care level and a county-wide aggregate summary. This report describes the results of this approach in our region. All cases were entered by paper abstract or electronic download. Interrater reliability audits and z score analysis was performed by using the Major Trauma Outcome Study and the CUY 1994 baseline groups. Risk adjustment of mortality data was performed using statistical modeling and logistic regression (Trauma and Injury Severity Score, Major Trauma Outcome Study, CUY). Trauma severity measures were defined. In 1995, 3,375 patients were entered. Two hundred ninety-one died (8.6%). Severity measures differed by level of trauma care, indicating differences in case mix. Probability of survival was lowest in the Level I centers, highest in the acute care hospitals. Outcomes z scores demonstrated survival differences for all levels. In a functioning trauma system, the most severely injured patients should be cared for at the trauma centers. A low volume at acute care hospitals is desirable. By using Trauma and Injury Severity Score with community-specific constants, NE Ohio is accomplishing these goals. The Level I performance data are an interesting finding compared with the data from the Level II centers in the region

  4. Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

    2014-09-01

    To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  5. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  6. A review of statistical estimators for risk-adjusted length of stay: analysis of the Australian and new Zealand Intensive Care Adult Patient Data-Base, 2008-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

    2012-05-16

    For the analysis of length-of-stay (LOS) data, which is characteristically right-skewed, a number of statistical estimators have been proposed as alternatives to the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with log dependent variable. Using a cohort of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 2008-2009, 12 different methods were used for estimation of intensive care (ICU) length of stay. These encompassed risk-adjusted regression analysis of firstly: log LOS using OLS, linear mixed model [LMM], treatment effects, skew-normal and skew-t models; and secondly: unmodified (raw) LOS via OLS, generalised linear models [GLMs] with log-link and 4 different distributions [Poisson, gamma, negative binomial and inverse-Gaussian], extended estimating equations [EEE] and a finite mixture model including a gamma distribution. A fixed covariate list and ICU-site clustering with robust variance were utilised for model fitting with split-sample determination (80%) and validation (20%) data sets, and model simulation was undertaken to establish over-fitting (Copas test). Indices of model specification using Bayesian information criterion [BIC: lower values preferred] and residual analysis as well as predictive performance (R2, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), mean absolute error [MAE]) were established for each estimator. The data-set consisted of 111663 patients from 131 ICUs; with mean(SD) age 60.6(18.8) years, 43.0% were female, 40.7% were mechanically ventilated and ICU mortality was 7.8%. ICU length-of-stay was 3.4(5.1) (median 1.8, range (0.17-60)) days and demonstrated marked kurtosis and right skew (29.4 and 4.4 respectively). BIC showed considerable spread, from a maximum of 509801 (OLS-raw scale) to a minimum of 210286 (LMM). R2 ranged from 0.22 (LMM) to 0.17 and the CCC from 0.334 (LMM) to 0.149, with MAE 2.2-2.4. Superior residual behaviour was established for the log-scale estimators

  7. Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

    2003-07-01

    Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

  8. Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk adjustment of health-care performance measures in a multinational register-based study: A pragmatic approach to a complicated topic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tron Anders Moger

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health-care performance comparisons across countries are gaining popularity. In such comparisons, the risk adjustment methodology plays a key role for meaningful comparisons. However, comparisons may be complicated by the fact that not all participating countries are allowed to share their data across borders, meaning that only simple methods are easily used for the risk adjustment. In this study, we develop a pragmatic approach using patient-level register data from Finland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Methods: Data on acute myocardial infarction patients were gathered from health-care registers in several countries. In addition to unadjusted estimates, we studied the effects of adjusting for age, gender, and a number of comorbidities. The stability of estimates for 90-day mortality and length of stay of the first hospital episode following diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction is studied graphically, using different choices of reference data. Logistic regression models are used for mortality, and negative binomial models are used for length of stay. Results: Results from the sensitivity analysis show that the various models of risk adjustment give similar results for the countries, with some exceptions for Hungary and Italy. Based on the results, in Finland and Hungary, the 90-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction is higher than in Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Conclusion: Health-care registers give encouraging possibilities to performance measurement and enable the comparison of entire patient populations between countries. Risk adjustment methodology is affected by the availability of data, and thus, the building of risk adjustment methodology must be transparent, especially when doing multinational comparative research. In that case, even basic methods of risk adjustment may still be valuable.

  10. Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment Mortalidade neonatal: descrição e efeito do hospital de nascimento após ajuste de risco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aluísio J D Barros

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.OBJETIVO: Avaliar o efeito de hospital de nascimento na ocorrência de mortalidade neonatal. MÉTODOS: Uma coorte de nascimentos foi iniciada em Pelotas, em 2004. Todos os nascimentos hospitalares foram estudados em visitas diárias às maternidades da cidade, incluindo-se 4.558 recém-nascidos. As mães foram entrevistadas sobre fatores de risco em potencial e as mortes, monitoradas com visitas regulares aos

  11. Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

    2015-03-01

    A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

  12. [Susceptibility to strategy of the drug component of the IPHCC+RxGroups classification system in a risk-adjusted morbidity compensation scheme--a conceptional and data-supported analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrend, C; Felder, S; Busse, R

    2007-01-01

    A report commissioned by the German Ministry of Health recommends to the existing scheme for calculating risk-adjusted transfers to sickness funds supplement with the IPHCC+RxGroups method. The method is based on inpatient diagnoses and prescribed drugs as health status measures deduced from prior use. The present study investigates the sickness fund's expected net return from gaming based on the drug component of the risk adjuster. The study explores three possible strategies using the RxGroups method. For the stimulations, insurees are assigned to additional indications or to higher valued RxGroups within the same indication. Then, costs and financial benefits attributable to the altered drug use are estimated and compared with the status quo. The study uses 2000 and 2001 sample data of more than 370,000 insurees of Germany's company-based sickness funds system (BKK). While upgrading increases overall costs, it can be beneficial for the individual sickness funds. Their net return crucially depends on the number of sickness funds gaming the system: the more participating in the game, the smaller is the average net return. Moreover, not participating often is even worse, which in turn points to a prisoner's dilemma. When extending the risk adjustment scheme in social health insurance, the German legislator should take into account the perverse incentives of risk adjusters such as the described prescription drug model.

  13. Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

    2013-09-01

    BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

  14. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  15. Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

    2013-06-01

    Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. Urban, tertiary academic medical center. All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other

  16. 42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... that are used in the development and application of a risk adjustment payment model. (b) Data... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PROGRAM Payments to Medicare Advantage Organizations § 422... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may...

  17. Competition Leverage : How the Demand Side Affects Optimal Risk Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, M.; Boone, J.; Zwart, Gijsbert

    2011-01-01

    We study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First, we find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences

  18. Ants avoid superinfections by performing risk-adjusted sanitary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Matthias; Pull, Christopher D; Metzler, Sina; Seif, Katharina; Naderlinger, Elisabeth; Grasse, Anna V; Cremer, Sylvia

    2018-03-13

    Being cared for when sick is a benefit of sociality that can reduce disease and improve survival of group members. However, individuals providing care risk contracting infectious diseases themselves. If they contract a low pathogen dose, they may develop low-level infections that do not cause disease but still affect host immunity by either decreasing or increasing the host's vulnerability to subsequent infections. Caring for contagious individuals can thus significantly alter the future disease susceptibility of caregivers. Using ants and their fungal pathogens as a model system, we tested if the altered disease susceptibility of experienced caregivers, in turn, affects their expression of sanitary care behavior. We found that low-level infections contracted during sanitary care had protective or neutral effects on secondary exposure to the same (homologous) pathogen but consistently caused high mortality on superinfection with a different (heterologous) pathogen. In response to this risk, the ants selectively adjusted the expression of their sanitary care. Specifically, the ants performed less grooming and more antimicrobial disinfection when caring for nestmates contaminated with heterologous pathogens compared with homologous ones. By modulating the components of sanitary care in this way the ants acquired less infectious particles of the heterologous pathogens, resulting in reduced superinfection. The performance of risk-adjusted sanitary care reveals the remarkable capacity of ants to react to changes in their disease susceptibility, according to their own infection history and to flexibly adjust collective care to individual risk.

  19. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

    1994-01-01

    The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

  20. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  1. The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance.

    OpenAIRE

    Elton, Edwin J; Gruber, Martin J; Blake, Christopher R

    1996-01-01

    The authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns. They find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with ...

  2. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  3. Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

    2009-04-30

    The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

  4. A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2016-12-01

    To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  5. Risk-adjusted capitation: Recent experiences in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the

  6. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that

  7. Portfolio balancing and risk adjusted values under constrained budget conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    For a given hydrocarbon exploration opportunity, the influences of value, cost, success probability and corporate risk tolerance provide an optimal working interest that should be taken in the opportunity in order to maximize the risk adjusted value. When several opportunities are available, but when the total budget is insufficient to take optimal working interest in each, an analytic procedure is given for optimizing the risk adjusted value of the total portfolio; the relevant working interests are also derived based on a cost exposure constraint. Several numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit the use of the method under different budget conditions, and with different numbers of available opportunities. When value, cost, success probability, and risk tolerance are uncertain for each and every opportunity, the procedure is generalized to allow determination of probable optimal risk adjusted value for the total portfolio and, at the same time, the range of probable working interest that should be taken in each opportunity is also provided. The result is that the computations of portfolio balancing can be done quickly in either deterministic or probabilistic manners on a small calculator, thereby providing rapid assessments of opportunities and their worth to a corporation. (Author)

  8. Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

    2009-02-01

    Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

  9. Screening techniques, sustainability and risk adjusted returns. : - A quantitative study on the Swedish equity funds market

    OpenAIRE

    Ögren, Tobias; Forslund, Petter

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have primarily compared the performance of sustainable equity funds and non-sustainable equity funds. A meta-analysis over 85 different studies in the field concludes that there is no statistically significant difference in risk-adjusted returns when comparing sustainable funds and non-sustainable funds. This study is thus an extension on previous studies where the authors have chosen to test the two most common sustainability screening techniques to test if there is a differ...

  10. Factors affecting mortality in older trauma patients-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammy, Ian; Lecky, Fiona; Sutton, Anthea; Leaviss, Joanna; O'Cathain, Alicia

    2016-06-01

    Major trauma in older people is a significant health burden in the developed world. The aging of the population has resulted in larger numbers of older patients suffering serious injury. Older trauma patients are at greater risk of death from major trauma, but the reasons for this are less well understood. The aim of this review was to identify the factors affecting mortality in older patients suffering major injury. A systematic review of Medline, Cinhal and the Cochrane database, supplemented by a manual search of relevant papers was undertaken, with meta-analysis. Multi-centre cohort studies of existing trauma registries that reported risk-adjusted mortality (adjusted odds ratios, AOR) in their outcomes and which analysed patients aged 65 and older as a separate cohort were included in the review. 3609 papers were identified from the electronic databases, and 28 from manual searches. Of these, 15 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Demographic variables (age and gender), pre-existing conditions (comorbidities and medication), and injury-related factors (injury severity, pattern and mechanism) were found to affect mortality. The 'oldest old', aged 75 and older, had higher mortality rates than younger patients, aged 65-74 years. Older men had a significantly higher mortality rate than women (cumulative odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.37-1.66). Three papers reported a higher risk of death in patients with pre-existing conditions. Two studies reported increased mortality in patients on warfarin (cumulative odds ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.05-1.66). Higher mortality was seen in patients with lower Glasgow coma scores and systolic blood pressures. Mortality increased with increased injury severity and number of injuries sustained. Low level falls were associated with higher mortality than motor vehicle collisions (cumulative odds ratio 2.88, 95% CI 1.26-6.60). Multiple factors contribute to mortality risk in older trauma patients. The relation between these factors and

  11. A Genetic Analysis of Mortality in Pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    to investigate whether there is support for genetic variation for mortality and to study the quality of fit and predictive properties of the various models. In both breeds, the model that provided the best fit to the data was the standard binomial hierarchical model. The model that performed best in terms......An analysis of mortality is undertaken in two breeds of pigs: Danish Landrace and Yorkshire. Zero-inflated and standard versions of hierarchical Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial Bayesian models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The objectives of the study were...... of the ability to predict the distribution of stillbirths was the hierarchical zero-inflated negative binomial model. The best fit of the binomial hierarchical model and of the zero-inflated hierarchical negative binomial model was obtained when genetic variation was included as a parameter. For the hierarchical...

  12. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  13. Diagnostic Risk Adjustment for Medicaid: The Disability Payment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronick, Richard; Dreyfus, Tony; Lee, Lora; Zhou, Zhiyuan

    1996-01-01

    This article describes a system of diagnostic categories that Medicaid programs can use for adjusting capitation payments to health plans that enroll people with disability. Medicaid claims from Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New York, and Ohio are analyzed to demonstrate that the greater predictability of costs among people with disabilities makes risk adjustment more feasible than for a general population and more critical to creating health systems for people with disability. The application of our diagnostic categories to State claims data is described, including estimated effects on subsequent-year costs of various diagnoses. The challenges of implementing adjustment by diagnosis are explored. PMID:10172665

  14. Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

    1996-01-01

    Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

  15. Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

    2014-05-01

    Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

  16. Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

    2006-12-01

    To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, prisk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

  17. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  18. Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

    2012-08-01

    Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

  19. Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

    2012-05-01

    The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

  20. Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-06

    Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

  1. Impact on mortality of prompt admission to critical care for deteriorating ward patients: an instrumental variable analysis using critical care bed strain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Steve; Singer, Mervyn; Sanderson, Colin; Grieve, Richard; Harrison, David; Rowan, Kathryn

    2018-05-07

    To estimate the effect of prompt admission to critical care on mortality for deteriorating ward patients. We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive ward patients assessed for critical care. Prompt admissions (within 4 h of assessment) were compared to a 'watchful waiting' cohort. We used critical care strain (bed occupancy) as a natural randomisation event that would predict prompt transfer to critical care. Strain was classified as low, medium or high (2+, 1 or 0 empty beds). This instrumental variable (IV) analysis was repeated for the subgroup of referrals with a recommendation for critical care once assessed. Risk-adjusted 90-day survival models were also constructed. A total of 12,380 patients from 48 hospitals were available for analysis. There were 2411 (19%) prompt admissions (median delay 1 h, IQR 1-2) and 9969 (81%) controls; 1990 (20%) controls were admitted later (median delay 11 h, IQR 6-26). Prompt admissions were less frequent (p care. In the risk-adjust survival model, 90-day mortality was similar. After allowing for unobserved prognostic differences between the groups, we find that prompt admission to critical care leads to lower 90-day mortality for patients assessed and recommended to critical care.

  2. Mortality in Danish women: age, period and cohort analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune

    smokers throughout their adult life, suggesting that these smoking habits may be an important factor for their increased mortality. Study aim 3 The analysis of causes of death suggested an increased risk for deaths associated with the respiratory system and from causes traditionally associated....... Conclusion This study has shown that examination of total mortality trends in relation to age, period and cohort is a powerful exploratory tool for understanding changes in mortality and thus life expectancy. The analysis of differences in mortality trends among women in Denmark, Norway and Sweden...

  3. Mortality risk factor analysis in colonic perforation: would retroperitoneal contamination increase mortality in colonic perforation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Ri Na; Kye, Bong-Hyeon; Kim, Gun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Cho, Hyeon-Min

    2017-10-01

    Colonic perforation is a lethal condition presenting high morbidity and mortality in spite of urgent surgical treatment. This study investigated the surgical outcome of patients with colonic perforation associated with retroperitoneal contamination. Retrospective analysis was performed for 30 patients diagnosed with colonic perforation caused by either inflammation or ischemia who underwent urgent surgical treatment in our facility from January 2005 to December 2014. Patient characteristics were analyzed to find risk factors correlated with increased postoperative mortality. Using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) audit system, the mortality and morbidity rates were estimated to verify the surgical outcomes. Patients with retroperitoneal contamination, defined by the presence of retroperitoneal air in the preoperative abdominopelvic CT, were compared to those without retroperitoneal contamination. Eight out of 30 patients (26.7%) with colonic perforation had died after urgent surgical treatment. Factors associated with mortality included age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and the ischemic cause of colonic perforation. Three out of 6 patients (50%) who presented retroperitoneal contamination were deceased. Although the patients with retroperitoneal contamination did not show significant increase in the mortality rate, they showed significantly higher ASA physical status classification than those without retroperitoneal contamination. The mortality rate predicted from Portsmouth POSSUM was higher in the patients with retroperitoneal contamination. Patients presenting colonic perforation along with retroperitoneal contamination demonstrated severe comorbidity. However, retroperitoneal contamination was not found to be correlated with the mortality rate.

  4. Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

    2016-01-01

    Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  6. An analysis of anemia and child mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brabin, B. J.; Premji, Z.; Verhoeff, F.

    2001-01-01

    The relationship of anemia as a risk factor for child mortality was analyzed by using cross-sectional, longitudinal and case-control studies, and randomized trials. Five methods of estimation were adopted: 1) the proportion of child deaths attributable to anemia; 2) the proportion of anemic children

  7. An analysis of anemia and pregnancy-related maternal mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brabin, B. J.; Hakimi, M.; Pelletier, D.

    2001-01-01

    The relationship of anemia as a risk factor for maternal mortality was analyzed by using cross-sectional, longitudinal and case-control studies because randomized trials were not available for analysis. The following six methods of estimation of mortality risk were adopted: 1) the correlation of

  8. Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

    2011-01-01

    Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

  9. Child malnutrition and mortality in Swaziland: Situation analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Child malnutrition and mortality in Swaziland: Situation analysis of the immediate, ... African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development ... care of children and women, insufficient health services and unhealthy environment), and ...

  10. System for the analysis of cohort mortality data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLain, R.; Frome, E.L.

    1986-01-01

    A system is developed for the analysis of cohort mortality data. This Mortality Analysis System (MAS) is designed as a research tool in epidemiologic studies. The system allows a researcher to investigate the effect of one or more factors on the mortality of a study cohort. Variables can be categorized as factors to allow for stratification in the analysis. DATA steps and PROC MATRIX are incorporated in the system to produce the output. Person-years, observed deaths, and expected deaths are calculated and cross-classified by the levels of the factors. The resulting data set can be used to compute the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for each stratum level. Poisson regression models can then be used for further statistical analysis

  11. Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

  12. PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

  13. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

  14. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall P. Ellis

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems.

  15. Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, M A; El Sayed, A M; Sugathan, T N; Khogali, M M; Verma, D

    1992-01-01

    "A variety of life table models were used for the analysis of the (1984-86) Kuwaiti cause-specific mortality data. These models comprised total mortality, multiple-decrement, cause-elimination, cause-delay and disease dependency. The models were illustrated by application to a set of four chronic diseases: hypertensive, ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular and diabetes mellitus. The life table methods quantify the relative weights of different diseases as hazards to mortality after adjustment for other causes. They can also evaluate the extent of dependency between underlying cause of death and other causes mentioned on [the] death certificate using an extended underlying-cause model." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA) excerpt

  16. The risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors: A South African case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkhethwa Mkhize

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to examine the effects of female directors on the risk-adjusted performance of firms listed on the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (the JSE. The theoretical underpinning for the relationship between representation of female directors and the risk-adjusted performance of companies was based on institutional theory. The hypothesis that there is no difference between the risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors and that of companies without female directors was rejected. Implications of the results are discussed and suggestions for future research presented.

  17. Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

  18. Coherent Forecasts of Mortality with Compositional Data Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Oeppen, Jim

    2017-01-01

    Data Analysis (CoDa) of the life table distribution of deaths. We adapt existing coherent and non–coherent forecasting models to CoDa and compare their results. Results We apply our coherent method to the female mortality of 15 Western European countries and show that our proposed strategy would have...

  19. a comparative analysis of first day neonatal mortality between

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    East African Medical Journal Vol. 90 No. 11 November 2013. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FIRST DAY NEONATAL MORTALITY BETWEEN ADOLESCENTS AND ADULT. FEMALES GIVING BIRTH AT LIGULA HOSPITAL IN MTWARA, SOUTH EASTERN TANZANIA 2008 – 2009. A. Ramaiya, MSc, Ifakara Health ...

  20. [Analysis of hospital mortality at a regional hospital].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Bisonó, J R; Gómez Rosich, A; Amor Gea, J F; García Sánchez, M J; Campoy Domene, L F; Peña Migallón-Sánchez, P

    1997-02-01

    The hospital mortality rate in our centre es 2.34% (264 deaths from a total of 11,336 discharges between 1991 and 1993). The most frequent causes are acute myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular accidents, followed in descending order by pneumonia, chronic bronchitis, congestive heart failure, upper GI haemorrhage, GI tumours, liver cirrhosis, lung tumours and arrhythmias. Our analysis reflects a mortality pattern of a rural population with an age pyramid in which 52% of the patients are older than 45 years. The pattern also reflects the little impact of accidents on our mortality. A 87% of the deaths were older than 65 years with a male to female ratio of 1, 6 and a Swaroop index of 93% and 94% for males and females respectively.

  1. The Experience of Risk-Adjusted Capitation Payment for Family Physicians in Iran: A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Reza; Hadian, Mohammad; Rashidian, Arash; Shariati, Mohammad; Ghaderi, Hossien

    2016-04-01

    When a country's health system is faced with fundamental flaws that require the redesign of financing and service delivery, primary healthcare payment systems are often reformed. This study was conducted with the purpose of exploring the experiences of risk-adjusted capitation payment of urban family physicians in Iran when it comes to providing primary health care (PHC). This is a qualitative study using the framework method. Data were collected via digitally audio-recorded semi-structured interviews with 24 family physicians and 5 executive directors in two provinces of Iran running the urban family physician pilot program. The participants were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. The codes were extracted using inductive and deductive methods. Regarding the effects of risk-adjusted capitation on the primary healthcare setting, five themes with 11 subthemes emerged, including service delivery, institutional structure, financing, people's behavior, and the challenges ahead. Our findings indicated that the health system is enjoying some major changes in the primary healthcare setting through the implementation of risk-adjusted capitation payment. With regard to the current challenges in Iran's health system, using risk-adjusted capitation as a primary healthcare payment system can lead to useful changes in the health system's features. However, future research should focus on the development of the risk-adjusted capitation model.

  2. Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

    2000-02-01

    In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

  3. Mortality in former Olympic athletes: retrospective cohort analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwiers, R; Zantvoord, F W A; van Bodegom, D; van der Ouderaa, F J G; Westendorp, R G J

    2012-01-01

    Objective To assess the mortality risk in subsequent years (adjusted for year of birth, nationality, and sex) of former Olympic athletes from disciplines with different levels of exercise intensity. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Former Olympic athletes. Participants 9889 athletes (with a known age at death) who participated in the Olympic Games between 1896 and 1936, representing 43 types of disciplines with different levels of cardiovascular, static, and dynamic intensity exercise; high or low risk of bodily collision; and different levels of physical contact. Main outcome measure All cause mortality. Results Hazard ratios for mortality among athletes from disciplines with moderate cardiovascular intensity (1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.07) or high cardiovascular intensity (0.98, 0.92 to 1.04) were similar to those in athletes from disciplines with low cardiovascular intensity. The underlying static and dynamic components in exercise intensity showed similar non-significant results. Increased mortality was seen among athletes from disciplines with a high risk of bodily collision (hazard ratio 1.11, 1.06 to 1.15) and with high levels of physical contact (1.16, 1.11 to 1.22). In a multivariate analysis, the effect of high cardiovascular intensity remained similar (hazard ratio 1.05, 0.89 to 1.25); the increased mortality associated with high physical contact persisted (hazard ratio 1.13, 1.06 to 1.21), but that for bodily collision became non-significant (1.03, 0.98 to 1.09) as a consequence of its close relation with physical contact. Conclusions Among former Olympic athletes, engagement in disciplines with high intensity exercise did not bring a survival benefit compared with disciplines with low intensity exercise. Those who engaged in disciplines with high levels of physical contact had higher mortality than other Olympians later in life. PMID:23241269

  4. Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamers, L M

    Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

  5. Maternal obesity and infant mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehan, Sean; Beck, Charles R; Mair-Jenkins, John; Leonardi-Bee, Jo; Puleston, Richard

    2014-05-01

    Despite numerous studies reporting an elevated risk of infant mortality among women who are obese, the magnitude of the association is unclear. A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to assess the association between maternal overweight or obesity and infant mortality. Four health care databases and gray literature sources were searched and screened against the protocol eligibility criteria. Observational studies reporting on the relationship between maternal overweight and obesity and infant mortality were included. Data extraction and risk of bias assessments were performed. Twenty-four records were included from 783 screened. Obese mothers (BMI ≥30) had greater odds of having an infant death (odds ratio 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-1.63; P obese (BMI >35) (odds ratio 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.61-2.56; P obese mothers and that this risk may increase with greater maternal BMI or weight; however, residual confounding may explain these findings. Given the rising prevalence of maternal obesity, additional high-quality epidemiologic studies to elucidate the actual influence of elevated maternal mass or weight on infant mortality are needed. If a causal link is determined and the biological basis explained, public health strategies to address the issue of maternal obesity will be needed. Copyright © 2014 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  6. National estimates for maternal mortality: an analysis based on the WHO systematic review of maternal mortality and morbidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülmezoglu A Metin

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the worldwide commitment to improving maternal health, measuring, monitoring and comparing maternal mortality estimates remain a challenge. Due to lack of data, international agencies have to rely on mathematical models to assess its global burden. In order to assist in mapping the burden of reproductive ill-health, we conducted a systematic review of incidence/prevalence of maternal mortality and morbidity. Methods We followed the standard methodology for systematic reviews. This manuscript presents nationally representative estimates of maternal mortality derived from the systematic review. Using regression models, relationships between study-specific and country-specific variables with the maternal mortality estimates are explored in order to assist further modelling to predict maternal mortality. Results Maternal mortality estimates included 141 countries and represent 78.1% of the live births worldwide. As expected, large variability between countries, and within regions and subregions, is identified. Analysis of variability according to study characteristics did not yield useful results given the high correlation with each other, with development status and region. A regression model including selected country-specific variables was able to explain 90% of the variability of the maternal mortality estimates. Among all country-specific variables selected for the analysis, three had the strongest relationships with maternal mortality: proportion of deliveries assisted by a skilled birth attendant, infant mortality rate and health expenditure per capita. Conclusion With the exception of developed countries, variability of national maternal mortality estimates is large even within subregions. It seems more appropriate to study such variation through differentials in other national and subnational characteristics. Other than region, study of country-specific variables suggests infant mortality rate, skilled birth

  7. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  8. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  9. Prior use of durable medical equipment as a risk adjuster for health-based capitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.C. van Kleef (Richard); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines a new risk adjuster for capitation payments to Dutch health plans, based on the prior use of durable medical equipment (DME). The essence is to classify users of DME in a previous year into clinically homogeneous classes and to apply the resulting classification as a

  10. A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

    2018-01-01

    Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk-adjusted survival after tissue versus mechanical aortic valve replacement: a 23-year assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaca, Jeffrey G; Clare, Robert M; Rankin, J Scott; Daneshmand, Mani A; Milano, Carmelo A; Hughes, G Chad; Wolfe, Walter G; Glower, Donald D; Smith, Peter K

    2013-11-01

    Detailed analyses of risk-adjusted outcomes after mitral valve surgery have documented significant survival decrements with tissue valves at any age. Several recent studies of prosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) also have suggested a poorer performance of tissue valves, although analyses have been limited to small matched series. The study aim was to test the hypothesis that AVR with tissue valves is associated with a lower risk-adjusted survival, as compared to mechanical valves. Between 1986 and 2009, primary isolated AVR, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), was performed with currently available valve types in 2148 patients (1108 tissue valves, 1040 mechanical). Patients were selected for tissue valves to be used primarily in the elderly. Baseline and operative characteristics were documented prospectively with a consistent variable set over the entire 23-year period. Follow up was obtained with mailed questionnaires, supplemented by National Death Index searches. The average time to death or follow up was seven years, and follow up for survival was 96.2% complete. Risk-adjusted survival characteristics for the two groups were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection of candidate variables. Differences in baseline characteristics between groups were (tissue versus mechanical): median age 73 versus 61 years; non-elective surgery 32% versus 28%; CABG 45% versus 35%; median ejection fraction 55% versus 55%; renal failure 6% versus 1%; diabetes 18% versus 7% (pvalves; however, after risk adjustment for the adverse profiles of tissue valve patients, no significant difference was observed in survival after tissue or mechanical AVR. Thus, the hypothesis did not hold, and risk-adjusted survival was equivalent, of course qualified by the fact that selection bias was evident. With selection criteria that employed tissue AVR more frequently in elderly patients, tissue and mechanical valves achieved similar survival

  12. [Risk adjusted assessment of quality of perinatal centers - results of perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance in Saxonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, R; Gmyrek, D; Vogtmann, Ch

    2005-12-01

    The weak point of the country-wide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance as a tool for evaluation of achievements of a distinct clinic, is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case-mix of patients. Therefore, that approach can not result in a reliable bench marking. To adjust the results of quality assessment of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal data base of 12.783 newborns of the saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2000 was analyzed. 4 relevant quality indicators of newborn outcome -- a) severe intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants 2500 g and d) hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy -- were targeted to find out specific risk predictors by considering 26 risk factors. A logistic regression model was used to develop the risk predictors. Risk predictors for the 4 quality indicators could be described by 3 - 9 out of 26 analyzed risk factors. The AUC (ROC)-values for these quality indicators were 82, 89, 89 and 89 %, what signifies their reliability. Using the new specific predictors for calculation the risk adjusted incidence rates of quality indicator yielded in some remarkable changes. The apparent differences in the outcome criteria of analyzed hospitals were found to be much less pronounced. The application of the proposed method for risk adjustment of quality indicators makes it possible to perform a more objective comparison of neonatal outcome criteria between different hospitals or regions.

  13. Case-mix and the use of control charts in monitoring mortality rates after coronary artery bypass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is debate about the role of crude mortality rates and case-mix adjusted mortality rates in monitoring the outcomes of treatment. In the context of quality improvement a key purpose of monitoring is to identify special cause variation as this type of variation should be investigated to identify possible causes. This paper investigates agreement between the identification of special cause variation in risk adjusted and observed hospital specific mortality rates after coronary artery bypass grafting in New York hospitals. Methods Coronary artery bypass grafting mortality rates between 1994 and 2003 were obtained from the New York State Department of Health's cardiovascular reports for 41 hospitals. Cross-sectional control charts of crude (observed and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each year. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond the 99.9% probability limits: hospitals showing special cause variation were identified for each year. Longitudinal control charts of crude (observed and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each hospital with data for all ten years (n = 27. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond 99.9% probability limits, two out of three consecutive data points beyond 95% probability limits (two standard deviations from the mean or a run of five consecutive points on one side of the mean. Years showing special cause variation in mortality were identified for each hospital. Cohen's Kappa was calculated for agreement between special causes identified in crude and risk-adjusted control charts. Results In cross sectional analysis the Cohen's Kappa was 0.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.28 to 0.78, indicating moderate agreement between the crude and risk-adjusted control charts with sensitivity 0.4 (95% confidence interval 0.17–0.69 and specificity 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–0.99. In longitudinal analysis, the Cohen's Kappa was 0.61 (95

  14. Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

    2007-12-01

    Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

  15. Mortality analysis in the French cohort of uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vacquier, B.

    2008-10-01

    The objective of this thesis is to contribute to the estimation of radiation-induced risks at low dose rates. This work is based on the cohort of uranium miners French presenting multiple exposures, contamination by internal (radon and uranium dust) and external exposure (gamma radiation). An analysis of the risk of death and the relationship risk exposure was carried out within the cohort of uranium miners after extension of the monitoring until 1999, for cancers diseases and non-cancers. In addition, an analysis taking into account multiple exposures to ionizing radiation was carried out within the framework of this thesis. This analysis has improved knowledge on the risk of mortality associated with low levels of exposure to radon. (author)

  16. Does risk-adjusted payment influence primary care providers’ decision on where to set up practices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta; Dietrichson, Jens

    2018-01-01

    Background: Providing equal access to healthcare is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where private providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access...... to care, 15 out 21 county councils in Sweden have implemented risk-adjusted capitation based on the Care Need Index, which increases capitation to primary care centers with a large share of patients with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Our aim is to estimate the effects of using...... Index values. Results: Risk-adjusted capitation significantly increases the number of private primary care centers in areas with relatively high Care Need Index values. The adjustment results in a changed distribution of private centers within county councils; the total number of private centers does...

  17. Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, K; Walsh, M

    2000-01-01

    This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

  18. The Impact of Capital Structure on Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Porteous, Bruce; Tapadar, Pradip

    2008-01-01

    The impact that capital structure and capital asset allocation have on financial services firm economic capital and risk adjusted performance is considered. A stochastic modelling approach is used in conjunction with banking and insurance examples. It is demonstrated that gearing up Tier 1 capital with Tier 2 capital can be in the interests of bank Tier 1 capital providers, but may not always be so for insurance Tier 1 capital providers. It is also shown that, by allocating a bank or insuranc...

  19. Does Risk-Adjusted Payment Influence Primary Care Providers' Decision on Where to Set Up Practices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietrichson, Jens; Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta

    Providing equal access to health care is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access to care, 15 out 21 county...... of private primary care centers in areas with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. More generally, this result indicates that risk-adjusted capitation can significantly affect private providers’ establishment decisions....

  20. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Improved implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor surgical outcome quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, Matthew J; Loda, Justin B; Elhabashy, Ahmad E; Woodall, William H

    2017-06-01

    The traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart for monitoring surgical outcome quality requires waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery before incorporating patient outcome information. We propose a simple but powerful implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart that incorporates outcome information as soon as it is available, rather than waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery. A simulation study is presented that compares the performance of the traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to our improved implementation. We show that incorporating patient outcome information as soon as it is available leads to quicker detection of process deterioration. Deterioration of surgical performance could be detected much sooner using our proposed implementation, which could lead to the earlier identification of problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. [The analysis of general mortality by age and sex: evidence of two types of mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiani, P; Masse, H; Aubenque, M

    1984-01-01

    The departmental distributions of the probabilities of dying by age group and sex are analyzed for France in 1975. It is found that these distributions are the sum of two lognormal distributions. The authors deduce the existence of two populations that are distinguished by whether mortality was endogenous or exogenous. The relative importance of these two types of mortality is considered according to age. (summary in ENG)

  3. Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

    2015-06-01

    Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

  4. A risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost of a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Tentzeris, Vasileios; Sandri, Alberto; McKenna, Alexandra; Liew, Shan Liung; Milton, Richard; Chaudhuri, Nilanjan; Kefaloyannis, Emmanuel; Papagiannopoulos, Kostas

    2016-05-01

    To develop a clinically risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost associated with a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy programme. Prospectively collected data of 236 VATS lobectomy patients (August 2012-December 2013) were analysed retrospectively. Fixed and variable intraoperative and postoperative costs were retrieved from the Hospital Accounting Department. Baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with total cost using a multivariable linear regression and bootstrap analyses. Costs were calculated in GBP and expressed in Euros (EUR:GBP exchange rate 1.4). The average total cost of a VATS lobectomy was €11 368 (range €6992-€62 535). Average intraoperative (including surgical and anaesthetic time, overhead, disposable materials) and postoperative costs [including ward stay, high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and variable costs associated with management of complications] were €8226 (range €5656-€13 296) and €3029 (range €529-€51 970), respectively. The following variables remained reliably associated with total costs after linear regression analysis and bootstrap: carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) 0.05) in 86% of the samples. A hypothetical patient with COPD and DLCO less than 60% would cost €4270 more than a patient without COPD and with higher DLCO values (€14 793 vs €10 523). Risk-adjusting financial data can help estimate the total cost associated with VATS lobectomy based on clinical factors. This model can be used to audit the internal financial performance of a VATS lobectomy programme for budgeting, planning and for appropriate bundled payment reimbursements. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  5. A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

    2018-04-17

    The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Risk selection and risk adjustment: improving insurance in the individual and small group markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baicker, Katherine; Dow, William H

    2009-01-01

    Insurance market reforms face the key challenge of addressing the threat that risk selection poses to the availability, of stable, high-value insurance policies that provide long-term risk protection. Many of the strategies in use today fail to address this breakdown in risk pooling, and some even exacerbate it. Flexible risk adjustment schemes are a promising avenue for promoting market stability and limiting insurer cream-skimming, potentially providing greater benefits at lower cost. Reforms intended to increase insurance coverage and the value of care delivered will be much more effective if implemented in conjunction with policies that address these fundamental selection issues.

  7. Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

    2018-02-21

    The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p reimbursement (p reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied significantly by state (p ≤ 0.01). Risk adjustment incorporating specific comorbidities demonstrated better performance than with use of DRG alone (r = 0.22 versus 0.15). Our results suggest that the proposed SHFFT bundled payment model should use more robust risk-adjustment methods to ensure that providers are reimbursed fairly and that

  8. Medieval monastic mortality: hazard analysis of mortality differences between monastic and nonmonastic cemeteries in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N; Boulware, Jessica C; Redfern, Rebecca C

    2013-11-01

    Scholarship on life in medieval European monasteries has revealed a variety of factors that potentially affected mortality in these communities. Though there is some evidence based on age-at-death distributions from England that monastic males lived longer than members of the general public, what is missing from the literature is an explicit examination of how the risks of mortality within medieval monastic settings differed from those within contemporaneous lay populations. This study examines differences in the hazard of mortality for adult males between monastic cemeteries (n = 528) and non-monastic cemeteries (n = 368) from London, all of which date to between AD 1050 and 1540. Age-at-death data from all cemeteries are pooled to estimate the Gompertz hazard of mortality, and "monastic" (i.e., buried in a monastic cemetery) is modeled as a covariate affecting this baseline hazard. The estimated effect of the monastic covariate is negative, suggesting that individuals in the monastic communities faced reduced risks of dying compared to their peers in the lay communities. These results suggest better diets, the positive health benefits of religious behavior, better living conditions in general in monasteries, or selective recruitment of healthy or higher socioeconomic status individuals. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Child Mortality in a Developing Country: A Statistical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, Md. Jamal; Hossain, Md. Zakir; Ullah, Mohammad Ohid

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the "Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS] 1999-2000" to investigate the predictors of child (age 1-4 years) mortality in a developing country like Bangladesh. The cross-tabulation and multiple logistic regression techniques have been used to estimate the predictors of child mortality. The…

  10. Statistical analysis of child mortality and its determinants | Taiwo | Ife ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... residence, birth order and zone. The second factor which seemed to index previous birth had high loadings on child sex, birth sex, birth size (weight of the baby at birth in kilogram)and as well as mother's age. Keywords: Child mortality, Socio-economic and demographic determinants, Mortality rate, Varimax rotation and ...

  11. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  12. Usefulness of administrative databases for risk adjustment of adverse events in surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Rincón, Isabel; Martin-Vizcaíno, Marta P; Tirapu-León, Belén; Zabalza-López, Pedro; Abad-Vicente, Francisco J; Merino-Peralta, Asunción; Oteiza-Martínez, Fabiola

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of clinical-administrative databases for the development of risk adjustment in the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. The study was conducted at the Hospital of Navarra, a tertiary teaching hospital in northern Spain. We studied 1602 hospitalizations of surgical patients from 2008 to 2010. We analysed 40 comorbidity variables included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement (NSQIP) Program of the American College of Surgeons using 2 sources of information: The clinical and administrative database (CADB) and the data extracted from the complete clinical records (CR), which was considered the gold standard. Variables were catalogued according to compliance with the established criteria: sensitivity, positive predictive value and kappa coefficient >0.6. The average number of comorbidities per study participant was 1.6 using the CR and 0.95 based on CADB (p<.0001). Thirteen types of comorbidities (accounting for 8% of the comorbidities detected in the CR) were not identified when the CADB was the source of information. Five of the 27 remaining comorbidities complied with the 3 established criteria; 2 pathologies fulfilled 2 criteria, whereas 11 fulfilled 1, and 9 did not fulfil any criterion. CADB detected prevalent comorbidities such as comorbid hypertension and diabetes. However, the CABD did not provide enough information to assess the variables needed to perform the risk adjustment proposed by the NSQIP for the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  13. Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Ajay; Donohue, Fionnuala; Johnson, Howard; Cunney, Robert

    2016-01-01

    As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed. PMID:27541730

  14. A Retrospective Analysis of Mortality Distribution in Juba Teaching ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ann Burgess

    An abbreviated version of this paper was presented at the 2008. Government of Southern ... deaths to give reliable minimum mortality rates. In addition we categorised .... example, there is very limited access to oxygen therapy. Simple items ...

  15. [Epidemiological analysis on mortality of cancer in China, 2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, L; Zhao, F; Cai, Y; Wu, R X; Meng, Q

    2018-01-10

    Objective: To understand the distribution of cancer deaths in China in 2015 and provide reference for the prevention and control of cancer. Methods: Based on the results of Global Burden of Disease 2015, the cancer death distributions in different age groups, sex groups, provinces or by different malignant tumor in Chinese were described. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of cancer was 159.01/100 000 in China in 2015. The mortality rate was highest in age group ≥70 years (1 102.73/100 000), and lowest in age group 5-14 years (5.40/100 000). The mortality rate in males was 2.15 times higher than that in females. The first 5 provinces with high cancer mortality rate were Anhui, Qinghai, Sichuan, Guangxi and Henan. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer and colorectal cancer ranked 1-5 in term of mortality rate. Conclusion: The cancer mortality differed with age, gender, area and different malignant tumors, suggesting the necessity to develop targeted prevention and control strategies.

  16. Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Breeds of risk-adjusted fundamentalist strategies in an order-driven market

    Science.gov (United States)

    LiCalzi, Marco; Pellizzari, Paolo

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies an order-driven stock market where agents have heterogeneous estimates of the fundamental value of the risky asset. The agents are budget-constrained and follow a value-based trading strategy which buys or sells depending on whether the price of the asset is below or above its risk-adjusted fundamental value. This environment generates returns that are remarkably leptokurtic and fat-tailed. By extending the study over a grid of different parameters for the fundamentalist trading strategy, we exhibit the existence of monotone relationships between the bid-ask spread demanded by the agents and several statistics of the returns. We conjecture that this effect, coupled with positive dependence of the risk premium on the volatility, generates positive feedbacks that might explain volatility bursts.

  18. Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eran Bendavid

    Full Text Available Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data.Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5q(x. We then compare our (5q(x estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old.We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased. WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%. However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9% and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%. Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60.Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with

  19. Negative Control Outcomes and the Analysis of Standardized Mortality Ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Keil, Alexander P; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; Cooper, Glinda

    2015-09-01

    In occupational cohort mortality studies, epidemiologists often compare the observed number of deaths in the cohort to the expected number obtained by multiplying person-time accrued in the study cohort by the mortality rate in an external reference population. Interpretation of the result may be difficult due to noncomparability of the occupational cohort and reference population with respect to unmeasured risk factors for the outcome of interest. We describe an approach to estimate an adjusted standardized mortality ratio (aSMR) to control for such bias. The approach draws on methods developed for the use of negative control outcomes. Conditions necessary for unbiased estimation are described, as well as looser conditions necessary for bias reduction. The approach is illustrated using data on bladder cancer mortality among male Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. The SMR for bladder cancer was elevated among hourly-paid males (SMR = 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3, 2.7) but not among monthly-paid males (SMR = 1.0; 95% CI = 0.67, 1.3). After indirect adjustment using the proposed approach, the mortality ratios were similar in magnitude among hourly- and monthly-paid men (aSMR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.5, 3.2; and, aSMR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4, 2.8, respectively). The proposed adjusted SMR offers a complement to typical SMR analyses.

  20. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  1. Serbia within the European context: An analysis of premature mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinkovic Jelena

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on the global predictions majority of deaths will be collectively caused by cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and traffic accidents over the coming 25 years. In planning future national health policy actions, inter – regional assessments play an important role. The purpose of the study was to analyze similarities and differences in premature mortality between Serbia, EURO A, EURO B, and EURO C regions in 2000. Methods Mortality and premature mortality patterns were analysed according to cause of death, by gender and seven age intervals. The study results are presented in relative (% and absolute terms (age-specific and age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population, and age-standardized rates of years of life lost – YLL per 1,000. Direct standardization of rates was undertaken using the standard population of Europe. The inter-regional comparison was based on a calculation of differences in YLL structures and with a ratio of age-standardized YLL rates per 1,000. A multivariate generalized linear model was used to explore mortality of Serbia and Europe sub-regions with ln age-specific death rates. The dissimilarity was achieved with a p ≤ 0.05. Results According to the mortality pattern, Serbia was similar to EURO B, but with a lower average YLL per death case. YLL patterns indicated similarities between Serbia and EURO A, while SRR YLL had similarities between Serbia and EURO B. Compared to all Europe sub-regions, Serbia had a major excess of premature mortality in neoplasms and diabetes mellitus. Serbia had lost more years of life than EURO A due to cardiovascular, genitourinary diseases, and intentional injuries. Yet, Serbia was not as burdened with communicable diseases and injuries as were EURO B and EURO C. Conclusion With a premature mortality pattern, Serbia is placed in the middle position of the Europe triangle. The main excess of YLL in Serbia was due to cardiovascular, malignant diseases, and

  2. A critical review and meta-analysis of the association between overt hyperthyroidism and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Frans; Green, Anders; Hegedüs, Laszlo

    2011-01-01

    Overt hyperthyroidism has been associated with cardiac arrhythmias, hypercoagulopathy, stroke, and pulmonary embolism, all of which may increase mortality. Some, but not all, studies show an increased mortality in patients with hyperthyroidism. This inconsistency may be due to differences in stud...... design, characteristics of participants, or confounders. In order to test whether hyperthyroidism influences mortality, we performed a critical review and statistical meta-analysis....

  3. Mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a temporal trend analysis in Brazil, 1979-2014

    OpenAIRE

    Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Silva, Diego Rodrigues Mendonça e; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in Brazil over the period 1979-2014. Methods: Microdata were extracted from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database. Only deaths for which the underlying cause was coded as International Classification of Diseases version 9 (ICD-9) 515 or 516.3 (until 1995) or as ICD version 10 (ICD-10) J84.1 (from 1996 onward) were included in our analysis. Standardized mortality rates were calculated for...

  4. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the consumption of alcohol and liver cirrhosis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

    The question whether intake of alcohol is associated with liver cirrhosis mortality is analyzed using aggregate data for alcohol consumption, alcohol related diseases and alcohol policies of 16 European countries. The empirical analysis gives support to a close association between cirrhosis morta...... mortality and intake of alcohol - and the latter also concerns each of the specific beverages, i.e. spirits, wine and beer, where other studies usually only find evidence of spirits and wine related to liver cirrhosis mortality.  ...

  5. Public Reporting of Primary Care Clinic Quality: Accounting for Sociodemographic Factors in Risk Adjustment and Performance Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wholey, Douglas R; Finch, Michael; Kreiger, Rob; Reeves, David

    2018-01-03

    Performance measurement and public reporting are increasingly being used to compare clinic performance. Intended consequences include quality improvement, value-based payment, and consumer choice. Unintended consequences include reducing access for riskier patients and inappropriately labeling some clinics as poor performers, resulting in tampering with stable care processes. Two analytic steps are used to maximize intended and minimize unintended consequences. First, risk adjustment is used to reduce the impact of factors outside providers' control. Second, performance categorization is used to compare clinic performance using risk-adjusted measures. This paper examines the effects of methodological choices, such as risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors in risk adjustment and accounting for patients clustering by clinics in performance categorization, on clinic performance comparison for diabetes care, vascular care, asthma, and colorectal cancer screening. The population includes all patients with commercial and public insurance served by clinics in Minnesota. Although risk adjusting for sociodemographic factors has a significant effect on quality, it does not explain much of the variation in quality. In contrast, taking into account the nesting of patients within clinics in performance categorization has a substantial effect on performance comparison.

  6. Serbia within the European context: An analysis of premature mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santric Milicevic, Milena; Bjegovic, Vesna; Terzic, Zorica; Vukovic, Dejana; Kocev, Nikola; Marinkovic, Jelena; Vasic, Vladimir

    2009-08-05

    Based on the global predictions majority of deaths will be collectively caused by cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and traffic accidents over the coming 25 years. In planning future national health policy actions, inter - regional assessments play an important role. The purpose of the study was to analyze similarities and differences in premature mortality between Serbia, EURO A, EURO B, and EURO C regions in 2000. Mortality and premature mortality patterns were analysed according to cause of death, by gender and seven age intervals. The study results are presented in relative (%) and absolute terms (age-specific and age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population, and age-standardized rates of years of life lost - YLL per 1,000). Direct standardization of rates was undertaken using the standard population of Europe. The inter-regional comparison was based on a calculation of differences in YLL structures and with a ratio of age-standardized YLL rates per 1,000. A multivariate generalized linear model was used to explore mortality of Serbia and Europe sub-regions with ln age-specific death rates. The dissimilarity was achieved with a p financial and human resources incorporated in the prevention of disease and injury burden.

  7. Determinants of traffic accident mortality in The Netherlands: a geographical analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Beeck, E. F.; Mackenbach, J. P.; Looman, C. W.; Kunst, A. E.

    1991-01-01

    In the Netherlands, a country with one of the lowest levels of traffic accident mortality in the world, large regional mortality differences can be observed. An analysis was performed of the contribution of regional differences in traffic mobility (kilometers travelled/person-years), injury rate

  8. Acute Myocardial Infarction, Use of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, and Mortality: A Comparative Effectiveness Analysis Covering Seven European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, Terje P; Häkkinen, Unto; Belicza, Eva; Fatore, Giovanni; Goude, Fanny

    2015-12-01

    Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients have increased substantially in the last 12-15 years because of its clinical effectiveness. The expansion of PCI treatment for AMI patients raises two questions: How did PCI utilization rates vary across European regions, and which healthcare system and regional characteristic variables correlated with the utilization rate? Were the differences in use of PCI associated with differences in outcome, operationalized as 30-day mortality? We obtained our results from a dataset based on the administrative information systems of the populations of seven European countries. PCI rates were highest in the Netherlands, followed by Sweden and Hungary. The probability of receiving PCI was highest in regions with their own PCI facilities and in healthcare systems with activity-based reimbursement systems. Thirty-day mortality rates differed considerably between the countries with the highest rates in Hungary, Scotland, and Finland. Mortality was lowest in Sweden and Norway. The associations between PCI and mortality were remarkable in all age groups and across most countries. Despite extensive risk adjustment, we interpret the associations both as effects of selection and treatments. We observed a lower effect of PCI in the higher age groups in Hungary. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs based on the minimum data set for home care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirdes John P

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC. Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a client covariates only; b client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI. Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did

  10. Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs) based on the minimum data set for home care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalby, Dawn M; Hirdes, John P; Fries, Brant E

    2005-01-01

    Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs) based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC). Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA) in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a) client covariates only; b) client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP) to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c) client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI). Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did substantially affect the

  11. The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

    2004-06-01

    Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

  12. Mortality and cancer morbidity among cement production workers: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, Francesca; Garzaro, Giacomo; Pira, Enrico; Boffetta, Paolo

    2016-11-01

    To analyze overall and cause-specific mortality, especially from cancer, among cement production workers. Results from some epidemiological studies suggested an increased risk of overall mortality and of stomach cancer associated with employment in the cement production, but the presence of a hazard and, if present, the magnitude of a risk have not been precisely quantified. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of data on mortality from all causes, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, and cancer among cement workers. The literature search in PubMed and Scopus up to February 2016 and with appropriate keywords on mortality among cement workers revealed 188 articles which were screened. A total of 117 articles were reviewed in full text and 12 articles, referring to 11 study populations, were found to be relevant and of sufficient quality for further analysis. Meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects model. Eight cohort studies, one proportionate mortality study, and two case-control studies were identified. The summary RRs were 0.89 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.01] for all-cause mortality, 0.94 (95 %, CI 0.80-1.08) for cancer mortality, 1.07 (95 % CI 0.79-1.35) for lung cancer mortality, and 0.93 (95 % CI 0.70-1.17) for stomach cancer mortality, respectively. Significant heterogeneity in results was observed among studies. The present meta-analysis does not provide evidence of increased risk of overall mortality, as well as cancer, cardiovascular or respiratory mortality in relation to employment in cement production.

  13. Analysis of cerebrovascular mortality trends in Spain from 1980 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Escudero-Martínez, I; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F; Jiménez, M D; Montaner, J

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have declined significantly in many countries. This study analyses changes in CVD mortality rates in Spain (1980-2011) to determine if previously observed trends remain. Data on CVD mortality rates and the population data needed for the analysis were provided by Spain's National Statistics Institute. We calculated age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised overall mortality, and age-truncated mortality (35-64 years) using the direct method and standard European population structure. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the percentage of annual change in rates and identify significant changes in trends. CVD mortality rate decreased considerably and continuously over the last 32 years in all age groups and in both sexes in Spain. For both sexes, joinpoint analysis identifies a final period with more marked decline: 2005-2011 in women (-6.3%) and 2007-2011 in men (-7.2%). CVD mortality rates displayed a marked and continuous decline in Spain between 1980 and 2011. Due to the ageing of the population, doctors expect an increase in CVD prevalence and therefore its magnitude in terms of disability and healthcare costs, which poses a challenge to our health system. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McWilliams, J Michael

    2016-03-01

    Spending targets (or benchmarks) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program must be set carefully to encourage program participation while achieving fiscal goals and minimizing unintended consequences, such as penalizing ACOs for serving sicker patients. Recently proposed regulatory changes include measures to make benchmarks more similar for ACOs in the same area with different historical spending levels. We found that ACOs vary widely in how their spending levels compare with those of other local providers after standard case-mix adjustments. Additionally adjusting for survey measures of patient health meaningfully reduced the variation in differences between ACO spending and local average fee-for-service spending, but substantial variation remained, which suggests that differences in care efficiency between ACOs and local non-ACO providers vary widely. Accordingly, measures to equilibrate benchmarks between high- and low-spending ACOs--such as setting benchmarks to risk-adjusted average fee-for-service spending in an area--should be implemented gradually to maintain participation by ACOs with high spending. Use of survey information also could help mitigate perverse incentives for risk selection and upcoding and limit unintended consequences of new benchmarking methodologies for ACOs serving sicker patients. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  16. A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

    2013-03-01

    In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  17. A STUDY ON THE RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS INDUSTRY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shivangi Agarwal

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Investing through mutual funds has gained interest in recent years as it offers optimal risk adjusted returns to investors. The Indian market is no exception and has witnessed a multifold growth in mutual funds over the years. As of 2016, the Indian market is crowded with over two thousand mutual fund schemes, each promising higher returns compared to their peers. This comes as a challenge for an ordinary investor to select the best portfolio to invest making it critical to analyse the performance of these funds. While understanding and analysing the historical performance of mutual funds do not guarantee future performance, however, this may give an idea of how the fund is likely to perform in different market conditions. In this research we address multiple research issues. These include measuring the performance of selected mutual schemes on the basis of risk and return and compare the performance of these selected schemes with benchmark index to see whether the scheme is outperforming or underperforming the benchmark. We also rank funds on the basis of performance and suggest strategies to invest in a mutual fund and therefore, our findings have significant relevance for investing public.

  18. Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

    2014-10-01

    We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Profile of congenital heart disease and correlation to risk adjustment for surgery; an echocardiographic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhtar, K.; Ahmed, W.

    2008-01-01

    To determine the pattern and profile of Congenital Heart Diseases (CHD) in paediatric patients (age 1 day to 18 years) presenting to a paediatric tertiary referral centre and its correlation to risk adjustment for surgery for congenital heart disease. Over a period of 6 months, 1149 cases underwent 2-D echocardiography. It was a non-probability purposive sampling. This study showed 25% of all referrals had normal hearts. A male preponderance (38%) was observed from 1 year to 5 years age group. Nineteen percent of the cases were categorized as cyanotic CHD with the remaining as acyanotic variety. Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) represented 10%, Ventricular Septal Defects (VSD) 24%, followed by Patent Ductus Arteriosus (PDA) and Atrial Septal Defect (ASD), which comprised 6.6% and 6.5% respectively. VSD was the most common association in patients with more complex CHD (10%) followed by PDA in 3% and ASD in 1.2% of the cases. Most of the cases were category 2 in the RACHS-1 scoring system. VSD and TOF formed the major groups of cases profiled. Most of the cases recommended for surgery for congenital heart disease belonged to the risk category 2 (28.1%) followed by the risk category 1 (12.7%) of the RACHS-1 scoring system. (author)

  20. Sources of variation in under-5 mortality across sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Heft-Neal, Sam; Bendavid, Eran

    2016-12-01

    Detailed spatial understanding of levels and trends in under-5 mortality is needed to improve the targeting of interventions to the areas of highest need, and to understand the sources of variation in mortality. To improve this understanding, we analysed local-level information on child mortality across sub-Saharan Africa between 1980-2010. We used data from 82 Demographic and Health Surveys in 28 sub-Saharan African countries, including the location and timing of 3·24 million childbirths and 393 685 deaths, to develop high-resolution spatial maps of under-5 mortality in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. These estimates were at a resolution of 0·1 degree latitude by 0·1 degree longitude (roughly 10 km × 10 km). We then analysed this spatial information to distinguish within-country versus between-country sources of variation in mortality, to examine the extent to which declines in mortality have been accompanied by convergence in the distribution of mortality, and to study localised drivers of mortality differences, including temperature, malaria burden, and conflict. In our sample of sub-Saharan African countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, within-country differences in under-5 mortality accounted for 74-78% of overall variation in under-5 mortality across space and over time. Mortality differed significantly across only 8-15% of country borders, supporting the role of local, rather than national, factors in driving mortality patterns. We found that by the end of the study period, 23% of the eligible children in the study countries continue to live in mortality hotspots-areas where, if current trends continue, the Sustainable Developent Goals mortality targets will not be met. In multivariate analysis, within-country mortality levels at each pixel were significantly related to local temperature, malaria burden, and recent history of conflict. Our findings suggest that sub-national determinants explain a greater portion of under-5 mortality than do country

  1. Infant mortality in South Africa - distribution, associations and policy implications, 2007: an ecological spatial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sartorius Benn KD

    2011-11-01

    antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas.

  2. Size matters: a meta-analysis on the impact of hospital size on patient mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fareed, Naleef

    2012-06-01

    This paper seeks to understand the relationship between hospital size and patient mortality. Patient mortality has been used by several studies in the health services research field as a proxy for measuring healthcare quality. A systematic review is conducted to identify studies that investigate the impact of hospital size on patient mortality. Using the findings of 21 effect sizes from 10 eligible studies, a meta-analysis is performed using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses using three factors--the measure used for hospital size, type of mortality measure used and whether mortality was adjusted or unadjusted--were utilised to investigate their moderating influence on the study's primary relationship. Results from this analysis indicate that big hospitals have lower odds of patient mortality versus small hospitals. Specifically, the probability of patient mortality in a big hospital, in reference to a small hospital, is 11% less. Subgroup analyses show that studies with unadjusted mortality rates have an even lower overall odds ratio of mortality versus studies with adjusted mortality rates. Aside from some limitations in data reporting, the findings of this paper support theoretical notions that big hospitals have lower mortality rates than small hospitals. Guidelines for better data reporting and future research are provided to further explore the phenomenon. Policy implications of this paper's findings are underscored and a sense of urgency is called for in an effort to help improve the state of a healthcare system that struggles with advancing healthcare quality. © 2012 The Author. International Journal of Evidence-Based Healthcare © 2012 The Joanna Briggs Institute.

  3. Standardized analysis of German cattle mortality using national register data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannwitz, Gunter

    2015-03-01

    In a retrospective cohort study of national register data, 1946 randomly selected holdings, with 286,912 individual cattle accumulating 170,416 animal-years were analyzed. The sample was considered to represent the national herd in Germany 2012. Within each holding, individual cattle records were stratified by current age (≤21 days, 3-6 weeks, 6-12 weeks, 3-6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2, 2-4, 4-8, and >8 years), sex, breed (intensive milk, less intensive milk, and beef), and mean monthly air temperature (rate, slaughter rate, and federal state. 8027 on-site deaths (excluding slaughter for human consumption) were recorded, with cattle aged 2 years contributing 50.0%, 15.4%, and 34.6% of deaths, respectively. Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations (gee) accounting for intra-herd clustering were used to model the number of deaths. In both models, most age bands differed significantly, with highest rates in calves ≤21 days, falling to lowest rates in 1-2 year olds, and rising again thereafter in females. Males exhibited higher mortality than females from birth to 2 years. All breed categories differed significantly with lowest rates in beef and highest in intensive milk breeds. Larger holdings, temperatures ≤10°C, calving rates >0-0.5 per animal year were all associated with higher mortality. Via interaction, intensive and less intensive milk breed cattle aging 6 weeks to 6 months and intensive milk breed females >4 years were associated with higher mortality. There were no significant differences between federal states and slaughter rates. The standardized deviations of modeled dead cattle numbers from occurred deaths per calendar year per holding were calculated and a 95% reference range of deviations constructed. This approach makes a standardized active monitoring and surveillance system regardless of herd size possible, offering a useful, inexpensive and easy implementable aid in the detection of holdings deviant from mortality levels of the

  4. The impact of aortic manipulation on neurologic outcomes after coronary artery bypass surgery: a risk-adjusted study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapetanakis, Emmanouil I; Stamou, Sotiris C; Dullum, Mercedes K C; Hill, Peter C; Haile, Elizabeth; Boyce, Steven W; Bafi, Ammar S; Petro, Kathleen R; Corso, Paul J

    2004-11-01

    Cerebral embolization of atherosclerotic plaque debris caused by aortic manipulation during conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is a major mechanism of postoperative cerebrovascular accidents (CVA). Off-pump CABG (OPCABG) reduces stroke rates by minimizing aortic manipulation. Consequently, the effect of different levels of aortic manipulation on neurologic outcomes after CABG surgery was examined. From January 1998 to June 2002, 7,272 patients underwent isolated CABG surgery through three levels of aortic manipulation: full plus tangential (side-biting) aortic clamp application (on-pump surgery; n = 4,269), only tangential aortic clamp application (OPCABG surgery; n = 2,527) or an "aortic no-touch" technique (OPCABG surgery; n = 476). A risk-adjusted logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the likelihood of postoperative stroke with each technique. Preoperative risk factors for stroke from the literature, and those found significant in a univariable model were used. A significant association for postoperative stroke correspondingly increasing with the extent of aortic manipulation was demonstrated by the univariable analysis (CVA incidence respectively increasing from 0.8% to 1.6% to a maximum of 2.2%, p < 0.01). In the logistic regression model, patients who had a full and a tangential aortic clamp applied were 1.8 times more likely to have a stroke versus those without any aortic manipulation (95% confidence interval: 1.15 to 2.74, p < 0.01) and 1.7 times more likely to develop a postoperative stroke than those with only a tangential aortic clamp applied (95% confidence interval: 1.11 to 2.48, p < 0.01). Aortic manipulation during CABG is a contributing mechanism for postoperative stroke. The incidence of postoperative stroke increases with increased levels of aortic manipulation.

  5. Lower Mortality in Magnet Hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Matthew D.; Kelly, Lesly A.; Smith, Herbert L.; Wu, Evan S.; Vanak, Jill M.; Aiken, Linda H.

    2014-01-01

    Background Although there is evidence that hospitals recognized for nursing excellence—Magnet hospitals—are successful in attracting and retaining nurses, it is uncertain whether Magnet recognition is associated with better patient outcomes than non-Magnets, and if so why. Objectives To determine whether Magnet hospitals have lower risk-adjusted mortality and failure-to-rescue compared with non-Magnet hospitals, and to determine the most likely explanations. Method and Study Design Analysis of linked patient, nurse, and hospital data on 56 Magnet and 508 non-Magnet hospitals. Logistic regression models were used to estimate differences in the odds of mortality and failure-to-rescue for surgical patients treated in Magnet versus non-Magnet hospitals, and to determine the extent to which differences in outcomes can be explained by nursing after accounting for patient and hospital differences. Results Magnet hospitals had significantly better work environments and higher proportions of nurses with bachelor's degrees and specialty certification. These nursing factors explained much of the Magnet hospital effect on patient outcomes. However, patients treated in Magnet hospitals had 14% lower odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.76–0.98; P = 0.02) and 12% lower odds of failure-to-rescue (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.77–1.01; P = 0.07) while controlling for nursing factors as well as hospital and patient differences. Conclusions The lower mortality we find in Magnet hospitals is largely attributable to measured nursing characteristics but there is a mortality advantage above and beyond what we could measure. Magnet recognition identifies existing quality and stimulates further positive organizational behavior that improves patient outcomes. PMID:24022082

  6. Analysis of the mortality of the progeny of exposed parents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosenko, M.M.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the values, time course, and structure of mortality of the progeny of exposed residents of villages on the banks of the Techa river in the Urals. The exposure was caused by discharge of radioactive waste of Mayak radiochemical plant for the manufacture of bomb plutonium into the river. A total of 76x10 6 m 3 liquid waste with a total activity of 2,75x10 6 Ci was discharged into the river from 1949 to 1956. The population of villages on the banks of the river, 26554 subjects was exposed to external and internal radiation. The doses per gonads caused by external exposure and incorporation of evenly distributed radionuclides (mainly 137 Cs) ranged 20 to 1270 mSv. A total of 23869 children were born to exposed subjects since the beginning of exposure; 3160 of these were exposed in utero. The mortality rates int he studied cohort was nothigher than in controls. However, deaths from the so-called endogenous causes were more frequent for the descendants of exposed subjects: neonatal diseases, congenital developmental defects, and states that could not be accurately defined. Correlation of the number of deaths from congenital developmental defects to the collective gonadal dose permitted us to assess the risk as 0.004 perSv, this being in agreement with the estimates of the International Committee for Radiation Protection. 7 refs.; 2 figs.; 6 tabs

  7. Measuring Risk-adjusted Customer Lifetime Value and its Impact on Relationship Marketing Strategies and Shareholder Value

    OpenAIRE

    Ryals, Lynette; Knox, Simon

    2005-01-01

    The calculations which underlie efforts to balance marketing spending on customer acquisition and customer retention are usually based on either single- period customer profitability or forecasts of customer lifetime value (CLTV). This paper argues instead for risk-adjusted CLTV, which is termed the economic value (EV) of a customer, as the means for marketing to assess both customer profitability and shareholder value gains.

  8. Risk-adjusted capitation funding models for chronic disease in Australia: alternatives to casemix funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, K M; Walsh, M K

    2002-01-01

    Under Australian casemix funding arrangements that use Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) the average price is policy based, not benchmarked. Cost weights are too low for State-wide chronic disease services. Risk-adjusted Capitation Funding Models (RACFM) are feasible alternatives. A RACFM was developed for public patients with cystic fibrosis treated by an Australian Health Maintenance Organization (AHMO). Adverse selection is of limited concern since patients pay solidarity contributions via Medicare levy with no premium contributions to the AHMO. Sponsors paying premium subsidies are the State of Victoria and the Federal Government. Cost per patient is the dependent variable in the multiple regression. Data on DRG 173 (cystic fibrosis) patients were assessed for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, structural stability and functional form. Stepwise linear regression excluded non-significant variables. Significant variables were 'emergency' (1276.9), 'outlier' (6377.1), 'complexity' (3043.5), 'procedures' (317.4) and the constant (4492.7) (R(2)=0.21, SE=3598.3, F=14.39, Probpayment (constant). The model explained 21% of the variance in cost per patient. The payment rate is adjusted by a best practice annual admission rate per patient. The model is a blended RACFM for in-patient, out-patient, Hospital In The Home, Fee-For-Service Federal payments for drugs and medical services; lump sum lung transplant payments and risk sharing through cost (loss) outlier payments. State and Federally funded home and palliative services are 'carved out'. The model, which has national application via Coordinated Care Trials and by Australian States for RACFMs may be instructive for Germany, which plans to use Australian DRGs for casemix funding. The capitation alternative for chronic disease can improve equity, allocative efficiency and distributional justice. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) is a promising alternative classification system for capitation arrangements.

  9. Lost-to-follow-up bias in an occupational mortality analysis: a quantitative consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acquavella, J.F.; Tietjen, G.L.; Wilkinson, G.S.

    1982-12-01

    A major problem in occupational cohort studies is how to treat study subjects who are lost to follow-up (LTF). The assumptions made concerning their vital status may affect the results of comparative mortality analyses. The problem was considered within the context of an occupational follow-up study of white male employees at a nuclear facility in Colorado. In this analysis, 568 or 8% of cohort members were LTF. Comparative mortality for the entire cohort was estimated by treating LTF workers as lost at employment termination date, as living at the end-of-study date, and with cumulative mortality simulated between 0% and 100%. Results indicate that simulations of cumulative mortality among employees LTF can be useful in assessing the potential bias caused by LTF mortality assumptions. Further, a general method for assessing LTF bias in occupational analyses is proposed

  10. A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri--1980 and 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoyer, K E

    1998-08-01

    This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6 degrees C (105 degrees F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions.

  11. Spatiotemporal analysis of particulate air pollution and ischemic heart disease mortality in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Meimei; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Yajuan; Westerdahl, Dane; Mo, Yunzheng; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2014-12-12

    Few studies have used spatially resolved ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10) to examine the impact of PM10 on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in China. The aim of our study is to evaluate the short-term effects of PM10 concentrations on IHD mortality by means of spatiotemporal analysis approach. We collected daily data on air pollution, weather conditions and IHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2008 and 2009. Ordinary kriging (OK) was used to interpolate daily PM10 concentrations at the centroid of 287 township-level areas based on 27 monitoring sites covering the whole city. A generalized additive mixed model was used to estimate quantitatively the impact of spatially resolved PM10 on the IHD mortality. The co-effects of the seasons, gender and age were studied in a stratified analysis. Generalized additive model was used to evaluate the effects of averaged PM10 concentration as well. The averaged spatially resolved PM10 concentration at 287 township-level areas was 120.3 ± 78.1 μg/m3. Ambient PM10 concentration was associated with IHD mortality in spatiotemporal analysis and the strongest effects were identified for the 2-day average. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with an increase of 0.33% (95% confidence intervals: 0.13%, 0.52%) in daily IHD mortality. The effect estimates using spatially resolved PM10 were larger than that using averaged PM10. The seasonal stratification analysis showed that PM10 had the statistically stronger effects on IHD mortality in summer than that in the other seasons. Males and older people demonstrated the larger response to PM10 exposure. Our results suggest that short-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with increased IHD mortality. Spatial variation should be considered for assessing the impacts of particulate air pollution on mortality.

  12. Mortality in Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Judith Ju-Ming; Jit, Mark; Sultana, Rehena; Mok, Yee Hui; Yeo, Joo Guan; Koh, Jia Wen Janine Cynthia; Loh, Tsee Foong; Lee, Jan Hau

    2017-01-01

    Sparse and conflicting evidence exists regarding mortality risk from pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to determine the pooled mortality in pediatric ARDS and to describe its trend over time. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched from 1960 to August 2015. Keywords or medical subject headings (MESH) terms used included "respiratory distress syndrome, adult," "acute lung injury," "acute respiratory insufficiency," "acute hypoxemic respiratory failure," "pediatrics," and "child." Study inclusion criteria were (1) pediatric patients aged 0 days to 18 years, (2) sufficient baseline data described in the pediatric ARDS group, and (3) mortality data. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective observational studies were eligible. Data on study characteristics, patient demographics, measures of oxygenation, and mortality were extracted using a standard data extraction form. Independent authors conducted the search, applied the selection criteria, and extracted the data. Methodological quality of studies was assessed. Meta-analysis using a random-effects model was performed to obtain pooled estimates of mortality. Meta-regression was performed to analyze variables contributing to change in mortality over time. Eight RCTs and 21 observational studies (n = 2274 patients) were included. Pooled mortality rate was 24% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19-31). There was a decrease in mortality rates over 3 epochs (≤2000, 2001-2009, and ≥2010: 40% [95% CI: 24-59], 35% [95% CI: 21-51], and 18% [95% CI: 12-26], respectively, P < .001). Observational studies reported a higher mortality rate than RCTs (27% [95% CI: 24-29] versus 16% [95% CI: 12-20], P < .001). Earlier year of publication was an independent factor associated with mortality. Overall mortality rate in pediatric ARDS is approximately 24%. Studies conducted and published later were associated with better survival.

  13. The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult

  14. A critical review and meta-analysis of the association between overt hyperthyroidism and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Frans; Green, Anders; Hegedüs, Laszlo; Brix, Thomas H

    2011-10-01

    Overt hyperthyroidism has been associated with cardiac arrhythmias, hypercoagulopathy, stroke, and pulmonary embolism, all of which may increase mortality. Some, but not all, studies show an increased mortality in patients with hyperthyroidism. This inconsistency may be due to differences in study design, characteristics of participants, or confounders. In order to test whether hyperthyroidism influences mortality, we performed a critical review and statistical meta-analysis. Based on an electronic PubMed search, using the Medical Subject Heading words such as hyperthyroidism, thyrotoxicosis, and mortality or survival, case-control and cohort studies were selected and reviewed. Using meta-analysis, an overall relative risk (RR) of mortality was calculated. Eight studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, six of which showed an increased all-cause mortality; seven studies, including 31,138 patients and 400,000 person years at risk, allowed calculation of mortality in a meta-analysis. Based on this, the RR of overall mortality was 1.21 (95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.38). Analyses including studies considering setting, treatment, and control for co-morbidity did not significantly alter this finding. As the measured heterogeneity (I(2)) ranges from 89.1 to 98.3%, which is much higher than the 50% generally viewed on as a threshold, the statistical heterogeneity is very pronounced in the included studies. In patients diagnosed with hyperthyroidism, mortality is increased by ∼ 20%. Future studies need to address the cause of hyperthyroidism, impact of type of therapy, time dependency, as well as the potential influence of confounding or genetic susceptibility before the question of causality can be answered.

  15. Air pollution and tuberculosis disease mortality: a quantitative analysis (a viewpoint)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koshal, R K; Koshal, M

    1976-01-01

    This paper establishes a quantitative relationship between tuberculosis mortality rates and the levels of air pollution and other socio-economic variables by using a macro-model. With the help of regression analysis, it is observed that a hundred percent increase in the air pollution would imply an increase in the mortality rate by about 45--79 percent. An average improvement of 50 percent in the quality of air would reduce the tuberculosis mortality rate by 22.5--39.5 percent. This would imply a social saving of about $139 to $234 million per year in terms of tuberculosis only.

  16. Second analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murata, Motoi; Ohshima, Sumio; Kudo, Shin-ichi

    2002-01-01

    A cohort study of nuclear industry workers was begun in 1990 to determine the possible health effect of low dose radiation exposure. A follow-up study of about 244,000 male workers was conducted using residence registration records. About 176,000 subjects were successfully followed up, and 5,527 deaths were ascertained during the period of observation 1986 through 1997. Underlying causes of death were identified by record linkage with magnetic tape records of national vital statistics data. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated with Japanese males in general as the reference population. Tests for trends in death rates were made against cumulative radiation dose. The SMR (and its 95% confidence interval) was 0.90 (0.87-0.92) for all causes, 0.80 (0.77-0.84) for non-neoplastic diseases and 0.94 (0.90-0.98) for all cancer, respectively. The lower SMR was ascribed to possible healthy worker effects, etc. In the trend analyses, the death rate for neither all cancers sites nor leukemia showed any positive correlation with radiation dose, while significantly positive correlations were found for cancers of the esophagus (p<0.001), stomach (p<0.05) and rectum (p<0.05), and also for external causes (p<0.001). In lifestyle survey studies of 49,000 workers, both smoking and drinking habits were positively correlated with radiation dose. These lifestyle characteristics may have been important factors affecting the present results

  17. A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

  18. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franciane F. Silva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. RESULTS: Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually, while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females. CONCLUSIONS: The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis.

  19. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

    2014-01-01

    Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  20. Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionides, Edward L; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A

    2013-10-03

    Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

  1. Fournier’s gangrene: our experience with 50 patients and analysis of factors affecting mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Fournier’s gangrene is a rare, rapidly progressive, necrotizing fasciitis of the external genitalia and perineum. Case series have shown a mortality rate of 20% to 40% with an incidence of as high as 88% in some reports. In this study we aimed to share our experience in the management of Fournier’s gangrene and to identify risk factors that affect mortality. Methods The medical records of 50 patients with Fournier’s gangrene who presented at the University Hospital Hassan II of Fez from January 2003 to December 2009 were reviewed retrospectively to analyze the outcome and identify the risk factors and prognostic indicators of mortality. Results Ten males and five females were enrolled in the study. The mean age was 54 years (range 23–81). The most common predisposing factor was diabetes mellitus (34%). E. coli was the most frequent bacterial organisms cultured. All patients were treated with a common approach of resuscitation, broad-spectrum antibiotics, and wide surgical excision. The mortality rate was 24%. The advanced age, renal failure on admission, extension of infection to the abdominal wall, occurrence of septic shock and need for postoperative mechanical ventilation are the main prognostic factors of mortality. In multivariate analysis, none of these variables is an independent predictor of mortality. Conclusions Fournier’s gangrene is still a very severe disease with high mortality rates. Early recognition of infection associated with invasive and aggressive treatment is essential for attempting to reduce these prognostic indices. PMID:23547796

  2. Excess mortality associated with hypopituitarism in adults: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappachan, Joseph M; Raskauskiene, Diana; Kutty, V Raman; Clayton, Richard N

    2015-04-01

    Several previous observational studies showed an association between hypopituitarism and excess mortality. Reports on reduction of standard mortality ratio (SMR) with GH replacement have been published recently. This meta-analysis assessed studies reporting SMR to clarify mortality risk in hypopituitary adults and also the potential benefit conferred by GH replacement. A literature search was performed in Medline, Embase, and Cochrane library up to March 31, 2014. Studies with or without GH replacement reporting SMR with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were included. Patient characteristics, SMR data, and treatment outcomes were independently assessed by two authors, and with consensus from third author, studies were selected for analysis. Meta-analysis was performed in all studies together, and those without and with GH replacement separately, using the statistical package metafor in R. Six studies reporting a total of 19 153 hypopituiatary adults with a follow-up duration of more than 99,000 person years were analyzed. Hypopituitarism was associated with an overall excess mortality (weighted SMR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.21-2.76) in adults. Female hypopituitary adults showed higher SMR compared with males (2.53 vs 1.71). Onset of hypopituitarism at a younger age was associated with higher SMR. GH replacement improved the mortality risk in hypopituitary adults that is comparable to the background population (SMR with GH replacement, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.24 vs SMR without GH, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.46-3.34). GH replacement conferred lower mortality benefit in hypopituitary women compared with men (SMR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.38-1.77 vs 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85-1.06). There was a potential selection bias of benefit of GH replacement from a post-marketing data necessitating further evidence from long-term randomized controlled trials. Hypopituitarism may increase premature mortality in adults. Mortality benefit from GH replacement in hypopituitarism is less pronounced in women than men.

  3. Malignant Lymphatic and Hematopoietic Neoplasms Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2010: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

    2014-01-01

    Background Limited data on mortality from malignant lymphatic and hematopoietic neoplasms have been published for Serbia. Methods The study covered population of Serbia during the 1991–2010 period. Mortality trends were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results Trend for overall death rates from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms significantly decreased: by −2.16% per year from 1991 through 1998, and then significantly increased by +2.20% per year for the 1998–2010 period. The growth during the entire period was on average +0.8% per year (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3). Mortality was higher among males than among females in all age groups. According to the comparability test, mortality trends from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P = 0.232). Among younger Serbian population (0–44 years old) in both sexes: trends significantly declined in males for the entire period, while in females 15–44 years of age mortality rates significantly declined only from 2003 onwards. Mortality trend significantly increased in elderly in both genders (by +1.7% in males and +1.5% in females in the 60–69 age group, and +3.8% in males and +3.6% in females in the 70+ age group). According to the comparability test, mortality trend for Hodgkin's lymphoma differed significantly from mortality trends for all other types of malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms (P<0.05). Conclusion Unfavourable mortality trend in Serbia requires targeted intervention for risk factors control, early diagnosis and modern therapy. PMID:25333862

  4. Creatinine Change on Vasoconstrictors as Mortality Surrogate in Hepatorenal Syndrome: Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin M Belcher

    Full Text Available Hepatorenal syndrome is a severe complication of cirrhosis and associates with significant mortality. Vasoconstrictor medications improve renal function in patients with hepatorenal syndrome. However, it is unclear to what extent changes in serum creatinine during treatment may act as a surrogate for changes in mortality. We have performed a meta-analysis of randomized trials of vasoconstrictors assessing the association between changes in serum creatinine, taken as a continuous variable, and mortality, both while on treatment and during the follow-up period for survivors.The electronic databases of PubMed, Web of Science and Embase were searched for randomized trials evaluating the efficacy of vasoconstrictor therapy for treatment of HRS type 1 or 2. The relative risk (RR for mortality was calculated against delta creatinine. The proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE was calculated for delta creatinine.Seven trials enrolling 345 patients were included. The correlation between delta creatinine and ln (RR was moderately good (R2 = 0.61. The intercept and parameter estimate indicated a fall in creatinine while on treatment of 1 mg/dL resulted in a 27% reduction in RR for mortality compared to the control arm. In patients surviving the treatment period, a fall in creatinine while on treatment of 1 mg/dL resulted in a 16% reduction in RR for post-treatment mortality during follow-up. The PTE of delta creatinine for overall mortality was 0.91 and 0.26 for post-treatment mortality.Changes in serum creatinine in response to vasoconstrictor therapy appear to be a valid surrogate for mortality, even in the period following the completion of treatment.

  5. Creatinine Change on Vasoconstrictors as Mortality Surrogate in Hepatorenal Syndrome: Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcher, Justin M.; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Hepatorenal syndrome is a severe complication of cirrhosis and associates with significant mortality. Vasoconstrictor medications improve renal function in patients with hepatorenal syndrome. However, it is unclear to what extent changes in serum creatinine during treatment may act as a surrogate for changes in mortality. We have performed a meta-analysis of randomized trials of vasoconstrictors assessing the association between changes in serum creatinine, taken as a continuous variable, and mortality, both while on treatment and during the follow-up period for survivors. Methods The electronic databases of PubMed, Web of Science and Embase were searched for randomized trials evaluating the efficacy of vasoconstrictor therapy for treatment of HRS type 1 or 2. The relative risk (RR) for mortality was calculated against delta creatinine. The proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE) was calculated for delta creatinine. Results Seven trials enrolling 345 patients were included. The correlation between delta creatinine and ln (RR) was moderately good (R2 = 0.61). The intercept and parameter estimate indicated a fall in creatinine while on treatment of 1 mg/dL resulted in a 27% reduction in RR for mortality compared to the control arm. In patients surviving the treatment period, a fall in creatinine while on treatment of 1 mg/dL resulted in a 16% reduction in RR for post-treatment mortality during follow-up. The PTE of delta creatinine for overall mortality was 0.91 and 0.26 for post-treatment mortality. Conclusions Changes in serum creatinine in response to vasoconstrictor therapy appear to be a valid surrogate for mortality, even in the period following the completion of treatment. PMID:26295585

  6. Estimating global mortality from potentially foodborne diseases: an analysis using vital registration data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanson Laura A

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foodborne diseases (FBD comprise a large part of the global mortality burden, yet the true extent of their impact remains unknown. The present study utilizes multiple regression with the first attempt to use nonhealth variables to predict potentially FBD mortality at the country level. Methods Vital registration (VR data were used to build a multiple regression model incorporating nonhealth variables in addition to traditionally used health indicators. This model was subsequently used to predict FBD mortality rates for all countries of the World Health Organization classifications AmrA, AmrB, EurA, and EurB. Results Statistical modeling strongly supported the inclusion of nonhealth variables in a multiple regression model as predictors of potentially FBD mortality. Six variables were included in the final model: percent irrigated land, average calorie supply from animal products, meat production in metric tons, adult literacy rate, adult HIV/AIDS prevalence, and percent of deaths under age 5 caused by diarrheal disease. Interestingly, nonhealth variables were not only more robust predictors of mortality than health variables but also remained significant when adding additional health variables into the analysis. Mortality rate predictions from our model ranged from 0.26 deaths per 100,000 (Netherlands to 15.65 deaths per 100,000 (Honduras. Reported mortality rates of potentially FBD from VR data lie within the 95% prediction interval for the majority of countries (37/39 where comparison was possible. Conclusions Nonhealth variables appear to be strong predictors of potentially FBD mortality at the country level and may be a powerful tool in the effort to estimate the global mortality burden of FBD. Disclaimer The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the World Health Organization.

  7. Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

    2017-03-15

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. C-reactive protein level predicts mortality in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Leuzzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The prognostic role of baseline C-reactive protein (CRP in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is controversial. In order to clarify this issue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the predictive effect of baseline CRP level in COPD patients. 15 eligible articles focusing on late mortality in COPD were included in our study. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis, and assessed heterogeneity and publication bias. We pooled hazard ratio (HR estimates and their 95% confidence intervals on mortality for the comparison between the study-specific highest category of CRP level versus the lowest category. In overall analysis, elevated baseline CRP levels were significantly associated with higher mortality (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.32–1.77, I2=68.7%, p<0.001. Similar results were observed across subgroups. However, higher mortality risk was reported in studies using a cut-off value of 3 mg·L−1 (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12–2.30 and in those enrolling an Asiatic population (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.69–7.31. Our analysis indicates that baseline high CRP level is significantly associated with higher late mortality in patients with COPD. Further prospective controlled studies are needed to confirm these data.

  9. Hyponatremia improvement is associated with a reduced risk of mortality: evidence from a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Corona

    Full Text Available Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte disorder and it is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, there is no clear demonstration that the improvement of serum sodium concentration ([Na(+] counteracts the increased risk of mortality associated with hyponatremia. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis that included the published studies that addressed the effect of hyponatremia improvement on mortality.A Medline, Embase and Cochrane search was performed to retrieve all English-language studies of human subjects published up to June 30th 2014, using the following words: "hyponatremia", "hyponatraemia", "mortality", "morbidity" and "sodium". Fifteen studies satisfied inclusion criteria encompassing a total of 13,816 patients. The identification of relevant abstracts, the selection of studies and the subsequent data extraction were performed independently by two of the authors, and conflicts resolved by a third investigator. Across all fifteen studies, any improvement of hyponatremia was associated with a reduced risk of overall mortality (OR=0.57[0.40-0.81]. The association was even stronger when only those studies (n=8 reporting a threshold for serum [Na(+] improvement to >130 mmol/L were considered (OR=0.51[0.31-0.86]. The reduced mortality rate persisted at follow-up (OR=0.55[0.36-0.84] at 12 months. Meta-regression analyses showed that the reduced mortality associated with hyponatremia improvement was more evident in older subjects and in those with lower serum [Na(+] at enrollment.This meta-analysis documents for the first time that improvement in serum [Na(+] in hyponatremic patients is associated with a reduction of overall mortality.

  10. Excess under-5 female mortality across India: a spatial analysis using 2011 census data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Z Guilmoto, PhD

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts. Methods: Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method, we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level. Findings: Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1–22·6 in India 2000–2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000–293 000 per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India. Interpretation: The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth. Funding: None.

  11. Excess under-5 female mortality across India: a spatial analysis using 2011 census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilmoto, Christophe Z; Saikia, Nandita; Tamrakar, Vandana; Bora, Jayanta Kumar

    2018-06-01

    Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population) today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts. Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method), we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level. Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1-22·6) in India 2000-2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000-293 000) per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India. The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth. None. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Improving Results of Elective Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair at a Low-Volume Hospital by Risk-Adjusted Selection of Treatment in the Endovascular Era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wibmer, Andreas; Meyer, Bernhard; Albrecht, Thomas; Buhr, Heinz-Johannes; Kruschewski, Martin

    2009-01-01

    open repair was reduced from 8.5% to 3.7% (p = 0.414). In conclusion, by risk-adjusted selection of treatment and frequent application of EVAR, it is possible to improve perioperative outcome of elective AAA repair at a low-volume hospital. Mortality figures are similar to those of recent trials at high-volume centers, as reported in the literature.

  13. Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

    2017-12-06

    For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Oesophageal atresia in premature infants: an analysis of morbidity and mortality over a period of 20 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deurloo, J. A.; Smit, B. J.; Ekkelkamp, S.; Aronson, D. C.

    2004-01-01

    Aim: To determine the morbidity and mortality of premature infants born with oesophageal atresia (OA) and to evaluate historical changes in morbidity and mortality over time. Methods: Retrospective analysis of morbidity and mortality of all patients admitted for OA, with or without

  15. [Time-series analysis on effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, De-zheng; Gu, Qing; Jiang, Guo-hong; Yang, De-yi; Zhang, Hui; Song, Gui-de; Zhang, Ying

    2012-12-01

    To investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin, China, and to provide basis for stroke control and prevention. Total data of mortality surveillance were collected by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data and atmospheric pollution data were from Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Center, respectively. Generalized additive Poisson regression model was used in time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and stroke mortality in Tianjin. Single-pollutant analysis and multi-pollutant analysis were performed after adjustment for confounding factors such as meteorological factors, long-term trend of death, "days of the week" effect and population. The crude death rates of stroke in Tianjin were from 136.67 in 2001 to 160.01/100000 in 2009, with an escalating trend (P = 0.000), while the standardized mortality ratios of stroke in Tianjin were from 138.36 to 99.14/100000, with a declining trend (P = 0.000). An increase of 10 µg/m³ in daily average concentrations of atmospheric SO₂, NO₂ and PM₁₀ led to 1.0105 (95%CI: 1.0060 ∼ 1.0153), 1.0197 (95%CI: 1.0149 ∼ 1.0246) and 1.0064 (95%CI: 1.0052 ∼ 1.0077), respectively, in relative risks of stroke mortality. SO₂ effect peaked after 1-day exposure, while NO₂ and PM₁₀ effects did within 1 day. Air pollution in Tianjin may increase the risk of stroke mortality in the population and induce acute onset of stroke. It is necessary to carry out air pollution control and allocate health resources rationally to reduce the hazard of stroke mortality.

  16. The effect of tuberculosis on mortality in HIV positive people: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masja Straetemans

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death in people living with HIV (PLWH. We conducted a meta analysis to assess the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in people living with HIV. METHODS: Meta-analysis of cohort studies assessing the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH. To identify eligible studies we systematically searched electronic databases (until December 2008, performed manual searches of citations from relevant articles, and reviewed conference proceedings. Multivariate hazard ratios (HR of mortality in PLWH with and without tuberculosis, estimated in individual cohort studies, were pooled using random effect weighting according to "Der Simonian Laird method" if the p-value of the heterogeneity test was <0.05. RESULTS: Fifteen cohort studies were systematically retrieved. Pooled overall analysis of these 15 studies estimating the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH showed a Hazard Ratio (HR of 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI: 1.4-2.3. Subanalysis of 8 studies in which the cohort was not exposed to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART showed an HR of 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8-3.6. Subanalysis of 6 studies showed that tuberculosis did not show an effect on mortality in PLWH exposed to HAART: HR 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9-1.3. CONCLUSION: These results provide an indication of the magnitude of benefit to an individual that could have been expected if tuberculosis had been prevented. It emphasizes the need for additional studies assessing the effect of preventing tuberculosis or early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in PLWH on reducing mortality. Furthermore, the results of the subgroup analyses in cohorts largely exposed to HAART provide additional support to WHO's revised guidelines, which include promoting the initiation of HAART for PLWH co-infected with tuberculosis. The causal effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH exposed to HAART needs to be further evaluated once the results of more cohort studies

  17. Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Eileen K; Rutsohn, Joshua P; Turiano, Nicholas A; Bendayan, Rebecca; Batterham, Philip J; Gerstorf, Denis; Katz, Mindy J; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sharp, Emily S; Yoneda, Tomiko B; Bastarache, Emily D; Elleman, Lorien G; Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Johansson, Boo; Kuh, Diana; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Deeg, Dorly J H; Lipton, Richard B; Pedersen, Nancy L; Piccinin, Andrea M; Spiro, Avron; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Willis, Sherry L; Schaie, K Warner; Roan, Carol; Herd, Pamela; Hofer, Scott M; Mroczek, Daniel K

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HReffects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

  18. A case-crossover analysis of forest fire haze events and mortality in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahani, Mazrura; Zainon, Nurul Ashikin; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Latif, Mohd Talib; Hod, Rozita; Khan, Md Firoz; Tahir, Norhayati Mohd; Chan, Chang-Chuan

    2014-10-01

    The Southeast Asian (SEA) haze events due to forest fires are recurrent and affect Malaysia, particularly the Klang Valley region. The aim of this study is to examine the risk of haze days due to biomass burning in Southeast Asia on daily mortality in the Klang Valley region between 2000 and 2007. We used a case-crossover study design to model the effect of haze based on PM10 concentration to the daily mortality. The time-stratified control sampling approach was used, adjusted for particulate matter (PM10) concentrations, time trends and meteorological influences. Based on time series analysis of PM10 and backward trajectory analysis, haze days were defined when daily PM10 concentration exceeded 100 μg/m3. The results showed a total of 88 haze days were identified in the Klang Valley region during the study period. A total of 126,822 cases of death were recorded for natural mortality where respiratory mortality represented 8.56% (N = 10,854). Haze events were found to be significantly associated with natural and respiratory mortality at various lags. For natural mortality, haze events at lagged 2 showed significant association with children less than 14 years old (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.41; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.01-1.99). Respiratory mortality was significantly associated with haze events for all ages at lagged 0 (OR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.02-1.40). Age-and-gender-specific analysis showed an incremental risk of respiratory mortality among all males and elderly males above 60 years old at lagged 0 (OR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.09-1.64 and OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.09-1.84 respectively). Adult females aged 15-59 years old were found to be at highest risk of respiratory mortality at lagged 5 (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.03-1.99). This study clearly indicates that exposure to haze events showed immediate and delayed effects on mortality.

  19. Trichloroethylene Is Associated with Kidney Cancer Mortality: A Population-based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanee, Shaheen; Clemons, Joseph; Zahnd, Whitney; Sadowski, Daniel; Dynda, Danuta

    2015-07-01

    To examine the association between the distribution of trichloroethylene (TCE) exposure and mortality from kidney cancer (Kca) across United States counties. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the association of TCE discharges from industrial sites and age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for Kca during 2005 through 2010, controlling for confounders. A total of 163 counties were included in analysis. We observed an excess risk of Kca mortality associated with higher amounts of environmental TCE releases. A significant dose-response relationship was observed between TCE releases and Kca mortality in females. Smoking, education, income, hypertension, and obesity were significant predictors of incidence and mortality, consistent with previous research on the epidemiology of Kca. TCE exposure may increase the risk of mortality from Kca, an association not highlighted before. There is a need for policy measures to limit TCE discharge to the environment if these results are validated. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  20. Second analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1986-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohshima, Sumio; Murata, Motoi

    2001-01-01

    This article is a commentary concerning the second report of the study in the title committed by the Science and Technology Agency (the present Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to Radiation Effects Association. The study is an epidemiological one as for the relationships between long-term low dose radiation and its health effects in workers of nuclear industry like nuclear power plant and uses the cohort methodology for the factor (exposure dose) and diseases (mortality). In about 244,000 personnel, mortality was calculated from obtainable 179,000 resident cards of object males. For those died during the study period, cause of death was checked with the card for the movement of population (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare). The exposure dose was checked with the dose records of radiation workers stored in the registration center. Analysis results of standardized mortality ratio (comparison of mortality of the objects and non-object Japanese males) and of correlation of integrated dose and mortality gave no clear evidence that the low dose radiation exposure affects the mortality due to cancer. (K.H.)

  1. Mortality trends among Japanese dialysis patients, 1988-2013: a joinpoint regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakasugi, Minako; Kazama, Junichiro James; Narita, Ichiei

    2016-09-01

    Evaluation of mortality trends in dialysis patients is important for improving their prognoses. The present study aimed to examine temporal trends in deaths (all-cause, cardiovascular, noncardiovascular and the five leading causes) among Japanese dialysis patients. Mortality data were extracted from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy registry. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization against the 2013 dialysis population. The average annual percentage of change (APC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed for trends using joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 469 324 deaths occurred, of which 25.9% were from cardiac failure, 17.5% from infectious disease, 10.2% from cerebrovascular disorders, 8.6% from malignant tumors and 5.6% from cardiac infarction. The joinpoint trend for all-cause mortality decreased significantly, by -3.7% (95% CI -4.2 to -3.2) per year from 1988 through 2000, then decreased more gradually, by -1.4% (95% CI -1.7 to -1.2) per year during 2000-13. The improved mortality rates were mainly due to decreased deaths from cardiovascular disease, with mortality rates due to noncardiovascular disease outnumbering those of cardiovascular disease in the last decade. Among the top five causes of death, cardiac failure has shown a marked decrease in mortality rate. However, the rates due to infectious disease have remained stable during the study period [APC 0.1 (95% CI -0.2-0.3)]. Significant progress has been made, particularly with regard to the decrease in age-standardized mortality rates. The risk of cardiovascular death has decreased, while the risk of death from infection has remained unchanged for 25 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  2. Perinatal mortality classification: an analysis of 112 cases of stillbirth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Ana Paula; Rocha, Ana; Lebre, Andrea; Ramos, Umbelina; Cunha, Ana

    2017-10-01

    This was a retrospective cohort analysis of stillbirths that occurred from January 2004 to December 2013 in our institution. We compared Tulip and Wigglesworth classification systems on a cohort of stillbirths and analysed the main differences between these two classifications. In this period, there were 112 stillbirths of a total of 31,758 births (stillbirth rate of 3.5 per 1000 births). There were 99 antepartum deaths and 13 intrapartum deaths. Foetal autopsy was performed in 99 cases and placental histopathological examination in all of the cases. The Wigglesworth found 'unknown' causes in 47 cases and the Tulip classification allocated 33 of these. Fourteen cases remained in the group of 'unknown' causes. Therefore, the Wigglesworth classification of stillbirths results in a higher proportion of unexplained stillbirths. We suggest that the traditional Wigglesworth classification should be substituted by a classification that manages the available information.

  3. Meta-analysis of surgical safety checklist effects on teamwork, communication, morbidity, mortality, and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Vanessa E; Popejoy, Lori L

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of surgical safety checklists on teamwork, communication, morbidity, mortality, and compliance with safety measures through meta-analysis. Four meta-analyses were conducted on 19 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The effect size of checklists on teamwork and communication was 1.180 (p = .003), on morbidity and mortality was 0.123 (p = .003) and 0.088 (p = .001), respectively, and on compliance with safety measures was 0.268 (p teamwork and communication, reduce morbidity and mortality, and improve compliance with safety measures. This meta-analysis is limited in its generalizability based on the limited number of studies and the inclusion of only published research. Future research is needed to examine possible moderating variables for the effects of surgical safety checklists.

  4. Meat intake and cause-specific mortality: a pooled analysis of Asian prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung Eun; McLerran, Dale F; Rolland, Betsy; Chen, Yu; Grant, Eric J; Vedanthan, Rajesh; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Gao, Yu-Tang; Tsuji, Ichiro; Kakizaki, Masako; Ahsan, Habibul; Ahn, Yoon-Ok; Pan, Wen-Harn; Ozasa, Kotaro; Yoo, Keun-Young; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Yang, Gong; Watanabe, Takashi; Sugawara, Yumi; Parvez, Faruque; Kim, Dong-Hyun; Chuang, Shao-Yuan; Ohishi, Waka; Park, Sue K; Feng, Ziding; Thornquist, Mark; Boffetta, Paolo; Zheng, Wei; Kang, Daehee; Potter, John; Sinha, Rashmi

    2013-10-01

    Total or red meat intake has been shown to be associated with a higher risk of mortality in Western populations, but little is known of the risks in Asian populations. We examined temporal trends in meat consumption and associations between meat intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia. We used ecological data from the United Nations to compare country-specific meat consumption. Separately, 8 Asian prospective cohort studies in Bangladesh, China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan consisting of 112,310 men and 184,411 women were followed for 6.6 to 15.6 y with 24,283 all-cause, 9558 cancer, and 6373 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We estimated the study-specific HRs and 95% CIs by using a Cox regression model and pooled them by using a random-effects model. Red meat consumption was substantially lower in the Asian countries than in the United States. Fish and seafood consumption was higher in Japan and Korea than in the United States. Our pooled analysis found no association between intake of total meat (red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood) and risks of all-cause, CVD, or cancer mortality among men and women; HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality from a comparison of the highest with the lowest quartile were 1.02 (0.91, 1.15) in men and 0.93 (0.86, 1.01) in women. Ecological data indicate an increase in meat intake in Asian countries; however, our pooled analysis did not provide evidence of a higher risk of mortality for total meat intake and provided evidence of an inverse association with red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood. Red meat intake was inversely associated with CVD mortality in men and with cancer mortality in women in Asian countries.

  5. Meat intake and cause-specific mortality: a pooled analysis of Asian prospective cohort studies123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung Eun; McLerran, Dale F; Rolland, Betsy; Chen, Yu; Grant, Eric J; Vedanthan, Rajesh; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Gao, Yu-Tang; Tsuji, Ichiro; Kakizaki, Masako; Ahsan, Habibul; Ahn, Yoon-Ok; Pan, Wen-Harn; Ozasa, Kotaro; Yoo, Keun-Young; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Yang, Gong; Watanabe, Takashi; Sugawara, Yumi; Parvez, Faruque; Kim, Dong-Hyun; Chuang, Shao-Yuan; Ohishi, Waka; Park, Sue K; Feng, Ziding; Thornquist, Mark; Boffetta, Paolo; Zheng, Wei; Kang, Daehee; Potter, John; Sinha, Rashmi

    2013-01-01

    Background: Total or red meat intake has been shown to be associated with a higher risk of mortality in Western populations, but little is known of the risks in Asian populations. Objective: We examined temporal trends in meat consumption and associations between meat intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia. Design: We used ecological data from the United Nations to compare country-specific meat consumption. Separately, 8 Asian prospective cohort studies in Bangladesh, China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan consisting of 112,310 men and 184,411 women were followed for 6.6 to 15.6 y with 24,283 all-cause, 9558 cancer, and 6373 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We estimated the study-specific HRs and 95% CIs by using a Cox regression model and pooled them by using a random-effects model. Results: Red meat consumption was substantially lower in the Asian countries than in the United States. Fish and seafood consumption was higher in Japan and Korea than in the United States. Our pooled analysis found no association between intake of total meat (red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood) and risks of all-cause, CVD, or cancer mortality among men and women; HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality from a comparison of the highest with the lowest quartile were 1.02 (0.91, 1.15) in men and 0.93 (0.86, 1.01) in women. Conclusions: Ecological data indicate an increase in meat intake in Asian countries; however, our pooled analysis did not provide evidence of a higher risk of mortality for total meat intake and provided evidence of an inverse association with red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood. Red meat intake was inversely associated with CVD mortality in men and with cancer mortality in women in Asian countries. PMID:23902788

  6. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

  7. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  8. Mortality reduction by post-dilution online-haemodiafiltration : A cause-specific analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nubé, Menso J.; Peters, Sanne A E; Blankestijn, Peter J.; Canaud, Bernard; Davenport, Andrew; Grooteman, Muriel P C; Asci, Gulay; Locatelli, Francesco; Maduell, Francisco; Morena, Marion; Ok, Ercan; Torres, Ferran; Bots, Michiel L.; Moreso, Francesc; Pons, Mercedes; Ramos, Rosa; Mora-Macià, Josep; Carreras, Jordi; Soler, Jordi; Campistol, Josep M.; Martinez-Castelao, Alberto; Insensé, B.; Perez, C.; Feliz, T.; Barbetta, M.; Soto, C.; Mora, J.; Juan, A.; Ibrik, O.; Foraster, A.; Nin, J.; Fernández, A.; Arruche, M.; Sánchez, C.; Vidiella, J.; Barbosa, F.; Chiné, M.; Hurtado, S.; Llibre, J.; Ruiz, A.; Serra, M.; Salvó, M.; Poyuelo, T.; Maduell, F.; Carrera, M.; Fontseré, N.; Arias, M.; Merín, A.; Ribera, L.; Galceran, J. M.; Mòdol, J.; Moliner, E.; Ramirez, A.; Aguilera, J.; Alvarez, M.; De La Torre, B.; Molera, M.; Casellas, J.; Martín, G.; Andres, E.; Coll, E.; Valles, M.; Martínez, C.; Castellote, E.; Casals, J. M.; Gabàs, J.; Romero, M.; Martinez-Castelao, A.; Fulladosa, X.; Ramirez-Arellano, M.; Fulquet, M.; Pelegrí, A.; El Manouari, M.; Ramos, N.; Bartolomé, J.; Sans, R.; Fernández, E.; Sarró, F.; Compte, T.; Marco, F.; Mauri, R.; Bronsoms, J.; Arnaiz, J. A.; Beleta, H.; Pejenaute, A.; Ríos, J.; Lara, J.; Ter Wee, P. M.; Van Den Dorpel, M. A.; Dorval, M.; Lévesque, R.; Koopman, M. G.; Konings, C. J A M; Haanstra, W. P.; Kooistra, M.; Van Jaarsveld, B.; Noordzij, T.; Feith, G. W.; Peltenburg, H. G.; Van Buren, M.; Offerman, J. J G; Hoogeveen, E. K.; De Heer, F.; Van De Ven, P. J.; Kremer Hovinga, T. K.; Bax, W. A.; Groeneveld, J. O.; Lavrijssen, A. T J; Schrander-Van Der Meer, A. M.; Reichert, L. J M; Huussen, J.; Rensma, P. L.; Schrama, Y.; Van Hamersvelt, H. W.; Boer, W. H.; Van Kuijk, W. H.; Vervloet, M. G.; Wauters, I. M P M J; Sekse, I.; Toz, Huseyin; Ok, Ebru Sevinc; Kircelli, Fatih; Yilmaz, Mumtaz; Hur, Ender; Demirci, Meltem Sezis; Demirci, Cenk; Duman, Soner; Basci, Ali; Adam, Siddig Momin; Isik, Ismet Onder; Zengin, Murat; Suleymanlar, Gultekin; Yilmaz, Mehmet Emin; Ergin, Mehmet Ozkahya Pinar; Sagdic, Alfert; Kayali, Erkan; Boydak, Can; Colak, Taskin; Caliskan, Sihli; Kaplan, Hakan; Ulas, Hasibe; Kirbiyik, Sait; Berktas, Hakan; Dilbaz, Necati; Cristol, Jean Paul; Leray-Moragues, Hélène; Chenine, Leïla; Picot, Marie Christine; Jaussent, Audrey; Belloc, Claire; Lagarrigue, Mélodie; Chalabi, Lotfi; Debure, Alain; Ouziala, Messaoud; Lefevre, Jean Jacques; Thibaudin, Damien; Mohey, Hesham; Broyet, Christian; Afiani, Aida; Serveaux, Marie Odile; Patrier, Laure; Maurice, François; Rivory, Jean Pierre; Nicoud, Philippe; Durand, Claude; Normand, Michel; Seigneuric, Bruno; Magnant, Eric; Azzouz, Lynda; Islam, Mohamed Shariful; Vido, Sandor; Nzeyimana, Hilaire; Simonin, Danièle; Azymah, Yamina; Farah, Ibrahim; Coindre, Jean Philippe; Puyoo, Olivier; Chabannier, Marie Hélène; Ibos, Richard; Rouleau, Fabienne; Vela, Carlos; Joule, Josiane; Combarnous, François; Turc-Baron, Cécile; Ducret, Francis; Pointet, Philippe; Rey, Isabelle; Potier, Jacky; Bendini, Jean Christophe; Perrin, Franck; Kunz, Kristian; Lefrancois, Gaëlle; Colin, Angélique; Parahy, Sophie; Dancea, Irima; Coupel, Stéphanie; Testa, Angelo; Brunet, Philippe; Lebrun, Gaétan; Jaubert, Dominique; Delcroix, Catherine; Lavainne, Frédéric; Lefebvre, Anne; Guillodo, Marie Paule; Le Grignou, Dominique; Djema, Assia; Maaz, Mehadji; Chiron, Sylvie; Hoffmann, Maxime; Depraetre, Pascale; Haddj-Elmrabet, Atman; Joyeux, Véronique; Fleury, Dominique; Vrigneaud, Laurence; Lemaitre, Vincent; Aguilera, Didier; Guerraoui, Abdallah; Cremault, Alain; Laradi, Achour; Babinet, Francois

    Background. From an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis from four randomized controlled trials comparing haemodialysis (HD) with post-dilution online-haemodiafiltration (ol-HDF), previously it appeared that HDF decreases all-cause mortality by 14% (95% confidence interval 25; 1) and

  9. Application of principal component analysis to time series of daily air pollution and mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quant C; Fischer P; Buringh E; Ameling C; Houthuijs D; Cassee F; MGO

    2004-01-01

    We investigated whether cause-specific daily mortality can be attributed to specific sources of air pollution. To construct indicators of source-specific air pollution, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) on routinely collected air pollution data in the Netherlands during the period

  10. Weight change and all-cause mortality in older adults: A meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This meta-analysis of observational cohort studies examined the association between weight change (weight loss, weight gain, and weight fluctuation) and all-cause mortality among older adults. We used PubMed (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and Cochrane Library to identify prospective studies published in...

  11. The need for unique risk adjustment for surgical site infections at a high-volume, tertiary care center with inherent high-risk colorectal procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorgun, E; Benlice, C; Hammel, J; Hull, T; Stocchi, L

    2017-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to create a unique risk adjustment model for surgical site infection (SSI) in patients who underwent colorectal surgery (CRS) at the Cleveland Clinic (CC) with inherent high risk factors by using a nationwide database. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried to identify patients who underwent CRS between 2005 and 2010. Initially, CC cases were identified from all NSQIP data according to case identifier and separated from the other NSQIP centers. Demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes were compared. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between SSI and center-related factors. A total of 70,536 patients met the inclusion criteria and underwent CRS, 1090 patients (1.5%) at the CC and 69,446 patients (98.5%) at other centers. Male gender, work-relative value unit, diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease, pouch formation, open surgery, steroid use, and preoperative radiotherapy rates were significantly higher in the CC cases. Overall morbidity and individual postoperative complication rates were found to be similar in the CC and other centers except for the following: organ-space SSI and sepsis rates (higher in the CC cases); and pneumonia and ventilator dependency rates (higher in the other centers). After covariate adjustment, the estimated degree of difference between the CC and other institutions with respect to organ-space SSI was reduced (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.08-1.77). The unique risk adjustment strategy may provide center-specific comprehensive analysis, especially for hospitals that perform inherently high-risk procedures. Higher surgical complexity may be the reason for increased SSI rates in the NSQIP at tertiary care centers.

  12. Milrinone and mortality in adult cardiac surgery: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangrillo, Alberto; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Ponschab, Martin; Greco, Massimiliano; Corno, Laura; Covello, Remo Daniel; Cabrini, Luca; Bignami, Elena; Melisurgo, Giulio; Landoni, Giovanni

    2012-02-01

    The authors conducted a review of randomized studies to show whether there are any increases or decreases in survival when using milrinone in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. A meta-analysis. Hospitals. Five hundred eighteen patients from 13 randomized trials. None. BioMedCentral, PubMed EMBASE, the Cochrane central register of clinical trials, and conference proceedings were searched for randomized trials that compared milrinone versus placebo or any other control in the setting of cardiac surgery that reported data on mortality. Overall analysis showed that milrinone increased perioperative mortality (13/249 [5.2%] in the milrinone group v 6/269 [2.2%] in the control arm, odds ratio [OR] = 2.67 [1.05-6.79], p for effect = 0.04, p for heterogeneity = 0.23, I(2) = 25% with 518 patients and 13 studies included). Subanalyses confirmed increased mortality with milrinone (9/84 deaths [10.7%] v 3/105 deaths [2.9%] with other drugs as control, OR = 4.19 [1.27-13.84], p = 0.02) with 189 patients and 5 studies included) but did not confirm a difference in mortality (4/165 [2.4%] in the milrinone group v 3/164 [1.8%] with placebo or nothing as control, OR = 1.27 [0.28-5.84], p = 0.76 with 329 patients and 8 studies included). This analysis suggests that milrinone might increase mortality in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The effect was seen only in patients having an active inotropic drug for comparison and not in the placebo subgroup. Therefore, the question remains whether milrinone increased mortality or if the control inotropic drugs were more protective. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Dietary restriction of rodents decreases aging rate without affecting initial mortality rate -- a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Mirre J P; Koch, Wouter; Verhulst, Simon

    2013-06-01

    Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan in multiple species from various taxa. This effect can arise via two distinct but not mutually exclusive ways: a change in aging rate and/or vulnerability to the aging process (i.e. initial mortality rate). When DR affects vulnerability, this lowers mortality instantly, whereas a change in aging rate will gradually lower mortality risk over time. Unraveling how DR extends lifespan is of interest because it may guide toward understanding the mechanism(s) mediating lifespan extension and also has practical implications for the application of DR. We reanalyzed published survival data from 82 pairs of survival curves from DR experiments in rats and mice by fitting Gompertz and also Gompertz-Makeham models. The addition of the Makeham parameter has been reported to improve the estimation of Gompertz parameters. Both models separate initial mortality rate (vulnerability) from an age-dependent increase in mortality (aging rate). We subjected the obtained Gompertz parameters to a meta-analysis. We find that DR reduced aging rate without affecting vulnerability. The latter contrasts with the conclusion of a recent analysis of a largely overlapping data set, and we show how the earlier finding is due to a statistical artifact. Our analysis indicates that the biology underlying the life-extending effect of DR in rodents likely involves attenuated accumulation of damage, which contrasts with the acute effect of DR on mortality reported for Drosophila. Moreover, our findings show that the often-reported correlation between aging rate and vulnerability does not constrain changing aging rate without affecting vulnerability simultaneously. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and the Anatomical Society.

  14. THE ANALYSIS OF CANCER INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY AMONG THE POPULATION OF THE MOSCOW REGION IN 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Gurov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale: Analysis of the cancer incidence and mortality in the population is of major importance for planning of measures aimed at improvement of organization of medical care to cancer patients, ensuring high quality and availability of this type of medical care.Aim: To evaluate cancer-related incidence and mortality rates and structure among the population of the Moscow Region depending on patient gender and tumor localization.Materials and methods: The estimation and analysis of incidence and mortality rates was performed based on the Reporting Form of the Federal Statistic Surveillance #7 “Information on disorders related to malignant tumors” in the Moscow Region in 2014. For mortality analysis, including that among pediatric patients, we used data from the State Statistics Service of the Moscow Region.Results: In 2014, there were 25 600 new cases of malignancies diagnosed in the Moscow Region, that corresponded to the incidence rate of 363.2 per 100,000 of the population. The leading types of newly diagnosed tumors in men were prostate cancer, as well as tracheal, bronchial and lung cancers (54.2 and 47.0 per 100,000 of male population, respectively. In women, the highest incidence rates were found for breast and skin cancers (86.0 and 58.9 per 100,000 of female population, respectively. According to the data from Rosstat, in 2014, the overall cancer mortality rate in the Moscow Region was 228.1 per 100,000 of the population. Among the causes of cancer mortality in men, the leading one was tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer (22.2%, followed by stomach cancer (13.3% and prostate cancer (8.1%. In women, the leading cause of cancer mortality was breast cancer (16.6%, followed by ovarian, uterine and cervical cancers (14.1% and stomach cancer (11.4%.Conclusion: Based on the results of medical and statistical analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates, the main direction of improvement of medical care to cancer patients and the ways

  15. Dog Ownership and Mortality in England: A Pooled Analysis of Six Population-based Cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Ding; Bauman, Adrian E; Sherrington, Cathie; McGreevy, Paul D; Edwards, Kate M; Stamatakis, Emmanuel

    2018-02-01

    Dog ownership may be associated with reduced risk for cardiovascular disease. However, data are scant on the relationship between dog ownership and all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Data from six separate cohorts (1995-1997, 2001-2002, 2004) of the Health Survey for England were pooled and analyzed in 2017. Participants were 59,352 adults (mean age 46.5, SD=17.9 years) who consented to be linked to the National Death Registry. Living in a household with a dog was reported at baseline. Outcomes included all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality (determined using ICD-9 codes 390-459, ICD-10 codes I01-I99). Multilevel Weibull survival analysis was used to examine the associations between dog ownership and mortality, adjusted for various sociodemographic and lifestyle variables. Potential effect modifiers, including age, sex, education, living circumstances, longstanding illness, and prior diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, were also examined. During 679,441 person-years of follow-up (mean 11.5, SD=3.8 years), 8,169 participants died from all causes and 2,451 from cardiovascular disease. In the fully adjusted models, there was no statistically significant association between dog ownership and mortality outcomes (hazard ratio=1.03, 95% CI=0.98, 1.09, for all-cause mortality; and hazard ratio=1.07, 95% CI=0.96, 1.18, for cardiovascular disease mortality) and no significant effect modification. There is no evidence for an association between living in a household with a dog and all-cause or cardiovascular disease mortality in this large sample. These results should be interpreted in light of limitations in the measurement of dog ownership and its complexity in potential long-term health implications. Future studies should measure specific aspects of ownership, such as caring responsibilities and temporality. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Avoidable mortality among First Nations adults in Canada: A cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jungwee; Tjepkema, Michael; Goedhuis, Neil; Pennock, Jennifer

    2015-08-01

    Avoidable mortality is a measure of deaths that potentially could have been averted through effective prevention practices, public health policies, and/or provision of timely and adequate health care. This longitudinal analysis compares avoidable mortality among First Nations and non-Aboriginal adults. Data are from the 1991-to-2006 Canadian Census Mortality and Cancer Follow-up Study. A 15% sample of 1991 Census respondents aged 25 or older was linked to 16 years of mortality data. This study examines avoidable mortality among 61,220 First Nations and 2,510,285 non-Aboriginal people aged 25 to 74. During the 1991-to-2006 period, First Nations adults had more than twice the risk of dying from avoidable causes compared with non-Aboriginal adults. The age-standardized avoidable mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years at risk for First Nations men was 679.2 versus 337.6 for non-Aboriginal men (rate ratio = 2.01). For women, ASMRs were lower, but the gap was wider. The ASMR for First Nations women was 453.2, compared with 183.5 for non-Aboriginal women (rate ratio = 2.47). Disparities were greater at younger ages. Diabetes, alcohol and drug use disorders, and unintentional injuries were the main contributors to excess avoidable deaths among First Nations adults. Education and income accounted for a substantial share of the disparities. The results highlight the gap in avoidable mortality between First Nations and non-Aboriginal adults due to specific causes of death and the association with socioeconomic factors.

  17. Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; Miranda, Marina Jorge de; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Santos, Patrícia Carlos Dos; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

    2017-08-23

    Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Association between air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Hefei, China: A time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Ding, Rui; Xiao, Changchun; Xu, Yachun; Cheng, Han; Zhu, Furong; Lei, Ruoqian; Di, Dongsheng; Zhao, Qihong; Cao, Jiyu

    2017-10-01

    In recent years, air pollution has become an alarming problem in China. However, evidence on the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is still not conclusive to date. This research aimed to assess the short-term effects of air pollution on cardiovascular morbidity in Hefei, China. Data of air pollution, cardiovascular mortality, and meteorological characteristics in Hefei between 2010 and 2015 were collected. Time-series analysis in generalized additive model was applied to evaluate the association between air pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality. During the study period, the annual average concentration of PM 10, SO 2 , and NO 2 was 105.91, 20.58, and 30.93 μg/m 3 , respectively. 21,816 people (including 11,876 man, and 14,494 people over 75 years of age) died of cardiovascular diseases. In single pollutant model, the effects of multi-day exposure were greater than single-day exposure of the air pollution. For every increase of 10 μg/m 3 in SO 2 , NO 2 , and PM 10 levels, CVD mortality increased by 5.26% (95%CI: 3.31%-7.23%), 2.71% (95%CI: 1.23%-4.22%), and 0.68% (95%CI: 0.33%-1.04%) at a lag03, respectively. The multi-pollutant models showed that PM 10 and SO 2 remained associated with CVD mortality, although the effect estimates attenuated. However, the effect of NO 2 on CVD mortality decreased to statistically insignificant. Subgroup analyses further showed that women were more vulnerable than man upon air pollution exposure. These findings showed that air pollution could significantly increase the CVD mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A regional multilevel analysis: can skilled birth attendants uniformly decrease neonatal mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Suchindran, Chirayath

    2014-01-01

    Globally 40 % of deaths to children under-five occur in the very first month of life with three-quarters of these deaths occurring during the first week of life. The promotion of delivery with a skilled birth attendant (SBA) is being promoted as a strategy to reduce neonatal mortality. This study explored whether SBAs had a protective effect against neonatal mortality in three different regions of the world. The analysis pooled data from nine diverse countries for which recent Demographic and Health Survey data were available. Multilevel logistic regression was used to understand the influence of skilled delivery on two outcomes-neonatal mortality during the first week of life and during the first day of life. Control variables included age, parity, education, wealth, residence (urban/rural), geographic region (Africa, Asia and Latin America/Caribbean), antenatal care and tetanus immunization. The direction of the effect of skilled delivery on neonatal mortality was dependent on geographic region. While having a SBA at delivery was protective against neonatal mortality in Latin America/Caribbean, in Asia there was only a protective effect for births in the first week of life. In Africa SBAs were associated with higher neonatal mortality for both outcomes, and the same was true for deaths on the first day of life in Asia. Many women in Africa and Asia deliver at home unless a complication occurs, and thus skilled birth attendants may be seeing more women with complications than their unskilled counterparts. In addition there are issues with the definition of a SBA with many attendants in both Africa and Asia not actually having the needed training and equipment to prevent neonatal mortality. Considerable investment is needed in terms of training and health infrastructure to enable these providers to save the youngest lives.

  20. Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; de Miranda, Marina Jorge; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; dos Santos, Patrícia Carlos

    2017-01-01

    Objective Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Design Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. Settings The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Participants Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Main outcome measures Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. Results In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). Conclusions The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. PMID:28838894

  1. Contextual determinants of neonatal mortality using two analysis methods, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanini, Roselaine Ruviaro; Moraes, Anaelena Bragança de; Giugliani, Elsa Regina Justo; Riboldi, João

    2011-02-01

    To analyze neonatal mortality determinants using multilevel logistic regression and classic hierarchical models. Cohort study including 138,407 live births with birth certificates and 1,134 neonatal deaths recorded in 2003, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. The Information System on Live Births and mortality records were linked for gathering information on individual-level exposures. Sociodemographic data and information on the pregnancy, childbirth care and characteristics of the children at birth were collected. The associated factors were estimated and compared by traditional and multilevel logistic regression analysis. The neonatal mortality rate was 8.19 deaths per 1,000 live births. Low birth weight, 1- and 5-minute Apgar score below eight, congenital malformation, pre-term birth and previous fetal loss were associated with neonatal death in the traditional model. Elective cesarean section had a protective effect. Previous fetal loss did not remain significant in the multilevel model, but the inclusion of a contextual variable (poverty rate) showed that 15% of neonatal mortality variation can be explained by varying poverty rates in the microregions. The use of multilevel models showed a small effect of contextual determinants on the neonatal mortality rate. There was found a positive association with the poverty rate in the general model, and the proportion of households with water supply among preterm newborns.

  2. Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, Montserrat; Jarner, Søren Fiig; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

    2014-01-01

    The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  3. A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

    2016-04-01

    Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

  4. Poisson regression analysis of the mortality among a cohort of World War II nuclear industry workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frome, E.L.; Cragle, D.L.; McLain, R.W.

    1990-01-01

    A historical cohort mortality study was conducted among 28,008 white male employees who had worked for at least 1 month in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, during World War II. The workers were employed at two plants that were producing enriched uranium and a research and development laboratory. Vital status was ascertained through 1980 for 98.1% of the cohort members and death certificates were obtained for 96.8% of the 11,671 decedents. A modified version of the traditional standardized mortality ratio (SMR) analysis was used to compare the cause-specific mortality experience of the World War II workers with the U.S. white male population. An SMR and a trend statistic were computed for each cause-of-death category for the 30-year interval from 1950 to 1980. The SMR for all causes was 1.11, and there was a significant upward trend of 0.74% per year. The excess mortality was primarily due to lung cancer and diseases of the respiratory system. Poisson regression methods were used to evaluate the influence of duration of employment, facility of employment, socioeconomic status, birth year, period of follow-up, and radiation exposure on cause-specific mortality. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in a main-effects model were obtained to describe the joint effects of these six factors on cause-specific mortality of the World War II workers. We show that these multivariate regression techniques provide a useful extension of conventional SMR analysis and illustrate their effective use in a large occupational cohort study

  5. An analysis of the determinants of maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buor, Daniel; Bream, Kent

    2004-10-01

    To establish what population characteristics affect the high maternal mortality rate in the sub-Saharan Africa region and to propose possible solutions to reduce this rate. This study is a secondary analysis of existing data sources from the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as direct and indirect sources from UNAIDS, the United Nations, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Macro International, and national statistical offices. Instead of looking at continentwide or individual nation models, it develops a regional model. Sociodemographic population variables are used as independent variables to predict the dependent variable, maternal mortality. Additionally, a new country-specific political stability independent variable is introduced into the model. Data from 28 sub-Saharan African countries are used. Bivariate correlations are used to establish associations among the variables, whereas cross-tabulations, using Kendall's tau-c values, and regression lines are used to establish impacts. In the sub-Saharan Africa region, births attended by skilled health personnel and life expectancy at birth strongly correlate with maternal mortality. Gross national product (GNP) per capita and health expenditure per capita also have strong association with maternal mortality. The availability of skilled delivery personnel, life expectancy, national economic wealth, and health expenditure per capita predict the maternal mortality rate of a country. Based on these findings, it is recommended that structural arrangements be made to train skilled health personnel to take care of maternal health problems. In view of the high cost of training physicians, middle-level health personnel may offer an affordable alternative to handle emergency obstetrical cases to address the shortage of physicians. In addition, the allocation of adequate resources to the health sector could improve maternal mortality. The economic wealth of a country and life expectancy at birth are

  6. Timing of low tidal volume ventilation and intensive care unit mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome. A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needham, Dale M; Yang, Ting; Dinglas, Victor D; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A; Shanholtz, Carl; Sevransky, Jonathan E; Brower, Roy G; Pronovost, Peter J; Colantuoni, Elizabeth

    2015-01-15

    Reducing tidal volume decreases mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, the effect of the timing of low tidal volume ventilation is not well understood. To evaluate the association of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality with initial tidal volume and with tidal volume change over time. Multivariable, time-varying Cox regression analysis of a multisite, prospective study of 482 patients with ARDS with 11,558 twice-daily tidal volume assessments (evaluated in milliliter per kilogram of predicted body weight [PBW]) and daily assessment of other mortality predictors. An increase of 1 ml/kg PBW in initial tidal volume was associated with a 23% increase in ICU mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.44; P = 0.008). Moreover, a 1 ml/kg PBW increase in subsequent tidal volumes compared with the initial tidal volume was associated with a 15% increase in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.29; P = 0.019). Compared with a prototypical patient receiving 8 days with a tidal volume of 6 ml/kg PBW, the absolute increase in ICU mortality (95% CI) of receiving 10 and 8 ml/kg PBW, respectively, across all 8 days was 7.2% (3.0-13.0%) and 2.7% (1.2-4.6%). In scenarios with variation in tidal volume over the 8-day period, mortality was higher when a larger volume was used earlier. Higher tidal volumes shortly after ARDS onset were associated with a greater risk of ICU mortality compared with subsequent tidal volumes. Timely recognition of ARDS and adherence to low tidal volume ventilation is important for reducing mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00300248).

  7. Assessment of drought related mortality in pinyon-juniper and ponderosa pine forests using Forest Inventory and Analysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    John D. Shaw

    2008-01-01

    (Please note, this is an abstract only) Widespread mortality in several forest types is associated with several years of drought in the Southwest. Implementation of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) annual inventory in several states coincided with the onset of elevated mortality rates. Analysis of data collected 2000-2004 reveals the status and...

  8. Then we all fall down: fall mortality by trauma center level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubik, Daniel; Cook, Alan D; Ward, Jeanette G; Chapple, Kristina M; Teperman, Sheldon; Stone, Melvin E; Gross, Brian; Moore, Forrest O

    2017-09-01

    Ground-level falls (GLFs) are the predominant mechanism of injury in US trauma centers and accompany a spectrum of comorbidities, injury severity, and physiologic derangement. Trauma center levels define tiers of capability to treat injured patients. We hypothesized that risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality (O:E) by trauma center level would evaluate the degree to which need for care was met by provision of care. This retrospective cohort study used National Trauma Data Bank files for 2007-2014. Trauma center level was defined as American College of Surgeons (ACS) level I/II, ACS III/IV, State I/II, and State III/IV for within-group homogeneity. Risk-adjusted expected mortality was estimated using hierarchical, multivariable regression techniques. Analysis of 812,053 patients' data revealed the proportion of GLF in the National Trauma Data Bank increased 8.7% (14.1%-22.8%) over the 8 y studied. Mortality was 4.21% overall with a three-fold increase for those aged 60 y and older versus younger than 60 y (4.93% versus 1.46%, P < 0.001). O:E was lowest for ACS III/IV, (0.973, 95% CI: 0.971-0.975) and highest for State III/IV (1.043, 95% CI: 1.041-1.044). Risk-adjusted outcomes can be measured and meaningfully compared among groups of trauma centers. Differential O:E for ACS III/IV and State III/IV centers suggests that factors beyond case mix alone influence outcomes for GLF patients. More work is needed to optimize trauma care for GLF patients across the spectrum of trauma center capability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Gender inequality, health expenditure and maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A secondary data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Chirowa

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: This article provided an analysis of gender inequality, health expenditure and its relationship to maternal mortality. Objective: The objective of this article was to explore gender inequality and its relationship with health expenditure and maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. A unique analysis was used to correlate the Gender Inequality Index (GII, Health Expenditure and Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR. The GII captured inequalities across three dimensions – Reproductive health, Women empowerment and Labour force participation between men and women. The GII is a composite index introduced by the UNDP in 2010 and corrects for the disadavanatges of the other gender indices. Although the GII incorporates MMR in its calculation, it should not be taken as a substitute for, but rather as complementary to, the MMR. Method: An exploratory and descriptive design to a secondary documentary review using quantitative data and qualitative information was used. The article referred to sub-Saharan Africa, but seven countries were purposively selected for an in-depth analysis based on the availability of data. The countries selected were Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique,South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Results: Countries with high gender inequality captured by the gender inequality index were associated with high maternal mortality ratios as compared with countries with lower gender inequality, whilst countries that spend less on health were associated with higher maternal deaths than countries that spend more. Conclusion: A potential relationship exists between gender inequality, health expenditure, and maternal mortality. Gender inequalities are systematic and occur at the macro, societal and household levels.

  10. The effect of health facility delivery on neonatal mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tura Gurmesa

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Though promising progress has been made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goal four through substantial reduction in under-five mortality, the decline in neonatal mortality remains stagnant, mainly in the middle and low-income countries. As an option, health facility delivery is assumed to reduce this problem significantly. However, the existing evidences show contradicting conclusions about this fact, particularly in areas where enabling environments are constraint. Thus, this review was conducted with the aim of determining the pooled effect of health facility delivery on neonatal mortality. Methods The reviewed studies were accessed through electronic web-based search strategy from PUBMED, Cochrane Library and Advanced Google Scholar by using combination key terms. The analysis was done by using STATA-11. I2 test statistic was used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plot, Begg’s test and Egger’s test were used to check for publication bias. Pooled effect size was determined in the form of relative risk in the random-effects model using DerSimonian and Laird's estimator. Results A total of 2,216 studies conducted on the review topic were identified. During screening, 37 studies found to be relevant for data abstraction. From these, only 19 studies fulfilled the preset criteria and included in the analysis. In 10 of the 19 studies included in the analysis, facility delivery had significant association with neonatal mortality; while in 9 studies the association was not significant. Based on the random effects model, the final pooled effect size in the form of relative risk was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.87 for health facility delivery as compared to home delivery. Conclusion Health facility delivery is found to reduce the risk of neonatal mortality by 29% in low and middle income countries. Expansion of health facilities, fulfilling the enabling environments and promoting their utilization during childbirth are

  11. Prostate cancer mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze the mortality trend of prostate cancer in Serbia (excluding the Kosovo and Metohia) from 1991 to 2010. The age-standardized prostate cancer mortality rates (per 100 000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the World Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using the joinpoint regression analysis. Significantly increased trend in prostate cancer mortality was recorded in Serbia continuously from 1991 to 2010 (AAPC = +2.2, 95% CI = 1.6-2.9). Mortality rates for prostate cancer showed a significant upward trend in all men aged 50 and over: AAPC (95% CI) was +1.9% (0.1-3.8) in aged 50-59 years, +1.7% (0.9-2.6) in aged 60-69 years, +2.0% (1.2-2.9) in aged 70-79 years and +3.5% (2.4-4.6) in aged 80 years and over. According to comparability test, prostate cancer mortality trends in majority of age groups were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P > 0.05). The increasing prostate cancer mortality trend implies the need for more effective measures of prevention, screening and early diagnosis, as well as prostate cancer treatment in Serbia. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. [Spatial analysis of neonatal mortality in the state of São Paulo, 2006-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Milena Cristina Silva; Gomes, Camila Moraes Santos; Nascimento, Luiz Fernando Costa

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to identify spatial patterns of distribution of overall, early, and late neonatal mortality rates in São Paulo state. An ecological and exploratory study was carried in micro-regions of São Paulo sate. Mortality rates per 1,000 live births (LB) were calculated using data on overall, early, and late neonatal mortality in São Paulo between 2006 and 2010; these data were obtained from Information System and Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Healthcare System (DATASUS). The global Moran's indices (I) were calculated for rates and thematic maps were built with these rates. Micro-regions with a high priority for intervention were identified by the box map. The software TerraView 4.2.1 was used for spatial analysis. The rates of early and late neonatal mortality were 6.2 per thousand LB and 2.5 per thousand LB, respectively. The global Moran's indexes (I) were I=0.13, I=0.15, and I=0.26 for overall, early, and late neonatal mortality rates, respectively; all global Moran's indices showed p-values <0.05. Thematic maps showed clusters of micro-regions with high rates located in the southwest and east of the state. The results presented in this study allow the implementation of policies by health managers, aiming to reduce neonatal mortality. Copyright © 2014 Associação de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  13. Effect of sodium bicarbonate administration on mortality in patients with lactic acidosis: a retrospective analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Jeong Kim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Lactic acidosis is a common cause of high anion gap metabolic acidosis. Sodium bicarbonate may be considered for an arterial pH <7.15 but paradoxically depresses cardiac performance and exacerbates acidosis by enhancing lactate production. This study aimed to evaluate the cause and mortality rate of lactic acidosis and to investigate the effect of factors, including sodium bicarbonate use, on death. METHODS: We conducted a single center analysis from May 2011 through April 2012. We retrospectively analyzed 103 patients with lactic acidosis among 207 patients with metabolic acidosis. We used SOFA and APACHE II as severity scores to estimate illness severity. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and Cox regression analysis models were used to identify factors that affect mortality. RESULTS: Of the 103 patients with a mean age of 66.1±11.4 years, eighty-three patients (80.6% died from sepsis (61.4%, hepatic failure, cardiogenic shock and other causes. The percentage of sodium bicarbonate administration (p = 0.006, catecholamine use, ventilator care and male gender were higher in the non-survival group than the survival group. The non-survival group had significantly higher initial and follow-up lactic acid levels, lower initial albumin, higher SOFA scores and APACHE II scores than the survival group. The mortality rate was significantly higher in patients who received sodium bicarbonate. Sodium bicarbonate administration (p = 0.016 was associated with higher mortality. Independent factors that affected mortality were SOFA score (Exp (B = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.12-2.63, p = 0.013 and sodium bicarbonate administration (Exp (B = 6.27, 95% CI = 1.10-35.78, p = 0.039. CONCLUSIONS: Lactic acidosis, which has a high mortality rate, should be evaluated in patients with metabolic acidosis. In addition, sodium bicarbonate should be prescribed with caution in the case of lactic acidosis because sodium bicarbonate

  14. Statin Treatment and Mortality in Bacterial Infections – A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkhem-Bergman, Linda; Bergman, Peter; Andersson, Jan; Lindh, Jonatan D.

    2010-01-01

    Background Several studies have reported improved survival in severe bacterial infections among statin treated patients. In addition, statins have been ascribed beneficial anti-inflammatory effects. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of statin-treatment on mortality in patients with bacterial infections, by means of a systematic review and a meta-analysis. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies investigating the association between statin use and mortality in patients with bacterial disease were identified in a systematic literature review and a meta-analysis was performed to calculate the overall odds ratio of mortality in statin users. The literature search identified 947 citations from which 40 relevant studies were extracted. In all, 15 studies comprising 113 910 patients were included in the final analysis. Statin use was associated with a significantly (pstatin treatment was no longer significant, with an OR of 0.79 (95% CI 0.58–1.07). Conclusion/Significance According to the meta-analysis of observational studies presented here, patients on statin therapy seem to have a better outcome in bacterial infections. However, the association did not reach statistical significance after adjustment for apparent publication bias. Thus, there is a great need for randomised controlled trials investigating the possible beneficial effect of statins in bacterial infections. PMID:20502712

  15. Socioeconomic status (SES) and childhood acute myeloid leukemia (AML) mortality risk: Analysis of SEER data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoble, Naomi B; Alderfer, Melissa A; Hossain, Md Jobayer

    2016-10-01

    Socioeconomic status (SES) is a complex construct of multiple indicators, known to impact cancer outcomes, but has not been adequately examined among pediatric AML patients. This study aimed to identify the patterns of co-occurrence of multiple community-level SES indicators and to explore associations between various patterns of these indicators and pediatric AML mortality risk. A nationally representative US sample of 3651 pediatric AML patients, aged 0-19 years at diagnosis was drawn from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database registries created between 1973 and 2012. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, stratified univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. Four SES factors accounting for 87% of the variance in SES indicators were identified: F1) economic/educational disadvantage, less immigration; F2) immigration-related features (foreign-born, language-isolation, crowding), less mobility; F3) housing instability; and, F4) absence of moving. F1 and F3 showed elevated risk of mortality, adjusted hazards ratios (aHR) (95% CI): 1.07(1.02-1.12) and 1.05(1.00-1.10), respectively. Seven SES-defined cluster groups were identified. Cluster 1 (low economic/educational disadvantage, few immigration-related features, and residential-stability) showed the minimum risk of mortality. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3 (high economic/educational disadvantage, high-mobility) and Cluster 6 (moderately-high economic/educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features) exhibited substantially greater risk of mortality, aHR(95% CI)=1.19(1.0-1.4) and 1.23 (1.1-1.5), respectively. Factors of correlated SES-indicators and their pattern-based groups demonstrated differential risks in the pediatric AML mortality indicating the need of special public-health attention in areas with economic-educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All

  16. Volunteering by older adults and risk of mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Morris A; Yeung, Ellen WanHeung; Brown, Stephanie

    2013-06-01

    Organizational volunteering has been touted as an effective strategy for older adults to help themselves while helping others. Extending previous reviews, we carried out a meta-analysis of the relation between organizational volunteering by late-middle-aged and older adults (minimum age = 55 years old) and risk of mortality. We focused on unadjusted effect sizes (i.e., bivariate relations), adjusted effect sizes (i.e., controlling for other variables such as health), and interaction effect sizes (e.g., the joint effect of volunteering and religiosity). For unadjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 47%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38% to 55%. For adjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 24%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 16% to 31%. For interaction effect sizes, we found preliminary support that as public religiosity increases, the inverse relation between volunteering and mortality risk becomes stronger. The discussion identifies several unresolved issues and directions for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Absolute or relative? A comparative analysis of the relationship between poverty and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritzell, Johan; Rehnberg, Johan; Bacchus Hertzman, Jennie; Blomgren, Jenni

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to examine the cross-national and cross-temporal association between poverty and mortality, in particular differentiating the impact of absolute and relative poverty. We employed pooled cross-sectional time series analysis. Our measure of relative poverty was based upon the standard 60% of median income. The measure of absolute, or fixed, poverty was based upon the US poverty threshold. Our analyses were conducted on data for 30 countries between 1978 and 2010, a total of 149 data points. We separately studied infant, child, and adult mortality. Our findings highlight the importance of relative poverty for mortality. Especially for infant and child mortality, we found that our estimates of fixed poverty is close to zero either in the crude models, or when adjusting for gross domestic product. Conversely, the relative poverty estimates increased when adjusting for confounders. Our results seemed robust to a number of sensitivity tests. If we agree that risk of death is important, the public policy implication of our findings is that relative poverty, which has close associations to overall inequality, should be a major concern also among rich countries.

  18. Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Mortality in HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    OʼNeill, Tyler J; Nguemo, Joseph D; Tynan, Anne-Marie; Burchell, Ann N; Antoniou, Tony

    2017-08-01

    As people with HIV live longer, the numbers of colorectal cancer cases are expected to increase. We sought to compare the colorectal cancer incidence and cause-specific mortality among people living with and without HIV. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched 5 electronic databases up to June 28, 2016, for primary studies reporting standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs)/hazard ratios or data sufficient for estimating these summary measures. We performed a random effects pooled analysis to estimate SIR and SMR of colorectal cancer in HIV. Of 8110 articles, we included 27 studies from North America (n = 18), Europe (n = 7), the Pacific region (n = 4), and South America (n = 1). Overall, 1660 cases of colorectal cancer and colon cancer (excluding rectal cancer) occurred among 1,696,070 persons with HIV. In pooled analysis, we found no summary risk of malignancy among those with HIV relative to an uninfected population (SIR 1.00; 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.22; I = 89.2%). Colorectal cancer-specific mortality was higher among people with HIV but did not reach statistical significance (SMR 2.09; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 4.40; I = 85.0%). Rates of colorectal cancer are similar between people with and without HIV. Existing screening guidelines are likely adequate for people with HIV.

  19. [Trends in the mortality of liver cancer in Qidong, China: an analysis of fifty years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jian-guo; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yong-hui; Chen, Yong-sheng; Ding, Lu-lu; Lu, Jian-hua; Zhu, Yuan-rong

    2012-07-01

    .84%, respectively. The age-specific mortality rates by period showed a decreasing trend for those under age of 44. Moreover, age-birth cohort analysis showed a more rapid lowering mortality in the age groups 35-, 30-, 25-, and 15-, that is, those born after 1950's. Liver cancer remains the leading death cause due to cancers in Qidong, with a continuing higher crude mortality rate. Yet the age-standardized mortality rate has presented a declining posture. The liver cancer mortality in young people in Qidong demonstrates a continuously falling trend. The campaign for the control of liver cancer in Qidong has achieved initial success.

  20. Perinatal mortality in twin pregnancy: an analysis of birth weight-specific mortality rates and adjusted mortality rates for birth weight distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, E; González de Agüero, R; de Agustin, J L; Pérez-Hiraldo, M P; Bescos, J L

    1988-01-01

    The objective of this study is to compare the fetal mortality rate (FMR), early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) and perinatal mortality rate (PMR) of twin and single births. It is based on a survey which was carried out in 22 Hospital Centers in Spain in 1980, and covered 1,956 twins born and 110,734 singletons born. The FMR in twins was 36.3/1000 and 8.8/1000 for singletons. The ENMR in twins was 36.1/1000 and 5.7/1000 for singletons. The PMR in twins was 71.1/1000 and 14.4/1000 for singletons. When birthweight-specific PMR in twin and singletons births are compared, there were no differences between the rates for groups 500-999 g and 1000-1499 g. For birthweight groups of 1500-1999 g (124.4 vs 283.8/1000) and 2000-2999 g (29.6 vs 73.2/1000) the rates for twins were about twice lower than those for single births. The PMR for 2500 g and over birthweight was about twice higher in twins than in singletons (12.5 vs 5.5/1000). After we adjusted for birthweight there was a difference in the FMR (12.6 vs 9.8/1000) and the PMR (19.1 vs 16.0/1000, and no difference in the ENMR between twins and singletons (5.9 vs 6.4/1000), indicating that most of the differences among crude rates are due to differences in distribution of birthweight.

  1. Mortality Analysis of Trauma Patients in General Intensive Care Unit of a State Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İskender Kara

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the mortality rate and factors affecting the mortality of trauma patients in general intensive care unit (ICU of a state hospital. Material and Method: Data of trauma patients hospitalized between January 2012 and March 2013 in ICU of Konya Numune Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Demographic characteristics and clinical data of patients were recorded. Patients were divided into two groups as survivors and dead. Mortality rate and factors affectin mortality were examined. Results: A total of 108 trauma patients were included in the study. The mortality rate of overall group was 19.4%. Median age of the patients was 44.5 years and 75.9% of them were males. Median Glasgow Coma Scale of death group was lower (5 (3-8 vs. 15 (13-15, p<0.0001, median APACHE II score was higher (20 (15-26 vs. 10 (8-13, p<0.0001 and median duration of ICU stay was longer (27 (5-62,5 vs. 2 (1-5, p<0.0001 than those in the survival group. The most common etiology of trauma was traffic accidents (47.2% and 52.7% of patients had head trauma. The rate of patients with any fracture was significantly higher in the survival group (66.7% vs. 33.3%, p=0.007. The rate of erythrocyte suspension, fresh frozen plasma, trombocyte suspension and albumin were 38.9%, 27.8%, 0.9% and 8.3%, respectively in all group. The number of patients invasive mechanically ventilated was 27.8% and median length of stay of these patients were 5 (1.75-33.5 days. The rate of operated patients was 42.6%. The rate of tracheostomy, renal replacement therapy, bronchoscopy and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy enforcements were higher in the death group. The advanced age (p=0.016, OR: 1.054; 95% CI: 1.010-1100 and low GCS (p<0.0001, OR: 0.583; 95% CI: 0.456-0.745 were found to be independent risk factors the ICU mortality of trauma patients in logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: We believe that the determination of these risk factors affecting

  2. The analysis of competing events like cause-specific mortality--beware of the Kaplan-Meier method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verduijn, Marion; Grootendorst, Diana C.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Jager, Kitty J.; le Cessie, Saskia

    2011-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier analysis is a popular method used for analysing time-to-event data. In case of competing event analyses such as that of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality, however, the Kaplan-Meier method profoundly overestimates the cumulative mortality probabilities for each of the

  3. Antipsychotic medication and long-term mortality risk in patients with schizophrenia; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, J; van Rooijen, G; Doedens, P; Numminen, E; van Tricht, M; de Haan, L

    2017-10-01

    Patients with schizophrenia have a higher mortality risk than patients suffering from any other psychiatric disorder. Previous research is inconclusive regarding the association of antipsychotic treatment with long-term mortality risk. To this aim, we systematically reviewed the literature and performed a meta-analysis on the relationship between long-term mortality and exposure to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia. The objectives were to (i) determine long-term mortality rates in patients with schizophrenia using any antipsychotic medication; (ii) compare these with mortality rates of patients using no antipsychotics; (iii) explore the relationship between cumulative exposure and mortality; and (iv) assess causes of death. We systematically searched the EMBASE, MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases for studies that reported on mortality and antipsychotic medication and that included adults with schizophrenia using a follow-up design of more than 1 year. A total of 20 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. These studies reported 23,353 deaths during 821,347 patient years in 133,929 unique patients. Mortality rates varied widely per study. Meta-analysis on a subgroup of four studies showed a consistent trend of an increased long-term mortality risk in schizophrenia patients who did not use antipsychotic medication during follow-up. We found a pooled risk ratio of 0.57 (LL:0.46 UL:0.76 p value schizophrenia without antipsychotic medication require further research. Prospective validation studies, uniform measures of antipsychotic exposure and classified causes of death are commendable.

  4. Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave impacts on elderly mortality in Paris: A cluster analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kihal-Talantikite, Wahida; Ragettli, Martina S; Deguen, Séverine

    2017-08-15

    Heat-waves have a substantial public health burden. Understanding spatial heterogeneity at a fine spatial scale in relation to heat and related mortality is central to target interventions towards vulnerable communities. To determine the spatial variability of heat-wave-related mortality risk among elderly in Paris, France at the census block level. We also aimed to assess area-level social and environmental determinants of high mortality risk within Paris. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009 among people aged >65 at the French census block level within Paris. We used two heat wave days' definitions that were compared to non-heat wave days. A Bernoulli cluster analysis method was applied to identify high risk clusters of mortality during heat waves. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the mortality risk. The spatial approach revealed a spatial aggregation of death cases during heat wave days. We found that small scale chronic PM 10 exposure was associated with a 0.02 (95% CI: 0.001; 0.045) increase of the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We also found a positive association with the percentage of foreigners and the percentage of labor force, while the proportion of elderly people living in the neighborhood was negatively associated. We also found that green space density had a protective effect and inversely that the density of constructed feature increased the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We showed that a spatial variation in terms of heat-related vulnerability exists within Paris and that it can be explained by some contextual factors. This study can be useful for designing interventions targeting more vulnerable areas and reduce the burden of heat waves. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. [A Meta analysis on the associations between air pollution and respiratory mortality in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changjing; Huang, Fei; Yang, Zhizhou; Sun, Zhaorui; Huang, Changbao; Liu, Hongmei; Shao, Danbing; Zhang, Wei; Ren, Yi; Tang, Wenjie; Han, Xiaoqin; Nie, Shinan

    2015-08-01

    To analyze the associations between air pollution and adverse health outcomes on respiratory diseases and to estimate the short-term effects of air pollutions [Particulate matter with particle size below 10 microns (PM(10)), PM(10) particulate matter with particle size below 2.5 microns (PM(2.5)), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and ozone (O₃)] on respiratory mortality in China. Data related to the epidemiological studies on the associations between air pollution and adverse health outcomes of respiratory diseases that published from 1989 through 2014 in China, were collected by systematically searching databases of PubMed, SpringerLink, Embase, Medline, CNKI, CBM and VIP in different provinces of China. Short-term effects between (PM(10), PM(2.5), NO₂, SO₂, O₃) and respiratory mortality were analyzed by Meta-analysis method, and estimations were pooled by random or fixed effect models, using the Stata 12.0 software. A total of 157 papers related to the associations between air pollution and adverse health outcomes of respiratory diseases in China were published, which covered 79.4% of all the provinces in China. Results from the Meta-analysis showed that a 10 µg/m³ increase in PM10, PM(2.5), NO₂, SO₂, and O₃was associated with mortality rates as 0.50% (95% CI: 0-0.90%), 0.50% (95% CI: 0.30%-0.70%), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.90%-1.78%), 1.00% (95% CI: 0.40%-1.59%) and 0.10% (95% CI: -1.21%-1.39%) in respiratory tracts, respectively. No publication bias was found among these studies. There seemed positive associations existed between PM(10)/PM(2.5)/NO₂/SO₂and respiratory mortality in China that the relationship called for further attention on air pollution and adverse health outcomes of the respiratory diseases.

  6. Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Shane A; Shelley, Julia M; Stevenson, Christopher

    2017-12-01

    A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01-1.09), business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08), earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08) and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03-1.10) measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z -score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years) only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

  7. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L

    2016-01-01

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (peconometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data.

  8. Association of fine particles with respiratory disease mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Xuhong; Zhou, Liangjia; Tang, Meng; Wang, Bei

    2015-01-01

    Short-time exposure to high levels of fine particles (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter≤2.5 μm; PM2.5) may trigger respiratory disease, but this association has not been determined. The objective of this study was to evaluate and quantify the short-time exposure to fine particles on respiratory disease mortality. Published articles were obtained from electronic databases and a validity assessment was used. The meta-analysis was conducted with the incorporation of good-quality studies. After applying the inclusion criteria, 9 articles were included in the study. The methodological qualities of the published studies were good, and every study achieved a score of 3. Fine particles were significantly associated with an increase in respiratory mortality risk (for every 10 μg/m3 increment, rate difference [RD]=1.32%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95%-1.68%; p=.000). These findings indicate that short-time exposure to fine particles could increase the risk of respiratory disease mortality.

  9. Deprivation and suicide mortality across 424 neighborhoods in Seoul, South Korea: a Bayesian spatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Tae-Ho; Noh, Maengseok; Han, Junhee; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee; Khang, Young-Ho

    2015-12-01

    A neighborhood-level analysis of mortality from suicide would be informative in developing targeted approaches to reducing suicide. This study aims to examine the association of community characteristics with suicide in the 424 neighborhoods of Seoul, South Korea. Neighborhood-level mortality and population data (2005-2011) were obtained to calculate age-standardized suicide rates. Eight community characteristics and their associated deprivation index were employed as determinants of suicide rates. The Bayesian hierarchical model with mixed effects for neighborhoods was used to fit age-standardized suicide rates and other covariates with consideration of spatial correlations. Suicide rates for 424 neighborhoods were between 7.32 and 71.09 per 100,000. Ninety-nine percent of 424 neighborhoods recorded greater suicide rates than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries' average. A stepwise relationship between area deprivation and suicide was found. Neighborhood-level indicators for lack of social support (residents living alone and the divorced or separated) and socioeconomic disadvantages (low educational attainment) were positively associated with suicide mortality after controlling for other covariates. Finding from this study could be used to identify priority areas and to develop community-based programs for preventing suicide in Seoul, South Korea.

  10. Effect of anaesthesia type on postoperative mortality and morbidities: a matched analysis of the NSQIP database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saied, N N; Helwani, M A; Weavind, L M; Shi, Y; Shotwell, M S; Pandharipande, P P

    2017-01-01

    The anaesthetic technique may influence clinical outcomes, but inherent confounding and small effect sizes makes this challenging to study. We hypothesized that regional anaesthesia (RA) is associated with higher survival and fewer postoperative organ dysfunctions when compared with general anaesthesia (GA). We matched surgical procedures and type of anaesthesia using the US National Surgical Quality Improvement database, in which 264,421 received GA and 64,119 received RA. Procedures were matched according to Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) and ASA physical status classification. Our primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality and secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay, and postoperative organ system dysfunction. After matching, multiple regression analysis was used to examine associations between anaesthetic type and outcomes, adjusting for covariates. After matching and adjusting for covariates, type of anaesthesia did not significantly impact 30-day mortality. RA was significantly associated with increased likelihood of early discharge (HR 1.09; Ppatient characteristic confounders, RA was associated with significantly lower odds of several postoperative complications, decreased hospital length of stay, but not mortality when compared with GA. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Analysis of cancer mortality risk among workers of a research uranium metallurgy division in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jejati, H.; Laurier, D.; Tirmarche, M.; Giraud, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This cohort study has been undertaken in response to a suspected cluster of cancers mentioned by workers involved in research activities concerning the metallurgy of uranium. The studied population included all persons having worked between 1950 and 1968 at the Metallurgy Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). Exposures were registered on an individual annual basis. For analysis, they were grouped in three categories: use of chemicals agents (Benzene, beryllium, alcohols, solvents ...), manipulation of radioactive materials (uranium, thorium, fission decay products), and exposure to external radiation. This relatively small cohort included 356 workers followed up to December 1990. Out of observed deaths, 21 were from cancer. Total mortality from cancer was less than expected from national rates (Standardised Mortality Ratio = 0.73). Cancer mortality did not increase with duration of exposure to external radiation or with duration of manipulation of radioactive materials. Risk of cancer was increasing with the number of years of exposure to chemicals. The small size of this cohort limits the conclusion of the observed results. The purpose, despite this lack of power, was to answer a worry of the workers, more than to estimate a clear dose-response relationship linked to a specific cancer site. The effect studied here is ''all cancers'', a distinction of the different sites being uninformative because of the very small number of cases observed. Nevertheless, this study suggests some routes for further research: it highlights the importance of considering concomitant exposures like chemical ones in studies of nuclear workers. (author)

  12. Evaluation of effective factors on low birth weight neonates' mortality using path analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babaee Gh

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study have conducted in order to determine of direct or indirect effective factors on mortality of neonates with low birth weight by path analysis.Methods: In this cohort study 445 paired mothers and their neonates were participated in Tehran city. The data were gathered through an answer sheet contain mother age, gestational age, apgar score, pregnancy induced hypertension (PIH and birth weight. Sampling was convenience and neonates of women were included in this study who were referred to 15 government and private hospitals in Tehran city. Live being status of neonates was determined until 24 hours after delivery.Results: The most changes in mortality rate is related to birth weight and its negative score means that increasing in weight leads to increase chance of live being. Second score is related to apgar sore and its negative score means that increasing in apgar score leads to decrease chance of neonate death. Third score is gestational age and its negative score means that increasing in weight leads to increase chance of live being. The less changes in mortality rate is due to hypertensive disorders in pregnancy.Conclusion: The methodology has been used could be adopted in other investigations to distinguish and measuring effect of predictive factors on the risk of an outcome.

  13. Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality. A Nationwide Analysis in 272 Chinese Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Renjie; Yin, Peng; Meng, Xia; Liu, Cong; Wang, Lijun; Xu, Xiaohui; Ross, Jennifer A; Tse, Lap A; Zhao, Zhuohui; Kan, Haidong; Zhou, Maigeng

    2017-07-01

    Evidence concerning the acute health effects of air pollution caused by fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in developing countries is quite limited. To evaluate short-term associations between PM 2.5 and daily cause-specific mortality in China. A nationwide time-series analysis was performed in 272 representative Chinese cities from 2013 to 2015. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to estimate regional- and national-average associations between PM 2.5 concentrations and daily cause-specific mortality. City-specific effects of PM 2.5 were estimated using the overdispersed generalized additive models after adjusting for time trends, day of the week, and weather conditions. Exposure-response relationship curves and potential effect modifiers were also evaluated. The average of annual mean PM 2.5 concentration in each city was 56 μg/m 3 (minimum, 18 μg/m 3 ; maximum, 127 μg/m 3 ). Each 10-μg/m 3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM 2.5 concentrations was significantly associated with increments in mortality of 0.22% from total nonaccidental causes, 0.27% from cardiovascular diseases, 0.39% from hypertension, 0.30% from coronary heart diseases, 0.23% from stroke, 0.29% from respiratory diseases, and 0.38% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There was a leveling off in the exposure-response curves at high concentrations in most, but not all, regions. The associations were stronger in cities with lower PM 2.5 levels or higher temperatures, and in subpopulations with elder age or less education. This nationwide investigation provided robust evidence of the associations between short-term exposure to PM 2.5 and increased mortality from various cardiopulmonary diseases in China. The magnitude of associations was lower than those reported in Europe and North America.

  14. Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

    2018-01-01

    Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  15. Mortality and Clostridium difficile infection in an Australian setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Brett G; Gardner, Anne; Hiller, Janet E

    2013-10-01

    To quantify the risk of death associated with Clostridium difficile infection, in an Australian tertiary hospital. Two reviews examining Clostridium difficile infection and mortality indicate that Clostridium difficile infection is associated with increased mortality in hospitalized patients. Studies investigating the mortality of Clostridium difficile infection in settings outside of Europe and North America are required, so that the epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infection in these regions can be understood and appropriate prevention strategies made. An observational non-concurrent cohort study design was used. Data from all persons who had (exposed) and a matched sample of persons who did not have Clostridium difficile infection, for the calendar years 2007-2010, were analysed. The risk of dying within 30, 60, 90 and 180 days was compared using the two groups. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and conditional logistic regression models were applied to the data to examine time to death and mortality risk adjusted for comorbidities using the Charlson Comorbidity Index. One hundred and fifty-eight cases of infection were identified. A statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality was identified between exposed and non-exposed groups at 60 and 180 days. In a conditional regression model, mortality in the exposed group was significantly higher at 180 days. In this Australian study, Clostridium difficile infection was associated with increased mortality. In doing so, it highlights the need for nurses to immediately instigate contact precautions for persons suspected of having Clostridium difficile infection and to facilitate a timely faecal collection for testing. Our findings support ongoing surveillance of Clostridium difficile infection and associated prevention and control activities. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Fever Is Associated with Reduced, Hypothermia with Increased Mortality in Septic Patients: A Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumbus, Zoltan; Matics, Robert; Hegyi, Peter; Zsiboras, Csaba; Szabo, Imre; Illes, Anita; Petervari, Erika; Balasko, Marta; Marta, Katalin; Miko, Alexandra; Parniczky, Andrea; Tenk, Judit; Rostas, Ildiko; Solymar, Margit; Garami, Andras

    2017-01-01

    Sepsis is usually accompanied by changes of body temperature (Tb), but whether fever and hypothermia predict mortality equally or differently is not fully clarified. We aimed to find an association between Tb and mortality in septic patients with meta-analysis of clinical trials. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry databases (from inception to February 2016). Human studies reporting Tb and mortality of patients with sepsis were included in the analyses. Average Tb with SEM and mortality rate of septic patient groups were extracted by two authors independently. Forty-two studies reported Tb and mortality ratios in septic patients (n = 10,834). Pearson correlation analysis revealed weak negative linear correlation (R2 = 0.2794) between Tb and mortality. With forest plot analysis, we found a 22.2% (CI, 19.2-25.5) mortality rate in septic patients with fever (Tb > 38.0°C), which was higher, 31.2% (CI, 25.7-37.3), in normothermic patients, and it was the highest, 47.3% (CI, 38.9-55.7), in hypothermic patients (Tb 75%).

  17. Retrospective analysis of mortality and Candida isolates of 75 patients with candidemia: a single hospital experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirano R

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Ryuichi Hirano,1 Yuichi Sakamoto,2 Kumiko Kudo,1 Motoki Ohnishi31Department of Pharmacy, Aomori Prefectural Central Hospital, Aomori, Japan; 2Laboratory Medicine and Blood transfusion, Aomori Prefectural Central Hospital, Aomori, Japan; 3General Medicine, Aomori Prefectural Central Hospital, Aomori, JapanAbstract: The mortality rate for candidemia is approximately 30%–60%. However, prognostic factors in patients with candidemia have not yet been elucidated in detail. The aim of the present study was to analyze prognostic factors for candidemia using the mortality rate and Candida isolates of patients with candidemia. Seventy-five patients with candidemia were analyzed between January 2007 and December 2013. The main outcome of this study was the 30-day mortality rate after the diagnosis of candidemia. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II score was measured in 34 patients (45.3%. Odds ratios (ORs for death due to candidemia were analyzed using a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. Twenty (26.6% patients died within 30 days of being diagnosed with candidemia. Non-survivors had a significantly higher APACHE II score (n=7, mean; 18.9±4.5 than that of survivors (n=27, mean; 14.0±5.0. Advanced age (OR =1.1, 95% confidence interval =1.01–1.23, P=0.04 was a significant risk factor for a high mortality rate, whereas removal of a central venous catheter (OR =0.03, 95% confidence interval =0.002–0.3, P=0.01 was associated with a lower mortality rate. Seventy-six Candida spp. were isolated from blood cultures: Candida albicans 28 (36.8%, Candida parapsilosis 23 (30.2%, Candida guilliermondii 16 (21.0%, Candida glabrata four (5.2%, Candida tropicalis two (2.6%, and Candida spp. three (3.9% that could not be identified. C. parapsilosis was the most frequently isolated species in younger patients (<65 years, whereas C. albicans was the most frequently isolated in elderly patients (≥65 years

  18. Mortality and Case Fatality Due to Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Nationwide Analysis of Epidemiology, Trends and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg

    2014-01-01

    Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a significant public health problem in Brazil and several regions of the world. This study investigated the magnitude, temporal trends and spatial distribution of mortality related to VL in Brazil. Methods We performed a study based on secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil from 2000 to 2011, in which VL was recorded as cause of death. We present epidemiological characteristics, trend analysis of mortality and case fatality rates by joinpoint regression models, and spatial analysis using municipalities as geographical units of analysis. Results In the study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. VL was mentioned in 3,322 (0.03%) deaths. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.15 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and case fatality rate 8.1%. Highest mortality rates were observed in males (0.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), Brazil over the period, with different patterns between regions: increasing mortality rates in the North (Annual Percent Change – APC: 9.4%; 95% confidence interval – CI: 5.3 to 13.6), and Southeast (APC: 8.1%; 95% CI: 2.6 to 13.9); and increasing case fatality rates in the Northeast (APC: 4.0%; 95% CI: 0.8 to 7.4). Spatial analysis identified a major cluster of high mortality encompassing a wide geographic range in North and Northeast Brazil. Conclusions Despite ongoing control strategies, mortality related to VL in Brazil is increasing. Mortality and case fatality vary considerably between regions, and surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in high-risk clusters. Early diagnosis and treatment are fundamental strategies for reducing case fatality of VL in Brazil. PMID:24699517

  19. The relationship between the C-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: a Monte Carlo Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Reeves, Mathew J

    2013-03-01

    Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of 3 factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card.

  20. Meta-analysis of randomized trials of effect of milrinone on mortality in cardiac surgery: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majure, David T; Greco, Teresa; Greco, Massimiliano; Ponschab, Martin; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Zangrillo, Alberto; Landoni, Giovanni

    2013-04-01

    The long-term use of milrinone is associated with increased mortality in chronic heart failure. A recent meta-analysis suggested that it might increase mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The authors conducted an updated meta-analysis of randomized trials in patients undergoing cardiac surgery to determine if milrinone impacted survival. A meta-analysis. Hospitals. One thousand thirty-seven patients from 20 randomized trials. None. Biomed, Central, PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane central register of clinical trials, and conference proceedings were searched for randomized trials that compared milrinone versus placebo or any other control in adult and pediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Authors of trials that did not include mortality data were contacted. Only trials for which mortality data were available were included. Overall analysis showed no difference in mortality between patients receiving milrinone versus control (12/554 [2.2%] in the milrinone group v 10/483 [2.1%] in the control arm; relative risk [RR] = 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-2.43; p = 0.7) or in analysis restricted to adults (11/364 [3%] in the milrinone group v 9/371 [2.4%] in the control arm; RR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.54-2.53; p = 0.7). Sensitivity analyses in trials with a low risk of bias showed a trend toward an increase in mortality with milrinone (8/153 [5.2%] in the milrinone arm v 2/152 [1.3%] in the control arm; RR = 2.71; 95% CI, 0.82-9; p for effect = 0.10). Despite theoretic concerns for increased mortality with intravenous milrinone in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the authors were unable to confirm an adverse effect on survival. However, sensitivity analysis of high-quality trials showed a trend toward increased mortality with milrinone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Dose-response relationship analysis for cancer and circulatory system disease mortality risks among uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drubay, Damien

    2015-01-01

    The relation between lung cancer risk and radon exposure has been clearly established, especially from the studies on uranium miner cohorts. But the association between radon exposure and extrapulmonary cancers and non-cancer diseases remains not well known. Moreover, the health risks associated with the other mining-related ionizing radiation exposures are still under consideration. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the estimation of the radio-induced health risks at low-doses through the analysis of the kidney cancer and Circulatory System Disease (CSD) mortality risks among uranium miners. Kidney cancer mortality risk analyses were performed from the French cohort of uranium miners (n=5086; follow-up period: 1946-2007), the post-55 cohort (n=3,377; follow-up period: 1957-2007) and the German cohort of the Wismut (n=58,986; follow-up period: 1946-2003) which included 24, 11 and 174 deaths from kidney cancer, respectively. The exposures to radon and its short-lived progeny (expressed in Working Level Month WLM), to uranium ore dust (kBqh.m -3 ) and to external gamma rays (mSv) were estimated for each miners and the equivalent kidney dose was calculated. The dose-response relation was refined considering two responses: the instantaneous risk of kidney cancer mortality (corresponding to the classical analysis, Cause specific Hazard Ratio (CSHR) estimated with the Cox model) and its occurrence probability during the followup (Sub-distribution Hazard Ratio (SHR) estimated with the Fine and Gray model). An excess of kidney cancer mortality was observed only in the French cohort (SMR = 1.62 CI95%[1.04; 2.41]). In the Wismut cohort, a decrease of the kidney cancer mortality was observed (0.89 [0.78; 0.99]). For these three cohorts, the occupational radiological exposures (or the equivalent kidney dose) were significantly associated neither with the risk of kidney cancer mortality (e.g. CSHRWismut-radon/100 WLM=1.023 [0.993; 1.053]), nor with its occurrence

  2. An empirical analysis of the importance of controlling for unobserved heterogeneity when estimating the income-mortality gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriaan Kalwij

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Statistical theory predicts that failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity in a Gompertz mortality risk model attenuates the estimated income-mortality gradient toward zero. Objective: I assess the empirical importance of controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in a Gompertz mortality risk model when estimating the income-mortality gradient. The analysis is carried out using individual-level administrative data from the Netherlands over the period 1996-2012. Methods: I estimate a Gompertz mortality risk model in which unobserved heterogeneity has a gamma distribution and left-truncation of life durations is explicitly taken into account. Results: I find that, despite a strong and significant presence of unobserved heterogeneity in both the male and female samples, failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity yields only a small and insignificant attenuation bias in the negative income-mortality gradient. Conclusions: The main finding, a small and insignificant attenuation bias in the negative income-mortality gradient when failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity, is positive news for the many empirical studies, whose estimations of the income-mortality gradient ignore unobserved heterogeneity.

  3. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  4. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  5. Introducing risk adjustment and free health plan choice in employer-based health insurance: Evidence from Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilny, Adam; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R

    2017-12-01

    To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Mandatory pooling as a supplement to risk-adjusted capitation payments in a competitive health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M; van Vliet, R C; van de Ven, W P

    1998-07-01

    Risk-adjusted capitation payments (RACPs) to competing health insurers are an essential element of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. RACPs based on demographic variables only are insufficient, because they leave ample room for cream skimming. However, the implementation of improved RACPs does not appear to be straightforward. A solution might be to supplement imperfect RACPs with a form of mandatory pooling that reduces the incentives for cream skimming. In a previous paper it was concluded that high-risk pooling (HRP), is a promising supplement to RACPs. The purpose of this paper is to compare HRP with two other main variants of mandatory pooling. These variants are called excess-of-loss (EOL) and proportional pooling (PP). Each variant includes ex post compensations to insurers for some members which depend to various degrees on actually incurred costs. Therefore, these pooling variants reduce the incentives for cream skimming which are inherent in imperfect RACPs, but they also reduce the incentives for efficiency and cost containment. As a rough measure of the latter incentives we use the percentage of total costs for which an insurer is at risk. This paper analyzes which of the three main pooling variants yields the greatest reduction of incentives for cream skimming given such a percentage. The results show that HRP is the most effective of the three pooling variants.

  7. Mortality rates in patients with anorexia nervosa and other eating disorders. A meta-analysis of 36 studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcelus, Jon; Mitchell, Alex J; Wales, Jackie; Nielsen, Søren

    2011-07-01

    Morbidity and mortality rates in patients with eating disorders are thought to be high, but exact rates remain to be clarified. To systematically compile and analyze the mortality rates in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), and eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS). A systematic literature search, appraisal, and meta-analysis were conducted of the MEDLINE/PubMed, PsycINFO, and Embase databases and 4 full-text collections (ie, ScienceDirect, Ingenta Select, Ovid, and Wiley-Blackwell Interscience). English-language, peer-reviewed articles published between January 1, 1966, and September 30, 2010, that reported mortality rates in patients with eating disorders. Primary data were extracted as raw numbers or confidence intervals and corrected for years of observation and sample size (ie, person-years of observation). Weighted proportion meta-analysis was used to adjust for study size using the DerSimonian-Laird model to allow for heterogeneity inclusion in the analysis. From 143 potentially relevant articles, we found 36 quantitative studies with sufficient data for extraction. The studies reported outcomes of AN during 166 642 person-years, BN during 32 798 person-years, and EDNOS during 22 644 person-years. The weighted mortality rates (ie, deaths per 1000 person-years) were 5.1 for AN, 1.7 for BN, and 3.3 for EDNOS. The standardized mortality ratios were 5.86 for AN, 1.93 for BN, and 1.92 for EDNOS. One in 5 individuals with AN who died had committed suicide. Individuals with eating disorders have significantly elevated mortality rates, with the highest rates occurring in those with AN. The mortality rates for BN and EDNOS are similar. The study found age at assessment to be a significant predictor of mortality for patients with AN. Further research is needed to identify predictors of mortality in patients with BN and EDNOS.

  8. Weight Gain After Breast Cancer Diagnosis and All-Cause Mortality: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracken, Michael B.; Sanft, Tara B.; Ligibel, Jennifer A.; Harrigan, Maura; Irwin, Melinda L.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Overweight and obesity are associated with breast cancer mortality. However, the relationship between postdiagnosis weight gain and mortality is unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of weight gain after breast cancer diagnosis and breast cancer–specific, all-cause mortality and recurrence outcomes. Methods: Electronic databases identified articles up through December 2014, including: PubMed (1966-present), EMBASE (1974-present), CINAHL (1982-present), and Web of Science. Language and publication status were unrestricted. Cohort studies and clinical trials measuring weight change after diagnosis and all-cause/breast cancer–specific mortality or recurrence were considered. Participants were women age 18 years or older with stage I-IIIC breast cancer. Fixed effects analysis summarized the association between weight gain (≥5.0% body weight) and all-cause mortality; all tests were two-sided. Results: Twelve studies (n = 23 832) were included. Weight gain (≥5.0%) compared with maintenance (breast cancer–specific mortality (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.38, P = .05). Conclusions: Weight gain after diagnosis of breast cancer is associated with higher all-cause mortality rates compared with maintaining body weight. Adverse effects are greater for weight gains of 10.0% or higher. PMID:26424778

  9. The problem of fuzzy cause-specific death rates in mortality context analysis: the case of Panama City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, S; Gans, P

    1993-05-01

    In studies of mortality, small and fluctuating numbers of deaths are problems which are caused by infrequent reporting and small spatial unit reporting. To use Panama City as an example, the paper will introduce a Monte Carlo simulation which allows for the analysis of mortality even with small absolute numbers. In addition, Panama City will be used as an example where good medical care is available in every city district, so that social class differences between the districts have a negligible effect on most cause-specific death rates and infant mortality.

  10. Material consumption and social well-being within the periphery of the world economy: an ecological analysis of maternal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, James

    2008-12-01

    The degree to which social well-being is predicated upon levels of material consumption remains under-examined from a large-N, quantitative perspective. The present study analyzes the factors influencing levels of maternal mortality in 2005 among 92 peripheral countries. We incorporate into regression analysis the ecological footprint, a comprehensive measure of natural resource consumption, and alternative explanatory variables drawn from previous research. Results illustrate ecological footprint consumption has a moderately strong direct influence shaping lower levels of maternal mortality. Path analysis reveals export commodity concentration has a negative effect on level of ecological footprint demand net the strong positive influence of income per capita. This illustrates cross-national trade dependency relations directly influence natural resource consumption opportunities and thereby indirectly contribute to higher maternal mortality levels within the periphery of the world economy. The results confirm material consumption is an important dimension of improvement in maternal mortality.

  11. Infant and Child Mortality in India in the Last Two Decades: A Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Abhishek; Pathak, Praveen Kumar; Chauhan, Rajesh Kumar; Pan, William

    2011-01-01

    Background Studies examining the intricate interplay between poverty, female literacy, child malnutrition, and child mortality are rare in demographic literature. Given the recent focus on Millennium Development Goals 4 (child survival) and 5 (maternal health), we explored whether the geographic regions that were underprivileged in terms of wealth, female literacy, child nutrition, or safe delivery were also grappling with the elevated risk of child mortality; whether there were any spatial outliers; whether these relationships have undergone any significant change over historical time periods. Methodology The present paper attempted to investigate these critical questions using data from household surveys like NFHS 1992–1993, NFHS 1998–1999 and DLHS 2002–2004. For the first time, we employed geo-spatial techniques like Moran's-I, univariate LISA, bivariate LISA, spatial error regression, and spatiotemporal regression to address the research problem. For carrying out the geospatial analysis, we classified India into 76 natural regions based on the agro-climatic scheme proposed by Bhat and Zavier (1999) following the Census of India Study and all estimates were generated for each of the geographic regions. Result/Conclusions This study brings out the stark intra-state and inter-regional disparities in infant and under-five mortality in India over the past two decades. It further reveals, for the first time, that geographic regions that were underprivileged in child nutrition or wealth or female literacy were also likely to be disadvantaged in terms of infant and child survival irrespective of the state to which they belong. While the role of economic status in explaining child malnutrition and child survival has weakened, the effect of mother's education has actually become stronger over time. PMID:22073208

  12. Lung cancer mortality among European rock/slag wool workers: exposure-response analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consonni, D; Boffetta, P; Andersen, A; Chang-Claude, J; Cherrie, J W; Ferro, G; Frentzel-Beyme, R; Hansen, J; Olsen, J; Plato, N; Westerholm, P; Saracci, R

    1998-08-01

    The purpose was to analyze the relationship between semi-quantitative indices of exposure to manmade vitreous fibers and lung cancer mortality among European rock/slag wool (RSW) workers. The study population comprised 9,603 male workers employed in RSW production in seven factories in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Germany, followed up for mortality as of 1990-91. Estimates of past exposure to respirable fibers were used to calculate cumulative exposure with a 15-year lag and maximum annual exposure based on employment history up to 1977. Rate ratios were estimated via multivariate Poisson regression, adjusting for country, age, calendar year, time since first employment, and employment status. A total of 159 lung cancer deaths were included in the analysis of which 97 among workers with more than one year of employment. We found nonstatistically significant trends in lung cancer risk according to cumulative exposure. Relative risks (RR) in the four quartiles were 1.0 (reference), 1.3 (95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.8-2.4), 1.2 (CI = 0.7-2.1), and 1.5 (CI = 0.7-3.0, P test for trend = 0.4). When workers with less than one year of employment were excluded, there was no increased risk; the RRs in the four quartiles were 1.0, 0.9 (CI = 0.4-2.0), 0.8 (CI = 0.3-1.9), and 1.0 (CI = 0.4-2.7). No trend was present according to maximum annual exposure. The results were not consistent among countries. We found a positive association between exposure to respirable fibers and lung cancer mortality. However, the lack of statistical significance, the dependence of the results on inclusion of short-term workers, the lack of consistency among countries, and the possible correlation between exposure to respirable fibers and to other agents reduce the weight of such evidence.

  13. Mortality from cancer and other causes in commercial airline crews: a joint analysis of cohorts from 10 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Gaël P; Auvinen, Anssi; De Stavola, Bianca L; Grajewski, Barbara; Gundestrup, Maryanne; Haldorsen, Tor; Hammar, Niklas; Lagorio, Susanna; Linnersjö, Anette; Pinkerton, Lynne; Pukkala, Eero; Rafnsson, Vilhjálmur; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Storm, Hans H; Strand, Trond-Eirik; Tzonou, Anastasia; Zeeb, Hajo; Blettner, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Commercial airline crew is one of the occupational groups with the highest exposures to ionising radiation. Crew members are also exposed to other physical risk factors and subject to potential disruption of circadian rhythms. This study analyses mortality in a pooled cohort of 93 771 crew members from 10 countries. The cohort was followed for a mean of 21.7 years (2.0 million person-years), during which 5508 deaths occurred. The overall mortality was strongly reduced in male cockpit (SMR 0.56) and female cabin crews (SMR 0.73). The mortality from radiation-related cancers was also reduced in male cockpit crew (SMR 0.73), but not in female or male cabin crews (SMR 1.01 and 1.00, respectively). The mortality from female breast cancer (SMR 1.06), leukaemia and brain cancer was similar to that of the general population. The mortality from malignant melanoma was elevated, and significantly so in male cockpit crew (SMR 1.57). The mortality from cardiovascular diseases was strongly reduced (SMR 0.46). On the other hand, the mortality from aircraft accidents was exceedingly high (SMR 33.9), as was that from AIDS in male cabin crew (SMR 14.0). This large study with highly complete follow-up shows a reduced overall mortality in male cockpit and female cabin crews, an increased mortality of aircraft accidents and an increased mortality in malignant skin melanoma in cockpit crew. Further analysis after longer follow-up is recommended.

  14. Depression and risk of mortality in people with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fleur E P van Dooren

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between depression and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with diabetes by systematically reviewing the literature and carrying out a meta-analysis of relevant longitudinal studies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: PUBMED and PSYCINFO were searched for articles assessing mortality risk associated with depression in diabetes up until August 16, 2012. The pooled hazard ratios were calculated using random-effects models. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria, which were pooled in an overall all-cause mortality estimate, and five in a cardiovascular mortality estimate. After adjustment for demographic variables and micro- and macrovascular complications, depression was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.29-1.66, and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.11-1.73. Heterogeneity across studies was high for all-cause mortality and relatively low for cardiovascular mortality, with an I-squared of respectively 78.6% and 39.6%. Subgroup analyses showed that the association between depression and mortality not significantly change when excluding three articles presenting odds ratios, yet this decreased heterogeneity substantially (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.39-1.61, I-squared = 15.1%. A comparison between type 1 and type 2 diabetes could not be undertaken, as only one study reported on type 1 diabetes specifically. CONCLUSIONS: Depression is associated with an almost 1.5-fold increased risk of mortality in people with diabetes. Research should focus on both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes of death associated with depression, and determine the underlying behavioral and physiological mechanisms that may explain this association.

  15. Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a high plateau area in southwest China: A time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Zan; Guo, Pi; Xie, Fang; Chu, Huifang; Li, Kun; Pu, Jingbo; Pang, Shaojie; Dong, Hongli; Liu, Yahui; Pi, Fuhua; Zhang, Qingying

    2015-09-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator that reflects weather stability and is associated with global climate change and urbanization. Previous studies have explored the effect of DTR on human health in coastal cities with small daily temperature variations, but we have little evidence for high plateau regions where large DTRs usually occur. Using daily mortality data (2007-2013), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess the effect of DTR on daily mortality in Yuxi, a high plateau city in southwest China. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate DTR effects on daily mortality, controlling for daily mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term trends. The cumulative effects of DTR were J-shaped curves for non-accidental, cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular mortality, with a U-shaped curve for respiratory mortality. Risk assessments showed strong monotonic increases in mortality starting at a DTR of approximately 16 °C. The relative risk of non-accidental morality with extreme high DTR at lag 0 and 0-21 days was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.11) and 1.33 (0.94-1.89), respectively. The risk of mortality with extreme high DTR was greater for males and age <75 years than females and age ≥75 years. The effect of DTR on mortality was non-linear, with high DTR associated with increased mortality. A DTR of 16 °C may be a cut-off point for mortality prognosis and has implications for developing intervention strategies to address high DTR exposure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Aboriginal premature mortality within South Australia 1999-2006: a cross-sectional analysis of small area results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDermott Robyn

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper initially describes premature mortality by Aboriginality in South Australia during 1999 to 2006. It then examines how these outcomes vary across area level socio-economic disadvantage and geographic remoteness. Methods The retrospective, cross-sectional analysis uses estimated resident population by sex, age and small areas based on the 2006 Census, and Unit Record mortality data. Premature mortality outcomes are measured using years of life lost (YLL. Subsequent intrastate comparisons are based on indirect sex and age adjusted YLL results. A multivariate model uses area level socio-economic disadvantage rank, geographic remoteness, and an interaction between the two variables to predict premature mortality outcomes. Results Aboriginal people experienced 1.1% of total deaths but 2.2% of YLL and Aboriginal premature mortality rates were 2.65 times greater than the South Australian average. Premature mortality for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people increased significantly as area disadvantage increased. Among Aboriginal people though, a significant main effect for area remoteness was also observed, together with an interaction between disadvantage and remoteness. The synergistic effect shows the social gradient between area disadvantage and premature mortality increased as remoteness increased. Conclusions While confirming the gap in premature mortality rates between Aboriginal South Australians and the rest of the community, the study also found a heterogeneity of outcomes within the Aboriginal community underlie this difference. The results support the existence of relationship between area level socio-economic deprivation, remoteness and premature mortality in the midst of an affluent society. The study concludes that vertically equitable resourcing according to population need is an important response to the stark mortality gap and its exacerbation by area socio-economic position and remoteness.

  17. Occupational radiation exposure and mortality: second analysis of the National Registry for Radiation Workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.; Goodill, A.A.; Haylock, R.G.E.; Vokes, J.; Little, M.P.; Jackson, D.A.; O'Hagan, J.A.; Thomas, J.M.; Kendall, G.M.; Silk, T.J.; Bingham, D.; Berridge, G.L.C.

    1999-01-01

    The National Registry for Radiation Workers (NRRW) is the largest epidemiological study of UK radiation workers. Following the first analysis published in 1992, a second analysis has been conducted using an enlarged cohort of 124 743 workers, updated dosimetry and personal data for some workers, and a longer follow-up. Overall levels of mortality were found to be less than those expected from national rates; the standardised mortality ratio for all causes was 82, increasing to 89 after adjusting for social class. This 'healthy worker effect' was particularly strong for lung cancer and for some smoking-related non-malignant diseases. Analysis of potential radiation effects involved testing for any trend in mortality risk with external dose, after adjusting for likely confounding factors. For leukaemia, excluding chronic lymphatic leukaemia (CLL), the central estimate of excess relative risk (ERR) per Sv was similar to that estimated for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors at low doses (without the incorporation of a dose-rate correction factor); the corresponding 90% confidence limits for this trend were tighter than in the first analysis, ranging from just under four times the risk estimated at low doses from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors to about zero. For the grouping of all malignancies other than leukaemia, the central estimate of the trend in risk with dose was closer to zero than in the first analysis; also, the 90% confidence limits were tighter than before and included zero. Since results for lung cancer and non-malignant smoking-related diseases suggested the possibility of confounding by smoking, an examination was made, as in the first analysis, of all malignancies other than leukaemia and lung cancer. In this instance the central estimate of the ERR per Sv was similar to that from the A-bomb data (without the incorporation of a dose-rate correction factor), with a 90% confidence interval ranging from about four times the A-bomb value to less than

  18. Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shane A. Kavanagh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01–1.09, business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01–1.08, earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01–1.08 and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03–1.10 measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z-score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

  19. Time series analysis of air pollution and mortality: effects by cause, age and socioeconomic status

    OpenAIRE

    Gouveia, N.; Fletcher, T.

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To investigate the association between outdoor air pollution and mortality in São Paulo, Brazil.
DESIGN—Time series study
METHODS—All causes, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality were analysed and the role of age and socioeconomic status in modifying associations between mortality and air pollution were investigated. Models used Poisson regression and included terms for temporal patterns, meteorology, and autocorrelation.
MAIN RESULTS—All causes all ages mortality showed much sm...

  20. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten; Berhe, D. F.; van Boven, J. F. M.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify

  1. Analysis of mortality from suicide in children, adolescents and youth. Argentina, 2005-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bella, Mónica E; Acosta, Laura; Villacé, Belén; López de Neira, María; Enders, Julio; Fernández, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    To analyze mortality from suicide in children, adolescents and youth aged 5 to 24 years by gender, method used, place where the incident occurred and residence (province) in Argentina over the period 2005-2007. Data of Statistical Death Reports were used. Mortality rates from suicide were estimated per 100 000 inhabitants using ICD-10 (X60- X84). The statistical method included categorical data analysis. Total deaths from suicide in the 5 to 24 year old group were 861 in 2005, 897 in 2006, and 815 in 2007. During the period 2005-2007, 6 deaths occurred in children younger than 10 years old. In the 10 to 24 year old group males had higher rates than females (p suicide in males in the group aged 20-24 years old (p suicide in the 15 to 19 year old group. Hanging and use of firearms were the most frequent methods (p suicide in Argentina, whereas Santiago del Estero, Capital Federal and Misiones showed the lowest ones. Suicide in Argentinean adolescents and youth is a public health problem, especially among males. The provinces in the North and South of Argentina had the highest rates in the country.

  2. Cancer mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, H.

    1986-01-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC), have conducted mortality surveillance on a fixed sample, the Life Span Study (LSS), of 82,000 atomic bomb survivors and 27,000 nonexposed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki since 1950. The results of the most recent analysis of the LSS are summarized

  3. Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye Ah; Park, Hyesook

    2012-09-01

    Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

  4. Meta-analysis of self-reported daytime napping and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaokun; Zhang, Qi; Shang, Xiaoming

    2015-05-04

    Whether self-reported daytime napping is an independent predictor of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate self-reported daytime napping and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality by conducting a meta-analysis. A computerized literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library was conducted up to May 2014. Only prospective studies reporting risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality with respect to baseline self-reported daytime napping were included. Seven studies with 98,163 subjects were included. Self-reported daytime napping was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.07-1.24) compared with non-nappers. Risk of all-cause mortality appeared to be more pronounced among persons with nap duration >60 min (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.04-1.27) than persons with nap duration napping is a mild but statistically significant predictor for all-cause mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. However, whether the risk is attributable to excessive sleep duration or napping alone remains controversial. More prospective studies stratified by sleep duration, napping periods, or age are needed.

  5. Unobserved Heterogeneity of Frailty in the Analysis of Socioeconomic Differences in Health and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia

    2016-01-01

    The concepts of unobserved frailty and selection have been extensively analyzed with respect to phenomena like mortality deceleration at old ages and mortality convergence or cross overs between populations (for example American black and white populations, men and women). Despite the long......-time observation of converging mortality risks in differential socioeconomic mortality research, the interest in the connection between frailty, selection, and health and mortality inequalities over a life course approach has increased only recently. This overview of the literature summarizes the main concepts...

  6. Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

    2018-03-01

    Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was <7.5% (sensitivity and specificity 88.99% and 81.4% respectively). Compared with group achieving lactate clearance target, group not achieving lactate clearance target had to increase early mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 13.42; 95%CI 7.19-25.07). In conclusion, the best lactate clearance cut off as anearly mortality predictor in sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

  7. Determinants of infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe: Results of multivariate hazard analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Kembo

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses important issues in infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe. The objective of the paper is to determine the impact of maternal, socioeconomic and sanitation variables on infant and child mortality. Results show that births of order 6+ with a short preceding interval had the highest risk of infant mortality. The infant mortality risk associated with multiple births was 2.08 times higher relative to singleton births (p<0.001. Socioeconomic variables did not have a distinct impact on infant mortality. Determinants of child mortality were different in relative importance from those of infant mortality. This study supports health policy initiatives to stimulate use of family planning methods to increase birth spacing. These and other results are expected to assist policy makers and programme managers in the child health sector to formulate appropriate strategies to improve the situation of children under 5 in Zimbabwe.

  8. Milk Consumption and Mortality from All Causes, Cardiovascular Disease, and Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Susanna C; Crippa, Alessio; Orsini, Nicola; Wolk, Alicja; Michaëlsson, Karl

    2015-09-11

    Results from epidemiological studies of milk consumption and mortality are inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies assessing the association of non-fermented and fermented milk consumption with mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. PubMed was searched until August 2015. A two-stage, random-effects, dose-response meta-analysis was used to combine study-specific results. Heterogeneity among studies was assessed with the I² statistic. During follow-up periods ranging from 4.1 to 25 years, 70,743 deaths occurred among 367,505 participants. The range of non-fermented and fermented milk consumption and the shape of the associations between milk consumption and mortality differed considerably between studies. There was substantial heterogeneity among studies of non-fermented milk consumption in relation to mortality from all causes (12 studies; I² = 94%), cardiovascular disease (five studies; I² = 93%), and cancer (four studies; I² = 75%) as well as among studies of fermented milk consumption and all-cause mortality (seven studies; I² = 88%). Thus, estimating pooled hazard ratios was not appropriate. Heterogeneity among studies was observed in most subgroups defined by sex, country, and study quality. In conclusion, we observed no consistent association between milk consumption and all-cause or cause-specific mortality.

  9. Coffee consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: a dose-response meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crippa, Alessio; Discacciati, Andrea; Larsson, Susanna C; Wolk, Alicja; Orsini, Nicola

    2014-10-15

    Several studies have analyzed the relationship between coffee consumption and mortality, but the shape of the association remains unclear. We conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies to examine the dose-response associations between coffee consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all cancers. Pertinent studies, published between 1966 and 2013, were identified by searching PubMed and by reviewing the reference lists of the selected articles. Prospective studies in which investigators reported relative risks of mortality from all causes, CVD, and all cancers for 3 or more categories of coffee consumption were eligible. Results from individual studies were pooled using a random-effects model. Twenty-one prospective studies, with 121,915 deaths and 997,464 participants, met the inclusion criteria. There was strong evidence of nonlinear associations between coffee consumption and mortality for all causes and CVD (P for nonlinearity Coffee consumption was not associated with cancer mortality. Findings from this meta-analysis indicate that coffee consumption is inversely associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Pre-operative indicators for mortality following hip fracture surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Toby; Pelpola, Kelum; Ball, Martin; Ong, Alice; Myint, Phyo Kyaw

    2014-07-01

    hip fracture is a common and serious condition associated with high mortality. This study aimed to identify pre-operative characteristics which are associated with an increased risk of mortality after hip fracture surgery. systematic search of published and unpublished literature databases, including EMBASE, MEDLINE, AMED, CINAHL, PubMed and the Cochrane Library, was undertaken to identify all clinical studies on pre-operative predictors of mortality after surgery in hip fracture with at least 3-month follow-up. Data pertaining to the study objectives was extracted by two reviewers independently. Where study homogeneity was evidence, a meta-analysis of pooled relative risk and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality against pre-admission characteristics. fifty-three studies including 544,733 participants were included. Thirteen characteristics were identified as possible pre-operative indicators for mortality. Following meta-analysis, the four key characteristics associated with the risk of mortality up to 12 months were abnormal ECG (RR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.45, 2.76), cognitive impairment (RR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.70), age >85 years (RR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.90) and pre-fracture mobility (RR: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.34). Other statistically significant pre-fracture predictors of increased mortality were male gender, being resident in a care institution, intra-capsular fracture type, high ASA grade and high Charlson comorbidity score on admission. this review has identified the characteristics of patients with a high risk of mortality after a hip fracture surgery beyond the peri-operative period who may benefit from comprehensive assessment and appropriate management. CRD42012002107. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Perinatal mortality disparities between public care and private obstetrician-led care: a propensity score analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, N; Tudehope, D; Gibbons, K S; Flenady, V

    2018-01-01

    To examine whether disparities in stillbirth, and neonatal and perinatal mortality rates, between public and private hospitals are the result of differences in population characteristics and/or clinical practices. Retrospective cohort study. A metropolitan tertiary centre encompassing public and private hospitals. Women accessed care from either a private obstetrician or from public models of care - predominantly midwife-led care or care shared between midwives, general practitioners, and obstetricians. A total of 131 436 births during 1998-2013: 69 037 public and 62 399 private. Propensity score matching was used to select equal-sized public and private cohorts with similar characteristics. Logistic regression analysis was then used to explore the impact of public-private differences in the use of assisted reproductive technologies, plurality, major congenital anomalies, birth method, and gestational age. Stillbirth, and neonatal and perinatal mortality rates. After controlling for maternal and pregnancy factors, perinatal mortality rates were higher in the public than in the private cohort (adjusted odds ratio, aOR 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 1.29-1.80; stillbirth aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.26-1.94; neonatal death aOR 1.48, 95% CI 1.15-1.89). These disparities reduced by 15.7, 20.5, and 19.6%, respectively, after adjusting for major congenital anomalies, birth method, and gestational age. Perinatal mortality occurred more often among public than private births, and this disparity was not explained by population differences. Differences in clinical practices seem to be partly responsible. The impact of differences in clinical practices on maternal and neonatal morbidity was not examined. Further research is required. Private obstetrician-led care: more obstetric intervention and earlier births reduce perinatal mortality. Background Babies born in Australian public hospitals tend to die more often than those born in private hospitals. Our aim was to determine

  12. Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

    2016-11-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller

  13. Mortality among immigrants in England and Wales by major causes of death, 1971-2012: A longitudinal analysis of register-based data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Matthew; Kulu, Hill

    2015-12-01

    Recent research has found a migrant mortality advantage among immigrants relative to the UK-born population living in England and Wales. However, while all-cause mortality is useful to show differences in mortality between immigrants and the host population, it can mask variation in mortality patterns from specific causes of death. This study analyses differences in the causes of death among immigrants living in England and Wales. We extend previous research by applying competing-risks survival analysis to study a large-scale longitudinal dataset from 1971 to 2012 to directly compare causes of death. We confirm low all-cause mortality among nearly all immigrants, except immigrants from Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (who have high mortality). In most cases, low all-cause mortality among immigrants is driven by lower mortality from chronic diseases (in nearly all cases by lower cancer mortality and in some cases by lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD)). This low all-cause mortality often coexists with low respiratory disease mortality and among non-western immigrants, coexists with high mortality from infectious diseases; however, these two causes of death contribute little to mortality among immigrants. For men, CVD is the leading cause of death (particularly among South Asians). For women, cancer is the leading cause of death (except among South Asians, for whom CVD is also the leading cause). Differences in CVD mortality over time remain constant between immigrants relative to UK-born, but immigrant cancer patterns shows signs of some convergence to the cancer mortality among the UK-born (though cancer mortality is still low among immigrants by age 80). The study provides the most up-to-date, reliable UK-based analysis of immigrant mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Cholera in Pregnancy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Fetal, Neonatal, and Maternal Mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen-Toan Tran

    Full Text Available Maternal infection with cholera may negatively affect pregnancy outcomes. The objective of this research is to systematically review the literature and determine the risk of fetal, neonatal and maternal death associated with cholera during pregnancy.Medline, Global Health Library, and Cochrane Library databases were searched using the key terms cholera and pregnancy for articles published in any language and at any time before August 2013 to quantitatively summarize estimates of fetal, maternal, and neonatal mortality. 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated for each selected study. Random-effect non-linear logistic regression was used to calculate pooled rates and 95% CIs by time period. Studies from the recent period (1991-2013 were compared with studies from 1969-1990. Relative risk (RR estimates and 95% CIs were obtained by comparing mortality of selected recent studies with published national normative data from the closest year.The meta-analysis included seven studies that together involved 737 pregnant women with cholera from six countries. The pooled fetal death rate for 4 studies during 1991-2013 was 7.9% (95% CIs 5.3-10.4, significantly lower than that of 3 studies from 1969-1990 (31.0%, 95% CIs 25.2-36.8. There was no difference in fetal death rate by trimester. The pooled neonatal death rate for 1991-2013 studies was 0.8% (95% CIs 0.0-1.6, and 6.4% (95% CIs 0.0-20.8 for 1969-1990. The pooled maternal death rate for 1991-2013 studies was 0.2% (95% CIs 0.0-0.7, and 5.0% (95% CIs 0.0-16.0 for 1969-1990. Compared with published national mortality estimates, the RR for fetal death of 5.8 (95% CIs 2.9-11.3 was calculated for Haiti (2013, 1.8 (95% CIs 0.3-10.4 for Senegal (2007, and 2.6 (95% CIs 0.5-14.9 for Peru (1991; there were no significant differences in the RR for neonatal or maternal death.Results are limited by the inconsistencies found across included studies but suggest that maternal cholera is associated with adverse

  15. Decomposing Educational Inequalities in Child Mortality: A Temporal Trend Analysis of Access to Water and Sanitation in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohra, Tasneem; Benmarhnia, Tarik; McKinnon, Britt; Kaufman, Jay S

    2017-01-11

    Previous studies of inequality in health and mortality have largely focused on income-based inequality. Maternal education plays an important role in determining access to water and sanitation, and inequalities in child mortality arising due to differential access, especially in low- and middle-income countries such as Peru. This article aims to explain education-related inequalities in child mortality in Peru using a regression-based decomposition of the concentration index of child mortality. The analysis combines a concentration index created along a cumulative distribution of the Demographic and Health Surveys sample ranked according to maternal education, and decomposition measures the contribution of water and sanitation to educational inequalities in child mortality. We observed a large education-related inequality in child mortality and access to water and sanitation. There is a need for programs and policies in child health to focus on ensuring equity and to consider the educational stratification of the population to target the most disadvantaged segments of the population. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  16. Relationship Between a Sepsis Intervention Bundle and In-Hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Real-World Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya A; Shea, Erica R; Shiboski, Stephen; Sullivan, Mary C; Gonzales, Ralph; Shimabukuro, David

    2017-08-01

    .32-0.92) and increased age (adjusted IRR, 1.13 per 10-year increase in age; CI, 1.03-1.24). The University of California, San Francisco, sepsis bundle was associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital mortality across hospital units after robust control for confounders and risk adjustment. The adjusted NNT provides a reasonable and achievable goal to observe measureable improvements in outcomes for patients diagnosed with SS/SS.

  17. Air Pollution and Deaths among Elderly Residents of São Paulo, Brazil: An Analysis of Mortality Displacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Amine Farias; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert; Ponce de Leon, Antônio C M

    2017-03-01

    Evaluation of short-term mortality displacement is essential to accurately estimate the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on public health. We quantified mortality displacement by estimating single-day lag effects and cumulative effects of air pollutants on mortality using distributed lag models. We performed a daily time series of nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2000 and 2011. Effects of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) were estimated in Poisson generalized additive models. Single-day lag effects of air pollutant exposure were estimated for 0-, 1- and 2-day lags. Distributed lag models with lags of 0-10, 0-20 and 0-30 days were used to assess mortality displacement and potential cumulative exposure effects. PM 10 , NO 2 and CO were significantly associated with nonaccidental and cause-specific deaths in both single-day lag and cumulative lag models. Cumulative effect estimates for 0-10 days were larger than estimates for single-day lags. Cumulative effect estimates for 0-30 days were essentially zero for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths but remained elevated for respiratory and cancer deaths. We found evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths in elderly residents of São Paulo. We did not find evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for respiratory or cancer deaths. Citation: Costa AF, Hoek G, Brunekreef B, Ponce de Leon AC. 2017. Air pollution and deaths among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil: an analysis of mortality displacement. Environ Health Perspect 125:349-354; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP98.

  18. Analysis of postoperative morbidity and mortality following surgery for gastric cancer. Surgeon volume as the most significant prognostic factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Ciesielski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Surgical resection is the only potentially curative modality for gastric cancer and it is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Aim: To determine risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality following major surgery for gastric cancer. Material and methods : Between 1.08.2006 and 30.11.2014 in the Department of Oncological Surgery of Gdynia Oncology Centre 162 patients underwent gastric resection for adenocarcinoma. All procedures were performed by 13 surgeons. Five of them performed at least two gastrectomies per year (n = 106. The remaining 56 resections were done by eight surgeons with annual volume lower than two. Perioperative mortality was defined as every in-hospital death and death within 30 days after surgery. Causes of perioperative deaths were the matter of in-depth analysis. Results: Overall morbidity was 23.5%, including 4.3% rate of proximal anastomosis leak. Mortality rate was 4.3%. Morbidity and mortality were not dependent on: age, gender, body mass index, tumour location, extent of surgery, splenectomy performance, or pTNM stage. The rates of morbidity (50% vs. 21.3% and mortality (16.7% vs. 3.3% were significantly higher in cases of tumour infiltration to adjacent organs (pT4b. Perioperative morbidity and mortality were 37.5% and 8.9% for surgeons performing less than two gastrectomies per year and 16% and 0.9% for surgeons performing more than two resections annually. The differences were statistically significant (p = 0.002, p = 0.003. Conclusions : Annual surgeon case load and adjacent organ infiltration (pT4b were significant risk factors for morbidity and mortality following major surgery for gastric cancer. The most common complications leading to perioperative death were cardiac failure and proximal anastomosis leak.

  19. Effects of economic downturns on child mortality: a global economic analysis, 1981-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watson, Robert A; Watkins, Johnathan; Zeltner, Thomas; Raine, Rosalind; Atun, Rifat

    2017-01-01

    To analyse how economic downturns affect child mortality both globally and among subgroups of countries of variable income levels. Retrospective observational study using economic data from the World Bank's Development Indicators and Global Development Finance (2013 edition). Child mortality data were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Global. 204 countries between 1981 and 2010. Child mortality, controlling for country-specific differences in political, healthcare, cultural, structural, educational and economic factors. 197 countries experienced at least 1 economic downturn between 1981 and 2010, with a mean of 7.97 downturns per country (range 0-21; SD 0.45). At the global level, downturns were associated with significant (p<0.0001) deteriorations in each child mortality measure, in comparison with non-downturn years: neonatal (coefficient: 1.11, 95% CI 0.855 to 1.37), postneonatal (2.00, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.38), child (2.93, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.60) and under 5 years of age (5.44, 95% CI 4.31 to 6.58) mortality rates. Stronger (larger falls in the growth rate of gross domestic product/capita) and longer (lasting 2 years rather than 1) downturns were associated with larger significant deteriorations (p<0.001). During economic downturns, countries in the poorest quartile experienced ∼1½ times greater deterioration in neonatal mortality, compared with their own baseline; a 3-fold deterioration in postneonatal mortality; a 9-fold deterioration in child mortality and a 3-fold deterioration in under-5 mortality, than countries in the wealthiest quartile (p<0.0005). For 1-5 years after downturns ended, each mortality measure continued to display significant deteriorations (p<0.0001). Economic downturns occur frequently and are associated with significant deteriorations in child mortality, with worse declines in lower income countries.

  20. Urban sprawl, obesity, and cancer mortality in the United States: cross-sectional analysis and methodological challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrigan, David; Tatalovich, Zaria; Pickle, Linda W; Ewing, Reid; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel

    2014-01-06

    Urban sprawl has the potential to influence cancer mortality via direct and indirect effects on obesity, access to health services, physical activity, transportation choices and other correlates of sprawl and urbanization. This paper presents a cross-sectional analysis of associations between urban sprawl and cancer mortality in urban and suburban counties of the United States. This ecological analysis was designed to examine whether urban sprawl is associated with total and obesity-related cancer mortality and to what extent these associations differed in different regions of the US. A major focus of our analyses was to adequately account for spatial heterogeneity in mortality. Therefore, we fit a series of regression models, stratified by gender, successively testing for the presence of spatial heterogeneity. Our resulting models included county level variables related to race, smoking, obesity, access to health services, insurance status, socioeconomic position, and broad geographic region as well as a measure of urban sprawl and several interactions. Our most complex models also included random effects to account for any county-level spatial autocorrelation that remained unexplained by these variables. Total cancer mortality rates were higher in less sprawling areas and contrary to our initial hypothesis; this was also true of obesity related cancers in six of seven U.S. regions (census divisions) where there were statistically significant associations between the sprawl index and mortality. We also found significant interactions (p urban sprawl for total and obesity related cancer mortality in both sexes. Thus, the association between urban sprawl and cancer mortality differs in different regions of the US. Despite higher levels of obesity in more sprawling counties in the US, mortality from obesity related cancer was not greater in such counties. Identification of disparities in cancer mortality within and between geographic regions is an ongoing public

  1. Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Woolf, Anthony D; Englund, Martin

    2017-02-02

    Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

  2. The effect of high temperature on cause-specific mortality: A multi-county analysis in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ban, Jie; Xu, Dandan; He, Mike Z; Sun, Qinghua; Chen, Chen; Wang, Wentao; Zhu, Pengfei; Li, Tiantian

    2017-09-01

    Although existing studies have linked high temperature to mortality in a small number of regions, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between high temperature exposure and cause-specific mortality of multiple regions in China. Our study focused on the use of time series analysis to quantify the association between high temperature and different cause-specific mortalities for susceptible populations for 43 counties in China. Two-stage analyses adopting a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and a meta-analysis allowed us to obtain county-specific estimates and national-scale pooled estimates of the nonlinear temperature-mortality relationship. We also considered different populations stratified by age and sex, causes of death, absolute and relative temperature patterns, and potential confounding from air pollutants. All of the observed cause-specific mortalities are significantly associated with higher temperature. The estimated effects of high temperature on mortality varied by spatial distribution and temperature patterns. Compared with the 90th percentile temperature, the overall relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile temperature for non-accidental mortality is 1.105 (95%CI: 1.089, 1.122), for circulatory disease is 1.107 (95%CI: 1.081, 1.133), for respiratory disease is 1.095 (95%CI: 1.050, 1.142), for coronary heart disease is 1.073 (95%CI: 1.047, 1.099), for acute myocardial infarction is 1.072 (95%CI: 1.042, 1.104), and for stroke is 1.095 (95%CI: 1.052, 1.138). Based on our findings, we believe that heat-related health effect in China is a significant issue that requires more attention and allocation of existing resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Unemployment, public-sector health care expenditure and HIV mortality: An analysis of 74 countries, 1981-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruthappu, Mahiben; Da Zhou, Charlie; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Atun, Rifat

    2015-06-01

    The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment and reduced public-sector expenditure on health care (PSEH). We determined the association between unemployment, PSEH and HIV mortality. Data were obtained from the World Bank and the World Health Organisation (1981-2009). Multivariate regression analysis was implemented, controlling for country-specific demographics and infrastructure. Time-lag analyses and robustness-checks were performed. Data were available for 74 countries (unemployment analysis) and 75 countries (PSEH analysis), equating to 2.19 billion and 2.22 billion people, respectively, as of 2009. A 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in HIV mortality (men: 0.1861, 95% CI: 0.0977 to 0.2744, P = 0.0000, women: 0.0383, 95% CI: 0.0108 to 0.0657, P = 0.0064). A 1% increase in PSEH was associated with a significant decrease in HIV mortality (men: -0.5015, 95% CI: -0.7432 to -0.2598, P = 0.0001; women: -0.1562, 95% CI: -0.2404 to -0.0720, P = 0.0003). Time-lag analysis showed that significant changes in HIV mortality continued for up to 5 years following variations in both unemployment and PSEH. Unemployment increases were associated with significant HIV mortality increases. PSEH increases were associated with reduced HIV mortality. The facilitation of access-to-care for the unemployed and policy interventions which aim to protect PSEH could contribute to improved HIV outcomes.

  4. Unemployment, public–sector health care expenditure and HIV mortality: An analysis of 74 countries, 1981–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahiben Maruthappu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment and reduced public–sector expenditure on health care (PSEH. We determined the association between unemployment, PSEH and HIV mortality. Methods: Data were obtained from the World Bank and the World Health Organisation (1981–2009. Multivariate regression analysis was implemented, controlling for country–specific demographics and infrastructure. Time–lag analyses and robustness–checks were performed. Findings: Data were available for 74 countries (unemployment analysis and 75 countries (PSEH analysis, equating to 2.19 billion and 2.22 billion people, respectively, as of 2009. A 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in HIV mortality (men: 0.1861, 95% CI: 0.0977 to 0.2744, P<0.0001, women: 0.0383, 95% CI: 0.0108 to 0.0657, P=0.0064. A 1% increase in PSEH was associated with a significant decrease in HIV mortality (men: –0.5015, 95% CI: –0.7432 to –0.2598, P=0.0001; women: –0.1562, 95% CI: –0.2404 to –0.0720, P=0.0003. Time–lag analysis showed that significant changes in HIV mortality continued for up to 5 years following variations in both unemployment and PSEH. Interpretation: Unemployment increases were associated with significant HIV mortality increases. PSEH increases were associated with reduced HIV mortality. The facilitation of access–to–care for the unemployed and policy interventions which aim to protect PSEH could contribute to improved HIV outcomes.

  5. A continuum of premature death. Meta-analysis of competing mortality in the psychosocially vulnerable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeleman, J

    Background Suicide may be an extreme expression of liability to death of any type. If true, suicide risk factors should also increase other mortality, and, given exposure, excess risk should be higher for suicide than for other mortality. Methods Of 304 publications identified in Index Medicus

  6. Mortality analysis in hip fracture patients: implications for design of future outcome trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, N B; Kehlet, H

    2006-01-01

    Patients with hip fractures are usually frail and elderly with a 30-day mortality in excess of 10% in European series. Perioperative morbidity is often multifactorial in nature, and unimodal interventions will not necessarily decrease mortality. The purpose of this prospective study was to analys...

  7. Association between anxiety and mortality in patients with coronary artery disease : A meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Celano, Christopher M.; Millstein, Rachel A.; Bedoya, C. Andres; Healy, Brian C.; Roest, Annelieke M.; Huffman, Jeff C.

    2015-01-01

    Background Depression and anxiety are common in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Although depression clearly has been associated with mortality in this population, the relationship between anxiety and mortality is less clear. Accordingly, we performed a series ofmeta-analyses to (1)

  8. Timing of mortality in pediatric trauma patients: A National Trauma Data Bank analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Cory; Zagory, Jessica A; Fenlon, Michael; Park, Caron; Lane, Christianne J; Meeker, Daniella; Burd, Randall S; Ford, Henri R; Upperman, Jeffrey S; Jensen, Aaron R

    2018-02-01

    The classic "trimodal" distribution of death has been described in adult patients, but the timing of mortality in injured children is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to define the temporal distribution of mortality in pediatric trauma patients. A retrospective cohort of patients with mortality from the National Trauma Data Bank (2007-2014) was analyzed. Categorical comparison of 'dead on arrival', 'death in the emergency department', and early (≤24h) or late (>24h) inpatient death was performed. Secondary analyses included mortality by pediatric age, predictors of early mortality, and late complication rates. Children (N=5463 deaths) had earlier temporal distribution of death compared to adults (n=104,225 deaths), with 51% of children dead on arrival or in ED compared to 44% of adults (p<0.001). For patients surviving ED resuscitation, children and adolescents had a shorter median time to death than adults (1.2 d and 0.8 days versus 1.6 days, p<0.001). Older age, penetrating mechanism, bradycardia, hypotension, tube thoracostomy, and thoracotomy were associated with early mortality in children. Injured children have higher incidence of early mortality compared to adults. This suggests that injury prevention efforts and strategies for improving early resuscitation have potential to improve mortality after pediatric injury. Level III: Retrospective cohort study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, ppandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, ppandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

  10. Analysis of mortality trends by specific ethnic groups and age groups in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Siri, Zailan

    2014-07-01

    The number of people surviving until old age has been increasing worldwide. Reduction in fertility and mortality have resulted in increasing survival of populations to later life. This study examines the mortality trends among the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia, namely; the Malays, Chinese and Indians for four important age groups (adolescents, adults, middle age and elderly) for both gender. Since the data on mortality rates in Malaysia is only available in age groups such as 1-5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and so on, hence some distribution or interpolation method was essential to expand it to the individual ages. In the study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used to expand the mortality rates from the age groups to the individual ages. It was found that decreasing trend in all age groups and ethnic groups. Female mortality is significantly lower than male mortality, and the difference may be increasing. Also the mortality rates for females are different than that for males in all ethnic groups, and the difference is generally increasing until it reaches its peak at the oldest age category. Due to the decreasing trend of mortality rates, the government needs to plan for health program to support more elderly people in the coming years.

  11. Anemia and mortality in heart failure patients - A systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenveld, Hessel F.; Januzzi, James L.; Damman, Kevin; van Wijngaarden, Jan; Hillege, Hans L.; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; van der Meer, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to assess the effect of anemia on mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF). Background Anemia is frequently observed in patients with CHF, and evidence suggests that anemia might be associated with an increased mortality. Methods A systematic literature search in

  12. Time-series analysis of air pollution and cause-specific mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zmirou, D; Schwartz, J; Saez, M; Zanobetti, A; Wojtyniak, B; Touloumi, G; Spix, C; de Leon, AP; Le Moullec, Y; Bacharova, L; Schouten, J; Ponka, A; Katsouyanni, K

    Ten large European cities provided data on daily air pollution as well as mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. We used Poisson autoregressive models that controlled for trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorologic influences to assess the short-term effects of air

  13. Evaluating the disparity of female breast cancer mortality among racial groups - a spatiotemporal analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacobson Holly

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The literature suggests that the distribution of female breast cancer mortality demonstrates spatial concentration. There remains a lack of studies on how the mortality burden may impact racial groups across space and over time. The present study evaluated the geographic variations in breast cancer mortality in Texas females according to three predominant racial groups (non-Hispanic White, Black, and Hispanic females over a twelve-year period. It sought to clarify whether the spatiotemporal trend might place an uneven burden on particular racial groups, and whether the excess trend has persisted into the current decade. Methods The Spatial Scan Statistic was employed to examine the geographic excess of breast cancer mortality by race in Texas counties between 1990 and 2001. The statistic was conducted with a scan window of a maximum of 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. The next scan was conducted with a purely spatial option to verify whether the excess mortality persisted further. Spatial queries were performed to locate the regions of excess mortality affecting multiple racial groups. Results The first scan identified 4 regions with breast cancer mortality excess in both non-Hispanic White and Hispanic female populations. The most likely excess mortality with a relative risk of 1.12 (p = 0.001 occurred between 1990 and 1996 for non-Hispanic Whites, including 42 Texas counties along Gulf Coast and Central Texas. For Hispanics, West Texas with a relative risk of 1.18 was the most probable region of excess mortality (p = 0.001. Results of the second scan were identical to the first. This suggested that the excess mortality might not persist to the present decade. Spatial queries found that 3 counties in Southeast and 9 counties in Central Texas had excess mortality involving multiple racial groups. Conclusion Spatiotemporal variations in breast cancer mortality affected racial

  14. What about the mothers? An analysis of maternal mortality and morbidity in perinatal health surveillance systems in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouvier-Colle, M.-H.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Gissler, M.; Novak-Antolic, Z.; Vutuc, C.; Szamotulska, K.; Zeitlin, J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To assess capacity to develop routine monitoring of maternal health in the European Union using indicators of maternal mortality and severe morbidity. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine statistical systems compiled by the EURO-PERISTAT project and comparison with data from

  15. The Effect of Adding Comorbidities to Current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central-Line-Associated Bloodstream Infection Risk-Adjustment Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Sarah S; Leekha, Surbhi; Magder, Laurence S; Pineles, Lisa; Anderson, Deverick J; Trick, William E; Woeltje, Keith F; Kaye, Keith S; Stafford, Kristen; Thom, Kerri; Lowe, Timothy J; Harris, Anthony D

    2017-09-01

    BACKGROUND Risk adjustment is needed to fairly compare central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates between hospitals. Until 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) methodology adjusted CLABSI rates only by type of intensive care unit (ICU). The 2017 CDC models also adjust for hospital size and medical school affiliation. We hypothesized that risk adjustment would be improved by including patient demographics and comorbidities from electronically available hospital discharge codes. METHODS Using a cohort design across 22 hospitals, we analyzed data from ICU patients admitted between January 2012 and December 2013. Demographics and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) discharge codes were obtained for each patient, and CLABSIs were identified by trained infection preventionists. Models adjusting only for ICU type and for ICU type plus patient case mix were built and compared using discrimination and standardized infection ratio (SIR). Hospitals were ranked by SIR for each model to examine and compare the changes in rank. RESULTS Overall, 85,849 ICU patients were analyzed and 162 (0.2%) developed CLABSI. The significant variables added to the ICU model were coagulopathy, paralysis, renal failure, malnutrition, and age. The C statistics were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) for the ICU-type model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) for the ICU-type plus patient case-mix model. When the hospitals were ranked by adjusted SIRs, 10 hospitals (45%) changed rank when comorbidity was added to the ICU-type model. CONCLUSIONS Our risk-adjustment model for CLABSI using electronically available comorbidities demonstrated better discrimination than did the CDC model. The CDC should strongly consider comorbidity-based risk adjustment to more accurately compare CLABSI rates across hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1019-1024.

  16. Effect of rehabilitation on mortality of patients with Guillain-Barre Syndrome: a propensity-matched analysis using nationwide database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inokuchi, H; Yasunaga, H; Nakahara, Y; Horiguchi, H; Ogata, N; Fujitani, J; Matsuda, S; Fushimi, K; Haga, N

    2014-08-01

    Rehabilitation for patients with Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) is recommended as it improves the outcome of neurological deficits. Few studies focused on the effect of rehabilitation on mortality of the patients. To investigate the effect of rehabilitation on hospital mortality of patients with GBS using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) nationwide administrative claims database. A retrospective observational cohort study. Hospitals adopting the Japanese DPC system. Patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of GBS between July 2007 and October 2011. Data analyzed included sex, age, Barthel index at admission, use of ventilation, immune therapy, and rehabilitation during hospitalization, comorbidity, hospital volume, type of hospital, and in-hospital death. One-to-one propensity score-matching was used to compare hospital mortality rates within 30- and 90-days after admission in rehabilitation and non-rehabilitation groups. The adjusted odds ratios of rehabilitation to hospital mortality were also estimated. A total of 3835 patients were identified and analyzed. Patients with advancing age, lower Barthel index at admission, comorbidities, ventilation, or immune therapy were more likely to receive rehabilitation during hospitalization. Propensity-matched analysis of 926 pairs showed that the rehabilitation group had lower hospital mortality rates within both 30- and 90-days than the non-rehabilitation group. The adjusted odds ratios of rehabilitation to hospital mortality within 30- and 90-days were 0.14 and 0.23, respectively. After matching patients' background, rehabilitation was associated with lower hospital mortality of patients with GBS. Rehabilitation treatment is essential for patients with GBS to improve their survival.

  17. Income Inequality, Economic Growth and Stroke Mortality in Brazil: Longitudinal and Regional Analysis 2002-2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Vincens

    Full Text Available Stroke accounts for more than 10% of all deaths globally and most of it occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC. Income inequality and gross domestic product (GDP per capita has been associated to stroke mortality in developed countries. In LMIC, GDP per capita is considered to be a more relevant health determinant than income inequality. This study aims to investigate if income inequality is associated to stroke mortality in Brazil at large, but also on regional and state levels, and whether GDP per capita modulates the impact of this association.Stroke mortality rates, Gini index and GDP per capita data were pooled for the 2002 to 2009 period from public available databases. Random effects models were fitted, controlling for GDP per capita and other covariates.Income inequality was independently associated to stroke mortality rates, even after controlling for GDP per capita and other covariates. GDP per capita reduced only partially the impact of income inequality on stroke mortality. A decrease in 10 points in the Gini index was associated with 18% decrease in the stroke mortality rate in Brazil.Income inequality was independently associated to stroke mortality in Brazil.

  18. Income Inequality, Economic Growth and Stroke Mortality in Brazil: Longitudinal and Regional Analysis 2002-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincens, Natalia; Stafström, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Stroke accounts for more than 10% of all deaths globally and most of it occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Income inequality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has been associated to stroke mortality in developed countries. In LMIC, GDP per capita is considered to be a more relevant health determinant than income inequality. This study aims to investigate if income inequality is associated to stroke mortality in Brazil at large, but also on regional and state levels, and whether GDP per capita modulates the impact of this association. Stroke mortality rates, Gini index and GDP per capita data were pooled for the 2002 to 2009 period from public available databases. Random effects models were fitted, controlling for GDP per capita and other covariates. Income inequality was independently associated to stroke mortality rates, even after controlling for GDP per capita and other covariates. GDP per capita reduced only partially the impact of income inequality on stroke mortality. A decrease in 10 points in the Gini index was associated with 18% decrease in the stroke mortality rate in Brazil. Income inequality was independently associated to stroke mortality in Brazil.

  19. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  20. Air pollution and mortality in the Canary Islands: a time-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballester Ferran

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The island factor of the cities of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, along with their proximity to Africa and their meteorology, create a particular setting that influences the air quality of these cities and provides researchers an opportunity to analyze the acute effects of air-pollutants on daily mortality. Methods From 2000 to 2004, the relationship between daily changes in PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, and ozone levels and daily total mortality and mortality due to respiratory and heart diseases were assessed using Generalized Additive Poisson models controlled for potential confounders. The lag effect (up to five days as well as the concurrent and previous day averages and distributed lag models were all estimated. Single and two pollutant models were also constructed. Results Daily levels of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 were found to be associated with an increase in respiratory mortality in Santa Cruz de Tenerife and with increased heart disease mortality in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, thus indicating an association between daily ozone levels and mortality from heart diseases. The effects spread over five successive days. SO2 was the only air pollutant significantly related with total mortality (lag 0. Conclusions There is a short-term association between current exposure levels to air pollution and mortality (total as well as that due specifically to heart and respiratory diseases in both cities. Risk coefficients were higher for respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, showing a delayed effect over several days.

  1. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, H.; Geleijnse, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Background
    Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify

  2. ANALYSIS OF PREVALENCE, HOSPITALIZATION RATE AND MORTALITY LEVELS RELATED TO GASTROINTESTINAL DISORDERS IN THE MOSCOW REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Gurov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale: According to prognosis made by World Health Organization experts, by mid-21st century gastrointestinal disorders will be among the leaders, partially due to lifestyle of a modern man (stress, unhealthy diet, lack of physical exercise, unhealthy habits, environmental pollution, genetically modified and low quality foods.Aim: To provide informational support of activities aimed at improvement of organization of medical care to patients with gastrointestinal disorders and at further development of specialized gastroenterological care to the population of the Moscow Region, its better availability and higher efficacy and quality.Materials and methods: We calculated and analyzed gastrointestinal morbidity in 2014 (according to referrals among the main age categories (children, adolescents, adults of the population of the Moscow Region, as well as hospitalization rates and in-hospital mortality. The information was taken from the Federal Statistical Surveillance report forms # 12 and # 14.Results: In 2014, the highest prevalence of gastrointestinal disorders was registered in adolescents, being by 42.7% higher than that in adults and by 11.7% higher than that in children. The leading causes of referrals in all age categories were gastritis and duodenitis, as well as gall bladder and bile tract disorders. The structure of morbidity was characterized by a high proportion of pancreatic disorders, stomach and duodenal ulcers in adults. The rate of hospitalizations due to gastrointestinal disorders was 17.8 cases per 1000 patients, being 17.4‰ in adults and 19.8‰ in children and adolescents. The main reasons for hospitalization in adults were diseases of pancreas (23.9% of all hospitalization due to gastrointestinal disorders, gall bladder and bile tract disorders (16.3%. In children and adolescents, the main reasons for hospitalizations were intestinal disorders (36.4%, gastritis and duodenitis (17.9%. In-hospital mortality from

  3. Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, M A

    1987-02-01

    The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.

  4. The inpatient economic and mortality impact of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2005 to 2009: analysis of the US nationwide inpatient sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Alita; Otgonsuren, Munkhzul; Venkatesan, Chapy; Afendy, Mariam; Erario, Madeline; Younossi, Zobair M

    2013-09-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important complication of cirrhosis. Our aim was to assess the inpatient economic and mortality of HCC in the USA METHODS: Five cycles of Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) conducted from 2005 to 2009 were used. Demographics, inpatient mortality, severity of illness, payer type, length of stay (LoS) and charges were available. Changes and associated factors related to inpatient HCC were assessed using simple linear regression. Odds ratios and 95% CIs for hospital mortality were analysed using log-linked regression model. To estimate the sampling variances for complex survey data, we used Taylor series approach. SAS(®) v.9.3 was used for statistical analysis. From 2005 to 2009, 32,697,993 inpatient cases were reported to NIS. During these 5 years, primary diagnosis of HCC increased from 4401 (2005), 4170 (2006), 5065 (2007), 6540 (2008) to 6364 (2009). HCC as any diagnosis increased from 68 per 100,000 discharges (2005) to 99 per 100,000 (2009). However, inpatient mortality associated with HCC decreased from 12% (2005) to 10% (2009) (P < 0.046) and LoS remained stable. However, median inflation-adjusted charges at the time of discharge increased from $29,466 per case (2005) to $31,656 per case (2009). Total national HCC charges rose from $1.0 billion (2005) to $2.0 billion (2009). In multivariate analysis, hospital characteristic was independently associated with decreasing in-hospital mortality (all P < 0.05). Liver transplantation for HCC was the main contributor to high inpatient charges. Longer LoS and other procedures also contributed to higher inpatient charges. There is an increase in the number of inpatient cases of HCC. Although inpatient mortality is decreasing and the LoS is stable, the inpatient charges associated with HCC continue to increase. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. A meta-analysis of prospective studies of coffee consumption and mortality for all causes, cancers and cardiovascular diseases.

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    Malerba, Stefano; Turati, Federica; Galeone, Carlotta; Pelucchi, Claudio; Verga, Federica; La Vecchia, Carlo; Tavani, Alessandra

    2013-07-01

    Several prospective studies considered the relation between coffee consumption and mortality. Most studies, however, were underpowered to detect an association, since they included relatively few deaths. To obtain quantitative overall estimates, we combined all published data from prospective studies on the relation of coffee with mortality for all causes, all cancers, cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary/ischemic heart disease (CHD/IHD) and stroke. A bibliography search, updated to January 2013, was carried out in PubMed and Embase to identify prospective observational studies providing quantitative estimates on mortality from all causes, cancer, CVD, CHD/IHD or stroke in relation to coffee consumption. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to estimate overall relative risks (RR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) using random-effects models. The pooled RRs of all cause mortality for the study-specific highest versus low (≤1 cup/day) coffee drinking categories were 0.88 (95 % CI 0.84-0.93) based on all the 23 studies, and 0.87 (95 % CI 0.82-0.93) for the 19 smoking adjusting studies. The combined RRs for CVD mortality were 0.89 (95 % CI 0.77-1.02, 17 smoking adjusting studies) for the highest versus low drinking and 0.98 (95 % CI 0.95-1.00, 16 studies) for the increment of 1 cup/day. Compared with low drinking, the RRs for the highest consumption of coffee were 0.95 (95 % CI 0.78-1.15, 12 smoking adjusting studies) for CHD/IHD, 0.95 (95 % CI 0.70-1.29, 6 studies) for stroke, and 1.03 (95 % CI 0.97-1.10, 10 studies) for all cancers. This meta-analysis provides quantitative evidence that coffee intake is inversely related to all cause and, probably, CVD mortality.

  6. Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study

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    Robinson, Emily J; Power, Geraldine S; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2016-01-01

    Background Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. Objective To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods—weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)—and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. Methods We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Results Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. Conclusions IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during

  7. Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily J; Smith, Gary B; Power, Geraldine S; Harrison, David A; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2016-11-01

    Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods-weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)-and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during weekday daytimes. Organisational or care differences at

  8. Mortality Analysis of Patients with Paraquat Poisoning Treated at Two University Hospitals in Shiraz, Iran

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    Fazel Goudarzi

    2014-12-01

    Conlcusion: PQ poisoning is associated with high mortality requiring an immediate assessment of patients and prediction of prognosis. Renal and hepatic failure in addition to respiratory distress can be the strongest risk factors for poor prognosis in acute PQ poisoning.

  9. Meta-analysis : High-dosage vitamin E supplementation may increase all-cause mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miller, ER; Pastor-Barriuso, R; Dalal, D; Riemersma, RA; Appel, LJ; Guallar, E

    2005-01-01

    Background: Experimental models and observational studies suggest that vitamin E supplementation may prevent cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, several trials of high-dosage vitamin E supplementation showed non-statistically significant increases in total mortality. Purpose: To perform a

  10. Meta-analysis Reveals that Hydraulic Traits Explain Cross-Species Patterns of Drought-Induced Tree Mortality across the Globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, W.

    2016-12-01

    Drought-induced tree mortality has been observed globally and is expected to increase under climate change scenarios, with large potential consequences for the terrestrial carbon sink. Predicting mortality across species is crucial for assessing the effects of climate extremes on forest community biodiversity, composition, and carbon sequestration. However, the physiological traits associated with elevated risk of mortality in diverse ecosystems remain unknown, though these could greatly improve understanding and prediction of tree mortality in forests. We performed a meta-analysis on species' mortality rates across 475 species from 33 studies around the globe to assess which traits determine a species' mortality risk. We found that species-specific mortality anomalies from community mortality rate in a given drought were associated with plant hydraulic traits. Across all species, mortality was best predicted by a low hydraulic safety margin - the difference between typical minimum xylem water potential and that causing xylem dysfunction - and xylem vulnerability to embolism. Angiosperms and gymnosperms experienced roughly equal mortality risk. Our results provide broad support that hydraulic traits capture key mechanisms determining tree death and highlight that physiological traits can improve vegetation models' prediction of tree mortality during climate extremes. We conclude with thoughts about a revised framework for future tree mortality research.

  11. Infant Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... After hours (404) 639-2888 Contact Media Infant Mortality Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This ... differences in rates among population groups. About Infant Mortality Infant mortality is the death of an infant ...

  12. Effects of economic downturns on child mortality: a global economic analysis, 1981–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watson, Robert A; Watkins, Johnathan; Zeltner, Thomas; Raine, Rosalind; Atun, Rifat

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To analyse how economic downturns affect child mortality both globally and among subgroups of countries of variable income levels. Design Retrospective observational study using economic data from the World Bank's Development Indicators and Global Development Finance (2013 edition). Child mortality data were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Setting Global. Participants 204 countries between 1981 and 2010. Main outcome measures Child mortality, controlling for country-specific differences in political, healthcare, cultural, structural, educational and economic factors. Results 197 countries experienced at least 1 economic downturn between 1981 and 2010, with a mean of 7.97 downturns per country (range 0–21; SD 0.45). At the global level, downturns were associated with significant (p<0.0001) deteriorations in each child mortality measure, in comparison with non-downturn years: neonatal (coefficient: 1.11, 95% CI 0.855 to 1.37), postneonatal (2.00, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.38), child (2.93, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.60) and under 5 years of age (5.44, 95% CI 4.31 to 6.58) mortality rates. Stronger (larger falls in the growth rate of gross domestic product/capita) and longer (lasting 2 years rather than 1) downturns were associated with larger significant deteriorations (p<0.001). During economic downturns, countries in the poorest quartile experienced ∼1½ times greater deterioration in neonatal mortality, compared with their own baseline; a 3-fold deterioration in postneonatal mortality; a 9-fold deterioration in child mortality and a 3-fold deterioration in under-5 mortality, than countries in the wealthiest quartile (p<0.0005). For 1–5 years after downturns ended, each mortality measure continued to display significant deteriorations (p<0.0001). Conclusions Economic downturns occur frequently and are associated with significant deteriorations in child mortality, with worse declines in lower income countries. PMID:28589010

  13. Transfusion-related mortality after primary hip arthroplasty - an analysis of mechanisms and confounders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jans, O; Kehlet, H; Johansson, P I

    2012-01-01

    Background and Objectives Bleeding and postoperative anaemia after total hip arthroplasty (THA) may trigger transfusion of red blood cells (RBC). However, large observational studies have reported associations between RBC transfusion and increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. As major...... bleeding or severe postoperative anaemia is intrinsically linked with RBC transfusion, direct causality between transfusion and adverse outcomes remains unclear. This study aimed to identify possible relations between RBC transfusion, severe bleeding or anaemia and mortality in all patients who died...

  14. Mortality studies in unskilled and semi-skilled workers in Denmark. A comparative analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, E; Jeune, B

    1982-01-01

    Results from two Danish studies on mortality among male unskilled and semi-skilled workers are compared. The first study is based on union data, the second study on census data. Apparently conflicting results are found to be identical after making adjustment for differences in the study populations...... and standard populations. The male unskilled and semi-skilled workers have an excess mortality in the younger age groups which decreases with increasing age....

  15. Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

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    Grasiela Piuvezam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background:Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country.Objective:To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010.Methods:This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA.Results:There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males.Conclusion:The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions.

  16. Deep sternal wound infection after coronary artery bypass surgery: management and risk factor analysis for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumun, Gunduz; Erdolu, Burak; Toktas, Faruk; Eris, Cuneyt; Ay, Derih; Turk, Tamer; As, Ahmet Kagan

    2014-08-01

    Deep sternal wound infection is a life-threatening complication after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors leading to mortality, and to explore wound management techniques on deep sternal wound infection after coronary artery bypass surgery. Between 2008 and 2013, 58 patients with deep sternal wound infection were analyzed. Risk factors for mortality and morbidity including age, gender, body mass index, smoking status, chronic renal failure, hypertension, diabetes, and treatment choice were investigated. In this study, 19 patients (32.7%) were treated by primary surgical closure (PSC), and 39 patients (67.3%) were treated by delayed surgical closure following a vacuum-assisted closure system (VAC). Preoperative patient characteristics were similar between the groups. Fourteen patients (24.1%) died in the postoperative first month. The mortality rate and mean duration of hospitalization in the PSC group was higher than in the VAC group (P = .026, P = .034). Significant risk factors for mortality were additional operation, diabetes mellitus, and a high level of EuroSCORE. Delayed surgical closure following VAC therapy may be associated with shorter hospitalization and lower mortality in patients with deep sternal wound infection. Additional operation, diabetes mellitus, and a high level of EuroSCORE were associated with mortality.

  17. Red blood cell transfusion and mortality in trauma patients: risk-stratified analysis of an observational study.

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    Pablo Perel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Haemorrhage is a common cause of death in trauma patients. Although transfusions are extensively used in the care of bleeding trauma patients, there is uncertainty about the balance of risks and benefits and how this balance depends on the baseline risk of death. Our objective was to evaluate the association of red blood cell (RBC transfusion with mortality according to the predicted risk of death.A secondary analysis of the CRASH-2 trial (which originally evaluated the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality in trauma patients was conducted. The trial included 20,127 trauma patients with significant bleeding from 274 hospitals in 40 countries. We evaluated the association of RBC transfusion with mortality in four strata of predicted risk of death: 50%. For this analysis the exposure considered was RBC transfusion, and the main outcome was death from all causes at 28 days. A total of 10,227 patients (50.8% received at least one transfusion. We found strong evidence that the association of transfusion with all-cause mortality varied according to the predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction 50% predicted risk of death (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.47-0.74, p<0.0001. Transfusion was associated with an increase in fatal and non-fatal vascular events (OR 2.58, 95% CI 2.05-3.24, p<0.0001. The risk associated with RBC transfusion was significantly increased for all the predicted risk of death categories, but the relative increase was higher for those with the lowest (<6% predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction <0.0001. As this was an observational study, the results could have been affected by different types of confounding. In addition, we could not consider haemoglobin in our analysis. In sensitivity analyses, excluding patients who died early; conducting propensity score analysis adjusting by use of platelets, fresh frozen plasma, and cryoprecipitate; and adjusting for country produced results that were similar.The association of transfusion

  18. Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

    2016-06-22

    For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

  19. Spatiotemporal analysis for the effect of ambient particulate matter on cause-specific respiratory mortality in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuying; Guo, Yuming; Li, Guoxing; Zhang, Yajuan; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan; Chen, Liangfu

    2016-06-01

    This study explored the association between particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) and the cause-specific respiratory mortality. We used the ordinary kriging method to estimate the spatial characteristics of ambient PM10 at 1-km × 1-km resolution across Beijing during 2008-2009 and subsequently fit the exposure-response relationship between the estimated PM10 and the mortality due to total respiratory disease, chronic lower respiratory disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia at the street or township area levels using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). We also examined the effects of age, gender, and season in the stratified analysis. The effects of ambient PM10 on the cause-specific respiratory mortality were the strongest at lag0-5 except for pneumonia, and an inter-quantile range increase in PM10 was associated with an 8.04 % (95 % CI 4.00, 12.63) increase in mortality for total respiratory disease, a 6.63 % (95 % CI 1.65, 11.86) increase for chronic lower respiratory disease, and a 5.68 % (95 % CI 0.54, 11.09) increase for COPD, respectively. Higher risks due to the PM10 exposure were observed for females and elderly individuals. Seasonal stratification analysis showed that the effects of PM10 on mortality due to pneumonia were stronger during spring and autumn. While for COPD, the effect of PM10 in winter was statistically significant (15.54 %, 95 % CI 5.64, 26.35) and the greatest among the seasons. The GAMM model evaluated stronger associations between concentration of PM10. There were significant associations between PM10 and mortality due to respiratory disease at the street or township area levels. The GAMM model using high-resolution PM10 could better capture the association between PM10 and respiratory mortality. Gender, age, and season also acted as effect modifiers for the relationship between PM10 and respiratory mortality.

  20. Association of Drug Effects on Serum Parathyroid Hormone, Phosphorus, and Calcium Levels With Mortality in CKD: A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Suetonia C; Teixeira-Pinto, Armando; Saglimbene, Valeria; Craig, Jonathan C; Macaskill, Petra; Tonelli, Marcello; de Berardis, Giorgia; Ruospo, Marinella; Strippoli, Giovanni F M

    2015-12-01

    Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH), phosphorus, and calcium levels are surrogate outcomes that are central to the evaluation of drug treatments in chronic kidney disease (CKD). This systematic review evaluates the evidence for the correlation between drug effects on biochemical (PTH, phosphorus, and calcium) and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality end points in adults with CKD. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Adults with CKD. Randomized trials reporting drug effects on biochemical and mortality end points. Drug interventions with effects on serum PTH, phosphorus, and calcium levels, including vitamin D compounds, phosphate binders, cinacalcet, bisphosphonates, and calcitonin. Correlation between drug effects on biochemical and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. 28 studies (6,999 participants) reported both biochemical and mortality outcomes and were eligible for analysis. Associations between drug effects on surrogate biochemical end points and corresponding effects on mortality were weak and imprecise. All correlation coefficients were less than 0.70, and 95% credible intervals were generally wide and overlapped with zero, consistent with the possibility of no association. The exception was an inverse correlation between drug effects on serum PTH levels and all-cause mortality, which was nominally significant (-0.64; 95% credible interval, -0.85 to -0.15), but the strength of this association was very imprecise. Risk of bias within available trials was generally high, further reducing confidence in the summary correlations. Findings were robust to adjustment for age, baseline serum PTH level, allocation concealment, CKD stage, and drug class. Low power in analyses and combining evidence from many different drug comparisons with incomplete data across studies. Drug effects on serum PTH, phosphorus, and calcium levels are weakly and imprecisely correlated with all-cause and cardiovascular death in the setting of CKD. Risks of mortality (patient

  1. The contribution of spatial analysis to understanding HIV/TB mortality in children: a structural equation modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eustasius Musenge

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Africa accounts for more than a sixth of the global population of people infected with HIV and TB, ranking her highest in HIV/TB co-infection worldwide. Remote areas often bear the greatest burden of morbidity and mortality, yet there are spatial differences within rural settings. Objectives: The primary aim was to investigate HIV/TB mortality determinants and their spatial distribution in the rural Agincourt sub-district for children aged 1–5 years in 2004. Our secondary aim was to model how the associated factors were interrelated as either underlying or proximate factors of child mortality using pathway analysis based on a Mosley-Chen conceptual framework. Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis based on cross-sectional data collected in 2004 from the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeast South Africa. Child HIV/TB death was the outcome measure derived from physician assessed verbal autopsy. Modelling used multiple logit regression models with and without spatial household random effects. Structural equation models were used in modelling the complex relationships between multiple exposures and the outcome (child HIV/TB mortality as relayed on a conceptual framework. Results: Fifty-four of 6,692 children aged 1–5 years died of HIV/TB, from a total of 5,084 households. Maternal death had the greatest effect on child HIV/TB mortality (adjusted odds ratio=4.00; 95% confidence interval=1.01–15.80. A protective effect was found in households with better socio-economic status and when the child was older. Spatial models disclosed that the areas which experienced the greatest child HIV/TB mortality were those without any health facility. Conclusion: Low socio-economic status and maternal deaths impacted indirectly and directly on child mortality, respectively. These factors are major concerns locally and should be used in formulating interventions to reduce child mortality. Spatial prediction maps can guide policy

  2. Ambient carbon monoxide and cardiovascular mortality: a nationwide time-series analysis in 272 cities in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Cong; Yin, Peng; Chen, Renjie; Meng, Xia; Wang, Lijun; Niu, Yue; Lin, Zhijing; Liu, Yunning; Liu, Jiangmei; Qi, Jinlei; You, Jinling; Kan, Haidong; Zhou, Maigeng

    2018-01-01

    Evidence of the acute health effects of ambient carbon monoxide air pollution in developing countries is scarce and mixed. We aimed to evaluate short-term associations between carbon monoxide and daily cardiovascular disease mortality in China. We did a nationwide time-series analysis in 272 major cities in China from January, 2013, to December, 2015. We extracted daily cardiovascular disease mortality data from China's Disease Surveillance Points system. Data on daily carbon monoxide concentrations for each city were obtained from the National Urban Air Quality Real-time Publishing Platform. City-specific associations between carbon monoxide concentrations and daily mortality from cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke were estimated with over-dispersed generalised linear models. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to obtain national and regional average associations. Exposure-response association curves and potential effect modifiers were evaluated. Two-pollutant models were fit to evaluate the robustness of the effects of carbon monoxide on cardiovascular mortality. The average annual mean carbon monoxide concentration in these cities from 2013 to 2015 was 1·20 mg/m 3 , ranging from 0·43 mg/m 3 to 2·45 mg/m 3 . For a 1 mg/m 3 increase in average carbon monoxide concentrations on the present day and previous day (lag 0-1), we observed significant increments in mortality of 1·12% (95% posterior interval [PI] 0·42-1·83) from cardiovascular disease, 1·75% (0·85-2·66) from coronary heart disease, and 0·88% (0·07-1·69) from stroke. These associations did not vary substantially by city, region, and demographic characteristics (age, sex, and level of education), and the associations for cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease were robust to the adjustment of criteria co-pollutants. We did not find a threshold below which carbon monoxide exposure had no effect on cardiovascular disease mortality. This analysis is, to our

  3. Red Cell Distribution Width and Mortality in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Meta-Analysis on Prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahan, Lauro L; Ramos, John Daniel A; Cunanan, Elleen L; Tiongson, Marc Denver A; Punzalan, Felix Eduardo R

    2018-06-01

    Red cell distribution width (RDW), a routine component of the complete blood count (CBC), measures variation in the size of circulating erythrocytes. It has been associated with several clinical outcomes in cardiovascular disease. We sought to strengthen the association between RDW and mortality in patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) by pooling together data from available studies. Studies that fulfilled the following were identified for analysis: 1) observational; 2) included patients admitted for ACS; 3) reported data on all-cause or cardiovascular (CV) mortality in association with a low or high RDW; and 4) used logistic regression analysis to control for confounders. Using MEDLINE, Clinical Key, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases, a search for eligible studies was conducted until January 9, 2017. The quality of each study was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Our primary outcome of interest was all-cause or CV mortality. We also investigated the impact of RDW on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) for the studies that reported these outcomes. Review Manager (RevMan) 5.3 was utilized to perform Mantel-Haenzel analysis of random effects and compute for relative risk. We identified 13 trials involving 10,410 patients, showing that in ACS, a low RDW is associated with a statistically significant lower all-cause or CV mortality (RR 0.35, (95% CI 0.30 to 0.40), P < 0.00001, I 2 = 53%), a finding that was consistent both in the short- and long-term. A low RDW is also associated with lower risk for MACEs after an ACS (RR 0.56, (95% CI 0.51 to 0.61), P < 0.00001, I 2 = 91%). A low RDW during an ACS is associated with lower all-cause or CV mortality and lower risk of subsequent MACEs, providing us with a convenient and inexpensive risk stratification tool in ACS patients.

  4. Daytime napping and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Guochao; Wang, Yi; Tao, TieHong; Ying, Jun; Zhao, Yong

    2015-07-01

    The association between daytime napping and mortality remains controversial. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine the associations between daytime napping and the risks of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer. PubMed and Embase databases were searched through 19 September 2014. Prospective cohort studies that provided risk estimates of daytime napping and mortality were eligible for our meta-analysis. Two investigators independently performed study screening and data extraction. A random-effects model was used to estimate the combined effect size. Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify potential effect modifiers. Twelve studies, involving 130,068 subjects, 49,791 nappers, and 19,059 deaths, were included. Our meta-analysis showed that daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of death from all causes [n = 9 studies; hazard ratio (HR), 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-1.31; I(2) = 42.5%]. No significant associations between daytime napping and the risks of death from CVD (n = 6 studies; HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.96-1.50; I(2) = 75.0%) and cancer (n = 4 studies; HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99-1.15; I(2) = 8.9%) were found. There were no significant differences in risks of all-cause and CVD mortality between subgroups stratified by the prevalence of napping, follow-up duration, outcome assessment, age, and sex. Daytime napping is a predictor of increased all-cause mortality but not of CVD and cancer mortality. However, our findings should be treated with caution because of limited numbers of included studies and potential biases. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Early mortality after neonatal surgery: analysis of risk factors in an optimized health care system for the surgical newborn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dora Catré

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Anesthetic and operative interventions in neonates remain hazardous procedures, given the vulnerability of the patients in this pediatric population. The aim was to determine the preoperative and intraoperative factors associated with 30-day post-operative mortality and describe mortality outcomes following neonatal surgery under general anesthesia in our center. METHODS: Infants less than 28 days of age who underwent general anesthesia for surgery during an 11-year period (2000 - 2010 in our tertiary care pediatric center were retrospectively identified using the pediatric intensive care unit database. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent preoperative and intraoperative factors associated with 30-day post-operative mortality. RESULTS: Of the 437 infants in the study (median gestational age at birth 37 weeks, median birth weight 2,760 grams, 28 (6.4% patients died before hospital discharge. Of these, 22 patients died within the first post-operative month. Logistic regression analysis showed increased odds of 30-day post-operative mortality among patients who presented American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA score 3 or above (odds ratio 19.268; 95%CI 2.523 - 147.132 and surgery for necrotizing enterocolitis/gastrointestinal perforation (OR 5.291; 95%CI 1.962 - 14.266, compared to those who did not. CONCLUSION: The overall in-hospital mortality of 6.4% is within the prevalence reported for developed countries. Establishing ASA score 3 or above and necrotizing enterocolitis/gastrointestinal perforation as independent risk factors for early mortality in neonatal surgery may help clinicians to more adequately manage this high risk population.

  6. Mortality of colorectal cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Shih-Yung; Huang, Jing-Yang; Jian, Zhi-Hong; Ho, Chien-Chang; Lung, Chia-Chi; Liaw, Yung-Po

    2012-12-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer death in developed countries among men (after lung cancer) and the third most common among women. This study thus examines the long-term trends of CRC mortality in Taiwan. CRC cases were collective between patients aged 30 years or older and younger than 85 years from the Taiwan death registries during 1971-2010. Standard descriptive techniques such as age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), aural percent change, and age-period-cohort analyses were used. The increase of percentage change by each age group in men was higher than in women. The ASMR of CRC increased 2-fold for men and almost 1.5-fold for women during the periods 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. For age-period-cohort analysis, the estimated mortality rate increased steadily with age in both sexes, and plateaued at 175.29 per 100,000 people for men and 128.14 per 100,000 for women in the 80- to 84-year-old group. Period effects were weak in both sexes. Cohort effects were strong. Between 30 and 59 years of age, the sex ratio showed that the female CRC mortality rate was higher than that of their male counterparts. Conversely, the mortality risk of CRC in men was higher than that in women when they were between 60 and 84 years old. The current findings showed a consistent increase in mortality from CRC over the years. Changes in the patient sex ratio indicated an important etiological role of sex hormones, especially in women aged 60 years or younger.

  7. Tidal volume and mortality in mechanically ventilated children: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jager, Pauline; Burgerhof, Johannes G M; van Heerde, Marc; Albers, Marcel J I J; Markhorst, Dick G; Kneyber, Martin C J

    2014-12-01

    To determine whether tidal volume is associated with mortality in critically ill, mechanically ventilated children. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases from inception until July 2013 and bibliographies of included studies without language restrictions. Randomized clinical trials and observational studies reporting mortality in mechanically ventilated PICU patients. Two authors independently selected studies and extracted data on study methodology, quality, and patient outcomes. Meta-analyses were performed using the Mantel-Haenszel random-effects model. Heterogeneity was quantified using I. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Score for cohort studies. Out of 142 citations, seven studies met the inclusion criteria, and additional two articles were identified from references of the found articles. One was excluded. These eight studies included 1,756 patients. Mortality rates ranged from 13% to 42%. There was no association between tidal volume and mortality when tidal volume was dichotomized at 7, 8, 10, or 12 mL/kg. Comparing patients ventilated with tidal volume less than 7 mL/kg and greater than 10 mL/kg or greater than 12 mL/kg and tidal volume less than 8 mL/kg and greater than 10 mL/kg or greater than 12 mL/kg also showed no association between tidal volume and mortality. Limiting the analysis to patients with acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome did not change these results. Heterogeneity was observed in all pooled analyses. A relationship between tidal volume and mortality in mechanically ventilated children could not be identified, irrespective of the severity of disease. The significant heterogeneity observed in the pooled analyses necessitates future studies in well-defined patient populations to understand the effects of tidal volume on patient outcome.

  8. Socioeconomic inequality in neonatal mortality in countries of low and middle income: a multicountry analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinnon, Britt; Harper, Sam; Kaufman, Jay S; Bergevin, Yves

    2014-03-01

    Neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) in countries of low and middle income have been only slowly decreasing; coverage of essential maternal and newborn health services needs to increase, particularly for disadvantaged populations. Our aim was to produce comparable estimates of changes in socioeconomic inequalities in NMR in the past two decades across these countries. We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for countries in which a survey was done in 2008 or later and one about 10 years previously. We measured absolute inequalities with the slope index of inequality and relative inequalities with the relative index of inequality. We used an asset-based wealth index and maternal education as measures of socioeconomic position and summarised inequality estimates for all included countries with random-effects meta-analysis. 24 low-income and middle-income countries were eligible for inclusion. In most countries, absolute and relative wealth-related and educational inequalities in NMR decreased between survey 1 and survey 2. In five countries (Cameroon, Nigeria, Malawi, Mozambique, and Uganda), the difference in NMR between the top and bottom of the wealth distribution was reduced by more than two neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths per year. By contrast, wealth-related inequality increased by more than 1·5 neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths per year in Ethiopia and Cambodia. Patterns of change in absolute and relative educational inequalities in NMR were similar to those of wealth-related NMR inequalities, although the size of educational inequalities tended to be slightly larger. Socioeconomic inequality in NMR seems to have decreased in the past two decades in most countries of low and middle income. However, a substantial survival advantage remains for babies born into wealthier households with a high educational level, which should be considered in global efforts to further reduce NMR. Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Copyright © 2014 Mc

  9. Epidemiology of perforated peptic ulcer: Age- and gender-adjusted analysis of incidence and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Glomsaker, Tom; Søreide, Kjetil

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the epidemiological trends in incidence and mortality of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) in a well-defined Norwegian population. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based, single-center, consecutive cohort study of all patients diagnosed with benign perforated peptic ulcer. Included were both gastric and duodenal ulcer patients admitted to Stavanger University Hospital between January 2001 and December 2010. Ulcers with a malignant neoplasia diagnosis, verified by histology after biopsy or resection, were excluded. Patients were identified from the hospitals administrative electronic database using pertinent ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes (K25.1, K25.2, K25.5, K25.6, K26.1, K26.2, K26.5, K26.6). Additional searches using appropriate codes for relevant laparoscopic and open surgical procedures (e.g., JDA 60, JDA 61, JDH 70 and JDH 71) were performed to enable a complete identification of all patients. Patient demographics, presentation patterns and clinical data were retrieved from hospital records and surgical notes. Crude and adjusted incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using national population demographics data. RESULTS: In the study period, a total of 172 patients with PPU were identified. The adjusted incidence rate for the overall 10-year period was 6.5 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 5.6-7.6) and the adjusted mortality rate for the overall 10-year period was 1.1 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 0.7-1.6). A non-significant decline in adjusted incidence rate from 9.7 to 5.6 occurred during the decade. The standardized mortality ratio for the whole study period was 5.7 (95%CI: 3.9-8.2), while the total 30-d mortality was 16.3%. No difference in incidence or mortality was found between genders. However, for patients ≥ 60 years, the incidence increased over 10-fold, and mortality more than 50-fold, compared to younger ages. The admission rates outside office hours were high with almost two out of three (63%) admissions seen at evening

  10. [Analysis of the impact of mortality due to suicides in Mexico, 2000-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávila Cervantes, Claudio Alberto; Ochoa Torres, María del Pilar; Casique Rodríguez, Irene

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the burden of disease due to suicide in Mexico using years of life lost (YLL) between 2000 and 2012 by sex, age group (for those under 85 years of age) and jurisdiction. Vital statistics on mortality and population estimates were used to calculate standardized mortality rates and years of life lost due to suicide. Between 2000 and 2012 a sustained increase in the suicide mortality rate was observed in Mexico. The age group with the highest rate was 85 years of age or older for men, and 15-19 years of age for women. The highest impact in life expectancy due to suicide occurred at 20 to 24 years of age in men and 15 to 19 years of age in women. The states with the highest mortality due to suicide were located in the Yucatan Peninsula (Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Campeche). Mortality due to suicide in Mexico has increased continually. As suicides are preventable, the implementation of health public policies through timely identification, integral prevention strategies and the detailed study of associated risk factors is imperative.

  11. Mortality in adults with hypopituitarism: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasim, Sina; Alahdab, Fares; Ahmed, Ahmed T; Tamhane, Shrikant; Prokop, Larry J; Nippoldt, Todd B; Murad, M Hassan

    2017-04-01

    Hypopituitarism is a rare disorder with significant morbidity. To study the evidence on the association of premature mortality and hypopituitarism. A comprehensive search of multiple databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus was conducted through August, 2015. Eligible studies that evaluated patients with hypopituitarism and reported mortality estimates were selected following a predefined protocol. Reviewers, independently and in duplicate, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We included 12 studies (published 1996-2015) that reported on 23,515 patients. Compared to the general population, hypopituitarism was associated with an overall excess mortality (weighted SMR of 1.55; 95 % CI 1.14-2.11), I 2  = 97.8 %, P = 0.000. Risk factors for increased mortality included younger age at diagnosis, female gender, diagnosis of craniopharyngioma, radiation therapy, transcranial surgery, diabetes insipidus and hypogonadism. Hypopituitarism may be associated with premature mortality in adults. Risk is particularly higher in women and those diagnosed at a younger age.

  12. Mortality from road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city: A 20-year analysis in Shenzhen, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shao-Hua; Wu, Yong-Sheng; Liu, Xiao-Jian; Fu, Ying-Bin; Li, Shan-Shan; Ma, Han-Wu; Zou, Fei; Cheng, Jin-Quan

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen. Using data from the Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000-2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from Smeed's law. A total of 20,196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14,391 (71.3%) male deaths and 5,805 (28.7%) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since 1994 and peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compared to those younger than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population were positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per kilometer of road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths/10,000 vehicles) = -1.902 × ln (vehicles/population) - 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a

  13. The impact of increasing income inequalities on educational inequalities in mortality - An analysis of six European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Rasmus; Hu, Yannan; de Gelder, Rianne; Menvielle, Gwenn; Bopp, Matthias; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2016-07-08

    Over the past decades, both health inequalities and income inequalities have been increasing in many European countries, but it is unknown whether and how these trends are related. We test the hypothesis that trends in health inequalities and trends in income inequalities are related, i.e. that countries with a stronger increase in income inequalities have also experienced a stronger increase in health inequalities. We collected trend data on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as on the household income of people aged 35-79, for Belgium, Denmark, England & Wales, France, Slovenia, and Switzerland. We calculated absolute and relative differences in mortality and income between low- and high-educated people for several time points in the 1990s and 2000s. We used fixed-effects panel regression models to see if changes in income inequality predicted changes in mortality inequality. The general trend in income inequality between high- and low-educated people in the six countries is increasing, while the mortality differences between educational groups show diverse trends, with absolute differences mostly decreasing and relative differences increasing in some countries but not in others. We found no association between trends in income inequalities and trends in inequalities in all-cause mortality, and trends in mortality inequalities did not improve when adjusted for rising income inequalities. This result held for absolute as well as for relative inequalities. A cause-specific analysis revealed some association between income inequality and mortality inequality for deaths from external causes, and to some extent also from cardiovascular diseases, but without statistical significance. We find no support for the hypothesis that increasing income inequality explains increasing health inequalities. Possible explanations are that other factors are more important mediators of the effect of education on health, or more simply that income is not an important

  14. Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Saffet

    2009-10-01

    The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey. Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of Paccidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as Paccidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R(2) values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R(2) for death and accident rates, compared with 0

  15. Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. However, extremely high mortality also can be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  16. Increased Mortality for Elective Surgery during Summer Vacation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Nationwide Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Caillet

    Full Text Available Surgical safety during vacation periods may be influenced by the interplay of several factors, including workers' leave, hospital activity, climate, and the variety of patient cases. This study aimed to highlight an annually recurring peak of surgical mortality during summer in France and explore its main predictors. We selected all elective of open surgical procedures performed in French hospitals between 2007 and 2012. Surgical mortality variation was analyzed over time in relation to workers leaving on vacation, the volume of procedures performed by hospitals, and temperature changes. We ran a multilevel logistic regression for exploring the determinants of surgical mortality, taking into account the clustering of patients within hospitals and adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. A total of 609 French hospitals had 8,926,120 discharges related to open elective surgery. During 6 years, we found a recurring mortality peak of 1.15% (95% CI 1.09-1.20 in August compared with 0.81% (0.79-0.82, p<.001 in other months. The incidence of worker vacation was 43.0% (38.9-47.2 in August compared with 7.3% (4.6-10.1, p<.001 in other months. Hospital activity decreased substantially in August (78,126 inpatient stays, 75,298-80,954 in relation to other months (128,142, 125,697-130,586, p<.001. After adjusting for all covariates, we found an "August effect" reflecting a higher risk to patients undergoing operations at this time (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.19, p<.001. The main study limitation was the absence of data linkage between surgical staffing and mortality at the hospital level. The observed, recurring mortality peak in August raises questions about how to maintain hospital activity and optimal staffing through better regulation of human activities.

  17. (Draft) Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W.

    1992-11-01

    1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and excess'' human mortality. The regression model proposed by Ozkaynak and Thurston (1987), which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for migration, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all non-external'' causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. Air quality data were obtained from the EPA AIRS database (TSP, SO[sub 4][sup =], Mn, and ozone) and from the inhalable particulate network (PM[sub 15], PM[sub 2.5] and SO[sub 4][sup =], for 63[sup 4] locations). The data on particulates were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included in the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found as follows: between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model betweenestimated 10-year average (1980--90) ozone levels and 1980 non-external and cardiovascular deaths; and between TSP and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened.

  18. (Draft) Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W.

    1992-11-01

    1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and ``excess`` human mortality. The regression model proposed by Ozkaynak and Thurston (1987), which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for migration, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all ``non-external`` causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. Air quality data were obtained from the EPA AIRS database (TSP, SO{sub 4}{sup =}, Mn, and ozone) and from the inhalable particulate network (PM{sub 15}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub 4}{sup =}, for 63{sup 4} locations). The data on particulates were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included in the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found as follows: between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model betweenestimated 10-year average (1980--90) ozone levels and 1980 non-external and cardiovascular deaths; and between TSP and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened.

  19. [Efficacy of noninvasive ventilation on in-hospital mortality in patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema: a meta-analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tongwen; Wan, Youdong; Kan, Quancheng; Yang, Fei; Yao, Haimu; Guan, Fangxia; Zhang, Jinying; Li, Ling

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of noninvasive ventilation on in-hospital mortality in adult patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema (ACPE) . We searched PubMed, Embase, Wanfang, CNKI data to find relevant randomized controlled trials of noninvasive ventilation for ACPE, which were reported from January 1980 to December 2012. Meta-analysis was performed with software of RevMan 5.1. According to inclusive criteria and exclusion criteria, 35 randomized controlled trials with 3 204 patients were enrolled for analyses. Meta-analysis of the trials showed that continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) reduced in-hospital mortality by 43% (RR = 0.57, 95%CI 0.43-0.75, P management strategies for these patients.

  20. Birthweight and mortality in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risnes, Kari R; Vatten, Lars J; Baker, Jennifer L

    2011-01-01

    . The studies were systematically reviewed and those reporting hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) per kilogram (kg) increase in birthweight were included in generic inverse variance meta-analyses. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, 36¿834 deaths were included and the results showed a 6.......07-1.19) for men and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.98-1.10) for women (P(interaction)¿=¿0.03). Residual confounding could not be eliminated, but is unlikely to account for the main findings. CONCLUSION: These results show an inverse but moderate association of birthweight with adult mortality from all-causes and a stronger...

  1. Genomic analysis of cow mortality and milk production using a threshold-linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuruta, S; Lourenco, D A L; Misztal, I; Lawlor, T J

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of genomic evaluation for cow mortality and milk production using a single-step methodology. Genomic relationships between cow mortality and milk production were also analyzed. Data included 883,887 (866,700) first-parity, 733,904 (711,211) second-parity, and 516,256 (492,026) third-parity records on cow mortality (305-d milk yields) of Holsteins from Northeast states in the United States. The pedigree consisted of up to 1,690,481 animals including 34,481 bulls genotyped with 36,951 SNP markers. Analyses were conducted with a bivariate threshold-linear model for each parity separately. Genomic information was incorporated as a genomic relationship matrix in the single-step BLUP. Traditional and genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were obtained with Gibbs sampling using fixed variances, whereas reliabilities were calculated from variances of GEBV samples. Genomic EBV were then converted into single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker effects. Those SNP effects were categorized according to values corresponding to 1 to 4 standard deviations. Moving averages and variances of SNP effects were calculated for windows of 30 adjacent SNP, and Manhattan plots were created for SNP variances with the same window size. Using Gibbs sampling, the reliability for genotyped bulls for cow mortality was 28 to 30% in EBV and 70 to 72% in GEBV. The reliability for genotyped bulls for 305-d milk yields was 53 to 65% to 81 to 85% in GEBV. Correlations of SNP effects between mortality and 305-d milk yields within categories were the highest with the largest SNP effects and reached >0.7 at 4 standard deviations. All SNP regions explained less than 0.6% of the genetic variance for both traits, except regions close to the DGAT1 gene, which explained up to 2.5% for cow mortality and 4% for 305-d milk yields. Reliability for GEBV with a moderate number of genotyped animals can be calculated by Gibbs samples. Genomic

  2. [Analysis of Incidence and Mortality of Thyroid Cancer in China, 2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, L; Zheng, R S; Wang, N; Zeng, H M; Yuan, Y N; Zhang, S W; Li, H C; Liu, S; Chen, W Q; He, J

    2017-11-23

    Objective: To evaluate the incidence and mortality status of thyroid cancer in China, 2013. Methods: Incidence and mortality data of thyroid cancer were derived from 255 population-based cancer registries in China. Age-specific and age standardized incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer in different areas (urban and rural) with different gender were calculated based on the stratification of area (urban and rural), gender, age and tumor position. Chinese census in 2000 and the world Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates. The incident cases and deaths were estimated using age-specific rates and national population data in 2013. Results: The estimates of new cancer incident cases and deaths were 143.9 thousand and 6 500, respectively. The crude incidence rate was 10.58/100 000 (Male 5.12/100 000, Female 16.32/100 000). Age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 8.82/100 000 and 7.67/100 000, respectively. Male to female ratio was 1∶3.2. The crude incidence rate in urban and rural areas were 15.03/100 000 and 5.41/100 000, respectively. After adjustment by China standard population, the rate in urban areas was 2.57 times higher than that of rural areas. The crude mortality rate of thyroid cancer was 0.48/100 000 (Male 0.33/100 000, Female 0.63/100 000). Age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 0.33/100 000 and 0.32/100 000, respectively. The crude mortality rate in urban and rural areas were 0.57/100 000 and 0.38/100 000, respectively. After adjustment by China standard population, the rate in urban areas was 1.41 times higher than that of rural areas. The cumulative incidence and mortality rates (0-74 years old) were 0.74% and 0.03%, respectively. According to the data from 255 cancer registries, papillary carcinoma is the main pathology type, which accounted

  3. Mortality after exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and polychlorinated dibenzofurans: a meta-analysis of two highly exposed cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming-Chieh; Chen, Pau-Chung; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Furue, Masutaka; Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito; Uchi, Hiroshi; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Guo, Yue Leon

    2015-09-15

    Both Yucheng and Yusho were events of accidental exposure to highly doses of polychlorinated biphenyls and dibenzofurans in Asian people. Mortality experiences caused by various diseases were reported in both cohorts with similar and dissimilar findings. We thus conducted a meta-analysis of two cohorts to reevaluate the effects of PCBs and PCDFs on major causes of mortalities. Two recently updated Yucheng and Yusho mortality studies were included. For selected diseases, standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were extracted. Meta-analyses were conducted using a random-effects model only when heterogeneity (I(2)  > 50% and/or p value <0.10 by the Q test) was not found. A total of 1,803 Yucheng subjects (male, N = 830; female, N = 973) with 48,751 person-years of follow-up and 1,664 Yusho subjects (male, N = 860; female, N = 804) with 50,773 person-years are included. An increase in all-cause mortality (pooled SMR=1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3, I(2)  = 0.0%), all cancers (pooled SMR=1.3, 95% CI: 1.1-1.6, I(2)  = 0.0%), lung cancer (pooled SMR=1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.3, I(2) =0.0%), heart disease (pooled SMR=1.3, 95% CI: 1.0-1.7, I(2)  = 43.4%) and hepatic disease (pooled SMR=1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-2.8, I(2)  = 0.0%) were found in pooled males. Significant elevation from liver cancer was found in pooled females (pooled SMR=2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-3.6, I(2)  = 0.0%). This meta-analysis of Yucheng and Yusho cohorts showed similar elevation from all cancer, lung cancer, heart disease and hepatic disease mortalities in exposed men. Furthermore, a new finding of elevated liver cancer mortality in exposed women was identified. © 2015 UICC.

  4. No firm evidence that lack of blinding affects estimates of mortality in randomised clinical trials of intensive care interventions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthon, Carl Thomas; Granholm, Anders; Perner, Anders; Laake, Jon Henrik; Møller, Morten Hylander

    2018-04-26

    To evaluate the effect of blinding on mortality effect estimates in randomised clinical trials (RCTs) in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. A systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs reporting mortality effect estimates of ICU interventions in adult ICU patients. We assessed differences in summarised risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) between blinded and unblinded RCTs. P firm evidence that lack of blinding affects estimates of mortality in RCTs of ICU interventions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Losing Life and Livelihood: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Unemployment and All-Cause Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelfs, David J.; Shor, Eran; Davidson, Karina W.; Schwartz, Joseph E.

    2011-01-01

    Unemployment rates in the United States remain near a 25-year high and global unemployment is rising. Previous studies have shown that unemployed persons have an increased risk of death, but the magnitude of the risk and moderating factors have not been explored. The study is a random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression designed to assess the association between unemployment and all-cause mortality among working-age persons. We extracted 235 mortality risk estimates from 42 studies, providing data on more than 20 million persons. The mean hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.63 among HRs adjusted for age and additional covariates. The mean effect was higher for men than for women. Unemployment was associated with an increased mortality risk for those in their early and middle careers, but less for those in their late-career. The risk of death was highest during the first 10 years of follow up, but decreased subsequently. The mean HR was 24% lower among the subset of studies controlling for health-related behaviors. Public health initiatives could target unemployed persons for more aggressive cardiovascular screening and interventions aimed at reducing risk-taking behaviors. PMID:21330027

  6. Effectiveness of combined regional-general anesthesia for reducing mortality in coronary artery bypass: meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Timbó Barbosa

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Neuraxial anesthesia (NA has been used in association with general anesthesia (GA for coronary artery bypass; however, anticoagulation during surgery makes us question the viability of benefits by the risk of epidural hematoma. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analyzes examining the efficacy of NA associated with GA compared to GA alone for coronary artery bypass on mortality reduction. METHODS: Mortality, arrhythmias, cerebrovascular accident (CVA, myocardial infarction (MI, length of hospital stay (LHS, length of ICU stay (ICUS, reoperations, blood transfusion (BT, quality of life, satisfaction degree, and postoperative cognitive dysfunction were analyzed. The weighted mean difference (MD was estimated for continuous variables, and relative risk (RR and risk difference (RD for categorical variables. RESULTS: 17 original articles analyzed. Meta-analysis of mortality (RD = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.03 to 0.01, CVA (RR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.32-1.95, MI (RR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.52-1.79 and LHS (MD = -1.94, 95% CI = -3.99 to 0.12 were not statistically significant. Arrhythmia was less frequent with NA (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.50-0.93. ICUS was lower in NA (MD = -2.09, 95% CI = -2.92 to -1.26. CONCLUSION: There was no significant difference in mortality. Combined NA and GA showed lower incidence of arrhythmias and lower ICUS.

  7. Air pollution and mortality in São Paulo, Brazil: Effects of multiple pollutants and analysis of susceptible populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Mercedes A; Son, Jiyoung; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Gouveia, Nelson; Bell, Michelle L

    2016-01-01

    Health impacts of air pollution may differ depending on sex, education, socioeconomic status (SES), location at time of death, and other factors. In São Paulo, Brazil, questions remain regarding roles of individual and community characteristics. We estimate susceptibility to air pollution based on individual characteristics, residential SES, and location at time of death (May 1996-December 2010). Exposures for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) were estimated using ambient monitors. Time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used with individual-level health data. Increased risk of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were associated with all pollutants (P effect estimates for those with > 11 years education were lower than estimates for those with 0 years education for NO2, SO2, and CO (1.66% (95% confidence interval: 0.23%, 3.08%); 1.51% (0.51%, 2.51%); and 2.82% (0.23%, 5.35%), respectively). PM10 cardiovascular mortality effects were (3.74% (0.044%, 7.30%)) lower for the high education group (> 11 years) compared with the no education group. Positive, significant associations between pollutants and mortality were observed for in-hospital deaths, but evidence of differences in air pollution-related mortality risk by location at time of death was not strong.

  8. Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Total Mortality in 120 Cities of China, 2012-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Longjian; Yang, Xuan; Liu, Hui; Wang, Mingquan; Welles, Seth; Márquez, Shannon; Frank, Arthur; Haas, Charles N

    2016-01-01

    China has had a rapid increase in its economy over the past three decades. However, the economic boom came at a certain cost of depleting air quality. In the study, we aimed to examine the burden of air pollution and its association with climatic factors and health outcomes using data from Chinese national and city-level air quality and public health surveillance systems. City-level daily air pollution index (API, a sum weighted index of SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, and Ozone) in 120 cities in 2012 and 2013, and its association with climate factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and panel fixed models. City-level ecological association between annual average API and total mortality were examined using univariate and partial correlation analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by taking the consideration of time-lag effect between exposures and outcomes. The results show that among the 120 cities, annual average API significantly increased from 2012 to 2013 (65.05 vs. 75.99, p 100 (defined as "slightly polluted"), however, it increased to 21 cities (18%) that experienced API >100 for ≥60 days in 2013. Furthermore, 16 cities (13%) in 2012 and 35 (29%) in 2013 experienced a maximum API >300 (defined as "severely polluted"). API was negatively and significantly correlated with heat index, precipitation, and sunshine hours, but positively with air pressure. Cities with higher API concentrations had significantly higher total mortality rates than those with lower API. About a 4-7% of the variation in total mortality could be explained by the difference in API across the nation. In conclusion, the study highlights an increased trend of air pollution from 2012 to 2013 in China. The magnitude of air pollution varied by seasons and regions and correlated with climatic factors and total mortality across the country.

  9. The Impact of Disability and Social Determinants of Health on Condition-Specific Readmissions beyond Medicare Risk Adjustments: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddings, Jennifer; Reichert, Heidi; Smith, Shawna N; Iwashyna, Theodore J; Langa, Kenneth M; Hofer, Timothy P; McMahon, Laurence F

    2017-01-01

    Readmission rates after pneumonia, heart failure, and acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations are risk-adjusted for age, gender, and medical comorbidities and used to penalize hospitals. To assess the impact of disability and social determinants of health on condition-specific readmissions beyond current risk adjustment. Retrospective cohort study of Medicare patients using 1) linked Health and Retirement Study-Medicare claims data (HRS-CMS) and 2) Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (Florida, Washington) linked with ZIP Code-level measures from the Census American Community Survey (ACS-HCUP). Multilevel logistic regression models assessed the impact of disability and selected social determinants of health on readmission beyond current risk adjustment. Outcomes measured were readmissions ≤30 days after hospitalizations for pneumonia, heart failure, or acute myocardial infarction. HRS-CMS models included disability measures (activities of daily living [ADL] limitations, cognitive impairment, nursing home residence, home healthcare use) and social determinants of health (spouse, children, wealth, Medicaid, race). ACS-HCUP model measures were ZIP Code-percentage of residents ≥65 years of age with ADL difficulty, spouse, income, Medicaid, and patient-level and hospital-level race. For pneumonia, ≥3 ADL difficulties (OR 1.61, CI 1.079-2.391) and prior home healthcare needs (OR 1.68, CI 1.204-2.355) increased readmission in HRS-CMS models (N = 1631); ADL difficulties (OR 1.20, CI 1.063-1.352) and 'other' race (OR 1.14, CI 1.001-1.301) increased readmission in ACS-HCUP models (N = 27,297). For heart failure, children (OR 0.66, CI 0.437-0.984) and wealth (OR 0.53, CI 0.349-0.787) lowered readmission in HRS-CMS models (N = 2068), while black (OR 1.17, CI 1.056-1.292) and 'other' race (OR 1.14, CI 1.036-1.260) increased readmission in ACS-HCUP models (N = 37,612). For acute myocardial infarction, nursing home status

  10. Is Annual Volume Enough? The Role of Experience and Specialization on Inpatient Mortality After Hepatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Daniel A; Bababekov, Yanik J; Mehtsun, Winta T; Stapleton, Sahael M; Warshaw, Andrew L; Lillemoe, Keith D; Chang, David C; Vagefi, Parsia A

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the effect of subspecialty practice and experience on the relationship between annual volume and inpatient mortality after hepatic resection. The impact of annual surgical volume on postoperative outcomes has been extensively examined. However, the impact of cumulative surgeon experience and specialty training on this relationship warrants investigation. The New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System inpatient database was queried for patients' ≥18 years who underwent wedge hepatectomy or lobectomy from 2000 to 2014. Primary exposures included annual surgeon volume, surgeon experience (early vs late career), and surgical specialization-categorized as general surgery (GS), surgical oncology (SO), and transplant (TS). Primary endpoint was inpatient mortality. Hierarchical logistic regression was performed accounting for correlation at the level of the surgeon and the hospital, and adjusting for patient demographics, comorbidities, presence of cirrhosis, and annual surgical hospital volume. A total of 13,467 cases were analyzed. Overall inpatient mortality was 2.35%. On unadjusted analysis, late career surgeons had a mortality rate of 2.62% versus 1.97% for early career surgeons. GS had a mortality rate of 2.98% compared with 1.68% for SO and 2.67% for TS. Once risk-adjusted, annual volume was associated with reduced mortality only among early-career surgeons (odds ratio 0.82, P = 0.001) and general surgeons (odds ratio 0.65, P = 0.002). No volume effect was seen among late-career or specialty-trained surgeons. Annual volume alone likely contributes only a partial assessment of the volume-outcome relationship. In patients undergoing hepatic resection, increased annual volume did not confer a mortality benefit on subspecialty surgeons or late career surgeons.

  11. Spatial Analysis of County-Level Breast Cancer Mortality in Texas Arvin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambhroliya, B.; Burau, K.D.; Sexton, K.

    2012-01-01

    Objective. The objectives of the study were to detect high-risk areas and to examine how racial and ethnic status affect the geographic distribution of female breast cancer mortality in Texas. Analyses were based on county-level data for the years from 2000 to 2008. Materials and Methods. Breast cancer mortality data were obtained from the Texas Cancer Registry, and the Spatial Scan Statistics method was used to run Purely Spatial Analyses using the Discrete Poisson, Bernoulli, and Multinomial models. Results and Conclusions. Highest rates of female breast cancer mortality in Texas have shifted over time from southeastern areas towards northern and eastern areas, and breast cancer mortality at the county level is distributed heterogeneously based on racial/ethnic status. Non-Hispanic blacks were at highest risk in the northeastern region and lowest risk in the southern region, while Hispanics were at highest risk in the southern region along the border with Mexico and lowest risk in the northeastern region.

  12. Beta-blocker use and COPD mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etminan Mahyar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the benefits of beta-blockers in patients with established or sub-clinical coronary artery disease, their use in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD has been controversial. Currently, no systematic review has examined the impact of beta-blockers on mortality in COPD. Methods We systematically searched electronic bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library for clinical studies that examine the association between beta-blocker use and all cause mortality in patients with COPD. Risk ratios across studies were pooled using random effects models to estimate a pooled relative risk across studies. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot. Results Our search identified nine retrospective cohort studies that met the study inclusion criteria. The pooled relative risk of COPD related mortality secondary to beta-blocker use was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.62-0.78; I2=82%. Conclusion The results of this review are consistent with a protective effect of beta-blockers with respect to all cause mortality. Due to the observational nature of the included studies, the possibility of confounding that may have affected these results cannot be excluded. The hypothesis that beta blocker therapy might be of benefit in COPD needs to be evaluated in randomised controlled trials.

  13. Factors Associated With Mortality of Thyroid Storm: Analysis Using a National Inpatient Database in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Yosuke; Ono, Sachiko; Yasunaga, Hideo; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Tanaka, Yuji

    2016-02-01

    Thyroid storm is a life-threatening and emergent manifestation of thyrotoxicosis. However, predictive features associated with fatal outcomes in this crisis have not been clearly defined because of its rarity. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations of patient characteristics, treatments, and comorbidities with in-hospital mortality. We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with thyroid storm using a national inpatient database in Japan from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2014. Of approximately 21 million inpatients in the database, we identified 1324 patients diagnosed with thyroid storm. The mean (standard deviation) age was 47 (18) years, and 943 (71.3%) patients were female. The overall in-hospital mortality was 10.1%. The number of patients was highest in the summer season. The most common comorbidity at admission was cardiovascular diseases (46.6%). Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that higher mortality was significantly associated with older age (≥60 years), central nervous system dysfunction at admission, nonuse of antithyroid drugs and β-blockade, and requirement for mechanical ventilation and therapeutic plasma exchange combined with hemodialysis. The present study identified clinical features associated with mortality of thyroid storm using large-scale data. Physicians should pay special attention to older patients with thyrotoxicosis and coexisting central nervous system dysfunction. Future prospective studies are needed to clarify treatment options that could improve the survival outcomes of thyroid storm.

  14. Dietary restriction of rodents decreases aging rate without affecting initial mortality rate a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, Mirre J. P.; Koch, Wouter; Verhulst, Simon

    Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan in multiple species from various taxa. This effect can arise via two distinct but not mutually exclusive ways: a change in aging rate and/or vulnerability to the aging process (i.e. initial mortality rate). When DR affects vulnerability, this lowers

  15. Emergency abdominal aortic aneurysm repair with a preferential endovascular strategy : Mortality and cost-effectiveness analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kapma, Marten R.; Groen, Henk; Oranen, Bjorn I.; van der Hilst, Christian S.; Tielliu, Ignace F.; Zeebregts, Clark J.; Prins, Ted R.; van den Dungen, Jan J.; Verhoeven, Eric L.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To assess mortality and treatment costs of a new management protocol with preferential use of emergency endovascular aneurysm repair (eEVAR) for acute abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Methods: From September 2003 until February 2005, 49 consecutive patients (45 men; mean age 71 years) with

  16. Life table analysis of the United States' Year 2000 mortality objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockett, I R; Pollard, J H

    1995-06-01

    The US Year 2000 mortality objectives are model standards cast as targeted changes in age-adjusted cause-specific death rates. This research centred on the projected impact of such changes on life expectancy and the mortality toll for each sex. A computer simulation was conducted using single decrement, multiple decrement and cause-elimination life table techniques, together with a decomposition procedure. Male and female life expectancy at birth was projected to increase by 1.71 and 1.51 years, respectively, between the designated 1987 baseline and 2000. The leading beneficiaries would be those aged 65 and older, followed by those aged 45-64, and infants. Declines in coronary heart disease, stroke and injury death rates would most influence the projected life expectancy changes, irrespective of sex. Approximately 782,000 male deaths and 730,000 female deaths would be averted under Year 2000 assumptions. Life expectancy would be a useful summary measure to incorporate into official evaluations of the Year 2000 mortality objectives. Targeting of excess male mortality in the US and other highly industrialized nations is recommended.

  17. Daily sitting time and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chau, J.Y.; Grunseit, A.C.; Chey, T.; Stamatakis, E.; Brown, W.J.; Matthews, C.E.; Bauman, A.E.; van der Ploeg, H.P.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To quantify the association between daily total sitting and all-cause mortality risk and to examine dose-response relationships with and without adjustment for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Methods: Studies published from 1989 to January 2013 were identified via searches of

  18. [Time-series analysis of ambient PM₁₀ pollution on residential mortality in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jiang-li; Wang, Qi; Cai, Yue; Zhou, Mai-geng

    2012-05-01

    To explore the short-term impact of ambient PM(10) on daily non-accidental death, cardiovascular and respiratory death of residents in Beijing. Mortality data of residents in Beijing during 2006 to 2009 were obtained from public health surveillance and information service center of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, contemporaneous data of average daily air concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2) were obtained from Beijing Environment Protection Bureau (year 2005 - 2006) and public website of Beijing environmental protection (year 2007 - 2009), respectively, contemporaneous meteorological data were obtained from china meteorological data sharing service system. Generalized addictive model (GAM) of time serial analysis was applied. In additional to the control of confounding factors such as long-term trend, day of the week effect, meteorological factors, lag effect and the effects of other atmospheric pollutants were also analyzed. During year 2006 to 2009, the number of average daily non-accidental death, respiratory disease caused death, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases caused death among Beijing residents were 140.1, 15.0, 65.8, respectively;contemporaneous medians of average daily air concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2) were 123.0, 26.0, 58.0 µg/m(3), respectively;contemporaneous average atmosphere pressure, temperature and relative humidity were 10.1 kPa, 13.5°C and 51.9%, respectively. An exposure-response relationship between exposure to ambient PM(10) and increased daily death number was found as every 10 µg/m(3) increase in daily average concentration of PM(10), there was a 0.1267% (95%CI: 0.0824% - 0.1710%) increase in daily non-accidental death of residents, 0.1365% (95%CI: 0.0010% - 0.2720%) increase in respiratory death and 0.1239% (95%CI: 0.0589% - 0.1889%) increase in cardiovascular death. Ambient PM(10) had greatest influence on daily non-accidental and cardiovascular death of the same day, while its greatest influence

  19. The contribution of unimproved water and toilet facilities to pregnancy-related mortality in Afghanistan: analysis of the Afghan Mortality Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gon, Giorgia; Monzon-Llamas, Laura; Benova, Lenka; Willey, Barbara; Campbell, Oona M R

    2014-12-01

    To estimate the effect of unimproved household water and toilet facilities on pregnancy-related mortality in Afghanistan. The data source was a population-based cross-sectional study, the Afghan Mortality Survey 2010. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were carried out, comparing 69 pregnancy-related deaths (cases) and 15386 surviving women (non-cases) who had a live birth or stillbirth between 2007 and 2010. After adjusting for confounders, households with unimproved water access had 1.91 the odds of pregnancy-related mortality [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-3.30] compared to households with improved water access. We also found an association between unimproved toilet facilities and pregnancy-related mortality (OR = 2.25; 95% CI 0.71-7.19; P-value = 0.169), but it was not statistically significant. Unimproved household water access was an important risk factor for pregnancy-related mortality in Afghanistan. However, we were unable to discern whether unimproved water source is a marker of unhygienic environments or socio-economic position. There was weak evidence for the association between unimproved toilet facilities and pregnancy-related mortality; this association requires confirmation from larger studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients treated with hemodialysis: Epidemiological analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Dejan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in patients treated with hemodialysis (HD. The annual cardiovascular mortality rate in these patients is 9%. Left ventricular (LV hypertrophy, ischemic heart disease and heart failure are the most prevalent cardiovascular causes of death. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of traditional and nontraditional risk factors for cardiovascular complications, to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular complications and overall and cardiovascular mortality rate in patients on HD. Methods. We investigated a total of 115 patients undergoing HD for at least 6 months. First, a cross-sectional study was performed, followed by a two-year follow-up study. Beside standard biochemical parameters, we also determined cardiac troponins and echocardiographic parameters of LV morphology and function (LV mass index, LV fractional shortening, LV ejection fraction. The results were analyzed using the Student's t test and Mann-Whitney U test. Results. The patients with adverse outcome had significantly lower serum albumin (p < 0.01 and higher serum homocystein, troponin I and T, and LV mass index (p < 0.01. Hyperhomocysteinemia, anemia, hypertriglyceridemia and uncontrolled hypertension had the highest prevalence (86.09%, 76.52%, 43.48% and 36.52%, respectively among all investigated cardiovascular risk factors. Hypertrophy of the LV was presented in 71.31% of the patients and congestive heart failure in 8.70%. Heart valve calcification was found in 48.70% of the patients, pericardial effusion in 25.22% and disrrhythmia in 20.87% of the investigated patients. The average annual overall mortality rate was 13.74%, while average cardiovascular mortality rate was 8.51%. Conclusion. Patients on HD have high risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

  1. Risk factors for cerebrovascular disease mortality among the elderly in Beijing: a competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Tang

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of combined lifestyle factors and physical conditions with cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD mortality, after accounting for competing risk events, including death from cardiovascular diseases, cancers and other diseases. METHODS: Data on 2010 subjects aged over 55 years were finally analyzed using competing risk models. All the subjects were interviewed by the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA, in China, between 1 January 1992 and 30 August 2009. RESULTS: Elderly females were at a lower risk of death from CBVD than elderly males (HR = 0.639, 95% CI = 0.457-0.895. Increasing age (HR = 1.543, 95% CI = 1.013-2.349, poor self-rated health (HR = 1.652, 95% CI = 1.198-2.277, hypertension (HR = 2.201, 95% CI = 1.524-3.178 and overweight (HR = 1.473, 95% CI = 1.013-2.142 or obesity (HR = 1.711, 95% CI = 1.1754-2.490 was associated with higher CBVD mortality risk. Normal cognition function (HR = 0.650, 95% CI = 0.434-0.973 and living in urban (HR = 0.456, 95% CI = 0.286-0.727 was associated with lower CBVD mortality risk. Gray's test also confirmed the cumulative incidence (CIF of CBVD was lower in the 'married' group than those without spouse, and the mortality was lowest in the 'nutrition sufficient' group among the 'frequent consumption of meat group' and the 'medial type group' (P value<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: CBVD mortality was associated with gender, age, blood pressure, residence, BMI, cognitive function, nutrition and the result of self-rated health assessment in the elderly in Beijing, China.

  2. Analysis of prognostic factors affecting mortality in Fournier’s gangrene: A study of 72 cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarchouli, Mohamed; Bounaim, Ahmed; Essarghini, Mohamed; Ratbi, Moulay Brahim; Belhamidi, Mohamed Said; Bensal, Abdelhak; Zemmouri, Adil; Ali, Abdelmounaim Ait; Sair, Khalid

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Fournier’s gangrene is a rapidly progressing necrotizing fasciitis of the perineum and genital area associated with a high mortality rate. We presented our experience in managing this entity and identified prognostic factors affecting mortality. Methods: We carried out a retrospective study of 72 patients treated for Fournier’s gangrene at our institution between January 2005 and December 2014. Patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors and potential prognostic factors were analyzed. Results: Of the 72 patients, 64 were males (89%) and 8 females (11%), with a mean age of 51 years. The most common predisposing factor was diabetes mellitus (38%). The mortality rate was 17% (12 patients died). Statistically significant differences were not found in age, gender, and predisposing factors, except in heart disease (p = 0.038). Individual laboratory parameters significantly correlating with mortality included hemoglobin (p = 0.023), hematocrit (p = 0.019), serum urea (p = 0.009), creatinine (p = 0.042), and potassium (p = 0.026). Severe sepsis on admission and the extent of affected surface area also predicted higher mortality. Others factors, such as duration of symptoms before admission, number of surgical debridement, diverting colostomy and length of hospital stay, did not show significant differences. The median Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI) was significantly higher in non-survivors (p = 0.002). Conclusion: Fournier’s gangrene is a severe surgical emergency requiring early diagnosis and aggressive therapy. Identification of prognostic factors is essential to establish an optimal treatment and to improve outcome. The FGSI is a simple and valid method for predicting disease severity and patient survival. PMID:26600888

  3. Intelligence in youth and all-cause-mortality: systematic review with meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, Catherine M; Deary, Ian J; Fenton, Candida; Roberts, Beverly A; Der, Geoff; Leckenby, Nicola; Batty, G David

    2011-06-01

    A number of prospective cohort studies have examined the association between intelligence in childhood or youth and life expectancy in adulthood; however, the effect size of this association is yet to be quantified and previous reviews require updating. The systematic review included an electronic search of EMBASE, MEDLINE and PSYCHINFO databases. This yielded 16 unrelated studies that met inclusion criteria, comprising 22,453 deaths among 1,107,022 participants. Heterogeneity was assessed, and fixed effects models were applied to the aggregate data. Publication bias was evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. A 1-standard deviation (SD) advantage in cognitive test scores was associated with a 24% (95% confidence interval 23-25) lower risk of death, during a 17- to 69-year follow-up. There was little evidence of publication bias (Egger's intercept = 0.10, P = 0.81), and the intelligence-mortality association was similar for men and women. Adjustment for childhood socio-economic status (SES) in the nine studies containing these data had almost no impact on this relationship, suggesting that this is not a confounder of the intelligence-mortality association. Controlling for adult SES in five studies and for education in six studies attenuated the intelligence-mortality hazard ratios by 34 and 54%, respectively. Future investigations should address the extent to which attenuation of the intelligence-mortality link by adult SES indicators is due to mediation, over-adjustment and/or confounding. The explanation(s) for association between higher early-life intelligence and lower risk of adult mortality require further elucidation.

  4. Association between periodontal disease and mortality in people with CKD: a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Jiang, Hong; Sun, Min; Chen, Jianghua

    2017-08-16

    Periodontal disease occurs relatively prevalently in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it remains indeterminate whether periodontal disease is an independent risk factor for premature death in this population. Interventions to reduce mortality in CKD population consistently yield to unsatisfactory results and new targets are necessitated. So this meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association between periodontal disease and mortality in the CKD population. Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and abstracts from recent relevant meeting were searched by two authors independently. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for overall and subgroup meta-analyses. Statistical heterogeneity was explored by chi-square test and quantified by the I 2 statistic. Eight cohort studies comprising 5477 individuals with CKD were incorporated. The overall pooled data demonstrated that periodontal disease was associated with all-cause death in CKD population (RR, 1.254; 95% CI 1.046-1.503; P = 0.005), with a moderate heterogeneity, I 2  = 52.2%. However, no evident association was observed between periodontal disease and cardiovascular mortality (RR, 1.30, 95% CI, 0.82-2.06; P = 0.259). Besides, statistical heterogeneity was substantial (I 2  = 72.5%; P = 0.012). Associations for mortality were similar between subgroups, such as the different stages of CKD, adjustment for confounding factors. Specific to all-cause death, sensitivity and cumulative analyses both suggested that our results were robust. As for cardiovascular mortality, the association with periodontal disease needs to be further strengthened. We demonstrated that periodontal disease was associated with an increased risk of all-cause death in CKD people. Yet no adequate evidence suggested periodontal disease was also at elevated risk for cardiovascular death.

  5. Does skin cancer screening save lives? A detailed analysis of mortality time trends in Schleswig-Holstein and Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stang, Andreas; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

    2016-02-01

    After a pilot study on skin cancer screening was performed between 2003 and 2004 in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, the country implemented what to the authors' knowledge is the first nationwide skin cancer screening program in the world in 2008. The objective of the current study was to provide details regarding mortality trends in Schleswig-Holstein and Germany in relation to the screening. Annual age-standardized mortality rates for skin melanoma (using the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems [ICD-10] code C43) and malignant neoplasms of ill-defined, secondary, and unspecified sites (ICD-10 code C76-C80) were analyzed. The European Standard population was used for age standardization. A bias analysis was performed to estimate the number of skin melanoma deaths that may have been incorrectly counted as ICD-10 code C76-C80 when the skin melanoma mortality declined in Schleswig-Holstein. The observed mortality decline in Schleswig-Holstein 5 years after the pilot study was accompanied by a considerable increase in the number of deaths due to malignant neoplasms of ill-defined, secondary, and unspecified sites (ICD-10 code C76-C80) that is not explainable by an increase in the incidence of these neoplasms. Incorrect assignment of 8 to 35 and 12 to 23 skin melanoma deaths per year among men and women, respectively, as ICD-10 code C76-C80 during 2007 through 2010 could explain the transient skin melanoma mortality decline observed in Schleswig-Holstein. Five years after implementation of the program, the nationwide skin melanoma mortality increased (age-standardized rate change of +0.4 per 100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.6] in men and +0.1 per 100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval, -0.1 to 0.2] in women). Although the current analyses raise doubts that the skin cancer screening program in Germany can reduce the skin cancer mortality rate, the authors do not believe the program

  6. Analysis of the mortality among Cogema workers monitored for external radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metz-Flamant, C.; Hitz, M.; Samson, E.; Rogel, A.; Telle-Lamberton, M.; Tirmarche, M.; Caer, S.; Quesne, B.

    2006-01-01

    The present study follows 9287 Cogema workers exposed to low level of ionizing radiation from the beginning of employment to the end of 1994. This paper presents analyses of the mortality of Cogema workers monitored for external radiation exposure and the relation between their mortality and their cumulative external radiation dose. Workers were followed up for an average of 13 years. The percentage of subjects lost to follow up was less than 1%. during the follow-up period, 441 deaths occurred. The mean cumulative dose among the whole cohort was 19.4 mSv. As expected, the mortality of the cohort was lower than that of the French national population. The healthy worker effect is often observed in other nuclear workers studies. Part of the healthy worker effect is explained by a proportion of unemployed persons in general population, with a higher mortality rate. All causes S.M.R. increased with calendar period and duration of employment. this increase was not significant for all cancers S.M.R. by duration of employment. This could illustrate the decrease of the initial selection at employment with time. A significant increase in risk was observed for all cancers excluding leukemia mortality with increase of radiation dose in the 15-country study. Significant excess of leukemia by cumulative radiation exposure was observed in the 3-country study and was borderline significant in the 15-country study and in the UK National register for radiation workers study. A positive trend, not statistically significant, by level of external doses was observed in our study for all cancers and leukemia excluding chronic lymphatic leukemia mortality, but the analyses lack of statistical power. A significant trend was observed only for non-Hodgkin lymphoma death, but considering the large number of statistic tests computed, this result must be carefully interpreted. A borderline significant trend was observed for lung cancer death, a significant increase risk of lung cancer death

  7. Daily sitting time and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josephine Y Chau

    Full Text Available To quantify the association between daily total sitting and all-cause mortality risk and to examine dose-response relationships with and without adjustment for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity.Studies published from 1989 to January 2013 were identified via searches of multiple databases, reference lists of systematic reviews on sitting and health, and from authors' personal literature databases. We included prospective cohort studies that had total daily sitting time as a quantitative exposure variable, all-cause mortality as the outcome and reported estimates of relative risk, or odds ratios or hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Two authors independently extracted the data and summary estimates of associations were computed using random effects models.Six studies were included, involving data from 595,086 adults and 29,162 deaths over 3,565,569 person-years of follow-up. Study participants were mainly female, middle-aged or older adults from high-income countries; mean study quality score was 12/15 points. Associations between daily total sitting time and all-cause mortality were not linear. With physical activity adjustment, the spline model of best fit had dose-response HRs of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.98-1.03, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99-1.05 and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.08 for every 1-hour increase in sitting time in intervals between 0-3, >3-7 and >7 h/day total sitting, respectively. This model estimated a 34% higher mortality risk for adults sitting 10 h/day, after taking physical activity into account. The overall weighted population attributable fraction for all-cause mortality for total daily sitting time was 5.9%, after adjusting for physical activity.Higher amounts of daily total sitting time are associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity appears to attenuate the hazardous association. These findings provide a starting point for identifying a threshold on which to base clinical and public

  8. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...... with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...

  10. Association of Healthy Habits Beliefs and Mortality in Older Adults: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Villa, Julio M; Marquez, David X; Sanchez-Garrido, Natalia; Perez-Zepeda, Mario U; Gonzalez-Lara, Mariana

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this article is to establish the association between beliefs about healthy habits and mortality in a group of Mexican older adults. This is an 11-year follow-up secondary analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study. There was a significant difference ( p healthy habits have the potential to improve health compared with those who did not. After adjustment for confounders, Cox regression models showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] [0.07, 0.38], p healthy habits. Although the mechanism is not completely clear, according to our results, believing that healthy habits can improve health was associated with lower rates of mortality. Further research should elucidate potential strategies for changing beliefs in older adults with the goal of improving their overall health.

  11. The analysis of perinatal morbidity and mortality in conditions of perinatal center and the ways of its decrease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Нана Мерабівна Пасієшвілі

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim of research. The analysis of perinatal morbidity and mortality in the condition of one perinatal center of Ukraine and optimization of the possible ways of its decrease.Methods of research. There was analyze the work of Kharkiv regional center in 2011–2015 years taking into account the rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality and factors that have influence on it. There were studied the next parameters: the number of newborns, its apportionment on the weight category, survival, general morbidity, mortality structure of the full-term and premature children. Statistical processing of the received results was carried out using Statistica 6.0 program.Results of research. The frequency of normal delivery in perinatal center is in average 58,9 %. The rates of neonatal mortality decreased– 4,11 ‰ (in 2011 year – 8,23 ‰ and early neonatal one – 3,34 ‰ (in 2011 year – 6,44 ‰. The survival of newborns with extremely low body weight (500- 999 g in first 0-168 hours was 62,50 %; with body weight 1000 – 1499 g – 82,35 %; with body weight at delivery 1500-2499 g was 98,17 %, survival of newborns with body weight > 2500 g in the first 0-6 days was 99,75 % .The morbidity structure of full-term children still almost unchangeable during the last 5 years: asphyxia, congenital defects of development, arrest of foetus growth, cerebral ischemia, intrauterine infection, birth trauma. The morbidity structure of premature ones: respiratory disorder syndrome, intrauterine infection; asphyxia, congenital defects of development, arrest of foetus growth.Among the mortality causes the main ones were congenial defects of development (prevailed in full-term children and intrauterine infection (on the first place in premature children. The perinatal mortality rate in 2015 year was 18,22 %о, in 2011year – 26,65 %о . The maternal foetus infection is the very frequent cause of stillbirth and pre-term birth and as the result the birth of small

  12. Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Rostami

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4 is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. METHODS: The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. RESULTS: The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. CONCLUSIONS: The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.

  13. Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostami, Mehran; Jalilian, Abdollah; Hamzeh, Behrooz; Laghaei, Zahra

    2015-01-01

    The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.

  14. Terrorism, civil war and related violence and substance use disorder morbidity and mortality: A global analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley T. Kerridge

    2014-03-01

    Conclusion: Terrorism, war and one-sided violence may influence morbidity and mortality attributable to substance use disorders in the longer-term suggests that more attention to be given to rapid assessment and treatment of substance use disorders in conflict-affected populations with due consideration of gender and age differences that may impact treatment outcomes in these settings. Priorities should be established to rebuild substance abuse treatment infrastructures and treat the many physical and mental comorbid disorders.

  15. A nonparametric approach to medical survival data: Uncertainty in the context of risk in mortality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janurová, Kateřina; Briš, Radim

    2014-01-01

    Medical survival right-censored data of about 850 patients are evaluated to analyze the uncertainty related to the risk of mortality on one hand and compare two basic surgery techniques in the context of risk of mortality on the other hand. Colorectal data come from patients who underwent colectomy in the University Hospital of Ostrava. Two basic surgery operating techniques are used for the colectomy: either traditional (open) or minimally invasive (laparoscopic). Basic question arising at the colectomy operation is, which type of operation to choose to guarantee longer overall survival time. Two non-parametric approaches have been used to quantify probability of mortality with uncertainties. In fact, complement of the probability to one, i.e. survival function with corresponding confidence levels is calculated and evaluated. First approach considers standard nonparametric estimators resulting from both the Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival function in connection with Greenwood's formula and the Nelson–Aalen estimator of cumulative hazard function including confidence interval for survival function as well. The second innovative approach, represented by Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI), uses lower and upper probabilities for quantifying uncertainty and provides a model of predictive survival function instead of the population survival function. The traditional log-rank test on one hand and the nonparametric predictive comparison of two groups of lifetime data on the other hand have been compared to evaluate risk of mortality in the context of mentioned surgery techniques. The size of the difference between two groups of lifetime data has been considered and analyzed as well. Both nonparametric approaches led to the same conclusion, that the minimally invasive operating technique guarantees the patient significantly longer survival time in comparison with the traditional operating technique

  16. Improved outcome for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia after risk-adjusted intensive therapy: a single institution experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Nasser, A.; El-Solh, H.; Al-Mahr, M.

    2008-01-01

    Because of need for more comprehensive information on the least toxic and most effective forms of therapy for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), we reviewed our experience in the treatment of children with ALL at King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre (KFSHRC) and King Fahd National Center for Children's Cancer and Research (KFNCCCR) over a period of 18 years with a focus on patient characteristics and outcome. During the period of 1981 to 1988, records of children with ALL were retrospectively reviewed with respect to clinical presentation, laboratory findings, risk factors, stratification, therapy and outcome. The protocols used in treatment included 4 local protocols (KFSH 81, 84, 87 and 90) and subsequently. Children's Cancer Group (CCG) protocols and these were grouped as Era (1981-1992) and Era 2 (1993-1998). Of 509 children with ALL treated during this period, 316 were treated using local protocols and 193 using CCG protocols. Drugs used in Era 1 included a 4-drug induction using etoposid (VP-16) instead of L-asparaginase. Consolidation was based on high dose methotexate (MTX) 1g/m2 and maintenance was based on oral mercaptopurine (6-MP) and MTX with periodic pulses using intravenous teniposide (VM-26), Ara-C, L-asparaginase, adriamycin, prednisone, VP-16 cyclophosphamide .International protocols were introduced in Era 2, which was also marked by intensification of early treatment, a wider selection of cytoreductive agents, and the alternating use of non-cross-resistant pairs of drugs using the post-remission period. The end of induction remission rate improved from 90% in Era 1 to 95% in Era 2, which was of borderline statistical significance (P=0.49). The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) improved from 30.6% in Era 1 to 64.2% in Era 2 (P<.001). Improvement in outcome was achieved without any significant increase in morbidity or mortality, due to improvement in both systemic therapy and supportive care. The most important

  17. Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dora Ordóñez

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Materials and methods. Age-standardized (Segi’s world population incidence (ASIR and mortality (ASMR rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH respectively. Annual percentage change (APC was used to measure the changes in rates over time. Results. 1 637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6 and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4.The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5. Conclusions. There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma

  18. [Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

  19. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papaioannou, V E; Pneumatikos, I A; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I

    2013-01-01

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. (paper)

  20. Acute Abdomen in Diabetic Patients – Analysis of Complications and Mortality

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    Dejeu Dănuț

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims. We aimed to analyze the complications and mortality of acute abdomen cases in diabetic patients compared to non-diabetic patients. Materials and Method. This observational, retrospective, cohort study was conducted between 2008 - 2011, on a total of 4021 cases with acute abdomen admitted to the Surgical Ward I of the Clinical County Emergency Hospital Oradea. Of these, 488 were diabetic patients and 3533 non-diabetics. Results. Women represented the majority in both groups (62.24% respectively 58.40%. Entero-mesenteric infarction and acute pancreatitis were more common in diabetic patients compared to non-diabetics. Peritonitis was more frequent in non-diabetics, with statistically significant difference (p = 0.0003. In diabetic patients the postoperative morbidity was 36.27%, significantly higher than in non-diabetic patients (14.43%. The mortality was significantly higher in diabetic patients than in nondiabetics (9.84% vs. 5.38%. Average length of stay in Surgical Ward I is 3.8 days. For non-diabetic patients, mean hospitalization for acute abdomen was 5.1 days, and for diabetics 7.8 days. Conclusions. This study showed important differences between diabetics and non-diabetic patients in the clinical evolution, complications, mortality and length of hospitalization.

  1. [Analysis of cancer incidence and mortality in elderly population in China, 2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W Q; Zheng, R S; Zhang, S W; Zeng, H M; Zou, X N; He, J

    2017-01-23

    Objective: To estimate the cancer incidence and mortality in elderly Chinese population in 2013 based on the data from local cancer registries submitted to National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR). Methods: Data from 255 cancer registries submitted to NCCR with qualified data after checked and evaluated, were selected for this estimation. Cancer incidence and mortality were stratified by areas, sex, age groups and cancer site, combined with population data of the year 2013 to estimate cancer epidemiology in older people in China. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi's population were used for the estimation of age-standardized incidence/mortality rates. Results: All the 255 cancer registries (88 in urban and 167 in rural areas) were selected for this estimation, covered 37 407 728 elderly subjects, accounting for 17.73% of the entire national elderly population. It was estimated about 2 171.0 thousand new cancer cases in older people in China, accounting for 58.96% of all cancer incidence, with the crude incidence rate of 1 029.16/100 000 (1 297.96 per 100 000 in male, 777.18 per 100 000 in female), and the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) was 1 019.25 per 100 000. It was estimated about 1 600.5 thousand deaths in older people in China, accounting for 67.70% of all cancer deaths, with the crude mortality of 758.72/100 000 (988.37 per 100 000 in males, 543.44 per 100 000 in females), and the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) was 730.78 per 100 000. Lung cancer, stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer and esophageal cancer were the most common cancers, accounting for about 67.70% of all cancer cases in China. Those cancers are also the most common cancers in China, accounting for about 73.45% of all cancer deaths. Conclusions: The cancer burden of elderly population in China is very serious. The major cancer incidence and mortality in urban and rural areas are similar

  2. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    -1975 revealed a considerable social class gradient in male mortality where university teachers and farmers had a 40% lower mortality and waiters and seamen had an about 100% higher mortality than the average for economically active men. The social class gradient was less steep for women. A similar pattern...

  3. Comparative effectiveness of oral antidiabetic drugs in preventing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity: A network meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyeongsil Lee

    Full Text Available In the Guidance for Industry from the Food and Drug Administration in 2008, excess cardiovascular risk should be ruled out in trials of all new antidiabetic drugs; however, relatively few studies have focused on cardiovascular safety with antidiabetic drug use. We aimed to examine mortality and cardiovascular risk using a network meta-analysis. We searched the Medline, Embase, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov registry databases in March 2016 to identify randomized controlled trials reporting cardiovascular risk with the following oral antidiabetic drugs: metformin, sulfonylureas, thiazolidinedione (TZD, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4 inhibitors, and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2 inhibitors. We assessed the differences in the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular-related mortality, acute coronary syndrome (ACS, and myocardial infarction (MI among antidiabetic drugs with fixed effect models for direct pairwise comparisons and Bayesian network meta-analyses to integrate direct and indirect comparisons. Of the 101,183 patients in 73 randomized controlled trials, 3,434 (3.4% died. The relative risks of all-cause mortality with SGLT2 inhibitor use were 0.68 (95% credible interval: 0.57-0.80, 0.74 (0.49-1.10, 0.63 (0.46-0.87, 0.71 (0.55-0.90, and 0.65 (0.54-0.78, compared with placebo, metformin, sulfonylurea, TZD, and DPP4 inhibitor, respectively. The relative risks of cardiovascular-related mortality with SGLT2 inhibitor use were 0.61 (0.50-0.76, 0.81(0.36-1.90, 0.52(0.31-0.88, 0.66(0.49-0.91, and 0.61(0.48-0.77, compared with placebo, metformin, sulfonylurea, TZD, and DPP4 inhibitor, respectively. The relative risks of ACS with SGLT2 inhibitor use was consistent with that of all-cause mortality. SGLT2 inhibitor use was associated with a lower risk of ACS than the other OADs and placebo. The relative risks of MI with SGLT2 inhibitor use were 0.77 (0.63-0.93 and 0.75 (0.60-0.94, compared with placebo and DPP4 inhibitor, respectively. The

  4. Parliamentary privilege--mortality in members of the Houses of Parliament compared with the UK general population: retrospective cohort analysis, 1945-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, John; Crayford, Tim

    2015-12-14

    To examine mortality in members of the two UK Houses of Parliament compared with the general population, 1945-2011. Retrospective cohort analysis of death rates and predictors of mortality in Members of Parliament (MPs) and members of the House of Lords (Lords). UK. 4950 MPs and Lords first joining the UK parliament in 1945-2011. Standardised mortality ratios, comparing all cause death rates of MPs and Lords from first election or appointment with those in the age, sex, and calendar year matched general population. Between 1945 and 2011, mortality was lower in MPs (standardised mortality ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.76) and Lords (0.63, 0.60 to 0.67) than in the general population. Over the same period, death rates among MPs also improved more quickly than in the general population. For every 100 expected deaths, 22 fewer deaths occurred among MPs first elected in 1990-99 compared with MPs first elected in 1945-49. Labour party MPs had 19% higher death rates compared with the general population than did Conservative MPs (relative mortality ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.40). The effect of political party on mortality disappeared when controlling for education level. From 1945 to 2011, MPs and Lords experienced lower mortality than the UK general population, and, at least until 1999, the mortality gap between newly elected MPs and the general population widened. Even among MPs, educational background was an important predictor of mortality, and education possibly explains much of the mortality difference between Labour and Conservative MPs. Social inequalities are alive and well in UK parliamentarians, and at least in terms of mortality, MPs are likely to have never had it so good. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Does anaesthesia with nitrous oxide affect mortality or cardiovascular morbidity? A systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imberger, G; Orr, A; Thorlund, K; Wetterslev, J; Myles, P; Møller, A M

    2014-03-01

    The role of nitrous oxide in modern anaesthetic practice is contentious. One concern is that exposure to nitrous oxide may increase the risk of cardiovascular complications. ENIGMA II is a large randomized clinical trial currently underway which is investigating nitrous oxide and cardiovascular complications. Before the completion of this trial, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis, using Cochrane methodology, on the outcomes that make up the composite primary outcome. We used conventional meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA). We reviewed 8282 abstracts and selected 138 that fulfilled our criteria for study type, population, and intervention. We attempted to contact the authors of all the selected publications to check for unpublished outcome data. Thirteen trials had outcome data eligible for our outcomes. We assessed three of these trials as having a low risk of bias. Using conventional meta-analysis, the relative risk of short-term mortality in the nitrous oxide group was 1.38 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22-8.71] and the relative risk of long-term mortality in the nitrous oxide group was 0.94 (95% CI 0.80-1.10). In both cases, TSA demonstrated that the data were far too sparse to make any conclusions. There were insufficient data to perform meta-analysis for stroke, myocardial infarct, pulmonary embolus, or cardiac arrest. This systematic review demonstrated that we currently do not have robust evidence for how nitrous oxide used as part of general anaesthesia affects mortality and cardiovascular complications.

  6. Leisure time physical activity and mortality: a detailed pooled analysis of the dose-response relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arem, Hannah; Moore, Steven C; Patel, Alpa; Hartge, Patricia; Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Visvanathan, Kala; Campbell, Peter T; Freedman, Michal; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Adami, Hans Olov; Linet, Martha S; Lee, I-Min; Matthews, Charles E

    2015-06-01

    The 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommended a minimum of 75 vigorous-intensity or 150 moderate-intensity minutes per week (7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week) of aerobic activity for substantial health benefit and suggested additional benefits by doing more than double this amount. However, the upper limit of longevity benefit or possible harm with more physical activity is unclear. To quantify the dose-response association between leisure time physical activity and mortality and define the upper limit of benefit or harm associated with increased levels of physical activity. We pooled data from 6 studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium (baseline 1992-2003). Population-based prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe with self-reported physical activity were analyzed in 2014. A total of 661,137 men and women (median age, 62 years; range, 21-98 years) and 116,686 deaths were included. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with cohort stratification to generate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Median follow-up time was 14.2 years. Leisure time moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity. The upper limit of mortality benefit from high levels of leisure time physical activity. Compared with individuals reporting no leisure time physical activity, we observed a 20% lower mortality risk among those performing less than the recommended minimum of 7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.82]), a 31% lower risk at 1 to 2 times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]), and a 37% lower risk at 2 to 3 times the minimum (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.62-0.65]). An upper threshold for mortality benefit occurred at 3 to 5 times the physical activity recommendation (HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.59-0.62]); however, compared with the recommended minimum, the additional benefit was modest (31% vs 39%). There was no evidence of harm at 10 or more times the recommended minimum (HR

  7. Comparative Analysis of Three Brevetoxin-Associated Bottlenose Dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) Mortality Events in the Florida Panhandle Region (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twiner, Michael J.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Fire, Spencer E.; Bowen-Stevens, Sabrina R.; Gaydos, Joseph K.; Johnson, Christine K.; Landsberg, Jan H.; Leighfield, Tod A.; Mase-Guthrie, Blair; Schwacke, Lori; Van Dolah, Frances M.; Wang, Zhihong; Rowles, Teresa K.

    2012-01-01

    In the Florida Panhandle region, bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been highly susceptible to large-scale unusual mortality events (UMEs) that may have been the result of exposure to blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and its neurotoxin, brevetoxin (PbTx). Between 1999 and 2006, three bottlenose dolphin UMEs occurred in the Florida Panhandle region. The primary objective of this study was to determine if these mortality events were due to brevetoxicosis. Analysis of over 850 samples from 105 bottlenose dolphins and associated prey items were analyzed for algal toxins and have provided details on tissue distribution, pathways of trophic transfer, and spatial-temporal trends for each mortality event. In 1999/2000, 152 dolphins died following extensive K. brevis blooms and brevetoxin was detected in 52% of animals tested at concentrations up to 500 ng/g. In 2004, 105 bottlenose dolphins died in the absence of an identifiable K. brevis bloom; however, 100% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 29,126 ng/mL. Dolphin stomach contents frequently consisted of brevetoxin-contaminated menhaden. In addition, another potentially toxigenic algal species, Pseudo-nitzschia, was present and low levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) were detected in nearly all tested animals (89%). In 2005/2006, 90 bottlenose dolphins died that were initially coincident with high densities of K. brevis. Most (93%) of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 2,724 ng/mL. No DA was detected in these animals despite the presence of an intense DA-producing Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. In contrast to the absence or very low levels of brevetoxins measured in live dolphins, and those stranding in the absence of a K. brevis bloom, these data, taken together with the absence of any other obvious pathology, provide strong evidence that brevetoxin was the causative agent involved in these bottlenose dolphin mortality

  8. An Analysis of the Last Clinical Encounter before Outpatient Mortality among Children with HIV Infection and Exposure in Lilongwe, Malawi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A Rees

    Full Text Available Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV contributes to nearly 20% of all deaths in children under five years of age in Malawi. Expanded coverage of antiretroviral therapy has allowed children to access treatment on an outpatient basis. Little is known about characteristics of the final outpatient encounter prior to mortality in the outpatient setting.This retrospective cohort study assessed clinical factors associated with mortality among HIV-exposed infants and HIV-infected children less than 18 years of age at the Baylor College of Medicine Abbott Fund Children's Center of Excellence in Lilongwe, Malawi. We compared clinical indicators documented from the final outpatient encounter for patients who died in the outpatient setting versus those who were alive after their penultimate clinical encounter.Of the 8,546 patients who were attended to over a 10-year period at the Baylor Center of Excellence, 851 had died (10%. Of children who died, 392 (46% were directly admitted to the hospital after their last clinical encounter and died as inpatients. Of the remaining 459 who died as outpatients after their last visit, 53.5% had a World Health Organization (WHO stage IV condition at their last visit, and 25% had a WHO stage III condition. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that poor nutritional status, female gender, shorter time as a patient, more clinical encounters in the prior month, if last visit was an unscheduled sick visit, and if the patient had lost weight since their prior visit independently predicted increased mortality in the outpatient setting after the final clinical encounter.Clinical indicators may assist in identifying children with HIV who have increased risk of mortality in the outpatient setting. Recognizing these indicators may aid in identifying HIV-infected children who require a higher level of care or closer follow-up.

  9. Comparative analysis of three brevetoxin-associated bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus mortality events in the Florida Panhandle region (USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Twiner

    Full Text Available In the Florida Panhandle region, bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus have been highly susceptible to large-scale unusual mortality events (UMEs that may have been the result of exposure to blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and its neurotoxin, brevetoxin (PbTx. Between 1999 and 2006, three bottlenose dolphin UMEs occurred in the Florida Panhandle region. The primary objective of this study was to determine if these mortality events were due to brevetoxicosis. Analysis of over 850 samples from 105 bottlenose dolphins and associated prey items were analyzed for algal toxins and have provided details on tissue distribution, pathways of trophic transfer, and spatial-temporal trends for each mortality event. In 1999/2000, 152 dolphins died following extensive K. brevis blooms and brevetoxin was detected in 52% of animals tested at concentrations up to 500 ng/g. In 2004, 105 bottlenose dolphins died in the absence of an identifiable K. brevis bloom; however, 100% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 29,126 ng/mL. Dolphin stomach contents frequently consisted of brevetoxin-contaminated menhaden. In addition, another potentially toxigenic algal species, Pseudo-nitzschia, was present and low levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA were detected in nearly all tested animals (89%. In 2005/2006, 90 bottlenose dolphins died that were initially coincident with high densities of K. brevis. Most (93% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 2,724 ng/mL. No DA was detected in these animals despite the presence of an intense DA-producing Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. In contrast to the absence or very low levels of brevetoxins measured in live dolphins, and those stranding in the absence of a K. brevis bloom, these data, taken together with the absence of any other obvious pathology, provide strong evidence that brevetoxin was the causative agent involved in these bottlenose dolphin

  10. Mortality and cause-of-death reporting and analysis systems in seven pacific island countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carter Karen L

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality statistics are essential for population health assessment. Despite limitations in data availability, Pacific Island Countries are considered to be in epidemiological transition, with non-communicable diseases increasingly contributing to premature adult mortality. To address rapidly changing health profiles, countries would require mortality statistics from routine death registration given their relatively small population sizes. Methods This paper uses a standard analytical framework to examine death registration systems in Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. Results In all countries, legislation on death registration exists but does not necessarily reflect current practices. Health departments carry the bulk of responsibility for civil registration functions. Medical cause-of-death certificates are completed for at least hospital deaths in all countries. Overall, significantly more information is available than perceived or used. Use is primarily limited by poor understanding, lack of coordination, limited analytical skills, and insufficient technical resources. Conclusion Across the region, both registration and statistics systems need strengthening to improve the availability, completeness, and quality of data. Close interaction between health staff and local communities provides a good foundation for further improvements in death reporting. System strengthening activities must include a focus on clear assignment of responsibility, provision of appropriate authority to perform assigned tasks, and fostering ownership of processes and data to ensure sustained improvements. These human elements need to be embedded in a culture of data sharing and use. Lessons from this multi-country exercise would be applicable in other regions afflicted with similar issues of availability and quality of vital statistics.

  11. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Niragire

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  12. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niragire, François; Achia, Thomas N O; Lyambabaje, Alexandre; Ntaganira, Joseph

    2017-05-11

    Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  13. Smokeless tobacco use: A meta-analysis of risk and attributable mortality estimates for India

    OpenAIRE

    D N Sinha; K M Palipudi; P C Gupta; S Singhal; C Ramasundarahettige; P Jha; A Indrayan; S Asma; G Vendhan

    2014-01-01

    Background: Use of smokeless tobacco (SLT) is widely prevalent in India and Indian subcontinent. Cohort and case-control studies in India and elsewhere report excess mortality due to its use. Objective: The aim was to estimate the SLT use-attributable deaths in males and females, aged 35 years and older, in India. Materials And Methods: Prevalence of SLT use in persons aged 35 years and older was obtained from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey in India and population size and deaths in the rele...

  14. How to Disable Mortal Loops of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP Implementation: A System Dynamics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaveh M. Cyrus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Successful Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP implementation depends upon various factors known as critical success factors (CSFs. This study developed a system dynamics model of ERP implementation based on CSFs to discuss ERP implementation complexities, which identifies the effect of CSF interrelations on different aspects of ERP project failure. Based on the model hypothesis, CSF interrelations include many causal loop dependencies. Some of these causal loops are called mortal loops, because they may cause the failure of risk reduction efforts to a more severe failure in effect of lack of system thinking on CSFs interrelations. This study discusses how system thinking works as a leverage point for overcoming ERP implementation challenges.

  15. Evidence and temporality of the obesity paradox in coronary bypass surgery: an analysis of cause-specific mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwann, Thomas A; Ramia, Paul S; Engoren, Milo C; Bonnell, Mark R; Goodwin, Matthew; Monroe, Ian; Habib, Robert H

    2018-06-02

    We evaluated the presence of an 'obesity paradox' in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients, determined its time course and ascertained whether it is associated with improved cardiovascular (CV) survival versus non-CV survival. A retrospective analysis of 3 prospectively collected databases was conducted. A fifteen-year Kaplan-Meier analysis in 7091 CABG patients was performed and repeated in 5 body mass index [BMI (kg/m2)] cohorts [Normal (18.5-24.99 kg/m2), Overweight (25-29.99 kg/m2), Obese I (30-34.99 kg/m2), Obese II (35-39.99 kg/m2) and Obese III (≥40 kg/m2)]. Mortality hazard ratios {HR [95% confidence interval (CI)]} were derived using comprehensive multivariable competing risk Cox regression, accounting for BMI categories for overall (0-15), Early (0-1), Intermediate (1-8) and Late (8-15) postoperative years, to relax the proportional hazards assumption. The regression was repeated using BMI as a continuous variable. Mortality was classified into any, CV and non-CV. Obese patients were younger with more comorbidities. Fifteen-year survival was improved in the Overweight and Obese I groups (P < 0.001). Adjusted 15-year mortality was reduced in the Overweight [HR (95% CI) = 0.88 (0.79-0.98)] and Obese I [HR = 0.88 (0.78-0.99)] groups driven by improved CV and non-CV survival. This trend was noted in the early (Overweight) and intermediate postoperative periods (Overweight and Obese I) with no significance in the late period. Higher mortality in the Obese III [HR = 1.28 (1.06-1.55)] group was driven by a decreased CV survival. Using BMI as a continuous variable, a BMI of 29 kg/m2 was associated with optimal survival. We identified a protective partial obesity paradox in the early and intermediate postoperative periods among Overweight and mildly obese (Obese I) patients with improved CV and non-CV survival. The morbidly obese (the Obese III group) had higher early and late CV mortality.

  16. Impact of Hemoglobin Levels and Anemia on Mortality in Acute Stroke: Analysis of UK Regional Registry Data, Systematic Review, and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlas, Raphae S; Honney, Katie; Loke, Yoon K; McCall, Stephen J; Bettencourt-Silva, Joao H; Clark, Allan B; Bowles, Kristian M; Metcalf, Anthony K; Mamas, Mamas A; Potter, John F; Myint, Phyo K

    2016-08-17

    The impact of hemoglobin levels and anemia on stroke mortality remains controversial. We aimed to systematically assess this association and quantify the evidence. We analyzed data from a cohort of 8013 stroke patients (mean±SD, 77.81±11.83 years) consecutively admitted over 11 years (January 2003 to May 2015) using a UK Regional Stroke Register. The impact of hemoglobin levels and anemia on mortality was assessed by sex-specific values at different time points (7 and 14 days; 1, 3, and 6 months; 1 year) using multiple regression models controlling for confounders. Anemia was present in 24.5% of the cohort on admission and was associated with increased odds of mortality at most of the time points examined up to 1 year following stroke. The association was less consistent for men with hemorrhagic stroke. Elevated hemoglobin was also associated with increased mortality, mainly within the first month. We then conducted a systematic review using the Embase and Medline databases. Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria. When combined with the cohort from the current study, the pooled population had 29 943 patients with stroke. The evidence base was quantified in a meta-analysis. Anemia on admission was found to be associated with an increased risk of mortality in both ischemic stroke (8 studies; odds ratio 1.97 [95% CI 1.57-2.47]) and hemorrhagic stroke (4 studies; odds ratio 1.46 [95% CI 1.23-1.74]). Strong evidence suggests that patients with anemia have increased mortality with stroke. Targeted interventions in this patient population may improve outcomes and require further evaluation. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  17. Terrorism, civil war and related violence and substance use disorder morbidity and mortality: a global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerridge, Bradley T; Khan, Maria R; Rehm, Jürgen; Sapkota, Amir

    2014-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine associations between deaths owing to terrorism, civil war, and one-sided violence from 1994-2000 and substance use disorder disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The relationship between terrorism, and related violence and substance use disorder morbidity and mortality among World Health Organization Member States in 2002, controlling for adult per capita alcohol consumption, illicit drug use, and economic variables at baseline in 1994. Deaths as a result of terrorism and related violence were related to substance use disorder DALYs: a 1.0% increase in deaths as a result of terrorism, war and one-sided violence was associated with an increase of between 0.10% and 0.12% in alcohol and drug use disorder DALYs. Associations were greater among males and 15-44 year-old. Terrorism, war and one-sided violence may influence morbidity and mortality attributable to substance use disorders in the longer-term suggests that more attention to be given to rapid assessment and treatment of substance use disorders in conflict-affected populations with due consideration of gender and age differences that may impact treatment outcomes in these settings. Priorities should be established to rebuild substance abuse treatment infrastructures and treat the many physical and mental comorbid disorders. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. [Spatial analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Madrid City, Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Prieto-Flores, María-Eugenia; Mellado San Gabino, Ana; Moreno Jiménez, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide, but its spatial distribution is not homogeneous. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial pattern of mortality from these diseases for men and women, in the populated urban area (AUP) of the municipality of Madrid, and to identify spatial aggregations. An ecological study was carried out by census tract, for men and women in 2010. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), Relative Risk Smoothing (RRS) and Posterior Probability (PP) were calculated to consider the spatial pattern of the disease. To identify spatial clusters the Moran index (Moran I) and the Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) were used. The results were mapped. SMR higher than 1.1 was observed mainly in central areas among men and in peripheral areas among women. The PP that RRS was higher than 1 surpassed 0.8 in the center and in the periphery, in both men and women. Moran's I was 0.04 for men and 0.03 for women (p AUP. The LISA method showed similar patterns to those previously observed.

  19. First analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1986-1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoda, Yutaka; Kuba, Michiyoshi; Miyake, Toshio

    1997-01-01

    The health effects or low doses and low dose rates exposure to human bodies have not been clarified yet. Under this situation, the Radiation Effects Association entrusted by the Science and Technology Agency of the Japanese Government began a survey entitled 'The Epidemiological Study on Nuclear Industry Workers.' The study population consisted of 114,900 workers in the nuclear industry. Their vital status and identification of cause of death were confirmed by residence registration records and by magnetic tapes of National Vital Statistics, respectively. Their dose information was obtained from the Radiation Dose Registration Center for Workers. The total population dose of the study population was 1,598.5 person-Sv, and the mean cumulative dose per individual was 13.9 mSv. The study period was between 1986 and 1992, average follow-up period being 4.6 years. There were 1,758 deaths including 661 of all malignant neoplasms among the population. The SMR was used to compare mortality among members of the study population and that of Japanese males in general after adjustment for age distribution. Furthermore, members of the population were grouped by cumulative dose groups, and the O/E was calculated to test whether there is a trend for the death rate to increase with dose. The present study demonstrated no evidence of any effect of low level radiation upon health, particularly upon the cancer mortality. (author)

  20. Fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1991-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudo, Shin'ichi; Ishida, Jun'ichi; Yoshimoto, Keiko; Mizuno, Shoichi; Ohshima, Sumio; Furuta, Hiroshige; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Radiation Effects Association has carried out radiation epidemiological study for nuclear industry workers during 1990-2010. We assembled a cohort of 204,103 workers. The average cumulative dose was 13.8 mSv (median 1.0 mSv, interquartile range (IQR) 0.0-10.7 mSv) and the average follow-up period was 14.2 year. The present report has not concluded that low-dose radiation increases cancer mortality based on the follow-up data through 2010. One reason is that analyses among 75,442 respondents —the average cumulative dose was 25.8 mSv (median 6.3 mSv, IQR 0.2-28.0 mSv) and the average follow-up period was 8.3 year— to the lifestyle surveys revealed the decrease of the ERR after adjusting for smoking habits or educational year, suggesting that confounder has a large effect on the association between radiation exposure and mortalities in the cohort. Another reason is that in analyses on all cohort members, no significant ERR was observed in all death, and leukemia excluding chronic lymphoid leukemia. Significant ERR was seen in all cancers excluding leukemia, but this significance of the ERR might be affected by confounder such as smoking, because the significance of the ERR in all cancers excluding leukemia originates in the significance of the ERR in lung cancer. (author)

  1. Statistical analysis of grapevine mortality associated with esca or Eutypa dieback foliar expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia GUERIN-DUBRANA

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Esca and Eutypa dieback are two major wood diseases of grapevine in France. Their widespread distribution in vineyards leads to vine decline and to a loss in productivity. However, little is known either about the temporal dynamics of these diseases at plant level, and equally, the relationships between foliar expression of the diseases and vine death is relatively unknown too.  To investigate this last question, the vines of six vineyards cv. Cabernet Sauvignon in the Bordeaux region were surveyed, by recording foliar symptoms, dead arms and dead plants from 2004 to 2010. In 2008, 2009 and 2010, approximately five percent of the asymptomatic vines died but the percentage of dead vines which had previously expressed esca foliar symptoms was higher, and varied between vineyards. A logistic regression model was used to determine the previous years of symptomatic expression associated with vine mortality. The mortality of esca is always associated with the foliar symptom expression of the year preceding vine death. One or two other earlier years of expression frequently represented additional risk factors. The Eutypa dieback symptom was also a risk factor of death, superior or equal to that of esca. The study of the internal necroses of vines expressing esca or Eutypa dieback is discussed in the light of these statistical results.

  2. Cardiac magnetic resonance findings predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baggen, Vivan J.M.; Leiner, Tim; Habets, Jesse; Post, Marco C.; Dijk, Arie P. van; Sieswerda, Gertjan T.; Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W.; Boersma, Eric

    2016-01-01

    To provide a comprehensive overview of all reported cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) findings that predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched for longitudinal studies published by April 2015 that reported associations between CMR findings and adverse clinical outcome in PAH. Studies were appraised using previously developed criteria for prognostic studies. Meta-analysis using random effect models was performed for CMR findings investigated by three or more studies. Eight papers (539 patients) investigating 21 different CMR findings were included. Meta-analysis showed that right ventricular (RV) ejection fraction was the strongest predictor of mortality in PAH (pooled HR 1.23 [95 % CI 1.07-1.41], p = 0.003) per 5 % decrease. In addition, RV end-diastolic volume index (pooled HR 1.06 [95 % CI 1.00-1.12], p = 0.049), RV end-systolic volume index (pooled HR 1.05 [95 % CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.013) and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (pooled HR 1.16 [95 % CI 1.00-1.34], p = 0.045) were of prognostic importance. RV and LV mass did not provide prognostic information (p = 0.852 and p = 0.983, respectively). This meta-analysis substantiates the clinical yield of specific CMR findings in the prognostication of PAH patients. Decreased RV ejection is the strongest and most well established predictor of mortality. (orig.)

  3. Cardiac magnetic resonance findings predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baggen, Vivan J.M. [AHMaZON Centre for Adult Congenital Heart Disease, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Radboud University Medical Centre Nijmegen and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Department of Cardiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Leiner, Tim; Habets, Jesse [University Medical Centre Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Post, Marco C.; Dijk, Arie P. van; Sieswerda, Gertjan T. [AHMaZON Centre for Adult Congenital Heart Disease, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Radboud University Medical Centre Nijmegen and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Department of Cardiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W. [Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Boersma, Eric [Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-11-15

    To provide a comprehensive overview of all reported cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) findings that predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched for longitudinal studies published by April 2015 that reported associations between CMR findings and adverse clinical outcome in PAH. Studies were appraised using previously developed criteria for prognostic studies. Meta-analysis using random effect models was performed for CMR findings investigated by three or more studies. Eight papers (539 patients) investigating 21 different CMR findings were included. Meta-analysis showed that right ventricular (RV) ejection fraction was the strongest predictor of mortality in PAH (pooled HR 1.23 [95 % CI 1.07-1.41], p = 0.003) per 5 % decrease. In addition, RV end-diastolic volume index (pooled HR 1.06 [95 % CI 1.00-1.12], p = 0.049), RV end-systolic volume index (pooled HR 1.05 [95 % CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.013) and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (pooled HR 1.16 [95 % CI 1.00-1.34], p = 0.045) were of prognostic importance. RV and LV mass did not provide prognostic information (p = 0.852 and p = 0.983, respectively). This meta-analysis substantiates the clinical yield of specific CMR findings in the prognostication of PAH patients. Decreased RV ejection is the strongest and most well established predictor of mortality. (orig.)

  4. Oral primary care: an analysis of its impact on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Thiago Augusto Hernandes; Thomaz, Erika Bárbara Abreu Fonseca; da Silva, Núbia Cristina; de Sousa Queiroz, Rejane Christine; de Souza, Marta Rovery; Barbosa, Allan Claudius Queiroz; Thumé, Elaine; Rocha, João Victor Muniz; Alvares, Viviane; de Almeida, Dante Grapiuna; Vissoci, João Ricardo Nickenig; Staton, Catherine Ann; Facchini, Luiz Augusto

    2017-10-30

    Oral cancer is a potentially fatal disease, especially when diagnosed in advanced stages. In Brazil, the primary health care (PHC) system is responsible for promoting oral health in order to prevent oral diseases. However, there is insufficient evidence to assess whether actions of the PHC system have some effect on the morbidity and mortality from oral cancer. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of PHC structure and work processes on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer after adjusting for contextual variables. An ecological, longitudinal and analytical study was carried out. Data were obtained from different secondary data sources, including three surveys that were nationally representative of Brazilian PHC and carried out over the course of 10 years (2002-2012). Data were aggregated at the state level at different times. Oral cancer incidence and mortality rates, standardized by age and gender, served as the dependent variables. Covariables (sociodemographic, structure of basic health units, and work process in oral health) were entered in the regression models using a hierarchical approach based on a theoretical model. Analysis of mixed effects with random intercept model was also conducted (alpha = 5%). The oral cancer incidence rate was positively association with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.59; p = 0.010) and adult smokers (β = 0.29; p = 0.010). The oral cancer related mortality rate was positively associated with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.24; p oral cancer (β = 0.02; p = 0.002). Mortality was inversely associated with the coverage of primary care teams (β = -0.01; p oral cancer, but not the incidence rate of the disease. We recommend expanding investments in PHC in order to prevent oral cancer related deaths.

  5. Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams Susan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively, and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. Methods Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. Results Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71, while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting and intensity (ambulance and mortality. Conclusions While

  6. Pulmonary Hypertension, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Disease in CKD and ESRD Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Mengyao; Batty, Jonathan A; Lin, Chiayu; Fan, Xiaohong; Chan, Kevin E; Kalim, Sahir

    2018-02-08

    Pulmonary hypertension is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and may be associated with poor outcomes. The magnitude of the association between pulmonary hypertension and mortality is uncertain due to the small size and variable findings of observational studies. Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies using subgroup analyses and metaregression. Patients with ESRD or earlier stages of CKD. Observational studies reporting clinical outcomes in patients with co-existing pulmonary hypertension and CKD or ESRD identified using a systematic search of PubMed and Embase. Pulmonary hypertension diagnosed by Doppler echocardiography. All-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events. 16 studies, with 7,112 patients with an overall pulmonary hypertension prevalence of 23%, were included. Pulmonary hypertension was associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality among patients with CKD (relative risk [RR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.17-1.76), with ESRD receiving maintenance dialysis (RR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.91-2.83), and with a functioning kidney transplant (RR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.35-3.20). Pulmonary hypertension was associated with increased risk for cardiovascular events in patients with CKD (RR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.07-2.60) and ESRD receiving dialysis (RR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.76-3.08). There was an association between pulmonary hypertension and increased risk for cardiovascular mortality in patients with CKD or ESRD (RR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.53-3.15). Heterogeneity of included studies, possibility of residual confounding, unavailability of individual patient-level data, and possibility of outcome reporting bias. Pulmonary hypertension is associated with a substantially increased risk for death and cardiovascular events in patients with CKD and ESRD. Risk is higher in patients with ESRD receiving dialysis compared with patients with CKD stages 1 to 5. Understanding the effect of interventions to lower

  7. Effects of levosimendan on mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peili; Wu, Xiaoqiang; Wang, Zhiwei; Li, Zhenya; Tian, Xiangyong; Wang, Junpeng; Yan, Tianzhong

    2018-06-01

    We sought to determine the impact of levosimendan on mortality following cardiac surgery based on large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane databases, and ClinicalTrials.gov for RCTs published up to December 2017, on levosimendan for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. A total of 25 RCTs enrolling 2960 patients met the inclusion criteria; data from 15 placebo-controlled randomized trials were included for meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed that the all-cause mortality rate was 6.4% (71 of 1106) in the levosimendan group and 8.4% (93 of 1108) in the placebo group (odds ratio [OR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-1.04; P = 0.09). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the rates of myocardial infarction (OR: 0.91; 95% CI, 0.68-1.21; P = 0.52), serious adverse events (OR: 0.84; 95% CI, 0.66-1.07; P = 0.17), hypotension (OR: 1.69; 95% CI, 0.94-3.03; P = 0.08), and low cardiac output syndrome (OR: 0.47; 95% CI, 0.22-1.02; P = 0.05). Levosimendan did not result in a reduction in mortality in adult cardiac surgery patients. Well designed, adequately powered, multicenter trials are necessary to determine the role of levosimendan in adult cardiac surgery. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

  8. Trends in malnutrition and mortality in Darfur, Sudan, between 2004 and 2008: a meta-analysis of publicly available surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jens; Prudhon, Claudine; de Radigues, Xavier

    2011-08-01

    The humanitarian response to the crisis in Darfur is the largest humanitarian operation in the world. To investigate the evolution of the conditions of the affected population, we analysed trends in malnutrition and mortality, the most widely accepted indicators for assessing the degree of severity of a crisis. We did a meta-analysis of 164 publicly available surveys taking into account changes in the contextual situation and humanitarian aid; type of population [residents and internally displaced persons (IDPs)]; and seasonal variations. Data on global acute malnutrition (GAM), severe acute malnutrition (SAM), crude death rate (CDR) and under-five death rate (U5DR) were analysed using a random effect model. GAM and SAM decreased by 16% and 28%, respectively, in 2004-05, whereas CDR dropped by 44-75% per year depending on state and type of population and U5DR decreased by an overall 50% yearly. Both security and the humanitarian contexts became increasingly complex after 2005, but levels of malnutrition stabilized in North and South Darfur. In West Darfur, GAM remained stable but SAM tended to increase for IDPs, although mortality rates remained constant. Mortality increased slightly for residents in South Darfur after 2005, even though nutritional status was stable. GAM, SAM, CDR and U5DR fluctuated markedly with seasons. A meta-analysis of myriads of surveys permitted us to draw an overall picture of the situation in Darfur and to identify some of its influencing factors. The large humanitarian operation, which gained momentum through 2004-05, was able to contain the crisis despite huge difficulties, but did not compensate for seasonal variations. The situation has remained fragile with some negative patterns tending to emerge. It is crucial that the humanitarian situation continues to be closely monitored.

  9. Spatial Analysis of Regional Factors and Lung Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiaoping; Wang, Limin; Zhu, Li

    2017-04-01

    Background: China's lung cancer crude death rate has increased 6.9-fold from 1973 to 2014. During this time, the country experienced extremely rapid economic growth and social change. It is important to understand the effects of risk factors on lung cancer mortality (LCM) for better allocation of limited resources of cancer prevention and control in China. Methods: Using three nationwide mortality surveys from 1973 to 2005, Global Health Data Exchange data in 2013, three nationwide smoking surveys from 1984 to 2013, four population censuses from 1964 to 2000, and other datasets, we have compiled datasets and developed spatial random effect models to assess the association of various area-level-contributing factors on LCM. Spatial scan statistics are used to detect high-risk clusters of LCM. Results: LCM is higher in urban and more industrialized areas (RR = 1.17) compared with those in rural areas. The level of industrial development's effect is higher for men, which accounts for about 70% of all LCM. Smoking is positively associated with regional variation of LCM rates, and the effect is higher for women than for men. Conclusions: The geographic pattern of high LCM in China is different from that of Western countries. LCM is positively associated with higher socioeconomic status, with more urbanized areas at a higher level of industrial development. Impact: There is a need to further explore additional risk in the high-risk clusters. The study is about China, but this situation may happen in other countries experiencing rapid industrialization and other developing countries. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(4); 569-77. ©2017 AACR See all the articles in this CEBP Focus section, "Geospatial Approaches to Cancer Control and Population Sciences." ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  10. The influence of deprivation on suicide mortality in urban and rural Queensland: an ecological analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Chi-kin; Snider, Anne-Marie; De Leo, Diego

    2014-12-01

    A trend of higher suicide rates in rural and remote areas as well as areas with low socioeconomic status has been shown in previous research. Little is known whether the influence of social deprivation on suicide differs between urban and rural areas. This investigation aims to examine how social deprivation influences suicide mortality and to identify which related factors of deprivation have a higher potential to reduce suicide risk in urban and rural Queensland, Australia. Suicide data from 2004 to 2008 were obtained from the Queensland Suicide Register. Age-standardized suicide rates (15+ years) and rate ratios, with a 95% confidence interval, for 38 Statistical Subdivisions (SSDs) in Queensland were calculated. The influence of deprivation-related variables on suicide and their rural-urban difference were modelled by log-linear regression analyses through backward elimination. Among the 38 SSDs in Queensland, eight had a higher suicide risk while eleven had a lower rate. Working-age males (15-59 years) had the most pronounced geographic variation in suicide rate. In urban areas, suicide rates were positively associated with tenant households in public housing, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, the unemployment rate and median individual income, but inversely correlated with younger age and households with no internet access. In rural areas, only tenant households in public housing and households with no internet access heightened the risk of suicide, while a negative association was found for younger and older persons, low-skilled workers or labourers, and families with low income and no cars. The extent to which social deprivation contributes to suicide mortality varies considerably between rural and urban areas.

  11. Chewing betel quid and the risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Tomohide; Hara, Kazuo; Kadowaki, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    Betel nut (Areca nut) is the fruit of the Areca catechu tree. Approximately 700 million individuals regularly chew betel nut (or betel quid) worldwide and it is a known risk factor for oral cancer and esophageal cancer. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the influence of chewing betel quid on metabolic diseases, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Science Direct for pertinent articles (including the references) published between 1951 and 2013. The adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval were calculated using the random effect model. Sex was used as an independent category for comparison. Of 580 potentially relevant studies, 17 studies from Asia (5 cohort studies and 12 case-control studies) covering 388,134 subjects (range: 94 to 97,244) were selected. Seven studies (N = 121,585) showed significant dose-response relationships between betel quid consumption and the risk of events. According to pooled analysis, the adjusted RR of betel quid chewers vs. non-chewers was 1.47 (PBetel quid chewing is associated with an increased risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Thus, in addition to preventing oral cancer, stopping betel quid use could be a valuable public health measure for metabolic diseases that are showing a rapid increase in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.

  12. Updated mortality analysis of radiation workers at Rocketdyne (Atomics International), 1948-2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boice, John; Cohen, Sarah; Mumma, Michael; Ellis, Elizabeth D.; Eckerman, Keith F.; Leggett, Richard Wayne; Boecker, Bruce; Brill, Bertrand; Henderson, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Updated analyses of mortality data are presented on 5,801 radiation workers, including 2,232 monitored for radionuclide intakes, and 41,169 non-radiation workers employed 1948-1999 at Rocketdyne (Atomics International). The worker population is unique in that lifetime occupational doses from all places of employment were sought and incorporated into the analyses. Further, radiation doses from intakes of 14 different radionuclides were calculated for 16 organs or tissues using biokinetic models of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). The mean dose from external radiation was 13.5 mSv (maximum 1 Sv), and the mean lung dose from external and internal radiation combined was 19.0 mSv (maximum 3.6 Sv). An additional nine years of follow-up, from December 31,1999 through 2008, increased the person-years of observation by 21.7% to 196,674 (mean 33.9 years) and the number of cancer deaths by 50% to 684. Analyses included comparisons with the general population and the computation of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and internal comparisons using proportional hazards models. All cancers taken together (SMR 0.88; 95% CI 0.81-0.95), lung cancer (SMR 0.87; 95% CI 0.76-1.00) and leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (SMR 1.04; 95% 0.67-1.53) were not significantly elevated. Cox regression analyses revealed no significant dose-response trends for any cancer. For all cancers excluding leukemia, the relative risk (RR) at 100 mSv was estimated as 0.98 (95% CI 0.82-1.17) and for all leukemia other than CLL it was 1.06 (95% CI 0.50-2.23). Uranium was the primary radionuclide contributing to internal exposures, but significant increases in lung and kidney disease were not seen. The extended follow-up re-enforces the findings in the previous study in failing to observe a detectable increase in cancer deaths associated with radiation, but strong conclusions still cannot be drawn because of small numbers and relatively low career doses. Larger

  13. Gender differences in socioeconomic inequality of alcohol-attributable mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Charlotte; Roerecke, Michael; Behrendt, Silke; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-05-01

    The present analysis contributes to understanding the societal distribution of alcohol-attributable harm by investigating socioeconomic inequality and related gender differences in alcohol-attributable mortality. A systematic literature search was performed on Web of Science, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and ETOH from their inception until February 2013. Articles were included when they reported data on alcohol-attributable mortality by socioeconomic status (SES), operationalised as education, occupation, employment status or income. Gender-specific relative risks (RR) comparing low with high SES were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. Gender differences were additionally investigated in random effects meta-regressions. Nineteen articles from 14 countries were included. For women, significant RRs across all measures of SES, except employment status, were found, ranging between 1.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.54; occupation] and 4.78 (95% CI 2.57-8.87; income). For men, all measures of SES showed significant RRs ranging between 2.88 (95% CI 2.45-3.40; income) and 12.25 (95% CI 11.45-13.10; employment status). While RRs for men were in general slightly higher, only for occupation this gender difference was above chance (P = 0.01). Results refer to deaths 100% attributable to alcohol. The results are predominantly based on data from high-income countries, limiting generalisability. Alcohol-attributable mortality is strongly distributed to the disadvantage of persons with a low SES. Marked gender differences in this inequality were found for occupation. Possibly male-dominated occupations of low SES were more strongly related to risky drinking cultures compared with female-dominated occupations of the same SES. © 2014 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  14. Pooled analysis of cancer mortality cases among the employees in five units of the Department of Atomic Energy in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nambi, K.S.V.; Mayya, Y.S.

    1997-01-01

    Available data on cancer mortality in the combined employee populations of five units of the Dept. of Atomic Energy, namely those in Mumbai, Tarapur, Kalpakkam, Hyderabad and Alwaye, with study periods ranging between 13 and 21 years, have been analysed. Data are available only on those still serving, i.e., subjects in the age group 20-59 yrs., and not on the retired employees and this is the major constraint in the study. A total of 81 cancer deaths have been recorded in the combined database of 316619 person-years (PY) of which 28 (34.6% of the total) deaths belonged to the monitored radiation worker category having a database of 112363 PY(35.5% of the total). Background age-specific cancer death rates of the urban Indian population have been constructed by averaging the only available age-specific cancer mortality data published by the Bombay Cancer Registry for Mumbai, Nagpur and Pune cities. Using this as a tentative national urban baseline, the estimated standardised mortality ratio (SMR) for combined DAE employees works out to be 111 with 95% CI:80-138. The SMR for the radiation workers alone is 108(95% CI:72-156) as compared to the SMR of 113 (95% CI:84-149) for the non-radiation workers. The relative risk of radiation workers as opposed to non radiation workers is 0.96(95% CI:0.64 - 1.39); analysis on individual types of cancer also leads to similar results. It is seen clearly that the radiation workers are not at any extra risk of cancer as compared to non-radiation workers. Nor does a comparison with the restricted national base-line data available for cities like Mumbai, Pune and Nagpur indicate any statistically significant risk of cancer in Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) populations. (author)

  15. Attributable mortality of ventilator-associated pneumonia: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised prevention studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melsen, W.G.; Rovers, M.M.; Groenwold, R.H.; Bergmans, D.C.; Camus, C.; Bauer, T.T.; Hanisch, E.W.; Klarin, B.; Koeman, M.; Krueger, W.A.; Lacherade, J.C.; Lorente, L.; Memish, Z.A.; Morrow, L.E.; Nardi, G.; Nieuwenhoven, C.A. van; O'Keefe, G.E.; Nakos, G.; Scannapieco, F.A.; Seguin, P.; Staudinger, T.; Topeli, A.; Ferrer, M.; Bonten, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Estimating attributable mortality of ventilator-associated pneumonia has been hampered by confounding factors, small sample sizes, and the difficulty of doing relevant subgroup analyses. We estimated the attributable mortality using the individual original patient data of published

  16. Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China and its mortality: an analysis of driving factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Shengjie; Wardrop, Nicola A.; Huang, Zhuojie; Bosco, Claudio; Sun, Junling; Bird, Tomas; Wesolowski, Amy; Zhou, Sheng; Zhang, Qian; Zheng, Canjun; Li, Zhongjie; Tatem, Andrew J.; Yu, Hongjie

    2016-12-01

    Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China is rising with increasing Chinese overseas investment and international travel. Identifying networks and drivers of this phenomenon as well as the contributors to high case-fatality rate is a growing public health concern to enable efficient response. From 2011-2015, 8653 P. falciparum cases leading to 98 deaths (11.3 per 1000 cases) were imported from 41 sub-Saharan countries into China, with most cases (91.3%) occurring in labour-related Chinese travellers. Four strongly connected groupings of origin African countries with destination Chinese provinces were identified, and the number of imported cases was significantly associated with the volume of air passengers to China (P = 0.006), parasite prevalence in Africa (P investment in resource extraction having the strongest relationship with parasite importation. Risk factors for deaths from imported cases were related to the capacity of malaria diagnosis and diverse socioeconomic factors. The spatial heterogeneity uncovered, principal drivers explored, and risk factors for mortality found in the rising rates of P. falciparum malaria importation to China can serve to refine malaria elimination strategies and the management of cases, and high risk groups and regions should be targeted.

  17. Model averaging in the analysis of leukemia mortality among Japanese A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, David B.; Cole, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiological studies often include numerous covariates, with a variety of possible approaches to control for confounding of the association of primary interest, as well as a variety of possible models for the exposure-response association of interest. Walsh and Kaiser (Radiat Environ Biophys 50:21-35, 2011) advocate a weighted averaging of the models, where the weights are a function of overall model goodness of fit and degrees of freedom. They apply this method to analyses of radiation-leukemia mortality associations among Japanese A-bomb survivors. We caution against such an approach, noting that the proposed model averaging approach prioritizes the inclusion of covariates that are strong predictors of the outcome, but which may be irrelevant as confounders of the association of interest, and penalizes adjustment for covariates that are confounders of the association of interest, but may contribute little to overall model goodness of fit. We offer a simple illustration of how this approach can lead to biased results. The proposed model averaging approach may also be suboptimal as way to handle competing model forms for an exposure-response association of interest, given adjustment for the same set of confounders; alternative approaches, such as hierarchical regression, may provide a more useful way to stabilize risk estimates in this setting. (orig.)

  18. The Association Between Neighborhood Environment and Mortality: Results from a National Study of Veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Karin; Schwartz, Greg; Hernandez, Susan; Simonetti, Joseph; Curtis, Idamay; Fihn, Stephan D

    2017-04-01

    As the largest integrated US health system, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) provides unique national data to expand knowledge about the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES) and health. Although living in areas of lower NSES has been associated with higher mortality, previous studies have been limited to higher-income, less diverse populations than those who receive VHA care. To describe the association between NSES and all-cause mortality in a national sample of veterans enrolled in VHA primary care. One-year observational cohort of veterans who were alive on December 31, 2011. Data on individual veterans (vital status, and clinical and demographic characteristics) were abstracted from the VHA Corporate Data Warehouse. Census tract information was obtained from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey. Logistic regression was used to model the association between NSES deciles and all-cause mortality during 2012, adjusting for individual-level income and demographics, and accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Veterans who had vital status, demographic, and NSES data, and who were both assigned a primary care physician and alive on December 31, 2011 (n = 4,814,631). Census tracts were used as proxies for neighborhoods. A summary score based on census tract data characterized NSES. Veteran addresses were geocoded and linked to census tract NSES scores. Census tracts were divided into NSES deciles. In adjusted analysis, veterans living in the lowest-decile NSES tract were 10 % (OR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.07, 1.14) more likely to die than those living in the highest-decile NSES tract. Lower neighborhood SES is associated with all-cause mortality among veterans after adjusting for individual-level socioeconomic characteristics. NSES should be considered in risk adjustment models for veteran mortality, and may need to be incorporated into strategies aimed at improving veteran health.

  19. Association between prediabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuli; Cai, Xiaoyan; Mai, Weiyi; Li, Meijun

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate associations between different definitions of prediabetes and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality. Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Data sources Electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar). Selection criteria Prospective cohort studies from general populations were included for meta-analysis if they reported adjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals for associations between the risk of composite cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, all cause mortality, and prediabetes. Review methods Two authors independently reviewed and selected eligible studies, based on predetermined selection criteria. Prediabetes was defined as impaired fasting glucose according to the criteria of the American Diabetes Association (IFG-ADA; fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/L), the WHO expert group (IFG-WHO; fasting glucose 6.1-6.9 mmol/L), impaired glucose tolerance (2 hour plasma glucose concentration 7.8-11.0 mmol/L during an oral glucose tolerance test), or raised haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of 39-47 mmol/mol(5.7-6.4%) according to ADA criteria or 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%) according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline. The relative risks of all cause mortality and cardiovascular events were calculated and reported with 95% confidence intervals. Results 53 prospective cohort studies with 1 611 339 individuals were included for analysis. The median follow-up duration was 9.5 years. Compared with normoglycaemia, prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose according to IFG-ADA or IFG-WHO criteria) was associated with an increased risk of composite cardiovascular disease (relative risk 1.13, 1.26, and 1.30 for IFG-ADA, IFG-WHO, and impaired glucose tolerance, respectively), coronary heart disease (1.10, 1.18, and 1.20, respectively), stroke (1.06, 1.17, and 1.20, respectively), and all cause mortality (1.13, 1.13 and 1

  20. Preliminary analysis of data (1987-1990) from investigation of cancer mortality in high background radiation area of Yangjiang, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tao Zufan; Sun Quanfu; Zhang Shouzhi

    1997-01-01

    Objective: The cancer mortality study conducted in the high background radiation area (HBRA) of Yangjiang, China, was started in 1972. The major objective of the study was to estimate cancer risk associated with the low level radiation exposure in HBRA. Since 1991, the cancer mortality data were collected from a fixed cohort instead of a dynamic one as in the previous stage. The purpose of the study in the current stage was to accumulate further person-years (Pyr) of observation for improving the statistical power of test in the estimates of cancer risk associated with the natural radiation exposure and to see the reproducibility of the previous results. Methods: The collection of cancer mortality data consisted of two phases, the survey of demography and the ascertainment of death causes. The estimates of relative risk (RR) were calculated by AMFIT in Epicure (Hirosoft International Corp., 1988-1992). Results: During the period of 1987-1990 there were 231 cancer deaths among 421640 Pyr at risk in the cohort of 106517 subjects, which were classified into four groups based on the hamlet-specific average annual gamma ray absorbed doses: three groups (high , medial and low doses) from HBRA and control group from CA. The RRs adjusted for sex and age for each dose group in HBRA compared with the control group for overall cancers and for all cancers except leukemia were less than 1 except for the low dose group, and there seemed to be a trend of RR decrease with the increase of exposure dose from natural radiation, though there was no statistically significant difference. As for the site-specific cancer studied, the cancers of lungs, liver, stomach, nasopharynx and leukemia, the RRs were also less than 1 except for nasopharynx cancer and for leukemia in the high dose group. The analysis of combined data ( 1979-1990) showed similar results. Conclusion: Although the sample size was not large enough to make definite conclusion statistically, the observation of current

  1. Effect of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment on mortality in acute respiratory infections: a patient level meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuetz, Philipp; Wirz, Yannick; Sager, Ramon; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Stolz, Daiana; Tamm, Michael; Bouadma, Lila; Luyt, Charles E; Wolff, Michel; Chastre, Jean; Tubach, Florence; Kristoffersen, Kristina B; Burkhardt, Olaf; Welte, Tobias; Schroeder, Stefan; Nobre, Vandack; Wei, Long; Bucher, Heiner C; Annane, Djillali; Reinhart, Konrad; Falsey, Ann R; Branche, Angela; Damas, Pierre; Nijsten, Maarten; de Lange, Dylan W; Deliberato, Rodrigo O; Oliveira, Carolina F; Maravić-Stojković, Vera; Verduri, Alessia; Beghé, Bianca; Cao, Bin; Shehabi, Yahya; Jensen, Jens-Ulrik S; Corti, Caspar; van Oers, Jos A H; Beishuizen, Albertus; Girbes, Armand R J; de Jong, Evelien; Briel, Matthias; Mueller, Beat

    2018-01-01

    In February, 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration approved the blood infection marker procalcitonin for guiding antibiotic therapy in patients with acute respiratory infections. This meta-analysis of patient data from 26 randomised controlled trials was designed to assess safety of procalcitonin-guided treatment in patients with acute respiratory infections from different clinical settings. Based on a prespecified Cochrane protocol, we did a systematic literature search on the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, and Embase, and pooled individual patient data from trials in which patients with respiratory infections were randomly assigned to receive antibiotics based on procalcitonin concentrations (procalcitonin-guided group) or control. The coprimary endpoints were 30-day mortality and setting-specific treatment failure. Secondary endpoints were antibiotic use, length of stay, and antibiotic side-effects. We identified 990 records from the literature search, of which 71 articles were assessed for eligibility after exclusion of 919 records. We collected data on 6708 patients from 26 eligible trials in 12 countries. Mortality at 30 days was significantly lower in procalcitonin-guided patients than in control patients (286 [9%] deaths in 3336 procalcitonin-guided patients vs 336 [10%] in 3372 controls; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·83 [95% CI 0·70 to 0·99], p=0·037). This mortality benefit was similar across subgroups by setting and type of infection (p interactions >0·05), although mortality was very low in primary care and in patients with acute bronchitis. Procalcitonin guidance was also associated with a 2·4-day reduction in antibiotic exposure (5·7 vs 8·1 days [95% CI -2·71 to -2·15], pacute respiratory infections reduces antibiotic exposure and side-effects, and improves survival. Widespread implementation of procalcitonin protocols in patients with acute respiratory infections thus has the potential to improve antibiotic

  2. High mortality in the Thule cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel, K

    1994-01-01

    The objective was to study mortality in the Thule cohort in order to clarify whether it is a selected population and to ascertain the possibility of misinterpretation when national mortality rates are used as reference in the analysis of occupational mortality.......The objective was to study mortality in the Thule cohort in order to clarify whether it is a selected population and to ascertain the possibility of misinterpretation when national mortality rates are used as reference in the analysis of occupational mortality....

  3. Analysis of Potentials to Increase Iranian life Expectancy with Removing the Leading Causes of Mortality in 2010

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    Mohammad Sasanipour

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Recent studies on Iranian mortality clearly underscore the role of cardiovascular diseases, unintentional injuries, and cancers as three leading causes of reduced life expectancy during the last three decades. The purpose of current study is to measure the effect of these causes on 2010 life table for Iran. Materials & Method:The number of registered death by age and sex and death distribution by cause for Iran in 2010 are obtained from death registration system operated by the Ministry of Health and to know more about the population at risk population forecast information of the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI is used. The obtained data are analyzed using Multiple Decrement Life Table and Kitagava analysis method. Results: The results show that three leading causes of death are account for 13 years potential lost life of Iranian men and women. More detailed results indicate that cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and unintentional injuries play larger roles in this regard while men are more likely to die by unintentional injuries than women. Life expectancy of middle aged men are more affected by unintentional injuries while old aged women are more affected by cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion: Particular consideration of risk factors of cardiovascular diseases of both sexes and males death by unintentional injuries is of utmost importance in reducing mortality rate and increasing life expectancy as a result.

  4. The inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference and risk of cardiovascular mortality: A meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ming; Gao, Zhen; Chen, Fei; Xu, Haijun; Dong, Xiao; Ma, Li

    2016-01-01

    The inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference (SBPD) is recommended to be in relation to potential cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies yielded controversial results about the association between an inter-arm SBPD ≥ 10 mmHg or ≥15 mmHg and the risk of cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to investigate this association. We searched PubMed and Embase databases through December 31, 2014, and examined the references of retrieved articles to identify relevant cohort studies. We utilized Newcastle-Ottawa scale to assess the quality of included studies and calculated the summary risk estimates in a fixed/random-effect model. All data analyses were conducted using STATA version 11.0. A total of seven studies were identified. Compared with participants with an inter-arm SBPD arm SBPD ≥ 10 mmHg was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.3-1.93), and the pooled HR of cardiovascular mortality of participants with an inter-arm SBPD ≥ 15 mmHg versus those with an inter-arm SBPD arm SBPD may define a subpopulation at high risk of CVD events.

  5. A meta-analysis of mortality data in Italian contaminated sites with industrial waste landfills or illegal dumps

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    Lucia Fazzo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Adverse effects of waste management represent a public health issue. Mortality meta-analysis in Italian National Priority Contaminated Sites (NPCSs with industrial waste landfills or illegal dumps is presented. Methods. 24 NPCSs include industrial waste landfills or illegal dumps. Class 1 (10 NPCSs with industrial waste landfills and Class 2 (14 NPCSs with illegal dumps were categorized. Random-effects model meta-analyses of Standardized Mortality Ratios non-adjusted (SMRs and adjusted for Deprivation (DI-SMRs computed for each CS (1995-2002 were performed for overall 24 NPCSs and the two classes. The North-Southern gradient was considered. Results. 24 CSs pooled-SMRs are significantly increased in both genders for cancer of liver (men: SMR = 1.13; women: SMR = 1.18, bladder (men: SMR = 1.06; women: SMR = 1.11, and for cirrhosis (men: SMR = 1.09; women: SMR = 1.13. In Class 2 the increase is confirmed in both genders for liver and bladder cancers and for cirrhosis and in men only for lung cancer. Congenital anomalies and adverse perinatal conditions are not increased. Conclusion. The results are consistent with the hypothesis of adverse health effects of non-adequately managed hazardous waste. Causal interpretation is not allowed, but the meta-analytic approach provides more confidence in the findings.

  6. Air Pollution and Deaths among Elderly Residents of São Paulo, Brazil : An Analysis of Mortality Displacement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa, Amine Farias; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert; Ponce de Leon, Antônio Cm

    BACKGROUND: Evaluation of short-term mortality displacement is essential to accurately estimate the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on public health. OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality displacement by estimating single-day lag effects and cumulative effects of air pollutants on mortality

  7. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-16

    Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age

  8. Alternative Strategies to Reduce Maternal Mortality in India: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J.; Sweet, Steve; Carvalho, Natalie; Natchu, Uma Chandra Mouli; Hu, Delphine

    2010-01-01

    Background Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. Methods and Findings Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold (∼23%–35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately

  9. Updated Mortality Analysis of Radiation Workers at Rocketdyne (Atomics International), 1948-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boice Jr JD, Colen SS, Mumma MT, Ellis ED, Eckerman DF, Leggett RW, Boecker BB, Brill B, Henderson BE

    2011-08-01

    Updated analyses of mortality data are presented on 46,970 workers employed 1948-1999 at Rocketdyne (Atomics International). Overall, 5,801 workers were involved in radiation activities, including 2,232 who were monitored for intakes of radionuclides, and 41,169 workers were engaged in rocket testing or other non-radiation activities. The worker population is unique in that lifetime occupational doses from all places of employment were sought, updated and incorporated into the analyses. Further, radiation doses from intakes of 14 different radionuclides were calculated for 16 organs or tissues using biokinetic models of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). Because only negligible exposures were received by the 247 workers monitored for radiation activities after 1999, the mean dose from external radiation remained essentially the same at 13.5 mSv (maximum 1 Sv) as reported previously, as did the mean lung dose from external and internal radiation combined at 19.0 mSv (maximum 3.6 Sv). An additional 9 years of follow-up, from December 31,1999 through 2008, increased the person-years of observation for the radiation workers by 21.7% to 196,674 (mean 33.9 years) and the number of cancer deaths by 50% to 684. Analyses included external comparisons with the general population and the computation of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and internal comparisons using proportional hazards models and the computation of relative risks (RRs). A low SMR for all causes of death (SMR 0.82; 95% CI 0.78-0.85) continued to indicate that the Rocketdyne radiation workers were healthier than the general population and were less likely to die. The SMRs for all cancers taken together (SMR 0.88; 95% CI 0.81-0.95), lung cancer (SMR 0.87; 95% CI 0.76-1.00) and leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (SMR 1.04; 95% 0.67-1.53) were not significantly elevated. Cox regression analyses revealed no significant dose-response trends for any cancer. For all

  10. Alternative strategies to reduce maternal mortality in India: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

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    Sue J Goldie

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants. Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold ( approximately 23%-35% without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC. An integrated and stepwise approach was

  11. Alternative strategies to reduce maternal mortality in India: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J; Sweet, Steve; Carvalho, Natalie; Natchu, Uma Chandra Mouli; Hu, Delphine

    2010-04-20

    Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold ( approximately 23%-35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately prevent four of five

  12. Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Analysis in Mortality Prediction of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

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    Babińska Magdalena

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of incorrect assessment of mortality risk factors in a group of patients affected by acute coronary syndrome, due to the lack of hazard proportionality in the Cox regression model. One hundred and fifty consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and no age limit were enrolled. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed. The proportional hazard assumptions were verified using Schoenfeld residuals, χ2 test and rank correlation coefficient t between residuals and time. In the total group of 150 patients, 33 (22.0% deaths from any cause were registered in the follow-up time period of 64 months. The non-survivors were significantly older and had increased prevalence of diabetes and erythrocyturia, longer history of coronary artery disease, higher concentrations of serum creatinine, cystatin C, uric acid, glucose, C-reactive protein (CRP, homocysteine and B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, and lower concentrations of serum sodium. No significant differences in echocardiography parameters were observed between groups. The following factors were risk of death factors and fulfilled the proportional hazard assumption in the univariable model: smoking, occurrence of diabetes and anaemia, duration of coronary artery disease, and abnormal serum concentrations of uric acid, sodium, homocysteine, cystatin C and NT-proBNP, while in the multivariable model, the risk of death factors were: smoking and elevated concentrations of homocysteine and NT-proBNP. The study has demonstrated that violation of the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox regression model may lead to creating a false model that does not include only time-independent predictive factors.

  13. Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2017-08-16

    Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

  14. Impact of Health Research Systems on Under-5 Mortality Rate: A Trend Analysis

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    Bahareh Yazdizadeh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Between 1990 and 2015, under-5 mortality rate (U5MR declined by 53%, from an estimated rate of 91 deaths per 1000 live births to 43, globally. The aim of this study was to determine the share of health research systems in this decrease alongside other influential factors. Methods We used random effect regression models including the ‘random intercept’ and ‘random intercept and random slope’ models to analyze the panel data from 1990 to 2010. We selected the countries with U5MRs falling between the first and third quartiles in 1990. We used both the total articles (TA and the number of child-specific articles (CSA as a proxy of the health research system. In order to account for the impact of other factors, measles vaccination coverage (MVC (as a proxy of health system performance, gross domestic product (GDP, human development index (HDI, and corruption perception index (CPI (as proxies of development, were embedded in the model. Results Among all the models, ‘the random intercept and random slope models’ had lower residuals. The same variables of CSA, HDI, and time were significant and the coefficient of CSA was estimated at -0.17; meaning, with the addition of every 100 CSA, the rate of U5MR decreased by 17 per 1000 live births. Conclusion Although the number of CSA has contributed to the reduction of U5MR, the amount of its contribution is negligible compared to the countries’ development. We recommend entering different types of researches into the model separately in future research andincluding the variable of ‘exchange between knowledge generator and user.’

  15. Prognostic association of depression following myocardial infarction with mortality and cardiovascular events : A meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Melle, JP; de Jonge, P; Spijkerman, TA; Tijssen, JGP; Ormel, J; van Veldhuisen, DJ; van den Brink, RHS; van den Berg, MP

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To assess the association of depression following myocardial infarction (MI) and cardiovascular prognosis. Methods: The authors performed a meta-analysis of references derived from MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PSYCINFO (1975-2003) combined with crossreferencing without language restrictions. The

  16. Sarcopenia as a predictor of all-cause mortality among community-dwelling older people: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ping; Hao, Qiukui; Hai, Shan; Wang, Hui; Cao, Li; Dong, Birong

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine the association between sarcopenia and all-cause mortality among community-dwelling older people. A systematic review was performed using three electronic databases (EMBASE, MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library) to identify prospective cohort studies from January 2009 to February 2017 examining sarcopenia as a predictor of all-cause mortality among community-dwelling older people. We conducted a pooled analysis of mortality associated with sarcopenia, and subgroup analyses based on measurements of muscle mass and length of follow-up by employing a random-effects model. Sensitivity analyses were performed evaluate the cause of high heterogeneity. In addition, methodological quality, heterogeneity and publication bias were evaluated. Of 1703 studies identified, 6 studies incorporating 7367 individuals were included in the meta-analysis for all-cause mortality. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality from the combination of included studies suggested participants with sarcopenia had a significantly higher rate of mortality (pooled HR 1.60, 95%CI 1.24-2.06, I 2 =27.8%, p=0.216) than participants without sarcopenia. The subgroup analysis for length of follow-up suggested studies with a follow-up period of less than 5 years found a higher risk of all-cause mortality (pooled HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.21-3.60) than studies with a follow-up period of 5 years or more (pooled HR 1.52, 95%CI 1.14-2.01). A subgroup of anthropometric measures was found to identify higher mortality risks (pooled HR 2.26, 95%CI 1.30-3.92) than a subgroup of dual-energy x-ray (DXA) absorptiometry (pooled HR 1.82, 95%CI 1.04-3.18) factors or a subgroup of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) factors (pooled HR 1.31, 95%CI 1.15-1.49). Sarcopenia is a predictor of all-cause mortality among community-dwelling older people. Therefore, it is important to diagnose sarcopenia and to intervene, in order to reduce mortality rates in the

  17. Mortality changes after grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria: an econometric analysis from 1995 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Korenromp, Eline; Bendavid, Eran

    2015-09-28

    Since its founding in 2002, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) has become the dominant multilateral health financier in low- and middle-income countries. The health impact of the Global Fund remains unknown because existing evaluations measure intermediate outcomes or do not account for preexisting and counterfactual trends. We conducted an econometric analysis of data from all countries eligible to receive Global Fund grants from 1995 to 2010, prior to and during the Global Fund's activities. We analyzed three outcomes: all-cause adult (15-59 years), all-cause under-five, and malaria-specific under-five mortality. Our main exposure was a continuous longitudinal measure of Global Fund disbursements per capita. We used panel fixed effect regressions, and analyzed mortality trends controlling for health spending, health worker density (a measure of health system capacity), gross domestic product, urbanization, and country fixed-effects. We find that following Global Fund disbursements, adult mortality rate declined by 1.4 % per year faster with every $10 per capita increase in disbursements (p = 0.005). Similarly, malaria-specific under-five mortality declined by 6.9 % per year faster (p = 0.033) with every $10 high per capita Global Fund disbursements. However, we find no association between Global Fund support and all-cause under-five mortality. These findings were consistent after subanalyses by baseline HIV prevalence, adjusting for effects of concurrent health aid from other donors, and varying time lags between funding and mortality changes. Grants from the Global Fund are closely related to accelerated reductions in all-cause adult mortality and malaria-specific under-five mortality. However, up to 2010 the Global Fund has not measurably contributed to reducing all-cause under-five mortality.

  18. The long-term mortality impact of combined job strain and family circumstances: A life course analysis of working American mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Mejía-Guevara, Iván; Noelke, Clemens; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-12-01

    Work stress and family composition have been separately linked with later-life mortality among working women, but it is not known how combinations of these exposures impact mortality, particularly when exposure is assessed cumulatively over the life course. We tested whether, among US women, lifelong work stress and lifelong family circumstances would jointly predict mortality risk. We studied formerly working mothers in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) born 1924-1957 (n = 7352). We used sequence analysis to determine five prototypical trajectories of marriage and parenthood in our sample. Using detailed information on occupation and industry of each woman's longest-held job, we assigned each respondent a score for job control and job demands. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates by combined job demands, job control, and family status, then modeled hazard ratios for death based on family constellation, job control tertiles, and their combination. Married women who had children later in life had the lowest mortality risks (93/1000). The highest-risk family clusters were characterized by spells of single motherhood (132/1000). Generally, we observed linear relationships between job control and mortality hazard within each family trajectory. But while mortality risk was high for all long-term single mothers, we did not observe a job control-mortality gradient in this group. The highest-mortality subgroup was previously married women who became single mothers later in life and had low job control (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.38,2.63). Studies of associations between psychosocial work characteristics and health might consider heterogeneity of effects by family circumstances. Worksite interventions simultaneously considering both work and family characteristics may be most effective in reducing health risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Alcohol consumption and the risk of morbidity and mortality for different stroke types - a systematic review and meta-analysis

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    Roerecke Michael

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have suggested a complex relationship between alcohol consumption and stroke, dependent on sex, type of stroke and outcome (morbidity vs. mortality. We undertook a systematic review and a meta-analysis of studies assessing the association between levels of average alcohol consumption and relative risks of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes separately by sex and outcome. This meta-analysis is the first to explicitly separate morbidity and mortality of alcohol-attributable stroke and thus has implications for public health and prevention. Methods Using Medical Subject Headings (alcohol drinking, ethanol, cerebrovascular accident, cerebrovascular disorders, and intracranial embolism and thrombosis and the key word stroke, a literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CABS, WHOlist, SIGLE, ETOH, and Web of Science databases between 1980 to June 2009 was performed followed by manual searches of bibliographies of key retrieved articles. From twenty-six observational studies (cohort or case-control with ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes the relative risk or odds ratios or hazard ratios of stroke associated with alcohol consumption were reported; alcohol consumption was quantified; and life time abstention (manually estimated where data for current abstainers were given was used as the reference group. Two reviewers independently extracted the information on study design, participant characteristics, level of alcohol consumption, stroke outcome, control for potential confounding factors, risk estimates and key criteria of study quality using a standardized protocol. Results The dose-response relationship for hemorrhagic stroke had monotonically increasing risk for increasing consumption, whereas ischemic stroke showed a curvilinear relationship, with a protective effect of alcohol for low to moderate consumption, and increased risk for higher exposure. For more than 3 drinks on average/day, in general women had

  20. Prognostic factors of early metastasis and mortality in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma after receiving surgery : an individual patient data meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands