WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk zone design

  1. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  2. Small Orbital Launcher - Risk Zone Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Viorel CHELARU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some aspects regarding two calculus models to evaluate the risk zone of the multistage launcher. Regarding the risk zone, unlike the classic model used for the launcher, we will use a calculus model build on non-inertial frames /taking part to the diurnal rotation (Earth spin. This is necessary to link the risk zone of the launch position, and place it on the map. For the risk zone we will use actually two models: first build in start frame which is more suitable for ascensional guidance phase, and second, built in quasi – velocity frame used for unguided motion especially in descending phase. The discussions will focus around the possibility to find a launching area to be satisfactory in terms of risk conditions arising from the SOL launching.

  3. INSPIRE Natural Risk Zones Data Specification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, M.; Thomas, F.; Tomas, R.

    2012-04-01

    INSPIRE Directive (2007/2/EC) defines Natural Risk Zones theme as: "Vulnerable areas characterised according to natural hazards (all atmospheric, hydrologic, seismic, volcanic and wildfire phenomena that, because of their location, severity, and frequency, have the potential to seriously affect society), e.g. floods, landslides and subsidence, avalanches, forest fires, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions." This specification is the work of the Natural Risk Zones thematic working group. A multinational team of experts volunteered from the community of SDICs (Spatial Data Interest Communities) and LMOs (Legally Mandated Organisations) of INSPIRE. The data specification has been compiled using reference material submitted by SDICs and LMOs and the responses to a user requirements survey. The team themselves have had to draw on their own expertise and that of their organisations and other groups to develop agreed use cases in a selection of areas pertinent to Natural Risk Zones. The scope of the Natural Risk Zones data specification is potentially very large and this presentation will demonstrate this fact. Natural Risk Zones also involves significant engagement with other thematic areas from INSPIRE. This involvement stems from the nature of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. Several other thematic areas input attributes vital to understanding the nature of hazard, yet others are vital in the understanding of exposure. In working on the scope of the Natural Risk Zones theme four use cases have been created for; Floods, Landslide, Forest Fire and Earthquake. These will be used in the presentation to demonstrate the use of the data specification. The approach taken to model Natural Risk Zones is generic in its treatment of each of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, with a core model, whilst allowing extensibility to be more specific where possible and required. Flood risk is significantly more precisely defined than other hazards, due in part to the

  4. 77 FR 16661 - Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone Designations; NM; Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-22

    ... Inspection Service 9 CFR Part 77 Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone Designations; NM... tuberculosis regulations by establishing two separate zones with different tuberculosis risk classifications... INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. C. William Hench, Senior Staff Veterinarian, National Tuberculosis...

  5. Designing sustainable soils in Earth's critical zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwart, Steven Allan; de Souza, Danielle Maia; Menon, Manoj; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos; Panagos, Panos; Vala Ragnardsdottir, Kristin; Rousseva, Svelta; van Gaans, Pauline

    2014-05-01

    The demographic drivers of increasing human population and wealth are creating tremendous environmental pressures from growing intensity of land use, resulting in soil and land degradation worldwide. Environmental services are provided through multiple soil functions that include biomass production, water storage and transmission, nutrient transformations, contaminant attenuation, carbon and nitrogen storage, providing habitat and maintaining the genetic diversity of the land environment. One of the greatest challenges of the 21st century is to identify key risks to soil, and to design mitigation strategies to manage these risks and to enhance soil functions that can last into the future. The scientific study of Earth's Critical Zone (CZ), the thin surface layer that extends vertically from the top of the tree canopy to the bottom of aquifers, provides an essential integrating scientific framework to study, protect and enhance soil functions. The research hypothesis is that soil structure, the geometric architecture of solids, pores and biomass, is a critical indicator and essential factor of productive soil functions. The experimental design selects a network of Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs) as advanced field research sites along a gradient of land use intensity in order to quantify soil structure and soil processes that dictate the flows and transformations of material and energy as soil functions. The CZOs focus multidisciplinary expertise on soil processes, field observation and data interpretation, management science and ecological economics. Computational simulation of biophysical processes provides a quantitative method of integration for the range of theory and observations that are required to quantify the linkages between changes in soil structure and soil functions. Key results demonstrate that changes in soil structure can be quantified through the inputs of organic carbon and nitrogen from plant productivity and microbial activity, coupled with

  6. Solar oven for intertropical zones: Optogeometrical design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaramillo, O.A.; Huelsz, G.; Hernandez-Luna, G.; del Rio, J.A. [Centro de Investigacion en Energia. Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. Priv. Xochicalco S/N. Col. Centro. Temixco, Morelos 62580 (Mexico); Acosta, R. [Universidad de Quintana Roo, Boulevard Bahia s/n Esq. I. Comonfort, Chetumal Quintana Roo 77019 (Mexico); Arriaga, L.G. [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Av. Reforma 113, Col. Palmira, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62490 (Mexico)

    2007-10-15

    In this paper, a novel design of a solar oven for the intertropical zones is presented. The oven box has seven faces instead of the six faces of most common designs reported in the literature, two of them are alternatively used as bases. This oven has four fixed mirrors to concentrate solar energy.The main advantage of this novel design is that the oven needs only four simple movements in order to obtain an adequate solar concentration throughout the year. This feature has been possible due to the optogeometrical design that is presented. A simple theoretical model of the oven concentration is developed. According to the model, the concentration achieved by the oven at noon is greater than 1.95 for all days of the year. In order to analyze the optical performance of the solar cooker, an experimental evaluation was conducted by using a scale model of the solar cooker and a heliodon. (author)

  7. Classification of corrosion risk zones using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Nikolas; Anastasiou, Constantina; Tantele, Elia A.; Votsis, Renos A.; Danezis, Chris

    2016-08-01

    Corrosion of steel reinforcement is the major deterioration factor of the RC infrastructures. Several factors are contributing towards increasing the corrosion risk like the exposure and environmental conditions which are a function of the geographical location of the infrastructure. Information for these conditions and their affected areas can be proved valuable at design stage and/or during maintenance planning. This study aims to relate corrosion risk of RC infrastructures with their geographical location. The corrosion risk is quantified through data from NDT methods and subsequently correlated with its location. Therefore high risk areas with structures prone to corrosion deterioration are identified. The latter is implemented via GIS tools in order to create maps that describe how corrosion risk is related to the location of each structure. Two GIS methods are suggested, the grid system and the use of classified areas. Corrosion data has been collected from labs about various constructions in Cyprus and used in conjunction with GIS tools to provide useful information on corrosion identification. The outcome is a digitized map of the Limassol area which indicates the risks levels associated with corrosion of the steel reinforcement.

  8. Evaluation of rear-end crash risk at work zone using work zone traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims to evaluate the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area and merging area, as well as analyze the impacts of contributing factors by using work zone traffic data. Here, the rear-end crash risk is referred to as the probability that a vehicle is involved in a rear-end crash accident. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is used in measuring rear-end crash risk. Based on work zone traffic data in Singapore, three rear-end crash risk models are developed to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk at activity area and its contributing factors. The fourth rear-end crash risk model is developed to examine the effects of merging behavior on crash risk at merging area. The ANOVA results show that the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area is statistically different from lane positions. Model results indicate that rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area increases with heavy vehicle percentage and lane traffic flow rate. An interesting finding is that the lane closer to work zone is strongly associated with higher rear-end crash risk. A truck has much higher probability involving in a rear-end accident than a car. Further, the expressway work zone activity area is found to have much larger crash risk than arterial work zone activity area. The merging choice has the dominated effect on risk reduction, suggesting that encouraging vehicles to merge early may be the most effective method to reduce rear-end crash risk at work zone merging area.

  9. Process capability indices and risk analysis for circular position tolerance zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krystek, Michael P.

    2010-08-01

    Position tolerance is used in geometric dimensioning and tolerancing to specify tolerances for the location of holes. The tolerance zone for holes is usually cylindrical and the allowable position tolerance is the diameter of the tolerance zone. If holes are used in flat parts, as e. g. sheet metals, it is sufficient to use circular tolerance zones. In order to assure the quality and to reduce the risk to accept products which do not fulfil the design requirements, statistical process control is used in industry. In this paper it is shown, how process capability indices and the associated risk can be calculated for circular position tolerance zones.

  10. A risk-informed approach to coastal zone management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongejan, R.B.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2011-01-01

    Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These

  11. On validation of the rain climatic zone designations for Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obiyemi, O. O.; Ibiyemi, T. S.; Ojo, J. S.

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, validation of rain climatic zone classifications for Nigeria is presented based on global radio-climatic models by the International Telecommunication Union-Radiocommunication (ITU-R) and Crane. Rain rate estimates deduced from several ground-based measurements and those earlier estimated from the precipitation index on the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM) were employed for the validation exercise. Although earlier classifications indicated that Nigeria falls into zones P, Q, N, and K for the ITU-R designations, and zones E and H for Crane's climatic zone designations, the results however confirmed that the rain climatic zones across Nigeria can only be classified into four, namely P, Q, M, and N for the ITU-R designations, while the designations by Crane exhibited only three zones, namely E, G, and H. The ITU-R classification was found to be more suitable for planning microwave and millimeter wave links across Nigeria. The research outcomes are vital in boosting the confidence level of system designers in using the ITU-R designations as presented in the map developed for the rain zone designations for estimating the attenuation induced by rain along satellite and terrestrial microwave links over Nigeria.

  12. Development of climatic zones and passive solar design in Madagascar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rakoto-Joseph, O.; Randriamanantany, Z.A. [Department of Physics, University of Antananarivo, B.P. 566, Ambohitsaina (Madagascar); Garde, F.; David, M.; Adelard, L. [University of Reunion Island, L.P.B.S. (EA 4076), Faculty of Human and Environmental Science, 117 rue du General Ailleret 97430 Le Tampon Ile de La Reunion (Madagascar)

    2009-04-15

    Climate classification is extremely useful to design buildings for thermal comfort purposes. This paper presents the first work for a climate classification of Madagascar Island. This classification is based on the meteorological data measured in different cities of this country. Three major climatic zones are identified. Psychometric charts for the six urban areas of Madagascar are proposed, and suited passive solar designs related to each climate are briefly discussed. Finally, a total of three passive design zones have been identified and appropriate design strategies such as solar heating, natural ventilation, thermal mass are suggested for each zone. The specificity of this work is that: it is the first published survey on the climate classification and the passive solar designs for this developing country. (author)

  13. Determining and Designing of Pedestrian Zones in Tekirdag City Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. E. Sisman

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Today, pedestrian zones have been achieved to increase open space that are increasingly disappearing and to provide comfortable and safety circulation for pedestrians.Within this paper, the existing pedestrian zones and the streets free from traffic with adequate amenities for pedestrians are indicated and projects of alternative pedestrian zones are suggested. Hükümet Street, the main axis of the downtown and the Mimar Sinan Street is planned as one way road, besides, the part of Hükümet Street extending in front of the Governorship building is designed as pedestrian zone. Dependig on the data, projects of pedestrian zones are prepared by using AutoCAD 2006 and 3ds Max 8.

  14. 76 FR 56635 - Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone Designations; Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-14

    ... Health Inspection Service 9 CFR Part 77 Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone Designations... comments. SUMMARY: We are amending the bovine tuberculosis regulations to adjust the boundaries of the modified accredited, modified accredited advanced, and accredited-free tuberculosis risk...

  15. The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘惠敏; 苏桂武; 邓砚; 高庆华

    2004-01-01

    Shanxi Province is a region with frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards, and agrobiohazards in China. The study shows that the formation and development of the down-faulted basin zone in Shanxi Province provides an available condition for preparation and occurrence of these hazards, so that the basin zone becomes an area with frequent occurrence of the hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and waterlogging, meteorological and geologic hazards and agrobiohazards in Shanxi and with their most serious interaction and mutual intensification. Moreover, the basin zone is an area with dense population and most concentrated industrial and agricultural productions and social-economic property in Shanxi. The comprehensive effect of the two factors caused the zone to be a high natural disaster risk area in Shanxi. For reduction of natural disasters and ensuring the sustainable social-economic development in Shanxi, it is necessary to regard the basin zone as an important area for disaster reduction in Shanxi and to carry out integrated disaster reduction.

  16. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  17. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  18. Zoning the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan as to the risk of rabies among various categories of animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K; Sultanov, Akhmetzhan A; Beisembayev, Kanatzhan K; Korennoy, Fedor I; Кushubaev, Dosym B; Каdyrov, Ablaikhan S

    2016-05-31

    This paper presents the zoning of the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan with respect to the risk of rabies outbreaks in domestic and wild animals considering environmental and climatic conditions. The national database of rabies outbreaks in Kazakhstan in the period 2003-2014 has been accessed in order to find which zones are consistently most exposed to the risk of rabies in animals. The database contains information on the cases in demes of farm livestock, domestic animals and wild animals. To identify the areas with the highest risk of outbreaks, we applied the maximum entropy modelling method. Designated outbreaks were used as input presence data, while the bioclim set of ecological and climatic variables, together with some geographic factors, were used as explanatory variables. The model demonstrated a high predictive ability. The area under the curve for farm livestock was 0.782, for domestic animals -0.859 and for wild animals - 0.809. Based on the model, the map of integral risk was designed by following four categories: negligible risk (disease-free or favourable zone), low risk (surveillance zone), medium risk (vaccination zone), and high risk (unfavourable zone). The map was produced to allow developing a set of preventive measures and is expected to contribute to a better distribution of supervisory efforts from the veterinary service of the country.

  19. 14 CFR 25.1181 - Designated fire zones; regions included.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Designated fire zones; regions included. 25.1181 Section 25.1181 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... accessory section; (4) Any auxiliary power unit compartment; (5) Any fuel-burning heater and other...

  20. 14 CFR 29.1181 - Designated fire zones: regions included.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Designated fire zones: regions included. 29.1181 Section 29.1181 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF...; (5) Any fuel-burning heater and other combustion equipment installation described in § 29.859; (6...

  1. 14 CFR 23.1181 - Designated fire zones; regions included.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Designated fire zones; regions included. 23.1181 Section 23.1181 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF..., turbine, and tailpipe sections. (c) Any auxiliary power unit compartment; and (d) Any fuel-burning heater...

  2. Design and analysis of a folded Fresnel Zone Plate antenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Yu; Fujita, Masaharu

    1994-08-01

    Based on the Kirchhoff-Huygens diffraction theory, a simple analytical method of a planar folded Fresnel zone-plate (FZP), that is the case when a planar reflector is placed behind the zone plates, has been developed. According to the numerical calculation results, the design procedure of the FZP antenna has been presented, and its focusing characteristics and gain-optimized conditions have been discussed. The variations of the focal field distribution with the antenna parameters such as zone numbers, focal length and antenna diameter and the radiation power patterns of the FZP have been simulated numerically. To take a good balance of both receiving and transmitting antennas, at 60GHz operating frequency, the focal length should be designed as a half of the antenna diameter and the zone number should be from 10 to 15. The results in this work show that the folded FZP has good focal characteristics and off-axis performance, and its antenna gain can be optimized by the suitable antenna parameter design. The possibility of applying the folded FZP as a low cost and high gain antenna without strict manufacturing requirement for millimeter-wave communications has been shown.

  3. An optimal design for millimeter-wide facture plugging zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yili Kang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lost circulation control in millimeter-wide fractures has been a challenge in well drilling all the time. Low pressure-bearing capacity of a plugging zone will result in excessive consumption of lost circulation materials (LCMs and extra down time. In this study, laboratory experiments were conducted on the plugging of millimeter-wide fractures to evaluate the plugging effects of different types of LCM including rigid granules, elastic particles and fiber. Maximum plugging pressure, total loss volume before sealing and plugging time were taken as the evaluation index of the LCM plugging effect. According to the experimental results, the synergistic plugging mechanisms of different LCM combinations were also analyzed. Experimental results showed that the total loss volume of the plugging zone formed by rigid and elastic particle combination was generally greater than 400 mL, and the maximum plugging pressure of the plugging zone formed by elastic particle and fiber combination was generally less than 6 MPa. In contrast, the plugging zone formed by the combination of the three types of LCMs has the maximum plugging pressure of up to 13 MPa and total loss volume before sealing of 75 mL. In the synergistic plugging process, rigid granules form a frame with high pressure-bearing capacity in the narrower parts of the fractures; elastic particles generate elastic force through elastic deformation to increase the friction between a fracture and a plugging zone to make the plugging zone more stable; fibers filling in the pore space between the particles increase the tightness and integrity of the plugging zone. The experimental results can provide guidance for the optimal design of LCMs used in the field.

  4. Risk-Informed Selection of Steel Connections for Seismic Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De León-Escobedo D.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The findings about the fragile behavior of steel welded connections after the Northridge 1994 earthquake, specially for frames designed to withstand lateral force, has brought an amount of new attention to the design and safety issues of the welded connections for structures located on seismic zones. In México, practitioners and designers are wondering about the seismic effectiveness of the several kinds of connections as used in steel structures. A decision must be made to balance the safety required with the costs incurred after exceeding the serviceability limit state. Structural reliability techniques provide the proper framework to include the inherent uncertainties into the design process. Registered motions after the 1985 Mexico City earthquake are properly scaled according to the seismic hazard curve for soft soil in Mexico City. Earthquake occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process and the expected life-cycle cost is taken as the decision criteria. Parametric analyses allow the identification of dominant variables and ranges where one option is more recommendable than the other one. The proposed formulation may support designers and builders for the decision making process about the selection of the convenient connection type for the seismic zones with soft soil in Mexico City.

  5. Optimizing Lighting Design for Hospital Wards by Defining User Zones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Niels; Stidsen, Lone; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2011-01-01

    of lighting design in private and public settings are often not similar. The purpose of this article is therefore present a approach dividing the hospital ward in 3 user zones for patients, staff and visitors. The main user of the zone should be in control of the light scenario and thereby a refining......Studying Standard and recommendations for lighting in hospital environment its often suggest a uniform light distribution to facilitate the needs of the staff. At the same time the standards recommend a lighting design supporting the patients feeling a homely and pleasant atmosphere, and point out...... that the light should not be disrupting the patients wellbeing. These two approaches are not necessarily consistent because the right quality and quantity of light in wards is highly depending on the functionality of the space and the wished and expected lighting atmosphere of the space, and a comparison...

  6. The Arctic zone: possibilities and risks of development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Y.; Melnikovich, E.

    2016-09-01

    The authors analyze the Arctic region innovative possibilities from the perspective of political ideology and strategy. The Arctic region with its natural resources and high economic potential attracts many companies and it has become an important area of transnational development. At present, the Arctic region development is of great importance in terms of natural resource management and political system development. However, the most important development issue in the Arctic is a great risk of different countries’ competing interests in economic, political, and legal context. These are challenges for international partnership creating in the Arctic zone, Russian future model developing for the Arctic, and recognition of the Arctic as an important resource for the Russians. The Russian economic, military, and political expansion in the Arctic region has the potential to strengthen the national positions. The authors present interesting options for minimizing and eliminating political risks during the Arctic territories development and define an effective future planning model for the Russian Arctic.

  7. Delineation of Tsunami Risk Zones for Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijetunge, J. J.

    2008-12-01

    The coastal belts of several Indian Ocean countries including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand suffered massive loss of life and damage to property due to the tsunami unleashed by the great earthquake of moment magnitude 9.1-9.3 in the Andaman-Sunda subduction zone on December 26, 2004. In Sri Lanka, 13 of the 14 administrative districts lying along the coastal belt were affected: the death toll was over 35,000 with 20,000 injured and about 100,000 dwellings and other buildings either completely or partially damaged leaving half a million people homeless and causing massive disruption to livelihoods. However, it was clear in the immediate aftermath of the tsunami that the degree of damage along the coastal belt of Sri Lanka was not uniform: some areas suffered more damage, some less, and in certain other areas, often not far away, there was no damage at all. This suggests that the level of risk for coastal communities from future events of tsunami exhibits considerable variation even along a short stretch of the shoreline. The high cost and the scarcity of coastal lands in many areas demand an accurate assessment of the tsunami risk rather than arbitrary conservative zonation. Moreover, information relating to the spatial distribution of tsunami risk is essential in formulating post-tsunami coastal land use plans as well as in planning of evacuation of people during tsunami warnings. However, neither comprehensive probabilistic assessments of the tsunami hazard nor detailed information pertaining to the vulnerability of coastal communities are available at present for the coastal zone of Sri Lanka. Consequently, the methodology adopted in the present paper is to use field observations and numerical simulations of the December 2004 tsunami, which may be considered a worst-case scenario, in order to obtain the variation along the coastline of three parameters that quantify the tsunami impact. These three parameters are the tsunami height, the horizontal

  8. Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. Daanen

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP, defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.

  9. An alternative tensiometer design for deep vadose zone monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, A. B.; Kandelous, M. M.; Hopmans, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The conventional tensiometer is among the most accurate devices for soil water matric potential measurements, as well as for estimations of soil water flux from soil water potential gradients. Uncertainties associated with conventional tensiometers such as caused by ambient temperature effects and the draining of the tensiometer tube, as well as their limitation for deep soil monitoring has prevented their widespread use for vadose zone monitoring, despite their superior accuracy, in general. We introduce an alternative tensiometer design that offers the accuracy of the conventional tensiometer, while minimizing afore-mentioned uncertainties and limitations. The proposed alternative tensiometer largely eliminates temperature-induced diurnal fluctuations and uncertainties associated with the draining of the tensiometer tube, and removes the limitation in installation depth. In addition, the manufacturing costs of this alternative tensiometer design is close to that of the conventional tensiometer, while it is especially suited for monitoring of soil water potential gradients as required for soil water flux measurements.

  10. Mapping Risks Due To Storm Surges Within The Coastal Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, S.; Zimmermann, C.

    The coast protection at the Wadden Sea coastline of Lower Saxony, Germany, is mainly guaranteed by sea dikes. In case of a failure of these dikes a total area of approx. 7.130 km2 is endangered from inundation. Besides that approx. 1.3 million people and economic values of 150 billion Euro are at risk. The consequences of dike failure show a large spatial variability. However today's design of sea dikes does not take into account the spatial variability, i.e. coastal areas with high losses in case of dike failure are not protected better than those with low. In order to improve this sit- uation a scheme for risk analysis was developed and applied at the estuaries Jade and Weser including the cities Wilhelmshaven, Bremerhaven, Bremen and Cuxhaven. The scheme of risk analysis comprises on the one hand a calculation of the probability of dike failure and a determination of the area flooded in case of dike breaching and on the other hand a register of all values, i.e. houses, industrial estates and infrastructure, within the hinterland. The different steps are integrated and linked to a Geographical Information System GIS using ARCVIEW. Within the developed design scheme failure of sea dikes is related to wave overtop- ping. Therefore the probability of failure is determined from the joined probability of tidal high water-levels and waves. The statistics of latter are calculated from the wind statistics using the numerical wave model SWAN. The time dependent flooding process after dike breaches is calculated with the numer- ical model MIKE 21 HD providing information on the depth, velocity and duration of the inundation. The sensitivity of the calculations of the inundation characteristics with respect to the width of the dike breach, the surface roughness and the character- istics of the storm surge is evaluated. The inundation depth and speed is used to estimate the damage factor, i.e. the ratio of the expected loss after inundation and the maximum possible loss. The

  11. ZONING DESIGN FOR HAND­WRITTEN NUMERAL RECOGNITION

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecce Di, V.; Dimauro, G.; Guerriero, A.; Impedovo, S.; Pirlo, G.; Salzo, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the field of Optical Character Recognition (OCR), zoning is used to extract topological information from patterns. In this paper zoning is considered as the result of an optimisation problem and a new technique is presented for automatic zoning. More precisely, local analysis of feature distribut

  12. Probabilistic estimation of dune erosion and coastal zone risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, F.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal erosion has gained global attention and has been studied for many decades. As a soft sea defence structure, coastal sandy dunes protect coastal zones all over the world, which usually are densely populated areas with tremendous economic value. The coastal zone of the Netherlands, one of the

  13. 76 FR 50172 - Designation of New Grantee, Foreign-Trade Zone 41, Milwaukee, WI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-12

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board Designation of New Grantee, Foreign-Trade Zone 41, Milwaukee, WI Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of June 18, 1934, as amended (19 U.S.C. 81a-81u), and...

  14. Flood risk zoning using a rule mining based on ant colony algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chengguang; Shao, Quanxi; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zhaoli; Zhou, Xiaowen; Yang, Bing; Zhang, Lilan

    2016-11-01

    Risk assessment is a preliminary step in flood management and mitigation, and risk zoning provides a quantitative measure of flood risk. The difficulty in flood risk zoning is to deal with the complicated non-linear relationship among indices and risk levels. To solve this problem, the ant colony algorithm based on rule mining (Ant-Miner) is promoted in this paper to map the regional flood risk at grid scale. For the case study in the Dongjiang River Basin in Southern China, 11 and 14 indices (without and with the socio-economic indices considered) are respectively chosen to construct the zoning model based on Ant-Miner. The results show that Ant-Miner exhibits higher accuracy and more simple rules that can be used to generate flood risk zoning map quickly and easily than decision tree method (DT); compared to random forest (RF) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), Ant-Miner has significant advantages both in implementation step-reducing and computing time-saving. Although the comprehensive measure and natural hazard measure of flood risk distributed similarly over the entire region, the former one which considered the socio-economic indices is more reasonable in term of real impact to natural and socio-economy. The areas with high-risk level obtained in this paper matched well with the integrated risk zoning map and the inundation areas of historical floods, suggesting that the proposed Ant-Miner method is capable of zoning the flood risk at grid scale. This study shows the potential to provide a novel and successful approach to flood risk zoning. Evaluation results provide a reference for flood risk management, prevention, and reduction of natural disasters in the study basin.

  15. Does moving from war zone change emotions and risk perceptions? A field study of Israeli students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shosh Shahrabani

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The current field study uses data collected after the 2009 war between Israel and the Hamas militias in the Gaza Strip ended. The study compares recalled emotions and perceived risks among two groups of students, all of whom were exposed to rocket attacks. Individuals in the ``left the war zone'' group left the region under attack as a precautionary action, while the ``stayed in the war zone'' group remained in the region during war. The results indicate no significant differences in the levels of recalled fear and anger between the two groups, while the perceived self-risk from terror was higher among the ``stayed in the war zone'' group. Yet, a higher level of recalled fear was found among those who left the war zone and whose parents resided in the war zone, compared to those who left the war zone and whose parents resided outside the war zone. In addition, fearful people became more pessimistic about their level of personal risk from terror, but not about the routine risks. We conclude that civilians need attention even if they leave the war zone since leaving the attacked region as a precautionary action may mitigate perceived self-risk from terror but does not seem to eliminate the high level of negative emotions evoked by the terror attacks.

  16. Improved Zone Plate Coded Imaging Technique by Using Four Special Designed Gabor Zone Plates

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO Lei-Feng; SHEN Yu-Ji; ZHENG Zhi-Jian; DING Yong-Kun

    2005-01-01

    @@ Direct-current component, high-order artifacts, and side lobe distortion provide serious drawbacks in the application of Fresnel zone plate coded imaging (ZPCI).The presentation provided here proposes a novel way to resolve all the above-mentioned problems.Four different Gabor zone plates are suggested to substitute the one Fresnel zone plate used in the conventional ZPCI.Perfect reconstruction will be obtained when integrally analysing the four coded images.Primary numerical simulation provided here shows good result.

  17. Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAI Liping; WANG Yeyao; SUN Jiali; GONG Bin

    2009-01-01

    The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow

  18. [Future built-up area zoning by applying the methodology for assessing the population health risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobkova, T E

    2009-01-01

    Using the methodology for assessing the population health risk provides proposals on the functional zoning of the reorganized area of a plastics-works. An area has been allocated for possible house-building.

  19. Model and Method of Debris Flow Risk Zoning Based on Momentum Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEI Fangqiang; ZHANG Yu; HU Kaiheng; GAO Kechang

    2006-01-01

    A model of debris flow risk zoning is carried out with momentum analysis of debris flow. This model zones the debris flow inundation fan with density and velocity calculated by numerical simulation. The risk classification standard is determined according to the ultimate bearing capacities of different structures under impacting. And the ultimate bearing capacities are tested by impact failure experiment of destruction. Two structures typical in Chinese mountain towns, reinforced concrete frame construction and brickwork with concrete, are chosen in the experiment. The model makes debris flow risk zoning quantitative and the results comparable widely. The results differ much from that of other methods especially in the identification of medium and low risk zones.

  20. Development and prototype application of an oil spill risk analysis in a coastal zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the development of a methodology for performance of oil spill risk analysis in coastal zones through a prototype application. The main objective of the research effort is to develop the basis for a tool that can assess risks due to the occurrence of an oil spill event aiming at

  1. Development and prototype application of an oil spill risk analysis in a coastal zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces the development of a methodology for performance of oil spill risk analysis in coastal zones through a prototype application. The main objective of the research effort is to develop the basis for a tool that can assess risks due to the occurrence of an oil spill event aiming at

  2. [GIS-based forest fire risk zone mapping in Daxing'an Mountains].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Haiwei; Kong, Fanhua; Li, Xiuzhen

    2005-05-01

    In this study, the Yuying and Fendou forest farms of Tuqiang Forest Bureau in Daxing'an Mountains were chosen as test areas, and their vegetation type, altitude, slop, aspect, and settlement buffer were selected as the main forest fire factors. The circumstances of forest fire risk were quantified by the factor-weights union method with the support of GIS. Four classes of forest fire risk ranging from low to extreme were generated. The none-, low, moderate, high, and extremely high fire risk zones accounted for 0.37%, 0.63%, 38.67%, 58.63% and 1.70%, respectively, which was in corresponding with normal distribution. About 60.33% of the test areas were predicted to be upper moderate risk zones, indicating that the forest fire management task in these areas is super onerous. There was an obvious regional difference in the distribution of forest fire risk zones, being higher in the center and lower around the center, and the difference in fire factors was also obvious. The GIS-based forest fire risk model of test areas strongly cohered with the actual fire-affected sites in 1987, which suggested that the forest fire risk zone mapping had a higher reliability, and could be used as the reference and guidance of forest fire management.

  3. A CDT-Based Heuristic Zone Design Approach for Economic Census Investigators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changixu Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses a special zone design problem for economic census investigators that is motivated by a real-world application. This paper presented a heuristic multikernel growth approach via Constrained Delaunay Triangulation (CDT. This approach not only solved the barriers problem but also dealt with the polygon data in zoning procedure. In addition, it uses a new heuristic method to speed up the zoning process greatly on the premise of the required quality of zoning. At last, two special instances for economic census were performed, highlighting the performance of this approach.

  4. On the Determinants of Equity International Risk Premium: Are Emerging Zones Different?

    OpenAIRE

    Khaled Guesmi; Ilyes Abid; Mohamed Hedi Arouri; Frédéric Teulon

    2013-01-01

    This article contributes to the financial literature by investigating the formation of the international stock risk premium in emerging market zones. Our results from the estimation of a dynamic augmented capital asset pricing model show that the currency risk premium is the most important component of the total premium followed by the global market premium. As for the regional risk, our findings show that it is significantly priced for all studied emerging regions but its contribution to the...

  5. Auroral Electrojet Index Designed to Provide a Global Measure, Hourly Intervals, of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Auroral Electrojet (AE) index is designed to provide a global quantitative measure of auroral zone magnetic activity produced by enhanced ionospheric currents...

  6. Assessing emergency planning zone for new nuclear power plant considering risk of extreme external events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alzbutas, Robertas

    2015-04-01

    In general, the Emergency Planning Zones (EPZ) are defined as well as plant site and arrangement structures are designed to minimize the potential for natural and manmade hazards external to the plant from affecting the plant safety related functions, which can affect nearby population and environment. This may include consideration of extreme winds, fires, flooding, aircraft crash, seismic activity, etc. Thus the design basis for plant and site is deeply related to the effects of any postulated external events and the limitation of the plant capability to cope with accidents i.e. perform safety functions. It has been observed that the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methodologies to deal with EPZ and extreme external events have not reached the same level of maturity as for severe internal events. The design basis for any plant and site is deeply related to the effects of any postulated external events and the limitation of the plant capability to cope with accidents i.e. perform safety functions. As a prime example of an advanced reactor and new Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) with enhanced safety, the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) and Site selection for New NPP in Lithuania had been considered in this work. In the used Safety-by-Design™ approach, the PSA played obviously a key role; therefore a Preliminary IRIS PSA had been developed along with the design. For the design and pre-licensing process of IRIS the external events analysis included both qualitative evaluation and quantitative assessment. As a result of preliminary qualitative analyses, the external events that were chosen for more detailed quantitative scoping evaluation were high winds and tornadoes, aircraft crash, and seismic events. For the site selection in Lithuania a detail site evaluation process was performed and related to the EPZ and risk zoning considerations. In general, applying the quantitative assessment, bounding site characteristics could be used in order to

  7. Risk Assessment and Zoning of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Heilongjiang Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Kai; CHEN Hong; ZHANG Li-juan; GAO Yu-hong

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we first zoned the drought degree in the years from 1971 to 2000 in Heilongjiang Province by using precipitation anomaly equation as an indicator, and analyzed the temporal distribution characteristics and laws of arid disaster in different periods. Using the method of human being habitat risk assessment, we further studied and zoned the drought disaster risk index(DDRI) of maize cultivated in 74 stations in Heilongjiang Province via GIS software. The results showed that (1) the occurrence frequency of moderate and heavy drought in Heilongjiang Province was 1970s >1990s > 1980s, and (2) the high risk area of drought disaster for maize production mainly assembled in Qiqihar and Daqing regions in west Heilongjiang Province, where agricultural drought should be highly concerned, while low risk and slight risk areas mainly distribute in middle areas and east plain areas in Heilongjiang Province. Our study provided basis for the defense of agricultural drought disaster.

  8. Method and its application of the momentum model for debris flow risk zoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In order to ascertain the distribution of flow depth and velocity of debris flow, the combination of numerical modeling and the GIS technology has been used to simulate the movement process of debris flow out of the outlet. The main model of momentum classification of risk zoning of debris flow is Z=Khv. Based on the distribution of the velocity and depth of debris flow, the distribution of momentum can be ascertained. Thereby the classification of risk zoning of debris flow can be worked out. A case study of Chacaito Valley in Caracas, Venezuela, is presented to illustrate the application of the method.

  9. Analysis of work zone rear-end crash risk for different vehicle-following patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang; Yan, Xuedong

    2014-11-01

    This study evaluates rear-end crash risk associated with work zone operations for four different vehicle-following patterns: car-car, car-truck, truck-car and truck-truck. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is adopted to measure work zone rear-end crash risk. Results show that the car-truck following pattern has the largest rear-end crash risk, followed by truck-truck, truck-car and car-car patterns. This implies that it is more likely for a car which is following a truck to be involved in a rear-end crash accident. The statistical test results further confirm that rear-end crash risk is statistically different between any two of the four patterns. We therefore develop a rear-end crash risk model for each vehicle-following pattern in order to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, including lane position, the heavy vehicle percentage, lane traffic flow and work intensity which can be characterized by the number of lane reductions, the number of workers and the amount of equipment at the work zone site. The model results show that, for each pattern, there will be a greater rear-end crash risk in the following situations: (i) heavy work intensity; (ii) the lane adjacent to work zone; (iii) a higher proportion of heavy vehicles and (iv) greater traffic flow. However, the effects of these factors on rear-end crash risk are found to vary according to the vehicle-following patterns. Compared with the car-car pattern, lane position has less effect on rear-end crash risk in the car-truck pattern. The effect of work intensity on rear-end crash risk is also reduced in the truck-car pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  11. RS AND GIS-BASED FOREST FIRE RISK ZONE MAPPING IN DA HINGGAN MOUNTAINS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Hai-wei; KONG Fan-hua; LI Xiu-zhen

    2004-01-01

    The Da Hinggan Mountains is one of the most important forest areas in China,but forest fire there is also of high frequency.So it is completely necessary to map forest fire risk zones in order to effectively manage and protect the forest resources.Two forest farms of Tuqiang Forest Bureau (53°34′-52°15′N,124°05′- 122°18′E) were chosen as typical areas in this study.Remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) play a vital role and can be used effectively to obtain and combine different forest-fire-causing factors for demarcating the forest fire risk zone map.Forest fire risk zones were described by assigning subjective weights to the classes of all the coverage layers according to their sensitivity to fire,using the ARC/INFO GIS software.Four classes of forest fire risk ranging from low to extremely high were generated automatically in ARC/INFO.The results showed that about 60.33% of the study area were predicted to be upper moderate risk zones,indicating that the forest fire management task in this area is super onerous.The RS and GIS-based forest fire risk model of the study area was found to be highly compatible with the actual fire-affected sites in 1987.Therefore the forest fire risk zone map can be used for guidance of forest fire management,and as basis for fire prevention strategies.

  12. Absolute cardiovascular risk in a Fiji medical zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyaneshwar, Rajat; Naidu, Swaran; Raban, Magdalena Z; Naidu, Sheetal; Linhart, Christine; Morrell, Stephen; Tukana, Isimeli; Taylor, Richard

    2016-02-09

    The population of Fiji has experienced emergence of non-communicable disease (NCD) and a plateau in life expectancy over the past 20 years. A mini-STEPS survey (n = 2765) was conducted in Viseisei in Western Fiji to assess NCD risk factors (RFs) in i-Taukei (Melanesians) and those of Indian descent aged 25-64 years (response 73 %). Hypertension (HT) was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or on medication for HT; type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication for T2DM; and obesity as a body mass index (kilograms/height(metres)(2)) ≥30. Data were age-adjusted to 2007 Fiji Census. Associations between RFs and ethnicity/education were investigated. Comparisons with Fiji STEPS surveys were undertaken, and the absolute risk of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event/death in 10 years was estimated from multiple RF charts. NCD/RFs increased with age except excessive alcohol intake and daily smoking (women) which declined. Daily smoking was higher in men 33 % (95 % confidence interval: 31-36) than women 14 % (12-116); women were more obese 40 % (37-43) than men 23 % (20-26); HT was similar in men 37 % (34-40) and women 34 % (31-36), as was T2DM in men 15 % (13-17) and women 17 % (15-19). i-Taukei men had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.41 (0.28-0.58) for T2DM compared to Indians (1.00); and i-Taukei (both sexes) had a higher OR for obesity and low fruit/vegetable intake, daily smoking, excessive alcohol intake and HT in females. Increasing education correlated with lesser smoking, but with higher obesity and lower fruit/vegetable intake. Compared to the 2011 Fiji STEPS survey, no significant differences were evident in obesity, HT or T2DM prevalences. The proportion (40-64 years) classified at high or very high risk (≥20 %) of a CVD event/death (over 10 years) based on multiple RFs was 8.3 % for men (8.1 % i-Taukei, 8.5 % Indian), and 6.7 % for women (7.9 % i-Taukei, 6.0 % Indian). The results

  13. [Climatic risk zoning for banana and litchi's chilling injury in South China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Huo, Zhi-guo; He, Nan; Xiao, Jing-jing; Wen, Quan-pei

    2010-05-01

    Based on the 1951-2006 climatic observation data from 224 meteorological stations in South China (Guangdong Province, Guangxi Autonomous Region, and Fujian Province) and the historical information about the chilling injury losses of banana and litchi, the accumulated harmful chilling for the processes with minimum daily temperature zoning for banana and litchi's chilling injury were drawn, and the spatial variation of climatic risk for banana and litchi's chilling injury was commented. The results indicated that in the study area, climate warming might lead to the decrease of cold resistance of banana and litchi, which could increase the disaster risk of chilling injury. The geographical distribution of climatic risk probability for banana and litchi's chilling injury showed a zonal pattern. According to the integrated climatic risk index, the banana and litchi's chilling injury region was divided into three risk types, i.e., high risk, moderate risk, and low risk, which provided an important basis for the adjustment of agricultural production structure.

  14. Permafrost Degradation Risk Zone Assessment using Simulation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daanen, R.P.; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Marchenko, S.;

    2011-01-01

    In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures...... to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined...... as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland...

  15. An analysis of bioclimatic zones and implications for design of outdoor built environments in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoud, Ayman Hassaan A. [Department of Architecture Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza 12211 (Egypt); Department of Architecture Engineering, The British University in Egypt, El-Sherouk City (Egypt)

    2011-03-15

    Climate considerations are essential dimensions in the assessment of quality of outdoor built environments. This paper provides an analysis of bioclimatic classification of Egypt to help the environmental design of wide range of purposes, including: climate responsive design; energy conservation and thermal comfort in the outdoor built environments. The analysis of this classification uses a bioclimatic approach in which the comfort zone and monthly climatic lines were determined and plotted on the psychrometric chart. Since the mean radiant temperature (T{sub mrt}) is the most important input parameter for the energy balance in outdoor environments, the charts apply the ASHRAE 55-2004 standard considering the operative temperature as a function of T{sub mrt}. Analysis for each bioclimatic zone determines the potential of passive design strategies to maintain thermal comfort in outdoor spaces and to contribute to energy efficient built environment. Finally, this study suggests a design guideline matrix for landscape architectural design for the different bioclimatic zones. (author)

  16. A Review on Courtyard Design Criteria in Different Climatic Zones

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    based on literature review. Journals .... Courtyards Design Shapes on Solar Heat gain and Energy Efficiency according to. Different ..... Journal of Cleaner Production, 61, 89–99. ... traits on recreation types - The Case of Vietnam Tourism.

  17. Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

    2017-02-01

    Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy. The systematic review covers scientific research published between January 1995 and April 2016, drawn from the following databases: Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, ERIC, Medline, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were investigation of the effect of numeracy and/or graph literacy, and investigation of the effect of visual aids or comparison of their effect with that of numerical information. Thirty-six publications met the criteria, providing data on 27,885 diverse participants from 60 countries. Results Transparent visual aids robustly improved risk understanding in diverse individuals by encouraging thorough deliberation, enhancing cognitive self-assessment, and reducing conceptual biases in memory. Improvements in risk understanding consistently produced beneficial changes in attitudes, behavioral intentions, trust, and healthy behaviors. Visual aids were found to be particularly beneficial for vulnerable and less skilled individuals. Conclusion Well-designed visual aids tend to be highly effective tools for improving informed decision making among diverse decision makers. We identify five categories of practical, evidence-based guidelines for heuristic evaluation and design of effective visual aids.

  18. Vaccine Hesitancy: In Search of the Risk Communication Comfort Zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joshua; Dubé, Eve; Driedger, Michelle

    2017-03-03

    This paper reports the findings of a national online survey to parents of children aged 5 and younger. The objectives of the study were to assess parental understanding of childhood immunizations, identify sources of information that they trust for vaccine-related content, assess where parents with young children stand on the key issues in the public debate about vaccination, and identify which risk communication messages are most effective for influencing the behaviours of vaccine hesitant parents. A total of 1,000 surveys (closed and open-ended questions) were administered in November 2015 using the Angus Reid Forum Panel, a key consumer panel consisting of approximately 150,000 Canadian adults aged 18 and older, spread across all geographic regions of Canada. Approximately 92% of the Canadian parents surveyed consider vaccines safe and effective, and trust doctors and public health officials to provide timely and credible vaccine-related information. However, a concerning number of them either believe or are uncertain whether there is a link between vaccines and autism (28%), worry that vaccines might seriously harm their children (27%), or believe the pharmaceutical industry is behind the push for mandatory immunization (33%). Moreover, despite the common assumption that social media are becoming the go-to source of health news and information, most parents still rely on traditional media and official government websites for timely and credible information about vaccines and vaccine preventable diseases, particularly during community-based disease outbreaks. Finally, parents reported high levels of support for pro-vaccine messaging that has been demonstrated in previous research to have little to no positive impact on behaviour change, and may even be counterproductive. The study's results are highly relevant in a context where public health officials are expending significant resources to increase rates of childhood immunization and combat vaccine

  19. Vaccine Hesitancy: In Search of the Risk Communication Comfort Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joshua; Dubé, Eve; Driedger, Michelle

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This paper reports the findings of a national online survey to parents of children aged 5 and younger. The objectives of the study were to assess parental understanding of childhood immunizations, identify sources of information that they trust for vaccine-related content, assess where parents with young children stand on the key issues in the public debate about vaccination, and identify which risk communication messages are most effective for influencing the behaviours of vaccine hesitant parents. Methods: A total of 1,000 surveys (closed and open-ended questions) were administered in November 2015 using the Angus Reid Forum Panel, a key consumer panel consisting of approximately 150,000 Canadian adults aged 18 and older, spread across all geographic regions of Canada. Results: Approximately 92% of the Canadian parents surveyed consider vaccines safe and effective, and trust doctors and public health officials to provide timely and credible vaccine-related information. However, a concerning number of them either believe or are uncertain whether there is a link between vaccines and autism (28%), worry that vaccines might seriously harm their children (27%), or believe the pharmaceutical industry is behind the push for mandatory immunization (33%). Moreover, despite the common assumption that social media are becoming the go-to source of health news and information, most parents still rely on traditional media and official government websites for timely and credible information about vaccines and vaccine preventable diseases, particularly during community-based disease outbreaks. Finally, parents reported high levels of support for pro-vaccine messaging that has been demonstrated in previous research to have little to no positive impact on behaviour change, and may even be counterproductive. Discussion: The study’s results are highly relevant in a context where public health officials are expending significant resources to increase rates of

  20. Optimizing Lighting Design for Hospital Wards by Defining User Zones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Niels; Stidsen, Lone; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2011-01-01

    Studying Standard and recommendations for lighting in hospital environment its often suggest a uniform light distribution to facilitate the needs of the staff. At the same time the standards recommend a lighting design supporting the patients feeling a homely and pleasant atmosphere, and point ou...

  1. Mechanical design of multiple zone plates precision alignment apparatus for hard X-ray focusing in twenty-nanometer scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Deming; Liu, Jie; Gleber, Sophie C.; Vila-Comamala, Joan; Lai, Barry; Maser, Jorg M.; Roehrig, Christian; Wojcik, Michael J.; Vogt, Franz Stefan

    2017-04-04

    An enhanced mechanical design of multiple zone plates precision alignment apparatus for hard x-ray focusing in a twenty-nanometer scale is provided. The precision alignment apparatus includes a zone plate alignment base frame; a plurality of zone plates; and a plurality of zone plate holders, each said zone plate holder for mounting and aligning a respective zone plate for hard x-ray focusing. At least one respective positioning stage drives and positions each respective zone plate holder. Each respective positioning stage is mounted on the zone plate alignment base frame. A respective linkage component connects each respective positioning stage and the respective zone plate holder. The zone plate alignment base frame, each zone plate holder and each linkage component is formed of a selected material for providing thermal expansion stability and positioning stability for the precision alignment apparatus.

  2. Mechanical design of multiple zone plates precision alignment apparatus for hard X-ray focusing in twenty-nanometer scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Deming; Liu, Jie; Gleber, Sophie C.; Vila-Comamala, Joan; Lai, Barry; Maser, Jorg M.; Roehrig, Christian; Wojcik, Michael J.; Vogt, Franz Stefan

    2017-04-04

    An enhanced mechanical design of multiple zone plates precision alignment apparatus for hard x-ray focusing in a twenty-nanometer scale is provided. The precision alignment apparatus includes a zone plate alignment base frame; a plurality of zone plates; and a plurality of zone plate holders, each said zone plate holder for mounting and aligning a respective zone plate for hard x-ray focusing. At least one respective positioning stage drives and positions each respective zone plate holder. Each respective positioning stage is mounted on the zone plate alignment base frame. A respective linkage component connects each respective positioning stage and the respective zone plate holder. The zone plate alignment base frame, each zone plate holder and each linkage component is formed of a selected material for providing thermal expansion stability and positioning stability for the precision alignment apparatus.

  3. Design of extended viewing zone at autostereoscopic 3D display based on diffusing optical element

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min Chang; Hwang, Yong Seok; Hong, Suk-Pyo; Kim, Eun Soo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper, to realize a non-glasses type 3D display as next step from the current glasses-typed 3D display, it is suggested that a viewing zone is designed for the 3D display using DOE (Diffusing Optical Element). Viewing zone of proposed method is larger than that of the current parallax barrier method or lenticular method. Through proposed method, it is shown to enable the expansion and adjustment of the area of viewing zone according to viewing distance.

  4. The integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 years of summer temperature and precipitation data from 74 meteorological stations from 1971 through 2005.The information-diffusion theory has been used extensively in risk assessment,yet almost no one has done research about risk assessment by information-diffusion theory based on meteorological disaster standards.Some research results are as follows:the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region;the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwestern region is the highest;the risk probability of serious low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest,followed by the central and southeast region;the high-risk region of arid disaster in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located in the southwestern,central,and southern parts of the province;the high-intensity arid disaster was located in the south-eastern region;the high-risk region of flood in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located from the southwest and then across the central part to the western part of Heilongjiang Province;the high-intensity flood disasters were located in almost every part of Heilongjiang Province.We can conclude from the integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning that the high-risk region of mete-orological disaster is primarily located in the southern and northern part of the province,the moderate-risk region is distributed in the central southern region and western region,the low-risk region is located in the eastern part,and the light-risk region is located in the central western part of Heilongjiang Province.

  5. GIS-based Risk Zone of Flood Hazard in Anhui Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the flood disaster risks in Anhui Province based on GIS. [Method] Taking country as basic unit, the 1∶ 250 000 basic geographic data in Anhui Province as basis, from the angle of flood disaster hazard and economic vulnerability, and by dint of the calculation of the weight of each impact factor with entropy-based fuzzy AHP method, flood risk assessment model was established to study the flood disaster risks zoning in Anhui Province. Using nearly 10 years of disaster informat...

  6. [Importance of the definition of urban zones in the study of cancer risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottier, D; Launoy, G; Le Coutour, X; Dugleux, G; Gignoux, M

    1989-01-01

    1446 cases of colorectal cancer have been collected in the Registry of digestive tract tumours in the "Department" of Calvados with the aim of studying the effect of residential location on cancer incidence. The risk-ratio was different in males and in females and between different types of urban areas. Using the urban category of "Zone de Peuplement Industriel ou Urbain" (ZPIU) increased the observed risk-ratio (1.6 for males, 1.2 for females), and enabled definition of homogeneous populations. This improved classification, thus allowed a more discriminating analysis of the effect of residential location on risk of cancer in both sexes.

  7. Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Staveren, Martinus Theodorus

    2009-01-01

    This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is

  8. Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staveren, van Martinus Theodorus

    2009-01-01

    This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is defi

  9. Designing Zoning of Remote Sensing Drones for Urban Applications: a Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norzailawati, M. N.; Alias, A.; Akma, R. S.

    2016-06-01

    This paper discusses on-going research related to zoning regulation for the remote sensing drone in the urban applications. Timestamped maps are presented here follow a citation-based approach, where significant information is retrieved from the scientific literature. The emergence of drones in domestic air raises lots understandable issues on privacy, security and uncontrolled pervasive surveillance that require a careful and alternative solution. The effective solution is to adopt a privacy and property rights approach that create a drone zoning and clear drone legislatures. In providing a differential trend to other reviews, this paper is not limited to drones zoning and regulations, but also, discuss on trend remote sensing drones specification in designing a drone zones. Remote sensing drone will specific according to their features and performances; size and endurance, maximum airspeed and altitude level and particular references are made to the drones range. The implementation of laws zoning could lie with the urban planners whereby, a zoning for drone could become a new tactic used to specify areas, where drones could be used, will provide remedies for the harm that arise from drones, and act as a different against irresponsible behaviour. Finally, underlines the need for next regulations on guidelines and standards which can be used as a guidance for urban decision makers to control the drones' operating, thus ensuring a quality and sustainability of resilience cities simultaneously encouraging the revolution of technology.

  10. Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan S.; Ludwig, Kristin A.; Bekins, Barbara; Brocher, Thomas M.; Brock, John C.; Brothers, Daniel; Chaytor, Jason D.; Frankel, Arthur; Geist, Eric L.; Haney, Matt; Hickman, Stephen H.; Leith, William S.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Schulz, William H.; Sisson, Thomas W.; Wallace, Kristi; Watt, Janet; Wein, Anne

    2017-06-19

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public.Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners.The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs:High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure;Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain);New tools

  11. New insight into the levels, distribution and health risk diagnosis of indoor and outdoor dust-bound FRs in colder, rural and industrial zones of Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Usman; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan; Malik, Riffat Naseem

    2016-09-01

    This is the first robust study designed to probe selected flame retardants (FRs) in the indoor and outdoor dust of industrial, rural and background zones of Pakistan with special emphasis upon their occurrence, distribution and associated health risk. For this purpose, we analyzed FRs such as polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), dechlorane plus (DP), novel brominated flame retardants (NBFRs) and organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) in the total of 82 dust samples (indoor and outdoor) collected three from each zone: industrial, rural and background. We found higher concentrations of FRs (PBDEs, DP, NBFRs and OPFRs) in industrial zones as compared to the rural and background zones. Our results reveal that the concentrations of studied FRs are relatively higher in the indoor dust samples being compared with the outdoor dust and they are ranked as: ∑OPFRs > ∑NBFRs > ∑PBDEs > ∑DP. A significant correlation in the FRs levels between the indoor and outdoor dust suggest the potential intermixing of these compounds between them. The principal component analysis/multiple linear regression predicts the percent contribution of FRs from different consumer products in the indoor and outdoor dust of industrial, rural and background zones to trace their source origin. The FRs detected in the background zones reveal the dust-bound FRs suspended in the air might be shifted from different warmer zones or consumers products available/used in the same zones. Hazard quotient (HQ) for FRs via indoor and outdoor dust intake at mean and high dust scenarios to the exposed populations (adults and toddlers) are found free of risk (HQ Pakistan.

  12. Spatiotemporal distribution of dengue vectors & identification of high risk zones in district Sonitpur, Assam, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Momi; Gopalakrishnan, Reji; Kumar, Dharmendra; Gayan, Jyotsna; Baruah, Indra; Veer, Vijay; Dutta, Prafulla

    2014-01-01

    Background & objectives: Dengue is an arboviral disease of public health importance in many parts of India and recently many cases have been reported from northeastern India. Aedes mosquitoes, which are the vectors of dengue, are widely prevalent in the region. A study was initiated in Sonitpur district of Assam to understand the spatiotemporal distribution and seasonal prevalence of dengue vectors and to identify the high risk zones. Methods: Ovitrap surveys were conducted in three randomly selected villages under each of the eight public health centres (PHC) in district Sonitpur of Assam, northeastern India during March 2011 - February 2012. Three risk zones (high, medium and low) were identified on the basis of per trap density of Aedes mosquitoes. Meteorological data were collected to study the temporal distribution of dengue vectors. Results: Aedes albopictus (99.3%) was the predominant dengue vector followed by Ae. aegypti (0.7%) recorded in the ovitraps. The highest vector density was observed during the post-monsoon (60.1 ± 18 per trap) while the lowest during the winter (7.6 ± 4.9 per trap) and the season-wise differences in the vector density were significant (P=0.005). Maximum temperature (correlation coefficient, r = 0.45) and minimum temperature (r = 0.408) showed the highest positive correlation with the vector density, whereas the number of rainy days showed high positive correlation (r = 0.185) than the total rainfall (r = 0.117). The high risk zone (Dekhiajuli, Behali, Bihaguri and Gohpur PHC) as indicated by the high larval densities of dengue vectors, 45.3 ± 18, 42.1 ± 22.3, 36.9 ± 29.1, 35.3 ± 22.6 per trap, respectively, was validated by dengue epidemiological data collected during 2012. Interpretation & conclusions: Yearlong monitoring of dengue vectors was done for the first time in this region. Monthly maximum temperature and the number of rainy days could be used for the prediction of larval density of Aedes mosquitoes. The

  13. Spatiotemporal distribution of dengue vectors & identification of high risk zones in district Sonitpur, Assam, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momi Das

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Dengue is an arboviral disease of public health importance in many parts of India and recently many cases have been reported from northeastern India. Aedes mosquitoes, which are the vectors of dengue, are widely prevalent in the region. A study was initiated in Sonitpur district of Assam to understand the spatiotemporal distribution and seasonal prevalence of dengue vectors and to identify the high risk zones. Methods: Ovitrap surveys were conducted in three randomly selected villages under each of the eight public health centres (PHC in district Sonitpur of Assam, northeastern India during March 2011 - February 2012. Three risk zones (high, medium and low were identified on the basis of per trap density of Aedes mosquitoes. Meteorological data were collected to study the temporal distribution of dengue vectors. Results: Aedes albopictus (99.3% was the predominant dengue vector followed by Ae. aegypti (0.7% recorded in the ovitraps. The highest vector density was observed during the post-monsoon (60.1 ± 18 per trap while the lowest during the winter (7.6 ± 4.9 per trap and the season-wise differences in the vector density were significant ( p0 =0.005. Maximum temperature (correlation coefficient, r = 0.45 and minimum temperature (r = 0.408 showed the highest positive correlation with the vector density, whereas the number of rainy days showed high positive correlation (r = 0.185 than the total rainfall (r = 0.117. The high risk zone (Dekhiajuli, Behali, Bihaguri and Gohpur PHC as indicated by the high larval densities of dengue vectors, 45.3 ± 18, 42.1 ± 22.3, 36.9 ± 29.1, 35.3 ± 22.6 per trap, respectively, was validated by dengue epidemiological data collected during 2012. Interpretation & conclusions: Yearlong monitoring of dengue vectors was done for the first time in this region. Monthly maximum temperature and the number of rainy days could be used for the prediction of larval density of Aedes mosquitoes. The

  14. Software design for professional risk evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, V.; Calea, G.; Amza, G.; Iacobescu, G.; Nitoi, D.; Dimitrescu, A.

    2016-08-01

    Professional risk evaluation represents a complex activity involving each economic operator, with important repercussion upon health and security in work. Article represents an innovative study method, regarding professional risk analyze in which cumulative working posts are evaluated. Work presents a new software that helps in putting together all the working positions from a complex organizational system and analyzing them in order to evaluate the possible risks. Using this software, a multiple analysis can be done like: risk estimation, risk evaluation, estimation of residual risks and finally searching of risk reduction measures.

  15. Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the importance of Risk Informed Design (RID) as an important feature of the systems engineering process. RID is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity such as mass, volume, cost or power. It also reviews Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as it is used in the product life cycle in the development of NASA's Constellation Program.

  16. Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borup Birthe

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, much attention has been given to the spread of influenza around the world. With the continuing human outbreak of H5N1 beginning in 2003 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, focus on influenza and other respiratory viruses has been increased. It has been accepted for decades that international travel via jet aircraft is a major vector for global spread of influenza, and epidemiological differences between tropical and temperate regions observed. Thus we wanted to study how indoor environmental conditions (enclosed locations in the tropics and winter temperate zones contribute to the aerosol spread of influenza by travelers. To this end, a survey consisting of 632 readings of temperature (T versus relative humidity (RH in 389 different enclosed locations air travelers are likely to visit in 8 tropical nations were compared to 102 such readings in 2 Australian cities, including ground transport, hotels, shops, offices and other publicly accessible locations, along with 586 time course readings from aircraft. Results An influenza transmission risk contour map was developed for T versus RH. Empirical equations were created for estimating: 1. risk relative to temperature and RH, and 2. time parameterized influenza transmission risk. Using the transmission risk contours and equations, transmission risk for each country's locations was compared with influenza reports from the countries. Higher risk enclosed locations in the tropics included new automobile transport, luxury buses, luxury hotels, and bank branches. Most temperate locations were high risk. Conclusion Environmental control is recommended for public health mitigation focused on higher risk enclosed locations. Public health can make use of the methods developed to track potential vulnerability to aerosol influenza. The methods presented can also be used in influenza modeling. Accounting for differential aerosol transmission using T and RH can potentially explain

  17. Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongsheng Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long — 58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005 — respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation.

  18. Ecological risk assessment of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-14

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long - 58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005 - respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation.

  19. Unsaturated zone leaching models for assessing risk to groundwater of contaminated sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Mads; Binning, Philip John; Nielsen, Signe;

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessments of sites contaminated with organic contaminants are typically conducted using models that ignore gas phase transport in the unsaturated zone. Here a general approach to developing analytical solutions to multiphase transport is presented. The approach is based on a combined gas...... are important mechanisms for attenuation of contaminant concentrations at the water table. Finally, model results are compared with field data to illustrate the applicability of the solutions in risk assessment....... and aqueous phase contaminant transport equation. The equation has the same general form as the standard advection-diffusion equation for which many analytical solutions have been derived. Four new analytical solutions are developed using this approach: a three-dimensional solution accounting for infiltration...

  20. Cerec Smile Design--a software tool for the enhancement of restorations in the esthetic zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbad, Andreas; Kurbad, Susanne

    2013-01-01

    Restorations in the esthetic zone can now be enhanced using software tools. In addition to the design of the restoration itself, a part or all of the patient's face can be displayed on the monitor to increase the predictability of treatment results. Using the Smile Design components of the Cerec and inLab software, a digital photograph of the patient can be projected onto a three-dimensional dummy head. In addition to its use for the enhancement of the CAD process, this technology can also be utilized for marketing purposes.

  1. Assessment of Radiation Exposure Levels and Associated Health Risks in Calabar Free Trade Zone, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Inyang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Exposure to chronic levels of ionizing radiation could be detrimental to health even at very low doses. Calabar free trade zone (CFTZ was established to promote export business in Nigeria and it is yet to produce exposure data of the Zone. Materials and Methods The Zone was divided into three categories depending on the type of business. Category A had facilities with manufacturing businesses, Category B was service providers while Category C was oil and gas businesses. Exposure levels within the CFTZ were measured with exposure meter and results obtained were converted to annual effective dose in mSv/yr. The evaluated doses were used to estimate health risks to workers in the Zone in terms of lifetime cancer incidence and mortality for persons aged between 18 – 65 years using the conversion factors in BEIR VII. Results Category B facilities had dose values between 0.21 – 0.31 mSv/yr followed by Category A with dose values between 0.23 – 0.35 mSv/yr. Category C facilities had the highest dose values between 0.33 – 0.40 mSv/yr. The evaluated cancer incidence and mortality rates were generally less than 2 persons in 1,000 persons for both male and female workers. Conclusion The study shows that the exposure levels in business facilities within the CFTZ were higher than the background radiation level. The effective doses were not uniform for the different categories. The estimated cancer incidence and mortality were low, and simple linear equations were generated to relate cancer incidence to mortality.

  2. Dam risk assistant analysis system design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis,it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system.The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed,and a procedural framework with "three-tier and multi-database" structure and "level structure" is established.The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved.Finally,the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

  3. Risk zone of wrack hitting marine structure simulated by 2D hydraulic model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Jin-rong; GUO Ya-qiong; NAN Wei

    2010-01-01

    The wrack or the ship out of control will drift with flow.One of the most important factors that drive the ship is flow current which moves circularly in tidal area.The wrack from same place always drifts in different ways if the start time is different.So,during the ship drifting period,the drift trace is also determined by both wave and wind forces.The drift direction is limited by water depth which must be deeper than ship draft.These marine structures that can not afford the hit of wrack or will destroy the wrack must be well considered when they are placed near harbor and waterway or other water area with ship running.The risk zone should be consulted according to tide and weather conditions to protect structures and ships in necessary.A method is presented here to simulate the risk zone by 2D numerical hydraulic model with tidal current,wave,wind and water depth considered.This model can be used to built early-warning and protect system for special maline structure.

  4. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Frydman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  5. Risk Classification Model for Design and Build Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. E. Ogunsanmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate if the various risk sources in Design and Build projects can be classified into three risk groups of cost, time and quality using the discriminant analysis technique. Literature search was undertaken to review issues of risk sources, classification of the identified risks into a risk structure, management of risks and effects of risks all on Design and Build projects as well as concepts of discriminant analysis as a statistical technique. This literature review was undertaken through the use of internet, published papers, journal articles and other published reports on risks in Design and Build projects. A research questionnaire was further designed to collect research information. This research study is a survey research that utilized cross-sectional design to capture the primary data. The data for the survey was collected in Nigeria. In all 40 questionnaires were sent to various respondents that included Architects, Engineers, Quantity Surveyors and Builders who had used Design and Build procurement method for their recently completed projects. Responses from these retrieved questionnaires that measured the impact of risks on Design and Build were analyzed using the discriminant analysis technique through the use of SPSS software package to build two discriminant models for classifying risks into cost, time and quality risk groups. Results of the study indicate that time overrun and poor quality are the two factors that discriminate between cost, time and quality related risk groups. These two discriminant functions explain the variation between the risk groups. All the discriminating variables of cost overrun, time overrun and poor quality demonstrate some relationships with the two discriminant functions. The two discriminant models built can classify risks in Design and Build projects into risk groups of cost, time and quality. These classifications models have 72% success rate of classification

  6. Comparative Mapping of Soil Physical-Chemical and Structural Parameters at Field Scale to Identify Zones of Enhanced Leaching Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Trine; Møldrup, Per; Olsen, Preben

    2013-01-01

    characteristics including soil texture, bulk density, dissolved tracer, particle and phosphorus transport parameters identified the northern one-third of the field as a zone with higher leaching risk. This risk assessment based on parameter mapping from measurements on intact samples was in good agreement...

  7. Zoning Districts, Zoning districts within the city limits and comprehensive plan designation within the urban growth area for the City of Stayton, Published in 2007, 1:600 (1in=50ft) scale, City of Stayton Government.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Zoning Districts dataset current as of 2007. Zoning districts within the city limits and comprehensive plan designation within the urban growth area for the City of...

  8. Auroral Electrojet Index Designed to Provide a Global Measure, l-minute Intervals, of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Auroral Electrojet index (AE) is designed to provide a global quantitative measure of auroral zone magnetic activity produced by enhanced ionospheric currents...

  9. Auroral Electrojet Indices Designed to Provide a Global Measure, 2.5-Minute Intervals, of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Auroral Electrojet index (AE) is designed to provide a global quantitative measure of auroral zone magnetic activity produced by enhanced ionospheric currents...

  10. Design of intelligent proximity detection zones to prevent striking and pinning fatalities around continuous mining machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissert, P.T.; Carr, J.L.; DuCarme, J.P.; Smith, A.K.

    2017-01-01

    The continuous mining machine is a key piece of equipment used in underground coal mining operations. Over the past several decades these machines have been involved in a number of mine worker fatalities. Proximity detection systems have been developed to avert hazards associated with operating continuous mining machines. Incorporating intelligent design into proximity detection systems allows workers greater freedom to position themselves to see visual cues or avoid other hazards such as haulage equipment or unsupported roof or ribs. However, intelligent systems must be as safe as conventional proximity detection systems. An evaluation of the 39 fatal accidents for which the Mine Safety and Health Administration has published fatality investigation reports was conducted to determine whether the accident may have been prevented by conventional or intelligent proximity. Multiple zone configurations for the intelligent systems were studied to determine how system performance might be affected by the zone configuration. Researchers found that 32 of the 39 fatalities, or 82 percent, may have been prevented by both conventional and intelligent proximity systems. These results indicate that, by properly configuring the zones of an intelligent proximity detection system, equivalent protection to a conventional system is possible. PMID:28626352

  11. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many......, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's Goal Based Standards Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of Formal Safety...... Assessment and the risk based approach which must be corrected. It further cautions on the over eagerness of some rule makers and designers to drop all prescriptive rule formulations and haphazardly adopt risk based formulations borrowed from other industries which may not be appropriate for ships...

  12. Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

    1993-01-01

    Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

  13. Space telescope design to directly image the habitable zone of Alpha Centauri

    CERN Document Server

    Bendek, Eduardo; Lozi, Julien; Thomas, Sandrine; Males, Jared; Weston, Sasha; McElwain, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The scientific interest in directly image and identifying Earth-like planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) around nearby stars is driving the design of specialized direct imaging mission such as ACESAT, EXO-C, EXO-S and AFTA-C. The inner edge of Alpha Cen A and B Habitable Zone is found at exceptionally large angular separations of 0.7 and 0.4 arcseconds respectively. This enables direct imaging of the system with a 0.3m class telescope. Contrast ratios in the order of 1e-10 are needed to image Earth-brightness planets. Low-resolution (5-band) spectra of all planets, will allow establishing the presence and amount of an atmosphere. This star system configuration is optimal for a specialized small, and stable space telescope, that can achieve high-contrast but has limited resolution. This paper describes an innovative instrument design and a mission concept based on a full Silicon Carbide off-axis telescope, which has a Phase Induce Amplitude Apodization coronagraph embedded in the telescope. This architectur...

  14. Designing of support zones of concrete bridges to withstand action of static and dynamic load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gligorijević Milan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In the paper are presented some of the acquired experiences in designing and construction of bridge structures in several countries, with a special attention to the analysis of support zones and expansion joints behavior of a number of road bridges. During destruction or damage of bridges, there is a small probability, but still there, that the human lives might be endangered (Kobe, Japan 17th January 1995; what is likely, however, is that it will be very difficult to help the injured in the region. Considering that the characteristics of removal of supports has a great influence on the behavior of the entire bridge structure, the design of support joints and connections must be paid due attention. In the recent decades, efforts are made to enhance research of all engineering structure, and thus the bridge structures and their weak points.

  15. Application of remote sensing and geographical information system in mapping forest fire risk zone at Bhadra wildlife sanctuary, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sowmya, S V; Somashekar, R K

    2010-11-01

    Fire is the most spectacular natural disturbance that affects the forest ecosystem composition and diversity. Fire has a devastating effect on the landscape and its impact is felt at every level of the ecosystem and it is possible to map forest fire risk zone and thereby minimize the frequency of fire. There is a need for supranational approaches that analyze wide scenarios of factors involved and global fire effects. Fires can be monitored and analyzed over large areas in a timely and cost effective manner by using satellite imagery. Also Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used effectively to demarcate the fire risk zone map. Bhadra wildlife Sanctuary located in Kamataka, India was selected for this study. Vegetation, slope, distance from roads, settlements parameters were derived for a study area using topographic maps and field information. The Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based forest fire risk model of the study area appeared to be highly compatible with the actual fire-affected sites. The temporal satellite data from 1989 to2006 have been analyzed to map the burnt areas. These classes were weighted according to their influence on forest fire. Four categories of fire risk regions such as Low, Moderate, High and Very high fire intensity zones were identified. It is predicted that around 10.31% of the area falls undermoderate risk zone.

  16. Tornado risk model for transmission line design

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Milford, RV

    1997-11-01

    Full Text Available is in combination with ice loading. The wind load used in most codes of practice and design recommendations for transmission line design have until recently been based almost exclusively on large-scale wind storms, which may include severe storms such as hurricanes...

  17. Recommendations on the use and design of risk matrices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2015-01-01

    Risk matrices are widely used in risk management. They are a regular feature in various risk management standards and guidelines and are also used as formal corporate risk acceptance criteria. It is only recently, however, that scientific publications have appeared that discuss the weaknesses...... of the risk matrix. The objective of this paper is to explore these weaknesses, and provide recommendations for the use and design of risk matrices. The paper reviews the few relevant publications and adds some observations of its own in order to emphasize existing recommendations and add some suggestions...

  18. Seroprevalence and risk factors for brucellosis in cattle in selected districts of Jimma zone, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirar, Bashahun Gebremichael; Nasinyama, George William; Gelalcha, Benti Deresa

    2015-12-01

    A cross-sectional study was carried out in Jimma town and Chora Botor district of Jimma zone from February 2014 to May 2014 to determine seroprevalence and risk factors of brucellosis in cattle. A total of 348 blood samples (174 each from zebu and crossbreed) were collected. The sera were separated and screened by Rose Bengal plate test (RBPT), and positive sera were retested by complement fixation test (CFT) for confirmation. The overall seroprevalence of bovine brucellosis was 1.4 and 0.3 % as tested by RBPT and CFT, respectively. The seroprevalence of bovine brucellosis in indigenous and crossbreed cattle was 1.1 and 0.6 % and 1.7 and 0 % using RBPT and CFT, respectively. Retained fetal membrane was the only risk factor found to be significantly associated with seropositivity of brucellosis in this study (p = 0.019). The overall seroprevalence of brucellosis was very low. However, due to the zoonotic and economic importance of the disease, prevention and control measures are required to stop further spread of the disease. To effectively implement this, the One Health (OH) is the most constructive approach we recommend.

  19. Assessment of the Fire Risk Levels in an Office Building and a Nightclub with Prescriptive Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yilmaz, D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2014-01-01

    was far from meeting the requirements. Another suggested tolerable level herein was derived from the UK specifications by the Health and Safety Executive, which distinguish between tolerable safety level for members of the public and for workplaces. This comparison made it even more difficult......A comparison of the risk level of an office building and a nightclub with code compliant prescriptive designs was conducted in order to evaluate whether an uniform safety level of the two occupancy types can be established. A risk assessment method using Monte Carlo simulations and 1- and 2-zone...... difference in risk levels, with that of the nightclub being substantially higher. The higher risk level in the nightclub is caused by a relatively fast mean value of the fire growth rate and the high number of occupants. Hence, the requirements in the prescriptive code do not ensure a similar safety level...

  20. The Crop Risk Zones Monitoring System for resilience to drought in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaroli, Patrizio; Rocchi, Leandro; De Filippis, Tiziana; Tarchiani, Vieri; Bacci, Maurizio; Toscano, Piero; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Rapisardi, Elena

    2016-04-01

    -making. Since the '90s, analysis tools and models based on meteorological satellites data have been developed within different regional and national initiatives to allow near-real-time monitoring of the cropping season. The software was in general stand-alone applications, transferred to MWGs without continuous user support and updates. Currently MWGs in the Sahel do not have any working operational tool for drought risk identification and forecast, because such tools are by now obsolete from the IT perspective. The challenge and the objective of this work is to provide to MWGs and local end-users an open access/source Crop Risk Zones Monitoring System (CRZ-MS) supporting decision making for drought risk reduction and resilience improvement. A first prototype has been developed for Niger and Mali NMSs, based on a coherent Open Source web-based infrastructure to treat all input and output data in a interoperable, platform-independent and uniform way. The System architecture and functions are based on a agro-meteorological model, running in two different modes: 1) diagnostic mode for the drought monitoring during the agro-pastoral campaign allowing MWGs to identify agricultural drought risk areas in order to support decision making at local and national level in agricultural drought management. This early warning information also represents an input for estimating the nutritional food insecurity, for the identification of potentially vulnerable populations and assessing food crises risks by National EWSs put in place by CILSS with EU, FAO and WFP. 2) predictive mode for "advisory-support" activities to the farmers by the Agricultural Extension Services, in order to implement the most appropriate strategies for minimizing drought risk on crops (i.e. identification of the optimal period of sowing, choice of varieties based on the expected length of the growing season, adoption of suitable cultural practices for soil water management) and to build farmers resilience. To increase the

  1. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...... the estimates for confounding from other risk factors. We describe some potential unintentional effects when using adjusted risk estimates in evaluating the efficacy and sensitivity of risk-based surveillance systems (SSe). In two examples, we quantify and compare the efficacy and SSe using adjusted and crude...

  2. Recognizing Risk-of-Failure in Communication Design Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Joyce; Lievesley, Matthew; Taylor, Louise

    2009-01-01

    The pace of commercial graphic design practice presents very few opportunities to conduct user research after a project's launch. This makes the design team's ability to anticipate and address risks during the design development phase even more important, recognized in the astute observation from Tim Brown, CEO of leading international design…

  3. Empirical features of the second-generation target zone models : Mean-reverting fundamentals and endogenous devaluation risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Dijkstra, T.K.; de Haan, J.

    1999-01-01

    We show that within Bertola and Svensson's second-generation target zone model, mean-reverting interventions and endogenous devaluation risk are closely interrelated. Over the period 1983-93 we analyze the degree of mean reversion in the underlying fundamental process as well as the term structure o

  4. Buffer Zone Sign Template

    Science.gov (United States)

    The certified pesticide applicator is required to post a comparable sign, designating a buffer zone around the soil fumigant application block in order to control exposure risk. It must include the don't walk symbol, product name, and applicator contact.

  5. Ship crashworthiness in risk based design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vredeveldt, A.W.

    2011-01-01

    The concept of goal based design is gradually gaining a foothold in the IMO regulatory process. This paper demonstrates how this concept can be implemented in a practical way. The demonstrator case is transport of dangerous cargo on Europe's inland water ways. © 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

  6. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  7. Space Telescope Design to Directly Image the Habitable Zone of Alpha Centauri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendek, Eduardo A.; Belikov, Ruslan; Lozi, Julien; Thomas, Sandrine; Males, Jared; Weston, Sasha; McElwain, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The scientific interest in directly imaging and identifying Earth-like planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) around nearby stars is driving the design of specialized direct imaging missions such as ACESAT, EXO-C, EXO-S and AFTA-C. The inner edge of Alpha Cen A&B Habitable Zone is found at exceptionally large angular separations of 0.7" and 0.4" respectively. This enables direct imaging of the system with a 0.3m class telescope. Contrast ratios on the order of 10(exp 10) are needed to image Earth-brightness planets. Low-resolution (5-band) spectra of all planets may allow establishing the presence and amount of an atmosphere. This star system configuration is optimal for a specialized small, and stable space telescope that can achieve high-contrast but has limited resolution. This paper describes an innovative instrument design and a mission concept based on a full Silicon Carbide off-axis telescope, which has a Phase Induced Amplitude Apodization coronagraph embedded in the telescope. This architecture maximizes stability and throughput. A Multi-Star Wave Front algorithm is implemented to drive a deformable mirror controlling simultaneously diffracted light from the on-axis and binary companion star. The instrument has a Focal Plane Occulter to reject starlight into a high precision pointing control camera. Finally we utilize a Orbital Differential Imaging (ODI) post-processing method that takes advantage of a highly stable environment (Earth-trailing orbit) and a continuous sequence of images spanning 2 years, to reduce the final noise floor in post processing to approximately 2e-11 levels, enabling high confidence and at least 90% completeness detections of Earth-like planets.

  8. Space Telescope Design to Directly Image the Habitable Zone of Alpha Centauri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendek, Eduardo A.; Belikov, Ruslan; Lozi, Julien; Thomas, Sandrine; Males, Jared; Weston, Sasha; McElwain, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The scientific interest in directly imaging and identifying Earth-like planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) around nearby stars is driving the design of specialized direct imaging missions such as ACESAT, EXO-C, EXO-S and AFTA-C. The inner edge of Alpha Cen A&B Habitable Zone is found at exceptionally large angular separations of 0.7" and 0.4" respectively. This enables direct imaging of the system with a 0.3m class telescope. Contrast ratios on the order of 10(exp 10) are needed to image Earth-brightness planets. Low-resolution (5-band) spectra of all planets may allow establishing the presence and amount of an atmosphere. This star system configuration is optimal for a specialized small, and stable space telescope that can achieve high-contrast but has limited resolution. This paper describes an innovative instrument design and a mission concept based on a full Silicon Carbide off-axis telescope, which has a Phase Induced Amplitude Apodization coronagraph embedded in the telescope. This architecture maximizes stability and throughput. A Multi-Star Wave Front algorithm is implemented to drive a deformable mirror controlling simultaneously diffracted light from the on-axis and binary companion star. The instrument has a Focal Plane Occulter to reject starlight into a high precision pointing control camera. Finally we utilize a Orbital Differential Imaging (ODI) post-processing method that takes advantage of a highly stable environment (Earth-trailing orbit) and a continuous sequence of images spanning 2 years, to reduce the final noise floor in post processing to approximately 2e-11 levels, enabling high confidence and at least 90% completeness detections of Earth-like planets.

  9. Design risk assessment for burst-prone mines: Application in a Canadian mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, David J.

    A proactive stance towards improving the effectiveness and consistency of risk assessments has been adopted recently by mining companies and industry. The next 10-20 years forecasts that ore deposits accessible using shallow mining techniques will diminish. The industry continues to strive for success in "deeper" mining projects in order to keep up with the continuing demand for raw materials. Although the returns are quite profitable, many projects have been sidelined due to high uncertainty and technical risk in the mining of the mineral deposit. Several hardrock mines have faced rockbursting and seismicity problems. Within those reported, mines in countries like South Africa, Australia and Canada have documented cases of severe rockburst conditions attributed to the mining depth. Severe rockburst conditions known as "burst-prone" can be effectively managed with design. Adopting a more robust design can ameliorate the exposure of workers and equipment to adverse conditions and minimize the economic consequences, which can hinder the bottom line of an operation. This thesis presents a methodology created for assessing the design risk in burst-prone mines. The methodology includes an evaluation of relative risk ratings for scenarios with options of risk reduction through several design principles. With rockbursts being a hazard of seismic events, the methodology is based on research in the area of mining seismicity factoring in rockmass failure mechanisms, which results from a combination of mining induced stress, geological structures, rockmass properties and mining influences. The methodology was applied to case studies at Craig Mine of Xstrata Nickel in Sudbury, Ontario, which is known to contain seismically active fault zones. A customized risk assessment was created and applied to rockburst case studies, evaluating the seismic vulnerability and consequence for each case. Application of the methodology to Craig Mine demonstrates that changes in the design can

  10. New hybrid genetic particle swarm optimization algorithm to design multi-zone binary filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jie; Zhao, Hongyang; Ma, Yuan; Tan, Jiubin; Jin, Peng

    2016-05-16

    The binary phase filters have been used to achieve an optical needle with small lateral size. Designing a binary phase filter is still a scientific challenge in such fields. In this paper, a hybrid genetic particle swarm optimization (HGPSO) algorithm is proposed to design the binary phase filter. The HGPSO algorithm includes self-adaptive parameters, recombination and mutation operations that originated from the genetic algorithm. Based on the benchmark test, the HGPSO algorithm has achieved global optimization and fast convergence. In an easy-to-perform optimizing procedure, the iteration number of HGPSO is decreased to about a quarter of the original particle swarm optimization process. A multi-zone binary phase filter is designed by using the HGPSO. The long depth of focus and high resolution are achieved simultaneously, where the depth of focus and focal spot transverse size are 6.05λ and 0.41λ, respectively. Therefore, the proposed HGPSO can be applied to the optimization of filter with multiple parameters.

  11. Capture-zone design in an aquifer influenced by cyclic fluctuations in hydraulic gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzki, Willy; Chorley, Don; Patrick, Guy

    2002-10-01

    Design of a groundwater pumping and treatment system for a wood-treatment facility adjacent to the tidally influenced Fraser River estuary required the development of methodologies to account for cyclic variations in hydraulic gradients. Design of such systems must consider the effects of these cyclic fluctuations on the capture of dissolved-phase contaminants. When the period of the cyclic fluctuation is much less than the travel time of the dissolved contaminant from the source to the discharge point, the hydraulic-gradient variations resulting from these cycles can be ignored. Capture zones are then designed based on the average hydraulic gradient determined using filter techniques on continuous groundwater-level measurements. When the period of cyclic fluctuation in hydraulic gradient is near to or greater than the contaminant travel time, the resulting hydraulic-gradient variations cannot be ignored. In these instances, procedures are developed to account for these fluctuations in the capture-zone design. These include proper characterization of the groundwater regime, assessment of the average travel time and period of the cyclic fluctuations, and numerical techniques which allow accounting for the cyclic fluctuations in the design of the capture zone. Résumé. L'étude d'un système de pompage et de traitement de l'eau souterraine d'une usine de traitement du bois proche de l'estuaire de la rivière Fraser, influencé par les marées, a nécessité la mise au point de méthodologies pour prendre en compte les variations cycliques de gradients hydrauliques. L'étude de tels systèmes doit considérer les effets de ces variations cycliques sur l'extraction des contaminants en phase dissoute. Lorsque la période des variations cycliques est très inférieure au temps de parcours du contaminant dissous entre la source et le point d'émergence, les variations du gradient hydraulique résultant de ces cycles peuvent être ignorées. Les zones d'extraction sont

  12. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... are: A: to detect an emerging disease or infection, if it becomes introduced into a population; or B: to substantiate freedom from a condition in a population; or C: to detect cases and estimate the prevalence of an endemic condition in a population. In risk-based surveillance these aims should be met...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  13. Eco-design opportunities for critical material supply risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peck, D.P.; Bakker, C.A.

    2012-01-01

    A number of recent publications point to the important role of eco-design approaches in risk mitigation for critical materials supply. The core of eco-design is life cycle thinking – usually as some form of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach together with a set of generic guidelines such as checkl

  14. Eco-design opportunities for critical material supply risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peck, D.P.; Bakker, C.A.

    2012-01-01

    A number of recent publications point to the important role of eco-design approaches in risk mitigation for critical materials supply. The core of eco-design is life cycle thinking – usually as some form of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach together with a set of generic guidelines such as

  15. Monitoring and Management of Coastal Zones Which are Under Flooding Risk with Remote Sensing and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Direk, S.; Seker, D. Z.; Musaoglu, N.; Gazioglu, C.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal zone areas play an important role in value to the welfare of nations and provides natural, social, cultural and economic benefits and increased quality of life. A great majority of the earth population live in coastal zone areas and they are under flooding risk due to tsunamies, storm surge, typhoon, sea level rise, precipitation and dam destruction. Global warming from the grenhouse effect raises sea level by expanding seawater, melting water and causing ice sheets to melt. Based on a selection of nine long, high quality tide gauge records, Holgate analyzed that the Mean Sea Level (MSL) rise over the period of 1904-2003 was found to be 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/year. Consider the whole century showed that the high decadal rates of change in global MSL was observed during the last 20 years of the records. Based on 4 tide gauge records in Marmara Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, Yildiz analyzed that MSL rise during 1984-2002 was found to be 9.6 ± 0.9 mm/year, 5.1 ± 1 mm/year and 8.7 ± 0.8 mm/year respectively. By analyzing the whole recorded data, it is found that the annual MSL rise in eastern mediterranean was 4-7 mm/year which was higher than the global prediction. A rise in sea level would accelerate coastal erosion, aggravate flooding, threaten coastal area structures and inundate wetlands. The salinity of rivers and bays would increase. A 1 meter in sea level rise would enable a 15-20 year storm to flood many areas. Higher water levels would reduce coastal drainage which would cause an increase flooding by rain storms. Finally, a rise in sea level would raise water tables and would flood basements. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a state of art technology and operationally being used more frequently by commercial and scientific society. GIS system provides a stable platform for the integration of data from different sources, allows a large quantity of data to be stored and processed, provides a seamless geographical database and provides a

  16. A web accessible scientific workflow system for vadoze zone performance monitoring: design and implementation examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattson, E.; Versteeg, R.; Ankeny, M.; Stormberg, G.

    2005-12-01

    Long term performance monitoring has been identified by DOE, DOD and EPA as one of the most challenging and costly elements of contaminated site remedial efforts. Such monitoring should provide timely and actionable information relevant to a multitude of stakeholder needs. This information should be obtained in a manner which is auditable, cost effective and transparent. Over the last several years INL staff has designed and implemented a web accessible scientific workflow system for environmental monitoring. This workflow environment integrates distributed, automated data acquisition from diverse sensors (geophysical, geochemical and hydrological) with server side data management and information visualization through flexible browser based data access tools. Component technologies include a rich browser-based client (using dynamic javascript and html/css) for data selection, a back-end server which uses PHP for data processing, user management, and result delivery, and third party applications which are invoked by the back-end using webservices. This system has been implemented and is operational for several sites, including the Ruby Gulch Waste Rock Repository (a capped mine waste rock dump on the Gilt Edge Mine Superfund Site), the INL Vadoze Zone Research Park and an alternative cover landfill. Implementations for other vadoze zone sites are currently in progress. These systems allow for autonomous performance monitoring through automated data analysis and report generation. This performance monitoring has allowed users to obtain insights into system dynamics, regulatory compliance and residence times of water. Our system uses modular components for data selection and graphing and WSDL compliant webservices for external functions such as statistical analyses and model invocations. Thus, implementing this system for novel sites and extending functionality (e.g. adding novel models) is relatively straightforward. As system access requires a standard webbrowser

  17. Risk assessment and integrity in system design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, R.S.; Winter, V.

    1998-03-01

    All systems, regardless of how carefully they have been constructed, suffer failures. This paper focuses on developing a formal understanding of failure with respect to system implementations. Furthermore, the authors would like the system design process to be able to leverage off of this understanding. It is important to deal with failures in a system context, rather than a priori limiting the solution to a particular technology, such as software alone. Their approach is limited to the class of systems that can be modeled by hybrid finite state machines (HFSMs) as described in Winter. The purpose of this paper is to lay out a process, or framework that can aid in identification and characterization of techniques for dealing with the different types of system threats. This framework leads naturally to a taxonomy of technologies and strategies for dealing with the various types of threats. In this process technologies are used to identify a priority list of technical capabilities for dealing with threats. The technologies are prioritized according to their analyzability and predictability. Strategies are then used to identify specific implementations that are best suited to dealing with the threat.

  18. In-depth analysis of drivers' merging behavior and rear-end crash risks in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Xue, Shan; Yang, Ying; Yan, Xuedong; Qu, Xiaobo

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the drivers' merging behavior and the rear-end crash risk in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the merging traffic data from a work zone site in Singapore, a mixed probit model is developed to describe the merging behavior, and two surrogate safety measures including the time to collision (TTC) and deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) are adopted to compute the rear-end crash risk between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. Results show that the merging vehicle has a bigger probability of completing a merging maneuver quickly under one of the following situations: (i) the merging vehicle moves relatively fast; (ii) the merging lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle; and (iii) there is a sizable gap in the adjacent through lane. Results indicate that the rear-end crash risk does not monotonically increase as the merging vehicle speed increases. The merging vehicle's rear-end crash risk is also affected by the vehicle type. There is a biggest increment of rear-end crash risk if the merging lead vehicle belongs to a heavy vehicle. Although the reduced remaining distance to work zone could urge the merging vehicle to complete a merging maneuver quickly, it might lead to an increased rear-end crash risk. Interestingly, it is found that the rear-end crash risk could be generally increased over the elapsed time after the merging maneuver being triggered. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Reducing Design Risk Using Robust Design Methods: A Dual Response Surface Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit; Yeniay, Ozgur; Lepsch, Roger A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Space transportation system conceptual design is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Risk here is defined as the variability in the estimated (output) performance characteristic of interest resulting from the uncertainties in the values of several disciplinary design and/or operational parameters. Uncertainties from one discipline (and/or subsystem) may propagate to another, through linking parameters and the final system output may have a significant accumulation of risk. This variability can result in significant deviations from the expected performance. Therefore, an estimate of variability (which is called design risk in this study) together with the expected performance characteristic value (e.g. mean empty weight) is necessary for multidisciplinary optimization for a robust design. Robust design in this study is defined as a solution that minimizes variability subject to a constraint on mean performance characteristics. Even though multidisciplinary design optimization has gained wide attention and applications, the treatment of uncertainties to quantify and analyze design risk has received little attention. This research effort explores the dual response surface approach to quantify variability (risk) in critical performance characteristics (such as weight) during conceptual design.

  20. 33 CFR 165.1405 - Regulated Navigation Areas and Security Zones; Designated Escorted Vessels-Philippine Sea and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Security Zones; Designated Escorted Vessels-Philippine Sea and Apra Harbor, Guam (including Cabras Island... Cabras Island Channel), and Tanapag Harbor, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI...″ E. (4) Cabras Island Channel, Guam—All waters from surface to bottom of Cabras Island Channel,...

  1. Pressurization Risk Assessment of CO2 Reservoirs Utilizing Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.

  2. Risk of wine-distillery waste compost application in vulnerable zones: nitrogen balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requejo, M. I.; Villena, R.; Ventas, L.; Ribas, F.; Castellanos, M. T.; Cabello, M. J.; Arce, A.; Cartagena, M. C.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrogen (N) is the nutrient with the greatest impact on yield of horticultural crops. It is extremely dynamic in soil and undergoes changes that include processes of gains, losses and transformations. The melon crop area at Ciudad Real adds the 29% of the national production in Spain. The common agronomic management is representative of semiarid cropped zones of Spain where environmental degradation of water supplies with high N loads is observed. The site of this work is located near of Mancha Occidental aquifer (U.H.04.04, 6.953 km2) and Campo de Montiel aquifer (U.H. 04.06, 3.192 km2) with high contamination problems. The efficient use of fertilizers and irrigation is especially important in these areas designated vulnerables to nitrate pollution from agricultural sources. The aim of this study was to assess N losses when applying exhausted grape marc compost to a melon crop as source of nutrients in a vulnerable area. The doses are often excessive because are normally based on the input of organic matter rather than on the potentially mineralizable nitrogen. This N is not only released during the growing season but also in the intercropping period. In this experiment a nitrogen balance was carried out with three different doses of compost: 0 (D0), 6.7 (D1), 13.3 (D2) and 20 T compost ha-1 (D3). The soil was a shallow sandy-loam (Alfisol Xeralf Petrocalcic Palexeralfs), with a depth of 0.6 m and a discontinuous petrocalcic horizon between 0.6 and 0.7 m. Nitrogen plant absorption and nitrate losses were measured weekly, controlling at the same time N mineralized in soil. Simultaneously, a mineralization experiment was carried out without crop (either in laboratory and field conditions) to compare it with the results obtained with melon crop. Acknowledgements This project has been supported by INIA-RTA2010-00110-C03-01.

  3. Biofilter design for effective nitrogen removal from stormwater - influence of plant species, inflow hydrology and use of a saturated zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Emily G I; Pham, Tracey; Cook, Perran L M; Fletcher, Tim D; Hatt, Belinda E; Deletic, Ana

    2014-01-01

    The use of biofilters to remove nitrogen and other pollutants from urban stormwater runoff has demonstrated varied success across laboratory and field studies. Design variables including plant species and use of a saturated zone have large impacts upon performance. A laboratory column study of 22 plant species and designs with varied outlet configuration was conducted across a 1.5-year period to further investigate the mechanisms and influences driving biofilter nitrogen processing. This paper presents outflow concentrations of total nitrogen from two sampling events across both 'wet' and 'dry' frequency dosing, and from sampling across two points in the outflow hydrograph. All plant species were effective under conditions of frequent dosing, but extended drying increased variation between species and highlighted the importance of a saturated zone in maintaining biofilter function. The saturated zone also effectively treated the volume of stormwater stored between inflow events, but this extended detention provided no additional benefit alongside the rapid processing of the highest performing species. Hence, the saturated zone reduced performance differences between plant species, and potentially acts as an 'insurance policy' against poor sub-optimal plant selection. The study shows the importance of biodiversity and inclusion of a saturated zone in protecting against climate variability.

  4. Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

    2016-12-01

    The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

  5. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  6. Preliminary zoning for risk assessment and remediation purposes in Portman Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Sirvent, Carmen; Martínez-Sanchez, MJose; Garcia-Lorenzo, MariLuz; Hernandez-Cordoba, Manuel; Molina, Jose; Gonzalez, Eva; Perez-Espinosa, Victor

    2014-05-01

    , pyrite and quartz predominate. The pH is close to neutrality and despite a high heavy metals level, the chemical reactivity is low. The data allowed a preliminary zoning of the risk in the area to be established, and this was the starting point to outline the remediation project.

  7. Environmental Risk of Metal Mining Contaminated River Bank Sediment at Redox-Transitional Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah F. L. Lynch

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Diffuse metal pollution from mining impacted sediment is widely recognised as a potential source of contamination to river systems and may significantly hinder the achievement of European Union Water Framework Directive objectives. Redox-transitional zones that form along metal contaminated river banks as a result of flood and drought cycles could cause biogeochemical changes that alter the behaviour of polyvalent metals iron and manganese and anions such as sulphur. Trace metals are often partitioned with iron, manganese and sulphur minerals in mining-contaminated sediment, therefore the dissolution and precipitation of these minerals may influence the mobility of potentially toxic trace metals. Research indicates that freshly precipitated metal oxides and sulphides may be more “reactive” (more adsorbent and prone to dissolution when conditions change than older crystalline forms. Fluctuations at the oxic-anoxic interface brought about through changes in the frequency and duration of flood and drought episodes may therefore influence the reactivity of secondary minerals that form in the sediment and the flux of dissolved trace metal release. UK climate change models predict longer dry periods for some regions, interspersed with higher magnitude flood events. If we are to fully comprehend the future environmental risk these climate change events pose to mining impacted river systems it is recommended that research efforts focus on identifying the primary controls on trace metal release at the oxic-anoxic interface for flood and drought cycles of different duration and frequency. This paper critically reviews the literature regarding biogeochemical processes that occur at different temporal scales during oxic, reducing and dry periods and focuses on how iron and sulphur based minerals may alter in form and reactivity and influence the mobility of trace metal contaminants. It is clear that changes in redox potential can alter the composition

  8. Design and implementation of integrated solid wastes management pattern in industrial zones, case study of Shahroud, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeid, Nazemi; Roudbari, Aliakbar; Yaghmaeian, Kamyar

    2014-01-14

    The aim of the study was to design and implementation of integrated solid wastes management pattern in Shahroud industrial zone, evaluates the results and determine possible performance problems. This cross - sectional study was carried out for 4 years in Shahroud industrial zone and the implementation process included:1- Qualitative and quantitative analysis of all solid waste generated in the city, 2- determine the current state of solid waste management in the zone and to identify programs conducted, 3- Design and implementation of integrated solid wastes management pattern including design and implementation of training programs, laws, penalties and incentives and explain and implement programs for all factories and 4- The monitoring of the implementation process and determine the results. Annually, 1,728 tons of solid wastes generated in the town including 1603 tons of industrial wastes and 125 tons of municipal wastes. By implementing this pattern, the two separated systems of collection and recycling of domestic and industrial wastes was launched in this zone. Also consistent with the goals, the amount of solid wastes generated and disposed in 2009 was 51.5 and 28.6 kg per 100 million Rials production, respectively. Results showed that implementation of pattern of separated collection, training programs, capacity building, providing technical services, completing chain of industries and strengthening the cooperation between industrial estate management and industrial units could greatly reduce the waste management problems.

  9. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Thouret

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows, and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials.

    In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access

  10. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

    2013-02-01

    Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our

  11. Risk Management and Loss Optimization at Design Process of Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katalin Németh-Erdődi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We’d like to introduce a flexible system of design process elements to support theformation and tool selection of an efficient, „lean” product design process. To do this weidentify numerical risk factors and introduce a calculating method for optimising takinginto consideration- the effect of design steps on usage characteristics,- the time needed by the design elements and the resultant losses,- the effect of design on the success of the implementation process.A generic model was developed for harmonising and sequencing of market and technicalactivities with built-in acceptance phase. The steps of the model can be selected flexiblydepending on design goals. The model regards the concurrent character of market,technical and organising activities, the critical speed of information flow between them andthe control, decision and confirmation points.

  12. Applying Statistical Design to Control the Risk of Over-Design with Stochastic Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wu

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available By comparing a hard real-time system and a soft real-time system, this article elicits the risk of over-design in soft real-time system designing. To deal with this risk, a novel concept of statistical design is proposed. The statistical design is the process accurately accounting for and mitigating the effects of variation in part geometry and other environmental conditions, while at the same time optimizing a target performance factor. However, statistical design can be a very difficult and complex task when using clas-sical mathematical methods. Thus, a simulation methodology to optimize the design is proposed in order to bridge the gap between real-time analysis and optimization for robust and reliable system design.

  13. Assessing aquifer contamination risk using immunoassay: trace analysis of atrazine in unsaturated zone sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, K.E.; Thurman, E.M.

    1997-01-01

    The vulnerability of a shallow aquifer in south-central Kansas to contamination by atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamines-triazine) was assessed by analyzing unsaturated zone soil and sediment samples from about 60 dryland and irrigated sites using an ultrasensitive immunoassay (detection level of 0.02 µg/kg) with verification by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Samples were collected at depths of 0 to 1.2 m (i.e., the root zone), 1.2 to 1.8 m, and 1.8 to 3.0 m during two time periods-prior to planting and after harvest of crops. About 75% of the samples contained detectable concentrations of parent atrazine. At the shallow sampling depth, atrazine concentrations ranged from 0.5 to approximately 12 µg/kg. Atrazine concentrations at the intermediate (1.2-1.8 m) depth generally were degradation of parent atrazine in the root zone. Likewise, atrazine concentrations front the deepest (1.8-3.0 m) depth ranged from atrazine use ranging from 1 to 5 or more years, there does not appear to he a significant buildup of parent compound below the root zone. Therefore, the unsaturated zone does not appear to be a major storage compartment of atrazine contamination for the underlying shallow aquifer.

  14. Rift Valley fever in a zone potentially occupied by Aedes vexans in Senegal: dynamics and risk mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Vignolles

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the interaction between the various variables associated with Rift Valley fever (RVF such as the mosquito vector, available hosts and rainfall distribution. To that end, the varying zones potentially occupied by mosquitoes (ZPOM, rainfall events and pond dynamics, and the associated exposure of hosts to the RVF virus by Aedes vexans, were analyzed in the Barkedji area of the Ferlo, Senegal, during the 2003 rainy season. Ponds were identified by remote sensing using a high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite image. Additional data on ponds and rainfall events from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission were combined with in-situ entomological and limnimetric measurements, and the localization of vulnerable ruminant hosts (data derived from QuickBird satellite. Since “Ae. vexans productive events” are dependent on the timing of rainfall for their embryogenesis (six days without rain are necessary to trigger hatching, the dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Ae. vexans density was based on the total rainfall amount and pond dynamics. Detailed ZPOM mapping was obtained on a daily basis and combined with aggressiveness temporal profiles. Risks zones, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability are combined, are expressed by the percentages of parks where animals are potentially exposed to mosquito bites. This new approach, simply relying upon rainfall distribution evaluated from space, is meant to contribute to the implementation of a new, operational early warning system for RVF based on environmental risks linked to climatic and environmental conditions.

  15. Essays on pension scheme design and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cui, J.

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation deals with the optimal design of funded pension schemes and its welfare implications for participants. The first article illustrates the welfare gain of well organized intergenerational risk sharing within collective pension funds over the optimal individual benchmark. The second a

  16. Approach channels: risk- and simulation-based design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nuygen, M.Q.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop new interpretation methods and overall risk assessment models for navigation aspects in association with waterway design. The methods, which are based on the results achieved from ship maneuvering simulation and numerical models, address two ship accident scenario

  17. Design parameters of a non-air-conditioned cinema hall for thermal comfort under arid-zone climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiwari, G.N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Lugani, N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Singh, A.K. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies)

    1993-01-01

    In this communication, a design of a cinema hall suitable for climatic conditions in an arid zone has been presented. The various cooling techniques, namely evaporative cooling, wind tower, ventilation/infiltration and natural cooling, have been incorporated in the design to achieve thermal comfort during the period of operation. The design parameters have been optimized on the basis of numerical computations after establishing an energy balance for each component of a cinema hall. It is observed that cooling treatment, i.e., a wind tower with a cooling pool on the roof provides reasonable thermal comfort inside the enclosure. (orig.)

  18. Natural and traditional defense mechanisms to reduce climate risks in coastal zones of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Ataur Rahman

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Substantially resourceful and densely populated coastal zones of Bangladesh experience numerous extreme events linked to hydro-meteorological processes viz. cyclones, tidal surges, floods, salinity intrusion and erosion etc. These hazards give rise to extensive damage to property and loss of lives every year. Further, anthropogenic activities in the coastal zones are accentuating environmental degradation causing widespread suffering. Cyclones and tornadoes in particular damage infrastructures and crops every year affecting the economy of the country negatively. Some naturally adapted plants as well as landscapes usually reduce the speed of cyclones and tornadoes and thus, protect the coastal zones. However, human activities have destroyed many of the forests and landscapes. Sundarbans and Chokoria Sundarbans mangrove forests of Bangladesh are under a great threat of extinction due to illicit logging and agricultural expansion. At least 34 plant species of tropical forest are on the verge of extinction. Many animals e.g., cats, bears, porcupines, wild boars, pythons and anteaters are in the process of being wiped out from the coastal areas. Among the marine and coastal species, Red crabs, jelly-fish, sharks, and dolphins are also rare but these were the major species prior to 1980s. This study revealed that during the recent decades there has been massive plantations and construction of embankment and polderization but these and other measures have been found to be impractical and ineffective in reducing disasters in coastal areas. There is a need for integration of traditional coping practices and wisdoms with modern approaches. Available knowledge on some of these traditional practices has been documented for establishing a sustainable policy for management of coastal zones of Bangladesh. By combining traditional and scientific management of coastal ecosystem with mangroves and other plants following triple-tier mechanism and habitat, it is

  19. Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Nazari Gooran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

  20. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin McLain

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  1. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin McLain

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  2. On structural design optimization under uncertainty and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teófilo Beck, André; José de Santana Gomes, Wellison

    2010-06-01

    In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and risk on structural design optimization are investigated, by comparing results of Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO), Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) and Reliability-based Risk Optimization (RBRO). DDO yields a structural topology (or shape) which is optimum in terms of mechanics, but does not explicitly address parameter uncertainties and their effects on structural safety. RBDO properly models safety-under-uncertainty, allowing the optimum structure to maintain an acceptable level of safety. Results, however, are dependent on the failure probability used as constraint. Risk optimization (RBRO) increases the scope of the problem, by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the costs associated to construction, operation and maintenance, as well as the monetary consequences of failure. RBRO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RBRO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when the optimum safety coefficients are used as constraint in DDO, the formulation leads to optimum configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected cost of failure). If the (optimum) system failure probability is used as constraint in RBDO, the optimum solution reduces manufacturing costs, but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated to different failure modes are distinct.

  3. Using QA classification to guide design and manage risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lathrop, J. [Strategic Insights, Los Altos, CA (United States); DeKlever, R. [Raytheon Services Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Petrie, E.H. [USDOE Nevada Field Office, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    1993-01-28

    Raytheon Services Nevada has developed a classification process based on probabilistic risk assessment, using accident/impact scenarios for each system classified. Initial classification analyses were performed for the 20 systems of Package IA of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). The analyses demonstrated a solid, defensible methodological basis for classification which minimizes the use of direct engineering judgment. They provide guidance for ESF design and risk management through the identification of: The critical characteristics of each system that need to be controlled; and the parts of the information base that most need to be further developed through performance assessment or other efforts.

  4. [Transportation and risk assessment of heavy metal pollution in water-soil from the Riparian Zone of Daye Lake, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jia-quan; Li, Xiu; Zhang, Quan-fa; Li, Qiong; Xiao, Wen-sheng; Wang, Yong-kui; Zhang, Jian-chun; Gai, Xi-guang

    2015-01-01

    Each 20 water samples and soil samples (0-10 cm, 10-20 cm) were collected from the riparian zone of Daye Lake in dry season during March 2013. Heavy metals (Cu, Ph, Cd, Zn) have been detected by flame atomic absorption spectrometric (FAAS). The results showed that the average concentrations of Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn in the water were 7.14, 25.94, 15.72 and 37.58 microg x L(-1), respectively. The concentration of Cu was higher than the five degree of the surface water environment quality standard. The average concentrations of Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn in soil(0-10 cm) were 108.38, 53.92, 3.55, 139.26 mg x kg(-1) in soil (10-20 cm) were 93.00, 51.72, 2.08, 171.00 mg x kg(-1), respectively. The Cd concentrations were higher than the three grade value of the national soil environment quality standard. The transportation of Pb from soil to water was relatively stable, and Zn was greatly influenced by soil property and the surrounding environment from soil to water. The transformation of heavy metal in west riparian zone was higher than that of east riparian zone. The potential environmental risk was relatively high. Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn were dominated by residue fraction of the modified BCR sequential extraction method. The overall migration order of heavy metal element was: Pb > Cu > Cd > Zn. There were stronger transformation and higher environmental pollution risk of Cu, Pb. The index of assessment and potential ecological risk coefficient indicated that heavy metal pollution in soil (0-10 cm) was higher than the soil (10-20 cm), Cd was particularly serious.

  5. 高速公路养护维修作业区危险因素分析%The Analysis of Risk Factors in Highway Work Zones

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕斌; 李林波; 吴兵

    2014-01-01

    国内高速公路养护维修作业区事故是交通管理部门亟待解决的一个问题。文中研究了国外高速公路养护维修作业区的事故规律,通过对国外文献中高速公路作业区事故危险因素分析法的综述,建立完善的作业区危险因素体系。结合事故数据,分析国内作业区事故特点,并有针对性地提出了安全管理对策。%Prevention of work zone crashes is one of the top priorities for transportation agencies.Clar-ifying the risk factors in highway work zone is of great importance to improve the safety of work zone. First,the crash characteristics on highway work zones abroad is studied.Then,a sound system of risk factors in work zone is established through a review of foreign literature about crash risk factor of highway work zone.The characteristic of domestic work zone crashes combined with crash data is an-alyzed.Finally,the safety management measures to improve domestic highway work zone safety are put forward.

  6. Risk zones of human Leishmaniases in the Western Mediterranean basin: correlations between vector sand flies, bioclimatology and phytosociology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispail, Philippe; Dereure, Jacques; Jarry, Daniel

    2002-06-01

    Correspondence analysis was applied to sand fly sampling in 865 stations from the Western Mediterranean basin. The position of each of 24 species was determined with respect to the bioclimatic belts. Thus, the multidimensional analyses manifest clear correlations between bioclimatic belts and their expression in the area, the phytosociological groupings, and vector species of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases. The transfer of these data to usual maps allows to delimit the geographical distribution of these diseases in the Western Mediterranean basin and contributes to the determination, in a rational manner, of the high risk zones.

  7. The Design and Risk Management of Structured Finance Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjiv Das

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Special investment vehicles (SIVs, extremely popular financial structures for the creation of highly-rated tranched securities, experienced spectacular demise in the 2007-2008 financial crisis. These financial vehicles epitomize the shadow banking sector, characterized by high leverage, undiversified asset pools, and long-dated assets supported by short-term debt, thus bearing material rollover risk on their liabilities which led to defeasance. This paper models these vehicles, and shows that imposing leverage risk control triggers can be optimal for all capital providers, though they may not always be appropriate. The efficacy of these risk controls varies depending on anticipated asset volatility and fire-sale discounts on defeasance. Despite risk management controls, we show that a high failure rate is inherent in the design of these vehicles, and may be mitigated to some extent by including contingent capital provisions in the ex-ante covenants. Post the recent subprime financial crisis, we inform the creation of safer SIVs in structured finance, and propose avenues of mitigating risks faced by senior debt through deleveraging policies in the form of leverage risk controls and contingent capital.

  8. Automated, reproducible delineation of zones at risk from inundation by large volcanic debris flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Steve P.; Iverson, Richard M.

    1997-01-01

    Large debris flows can pose hazards to people and property downstream from volcanoes. We have developed a rapid, reproducible, objective, and inexpensive method to delineate distal debris-flow hazard zones. Our method employs the results of scaling and statistical analyses of the geometry of volcanic debris flows (lahars) to predict inundated valley cross-sectional areas (A) and planimetric areas (B) as functions of lahar volume. We use a range of specified lahar volumes to evaluate A and B. In a Geographic Information System (GIS) we employ the resulting range of predicted A and B to delineate gradations in inundation hazard, which is highest near the volcano and along valley thalwegs and diminishes as distances from the volcano and elevations above valley floors increase. Comparison of our computer-generated hazard maps with those constructed using traditional, field-based methods indicates that our method can provide an accurate means of delineating lahar hazard zones.

  9. Applicability research on passive design of residential buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hui; Wang, Huihui; Zhou, Xuan

    2017-04-01

    Passive design has long been a concern as an effective way of building energy efficiency. However, different urban climate characteristics determine the time-effectiveness of passive design. According to the climate characteristics of hot summer and cold winter zone in China, this research chose five cities, Shanghai, Wuhan, Chongqing, Nanjing and Changsha, to analyze their residential building energy consumption and thermal environment conditions. Based on Weather Tool calculation and analysis, the purpose of this research is to put forward the concept of Suitable Degree (SD), namely the applicability of the passive design. In addition, five cities’ SD of passive design technology had been analyzed from aspect of ventilation, temperature, solar radiation and envelope, then passive design strategies and methods of five cities’ residential building were discussed.

  10. Estimating urban flood risk - uncertainty in design criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newby, M.; Franks, S. W.; White, C. J.

    2015-06-01

    The design of urban stormwater infrastructure is generally performed assuming that climate is static. For engineering practitioners, stormwater infrastructure is designed using a peak flow method, such as the Rational Method as outlined in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines and estimates of design rainfall intensities. Changes to Australian rainfall intensity design criteria have been made through updated releases of the AR&R77, AR&R87 and the recent 2013 AR&R Intensity Frequency Distributions (IFDs). The primary focus of this study is to compare the three IFD sets from 51 locations Australia wide. Since the release of the AR&R77 IFDs, the duration and number of locations for rainfall data has increased and techniques for data analysis have changed. Updated terminology coinciding with the 2013 IFD release has also resulted in a practical change to the design rainfall. For example, infrastructure that is designed for a 1 : 5 year ARI correlates with an 18.13% AEP, however for practical purposes, hydraulic guidelines have been updated with the more intuitive 20% AEP. The evaluation of design rainfall variation across Australia has indicated that the changes are dependent upon location, recurrence interval and rainfall duration. The changes to design rainfall IFDs are due to the application of differing data analysis techniques, the length and number of data sets and the change in terminology from ARI to AEP. Such changes mean that developed infrastructure has been designed to a range of different design criteria indicating the likely inadequacy of earlier developments to the current estimates of flood risk. In many cases, the under-design of infrastructure is greater than the expected impact of increased rainfall intensity under climate change scenarios.

  11. Increasing resilience through participative flood risk map design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Spira, Yvonne; Stickler, Therese

    2013-04-01

    regarding participation was not the methods used for participation but the involvement of concerned lay persons not only in the design of the hazard and risk maps or the risk assessments itself but the cooperative elaboration of the risk assessment approach especially for the harbour area. Following these principles, flood risk maps were created in the underlying EU-project DANUBE FLOODRISK. In this ETC SEE project "DANUBE FLOODRISK - Stakeholder Oriented Assessment of the Danube Floodplains" (2009-2012), hazard and risk maps harmonized across borders for the Danube main stream were produced. This way the overall DANUBE FLOODRISK project contributed to Article 6 of the EU Floods Directive, the hazard and risk maps for international river basins, and provides with the involvement of the national and regional stakeholders the first step to the implementation of Article 7, the Flood Risk Management Plans. By testing the involvement of the broad public and local stakeholders, first exemplary steps were taken for local flood risk management planning. A first set of maps was created for an underlying hazard scenario of a 1-in-100 year flood affecting the city of Krems assuming a failure of the temporal flood protection due to the impact of a ship in the area of the pier. Moreover, both, hazard scenarios with and without a second line of defence were visualised. The set of maps includes (a) an evaluative risk map showing the risk qualitatively aggregated for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, (b) an evaluative risk map showing the risk qualitatively aggregated per square footage for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, (c) an evaluative risk map showing the risk quantitatively in monetary units per square footage for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, and (d) as well as (e) risk maps according to (a) and (b) without the second line of defence in order to communicate the effectiveness of temporal flood protection

  12. Sero-prevalence and risk factors study of brucellosis in small ruminants in Southern Zone of Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teklue, Teshale; Tolosa, Tadele; Tuli, Getachew; Beyene, Belay; Hailu, Birhanu

    2013-11-01

    This study reports a prevalence and risk factor survey of brucellosis in small ruminants in Southern Zone of Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia between October 2011 and April 2012 to determine the sero-prevalence of small-ruminant brucellosis and to identify associated risk factors for the occurrence of disease in small ruminants under extensive production system. Multistage random sampling was followed to select locations, flocks, and individual animals. Laboratory analysis of serum samples provided sero-prevalence estimates for flocks and geographic location. Information on risk factors at the individual and flock level was obtained by examination of individual animal and a questionnaire interview to flock owners. The overall individual animal-level sero-prevalence of brucellosis in small ruminants was 3.5 % and flock level sero-prevalence was 28.3 %, and the within-flock sero-prevalence was ranged from 0 % to 22.2 % based on the Complement Fixation Test. Multivariable logistic regression showed that the major risk factors for flock level sero-positivity were flock size and abortion history. This study showed that small-ruminant brucellosis is prevalent in the study area. Larger flock size and history of previous abortion in the flock were major risk factors identified for sero-positivity of small-ruminant brucellosis.

  13. Soil processes and functions in critical zone observatories: hypotheses and experimental design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banwart, S.; Bernasconi, S.M.; Bloem, J.; Blum, W.; Ruiter, de P.C.; Gaans, van P.; Riemsdijk, van W.H.

    2011-01-01

    European Union policy on soil threats and soil protection has prioritized new research to address global soil threats. This research draws on the methodology of Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs) to focus a critical mass of international, multidisciplinary expertise at specific field sites. These CZ

  14. 75 FR 60586 - Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone Designations; Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service 9 CFR Part 77 Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone... request for comments. SUMMARY: We are amending the bovine tuberculosis regulations regarding State and....aphis.usda.gov . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Alecia Naugle, Coordinator, National...

  15. 76 FR 61253 - Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone Designations; Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-04

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service 9 CFR Part 77 Tuberculosis in Cattle and Bison; State and Zone... request for comments. SUMMARY: We are amending the bovine tuberculosis regulations regarding State and... as modified accredited advanced for tuberculosis. DATES: This interim rule is effective October...

  16. Mapping forest fire risk zones with spatial data and principal component analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU; Dong; Guofan; Shao; DAI; Limin; HAO; Zhanqing; TANG; Lei; WANG; Hui

    2006-01-01

    By integrating forest inventory data with remotely sensed data, new data layers for factors that affect forest fire potentials were generated for Baihe Forestry Bureau in Jilin Province of China. The principle component analysis was used to sort out the relationships between forest fire potentials and environmental factors. The classifications of these factors were performed with GIS, generating three maps: a fuel-based fire risk map, a topography-based fire risk map, and an anthropogenic-factor fire risk map. These three maps were then synthesized to generate the final fire risk map. The linear regression method was used to analyze the relationship between an area-weighted value of forest fire risks and the frequency of historical forest fires at each forest farm. The results showed that the most important factor contributing to forest fire ignition was topography, followed by anthropogenic factors.

  17. Designing Digital Preservation Solutions: A Risk Management-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Barateiro

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Digital preservation aims to keep digital objects accessible over long periods of time, ensuring the authenticity and integrity of these digital objects. In such complex environments, Risk Management is a key factor in assuring the normal behaviour of systems over time. Currently, the digital preservation arena commonly uses Risk Management concepts to assess repositories. In this paper, we intend to go further and propose a perspective where Risk Management can be used not only to assess existing solutions, but also to conceive digital preservation environments. Thus, we propose a Risk Management-based approach to design and assess digital preservation environments, including:• the definition of context and identification of strategic objectives to determine specific requirements and characterize which consequences are acceptable within the identified context;• the identification, analysis and evaluation of threats and vulnerabilities that may affect the normal behaviour of a specific business or the achievement of the goals and conformance to the requirements identified in the context characterization; and, • definition of actions to deal with the risks associated with the identified threats and vulnerabilities.We generalize and survey the main requirements, threats, vulnerabilities and techniques that can be applied in the scope of digital preservation.

  18. POLAND IN AND OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONERISKS AND BENEFITS IN THE LIGHT OF NEW POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Dobrowolski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the benefits and risks of Poland adopting the euro in the light of current political and economic conditions. For this purpose, the following research methods were used: literature research, intuitive method and descriptive statistics. Poland has fulfilled the criteria for nominal convergence for two years, apart from participating in the ERM II mechanism, but the political situation in the country precludes the adoption of measures leading to the euro zone. The future shape of this zone is yet unknown, as its closer integration is planned. Theoretical analysis indicates that the process of globalization makes it difficult for medium-sized, open-economy countries to pursue autonomous monetary and exchange rate policy, so the loss of these instruments after the adoption of the euro should not jeopardize long-term economic growth, even in the case of asymmetric shocks. The market mechanisms of restoring the balance and fiscal policy may then be used. The economy will also benefit from the elimination of transaction costs and exchange rate risks in the euro zone. The analysis shows that it is possible to use the opportunity for faster GDP growth associated with the adoption of the common currency if the right economic policy is pursued. Adopting the euro may also incur costs. For banks it can be the loss of foreign exchange earnings and commissions on FX hedge transactions. For the economy it can be the possibility of speculative bubbles, as a result of excessive consumption growth, caused by possibly too low interest rates. Expected benefits should, however, outweigh any losses.

  19. Commentary: Risk Management and Reliability Design for Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Dennis L.; Cranwell, Robert M.; Hunter, Regina L.

    1999-05-28

    Where there is a significant actuarial basis for decision making (e.g., the occurrence of fires in single-family dwellings), there is little incentive for formal risk management. Formal risk assessments are most useful in those cases where the value of the structure is high, many people may be affected, the societal perception of risk is high, consequences of a mishap would be severe, and the actuarial uncertainty is large. For these cases, there is little opportunity to obtain the necessary experiential data to make informed decisions, and the consequences in terms of money, lives, and societal confidence are severe enough to warrant a formal risk assessment. Other important factors include the symbolic value of the structure and vulnerability to single point failures. It is unlikely that formal risk management and assessment practices will or should replace the proven institutions of building codes and engineering practices. Nevertheless, formal risk assessment can provide valuable insights into the hazards threatening high-value and high-risk (perceived or actual) buildings and structures, which can in turn be translated into improved public health, safety, and security. The key is to choose and apply the right assessment tool to match the structure in question. Design-for-reliability concepts can be applied to buildings, bridges, transportation sys- tems, dams, and other structures. The use of these concepts could have the dual benefits of lowering life-cycle costs by reducing the necessity for maintenance and repair and of enhancing the saiiety and security of the structure's users.

  20. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  1. 国家战略经济区风险和对策%Risks and Countermeasures of Economic Zones at the National Strategic Level

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高建国

    2011-01-01

    近2年国家批准了20个国家发展战略经济区.在这些地区,随各自自然环境的变化其自然灾害风险有所不同.该文基于对国家战略发展区域的历史(1949-2009年)灾情调查统计,构建了以人均损失、地均损失、损失占GDP的比重及人均GDP、地均GDP等5个指标为主的自然灾害风险评价体系.研究结果表明:天津市滨海新区、上海浦东新区为低度风险区;深圳市综合配套改革试验区、珠江三角洲地区、长江三角洲地区、辽宁沿海经济带、江苏沿海地区、沈阳经济区、武汉城市圈、黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为中度风险区;关中-天水经济区、海峡西岸经济区、广西北部湾、中部地区、长吉图开发开放先导区、海南国际旅游岛综合试验区为较高度风险区;成渝统筹城乡发展综合配套改革试验区、甘肃省、长株潭城市群、鄱阳湖生态经济区为高度风险区.该文针对各区域自然灾害风险特点提出了发展对策.%Twenty economic zones at the national strategic level have been approved in the last two years. Risks of national disaster vary according to different natural circumstances of each economic zone. Based on the survey of the history of disaster situation of the economic zones at the national strategic level from 1949 to 2009, the paper constructes natural disaster risk assessment system involving five indicators,per capita loss, per unit area loss, proportion of the loss in the total. GDP, per capita GDP and per unit area GDP. The results show that Binhai New Zone of Tianjin City and Pudong New Zone of Shanghai City are the low risk zones, Experimental Zone of Shenzhen City, Pearl River Delta Region, Yangtze River Delta Region, Coastal Economic Belt of Liaoning Province,Coastal Area of Jiangsu Province, Economic Zone of Shenyang City, Wuhan City Circle and Highly Efficient Ecologicai Economy Zone of Yellow River Delta are the middle risk zones

  2. A comparative analysis of specialization and extinction risk in temperate-zone bats.

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    Identifying the factors that influence the extinction risk of animals is essential in conservation biology because they help identify endangered species and provide the basis for their preservation.We present a comparative study that uses data from the literature on the diet and morphological specialization of European and North American bat species to investigate the effect of specialization on extinction risk. We focused on bats because many species are endangered and their high ecologic...

  3. Abrasive blasting agents: designing studies to evaluate relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbs, Ann; Greskevitch, Mark; Kuempel, Eileen; Suarez, Fernando; Toraason, Mark

    Workers exposed to respirable crystalline silica used in abrasive blasting are at increased risk of developing a debilitating and often fatal fibrotic lung disease called silicosis. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) recommends that silica sand be prohibited as abrasive blasting material and that less hazardous materials be used in blasting operations. However, data are needed on the relative risks associated with exposure to abrasive blasting materials other than silica. NIOSH has completed acute studies in rats (Hubbs et al., 2001; Porter et al., 2002). To provide dose-response data applicable to making recommendation for occupational exposure limits, NIOSH has collaborated with the National Toxicology Program (NTP) to design longer term studies with silica substitutes. For risk assessment purposes, selected doses will include concentrations that are relevant to human exposures. Rat lung burdens achieved should be comparable to those estimated in humans with working lifetime exposures, even if this results in "overloading" doses in rats. To quantify both dose and response, retained particle burdens in the lungs and lung-associated lymph nodes will be measured, as well as biochemical and pathological indices of pulmonary response. This design will facilitate assessment of the pulmonary fibrogenic potential of inhaled abrasive blasting agents at occupationally relevant concentrations.

  4. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and black carbon in intertidal sediments of China coastal zones: Concentration, ecological risk, source and their relationship

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xiaofei [School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China); Hou, Lijun [State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China); Li, Ye [School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China); Liu, Min, E-mail: mliu@geo.ecnu.edu.cn [School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China); Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China); Lin, Xianbiao; Cheng, Lv [School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China)

    2016-10-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and black carbon (BC) have attracted many attentions, especially in the coastal environments. In this study, spatiotemporal distributions of PAHs and BC, and the correlations between BC and PAHs were investigated in the intertidal sediments of China coastal zones. BC in sediments was measured through dichromate oxidation (BC{sub Cr}) and thermal oxidation (BC{sub CTO}). The concentrations of BC{sub Cr} in the intertidal sediments ranged between 0.61 and 6.32 mg g{sup −1}, while BC{sub CTO} ranged between 0.57 and 4.76 mg g{sup −1}. Spatial variations of δ{sup 13}C signatures in TOC and BC were observed, varying from − 21.13‰ to − 24.87‰ and from − 23.53‰ to − 16.78‰, respectively. PAH contents of sediments ranged from 195.9 to 4610.2 ng g{sup −1} in winter and 98.2 to 2796.5 ng g{sup −1} in summer, and significantly seasonal variations were observed at most sampling sites. However, the results of potential toxicity assessment indicated low ecological risk in the intertidal sediments of China coastal zones. Greater concentrations of PAHs measured in the sediments of estuarine environments indicated that rivers runoff may have been responsible for the higher PAH pollution levels in the intertidal sediments of China coastal zones. Pearson's correlation analysis suggested that pyrogenic compounds of PAH were significantly related to BC, due to that both BC and these compounds derived mainly from the combustion process of fossil fuels and biomass. Overall, increasing energy consumptions caused by anthropogenic activities can contribute more emissions of BC as well as PAHs and thus improve the importance of BC in indicating pyrogenic compounds of PAHs in the intertidal sediments of China coastal zones. - Highlights: • River runoffs were responsible for the high PAH pollution levels in the study area. • BC and PAHs derived mainly from the combustion process of fossil fuels. • BC was associated

  5. Risk-Targeted versus Current Seismic Design Maps for the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luco, Nicolas; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Hamburger, Ronald O.; Hooper, John D.; Kimball, Jeffrey K.; Kircher, Charles A.

    2007-01-01

    The probabilistic portions of the seismic design maps in the NEHRP Provisions (FEMA, 2003/2000/1997), and in the International Building Code (ICC, 2006/2003/2000) and ASCE Standard 7-05 (ASCE, 2005a), provide ground motion values from the USGS that have a 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Under the assumption that the capacity against collapse of structures designed for these "uniformhazard" ground motions is equal to, without uncertainty, the corresponding mapped value at the location of the structure, the probability of its collapse in 50 years is also uniform. This is not the case however, when it is recognized that there is, in fact, uncertainty in the structural capacity. In that case, siteto-site variability in the shape of ground motion hazard curves results in a lack of uniformity. This paper explains the basis for proposed adjustments to the uniform-hazard portions of the seismic design maps currently in the NEHRP Provisions that result in uniform estimated collapse probability. For seismic design of nuclear facilities, analogous but specialized adjustments have recently been defined in ASCE Standard 43-05 (ASCE, 2005b). In support of the 2009 update of the NEHRP Provisions currently being conducted by the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC), herein we provide examples of the adjusted ground motions for a selected target collapse probability (or target risk). Relative to the probabilistic MCE ground motions currently in the NEHRP Provisions, the risk-targeted ground motions for design are smaller (by as much as about 30%) in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, near Charleston, South Carolina, and in the coastal region of Oregon, with relatively little (<15%) change almost everywhere else in the conterminous U.S.

  6. Zoning Districts, This dataset designates the zoning district for geographical areas in Polk County, Wisconsin. The data set is a compilation of multiple interanal data sets including 'ZoningComp', 'ZoningShoreland', 'ZoneGenPur', and 'ZoningWet'., Published in 2007, 1:4800 (1in=400ft) scale, Polk County, Wisconsin.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Zoning Districts dataset, published at 1:4800 (1in=400ft) scale, was produced all or in part from Other information as of 2007. It is described as 'This dataset...

  7. 民航客机客货舱电缆设计%Civil Airplane Wiring Design for Cabin and Cargo Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈志达

    2015-01-01

    Referring to the specialty of civil airplane’ s cabin and cargo zone, this article has introduced the basic method of wir-ing design for cabin and cargo zone, which includes the main wiring channel design of cabin and cargo zone, the wiring channel disconnect design of cabin and cargo zone, door wiring design, bilge wiring.%结合民航客机客货舱的特点,介绍了客货舱电缆设计的基本方法,包括客货舱电缆主通道设计、客货舱电缆分离面设计、舱门电缆设计、舱底布线。

  8. Methods for flexible sample-size design in clinical trials: Likelihood, weighted, dual test, and promising zone approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Weichung Joe; Li, Gang; Wang, Yining

    2016-03-01

    Sample size plays a crucial role in clinical trials. Flexible sample-size designs, as part of the more general category of adaptive designs that utilize interim data, have been a popular topic in recent years. In this paper, we give a comparative review of four related methods for such a design. The likelihood method uses the likelihood ratio test with an adjusted critical value. The weighted method adjusts the test statistic with given weights rather than the critical value. The dual test method requires both the likelihood ratio statistic and the weighted statistic to be greater than the unadjusted critical value. The promising zone approach uses the likelihood ratio statistic with the unadjusted value and other constraints. All four methods preserve the type-I error rate. In this paper we explore their properties and compare their relationships and merits. We show that the sample size rules for the dual test are in conflict with the rules of the promising zone approach. We delineate what is necessary to specify in the study protocol to ensure the validity of the statistical procedure and what can be kept implicit in the protocol so that more flexibility can be attained for confirmatory phase III trials in meeting regulatory requirements. We also prove that under mild conditions, the likelihood ratio test still preserves the type-I error rate when the actual sample size is larger than the re-calculated one.

  9. Optimizing the design of vertical seismic profiling (VSP) for imaging fracture zones over hardrock basement geothermal environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiser, Fabienne; Schmelzbach, Cedric; Maurer, Hansruedi; Greenhalgh, Stewart; Hellwig, Olaf

    2017-04-01

    contribute less to the image quality as fracture zone azimuth increases. Our optimization methodology is best suited for designing future field surveys with a favorable benefit-cost ratio in areas with significant à priori knowledge. Moreover, our optimization workflow is valuable for selecting useful subsets of acquired data for optimum target-oriented processing.

  10. Designing a Supply Chain Network under the Risk of Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Jabbarzadeh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a supply chain design problem with the risk of disruptions at facilities. At any point of time, the facilities are subject to various types of disruptions caused by natural disasters, man-made defections, and equipment breakdowns. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear program which maximizes the total profit for the whole system. The model simultaneously determines the number and location of facilities, the subset of customers to serve, the assignment of customers to facilities, and the cycle-order quantities at facilities. In order to obtain near-optimal solutions with reasonable computational requirements for large problem instances, two solution methods based on Lagrangian relaxation and genetic algorithm are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approaches is shown using numerical experiments. The computational results, in addition, demonstrate that the benefits of considering disruptions in the supply chain design model can be significant.

  11. Optimal design of an internal monitoring program for personnel in the Chornobyl exclusion zone radwaste management industrial complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, O O; Medvedev, S Yu; Novikov, O E; Andreyev, V V

    2007-01-01

    Modern state and approach regarding organisation of individual internal dose monitoring of the personnel of industrial complex for radioactive waste management at the Chornobyl exclusion zone (CEZ) is presented. Sensitivity and adequacy of the acknowledged instrumental methods is considered taking into account the features of interpretation using indirect methods in the specific working conditions of industrial complex for radioactive waste management at the CEZ. The performed analysis enables clear recommendations to be made with regard to optimum design of an internal monitoring program for personnel, including application of specific techniques.

  12. Autoimmune hemolytic anemia as a risk factor of poor outcome in patients with splenic marginal zone lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Aniko; Molnar, Miklos Zsolt; Krenacs, Laszlo; Bagdi, Eniko; Csomor, Judit; Matolcsy, Andras; Demeter, Judit

    2009-12-01

    Splenic marginal zone lymphoma is a rare disease, accounting for 1% of all lymphomas. We reviewed our single center experience of 13 patients with splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL). Based on the prognostic model developed by Intergruppo Italiano Linfomi, 31% (4/13) of our patients had good, 38% (5/13) had intermediate and 31% (4/13) had a poor prognosis. The presence of two out of three prognostic factors (anemia, elevated LDH, low serum albumin) assignes the patient into the high risk category. In patients with anemia and an elevated LDH due to hemolysis, the outcome seems to be especially poor. Three out of 13 (23%) cases were complicated by autoimmune hemolytic anemia. All patients with autoimmune hemolytic anaemia (AIHA) died 7-28 months after the diagnosis. The mean follow-up time of those nine patients who are still alive is longer than 5 years (36-100 months). Patients with AIHA had significantly (p < 0.001) worse survival than those without AIHA. The main finding of our study is that the presence of AIHA is an adverse prognostic factor in SMZL.

  13. Quality by design: discussing and assessing the solid dispersions risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaves, Luise L; Vieira, Alexandre C C; Reis, Salette; Sarmento, Bruno; Ferreira, Domingos C

    2014-01-01

    The poor water solubility tops the list of undesirable physicochemical properties in the drug discovery and Solid Dispersions (SDs) has been frequently used to enhance dissolution of such compounds. Although, some challenges limit the studies of SD commercial application. During recent years, the Quality by Design (QbD) approach has begun to change drug development, and focus on pharmaceutical production, which shifted from an univariate empirical understanding for a systematic multivariate process. In this review, some possible variables during the development process, formulation and production of SDs were defined, introducing and applying the QbD concept. The proposed work presented important definitions as well as its application in the pharmaceutical product and process design, especially the challenges encountered during the development of formulations of poorly soluble drugs. In this aspect, the SD technique was deeply discussed, in which some important parameters during SD design and production were mentioned as method of production, polymers commonly used, methods for characterization and stability evaluation, in addition of biopharmaceutical considerations. Finally, a specific risk assessment for the design and production of SD and critical points were discussed, which was a positive evolution and may lead to better understanding of SD for a rational formulation.

  14. Formulation design for target delivery of iron nanoparticles to TCE zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ziheng; Acosta, Edgar

    2013-12-01

    Nanoparticles of zero-valent iron (NZVI) are effective reducing agents for some dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminants such as trichloroethylene (TCE). However, target delivery of iron nanoparticles to DNAPL zones in the aquifer remains an elusive feature for NZVI technologies. This work discusses three strategies to deliver iron nanoparticles to DNAPL zones. To this end, iron oxide nanoparticles coated with oleate (OL) ions were used as stable analogs for NZVI. The OL-coated iron oxide nanoparticles are rendered lipophilic via (a) the addition of CaCl2, (b) acidification, or (c) the addition of a cationic surfactant, benzethonium chloride (BC). Mixtures of OL and BC show promise as a target delivery strategy due to the high stability of the nanoparticles in water, and their preferential partition into TCE in batch experiments. Column tests show that while the OL-BC coated iron oxide nanoparticles remain largely mobile in TCE-free columns, a large fraction of these particles are retained in TCE-contaminated columns, confirming the effectiveness of this target delivery strategy.

  15. Financial risk analysis in the synthesis and design of processing networks: Balancing risk and return

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quaglia, Alberto; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

    2014-01-01

    The construction of a processing network is a corporate investment, that processing companies make with the goal of creating the conditions to increase their value. In a previous work, a computer-aided framework supporting the design of processing network under uncertainty has been presented (Qua...... and financial risk models. Through the solution of a small benchmark problem, the impact of financial factors on the optimal network configuration is presented and discussed....

  16. Cd pollution and ecological risk assessment for mining activity zone in Karst Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; He, J. L.; Wen, X. M.; Tan, H.

    2017-08-01

    The monitored soil samples were collected from farmland in the area with mining activity in Karst area in Liupanshui. In this article, moss bag technology and TSP were used simultaneously for Cd transportation and deposition in the study area. Geostatistics and GIS were then used for the spatial distribution of Cd in the soil. Afterwards, Cd pollution to the soil environment and human health was studied by using the geo-accumulation index and potential ecological risk index methods. The results indicated that atmospheric deposition is the major route of Cd pollution. A moderate to strong pollution of Cd in the area and the degree of potential ecological risk was in a high level in the study area. Furthermore, Cd pollution in Liupanshui may originate from mining activity and atmospheric deposition.

  17. Risk Management in Product Design: Current State, Conceptual Model and Future Research

    OpenAIRE

    Oehmen, Josef; Seering, Warren; Ben-Daya, Mohamed; Al-Salamah, Muhammad

    2010-01-01

    Risk management is an important element of product design. It helps to minimize the project- and product-related risks such as project budget and schedule overrun, or missing product cost and quality targets. Risk management is especially important for complex, international product design projects that involve a high degree of novel technology. This paper reviews the literature on risk management in product design. It examines the newly released international standard ISO 31000 “Risk managem...

  18. Nanosafety by design: risks from nanocomposite/nanowaste combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillard, Jacques X.; R'Mili, Badr; Moranviller, Daniel; Vignes, Alexis; Le Bihan, Olivier; Ustache, Aurelien; Bomfim, Joao A. S.; Frejafon, Emeric; Fleury, Dominique

    2013-04-01

    Risks associated with the end-of-life of nanomaterials are an issue that needs to be addressed so that the public perception and opinion, with regard to these emerging technological products, can effectively be supported by experimental evidences. In order to find new ecological ways to treat nanoproducts at their end-of-life, a new home-made demonstrator system was setup at INERIS, specifically designed to perform burning tests, coupled to a differential thermal analyzer to monitor the combustion kinetics. To assess nanoobject release during combustion, a high-performance nanocomposite polymer commonly used in the automotive industry, namely the polymeric compound acrylonitrile butadiene styrene matrix mixed with 3 wt% of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was tested. To assess the potential release of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) during the combustion with this tool, the particle size distribution in the fumes was measured using an electrical low pressure impactor, and CNTs were collected using an aspiration-based transmission electron microscopy grid sampler. One of primary objective of these preliminary tests described in this study consisted in validating whether CNT fibers can be released in the gas phase during the combustion of a polymeric matrix filled with CNTs. It was found indeed that MWCNT of about 12-nm diameter and 600-nm length can be released in the ambient environment during combustion of 3 % MWCNT ABS. Such information is critical to assess whether a nanoproduct can be deemed to be considered as "nanosafe by design" in its risk assessment.

  19. Danger zone: Men, masculinity and occupational health and safety in high risk occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stergiou-Kita, Mary; Mansfield, Elizabeth; Bezo, Randy; Colantonio, Angela; Garritano, Enzo; Lafrance, Marc; Lewko, John; Mantis, Steve; Moody, Joel; Power, Nicole; Theberge, Nancy; Westwood, Eleanor; Travers, Krista

    2015-12-01

    The workplace is a key setting where gender issues and organizational structures may influence occupational health and safety practices. The enactment of dominant norms of masculinity in high risk occupations can be particularly problematic, as it exposes men to significant risks for injuries and fatalities. To encourage multi-disciplinary collaborations and advance knowledge in the intersecting areas of gender studies, men's health, work and workplace health and safety, a national network of thirteen researchers and health and safety stakeholders completed a critical literature review examining the intersection between masculinities and men's workplace health and safety in order to: (i) account for research previously undertaken in this area; (ii) identify themes that may inform our understanding of masculinity and workplace health and safety and; (iii) identify research and practice gaps in relation to men's workplace health and safety. In this paper we present key themes from this review. Recommendations are made regarding: (i) how to define gender; (ii) how to attend to and identify how masculinities may influence workers' identities, perceptions of occupational risks and how institutionalized practices can reinforce norms of masculinity; (iii) the importance of considering how masculinities may intersect with other variables (e.g. historical context, age, class, race, geographical location) and; (iv) the added significance of present-day labour market forces on men's occupational health and safety.

  20. Dust-Metal Sources in an Urbanized Arid Zone: Implications for Health-Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Rico, Leticia; Meza-Figueroa, Diana; Gandolfi, A Jay; Del Río-Salas, Rafael; Romero, Francisco M; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes

    2016-04-01

    The available information concerning metal pollution in different dust sources and the health effects in children remains limited in Mexico. This study focuses on Hermosillo, which is an urbanized area located in the Sonoran Desert in which soil resuspension and dust emission processes are common. The metal content of arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb) were determined in three dust sources (playgrounds, roofs, and roads), each representing different exposure media (EM) for these elements. The metal levels in dust were found in the order of Mn > Cr > Pb > As with the highest metal content found in road dust. Despite the similar average metal distributions, principal component analysis shows a clear separation of the three EM with playground dust related to Cr and Mn and road dust to As and Pb. However, the geoaccumulation index results indicate that dust samples are uncontaminated to moderately polluted, except for Pb in road dust, which is considerably high. In addition, the enrichment factor suggests an anthropogenic origin for all of the studied metals except for Mn. In this context, the hazard index (HI) for noncarcinogenic risk is >1 in this population and thus represents a potential health risk. The spatial distribution for each metal on EM and the HI related to the marginality index could represent a more accurate decision-making tool in risk assessment studies.

  1. Epidemiological study on foot-and-mouth disease in cattle: seroprevalence and risk factor assessment in South Omo zone, south-western Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molla, B; Ayelet, G; Asfaw, Y; Jibril, Y; Ganga, G; Gelaye, E

    2010-10-01

    A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study was conducted in seven districts of the South Omo zone, south-western Ethiopia, between October 2008 and May 2009 with the objective of determining the seroprevalence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cattle and identifying the potential risk factors associated with the disease. In total, 770 cattle sera samples were collected and submitted to the National Veterinary Institute (NVI), Debre Zeit, Ethiopia, for screening using the 3ABC-ELISA. The overall seroprevalence of 8.18% (n=63) was recorded in the study. The highest district-level prevalence was observed in Bennatsemay district (30.2%), and the lowest prevalence was in Malle and Debub Aari districts, each with prevalence of 6.3%. The difference in seropositivity of FMD in the studied districts was found to be statistically significant. From the various risk factors analysed, age of animal, contact history with wild animals, distance of the herd from parks and wild animals' sanctuary and movement pattern of herds in search of pasture and water from area to area were found to be significantly associated (P<0.05) with the seroprevalence of FMD. The results of this study showed that FMD is an important cattle disease in the study areas. Thus, an appropriate control strategy has to be designed and applied, which could involve regulation of transboundary cattle movement, prevention of contact with wildlife and vaccination against the circulating virus strain. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  2. Zoning and compartmentalisation as risk mitigation measures: an example from poultry production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratananakorn, L; Wilson, D

    2011-04-01

    This paper discusses the application of compartmentalisation in the Thai commercial poultry industry. The concept was adopted to address Thailand's inability to export fresh poultry meat because of endemic avian influenza. Owing to the nature of compartmentalisation, implementation required a strong partnership between government and the private sector (the Thai poultry exporters). The paper describes the processes implemented to ensure that appropriate risk mitigation measures were in place and to guarantee the continued biosecurity of the compartments. Other Members of the World Organisation for Animal Health may be able to adapt the compartment system used in Thailand to their own similar situations and the formal international recognition of such systems would be beneficial.

  3. Electro-mechanical characteristics of myocardial infarction border zones and ventricular arrhythmic risk: novel insights from grid-tagged cardiac magnetic resonance imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, Dennis T.L.; Weightman, Michael J.; Baumert, Mathias; Tayeb, Hussam; Richardson, James D.; Puri, Rishi; Bertaso, Angela G.; Roberts-Thomson, Kurt C.; Sanders, Prashanthan; Worthley, Matthew I. [University of Adelaide, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Royal Adelaide Hospital and Discipline of Medicine, SA (Australia); Worthley, Stephen G. [University of Adelaide, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Royal Adelaide Hospital and Discipline of Medicine, SA (Australia); Royal Adelaide Hospital, Cardiovascular Investigational Unit, SA (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    To investigate whether grid-tag myocardial strain evaluation can characterise 'border-zone' peri-infarct region and identify patients at risk of ventricular arrhythmia as the peri-infarct myocardial zone may represent an important contributor to ventricular arrhythmia following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Forty-five patients with STEMI underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging on days 3 and 90 following primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Circumferential peak circumferential systolic strain (CS) and strain rate (CSR) were calculated from grid-tagged images. Myocardial segments were classified into 'infarct', 'border-zone', 'adjacent' and 'remote' regions by late-gadolinium enhancement distribution. The relationship between CS and CSR and these distinct myocardial regions was assessed. Ambulatory Holter monitoring was performed 14 days post myocardial infarction (MI) to estimate ventricular arrhythmia risk via evaluation of heart-rate variability (HRV). We analysed 1,222 myocardial segments. Remote and adjacent regions had near-normal parameters of CS and CSR. Border-zone regions had intermediate CS (-9.0 {+-} 4.6 vs -5.9 {+-} 7.4, P < 0.001) and CSR (-86.4 {+-} 33.3 vs -73.5 {+-} 51.4, P < 0.001) severity compared with infarct regions. Patients with 'border-zone' peri-infarct regions had reduced very-low-frequency power on HRV analysis, which is a surrogate for ventricular arrhythmia risk (P = 0.03). Grid-tagged CMR-derived myocardial strain accurately characterises the mechanical characteristics of 'border-zone' peri-infarct region. Presence of 'border-zone' peri-infarct region correlated with a surrogate marker of heightened arrhythmia risk following STEMI. (orig.)

  4. The Design and Implementation of a Prototype Surf-Zone Robot for Waterborne Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    developed and tested for mobility in a beachfront environment. Three wheel- designs were tested during fixed pattern tests on grass, concrete and sand. The...part of the internal electronics. To include the connectors in the design, the waterproof cylinder end caps are modified using CNC milling as shown... rubber coating (Plasti-Dip) and a liquid repellent treatment (Rust-Oleum Never Wet–multisurface). An FDM sparse part T5 was coated as depicted in Figure

  5. Failing States as Epidemiologic Risk Zones: Implications for Global Health Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschfeld, Katherine

    Failed states commonly experience health and mortality crises that include outbreaks of infectious disease, violent conflict, reductions in life expectancy, and increased infant and maternal mortality. This article draws from recent research in political science, security studies, and international relations to explore how the process of state failure generates health declines and outbreaks of infectious disease. The key innovation of this model is a revised definition of "the state" as a geographically dynamic rather than static political space. This makes it easier to understand how phases of territorial contraction, collapse, and regeneration interrupt public health programs, destabilize the natural environment, reduce human security, and increase risks of epidemic infectious disease and other humanitarian crises. Better understanding of these dynamics will help international health agencies predict and prepare for future health and mortality crises created by failing states.

  6. Characterization of backyard poultry production systems and disease risk in the central zone of Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton-West, C; Rojas, H; Pinto, J; Orozco, J; Hervé-Claude, L P; Urcelay, S

    2012-08-01

    Backyard poultry production systems (BPS) are an important and widespread form of poultry production. There is a common perception that biosecurity standards in BPS are generally poor and BPS are usually associated with animal diseases and zoonoses. In this study BPS were identified in the vicinity of six wetlands, having these a higher risk of presenting and introducing avian diseases such as HPAI and Newcastle disease, as defined by the national veterinary services, in to Chile's main poultry production area. BPS were characterized through a field questionnaire and the main areas covered by the survey were BPS structure, biosecurity and value chain. The BPS identified in this study share most characteristics on biosecurity, poultry management and product commercialization, but it was possible to identify a certain degree of variation within and among the study sites. BPS in Chile are similar to those in other regions, with a relatively small flock size (average 37 birds), a low level of biosecurity measures and lack of poultry disease management. Management findings include that most farmers used mixed/partial confinement, with low or no biosecurity and disease control measures in place. Eggs were the main output and were used mainly for home consumption or sale at local markets. Sick birds' treatment with drugs approved for other species or for human use could represent a risk to human health, owing to the possible presence of drug residues in poultry products. Despite the different structures of the poultry sector worldwide, BPS can play a major role in disease maintenance and spread because its management conditions characteristics and the lack of animal health services adapted to these production systems. This should be an alert message to the veterinary authorities to improve coverage of veterinary assistance and surveillance activities in backyard poultry production.

  7. Can helmet design reduce the risk of concussion in football?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M; Greenwald, Richard M; Beckwith, Jonathan G; Chu, Jeffrey J; Guskiewicz, Kevin M; Mihalik, Jason P; Crisco, Joseph J; Wilcox, Bethany J; McAllister, Thomas W; Maerlender, Arthur C; Broglio, Steven P; Schnebel, Brock; Anderson, Scott; Brolinson, P Gunnar

    2014-04-01

    Of all sports, football accounts for the highest incidence of concussion in the US due to the large number of athletes participating and the nature of the sport. While there is general agreement that concussion incidence can be reduced through rule changes and teaching proper tackling technique, there remains debate as to whether helmet design may also reduce the incidence of concussion. A retrospective analysis was performed of head impact data collected from 1833 collegiate football players who were instrumented with helmet-mounted accelerometer arrays for games and practices. Data were collected between 2005 and 2010 from 8 collegiate football teams: Virginia Tech, University of North Carolina, University of Oklahoma, Dartmouth College, Brown University, University of Minnesota, Indiana University, and University of Illinois. Concussion rates were compared between players wearing Riddell VSR4 and Riddell Revolution helmets while controlling for the head impact exposure of each player. A total of 1,281,444 head impacts were recorded, from which 64 concussions were diagnosed. The relative risk of sustaining a concussion in a Revolution helmet compared with a VSR4 helmet was 46.1% (95% CI 28.1%-75.8%). When controlling for each player's exposure to head impact, a significant difference was found between concussion rates for players in VSR4 and Revolution helmets (χ(2) = 4.68, p = 0.0305). This study illustrates that differences in the ability to reduce concussion risk exist between helmet models in football. Although helmet design may never prevent all concussions from occurring in football, evidence illustrates that it can reduce the incidence of this injury.

  8. 台风灾害风险区划模型%Risk zoning model of typhoon disasters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡波; 严甲真; 丁烨毅; 黄鹤楼; 赵伍杰

    2012-01-01

    Typhoons happen frequently with serious consequences,so it is important to assess their risk.This paper takes Ningbo city as the example,draws the zoning map of typhoon disaster for the city using a risk zoning model,which was built on the basis of the membership function and natural disaster risk theory,while considering the hazard,exposure and vulnerability of typhoons,and applying the GIS technology.The effectiveness of the model was verified by disaster levels.The results show that,the overall risk indices of Ninghai,Yinzhou,Yuyao,Fenghua,Xiangshan and Cixi are relatively higher in counties and urban districts in Ningbo,while the indices of the old city(Haishu,Jiangdong,Jiangbei districts),Zhenhai and Beilun are lower;the risk levels of typhoon disasters in the southeast coastal cities and towns and some mountain areas are high;disaster level and risk index has a good correlation,with the coefficient of determination reaching 0.7181 and the confidence interval passed 0.01.%台风灾害发生频率高,影响严重,是人类面临的全球性重大问题之一。对台风灾害进行科学、合理的风险评估显得尤为重要。以宁波市为研究对象,在隶属函数和自然灾害风险理论的基础上,综合考虑形成台风灾害风险危险性、暴露性和脆弱性,结合GIS技术建立了台风灾害风险区划模型,绘制了宁波市台风灾害风险区划图;并利用灾级指数对模型结果进行了验证。结果表明:宁波市各区、县的台风灾害风险指数中,宁海、鄞州、余姚、奉化、象山和慈溪台风灾害的总风险指数较大,老城区(海曙区、江东区、江北区)、镇海和北仑较小;宁波市东南沿海、城镇和部分山区台风灾害风险等级较高;灾级指数与台风风险指数的相关性较好,决定系数达到0.7181,且通过了0.01的置信区间。

  9. Research on Two Types of Buffer Zone Impact on Surrounding Office Space Environment in Winter in Cold Climate Zone-a Fieldwork in Architectural Design Institute Building of Tsinghua University, Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YeHao Song; JunJie Li; Ning Zhu; JiaLiang Wang; ShiMeng Hao

    2014-01-01

    Building buffer zone space is not only one of essential approaches for better mental quality of interior building space, but also an important factor that may influence interior thermal comfort and energy consumption. This study aims to analyze regulative advantages of buffer zone to the surrounding functional spaces. Based on a fieldwork test in a typical office building in cold climate zone in Beijing, China, the monitor data show interior physical performance in the Winter. The research selects two types of different buffer zones in the same building. One is a south⁃faced greenhouse which has large dimension with plenty of vegetation, and the other is a simple atrium in the middle of five floor building with mount of skylights. The factors and their influence to surrounding functional spaces and the whole building are found out from the comparisons of collected data by floor to floor monitor test on both buffer zones at the same time. The comparisons of two types of buffer zones conclude that the greenhouse is more effective to air quality regulation but not so clearly well⁃performed to thermal buffering as expected due to the dominate active central heating in the Winter. This fieldwork test results for building performance can be helpful for both architects and engineers in the early phase of sustainable design.

  10. 我国玉米自然灾害风险区识别研究%Study on identification of natural disaster risk zones of maize in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵俊晔; 张峭

    2013-01-01

    自然灾害严重影响和制约我国农业生产的持续稳定发展,识别主要作物自然灾害风险因子和风险区,对作物生产风险监测预警和风险防范及有效评估作物因灾损失有重大意义.基于区域自然灾害理论,构建了由致灾因子、孕灾环境因子和承灾体因子构成的作物自然灾害风险评价指标,利用1980-2010年全国各省市玉米产量数据和1991-2010年全国257个气象站点以玉米为承灾体的灾情数据,计算了省级单元不同因子自然灾害影响指数和灾害风险综合评价指数,揭示了我国玉米主要自然灾害的时空分布规律,识别了玉米自然灾害极高风险区、高风险区、中风险区、低风险区和可忽略风险区.结果表明,干旱是我国玉米产区主要自然灾害,其次是低温和风雹,干旱、洪涝、风雹、病虫害等多发于6-8月份,低温灾害多发于4-5月份;不同种类自然灾害大多具有连片发生的特点;自然灾害高风险区省份主要集中于北部和黄淮海平原玉米产区,同一级别风险区的风险影响因子不尽相同,在风险监测预警和防范中需区别对待.%Natural disasters seriously affect and restrict the sustained and stable development of agriculture in China. Identification of risk factors and risk zones of natural disasters for main crops is of great importance for risk early-warning, prevention and effective assessment of crops' losses in disasters. Based on the regional natural disaster theory, the crops'natural disaster integrated risk assessment index made of disaster-causing factors, hazard inducing environment factors and hazard bearing body factors was established. With data of yields and areas in maize of all the provinces of China during 1980 -2010 natural disaster situation data of maize recorded by 257 meteorological stations, different natural disaster affecting indices and integrated risk assessment index were calculated, spatiotemporal

  11. Implications of multiple risk factors for delineation of disease control zones: Case study on foot-and-mouth disease occurrence in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chrisostom, Ayebazibwe; Okurut, Ademun Anna Rose; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is the most economically important livestock disease worldwide. It is endemic in Uganda and most other African countries because of multiple risk factors including high livestock density, animal movements, proximity to wild animals, cross-border transactions, wind...... strategies to promote disease control and livestock trade in endemic countries was to introduce the concept of disease-free zones within which specific sanitary and market standards have to be met. In Africa, it is only Namibia, Botswana and South Africa that have ever had FMD free OIE-declared zones....... In pursuit of possibilities of beef export to EU and other markets within Africa by the year 2020, Uganda delineated two disease control zones (DCZs) in areas with large livestock populations and as a consequence high risk for FMD, thus requiring high capital investment. This paper highlights the multiple...

  12. Structural Design of Temperature-Rising Zone and Temperature-Falling Zone in Pusher Kiln%推板窑升降温段结构设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苏文生

    2011-01-01

    The pusher kiln is widely used to heat the electronic material with high temperature as a sintefing device. On the basis of the pressure distribution in the pusher kiln, the structural characteristics of the temperature-rising zone and the temperature-falling zone are introduced.%推板窑作为热工烧结设备,广泛应用于电子材料高温处理.本文从推板窑的压强分布特点人手,介绍了升降温段的结构特点.

  13. Sustainable and Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Disruption Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Irshad Mari

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable supply chain network design is a rich area for academic research that is still in its infancy and has potential to affect supply chain performance. Increasing regulations for carbon and waste management are forcing firms to consider their supply chains from ecological and social objectives, but in reality, however, facilities and the links connecting them are disrupted from time to time, due to poor weather, natural or manmade disasters or a combination of any other factors. Supply chain systems drop their sustainability objectives while coping with these unexpected disruptions. Hence, the new challenges for supply chain managers are to design an efficient and effective supply chain network that will be resilient enough to bounce back from any disruption and that also should have sufficient vigilance to offer same sustainability under a disruption state. This paper focuses on ecological sustainability, because an environmental focus in a supply chain system is more important and also links with other pillars of sustainability, as the products need to be produced, packed and transported in an ethical way, which should not harm social balance and the environment. Owing to importance of the considered issue, this paper attempts to introduce a network optimization model for a sustainable and resilient supply chain network by incorporating (1 sustainability via carbon emissions and embodied carbon footprints and (2 resilience by incorporating location-specific risks. The proposed goal programming (GP model optimizes the total cost, while considering the resilience and sustainability of the supply chain network.

  14. Response spectrum of seismic design code for zones lack of near-fault strong earthquake records

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-le; DOU Hui-juan; ZHU Xi; SUN Jian-gang

    2007-01-01

    It was shown from the study on the recently near-fault earthquake ground motions that the near-fault effects were seldom considered in the existing Chinese seismic code. Referring to the UBC97 design concept for near-fault factors, based on the collected world-widely free-site records of near-fault earthquakes ground motions classified by earthquake magnitude and site condition, the attenuation relationship expressions of the acceleration spectrum demand at the key points within the long period and moderate period were established in term of the earthquake magnitude and the site condition. Furthermore, the near-fault factors' expressions about the earthquake magnitude and the fault distance were deduced for the area lack of near-fault strong earthquake records. Based on the current Chinese Building Seismic Design Code, the near-fault effect factors and the modified design spectral curves, which were valuable for the seismic design, were proposed to analyze the seismic response of structures.

  15. Framework Design and Influencing Factor Analysis of a Water Environmental Functional Zone-Based Effluent Trading System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Han, Zhaoxing; Li, Shuang; Shen, Zhenyao

    2016-10-01

    The efficacy of traditional effluent trading systems is questionable due to their neglect of seasonal hydrological variation and the creation of upstream hot spots within a watershed. Besides, few studies have been conducted to distinguish the impacts of each influencing factor on effluent trading systems outputs. In this study, a water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems framework was configured and a comprehensive analysis of its influencing factors was conducted. This proposed water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems was then applied for the control of chemical oxygen demand in the Beiyun River watershed, Beijing, China. Optimal trading results highlighted the integration of water quality constraints and different hydrological seasons, especially for downstream dischargers. The optimal trading of each discharger, in terms of pollutant reduction load and abatement cost, is greatly influenced by environmental and political factors such as background water quality, the location of river assessment points, and tradable discharge permits. In addition, the initial permit allowance has little influence on the market as a whole but does impact the individual discharger. These results provide information that is critical to understanding the impact of policy design on the functionality of an effluent trading systems.

  16. Framework Design and Influencing Factor Analysis of a Water Environmental Functional Zone-Based Effluent Trading System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Han, Zhaoxing; Li, Shuang; Shen, Zhenyao

    2016-10-01

    The efficacy of traditional effluent trading systems is questionable due to their neglect of seasonal hydrological variation and the creation of upstream hot spots within a watershed. Besides, few studies have been conducted to distinguish the impacts of each influencing factor on effluent trading systems outputs. In this study, a water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems framework was configured and a comprehensive analysis of its influencing factors was conducted. This proposed water environmental functional zone-based effluent trading systems was then applied for the control of chemical oxygen demand in the Beiyun River watershed, Beijing, China. Optimal trading results highlighted the integration of water quality constraints and different hydrological seasons, especially for downstream dischargers. The optimal trading of each discharger, in terms of pollutant reduction load and abatement cost, is greatly influenced by environmental and political factors such as background water quality, the location of river assessment points, and tradable discharge permits. In addition, the initial permit allowance has little influence on the market as a whole but does impact the individual discharger. These results provide information that is critical to understanding the impact of policy design on the functionality of an effluent trading systems.

  17. Health-Promoting Interventions for Persons Aged 80 and Older Are Successful in the Short TermuResults from the Randomized and Three-Armed Elderly Persons in the Risk Zone Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gustafsson, S.; Wilhelmson, K.; Eklund, K.;

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To examine the outcomes of the Elderly Persons in the Risk Zone study, which was designed to evaluate whether it is possible to delay deterioration if a health-promoting intervention is made when an older adult (>= 80) is at risk of becoming frail and whether a multiprofessional group....... SETTING: Two urban districts of Gothenburg, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred fifty-nine communityliving adults aged 80 and older not dependent on the municipal home help service. INTERVENTION: A preventive home visit or four weekly multiprofessional senior group meetings with one follow-up home visit...... dependence in ADLs (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.14-3.33). No effect on frailty could be demonstrated. CONCLUSION: Health-promoting interventions made when older adults are at risk of becoming frail can delay deterioration in self-rated health and ADLs in the short term. A multiprofessional group intervention...

  18. Analysis, Design and Fabrication of centimeter-wave Dielectric Fresnel Zone Plate Lens and reflector

    CERN Document Server

    Mahmoudi, A; Mahmoudi, Ali; Azalzadeh, Reza

    2005-01-01

    Fresnel lens has a long history in optics. This concept at non-optical wavelengths is also applicable. In this paper we report design and fabrication of a half and quarter wave dielectric Fresnel lens made of Plexiglas, and a Fresnel reflector at 11.1 GHz frequency. We made two lenses and one reflector at same frequency and compare their gain and radiation pattern to simulated results. Some methods for better focusing action will be introduced.

  19. The Environmental Design of Working Spaces in Equatorial Highlands Zones: The Case of Bogotá

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana Carla Soares Gonçalves

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent empirical investigations have indicated that the majority of occupants in office buildings would appreciate contact with the external environment, especially in cities where the climate is mild for part of the year. Supported by the possibilities of adaptive thermal models, the design of naturally ventilated buildings has been elaborated since the decade of 1990s. More communal areas rather than private ones are demanded due to the importance of social interaction and knowledge transfer among employees. In this context, this paper investigates the possibility of daylight and thermal comfort in naturally ventilated working environments, located in cities of mild climatic conditions, by redefining the parameters of a façade’s design and exploring coupling strategies with the outdoors. For this purpose, the city of Bogotá (Latitude 4°7′ N, in Colombia, a place with great potential for passive strategies, is taken as the geographic context of this research, which is supported by fieldwork with occupants of 37 office buildings and analytical work. The survey revealed that being close to a window is valued by the majority. Furthermore, 50% would like to have informal areas and outdoor spaces attached to their working environments. In additithe analytical studies showed how the combination of a set of environmental design strategies, including a schedule for coupling and decoupling of indoor spaces with the outdoors and a variation of occupancy density, made thermal comfort possible in free running working spaces in Bogotá.

  20. Optimized Simulation Design of Double Glass Curtain Wall Shading System in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-Sha He; Lin-Sen Mu; Jie Shen

    2014-01-01

    The glass curtain wall is widely favored by the owners for its good appearance modeling effect. In using process, however, excessive energy consumption, low level indoor comfort and other problems of glass curtain wall are often exposed. Aiming at office buildings in hot Summer and cold Winter zone, taking the optimization of thermal comfort of double glass curtain wall in the summer and the reduction of building energy consumption throughout the year as the breakthrough point, using the method of energy simulation analysis, through changing the size of internal shading component in the simulated room, this paper analyzes and summarizes the variation law of its energy consumption value, to explore the relatively reasonable design plan of shading systems of the building with glass curtain wall.

  1. Near field and altered zone environmental report Volume I: technical bases for EBS design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilder, D. G., LLNL

    1997-08-01

    This report presents an updated summary of results for the waste package (WP) and engineered barrier system (EBS) evaluations, including materials testing, waste-form characterization, EBS performance assessments, and near-field environment (NFE) characterization. Materials testing, design criteria and concept development, and waste-form characterization all require an understanding of the environmental conditions that will interact with the WP and EBS. The Near-Field Environment Report (NFER) was identified in the Waste Package Plan (WPP) (Harrison- Giesler, 1991) as the formal means for transmitting and documenting this information.

  2. [Distribution Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Organochlorine residues in Surface Soil of Pearl River Delta Economic Zone].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Lei; Yang, Guo-yi

    2015-08-01

    The contents of 17 Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) of 605 samples collected from the surface of agriculture land from Pearl River Delta Economic Zone were determined by gas chromatography with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). The residual characteristics, sources and ecological risk of OCPs were also analyzed. The results showed that the detection rate of OCPs was 97.85%. The mean value of residue level was 20.67 microg x kg(-1), with the highest value of 649.33 microg x kg(-1). The main contaminants included DDTs, HCHs, endosulfan sulfate and methoxychlor. Compared with the soils of other cities, the levels of HCHs and DDTs in the studied area were arranged from low to middle levels. The OCPs were obviously regionally distributed. High content areas were mainly distributed in the central area with dense population, intense industrial and agricultural activities. The residue levels in different types of lands were significantly different: the arable land > garden land > woodland. Especially, the residue level was the highest in the vegetable land. Source analysis indicated that the HCHs might come from the use of lindane. DDTs in soil mainly came from early residues, but the dicofol might be the important source in partial area. Comparing the contents of HCHs and DDTs with our National Standard (GB 15618-2008), the qualified rates of the first and second standard of HCHs were 97.5% and 100%, respectively, and the DDTs were 95.5% and 97.7%, respectively. According to the risk assessment, DDTs may still have some potential ecological impact on the studied area.

  3. Potential health risk for residents around a typical e-waste recycling zone via inhalation of size-fractionated particle-bound heavy metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Li; Bao, Lian-Jun; Luo, Pei; Wang, Zhao-Yi; Li, Shao-Meng; Zeng, Eddy Y

    2016-11-05

    Health risk of residents dwelling around e-waste recycling zones has been a global concern, but has not been adequately examined. The present study was intended to evaluate the potential health risk of residents through inhalation exposure to size-fractionated particle-bound heavy metals in a typical e-waste recycling zone, South China. Anthropogenic metals (Zn, Se, Pb, Sb, As, and Cd) were predominantly enriched in fine particles (Dp1.8μm). Although the daily inhalation intakes of the target metals were significantly lower than those through food consumption and ingestion of house dust, the hazard quotients of total metals for adults (95% CI: 1.0-5.5) and children (95% CI: 3.0-17) were greater than 1. Moreover, the incremental lifetime cancer risks of five carcinogenic metals (Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd) for adults and children were 1.3×10(-3) (95% CI: 4.1×10(-4)-3.0×10(-3)) and 3.9×10(-3) (95% CI: 1.3×10(-3)-8.6×10(-3)), respectively, substantially higher than the acceptable cancer risk range of 10(-6)-10(-4). All these findings suggested that health risks were high for local residents dwelling around the e-waste recycling zone through inhalation exposure to particle-bound heavy metals, for both adults and children.

  4. Towards landscape design guidelines for reducing Lyme disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Laura E; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Thomas, James C

    2006-04-01

    Incidence of Lyme disease in the US continues to grow. Low-density development is also increasing in endemic regions, raising questions about the relationship between development pattern and disease. This study sought to model Lyme disease incidence rate using quantitative, practical metrics of regional landscape pattern. The objective was to progress towards the development of design guidelines that may help minimize known threats to human and environmental health. Ecological analysis was used to accommodate the integral landscape variables under study. Case data derived from passive surveillance reports across 12 counties in the US state of Maryland during 1996-2000; 2,137 cases were spatially referenced to residential addresses. Major roads were used to delineate 514 landscape analysis units from 0.002 to 580 km(2). The parameter that explained the most variation in incidence rate was the percentage of land-cover edge represented by the adjacency of forest and herbaceous cover [R(2) = 0.75; rate ratio = 1.34 (1.26-1.43); P landscape in forest cover (cumulative R(2) = 0.82), which exhibited a quadratic relationship with incidence rate. Modelled relationships applied throughout the range of landscape sizes. Results begin to provide quantitative landscape design parameters for reducing casual peridomestic contact with tick and host habitat. The final model suggests that clustered forest and herbaceous cover, as opposed to high forest-herbaceous interspersion, would minimize Lyme disease risk in low-density residential areas. Higher-density development that precludes a large percentage of forest-herbaceous edge would also limit exposure.

  5. Design and experiment of wireless power transfer systems via electromagnetic field near-zone region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wensong; Chen, Yinchao; Yang, Shuhui; Chan, Allan; Wang, Yi; Cao, Qunsheng

    2016-10-01

    This paper presents the fundamental principle, circuit implementation and measurement of wireless power transfer (WPT) technology through both Colpitts and Hartley oscillation prototype circuits. The Colpitts and Hartley oscillation prototypes are used to convert DC voltages into AC ones. Meanwhile, both half- and full-wave rectification circuits are designed correspondingly for AC/DC voltage conversion. In addition, the orientation and distance effects between the transmitting and receiving coils are investigated. The self-inductance, mutual-inductance and coupling coefficient for the coupled inductors are extracted as a function of distance and frequency by using an equivalent T-circuit network and a derived Z-parameter matrix. The proposed WPT systems operate at around 3.6 MHz and the transferred voltage is measured at the WPT receiving terminal. The measured results indicate that the two proposed WPT systems can operate properly for potential short-distance applications.

  6. Effects of Disruption Risks on Biorefinery Location Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Bai

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available While ever-growing bio-ethanol production poses considerable challenges to the bioenergy supply chain, the risk of refinery operation disruptions further compromises the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system. This paper applies discrete and continuous reliable facility location models to the design of reliable bio-ethanol supply chains so that the system can hedge against potential operational disruptions. The discrete model is shown to be suitable for obtaining the exact optimality for small or moderate instances, while the continuous model has superior computational tractability for large-scale applications. The impacts of both site-independent and dependent disruptions (i.e., due to flooding are analyzed in empirical case study for the State of Illinois (one of the main biomass supply states in the U.S.. The reliable solution is compared with a deterministic solution under the same setting. It is found that refinery disruptions, especially those site-dependent ones, affect both optimal refinery deployment and the supply chain cost. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show how refinery failure probability and fixed cost (for building biorefineries affect optimal supply chain configuration and the total expected system cost.

  7. Bilirubin and Stroke Risk Using a Mendelian Randomization Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun Ju; Jee, Yon Ho; Jung, Keum Ji; Hong, Seri; Shin, Eun Soon; Jee, Sun Ha

    2017-05-01

    Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of stroke. However, the nature of the relationship between the two remains unknown. We used a Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the causal effect of serum bilirubin on stroke risk in Koreans. The 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (stroke cases. Weighted genetic risk score was calculated using 14 SNPs selected from the top SNPs. Both rs6742078 (F statistics=138) and weighted genetic risk score with 14 SNPs (F statistics=187) were strongly associated with bilirubin levels. Simultaneously, serum bilirubin level was associated with decreased risk of stroke in an ordinary least-squares analysis. However, in 2-stage least-squares Mendelian randomization analysis, no causal relationship between serum bilirubin and stroke risk was found. There is no evidence that bilirubin level is causally associated with risk of stroke in Koreans. Therefore, bilirubin level is not a risk determinant of stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Mortality-Indexed Annuities. Managing Longevity Risk via Product Design

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries, and especially its aggregate form, i.e. the risk of unsystematic changes to general mortality patterns, bears a large potential for accumulative losses for insurers. As obvious risk management tools such as (re)insurance or hedging are less suited to manage an annuity provider’s exposure to aggregate longevity risk, the current paper proposes a new type of life annuities with ben...

  9. Anatomical risk models for paravalvular leak and landing zone complications for balloon-expandable transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condado, Jose F; Corrigan, Frank E; Lerakis, Stamatios; Parastatidis, Ioannis; Stillman, Arthur E; Binongo, Jose N; Stewart, James; Mavromatis, Kreton; Devireddy, Chandan; Leshnower, Bradley; Guyton, Robert; Forcillo, Jessica; Patel, Ateet; Thourani, Vinod H; Block, Peter C; Babaliaros, Vasilis

    2017-05-04

    Though several anatomical characteristics have been reported separately as risk factors for paravalvular leak (PVL) and landing zone (LZ) complications after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), multivariate risk models are needed. Patients that underwent balloon-expandable TAVR with multidetector cardiac computed tomography (MDCT) sizing were studied. MDCT images were analyzed and the association between anatomical factors and ≥mild PVL, ≥moderate PVL, and LZ complications (annular rupture, requirement of new permanent pacemaker, and coronary obstruction) was determined, and subsequently competing predictive models were developed and validated. A total of 316 consecutive TAVR patients were included. Median age was 82.0 years (74.0-87.0) and STS score was 8.3% (5.4-10.9). Factors associated with ≥mild PVL included TAVR with Sapien/Sapien XT vs. Sapien 3 (OR = 2.50, 95% CI = 1.24-5.07), LVOT nontubularity (OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 1.01-1.04), LZ calcification (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01), and low cover index (OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.91-0.96). Factors associated with LZ complications included LZ calcification (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01), leaflet asymmetry (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.02), and cover index (OR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.14). Predictive models for ≥mild PVL (AUC = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.66-0.77), ≥moderate PVL (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.65-0.84), and LZ complications (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.67-0.87) were created using procedural details and anatomical data from the MDCT. Clinical variables were not included as they were poorly correlated with the occurrence of PVL and LZ complications. For each outcome, the area under the curve (AUC) of the multivariate model was superior to the model consisting only of individual factors. A model using procedural/anatomical characteristics derived from MDCT predicts ≥mild PVL, ≥moderate PVL, and LZ complications post-TAVR. Incorporation of

  10. Evaluation of anionic surfactant concentrations in US effluents and probabilistic determination of their combined ecological risk in mixing zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Kathleen; Casteel, Kenneth; Itrich, Nina; Menzies, Jennifer; Belanger, Scott; Wehmeyer, Kenneth; Federle, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    Alcohol sulfates (AS), alcohol ethoxysulfates (AES), linear alkyl benzenesulfonates (LAS) and methyl ester sulfonates (MES) are anionic surfactants that are widely used in household detergents and consumer products resulting in over 1 million tons being disposed of down the drain annually in the US. A monitoring campaign was conducted which collected grab effluent samples from 44 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) across the US to generate statistical distributions of effluent concentrations for anionic surfactants. The mean concentrations for AS, AES, LAS and MES were 5.03±4.5, 1.95±0.7, 15.3±19, and 0.35±0.13μg/L respectively. Since each of these surfactants consist of multiple homologues that differ in their toxicity, the concentration of each homologue measured in an effluent sample was converted into a toxic unit (TU) by normalizing to the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) derived from high tier effects data (mesocosm studies). The statistical distributions of the combined TUs in the effluents were used in combination with distributions of dilution factors for WWTP mixing zones to conduct a US-wide probabilistic risk assessment for the aquatic environment for each of the surfactants. The 90th percentile level of TUs for AS, AES, LAS and MES in mixing zones were 1.89×10(-2), 2.73×10(-3), 2.72×10(-2), and 3.65×10(-5) under 7Q10 (lowest river flow occurring over a 7day period every 10years) low flow conditions. Because these surfactants have the same toxicological mode of action, the TUs were summed and the aquatic safety for anionic surfactants as a whole was assessed. At the 90th percentile level under the conservative 7Q10 low flow conditions the forecasted TUs were 4.21×10(-2) which indicates that there is a significant margin of safety for the class of anionic surfactants in US aquatic environments.

  11. Cross-sectional study on bovine mastitis and its associated risk factors in Ambo district of West Shewa zone, Oromia, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edilu J. Sarba

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: A cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors of mastitis in dairy cows. Materials and Methods: A total of 302 dairy cows were selected from all volunteer dairy farms in Ambo district of West Shewa Zone, Oromia region. Thorough clinical examination was made on all lactating cows for evidence of signs of clinical mastitis followed by collection of milk sample for examination of gross changes of milk secretion and California mastitis test. Results: About 126 (41.7% cows had mastitis, of which 9.9% (30/302 were clinical and 32.8% (96/302 were subclinical mastitis cases. The quarter level prevalence was 44.4% (536/1208, comprising 9.3% (112/1208, clinical and 32.8% (396/1208 subclinical forms of mastitis. In addition, 5.5% (66/1208 of teats were found to be blind on the clinical examination of udder and teat. The Chi-square analysis of intrinsic risk factors revealed significantly (p<0.05 higher prevalence of mastitis in crossbred cattle (47.2% than indigenous (15.4%, in cattle above 7 years (75% than less than 2-6 years of age (28% and cows given more than 4 calves (81.3% than those with less than 4 calves (31.1% irrespective to their lactation stage. There was also significantly (p<0.05 higher mastitis prevalence in larger (46.6% than smaller herds (24.2% and among the farming systems in semi-intensive (47.1% and intensive (42.3% than extensive (8.1% management system. Conclusion: This study indicated a higher prevalence of mastitis linked with several risk factors. Thus, early diagnosis and regular screening of cows for subclinical mastitis together with proper therapeutic management of clinical cases are of paramount importance. Moreover, control and prevention strategies should be designed and implemented with great emphasis given to risk factors to reduce bovine mastitis and its impact on milk production and food security.

  12. Cross-sectional study on bovine mastitis and its associated risk factors in Ambo district of West Shewa zone, Oromia, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarba, Edilu J.; Tola, Getachew K.

    2017-01-01

    Aim: A cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors of mastitis in dairy cows. Materials and Methods: A total of 302 dairy cows were selected from all volunteer dairy farms in Ambo district of West Shewa Zone, Oromia region. Thorough clinical examination was made on all lactating cows for evidence of signs of clinical mastitis followed by collection of milk sample for examination of gross changes of milk secretion and California mastitis test. Result: About 126 (41.7%) cows had mastitis, of which 9.9% (30/302) were clinical and 32.8% (96/302) were subclinical mastitis cases. The quarter level prevalence was 44.4% (536/1208), comprising 9.3% (112/1208), clinical and 32.8% (396/1208) subclinical forms of mastitis. In addition, 5.5% (66/1208) of teats were found to be blind on the clinical examination of udder and teat. The Chi-square analysis of intrinsic risk factors revealed significantly (pmastitis in crossbred cattle (47.2%) than indigenous (15.4%), in cattle above 7 years (75%) than less than 2-6 years of age (28%) and cows given more than 4 calves (81.3%) than those with less than 4 calves (31.1%) irrespective to their lactation stage. There was also significantly (pmastitis prevalence in larger (46.6%) than smaller herds (24.2%) and among the farming systems in semi-intensive (47.1%) and intensive (42.3%) than extensive (8.1%) management system. Conclusion: This study indicated a higher prevalence of mastitis linked with several risk factors. Thus, early diagnosis and regular screening of cows for subclinical mastitis together with proper therapeutic management of clinical cases are of paramount importance. Moreover, control and prevention strategies should be designed and implemented with great emphasis given to risk factors to reduce bovine mastitis and its impact on milk production and food security. PMID:28507411

  13. Veterans’ Health Care: Limited Progress Made to Address Concerns That Led to High Risk Designation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-15

    VETERANS’ HEALTH CARE Limited Progress Made to Address Concerns That Led to High-Risk Designation Statement of Debra A...Progress Made to Address Concerns That Led to High-Risk Designation What GAO Found The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has taken action to...establishing a task force, working groups, and a governance structure for addressing the issues that led to the high-risk designation. VA provided

  14. Experimental Study of the Cross-infection Risk due to the Cross-flow of Exhaled Airflows and a Plane Jet with the Protected Occupied Zone Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Guangyu; Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm; Xu, Chunwen

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study is to determine how the cross infection risk can be minimized between two persons with a plane jet of the protected occupied zone ventilation (POV) system. The exhaled air of infected people can be one of the sources of infectious respiratory viruses and bacteria....... The infectious exhaled air may from the respiratory activities such as the breathing, coughing, sneezing, and talking. A plane jet was formed in the POV system to separate the room into a source zone and a target zone in a climate chamber, in which tow breathing thermal manikins are employed to produce breathing...... airflows. The exhaled air velocity and the downward jet velocity were measured at a frequency of 10 Hz, by which the maximum velocity of exhaled airflow can be obtained. In this study, the promising results show that the downward plane jet of POV system can break the exhalation airflow from the source...

  15. Risk zoning of cold damage to banana in Hainan Island%海南岛香蕉寒害风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹海平; 王春乙; 张京红; 蔡大鑫; 刘少军; 车秀芬

    2013-01-01

    依据自然灾害风险分析理论和海南岛历年气候、DEM、耕地面积、香蕉种植面积和产量资料,借助GIS技术,对海南岛香蕉寒害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、易损性和防寒抗灾能力进行了分析和区划,在此基础上建立了综合的香蕉寒害风险指数,并将该指数应用于海南岛香蕉寒害的风险区划.结果表明,海南岛中部为香蕉寒害高和次高风险区,东部和南部为香蕉寒害次低和低风险区,其余地区为中等风险区.%Based on risk analysis theory of natural disasters and data of climate,DEM,cultivated area,banana planting area and yield of Hainan Island over years and GIS technology,the hazard of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environments and vulnerability and disaster prevention ability against cold damage to banana in Hainan Island were analyzed and zoned.Furthermore,a comprehensive risk index model of cold damage to banana was constructed to divide the risk zone of cold damage to banana in Hainan Island.Results show that the highest and second-highest risk zones of cold damage to banana are located in the middle areas of Hainan Island,while the lowest and second-lowest risk zones are located in the eastern and southern areas.

  16. Effect of Seismic Zone and Story Height on Response Reduction Factor for SMRF Designed According to IS 1893(Part-1):2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, P. Pravin Venkat; Gupta, L. M.

    2016-12-01

    Indian seismic code design procedure, which permit the estimation of inelastic deformation capacity of lateral force resisting systems, has been questioned since no coherence exists for determining the values of response reduction factor tabulated in code. Indian code at present does not give any deterministic values of ductility reduction factor and overstrength factor to be used in the design, because of the inadequacy of research results currently available. Hence, this study focuses on the variation of overstrength and ductility factors in steel moment resisting frame with different seismic zones and number of story. A total of 12 steel moment resisting frames were analyzed and designed. Response reduction factor has been determined by performing the non-linear static pushover analysis. The result shows that overstrength and ductility factors varies with number of story and seismic zones. It is also observed that for different seismic zones and story, ductility reduction factor is found to be different from overall structural ductility. It is observed that three buildings of different heights had an average overstrength of 63% higher in Zone-II as compared to Zone-V. These observations are extremely significant for building seismic provision codes, that at present not taking into consideration the variation of response reduction factor.

  17. Research on Risks Recognition and Management of Contractor on the Design Construction Pattern of Contract

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨鹏飞

    2013-01-01

    By combining with the implementation in expressway of traffic branch’s test point of design construction pattern of contract,the paper illustrates the risks from the bidding,the design of the construction graphic,the process dynamic design and construction process,the recognition of the unpredictable risks,the risk recognition,the evaluation,the prevention and the control of the risk management,so as to seek for the method which can be favorable for improving the design construction contract.

  18. Prevalence, risk factors, and major bacterial causes of camel mastitis in Borana Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regassa, Alemayehu; Golicha, Gelma; Tesfaye, Dawit; Abunna, Fufa; Megersa, Bekele

    2013-10-01

    A cross-sectional study was carried out from November 2010 up to April 2011 to estimate mastitis prevalence and associated risk factors and to assess its bacterial causes in traditionally managed camels in Borana Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Thus, 348 lactating camels were examined clinically, and subclinical cases were checked with California mastitis test (CMT). The overall prevalence of mastitis was 44.8 % (156/348), comprising clinical (19, 5.4 %) and subclinical (137, 39.4 %) cases. The quarter level prevalence of mastitis was 24.0 % (334/1,392). Of the total 1,392 examined teats, 30 were blind, and hence, from the 1,362 non-blind CMT-examined teats, 22.3 % (304/1,362) were CMT positive. Of the 304 CMT-positive samples, 264 were culture positive (197 Gram-positive, 41 Gram-negative, and 26 mixed isolates), and 40 were culture negative. The prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus was found to be the highest at both the animal (12.8 %, 39/304) and quarter level (2.9 %, 39/1,362). Regression analysis revealed higher likelihood of mastitis occurrence among camels from Dharito (OR = 3.4, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.8, 6.4), Gagna (OR = 3.4, 95 % CI = 1.8, 6.5), and Haro Bake (OR = 2.6, 95 % CI = 1.3, 5.1) than camels from Surupha. Likewise, there was higher chance of mastitis occurrence among camels at the early lactation stage (OR = 2.3, 95 % CI = 1.1, 4.6) and camels with udder/teat lesions (OR = 13.7, 95 % CI = 1.7, 109.4) than among camels at late lactation stage and camels with healthy udder/teats, respectively. In conclusion, this study reveals the current status of camel mastitis in Southern Ethiopia.

  19. Risk management in architectural design control of uncertainty over building use and maintenance

    CERN Document Server

    Martani, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    This book analyzes the risk management process in relation to building design and operation and on this basis proposes a method and a set of tools that will improve the planning and evaluation of design solutions in order to control risks in the operation and management phase. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between design choices and the long-term performance of buildings in meeting requirements expressing user and client needs. A risk dashboard is presented as a risk measurement framework that identifies and addresses areas of uncertainty surrounding the satisfaction of particularly relevant requirements over time. This risk dashboard will assist both designers and clients. It will support designers by enabling them to improve the maintainability of project performance and will aid clients both in devising a brief that emphasizes the most relevant aspects of maintainability and in evaluating project proposals according to long-term risks. The results of assessment of the proposed method and...

  20. Teaching Risk Analysis in an Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine Design Capstone Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 1 Teaching Risk Analysis in an Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine Design Capstone Course...introduction of risk analysis in an undergraduate aircraft engine design capstone course that is taught in concert with a companion course in airframe... design . The two preliminary designs , one for the engine and the other for the airframe, must be integrated as subsystems within a system to satisfy

  1. Prediction by numerical modeling of the risk zone along a riverside exposed to a dam failure; Prevision par modelisation numerique de la zone de risque bordant un troncon de riviere subissant une rupture de barrage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahdi, T.F.

    2004-07-01

    The risk zone associated with the surge wave following dam failure is defined in this study using a newly developed methodology that incorporates the conventionally used maximum water levels, the sediment movement in the river bed and the possibility of bank failure. Although the risk zone is typically defined as the inundated area, extensive lateral erosion that causes landslides could also accompany the inundation. This study demonstrates that the stability of the riverbank (in terms of geotechnical considerations) can influence the delineation of the risk area. The combined disciplines of geotechnics and hydraulics can be used to follow the evolution of the riverbed and riverbanks during a flood event. This study also presents a structured methodology for the St. Venant shallow water wave equations which were used to determine the area likely to be flooded without taking into account sediment transport. It also discusses aspects of the sediment transport theory. Fluvial erosion and lateral bank failure are the basic physical processes responsible for bank retreat. The minimum energy dissipation rate theory is applied for fluvial erosion, while Bishop's modified method is used to analyze slope stability when evaluating lateral bank failures. A numerical modeling of flows over movable beds is presented along with a review of some of the available numerical models. A diagnostic phase that provides information needed to qualify the extent of the damage after a flood is also presented. Some of the numerical models to evaluate risk area were validated on a portion of the HaHa River which was affected in the 1996 Saguenay flood. The new methodology, applied to the Outaouais River at Notre Dame du Nord in Quebec, produces a risk area much greater than that obtained when only the inundated area is considered.

  2. The design and implementation of a semi-autonomous surf-zone robot using advanced sensors and a common robot operating system

    OpenAIRE

    Hickle, Jason.; Halle, Steven

    2011-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A semi-autonomous vehicle, MONTe, was designed, modeled and tested for deployment and operation in a surf-zone coastal environment. The MONTe platform was designed to use unique land based locomotion that incorporates wheel-legs(WhegsTM) and a tail. Semi-autonomy was realized with data from onboard sensors and implemented through open source Robot Operating System (ROS), hosted on an Ubuntu Linux based processor. Communications vi...

  3. Designing trials for pressure ulcer risk assessment research: methodological challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balzer, K; Köpke, S; Lühmann, D; Haastert, B; Kottner, J; Meyer, G

    2013-08-01

    For decades various pressure ulcer risk assessment scales (PURAS) have been developed and implemented into nursing practice despite uncertainty whether use of these tools helps to prevent pressure ulcers. According to current methodological standards, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are required to conclusively determine the clinical efficacy and safety of this risk assessment strategy. In these trials, PURAS-aided risk assessment has to be compared to nurses' clinical judgment alone in terms of its impact on pressure ulcer incidence and adverse outcomes. However, RCTs evaluating diagnostic procedures are prone to specific risks of bias and threats to the statistical power which may challenge their validity and feasibility. This discussion paper critically reflects on the rigour and feasibility of experimental research needed to substantiate the clinical efficacy of PURAS-aided risk assessment. Based on reflections of the methodological literature, a critical appraisal of available trials on this subject and an analysis of a protocol developed for a methodologically robust cluster-RCT, this paper arrives at the following conclusions: First, available trials do not provide reliable estimates of the impact of PURAS-aided risk assessment on pressure ulcer incidence compared to nurses' clinical judgement alone due to serious risks of bias and insufficient sample size. Second, it seems infeasible to assess this impact by means of rigorous experimental studies since sample size would become extremely high if likely threats to validity and power are properly taken into account. Third, means of evidence linkages seem to currently be the most promising approaches for evaluating the clinical efficacy and safety of PURAS-aided risk assessment. With this kind of secondary research, the downstream effect of use of PURAS on pressure ulcer incidence could be modelled by combining best available evidence for single parts of this pathway. However, to yield reliable modelling

  4. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    OpenAIRE

    David M. Zalk; Ton Spee; Matt Gillen; Lentz, Thomas J.; Andrew Garrod; Paul Evans; Paul Swuste

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social...

  5. The adoption and design of Enterprise Risk Management practices : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paape, L.; Speklé, R.F.

    2012-01-01

    We examine (1) the extent of enterprise risk management (ERM) implementation and the factors that are associated with cross-sectional differences in the level of ERM adoption, and (2) specific risk management design choices and their effect on perceived risk management effectiveness. Broadly consist

  6. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    OpenAIRE

    Zalk, David M.; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social ...

  7. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  8. Care zoning. A pragmatic approach to enhance the understanding of clinical needs as it relates to clinical risks in acute in-patient unit settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Kris; Guy, Stuart; Stewart, Linda; Ayling, Mark; Miller, Graham; Anthony, Anne; Bajuk, Anne; Brun, Jo Le; Shearer, Dianne; Gregory, Rebecca; Thomas, Matthew

    2011-01-01

    The process of risk assessment which should inform and help identify clinical needs is often seen as a tick box and task-focussed approach. While on the surface this provides a sense of security that forms have been completed, we often fail to communicate in a meaningful manner about the clinical needs identified, which would assist in supporting the care planning delivery processes. A clinical practice improvement (CPI) project implemented a care zoning framework as an evidenced-based process that provides pragmatic support to nurses who are required to continually assess, implement, and evaluate plans to address clinical need across three acute mental health inpatient settings. Risk descriptors informed by the New South Wales (NSW) Mental Health Assessment & Outcome Tools (MHAOT) criteria were developed and described in behavioural contexts in order to improve the project's reliability and translation. A pragmatic traffic light tool was used to share clinical information across three agreed care zones, red (high clinical need), amber (medium clinical need), and green (low clinical need). Additionally nurses were asked to utilise a shift review form in the context of supporting the recording of care zoning and promoting action-orientated note writing. The introduction of care zoning has enthused the nursing teams and the mental health service to adopt care zoning as a supervisory framework that increases their capacity to communicate clinical needs, share information, and gain invaluable support from one another in addressing clinical needs. This includes increased opportunities for staff to feel supported in asking for assistance in understanding and addressing complex clinical presentations.

  9. Quality-by-Design II: Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to the Formulation of Ciprofloxacin Tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg; Kona, Ravikanth; Fahmy, Raafat; Hoag, Stephen W

    2016-04-01

    Qualitative risk assessment methods are often used as the first step to determining design space boundaries; however, quantitative assessments of risk with respect to the design space, i.e., calculating the probability of failure for a given severity, are needed to fully characterize design space boundaries. Quantitative risk assessment methods in design and operational spaces are a significant aid to evaluating proposed design space boundaries. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a relatively simple strategy for design space definition using a simplified Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. This paper builds on a previous paper that used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) qualitative risk assessment and Plackett-Burman design of experiments to identity the critical quality attributes. The results show that the sequential use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments can focus the design of experiments on a reduced set of critical material and process parameters that determine a robust design space under conditions of limited laboratory experimentation. This approach provides a strategy by which the degree of risk associated with each known parameter can be calculated and allocates resources in a manner that manages risk to an acceptable level.

  10. The dentin thickness remaining in the risk zone of mandibular molars after cervical preflaring with four methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila Leite PINTO

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Cervical preflaring is an important step of the canal system instrumentation, but can lead to excessive enlargement or root perforation. Objective Evaluate the remaining dentin thickness in the mandibular molars of mesial roots using cone beam computed tomography: Gates-Glidden (crown-down; Gates-Glidden (step-back; LA Axxess and Easy Pro-Design. Material and method Were selected 40 lower molars mesial roots, which were scanned in a cone beam CT scanner before and after preparation. Were obtained five sections of the CT images with an interval of 1 mm from the furcation, and measured the thickness variation between the root canal to the root external portion in analysis software. Result The evaluation of the different levels showed no significance within the same group for the Gates-Glidden group. On the other hand, were observed difference for LA Axxess (p=0.002 and Easy Pro-Design (p=0.005. In the intergroup analysis, were observed difference in all levels, especially for Gates-Glidden in the ascendant order (ANOVA and Tukey. Conclusion Within the limitations of these study, is possible to conclude that the protocol with greater wear in the cervical risk area was the Gates-Glidden in step-back sequence, as the other groups were equivalent (p>0.05.

  11. Analysis of Meteorological Disaster Risk Zoning Based on Open GIS%开源GIS支持下的气象灾害风险区划分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱浩; 樊彦国; 武腾腾

    2012-01-01

    近年来气象灾害频繁发生,给我国人民生活、经济发展带来严重威胁。灾害风险区划分析作为防灾减灾的基础工作,在我国逐渐展开。为探索一种基于开源GIS的县级区域气象灾害风险区划分析技术方案,首先分析开源GIS的发展状况,探讨了开源GIS的质量、性能及应用中需注意的法律因素等,而后以东营市河口区为例,选择QGIS、ILWIS等开源软件,基于区域灾害系统论构建不同气象灾害的分析模型及综合气象灾害分析模型,进行县级区域气象灾害风险区划分析,最终编制实验区气象灾害风险区划分级图。%In recent years, meteorological disasters occur frequently, and pose a serious threat to the people' s live and economic development. Disaster risk zoning analysis as the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation work, is studied in our country. For exploring a technical method for county meteorological disaster risk zoning based on open GIS, this thesis first analyzes the development of open GIS, and ex- plores the quality, performance and the legal factors need to be noticed in the application of open GIS. Then, it takes Hekou of Dongying city as the experimental area, uses open GIS software such as QGIS, ILWIS, constructs various and total reasonable model for meteorological disaster risk assessment based on the regional disaster system theory, does the county regional meteorological disaster risk zoning analysis and completes the preparation of the experimental zone meteorological disaster risk zoning classification map.

  12. An Introduction to Risk with a Focus on Design Diversity in the Stockpile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noone, Bailey C [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-13

    The maintenance and security of nuclear weapons in the stockpile involves decisions based on risk analysis and quantitative measures of risk. Risk is a factor in all decisions, a particularly important factor in decisions of a large scale. One example of high-risk decisions we will discuss is the risk involved in design diversity within the stockpile of nuclear weapons arsenal. Risk is defined as 'possibility of loss or injury' and the 'degree of probability of such loss' (Kaplan and Garrick 12). To introduce the risk involved with maintaining the weapons stockpile we will draw a parallel to the design and maintenance of Southwest Airlines fleet of Boeing 737 planes. The clear benefits for cost savings in maintenance of having a uniform fleet are what historically drove Southwest to have only Boeing 737s in their fleet. Less money and resources are need for maintenance, training, and materials. Naturally, risk accompanies those benefits. A defect in a part of the plane indicates a potential defect in that same part in all the planes of the fleet. As a result, safety, business, and credibility are at risk. How much variety or diversity does the fleet need to mitigate that risk? With that question in mind, a balance is needed to accommodate the different risks and benefits of the situation. In a similar way, risk is analyzed for the design and maintenance of nuclear weapons in the stockpile. In conclusion, risk must be as low as possible when it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk, and to help balance options in stockpile stewardship.

  13. An Analysis of Risk and Function Information in Early Stage Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos, Francesca; Tumer, Irem; Grantham, Katie; VanWie, Michael; Stone, Robert

    2005-01-01

    The concept of function offers a high potential for thinking and reasoning about designs as well as providing a common thread for relating together other design information. This paper focuses specifically on the relation between function and risk by examining how this information is addressed for a design team conducting early stage design for space missions. Risk information is decomposed into a set of key attributes which are then used to scrutinize the risk information using three approaches from the pragmatics sub-field of linguistics: i) Gricean, ii) Relevance Theory, and Functional Analysis. Results of this linguistics-based approach descriptively account for the context of designer communication with respect to function and risk, and offer prescriptive guidelines for improving designer communication.

  14. Assessment Design and Cheating Risk in Online Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Oskar R.; Lambrinos, James; Buffolino, Judy

    2010-01-01

    Many consider online courses to be an inferior alternative to traditional face-to-face (f2f) courses because exam cheating is thought to occur more often in online courses. This study examines how the assessment design in online courses contributes to this perception. Following a literature review, the assessment design in a sample of online…

  15. System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Smith, Natasha L.; Zang, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

  16. Health Risk Assessment of Zone 7 Contaminated with Benzene in the Environmental Liability Generated by the “March 18th Ex-Refinery” in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Villanueva Luis Antonio

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Benzene is a constituent of oil regarded as a potential carcinogen, and therefore a dangerous compound. Its risk increases when spills occur, added to the effect of gravity and high mobility, it’s infiltrated into the ground, reaching the phreatic area until dissolved, contaminating the water. The objective of this research was to evaluate the health risk of environmental liabilities caused by the contamination with benzene in the "Ex-refinery March 18" in Mexico City. For twenty years were carried out remediation work –which started since 2008– and today this space has been converted into a recreational park. This environmental liability is divided into seven zones for purposes of remediation, although in this case only was considered the 7 zone. It also, took into account only the concentration of this hydrocarbon (average, percentil 75 and 95 present in the soil. The results, –from a total of 642 samples from 122 soil profiles–, before the remediation –biospray with vapor extraction–, showed a health risk by depth between 1.2 to 7.2 m, from 1.69E–07 to 1.2 1.25E–05 m to 4.8 m, which coincides with the phreatic level of aquitard, was the place where the highest level of health risk is present. After remediation, the measurements yielded 4.07E–07 to 1.2 m and 3.85E–07 to 4.8 m. These values indicate that the mass of benzene before decontamination exceeded the risk considered acceptable, 1.0E–06 at a depth of 4.8 m; after that, reductions below the acceptable risk were achieved, which shows that the remnant hydrocarbon does not represent a health risk.

  17. CoCo design as a risk preventive tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Flannery, M.

    2011-01-01

    Contingent Convertible (CoCo) bonds have been suggested as a way to ensure that banks keep aside enough capital to help them through financial crises. This column proposes a market-triggered CoCo buffer to maintain risk incentives during periods of high leverage. It argues that this will also activa

  18. Experimental designs and risk assessment in combination toxicology: Panel discussion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henschler, D.; Bolt, H.M.; Jonker, D.; Pieters, M.N.; Groten, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    Advancing our knowledge on the toxicology of combined exposures to chemicals and implementation of this knowledge in guidelines for health risk assessment of such combined exposures are necessities dictated by the simple fact that humans are continuously exposed to a multitude of chemicals. A prereq

  19. Experimental designs and risk assessment in combination toxicology: Panel discussion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henschler, D.; Bolt, H.M.; Jonker, D.; Pieters, M.N.; Groten, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    Advancing our knowledge on the toxicology of combined exposures to chemicals and implementation of this knowledge in guidelines for health risk assessment of such combined exposures are necessities dictated by the simple fact that humans are continuously exposed to a multitude of chemicals. A

  20. Key risk attributes in the perception of engineering design options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grindrod, P.; Waters, D.J.; Yousaf, F.A. [QuantiSci, Oxon (Germany); Takase, H. [JGC Corp., Yokohama (Japan)

    1996-12-01

    The design of an engineered barrier system (EBS) for the containment of radioactive waste buried at depth incorporates a wide range of decisions based on quantitative engineering science, site specific hydrological information and expert judgement. Even at the concept design and planning stage of the EBS, there may be some key alternatives or choices which, though usually considered from an executive engineering perspective, may have a large impact upon the success of the programme as a whole. Therefore it is of interest to ask {open_quotes}what are the key attributes?{close_quotes} of the design process from the perspective of those experts working in the perception/communication fields, as well as the supporting research assessments and programmes. This involves the consideration of subjective expert opinions in various disciplines, and the identification of differences in the structure of their cognitive reasoning regarding the EBS. This report describes how a group of experts responded to a range of EBS designs.

  1. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  2. Buffer Zone Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    New requirements for buffer zones and sign posting contribute to soil fumigant mitigation and protection for workers and bystanders. The buffer provides distance between the pesticide application site and bystanders, reducing exposure risk.

  3. Social creation of Risk: Flood and Land Subsidence in Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone, México (case study)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarate-Del Valle, P. F.; Vargas Del Río, D.

    2010-12-01

    Sanitary sewer of Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone (GMZ) is a project designed in early 1960s for discharges of one million inhabitants, precipitation forecast based in return periods of 25 years, and inflow coefficients based in agricultural land use for areas not yet urbanized. However, population increase —over 400% in 50 years— and associated urbanization modified original design conditions and present discharges have been doubled, exceeding its capacity. On the other hand, the lowest site of GMZ corresponds to the bed of the river San Juan de Dios (1488 m asl) in the historical center of Guadalajara City; meaning it that the pluvial waters in GMZ —because of the lack of an adequate sewer and the presence of physical barriers like buildings, streets, etc.— run superficially. As a consequence, seasonally floods in many places of the GMZ are common. GMZ (20° 40.5’N, 103°20.8’W; ~700 km2; ~4.5M inhabitants; ~1520 m asl in western Mexico) is located 25 km (N90°) far from La Primavera volcanic complex (LP). LP was emplaced at Late Pleistocene and it is made of lavas, air-fall pumice and ash flows of rhyolitic composition knowed as Tala Tuff (TT): an aphyric non welded ash flow erupted by LP, composed by glassy or aphanitic material pumice dominant (> 90%), with a lesser proportion of sand-sized clasts, lythic gravel and broken crystals. Outcrops of LP extend to the basins surrounding it including the basement of most of the GMZ. Maximum thickness of TT is close to 600 m near LP, at western and southern part of GMZ, whereas in northern and eastern GMZ it can be only a few meters. Interaction of drainage and lithology of TT in GMZ conforms an erosional pattern with dendritic drainage pattern and development of creeks- Many of these creeks have been used as sanitary landfills for municipal waste of refilled with lack of control or selection of the fill material; while new residential developments were constructed over them. In this context, besides the

  4. Atmospheric deposition of trace elements around point sources and human health risk assessment. I: Impact zones around a lead source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moseholm, L.; Larsen, Erik Huusfeldt; Andersen, B.

    1992-01-01

    The deposition of lead was monitored over 8 years in the area around a car battery factory north of Copenhagen, Denmark. The area also has heavy traffic. Deposition was measured by in-situ grown vegetables, transplant grass culture biomonitors, bulk deposition and soil samples. Three impact zones...

  5. An Adaptive Design Methodology for Reduction of Product Development Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Pakala, Hara Gopal Mani; Kvsvn, Dr Raju; Khan, Dr Ibrahim; 10.5121/ijasuc.2011.2303

    2011-01-01

    Embedded systems interaction with environment inherently complicates understanding of requirements and their correct implementation. However, product uncertainty is highest during early stages of development. Design verification is an essential step in the development of any system, especially for Embedded System. This paper introduces a novel adaptive design methodology, which incorporates step-wise prototyping and verification. With each adaptive step product-realization level is enhanced while decreasing the level of product uncertainty, thereby reducing the overall costs. The back-bone of this frame-work is the development of Domain Specific Operational (DOP) Model and the associated Verification Instrumentation for Test and Evaluation, developed based on the DOP model. Together they generate functionally valid test-sequence for carrying out prototype evaluation. With the help of a case study 'Multimode Detection Subsystem' the application of this method is sketched. The design methodologies can be compar...

  6. Usefulness of residual ischemic myocardium within prior infarct zone for identifying patients at high risk late after acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, K A; Weiss, R M; Clements, J P; Wackers, F J

    1987-07-01

    This study examines the prognostic implications of ischemia within the territory of a prior acute myocardial infarction (AMI) vs ischemia at a distance, which develops late after AMI. Sixty-one consecutive patients who underwent both exercise thallium-201 (TI-201) imaging and cardiac catheterization for evaluation of chest pain that developed after discharge from the hospital for AMI form the study group. Mean interval between infarction to the TI-201 study was 10 +/- 17 months. Initial and 2-hour delay TI-201 images were analyzed quantitatively to determine the presence and location (within vs outside the prior infarct zone) of TI-201 redistribution, a marker of ischemic viable myocardium. TI-201 imaging results were separated into 3 groups based on presence and location of TI-201 redistribution: no significant TI-201 redistribution was found in 16 patients; in 29, TI-201 redistribution was confined to the infarct zone; and in 16, TI-201 redistribution was outside the infarct zone. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to examine the comparative ability of TI-201 results and other patient variables to predict cardiac events. For total cardiac events (cardiac death, recurrent nonfatal AMI, unstable angina and coronary revascularization), both the presence of any TI-201 redistribution and multivessel angiographic coronary artery disease were significant predictors. However, when coronary revascularization was excluded as an endpoint, TI-201 redistribution limited to the prior infarct zone was the only significant predictor of cardiac events. All 8 cardiac events occurred in patients with T1-201 redistribution limited to the infart zone.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  7. Yungay: recent tendencies and spatial perceptions in an andean risk zone Yungay: tendencias recientes y percepciones espaciales en una zona andina de riesgo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Haller

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The following paper focuses on the question, how Andean urban risk zones are urbanized and perceived various years after a disaster. The mortal 1970 debris avalanche from Mount Huascarán buried 5,000 inhabitants in the Peruvian town of Yungay. Four decades later, 9,500 people are living again in the risk zone beside the Yungay memorial. It is shown, that the dangers, produced by the Mount Huascarán, are still perceived. On the other hand, the perception of Yungay’s exposure to risk is dramatically decreasing.El siguiente artículo se centra en la reurbanización y percepción de las zonas andinas de riesgo, varios años después de ocurrido un desastre. En 1970, la ciudad peruana de Yungay fue destruida a causa de una avalancha de hielo, nieve y rocas que se desprendió del nevado Huascarán. Murieron 5000 personas, es decir el 95 por ciento de la población urbana. Cuatro décadas después, la zona es habitada por 9500 yungaínos. Se muestra que los peligros que origina el nevado Huascarán todavía se perciben. De otro lado, la percepción de riesgo de la ciudad de Yungay, debido a su ubicación, está disminuyendo dramáticamente en su población.

  8. STUDIES AND RESEARCH ON DESIGN OF EFFICIENCY TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESSES BY ESTIMATING THE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina-Elena BUȘARU

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to identify sources of risk, the project manager will have to define the type of project which is the subject analysis which can offer options and especially sources of analysis of the specific risk factors. A For the projects, for the industrial objectives, technical/technological systems, analysis of identify the sources of risk, assessment and monitoring in order to reduce and/or neutralize risks, will be taken in regard for the following: risk factors within technical/technological systems, external risk factors and/or the conjuctural nature, risk factors associated to human errors, organizational chart of minimal content of risk analysis to the stages of design, execution, assembly and operation of technical/technological systems.

  9. Development of Bayesian Network Models for Risk-Based Ship Design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dimitris Konovessis; Wenkui Cai; Dracos Vassalos

    2013-01-01

    In the past fifteen years,the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry.The risk-based ship design (RBD) methodology,advocating systematic integration of risk assessment within the conventional design process has started to takeoff.Despite this wide recognition and increasing popularity,important factors that could potentially undermine the quality of the results come from both quantitative and qualitative aspects during the risk assessment process.This paper details a promising solution by developing a formalized methodology for risk assessment through effective storing and processing of historical data combined with data generated through first-principle approaches.This method should help to generate appropriate risk models in the selected platform (Bayesian networks) which can be employed for decision making at design stage.

  10. Design of Solar Optical Fiber Lighting System for Enhanced Lighting in Highway Tunnel Threshold Zone: A Case Study of Huashuyan Tunnel in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochun Qin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the principle, structural composition, materials, and characteristics of solar optical fiber lighting system were discussed. The different luminance requirements of different zones of highway tunnel were identified on the basis of the analysis of tunnel lighting considering drivers’ visually self-accommodating physiological function for luminance change. Taken Huashuyan Tunnel of G109 Highway located in Hohhot of Inner Mongolia in China as the case study, the system design of solar optical fiber lighting for enhanced lighting in threshold zone of highway tunnel was made. It was indicated through calculation that the design length of solar optical fiber enhanced lighting was related to the design speed, longitudinal slope, and overhead clearance of the tunnel, and the design luminance of solar optical fiber enhanced lighting was related to the luminance outside the tunnel, the design speed, and the design traffic flow of the tunnel. Luminance analysis of the solar optical fiber lighting system of Huashuyan Tunnel was made based on the on-site experiment. Also, the 3D illuminance simulation results by DIALux software were made to indicate that the solar optical fiber lighting system in Huashuyan Tunnel still well met the enhanced lighting demand even not considering the contribution of LED lighting.

  11. Creation of synthetic homogeneous neighbourhoods using zone design algorithms to explore relationships between asthma and deprivation in Strasbourg, France

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabel, Clive E; Kihal, W.; Bard, D.

    2013-01-01

    the neighbourhood can influence individual health through individual behaviour. Relatively few studies discuss the question of the borders and definition of a neighbourhood but we know that the results from health or population datasets are very sensitive to how zones are constructed e part of the Modifiable Areal......, and compare these rates with an index of multiple deprivation (NDI) which we have constructed and reported elsewhere. Higher correlations between Asthma and NDI were found using our newly constructed synthetic zones than using the existing French census areas of similar size. The significance of our work...

  12. Atmospheric deposition of trace elements around point sources and human health risk assessment. I: Impact zones around a lead source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moseholm, L.; Larsen, Erik Huusfeldt; Andersen, B.

    1992-01-01

    The deposition of lead was monitored over 8 years in the area around a car battery factory north of Copenhagen, Denmark. The area also has heavy traffic. Deposition was measured by in-situ grown vegetables, transplant grass culture biomonitors, bulk deposition and soil samples. Three impact zones...... were identified by a multivariate statistical analysis. Within each zone, the total dietary intake of lead was estimated for adults and children as a percentage of the provisional tolerably weekly intake (PTWI), and as a result recommendation on restrictions in use of locally grown fruit and vegetables...... were given to the public. The pattern of lead deposition in the area during the period 1981-1988 was monitored and the amount of lead ingested via vegetables was toxically evaluated. Lead emission reduction measures introduced in the factory and in the traffic during the period produced significant...

  13. Reliability/Risk Methods and Design Tools for Application in Space Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, John S.; Smart, Christian

    1999-01-01

    Since 1984 NASA has funded several major programs to develop Reliability/Risk Methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. Two probabilistic software tools that show great promise for practical application are the finite element code NESSUS and the system risk analysis code QRAS. This paper examines NASA's past, present, and future directions in reliability and risk engineering applications, Both the NESSUS and QRAS software tools are detailed.

  14. DESIGNING A HYBRID INTELLIGENT MINING SYSTEM FOR CREDIT RISK EVALUATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this study,a novel hybrid intelligent mining system integrating rough sets theory and support vector machines is developed to extract efficiently association rules from original information table for credit risk evaluation and analysis.In the proposed hybrid intelligent system,support vector machines are used as a tool to extract typical features and filter its noise,which are different from the previous studies where rough sets were only used as a preprocessor for support vector machines.Such an approach could reduce the information table and generate the final knowledge from the reduced information table by rough sets.Therefore,the proposed hybrid intelligent system overcomes the diffi-culty of extracting rules from a trained support vector machine classifier and possesses the robustness which is lacking for rough-set-based approaches.In addition,the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid intelligent system is illustrated with two real-world credit datasets.

  15. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  16. Data analysis for preliminary conceptual model design, Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS), McClellan AFB. 1997 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zawislanski, P.T.; Oldenburg, C.M.

    1998-01-05

    Vadose zone investigations are being performed at site S-7 in IC 34, at McClellan AFB. At this location, a Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) is being used to collect subsurface data including hydraulic potential, soil gas pressure, moisture content, water chemistry, gas chemistry, and temperature. Although each individual data set is useful in improving the characterization of this contaminated site, the overall purpose of data collection is to provide input for the conceptual and numerical modeling of VOC transport in the vadose zone and the exchange of contaminants between the vadose zone and groundwater. In this report the authors submit a summary and preliminary analysis of the data collected through the end of 1997 and present it in the context of input for the impending modeling. This report merges findings from both the first and second half of 1997 and is presented as an annual report in lieu of two semi-annual reports, due to the fact that insufficient data had been collected up to mid June to allow a meaningful analysis.

  17. Climatic risk zoning for corn and palisade grass (Brachiaria brizantha cv: Marandu cultivated in integrated crop-livestock systems in São Paulo state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Menezes Santos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic risk zoning allows the identification of areas of low risk of reduced crop productivity due to climatic events. In Brazil, losses to agriculture due to climate are mainly caused by drought. The objective of this research was to determine areas of low climatic risk for corn and palisade grass cultivated in integrated crop-livestock systems in Sao Paulo state. Corn varieties characterized by a 120-day growing cycle and soil with three different water holding capacities (sandy, medium and clayey soils were considered. A daily water balance model was used to simulate planting dates between September and December. The water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI was calculated for critical phenological phases of both cultures (germination, emergence and tillering of palisade grass and flowering and grain filling of corn. The WRSI values, calculated for a minimum frequency of 80%, were located spatially using the SPRING v. 5.1 geographic information system and the most favorable periods for sowing in different areas were determined. The results showed that there are areas of low climatic risk for cultivation of corn and palisade grass in integrated crop-livestock production systems in Sao Paulo state. Although climatic risk in these areas also depends on soil type, the most favorable period for planting is between October and November.

  18. 自贸区供应链风险管理研究%A Study of Supply Chain Risks in Free Trade Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵静

    2015-01-01

    Analyzing the risks of supply chain risks in free trade zone on the aspect of marketing,cooperation, technique, inform-ation finance and institution. Presenting the concept of risk revenue redundancy based on supply chain theory and redundancy in organization theory. Modeling the risk revenue redundancy of information sharing and information decentralization based on the three-stage supply chain model. The result shows the risk revenue redundancy is better under information sharing so that it can improve the risk prevention ability for supply chain management in free trade zone. At last , specific measures of risk management is proposed based on information sharing: to establish a sophisticated supply chain risk information system and a coordinating mechanism. Meanwhile , a procurement synergy platform based on supplier management should be established to optimize the supply chain structure.%文章从供应链管理的角度对自贸区的风险进行了研究,分析了自贸区供应链管理在市场、合作、技术、信息、金融财务和制度等方面可能存在的风险。结合供应链管理和组织理论中的冗余概念,提出了供应链风险收益冗余的概念,并在三级供应链模型的基础上,分别对信息完全共享和信息分散决策下的供应链风险收益冗余进行了建模分析,结论显示在信息完全共享的条件下,供应链的整体风险收益冗余大于信息分散决策条件下的风险收益冗余,表明信息共享能充分提高供应链的风险防范能力。最后提出了基于信息共享的自贸区供应链运营风险管理具体措施:建立完善的供应链风险信息共享系统和信息协调机构,构建一个基于供应商管理的协同采购平台来优化供应链结构。

  19. Risk Minimization and Optimal Derivative Design in a Principal Agent Game

    CERN Document Server

    Horst, U

    2007-01-01

    We consider the problem of Adverse Selection and optimal derivative design within a Principal-Agent framework. The principal's income is exposed to non-hedgeable risk factors arising, for instance, from weather or climate phenomena. She evaluates her risk using a coherent and law invariant risk measure and tries minimize her exposure by selling derivative securities on her income to individual agents. The agents have mean-variance preferences with heterogeneous risk aversion coefficients. An agent's degree of risk aversion is private information and hidden to the principal who only knows the overall distribution. We show that the principal's risk minimization problem has a solution and illustrate the effects of risk transfer on her income by means of two specific examples. Our model extends earlier work of Barrieu and El Karoui (2005) and Carlier, Ekeland and Touzi (2007).

  20. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  1. A rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment: considering multiple flood sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, X.; Tatano, H.

    2015-08-01

    Information about the spatial distribution of flood risk is important for integrated urban flood risk management. Focusing on urban areas, spatial flood risk assessment must reflect all risk information derived from multiple flood sources: rivers, drainage, coastal flooding etc. that may affect the area. However, conventional flood risk assessment deals with each flood source independently, which leads to an underestimation of flood risk in the floodplain. Even in floodplains that have no risk from coastal flooding, flooding from river channels and inundation caused by insufficient drainage capacity should be considered simultaneously. For integrated flood risk management, it is necessary to establish a methodology to estimate flood risk distribution across a floodplain. In this paper, a rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment, which considers the joint effects of multiple flood sources, is proposed. The concept of critical rainfall duration determined by the concentration time of flooding is introduced to connect response characteristics of different flood sources with rainfall. A copula method is then adopted to capture the correlation of rainfall amount with different critical rainfall durations. Rainfall events are designed taking advantage of the copula structure of correlation and marginal distribution of rainfall amounts within different critical rainfall durations. A case study in the Otsu River Basin, Osaka prefecture, Japan was conducted to demonstrate this methodology.

  2. A rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment: considering multiple flood sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Jiang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Information about the spatial distribution of flood risk is important for integrated urban flood risk management. Focusing on urban areas, spatial flood risk assessment must reflect all risk information derived from multiple flood sources: rivers, drainage, coastal flooding etc. that may affect the area. However, conventional flood risk assessment deals with each flood source independently, which leads to an underestimation of flood risk in the floodplain. Even in floodplains that have no risk from coastal flooding, flooding from river channels and inundation caused by insufficient drainage capacity should be considered simultaneously. For integrated flood risk management, it is necessary to establish a methodology to estimate flood risk distribution across a floodplain. In this paper, a rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment, which considers the joint effects of multiple flood sources, is proposed. The concept of critical rainfall duration determined by the concentration time of flooding is introduced to connect response characteristics of different flood sources with rainfall. A copula method is then adopted to capture the correlation of rainfall amount with different critical rainfall durations. Rainfall events are designed taking advantage of the copula structure of correlation and marginal distribution of rainfall amounts within different critical rainfall durations. A case study in the Otsu River Basin, Osaka prefecture, Japan was conducted to demonstrate this methodology.

  3. Steps Toward Technology Design to Beat Health Inequality - Participatory Design Walks in a Neighbourhood with High Health Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertelsen, Pernille; Kanstrup, Anne Marie; Madsen, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    This paper explores participatory design walks (PD walks) as a first step toward a participatory design of health information technology (HIT) aimed at tackling health inequality in a neighbourhood identified as a high-risk health area. Existing research shows that traditional methods for health promotion, such as campaigns and teaching, have little to no effect in high-risk health areas. Rather, initiatives must be locally anchored - integrated into the local culture, and based on social relationships and group activities. This paper explains how we conducted PD walks with residents and community workers in the neighbourhood and how this participatory approach supported a first step toward HIT design that tackles health inequality. This is important, as people in neighbourhoods with high health risks are not the target audience for the health technology innovation currently taking place despite the fact that this group suffers the most from health inequality and weigh most on the public healthcare services and costs. The study identifies social and cultural aspects that influence everyday health management and presents how a citizen-driven approach like PD walks, can contribute valuable insights for design of HIT. The paper provides concrete methodological recommendations on how to conduct PD walks that are valuable to HIT designers and developers who aim to do PD with neighbourhoods.

  4. Psychosocial Risks Generated By Assets Specific Design Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remus, Furtună; Angela, Domnariu; Petru, Lazăr

    2015-07-01

    The human activity concerning an occupation is resultant from the interaction between the psycho-biological, socio-cultural and organizational-occupational factors. Tehnological development, automation and computerization that are to be found in all the branches of activity, the level of speed in which things develop, as well as reaching their complexity, require less and less physical aptitudes and more cognitive qualifications. The person included in the work process is bound in most of the cases to come in line with the organizational-occupational situations that are specific to the demands of the job. The role of the programmer is essencial in the process of execution of ordered softwares, thus the truly brilliant ideas can only come from well-rested minds, concentrated on their tasks. The actual requirements of the jobs, besides the high number of benefits and opportunities, also create a series of psycho-social risks, which can increase the level of stress during work activity, especially for those who work under pressure.

  5. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, es-pecially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems...... in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is ‘on the table’, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose...... was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant....

  6. Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

  7. Incorporating Risk Assessment and Inherently Safer Design Practices into Chemical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seay, Jeffrey R.; Eden, Mario R.

    2008-01-01

    This paper introduces, via case study example, the benefit of including risk assessment methodology and inherently safer design practices into the curriculum for chemical engineering students. This work illustrates how these tools can be applied during the earliest stages of conceptual process design. The impacts of decisions made during…

  8. Incorporating Risk Assessment and Inherently Safer Design Practices into Chemical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seay, Jeffrey R.; Eden, Mario R.

    2008-01-01

    This paper introduces, via case study example, the benefit of including risk assessment methodology and inherently safer design practices into the curriculum for chemical engineering students. This work illustrates how these tools can be applied during the earliest stages of conceptual process design. The impacts of decisions made during…

  9. Effect of fuel zoning and fuel nozzle design on pollution emissions at ground idle conditions for a double-annular ram-induction combustor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, T. R.

    1973-01-01

    An exhaust emission survey was conducted on a double-annular ram induction combustor at simulated ground idle conditions. The combustor was designed for a large augmented turbofan engine capable of sustained flight speeds up to Mach 3.0. The emission levels of total hydrocarbon (THC), carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and nitric oxide were measured. The effects of fuel zoning, fuel nozzle design, and operating conditions (inlet temperature and reference Mach number) on the level of these emissions were determined. At an overall combustor fuel/air ratio of 0.007, fuel zoning reduced THC emissions by a factor of 5 to 1. The reduction in THC emissions is attributed to the increase in local fuel/air ratio provided by the fuel zoning. An alternative method of increasing fuel/air ratio would be to operate with larger-than-normal compressor overboard bleed; however, analysis on this method indicated an increase in idle fuel consumption of 20 percent. The use of air-atomizing nozzles reduced the THC emissions by 2 to 1.

  10. Shanghai's Development Zones

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    @@ Since the early 1980s,development zones began appearing in China.Their Success largely stems from the preferential policies they offer and the safe investment environment they work hard to create.As zones have personalities themselves,it is essential to look beyond the pamphlets and published information and get down to the nittygritty.Shanghai has more State designated Economic and Technology Development Zones than any other city in China.In the following article,we have chosen development zones located around Shanghai and conducted a comparison.

  11. Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Raghunandan, Meera; Champion, C.; Haukaas, Terje

    2015-01-01

    ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

  12. Incorporating risk measures in closed-loop supply chain network design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimani, H.; Seyyed-Esfahani, M.; Govindan, Kannan

    2014-01-01

    functions and decision-making procedures are undertaken based on the expected values and risk adversity criteria. Finally, performances of the developed mean-risk models are evaluated in various aspects. Results reveal that the inefficiencies of risk-neutral approaches can be overcome. In addition, in terms......This paper considers a location-allocation problem in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with two extensions: first, demand and prices of new and return products are regarded as non-deterministic parameters and second, the objective function is developed from expected profit to three types of mean......-risk ones. Indeed, design and planning an integrated CLSC in real-world volatile markets is an important and necessary issue. Further, risk-neutral approaches, which are considered expected values, are not efficient for such uncertain conditions. Hence, this paper, copes with the design and planning problem...

  13. Designing new institutions for implementing integrated disaster risk management: key elements and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalakrishnan, Chennat; Okada, Norio

    2007-12-01

    The goal of integrated disaster risk management is to promote an overall improvement in the quality of safety and security in a region, city or community at disaster risk. This paper presents the case for a thorough overhaul of the institutional component of integrated disaster risk management. A review of disaster management institutions in the United States indicates significant weaknesses in their ability to contribute effectively to the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Our analysis and findings identify eight key elements for the design of dynamic new disaster management institutions. Six specific approaches are suggested for incorporating the identified key elements in building new institutions that would have significant potential for enhancing the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk management. We have developed a possible blueprint for effective design and construction of efficient, sustainable and functional disaster management institutions.

  14. Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

    2013-04-01

    In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks

  15. Co-evolutions of planning and design: Risks and benefits of design perspectives in planning systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assche, van K.A.M.; Beunen, R.; Duineveld, M.; Jong, de H.C.

    2013-01-01

    We develop an evolutionary perspective on spatial planning to investigate the potential contributions of design approaches to the coordination of spatial organization. After a rearticulation of the concepts of planning and design in this perspective, we distinguish six essential features of the

  16. Uncertainty evaluation of design rainfall for urban flood risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontanazza, C M; Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

    2011-01-01

    A reliable and long dataset describing urban flood locations, volumes and depths would be an ideal prerequisite for assessing flood frequency distributions. However, data are often piecemeal and long-term hydraulic modelling is often adopted to estimate floods from historical rainfall series. Long-term modelling approaches are time- and resource-consuming, and synthetically designed rainfalls are often used to estimate flood frequencies. The present paper aims to assess the uncertainty of such an approach and for suggesting improvements in the definition of synthetic rainfall data for flooding frequency analysis. According to this aim, a multivariate statistical analysis based on a copula method was applied to rainfall features (total depth, duration and maximum intensity) to generate synthetic rainfalls that are more consistent with historical events. The procedure was applied to a real case study, and the results were compared with those obtained by simulating other typical synthetic rainfall events linked to intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. The copula-based multi-variate analysis is more robust and adapts well to experimental flood locations even if it is more complex and time-consuming. This study demonstrates that statistical correlations amongst rainfall frequency, duration, volume and peak intensity can partially explain the weak reliability of flood-frequency analyses based on synthetic rainfall events.

  17. Designing reliable supply chain network with disruption risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Bozorgi Amiri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although supply chains disruptions rarely occur, their negative effects are prolonged and severe. In this paper, we propose a reliable capacitated supply chain network design (RSCND model by considering random disruptions in both distribution centers and suppliers. The proposed model determines the optimal location of distribution centers (DC with the highest reliability, the best plan to assign customers to opened DCs and assigns opened DCs to suitable suppliers with lowest transportation cost. In this study, random disruption occurs at the location, capacity of the distribution centers (DCs and suppliers. It is assumed that a disrupted DC and a disrupted supplier may lose a portion of their capacities, and the rest of the disrupted DC's demand can be supplied by other DCs. In addition, we consider shortage in DCs, which can occur in either normal or disruption conditions and DCs, can support each other in such circumstances. Unlike other studies in the extent of literature, we use new approach to model the reliability of DCs; we consider a range of reliability instead of using binary variables. In order to solve the proposed model for real-world instances, a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II is applied. Preliminary results of testing the proposed model of this paper on several problems with different sizes provide seem to be promising.

  18. 黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害风险区划%Frost Hazard Risk Zoning of Rice in Heilongjiang Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于宏敏; 姚俊英; 朱红蕊

    2011-01-01

    According to theory of crop growing stages,the rice first frost hazard risk,disaster environmental sensitivity,vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies were analyzed,the framework for disaster risk assessment was built as well as index system,method,mode and risk zoning map based on the daily minimum temperature data,frost historical disaster data,socio-economic data,GIS data and information on crop growth period of 77 meteorological stations nationwide in the period of 1961 to 2009.The result showed that south Daxinganling,Heihe,Songnen Plain and the western of Sanjiang Plain for the highest danger zone,north Daxinganling,Mudanjiang and the eastern of Sanjiang plain were the low risk zone.%根据黑龙江省水稻的生长发育期,以全省77个台站1961~2009年的逐日最低气温资料、霜冻历史灾情数据、社会经济资料、地理信息数据及作物生育期资料为基础,综合运用GIS空间分析和灾害风险评估数学方法,对水稻初霜冻致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性等多因子综合分析,构建水稻初霜冻灾害风险评价的框架、指标体系、方法与模型,绘制相应的风险区划图。结果表明:大兴安岭南部、黑河大部分地区、松嫩平原大部和三江平原西部个别地区为次高和高风险区,大兴安岭北部地区、牡丹江大部分地区、三江平原东部地区为次低和低风险区。

  19. Comparison of the Atkins, Ornish, Weight Watchers, and Zone diets for weight loss and heart disease risk reduction: a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dansinger, Michael L; Gleason, Joi Augustin; Griffith, John L; Selker, Harry P; Schaefer, Ernst J

    2005-01-05

    The scarcity of data addressing the health effects of popular diets is an important public health concern, especially since patients and physicians are interested in using popular diets as individualized eating strategies for disease prevention. To assess adherence rates and the effectiveness of 4 popular diets (Atkins, Zone, Weight Watchers, and Ornish) for weight loss and cardiac risk factor reduction. A single-center randomized trial at an academic medical center in Boston, Mass, of overweight or obese (body mass index: mean, 35; range, 27-42) adults aged 22 to 72 years with known hypertension, dyslipidemia, or fasting hyperglycemia. Participants were enrolled starting July 18, 2000, and randomized to 4 popular diet groups until January 24, 2002. A total of 160 participants were randomly assigned to either Atkins (carbohydrate restriction, n=40), Zone (macronutrient balance, n=40), Weight Watchers (calorie restriction, n=40), or Ornish (fat restriction, n=40) diet groups. After 2 months of maximum effort, participants selected their own levels of dietary adherence. One-year changes in baseline weight and cardiac risk factors, and self-selected dietary adherence rates per self-report. Assuming no change from baseline for participants who discontinued the study, mean (SD) weight loss at 1 year was 2.1 (4.8) kg for Atkins (21 [53%] of 40 participants completed, P = .009), 3.2 (6.0) kg for Zone (26 [65%] of 40 completed, P = .002), 3.0 (4.9) kg for Weight Watchers (26 [65%] of 40 completed, P diet significantly reduced the low-density lipoprotein/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio by approximately 10% (all Pdiet type (r = 0.07; P = .40). For each diet, decreasing levels of total/HDL cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and insulin were significantly associated with weight loss (mean r = 0.36, 0.37, and 0.39, respectively) with no significant difference between diets (P = .48, P = .57, P = .31, respectively). Each popular diet modestly reduced body weight

  20. Design and evaluation of an oxidant-fuel-ratio-zoned rocket injector for high performance and ablative engine compatibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J. M.; Pavli, A. J.; Shinn, A. M., Jr.

    1972-01-01

    A method for temperature control of the combustion gases in the peripheral zone of a rocket combustor which would reduce ablative throat erosion, prevent melting of zirconia throat inserts, and maintain high combustion performance is discussed. Included are techniques for analyzing and predicting zoned injector performance, as well as the philosophy and method for accomplishing an optimum compromise between high performance and reduced effective gas temperature. The experimental work was done with a 1000-lbf rocket engine which used as propellants N2O4 and a blend of 50-percent N2H4 and 50-percent UDMH at 100-psia chamber pressure and an overall O/F of 2.0. The method selected to provide temperature control was to use 30 percent of the propellant to form a peripheral zone of combustion gases at an O/F of 1.31 and 2700 K. The remaining 70 percent of the propellant in the core was at an O/F of 2.45 to keep the overall O/F at 2.0.

  1. Reevaluation of the effectiveness of environmental designs to reduce robbery risk in Florida convenience stores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amandus, H E; Hunter, R D; James, E; Hendricks, S

    1995-06-01

    Prevention of intentional injuries to convenience store workers has focused on prevention of robbery. Data from a cross-sectional study of the effectiveness of environmental designs to deter robbery in Florida convenience stores were reanalyzed in order to determine the effect of confounding from local crime risk factors and other environmental designs on robbery rate. Results of this reanalysis were applied to a review of the literature. Of 14 store design factors and 5 local crime risk factors considered, concealed access/escape routes, cash register located at the back or the side of the store, high county crime rate, and high county population size were significantly associated with increased robbery rate. Poor cash handling policy was significantly related to a decreased robbery rate. Results also indicated that local crime factors and some environmental designs confound the relationship between other environmental designs and robbery rate. Conclusions from this reanalysis indicated that studies of the effectiveness of environmental designs to deter robbery must adjust for confounding. Although environmental design tends to be an effective robbery deterrent strategy, results from studies have been inconsistent as to the effectiveness of specific design factors. This inconsistency is partially explained by lack of adjustment for confounding from local crime risk factors and multiple environmental design factors. Areas for further research are discussed.

  2. Risk Zoning of Flood and Waterlog in Heilongjiang Province%黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张洪玲; 宋丽华; 刘赫男; 徐永清

    2012-01-01

    Based on daily precipitation date, socio - economic data, GIS data and historical disaster data, the authors analyzed the fatalness of disaster - inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster - forming environments and vulnerability of disaster - bearing bodies by using GIS method. Then the model of risking valuation was built with the method of weighted synthesis evaluation and natural breakpoint classification method of GIS. Risk zoning charts of flood and waterlog in Heilongjiang province was painted and was divided into five hierarchies: high, less high, medium, less low and low. The results showed that risk of flood and waterlog presented high in the east and west areas but low in the north and south. Most area of Songnen plain, north and south of Sanjiang plain and the central of Hegang belonged to high risking zone, especially north - west of Haerbin, south - east of Daqing, north and west of Suihua, the central of Hegang. Daxinganling area and southeast semi mountainous belonged to low - less low risking zone and where the probability of occurrence also low. Actual disaster results were matched with risking zone, especially the distribution of high low high areas.%以黑龙江省81个气象台站1961-2008年的逐日降水数据、社会经济资料、地理信息数据以及灾情数据为基础,运用GIS技术,对黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性等评价因子进行综合分析,采用加权综合分析法以及GIS中自然断点分级法,构建了暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型,将黑龙江省划分为高、次高、中等、次低和低5个等级风险区.结果表明,黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害风险呈“东西高-南北低”的分布,松嫩平原大部、三江平原北部和南部地区处于高-次高风险区,哈尔滨西北部、大庆东南部、绥化北部和西部以及鹤岗中部地区,属于高风险区;而大兴安岭地区和东南半山区处于低-次低风险区

  3. Cloud attenuation studies of the six major climatic zones of Africa for Ka and V satellite system design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temidayo Victor Omotosho

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-GB X-NONE X-NONE Cloud cover statistics, cloud base and top height, cloud temperature, frequency of precipitation, freezing height, total cloud liquid water content (TCLWC and cloud attenuation data have been obtained for the six major climatic zones of Africa. The present results reveal a strong positive correlation between the monthly distribution of low cloud cover, cloud top height, cloud temperature, and frequency of precipitation in the six zones. The cumulative distribution of the TCLWC derived from radiosonde measurement in each climatic zone shows a departure from the TCLWC recommended by the ITU Study Group 3 data, with an exceedance percentage difference of 32% to 90% occurring 0.01% to 10% of the time. The underestimation of the TCLWC is greatest in the tropical rain forest. A comparison of the cloud attenuation cumulative distribution in the Ka and V bands reveals that the International Telecommunication Union – Region (ITU-R is an intergovernmental organization that develops rain model based on collected data around the world. This model underestimates the cloud attenuation in all of the six climatic zones by 2.0 dB and 4.7 dB for the arid Sahara desert, 1.3 dB and 3.0 dB in semi-arid North Africa, 1.3 dB and 1.5 dB in savannah North Africa, 2.0 dB and 3.6 dB in the tropical rain forest, 1.3 dB and 2.9 dB in savannah South Africa and 0.9 dB and 2.6 dB in semi-arid South Africa, respectively, at 30 and 50 GHz. Overall, the cloud attenuation in the tropical rain-forest zone is very high because of the high annual total cloud cover (98%, high annual frequency of precipitation (4.5, low annual clear sky amount (8%, high cloud depth (10,937 m, high 0°C isotherm height (4.7 km, high TCLWC (4.0 kg/m2 at 0.01% and low seasonal cloud base height (356 m.

  4. Zoning of Flood Disaster Risk in Weichang County Based on GIS%基于GIS的围场县洪水灾害风险区划分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈湛峰; 王卫平

    2013-01-01

    Zoning of flood disaster risk is the primary tool for study of flood disasters and it is important content for assessment and management of flood disasters. Through analysis of history flood data and the field survey data of Weichang County, the index model was established and the flood disaster assessment index system was determined. The spatial distribution maps of each factor in the study area were acquired through the analysis, statistic, interpolation and reclassification of factors using GIS technology. The basic units of flood disaster were also obtained through the GIS overlay analysis from grid data. Then the weight of each factor is determined with AHP. Finally, the flood disaster risk zoning map was obtained. The result shows that the flood disaster risk of Weichang County is gradually increased from northwest to southeast, and the risk reaches the highest in Weichang Town; the risk of Bashang area is lower, and high risk areas concentrated in the Yixun river basin.%鉴于洪水灾害风险区划是研究洪水灾害的主要手段,也是评估和管理洪灾的重要内容.以围场县为例,根据其历史洪水资料和实地考察资料建立指标模型,确定了洪水灾害评估指标体系,利用GIS技术对体系中各因子进行分析、统计、聚类、插值和重分类得到各因子的空间分布图,并通过GIS的栅格数据叠加分析得到洪水灾害基本单元,进而采用层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,由此得到了围场县洪水灾害风险区划图.结果表明,围场县洪水灾害风险从西北到东南逐渐增大,围场镇附近风险最高;坝上地区洪水灾害风险较低,高洪水灾害风险区集中在伊逊河流域.

  5. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  6. Optimal Design and Operation of A Syngas-fuelled SOFC Micro-CHP System for Residential Applications in Different Climate Zones in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Wenyuan; Liso, Vincenzo; Zhao, Yingru

    2013-01-01

    demand. Numerical simulations are conducted in Matlab environment. System design trade-offs are discussed to determine the optimal match between the energy demand of the household for different climates across China and the energy supply of the micro-CHP during the whole year. Moreover, criteria......Energy consumption in residential sector can be considerably reduced by enhancing the efficiency of energy supply. Fuel cell-based residential micro-CHP systems are expected to be one of the most promising technologies because of their high efficiency and low environmental impact. Since the design...... heat-to-power load ratio. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the optimal design and operation of a syngas-fuelled SOFC micro-CHP system for small households located in five different climate zones in China. The ability of the micro-CHP to cover the heat and electricity demand of a 70m2...

  7. Low back injury risks during construction with prefabricated (panelised) walls: effects of task and design factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunwook; Nussbaum, Maury A; Jia, Bochen

    2011-01-01

    New technology designed to increase productivity in residential construction may exacerbate the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) among residential construction workers. Of interest here are panelised (prefabricated) wall systems (or panels) and facilitating an ongoing effort to provide proactive control of ergonomic exposures and risks among workers using panels. This study, which included 24 participants, estimated WMSD risks using five methods during common panel erection tasks and the influences of panel mass (sheathed vs. unsheathed) and size (wall length). WMSD risks were fairly high overall; e.g. 34% and 77% of trials exceeded the 'action limits' for spinal compressive and shear forces, respectively. Heavier (sheathed) panels significantly increased risks, although the magnitude of this effect differed with panel size and between tasks. Higher levels of risk were found in tasks originating from ground vs. knuckle height. Several practical recommendations based on the results are discussed. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Panelised wall systems have the potential to increase productivity in residential construction, but may result in increased worker injury risks. Results from this study can be used to generate future panel design and construction processes that can proactively address WMSD risks.

  8. Agriculture drought risk assessment of the irrigated agriculture zone in North Henan Plain using HJ-1 and MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Haixia; Huang, He; Wang, Ping; Sun, Yinxiang

    2011-12-01

    This paper analyzed the evolution of drought and the spectral response of the crop at different growing seasons focuses on the irrigated agricultural areas of northen Henan using the HJ-1 data and MODIS data,associated with relevant meteologic data, regional geographical data and the social economic data.The Spatial and temporal distribution of the risk of disaster-causing factors and the fragility of the disaster-affected body was conducted and the comprehensive index of agricultral drought risk was built up.Then, trend of the agricultural drought was analyzed and the irrigated agricultural drought risk class was performed and the possible hazard and influence of agricultural drought and the performance of appropriate strategy to reduce agricultral drought have been estimated.At last,verification of the results and improvement of the model have been carried out supported by the historic cases, expert system and the on-site investigation data.

  9. Design for risk control: the role of usability engineering in the management of use-related risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Peijl, Jorien; Klein, Jan; Grass, Christian; Freudenthal, Adinda

    2012-08-01

    The majority of medical device incident reports can primarily be attributed to use error. Greater attention to human factors and usability during development of a medical device could improve this situation. However, recent studies have shown that companies do not find the application of a sound usability engineering process according to international standards a simple task. The purpose of this collaborative research project between a medical device company, two universities and a university hospital was to study the practical application of the International Standard for Application of Usability Engineering to Medical Devices, IEC 62366, by means of a case study in industrial practice. This paper describes the user studies in the case and reveals the factors important to success. Also, the paper demonstrates how to apply an iterative usability engineering process within a linear product development process in industry. Management support and careful planning of resources and activities proved essential. To control use-related risks, the usability engineer should 'design for risk control' in a structured manner, while the risk manager should remain responsible for acceptable levels of residual risk. The paper concludes with recommendations for the improvement of IEC 62366 and ISO 14971, the standard for the risk management of medical devices. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The role of risk management in the design of diagnostics for fusion reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ingesson, L. C. [Fusion for Energy, Josep Pla 2, Torres Diagonal Litoral B3, 08019 Barcelona (Spain); Collaboration: F4E Diagnostic Project Team

    2014-08-21

    A project-oriented approach is beneficial for the selection and design of viable diagnostics for fusion reactors because of the associated complex physical and organizational environment. The project-oriented approach includes rigorous risk management. The nature and impact of risks related to technical, organizational and commercial aspects in relation to the development of ITER diagnostics under EU responsibility are analyzed. The majority of risks are related to organizational aspects and technical feasibility issues. The experience with ITER is extrapolated to DEMO and beyond. It should not be taken for granted that technical solutions will be found, while a risk analysis of various diagnostic techniques with quantitative assessments undertaken early in the design of DEMO would be beneficial.

  11. Application of GIS technology to risk zoning of landslide in Chongqing%GIS技术在重庆市滑坡风险区划中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张东明; 李剑; 田贵维; 刘光鹏

    2011-01-01

    By synthesis of landslide interpretation, landslide spatial database and management of geographic information system(GIS) outcomes, landslide risk and vulnerability assessment factors were scientifically selected. The author completed risk assessment and vulnerability assessment by analytic hierarchy process of statistical analysis algorithms, GIS buffer analysis, superposition analysis, statistical analysis and three-dimensional analysis to quantify the landslide factors. Based on vulnerability rank and risk classification, Kriging interpolation, re-classification, digital conversion and expert interference correction, the zoning of risk and vulnerability was implemented. Defining 0. 5 as attribute data of the landslide risk and vulnerability and by linear superposition, landslide area assessed can be divided into three landslide risk areas; high risk area, medium risk area and low risk area.%综合滑坡解译、滑坡空间数据库和管理地理信息系统成果,科学选取滑坡危险性和易损性评价因子,运用统计学的层次分析算法、GIS缓冲区分析、叠加分析、统计分析、三维分析等对滑坡体因子量化,进行了滑坡的风险评价和易损性评价.依据风险分级和易损性分级标准,通过克里金插值、重分类、数字转换、专家干预修正等实现风险性分区和易损性分区.以0.5作为滑坡风险评价中风险性和易损性属性数据,通过线性叠加最终实现了滑坡风险评价并划分出高、中、低3级滑坡风险区.

  12. The control, at the design stage, of risks related to buildings management over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Martani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper an apparatus of tools and methods is presented to evaluate, at the design stage, the risks over a set of objectives through buildings lifetime. To this purpose a tool is first presented to relate technological requirements of each technical elements to the pertinent maintenance interventions. Then a process is also proposed to estimate the risks on user requirements runningMonte Carlo simulations. The risk management process proposed in the present work aims to support designers and promoters in making predictions on the outcomes of long, not standardized, multivariable dependent processes – as the building process is – in order to indicate the attitude of a designed building to meet a framework of important objectives through its lifetime.

  13. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  14. Schistosoma mansoni infection prevalence and associated risk factors among schoolchildren in Demba Girara, Damot Woide District of Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bereket Alemayehu; Zewdneh Tomass

    2015-01-01

    Objective:To establish the prevalence and associated risk factors of Schistosoma mansoni (S. mansoni) infection among schoolchildren at a village in Wolaita Zone, Sothern Ethiopia. Methods:A cross-sectional study was carried out among primary schoolchildren. A total of 384 randomly selected study subjects provided stool samples for parasitological examination by Kato-Katz and Formalin-Ether concentration techniques. Secondary parasitological data were obtained from Health Center Laboratory to see the previous history of S. mansoni infection in the area. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 16. Results:From the total children examined, 85.4%were found positive for at least one helminth infection. S. mansoni infection (81.3%) was the most prevalent and the prevalence of STH was 32%. Moderate and heavy infection intensities were only observed in S. mansoni infections. The overall heavy intensity of infection was 56.4%. Contact to Bisare stream was the most important factor for S. mansoni infection (OR 3.9) followed by herding cattle near the stream (OR 2.527). Males were twice more likely to get the infection than females (OR 1.923). Analysis of secondary parasitological data showed that S. mansoni infection was a leading helminthic infection over the past years. Conclusions:The present study found a higher intensity and prevalence of S. mansoni infection in a rural village of Wolaita Zone. Therefore, appropriate integrated control and prevention measures need to be implemented in the study area.

  15. Hazards Faced by Young Designated Drivers: In-Car Risks of Driving Drunken Passengers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. Carroll

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This qualitative study explored the risk in the practice of young designated drivers transporting drunken peers. Young drivers 18-29 years old in Alberta, Canada participated in 12 focus groups (N = 146. Interviews were semi-structured. A key finding is that when highly intoxicated youth are driven by a designated driver who is a peer, they are likely to behave in ways that are unsafe. Unsafe actions of drunken passengers in the vehicle include physical “rough-housing” with the driver, creating stress for the driver that leads to high risk driving situations and disrupting safe driving through nausea and in-car vomiting.

  16. Work Zone Data Collection Trailer

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Work Zone Data Collection Trailer was designed and constructed to enhance data collection and analysis capabilities for the "Evaluating Roadway Construction Work...

  17. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Design and validation of a questionnaire for measuring perceived risk of skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Sánchez, M A; Peralta-Pedrero, M L; Domínguez-Gómez, M A

    2014-04-01

    A perceived risk of cancer encourages preventive behavior while the lack of such a perception is a barrier to risk reduction. There are no instruments in Spanish to measure this perceived risk and thus quantify response to interventions for preventing this disease at a population level. The aim of this study was to design and validate a self-administered questionnaire for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer. A self-administered questionnaire with a visual Likert-type scale was designed based on the results of the analysis of the content of a survey performed in 100 patients in the Dr. Ladislao de la Pascua Skin Clinic, Distrito Federal México, Mexico. Subsequently, the questionnaire was administered to a sample of 359 adult patients who attended the clinic for the first time. As no gold standard exists for measuring the perceived risk of skin cancer, the construct was validated through factor analysis. The final questionnaire had 18 items. The internal consistency measured with Cronbach α was 0.824 overall. In the factor analysis, 4 factors (denoted as affective, behavioral, severity, and susceptibility) and an indicator of risk accounted for 65.133% of the variance. The psychometric properties of the scale were appropriate for measuring the perception of risk in adult patients (aged 18 years or more) who attended the dermatology clinic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  19. Design of a risk matrix to assess sterile formulations at health care facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M.ª Martín de Rosales Cabrera

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To design a matrix allowing classifying sterile formulationsprepared at the hospital with different risk levels. Material and methods: i Literature search and critical appraisalof the model proposed by the European Resolution CM/ResAp(20111, ii Identification of the risk associated to the elaborationprocess by means of the AMFE methodology (ModalAnalysis of Failures and Effects, iii estimation of the severityassociated to the risks detected. After initially trying a model ofnumeric scoring, the classification matrix was changed to analphabetical classification, grading each criterion from A to D.Each preparation assessed is given a 6-letter combination withthree possible risk levels: low, intermediate, and high. Thismodel was easier for risk assignment, and more reproducible. Results: The final model designed analyzes 6 criteria: formulationprocess, administration route, the drug’s safety profile, amountprepared, distribution, and susceptibility for microbiological contamination.The risk level obtained will condition the requirementsof the formulation area, validity time, and storing conditions. Conclusions: The matrix model proposed may help health careinstitutions to better assess the risk of sterile formulations prepared,and provides information about the acceptable validitytime according to the storing conditions and the manufacturingarea. Its use will increase the safety level of this procedure aswell as help in resources planning and distribution.

  20. Risk Analysis Of Collision Between Passenger Ferry And Chemical Tanker In The Western Zone Of The Baltic Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Przywarty Marcin; Gucma Lucjan; Marcjan Krzysztof; Bąk Andrzej

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution, that consequently allowed to det...

  1. APPLICATION OF SKYLINE IN DEBRIS-FLOW RISK ZONING SYSTEM%Skyline在泥石流危险性分区系统中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘旭; 管群; 钟方平; 王君

    2012-01-01

    Skyline是当前世界上应用较为广泛的三维GIS软件之一,它能够快速地融合数据、更新数据库,展现3D地理空间影像,其功能十分强大.通过利用Skyline提供的3D控件功能,对云南蒋家沟泥石流区域进行真实建模,在模拟计算结果的基础上进行了可视化危险性分区;运用3D GIS技术处理与分析多元地理信息数据,为用户提供了良好的界面和简单实用的操作平台.初步实现3D GIS系统在泥石流危险性分区系统中的应用.%Skyline is one of the widely used three-dimensional GIS software in the world at present. It can quickly integrate data, update database and display three-dimensional geospatial image, and has very powerful function as well. In this paper we build a real modelling for debris-flow region at Jiangjiagou of Yunnan province with Skyline' s 3D COM function. Based on the simulative calculation results, the visualised risk zoning is conducted. By using 3D GIS techniques processing and analysing multiple GIS data, we provide user a good interface and simple and practical operational platform, and initiatively achieve the application of 3D GIS system in debris-flow risk zoning system.

  2. Crossing Active Faults on the Sakhalin II Onshore Pipeline Route: Pipeline Design and Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattiozzi, Pierpaolo; Strom, Alexander

    2008-07-01

    Twin oil (20 & 24 inch) and gas (20 & 48 inch) pipeline systems stretching 800 km are being constructed to connect offshore hydrocarbon deposits from the Sakhalin II concession in the North to an LNG plant and oil export terminal in the South of Sakhalin island. The onshore pipeline route follows a regional fault zone and crosses individual active faults at 19 locations. Sakhalin Energy, Design and Construction companies took significant care to ensure the integrity of the pipelines, should large seismic induced ground movements occur during the Operational life of the facilities. Complex investigations including the identification of the active faults, their precise location, their particular displacement values and assessment of the fault kinematics were carried out to provide input data for unique design solutions. Lateral and reverse offset displacements of 5.5 and 4.5 m respectively were determined as the single-event values for the design level earthquake (DLE)—the 1000-year return period event. Within the constraints of a pipeline route largely fixed, the underground pipeline fault crossing design was developed to define the optimum routing which would minimize stresses and strain using linepipe materials which had been ordered prior to the completion of detailed design, and to specify requirements for pipe trenching shape, materials, drainage system, etc. Detailed Design was performed with due regard to actual topography and to avoid the possibility of the trenches freezing in winter, the implementation of specific drainage solutions and thermal protection measures.

  3. RISK ZONING OF FLOOD DISASTER ALONG XIANGJIANG RIVER IN HUNAN PROVINCE%湘江湖南段洪水灾害综合风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    莫宏伟; 李少青; 陶建军; 刘晗; 肖志坤

    2011-01-01

    Risk zoning of flood disaster is the base of flood risk management.The advance in resolution of data can guide flood control,and flood insurance in a macroscopic view is available.Taking the catchment area along Xiangjiang River in Hunan Province as an example,and on the basis of elementary principles of natural disasters risk assessment,calculative model was established to obtain comprehensive flood disaster risk value which was computed by the integrated dangerous degree and comprehensive socio-economic vulnerability.Based on 30 m ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model(GDEM) data,climate data from 37 meteorological stations during 1971 to 2006,and 2008 socioeconomic statistic data,with the support of ArcGIS and quantitative geo-science methods,the regionalization map of comprehensive risk of flood disaster in study area was drawn by calculating proportion of risk areas.The regionalization map divided general risk assessed results mainly into four grades,that is,the lower risk region,moderate risk region,higher risk region and the highest risk regions.The results show that the highest integrated dangerous degree of flood disaster areas are mainly distributed in Xiangyin and Chang-Zhu-Tan region which along the lower reaches of Xiangjiang River.The highest comprehensive socioeconomic vulnerability areas is distributed in urban that in high population density.Xiangyin,Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and Hengyang belong to the highest comprehensive flood disaster risk areas.The results can provide quantitatively theoretic basis for environmental management and ecological risk decision-making.%以湘江湖南段河流沿线地区为例,基于自然灾害风险评价的基本原理构建了洪水灾害综合风险值计算模型,即综合危险度和综合社会经济易损度的叠加。利用研究区全球数字高程模型(GDEM)数据、1971~2007年地面气象站观测数据和2008年社会经济统计数据等,借助地理信息系统(GIS)技术和地学

  4. Designing reasonable accommodation of the workplace: a new methodology based on risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigini, L; Andrich, R; Liverani, G; Bucciarelli, P; Occhipinti, E

    2010-05-01

    If working tasks are carried out in inadequate conditions, workers with functional limitations may, over time, risk developing further disabilities. While several validated risk assessment methods exist for able-bodied workers, few studies have been carried out for workers with disabilities. This article, which reports the findings of a Study funded by the Italian Ministry of Labour, proposes a general methodology for the technical and organisational re-design of a worksite, based on risk assessment and irrespective of any worker disability. To this end, a sample of 16 disabled workers, composed of people with either mild or severe motor disabilities, was recruited. Their jobs include business administration (5), computer programmer (1), housewife (1), mechanical worker (2), textile worker (1), bus driver (1), nurse (2), electrical worker (1), teacher (1), warehouseman (1). By using a mix of risk assessment methods and the International Classification of Functioning (ICF) taxonomy, their worksites were re-designed in view of a reasonable accommodation, and prospective evaluation was carried out to check whether the new design would eliminate the risks. In one case - a man with congenital malformations who works as a help-desk operator for technical assistance in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) department of a big organisation - the accommodation was actually carried out within the time span of the study, thus making it possible to confirm the hypotheses raised in the prospective assessment.

  5. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on t

  6. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on t

  7. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  8. PROACT: Iterative Design of a Patient-Centered Visualization for Effective Prostate Cancer Health Risk Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakone, Anzu; Harrison, Lane; Ottley, Alvitta; Winters, Nathan; Gutheil, Caitlin; Han, Paul K J; Chang, Remco

    2017-01-01

    Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the US, and yet most cases represent localized cancer for which the optimal treatment is unclear. Accumulating evidence suggests that the available treatment options, including surgery and conservative treatment, result in a similar prognosis for most men with localized prostate cancer. However, approximately 90% of patients choose surgery over conservative treatment, despite the risk of severe side effects like erectile dysfunction and incontinence. Recent medical research suggests that a key reason is the lack of patient-centered tools that can effectively communicate personalized risk information and enable them to make better health decisions. In this paper, we report the iterative design process and results of developing the PROgnosis Assessment for Conservative Treatment (PROACT) tool, a personalized health risk communication tool for localized prostate cancer patients. PROACT utilizes two published clinical prediction models to communicate the patients' personalized risk estimates and compare treatment options. In collaboration with the Maine Medical Center, we conducted two rounds of evaluations with prostate cancer survivors and urologists to identify the design elements and narrative structure that effectively facilitate patient comprehension under emotional distress. Our results indicate that visualization can be an effective means to communicate complex risk information to patients with low numeracy and visual literacy. However, the visualizations need to be carefully chosen to balance readability with ease of comprehension. In addition, due to patients' charged emotional state, an intuitive narrative structure that considers the patients' information need is critical to aid the patients' comprehension of their risk information.

  9. Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, T. J.

    2012-04-01

    The aftermath of recent earthquakes is a reminder that seismic risk is a very relevant issue for our communities. Implicit within the seismic design standards currently in place around the world is that minimum acceptable levels of seismic risk will be ensured through design in accordance with the codes. All the same, none of the design standards specify what the minimum acceptable level of seismic risk actually is. Instead, a series of deterministic limit states are set which engineers then demonstrate are satisfied for their structure, typically through the use of elastic dynamic analyses adjusted to account for non-linear response using a set of empirical correction factors. From the early nineties the seismic engineering community has begun to recognise numerous fundamental shortcomings with such seismic design procedures in modern codes. Deficiencies include the use of elastic dynamic analysis for the prediction of inelastic force distributions, the assignment of uniform behaviour factors for structural typologies irrespective of the structural proportions and expected deformation demands, and the assumption that hysteretic properties of a structure do not affect the seismic displacement demands, amongst other things. In light of this a number of possibilities have emerged for improved control of risk through seismic design, with several innovative displacement-based seismic design methods now well developed. For a specific seismic design intensity, such methods provide a more rational means of controlling the response of a structure to satisfy performance limit states. While the development of such methodologies does mark a significant step forward for the control of seismic risk, they do not, on their own, identify the seismic risk of a newly designed structure. In the U.S. a rather elaborate performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework is under development, with the aim of providing seismic loss estimates for new buildings. The PBEE framework

  10. Spatio-temporal assessment of soil erosion risk in different agricultural zones of the Inle Lake region, southern Shan State, Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Htwe, Thin Nwe; Brinkmann, Katja; Buerkert, Andreas

    2015-10-01

    Myanmar is one of Southeast Asia's climatically most diverse countries, where sheet, rill, and gully erosion affect crop yields and subsequently livelihood strategies of many people. In the unique wetland ecosystem of Inle Lake, soil erosion in surrounding uplands lead to sedimentation and pollution of the water body. The current study uses the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to identify soil erosion risks of the Inle Lake region in space and time and to assess the relationship between soil erosion and degradation for different agricultural zones and cropping systems. Altogether, 85% of soil losses occurred on barren land along the steep slopes. The hotspot of soil erosion risk is situated in the western uplands characterized by unsustainable land use practices combined with a steep topography. The estimated average soil losses amounted to 19.9, 10.1, and 26.2 t ha(-1) yr(-1) in 1989, 2000, and 2009, respectively. These fluctuations were mainly the results of changes in precipitation and land cover (deforestation (-19%) and expansion of annual cropland (+35%) from 1989 to 2009). Most farmers in the study area have not yet adopted effective soil protection measures to mitigate the effects of soil erosion such as land degradation and water pollution of the lake reservoir. This urgently needs to be addressed by policy makers and extension services.

  11. Epidemiology of cardiovascular risk factors in Greece: aims, design and baseline characteristics of the ATTICA study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrysohoou Christina

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In an attempt to evaluate the levels of several cardiovascular risk factors in Greece we conducted a population-based health and nutrition survey, the "ATTICA study". In this work we present the design and the methodology of the study, as well as the status of various baseline characteristics of the participants. Methods From May 2001 to December 2002 we randomly enrolled 1514 adult men and 1528 adult women, stratified by age – gender (census 2000, from the greater area of Athens. More than 300 demographic, lifestyle, behavioral, dietary, clinical and biochemical variables have been recorded. Results Regarding the frequency of the classical cardiovascular risk factors we observed that 51% of men and 39% of women reported smokers (p Conclusions The prevalence of the common cardiovascular risk factors in our population seems high. As a consequence a considerable proportion of Greek adults are at "high-risk" for future cardiovascular events.

  12. Risk Analysis Of Collision Between Passenger Ferry And Chemical Tanker In The Western Zone Of The Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przywarty Marcin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution, that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks.

  13. Zoning should promote public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschhorn, Joel S

    2004-01-01

    Legally, governments use their police powers to protect public health, safety, and welfare through zoning. This paper presents a case for revisiting zoning on the basis of increasing evidence that certain types of community design promote public health, as opposed to the dominant pattern of sprawl development, which does not. Zoning, and the land use planning linked to it, that prohibits or disfavors health-promoting community designs contradicts the inherent public policy goal on which it is based. If there is a paradigm shift underway, from traditional sprawl to health-promoting community designs, then health professionals and others should understand why zoning must be reassessed.

  14. Jingyang Drought Disaster Risk Zoning Based on GIS%基于GIS的泾阳县干旱灾害风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尚小宁; 高峰; 张益兴; 刘进; 赵新莹; 李泾民; 刘新生

    2013-01-01

    本文用自然灾害系统理论、灾害风险评估原理和GIS技术,构建了以干旱致灾因子、成灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力为区划因子的综合干旱灾害风险评估模型,将旱灾的自然属性和社会属性相结合,得到以乡镇为单元的泾阳县干旱灾害风险区划图。结果显示:泾阳县东部龙泉乡、永乐镇、崇文乡、高庄镇东部、三渠镇南部为干旱灾害高风险区,白王镇、口镇、王桥镇为干旱灾害次低及低风险区,中部大部及其余地区则为中等及次高风险区。%In this paper, comprehensive drought disaster risk evaluation model is established by using the natural disaster system theory, disaster risk evaluation theory and GIS technology, and using drought disaster-inducing factors, disaster-causing environment, hazard-affected body and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities as the factors for regionalization, and combined with the natural attribute and social attribute of drought, it gets to the drought disaster risk zoning map of Jingyang county taking township as a unit. The result shows that the following areas are drought disaster high risk area: Longquan township, Yongle township, Chongwen township, east of Gaozhuang township, north of Sanqu township; the following areas are secondary-low drought disaster risk area: Baiwang township, Kou township, Wangqiao township;middle area and other place are medium and secondary high drought disaster risk area.

  15. Hydrological Design of Two Low-Impact Development Techniques in a Semi-Arid Climate Zone of Central Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Lizárraga-Mendiola

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the design of a bioretention cell and an infiltration trench in a semi- arid micro watershed. The study area was analyzed by characteristics such as slope changes (S, direction and maximum length of the urban runoff (L, and soil use (runoff coefficient, Rc. The bioretention cell was designed by the calculation of variables such as drainage area (A, concentration time (Tc, rainfall intensity (i, maximum peak drained (Qmax, inlet and outlet runoff (Qa and Qout, respectively, temperature (T, evaporation (Ev, potential evapotranspiration (PEm, consumptive use (U for tolerant plants to semi-arid climates, and soil infiltration capacity (Inf. To design the infiltration trench, only Tc, Qmax, and i were taken into account. The results showed that the designed bioretention cell could retain between 5.37% and 2.25% of runoff volume. As the efficiency of the bioretention cell can be defined by the need for additional irrigation, our results showed that the cell is inefficient in some of the dry months (November and December, even in years characterized by abundant rainfall. Besides, it was shown that the designed infiltration trench could store or infiltrate the water from typical rain events. Based on these results, it is the implementation of more Low-Impact Development (LID for runoff management in the study area is recommended.

  16. Structural Design of a 4-Meter Off-Axis Space Telescope for the Habitable-Zone Exoplanet Direct Imaging Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, William, Sr.; Stahl, H Philip

    2017-01-01

    This design study was conducted to support the HABEX project. There are a number of companion papers at this conference which go into detail on what all the HABEX goals are. The objective of this paper is to establish a baseline primary mirror design which satisfies the following structural related requirements. The designs in this study have a high TRL (Technology Readiness Level), realistic manufacturing limits and performance in line with the HABEX mission. A secondary goal of the study was to evaluate a number competing criteria for the selection. Questions such as differences in the on axis versus off axis static and dynamic response to disturbances. This study concentrates on the structural behavior, companion papers cover thermal and long term stability aspects of the problem.

  17. Household-level risk factors for Newcastle disease seropositivity and incidence of Newcastle disease virus exposure in backyard chicken flocks in Eastern Shewa zone, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaka, Hassen; Goutard, Flavie; Roger, Francois; Bisschop, Shahn P R; Thompson, Peter N

    2013-05-01

    A cross-sectional study with repeated sampling was conducted to investigate potential risk factors for Newcastle disease (ND) seropositivity and for incidence of ND virus (NDV) exposure in household flocks of backyard chickens in Eastern Shewa zone, Ethiopia. Data were collected from 260 randomly selected households in 52 villages in Adami Tulu Jido Kombolcha and Ada'a woredas (districts) using a structured questionnaire, and serum samples from chickens were tested for NDV antibodies using a blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Sampling took place during September 2009 and the same households were again sampled in May 2010. Household-level seroprevalence and incidence of NDV exposure were estimated in various ways using serological results from the two samplings, flock dynamics, and farmers' reports of ND in their flocks. The risk factors were assessed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models. Household-level seroprevalence at the two sampling times was 17.4% and 27.4%, respectively, and the estimated incidence of household-level NDV exposure during the intervening period ranged between 19.7% and 25.5%. At the first sampling, reduced frequency of cleaning of poultry waste was associated with increased odds of seropositivity (OR=4.78; 95% CI: 1.42, 16.11; P=0.01) while hatching at home vs. other sources (buying in replacement birds, receiving as gift or buying fertile eggs) was associated with lower odds of seropositivity, both at the first sampling (OR=0.30; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.82; P=0.02) and the second sampling (OR=0.23; 95% CI: 0.10, 0.52; PNewcastle disease seroprevalence and incidence of NDV exposure were more heterogeneous between villages than between kebeles (aggregations of villages) and woredas in the study area. Further investigation of village-level risk factors would likely improve our understanding of ND epidemiology in backyard chickens.

  18. Risk factors associated with slide positivity among febrile patients in a conflict zone of north-eastern Myanmar along the China-Myanmar border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Nana; Parker, Daniel M; Yang, Zhaoqing; Fan, Qi; Zhou, Guofa; Ai, Guoping; Duan, Jianhua; Lee, Ming-chieh; Yan, Guiyun; Matthews, Stephen A; Cui, Liwang; Wang, Ying

    2013-10-10

    Malaria within the Greater Mekong sub-region is extremely heterogeneous. While China and Thailand have been relatively successful in controlling malaria, Myanmar continues to see high prevalence. Coupled with the recent emergence of artemisinin-resistant malaria along the Thai-Myanmar border, this makes Myanmar an important focus of malaria within the overall region. However, accurate epidemiological data from Myanmar have been lacking, in part because of ongoing and emerging conflicts between the government and various ethnic groups. Here the results are reported from a risk analysis of malaria slide positivity in a conflict zone along the China-Myanmar border. Surveys were conducted in 13 clinics and hospitals around Laiza City, Myanmar between April 2011 and October 2012. Demographic, occupational and educational information, as well as malaria infection history, were collected. Logistic models were used to assess risk factors for slide positivity. Age patterns in Plasmodium vivax infections were younger than those with Plasmodium falciparum. Furthermore, males were more likely than females to have falciparum infections. Patients who reported having been infected with malaria during the previous year were much more likely to have a current vivax infection. During the second year of the study, falciparum infections among soldiers increased signficiantly. These results fill some knowledge gaps with regard to risk factors associated with malaria slide positivity in this conflict region of north-eastern Myanmar. Since epidemiological studies in this region have been rare or non-existent, studies such as the current are crucial for understanding the dynamic nature of malaria in this extremely heterogeneous epidemiological landscape.

  19. Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

  20. Design and laboratory testing of a chamber device to measure total flux of volatile organic compounds from the unsaturated zone under natural conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Fred D.; Smith, James A.

    2004-11-01

    To determine if an aquifer contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) has potential for natural remediation, all natural processes affecting the fate and transport of VOCs in the subsurface must be identified and quantified. This research addresses the quantification of air-phase volatile organic compounds (VOCs) leaving the unsaturated zone soil gas and entering the atmosphere—including the additional flux provided by advective soil-gas movement induced by barometric pumping. A simple and easy-to-use device for measuring VOC flux under natural conditions is presented. The vertical flux chamber (VFC) was designed using numerical simulations and evaluated in the laboratory. Mass-balance numerical simulations based on continuously stirred tank reactor equations (CSTR) provided information on flux measurement performance of several sampling configurations with the final chamber configuration measuring greater than 96% of model-simulated fluxes. A laboratory device was constructed to evaluate the flux chamber under both diffusion-only and advection-plus-diffusion transport conditions. The flux chamber measured an average of 82% of 15 diffusion-only fluxes and an average of 95% of 15 additional advection-plus-diffusion flux experiments. The vertical flux chamber has the capability of providing reliable measurement of VOC flux from the unsaturated zone under both diffusion and advection transport conditions.

  1. Risk-based Process Development of Biosimilars as Part of the Quality by Design Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalai, Dénes; Dietzsch, Christian; Herwig, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    In the last few years, several quality by design (QbD) studies demonstrated the benefit of systematic approaches for biopharmaceutical development. However, only very few studies identified biosimilars as a special case of product development. The targeted quality profile of biosimilars is strictly defined by the originator's product characteristic. Moreover, the major source of prior knowledge is the experience with the originator product itself. Processing this information in biosimilar development has a major effect on risk management and process development strategies. The main objective of this contribution is to demonstrate how risk management can facilitate the implementation of QbD in early-stage product development with special emphasis on fitting the reported approaches to biosimilars. Risk assessments were highlighted as important tools to integrate prior knowledge in biosimilar development. The risk assessment process as suggested by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH Q9) was reviewed and three elements were identified to play a key role in targeted risk assessment approaches: proper understanding of target linkage, risk assessment tool compliance, and criticality threshold value. Adjusting these steps to biosimilar applications helped to address some unique challenges of these products such as a strictly defined quality profile or a lack of process knowledge. This contribution demonstrates the need for tailored risk management approaches for the risk-based development of biosimilars and provides novel tools for the integration of additional knowledge available for these products. The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges such as profit loss and price competition. Companies are forced to rationalize business models and to cut costs in development as well as manufacturing. These trends recently hinder the implementation of any concepts that do not offer certain financial benefit or promise a long return of investment. Quality by

  2. Uncertainty analysis and risk-based design of detention basin without damage function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Yeou-Koung

    2017-05-01

    Risk-based analysis provides an economically defensible framework for determining the optimal design of hydrosystems with the minimum total cost including project cost (installation plus operation/maintenance/repair) and failure-induced expected damage cost. However, failure-related damage function with good quality may not be widely available in practical applications for assessing annual expected damage cost. In addition to aleatory uncertainty representing natural randomness of hydrologic events, there exists a variety of epistemic uncertainties due to knowledge deficiency from the use of inadequate models, inaccurate model parameters, etc. The presence of epistemic uncertainties could affect the loads and capacity of hydrosystem facilities which, in turn, would affect the value of failure-induced physical performance indicators. Using detention basin design as an example, this paper presents a systematic framework to integrate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties for the risk-based design under the condition of no monetary damage function. For illustration, aleatory uncertainty due to randomness of rainfall intensity and epistemic uncertainties caused by runoff coefficient and curve number are considered in risk-based design of an example detention basin.

  3. Investigating risk and robustness measures for supply chain network design under demand uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Fattahi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses a multi-stage and multi-period supply chain network design problem in which multiple commodities should be produced through different subsequent levels of manufacturing processes. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic program under stochastic and highly time......-variable demands. To deal with the stochastic demands, a Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate a fan of scenarios and then, a backward scenario reduction technique reduces the number of scenarios. Weighted mean-risk objectives by using different risk measures and minimax objective are examined...

  4. Buffer Zone Requirements for Soil Fumigant Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Updated pesticide product labels require fumigant users to establish a buffer zone around treated fields to reduce risks to bystanders. Useful information includes tarp testing guidance and a buffer zone calculator.

  5. Design of a score to identify hospitalized patients at risk of drug-related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbina, Olatz; Ferrández, Olivia; Grau, Santiago; Luque, Sonia; Mojal, Sergi; Marin-Casino, Monica; Mateu-de-Antonio, Javier; Carmona, Alexia; Conde-Estévez, David; Espona, Merce; González, Elena; Riu, Marta; Salas, Esther

    2014-09-01

    The potential impact of drug-related problems (DRP) on morbidity and mortality is a serious concern in hospitalized patients. This study aimed to design a risk score to identify patients most at risk of a DRP. Data from patients admitted to a tertiary university hospital between January and August 2009 were used to design the risk score (training set). DRP were detected through a pharmacy warning system integrated in the computerized medical history. The variables associated with developing a DRP were identified through a binary multivariate logistic regression analysis and were used to compute the DRP risk score, which was subsequently validated in patients admitted between September and December 2009 (validation set). Of the 8713 patients included in the training set, at least one DRP was detected in 2425 (27.8%). Prescription of a higher number of drugs, higher comorbidity, advanced age, certain groups of the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification system, and some major diagnostic categories were associated with risk of DRP. These variables were used to compute the DRP risk score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.778 (95%CI [0.768, 0.789]). Of the 4058 admissions included in the validation set, at least one DRP was detected in 876 (21.6%). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.776 (95%CI [0.759, 0.792]). Knowledge of the variables associated with DRP could aid their early detection in at-risk patients. The use of an application that can be continually updated in daily clinical practice helps to optimize resources. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  7. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  8. Zero-tension lysimeters: An improved design to monitor colloid-facilitated contaminant transport in the vadose zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, M.L.; Scharf, R.L.; Shang, C.

    1995-04-24

    There is increasing evidence that mobile colloids facilitate the long-distance transport of contaminants. The mobility of fine particles and macromolecules has been linked to the movement of actinides, organic contaminants, and heavy metals through soil. Direct evidence for colloid mobility includes the presence of humic materials in deep aquifers as well as coatings of accumulated clay, organic matter, or sesquioxides on particle or aggregate surfaces in subsoil horizons of many soils. The potential for colloid-facilitated transport of contaminants from hazardous-waste sites requires adequate monitoring before, during, and after in-situ remediation treatments. Zero-tension lysimeters (ZTLs) are especially appropriate for sampling water as it moves through saturated soil, although some unsaturated flow events may be sampled as well. Because no ceramic barrier or fiberglass wick is involved to maintain tension on the water (as is the case with other lysimeters), particles suspended in the water as well as dissolved species may be sampled with ZTLs. In this report, a ZTL design is proposed that is more suitable for monitoring colloid-facilitated contaminant migration. The improved design consists of a cylinder made of polycarbonate or polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) that is placed below undisturbed soil material. In many soils, a hydraulically powered tube may be used to extract an undisturbed core of soil before placement of the lysimeter. In those cases, the design has significant advantages over conventional designs with respect to simplicity and speed of installation. Therefore, it will allow colloid-facilitated transport of contaminants to be monitored at more locations at a given site.

  9. Design requirements for ERD in diffusion-dominated media: how do injection interval, bioactive zones and reaction kinetics affect remediation performance?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Lemming, Gitte; Manoli, Gabriele

    Enhanced Reductive Dechlorination (ERD) has been successfully used in high permeability media, such as sand aquifers, and is considered to be a promising technology for low permeability settings. Pilot and full-scale applications of ERD at several sites in Denmark have shown that the main challenge...... transport processes, and this affects the timeframes for the remediation. Due to the limited ERD applications and the complex transport and reactive processes occurring in low-permeability media, design guidelines are currently not available for ERD in such settings, and remediation performance assessments...... are limited. The objective of this study is to combine existing knowledge from several sites with numerical modeling to assess the effect of the injection interval, development of bioactive zones and reaction kinetics on the remediation efficiency for ERD in diffusion-dominated media. A numerical model...

  10. A contribution to the hydraulic design of bridges in coastal zones; Una contribucion al diseno hidraulico de puentes en zonas costeras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez Bribiesca, J.L.; Gracia Sanchez, J. [Instituto de Ingenieria, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2004-06-01

    It is proposed a criterion to determine, from the hydraulic point of view, the width and the height of bridges of coastal zones. The criterion uses information of failed and not failed bridges (both in the same current). The criterion allows the design of new bridges and the revision of the existing ones others existent ones. Numerical examples are included. [Spanish] Se presenta un criterio para determinar el ancho y la altura de puentes sobre rios de zonas costeras desde el punto de vista hidraulico. El criterio empleo informacion de puentes fallados y no fallados (sobre una misma corriente); asimismo, permitio tanto el diseno de puentes nuevos, como la revision de otros existentes. Se incluyen ejemplos numericos.

  11. 南宁吴圩国际机场北部排涝涵设计%Drainage culvert design for northern zone of Nanning Wuxu International Airport

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周远丽

    2012-01-01

      The northern zone of Nanning Wuxu International Airport requires a new drainage channel to discharge water into Naleng river. An introduction was made on the comparison and selection of drainage routes and cross sec⁃tion types based on topographical,geological and hydrological information,determination of profile dimensions, preliminary design of selected scheme.%  南宁吴圩国际机场建成后需要新建1条排涝渠将从北部出水口排出的水引入那楞河。为此,根据地形地质及水文资料对北部排涝涵工程进行线路、断面型式比选,并确定断面尺寸,然后对选定的方案进行初步设计。

  12. 中国南方塑料大棚气象灾害风险区划%Meteorological disaster greenhouse in risk zoning for plastic south China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨再强; 朱凯; 赵翔; 张婷华; 彭晓丹; 周志龙

    2012-01-01

    This paper is to evaluate the meteorological disaster effect of the agricultural facilities in south China. Based on the meteorological data of 160 meteorological stations in 15 south provinces from 1990 to 2009, considering the main hazard factors such as temperature, sunlight, precipitation and wind speed, the meteorological disaster projection pursuit grade evaluation model of Southern Plastic Greenhouse was built using real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm. Then, monthly and seasonal risk levels of plastic greenhouse meteorological disasters were calculated and risk zoning for every season was conducted. Results show that in spring, Sichuan Basin is the lowest risk areas as the temperature rise rapidly, which is favorable to plant growth. Areas like Chongqing and Guizhou have the highest level of risk due to the less solar radiation ; in summer, coastal regions have high risks, because frequently occurred storms, typhoons and other natural disasters have a greater impact on the facility structure; in autumn, disaster risk is generally low, with rare high distribution; in winter, latitude 25°N is a dividing line, north of which is not suitable for the development of plastic greenhouse due to low temperature and sparse light conditions, and thus the disaster risk level is high. In contrast, regions at south of the line, the risk is low. In south China, the most suitable areas for the development of plastic greenhouses are west areas in autumn, south areas in winter, and Sichuan Basin in summer and spring. The results could provide a reference to the reasonable layout of the development of southern plastic greenhouse and the prevention of meteorological disasters.%利用中国南方地区15个省市自治区160个气象观测站台1990-2009年的气象资料,综合考虑气温、光照、风速、降水等主要致灾因子,并根据这些数据建立了基于实数编码的加速遗传算法的南方塑料大棚气象灾害的投影寻踪等级评价模型,

  13. Development of an aggregation methodology for risk analysis in aerospace conceptual vehicle design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chytka, Trina Marsh

    2003-10-01

    The growing complexity of technical systems has emphasized a need to gather as much information as possible regarding specific systems of interest in order to make robust, sound decisions about their design and deployment. Acquiring as much data as possible requires the use of empirical statistics, historical information and expert opinion. In much of the aerospace conceptual design environment, the lack of historical information and infeasibility of gathering empirical data relegates the data collection to expert opinion. The conceptual design of a space vehicle requires input from several disciplines (weights and sizing, operations, trajectory, etc.). In this multidisciplinary environment, the design variables are often not easily quantified and have a high degree of uncertainty associated with their values. Decision-makers must rely on expert assessments of the uncertainty associated with the design variables to evaluate the risk level of a conceptual design. Since multiple experts are often queried for their evaluation of uncertainty, a means to combine/aggregate multiple expert assessments must be developed. Providing decision-makers with a solitary assessment that captures the consensus of the multiple experts would greatly enhance the ability to evaluate risk associated with a conceptual design. The objective of this research has been to develop an aggregation methodology that efficiently combines the uncertainty assessments of multiple experts in multiple disciplines involved in aerospace conceptual design. Bayesian probability augmented by uncertainty modeling and expert calibration was employed in the methodology construction. Appropriate questionnaire techniques were used to acquire expert opinion; the responses served as input distributions to the aggregation algorithm. Application of the derived techniques were applied as part of a larger expert assessment elicitation and calibration study. Results of this research demonstrate that aggregation of

  14. Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  15. Design Concept of Human Interface System for Risk Monitoring for Proactive Trouble Prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hidekazu, Yoshikawa; Ming, Yang; Zhijian, Zhang

    2011-01-01

    as reactor coolant in Monju plant, the maintenance for Monju should utilize more automated equipments of remote control and robotics than that of light water reactor. It is necessary to design optimum task allocation between human and automated machine as the requisites for good communication design of human...... interface systems to support the collaboration work between workers at local workplace and the main control room. In this paper, the general issues are reviewed on how to configure the whole human interface system for helping proactive trouble prevention and risk evaluation on the basis of the presented...

  16. Cyber-Informed Engineering: The Need for a New Risk Informed and Design Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Joseph Daniel [Idaho National Laboratory; Anderson, Robert Stephen [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-06-01

    Current engineering and risk management methodologies do not contain the foundational assumptions required to address the intelligent adversary’s capabilities in malevolent cyber attacks. Current methodologies focus on equipment failures or human error as initiating events for a hazard, while cyber attacks use the functionality of a trusted system to perform operations outside of the intended design and without the operator’s knowledge. These threats can by-pass or manipulate traditionally engineered safety barriers and present false information, invalidating the fundamental basis of a safety analysis. Cyber threats must be fundamentally analyzed from a completely new perspective where neither equipment nor human operation can be fully trusted. A new risk analysis and design methodology needs to be developed to address this rapidly evolving threatscape.

  17. Systems Engineering Design Via Experimental Operation Research: Complex Organizational Metric for Programmatic Risk Environments (COMPRE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1999-01-01

    Unique and innovative graph theory, neural network, organizational modeling, and genetic algorithms are applied to the design and evolution of programmatic and organizational architectures. Graph theory representations of programs and organizations increase modeling capabilities and flexibility, while illuminating preferable programmatic/organizational design features. Treating programs and organizations as neural networks results in better system synthesis, and more robust data modeling. Organizational modeling using covariance structures enhances the determination of organizational risk factors. Genetic algorithms improve programmatic evolution characteristics, while shedding light on rulebase requirements for achieving specified technological readiness levels, given budget and schedule resources. This program of research improves the robustness and verifiability of systems synthesis tools, including the Complex Organizational Metric for Programmatic Risk Environments (COMPRE).

  18. Design of experiments for amino acid extraction from tobacco leaves and their subsequent determination by capillary zone electrophoresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodek, Ondřej; Křížek, Tomáš; Coufal, Pavel; Ryšlavá, Helena

    2017-01-13

    In this study, we optimized a method for the determination of free amino acids in Nicotiana tabacum leaves. Capillary electrophoresis with contactless conductivity detector was used for the separation of 20 proteinogenic amino acids in acidic background electrolyte. Subsequently, the conditions of extraction with HCl were optimized for the highest extraction yield of the amino acids because sample treatment of plant materials brings some specific challenges. Central composite face-centered design with fractional factorial design was used in order to evaluate the significance of selected factors (HCl volume, HCl concentration, sonication, shaking) on the extraction process. In addition, the composite design helped us to find the optimal values for each factor using the response surface method. The limits of detection and limits of quantification for the 20 proteinogenic amino acids were found to be in the order of 10(-5) and 10(-4) mol l(-1), respectively. Addition of acetonitrile to the sample was tested as a method commonly used to decrease limits of detection. Ambiguous results of this experiment pointed out some features of plant extract samples, which often required specific approaches. Suitability of the method for metabolomic studies was tested by analysis of a real sample, in which all amino acids, except for L-methionine and L-cysteine, were successfully detected. The optimized extraction process together with the capillary electrophoresis method can be used for the determination of proteinogenic amino acids in plant materials. The resulting inexpensive, simple, and robust method is well suited for various metabolomic studies in plants. As such, the method represents a valuable tool for research and practical application in the fields of biology, biochemistry, and agriculture.

  19. Research design for hydrologic response to watershed treatments in the mixed conifer zone of California's Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battles, J.; Bales, R.; Conklin, M.; Saksa, P.; Martin, S.

    2008-12-01

    Water quantity response to forest management is of great interest in California's Sierra Nevada, owing to shifts in the rain-snow transition elevation associated with climate change, increasing value of hydropower from high-elevation dams, and the re-examination of adaptive management strategies for wildfire mitigation. In 2006 we initiated a multi-disciplinary research program to inform adaptive management for Forest Service lands in the Sierra Nevada. The forest treatment approach is based on disconnected, overlapping fuel treatment patches (forest thinning) to reduce the rate and intensity of fire. As little as 30% of the area in a given catchment will be treated. Controlling for confounding influences is particularly challenging when the experimental unit is a whole landscape and the inferential reference is an entire region. To isolate water and ecosystem impacts related to forest thinning, we are using a Before After Control Impact (BACI) design in conjunction with mechanistic modeling. BACI compensates for the sparse replication (2 sites) and the non- random assignment of the treatments by providing robust longitudinal controls. BACI design defines two treatments, a control and an impact. For modeling fire and wildlife response we chose subdivided the region into two 40-km2 sub-firesheds; within each is a 1-km2 hydrologic study catchment. The control site in this a measure of natural variation rather than a true control. Meta-replication using parallel studies in the Sierra Nevada with different approaches is also an important component and involves a creative combination of data from multiple sources. Rather than statistical comparisons or traditional hypothesis testing, we will measure the support in the data for our a priori expectations using mechanistic models. We are currently evaluating how to extend this research design to private forest lands with a wider range of management options.

  20. Designing prevention programmes to reduce incidence of dementia: prospective cohort study of modifiable risk factors.

    OpenAIRE

    Ritchie, Karen; Carrière, Isabelle; Ritchie, Craig; Berr, Claudine; Artero, Sylvaine; Ancelin, Marie-Laure

    2010-01-01

    International audience; OBJECTIVE: To estimate the percentage reduction in incidence of dementia that would be obtained if specific risk factors were eliminated. DESIGN: Prospective seven year cohort study. SETTING: General population, Montpellier, France. PARTICIPANTS: 1433 people aged over 65 with a mean baseline age of 72.5 (SD 5.1) years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment or dementia established by a standardised neurological examination. RESULTS: Cox models we...

  1. Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation and Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Design Using Value at Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhongqiuZhao

    2004-01-01

    Traditional evaluation techniques for mutual funds are based on CAPM or APT. Propose a new measure benefiting from Value at Risk is proposed in this paper.We show how to apply the VAR dynamics to the evaluation of mutual funds. Meanwhile,we applied the idea to the design of dynamic portfolio construction strategies. As for the portfolio weight adjusting, this paper is focused on the optimal adjusting strategies with cost happens and those on concrete time points.

  2. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herva, Marta [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Alvarez, Antonio [Industrias de Diseno Textil, S.A., Edificio Inditex, Av. de la Diputacion s/n, Poligono de Sabon, 15142 Arteixo - A Coruna (Spain); Roca, Enrique, E-mail: enrique.roca@usc.es [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: {yields} The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. {yields} The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. {yields} Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. {yields} Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. {yields} Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm{sup 2}) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm{sup 2}). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would

  3. Architectural Design Education: Designing a Library, Public Communication and Information Center in the Manufacturing Zone of Central Eskis, Ehir Turkey, a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caglar, Nur; Uludag, Zeynep

    2006-01-01

    It is a fact that architectural design education has become the focus of an extremely complicated set of issues and conscientious debates. Therefore, to extend and challenge educational understanding in architecture it becomes crucial to exchange pedagogical practices. In this article, a specific theoretical approach and teaching methodology,…

  4. Architectural Design Education: Designing a Library, Public Communication and Information Center in the Manufacturing Zone of Central Eskis, Ehir Turkey, a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caglar, Nur; Uludag, Zeynep

    2006-01-01

    It is a fact that architectural design education has become the focus of an extremely complicated set of issues and conscientious debates. Therefore, to extend and challenge educational understanding in architecture it becomes crucial to exchange pedagogical practices. In this article, a specific theoretical approach and teaching methodology,…

  5. Using the Design for Demise Philosophy to Reduce Casualty Risk Due to Reentering Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Recently the reentry of a number of vehicles has garnered public attention due to their risk of human casualty due to fragments surviving reentry. In order to minimize this risk for their vehicles, a number of NASA programs have actively sought to minimize the number of components likely to survive reentry at the end of their spacecraft's life in order to meet and/or exceed NASA safety standards for controlled and uncontrolled reentering vehicles. This philosophy, referred to as "Design for Demise" or D4D, has steadily been adopted, to at least some degree, by numerous programs. The result is that many programs are requesting evaluations of components at the early stages of vehicle design, as they strive to find ways to reduce the number surviving components while ensuring that the components meet the performance requirements of their mission. This paper will discuss some of the methods that have been employed to ensure that the consequences of the vehicle s end-of-life are considered at the beginning of the design process. In addition this paper will discuss the technical challenges overcome, as well as some of the more creative solutions which have been utilized to reduce casualty risk.

  6. Aircraft Conceptual Design and Risk Analysis Using Physics-Based Noise Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Erik D.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2006-01-01

    An approach was developed which allows for design studies of commercial aircraft using physics-based noise analysis methods while retaining the ability to perform the rapid trade-off and risk analysis studies needed at the conceptual design stage. A prototype integrated analysis process was created for computing the total aircraft EPNL at the Federal Aviation Regulations Part 36 certification measurement locations using physics-based methods for fan rotor-stator interaction tones and jet mixing noise. The methodology was then used in combination with design of experiments to create response surface equations (RSEs) for the engine and aircraft performance metrics, geometric constraints and take-off and landing noise levels. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis was used to assess the expected variability of the metrics under the influence of uncertainty, and to determine how the variability is affected by the choice of engine cycle. Finally, the RSEs were used to conduct a series of proof-of-concept conceptual-level design studies demonstrating the utility of the approach. The study found that a key advantage to using physics-based analysis during conceptual design lies in the ability to assess the benefits of new technologies as a function of the design to which they are applied. The greatest difficulty in implementing physics-based analysis proved to be the generation of design geometry at a sufficient level of detail for high-fidelity analysis.

  7. Completion plug design provides improved operational efficiency and safety while minimizing environmental risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dum, Frank [T.D. Williamson, Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Pipeline repair standards have been raised with recent improvements for completion plugs when used with a brand new setting tool, resulting in lower environmental risks, improved operational efficiency and safety. The design changes were originally made to serve in an offshore environment in order to minimize the diver's time in the water and simplify steps by the diver to execute pipeline repair operations in cold, dark conditions. Enhancements in the design include fewer number of fittings, plugs, o-rings and gaskets isolating the pipeline product found inside the pipe. The new design is a step toward meeting strict operational and safety standards demanded in the field of pipeline maintenance and repair. (author)

  8. A New Approach in the Design of High-Risk Infusion Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Murphy

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The syringe infusion pump has been established as the instrument of choice for high-risk infusions, where potent drugs are often delivered at low rates of flow. However, numerous instances of unexpected flow error with consequent patient physiological impact have been reported. These include unwanted bolus delivery on release of line occlusion, dosage fluctuation due to pump height change and fluid reflux within the multiple pump installations now common in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU. This article examines the performance of a typical ICU syringe infusion pump and identifies mechanical compliance, inherent in commercial designs, as a source of flow error that should not be ignored by equipment designers. A prototype low compliance system is described and tested with performance compared to the conventional design, demonstrating advantages in terms of lower flow error.

  9. Fire load energy densities for risk-based design of car parking buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.J. Spearpoint

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The time-equivalence method is one way to determine the appropriate fire severity in buildings. One of the input parameters required is the fire load energy density (FLED and in a deterministic design this is taken to be a fixed value. This paper illustrates the use of a simple Monte Carlo tool that accounts for statistical variations in car energy content as a function of vehicle size to determine probabilistic FLED values for a risk-based calculation approach to the design of car parking buildings. The paper briefly discusses FLED values for car parking buildings that can be found in the literature and results from the Monte Carlo tool suggest that 260 MJ/m2 could be used as an appropriate design value in lieu of using a probabilistic approach.

  10. Supply Chain Network Design Heuristics for Capacitated Facilities under Risk of Supply Disruptions

    CERN Document Server

    Madadi, AliReza; Mason, Scott J; Taaffe, Kevin M

    2012-01-01

    Recent events such as the Heparin tragedy, in which patients lost their lives due to tainted pharmaceuticals, highlight the necessity for supply chain designers and planners to consider the risk of even low probability disruptions in supply chains. One of the most effective ways to hedge against supply chain network disruptions is to robustly design the supply chain network. This involves both strategic decisions (e.g., which suppliers to source from, plant locations, etc.) and tactical decisions (e.g., capacity allocation, etc.). Since disruptions are modeled as events which occur randomly and may have a random length, we consider a mixed-integer stochastic model. However, such network design problems belong to the class of NP-hard problems. Accordingly, we develop efficient heuristic algorithms and a metaheuristic approach to obtain acceptable solutions to these types of problems in reasonable runtimes so that the process of decision making becomes facilitated with no drastic sacrifices in solution quality.

  11. 常州雷灾分布特征及风险区划%Characteristics of lightning disaster distribution and risk zoning of Changzhou

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟颖颖; 束建; 朱恺; 刘红银

    2014-01-01

    The correlation between thunderstorm and lightning disaster is analyzed,based on thunderstorm data in past 60 years,lightning data in recent 5 years and lightning disasters in past 10 years of Changzhou. Results show that the occurrence of lightning disaster can not be solely attributed to natural factors like thunderstorm,flash;an-thropogenic factors like economic development,population density,and lightning protection level may also influence the occurrence and level of lightning disaster.In the loss caused by lightning,failure of electrical and electronic sys-tem accounts for the largest proportion.And the local residents are the most vulnerable to lightning disasters in all industries,which is associated with people�s indifference to lightning protection and short of lightning protection de-vice for residential buildings.Combined with actual situation,7 indexes are put forward to evaluate the lightning dis-aster vulnerability of Changzhou, including thunderstorm days, lightning density, lightning disaster frequency, eco-nomic development, population density, vulnerability of economy and population. Based on data about the population,area and economy in all districts of Changzhou from the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu,lightning disaster vulnerability risk of each district is calculated by analytic hierarchy method,and the risk zoning is classified as high risk area(Wujin district),relatively high risk area(Tianning district and Jintan city),middle risk area(Zhonglou district,Qishuyan district and Liyang city) and low risk area( Xinbei district) .%根据常州近50 a的雷暴数据、近5 a的闪电数据和近10 a的雷灾资料,分析了雷暴和雷灾的相关性,结果表明:雷灾的发生不止与雷暴、闪电等自然因素有关,还可能与地区经济人口分布、区域雷电防护水平等人为因素有关;在雷击造成的损失中,电气和电子系统失效的损害占的比例最大,居民用户遭受雷灾的比重最大

  12. Establishing the soundness of administrative spatial units for operationalising the active living potential of residential environments: an exemplar for designing optimal zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riva Mylène

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In health and place research, definitions of areas, area characteristics, and health outcomes should ideally be coherent with one another. Yet current approaches for delimiting areas mostly rely on spatial units "of convenience" such as census tracts. These areas may be homogeneous along socioeconomic conditions but heterogeneous along other environmental characteristics. This heterogeneity can lead to biased measurement of environment characteristics and misestimation of area effects on health. The objective of this study was to assess the soundness of census tracts as units of analysis for measuring the active living potential of environments, hypothesised to be associated with walking. Results Starting with data at the smallest census area level available, zones homogeneous along three indicators of active living potential, i.e. population density, land use mix, and accessibility to services were designed. Delimitation of zones ensued from statistical clustering of the smallest areas into seven clusters or "types of environment". Mapping of clusters into a GIS led to the delineation of 898 zones characterised by one of seven types of environment, corresponding to different levels of active living potential. Homogeneity of census tracts along indicators of active living potential varied. A greater proportion (83% of variation in accessibility to services was attributable to differences between census tracts suggesting within-tract homogeneity along this variable. However, census tracts were heterogeneous with respect to population density and land use mix where a greater proportion of the variation was attributable to within-tract differences. About 55% of tracts were characterised by a combination of three or more "types of environment" suggesting substantial within-tract heterogeneity in the active living potential of environments. Conclusion Soundness of census tracts for measuring active living potential may be limited

  13. [Growing up under adversity in Germany : Design and methods of a developmental study on risk and protective mechanisms in families with diverse psychosocial risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Peter; Vierhaus, Marc; Eickhorst, Andreas; Sann, Alexandra; Egger, Carine; Förthner, Judith; Gerlach, Jennifer; Iwanski, Alexandra; Liel, Christoph; Podewski, Fritz; Wyrwich, Sandra; Spangler, Gottfried

    2016-10-01

    Family adversity comprises many risk factors for parents and children. The German early intervention approach Frühe Hilfen aims at providing enduring, effective, and scientifically validated prevention and intervention for effective child protection against those risks. The study on risk and protective mechanisms in the development of families with diverse psychosocial risks aims at identifying those mechanisms that cause and stabilize or moderate and diminish maltreatment and neglect, as well as cognitive, social, and emotional developmental deviations in risk families, specifically in the current German social and child protection system. The study examines the development of competence and early behavior problems in a sample of infants and toddlers and the interaction quality with their caregivers by applying a longitudinal sequential-cohort design. The assessments include developmental tests, systematic observations, and questionnaire data. First results suggest stable risk group membership and moderate stability of single risk factors.

  14. Optimal design and operation of a syngas-fuelled SOFC micro CHP system for residential applications in different climate zones in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Wenyuan; Zhao, Yingru; Liso, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    to determine the optimal match between the energy demand of the household for different climates across China and the energy supply of the micro-CHP during the whole year. Moreover, criteria for sizing the system components of the micro-CHP are specifically addressed. The developed methodology can be applied...... under difference climate conditions to ensure that it is well matched with the local heat-to-power ratio. The aim of this study is to investigate the optimal design and operation of a syngas-fuelled SOFC micro-CHP system for small households located in five different climate zones in China. The ability...... of the micro-CHP to cover the heat and electricity demand of a 70 m2 single-family apartment with an average number of occupants of 3 is evaluated. A detailed model of the micro-CHP unit coupled with a hot water storage tank and an auxiliary boiler is developed. System design trade-offs are discussed...

  15. Design of Zero Correlation Zone Sequences via Interleaving Perfect Sequence%基于交织最佳自相关序列的ZCZ序列设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王龙业; 王献

    2012-01-01

    To reduce the limit on the relevant parameters during constructing zero correlation zone (ZCZ) sequences, a novel construction method was proposed to design the near-optimal sequence set with ZCZ. Using the interleaving technique and recursive algorithm, a new ZCZ sequence set can be generated from an arbitrary perfect sequence with a period longer than 4. With the size (I. E. The number of sequences) of the new sequence set kept unchanged, the length and ZCZ width of the new sequence can be doubled by each recursive operation. The constructed near-optimal ZCZ sequence set can approach the mathematical bound, and can successfully provide quasi-synchronous CDMA communication without co-channel interference.%为了减少零相关区序列设计中对相关参数的限制,基于任意一个周期大于4的最佳自相关序列,运用交织技术和递归运算,提出了一类新型的接近最优零相关区序列集的构造方法.通过递归运算,在保持ZCZ( zero correlation zone)序列集包含的序列数目不变的条件下,可以将序列长度和零相关区宽度成倍扩展.构造的ZCZ序列集接近理论界,可应用于准同步CDMA (code division multiple access)通信系统,消除共道干扰,提高通信质量.

  16. Archaeology in the Kilauea East Rift Zone: Part 1, Land-use model and research design, Kapoho, Kamaili and Kilauea Geothermal Subzones, Puna District, Hawaii Island

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burtchard, G.C.; Moblo, P. [International Archaeological Research Inst., Inc., Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1994-07-01

    The Puna Geothermal Resource Subzones (GRS) project area encompasses approximately 22,000 acres centered on the Kilauea East Rift Zone in Puna District, Hawaii Island. The area is divided into three subzones proposed for geothermal power development -- Kilauea Middle East Rift, Kamaili and Kapoho GRS. Throughout the time of human occupation, eruptive episodes along the rift have maintained a dynamic landscape. Periodic volcanic events, for example, have changed the coastline configuration, altered patterns of agriculturally suitable sediments, and created an assortment of periodically active, periodically quiescent, volcanic hazards. Because of the active character of the rift zone, then, the area`s occupants have always been obliged to organize their use of the landscape to accommodate a dynamic mosaic of lava flow types and ages. While the specific configuration of settlements and agricultural areas necessarily changed in response to volcanic events, it is possible to anticipate general patterns in the manner in which populations used the landscape through time. This research design offers a model that predicts the spatial results of long-term land-use patterns and relates them to the character of the archaeological record of that use. In essence, the environmental/land-use model developed here predicts that highest population levels, and hence the greatest abundance and complexity of identifiable prehistoric remains, tended to cluster near the coast at places that maximized access to productive fisheries and agricultural soils. With the possible exception of a few inland settlements, the density of archaeological remains expected to decrease with distance from the coastline. The pattern is generally supported in the regions existing ethnohistoric and archaeological record.

  17. Risk management and statistical multivariate analysis approach for design and optimization of satranidazole nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhat, Shalaka; Pund, Swati; Kokare, Chandrakant; Sharma, Pankaj; Shrivastava, Birendra

    2017-01-01

    Rapidly evolving technical and regulatory landscapes of the pharmaceutical product development necessitates risk management with application of multivariate analysis using Process Analytical Technology (PAT) and Quality by Design (QbD). Poorly soluble, high dose drug, Satranidazole was optimally nanoprecipitated (SAT-NP) employing principles of Formulation by Design (FbD). The potential risk factors influencing the critical quality attributes (CQA) of SAT-NP were identified using Ishikawa diagram. Plackett-Burman screening design was adopted to screen the eight critical formulation and process parameters influencing the mean particle size, zeta potential and dissolution efficiency at 30min in pH7.4 dissolution medium. Pareto charts (individual and cumulative) revealed three most critical factors influencing CQA of SAT-NP viz. aqueous stabilizer (Polyvinyl alcohol), release modifier (Eudragit® S 100) and volume of aqueous phase. The levels of these three critical formulation attributes were optimized by FbD within established design space to minimize mean particle size, poly dispersity index, and maximize encapsulation efficiency of SAT-NP. Lenth's and Bayesian analysis along with mathematical modeling of results allowed identification and quantification of critical formulation attributes significantly active on the selected CQAs. The optimized SAT-NP exhibited mean particle size; 216nm, polydispersity index; 0.250, zeta potential; -3.75mV and encapsulation efficiency; 78.3%. The product was lyophilized using mannitol to form readily redispersible powder. X-ray diffraction analysis confirmed the conversion of crystalline SAT to amorphous form. In vitro release of SAT-NP in gradually pH changing media showed 95%) in pH7.4 in next 3h, indicative of burst release after a lag time. This investigation demonstrated effective application of risk management and QbD tools in developing site-specific release SAT-NP by nanoprecipitation.

  18. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herva, Marta; Álvarez, Antonio; Roca, Enrique

    2011-09-15

    The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm(2)) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm(2)). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would ensure safety conditions during the use stage. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  20. Flexible 'zoning' aids adaptability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corben, Simon

    2013-09-01

    Simon Corben, business development director at Capita Symonds' Health team, examines how 'clever use of zoning' when planning new healthcare facilities could improve hospital design, increase inherent flexibility, and reduce lifetime costs, and argues that a 'loose-fit, non-bespoke approach' to space planning will lead to 'more flexible buildings that are suitable for conversion to alternative uses'.

  1. Herd prevalence of bovine brucellosis and analysis of risk factors in cattle in urban and peri-urban areas of the Kampala economic zone, Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eisler Mark C

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human brucellosis has been found to be prevalent in the urban areas of Kampala, the capital city of Uganda. A cross-sectional study was designed to generate precise information on the prevalence of brucellosis in cattle and risk factors for the disease in its urban and peri-urban dairy farming systems. Results The adjusted herd prevalence of brucellosis was 6.5% (11/177, 95% CI: 3.6%-10.0% and the adjusted individual animal prevalence was 5.0% (21/423, 95% CI: 2.7% - 9.3% based on diagnosis using commercial kits of the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (CELISA for Brucella abortus antibodies. Mean within-herd prevalence was found to be 25.9% (95% CI: 9.7% - 53.1% and brucellosis prevalence in an infected herd ranged from 9.1% to 50%. A risk factor could not be identified at the animal level but two risk factors were identified at the herd level: large herd size and history of abortion. The mean number of milking cows in a free-grazing herd (5.0 was significantly larger than a herd with a movement restricted (1.7, p Conclusions Vaccination should be targeted at commercial large-scale farms with free-grazing farming to control brucellosis in cattle in and around Kampala city.

  2. Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Districts, Enterprise Zones (EZ) are areas defined by the Department of Economic Development (LDED) for the purpose of encouraging economic growth by offering tax credits and incentives to businesses locating or expanding in designated enterprise zone areas., Published in 2005, 1:24000 (1in=2000ft) scale, Louisiana State University.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Districts dataset, published at 1:24000 (1in=2000ft) scale as of 2005. It is described as 'Enterprise Zones (EZ) are areas...

  3. Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Districts, Enterprise Zones (EZ) are areas defined by the Department of Economic Development (LDED) for the purpose of encouraging economic growth by offering tax credits and incentives to businesses locating or expanding in designated enterprise zone areas., Published in 2005, 1:24000 (1in=2000ft) scale, Louisiana State University (LSU).

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Education | GIS Inventory — Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Districts dataset current as of 2005. Enterprise Zones (EZ) are areas defined by the Department of Economic Development (LDED) for...

  4. Study and analysis of occupational risk factors for ergonomic design of construction worksystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parida, Ratri; Ray, Pradip Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Manual material handling (MMH) is unavoidable because of the nature of jobs or tasks as and man-machine interfaces in a construction worksystem. Data were collected from six strata of workers viz., masons, mason helpers, carpenters, welders, gas cutters and ground-level helpers (259 out of 700 workers) from a construction site of a steel plant located in India to analyze different types of occupational risk factors, such as awkward posture, repetitive movements and others associated with MMH activities to assess their impact on musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). It is essential that these risk factors are required to be under control through application of ergonomics-based design approaches for construction worksystem. In this context, multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to identify the significant risk factors among the workers. The results shows that masons, mason helpers, carpenters, welders/gas cutters and ground-level helpers are greatly affected by static body posture, type of tools used, excessive stress due to repetition, awkward postures and extreme climate, respectively. Appropriate preventive and corrective measures are suggested for minimization of risks associated with such jobs/tasks to improve health and performance of the workers.

  5. High risk cohort study for psychiatric disorders in childhood: rationale, design, methods and preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salum, Giovanni Abrahão; Gadelha, Ary; Pan, Pedro Mario; Moriyama, Tais Silveira; Graeff-Martins, Ana Soledade; Tamanaha, Ana Carina; Alvarenga, Pedro; Valle Krieger, Fernanda; Fleitlich-Bilyk, Bacy; Jackowski, Andrea; Sato, João Ricardo; Brietzke, Elisa; Polanczyk, Guilherme Vanoni; Brentani, Helena; de Jesus Mari, Jair; Do Rosário, Maria Conceição; Manfro, Gisele Gus; Bressan, Rodrigo Affonseca; Mercadante, Marcos Tomanik; Miguel, Eurípedes Constantino; Rohde, Luis Augusto

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this study is to present the rationale, methods, design and preliminary results from the High Risk Cohort Study for the Development of Childhood Psychiatric Disorders. We describe the sample selection and the components of each phases of the study, its instruments, tasks and procedures. Preliminary results are limited to the baseline phase and encompass: (i) the efficacy of the oversampling procedure used to increase the frequency of both child and family psychopathology; (ii) interrater reliability and (iii) the role of differential participation rate. A total of 9937 children from 57 schools participated in the screening procedures. From those 2512 (random = 958; high risk = 1554) were further evaluated with diagnostic instruments. The prevalence of any child mental disorder in the random strata and high-risk strata was 19.9% and 29.7%. The oversampling procedure was successful in selecting a sample with higher family rates of any mental disorders according to diagnostic instruments. Interrater reliability (kappa) for the main diagnostic instrument range from 0.72 (hyperkinetic disorders) to 0.84 (emotional disorders). The screening instrument was successful in selecting a sub-sample with "high risk" for developing mental disorders. This study may help advance the field of child psychiatry and ultimately provide useful clinical information.

  6. Measuring Total Flux of Organic Vapors From the Unsaturated Zone Under Natural Conditions: Design, Laboratory and Field Testing of a Flux Chamber Device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, F. D.; Choi, J.; Smith, J. A.

    2002-05-01

    A simple, easy-to-use, and inexpensive device for measuring VOC flux under natural conditions was designed and tested both in a controlled laboratory environment and in a natural field setting. The chamber consists of a stainless-steel right circular cylinder open on one end with a flexible, impermeable membrane allowing for chamber expansion and contraction. Air is pumped from inside the chamber through activated carbon traps and returned to the chamber maintaining a net zero pressure gradient from the inside to the outside of the chamber. The traps are analyzed using thermal desorption/GC-FID and the mass of contaminant is divided by the product of the sampled area and sample time to give VOC flux measured by the chamber. Design parameters for the chamber were selected using continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR)-equation based modeling under step, sinusoidal and transport-model simulation flux inputs. Laboratory testing of the flux chamber under both diffusion and advection dominated conditions was performed in a device constructed to simulate unsaturated zone transport. Aqueous trichloroethene (TCE) solution was pumped through the bottom of a steel drum inside which 50-cm of fine sand was suspended. For diffusion-dominated transport experiments, the chamber was installed in the sand at the top of the simulator and operated in the same manner as would occur in the field. The flux measurement of the chamber was then compared to flux prediction based on measured linear concentration data from the simulator and Fick's law. Advective transport is initiated in the vadose zone simulator by flowing humidified, pressurized air into an input port in the bottom of the simulator below the suspended porous media. Soil-gas velocity is calculated by dividing the airflow input by the surface area of the simulator. Flux was measured with the chamber and compared to flux predicted using airflow and concentration data from the simulator. Results from both the diffusion-only and

  7. Robust risk prediction with biomarkers under two-phase stratified cohort design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Rebecca; Yang, Ming; Zheng, Yingye; Jensen, Majken K; Cai, Tianxi

    2016-12-01

    Identification of novel biomarkers for risk prediction is important for disease prevention and optimal treatment selection. However, studies aiming to discover which biomarkers are useful for risk prediction often require the use of stored biological samples from large assembled cohorts, and thus the depletion of a finite and precious resource. To make efficient use of such stored samples, two-phase sampling designs are often adopted as resource-efficient sampling strategies, especially when the outcome of interest is rare. Existing methods for analyzing data from two-phase studies focus primarily on single marker analysis or fitting the Cox regression model to combine information from multiple markers. However, the Cox model may not fit the data well. Under model misspecification, the composite score derived from the Cox model may not perform well in predicting the outcome. Under a general two-phase stratified cohort sampling design, we present a novel approach to combining multiple markers to optimize prediction by fitting a flexible nonparametric transformation model. Using inverse probability weighting to account for the outcome-dependent sampling, we propose to estimate the model parameters by maximizing an objective function which can be interpreted as a weighted C-statistic for survival outcomes. Regardless of model adequacy, the proposed procedure yields a sensible composite risk score for prediction. A major obstacle for making inference under two phase studies is due to the correlation induced by the finite population sampling, which prevents standard inference procedures such as the bootstrap from being used for variance estimation. We propose a resampling procedure to derive valid confidence intervals for the model parameters and the C-statistic accuracy measure. We illustrate the new methods with simulation studies and an analysis of a two-phase study of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) subtypes for predicting the risk of coronary heart

  8. Six Sigma Quality Management System and Design of Risk-based Statistical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, James O; Westgard, Sten A

    2017-03-01

    Six sigma concepts provide a quality management system (QMS) with many useful tools for managing quality in medical laboratories. This Six Sigma QMS is driven by the quality required for the intended use of a test. The most useful form for this quality requirement is the allowable total error. Calculation of a sigma-metric provides the best predictor of risk for an analytical examination process, as well as a design parameter for selecting the statistical quality control (SQC) procedure necessary to detect medically important errors. Simple point estimates of sigma at medical decision concentrations are sufficient for laboratory applications.

  9. Evaluation and Zone Mapping of Forest Fire Risk Grade in Dapingzhang,Dongguan%东莞大屏嶂森林火险等级评价与区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严朝东; 林育述; 陈轩阳; 胡科; 林观土

    2014-01-01

    针对广东省东莞大屏嶂森林公园的森林资源环境特点,选取植被类型、坡度、坡向、海拔、居民区距离、道路距离6个火险影响因子,利用GI S空间分析功能对大屏嶂森林公园进行森林火险等级的评价与区划。区划方案表明,该区可以划分为无、低、中、高和极高5个等级火险区,其面积分别占研究区的1.67%、2.19%、33.16%、55.3%和7.68%。森林火险等级的空间分异较明显,极高火险主要出现在西北部,中部和北部火险等级较高,东部与南部火险稍低。森林火险较高等级主要受植被类型、坡向及海拔这3个因素影响。%According to the traits of forest resource environment in Dapingzhang forest park,spatial analysis function of GIS was applied to forest fire risk grade evaluation and zone mapping in this paper.Six factors including stand,slope,aspect,altitude,distance to settlement and to road,were chosen as forest fire risk factors.The re-sults indicated that Dapingzhang forest park could be divided into five fire risk zones.The area of no,low,moder-ate,high and extremely high fire risk zone accounted for 1.67%,2.19%,33.16%,55.3%and 7.68%,respec-tively.The spatial distribution differences of forest fire risk zones were obvious.The extremely high fire risk mainly appeared in the northwestern part,while moderate and high fire risk spread through the central and northern part, and the low fire risk mainly located on the eastern and southern part.Stand,aspect and altitude were principal fac-tors that affected forest fire risk.

  10. Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  11. Characterizing Organic-Liquid Sources in the Vadose Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusseau, M. L.; Truex, M.; Mainhagu, J.; Morrison, C.; Oostrom, M.; Carroll, K. C.; Yeh, T.

    2010-12-01

    There are two primary concerns associated with sites that contain contaminant sources located in the vadose zone. First, discharge of contaminant vapor from the vadose-zone source may impact the underlying groundwater. This could contribute to overall risk posed by the site, and delay attainment of groundwater cleanup goals. Second, contaminant vapor from the vadose-zone source may migrate to the land surface and transfer into buildings, thereby causing vapor intrusion. The decision to require remediation of a vadose-zone source zone is typically based on assessing the potential impact of the vadose-zone source on groundwater or vapor intrusion. Concomitantly, setting appropriate vadose-zone remediation goals once the decision is made, as well as evaluating attainment of these remediation goals, requires evaluating these persistent sources in terms of their impact on groundwater remediation goals or vapor-intrusion concerns. These issues are of particular relevance for soil-vapor extraction (SVE), which is the presumptive remedy for vadose-zone systems contaminated by chlorinated solvents. Characterizing the impact of vadose-zone contaminant sources on groundwater or vapor intrusion requires determination of the contaminant mass discharge from the source. A vadose-zone characterization technology is presented that can provide direct measures of vapor-phase contaminant mass discharge, characterize mass-transfer conditions, and provide a higher resolution characterization of the source distribution. This technology is a combination of two recently developed methods (vapor-phase mass discharge method and vapor-phase tomography) and two existing methods (pneumatic tomography and tracer tomography). The technology is designed to be used in a tiered approach that is sensitive to associated cost-benefits, and is responsive to specific requirements of the site. Example applications are presented.

  12. Evidence Report, Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumbado, Jennifer Rochlis; Billman, Dorrit; Feary, Mike; Green, Collin

    2011-01-01

    The success of future exploration missions depends, even more than today, on effective integration of humans and technology (automation and robotics). This will not emerge by chance, but by design. Both crew and ground personnel will need to do more demanding tasks in more difficult conditions, amplifying the costs of poor design and the benefits of good design. This report has looked at the importance of good design and the risks from poor design from several perspectives: 1) If the relevant functions needed for a mission are not identified, then designs of technology and its use by humans are unlikely to be effective: critical functions will be missing and irrelevant functions will mislead or drain attention. 2) If functions are not distributed effectively among the (multiple) participating humans and automation/robotic systems, later design choices can do little to repair this: additional unnecessary coordination work may be introduced, workload may be redistributed to create problems, limited human attentional resources may be wasted, and the capabilities of both humans and technology underused. 3) If the design does not promote accurate understanding of the capabilities of the technology, the operators will not use the technology effectively: the system may be switched off in conditions where it would be effective, or used for tasks or in contexts where its effectiveness may be very limited. 4) If an ineffective interaction design is implemented and put into use, a wide range of problems can ensue. Many involve lack of transparency into the system: operators may be unable or find it very difficult to determine a) the current state and changes of state of the automation or robot, b) the current state and changes in state of the system being controlled or acted on, and c) what actions by human or by system had what effects. 5) If the human interfaces for operation and control of robotic agents are not designed to accommodate the unique points of view and

  13. Optimisation for the separation of the oligosaccharide, sodium Pentosan Polysulfate by reverse polarity capillary zone electrophoresis using a central composite design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochazka, S; Mulholland, M; Lloyd-Jones, A

    2003-02-01

    The separation by reverse polarity capillary zone electrophoresis of the therapeutically developed sodium salt of Pentosan Polysulfate was optimised through the analysis of response surface methodologies, modeled using a central composite design. The optimisation investigated injection pressure, injection time and voltage and the effect of the conditions on retention times, peak areas, separation efficiency and the method sensitivity. The overall goal was to develop the most sensitive results with no decrease in separation efficiency. The following results were obtained: (1) retention times generally decreased as injection pressure, injection time and voltage increased, injection time having the least effect; (2) as expected peak areas increased as injection pressure and injection time increased but decreased as voltage increased; (3) separation efficiencies generally increased as injection pressure and injection time decreased, with voltage having almost no effect. For the optimum condition, the sample was introduced at the inlet vial at the cathode hydrodynamically, at optimal setting of 44 s at 35 mbar. The optimal voltage was -20 kV. In comparison with other methods, the optimum showed increased sensitivity, resolution and separation efficiency. Repeatability studies were performed on the optimum parameter conditions. Relative standard deviation values obtained were between 0.9 and 5.4%.

  14. "Medical high risk" designation is not associated with survival after carotid artery stenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuo, Theodore H; Goodney, Philip P; Powell, Richard J; Cronenwett, Jack L

    2008-02-01

    While medical high risk (MHR) has been proposed as an indication for carotid artery stenting (CAS), the impact of MHR on long-term survival and stroke after CAS has not been described. A retrospective chart review of CAS procedures at our institution was performed. One hundred seventy-nine consecutive patients who underwent 196 CAS procedures were classified by MHR status based on cardiac, pulmonary, and renal criteria routinely used in high-risk clinical trials. Survival and stroke rates were compared after 90 CAS procedures in MHR patients vs 106 CAS procedures in normal risk patients. Survival results were also compared with 365 contemporaneous carotid endarterectomy (CEA) procedures in 346 patients. The mean age of CAS patients was 72 years, with 87% having a smoking history, 85% hypertension, 38% diabetes, 39% symptomatic, and 74% documented coronary artery disease. Mean follow-up was 23 months. Recurrent stenosis after CEA comprised 21% of all CAS procedures. During the 30-day post-procedure period, there were five minor strokes, one major stroke, and one death, for a combined stroke/death rate of 3.6%. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated mortality of 5% at 1 year and 21% at 3 years for the entire cohort. Cox regression analysis found that MHR designation was not associated with increased mortality or an increase in a composite end point of death or stroke. MHR patients had mortality of 4% at 1 year and 22% at 3 years. Normal risk patients had mortality of 6% at 1 year and 20% at 3 years. Preoperative age over 80 years old, low density lipoprotein (LDL) > or =160 mg/dL, and serum creatinine > or =1.5 mg/dL conferred statistically significant risk for death (Hazard ratios: 2.9, 4.3, and 2.4, respectively). As a point of comparison, a contemporaneous group of CEA patients were analyzed similarly. After adjusting for age over 80 years old and serum creatinine > or =1.5 mg/dL, there was no survival difference between MHR patients undergoing CAS or CEA. The

  15. Mars Sample Return: A Low Cost, Direct and Minimum Risk Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wercinski, Paul F.; Arnold, James O. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Current NASA strategy for Mars exploration is seeking simpler, cheaper, and more reliable missions to Mars. This requirement has left virtually all previously proposed Mars Sample Return (MSR) missions as economically untenable. The MSR mission proposed in this paper represents an economical, back-to-basics approach of mission design by leveraging interplanetary trajectory design and limited surface science for shorter mission duration, advanced propulsion and thermal protection systems for mass reduction and simplified mission operations for high reliability. As a result, the proposed concept, called the Fast, Mini, Direct Mars Sample Return (FMD-MSR) mission represents the cheapest and fastest class of missions that could return a 0.5 kg sample from the surface of Mars to Earth with a total mission duration of less than 1.5 Earth years. The constraints require an aggressive mission design that dictates the use of advanced storable liquid propulsion systems and advanced TPS materials to minimize aeroshell mass. The mission does not have the high risk operations of other MSR missions such as orbit rendezvous at Mars, propulsive insertion at Mars, rover operations on the surface, and sample transfer. This paper details the key mission elements for such a mission and presents a feasible and cost effective design.

  16. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated.

  17. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey B. Manbeck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess: (1 how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2 from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3 whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated.

  18. Design Concept of Human Interface System for Risk Monitoring for Proactive Trouble Prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Zhijian; Hashim, Muhammad [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); Lind, Morten [Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby (Djibouti); Tamayama, Kiyoshi; Okusa, Kyoichi [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tsuruga (Japan)

    2011-08-15

    A new concept is first proposed of distributed human interface system to integrate both operation and maintenance of nuclear power plant. Then, a method of constructing human interface system is introduced by integrating the plant knowledge database system based on Multilevel Flow Model (MFM) with the risk monitor to watch Defense-in Depth plant safety functions. The proposed concept is applied for a liquid metal fast reactor Monju and necessary R and D subjects are reviewed to realize human interface system for the maintenance work in Monju plant. Because of using high temperature liquid sodium as reactor coolant in Monju plant, the maintenance for Monju should utilize more automated equipment of remote control and robotics than that of light water reactor. It is necessary to design optimum task allocation between human and automated machine as the requisites for good communication design of human interface systems to support the collaboration work between workers at local workplace and the main control room. In this paper, the general issues are reviewed on how to configure the whole human interface system for helping proactive trouble prevention and risk evaluation on the basis of the presented target plant model before the concrete proposition of the hardware and software systems development to be used by both the staffs of operation and maintenance of NPP.

  19. Design of a family study among high-risk Caribbean Hispanics: the Northern Manhattan Family Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Ralph L; Sabala, Edison A; Rundek, Tanja; Juo, Suh-Hang Hank; Huang, Jinaping Sam; DiTullio, Marco; Homma, Shunichi; Almonte, Katihurka; Lithgow, Carlos García; Boden-Albala, Bernadette

    2007-01-01

    Stroke continues to kill disproportionately more Blacks and Hispanics than Whites in the United States. Racial/ethnic variations in the incidence of stroke and prevalence of stroke risk factors are probably explained by both genetic and environmental influences. Family studies can help identify genetic predisposition to stroke and potential stroke precursors. Few studies have evaluated the heritability of these stroke risk factors among non-White populations, and none have focused on Caribbean Hispanic populations. The aim of the Northern Manhattan Family Study (NOMAFS) is to investigate the gene-environment interaction of stroke risk factors among Caribbean Hispanics. The unique recruitment and methodologic approaches used in this study are relevant to the design and conduct of genetic aggregation studies to investigate complex genetic disorders in non-White populations. The aim of this paper is to describe the NOMAFS and report enrollment and characteristics of the participants. The NOMAFS will provide a data resource for the exploration of the genetic determinants of highly heritable stroke precursor phenotypes that are less complex than the stroke phenotype. Understanding the gene environment interaction is the critical next step toward the development of new and unique approaches to disease prevention and interventions.

  20. REDUCTION OF THE RISK IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT BY USING DESIGN-BUILD AS A MEANS FOR SUITABLE CONSTRUCTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Blaťák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Suitable and sustainable buildings have increased demands for design and for the transfer of design requirements to realization. That causes an increase of risk connected with the differences between planned and real parameters of the buildings. This article will outline the main theme comparison between DBB and DB projects concerning contractor’s risk management level. This comparative analysis explains, using the RIPRAN method, the hidden risks in each type of delivery method. The comparison identifies numerous contractual topics and risks included in both and gives deeper insight into risk management, both for the contracting party and also for public procurement. Applying risk analysis strategies and tools to the process will help decision-makers evaluate and select the suitable delivery method consistently and defensibly. This paper gives generic risk factors related to both project types. The results indicate risk factors with influence on the price, probability of occurrence and unfavourable impact on the project and help allocate risk level more properly in accordance with its high, middle or low probable impact. Public investment is a significant part of the public budget, the application of design-build can help with the reduction of corruption, and the public sector can benefit from the usage of DB projects to help eliminate the mistakes made by contracting authorities.

  1. Climate change risks and environmental design for resilient urban regeneration. Napoli Est pilot case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria D’Ambrosio

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper shows the results of the first phase of the research project “METROPOLIS - Methodologies and Technologies for integrated and sustainable adaptation and security of urban systems” developed by STRESS Scarl - High Technology District for Sustainable Building of the Campania Region. The project is aimed at the development of innovative strategies for a resilient urban system and design guidelines for appropriate choices of urban regeneration based on the assessment and mitigation of natural and man-made hazards. The paper describes the results concerning the definition of innovative methodologies for the knowledge and mapping of urban vulnerability to climate risks in the East Naples area. The cross-disciplinary and multi-scale approach integrates knowledge and technology from university and industrial partners to develop a decision support tool in the field of urban regeneration. The study of the impacts of extreme weather events, based on the simulation of climate change scenarios in the area of East Naples, includes the data management in a GIS environment from satellite remote sensing, direct surveys and simulation software, focusing on the environmental and technological performance of urban spaces and elements. The research results report risk scenarios for pluvial flood and heat waves hazards according to both climatic variables, both aggravating phenomena arising from the characteristics of urban settlements. The complex reading of the buildings-open spaces system and its response to climate change conditions has allowed to define the vulnerability of elements at risk, as well as adaptation and mitigation solutions to be implemented within urban regeneration interventions, identifying critical issues in relation to comfort and environmental risk conditions, consumption and efficient use of resources, compliance of the technological choices to specific requirements. 

  2. Method research of the risk zoning of thunder and lightning and its application over Anhui province%雷电灾害风险区划方法研究及其在安徽省的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程向阳; 谢五三; 王凯; 田红

    2012-01-01

    Under the guideline of the natural disaster system theory and assessment of natural disaster risk theory, using meteorological, geo-information, social and economic, thunder and lightning disaster data, combined with statistical method, disaster analysis and expert evaluation method, this paper aims at the method of the risk zoning of thunder and lightning, and establishes the quantitative relation between the assessment indexes and the risk zoning of thunder and lightning, based on the GIS platform, considering the disaster-inducing factors, environment of breeding disasters and hazard-bearing bodies. In this way, the paper formulates a relatively complete technology system of the risk zoning of thunder and lightning which deserves being popularized. The results of risk zoning in Anhui province show that the high risk of thunder and lighting is mainly located in cities with relatively higher economic level as well as the mountainous regions with higher altitude above the sea in the south of Anhui, while the low risk is mainly located in Huaibei area.%本文根据自然灾害系统理论和自然灾害风险评估理论,利用气象资料、地理信息数据、社会经济数据以及雷电灾情等数据,采用统计方法、灾情解析、专家打分等方法,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体方面,研究雷电灾害风险评估及区划方法,建立起评价指标与风险评估的定量关系,形成了较完整的雷电灾害风险评估及区划技术方法体系,具有很好的应用推广价值.对安徽省雷电灾害风险区划表明:高风险区主要位于经济水平较高的城市以及皖南山区高海拔地区,而低风险区主要位于淮北地区,与灾情验证情况吻合.

  3. Design of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; Colpe, Lisa J; Fullerton, Carol S; Gebler, Nancy; Naifeh, James A; Nock, Matthew K; Sampson, Nancy A; Schoenbaum, Michael; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2013-12-01

    The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multi-component epidemiological and neurobiological study designed to generate actionable evidence-based recommendations to reduce US Army suicides and increase basic knowledge about the determinants of suicidality. This report presents an overview of the designs of the six components of the Army STARRS. These include: an integrated analysis of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) designed to provide data on significant administrative predictors of suicides among the more than 1.6 million soldiers on active duty in 2004-2009; retrospective case-control studies of suicide attempts and fatalities; separate large-scale cross-sectional studies of new soldiers (i.e. those just beginning Basic Combat Training [BCT], who completed self-administered questionnaires [SAQs] and neurocognitive tests and provided blood samples) and soldiers exclusive of those in BCT (who completed SAQs); a pre-post deployment study of soldiers in three Brigade Combat Teams about to deploy to Afghanistan (who completed SAQs and provided blood samples) followed multiple times after returning from deployment; and a platform for following up Army STARRS participants who have returned to civilian life. Department of Defense/Army administrative data records are linked with SAQ data to examine prospective associations between self-reports and subsequent suicidality. The presentation closes with a discussion of the methodological advantages of cross-component coordination.

  4. The Hail Risk Zoning in Beijing Integrated with the Result of Its Loss Assessment%基于灾损评估的北京地区冰雹灾害风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    扈海波; 董鹏捷; 潘进军

    2011-01-01

    北京地区冰雹灾害风险区划主要依据“风险=概率×损失”的风险评估方程来计算风险值,不单纯依靠极端天气及气候事件的概率统计来做区划.首先利用灰色关联模型将北京地区近30年(1980-2009年)的冰雹灾害历史灾情资料进行灾损评估,评估结果以关联度归一化值及高斯变换值的方式分别用于时间序列分析及风险值估算.然后采用启发式分割算法(BG算法)对灾情数值进行时间序列分析,分析发现:1997年为不平稳结点,1997年前后的灾情数值从平稳性上应分属两个不同的时间序列.以1997年后的期望偏差作为变异系数.在灾损评估结果的基础上进行关联度归一化值在0~1范围内10个等间距的雹灾频次统计,依据统计结果计算北京地区冰雹灾害的平均风险值并用该值来制定冰雹风险等级标准.最后利用风险评估方程计算历次雹灾的风险值,结合风险等级标准完成北京地区冰雹灾害风险区划.区划结果显示:北京地区冰雹灾害的高风险区域主要分布在北京城市中心地区、密云县城及平谷区等几个人口稠密地区,而山区及山前迎风坡地带尽管降雹频次高,冰雹灾害风险却相对较少.%In order to recognize the meteorological disaster risk and assess it, the task of risk zoning is started exploring the possibility and severity influenced by the disaster, and the distribution of risk area zone is determined. The study is very important for the disaster avoidance or prevention, and is widely utilized in disaster emergency and meteorological service of supporting decision regulation. Normally the risk zoning depends upon the probability of extreme weather or climate events, such as the occurrence or probability of extreme meteorological elements. However, the risk of disaster focuses on the intensity or loss of the disaster besides the probability. Moreover, the index of hail risk zoning in Beijing is carried

  5. Impact of task design on task performance and injury risk: case study of a simulated drilling task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabdulkarim, Saad; Nussbaum, Maury A; Rashedi, Ehsan; Kim, Sunwook; Agnew, Michael; Gardner, Richard

    2016-08-31

    Existing evidence is limited regarding the influence of task design on performance and ergonomic risk, or the association between these two outcomes. In a controlled experiment, we constructed a mock fuselage to simulate a drilling task common in aircraft manufacturing, and examined the effect of three levels of workstation adjustability on performance as measured by productivity (e.g. fuselage completion time) and quality (e.g. fuselage defective holes), and ergonomic risk as quantified using two common methods (rapid upper limb assessment and the strain index). The primary finding was that both productivity and quality significantly improved with increased adjustability, yet this occurred only when that adjustability succeeded in reducing ergonomic risk. Supporting the inverse association between ergonomic risk and performance, the condition with highest adjustability created the lowest ergonomic risk and the best performance while there was not a substantial difference in ergonomic risk between the other two conditions, in which performance was also comparable. Practitioner Summary: Findings of this study supported a causal relationship between task design and both ergonomic risk and performance, and that ergonomic risk and performance are inversely associated. While future work is needed under more realistic conditions and a broader population, these results may be useful for task (re)design and to help cost-justify some ergonomic interventions.

  6. Designing of a risk assessment architecture to analyze potential risks from space weather to space and ground based assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattar, Erum

    2016-07-01

    Today's world is more vulnerable to space weather due to ever increased advance and costly space technology deployed in space and on ground. The space weather has a natural potential of posing harmful effects on space and ground based assets and on astronaut's life. This global challenge of space weather essentially demands global and regional preparedness to develop its situational awareness, analyzing risks and devise possible mitigation procedures. Considering risk mitigation architecture as inevitable for all scientific missions, this paper focuses to develop a risk assessment architecture for the space environment and to map its utility in identifying and analyzing potential risks to space and ground based assets from space weather in the South Asia region. Different risk assessment tools will be studied and would conclude in the most effective tool or strategy that may help to develop our capability in identifying, protecting and mitigating from the devastating effects of the space weather.

  7. Bridging the ';knowing and doing gap' in disaster risk reduction using design and design thinking; Ideation of concepts to improve hazard preparedness and response

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Manen, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The central goal of disaster risk reduction (DRR) is to reduce the impact and cost of natural hazards, in human, environmental and economic terms. There are numerous approaches that aim to achieve this but recent studies have shown a substantial gap between risk reduction actions taken at national and local levels. The traditional media of the scientist: education, outreach and increasingly community involvement, have been shown to raise levels of awareness and understanding but generate little change in terms of people's actions. This can be attributed to the differences in hazard perception and the relative weight placed on various aspects by scientists, authorities and communities as a result of non-hazard related factors. Therefore DRR, particularly when placed in its social, environmental and economic contexts, is an excellent example of what is termed a ';wicked problem': a problem that is difficult to formulate, where data to base decisions on are incomplete, the stakeholders are many and they hold contradicting views and the consequences of actions on the wider system are unclear. Although both science and design are geared towards problem solving, design, in drawing equally on art and engineering skills, does so in a fundamentally different but complementary way. Neither design nor science will solve the wicked problem that is DRR, but scientists, engineers and designers can improve the current state of disaster risk reduction by tackling aspects of underlying risk factors. This work will present concepts aimed at engaging people in novel and innovative ways with scientific results, with a specific focus on improving hazard preparedness and tangible, rather than abstract, ways of communicating hazard levels. Key considerations include the need to graft onto existing behaviours or innovate on existing products to simplify implementation, the possibility to co-create and connect through design and balancing desirability with technical and economical

  8. Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of peste des petits ruminants and contagious caprine pleuro-pneumonia in goats and sheep in the Southern Zone of Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbyuzi, Albano O; Komba, Erick V G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I; Kambarage, Dominic M

    2014-09-01

    A retrospective Sero-prevalence analysis was conducted in 2012 in order to find out whether contagious caprine pleuro-pneumonia (CCPP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) had already been introduced in Mtwara and Lindi regions of Southern Tanzania by 2007 and 2009. A total of 477 randomly selected sera from a bank of 3500 small ruminant samples that were collected as part of Rift Valley Fever surveillance of 2007 in Mtwara and Lindi regions were used in this study. Seroconversion was also evaluated in the 504 sera that were collected in 2009 as part of disease outbreak investigations in Tandahimba and Newala districts of Mtwara region. Seroconversions to CCPP and PPR were tested using competitive ELISA. In addition, information on different variables available in the existing surveillance forms gathered during sampling was used in the analysis of risk factors associated with seropositivity to the two diseases. The overall seroprevalence of CCPP for the sera of 2007 and 2009 in goats was 52.1% (n=447) and 35.5% (n=434) respectively; while in sheep the seroprevalence was 36.7% (n=30) and 22.9% (n=70) respectively. Seroconversion to PPR in goats and sheep was 28.7% (n=434) and 35.7% (n=70) respectively based on the sera of 2009. However, no antibodies were detected in the 2007 sera. Mixed infections were detected in 7.4% (n=434) of the goat and 12.9% (n=70) of sheep samples. Significant risk factors associated with seropositivity to CCPP in 2007 included introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=3.94; 95% CI 1.86-8.36; p<0.001) and raising animals in government farms (OR=4.92; 95% CI 1.57-15.76; p=0.02); whereas, seropositivity to CCPP in 2009 increased with introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=18.82; 95% CI 8.06-43.96; p<0.001), raising animals in government farms (OR=4.04; 95% CI 2.69-6.42; p<0.001) and raising animals in Newala district (OR=2.35; 95% CI 1.53-3.62; p<0.001). On the other hand, predictors for seropositivity to PPR in 2009 were introduction of

  9. Job Rotation Designed to Prevent Musculoskeletal Disorders and Control Risk in Manufacturing Industries: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, Rosimeire Simprini; Comper, Maria Luiza Caires; Sparer, Emily H.; Dennerlein, Jack T

    2017-01-01

    To better understand job rotation in the manufacturing industry, we completed a systematic review asking the following questions: 1) How do job-rotation programs impact work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and related risk control for these MSDs, as well as psychosocial factors? and 2) How best should the job rotation programs be designed? We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Business Source Premier, ISI Web of Knowledge, CINAHL, PsyINFO, Scopus, and SciELO databases for articles published in peer-reviewed journals. Eligible studies were examined by two independent reviewers for relevance (population of manufacturing workers, outcomes of musculoskeletal disease, physical factors, psychosocial factors, and strategies used in job-rotation implantation) and methodological quality rating. From 10,809 potential articles, 71 were read for full text analysis. Of the 14 studies included for data extraction, two were non-randomized control trial studies, one was a case-control study, and 11 were cross-sectional comparisons. Only one, with a case-control design, was scored with good methodological quality. Currently, weak evidence exists supporting job rotation as a strategy for the prevention and control of musculoskeletal disorders. Job rotation did not appear to reduce the exposure of physical risk factors; yet, there are positive correlations between job rotation and higher job satisfaction. Worker training has been described as a crucial component of a successful job-rotation program. The studies reported a range of parameters used to implement and measure job-rotation programs. More rigorous studies are needed to better understand the full impact of job rotation on production and health. PMID:27633235

  10. Case studies of geophysical imaging for road foundation design on soft soils and embankment risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteley, Robert J.; Kelly, Richard B.; Stewart, Simon B.

    2015-12-01

    Population growth along the coast of eastern Australia has increased demand for new and upgraded transport infrastructure within intervening coastal floodplains and steeper hinterland areas. This has created additional challenges for road foundation design. The floodplain areas in this region are underlain by considerable thicknesses of recently deposited alluvial and clayey marine sediments. If characterisation of these deposits is inadequate they can increase road construction costs and affect long-term road stability and serviceability. Case studies from a major coastal highway upgrade demonstrate how combining surface wave seismic and electrical geophysical imaging with conventional geotechnical testing enhances characterisation of these very soft and soft soils. The geophysical results also provide initial foundation design parameters such as void ratio and pre-consolidation pressure. A further significant risk issue for roads is potential embankment instability. This can occur during new road construction or when upgrades of existing embankments are required. Assessing the causes of instability of existing steeper embankments with drilling and probing is often difficult and costly due to access and safety problems. In these situations combinations of electrical, ground penetrating radar and P-wave seismic imaging technologies can rapidly provide information on the likely conditions below both the roadway and embankment. Case studies show the application of these technologies on two unstable road embankments. It is concluded that the application of both geophysical imaging and geotechnical testing is a cost-effective enhancement for site characterisation of soft soils and for risk assessment of potentially unstable embankments. This approach overcomes many of the current limitations of conventional methods of site investigation that provide point location data only. The incorporation of geophysics into a well crafted site investigation allows concentration on

  11. The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timmermans Daniëlle RM

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD. The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory. Methods A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS, a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120

  12. Multiphysics modelling, quantum chemistry and risk analysis for corrosion inhibitor design and lifetime prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, C D; Chandra, A; Vera, J; Sridhar, N

    2015-01-01

    Organic corrosion inhibitors can provide an effective means to extend the life of equipment in aggressive environments, decrease the environmental, economic, health and safety risks associated with corrosion failures and enable the use of low cost steels in place of corrosion resistant alloys. To guide the construction of advanced models for the design and optimization of the chemical composition of organic inhibitors, and to develop predictive tools for inhibitor performance as a function of alloy and environment, a multiphysics model has been constructed following Staehle's principles of "domains and microprocesses". The multiphysics framework provides a way for science-based modelling of the various phenomena that impact inhibitor efficiency, including chemical thermodynamics and speciation, oil/water partitioning, effect of the inhibitor on multiphase flow, surface adsorption and self-assembled monolayer formation, and the effect of the inhibitor on cathodic and anodic reaction pathways. The fundamental tools required to solve the resulting modelling from a first-principles perspective are also described. Quantification of uncertainty is significant to the development of lifetime prediction models, due to their application for risk management. We therefore also discuss how uncertainty analysis can be coupled with the first-principles approach laid out in this paper.

  13. Sampling design for the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite de; Silva, Pedro Luis do Nascimento; Szklo, Moyses; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina Caetano; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Bloch, Katia Vergetti

    2015-05-01

    The Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (ERICA) aims to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome in adolescents (12-17 years) enrolled in public and private schools of the 273 municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. The study population was stratified into 32 geographical strata (27 capitals and five sets with other municipalities in each macro-region of the country) and a sample of 1,251 schools was selected with probability proportional to size. In each school three combinations of shift (morning and afternoon) and grade were selected, and within each of these combinations, one class was selected. All eligible students in the selected classes were included in the study. The design sampling weights were calculated by the product of the reciprocals of the inclusion probabilities in each sampling stage, and were later calibrated considering the projections of the numbers of adolescents enrolled in schools located in the geographical strata by sex and age.

  14. Enhancing the Design Process for Complex Space Systems through Early Integration of Risk and Variable-Fidelity Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavris, Dimitri; Osburg, Jan

    2005-01-01

    An important enabler of the new national Vision for Space Exploration is the ability to rapidly and efficiently develop optimized concepts for the manifold future space missions that this effort calls for. The design of such complex systems requires a tight integration of all the engineering disciplines involved, in an environment that fosters interaction and collaboration. The research performed under this grant explored areas where the space systems design process can be enhanced: by integrating risk models into the early stages of the design process, and by including rapid-turnaround variable-fidelity tools for key disciplines. Enabling early assessment of mission risk will allow designers to perform trades between risk and design performance during the initial design space exploration. Entry into planetary atmospheres will require an increased emphasis of the critical disciplines of aero- and thermodynamics. This necessitates the pulling forward of EDL disciplinary expertise into the early stage of the design process. Radiation can have a large potential impact on overall mission designs, in particular for the planned nuclear-powered robotic missions under Project Prometheus and for long-duration manned missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond under Project Constellation. This requires that radiation and associated risk and hazards be assessed and mitigated at the earliest stages of the design process. Hence, RPS is another discipline needed to enhance the engineering competencies of conceptual design teams. Researchers collaborated closely with NASA experts in those disciplines, and in overall space systems design, at Langley Research Center and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This report documents the results of this initial effort.

  15. Application of predictive modelling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Lambert, Ronald J W

    2008-11-30

    In this communication, examples of applications of predictive microbiology in industrial contexts (i.e. Nestlé and Unilever) are presented which cover a range of applications in food safety from formulation and process design to consumer safety risk assessment. A tailor-made, private expert system, developed to support safe product/process design assessment is introduced as an example of how predictive models can be deployed for use by non-experts. Its use in conjunction with other tools and software available in the public domain is discussed. Specific applications of predictive microbiology techniques are presented relating to investigations of either growth or limits to growth with respect to product formulation or process conditions. An example of a probabilistic exposure assessment model for chilled food application is provided and its potential added value as a food safety management tool in an industrial context is weighed against its disadvantages. The role of predictive microbiology in the suite of tools available to food industry and some of its advantages and constraints are discussed.

  16. High-risk HPV presence in cervical specimens after a large loop excision of the cervical transformation zone: significance of newly detected hr-HPV genotypes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, M.A. van; Hamont, D. van; Bekkers, R.L.M.; Bulten, J.; Melchers, W.J.G.; Massuger, L.F.A.G.

    2007-01-01

    Large loop excision of the cervical transformation zone (LLETZ) is a well-established treatment for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. It has even been postulated that LLETZ is responsible for the elimination of the infectious agent, human papillomavirus (HPV), causing the lesion. Most s

  17. Advanced in-vessel retention design for next generation risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Kune Y.; Hwang, Il Soon [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    In the TMI-2 accident, approximately twenty (20) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. Early advanced light water reactor (LWR) designs assumed a lower head failure and incorporated various measures for ex-vessel accident mitigation. However,one of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100 deg C for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel. Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident/risk management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, this work presents the COrium Attack Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) that are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in-vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) are demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) reactor. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options. 15 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  18. Design of satisfaction output feedback controls for stochastic nonlinear systems under quadratic tracking risk-sensitive index

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘允刚; 张纪峰; 潘子刚

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, the design problem of satisfaction output feedback controls for stochastic nonlinear systems in strict feedback form under long-term tracking risk-sensitive index is investigated.The index function adopted here is of quadratic form usually encountered in practice, rather than of quartic one used to beg the essential difficulty on controller design and performance analysis of the closed-loop systems. For any given risk-sensitive parameter and desired index value, by using the integrator backstepping method, an output feedback control is constructively designed so that the closed-loop system is bounded in probability and the risk-sensitive index is upper bounded by the desired value.

  19. Risk assessment and design of prevention structures for enhanced tsunami disaster resilience (RAPSODI) - Euro-Japan collaboration

    OpenAIRE

    Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie; Y Nakamura; Arikawa, T.; Baykal, C.; Dogan, G.G.; Frauenfelder, Regula; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Guler, H.G.; Issler, Dieter; Kaiser, Gunilla; Kânoǧlu, U.; Kisacik, D.; Kortenhaus, A.; Løvholt, Finn; Maruyama, Y

    2016-01-01

    The 2011 Tōhoku event showed the massive destruction potential of tsunamis. The Euro-Japan “Risk assessment and design of prevention structures for enhanced tsunami disaster resilience (RAPSODI)” project aimed at using data from the event to evaluate tsunami mitigation strategies and to validate a framework for a quantitative tsunami mortality risk analysis. Coastal structures and mitigation strategies against tsunamis in Europe and Japan are compared. Failure mechanisms of coastal protection...

  20. Risk factors for Parkinson disease and the path analysis: One-to-one paired design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xianhua Tan

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Parkinson disease (PD) results from the reduce of neurotransmitter dopamine that transmits intracellular information in brain caused by some reasons, then leads to the dynamic disequilibrium with another neurotransmitter of acetylcholine which is relatively hyperactive. The main causes for PD are still unclear.OBJECTIVE: To screen out the risk factors of PD by means of univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and investigate the manner of actions between various factors and PD, so as to provide clues for the etiological study of PD.DESIGN: A paired design, Logistic regression analysis, path analysis.SETTING: Department of Scientific Research, Shandong Institute of Physical Education.PARTICIPANTS: Totally 157 PD patients were selected from the Department of Neurology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from November 2001 to October 2002. Inclusive criteria: PD was diagnosed according to the standard set by the Fourth National Seminar on Extrapyramidal Disease, Parkinsonian syndromes caused by stroke, carbon monoxide poisoning, encephalitis, drugs, etc. were excluded. Another 157 patients treated in the same department at the same period were selected as the control group, they were the same in sex as those in the patient group, within 3 years older or younger than those in the patient group,and without PD or other extrapyramidal diseases.social behavioral factor, environmental factor, genetic factor, life events, and previous disease; There were 12 main variables, including educational level, family history, mental labour, contact to insecticides, living place before school-age, smoking index, drinking index, tea-drinking index, history of brain trauma, history of SPSS 10.0 software were used in the conditional Logistic regression analysis and path analysis respectively.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The results of 12-variable univariate and multivariate analyses;Correlation between main variables and PD; Effects of the factors

  1. Model and zoning of forest fire risk in Heilongjiang province based on spatial Logistic%基于空间Logistic的黑龙江省林火风险模型与火险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓欧; 李亦秋; 冯仲科; 张冬有

    2012-01-01

    林火风险分析和森林火险区划是林火管理的重要组成部分.该文利用黑龙江省2000-2010年MODIS火烧迹地遥感数据集MCD45A1,在RS和GIS技术支持下构建林火空间分布与林火影响因子间的空间Logistic林火风险模型,在较大时间尺度和省域空间尺度上进行了森林火险区划研究,结果表明:通过空间采样构建的Logistic林火风险模型拟合效果很好,在显著性水平为0.05的情况下,通过模型系数的混合检验和Wald检验;相对运行特征(relative operating characteristic,ROC)值为0.753;经图层运算得到森林火险概率分布图,并将黑龙江省分为无火险区、低火险区、中火险区、高火险区和极高火险区.大兴安岭山地集中了极高火险区和高火险区;小兴安岭基本上属于高火险区和中火险区;东部山地小部分地区属于中火险区;其它地区属于低火险区和无火险区.黑龙江省森林火险的定量定位评价可为林火的预防、扑救以及防火指挥员进行防火规划和部署扑火力量、指导森林防火工作提供科学依据.%Forest fire risk analysis and forest fire risk zoning are important parts of the forest fire management. MODIS burn scars of remote sensing data sets MCD45A1 of Heilongjiang Province in 2000-2010 was used to build the spatial logistic forest fire risk model based on the spatial distribution of forest fire and forest fire impact factor by using geographic information system technology. Forest fire risk zoning study was conducted in a larger temporal scale and provincial spatial scale. Logistic model of forest fire risk built by spatial sampling between the distribution of forest fires and forest fire impact factor fit well (p<0.05). The relative operating characteristic value was 0.753 and the probability distribution map of forest fire was gotten by layer computing. Forest fire area of Heilongjiang province was divided into none,low,moderate,high,and extremely

  2. Risk stratification in acute heart failure: rationale and design of the STRATIFY and DECIDE studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sean P; Lindsell, Christopher J; Jenkins, Cathy A; Harrell, Frank E; Fermann, Gregory J; Miller, Karen F; Roll, Sue N; Sperling, Matthew I; Maron, David J; Naftilan, Allen J; McPherson, John A; Weintraub, Neal L; Sawyer, Douglas B; Storrow, Alan B

    2012-12-01

    A critical challenge for physicians facing patients presenting with signs and symptoms of acute heart failure (AHF) is how and where to best manage them. Currently, most patients evaluated for AHF are admitted to the hospital, yet not all warrant inpatient care. Up to 50% of admissions could be potentially avoided and many admitted patients could be discharged after a short period of observation and treatment. Methods for identifying patients that can be sent home early are lacking. Improving the physician's ability to identify and safely manage low-risk patients is essential to avoiding unnecessary use of hospital beds. Two studies (STRATIFY and DECIDE) have been funded by the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute with the goal of developing prediction rules to facilitate early decision making in AHF. Using prospectively gathered evaluation and treatment data from the acute setting (STRATIFY) and early inpatient stay (DECIDE), rules will be generated to predict risk for death and serious complications. Subsequent studies will be designed to test the external validity, utility, generalizability and cost-effectiveness of these prediction rules in different acute care environments representing racially and socioeconomically diverse patient populations. A major innovation is prediction of 5-day as well as 30-day outcomes, overcoming the limitation that 30-day outcomes are highly dependent on unpredictable, post-visit patient and provider behavior. A novel aspect of the proposed project is the use of a comprehensive cardiology review to correctly assign post-treatment outcomes to the acute presentation. Finally, a rigorous analysis plan has been developed to construct the prediction rules that will maximally extract both the statistical and clinical properties of every data element. Upon completion of this study we will subsequently externally test the prediction rules in a heterogeneous patient cohort. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Analytical model for the design of in situ horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) for the mitigation of chlorinated solvent vapors in the unsaturated zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verginelli, Iason; Capobianco, Oriana; Hartog, Niels; Baciocchi, Renato

    2017-02-01

    In this work we introduce a 1-D analytical solution that can be used for the design of horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) as a vapor mitigation system at sites contaminated by chlorinated solvents. The developed model incorporates a transient diffusion-dominated transport with a second-order reaction rate constant. Furthermore, the model accounts for the HPRB lifetime as a function of the oxidant consumption by reaction with upward vapors and its progressive dissolution and leaching by infiltrating water. Simulation results by this new model closely replicate previous lab-scale tests carried out on trichloroethylene (TCE) using a HPRB containing a mixture of potassium permanganate, water and sand. In view of field applications, design criteria, in terms of the minimum HPRB thickness required to attenuate vapors at acceptable risk-based levels and the expected HPRB lifetime, are determined from site-specific conditions such as vapor source concentration, water infiltration rate and HPRB mixture. The results clearly show the field-scale feasibility of this alternative vapor mitigation system for the treatment of chlorinated solvents. Depending on the oxidation kinetic of the target contaminant, a 1 m thick HPRB can ensure an attenuation of vapor concentrations of orders of magnitude up to 20 years, even for vapor source concentrations up to 10 g/m3. A demonstrative application for representative contaminated site conditions also shows the feasibility of this mitigation system from an economical point of view with capital costs potentially somewhat lower than those of other remediation options, such as soil vapor extraction systems. Overall, based on the experimental and theoretical evaluation thus far, field-scale tests are warranted to verify the potential and cost-effectiveness of HPRBs for vapor mitigation control under various conditions of application.

  4. A prospective cohort study of modifiable risk factors for gestational diabetes among Hispanic women: design and baseline characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasan-Taber, Lisa; Fortner, Renée Turzanski; Gollenberg, Audra; Buonnaccorsi, John; Dole, Nancy; Markenson, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    Women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at high risk for future diabetes, with rates of GDM consistently higher in Hispanic than non-Hispanic white women. Currently recognized risk factors for GDM are absent in up to half of affected women, and studies addressing modifiable risk factors for GDM in Hispanic women are sparse. Proyecto Buena Salud is an ongoing prospective cohort study of Hispanic women in Massachusetts designed to assess physical activity, psychosocial stress, and GDM risk. Bilingual interviewers recruit prenatal care patients early in pregnancy and assess activity, trait anxiety, perceived stress, and depressive symptoms using validated questionnaires. Baseline characteristics of the first 632 participants are presented. Women were predominantly young (69% Buena Salud represents a high-risk population of pregnant Hispanic women who are predominantly inactive, with higher levels of perceived stress, trait anxiety, and depressive symptoms compared to predominantly non-Hispanic white cohorts studied earlier. Therefore, Proyecto Buena Salud provides a unique opportunity to prospectively evaluate modifiable risk factors for GDM. Findings will inform prenatal behavioral intervention programs designed to address modifiable GDM risk factors.

  5. The 'Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes' (ASTRA study. Design, methods and participant characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Speakman

    Full Text Available Life expectancy for people diagnosed with HIV has improved dramatically however the number of new infections in the UK remains high. Understanding patterns of sexual behaviour among people living with diagnosed HIV, and the factors associated with having condom-less sex, is important for informing HIV prevention strategies and clinical care. In addition, in view of the current interest in a policy of early antiretroviral treatment (ART for all people diagnosed with HIV in the UK, it is of particular importance to assess whether ART use is associated with increased levels of condom-less sex. In this context the ASTRA study was designed to investigate current sexual activity, and attitudes to HIV transmission risk, in a large unselected sample of HIV-infected patients under care in the UK. The study also gathered background information on demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and disease-related characteristics, and physical and psychological symptoms, in order to identify other key factors impacting on HIV patients and the behaviours which underpin transmission. In this paper we describe the study rationale, design, methods, response rate and the demographic characteristics of the participants. People diagnosed with HIV infection attending 8 UK HIV out-patient clinics in 2011-2012 were invited to participate in the study. Those who agreed to participate completed a confidential, self-administered pen-and-paper questionnaire, and their latest CD4 count and viral load test results were recorded. During the study period, 5112 eligible patients were invited to take part in the study and 3258 completed questionnaires were obtained, representing a response rate of 64% of eligible patients. The study includes 2248 men who have sex with men (MSM, 373 heterosexual men and 637 women. Future results from ASTRA will be a key resource for understanding HIV transmission within the UK, targeting prevention efforts, and informing clinical care of individuals

  6. A design and study of the effects of selectivity on binary separation in a four-zone simulated moving bed for systems with linear isotherms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Cremasco

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The simulated moving bed (SMB is potentially an economical method for the separation and purification of natural products because it is a continuous processes and can achieve higher productivity, higher product recovery, and higher purity than batch chromatographic processes. Despite the advantages of SMB, one of the challenges is to specify its zone flow rates and switching time. In this case it is possible to use the standing wave analysis. In this method, in a binary system, when certain concentration waves are confined to specific zones, high product purity and yield can be assured. Appropriate zone flow rates, zone lengths and step time are chosen to achieve standing waves. In this study the effects of selectivity on yield, throughput, solvent consumption, port switching time, and product purity for a binary system are analyzed. The results show that for a given selectivity the maximum throughput decreases with increasing yield, while solvent consumption and port switching time increase with increasing yield. To achieve the same purity and yield, a system with higher selectivity has a higher throughput and lower solvent consumption.

  7. The uncomfortable comfort zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Renato Zacharias

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Whenever we achieve the satisfaction of our expectations and anxiety dissolves, we feel as if we were in a comfort zone – safe, complete, free from risks and in peace with ourselves. We might even have a little taste of heaven when we feel that we have fulfilled our duty. And as a fact, scientists are entitled to this kind of reward… but not for too long! In science, to enter a comfort zone can be as pleasant as dangerous. On one hand we may have a safe ground available to develop new modes of reasoning, protocols and theories. And on the other, we may stay stuck in a conventional but fragile ground, missing opportunities to reveal novel secrets or to address edge issues. ... The community of HD researchers seems to have entered a new comfort zone when nanostructures were found in HD. Nanostructures have been raised to the level of ultimate evidence doing away with Avogadro’s limit and leading homeopathy and HD research into mainstream science. We really should enjoy this moment and collect more information about the HD phenomenon. However, we must be wary to not fall into a trap.

  8. Designing and delivering clinical risk management education for graduate nurses: an Australian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnstone, Megan-Jane; Kanitsaki, Olga; Currie, Tracey; Smith, Enid; McGennisken, Chris

    2007-07-01

    In order to enhance their capabilities in clinical risk management (CRM) and to be integrated into safe and effective patient safety organisational processes and systems, neophyte graduate nurses need to be provided with pertinent information on CRM at the beginning of their employment. What and how such information should be given to new graduate nurses, however, remains open to question and curiously something that has not been the subject either of critique or systematic investigation in the nursing literature. This article reports the findings of the third and final cycle of a 12 month action research (AR) project that has sought to redress this oversight by developing, implementing and evaluating a CRM education program for neophyte graduate nurses. Conducted in the cultural context of regional Victoria, Australia, the design, implementation and evaluation of the package revealed that it was a useful resource, served the intended purpose of ensuring that neophyte graduate nurses were provided with pertinent information on CRM upon the commencement and during their graduate nurse year, and enabled graduate nurses to be facilitated to translate that information into their everyday practice.

  9. 安宁河、则木河构造区近期强震危险性的概率估计%Probabilistic Estimate of Strong Earthquake Risk in the Anninghe-Zemuhe Tectonic Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    路鹏; 袁一凡; 袁洪克; 刘学领; 于晓辉; 段玉石

    2012-01-01

    After the 2008 Wenchuan magnitude 8. 0 earthquake, Anninghe-Zemuhe fracture region, which has been a frequent strong earthquake zone in history, located in the middle south of the South-North Seismic Zone, has received extensive attention. Based on analyzing the unique characters of strong earthquake activity in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone, this paper calculated the cumulative probability and conditional probability of strong earthquake above magnitude 6. 5 in the next decade in this area, by using the Weibull probability seismic risk estimation method. Moreover, by integrating previous studies on the Coulomb stress changes in peripheral faults and the potential focal zone caused by the Wenchuan earthquake rupture, we proposed a comprehensive judgment on the strong earthquake risk in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone. The results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake would inevitably lead to middle and strong earthquakes above magnitude 5. 0 earthquake activates gradually in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone. According to the Weibull probability model, the probability of occurring strong earthquake above magnitude 6. 5 before 2021 in this area is as high as 0. 93, and the conditional probability is 0. 32. Therefore, in this tectonic zone, especially in the Mianning-Xichang region within this zone, the possibility of strong earthquake in the next decade is relatively high.%2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震发生后,作为历史强震多发地段——南北地震带中南段的安宁河、则木河构造区强地震危险性受到广泛关注.本文在分析安宁河、则木河构造区强震活动特点的基础上,利用地震危险性韦布尔概率估计方法,对该区未来10年内发生6.5级以上强震的累计概率和条件概率进行了计算,并结合前人针对汶川地震破裂对周边断层产生的库仑应力变化及潜在震源区判定等研究结果,对该区强地震危险性进行了综合判断.结果表明,汶川8.0级地震发生后,安

  10. Comparing Growth Trajectories of Risk Behaviors from Late Adolescence through Young Adulthood: An Accelerated Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S.; Croudace, Tim J.; Brown, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of…

  11. Comparing Growth Trajectories of Risk Behaviors from Late Adolescence through Young Adulthood: An Accelerated Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S.; Croudace, Tim J.; Brown, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of…

  12. A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

  13. Enjoyment and Perceived Value of Two School-Based Interventions Designed To Reduce Risk Factors for Eating Disorders in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Tracey D.; Davidson, Susan; O'Dea, Jennifer A.

    2002-01-01

    Investigates the enjoyment and perceived value associated with two interventions designed to reduce risk factors for eating disorders in young adolescents, a media literacy program or a self-esteem program. Overall, the media literacy program was the intervention preferred by students. Students in both interventions said that they had learnt to…

  14. Legionellosis prevention in building water and HVAC systems a practical guide for design, operation and maintenance to minimize the risk

    CERN Document Server

    Joppolo, Cesare Maria; Pitera, Luca Alberto; Angermann, Jean Pierre; Izard, Mark

    2013-01-01

    This Guidebook is a practical guide for design, operation and maintenance to minimize the risk of legionellosis in building water and HVAC systmes. It is devided into several themes such as: Air conditioning of the air (by water – humidification), Production of hot water for washing (fundamentally but not only hot water for washing) and Evaporative cooling tower.

  15. Enjoyment and Perceived Value of Two School-Based Interventions Designed To Reduce Risk Factors for Eating Disorders in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Tracey D.; Davidson, Susan; O'Dea, Jennifer A.

    2002-01-01

    Investigates the enjoyment and perceived value associated with two interventions designed to reduce risk factors for eating disorders in young adolescents, a media literacy program or a self-esteem program. Overall, the media literacy program was the intervention preferred by students. Students in both interventions said that they had learnt to…

  16. Distribution Characteristics and Risk Zoning of Hail Disaster of Apple Fruit Zone in Shaanxi Province%陕西苹果果区冰雹灾害分布特征及风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁轶; 王景红; 邸永强; 柏秦凤; 刘耀武

    2015-01-01

    Based on the hail observation data at weather stations from 1 961 -201 0 in Shaanxi province,tem-poral and spatial distribution characteristics of Hail in 38 apple fruit industry base countries is obtained.According to disaster risk forming mechanism,the assessment model of hail disaster for apple is constructed by using meteoro-logical data,basic geographic information data,socio-economic statistic data,and history disaster situation data and so on,according to the factors,such as the risk of disaster causing,the vulnerability of disaster body,and the ability of disaster prevention/reduction.The results are shown as follows.(1 )Hail in apple fruit area has the char-acteristics of more in North,mountain,and plateau area than in north,plain,and basin area;more in Yan’an and western Weibei fruit area than in eastern Weibei and western Guanzhong fruit area.There are fluctuations of hail occurrence in the 1 970 s and 1 980 s,and has been decreased from the 1 990 s.Hails occurred mostly in summer, and spring and autumn took second place.The diurnal variation of hail is single peak type,and the peak period of hail occurrence is from 1 4∶00 to 1 9∶00,with the frequency of 78.7%.(2)The severe risk regions mainly distrib-ute in the midwest of Yan’an,and the annual hail day is 2 d.The moderate risk regions mainly distribute in most areas of Hancheng,Heyang,Chengcheng,Pucheng,northern Fuping,Yaozhou,Chunhua,Binxian,Changwu, and northern part of these areas of non-severe risk regions;and the annual hail day is 1 ~2 d.The mild risk re-gions mainly distribute in the part of the northwest and eastern of Guanzhong,and the annual hail day is less than 1 d.%选取陕西省1961-2010年气象观测站冰雹观测数据,分析38个苹果基地县冰雹的时空分布特征,结合基础地理信息数据、社会经济统计数据和历史灾情等方面资料,基于自然灾害风险形成原理,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性以及防灾减灾能力3

  17. A Strategy to Integrate Probabilistic Risk Assessment into Design and Development Processes for Aerospace Based pon Mars Exploration Rover Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Jeffery; Paulos, Todd; Everline, Chester J.; Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2006-01-01

    This paper will discuss the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) effort and its involvement with related activities during the development of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER). The Rovers were launched 2003.June.10 (Spirit) and 2003.July.7 (Opportunity), and both have proven very successful. Although designed for a 90-day mission, the Rovers have been operating for over two earth years. This paper will review aspects of how the MER project integrated PRA into the design and development process. A companion paper (Development of the Mars Exploration Rover PRA) will describe the MER PRA and design changes from those results.

  18. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  19. Wearable technology to reduce sedentary behavior and CVD risk in older adults: Design of a randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa M. Krehbiel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Persons aged over 65 years account for over the vast majority of healthcare expenditures and deaths attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD. Accordingly, reducing CVD risk among older adults is an important public health priority. Structured physical activity (i.e. exercise is a well-documented method of decreasing CVD risk, but recent large-scale trials suggest that exercise alone is insufficient to reduce CVD events in high-risk populations of older adults. Thus adjuvant strategies appear necessary to reduce CVD risk. Accumulating evidence indicates that prolonged sedentary behavior (e.g. sitting has detrimental health effects that are independent of engagement in recommended levels of moderate-intensity exercise. Yet clinical trials in this area are lacking. We hypothesize that exercise, when combined with a novel technology based intervention specifically designed to reduce sedentary behavior will reduce CVD risk among sedentary older adults. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of combining a traditional, structured exercise intervention with an innovative intervention designed to decrease sedentary behavior and increase non-exercise physical activity (NEPA. This study will provide us with critical data necessary to design and implement a full-scale trial to test our central hypothesis. Participants aged ≥60 years with moderate to high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD events are randomly assigned to either the exercise and technology intervention (EX + NEPA or exercise alone (EX groups. Study dependent outcomes include changes in 1 daily activity patterns, 2 blood pressure, 3 exercise capacity, 4 waist circumference, and 5 circulating indices of cardiovascular function. This study will provide critical information for designing a fully-powered clinical trial, which could have health implications for the ever increasing population of older adults.

  20. Zoning Districts, Zoning, Published in 2002, Freelance.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Zoning Districts dataset, was produced all or in part from Hardcopy Maps information as of 2002. It is described as 'Zoning'. Data by this publisher are often...

  1. 基于 GIS 的福建闽江上游山洪灾害风险区划%GIS-based Risk Zoning of Flood Disasters in Upstream of the Minjiang River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    岳琦; 张林波; 刘成程; 张海博

    2015-01-01

    风险区划是山洪灾害防治工作中的重要环节,在理解山洪灾害地域分异规律的基础上进行区划,可为科学地分析山洪灾害致灾因子,为恰当地采取防治措施提供依据。以多年降水均值、土壤类型、坡度、高程、最长汇流路径长度、最长汇流路径比降、糙率、稳定下渗率、人口密度、地均GDP、土地利用状况和植被覆盖度12项因子,通过层次分析法与德尔菲法结合确定权重,进行空间叠加分析,完成闽江上游山洪灾害危险评价图、易损性图和山洪灾害风险区划图。并与1985—2013年近30年的灾害数据进行集成分析,比较山洪灾害风险区划与灾害发生情况,以期为不同风险地带的土地利用规划提供决策,为山洪易灾区居民提供风险信息。%For the prevention and treatment of flash flood disasters , the zoning of risk based on the master of their regional differentiation laws is an important link to scientifically analyze the disaster factors of the flood disasters and take appropriate preventive measures .Using 12 factors including multi-year averaged rainfall , soil type , slope , elevation, length of the longest convergence route , gradient of the longest convergence route , roughness , steady infiltration rate, population density, per unit area GDP, land use and vegetation coverage, and with a combination of AHP and Delphi methods adopted to determine the weights , the spatial overlay analysis was performed to complete flash flood hazard assessment map , vulnerability map and flood disaster risk zoning map at upper reaches of the Minjiang River .The maps were integrated with the disaster data in 1985-2013 to analyze and compare the flood disaster risk zoning and the actual disaster occurrence situations , so as to provide decision-making support for land use planning of different risk zones as well as the risk information to habitants in the disaster vulnerable zones .

  2. The Study of Risk Zoning of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Based on GIS in Chongqing%基于GIS技术的重庆市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梅勇; 唐云辉; 况星

    2011-01-01

    In order to quantitatively research the rainstorm and flood disaster risk and zoning in Chongqing, according to 1961-2008 meteorological data in Chongqing, integrating with natural, socio-economic and disaster prevention and reduction factors in each district, based on geography information system, methodology of flood disaster risk index and constructed model of rain and flood disaster risk assessment, the flood disaster risk indexes were calculated and risk zoning maps were worked out for every county of Chongqing by analyzing hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability of the counties. The results indicated that the possibility of rainstorm and flood risk was the biggest in Kaixian, Iiangping, Hechuang, Beibei, Rongchang, Yongchuan, Yubei and partial area of Tongliang, because the indexes of the expositions and the hazard of these areas were relatively higher. Whereas Nanchuang, Fengdu and partial areas of Shizhu, Qianjiang, Fuling, Qijiang had the least flood risk due to lesser disaster environmentally sensitive indexes and torrential rain frequency.%为了定量地研究分析重庆暴雨洪涝灾害风险和区划,利用重庆1961-2008年的气象观测资料,综合全市各区县的自然、社会经济与防灾抗灾等数据,利用GIS技术和自然灾害风险指数,构建暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价模型,对重庆市暴雨洪涝风险的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾抗灾能力多个因子定量分析,计算得到重庆市区县级暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险指数,并绘制了风险区划图.结果表明:重庆的开县、梁平、合川、北碚、荣昌、永川、渝北及铜梁部分地区的危险性和易损性指数较大,其暴雨洪涝灾害风险最大;南川、丰都与石柱、黔江、涪陵、綦江部分地区由于暴雨洪涝发生频率较低,孕灾环境敏感性指数较小,灾害风险最小.

  3. Environmental Design for Bridges in Protection Zone of Water Sources at Guangdong Section of Daqing-Guangzhou Expressway%大广高速公路粤境段水源保护区桥梁环保设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张建文; 曾鹏; 陈玉刚

    2013-01-01

    The D3 contract section line at Guangdong section of Daqing-Guangzhou Expressway crosses 24km long class Ⅱ protection zone of centralized drinking water sources.The environmental design for bridges in this project faces large range,big scale and big difficulty.In order to guarantee water quality in protection zone free of pollution during construction and operation of project,this paper expatiates setup of rainwater collecting system on decks of 33 bridges and double-layer bridge handrails for 10 important bridges in protection zone of water sources,and meanwhile takes other multiple environmental design measures so as to promote degree of safety of water quality in protection zone of water sources effectively.%大广高速公路粤境段D3合同段路线跨越24km长的集中式饮用水源2级保护区.该项目桥梁环保设计范围广、规模及难度大.为保证项目建设和运营期间水源保护区内水质不受污染,对水源保护区内33座桥梁设置桥面雨水收集系统,对其中10座重要桥梁设置双层桥梁护栏,同时采取了其他多种环保设计措施,使水源保护区内水质的安全度得到有效提升.

  4. Recommendations for the design of laboratory studies on non-target arthropods for risk assessment of genetically engineered plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeis, Jörg; Hellmich, Richard L; Candolfi, Marco P; Carstens, Keri; De Schrijver, Adinda; Gatehouse, Angharad M R; Herman, Rod A; Huesing, Joseph E; McLean, Morven A; Raybould, Alan; Shelton, Anthony M; Waggoner, Annabel

    2011-02-01

    This paper provides recommendations on experimental design for early-tier laboratory studies used in risk assessments to evaluate potential adverse impacts of arthropod-resistant genetically engineered (GE) plants on non-target arthropods (NTAs). While we rely heavily on the currently used proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) in this discussion, the concepts apply to other arthropod-active proteins. A risk may exist if the newly acquired trait of the GE plant has adverse effects on NTAs when they are exposed to the arthropod-active protein. Typically, the risk assessment follows a tiered approach that starts with laboratory studies under worst-case exposure conditions; such studies have a high ability to detect adverse effects on non-target species. Clear guidance on how such data are produced in laboratory studies assists the product developers and risk assessors. The studies should be reproducible and test clearly defined risk hypotheses. These properties contribute to the robustness of, and confidence in, environmental risk assessments for GE plants. Data from NTA studies, collected during the analysis phase of an environmental risk assessment, are critical to the outcome of the assessment and ultimately the decision taken by regulatory authorities on the release of a GE plant. Confidence in the results of early-tier laboratory studies is a precondition for the acceptance of data across regulatory jurisdictions and should encourage agencies to share useful information and thus avoid redundant testing.

  5. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  6. Rationale and design of INTERSTROKE: a global case-control study of risk factors for stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Donnell, M; Serpault, Damien Xavier; Diener, C

    2010-01-01

    Stroke is a major global health problem. It is the third leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability. INTERHEART, a global case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries (29,972 participants), identified nine modifiable risk factors that accounted for >90......% of population-attributable risk. However, traditional risk factors (e.g. hypertension, cholesterol) appear to exert contrasting risks for stroke compared with coronary heart disease, and the etiology of stroke is far more heterogeneous. In addition, our knowledge of risk factors for stroke in low......-income countries is inadequate, where a very large burden of stroke occurs. Accordingly, a similar epidemiological study is required for stroke, to inform effective population-based strategies to reduce the risk of stroke. Methods: INTERSTROKE is an international, multicenter case-control study. Cases are patients...

  7. Associations between active living-oriented zoning and no adult leisure-time physical activity in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leider, Julien; Chriqui, Jamie F; Thrun, Emily

    2017-02-01

    Nearly one-third of adults report no leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). Governmental and authoritative bodies recognize the role that community design through zoning code changes can play in enabling LTPA. This study examined the association between zoning and no adult LTPA in the U.S. This study was conducted between 2012 and 2016, with analyses occurring in 2015-2016. Zoning codes effective as of 2010 were compiled for jurisdictions located in the 495 most populous U.S. counties and were evaluated for pedestrian-oriented code reform zoning, 11 active living-oriented provisions (e.g., sidewalks, bike-pedestrian connectivity, mixed use, bike lanes) and a summated zoning scale (max=12). Individual-level LTPA data were obtained from the 2012 CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). County-aggregated, population-weighted zoning variables were constructed for linking to BRFSS. Log-log multivariate regressions (N=147,517 adults), controlling for individual and county characteristics and with robust standard errors clustered on county, were conducted to examine associations between zoning and no LTPA. Relative risks (RR) compared predicted lack of LTPA at 0% and 100% county-level population exposure to each zoning predictor. Zoning code reforms were associated with a 13% lower probability of no LTPA (RR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82-0.92). Except for crosswalks, all zoning provisions were associated with an 11-16% lower probability of no LTPA. Having all 12 zoning provisions was associated with a 22% lower probability of no LTPA (RR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.72-0.83). The results suggest that active living-oriented zoning is a policy lever available to communities seeking to reduce rates of no LTPA.

  8. Calculating Buffer Zones: A Guide for Applicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffer zones provide distance between the application block (i.e., edge of the treated field) and bystanders, in order to control pesticide exposure risk from soil fumigants. Distance requirements may be reduced by credits such as tarps.

  9. Comparison of the Atkins, Zone, Ornish, and LEARN diets for change in weight and related risk factors among overweight premenopausal women: the A TO Z Weight Loss Study: a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Christopher D; Kiazand, Alexandre; Alhassan, Sofiya; Kim, Soowon; Stafford, Randall S; Balise, Raymond R; Kraemer, Helena C; King, Abby C

    2007-03-07

    Popular diets, particularly those low in carbohydrates, have challenged current recommendations advising a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet for weight loss. Potential benefits and risks have not been tested adequately. To compare 4 weight-loss diets representing a spectrum of low to high carbohydrate intake for effects on weight loss and related metabolic variables. Twelve-month randomized trial conducted in the United States from February 2003 to October 2005 among 311 free-living, overweight/obese (body mass index, 27-40) nondiabetic, premenopausal women. Participants were randomly assigned to follow the Atkins (n = 77), Zone (n = 79), LEARN (n = 79), or Ornish (n = 76) diets and received weekly instruction for 2 months, then an additional 10-month follow-up. Weight loss at 12 months was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included lipid profile (low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglyceride levels), percentage of body fat, waist-hip ratio, fasting insulin and glucose levels, and blood pressure. Outcomes were assessed at months 0, 2, 6, and 12. The Tukey studentized range test was used to adjust for multiple testing. Weight loss was greater for women in the Atkins diet group compared with the other diet groups at 12 months, and mean 12-month weight loss was significantly different between the Atkins and Zone diets (PZone, -1.6 kg (95% CI, -2.8 to -0.4 kg), LEARN, -2.6 kg (-3.8 to -1.3 kg), and Ornish, -2.2 kg (-3.6 to -0.8 kg). Weight loss was not statistically different among the Zone, LEARN, and Ornish groups. At 12 months, secondary outcomes for the Atkins group were comparable with or more favorable than the other diet groups. In this study, premenopausal overweight and obese women assigned to follow the Atkins diet, which had the lowest carbohydrate intake, lost more weight at 12 months than women assigned to follow the Zone diet, and had experienced comparable or more favorable metabolic

  10. Exploring governance learning: How policymakers draw on evidence, experience and intuition in designing participatory flood risk planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newig, Jens; Kochskämper, Elisa; Challies, Edward; Jager, Nicolas W

    2016-01-01

    The importance of designing suitable participatory governance processes is generally acknowledged. However, less emphasis has been put on how decision-makers design such processes, and how they learn about doing so. While the policy learning literature has tended to focus on the substance of policy, little research is available on learning about the design of governance. Here, we explore different approaches to learning among German policymakers engaged in implementing the European Floods Directive. We draw on official planning documents and expert interviews with state-level policymakers to focus on learning about the procedural aspects of designing and conducting participatory flood risk management planning. Drawing on the policy learning and evidence-based governance literatures, we conceptualise six types of instrumental 'governance learning' according to sources of learning (endogenous and exogenous) and modes of learning (serial and parallel). We empirically apply this typology in the context of diverse participatory flood risk management planning processes currently unfolding across the German federal states. We find that during the first Floods Directive planning cycle, policymakers have tended to rely on prior experience in their own federal states with planning under the Water Framework Directive to inform the design and carrying out of participatory processes. In contrast, policymakers only sporadically look to experiences from other jurisdictions as a deliberate learning strategy. We argue that there is scope for more coordinated and systematic learning on designing effective governance, and that the latter might benefit from more openness to experimentation and learning on the part of policymakers.

  11. Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

  12. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon(®) SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1), the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1-Y9). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring.

  13. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iurian, Sonia; Turdean, Luana; Tomuta, Ioan

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal) delivery, containing Kollidon® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1), the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2), and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3) on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1–Y9). Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring.

  14. Safety issues in PV systems: Design choices for a secure fault detection and for preventing fire risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.C. Falvo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Photovoltaic systems have played a key role over the last decade in the evolution of the electricity sector. In terms of safety design, it’s important to consider that a PV plant constitutes a special system of generation, where the Direct Current (DC presence results in changes to the technical rules. Moreover, if certain electrical faults occur, the plant is a possible source of fire. Choices regarding the grounding of the generator and its protection devices are fundamental for a design that evaluates fire risk. The subject of the article is the analysis of the relation between electrical phenomena in PV systems and the fire risk related to ensuring appropriate fault detection by the electrical protection system. A description of a grid-connected PV system is followed firstly by a comparison of the design solutions provided by International Standards, and secondly by an analysis of electrical phenomena which may trigger a fire. A study of two existing PV systems, where electrical faults have resulted in fires, is then presented. The study highlights the importance of checking all possible failure modes in a PV system design phase, to assess fire risk in advance. Some guidelines for the mitigation of electrical faults that may result in a fire are finally provided.

  15. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and glycemic dysregulation: body mass index ≥85th percentile, fasting glucose ≥5.55 mmol l-1 (100 mg per 100 ml) and fasting insulin ≥180 pmol l-1 (30 μU ml-1). A series of pilot studies established the f...

  16. APPLICATION OF THE UNIFIED STATISTICAL MATERIAL DATABASE FOR DESIGN AND LIFE/RISK ASSESSMENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURE COMPONENTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    K.Fujiyama; T.Fujiwara; Y.Nakatani; K.Saito; A.Sakuma; Y.Akikuni; S.Hayashi; S.Matsumoto

    2004-01-01

    Statistical manipulation of material data was conducted for probabilistic life assessment or risk-based design and maintenance for high temperature components of power plants. To obtain the statistical distribution of material properties, dominant parameters affecting material properties are introduced into normalization of statistical variables. Those parameters are hardness, chemical composition, characteristic microstructural features and so on. Creep and fatigue properties are expressed by normalized parameters and the unified statistical distributions are obtained. These probability distribution functions show good coincidence statistically with the field database of steam turbine components. It was concluded that the unified statistical baseline approach is useful for the risk management of components in power plants.

  17. Outdoor Adventure Risk Management: Curriculum Design Principles from Industry and Educational Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Nevin; Robinson, David W.

    2005-01-01

    Leaders working in the outdoor adventure field are faced with making critical decisions that keep students, clients, or customers safe from the perils of risk-related activities while enabling them to benefit from these experiences. The knowledge and competency necessary to analyze and manage risk is integral to those providing outdoor adventure…

  18. A compositional personalization approach for designing personalized patient educational interventions for cardiovascular risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Selena; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza; Stewart, Sam

    2010-01-01

    Providing patients with personalized educational messages can improve self-management of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors. We present our compositional personalization approach that generates personalized educational material by dynamically selecting fine-grained information snippets, as per the patient profile, and then synthesizing them in a educational template to yield personalized patient education interventions. We apply our personalization approach in the PULSE system--Personalization Using Linkages of SCORE and behavior change readiness to web-based Education--that generates personalized patient education for CVD risk management. The PULSE framework involves the calculation of CVD risk assessment using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, the estimation of readiness to change using the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of intentional behavior change. The educational interventions were derived from evidence-based staged lifestyle modification materials and Canadian guidelines for CVD risk management.

  19. Capability-Driven Design of Business Service Ecosystem to Support Risk Governance in Regulatory Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Feltus

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based regulation and risk governance gain momentum in most sectorial ecosystems, should they be the finance, the healthcare or the telecommunications ecosystems. Although there is a profusion of tools to address this issue at the corporate level, worth is to note that no solution fulfils this function at the ecosystem level yet. Therefore, in this article, the Business Service Ecosystem (BSE metamodel is semantically extended, considering the Capability as a Service (CaaS theory, in order to raise the enterprise risk management from the enterprise level up to the ecosystem level. This extension allows defining a concrete ecosystem metamodel which is afterwards mapped with an information system risk management model to support risk governance at the ecosystem level. This mapping is illustrated and validated on the basis of an application case for the Luxembourgish financial sector applied to the most important concepts from the BSE: capability, resource, service and goal.

  20. TASK 2: QUENCH ZONE SIMULATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fusselman, Steve

    2015-09-30

    Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) has developed an innovative gasifier concept incorporating advanced technologies in ultra-dense phase dry feed system, rapid mix injector, and advanced component cooling to significantly improve gasifier performance, life, and cost compared to commercially available state-of-the-art systems. A key feature of the AR gasifier design is the transition from the gasifier outlet into the quench zone, where the raw syngas is cooled to ~ 400°C by injection and vaporization of atomized water. Earlier pilot plant testing revealed a propensity for the original gasifier outlet design to accumulate slag in the outlet, leading to erratic syngas flow from the outlet. Subsequent design modifications successfully resolved this issue in the pilot plant gasifier. In order to gain greater insight into the physical phenomena occurring within this zone, AR developed a cold flow simulation apparatus with Coanda Research & Development with a high degree of similitude to hot fire conditions with the pilot scale gasifier design, and capable of accommodating a scaled-down quench zone for a demonstration-scale gasifier. The objective of this task was to validate similitude of the cold flow simulation model by comparison of pilot-scale outlet design performance, and to assess demonstration scale gasifier design feasibility from testing of a scaled-down outlet design. Test results did exhibit a strong correspondence with the two pilot scale outlet designs, indicating credible similitude for the cold flow simulation device. Testing of the scaled-down outlet revealed important considerations in the design and operation of the demonstration scale gasifier, in particular pertaining to the relative momentum between the downcoming raw syngas and the sprayed quench water and associated impacts on flow patterns within the quench zone. This report describes key findings from the test program, including assessment of pilot plant configuration simulations relative to actual

  1. Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Mahmoud, Taysir G; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D; Costenbader, Karen H; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

    2014-09-01

    We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics, and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and the execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention.

  2. The Risk Zoning of Critical Meteorological Conditions of Corn Early Frost Disaster in Heilongjiang Province%黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚俊英; 于宏敏; 朱红蕊; 王春丽; 孙爽; 张金峰

    2012-01-01

    为了开展黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划技术研究,以期指导生产者合理安排作物品种布局,减轻初霜冻灾害造成的损失,以晚熟玉米为例,从确定初霜冻致灾临界气象条件出发,计算玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件在安全成熟前发生的概率,作为风险指数进行风险区划,基于GIS理论绘制风险区划图.结果表明:玉米初霜冻的风险区的分布具有2个明显特征:一是呈维向分布,自北向南随着维度的降低风险变小;二是随着地势的增高风险增大.大兴安岭、黑河在高纬度和高海拔的双重影响下,成为初霜冻风险最高的区域;而松嫩平原和三江平原的大部不仅海拔低,且处于维度相对较低的区域,因此是初霜冻的低风险区.通过对气候变暖前后风险区划图的分析发现,气候变暖使得玉米适宜种植区的面积扩大,一定程度上降低了玉米初霜冻灾害的风险.%In order to research the early frost disaster risk of corn in Heilongjiang Province for guiding the rational crop breed layout and reducing hazard of early frost disasters, the author took the corn as an example, from the identification of early frost disaster critical weather conditions, calculation of corn frost disaster critical meteorological conditions in the mature safety before the occurrence of the probability as a risk index risk division, drawing risk zoning map based on the theory of CIS. The results showed that corn frost risk distribution area had two distinct characteristics: one was the zonal distribution from north to south risk decreased along with latitude; the second was the risk increasing with the height increased. Daxing' anting, Heihe became the highest risk areas under the dual influence of high latitude and high elevation. Songnen plain and Sanjiang plain were the low risk areas because of the low altitude and relatively low latitude. Based on the climate warming and risk zoning

  3. Design and rationale of the comprehensive evaluation of risk factors in older patients with AMI (SILVER-AMI) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, John A; Geda, Mary; Krumholz, Harlan M; Lorenze, Nancy; Murphy, Terrence E; Allore, Heather G; Charpentier, Peter; Tsang, Sui W; Acampora, Denise; Tinetti, Mary E; Gill, Thomas M; Chaudhry, Sarwat I

    2014-11-05

    While older adults (age 75 and over) represent a large and growing proportion of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), they have traditionally been under-represented in cardiovascular studies. Although chronological age confers an increased risk for adverse outcomes, our current understanding of the heterogeneity of this risk is limited. The Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk Factors in Older Patients with AMI (SILVER-AMI) study was designed to address this gap in knowledge by evaluating risk factors (including geriatric impairments, such as muscle weakness and cognitive impairments) for hospital readmission, mortality, and health status decline among older adults hospitalized for AMI. SILVER-AMI is a prospective cohort study that is enrolling 3000 older adults hospitalized for AMI from a recruitment network of approximately 70 community and academic hospitals across the United States. Participants undergo a comprehensive in-hospital assessment that includes clinical characteristics, geriatric impairments, and health status measures. Detailed medical record abstraction complements the assessment with diagnostic study results, in-hospital procedures, and medications. Participants are subsequently followed for six months to determine hospital readmission, mortality, and health status decline. Multivariable regression will be used to develop risk models for these three outcomes. SILVER-AMI will fill critical gaps in our understanding of AMI in older patients. By incorporating geriatric impairments into our understanding of post-AMI outcomes, we aim to create a more personalized assessment of risk and identify potential targets for interventions. NCT01755052 .

  4. The ambient air dioxin levels and exposure risk in different functional zones of Shenyang%沈阳市环境空气不同功能区二噁英含量与暴露风险分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张丽华; 王恩德

    2013-01-01

    以沈阳市不同功能区为研究对象,进行不同功能区的二噁英含量与暴露风险分析.研究表明:沈阳市不同功能区的二噁英质量浓度大小顺序为工业区>居民区>文化区>商业区>公园>风景区;6个功能区均检测出多氯二苯并二噁英(PCDDs)、多氯二苯并呋喃(PCDFs)和多氯联苯(PCB)3种污染物,除风景区外,PCDFs所占比例最大,PCDDs居第二位,PCB所占的比例最小;毒性当量的计算结果表明,不同功能区的二噁英毒性当量浓度与其质量浓度大小顺序一致;呼吸暴露量计算结果表明,儿童的呼吸暴露量高于成人,说明儿童受到空气二噁英的呼吸暴露风险更大.%The ambient air dioxin levels and exposure risk in different functional zones of Shenyang was analyzed in this paper. The results showed that the content of dioxins in different functional zones followed the order of industrial area > residential area > cultural area > commercial area > park > scenic area. Polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated dibenzoparadioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) were detected in all functional zones. Except scenic area, PCDFs had the highest share of dioxins in Shenyang, and followed by PCDDs and PCB. Exposure risk of dioxins was quantitative analyzed by toxicity equivalency quantity (TEQ). Industrial area had the highest TEQ value, and the next followed the order of residential area> cultural area>commercial area> park>scenic area. The exposure inhalation amount of children was higher than that of adults, which implied that children had higher exposure risk of dioxin pollution in ambient air.

  5. Multivariate skew- t approach to the design of accumulation risk scenarios for the flooding hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Roth, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

    2010-10-01

    The multivariate version of the skew- t distribution provides a powerful analytical description of the joint behavior of multivariate processes. It enjoys valuable properties: from the aptitude to model skewed as well as leptokurtic datasets to the availability of moments and likelihood analytical expressions. Moreover, it offers a wide range of extremal dependence strength, allowing for upper and lower tail dependence. The idea underneath this work is to employ the multivariate skew- t distribution to provide an estimation of the joint probability of flood events in a multi-site multi-basin approach. This constitutes the basis for the design and evaluation of flood hazard scenarios for large areas in terms of their intensity, extension and frequency, i.e. those information required by civil protection agencies to put in action mitigation strategies and by insurance companies to price the flooding risk and to evaluate portfolios. Performances of the skew- t distribution and the corresponding t copula function, introduced to represent the state of the art for multivariate simulations, are discussed with reference to the Tanaro Basin, North-western Italy. To enhance the characteristics of the correlation structure, three nested and non-nested gauging stations are selected with contributing areas from 1500 to 8000 km 2. A dataset of 76 trivariate flood events is extracted from a mean daily discharges database available for the time period from January 1995 to December 2003. Applications include the generation of multivariate skew- t and t copula samples and models' comparison through the principle of minimum cross-entropy, here revised for the application to multivariate samples. Copula and skew- t based scenario return period estimations are provided for the November 1994 flood event, i.e. the worst on record in the 1801-2001 period. Results are encouraging: the skew- t distribution seems able to describe the joint behavior, being close to the observations. Marginal

  6. A Theory of Systemic Risk and Design of Prudential Bank Regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Acharya, Viral V

    2009-01-01

    Systemic risk is modeled as the endogenously chosen correlation of returns on assets held by banks. The limited liability of banks and the presence of a negative externality of one bank’s failure on the health of other banks give rise to a systemic risk-shifting incentive where all banks undertake correlated investments, thereby increasing economy-wide aggregate risk. Regulatory mechanisms such as bank closure policy and capital adequacy requirements that are commonly based only on a bank’s o...

  7. Selected approaches to determining the purpose of emergency planning zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobeš, Pavel; Baudišová, Barbora; Sluka, Vilém; Skřínský, Jan; Danihelka, Pavel; Dlabka, Jakub; Řeháček, Jakub

    2013-04-01

    One of the major accident hazards (hereinafter referred to as "MAH") tools to determine the range of effects of a major accident and consequent protection of the public is the determination of the emergency planning zone (hereinafter referred to as "zone"). In the Czech Republic, the determination of the zone is regulated by the Decree No. 103/2006 Coll. laying down the principles for determination of the emergency planning zone and the extent and manner of elaborating the external emergency plan (hereinafter referred to as "Decree") 3. The Decree is based on the principles of the IAEA-TECDOC-727 method - Manual for the Classification and Prioritization of Risks Due to Major Accidents in Process and Related Industries (hereinafter referred to as "method" and "manual", respectively)3. In the manual, it is pointed out that the method used is not suitable for making emergency plans for special situations (industrial activities in an inhabited area). Nonetheless, its principles and procedures are still used for such purposes in the Czech Republic. The expert scientific community dealing with MAH issues in the Czech Republic, however, realizes that the procedure of the zone boundary delineation should be modified to reflect up-to-date knowledge in protection of the public and its enhancement. Therefore, the OPTIZON Project (Optimization of the Emergency Planning Zone Designation and Elaboration of Emergency Plans Based on Threatening Effects of Dangerous Chemical Substances at Operational Accidents with Respect to Inhabitant Protection Enhancement) was developed and approved for the Program of Security Research of the Czech Republic 2010 - 2015 (BV II/2-VS). One of the main project's objectives is to define clearly the purpose of the zone because at present it is not quite apparent. From the general view, this step may seem insignificant or trivial, but the reverse is true. It represents one of the most important stages in seeking the approach to the zone designation as

  8. Addressing risk factors for child abuse among high risk pregnant women: design of a randomised controlled trial of the nurse family partnership in Dutch preventive health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mejdoubi Jamila

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low socio-economic status combined with other risk factors affects a person's physical and psychosocial health from childhood to adulthood. The societal impact of these problems is huge, and the consequences carry on into the next generation(s. Although several studies show these consequences, only a few actually intervene on these issues. In the United States, the Nurse Family Partnership focuses on high risk pregnant women and their children. The main goal of this program is primary prevention of child abuse. The Netherlands is the first country outside the United States allowed to translate and culturally adapt the Nurse Family Partnership into VoorZorg. The aim of the present study is to assess whether VoorZorg is as effective in the Netherland as in the United States. Methods The study consists of three partly overlapping phases. Phase 1 was the translation and cultural adaptation of Nurse Family Partnership and the design of a two-stage selection procedure. Phase 2 was a pilot study to examine the conditions for implementation. Phase 3 is the randomized controlled trial of VoorZorg compared to the care as usual. Primary outcome measures were smoking cessation during pregnancy and after birth, birth outcomes, child development, child abuse and domestic violence. The secondary outcome measure was the number of risk factors present. Discussion This study shows that the Nurse Family Partnership was successfully translated and culturally adapted into the Dutch health care system and that this program fulfills the needs of high-risk pregnant women. We hypothesize that this program will be effective in addressing risk factors that operate during pregnancy and childhood and compromise fetal and child development. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16131117

  9. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Zalk

    2011-06-01

    Conclusion: The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

  10. A preliminary analysis of climate change effect on long-term risk-based design of flood defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.; Vrijling, J. K.

    2012-04-01

    The lifetime of a flood defense usually lasts for decades or centuries. The future flood probabilistic distribution is not stationary due to climate change. Therefore in the long-term design of flood defense systems, the effect of climate change should be taken into account. The design height of Bengbu dike segment (about 10 km) along Huai River in China is studied as an example to explore the potential effects of climate change on long-term risk-based design. The economic-optimal design height of the dike is determined based on cost-benefit analysis. In this analysis the incremental investments in more safety are balanced with the reduction of the risk. Since climate change will result in the change of flood probability and hence the change of flooding risk, the optimal height might be shifted. To describe the possible future climate, the ensemble prediction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used in the study. River runoff series, which is required in deriving annual probability of peak runoff, is obtained by forcing a hydrological model with each GCM climate prediction. Then the probability of high water level in the river is derived based on the relationship between water level and peak runoff. The probability of flooding is assumed to equal to the exceedance probability of the high water level in the river. The possible future flood risk is calculated based on the flooding probability estimates, and is corresponding to each member of the GCMs ensemble. The result will provide information about the significance of potential effects of climate change on the long-term design of flood defense. With comparison to the baseline period, the shift of risk curve in future will be shown on the cost-benefit diagram as well as the change of economic optimal design dike height. As it is a preliminary analysis in this study a sensitivity analysis will be carried out. The sensitivity of use of GCMs ensemble, the damage value and the investment cost will be investigated.

  11. The importance of documentation, design and reuse in risk management for SPL

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes Lobato, Luanna; O'Leary, Pádraig; de Almeida, Eduardo Santana; de Lemos Meira, Silvio Romero

    2010-01-01

    peer-reviewed Software Product Lines (SPL) is a methodology focusing on systematic software reuse, multiple benefits have been reported as a result of this type of software development. However, establishing a SPL is not a simple task. It is a challenging activity raising many challenges for engineering and management. This research aims to manage the risks during SPL development to provide traceability among them. For this, it is important that the risks are documented and there is a comm...

  12. Stroke risk associated with balloon based catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: Rationale and design of the MACPAF Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schultheiss Heinz-Peter

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Catheter ablation of the pulmonary veins has become accepted as a standard therapeutic approach for symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF. However, there is some evidence for an ablation associated (silent stroke risk, lowering the hope to limit the stroke risk by restoration of rhythm over rate control in AF. The purpose of the prospective randomized single-center study "Mesh Ablator versus Cryoballoon Pulmonary Vein Ablation of Symptomatic Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation" (MACPAF is to compare the efficacy and safety of two balloon based pulmonary vein ablation systems in patients with symptomatic paroxysmal AF. Methods/Design Patients are randomized 1:1 for the Arctic Front® or the HD Mesh Ablator® catheter for left atrial catheter ablation (LACA. The predefined endpoints will be assessed by brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, neuro(psychological tests and a subcutaneously implanted reveal recorder for AF detection. According to statistics 108 patients will be enrolled. Discussion Findings from the MACPAF trial will help to balance the benefits and risks of LACA for symptomatic paroxysmal AF. Using serial brain MRIs might help to identify patients at risk for LACA-associated cerebral thromboembolism. Potential limitations of the study are the single-center design, the existence of a variety of LACA-catheters, the missing placebo-group and the impossibility to assess the primary endpoint in a blinded fashion. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT01061931

  13. PRA in Design: Increasing Confidence in Pre-Operational Assessments of Risks (Results of a Joint NASA/NRC Workshop)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngblood, Robert; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Siu, Nathan

    2010-01-01

    In late 2009, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly organized a workshop to discuss technical issues associated with application of risk assessments to early phases of system design. The workshop, which was coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory, involved invited presentations from a number of PRA experts in the aerospace and nuclear fields and subsequent discussion to address the following questions: (a) What technical issues limit decision-makers' confidence in PRA results, especially at a pre-operational phase of the system life cycle? (b) What is being done to address these issues'? (c) What more can be done ? The workshop resulted in participant observations and suggestions on several technical issues, including the pursuit of non-traditional approaches to risk assessment and the verification and validation of risk models. The workshop participants also identified several important non-technical issues, including risk communication with decision makers, and the integration of PRA into the overall design process.

  14. The Influence of the Designer on the Risk of Falling from Heights and of Exposure to Excessive Workloads on two Contruction Sites

    OpenAIRE

    Almén, Lena; Larsson, Tore J; Thunqvist, Eva-Lotta

    2012-01-01

    Workers on construction sites are exposed to an excessive risk of being injured at work. This study identifies occupational hazards on two construction sites – hazards that were related to the design of the building – and undertakes an analysis of the basis upon which related design decisions were made.Risks of falling from heights were related to the shape of the building. Risks related to an excessive workload were related to the weight of building products and possibilities to use equipmen...

  15. Conocimientos y prácticas sobre prevención y control del Aedes aegypti en una zona de riesgo Knowledges and practice on prevention and control of Aedes aegypti in a risk zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Hernández Quiñones

    2009-03-01

    of Aedes aegypti mosquito development, appearance of disease, and consequently epidemics. AIMS: to characterize social and environmental risk factors influencing in Aedes aegypti breeding places; the railroad station risk zone of Popular Council of Sancti Spíritus municipality, as well as to identify knowledges and practices of population related to d vector prevention and control. METHODS: cross-sectional descriptive study in a sample by stratified conglomerates, whose stratification variable were Family Physician consulting room (7, 13 and 25 of south health area selecting in a random way 305 surveyed. To study environmental situation, to identify knowledges in boys and girls from risk zone, ant to verify the intra- and peri-home environmental basic disinfection, we used quantitative and qualitative techniques of information gathering: focal group survey and observation-participant. RESULTS: there is a scarce knowledge related to prevention and control of Aedes aegypti, specifically in characterization of autofocus term, and vector communicable diseases. There are inappropriate practices in surveyed for mosquito control, particularly, in carrying out of actions to prevent the breeding places. CONCLUSIONS: in study risk zone there are environmental and social conditions allowing vector proliferation, denoting a low risk perception within population.

  16. Based on Arcgis ALaShan of ZuoQi Drought Risk Zoning%基于Arcgis的阿拉善左旗干旱风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨宗英; 常佩静; 陈晓峰; 王多民; 张斯莲

    2012-01-01

      应用模糊评价法建立数学模型;通过对属性数据库和图形数据库的操作得到霜冻灾害的孕灾背景、灾害危险性、承灾体易损性评价图层,经过图层叠加以及等级划分得到干旱灾害的风险评估及其区划。%  Application of fuzzy evaluation method to establish the mathematical model. Based on attribute database and graphic database operation get frost disastrous background, disaster risk, a hazard-affected body, the vulnerability assessment layer, after layer superposition and hierarchies get drought disaster risk assessment and regionalization.

  17. Diarrhea in Pre-Weaned Calves: Relative Risk Rates for Morbidity and Mortality in 13 Commercial Farms of Hot Arid Zone

    OpenAIRE

    M. A. Razzaque; Al-Mutawa, T; S.A. MOHAMMED

    2010-01-01

    Problem statement: In many hot arid countries, pregnant Holstein Friesian heifers are imported for herd replacement. The calves obtained from exotic cows are exposed to adverse climate in feedlot system resulting in very high morbidity and mortality rates. Diarrhea, dehydration and deaths are causing a major loss to the producers. This study examines the Risk Rates (RR) for morbidity and mortality in pre-weaned calves. Approach: Thirteen commercial dairy farms of small, me...

  18. Risk assessment and zone classification of solid fuel plants in accordance with AFS 2003:3. ATEX; Riskbedoemning och zonklassning av fastbraensleanlaeggningar i enlighet med AFS 2003:3. ATEX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haglund, Annika; Oeberg, AnnCharlott; Lindhe, Magnus [Inspecta AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-04-15

    Inspecta AB has composed a handbook in risk assessment and zone classification of solid fuel plants in accordance with the demands in AFS 2003:3 (regulations issued by Swedish Work Environment Authority). Several more or less severe accidents with dust explosions as the underlying cause occurs each year in Sweden. Many of these accidents occurs totally unexpected and perhaps even without understandings. 'It is only dust' AFS 2003:3 was made imperative 2006-07-01 and several plant owners are still uncertain of what procedures to make in order to fulfil the demands. The target group for the handbook is primarily plant owners but also people active in thermo-technical research and development. The prospect is to be an easy understandable handbook and for operators in the energy branch, on their own, independently of background knowledge, to be able to apply the method on a cost efficient way, and in that way fulfil the demands according to the so called explosion protection document. The number of unforeseen accidents with regard to explosive dust atmosphere will be decreased as a natural result of the implementation of the explosion protection documents. The handbook has a theory part with five complementary appendices. More than the other appendices, appendix B consist of a practical example which will take the reader step by step through how a risk assessment and zone classification of a solid fuel plant is made. Appendix B can be used separately, but the theory part should be read in order to understand the background for the dusts characteristics and other important factors.

  19. 浙江省雷电灾害易损性分析及风险区划%Vulnerability analysis and risk zoning of regional lightning disaster in Zhejiang province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李浩; 边学文

    2014-01-01

    根据2007-2011年浙江省雷电灾害事故调查资料、浙江省地闪监测资料,选取地闪密度、灾害频数、经济( GDP )损失模数、生命易损模数、雷灾经济损失、人员伤亡等作为浙江省各市雷电灾害易损性评估指标,对浙江省各市进行雷电灾害易损性综合评估,并结合 GIS 方法对浙江省进行了雷电灾害易损性风险区划,为有针对性做好防御雷电灾害规划提供科学依据。%Based on the lightning disaster investigation data,lightning monitoring data in Zhejiang province from 2007 to 2010,vulnerability analysis and risk zoning of lightning disaster in Zhejiang province are made in this pa-per.Indicators,such as cloud to ground lightning density,the frequency of lightning disaster,economic vulnerability module,vital vulnerability module,the loss of lightning disaster and the number of casualties,are selected as indexes for risk assessment of regional lightning disaster and comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of each city and county in Zhejiang province.Finally,the vulnerability zoning map is made in Zhejiang by means of GIS,which pro-vides scientific basis and valuable reference for the reasonable planning of lightning disaster prevention and reduc-tion in Zhejiang province.

  20. Risk assessment and experimental design in the development of a prolonged release drug delivery system with paliperidone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iurian S

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Sonia Iurian, Luana Turdean, Ioan Tomuta Department of Pharmaceutical Technology and Biopharmacy, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Iuliu Hatieganu, Cluj-Napoca, Romania Abstract: This study focuses on the development of a drug product based on a risk assessment-based approach, within the quality by design paradigm. A prolonged release system was proposed for paliperidone (Pal delivery, containing Kollidon® SR as an insoluble matrix agent and hydroxypropyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC, or sodium carboxymethyl cellulose as a hydrophilic polymer. The experimental part was preceded by the identification of potential sources of variability through Ishikawa diagrams, and failure mode and effects analysis was used to deliver the critical process parameters that were further optimized by design of experiments. A D-optimal design was used to investigate the effects of Kollidon SR ratio (X1, the type of hydrophilic polymer (X2, and the percentage of hydrophilic polymer (X3 on the percentages of dissolved Pal over 24 h (Y1–Y9. Effects expressed as regression coefficients and response surfaces were generated, along with a design space for the preparation of a target formulation in an experimental area with low error risk. The optimal formulation contained 27.62% Kollidon SR and 8.73% HPMC and achieved the prolonged release of Pal, with low burst effect, at ratios that were very close to the ones predicted by the model. Thus, the parameters with the highest impact on the final product quality were studied, and safe ranges were established for their variations. Finally, a risk mitigation and control strategy was proposed to assure the quality of the system, by constant process monitoring. Keywords: pharmaceutical development, quality by design, failure mode effects analysis, Ishikawa diagram, fish-bone diagram, hydrophilic matrix

  1. Cartographic Design in Flood Risk Mapping - A Challenge for Communication and Stakeholder Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, S.; Serrhini, K.; Dorner, W.

    2009-12-01

    In order to mitigate flood hazards and to minimise associated losses, technical protection measures have been additionally and increasingly supplemented by non-technical mitigation, i.e. land-use planning activities. This is commonly done by creating maps which indicate such areas by different cartographic symbols, such as colour, size, shape, and typography. Hazard and risk mapping is the accepted procedure when communicating potential threats to stakeholders, and is therefore required in the European Member States in order to meet the demands of the European Flood Risk Directive. However, available information is sparse concerning the impact of such maps on different stakeholders, i.e., specialists in flood risk management, politicians, and affected citizens. The lack of information stems from a traditional approach to map production which does not take into account specific end-user needs. In order to overcome this information shortage the current study used a circular approach such that feed-back mechanisms originating from different perception patterns of the end user would be considered. Different sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to different groups of test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented communication of cartographic information. Therefore, the method of eye tracking was applied using a video-oculography technique. This resulted in a suggestion for a map template which fulfils the requirement to serve as an efficient communication tool for specialists and practitioners in hazard and risk mapping as well as for laypersons. Taking the results of this study will enable public authorities who are responsible for flood mitigation to (1) improve their flood risk maps, (2) enhance flood risk awareness, and therefore (3) create more disaster-resilient communities.

  2. Ethical considerations for a better collaboration between architects and structural engineers: design of buildings with reinforced concrete frame systems in earthquake zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurol, Yonca

    2014-06-01

    Architects design building structures, although structural design is the profession of structural engineers. Thus, it is better for architects and structural engineers to collaborate starting from the initial phases of the architectural design. However, this is not very common because of the contradictory design processes and value systems held within the two professions. This article provides a platform upon which architects and structural engineers can resolve the value conflicts between them by analysing phases of the structural design of reinforced concrete frame systems in architecture, the criteria of the structural design for each phase and determining the conflicting values for each criterion. The results shown in the article demonstrate that the architectural design of structures is a complex process, which is based on contradictory values and value systems. Finally, the article suggests to architects and structural engineers to use Value Sensitive Design and to choose an appropriate team leader in order to resolve the unethical conflict between them and to avoid any unreasonable decision making.

  3. “最近发展区”法设计教学%On the Teaching Design with the Method of "Zone of ;Proximal Development"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭耀蔚

    2013-01-01

    Most senior high school students find physics difficult to learn, and the more they learn, the harder it is, so how to carry out physics teaching better has become a high priority issue of the moment. This paper makes a conclusion of the teaching method related to the physics optional module by combining the teaching experience and the theory of "zone of proximal development"proposed by Lev Vygotsky.%大部分高中生觉得物理难学,而且是越学越难,如何更好地开展物理教学成了教师教学的当务之急。本文根据维果斯基的“最近发展区”理论结合教学经验,对物理选修模块的教学进行了总结。

  4. Design of the BRISC study: a multicentre controlled clinical trial to optimize the communication of breast cancer risks in genetic counselling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij; van Asperen, Christi J; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Menko, Fred H; Timmermans, Daniëlle RM

    2008-01-01

    Background Understanding risks is considered to be crucial for informed decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception is a common finding in women with a family history of breast cancer attending genetic counseling. As yet, it is unclear how risks should best be communicated in clinical practice. This study protocol describes the design and methods of the BRISC (Breast cancer RISk Communication) study evaluating the effect of different formats of risk communication on the counsellee's risk perception, psychological well-being and decision-making regarding preventive options for breast cancer. Methods and design The BRISC study is designed as a pre-post-test controlled group intervention trial with repeated measurements using questionnaires. The intervention-an additional risk consultation-consists of one of 5 conditions that differ in the way counsellee's breast cancer risk is communicated: 1) lifetime risk in numerical format (natural frequencies, i.e. X out of 100), 2) lifetime risk in both numerical format and graphical format (population figures), 3) lifetime risk and age-related risk in numerical format, 4) lifetime risk and age-related risk in both numerical format and graphical format, and 5) lifetime risk in percentages. Condition 6 is the control condition in which no intervention is given (usual care). Participants are unaffected women with a family history of breast cancer attending one of three participating clinical genetic centres in the Netherlands. Discussion The BRISC study allows for an evaluation of the effects of different formats of communicating breast cancer risks to counsellees. The results can be used to optimize risk communication in order to improve informed decision-making among women with a family history of breast cancer. They may also be useful for risk communication in other health-related services. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14566836. PMID:18834503

  5. Design of the BRISC study: a multicentre controlled clinical trial to optimize the communication of breast cancer risks in genetic counselling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menko Fred H

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding risks is considered to be crucial for informed decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception is a common finding in women with a family history of breast cancer attending genetic counseling. As yet, it is unclear how risks should best be communicated in clinical practice. This study protocol describes the design and methods of the BRISC (Breast cancer RISk Communication study evaluating the effect of different formats of risk communication on the counsellee's risk perception, psychological well-being and decision-making regarding preventive options for breast cancer. Methods and design The BRISC study is designed as a pre-post-test controlled group intervention trial with repeated measurements using questionnaires. The intervention-an additional risk consultation-consists of one of 5 conditions that differ in the way counsellee's breast cancer risk is communicated: 1 lifetime risk in numerical format (natural frequencies, i.e. X out of 100, 2 lifetime risk in both numerical format and graphical format (population figures, 3 lifetime risk and age-related risk in numerical format, 4 lifetime risk and age-related risk in both numerical format and graphical format, and 5 lifetime risk in percentages. Condition 6 is the control condition in which no intervention is given (usual care. Participants are unaffected women with a family history of breast cancer attending one of three participating clinical genetic centres in the Netherlands. Discussion The BRISC study allows for an evaluation of the effects of different formats of communicating breast cancer risks to counsellees. The results can be used to optimize risk communication in order to improve informed decision-making among women with a family history of breast cancer. They may also be useful for risk communication in other health-related services. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14566836.

  6. QSAR model toward the rational design of new agrochemical fungicides with a defined resistance risk using substructural descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Kleandrova, Valeria V; Rojas-Vargas, Julio A

    2011-11-01

    The increasing resistance of several phytopathogenic fungal species to the existing agrochemical fungicides has alarmed to the worldwide scientific community. There is no available methodology to predict in an efficient way if a new fungicide will have resistance risk due to fungal species which cause considerable crop losses. In an attempt to overcome this problem, a multi-resistance risk QSAR model, based on substructural descriptors was developed from a heterogeneous database of compounds. The purpose of this model is the classification, design, and prediction of agrochemical fungicides according to resistance risk categories. The QSAR model classified correctly 85.11% of the fungicides and the 85.07% of the inactive compounds in the training series, for an accuracy of 85.08%. In the prediction series, the percentages of correct classification were 85.71 and 86.55% for fungicides and inactive compounds, respectively, with an accuracy of 86.39%. Some fragments were extracted and their quantitative contributions to the fungicidal activity were calculated taking into consideration the different resistance risk categories for agrochemical fungicides. In the same way, some fragments present in molecules with fungicidal activity and with negative contributions were analyzed like structural alerts responsible of resistance risk.

  7. Design Trade Study for a 4-Meter Off-Axis Primary Mirror Substrate and Mount for the Habitable-Zone Exoplanet Direct Imaging Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, William R.; Stahl, H. Philip

    2017-01-01

    An extensive trade study was conducted to evaluate primary mirror substrate design architectures for the HabEx mission baseline 4-meter off-axis telescope. The study’s purpose is not to produce a final design, but rather to established a design methodology for matching the mirror’s properties (mass and stiffness) with the mission’s optical performance specifications (static dynamic wavefront error, WFE). The study systematically compares the effect of proven design elements (closed-back vs. open-back vs. partial-back; meniscus vs. flat back vs. shaped back; etc.), which can be implemented with proven space mirror materials (ULE and Zerodur), on static and dynamic WFE. Additionally, the study compares static and dynamic WFE of each substrate point design integrated onto three and six point mounts.

  8. A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Gaspare; Fragola, Joseph R.

    1999-01-01

    The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability

  9. Design of B7 bio-medicine industry park in Beijing economic and technical development zone%北京经济技术开发区B7生物医药产业园设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    樊廷福

    2011-01-01

    结合工作实践,对北京经济技术开发区B7生物医药产业园设计进行了总结,分别阐述了该项目的基础处理方法和地上结构选型及做法,归纳了设计经验,并提出了一些指导性建议。%Combining with the author's own working practice,this thesis summarizes the design of B7 bio-medicine industry park in Beijing economic and technical development zone,respectively describes foundation treatment methods and ground structure selection and methods,and then outlines design experiences,as well as some guiding proposals.

  10. Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

    2010-09-01

    Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models

  11. Zone edge effects with variable rate irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Variable rate irrigation (VRI) systems may offer solutions to enhance water use efficiency by addressing variability within a field. However, the design of VRI systems should be considered to maximize application uniformity within sprinkler zones, while minimizing edge effects between such zones alo...

  12. Economic Risk Assessment of Early Stage Designs for Glycerol2Valorization in Biorefinery Concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.

    2016-01-01

    , and discount rate, among others, have high impact on the project’s profitability analysis. Therefore, the profitability was tested under uncertainties by using NPV and MSP as economic metrics. The robust ranking of solutions is presented with respect to minimum economic risk of the project being nonprofitable...... and decreased economic risk by approximately 20%, therefore creating a production plant that can continuously adapt to market forces and thus optimize profitability.......%); or finally, (iii) 1,2-propanediol (16 MM$ with 68%). As a risk reduction strategy, a multiproduct biorefinery is suggested which is capable of switching between the production of lactic acid and succinic acid. This solution comes with increased capital investment; however, it leads to more robust NPV...

  13. 华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划%Occurrence rules and risk zoning of dry-hot wind in winter wheat producing areas of north China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨霏云; 朱玉洁; 刘伟昌

    2013-01-01

    Based on the index of the occurrence of dryhot wind in winter wheat region,an index of its occurrence intensity was established and the occurrence rule of dry-hot wind was inverted for the main winter wheat producing areas in the North China Plain since 1961.According to the results,the winter wheat area of the middle and south of Hebei,the west and north of Shandong and the north of Henan are the high risk zones of dry-hot wind,and the occurrence has reduced since the beginning of 1980' s.Thus,using the winter wheat observatory meteorological data,production structure material,yield,growth phase and other data,a dry-hot wind risk assessment model was established after the construction of the dry-hot wind risk evaluation index system that cover the dry-hot wind strength risk index and integrated disaster resisting capability index of the winter wheat.The dry-hot risk in main winter wheat producing areas of north China was then assessed using the model,and the dry-hot wind risk zoning assessment map was made for the areas.Assessment results show that,southeast of Hebei and northwest of Shandong are areas with high risk of the dry-hot wind influence,while south of Henan,east of Shandong and Hebei are low risk areas.%基于冬小麦干热风发生指标,构建了冬小麦干热风的发生强度指标,反演了华北平原冬小麦主产区1961年以来干热风的发生规律.通过分析发现,河北中南部、山东西部和北部、河南北部等冬小麦区属于干热风高发区,而进入20世纪80年代以来,干热风发生呈减少趋势.利用冬小麦观测站的气象资料、产量及其结构资料和发育期资料等数据,构建了包括干热风强度风险指数、综合抗灾能力指数的干热风风险评估指标体系,建立了干热风风险评估模型,对华北冬小麦主产区的干热风风险进行了评估,制作了华北平原冬小麦区干热风风险区划评估图.评估结果显示,河北东南部和山东西北部为干热

  14. Inhalation exposure and related health risks of BTEX in ambient air at different microenvironments of a terai zone in north India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masih, Amit; Lall, Anurag S.; Taneja, Ajay; Singhvi, Raj

    2016-12-01

    BTEX are recognized for their contribution as toxic and carcinogenic human health effects, and enhancement of the global greenhouse effect. Thus, an investigation of ambient BTEX was conducted at selected locations in Gorakhpur for a span of one year in order to ascertain the contagion levels. The concentrations of BTEX were measured at four locations in the city of Gorakhpur, which covers residential, agricultural, roadside and industrial areas with the help of low volume sampler. The samples were extracted with carbon disulphide by occasional agitation and the aromatic fraction was subjected to GC-FID. The average concentration of total BTEX in all samples was 50.8 μg/m3 and the total range was from 10.9 μg/m3 to 208.1 μg/m3 with the median of 44.8 μg/m3. The BTEX concentrations were found to be 27.8, 35.9, 65.6 and 68.6 μg/m3 at residential, agricultural, roadside and industrial sites respectively. The maximum concentration of total BTEX was found to be 61.9 μg/m3 in winter season, followed by 47.9 μg/m3 in summer and 42.7 μg/m3 in monsoon season. The industrial site (35%) had the highest BTEX contribution followed by roadside (33%), agricultural (18%) and residential site (14%). The concentration of BTEX decreased in the order toluene > benzene > ethylbenzene > xylene. The integrated lifetime cancer risk for benzene at all sites, and ethylbenzene at roadside area was found to be higher than the acceptable value and ranges between 1.0E-05 and 7.6E-06, although the non-cancer health risk was found to be within acceptable limit along all the sites. Risk assessment can be used as a tool to ascertain influence on public health and also to encourage risk preclusion approaches directed towards effectual reduction of adverse health effects.

  15. Influence of custom-made implant designs on the biomechanical performance for the case of immediate post-extraction placement in the maxillary esthetic zone: a finite element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jianyu; Zhang, Zhiguang; Chen, Xianshuai; Zhang, Xiao

    2017-01-29

    Due to the increasing adoption of immediate implantation strategies and the rapid development of the computer aided design/computer aided manufacturing technology, a therapeutic concept based on patient-specific implant dentistry has recently been reintroduced by many researchers. However, little information is available on the designs of custom-made dental implant systems, especially their biomechanical behavior. The influence of the custom-made implant designs on the biomechanical performance for both an immediate and a delayed loading protocol in the maxillary esthetic zone was evaluated by means of the finite element (FE) method. FE models of three dental implants were considered: a state of the art cylindrical implant and two custom-made implants designed by reverse engineering technology, namely a root-analogue implant and a root-analogue threaded implant. The von Mises stress distributions and micro-motions around the bone-implant interfaces were calculated using ANSYS software. In a comparison of the three implant designs for both loading protocols, a favorable biomechanical performance was observed for the use of root-analogue threaded implant which approximated the geometry of natural anterior tooth and maintained the original long-axis. The results indicated that bone-implant interfacial micro-motion was reduced and a favorable stress distribution after osseointegration was achieved.

  16. Evaluation on Ambulance Design and Musculoskeletal Disorders Risk Factors among Ambulance Emergency Medical Service Per¬sonnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baba M. DEROS

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Injuries or pains occurred at various body's joints, ligaments, muscles, nerves, tendons, limbs, back and neck are classified as musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs. A single forceful exertion or repeated exposure to force, vibration or awkward posture can result in MSDs. This study was carried out by evaluating the relevant physical measurements of Class B ambulance used in Malaysia. The two main objectives of the study are to evaluate on the ambulance physical dimensions and workstation design and to conduct a Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA to examine ambulance’s emergency medical service (EMS workers’ activities and their associated MSDs risk factors.Methods: The two methodologies adopted for the study conducted in 2014 were direct measurement of the ambulance physical dimensions and workstation layout; and in-depth interviews of five EMS workers that provides patient care during transporting patient to a public hospital in Kota Bharu, Kelantan. REBA was conducted on seven commonly performed activities by EMS workers for identifying postural risks.Results: The study found ambulance width is too narrow and workstation layout may exposed EMS workers to MSDs risks. REBA scores for the seven commonly performed activities in the ambulance ranges from medium to very high. Conclusion: Seven important MSDs risk factors to be considered in the design of the Class B ambulance for performing patient care activities that may lead towards EMS workers’ injury are awkward posture, bumping, instability, narrow workspace dimension, inappropriate arrangement of storage cabinet, inappropriate arrangement of medical equipment, inadequate railing and seat, and inappropriate stretcher.  Keywords: Musculoskeletal disorders, Ambulance, EMS, Workers, REBA, Risks

  17. Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volf, Mette

    This publication is unique in its demystification and operationalization of the complex and elusive nature of the design process. The publication portrays the designer’s daily work and the creative process, which the designer is a part of. Apart from displaying the designer’s work methods...... and design parameters, the publication shows examples from renowned Danish design firms. Through these examples the reader gets an insight into the designer’s reality....

  18. Risk-Informed Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (RI-MVA). An NRAP White Paper Documenting Methods and a Demonstration Model for Risk-Informed MVA System Design and Operations in Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Sadovsky, Artyom; Sullivan, E. C.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper accompanies a demonstration model that implements methods for the risk-informed design of monitoring, verification and accounting (RI-MVA) systems in geologic carbon sequestration projects. The intent is that this model will ultimately be integrated with, or interfaced with, the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) integrated assessment model (IAM). The RI-MVA methods described here apply optimization techniques in the analytical environment of NRAP risk profiles to allow systematic identification and comparison of the risk and cost attributes of MVA design options.

  19. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  20. Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface sediments of northern littoral zone of Lake Çıldır, Ardahan, Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kükrer, Serkan; Seker, Sebahat; Abacı, Z Tuğba; Kutlu, Banu

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the heavy metal levels (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Mn, Fe, As, Cd, Cr, Hg), organic carbon, and chlorophyll degradation products were studied to prove their ecological effects in Lake Çıldır, where fossil fuels are used as an energy source in the studied area for most of the year, and domestic waste from settlements is discharged directly into the lake. Sediment samples were collected from six sites on the northern shore of Çıldır Lake, Turkey in November 2012. Enrichment (EF) and contamination factor (CF) values were determined, and Pollution Load (PLI) and Potential Ecological Risk (PER) indices were calculated. Average concentrations of heavy metals in the sediments were, in descending order, Fe > Mn > Zn > Ni > Cr > Cu > Pb > As > Cd > Hg, respectively. According to mean values, the source of these elements may be considered natural due to lack of enrichment in Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cr in the sediment samples. Regarding enrichment of As, Cd, Mn, and Hg, the highest EF belongs to Hg. PLI and PER values indicate there are moderate ecological risk in the lake.

  1. Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    STEWART Mark G

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure,and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis,the procedure can be used to optimise blastmitigation strategies.The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which,when subjected to blast loading,has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants.Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios.The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling,glazing response and glazing failure criteria.Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building.The paper shows an illustrative exampie of how this information,when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria,can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

  2. Estimating interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors efficiency of sampling designs within a cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large prospective cohorts originally assembled to study environmental risk factors are increasingly exploited to study gene-environment interactions. Given the cost of genetic studies in large numbers of subjects, being able to select a sub-sample for genotyping that contains most of the information...

  3. Developing Educational Materials about Risks on Social Network Sites: A Design Based Research Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoven, Ellen; Schellens, Tammy; Vanderlinde, Ruben; Valcke, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Nearly all of today's Western teenagers have a profile on a social network site (SNS). As many risks have been reported, researchers and governments have emphasized the role of school education to teach teenagers how to deal safely with SNSs. However, little is known about the specific characteristics which would make interventions effective.…

  4. Probability and risk criteria for channel depth design and channel operation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Moes, H

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the various levels of probability of bottom touching and risk criteria which are being used. This leads to a relationship between the statistically expected number of vertical ship motions in the channel during a single shipping...

  5. Enhancing Cost Realism through Risk-Driven Contracting: Designing Incentive Fees Based on Probabilistic Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    it would award a CPFF contract to what it knew to be the lowest cost contractor to avoid the risk premium of incentive contracts ( Samuelson , 1986... Samuelson , W. (1986). Bidding for contracts. Management Science, 32(12), 1533–1550. Scherer, F. M. (1964). The theory of contractual incentives for cost

  6. SU-E-T-316: The Design of a Risk Index Method for 3D Patient Specific QA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, W; Wu, H [Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Xing, L [Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Suh, T [Catholic UniversityMedical College, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To suggest a new guidance for the evaluation of 3D patient specific QA, a structure-specific risk-index (RI) method was designed and implemented. Methods: A new algorithm was designed to assign the score of Pass, Fail or Pass with Risk to all 3D voxels in each structure by improving a conventional Gamma Index (GI) algorithm, which implied the degree of the risk of under-dose to the treatment target or over-dose to the organ at risks (OAR). Structure-specific distance to agreement (DTOA), dose difference and minimum checkable dose were applied to the GI algorithm, and additional parameters such as dose gradient factor and dose limit of structures were used to the RI method. Maximum passing rate (PR) and minimum PR were designed and calculated for each structure with the RI method. 3D doses were acquired from a spine SBRT plan by simulating the shift of beam iso-center, and tested to show the feasibility of the suggested method. Results: When the iso-center was shifted by 1 mm, 2 mm, and 3 mm, the PR of conventional GI method between shifted and non-shifted 3D doses were 99.9%, 97.4%, and 89.7% for PTV, 99.8%, 84.8%, and 63.2% for spinal cord, and 100%, 99.5%, 91.7% for right lung. The minimum PRs from the RI method were 98.9%, 96.9%, and 89.5% for PTV, and 96.1%, 79.3%, 57.5% for spinal cord, and 92.5%, 92.0%, 84.4% for right lung, respectively. The maximum PRs from the RI method were equal or less than the PRs from the conventional GI evaluation. Conclusion: Designed 3D RI method showed more strict acceptance level than the conventional GI method, especially for OARs. The RI method is expected to give the degrees of risks in the delivered doses, as well as the degrees of agreements between calculated 3D doses and measured (or simulated) 3D doses.

  7. Agro-climatic Risk Zoning of Wheat Stripe Rust in Spring of Sichuan Province%四川省小麦条锈病春季流行的农业气候风险区划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    游超; 肖天贵; 李金建; 张菡

    2012-01-01

    From the perspective of risk zoning, there was little research on the relationship between wheat stripe rust and meteorological condition method during the past years. Based on the theory of agrometeorological disaster risk, this paper developed the agricultural climate risk model to study wheat stripe rust of Sichuan Province in spring with the help of correlation analysis, AHP and range normalization methods. Coinstantaneously, the model included two environmental factors such as climate condition and the number of host plants. Then the risk index was divided into high, medium and low-grades clearly by using the model. After all, with GIS technology, the spring risk zoning of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Province was carried out. Finally, t he result showed that, the western Sichuan Plateau, as well as the mountainous area of southwest Sichuan and the southwest basin region belonged to the low risk area. Meanwhile, the high and medium area included the the most of Sichuan basin where the wheat stripe rust happened frequently in spring. This paper supplied theoretical basis for the forecast in subarea and integrated control of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Province. Based on the conclusion which showed that the risk assessment coincided with the actual situation generally, better services for decision-making to disease pests prevention and reduction could be provided.%针对当前从气象风险角度开展小麦条锈病与气象关系研究甚少的状况,从农业气象灾害风险分析理论出发,采用相关分析、层次分析和极差正规化等方法,建立了包含气候条件和寄主存在数量两个环境因子的四川省小麦条锈病春季流行农业气候风险模型,并划分了高、中、低风险等级的指标.在此基础上,利用GIS技术对四川省小麦条锈病春季流行的农业气候风险进行了区划.结果表明,四川省的川西高原地区、川西南山地和盆地西南部是小麦条锈病春季流行低风险区,

  8. Effect of trans fatty acid isomers from ruminant sources on risk factors of cardiovascular disease: study design and rationale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebauer, Sarah K; Destaillats, Frederic; Mouloungui, Zéphirin; Candy, Laure; Bezelgues, Jean-Baptiste; Dionisi, Fabiola; Baer, David J

    2011-07-01

    Substantial evidence clearly demonstrates the deleterious effects of industrially-produced trans fatty acids (TFA); however, data are lacking from large, well controlled human feeding studies that directly compare the effects of industrially-produced and naturally-occurring TFA. The purpose of the current study is to determine whether consumption of TFA derived from different sources differentially affect risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The study was a randomized, crossover design, controlled-feeding intervention designed to compare the effects of the following diet treatments on risk factors of CVD: low TFA diet (base diet, 34% energy from fat; 0.1% energy from TFA), base diet with vaccenic acid (3.0% energy), base diet with mixed isomers of TFA from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil (3.0% energy), and base diet with cis-9, trans-11 CLA (1.0% energy). The added energy from TFA replaced energy from stearic acid. Participants were required to be between the ages of 25 and 65 years, have a body mass index between 20 and 38 kg/m(2), total cholesterol affect markers of car