The construction of power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jihong; Wang, Canlin; Jiang, Xinfan; Ye, Jianhui; Pan, Feilai

2018-02-01

In recent years, large-scale blackout occurred at home and abroad caused widespread concern about the operation of the grid in the world, and the maintenance risk is an important indicator of grid safety. The barrier operation of the circuit breaker exists in the process of overhaul of the power grid. The operation of the different barrier is of great significance to the change of the power flow, thus affecting the safe operation of the system. Most of the grid operating status evaluation index system did not consider the risk of maintenance, to this end, this paper from the security, economy, quality and cleanliness of the four angles, build the power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance.

Effect of whole wheat flour on the quality, texture profile, and oxidation stability of instant fried noodles.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Xinlei; Zhou, Sumei; Yi, Cuiping; Wang, Li; Qian, Haifeng; Zhang, Hui; Qi, Xiguang

2017-12-01

The effects of whole wheat flour (WWF) on pasting properties of instant fried noodle dry mix and quality of final product were investigated in this research. Refined wheat flour in the recipe for instant-fried noodle was replaced by WWF at different levels. The peak and final viscosities were significantly and negatively correlated to WWF substitution level. With increasing WWF level, the hardness, cohesiveness, adhesiveness, and resilience values of instant fried noodles decreased by 11.63, 16.23, 16.67, 20.00%, respectively. WWF darkened noodle's surface color and increased its oil content (26.63%). A porous and less uniformed structure of the WWF instant fried noodles was observed by a scanning electron microscope. Moreover, the WWF incorporation lowered peroxide values of the instant fried noodles during storage. In conclusion, even though the oil content increased, WWF was helpful to inhibit the oil oxidation and produce instant fried noodles with softer texture and less sticky surface. Refined wheat flour in the recipe for instant-fried noodle was replaced by whole wheat flour (WWF), which is rich in dietary fibers, vitamins, and other bioactive compounds. The addition of WWF delayed the retrogradation tendency of starch in the dry mix. WWF-added instant noodles had softer texture, less sticky surface, and lower peroxide value. Based on the results of this study, the refined wheat flour in the recipe for instant-fried noodle could be partially replaced by WWF to make noodles with better texture profile and higher consumer acceptance. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Equilibria in the competitive retail electricity market considering uncertainty and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharrati, Saeed; Kazemi, Mostafa; Ehsan, Mehdi

2016-01-01

In a medium term planning horizon, a retailer should determine its forward contracting and pool participating strategies as well as the selling price to be offered to the customers. Considering a competitive retail electricity market, the number of clients being supplied by any retailer is a function of the selling prices and some other characteristics of all the retailers. This paper presents an equilibrium problem formulation to model the retailer's medium term decision making problem considering the strategy of other retailers. Decision making of any single retailer is formulated as a risk constraint stochastic programming problem. Uncertainty of pool prices and clients' demands is modeled with scenario generation method and CVaR (conditional value at risk) is used as the risk measure. The resulting single retailer planning problem is a quadratic constrained programming problem which is solved using the Lagrangian relaxation method and the Nash equilibrium point of the competitive retailers is achieved by successive solving of this problem for all the retailers. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated using a realistic case study of Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • Presenting an equilibrium problem formulation for the retailer's decision-making. • Modeling consumer's retail choice behavior with an econometric model. • Managing the retailer's risk caused by rivals' strategy through CVaR. • Approximating the nonlinear price-quota curve with a piecewise-linear function. • Decomposing the nonlinear optimization problem using Lagrangian relaxation method.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalão, J.P.S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A MIQP approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem. ► Head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints are considered. ► As new contribution to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Also, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through CVaR. ► A case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems is provided. - Abstract: In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Considering the human factors contribution to the risk in the design choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papin, B.

2004-01-01

Abstract: With the increasing reliability of the modern technological systems, the human contribution to the global risk in the operation of industrial systems is becoming more and more significant: in the nuclear reactor operation for example, a recent PSA estimation of this contribution is about 25% of the risk of core melting, all situations considered. This urges the designers of future plants to consider the minimization of this Human Factor (HF) contribution, at the very early stage of their design: the experience feedback shows that this is indeed at this stage that the fundamental design options, impacting the most the human reliability in operation, are fixed. The problem is that at these early design stages, it is also quite impossible to apply formal human reliability methods to support this HF optimisation, while the precise operating conditions of the plant are not yet known in enough details. In this paper, another approach of the HF evaluation during the design, based on the functional and operational complexity assessment, is proposed. As an illustration, this approach is used to compare various concepts of nuclear reactors from the point of view of the Human Factor relevance. (authors)

Water Quality Conditions in the Missouri River Mainstem System: 2008 Report

Science.gov (United States)

2009-09-01

conditions, and defines the influence of District Projects on smface water quality. 3) Establish and maintain su·ong working partnerships and...Peck Reservoir) Yes Aquatic Life Drinking Water Supply Warmwater Fishery Riparian Alteration (AL, WWF ) Arsenic (AL, DWS, WWF ) Copper (AL, WWF

Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

2016-01-01

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hosang Jung

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Although global manufacturers can produce most of their final products in local plants, they need to source components or parts from desirable overseas manufacturing partners at low cost in order to fulfill customer orders. In this global manufacturing environment, capacity information for planning is usually imprecise owing to the various risks of overseas plants (e.g., foreign governments’ policies and labor stability. It is therefore not easy for decision-makers to generate a global production plan showing the production amounts at local plants and overseas manufacturing facilities operated by manufacturing partners. In this paper, we present a new global production planning process considering the supply risk of overseas manufacturing sites. First, local experts estimate the supply capacity of an overseas plant using their judgment to determine when the risk could occur and how large the risk impact would be. Next, we run a global production planning model with the estimated supply capacities. The proposed process systematically adopts the qualitative judgments of local experts in the global production planning process and thus can provide companies with a realistic global production plan. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed process with a real world case.

Seas must live

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1977-10-01

The World Wildlife Fund's (WWF) campaign to protect the marine environment has recently received effective financial and moral support from a variety of sources. The Charles E. Merrill Fund made a $100,000 grant to the conservation program to help finance WWF's project concerning the western Pacific archipelago of Palau, the site of a proposed multimillion dollar oil supertanker port and industrial complex. WWF will conduct an independent study to provide an assessment of the ecological, economic, and social consequences of the planned superport. T. Heyerdahl offered his services as a spokesman for WWF's series of advertisements aimed at promoting public interest in conservation of the marine environment. Part of the money raised by the WWF will be used by the National Resources Defence Council (NRDC) in a project designed to ensure that the goals of protection and preservation embodied in environmental laws are carried out along the Atlantic coast. The WWF grant enables the NRDC to employ the services of a marine biologist for one year.

Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

Science.gov (United States)

Park, H.-J.; Kim, D.-S.; Kim, D.-M.

2013-02-01

A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

Study on risk indicator for appropriate plant maintenance considering aging effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mano, Akihiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Takata, Takashi

2014-01-01

Since, nuclear power plants run for a long term and plant component may deteriorate due to aging, plant safety must be maintained through maintenance activities of components. The maintenance will become more important as the number of aged plant increases. In the planning of maintenance, one must select appropriate components and interval. In general, Fussell-Vesely importance (FV) and Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) are used as a risk indicator for the maintenance. A priority order of each component can be evaluated using those risk indicators at a certain condition. However, the influence of aging (time history) on the order cannot be estimated directly. In the paper, a change of conditional core damage probability (ΔCCDP) and a change of conditional containment failure probability (ΔCCFP) are proposed as additional indicators in which the aging effect is evaluated directly so as to determine the priority order. A simplified level one probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been carried out in order to investigate the change of the risk indicators by considering the change of a component failure probability due to aging. In the analyses, three conditions are assumed; base (original) state, aging state and further aging state without maintenance activities. It is demonstrated that the proposed indicator (ΔCCDP and ΔCCFP) reveals the aging effect of each component, while the change of the FV and RAW represent unrealistic behavior through the states. As a result, it is found that the ΔCCDP and ΔCCFP are superior to the others in terms of the ability to evaluate components appropriately in deteriorated (aging) states and take account of differences of deterioration behavior. It is also found that the priority order of the multiple-components maintenance at the same time can also be evaluated using the ΔCCDP and ΔCCFP. Additionally, a risk informed decision making based on the risk acceptance criteria can be discussed for the maintenance procedure using the

Optimization of a dynamic supply portfolio considering risks and discount’s constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masoud Rabbani

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Nowadays finding reliable suppliers in the global supply chains has become so important for success, because reliable suppliers would lead to a reliable supply and besides that orders of customer are met effectively . Yet, there is little empirical evidence to support this view, hence the purpose of this paper is to fill this need by considering risk in order to find the optimum supply portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a multi objective model for the supplier selection portfolio problem that uses conditional value at risk (CVaR criteria to control the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also we consider discount’s constraints which are common assumptions in supplier selection problems. The proposed approach is capable of determining the optimal supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk and minimizing conditional value-at-risk. In this study the Reservation Level driven Tchebycheff Procedure (RLTP which is one of the reference point methods, is used to solve small size of our model through coding in GAMS. As our model is NP-hard; a meta-heuristic approach, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA which is one of the most efficient methods for optimizing multi objective models, is applied to solve large scales of our model. Findings and Originality/value: In order to find a dynamic supply portfolio, we developed a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP model which contains two objectives. One objective minimizes the cost and the other minimizes the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. CVaR is used as the risk controlling method which emphases on low-probability, high-consequence events. Discount option as a common offer from suppliers is also implanted in the proposed model. Our findings show that the proposed model can help in optimization of a dynamic supplier selection portfolio with controlling the corresponding risks for large scales of real word

Women-specific factors to consider in risk, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Ronée E; Coffman, Kirsten E; Miller, Virginia M

2015-03-01

In the era of individualized medicine, gaps in knowledge remain about sex-specific risk factors, diagnostic and treatment options that might reduce mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and improve outcomes for both women and men. In this review, contributions of biological mechanisms involving the sex chromosomes and the sex hormones on the cardiovascular system will be discussed in relationship to the female-specific risk factors for CVD: hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, menopause and use of hormonal therapies for contraception and menopausal symptoms. Additionally, sex-specific factors to consider in the differential diagnosis and treatment of four prevalent CVDs (hypertension, stroke, coronary artery disease and congestive heart failure) will be reviewed with emphasis on areas where additional research is needed.

Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

Standard psychological consultations and follow up for women at increased risk of hereditary breast cancer considering prophylactic mastectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tan Murly BM

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Women at increased (genetic risk of breast cancer have to weigh the personal pros and cons of prophylactic mastectomy (PM as an option to reduce their cancer risk. So far, no routine referral to a psychologist has been investigated for women considering PM. Aim of this study was to asses: 1 the acceptance of the offer of a standard psychological consultation as part of pre-surgical decision-making in high-risk women, 2 reasons for PM and reasons for postponing it, 3 the need for additional psychological interventions, and factors associated, and 4 the frequency of psychiatric/psychological treatment history. Methods During a 30 months period, women at high risk considering PM were offered a psychological consultation. The content of these, and follow-up, consultations were analyzed. Results Most women (70 out of 73 accepted the psychological consultation, and 81% proceeded with PM. Main reasons for undergoing PM were to reduce anxiety about cancer, and to reduce the cancer risk. Uncertainty about surgery and the need for further information were the reasons given most frequently for postponing PM. Additional psychological support was given to 31% before and 14% after PM. The uptake of additional support was significantly higher in women with a BRCA1/2 mutation. A history of psychiatric/psychological treatment was present in 36%, mainly consisting of depression and grief after death of a mother. Conclusion The uptake-rate of the standard psychological consultation indicates a high level of acceptability of this service for women deciding about PM. Since anxiety is one of the main reasons for considering PM, and depression and grief were present in a third, a standard consultation with a psychologist for high-risk women considering PM may be indicated. This may help them arrive at an informed decision, to detect and manage psychological distress, and to plan psychological support services.

Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

Supplementary material for the report 'Economic/climate recovery scorecards. How climate friendly are the economic recovery packages?'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoehne, N.; Eisbrenner, K.; Phylipsen, D.; Burck, J.; Van der Straeten, L.

2009-03-01

As global leaders head to the G20 summit to consider solutions to the current global economic crisis, a new report prepared by Ecofys and Germanwatch for WWF and E3G reveals that many of the economic recovery packages being discussed are a missed opportunity in terms of stimulating a green recovery, and actually run the risk of locking the world into a high-carbon future. The report provides the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of the proposed 'stimulus' packages of five key countries - France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US - as well as the package agreed by the European Union as a whole.

Economic/climate recovery scorecards. How climate friendly are the economic recovery packages?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoehne, N.; Eisbrenner, K.; Phylipsen, D.; Burck, J.; Van der Straeten, L.

2009-04-01

As global leaders head to the G20 summit to consider solutions to the current global economic crisis, a new report prepared by Ecofys and Germanwatch for WWF and E3G reveals that many of the economic recovery packages being discussed are a missed opportunity in terms of stimulating a green recovery, and actually run the risk of locking the world into a high-carbon future. The report provides the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of the proposed 'stimulus' packages of five key countries - France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US - as well as the package agreed by the European Union as a whole.

Water Quality Conditions in the Missouri River Mainstem System 2007 Report

Science.gov (United States)

2008-06-01

conditions, and defmes the influence of District projects on smface water quality. 3) Establish and maintain su·ong working partnerships and...Drinking Water Supply Warmwater Fishery Riparian Alteration (AL, WWF ) Arsenic (AL, DWS, WWF ) Copper (AL, WWF ) No No ----- Pallid sturgeon recovery...dependent upon the continuance of a monitoring partnership with the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality. c Special Study will be implemented, as

External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

Bed care for patients in palliative settings: considering risks to caregivers and bed surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Fragala, Guy

2015-02-01

Ensuring patients are comfortable in bed is key to effective palliative care, but when moving and positioning patients in bed, health professionals face an occupational risk of injury. The turning and positioning (TAP) system is a new method of moving patients in bed, that evidence has shown to reduce the risk of injury to caregivers. Providing the correct bed surface is another aspect of bed care essential to the comfort of the palliative patient, and to aid wound prevention and treatment. It is important to take a patient-centred approach when considering the most appropriate bed surface patients. This article provides an overview and discussion of these two aspects of bed care for palliative patients.

Standard psychological consultations and follow up for women at increased risk of hereditary breast cancer considering prophylactic mastectomy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.B.M. Tan; E.M.A. Bleiker (Eveline); M.B.E. Menke-Pluymers (Marian); A.R. van Gool (Arthur); S. van Dooren (Silvia); B.N. van Geel (Bert); M.M.A. Tilanus-Linthorst (Madeleine); C.C.M. Bartels (Carina); J.G.M. Klijn (Jan); C.T. Brekelmans (Cecile); C.M. Seynaeve (Caroline)

2009-01-01

textabstractBackground: Women at increased (genetic) risk of breast cancer have to weigh the personal pros and cons of prophylactic mastectomy (PM) as an option to reduce their cancer risk. So far, no routine referral to a psychologist has been investigated for women considering PM. Aim of this

Portuguese consumers’ Interest in seafood production and consumption : insights considering benefits, risks and their environmental Impact

OpenAIRE

Moura, Ana Pinto de; Cunha, Luís Miguel

2015-01-01

Considering food choice, individuals base their decisions on assessments of risks and benefits. For seafood products, consumers may balance between perceived benefits and risks from consuming fish in order to get the health benefits without exceeding tolerable intakes of chemical contaminants. Moreover, consumers may balance between the potential environmental impacts of farmed fish and the thought of fish farming as a way to help save the wild fish stocks from over exploration. The aim of th...

Exploiting the renewable energy potential of EU. For a 100% renewable energy by 2050, or how to put the EU on Track by 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, Adam; Anderson, Jason; Bureau de Politique Europeenne du WWF, Brussels

2013-01-01

This report shows where Europe needs to be by 2030 in order to reach a fully renewable energy system by 2050. It is comes just as the European Commission is beginning to consider post-2020 climate and energy plans. Coming amid an increasingly active debate over what should follow current EU climate and energy legislation (the 20-20-20 package), WWF's report adapts the WWF Global 2050 Energy Scenario to the EU27 level and shows that by 2030 the EU could: use at least 38% less energy compared to a business as usual projection, generate more than 40% of its energy from renewable sources, by doing both, reduce its energy related greenhouse emissions by 50% compared to 1990 levels

Security-constrained self-scheduling of generation companies in day-ahead electricity markets considering financial risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Vahidinasab, Vahid

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A security-constrained self-scheduling is presented. ► The proposed framework takes into account the uncertainty of the predicted market prices. ► We model the risk and profit tradeoff of a GENCO based on an efficient multi-objective model. ► Unit commitment and inter-temporal constraints of generators are considered in an MIP model. ► Simulation results are presented on the IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems. - Abstract: In this paper, a new security-constrained self-scheduling framework incorporating the transmission flow limits in both steady state conditions and post-contingent states is presented to produce efficient bidding strategy for generation companies (GENCOs) in day-ahead electricity markets. Moreover, the proposed framework takes into account the uncertainty of the predicted market prices and models the risk and profit tradeoff of a GENCO based on an efficient multi-objective model. Furthermore, unit commitment and inter-temporal constraints of generators are considered in the suggested model converting it to a mixed-integer programming (MIP) optimization problem. Sensitivity of the proposed framework with respect to both the level of the market prices and adopted risk level is also evaluated in the paper. Simulation results are presented on the IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems illustrating the performance of the proposed self-scheduling model.

Ecuadorian Banana Farms Should Consider Organic Banana with Low Price Risks in Their Land-Use Portfolios

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, Luz Maria; Calvas, Baltazar; Knoke, Thomas

2015-01-01

Organic farming is a more environmentally friendly form of land use than conventional agriculture. However, recent studies point out production tradeoffs that often prevent the adoption of such practices by farmers. Our study shows with the example of organic banana production in Ecuador that economic tradeoffs depend much on the approach of the analysis. We test, if organic banana should be included in economic land-use portfolios, which indicate how much of the land is provided for which type of land-use. We use time series data for productivity and prices over 30 years to compute the economic return (as annualized net present value) and its volatility (with standard deviation as risk measure) for eight crops to derive land-use portfolios for different levels of risk, which maximize economic return. We find that organic banana is included in land-use portfolios for almost every level of accepted risk with proportions from 1% to maximally 32%, even if the same high uncertainty as for conventional banana is simulated for organic banana. A more realistic, lower simulated price risk increased the proportion of organic banana substantially to up to 57% and increased annual economic returns by up to US$ 187 per ha. Under an assumed integration of both markets, for organic and conventional banana, simulated by an increased coefficient of correlation of economic return from organic and conventional banana (ρ up to +0.7), organic banana holds significant portions in the land-use portfolios tested only, if a low price risk of organic banana is considered. We conclude that uncertainty is a key issue for the adoption of organic banana. As historic data support a low price risk for organic banana compared to conventional banana, Ecuadorian farmers should consider organic banana as an advantageous land-use option in their land-use portfolios. PMID:25799506

Operation condition for continuous anti-solvent crystallization of CBZ-SAC cocrystal considering deposition risk of undesired crystals

Science.gov (United States)

Nishimaru, Momoko; Nakasa, Miku; Kudo, Shoji; Takiyama, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

Crystallization operation of cocrystal production has deposition risk of undesired crystals. Simultaneously, continuous manufacturing processes are focused on. In this study, conditions for continuous cocrystallization considering risk reduction of undesired crystals deposition were investigated on the view point of thermodynamics and kinetics. The anti-solvent cocrystallization was carried out in four-component system of carbamazepine, saccharin, methanol and water. From the preliminary batch experiment, the relationships among undesired crystal deposition, solution composition decided by mixing ratio of solutions, and residence time for the crystals were considered, and then the conditions of continuous experiment were decided. Under these conditions, the continuous experiment was carried out. The XRD patterns of obtained crystals in the continuous experiment showed that desired cocrystals were obtained without undesired crystals. This experimental result was evaluated by using multi-component phase diagrams from the view point of the operation point's movement. From the evaluation, it was found that there is a certain operation condition which the operation point is fixed with time in the specific domain without the deposition risk of undesired single component crystals. It means the possibility of continuous production of cocrystals without deposition risk of undesired crystals was confirmed by using multi-component phase diagrams.

Risk Analysis of Coastal hazard Considering Sea-level Rise and Local Environment in Coastal Area

Science.gov (United States)

Sangjin, P.; Lee, D. K.; KIM, H.; Ryu, J. E.; Yoo, S.; Ryoo, H.

2014-12-01

Recently, natural hazards has been more unpredictable with increasing frequency and strength due to climate change. Especially, coastal areas would be more vulnerable in the future because of sea-level rise (SLR). In case of Korea, it is surrounded by oceans and has many big cities at coastal area, thus a hazard prevention plan in coastal area is absolutely necessary. However, prior to making the plan, finding areas at risk would be the first step. In order to find the vulnerable area, local characteristics of coastal areas should also be considered along with SLR. Therefore, the objective of the research is to find vulnerable areas, which could be damaged by coastal hazards considering local environment and SLR of coastal areas. Spatial scope of the research was set up as 1km from the coastline according to the 'coastal management law' in Korea. The assessment was done up to the year of 2050, and the highest sea level rise scenario was used. For risk analysis, biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics were considered as to represent local characteristics of coastal area. Risk analysis was carried out through the combination of 'possibility of hazard' and the 'level of damages', and both of them reflect the above-mentioned regional characteristics. Since the range of inundation was narrowed down to the inundation from typhoon in this research, the possibility of inundation caused by typhoon was estimated by using numerical model, which calculated the height of storm surge considering wave, tide, sea-level pressure and SLR. Also the level of damage was estimated by categorizing the socioeconomic character into four factors; human, infrastructure, ecology and socioeconomic. Variables that represent each factor were selected and used in damage estimation with their classification and weighting value. The result shows that the urban coastal areas are more vulnerable and hazardous than other areas because of socioeconomic factors. The east and the south coast are

Effect of water migration between arabinoxylans and gluten on baking quality of whole wheat bread detected by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Juan; Kang, Ji; Wang, Li; Li, Zhen; Wang, Ren; Chen, Zheng Xing; Hou, Gary G

2012-07-04

A new method, a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique characterized by T(2) relaxation time, was developed to study the water migration mechanism between arabinoxylan (AX) gels and gluten matrix in a whole wheat dough (WWD) system prepared from whole wheat flour (WWF) of different particle sizes. The water sequestration of AX gels in wheat bran was verified by the bran fortification test. The evaluations of baking quality of whole wheat bread (WWB) made from WWF with different particle sizes were performed by using SEM, FT-IR, and RP-HPLC techniques. Results showed that the WWB made from WWF of average particle size of 96.99 μm had better baking quality than those of the breads made from WWF of two other particle sizes, 50.21 and 235.40 μm. T(2) relaxation time testing indicated that the decreased particle size of WWF increased the water absorption of AX gels, which led to water migration from the gluten network to the AX gels and resulted in inferior baking quality of WWB.

Climate Change. Solutions for Australia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)

2004-06-01

The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.

The Working Women's Forum: organizing for credit and change.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, M

1983-01-01

The Working Women's Forum (WWF), established in Madras in 1978, has brought together over 13,000 poor urban women around the issue of credit. Most women who live in the slums of Madras work as small-scale traders and vendors, their earnings often providing over half the family income. Interviews with these women revealed that their primary concern was increasing their earning capacity. The WWF was set up to enable these women to obtain low interest loans to expand their businesses. The key element in the WWF structure is the neighborhood loan group, comprised of 10-20 women from the same area who act as mutual guarantors for the loans of all group members. Over 7000 women have received loans and the repayment rate has been over 90%. About 2800 new jobs or businesses have been created, and earnings have increased an average of 50% in existing enterprises. Women report that they are eating better quality and more varied foods as a result of their increased income. The WWF is expanding its activities to address the political and social problems of working women as well. The Forum operates day care centers, skills training centers, and remedial classes for schoolchildren. In 1980 the WWF launched a family planning program in which field workers (who are drawn from the WWF membership and paid $18 per month) disseminate information on health, nutrition, and family planning to families in their communities. According to a staff member, this program was an outcome of the realization that "income generation and large families do not go together." The WWF also promotes intercaste, no dowry marriages and lobbies for public services. Women have become more confident of the possibility of gaining control over their lives, including their fertility. The WWF experience demonstrates that an organization does not need a lot of money, educated staff, or technical expertise to reach poor women. The Forum's success is attributed to its selection of one critical issue, utilization of

X-ray attenuation of the liver and kidney in cats considered at varying risk of hepatic lipidosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Richard; Niessen, Stijn J; Lamb, Christopher R

2014-01-01

X-ray attenuation of the liver has been measured using computed tomography (CT) and reported to decrease in cats with experimentally induced hepatic lipidosis. To assess the clinical utility of this technique, medical records and noncontrast CT scans of a series of cats were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 112 cats met inclusion criteria and were stratified into three hepatic lipidosis risk groups. Group 1 cats were considered low-risk based on no history of inappetence or weight loss, and normal serum chemistry values; Group 2 cats were considered intermediate risk based on weight loss, serum hepatic enzymes above normal limits, or reasonably controlled diabetes mellitus; and Group 3 cats were considered high risk based on poorly controlled diabetes mellitus due to hypersomatotropism. Mean CT attenuation values (Hounsfield units, HU) were measured using regions of interest placed within the liver and cranial pole of the right kidney. Hepatic and renal attenuation were weakly positively correlated with each other (r = 0.2, P = 0.03) and weakly negatively correlated with body weight (r = -0.21, P = 0.05, and r = -0.34, P = 0.001, respectively). Mean (SD) hepatic and renal cortical attenuation values were 70.7 (8.7) HU and 49.6 (9.2) HU for Group 1 cats, 71.4 (7.9) HU and 48.6 (9.1) HU for Group 2, and 68.9 (7.6) HU and 47.6 (7.2) HU for Group 3. There were no significant differences in hepatic or renal attenuation among groups. Findings indicated that CT measures of X-ray attenuation in the liver and kidney may not be accurate predictors of naturally occurring hepatic lipidosis in cats. © 2013 American College of Veterinary Radiology.

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foroogh Ghasemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

Pricing Decisions of a Dual-Channel Supply Chain considering Supply Disruption Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yancong Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Supply disruption may cause strong complaints of customers, which is a cost loss for the firms in the supply chain. Obviously, if realizing that there is the disruption risk, the members in a supply chain will adjust their decisions. For analyzing the influence, we consider a popular supply chain mode with dual channels, where one manufacturer has its direct sales channel and one traditional retailer channel. The manufacturer may suffer a supply disruption so that all ordered products by the retailer or the direct retail channel will be lost, and the members in supply chain will bear the corresponding disruption penalty from the customers. By considering four structures with different market power relations, the closed-form optimal price decisions of the four models are given. We found that the disruption factor improves the sales prices for any member structure as compared to the supply chain without the disruption. And the direct retail prices in the different modes are the same as each other, but the price of the traditional channel is influenced by the market share. And the sorts of the sales prices under different structures are given. We also conduct some extensive numerical analysis and compare the results under different structures. We observe that the expected optimal profits of considering the external penalty are smaller than those of no external penalty, and we give a sort of the optimal expected profits. And we also provide the effects of some parameters on the optimal decisions and the optimal expected profits.

Wind energy industry and environmental bodies - friends not foes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathers, M.

1998-01-01

WWF (the World Wide Fund for Nature) is convinced that Climate Change is one of the major long term threats to global biodiversity. At an international level WWF seeks to highlight the actual and predicted effects of Climate Change upon the natural environment, human health, and national economies in order to press governments and industry to set and achieve an ambitious target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions - 20% by 2005. At the national level, we are working with other NGOs, and industry to promote solutions. WWF is pressing for a reform of government measures to stimulate the renewable energy industry and developing its own 'green electricity' initiative in anticipation of deregulation of the electricity market in 1998. It is hoped that this scheme will both provide a market opportunity to a range of technologies and developers, and give a clear demonstration that there is a strong demand among British consumers for renewable energy. WWF wishes to work with all players, starting perhaps with BWEA and WWF working together on the recently announced DTI 'review of its strategy for the development of renewables technology'. (Author)

Quality characteristics of northern-style Chinese steamed bread prepared from soft red winter wheat flours with waxy wheat flour substitution

Science.gov (United States)

Quality characteristics of Chinese steamed bread (CSB) prepared from two soft red winter (SRW) wheat flours blended with 0-30% waxy wheat flour (WWF) were determined to estimate the influence of starch amylose content. The increased proportion of WWF in blends raised mixograph absorption with insign...

78 FR 59 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Listing the Honduran Emerald Hummingbird

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-02

... used by another hummingbird species to travel between suitable habitats indicate that gaps in suitable..., agricultural cooperatives are raising citrus fruits, corn (maize), rice, and African palm for oil (WWF 2008, p... agricultural plantations. Pesticides and Fertilizers WWF notes that production yield level can only be...

Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

An assembly supply chain network (ASCN) is composed of manufacturers located in different geographical regions. To analyze the robustness of this ASCN when it suffers from catastrophe disruption events, we construct a cascading failure model of risk propagation. In our model, different disruption scenarios s are considered and the probability equation of all disruption scenarios is developed. Using production capability loss as the robustness index (RI) of an ASCN, we conduct a numerical simulation to assess its robustness. Through simulation, we compare the network robustness at different values of linking intensity and node threshold and find that weak linking intensity or high node threshold increases the robustness of the ASCN. We also compare network robustness levels under different disruption scenarios.

Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E

2001-03-01

In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency ({delta}CDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events

Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E.

2001-03-01

In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency (ΔCDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events on

ESHOL study reanalysis: All-cause mortality considered by competing risks and time-dependent covariates for renal transplantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Maduell

2016-03-01

Conclusion: The results of this analysis of the ESHOL trial confirm that post-dilution OL-HDF reduces all-cause mortality versus hemodialysis in prevalent patients. The original results of the ESHOL study, which censored patients discontinuing the study for any reason, were confirmed in the present ITT population without censures and when all-cause mortality was considered by time-dependent and competing risks for transplantation.

Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Agriculture pest and disease risk maps considering MSG satellite data and land surface temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Marques da Silva, J. R.; Damásio, C. V.; Sousa, A. M. O.; Bugalho, L.; Pessanha, L.; Quaresma, P.

2015-06-01

Pest risk maps for agricultural use are usually constructed from data obtained from in-situ meteorological weather stations, which are relatively sparsely distributed and are often quite expensive to install and difficult to maintain. This leads to the creation of maps with relatively low spatial resolution, which are very much dependent on interpolation methodologies. Considering that agricultural applications typically require a more detailed scale analysis than has traditionally been available, remote sensing technology can offer better monitoring at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions, thereby, improving pest management results and reducing costs. This article uses ground temperature, or land surface temperature (LST), data distributed by EUMETSAT/LSASAF (with a spatial resolution of 3 × 3 km (nadir resolution) and a revisiting time of 15 min) to generate one of the most commonly used parameters in pest modeling and monitoring: "thermal integral over air temperature (accumulated degree-days)". The results show a clear association between the accumulated LST values over a threshold and the accumulated values computed from meteorological stations over the same threshold (specific to a particular tomato pest). The results are very promising and enable the production of risk maps for agricultural pests with a degree of spatial and temporal detail that is difficult to achieve using in-situ meteorological stations.

Considering supply risk for supplier selection using an integrated framework of data envelopment analysis and neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahid Nourbakhsh

2013-04-01

Full Text Available For many years, supplier selection as an important multi-criteria decision has attracted both the researchers and practitioners. Recently, high incidences of natural disasters, terrorism attacks, labor strikes, and other kinds of risks, also known as disruptions, indicate the vulnerability of procurement process to these unpredicted events. In this study, a new framework is introduced to select suppliers while considering the supply risks. In the proposed framework, an expert is asked to determine the reliability of each procurement element (i.e., production, transportation, and communication based on some proposed risk factors. Then, a distinct Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP network is trained to play the role of the expert opinion for estimating the reliability scores of each procurement. In addition to reliabilities, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA is used to take into account the conventional selection criteria: price, delivery, quality, and capacity. A set of Pareto-optimal suppliers is obtained from the combination of efficiencies and reliability scores. Finally, the decision maker is recommended to choose between the non-dominated suppliers. Obtained experiment results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Living Planet Report 2016 - Risk and resilience in a new era. Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beaufort, Imre; Caritat, Anne-Kirstine de; Sourd, Christine; Gauffier, Arnaud; Valingot, Mathilde; Chaumien, Marielle; Herbert, Pascal; Francois, Laura; Eckert, Carine; Oerlemans, Natasja; Strand, Holly; Winkelhagen, Anne-marie; Barrett, Mike; Young, Lucy; Guerraoui, May; Zwaal, Natascha; Klinge, Danielle; Nel, Deon; Taylor, Rod; Grooten, Monique; Stevens, Arjette; Geenen, Bart; Kohl, Andrea; Baumueller, Andreas; Davies, Glyn; Tickner, David; Ellis, Karen; Heaps, Louise; Charman, Sue; Ashley-Cantello, Will; Li, Lin; Higgins, Mary Lou; Sejal, Worah; McRae, Louise; Freeman, Robin; Marconi, Valentina; Kopecky, Danielle; Marshall, Suzannah; Milligan, Harriet; Muller, Helen; Turay, Mariam; Cornell, Sarah; Rockstroem, Johan; Villarrubia-Gomez, Patricia; Gaffney, Owen; Galli, Alessandro; Lin, David; Eaton, Derek; Halle, Martin; Martindill, Jon; Hanscom, Laurel; West, Chris; Croft, Simon; Gladek, Eva; Fraser, Matthew; Kennedy, Erin; Roemers, Gerard; Sabag Munoz, Oscar; Van Soesbergen, Arnout; Shepherd, Ellen; Burgess, Neil; Shennan-Farpon, Yara; Borgstroem-Hansson, Carina; Randriamanantena, Dannick; Liu, John D.; Tittonell, Pablo

2016-01-01

Global biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate, putting the survival of other species and our own future at risk. The latest edition of WWF's Living Planet Report brings home the enormity of the situation - and how we can start to put it right. The Living Planet Index reveals that global populations of fish, birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles declined by 58 per cent between 1970 and 2012. We could witness a two-thirds decline in the half-century from 1970 to 2020 - unless we act now to reform our food and energy systems and meet global commitments on addressing climate change, protecting biodiversity and supporting sustainable development Contents: Foreword and executive summary: A resilient Earth for future generations, Living on the edge, Risk and resilience in a new era, Executive summary; Chapter 1: State of the natural planet: Monitoring global biodiversity, The Living Planet Index in perspective, Ecosystem services: linking nature and people; Chapter 2: Human impacts on the planet: An Earth system perspective, Measuring human pressures; Chapter 3: Exploring root causes: Toward systems thinking, Systems thinking applied to the food system; Chapter 4: A resilient planet for nature and people: The dual challenge of sustainable development, Transitioning the global economic system, Transformation of energy and food systems, The path ahead; Glossary and abbreviations, references

A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcez, Thalles Vitelli; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

2014-01-01

This paper explores a risk measure of underground vaults that considers the consequences of arc faults. The increasing use of underground systems, together with the aging of networks, the lack of maintenance and interference from other (third party) underground systems nearby have caused many accidents in urban areas, thus endangering human life. The involvement of a large number (hundreds or thousands) of underground vaults with different characteristics, the lack of historical data on modes of failure, the rarity of the occurrence of some faults, the magnitude of their consequences and the involvement of a complex environment surrounding the hazard zone make risk management even more complex and uncertain. Furthermore, given that the (monetary, time, staff, etc.) resources of an electrical power company are limited and scarce, it is necessary to use decision-making tools that aggregate the consequences and the uncertainties to assess the risks jointly with the preference structure of the company, thus solving the problem more realistically. Therefore, this paper puts forward the use of an additional risk analysis for manhole events in underground electrical distribution networks with a view to its being used as a decision aid tool in risk management. As an illustration of the use of the risk measurement tool proposed, a numerical application is presented. The result rather than showing a ranking of underground vaults, gives a measure of the risk used that can show the decision-maker (DM) how much better one group of alternatives (formed by alternatives with quite similar risk values) is than other groups, based on the DM’s attitude to risk and grounded on the axiomatic structure of utility theory. - Highlights: • The paper proposes a risk measure of underground vaults for manhole events. • It makes risk analysis in underground electrical distribution networks. • It makes more than show a risk ranking of underground vaults. • It can show to the DM how

Computing the Risk of Postprandial Hypo- and Hyperglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Considering Intrapatient Variability and Other Sources of Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

García-Jaramillo, Maira; Calm, Remei; Bondia, Jorge; Tarín, Cristina; Vehí, Josep

2009-01-01

Objective The objective of this article was to develop a methodology to quantify the risk of suffering different grades of hypo- and hyperglycemia episodes in the postprandial state. Methods Interval predictions of patient postprandial glucose were performed during a 5-hour period after a meal for a set of 3315 scenarios. Uncertainty in the patient's insulin sensitivities and carbohydrate (CHO) contents of the planned meal was considered. A normalized area under the curve of the worst-case predicted glucose excursion for severe and mild hypo- and hyperglycemia glucose ranges was obtained and weighted accordingly to their importance. As a result, a comprehensive risk measure was obtained. A reference model of preprandial glucose values representing the behavior in different ranges was chosen by a ξ2 test. The relationship between the computed risk index and the probability of occurrence of events was analyzed for these reference models through 19,500 Monte Carlo simulations. Results The obtained reference models for each preprandial glucose range were 100, 160, and 220 mg/dl. A relationship between the risk index ranges 120 and the probability of occurrence of mild and severe postprandial hyper- and hypoglycemia can be derived. Conclusions When intrapatient variability and uncertainty in the CHO content of the meal are considered, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycemia episodes induced by the tested insulin therapy can be calculated. PMID:20144339

National Wetland Mitigation Banking Study Wetland Migitation Banking.

Science.gov (United States)

1994-02-01

habitat (i.e. number of snags, extent of exposed steep shoreline, etc.) rather than selecting species themselves as function indicators [ WWF 1992...etc.) that are converted to portray hydrologic, water quality, and habitat functions as well as wetland loss on watershed scales [ WWF 1992]. The...Natural Areas - include the Stewardship Program, a partnership program between the private and public sectors for conservation land acquisitions

Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

Science.gov (United States)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

Risk Assessment of Power System considering the CPS of Transformers

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Long; Peng, Zewu; Liu, Xindong; Li, Canbing; Chen, Can

2018-02-01

This paper constructs a risk assessment framework of power system for device-level information security, analyzes the typical protection configuration of power transformers, and takes transformer gas protection and differential protection as examples to put forward a method that analyzes the cyber security in electric power system, which targets transformer protection parameters. We estimate the risk of power system accounting for the cyber security of transformer through utilizing Monte Carlo method and two indexes, which are the loss of load probability and the expected demand not supplied. The proposed approach is tested with IEEE 9 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system.

Multi-scale structures and pasting characteristics of starch in whole-wheat flour treated by superfine grinding.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Meng; Zhang, Binjia; Jia, Caihua; Zhao, Siming

2017-11-01

The multi-scale structures and pasting properties of starch in WWF were investigated after superfine grinding. Five particle size distributions of WWF and their corresponding starch were obtained. The grinding process reduced the particle size of WWF and starch. However, a slight increase of fragments from starch granules was observed with enhanced grinding strength because of the small decrease in starch particle size and the existence of other WWF components that undertook some of shearing force and friction during grinding. A prominent reduction in starch crystallinity was resulted due to the destruction of crystalline structure by grinding. Small-angle X-ray scattering analyses indicated the disordering in starch semi-crystalline lamellae with thinner lamellae thickness. Additionally, the 13 C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectra demonstrated the alterations in starch chain conformation by varying peak areas of starch carbons (C1 and C4). Along with these structural changes, Starch pasting characteristics showed substantial variations, indicating decreased viscosities and higher pasting stability. The results suggest that the grinding treatments influenced the structures and pasting properties of starch even at a non-separated state, the changes in starch structures were related to the variations in starch gelatinization characteristics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rheological properties and mineral content of buckwheat enriched wholegrain wheat pasta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nedeljković Nataša

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Light buckwheat flour (LBF was used to substitute 20% of whole wheat flour (WWF in the formulation of wholegrain wheat pasta. Wholegrain wheat pasta (WWP and buckwheat enriched wholegrain wheat pasta (BWWP were produced on an industrial scale. Substitution level of buckwheat flour (20% was based on previously conducted rheological tests on LBF/WWF blends which were performed using 10, 20 and 30% of LBF. The obtained Mixolab profiles have indicated that wheat blend containing 20% LBF expressed the most similar rheological parameters to WWF. Proximate composition, cooking quality and mineral content of BWWP were analyzed and compared with those of WWP. The substitution of WWF with LBF in the pasta formulation resulted in significantly increased (P < 0.05 contents of P, Mg, K and Zn compared to WWP in dry pasta. The reduction in mineral content of BWWP during cooking was significantly higher (P < 0.05 compared to WWP. The content of P, Mg and K were at same level in both type of pasta after cooking. The obtained results suggest that enrichment of WWP with LBF at the level of 20% did not improve the mineral content of cooked pasta, although increase in minerals was observed in dry pasta. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR31029

Aspects of safety science to be considered when comparing risks in the conversion of energy from fossil, nuclear and regenerative primary energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teague, H.J.

1990-01-01

To achieve a valid comparison it will be necessary to ensure that a roughly uniform level of knowledge and understanding in the application of risk analysis as well as in the specific energy technology is available to all the groups conducting the analyses. Experience of major risk studies has highlighted the improvements introduced as a direct result. That may not be essential to the risk comparison itself, but it seems a positive aspect certain to repay consideration. Quite apart from the actual execution of the risk studies it is important to consider at all stages the limitations of a purely numerical description of the risks. Whilst maintaining full scientific rigour in evaluating the risks, that will not tell the whole story and the study will need supplementary considerations to enable a full perspective to emerge. (orig.)

Improvement of the cogeneration facilities, considering the aspects of financial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, A.H.M.; Nogueira, L.A.H.; Costa Bortoni, E. da

1992-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology to include the tools of the Portfolio Theory in the design of the cogeneration facilities. So, the effects of the risk on the return can be take in account. A computer program was developed to simulate the impacts of the thermal and mechanical (or electrical) loads on energy surplus and the potential risk. (C.M.)

IMPROVEMENT OF BUSINESS PROCESSES OF THE ORGANIZATION CONSIDERING RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Дмитро Іванович БЕДРІЙ

2015-05-01

Full Text Available It is proposed to analyze the methods of optimization of business processes of the organization. The results of which is proposed to apply to the method of reengineering of business processes of the organization. Conclusions about the need to implement business process reengineering of the organization of the risk having an impact on its operations are made.

Physical activity and coronary artery calcification in two cohorts of women representing early and late postmenopause.

Science.gov (United States)

Storti, Kristi L; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley K; Underwood, Darcy A; Kuller, Lewis H; Kriska, Andrea M

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between physical activity (PA) and coronary artery calcification (CAC) among two cohorts of postmenopausal (PM) women representing early and late postmenopause. The cross-sectional relationship between PA and CAC was examined in 173 younger PM women (mean age ± SD, 56.8 ± 2.9 y) from the Women on the Move Through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) study and 121 older PM women (mean age ± SD, 73.9 ± 3.8 y) from the Walking Women Follow-up (WWF) study who had complete PA and CAC data. PA was measured objectively using a pedometer over a 7-day period in both cohorts. CAC was assessed using electron beam tomography. Descriptive statistics were used to describe median levels of PA and CAC, as well as proportions of detectable CAC (0 vs > 0). Fifty-seven percent of WOMAN study participants and 74% of WWF study participants had detectable CAC. The median (interquartile range) CAC score was 1.4 (0-23.3) for participants in the WOMAN study and 38.8 (0-264.4) among WWF study participants. Median (interquartile range) step counts were 6,447 (4,823-8,722) steps per day in the WOMAN study and 5,466 (3,610-7,576) steps per day for WWF study participants. Among WWF study participants, there was a statistically significant inverse association between pedometer steps and CAC (P for trend = 0.002); no association was found among WOMAN study participants. Among older PM women, higher levels of PA were associated with lower CAC. However, the relationship was not observed in PM women, likely due to the lower prevalence of CAC in this age group.

A multi-objective model for locating distribution centers in a supply chain network considering risk and inventory decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Gharegozloo Hamedani

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-objective location problem in a three level supply chain network under uncertain environment considering inventory decisions. The proposed model of this paper considers uncertainty for different parameters including procurement, transportation costs, supply, demand and the capacity of various facilities. The proposed model presents a robust optimization model, which specifies locations of distribution centers to be opened, inventory control parameters (r, Q, and allocation of supply chain components, concurrently. The resulted mixed-integer nonlinear programming minimizes the expected total cost of such a supply chain network comprising location, procurement, transportation, holding, ordering, and shortage costs. The model also minimizes the variability of the total cost of relief chain and minimizes the financial risk or the probability of not meeting a certain budget. We use the ε-constraint method, which is a multi-objective technique with implicit trade-off information given, to solve the problem and using a couple of numerical instances, we examine the performance of the proposed approach.

A Convex Model of Risk-Based Unit Commitment for Day-Ahead Market Clearing Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Ning; Kang, Chongqing; Xia, Qing

2015-01-01

The integration of wind power requires the power system to be sufficiently flexible to accommodate its forecast errors. In the market clearing process, the scheduling of flexibility relies on the manner in which the wind power uncertainty is addressed in the unit commitment (UC) model. This paper...... and are considered in both the objective functions and the constraints. The RUC model is shown to be convex and is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem using relaxation and piecewise linearization. The proposed RUC model is tested using a three-bus system and an IEEE RTS79 system...... that the risk modeling facilitates a strategic market clearing procedure with a reasonable computational expense....

"There Are No Known Benefits . . .": Considering the Risk/Benefit Ratio of Qualitative Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Opsal, Tara; Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Cross, Jennifer; Kaanta, Tanya; Dickmann, Ellyn; Colomer, Soria; Erdil-Moody, Zeynep

2016-07-01

Institutional review boards (IRBs) are responsible for weighing the risks and benefits of research participation. Qualitative researchers note numerous instances where IRB ethical frameworks fail to align with the ethics of their research projects and point out that IRB understandings of the benefits and risks of research often differ from those of the participants they seek to protect. This qualitative cross-case research investigates participants' interview experiences in six qualitative studies that differed in their methods, subject of focus, and populations. Our findings indicate that contemporary IRBs' use of population "vulnerability" and topic "sensitivity" to assess project risk does not adequately determine the benefits, risks, or ethicality of research. We recommend that IRBs treat as real the evidence for benefits in qualitative research, recognize that sensitivity and vulnerability do not predict risk, and encourage researchers to attend to relationships in their projects. © The Author(s) 2015.

Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés, E-mail: andres@uhu.es

2016-01-15

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation.

Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés

2016-01-01

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation

Assessing crash risk considering vehicle interactions with trucks using point detector data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyun, Kyung Kate; Jeong, Kyungsoo; Tok, Andre; Ritchie, Stephen G

2018-03-12

Trucks have distinct driving characteristics in general traffic streams such as lower speeds and limitations in acceleration and deceleration. As a consequence, vehicles keep longer headways or frequently change lane when they follow a truck, which is expected to increase crash risk. This study introduces several traffic measures at the individual vehicle level to capture vehicle interactions between trucks and non-trucks and analyzed how the measures affect crash risk under different traffic conditions. The traffic measures were developed using headways obtained from Inductive Loop Detectors (ILDs). In addition, a truck detection algorithm using a Gaussian Mixture (GM) model was developed to identify trucks and to estimate truck exposure from ILD data. Using the identified vehicle types from the GM model, vehicle interaction metrics were categorized into three groups based on the combination of leading and following vehicle types. The effects of the proposed traffic measures on crash risk were modeled in two different cases of prior- and non-crash using a case-control approach utilizing a conditional logistic regression. Results showed that the vehicle interactions between the leading and following vehicle types were highly associated with crash risk, and further showed different impacts on crash risk by traffic conditions. Specifically, crashes were more likely to occur when a truck following a non-truck had shorter average headway but greater headway variance in heavy traffic while a non-truck following a truck had greater headway variance in light traffic. This study obtained meaningful conclusions that vehicle interactions involved with trucks were significantly related to the crash likelihood rather than the measures that estimate average traffic condition such as total volume or average headway of the traffic stream. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occupational risk factors have to be considered in the definition of high-risk lung cancer populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, P; Gonzalez, M; Bourgkard, E; Courouble, N; Clément-Duchêne, C; Martinet, Y; Févotte, J; Paris, C

2012-03-27

The aim of this study was to compute attributable fractions (AF) to occupational factors in an area in North-Eastern France with high lung cancer rates and a past of mining and steel industry. A population-based case-control study among males aged 40-79 was conducted, including confirmed primary lung cancer cases from all hospitals of the study region. Controls were stratified by broad age-classes, district and socioeconomic classes. Detailed occupational and personal risk factors were obtained in face-to-face interviews. Cumulative occupational exposure indices were obtained from the questionnaires. Attributable fractions were computed from multiple unconditional logistic regression models. A total of 246 cases and 531 controls were included. The odds ratios (ORs) adjusted on cumulative smoking and family history of lung cancer increased significantly with the cumulative exposure indices to asbestos, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and crystalline silica, and with exposure to diesel motor exhaust. The AF for occupational factors exceeded 50%, the most important contributor being crystalline silica and asbestos. These AFs are higher than most published figures. This can be because of the highly industrialised area or methods for exposure assessments. Occupational factors are important risk factors and should not be forgotten when defining high-risk lung cancer populations.

Contributions of wastewater, runoff and sewer deposit erosion to wet weather pollutant loads in combined sewer systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasperi, J; Gromaire, M C; Kafi, M; Moilleron, R; Chebbo, G

2010-12-01

An observatory of urban pollutants was created in Paris for the purpose of assessing the dynamics of wastewater and wet weather flow (WW and WWF) pollutant loads within combined sewers. This observatory is composed of six urban catchments, covering land areas ranging in size from 42 ha to 2581 ha. For a wide array of parameters including total suspended solids (TSS), chemical and biochemical oxygen demand (COD and BOD(5)), total organic carbon (TOC), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), this article is intended to evaluate the contributions of wastewater, runoff and in-sewer processes to WWF pollutant loads through the use of an entry-exit mass balance approach. To achieve this objective, a total of 16 rain events were sampled on these sites between May 2003 and February 2006. This study has confirmed that at the considered catchment scale (i.e. from 42 ha to 2581 ha) the production and transfer processes associated with WWF pollutant loads do not vary with basin scale. Entry-exit chemical mass balances over all catchments and for a large number of rain events indicate that wastewater constitutes the main source of organic and nitrogenous pollution, while runoff is the predominant source of Zn. For Cu, PAHs and TSS, the calculation underscores the major role played by in-sewer processes, specifically by sediment erosion, as a source of WWF pollution. A significant loss of dissolved metals was also observed during their transfer within the sewer network, likely as a consequence of the adsorption of dissolved metals on TSS and/or on sewer deposits. Moreover, the nature of eroded particles was examined and compared to the various sewer deposits. This comparison has highlighted that such particles exhibit similar organic and PAH contents to those measured in the organic layer, thus suggesting that the deposit eroded during a wet weather period is organic and of a nature comparable to the organic layer

PROBLEMS OF RISK COMMUNICATION: NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS AND THEIR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PUBLIC OPINION ON ISSUES OF POPULATION’S RADIATION PROTECTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Biblin

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Events connected with the development and improvement of the nuclear industry are usually ambiguously perceived by the public. Mass-media and Internet play a leading role in the development of the public opinion on the most relevant public life issues, ecology and radiation safety in particular. Non-governmental organizations can impact the adequate perception of the issues of the radiation safety in the region by the public. Materials and methods: this study is focused on the primary evaluation of the data on the results of the sociological survey of three regions of the North-West of the Russian Federation: St-Petersburg, Leningrad and Murmansk regions; and the assessment of the websites of the non-governmental organizations, activities of the non-governmental organizations in the Internet and social networks. Results: the study indicated that non-governmental organizations actively use Internet and social networks in their practice. All the relevant non-governmental organizations have websites and social network accounts. Based on the number of the subscribers in social networks, it was possible to mark two non-governmental organizations: Greenpeace and World Wildlife Fund (WWF with more than 400000 subscribers each. VKontakte social network was assessed as the most effective mean of communicating with the public; a total number of subscribers on the groups of major non-governmental organizations exceeds 500000 persons. These two organizations are the most popular and trusted by the public. Greenpeace is known to 26% of respondents; WWF – to 11%. The population of the Murmansk region is more informed about the actions of the non-governmental organizations. 48% of the respondents in the Murmansk region named at least one non-governmental organization answering the question “What non-governmental organizations active in the field of radiation protection do you know?” with the corresponding 18% and 29% in St-Petersburg and Leningrad region

Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

2017-12-01

Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

Considering Risk Associated with the Realization of Waste Management Investment Plans in Cracow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hajduga Gabriela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To fulfill obligations to the European Union on waste management, the authorities of the city of Cracow, decided to build a waste incineration plant. Such investment involves considerable risks, not only financial but also social. The paper conducted a risk analysis based on the index net present value, identifies factors which are particularly exposed, and proposes solutions for reducing its level.

Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Wessel

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598 were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%, online registry (37% and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%. Respondents were 37 ± 11 years old, primarily White (54%, female (69%, college educated (46%, with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%. Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52% and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7] and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing.

Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

Considering risk contexts in explaining the paradoxical HIV increase among female sex workers in Mumbai and Thane, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Bandewar, Sunita V S; Bharat, Shalini; Kongelf, Anine; Pisal, Hemlata; Collumbien, Martine

2016-01-28

complex urban environments that favour abolition. Increased stigmatisation and dispersal of risk can no longer be considered as unexpected. Reaching the increasing proportion of sex workers who intentionally avoid HIV prevention programmes has become the main challenge. Future evaluations need to incorporate building 'dark logic' models to predict potential harms.

Earth Observation Data for Mapping and Evaluation of Ecosystem Services to Improve Human Livelihoods and Conserve Species

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Aurelie C.; Bhagabati, Nirmal

2010-12-01

Mapping and evaluating ecosystem services is of increasing concern and urgency for conservation organizations such as WWF. Coupling biodiversity assessments with ecosystem services e.g., carbon sequestration, water regulation, sediment reduction, is an effective way to visualize additional financial and human benefits of conservation for decision makers. WWF is eager to apply various Earth Observation data to conservation applications for consistent mapping and monitoring of natural ecosystems and the potential impacts of their loss on humans and wildlife alike. Such examples include forest carbon mapping, integrated evaluation of ecosystem services (via the InVEST tool) and bundling endangered Tiger habitat with various ecosystem services for bundled benefits.

WWF Climate Scorecards. Comparison of the climate performance of the G8 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Graus, W.

2005-07-01

Climate change is a serious and urgent threat to global society. It adds stress to unique and already threatened ecosystems, increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms and droughts, and adds stress to agriculture and food production. In addition, glaciers are melting around the world as is the Arctic, contributing to sea level rise. Climate change also increases the risk of large-scale singular events such as the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. The level at which climate change becomes 'dangerous' depends on the values attached to the threatened systems. Several countries, most prominently the EU, but also e.g. the Philippines and Micronesia, have agreed that global average temperature increase in comparison to pre-industrial levels should be kept below 2C. As a consequence, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to peak in the next decade or two and then decline to a fraction of current levels. Leaving some room for growth for developing countries, industrialized countries need to decrease their emission by the order of 80% by the year 2050. This is a major challenge, as current trends are going in the opposite direction with high emissions in developed countries and growing emissions in most developing countries. Individual countries have reacted differently to this challenge. Each country is unique in its starting position, including the economic activities that result in greenhouse gas emissions, its level of development, industrial structure, availability of natural resources and public perceptions. Since the problem was recognized internationally (1992 with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), governments and the public have reacted differently, also depending on national circumstances. These climate scorecards provide a comparable snapshot of the current situation across the G8 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy

WWF Climate Scorecards. Comparison of the climate performance of the G8 countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Graus, W. [Ecofys GmbH, Koeln (Germany)

2005-07-01

Climate change is a serious and urgent threat to global society. It adds stress to unique and already threatened ecosystems, increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms and droughts, and adds stress to agriculture and food production. In addition, glaciers are melting around the world as is the Arctic, contributing to sea level rise. Climate change also increases the risk of large-scale singular events such as the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. The level at which climate change becomes 'dangerous' depends on the values attached to the threatened systems. Several countries, most prominently the EU, but also e.g. the Philippines and Micronesia, have agreed that global average temperature increase in comparison to pre-industrial levels should be kept below 2C. As a consequence, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to peak in the next decade or two and then decline to a fraction of current levels. Leaving some room for growth for developing countries, industrialized countries need to decrease their emission by the order of 80% by the year 2050. This is a major challenge, as current trends are going in the opposite direction with high emissions in developed countries and growing emissions in most developing countries. Individual countries have reacted differently to this challenge. Each country is unique in its starting position, including the economic activities that result in greenhouse gas emissions, its level of development, industrial structure, availability of natural resources and public perceptions. Since the problem was recognized internationally (1992 with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), governments and the public have reacted differently, also depending on national circumstances. These climate scorecards provide a comparable snapshot of the current situation across the G8 countries (Canada, France, Germany

Thermal stress analysis of reactor containment building considering severe weather condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yun; Kim, Yun-Yong; Hyun, Jung-Hwan; Kim, Do-Gyeum

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We examine that through-wall crack risk in cold weather is high. • It is predicted that cracking in concrete wall will not happen in hot region. • Cracking due to hydration heat can be controlled by appropriate curing condition. • Temperature differences between inner and outer face is relatively small in hot weather. - Abstract: Prediction of concrete cracking due to hydration heat in mass concrete such as reactor containment building (RCB) in nuclear power plant is a crucial issue in construction site. In this study, the numerical analysis for heat transfer and stress development is performed for the containment wall in RCB by considering the severe weather conditions. Finally, concrete cracking risk in hot and cold weather is discussed based on analysis results. In analyses considering severe weather conditions, it is found that the through-wall cracking risk in cold weather is high due to the abrupt temperature difference between inside concrete and the ambient air in cold region. In hot weather, temperature differences between inner and outer face is relatively small, and accordingly the relevant cracking risk is relatively low in contrast with cold weather

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Falakh Fajrul

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Water Treatment Plant (WTP is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment in Water Treatment Plant considering Environmental Health and Safety Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Falakh, Fajrul; Setiani, Onny

2018-02-01

Water Treatment Plant (WTP) is an important infrastructure to ensure human health and the environment. In its development, aspects of environmental safety and health are of concern. This paper case study was conducted at the Water Treatment Plant Company in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of the occupational safety and health program at the risk management stage. The purpose of this study was to identify potential hazards using hazard identification methods and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using criteria of severity and probability of accident. The results obtained from this risk assessment are 22 potential hazards present in the water purification process. Extreme categories that exist in the risk assessment are leakage of chlorine and industrial fires. Chlorine and fire leakage gets the highest value because its impact threatens many things, such as industrial disasters that could endanger human life and the environment. Control measures undertaken to avoid potential hazards are to apply the use of personal protective equipment, but management will also be better managed in accordance with hazard control hazards, occupational safety and health programs such as issuing work permits, emergency response training is required, Very useful in overcoming potential hazards that have been determined.

As Endowment Values Plummet, Some Institutions Consider Suing Brokers

Science.gov (United States)

Masterson, Kathryn

2008-01-01

This article reports that as many as five colleges or charitable foundations whose endowments have suffered significant investment losses or were unable to access money in their accounts in recent months are considering legal action against their brokers or investment managers, alleging misrepresentation of risk or mismanagement. Jacob H.…

Optimization of the fractionated irradiation scheme considering physical doses to tumor and organ at risk based on dose–volume histograms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sugano, Yasutaka [Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Kita-12, Nishi-5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0812 (Japan); Mizuta, Masahiro [Laboratory of Advanced Data Science, Information Initiative Center, Hokkaido University, Kita-11, Nishi-5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0811 (Japan); Takao, Seishin; Shirato, Hiroki; Sutherland, Kenneth L. [Department of Radiation Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita-15, Nishi-5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8638 (Japan); Date, Hiroyuki, E-mail: date@hs.hokudai.ac.jp [Faculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Kita-12, Nishi-5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0812 (Japan)

2015-11-15

Purpose: Radiotherapy of solid tumors has been performed with various fractionation regimens such as multi- and hypofractionations. However, the ability to optimize the fractionation regimen considering the physical dose distribution remains insufficient. This study aims to optimize the fractionation regimen, in which the authors propose a graphical method for selecting the optimal number of fractions (n) and dose per fraction (d) based on dose–volume histograms for tumor and normal tissues of organs around the tumor. Methods: Modified linear-quadratic models were employed to estimate the radiation effects on the tumor and an organ at risk (OAR), where the repopulation of the tumor cells and the linearity of the dose-response curve in the high dose range of the surviving fraction were considered. The minimization problem for the damage effect on the OAR was solved under the constraint that the radiation effect on the tumor is fixed by a graphical method. Here, the damage effect on the OAR was estimated based on the dose–volume histogram. Results: It was found that the optimization of fractionation scheme incorporating the dose–volume histogram is possible by employing appropriate cell surviving models. The graphical method considering the repopulation of tumor cells and a rectilinear response in the high dose range enables them to derive the optimal number of fractions and dose per fraction. For example, in the treatment of prostate cancer, the optimal fractionation was suggested to lie in the range of 8–32 fractions with a daily dose of 2.2–6.3 Gy. Conclusions: It is possible to optimize the number of fractions and dose per fraction based on the physical dose distribution (i.e., dose–volume histogram) by the graphical method considering the effects on tumor and OARs around the tumor. This method may stipulate a new guideline to optimize the fractionation regimen for physics-guided fractionation.

The effect of price and production risks on optimal farm plans in Swiss dairy production considering 2 different milk quota systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Briner, S; Finger, R

2013-04-01

The amount of milk produced on Swiss dairy farms is restricted by contracts between the farmers and their marketing agent. In the past, these contracts have been calculated on a yearly base. Due to a switch in agricultural policy, these yearly contracts are currently more and more replaced by contracts calculated on a monthly base. These new contracts are assumed to restrict the flexibility of farmers to react on changes in milk price as well as on changes in fodder availability. Thus, the contract design is expected to influence farmers' ability to cope with risks and, thus, to influence the farm's gross margin variability. Applying a bioeconomic whole-farm model, the effects of price and weather risk as well as different risk-management strategies on the gross margin and the variability of the gross margin in Swiss dairy production are assessed under the 2 contract designs. We consider both risk-neutral and risk-averse behavior of farmers in our study. Results show that gross margin is slightly higher under the yearly than under the monthly contract. Variability of gross margin is also higher under the yearly than under the monthly contract. If the farmer is assumed to be risk averse, under both contracts he can reduce the coefficient of variation of the gross margin by almost 20% at opportunity costs below 1% of the gross margin. To reduce variability of gross margin under both contracts the size of the feedstock needs to be increased. This increase, however, must be considerably higher under the monthly contract than under the yearly contract. An additional risk-management strategy under a monthly contract is an increase in the area used as intensive pasture to ensure fodder availability in years with unfavorable weather. Under the yearly contract, an increase in the area used as extensive pasture is shown to be more favorable because it increases the amount of direct payments the farmer will receive. Additional restrictions in farm management due to a monthly

Risk of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inhaber, Herbert.

1978-03-01

Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

Factors to consider in developing individual pharmaceutical product quality risk profiles useful to government procurement agencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wei; Boehm, Garth; Zheng, Qiang

2016-01-01

Governments that procure pharmaceutical products from an Essential Medicine List (EML) bear special responsibility for the quality of these products. In this article we examine the possibility of developing a pharmaceutical product quality risk assessment scheme for use by government procurement officials. We use the Chinese EML as a basis, and US recall data is examined as it is publically available.This is justified as the article is only concerned with inherent product quality risks. After establishing a link between Chinese essential medicines and those available in the US, we examine US recall data to separate product specific recalls. We conclude that, in addition to existing manufacturing based risks, there are two other product specific risks that stand out from all others, degradation and dissolution failure. Methodology for relative product risk for degradation is needed to be developed and further work is required to better understand dissolution failures which largely occur with modified-release solid oral products. We conclude that a product specific quality risk profile would be enhanced by including a risk assessment for degradation for all products, and in the case of solid oral products, dissolution.

Acute Neurological Symptoms During Hypobaric Exposure: Consider Cerebral Air Embolism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weenink, Robert P.; Hollmann, Markus W.; van Hulst, Robert A.

2012-01-01

WEENINK RP, HOLLMANN MW, VAN HULST RA. Acute neurological symptoms during hypobaric exposure: consider cerebral air embolism. Aviat Space Environ Med 2012; 83:1084-91. Cerebral arterial gas embolism (CAGE) is well known as a complication of invasive medical procedures and as a risk in diving and

Effect of different iron compounds on rheological and technological parameters as well as bioaccessibility of minerals in whole wheat bread.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebellato, Ana Paula; Bussi, Jéssica; Silva, Joyce Grazielle Siqueira; Greiner, Ralf; Steel, Caroline Joy; Pallone, Juliana Azevedo Lima

2017-04-01

This study aimed at investigating the effect of iron compounds used in whole wheat flour (WWF) fortification, both on rheological properties of the dough and on bread technological quality. Furthermore, bioaccessibility of iron (Fe), zinc (Zn) and calcium (Ca) in the final breads was determined. Rheological properties (mainly dough development time, stability, mixing tolerance index, resistance to extension and ratio number) of the dough and the technological quality of bread (mainly oven spring and cut opening) were altered. However, producing roll breads fortified with different iron compounds was still possible. NaFeEDTA (ferric sodium ethylene diamine tetra acetic acid) proved to be the most effective iron compound in the fortification of WWF, since it presented the highest levels of solubility (44.80%) and dialysability (46.14%), followed by microencapsulated ferrous fumarate (FFm). On the other hand, the microencapsulated ferrous sulfate (FSm) and reduced iron presented the lowest solubility (5.40 and 18.30%, respectively) and dialysability (33.12 and 31.79%, respectively). Zn dialysis was positively influenced by NaFeEDTA, FSm, and ferrous fumarate. As for Ca, dialysis was positively influenced by FSm and negatively influenced by FFm. The data indicated that there is a competitive interaction for the absorption of these minerals in whole wheat roll breads, but all studied minerals can be considered bioaccessible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Decision-Making Process of Genetically At-Risk Couples Considering Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis: Initial Findings from a Grounded Theory Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hershberger, Patricia E.; Gallo, Agatha M.; Kavanaugh, Karen; Olshansky, Ellen; Schwartz, Alan; Tur-Kaspa, Ilan

2012-01-01

Exponential growth in genomics has led to public and private initiatives worldwide that have dramatically increased the number of procreative couples who are aware of their ability to transmit genetic disorders to their future children. Understanding how couples process the meaning of being genetically at risk for their procreative life lags far behind the advances in genomic and reproductive sciences. Moreover, society, policy makers, and clinicians are not aware of the experiences and nuances involved when modern couples are faced with using Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD). The purpose of this study was to discover the decision-making process of genetically at-risk couples as they decide whether to use PGD to prevent the transmission of known single-gene or sex-linked genetic disorders to their children. A qualitative, grounded theory design guided the study in which 22 couples (44 individual partners) from the USA, who were actively considering PGD, participated. Couples were recruited from June 2009 to May 2010 from the Internet and from a large PGD center and a patient newsletter. In-depth semi-structured interviews were completed with each individual partner within the couple dyad, separate from their respective partner. We discovered that couples move through four phases (Identify, Contemplate, Resolve, Engage) of a complex, dynamic, and iterative decision-making process where multiple, sequential decisions are made. In the Identify phase, couples acknowledge the meaning of their at-risk status. Parenthood and reproductive options are explored in the Contemplate phase, where 41% of couples remained for up to 36 months before moving into the Resolve phase. In Resolve, one of three decisions about PGD use is reached, including: Accepting, Declining, or Oscillating. Actualizing decisions occur in the Engage phase. Awareness of the decision-making process among genetically at-risk couples provides foundational work for understanding critical processes

Opium could be considered an independent risk factor for lung cancer: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Naghan, Parisa Adimi; Taslimi, Shervin; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Ebrahimi, Seyyed Meisam; Khosravi, Adnan; Karimi, Shirin; Hosseini, Mostafa; Mortaz, Esmaeil

2013-01-01

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and half of all incident lung cancers are believed to occur in the developing countries, including Iran. We investigated the association of opium with the risk of lung cancer in a case-control study. We enrolled 242 cases and 484 matched controls in this study. A questionnaire was developed, containing questions on basic demographic characteristics, as well as lifelong history of smoking cigarettes, exposure to passive smoking, opium use and alcohol consumption. For smoking cigarettes and opium and also oral opium intake frequency, duration and cumulative use were categorized into three groups: no use, low use and high use. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Multivariate analysis in men showed that after adjusting for the effect of ethnicity, education and pack years of smoking cigarettes, smoking opium remained as a significant independent risk factor with an OR of 3.1 (95% CI 1.2-8.1). In addition, concomitant heavy smoking of cigarettes and opium dramatically increased the risk of lung cancer to an OR of 35.0 (95% CI 11.4-107.9). This study demonstrated that smoking opium is associated with a high risk of lung cancer as an independent risk factor. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Using price data to consider risk in the evaluation of forest management investments.

Science.gov (United States)

David C. Baumgartner; Carol A. Hyldahl

1991-01-01

Shows how existing information on the historic prices of various timber species and products can be used to provide a measure of the market risk, return, and efficient portfolios of alternative forestry investments using examples from three Midwestern states.

Considering sex and gender in Alzheimer disease and other dementias.

Science.gov (United States)

Podcasy, Jessica L; Epperson, C Neill

2016-12-01

Suffering related to dementia is multifaceted because cognitive and physical functioning slowly deteriorates. Advanced age and sex, two of the most prominent risk factors for dementia, are not modifiable. Lifestyle factors such as smoking, excessive alcohol use, and poor diet modulate susceptibility to dementia in both males and females. The degree to which the resulting health conditions (eg, obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease) impact dementia risk varies by sex. Depending on the subtype of dementia, the ratio of male to female prevalence differs. For example, females are at greater risk of developing Alzheimer disease dementia, whereas males are at greater risk of developing vascular dementia. This review examines sex and gender differences in the development of dementia with the goal of highlighting factors that require further investigation. Considering sex as a biological variable in dementia research promises to advance our understanding of the pathophysiology and treatment of these conditions.

Considering sex and gender in Alzheimer disease and other dementias

Science.gov (United States)

Podcasy, Jessica L.; Epperson, C. Neill

2016-01-01

Suffering related to dementia is multifaceted because cognitive and physical functioning slowly deteriorates. Advanced age and sex, two of the most prominent risk factors for dementia, are not modifiable. Lifestyle factors such as smoking, excessive alcohol use, and poor diet modulate susceptibility to dementia in both males and females. The degree to which the resulting health conditions (eg, obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease) impact dementia risk varies by sex. Depending on the subtype of dementia, the ratio of male to female prevalence differs. For example, females are at greater risk of developing Alzheimer disease dementia, whereas males are at greater risk of developing vascular dementia. This review examines sex and gender differences in the development of dementia with the goal of highlighting factors that require further investigation. Considering sex as a biological variable in dementia research promises to advance our understanding of the pathophysiology and treatment of these conditions. PMID:28179815

Power system operation risk analysis considering charging load self-management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Zhe; Wang, Dan; Jia, Hongjie; Djilali, Ned

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The interactive mechanism between system and PHEVs is presented. • The charging load self-management without sacrificing user requirements is proposed. • The charging load self-management is coupled to system operation risk analysis. • The charging load self-management can reduce the extra risk brought by PHEVs. • The charging load self-management can shift charging power to the time with low risk. - Abstract: Many jurisdictions around the world are supporting the adoption of electric vehicles through incentives and the deployment of a charging infrastructure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), with offer mature technology and stable performance, are expected to gain an increasingly larger share of the consumer market. The aggregated effect on power grid due to large-scale penetration of PHEVs needs to be analyzed. Nighttime-charging which typically characterizes PHEVs is helpful in filling the nocturnal load valley, but random charging of large PHEV fleets at night may result in new load peaks and valleys. Active response strategy is a potentially effective solution to mitigate the additional risks brought by the integration of PHEVs. This paper proposes a power system operation risk analysis framework in which charging load self-management is used to control system operation risk. We describe an interactive mechanism between the system and PHEVs in conjunction with a smart charging model is to simulate the time series power consumption of PHEVs. The charging load is managed with adjusting the state transition boundaries and without violating the users’ desired charging constraints. The load curtailment caused by voltage or power flow violation after outages is determined by controlling charging power. At the same time, the system risk is maintained under an acceptable level through charging load self-management. The proposed method is implemented using the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) and

Financial security for women -- Fem Consult congress.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-01-01

The nongovernmental organization "Fem Consult," which seeks to strengthen the socioeconomic position of women by applying a gender perspective to programs and projects in developing countries, celebrated its 10th anniversary in 1996 by holding a conference in the Netherlands on financial security for women in the developing world. During the conference, the President of the WWF (Working Women's Forum) described her agency's 17 years of experience in lending to impoverished rural and urban women in India. By extending microcredit assistance through a network of cooperatives, the WWF has been the catalyst for lasting improvements in the economic and social status of impoverished women. Representatives of the Grameen Bank, Women's World Banking, the Ecumenical Development Cooperative Society, and other organizations also addressed the conference.

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Väinamere talunikud saavad iseseisvaks / Kaire Korpe

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Korpe, Kaire

2002-01-01

Ilmunud ka: Hiiu Leht 19. november lk. 5. Väinamere projekti aidanud Maailma Looduse Fondi (WWF) ja Rootsi abiorganisatsiooni (SIDA) toetuse lõppemisest Väinamere talunikele. Koostööpartnerite vahekonverentsist Haapsalus

Risk-informed regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, D.R.

2003-01-01

In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

2016-04-01

In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Science.gov (United States)

Lisano, Michael E.

2007-01-01

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to

Eesti jalajälg on tohutu / Helen Urbanik

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Urbanik, Helen

2006-01-01

Maailma Looduse Fond (WWF) avaldas raporti, mille kohaselt Eesti nn ökoloogiline jalajälg on maailmas suuruselt seitsmes. Lisaks tabel: Riikide ökoloogiline jalajälg inimese kohta aastal 2003 globaalsetes hektarites

Considering a frame of reference for physical activity research related to the cardiometabolic risk profile in schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vancampfort, Davy; Knapen, Jan; Probst, Michel; van Winkel, Ruud; Deckx, Seppe; Maurissen, Katrien; Peuskens, Joseph; De Hert, Marc

2010-05-30

This article reviews evidence that researchers and mental health service providers need to take into account four modifiable factors that affect the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in people with schizophrenia: (a) physical activity as part of a health-related lifestyle, (b) physical fitness, (c) mental health status and (d) antipsychotic medication. The implementation of physical activity in order to prevent and treat cardiometabolic risk factors in people with schizophrenia is discussed. English language articles published until July 2009 were identified by PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The search terms schizophrenia and metabolic syndrome, physical activity, health, fitness, and lifestyle were used. Physical activity interventions result in positive effects on metabolic outcomes, physical fitness, health-related behavior and mental health. Considering present knowledge, physical therapists should take into account the emotional (negative symptoms, self-esteem, self-efficacy, and stress) and physiological (cardiometabolic parameters) components of mental illness when offering physical activity interventions. The physical activity stimulus should be adapted to the individual's physical fitness level and the side effects of the antipsychotic medications. More research is needed to assist in the practical development of effective evidence-based preventive and curative strategies in psychiatric services for metabolic syndrome in persons with schizophrenia. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Distribution Systems Using an Improved PEM-Based Method Considering Wind and Photovoltaic Power Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingwu Gong

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The intermittency and variability of permeated distributed generators (DGs could cause many critical security and economy risks to distribution systems. This paper applied a certain mathematical distribution to imitate the output variability and uncertainty of DGs. Then, four risk indices—EENS (expected energy not supplied, PLC (probability of load curtailment, EFLC (expected frequency of load curtailment, and SI (severity index—were established to reflect the system risk level of the distribution system. For the certain mathematical distribution of the DGs’ output power, an improved PEM (point estimate method-based method was proposed to calculate these four system risk indices. In this improved PEM-based method, an enumeration method was used to list the states of distribution systems, and an improved PEM was developed to deal with the uncertainties of DGs, and the value of load curtailment in distribution systems was calculated by an optimal power flow algorithm. Finally, the effectiveness and advantages of this proposed PEM-based method for distribution system assessment were verified by testing a modified IEEE 30-bus system. Simulation results have shown that this proposed PEM-based method has a high computational accuracy and highly reduced computational costs compared with other risk assessment methods and is very effective for risk assessments.

Stranõ Baltii obvinjajutsja v tranzite nezakonnoi drevessinõ

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

2005-01-01

Maailma Looduse Fondi (WWF) hinnangul on Baltimaad ning Brasiilia, Kongo ja mõned teised Ida-Aafrika riigid põhiallikad, kust saabub Euroopa Liitu ebaseaduslik metsamaterjal. Balti riikide puhul on eelkõige tegemist Venemaalt saabuva transiidiga

Reviewing efforts in global forest conservation for sustainable forest ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Reviewing efforts in global forest conservation for sustainable forest management: The World Wide Fund (WWF) case study. ... Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

Kümme kõige sobimatumat jõulukingitust / Kaivo Kopli

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Kopli, Kaivo

2004-01-01

Šveitsis asuv Maailma Looduse Fond (WWF) esitas üleskutse hoiduda beluugakaaviari, krokodilkinahksete esemete ja korallidest ehete ostmisest. Need kolm kuuluvad kümne asja hulka, mille kommertskasutamine ähvardab looma- ja taimeliike välja suretada

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

Water accounting and vulnerability evaluation (WAVE): considering atmospheric evaporation recycling and the risk of freshwater depletion in water footprinting.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Markus; van der Ent, Ruud; Eisner, Stephanie; Bach, Vanessa; Finkbeiner, Matthias

2014-04-15

Aiming to enhance the analysis of water consumption and resulting consequences along the supply chain of products, the water accounting and vulnerability evaluation (WAVE) model is introduced. On the accounting level, atmospheric evaporation recycling within drainage basins is considered for the first time, which can reduce water consumption volumes by up to 32%. Rather than predicting impacts, WAVE analyzes the vulnerability of basins to freshwater depletion. Based on local blue water scarcity, the water depletion index (WDI) denotes the risk that water consumption can lead to depletion of freshwater resources. Water scarcity is determined by relating annual water consumption to availability in more than 11,000 basins. Additionally, WDI accounts for the presence of lakes and aquifers which have been neglected in water scarcity assessments so far. By setting WDI to the highest value in (semi)arid basins, absolute freshwater shortage is taken into account in addition to relative scarcity. This avoids mathematical artifacts of previous indicators which turn zero in deserts if consumption is zero. As illustrated in a case study of biofuels, WAVE can help to interpret volumetric water footprint figures and, thus, promotes a sustainable use of global freshwater resources.

Considering Bone Marrow Blasts From Nonerythroid Cellularity Improves the Prognostic Evaluation of Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

Science.gov (United States)

Arenillas, Leonor; Calvo, Xavier; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Alonso, Esther; Ramos, Fernando; Ardanaz, María Teresa; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Marco, Víctor; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Brunet, Salut; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Andreu, Rafael; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Benet; Ferrer, Ana; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

2016-09-20

WHO classification of myeloid malignancies is based mainly on the percentage of bone marrow (BM) blasts. This is considered from total nucleated cells (TNCs), unless there is erythroid-hyperplasia (erythroblasts ≥ 50%), calculated from nonerythroid cells (NECs). In these instances, when BM blasts are ≥ 20%, the disorder is classified as erythroleukemia, and when BM blasts are < 20%, as myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the latter, the percentage of blasts is considered from TNCs. We assessed the percentage of BM blasts from TNCs and NECs in 3,692 patients with MDS from the Grupo Español de Síndromes Mielodisplásicos, 465 patients with erythroid hyperplasia (MDS-E) and 3,227 patients without erythroid hyperplasia. We evaluated the relevance of both quantifications on classification and prognostication. By enumerating blasts systematically from NECs, 22% of patients with MDS-E and 12% with MDS from the whole series diagnosed within WHO categories with < 5% BM blasts, were reclassified into higher-risk categories and showed a poorer overall survival than did those who remained in initial categories (P = .006 and P = .001, respectively). Following WHO recommendations, refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB)-2 diagnosis is not possible in MDS-E, as patients with 10% to < 20% BM blasts from TNCs fulfill erythroleukemia criteria; however, by considering blasts from NECs, 72 patients were recoded as RAEB-2 and showed an inferior overall survival than did patients with RAEB-1 without erythroid hyperplasia. Recalculating the International Prognostic Scoring System by enumerating blasts from NECs in MDS-E and in the overall MDS population reclassified approximately 9% of lower-risk patients into higher-risk categories, which indicated the survival expected for higher-risk patients. Regardless of the presence of erythroid hyperplasia, calculating the percentage of BM blasts from NECs improves prognostic assessment of MDS. This fact should be considered in future

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Science.gov (United States)

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

Advancements in Combined Sewerage System Management

Science.gov (United States)

EPA National CSO Control Policy has nine minimum controls/long-term control plans: Maximization of flow to WWTP; Select CSO controls that will meet CWA requirements; Cost/performance considerations to demonstrate reasonable control alternatives; Maximization of WWF treatment at ...

Meri on, meri jääb... / Tiit Efert

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Efert, Tiit, 1976-

2011-01-01

Merereostuste likvideerimiseks valmis laevandusettevõte Tallink on võtnud vastutuse nii ühiskonna kui ka looduse ees ja selle ajendiks on konkurents. 2007. aastal on ettevõte liitunud Maailma Looduse Fondi (WWF) programmiga, mis keelab laevadel oma reovett otse merre lasta

Application of a General Risk Management Model to Portfolio Optimization Problems with Elliptical Distributed Returns for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Decision Makers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

2007-01-01

textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show

The energy report - Energy-climate preservation - 100% Renewable energy by 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singer, Stephan; Denruyter, Jean-Philippe; Jeffries, Barney; Gibbons, Owen; Hendrix, Ellen; Hiller, Martin; McLellan, Richard; Pols, Donald; Allott, Keith; Anderson, Jason; Baker, Bryn; Battle, Jessica; Blom, Esther; Caught, Kellie; Clough, Kirsty; Chatterjee, Keya; Duveau, Thomas; Elliott, Wendy; Emfel, Magnus; Englum, Lynn; Fabbri, Mariangiola; Geneen, Bart; Gray, Ian; Gritsevich, Inna; Van de Gronden, Johan; Guerraoui, May; Hart, Piers; Hartmann, Joerg; Hofstetter, Patrick; Holland, Richard; Hou, Yanli; Ibrahim, Nora; Kaszewski, Andrea; Kiianmaa, Sampsa; Kokorin, Alexey; Lifeng, Li; Lockley, Pete; Maassen, Paul; Masako, Yosuke; McLaughlin, David; Mathe, Laszlo; McLellan, Elisabeth; Von Mirbach, Martin; Ogorzalek, Kevin; Orr, Stuart; Perrin, Mireille; Pollard, Duncan; Randriambola, Voahirana; Rast, Georg; Roberntz, Peter; Senga, Rafael; Sinha, Shirish; Steindlegger, Gerald; Taylor, Rod; Valencia, Ivan; Vitali, Arianna; Willstedt, Heikki; Woul, Mattias de; Worthington, Richard; Yamagishi, Naoyuki; Boufflers, Jean-Philippe; Gilbert, Olivier; Marsily, Anne de; Graaf, Reinier de; Baird, Laura; Merkeley, Tanner; D'Amico, Federico; Christensen, Vilhelm; McPhee, Amelia

2011-01-01

WWF has a vision of a world that is powered by 100 per cent renewable energy sources by the middle of this century. Unless we make this transition, the world is most unlikely to avoid predicted escalating impacts of climate change. But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy supplies for everyone on the planet by 2050? WWF called upon the expertise of respected energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer to this question. In response, Ecofys has produced a bold and ambitious scenario - which demonstrates that it is technically possible to achieve almost 100 per cent renewable energy sources within the next four decades. The Ecofys scenario raises a number of significant issues and challenges. The Energy Report investigates the most critically important political, economic, environmental and social choices and challenges, and encourages their further debate. How are we going to provide for all of the world's future needs, on energy, food, fibre, water and others, without running into such huge issues as: conflicting demands on land/water availability and use; rising, and in some cases, unsustainable consumption of commodities; nuclear waste; and regionally appropriate and adequate energy mixes? The world needs to seriously consider what will be required to transition to a sustainable energy future, and to find solutions to the dilemmas raised in this report. Answering these challenges - the solutions to the energy needs of current and future generations is one of the most important, challenging and urgent political tasks ahead

Bran characteristics and bread-baking quality of whole grain wheat flour

Science.gov (United States)

Varietal variations in physical and compositional characteristics of bran and their associations with bread-baking quality of whole grain wheat flour (WWF) were investigated using bran obtained from roller milling of 18 wheat varieties. Bran was characterized for composition including protein, fat, ...

Application of the RAFLS model for integrated water resource ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2005-10-04

Oct 4, 2005 ... Keywords: modelling, prediction, water management, Kafue Gorge Reservoir, Zambia. Introduction ... theoretical. In 2001 World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) initiated the ..... to employ 'real-time' flow forecasting techniques for advanced ... tection, less evaporation from the shallow and wide natural and.

Loodusfond avaldas muret gaasitoru pärast / Imbi Paju

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Paju, Imbi, 1959-

2005-01-01

Ilmunud ka: Postimees : na russkom jazõke 20. dets., lk 8. Helsingis peetud Maailma Loodusfondi (WWF) kohtumisel avaldasid keskkonnaorganisatsioonid muret Vene-Saksa gaasijuhtme projekti ümbritseva salatsemise pärast: teadmata on selle täpne paiknemine ja keskkonnamõjud Läänemerele

Considering Weight Loss Programs and Public Health Partnerships in American Evangelical Protestant Churches.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, D Gibbes

2018-06-01

The obesity epidemic is a critical public health threat facing the USA. With the advent of American Evangelical Protestant (AEP) weight loss guides and narratives, AEP churches could potentially aid public health agencies in combatting obesity, and some scholars have called for investment in partnerships between public health agencies and religious institutions. This paper examines the theological and social underpinnings of AEP weight loss programs and considers the potential benefits and risks of public health partnerships with AEP churches to combat obesity. While AEP churches may be successful at empowering people to lose weight, AEP weight loss also carries several risks. These risks include reinforcing gendered bodily norms, stigmatizing both overweight bodies and unhealthy behaviors deemed to be sinful (for example, overeating), and failing to acknowledge social factors that promote obesity. These risks must be assessed and minimized to create appropriate public health weight loss partnerships with AEP communities.

The Optimal Configuration Scheme of the Virtual Power Plant Considering Benefits and Risks of Investors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingmin Wang

2017-07-01

Full Text Available A virtual power plant (VPP is a special virtual unit that integrates various distributed energy resources (DERs distributed in the generation and consumption sides. The optimal configuration scheme of the VPP needs to break the geographical restrictions to make full use of DERs, considering the uncertainties. First, the components of the DERs and the structure of the VPP are briefly introduced. Next, the cubic exponential smoothing method is adopted to predict the VPP load requirement. Finally, the optimal configuration of the DER capacities inside the VPP is calculated by using portfolio theory and genetic algorithms (GA. The results show that the configuration scheme can optimize the DER capacities considering uncertainties, guaranteeing economic benefits of investors, and fully utilizing the DERs. Therefore, this paper provides a feasible reference for the optimal configuration scheme of the VPP from the perspective of investors.

[Does the recent psychosocial research consider the perspective of developmental psychopathology?].

Science.gov (United States)

Glaesmer, Heide; Petermann, Franz; Schüssler, Gerhard

2009-10-01

Developmental psychopathology is studying the development of psychological disorders with a life course perspective and an interdisciplinary approach considering the interplay of biological, psychological and social factors in complex models. The bibliometric analysis examines the implementation of this concept in the recent psychosocial research in the German-speaking area. Volumes 2007 and 2008 of three German psychological journals "Zeitschrift für Psychotherapie, Psychosomatik und Medizinische Psychologie", "Zeitschrift für Psychosomatische Medizin und Psychotherapie", and "Zeitschrift für Psychiatrie, Psychologie und Psychotherapie" were screened for articles dealing with issues of developmental psychopathology. 46 articles were identified and evaluated. Several aspects of developmental psychopathology are considered in a vast number of studies, but there is a main focus on risk factors, but not on protective factors and most of the studies are based on cross-sectional designs. Most of the recent practice in psychosocial research is not beneficial for the identification of causal effects or the complex interplay of risk and protective factors in the development of psychological disorders. Thus, longitudinal studies, taking biological, psychological and social factors and their interplay into account are essential to meet the requirement of developmental psychopathology. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart. New York.

Alternative approach to automated management of load flow in engineering networks considering functional reliability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ирина Александровна Гавриленко

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The approach to automated management of load flow in engineering networks considering functional reliability was proposed in the article. The improvement of the concept of operational and strategic management of load flow in engineering networks was considered. The verbal statement of the problem for thesis research is defined, namely, the problem of development of information technology for exact calculation of the functional reliability of the network, or the risk of short delivery of purpose-oriented product for consumers

Tsunami risk assessment for facility group over a wide area using inundation assessment method considering energy conservation law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukutani, Yo; Imamura, Fumihiko; Tokunaga, Takeshi; Sato, Ichiro

2015-01-01

We propose a quantitative evaluation method of overall tsunami risk that the entire facility group over a wide area holds. We considerably reduced the calculation cost for tsunami inundation depth by adopting the evaluation method using energy conservation law as compared with the evaluation method using non-linear long wave equation. For financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies with contractors over a wide area and business companies with multiple their assets and facilities in various places, the proposed evaluation method in this study could be a useful approach to implement their risk-based management decisions for tsunami risk. (author)

Operational risk and e-banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şerbu, R.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Banking involves a variety of risks. Under Basel II, the main risks are the monitored credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Frequently, operational risks are underestimated, considering that they would not affect the optimal activity of a bank. However, past experience of some credit institutions have shown that operational risk is an important cause of financial losses in the banking sector. Operational risk is generated by a complex of factors that manifests primarily as a result of direct customer interaction with the credit institution. In this context, the provision of e-banking services reduces direct contact with bank customers and thus reduces potential losses arising from operational risk. In sum, we consider it necessary to be aware of the link between operational risk and e-banking services promoted by banks and of the importance of this connection especially in a financial environment affected by the financial crisis.

A six-year retrospective analysis of cut-out risk predictors in cephalomedullary nailing for pertrochanteric fractures: Can the tip-apex distance (TAD) still be considered the best parameter?

Science.gov (United States)

Caruso, G; Bonomo, M; Valpiani, G; Salvatori, G; Gildone, A; Lorusso, V; Massari, L

2017-08-01

Intramedullary fixation is considered the most stable treatment for pertrochanteric fractures of the proximal femur and cut-out is one of the most frequent mechanical complications. In order to determine the role of clinical variables and radiological parameters in predicting the risk of this complication, we analysed the data pertaining to a group of patients recruited over the course of six years. A total of 571 patients were included in this study, which analysed the incidence of cut-out in relation to several clinical variables: age; gender; the AO Foundation and Orthopaedic Trauma Association classification system (AO/OTA); type of nail; cervical-diaphyseal angle; surgical wait times; anti-osteoporotic medication; complete post-operative weight bearing; and radiological parameters (namely the lag-screw position with respect to the femoral head, the Cleveland system, the tip-apex distance (TAD), and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance (CalTAD)). The incidence of cut-out across the sample was 5.6%, with a higher incidence in female patients. A significantly higher risk of this complication was correlated with lag-screw tip positioning in the upper part of the femoral head in the anteroposterior radiological view, posterior in the latero-lateral radiological view, and in the Cleveland peripheral zones. The tip-apex distance and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance were found to be highly significant predictors of the risk of cut-out at cut-offs of 30.7 mm and 37.3 mm, respectively, but the former appeared more reliable than the latter in predicting the occurrence of this complication. The tip-apex distance remains the most accurate predictor of cut-out, which is significantly greater above a cut-off of 30.7 mm. Cite this article: G. Caruso, M. Bonomo, G. Valpiani, G. Salvatori, A. Gildone, V. Lorusso, L. Massari. A six-year retrospective analysis of cut-out risk predictors in cephalomedullary nailing for pertrochanteric fractures: Can the tip-apex distance

Financial risks after the subprime crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Leiva Büchi

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The subprime financial crisis revealed some of risks that were not considered as a priority. Among others, a liquidityrisk is now considered as one of the main risks to work with by all institutions. Apart from that, it became obviousthat traditional risk management focused only on what was known and expected, ignoring analysis and testing eventswith low probability but high impact. Lastly, the subprime crisis left a number of lessons in relation to the regulationfor financial markets that must be considered when creating a new regulatory system.

Whitefish wars: Pangasius, politics and consumer confusion in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Little, D.C.; Bush, S.R.; Belton, B.; Nguyen Thanh Phuong,; Young, J.A.; Murray, F.J.

2012-01-01

Rapid growth in production of the farmed Vietnamese whitefish pangasius and its trade with the European Union has provoked criticism of the fish’s environmental, social and safety credentials by actors including WWF and Members of the European Parliament and associated negative media coverage. This

Emerging Requirements for U.S. Counterinsurgency: An Examination of the Insurgency in the Niger River Delta Region

Science.gov (United States)

2007-06-15

Economic, Social, Infrastructure and Information Operations SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons WHO World Health Organization WWF World Wildlife...order to be successful in even marginally conducting COIN in the NRD, either in partnership with the GoN and regional neighbors, or unilaterally in

Environmental Inventory Report. East St. Louis and Vicinity, Cahokia Canal Drainage Area, Madison and St. Clair Counties, Illinois. Volume 5.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-05-01

administers the Watershed Protection and Flood Protection Act, which provides for a partnership among the Federal Government, State governments, local...Burlene Goetz Roberta Price Michael Fischer Glenna Mel1 Al Relsing William Blumberg Thomas Loehr Robert Sudbring Rudolph Spanholtz ( ( XX-AIO C "" - WWF

Tools for Tomorrow’s Science and Technology Workforce: MATE’s 2006 ROV Competition Sets Students’ Sights on Ocean Observing Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-01

Underwater Robot Challenge was organized and supported by the City University of Hong Kong and the WWF (Worldwide Fund for Nature). THE POWER OF... PARTNERSHIP In addition to providing background information and resources for developing the mission scenario, working with Ocean.US and the ORION

A decision support system for mission-based ship routing considering multiple performance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, You; Frangopol, Dan M.; Sabatino, Samantha

2016-01-01

It is crucial to evaluate the risk associated with marine vessels subjected to inclement weather and sea conditions when developing a decision support system for ship routing. The generalized decision making framework developed in this paper performs a variety of tasks, including, but not limited to quantifying the flexural and fatigue performance of ship structures and employing multi-attribute utility theory to evaluate ship mission performance. A structural reliability approach is utilized to compute the probability of failure considering the uncertainties in structural capacity and load effects; specifically, effects of flexural and fatigue damage are investigated. The expected repair cost, cumulative fatigue damage, total travel time, and carbon dioxide emissions associated with ship routing are considered as consequences within the risk assessment procedure adopted in this paper. Additionally, the decision maker’s risk attitude is integrated into the presented approach by employing utility theory. The presented methodology can assist decision makers in making informed decisions concerning ship routing. In order to illustrate its capabilities the approach is applied to the Joint High-speed Sealift Ship. - Highlights: • Multi-attribute utility theory is proposed for the ship routing decision making. • Spectral-based fatigue damage and repair loss are computed. • Travel time and CO_2 emissions are incorporated within the decision making process. • The attitude of the decision maker has significant effects on the utility value.

Risk from environmental chemicals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

1982-01-01

The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

Risk Management in Logystics Chains

OpenAIRE

Butrin, Andrey; Vikulov, Vladimir

2013-01-01

Article is devoted to risk management of supply chain. The authors considered indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers.

CEZ considering building a power station in Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janoska, J.

2004-01-01

General Manager of Czech concern CEZ, Martin Roman expecting that his company would probably not succeed in tender for Slovenske elektrarne (SE) shares said for BBC that CEZ was considering the possibility of building a thermal power station in Slovakia that would use Polish coal. He made this statement in a time when an approval by the Slovak cabinet was the only missing step to complete the approval process of contractual documentation related to privatization of SE through Italian Enel. The cabinet only discusses the issue on Wednesday as Slovak Minister of Finance raised objections to its contents. Ivan Miklos asked for guarantees that the state would not be responsible for any future risks resulting from long term contracts concluded by SE

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

Multimethod prediction of child abuse risk in an at-risk sample of male intimate partner violence offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Christina M; Gracia, Enrique; Lila, Marisol

2016-10-01

The vast majority of research on child abuse potential has concentrated on women demonstrating varying levels of risk of perpetrating physical child abuse. In contrast, the current study considered factors predictive of physical child abuse potential in a group of 70 male intimate partner violence offenders, a group that would represent a likely high risk group. Elements of Social Information Processing theory were evaluated, including pre-existing schemas of empathy, anger, and attitudes approving of parent-child aggression considered as potential moderators of negative attributions of child behavior. To lend methodological rigor, the study also utilized multiple measures and multiple methods, including analog tasks, to predict child abuse risk. Contrary to expectations, findings did not support the role of anger independently predicting child abuse risk in this sample of men. However, preexisting beliefs approving of parent-child aggression, lower empathy, and more negative child behavior attributions independently predicted abuse potential; in addition, greater anger, poorer empathy, and more favorable attitudes toward parent-child aggression also exacerbated men's negative child attributions to further elevate their child abuse risk. Future work is encouraged to consider how factors commonly considered in women parallel or diverge from those observed to elevate child abuse risk in men of varying levels of risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

OpenAIRE

Fournier Susan; Srinivasan Shuba

2018-01-01

In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

Familial risks of breast and prostate cancers: does the definition of the at risk period matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Andreas; Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2010-03-01

'Being at familial risk' may have different connotations in studies on familial risk of cancer. The register-based definition of a family history considers individuals with an affected relative at familial risk independently of the family member's diagnostic time. Alternatively, the individuals are classified to be at familial risk only after the diagnosis date of their relative, relevant to clinical counselling and screening situations. The aim of this study was to compare familial breast and prostate cancer risks according to the two definitions. The nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database with information on cancers from 1958 to 2006 was used to calculate the hazard ratio of breast and prostate cancers according to family history using Cox regression. Family history was defined considering the number and type of affected relatives and the relative's diagnostic age, respectively. Individuals were considered at familial risk from their entry to the study or, alternatively, from the diagnostic time of the relative. Hazard ratios were equal whether individuals were considered at risk independent of the relative's diagnostic date or only after the relative's diagnostic date. These results indicate that studies on familial breast or prostate cancer risk which do not take the relative's diagnosis date into account are applicable to screening and clinical counselling situations. The estimates according to the register-based definition are based on larger numbers of patients, which may be crucial for analysis of small groups such as families of multiple cases. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing risk at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

1994-01-01

Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas

The Evaluation of Mutual Fund Performance in Lithuania Considering Risk and Timing Ability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irma Gavrilova

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Over the last decade, Lithuania has witnessed a growing interest in investment promoted by the need to successfully manage available funds. Direct investments (e. g. buying and selling stocks require a specific knowledge of investment instruments. Therefore, an ordinary investor finds investment in mutual funds easier and cheaper. Usually the most important questions to the investor include measuring the results of a fund and the quality of the actions performed by the fund managers. The article evaluates the rates of mutual fund performance and identifies their shortages. The methods for evaluating investment return according to the level of risk and timing ability of the fund managers are presented using the Sharpe ratio and Treynor-Mazuy model on the basis of which mutual funds in Lithuania are analyzed.Article in Lithuanian

Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fournier Susan

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. October 2009

Science.gov (United States)

2009-10-01

Nature ( WWF ) report Climate Solutions II warns that the world has only five years to switch to low-carbon reindustrialization and avoid the point of...the EC-funded DEEPEN Project has been announced. The project characterizes itself as "Europe’s leading research partnership for integrated

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. Summarizing Environmental Security Monthly Scanning July 2007 - December 2007

Science.gov (United States)

2007-12-01

seabed off the coast of the British Antarctic Territory. Greenpeace and WWF warned that Britain’s possible oil, gas, and mineral exploration in the...Kyoto Protocol’s Adaptation Fund to finance projects in developing countries; a Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, an addition of deforestation to a

Bioacoustic Characterization of the Mediterranean Sea SOLMAR

Science.gov (United States)

2004-09-01

software for data acquisition and display. An interesting and hopefully promising partnership has been recently established with the University of Pisa to...participation was partially funded by NURC. Flight time during the whale-watching campaign in the Ligurian Sea was funded by Coop. Battellieri and WWF - Liguria

SHORT COMMUNICATIONS, NOTES AND REPORTS Record of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Campbell Murn

50. SHORT COMMUNICATIONS, NOTES AND. REPORTS. Record of Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus from Mukundara Hills Tiger Reserve, Rajasthan,. India. Sailaja Nayak1*, Sunny Shah2 and Jimmy Borah2 .... Prey status and abundance in Mukundara Hills Tiger. Reserve. Technical Report, WWF-India. Rao, J.P. ...

Comparison results of forest cover mapping of Peninsular Malaysia using geospatial technology

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, Wan Abdul; Abd Rahman, Shukri B. Wan

2016-06-01

Climate change and global warming transpire due to several factors. Among them is deforestation which occur mostly in developing countries including Malaysia where forested areas are converted to other land use for tangible economic returns and to a smaller extent, as subsistence for local communities. As a cause for concern, efforts have been taken by the World Resource Institute (WRI) and World Wildlife Fund (WWF) to monitor forest loss using geospatial technology - interpreting time-based remote sensing imageries and producing statistics of forested areas lost since 2001. In Peninsular Malaysia, the Forestry Department of Peninsular Malaysia(FDPM) has conducted forest cover mapping for the region using the same technology since 2011, producing GIS maps for 2009-2010,2011-2012,2013-2014 and 2015. This paper focuses on the comparative study of the results generated from WRI,WWF and FDPM interpretations between 2010 and 2015, the methodologies used, the similarities and differences, challenges and recommendations for future enhancement of forest cover mapping technique.

Passing the panda standard: a TAD off the mark?

Science.gov (United States)

Belton, Ben; Murray, Francis; Young, James; Telfer, Trevor; Little, David C

2010-02-01

Tilapia, a tropical freshwater fish native to Africa, is an increasingly important global food commodity. The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), a major environmental nongovernmental organization, has established stakeholder dialogues to formulate farm certification standards that promote "responsible" culture practices. As a preface to its "tilapia aquaculture dialogue," the WWF for Nature commissioned a review of potential certification issues, later published as a peer-reviewed article. This article contends that both the review and the draft certification standards subsequently developed fail to adequately integrate critical factors governing the relative sustainability of tilapia production and thereby miss more significant issues related to resource-use efficiency and the appropriation of ecosystem space and services. This raises a distinct possibility that subsequent certification will promote intensive systems of tilapia production that are far less ecologically benign than existing widely practiced semi-intensive alternatives. Given the likely future significance of this emergent standard, it is contended that a more holistic approach to certification is essential.

A Study on the Optimal Generation Mix Based on Portfolio Theory with Considering the Basic Condition for Power Supply

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper presents a novel method to analyze the optimal generation mix based on portfolio theory with considering the basic condition for power supply, which means that electricity generation corresponds with load curve. The optimization of portfolio is integrated with the calculation of a capacity factor of each generation in order to satisfy the basic condition for power supply. Besides, each generation is considered to be an asset, and risks of the generation asset both in its operation period and construction period are considered. Environmental measures are evaluated through restriction of CO2 emissions, which are indicated by CO2 price. Numerical examples show the optimal generation mix according to risks such as the deviation of capacity factor of nuclear power or restriction of CO2 emissions, the possibility of introduction of clean coal technology (IGCC, CCS) or renewable energy, and so on. The results of this work will be possibly applied as setting the target of the generation mix for the future according to prospects of risks of each generation and restrictions of CO2 emissions.

Climatic risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

2005-04-01

The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

2017-01-01

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

Risk in social-cultural perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwee, S.L.

1980-01-01

The author intends to instigate a social-cultural risk theory. He finds the conception of risk is too objectively viewed and feels it should be considered more in relation to the subjective nature of human opinion and action. Objective and quantitative risk calculations on the basis of a theoretical model are possible and accountable, but the eventual assessment and decision making, which are based on these calculations, implicates subjective evaluation. An integral risk theory which takes into account both objective and subjective factors is considered. This can form a basis for a better social consideration and political decision making, an important point in the area of radiation hygiene. (C.F.)

Assessing the risks of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, Nigel

1986-01-01

The question how safe is safe is discussed. The way in which nuclear energy is presented in the context of the risks inherent in daily life is considered. Calculations based on actual reactor accidents (not Chernobyl) are then extrapolated for the proposed Sizewell-B reactor. Comparison is made between the risks of the nuclear industry and coal mining. Risk perception is considered and a risk index is constructed that allows for the fact that nuclear power continues to arouse public fear in spite of a good safety record. (UK)

The sum of the parts: can we really reduce carbon emissions through individual behaviour change?

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Lucy

2010-01-01

Individuals are increasingly being urged to 'do their bit' in the fight against climate change, with governments and pro-environmentalists insisting that the collective impact of small behaviour changes will result in a meaningful reduction in global carbon emissions. The following paper considers this debate, as well as offering personal contributions from two leading environmentalists: Dr Doug McKenzie-Mohr, environmental psychologist and author of Fostering Sustainable Behavior: Community-Based Social Marketing; and Dr Tom Crompton, change strategist for WWF and co-author of Meeting Environmental Challenges: The Role of Human Identity, who argues for the role of intrinsic value systems in achieving sustainable behaviour change. As well as considering the responsibility of the individual in mitigating climate change, the paper introduces the discipline of social marketing as an effective tool for facilitating individual behaviour change, drawing on evidence from the field to recommend the key characteristics of effective behaviour change programmes.

Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis César Almendarez-Hernández

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet's overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Wastewater Conveyance Feasibility Investigation, Cranston, RI, Volume 1 Main Report and Environmental Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

1995-05-01

the employment was in the manufacturing sector. The city’s constructive partnership with the State of Rhode Island and with private developers to...Sockanosett gravity interceptor and influent pumps at the WWF (after 2015) OPTION 2D * Proposed Brookdale gravity trunk sewer, 36 and 30-inch (2,300

Indonesia's Fires and Haze

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

WWF Malaysia provided information and advice about fires and haze impacts to the government and ..... Forest management and land-use practices in Sumatra and Kalimantan have evolved very ..... In principle, the study should compare the situation with and without haze. ...... Profit before taxation is 5 per cent of turnover.

Bentuang Karimun National Park: integrated conservation and development in Indonesia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soedjito, H.

1997-01-01

The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) has funded a project for the Bentuang Karimun National Park (BKNP) of the Department of Forestry of Indonesia [Project Bentuang Karimun PD 26/ 93 Rev. 1 (F)]. It started on November 1995 and is implemented by WWF Indonesia. The main objective is

No energy security without climate security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiller, M.

2006-06-01

WWF urges the G8 nations to embark on a serious global 'Climate and Energy Security Plan' akin in dimension to the Marshall plan after the Second World War. The plan would aim at dramatically augmenting energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources within the next five years

Risk management at university

OpenAIRE

Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

2013-01-01

This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

On the bilateral asymmetry during running and cycling - a review considering leg preference.

Science.gov (United States)

Carpes, Felipe P; Mota, Carlos B; Faria, Irvin E

2010-11-01

This review summarizes the effects of bilateral asymmetry on running and cycling performance and risk of injury in healthy subjects and the influence of leg preference. We define the term leg preference derived from lateral preference as representative of the choice for one side of the body to perform a motor action. Useful information is provided for biomechanical and physiological research and coaching with relevance to an understanding regarding the occurrence of lower limb asymmetry. To provide a synopsis of what is known about bilateral asymmetry in human running and cycling and its relationship to limb preference, especially in the context of competitive sport performance and risk of injury. Structured narrative review. The relationship between asymmetry and lower limb preference was reviewed using Medline(®), Sciencedirect(®), and Scopus(®) search engines considering studies published in English until June 2009. The environment characteristics may influence running asymmetries, which are more frequent in angular parameters. Environment characteristics are related to ground irregularities requiring compensatory movements changing the mechanical workload on joints and bones, which may influence asymmetries in biomechanical parameters between lower limbs. The relationship between asymmetry and injury risk should be assessed with caution since running speed may influence asymmetry in injured and non-injured subjects who often show similar asymmetry levels. Symmetry can be improved with increasing running speed. In addition to running speed, coaches and athletes interested in minimizing lateral difference should consider a training regime aimed at correcting asymmetry which may negatively affect running technique by influencing the compensatory movements that an athlete usually performs. During cycling, bilateral differences are frequently found and vary with the competitive situation, pedaling cadence, exercise intensity and exercise duration. Regardless of

Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator). Web tool for fostering of risk literacy. Set of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitsui, Seiichiro

2003-06-01

In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)

Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubeddu, Francesca

2015-01-01

A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-11-01

Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conservation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Noteboom, H.P.

1985-01-01

The IUCN/WWF Plants Conservation Programme 1984 — 1985. World Wildlife Fund chose plants to be the subject of their fund-raising campaign in the period 1984 — 1985. The objectives were to: 1. Use information techniques to achieve the conservation objectives of the Plants Programme – to save plants;

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

An Optimization Method for Condition Based Maintenance of Aircraft Fleet Considering Prognostics Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Feng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available An optimization method for condition based maintenance (CBM of aircraft fleet considering prognostics uncertainty is proposed. The CBM and dispatch process of aircraft fleet is analyzed first, and the alternative strategy sets for single aircraft are given. Then, the optimization problem of fleet CBM with lower maintenance cost and dispatch risk is translated to the combinatorial optimization problem of single aircraft strategy. Remain useful life (RUL distribution of the key line replaceable Module (LRM has been transformed into the failure probability of the aircraft and the fleet health status matrix is established. And the calculation method of the costs and risks for mission based on health status matrix and maintenance matrix is given. Further, an optimization method for fleet dispatch and CBM under acceptable risk is proposed based on an improved genetic algorithm. Finally, a fleet of 10 aircrafts is studied to verify the proposed method. The results shows that it could realize optimization and control of the aircraft fleet oriented to mission success.

Underground Economics for Vulnerability Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Allodi, L.

The estimation of vulnerability risk is at the core of any IT security management strategy. Among technical and infrastructural metrics of risk, attacker economics represent an emerging new aspect that several risk assessment methodologies propose to consider (e.g., based on game theory). Yet the

Risk Aversion and Emotions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.

2013-01-01

Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Risk concept and risk management in the field of power installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stein, Manfred; Barbulescu, Christiana; Anastasiu, Dan; Ionescu, Dumitru Cezar; Iliescu-Saligny, Paul; Iordache, Vasile

1996-01-01

The paper presents several opinions concerning general as well as specific aspects related to the risk management and the use of this concept in the field of power generation. Assessment possibilities of disturbing phenomena are analyzed including severe events leading to failures in power installations. Circumstances of occurring of such events are considered. This paper contains 4 sections. In the introduction the definition of the concept of risk is given. Risk is thus related to both events of a distinct nature with potentially dangerous consequences and events occurring in current operation of installations of different types. The risk notion is as important as other probabilistic indicators characterizing the power installation operation, i.e. availability, reliability, maintenance, etc. The section 2 approaches the concept of risk and argues for the necessity of quantifying it. Two probabilistic indicators are introduced, namely, the occurring probability of a disturbing event and the occurring frequency. To establish an algorithm of risk evaluation the risk notion should be dissociated into two components, the 'intrinsic' or 'initial' risk and the 'associated' risk. In turn, the latter could be divided into two types of risks, namely, the risk of an extant sustaining factor and the risk characterizing the exposure to the effects of the considered events. Applications of these notions for the cases of nuclear accidents, urban electricity or heating breakdown, energy supply breakdown in chemical facilities and others are given. The third section deals with risk management in power sector. Three objectives are here taken into account, i.e., ensuring the safety in operation of adopted systems, ensuring the safety of these systems from the consumers' standpoints and ensuring the environment protection. Examples for using the concepts introduced in case of electrical power stations or energy supply systems are given

Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-07-01

The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

Calculating Risk: Radiation and Chernobyl.

Science.gov (United States)

Gale, Robert Peter

1987-01-01

Considers who is at risk in a disaster such as Chernobyl. Assesses the difficulty in translating information regarding radiation to the public and in determining the acceptability of technological risks. (NKA)

Risk informed life cycle plant design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, Ralph S. III; Nutt, Mark M.

2003-01-01

Many facility life cycle activities including design, construction, fabrication, inspection and maintenance are evolving from a deterministic to a risk-informed basis. The risk informed approach uses probabilistic methods to evaluate the contribution of individual system components to total system performance. Total system performance considers both safety and cost considerations including system failure, reliability, and availability. By necessity, a risk-informed approach considers both the component's life cycle and the life cycle of the system. In the nuclear industry, risk-informed approaches, namely probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), have become a standard tool used to evaluate the safety of nuclear power plants. Recent studies pertaining to advanced reactor development have indicated that these new power plants must provide enhanced safety over existing nuclear facilities and be cost-competitive with other energy sources. Risk-informed approaches, beyond traditional PRA, offer the opportunity to optimize design while considering the total life cycle of the plant in order to realize these goals. The use of risk-informed design approaches in the nuclear industry is only beginning, with recent promulgation of risk-informed regulations and proposals for risk-informed codes. This paper briefly summarizes the current state of affairs regarding the use of risk-informed approaches in design. Key points to fully realize the benefit of applying a risk-informed approach to nuclear power plant design are then presented. These points are equally applicable to non-nuclear facilities where optimization for cost competitiveness and/or safety is desired. (author)

RISK DEFINITION IN CIVIL UNMANNED AVIATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volodymyr Kharchenko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: The risks in unmanned civil aviation are considered as one of the most important. In the article is proved applicability of ensuring the flight safety of aircraft and considered the basic risks of manned civil aviation. Methods: Analyzed statistical data on aviation accidents, organized probabilities distribution of aviation accidents for manned and unmanned civil aviation to identify factors that influence the occurrence of emergency situations in manned and unmanned aviation. Results: We proposed typology of risk components in civil aviation and systematized methods and techniques to reduce risks. Over the analogies defined possible risks, their causes and remedies in civil unmanned aircraft. Weight coefficients distribution was justified between risk types for development of recommendations on risk management in unmanned civil aviation. Discussion: We found that the most probable risk in manned civil aviation is the human factor, organization of air traffic control, design flaws of unmanned aviation system as a whole, as well as maintenance of unmanned aviation system.

Nanofiltration and nanostructured membranes--should they be considered nanotechnology or not?

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Nicole C; van der Bruggen, Bart; Keuter, Volkmar; Luis, Patricia; Melin, Thomas; Pronk, Wouter; Reisewitz, Robert; Rickerby, David; Rios, Gilbert M; Wennekes, Wilco; Nowack, Bernd

2012-04-15

Nanofiltration is frequently associated with nanotechnology - obviously because of its name. However, the term "nano" in nanofiltration refers - according to the definition of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) - to the size of the particles rejected and not to a nanostructure as defined by the International Organisation of Standardisation (ISO) in the membrane. Evidently, the approach to standardisation of materials differs significantly between membrane technology and nanotechnology which leads to considerable confusion and inconsistent use of the terminology. There are membranes that can be unambiguously attributed to both membrane technology and nanotechnology such as those that are functionalized with nanoparticles, while the classification of hitherto considered to be conventional membranes as nanostructured material is questionable. A driving force behind the efforts to define nanomaterials is not least the urgent need for the regulation of the use of nanomaterials. Since risk estimation is the basis for nanotechnology legislation, the risk associated with nanomaterials should also be reflected in the underlying standards and definitions. This paper discusses the impacts of the recent attempts to define nanomaterials on membrane terminology in the light of risk estimations and the need for regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bran hydration and physical treatments improve the bread-baking quality of whole grain wheat flour

Science.gov (United States)

Fine and coarse bran particles of a hard red and a hard white wheat were used to study the influences of bran hydration and physical treatments such as autoclaving and freezing as well as their combinations on the dough properties and bread-baking quality of whole grain wheat flour (WWF). For both h...

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Children and Pesticides: New Approach to Considering Risk Is Partly in Place. Report to Congressional Requesters.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrich, Janet

The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 (FQPA) requires that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which regulates the use of pesticides at the federal level, reevaluate the amounts of pesticide residues allowed on or in food. The EPA immediately began efforts to consider the additional safety factor for children, using available methods and…

From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

2002-01-01

No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

2002-01-01

No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

2009-01-01

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Outlook for risk assessment and risk-informed regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.; Breutel, C.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

2000-01-01

The Western nuclear regulatory process has evolved from the initial engineering judgment' framework of the 1960's, the prescriptive deterministic requirements of the 1970s, the transition years of the 1980s, to the present day movement toward risk-informed approaches. In this paper, a short overview of the historic development of safety regulation is provided. The critique of traditional regulatory practice will be summarized and the features of risk-informed regulation will be discussed. The implementation of risk-informed regulation is considered on the basis of general legal principles common to many member states of the NEA and IAEA. In a process to risk-inform regulation, principles such as equal treatment, proportionality of rules and predictability of administrative action are found to be important. (author)

[Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

2015-12-01

To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

Managing risk in a challenging financial environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufman, Kenneth

2008-08-01

Five strategies can help hospital financial leaders balance their organizations' financial and risk positions: Understand the hospital's financial condition; Determine the desired level of risk; Consider total risk; Use a portfolio approach; Explore best-case/worst-case scenarios to measure risk.

Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

2011-01-01

When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

Portfolio Allocation Subject to Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogerio de Deus Oliveira

2003-12-01

Full Text Available Credit Risk is an important dimension to be considered in the risk management procedures of financial institutions. Is a particularly useful in emerging markets where default rates on bank loan products are usually high. It is usually calculated through highly costly Monte Carlo simulations which consider different stochastic factors driving the uncertainly associated to the borrowers liabilities. In this paper, under some restrictions, we drive closed form formulas for the probability distributions of default rates of bank loans products involving a big number of clients. This allows us to quickly obtain the credit risk of such products. Moreover, using these probability distributions, we solve the problem of optimal portfolio allocation under default risk.

Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

1982-10-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

ASSESSMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL MECHANISMS OF INFLUENCE IN SOCIAL ADVERTISING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiyana B. Kolyshkina

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The main aim of the research is to estimate the efficiency of psychological influence mechanisms in social advertising. Numerous psychological, sociological, culturological studies, devoted to this issue, do not answer the question which mechanisms will be efficient and will lead to the expected reaction of a recipient. The correlation between the psychological influence methods and the goals set by the creators is especially important for social advertising, because its efficiency can’t be measured by economic indicators as it occurs in commercial advertising. In addition, it should be remembered that for guaranteeing of efficiency in this kind of advertising one need to take into account such special features of a recipient as their beliefs and sets. The study concentrates on the comparison of psychological influence mechanisms, used in World Wildlife Fund (WWF social advertising. Its creators use a great number of methods. But as practice shows us by no means all of them lead to the planned results. The study justifies, that the efficiency of advertising influence should be estimated by such indicators as the willingness of a recipient to take part in WWF programs (conative component and their emotional response (affective component. Consequently, it has been established that the behaviour of a recipient does not depend on a chosen creative strategy’s type, which is used by the creators. The willingness of a recipient to take part in the programs, advertised by WWF, is estimated by the content of their social and psychological sets (attitudes. The displayed results prove that one need to refuse a cruel and shocking way of advertising, which causes people’s negative emotions. It is corroborated by experiments that social advertising which defends wild nature can be efficient on condition that it gives a recipient an opportunity to actualize their own social and psychological sets.

National Program of Inspection of Dams. Volume 1. Report of the Chief of Engineers on the National Program of Inspection of Dams. Appendices A-D

Science.gov (United States)

1975-05-01

OT) A-3 MsmmmMmsmmmmm^*M^^ wwF !^*&*!™wp*^^^^^^ ^^^ 16 J7. 20 27 22 23 24. 2S. Is there any requirement for periodic renewal of license or... partnership , business trust, corporation, or company. 1006. "Alterations", "repairs", or either of them, mean only such alterations or repairs as

Windows on the Wild: Biodiversity Basics. An Educator's Guide to Exploring the Web of Life [and] Student Book.

Science.gov (United States)

World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC.

This guide is designed to provide ideas on how to integrate biodiversity into teaching at many levels in both formal and informal settings. These curriculum materials are part of the World Wildlife Fund's (WWF) environmental education program called Windows on the Wild (WOW). WOW incorporates current data from projects around the world and draws…

Läänemere riigid teevad ülivähe mere kaitsmiseks / Ülo Ignats

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Ignats, Ülo, 1951-2011

2008-01-01

Rootsis on puhkenud arutelu kalavarude üle Rootsi rannikuvetes ja Läänemeres. Jälle lubas Euroopa Liit püüda tunduvalt rohkem kala, kui teadlased soovitavad. Ühe maailma suurema looduskaitseorganisatsiooni World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) koostatud teravast hinnangust - Baltic Sea Scorecard - Läänemereriikide ja Euroopa Liidu senisele Läänemerepoliitikale

Cardiovascular risk prediction in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dis, van S.J.

2011-01-01

Background: In clinical practice, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk prediction functions and charts are used to identify persons at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), who are considered eligible for drug treatment of elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol. These

Business analysis of generation considering environmental opportunities; Analise de negocios de geracao considerando oportunidades ambientais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cyrillo, Ivo Ordonha [Universidade de Sao Paulo (ENERQ/USP), SP (Brazil). Centro de Estudos em Regulacao e Qualidade de Energia; Pelegrini, Marcelo A.; Gemignani, Matheus M.F.

2008-07-01

The project 'Business's Power Generation Evaluation Considering Environmental Opportunities' is about developing a methodology to analyze feasibility of new power generation factory from the point of view of the investor, examining the technical, economic-financial, risk, regulatory, social and environmental aspects. The opportunities arising from Kyoto Protocol were added in feasibility's analysis. (author)

Back to basics--just how much should a risk manager know about risk financing?

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Vivian B

2011-01-01

Whether directly involved in development and implementation of the organization's risk financing program or not, risk management professionals, at the very least, need to be familiar with and understand the various risk financing strategies available to address all areas of exposure. This article addresses the types of coverages and risk financing options that should be considered when developing a comprehensive risk-financing program, and why it is important for risk management professionals to have some knowledge about these products, in order for their true value to be fully appreciated. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Science.gov (United States)

Bayramov, A. A.

In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

Analysis of an Automated Vehicle Routing Problem in Logistics considering Path Interruption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The application of automated vehicles in logistics can efficiently reduce the cost of logistics and reduce the potential risks in the last mile. Considering the path restriction in the initial stage of the application of automated vehicles in logistics, the conventional model for a vehicle routing problem (VRP is modified. Thus, the automated vehicle routing problem with time windows (AVRPTW model considering path interruption is established. Additionally, an improved particle swarm optimisation (PSO algorithm is designed to solve this problem. Finally, a case study is undertaken to test the validity of the model and the algorithm. Four automated vehicles are designated to execute all delivery tasks required by 25 stores. Capacities of all of the automated vehicles are almost fully utilised. It is of considerable significance for the promotion of automated vehicles in last-mile situations to develop such research into real problems arising in the initial period.

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Security assessment in harbours: parameters to be considered

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romero Faz, D.; Camarero Orive, A.

2016-07-01

The ports are the main node in the supply chain and freight transportation. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 marked a turning point in global security. Following this event, and from then on, there is a widespread fear of an attack on commercial ports. The development of the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the implementation of the measures derived from it, have significantly improved security at port facilities. However, the experience in recent decades indicates the need for adjustments in the security assessment, in order to improve risk assessment, which is sometimes either underestimated or overestimated. As a first result of the investigation, new parameters for assessing security are proposed considering new aspects on the basis of an analysis of the main methodologies specific to port facilities, the analysis of surveys of the responsible managers for the security of the Spanish port system, and the analysis of the security statistics obtained through security forces. (Author)

Measuring the risk of an Iranian banking system using Value at Risk (VaR Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sudabeh Morshedian Rafiee

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Measuring risk of financial institutes and banks plays an important role on managing them. Recent financial turmoil in United States banking system has motivated banking industry to monitor risk factors more closely. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the risk of some private banks in Iran called Bank Mellat using Value at Risk (VaR method. The proposed study collects the necessary information for the fiscal year of 2010 and analyses them using regression analysis. The study divides the financial data into two groups where the financial data of the first half of year is considered in the first group and the remaining information for the second half of year 2010 is considered in the second group. The implementation of VaR method indicates that financial risks increase during the time horizon. The study also uses linear regression method where independent variable is time, dependent variable is the financial risk, and the results confirm what we have found in the previous part of the survey.

Selection of tolerable risk criteria for dam safety decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, N.M.; Hartford, D.N.D.; MacDonald, T.F.

1994-01-01

Risk assessment has received increasing attention in recent years as a means of aiding decision making on dams by providing systematic and rational methods for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Risk assessment is controversial and decisions affecting risk to life are the most controversial. Tolerable criteria, based on the risks that society is prepared to accept in order to avoid excessive costs, set bounds within which risk-based decisions may be made. The components of risk associated with dam safety are addressed on an individual basis and criteria established for each component, thereby permitting flexibility in the balance between component risk and avoiding the problems of placing a monetary value on life. The guiding principle of individual risk is that dams do not impose intolerable risks on any individual. A risk to life of 1 in 10 4 per annum is generally considered the maximum tolerable risk. When considering societal risk, the safety of a dam should be proportional to the consequences of its failure. Risks of financial losses beyond the corporation's ability to finance should be so low as to be considered negligible. 17 refs., 3 figs

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johanna Lundström

Full Text Available A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV, a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1 only considering present values, (2 giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3 applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4 only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanju Zhou

Full Text Available This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

Proceedings of Regional Asia Pacific Defence Environmental Workshop Held in Darwin, Australia on 11-14 May 1998 (Environmental Security Series Number 5)

Science.gov (United States)

1998-05-01

actions being undertaken to combat these issues, and the mutual benefits obtained through the partnership arrangement. The Conference was also attended...1993 (Oxford: Oxford University Press) Butts, Kent Hughes (1994) Environmental security: a partnership for peace. Strategic Studies Institute...GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS (NGOs) Mr. Michael Rae Program Leader-Resource Conservation World Wide Fund For Nature-Australia ( WWF -Australia

RISK MANAGEMENT OF GERMAN FRUIT PRODUCERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annkatrin PORSCH

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Horticultural farms in Germany face substantial business risks. However, fruit farms often struggle to implement appropriate risk management processes, and the risk management literature widely has ignored this farm type. The aim of the study was to improve the assessment of risks by farmers and the choice of suitable risk management instruments. Therefore, a risk management process based on subjective probabilities and suitable for small and medium-sized farms was developed, considering the specific needs of family run businesses. An online survey was conducted to achieve a comprehensive view of the risk perception and risk management practices of German fruit producers. Price and production risks are the most relevant risk categories for fruit farmers. However, among single risk sources, those in the people risk category were seen as the most important. Results show significant interactions among risk categories and a significant correlation between loss experience and the rating of risk categories. The assumption that risk averse farmers generally rate risks higher than risk neutral or risk seeking farmers cannot be confirmed. Diversification seems to be the most important risk management instrument for many fruit producers, especially diversification of marketing channels, farm income, and production activities. Further research should focus on the apparent inconsistency between the satisfaction with instruments reported by farmers and the actual implementation of many of them (e.g., hail insurance and anti-hail net. Furthermore, there is a need for research, to develop decision models considering the interactions of risks and risk management instruments, loss experience and risk seeking attitudes.

CONSIDERING ANTI-PIRACY SHIP SECURITY: CITADEL DESIGN AND USE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Carral

2015-09-01

Full Text Available As piracy continues to pose a threat to the shipping industry, a number of measures for protecting ships, cargo and crew will need to be implemented. Along with other steps, such as deploying military rescue teams, securing the crew within a ship’s citadel has proved to be a highly effective form of self-protection against hostage-taking by pirates. From a design standpoint, aspects that should be considered include the location and dimensions of the citadel, the maximum time crew can stay within it and the specific requirements for various elements of the ship or citadel equipment. Exploiting data on pirate attacks recently occurring in High Risk Areas, this article analyses the design and use of the citadel as a self-protection measure against piracy. As a conclusion, various requirements for these structures are recommended.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

2005-01-01

Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

Risk and Derivative Price

OpenAIRE

Yusuke Osaki

2007-01-01

We consider an asset market traded three types of assets: the risk–free asset, the market portfolio and derivatives written on the market portfolio return. We determine a sufficient condition to guarantee that noise risk monotonically changes their derivatives. The condition is that Arrow–Pratt absolute risk aversion is decreasing and convex.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugino, Hideharu; Sakagami, Masaharu; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Korenaga, Mariko

2011-01-01

In the area in front of Nankai trough, tsunami wave height may increase if tsunamis attacking from some wave sources overlap because of time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough. To evaluation tsunami risk of the important facilities located in front of Nankai trough, we proposed the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering uncertainty on time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough and we evaluated the influence that the time-lag gave to tsunami hazard at the some representative points. (author)

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

Risks of accidents and their consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauvenet, A.

1977-01-01

The idea of risk calls out both the probability of occurrence of a damageable event and the damage intensity. Probability calculus was originated in the 17th century; PASCAL, its initiator, immediately considered its application to everyday life. Presently two trends are to be observed: the former will apply probability calculus, and the game theory that follows, to decision-making in the technical, economical or management fields; the latter remains subjective, close to ancestral fears, hardly pervaded with the principles of risk rationalization. A number of original probabilitic studies have been devoted to the nuclear field showing that nuclear risks just as the collective risks experienced by man are lower than individual risks yet little considered by up-to-date mass media. It is desirable that society should be clearly aware of these problems. Such a long-term problem goes through youth education and public information [fr

Support to triage and public risk perception considering long-term response to a Cs-137 radiological dispersive device scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Cristiane Ps; Souza, Cláudio J; Camerini, Eduardo Sn; Alves, Isabela S; Vital, Hélio C; Healy, Matthew Jf; Ramos De Andrade, Edson

2018-01-01

A radiological dispersive device (RDD) spreads radioactive material, complicates the treatment of physical injuries, raises cancer risk, and induces disproportionate fear. Simulating such an event enables more effective and efficient utilization of the triage and treatment resources of staff, facilities, and space. Fast simulation can give detail on events in progress or future events. The resources for triage and treatment of contaminated trauma victims can differ for pure exposure individuals, while discouraging the "worried well" from presenting in the crisis phase by media announcement would relieve pressure on hospital facilities. The proposed methodology integrates capabilities from different platforms in a convergent way composed of three phases: (a) scenario simulation, (b) data generation, and (c) risk assessment for triage focused on follow-up epidemiological assessment. Simulations typically indicate that most of the affected population does not require immediate medical assistance. Medical triage for the few severely injured and the radiological triage to diminish the contamination with radioactivity will always be the priority. For this study, however, higher priorities should be given to individuals from radiological "warm" and "hot" zones as required by risk criteria. The proposed methodology could thus help to (a) filter and reduce the number of individuals to be attended, (b) optimize the prioritization of medical care, (c) reduce or prepare for future costs, (d) effectively locate the operational triage site to avoid possible contamination on the main facility, and (e) provide the scientific data needed to develop an adequate approach to risk and its proper communication.

Benefits and risks of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faessler, A.

1982-01-01

This popular report tries to compare advantages and risks of nuclear energy to one another. In comparison with other risks the author considers the remaining risk of nuclear energy acceptable. The main condition of a further development is, however, a political decision borne by the majority of the population. (UA) [de

A dynamic approach for the impact of a toxic gas dispersion hazard considering human behaviour and dispersion modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Maragkos, Georgios; Beji, Tarek; Merci, Bart

2016-11-15

The release of toxic gases due to natural/industrial accidents or terrorist attacks in populated areas can have tragic consequences. To prevent and evaluate the effects of these disasters different approaches and modelling tools have been introduced in the literature. These instruments are valuable tools for risk managers doing risk assessment of threatened areas. Despite the significant improvements in hazard assessment in case of toxic gas dispersion, these analyses do not generally include the impact of human behaviour and people movement during emergencies. This work aims at providing an approach which considers both modelling of gas dispersion and evacuation movement in order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment for disasters involving toxic gases. The approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including a ship releasing Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on a crowd attending a music festival. The difference between the results obtained with existing static methods (people do not move) and a dynamic approach (people move away from the danger) which considers people movement with different degrees of sophistication (either a simple linear path or more complex behavioural modelling) is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

2009-01-01

modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

Statistics and risk philosophy in human activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Failla, L.

1983-01-01

Two leading interpretations of the use of statistics exist, the first one considering statistics as a physical law regulating the phenomena studied, and the other considering statistics as a method allowing to achieve exhaustive knowledge of the phenomena. The Author chooses the second theory, applies this concept of statistics to the risk involved in human activities and discusses the different kinds of risk in this field. The Author distinguishes between the risk that can be eliminated or at least reduced, and the risk inherent in the activity itself, that can never be completely eliminated -unless the activity is suppressed-; yet, also this kind of risk can be kept under control. Furthermore, she distinguishes between risks that can or cannot be foreseen. The Author supports the theory according to which the risk foreseen must be prevented through up-to-date techniques: this should be done coherently with the aim of the activity but independently of the economic cost. The theory considering risk probability as a physical law is mainly based on events happened in the past: it uses the occurrence probability as a law. This theory accepts the statistical risk and estimates its costs, including the ''human cost''. The Author examines the different statistical possibilities to study this specific phenomenon: so, the possibility to avoid the risks may arise along with -last but not least- the opportunity to eliminate or reduce the damage connected. On the contrary, statistics used as a physical law implies the acceptable of a given amount of risk compared with the cost of improving the technical conditions required to eliminate damages. In the end, a practical example of this theory is described

Considering Student Coaching

Science.gov (United States)

Keen, James P.

2014-01-01

What does student coaching involve and what considerations make sense in deciding to engage an outside contractor to provide personal coaching? The author explores coaching in light of his own professional experience and uses this reflection as a platform from which to consider the pros and cons of student coaching when deciding whether to choose…

Acute neurological symptoms during hypobaric exposure: consider cerebral air embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Weenink, Robert P; Hollmann, Markus W; van Hulst, Robert A

2012-11-01

Cerebral arterial gas embolism (CAGE) is well known as a complication of invasive medical procedures and as a risk in diving and submarine escape. In the underwater environment, CAGE is caused by trapped air, which expands and leads to lung vessel rupture when ambient pressure decreases during ascent. Pressure decrease also occurs during hypobaric activities such as flying and, therefore, CAGE may theoretically be a risk in hypobaric exposure. We reviewed the available literature on this subject. Identified were 12 cases of CAGE due to hypobaric exposure. Based on these cases, we discuss pathophysiology, diagnosis, and treatment of CAGE due to hypobaric exposure. The low and slow pressure decrease during most hypobaric activities (as opposed to diving) account for the low incidence of CAGE during these exposures and suggest that severe air trapping must be present to cause barotrauma. This is also suggested by the large prevalence of air filled cysts in the case reports reviewed. We recommend considering CAGE in all patients presenting with acute central neurological injury during or shortly after pressure decrease such as flying. A CT scan of head and chest should be performed in these patients. Treatment with hyperbaric oxygen therapy should be initiated as soon as possible in cases of proven or probable CAGE.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

Public opinion about biofuels: The interplay between party identification and risk/benefit perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fung, Timothy K.F.; Choi, Doo Hun; Scheufele, Dietram A.; Shaw, Bret R.

2014-01-01

Using an experiment embedded within a representative survey, this study examined the interactive effect of party identification and risk/benefit perception on public opinion about biofuels. Democrats tended to be more supportive of biofuels than Republicans. However, the effect of party identification on opinion about biofuels varied when individuals considered the risk/benefit of biofuels in different domains. Individuals who reported greater affiliation with the Democratic Party were likely to support funding biofuels research when primed with the economic risks or the social/ethical benefits of biofuels. For those who considered the social/ethical benefits of biofuels, more self-identified Democrats were likely to support biofuels production and use. However, more self-identified Democrats were less supportive of biofuels production and use when they considered the political risks of biofuels. Implications are discussed. - Highlights: • We examined public opinion about biofuels policies. • Effect of risk/benefit perception varied across respondents' party identification. • Democrats favored more research when considering economic risks or social benefits. • Democrats favored biofuels more when considering social benefits. • Democrats favored biofuels less when considering political risks

Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood

Development of Optimization method about Capital Structure and Senior-Sub Structure by considering Project-Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Kawamoto, Shigeru; Ikeda, Yuichi; Fukui, Chihiro; Tateshita, Fumihiko

Private finance initiative is a business scheme that materializes social infrastructure and public services by utilizing private-sector resources. In this paper we propose a new method to optimize capital structure, which is the ratio of capital to debt, and senior-sub structure, which is the ratio of senior loan to subordinated loan, for private finance initiative. We make the quantitative analysis of a private finance initiative's project using the proposed method. We analyze trade-off structure between risk and return in the project, and optimize capital structure and senior-sub structure. The method we propose helps to improve financial stability of the project, and to make a fund raising plan that is expected to be reasonable for project sponsor and moneylender.

MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vona Mate

2014-07-01

Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

Risk management in nuclear power social aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sappa, N.N.

1996-01-01

Problems connected with safety evaluation and risk management during operation of nuclear power installations are considered. Social aspects of risk assessment of enterprises with increased danger are discussed

Minarchy Considered

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard A Garner

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Whilst some defenders of the minimal, limited state or government hold that the state is “a necessary evil,” others would consider that this claim that the state is evil concedes too much ground to anarchists. In this article I intend to discuss the views of some who believe that government is a good thing, and their arguments for supporting this position. My main conclusions will be that, in each case, the proponents of a minimal state, or “minarchy,” fail to justify as much as what they call government, and so fail to oppose anarchism, or absences of what they call government.

The prospects for whole-farm risk management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2002-01-01

Whole-farm risk management approaches, i.e. approaches in which multiple risks and farm activities are considered simultaneously, seem more efficient than ‘single risk and commodity strategies’. This paper first discusses the results of a questionnaire survey among livestock and arable farmers in

The Supply Chain Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Skitsko Volodymyr I.; Voynikov Mykola Yu.

2018-01-01

The article considers current approaches of risk-management in supply chains, the main steps of the risk management process are analyzed and detailed both for a separate enterprise – participant of supply chain, for the supply chain in general, and for the Beer game, based on the international risk management standards. The article provides a way to assess the risks of the «producer» in the Beer game according to the three strategies of its behavior, which presumably can correspond to differe...

RISKS MANAGEMENT: NEW LITERATURE REVIEW

OpenAIRE

Ennouri Wissem

2013-01-01

The complexity of the industrial activities and the important mass of flows crossing the supply chain promotes the emergence of risks that must be considered in the decision process. For this reason, we have developed this paper to clarify the basics of risk management through a short new suggestion of literature review for risk management. Our justification of this attempt is that this area is the most discussed in our days and it is impossible to present all definition of the risk concept, ...

Certification and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villanueva Fernandez, M.

2015-01-01

Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

Credit Risk Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lando, David

Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

Do we actually understand how people perceive risk?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bochud, Francois O.

2016-11-01

The best way to understand how people perceive radiation risk is to not consider them as fundamentally different from experts, but rather, to consider how we, as experts, naturally react when we are confronted with a risk and how we like to be treated. Do we have to alter our language to make it understandable by members of the public?.

Cooperative game analysis of a supply chain with one risk-neutral supplier and two risk-averse retailers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changwen Li

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper considers a two-echelon supply chain composed of one risk-neutral supplier and two risk-averse retailers. The retailers obtain production from the supplier and sell them to the market. Based on the cooperative game theory, the paper studies the appropriate profit allocation of the supply chain when all the players cooperate with each other, where the two retailers face a price-sensitive stochastic demand. The two retailers can either determine their retail prices independently, or decide whether or not to cooperate with each other. Design/methodology/approach: To allocate the system-wide profit among upstream risk-neutral suppliers and two risk-averse downstream retailers, this paper constructed a cooperative game model, considered as the supermodularity of the characteristic function and the Shapley value of the game. Findings and Originality/value: By analyzing the construction’s cooperative game model, the results show that the profit of the whole supply chain is the highest in the grand coalition structure. This paper also shows that the core of our cooperative game is nonempty, and has the supermodularity property. Based on this, we have computed the Shapley value-based profit allocation for the whole supply chain in a fair manner. Originality/value: Although there are a lot of literature examined risk aversion in a supply chain, but they did not consider using cooperative game to study this problem. This the first study is in the context of a supply chain with risk aversion problem.

Offshore wind energy : balancing risk and reward

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nerland, C.

2010-01-01

Offshore wind energy developments are expected to increase as the demand for renewable energy sources grows. This poster presentation described a method of balancing risk and reward in offshore wind energy projects. The method was based on risk assessment strategies used by the oil and gas industry. The dedicated framework considered schedules; budgets; performance; and operating and maintenance costs. A value chain assessment method was used to optimize the balance between risk and reward by evaluating uncertainties and risk related to each project element and its relationship to other elements within an integrated dynamic model designed to determine the net present value of a project. The decision-making criteria included the RISKEX risk expenditure strategy designed to consider the balance between risk exposure, capital expenditures, and operational expenditures in relation to the statistical cost of unplanned repairs, and lost production capacity. A case study of a large offshore wind farm was used to demonstrate the method. tabs., figs.

Environmental pollution risk and insurance

OpenAIRE

Fragnelli, Vito; Marina, Maria Erminia

2002-01-01

We consider environmental risks that are evaluated too much heavy for a single insurance company, but they can be insured by n companies which a premium is assigned to.This is precisely the Italian scenario where a pool of companies co-insures these risks.Under a game theoretic approach we start by analyzing how they should split the risk and the premium in order to be better off. Under suitable hypotheses, there exists an optimal decomposition of the risk, that allow us to define a cooperati...

Risk control and the minimum significant risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1996-01-01

Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

Single and multiple objective biomass-to-biofuel supply chain optimization considering environmental impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Valles Sosa, Claudia Evangelina

respond to these new challenges, the Modified Multiple Objective Evolutionary Algorithm for the design optimization of a biomass to bio-refinery logistic system that considers the simultaneous maximization of the total profit and the minimization of three environmental impacts is presented. Sustainability balances economic, social and environmental goals and objectives. There exist several works in the literature that have considered economic and environmental objectives for the presented supply chain problem. However, there is a lack of research performed in the social aspect of a sustainable logistics system. This work proposes a methodology to integrate social aspect assessment, based on employment creation. Finally, most of the assessment methodologies considered in the literature only contemplate deterministic values, when in realistic situations uncertainties in the supply chain are present. In this work, Value-at-Risk, an advanced risk measure commonly used in portfolio optimization is included to consider the uncertainties in biofuel prices, among the others.

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

Spent fuel transport in Romania by road: An approach considering safety, risk and radiological consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vieru, G.

2001-01-01

The transport of high-level radioactive wastes, involving Type B packages, is a part of the safety of the Romanian waste management programme and the overall aim of this activity is to promote the safe transport of radioactive materials in Romania. The paper presents a safety case analysis of the transport of a single spent fuel CANDU bundle, using a Romanian built Type B package, from the CANDU type nuclear power plant Cernavoda to the INR Pitesti, in order to be examined within INR's hot-cells facilities. The safety assessment includes the following main aspects: (1) evaluation and analysis of available data on road traffic accidents; (2) estimation of the expected frequency for severe road accident scenarios resulting in potential radionuclide release; and (3) evaluation of the expected radiological consequences and accident risks of transport operations. (author)

Risk a multidisciplinary introduction

CERN Document Server

Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell

2014-01-01

This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...

Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

459 Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

FIRST LADY

2011-01-18

Jan 18, 2011 ... injury. Risk factors may be considered as characteristic indicators ... by examining the cardiovascular risk factors that are related to various forms .... Cross country race, Handball, Jogging, Rope jumping, Running Soccer,.

SME's Implementing a Quality Management System- Risks and Opportunities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luise ZEININGER

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Part of our daily lives, risk ceased to be just something that managers are desperate to alleviate if not eliminate. It is now rightfully considered a path to explore new opportunities. The last version of the ISO 9001, the 2015 edition, is asking from organization implementing it to determine the risk and opportunities associated with their main processes, the impact over relevant third parties and the context, both internal and external. With this duality as starting point, we have investigated among SME's implementing a quality management system what would they consider to be the risk and opportunities associated to this action. Our paper presents hereinafter the partial results of a wider study on Romanian SME's management, especially the findings related to what managers consider as risk or opportunity when implementing a quality management system.

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

Discussion of some issues in risk study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Jingyuan; Liu Yuanzhong

1998-01-01

The concept of risk, the methods for assessing risk and the acceptability of risk are discussed. The emphasis was laid on the three components for complete description of a risk: scenario, probability and consequence of an event. The disadvantages of the concept and presentation of risk used in some risk analysis were pointed out. The paper emphasized that it is necessary to explicitly consider the multi-dimensionality of risk in the assessment and management of risk. Several important factors influencing the acceptability of risk and the methodology for evaluating the acceptability of risk were also described

Testosterone, Cortisol and Financial Risk-Taking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joe Herbert

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Both testosterone and cortisol have major actions on financial decision-making closely related to their primary biological functions, reproductive success and response to stress, respectively. Financial risk-taking represents a particular example of strategic decisions made in the context of choice under conditions of uncertainty. Such decisions have multiple components, and this article considers how much we know of how either hormone affects risk-appetite, reward value, information processing and estimation of the costs and benefits of potential success or failure, both personal and social. It also considers how far we can map these actions on neural mechanisms underlying risk appetite and decision-making, with particular reference to areas of the brain concerned in either cognitive or emotional functions.

Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

Second report of the national platform electromobility. Appendix; Zweiter Bericht der Nationalen Plattform Elektromobilitaet. Anhang

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-05-15

In the National Platform Electromobility, representatives from industry, science, politics, unions and societies in Germany agreed on a systematic, market-oriented and technology-open approach to become the main supplier and main market for electromobility up to the year 2020. Within the appendix of the second report to the National Platform Electromobility the following aspects are considered: (1) Content and criteria for the identification and evaluation of the emphases of flagship projects; (2) Flagship projects of the national conference on education; (3) Review on standardization activities; (4) A consistent design of public charging infrastructure; (5) Saving the distribution and financing of the public charging infrastructure; (6) Costs and payment reserves vehicle; (7) Criteria of tenders and awarding showcase projects; (8) Innovation promotion in Germany for renewable electromobility (I.D.E.E.) - standpoint of the WWF, climate alliance of the local authorities and the federal association renewable energies.

Sustainable Development and Protection of the Environment: Two Management Strategies Not Always Compatible

Science.gov (United States)

Athanassakis, Artemios M.

2010-01-01

The definition of Sustainable Development has received intense criticism and contestations with the result, that International Union for the Conservation of Natural Resources (I.U.C.N.), and the World Wide Fund for Nature (W.W.F.) clarified that sustainable development means the improvement of life quality, inside the limits of clarified capacity of ecosystems. According to its critics, is considered as a general concept, indefinite and contradictory. Those disputes put the accent on the close relation between the Sustainable Development and the values of the today's global market. This relationship transforms the Sustainable Development to an one dimensional economical growth with the "ecological ornaments" of sustainability and protection of environment. Therefore this paper looks for, whether the sustainable development consists one more device, focuses on the world financial system, or establishes one optimistic developmental perspective, which might harmonize the economical activities with the natural function of our planetic ecosystems.

Radiological control criteria for materials considered for recycle and reuse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, W.E. Jr.; Hill, R.L.; Aaberg, R.L.; Wallo, A. III

1994-11-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting technical analyses to support the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Guidance, Air, Water, and Radiation Division (DOE/EH-232) in developing radiological control criteria for recycling or reuse of metals or equipment containing residual radioactive contamination from DOE operations. The criteria, framed as acceptable concentrations for release of materials for recycling or reuse, are risk-based and were developed through analysis of generic radiation exposure scenarios and pathways. The analysis includes evaluation of relevant radionuclides, potential mechanisms of exposure, and non-health-related impacts of residual radioactivity on electronics and film. The analysis considers 42 key radionuclides that DOE operations are known to generate and that may be contained in recycled or reused metals or equipment. Preliminary results are compared with similar results reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency, by radionuclide grouping

Managing Risk and Opportunity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment...

[Malpractice in laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Results of cases recently considered by the Expert Commission].

Science.gov (United States)

Kienzle, H F

1999-01-01

The Expert Commission for medical malpractice which is part of the Medical Chamber of Nordrhein received about 60 applications in connection with laparoscopic cholecystectomy; as of August 1998 5 complaints were let off and 11 of them are still being considered. So far 44 complaints have been considered and in 25 of them medical malpractice has been established. The medical malpractice detected laparoscopic cholecystectomy cases were mainly bile duct injuries of which 13 required a biliodigestive anastomosis for reconstruction, four cases required and end-to-end anastomosis and in one case a T-tube drainage was needed. The youngest one of these patients was 21 years old, the oldest one was 61 years old. Four times the bile duct injury was not considered as malpractice, because it could be intraoperatively made out and immediately treated. Trocar injuries were twice a cause for malpractice and once it was not. Each of the following cases was also recognized as a malpractice. One lost gallstone one dislocated Roedersnare, one electric injury, one delayed reintervention and one insufficient information. The following cases were decided as non-malpractice: in two cases a slipped clip, in five cases subhepatical hematoma/abscess, in three cases a secondary bleeding, once a lesion of the splenic capsule and finally a running sore with subsequent incisional hernia. Three courses of treatment with consequence of death also contained mistakes: one electric injury of the bowel, one bile duct lesion and one information rebuke. The bile duct injury is the most considerable risk for laparoscopic cholecystectomy and implies also a high risk for the future health. The experienced surgeon distinguishes himself by the fact that he is right about the situation and converts sooner that later to conventional cholecystectomy if there's any doubt. In open surgery the principle is applied that structures may be only divided when they are clearly identified. The same goes even on a wider

Decisional conflict among women considering antidepressant medication use in pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, Georgia D; Ross, Lori E; Stewart, Donna E; Grigoriadis, Sophie; Dennis, Cindy-Lee; Vigod, Simone

2014-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine decision-making among women considering antidepressant medication use in pregnancy. Decisional conflict was assessed using the Decisional Conflict Scale (DCS) among pregnant women considering antidepressant medication treatment (N = 40). Overall DCS and subscale scores were compared between women who were antidepressant users and non-users. Semi-structured interviews (N = 10) explored barriers and facilitators of decision-making. Twenty-one women (52 %) had moderate or high decisional conflict (DCS ≥ 25). Overall DCS scores did not differ between groups, but antidepressant use was associated with feeling more adequately informed (subscale mean 17.5, SD 17.9 vs. 42.1, SD 23.8, p = 0.001) and clear about values (subscale mean 16.7, SD 15.1 vs. 29.8, SD 24.0, p = 0.043). Barriers to decision-making were (1) difficulty weighing maternal versus infant health, (2) lack of high quality information, (3) negative external influences, and (4) emotional reactions to decision-making. Facilitators were (1) interpersonal supports, (2) accessible subspecialty care, and (3) severe depressive symptoms. Many pregnant women facing decisions regarding antidepressant medication use experience decisional conflict. Interventions that provide accurate information, assistance with weighing risks and benefits of treatment, management of problematic external influences, and emotional support may reduce decisional conflict and facilitate the decision-making process.

Biological Risks to Public Health: Lessons from an International Conference to Inform the Development of National Risk Communication Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickmann, Petra; Bhatiasevi, Aphaluck; Chaib, Fadela; Baggio, Ombretta; Banluta, Christina; Hollenweger, Lilian; Maaroufi, Abderrahmane

Biological risk management in public health focuses on the impact of outbreaks on health, the economy, and other systems and on ensuring biosafety and biosecurity. To address this broad range of risks, the International Health Regulations (IHR, 2005) request that all member states build defined core capacities, risk communication being one of them. While there is existing guidance on the communication process and on what health authorities need to consider to design risk communication strategies that meet the requirements on a governance level, little has been done on implementation because of a number of factors, including lack of resources (human, financial, and others) and systems to support effective and consistent capacity for risk communication. The international conference on "Risk communication strategies before, during and after public health emergencies" provided a platform to present current strategies, facilitate learning from recent outbreaks of infectious diseases, and discuss recommendations to inform risk communication strategy development. The discussion concluded with 4 key areas for improvement in risk communication: consider communication as a multidimensional process in risk communication, broaden the biomedical paradigm by integrating social science intelligence into epidemiologic risk assessments, strengthen multisectoral collaboration including with local organizations, and spearhead changes in organizations for better risk communication governance. National strategies should design risk communication to be proactive, participatory, and multisectoral, facilitating the connection between sectors and strengthening collaboration.

Bayesian probabilistic network approach for managing earthquake risks of cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bayraktarli, Yahya; Faber, Michael

2011-01-01

This paper considers the application of Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPNs) to large-scale risk based decision making in regard to earthquake risks. A recently developed risk management framework is outlined which utilises Bayesian probabilistic modelling, generic indicator based risk models...... and a fourth module on the consequences of an earthquake. Each of these modules is integrated into a BPN. Special attention is given to aggregated risk, i.e. the risk contribution from assets at multiple locations in a city subjected to the same earthquake. The application of the methodology is illustrated...... on an example considering a portfolio of reinforced concrete structures in a city located close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey....

FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN TRADE BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ms. Tamara Ye. Kononenko

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper clarifies the concepts of «risk», «financial risk» in banking business, and considers the main problems of financial risk management in trade banks while financing borrowers. The authors single out the most relevant problems, and conduct the analysis of overdue payment in case of OJSC “Sberbank of Russia”. The authors also offer a number of measures to minimize financial risks in trade bank activities in modern conditions.

Information Risk Management and Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Dynes, Scott

Are the levels of information risk management efforts within and between firms correlated with the resilience of the firms to information disruptions? This paper examines the question by considering the results of field studies of information risk management practices at organizations and in supply chains. The organizations investigated differ greatly in the degree of coupling from a general and information risk management standpoint, as well as in the levels of internal awareness and activity regarding information risk management. The comparison of the levels of information risk management in the firms and their actual or inferred resilience indicates that a formal information risk management approach is not necessary for resilience in certain sectors.

Methods of Financial Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korzh Natalia

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The essence and nature of financial risks are investigated. Their classification is conducted. The features of financial risk management and the main methods of management are considered. The ways of risk compensation are identified. It is proved that the objective external risk basis is such market imperfections as externalities of enterprises and incomplete information about the operation of the business environment and internal objective basis risk – the objective function to maximise profits in a competitive environment. It is revealed that to compensate market imperfections business entities should develop a strategy that combines fill in missing information and neutralise or minimise externalities that tactically implemented in financial risk management programs.

At your own risk. An inquiry about risk management in the ESI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The UNIPEDE survey on Risk Management within the Electricity Supply Industry has provided a picture of the risks facing the Industry at present and an insight into the management of tomorrow's risks. The survey, in which 81 companies (85 respondents) from 31 countries took part shows that: nearly all types of risk identified in the questionnaire are perceived to be growing : the Risk Management role has become more centralized over the past three years: change will slow in the coming three ; the amount of top level attention given to Risk Management is increasing. However only 37 % of respondent companies have Risk Management as a regular top level management item ; environment-related risks and the safety of both employees and the public are perceived as the most critical risks facing the Industry. Over 80 % of surveyed companies consider that both are of increasing concern ; almost 90 % of respondents agreed that risk management processes should be implemented for both pure and speculative risks. Those who disagreed maintained that Risk Management should be 'realistic not theoretical' ; respondents from the US gave markedly different answers to those from the rest of the world. Risk Management in the US receives top level attention, with numerous separated risk management departments handling risk strategy

Policing Welfare: Risk, Gender and Criminality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scarlet Wilcock

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Over the last three decades, welfare states across the West have embraced a host of new technologies and initiatives in the name of fighting welfare abuse and fraud (see Cook 1989, 2006; Wacquant 2001, 2009. Increasingly, these practices of ‘welfare policing’ are graduated according to risk; particular welfare populations considered at greater risk of welfare fraud are subject to more intense scrutiny. Drawing on interview research with compliance staff from the Australian Department of Human Services, this paper critically explores how the rationality of risk figures in the process of welfare surveillance in Australia. It pays particular attention to the ways in which risk formulations are embedded in gender and class politics, and how this has led to the characterisation of single mothers and unemployed recipients as more ‘risky’ than the general welfare population, a point that is often overlooked in the literature. But, far from being immutable, this paper also considers how the politics of risk are open to reformulation with often unexpected results.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Assessment and perception of risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daglish, J

1981-01-01

A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

Power production at minimum risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fremlin, J.H.

1983-01-01

A summary, including extensive quotations, is given of the main themes of a lecture by Prof. Fremlin in which he assessed the risks inherent in the use of various power systems. Considering only hazards which affect members of the public, the methods used to quantify such risks are examined. Both so-called inconspicuous hazards from radiation effects and conspicuous risks from accidents which could arise from nuclear power stations are compared to those from other types of power generation. The small risk arising from nuclear wastes is stressed. The lecturer concluded that he would not let 'tiny differences of risk' affect his decisions on energy planning. (U.K.)

Health risks maps. Modelling of air quality as a tool to map health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Doorn, R.; Hegger, C.

2000-01-01

Environmental departments consider geographical maps with information on air quality as the final product of a complicated process of measuring, modelling and presentation. Municipal health departments consider such maps a useful starting point to solve the problem whether air pollution causes health risks for citizens. The answer to this question cannot be reduced to checking if threshold limit values are exceeded. Based on the results of measurements and modelling of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in air, the health significance of air pollution caused by nitrogen dioxide is illuminated. A proposal is presented to map health risks of air pollution by using the results of measurements and modelling of air pollution. 7 refs

Risk capital allocation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hougaard, Jens Leth; Smilgins, Aleksandrs

Risk capital allocation problems have been widely discussed in the academic literature. We consider a company with multiple subunits having individual portfolios. Hence, when portfolios of subunits are merged, a diversification benefit arises: the risk of the company as a whole is smaller than...... the sum of the risks of the individual sub-units. The question is how to allocate the risk capital of the company among the subunits in a fair way. In this paper we propose to use the Lorenz set as an allocation method. We show that the Lorenz set is operational and coherent. Moreover, we propose a set...... of new axioms related directly to the problem of risk capital allocation and show that the Lorenz set satisfies these new axioms in contrast to other well-known coherent methods. Finally, we discuss how to deal with non-uniqueness of the Lorenz set....

Holistic Disaster Risk Evaluation for the Urban Risk Management Plan of Manizales, Colombia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Martha Liliana Carre(n)o; Omar-Darío Cardona; Alex H.Barbat; Dora Catalina Suarez; María del Pilar Perez; Lizardo Narvaez

2017-01-01

Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social,economic,and environmental aspects of a society.For a better risk understanding,a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales,Colombia.This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss,but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor secondorder effects in a disaster.This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability,social fragility,and lack of resilience that can be improved,thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions.The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales.

The background and theory of integrated risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Hunsucker, John L.

1995-01-01

While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.

Cable fire risk of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aulamo, H.

1998-02-01

The aim of the study is to carry out a comprehensive review of cable fire risk issues of nuclear power plants (NPP) taking into account latest fire and risk assessment research results. A special emphasis is put on considering the fire risk analysis of cable rooms in the framework of TVO Olkiluoto NPP probabilistic safety assessment. The assumptions made in the analysis are assessed. The literature study section considers significant fire events at nuclear power plants, the most severe of which have nearly led to a reactor core damage (Browns Ferry, Greifswald, Armenia, Belojarsk, Narora). Cable fire research results are also examined

Economic analysis of energy system considering the uncertainties of crude oil, natural gas and nuclear utilization employing stochastic dynamic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Keita; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

2016-01-01

The paper presents an economic rationality analysis of power generation mix by stochastic dynamic programming considering fuel price uncertainties and supply disruption risks such as import disruption and nuclear power plant shutdown risk. The situation revolving around Japan's energy security adopted the past statistics, it cannot be applied to a quantitative analysis of future uncertainties. Further objective and quantitative evaluation methods are required in order to analyze Japan's energy system and make it more resilient in sight of long time scale. In this paper, the authors firstly develop the cost minimization model considering oil and natural gas price respectively by stochastic dynamic programming. Then, the authors show several premises of model and an example of result with related to crude oil stockpile, liquefied natural gas stockpile and nuclear power plant capacity. (author)

RISK MANAGEMENT MECHANISM OF GRAIN PROCESSING ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. P. Bogomolova

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In article the main characteristics of a control system by risks (the purpose, properties, the principles, requirements are defined, and also the possible mechanism of risk management of the flour-grinding enterprises is considered.

Value-at-risk estimation with fuzzy histograms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2008-01-01

Value at risk (VaR) is a measure for senior management that summarises the financial risk a company faces into one single number. In this paper, we consider the use of fuzzy histograms for quantifying the value-at-risk of a portfolio. It is shown that the use of fuzzy histograms provides a good

The 'polypill' to reduce cardiovascular risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patel, Vinod; Pedersen, Oluf; Morrissey, John

2004-01-01

This article considers data from the Steno-2 multifactorial intervention study in type 2 diabetes to which are applied the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Mathematical analyses support the use of a 'polypill' to reduce cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes. It is s...

A Better Time Now to Consider New Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agnihotri, Newal K.

2004-01-01

Mr. Christopher Crane, President and Chief Nuclear Officer of Exelon Nuclear was interviewed regarding his views on a series of questions related to the future of the nuclear industry in the United States. His view is that in order for new nuclear power plants to be considered, they must be economically competitive when compared to other baseload generation alternatives. With respect to capital cost, the industry has informally conveyed that overnight capital costs need to be below the range of $1,000-$1,200/kWE. Reactor vendors are working to reduce their first of a kind engineering costs to meet this capital cost threshold. Financing is then the next significant factor, which is complicated by whether the plant is being constructed in a regulated environment where the power company has the security of a regulated rate of return or as a merchant plant where the company assumes the risks and benefits of the proposed investment. With respect to operating and maintenance costs, the nuclear power industry has been dedicated to reducing costs while maintaining or improving safety. There are sound plans for spent fuel and high-level waste disposal, but there is a need to improve public confidence in transportation aspects. Regarding making new plants more attractive to investors, the risk factor has been a concern. The new Part 52 process is designed to help by requiring safety design issues to be identified and resolved prior to the issuance of the Combined Operating License (COL) process. While the revised process appears to be more acceptable from an investment risk perspective, there remains uncertainty in the fact that it has never been demonstrated. Skepticism, too, still exists with regard to building plants on schedule and within budget. Mr. Crane concludes that certain incentives will be needed for ''first movers'' in nuclear investment. These could include production tax credits, investment tax credits, government loan guarantees, and power purchase agreements

The Arctic Region: A Requirement for New Security Architecture?

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-01

cooperation and mutually beneficial partnerships . Denmark’s security policy states that existing international law and established forums of cooperation...increase leadership in multinational forum and, develop comprehensive partnerships without the need to create a new security organization. Figure 3...Arctic region. Endnotes 1 Government of Canada, “Canada’s Arctic foreign policy” (Ottawa, Canada, 2007), 2. 2 WWF Global, “Arctic oil and gas”, http

US Army Europe: Sharing the ITAM Tenets with Multinational Partners in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-01

TenetsUNCLASSIFIED  Initiate a conservation partnership to support land management activities on 303rd training lands.  Significance of Brigade 303...World Wildlife Fund ( WWF ) African Wildlife Foundation (AWF) Local surrounding communities Partners Any Mission, Anywhere UNCLASSIFIED As of 5 May... Partnerships which should help sustain TPDF’s valuable training area resources Any Mission, Anywhere UNCLASSIFIED As of 5 May 2011 USAREUR; Sharing

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. February 2009

Science.gov (United States)

2009-02-01

issued a statement that calls for a consultative process on options for a Global Partnership for Agriculture Food Security and Nutrition. At a...sharing of knowledge with the following four objectives: advocacy and awareness raising; partnership building with The Millennium Project, WFUNA...climate change. It is a collaboration between the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and WWF International. Although about $18 billion

New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

2015-01-01

Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

Framework for the quality assurance of 'omics technologies considering GLP requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Kauffmann, Hans-Martin; Kamp, Hennicke; Fuchs, Regine; Chorley, Brian N; Deferme, Lize; Ebbels, Timothy; Hackermüller, Jörg; Perdichizzi, Stefania; Poole, Alan; Sauer, Ursula G; Tollefsen, Knut E; Tralau, Tewes; Yauk, Carole; van Ravenzwaay, Ben

2017-12-01

'Omics technologies are gaining importance to support regulatory toxicity studies. Prerequisites for performing 'omics studies considering GLP principles were discussed at the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) Workshop Applying 'omics technologies in Chemical Risk Assessment. A GLP environment comprises a standard operating procedure system, proper pre-planning and documentation, and inspections of independent quality assurance staff. To prevent uncontrolled data changes, the raw data obtained in the respective 'omics data recording systems have to be specifically defined. Further requirements include transparent and reproducible data processing steps, and safe data storage and archiving procedures. The software for data recording and processing should be validated, and data changes should be traceable or disabled. GLP-compliant quality assurance of 'omics technologies appears feasible for many GLP requirements. However, challenges include (i) defining, storing, and archiving the raw data; (ii) transparent descriptions of data processing steps; (iii) software validation; and (iv) ensuring complete reproducibility of final results with respect to raw data. Nevertheless, 'omics studies can be supported by quality measures (e.g., GLP principles) to ensure quality control, reproducibility and traceability of experiments. This enables regulators to use 'omics data in a fit-for-purpose context, which enhances their applicability for risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear risk: information of medical practitioners in Isere Department. Impact of the booklet: 'doctors and nuclear risk'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonquet, M.E.

1990-02-01

In this thesis, the author first presents 'Isere, pilot department' operation, then the importance of nuclear risks in Isere, considers the role and place of medical practitioners in the management of this risk and in information request of medical personnel. The author also presents the booklet 'Doctors and nuclear risk' and analyzes the results of study on its impact close to medical population. 9 tabs., 25 figs

Is ALARP applicable to the management of terrorist risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guikema, S.D.; Aven, T.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the applicability of the as low as reasonable practicable (ALARP) principle to terrorist risk management. ALARP is a commonly used framework for managing risk due to non-intelligent threats, but terrorism introduces difficult issues, both technically and socially. In particular, the probability of a terrorist attack is difficult to define, terrorist threats are adaptive, and some terrorist risk management actions raise issues of loss of civil liberties not raised by risk management measures for other types of risk. We discuss these issues and their implications for risk management. After showing how ALARP is used to manage the risk from other hazards in different economic sectors, we discuss both the benefits and difficulties associated with extending the ALARP framework for terrorist risk analysis. We conclude that the ALARP framework can be modified to make it appropriate for risk management for adaptive risks, provided that care is taken to explicitly consider adaptive reallocation of risk in response to risk management actions, to account for perceived or actual loss of civil liberties resulting from risk management actions, and to consider the difficulties associated with using probability to measure uncertainty in adversary actions.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

kirstam

management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Ravi Rajan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

Risk and Resilience Analysis of Complex Network Systems Considering Cascading Failure and Recovery Strategy Based on Coupled Map Lattices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fuchun Ren

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Risk and resilience are important and challenging issues in complex network systems since a single failure may trigger a whole collapse of the systems due to cascading effect. New theories, models, and methods are urgently demanded to deal with this challenge. In this paper, a coupled map lattices (CML based approach is adopted to analyze the risk of cascading process in Watts-Strogatz (WS small-world network and Barabási and Albert (BA scale-free network, respectively. Then, to achieve an effective and robust system and provide guidance in countering the cascading failure, a modified CML model with recovery strategy factor is proposed. Numerical simulations are put forward based on small-world CML and scale-free CML. The simulation results reveal that appropriate recovery strategies would significantly improve the resilience of networks.

NPP financial and regulatory risks-Importance of a balanced and comprehensive nuclear law for a newcomer country considering nuclear power programme

Science.gov (United States)

Manan, J. A. N. Abd; Mostafa, N. A.; Salim, M. F.

2015-04-01

The nature of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) projects are: long duration (10-15 years for new build), high capital investment, reasonable risks and highly regulated industries to meet national & international requirement on Safety, Security, Safeguards (3S) and Liabilities. It requires long term planning and commitment from siting to final disposal of waste/spent fuel. Potential financial and regulatory risks are common in massive NPP projects and will be magnified in the case of using unproven technology. If the risks are not properly managed, it can lead to high project and operation costs, and, fail to fulfil its objectives to provide compatible electricity prices and. energy security. To ensure successful, the government and investors need to ensure that the NPP project is bankable with low cost of project and funding, have fair treatment and proper risk mitigation, and able to complete on time with no cost overrun. One of the requirements as prerequisite for the development of NPP as stipulated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the establishment of a Legal and Regulatory Framework. The main objective of nuclear law is to ensure that the activities and projects carried-out in the country are legal and compliant to national and international requirements. The law should also be able to provide fair treatment of risks on its activities that is acceptable to investors. The challenge for a newcomer country is to develop a balanced and comprehensive national nuclear law that meet these objectives while taking into consideration various stakeholders' interest without compromising on safety, security, safeguard, liability requirements and other international obligations. This paper highlights the nature of NPP projects, its potential and associated financial and regulatory risks, and its major concerns and challenges. It proposes possible risks treatment and mitigation through the formulation of a balanced and comprehensive legislation by clear

NPP financial and regulatory risks-Importance of a balanced and comprehensive nuclear law for a newcomer country considering nuclear power programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manan, J. A. N. Abd; Mostafa, N. A.; Salim, M. F.

2015-01-01

The nature of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) projects are: long duration (10-15 years for new build), high capital investment, reasonable risks and highly regulated industries to meet national and international requirement on Safety, Security, Safeguards (3S) and Liabilities. It requires long term planning and commitment from siting to final disposal of waste/spent fuel. Potential financial and regulatory risks are common in massive NPP projects and will be magnified in the case of using unproven technology. If the risks are not properly managed, it can lead to high project and operation costs, and, fail to fulfil its objectives to provide compatible electricity prices and. energy security. To ensure successful, the government and investors need to ensure that the NPP project is bankable with low cost of project and funding, have fair treatment and proper risk mitigation, and able to complete on time with no cost overrun. One of the requirements as prerequisite for the development of NPP as stipulated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the establishment of a Legal and Regulatory Framework. The main objective of nuclear law is to ensure that the activities and projects carried-out in the country are legal and compliant to national and international requirements. The law should also be able to provide fair treatment of risks on its activities that is acceptable to investors. The challenge for a newcomer country is to develop a balanced and comprehensive national nuclear law that meet these objectives while taking into consideration various stakeholders’ interest without compromising on safety, security, safeguard, liability requirements and other international obligations. This paper highlights the nature of NPP projects, its potential and associated financial and regulatory risks, and its major concerns and challenges. It proposes possible risks treatment and mitigation through the formulation of a balanced and comprehensive legislation by clear

NPP financial and regulatory risks-Importance of a balanced and comprehensive nuclear law for a newcomer country considering nuclear power programme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manan, J. A. N. Abd, E-mail: jamalan@tnb.com.my; Mostafa, N. A.; Salim, M. F. [Nuclear Energy Department, Planning Division, Tenaga Nasional Berhad Level 32, Dua Sentral, No. 8 Jalan Tun Sambanthan, 50470 Brickfields, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2015-04-29

The nature of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) projects are: long duration (10-15 years for new build), high capital investment, reasonable risks and highly regulated industries to meet national and international requirement on Safety, Security, Safeguards (3S) and Liabilities. It requires long term planning and commitment from siting to final disposal of waste/spent fuel. Potential financial and regulatory risks are common in massive NPP projects and will be magnified in the case of using unproven technology. If the risks are not properly managed, it can lead to high project and operation costs, and, fail to fulfil its objectives to provide compatible electricity prices and. energy security. To ensure successful, the government and investors need to ensure that the NPP project is bankable with low cost of project and funding, have fair treatment and proper risk mitigation, and able to complete on time with no cost overrun. One of the requirements as prerequisite for the development of NPP as stipulated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the establishment of a Legal and Regulatory Framework. The main objective of nuclear law is to ensure that the activities and projects carried-out in the country are legal and compliant to national and international requirements. The law should also be able to provide fair treatment of risks on its activities that is acceptable to investors. The challenge for a newcomer country is to develop a balanced and comprehensive national nuclear law that meet these objectives while taking into consideration various stakeholders’ interest without compromising on safety, security, safeguard, liability requirements and other international obligations. This paper highlights the nature of NPP projects, its potential and associated financial and regulatory risks, and its major concerns and challenges. It proposes possible risks treatment and mitigation through the formulation of a balanced and comprehensive legislation by clear

Safety from physical viewpoint: ''two-risk model in multiple risk problem''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuz'Min, I.I.; Akimov, V.A.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the problem of safety provision for people and environment within the framework of a certain socio-economic system (SES) as a problem of managing a great number of interacting risks characterizing numerous hazards (natural, manmade, social, economic once, etc.) inherent in the certain SES has been discussed. From the physical point of view, it can be considered a problem of interaction of many bodies which has no accurate mathematical solution even if the laws of interaction of this bodies are known. In physics, to solve this problem, an approach based on the reduction of the above-mentioned problem of the problem of two-body interaction which can be solved accurately in mathematics has been used. The report presents a similar approach to the problem of risk management in the SES. This approach includes the subdivision of numerous hazards inherent within the framework of the SES into two classes of hazards, so that each of the classes could be considered an integrated whole one, each of them being characterized by the appropriate risk. Consequently, problem of 'multiple-risk' management (i.e. the problem of many bodies, as represented in physics) can be reduced to the 'two-risk' management problem (that is, to the problem two-bodies). Within the framework of the two-risk model the optimization of costs to reduce the two kinds of risk, that is, the risk inherent in the SES as a whole, as well as the risk potentially provoked by lots of activities to be introduced in the SES economy has been described. The model has made it possible to formulate and prove the theorem of equilibrium in risk management. Using the theorem, a relatively simple and practically applicable procedure of optimizing the threshold costs to reduce diverse kinds of risk has been elaborated. The procedure provides to assess the minimum value of the cost that can be achieved regarding the socio-economic factors typical of the SES under discussion. The aimed

Missed opportunities-adolescents with a chronic condition (insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) describe their cigarette-smoking trajectories and consider health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Regber, Susann; Kelly, Kristina Berg

2007-12-01

To enhance our knowledge on why adolescents with a chronic condition (insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, IDDM) choose to smoke despite possible awareness of health risks. Twelve patients aged 15-20 with IDDM who smoked cigarettes volunteered to participate in qualitative interviews. The results were analyzed with content analysis according to Miles and Huberman 1994. One set confirmed what is earlier known on cigarette smoking among adolescents, such as plain exploring, needs to conform with group norms, identity needs and denial of risks. Other themes gave new insights. One was the emotional attitudes-or lack of emotions-expressed by important others, which exerted strong influences on the smoking trajectories. These emotions affected both initiation and motivation for quitting cigarette smoking and seemed crucial as means of meaningful communications concerning smoking. One theme was a flow path of cigarette smoking, which demonstrated opportunities for secondary prevention. Finally, developmental reasons for smoking and motivation for quitting could be described. There are several windows of opportunities to lower the risk of adolescents with IDDM and other chronic conditions from becoming and remaining smokers, as reported by young people themselves.

Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miao Han

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolt Jeffrey D

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

The influence of jumping risk and volatility risk on TAIEX option return

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wei-Long; Hsieh, Ching-Tang; Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung

2017-06-01

Due to the low profits in recent years environmental, as well as the development of financial engineering that promote the derivatives trading Volume increased. Moreover, the fastest-growing of selected right and the lack of research about option risk. This study aim to explore the relationship between the risk and reward of selected right in Taiwan index. This study focus on the pricing the jump risk of selected right in Taiwan index. Using cross-sectional data as a 12-month study period, using the iteration method to research the effects of abnormal returns, the result shows that different risk factors of fluctuations affected the abnormal returns obviously will cause risk premium as well as the jump risk which consistent with the theory of behavioral finance. However, according to traditional finance theory, contrary to the results of this study consider that higher risks should generate higher-paying as well. According this study, the investors in behavioral finance in modern financial theory is not rational, and the trading behavior is non-random, moreover, the financial market is non-efficiency. Instead, the high risk low reward.

Focussed capacity markets. A new market design for the transition to a new energy system. Study for the environmental foundation WWF Deutschland; Fokussierte Kapazitaetsmaerkte. Ein neues Marktdesign fuer den Uebergang zu einem neuen Energiesystem. Studie fuer die Umweltstiftung WWF Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matthes, Felix C.; Hermann, Hauke [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Schlemmermeier, Ben; Diermann, Carsten [LBD-Beratungsgesellschaft mbH, Berlin (Germany); Hammerstein, Christian von [RAUE LLP, Berlin (Germany)

2012-10-08

The German and European power supply systems face extensive changes. With the energy policy decisions made in 2010 and 2011 Germany has set itself the goal of comprehensively reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of electricity production by the middle of this century, of shifting its basis largely to renewable energies and of phasing out the use of nuclear energy by 2022. Alongside the phase-out of over 20,000 megawatts of electricity capacity from nuclear power plants, more than 10,000 megawatts of capacity from incumbent power plants are at acute risk of decommissioning. In addition the building of approx. 5,000 mega-watts of new power plant capacity up to 2020 and at least an additional 10,000 mega-watts up to 2030 has to be ensured to flank the planned expansion of renewable energies with residual load power plants which guarantee security of supply. Germany's network is part of the interconnected Continental European power system, but a closer analysis shows that power plant capacities from abroad cannot make a significant contribution to guaranteeing security of supply in Germany in the medium term. A capacity market instrument primarily serves to guarantee security of supply; yet objectives such as maintaining competition intensity, minimising costs for electricity con-sumers and meeting at least Germany's climate policy targets also have to be taken into account. In addition a contribution has to be made to transforming the power supply system; the building of new, very flexible and low emission power plants which complement the fluctuating electricity production from wind and solar energy is essential for technical and economic reasons. In view of these criteria and the problems of the capacity market models put forward to date (strategic reserve, a comprehensive capacity market), the concept of the ''focused capacity market'' is being developed. This design option for a capacity market consists of two different segments, for

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

On the Actual Risk of Bystander Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liebst, Lasse Suonperä; Heinskou, Marie Bruvik; Ejbye-Ernst, Peter

2018-01-01

Objectives: Bystander studies have rarely considered the victimization risk associated with intervention into violent, dangerous emergencies. To address this gap, we aim to identify factors that influence bystanders’ risk of being physically victimized. Methods: We observed bystander behavior fro...

Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

CERN Document Server

Solojentsev, E D

2005-01-01

In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

Considering the risk of infection by cryptosporidium via consumption of municipally treated drinking water from a surface water source in a Southwestern Ontario community.

Science.gov (United States)

Pintar, K D M; Fazil, A; Pollari, F; Waltner-Toews, D; Charron, D F; McEwen, S A; Walton, T

2012-07-01

Through the use of case-control analyses and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), relative risks of transmission of cryptosporidiosis have been evaluated (recreational water exposure vs. drinking water consumption) for a Canadian community with higher than national rates of cryptosporidiosis. A QMRA was developed to assess the risk of Cryptosporidium infection through the consumption of municipally treated drinking water. Simulations were based on site-specific surface water contamination levels and drinking water treatment log₁₀ reduction capacity for Cryptosporidium. Results suggested that the risk of Cryptosporidium infection via drinking water in the study community, assuming routine operation of the water treatment plant, was negligible (6 infections per 10¹³ persons per day--5th percentile: 2 infections per 10¹⁵ persons per day; 95th percentile: 3 infections per 10¹² persons per day). The risk is essentially nonexistent during optimized, routine treatment operations. The study community achieves between 7 and 9 log₁₀ Cryptosporidium oocyst reduction through routine water treatment processes. Although these results do not preclude the need for constant vigilance by both water treatment and public health professionals in this community, they suggest that the cause of higher rates of cryptosporidiosis are more likely due to recreational water contact, or perhaps direct animal contact. QMRA can be successfully applied at the community level to identify data gaps, rank relative public health risks, and forecast future risk scenarios. It is most useful when performed in a collaborative way with local stakeholders, from beginning to end of the risk analysis paradigm. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Insurance against nuclear risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dow, J.C.

1976-01-01

Virtually any type of nuclear risk is insurable in principle, providing, of course, that the necessary standards of safety and control are met. Some of the risks are of a relatively minor character and no more hazardous than a simple conventional risk. But insurers would not consider as a minor risk anything which involves the use of nuclear fuel or other nuclear materials which are in a critical state or capable of releasing dangerous levels of radioactivity. These would include nuclear reactors or, indeed, any type of assembly which can not be regarded as subcritical. Most insurers would also regard installations involved in the manufacturing, processing and enriching of nuclear fuel, and certainly those concerned with the reprocessing of irradiated fuel and plutonium extraction, as major risks. (HP) [de

Mathematical model of the loan portfolio dynamics in the form of Markov chain considering the process of new customers attraction

Science.gov (United States)

Bozhalkina, Yana

2017-12-01

Mathematical model of the loan portfolio structure change in the form of Markov chain is explored. This model considers in one scheme both the process of customers attraction, their selection based on the credit score, and loans repayment. The model describes the structure and volume of the loan portfolio dynamics, which allows to make medium-term forecasts of profitability and risk. Within the model corrective actions of bank management in order to increase lending volumes or to reduce the risk are formalized.

Why consider patients' preferences? A discourse analysis of clinical practice guideline developers.

Science.gov (United States)

Boivin, Antoine; Green, Judith; van der Meulen, Jan; Légaré, France; Nolte, Ellen

2009-08-01

Several organizations are advocating for patients' preferences to be considered in clinical practice guideline development and implementation. However, lack of agreement on the goal and meaning of this policy curtails evaluation and development of patient involvement programs. To describe guideline developers' discourses on the goal of considering patients' preferences. Qualitative study using discourse analysis. 18 participants (patients, health professionals, and public health experts) from 2 groups of British guideline developers. Template analysis of semi-structured individual interviews was strengthened by active search for deviant cases, team debriefing, and member checking. All respondents supported the idea of taking account of patients' preferences in guidelines. Divergences with the goal and meaning of considering preferences were structured in 4 discourses: (1) The Governance discourse constructs guideline development as a rational process of synthesizing population data-including evidence on patients' preferences-to maximize public health within the constraints of available resources; (2) the Informed Decision discourse aims at fostering patients' choice by providing tailored information on the risks and benefits of interventions; (3) the Professional Care discourse insists on basing professionals' recommendations on the individual characteristics of patients; (4) The Consumer Advocacy discourse argues for greater political power and influence over guideline development and clinical decision making. The identified discourses provide a set of hypothesis on how patient involvement programs are expected to work, which could help clarify the goals pursued by guideline organizations and anchor further evaluation efforts.

Distribution network planning method considering distributed generation for peak cutting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouyang Wu; Cheng Haozhong; Zhang Xiubin; Yao Liangzhong

2010-01-01

Conventional distribution planning method based on peak load brings about large investment, high risk and low utilization efficiency. A distribution network planning method considering distributed generation (DG) for peak cutting is proposed in this paper. The new integrated distribution network planning method with DG implementation aims to minimize the sum of feeder investments, DG investments, energy loss cost and the additional cost of DG for peak cutting. Using the solution techniques combining genetic algorithm (GA) with the heuristic approach, the proposed model determines the optimal planning scheme including the feeder network and the siting and sizing of DG. The strategy for the site and size of DG, which is based on the radial structure characteristics of distribution network, reduces the complexity degree of solving the optimization model and eases the computational burden substantially. Furthermore, the operation schedule of DG at the different load level is also provided.

Radiological control criteria for materials considered for recycle and reuse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, W.E. Jr.; Hill, R.L.; Aaberg, R.L.; Wallo, A. III.

1995-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting technical analyses to support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Guidance, Air, Water, and Radiation Division (DOE/EH-232) in developing radiological control criteria for recycling or reuse of metals or equipment containing residual radioactive contamination from DOE operations. The criteria, framed as acceptable concentrations for release of materials for recycling or reuse, are risk-based and were developed through analysis of generic radiation exposure scenarios and pathways. The analysis includes evaluation of relevant radionuclides, potential mechanisms of exposure, and non-health-related impacts of residual radioactivity on electronics and film. The analysis considers 42 key radionuclides that DOE operations are known to generate and that may be contained in recycled or reused metals or equipment. The preliminary results are compared with similar results reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency, by radionuclide grouping. (author)

Anomalous Diffusion Approximation of Risk Processes in Operational Risk of Non-Financial Corporations

Science.gov (United States)

Magdziarz, M.; Mista, P.; Weron, A.

2007-05-01

We introduce an approximation of the risk processes by anomalous diffusion. In the paper we consider the case, where the waiting times between successive occurrences of the claims belong to the domain of attraction of alpha -stable distribution. The relationship between the obtained approximation and the celebrated fractional diffusion equation is emphasised. We also establish upper bounds for the ruin probability in the considered model and give some numerical examples.

Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

Farmers' motivations, risk perceptions and risk management strategies in a developing economy: Bangladesh experience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahsan, D. A.

2011-01-01

and farm management training are considered among the best methods to manage the risks in the shrimp-farming business. We also observe some disparities in farmers' perceptions. For instance, farmers mentioned that removal of influence of middlemen from supply chain is essential for the betterment......Aquaculture farmers' risk perceptions and risk management strategies have still received little attention in agricultural research. Therefore, an exploratory study has been undertaken to provide empirical insight into Bangladeshi coastal shrimp farmers' risk perceptions and risk management...... and availability of quality shrimp seeds, exploitation by intermediaries and uncertainty about the future demand for shrimp in foreign markets are perceived as the most important sources of risk. On the other hand, prevention of disease, timely supply of shrimp seeds, elimination of middlemen from the supply chain...

What Must be Considered when to Perform Consumption Analytics with Facebook Posts?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson Siqueira Rangel Netto

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to discuss and present empirical evidences about whether online recommendations posted on Facebook can be related with consumption intention of its users. Moreover, the perceived reputation of the source of the information, the perceived value of the recommended product, and the perceived risk associated with the product were also considered as possible mediators of this relationship. In this sense, the structural relationship among the variables was assessed through SEM - Structural Equation Modeling. To conduct the study, the Facebook contacts of the author himself were screened using the Snow Ball sampling technique. A total of 402 valid cases were obtained. Among the mediating variables, the one that exerted the least total effect in the relationship was the perceived risk associated with the recommended product. The variable for the consumption intention had a value for R² of 47%, which indicates that the model significantly contributes to the explanation of the influence of the tested factors in the consumption intention of Facebook users. This finding indicates that organizations should invest in monitoring these behaviors and in proactive measures to stimulate consumption.

Perceptions of risk: understanding cardiovascular disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth Webster

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Ruth Webster1, Emma Heeley21Cardiovascular Division, 2Neurological and Mental Health Division, The George Institute for International Health, Camperdown, NSW, AustraliaAbstract: Cardiovascular disease (CVD is still the leading cause of death and disability worldwide despite the availability of well-established and effective preventive options. Accurate perception of a patient’s risk by both the patient and the doctors is important as this is one of the components that determine health-related behavior. Doctors tend to not use cardiovascular (CV risk calculators and underestimate the absolute CV risk of their patients. Patients show optimistic bias when considering their own risk and consistently underestimate it. Poor patient health literacy and numeracy must be considered when thinking about this problem. Patients must possess a reasonably high level of understanding of numerical processes when doctors discuss risk, a level that is not possessed by large numbers of the population. In order to overcome this barrier, doctors need to utilize various tools including the appropriate use of visual aids to accurately communicate risk with their patients. Any intervention has been shown to be better than nothing in improving health understanding. The simple process of repeatedly conveying risk information to a patient has been shown to improve accuracy of risk perception. Doctors need to take responsibility for the accurate assessment and effective communication of CV risk in their patients in order to improve patient uptake of cardioprotective lifestyle choices and preventive medications.Keywords: risk perception, cardiovascular disease, cardioprotective lifestyle

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Marked point process framework for living probabilistic safety assessment and risk follow-up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arjas, Elja; Holmberg, Jan

1995-01-01

We construct a model for living probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) by applying the general framework of marked point processes. The framework provides a theoretically rigorous approach for considering risk follow-up of posterior hazards. In risk follow-up, the hazard of core damage is evaluated synthetically at time points in the past, by using some observed events as logged history and combining it with re-evaluated potential hazards. There are several alternatives for doing this, of which we consider three here, calling them initiating event approach, hazard rate approach, and safety system approach. In addition, for a comparison, we consider a core damage hazard arising in risk monitoring. Each of these four definitions draws attention to a particular aspect in risk assessment, and this is reflected in the behaviour of the consequent risk importance measures. Several alternative measures are again considered. The concepts and definitions are illustrated by a numerical example

CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING THE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES OF BANK RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICOLETA GEORGETA PANAIT

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The study summarizes what it means banking risks, the main risk management strategies. The complexity of the business environment, liberalization and internationalization of financial flows, brings rapid innovation, diversified financial markets, new opportunities but multiplied risks. Banks establish the types of risks they are prepared to take and the threshold at which risk is considered significant. The process of determining the risks that are taken includes the nature, the scale and the complexity of banks.

Analysis of power system collapse risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

2012-01-01

In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS INTO SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

Alexandra-Codruta Popescu (Bîzoi); Cristian-Gabriel Bîzoi

2015-01-01

Literature has focused largely on the field of supply chain risk management. Numerous risks occur within supply chain management. Until lately, behavioural risks (implying large amount of losses) have been neglected and considered not relevant. In this paper we provide an analysis of the importance of including behavioural research in logistics and supply chain risk management, what has been written so far and potential future research directions. Until now, literature on logistics and supply...

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fen-Ying Chen

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-01-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Subramanian, Vrishali, E-mail: vrishali.subramanian@unive.it; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy); Malsch, Ineke [Malsch TechnoValuation (Netherlands); McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin [University of Limerick, Kemmy Business School (Ireland); Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom [TNO (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio, E-mail: marcom@unive.it [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy)

2016-04-15

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

1989-01-01

In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

Development and pilot testing of a Decision Aid (DA) for women with early-stage breast cancer considering contralateral prophylactic mastectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ager, B; Jansen, J; Porter, D; Phillips, K A; Glassey, R; Butow, P

2018-05-22

Describe the development, acceptability and feasibility of a Decision Aid (DA) for women with early-stage breast cancer (BC) at average contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk considering contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM). The DA was developed using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) and the Ottawa Decision Support Framework. It provides evidence-based information about CPM in a booklet format combining text, graphs and images of surgical options. Twenty-three women with a history of early-stage breast cancer were interviewed in person or over the phone using a 'think aloud approach'. Framework analysis was used to code and analyse data. Twenty-three women participated in the study. Mean age of participants was 58.6 years and time since diagnosis ranged from 14 months to 21 years. Five women had CPM and eighteen had not. Women strongly endorsed the DA. Many felt validated by a section on appearance and found information on average risk of recurrence and metastases helpful, however, noted the importance of discussing personal risk with their surgeon. Many requested more information on surgery details (time taken, recovery) and costs of the different options. The DA was acceptable to women, including the format, content and proposed implementation strategies. Practical and financial issues are important to women in considering treatment options. Women appreciate information about CPM at diagnosis and emphasised the importance of discussing potential downsides of the procedure in addition to benefits. The DA was considered acceptable to facilitate such discussions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Sensitive Filtering with Poisson Process Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malcolm, W. P.; James, M. R.; Elliott, R. J.

2000-01-01

In this paper we consider risk sensitive filtering for Poisson process observations. Risk sensitive filtering is a type of robust filtering which offers performance benefits in the presence of uncertainties. We derive a risk sensitive filter for a stochastic system where the signal variable has dynamics described by a diffusion equation and determines the rate function for an observation process. The filtering equations are stochastic integral equations. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance gain for the risk sensitive filter compared with the risk neutral filter

MANAGEMENT OF SECURITY FOR BANK LOANS ON THE BASIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktoriia Kovalenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article aims to study methods and tools for risk management to ensure bank loans.  Proved that the effectiveness of risk management to ensure bank loans depends on consistency,  adequacy methods of evaluation, quality monitoring and timely response system of the banks and the  regulator. The article is to develop recommendations to improve the effectiveness of risk management providing bank loans considering the risks inherent in the process support mortgage portfolio of banks in the  face of considerable uncertainty functioning banks. It is proved that the risk provision of bank loans in the loan management should be considered  through risk characteristics that form the aggregate credit risk. Substantiated that risk management software meets the classic risk management, which identifies  four main stages: identification; risk assessment software; control risk; minimizing risk. Keywords: credit risk provision, loan, risk management, reserves.JEL: G 28

Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-02-01

Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient centered fall risk awareness perspectives: clinical correlates and fall risk

Science.gov (United States)

Verghese, Joe

2016-01-01

Background While objective measures to assess risk of falls in older adults have been established; the value of patient self-reports in the context of falls is not known. Objectives To identify clinical correlates of patient centered fall risk awareness, and their validity for predicting falls. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting and Participants 316 non-demented and ambulatory community-dwelling older adults (mean age 78 years, 55% women). Measurements Fall risk awareness was assessed with a two-item questionnaire, which asked participants about overall likelihood and personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. Incident falls were recorded over study follow-up. Results Fifty-three participants (16.8%) responded positively to the first fall risk awareness question about being likely to have a fall in the next 12 months, and 100 (31.6%) reported being at personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. There was only fair correlation (kappa 0.370) between responses on the two questions. Prior falls and depressive symptoms were associated with positive responses on both fall risk awareness questions. Age and other established fall risk factors were not associated with responses on both fall risk awareness questions. The fall risk awareness questionnaire did not predict incident falls or injurious falls. Conclusion Fall risk awareness is low in older adults. While patient centered fall risk awareness is not predictive of falls, subjective risk perceptions should be considered when designing fall preventive strategies as they may influence participation and behaviors. PMID:27801936

Risk identification in food safety: Strategy and outcomes of the EFSA emerging risks exchange network (EREN), 2010-2014

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Costa, M. C.; Goumperis, T.; Andersson, W.

2017-01-01

should be considered emerging or not, and if it merited further consideration, such as generating data on the issue, starting a full risk assessment and/or consultation of other bodies. According to the emerging risks identification process set in place at EFSA, the issues discussed and found...

Analyzing Capacity Withholding in Oligopoly Electricity Markets Considering Forward Contracts and Demand Elasticity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Salarkheili

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper capacity withholding in an oligopolistic electricity market that all Generation Companies (GenCos bid in a Cournot model is analyzed and the capacity withheld index, the capacity distortion index and the price distortion index are obtained and formulated. Then a new index, Distortion-Withheld Index (DWI, is proposed in order to measure the potential ability of market for capacity withholding. In these indices the impact of demand elasticity on capacity withholding is considered and it is shown that demand elasticity plays an important role for capacity withholding and market power mitigation. Due to the significant role of forward contracts for market power mitigation and risk hedging in power markets, the impacts of these contracts on capacity withholding are considered. The effects of GenCos’ strategic forward contracts on capacity withholding are also discussed. Moreover, the relationship between capacity withholding of GenCos and market price distortion is acquired. A two-settlement market including a forward market and a spot market is used to describe GenCos’ strategic forward contracting and spot market competition.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

Science.gov (United States)

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

2015-02-01

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Knowledge regarding risk factors of hypertension among entry year students of a medical university

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rizwana B Shaikh

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Context: Hypertension in youth is increasing, but there is a dearth of data about the knowledge of risk factors in this age group. Aims: To assess the knowledge of risk factors of hypertension among university students and associate it with the blood pressure, physical activity, family history of cardiovascular disease (CVD, and sociodemographic variables. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey among students enrolled in the first year, in the four academic programs, with the use of a validated, self-administered questionnaire on physical activity in the past 30 days and knowledge of risk factors of hypertension. A score of 6 on 11 was considered as good knowledge for modifiable risk factors. Blood pressure was also measured. The data was analyzed using PASW-17, Chi square test, and binary logistic regression analysis was done. Results: Of the 110 participants, 69.2% were < 20 years of age, 76.4% were females, and 40% were Arabs. Stress, high cholesterol, obesity, and smoking were identified as risk factors by 75.5, 73.6, 77.6, and 71.8%, respectively; 69.1% considered high salt intake and 62.7% considered high calorie diet as risk factors. Energy drink was considered as a risk factor by 64.5%, coffee consumption 35.5%, physical inactivity 47%, and oral contraceptives 13.6%. Half the group did not consider a family history of CVD as a risk factor, 60% did not consider older age as a risk factor, and 88% did not think male gender was a risk factor. Knowledge of modifiable risk factors was better than that of non-modifiable risk factors. Although nationality, course of study, raised blood pressure, and history of diabetes showed significant association with good knowledge, their net effect was not significant by the Adjusted Odd′s Ratio. Conclusions: The study identified some gaps in knowledge regarding both modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors of hypertension among students. A larger study would enable health promotion activities

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocks, Sophie A; Schubert, Iljana; Soane, Emma; Black, Edgar; Muckle, Rachel; Petts, Judith; Prpich, George; Pollard, Simon J

2017-09-01

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Managing Risk and Opportunity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

2017-09-01

On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

Considering Vulnerability in Disaster Risk Reduction Plans: From Policy to Practice in Ladakh, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virginie Le Masson

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In Ladakh, India, a mountainous region prone to natural hazards, particularly floods, it is critical to adapt disaster risk reduction (DRR measures to the local environment. The floods that struck Ladakh in 2010 created momentum for local authorities and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs to engage in DRR initiatives in order to better prepare people to cope with and recover from emergencies. This paper analyzes the way DRR approaches in Ladakh, from the central government to the district level, take both vulnerability and capacity into account. National and state policies are integrated and reflect the vulnerability concept quite well. However, as the case of Ladakh shows, establishing policies does not guarantee that appropriate practices will follow. Although NGOs' relief efforts in 2010 were praised for building on local communities' context and capacities, most practitioners still view DRR through a hazard-focused lens. Likewise, the policy framework for DRR does not yet address the socioeconomic construction of disasters and is not translated into adequate interventions that build on lessons learned during the 2010 emergency. Development obstacles, such as corruption, may also compromise efforts to translate DRR policies into appropriate and sustainable practices. However, local development projects that enhance the resilience of local mountain communities exist and could be valued as effective DRR. Emphasis should be placed on the practical integration of DRR in sustainable development efforts in order to better tackle disasters.

Risk assessment in long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, T.; Guttmann, J.; Mohseni, A.

2013-01-01

This paper presents probabilistic risk-informed approaches that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff is planning to consider in preparing regulatory bases for long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) for up to 300 years. Due to uncertainties associated with long-term SNF storage, the NRC is considering a probabilistic risk-informed approach as well as a deterministic design-based approach. The uncertainties considered here are primarily associated with materials aging of the canister and SNF in the cask system during long-term storage of SNF. This paper discusses some potential risk contributors involved in long-term SNF storage. Methods of performance evaluation are presented that assess the various types of risks involved. They include deterministic evaluation, probabilistic evaluation, and consequence assessment under normal conditions and the conditions of accidents and natural hazards. Some potentially important technical issues resulting from the consideration of a probabilistic risk-informed evaluation of the cask system performance are discussed for the canister and SNF integrity. These issues are also discussed in comparison with the deterministic approach for comparison purposes, as appropriate. Probabilistic risk-informed methods can provide insights that deterministic methods may not capture. Two specific examples include stress corrosion cracking of the canister and hydrogen-induced cladding failure. These examples are discussed in more detail, in terms of their effects on radionuclide release and nuclear subcriticality associated with the failure. The plan to consider the probabilistic risk-informed approaches is anticipated to provide helpful regulatory insights for long-term storage of SNF that provide reasonable assurance for public health and safety. (authors)

Risk versus benefit in radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samuel, E.

1985-01-01

The risks of radiology may be grouped into a) those inherent in the use of ionizing radiation which today are well known and b) those associated with the use of any scientific method in medicine. Inherent risks of scientific methods like inadequate examination and the interpretation of results are discussed. Radiology brought major benefits in medical care and some of the newer methods are considered

The systematic risk study in technology companies at Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcio Marcelo Belli

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This work tested if brasilian technology companies has a greater systematic risk than traditional companies in Brazil. For to achieve tje purpose, two companies samples , one of technology companies and the other of traditional companies, were composed. The tecnique employed was a multiple regression analysis considering a dichotomous variable wich represents the technological factor and another numerical variable wich represents the intangibility degree of  companies. As a dependent variable was considered the CAPM systematic risk. The results indicated that technology companies have a greater systematic risk than traditional companies regardless of the degree of intangibility.

Personal and couple level risk factors: Maternal and paternal parent-child aggression risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Meagan C; Rodriguez, Christina M; Baker, Levi R

2017-07-01

Previous literature examining parent-child aggression (PCA) risk has relied heavily upon mothers, limiting our understanding of paternal risk factors. Moreover, the extent to which factors in the couple relationship work in tandem with personal vulnerabilities to impact PCA risk is unclear. The current study examined whether personal stress and distress predicted PCA risk (child abuse potential, over-reactive discipline style, harsh discipline practices) for fathers as well as mothers and whether couple functioning mediated versus moderated the relation between personal stress and PCA risk in a sample of 81 couples. Additionally, the potential for risk factors in one partner to cross over and affect their partner's PCA risk was considered. Findings indicated higher personal stress predicted elevated maternal and paternal PCA risk. Better couple functioning did not moderate this relationship but partially mediated stress and PCA risk for both mothers and fathers. In addition, maternal stress evidenced a cross-over effect, wherein mothers' personal stress linked to fathers' couple functioning. Findings support the role of stress and couple functioning in maternal and paternal PCA risk, including potential cross-over effects that warrant further inquiry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Person-Centered Fall Risk Awareness Perspectives: Clinical Correlates and Fall Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Verghese, Joe

2016-12-01

To identify clinical correlates of person-centered fall risk awareness and their validity for predicting falls. Prospective cohort study. Community. Ambulatory community-dwelling older adults without dementia (N = 316; mean age 78, 55% female). Fall risk awareness was assessed using a two-item questionnaire that asked participants about overall likelihood of someone in their age group having a fall and their own personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. Incident falls were recorded over study follow-up. Fifty-three participants (16.8%) responded positively to the first fall risk awareness question about being likely to have a fall in the next 12 months, and 100 (31.6%) reported being at personal risk of falling over the next 12 months. There was only fair correlation (κ = 0.370) between responses on the two questions. Prior falls and depressive symptoms were associated with positive responses on both fall risk awareness questions. Age and other established fall risk factors were not associated with responses on either fall risk awareness question. The fall risk awareness questionnaire did not predict incident falls or injurious falls. Fall risk awareness is low in older adults. Although person-centered fall risk awareness is not predictive of falls, subjective risk perceptions should be considered when designing fall preventive strategies because they may influence participation and behaviors. © 2016, Copyright the Author Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Awareness of preventive medication among women at high risk for breast cancer and their willingness to consider transdermal or oral tamoxifen: a focus group study.

Science.gov (United States)

Karavites, Lindsey C; Allu, Subhashini; Khan, Seema A; Kaiser, Karen

2015-11-09

Despite demonstrated efficacy, acceptance of selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), such as tamoxifen, for breast cancer risk reduction remains low. Delivering SERMs via local transdermal therapy (LTT) could significantly reduce systemic effects and therefore may increase acceptance. We aim to assess women's knowledge of breast cancer prevention medications and views on LTT of SERMs. Focus groups were conducted with healthy women identified through the comprehensive breast center of a large urban cancer institution. Group discussions covered risk perceptions, knowledge of and concerns about risk reducing medications. Participants reported their perceived risk for breast cancer (average, below/above average), preference for SERMs in a pill or gel form, risk factors, and prior physician recommendations regarding risk-reducing medicines. Participants' breast cancer risk was estimated using tools based on the Gail Model. Trained personnel examined all qualitative results systematically; risk perceptions and preferred method of medication delivery were tallied quantitatively. Four focus groups (N = 32) were conducted. Most participants had at least a college degree (78.2 %) and were of European (50 %) or African ancestry (31 %). The majority (72 %) were at elevated risk for breast cancer; approximately half of these women perceived themselves to be at elevated risk. Few participants had prior knowledge of preventive medications. The women noted a number of concerns about LTT, including dosage, impact on day-to-day life, and side effects; nonetheless, over 90 % of the women stated they would prefer LTT to a pill. Awareness of preventive medications was low even in a highly educated sample of high-risk women. If given a choice in the route of administration, most women preferred a gel to a pill, anticipating fewer side effects. Future work should focus on demonstrating equivalent efficacy and reduced toxicity of topical over oral medications and on raising

Awareness of preventive medication among women at high risk for breast cancer and their willingness to consider transdermal or oral tamoxifen: a focus group study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karavites, Lindsey C.; Allu, Subhashini; Khan, Seema A.; Kaiser, Karen

2015-01-01

Despite demonstrated efficacy, acceptance of selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), such as tamoxifen, for breast cancer risk reduction remains low. Delivering SERMs via local transdermal therapy (LTT) could significantly reduce systemic effects and therefore may increase acceptance. We aim to assess women’s knowledge of breast cancer prevention medications and views on LTT of SERMs. Focus groups were conducted with healthy women identified through the comprehensive breast center of a large urban cancer institution. Group discussions covered risk perceptions, knowledge of and concerns about risk reducing medications. Participants reported their perceived risk for breast cancer (average, below/above average), preference for SERMs in a pill or gel form, risk factors, and prior physician recommendations regarding risk-reducing medicines. Participants’ breast cancer risk was estimated using tools based on the Gail Model. Trained personnel examined all qualitative results systematically; risk perceptions and preferred method of medication delivery were tallied quantitatively. Four focus groups (N = 32) were conducted. Most participants had at least a college degree (78.2 %) and were of European (50 %) or African ancestry (31 %). The majority (72 %) were at elevated risk for breast cancer; approximately half of these women perceived themselves to be at elevated risk. Few participants had prior knowledge of preventive medications. The women noted a number of concerns about LTT, including dosage, impact on day-to-day life, and side effects; nonetheless, over 90 % of the women stated they would prefer LTT to a pill. Awareness of preventive medications was low even in a highly educated sample of high-risk women. If given a choice in the route of administration, most women preferred a gel to a pill, anticipating fewer side effects. Future work should focus on demonstrating equivalent efficacy and reduced toxicity of topical over oral medications and on raising

Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

1987-01-01

Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

2008-10-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenbrand, G

2015-12-01

In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Fulcrum of U. S. Regional Rebalancing: Russian and U.S. Securitization Moves in Contemporary Strategic Shifts

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-01

still ensuring our ability to maintain our defense commitments to Europe, and strengthening alliances and partnerships across all regions.”1 While...stated intent is to build an “equitable and valuable strategic partnership ” to address several priorities. Those priorities include arms control...the National Security of the Russian Federation to 2020”. Article 37. See “ WWF Partners in Russia Targeted as ‘Foreign Agents’,” News Media, RIA

Evolving a Simulation Model Product Line Software Architecture from Heterogeneous Model Representations

Science.gov (United States)

2003-09-01

large image database [ WWF +98], and the Object-Oriented Method for Interoperability (OOMI) [You02c]. The [You02c] solution is a federated...scientific programs, or cooperative public-private partnerships . NASA led the effort to collect data from space-based sensors, and continues to this day...international scientific programs, or cooperative public- private partnerships . However, remotely sensed data from space may be difficult to share based on

The Panda Bear logo as crowbar. World Wildlife Fund approach useful for many countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quarles van Ufford, A.; Van der Weijden, E. [World Wildlife Fund WWF, Zeist (Netherlands)

2001-07-01

WWF in the Netherlands has taken the initiative to build extremely energy efficient houses without pushing up the costs or needing subsidies. By utilizing their public relations experience, and by introducing the famous panda bear logo the programme has become a hug success. This approach could also be copied in other countries. The process and the results of the project are described and could act as a guide for local initiatives.

Earthquake Disaster Risk Index for Cities: Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varazanashvili, O.; Mammadli, T.; Nazaretyan, S.

2005-01-01

For comparative analysis of seismic risk in the capitals of the South Caucasian States - Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi - the methodology of determination of earthquake disaster risk index (EDRI) has been used. Earthquake disaster risk indexes have been determined for considered cities. EDRI-analysis is performed, some peculiarities of main risk factors are revealed and risk portraits are made in each city of the given sample. (author)

A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting-Qiang Chen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature. [Once-through Cycle and Plutonium Recycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

1982-10-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included.

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Radiation risks and other risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansweyer, C.J.M.

1981-01-01

The differences in acceptance of risks of different nature (industrial, in the home, on the road, use of drugs, alcohol, tobacco, coffee or other food stuffs) by the public are compared on the basis of life expectancy values of different categories of people. The safety of radiologic work for both personnel and patients is considered in connection with the basic principles underlying the ICRP recommendations. A computation of the effective body dose equivalent for a mean medical X-ray examination and a nuclear in vivo examination is given. (Auth.)

Risk Pricing in Construction Tenders - How, Who, What

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcus Tower

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Construction projects are most commonlyprocured in Australia by means of a traditionaldesign–tender–build model, whereby design islargely completed then contractors submittenders in a competitive environment.Construction contractors must consider riskswithin their tenders. This paper reports theresearch findings into pricing for risk incompetitive tenders by constructioncontractors. The research is based onstructured interviews with 10 contractingpersonnel; supplemented by 23 responses ofconstruction personnel from an online survey.Two common methods to price for risk are atrade-by-trade basis or an overall percentageor lump sum addition to the base estimate.Experience and intuition plays a significant rolein pricing for risk in tenders and the numberand type of people involved varies with projectsize, with greater involvement as project sizeincreases. The most significant risks priced intenders were: availability of resources; designor documentation errors; incomplete design;buildability issues; and inclement weather. Themost significant project factors considered bycontractors when pricing for risk in tenders are:value of liquidated damages; type ofcontract/procurement; completeness ofdocumentation; project complexity; and currentworkload. These risks and project factors areprimarily those over which the contractor haslimited or no control.

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

The assessment and perception of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daglish, J.

1981-01-01

A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

2013-04-01

Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, P A; Geraci, C L; Hodson, L L; Zumwalde, R D; Kuempel, E D; Murashov, V; Martinez, K F; Heidel, D S

2013-01-01

Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

Farmers risk perception and risk management strategies in an emerging mussel aquaculture industry in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahsan, Dewan; Roth, Eva

2010-01-01

The aim of this exploratory study is to provide empirical insight into how the mussel farmers perceive and manage risks. The results show that future price and demand of mussel are the high ranked perceived risk. Bad weather, oxygen depletion, harmful algal blooms, E-coli, change in governmental...... regulation and public view towards mussel culture are also considered important risk factors in mussel farming. On the other hand, produced at lowest possible cost, cooperative marketing, good relation with government, prioritize liquidity, adopt new technology and experience sharing are perceived most...

Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, P

2013-11-01

This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A challenge for land and risk managers: differents stakeholders, differents definitions of the risks

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

2012-04-01

In developing countries, mountain populations and territories are subject to multiple risks and vulnerabilities. In addition, they face even greater challenges than developed countries due to lack of knowledge, resources and technology. There are many different types of actors in society that manage risk at various scales and levels (i.e. engineers, geologists, administrators, land use planners, merchants and local indigenous and non-indigenous people). Because of limited resources and possibilities to reduce all types of risk, these different actors, or 'risk managers' have to choose and compete to prioritize which types of risks to address. This paper addresses a case study from San Cristobal Altaverapaz, Guatemala where a large landslide "Los Chorros", a catastrophic collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock, is affecting several communities and one of the country's main west-east access highways. In this case, the government established that the "primary" risk is the landslide, whereas other local stakeholders consider the primary risks to be economic This paper, situated at the cross section between political science, geography and disaster risk management, addresses the social conflict and competition for priorities and solutions for risk management, depending on the group of actors based on the on-going Los Chorros, Guatemala landslide mitigation process. This work is based on the analysis of practices, (Practical Science), policies and institutions in order to understand how the inclusion of multiple stakeholders in determining risk priorities can lead to more sustainable risk management in a given territory. The main objective of this investigation is first to identify and understand the juxtaposition of different readings of the risk equation, usually considered the interface between vulnerability, exposure and hazards. Secondly, it is to analyze the mechanisms of actions taken by various stakeholders, or risk managers. The analysis focuses on the

Risk of Falling in Older Women

OpenAIRE

Laura Armas; Joan Lappe; Veronica J. Slavik; Kellan Slattery; Shih-Chuan Cheng; Davender S. Malik; John N. Mordeson

2015-01-01

We propose a weighted average approach to measure the risk of falling in older women. We consider four causal variables of falling, namely serum 25-OHD levels, medication use, fracture, and age. We use five methods to derive linear equations with these four factors as independent variables in the linear equations with risk of falling as the dependent variable.

Quantifying non-energy benefits of a carbon reduction initiative for a glassware company

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willoughb-y, Sheri (World Wildlife Fund (United States)); Guo, Stephan (IKEA Trading (Hongkong) Ltd. (China)); Dahlgren, Maja (IKEA Trading Services Sp. z o.o. (Poland)); Schaefer, Thomas (IKEA of Sweden (Sweden)); Jia, Hongming (Hongwei Glassware Co. Ltd. (China))

2011-07-01

A glassware company in Yuncheng, China, which supplies to IKEA, upgraded its furnaces and switched the fuel source from coal to natural gas as a participant in an IKEA and WWF-led carbon reduction project. In addition to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 35 % (approx7,000 tons CO{sub 2}e) between 2009 and 2010, the company realized numerous non-energy benefits (NEBs) which improved the business case for their investment. While many NEBs can be difficult to quantify, the company calculated that improvements in product quality related to switching the pot furnaces from coal to natural gas directly reduced cost of products by 17 %. This cost reduction was realized from two primary NEBs: 1. Rate of available material: For one product, improved temperature stability in the natural gas furnace increased the output rate from 1,200 to 1,350 pieces, reducing each product's cost 12.5 %. 2. Improvement of qualified rate (non-rejects): For another product output increased from 900 to 1,050 pieces and the qualified rate increased from 75 to 80 percent. This gain was also due to increased temperature stability in the natural gas furnace which made the melted color and the material quality more stable. This resulted in a cost reduction of 5 % compared to the daily output from the coal furnace. While the glassware company had not yet broke even on its investment in the first year, the management had a very favourable view on this project due to the NEBs listed above as well as increased labor productivity due to improved working conditions (cleaner and cooler) and reduced risk of fines due to environmental regulation of coal. If a source of biogas could be secured, further carbon reductions could be realized while maintaining the NEBs achieved by switching to natural gas. This paper will further examine these and other non-energy benefits realized by the glassware company through the IKEA-WWF carbon reduction project

Corporate risk tolerance and capital allocation: A practical approach to implementing an exploration risk policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walls, M.R.

1995-01-01

Petroleum exploration companies are confronted regularly with the issue of allocating scarce capital among a set of available exploration projects, which are generally characterized by a high degree of financial risk and uncertainty. Commonly used methods for evaluating alternative investments consider the amount and timing of the monetary flows associated with a project and ignore the firm's ability or willingness to assume the business risk of the project. The preference-theory approach combines the traditional means of project valuation, net present value (NPV) analysis, with a decision-science-based approach to risk management. This integrated model provides a means for exploration firms to measure and to manage the financial risks associated with petroleum exploration, consistent with the firm's desired risk policy

Ruin Probabilities in a Dependent Discrete-Time Risk Model With Gamma-Like Tailed Insurance Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing-Fang Huang

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper considered a dependent discrete-time risk model, in which the insurance risks are represented by a sequence of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables with a common Gamma-like tailed distribution; the financial risks are denoted by another sequence of independent and identically distributed positive random variables with a finite upper endpoint, but a general dependence structure exists between each pair of the insurance risks and the financial risks. Following the works of Yang and Yuen in 2016, we derive some asymptotic relations for the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities. As a complement, we demonstrate our obtained result through a Crude Monte Carlo (CMC simulation with asymptotics.

Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Partyka

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.

The quality of food risk management in Europe: Perspectives and priorities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houghton, J.R.; Rowe, G.; Frewer, L.J.; Kleef, van E.; Chryssochoidis, G.; Kehagia, O.; Korzen-Bohr, S.; Lassen, J.; Pfenning, U.; Strada, A.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we address the issue of food risk management as practised in Western Europe. We begin by considering how food risks are managed, and then go on to consider how well they are managed. There are multiple answers to the `how well¿ question, which are related to the varied perspectives of

Exergetic assessment of an integrated gasifier/boiler system for hydrogen production with different biomass types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinci, Y.; Hepbasli, A.; Dincer, I.

2009-01-01

In this study, we utilize some experimental data taken from the literature, especially on the air blown gasification characteristics of six different biomass fuels, namely almond shell (ASF), walnut pruning (WPF), rice straw (RSF), whole tree wood chips (WWF), sludge (SLF) and non-recyclable waste paper (NPF) for hydrogen production from an integrated gasifier-boiler power system. Then, we undertake an exergy analysis of this integrated system and assess its performance through energy and exergy efficiencies. The exergy content values calculated for the biomass fuels range from 15.89 to 22.07 MJ/kg. The stack gas is examined at cyclone out, and the hydrogen concentrations determined change between 7 and 18 (%v/v) for NPF and ASF. Furthermore, the system considered is studied in terms of irreversibility and improvement potential rates. These rate values change from 6.82 to 43.11 kW for irreversibility and 6.01 to 41.24 kW for improvement potential, respectively. The exergy efficiencies of the system are calculated as 4.33 to 11.89%. Finally, we consider N and NH 3 contents of the six biomass fuels and their stack gas compositions. (author)

International and Russian practice of banking risk-management. Mortgage risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Nikolaeva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the work is to compare Russian norms and standards of risk management of mortgage lending with international standards of risk management based on the documents of the Basel Committee. The article also aims to analyze new banking tools of risk management of mortgage lending, that arise in connection with the application of international norms and standards of risk management.Materials and Methods: The main documents considered in the article are the agreements on capital, issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: Basel-I (1988, Basel-II (2004 and Basel-III (2010, as well as instructions and standing orders issued by the Central Bank of Russia, including: Instruction № 139-I "Ob obiazatel'nykh normativakh bankov", instruction № 1 "O poriadke regulirovaniia deiatel'nosti kommercheskikh bankov", the standing order number 215-P "O metodike opredeleniia sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala kreditnykh organizatsii", the standing order № 395-P "O metodike opredeleniia velichiny sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala kreditnykh organizatsii («BAZEL III»" and others. On the basis of these documents the work examines and summarizes the main methods of risk management of mortgage lending, such as: comparison and analysis of risk management techniques, study of the basic documents regulating risk management in banks and generalization of risk management methods in the segment of mortgage lending.Results: The article analyzes the legal and methodological basis of risk management and provides practical methods that can be used in practice for managerial decisions in a constantly changing external economic environment. It also analyses international and native risk management. Russian standards of risk-management are compared with international. The work conducts a critical review of the effects of introduction of international standards in Russia. Special attention is paid to the practice of mortgage risk

Risks in nuclear engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindackers, K.H.

1982-01-01

The German nuclear power plant risk assessment study has not contributed to a higher degree of acceptance of light-water reactors among the general public. One reason is the fact that its predictions are much too inaccurate, and the consequences from severe accidents, regardless of their possibly extremely small likelihood, speak for themselves. The work still to be done in Phase B of the risk analysis will only be useful, if the safety factors in risk assessments can be drastically increased. The results of the risk analysis cannot be used in legislation or the administration of justice, because they are too incomplete and inaccurate. Scientific findings in risk analysis show that new designs and new components complicate objective judgement of changes in reactor safety engineering considerably. Every change in the required precautionary safety measures must be carefully considered, and if need be tested under the appropriate conditions. (orig./HSCH) [de

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Muns (Sander)

2016-01-01

markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

A weight restricted DEA model for FMEA risk prioritization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pauli Adriano de Almada Garcia

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present a linear programming (LP approach to risk prioritization in failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA. The LP is a data envelopment analysis (DEA-based model considering weight restriction. In a FMEA, we commonly consider three criteria to prioritize the failure modes, occurrence, severity and detectability. These criteria are in an ordinal scale commonly varying from 1 to 10, higher the figure worse the result. Considering the values established for each criteria, in traditional FMEA one adopts a Risk Priority Number, calculated considering the product of criteria, which has been very criticized due to its shortcoming. Through the proposed approach a frontier is established considering the less critical failure modes. Considering this frontier, one can establish how much each failure mode must be improved to become relatively acceptable. A simplified case concerning an AFWS of a two loops PWR power plant is presented to shows the applicability of the proposed approach.

Quantifying Cardiometabolic Risk Using Modifiable Non–Self-Reported Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2014-01-01

Background Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. Purpose To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non–self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut off points for risk categories. Methods We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14–year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender–specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non–self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high–density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10–year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012–2013. Results HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit χ2=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). Conclusions This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk based on modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual’s commitment to prevention and intervention. PMID:24951039

Quantifying cardiometabolic risk using modifiable non-self-reported risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

2014-08-01

Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non-self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut-off points for risk categories. We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14-year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender-specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non-self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10-year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012-2013. HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit chi-square=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk on the basis of modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual's commitment to prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastaugh, S R

2000-01-01

For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

Endogeneous Risk in Monopolistic Competition

OpenAIRE

Vladislav Damjanovic

2012-01-01

We consider a model of financial intermediation with a monopolistic competition market structure. A non-monotonic relationship between the risk measured as a probability of default and the degree of competition is established.

When Should Abdominal Computed Tomography Be Considered in Patients with Lower Rib Fractures?

Science.gov (United States)

Jeroukhimov, Igor; Hershkovitz, Yehuda; Wiser, Itay; Kessel, Boris; Ayyad, Mohammed; Gatot, Inbar; Shapira, Zahar; Jeoravlev, Svetlana; Halevy, Ariel; Lavy, Ron

2017-05-01

Lower rib fractures are considered as a marker of intra-abdominal organ injury. Abdominal computed tomography (CT) is the "gold standard" examination for patients with lower rib fractures. However, the reported incidence of concomitant intra-abdominal injuries (IAI) is 20%-40%. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the incidence of intra-abdominal organ injuries in blunt trauma patients with lower rib fractures. Medical charts and radiology reports of patients with lower rib (from the 8th to 12th rib) fractures admitted to our center during a 6-year period were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were divided into two groups. Group I included patients with intra-abdominal injury (IAI) diagnosed either by CT or on urgent laparotomy, and Group II included those with normal abdominal CT scans. Data included demographics, mechanism of injury, laboratory tests, radiology results including number and location of fractured ribs, and incidence of IAI. Overall 318 patients were included in the study. Fifty-seven patients (17.9%) had 71 IAIs compared with 265 (82.1%) patients with no IAI. Logistic regression identified age younger than 55 years (relative risk [RR] = 7.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-16.8; p = 0.001), bilateral rib fractures (RR = 3.9; 95% CI 1.1-13.5; p = 0.03) and decreased levels of hematocrit (RR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.2-4.8; p = 0.016) as independent risk factors for the presence of IAI. Abdominal CT should be considered in blunt trauma patients with lower rib fractures who are younger than 55 years of age and have bilateral rib fractures and decreased levels of hematocrit on admission. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the realities of risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1985-01-01

Sufficient experience now exists, especially in the nuclear industry, to consider the progress that has been made toward meaningful tools or aids for the control and, hence, management of risk. The considerable activity in the field of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) suggests a high level of interest and application. It is the purpose of this paper to examine our own experience in this regard and to offer some observations and opinions about current practices in risk management and the requirements for success

Health risks of energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.; Etnier, E.L.

1983-01-01

This volume examines occupational, public health, and environmental risks of the coal fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle, and unconventional energy technologies. The 6 chapters explore in detail the relationship between energy economics and risk analysis, assess the problems of applying traditional cost-benefit analysis to long-term environmental problems (such as global carbon dioxide levels), and consider questions about the public's perception and acceptance of risk. Also included is an examination of the global risks associated with current and proposed levels of energy production and comsumption from all major sources. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 6 chapters; all are included in Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis (EAPA) and four in Energy Research Abstracts

The public perception of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Litai, D.; Lanning, D.D.; Rasmusson, N.C.

1983-01-01

Although the results of this paper are based on some restrictive assumptions and a limited amount of data, the authors nevertheless feel that they form a starting point for some new insights into the difficult problem of how to compare risks that have different characteristics. Today almost all regulatory agencies are facing the difficult question of ''how safe is safe enough.''. Although risk conversion factors may be able to play a useful role in setting safety criteria, it must also be recognized that RCFs as developed here are only a part of what needs to be considered. The RCFs involve only risk comparisons, whereas a safety criterion must surely include not only risk but cost and benefit as well

DIMENSIONS OF THE MARKET RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cornelia Marcela Danu

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The present work presents the concept approach and the types of the market risks, considering the representatives of the two correlative dimensions of the market: the supply and the demand. This approach dissociates from the other ways to define and to manage the market risks by the message that it communicates: all the types of risk caused by the market activities are market risks. These are anthropic risks, based on information and decision. From the point of view of source, the market risks or the decisional risks have the actions of the deciders (natural person or legal person to achieving the personal goals or mission or the objectives of the firm which they represent. The market risks are those which pose a threat to the attainment of the major objectives or purposes and to maximizing of advantages: the utility for the consumer and profit for the enterprise. The results of the dynamic interdependences are determined by the optimal management of each type of risk, taking into account the system of risks and the potential for transformation of the risk-cause in risk-effect and vice versa.

Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

Risk assessment. Report of a Royal Society study group

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-01-01

The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines).

Can Single Positive Core Prostate Cancer at biopsy be Considered a Low-Risk Disease after Radical Prostatectomy?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Kupka da Silva

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose Single positive core in a prostate biopsy is usually associated with indolent prostate cancer (PCa and is one of the active surveillance (AS inclusion criteria. We investigated whether single positive core PCa at biopsy could define an archetype of low-risk disease. Materials and Methods A total of 1320 consecutive patients were enrolled. Among them, 249 patients with single positive core PCa were followed up, and the clinical and pathological parameters influencing prognosis were analyzed. Results Out of the 249 patients, 172 (69.0% had pathological findings ≥ pT2c and 87 (34.9% had an undergraded Gleason Score (GS based on the biopsy. Positive surgical margins (PSMs, extraprostatic extension (EPE and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI were found in 20.8%, 10.0% and 6.0% of patients, respectively. In a comparative analysis, we found that the PSA level, prostate weight and number of cores at biopsy are essential to correctly predict an indolent PCa. A total of 125 patients (67.3% with nonpalpable tumors became high-risk tumors (pT2c-T3. Analyzing only nonpalpable tumors with a GS of 6 at biopsy (156 patients, we noted that 106 (67.9% of cT1 progressed from cT1c to pT2c-pT3. Conclusions Single core PCa have clinically significant disease in the Radical Prostatectomy specimens, with considerable rates of overgrading for the GS, pT2c-pT3, PSMs, EPE and SVI. The treatment plan must be evaluated individually for patients with single core PCa and must take into account other prognostic factors when determining whether a patient should be managed with AS.

A review on risk-constrained hydropower scheduling in deregulated power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hongling, Liu; Chuanwen, Jiang; Yan, Zhang

2008-01-01

In deregulated power market, hydro producer has in principle no other objective than to produce electricity and sell with maximum profit with lower market risk. Attention must focus on profit uncertainty caused by uncertainty in spot prices and reservoir inflow. The purpose of this review is to assess the state-of-the-art in hydropower operations considering profit risk under uncertainty and consider future directions for additional research and application. Physical and financial tools to hedge risk in bilateral market and risk-assessment methods are all discussed in detail. Furthermore, production resources can also be used to manage risk to a certain extent. This concept, when be integrated with variety of risk-management methods under stochastic optimal framework, has operational significance for hydro producer participating in electricity market. (author)

Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features, driver age and risk sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Jolene A; Beanland, Vanessa; Filtness, Ashleigh J

2017-10-03

The ability to detect changing visual information is a vital component of safe driving. In addition to detecting changing visual information, drivers must also interpret its relevance to safety. Environmental changes considered to have high safety relevance will likely demand greater attention and more timely responses than those considered to have lower safety relevance. The aim of this study was to explore factors that are likely to influence perceptions of risk and safety regarding changing visual information in the driving environment. Factors explored were the environment in which the change occurs (i.e., urban vs. rural), the type of object that changes, and the driver's age, experience, and risk sensitivity. Sixty-three licensed drivers aged 18-70 years completed a hazard rating task, which required them to rate the perceived hazardousness of changing specific elements within urban and rural driving environments. Three attributes of potential hazards were systematically manipulated: the environment (urban, rural); the type of object changed (road sign, car, motorcycle, pedestrian, traffic light, animal, tree); and its inherent safety risk (low risk, high risk). Inherent safety risk was manipulated by either varying the object's placement, on/near or away from the road, or altering an infrastructure element that would require a change to driver behavior. Participants also completed two driving-related risk perception tasks, rating their relative crash risk and perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors. Driver age was not significantly associated with hazard ratings, but individual differences in perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors predicted hazard ratings, suggesting that general driving-related risk sensitivity plays a strong role in safety perception. In both urban and rural scenes, there were significant associations between hazard ratings and inherent safety risk, with low-risk changes perceived as consistently less hazardous than high-risk

On the Regulation of Life Safety Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Michael Havbro; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

2015-01-01

. Starting point is taken in a short outline of what is considered to comprise the present best practice rationale for life safety and health risk regulation. Thereafter, based on selected principal examples from different application areas, inconsistencies in present best practice risk quantification...... absolute level of individual life safety risk subject to assessment of acceptability. It is highlighted that a major cause of inconsistency in risk quantifications and comparisons originates from the fact that present regulations partly address societal activities and partly address applied technologies...

Epistemological risk aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ardashkin I.B.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper considers risk in the context of the main characteristics of non-classical epistemology. It states that non-classical epistemology is characterized by transformation, according to which the major priority of cognitive activity shifts the focus from the present to the past. In this situation a subject is keen not on what he or she has learnt but on what can be learnt. Truth being a crucial criterion of scientific knowledge is becoming of less priority, while risk is becoming more and more significant and acts as one of the major epistemology measurements. Risk is gaining the status of epistemological phenomenon, which shows a growing degree of uncertainty as a cognitive process background and the necessity for a subject to learn the world (make decisions under the conditions of uncertainty degree strengthening. The author states that risk is a comprehensive notion and it obtains a base value for all other aspects of its application, specifically, in the role of epistemological phenomenon.

Risks of mammograms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swartz, H.M.; Reichling, B.A.

1977-01-01

In summary, the following practical guidelines for mammography are offered: 1. Any woman, regardless of age, with signs or symptoms that indicate breast cancer should have a mammogram. 2. A woman who has a high risk for breast cancer (e.g., strong family history, no pregnancy before 30 years of age, or a previous breast cancer) should receive periodic screening examinations, including mammography. 3. Periodic screening for asymptomatic women over the age of 50 is indicated. 4. The value of periodic screening for asymptomatic women who are not considered to be at high risk and are under the age of 50 years is not established. Such screening should be carried out only when useful data can be collected on the benefits and risks of this procedure. 5. For any individual woman, the risk of inducing breast cancer by mammography is very low. 6. Mammograms should be made only with modern equipment and techniques designed to provide optimum information with minimal dose

'Directing minds' have much to consider.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-01

The potential pitfalls for health estates, board-level, and other senior healthcare personnel should proper health and safety and risk assessment procedures not be set out, followed, recorded, and regularly reviewed, and the legal ramifications of any failure of duty under legislation such as the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974 and the Corporate Manslaughter Act of 2007, were examined at a recent IHEEM risk seminar in London. In the first of two articles (the second will appear in October's issue) covering the event, HEJ reports on a specialist lawyer's overview.

Provider-based Medicare risk contracting and subcontracting: opportunities and risks for provider sponsored organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, H A; Zenner, P A; Kipp, R A; Whitney, E L

1997-01-01

Provider sponsored organizations (PSOs) are increasingly acquiring the risk for the management of Medicare Risk patients by accepting capitation directly from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) or through contracts with HMOs or other organizations contracting with HCFA. The Medicare population and the requirements that the federal administration has put into place with respect to risk contracting are unique and demand specific responses on the part of the PSO for a contract to be successful. The PSO is cautioned to understand the actuarial risk, the clinical uniqueness of the Medicare beneficiary, Medicare reimbursement regulatory requirements, utilization management needs, and necessary reporting before entering into a contractual arrangement. This article attempts to describe some of the more common issues a provider organization must consider.

Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Teenage Pregnancy: Consider the Options

Science.gov (United States)

... poverty, and are at risk of domestic violence. Children of teen parents also are more likely to have health and learning impairment conditions and are more likely to be neglected or abused. Girls born to teen parents are more likely ...

RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND PRACTICES IN IT PROJECTS

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BRANDAS Claudiu

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Risk is identified in project management literature as an important factor influencing IT projects success, and it is relevant for both academic and practitionersn#8217; communities. The paper presents the past and current approaches to risk management in IT projects. The objective of this paper is to compare the different approaches and relate them to existing practices. Project management literature and practice have brought different approaches to risk management, and as a result, many projects ended in failure. We present how risk management is considered in the literature, and we compare the main two approaches: the evaluation approach and the management approach. The contingency approach does not consider risk management to be a specific process as it is an embedded process in the other project management processes. Then, we present the main practices in risk management. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2011 from the main journals for IT project management and found out that the essence of project management is risk management. The risk management practices have a considerable influence on stakeholdersn#8217; perception of project success. But, regardless of the chosen approach, a standard method for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks should be included in any project as this influences the outcome of the project.

Importance of whole-farm risk management in agriculture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huirne, R.B.M.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

2007-01-01

Risk management is an increasingly important topic. At the farm level, it received little attention in Europe. Research indicates that whole-farm riskmanagement approaches, that is approaches in which multiple risks and farm activities are considered simultaneously, seem more efficient than `single

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new

ANTESEDEN PERCEIVED RISK PADA PURCHASE INTENTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dewi Sri Rejeki

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of perceived risk to purchase intention  private label products in Indonesia modern market. This study used primary data sources obtained directly by distributing questionnaires using purposive sampling techniques, gathered 200 respondents with minimum criteria of period at least 18 years while maximum of period is > 61 years and have bought private label products. The dependent variable in this study is purchase intention, while independent variables are considered functional risk, perceived financial risk, physical risk, and perception of psychological risk. Data analysis use Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. The results indicate that there was a negative effect on financial risk, the perceived physical risk to buy an interest in functional perception, the psychological risk has no effect on purchase intention on private label product. The implications for the manager is to increase consumer buying intentions by taking into account factors such as perceptions of financial risk and perceptions of physical risk.

Radiation. Doses, effect, risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vapirev, E.; Todorov, P.

1994-12-01

This book outlines in a popular form the topic of ionizing radiation impacts on living organisms. It contains data gathered by ICRP for a period of 35 years. The essential dosimetry terms and units are presented. Natural and artificial sources of ionizing radiation are described. Possible biological radiation effects and diseases as a consequence of external and internal irradiation at normal and accidental conditions are considered. An assessment of genetic risk for human populations is presented and the concept of 'acceptable risk' is discussed

MARKET INSURANCE AND RISKS IN THIS FIELD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ersilia Catrina

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The insurance market can be considered a market where all sorts of anomalies can be encountered or a current acquisition for a situation considered to be certain or relative future, depending on the type of insurance. For the most part, assurance is based on a premise, a hypothesis that is generally based on several factors of influence. Generally, the most important factors in making such a decision are generated by the human-sensitive factor or the economicprotective. Therefore, by joining the insurance market and purchasing any kind of insurance, we must also take into account the risks that arise from these products. Generally, most people perceive these insurance policies in different areas as a future guarantee without considering additional elements that can highlight risk elements that may alter the expected outcome of the acquirer. An important element to mitigate these risks would be the implementation and use of internal control over the supply chain, control that would make a difference between an activity under normal, predictable and legal conditions and a random activity with many elements of risk that can cause major damage to those involved, and to the insurer and the insured. Through this paper, the author aimed to highlight the importance of internal control in insurance companies, as well as the consequences of the lack of internal control within these societies

Quantitative Identification of Construction Risk

OpenAIRE

Kasprowicz T.

2017-01-01

Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and...

Considering Time-Dependency of Social Vulnerability in Crisis Modeling and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Aubrecht, C.; Steinnocher, K.; Freire, S.; Loibl, W.; Peters-Anders, J.; Ungar, J.

2012-04-01

Crisis and disaster management is much more than the immediate first-response actions following an incident. In many projects the main focus has been on the phase starting at the point when an unwanted event happens and lasting until the activities return to normal routines (i.e., ad hoc reaction rather than proactive mitigation). There has been less emphasis on the other phases of the disaster management cycle such as prevention, preparedness, recovery and reconstruction, even though those phases have a strong influence on the general status of a society and its citizens. Especially the potential of a crisis to escalate into a large-scale disaster is heavily dependent on the overall level of preparedness as well as on the planning of mitigation and response actions and their timely execution. There is a need for improved decision-making support that enables modeling of different crisis scenarios and their impacts according to chosen prevention and response actions. Vulnerability describing the status of a society with respect to an imposed hazard or potential impact is considered a strongly multidisciplinary concept. A central objective of vulnerability assessment is to provide indications where and how people - and more specifically, what kind of people - might be affected by a certain impact. Results should provide decision- and policy-makers with supporting information to target response and mitigation actions adequately. For assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure mapping is usually considered the starting point. Integration of social structure and varying aspects of resilience further differentiate situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. In a disaster risk management context, assessment of human vulnerability has generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective integrated risk analysis

RISK-DET : ICT Security Awareness Aspect Combining Education and Cognitive Sciences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaff, Guillaume; Harpes, Carlo; Aubigny, Matthieu; Junger, Marianne; Martin, Romain; Leist, Arno; Pankowski, Tadeusz

2014-01-01

This paper explains the main innovation of a risk assessment tool, called RISK-DET, which will include an ICT risk awareness aspect supported by a specific application: Voozio 2.0. The design of the RISK-DET tool considers the implementation of the emergent ICT (Information and Communication

Control criteria for residual contamination in materials considered for recycle and reuse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, W.E. Jr.; Hill, R.L.; Aaberg, R.L.

1993-11-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is collecting data and conducting technical analyses to support the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Guidance, Air, Water, and Radiation Division (DOE/EH-232) in determining the feasibility of developing radiological control criteria for recycling or reuse of metals or equipment containing residual radioactive contamination from DOE operations. The criteria, framed as acceptable concentrations for release of materials for recycling or reuse, will be risk-based and will be developed through analysis of radiation exposure scenarios and pathways. The analysis will include evaluation of relevant radionuclides, potential mechanisms of exposure, and non-health-related impacts of residual radioactivity on electronics and film. The analyses will consider 42 key radionuclides that are generated during DOE operations and may be contained in recycled or reused metals or equipment

Measuring social risk and determining its acceptability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lathrop, J.W.

1978-01-01

The implementation of a nuclear waste management technology raises several issues concerning the regulation of social risk. This paper presents a decision analytic approach to resolving some of those issues. A methodology for developing a radiological risk measure is presented, and several approaches to defining acceptable levels of that risk measure are considered. The methodology presented is oriented toward the development of radiological performance objectives for use as guidance in the drafting of regulations

Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernhard M Riegl

Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1997-01-01

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

CERN Document Server

Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2015-01-01

Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

Siting analysis and risk assessment for small single-purpose heating reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarjanne, R.

1979-04-01

Two alternative sites both 10km away from the centre of Helsinki are considered for reactor unit sizes of 400mw and 800mw. The risks associated with a small single-purpose heating reactor is evaluated for normal operation and accident conditions. The evaluation for accident condition is performed for three characteristics accidents. Three pathways are considered in the calculation of the radiation exposure: direct external gamma dose from the release plume, direct gamma radiation from deposited activity on the ground and dose due to inhalation. The risks are compared with the risks from alternative conventional fossil fuelled district heat production methods. The results show that the heating reactor alternative causes an unsignificant risk, which is far less than the risk caused by the fossil-fuelled alternatives

A Generalization of the Aumann-Shapley Value for Risk Capital Allocation Problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonen, T.J.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Norde, H.W.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper analyzes risk capital allocation problems. For risk capital allocation problems, the aim is to allocate the risk capital of a firm to its divisions. Risk capital allocation is of central importance in risk-based performance measurement. We consider a case in which the aggregate

A Risk Management Approach for a Sustainable Cloud Migration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alifah Aida Lope Abdul Rahman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Cloud computing is not just about resource sharing, cost savings and optimisation of business performance; it also involves fundamental concerns on how businesses need to respond on the risks and challenges upon migration. Managing risks is critical for a sustainable cloud adoption. It includes several dimensions such as cost, practising the concept of green IT, data quality, continuity of services to users and clients, guarantee tangible benefits. This paper presents a risk management approach for a sustainable cloud migration. We consider four dimensions of sustainability, i.e., economic, environmental, social and technology to determine the viability of cloud for the business context. The risks are systematically identified and analysed based on the existing in house controls and the cloud service provider offerings. We use Dempster Shafer (D-S theory to measure the adequacy of controls and apply semi-quantitative approach to perform risk analysis based on the theory of belief. The risk exposure for each sustainability dimension allows us to determine the viability of cloud migration. A practical migration use case is considered to determine the applicability of our work. The results identify the risk exposure and recommended control for the risk mitigation. We conclude that risks depend on specific migration case and both Cloud Service Provider (CSP and users are responsible for the risk mitigation. Inherent risks can evolve due to the cloud migration.

Biobehavioral Risk Factors in Children of Schizophrenic Parents.

Science.gov (United States)

Erlenmeyer-Kimling, L.; Cornblatt, Barbara

1984-01-01

Research on risk factors for schizophrenia is reviewed with emphasis on children of schizophrenic parents. Four areas of biobehavioral functioning that have been examined in high-risk research are discussed. Three of these are considered compatible with hypothesis neurointegrative defect underlying schizophrenic-proneness. (Author/CL)

A positive risk approach when clients choose to live at risk: a palliative case discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

De Bono, Christopher E; Henry, Blair

2016-09-01

The article discusses recent approaches in the literature about clients who chose to live at risk in their homes. It argues for a positive risk-based approach and a tool to help manage risk in the home, and applies these to a hypothetical end-of-life scenario. Historically, safety plans to consider risk management involved a culture of risk aversion supported by sometimes paternalistic motives intended to protect vulnerable clients. New findings in the literature engage in a process that respects the ethical principles underlying harm reduction philosophies. The literature also argues for a perspective that moves away from viewing risk as only harmful, to one that supports a positive understanding of risk as part of a client's informed choice. A risk support management plan, based on a positive approach, can provide a way to both support a client's choice to live at risk, anticipate for expected complications, and inform the creation of a contingency plan to address concerns as they may arise. The added value of a structured approach like the one proposed here for risk support management plans is that it provides adequate due diligence and informed decision-making when planning for risk-taking in complex situations.