Visualizing Decision Trees in Games to Support Children's Analytic Reasoning: Any Negative Effects on Gameplay?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Haworth

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The popularity and usage of digital games has increased in recent years, bringing further attention to their design. Some digital games require a significant use of higher order thought processes, such as problem solving and reflective and analytical thinking. Through the use of appropriate and interactive representations, these thought processes could be supported. A visualization of the game's internal structure is an example of this. However, it is unknown whether including these extra representations will have a negative effect on gameplay. To investigate this issue, a digital maze-like game was designed with its underlying structure represented as a decision tree. A qualitative, exploratory study with children was performed to examine whether the tree supported their thought processes and what effects, if any, the tree had on gameplay. This paper reports the findings of this research and discusses the implications for the design of games in general.

RAFT: a computer program for fault tree risk calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seybold, G.D.

1977-11-01

A description and user instructions are presented for RAFT, a FORTRAN computer code for calculation of a risk measure for fault tree cut sets. RAFT calculates release quantities and a risk measure based on the product of probability and release quantity for cut sets of fault trees modeling the accidental release of radioactive material from a nuclear fuel cycle facility. Cut sets and their probabilities are supplied as input to RAFT from an external fault tree analysis code. Using the total inventory available of radioactive material, along with release fractions for each event in a cut set, the release terms are calculated for each cut set. Each release term is multiplied by the cut set probability to yield the cut set risk measure. RAFT orders the dominant cut sets on the risk measure. The total risk measure of processed cut sets and their fractional contributions are supplied as output. Input options are available to eliminate redundant cut sets, apply threshold values on cut set probability and risk, and control the total number of cut sets output. Hash addressing is used to remove redundant cut sets from the analysis. Computer hardware and software restrictions are given along with a sample problem and cross-reference table of the code. Except for the use of file management utilities, RAFT is written exclusively in FORTRAN language and is operational on a Control Data, CYBER 74-18--series computer system. 4 figures

Analytic continuation of dual Feynman amplitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bleher, P.M.

1981-01-01

A notion of dual Feynman amplitude is introduced and a theorem on the existence of analytic continuation of this amplitude from the convergence domain to the whole complex is proved. The case under consideration corresponds to massless power propagators and the analytic continuation is constructed on the propagators powers. Analytic continuation poles and singular set of external impulses are found explicitly. The proof of the theorem on the existence of analytic continuation is based on the introduction of α-representation for dual Feynman amplitudes. In proving, the so-called ''trees formula'' and ''trees-with-cycles formula'' are established that are dual by formulation to the trees and 2-trees formulae for usual Feynman amplitudes. (Auth.)

Analytical method for the evaluation of the outdoor air contamination by emerging pollutants using tree leaves as bioindicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Barroso, Pedro José; Martín, Julia; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

2018-01-01

In this work, an analytical method, based on sonication-assisted extraction, clean-up by dispersive solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, has been developed and validated for the simultaneous determination of 15 emerging pollutants in leaves from four ornamental tree species. Target compounds include perfluorinated organic compounds, plasticizers, surfactants, brominated flame retardant, and preservatives. The method was optimized using Box-Behnken statistical experimental design with response surface methodology and validated in terms of recovery, accuracy, precision, and method detection and quantification limits. Quantification of target compounds was carried out using matrix-matched calibration curves. The highest recoveries were achieved for the perfluorinated organic compounds (mean values up to 87%) and preservatives (up to 88%). The lowest recoveries were achieved for plasticizers (51%) and brominated flame retardant (63%). Method detection and quantification limits were in the ranges 0.01-0.09 ng/g dry matter (dm) and 0.02-0.30 ng/g dm, respectively, for most of the target compounds. The method was successfully applied to the determination of the target compounds on leaves from four tree species used as urban ornamental trees (Citrus aurantium, Celtis australis, Platanus hispanica, and Jacaranda mimosifolia). Graphical abstract Analytical method for the biomonitorization of emerging pollutants in outdoor air.

HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

1990-01-01

In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

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van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

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Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

2015-03-01

A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

Review of the severe accident risk reduction program (SARRP) containment event trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-05-01

A part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have constructed a group of containment event trees to be used in the analysis of key accident sequences for light water reactors (LWR) during postulated severe accidents. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide to the NRC staff a current assessment of the risk from severe reactor accidents for a group of five light water reactors. This review specifically focuses on the development and construction of the containment event trees and the results for containment failure probability, modes and timing. The report first gives the background on the program, the review criteria, and a summary of the observations, findings and recommendations. secondly, the individual reviews of each committee member on the event trees is presented. Finally, a review is provided on the computer model used to construct and evaluate the event trees

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach.

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Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

2009-11-22

Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

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Christensen Helen

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. Results The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. Conclusion The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

Application gives the technique the analytic tree in the evaluation the effectiveness programs to radiological protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Gonzalez, F.; Perez Velazquez, R.S.; Fornet Rodriguez, O.; Mustelier Hechevarria, A.; Miller Clemente, A.

1998-01-01

In the work we develop the IAEA recommendations in the application the analytic tree as instrument for the evaluation the effectiveness the occupational radiological protection programs. Is reflected like it has been assimilated and converted that technique in daily work istruments in the evaluation process the security conditions in the institutions that apply the nuclear techniques with a view to its autorization on the part of the regulatory organ

Water transport through tall trees: A vertically-explicit, analytical model of xylem hydraulic conductance in stems.

Science.gov (United States)

Couvreur, Valentin; Ledder, Glenn; Manzoni, Stefano; Way, Danielle A; Muller, Erik B; Russo, Sabrina E

2018-05-08

Trees grow by vertically extending their stems, so accurate stem hydraulic models are fundamental to understanding the hydraulic challenges faced by tall trees. Using a literature survey, we showed that many tree species exhibit continuous vertical variation in hydraulic traits. To examine the effects of this variation on hydraulic function, we developed a spatially-explicit, analytical water transport model for stems. Our model allows Huber ratio, stem-saturated conductivity, pressure at 50% loss of conductivity, leaf area, and transpiration rate to vary continuously along the hydraulic path. Predictions from our model differ from a matric flux potential model parameterized with uniform traits. Analyses show that cavitation is a whole-stem emergent property resulting from nonlinear pressure-conductivity feedbacks that, with gravity, cause impaired water transport to accumulate along the path. Because of the compounding effects of vertical trait variation on hydraulic function, growing proportionally more sapwood and building tapered xylem with height, as well as reducing xylem vulnerability only at branch tips while maintaining transport capacity at the stem base, can compensate for these effects. We therefore conclude that the adaptive significance of vertical variation in stem hydraulic traits is to allow trees to grow tall and tolerate operating near their hydraulic limits. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

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Mohamadfam

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

The Ethics of Using Learning Analytics to Categorize Students on Risk

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Scholes, Vanessa

2016-01-01

There are good reasons for higher education institutions to use learning analytics to risk-screen students. Institutions can use learning analytics to better predict which students are at greater risk of dropping out or failing, and use the statistics to treat "risky" students differently. This paper analyses this practice using…

A broad scale analysis of tree risk, mitigation and potential habitat for cavity-nesting birds

Science.gov (United States)

Brian Kane; Paige S. Warren; Susannah B. Lerman

2015-01-01

Trees in towns and cities provide habitat for wildlife. In particular, cavity-nesting birds nest in the deadand decayed stems and branches of these trees. The same dead and decayed stems and branches alsohave a greater likelihood of failure, which, in some circumstances, increases risk. We examined 1760trees in Baltimore, MD, USA and western MA, USA, assessing tree...

Malignancy Risk Assessment in Patients with Thyroid Nodules Using Classification and Regression Trees

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Shokouh Taghipour Zahir

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. We sought to investigate the utility of classification and regression trees (CART classifier to differentiate benign from malignant nodules in patients referred for thyroid surgery. Methods. Clinical and demographic data of 271 patients referred to the Sadoughi Hospital during 2006–2011 were collected. In a two-step approach, a CART classifier was employed to differentiate patients with a high versus low risk of thyroid malignancy. The first step served as the screening procedure and was tailored to produce as few false negatives as possible. The second step identified those with the lowest risk of malignancy, chosen from a high risk population. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV of the optimal tree were calculated. Results. In the first step, age, sex, and nodule size contributed to the optimal tree. Ultrasonographic features were employed in the second step with hypoechogenicity and/or microcalcifications yielding the highest discriminatory ability. The combined tree produced a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0% (95% CI: 29.9–98.9 and 94.1% (95% CI: 78.9–99.0, respectively. NPV and PPV were 66.7% (41.1–85.6 and 97.0% (82.5–99.8, respectively. Conclusion. CART classifier reliably identifies patients with a low risk of malignancy who can avoid unnecessary surgery.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

2012-01-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

Security and Risk Analysis of Nuclear Safeguards Instruments Using Attack Trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naumann, I.; Wishard, B.

2015-01-01

The IAEA's nuclear safeguards instruments must be frequently evaluated against attack vectors, which are extremely varied and, at first approximation, may seem inconsequential, but are not. To accurately analyze the impact of attacks on a multi-component system requires a highly structured and well-documented assessment. Tree structures, such as fault trees, have long been used to assess the consequences of selecting potential solutions and their impact on risk. When applied to security threats by introducing threat agents (adversaries) and vulnerabilities, this approach can be extremely valuable in uncovering previously unidentified risks and identifying mitigation steps. This paper discusses how attack trees can be used for the security analysis of nuclear safeguards instruments. The root node of such a tree represents an objective that negatively impacts security such as disclosing and/or falsifying instrument data or circumventing safeguards methods. Usually, this objective is rather complex and attaining it requires a combination of several security breaches which may vary on how much funding or what capabilities are required in order to execute them. Thus, it is necessary to break the root objective into smaller, less complex units. Once a leaf node describes a reasonably comprehensible action, it is the security experts' task to allocate levels of difficulty and funding to this node. Eventually, the paths from the leaf nodes to the root node describe all possible combinations of actions necessary to carry out a successful attack. The use of a well-structured attack tree facilitates the developer in thinking like the adversary providing more effective security solutions. (author)

Risk analytics for hedge funds

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Pareek, Ankur

2005-05-01

The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

Use of the analytical tree technique to develop a radiological protection program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domenech N, H.; Jova S, L.

1996-01-01

The results obtained by the Cuban Center for Radiological Protection and Hygiene by using an analytical tree technique to develop its general operational radiation protection program are presented. By the application of this method, some factors such as the organization of the radiation protection services, the provision of administrative requirements, the existing general laboratories requirements, the viability of resources and the current documentation was evaluated. Main components were considered such as: complete normative and regulatory documentation; automatic radiological protection data management; scope of 'on the-job'and radiological protection training for the personnel; previous radiological appraisal for the safety performance of the works and application of dose constrains for the personnel and the public. The detailed development of the program allowed to identify the basic aims to be achieved in its maintenance and improvement. (authors). 3 refs

Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

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Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

2018-03-01

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

A Study on Landslide Risk Management by Applying Fault Tree Logics

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Kazmi Danish

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Slope stability is one of the focal areas of curiosity to geotechnical designers and also appears logical for the application of probabilistic approaches since the analysis lead to a “probability of failure”. Assessment of the existing slopes in relation with risks seems to be more meaningful when concerning with landslides. Probabilistic slope stability analysis (PSSA is the best option in covering the landslides events. The intent here is to bid a probabilistic framework for quantified risk analysis with human uncertainties. In this regard, Fault Tree Analysis is utilized and for prediction of risk levels, consequences of the failures of the reference landslides have been taken. It is concluded that logics of fault trees is best fit, to clinch additional categories of uncertainty; like human, organizational, and knowledge related. In actual, the approach has been used in bringing together engineering and management performances and personnel, to produce reliability in slope engineering practices.

Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis

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Objective: To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. Methods: The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to con...

Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

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Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

2012-01-01

At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

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Jianbo Huang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

The Studies of Decision Tree in Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk by Using Polymorphism Nucleotide

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Frida Seyedmir

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction:   Decision tree is the data mining tools to collect, accurate prediction and sift information from massive amounts of data that are used widely in the field of computational biology and bioinformatics. In bioinformatics can be predict on diseases, including breast cancer. The use of genomic data including single nucleotide polymorphisms is a very important factor in predicting the risk of diseases. The number of seven important SNP among hundreds of thousands genetic markers were identified as factors associated with breast cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the training data on decision tree predictor error of the risk of breast cancer by using single nucleotide polymorphism genotype. Methods: The risk of breast cancer were calculated associated with the use of SNP formula:xj = fo * In human,  The decision tree can be used To predict the probability of disease using single nucleotide polymorphisms .Seven SNP with different odds ratio associated with breast cancer considered and coding and design of decision tree model, C4.5, by  Csharp2013 programming language were done. In the decision tree created with the coding, the four important associated SNP was considered. The decision tree error in two case of coding and using WEKA were assessment and percentage of decision tree accuracy in prediction of breast cancer were calculated. The number of trained samples was obtained with systematic sampling. With coding, two scenarios as well as software WEKA, three scenarios with different sets of data and the number of different learning and testing, were evaluated. Results: In both scenarios of coding, by increasing the training percentage from 66/66 to 86/42, the error reduced from 55/56 to 9/09. Also by running of WEKA on three scenarios with different sets of data, the number of different education, and different tests by increasing records number from 81 to 2187, the error rate decreased from 48/15 to 13

Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

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Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

Maintenance cost, toppling risk and size of trees in a self-thinning stand.

Science.gov (United States)

Larjavaara, Markku

2010-07-07

Wind routinely topples trees during storms, and the likelihood that a tree is toppled depends critically on its allometry. Yet none of the existing theories to explain tree allometry consider wind drag on tree canopies. Since leaf area index in crowded, self-thinning stands is independent of stand density, the drag force per unit land can also be assumed to be independent of stand density, with only canopy height influencing the total toppling moment. Tree stem dimensions and the self-thinning biomass can then be computed by further assuming that the risk of toppling over and stem maintenance per unit land area are independent of stand density, and that stem maintenance cost is a linear function of stem surface area and sapwood volume. These assumptions provide a novel way to understand tree allometry and lead to a self-thinning line relating tree biomass and stand density with a power between -3/2 and -2/3 depending on the ratio of maintenance of sapwood and stem surface. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

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Frank eSterck

2016-05-01

Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

2016-12-15

With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

2016-01-01

With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA for Environmental Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Li

2016-12-01

Full Text Available With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

Risk management guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briscoe, G.J.

1977-06-01

Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

The risk factors of laryngeal pathology in Korean adults using a decision tree model.

Science.gov (United States)

Byeon, Haewon

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors affecting laryngeal pathology in the Korean population and to evaluate the derived prediction model. Cross-sectional study. Data were drawn from the 2008 Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. The subjects were 3135 persons (1508 male and 2114 female) aged 19 years and older living in the community. The independent variables were age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, and self-reported voice problems. A decision tree analysis was done to identify risk factors for predicting a model of laryngeal pathology. The significant risk factors of laryngeal pathology were age, gender, occupation, smoking, and self-reported voice problem in decision tree model. Four significant paths were identified in the decision tree model for the prediction of laryngeal pathology. Those identified as high risk groups for laryngeal pathology included those who self-reported a voice problem, those who were males in their 50s who did not recognize a voice problem, those who were not economically active males in their 40s, and male workers aged 19 and over and under 50 or 60 and over who currently smoked. The results of this study suggest that individual risk factors, such as age, sex, occupation, health behavior, and self-reported voice problem, affect the onset of laryngeal pathology in a complex manner. Based on the results of this study, early management of the high-risk groups is needed for the prevention of laryngeal pathology. Copyright © 2015 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

2004-07-01

This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.

Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

2004-07-01

This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard

Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P

2017-11-01

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

Risk Factors of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Logistic Regression Tree Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yamashita, Takashi; Noe, Douglas A.; Bailer, A. John

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: A novel logistic regression tree-based method was applied to identify fall risk factors and possible interaction effects of those risk factors. Design and Methods: A nationally representative sample of American older adults aged 65 years and older (N = 9,592) in the Health and Retirement Study 2004 and 2006 modules was used.…

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

2017-01-01

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

TreePlus: interactive exploration of networks with enhanced tree layouts.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Bongshin; Parr, Cynthia S; Plaisant, Catherine; Bederson, Benjamin B; Veksler, Vladislav D; Gray, Wayne D; Kotfila, Christopher

2006-01-01

Despite extensive research, it is still difficult to produce effective interactive layouts for large graphs. Dense layout and occlusion make food webs, ontologies, and social networks difficult to understand and interact with. We propose a new interactive Visual Analytics component called TreePlus that is based on a tree-style layout. TreePlus reveals the missing graph structure with visualization and interaction while maintaining good readability. To support exploration of the local structure of the graph and gathering of information from the extensive reading of labels, we use a guiding metaphor of "Plant a seed and watch it grow." It allows users to start with a node and expand the graph as needed, which complements the classic overview techniques that can be effective at (but often limited to) revealing clusters. We describe our design goals, describe the interface, and report on a controlled user study with 28 participants comparing TreePlus with a traditional graph interface for six tasks. In general, the advantage of TreePlus over the traditional interface increased as the density of the displayed data increased. Participants also reported higher levels of confidence in their answers with TreePlus and most of them preferred TreePlus.

The Combined Application of Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation in Generation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun

2009-01-01

The paper describes a few ideas developed for the framework to quantify human errors taking place during the test and maintenance (T and M) in a secondary system of nuclear power plants, which was presented in the previous meeting. GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) is composed of four essential components, the human error interpreter, the frequency estimator, the risk estimator, and the derate estimator. The proposed GRA gave emphasis on explicitly considering human errors, performing fault tree analysis including the entire balance-of-plant side, and quantifying electric loss under abnormal plant configurations. In terms of the consideration of human errors, it was hard to distinguish the effects of human errors from other failure modes in the conventional GRA because the human errors were implicitly involved in mechanical failure mode. Since the risk estimator in GRA-HRE separately deals with the basic events representing human error modes such as control failure, wrong object, omission, wrong action, etc., we can recognize their relative importance comparing with other types of mechanical failures. Other specialties in GRA-HRE came from the combined application of fault tree analysis and turbine cycle simulation. The previous study suggested that we would use the fault tree analysis with the top events designated by system's malfunction such as 'feedwater system failure' to develop the risk estimator. However, this approach could not clearly provide the path of propagation of human errors, and it was difficult to present the failure logics in some cases. In order to overcome these bottlenecks, the paper is going to propose the modified idea to setup top events and to explain how to make use of turbine cycle simulation to complete the fault trees in a cooperative manner

Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars

2012-01-01

Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Feon W; Gao, Xiang; Bao, Le; Mitchell, Diane C; Wood, Craig; Sliwinski, Martin J; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen; Still, Christopher D; Rolston, David D K; Jensen, Gordon L

2017-07-01

To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to construct a risk stratification algorithm for developing functional limitation based on BMI and other potential risk factors for disability in 1,951 older adults without functional limitations at baseline (baseline age 73.1 ± 4.2 y). We also analyzed the data with multivariate stepwise logistic regression and compared the two approaches (e.g., cross-validation). Over a mean of 9.2 ± 1.7 years of follow-up, 221 individuals developed functional limitation. Higher BMI, age, and comorbidity were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline using both methods. Based on these factors, individuals were stratified into four risk groups via the conditional inference tree analysis. Compared to the low-risk group, all other groups had a significantly higher risk of developing functional limitation. The odds ratio comparing two extreme categories was 9.09 (95% confidence interval: 4.68, 17.6). Higher BMI, age, and comorbid disease were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline among older individuals across all approaches and analyses. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

The individual and interactive effects of tree-tree establishment competition and fire on savanna structure and dynamics

OpenAIRE

Calabrese, Justin; Vázquez, Federico; López, Cristóbal; San Miguel, Maxi; Grimm, Volker

2010-01-01

The mechanisms regulating savanna tree populations are still not well understood. Recent empirical work suggests that both tree-tree competition and fire are key factors in semi-arid to mesic savannas. However, the potential for competition to structure savannas, particularly in interaction with fire, has received little theoretical attention. We develop a minimalistic and analytically tractable stochastic cellular automaton to study the individual and combined effects of competition and fire...

Genetically engineered trees for plantation forests: key considerations for environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Häggman, Hely; Raybould, Alan; Borem, Aluizio; Fox, Thomas; Handley, Levis; Hertzberg, Magnus; Lu, Meng-Zu; Macdonald, Philip; Oguchi, Taichi; Pasquali, Giancarlo; Pearson, Les; Peter, Gary; Quemada, Hector; Séguin, Armand; Tattersall, Kylie; Ulian, Eugênio; Walter, Christian; McLean, Morven

2013-09-01

Forests are vital to the world's ecological, social, cultural and economic well-being yet sustainable provision of goods and services from forests is increasingly challenged by pressures such as growing demand for wood and other forest products, land conversion and degradation, and climate change. Intensively managed, highly productive forestry incorporating the most advanced methods for tree breeding, including the application of genetic engineering (GE), has tremendous potential for producing more wood on less land. However, the deployment of GE trees in plantation forests is a controversial topic and concerns have been particularly expressed about potential harms to the environment. This paper, prepared by an international group of experts in silviculture, forest tree breeding, forest biotechnology and environmental risk assessment (ERA) that met in April 2012, examines how the ERA paradigm used for GE crop plants may be applied to GE trees for use in plantation forests. It emphasizes the importance of differentiating between ERA for confined field trials of GE trees, and ERA for unconfined or commercial-scale releases. In the case of the latter, particular attention is paid to characteristics of forest trees that distinguish them from shorter-lived plant species, the temporal and spatial scale of forests, and the biodiversity of the plantation forest as a receiving environment. © 2013 ILSI Research Foundation. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fragmentation of random trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalay, Z; Ben-Naim, E

2015-01-01

We study fragmentation of a random recursive tree into a forest by repeated removal of nodes. The initial tree consists of N nodes and it is generated by sequential addition of nodes with each new node attaching to a randomly-selected existing node. As nodes are removed from the tree, one at a time, the tree dissolves into an ensemble of separate trees, namely, a forest. We study statistical properties of trees and nodes in this heterogeneous forest, and find that the fraction of remaining nodes m characterizes the system in the limit N→∞. We obtain analytically the size density ϕ s of trees of size s. The size density has power-law tail ϕ s ∼s −α with exponent α=1+(1/m). Therefore, the tail becomes steeper as further nodes are removed, and the fragmentation process is unusual in that exponent α increases continuously with time. We also extend our analysis to the case where nodes are added as well as removed, and obtain the asymptotic size density for growing trees. (paper)

Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorton, Dan

2014-09-01

The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

Science.gov (United States)

Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

2016-12-01

The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

An algorithm for sequential tail value at risk for path-independent payoffs in a binomial tree

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roorda, Berend

2010-01-01

We present an algorithm that determines Sequential Tail Value at Risk (STVaR) for path-independent payoffs in a binomial tree. STVaR is a dynamic version of Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) characterized by the property that risk levels at any moment must be in the range of risk levels later on. The

An overview of decision tree applied to power systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Leo; Rather, Zakir Hussain; Chen, Zhe

2013-01-01

The corrosive volume of available data in electric power systems motivate the adoption of data mining techniques in the emerging field of power system data analytics. The mainstream of data mining algorithm applied to power system, Decision Tree (DT), also named as Classification And Regression...... Tree (CART), has gained increasing interests because of its high performance in terms of computational efficiency, uncertainty manageability, and interpretability. This paper presents an overview of a variety of DT applications to power systems for better interfacing of power systems with data...... analytics. The fundamental knowledge of CART algorithm is also introduced which is then followed by examples of both classification tree and regression tree with the help of case study for security assessment of Danish power system....

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Investigation of Lab Fire Prevention Management System of Combining Root Cause Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process with Event Tree Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Chan Shih

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposed a new approach, combining root cause analysis (RCA, analytic hierarchy process (AHP, and event tree analysis (ETA in a loop to systematically evaluate various laboratory safety prevention strategies. First, 139 fire accidents were reviewed to identify the root causes and draw out prevention strategies. Most fires were caused due to runaway reactions, operation error and equipment failure, and flammable material release. These mostly occurred in working places of no prompt fire protection. We also used AHP to evaluate the priority of these strategies and found that chemical fire prevention strategy is the most important control element, and strengthening maintenance and safety inspection intensity is the most important action. Also together with our surveys results, we proposed that equipment design is also critical for fire prevention. Therefore a technical improvement was propounded: installing fire detector, automatic sprinkler, and manual extinguisher in the lab hood as proactive fire protections. ETA was then used as a tool to evaluate laboratory fire risks. The results indicated that the total risk of a fire occurring decreases from 0.0351 to 0.0042 without/with equipment taking actions. Establishing such system can make Environment, Health and Safety (EH&S office not only analyze and prioritize fire prevention policies more practically, but also demonstrate how effective protective equipment improvement can achieve and the probabilities of the initiating event developing into a serious accident or controlled by the existing safety system.

Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

Science.gov (United States)

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

2017-01-01

Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decision support for mitigating the risk of tree induced transmission line failure in utility rights-of-way.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulos, H M; Camp, A E

2010-02-01

Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility's (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation's power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

An analytical method of estimating Value-at-Risk on the Belgrade Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Obadović Milica D.

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents market risk evaluation for a portfolio consisting of shares that are continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, by applying the Value-at-Risk model - the analytical method. It describes the manner of analytical method application and compares the results obtained by implementing this method at different confidence levels. Method verification was carried out on the basis of the failure rate that demonstrated the confidence level for which this method was acceptable in view of the given conditions.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

A protocol for a systematic review to identify allergenic tree nuts and the molecules responsible for their allergenic properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Javed, Bushra; Padfield, Philip; Sperrin, Matthew; Simpson, Angela; Mills, E N Clare

2017-08-01

Food regulations require that tree nuts and derived ingredients are included on food labels in order to help individuals with IgE-mediated allergies to avoid them. However, there is no consensus regarding which tree nut species should be included in this definition and specified on food labels. Allergen detection methods used for monitoring foods target allergen molecules, but it not clear which are the most relevant molecules to choose. A modified population-exposure-comparators-outcome (PECO) approach has been developed to systematically review the evidence regarding (1) which allergenic tree nuts should be included in food allergen labelling lists and (2) which are the clinically relevant allergens which should be used as analytical targets. A search strategy and criteria against which the evidence will be evaluated have been developed. The resulting evidence will be used to rank tree nuts with regards their ability to cause IgE-mediated allergies, and allergen molecules regarding their capacity to elicit an allergic reaction. The results of the systematic review will enable risk assessors and managers to identify tree nut species that should be included in food allergen labelling lists and ensure analytical methods for determination of allergens in foods are targeting appropriate molecules. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, V. de.

1984-01-01

This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

Cadmium contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees and its potential health risk in Guangzhou, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, J.T.; Qiu, J.W.; Wang, X.W.; Zhong, Y.; Lan, C.Y.; Shu, W.S.

2006-01-01

This study examines cadmium (Cd) contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees in Guangzhou, China, and assesses its potential health risk. Soils and tissues samples of three species of fruit trees were collected from three orchards. The average soil Cd concentration was 1.27, 1.84 and 0.68 mg/kg in orchards I, II, and III, respectively. The carambola (Averrhoa carambola) accumulated exceptionally high concentrations of Cd (7.57, 10.84, 9.01 and 2.15 mg/kg dw in root, twig, leaf and fruit, respectively), being 6.0-24 times and 4.0-10 times the corresponding tissue Cd in the longan (Dimocarpus longan) and wampee (Clausena lansium), respectively. Furthermore, all Cd concentrations (0.04-0.25 mg Cd/kg fw) of the fruits exceeded the tolerance limit of cadmium in foods of PR China (0.03 mg/kg fw). Our results indicate that the carambola tree has high Cd accumulation capacity and might be a Cd accumulator; and its fruit, among the three species of fruits studied, also poses the highest potential health risk to local residents. - Carambola fruit can accumulate high levels of cadmium and may be a health risk for humans

Cadmium contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees and its potential health risk in Guangzhou, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, J.T. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Qiu, J.W. [Department of Biology, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Wang, X.W. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Zhong, Y. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Lan, C.Y. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)]. E-mail: ls04@zsu.edu.cn; Shu, W.S. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)]. E-mail: ls53@zsu.edu.cn

2006-09-15

This study examines cadmium (Cd) contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees in Guangzhou, China, and assesses its potential health risk. Soils and tissues samples of three species of fruit trees were collected from three orchards. The average soil Cd concentration was 1.27, 1.84 and 0.68 mg/kg in orchards I, II, and III, respectively. The carambola (Averrhoa carambola) accumulated exceptionally high concentrations of Cd (7.57, 10.84, 9.01 and 2.15 mg/kg dw in root, twig, leaf and fruit, respectively), being 6.0-24 times and 4.0-10 times the corresponding tissue Cd in the longan (Dimocarpus longan) and wampee (Clausena lansium), respectively. Furthermore, all Cd concentrations (0.04-0.25 mg Cd/kg fw) of the fruits exceeded the tolerance limit of cadmium in foods of PR China (0.03 mg/kg fw). Our results indicate that the carambola tree has high Cd accumulation capacity and might be a Cd accumulator; and its fruit, among the three species of fruits studied, also poses the highest potential health risk to local residents. - Carambola fruit can accumulate high levels of cadmium and may be a health risk for humans.

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Enhancing Treatment Outcome of Patients at Risk of Treatment Failure: Meta-Analytic and Mega-Analytic Review of a Psychotherapy Quality Assurance System

Science.gov (United States)

Shimokawa, Kenichi; Lambert, Michael J.; Smart, David W.

2010-01-01

Objective: Outcome research has documented worsening among a minority of the patient population (5% to 10%). In this study, we conducted a meta-analytic and mega-analytic review of a psychotherapy quality assurance system intended to enhance outcomes in patients at risk of treatment failure. Method: Original data from six major studies conducted…

Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Fang; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Yong; Fan, Qin-Ying; Wang, Lin

2016-05-20

In the past decades, studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China. With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years, available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China, especially with comparison between native residents and floating population. This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing. As useful methods to build a predictive model, Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia. A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics. The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia. Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months, and floating population, CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor, the maternal educational level, with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve. The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners. CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity. Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.

Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Yaghoubpour

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric

2006-01-01

South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite; Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence

OpenAIRE

Manmohan S. Kumar; Avinash Persaud

2001-01-01

This paper discusses a "pure" form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that can enable policy makers to differentiate between financial contagion and domestic fundamentals as the immediate source of a crisis. Daily measures of risk appetite are computed and their usefulness...

Visual exploration of parameter influence on phylogenetic trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, Martin; Bremm, Sebastian; Weissgraeber, Stephanie; Hamacher, Kay; Goesele, Michael; Wiemeyer, Josef; von Landesberger, Tatiana

2014-01-01

Evolutionary relationships between organisms are frequently derived as phylogenetic trees inferred from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). The MSA parameter space is exponentially large, so tens of thousands of potential trees can emerge for each dataset. A proposed visual-analytics approach can reveal the parameters' impact on the trees. Given input trees created with different parameter settings, it hierarchically clusters the trees according to their structural similarity. The most important clusters of similar trees are shown together with their parameters. This view offers interactive parameter exploration and automatic identification of relevant parameters. Biologists applied this approach to real data of 16S ribosomal RNA and protein sequences of ion channels. It revealed which parameters affected the tree structures. This led to a more reliable selection of the best trees.

Using Fault Trees to Advance Understanding of Diagnostic Errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogith, Deevakar; Iyengar, M Sriram; Singh, Hardeep

2017-11-01

Diagnostic errors annually affect at least 5% of adults in the outpatient setting in the United States. Formal analytic techniques are only infrequently used to understand them, in part because of the complexity of diagnostic processes and clinical work flows involved. In this article, diagnostic errors were modeled using fault tree analysis (FTA), a form of root cause analysis that has been successfully used in other high-complexity, high-risk contexts. How factors contributing to diagnostic errors can be systematically modeled by FTA to inform error understanding and error prevention is demonstrated. A team of three experts reviewed 10 published cases of diagnostic error and constructed fault trees. The fault trees were modeled according to currently available conceptual frameworks characterizing diagnostic error. The 10 trees were then synthesized into a single fault tree to identify common contributing factors and pathways leading to diagnostic error. FTA is a visual, structured, deductive approach that depicts the temporal sequence of events and their interactions in a formal logical hierarchy. The visual FTA enables easier understanding of causative processes and cognitive and system factors, as well as rapid identification of common pathways and interactions in a unified fashion. In addition, it enables calculation of empirical estimates for causative pathways. Thus, fault trees might provide a useful framework for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of diagnostic errors. Future directions include establishing validity and reliability by modeling a wider range of error cases, conducting quantitative evaluations, and undertaking deeper exploration of other FTA capabilities. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Risk Factors for Drug Use in an Iranian Treatment Sample: A Prediction Approach Using Decision Trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Amirabadizadeh, Alireza; Nezami, Hossein; Vaughn, Michael G; Nakhaee, Samaneh; Mehrpour, Omid

2018-05-12

Substance abuse exacts considerable social and health care burdens throughout the world. The aim of this study was to create a prediction model to better identify risk factors for drug use. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in South Khorasan Province, Iran. Of the total of 678 eligible subjects, 70% (n: 474) were randomly selected to provide a training set for constructing decision tree and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models. The remaining 30% (n: 204) were employed in a holdout sample to test the performance of the decision tree and MLR models. Predictive performance of different models was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the testing set. Independent variables were selected from demographic characteristics and history of drug use. For the decision tree model, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying people at risk for drug abuse were 66% and 75%, respectively, while the MLR model was somewhat less effective at 60% and 73%. Key independent variables in the analyses included first substance experience, age at first drug use, age, place of residence, history of cigarette use, and occupational and marital status. While study findings are exploratory and lack generalizability they do suggest that the decision tree model holds promise as an effective classification approach for identifying risk factors for drug use. Convergent with prior research in Western contexts is that age of drug use initiation was a critical factor predicting a substance use disorder.

Cadmium contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees and its potential health risk in Guangzhou, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J T; Qiu, J W; Wang, X W; Zhong, Y; Lan, C Y; Shu, W S

2006-09-01

This study examines cadmium (Cd) contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees in Guangzhou, China, and assesses its potential health risk. Soils and tissues samples of three species of fruit trees were collected from three orchards. The average soil Cd concentration was 1.27, 1.84 and 0.68 mg/kg in orchards I, II, and III, respectively. The carambola (Averrhoa carambola) accumulated exceptionally high concentrations of Cd (7.57, 10.84, 9.01 and 2.15 mg/kg dw in root, twig, leaf and fruit, respectively), being 6.0-24 times and 4.0-10 times the corresponding tissue Cd in the longan (Dimocarpus longan) and wampee (Clausena lansium), respectively. Furthermore, all Cd concentrations (0.04-0.25 mg Cd/kg fw) of the fruits exceeded the tolerance limit of cadmium in foods of PR China (0.03 mg/kg fw). Our results indicate that the carambola tree has high Cd accumulation capacity and might be a Cd accumulator; and its fruit, among the three species of fruits studied, also poses the highest potential health risk to local residents.

Rehabilitation Risk Management: Enabling Data Analytics with Quantified Self and Smart Home Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamper, Andreas; Eigner, Isabella; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bodendorf, Freimut

2017-01-01

A variety of acute and chronic diseases require rehabilitation at home after treatment. Outpatient rehabilitation is crucial for the quality of the medical outcome but is mainly performed without medical supervision. Non-Compliance can lead to severe health risks and readmission to the hospital. While the patient is closely monitored in the hospital, methods and technologies to identify risks at home have to be developed. We analyze state-of-the-art monitoring systems and technologies and show possibilities to transfer these technologies into rehabilitation monitoring. For this purpose, we analyze sensor technology from the field of Quantified Self and Smart Homes. The available sensor data from this consumer grade technology is summarized to give an overview of the possibilities for medical data analytics. Subsequently, we show a conceptual roadmap to transfer data analytics methods to sensor based rehabilitation risk management.

Recent Development in Big Data Analytics for Business Operations and Risk Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Chan, Hing Kai; Yue, Xiaohang

2017-01-01

"Big data" is an emerging topic and has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners in industrial systems engineering and cybernetics. Big data analytics would definitely lead to valuable knowledge for many organizations. Business operations and risk management can be a beneficiary as there are many data collection channels in the related industrial systems (e.g., wireless sensor networks, Internet-based systems, etc.). Big data research, however, is still in its infancy. Its focus is rather unclear and related studies are not well amalgamated. This paper aims to present the challenges and opportunities of big data analytics in this unique application domain. Technological development and advances for industrial-based business systems, reliability and security of industrial systems, and their operational risk management are examined. Important areas for future research are also discussed and revealed.

Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon

2016-01-01

In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

Analytic expressions for the construction of a fire event PSA model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Dong San; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

In this study, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model is analytically presented and discussed. Many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Fire-induced initiating fault tree models are developed for addressing multiple initiating event issues. A single fire event within a fire compartment or fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events. As an example, a fire in a turbine building area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. Up to now, there has been no analytic study on the construction of a fire event PSA model using an internal event PSA model with fault trees of initiating events. In this paper, the changing process of an internal event PSA model to a fire event PSA model was analytically presented and discussed. This study results show that additional cutsets can be obtained if the fault trees of initiating events for a fire event PSA model are not exactly developed.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

An HVAC [heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning] fault-tree analysis for WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] integrated risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, P.N.; Iacovino, J.M.

1990-01-01

In order to evaluate the public health risk of potential radioactive releases from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a probabilistic risk assessment of waste-handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault-tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which constitute the final barrier between waste-handling operations and the environment. The WIPP site is designed to receive and store two types of waste: contact-handled transuranic (CH TRU) wastes to be shipped in 208-ell drums and remote-handled (RH) TRU wastes to be shipped in shielded casks. The identification of accident sequences for CH waste operations revealed no identified accidents that could release significant radioactive particulates to the environment without a failure in the HVAC systems. When the HVAC fault-tree results were combined with other critical system fault trees and the analysis of waste-handling accident sequences, the approximation of the overall WIPP plant risk due to airborne releases was determined to be 2.6 x 10 -7 fatalities per year for the population within a 50-mile radius of the WIPP site. This risk was demonstrated to be well below the risk of fatality from other voluntary and involuntary activities for the population within the vicinity of the WIPP

Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

2013-08-01

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

Exploring the predictive power of interaction terms in a sophisticated risk equalization model using regression trees.

Science.gov (United States)

van Veen, S H C M; van Kleef, R C; van de Ven, W P M M; van Vliet, R C J A

2018-02-01

This study explores the predictive power of interaction terms between the risk adjusters in the Dutch risk equalization (RE) model of 2014. Due to the sophistication of this RE-model and the complexity of the associations in the dataset (N = ~16.7 million), there are theoretically more than a million interaction terms. We used regression tree modelling, which has been applied rarely within the field of RE, to identify interaction terms that statistically significantly explain variation in observed expenses that is not already explained by the risk adjusters in this RE-model. The interaction terms identified were used as additional risk adjusters in the RE-model. We found evidence that interaction terms can improve the prediction of expenses overall and for specific groups in the population. However, the prediction of expenses for some other selective groups may deteriorate. Thus, interactions can reduce financial incentives for risk selection for some groups but may increase them for others. Furthermore, because regression trees are not robust, additional criteria are needed to decide which interaction terms should be used in practice. These criteria could be the right incentive structure for risk selection and efficiency or the opinion of medical experts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

VC-dimension of univariate decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Yildiz, Olcay Taner

2015-02-01

In this paper, we give and prove the lower bounds of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC)-dimension of the univariate decision tree hypothesis class. The VC-dimension of the univariate decision tree depends on the VC-dimension values of its subtrees and the number of inputs. Via a search algorithm that calculates the VC-dimension of univariate decision trees exhaustively, we show that our VC-dimension bounds are tight for simple trees. To verify that the VC-dimension bounds are useful, we also use them to get VC-generalization bounds for complexity control using structural risk minimization in decision trees, i.e., pruning. Our simulation results show that structural risk minimization pruning using the VC-dimension bounds finds trees that are more accurate as those pruned using cross validation.

Risk Governance: An Application of Analytic-Deliberative Policy Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

2006-01-01

The paper introduces an integrated analytic framework for risk governance which provides guidance for the development of comprehensive assessment and management strategies to cope with risks, in particular at the global level. The framework integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders. The concept of risk governance comprises a broad picture of risk: not only does it include what has been termed 'risk management' or 'risk analysis, it also looks at how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The framework's risk process breaks down into three main phases: 'pre-assessment', 'appraisal', and 'management'. A further phase, comprising the 'characterisation' and 'evaluation' of risk, is placed between the appraisal and management phases and, depending on whether those charged with the assessment or those responsible for management are better equipped to perform the associated tasks, can be assigned to either of them - thus concluding the appraisal phase or marking the start of the management phase. The risk process has 'communication' as a companion to all phases of addressing and handling risk and is itself of a cyclical nature. However, the clear sequence of phases and steps offered by this process is primarily a logical and functional one and will not always correspond to reality. The paper will address in particular the role of public participation and stakeholder involvement

Bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) for coronary heart disease risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabahi, Farnaz

2018-04-04

Rooted deeply in medical multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), risk assessment is very important especially when applied to the risk of being affected by deadly diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD risk assessment is a stochastic, uncertain, and highly dynamic process influenced by various known and unknown variables. In recent years, there has been a great interest in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), a popular methodology for dealing with uncertainty in MCDM. This paper proposes a new FAHP, bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) that augments two aspects of knowledge, probability and validity, to fuzzy numbers to better deal with uncertainty. In BFAHP, fuzzy validity is computed by aggregating the validities of relevant risk factors based on expert knowledge and collective intelligence. By considering both soft and statistical data, we compute the fuzzy probability of risk factors using the Bayesian formulation. In BFAHP approach, these fuzzy validities and fuzzy probabilities are used to construct a reciprocal comparison matrix. We then aggregate fuzzy probabilities and fuzzy validities in a pairwise manner for each risk factor and each alternative. BFAHP decides about being affected and not being affected by ranking of high and low risks. For evaluation, the proposed approach is applied to the risk of being affected by CHD using a real dataset of 152 patients of Iranian hospitals. Simulation results confirm that adding validity in a fuzzy manner can accrue more confidence of results and clinically useful especially in the face of incomplete information when compared with actual results. Applying the proposed BFAHP on CHD risk assessment of the dataset, it yields high accuracy rate above 85% for correct prediction. In addition, this paper recognizes that the risk factors of diastolic blood pressure in men and high-density lipoprotein in women are more important in CHD than other risk factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All

A Weibull-based compositional approach for hierarchical dynamic fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiacchio, F.; Cacioppo, M.; D'Urso, D.; Manno, G.; Trapani, N.; Compagno, L.

2013-01-01

The solution of a dynamic fault tree (DFT) for the reliability assessment can be achieved using a wide variety of techniques. These techniques have a strong theoretical foundation as both the analytical and the simulation methods have been extensively developed. Nevertheless, they all present the same limits that appear with the increasing of the size of the fault trees (i.e., state space explosion, time-consuming simulations), compromising the resolution. We have tested the feasibility of a composition algorithm based on a Weibull distribution, addressed to the resolution of a general class of dynamic fault trees characterized by non-repairable basic events and generally distributed failure times. The proposed composition algorithm is used to generalize the traditional hierarchical technique that, as previous literature have extensively confirmed, is able to reduce the computational effort of a large DFT through the modularization of independent parts of the tree. The results of this study are achieved both through simulation and analytical techniques, thus confirming the capability to solve a quite general class of dynamic fault trees and overcome the limits of traditional techniques.

Drought-induced xylem cavitation and hydraulic deterioration: risk factors for urban trees under climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Savi, Tadeja; Bertuzzi, Stefano; Branca, Salvatore; Tretiach, Mauro; Nardini, Andrea

2015-02-01

Urban trees help towns to cope with climate warming by cooling both air and surfaces. The challenges imposed by the urban environment, with special reference to low water availability due to the presence of extensive pavements, result in high rates of mortality of street trees, that can be increased by climatic extremes. We investigated the water relations and xylem hydraulic safety/efficiency of Quercus ilex trees growing at urban sites with different percentages of surrounding impervious pavements. Seasonal changes of plant water potential and gas exchange, vulnerability to cavitation and embolism level, and morpho-anatomical traits were measured. We found patterns of increasing water stress and vulnerability to drought at increasing percentages of impervious pavement cover, with a consequent reduction in gas exchange rates, decreased safety margins toward embolism development, and increased vulnerability to cavitation, suggesting the occurrence of stress-induced hydraulic deterioration. The amount of impermeable surface and chronic exposure to water stress influence the site-specific risk of drought-induced dieback of urban trees under extreme drought. Besides providing directions for management of green spaces in towns, our data suggest that xylem hydraulics is key to a full understanding of the responses of urban trees to global change. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

2017-03-01

The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

Risk Governance: An Application of Analytic-Deliberative Policy Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, Ortwin [Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany)

2006-09-15

The paper introduces an integrated analytic framework for risk governance which provides guidance for the development of comprehensive assessment and management strategies to cope with risks, in particular at the global level. The framework integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders. The concept of risk governance comprises a broad picture of risk: not only does it include what has been termed 'risk management' or 'risk analysis, it also looks at how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The framework's risk process breaks down into three main phases: 'pre-assessment', 'appraisal', and 'management'. A further phase, comprising the 'characterisation' and 'evaluation' of risk, is placed between the appraisal and management phases and, depending on whether those charged with the assessment or those responsible for management are better equipped to perform the associated tasks, can be assigned to either of them - thus concluding the appraisal phase or marking the start of the management phase. The risk process has 'communication' as a companion to all phases of addressing and handling risk and is itself of a cyclical nature. However, the clear sequence of phases and steps offered by this process is primarily a logical and functional one and will not always correspond to reality. The paper will address in particular the role of public participation and stakeholder involvement.

TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Arustamov

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

International study of risk-mitigating factors and in-flight allergic reactions to peanut and tree nut.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhawt, Matthew; MacGillivray, Fiona; Batty, Geraldine; Said, Maria; Weiss, Christopher

2013-03-01

Three studies have analyzed in-flight peanut/tree nut reactions, although the studies were conducted exclusively among Americans. We studied the international in-flight experience and determined the efficacy of certain risk-mitigation strategies. A 47-question on-line survey was distributed through the websites and social media outlets of the member organizations of the Food Allergy & Anaphylaxis Alliance. Both persons reporting an in-flight reaction and nonreactors were surveyed to assess details of air travel preparation and any reported reaction. Data were analyzed to determine the association among flying behaviors, reported reactions, and nationality. We found that 349 reactions were reported among 3273 respondents from 11 countries; 13.3% received epinephrine as treatment. Flight crews were notified about 50.1% of reactions. Sixty-nine percent of all respondents reported making a preflight accommodation request, although just 55% of reactors did so compared with 71.6% of nonreactors (P airline pillows or blankets, requested a buffer zone, requested other passengers not consume peanut/tree nut-containing products, or reported not consuming airline-provided food had significantly lower adjusted odds of reporting a reaction. In-flight peanut and tree nut reactions occur internationally. Epinephrine was sparsely used to treat reactions. We identified 8 risk-mitigating behaviors associated with lower odds of a reported reaction. Future study is necessary to further validate the effectiveness of these passenger-initiated risk-mitigating behaviors. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

OpenAIRE

Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

2009-01-01

Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled fr...

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Tree felling 2014

CERN Multimedia

2014-01-01

With a view to creating new landscapes and making its population of trees safer and healthier, this winter CERN will complete the tree-felling campaign started in 2010.   Tree felling will take place between 15 and 22 November on the Swiss part of the Meyrin site. This work is being carried out above all for safety reasons. The trees to be cut down are at risk of falling as they are too old and too tall to withstand the wind. In addition, the roots of poplar trees are very powerful and spread widely, potentially damaging underground networks, pavements and roadways. Compensatory tree planting campaigns will take place in the future, subject to the availability of funding, with the aim of creating coherent landscapes while also respecting the functional constraints of the site. These matters are being considered in close collaboration with the Geneva nature and countryside directorate (Direction générale de la nature et du paysage, DGNP). GS-SE Group

Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

2010-07-27

The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (psocial relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The challenge of making ozone risk assessment for forest trees more mechanistic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matyssek, R.; Sandermann, H.; Wieser, G.; Booker, F.; Cieslik, S.; Musselman, R.; Ernst, D.

2008-01-01

Upcoming decades will experience increasing atmospheric CO 2 and likely enhanced O 3 exposure which represents a risk for the carbon sink strength of forests, so that the need for cause-effect related O 3 risk assessment increases. Although assessment will gain in reliability on an O 3 uptake basis, risk is co-determined by the effective dose, i.e. the plant's sensitivity per O 3 uptake. Recent progress in research on the molecular and metabolic control of the effective O 3 dose is reported along with advances in empirically assessing O 3 uptake at the whole-tree and stand level. Knowledge on both O 3 uptake and effective dose (measures of stress avoidance and tolerance, respectively) needs to be understood mechanistically and linked as a pre-requisite before practical use of process-based O 3 risk assessment can be implemented. To this end, perspectives are derived for validating and promoting new O 3 flux-based modelling tools. - Clarifying and linking mechanisms of O 3 uptake and effective dose are research challenges highlighted in view of recent progress and perspectives towards cause-effect based risk assessment

Analytical procedures. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, G.

1985-01-01

In analytical procedures (Boole procedures) there is certain to be a close relationship between the safety assessment and reliability assessment of technical facilities. The paper gives an overview of the organization of models, fault trees, the probabilistic evaluation of systems, evaluation with minimum steps or minimum paths regarding statistically dependent components and of systems liable to suffer different kinds of outages. (orig.) [de

Analysis of Wave Velocity Patterns in Black Cherry Trees and its Effect on Internal Decay Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Guanghui Li; Xiping Wang; Jan Wiedenbeck; Robert J. Ross

2013-01-01

In this study, we examined stress wave velocity patterns in the cross sections of black cherry trees, developed analytical models of stress wave velocity in sound healthy trees, and then tested the effectiveness of the models as a tool for tree decay diagnosis. Acoustic tomography data of the tree cross sections were collected from 12 black cherry trees at a production...

Using Evidence-Based Decision Trees Instead of Formulas to Identify At-Risk Readers. REL 2014-036

Science.gov (United States)

Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov; Foorman, Barbara R.

2014-01-01

This study examines whether the classification and regression tree (CART) model improves the early identification of students at risk for reading comprehension difficulties compared with the more difficult to interpret logistic regression model. CART is a type of predictive modeling that relies on nonparametric techniques. It presents results in…

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Using Cutting-Edge Tree-Based Stochastic Models to Predict Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaled Halteh

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Credit risk is a critical issue that affects banks and companies on a global scale. Possessing the ability to accurately predict the level of credit risk has the potential to help the lender and borrower. This is achieved by alleviating the number of loans provided to borrowers with poor financial health, thereby reducing the number of failed businesses, and, in effect, preventing economies from collapsing. This paper uses state-of-the-art stochastic models, namely: Decision trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient boosting to add to the current literature on credit-risk modelling. The Australian mining industry has been selected to test our methodology. Mining in Australia generates around $138 billion annually, making up more than half of the total goods and services. This paper uses publicly-available financial data from 750 risky and not risky Australian mining companies as variables in our models. Our results indicate that stochastic gradient boosting was the superior model at correctly classifying the good and bad credit-rated companies within the mining sector. Our model showed that ‘Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE turnover’, ‘Invested Capital Turnover’, and ‘Price over Earnings Ratio (PER’ were the variables with the best explanatory power pertaining to predicting credit risk in the Australian mining sector.

Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nai Fovino, Igor; Masera, Marcelo; De Cian, Alessio

2009-01-01

In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nai Fovino, Igor [Joint Research Centre - EC, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, VA (Italy)], E-mail: igor.nai@jrc.it; Masera, Marcelo [Joint Research Centre - EC, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, VA (Italy); De Cian, Alessio [Department of Electrical Engineering, University di Genova, Genoa (Italy)

2009-09-15

In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

Trees and Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

2017-01-01

This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

Triangular M/G/1-type and tree-like QBD Markov chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Houdt, B.; Leeuwaarden, van J.S.H.

2009-01-01

In applying matrix-analytic methods to M/G/1-type and tree-like QBD Markov chains, it is crucial to determine the solution to a (set of) nonlinear matrix equation(s). This is usually done via iterative methods. We consider the highly structured subclass of triangular M/G/1-type and tree-like QBD

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 4. System reliability and analysis techniques sessions B/C - event trees/fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haasl, D.; Young, J.

1985-08-01

This course will employ a combination of lecture material and practical problem solving in order to develop competence and understanding of th principles and techniques of event tree and fault tree analysis. The role of these techniques in the overall context of PRA will be described. The emphasis of this course will be on the basic, traditional methods of event tree and fault tree analysis

A stochastic model of nanoparticle self-assembly on Cayley trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazilu, I; Schwen, E M; Banks, W E; Pope, B K; Mazilu, D A

2015-01-01

Nanomedicine is an emerging area of medical research that uses innovative nanotechnologies to improve the delivery of therapeutic and diagnostic agents with maximum clinical benefit. We present a versatile stochastic model that can be used to capture the basic features of drug encapsulation of nanoparticles on tree-like synthetic polymers called dendrimers. The geometry of a dendrimer is described mathematically as a Cayley tree. We use our stochastic model to study the dynamics of deposition and release of monomers (simulating the drug molecules) on Cayley trees (simulating dendrimers). We present analytical and Monte Carlo simulation results for the particle density on Cayley trees of coordination number three and four

Fault trees and the impact of human variability on probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

It has long been recognized that human reliability is an important factor in probabilistic risk analysis. In the field, this is true in a direct operational sense as well as in the areas of installation and maintenance. The interest in quantification arises from the desire to achieve optimum design in the human factors sense (operability-maintainability) and from the need to include human reliability considerations in probabilistic risk analysis to achieve complete and valid risk evaluation. In order to integrate human reliability into the system analysis, it is necessary to consider two questions. These relate to the way that human functions fit into the existing analytical models and methods as well as the nature of human failure mechanisms, modes and failure (error) rates

The risk evaluation of difficult substances in USES 2.0 and EUSES. A decision tree for data gap filling of Kow, Koc and BCF

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beelen P van; ECO

2000-01-01

This report presents a decision tree for the risk evaluation of the so-called "difficult" substances with the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES). The decision tree gives practical guidelines for the regulatory authorities to evaluate notified substances like organometallic

Probabilistic risk analysis and fault trees: Initial discussion of application to identification of risk at a wellhead

Science.gov (United States)

Rodak, C.; Silliman, S.

2012-02-01

Wellhead protection is of critical importance for managing groundwater resources. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for addressing wellhead protection in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health of the receiving population are limited. It is herein suggested that probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) provides a structure whereby chemical transport can be combined with uncertainties in source, chemistry, and health impact to assess the probability of negative health outcomes in the population. As such, PRA-FT provides a new strategy for the identification of areas of probabilistically high human health risk. Application of this approach is demonstrated through a simplified case study involving flow to a well in an unconfined aquifer with heterogeneity in aquifer properties and contaminant sources.

ETE: a python Environment for Tree Exploration.

Science.gov (United States)

Huerta-Cepas, Jaime; Dopazo, Joaquín; Gabaldón, Toni

2010-01-13

Many bioinformatics analyses, ranging from gene clustering to phylogenetics, produce hierarchical trees as their main result. These are used to represent the relationships among different biological entities, thus facilitating their analysis and interpretation. A number of standalone programs are available that focus on tree visualization or that perform specific analyses on them. However, such applications are rarely suitable for large-scale surveys, in which a higher level of automation is required. Currently, many genome-wide analyses rely on tree-like data representation and hence there is a growing need for scalable tools to handle tree structures at large scale. Here we present the Environment for Tree Exploration (ETE), a python programming toolkit that assists in the automated manipulation, analysis and visualization of hierarchical trees. ETE libraries provide a broad set of tree handling options as well as specific methods to analyze phylogenetic and clustering trees. Among other features, ETE allows for the independent analysis of tree partitions, has support for the extended newick format, provides an integrated node annotation system and permits to link trees to external data such as multiple sequence alignments or numerical arrays. In addition, ETE implements a number of built-in analytical tools, including phylogeny-based orthology prediction and cluster validation techniques. Finally, ETE's programmable tree drawing engine can be used to automate the graphical rendering of trees with customized node-specific visualizations. ETE provides a complete set of methods to manipulate tree data structures that extends current functionality in other bioinformatic toolkits of a more general purpose. ETE is free software and can be downloaded from http://ete.cgenomics.org.

ETE: a python Environment for Tree Exploration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabaldón Toni

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many bioinformatics analyses, ranging from gene clustering to phylogenetics, produce hierarchical trees as their main result. These are used to represent the relationships among different biological entities, thus facilitating their analysis and interpretation. A number of standalone programs are available that focus on tree visualization or that perform specific analyses on them. However, such applications are rarely suitable for large-scale surveys, in which a higher level of automation is required. Currently, many genome-wide analyses rely on tree-like data representation and hence there is a growing need for scalable tools to handle tree structures at large scale. Results Here we present the Environment for Tree Exploration (ETE, a python programming toolkit that assists in the automated manipulation, analysis and visualization of hierarchical trees. ETE libraries provide a broad set of tree handling options as well as specific methods to analyze phylogenetic and clustering trees. Among other features, ETE allows for the independent analysis of tree partitions, has support for the extended newick format, provides an integrated node annotation system and permits to link trees to external data such as multiple sequence alignments or numerical arrays. In addition, ETE implements a number of built-in analytical tools, including phylogeny-based orthology prediction and cluster validation techniques. Finally, ETE's programmable tree drawing engine can be used to automate the graphical rendering of trees with customized node-specific visualizations. Conclusions ETE provides a complete set of methods to manipulate tree data structures that extends current functionality in other bioinformatic toolkits of a more general purpose. ETE is free software and can be downloaded from http://ete.cgenomics.org.

Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1989-01-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

A Comparison between Decision Tree and Random Forest in Determining the Risk Factors Associated with Type 2 Diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Esmaily, Habibollah; Tayefi, Maryam; Doosti, Hassan; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid; Nezami, Hossein; Amirabadizadeh, Alireza

2018-04-24

We aimed to identify the associated risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using data mining approach, decision tree and random forest techniques using the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorders (MASHAD) Study program. A cross-sectional study. The MASHAD study started in 2010 and will continue until 2020. Two data mining tools, namely decision trees, and random forests, are used for predicting T2DM when some other characteristics are observed on 9528 subjects recruited from MASHAD database. This paper makes a comparison between these two models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the area under ROC curve. The prevalence rate of T2DM was 14% among these subjects. The decision tree model has 64.9% accuracy, 64.5% sensitivity, 66.8% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 68.6%, while the random forest model has 71.1% accuracy, 71.3% sensitivity, 69.9% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 77.3% respectively. The random forest model, when used with demographic, clinical, and anthropometric and biochemical measurements, can provide a simple tool to identify associated risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Such identification can substantially use for managing the health policy to reduce the number of subjects with T2DM .

Applying decision tree for identification of a low risk population for type 2 diabetes. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramezankhani, Azra; Pournik, Omid; Shahrabi, Jamal; Khalili, Davood; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to create a prediction model using data mining approach to identify low risk individuals for incidence of type 2 diabetes, using the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) database. For a 6647 population without diabetes, aged ≥20 years, followed for 12 years, a prediction model was developed using classification by the decision tree technique. Seven hundred and twenty-nine (11%) diabetes cases occurred during the follow-up. Predictor variables were selected from demographic characteristics, smoking status, medical and drug history and laboratory measures. We developed the predictive models by decision tree using 60 input variables and one output variable. The overall classification accuracy was 90.5%, with 31.1% sensitivity, 97.9% specificity; and for the subjects without diabetes, precision and f-measure were 92% and 0.95, respectively. The identified variables included fasting plasma glucose, body mass index, triglycerides, mean arterial blood pressure, family history of diabetes, educational level and job status. In conclusion, decision tree analysis, using routine demographic, clinical, anthropometric and laboratory measurements, created a simple tool to predict individuals at low risk for type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modular representation and analysis of fault trees

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olmos, J; Wolf, L [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge (USA). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

1978-08-01

An analytical method to describe fault tree diagrams in terms of their modular compositions is developed. Fault tree structures are characterized by recursively relating the top tree event to all its basic component inputs through a set of equations defining each of the modulus for the fault tree. It is shown that such a modular description is an extremely valuable tool for making a quantitative analysis of fault trees. The modularization methodology has been implemented into the PL-MOD computer code, written in PL/1 language, which is capable of modularizing fault trees containing replicated components and replicated modular gates. PL-MOD in addition can handle mutually exclusive inputs and explicit higher order symmetric (k-out-of-n) gates. The step-by-step modularization of fault trees performed by PL-MOD is demonstrated and it is shown how this procedure is only made possible through an extensive use of the list processing tools available in PL/1. A number of nuclear reactor safety system fault trees were analyzed. PL-MOD performed the modularization and evaluation of the modular occurrence probabilities and Vesely-Fussell importance measures for these systems very efficiently. In particular its execution time for the modularization of a PWR High Pressure Injection System reduced fault tree was 25 times faster than that necessary to generate its equivalent minimal cut-set description using MOCUS, a code considered to be fast by present standards.

Mutual learning in a tree parity machine and its application to cryptography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen-Zvi, Michal; Klein, Einat; Kanter, Ido; Kinzel, Wolfgang

2002-01-01

Mutual learning of a pair of tree parity machines with continuous and discrete weight vectors is studied analytically. The analysis is based on a mapping procedure that maps the mutual learning in tree parity machines onto mutual learning in noisy perceptrons. The stationary solution of the mutual learning in the case of continuous tree parity machines depends on the learning rate where a phase transition from partial to full synchronization is observed. In the discrete case the learning process is based on a finite increment and a full synchronized state is achieved in a finite number of steps. The synchronization of discrete parity machines is introduced in order to construct an ephemeral key-exchange protocol. The dynamic learning of a third tree parity machine (an attacker) that tries to imitate one of the two machines while the two still update their weight vectors is also analyzed. In particular, the synchronization times of the naive attacker and the flipping attacker recently introduced in Ref. 9 are analyzed. All analytical results are found to be in good agreement with simulation results

Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Y

2003-01-01

Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

2016-01-01

Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted.

Application of system reliability analytical method, GO-FLOW

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuoka, Takeshi; Fukuto, Junji; Mitomo, Nobuo; Miyazaki, Keiko; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Michiyuki

1999-01-01

The Ship Research Institute proceed a developmental study on GO-FLOW method with various advancing functionalities for the system reliability analysis method occupying main parts of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). Here was attempted to intend to upgrade functionality of the GO-FLOW method, to develop an analytical function integrated with dynamic behavior analytical function, physical behavior and probable subject transfer, and to prepare a main accident sequence picking-out function. In 1997 fiscal year, in dynamic event-tree analytical system, an analytical function was developed by adding dependency between headings. In simulation analytical function of the accident sequence, main accident sequence of MRX for improved ship propulsion reactor became possible to be covered perfectly. And, input data for analysis was prepared with a function capable easily to set by an analysis operator. (G.K.)

Application of the analytical hierarchy process to establish health care waste management systems that minimise infection risks in developing countries

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Brent, AC

2007-01-01

Full Text Available (see Fig. 2), and structured into the appropriate levels (see Table 2). These hier- archy trees are shown in Figs. 3–8 of Appendix A. 4. Results of the workshops 4.1. Definitions of the hierarchical trees The definitions of each hierarchical tree....349 NEC 0.045 EL 0.200 NEL 0.028 DP 0.292 NP 0.038 Alternatives Risk factors EC + EL + DP 1.0 nEC + EL + DP 1.6 EC + nEL + DP 1.3 nEC + nEL + DP 2.3 EC + EL + nP 1.4 nEC + EL + nP 3.0 A.C. Brent et al. / European Journal of Operational Research...

Efficient reduction and modularization for large fault trees stored by pages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shanqi; Wang, Jin; Wang, Jiaqun; Wang, Fang; Hu, Liqin

2016-01-01

Highlights: • New fault tree pre-processing methods used in RiskA are presented. • Including the fault tree paging storage, simplification and modularization. • For getting MCS for fault trees containing more than 10,000 gates and events. • Reduce computer resources needs (RAM) and improve computation speed. - Abstract: Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), an indispensable tool used in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), has been used throughout the commercial nuclear power industry for safety and reliability analyses. However, large fault tree analysis, such as those used in nuclear power plant requires significant computer resources, which makes the analysis of PRA model inefficient and time consuming. This paper describes a fault tree pre-processing method used in the reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA that is capable of generating minimal cutsets for fault trees containing more than 10,000 gates and basic events. The novel feature of this method is not only that Boolean reduction rules are used but also that a new objective of simplification is proposed. Moreover, since the method aims to find more fault tree modules by the linear-time algorithm, it can optimize fault tree modularization, which further reduces the computational time of large fault tree analysis.

Food risk perceptions, gender, and individual differences in avoidance and approach motivation, intuitive and analytic thinking styles, and anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina; Lähteenmäki, Liisa

2007-03-01

Risks appear to be perceived in two different ways, affectively and rationally. Finnish adult internet users were contacted via e-mail and asked to fill an internet questionnaire consisting of questions of food risks and measures of avoidance and approach motivation, analytic and intuitive information processing style, trait anxiety, and gender in order to find out (1) whether food risks are perceived two-dimensionally, (2) how individual differences in motivation, information processing, and anxiety are associated with the different dimensions of food risk perceptions, and (3) whether gender moderates these associations. The data were analyzed by factor, correlation and regression analyses. Three factors emerged: risk scariness, risk likelihood, and risks of cardiovascular disease. Personality and gender x personality interactions predicted food risk perceptions. Results showed that food risk perceptions generally form two dimensions; scariness and likelihood, but that this may depend on the nature of the risk. In addition, results imply that individuals with high avoidance motivation perceive food risks as scarier and more likely than others, and that individuals with an analytic information processing style perceive food risks as less likely than others. Trait anxiety seems to be associated with higher food risk perceptions only among men.

Understanding suicide risk within the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework: A meta-analytic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn, Catherine R; Kleiman, Evan M; Cha, Christine B; Deming, Charlene A; Franklin, Joseph C; Nock, Matthew K

2018-01-01

The field is in need of novel and transdiagnostic risk factors for suicide. The National Institute of Mental Health's Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) provides a framework that may help advance research on suicidal behavior. We conducted a meta-analytic review of existing prospective risk and protective factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (ideation, attempts, and deaths) that fall within one of the five RDoC domains or relate to a prominent suicide theory. Predictors were selected from a database of 4,082 prospective risk and protective factors for suicide outcomes. A total of 460 predictors met inclusion criteria for this meta-analytic review and most examined risk (vs. protective) factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. The overall effect of risk factors was statistically significant, but relatively small, in predicting suicide ideation (weighted mean odds ratio: wOR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.59-1.87), suicide attempt (wOR = 1.66 [1.57-1.76), and suicide death (wOR = 1.41 [1.24-1.60]). Across all suicide outcomes, most risk factors related to the Negative Valence Systems domain, although effect sizes were of similar magnitude across RDoC domains. This study demonstrated that the RDoC framework provides a novel and promising approach to suicide research; however, relatively few studies of suicidal behavior fit within this framework. Future studies must go beyond the "usual suspects" of suicide risk factors (e.g., mental disorders, sociodemographics) to understand the processes that combine to lead to this deadly outcome. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effective 1.0: An Analytic Effective Action Analysis Library

OpenAIRE

Hetherington, James P. J.; Stephens, Philip

2006-01-01

Effective is a C++ library which provides the user a toolbox to study the effective action of an arbitrary field theory. From the field content, gauge groups and representations an appropriate action is generated symbolically. The effective potential, mass spectrum, field couplings and vacuum expectation values are then obtained automatically; tree level results are obtained analytically while many tools, both numeric and analytic, provide a variety of approaches to deal with the one-loop cor...

Risk assessment of occupational groups working in open pit mining: Analytic Hierarchy Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaşar Kasap

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In open pit mining it is possible to prevent industrial accidents and the results of industrial accidents such as deaths, physical disabilities and financial loss by implementing risk analyses in advance. If the probabilities of different occupational groups encountering various hazards are determined, workers’ risk of having industrial accidents and catching occupational illnesses can be controlled. In this sense, the aim of this study was to assess the industrial accidents which occurred during open pit coal production in the Turkish Coal Enterprises (TCE Garp Lignite unit between 2005 and 2010 and to analyze the risks using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. The analyses conducted with AHP revealed that the greatest risk in open pit mining is landslides, the most risky occupational group is unskilled labourers and the most common hazards are caused by landslides and transportation/hand tools/falling.

Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

2013-11-01

We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

The boolean algebra with restricted variables as a tool for fault tree modularization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caldarola, L.; Wickenhaeuser, A.

1981-08-01

The number of minimal cut sets (m.c.s.) of very complex and highly interconnected fault trees can become extremely large (e.g. more than 10 7 ). In this case the usual analytical approach of dissecting the fault tree TOP variable into m.c.s. is not only computationally prohibitively expensive, but also meaningless because it does not offer any synthetic overview of system behavior. The method proposed in this paper overcomes the deficiencies of the analytical method. It is shown that, by applying boolean algebra with restricted variables (b.a.w.r.v.), the concept of fault tree modularization can be straightforwardly extended from a single gate to a set of gates. Thus, large fault trees are divided into smaller fault trees (modules), which are connected to each other according to a simple scheme. This scheme is represented by a block diagram in which each block is a module. The modules are analyzed separately by the m.c.s. method, and the results are combined according of the TOP event. The method allows the calculation of very large fault trees in a short time and offers a synthetic overview of systems behavior through the block diagram. Numerical examples are also included. Calculations have been carried out by using the computer code MUSTAMO, which is based on the theory developed in this paper. (orig.) [de

Utilization of fault tree analysis techniques in fire protection work

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crass, E.R.

1986-01-01

This paper describes the development of a fault tree model for a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the subsequent use of this model to perform a safe shutdown analysis and determine conformance with Section IIIG of 10 CFR 50, Appendix R. The paper describes the rationale for choosing this analytical tool, the development of the fault tree model, the analysis of the model using the PREP code, disposition of the results, and finally, application of the results to determine the need for plant modifications. It concludes with a review of the strengths and weaknesses of the use of Fault Tree Methodology for this application

An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

2015-01-01

A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

2013-01-01

We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...

Automatic fault tree generation in the EPR PSA project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villatte, N; Nonclercq, P.; Taupy, S.

2012-01-01

Tools (KB3 and Atelier EPS) have been developed at EDF to assist the analysts in building fault trees for PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and importing them into RiskSpectrum (RiskSpectrum is a Swedish code used at EDF for PSA). System modelling is performed using KB3 software with a knowledge base describing generic classes of components with their behaviour and failure modes. Using these classes of components, the analyst can describe (using a graphical system editor): a simplified system diagram from the mechanical system drawings and functional descriptions, the missions of the studied system (in a form of high level fault trees) and its different configurations for the missions. He can also add specific knowledge about the system. Then, the analyst chooses missions and configurations to specify and launch fault trees generations. From the system description, KB3 produces by backward-chaining on rules, detailed system fault trees. These fault trees are finally imported into RiskSpectrum (they are converted by Atelier EPS into a format readable by RiskSpectrum). KB3 and Atelier EPS have been used to create the majority of the fault trees for the EDF EPR Probabilistic Safety Analysis conducted from November 2009 to March 2010. 25 systems were modelled, and 127 fault trees were automatically generated in a rather short time by different analysts with the help of these tools. A feedback shows a lot of advantages to use KB3 and Atelier EPS: homogeneity and consistency between the different generated fault trees, traceability of modelling, control of modelling and last but not least: the automation of detailed fault tree creation relieves the human analyst of this tedious task so that he can focus his attention on more important tasks: modelling the failure of a function. This industrial application has also helped us gather an interesting feedback from the analysts that should help us improve the handling of the tools. We propose in this paper indeed some

Pareto Efficient Solutions of Attack-Defence Trees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

2015-01-01

Attack-defence trees are a promising approach for representing threat scenarios and possible countermeasures in a concise and intuitive manner. An attack-defence tree describes the interaction between an attacker and a defender, and is evaluated by assigning parameters to the nodes, such as proba......Attack-defence trees are a promising approach for representing threat scenarios and possible countermeasures in a concise and intuitive manner. An attack-defence tree describes the interaction between an attacker and a defender, and is evaluated by assigning parameters to the nodes......, such as probability or cost of attacks and defences. In case of multiple parameters most analytical methods optimise one parameter at a time, e.g., minimise cost or maximise probability of an attack. Such methods may lead to sub-optimal solutions when optimising conflicting parameters, e.g., minimising cost while...... maximising probability. In order to tackle this challenge, we devise automated techniques that optimise all parameters at once. Moreover, in the case of conflicting parameters our techniques compute the set of all optimal solutions, defined in terms of Pareto efficiency. The developments are carried out...

New perspectives on the ecology of tree structure and tree communities through terrestrial laser scanning.

Science.gov (United States)

Malhi, Yadvinder; Jackson, Tobias; Patrick Bentley, Lisa; Lau, Alvaro; Shenkin, Alexander; Herold, Martin; Calders, Kim; Bartholomeus, Harm; Disney, Mathias I

2018-04-06

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) opens up the possibility of describing the three-dimensional structures of trees in natural environments with unprecedented detail and accuracy. It is already being extensively applied to describe how ecosystem biomass and structure vary between sites, but can also facilitate major advances in developing and testing mechanistic theories of tree form and forest structure, thereby enabling us to understand why trees and forests have the biomass and three-dimensional structure they do. Here we focus on the ecological challenges and benefits of understanding tree form, and highlight some advances related to capturing and describing tree shape that are becoming possible with the advent of TLS. We present examples of ongoing work that applies, or could potentially apply, new TLS measurements to better understand the constraints on optimization of tree form. Theories of resource distribution networks, such as metabolic scaling theory, can be tested and further refined. TLS can also provide new approaches to the scaling of woody surface area and crown area, and thereby better quantify the metabolism of trees. Finally, we demonstrate how we can develop a more mechanistic understanding of the effects of avoidance of wind risk on tree form and maximum size. Over the next few years, TLS promises to deliver both major empirical and conceptual advances in the quantitative understanding of trees and tree-dominated ecosystems, leading to advances in understanding the ecology of why trees and ecosystems look and grow the way they do.

Using the Analytical Network Process to Select the Best Strategy for Reducing Risks in a Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Hosseini

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers four types of the most prominent risks in the supply chain. Their subcriteria and relations between them and within the network are also considered. In a supply chain, risks are mostly created by fluctuations. The aim of this study is to adopt a strategy for eliminating or reducing risks in a supply chain network. Having various solutions helps the supply chain to be resilient. Therefore, five alternatives are considered, namely, total quality management (TQM, leanness, alignment, adaptability, and agility. This paper develops a new network of supply chain risks by considering the interactions between risks. Perhaps, the network elements have interacted with some or all of the factors (clusters or subfactors. We constitute supply chain risks in the analytic network process (ANP, which attracted less attention in the previous studies. Most of the studies about making a decision in supply chains have been applied in analytic hierarchy process (AHP network. The present study considers the ANP as a well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM technique to choose the best alternative, because of the interdependency and feedbacks of different levels of the network. Finally, the ANP selects TQM as the best alternative among the considered ones.

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Overview of Risk Quantification Issues for Digitalized Nuclear Power Plants using a Static Fault Tree

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Hyun Gook; Kim, Man Cheol; Lee, Seung Jun; Lee, Ho Jung; Eom, Heung Seop; Chol, Jong Gyun; Jang, Seung Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-08-15

Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I and C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system

Pattern recognition of spruce trees. An integrated, analytical approach to forest damage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmleit, N.; Schulten, H.R.

1989-01-01

In-source pyrolysis-field ionization mass spectrometry was used to fingerprint old needles taken from 90-year-old Norway spruce trees (Picea abies) grown in the Taunus mountains (Federal Republic of Germany). Biometric, physiological variables and elemental compositions of needle and forest soil samples were gathered for the same trees. The mass spectral and conventional data sets were evaluated by principal-component and multiple regression analysis. The results indicate that the mass signal pattern of antioxidants, the soil acidity, the water status, and the nutritional supply of the plant contribute most to the variance of damage symptoms observed in the forest stand investigated. The visual needle loss of the canopy can be predicted by antioxidant, soil acidity, and water status parameters, whereas a further classification according to the discoloration of the needles can only be achieved by adding a soil nutrient component. It is emphasized that multivariate statistical evaluation of complex data sets should be used for the investigation of environmental problems

Estimating phylogenetic relationships despite discordant gene trees across loci: the species tree of a diverse species group of feather mites (Acari: Proctophyllodidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Knowles, Lacey L; Klimov, Pavel B

2011-11-01

With the increased availability of multilocus sequence data, the lack of concordance of gene trees estimated for independent loci has focused attention on both the biological processes producing the discord and the methodologies used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. What has emerged is a suite of new analytical tools for phylogenetic inference--species tree approaches. In contrast to traditional phylogenetic methods that are stymied by the idiosyncrasies of gene trees, approaches for estimating species trees explicitly take into account the cause of discord among loci and, in the process, provides a direct estimate of phylogenetic history (i.e. the history of species divergence, not divergence of specific loci). We illustrate the utility of species tree estimates with an analysis of a diverse group of feather mites, the pinnatus species group (genus Proctophyllodes). Discord among four sequenced nuclear loci is consistent with theoretical expectations, given the short time separating speciation events (as evident by short internodes relative to terminal branch lengths in the trees). Nevertheless, many of the relationships are well resolved in a Bayesian estimate of the species tree; the analysis also highlights ambiguous aspects of the phylogeny that require additional loci. The broad utility of species tree approaches is discussed, and specifically, their application to groups with high speciation rates--a history of diversification with particular prevalence in host/parasite systems where species interactions can drive rapid diversification.

Simple Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus via Decision Tree Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrab Sayadi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM is one of the most important risk factors in cardiovascular disorders considered as a common clinical and public health problem. Early diagnosis can reduce the burden of the disease. Decision tree, as an advanced data mining method, can be used as a reliable tool to predict T2DM. Objectives: This study aimed to present a simple model for predicting T2DM using decision tree modeling. Materials and Methods: This analytical model-based study used a part of the cohort data obtained from a database in Healthy Heart House of Shiraz, Iran. The data included routine information, such as age, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI, family history of diabetes, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which were obtained from the individuals referred for gathering baseline data in Shiraz cohort study from 2014 to 2015. Diabetes diagnosis was used as binary datum. Decision tree technique and J48 algorithm were applied using the WEKA software (version 3.7.5, New Zealand. Additionally, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC curve and Area Under Curve (AUC were used for checking the goodness of fit. Results: The age of the 11302 cases obtained after data preparation ranged from 18 to 89 years with the mean age of 48.1 ± 11.4 years. Additionally, 51.1% of the cases were male. In the tree structure, blood pressure and age were placed where most information was gained. In our model, however, gender was not important and was placed on the final branch of the tree. Total precision and AUC were 87% and 89%, respectively. This indicated that the model had good accuracy for distinguishing patients from normal individuals. Conclusions: The results showed that T2DM could be predicted via decision tree model without laboratory tests. Thus, this model can be used in pre-clinical and public health screening programs.

A review of pruning fruit trees

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, L.; Koc, A. B.; Wang, X. N.; Jiang, Y. X.

2018-05-01

The focus of this review is to present the results of studies and articles about ways to prune fruit trees. Pruning should be done in late winter or early spring so that the infection risk can be significantly decreased. This review will also offer an overview of methods to prevent infections and speed up recovery on the trees. The following is an interpretation of why high-power ultrasonic assisted pruning in the fruits trees is needed and will elaborate on the efficiency, labor costs, and safety, as well as space, location, and some environmental issues.

Systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 5.0. Fault tree, event tree, and piping ampersand instrumentation diagram (FEP) editors reference manual: Volume 7

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKay, M.K.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Fault Tree, Event Tree, and Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (FEP) editors allow the user to graphically build and edit fault trees, and event trees, and piping and instrumentation diagrams (P and IDs). The software is designed to enable the independent use of the graphical-based editors found in the Integrated Reliability and Risk Assessment System (IRRAS). FEP is comprised of three separate editors (Fault Tree, Event Tree, and Piping and Instrumentation Diagram) and a utility module. This reference manual provides a screen-by-screen guide of the entire FEP System

Prioritization of chemicals in the aquatic environment based on risk assessment: analytical, modeling and regulatory perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Guillén, D; Ginebreda, A; Farré, M; Darbra, R M; Petrovic, M; Gros, M; Barceló, D

2012-12-01

The extensive and intensive use of chemicals in our developed, highly technological society includes more than 100,000 chemical substances. Significant scientific evidence has lead to the recognition that their improper use and release may result in undesirable and harmful side-effects on both the human and ecosystem health. To cope with them, appropriate risk assessment processes and related prioritization schemes have been developed in order to provide the necessary scientific support for regulatory procedures. In the present paper, two of the elements that constitute the core of risk assessment, namely occurrence and hazard effects, have been discussed. Recent advances in analytical chemistry (sample pre-treatment and instrumental equipment, etc.) have allowed for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental pollution reaching limits of detection up to sub ng L(-1). Alternative to analytical measurements, occurrence models can provide risk managers with a very interesting approach for estimating environmental concentrations from real or hypothetical scenarios. The most representative prioritization schemes used for issuing lists of concerning chemicals have also been examined and put in the context of existing environmental policies for protection strategies and regulations. Finally, new challenges in the field of risk-assessment have been outlined, including those posed by new materials (i.e., nanomaterials), transformation products, multi-chemical exposure, or extension of the risk assessment process to the whole ecosystem. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing systemic risk using non-linear marginal expected shortfall and its minimum spanning tree

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Chang, Woojin

2018-02-01

The aim of this paper is to propose a new theoretical framework for analyzing the systemic risk using the marginal expected shortfall (MES) and its correlation-based minimum spanning tree (MST). At first, we develop two parametric models of MES with their closed-form solutions based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Our models are derived from the non-symmetric quadratic form, which allows them to consolidate the non-linear relationship between the stock and market returns. Secondly, we discover the evidences related to the utility of our models and the possible association in between the non-linear relationship and the emergence of severe systemic risk by considering the US financial system as a benchmark. In this context, the evolution of MES also can be regarded as a reasonable proxy of systemic risk. Lastly, we analyze the structural properties of the systemic risk using the MST based on the computed series of MES. The topology of MST conveys the presence of sectoral clustering and strong co-movements of systemic risk leaded by few hubs during the crisis. Specifically, we discover that the Depositories are the majority sector leading the connections during the Non-Crisis period, whereas the Broker-Dealers are majority during the Crisis period.

Mason’s equation application for prediction of voltage of oil shale treeing breakdown

Science.gov (United States)

Martemyanov, S. M.

2017-05-01

The application of the formula, which is used to calculate the maximum field at the tip of the pin-plane electrode system was proposed to describe the process of electrical treeing and treeing breakdown in an oil shale. An analytical expression for the calculation of the treeing breakdown voltage in the oil shale, as a function of the inter-electrode distance, was taken. A high accuracy of the correspondence of the model to the experimental data in the range of inter-electrode distances from 0.03 to 0.5 m was taken.

Combined prediction model for supply risk in nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry based on support vector machine and decision tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Chunsheng; Meng Dapeng

2011-01-01

The prediction index for supply risk is developed based on the factor identifying of nuclear equipment manufacturing industry. The supply risk prediction model is established with the method of support vector machine and decision tree, based on the investigation on 3 important nuclear power equipment manufacturing enterprises and 60 suppliers. Final case study demonstrates that the combination model is better than the single prediction model, and demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of this model, which provides a method to evaluate the suppliers and measure the supply risk. (authors)

Probabilistic risk assessment using event tables and the BNL [Brookhaven National Laboratory] event-tree analyzer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fullwood, R.R.; Shier, W.G.

1989-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is being used to study design alternatives for the advanced neutron source research reactor being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for operation in the 1990s. Major communication paths between the designers and the safety analysts are accident discussions supported by event tables, event-tree graphics, and accident sequence probabilities. The BETA code used in conjunction with a word processor provides this linkage. This paper describes the process, features of the BETA, how it works, and some examples of usage

Subject-enabled analytics model on measurement statistics in health risk expert system for public health informatics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Chi-Jung; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Hsieh, Yun-Yu; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liang, Wen-Miin; Liao, Li-Na; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Hsueh-Chun

2017-11-01

This study applied open source technology to establish a subject-enabled analytics model that can enhance measurement statistics of case studies with the public health data in cloud computing. The infrastructure of the proposed model comprises three domains: 1) the health measurement data warehouse (HMDW) for the case study repository, 2) the self-developed modules of online health risk information statistics (HRIStat) for cloud computing, and 3) the prototype of a Web-based process automation system in statistics (PASIS) for the health risk assessment of case studies with subject-enabled evaluation. The system design employed freeware including Java applications, MySQL, and R packages to drive a health risk expert system (HRES). In the design, the HRIStat modules enforce the typical analytics methods for biomedical statistics, and the PASIS interfaces enable process automation of the HRES for cloud computing. The Web-based model supports both modes, step-by-step analysis and auto-computing process, respectively for preliminary evaluation and real time computation. The proposed model was evaluated by computing prior researches in relation to the epidemiological measurement of diseases that were caused by either heavy metal exposures in the environment or clinical complications in hospital. The simulation validity was approved by the commercial statistics software. The model was installed in a stand-alone computer and in a cloud-server workstation to verify computing performance for a data amount of more than 230K sets. Both setups reached efficiency of about 10 5 sets per second. The Web-based PASIS interface can be used for cloud computing, and the HRIStat module can be flexibly expanded with advanced subjects for measurement statistics. The analytics procedure of the HRES prototype is capable of providing assessment criteria prior to estimating the potential risk to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of geocast routing trees on random and actual networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijerink, Berend Jan; Baratchi, Mitra; Heijenk, Geert; Koucheryavy, Yevgeni; Mamatas, Lefteris; Matta, Ibrahim; Ometov, Aleksandr; Papadimitriou, Panagiotis

2017-01-01

Efficient geocast routing schemes are needed to transmit messages to mobile networked devices in geographically scoped areas. To design an efficient geocast routing algorithm a comprehensive evaluation of different routing tree approaches is needed. In this paper, we present an analytical study

Functional-analytical capabilities of GIS technology in the study of water use risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nevidimova, O G; Yankovich, E P; Yankovich, K S

2015-01-01

Regional security aspects of economic activities are of great importance for legal regulation in environmental management. This has become a critical issue due to climate change, especially in regions where severe climate conditions have a great impact on almost all types of natural resource uses. A detailed analysis of climate and hydrological situation in Tomsk Oblast considering water use risks was carried out. Based on developed author's techniques an informational and analytical database was created using ArcGIS software platform, which combines statistical (quantitative) and spatial characteristics of natural hazards and socio-economic factors. This system was employed to perform areal zoning according to the degree of water use risks involved

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Roux, Izak Johannes, III

Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

Integrated fault tree development environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dixon, B.W.

1986-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are utilized in the nuclear industry to perform safety analyses of complex defense-in-depth systems. A major effort in PRA development is fault tree construction. The Integrated Fault Tree Environment (IFTREE) is an interactive, graphics-based tool for fault tree design. IFTREE provides integrated building, editing, and analysis features on a personal workstation. The design philosophy of IFTREE is presented, and the interface is described. IFTREE utilizes a unique rule-based solution algorithm founded in artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The impact of the AI approach on the program design is stressed. IFTREE has been developed to handle the design and maintenance of full-size living PRAs and is currently in use

Observing of tree trunks and other cylindrical objects using GPR

Science.gov (United States)

Jezova, Jana; Lambot, Sebastien

2016-04-01

Trees are a part of our everyday life, hence it is important to prevent their collapse to protect people and urban infrastructures. It is also important to characterize tree wood properties for usages in construction. In order to investigate internal parts of tree trunks non-invasively, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), or in this case, ultra-wideband microwave radar as a general tool, appears to be a very promising technology. Nevertheless, tree trunk tomography using microwave radar is a complicated task due to the circular shape of the trunk and the very complex (heterogeneous and anisotropic) internal structures of the trunk. Microwave sensing of tree trunks is also complicated due to the electromagnetic properties of living wood, which strongly depend on water content, density and temperature of wood. The objective of this study is to describe tree trunk radar cross sections including specific features originating from the particular circumferential data acquisition geometry. In that respect, three experiments were performed: (1) numerical simulations using a finite-difference time-domain software, namely, gprMax 2D, (2) measurements on a simplified laboratory trunk model including plastic and cardboard pipes, sand and air, and (3) measurements over a real tree trunk. The analysis was further deepened by considering: (1) common zero-offset reflection imaging, (2) imaging with a planar perfect electrical conductor (PEC) at the opposite side of the trunk, and (3) imaging with a PEC arc at the opposite side of the trunk. Furthermore, the shape of the reflection curve of a cylindrical target was analytically derived based on the straight-ray propagation approximation. Subsequently, the total internal reflection (TIR) phenomenon occurring in cylindrical objects was observed and analytically described. Both the straight-ray reflection curve and TIR were well observed on the simulated and laboratory radar data. A comparison between all experiments and radar

Stress wave velocity patterns in the longitudinal-radial plane of trees for defect diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Guanghui Li; Xiang Weng; Xiaocheng Du; Xiping Wang; Hailin Feng

2016-01-01

Acoustic tomography for urban tree inspection typically uses stress wave data to reconstruct tomographic images for the trunk cross section using interpolation algorithm. This traditional technique does not take into account the stress wave velocity patterns along tree height. In this study, we proposed an analytical model for the wave velocity in the longitudinal–...

When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests

Science.gov (United States)

Brad Oberle; Kiona Ogle; Amy E. Zanne; Christopher W. Woodall

2018-01-01

When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests...

Multielemental analyses of tree rings by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, G.S.

1990-01-01

Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was evaluated for major, minor, trace, and ultra-trace elemental analyses of individual tree rings. The samples were obtained from an old-growth Douglas fir growing near Mount St. Helens volcano, and from trees at various other North American sites. Eightly percent of elements from Li to U had detection limits in the solid (wood) below 8.0 ng g -1 . Two anomalous peaks occur in Mount St. Helens samples at A.D. 1478 and 1490 that closely correlate with past eruptions of the volcano. These results show that ICP-MS is a rapid and sensitive analytical method for multielemental analyses of individual tree rings. (author) 16 refs.; 2 figs.; 2 tabs

A tree girdling beetle in Korogwe District: its potential risk to ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A study was conducted to identify and assess damage of an insect pest girdling young Eucalypts in Korogwe Forest Plantation, Tanga. Purposive sampling was employed to establish 10 plots of 10m by 10m. A total of 90 trees were sampled. Insect pest specimens were collected and girdled trees counted in each plot. The

The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

2016-08-01

The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RFID Privacy Risk Evaluation Based on Synthetic Method of Extended Attack Tree and Information Feature Entropy

OpenAIRE

Li, Peng; Xu, Chao; Chen, Long; Wang, Ruchuan

2015-01-01

Evaluation of security risks in radio frequency identification (RFID) systems is a challenging problem in Internet of Things (IoT). This paper proposes an extended attack tree (EAT) model to identify RFID system’s flaws and vulnerabilities. A corresponding formal description of the model is described which adds a probability SAND node together with the probability attribute of the node attack. In addition, we model the process of an RFID data privacy attack based on EAT, taking a sensitive in...

Drought-associated tree mortality: Global patterns and insights from tree-ring studies in the southwestern U.S.A

Science.gov (United States)

Macalady, Alison Kelly

Forests play an important role in the earth system, regulating climate, maintaining biodiversity, and provisioning human communities with water, food and fuel. Interactions between climate and forest dynamics are not well constrained, and high uncertainty characterizes projections of global warming impacts on forests and associated ecosystem services. Recently observed tree mortality and forest die-off forewarn an acceleration of forest change with rising temperature and increased drought. However, the processes leading to tree death during drought are poorly understood, limiting our ability to anticipate future forest dynamics. The objective of this dissertation was to improve understanding of drought-associated tree mortality through literature synthesis and tree-ring studies on trees that survived and died during droughts in the southwestern USA. Specifically, this dissertation 1) documented global tree mortality patterns and identified emerging trends and research gaps; 2) quantified relationships between growth, climate, competition and mortality of pinon pine during droughts in New Mexico; 3) investigated tree defense anatomy as a potentially key element in pinon avoidance of death; and, 4) characterized the climate sensitivity of pinon resin ducts in order to gain insight into potential trends in tree defenses with climate variability and change. There has been an increase in studies reporting tree mortality linked to drought, heat, and the associated activity of insects and pathogens. Cases span the forested continents and occurred in water, light and temperature-limited forests. We hypothesized that increased tree mortality may be an emerging global phenomenon related to rising temperatures and drought (Appendix A). Recent radial growth was 53% higher on average in pinon that survived versus died during two episodes of drought-associated mortality, and statistical models of mortality risk based on average growth, growth variability, and abrupt growth

Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

2006-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

Maximum likelihood inference of small trees in the presence of long branches.

Science.gov (United States)

Parks, Sarah L; Goldman, Nick

2014-09-01

The statistical basis of maximum likelihood (ML), its robustness, and the fact that it appears to suffer less from biases lead to it being one of the most popular methods for tree reconstruction. Despite its popularity, very few analytical solutions for ML exist, so biases suffered by ML are not well understood. One possible bias is long branch attraction (LBA), a regularly cited term generally used to describe a propensity for long branches to be joined together in estimated trees. Although initially mentioned in connection with inconsistency of parsimony, LBA has been claimed to affect all major phylogenetic reconstruction methods, including ML. Despite the widespread use of this term in the literature, exactly what LBA is and what may be causing it is poorly understood, even for simple evolutionary models and small model trees. Studies looking at LBA have focused on the effect of two long branches on tree reconstruction. However, to understand the effect of two long branches it is also important to understand the effect of just one long branch. If ML struggles to reconstruct one long branch, then this may have an impact on LBA. In this study, we look at the effect of one long branch on three-taxon tree reconstruction. We show that, counterintuitively, long branches are preferentially placed at the tips of the tree. This can be understood through the use of analytical solutions to the ML equation and distance matrix methods. We go on to look at the placement of two long branches on four-taxon trees, showing that there is no attraction between long branches, but that for extreme branch lengths long branches are joined together disproportionally often. These results illustrate that even small model trees are still interesting to help understand how ML phylogenetic reconstruction works, and that LBA is a complicated phenomenon that deserves further study. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Categorizing ideas about trees: a tree of trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisler, Marie; Lecointre, Guillaume

2013-01-01

The aim of this study is to explore whether matrices and MP trees used to produce systematic categories of organisms could be useful to produce categories of ideas in history of science. We study the history of the use of trees in systematics to represent the diversity of life from 1766 to 1991. We apply to those ideas a method inspired from coding homologous parts of organisms. We discretize conceptual parts of ideas, writings and drawings about trees contained in 41 main writings; we detect shared parts among authors and code them into a 91-characters matrix and use a tree representation to show who shares what with whom. In other words, we propose a hierarchical representation of the shared ideas about trees among authors: this produces a "tree of trees." Then, we categorize schools of tree-representations. Classical schools like "cladists" and "pheneticists" are recovered but others are not: "gradists" are separated into two blocks, one of them being called here "grade theoreticians." We propose new interesting categories like the "buffonian school," the "metaphoricians," and those using "strictly genealogical classifications." We consider that networks are not useful to represent shared ideas at the present step of the study. A cladogram is made for showing who is sharing what with whom, but also heterobathmy and homoplasy of characters. The present cladogram is not modelling processes of transmission of ideas about trees, and here it is mostly used to test for proximity of ideas of the same age and for categorization.

Mitigating Sports Injury Risks Using Internet of Things and Analytics Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkerson, Gary B; Gupta, Ashish; Colston, Marisa A

2018-03-12

Sport injuries restrict participation, impose a substantial economic burden, and can have persisting adverse effects on health-related quality of life. The effective use of Internet of Things (IoT), when combined with analytics approaches, can improve player safety through identification of injury risk factors that can be addressed by targeted risk reduction training activities. Use of IoT devices can facilitate highly efficient quantification of relevant functional capabilities prior to sport participation, which could substantially advance the prevailing sport injury management paradigm. This study introduces a framework for using sensor-derived IoT data to supplement other data for objective estimation of each individual college football player's level of injury risk, which is an approach to injury prevention that has not been previously reported. A cohort of 45 NCAA Division I-FCS college players provided data in the form of self-ratings of persisting effects of previous injuries and single-leg postural stability test. Instantaneous change in body mass acceleration (jerk) during the test was quantified by a smartphone accelerometer, with data wirelessly transmitted to a secure cloud server. Injuries sustained from the beginning of practice sessions until the end of the 13-game season were documented, along with the number of games played by each athlete over the course of a 13-game season. Results demonstrate a strong prediction model. Our approach may have strong relevance to the estimation of injury risk for other physically demanding activities. Clearly, there is great potential for improvement of injury prevention initiatives through identification of individual athletes who possess elevated injury risk and targeted interventions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

2015-01-01

We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costas Armenakis

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

Wind-Induced Reconfigurations in Flexible Branched Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Ojo, Oluwafemi; Shoele, Kourosh

2017-11-01

Wind induced stresses are the major mechanical cause of failure in trees. We know that the branching mechanism has an important effect on the stress distribution and stability of a tree in the wind. Eloy in PRL 2011, showed that Leonardo da Vinci's original observation which states the total cross section of branches is conserved across branching nodes is the best configuration for resisting wind-induced fracture in rigid trees. However, prediction of the fracture risk and pattern of a tree is also a function of their reconfiguration capabilities and how they mitigate large wind-induced stresses. In this studies through developing an efficient numerical simulation of flexible branched trees, we explore the role of the tree flexibility on the optimal branching. Our results show that the probability of a tree breaking at any point depends on both the cross-section changes in the branching nodes and the level of tree flexibility. It is found that the branching mechanism based on Leonardo da Vinci's original observation leads to a uniform stress distribution over a wide range of flexibilities but the pattern changes for more flexible systems.

Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

2016-01-07

Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinsoo Shin

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

Science.gov (United States)

Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

2013-01-01

Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

An Analysis of Machine- and Human-Analytics in Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Tam, Gary K L; Kothari, Vivek; Chen, Min

2017-01-01

In this work, we present a study that traces the technical and cognitive processes in two visual analytics applications to a common theoretic model of soft knowledge that may be added into a visual analytics process for constructing a decision-tree model. Both case studies involved the development of classification models based on the "bag of features" approach. Both compared a visual analytics approach using parallel coordinates with a machine-learning approach using information theory. Both found that the visual analytics approach had some advantages over the machine learning approach, especially when sparse datasets were used as the ground truth. We examine various possible factors that may have contributed to such advantages, and collect empirical evidence for supporting the observation and reasoning of these factors. We propose an information-theoretic model as a common theoretic basis to explain the phenomena exhibited in these two case studies. Together we provide interconnected empirical and theoretical evidence to support the usefulness of visual analytics.

Chip and truck: Comparing the cost of using trees to heat buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Robin Silverstein; Dan Loeffler; J. Greg Jones; Dave Calkin; Hans Zuuring; Martin. Twer

2009-01-01

In the Western United States, many of the forests have too many small trees (figure 1). These small trees increase the risk of wildfire. Forest managers, therefore, want to remove the small trees. Some scientists believe these small trees may be a good source of fuel. To explore this possibility, a program called "Fuels for Schools" was created in...

Analytical quality by design: a tool for regulatory flexibility and robust analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Peraman, Ramalingam; Bhadraya, Kalva; Padmanabha Reddy, Yiragamreddy

2015-01-01

Very recently, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a few new drug applications (NDA) with regulatory flexibility for quality by design (QbD) based analytical approach. The concept of QbD applied to analytical method development is known now as AQbD (analytical quality by design). It allows the analytical method for movement within method operable design region (MODR). Unlike current methods, analytical method developed using analytical quality by design (AQbD) approach reduces the number of out-of-trend (OOT) results and out-of-specification (OOS) results due to the robustness of the method within the region. It is a current trend among pharmaceutical industry to implement analytical quality by design (AQbD) in method development process as a part of risk management, pharmaceutical development, and pharmaceutical quality system (ICH Q10). Owing to the lack explanatory reviews, this paper has been communicated to discuss different views of analytical scientists about implementation of AQbD in pharmaceutical quality system and also to correlate with product quality by design and pharmaceutical analytical technology (PAT).

Monitoring environmental stress in forest trees using biochemical and physiological markers

Science.gov (United States)

R. Minocha; S.C. Minocha; S. Long

2003-01-01

Our objective was to determine the usefulness of polyamines, particularly putrescine, and amino acids such as arginine, as foliar indicators of abiotic stress in visually asymptomatic trees. An evaluation of apparently healthy trees is essential in developing risk assessment and stress remediation strategies for forest trees prior to the onset of obvious decline....

Development of label dosimeters and analytical methods to verify absorbed dose in irradiated dried fruits/tree nuts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattar, Abdus; Ahmad, Anwar; Atta, Shaheen

2001-01-01

Density measurements of fresh/dried fruits and tree nuts varied depending upon the package size, type and the nature of the sample. For the development of label dosimeters, the samples of clear PMMA in the thickness range of 410 mm gave a linear response in relation to the irradiation doses (0.125-1.0 kGy) and the optical response was stable almost for 6 months at ambient storage (20-35 deg. C; R.H 40-80%). Flexible polymers (polyethylene and PVC) materials were not found suitable in the dose range of 0.1-3.0 kGy. Subjective evaluation of Sterin indicator, an ISP product from USA, revealed that this new material is generally reliable, however, they were also affected by the doses lower than their threshold values (125 and 300 Gy) as well as exposure to light during storage. The yellow PMMA dosimeter (YLPMMA) developed by China was useful in the range of 125-1000 Gy of gamma radiation. Dose distribution studies of research irradiator at NIFA and a commercial gamma source (PARAS) at Lahore, indicated almost a good dose uniformity in the product containers in each case. Among the analytical methods (thermoluminescence and gas chromatography) the thermoluminescence measurements exhibited clearly reproducible and dose dependent differences between treated (0.5-1.5 kGy) and untreated samples of dried fruits/nuts. (author)

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hetang Wang

Full Text Available Coal dust explosions (CDE are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

2013-09-01

The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phytoextraction of risk elements by willow and poplar trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kacálková, Lada; Tlustoš, Pavel; Száková, Jiřina

2015-01-01

To characterize the phytoextraction efficiency of two clones of willow trees (Salix x smithiana Willd., Salix rubens) and two clones of poplar trees (Populus nigra x maximowiczii, Populus nigra Wolterson) were planted in contaminated soil (0.4-2.0 mg Cd.kg(-1), 78-313 mg Zn.kg(-1), 21.3-118 mg Cu.kg(-1)). Field experiment was carried out in Czech Republic. The study investigated their ability to accumulate heavy metals (Cd, Zn, and Cu) in harvestable plant parts. The poplars produced higher amount of biomass than willows. Both Salix clones accumulated higher amount of Cd, Zn and Cu in their biomass (maximum 6.8 mg Cd.kg(-1), 909 mg Zn.kg(-1), and 17.7 mg Cu.kg(-1)) compared to Populus clones (maximum 2.06 mg Cd.kg(-1), 463 mg Zn.kg(-1), and 11.8 mg Cu.kg(-1)). There were no significant differences between clones of individual species. BCs for Cd and Zn were greater than 1 (the highest in willow leaves). BCs values of Cu were very low. These results indicate that Salix is more suitable plant for phytoextraction of Cd and Zn than Populus. The Cu phytoextraction potential of Salix and Populus trees was not confirmed in this experiment due to low soil availability of this element.

Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Computer and Game Science, Joongbu University, Geumsan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-04-15

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young; Son, Han Seong

2017-01-01

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks

Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

2014-11-01

Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

Prevalence of risk factors for stuttering among boys: analytical cross-sectional study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristiane Moço Canhetti Oliveira

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:There have been few studies on the risk factors for subgroups of stuttering. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk factors for developmental familial stuttering among boys who stutter and who do not stutter, such as disfluency types, associated quality and communication factors, emotional and physical stress, familial attitudes and personal reactions.DESIGN AND SETTING:Analytical cross-sectional study with a control group, performed at the Fluency Studies Laboratory of the Department of Speech and Hearing Disorders of a public university.METHODS: The parents of 40 age-matched stuttering and non-stuttering boys took part in this study. The participants were divided into two groups: stuttering children (SC and non-stuttering children (NSC, with ages between 6 years 0 months and 11 years 11 months. Initially, all of the participants underwent a fluency assessment and then data were gathered using the Protocol for the Risk of Developmental Stuttering.RESULTS:There were no differences in the physical stress distribution factors and personal reactions between the groups. Inappropriate familial attitudes were presented by 95% of the SC and 30% of the NSC. Four risk factors analyzed were not shown by the NSC, namely stuttering-like disfluency, quality factors, physical stress and emotional stresses.CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest that the presence of stuttering-like disfluency, associated quality and communication factors, emotional stress and inappropriate family attitudes are important risk factors for familial developmental stuttering among boys.

When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Oberle, Brad; Ogle, Kiona; Zanne, Amy E; Woodall, Christopher W

2018-01-01

When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests requires predicting when snags fall as wood decay erodes mechanical resistance to breaking forces. Previous studies have pointed to common predictors, such as stem size, degree of decay and species identity, but few have assessed the relative strength of underlying mechanisms driving snag fall across biomes. Here, we analyze nearly 100,000 repeated snag observations from boreal to subtropical forests across the eastern United States to show that wood decay controls snag fall in ways that could generate previously unrecognized forest-climate feedback. Warmer locations where wood decays quickly had much faster rates of snag fall. The effect of temperature on snag fall was so strong that in a simple forest C model, anticipated warming by mid-century reduced snag C by 22%. Furthermore, species-level differences in wood decay resistance (durability) accurately predicted the timing of snag fall. Differences in half-life for standing dead trees were similar to expected differences in the service lifetimes of wooden structures built from their timber. Strong effects of temperature and wood durability imply future forests where dying trees fall and decay faster than at present, reducing terrestrial C storage and snag-dependent wildlife habitat. These results can improve the representation of forest C cycling and assist forest managers by helping predict when a dead tree may fall.

Autumn frost hardiness in Norway spruce plus tree progeny and trees of the local and transferred provenances in central Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannerz, Mats; Westin, Johan

2005-09-01

Reforestation with provenances from locations remote from the planting site (transferred provenances) or the progeny of trees of local provenances selected for superior form and vigor (plus trees) offer alternative means to increase yield over that obtained by the use of seed from unselected trees of the local provenance. Under Swedish conditions, Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) of certain transferred provenances generally has an advantage in productivity relative to the local provenance comparable to that of progeny of plus trees. The aim of this study was to explore the extent to which productivity gains achieved by provenance transfer or the use of plus tree progeny are associated with reductions in autumn frost hardiness, relative to that of trees of the local provenance. In a field trial with 19-year-old trees in central Sweden, bud hardiness was tested on four occasions during the autumn of 2002. Trees of the local provenance were compared with trees of a south Swedish provenance originating 3 degrees of latitude to the south, a Belarusian provenance and the progeny of plus trees of local origin. The Belarusian provenance was the least hardy and the local provenance the most hardy, with plus tree progeny and the south Swedish provenance being intermediate in hardiness. Both the Belarusian provenance and the plus tree progeny were significantly taller than trees of the other populations. Within provenances, tree height was negatively correlated with autumn frost hardiness. Among the plus tree progeny, however, no such correlation between tree height and autumn frost hardiness was found. It is concluded that although the gain in productivity achieved by provenance transfer from Belarus was comparable to that achieved by using the progeny of plus trees of the local provenance, the use of trees of the Belarus provenance involved an increased risk of autumn frost damage because of later hardening.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

Environmental effects on pine tree carbon budgets and resistance to bark beetles

Science.gov (United States)

Richard T. Wilkens; Matthew P. Ayres; Peter L. Lorio; John D. Hodges

1998-01-01

Our results indicate that increased nutrient availability leads to an increase in growth and a reduction in resin-based defenses.Because of this, we recommend that foresters and planners consider the effect of fertilization and site fertility on both tree growth and SPB risk.Unfortunately, increased tree growth may frequently be associated with increased SPB risk.The...

Generation Risk Assessment Using Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation: Case Studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun

2009-01-01

Since 2007, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and Kyung Hee University have collaborated on the development of the framework to quantify human errors broken out during the test and maintenance (T and M) in secondary systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The project entitled 'Development of Causality Analyzer for Maintenance/Test Tasks in Nuclear Power Plants' for OPR1000 on the basis of the proposed framework is still on-going, and will come to fruition by 2010. The overall concept of GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) which is the designation of the framework, and the quantification methods for evaluating risk and electric loss have introduced in other references. The originality emerged while implementing GRA-HRE could be evaluated in view of (1) recognizing the relative importance of human errors comparing with other types of mechanical and/or electrical failures, (2) providing the top-down path of the propagation of human errors by designating top events in the fault tree model as trip signals, and (3) analyzing electric loss using turbine cycle simulation. Recently, we were successfully to illustrate the applicability of GRA-HRE by simulating several abnormalities. Since the detailed methodologies were released enough to follow up, this paper is going to only exemplify the case studies

A comparative critical study between FMEA and FTA risk analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Cristea, G.; Constantinescu, DM

2017-10-01

Today there is used an overwhelming number of different risk analyses techniques with acronyms such as: FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and its extension FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis), DRBFM (Design Review by Failure Mode), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and and its extension ETA (Event Tree Analysis), HAZOP (Hazard & Operability Studies), HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) and What-if/Checklist. However, the most used analysis techniques in the mechanical and electrical industry are FMEA and FTA. In FMEA, which is an inductive method, information about the consequences and effects of the failures is usually collected through interviews with experienced people, and with different knowledge i.e., cross-functional groups. The FMEA is used to capture potential failures/risks & impacts and prioritize them on a numeric scale called Risk Priority Number (RPN) which ranges from 1 to 1000. FTA is a deductive method i.e., a general system state is decomposed into chains of more basic events of components. The logical interrelationship of how such basic events depend on and affect each other is often described analytically in a reliability structure which can be visualized as a tree. Both methods are very time-consuming to be applied thoroughly, and this is why it is oftenly not done so. As a consequence possible failure modes may not be identified. To address these shortcomings, it is proposed to use a combination of FTA and FMEA.

Learning Analytics at Low Cost: At-Risk Student Prediction with Clicker Data and Systematic Proactive Interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Samuel P. M.; Lam, S. S.; Li, Kam Cheong; Wong, Billy T. M.

2018-01-01

While learning analytics (LA) practices have been shown to be practical and effective, most of them require a huge amount of data and effort. This paper reports a case study which demonstrates the feasibility of practising LA at a low cost for instructors to identify at-risk students in an undergraduate business quantitative methods course.…

Public perception of analytical risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waite, D.A.; McCormack, W.D.

1990-01-01

Most analytical assessments of potential impacts on the environment from US Department of Energy (DOE) activities receive, at some point in their development, public scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to discuss the apparent perception of these assessments held by the public reviewers, based on written and verbal comments that they have offered. The discussion begins with a short overview of the analytical assessment process most often used on DOE projects. The process is described in terms of the basic process elements and data sources involved. Based on this outline of the assessment process, the key elements from the public's perspective are identified and examined on the basis of Importance Criteria and the Perception Framework in which the Importance Criteria appear to be applied. The paper is concluded with an analysis of the key elements of the public's perception. This section of the discussion is formatted to couple observational evidence of public perception difficulties with key assessment elements, and these difficulties with potential alternative approaches that serve the same purpose but are more acceptable to the public

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, M.E.

1981-01-01

An abbreviated fault tree method is used to evaluate and model Browns Ferry systems in the Interim Reliability Evaluation programs, simplifying the recording and displaying of events, yet maintaining the system of identifying faults. The level of investigation is not changed. The analytical thought process inherent in the conventional method is not compromised. But the abbreviated method takes less time, and the fault modes are much more visible

Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W.; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J.; Coppo, R.; Haffner, D.; Harambat, J.; Stefanidis, C.; Shitza, D.; Kramar, R.; Oberbauer, R.; Baiko, S.; Sukalo, A.; van Hoeck, K.; Collart, F.; des Grottes, J. M.; Pokrajac, D.; Resić, H.; Prnjavorac, B.; Roussinov, D.; Batinić, D.; Lemac, M.; Slavicek, J.; Seeman, T.; Vondrak, K.; Heaf, J. G.; Toots, U.; Finne, P.; Grönhagen-Riska, C.; Couchoud, C.; Lasalle, M.; Sahpazova, E.; Gersdorf, G.; Barth, C.; Scholz, C.; Tönshoff, B.; Ioannidis, G.; Kapogiannis, A.; Papachristou, F.; Reusz, G.; Túri, S.; Szabó, L.; Szabó, T.

2016-01-01

Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret

Tree compression with top trees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li; Landau, Gad M.

2013-01-01

We introduce a new compression scheme for labeled trees based on top trees [3]. Our compression scheme is the first to simultaneously take advantage of internal repeats in the tree (as opposed to the classical DAG compression that only exploits rooted subtree repeats) while also supporting fast...

Tree compression with top trees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li; Landau, Gad M.

2015-01-01

We introduce a new compression scheme for labeled trees based on top trees. Our compression scheme is the first to simultaneously take advantage of internal repeats in the tree (as opposed to the classical DAG compression that only exploits rooted subtree repeats) while also supporting fast...

The dynamics of strangling among forest trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, Kenichi W

2015-11-07

Strangler trees germinate and grow on other trees, eventually enveloping and potentially even girdling their hosts. This allows them to mitigate fitness costs otherwise incurred by germinating and competing with other trees on the forest floor, as well as minimize risks associated with host tree-fall. If stranglers can themselves host other strangler trees, they may not even seem to need non-stranglers to persist. Yet despite their high fitness potential, strangler trees neither dominate the communities in which they occur nor is the strategy particularly common outside of figs (genus Ficus). Here we analyze how dynamic interactions between strangling and non-strangling trees can shape the adaptive landscape for strangling mutants and mutant trees that have lost the ability to strangle. We find a threshold which strangler germination rates must exceed for selection to favor the evolution of strangling, regardless of how effectively hemiepiphytic stranglers may subsequently replace their hosts. This condition describes the magnitude of the phenotypic displacement in the ability to germinate on other trees necessary for invasion by a mutant tree that could potentially strangle its host following establishment as an epiphyte. We show how the relative abilities of strangling and non-strangling trees to occupy empty sites can govern whether strangling is an evolutionarily stable strategy, and obtain the conditions for strangler coexistence with non-stranglers. We then elucidate when the evolution of strangling can disrupt stable coexistence between commensal epiphytic ancestors and their non-strangling host trees. This allows us to highlight parallels between the invasion fitness of strangler trees arising from commensalist ancestors, and cases where strangling can arise in concert with the evolution of hemiepiphytism among free-standing ancestors. Finally, we discuss how our results can inform the evolutionary ecology of antagonistic interactions more generally

Parallel peak pruning for scalable SMP contour tree computation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carr, Hamish A. [Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom); Weber, Gunther H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Sewell, Christopher M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahrens, James P. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-03-09

As data sets grow to exascale, automated data analysis and visualisation are increasingly important, to intermediate human understanding and to reduce demands on disk storage via in situ analysis. Trends in architecture of high performance computing systems necessitate analysis algorithms to make effective use of combinations of massively multicore and distributed systems. One of the principal analytic tools is the contour tree, which analyses relationships between contours to identify features of more than local importance. Unfortunately, the predominant algorithms for computing the contour tree are explicitly serial, and founded on serial metaphors, which has limited the scalability of this form of analysis. While there is some work on distributed contour tree computation, and separately on hybrid GPU-CPU computation, there is no efficient algorithm with strong formal guarantees on performance allied with fast practical performance. Here in this paper, we report the first shared SMP algorithm for fully parallel contour tree computation, withfor-mal guarantees of O(lgnlgt) parallel steps and O(n lgn) work, and implementations with up to 10x parallel speed up in OpenMP and up to 50x speed up in NVIDIA Thrust.

Contaminant Gradients in Trees: Directional Tree Coring Reveals Boundaries of Soil and Soil-Gas Contamination with Potential Applications in Vapor Intrusion Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jordan L; Samaranayake, V A; Limmer, Matthew A; Schumacher, John G; Burken, Joel G

2017-12-19

Contaminated sites pose ecological and human-health risks through exposure to contaminated soil and groundwater. Whereas we can readily locate, monitor, and track contaminants in groundwater, it is harder to perform these tasks in the vadose zone. In this study, tree-core samples were collected at a Superfund site to determine if the sample-collection location around a particular tree could reveal the subsurface location, or direction, of soil and soil-gas contaminant plumes. Contaminant-centroid vectors were calculated from tree-core data to reveal contaminant distributions in directional tree samples at a higher resolution, and vectors were correlated with soil-gas characterization collected using conventional methods. Results clearly demonstrated that directional tree coring around tree trunks can indicate gradients in soil and soil-gas contaminant plumes, and the strength of the correlations were directly proportionate to the magnitude of tree-core concentration gradients (spearman's coefficient of -0.61 and -0.55 in soil and tree-core gradients, respectively). Linear regression indicates agreement between the concentration-centroid vectors is significantly affected by in planta and soil concentration gradients and when concentration centroids in soil are closer to trees. Given the existing link between soil-gas and vapor intrusion, this study also indicates that directional tree coring might be applicable in vapor intrusion assessment.

Instrumental neutron activation analysis of tree rings for dendrochemical studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaumloffel, J.C.; Filby, R.H.

1996-01-01

Instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) was employed to determine zinc, cadmium and potassium concentrations in the growth rings of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) trees growing along the shores of Lake Roosevelt in Washington State, U.S.A. where mineral processing activities have resulted in high burdens of zinc and cadmium in the lake sediments. The tree growing along the contaminated waterway display elevated concentrations of zinc in its growth rings relative to a tree growing along an uncontaminated tributary of Lake Roosevelt. Cadmium concentrations in the growth rings from both sites are similar from 1988 to 1993. Water quality data indicate an increased concentration of cadmium in the lake from 1984 to 1988. The increased concentrations of cadmium in the lake water were reflected in apparent increases in concentrations of cadmium in individual rings of the tree sampled at the contaminated site. This suggests that translocation of cadmium in the sapwood of heartwood-forming species does not occur in the short term, and thus may not be a limiting factor in using trees as environmental monitors for cadmium. In addition, five-year tree ring segments were analyzed and subsequently reanalyzed as individual single-year ring segments. The analytical data obtained for the pooled individual rings are essentially the same as for the five-year segments, demonstrating the utility of NAA for dendrochemical studies. (author). 24 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Charles Awoala

For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

Sleeping site selection by agile gibbons: the influence of tree stability, fruit availability and predation risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheyne, Susan M; Höing, Andrea; Rinear, John; Sheeran, Lori K

2012-01-01

Primates spend a significant proportion of their lives at sleeping sites: the selection of a secure and stable sleeping tree can be crucial for individual survival and fitness. We measured key characteristics of all tree species in which agile gibbons slept, including exposure of the tree crown, root system, height, species and presence of food. Gibbons most frequently slept in Dipterocarpaceae and Fabaceae trees and preferentially chose trees taller than average, slept above the mean canopy height and showed a preference for liana-free trees. These choices could reflect avoidance of competition with other frugivores, but we argue these choices reflect gibbons prioritizing avoidance of predation. The results highlight that gibbons are actively selecting and rejecting sleeping trees based on several characteristics. The importance of the presence of large trees for food is noted and provides insight into gibbon antipredatory behaviour. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Generalising tree traversals and tree transformations to DAGs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bahr, Patrick; Axelsson, Emil

2017-01-01

We present a recursion scheme based on attribute grammars that can be transparently applied to trees and acyclic graphs. Our recursion scheme allows the programmer to implement a tree traversal or a tree transformation and then apply it to compact graph representations of trees instead. The resul......We present a recursion scheme based on attribute grammars that can be transparently applied to trees and acyclic graphs. Our recursion scheme allows the programmer to implement a tree traversal or a tree transformation and then apply it to compact graph representations of trees instead...... as the complementing theory with a number of examples....

Generalized fault tree analysis combined with state analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caldarola, L.

1980-02-01

An analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurrence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (two or more than two states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of boolean algebra is required. This is called 'boolean algebra with restrictions on variables' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. It is also shown that the boolean algebra with restrictions on variables facilitates the task of formally combining fault tree analysis with state analysis. The computer program MUSTAFA 1 based on the above theory has been developed. It can analyse fault trees of system containing statistically independent as well as dependent components with two or more than two states. MUSTAFA 1 can handle coherent as well as non coherent boolean functions. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MB [de

Theoretical validation of potential habitability via analytical and boosted tree methods: An optimistic study on recently discovered exoplanets

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, S.; Basak, S.; Safonova, M.; Bora, K.; Agrawal, S.; Sarkar, P.; Murthy, J.

2018-04-01

Seven Earth-sized planets, known as the TRAPPIST-1 system, was discovered with great fanfare in the last week of February 2017. Three of these planets are in the habitable zone of their star, making them potentially habitable planets (PHPs) a mere 40 light years away. The discovery of the closest potentially habitable planet to us just a year before - Proxima b and a realization that Earth-type planets in circumstellar habitable zones are a common occurrence provides the impetus to the existing pursuit for life outside the Solar System. The search for life has two goals essentially: looking for planets with Earth-like conditions (Earth similarity) and looking for the possibility of life in some form (habitability). An index was recently developed, the Cobb-Douglas Habitability Score (CDHS), based on Cobb-Douglas habitability production function (CD-HPF), which computes the habitability score by using measured and estimated planetary parameters. As an initial set, radius, density, escape velocity and surface temperature of a planet were used. The proposed metric, with exponents accounting for metric elasticity, is endowed with analytical properties that ensure global optima and can be scaled to accommodate a finite number of input parameters. We show here that the model is elastic, and the conditions on elasticity to ensure global maxima can scale as the number of predictor parameters increase. K-NN (K-Nearest Neighbor) classification algorithm, embellished with probabilistic herding and thresholding restriction, utilizes CDHS scores and labels exoplanets into appropriate classes via feature-learning methods yielding granular clusters of habitability. The algorithm works on top of a decision-theoretical model using the power of convex optimization and machine learning. The goal is to characterize the recently discovered exoplanets into an "Earth League" and several other classes based on their CDHS values. A second approach, based on a novel feature-learning and

Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

2016-12-01

Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

The Problem of Predecessors on Spanning Trees

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V. S. Poghosyan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We consider the equiprobable distribution of spanning trees on the square lattice. All bonds of each tree can be oriented uniquely with respect to an arbitrary chosen site called the root. The problem of predecessors is to find the probability that a path along the oriented bonds passes sequentially fixed sites i and j. The conformal field theory for the Potts model predicts the fractal dimension of the path to be 5/4. Using this result, we show that the probability in the predecessors problem for two sites separated by large distance r decreases as P(r ∼ r −3/4. If sites i and j are nearest neighbors on the square lattice, the probability P(1 = 5/16 can be found from the analytical theory developed for the sandpile model. The known equivalence between the loop erased random walk (LERW and the directed path on the spanning tree states that P(1 is the probability for the LERW started at i to reach the neighboring site j. By analogy with the self-avoiding walk, P(1 can be called the return probability. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the theoretical predictions.

Empirical relationships between tree fall and landscape-level amounts of logging and fire.

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Lindenmayer, David B; Blanchard, Wade; Blair, David; McBurney, Lachlan; Stein, John; Banks, Sam C

2018-01-01

Large old trees are critically important keystone structures in forest ecosystems globally. Populations of these trees are also in rapid decline in many forest ecosystems, making it important to quantify the factors that influence their dynamics at different spatial scales. Large old trees often occur in forest landscapes also subject to fire and logging. However, the effects on the risk of collapse of large old trees of the amount of logging and fire in the surrounding landscape are not well understood. Using an 18-year study in the Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, we quantify relationships between the probability of collapse of large old hollow-bearing trees at a site and the amount of logging and the amount of fire in the surrounding landscape. We found the probability of collapse increased with an increasing amount of logged forest in the surrounding landscape. It also increased with a greater amount of burned area in the surrounding landscape, particularly for trees in highly advanced stages of decay. The most likely explanation for elevated tree fall with an increasing amount of logged or burned areas in the surrounding landscape is change in wind movement patterns associated with cutblocks or burned areas. Previous studies show that large old hollow-bearing trees are already at high risk of collapse in our study area. New analyses presented here indicate that additional logging operations in the surrounding landscape will further elevate that risk. Current logging prescriptions require the protection of large old hollow-bearing trees on cutblocks. We suggest that efforts to reduce the probability of collapse of large old hollow-bearing trees on unlogged sites will demand careful landscape planning to limit the amount of timber harvesting in the surrounding landscape.

Prospective identification of adolescent suicide ideation using classification tree analysis: Models for community-based screening.

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Hill, Ryan M; Oosterhoff, Benjamin; Kaplow, Julie B

2017-07-01

Although a large number of risk markers for suicide ideation have been identified, little guidance has been provided to prospectively identify adolescents at risk for suicide ideation within community settings. The current study addressed this gap in the literature by utilizing classification tree analysis (CTA) to provide a decision-making model for screening adolescents at risk for suicide ideation. Participants were N = 4,799 youth (Mage = 16.15 years, SD = 1.63) who completed both Waves 1 and 2 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. CTA was used to generate a series of decision rules for identifying adolescents at risk for reporting suicide ideation at Wave 2. Findings revealed 3 distinct solutions with varying sensitivity and specificity for identifying adolescents who reported suicide ideation. Sensitivity of the classification trees ranged from 44.6% to 77.6%. The tree with greatest specificity and lowest sensitivity was based on a history of suicide ideation. The tree with moderate sensitivity and high specificity was based on depressive symptoms, suicide attempts or suicide among family and friends, and social support. The most sensitive but least specific tree utilized these factors and gender, ethnicity, hours of sleep, school-related factors, and future orientation. These classification trees offer community organizations options for instituting large-scale screenings for suicide ideation risk depending on the available resources and modality of services to be provided. This study provides a theoretically and empirically driven model for prospectively identifying adolescents at risk for suicide ideation and has implications for preventive interventions among at-risk youth. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Surface tree languages and parallel derivation trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engelfriet, Joost

1976-01-01

The surface tree languages obtained by top-down finite state transformation of monadic trees are exactly the frontier-preserving homomorphic images of sets of derivation trees of ETOL systems. The corresponding class of tree transformation languages is therefore equal to the class of ETOL languages.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Fault Trees as Tools in Improving the Delineation of Wellhead Protection Areas: An Initial Discussion

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Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.

2010-12-01

Delineation of a wellhead protection area (WHPA) is a critical component of managing / protecting the aquifer(s) supplying potable water to a public water-supply well. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for assessing WHPAs in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health risk within the receiving population are more limited. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) addresses this latter challenge by providing a structure whereby four key WHPA issues may be addressed: (i) uncertainty in land-use practices and chemical release, (ii) uncertainty in groundwater flow, (iii) variability in natural attenuation properties (and/or remediation) of the contaminants, and (iv) estimated health risk from contaminant arrival at a well. The potential utility of PRA-FT in this application is considered through a simplified case study involving management decisions related both to regional land use planning and local land-use zoning regulation. An application-specific fault tree is constructed to visualize and identify the events required for health risk failure at the well and a Monte Carlo approach is used to create multiple realizations of groundwater flow and chemical transport to a well in a model of a simple, unconfined aquifer. Model parameters allowed to vary during this simplified case study include hydraulic conductivity, probability of a chemical spill (related to land use variation in space), and natural attenuation through variation in rate of decay of the contaminant. Numerical results are interpreted in association with multiple land-use management scenarios as well as multiple cancer risk assumptions regarding the contaminant arriving at the well. This case study shows significant variability of health risk at the well, however general trends were

Fungal diseases of tree stands under urbanized conditions of Moscow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnova Oksana G.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Phytosanitary and ecological estimation of tree-stands has been con­ducted at the Forest Experimental Station of Moscow Agricultural Academy and parks of Northeast of Moscow in 2007-2011. Fomes fomentarius was proved to be a very serious pathogen of trees under conditions of Moscow, Piptoporus betulinus, Phellinus igniarius, and Fomitopsis pinicola also occurred and caused damage to trees. This rather bad phytosanitary situation depends on alarming ecological situation in Moscow. At the Forest Experimental Station of Moscow Agricultural Academy a number and cover of lichens decreased. In general, all trees in Moscow are in dynamic equilibrium with the urbanized environment. In connection with this, the following classification of tree-stands was proposed for the urbanized environment: 1 - healthy trees, 2 - affected trees which can be managed, 3 - dry woods, 3a - very diseased. Many tree-stands in investigated regions of Moscow are found to belong to the groups 2 and 3c. All tree-stands must be carefully monitored and managed in order to provide a well-timed decision on the support system for preservation of trees as ‘lungs of city’ and avoid unpredictable tree falling which put people and traffic at risk.

TreePics: visualizing trees with pictures

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Nicolas Puillandre

2017-09-01

Full Text Available While many programs are available to edit phylogenetic trees, associating pictures with branch tips in an efficient and automatic way is not an available option. Here, we present TreePics, a standalone software that uses a web browser to visualize phylogenetic trees in Newick format and that associates pictures (typically, pictures of the voucher specimens to the tip of each branch. Pictures are visualized as thumbnails and can be enlarged by a mouse rollover. Further, several pictures can be selected and displayed in a separate window for visual comparison. TreePics works either online or in a full standalone version, where it can display trees with several thousands of pictures (depending on the memory available. We argue that TreePics can be particularly useful in a preliminary stage of research, such as to quickly detect conflicts between a DNA-based phylogenetic tree and morphological variation, that may be due to contamination that needs to be removed prior to final analyses, or the presence of species complexes.

Predicted range expansion of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) in forestlands of the southern United States

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Hsiao-Hsuan Wang; William Grant; Todd Swannack; Jianbang Gan; William Rogers; Tomasz Koralewski; James Miller; John W. Taylor Jr.

2011-01-01

We present an integrated approach for predicting future range expansion of an invasive species (Chinese tallow tree) that incorporates statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework.

Advanced business analytics

CERN Document Server

Lev, Benjamin

2015-01-01

The book describes advanced business analytics and shows how to apply them to many different professional areas of engineering and management. Each chapter of the book is contributed by a different author and covers a different area of business analytics. The book connects the analytic principles with business practice and provides an interface between the main disciplines of engineering/technology and the organizational, administrative and planning abilities of management. It also refers to other disciplines such as economy, finance, marketing, behavioral economics and risk analysis. This book is of special interest to engineers, economists and researchers who are developing new advances in engineering management but also to practitioners working on this subject.

Dynamic asset trees in the US stock market: Structure variation and market phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Wei-Qiang; Yao, Shuang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yuan, Ying

2017-01-01

In this work, employing a moving window to scan through every stock price time series over a period from 2 January 1986 to 20 October 2015, we use cross-correlations to measure the interdependence between stock prices, and we construct a corresponding minimal spanning tree for 170 U.S. stocks in every given window. We show how the asset tree evolves over time and describe the dynamics of its normalized length, centrality measures, vertex degree and vertex strength distributions, and single- and multiple-step edge survival ratios. We find that the normalized tree length shows a tendency to decrease over the 30 years. The power-law of vertex degree or vertex strength distribution does not hold for all trees. The survival ratio analysis reveals an increased stability of the dependence structure of the stock market as time elapses. We then examine the relationship between tree structure variation and market phenomena, such as average, volatility and tail risk of stock (market) return. Our main observation is that the normalized tree length has a positive relationship with the level of stock market average return, and it responds negatively to the market return volatility and tail risk. Furthermore, the majority of stocks have their vertex degrees significantly positively correlated to their average return, and significantly negatively correlated to their return volatility and tail risk.

What Is Trust? Ethics and Risk Governance in Precision Medicine and Predictive Analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Adjekum, Afua; Ienca, Marcello; Vayena, Effy

2017-12-01

Trust is a ubiquitous term used in emerging technology (e.g., Big Data, precision medicine), innovation policy, and governance literatures in particular. But what exactly is trust? Even though trust is considered a critical requirement for the successful deployment of precision medicine initiatives, nonetheless, there is a need for further conceptualization with regard to what qualifies as trust, and what factors might establish and sustain trust in precision medicine, predictive analytics, and large-scale biology. These new fields of 21st century medicine and health often deal with the "futures" and hence, trust gains a temporal and ever-present quality for both the present and the futures anticipated by new technologies and predictive analytics. We address these conceptual gaps that have important practical implications in the way we govern risk and unknowns associated with emerging technologies in biology, medicine, and health broadly. We provide an in-depth conceptual analysis and an operative definition of trust dynamics in precision medicine. In addition, we identify three main types of "trust facilitators": (1) technical, (2) ethical, and (3) institutional. This three-dimensional framework on trust is necessary to building and maintaining trust in 21st century knowledge-based innovations that governments and publics invest for progressive societal change, development, and sustainable prosperity. Importantly, we analyze, identify, and deliberate on the dimensions of precision medicine and large-scale biology that have carved out trust as a pertinent tool to its success. Moving forward, we propose a "points to consider" on how best to enhance trust in precision medicine and predictive analytics.

Zoning Of Apple Trees In Province Of Khorasan Razavi Iran

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Mokhtar Karami

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of prone areas for apple cultivation in Razavi Khorasan province. Therefore in this study criteria and sub criteria were considered to determine suitable areas for growing apple trees and due to the importance of data integration Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP was selected to determine the weight of layers. The software ArcGIS version 10.2.2 was used to analyze the spatial and overlapping layers after data analysis in terms of growing apple trees Razavi Khorasan province was divided into four levels very good good average and bad. The results showed that suitable areas for growing apple trees in the studied area are located in the south east northeast and center of the province including Sarakhs Neyshaboor Gonabad and Kashmar stations with an area of over 4364789.32 hectares which is about 48.34 of the total area of the province.

ColorTree: a batch customization tool for phylogenic trees.

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Chen, Wei-Hua; Lercher, Martin J

2009-07-31

Genome sequencing projects and comparative genomics studies typically aim to trace the evolutionary history of large gene sets, often requiring human inspection of hundreds of phylogenetic trees. If trees are checked for compatibility with an explicit null hypothesis (e.g., the monophyly of certain groups), this daunting task is greatly facilitated by an appropriate coloring scheme. In this note, we introduce ColorTree, a simple yet powerful batch customization tool for phylogenic trees. Based on pattern matching rules, ColorTree applies a set of customizations to an input tree file, e.g., coloring labels or branches. The customized trees are saved to an output file, which can then be viewed and further edited by Dendroscope (a freely available tree viewer). ColorTree runs on any Perl installation as a stand-alone command line tool, and its application can thus be easily automated. This way, hundreds of phylogenic trees can be customized for easy visual inspection in a matter of minutes. ColorTree allows efficient and flexible visual customization of large tree sets through the application of a user-supplied configuration file to multiple tree files.

All rights reserved and www.bioline.org.br/ja Assessment of Tree ...

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PROF HORSFALL

recent times, thereby posing appreciable risk of local extinction to some ... Fig 1: Map showing study area; fresh and mangrove swamp of. University of Lagos .... African oil palm. 43. 10. 29. ... Brazilian rose tree, blue trumpet tree. 52. 13. 41.

Assessing and monitoring the risk of desertification in Dobrogea, Romania, using Landsat data and decision tree classifier.

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Vorovencii, Iosif

2015-04-01

The risk of the desertification of a part of Romania is increasingly evident, constituting a serious problem for the environment and the society. This article attempts to assess and monitor the risk of desertification in Dobrogea using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images acquired in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2011. In order to assess the risk of desertification, we used as indicators the Modified Soil Adjustment Vegetation Index 1 (MSAVI1), the Moving Standard Deviation Index (MSDI) and the albedo, indices relating to the vegetation conditions, the landscape pattern and micrometeorology. The decision tree classifier (DTC) was also used on the basis of pre-established rules, and maps displaying six grades of desertification risk were obtained: non, very low, low, medium, high and severe. Land surface temperature (LST) was also used for the analysis. The results indicate that, according to pre-established rules for the period of 1987-2011, there are two grades of desertification risk that have an ascending trend in Dobrogea, namely very low and medium desertification. An investigation into the causes of the desertification risk revealed that high temperature is the main factor, accompanied by the destruction of forest shelterbelts and of the irrigation system and, to a smaller extent, by the fragmentation of agricultural land and the deforestation in the study area.

Random Forest as a Predictive Analytics Alternative to Regression in Institutional Research

Science.gov (United States)

He, Lingjun; Levine, Richard A.; Fan, Juanjuan; Beemer, Joshua; Stronach, Jeanne

2018-01-01

In institutional research, modern data mining approaches are seldom considered to address predictive analytics problems. The goal of this paper is to highlight the advantages of tree-based machine learning algorithms over classic (logistic) regression methods for data-informed decision making in higher education problems, and stress the success of…

Development of safety function assessment trees for pressurized heavy water reactor LP/SD operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Hui Chang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Kim, Ki Yong; Jee, Moon Hak; Sung, Chang Kyoung

2003-01-01

The objective of Configuration Risk Management Program(CRMP) is to maintain the safety level by assuring the defense-in-depth of nuclear power plant while the configurations are changed during plant operations, especially for the LP/SD. Such a safety purpose can be achieved by establishing the risk monitoring programs with both quantitative and qualitative features. Generally, the quantitative risk evaluation models, i.e., PRA models are used for the risk evaluation during full power operation, and the qualitative risk evaluation models such as safety function assessment trees are used. Through this study, safety function assessment trees were developed

Representing cognitive activities and errors in HRA trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D.I.

1992-01-01

A graphic representation method is presented herein for adapting an existing technology--human reliability analysis (HRA) event trees, used to support event sequence logic structures and calculations--to include a representation of the underlying cognitive activity and corresponding errors associated with human performance. The analyst is presented with three potential means of representing human activity: the NUREG/CR-1278 HRA event tree approach; the skill-, rule- and knowledge-based paradigm; and the slips, lapses, and mistakes paradigm. The above approaches for representing human activity are integrated in order to produce an enriched HRA event tree -- the cognitive event tree system (COGENT)-- which, in turn, can be used to increase the analyst's understanding of the basic behavioral mechanisms underlying human error and the representation of that error in probabilistic risk assessment. Issues pertaining to the implementation of COGENT are also discussed

Development of an analytical method to assess the occupational health risk of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies using LC-HRMS.

Science.gov (United States)

Reinders, Lars M H; Klassen, Martin D; Jaeger, Martin; Teutenberg, Thorsten; Tuerk, Jochen

2018-04-01

Monoclonal antibodies are a group of commonly used therapeutics, whose occupational health risk is still discussed controversially. The long-term low-dose exposure side effects are insufficiently evaluated; hence, discussions are often based on a theoretical level or extrapolating side effects from therapeutic dosages. While some research groups recommend applying the precautionary principle for monoclonal antibodies, others consider the exposure risk too low for measures taken towards occupational health and safety. However, both groups agree that airborne monoclonal antibodies have the biggest risk potential. Therefore, we developed a peptide-based analytical method for occupational exposure monitoring of airborne monoclonal antibodies. The method will allow collecting data about the occupational exposure to monoclonal antibodies. Thus, the mean daily intake for personnel in pharmacies and the pharmaceutical industry can be determined for the first time and will help to substantiate the risk assessment by relevant data. The introduced monitoring method includes air sampling, sample preparation and detection by liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry of individual monoclonal antibodies as well as sum parameter. For method development and validation, a chimeric (rituximab), humanised (trastuzumab) and a fully humanised (daratumumab) monoclonal antibody are used. A limit of detection between 1 μg per sample for daratumumab and 25 μg per sample for the collective peptide is achieved. Graphical abstract Demonstration of the analytical workflow, from the release of monoclonal antibodies to the detection as single substances as well as sum parameter.

Decision Tree Identified Risk Groups with High Suicidal Ideation in South Korea: A Population-Based Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Ji Young; Kim, Jong Hyen; Hyoung, Hee Kyoung

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify risk groups with high suicidal ideation among South Korean adults. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted using secondary data from the 2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). A total of 5,963 adults aged 19 years and older who participated in the 2011 KNHANES served as participants. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its related factors, including physical, psychological, health behavioral, and sociodemographic characteristics, were examined. Descriptive statistics and a decision tree were used for data analysis. Nine groups with high suicidal ideation were identified. The coexistence of depression and high levels of stress increased the prevalence of suicidal ideation. The highest risk group was widowed or divorced adults with depression and high levels of stress, and 82.5% of these participants had suicidal ideation (the prevalence rate of this group was 5.7 times higher than the mean suicidal ideation prevalence rate in this study). Public health nurses and community mental health professionals should recognize risk groups with high suicidal ideation, and target these groups when implementing preventive interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tree Colors: Color Schemes for Tree-Structured Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Tennekes, Martijn; de Jonge, Edwin

2014-12-01

We present a method to map tree structures to colors from the Hue-Chroma-Luminance color model, which is known for its well balanced perceptual properties. The Tree Colors method can be tuned with several parameters, whose effect on the resulting color schemes is discussed in detail. We provide a free and open source implementation with sensible parameter defaults. Categorical data are very common in statistical graphics, and often these categories form a classification tree. We evaluate applying Tree Colors to tree structured data with a survey on a large group of users from a national statistical institute. Our user study suggests that Tree Colors are useful, not only for improving node-link diagrams, but also for unveiling tree structure in non-hierarchical visualizations.

TreePOD: Sensitivity-Aware Selection of Pareto-Optimal Decision Trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Muhlbacher, Thomas; Linhardt, Lorenz; Moller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald

2018-01-01

Balancing accuracy gains with other objectives such as interpretability is a key challenge when building decision trees. However, this process is difficult to automate because it involves know-how about the domain as well as the purpose of the model. This paper presents TreePOD, a new approach for sensitivity-aware model selection along trade-offs. TreePOD is based on exploring a large set of candidate trees generated by sampling the parameters of tree construction algorithms. Based on this set, visualizations of quantitative and qualitative tree aspects provide a comprehensive overview of possible tree characteristics. Along trade-offs between two objectives, TreePOD provides efficient selection guidance by focusing on Pareto-optimal tree candidates. TreePOD also conveys the sensitivities of tree characteristics on variations of selected parameters by extending the tree generation process with a full-factorial sampling. We demonstrate how TreePOD supports a variety of tasks involved in decision tree selection and describe its integration in a holistic workflow for building and selecting decision trees. For evaluation, we illustrate a case study for predicting critical power grid states, and we report qualitative feedback from domain experts in the energy sector. This feedback suggests that TreePOD enables users with and without statistical background a confident and efficient identification of suitable decision trees.

Two Trees: Migrating Fault Trees to Decision Trees for Real Time Fault Detection on International Space Station

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Charles; Alena, Richard L.; Robinson, Peter

2004-01-01

We started from ISS fault trees example to migrate to decision trees, presented a method to convert fault trees to decision trees. The method shows that the visualizations of root cause of fault are easier and the tree manipulating becomes more programmatic via available decision tree programs. The visualization of decision trees for the diagnostic shows a format of straight forward and easy understands. For ISS real time fault diagnostic, the status of the systems could be shown by mining the signals through the trees and see where it stops at. The other advantage to use decision trees is that the trees can learn the fault patterns and predict the future fault from the historic data. The learning is not only on the static data sets but also can be online, through accumulating the real time data sets, the decision trees can gain and store faults patterns in the trees and recognize them when they come.

Decision tree based knowledge acquisition and failure diagnosis using a PWR loop vibration model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauernfeind, V.; Ding, Y.

1993-01-01

An analytical vibration model of the primary system of a 1300 MW PWR was used for simulating mechanical faults. Deviations in the calculated power density spectra and coherence functions are determined and classified. The decision tree technique is then used for a personal computer supported knowledge presentation and for optimizing the logical relationships between the simulated faults and the observed symptoms. The optimized decision tree forms the knowledge base and can be used to diagnose known cases as well as to include new data into the knowledge base if new faults occur. (author)

Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

2011-09-10

In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generic event trees and the treatment of dependencies and non-proceduralized actions in a low power and shutdown Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forester, J.; Yakle, J.; Whitehead, D.; Darby, J.

1993-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories was tasked by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of a boiling water reactor (BWR) during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) conditions. The plant chosen for the study was Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (GGNS), a BWR 6. In performing the analysis, it was found that in comparison with full-power PRAs, the low decay heat levels present during LP ampersand S conditions result in a relatively large number of ways by which cooling can be provided to the core. In addition, because of the less stringent requirements imposed on system configurations possible is large and the availability of plant systems is more difficult to specify. These aspects of the LP ampersand S environment led to the development and use of ''generic'' event trees in performing the analysis. The use of ''generic'' event trees, in turn, had a significant impact on the nature of the human reliability analysis (HRA) that was performed. This paper describes the development of the event trees for the LP ampersand S PRA and important aspects of the resulting HRA

The future of large old trees in urban landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Roux, Darren S; Ikin, Karen; Lindenmayer, David B; Manning, Adrian D; Gibbons, Philip

2014-01-01

Large old trees are disproportionate providers of structural elements (e.g. hollows, coarse woody debris), which are crucial habitat resources for many species. The decline of large old trees in modified landscapes is of global conservation concern. Once large old trees are removed, they are difficult to replace in the short term due to typically prolonged time periods needed for trees to mature (i.e. centuries). Few studies have investigated the decline of large old trees in urban landscapes. Using a simulation model, we predicted the future availability of native hollow-bearing trees (a surrogate for large old trees) in an expanding city in southeastern Australia. In urban greenspace, we predicted that the number of hollow-bearing trees is likely to decline by 87% over 300 years under existing management practices. Under a worst case scenario, hollow-bearing trees may be completely lost within 115 years. Conversely, we predicted that the number of hollow-bearing trees will likely remain stable in semi-natural nature reserves. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of hollow-bearing trees perpetuated in urban greenspace over the long term is most sensitive to the: (1) maximum standing life of trees; (2) number of regenerating seedlings ha(-1); and (3) rate of hollow formation. We tested the efficacy of alternative urban management strategies and found that the only way to arrest the decline of large old trees requires a collective management strategy that ensures: (1) trees remain standing for at least 40% longer than currently tolerated lifespans; (2) the number of seedlings established is increased by at least 60%; and (3) the formation of habitat structures provided by large old trees is accelerated by at least 30% (e.g. artificial structures) to compensate for short term deficits in habitat resources. Immediate implementation of these recommendations is needed to avert long term risk to urban biodiversity.

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Franco, Augusto C; Hoffmann, William A

2016-03-01

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO2 will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought-fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire-driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2-million km(2) Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait-based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate-carbon-fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

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Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

2015-03-01

Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Henrik; Moura, Catarina; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ruehr, Nadine; Salmon, Yann; Allen, Craig D.; Arndt, Stefan K.; Breshears, David D.; Davi, Hendrik; Galbraith, David; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Wunder, Jan; Adams, Henry D.; Bloemen, Jasper; Cailleret, Maxime; Cobb, Richard; Gessler, Arthur; Grams, Thorsten E. E.; Jansen, Steven; Kautz, Markus; Lloret, Francisco; O’Brien, Michael

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Analytic representations of Yang–Mills amplitudes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjerrum-Bohr, N.E.J. [Niels Bohr International Academy and Discovery Center, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Bourjaily, Jacob L., E-mail: bourjaily@nbi.ku.dk [Niels Bohr International Academy and Discovery Center, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Damgaard, Poul H. [Niels Bohr International Academy and Discovery Center, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Feng, Bo [Zhejiang Institute of Modern Physics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou City, 310027 (China)

2016-12-15

Scattering amplitudes in Yang–Mills theory can be represented in the formalism of Cachazo, He and Yuan (CHY) as integrals over an auxiliary projective space—fully localized on the support of the scattering equations. Because solving the scattering equations is difficult and summing over the solutions algebraically complex, a method of directly integrating the terms that appear in this representation has long been sought. We solve this important open problem by first rewriting the terms in a manifestly Möbius-invariant form and then using monodromy relations (inspired by analogy to string theory) to decompose terms into those for which combinatorial rules of integration are known. The result is the foundations of a systematic procedure to obtain analytic, covariant forms of Yang–Mills tree-amplitudes for any number of external legs and in any number of dimensions. As examples, we provide compact analytic expressions for amplitudes involving up to six gluons of arbitrary helicities.

Fault tree analysis with multistate components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caldarola, L.

1979-02-01

A general analytical theory has been developed which allows one to calculate the occurence probability of the top event of a fault tree with multistate (more than states) components. It is shown that, in order to correctly describe a system with multistate components, a special type of Boolean algebra is required. This is called 'Boolean algebra with restrictions on varibales' and its basic rules are the same as those of the traditional Boolean algebra with some additional restrictions on the variables. These restrictions are extensively discussed in the paper. Important features of the method are the identification of the complete base and of the smallest irredundant base of a Boolean function which does not necessarily need to be coherent. It is shown that the identification of the complete base of a Boolean function requires the application of some algorithms which are not used in today's computer programmes for fault tree analysis. The problem of statistical dependence among primary components is discussed. The paper includes a small demonstrative example to illustrate the method. The example includes also statistical dependent components. (orig.) [de

LOSP-initiated event tree analysis for BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio; Kondo, Masaaki; Uno, Kiyotaka; Chigusa, Takeshi; Harami, Taikan

1989-03-01

As a preliminary study of 'Japanese Model Plant PSA', a LOSP (loss of off-site power)-initiated Event Tree Analysis for a Japanese typical BWR was carried out solely based on the open documents such as 'Safety Analysis Report'. The objectives of this analysis are as follows; - to delineate core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP, - to evaluate the importance of core-melt accident sequences in terms of occurrence frequency, and - to develop a foundation of plant information and analytical procedures for efficiently performing further 'Japanese Model Plant PSA'. This report describes the procedure and results of the LOSP-initiated Event Tree Analysis. In this analysis, two types of event trees, Functional Event Tree and Systemic Event Tree, were developed to delineate core-melt accident sequences and to quantify their frequencies. Front-line System Event Tree was prepared as well to provide core-melt sequence delineation for accident progression analysis of Level 2 PSA which will be followed in a future. Applying U.S. operational experience data such as component failure rates and a LOSP frequency, we obtained the following results; - The total frequency of core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP is estimated at 5 x 10 -4 per reactor-year. - The dominant sequences are 'Loss of Decay Heat Removal' and 'Loss of Emergency Electric Power Supply', which account for more than 90% of the total core-melt frequency. In this analysis, a higher value of 0.13/R·Y was used for the LOSP frequency than experiences in Japan and any recovery action was not considered. In fact, however, there has been no experience of LOSP event in Japanese nuclear power plants so far and it is also expected that offsite power and/or PCS would be recovered before core melt. Considering Japanese operating experience and recovery factors will reduce the total core-melt frequency to less than 10 -6 per reactor-year. (J.P.N.)

Future analytical provision - Relocation of Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newell, B.

2015-01-01

Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services provide an essential view on the environmental, safety, process and high hazard risk reduction performances by analysis of samples. It is the largest and most complex analytical services laboratory in Europe, with 150 laboratories (55 operational) and 350 staff (including 180 analysts). Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services Main Laboratory is in need of replacement. This is due to the age of the facility and changes to work streams. This relocation is an opportunity to -) design and commission bespoke MA (Medium-Active) cells, -) modify HA (High-Active) cell design to facilitate an in-cell laboratory, -) develop non-destructive techniques, -) open light building for better worker morale. The option chosen was to move the activities to the NNL Central laboratory (NNLCL) that is based at Sellafield and is the UK's flagship nuclear research and development facility. This poster gives a time schedule

Tree Nut Allergies

Science.gov (United States)

... Blog Vision Awards Common Allergens Tree Nut Allergy Tree Nut Allergy Learn about tree nut allergy, how ... a Tree Nut Label card . Allergic Reactions to Tree Nuts Tree nuts can cause a severe and ...

Cophenetic metrics for phylogenetic trees, after Sokal and Rohlf.

Science.gov (United States)

Cardona, Gabriel; Mir, Arnau; Rosselló, Francesc; Rotger, Lucía; Sánchez, David

2013-01-16

Phylogenetic tree comparison metrics are an important tool in the study of evolution, and hence the definition of such metrics is an interesting problem in phylogenetics. In a paper in Taxon fifty years ago, Sokal and Rohlf proposed to measure quantitatively the difference between a pair of phylogenetic trees by first encoding them by means of their half-matrices of cophenetic values, and then comparing these matrices. This idea has been used several times since then to define dissimilarity measures between phylogenetic trees but, to our knowledge, no proper metric on weighted phylogenetic trees with nested taxa based on this idea has been formally defined and studied yet. Actually, the cophenetic values of pairs of different taxa alone are not enough to single out phylogenetic trees with weighted arcs or nested taxa. For every (rooted) phylogenetic tree T, let its cophenetic vectorφ(T) consist of all pairs of cophenetic values between pairs of taxa in T and all depths of taxa in T. It turns out that these cophenetic vectors single out weighted phylogenetic trees with nested taxa. We then define a family of cophenetic metrics dφ,p by comparing these cophenetic vectors by means of Lp norms, and we study, either analytically or numerically, some of their basic properties: neighbors, diameter, distribution, and their rank correlation with each other and with other metrics. The cophenetic metrics can be safely used on weighted phylogenetic trees with nested taxa and no restriction on degrees, and they can be computed in O(n2) time, where n stands for the number of taxa. The metrics dφ,1 and dφ,2 have positive skewed distributions, and they show a low rank correlation with the Robinson-Foulds metric and the nodal metrics, and a very high correlation with each other and with the splitted nodal metrics. The diameter of dφ,p, for p⩾1 , is in O(n(p+2)/p), and thus for low p they are more discriminative, having a wider range of values.

Fault tree technique: advances in probabilistic and logical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarotti, C.A.; Amendola, A.; Contini, S.; Squellati, G.

1982-01-01

Fault tree reliability analysis is used for assessing the risk associated to systems of increasing complexity (phased mission systems, systems with multistate components, systems with non-monotonic structure functions). Much care must be taken to make sure that fault tree technique is not used beyond its correct validity range. To this end a critical review of mathematical foundations of reliability fault tree analysis is carried out. Limitations are enlightened and potential solutions to open problems are suggested. Moreover an overview is given on the most recent developments in the implementation of an integrated software (SALP-MP, SALP-NOT, SALP-CAFT Codes) for the analysis of a wide class of systems

Big trees, old trees, and growth factor tables

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin T. Smith

2018-01-01

The potential for a tree to reach a great size and to live a long life frequently captures the public's imagination. Sometimes the desire to know the age of an impressively large tree is simple curiosity. For others, the date-of-tree establishment can make a big diff erence for management, particularly for trees at historic sites or those mentioned in property...

A Suffix Tree Or Not a Suffix Tree?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Starikovskaya, Tatiana; Vildhøj, Hjalte Wedel

2015-01-01

In this paper we study the structure of suffix trees. Given an unlabeled tree r on n nodes and suffix links of its internal nodes, we ask the question “Is r a suffix tree?”, i.e., is there a string S whose suffix tree has the same topological structure as r? We place no restrictions on S, in part...

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

2017-11-01

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occurs, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

2017-11-01

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph Heesen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

2013-01-01

Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2008-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to

History of Tree Growth Declines Recorded in Old Trees at Two Sacred Sites in Northern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yan; Zhang, Qi-Bin

2017-01-01

Old forests are an important component in sacred sites, yet they are at risk of growth decline from ongoing global warming and increased human activities. Growth decline, characterized by chronic loss of tree vigor, is not a recent phenomenon. Knowledge of past occurrence of declines is useful for preparing conservation plans because it helps understand if present day forests are outside the natural range of variation in tree health. We report a dendroecological study of growth decline events in the past two centuries at two sacred sites, Hengshan and Wutaishan, in Shanxi province of northern China. Tree rings collected at both sites show distinct periods of declining growth evident as narrow rings. These occurred in the 1830s in both sites, in the 1920s in Wutaishan and in the 2000s in Hengshan. By comparing the pattern of grow declines at the two sites, we hypothesize that resistance of tree growth to external disturbances is forest size dependent, and increased human activity might be a factor additional to climatic droughts in causing the recent strong growth decline at Hengshan Park. Despite these past declines, the forests at both sites have high resilience to disturbances as evidenced by the ability of trees to recover their growth rates to levels comparable to the pre-decline period. Managers should consider reducing fragmentation and restoring natural habitat of old forests, especially in areas on dry sites.

History of Tree Growth Declines Recorded in Old Trees at Two Sacred Sites in Northern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Li

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Old forests are an important component in sacred sites, yet they are at risk of growth decline from ongoing global warming and increased human activities. Growth decline, characterized by chronic loss of tree vigor, is not a recent phenomenon. Knowledge of past occurrence of declines is useful for preparing conservation plans because it helps understand if present day forests are outside the natural range of variation in tree health. We report a dendroecological study of growth decline events in the past two centuries at two sacred sites, Hengshan and Wutaishan, in Shanxi province of northern China. Tree rings collected at both sites show distinct periods of declining growth evident as narrow rings. These occurred in the 1830s in both sites, in the 1920s in Wutaishan and in the 2000s in Hengshan. By comparing the pattern of grow declines at the two sites, we hypothesize that resistance of tree growth to external disturbances is forest size dependent, and increased human activity might be a factor additional to climatic droughts in causing the recent strong growth decline at Hengshan Park. Despite these past declines, the forests at both sites have high resilience to disturbances as evidenced by the ability of trees to recover their growth rates to levels comparable to the pre-decline period. Managers should consider reducing fragmentation and restoring natural habitat of old forests, especially in areas on dry sites.

Foundations of predictive analytics

CERN Document Server

Wu, James

2012-01-01

Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eilmann, B.; Rigling, A.

2012-01-01

Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree

Does leaf chemistry differentially affect breakdown in tropical vs temperate streams? Importance of standardized analytical techniques to measure leaf chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Marcelo Ard& #243; n; Catherine M. Pringle; Susan L. Eggert

2009-01-01

Comparisons of the effects of leaf litter chemistry on leaf breakdown rates in tropical vs temperate streams are hindered by incompatibility among studies and across sites of analytical methods used to measure leaf chemistry. We used standardized analytical techniques to measure chemistry and breakdown rate of leaves from common riparian tree species at 2 sites, 1...

TreeNetViz: revealing patterns of networks over tree structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, Liang; Zhang, Xiaolong Luke

2011-12-01

Network data often contain important attributes from various dimensions such as social affiliations and areas of expertise in a social network. If such attributes exhibit a tree structure, visualizing a compound graph consisting of tree and network structures becomes complicated. How to visually reveal patterns of a network over a tree has not been fully studied. In this paper, we propose a compound graph model, TreeNet, to support visualization and analysis of a network at multiple levels of aggregation over a tree. We also present a visualization design, TreeNetViz, to offer the multiscale and cross-scale exploration and interaction of a TreeNet graph. TreeNetViz uses a Radial, Space-Filling (RSF) visualization to represent the tree structure, a circle layout with novel optimization to show aggregated networks derived from TreeNet, and an edge bundling technique to reduce visual complexity. Our circular layout algorithm reduces both total edge-crossings and edge length and also considers hierarchical structure constraints and edge weight in a TreeNet graph. These experiments illustrate that the algorithm can reduce visual cluttering in TreeNet graphs. Our case study also shows that TreeNetViz has the potential to support the analysis of a compound graph by revealing multiscale and cross-scale network patterns. © 2011 IEEE

Forest Management Intensity Affects Aquatic Communities in Artificial Tree Holes.

Science.gov (United States)

Petermann, Jana S; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Lade, Peggy; Guidetti, Brenda; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Gossner, Martin M

2016-01-01

Forest management could potentially affect organisms in all forest habitats. However, aquatic communities in water-filled tree-holes may be especially sensitive because of small population sizes, the risk of drought and potential dispersal limitation. We set up artificial tree holes in forest stands subject to different management intensities in two regions in Germany and assessed the influence of local environmental properties (tree-hole opening type, tree diameter, water volume and water temperature) as well as regional drivers (forest management intensity, tree-hole density) on tree-hole insect communities (not considering other organisms such as nematodes or rotifers), detritus content, oxygen and nutrient concentrations. In addition, we compared data from artificial tree holes with data from natural tree holes in the same area to evaluate the methodological approach of using tree-hole analogues. We found that forest management had strong effects on communities in artificial tree holes in both regions and across the season. Abundance and species richness declined, community composition shifted and detritus content declined with increasing forest management intensity. Environmental variables, such as tree-hole density and tree diameter partly explained these changes. However, dispersal limitation, indicated by effects of tree-hole density, generally showed rather weak impacts on communities. Artificial tree holes had higher water temperatures (on average 2°C higher) and oxygen concentrations (on average 25% higher) than natural tree holes. The abundance of organisms was higher but species richness was lower in artificial tree holes. Community composition differed between artificial and natural tree holes. Negative management effects were detectable in both tree-hole systems, despite their abiotic and biotic differences. Our results indicate that forest management has substantial and pervasive effects on tree-hole communities and may alter their structure and

Treatment of complementary events in event trees in constructing linked fault trees for level 1 and level 2 PRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, Y. G.

2008-01-01

Complementary events in the event trees for a PRA model should be treated properly in order to evaluate plant risk correctly. In this study, the characteristics of the following three different cut-set generation methods were investigated first in order to find the best practical way for treating complementary events: 1) exact method which treats complementary events logically, 2) no-delete term method which does not treat complementary events at all, and 3) delete term method which treats complementary events by deleting nonsense cut-sets which are generated as a result of ignoring complementary events. Then, practical methods for treating complementary events in constructing linked fault trees for level 1 and level 2 PRA in EPRI R and R workstation software environment, where CAFTA is the fault tree editor and FORTE is the cut-set engine, were suggested and demonstrated. The suggested methods deal with the following selected four typical cases: Case 1: an event tree event (E) is represented by a fault tree gate whose inputs consist of only fault tree gates, Case 2: E is represented by a single basic event, Case 3: E is represented by an OR fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs, and Case 4: E is represented by an AND fault tree gate which has a single basic event and a fault tree gate as inputs. In the suggested methods, first the high level logic structures of event tree events are examined and restructured, if needed. Then, the delete term method, the exact method, and the combination of the two methods are applied to Case 1, Case 2, and Cases 3 and 4, respectively. Also, it is recommended to treat complementary events, using the suggested methods, before level 1 and level 2 PRA fault trees are coupled. It should be noted that the selected four typical cases may not cover all different cases encountered in level 1 and level 2 PRA modeling. However, a process similar to the one suggested in this study may be used to find

TREE SELECTING AND TREE RING MEASURING IN DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sefa Akbulut

2004-04-01

Full Text Available Dendrochronology is a method of dating which makes use of the annual nature of tree growth. Dendrochronology may be divided into a number of subfields, each of which covers one or more aspects of the use of tree ring data: dendroclimatology, dendrogeomorphology, dendrohydrology, dendroecology, dendroarchaelogy, and dendrogylaciology. Basic of all form the analysis of the tree rings. The wood or tree rings can aid to dating past events about climatology, ecology, geology, hydrology. Dendrochronological studies are conducted either on increment cores or on discs. It may be seen abnormalities on tree rings during the measurement like that false rings, missing rings, reaction wood. Like that situation, increment cores must be extracted from four different sides of each tree and be studied as more as on tree.

Visualizing Individual Tree Differences in Tree-Ring Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Trouillier

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Averaging tree-ring measurements from multiple individuals is one of the most common procedures in dendrochronology. It serves to filter out noise from individual differences between trees, such as competition, height, and micro-site effects, which ideally results in a site chronology sensitive to regional scale factors such as climate. However, the climate sensitivity of individual trees can be modulated by factors like competition, height, and nitrogen deposition, calling attention to whether average chronologies adequately assess climatic growth-control. In this study, we demonstrate four simple but effective methods to visually assess differences between individual trees. Using individual tree climate-correlations we: (1 employed jitter plots with superimposed metadata to assess potential causes for these differences; (2 plotted the frequency distributions of climate correlations over time as heat maps; (3 mapped the spatial distribution of climate sensitivity over time to assess spatio-temporal dynamics; and (4 used t-distributed Stochastic Neighborhood Embedding (t-SNE to assess which trees were generally more similar in terms of their tree-ring pattern and their correlation with climate variables. This suite of exploratory methods can indicate if individuals in tree-ring datasets respond differently to climate variability, and therefore, should not solely be explored with climate correlations of the mean population chronology.

Fault tree handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haasl, D.F.; Roberts, N.H.; Vesely, W.E.; Goldberg, F.F.

1981-01-01

This handbook describes a methodology for reliability analysis of complex systems such as those which comprise the engineered safety features of nuclear power generating stations. After an initial overview of the available system analysis approaches, the handbook focuses on a description of the deductive method known as fault tree analysis. The following aspects of fault tree analysis are covered: basic concepts for fault tree analysis; basic elements of a fault tree; fault tree construction; probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra for the fault tree analyst; qualitative and quantitative fault tree evaluation techniques; and computer codes for fault tree evaluation. Also discussed are several example problems illustrating the basic concepts of fault tree construction and evaluation

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego; Sen, Ramazan Sonat; Cogliati, Joshua Joseph

2015-01-01

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named 'Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree' (HDET) and its Adaptive variant 'Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree' (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre

Compact QED tree-level amplitudes from dressed BCFW recursion relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Badger, Simon D.; Henn, Johannes M.

2010-05-01

We construct a modified on-shell BCFW recursion relation to derive compact analytic representations of tree-level amplitudes in QED. As an application, we study the amplitudes of a fermion pair coupling to an arbitrary number of photons and give compact formulae for the NMHV and N 2 MHV case. We demonstrate that the new recursion relation reduces the growth in complexity with additional photons to be exponential rather than factorial. (orig.)

Compact QED tree-level amplitudes from dressed BCFW recursion relations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Badger, Simon D. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany); Henn, Johannes M. [Humboldt Univ., Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik

2010-05-15

We construct a modified on-shell BCFW recursion relation to derive compact analytic representations of tree-level amplitudes in QED. As an application, we study the amplitudes of a fermion pair coupling to an arbitrary number of photons and give compact formulae for the NMHV and N{sup 2}MHV case. We demonstrate that the new recursion relation reduces the growth in complexity with additional photons to be exponential rather than factorial. (orig.)

Schistosoma mansoni reinfection: Analysis of risk factors by classification and regression tree (CART modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andréa Gazzinelli

Full Text Available Praziquantel (PZQ is an effective chemotherapy for schistosomiasis mansoni and a mainstay for its control and potential elimination. However, it does not prevent against reinfection, which can occur rapidly in areas with active transmission. A guide to ranking the risk factors for Schistosoma mansoni reinfection would greatly contribute to prioritizing resources and focusing prevention and control measures to prevent rapid reinfection. The objective of the current study was to explore the relationship among the socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological factors that can influence reinfection by S. mansoni one year after successful treatment with PZQ in school-aged children in Northeastern Minas Gerais state Brazil. Parasitological, socioeconomic, demographic, and water contact information were surveyed in 506 S. mansoni-infected individuals, aged 6 to 15 years, resident in these endemic areas. Eligible individuals were treated with PZQ until they were determined to be negative by the absence of S. mansoni eggs in the feces on two consecutive days of Kato-Katz fecal thick smear. These individuals were surveyed again 12 months from the date of successful treatment with PZQ. A classification and regression tree modeling (CART was then used to explore the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological variables and their reinfection status. The most important risk factor identified for S. mansoni reinfection was their "heavy" infection at baseline. Additional analyses, excluding heavy infection status, showed that lower socioeconomic status and a lower level of education of the household head were also most important risk factors for S. mansoni reinfection. Our results provide an important contribution toward the control and possible elimination of schistosomiasis by identifying three major risk factors that can be used for targeted treatment and monitoring of reinfection. We suggest that control measures that target

Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarrack, A.G.

1999-06-22

The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Computer-aided event tree analysis by the impact vector method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima, J.E.P.

1984-01-01

In the development of the Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Angra I, the ' large event tree/small fault tree' approach was adopted for the analysis of the plant behavior in an emergency situation. In this work, the event tree methodology is presented along with the adaptations which had to be made in order to attain a correct description of the safety system performances according to the selected analysis method. The problems appearing in the application of the methodology and their respective solutions are presented and discussed, with special emphasis to the impact vector technique. A description of the ETAP code ('Event Tree Analysis Program') developed for constructing and quantifying event trees is also given in this work. A preliminary version of the small-break LOCA analysis for Angra 1 is presented as an example of application of the methodology and of the code. It is shown that the use of the ETAP code sigmnificantly contributes to decreasing the time spent in event tree analyses, making it viable the practical application of the analysis approach referred above. (author) [pt

Assessing the risk caused by ground level ozone to European forest trees: A case study in pine, beech and oak across different climate regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Emberson, Lisa D.; Bueker, Patrick; Ashmore, Mike R.

2007-01-01

Two different indices have been proposed for estimation of the risk caused to forest trees across Europe by ground-level ozone, (i) the concentration based AOT40 index (Accumulated Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) and (ii) the recently developed flux based AFstY index (Accumulated stomatal Flux above a flux threshold Y). This paper compares the AOT40 and AFstY indices for three forest trees species at different locations in Europe. The AFstY index is estimated using the DO 3 SE (Deposition of Ozone and Stomatal Exchange) model parameterized for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and holm oak (Quercus ilex). The results show a large difference in the perceived O 3 risk when using AOT40 and AFstY indices both between species and regions. The AOT40 index shows a strong north-south gradient across Europe, whereas there is little difference between regions in the modelled values of AFstY. There are significant differences in modelled AFstY between species, which are predominantly determined by differences in the timing and length of the growing season, the periods during which soil moisture deficit limits stomatal conductance, and adaptation to soil moisture stress. This emphasizes the importance of defining species-specific flux response variables to obtain a more accurate quantification of O 3 risk. - A new flux-based model provides a revised assessment of risks of ozone impacts to European forests

Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Isoda, N; Kadohira, M; Sekiguchi, S; Schuppers, M; Stärk, K D C

2015-06-01

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Modular tree automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bahr, Patrick

2012-01-01

Tree automata are traditionally used to study properties of tree languages and tree transformations. In this paper, we consider tree automata as the basis for modular and extensible recursion schemes. We show, using well-known techniques, how to derive from standard tree automata highly modular...

The Self Representation in Schizophrenic patients: Considerations on the Draw a Tree Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvatore Settineri

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract   Objective: The tree is the archetypal symbol of the identification in the growing life. The objective of this study is to evaluate the representation of the self in schizophrenic patients through the tree drawing. Methods: Were identified 36 patients, 22 women and 14 (M-age=53, suffering from schizophrenic disorder. Through the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS and the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS positive and negative symptoms, and the reactive tree representation of the self were assessed.   Results: In the group with negative symptoms archetypal figures are more frequent, such as images that are part of the collective unconscious, or thought more archaic. In patients in which emerges the delirium, that is part of the most evolved thinking, near to the secondary process, the reality testing is better preserved. In cases where there are symptoms mixed the tree structure leads to an archetypal image. Conclusions: This study shows that in the draw of the tree trunk-to-crown ratio in schizophrenic patients was significantly higher than that of healthy individuals. The usefulness of the study insert itself in the Jungian analytic thought, for which psychotic thought corresponds to an abbaissement of the self activity.   Keyword: Representation of Self; Schizophrenia; Draw a Tree Test.

Somatic embryogenesis and cryostorage for conservation and restoration of threatened forest trees

Science.gov (United States)

S.A. Merkle; A.R. Tull; H.J. Gladfelter; P.M. Montello; J.E. Mitchell; C. Ahn; R.D. McNeill

2017-01-01

Threats to North American forest trees from exotic pests and pathogens or habitat loss, make it imperative that every available tool be employed for conservation and restoration of these at risk species. One such tool, in vitro propagation, could greatly enhance conservation of forest tree genetic material and selection and breeding of resistant or...

Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, N L; Das, A J; Condit, R; Russo, S E; Baker, P J; Beckman, N G; Coomes, D A; Lines, E R; Morris, W K; Rüger, N; Alvarez, E; Blundo, C; Bunyavejchewin, S; Chuyong, G; Davies, S J; Duque, A; Ewango, C N; Flores, O; Franklin, J F; Grau, H R; Hao, Z; Harmon, M E; Hubbell, S P; Kenfack, D; Lin, Y; Makana, J-R; Malizia, A; Malizia, L R; Pabst, R J; Pongpattananurak, N; Su, S-H; Sun, I-F; Tan, S; Thomas, D; van Mantgem, P J; Wang, X; Wiser, S K; Zavala, M A

2014-03-06

Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle--particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage--increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the individual tree, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute tree mass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees; at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of individual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level and stand-level productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree's total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth, inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation and plant senescence.

TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomadsen, B. [University of Wisconsin (United States)

2016-06-15

This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 different clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.

TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomadsen, B.

2016-01-01

This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 different clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.

The interaction between freezing tolerance and phenology in temperate deciduous trees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yann eVitasse

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Temperate climates are defined by a distinct temperature seasonality with large and often unpredictable weather during any of the four seasons. To thrive in such climates, trees have to withstand a cold winter and the stochastic occurrence of freeze events during any time of the year. The physiological mechanisms trees adopt to escape, avoid and tolerate freezing temperatures include a cold acclimation in autumn, a dormancy period during winter (leafless in deciduous trees, and the maintenance of a certain freezing tolerance during dehardening in early spring. The change from one phase to the next is mediated by complex interactions between temperature and photoperiod. This review aims at providing an overview of the interplay between phenology of leaves and species-specific freezing resistance. First, we address the long-term evolutionary responses that enabled temperate trees to tolerate certain low temperature extremes. We provide evidence that short term acclimation of freezing resistance plays a crucial role both in dormant and active buds, including re-acclimation to cold conditions following warm spells. This ability declines to almost zero during leaf emergence. Second, we show that the risk that native temperate trees encounter freeze injuries is low and is confined to spring and underline that this risk might be altered by climate warming depending on species-specific phenological responses to environmental cues.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

A Framework For Analyzing And Mitigating The Vulnerabilities Of Complex Systems Via Attack And Protection Trees

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Edge, Kenneth S

2007-01-01

.... Attack trees by themselves do not provide enough decision support to system defenders. This research develops the concept of using protection trees to offer a detailed risk analysis of a system...

A Cross-cultural Analytical Framework for Territorial Development Policies : The Application to Flood Risk Management Policies in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rongwinriyaphanich, S.

2011-01-01

This paper presents the application of a proposed analytical framework that takes cultural dimensions as main parameters to explain territorial development processes. It is illustrated through the analysis of flood risk management in two case study areas in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. It aims

Representing cognitive activities and errors in HRA trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D.I.

1992-01-01

This paper discusses development of a means by which to present cognitive information in human reliability assessment (HRA) event trees. The descriptions found in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) regarding the demands on, and the resulting performance of, nuclear power plant (NPP) crews often make use of the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP), which provides a mechanism, the HRA event tree, for presenting the analyst's conceptualization of the activities underlying performance and the errors associated with that performance. When using THERP, analysts have often omitted the more complex elements of human cognition from these trees. There has yet to be a concerted effort to take theory, principles, and data from cognitive psychology and wed it to the logic structure of the HRA event tree. This paper attempts to do so. The COGENT modeling scheme (cognitively based HRA event trees) adds two taxonomies to the HRA event tree proposed by Swain and Guttman. The first taxonomy, the one proposed by Norman and Reason, describes the type of error committed and implies something about the underlying cognition as well. The second of these, the Rasmussen taxonomy, provides description regarding the skill-based, rule-based, or knowledge-based behavior underlying the execution of tasks. It is not apparent and must be deduced from the pattern of errors exhibited by personnel

A bijection between phylogenetic trees and plane oriented recursive trees

OpenAIRE

Prodinger, Helmut

2017-01-01

Phylogenetic trees are binary nonplanar trees with labelled leaves, and plane oriented recursive trees are planar trees with an increasing labelling. Both families are enumerated by double factorials. A bijection is constructed, using the respective representations a 2-partitions and trapezoidal words.

A Demographic Approach to Evaluating Tree Population Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corey R. Halpin

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Quantitative criteria for assessing demographic sustainability of tree populations would be useful in forest conservation, as climate change and a growing complex of invasive pests are likely to drive forests outside their historic range of variability. In this paper, we used CANOPY, a spatially explicit, individual‐tree model, to examine the effects of initial size distributions on sustainability of tree populations for 70 northern hardwood stands under current environmental conditions. A demographic sustainability index was calculated as the ratio of future simulated basal area to current basal area, given current demographic structure and density‐dependent demographic equations. Only steeply descending size distributions were indicated to be moderately or highly sustainable (final basal area/initial basal area ≥0.7 over several tree generations. Five of the six principal species had demographic sustainability index values of <0.6 in 40%–84% of the stands. However, at a small landscape scale, nearly all species had mean index values >1. Simulation experiments suggested that a minimum sapling density of 300 per hectare was required to sustain the initial basal area, but further increases in sapling density did not increase basal area because of coincident increases in mortality. A variable slope with high q‐ratios in small size classes was needed to maintain the existing overstory of mature and old‐growth stands. This analytical approach may be useful in identifying stands needing restoration treatments to maintain existing species composition in situations where forests are likely to have future recruitment limitations.

Computational red teaming risk analytics of big-data-to-decisions intelligent systems

CERN Document Server

Abbass, Hussein A

2015-01-01

Written to bridge the information needs of management and computational scientists, this book presents the first comprehensive treatment of Computational Red Teaming (CRT).  The author describes an analytics environment that blends human reasoning and computational modeling to design risk-aware and evidence-based smart decision making systems. He presents the Shadow CRT Machine, which shadows the operations of an actual system to think with decision makers, challenge threats, and design remedies. This is the first book to generalize red teaming (RT) outside the military and security domains and it offers coverage of RT principles, practical and ethical guidelines. The author utilizes Gilbert’s principles for introducing a science. Simplicity: where the book follows a special style to make it accessible to a wide range of  readers. Coherence:  where only necessary elements from experimentation, optimization, simulation, data mining, big data, cognitive information processing, and system thinking are blend...

Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, N.L.; Das, A.J.; Condit, R.; Russo, S.E.; Baker, P.J.; Beckman, N.G.; Coomes, D.A.; Lines, E.R.; Morris, W.K.; Rüger, N.; Álvarez, E.; Blundo, C.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Chuyong, G.; Davies, S.J.; Duque, Á.; Ewango, C.N.; Flores, O.; Franklin, J.F.; Grau, H.R.; Hao, Z.; Harmon, M.E.; Hubbell, S.P.; Kenfack, D.; Lin, Y.; Makana, J.-R.; Malizia, A.; Malizia, L.R.; Pabst, R.J.; Pongpattananurak, N.; Su, S.-H.; Sun, I-F.; Tan, S.; Thomas, D.; van Mantgem, P.J.; Wang, X.; Wiser, S.K.; Zavala, M.A.

2014-01-01

Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle—particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage - increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the individual tree, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute tree mass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees; at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of individual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level and stand-level productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree’s total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth, inform efforts to understand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation and plant senescence.

Using Decision Trees to Characterize Verbal Communication During Change and Stuck Episodes in the Therapeutic Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Hugo eMasías

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Methods are needed for creating models to characterize verbal communication between therapists and their patients that are suitable for teaching purposes without losing analytical potential. A technique meeting these twin requirements is proposed that uses decision trees to identify both change and stuck episodes in therapist-patient communication. Three decision tree algorithms (C4.5, NBtree, and REPtree are applied to the problem of characterizing verbal responses into change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process. The data for the problem is derived from a corpus of 8 successful individual therapy sessions with 1,760 speaking turns in a psychodynamic context. The decision tree model that performed best was generated by the C4.5 algorithm. It delivered 15 rules characterizing the verbal communication in the two types of episodes. Decision trees are a promising technique for analyzing verbal communication during significant therapy events and have much potential for use in teaching practice on changes in therapeutic communication. The development of pedagogical methods using decision trees can support the transmission of academic knowledge to therapeutic practice.

Using decision trees to characterize verbal communication during change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process.

Science.gov (United States)

Masías, Víctor H; Krause, Mariane; Valdés, Nelson; Pérez, J C; Laengle, Sigifredo

2015-01-01

Methods are needed for creating models to characterize verbal communication between therapists and their patients that are suitable for teaching purposes without losing analytical potential. A technique meeting these twin requirements is proposed that uses decision trees to identify both change and stuck episodes in therapist-patient communication. Three decision tree algorithms (C4.5, NBTree, and REPTree) are applied to the problem of characterizing verbal responses into change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process. The data for the problem is derived from a corpus of 8 successful individual therapy sessions with 1760 speaking turns in a psychodynamic context. The decision tree model that performed best was generated by the C4.5 algorithm. It delivered 15 rules characterizing the verbal communication in the two types of episodes. Decision trees are a promising technique for analyzing verbal communication during significant therapy events and have much potential for use in teaching practice on changes in therapeutic communication. The development of pedagogical methods using decision trees can support the transmission of academic knowledge to therapeutic practice.

Pre-Analytical Components of Risk in Four Branches of Clinical Laboratory in Romania--Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

David, Remona E; Dobreanu, Minodora

2016-01-01

Development of quality measurement principles is a strategic point for each clinical laboratory. Preexamination process is the most critical and the most difficult to be managed. The aim of this study is to identify, quantify, and monitor the nonconformities of the pre-analytical process using quality indicators that can affect the patient's health safety in four different locations of a Romanian private clinical laboratory. The study group consisted of all the analysis requests received by the departments of biochemistry, hematology, and coagulation from January through March 2015. In order to collect the pre-analytical nonconformities, we created a "Risk Budget", using the entries from the "Evidence notebook--non-conform samples" from the above mentioned departments. The laboratory established the quality indicators by means of the risk management technique in order to identify and control the sources of errors, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analyses), which had been implemented and monitored for its purposes and special needs. For the assessment of the control level over the processes, the results were transformed on the Six Sigma scale, using the Westgard calculation method and being obtained in this way the frequency with which an error may occur. (https://www.westgard. com/six-sigma-calculators.htm). The obtained results prove that the quantification and monitoring of the indicators can be a control instrument for the pre-analytic activities. The calculation of the Six Sigma value adds extra information to the study because it allows the detection of the processes which need improvement (Sigma value higher than 4 represents a well controlled process). The highest rates were observed for the hemolyzed and the lipemic samples, in the department of biochemistry and hemolyzed, insufficient sample volume, or clotted samples for the department of hematology and coagulation. Significant statistical differences between laboratories participating in the study have

Evaluation of the seasonal and annual abortifacient risk of western juniper trees on Oregon rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Needles from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees are known to cause late term abortions in cattle. Recently, there have been several reports of abortion rates of 10-15% within cattle herds in Oregon after cattle were pastured in areas with abundant western juniper trees (Juniperus occidentalis)....

Reversed-phase liquid chromatographic profile of free amino acids in strawberry-tree (Arbutus unedo L.) honey.

Science.gov (United States)

Spano, Nadia; Piras, Irene; Ciulu, Marco; Floris, Ignazio; Panzanelli, Angelo; Pilo, Maria I; Piu, Paola C; Sanna, Gavino

2009-01-01

The typical profile of the free amino acids contained in strawberry-tree (Arbutus unedo L.) honey is reported for the first time. An optimized reversed-phase liquid chromatographic (RP-LC) method with phenyl isothiocyanate precolumn derivatization was used. Fourteen free amino acids were identified and quantified in 16 analytical samples. Proline (65.63%) was found to be the most abundant free amino acid, followed by glutamic acid (6.49%), arginine (5.21%), alanine (5.17%), and phenylalanine (4.97%). The total free amino acid content of strawberry-tree honey (average value, 436 mg/kg) was found to be low in comparison to amounts cited in the literature concerning unifloral honeys. The analytical method was optimized and fully validated in terms of detection and quantitation limits, precision (by testing repeatability and reproducibility), linearity, and bias (by means of recovery tests). The acceptability of the validation protocol results was verified using Horwitz's mathematical model and AOAC guidelines.

IcyTree: rapid browser-based visualization for phylogenetic trees and networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Timothy G

2017-08-01

IcyTree is an easy-to-use application which can be used to visualize a wide variety of phylogenetic trees and networks. While numerous phylogenetic tree viewers exist already, IcyTree distinguishes itself by being a purely online tool, having a responsive user interface, supporting phylogenetic networks (ancestral recombination graphs in particular), and efficiently drawing trees that include information such as ancestral locations or trait values. IcyTree also provides intuitive panning and zooming utilities that make exploring large phylogenetic trees of many thousands of taxa feasible. IcyTree is a web application and can be accessed directly at http://tgvaughan.github.com/icytree . Currently supported web browsers include Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome. IcyTree is written entirely in client-side JavaScript (no plugin required) and, once loaded, does not require network access to run. IcyTree is free software, and the source code is made available at http://github.com/tgvaughan/icytree under version 3 of the GNU General Public License. tgvaughan@gmail.com. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Introducing tree interactions in wind damage simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schelhaas, M.J.; Kramer, K.; Peltola, H.; Werf, van der D.C.; Wijdeven, S.M.J.

2007-01-01

Wind throw is an important risk factor in forest management in North-western Europe. In recent years, mechanistic models have been developed to estimate critical wind speeds needed to break or uproot the average tree of a forest stand. Based on these models, we developed a wind damage module for the

TreeScaper: Visualizing and Extracting Phylogenetic Signal from Sets of Trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Wen; Zhou, Guifang; Marchand, Melissa; Ash, Jeremy R; Morris, David; Van Dooren, Paul; Brown, Jeremy M; Gallivan, Kyle A; Wilgenbusch, Jim C

2016-12-01

Modern phylogenomic analyses often result in large collections of phylogenetic trees representing uncertainty in individual gene trees, variation across genes, or both. Extracting phylogenetic signal from these tree sets can be challenging, as they are difficult to visualize, explore, and quantify. To overcome some of these challenges, we have developed TreeScaper, an application for tree set visualization as well as the identification of distinct phylogenetic signals. GUI and command-line versions of TreeScaper and a manual with tutorials can be downloaded from https://github.com/whuang08/TreeScaper/releases TreeScaper is distributed under the GNU General Public License. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Silviculture and the assessment of climate change genetic risk for southern Appalachian forest tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin M. Potter; Barbara S. Crane

2012-01-01

Changing climate conditions and increasing insect and pathogen infestations will increase the likelihood that forest trees could experience population-level extirpation or species-level extinction during the next century. Gene conservation and silvicultural efforts to preserve forest tree genetic diversity present a particular challenge in species-rich regions such as...

Exploring the cosmic evolution of habitability with galaxy merger trees

Science.gov (United States)

Stanway, E. R.; Hoskin, M. J.; Lane, M. A.; Brown, G. C.; Childs, H. J. T.; Greis, S. M. L.; Levan, A. J.

2018-04-01

We combine inferred galaxy properties from a semi-analytic galaxy evolution model incorporating dark matter halo merger trees with new estimates of supernova and gamma-ray burst rates as a function of metallicity from stellar population synthesis models incorporating binary interactions. We use these to explore the stellar-mass fraction of galaxies irradiated by energetic astrophysical transients and its evolution over cosmic time, and thus the fraction which is potentially habitable by life like our own. We find that 18 per cent of the stellar mass in the Universe is likely to have been irradiated within the last 260 Myr, with GRBs dominating that fraction. We do not see a strong dependence of irradiated stellar-mass fraction on stellar mass or richness of the galaxy environment. We consider a representative merger tree as a Local Group analogue, and find that there are galaxies at all masses which have retained a high habitable fraction (>40 per cent) over the last 6 Gyr, but also that there are galaxies at all masses where the merger history and associated star formation have rendered galaxies effectively uninhabitable. This illustrates the need to consider detailed merger trees when evaluating the cosmic evolution of habitability.

Improving acute kidney injury diagnostics using predictive analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Rajit K; Gist, Katja; Wheeler, Derek S

2015-12-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a multifactorial syndrome affecting an alarming proportion of hospitalized patients. Although early recognition may expedite management, the ability to identify patients at-risk and those suffering real-time injury is inconsistent. The review will summarize the recent reports describing advancements in the area of AKI epidemiology, specifically focusing on risk scoring and predictive analytics. In the critical care population, the primary underlying factors limiting prediction models include an inability to properly account for patient heterogeneity and underperforming metrics used to assess kidney function. Severity of illness scores demonstrate limited AKI predictive performance. Recent evidence suggests traditional methods for detecting AKI may be leveraged and ultimately replaced by newer, more sophisticated analytical tools capable of prediction and identification: risk stratification, novel AKI biomarkers, and clinical information systems. Additionally, the utility of novel biomarkers may be optimized through targeting using patient context, and may provide more granular information about the injury phenotype. Finally, manipulation of the electronic health record allows for real-time recognition of injury. Integrating a high-functioning clinical information system with risk stratification methodology and novel biomarker yields a predictive analytic model for AKI diagnostics.

A classification tree for the prediction of benign versus malignant disease in patients with small renal masses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rendon, Ricardo A; Mason, Ross J; Kirkland, Susan; Lawen, Joseph G; Abdolell, Mohamed

2014-08-01

To develop a classification tree for the preoperative prediction of benign versus malignant disease in patients with small renal masses. This is a retrospective study including 395 consecutive patients who underwent surgical treatment for a renal mass classification tree to predict the risk of having a benign renal mass preoperatively was developed using recursive partitioning analysis for repeated measures outcomes. Age, sex, volume on preoperative imaging, tumor location (central/peripheral), degree of endophytic component (1%-100%), and tumor axis position were used as potential predictors to develop the model. Forty-five patients (11.4%) were found to have a benign mass postoperatively. A classification tree has been developed which can predict the risk of benign disease with an accuracy of 88.9% (95% CI: 85.3 to 91.8). The significant prognostic factors in the classification tree are tumor volume, degree of endophytic component and symptoms at diagnosis. As an example of its utilization, a renal mass with a volume of classification tree to predict the risk of benign disease in small renal masses has been developed to aid the clinician when deciding on treatment strategies for small renal masses.

Flowering Trees

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

IAS Admin

Flowering Trees. Ailanthus excelsa Roxb. (INDIAN TREE OF. HEAVEN) of Simaroubaceae is a lofty tree with large pinnately compound alternate leaves, which are ... inflorescences, unisexual and greenish-yellow. Fruits are winged, wings many-nerved. Wood is used in making match sticks. 1. Male flower; 2. Female flower.

Lesser prairie-chicken avoidance of trees in a grassland landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Lautenbach, Joseph M.; Plumb, Reid T.; Robinson, Samantha G.; Hagen, Christian A.; Haukos, David A.; Pitman, James C.

2016-01-01

Grasslands are among the most imperiled ecosystems in North America. Reasons that grasslands are threatened include conversion to row-crop agriculture, fragmentation, and changes in fire regimes. The reduction of fire processes in remaining prairies has resulted in tree encroachment and establishment in grasslands, further reducing grassland quantity and quality. Grassland birds have been experiencing precipitous population declines in recent decades, commensurate with landscape changes to grasslands. The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus Ridgway) is a declining species of prairie grouse of conservation concern. We used second- and third-order habitat selection metrics to test if female lesser prairie-chickens avoid grasslands where trees were present. Our results indicated that female lesser prairie-chickens selected habitats avoiding the nearest trees by 283 m on average, nearly twice as far as would be expected at random. Lesser prairie-chickens were 40 times more likely to use habitats with tree densities of 0 trees ∙ ha− 1 than habitats with 5 trees ∙ ha− 1. Probability of use indicated that lesser prairie-chickens were 19 times more likely to use habitats 1000 m from the nearest tree when compared with using habitats 0 m from the nearest tree. Nest survival was not affected at densities 2 trees ∙ ha− 1. Avoidance of trees could be due to perceived increased predation risk, reduced habitat quality, or a combination of these potentially confounding factors. Preventing further establishment and expansion of trees in landscapes occupied by lesser prairie-chickens could contribute to the continued persistence of the species. Additionally, restoring grasslands through tree removal may facilitate conservation efforts for grassland species such as the lesser prairie-chicken by improving habitat quality and promoting expansion of occupied range.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

2017-08-01

The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

Hypoglycin A in maple trees in the Netherlands and the risk of equine atypical myopathy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Westermann, C.M.; van Leeuwen, Robbert; Mol, Hans

2016-01-01

The Acer (maple) genus of trees comprises over 120 species worldwide. Some of these contain the plant-toxin hypoglycin-A which has been proven to be a cause of the highly fatal condition called atypical myopathy (AM) in horses and ponies. In an earlier study of maple-tree samples (leaves and seeds)

Factors influencing bird foraging preferences among conspecific fruit trees

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, M.S.

1990-01-01

The rates at which birds visit fruiting individuals of Allophylus edulis (Sapindaceae) differ substantially among trees. Such avian feeding preferences are well-known, but usually involve fruits and trees of different species. Factors controlling avian preferences for particular trees in a population of conspecifics are generally undocumented. To address this issue, I attempted to correlate rates at which individual birds and species fed in trees of Allophylus with 27 fruit or plant characteristics. Birds that swallow fruits whole were considered separately from those that feed in other ways. Plant characters were selected on the basis of their potential influence on feeding efficiency or predation risk, assuming that birds would select feeding trees so as to maximize the net rate of energy or nutrient intake and to minimize predation. Correlations were found between feeding visits by some groups of birds and percent water in the pulp, milligrams of mineral ash in the pulp, and crop size. No character was correlated with feeding visits by all groups of birds in both years of the study. The correlations with water and mineral ash are unexplained and may be artifacts. The correlation with crop size may represent a tactic to minimize predation.

Scientometrics of Forest Health and Tree Diseases: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Pautasso

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Maintaining forest health is a worldwide challenge due to emerging tree diseases, shifts in climate conditions and other global change stressors. Research on forest health is thus accumulating rapidly, but there has been little use of scientometric approaches in forest pathology and dendrology. Scientometrics is the quantitative study of trends in the scientific literature. As with all tools, scientometrics needs to be used carefully (e.g., by checking findings in multiple databases and its results must be interpreted with caution. In this overview, we provide some examples of studies of patterns in the scientific literature related to forest health and tree pathogens. Whilst research on ash dieback has increased rapidly over the last years, papers mentioning the Waldsterben have become rare in the literature. As with human health and diseases, but in contrast to plant health and diseases, there are consistently more publications mentioning “tree health” than “tree disease,” possibly a consequence of the often holistic nature of forest pathology. Scientometric tools can help balance research attention towards understudied emerging risks to forest trees, as well as identify temporal trends in public interest in forests and their health.

Tree genetic engineering and applications to sustainable forestry and biomass production.

Science.gov (United States)

Harfouche, Antoine; Meilan, Richard; Altman, Arie

2011-01-01

Forest trees provide raw materials, help to maintain biodiversity and mitigate the effects of climate change. Certain tree species can also be used as feedstocks for bioenergy production. Achieving these goals may require the introduction or modified expression of genes to enhance biomass production in a sustainable and environmentally responsible manner. Tree genetic engineering has advanced to the point at which genes for desirable traits can now be introduced and expressed efficiently; examples include biotic and abiotic stress tolerance, improved wood properties, root formation and phytoremediation. Transgene confinement, including flowering control, may be needed to avoid ecological risks and satisfy regulatory requirements. This and stable expression are key issues that need to be resolved before transgenic trees can be used commercially. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Use of Analytic Network Process for Risk Assessment in Production of Renewable Energy from Agriculture Biomass in Latvia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandija Rivza

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is an important factor for successful and sustainable entrepreneurship of bioenergy production that has become one of the priorities in energy sector of Latvia. Promotion of the use of renewable energy is included as one of the strategic goals for European Union (EU and Latvia. As this field of energy production in Latvia is rather new and scantily explored there are many risk factors arising in different stages of production, starting with planning and building of a bioreactor and ending with production and further use and distribution of energy. The present research focuses on risk assessment in renewable energy production form biomass as this kind of energy is seen as a perspective source for renewable energy under the conditions of Latvia. A risk assessment module for renewable energy production made by using the Analytic Network Process (ANP software is described in the paper.

Zoning Of Apple Trees In Province Of Khorasan Razavi Iran

OpenAIRE

Mokhtar Karami; Mehdi Asadi

2015-01-01

The main objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of prone areas for apple cultivation in Razavi Khorasan province. Therefore in this study criteria and sub criteria were considered to determine suitable areas for growing apple trees and due to the importance of data integration Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP was selected to determine the weight of layers. The software ArcGIS version 10.2.2 was used to analyze the spatial and overlapping layers after data analysis in terms o...

Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poussart, P.; Myneni, S.; Lanzirotti, A.

2006-01-01

Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings. Alternative methods exist (dendrometry, radio- and stable isotopes), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within (le)2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible

The stationary sine-Gordon equation on metric graphs: Exact analytical solutions for simple topologies

Science.gov (United States)

Sabirov, K.; Rakhmanov, S.; Matrasulov, D.; Susanto, H.

2018-04-01

We consider the stationary sine-Gordon equation on metric graphs with simple topologies. Exact analytical solutions are obtained for different vertex boundary conditions. It is shown that the method can be extended for tree and other simple graph topologies. Applications of the obtained results to branched planar Josephson junctions and Josephson junctions with tricrystal boundaries are discussed.

Event tree analysis for the system of hybrid reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Yongwei; Qiu Lijian

1993-01-01

The application of probabilistic risk assessment for fusion-fission hybrid reactor is introduced. A hybrid reactor system has been analysed using event trees. According to the character of the conceptual design of Hefei Fusion-fission Experimental Hybrid Breeding Reactor, the probabilities of the event tree series induced by 4 typical initiating events were calculated. The results showed that the conceptual design is safe and reasonable. through this paper, the safety character of hybrid reactor system has been understood more deeply. Some suggestions valuable to safety design for hybrid reactor have been proposed

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Davis, Kristin P.

2016-01-01

The drivers of background tree mortality rates—the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought—are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the “ambient” or “random” background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from

Flowering Trees

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Flowering Trees. Gyrocarpus americanus Jacq. (Helicopter Tree) of Hernandiaceae is a moderate size deciduous tree that grows to about 12 m in height with a smooth, shining, greenish-white bark. The leaves are ovate, rarely irregularly ... flowers which are unpleasant smelling. Fruit is a woody nut with two long thin wings.

Calculating Adversarial Risk from Attack Trees: Control Strength and Probabilistic Attackers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pieters, Wolter; Davarynejad, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Attack trees are a well-known formalism for quantitative analysis of cyber attacks consisting of multiple steps and alternative paths. It is possible to derive properties of the overall attacks from properties of individual steps, such as cost for the attacker and probability of success. However, in

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sen, Ramazan Sonat [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua Joseph [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the

Science in the city: Urban trees, forests, and people

Science.gov (United States)

Kathleen L. Wolf

2016-01-01

The article, intended for professional and manager audiences, is an overview of current research in urban forestry. Topics include tree science, forest risks, forest management and assessment, ecosystem services, and urban socio-ecological systems (including governance and stewardship).

Optimizing continuous cover management of boreal forest when timber prices and tree growth are stochastic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timo Pukkala

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background Decisions on forest management are made under risk and uncertainty because the stand development cannot be predicted exactly and future timber prices are unknown. Deterministic calculations may lead to biased advice on optimal forest management. The study optimized continuous cover management of boreal forest in a situation where tree growth, regeneration, and timber prices include uncertainty. Methods Both anticipatory and adaptive optimization approaches were used. The adaptive approach optimized the reservation price function instead of fixed cutting years. The future prices of different timber assortments were described by cross-correlated auto-regressive models. The high variation around ingrowth model was simulated using a model that describes the cross- and autocorrelations of the regeneration results of different species and years. Tree growth was predicted with individual tree models, the predictions of which were adjusted on the basis of a climate-induced growth trend, which was stochastic. Residuals of the deterministic diameter growth model were also simulated. They consisted of random tree factors and cross- and autocorrelated temporal terms. Results Of the analyzed factors, timber price caused most uncertainty in the calculation of the net present value of a certain management schedule. Ingrowth and climate trend were less significant sources of risk and uncertainty than tree growth. Stochastic anticipatory optimization led to more diverse post-cutting stand structures than obtained in deterministic optimization. Cutting interval was shorter when risk and uncertainty were included in the analyses. Conclusions Adaptive optimization and management led to 6%–14% higher net present values than obtained in management that was based on anticipatory optimization. Increasing risk aversion of the forest landowner led to earlier cuttings in a mature stand. The effect of risk attitude on optimization results was small.

Cache-Oblivious Search Trees via Binary Trees of Small Height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brodal, G.S.; Fagerberg, R.; Jacob, R.

2002-01-01

We propose a version of cache oblivious search trees which is simpler than the previous proposal of Bender, Demaine and Farach-Colton and has the same complexity bounds. In particular, our data structure avoids the use of weight balanced B-trees, and can be implemented as just a single array......, and range queries in worst case O(logB n + k/B) memory transfers, where k is the size of the output.The basic idea of our data structure is to maintain a dynamic binary tree of height log n+O(1) using existing methods, embed this tree in a static binary tree, which in turn is embedded in an array in a cache...... oblivious fashion, using the van Emde Boas layout of Prokop.We also investigate the practicality of cache obliviousness in the area of search trees, by providing an empirical comparison of different methods for laying out a search tree in memory....

Flowering Trees

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Flowering Trees. Boswellia serrata Roxb. ex Colebr. (Indian Frankincense tree) of Burseraceae is a large-sized deciduous tree that is native to India. Bark is thin, greenish-ash-coloured that exfoliates into smooth papery flakes. Stem exudes pinkish resin ... Fruit is a three-valved capsule. A green gum-resin exudes from the ...

Quantifying construction and demolition waste: An analytical review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Zezhou; Yu, Ann T.W.; Shen, Liyin; Liu, Guiwen

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Prevailing C and D waste quantification methodologies are identified and compared. • One specific methodology cannot fulfill all waste quantification scenarios. • A relevance tree for appropriate quantification methodology selection is proposed. • More attentions should be paid to civil and infrastructural works. • Classified information is suggested for making an effective waste management plan. - Abstract: Quantifying construction and demolition (C and D) waste generation is regarded as a prerequisite for the implementation of successful waste management. In literature, various methods have been employed to quantify the C and D waste generation at both regional and project levels. However, an integrated review that systemically describes and analyses all the existing methods has yet to be conducted. To bridge this research gap, an analytical review is conducted. Fifty-seven papers are retrieved based on a set of rigorous procedures. The characteristics of the selected papers are classified according to the following criteria - waste generation activity, estimation level and quantification methodology. Six categories of existing C and D waste quantification methodologies are identified, including site visit method, waste generation rate method, lifetime analysis method, classification system accumulation method, variables modelling method and other particular methods. A critical comparison of the identified methods is given according to their characteristics and implementation constraints. Moreover, a decision tree is proposed for aiding the selection of the most appropriate quantification method in different scenarios. Based on the analytical review, limitations of previous studies and recommendations of potential future research directions are further suggested

Systolic trees and systolic language recognition by tree automata

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steinby, M

1983-01-01

K. Culik II, J. Gruska, A. Salomaa and D. Wood have studied the language recognition capabilities of certain types of systolically operating networks of processors (see research reports Cs-81-32, Cs-81-36 and Cs-82-01, Univ. of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada). In this paper, their model for systolic VLSI trees is formalised in terms of standard tree automaton theory, and the way in which some known facts about recognisable forests and tree transductions can be applied in VLSI tree theory is demonstrated. 13 references.

DupTree: a program for large-scale phylogenetic analyses using gene tree parsimony.

Science.gov (United States)

Wehe, André; Bansal, Mukul S; Burleigh, J Gordon; Eulenstein, Oliver

2008-07-01

DupTree is a new software program for inferring rooted species trees from collections of gene trees using the gene tree parsimony approach. The program implements a novel algorithm that significantly improves upon the run time of standard search heuristics for gene tree parsimony, and enables the first truly genome-scale phylogenetic analyses. In addition, DupTree allows users to examine alternate rootings and to weight the reconciliation costs for gene trees. DupTree is an open source project written in C++. DupTree for Mac OS X, Windows, and Linux along with a sample dataset and an on-line manual are available at http://genome.cs.iastate.edu/CBL/DupTree

Risk-informed Analytical Approaches to Concentration Averaging for the Purpose of Waste Classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esh, D.W.; Pinkston, K.E.; Barr, C.S.; Bradford, A.H.; Ridge, A.Ch.

2009-01-01

Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has developed a concentration averaging approach and guidance for the review of Department of Energy (DOE) non-HLW determinations. Although the approach was focused on this specific application, concentration averaging is generally applicable to waste classification and thus has implications for waste management decisions as discussed in more detail in this paper. In the United States, radioactive waste has historically been classified into various categories for the purpose of ensuring that the disposal system selected is commensurate with the hazard of the waste such that public health and safety will be protected. However, the risk from the near-surface disposal of radioactive waste is not solely a function of waste concentration but is also a function of the volume (quantity) of waste and its accessibility. A risk-informed approach to waste classification for near-surface disposal of low-level waste would consider the specific characteristics of the waste, the quantity of material, and the disposal system features that limit accessibility to the waste. NRC staff has developed example analytical approaches to estimate waste concentration, and therefore waste classification, for waste disposed in facilities or with configurations that were not anticipated when the regulation for the disposal of commercial low-level waste (i.e. 10 CFR Part 61) was developed. (authors)

Quantitative Attack Tree Analysis via Priced Timed Automata

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kumar, Rajesh; Ruijters, Enno Jozef Johannes; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Sankaranarayanan, Sriram; Vicario, Enrico

The success of a security attack crucially depends on the resources available to an attacker: time, budget, skill level, and risk appetite. Insight in these dependencies and the most vulnerable system parts is key to providing effective counter measures. This paper considers attack trees, one of the

Pooled versus separate measurements of tree-ring stable isotopes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorado Linan, Isabel, E-mail: isabel@gfz-potsdam.de [Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d' Ecologia, Diagonal 645, 08028, Barcelona (Spain); German Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Dendro Laboratory, Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam (Germany); Gutierrez, Emilia, E-mail: emgutierrez@ub.edu [Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d' Ecologia, Diagonal 645, 08028, Barcelona (Spain); Helle, Gerhard, E-mail: ghelle@gfz-potsdam.de [German Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Dendro Laboratory, Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam (Germany); Heinrich, Ingo, E-mail: heinrich@gfz-potsdam.de [German Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Dendro Laboratory, Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam (Germany); Andreu-Hayles, Laia, E-mail: laiandreu@ub.edu [Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d' Ecologia, Diagonal 645, 08028, Barcelona (Spain); Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades NY (United States); Planells, Octavi, E-mail: leocarpus@hotmail.com [Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d' Ecologia, Diagonal 645, 08028, Barcelona (Spain); Leuenberger, Markus, E-mail: leuenberger@climate.unibe.ch [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Oeschger Centre of Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zaehringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Buerger, Carmen, E-mail: buerger@gfz-potsdam.de [German Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Dendro Laboratory, Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam (Germany); Schleser, Gerhard, E-mail: schleser@gfz-potsdam.de [German Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Dendro Laboratory, Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam (Germany)

2011-05-01

{delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 18}O of tree rings contain time integrated information about the environmental conditions weighted by seasonal growth dynamics and are well established as sources of palaeoclimatic and ecophysiological data. Annually resolved isotope chronologies are frequently produced by pooling dated growth rings from several trees prior to the isotopic analyses. This procedure has the advantage of saving time and resources, but precludes from defining the isotopic error or statistical uncertainty related to the inter-tree variability. Up to now only a few studies have compared isotope series from pooled tree rings with isotopic measurements from individual trees. We tested whether or not the {delta}{sup 13}C and the {delta}{sup 18}O chronologies derived from pooled and from individual tree rings display significant differences at two locations from the Iberian Peninsula to assess advantages and constraints of both methodologies. The comparisons along the period 1900-2003 reveal a good agreement between pooled chronologies and the two mean master series which were created by averaging raw individual values (Mean) or by generating a mass calibrated mean (MassC). In most of the cases, pooled chronologies show high synchronicity with averaged individual samples at interannual scale but some differences also show up especially when comparing {delta}{sup 18}O decadal to multi-decadal variations. Moreover, differences in the first order autocorrelation among individuals may be obscured by pooling strategies. The lack of replication of pooled chronologies prevents detection of a bias due to a higher mass contribution of one sample but uncertainties associated with the analytical process itself, as sample inhomogeneity, seems to account for the observed differences. - Research Highlights: {yields} Pooled {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 18}O chronologies are expected to be similar to the mean. {yields} Empirical pooled chronologies {delta}{sup 13}C and

Pooled versus separate measurements of tree-ring stable isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorado Linan, Isabel; Gutierrez, Emilia; Helle, Gerhard; Heinrich, Ingo; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Planells, Octavi; Leuenberger, Markus; Buerger, Carmen; Schleser, Gerhard

2011-01-01

δ 13 C and δ 18 O of tree rings contain time integrated information about the environmental conditions weighted by seasonal growth dynamics and are well established as sources of palaeoclimatic and ecophysiological data. Annually resolved isotope chronologies are frequently produced by pooling dated growth rings from several trees prior to the isotopic analyses. This procedure has the advantage of saving time and resources, but precludes from defining the isotopic error or statistical uncertainty related to the inter-tree variability. Up to now only a few studies have compared isotope series from pooled tree rings with isotopic measurements from individual trees. We tested whether or not the δ 13 C and the δ 18 O chronologies derived from pooled and from individual tree rings display significant differences at two locations from the Iberian Peninsula to assess advantages and constraints of both methodologies. The comparisons along the period 1900-2003 reveal a good agreement between pooled chronologies and the two mean master series which were created by averaging raw individual values (Mean) or by generating a mass calibrated mean (MassC). In most of the cases, pooled chronologies show high synchronicity with averaged individual samples at interannual scale but some differences also show up especially when comparing δ 18 O decadal to multi-decadal variations. Moreover, differences in the first order autocorrelation among individuals may be obscured by pooling strategies. The lack of replication of pooled chronologies prevents detection of a bias due to a higher mass contribution of one sample but uncertainties associated with the analytical process itself, as sample inhomogeneity, seems to account for the observed differences. - Research Highlights: → Pooled δ 13 C and δ 18 O chronologies are expected to be similar to the mean. → Empirical pooled chronologies δ 13 C and δ 18 O and the mean show a high synchronicity. → Pooled chronologies differ

Flowering Trees

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 8 Issue 8 August 2003 pp 112-112 Flowering Trees. Zizyphus jujuba Lam. of Rhamnaceae · More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 8 Issue 9 September 2003 pp 97-97 Flowering Trees. Moringa oleifera · More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 8 Issue 10 October 2003 pp 100-100 Flowering Trees.

Embedding complete ternary tree in hypercubes using AVL trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.A. Choudum; I. Raman (Indhumathi)

2008-01-01

htmlabstractA complete ternary tree is a tree in which every non-leaf vertex has exactly three children. We prove that a complete ternary tree of height h, TTh, is embeddable in a hypercube of dimension . This result coincides with the result of [2]. However, in this paper, the embedding utilizes

Photo guide for estimating risk to hardwood trees during prescribed burning operations in eastern oak forests

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick H. Brose

2009-01-01

A field guide of 40 photographs of common hardwood trees of eastern oak forests and fuel loadings surrounding their bases. The guide contains instructions on how to rapidly assess a tree's likelihood to be damaged or killed by prescribed burning.

Ghost-tree: creating hybrid-gene phylogenetic trees for diversity analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Fouquier, Jennifer; Rideout, Jai Ram; Bolyen, Evan; Chase, John; Shiffer, Arron; McDonald, Daniel; Knight, Rob; Caporaso, J Gregory; Kelley, Scott T

2016-02-24

Fungi play critical roles in many ecosystems, cause serious diseases in plants and animals, and pose significant threats to human health and structural integrity problems in built environments. While most fungal diversity remains unknown, the development of PCR primers for the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) combined with next-generation sequencing has substantially improved our ability to profile fungal microbial diversity. Although the high sequence variability in the ITS region facilitates more accurate species identification, it also makes multiple sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis unreliable across evolutionarily distant fungi because the sequences are hard to align accurately. To address this issue, we created ghost-tree, a bioinformatics tool that integrates sequence data from two genetic markers into a single phylogenetic tree that can be used for diversity analyses. Our approach starts with a "foundation" phylogeny based on one genetic marker whose sequences can be aligned across organisms spanning divergent taxonomic groups (e.g., fungal families). Then, "extension" phylogenies are built for more closely related organisms (e.g., fungal species or strains) using a second more rapidly evolving genetic marker. These smaller phylogenies are then grafted onto the foundation tree by mapping taxonomic names such that each corresponding foundation-tree tip would branch into its new "extension tree" child. We applied ghost-tree to graft fungal extension phylogenies derived from ITS sequences onto a foundation phylogeny derived from fungal 18S sequences. Our analysis of simulated and real fungal ITS data sets found that phylogenetic distances between fungal communities computed using ghost-tree phylogenies explained significantly more variance than non-phylogenetic distances. The phylogenetic metrics also improved our ability to distinguish small differences (effect sizes) between microbial communities, though results were similar to non

Trees are good, but…

Science.gov (United States)

E.G. McPherson; F. Ferrini

2010-01-01

We know that “trees are good,” and most people believe this to be true. But if this is so, why are so many trees neglected, and so many tree wells empty? An individual’s attitude toward trees may result from their firsthand encounters with specific trees. Understanding how attitudes about trees are shaped, particularly aversion to trees, is critical to the business of...

Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávia T Martins-Bedê

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG. We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.

Multiple-purpose trees for pastoral farming in New Zealand: with emphasis on tree legumes. [Lucerne Tree: Medick Tree

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davies, D J.G.; Macfarlane, R P

1979-01-01

The potential for soil conservation and agroforestry of several native and exotic legumes is discussed. Flowering period, chemical composition of leaves/pods, hardiness to frost and drought, timber value, forage potential for livestock and bees, ornamental value and other products are tabulated with information on up to 38 species. Two low-growing species that have proved useful for slope stabilization as well as forage are tree lucerne (Cytisus palmensis) and tree medick (Medicago arborea), the latter being shrubby and more suitable for cold districts. Gleditsia triacanthos is recommended as a shade and fodder tree for farm pasture.

Shedding light on tree growth : ring analysis of juvenile tropical trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soliz Gamboa, C.C.

2010-01-01

In the understory of tropical forests light is believed to be the main limiting growth factor for the newly established trees. Trees growing in shade of the understory may experience periods of slow radial growth. It is expected that gaps created by tree or branch fall will provoke tree growth

Inferring species trees from incongruent multi-copy gene trees using the Robinson-Foulds distance

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Constructing species trees from multi-copy gene trees remains a challenging problem in phylogenetics. One difficulty is that the underlying genes can be incongruent due to evolutionary processes such as gene duplication and loss, deep coalescence, or lateral gene transfer. Gene tree estimation errors may further exacerbate the difficulties of species tree estimation. Results We present a new approach for inferring species trees from incongruent multi-copy gene trees that is based on a generalization of the Robinson-Foulds (RF) distance measure to multi-labeled trees (mul-trees). We prove that it is NP-hard to compute the RF distance between two mul-trees; however, it is easy to calculate this distance between a mul-tree and a singly-labeled species tree. Motivated by this, we formulate the RF problem for mul-trees (MulRF) as follows: Given a collection of multi-copy gene trees, find a singly-labeled species tree that minimizes the total RF distance from the input mul-trees. We develop and implement a fast SPR-based heuristic algorithm for the NP-hard MulRF problem. We compare the performance of the MulRF method (available at http://genome.cs.iastate.edu/CBL/MulRF/) with several gene tree parsimony approaches using gene tree simulations that incorporate gene tree error, gene duplications and losses, and/or lateral transfer. The MulRF method produces more accurate species trees than gene tree parsimony approaches. We also demonstrate that the MulRF method infers in minutes a credible plant species tree from a collection of nearly 2,000 gene trees. Conclusions Our new phylogenetic inference method, based on a generalized RF distance, makes it possible to quickly estimate species trees from large genomic data sets. Since the MulRF method, unlike gene tree parsimony, is based on a generic tree distance measure, it is appealing for analyses of genomic data sets, in which many processes such as deep coalescence, recombination, gene duplication and losses as

Statistical Approaches to Assess Biosimilarity from Analytical Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Burdick, Richard; Coffey, Todd; Gutka, Hiten; Gratzl, Gyöngyi; Conlon, Hugh D; Huang, Chi-Ting; Boyne, Michael; Kuehne, Henriette

2017-01-01

Protein therapeutics have unique critical quality attributes (CQAs) that define their purity, potency, and safety. The analytical methods used to assess CQAs must be able to distinguish clinically meaningful differences in comparator products, and the most important CQAs should be evaluated with the most statistical rigor. High-risk CQA measurements assess the most important attributes that directly impact the clinical mechanism of action or have known implications for safety, while the moderate- to low-risk characteristics may have a lower direct impact and thereby may have a broader range to establish similarity. Statistical equivalence testing is applied for high-risk CQA measurements to establish the degree of similarity (e.g., highly similar fingerprint, highly similar, or similar) of selected attributes. Notably, some high-risk CQAs (e.g., primary sequence or disulfide bonding) are qualitative (e.g., the same as the originator or not the same) and therefore not amenable to equivalence testing. For biosimilars, an important step is the acquisition of a sufficient number of unique originator drug product lots to measure the variability in the originator drug manufacturing process and provide sufficient statistical power for the analytical data comparisons. Together, these analytical evaluations, along with PK/PD and safety data (immunogenicity), provide the data necessary to determine if the totality of the evidence warrants a designation of biosimilarity and subsequent licensure for marketing in the USA. In this paper, a case study approach is used to provide examples of analytical similarity exercises and the appropriateness of statistical approaches for the example data.

Attack Tree Generation by Policy Invalidation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

2015-01-01

through brainstorming of experts. In this work we formalize attack tree generation including human factors; based on recent advances in system models we develop a technique to identify possible attacks analytically, including technical and human factors. Our systematic attack generation is based......Attacks on systems and organisations increasingly exploit human actors, for example through social engineering, complicating their formal treatment and automatic identification. Formalisation of human behaviour is difficult at best, and attacks on socio-technical systems are still mostly identified...... on invalidating policies in the system model by identifying possible sequences of actions that lead to an attack. The generated attacks are precise enough to illustrate the threat, and they are general enough to hide the details of individual steps....

Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Khaja, Nawal

2007-01-01

This is a thematic lesson plan for young learners about palm trees and the importance of taking care of them. The two part lesson teaches listening, reading and speaking skills. The lesson includes parts of a tree; the modal auxiliary, can; dialogues and a role play activity.

Spectra of chemical trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balasubramanian, K.

1982-01-01

A method is developed for obtaining the spectra of trees of NMR and chemical interests. The characteristic polynomials of branched trees can be obtained in terms of the characteristic polynomials of unbranched trees and branches by pruning the tree at the joints. The unbranched trees can also be broken down further until a tree containing just two vertices is obtained. The effectively reduces the order of the secular determinant of the tree used at the beginning to determinants of orders atmost equal to the number of vertices in the branch containing the largest number of vertices. An illustrative example of a NMR graph is given for which the 22 x 22 secular determinant is reduced to determinants of orders atmost 4 x 4 in just the second step of the algorithm. The tree pruning algorithm can be applied even to trees with no symmetry elements and such a factoring can be achieved. Methods developed here can be elegantly used to find if two trees are cospectral and to construct cospectral trees

The application of a decision tree to establish the parameters associated with hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Tayefi, Maryam; Esmaeili, Habibollah; Saberi Karimian, Maryam; Amirabadi Zadeh, Alireza; Ebrahimi, Mahmoud; Safarian, Mohammad; Nematy, Mohsen; Parizadeh, Seyed Mohammad Reza; Ferns, Gordon A; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid

2017-02-01

Hypertension is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The goal of this study was to establish the factors associated with hypertension by using a decision-tree algorithm as a supervised classification method of data mining. Data from a cross-sectional study were used in this study. A total of 9078 subjects who met the inclusion criteria were recruited. 70% of these subjects (6358 cases) were randomly allocated to the training dataset for the constructing of the decision-tree. The remaining 30% (2720 cases) were used as the testing dataset to evaluate the performance of decision-tree. Two models were evaluated in this study. In model I, age, gender, body mass index, marital status, level of education, occupation status, depression and anxiety status, physical activity level, smoking status, LDL, TG, TC, FBG, uric acid and hs-CRP were considered as input variables and in model II, age, gender, WBC, RBC, HGB, HCT MCV, MCH, PLT, RDW and PDW were considered as input variables. The validation of the model was assessed by constructing a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The prevalence rates of hypertension were 32% in our population. For the decision-tree model I, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for identifying the related risk factors of hypertension were 73%, 63%, 77% and 0.72, respectively. The corresponding values for model II were 70%, 61%, 74% and 0.68, respectively. We have developed a decision tree model to identify the risk factors associated with hypertension that maybe used to develop programs for hypertension management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrodynamics of isohydric and anisohydric trees: insights from models and measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Novick, K. A.; Oishi, A. C.; Roman, D. T.; Benson, M. C.; Miniat, C.

2016-12-01

In an effort to understand and predict the mechanisms that govern tree response to hydrologic stress, plant hydraulic theory, which classifies trees along a continuum of isohydric to anisohydric water use strategies, is increasingly being used. Isohydry maintains relatively constant leaf water potential during periods of water stress, promoting wide hydraulic safety margins that reduce the risk of xylem cavitation. In contrast, anisohydry allows leaf water potential to fall as soil water potential falls, but in doing so trees incur a greater risk of hydraulic failure. As a result, unique patterns of stomatal functioning between isohydric and anisohydric species are both predicted and observed in leaf-, tree-, and stand-level water use. We use a novel model formulation to examine the dynamics of three mechanisms that are potentially limiting to leaf-level gas exchange in trees during drought: (1) a `demand limitation' driven by an assumption of stomatal optimization of water loss and carbon uptake; (2) `hydraulic limitation' of water movement from the roots to the leaves; and (3) `non-stomatal' limitations imposed by declining leaf water status within the leaf. Model results suggest that species-specific `economics' of stomatal behavior may play an important role in differentiating species along the continuum of isohydric to anisohydric behavior; specifically, we show that non-stomatal and demand limitations may reduce stomatal conductance and increase leaf water potential, promoting wide safety margins characteristic of isohydric species. Direct comparisons of modeled and measured stomatal conductance further indicated that non-stomatal and demand limitations reproduced observed patterns of tree water use well for an isohydric species but that a hydraulic limitation likely applies in the case of an anisohydric species. This modeling framework used in concert with climate data may help land managers and scientists predict when and what forest species and communities

MeshTree: A Delay optimised Overlay Multicast Tree Building Protocol

OpenAIRE

Tan, Su-Wei; Waters, A. Gill; Crawford, John

2005-01-01

We study decentralised low delay degree-constrained overlay multicast tree construction for single source real-time applications. This optimisation problem is NP-hard even if computed centrally. We identify two problems in traditional distributed solutions, namely the greedy problem and delay-cost trade-off. By offering solutions to these problems, we propose a new self-organising distributed tree building protocol called MeshTree. The main idea is to embed the delivery tree in a degree-bound...

Minimum variance rooting of phylogenetic trees and implications for species tree reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Mai, Uyen; Sayyari, Erfan; Mirarab, Siavash

2017-01-01

Phylogenetic trees inferred using commonly-used models of sequence evolution are unrooted, but the root position matters both for interpretation and downstream applications. This issue has been long recognized; however, whether the potential for discordance between the species tree and gene trees impacts methods of rooting a phylogenetic tree has not been extensively studied. In this paper, we introduce a new method of rooting a tree based on its branch length distribution; our method, which minimizes the variance of root to tip distances, is inspired by the traditional midpoint rerooting and is justified when deviations from the strict molecular clock are random. Like midpoint rerooting, the method can be implemented in a linear time algorithm. In extensive simulations that consider discordance between gene trees and the species tree, we show that the new method is more accurate than midpoint rerooting, but its relative accuracy compared to using outgroups to root gene trees depends on the size of the dataset and levels of deviations from the strict clock. We show high levels of error for all methods of rooting estimated gene trees due to factors that include effects of gene tree discordance, deviations from the clock, and gene tree estimation error. Our simulations, however, did not reveal significant differences between two equivalent methods for species tree estimation that use rooted and unrooted input, namely, STAR and NJst. Nevertheless, our results point to limitations of existing scalable rooting methods.

Comparison of tree coring and soil gas sampling for screening of contaminated sites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mette Algreen; Stalder, Marcel; Riis, Charlotte

and then identify high risk areas. The uptake of BTEX into trees varies to a greater extent with the tree species and the site conditions than chlorinated solvents, which lead to greater uncertainty. Both methods have their advantages and disadvantages. Hence, the methods supplement each other. Based on results......Site characterization is often time consuming and a financial burden for the site owners, which raises a demand for rapid and inexpensive (pre)screening methods. Phytoscreening by tree coring has shown to be a useful tool to detect subsurface contamination, especially of chlorinated solvents...... suitable as initial screening methods for site characterization. The aim of this study is to compare tree coring and soil gas sampling to evaluate to which extent tree coring may supplement or substitute soil gas sampling as a site contaminant screening tool. And where both methods are feasible, evaluate...

Refining discordant gene trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Górecki, Pawel; Eulenstein, Oliver

2014-01-01

Evolutionary studies are complicated by discordance between gene trees and the species tree in which they evolved. Dealing with discordant trees often relies on comparison costs between gene and species trees, including the well-established Robinson-Foulds, gene duplication, and deep coalescence costs. While these costs have provided credible results for binary rooted gene trees, corresponding cost definitions for non-binary unrooted gene trees, which are frequently occurring in practice, are challenged by biological realism. We propose a natural extension of the well-established costs for comparing unrooted and non-binary gene trees with rooted binary species trees using a binary refinement model. For the duplication cost we describe an efficient algorithm that is based on a linear time reduction and also computes an optimal rooted binary refinement of the given gene tree. Finally, we show that similar reductions lead to solutions for computing the deep coalescence and the Robinson-Foulds costs. Our binary refinement of Robinson-Foulds, gene duplication, and deep coalescence costs for unrooted and non-binary gene trees together with the linear time reductions provided here for computing these costs significantly extends the range of trees that can be incorporated into approaches dealing with discordance.

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees.

Simple street tree sampling

Science.gov (United States)

David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; James Baldwin; Jerry. Bond

2015-01-01

Information on street trees is critical for management of this important resource. Sampling of street tree populations provides an efficient means to obtain street tree population information. Long-term repeat measures of street tree samples supply additional information on street tree changes and can be used to report damages from catastrophic events. Analyses of...

TreeFam: a curated database of phylogenetic trees of animal gene families

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Heng; Coghlan, Avril; Ruan, Jue

2006-01-01

TreeFam is a database of phylogenetic trees of gene families found in animals. It aims to develop a curated resource that presents the accurate evolutionary history of all animal gene families, as well as reliable ortholog and paralog assignments. Curated families are being added progressively......, based on seed alignments and trees in a similar fashion to Pfam. Release 1.1 of TreeFam contains curated trees for 690 families and automatically generated trees for another 11 646 families. These represent over 128 000 genes from nine fully sequenced animal genomes and over 45 000 other animal proteins...

The Mind of the Copaíba Tree: Notes on Extractivism, Animism, and Ontology from Southern Bahia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan DeVore

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article analyzes ritualized prescriptions for harvesting oleoresin or “oil” from the copaíba tree in Brazil. These harvesting prescriptions involve increasingly complex attributions of mind to the copaíba tree itself. The copaíba tree is widespread throughout the Americas, and for centuries has been well-known for the medicinal oil that can be extracted from its trunk. In Brazil, contemporary knowledge of the copaíba tree is bound up with colonial history and what were often destructive extractivist economies. Whereas historical accounts of the copaíba tree are often limited to mechanistic descriptions for extracting oil, this article examines attributions of mind that harvesters make to the copaíba tree. These attributions can be read from procedures for extracting oil. Such procedures are concerned with moon cycles, tree marking, sexual activity, and gaze. The article shows that such prescriptions have a wide transregional and interethnic distribution, from the Amazon Basin in northern Brazil to the Atlantic Forest on Bahia’s southern coast. New evidence from southern Bahia also involves prescriptions concerning speech and naming, which presuppose that the copaíba tree is sensitive to intentionality and human language. These mind attributions are inferred through pragmatic analysis of the (ontological presuppositions that are embedded by harvesting prescriptions. The contribution concludes with reflections on the implications of this presuppositional analytic approach for debates concerned with animism and the “ontological turn.”

A reliability-risk modelling of nuclear rad-waste facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehmann, P.H.; El-Bassioni, A.A.

1975-01-01

Rad-waste disposal systems of nuclear power sites are designed and operated to collect, delay, contain, and concentrate radioactive wastes from reactor plant processes such that on-site and off-site exposures to radiation are well below permissible limits. To assist the designer in achieving minimum release/exposure goals, a computerized reliability-risk model has been developed to simulate the rad-waste system. The objectives of the model are to furnish a practical tool for quantifying the effects of changes in system configuration, operation, and equipment, and for the identification of weak segments in the system design. Primarily, the model comprises a marriage of system analysis, reliability analysis, and release-risk assessment. Provisions have been included in the model to permit the optimization of the system design subject to constraints on cost and rad-releases. The system analysis phase involves the preparation of a physical and functional description of the rad-waste facility accompanied by the formation of a system tree diagram. The reliability analysis phase embodies the formulation of appropriate reliability models and the collection of model parameters. Release-risk assessment constitutes the analytical basis whereupon further system and reliability analyses may be warranted. Release-risk represents the potential for release of radioactivity and is defined as the product of an element's unreliability at time, t, and the radioactivity available for release in time interval, Δt. A computer code (RARISK) has been written to simulate the tree diagram of the rad-waste system. Reliability and release-risk results have been generated for cases which examined the process flow paths of typical rad-waste systems, the effects of repair and standby, the variations of equipment failure and repair rates, and changes in system configurations. The essential feature of this model is that a complex system like the rad-waste facility can be easily decomposed into its

Human Factors Reliability Analysis for Assuring Nuclear Safety Using Fuzzy Fault Tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisawy, E.A.-F. I.; Sallam, H.

2016-01-01

In order to ensure effective prevention of harmful events, the risk assessment process cannot ignore the role of humans in the dynamics of accidental events and thus the seriousness of the consequences that may derive from them. Human reliability analysis (HRA) involves the use of qualitative and quantitative methods to assess the human contribution to risk. HRA techniques have been developed in order to provide human error probability values associated with operators’ tasks to be included within the broader context of system risk assessment, and are aimed at reducing the probability of accidental events. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a graphical model that displays the various combinations of equipment failures and human errors that can result in the main system failure of interest. FTA is a risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an event. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing, and even if available, is subject to incompleteness and imprecision or vagueness. Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, FTA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. To solve this problem, qualitative justification in the context of failure possibilities can be used as alternative for quantitative justification. In this paper, we introduce the approach of fuzzy reliability as solution for fault tree analysis drawbacks. A new fuzzy fault tree method is proposed for the analysis of human reliability based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy operations t-norms, co-norms, defuzzification, and fuzzy failure probability. (author)

The Case for Visual Analytics of Arsenic Concentrations in Foods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omotayo R. Awofolu

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Arsenic is a naturally occurring toxic metal and its presence in food could be a potential risk to the health of both humans and animals. Prolonged ingestion of arsenic contaminated water may result in manifestations of toxicity in all systems of the body. Visual Analytics is a multidisciplinary field that is defined as the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces. The concentrations of arsenic vary in foods making it impractical and impossible to provide regulatory limit for each food. This review article presents a case for the use of visual analytics approaches to provide comparative assessment of arsenic in various foods. The topics covered include (i metabolism of arsenic in the human body; (ii arsenic concentrations in various foods; (ii factors affecting arsenic uptake in plants; (ii introduction to visual analytics; and (iv benefits of visual analytics for comparative assessment of arsenic concentration in foods. Visual analytics can provide an information superstructure of arsenic in various foods to permit insightful comparative risk assessment of the diverse and continually expanding data on arsenic in food groups in the context of country of study or origin, year of study, method of analysis and arsenic species.

Tree-space statistics and approximations for large-scale analysis of anatomical trees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feragen, Aasa; Owen, Megan; Petersen, Jens

2013-01-01

parametrize the relevant parts of tree-space well. Using the developed approximate statistics, we illustrate how the structure and geometry of airway trees vary across a population and show that airway trees with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease come from a different distribution in tree-space than...

Illustration of an analytical method for quantification of the safety of technical appliances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tegel, M.

1981-01-01

The safety analysis of technical products will in future be required more and more also for simple technical systems. The fault-tree analysis is a method for safety judgement used in particular in aviation and space engineering as well as in energy engineering. This analytical method can also be applied to simple technical constructions, as the article shows, using as example an acially rotatable load hook. (orig.) [de

Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

2013-11-01

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

Main-Memory Operation Buffering for Efficient R-Tree Update

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Christian Søndergaard; Saltenis, Simonas; Biveinis, Laurynas

2007-01-01

the buffering of update operations in main memory as well as the grouping of operations to reduce disk I/O. In particular, operations are performed in bulk so that multiple operations are able to share I/O. The paper presents an analytical cost model that is shown to be accurate by empirical studies...... the main memory that is indeed available, or do not support some of the standard index operations. Assuming a setting where the index updates need not be written to disk immediately, we propose an R-tree-based indexing technique that does not exhibit any of these drawbacks. This technique exploits...

Decision-Tree Program

Science.gov (United States)

Buntine, Wray

1994-01-01

IND computer program introduces Bayesian and Markov/maximum-likelihood (MML) methods and more-sophisticated methods of searching in growing trees. Produces more-accurate class-probability estimates important in applications like diagnosis. Provides range of features and styles with convenience for casual user, fine-tuning for advanced user or for those interested in research. Consists of four basic kinds of routines: data-manipulation, tree-generation, tree-testing, and tree-display. Written in C language.

Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance.

Science.gov (United States)

Eilmann, Britta; Rigling, Andreas

2012-02-01

Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree species' potential for surviving future aggravated environmental conditions is rather demanding. The aim of this study was to find a tree-ring-based method suitable for identifying very drought-tolerant species, particularly potential substitute species for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais. In this inner-Alpine valley, Scots pine used to be the dominating species for dry forests, but today it suffers from high drought-induced mortality. We investigate the growth response of two native tree species, Scots pine and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), and two non-native species, black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. var. menziesii), to drought. This involved analysing how the radial increment of these species responded to increasing water shortage (abandonment of irrigation) and to increasingly frequent drought years. Black pine and Douglas fir are able to cope with drought better than Scots pine and larch, as they show relatively high radial growth even after irrigation has been stopped and a plastic growth response to drought years. European larch does not seem to be able to cope with these dry conditions as it lacks the ability to recover from drought years. The analysis of trees' short-term response to extreme climate events seems to be the most promising and suitable method for detecting how tolerant a tree species is towards drought. However, combining all the methods used in this study provides a complete picture of how water shortage could limit species.

Are trees long-lived?

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin T. Smith

2009-01-01

Trees and tree care can capture the best of people's motivations and intentions. Trees are living memorials that help communities heal at sites of national tragedy, such as Oklahoma City and the World Trade Center. We mark the places of important historical events by the trees that grew nearby even if the original tree, such as the Charter Oak in Connecticut or...

Meta-analysis Reveals that Hydraulic Traits Explain Cross-Species Patterns of Drought-Induced Tree Mortality across the Globe

Science.gov (United States)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

Drought-induced tree mortality has been observed globally and is expected to increase under climate change scenarios, with large potential consequences for the terrestrial carbon sink. Predicting mortality across species is crucial for assessing the effects of climate extremes on forest community biodiversity, composition, and carbon sequestration. However, the physiological traits associated with elevated risk of mortality in diverse ecosystems remain unknown, though these could greatly improve understanding and prediction of tree mortality in forests. We performed a meta-analysis on species' mortality rates across 475 species from 33 studies around the globe to assess which traits determine a species' mortality risk. We found that species-specific mortality anomalies from community mortality rate in a given drought were associated with plant hydraulic traits. Across all species, mortality was best predicted by a low hydraulic safety margin - the difference between typical minimum xylem water potential and that causing xylem dysfunction - and xylem vulnerability to embolism. Angiosperms and gymnosperms experienced roughly equal mortality risk. Our results provide broad support that hydraulic traits capture key mechanisms determining tree death and highlight that physiological traits can improve vegetation models' prediction of tree mortality during climate extremes. We conclude with thoughts about a revised framework for future tree mortality research.

Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J

2016-02-01

Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret representation. Within the European Society of Pediatric Nephrology/European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ESPN/ERA-EDTA) Registry data we identified paediatric patient groups with specific profiles for 5-year renal graft survival. Two analyses were performed, including (i) parameters known at time of transplantation and (ii) additional clinical measurements obtained early after transplantation. The identified subgroups were added as covariates in two survival models. The prognostic performance of the models was tested and compared with conventional Cox regression analyses. The first analysis included 5275 paediatric renal transplants. The best 5-year graft survival (90.4%) was found among patients who received a renal graft as a pre-emptive transplantation or after short-term dialysis (2.2 years). The Cox model including both pre-transplant factors and tree subgroups had a significantly better predictive performance than conventional Cox regression (P 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and dialysis 20 months). Also in this case combining tree findings and clinical factors improved the predictive performance as compared with conventional Cox model models (P tree model to be an accurate and attractive tool to predict graft failure for patients with specific characteristics. This may aid the evaluation of individual graft prognosis and thereby the design of measures to improve graft survival in the poor prognosis groups. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Proximate content and lipid profile of seeds from Rapanea melanophloeos (The Cape Beech) tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lotier, N.; Chivandi, E.; Lembede, B.W.; Ibrahim, K.G.; Nyakudya, T.T.

2017-01-01

Rapanea melanophloeos(Cape beech)is a fruit-bearing tree indigenous to Southern Africa which produces edible fruit. Seed samples obtained from ripe fruit of the Cape beech trees had their proximate analysis and lipid profiling done. The dry matter and ash contributed 91.29 +- 0.00 %, 1.50 +- 0.01 % of the mass of the seed. Whilst the other proximate analytes namely crude fibre, crude protein and ether extract made up 5.71 +- 0.43 %, 10.50 +- 0.49 % and 4.75 +- 0.09 percentage of the mass of the seeds respectively. The fatty acid profile of the seed oil revealed Linoleic acid (50.43 +- 0.38 %) to be the most dominant. R. melanophloeos seeds are not a viable source of nutrients. (author)

There's Life in Hazard Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Mary Torsello; Toni McLellan

The goals of hazard tree management programs are to maximize public safety and maintain a healthy sustainable tree resource. Although hazard tree management frequently targets removal of trees or parts of trees that attract wildlife, it can take into account a diversity of tree values. With just a little extra planning, hazard tree management can be highly beneficial...

Dynamic reliability and risk assessment of the accident localization system of the Ignalina NPP RBMK-1500 reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopustinskas, V.; Augutis, J.; Rimkevicius, S.

2005-01-01

The paper presents reliability and risk analysis of the RBMK-1500 reactor accident localization system (ALS) (confinement), which prevents radioactive releases to the environment. Reliability of the system was estimated and compared by two methods: the conventional fault tree method and an innovative dynamic reliability model, based on stochastic differential equations. Frequency of radioactive release through ALS was also estimated. The results of the study indicate that conventional fault tree modeling techniques in this case apply high degree of conservatism in the system reliability estimates. One of the purposes of the ALS reliability study was to demonstrate advantages of the dynamic reliability analysis against the conventional fault/event tree methods. The Markovian framework to deal with dynamic aspects of system behavior is presented. Although not analyzed in detail, the framework is also capable of accounting for non-constant component failure rates. Computational methods are proposed to solve stochastic differential equations, including analytical solution, which is possible only for relatively small and simple systems. Other numerical methods, like Monte Carlo and numerical schemes of differential equations are analyzed and compared. The study is finalized with concluding remarks regarding both the studied system reliability and computational methods used

To core, or not to core: the impact of coring on tree health and a best-practice framework for collecting dendrochronological information from living trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsen, Edward W J; Sitzia, Tommaso; Webber, Bruce L

2016-11-01

Trees are natural repositories of valuable environmental information that is preserved in the growth and structure of their stems, branches and roots. Dendrochronological analyses, based on the counting, crossdating and characterisation of incrementally formed wood rings, offer powerful insights for diverse fields including ecology, climatology and archaeology. The application of this toolset is likely to increase in popularity over coming decades due to advances in the field and a reduction in the cost of analyses. In research settings where the continued value of living trees subject to dendrochronological investigation is important, the use of an increment bore corer to extract trunk tissue is considered the best option to minimise negative impacts on tree health (e.g. stress and fitness). A small and fragmented body of literature, however, reports significant after-effects, and in some cases fatal outcomes, from this sampling technique. As it stands, the literature documenting increment bore coring (IBC) impacts lacks experimental consistency and is poorly replicated, making it difficult for prospective users of the method to assess likely tree responses to coring. This paucity of information has the potential to lead to destructive misuse of the method and also limits its safe implementation in circumstances where the risk of impacts may be appropriate. If IBC is to fulfil its potential as a method of choice across research fields, then we must first address our limited understanding of IBC impacts and provide a framework for its appropriate future use. Firstly, we review the historical context of studies examining the impacts of IBC on trees to identify known patterns, focal issues and biases in existing knowledge. IBC wound responses, particularly those that impact on lumber quality, have been the primary focus of prior studies. No universal treatment was identified that conclusively improved wound healing and few studies have linked wound responses to tree

Analysis of powered two-wheeler crashes in Italy by classification trees and rules discovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Montella, Alfonso; Aria, Massimo; D'Ambrosio, Antonio; Mauriello, Filomena

2012-11-01

Aim of the study was the analysis of powered two-wheeler (PTW) crashes in Italy in order to detect interdependence as well as dissimilarities among crash characteristics and provide insights for the development of safety improvement strategies focused on PTWs. At this aim, data mining techniques were used to analyze the data relative to the 254,575 crashes involving PTWs occurred in Italy in the period 2006-2008. Classification trees analysis and rules discovery were performed. Tree-based methods are non-linear and non-parametric data mining tools for supervised classification and regression problems. They do not require a priori probabilistic knowledge about the phenomena under studying and consider conditional interactions among input data. Rules discovery is the identification of sets of items (i.e., crash patterns) that occur together in a given event (i.e., a crash in our study) more often than they would if they were independent of each other. Thus, the method can detect interdependence among crash characteristics. Due to the large number of patterns considered, both methods suffer from an extreme risk of finding patterns that appear due to chance alone. To overcome this problem, in our study we randomly split the sample data in two data sets and used well-established statistical practices to evaluate the statistical significance of the results. Both the classification trees and the rules discovery were effective in providing meaningful insights about PTW crash characteristics and their interdependencies. Even though in several cases different crash characteristics were highlighted, the results of the two the analysis methods were never contradictory. Furthermore, most of the findings of this study were consistent with the results of previous studies which used different analytical techniques, such as probabilistic models of crash injury severity. Basing on the analysis results, engineering countermeasures and policy initiatives to reduce PTW injuries and

Fast Tree: Computing Large Minimum-Evolution Trees with Profiles instead of a Distance Matrix

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

N. Price, Morgan; S. Dehal, Paramvir; P. Arkin, Adam

2009-07-31

Gene families are growing rapidly, but standard methods for inferring phylogenies do not scale to alignments with over 10,000 sequences. We present FastTree, a method for constructing large phylogenies and for estimating their reliability. Instead of storing a distance matrix, FastTree stores sequence profiles of internal nodes in the tree. FastTree uses these profiles to implement neighbor-joining and uses heuristics to quickly identify candidate joins. FastTree then uses nearest-neighbor interchanges to reduce the length of the tree. For an alignment with N sequences, L sites, and a different characters, a distance matrix requires O(N^2) space and O(N^2 L) time, but FastTree requires just O( NLa + N sqrt(N) ) memory and O( N sqrt(N) log(N) L a ) time. To estimate the tree's reliability, FastTree uses local bootstrapping, which gives another 100-fold speedup over a distance matrix. For example, FastTree computed a tree and support values for 158,022 distinct 16S ribosomal RNAs in 17 hours and 2.4 gigabytes of memory. Just computing pairwise Jukes-Cantor distances and storing them, without inferring a tree or bootstrapping, would require 17 hours and 50 gigabytes of memory. In simulations, FastTree was slightly more accurate than neighbor joining, BIONJ, or FastME; on genuine alignments, FastTree's topologies had higher likelihoods. FastTree is available at http://microbesonline.org/fasttree.

TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dunscombe, P. [University of Calgary (Canada)

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunscombe, P.

2015-01-01

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to

TreeRipper web application: towards a fully automated optical tree recognition software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hughes Joseph

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Relationships between species, genes and genomes have been printed as trees for over a century. Whilst this may have been the best format for exchanging and sharing phylogenetic hypotheses during the 20th century, the worldwide web now provides faster and automated ways of transferring and sharing phylogenetic knowledge. However, novel software is needed to defrost these published phylogenies for the 21st century. Results TreeRipper is a simple website for the fully-automated recognition of multifurcating phylogenetic trees (http://linnaeus.zoology.gla.ac.uk/~jhughes/treeripper/. The program accepts a range of input image formats (PNG, JPG/JPEG or GIF. The underlying command line c++ program follows a number of cleaning steps to detect lines, remove node labels, patch-up broken lines and corners and detect line edges. The edge contour is then determined to detect the branch length, tip label positions and the topology of the tree. Optical Character Recognition (OCR is used to convert the tip labels into text with the freely available tesseract-ocr software. 32% of images meeting the prerequisites for TreeRipper were successfully recognised, the largest tree had 115 leaves. Conclusions Despite the diversity of ways phylogenies have been illustrated making the design of a fully automated tree recognition software difficult, TreeRipper is a step towards automating the digitization of past phylogenies. We also provide a dataset of 100 tree images and associated tree files for training and/or benchmarking future software. TreeRipper is an open source project licensed under the GNU General Public Licence v3.

Selection the Optimum Suppliers Compound Using a Mixed Model of MADM and Fault Tree Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meysam Azimian

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach of MADM and fault tree analysis (FTA is provided for determining the most reliable combination of suppliers for a strategic product in IUT University. At first, risks of suppliers is estimated by defining the indices for evaluating them, determining their relative status indices and using satisfying and SAW methods. Then, intrinsic risks of utilized equipments in the products are qualified and the final integrated risk for equipments is determined. Finally, through all the different scenarios, the best composition of equipment suppliers is selected by defining the palpable top events and fault tree analysis. The contribution of this paper is about proposing an integrated method of MADM and FTA to determine the most reliable suppliers in order to minimize the final risk of providing a product.

Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol

2008-01-01

Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

Science.gov (United States)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

MixtureTree annotator: a program for automatic colorization and visual annotation of MixtureTree.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu-Chuan Chen

Full Text Available The MixtureTree Annotator, written in JAVA, allows the user to automatically color any phylogenetic tree in Newick format generated from any phylogeny reconstruction program and output the Nexus file. By providing the ability to automatically color the tree by sequence name, the MixtureTree Annotator provides a unique advantage over any other programs which perform a similar function. In addition, the MixtureTree Annotator is the only package that can efficiently annotate the output produced by MixtureTree with mutation information and coalescent time information. In order to visualize the resulting output file, a modified version of FigTree is used. Certain popular methods, which lack good built-in visualization tools, for example, MEGA, Mesquite, PHY-FI, TreeView, treeGraph and Geneious, may give results with human errors due to either manually adding colors to each node or with other limitations, for example only using color based on a number, such as branch length, or by taxonomy. In addition to allowing the user to automatically color any given Newick tree by sequence name, the MixtureTree Annotator is the only method that allows the user to automatically annotate the resulting tree created by the MixtureTree program. The MixtureTree Annotator is fast and easy-to-use, while still allowing the user full control over the coloring and annotating process.

On Determining if Tree-based Networks Contain Fixed Trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Anaya, Maria; Anipchenko-Ulaj, Olga; Ashfaq, Aisha; Chiu, Joyce; Kaiser, Mahedi; Ohsawa, Max Shoji; Owen, Megan; Pavlechko, Ella; St John, Katherine; Suleria, Shivam; Thompson, Keith; Yap, Corrine

2016-05-01

We address an open question of Francis and Steel about phylogenetic networks and trees. They give a polynomial time algorithm to decide if a phylogenetic network, N, is tree-based and pose the problem: given a fixed tree T and network N, is N based on T? We show that it is [Formula: see text]-hard to decide, by reduction from 3-Dimensional Matching (3DM) and further that the problem is fixed-parameter tractable.

Quantile arithmetic methodology for uncertainty propagation in fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdelhai, M.; Ragheb, M.

1986-01-01

A methodology based on quantile arithmetic, the probabilistic analog to interval analysis, is proposed for the computation of uncertainties propagation in fault tree analysis. The basic events' continuous probability density functions (pdf's) are represented by equivalent discrete distributions by dividing them into a number of quantiles N. Quantile arithmetic is then used to performthe binary arithmetical operations corresponding to the logical gates in the Boolean expression of the top event expression of a given fault tree. The computational advantage of the present methodology as compared with the widely used Monte Carlo method was demonstrated for the cases of summation of M normal variables through the efficiency ratio defined as the product of the labor and error ratios. The efficiency ratio values obtained by the suggested methodology for M = 2 were 2279 for N = 5, 445 for N = 25, and 66 for N = 45 when compared with the results for 19,200 Monte Carlo samples at the 40th percentile point. Another advantage of the approach is that the exact analytical value of the median is always obtained for the top event

Diversity makes a difference: Farmers managing inter- and intra-specific tree species diversity in Meru Kenya

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lengkeek, A.G.

2003-01-01

Farmers plant trees in pursuit of their livelihood goals of income generation, risk management, household food security and optimum use of available land, labour and capital. Trees also play a crucial role in the cultural life of people. The many products, services and roles needed by people to be

Whole-tree distribution and temporal variation of non-structural carbohydrates in broadleaf evergreen trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Merryn G; Miller, Rebecca E; Arndt, Stefan K; Kasel, Sabine; Bennett, Lauren T

2018-04-01

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) form a fundamental yet poorly quantified carbon pool in trees. Studies of NSC seasonality in forest trees have seldom measured whole-tree NSC stocks and allocation among organs, and are not representative of all tree functional types. Non-structural carbohydrate research has primarily focussed on broadleaf deciduous and coniferous evergreen trees with distinct growing seasons, while broadleaf evergreen trees remain under-studied despite their different growth phenology. We measured whole-tree NSC allocation and temporal variation in Eucalyptus obliqua L'Hér., a broadleaf evergreen tree species typically occurring in mixed-age temperate forests, which has year-round growth and the capacity to resprout after fire. Our overarching objective was to improve the empirical basis for understanding the functional importance of NSC allocation and stock changes at the tree- and organ-level in this tree functional type. Starch was the principal storage carbohydrate and was primarily stored in the stem and roots of young (14-year-old) trees rather than the lignotuber, which did not appear to be a specialized starch storage organ. Whole-tree NSC stocks were depleted during spring and summer due to significant decreases in starch mass in the roots and stem, seemingly to support root and crown growth but potentially exacerbated by water stress in summer. Seasonality of stem NSCs differed between young and mature trees, and was not synchronized with stem basal area increments in mature trees. Our results suggest that the relative magnitude of seasonal NSC stock changes could vary with tree growth stage, and that the main drivers of NSC fluctuations in broadleaf evergreen trees in temperate biomes could be periodic disturbances such as summer drought and fire, rather than growth phenology. These results have implications for understanding post-fire tree recovery via resprouting, and for incorporating NSC pools into carbon models of mixed

The effect of contaminated groundwater on tree growth: A tree-ring analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LeBlanc, D.C.; Loehle, C.

1990-10-01

A study was conducted on the effect of contaminated groundwater seepage on tree growth downslope from F- and H-Area seepage basins of the Savannah River Site. Trees in wetlands along Four Mile Creek began to show localized stress and mortality in the late 1970s. Extreme winter temperatures and high rainfall were ruled out as potential causal factors of tree stress. Drought was shown to affect trees in both contaminated and uncontaminated zones, but trees in uncontaminated areas exhibit better recovery after drought than trees in contaminated areas. Pollution-mediated alteration of soil acidity and aluminum, sodium, and heavy metal concentrations likely acted to predispose trees to decline, with severe drought acting as the trigger for decline initiation and tree death. Thus, a moderate pollution loading, not sufficient to cause visible damage of itself, may create conditions in which sudden, severe decline could result from natural stresses. This mechanism of forest decline is common, and should be considered in evaluations of the impact of pollution on wetland forest systems. 28 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs

SILVA tree viewer: interactive web browsing of the SILVA phylogenetic guide trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Beccati, Alan; Gerken, Jan; Quast, Christian; Yilmaz, Pelin; Glöckner, Frank Oliver

2017-09-30

Phylogenetic trees are an important tool to study the evolutionary relationships among organisms. The huge amount of available taxa poses difficulties in their interactive visualization. This hampers the interaction with the users to provide feedback for the further improvement of the taxonomic framework. The SILVA Tree Viewer is a web application designed for visualizing large phylogenetic trees without requiring the download of any software tool or data files. The SILVA Tree Viewer is based on Web Geographic Information Systems (Web-GIS) technology with a PostgreSQL backend. It enables zoom and pan functionalities similar to Google Maps. The SILVA Tree Viewer enables access to two phylogenetic (guide) trees provided by the SILVA database: the SSU Ref NR99 inferred from high-quality, full-length small subunit sequences, clustered at 99% sequence identity and the LSU Ref inferred from high-quality, full-length large subunit sequences. The Tree Viewer provides tree navigation, search and browse tools as well as an interactive feedback system to collect any kinds of requests ranging from taxonomy to data curation and improving the tool itself.

Comparing alternative tree canopy cover estimates derived from digital aerial photography and field-based assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Tracey S. Frescino; Gretchen G. Moisen

2012-01-01

A spatially-explicit representation of live tree canopy cover, such as the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) percent tree canopy cover layer, is a valuable tool for many applications, such as defining forest land, delineating wildlife habitat, estimating carbon, and modeling fire risk and behavior. These layers are generated by predictive models wherein their accuracy...

An analytical model of stand dynamics as a function of tree growth, mortality and recruitment: the shade tolerance-stand structure hypothesis revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Zavala, Miguel A; Angulo, Oscar; Bravo de la Parra, Rafael; López-Marcos, Juan C

2007-02-07

Light competition and interspecific differences in shade tolerance are considered key determinants of forest stand structure and dynamics. Specifically two main stand diameter distribution types as a function of shade tolerance have been proposed based on empirical observations. All-aged stands of shade tolerant species tend to have steeply descending, monotonic diameter distributions (inverse J-shaped curves). Shade intolerant species in contrast typically exhibit normal (unimodal) tree diameter distributions due to high mortality rates of smaller suppressed trees. In this study we explore the generality of this hypothesis which implies a causal relationship between light competition or shade tolerance and stand structure. For this purpose we formulate a partial differential equation system of stand dynamics as a function of individual tree growth, recruitment and mortality which allows us to explore possible individual-based mechanisms--e.g. light competition-underlying observed patterns of stand structure--e.g. unimodal or inverse J-shaped equilibrium diameter curves. We find that contrary to expectations interspecific differences in growth patterns can result alone in any of the two diameter distributions types observed in the field. In particular, slow growing species can present unimodal equilibrium curves even in the absence of light competition. Moreover, light competition and shade intolerance evaluated both at the tree growth and mortality stages did not have a significant impact on stand structure that tended to converge systematically towards an inverse J-shaped curves for most tree growth scenarios. Realistic transient stand dynamics for even aged stands of shade intolerant species (unimodal curves) were only obtained when recruitment was completely suppressed, providing further evidence on the critical role played by juvenile stages of tree development (e.g. the sampling stage) on final forest structure and composition. The results also point out the

Analytic Bayesian solution of the two-stage poisson-type problem in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frohner, F.H.

1985-01-01

The basic purpose of probabilistic risk analysis is to make inferences about the probabilities of various postulated events, with an account of all relevant information such as prior knowledge and operating experience with the specific system under study, as well as experience with other similar systems. Estimation of the failure rate of a Poisson-type system leads to an especially simple Bayesian solution in closed form if the prior probabilty implied by the invariance properties of the problem is properly taken into account. This basic simplicity persists if a more realistic prior, representing order of magnitude knowledge of the rate parameter, is employed instead. Moreover, the more realistic prior allows direct incorporation of experience gained from other similar systems, without need to postulate a statistical model for an underlying ensemble. The analytic formalism is applied to actual nuclear reactor data

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tree-Based Models for Multi-Variate Flood Damage Assessment in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. In Australia, physical losses caused by floods are commonly estimated by stage-damage functions. These methods usually consider only the depth of the water and the type of buildings at risk. However, flood damage is a complicated process, and it is dependent on a variety of factors which are rarely taken into account. This study explores the interaction, importance, and influence of water depth, flow velocity, water contamination, precautionary measures, emergency measures, flood experience, floor area, building value, building quality, and socioeconomic status. The study uses tree-based models (regression trees and bagging decision trees and a dataset collected from 2012 to 2013 flood events in Queensland, which includes information on structural damages, impact parameters, and resistance variables. The tree-based approaches show water depth, floor area, precautionary measures, building value, and building quality to be important damage-influencing parameters. Furthermore, the performance of the tree-based models is validated and contrasted with the outcomes of a multi-parameter loss function (FLFArs from Australia. The tree-based models are shown to be more accurate than the stage-damage function. Consequently, considering more parameters and taking advantage of tree-based models is recommended. The outcome is important for improving established Australian flood loss models and assisting decision-makers and insurance companies dealing with flood risk assessment.

D2-tree

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Sioutas, Spyros; Pantazos, Kostas

2015-01-01

We present a new overlay, called the Deterministic Decentralized tree (D2-tree). The D2-tree compares favorably to other overlays for the following reasons: (a) it provides matching and better complexities, which are deterministic for the supported operations; (b) the management of nodes (peers...

Phylogenetic trees

OpenAIRE

Baños, Hector; Bushek, Nathaniel; Davidson, Ruth; Gross, Elizabeth; Harris, Pamela E.; Krone, Robert; Long, Colby; Stewart, Allen; Walker, Robert

2016-01-01

We introduce the package PhylogeneticTrees for Macaulay2 which allows users to compute phylogenetic invariants for group-based tree models. We provide some background information on phylogenetic algebraic geometry and show how the package PhylogeneticTrees can be used to calculate a generating set for a phylogenetic ideal as well as a lower bound for its dimension. Finally, we show how methods within the package can be used to compute a generating set for the join of any two ideals.

Risk assessment using Analytical Hierarchy Process - Development and evaluation of a new computer-based tool; Riskvaerdering med Analytical Hierarchy Process - Utveckling och utprovning av ett nytt datorbaserat verktyg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ritchey, Tom (Swedish Defence Research Agency, Stockholm (Sweden))

2008-11-15

Risk analysis concerning the management of contaminated areas involves comparing and evaluating the relationship between ecological, technical, economic and other factors, in order to determine a reasonable level of remediation. Risk analysis of this kind is a relatively new phenomenon. In order to develop methodology in this area, the Sustainable Remediation program contributes both to comprehensive risk analysis projects and to projects concentrating on specific aspects of remediation risk analysis. In the project described in this report, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) was given a grant by the Sustainable Remediation program to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to develop a computer-aided instrument to support remediation risk analysis. AHP is one of several so-called multi-criteria decision support methods. These methods are applied in order to systematically compare and evaluate different solutions or measures, when there are many different goal criteria involved. Such criteria can be both quantitative and qualitative. The project has resulted in the development of a computer-aided instrument which can be employed to give a better structure, consistency and traceability to risk analyses for the remediation of contaminated areas. Project was carried out in two phases with two different working groups. The first phase involved the development of a generic base-model for remediation risk analysis. This was performed by a 'development group'. The second phase entailed the testing of the generic model in a specific, on-going remediation project. This was performed by a 'test group'. The remediation project in question concerned the decontamination of a closed-down sawmill in Vaeckelsaang, in the Swedish municipality of Tingsryd

German risk study, phase B: Results of the event tree and fault tree analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoertner, H.

1987-01-01

This paper deals with the most important results of the level 1 analysis performed in Phase B of the German Risk Study and with the insights it provided. The question is raised, to what extent the results of risk analyses can be verified against available operating experience. In this respect the results of the German Risk Study will be compared with the estimates of the German Precursor Study. Finally, the results of the German investigations are briefly compared with the results of recent U.S. risk analyses. (orig.)

Probabilistic Properties of Rectilinear Steiner Minimal Trees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. N. Salnikov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This work concerns the properties of Steiner minimal trees for the manhattan plane in the context of introducing a probability measure. This problem is important because exact algorithms to solve the Steiner problem are computationally expensive (NP-hard and the solution (especially in the case of big number of points to be connected has a diversity of practical applications. That is why the work considers a possibility to rank the possible topologies of the minimal trees with respect to a probability of their usage. For this, the known facts about the structural properties of minimal trees for selected metrics have been analyzed to see their usefulness for the problem in question. For the small amount of boundary (fixed vertices, the paper offers a way to introduce a probability measure as a corollary of proved theorem about some structural properties of the minimal trees.This work is considered to further the previous similar activity concerning a problem of searching for minimal fillings, and it is a door opener to the more general (complicated task. The stated method demonstrates the possibility to reach the final result analytically, which gives a chance of its applicability to the case of the bigger number of boundary vertices (probably, with the use of computer engineering.The introducing definition of an essential Steiner point allowed a considerable restriction of the ambiguity of initial problem solution and, at the same time, comparison of such an approach with more classical works in the field concerned. The paper also lists main barriers of classical approaches, preventing their use for the task of introducing a probability measure.In prospect, application areas of the described method are expected to be wider both in terms of system enlargement (the number of boundary vertices and in terms of other metric spaces (the Euclidean case is of especial interest. The main interest is to find the classes of topologies with significantly

Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

Science.gov (United States)

Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

2011-06-01

Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

Decisions through data: analytics in healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Mary J

2014-01-01

The amount of data in healthcare is increasing at an astonishing rate. However, in general, the industry has not deployed the level of data management and analysis necessary to make use of those data. As a result, healthcare executives face the risk of being overwhelmed by a flood of unusable data. In this essay I argue that, in order to extract actionable information, leaders must take advantage of the promise of data analytics. Small data, predictive modeling expansion, and real-time analytics are three forms of data analytics. On the basis of my analysis for this study, I recommend all three for adoption. Recognizing the uniqueness of each organization's situation, I also suggest that practices, hospitals, and healthcare systems examine small data and conduct real-time analytics and that large-scale organizations managing populations of patients adopt predictive modeling. I found that all three solutions assist in the collection, management, and analysis of raw data to improve the quality of care and decrease costs.

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for examining healthcare professionals' assessments of risk factors. The relative importance of risk factors for falls in community-dwelling older people.

Science.gov (United States)

Pecchia, L; Bath, P A; Pendleton, N; Bracale, M

2011-01-01

A gap exists between evidence-based medicine and clinical-practice. Every day, healthcare professionals (HCPs) combine empirical evidence and subjective experience in order to maximize the effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, it is important to understand how HCPs interpret the research evidence and apply it in everyday practice. We focused on the prevention of falls, a common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life, for which there is a wide range of known risk factors. To use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to investigate the opinions of HCPs in prioritizing risk factors for preventing falls. We used the AHP to develop a hierarchy of risk factors for falls based on the knowledge and experience of experts. We submitted electronic questionnaires via the web, in order to reach a wider number of respondents. With a web service, we pooled the results and weighted the coherence and the experience of respondents. Overall, 232 respondents participated in the study: 32 in the technical pilot study, nine in the scientific pilot study and 191 respondents in the main study. We identified a hierarchy of 35 risk factors, organized in two categories and six sub-categories. The hierarchy of risk factors provides further insights into clinicians' perceptions of risk factors for falls. This hierarchy helps understand the relative importance that clinicians place on risk factors for falls in older people and why evidence-based guidelines are not always followed. This information may be helpful in improving intervention programs and in understanding how clinicians prioritize multiple risk factors in individual patients. The AHP method allows the opinions of HCPs to be investigated, giving appropriate weight to their coherence, background and experience.

Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

Covering tree with stars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baumbach, Jan; Guo, Jiong; Ibragimov, Rashid

2015-01-01

We study the tree edit distance problem with edge deletions and edge insertions as edit operations. We reformulate a special case of this problem as Covering Tree with Stars (CTS): given a tree T and a set of stars, can we connect the stars in by adding edges between them such that the resulting...... tree is isomorphic to T? We prove that in the general setting, CST is NP-complete, which implies that the tree edit distance considered here is also NP-hard, even when both input trees having diameters bounded by 10. We also show that, when the number of distinct stars is bounded by a constant k, CTS...

Automated fault tree analysis: the GRAFTER system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sancaktar, S.; Sharp, D.R.

1985-01-01

An inherent part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is the construction and analysis of detailed fault trees. For this purpose, a fault tree computer graphics code named GRAFTER has been developed. The code system centers around the GRAFTER code. This code is used interactively to construct, store, update and print fault trees of small or large sizes. The SIMON code is used to provide data for the basic event probabilities. ENCODE is used to process the GRAFTER files to prepare input for the WAMCUT code. WAMCUT is used to quantify the top event probability and to identify the cutsets. This code system has been extensively used in various PRA projects. It has resulted in reduced manpower costs, increased QA capability, ease of documentation and it has simplified sensitivity analyses. Because of its automated nature, it is also suitable for LIVING PRA Studies which require updating and modifications during the lifetime of the plant. Brief descriptions and capabilities of the GRAFTER, SIMON and ENCODE codes are provided; an application of the GRAFTER system is outlined; and conclusions and comments on the code system are given

Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

1987-01-01

The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

Trees in the city: valuing street trees in Portland, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

G.H. Donovan; D.T. Butry

2010-01-01

We use a hedonic price model to simultaneously estimate the effects of street trees on the sales price and the time-on-market (TOM) of houses in Portland. Oregon. On average, street trees add $8,870 to sales price and reduce TOM by 1.7 days. In addition, we found that the benefits of street trees spill over to neighboring houses. Because the provision and maintenance...

Urban tree growth modeling

Science.gov (United States)

E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

2012-01-01

This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

Project CAPTURE: a U.S. national prioritization assessment of tree species for conservation, management, and restoration

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin M. Potter; Barbara S. Crane; Valerie D. Hipkins

2017-01-01

that forest tree species will undergo population-level extirpation or species-level extinction during the next century. Project CAPTURE (Conservation Assessment and Prioritization of Forest Trees Under Risk of Extirpation) is a cooperative effort across the three U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA FS) deputy areas to establish a framework for...

Electron Tree

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appelt, Ane L; Rønde, Heidi S

2013-01-01

The photo shows a close-up of a Lichtenberg figure – popularly called an “electron tree” – produced in a cylinder of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Electron trees are created by irradiating a suitable insulating material, in this case PMMA, with an intense high energy electron beam. Upon discharge......, during dielectric breakdown in the material, the electrons generate branching chains of fractures on leaving the PMMA, producing the tree pattern seen. To be able to create electron trees with a clinical linear accelerator, one needs to access the primary electron beam used for photon treatments. We...... appropriated a linac that was being decommissioned in our department and dismantled the head to circumvent the target and ion chambers. This is one of 24 electron trees produced before we had to stop the fun and allow the rest of the accelerator to be disassembled....

Classification and regression trees

CERN Document Server

Breiman, Leo; Olshen, Richard A; Stone, Charles J

1984-01-01

The methodology used to construct tree structured rules is the focus of this monograph. Unlike many other statistical procedures, which moved from pencil and paper to calculators, this text's use of trees was unthinkable before computers. Both the practical and theoretical sides have been developed in the authors' study of tree methods. Classification and Regression Trees reflects these two sides, covering the use of trees as a data analysis method, and in a more mathematical framework, proving some of their fundamental properties.