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Sample records for risk tree analytical

  1. Mort User's Manual: For use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  2. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these deficiencies

  3. MORT User's Manual for use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram. [Contains a list of System Safety Development Center publications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1,500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  4. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications[Dissertation 17286

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M

    2007-07-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these

  5. Analytical propagation of uncertainties through fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, Ulrich

    2002-01-01

    A method is presented which enables one to propagate uncertainties described by uniform probability density functions through fault trees. The approach is analytical. It is based on calculating the expected value and the variance of the top event probability. These two parameters are then equated with the corresponding ones of a beta-distribution. An example calculation comparing the analytically calculated beta-pdf (probability density function) with the top event pdf obtained using the Monte-Carlo method shows excellent agreement at a much lower expense of computing time

  6. Analytical and numerical studies of creation probabilities of hierarchical trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.S. Borysov

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the creation conditions of diverse hierarchical trees both analytically and numerically. A connection between the probabilities to create hierarchical levels and the probability to associate these levels into a united structure is studied. We argue that a consistent probabilistic picture requires the use of deformed algebra. Our consideration is based on the study of the main types of hierarchical trees, among which both regular and degenerate ones are studied analytically, while the creation probabilities of Fibonacci, scale-free and arbitrary trees are determined numerically.

  7. Risk analytics for hedge funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pareek, Ankur

    2005-05-01

    The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

  8. Fractal approach to computer-analytical modelling of tree crown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berezovskaya, F.S.; Karev, G.P.; Kisliuk, O.F.; Khlebopros, R.G.; Tcelniker, Yu.L.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper we discuss three approaches to the modeling of a tree crown development. These approaches are experimental (i.e. regressive), theoretical (i.e. analytical) and simulation (i.e. computer) modeling. The common assumption of these is that a tree can be regarded as one of the fractal objects which is the collection of semi-similar objects and combines the properties of two- and three-dimensional bodies. We show that a fractal measure of crown can be used as the link between the mathematical models of crown growth and light propagation through canopy. The computer approach gives the possibility to visualize a crown development and to calibrate the model on experimental data. In the paper different stages of the above-mentioned approaches are described. The experimental data for spruce, the description of computer system for modeling and the variant of computer model are presented. (author). 9 refs, 4 figs

  9. Analytical Modeling for Underground Risk Assessment in Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israr Ullah

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In the developed world, underground facilities are increasing day-by-day, as it is considered as an improved utilization of available space in smart cities. Typical facilities include underground railway lines, electricity lines, parking lots, water supply systems, sewerage network, etc. Besides its utility, these facilities also pose serious threats to citizens and property. To preempt accidental loss of precious human lives and properties, a real time monitoring system is highly desirable for conducting risk assessment on continuous basis and timely report any abnormality before its too late. In this paper, we present an analytical formulation to model system behavior for risk analysis and assessment based on various risk contributing factors. Based on proposed analytical model, we have evaluated three approximation techniques for computing final risk index: (a simple linear approximation based on multiple linear regression analysis; (b hierarchical fuzzy logic based technique in which related risk factors are combined in a tree like structure; and (c hybrid approximation approach which is a combination of (a and (b. Experimental results shows that simple linear approximation fails to accurately estimate final risk index as compared to hierarchical fuzzy logic based system which shows that the latter provides an efficient method for monitoring and forecasting critical issues in the underground facilities and may assist in maintenance efficiency as well. Estimation results based on hybrid approach fails to accurately estimate final risk index. However, hybrid scheme reveals some interesting and detailed information by performing automatic clustering based on location risk index.

  10. A structurally based analytic model for estimation of biomass and fuel loads of woodland trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin J. Tausch

    2009-01-01

    Allometric/structural relationships in tree crowns are a consequence of the physical, physiological, and fluid conduction processes of trees, which control the distribution, efficient support, and growth of foliage in the crown. The structural consequences of these processes are used to develop an analytic model based on the concept of branch orders. A set of...

  11. Use of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) methodology in health-physics program appraisals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essig, T.H.; Gilchrist, R.L.

    1981-06-01

    In January 1980, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) assumed a major role in helping the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) conduct comprehensive health physics appraisals at 47 operating nuclear power plants. These appraisals required the development of an analytical technique that permitted a deductive analysis of a health-physics program on an element-by-element basis. The technique employed was a modification of the Management Oversight and risk Tree (MORT) analytical logic methodology used in probabilistic assessments. This paper includes the method used in establishing the appraisal guidelines and assigning the proper level of importance within the analytical tree structure. The system for ensuring the proper subdivision necessary for an adequate assessment of each area (e.g., exposure controls and radioactive waste management) will also be discussed. In addition to these major subjects, the generation of specific review questions that correspond to the analytical trees is addressed

  12. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  13. Analytical estimates and proof of the scale-free character of efficiency and improvement in Barabasi-Albert trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Bermejo, B. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnologia, Edificio Departamental II, Calle Tulipan S/N, 28933-Mostoles-Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: benito.hernandez@urjc.es; Marco-Blanco, J. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnologia, Edificio Departamental II, Calle Tulipan S/N, 28933-Mostoles-Madrid (Spain); Romance, M. [Departamento de Matematica Aplicada, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnologia, Edificio Departamental II, Calle Tulipan S/N, 28933-Mostoles-Madrid (Spain)

    2009-02-23

    Estimates for the efficiency of a tree are derived, leading to new analytical expressions for Barabasi-Albert trees efficiency. These expressions are used to investigate the dynamic behaviour of such networks. It is proved that the preferential attachment leads to an asymptotic conservation of efficiency as the Barabasi-Albert trees grow.

  14. Analytical estimates and proof of the scale-free character of efficiency and improvement in Barabasi-Albert trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Bermejo, B.; Marco-Blanco, J.; Romance, M.

    2009-01-01

    Estimates for the efficiency of a tree are derived, leading to new analytical expressions for Barabasi-Albert trees efficiency. These expressions are used to investigate the dynamic behaviour of such networks. It is proved that the preferential attachment leads to an asymptotic conservation of efficiency as the Barabasi-Albert trees grow

  15. Urban trees and the risk of poor birth outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Yvonne L. Michael; David T. Butry; Amy D. Sullivan; John M. Chase

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigated whether greater tree-canopy cover is associated with reduced risk of poor birth outcomes in Portland, Oregon. Residential addresses were geocoded and linked to classified-aerial imagery to calculate tree-canopy cover in 50, 100, and 200 m buffers around each home in our sample (n=5696). Detailed data on maternal characteristics and additional...

  16. Visualizing Decision Trees in Games to Support Children's Analytic Reasoning: Any Negative Effects on Gameplay?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Haworth

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The popularity and usage of digital games has increased in recent years, bringing further attention to their design. Some digital games require a significant use of higher order thought processes, such as problem solving and reflective and analytical thinking. Through the use of appropriate and interactive representations, these thought processes could be supported. A visualization of the game's internal structure is an example of this. However, it is unknown whether including these extra representations will have a negative effect on gameplay. To investigate this issue, a digital maze-like game was designed with its underlying structure represented as a decision tree. A qualitative, exploratory study with children was performed to examine whether the tree supported their thought processes and what effects, if any, the tree had on gameplay. This paper reports the findings of this research and discusses the implications for the design of games in general.

  17. Application gives the technique the analytic tree in the evaluation the effectiveness programs to radiological protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Gonzalez, F.; Perez Velazquez, R.S.; Fornet Rodriguez, O.; Mustelier Hechevarria, A.; Miller Clemente, A.

    1998-01-01

    In the work we develop the IAEA recommendations in the application the analytic tree as instrument for the evaluation the effectiveness the occupational radiological protection programs. Is reflected like it has been assimilated and converted that technique in daily work istruments in the evaluation process the security conditions in the institutions that apply the nuclear techniques with a view to its autorization on the part of the regulatory organ

  18. Probability of bystander effect induced by alpha-particles emitted by radon progeny using the analytical model of tracheobronchial tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, B.; Nikezic, D.

    2010-01-01

    Radiation-induced biological bystander effects have become a phenomenon associated with the interaction of radiation with cells. There is a need to include the influence of biological effects in the dosimetry of the human lung. With this aim, the purpose of this work is to calculate the probability of bystander effect induced by alpha-particle radiation on sensitive cells of the human lung. Probability was calculated by applying the analytical model cylinder bifurcation, which was created to simulate the geometry of the human lung with the geometric distribution of cell nuclei in the airway wall of the tracheobronchial tree. This analytical model of the human tracheobronchial tree represents the extension of the ICRP 66 model, and follows it as much as possible. Reported probabilities are calculated for various targets and alpha-particle energies. Probability of bystander effect has been calculated for alpha particles with 6 and 7.69 MeV energies, which are emitted in the 222 Rn chain. The application of these results may enhance current dose risk estimation approaches in the sense of the inclusion of the influence of the biological effects. (authors)

  19. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  20. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  1. Evaluation of the seasonal and annual abortifacient risk of western juniper trees on Oregon rangelands: Abortion risk of western juniper trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Western juniper trees can cause late term abortions in cattle, similar to ponderosa pine trees. Analyses of western juniper trees from 35 locations across the state of Oregon suggest that western juniper trees in all areas present an abortion risk in pregnant cattle. Results from this study demonstr...

  2. Public perception of analytical risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waite, D.A.; McCormack, W.D.

    1990-01-01

    Most analytical assessments of potential impacts on the environment from US Department of Energy (DOE) activities receive, at some point in their development, public scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to discuss the apparent perception of these assessments held by the public reviewers, based on written and verbal comments that they have offered. The discussion begins with a short overview of the analytical assessment process most often used on DOE projects. The process is described in terms of the basic process elements and data sources involved. Based on this outline of the assessment process, the key elements from the public's perspective are identified and examined on the basis of Importance Criteria and the Perception Framework in which the Importance Criteria appear to be applied. The paper is concluded with an analysis of the key elements of the public's perception. This section of the discussion is formatted to couple observational evidence of public perception difficulties with key assessment elements, and these difficulties with potential alternative approaches that serve the same purpose but are more acceptable to the public

  3. RAFT: a computer program for fault tree risk calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seybold, G.D.

    1977-11-01

    A description and user instructions are presented for RAFT, a FORTRAN computer code for calculation of a risk measure for fault tree cut sets. RAFT calculates release quantities and a risk measure based on the product of probability and release quantity for cut sets of fault trees modeling the accidental release of radioactive material from a nuclear fuel cycle facility. Cut sets and their probabilities are supplied as input to RAFT from an external fault tree analysis code. Using the total inventory available of radioactive material, along with release fractions for each event in a cut set, the release terms are calculated for each cut set. Each release term is multiplied by the cut set probability to yield the cut set risk measure. RAFT orders the dominant cut sets on the risk measure. The total risk measure of processed cut sets and their fractional contributions are supplied as output. Input options are available to eliminate redundant cut sets, apply threshold values on cut set probability and risk, and control the total number of cut sets output. Hash addressing is used to remove redundant cut sets from the analysis. Computer hardware and software restrictions are given along with a sample problem and cross-reference table of the code. Except for the use of file management utilities, RAFT is written exclusively in FORTRAN language and is operational on a Control Data, CYBER 74-18--series computer system. 4 figures

  4. Use of the analytical tree technique to develop a radiological protection program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domenech N, H.; Jova S, L.

    1996-01-01

    The results obtained by the Cuban Center for Radiological Protection and Hygiene by using an analytical tree technique to develop its general operational radiation protection program are presented. By the application of this method, some factors such as the organization of the radiation protection services, the provision of administrative requirements, the existing general laboratories requirements, the viability of resources and the current documentation was evaluated. Main components were considered such as: complete normative and regulatory documentation; automatic radiological protection data management; scope of 'on the-job'and radiological protection training for the personnel; previous radiological appraisal for the safety performance of the works and application of dose constrains for the personnel and the public. The detailed development of the program allowed to identify the basic aims to be achieved in its maintenance and improvement. (authors). 3 refs

  5. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  6. A broad scale analysis of tree risk, mitigation and potential habitat for cavity-nesting birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Kane; Paige S. Warren; Susannah B. Lerman

    2015-01-01

    Trees in towns and cities provide habitat for wildlife. In particular, cavity-nesting birds nest in the deadand decayed stems and branches of these trees. The same dead and decayed stems and branches alsohave a greater likelihood of failure, which, in some circumstances, increases risk. We examined 1760trees in Baltimore, MD, USA and western MA, USA, assessing tree...

  7. Investigation of Lab Fire Prevention Management System of Combining Root Cause Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process with Event Tree Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Chan Shih

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposed a new approach, combining root cause analysis (RCA, analytic hierarchy process (AHP, and event tree analysis (ETA in a loop to systematically evaluate various laboratory safety prevention strategies. First, 139 fire accidents were reviewed to identify the root causes and draw out prevention strategies. Most fires were caused due to runaway reactions, operation error and equipment failure, and flammable material release. These mostly occurred in working places of no prompt fire protection. We also used AHP to evaluate the priority of these strategies and found that chemical fire prevention strategy is the most important control element, and strengthening maintenance and safety inspection intensity is the most important action. Also together with our surveys results, we proposed that equipment design is also critical for fire prevention. Therefore a technical improvement was propounded: installing fire detector, automatic sprinkler, and manual extinguisher in the lab hood as proactive fire protections. ETA was then used as a tool to evaluate laboratory fire risks. The results indicated that the total risk of a fire occurring decreases from 0.0351 to 0.0042 without/with equipment taking actions. Establishing such system can make Environment, Health and Safety (EH&S office not only analyze and prioritize fire prevention policies more practically, but also demonstrate how effective protective equipment improvement can achieve and the probabilities of the initiating event developing into a serious accident or controlled by the existing safety system.

  8. Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

  9. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  10. Using decision trees to manage hospital readmission risk for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert, John P; Zasadil, Scott; Keyser, Donna J; Peele, Pamela B

    2014-12-01

    To improve healthcare quality and reduce costs, the Affordable Care Act places hospitals at financial risk for excessive readmissions associated with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia (PN). Although predictive analytics is increasingly looked to as a means for measuring, comparing, and managing this risk, many modeling tools require data inputs that are not readily available and/or additional resources to yield actionable information. This article demonstrates how hospitals and clinicians can use their own structured discharge data to create decision trees that produce highly transparent, clinically relevant decision rules for better managing readmission risk associated with AMI, HF, and PN. For illustrative purposes, basic decision trees are trained and tested using publically available data from the California State Inpatient Databases and an open-source statistical package. As expected, these simple models perform less well than other more sophisticated tools, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (or AUC) of 0.612, 0.583, and 0.650, respectively, but achieve a lift of at least 1.5 or greater for higher-risk patients with any of the three conditions. More importantly, they are shown to offer substantial advantages in terms of transparency and interpretability, comprehensiveness, and adaptability. By enabling hospitals and clinicians to identify important factors associated with readmissions, target subgroups of patients at both high and low risk, and design and implement interventions that are appropriate to the risk levels observed, decision trees serve as an ideal application for addressing the challenge of reducing hospital readmissions.

  11. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk Governance: An Application of Analytic-Deliberative Policy Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, Ortwin

    2006-01-01

    The paper introduces an integrated analytic framework for risk governance which provides guidance for the development of comprehensive assessment and management strategies to cope with risks, in particular at the global level. The framework integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders. The concept of risk governance comprises a broad picture of risk: not only does it include what has been termed 'risk management' or 'risk analysis, it also looks at how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The framework's risk process breaks down into three main phases: 'pre-assessment', 'appraisal', and 'management'. A further phase, comprising the 'characterisation' and 'evaluation' of risk, is placed between the appraisal and management phases and, depending on whether those charged with the assessment or those responsible for management are better equipped to perform the associated tasks, can be assigned to either of them - thus concluding the appraisal phase or marking the start of the management phase. The risk process has 'communication' as a companion to all phases of addressing and handling risk and is itself of a cyclical nature. However, the clear sequence of phases and steps offered by this process is primarily a logical and functional one and will not always correspond to reality. The paper will address in particular the role of public participation and stakeholder involvement

  13. Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khaja, Nawal

    2007-01-01

    This is a thematic lesson plan for young learners about palm trees and the importance of taking care of them. The two part lesson teaches listening, reading and speaking skills. The lesson includes parts of a tree; the modal auxiliary, can; dialogues and a role play activity.

  14. Risk Governance: An Application of Analytic-Deliberative Policy Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, Ortwin [Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany)

    2006-09-15

    The paper introduces an integrated analytic framework for risk governance which provides guidance for the development of comprehensive assessment and management strategies to cope with risks, in particular at the global level. The framework integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders. The concept of risk governance comprises a broad picture of risk: not only does it include what has been termed 'risk management' or 'risk analysis, it also looks at how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The framework's risk process breaks down into three main phases: 'pre-assessment', 'appraisal', and 'management'. A further phase, comprising the 'characterisation' and 'evaluation' of risk, is placed between the appraisal and management phases and, depending on whether those charged with the assessment or those responsible for management are better equipped to perform the associated tasks, can be assigned to either of them - thus concluding the appraisal phase or marking the start of the management phase. The risk process has 'communication' as a companion to all phases of addressing and handling risk and is itself of a cyclical nature. However, the clear sequence of phases and steps offered by this process is primarily a logical and functional one and will not always correspond to reality. The paper will address in particular the role of public participation and stakeholder involvement.

  15. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  16. Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

    2012-01-01

    At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

  17. Analytical method for the evaluation of the outdoor air contamination by emerging pollutants using tree leaves as bioindicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barroso, Pedro José; Martín, Julia; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

    2018-01-01

    In this work, an analytical method, based on sonication-assisted extraction, clean-up by dispersive solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, has been developed and validated for the simultaneous determination of 15 emerging pollutants in leaves from four ornamental tree species. Target compounds include perfluorinated organic compounds, plasticizers, surfactants, brominated flame retardant, and preservatives. The method was optimized using Box-Behnken statistical experimental design with response surface methodology and validated in terms of recovery, accuracy, precision, and method detection and quantification limits. Quantification of target compounds was carried out using matrix-matched calibration curves. The highest recoveries were achieved for the perfluorinated organic compounds (mean values up to 87%) and preservatives (up to 88%). The lowest recoveries were achieved for plasticizers (51%) and brominated flame retardant (63%). Method detection and quantification limits were in the ranges 0.01-0.09 ng/g dry matter (dm) and 0.02-0.30 ng/g dm, respectively, for most of the target compounds. The method was successfully applied to the determination of the target compounds on leaves from four tree species used as urban ornamental trees (Citrus aurantium, Celtis australis, Platanus hispanica, and Jacaranda mimosifolia). Graphical abstract Analytical method for the biomonitorization of emerging pollutants in outdoor air.

  18. Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamadfam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

  19. Water transport through tall trees: A vertically-explicit, analytical model of xylem hydraulic conductance in stems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, Valentin; Ledder, Glenn; Manzoni, Stefano; Way, Danielle A; Muller, Erik B; Russo, Sabrina E

    2018-05-08

    Trees grow by vertically extending their stems, so accurate stem hydraulic models are fundamental to understanding the hydraulic challenges faced by tall trees. Using a literature survey, we showed that many tree species exhibit continuous vertical variation in hydraulic traits. To examine the effects of this variation on hydraulic function, we developed a spatially-explicit, analytical water transport model for stems. Our model allows Huber ratio, stem-saturated conductivity, pressure at 50% loss of conductivity, leaf area, and transpiration rate to vary continuously along the hydraulic path. Predictions from our model differ from a matric flux potential model parameterized with uniform traits. Analyses show that cavitation is a whole-stem emergent property resulting from nonlinear pressure-conductivity feedbacks that, with gravity, cause impaired water transport to accumulate along the path. Because of the compounding effects of vertical trait variation on hydraulic function, growing proportionally more sapwood and building tapered xylem with height, as well as reducing xylem vulnerability only at branch tips while maintaining transport capacity at the stem base, can compensate for these effects. We therefore conclude that the adaptive significance of vertical variation in stem hydraulic traits is to allow trees to grow tall and tolerate operating near their hydraulic limits. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  20. Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

    2010-07-27

    The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (psocial relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  1. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  2. Pattern recognition of spruce trees. An integrated, analytical approach to forest damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmleit, N.; Schulten, H.R.

    1989-01-01

    In-source pyrolysis-field ionization mass spectrometry was used to fingerprint old needles taken from 90-year-old Norway spruce trees (Picea abies) grown in the Taunus mountains (Federal Republic of Germany). Biometric, physiological variables and elemental compositions of needle and forest soil samples were gathered for the same trees. The mass spectral and conventional data sets were evaluated by principal-component and multiple regression analysis. The results indicate that the mass signal pattern of antioxidants, the soil acidity, the water status, and the nutritional supply of the plant contribute most to the variance of damage symptoms observed in the forest stand investigated. The visual needle loss of the canopy can be predicted by antioxidant, soil acidity, and water status parameters, whereas a further classification according to the discoloration of the needles can only be achieved by adding a soil nutrient component. It is emphasized that multivariate statistical evaluation of complex data sets should be used for the investigation of environmental problems

  3. Visualizing Decision Trees in Games to Support Children's Analytic Reasoning: Any Negative Effects on Gameplay?

    OpenAIRE

    Haworth, Robert; Tagh Bostani, Sousan Sheida; Sedig, Kamran

    2010-01-01

    The popularity and usage of digital games has increased in recent years, bringing further attention to their design. Some digital games require a significant use of higher order thought processes, such as problem solving and reflective and analytical thinking. Through the use of appropriate and interactive representations, these thought processes could be supported. A visualization of the game's internal structure is an example of this. However, it is unknown whether including these extra rep...

  4. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  5. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  6. The Ethics of Using Learning Analytics to Categorize Students on Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholes, Vanessa

    2016-01-01

    There are good reasons for higher education institutions to use learning analytics to risk-screen students. Institutions can use learning analytics to better predict which students are at greater risk of dropping out or failing, and use the statistics to treat "risky" students differently. This paper analyses this practice using…

  7. Phytoextraction of risk elements by willow and poplar trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kacálková, Lada; Tlustoš, Pavel; Száková, Jiřina

    2015-01-01

    To characterize the phytoextraction efficiency of two clones of willow trees (Salix x smithiana Willd., Salix rubens) and two clones of poplar trees (Populus nigra x maximowiczii, Populus nigra Wolterson) were planted in contaminated soil (0.4-2.0 mg Cd.kg(-1), 78-313 mg Zn.kg(-1), 21.3-118 mg Cu.kg(-1)). Field experiment was carried out in Czech Republic. The study investigated their ability to accumulate heavy metals (Cd, Zn, and Cu) in harvestable plant parts. The poplars produced higher amount of biomass than willows. Both Salix clones accumulated higher amount of Cd, Zn and Cu in their biomass (maximum 6.8 mg Cd.kg(-1), 909 mg Zn.kg(-1), and 17.7 mg Cu.kg(-1)) compared to Populus clones (maximum 2.06 mg Cd.kg(-1), 463 mg Zn.kg(-1), and 11.8 mg Cu.kg(-1)). There were no significant differences between clones of individual species. BCs for Cd and Zn were greater than 1 (the highest in willow leaves). BCs values of Cu were very low. These results indicate that Salix is more suitable plant for phytoextraction of Cd and Zn than Populus. The Cu phytoextraction potential of Salix and Populus trees was not confirmed in this experiment due to low soil availability of this element.

  8. Review of the severe accident risk reduction program (SARRP) containment event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    A part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have constructed a group of containment event trees to be used in the analysis of key accident sequences for light water reactors (LWR) during postulated severe accidents. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide to the NRC staff a current assessment of the risk from severe reactor accidents for a group of five light water reactors. This review specifically focuses on the development and construction of the containment event trees and the results for containment failure probability, modes and timing. The report first gives the background on the program, the review criteria, and a summary of the observations, findings and recommendations. secondly, the individual reviews of each committee member on the event trees is presented. Finally, a review is provided on the computer model used to construct and evaluate the event trees

  9. German risk study, phase B: Results of the event tree and fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoertner, H.

    1987-01-01

    This paper deals with the most important results of the level 1 analysis performed in Phase B of the German Risk Study and with the insights it provided. The question is raised, to what extent the results of risk analyses can be verified against available operating experience. In this respect the results of the German Risk Study will be compared with the estimates of the German Precursor Study. Finally, the results of the German investigations are briefly compared with the results of recent U.S. risk analyses. (orig.)

  10. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove; Frank H. Koch

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will likely pose a severe threat to the viability of certain forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift to more favorable environments if they are to survive. Several forest tree species of the central and southern Appalachians may be at particular risk, since they occur in limited high-elevation ranges and/or...

  11. Risk Factors of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Logistic Regression Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Takashi; Noe, Douglas A.; Bailer, A. John

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: A novel logistic regression tree-based method was applied to identify fall risk factors and possible interaction effects of those risk factors. Design and Methods: A nationally representative sample of American older adults aged 65 years and older (N = 9,592) in the Health and Retirement Study 2004 and 2006 modules was used.…

  12. Maintenance cost, toppling risk and size of trees in a self-thinning stand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjavaara, Markku

    2010-07-07

    Wind routinely topples trees during storms, and the likelihood that a tree is toppled depends critically on its allometry. Yet none of the existing theories to explain tree allometry consider wind drag on tree canopies. Since leaf area index in crowded, self-thinning stands is independent of stand density, the drag force per unit land can also be assumed to be independent of stand density, with only canopy height influencing the total toppling moment. Tree stem dimensions and the self-thinning biomass can then be computed by further assuming that the risk of toppling over and stem maintenance per unit land area are independent of stand density, and that stem maintenance cost is a linear function of stem surface area and sapwood volume. These assumptions provide a novel way to understand tree allometry and lead to a self-thinning line relating tree biomass and stand density with a power between -3/2 and -2/3 depending on the ratio of maintenance of sapwood and stem surface. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

  14. Development of label dosimeters and analytical methods to verify absorbed dose in irradiated dried fruits/tree nuts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattar, Abdus; Ahmad, Anwar; Atta, Shaheen

    2001-01-01

    Density measurements of fresh/dried fruits and tree nuts varied depending upon the package size, type and the nature of the sample. For the development of label dosimeters, the samples of clear PMMA in the thickness range of 410 mm gave a linear response in relation to the irradiation doses (0.125-1.0 kGy) and the optical response was stable almost for 6 months at ambient storage (20-35 deg. C; R.H 40-80%). Flexible polymers (polyethylene and PVC) materials were not found suitable in the dose range of 0.1-3.0 kGy. Subjective evaluation of Sterin indicator, an ISP product from USA, revealed that this new material is generally reliable, however, they were also affected by the doses lower than their threshold values (125 and 300 Gy) as well as exposure to light during storage. The yellow PMMA dosimeter (YLPMMA) developed by China was useful in the range of 125-1000 Gy of gamma radiation. Dose distribution studies of research irradiator at NIFA and a commercial gamma source (PARAS) at Lahore, indicated almost a good dose uniformity in the product containers in each case. Among the analytical methods (thermoluminescence and gas chromatography) the thermoluminescence measurements exhibited clearly reproducible and dose dependent differences between treated (0.5-1.5 kGy) and untreated samples of dried fruits/nuts. (author)

  15. Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

  16. The simple analytics of systemic liquidity risk regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2011-01-01

    How to regulate systemic risk? This column presents a new CEPR discussion paper assessing the performance of Pigouvian taxes and quantity-based regulations in containing the social costs of high-risk banking. It finds that, depending on how banks differ, the socially efficient solution may be

  17. Genetically engineered trees for plantation forests: key considerations for environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häggman, Hely; Raybould, Alan; Borem, Aluizio; Fox, Thomas; Handley, Levis; Hertzberg, Magnus; Lu, Meng-Zu; Macdonald, Philip; Oguchi, Taichi; Pasquali, Giancarlo; Pearson, Les; Peter, Gary; Quemada, Hector; Séguin, Armand; Tattersall, Kylie; Ulian, Eugênio; Walter, Christian; McLean, Morven

    2013-09-01

    Forests are vital to the world's ecological, social, cultural and economic well-being yet sustainable provision of goods and services from forests is increasingly challenged by pressures such as growing demand for wood and other forest products, land conversion and degradation, and climate change. Intensively managed, highly productive forestry incorporating the most advanced methods for tree breeding, including the application of genetic engineering (GE), has tremendous potential for producing more wood on less land. However, the deployment of GE trees in plantation forests is a controversial topic and concerns have been particularly expressed about potential harms to the environment. This paper, prepared by an international group of experts in silviculture, forest tree breeding, forest biotechnology and environmental risk assessment (ERA) that met in April 2012, examines how the ERA paradigm used for GE crop plants may be applied to GE trees for use in plantation forests. It emphasizes the importance of differentiating between ERA for confined field trials of GE trees, and ERA for unconfined or commercial-scale releases. In the case of the latter, particular attention is paid to characteristics of forest trees that distinguish them from shorter-lived plant species, the temporal and spatial scale of forests, and the biodiversity of the plantation forest as a receiving environment. © 2013 ILSI Research Foundation. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Aspartame and Risk of Cancer: A Meta-analytic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallikarjun, Sreekanth; Sieburth, Rebecca McNeill

    2015-01-01

    Aspartame (APM) is the most commonly used artificial sweetener and flavor enhancer in the world. There is a rise in concern that APM is carcinogenic due to a variation in the findings of the previous APM carcinogenic bioassays. This article conducts a meta-analytic review of all previous APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents that were conducted before 31 December 2012. The search yielded 10 original APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents. The aggregate effect sizes suggest that APM consumption has no significant carcinogenic effect in rodents.

  19. Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

    2015-03-01

    A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

  20. Theoretical validation of potential habitability via analytical and boosted tree methods: An optimistic study on recently discovered exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, S.; Basak, S.; Safonova, M.; Bora, K.; Agrawal, S.; Sarkar, P.; Murthy, J.

    2018-04-01

    Seven Earth-sized planets, known as the TRAPPIST-1 system, was discovered with great fanfare in the last week of February 2017. Three of these planets are in the habitable zone of their star, making them potentially habitable planets (PHPs) a mere 40 light years away. The discovery of the closest potentially habitable planet to us just a year before - Proxima b and a realization that Earth-type planets in circumstellar habitable zones are a common occurrence provides the impetus to the existing pursuit for life outside the Solar System. The search for life has two goals essentially: looking for planets with Earth-like conditions (Earth similarity) and looking for the possibility of life in some form (habitability). An index was recently developed, the Cobb-Douglas Habitability Score (CDHS), based on Cobb-Douglas habitability production function (CD-HPF), which computes the habitability score by using measured and estimated planetary parameters. As an initial set, radius, density, escape velocity and surface temperature of a planet were used. The proposed metric, with exponents accounting for metric elasticity, is endowed with analytical properties that ensure global optima and can be scaled to accommodate a finite number of input parameters. We show here that the model is elastic, and the conditions on elasticity to ensure global maxima can scale as the number of predictor parameters increase. K-NN (K-Nearest Neighbor) classification algorithm, embellished with probabilistic herding and thresholding restriction, utilizes CDHS scores and labels exoplanets into appropriate classes via feature-learning methods yielding granular clusters of habitability. The algorithm works on top of a decision-theoretical model using the power of convex optimization and machine learning. The goal is to characterize the recently discovered exoplanets into an "Earth League" and several other classes based on their CDHS values. A second approach, based on a novel feature-learning and

  1. Malignancy Risk Assessment in Patients with Thyroid Nodules Using Classification and Regression Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shokouh Taghipour Zahir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. We sought to investigate the utility of classification and regression trees (CART classifier to differentiate benign from malignant nodules in patients referred for thyroid surgery. Methods. Clinical and demographic data of 271 patients referred to the Sadoughi Hospital during 2006–2011 were collected. In a two-step approach, a CART classifier was employed to differentiate patients with a high versus low risk of thyroid malignancy. The first step served as the screening procedure and was tailored to produce as few false negatives as possible. The second step identified those with the lowest risk of malignancy, chosen from a high risk population. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV of the optimal tree were calculated. Results. In the first step, age, sex, and nodule size contributed to the optimal tree. Ultrasonographic features were employed in the second step with hypoechogenicity and/or microcalcifications yielding the highest discriminatory ability. The combined tree produced a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0% (95% CI: 29.9–98.9 and 94.1% (95% CI: 78.9–99.0, respectively. NPV and PPV were 66.7% (41.1–85.6 and 97.0% (82.5–99.8, respectively. Conclusion. CART classifier reliably identifies patients with a low risk of malignancy who can avoid unnecessary surgery.

  2. Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objective: To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. Methods: The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to con...

  3. Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P

    2017-11-01

    The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

  4. The Studies of Decision Tree in Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk by Using Polymorphism Nucleotide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frida Seyedmir

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction:   Decision tree is the data mining tools to collect, accurate prediction and sift information from massive amounts of data that are used widely in the field of computational biology and bioinformatics. In bioinformatics can be predict on diseases, including breast cancer. The use of genomic data including single nucleotide polymorphisms is a very important factor in predicting the risk of diseases. The number of seven important SNP among hundreds of thousands genetic markers were identified as factors associated with breast cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the training data on decision tree predictor error of the risk of breast cancer by using single nucleotide polymorphism genotype. Methods: The risk of breast cancer were calculated associated with the use of SNP formula:xj = fo * In human,  The decision tree can be used To predict the probability of disease using single nucleotide polymorphisms .Seven SNP with different odds ratio associated with breast cancer considered and coding and design of decision tree model, C4.5, by  Csharp2013 programming language were done. In the decision tree created with the coding, the four important associated SNP was considered. The decision tree error in two case of coding and using WEKA were assessment and percentage of decision tree accuracy in prediction of breast cancer were calculated. The number of trained samples was obtained with systematic sampling. With coding, two scenarios as well as software WEKA, three scenarios with different sets of data and the number of different learning and testing, were evaluated. Results: In both scenarios of coding, by increasing the training percentage from 66/66 to 86/42, the error reduced from 55/56 to 9/09. Also by running of WEKA on three scenarios with different sets of data, the number of different education, and different tests by increasing records number from 81 to 2187, the error rate decreased from 48/15 to 13

  5. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

    2017-03-01

    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  6. A Study on Landslide Risk Management by Applying Fault Tree Logics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazmi Danish

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Slope stability is one of the focal areas of curiosity to geotechnical designers and also appears logical for the application of probabilistic approaches since the analysis lead to a “probability of failure”. Assessment of the existing slopes in relation with risks seems to be more meaningful when concerning with landslides. Probabilistic slope stability analysis (PSSA is the best option in covering the landslides events. The intent here is to bid a probabilistic framework for quantified risk analysis with human uncertainties. In this regard, Fault Tree Analysis is utilized and for prediction of risk levels, consequences of the failures of the reference landslides have been taken. It is concluded that logics of fault trees is best fit, to clinch additional categories of uncertainty; like human, organizational, and knowledge related. In actual, the approach has been used in bringing together engineering and management performances and personnel, to produce reliability in slope engineering practices.

  7. Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorton, Dan

    2014-09-01

    The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  9. Drought-induced xylem cavitation and hydraulic deterioration: risk factors for urban trees under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savi, Tadeja; Bertuzzi, Stefano; Branca, Salvatore; Tretiach, Mauro; Nardini, Andrea

    2015-02-01

    Urban trees help towns to cope with climate warming by cooling both air and surfaces. The challenges imposed by the urban environment, with special reference to low water availability due to the presence of extensive pavements, result in high rates of mortality of street trees, that can be increased by climatic extremes. We investigated the water relations and xylem hydraulic safety/efficiency of Quercus ilex trees growing at urban sites with different percentages of surrounding impervious pavements. Seasonal changes of plant water potential and gas exchange, vulnerability to cavitation and embolism level, and morpho-anatomical traits were measured. We found patterns of increasing water stress and vulnerability to drought at increasing percentages of impervious pavement cover, with a consequent reduction in gas exchange rates, decreased safety margins toward embolism development, and increased vulnerability to cavitation, suggesting the occurrence of stress-induced hydraulic deterioration. The amount of impermeable surface and chronic exposure to water stress influence the site-specific risk of drought-induced dieback of urban trees under extreme drought. Besides providing directions for management of green spaces in towns, our data suggest that xylem hydraulics is key to a full understanding of the responses of urban trees to global change. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  10. Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloy, Anthony F.

    2006-09-01

    A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

  11. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  12. Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite; Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Manmohan S. Kumar; Avinash Persaud

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses a "pure" form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that can enable policy makers to differentiate between financial contagion and domestic fundamentals as the immediate source of a crisis. Daily measures of risk appetite are computed and their usefulness...

  13. Decision support for mitigating the risk of tree induced transmission line failure in utility rights-of-way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, H M; Camp, A E

    2010-02-01

    Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility's (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation's power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

  14. An algorithm for sequential tail value at risk for path-independent payoffs in a binomial tree

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roorda, Berend

    2010-01-01

    We present an algorithm that determines Sequential Tail Value at Risk (STVaR) for path-independent payoffs in a binomial tree. STVaR is a dynamic version of Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) characterized by the property that risk levels at any moment must be in the range of risk levels later on. The

  15. RFID Privacy Risk Evaluation Based on Synthetic Method of Extended Attack Tree and Information Feature Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Peng; Xu, Chao; Chen, Long; Wang, Ruchuan

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation of security risks in radio frequency identification (RFID) systems is a challenging problem in Internet of Things (IoT). This paper proposes an extended attack tree (EAT) model to identify RFID system’s flaws and vulnerabilities. A corresponding formal description of the model is described which adds a probability SAND node together with the probability attribute of the node attack. In addition, we model the process of an RFID data privacy attack based on EAT, taking a sensitive in...

  16. The Combined Application of Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation in Generation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun

    2009-01-01

    The paper describes a few ideas developed for the framework to quantify human errors taking place during the test and maintenance (T and M) in a secondary system of nuclear power plants, which was presented in the previous meeting. GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) is composed of four essential components, the human error interpreter, the frequency estimator, the risk estimator, and the derate estimator. The proposed GRA gave emphasis on explicitly considering human errors, performing fault tree analysis including the entire balance-of-plant side, and quantifying electric loss under abnormal plant configurations. In terms of the consideration of human errors, it was hard to distinguish the effects of human errors from other failure modes in the conventional GRA because the human errors were implicitly involved in mechanical failure mode. Since the risk estimator in GRA-HRE separately deals with the basic events representing human error modes such as control failure, wrong object, omission, wrong action, etc., we can recognize their relative importance comparing with other types of mechanical failures. Other specialties in GRA-HRE came from the combined application of fault tree analysis and turbine cycle simulation. The previous study suggested that we would use the fault tree analysis with the top events designated by system's malfunction such as 'feedwater system failure' to develop the risk estimator. However, this approach could not clearly provide the path of propagation of human errors, and it was difficult to present the failure logics in some cases. In order to overcome these bottlenecks, the paper is going to propose the modified idea to setup top events and to explain how to make use of turbine cycle simulation to complete the fault trees in a cooperative manner

  17. Security and Risk Analysis of Nuclear Safeguards Instruments Using Attack Trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naumann, I.; Wishard, B.

    2015-01-01

    The IAEA's nuclear safeguards instruments must be frequently evaluated against attack vectors, which are extremely varied and, at first approximation, may seem inconsequential, but are not. To accurately analyze the impact of attacks on a multi-component system requires a highly structured and well-documented assessment. Tree structures, such as fault trees, have long been used to assess the consequences of selecting potential solutions and their impact on risk. When applied to security threats by introducing threat agents (adversaries) and vulnerabilities, this approach can be extremely valuable in uncovering previously unidentified risks and identifying mitigation steps. This paper discusses how attack trees can be used for the security analysis of nuclear safeguards instruments. The root node of such a tree represents an objective that negatively impacts security such as disclosing and/or falsifying instrument data or circumventing safeguards methods. Usually, this objective is rather complex and attaining it requires a combination of several security breaches which may vary on how much funding or what capabilities are required in order to execute them. Thus, it is necessary to break the root objective into smaller, less complex units. Once a leaf node describes a reasonably comprehensible action, it is the security experts' task to allocate levels of difficulty and funding to this node. Eventually, the paths from the leaf nodes to the root node describe all possible combinations of actions necessary to carry out a successful attack. The use of a well-structured attack tree facilitates the developer in thinking like the adversary providing more effective security solutions. (author)

  18. When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brad Oberle; Kiona Ogle; Amy E. Zanne; Christopher W. Woodall

    2018-01-01

    When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests...

  19. Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Cadmium contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees and its potential health risk in Guangzhou, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, J.T. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Qiu, J.W. [Department of Biology, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Wang, X.W. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Zhong, Y. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Lan, C.Y. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)]. E-mail: ls04@zsu.edu.cn; Shu, W.S. [School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)]. E-mail: ls53@zsu.edu.cn

    2006-09-15

    This study examines cadmium (Cd) contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees in Guangzhou, China, and assesses its potential health risk. Soils and tissues samples of three species of fruit trees were collected from three orchards. The average soil Cd concentration was 1.27, 1.84 and 0.68 mg/kg in orchards I, II, and III, respectively. The carambola (Averrhoa carambola) accumulated exceptionally high concentrations of Cd (7.57, 10.84, 9.01 and 2.15 mg/kg dw in root, twig, leaf and fruit, respectively), being 6.0-24 times and 4.0-10 times the corresponding tissue Cd in the longan (Dimocarpus longan) and wampee (Clausena lansium), respectively. Furthermore, all Cd concentrations (0.04-0.25 mg Cd/kg fw) of the fruits exceeded the tolerance limit of cadmium in foods of PR China (0.03 mg/kg fw). Our results indicate that the carambola tree has high Cd accumulation capacity and might be a Cd accumulator; and its fruit, among the three species of fruits studied, also poses the highest potential health risk to local residents. - Carambola fruit can accumulate high levels of cadmium and may be a health risk for humans.

  1. Cadmium contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees and its potential health risk in Guangzhou, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, J.T.; Qiu, J.W.; Wang, X.W.; Zhong, Y.; Lan, C.Y.; Shu, W.S.

    2006-01-01

    This study examines cadmium (Cd) contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees in Guangzhou, China, and assesses its potential health risk. Soils and tissues samples of three species of fruit trees were collected from three orchards. The average soil Cd concentration was 1.27, 1.84 and 0.68 mg/kg in orchards I, II, and III, respectively. The carambola (Averrhoa carambola) accumulated exceptionally high concentrations of Cd (7.57, 10.84, 9.01 and 2.15 mg/kg dw in root, twig, leaf and fruit, respectively), being 6.0-24 times and 4.0-10 times the corresponding tissue Cd in the longan (Dimocarpus longan) and wampee (Clausena lansium), respectively. Furthermore, all Cd concentrations (0.04-0.25 mg Cd/kg fw) of the fruits exceeded the tolerance limit of cadmium in foods of PR China (0.03 mg/kg fw). Our results indicate that the carambola tree has high Cd accumulation capacity and might be a Cd accumulator; and its fruit, among the three species of fruits studied, also poses the highest potential health risk to local residents. - Carambola fruit can accumulate high levels of cadmium and may be a health risk for humans

  2. Exploring the predictive power of interaction terms in a sophisticated risk equalization model using regression trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Veen, S H C M; van Kleef, R C; van de Ven, W P M M; van Vliet, R C J A

    2018-02-01

    This study explores the predictive power of interaction terms between the risk adjusters in the Dutch risk equalization (RE) model of 2014. Due to the sophistication of this RE-model and the complexity of the associations in the dataset (N = ~16.7 million), there are theoretically more than a million interaction terms. We used regression tree modelling, which has been applied rarely within the field of RE, to identify interaction terms that statistically significantly explain variation in observed expenses that is not already explained by the risk adjusters in this RE-model. The interaction terms identified were used as additional risk adjusters in the RE-model. We found evidence that interaction terms can improve the prediction of expenses overall and for specific groups in the population. However, the prediction of expenses for some other selective groups may deteriorate. Thus, interactions can reduce financial incentives for risk selection for some groups but may increase them for others. Furthermore, because regression trees are not robust, additional criteria are needed to decide which interaction terms should be used in practice. These criteria could be the right incentive structure for risk selection and efficiency or the opinion of medical experts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Enhancing Treatment Outcome of Patients at Risk of Treatment Failure: Meta-Analytic and Mega-Analytic Review of a Psychotherapy Quality Assurance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimokawa, Kenichi; Lambert, Michael J.; Smart, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Outcome research has documented worsening among a minority of the patient population (5% to 10%). In this study, we conducted a meta-analytic and mega-analytic review of a psychotherapy quality assurance system intended to enhance outcomes in patients at risk of treatment failure. Method: Original data from six major studies conducted…

  4. An analytical method of estimating Value-at-Risk on the Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obadović Milica D.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents market risk evaluation for a portfolio consisting of shares that are continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, by applying the Value-at-Risk model - the analytical method. It describes the manner of analytical method application and compares the results obtained by implementing this method at different confidence levels. Method verification was carried out on the basis of the failure rate that demonstrated the confidence level for which this method was acceptable in view of the given conditions.

  5. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-12-15

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  6. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA for Environmental Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  7. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-01-01

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

  8. The risk factors of laryngeal pathology in Korean adults using a decision tree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byeon, Haewon

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors affecting laryngeal pathology in the Korean population and to evaluate the derived prediction model. Cross-sectional study. Data were drawn from the 2008 Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. The subjects were 3135 persons (1508 male and 2114 female) aged 19 years and older living in the community. The independent variables were age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, and self-reported voice problems. A decision tree analysis was done to identify risk factors for predicting a model of laryngeal pathology. The significant risk factors of laryngeal pathology were age, gender, occupation, smoking, and self-reported voice problem in decision tree model. Four significant paths were identified in the decision tree model for the prediction of laryngeal pathology. Those identified as high risk groups for laryngeal pathology included those who self-reported a voice problem, those who were males in their 50s who did not recognize a voice problem, those who were not economically active males in their 40s, and male workers aged 19 and over and under 50 or 60 and over who currently smoked. The results of this study suggest that individual risk factors, such as age, sex, occupation, health behavior, and self-reported voice problem, affect the onset of laryngeal pathology in a complex manner. Based on the results of this study, early management of the high-risk groups is needed for the prevention of laryngeal pathology. Copyright © 2015 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

    2009-11-22

    Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

  10. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christensen Helen

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. Results The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. Conclusion The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

  11. Cadmium contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees and its potential health risk in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J T; Qiu, J W; Wang, X W; Zhong, Y; Lan, C Y; Shu, W S

    2006-09-01

    This study examines cadmium (Cd) contamination in orchard soils and fruit trees in Guangzhou, China, and assesses its potential health risk. Soils and tissues samples of three species of fruit trees were collected from three orchards. The average soil Cd concentration was 1.27, 1.84 and 0.68 mg/kg in orchards I, II, and III, respectively. The carambola (Averrhoa carambola) accumulated exceptionally high concentrations of Cd (7.57, 10.84, 9.01 and 2.15 mg/kg dw in root, twig, leaf and fruit, respectively), being 6.0-24 times and 4.0-10 times the corresponding tissue Cd in the longan (Dimocarpus longan) and wampee (Clausena lansium), respectively. Furthermore, all Cd concentrations (0.04-0.25 mg Cd/kg fw) of the fruits exceeded the tolerance limit of cadmium in foods of PR China (0.03 mg/kg fw). Our results indicate that the carambola tree has high Cd accumulation capacity and might be a Cd accumulator; and its fruit, among the three species of fruits studied, also poses the highest potential health risk to local residents.

  12. An Overview of Risk Quantification Issues for Digitalized Nuclear Power Plants using a Static Fault Tree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Kim, Man Cheol; Lee, Seung Jun; Lee, Ho Jung; Eom, Heung Seop; Chol, Jong Gyun; Jang, Seung Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-08-15

    Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I and C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system

  13. Procedure for hazards analysis of plutonium gloveboxes used in analytical chemistry operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvin, W.L.

    1977-06-01

    A procedure is presented to identify and assess hazards associated with gloveboxes used for analytical chemistry operations involving plutonium. This procedure is based upon analytic tree methodology and it has been adapted from the US Energy Research and Development Administration's safety program, the Management Oversight and Risk Tree

  14. Rehabilitation Risk Management: Enabling Data Analytics with Quantified Self and Smart Home Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamper, Andreas; Eigner, Isabella; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bodendorf, Freimut

    2017-01-01

    A variety of acute and chronic diseases require rehabilitation at home after treatment. Outpatient rehabilitation is crucial for the quality of the medical outcome but is mainly performed without medical supervision. Non-Compliance can lead to severe health risks and readmission to the hospital. While the patient is closely monitored in the hospital, methods and technologies to identify risks at home have to be developed. We analyze state-of-the-art monitoring systems and technologies and show possibilities to transfer these technologies into rehabilitation monitoring. For this purpose, we analyze sensor technology from the field of Quantified Self and Smart Homes. The available sensor data from this consumer grade technology is summarized to give an overview of the possibilities for medical data analytics. Subsequently, we show a conceptual roadmap to transfer data analytics methods to sensor based rehabilitation risk management.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment using event tables and the BNL [Brookhaven National Laboratory] event-tree analyzer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Shier, W.G.

    1989-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is being used to study design alternatives for the advanced neutron source research reactor being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for operation in the 1990s. Major communication paths between the designers and the safety analysts are accident discussions supported by event tables, event-tree graphics, and accident sequence probabilities. The BETA code used in conjunction with a word processor provides this linkage. This paper describes the process, features of the BETA, how it works, and some examples of usage

  16. Bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) for coronary heart disease risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabahi, Farnaz

    2018-04-04

    Rooted deeply in medical multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), risk assessment is very important especially when applied to the risk of being affected by deadly diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD risk assessment is a stochastic, uncertain, and highly dynamic process influenced by various known and unknown variables. In recent years, there has been a great interest in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), a popular methodology for dealing with uncertainty in MCDM. This paper proposes a new FAHP, bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) that augments two aspects of knowledge, probability and validity, to fuzzy numbers to better deal with uncertainty. In BFAHP, fuzzy validity is computed by aggregating the validities of relevant risk factors based on expert knowledge and collective intelligence. By considering both soft and statistical data, we compute the fuzzy probability of risk factors using the Bayesian formulation. In BFAHP approach, these fuzzy validities and fuzzy probabilities are used to construct a reciprocal comparison matrix. We then aggregate fuzzy probabilities and fuzzy validities in a pairwise manner for each risk factor and each alternative. BFAHP decides about being affected and not being affected by ranking of high and low risks. For evaluation, the proposed approach is applied to the risk of being affected by CHD using a real dataset of 152 patients of Iranian hospitals. Simulation results confirm that adding validity in a fuzzy manner can accrue more confidence of results and clinically useful especially in the face of incomplete information when compared with actual results. Applying the proposed BFAHP on CHD risk assessment of the dataset, it yields high accuracy rate above 85% for correct prediction. In addition, this paper recognizes that the risk factors of diastolic blood pressure in men and high-density lipoprotein in women are more important in CHD than other risk factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All

  17. Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

    2013-09-01

    The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Brad; Ogle, Kiona; Zanne, Amy E; Woodall, Christopher W

    2018-01-01

    When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests requires predicting when snags fall as wood decay erodes mechanical resistance to breaking forces. Previous studies have pointed to common predictors, such as stem size, degree of decay and species identity, but few have assessed the relative strength of underlying mechanisms driving snag fall across biomes. Here, we analyze nearly 100,000 repeated snag observations from boreal to subtropical forests across the eastern United States to show that wood decay controls snag fall in ways that could generate previously unrecognized forest-climate feedback. Warmer locations where wood decays quickly had much faster rates of snag fall. The effect of temperature on snag fall was so strong that in a simple forest C model, anticipated warming by mid-century reduced snag C by 22%. Furthermore, species-level differences in wood decay resistance (durability) accurately predicted the timing of snag fall. Differences in half-life for standing dead trees were similar to expected differences in the service lifetimes of wooden structures built from their timber. Strong effects of temperature and wood durability imply future forests where dying trees fall and decay faster than at present, reducing terrestrial C storage and snag-dependent wildlife habitat. These results can improve the representation of forest C cycling and assist forest managers by helping predict when a dead tree may fall.

  19. Probabilistic risk analysis and fault trees: Initial discussion of application to identification of risk at a wellhead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C.; Silliman, S.

    2012-02-01

    Wellhead protection is of critical importance for managing groundwater resources. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for addressing wellhead protection in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health of the receiving population are limited. It is herein suggested that probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) provides a structure whereby chemical transport can be combined with uncertainties in source, chemistry, and health impact to assess the probability of negative health outcomes in the population. As such, PRA-FT provides a new strategy for the identification of areas of probabilistically high human health risk. Application of this approach is demonstrated through a simplified case study involving flow to a well in an unconfined aquifer with heterogeneity in aquifer properties and contaminant sources.

  20. Recent Development in Big Data Analytics for Business Operations and Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Chan, Hing Kai; Yue, Xiaohang

    2017-01-01

    "Big data" is an emerging topic and has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners in industrial systems engineering and cybernetics. Big data analytics would definitely lead to valuable knowledge for many organizations. Business operations and risk management can be a beneficiary as there are many data collection channels in the related industrial systems (e.g., wireless sensor networks, Internet-based systems, etc.). Big data research, however, is still in its infancy. Its focus is rather unclear and related studies are not well amalgamated. This paper aims to present the challenges and opportunities of big data analytics in this unique application domain. Technological development and advances for industrial-based business systems, reliability and security of industrial systems, and their operational risk management are examined. Important areas for future research are also discussed and revealed.

  1. Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de.

    1984-01-01

    This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

  2. TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Arustamov

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

  3. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  4. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Armenakis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

  6. The challenge of making ozone risk assessment for forest trees more mechanistic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matyssek, R.; Sandermann, H.; Wieser, G.; Booker, F.; Cieslik, S.; Musselman, R.; Ernst, D.

    2008-01-01

    Upcoming decades will experience increasing atmospheric CO 2 and likely enhanced O 3 exposure which represents a risk for the carbon sink strength of forests, so that the need for cause-effect related O 3 risk assessment increases. Although assessment will gain in reliability on an O 3 uptake basis, risk is co-determined by the effective dose, i.e. the plant's sensitivity per O 3 uptake. Recent progress in research on the molecular and metabolic control of the effective O 3 dose is reported along with advances in empirically assessing O 3 uptake at the whole-tree and stand level. Knowledge on both O 3 uptake and effective dose (measures of stress avoidance and tolerance, respectively) needs to be understood mechanistically and linked as a pre-requisite before practical use of process-based O 3 risk assessment can be implemented. To this end, perspectives are derived for validating and promoting new O 3 flux-based modelling tools. - Clarifying and linking mechanisms of O 3 uptake and effective dose are research challenges highlighted in view of recent progress and perspectives towards cause-effect based risk assessment

  7. Analyzing systemic risk using non-linear marginal expected shortfall and its minimum spanning tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Chang, Woojin

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose a new theoretical framework for analyzing the systemic risk using the marginal expected shortfall (MES) and its correlation-based minimum spanning tree (MST). At first, we develop two parametric models of MES with their closed-form solutions based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Our models are derived from the non-symmetric quadratic form, which allows them to consolidate the non-linear relationship between the stock and market returns. Secondly, we discover the evidences related to the utility of our models and the possible association in between the non-linear relationship and the emergence of severe systemic risk by considering the US financial system as a benchmark. In this context, the evolution of MES also can be regarded as a reasonable proxy of systemic risk. Lastly, we analyze the structural properties of the systemic risk using the MST based on the computed series of MES. The topology of MST conveys the presence of sectoral clustering and strong co-movements of systemic risk leaded by few hubs during the crisis. Specifically, we discover that the Depositories are the majority sector leading the connections during the Non-Crisis period, whereas the Broker-Dealers are majority during the Crisis period.

  8. Prioritization of chemicals in the aquatic environment based on risk assessment: analytical, modeling and regulatory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, D; Ginebreda, A; Farré, M; Darbra, R M; Petrovic, M; Gros, M; Barceló, D

    2012-12-01

    The extensive and intensive use of chemicals in our developed, highly technological society includes more than 100,000 chemical substances. Significant scientific evidence has lead to the recognition that their improper use and release may result in undesirable and harmful side-effects on both the human and ecosystem health. To cope with them, appropriate risk assessment processes and related prioritization schemes have been developed in order to provide the necessary scientific support for regulatory procedures. In the present paper, two of the elements that constitute the core of risk assessment, namely occurrence and hazard effects, have been discussed. Recent advances in analytical chemistry (sample pre-treatment and instrumental equipment, etc.) have allowed for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental pollution reaching limits of detection up to sub ng L(-1). Alternative to analytical measurements, occurrence models can provide risk managers with a very interesting approach for estimating environmental concentrations from real or hypothetical scenarios. The most representative prioritization schemes used for issuing lists of concerning chemicals have also been examined and put in the context of existing environmental policies for protection strategies and regulations. Finally, new challenges in the field of risk-assessment have been outlined, including those posed by new materials (i.e., nanomaterials), transformation products, multi-chemical exposure, or extension of the risk assessment process to the whole ecosystem. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk assessment of occupational groups working in open pit mining: Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaşar Kasap

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In open pit mining it is possible to prevent industrial accidents and the results of industrial accidents such as deaths, physical disabilities and financial loss by implementing risk analyses in advance. If the probabilities of different occupational groups encountering various hazards are determined, workers’ risk of having industrial accidents and catching occupational illnesses can be controlled. In this sense, the aim of this study was to assess the industrial accidents which occurred during open pit coal production in the Turkish Coal Enterprises (TCE Garp Lignite unit between 2005 and 2010 and to analyze the risks using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. The analyses conducted with AHP revealed that the greatest risk in open pit mining is landslides, the most risky occupational group is unskilled labourers and the most common hazards are caused by landslides and transportation/hand tools/falling.

  10. Fault trees and the impact of human variability on probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    It has long been recognized that human reliability is an important factor in probabilistic risk analysis. In the field, this is true in a direct operational sense as well as in the areas of installation and maintenance. The interest in quantification arises from the desire to achieve optimum design in the human factors sense (operability-maintainability) and from the need to include human reliability considerations in probabilistic risk analysis to achieve complete and valid risk evaluation. In order to integrate human reliability into the system analysis, it is necessary to consider two questions. These relate to the way that human functions fit into the existing analytical models and methods as well as the nature of human failure mechanisms, modes and failure (error) rates

  11. Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Charles Awoala

    For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

  12. Using Cutting-Edge Tree-Based Stochastic Models to Predict Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Halteh

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is a critical issue that affects banks and companies on a global scale. Possessing the ability to accurately predict the level of credit risk has the potential to help the lender and borrower. This is achieved by alleviating the number of loans provided to borrowers with poor financial health, thereby reducing the number of failed businesses, and, in effect, preventing economies from collapsing. This paper uses state-of-the-art stochastic models, namely: Decision trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient boosting to add to the current literature on credit-risk modelling. The Australian mining industry has been selected to test our methodology. Mining in Australia generates around $138 billion annually, making up more than half of the total goods and services. This paper uses publicly-available financial data from 750 risky and not risky Australian mining companies as variables in our models. Our results indicate that stochastic gradient boosting was the superior model at correctly classifying the good and bad credit-rated companies within the mining sector. Our model showed that ‘Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE turnover’, ‘Invested Capital Turnover’, and ‘Price over Earnings Ratio (PER’ were the variables with the best explanatory power pertaining to predicting credit risk in the Australian mining sector.

  13. A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

    2018-01-01

    One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

  14. Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Feon W; Gao, Xiang; Bao, Le; Mitchell, Diane C; Wood, Craig; Sliwinski, Martin J; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen; Still, Christopher D; Rolston, David D K; Jensen, Gordon L

    2017-07-01

    To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to construct a risk stratification algorithm for developing functional limitation based on BMI and other potential risk factors for disability in 1,951 older adults without functional limitations at baseline (baseline age 73.1 ± 4.2 y). We also analyzed the data with multivariate stepwise logistic regression and compared the two approaches (e.g., cross-validation). Over a mean of 9.2 ± 1.7 years of follow-up, 221 individuals developed functional limitation. Higher BMI, age, and comorbidity were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline using both methods. Based on these factors, individuals were stratified into four risk groups via the conditional inference tree analysis. Compared to the low-risk group, all other groups had a significantly higher risk of developing functional limitation. The odds ratio comparing two extreme categories was 9.09 (95% confidence interval: 4.68, 17.6). Higher BMI, age, and comorbid disease were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline among older individuals across all approaches and analyses. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  15. Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

  16. Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

    2018-03-01

    Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

  17. Sleeping site selection by agile gibbons: the influence of tree stability, fruit availability and predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheyne, Susan M; Höing, Andrea; Rinear, John; Sheeran, Lori K

    2012-01-01

    Primates spend a significant proportion of their lives at sleeping sites: the selection of a secure and stable sleeping tree can be crucial for individual survival and fitness. We measured key characteristics of all tree species in which agile gibbons slept, including exposure of the tree crown, root system, height, species and presence of food. Gibbons most frequently slept in Dipterocarpaceae and Fabaceae trees and preferentially chose trees taller than average, slept above the mean canopy height and showed a preference for liana-free trees. These choices could reflect avoidance of competition with other frugivores, but we argue these choices reflect gibbons prioritizing avoidance of predation. The results highlight that gibbons are actively selecting and rejecting sleeping trees based on several characteristics. The importance of the presence of large trees for food is noted and provides insight into gibbon antipredatory behaviour. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Photo guide for estimating risk to hardwood trees during prescribed burning operations in eastern oak forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick H. Brose

    2009-01-01

    A field guide of 40 photographs of common hardwood trees of eastern oak forests and fuel loadings surrounding their bases. The guide contains instructions on how to rapidly assess a tree's likelihood to be damaged or killed by prescribed burning.

  19. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, Izak Johannes, III

    Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

  20. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

    2016-12-01

    The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

  1. Using Evidence-Based Decision Trees Instead of Formulas to Identify At-Risk Readers. REL 2014-036

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov; Foorman, Barbara R.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines whether the classification and regression tree (CART) model improves the early identification of students at risk for reading comprehension difficulties compared with the more difficult to interpret logistic regression model. CART is a type of predictive modeling that relies on nonparametric techniques. It presents results in…

  2. Prevalence of risk factors for stuttering among boys: analytical cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Moço Canhetti Oliveira

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:There have been few studies on the risk factors for subgroups of stuttering. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk factors for developmental familial stuttering among boys who stutter and who do not stutter, such as disfluency types, associated quality and communication factors, emotional and physical stress, familial attitudes and personal reactions.DESIGN AND SETTING:Analytical cross-sectional study with a control group, performed at the Fluency Studies Laboratory of the Department of Speech and Hearing Disorders of a public university.METHODS: The parents of 40 age-matched stuttering and non-stuttering boys took part in this study. The participants were divided into two groups: stuttering children (SC and non-stuttering children (NSC, with ages between 6 years 0 months and 11 years 11 months. Initially, all of the participants underwent a fluency assessment and then data were gathered using the Protocol for the Risk of Developmental Stuttering.RESULTS:There were no differences in the physical stress distribution factors and personal reactions between the groups. Inappropriate familial attitudes were presented by 95% of the SC and 30% of the NSC. Four risk factors analyzed were not shown by the NSC, namely stuttering-like disfluency, quality factors, physical stress and emotional stresses.CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest that the presence of stuttering-like disfluency, associated quality and communication factors, emotional stress and inappropriate family attitudes are important risk factors for familial developmental stuttering among boys.

  3. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

    2010-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

  4. Schistosoma mansoni reinfection: Analysis of risk factors by classification and regression tree (CART modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréa Gazzinelli

    Full Text Available Praziquantel (PZQ is an effective chemotherapy for schistosomiasis mansoni and a mainstay for its control and potential elimination. However, it does not prevent against reinfection, which can occur rapidly in areas with active transmission. A guide to ranking the risk factors for Schistosoma mansoni reinfection would greatly contribute to prioritizing resources and focusing prevention and control measures to prevent rapid reinfection. The objective of the current study was to explore the relationship among the socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological factors that can influence reinfection by S. mansoni one year after successful treatment with PZQ in school-aged children in Northeastern Minas Gerais state Brazil. Parasitological, socioeconomic, demographic, and water contact information were surveyed in 506 S. mansoni-infected individuals, aged 6 to 15 years, resident in these endemic areas. Eligible individuals were treated with PZQ until they were determined to be negative by the absence of S. mansoni eggs in the feces on two consecutive days of Kato-Katz fecal thick smear. These individuals were surveyed again 12 months from the date of successful treatment with PZQ. A classification and regression tree modeling (CART was then used to explore the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic, and epidemiological variables and their reinfection status. The most important risk factor identified for S. mansoni reinfection was their "heavy" infection at baseline. Additional analyses, excluding heavy infection status, showed that lower socioeconomic status and a lower level of education of the household head were also most important risk factors for S. mansoni reinfection. Our results provide an important contribution toward the control and possible elimination of schistosomiasis by identifying three major risk factors that can be used for targeted treatment and monitoring of reinfection. We suggest that control measures that target

  5. Functional-analytical capabilities of GIS technology in the study of water use risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nevidimova, O G; Yankovich, E P; Yankovich, K S

    2015-01-01

    Regional security aspects of economic activities are of great importance for legal regulation in environmental management. This has become a critical issue due to climate change, especially in regions where severe climate conditions have a great impact on almost all types of natural resource uses. A detailed analysis of climate and hydrological situation in Tomsk Oblast considering water use risks was carried out. Based on developed author's techniques an informational and analytical database was created using ArcGIS software platform, which combines statistical (quantitative) and spatial characteristics of natural hazards and socio-economic factors. This system was employed to perform areal zoning according to the degree of water use risks involved

  6. Generation Risk Assessment Using Fault Trees and Turbine Cycle Simulation: Case Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Park, Jin Kyun

    2009-01-01

    Since 2007, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and Kyung Hee University have collaborated on the development of the framework to quantify human errors broken out during the test and maintenance (T and M) in secondary systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The project entitled 'Development of Causality Analyzer for Maintenance/Test Tasks in Nuclear Power Plants' for OPR1000 on the basis of the proposed framework is still on-going, and will come to fruition by 2010. The overall concept of GRA-HRE (Generation Risk Assessment for Human Related Events) which is the designation of the framework, and the quantification methods for evaluating risk and electric loss have introduced in other references. The originality emerged while implementing GRA-HRE could be evaluated in view of (1) recognizing the relative importance of human errors comparing with other types of mechanical and/or electrical failures, (2) providing the top-down path of the propagation of human errors by designating top events in the fault tree model as trip signals, and (3) analyzing electric loss using turbine cycle simulation. Recently, we were successfully to illustrate the applicability of GRA-HRE by simulating several abnormalities. Since the detailed methodologies were released enough to follow up, this paper is going to only exemplify the case studies

  7. The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

  8. Identifying Risk Factors for Drug Use in an Iranian Treatment Sample: A Prediction Approach Using Decision Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirabadizadeh, Alireza; Nezami, Hossein; Vaughn, Michael G; Nakhaee, Samaneh; Mehrpour, Omid

    2018-05-12

    Substance abuse exacts considerable social and health care burdens throughout the world. The aim of this study was to create a prediction model to better identify risk factors for drug use. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in South Khorasan Province, Iran. Of the total of 678 eligible subjects, 70% (n: 474) were randomly selected to provide a training set for constructing decision tree and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models. The remaining 30% (n: 204) were employed in a holdout sample to test the performance of the decision tree and MLR models. Predictive performance of different models was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the testing set. Independent variables were selected from demographic characteristics and history of drug use. For the decision tree model, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying people at risk for drug abuse were 66% and 75%, respectively, while the MLR model was somewhat less effective at 60% and 73%. Key independent variables in the analyses included first substance experience, age at first drug use, age, place of residence, history of cigarette use, and occupational and marital status. While study findings are exploratory and lack generalizability they do suggest that the decision tree model holds promise as an effective classification approach for identifying risk factors for drug use. Convergent with prior research in Western contexts is that age of drug use initiation was a critical factor predicting a substance use disorder.

  9. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  10. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  11. Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

    2014-11-01

    Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

  12. Mitigating Sports Injury Risks Using Internet of Things and Analytics Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, Gary B; Gupta, Ashish; Colston, Marisa A

    2018-03-12

    Sport injuries restrict participation, impose a substantial economic burden, and can have persisting adverse effects on health-related quality of life. The effective use of Internet of Things (IoT), when combined with analytics approaches, can improve player safety through identification of injury risk factors that can be addressed by targeted risk reduction training activities. Use of IoT devices can facilitate highly efficient quantification of relevant functional capabilities prior to sport participation, which could substantially advance the prevailing sport injury management paradigm. This study introduces a framework for using sensor-derived IoT data to supplement other data for objective estimation of each individual college football player's level of injury risk, which is an approach to injury prevention that has not been previously reported. A cohort of 45 NCAA Division I-FCS college players provided data in the form of self-ratings of persisting effects of previous injuries and single-leg postural stability test. Instantaneous change in body mass acceleration (jerk) during the test was quantified by a smartphone accelerometer, with data wirelessly transmitted to a secure cloud server. Injuries sustained from the beginning of practice sessions until the end of the 13-game season were documented, along with the number of games played by each athlete over the course of a 13-game season. Results demonstrate a strong prediction model. Our approach may have strong relevance to the estimation of injury risk for other physically demanding activities. Clearly, there is great potential for improvement of injury prevention initiatives through identification of individual athletes who possess elevated injury risk and targeted interventions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. A Methodology In Processing Descriptive Analytics Using MMDA Traffic Update Tweets Tokenization And Classification Tree In Discovering Knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tristan Jay P. Calaguas

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Traffic on National Capital Region of the Philippines is going as one of many problems facing by the local government and Filipino citizen who are residing in Metro Manila. In addition a Filipino citizen that is working in Metro Manila is experiencing a waste of Twenty Eight Thousand hours in traffic which results unproductivity. Due to traffic that causes long commutes it take away an individual from exercise activities that results fatigue in their health. In relation with this due to lack of exercise that causing by the traffic each year One Hundred Seventy Thousand Filipinos die from cardiovascular diseases up from Eighty Five Thousand more than Twenty years ago according to 2009 study by the Department of Health DOH. Population increase is one of many causes of traffic in Metro Manila. As population is growing the more car riders and commuters volume will be in the road including delivery trucks Pedi cabs jeeps and provincial buses that signify that there is a high employment rate in the country that causes traffic. However to sustain the public needs MMDA is the government agency that provides public services to Filipino citizens through providing updated public traffic information. For past years MMDA used Telephony lines and Television Broadcasting for traffic information dissemination which is very costly in maintenance that made them to adopt Twitter to post Traffic updates and advisories to the public .Since this government agency uses Twitter in disseminating information through posting tweet there is a need for a methodology on how these tweets will analyze so that citizens will have an insight in decision making to avoid specific time of traffic in metro manila. From this condition the researcher will adopt the use of MMDA tweets as the primary data source and apply the CRISP as the knowledge discovery standard processes that to be used in building methodology for descriptive analytics. In this experimental research several

  14. What Is Trust? Ethics and Risk Governance in Precision Medicine and Predictive Analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adjekum, Afua; Ienca, Marcello; Vayena, Effy

    2017-12-01

    Trust is a ubiquitous term used in emerging technology (e.g., Big Data, precision medicine), innovation policy, and governance literatures in particular. But what exactly is trust? Even though trust is considered a critical requirement for the successful deployment of precision medicine initiatives, nonetheless, there is a need for further conceptualization with regard to what qualifies as trust, and what factors might establish and sustain trust in precision medicine, predictive analytics, and large-scale biology. These new fields of 21st century medicine and health often deal with the "futures" and hence, trust gains a temporal and ever-present quality for both the present and the futures anticipated by new technologies and predictive analytics. We address these conceptual gaps that have important practical implications in the way we govern risk and unknowns associated with emerging technologies in biology, medicine, and health broadly. We provide an in-depth conceptual analysis and an operative definition of trust dynamics in precision medicine. In addition, we identify three main types of "trust facilitators": (1) technical, (2) ethical, and (3) institutional. This three-dimensional framework on trust is necessary to building and maintaining trust in 21st century knowledge-based innovations that governments and publics invest for progressive societal change, development, and sustainable prosperity. Importantly, we analyze, identify, and deliberate on the dimensions of precision medicine and large-scale biology that have carved out trust as a pertinent tool to its success. Moving forward, we propose a "points to consider" on how best to enhance trust in precision medicine and predictive analytics.

  15. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

    2015-03-01

    Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Silviculture and the assessment of climate change genetic risk for southern Appalachian forest tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara S. Crane

    2012-01-01

    Changing climate conditions and increasing insect and pathogen infestations will increase the likelihood that forest trees could experience population-level extirpation or species-level extinction during the next century. Gene conservation and silvicultural efforts to preserve forest tree genetic diversity present a particular challenge in species-rich regions such as...

  18. Hypoglycin A in maple trees in the Netherlands and the risk of equine atypical myopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westermann, C.M.; van Leeuwen, Robbert; Mol, Hans

    2016-01-01

    The Acer (maple) genus of trees comprises over 120 species worldwide. Some of these contain the plant-toxin hypoglycin-A which has been proven to be a cause of the highly fatal condition called atypical myopathy (AM) in horses and ponies. In an earlier study of maple-tree samples (leaves and seeds)

  19. Evaluation of the seasonal and annual abortifacient risk of western juniper trees on Oregon rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needles from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees are known to cause late term abortions in cattle. Recently, there have been several reports of abortion rates of 10-15% within cattle herds in Oregon after cattle were pastured in areas with abundant western juniper trees (Juniperus occidentalis)....

  20. A tree girdling beetle in Korogwe District: its potential risk to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was conducted to identify and assess damage of an insect pest girdling young Eucalypts in Korogwe Forest Plantation, Tanga. Purposive sampling was employed to establish 10 plots of 10m by 10m. A total of 90 trees were sampled. Insect pest specimens were collected and girdled trees counted in each plot. The

  1. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  2. Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

    OpenAIRE

    Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled fr...

  3. Combined prediction model for supply risk in nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry based on support vector machine and decision tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Chunsheng; Meng Dapeng

    2011-01-01

    The prediction index for supply risk is developed based on the factor identifying of nuclear equipment manufacturing industry. The supply risk prediction model is established with the method of support vector machine and decision tree, based on the investigation on 3 important nuclear power equipment manufacturing enterprises and 60 suppliers. Final case study demonstrates that the combination model is better than the single prediction model, and demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of this model, which provides a method to evaluate the suppliers and measure the supply risk. (authors)

  4. Application of the analytical hierarchy process to establish health care waste management systems that minimise infection risks in developing countries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Brent, AC

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available (see Fig. 2), and structured into the appropriate levels (see Table 2). These hier- archy trees are shown in Figs. 3–8 of Appendix A. 4. Results of the workshops 4.1. Definitions of the hierarchical trees The definitions of each hierarchical tree....349 NEC 0.045 EL 0.200 NEL 0.028 DP 0.292 NP 0.038 Alternatives Risk factors EC + EL + DP 1.0 nEC + EL + DP 1.6 EC + nEL + DP 1.3 nEC + nEL + DP 2.3 EC + EL + nP 1.4 nEC + EL + nP 3.0 A.C. Brent et al. / European Journal of Operational Research...

  5. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  6. Computational red teaming risk analytics of big-data-to-decisions intelligent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein A

    2015-01-01

    Written to bridge the information needs of management and computational scientists, this book presents the first comprehensive treatment of Computational Red Teaming (CRT).  The author describes an analytics environment that blends human reasoning and computational modeling to design risk-aware and evidence-based smart decision making systems. He presents the Shadow CRT Machine, which shadows the operations of an actual system to think with decision makers, challenge threats, and design remedies. This is the first book to generalize red teaming (RT) outside the military and security domains and it offers coverage of RT principles, practical and ethical guidelines. The author utilizes Gilbert’s principles for introducing a science. Simplicity: where the book follows a special style to make it accessible to a wide range of  readers. Coherence:  where only necessary elements from experimentation, optimization, simulation, data mining, big data, cognitive information processing, and system thinking are blend...

  7. Analytic Bayesian solution of the two-stage poisson-type problem in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohner, F.H.

    1985-01-01

    The basic purpose of probabilistic risk analysis is to make inferences about the probabilities of various postulated events, with an account of all relevant information such as prior knowledge and operating experience with the specific system under study, as well as experience with other similar systems. Estimation of the failure rate of a Poisson-type system leads to an especially simple Bayesian solution in closed form if the prior probabilty implied by the invariance properties of the problem is properly taken into account. This basic simplicity persists if a more realistic prior, representing order of magnitude knowledge of the rate parameter, is employed instead. Moreover, the more realistic prior allows direct incorporation of experience gained from other similar systems, without need to postulate a statistical model for an underlying ensemble. The analytic formalism is applied to actual nuclear reactor data

  8. The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

    2015-01-01

    There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

  9. Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Fang; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Yong; Fan, Qin-Ying; Wang, Lin

    2016-05-20

    In the past decades, studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China. With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years, available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China, especially with comparison between native residents and floating population. This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing. As useful methods to build a predictive model, Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia. A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics. The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia. Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months, and floating population, CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor, the maternal educational level, with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve. The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners. CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity. Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.

  10. Food risk perceptions, gender, and individual differences in avoidance and approach motivation, intuitive and analytic thinking styles, and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina; Lähteenmäki, Liisa

    2007-03-01

    Risks appear to be perceived in two different ways, affectively and rationally. Finnish adult internet users were contacted via e-mail and asked to fill an internet questionnaire consisting of questions of food risks and measures of avoidance and approach motivation, analytic and intuitive information processing style, trait anxiety, and gender in order to find out (1) whether food risks are perceived two-dimensionally, (2) how individual differences in motivation, information processing, and anxiety are associated with the different dimensions of food risk perceptions, and (3) whether gender moderates these associations. The data were analyzed by factor, correlation and regression analyses. Three factors emerged: risk scariness, risk likelihood, and risks of cardiovascular disease. Personality and gender x personality interactions predicted food risk perceptions. Results showed that food risk perceptions generally form two dimensions; scariness and likelihood, but that this may depend on the nature of the risk. In addition, results imply that individuals with high avoidance motivation perceive food risks as scarier and more likely than others, and that individuals with an analytic information processing style perceive food risks as less likely than others. Trait anxiety seems to be associated with higher food risk perceptions only among men.

  11. Risk-informed Analytical Approaches to Concentration Averaging for the Purpose of Waste Classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esh, D.W.; Pinkston, K.E.; Barr, C.S.; Bradford, A.H.; Ridge, A.Ch.

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has developed a concentration averaging approach and guidance for the review of Department of Energy (DOE) non-HLW determinations. Although the approach was focused on this specific application, concentration averaging is generally applicable to waste classification and thus has implications for waste management decisions as discussed in more detail in this paper. In the United States, radioactive waste has historically been classified into various categories for the purpose of ensuring that the disposal system selected is commensurate with the hazard of the waste such that public health and safety will be protected. However, the risk from the near-surface disposal of radioactive waste is not solely a function of waste concentration but is also a function of the volume (quantity) of waste and its accessibility. A risk-informed approach to waste classification for near-surface disposal of low-level waste would consider the specific characteristics of the waste, the quantity of material, and the disposal system features that limit accessibility to the waste. NRC staff has developed example analytical approaches to estimate waste concentration, and therefore waste classification, for waste disposed in facilities or with configurations that were not anticipated when the regulation for the disposal of commercial low-level waste (i.e. 10 CFR Part 61) was developed. (authors)

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 4. System reliability and analysis techniques sessions B/C - event trees/fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.; Young, J.

    1985-08-01

    This course will employ a combination of lecture material and practical problem solving in order to develop competence and understanding of th principles and techniques of event tree and fault tree analysis. The role of these techniques in the overall context of PRA will be described. The emphasis of this course will be on the basic, traditional methods of event tree and fault tree analysis

  13. The risk evaluation of difficult substances in USES 2.0 and EUSES. A decision tree for data gap filling of Kow, Koc and BCF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beelen P van; ECO

    2000-01-01

    This report presents a decision tree for the risk evaluation of the so-called "difficult" substances with the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES). The decision tree gives practical guidelines for the regulatory authorities to evaluate notified substances like organometallic

  14. CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

    2015-01-01

    The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratiodecisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

  15. Analytical approaches to the determination of simple biophenols in forest trees such as Acer (maple), Betula (birch), Coniferus, Eucalyptus, Juniperus (cedar), Picea (spruce) and Quercus (oak).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedgood, Danny R; Bishop, Andrea G; Prenzler, Paul D; Robards, Kevin

    2005-06-01

    Analytical methods are reviewed for the determination of simple biophenols in forest trees such as Acer (maple), Betula (birch), Coniferus, Eucalyptus, Juniperus (cedar), Picea (spruce) and Quercus (oak). Data are limited but nevertheless clearly establish the critical importance of sample preparation and pre-treatment in the analysis. For example, drying methods invariably reduce the recovery of biophenols and this is illustrated by data for birch leaves where flavonoid glycosides were determined as 12.3 +/- 0.44 mg g(-1) in fresh leaves but 9.7 +/- 0.35 mg g(-1) in air-dried samples (data expressed as dry weight). Diverse sample handling procedures have been employed for recovery of biophenols. The range of biophenols and diversity of sample types precludes general procedural recommendations. Caution is necessary in selecting appropriate procedures as the high reactivity of these compounds complicates their analysis. Moreover, our experience suggests that their reactivity is very dependent on the matrix. The actual measurement is less contentious and high performance separation methods particularly liquid chromatography dominate analyses whilst coupled techniques involving electrospray ionization are becoming routine particularly for qualitative applications. Quantitative data are still the exception and are summarized for representative species that dominate the forest canopy of various habitats. Reported concentrations for simple phenols range from trace level (<0.1 microg g(-1)) to in excess of 500 microg g(-1) depending on a range of factors. Plant tissue is one of these variables but various biotic and abiotic processes such as stress are also important considerations.

  16. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  17. Applying decision tree for identification of a low risk population for type 2 diabetes. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramezankhani, Azra; Pournik, Omid; Shahrabi, Jamal; Khalili, Davood; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to create a prediction model using data mining approach to identify low risk individuals for incidence of type 2 diabetes, using the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) database. For a 6647 population without diabetes, aged ≥20 years, followed for 12 years, a prediction model was developed using classification by the decision tree technique. Seven hundred and twenty-nine (11%) diabetes cases occurred during the follow-up. Predictor variables were selected from demographic characteristics, smoking status, medical and drug history and laboratory measures. We developed the predictive models by decision tree using 60 input variables and one output variable. The overall classification accuracy was 90.5%, with 31.1% sensitivity, 97.9% specificity; and for the subjects without diabetes, precision and f-measure were 92% and 0.95, respectively. The identified variables included fasting plasma glucose, body mass index, triglycerides, mean arterial blood pressure, family history of diabetes, educational level and job status. In conclusion, decision tree analysis, using routine demographic, clinical, anthropometric and laboratory measurements, created a simple tool to predict individuals at low risk for type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Comparison between Decision Tree and Random Forest in Determining the Risk Factors Associated with Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaily, Habibollah; Tayefi, Maryam; Doosti, Hassan; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid; Nezami, Hossein; Amirabadizadeh, Alireza

    2018-04-24

    We aimed to identify the associated risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using data mining approach, decision tree and random forest techniques using the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorders (MASHAD) Study program. A cross-sectional study. The MASHAD study started in 2010 and will continue until 2020. Two data mining tools, namely decision trees, and random forests, are used for predicting T2DM when some other characteristics are observed on 9528 subjects recruited from MASHAD database. This paper makes a comparison between these two models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the area under ROC curve. The prevalence rate of T2DM was 14% among these subjects. The decision tree model has 64.9% accuracy, 64.5% sensitivity, 66.8% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 68.6%, while the random forest model has 71.1% accuracy, 71.3% sensitivity, 69.9% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 77.3% respectively. The random forest model, when used with demographic, clinical, and anthropometric and biochemical measurements, can provide a simple tool to identify associated risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Such identification can substantially use for managing the health policy to reduce the number of subjects with T2DM .

  19. Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

    2015-11-11

    Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

  20. Learning Analytics at Low Cost: At-Risk Student Prediction with Clicker Data and Systematic Proactive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Samuel P. M.; Lam, S. S.; Li, Kam Cheong; Wong, Billy T. M.

    2018-01-01

    While learning analytics (LA) practices have been shown to be practical and effective, most of them require a huge amount of data and effort. This paper reports a case study which demonstrates the feasibility of practising LA at a low cost for instructors to identify at-risk students in an undergraduate business quantitative methods course.…

  1. An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

    2015-01-01

    A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

  2. Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

    2015-01-01

    Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

  3. Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aline Frank; Glenn T. Howe; Christoph Sperisen; Peter Brang; Brad St. Clair; Dirk R. Schmatz; Caroline Heiri

    2017-01-01

    Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest...

  4. Calculating Adversarial Risk from Attack Trees: Control Strength and Probabilistic Attackers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, Wolter; Davarynejad, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Attack trees are a well-known formalism for quantitative analysis of cyber attacks consisting of multiple steps and alternative paths. It is possible to derive properties of the overall attacks from properties of individual steps, such as cost for the attacker and probability of success. However, in

  5. Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

    2017-11-01

    Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for

  6. PENENTUAN FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH DALAM FAULTY BEHAVIOR RISK MELALUI PENDEKATAN METODE FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizal Irfan Fuadi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Manajemen keselamatan merupakan pengorganisasian, sumber daya manusia, kebijakan dan prosedur interaktif yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi kemungkinan kerusakan dan kerugian di tempat kerja. Salah satu cara untuk memperbaiki manajemen keselamatan di perusahaan adalah dengan melakukan penelitian mengenai faktor yang berpengaruh dalam risiko kesalahan perilaku. Secara umum, faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keselamatan kerja tidak memiliki struktur fisik. Untuk itu, maka masalah pada kondisi nyata dapat direpresentasikan dengan cara yang lebih baik menggunakan angka fuzzy untuk mengevaluasi faktor-faktor ini. Pada penelitian ini, pendekatan Fuzzy AHP bertujuan untuk menentukan tingkat Faulty Behavior Risk (FBR pada sistem kerja.Penentuan faktor yang berpengaruh dalam Faulty Behavior Risk (FBR/risiko dari perilaku yang salah dimulai dengan menentukan responden, penyusunan kuesioner, uji validitas dan reliabilitas, hasil dari kuesioner dijadikan inputan dalam pengolahan data dengan metode FuzzyAnalytic Hierachy Process (FAHP. Kuesioner ini dibuat berdasarkan konsep safety management yang terdiri dari 4 faktor, yaitu faktor organisasi, faktor pribadi, faktor pekerjaan dan faktor lingkungan. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada Bay 2.1 yang memproduksi panel dan bay 7.1 yang memproduksi finning. Berdasarkan perhitungan FBR pada bay 2.1 menunjukkan nilai 0,4793 yang berarti risiko kesalahan perilaku di antara batas bawah (0,25 dan batas atas (0,50. Sedangkan pada bay 7.1 sebesar 0,5317 yang berarti risiko kesalahan perilaku memiliki potensi tinggi karena berada di atas batas atas. Dari hasil penentuan FBR didapatkan nilai  pada bay 2.1 yang memiliki risiko penyebab tertinggi terdapat pada sub faktor kurang persiapan (0,0788 sedangkan pada bay 7.1 dengan nilai FBR sebesar 0,5317 yang memiliki risiko tertinggi terdapat pada sub faktor kelelahan kerja (0,0970. Melalui penelitian ini, faktor penyebab kesalahan perilaku kerja dapat diketahui dan diberikan

  7. International study of risk-mitigating factors and in-flight allergic reactions to peanut and tree nut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhawt, Matthew; MacGillivray, Fiona; Batty, Geraldine; Said, Maria; Weiss, Christopher

    2013-03-01

    Three studies have analyzed in-flight peanut/tree nut reactions, although the studies were conducted exclusively among Americans. We studied the international in-flight experience and determined the efficacy of certain risk-mitigation strategies. A 47-question on-line survey was distributed through the websites and social media outlets of the member organizations of the Food Allergy & Anaphylaxis Alliance. Both persons reporting an in-flight reaction and nonreactors were surveyed to assess details of air travel preparation and any reported reaction. Data were analyzed to determine the association among flying behaviors, reported reactions, and nationality. We found that 349 reactions were reported among 3273 respondents from 11 countries; 13.3% received epinephrine as treatment. Flight crews were notified about 50.1% of reactions. Sixty-nine percent of all respondents reported making a preflight accommodation request, although just 55% of reactors did so compared with 71.6% of nonreactors (P airline pillows or blankets, requested a buffer zone, requested other passengers not consume peanut/tree nut-containing products, or reported not consuming airline-provided food had significantly lower adjusted odds of reporting a reaction. In-flight peanut and tree nut reactions occur internationally. Epinephrine was sparsely used to treat reactions. We identified 8 risk-mitigating behaviors associated with lower odds of a reported reaction. Future study is necessary to further validate the effectiveness of these passenger-initiated risk-mitigating behaviors. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  9. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Fault Trees as Tools in Improving the Delineation of Wellhead Protection Areas: An Initial Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.

    2010-12-01

    Delineation of a wellhead protection area (WHPA) is a critical component of managing / protecting the aquifer(s) supplying potable water to a public water-supply well. While a number of previous authors have addressed questions related to uncertainties in advective capture zones, methods for assessing WHPAs in the presence of uncertainty in the chemistry of groundwater contaminants, the relationship between land-use and contaminant sources, and the impact on health risk within the receiving population are more limited. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) combined with fault trees (FT) addresses this latter challenge by providing a structure whereby four key WHPA issues may be addressed: (i) uncertainty in land-use practices and chemical release, (ii) uncertainty in groundwater flow, (iii) variability in natural attenuation properties (and/or remediation) of the contaminants, and (iv) estimated health risk from contaminant arrival at a well. The potential utility of PRA-FT in this application is considered through a simplified case study involving management decisions related both to regional land use planning and local land-use zoning regulation. An application-specific fault tree is constructed to visualize and identify the events required for health risk failure at the well and a Monte Carlo approach is used to create multiple realizations of groundwater flow and chemical transport to a well in a model of a simple, unconfined aquifer. Model parameters allowed to vary during this simplified case study include hydraulic conductivity, probability of a chemical spill (related to land use variation in space), and natural attenuation through variation in rate of decay of the contaminant. Numerical results are interpreted in association with multiple land-use management scenarios as well as multiple cancer risk assumptions regarding the contaminant arriving at the well. This case study shows significant variability of health risk at the well, however general trends were

  10. Using the Analytical Network Process to Select the Best Strategy for Reducing Risks in a Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Hosseini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers four types of the most prominent risks in the supply chain. Their subcriteria and relations between them and within the network are also considered. In a supply chain, risks are mostly created by fluctuations. The aim of this study is to adopt a strategy for eliminating or reducing risks in a supply chain network. Having various solutions helps the supply chain to be resilient. Therefore, five alternatives are considered, namely, total quality management (TQM, leanness, alignment, adaptability, and agility. This paper develops a new network of supply chain risks by considering the interactions between risks. Perhaps, the network elements have interacted with some or all of the factors (clusters or subfactors. We constitute supply chain risks in the analytic network process (ANP, which attracted less attention in the previous studies. Most of the studies about making a decision in supply chains have been applied in analytic hierarchy process (AHP network. The present study considers the ANP as a well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM technique to choose the best alternative, because of the interdependency and feedbacks of different levels of the network. Finally, the ANP selects TQM as the best alternative among the considered ones.

  11. Assessing and monitoring the risk of desertification in Dobrogea, Romania, using Landsat data and decision tree classifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorovencii, Iosif

    2015-04-01

    The risk of the desertification of a part of Romania is increasingly evident, constituting a serious problem for the environment and the society. This article attempts to assess and monitor the risk of desertification in Dobrogea using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images acquired in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2011. In order to assess the risk of desertification, we used as indicators the Modified Soil Adjustment Vegetation Index 1 (MSAVI1), the Moving Standard Deviation Index (MSDI) and the albedo, indices relating to the vegetation conditions, the landscape pattern and micrometeorology. The decision tree classifier (DTC) was also used on the basis of pre-established rules, and maps displaying six grades of desertification risk were obtained: non, very low, low, medium, high and severe. Land surface temperature (LST) was also used for the analysis. The results indicate that, according to pre-established rules for the period of 1987-2011, there are two grades of desertification risk that have an ascending trend in Dobrogea, namely very low and medium desertification. An investigation into the causes of the desertification risk revealed that high temperature is the main factor, accompanied by the destruction of forest shelterbelts and of the irrigation system and, to a smaller extent, by the fragmentation of agricultural land and the deforestation in the study area.

  12. Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.

    2017-11-01

    Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occurs, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These

  13. Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

    2016-12-01

    Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

  14. Bridging Two Worlds: Reconciling Practical Risk Assessment Methodologies with Theory of Attack Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga; Harpes, Carlo; Mauw, Sjouke; Muller, Cedric; Muller, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Security risk treatment often requires a complex cost-benefit analysis to be carried out in order to select countermeasures that optimally reduce risks while having minimal costs. According to ISO/IEC 27001, risk treatment relies on catalogues of countermeasures, and the analysts are expected to

  15. The Use of Analytic Network Process for Risk Assessment in Production of Renewable Energy from Agriculture Biomass in Latvia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandija Rivza

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is an important factor for successful and sustainable entrepreneurship of bioenergy production that has become one of the priorities in energy sector of Latvia. Promotion of the use of renewable energy is included as one of the strategic goals for European Union (EU and Latvia. As this field of energy production in Latvia is rather new and scantily explored there are many risk factors arising in different stages of production, starting with planning and building of a bioreactor and ending with production and further use and distribution of energy. The present research focuses on risk assessment in renewable energy production form biomass as this kind of energy is seen as a perspective source for renewable energy under the conditions of Latvia. A risk assessment module for renewable energy production made by using the Analytic Network Process (ANP software is described in the paper.

  16. Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P.

    2017-01-01

    The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk\\ud perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that\\ud it is possible to define a benchmark ‘real’ risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk\\ud perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly\\ud problematic when there are high leve...

  17. Risk assessments for forest trees: The performance of the ozone flux versus the AOT concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, P.E.; Braun, S.; Broadmeadow, M.; Elvira, S.; Emberson, L.; Gimeno, B.S.; Le Thiec, D.; Novak, K.; Oksanen, E.; Schaub, M.; Uddling, J.; Wilkinson, M.

    2007-01-01

    Published ozone exposure-response relationships from experimental studies with young trees performed at different sites across Europe were re-analysed in order to test the performance of ozone exposure indices based on AOTX (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of X nmol mol -1 ) and AF st Y (Accumulated Stomatal Flux above a threshold of Y nmol m -2 s -1 ). AF st 1.6 was superior, as compared to AOT40, for explaining biomass reductions, when ozone sensitive species with differing leaf morphology were included in the analysis, while this was not the case for less sensitive species. A re-analysis of data with young black cherry trees, subject to different irrigation regimes, indicated that leaf visible injuries were more strongly related to the estimated stomatal ozone uptake, as compared to the ozone concentration in the air. Experimental data with different clones of silver birch indicated that leaf thickness was also an important factor influencing the development of ozone induced leaf visible injury. - Ozone stomatal flux based indices were superior, as compared to AOT40, for explaining biomass reductions and leaf visible injury

  18. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

  20. An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    There is increasing interest for agencies and industries to develop risk management processes for a wide variety of applications. Traditional risk management processes are motivated by controlling risk and avoiding losses. In contrast, other organizational processes focus on managing performance and value generation. In this paper we argue that risk management also adds an important contribution to these processes. However, this requires “proper” risk management extending beyond narrow safety oriented perspectives built on quantitative risk analysis and tolerability/acceptance criteria. There is need for a broad risk-performance framework with uncertainty being a main component of risk, and where knowledge and surprises are adequately reflected. In the paper we present and discuss such a framework. The framework is developed on the basis of an analysis of combinations of different risk management and performance management practices/policies. We show how the risk and performance management processes can be improved by proper risk conceptualization and a holistic thinking on how to develop and use goals in the organization, how to balance different concerns, and consider the need for agility – “sensitivity to operations”, as well as how to give weight to vulnerabilities, resilience, and antifragility. - Highlights: • We relate key performance management and risk management principles. • We propose an enhanced framework to unify thinking of performance and risk. • We apply the framework to a public-private partnership case study.

  1. Group Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Bridges, John; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria.

  2. Development of an analytical method to assess the occupational health risk of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies using LC-HRMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinders, Lars M H; Klassen, Martin D; Jaeger, Martin; Teutenberg, Thorsten; Tuerk, Jochen

    2018-04-01

    Monoclonal antibodies are a group of commonly used therapeutics, whose occupational health risk is still discussed controversially. The long-term low-dose exposure side effects are insufficiently evaluated; hence, discussions are often based on a theoretical level or extrapolating side effects from therapeutic dosages. While some research groups recommend applying the precautionary principle for monoclonal antibodies, others consider the exposure risk too low for measures taken towards occupational health and safety. However, both groups agree that airborne monoclonal antibodies have the biggest risk potential. Therefore, we developed a peptide-based analytical method for occupational exposure monitoring of airborne monoclonal antibodies. The method will allow collecting data about the occupational exposure to monoclonal antibodies. Thus, the mean daily intake for personnel in pharmacies and the pharmaceutical industry can be determined for the first time and will help to substantiate the risk assessment by relevant data. The introduced monitoring method includes air sampling, sample preparation and detection by liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry of individual monoclonal antibodies as well as sum parameter. For method development and validation, a chimeric (rituximab), humanised (trastuzumab) and a fully humanised (daratumumab) monoclonal antibody are used. A limit of detection between 1 μg per sample for daratumumab and 25 μg per sample for the collective peptide is achieved. Graphical abstract Demonstration of the analytical workflow, from the release of monoclonal antibodies to the detection as single substances as well as sum parameter.

  3. Understanding suicide risk within the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework: A meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, Catherine R; Kleiman, Evan M; Cha, Christine B; Deming, Charlene A; Franklin, Joseph C; Nock, Matthew K

    2018-01-01

    The field is in need of novel and transdiagnostic risk factors for suicide. The National Institute of Mental Health's Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) provides a framework that may help advance research on suicidal behavior. We conducted a meta-analytic review of existing prospective risk and protective factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (ideation, attempts, and deaths) that fall within one of the five RDoC domains or relate to a prominent suicide theory. Predictors were selected from a database of 4,082 prospective risk and protective factors for suicide outcomes. A total of 460 predictors met inclusion criteria for this meta-analytic review and most examined risk (vs. protective) factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. The overall effect of risk factors was statistically significant, but relatively small, in predicting suicide ideation (weighted mean odds ratio: wOR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.59-1.87), suicide attempt (wOR = 1.66 [1.57-1.76), and suicide death (wOR = 1.41 [1.24-1.60]). Across all suicide outcomes, most risk factors related to the Negative Valence Systems domain, although effect sizes were of similar magnitude across RDoC domains. This study demonstrated that the RDoC framework provides a novel and promising approach to suicide research; however, relatively few studies of suicidal behavior fit within this framework. Future studies must go beyond the "usual suspects" of suicide risk factors (e.g., mental disorders, sociodemographics) to understand the processes that combine to lead to this deadly outcome. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

    2016-01-07

    Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

  5. Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellegrini, Adam F A; Franco, Augusto C; Hoffmann, William A

    2016-03-01

    Numerous predictions indicate rising CO2 will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought-fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire-driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2-million km(2) Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait-based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate-carbon-fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1997-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

  7. Subject-enabled analytics model on measurement statistics in health risk expert system for public health informatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Chi-Jung; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Hsieh, Yun-Yu; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liang, Wen-Miin; Liao, Li-Na; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Hsueh-Chun

    2017-11-01

    This study applied open source technology to establish a subject-enabled analytics model that can enhance measurement statistics of case studies with the public health data in cloud computing. The infrastructure of the proposed model comprises three domains: 1) the health measurement data warehouse (HMDW) for the case study repository, 2) the self-developed modules of online health risk information statistics (HRIStat) for cloud computing, and 3) the prototype of a Web-based process automation system in statistics (PASIS) for the health risk assessment of case studies with subject-enabled evaluation. The system design employed freeware including Java applications, MySQL, and R packages to drive a health risk expert system (HRES). In the design, the HRIStat modules enforce the typical analytics methods for biomedical statistics, and the PASIS interfaces enable process automation of the HRES for cloud computing. The Web-based model supports both modes, step-by-step analysis and auto-computing process, respectively for preliminary evaluation and real time computation. The proposed model was evaluated by computing prior researches in relation to the epidemiological measurement of diseases that were caused by either heavy metal exposures in the environment or clinical complications in hospital. The simulation validity was approved by the commercial statistics software. The model was installed in a stand-alone computer and in a cloud-server workstation to verify computing performance for a data amount of more than 230K sets. Both setups reached efficiency of about 10 5 sets per second. The Web-based PASIS interface can be used for cloud computing, and the HRIStat module can be flexibly expanded with advanced subjects for measurement statistics. The analytics procedure of the HRES prototype is capable of providing assessment criteria prior to estimating the potential risk to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. An analytical model of stand dynamics as a function of tree growth, mortality and recruitment: the shade tolerance-stand structure hypothesis revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala, Miguel A; Angulo, Oscar; Bravo de la Parra, Rafael; López-Marcos, Juan C

    2007-02-07

    Light competition and interspecific differences in shade tolerance are considered key determinants of forest stand structure and dynamics. Specifically two main stand diameter distribution types as a function of shade tolerance have been proposed based on empirical observations. All-aged stands of shade tolerant species tend to have steeply descending, monotonic diameter distributions (inverse J-shaped curves). Shade intolerant species in contrast typically exhibit normal (unimodal) tree diameter distributions due to high mortality rates of smaller suppressed trees. In this study we explore the generality of this hypothesis which implies a causal relationship between light competition or shade tolerance and stand structure. For this purpose we formulate a partial differential equation system of stand dynamics as a function of individual tree growth, recruitment and mortality which allows us to explore possible individual-based mechanisms--e.g. light competition-underlying observed patterns of stand structure--e.g. unimodal or inverse J-shaped equilibrium diameter curves. We find that contrary to expectations interspecific differences in growth patterns can result alone in any of the two diameter distributions types observed in the field. In particular, slow growing species can present unimodal equilibrium curves even in the absence of light competition. Moreover, light competition and shade intolerance evaluated both at the tree growth and mortality stages did not have a significant impact on stand structure that tended to converge systematically towards an inverse J-shaped curves for most tree growth scenarios. Realistic transient stand dynamics for even aged stands of shade intolerant species (unimodal curves) were only obtained when recruitment was completely suppressed, providing further evidence on the critical role played by juvenile stages of tree development (e.g. the sampling stage) on final forest structure and composition. The results also point out the

  9. Relative risk studies and their relevance to decision-making: the analytical approach in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, A.V.

    1982-01-01

    The risks associated with the generation of electricity using nuclear fuels, oil and coal are compared at the three stages of the electricity production process. Fuel extraction, public health effects and waste disposal risks are taken into consideration. Probabilities for a major catastrophic event are also calculated. The uncertainties of risk assessment at each stage are noted. The reasons for public prejudice against the evidence for the safety of nuclear power are discussed. (U.K.)

  10. Impacts of population structure and analytical models in genome-wide association studies of complex traits in forest trees: a case study in Eucalyptus globulus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo P Cappa

    Full Text Available The promise of association genetics to identify genes or genomic regions controlling complex traits has generated a flurry of interest. Such phenotype-genotype associations could be useful to accelerate tree breeding cycles, increase precision and selection intensity for late expressing, low heritability traits. However, the prospects of association genetics in highly heterozygous undomesticated forest trees can be severely impacted by the presence of cryptic population and pedigree structure. To investigate how to better account for this, we compared the GLM and five combinations of the Unified Mixed Model ( UMM on data of a low-density genome-wide association study for growth and wood property traits carried out in a Eucalyptus globulus population (n = 303 with 7,680 Diversity Array Technology (DArT markers. Model comparisons were based on the degree of deviation from the uniform distribution and estimates of the mean square differences between the observed and expected p-values of all significant marker-trait associations detected. Our analysis revealed the presence of population and family structure. There was not a single best model for all traits. Striking differences in detection power and accuracy were observed among the different models especially when population structure was not accounted for. The UMM method was the best and produced superior results when compared to GLM for all traits. Following stringent correction for false discoveries, 18 marker-trait associations were detected, 16 for tree diameter growth and two for lignin monomer composition (S:G ratio, a key wood property trait. The two DArT markers associated with S:G ratio on chromosome 10, physically map within 1 Mbp of the ferulate 5-hydroxylase (F5H gene, providing a putative independent validation of this marker-trait association. This study details the merit of collectively integrate population structure and relatedness in association analyses in undomesticated, highly

  11. Impacts of Population Structure and Analytical Models in Genome-Wide Association Studies of Complex Traits in Forest Trees: A Case Study in Eucalyptus globulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Martín N.; Acuña, Cintia; Borralho, Nuno M. G.; Grattapaglia, Dario; Marcucci Poltri, Susana N.

    2013-01-01

    The promise of association genetics to identify genes or genomic regions controlling complex traits has generated a flurry of interest. Such phenotype-genotype associations could be useful to accelerate tree breeding cycles, increase precision and selection intensity for late expressing, low heritability traits. However, the prospects of association genetics in highly heterozygous undomesticated forest trees can be severely impacted by the presence of cryptic population and pedigree structure. To investigate how to better account for this, we compared the GLM and five combinations of the Unified Mixed Model (UMM) on data of a low-density genome-wide association study for growth and wood property traits carried out in a Eucalyptus globulus population (n = 303) with 7,680 Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers. Model comparisons were based on the degree of deviation from the uniform distribution and estimates of the mean square differences between the observed and expected p-values of all significant marker-trait associations detected. Our analysis revealed the presence of population and family structure. There was not a single best model for all traits. Striking differences in detection power and accuracy were observed among the different models especially when population structure was not accounted for. The UMM method was the best and produced superior results when compared to GLM for all traits. Following stringent correction for false discoveries, 18 marker-trait associations were detected, 16 for tree diameter growth and two for lignin monomer composition (S∶G ratio), a key wood property trait. The two DArT markers associated with S∶G ratio on chromosome 10, physically map within 1 Mbp of the ferulate 5-hydroxylase (F5H) gene, providing a putative independent validation of this marker-trait association. This study details the merit of collectively integrate population structure and relatedness in association analyses in undomesticated, highly

  12. Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Kemal Özfirat

    2017-09-27

    Sep 27, 2017 ... Different types of accidents may occur in natural stone facilities during movement, dimensioning, cutting ... are numerous risk analysis methods such as preliminary ..... machine type and maintenance (MM) event, block control.

  13. Decision Tree Identified Risk Groups with High Suicidal Ideation in South Korea: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Ji Young; Kim, Jong Hyen; Hyoung, Hee Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify risk groups with high suicidal ideation among South Korean adults. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted using secondary data from the 2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). A total of 5,963 adults aged 19 years and older who participated in the 2011 KNHANES served as participants. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its related factors, including physical, psychological, health behavioral, and sociodemographic characteristics, were examined. Descriptive statistics and a decision tree were used for data analysis. Nine groups with high suicidal ideation were identified. The coexistence of depression and high levels of stress increased the prevalence of suicidal ideation. The highest risk group was widowed or divorced adults with depression and high levels of stress, and 82.5% of these participants had suicidal ideation (the prevalence rate of this group was 5.7 times higher than the mean suicidal ideation prevalence rate in this study). Public health nurses and community mental health professionals should recognize risk groups with high suicidal ideation, and target these groups when implementing preventive interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  15. Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun Chen; Hui Yang

    2014-01-01

    The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

  16. Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W.; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J.; Coppo, R.; Haffner, D.; Harambat, J.; Stefanidis, C.; Shitza, D.; Kramar, R.; Oberbauer, R.; Baiko, S.; Sukalo, A.; van Hoeck, K.; Collart, F.; des Grottes, J. M.; Pokrajac, D.; Resić, H.; Prnjavorac, B.; Roussinov, D.; Batinić, D.; Lemac, M.; Slavicek, J.; Seeman, T.; Vondrak, K.; Heaf, J. G.; Toots, U.; Finne, P.; Grönhagen-Riska, C.; Couchoud, C.; Lasalle, M.; Sahpazova, E.; Gersdorf, G.; Barth, C.; Scholz, C.; Tönshoff, B.; Ioannidis, G.; Kapogiannis, A.; Papachristou, F.; Reusz, G.; Túri, S.; Szabó, L.; Szabó, T.

    2016-01-01

    Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret

  17. Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel

    2017-10-01

    Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

  18. Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

    2009-07-01

    The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

  19. Analytical study of azadirachtin and 3-tigloylazadirachtol residues in foliage and phloem of hardwood tree species by liquid chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimalt, Susana; Thompson, Dean G; Coppens, Melanie; Chartrand, Derek T; Shorney, Thomas; Meating, Joe; Scarr, Taylor

    2011-08-10

    A rapid and sensitive LC-ESI-MS method has been developed and validated for the quantitation of azadirachtin and 3-tigloylazadirachtol in deciduous tree matrices. The method involves automated extraction and simultaneous cleanup using an accelerated solvent technique with the matrix dispersed in solid phase over a layer of primary-secondary amine silica. The limits of quantification were 0.02 mg/kg for all matrices with the exception of Norway maple foliage (0.05 mg/kg). Validation at three levels (0.02, 0.1, and 1 mg/kg), demonstrated satisfactory recoveries (71-103%) with relative standard deviation <20%. Two in-source fragment ions were used for confirmation at levels above 0.1 mg/kg. Over a period of several months, quality control analyses showed the technique to be robust and effective in tracking the fate of these natural botanical insecticides following systemic injection into various tree species for control of invasive insect pest species such as the emerald ash borer and Asian longhorned beetle.

  20. Identifying HIV most-at-risk groups in Malawi for targeted interventions. A classification tree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emina, Jacques B O; Madise, Nyovani; Kuepie, Mathias; Zulu, Eliya M; Ye, Yazoume

    2013-05-28

    To identify HIV-socioeconomic predictors as well as the most-at-risk groups of women in Malawi. A cross-sectional survey. Malawi The study used a sample of 6395 women aged 15-49 years from the 2010 Malawi Health and Demographic Surveys. Individual HIV status: positive or not. Findings from the Pearson χ(2) and χ(2) Automatic Interaction Detector analyses revealed that marital status is the most significant predictor of HIV. Women who are no longer in union and living in the highest wealth quintiles households constitute the most-at-risk group, whereas the less-at-risk group includes young women (15-24) never married or in union and living in rural areas. In the light of these findings, this study recommends: (1) that the design and implementation of targeted interventions should consider the magnitude of HIV prevalence and demographic size of most-at-risk groups. Preventive interventions should prioritise couples and never married people aged 25-49 years and living in rural areas because this group accounts for 49% of the study population and 40% of women living with HIV in Malawi; (2) with reference to treatment and care, higher priority must be given to promoting HIV test, monitoring and evaluation of equity in access to treatment among women in union disruption and never married or women in union aged 30-49 years and living in urban areas; (3) community health workers, households-based campaign, reproductive-health services and reproductive-health courses at school could be used as canons to achieve universal prevention strategy, testing, counselling and treatment.

  1. An HVAC [heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning] fault-tree analysis for WIPP [Waste Isolation Pilot Plant] integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.N.; Iacovino, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk of potential radioactive releases from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a probabilistic risk assessment of waste-handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault-tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which constitute the final barrier between waste-handling operations and the environment. The WIPP site is designed to receive and store two types of waste: contact-handled transuranic (CH TRU) wastes to be shipped in 208-ell drums and remote-handled (RH) TRU wastes to be shipped in shielded casks. The identification of accident sequences for CH waste operations revealed no identified accidents that could release significant radioactive particulates to the environment without a failure in the HVAC systems. When the HVAC fault-tree results were combined with other critical system fault trees and the analysis of waste-handling accident sequences, the approximation of the overall WIPP plant risk due to airborne releases was determined to be 2.6 x 10 -7 fatalities per year for the population within a 50-mile radius of the WIPP site. This risk was demonstrated to be well below the risk of fatality from other voluntary and involuntary activities for the population within the vicinity of the WIPP

  2. Analytic advanced development in the German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The study carried out by the Ecological Institute (Oeko-Institut) deals with the difficulties encountered with the decision-making models and statistical models and methods of the German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Plants for the determination of care meltdown frequency and for the estimation of the behaviour of components in the event of a failure. Related deficiencies of the German Risk Study and the absence of completeness and lading representiveness of the course and causes of incidents considered are pointed out. The accident consequences model and the climatological-meteorological data base are considered non-representative. (RF) [de

  3. Analytical Methods for the Analysis of Managerial Risk in the Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana BRADUTAN

    2013-01-01

    Within forecasts based on single estimations the risk due to uncertainty is not considered. Yet they continue to be widely used in practice in different areas of marketing such as the return on investments, discounted flow of benefits of a project, the average annual benefit of an investment a.s.o.

  4. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2017-06-14

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

  5. GIS-based flood risk model evaluated by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukcharoen, Tharapong; Weng, Jingnong; Teetat, Charoenkalunyuta

    2016-10-01

    Over the last 2-3 decades, the economy of many countries around the world has been developed rapidly but it was unbalanced development because of expecting on economic growth only. Meanwhile it lacked of effective planning in the use of natural resources. This can significantly induce climate change which is major cause of natural disaster. Hereby, Thailand has also suffered from natural disaster for ages. Especially, the flood which is most hazardous disaster in Thailand can annually result in the great loss of life and property, environment and economy. Since the flood management of country is inadequate efficiency. It is unable to support the flood analysis comprehensively. This paper applied Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Making to create flood risk model at regional scale. Angthong province in Thailand was used as the study area. In practical process, Fuzzy logic technique has been used to improve specialist's assessment by implementing with Fuzzy membership because human decision is flawed under uncertainty then AHP technique was processed orderly. The hierarchy structure in this paper was categorized the spatial flood factors into two levels as following: 6 criteria (Meteorology, Geology, Topography, Hydrology, Human and Flood history) and 8 factors (Average Rainfall, Distance from Stream, Soil drainage capability, Slope, Elevation, Land use, Distance from road and Flooded area in the past). The validity of the pair-wise comparison in AHP was shown as C.R. value which indicated that the specialist judgment was reasonably consistent. FAHP computation result has shown that the first priority of criteria was Meteorology. In addition, the Rainfall was the most influencing factor for flooding. Finally, the output was displayed in thematic map of Angthong province with flood risk level processed by GIS tools. The map was classified into: High Risk, Moderate Risk and Low Risk (13.20%, 75.58%, and 11.22% of total area).

  6. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for examining healthcare professionals' assessments of risk factors. The relative importance of risk factors for falls in community-dwelling older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecchia, L; Bath, P A; Pendleton, N; Bracale, M

    2011-01-01

    A gap exists between evidence-based medicine and clinical-practice. Every day, healthcare professionals (HCPs) combine empirical evidence and subjective experience in order to maximize the effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, it is important to understand how HCPs interpret the research evidence and apply it in everyday practice. We focused on the prevention of falls, a common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life, for which there is a wide range of known risk factors. To use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to investigate the opinions of HCPs in prioritizing risk factors for preventing falls. We used the AHP to develop a hierarchy of risk factors for falls based on the knowledge and experience of experts. We submitted electronic questionnaires via the web, in order to reach a wider number of respondents. With a web service, we pooled the results and weighted the coherence and the experience of respondents. Overall, 232 respondents participated in the study: 32 in the technical pilot study, nine in the scientific pilot study and 191 respondents in the main study. We identified a hierarchy of 35 risk factors, organized in two categories and six sub-categories. The hierarchy of risk factors provides further insights into clinicians' perceptions of risk factors for falls. This hierarchy helps understand the relative importance that clinicians place on risk factors for falls in older people and why evidence-based guidelines are not always followed. This information may be helpful in improving intervention programs and in understanding how clinicians prioritize multiple risk factors in individual patients. The AHP method allows the opinions of HCPs to be investigated, giving appropriate weight to their coherence, background and experience.

  7. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  8. Hyperactive Children are at Risk of Dental Caries -An Analytical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Jeevika

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD is well recognized in western countries, but there were no much reports of ADHD from India. Aim: To determine the relationship of ADHD with dental caries. Materials & Method : A cross-sectional analytical study was carried out among 120 children aged around 8-15 years who were randomly selected from normal and special schools located in Chennai city. The children were categorized as ADHD according to the criteria of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV.The questionnaire was given to parents and teachers. It included details of DSM- IV criteria, age, sex, demographic details, past dental history, hours diet chart and any medication taken previously. The oral hygiene status was assessed using Oral Hygiene index simplified (OHI-S and the caries experience was recorded using DMFT index. Categorical data were compared by the Chi-square test. The odds ratio (OR was calculated with logistic regression. A multivariate analysis was carried out to adjust for gender, dental caries status of primary and permanent teeth. Results : Males are more in ADHD group when compared to females. Oral Hygiene Status of ADHD group was significantly better than control group. ADHD children were 3.1 times more odds of getting dental caries than children in the control group.

  9. Critical infrastructures at risk: A need for a new conceptual approach and extended analytical tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeger, Wolfgang

    2008-01-01

    Recent decades have witnessed on the one hand a much greater and tighter integration of goods or services supply systems and growing interconnectedness as well as changing organizational and operational factors, and on the other hand an increased social vulnerability in the face of accidental or intentional disruption. The work of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) in the field of critical infrastructures has focused on both the risks associated with five individual infrastructures and the issues associated with the increasing interdependence between them. This paper presents a selection of system weaknesses and a number of policy options that have been identified and highlights issues for further investigation and dialogue with stakeholders. Furthermore, the need to extend current modeling and simulation techniques in order to cope with the increasing system complexity is elaborated. An object-oriented, hybrid modeling approach promising to overcome some of the shortcomings of traditional methods is presented

  10. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Relative Risk of Various Head and Neck Cancers among Different Blood Groups: An Analytical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Khushboo; Kote, Sunder; Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Singh, Shilpi; Kundu, Hansa; Jain, Swati

    2014-04-01

    Cancer is a unique disease characterized by abnormal growth of cells which have the ability to invade the adjacent tissues and sometimes even distant organs. The limited and contrasting evidence regarding the association of ABO blood groups with the different types of head and neck cancers in the Indian population warrants the need for the present study. To assess the relative risk of various Head & Neck cancers among different blood groups. Three hundred sixty two diagnosed cases of different type of head and neck cancers and 400 controls were selected from four hospitals of New Delhi, India. The information regarding the type of head and neck cancer was obtained from the case sheets of the patients regarding their socio demographic profile, dietary history using a structured performa. The information regarding type of cancer (cases only), ABO blood group was collected. Statistical Tests: The data was analysed using the SPSS 19 version. Chi square test and odd ratios were calculated. The level of significance was fixed at 5%. The O blood group was found to be most prevalent followed by B, A and AB among the cases as well as the controls. Oral cancer patients showed maximum number in blood group O followed by B, A and AB. Significant pattern of distribution was seen among the patients of esophageal cancer, laryngeal cancer and salivary gland cancer as well (p= 0.003, p=0.000 p=0.112 respectively. The present study reveals that there is an inherited element in the susceptibility or protection against different types of head and neck cancers. Blood group A was found to be a potential risk factor for the development of oral cancers, esophageal cancers and salivary gland cancers while blood group B was found to be a potential risk factor for laryngeal cancers.

  12. Relative Risk of Various Head and Neck Cancers among Different Blood Groups: An Analytical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kote, Sunder; Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Singh, Shilpi; Kundu, Hansa; Jain, Swati

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cancer is a unique disease characterized by abnormal growth of cells which have the ability to invade the adjacent tissues and sometimes even distant organs. The limited and contrasting evidence regarding the association of ABO blood groups with the different types of head and neck cancers in the Indian population warrants the need for the present study. Aim and Objective: To assess the relative risk of various Head & Neck cancers among different blood groups. Materials and Method: Three hundred sixty two diagnosed cases of different type of head and neck cancers and 400 controls were selected from four hospitals of New Delhi, India. The information regarding the type of head and neck cancer was obtained from the case sheets of the patients regarding their socio demographic profile, dietary history using a structured performa. The information regarding type of cancer (cases only), ABO blood group was collected. Statistical Tests: The data was analysed using the SPSS 19 version. Chi square test and odd ratios were calculated. The level of significance was fixed at 5%. Results: The O blood group was found to be most prevalent followed by B, A and AB among the cases as well as the controls. Oral cancer patients showed maximum number in blood group O followed by B, A and AB. Significant pattern of distribution was seen among the patients of esophageal cancer, laryngeal cancer and salivary gland cancer as well (p= 0.003, p=0.000 p=0.112 respectively. Conclusion: The present study reveals that there is an inherited element in the susceptibility or protection against different types of head and neck cancers. Blood group A was found to be a potential risk factor for the development of oral cancers, esophageal cancers and salivary gland cancers while blood group B was found to be a potential risk factor for laryngeal cancers. PMID:24959511

  13. Meta-analytic evaluation of the association between head injury and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Yukari; Watanabe, Takamitsu

    2017-10-01

    Head injury is considered as a potential risk factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, several recent studies have suggested that head injury is not a cause, but a consequence of latent ALS. We aimed to evaluate such a possibility of reverse causation with meta-analyses considering time lags between the incidence of head injuries and the occurrence of ALS. We searched Medline and Web of Science for case-control, cross-sectional, or cohort studies that quantitatively investigated the head-injury-related risk of ALS and were published until 1 December 2016. After selecting appropriate publications based on PRISMA statement, we performed random-effects meta-analyses to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sixteen of 825 studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The association between head injuries and ALS was statistically significant when the meta-analysis included all the 16 studies (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.21-1.74). However, in the meta-analyses considering the time lags between the experience of head injuries and diagnosis of ALS, the association was weaker (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.46, time lag ≥ 1 year) or not significant (e.g. OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.84-1.59, time lag ≥ 3 years). Although it did not deny associations between head injuries and ALS, the current study suggests a possibility that such a head-injury-oriented risk of ALS has been somewhat overestimated. For more accurate evaluation, it would be necessary to conduct more epidemiological studies that consider the time lags between the occurrence of head injuries and the diagnosis of ALS.

  14. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Marlina, Dwi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Wiratomo, Yogi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Indraprasta PGRI University, Nangka Street No. 58C Tanjung Barat, South Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

  15. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia; Marlina, Dwi; Wiratomo, Yogi

    2014-01-01

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area

  16. Age as a Risk Factor for Burnout Syndrome in Nursing Professionals: A Meta-Analytic Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Urquiza, José L; Vargas, Cristina; De la Fuente, Emilia I; Fernández-Castillo, Rafael; Cañadas-De la Fuente, Guillermo A

    2017-04-01

    Although past research has highlighted the possibility of a direct relationship between the age of nursing professionals and burnout syndrome, results have been far from conclusive. The aim of this study was to conduct a wider analysis of the influence of age on the three dimensions of burnout syndrome (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment) in nurses. We performed a meta-analysis of 51 publications extracted from health sciences and psychology databases that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were 47 reports of information on emotional exhaustion in 50 samples, 39 reports on depersonalization for 42 samples, and 31 reports on personal accomplishment in 34 samples. The mean effect sizes indicated that younger age was a significant factor in the emotional exhaustion and depersonalization of nurses, although it was somewhat less influential in the dimension of personal accomplishment. Because of heterogeneity in the effect sizes, moderating variables that might explain the association between age and burnout were also analyzed. Gender, marital status, and study characteristics moderated the relationship between age and burnout and may be crucial for the identification of high-risk groups. More research is needed on other variables for which there were only a small number of studies. Identification of burnout risk factors will facilitate establishment of burnout prevention programs for nurses. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Fragmentation of random trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalay, Z; Ben-Naim, E

    2015-01-01

    We study fragmentation of a random recursive tree into a forest by repeated removal of nodes. The initial tree consists of N nodes and it is generated by sequential addition of nodes with each new node attaching to a randomly-selected existing node. As nodes are removed from the tree, one at a time, the tree dissolves into an ensemble of separate trees, namely, a forest. We study statistical properties of trees and nodes in this heterogeneous forest, and find that the fraction of remaining nodes m characterizes the system in the limit N→∞. We obtain analytically the size density ϕ s of trees of size s. The size density has power-law tail ϕ s ∼s −α with exponent α=1+(1/m). Therefore, the tail becomes steeper as further nodes are removed, and the fragmentation process is unusual in that exponent α increases continuously with time. We also extend our analysis to the case where nodes are added as well as removed, and obtain the asymptotic size density for growing trees. (paper)

  18. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

    2004-07-01

    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.

  19. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

    2004-07-01

    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard

  20. Why Weight? An Analytic Review of Obesity Management, Diabetes Prevention, and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igel, L I; Saunders, K H; Fins, J J

    2018-05-21

    In this review, we examine one of the ironies of American health care-that we pay more for disease management than disease prevention. Instead of preventing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) by treating its precursor, obesity, we fail to provide sufficient insurance coverage for weight management only to fund the more costly burden of overt T2DM. There is a vital need for expanded insurance coverage to help foster a weight-centric approach to T2DM management. This includes broader coverage of anti-diabetic medications with evidence of cardiovascular risk reduction and mortality benefit, anti-obesity pharmacotherapy, bariatric surgery, weight loss devices, endoscopic bariatric therapies, and lifestyle interventions for the treatment of obesity. The fundamental question to ask is why weight? Why wait to go after obesity until its end-stage sequelae cause intractable conditions? Instead of managing the complications of T2DM, consider preventing them by tackling obesity.

  1. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  2. ANALYTICAL ISSUES OF RISK COMMUNICATION. RATIONALE FOR APPROACHES TO DEVELOPING RESEARCH DATABASES ON RADIATION SAFETY AND SOCIAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Rekhtina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important stages of risk communication is the analysis of publications in traditional media and the Internet, which largely shape people’s attitudes to various issues. At the same time, the availability of large amounts of information relating to any subject area complicates the possibility of manual analysis and adequate description of all of the information. On the other hand, the availability of information causes the urgency of developing methods to improve the effectiveness of its analysis. One way to automate the analysis of large amounts of information is the development of databases or automated information systems containing information materials on the subject matter under study and suggesting the possibility of automated processing. The objective of this work is to analyze the experience of developing such systems and databases by the research teams of the St. Petersburg Institute of Radiation Hygiene and St. Petersburg State University and to identify key features of the use of bases Data for social research. The results of the analysis showed that the methodological approaches used were very close. The analysis is performed according to the method of autoethnographical research. The strategy application of the comparative analysis allows identifying common features characterizing the situation of development and implementation of databases to practice of the risk communication studies. The article discusses the features associated with them, the limitations of the primary data, such as text, discursive nature of most of the materials, information noise, high dependence on context, variability, different structure, format and appearance of materials. The important parameters for solving problems of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are given in the article. An important condition of creating effective, from the point of view of socio-communication studies information system is to implement the processing

  3. Pre-Analytical Components of Risk in Four Branches of Clinical Laboratory in Romania--Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Remona E; Dobreanu, Minodora

    2016-01-01

    Development of quality measurement principles is a strategic point for each clinical laboratory. Preexamination process is the most critical and the most difficult to be managed. The aim of this study is to identify, quantify, and monitor the nonconformities of the pre-analytical process using quality indicators that can affect the patient's health safety in four different locations of a Romanian private clinical laboratory. The study group consisted of all the analysis requests received by the departments of biochemistry, hematology, and coagulation from January through March 2015. In order to collect the pre-analytical nonconformities, we created a "Risk Budget", using the entries from the "Evidence notebook--non-conform samples" from the above mentioned departments. The laboratory established the quality indicators by means of the risk management technique in order to identify and control the sources of errors, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analyses), which had been implemented and monitored for its purposes and special needs. For the assessment of the control level over the processes, the results were transformed on the Six Sigma scale, using the Westgard calculation method and being obtained in this way the frequency with which an error may occur. (https://www.westgard. com/six-sigma-calculators.htm). The obtained results prove that the quantification and monitoring of the indicators can be a control instrument for the pre-analytic activities. The calculation of the Six Sigma value adds extra information to the study because it allows the detection of the processes which need improvement (Sigma value higher than 4 represents a well controlled process). The highest rates were observed for the hemolyzed and the lipemic samples, in the department of biochemistry and hemolyzed, insufficient sample volume, or clotted samples for the department of hematology and coagulation. Significant statistical differences between laboratories participating in the study have

  4. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  5. Ecotoxicological and analytical assessment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and application to ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saterbak, A.; Toy, R.J.; Wong, D.C.L.; McMain, B.J.; Williams, M.P.; Dorn, P.B.; Brzuzy, L.P.; Chai, E.Y.; Salanitro, J.P.

    1999-07-01

    Ecotoxicological assessments of contaminated soil aim to understand the effect of introduced chemicals on the soil flora and fauna. Ecotoxicity test methods were developed and conducted on hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and on adjacent uncontaminated control soils from eight field locations. Tests included 7-d, 14-d, and chronic survival tests and reproduction assays for the earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and seed germination, root length, and plant growth assays for corn, lettuce, mustard, and wheat. Species-specific responses were observed with no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) ranging from <1 to 100% contaminated soil. The 14-d earthworm survival NOEC was equal to or greater than the reproduction NOEC values for numbers of cocoons and juveniles, which were similar to one another. Cocoon and juvenile production varied among the control soils. Germination and root length NOECs for mustard and lettuce were less than NOECs for corn and wheat. Root length NOECs were similar to or less than seed germination NOECs. Statistically significant correlations for earthworm survival and seed germination as a function of hydrocarbon measurements were found. The 14-d earthworm survival and the seed germination tests are recommended for use in the context of a risk-based framework for the ecological assessment of contaminated sites.

  6. Analytical procedures. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.

    1985-01-01

    In analytical procedures (Boole procedures) there is certain to be a close relationship between the safety assessment and reliability assessment of technical facilities. The paper gives an overview of the organization of models, fault trees, the probabilistic evaluation of systems, evaluation with minimum steps or minimum paths regarding statistically dependent components and of systems liable to suffer different kinds of outages. (orig.) [de

  7. Identification of "At Risk" Students Using Learning Analytics: The Ethical Dilemmas of Intervention Strategies in a Higher Education Institution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Celeste; Beer, Colin; Rossi, Dolene; Moore, Teresa; Fleming, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Learning analytics is an emerging field in which sophisticated analytic tools are used to inform and improve learning and teaching. Researchers within a regional university in Australia identified an association between interaction and student success in online courses and subsequently developed a learning analytics system aimed at informing…

  8. Mentoring Programs to Affect Delinquency and Associated Outcomes of Youth At-Risk: A Comprehensive Meta-Analytic Reviewi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolan, Patrick H.; Henry, David B.; Schoeny, Michael S.; Lovegrove, Peter; Nichols, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To conduct a meta-analytic review of selective and indicated mentoring interventions for effects for youth at risk on delinquency and key associated outcomes (aggression, drug use, academic functioning). We also undertook the first systematic evaluation of intervention implementation features and organization and tested for effects of theorized key processes of mentor program effects. Methods Campbell Collaboration review inclusion criteria and procedures were used to search and evaluate the literature. Criteria included a sample defined as at-risk for delinquency due to individual behavior such as aggression or conduct problems or environmental characteristics such as residence in high-crime community. Studies were required to be random assignment or strong quasi-experimental design. Of 163 identified studies published 1970 - 2011, 46 met criteria for inclusion. Results Mean effects sizes were significant and positive for each outcome category (ranging form d =.11 for Academic Achievement to d = .29 for Aggression). Heterogeneity in effect sizes was noted for all four outcomes. Stronger effects resulted when mentor motivation was professional development but not by other implementation features. Significant improvements in effects were found when advocacy and emotional support mentoring processes were emphasized. Conclusions This popular approach has significant impact on delinquency and associated outcomes for youth at-risk for delinquency. While evidencing some features may relate to effects, the body of literature is remarkably lacking in details about specific program features and procedures. This persistent state of limited reporting seriously impedes understanding about how mentoring is beneficial and ability to maximize its utility. PMID:25386111

  9. An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-09-01

    Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

  10. Depression and Anxiety Prevention Based on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for At-Risk Adolescents: A Meta-Analytic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne P. A. Rasing

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Depression and anxiety disorders are among the most common mental disorders during adolescence. During this life phase, the incidence of these clinical disorders rises dramatically, and even more adolescents suffer from symptoms of depression or anxiety that are just below the clinical threshold. Both clinical and subclinical levels of depression or anxiety symptoms are related to decreased functioning in various areas, such as social and academic functioning. Prevention of depression and anxiety in adolescents is therefore imperative. We conducted a meta-analytic review of the effects of school-based and community-based prevention programs that are based on cognitive behavioral therapy with the primary goal preventing depression, anxiety, or both in high risk adolescents. Articles were obtained by searching databases and hand searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. The selection process yielded 32 articles in the meta-analyses. One article reported on two studies and three articles reported on both depression and anxiety. This resulted in a total of 36 studies, 23 on depression and 13 on anxiety. For depression prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, meta-analysis showed a small effect of prevention programs directly after the intervention, but no effect at 3–6 months and at 12 months follow-up. For anxiety prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, no short-term effect was found, nor at 12 months follow-up. Three to six months after the preventive intervention, symptoms of anxiety were significantly decreased. Although effects on depression and anxiety symptoms were small and temporary, current findings cautiously suggest that depression and anxiety prevention programs based on CBT might have small effects on mental health of adolescents. However, it also indicates that there is still much to be gained for prevention programs. Current findings and possibilities for future research are discussed in order to further

  11. A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hetang Wang

    Full Text Available Coal dust explosions (CDE are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

  12. A Cross-cultural Analytical Framework for Territorial Development Policies : The Application to Flood Risk Management Policies in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rongwinriyaphanich, S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the application of a proposed analytical framework that takes cultural dimensions as main parameters to explain territorial development processes. It is illustrated through the analysis of flood risk management in two case study areas in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. It aims

  13. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Flowering Trees. Boswellia serrata Roxb. ex Colebr. (Indian Frankincense tree) of Burseraceae is a large-sized deciduous tree that is native to India. Bark is thin, greenish-ash-coloured that exfoliates into smooth papery flakes. Stem exudes pinkish resin ... Fruit is a three-valved capsule. A green gum-resin exudes from the ...

  14. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    Flowering Trees. Ailanthus excelsa Roxb. (INDIAN TREE OF. HEAVEN) of Simaroubaceae is a lofty tree with large pinnately compound alternate leaves, which are ... inflorescences, unisexual and greenish-yellow. Fruits are winged, wings many-nerved. Wood is used in making match sticks. 1. Male flower; 2. Female flower.

  15. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Flowering Trees. Gyrocarpus americanus Jacq. (Helicopter Tree) of Hernandiaceae is a moderate size deciduous tree that grows to about 12 m in height with a smooth, shining, greenish-white bark. The leaves are ovate, rarely irregularly ... flowers which are unpleasant smelling. Fruit is a woody nut with two long thin wings.

  16. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 8 Issue 8 August 2003 pp 112-112 Flowering Trees. Zizyphus jujuba Lam. of Rhamnaceae · More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 8 Issue 9 September 2003 pp 97-97 Flowering Trees. Moringa oleifera · More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 8 Issue 10 October 2003 pp 100-100 Flowering Trees.

  17. Assessing the risk caused by ground level ozone to European forest trees: A case study in pine, beech and oak across different climate regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emberson, Lisa D.; Bueker, Patrick; Ashmore, Mike R.

    2007-01-01

    Two different indices have been proposed for estimation of the risk caused to forest trees across Europe by ground-level ozone, (i) the concentration based AOT40 index (Accumulated Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) and (ii) the recently developed flux based AFstY index (Accumulated stomatal Flux above a flux threshold Y). This paper compares the AOT40 and AFstY indices for three forest trees species at different locations in Europe. The AFstY index is estimated using the DO 3 SE (Deposition of Ozone and Stomatal Exchange) model parameterized for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and holm oak (Quercus ilex). The results show a large difference in the perceived O 3 risk when using AOT40 and AFstY indices both between species and regions. The AOT40 index shows a strong north-south gradient across Europe, whereas there is little difference between regions in the modelled values of AFstY. There are significant differences in modelled AFstY between species, which are predominantly determined by differences in the timing and length of the growing season, the periods during which soil moisture deficit limits stomatal conductance, and adaptation to soil moisture stress. This emphasizes the importance of defining species-specific flux response variables to obtain a more accurate quantification of O 3 risk. - A new flux-based model provides a revised assessment of risks of ozone impacts to European forests

  18. Tree compression with top trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li; Landau, Gad M.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a new compression scheme for labeled trees based on top trees [3]. Our compression scheme is the first to simultaneously take advantage of internal repeats in the tree (as opposed to the classical DAG compression that only exploits rooted subtree repeats) while also supporting fast...

  19. Tree compression with top trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li; Landau, Gad M.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a new compression scheme for labeled trees based on top trees. Our compression scheme is the first to simultaneously take advantage of internal repeats in the tree (as opposed to the classical DAG compression that only exploits rooted subtree repeats) while also supporting fast...

  20. Identification of Sexually Abused Female Adolescents at Risk for Suicidal Ideations: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabant, Marie-Eve; Hebert, Martine; Chagnon, Francois

    2013-01-01

    This study explored the clinical profiles of 77 female teenager survivors of sexual abuse and examined the association of abuse-related and personal variables with suicidal ideations. Analyses revealed that 64% of participants experienced suicidal ideations. Findings from classification and regression tree analysis indicated that depression,…

  1. Is tree loss associated with cardiovascular-disease risk in the Women's Health Initiative? A natural experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Yvonne L. Michael; Demetrios Gatziolis; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Eric A. Whitsel

    2015-01-01

    Data from the Women's Health Initiative were used to quantify the relationship between the loss of trees to an invasive forest pest—the emerald ash borer—and cardiovascular disease. We estimated semi- parametric Cox proportional hazards model of time to cardiovascular disease, adjusting for confounders. We defined the incidence of cardiovascular disease as acute...

  2. Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Mikyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)-data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89 * ). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, "injuries to the hip and thigh" was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data.

  3. Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia T Martins-Bedê

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG. We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.

  4. Generic event trees and the treatment of dependencies and non-proceduralized actions in a low power and shutdown Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forester, J.; Yakle, J.; Whitehead, D.; Darby, J.

    1993-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories was tasked by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of a boiling water reactor (BWR) during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) conditions. The plant chosen for the study was Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (GGNS), a BWR 6. In performing the analysis, it was found that in comparison with full-power PRAs, the low decay heat levels present during LP ampersand S conditions result in a relatively large number of ways by which cooling can be provided to the core. In addition, because of the less stringent requirements imposed on system configurations possible is large and the availability of plant systems is more difficult to specify. These aspects of the LP ampersand S environment led to the development and use of ''generic'' event trees in performing the analysis. The use of ''generic'' event trees, in turn, had a significant impact on the nature of the human reliability analysis (HRA) that was performed. This paper describes the development of the event trees for the LP ampersand S PRA and important aspects of the resulting HRA

  5. A method for risk-informed safety significance categorization using the analytic hierarchy process and bayesian belief networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    A risk-informed safety significance categorization (RISSC) is to categorize structures, systems, or components (SSCs) of a nuclear power plant (NPP) into two or more groups, according to their safety significance using both probabilistic and deterministic insights. In the conventional methods for the RISSC, the SSCs are quantitatively categorized according to their importance measures for the initial categorization. The final decisions (categorizations) of SSCs, however, are qualitatively made by an expert panel through discussions and adjustments of opinions by using the probabilistic insights compiled in the initial categorization process and combining the probabilistic insights with the deterministic insights. Therefore, owing to the qualitative and linear decision-making process, the conventional methods have the demerits as follows: (1) they are very costly in terms of time and labor, (2) it is not easy to reach the final decision, when the opinions of the experts are in conflict and (3) they have an overlapping process due to the linear paradigm (the categorization is performed twice - first, by the engineers who propose the method, and second, by the expert panel). In this work, a method for RISSC using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and bayesian belief networks (BBN) is proposed to overcome the demerits of the conventional methods and to effectively arrive at a final decision (or categorization). By using the AHP and BBN, the expert panel takes part in the early stage of the categorization (that is, the quantification process) and the safety significance based on both probabilistic and deterministic insights is quantified. According to that safety significance, SSCs are quantitatively categorized into three categories such as high safety significant category (Hi), potentially safety significant category (Po), or low safety significant category (Lo). The proposed method was applied to the components such as CC-V073, CV-V530, and SI-V644 in Ulchin Unit

  6. Web Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Web Analytics Program collects, analyzes, and provides reports on traffic, quality assurance, and customer satisfaction metrics for EPA’s website. The program uses a variety of analytics tools, including Google Analytics and CrazyEgg.

  7. Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J

    2016-02-01

    Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret representation. Within the European Society of Pediatric Nephrology/European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ESPN/ERA-EDTA) Registry data we identified paediatric patient groups with specific profiles for 5-year renal graft survival. Two analyses were performed, including (i) parameters known at time of transplantation and (ii) additional clinical measurements obtained early after transplantation. The identified subgroups were added as covariates in two survival models. The prognostic performance of the models was tested and compared with conventional Cox regression analyses. The first analysis included 5275 paediatric renal transplants. The best 5-year graft survival (90.4%) was found among patients who received a renal graft as a pre-emptive transplantation or after short-term dialysis (2.2 years). The Cox model including both pre-transplant factors and tree subgroups had a significantly better predictive performance than conventional Cox regression (P 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and dialysis 20 months). Also in this case combining tree findings and clinical factors improved the predictive performance as compared with conventional Cox model models (P tree model to be an accurate and attractive tool to predict graft failure for patients with specific characteristics. This may aid the evaluation of individual graft prognosis and thereby the design of measures to improve graft survival in the poor prognosis groups. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  8. The sentinel tree nursery as an early warning system for pathway risk assessment: Fungal pathogens associated with Chinese woody plants commonly shipped to Europe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Vettraino

    Full Text Available Introduction of and invasion by alien plant pathogens represents the main cause of emerging infectious diseases affecting domesticated and wild plant species worldwide. The trade in living plants is the most common pathway of introduction. Many of the alien tree pathogens recently introduced into Europe were not previously included on any quarantine lists. To help determine the potential risk of pest introduction through trading of ornamental plants, a sentinel nursery was established in Beijing, China in 2008. The sentinel nursery planting included four of the most common ornamental woody species shipped to Europe including Ilex cornuta var. fortunae, Zelkova schneideriana, Fraxinus chinensis and Buxus microphylla. Symptoms developing on these species within the sentinel nursery were detected in 2013 and consisted of necrotic spots on leaves, canker and stem necrosis, shoot blight and shoot necrosis. Fungi associated with the trees and their symptoms included Alternaria alternata detected from all hosts; Diaporthe liquidambaris and Diaporthe capsici from bark and leaf necrosis of Zelkova schneideriana; Botryosphaeria dothidea and Nothophoma quercina from stem cankers on Fraxinus chinensis and leaf necrosis on Ilex cornuta; and Pseudonectria foliicola from leaf necrosis on Buxus microphylla. Next generation sequencing analysis from asymptomatic tissues detected eighteen OTU's at species level among which some taxa had not been previously recorded in Europe. These results clearly demonstrate that looking at trees of internationally traded species in the region of origin can reveal the presence of potentially harmful organisms of major forestry, landscape or crop trees. Results of this study also provide an indication as to how some disease agents can be introduced using pathways other than the co-generic hosts. Hence, sentinel nurseries represent one potential mechanism to address the current lack of knowledge about pests in the countries from

  9. Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

  10. Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

    2011-09-10

    In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A perspective on the importance of within-tree variation in mortality risk for a leaf-mining insect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Low

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Within-tree variation in abiotic conditions can create a mosaic of fitness gradients for herbivorous insects. To explore these effects, we quantified the patterns of mortality of the solitary oak leafminer, Cameraria hamadryadella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae, which lives within leaves of white oak, Quercus alba. We found differential patterns of survival and larval feeding rate within the tree and in association with several abiotic factors: light levels, leaf nitrogen content, and canopy height. We suggest that the leaf scale microhabitat conditions are fundamental to plant-herbivore-enemy interactions because of the differential fitness effects on herbivores. Such effects would be missed by studies that average effects by whole plants. Our study population of C. hamadryadella is located within the Orland E. White State Arboretum of Virginia in Boyce, Virginia, USA.

  12. Tree Nut Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Blog Vision Awards Common Allergens Tree Nut Allergy Tree Nut Allergy Learn about tree nut allergy, how ... a Tree Nut Label card . Allergic Reactions to Tree Nuts Tree nuts can cause a severe and ...

  13. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    medium-sized handsome tree with a straight bole that branches at the top. Leaves are once pinnate, with two to three pairs of leaflets. Young parts of the tree are velvety. Inflorescence is a branched raceme borne at the branch ends. Flowers are large, white, attractive, and fragrant. Corolla is funnel-shaped. Fruit is an ...

  14. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Cassia siamia Lamk. (Siamese tree senna) of Caesalpiniaceae is a small or medium size handsome tree. Leaves are alternate, pinnately compound and glandular, upto 18 cm long with 8–12 pairs of leaflets. Inflorescence is axillary or terminal and branched. Flowering lasts for a long period from March to February. Fruit is ...

  15. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Flowering Trees. Cerbera manghasL. (SEA MANGO) of Apocynaceae is a medium-sized evergreen coastal tree with milky latex. The bark is grey-brown, thick and ... Fruit is large. (5–10 cm long), oval containing two flattened seeds and resembles a mango, hence the name Mangas or. Manghas. Leaves and fruits contain ...

  16. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    user

    Flowering Trees. Gliricidia sepium(Jacq.) Kunta ex Walp. (Quickstick) of Fabaceae is a small deciduous tree with. Pinnately compound leaves. Flower are prroduced in large number in early summer on terminal racemes. They are attractive, pinkish-white and typically like bean flowers. Fruit is a few-seeded flat pod.

  17. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Flowering Trees. Acrocarpus fraxinifolius Wight & Arn. (PINK CEDAR, AUSTRALIAN ASH) of. Caesalpiniaceae is a lofty unarmed deciduous native tree that attains a height of 30–60m with buttresses. Bark is thin and light grey. Leaves are compound and bright red when young. Flowers in dense, erect, axillary racemes.

  18. Talking Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolman, Marvin

    2005-01-01

    Students love outdoor activities and will love them even more when they build confidence in their tree identification and measurement skills. Through these activities, students will learn to identify the major characteristics of trees and discover how the pace--a nonstandard measuring unit--can be used to estimate not only distances but also the…

  19. Drawing Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halkjær From, Andreas; Schlichtkrull, Anders; Villadsen, Jørgen

    2018-01-01

    We formally prove in Isabelle/HOL two properties of an algorithm for laying out trees visually. The first property states that removing layout annotations recovers the original tree. The second property states that nodes are placed at least a unit of distance apart. We have yet to formalize three...

  20. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Srimath

    Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. ex R. Br. (Sil- ver Oak) of Proteaceae is a daintily lacy ornamental tree while young and growing into a mighty tree (45 m). Young shoots are silvery grey and the leaves are fern- like. Flowers are golden-yellow in one- sided racemes (10 cm). Fruit is a boat- shaped, woody follicle.

  1. Risk assessment using Analytical Hierarchy Process - Development and evaluation of a new computer-based tool; Riskvaerdering med Analytical Hierarchy Process - Utveckling och utprovning av ett nytt datorbaserat verktyg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritchey, Tom (Swedish Defence Research Agency, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    Risk analysis concerning the management of contaminated areas involves comparing and evaluating the relationship between ecological, technical, economic and other factors, in order to determine a reasonable level of remediation. Risk analysis of this kind is a relatively new phenomenon. In order to develop methodology in this area, the Sustainable Remediation program contributes both to comprehensive risk analysis projects and to projects concentrating on specific aspects of remediation risk analysis. In the project described in this report, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) was given a grant by the Sustainable Remediation program to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to develop a computer-aided instrument to support remediation risk analysis. AHP is one of several so-called multi-criteria decision support methods. These methods are applied in order to systematically compare and evaluate different solutions or measures, when there are many different goal criteria involved. Such criteria can be both quantitative and qualitative. The project has resulted in the development of a computer-aided instrument which can be employed to give a better structure, consistency and traceability to risk analyses for the remediation of contaminated areas. Project was carried out in two phases with two different working groups. The first phase involved the development of a generic base-model for remediation risk analysis. This was performed by a 'development group'. The second phase entailed the testing of the generic model in a specific, on-going remediation project. This was performed by a 'test group'. The remediation project in question concerned the decontamination of a closed-down sawmill in Vaeckelsaang, in the Swedish municipality of Tingsryd

  2. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  3. Tree felling 2014

    CERN Multimedia

    2014-01-01

    With a view to creating new landscapes and making its population of trees safer and healthier, this winter CERN will complete the tree-felling campaign started in 2010.   Tree felling will take place between 15 and 22 November on the Swiss part of the Meyrin site. This work is being carried out above all for safety reasons. The trees to be cut down are at risk of falling as they are too old and too tall to withstand the wind. In addition, the roots of poplar trees are very powerful and spread widely, potentially damaging underground networks, pavements and roadways. Compensatory tree planting campaigns will take place in the future, subject to the availability of funding, with the aim of creating coherent landscapes while also respecting the functional constraints of the site. These matters are being considered in close collaboration with the Geneva nature and countryside directorate (Direction générale de la nature et du paysage, DGNP). GS-SE Group

  4. Big data in health care: using analytics to identify and manage high-risk and high-cost patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, David W; Saria, Suchi; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Shah, Anand; Escobar, Gabriel

    2014-07-01

    The US health care system is rapidly adopting electronic health records, which will dramatically increase the quantity of clinical data that are available electronically. Simultaneously, rapid progress has been made in clinical analytics--techniques for analyzing large quantities of data and gleaning new insights from that analysis--which is part of what is known as big data. As a result, there are unprecedented opportunities to use big data to reduce the costs of health care in the United States. We present six use cases--that is, key examples--where some of the clearest opportunities exist to reduce costs through the use of big data: high-cost patients, readmissions, triage, decompensation (when a patient's condition worsens), adverse events, and treatment optimization for diseases affecting multiple organ systems. We discuss the types of insights that are likely to emerge from clinical analytics, the types of data needed to obtain such insights, and the infrastructure--analytics, algorithms, registries, assessment scores, monitoring devices, and so forth--that organizations will need to perform the necessary analyses and to implement changes that will improve care while reducing costs. Our findings have policy implications for regulatory oversight, ways to address privacy concerns, and the support of research on analytics. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  5. Phylogenetic trees

    OpenAIRE

    Baños, Hector; Bushek, Nathaniel; Davidson, Ruth; Gross, Elizabeth; Harris, Pamela E.; Krone, Robert; Long, Colby; Stewart, Allen; Walker, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We introduce the package PhylogeneticTrees for Macaulay2 which allows users to compute phylogenetic invariants for group-based tree models. We provide some background information on phylogenetic algebraic geometry and show how the package PhylogeneticTrees can be used to calculate a generating set for a phylogenetic ideal as well as a lower bound for its dimension. Finally, we show how methods within the package can be used to compute a generating set for the join of any two ideals.

  6. Analysis of Wave Velocity Patterns in Black Cherry Trees and its Effect on Internal Decay Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guanghui Li; Xiping Wang; Jan Wiedenbeck; Robert J. Ross

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examined stress wave velocity patterns in the cross sections of black cherry trees, developed analytical models of stress wave velocity in sound healthy trees, and then tested the effectiveness of the models as a tool for tree decay diagnosis. Acoustic tomography data of the tree cross sections were collected from 12 black cherry trees at a production...

  7. Electron Tree

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane L; Rønde, Heidi S

    2013-01-01

    The photo shows a close-up of a Lichtenberg figure – popularly called an “electron tree” – produced in a cylinder of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Electron trees are created by irradiating a suitable insulating material, in this case PMMA, with an intense high energy electron beam. Upon discharge......, during dielectric breakdown in the material, the electrons generate branching chains of fractures on leaving the PMMA, producing the tree pattern seen. To be able to create electron trees with a clinical linear accelerator, one needs to access the primary electron beam used for photon treatments. We...... appropriated a linac that was being decommissioned in our department and dismantled the head to circumvent the target and ion chambers. This is one of 24 electron trees produced before we had to stop the fun and allow the rest of the accelerator to be disassembled....

  8. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Srimath

    shaped corolla. Fruit is large, ellipsoidal, green with a hard and smooth shell containing numerous flattened seeds, which are embedded in fleshy pulp. Calabash tree is commonly grown in the tropical gardens of the world as a botanical oddity.

  9. 78 FR 42963 - Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Associated With the Consumption of Tree Nuts...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-18

    ... the adequacy and expected efficacy of preventive controls; and guide risk management policies... practices used in the United States, as well as policies related to risk-based preventive controls..., or anywhere else in the supply chain, including: The frequency of detecting the presence of...

  10. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental

  11. Recalibration of blood analytes over 25 years in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study: impact of recalibration on chronic kidney disease prevalence and incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, Christina M; Grams, Morgan E; Couper, David; Ballantyne, Christie M; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Eckfeldt, John H; Selvin, Elizabeth; Coresh, Josef

    2015-07-01

    Equivalence of laboratory tests over time is important for longitudinal studies. Even a small systematic difference (bias) can result in substantial misclassification. We selected 200 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants attending all 5 study visits over 25 years. Eight analytes were remeasured in 2011-2013 from stored blood samples from multiple visits: creatinine, uric acid, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Original values were recalibrated to remeasured values with Deming regression. Differences >10% were considered to reflect substantial bias, and correction equations were applied to affected analytes in the total study population. We examined trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) pre- and postrecalibration. Repeat measures were highly correlated with original values [Pearson r > 0.85 after removing outliers (median 4.5% of paired measurements)], but 2 of 8 analytes (creatinine and uric acid) had differences >10%. Original values of creatinine and uric acid were recalibrated to current values with correction equations. CKD prevalence differed substantially after recalibration of creatinine (visits 1, 2, 4, and 5 prerecalibration: 21.7%, 36.1%, 3.5%, and 29.4%, respectively; postrecalibration: 1.3%, 2.2%, 6.4%, and 29.4%). For HDL cholesterol, the current direct enzymatic method differed substantially from magnesium dextran precipitation used during visits 1-4. Analytes remeasured in samples stored for approximately 25 years were highly correlated with original values, but 2 of the 8 analytes showed substantial bias at multiple visits. Laboratory recalibration improved reproducibility of test results across visits and resulted in substantial differences in CKD prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of consistent recalibration of laboratory assays in a cohort study. © 2015 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  12. Recalibration of blood analytes over 25 years in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study: The impact of recalibration on chronic kidney disease prevalence and incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, Christina M.; Grams, Morgan E.; Couper, David; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Hoogeveen, Ron C.; Eckfeldt, John H.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Coresh, Josef

    2016-01-01

    Background Equivalence of laboratory tests over time is important for longitudinal studies. Even a small systematic difference (bias) can result in substantial misclassification. Methods We selected 200 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants attending all 5 study visits over 25 years. Eight analytes were re-measured in 2011–13 from stored blood samples from multiple visits: creatinine, uric acid, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Original values were recalibrated to re-measured values using Deming regression. Differences >10% were considered to reflect substantial bias, and correction equations were applied to affected analytes in the total study population. We examined trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) pre- and post-recalibration. Results Repeat measures were highly correlated with original values (Pearson’s r>0.85 after removing outliers [median 4.5% of paired measurements]), but 2 of 8 analytes (creatinine and uric acid) had differences >10%. Original values of creatinine and uric acid were recalibrated to current values using correction equations. CKD prevalence differed substantially after recalibration of creatinine (visits 1, 2, 4 and 5 pre-recalibration: 21.7%, 36.1%, 3.5%, 29.4%; post-recalibration: 1.3%, 2.2%, 6.4%, 29.4%). For HDL-cholesterol, the current direct enzymatic method differed substantially from magnesium dextran precipitation used during visits 1–4. Conclusions Analytes re-measured in samples stored for ~25 years were highly correlated with original values, but two of the 8 analytes showed substantial bias at multiple visits. Laboratory recalibration improved reproducibility of test results across visits and resulted in substantial differences in CKD prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of consistent recalibration of laboratory assays in a cohort study. PMID:25952043

  13. Analytic continuation of dual Feynman amplitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleher, P.M.

    1981-01-01

    A notion of dual Feynman amplitude is introduced and a theorem on the existence of analytic continuation of this amplitude from the convergence domain to the whole complex is proved. The case under consideration corresponds to massless power propagators and the analytic continuation is constructed on the propagators powers. Analytic continuation poles and singular set of external impulses are found explicitly. The proof of the theorem on the existence of analytic continuation is based on the introduction of α-representation for dual Feynman amplitudes. In proving, the so-called ''trees formula'' and ''trees-with-cycles formula'' are established that are dual by formulation to the trees and 2-trees formulae for usual Feynman amplitudes. (Auth.)

  14. Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nai Fovino, Igor; Masera, Marcelo; De Cian, Alessio

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

  15. Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nai Fovino, Igor [Joint Research Centre - EC, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, VA (Italy)], E-mail: igor.nai@jrc.it; Masera, Marcelo [Joint Research Centre - EC, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, VA (Italy); De Cian, Alessio [Department of Electrical Engineering, University di Genova, Genoa (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    In this paper, a new method for quantitative security risk assessment of complex systems is presented, combining fault-tree analysis, traditionally used in reliability analysis, with the recently introduced Attack-tree analysis, proposed for the study of malicious attack patterns. The combined use of fault trees and attack trees helps the analyst to effectively face the security challenges posed by the introduction of modern ICT technologies in the control systems of critical infrastructures. The proposed approach allows considering the interaction of malicious deliberate acts with random failures. Formal definitions of fault tree and attack tree are provided and a mathematical model for the calculation of system fault probabilities is presented.

  16. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix I. Accident definition and use of event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning accident definition and use of event trees, event tree methodology, potential accidents covered by the reactor safety study, analysis of potential accidents involving the reactor core, and analysis of potential accidents not involving the core

  17. Workload, Exposure to Noise, and Risk of Musculoskeletal Disorders: A Case Study of Motor-Manual Tree Feeling and Processing in Poplar Clear Cuts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Cheţa

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Motor-manual tree felling and processing (MMTFP is among the most used options in timber harvesting operations and it is formally known to be a heavy job exposing the workers to safety hazards and harmful factors. Nevertheless, both workload and exposure depend on many operational, organizational, and worker-related parameters. Few studies have evaluated the ergonomics of such operations and fewer have been carried out using an integrated approach able to collect and interpret data for more than one ergonomic parameter. This study evaluated the ergonomic conditions of task-based MMTFP operations in flatland poplar forests by the means of workload, exposure to noise, and risk of musculoskeletal disorders. A fully-automatic approach was used to collect and pair the heart rate and noise exposure data that was complemented by video recording to collect postural data. Workload experienced by the worker was evaluated in terms of heart rate reserve (%HRR, indicating a heavy load during the productive time (%HRR = 46%; exposure to noise was calculated at the task and study level, exceeding (LAeq = 97.15 dB(A; LEX,8h = 96.18 dB(A the acceptable limits; and the risk of musculoskeletal disorders was evaluated using the concepts and procedures of the Ovako Working Posture Analysis System, indicating a high postural risk index (PRI = 275, which can cause musculoskeletal disorders (MSD. For more conclusive results, the research should be extended to cover the relevant variability factors.

  18. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  19. Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

  20. A regression tree for identifying combinations of fall risk factors associated to recurrent falling: a cross-sectional elderly population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabeshova, A; Annweiler, C; Fantino, B; Philip, T; Gromov, V A; Launay, C P; Beauchet, O

    2014-06-01

    Regression tree (RT) analyses are particularly adapted to explore the risk of recurrent falling according to various combinations of fall risk factors compared to logistic regression models. The aims of this study were (1) to determine which combinations of fall risk factors were associated with the occurrence of recurrent falls in older community-dwellers, and (2) to compare the efficacy of RT and multiple logistic regression model for the identification of recurrent falls. A total of 1,760 community-dwelling volunteers (mean age ± standard deviation, 71.0 ± 5.1 years; 49.4 % female) were recruited prospectively in this cross-sectional study. Age, gender, polypharmacy, use of psychoactive drugs, fear of falling (FOF), cognitive disorders and sad mood were recorded. In addition, the history of falls within the past year was recorded using a standardized questionnaire. Among 1,760 participants, 19.7 % (n = 346) were recurrent fallers. The RT identified 14 nodes groups and 8 end nodes with FOF as the first major split. Among participants with FOF, those who had sad mood and polypharmacy formed the end node with the greatest OR for recurrent falls (OR = 6.06 with p falls (OR = 0.25 with p factors for recurrent falls, the combination most associated with recurrent falls involving FOF, sad mood and polypharmacy. The FOF emerged as the risk factor strongly associated with recurrent falls. In addition, RT and multiple logistic regression were not sensitive enough to identify the majority of recurrent fallers but appeared efficient in detecting individuals not at risk of recurrent falls.

  1. Decision tree-based modelling for identification of potential interactions between type 2 diabetes risk factors: a decade follow-up in a Middle East prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramezankhani, Azra; Hadavandi, Esmaeil; Pournik, Omid; Shahrabi, Jamal; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

    2016-12-01

    The current study was undertaken for use of the decision tree (DT) method for development of different prediction models for incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and for exploring interactions between predictor variables in those models. Prospective cohort study. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). A total of 6647 participants (43.4% men) aged >20 years, without T2D at baselines ((1999-2001) and (2002-2005)), were followed until 2012. 2 series of models (with and without 2-hour postchallenge plasma glucose (2h-PCPG)) were developed using 3 types of DT algorithms. The performances of the models were assessed using sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve (AUC), geometric mean (G-Mean) and F-Measure. T2D was primary outcome which defined if fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was ≥7 mmol/L or if the 2h-PCPG was ≥11.1 mmol/L or if the participant was taking antidiabetic medication. During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 729 new cases of T2D were identified. The Quick Unbiased Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST) algorithm had the highest sensitivity and G-Mean among all the models for men and women. The models that included 2h-PCPG had sensitivity and G-Mean of (78% and 0.75%) and (78% and 0.78%) for men and women, respectively. Both models achieved good discrimination power with AUC above 0.78. FPG, 2h-PCPG, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) were the most important factors to incidence of T2D in both genders. Among men, those with an FPG≤4.9 mmol/L and 2h-PCPG≤7.7 mmol/L had the lowest risk, and those with an FPG>5.3 mmol/L and 2h-PCPG>4.4 mmol/L had the highest risk for T2D incidence. In women, those with an FPG≤5.2 mmol/L and WHtR≤0.55 had the lowest risk, and those with an FPG>5.2 mmol/L and WHtR>0.56 had the highest risk for T2D incidence. Our study emphasises the utility of DT for exploring interactions between predictor variables. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission

  2. Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

  3. Integration of fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP for risk assessment in mining industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Verma

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Mining industry has always been known for its unsafe working environment. This industry is one of the most hazard prone industries. To maintain safety in workplace timely assessment of risk associated with different operations performed to extract ore from the ore body has become necessity. To serve the said purpose, present work demonstrates a robust hybrid risk assessment approach for mining industry.Design/Methodology: Accident data from 1995 to 2012 is reviewed to identify hazards contributed to negative outcomes. The FRA approach is implemented to evaluate the risk levels associated with identified hazard factors. Thereafter AHP pairwise comparison matrix is developed to obtain priority weights for the hazard factors. Final priority of hazards based on severity of level of risk associated with them is obtained considering the outcome of FRA approach in terms of risk score for the hazards, combined with the priority weights obtained from AHP technique.Findings: Defuzzified FAHP weight of hazard factors, this weight gives priority sequence of hazards to be considered for development of plan of mitigation.Originality/Value: Risk assessment is a requirement of the Occupational Health and Safety Act 2000 (Section 7& 8. The data required to assess the risk is uncertain, and in such case fuzzy approach is well suited to process the data and get the crisp output. The output of fuzzy approach is made robust with its integration to AHP. In this way FAHP can be used as robust technique for risk assessment in this industry and this technique develops an efficient safety management system for the achievement of goal to develop the workplace with zero accident, which many other countries have already achieved.

  4. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  5. Analytic trigonometry

    CERN Document Server

    Bruce, William J; Maxwell, E A; Sneddon, I N

    1963-01-01

    Analytic Trigonometry details the fundamental concepts and underlying principle of analytic geometry. The title aims to address the shortcomings in the instruction of trigonometry by considering basic theories of learning and pedagogy. The text first covers the essential elements from elementary algebra, plane geometry, and analytic geometry. Next, the selection tackles the trigonometric functions of angles in general, basic identities, and solutions of equations. The text also deals with the trigonometric functions of real numbers. The fifth chapter details the inverse trigonometric functions

  6. Analytical Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Analytical Labspecializes in Oil and Hydraulic Fluid Analysis, Identification of Unknown Materials, Engineering Investigations, Qualification Testing (to support...

  7. Comparison of the analytical and clinical performances of Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV, Hybrid Capture 2, and DNA Chip assays in gynecology patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seungman; Kang, Youjin; Kim, Dong Geun; Kim, Eui-Chong; Park, Sung Sup; Seong, Moon-Woo

    2013-08-01

    The detection of high-risk (HR) HPV in cervical cancer screening is important for early diagnosis of cervical cancer or pre-cancerous lesions. We evaluated the analytical and clinical performances of 3 HR HPV assays in Gynecology patients. A total of 991 specimens were included in this study: 787 specimens for use with a Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and 204 specimens for a HPV DNA microarray (DNA Chip). All specimens were tested using an Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV assay (Real-time HR), PGMY PCR, and sequence analysis. Clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal cytology (severe than high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) were 81.8% for Real-time HR, 77.3% for HC2, and 66.7% for DNA Chip, and clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal histology (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+) were 91.7% for HC2, 87.5% for Real-time HR, and 73.3% for DNA Chip. As compared to results of the sequence analysis, HC2, Real-time HR, and DNA Chip showed concordance rates of 94.3% (115/122), 90.0% (117/130), and 61.5% (16/26), respectively. The HC2 assay and Real-time HR assay showed comparable results to each other in both clinical and analytical performances, while the DNA Chip assay showed poor clinical and analytical performances. The Real-time HR assay can be a good alternative option for HR HPV testing with advantages of allowing full automation and simultaneous genotyping of HR types 16 and 18. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Consideration of Dose Limits for Organs at Risk of Thoracic Radiotherapy: Atlas for Lung, Proximal Bronchial Tree, Esophagus, Spinal Cord, Ribs, and Brachial Plexus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kong, Feng-Ming; Ritter, Timothy; Quint, Douglas J.; Senan, Suresh; Gaspar, Laurie E.; Komaki, Ritsuko U.; Hurkmans, Coen W.; Timmerman, Robert; Bezjak, Andrea; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Movsas, Benjamin; Marsh, Lon; Okunieff, Paul; Choy, Hak; Curran, Walter J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To review the dose limits and standardize the three-dimenional (3D) radiographic definition for the organs at risk (OARs) for thoracic radiotherapy (RT), including the lung, proximal bronchial tree, esophagus, spinal cord, ribs, and brachial plexus. Methods and Materials: The present study was performed by representatives from the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer, and Soutwestern Oncology Group lung cancer committees. The dosimetric constraints of major multicenter trials of 3D-conformal RT and stereotactic body RT were reviewed and the challenges of 3D delineation of these OARs described. Using knowledge of the human anatomy and 3D radiographic correlation, draft atlases were generated by a radiation oncologist, medical physicist, dosimetrist, and radiologist from the United States and reviewed by a radiation oncologist and medical physicist from Europe. The atlases were then critically reviewed, discussed, and edited by another 10 radiation oncologists. Results: Three-dimensional descriptions of the lung, proximal bronchial tree, esophagus, spinal cord, ribs, and brachial plexus are presented. Two computed tomography atlases were developed: one for the middle and lower thoracic OARs (except for the heart) and one focusing on the brachial plexus for a patient positioned supine with their arms up for thoracic RT. The dosimetric limits of the key OARs are discussed. Conclusions: We believe these atlases will allow us to define OARs with less variation and generate dosimetric data in a more consistent manner. This could help us study the effect of radiation on these OARs and guide high-quality clinical trials and individualized practice in 3D-conformal RT and stereotactic body RT.

  9. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    deciduous tree with irregularly-shaped trunk, greyish-white scaly bark and milky latex. Leaves in opposite pairs are simple, oblong and whitish beneath. Flowers that occur in branched inflorescence are white, 2–. 3cm across and fragrant. Calyx is glandular inside. Petals bear numerous linear white scales, the corollary.

  10. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Berrya cordifolia (Willd.) Burret (Syn. B. ammonilla Roxb.) – Trincomali Wood of Tiliaceae is a tall evergreen tree with straight trunk, smooth brownish-grey bark and simple broad leaves. Inflorescence is much branched with white flowers. Stamens are many with golden yellow anthers. Fruit is a capsule with six spreading ...

  11. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Canthium parviflorum Lam. of Rubiaceae is a large shrub that often grows into a small tree with conspicuous spines. Leaves are simple, in pairs at each node and are shiny. Inflorescence is an axillary few-flowered cymose fascicle. Flowers are small (less than 1 cm across), 4-merous and greenish-white. Fruit is ellipsoid ...

  12. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    sriranga

    Hook.f. ex Brandis (Yellow. Cadamba) of Rubiaceae is a large and handsome deciduous tree. Leaves are simple, large, orbicular, and drawn abruptly at the apex. Flowers are small, yellowish and aggregate into small spherical heads. The corolla is funnel-shaped with five stamens inserted at its mouth. Fruit is a capsule.

  13. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Celtis tetrandra Roxb. of Ulmaceae is a moderately large handsome deciduous tree with green branchlets and grayish-brown bark. Leaves are simple with three to four secondary veins running parallel to the mid vein. Flowers are solitary, male, female and bisexual and inconspicuous. Fruit is berry-like, small and globose ...

  14. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    Aglaia elaeagnoidea (A.Juss.) Benth. of Meliaceae is a small-sized evergreen tree of both moist and dry deciduous forests. The leaves are alternate and pinnately compound, terminating in a single leaflet. Leaflets are more or less elliptic with entire margin. Flowers are small on branched inflorescence. Fruit is a globose ...

  15. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    user

    Flowers are borne on stiff bunches terminally on short shoots. They are 2-3 cm across, white, sweet-scented with light-brown hairy sepals and many stamens. Loquat fruits are round or pear-shaped, 3-5 cm long and are edible. A native of China, Loquat tree is grown in parks as an ornamental and also for its fruits.

  16. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mid-sized slow-growing evergreen tree with spreading branches that form a dense crown. The bark is smooth, thick, dark and flakes off in large shreds. Leaves are thick, oblong, leathery and bright red when young. The female flowers are drooping and are larger than male flowers. Fruit is large, red in color and velvety.

  17. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Andira inermis (wright) DC. , Dog Almond of Fabaceae is a handsome lofty evergreen tree. Leaves are alternate and pinnately compound with 4–7 pairs of leaflets. Flowers are fragrant and are borne on compact branched inflorescences. Fruit is ellipsoidal one-seeded drupe that is peculiar to members of this family.

  18. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    narrow towards base. Flowers are large and attrac- tive, but emit unpleasant foetid smell. They appear in small numbers on erect terminal clusters and open at night. Stamens are numerous, pink or white. Style is slender and long, terminating in a small stigma. Fruit is green, ovoid and indistinctly lobed. Flowering Trees.

  19. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Muntingia calabura L. (Singapore cherry) of. Elaeocarpaceae is a medium size handsome ever- green tree. Leaves are simple and alternate with sticky hairs. Flowers are bisexual, bear numerous stamens, white in colour and arise in the leaf axils. Fruit is a berry, edible with several small seeds embedded in a fleshy pulp ...

  20. ~{owering 'Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    . Stamens are fused into a purple staminal tube that is toothed. Fruit is about 0.5 in. across, nearly globose, generally 5-seeded, green but yellow when ripe, quite smooth at first but wrinkled in drying, remaining long on the tree ajier ripening.

  1. Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. However, extremely high mortality also can be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  2. Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Guaiacum officinale L. (LIGNUM-VITAE) of Zygophyllaceae is a dense-crowned, squat, knobbly, rough and twisted medium-sized ev- ergreen tree with mottled bark. The wood is very hard and resinous. Leaves are compound. The leaflets are smooth, leathery, ovate-ellipti- cal and appear in two pairs. Flowers (about 1.5.

  3. Estimating the risk for suicide following the suicide deaths of 3 Asian entertainment celebrities: a meta-analytic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, King-Wa; Yip, Paul S F

    2009-06-01

    Evidence suggests that there is an increase in the suicide rate following incidents of celebrity suicide in different countries, but there are no data on the overall suicide risk across countries. The duration of increased suicide rates is usually assumed to be on a monthly basis, but the weekly increase remains uncertain. This study aims at estimating the risk for suicide after the suicide deaths of entertainment celebrities in Asia during the first 4 weeks after the celebrity suicides and on a weekly basis. An ecological, retrospective time-series analysis and a meta-analysis of the suicide deaths in 3 Asian regions: Hong Kong (from 2001 to 2003), Taiwan, and South Korea (both from 2003 to 2005). The combined risks for suicide were found to be 1.43 (95% CI = 1.23 to 1.66), 1.29 (95% CI = 1.12 to 1.50), and 1.25 (95% CI = 1.08 to 1.45) in the first, second, and third week, respectively, after suicides of entertainment celebrities, while adjusting for secular trends, seasonality, economic situation, and temporal autocorrelation. The same-gender and same-method specific increases suggest that as people identify more with the celebrity, their risk for suicide rises. A medium-term rise in suicides up to 24 weeks after the incidents of celebrity suicide is also evident. This study is the first to estimate risk for suicides following celebrity suicides across 3 Asian regions. The results provide important information for public health policy makers in assessing the elevated risk associated with excessive media coverage of celebrity suicide and developing timely evidence-based interventions. Copyright 2009 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  4. Biomonitoring, status and source risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) using honeybees, pine tree leaves, and propolis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargar, Navid; Matin, Golnar; Matin, Amir Abbas; Buyukisik, Hasan Baha

    2017-11-01

    In this study, to identify and quantify the sources of airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), we gathered honeybee, pine tree leaf, and propolis samples to serve as bioindicators from five stations in the village of "Bozkoy" in the Aliaga industrial district of Izmir (Turkey) during April-May 2014. The PAH concentrations which measured by gas chromatography (GC) varied from 261.18 to 553.33 μg kg -1 dry weight (dw) in honeybee samples, 138.57-853.67 μg kg -1 dw in pine leaf samples, and 798.61-2905.53 μg kg -1 dw in propolis samples. The total PAH concentrations can be ranked as follows: propolis > pine leaves > honeybees. The ring sequence pattern was 5 > 3 > 6 > 4 > 2 for honeybees, 5 > 3 > 4 > 6 > 2 for pine leaves, and 5 > 4 > 6 > 3 > 2 for propolis. The diagnostic ratios [fluoranthene/fluoranthene + pyrene], [indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene/indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene + benzo(g,h,i)perylene], and [benzo(a)anthracene/benzo(a)anthracene + chrysene] indicate coal and biomass combustion to be the dominant PAH source in the study area. In biomonitoring studies of airborne PAHs based on honeybees, fluoranthene is considered to be a characteristic PAH compound. Distribution maps with different numbers of PAH rings among the sampling sites show the advantages of honeybee samples as indicators due to the honeybee's provision of a broader range of information with respect to heavier pollutants that are typically not in the gas or suspended phase for long periods of time. Our correlation, factor analysis, and principal components analysis (PCA) results indicate potential sources of PAH pollution in pine leaves and honeybees from airborne emissions, but we found propolis to be contaminated by PAHs due to the replacement of herbal sources of resins with synthetic gummy substances from paving materials (e.g., asphalt and tar leaks). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Heavy metal levels in kiwifruit orchard soils and trees and its potential health risk assessment in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jing; Yue, Tianli; Li, Xiaotong; Yuan, Yahong

    2016-07-01

    Concentrations of five heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb) in orchard soils and kiwifruit tissues (root, twig, leave, fruit) collected from Shaanxi province in China were measured, and the potential health risk for human through the fruit consumption was assessed. The orchard soils were in no pollution for Cr, Cu, Hg, and Pb, with their pollution index (PI) ≤1, while 10.0 % of the soil samples were under Cd contamination. Furthermore, kiwifruit tended to have a higher Cd and Hg accumulation (as indicated by Biological Accumulation Coefficient) from soil and have a higher Cu and Hg translocation (as reflected by Biological Transfer Coefficient) to aboveground parts. From the human health point of view, the DIM and HRI values for all the fruit samples were within the safe limits, while for Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb, about 22.5, 12.5, 52.5, 15.0, and 47.5 % of the fruit samples exceeded the national maximum permissible levels, respectively. These results showed that, although there was no possible health risk to consumers due to intake of studied kiwifruit fruits under the current consumption rate, the regular survey of heavy metal pollution levels should be performed for the kiwifruit in Shaanxi province and a strict management program should be established to reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides used in fruit production in order to prevent the potential health risk.

  6. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Topuz, E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and

  7. Validation of an online risk calculator for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colon cancer surgery and preliminary exploration of artificial intelligence-based analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammour, T; Cohen, L; Karunatillake, A I; Lewis, M; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W; Thomas, M L

    2017-11-01

    Recently published data support the use of a web-based risk calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ) for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate this calculator on a larger dataset. Consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency colectomy for colon cancer at a single institution over a 9-year period were identified using the Binational Colorectal Cancer Audit database. Patients with a rectosigmoid cancer, an R2 resection, or a diverting ostomy were excluded. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was derived and compared with that of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program ® (ACS NSQIP) calculator and the colon leakage score (CLS) calculator for left colectomy. Commercially available artificial intelligence-based analytics software was used to further interrogate the prediction algorithm. A total of 626 patients were identified. Four hundred and fifty-six patients met the inclusion criteria, and 402 had complete data available for all the calculator variables (126 had a left colectomy). Laparoscopic surgery was performed in 39.6% and emergency surgery in 14.7%. The anastomotic leak rate was 7.2%, with 31.0% requiring reoperation. The anastomoticleak.com calculator was significantly predictive of leak and performed better than the ACS NSQIP calculator (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.58) and the CLS calculator (AUROC 0.96 vs 0.80) for left colectomy. Artificial intelligence-predictive analysis supported these findings and identified an improved prediction model. The anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly predictive of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection. Wider investigation of artificial intelligence-based analytics for risk prediction is warranted.

  8. Is low self-esteem a risk factor for depression among adolescents? an analytical study with interventional component

    OpenAIRE

    Jayanthi P, Rajamanickam Rajkumar

    2014-01-01

    Background: Self – esteem is an important factor for helping persons deal with life stressors. It is an important determinant of psychological well-being that is particularly problematic during an adolescent life stage. Low self-esteem might contribute to depression through both interpersonal and intrapersonal pathways. Many theories of depression postulate that low self esteem is a defining feature of depression. Aims: Self-esteem in adolescents has been associated with a number of risk and ...

  9. Analytic geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Burdette, A C

    1971-01-01

    Analytic Geometry covers several fundamental aspects of analytic geometry needed for advanced subjects, including calculus.This book is composed of 12 chapters that review the principles, concepts, and analytic proofs of geometric theorems, families of lines, the normal equation of the line, and related matters. Other chapters highlight the application of graphing, foci, directrices, eccentricity, and conic-related topics. The remaining chapters deal with the concept polar and rectangular coordinates, surfaces and curves, and planes.This book will prove useful to undergraduate trigonometric st

  10. Using Fault Trees to Advance Understanding of Diagnostic Errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogith, Deevakar; Iyengar, M Sriram; Singh, Hardeep

    2017-11-01

    Diagnostic errors annually affect at least 5% of adults in the outpatient setting in the United States. Formal analytic techniques are only infrequently used to understand them, in part because of the complexity of diagnostic processes and clinical work flows involved. In this article, diagnostic errors were modeled using fault tree analysis (FTA), a form of root cause analysis that has been successfully used in other high-complexity, high-risk contexts. How factors contributing to diagnostic errors can be systematically modeled by FTA to inform error understanding and error prevention is demonstrated. A team of three experts reviewed 10 published cases of diagnostic error and constructed fault trees. The fault trees were modeled according to currently available conceptual frameworks characterizing diagnostic error. The 10 trees were then synthesized into a single fault tree to identify common contributing factors and pathways leading to diagnostic error. FTA is a visual, structured, deductive approach that depicts the temporal sequence of events and their interactions in a formal logical hierarchy. The visual FTA enables easier understanding of causative processes and cognitive and system factors, as well as rapid identification of common pathways and interactions in a unified fashion. In addition, it enables calculation of empirical estimates for causative pathways. Thus, fault trees might provide a useful framework for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of diagnostic errors. Future directions include establishing validity and reliability by modeling a wider range of error cases, conducting quantitative evaluations, and undertaking deeper exploration of other FTA capabilities. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Simple Decision-Analytic Functions of the AUC for Ruling Out a Risk Prediction Model and an Added Predictor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2018-02-01

    When using risk prediction models, an important consideration is weighing performance against the cost (monetary and harms) of ascertaining predictors. The minimum test tradeoff (MTT) for ruling out a model is the minimum number of all-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. The MTT for ruling out an added predictor is the minimum number of added-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out a model is 1/[P (H(AUC model )], where H(AUC) = AUC - {½ (1-AUC)} ½ , AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and P is the probability of the predicted event in the target population. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out an added predictor is 1 /[P {(H(AUC Model:2 ) - H(AUC Model:1 )], where Model 2 includes an added predictor relative to Model 1. The latter approximation requires the Tangent Condition that the true positive rate at the point on the ROC curve with a slope of 1 is larger for Model 2 than Model 1. These approximations are suitable for back-of-the-envelope calculations. For example, in a study predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer, Model 2 adds to the predictors in Model 1 a set of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Based on the AUCs and the Tangent Condition, an MTT of 7200 was computed, which indicates that 7200 sets of SNPs are needed for every correct prediction of breast cancer to yield a positive overall expected utility. If ascertaining the SNPs costs $500, this MTT suggests that SNP ascertainment is not likely worthwhile for this risk prediction.

  12. Is low self-esteem a risk factor for depression among adolescents? an analytical study with interventional component

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayanthi P, Rajamanickam Rajkumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self – esteem is an important factor for helping persons deal with life stressors. It is an important determinant of psychological well-being that is particularly problematic during an adolescent life stage. Low self-esteem might contribute to depression through both interpersonal and intrapersonal pathways. Many theories of depression postulate that low self esteem is a defining feature of depression. Aims: Self-esteem in adolescents has been associated with a number of risk and protective factors in previous studies. This study examined the relationship between low self esteem and depression among adolescents. Methods: This study used a case control (retrospective design. Samples of 1120 adolescents, aged 14-17 years were selected for the study. Screening was done by using MINI-KID and the level of depression was assessed by using Beck depression inventory. Self esteem was measured by Rosenberg self esteem scale. Odds Ratio and Multivariate logistic regression were used to examine the relation between self-esteem and socio-demographic variables. Results: The odds ratio analysis revealed that adolescents who had low self esteem found to have 3.7 times (95% CI=1.9-6.9 and p- value 0.001 more risk of developing depression than the adolescents who had high self esteem. Conclusions: The findings implied that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression among adolescents. Adolescents with low self esteem have to be identified earlier and prompt interventions will prevent future psychiatric illnesses. As an intervention towards the educational component pamphlet was distributed to the adolescents, parents and teachers. A concept programme called “Self Esteem Education & Development – SEED” programme, is planned for, from High school level.

  13. Do impression management and self-deception distort self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors in offender samples? A meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Martin; Wibbelink, Carlijn J M; Verschuere, Bruno

    Self-report measures provide an important source of information in correctional/forensic settings, yet at the same time the validity of that information is often questioned because self-reports are thought to be highly vulnerable to self-presentation biases. Primary studies in offender samples have provided mixed results with regard to the impact of socially desirable responding on self-reports. The main aim of the current study was therefore to investigate-via a meta-analytic review of published studies-the association between the two dimensions of socially desirable responding, impression management and self-deceptive enhancement, and self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors using the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding (BIDR) in offender samples. These self-report measures were significantly and negatively related with self-deception (r = -0.120, p impression management (r = -0.158, p impression management effect with the trim and fill method indicating that the relation is probably even smaller (r = -0.07). The magnitude of the effect sizes was small. Moderation analyses suggested that type of dynamic risk factor (e.g., antisocial cognition versus antisocial personality), incentives, and publication year affected the relationship between impression management and self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors, whereas sample size, setting (e.g., incarcerated, community), and publication year influenced the relation between self-deception and these self-report measures. The results indicate that the use of self-report measures to assess dynamic risk factors in correctional/forensic settings is not inevitably compromised by socially desirable responding, yet caution is warranted for some risk factors (antisocial personality traits), particularly when incentives are at play. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The nature and structure of psychological distress in people at high risk for melanoma: a factor analytic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasparian, Nadine A; Sansom-Daly, Ursula; McDonald, Roderick P; Meiser, Bettina; Butow, Phyllis N; Mann, Graham J

    2012-08-01

    This study examined the psychometric properties of two commonly used measures of psychological distress, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Impact of Events Scale (IES) in a sample of individuals at high risk of developing melanoma due to strong family history. One hundred thirty-two individuals with a known family-specific CDKN2A mutation (74% response rate) completed a mailed, self-administered questionnaire including the HADS and the IES. Initial correlational analyses were followed by both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, according to a predetermined procedure for order of analyses. Exploratory factor analyses found that neither a two-, three- or four-factor solution satisfactorily accounted for all IES items in the present sample. By contrast, a unidimensional account of the data emerged to best account for all IES items, leaving no items unaccounted for. In contrast, the traditional two-factor (anxiety and depression) structure of the HADS appeared to fit the data well. The traditional, two-factor (intrusion and avoidance) structure of the IES was not borne out within this familial melanoma cohort. Assessment of a single dimension of emotional distress in response to melanoma risk may facilitate more meaningful explorations of psychological adjustment in this context. These findings also raise questions about whether a post-traumatic stress framework is indeed the most appropriate framework to capture the unique nature of melanoma- or cancer-related distress. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Kate H.; Franklin, Joseph C.; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Fox, Kathryn R.; Nock, Matthew K.

    2016-01-01

    Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed. PMID:26688478

  16. Analytical chemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chae, Myeong Hu; Lee, Hu Jun; Kim, Ha Seok

    1989-02-15

    This book give explanations on analytical chemistry with ten chapters, which deal with development of analytical chemistry, the theory of error with definition and classification, sample and treatment gravimetry on general process of gravimetry in aqueous solution and non-aqueous solution, precipitation titration about precipitation reaction and types, complexometry with summary and complex compound, oxidation-reduction equilibrium on electrode potential and potentiometric titration, solvent extraction and chromatograph and experiment with basic operation for chemical experiment.

  17. Analytical chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Myeong Hu; Lee, Hu Jun; Kim, Ha Seok

    1989-02-01

    This book give explanations on analytical chemistry with ten chapters, which deal with development of analytical chemistry, the theory of error with definition and classification, sample and treatment gravimetry on general process of gravimetry in aqueous solution and non-aqueous solution, precipitation titration about precipitation reaction and types, complexometry with summary and complex compound, oxidation-reduction equilibrium on electrode potential and potentiometric titration, solvent extraction and chromatograph and experiment with basic operation for chemical experiment.

  18. The Effects of Risk-Glorifying Media Exposure on Risk-Positive Cognitions, Emotions, and Behaviors: A Meta-Analytic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmuller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their…

  19. Surface tree languages and parallel derivation trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelfriet, Joost

    1976-01-01

    The surface tree languages obtained by top-down finite state transformation of monadic trees are exactly the frontier-preserving homomorphic images of sets of derivation trees of ETOL systems. The corresponding class of tree transformation languages is therefore equal to the class of ETOL languages.

  20. Sexual risk reduction for HIV-infected persons: a meta-analytic review of "positive prevention" randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Lu; Wang, Na; Vermund, Sten H; Shepherd, Bryan E; Ruan, Yuhua; Shao, Yiming; Qian, Han-Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Prevention intervention trials have been conducted to reduce risk of sexual transmission among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), but the findings were inconsistent. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate overall efficacy of prevention interventions on unprotected vaginal or anal intercourse (UVAI) among PLWHA from randomized clinical trials (RCTs). RCTs of prevention interventions among PLWHA published as of February 2012 were identified by systematically searching thirteen electronic databases. The primary outcome was UVAI. The difference of standardized mean difference (SMD) of UVAI between study arms, defined as effect size (ES), was calculated for each study and then pooled across studies using standard meta-analysis with a random effects model. Lower likelihood of UVAI was observed in the intervention arms compared with the control arms either with any sexual partners (mean ES: -0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.32, -0.11) or with HIV-negative or unknown-status sexual partners (mean ES and 95% CI: -0.13 [-0.22, -0.04]). Short-term efficacy of interventions with ≤ 10 months of follow up was significant in reducing UVAI (1-5 months: -0.27 [-0.45, -0.10]; 6-10 months: -0.18 [-0.30, -0.07]), while long-term efficacy of interventions was weaker and might have been due to chance (11-15 months: -0.13 [-0.34, 0.08]; >15 months: -0.05 [-0.43, 0.32]). Our meta-analyses confirmed the short-term impact of prevention interventions on reducing self-reported UVAI among PLWHA irrespective of the type of sexual partner, but did not support a definite conclusion on long-term effect. It is suggested that booster intervention sessions are needed to maintain a sustainable reduction of unprotected sex among PLWHA in future risk reduction programs.

  1. The cardiovascular risk of young women with polycystic ovary syndrome: an observational, analytical, prospective case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orio, Francesco; Palomba, Stefano; Spinelli, Letizia; Cascella, Teresa; Tauchmanovà, Libuse; Zullo, Fulvio; Lombardi, Gaetano; Colao, Annamaria

    2004-08-01

    To evaluate the cardiovascular risk of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), we investigated lipid profile, metabolic pattern, and echocardiography in 30 young women with PCOS and 30 healthy age- and body mass index (BMI)-matched women. PCOS women had higher fasting glucose and insulin levels, homeostasis model assessment score of insulin sensitivity, total cholesterol (TC) and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels, and TC/high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and lower HDL-C levels than controls. Additionally, PCOS women had higher left atrium size (32.0 +/- 4.9 vs. 27.4 +/- 2.1 mm; P index (80.5 +/- 18.1 vs. 56.1 +/- 5.4 g/m(2); P 18 and 30 kg/m(2))], the differences between PCOS women and controls were maintained in overweight and obese women. In normal weight PCOS women, a significant increase in left ventricular mass index and a decrease in diastolic filling were observed, notwithstanding no change in TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, TC/HDL-C ratio, and TG compared with controls. In conclusion, our data show the detrimental effect of PCOS on the cardiovascular system even in young women asymptomatic for cardiac disease.

  2. Trees are good, but…

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.G. McPherson; F. Ferrini

    2010-01-01

    We know that “trees are good,” and most people believe this to be true. But if this is so, why are so many trees neglected, and so many tree wells empty? An individual’s attitude toward trees may result from their firsthand encounters with specific trees. Understanding how attitudes about trees are shaped, particularly aversion to trees, is critical to the business of...

  3. Analytical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Lemos, Nivaldo A

    2018-01-01

    Analytical mechanics is the foundation of many areas of theoretical physics including quantum theory and statistical mechanics, and has wide-ranging applications in engineering and celestial mechanics. This introduction to the basic principles and methods of analytical mechanics covers Lagrangian and Hamiltonian dynamics, rigid bodies, small oscillations, canonical transformations and Hamilton–Jacobi theory. This fully up-to-date textbook includes detailed mathematical appendices and addresses a number of advanced topics, some of them of a geometric or topological character. These include Bertrand's theorem, proof that action is least, spontaneous symmetry breakdown, constrained Hamiltonian systems, non-integrability criteria, KAM theory, classical field theory, Lyapunov functions, geometric phases and Poisson manifolds. Providing worked examples, end-of-chapter problems, and discussion of ongoing research in the field, it is suitable for advanced undergraduate students and graduate students studying analyt...

  4. Analytical quadrics

    CERN Document Server

    Spain, Barry; Ulam, S; Stark, M

    1960-01-01

    Analytical Quadrics focuses on the analytical geometry of three dimensions. The book first discusses the theory of the plane, sphere, cone, cylinder, straight line, and central quadrics in their standard forms. The idea of the plane at infinity is introduced through the homogenous Cartesian coordinates and applied to the nature of the intersection of three planes and to the circular sections of quadrics. The text also focuses on paraboloid, including polar properties, center of a section, axes of plane section, and generators of hyperbolic paraboloid. The book also touches on homogenous coordi

  5. ETE: a python Environment for Tree Exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta-Cepas, Jaime; Dopazo, Joaquín; Gabaldón, Toni

    2010-01-13

    Many bioinformatics analyses, ranging from gene clustering to phylogenetics, produce hierarchical trees as their main result. These are used to represent the relationships among different biological entities, thus facilitating their analysis and interpretation. A number of standalone programs are available that focus on tree visualization or that perform specific analyses on them. However, such applications are rarely suitable for large-scale surveys, in which a higher level of automation is required. Currently, many genome-wide analyses rely on tree-like data representation and hence there is a growing need for scalable tools to handle tree structures at large scale. Here we present the Environment for Tree Exploration (ETE), a python programming toolkit that assists in the automated manipulation, analysis and visualization of hierarchical trees. ETE libraries provide a broad set of tree handling options as well as specific methods to analyze phylogenetic and clustering trees. Among other features, ETE allows for the independent analysis of tree partitions, has support for the extended newick format, provides an integrated node annotation system and permits to link trees to external data such as multiple sequence alignments or numerical arrays. In addition, ETE implements a number of built-in analytical tools, including phylogeny-based orthology prediction and cluster validation techniques. Finally, ETE's programmable tree drawing engine can be used to automate the graphical rendering of trees with customized node-specific visualizations. ETE provides a complete set of methods to manipulate tree data structures that extends current functionality in other bioinformatic toolkits of a more general purpose. ETE is free software and can be downloaded from http://ete.cgenomics.org.

  6. ETE: a python Environment for Tree Exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabaldón Toni

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many bioinformatics analyses, ranging from gene clustering to phylogenetics, produce hierarchical trees as their main result. These are used to represent the relationships among different biological entities, thus facilitating their analysis and interpretation. A number of standalone programs are available that focus on tree visualization or that perform specific analyses on them. However, such applications are rarely suitable for large-scale surveys, in which a higher level of automation is required. Currently, many genome-wide analyses rely on tree-like data representation and hence there is a growing need for scalable tools to handle tree structures at large scale. Results Here we present the Environment for Tree Exploration (ETE, a python programming toolkit that assists in the automated manipulation, analysis and visualization of hierarchical trees. ETE libraries provide a broad set of tree handling options as well as specific methods to analyze phylogenetic and clustering trees. Among other features, ETE allows for the independent analysis of tree partitions, has support for the extended newick format, provides an integrated node annotation system and permits to link trees to external data such as multiple sequence alignments or numerical arrays. In addition, ETE implements a number of built-in analytical tools, including phylogeny-based orthology prediction and cluster validation techniques. Finally, ETE's programmable tree drawing engine can be used to automate the graphical rendering of trees with customized node-specific visualizations. Conclusions ETE provides a complete set of methods to manipulate tree data structures that extends current functionality in other bioinformatic toolkits of a more general purpose. ETE is free software and can be downloaded from http://ete.cgenomics.org.

  7. VC-dimension of univariate decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Olcay Taner

    2015-02-01

    In this paper, we give and prove the lower bounds of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC)-dimension of the univariate decision tree hypothesis class. The VC-dimension of the univariate decision tree depends on the VC-dimension values of its subtrees and the number of inputs. Via a search algorithm that calculates the VC-dimension of univariate decision trees exhaustively, we show that our VC-dimension bounds are tight for simple trees. To verify that the VC-dimension bounds are useful, we also use them to get VC-generalization bounds for complexity control using structural risk minimization in decision trees, i.e., pruning. Our simulation results show that structural risk minimization pruning using the VC-dimension bounds finds trees that are more accurate as those pruned using cross validation.

  8. Modular tree automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahr, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Tree automata are traditionally used to study properties of tree languages and tree transformations. In this paper, we consider tree automata as the basis for modular and extensible recursion schemes. We show, using well-known techniques, how to derive from standard tree automata highly modular...

  9. Simple street tree sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; James Baldwin; Jerry. Bond

    2015-01-01

    Information on street trees is critical for management of this important resource. Sampling of street tree populations provides an efficient means to obtain street tree population information. Long-term repeat measures of street tree samples supply additional information on street tree changes and can be used to report damages from catastrophic events. Analyses of...

  10. Loss of animal seed dispersal increases extinction risk in a tropical tree species due to pervasive negative density dependence across life stages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caughlin, T.T.; Ferguson, J.M.; Lichstein, J.W.; Zuidema, P.A.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Levey, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Overhunting in tropical forests reduces populations of vertebrate seed dispersers. If reduced seed dispersal has a negative impact on tree population viability, overhunting could lead to altered forest structure and dynamics, including decreased biodiversity. However, empirical data showing

  11. Schedule Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Warfare, Naval Sea Systems Command Acquisition Cycle Time : Defining the Problem David Tate, Institute for Defense Analyses Schedule Analytics Jennifer...research was comprised of the following high- level steps :  Identify and review primary data sources 1...research. However, detailed reviews of the OMB IT Dashboard data revealed that schedule data is highly aggregated. Program start date and program end date

  12. Modular representation and analysis of fault trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olmos, J; Wolf, L [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge (USA). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

    1978-08-01

    An analytical method to describe fault tree diagrams in terms of their modular compositions is developed. Fault tree structures are characterized by recursively relating the top tree event to all its basic component inputs through a set of equations defining each of the modulus for the fault tree. It is shown that such a modular description is an extremely valuable tool for making a quantitative analysis of fault trees. The modularization methodology has been implemented into the PL-MOD computer code, written in PL/1 language, which is capable of modularizing fault trees containing replicated components and replicated modular gates. PL-MOD in addition can handle mutually exclusive inputs and explicit higher order symmetric (k-out-of-n) gates. The step-by-step modularization of fault trees performed by PL-MOD is demonstrated and it is shown how this procedure is only made possible through an extensive use of the list processing tools available in PL/1. A number of nuclear reactor safety system fault trees were analyzed. PL-MOD performed the modularization and evaluation of the modular occurrence probabilities and Vesely-Fussell importance measures for these systems very efficiently. In particular its execution time for the modularization of a PWR High Pressure Injection System reduced fault tree was 25 times faster than that necessary to generate its equivalent minimal cut-set description using MOCUS, a code considered to be fast by present standards.

  13. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  14. City of Pittsburgh Trees

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Trees cared for and managed by the City of Pittsburgh Department of Public Works Forestry Division. Tree Benefits are calculated using the National Tree Benefit...

  15. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  16. Visual exploration of parameter influence on phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Martin; Bremm, Sebastian; Weissgraeber, Stephanie; Hamacher, Kay; Goesele, Michael; Wiemeyer, Josef; von Landesberger, Tatiana

    2014-01-01

    Evolutionary relationships between organisms are frequently derived as phylogenetic trees inferred from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). The MSA parameter space is exponentially large, so tens of thousands of potential trees can emerge for each dataset. A proposed visual-analytics approach can reveal the parameters' impact on the trees. Given input trees created with different parameter settings, it hierarchically clusters the trees according to their structural similarity. The most important clusters of similar trees are shown together with their parameters. This view offers interactive parameter exploration and automatic identification of relevant parameters. Biologists applied this approach to real data of 16S ribosomal RNA and protein sequences of ion channels. It revealed which parameters affected the tree structures. This led to a more reliable selection of the best trees.

  17. Analytical chemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jae Seong

    1993-02-15

    This book is comprised of nineteen chapters, which describes introduction of analytical chemistry, experimental error and statistics, chemistry equilibrium and solubility, gravimetric analysis with mechanism of precipitation, range and calculation of the result, volume analysis on general principle, sedimentation method on types and titration curve, acid base balance, acid base titration curve, complex and firing reaction, introduction of chemical electro analysis, acid-base titration curve, electrode and potentiometry, electrolysis and conductometry, voltammetry and polarographic spectrophotometry, atomic spectrometry, solvent extraction, chromatograph and experiments.

  18. Analytical chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jae Seong

    1993-02-01

    This book is comprised of nineteen chapters, which describes introduction of analytical chemistry, experimental error and statistics, chemistry equilibrium and solubility, gravimetric analysis with mechanism of precipitation, range and calculation of the result, volume analysis on general principle, sedimentation method on types and titration curve, acid base balance, acid base titration curve, complex and firing reaction, introduction of chemical electro analysis, acid-base titration curve, electrode and potentiometry, electrolysis and conductometry, voltammetry and polarographic spectrophotometry, atomic spectrometry, solvent extraction, chromatograph and experiments.

  19. Analytical chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1985-01-01

    The division for Analytical Chemistry continued to try and develope an accurate method for the separation of trace amounts from mixtures which, contain various other elements. Ion exchange chromatography is of special importance in this regard. New separation techniques were tried on certain trace amounts in South African standard rock materials and special ceramics. Methods were also tested for the separation of carrier-free radioisotopes from irradiated cyclotron discs

  20. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruthur, Nisa M; Joy, Susan; Dolan, James; Segal, Jodi B; Shihab, Hasan M; Singh, Sonal

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences.

  1. Advanced business analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Lev, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The book describes advanced business analytics and shows how to apply them to many different professional areas of engineering and management. Each chapter of the book is contributed by a different author and covers a different area of business analytics. The book connects the analytic principles with business practice and provides an interface between the main disciplines of engineering/technology and the organizational, administrative and planning abilities of management. It also refers to other disciplines such as economy, finance, marketing, behavioral economics and risk analysis. This book is of special interest to engineers, economists and researchers who are developing new advances in engineering management but also to practitioners working on this subject.

  2. A protocol for a systematic review to identify allergenic tree nuts and the molecules responsible for their allergenic properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javed, Bushra; Padfield, Philip; Sperrin, Matthew; Simpson, Angela; Mills, E N Clare

    2017-08-01

    Food regulations require that tree nuts and derived ingredients are included on food labels in order to help individuals with IgE-mediated allergies to avoid them. However, there is no consensus regarding which tree nut species should be included in this definition and specified on food labels. Allergen detection methods used for monitoring foods target allergen molecules, but it not clear which are the most relevant molecules to choose. A modified population-exposure-comparators-outcome (PECO) approach has been developed to systematically review the evidence regarding (1) which allergenic tree nuts should be included in food allergen labelling lists and (2) which are the clinically relevant allergens which should be used as analytical targets. A search strategy and criteria against which the evidence will be evaluated have been developed. The resulting evidence will be used to rank tree nuts with regards their ability to cause IgE-mediated allergies, and allergen molecules regarding their capacity to elicit an allergic reaction. The results of the systematic review will enable risk assessors and managers to identify tree nut species that should be included in food allergen labelling lists and ensure analytical methods for determination of allergens in foods are targeting appropriate molecules. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Multi-elemental composition and antioxidant properties of strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) honey from the coastal region of Croatia: Risk-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariba Lovaković, Blanka; Lazarus, Maja; Brčić Karačonji, Irena; Jurica, Karlo; Živković Semren, Tanja; Lušić, Dražen; Brajenović, Nataša; Pelaić, Zdenka; Pizent, Alica

    2018-01-01

    The concentration of 23 major and trace elements, total phenolic content (TPC) and 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging activity were determined in nine samples of strawberry tree honey and compared to other types of unifloral honeys. The most abundant elements in strawberry tree honey were potassium, calcium, magnesium and sodium, ranging between 1276 and 2367, 95.2-154, 14.4-74.4 and 13.4-64.3mg/kg, respectively. Strawberry tree honey had generally higher TPC (range: 0.314-0.522g GA/kg) and DPPH (1.94-4.45mM TE/kg) compared to other analysed unifloral honeys. A strong positive relationship was found between TPC and DPPH, TPC and concentration of homogentisic acid (HGA), chemical marker of strawberry tree honey, and between DPPH and HGA. Regarding daily intake of essential elements, strawberry tree honey can be considered nutritionally richer than the majority of unifloral honeys available in Croatia, while contribution to tolerable intake set for potentially toxic elements was very low, corresponding to pristine areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  4. Identification of an A2 population of Phythophthora andina attacking tree tomato in Peru indicates a risk of sexual reproduction in this pathosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Oliva Pérez, Ricardo Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Tree tomato, Solanum betaceum , is an Andean fruit crop previously shown to be attacked by Phytophthora andina in Ecuador and Colombia. Blight-like symptoms were discovered on tree tomato plants in the central highlands of Peru in 2003 and shown to be caused by P. andina. Isolates of P. andina, collected from three different plantations in Peru over a 6-year time span (2003–2008), were compared genetically with P. andina isolates from Colombia and Ecuador to test whether the pathogen populati...

  5. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  6. Categorizing ideas about trees: a tree of trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisler, Marie; Lecointre, Guillaume

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to explore whether matrices and MP trees used to produce systematic categories of organisms could be useful to produce categories of ideas in history of science. We study the history of the use of trees in systematics to represent the diversity of life from 1766 to 1991. We apply to those ideas a method inspired from coding homologous parts of organisms. We discretize conceptual parts of ideas, writings and drawings about trees contained in 41 main writings; we detect shared parts among authors and code them into a 91-characters matrix and use a tree representation to show who shares what with whom. In other words, we propose a hierarchical representation of the shared ideas about trees among authors: this produces a "tree of trees." Then, we categorize schools of tree-representations. Classical schools like "cladists" and "pheneticists" are recovered but others are not: "gradists" are separated into two blocks, one of them being called here "grade theoreticians." We propose new interesting categories like the "buffonian school," the "metaphoricians," and those using "strictly genealogical classifications." We consider that networks are not useful to represent shared ideas at the present step of the study. A cladogram is made for showing who is sharing what with whom, but also heterobathmy and homoplasy of characters. The present cladogram is not modelling processes of transmission of ideas about trees, and here it is mostly used to test for proximity of ideas of the same age and for categorization.

  7. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  8. Keeping trees as assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith

    2009-01-01

    Landscape trees have real value and contribute to making livable communities. Making the most of that value requires providing trees with the proper care and attention. As potentially large and long-lived organisms, trees benefit from commitment to regular care that respects the natural tree system. This system captures, transforms, and uses energy to survive, grow,...

  9. The individual and interactive effects of tree-tree establishment competition and fire on savanna structure and dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Calabrese, Justin; Vázquez, Federico; López, Cristóbal; San Miguel, Maxi; Grimm, Volker

    2010-01-01

    The mechanisms regulating savanna tree populations are still not well understood. Recent empirical work suggests that both tree-tree competition and fire are key factors in semi-arid to mesic savannas. However, the potential for competition to structure savannas, particularly in interaction with fire, has received little theoretical attention. We develop a minimalistic and analytically tractable stochastic cellular automaton to study the individual and combined effects of competition and fire...

  10. The dynamics of strangling among forest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Kenichi W

    2015-11-07

    Strangler trees germinate and grow on other trees, eventually enveloping and potentially even girdling their hosts. This allows them to mitigate fitness costs otherwise incurred by germinating and competing with other trees on the forest floor, as well as minimize risks associated with host tree-fall. If stranglers can themselves host other strangler trees, they may not even seem to need non-stranglers to persist. Yet despite their high fitness potential, strangler trees neither dominate the communities in which they occur nor is the strategy particularly common outside of figs (genus Ficus). Here we analyze how dynamic interactions between strangling and non-strangling trees can shape the adaptive landscape for strangling mutants and mutant trees that have lost the ability to strangle. We find a threshold which strangler germination rates must exceed for selection to favor the evolution of strangling, regardless of how effectively hemiepiphytic stranglers may subsequently replace their hosts. This condition describes the magnitude of the phenotypic displacement in the ability to germinate on other trees necessary for invasion by a mutant tree that could potentially strangle its host following establishment as an epiphyte. We show how the relative abilities of strangling and non-strangling trees to occupy empty sites can govern whether strangling is an evolutionarily stable strategy, and obtain the conditions for strangler coexistence with non-stranglers. We then elucidate when the evolution of strangling can disrupt stable coexistence between commensal epiphytic ancestors and their non-strangling host trees. This allows us to highlight parallels between the invasion fitness of strangler trees arising from commensalist ancestors, and cases where strangling can arise in concert with the evolution of hemiepiphytism among free-standing ancestors. Finally, we discuss how our results can inform the evolutionary ecology of antagonistic interactions more generally

  11. Classification and regression trees

    CERN Document Server

    Breiman, Leo; Olshen, Richard A; Stone, Charles J

    1984-01-01

    The methodology used to construct tree structured rules is the focus of this monograph. Unlike many other statistical procedures, which moved from pencil and paper to calculators, this text's use of trees was unthinkable before computers. Both the practical and theoretical sides have been developed in the authors' study of tree methods. Classification and Regression Trees reflects these two sides, covering the use of trees as a data analysis method, and in a more mathematical framework, proving some of their fundamental properties.

  12. Analytical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Helrich, Carl S

    2017-01-01

    This advanced undergraduate textbook begins with the Lagrangian formulation of Analytical Mechanics and then passes directly to the Hamiltonian formulation and the canonical equations, with constraints incorporated through Lagrange multipliers. Hamilton's Principle and the canonical equations remain the basis of the remainder of the text. Topics considered for applications include small oscillations, motion in electric and magnetic fields, and rigid body dynamics. The Hamilton-Jacobi approach is developed with special attention to the canonical transformation in order to provide a smooth and logical transition into the study of complex and chaotic systems. Finally the text has a careful treatment of relativistic mechanics and the requirement of Lorentz invariance. The text is enriched with an outline of the history of mechanics, which particularly outlines the importance of the work of Euler, Lagrange, Hamilton and Jacobi. Numerous exercises with solutions support the exceptionally clear and concise treatment...

  13. Forest Management Intensity Affects Aquatic Communities in Artificial Tree Holes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petermann, Jana S; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Lade, Peggy; Guidetti, Brenda; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Gossner, Martin M

    2016-01-01

    Forest management could potentially affect organisms in all forest habitats. However, aquatic communities in water-filled tree-holes may be especially sensitive because of small population sizes, the risk of drought and potential dispersal limitation. We set up artificial tree holes in forest stands subject to different management intensities in two regions in Germany and assessed the influence of local environmental properties (tree-hole opening type, tree diameter, water volume and water temperature) as well as regional drivers (forest management intensity, tree-hole density) on tree-hole insect communities (not considering other organisms such as nematodes or rotifers), detritus content, oxygen and nutrient concentrations. In addition, we compared data from artificial tree holes with data from natural tree holes in the same area to evaluate the methodological approach of using tree-hole analogues. We found that forest management had strong effects on communities in artificial tree holes in both regions and across the season. Abundance and species richness declined, community composition shifted and detritus content declined with increasing forest management intensity. Environmental variables, such as tree-hole density and tree diameter partly explained these changes. However, dispersal limitation, indicated by effects of tree-hole density, generally showed rather weak impacts on communities. Artificial tree holes had higher water temperatures (on average 2°C higher) and oxygen concentrations (on average 25% higher) than natural tree holes. The abundance of organisms was higher but species richness was lower in artificial tree holes. Community composition differed between artificial and natural tree holes. Negative management effects were detectable in both tree-hole systems, despite their abiotic and biotic differences. Our results indicate that forest management has substantial and pervasive effects on tree-hole communities and may alter their structure and

  14. Integrated fault tree development environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.

    1986-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are utilized in the nuclear industry to perform safety analyses of complex defense-in-depth systems. A major effort in PRA development is fault tree construction. The Integrated Fault Tree Environment (IFTREE) is an interactive, graphics-based tool for fault tree design. IFTREE provides integrated building, editing, and analysis features on a personal workstation. The design philosophy of IFTREE is presented, and the interface is described. IFTREE utilizes a unique rule-based solution algorithm founded in artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The impact of the AI approach on the program design is stressed. IFTREE has been developed to handle the design and maintenance of full-size living PRAs and is currently in use

  15. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-01-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

  16. New perspectives on the ecology of tree structure and tree communities through terrestrial laser scanning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Jackson, Tobias; Patrick Bentley, Lisa; Lau, Alvaro; Shenkin, Alexander; Herold, Martin; Calders, Kim; Bartholomeus, Harm; Disney, Mathias I

    2018-04-06

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) opens up the possibility of describing the three-dimensional structures of trees in natural environments with unprecedented detail and accuracy. It is already being extensively applied to describe how ecosystem biomass and structure vary between sites, but can also facilitate major advances in developing and testing mechanistic theories of tree form and forest structure, thereby enabling us to understand why trees and forests have the biomass and three-dimensional structure they do. Here we focus on the ecological challenges and benefits of understanding tree form, and highlight some advances related to capturing and describing tree shape that are becoming possible with the advent of TLS. We present examples of ongoing work that applies, or could potentially apply, new TLS measurements to better understand the constraints on optimization of tree form. Theories of resource distribution networks, such as metabolic scaling theory, can be tested and further refined. TLS can also provide new approaches to the scaling of woody surface area and crown area, and thereby better quantify the metabolism of trees. Finally, we demonstrate how we can develop a more mechanistic understanding of the effects of avoidance of wind risk on tree form and maximum size. Over the next few years, TLS promises to deliver both major empirical and conceptual advances in the quantitative understanding of trees and tree-dominated ecosystems, leading to advances in understanding the ecology of why trees and ecosystems look and grow the way they do.

  17. Fault tree handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasl, D.F.; Roberts, N.H.; Vesely, W.E.; Goldberg, F.F.

    1981-01-01

    This handbook describes a methodology for reliability analysis of complex systems such as those which comprise the engineered safety features of nuclear power generating stations. After an initial overview of the available system analysis approaches, the handbook focuses on a description of the deductive method known as fault tree analysis. The following aspects of fault tree analysis are covered: basic concepts for fault tree analysis; basic elements of a fault tree; fault tree construction; probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra for the fault tree analyst; qualitative and quantitative fault tree evaluation techniques; and computer codes for fault tree evaluation. Also discussed are several example problems illustrating the basic concepts of fault tree construction and evaluation

  18. There's Life in Hazard Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary Torsello; Toni McLellan

    The goals of hazard tree management programs are to maximize public safety and maintain a healthy sustainable tree resource. Although hazard tree management frequently targets removal of trees or parts of trees that attract wildlife, it can take into account a diversity of tree values. With just a little extra planning, hazard tree management can be highly beneficial...

  19. The contribution of Raman spectroscopy to the analytical quality control of cytotoxic drugs in a hospital environment: eliminating the exposure risks for staff members and their work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourget, Philippe; Amin, Alexandre; Vidal, Fabrice; Merlette, Christophe; Troude, Pénélope; Baillet-Guffroy, Arlette

    2014-08-15

    The purpose of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the technical performance, respective costs and environmental effect of two invasive analytical methods (HPLC and UV/visible-FTIR) as compared to a new non-invasive analytical technique (Raman spectroscopy). Three pharmacotherapeutic models were used to compare the analytical performances of the three analytical techniques. Statistical inter-method correlation analysis was performed using non-parametric correlation rank tests. The study's economic component combined calculations relative to the depreciation of the equipment and the estimated cost of an AQC unit of work. In any case, analytical validation parameters of the three techniques were satisfactory, and strong correlations between the two spectroscopic techniques vs. HPLC were found. In addition, Raman spectroscopy was found to be superior as compared to the other techniques for numerous key criteria including a complete safety for operators and their occupational environment, a non-invasive procedure, no need for consumables, and a low operating cost. Finally, Raman spectroscopy appears superior for technical, economic and environmental objectives, as compared with the other invasive analytical methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Covering tree with stars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumbach, Jan; Guo, Jiong; Ibragimov, Rashid

    2015-01-01

    We study the tree edit distance problem with edge deletions and edge insertions as edit operations. We reformulate a special case of this problem as Covering Tree with Stars (CTS): given a tree T and a set of stars, can we connect the stars in by adding edges between them such that the resulting...... tree is isomorphic to T? We prove that in the general setting, CST is NP-complete, which implies that the tree edit distance considered here is also NP-hard, even when both input trees having diameters bounded by 10. We also show that, when the number of distinct stars is bounded by a constant k, CTS...

  1. Trees and highway safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    To minimize the severity of run-off-road collisions of vehicles with trees, departments of transportation (DOTs) : commonly establish clear zones for trees and other fixed objects. Caltrans clear zone on freeways is 30 feet : minimum (40 feet pref...

  2. Decision-Tree Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buntine, Wray

    1994-01-01

    IND computer program introduces Bayesian and Markov/maximum-likelihood (MML) methods and more-sophisticated methods of searching in growing trees. Produces more-accurate class-probability estimates important in applications like diagnosis. Provides range of features and styles with convenience for casual user, fine-tuning for advanced user or for those interested in research. Consists of four basic kinds of routines: data-manipulation, tree-generation, tree-testing, and tree-display. Written in C language.

  3. Minnesota's Forest Trees. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, William R.; Fuller, Bruce L.

    This bulletin describes 46 of the more common trees found in Minnesota's forests and windbreaks. The bulletin contains two tree keys, a summer key and a winter key, to help the reader identify these trees. Besides the two keys, the bulletin includes an introduction, instructions for key use, illustrations of leaf characteristics and twig…

  4. D2-tree

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Sioutas, Spyros; Pantazos, Kostas

    2015-01-01

    We present a new overlay, called the Deterministic Decentralized tree (D2-tree). The D2-tree compares favorably to other overlays for the following reasons: (a) it provides matching and better complexities, which are deterministic for the supported operations; (b) the management of nodes (peers...

  5. Covering tree with stars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumbach, Jan; Guo, Jian-Ying; Ibragimov, Rashid

    2013-01-01

    We study the tree edit distance problem with edge deletions and edge insertions as edit operations. We reformulate a special case of this problem as Covering Tree with Stars (CTS): given a tree T and a set of stars, can we connect the stars in by adding edges between them such that the resulting ...

  6. Winter Birch Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Debra; Rounds, Judy

    2011-01-01

    Trees are great inspiration for artists. Many art teachers find themselves inspired and maybe somewhat obsessed with the natural beauty and elegance of the lofty tree, and how it changes through the seasons. One such tree that grows in several regions and always looks magnificent, regardless of the time of year, is the birch. In this article, the…

  7. Total well dominated trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finbow, Arthur; Frendrup, Allan; Vestergaard, Preben D.

    cardinality then G is a total well dominated graph. In this paper we study composition and decomposition of total well dominated trees. By a reversible process we prove that any total well dominated tree can both be reduced to and constructed from a family of three small trees....

  8. Chip and truck: Comparing the cost of using trees to heat buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin Silverstein; Dan Loeffler; J. Greg Jones; Dave Calkin; Hans Zuuring; Martin. Twer

    2009-01-01

    In the Western United States, many of the forests have too many small trees (figure 1). These small trees increase the risk of wildfire. Forest managers, therefore, want to remove the small trees. Some scientists believe these small trees may be a good source of fuel. To explore this possibility, a program called "Fuels for Schools" was created in...

  9. TreePics: visualizing trees with pictures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Puillandre

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available While many programs are available to edit phylogenetic trees, associating pictures with branch tips in an efficient and automatic way is not an available option. Here, we present TreePics, a standalone software that uses a web browser to visualize phylogenetic trees in Newick format and that associates pictures (typically, pictures of the voucher specimens to the tip of each branch. Pictures are visualized as thumbnails and can be enlarged by a mouse rollover. Further, several pictures can be selected and displayed in a separate window for visual comparison. TreePics works either online or in a full standalone version, where it can display trees with several thousands of pictures (depending on the memory available. We argue that TreePics can be particularly useful in a preliminary stage of research, such as to quickly detect conflicts between a DNA-based phylogenetic tree and morphological variation, that may be due to contamination that needs to be removed prior to final analyses, or the presence of species complexes.

  10. Autumn frost hardiness in Norway spruce plus tree progeny and trees of the local and transferred provenances in central Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannerz, Mats; Westin, Johan

    2005-09-01

    Reforestation with provenances from locations remote from the planting site (transferred provenances) or the progeny of trees of local provenances selected for superior form and vigor (plus trees) offer alternative means to increase yield over that obtained by the use of seed from unselected trees of the local provenance. Under Swedish conditions, Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) of certain transferred provenances generally has an advantage in productivity relative to the local provenance comparable to that of progeny of plus trees. The aim of this study was to explore the extent to which productivity gains achieved by provenance transfer or the use of plus tree progeny are associated with reductions in autumn frost hardiness, relative to that of trees of the local provenance. In a field trial with 19-year-old trees in central Sweden, bud hardiness was tested on four occasions during the autumn of 2002. Trees of the local provenance were compared with trees of a south Swedish provenance originating 3 degrees of latitude to the south, a Belarusian provenance and the progeny of plus trees of local origin. The Belarusian provenance was the least hardy and the local provenance the most hardy, with plus tree progeny and the south Swedish provenance being intermediate in hardiness. Both the Belarusian provenance and the plus tree progeny were significantly taller than trees of the other populations. Within provenances, tree height was negatively correlated with autumn frost hardiness. Among the plus tree progeny, however, no such correlation between tree height and autumn frost hardiness was found. It is concluded that although the gain in productivity achieved by provenance transfer from Belarus was comparable to that achieved by using the progeny of plus trees of the local provenance, the use of trees of the Belarus provenance involved an increased risk of autumn frost damage because of later hardening.

  11. A review of pruning fruit trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L.; Koc, A. B.; Wang, X. N.; Jiang, Y. X.

    2018-05-01

    The focus of this review is to present the results of studies and articles about ways to prune fruit trees. Pruning should be done in late winter or early spring so that the infection risk can be significantly decreased. This review will also offer an overview of methods to prevent infections and speed up recovery on the trees. The following is an interpretation of why high-power ultrasonic assisted pruning in the fruits trees is needed and will elaborate on the efficiency, labor costs, and safety, as well as space, location, and some environmental issues.

  12. Spectra of chemical trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balasubramanian, K.

    1982-01-01

    A method is developed for obtaining the spectra of trees of NMR and chemical interests. The characteristic polynomials of branched trees can be obtained in terms of the characteristic polynomials of unbranched trees and branches by pruning the tree at the joints. The unbranched trees can also be broken down further until a tree containing just two vertices is obtained. The effectively reduces the order of the secular determinant of the tree used at the beginning to determinants of orders atmost equal to the number of vertices in the branch containing the largest number of vertices. An illustrative example of a NMR graph is given for which the 22 x 22 secular determinant is reduced to determinants of orders atmost 4 x 4 in just the second step of the algorithm. The tree pruning algorithm can be applied even to trees with no symmetry elements and such a factoring can be achieved. Methods developed here can be elegantly used to find if two trees are cospectral and to construct cospectral trees

  13. Refining discordant gene trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Górecki, Pawel; Eulenstein, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Evolutionary studies are complicated by discordance between gene trees and the species tree in which they evolved. Dealing with discordant trees often relies on comparison costs between gene and species trees, including the well-established Robinson-Foulds, gene duplication, and deep coalescence costs. While these costs have provided credible results for binary rooted gene trees, corresponding cost definitions for non-binary unrooted gene trees, which are frequently occurring in practice, are challenged by biological realism. We propose a natural extension of the well-established costs for comparing unrooted and non-binary gene trees with rooted binary species trees using a binary refinement model. For the duplication cost we describe an efficient algorithm that is based on a linear time reduction and also computes an optimal rooted binary refinement of the given gene tree. Finally, we show that similar reductions lead to solutions for computing the deep coalescence and the Robinson-Foulds costs. Our binary refinement of Robinson-Foulds, gene duplication, and deep coalescence costs for unrooted and non-binary gene trees together with the linear time reductions provided here for computing these costs significantly extends the range of trees that can be incorporated into approaches dealing with discordance.

  14. Simple Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus via Decision Tree Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrab Sayadi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM is one of the most important risk factors in cardiovascular disorders considered as a common clinical and public health problem. Early diagnosis can reduce the burden of the disease. Decision tree, as an advanced data mining method, can be used as a reliable tool to predict T2DM. Objectives: This study aimed to present a simple model for predicting T2DM using decision tree modeling. Materials and Methods: This analytical model-based study used a part of the cohort data obtained from a database in Healthy Heart House of Shiraz, Iran. The data included routine information, such as age, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI, family history of diabetes, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which were obtained from the individuals referred for gathering baseline data in Shiraz cohort study from 2014 to 2015. Diabetes diagnosis was used as binary datum. Decision tree technique and J48 algorithm were applied using the WEKA software (version 3.7.5, New Zealand. Additionally, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC curve and Area Under Curve (AUC were used for checking the goodness of fit. Results: The age of the 11302 cases obtained after data preparation ranged from 18 to 89 years with the mean age of 48.1 ± 11.4 years. Additionally, 51.1% of the cases were male. In the tree structure, blood pressure and age were placed where most information was gained. In our model, however, gender was not important and was placed on the final branch of the tree. Total precision and AUC were 87% and 89%, respectively. This indicated that the model had good accuracy for distinguishing patients from normal individuals. Conclusions: The results showed that T2DM could be predicted via decision tree model without laboratory tests. Thus, this model can be used in pre-clinical and public health screening programs.

  15. TreePlus: interactive exploration of networks with enhanced tree layouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bongshin; Parr, Cynthia S; Plaisant, Catherine; Bederson, Benjamin B; Veksler, Vladislav D; Gray, Wayne D; Kotfila, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    Despite extensive research, it is still difficult to produce effective interactive layouts for large graphs. Dense layout and occlusion make food webs, ontologies, and social networks difficult to understand and interact with. We propose a new interactive Visual Analytics component called TreePlus that is based on a tree-style layout. TreePlus reveals the missing graph structure with visualization and interaction while maintaining good readability. To support exploration of the local structure of the graph and gathering of information from the extensive reading of labels, we use a guiding metaphor of "Plant a seed and watch it grow." It allows users to start with a node and expand the graph as needed, which complements the classic overview techniques that can be effective at (but often limited to) revealing clusters. We describe our design goals, describe the interface, and report on a controlled user study with 28 participants comparing TreePlus with a traditional graph interface for six tasks. In general, the advantage of TreePlus over the traditional interface increased as the density of the displayed data increased. Participants also reported higher levels of confidence in their answers with TreePlus and most of them preferred TreePlus.

  16. Risk based requirements for long term stewardship: A proof-of-principle analysis of an analytic method tested on selected Hanford locations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarvis, T.T.; Andrews, W.B.; Buck, J.W.

    1998-03-01

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production, research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate [DOE, 1995a], the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little information about post-cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about future site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous

  17. Risk Based Requirements for Long Term Stewardship: A Proof-of-Principle Analysis of an Analytic Method Tested on Selected Hanford Locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GM Gelston; JW Buck; LR Huesties; MS Peffers; TB Miley; TT Jarvis; WB Andrews

    1998-12-03

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate DOE, 1995a, the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little irdiormation about post- cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about fiture site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous.

  18. The valuative tree

    CERN Document Server

    Favre, Charles

    2004-01-01

    This volume is devoted to a beautiful object, called the valuative tree and designed as a powerful tool for the study of singularities in two complex dimensions. Its intricate yet manageable structure can be analyzed by both algebraic and geometric means. Many types of singularities, including those of curves, ideals, and plurisubharmonic functions, can be encoded in terms of positive measures on the valuative tree. The construction of these measures uses a natural tree Laplace operator of independent interest.

  19. An overview of decision tree applied to power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Leo; Rather, Zakir Hussain; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    The corrosive volume of available data in electric power systems motivate the adoption of data mining techniques in the emerging field of power system data analytics. The mainstream of data mining algorithm applied to power system, Decision Tree (DT), also named as Classification And Regression...... Tree (CART), has gained increasing interests because of its high performance in terms of computational efficiency, uncertainty manageability, and interpretability. This paper presents an overview of a variety of DT applications to power systems for better interfacing of power systems with data...... analytics. The fundamental knowledge of CART algorithm is also introduced which is then followed by examples of both classification tree and regression tree with the help of case study for security assessment of Danish power system....

  20. Coded Splitting Tree Protocols

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jesper Hemming; Stefanovic, Cedomir; Popovski, Petar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to multiple access control called coded splitting tree protocol. The approach builds on the known tree splitting protocols, code structure and successive interference cancellation (SIC). Several instances of the tree splitting protocol are initiated, each...... instance is terminated prematurely and subsequently iterated. The combined set of leaves from all the tree instances can then be viewed as a graph code, which is decodable using belief propagation. The main design problem is determining the order of splitting, which enables successful decoding as early...

  1. Morocco - Fruit Tree Productivity

    Data.gov (United States)

    Millennium Challenge Corporation — Date Tree Irrigation Project: The specific objectives of this evaluation are threefold: - Performance evaluation of project activities, like the mid-term evaluation,...

  2. A decision tree-based combination of ezrin-interacting proteins to estimate the prognostic risk of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jian-Zhong; Wu, Zhi-Yong; Wang, Shao-Hong; Ji, Xia; Yang, Cui-Xia; Xu, Xiu-E; Liao, Lian-Di; Wu, Jian-Yi; Li, En-Min; Zhang, Kai; Xu, Li-Yan

    2017-08-01

    Our previous studies have highlighted the importance of ezrin in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Here our objective was to explore the clinical significance of ezrin-interacting proteins, which would provide a theoretical basis for understanding the function of ezrin and potential therapeutic targets for ESCC. We used affinity purification and mass spectrometry to identify PDIA3, CNPY2, and STMN1 as potential ezrin-interacting proteins. Confocal microscopy and coimmunoprecipitation analysis further confirmed the colocalization and interaction of ezrin with PDIA3, CNPY2, and STMN1. Tissue microarray data of ESCC samples (n=263) showed that the 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were significantly lower for the CNPY2 (OS, P=.003; DFS, P=.011) and STMN1 (OS, P=.010; DFS, P=.002) high-expression groups compared with the low-expression groups. By contrast, overexpression of PDIA3 was significantly correlated with favorable survival (OS, P<.001; DFS, P=.001). Cox regression demonstrated the prognostic value of PDIA3, CNPY2, and STMN1 in ESCC. Furthermore, decision tree analysis revealed that the resulting classifier of both ezrin and its interacting proteins could be used to better predict OS and DFS of patients with ESCC. In conclusion, a signature of ezrin-interacting proteins accurately predicts ESCC patient survival or tumor recurrence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

    2016-02-01

    Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. All rights reserved and www.bioline.org.br/ja Assessment of Tree ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF HORSFALL

    recent times, thereby posing appreciable risk of local extinction to some ... Fig 1: Map showing study area; fresh and mangrove swamp of. University of Lagos .... African oil palm. 43. 10. 29. ... Brazilian rose tree, blue trumpet tree. 52. 13. 41.

  5. A Framework For Analyzing And Mitigating The Vulnerabilities Of Complex Systems Via Attack And Protection Trees

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Edge, Kenneth S

    2007-01-01

    .... Attack trees by themselves do not provide enough decision support to system defenders. This research develops the concept of using protection trees to offer a detailed risk analysis of a system...

  6. A Method to Quantify Plant Availability and Initiating Event Frequency Using a Large Event Tree, Small Fault Tree Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kee, Ernest J.; Sun, Alice; Rodgers, Shawn; Popova, ElmiraV; Nelson, Paul; Moiseytseva, Vera; Wang, Eric

    2006-01-01

    South Texas Project uses a large fault tree to produce scenarios (minimal cut sets) used in quantification of plant availability and event frequency predictions. On the other hand, the South Texas Project probabilistic risk assessment model uses a large event tree, small fault tree for quantifying core damage and radioactive release frequency predictions. The South Texas Project is converting its availability and event frequency model to use a large event tree, small fault in an effort to streamline application support and to provide additional detail in results. The availability and event frequency model as well as the applications it supports (maintenance and operational risk management, system engineering health assessment, preventive maintenance optimization, and RIAM) are briefly described. A methodology to perform availability modeling in a large event tree, small fault tree framework is described in detail. How the methodology can be used to support South Texas Project maintenance and operations risk management is described in detail. Differences with other fault tree methods and other recently proposed methods are discussed in detail. While the methods described are novel to the South Texas Project Risk Management program and to large event tree, small fault tree models, concepts in the area of application support and availability modeling have wider applicability to the industry. (authors)

  7. Are trees long-lived?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith

    2009-01-01

    Trees and tree care can capture the best of people's motivations and intentions. Trees are living memorials that help communities heal at sites of national tragedy, such as Oklahoma City and the World Trade Center. We mark the places of important historical events by the trees that grew nearby even if the original tree, such as the Charter Oak in Connecticut or...

  8. Let's Talk... Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblinger, Diana G.

    2012-01-01

    Talk about analytics seems to be everywhere. Everyone is talking about analytics. Yet even with all the talk, many in higher education have questions about--and objections to--using analytics in colleges and universities. In this article, the author explores the use of analytics in, and all around, higher education. (Contains 1 note.)

  9. Analytics for Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNeill, Sheila; Campbell, Lorna M.; Hawksey, Martin

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the development and use of analytics in the context of education. Using Buckingham Shum's three levels of analytics, the authors present a critical analysis of current developments in the domain of learning analytics, and contrast the potential value of analytics research and development with real world…

  10. Analytical chemistry instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laing, W.R.

    1986-01-01

    In nine sections, 48 chapters cover 1) analytical chemistry and the environment 2) environmental radiochemistry 3) automated instrumentation 4) advances in analytical mass spectrometry 5) fourier transform spectroscopy 6) analytical chemistry of plutonium 7) nuclear analytical chemistry 8) chemometrics and 9) nuclear fuel technology

  11. Web-based system for assessing risk factors for falls in community-dwelling elderly people using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    OpenAIRE

    Pecchia, Leandro; Bath, Peter A.; Pendleton, Neil; Bracale, Marcello

    2010-01-01

    Falls occur frequently among older people and represent the most common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life. Preventing falls is an important way to reduce injuries, hospitalizations, and injury-related morbidity and mortality among older people. The research literature has identified hundreds of risk factors for falls among elderly people. Prioritizing risk factors for falls is useful for designing effective and efficacious prevention programs.\\ud The aim of this st...

  12. The tree BVOC index

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.R. Simpson; E.G. McPherson

    2011-01-01

    Urban trees can produce a number of benefits, among them improved air quality. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted by some species are ozone precursors. Modifying future tree planting to favor lower-emitting species can reduce these emissions and aid air management districts in meeting federally mandated emissions reductions for these compounds. Changes...

  13. Tree growth visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. Linsen; B.J. Karis; E.G. McPherson; B. Hamann

    2005-01-01

    In computer graphics, models describing the fractal branching structure of trees typically exploit the modularity of tree structures. The models are based on local production rules, which are applied iteratively and simultaneously to create a complex branching system. The objective is to generate three-dimensional scenes of often many realistic- looking and non-...

  14. Flowering T Flowering Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adansonia digitata L. ( The Baobab Tree) of Bombacaceae is a tree with swollen trunk that attains a dia. of 10m. Leaves are digitately compound with leaflets up to 18cm. long. Flowers are large, solitary, waxy white, and open at dusk. They open in 30 seconds and are bat pollinated. Stamens are many. Fruit is about 30 cm ...

  15. Fault tree graphics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bass, L.; Wynholds, H.W.; Porterfield, W.R.

    1975-01-01

    Described is an operational system that enables the user, through an intelligent graphics terminal, to construct, modify, analyze, and store fault trees. With this system, complex engineering designs can be analyzed. This paper discusses the system and its capabilities. Included is a brief discussion of fault tree analysis, which represents an aspect of reliability and safety modeling

  16. Tree biology and dendrochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith; Walter C. Shortle

    1996-01-01

    Dendrochemistry, the interpretation of elemental analysis of dated tree rings, can provide a temporal record of environmental change. Using the dendrochemical record requires an understanding of tree biology. In this review, we pose four questions concerning assumptions that underlie recent dendrochemical research: 1) Does the chemical composition of the wood directly...

  17. Individual tree control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey A. Holt

    1989-01-01

    Controlling individual unwanted trees in forest stands is a readily accepted method for improving the value of future harvests. The practice is especially important in mixed hardwood forests where species differ considerably in value and within species individual trees differ in quality. Individual stem control is a mechanical or chemical weeding operation that...

  18. Structural Equation Model Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2013-01-01

    In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

  19. Matching Subsequences in Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li

    2009-01-01

    Given two rooted, labeled trees P and T the tree path subsequence problem is to determine which paths in P are subsequences of which paths in T. Here a path begins at the root and ends at a leaf. In this paper we propose this problem as a useful query primitive for XML data, and provide new...

  20. The future of large old trees in urban landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Roux, Darren S; Ikin, Karen; Lindenmayer, David B; Manning, Adrian D; Gibbons, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Large old trees are disproportionate providers of structural elements (e.g. hollows, coarse woody debris), which are crucial habitat resources for many species. The decline of large old trees in modified landscapes is of global conservation concern. Once large old trees are removed, they are difficult to replace in the short term due to typically prolonged time periods needed for trees to mature (i.e. centuries). Few studies have investigated the decline of large old trees in urban landscapes. Using a simulation model, we predicted the future availability of native hollow-bearing trees (a surrogate for large old trees) in an expanding city in southeastern Australia. In urban greenspace, we predicted that the number of hollow-bearing trees is likely to decline by 87% over 300 years under existing management practices. Under a worst case scenario, hollow-bearing trees may be completely lost within 115 years. Conversely, we predicted that the number of hollow-bearing trees will likely remain stable in semi-natural nature reserves. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of hollow-bearing trees perpetuated in urban greenspace over the long term is most sensitive to the: (1) maximum standing life of trees; (2) number of regenerating seedlings ha(-1); and (3) rate of hollow formation. We tested the efficacy of alternative urban management strategies and found that the only way to arrest the decline of large old trees requires a collective management strategy that ensures: (1) trees remain standing for at least 40% longer than currently tolerated lifespans; (2) the number of seedlings established is increased by at least 60%; and (3) the formation of habitat structures provided by large old trees is accelerated by at least 30% (e.g. artificial structures) to compensate for short term deficits in habitat resources. Immediate implementation of these recommendations is needed to avert long term risk to urban biodiversity.

  1. Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

    2016-01-01

    Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted.

  2. Environmental tritium in trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, R.M.

    1979-01-01

    The distribution of environmental tritium in the free water and organically bound hydrogen of trees growing in the vicinity of the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories (CRNL) has been studied. The regional dispersal of HTO in the atmosphere has been observed by surveying the tritium content of leaf moisture. Measurement of the distribution of organically bound tritium in the wood of tree ring sequences has given information on past concentrations of HTO taken up by trees growing in the CRNL Liquid Waste Disposal Area. For samples at background environmental levels, cellulose separation and analysis was done. The pattern of bomb tritium in precipitation of 1955-68 was observed to be preserved in the organically bound tritium of a tree ring sequence. Reactor tritium was discernible in a tree growing at a distance of 10 km from CRNL. These techniques provide convenient means of monitoring dispersal of HTO from nuclear facilities. (author)

  3. Utilization of fault tree analysis techniques in fire protection work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crass, E.R.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a fault tree model for a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the subsequent use of this model to perform a safe shutdown analysis and determine conformance with Section IIIG of 10 CFR 50, Appendix R. The paper describes the rationale for choosing this analytical tool, the development of the fault tree model, the analysis of the model using the PREP code, disposition of the results, and finally, application of the results to determine the need for plant modifications. It concludes with a review of the strengths and weaknesses of the use of Fault Tree Methodology for this application

  4. Future analytical provision - Relocation of Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, B.

    2015-01-01

    Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services provide an essential view on the environmental, safety, process and high hazard risk reduction performances by analysis of samples. It is the largest and most complex analytical services laboratory in Europe, with 150 laboratories (55 operational) and 350 staff (including 180 analysts). Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services Main Laboratory is in need of replacement. This is due to the age of the facility and changes to work streams. This relocation is an opportunity to -) design and commission bespoke MA (Medium-Active) cells, -) modify HA (High-Active) cell design to facilitate an in-cell laboratory, -) develop non-destructive techniques, -) open light building for better worker morale. The option chosen was to move the activities to the NNL Central laboratory (NNLCL) that is based at Sellafield and is the UK's flagship nuclear research and development facility. This poster gives a time schedule

  5. Generalising tree traversals and tree transformations to DAGs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahr, Patrick; Axelsson, Emil

    2017-01-01

    We present a recursion scheme based on attribute grammars that can be transparently applied to trees and acyclic graphs. Our recursion scheme allows the programmer to implement a tree traversal or a tree transformation and then apply it to compact graph representations of trees instead. The resul......We present a recursion scheme based on attribute grammars that can be transparently applied to trees and acyclic graphs. Our recursion scheme allows the programmer to implement a tree traversal or a tree transformation and then apply it to compact graph representations of trees instead...... as the complementing theory with a number of examples....

  6. Fungal diseases of tree stands under urbanized conditions of Moscow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnova Oksana G.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Phytosanitary and ecological estimation of tree-stands has been con­ducted at the Forest Experimental Station of Moscow Agricultural Academy and parks of Northeast of Moscow in 2007-2011. Fomes fomentarius was proved to be a very serious pathogen of trees under conditions of Moscow, Piptoporus betulinus, Phellinus igniarius, and Fomitopsis pinicola also occurred and caused damage to trees. This rather bad phytosanitary situation depends on alarming ecological situation in Moscow. At the Forest Experimental Station of Moscow Agricultural Academy a number and cover of lichens decreased. In general, all trees in Moscow are in dynamic equilibrium with the urbanized environment. In connection with this, the following classification of tree-stands was proposed for the urbanized environment: 1 - healthy trees, 2 - affected trees which can be managed, 3 - dry woods, 3a - very diseased. Many tree-stands in investigated regions of Moscow are found to belong to the groups 2 and 3c. All tree-stands must be carefully monitored and managed in order to provide a well-timed decision on the support system for preservation of trees as ‘lungs of city’ and avoid unpredictable tree falling which put people and traffic at risk.

  7. The Application of Classification and Regression Trees for the Triage of Women for Referral to Colposcopy and the Estimation of Risk for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia: A Study Based on 1625 Cases with Incomplete Data from Molecular Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abraham Pouliakis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Nowadays numerous ancillary techniques detecting HPV DNA and mRNA compete with cytology; however no perfect test exists; in this study we evaluated classification and regression trees (CARTs for the production of triage rules and estimate the risk for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN in cases with ASCUS+ in cytology. Study Design. We used 1625 cases. In contrast to other approaches we used missing data to increase the data volume, obtain more accurate results, and simulate real conditions in the everyday practice of gynecologic clinics and laboratories. The proposed CART was based on the cytological result, HPV DNA typing, HPV mRNA detection based on NASBA and flow cytometry, p16 immunocytochemical expression, and finally age and parous status. Results. Algorithms useful for the triage of women were produced; gynecologists could apply these in conjunction with available examination results and conclude to an estimation of the risk for a woman to harbor CIN expressed as a probability. Conclusions. The most important test was the cytological examination; however the CART handled cases with inadequate cytological outcome and increased the diagnostic accuracy by exploiting the results of ancillary techniques even if there were inadequate missing data. The CART performance was better than any other single test involved in this study.

  8. The Application of Classification and Regression Trees for the Triage of Women for Referral to Colposcopy and the Estimation of Risk for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia: A Study Based on 1625 Cases with Incomplete Data from Molecular Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouliakis, Abraham; Karakitsou, Efrossyni; Chrelias, Charalampos; Pappas, Asimakis; Panayiotides, Ioannis; Valasoulis, George; Kyrgiou, Maria; Paraskevaidis, Evangelos; Karakitsos, Petros

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays numerous ancillary techniques detecting HPV DNA and mRNA compete with cytology; however no perfect test exists; in this study we evaluated classification and regression trees (CARTs) for the production of triage rules and estimate the risk for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in cases with ASCUS+ in cytology. We used 1625 cases. In contrast to other approaches we used missing data to increase the data volume, obtain more accurate results, and simulate real conditions in the everyday practice of gynecologic clinics and laboratories. The proposed CART was based on the cytological result, HPV DNA typing, HPV mRNA detection based on NASBA and flow cytometry, p16 immunocytochemical expression, and finally age and parous status. Algorithms useful for the triage of women were produced; gynecologists could apply these in conjunction with available examination results and conclude to an estimation of the risk for a woman to harbor CIN expressed as a probability. The most important test was the cytological examination; however the CART handled cases with inadequate cytological outcome and increased the diagnostic accuracy by exploiting the results of ancillary techniques even if there were inadequate missing data. The CART performance was better than any other single test involved in this study.

  9. A recursive algorithm for trees and forests

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Song; Guo, Victor J. W.

    2017-01-01

    Trees or rooted trees have been generously studied in the literature. A forest is a set of trees or rooted trees. Here we give recurrence relations between the number of some kind of rooted forest with $k$ roots and that with $k+1$ roots on $\\{1,2,\\ldots,n\\}$. Classical formulas for counting various trees such as rooted trees, bipartite trees, tripartite trees, plane trees, $k$-ary plane trees, $k$-edge colored trees follow immediately from our recursive relations.

  10. Phylogenetic trees in bioinformatics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burr, Tom L [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    Genetic data is often used to infer evolutionary relationships among a collection of viruses, bacteria, animal or plant species, or other operational taxonomic units (OTU). A phylogenetic tree depicts such relationships and provides a visual representation of the estimated branching order of the OTUs. Tree estimation is unique for several reasons, including: the types of data used to represent each OTU; the use ofprobabilistic nucleotide substitution models; the inference goals involving both tree topology and branch length, and the huge number of possible trees for a given sample of a very modest number of OTUs, which implies that fmding the best tree(s) to describe the genetic data for each OTU is computationally demanding. Bioinformatics is too large a field to review here. We focus on that aspect of bioinformatics that includes study of similarities in genetic data from multiple OTUs. Although research questions are diverse, a common underlying challenge is to estimate the evolutionary history of the OTUs. Therefore, this paper reviews the role of phylogenetic tree estimation in bioinformatics, available methods and software, and identifies areas for additional research and development.

  11. Skewed Binary Search Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Moruz, Gabriel

    2006-01-01

    It is well-known that to minimize the number of comparisons a binary search tree should be perfectly balanced. Previous work has shown that a dominating factor over the running time for a search is the number of cache faults performed, and that an appropriate memory layout of a binary search tree...... can reduce the number of cache faults by several hundred percent. Motivated by the fact that during a search branching to the left or right at a node does not necessarily have the same cost, e.g. because of branch prediction schemes, we in this paper study the class of skewed binary search trees....... For all nodes in a skewed binary search tree the ratio between the size of the left subtree and the size of the tree is a fixed constant (a ratio of 1/2 gives perfect balanced trees). In this paper we present an experimental study of various memory layouts of static skewed binary search trees, where each...

  12. The gravity apple tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldama, Mariana Espinosa

    2015-01-01

    The gravity apple tree is a genealogical tree of the gravitation theories developed during the past century. The graphic representation is full of information such as guides in heuristic principles, names of main proponents, dates and references for original articles (See under Supplementary Data for the graphic representation). This visual presentation and its particular classification allows a quick synthetic view for a plurality of theories, many of them well validated in the Solar System domain. Its diachronic structure organizes information in a shape of a tree following similarities through a formal concept analysis. It can be used for educational purposes or as a tool for philosophical discussion. (paper)

  13. Visualizing phylogenetic tree landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilgenbusch, James C; Huang, Wen; Gallivan, Kyle A

    2017-02-02

    Genomic-scale sequence alignments are increasingly used to infer phylogenies in order to better understand the processes and patterns of evolution. Different partitions within these new alignments (e.g., genes, codon positions, and structural features) often favor hundreds if not thousands of competing phylogenies. Summarizing and comparing phylogenies obtained from multi-source data sets using current consensus tree methods discards valuable information and can disguise potential methodological problems. Discovery of efficient and accurate dimensionality reduction methods used to display at once in 2- or 3- dimensions the relationship among these competing phylogenies will help practitioners diagnose the limits of current evolutionary models and potential problems with phylogenetic reconstruction methods when analyzing large multi-source data sets. We introduce several dimensionality reduction methods to visualize in 2- and 3-dimensions the relationship among competing phylogenies obtained from gene partitions found in three mid- to large-size mitochondrial genome alignments. We test the performance of these dimensionality reduction methods by applying several goodness-of-fit measures. The intrinsic dimensionality of each data set is also estimated to determine whether projections in 2- and 3-dimensions can be expected to reveal meaningful relationships among trees from different data partitions. Several new approaches to aid in the comparison of different phylogenetic landscapes are presented. Curvilinear Components Analysis (CCA) and a stochastic gradient decent (SGD) optimization method give the best representation of the original tree-to-tree distance matrix for each of the three- mitochondrial genome alignments and greatly outperformed the method currently used to visualize tree landscapes. The CCA + SGD method converged at least as fast as previously applied methods for visualizing tree landscapes. We demonstrate for all three mtDNA alignments that 3D

  14. Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to

  15. Introducing tree interactions in wind damage simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schelhaas, M.J.; Kramer, K.; Peltola, H.; Werf, van der D.C.; Wijdeven, S.M.J.

    2007-01-01

    Wind throw is an important risk factor in forest management in North-western Europe. In recent years, mechanistic models have been developed to estimate critical wind speeds needed to break or uproot the average tree of a forest stand. Based on these models, we developed a wind damage module for the

  16. Predicted range expansion of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) in forestlands of the southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao-Hsuan Wang; William Grant; Todd Swannack; Jianbang Gan; William Rogers; Tomasz Koralewski; James Miller; John W. Taylor Jr.

    2011-01-01

    We present an integrated approach for predicting future range expansion of an invasive species (Chinese tallow tree) that incorporates statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework.

  17. Risk exposures for human ornithosis in a poultry processing plant modified by use of personal protective equipment: an analytical outbreak study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C J; Sillis, M; Fearne, V; Pezzoli, L; Beasley, G; Bracebridge, S; Reacher, M; Nair, P

    2013-09-01

    Ornithosis outbreaks in poultry processing plants are well-described, but evidence for preventive measures is currently lacking. This study describes a case-control study into an outbreak of ornithosis at a poultry processing plant in the East of England, identified following three employees being admitted to hospital. Workers at the affected plant were recruited via their employer, with exposures assessed using a self-completed questionnaire. Cases were ascertained using serological methods or direct antigen detection in sputum. 63/225 (28%) staff participated, with 10% of participants showing evidence of recent infection. Exposure to the killing/defeathering and automated evisceration areas, and contact with viscera or blood were the main risk factors for infection. Personal protective equipment (goggles and FFP3 masks) reduced the effect of exposure to risk areas and to self-contamination with potentially infectious material. Our study provides some evidence of effectiveness for respiratory protective equipment in poultry processing plants where there is a known and current risk of ornithosis. Further studies are required to confirm this tentative finding, but in the meantime respiratory protective equipment is recommended as a precautionary measure in plants where outbreaks of ornithosis occur.

  18. Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eilmann, B.; Rigling, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree

  19. Big trees, old trees, and growth factor tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith

    2018-01-01

    The potential for a tree to reach a great size and to live a long life frequently captures the public's imagination. Sometimes the desire to know the age of an impressively large tree is simple curiosity. For others, the date-of-tree establishment can make a big diff erence for management, particularly for trees at historic sites or those mentioned in property...

  20. A bijection between phylogenetic trees and plane oriented recursive trees

    OpenAIRE

    Prodinger, Helmut

    2017-01-01

    Phylogenetic trees are binary nonplanar trees with labelled leaves, and plane oriented recursive trees are planar trees with an increasing labelling. Both families are enumerated by double factorials. A bijection is constructed, using the respective representations a 2-partitions and trapezoidal words.

  1. A Suffix Tree Or Not a Suffix Tree?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starikovskaya, Tatiana; Vildhøj, Hjalte Wedel

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we study the structure of suffix trees. Given an unlabeled tree r on n nodes and suffix links of its internal nodes, we ask the question “Is r a suffix tree?”, i.e., is there a string S whose suffix tree has the same topological structure as r? We place no restrictions on S, in part...

  2. NLCD 2001 - Tree Canopy

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The National Land Cover Database 2001 tree canopy layer for Minnesota (mapping zones 39-42, 50-51) was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the...

  3. Trees for future forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lobo, Albin

    Climate change creates new challenges in forest management. The increase in temperature may in the long run be beneficial for the forests in the northern latitudes, but the high rate at which climate change is predicted to proceed will make adaptation difficult because trees are long living sessile...... organisms. The aim of the present thesis is therefore to explore genetic resilience and phenotypic plasticity mechanisms that allows trees to adapt and evolve with changing climates. The thesis focus on the abiotic factors associated with climate change, especially raised temperatures and lack...... age of these tree species and the uncertainty around the pace and effect of climate, it remains an open question if the native populations can respond fast enough. Phenotypic plasticity through epigenetic regulation of spring phenology is found to be present in a tree species which might act...

  4. Value tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keeney, R.; Renn, O.; Winterfeldt, D. von; Kotte, U.

    1985-01-01

    What are the targets and criteria on which national energy policy should be based. What priorities should be set, and how can different social interests be matched. To answer these questions, a new instrument of decision theory is presented which has been applied with good results to controversial political issues in the USA. The new technique is known under the name of value tree analysis. Members of important West German organisations (BDI, VDI, RWE, the Catholic and Protestant Church, Deutscher Naturschutzring, and ecological research institutions) were asked about the goals of their organisations. These goals were then ordered systematically and arranged in a hierarchical tree structure. The value trees of different groups can be combined into a catalogue of social criteria of acceptability and policy assessment. The authors describe the philosophy and methodology of value tree analysis and give an outline of its application in the development of a socially acceptable energy policy. (orig.) [de

  5. Multiscale singularity trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Somchaipeng, Kerawit; Sporring, Jon; Johansen, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We propose MultiScale Singularity Trees (MSSTs) as a structure to represent images, and we propose an algorithm for image comparison based on comparing MSSTs. The algorithm is tested on 3 public image databases and compared to 2 state-of-theart methods. We conclude that the computational complexity...... of our algorithm only allows for the comparison of small trees, and that the results of our method are comparable with state-of-the-art using much fewer parameters for image representation....

  6. Type extension trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2006-01-01

    We introduce type extension trees as a formal representation language for complex combinatorial features of relational data. Based on a very simple syntax this language provides a unified framework for expressing features as diverse as embedded subgraphs on the one hand, and marginal counts...... of attribute values on the other. We show by various examples how many existing relational data mining techniques can be expressed as the problem of constructing a type extension tree and a discriminant function....

  7. Analyticity without Differentiability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirillova, Evgenia; Spindler, Karlheinz

    2008-01-01

    In this article we derive all salient properties of analytic functions, including the analytic version of the inverse function theorem, using only the most elementary convergence properties of series. Not even the notion of differentiability is required to do so. Instead, analytical arguments are replaced by combinatorial arguments exhibiting…

  8. Understanding Business Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-05

    analytics have been used in organizations for a variety of reasons for quite some time; ranging from the simple (generating and understanding business analytics...process. understanding business analytics 3 How well these two components are orchestrated will determine the level of success an organization has in

  9. Effective 1.0: An Analytic Effective Action Analysis Library

    OpenAIRE

    Hetherington, James P. J.; Stephens, Philip

    2006-01-01

    Effective is a C++ library which provides the user a toolbox to study the effective action of an arbitrary field theory. From the field content, gauge groups and representations an appropriate action is generated symbolically. The effective potential, mass spectrum, field couplings and vacuum expectation values are then obtained automatically; tree level results are obtained analytically while many tools, both numeric and analytic, provide a variety of approaches to deal with the one-loop cor...

  10. Triangular M/G/1-type and tree-like QBD Markov chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Houdt, B.; Leeuwaarden, van J.S.H.

    2009-01-01

    In applying matrix-analytic methods to M/G/1-type and tree-like QBD Markov chains, it is crucial to determine the solution to a (set of) nonlinear matrix equation(s). This is usually done via iterative methods. We consider the highly structured subclass of triangular M/G/1-type and tree-like QBD

  11. Stress wave velocity patterns in the longitudinal-radial plane of trees for defect diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guanghui Li; Xiang Weng; Xiaocheng Du; Xiping Wang; Hailin Feng

    2016-01-01

    Acoustic tomography for urban tree inspection typically uses stress wave data to reconstruct tomographic images for the trunk cross section using interpolation algorithm. This traditional technique does not take into account the stress wave velocity patterns along tree height. In this study, we proposed an analytical model for the wave velocity in the longitudinal–...

  12. Science in the city: Urban trees, forests, and people

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen L. Wolf

    2016-01-01

    The article, intended for professional and manager audiences, is an overview of current research in urban forestry. Topics include tree science, forest risks, forest management and assessment, ecosystem services, and urban socio-ecological systems (including governance and stewardship).

  13. Benefit-based tree valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.G. McPherson

    2007-01-01

    Benefit-based tree valuation provides alternative estimates of the fair and reasonable value of trees while illustrating the relative contribution of different benefit types. This study compared estimates of tree value obtained using cost- and benefit-based approaches. The cost-based approach used the Council of Landscape and Tree Appraisers trunk formula method, and...

  14. Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, Barbara; Mauw, Sjouke; Radomirović, Sasa; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

    2015-01-01

    We provide the first formal foundation of SAND attack trees which are a popular extension of the well-known attack trees. The SAND at- tack tree formalism increases the expressivity of attack trees by intro- ducing the sequential conjunctive operator SAND. This operator enables the modeling of

  15. Advance Liquid Metal Reactor Discrete Dynamic Event Tree/Bayesian Network Analysis and Incident Management Guidelines (Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Groth, Katrina M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cardoni, Jeffrey N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wheeler, Timothy A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self-correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the system's design to manage the accident. Inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, but nonetheless extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety, thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayesian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR-14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Idaho National Laboratory for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  16. Tree manipulation experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishina, K.; Takenaka, C.; Ishizuka, S.; Hashimoto, S.; Yagai, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Some forest operations such as thinning and harvesting management could cause changes in N cycling and N2O emission from soils, since thinning and harvesting managements are accompanied with changes in aboveground environments such as an increase of slash falling and solar radiation on the forest floor. However, a considerable uncertainty exists in effects of thinning and harvesting on N2O fluxes regarding changes in belowground environments by cutting trees. To focus on the effect of changes in belowground environments on the N2O emissions from soils, we conducted a tree manipulation experiment in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) stand without soil compaction and slash falling near the chambers and measured N2O flux at 50 cm and 150 cm distances from the tree trunk (stump) before and after cutting. We targeted 5 trees for the manipulation and established the measurement chambers to the 4 directions around each targeted tree relative to upper slope (upper, left, right, lower positions). We evaluated the effect of logging on the emission by using hierarchical Bayesian model. HB model can evaluate the variability in observed data and their uncertainties in the estimation with various probability distributions. Moreover, the HB model can easily accommodate the non-linear relationship among the N2O emissions and the environmental factors, and explicitly take non-independent data (nested structure of data) for the estimation into account by using random effects in the model. Our results showed tree cutting stimulated N2O emission from soils, and also that the increase of N2O flux depended on the distance from the trunk (stump): the increase of N2O flux at 50 cm from the trunk (stump) was greater than that of 150 cm from the trunk. The posterior simulation of the HB model indicated that the stimulation of N2O emission by tree cut- ting could reach up to 200 cm in our experimental plot. By tree cutting, the estimated N2O emission at 0-40 cm from the trunk doubled

  17. Evaluation of geocast routing trees on random and actual networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Berend Jan; Baratchi, Mitra; Heijenk, Geert; Koucheryavy, Yevgeni; Mamatas, Lefteris; Matta, Ibrahim; Ometov, Aleksandr; Papadimitriou, Panagiotis

    2017-01-01

    Efficient geocast routing schemes are needed to transmit messages to mobile networked devices in geographically scoped areas. To design an efficient geocast routing algorithm a comprehensive evaluation of different routing tree approaches is needed. In this paper, we present an analytical study

  18. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...

  19. Monitoring environmental stress in forest trees using biochemical and physiological markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Minocha; S.C. Minocha; S. Long

    2003-01-01

    Our objective was to determine the usefulness of polyamines, particularly putrescine, and amino acids such as arginine, as foliar indicators of abiotic stress in visually asymptomatic trees. An evaluation of apparently healthy trees is essential in developing risk assessment and stress remediation strategies for forest trees prior to the onset of obvious decline....

  20. Comparison of clinical and analytical performance of the Abbott Realtime High Risk HPV test to the performance of hybrid capture 2 in population-based cervical cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poljak, Mario; Ostrbenk, Anja; Seme, Katja; Ucakar, Veronika; Hillemanns, Peter; Bokal, Eda Vrtacnik; Jancar, Nina; Klavs, Irena

    2011-05-01

    The clinical performance of the Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV (human papillomavirus) test (RealTime) and that of the Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test (hc2) were prospectively compared in the population-based cervical cancer screening setting. In women >30 years old (n = 3,129), the clinical sensitivity of RealTime for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 (CIN2) or worse (38 cases) and its clinical specificity for lesions of less than CIN2 (3,091 controls) were 100% and 93.3%, respectively, and those of hc2 were 97.4% and 91.8%, respectively. A noninferiority score test showed that the clinical specificity (P laboratories. RealTime can be considered to be a reliable and robust HPV assay clinically comparable to hc2 for the detection of CIN2+ lesions in a population-based cervical cancer screening setting.

  1. Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

    2015-01-01

    Background Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. Objective The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. Methods A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Results Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. Conclusion In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association. PMID:26422698

  2. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  3. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  4. Comparing risk factors of HIV among hijra sex workers in Larkana and other cities of Pakistan: an analytical cross sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altaf Arshad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2005, Pakistan was first labeled as a country with concentrated epidemic of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV. This was revealed through second generation surveillance conducted by HIV/AIDS Surveillance Project (HASP. While injection drug users (IDUs were driving the epidemic, subsequent surveys showed that Hijra (transgender sex workers (HSWs were emerging as the second most vulnerable group with an average national prevalence of 6.4%. An exceptionally high prevalence (27.6% was found in Larkana, which is a small town on the right bank of river Indus near the ruins of Mohenjo-Daro in the province of Sindh. This paper presents the risk factors associated with high prevalence of HIV among HSWs in Larkana as compared to other cities of the country. Methods Data were extracted for secondary analysis from 2008 Integrated behavioral and biological survey (IBBS to compare HSWs living in Larkana with those living in other cities including Karachi and Hyderabad in Sindh; Lahore and Faisalabad in Punjab; and Peshawar in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. After descriptive analysis, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors. P value of 0.25 or less was used to include factors in multivariate analysis. Results We compared 199 HSWs from Larkana with 420 HSWs from other cities. The average age of HSWs in Larkana was 26.42 (±5.4 years. Majority were Sindhi speaking (80%, uneducated (68% and unmarried (97%. In univariate analysis, factors associated with higher prevalence of HIV in Larkana included younger age i.e. 20–24 years (OR: 5.8, CI: 2.809–12.15, being unmarried (OR: 2.4, CI: 1.0–5.7, sex work as the only mode of income (OR: 5.5, CI: 3.70–8.2 and longer duration of being involved in sex work 5–10 years (OR: 3.3, CI: 1.7–6.12. In multivariate logistic regression the HSWs from Larkana were more likely to lack knowledge regarding preventive measures against HIV (OR 11.9, CI: 3.4–41.08 and

  5. Steiner trees in industry

    CERN Document Server

    Du, Ding-Zhu

    2001-01-01

    This book is a collection of articles studying various Steiner tree prob­ lems with applications in industries, such as the design of electronic cir­ cuits, computer networking, telecommunication, and perfect phylogeny. The Steiner tree problem was initiated in the Euclidean plane. Given a set of points in the Euclidean plane, the shortest network interconnect­ ing the points in the set is called the Steiner minimum tree. The Steiner minimum tree may contain some vertices which are not the given points. Those vertices are called Steiner points while the given points are called terminals. The shortest network for three terminals was first studied by Fermat (1601-1665). Fermat proposed the problem of finding a point to minimize the total distance from it to three terminals in the Euclidean plane. The direct generalization is to find a point to minimize the total distance from it to n terminals, which is still called the Fermat problem today. The Steiner minimum tree problem is an indirect generalization. Sch...

  6. Visualization of Uncertain Contour Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraus, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Contour trees can represent the topology of large volume data sets in a relatively compact, discrete data structure. However, the resulting trees often contain many thousands of nodes; thus, many graph drawing techniques fail to produce satisfactory results. Therefore, several visualization methods...... were proposed recently for the visualization of contour trees. Unfortunately, none of these techniques is able to handle uncertain contour trees although any uncertainty of the volume data inevitably results in partially uncertain contour trees. In this work, we visualize uncertain contour trees...... by combining the contour trees of two morphologically filtered versions of a volume data set, which represent the range of uncertainty. These two contour trees are combined and visualized within a single image such that a range of potential contour trees is represented by the resulting visualization. Thus...

  7. Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

    2017-11-01

    The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

  8. Analytical precision of the Urolizer for the determination of the BONN-Risk-Index (BRI) for calcium oxalate urolithiasis and evaluation of the influence of 24-h urine storage at moderate temperatures on BRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Wolfgang; Bechler, Robin; Laube, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    Since its first publication in 2000, the BONN-Risk-Index (BRI) has been successfully used to determine the calcium oxalate (CaOx) crystallization risk from urine samples. To date, a BRI-measuring device, the "Urolizer", has been developed, operating automatically and requiring only a minimum of preparation. Two major objectives were pursued: determination of Urolizer precision, and determination of the influence of 24-h urine storage at moderate temperatures on BRI. 24-h urine samples from 52 CaOx stone-formers were collected. A total of 37 urine samples were used for the investigation of Urolizer precision by performing six independent BRI determinations in series. In total, 30 samples were taken for additional investigation of urine storability. Each sample was measured thrice: directly after collection, after 24-h storage at T=21 degrees C, and after 24-h cooling at T=4 degrees C. Outcomes were statistically tested for identity with regard to the immediately obtained results. Repeat measurements for evaluation of Urolizer precision revealed statistical identity of data (p-0.05). 24-h storage of urine at both tested temperatures did not significantly affect BRI (p-0.05). The pilot-run Urolizer shows high analytical reliability. The innovative analysis device may be especially suited for urologists specializing in urolithiasis treatment. The possibility for urine storage at moderate temperatures without loss of analysis quality further demonstrates the applicability of the BRI method.

  9. Generic Ising trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria

    2012-01-01

    The Ising model on a class of infinite random trees is defined as a thermodynamiclimit of finite systems. A detailed description of the corresponding distribution of infinite spin configurations is given. As an application, we study the magnetization properties of such systems and prove that they......The Ising model on a class of infinite random trees is defined as a thermodynamiclimit of finite systems. A detailed description of the corresponding distribution of infinite spin configurations is given. As an application, we study the magnetization properties of such systems and prove...... that they exhibit no spontaneous magnetization. Furthermore, the values of the Hausdorff and spectral dimensions of the underlying trees are calculated and found to be, respectively,¯dh =2 and¯ds = 4/3....

  10. ColorTree: a batch customization tool for phylogenic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Hua; Lercher, Martin J

    2009-07-31

    Genome sequencing projects and comparative genomics studies typically aim to trace the evolutionary history of large gene sets, often requiring human inspection of hundreds of phylogenetic trees. If trees are checked for compatibility with an explicit null hypothesis (e.g., the monophyly of certain groups), this daunting task is greatly facilitated by an appropriate coloring scheme. In this note, we introduce ColorTree, a simple yet powerful batch customization tool for phylogenic trees. Based on pattern matching rules, ColorTree applies a set of customizations to an input tree file, e.g., coloring labels or branches. The customized trees are saved to an output file, which can then be viewed and further edited by Dendroscope (a freely available tree viewer). ColorTree runs on any Perl installation as a stand-alone command line tool, and its application can thus be easily automated. This way, hundreds of phylogenic trees can be customized for easy visual inspection in a matter of minutes. ColorTree allows efficient and flexible visual customization of large tree sets through the application of a user-supplied configuration file to multiple tree files.

  11. Analytic nuclear scattering theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Marzio, F.; University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC

    1999-01-01

    A wide range of nuclear reactions are examined in an analytical version of the usual distorted wave Born approximation. This new approach provides either semi analytic or fully analytic descriptions of the nuclear scattering processes. The resulting computational simplifications, when used within the limits of validity, allow very detailed tests of both nuclear interaction models as well as large basis models of nuclear structure to be performed

  12. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  13. A parallel buffer tree

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sitchinava, Nodar; Zeh, Norbert

    2012-01-01

    We present the parallel buffer tree, a parallel external memory (PEM) data structure for batched search problems. This data structure is a non-trivial extension of Arge's sequential buffer tree to a private-cache multiprocessor environment and reduces the number of I/O operations by the number of...... in the optimal OhOf(psortN + K/PB) parallel I/O complexity, where K is the size of the output reported in the process and psortN is the parallel I/O complexity of sorting N elements using P processors....

  14. Analytical Electron Microscope

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Titan 80-300 is a transmission electron microscope (TEM) equipped with spectroscopic detectors to allow chemical, elemental, and other analytical measurements to...

  15. Public Health Risks of Enterobacterial Isolates Producing Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamases or AmpC β-Lactamases in Food and Food-Producing Animals: An EU Perspective of Epidemiology, Analytical Methods, Risk Factors, and Control Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liebana, Ernesto; Carattoli, Alessandra; Coque, Teresa M.

    2013-01-01

    The blaESBL and blaAmpC genes are spread by plasmid-mediated integrons, insertion sequences, and transposons, some of which are homologous in food animals and humans. Cephalosporin usage in animal production is an important risk factor; restricting such use would be an effective control option....

  16. A stochastic model of nanoparticle self-assembly on Cayley trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazilu, I; Schwen, E M; Banks, W E; Pope, B K; Mazilu, D A

    2015-01-01

    Nanomedicine is an emerging area of medical research that uses innovative nanotechnologies to improve the delivery of therapeutic and diagnostic agents with maximum clinical benefit. We present a versatile stochastic model that can be used to capture the basic features of drug encapsulation of nanoparticles on tree-like synthetic polymers called dendrimers. The geometry of a dendrimer is described mathematically as a Cayley tree. We use our stochastic model to study the dynamics of deposition and release of monomers (simulating the drug molecules) on Cayley trees (simulating dendrimers). We present analytical and Monte Carlo simulation results for the particle density on Cayley trees of coordination number three and four

  17. Embedding complete ternary tree in hypercubes using AVL trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.A. Choudum; I. Raman (Indhumathi)

    2008-01-01

    htmlabstractA complete ternary tree is a tree in which every non-leaf vertex has exactly three children. We prove that a complete ternary tree of height h, TTh, is embeddable in a hypercube of dimension . This result coincides with the result of [2]. However, in this paper, the embedding utilizes

  18. Portraits of Tree Families

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balgooy, van M.M.J.

    1998-01-01

    With the publication of the second volume of the series ‘Malesian Seed Plants’, entitled ‘Portraits of Tree Families’, I would like to refer to the Introduction of the first volume, ‘Spot-characters’ for a historical background and an explanation of the aims of this series. The present book treats

  19. P{owering 'Trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Melia dubia Cav. of Meliaceae is a large deciduous tree. Leaves are compound with toothed leaflets. Flowers are small, greenish-yellow in much-branched inflorescences. Fruits are green, ellipsoidal with a single seed covered by hard portion ( as in a mango fruit) and surrounded by fleshy pulp outside. The bark is bitter ...

  20. Programming macro tree transducers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahr, Patrick; Day, Laurence E.

    2013-01-01

    transducers can be concisely represented in Haskell, and demonstrate the benefits of utilising such an approach with a number of examples. In particular, tree transducers afford a modular programming style as they can be easily composed and manipulated. Our Haskell representation generalises the original...

  1. Chapter 5 - Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2014-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. Extremely high mortality, however, can also be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  2. A Universal Phylogenetic Tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Offner, Susan

    2001-01-01

    Presents a universal phylogenetic tree suitable for use in high school and college-level biology classrooms. Illustrates the antiquity of life and that all life is related, even if it dates back 3.5 billion years. Reflects important evolutionary relationships and provides an exciting way to learn about the history of life. (SAH)

  3. Base tree property

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Balcar, B.; Doucha, Michal; Hrušák, M.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 1 (2015), s. 69-81 ISSN 0167-8094 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100190902 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : forcing * Boolean algebras * base tree Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.614, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11083-013-9316-2

  4. Multiquarks and Steiner trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard, Jean-Marc

    2010-01-01

    A brief review review is presented of models tentatively leading to stable multiquarks. A new attempt is presented, based on a Steiner-tree model of confinement, which is inspired by by QCD. It leads to more attraction than the empirical colour-additive model used in earlier multiquark calculations, and predict several multiquark states in configurations with different flavours.

  5. The Analytical Hierarchy Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    2007-01-01

    The technical note gathers the theory behind the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and present its advantages and disadvantages in practical use.......The technical note gathers the theory behind the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and present its advantages and disadvantages in practical use....

  6. Signals: Applying Academic Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Kimberly E.

    2010-01-01

    Academic analytics helps address the public's desire for institutional accountability with regard to student success, given the widespread concern over the cost of higher education and the difficult economic and budgetary conditions prevailing worldwide. Purdue University's Signals project applies the principles of analytics widely used in…

  7. Analytic Moufang-transformations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paal, Eh.N.

    1988-01-01

    The paper is aimed to be an introduction to the concept of an analytic birepresentation of an analytic Moufang loop. To describe the deviation of (S,T) from associativity, the associators (S,T) are defined and certain constraints for them, called the minimality conditions of (S,T) are established

  8. Quine's "Strictly Vegetarian" Analyticity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Decock, L.B.

    2017-01-01

    I analyze Quine’s later writings on analyticity from a linguistic point of view. In Word and Object Quine made room for a “strictly vegetarian” notion of analyticity. In later years, he developed this notion into two more precise notions, which I have coined “stimulus analyticity” and “behaviorist

  9. Learning analytics dashboard applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verbert, K.; Duval, E.; Klerkx, J.; Govaerts, S.; Santos, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    This article introduces learning analytics dashboards that visualize learning traces for learners and teachers. We present a conceptual framework that helps to analyze learning analytics applications for these kinds of users. We then present our own work in this area and compare with 15 related

  10. Learning Analytics Considered Harmful

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dringus, Laurie P.

    2012-01-01

    This essay is written to present a prospective stance on how learning analytics, as a core evaluative approach, must help instructors uncover the important trends and evidence of quality learner data in the online course. A critique is presented of strategic and tactical issues of learning analytics. The approach to the critique is taken through…

  11. Analytical mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-01-01

    This 43rd Annual Summer Symposium on Analytical Chemistry was held July 24--27, 1990 at Oak Ridge, TN and contained sessions on the following topics: Fundamentals of Analytical Mass Spectrometry (MS), MS in the National Laboratories, Lasers and Fourier Transform Methods, Future of MS, New Ionization and LC/MS Methods, and an extra session. (WET)

  12. Analytical mass spectrometry. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-12-31

    This 43rd Annual Summer Symposium on Analytical Chemistry was held July 24--27, 1990 at Oak Ridge, TN and contained sessions on the following topics: Fundamentals of Analytical Mass Spectrometry (MS), MS in the National Laboratories, Lasers and Fourier Transform Methods, Future of MS, New Ionization and LC/MS Methods, and an extra session. (WET)

  13. Application of system reliability analytical method, GO-FLOW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Takeshi; Fukuto, Junji; Mitomo, Nobuo; Miyazaki, Keiko; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Michiyuki

    1999-01-01

    The Ship Research Institute proceed a developmental study on GO-FLOW method with various advancing functionalities for the system reliability analysis method occupying main parts of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). Here was attempted to intend to upgrade functionality of the GO-FLOW method, to develop an analytical function integrated with dynamic behavior analytical function, physical behavior and probable subject transfer, and to prepare a main accident sequence picking-out function. In 1997 fiscal year, in dynamic event-tree analytical system, an analytical function was developed by adding dependency between headings. In simulation analytical function of the accident sequence, main accident sequence of MRX for improved ship propulsion reactor became possible to be covered perfectly. And, input data for analysis was prepared with a function capable easily to set by an analysis operator. (G.K.)

  14. Tree Transduction Tools for Cdec

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Austin Matthews

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We describe a collection of open source tools for learning tree-to-string and tree-to-tree transducers and the extensions to the cdec decoder that enable translation with these. Our modular, easy-to-extend tools extract rules from trees or forests aligned to strings and trees subject to different structural constraints. A fast, multithreaded implementation of the Cohn and Blunsom (2009 model for extracting compact tree-to-string rules is also included. The implementation of the tree composition algorithm used by cdec is described, and translation quality and decoding time results are presented. Our experimental results add to the body of evidence suggesting that tree transducers are a compelling option for translation, particularly when decoding speed and translation model size are important.

  15. Selecting Landscape Plants: Shade Trees

    OpenAIRE

    Relf, Diane; Appleton, Bonnie Lee, 1948-2012; Close, David

    2015-01-01

    Because of the permanency of trees and their importance in the landscape, care must be taken to select the best species for each situation. This publication goes over how to choose landscape trees that are shade tolerant.

  16. Quo vadis, analytical chemistry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valcárcel, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an open, personal, fresh approach to the future of Analytical Chemistry in the context of the deep changes Science and Technology are anticipated to experience. Its main aim is to challenge young analytical chemists because the future of our scientific discipline is in their hands. A description of not completely accurate overall conceptions of our discipline, both past and present, to be avoided is followed by a flexible, integral definition of Analytical Chemistry and its cornerstones (viz., aims and objectives, quality trade-offs, the third basic analytical reference, the information hierarchy, social responsibility, independent research, transfer of knowledge and technology, interfaces to other scientific-technical disciplines, and well-oriented education). Obsolete paradigms, and more accurate general and specific that can be expected to provide the framework for our discipline in the coming years are described. Finally, the three possible responses of analytical chemists to the proposed changes in our discipline are discussed.

  17. Analytic representations of Yang–Mills amplitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjerrum-Bohr, N.E.J. [Niels Bohr International Academy and Discovery Center, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Bourjaily, Jacob L., E-mail: bourjaily@nbi.ku.dk [Niels Bohr International Academy and Discovery Center, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Damgaard, Poul H. [Niels Bohr International Academy and Discovery Center, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Feng, Bo [Zhejiang Institute of Modern Physics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou City, 310027 (China)

    2016-12-15

    Scattering amplitudes in Yang–Mills theory can be represented in the formalism of Cachazo, He and Yuan (CHY) as integrals over an auxiliary projective space—fully localized on the support of the scattering equations. Because solving the scattering equations is difficult and summing over the solutions algebraically complex, a method of directly integrating the terms that appear in this representation has long been sought. We solve this important open problem by first rewriting the terms in a manifestly Möbius-invariant form and then using monodromy relations (inspired by analogy to string theory) to decompose terms into those for which combinatorial rules of integration are known. The result is the foundations of a systematic procedure to obtain analytic, covariant forms of Yang–Mills tree-amplitudes for any number of external legs and in any number of dimensions. As examples, we provide compact analytic expressions for amplitudes involving up to six gluons of arbitrary helicities.

  18. Adjustable chain trees for proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winter, Pawel; Fonseca, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    A chain tree is a data structure for changing protein conformations. It enables very fast detection of clashes and free energy potential calculations. A modified version of chain trees that adjust themselves to the changing conformations of folding proteins is introduced. This results in much...... tighter bounding volume hierarchies and therefore fewer intersection checks. Computational results indicate that the efficiency of the adjustable chain trees is significantly improved compared to the traditional chain trees....

  19. Introduction to fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, R.E.; Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    An elementary, engineering oriented introduction to fault tree analysis is presented. The basic concepts, techniques and applications of fault tree analysis, FTA, are described. The two major steps of FTA are identified as (1) the construction of the fault tree and (2) its evaluation. The evaluation of the fault tree can be qualitative or quantitative depending upon the scope, extensiveness and use of the analysis. The advantages, limitations and usefulness of FTA are discussed

  20. The Re-Think Tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gear, Jim

    1993-01-01

    The Re-Think Tree is a simple framework to help individuals assess and improve their behaviors related to environmental issues. The branches of the tree in order of priority are refuse, reduce, re-use, and recycle. Roots of the tree include such things as public opinion, education, and watchdog groups. (KS)

  1. The Hopi Fruit Tree Book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyhuis, Jane

    Referring as often as possible to traditional Hopi practices and to materials readily available on the reservation, the illustrated booklet provides information on the care and maintenance of young fruit trees. An introduction to fruit trees explains the special characteristics of new trees, e.g., grafting, planting pits, and watering. The…

  2. Rectilinear Full Steiner Tree Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariasen, Martin

    1999-01-01

    The fastest exact algorithm (in practice) for the rectilinear Steiner tree problem in the plane uses a two-phase scheme: First, a small but sufficient set of full Steiner trees (FSTs) is generated and then a Steiner minimum tree is constructed from this set by using simple backtrack search, dynamic...

  3. Inferences from growing trees backwards

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Green; Kent A. McDonald

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to illustrate how longitudinal stress wave techniques can be useful in tracking the future quality of a growing tree. Monitoring the quality of selected trees in a plantation forest could provide early input to decisions on the effectiveness of management practices, or future utilization options, for trees in a plantation. There will...

  4. Genetic transformation of forest trees

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    In this review, the recent progress on genetic transformation of forest trees were discussed. Its described also, different applications of genetic engineering for improving forest trees or understanding the mechanisms governing genes expression in woody plants. Key words: Genetic transformation, transgenic forest trees, ...

  5. The Problem of Predecessors on Spanning Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Poghosyan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the equiprobable distribution of spanning trees on the square lattice. All bonds of each tree can be oriented uniquely with respect to an arbitrary chosen site called the root. The problem of predecessors is to find the probability that a path along the oriented bonds passes sequentially fixed sites i and j. The conformal field theory for the Potts model predicts the fractal dimension of the path to be 5/4. Using this result, we show that the probability in the predecessors problem for two sites separated by large distance r decreases as P(r ∼ r −3/4. If sites i and j are nearest neighbors on the square lattice, the probability P(1 = 5/16 can be found from the analytical theory developed for the sandpile model. The known equivalence between the loop erased random walk (LERW and the directed path on the spanning tree states that P(1 is the probability for the LERW started at i to reach the neighboring site j. By analogy with the self-avoiding walk, P(1 can be called the return probability. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the theoretical predictions.

  6. TREE SELECTING AND TREE RING MEASURING IN DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sefa Akbulut

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Dendrochronology is a method of dating which makes use of the annual nature of tree growth. Dendrochronology may be divided into a number of subfields, each of which covers one or more aspects of the use of tree ring data: dendroclimatology, dendrogeomorphology, dendrohydrology, dendroecology, dendroarchaelogy, and dendrogylaciology. Basic of all form the analysis of the tree rings. The wood or tree rings can aid to dating past events about climatology, ecology, geology, hydrology. Dendrochronological studies are conducted either on increment cores or on discs. It may be seen abnormalities on tree rings during the measurement like that false rings, missing rings, reaction wood. Like that situation, increment cores must be extracted from four different sides of each tree and be studied as more as on tree.

  7. Tree Colors: Color Schemes for Tree-Structured Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennekes, Martijn; de Jonge, Edwin

    2014-12-01

    We present a method to map tree structures to colors from the Hue-Chroma-Luminance color model, which is known for its well balanced perceptual properties. The Tree Colors method can be tuned with several parameters, whose effect on the resulting color schemes is discussed in detail. We provide a free and open source implementation with sensible parameter defaults. Categorical data are very common in statistical graphics, and often these categories form a classification tree. We evaluate applying Tree Colors to tree structured data with a survey on a large group of users from a national statistical institute. Our user study suggests that Tree Colors are useful, not only for improving node-link diagrams, but also for unveiling tree structure in non-hierarchical visualizations.

  8. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/1fk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nisa M Maruthur

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  Methods: This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Discussion: Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent

  9. Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, N L; Das, A J; Condit, R; Russo, S E; Baker, P J; Beckman, N G; Coomes, D A; Lines, E R; Morris, W K; Rüger, N; Alvarez, E; Blundo, C; Bunyavejchewin, S; Chuyong, G; Davies, S J; Duque, A; Ewango, C N; Flores, O; Franklin, J F; Grau, H R; Hao, Z; Harmon, M E; Hubbell, S P; Kenfack, D; Lin, Y; Makana, J-R; Malizia, A; Malizia, L R; Pabst, R J; Pongpattananurak, N; Su, S-H; Sun, I-F; Tan, S; Thomas, D; van Mantgem, P J; Wang, X; Wiser, S K; Zavala, M A

    2014-03-06

    Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle--particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage--increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the individual tree, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute tree mass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees; at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of individual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level and stand-level productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree's total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth, inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation and plant senescence.

  10. Behavioural analytics: Beyond risk-based MFA

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dlamini, Thandokuhle M

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ]. [16] Verizon, “2016 Data Breach Investigations Report: 89% of breaches had a financial or espionage motive”; http://www.verizonenterprise.com/resources/reports/rp_DBIR_2016_ Report_en_xg.pdf; 2016, accessed [15 August 2016]. [17] S. Ragan, “Linkedin... data breach blamed for multiple secondary compromises”; CSO Online; http://www.csoonline.com/article/3086942/security/linkedin-data- breach-blamed-for-multiple-secondary-compromises.html; 2016, accessed [15 August 2016]. [18] E. Zolfagharifard and E...

  11. Google analytics integrations

    CERN Document Server

    Waisberg, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    A roadmap for turning Google Analytics into a centralized marketing analysis platform With Google Analytics Integrations, expert author Daniel Waisberg shows you how to gain a more meaningful, complete view of customers that can drive growth opportunities. This in-depth guide shows not only how to use Google Analytics, but also how to turn this powerful data collection and analysis tool into a central marketing analysis platform for your company. Taking a hands-on approach, this resource explores the integration and analysis of a host of common data sources, including Google AdWords, AdSens

  12. Environmental effects on pine tree carbon budgets and resistance to bark beetles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Wilkens; Matthew P. Ayres; Peter L. Lorio; John D. Hodges

    1998-01-01

    Our results indicate that increased nutrient availability leads to an increase in growth and a reduction in resin-based defenses.Because of this, we recommend that foresters and planners consider the effect of fertilization and site fertility on both tree growth and SPB risk.Unfortunately, increased tree growth may frequently be associated with increased SPB risk.The...

  13. Wind-Induced Reconfigurations in Flexible Branched Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojo, Oluwafemi; Shoele, Kourosh

    2017-11-01

    Wind induced stresses are the major mechanical cause of failure in trees. We know that the branching mechanism has an important effect on the stress distribution and stability of a tree in the wind. Eloy in PRL 2011, showed that Leonardo da Vinci's original observation which states the total cross section of branches is conserved across branching nodes is the best configuration for resisting wind-induced fracture in rigid trees. However, prediction of the fracture risk and pattern of a tree is also a function of their reconfiguration capabilities and how they mitigate large wind-induced stresses. In this studies through developing an efficient numerical simulation of flexible branched trees, we explore the role of the tree flexibility on the optimal branching. Our results show that the probability of a tree breaking at any point depends on both the cross-section changes in the branching nodes and the level of tree flexibility. It is found that the branching mechanism based on Leonardo da Vinci's original observation leads to a uniform stress distribution over a wide range of flexibilities but the pattern changes for more flexible systems.

  14. Fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-09-01

    Suggestion are made concerning the method of the fault tree analysis, the use of certain symbols in the examination of system failures. This purpose of the fault free analysis is to find logical connections of component or subsystem failures leading to undesirable occurrances. The results of these examinations are part of the system assessment concerning operation and safety. The objectives of the analysis are: systematical identification of all possible failure combinations (causes) leading to a specific undesirable occurrance, finding of reliability parameters such as frequency of failure combinations, frequency of the undesirable occurrance or non-availability of the system when required. The fault tree analysis provides a near and reconstructable documentation of the examination. (orig./HP) [de

  15. Tree-level formalism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandhuber, Andreas; Spence, Bill; Travaglini, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    We review two novel techniques used to calculate tree-level scattering amplitudes efficiently: MHV diagrams, and on-shell recursion relations. For the MHV diagrams, we consider applications to tree-level amplitudes and focus in particular on the N=4 supersymmetric formulation. We also briefly describe the derivation of loop amplitudes using MHV diagrams. For the recursion relations, after presenting their general proof, we discuss several applications to massless theories with and without supersymmetry, to theories with massive particles, and to graviton amplitudes in general relativity. This article is an invited review for a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to 'Scattering amplitudes in gauge theories'. (review)

  16. Tree Rings: Timekeepers of the Past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, R. L.; McGowan, J.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science issues, this booklet describes the uses of tree rings in historical and biological recordkeeping. Separate sections cover the following topics: dating of tree rings, dating with tree rings, tree ring formation, tree ring identification, sample collections, tree ring cross dating, tree…

  17. Wood for the trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Garbutt

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Our paper focuses on the materiality, cultural history and cultural relations of selected artworks in the exhibition Wood for the trees (Lismore Regional Gallery, New South Wales, Australia, 10 June – 17 July 2011. The title of the exhibition, intentionally misreading the aphorism “Can’t see the wood for the trees”, by reading the wood for the resource rather than the collective wood[s], implies conservation, preservation, and the need for sustaining the originating resource. These ideas have particular resonance on the NSW far north coast, a region once rich in rainforest. While the Indigenous population had sustainable practices of forest and land management, the colonists deployed felling and harvesting in order to convert the value of the local, abundant rainforest trees into high-value timber. By the late twentieth century, however, a new wave of settlers launched a protest movements against the proposed logging of remnant rainforest at Terania Creek and elsewhere in the region. Wood for the trees, curated by Gallery Director Brett Adlington, plays on this dynamic relationship between wood, trees and people. We discuss the way selected artworks give expression to the themes or concepts of productive labour, nature and culture, conservation and sustainability, and memory. The artworks include Watjinbuy Marrawilil’s (1980 Carved ancestral figure ceremonial pole, Elizabeth Stops’ (2009/10 Explorations into colonisation, Hossein Valamanesh’s (2008 Memory stick, and AñA Wojak’s (2008 Unread book (in a forgotten language. Our art writing on the works, a practice informed by Bal (2002, Muecke (2008 and Papastergiadis (2004, becomes a conversation between the works and the themes or concepts. As a form of material excess of the most productive kind (Grosz, 2008, p. 7, art seeds a response to that which is in the air waiting to be said of the past, present and future.

  18. Recursive Trees for Practical ORAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moataz Tarik

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a new, general data structure that reduces the communication cost of recent tree-based ORAMs. Contrary to ORAM trees with constant height and path lengths, our new construction r-ORAM allows for trees with varying shorter path length. Accessing an element in the ORAM tree results in different communication costs depending on the location of the element. The main idea behind r-ORAM is a recursive ORAM tree structure, where nodes in the tree are roots of other trees. While this approach results in a worst-case access cost (tree height at most as any recent tree-based ORAM, we show that the average cost saving is around 35% for recent binary tree ORAMs. Besides reducing communication cost, r-ORAM also reduces storage overhead on the server by 4% to 20% depending on the ORAM’s client memory type. To prove r-ORAM’s soundness, we conduct a detailed overflow analysis. r-ORAM’s recursive approach is general in that it can be applied to all recent tree ORAMs, both constant and poly-log client memory ORAMs. Finally, we implement and benchmark r-ORAM in a practical setting to back up our theoretical claims.

  19. Mathematical foundations of event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, Ioannis A.

    1998-01-01

    A mathematical foundation from first principles of event trees is presented. The main objective of this formulation is to offer a formal basis for developing automated computer assisted construction techniques for event trees. The mathematical theory of event trees is based on the correspondence between the paths of the tree and the elements of the outcome space of a joint event. The concept of a basic cylinder set is introduced to describe joint event outcomes conditional on specific outcomes of basic events or unconditional on the outcome of basic events. The concept of outcome space partition is used to describe the minimum amount of information intended to be preserved by the event tree representation. These concepts form the basis for an algorithm for systematic search for and generation of the most compact (reduced) form of an event tree consistent with the minimum amount of information the tree should preserve. This mathematical foundation allows for the development of techniques for automated generation of event trees corresponding to joint events which are formally described through other types of graphical models. Such a technique has been developed for complex systems described by functional blocks and it is reported elsewhere. On the quantification issue of event trees, a formal definition of a probability space corresponding to the event tree outcomes is provided. Finally, a short discussion is offered on the relationship of the presented mathematical theory with the more general use of event trees in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

  20. Making CSB + -Trees Processor Conscious

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Samuel, Michael; Pedersen, Anders Uhl; Bonnet, Philippe

    2005-01-01

    of the CSB+-tree. We argue that it is necessary to consider a larger group of parameters in order to adapt CSB+-tree to processor architectures as different as Pentium and Itanium. We identify this group of parameters and study how it impacts the performance of CSB+-tree on Itanium 2. Finally, we propose......Cache-conscious indexes, such as CSB+-tree, are sensitive to the underlying processor architecture. In this paper, we focus on how to adapt the CSB+-tree so that it performs well on a range of different processor architectures. Previous work has focused on the impact of node size on the performance...... a systematic method for adapting CSB+-tree to new platforms. This work is a first step towards integrating CSB+-tree in MySQL’s heap storage manager....